Sample records for land change modeler

  1. IDRISI Land Change Modeler | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are beingZealand Jump to: navigation, search OpenEIHesperia,IDGWP Wind Farm Jump to: navigation, search NameIDRISI Land

  2. Residential agents and land use change modelling 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fontaine, Corentin M.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Urbanisation is driven by the complex interactions of many physical and human factors where human actions and decisions, individually and collectively, ultimately shape the patterns of urban landscapes. Agentbased modelling ...

  3. Modeling the effect of land cover land use change on estuarine environmental flows 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sahoo, Debabrata

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Environmental flows are important to maintain the ecological integrity of the estuary. In a watershed, it is influenced by land use land cover (LULC) change, climate variability, and water regulations. San Antonio, Texas, ...

  4. Land Use and Land Cover Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, Daniel; Polsky, Colin; Bolstad, Paul V.; Brody, Samuel D.; Hulse, David; Kroh, Roger; Loveland, Thomas; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A contribution to the 3rd National Climate Assessment report, discussing the following key messages: 1. Choices about land-use and land-cover patterns have affected and will continue to affect how vulnerable or resilient human communities and ecosystems are to the effects of climate change. 2. Land-use and land-cover changes affect local, regional, and global climate processes. 3. Individuals, organizations, and governments have the capacity to make land-use decisions to adapt to the effects of climate change. 4. Choices about land use and land management provide a means of reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas levels.

  5. Global Climate Change,Global Climate Change, Land Cover Change, andLand Cover Change, and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Global Climate Change,Global Climate Change, Land Cover Change, andLand Cover Change Changes · Due to ­ Climate Change ­ Land Cover / Land Use Change ­ Interaction of Climate and Land Cover Change · Resolution ­ Space ­ Time Hydro-Climatic Change · Variability vs. Change (Trends) · Point data

  6. Research priorities in land use and land-cover change for the Earth system and integrated assessment modelling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hibbard, Kathy; Janetos, Anthony; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Pongtatz, Julia; Rose, Steven K.; Betts, Richard; Herold, Martin; Feddema, Johannes J.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    ). Copyright ? 2010 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright. KEY WORDS land use; land cover; Earth system models; integrated assessment models; research priorities Received 12 January 2009; Revised 9 March 2010; Accepted 14 March 2010 1. Introduction 1... biogeophysical, socio- economic and human decision-making perspectives. The Earth System Modeling (ESM) and the Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) communities play an impor- tant role in understanding and quantifying Earth system analysis and, specifically...

  7. Assessment of Uncertainties in the Response of the African Monsoon Precipitation to Land Use change simulated by a regional model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Xue, Yongkang; Boone, Aaron; de Sales, Fernando; Neupane, Naresh; Huang, Maoyi; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2014-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

    Land use and land cover over Africa have changed substantially over the last sixty years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties on the effect of these changes on the African Monsoon system and Sahel precipitation using an ensemble of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Although the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubs and an increase in surface air temperature.

  8. Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schmitz, Christoph; van Meijl, Hans; Kyle, G. Page; Nelson, Gerald C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gurgel, Angelo; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; von Lampe, Martin; Wise, Marshall A.; Blanc, Elodie; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Valin, Hugo

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10–25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.

  9. Comparison of land use change models with focus on spatial and temporal frameworks and data issues

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Clarke, Keith

    remote sensing data Adaptation of the land cover classification scheme for County or a small city.g. MEPLAN, Smart Places, INDEX, DRAM/EPAL § CUF 1,2, LUCAS, What If?, UPLAN, LTM, UrbanSim, Clarke Model § Other interesting models UGrow, Smart Growth Index - Research sources: § USFS Report: Data and Data

  10. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    distributions for soybean biodiesel (food fixed) . . . . . .distributions for soybean biodiesel (food not fixed) . . .land use from expanded biodiesel production. Technical

  11. Modeling urban growth and land use/land cover change in the Houston Metropolitan Area from 2002 - 2030

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oguz, Hakan

    2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

    spatially explicit cellular automata model, to simulate future (2002-2030) urban growth in the Houston metropolitan area, one of the fastest growing metropolises in the United States during the past decades. The model is calibrated with historical data...

  12. Soil Carbon Change and Net Energy Associated with Biofuel Production on Marginal Lands: A Regional Modeling Perspective

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bandaru, Varaprasad; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Manowitz, David H.; Link, Robert P.; Zhang, Xuesong; Post, W. M.

    2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The use of marginal lands (MLs) for biofuel production has been contemplated as a promising solution for meeting biofuel demands. However, there have been concerns with spatial location of MLs, their inherent biofuel potential, and possible environmental consequences with the cultivation of energy crops. Here, we developed a new quantitative approach that integrates high-resolution land cover and land productivity maps and uses conditional probability density functions for analyzing land use patterns as a function of land productivity to classify the agricultural lands. We subsequently applied this method to determine available productive croplands (P-CLs) and non-crop marginal lands (NC-MLs) in a nine-county Southern Michigan. Furthermore, Spatially Explicit Integrated Modeling Framework (SEIMF) using EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) was used to understand the net energy (NE) and soil organic carbon (SOC) implications of cultivating different annual and perennial production systems.

  13. Climate Effects of Global Land Cover Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gibbard, S G; Caldeira, K; Bala, G; Phillips, T; Wickett, M

    2005-08-24T23:59:59.000Z

    There are two competing effects of global land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to heating when changing from grass/croplands to forest, and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate in a global land cover change scenario. We have performed coupled land/ocean/atmosphere simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model. We find that replacement of current vegetation by trees on a global basis would lead to a global annual mean warming of 1.6 C, nearly 75% of the warming produced under a doubled CO{sub 2} concentration, while global replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4 C. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming. In particular, high latitude forests probably have a net warming effect on the Earth's climate.

  14. What is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, M. L.; Rajagopalan, K.; Chung, S. H.; Jiang, X.; Harrison, J. H.; Nergui, T.; Guenther, Alex B.; Miller, C.; Reyes, J.; Tague, C. L.; Choate, J. S.; Salathe, E.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Adam, J. C.

    2014-05-16T23:59:59.000Z

    Regional climate change impact (CCI) studies have widely involved downscaling and bias-correcting (BC) Global Climate Model (GCM)-projected climate for driving land surface models. However, BC may cause uncertainties in projecting hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to future climate due to the impaired spatiotemporal covariance of climate variables and a breakdown of physical conservation principles. Here we quantify the impact of BC on simulated climate-driven changes in water variables(evapotranspiration, ET; runoff; snow water equivalent, SWE; and water demand for irrigation), crop yield, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC), nitric oxide (NO) emissions, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) Region. We also quantify the impacts on net primary production (NPP) over a small watershed in the region (HJ Andrews). Simulation results from the coupled ECHAM5/MPI-OM model with A1B emission scenario were firstly dynamically downscaled to 12 km resolutions with WRF model. Then a quantile mapping based statistical downscaling model was used to downscale them into 1/16th degree resolution daily climate data over historical and future periods. Two series climate data were generated according to the option of bias-correction (i.e. with bias-correction (BC) and without bias-correction, NBC). Impact models were then applied to estimate hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to both BC and NBC meteorological datasets. These im20 pact models include a macro-scale hydrologic model (VIC), a coupled cropping system model (VIC-CropSyst), an ecohydrologic model (RHESSys), a biogenic emissions model (MEGAN), and a nutrient export model (Global-NEWS). Results demonstrate that the BC and NBC climate data provide consistent estimates of the climate-driven changes in water fluxes (ET, runoff, and water demand), VOCs (isoprene and monoterpenes) and NO emissions, mean crop yield, and river DIN export over the PNW domain. However, significant differences rise from projected SWE, crop yield from dry lands, and HJ Andrews’s ET between BC and NBC data. Even though BC post-processing has no significant impacts on most of the studied variables when taking PNW as a whole, their effects have large spatial variations and some local areas are substantially influenced. In addition, there are months during which BC and NBC post-processing produces significant differences in projected changes, such as summer runoff. Factor-controlled simulations indicate that BC post-processing of precipitation and temperature both substantially contribute to these differences at region scales. We conclude that there are trade-offs between using BC climate data for offline CCI studies vs. direct modeled climate data. These trade-offs should be considered when designing integrated modeling frameworks for specific applications; e.g., BC may be more important when considering impacts on reservoir operations in mountainous watersheds than when investigating impacts on biogenic emissions and air quality (where VOCs are a primary indicator).

  15. Biofuels and indirect land use change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Biofuels and indirect land use change The case for mitigation October 2011 #12;About this study), Malaysian Palm Oil Board, National Farmers Union, Novozymes, Northeast Biofuels Collaborative, Patagonia Bio contributed views on a confidential basis. #12;1Biofuels and indirect land use change The case for mitigation

  16. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    demand: Comparison of models and results for marginal biofuels production from different feedstocks; EC Joint Research Centre - Institute for Energy:

  17. Tracking Land Cover Change in a Mixed Logit Model: Recognizing Temporal and Spatial Effects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kockelman, Kara M.

    , but high residential densities can impede future development. Model application produces graphic in order to demonstrate compliance with air quality- related planning standards. Moreover, with further

  18. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and W. Tyner (2011). Validating energy-oriented CGE models.Energy Eco- nomics 33 (5), 799–806. Beckman, J. , R. Keeney,Centre - Institute for Energy: Ispra, 2010; p 150. USEPA

  19. Ecosystem feedbacks to climate change in California: Development, testing, and analysis using a coupled regional atmosphere and land-surface model (WRF3-CLM3.5)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Subin, Z.M.; Riley, W.J.; Kueppers, L.M.; Jin, J.; Christianson, D.S.; Torn, M.S.

    2010-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A regional atmosphere model [Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3 (WRF3)] and a land surface model [Community Land Model, version 3.5 (CLM3.5)] were coupled to study the interactions between the atmosphere and possible future California land-cover changes. The impact was evaluated on California's climate of changes in natural vegetation under climate change and of intentional afforestation. The ability of WRF3 to simulate California's climate was assessed by comparing simulations by WRF3-CLM3.5 and WRF3-Noah to observations from 1982 to 1991. Using WRF3-CLM3.5, the authors performed six 13-yr experiments using historical and future large-scale climate boundary conditions from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The land-cover scenarios included historical and future natural vegetation from the Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System-Century 1 (MC1) dynamic vegetation model, in addition to a future 8-million-ha California afforestation scenario. Natural vegetation changes alone caused summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature changes of -0.7 to +1 C in regions without persistent snow cover, depending on the location and the type of vegetation change. Vegetation temperature changes were much larger than the 2-m air temperature changes because of the finescale spatial heterogeneity of the imposed vegetation change. Up to 30% of the magnitude of the summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature increase and 70% of the magnitude of the 1600 local time (LT) vegetation temperature increase projected under future climate change were attributable to the climate-driven shift in land cover. The authors projected that afforestation could cause local 0.2-1.2 C reductions in summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature and 2.0-3.7 C reductions in 1600 LT vegetation temperature for snow-free regions, primarily because of increased evapotranspiration. Because some of these temperature changes are of comparable magnitude to those projected under climate change this century, projections of climate and vegetation change in this region need to consider these climate-vegetation interactions.

  20. A framework for benchmarking land models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Luo, Yiqi; Randerson, J.; Abramowitz, G.; Bacour, C.; Blyth, E.; Carvalhais, N.; Ciais, Philippe; Dalmonech, D.; Fisher, J.B.; Fisher, R.; Friedlingstein, P.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Hoffman, F. M.; Huntzinger, Deborah; Jones, C.; Koven, C.; Lawrence, David M.; Li, D.J.; Mahecha, M.; Niu, S.L.; Norby, Richard J.; Piao, S.L.; Qi, X.; Peylin, P.; Prentice, I.C.; Riley, William; Reichstein, M.; Schwalm, C.; Wang, Y.; Xia, J. Y.; Zaehle, S.; Zhou, X. H.

    2012-10-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Land models, which have been developed by the modeling community in the past few decades to predict future states of ecosystems and climate, have to be critically evaluated for their performance skills of simulating ecosystem responses and feedback to climate change. Benchmarking is an emerging procedure to measure performance of models against a set of defined standards. This paper proposes a benchmarking framework for evaluation of land model performances and, meanwhile, highlights major challenges at this infant stage of benchmark analysis. The framework includes (1) targeted aspects of model performance to be evaluated, (2) a set of benchmarks as defined references to test model performance, (3) metrics to measure and compare performance skills among models so as to identify model strengths and deficiencies, and (4) model improvement. Land models are required to simulate exchange of water, energy, carbon and sometimes other trace gases between the atmosphere and land surface, and should be evaluated for their simulations of biophysical processes, biogeochemical cycles, and vegetation dynamics in response to climate change across broad temporal and spatial scales. Thus, one major challenge is to select and define a limited number of benchmarks to effectively evaluate land model performance. The second challenge is to develop metrics of measuring mismatches between models and benchmarks. The metrics may include (1) a priori thresholds of acceptable model performance and (2) a scoring system to combine data–model mismatches for various processes at different temporal and spatial scales. The benchmark analyses should identify clues of weak model performance to guide future development, thus enabling improved predictions of future states of ecosystems and climate. The near-future research effort should be on development of a set of widely acceptable benchmarks that can be used to objectively, effectively, and reliably evaluate fundamental properties of land models to improve their prediction performance skills.

  1. The land use climate change energy nexus

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dale, Virginia H [ORNL; Efroymson, Rebecca Ann [ORNL; Kline, Keith L [ORNL

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Landscape ecology focuses on the spatial patterns and processes of ecological and human interactions. These patterns and processes are being altered both by changing human resource-management practices and changing climate conditions associated, in part, with increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Dominant resource extraction and land management activities involve energy, and the use of fossil energy is one of the key drivers behind increasing greenhouse gas emissions as well as land-use changes. Alternative energy sources (such as wind, solar, nuclear, and bioenergy) are being explored to reduce greenhouse gas emission rates. Yet, energy production, including alternative-energy options, can have a wide range of effects on land productivity, surface cover, albedo, and other factors that affect carbon, water and energy fluxes and, in turn, climate. Meanwhile, climate influences the potential output, relative efficiencies and sustainability of alternative energy sources. Thus climate change, energy choices, and land-use change are linked, and any analysis in landscape ecology that considers one of these factors should consider them all. This analysis explores the implications of those linkages and points out ecological patterns and processes that may be affected by these interactions.

  2. CARBON SEQUESTRATION THROUGH CHANGES IN LAND USE IN OREGON

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CARBON SEQUESTRATION THROUGH CHANGES IN LAND USE IN OREGON: COSTS, and J. Kadyszewski (Winrock International). 2007. Carbon Sequestration Through Changes in Land Use Curves, and Pilot Actions for Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration in Oregon. Report to Winrock

  3. Interaction effects of climate and land use/land cover change on soil organic carbon sequestration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grunwald, Sabine

    Interaction effects of climate and land use/land cover change on soil organic carbon sequestration carbon sequestration Climate change Soil carbon change Historically, Florida soils stored the largest in Florida (FL) have acted as a sink for carbon (C) over the last 40 years. · Climate interacting with land

  4. Impacts of Land-use Changes on Biofuels ORNL History of Exploring Changes in Land Use in the United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Impacts of Land-use Changes on Biofuels ORNL History of Exploring Changes in Land Use in the United. Building from their work on environmental costs and benefits associated with biofuel production, ORNL positively impact the sustainability of the biofuels industry. Building understanding of land-use change from

  5. Mapping Savanna Land Change of Belize 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wilson, Lauren

    2011-11-24T23:59:59.000Z

    was assessed using a confusion matrix. The results of the research confirmed the capabilities of Landsat imagery for mapping savannas and their land use. The classification of forest and savanna along with major land use pressures from agriculture...

  6. A framework for benchmarking land models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    their inclu- sion in Earth system models (ESMs). State-of-land models cou- pled to Earth system models should simulateland models within Earth system models, however, can help

  7. Simulating the Biogeochemical and Biogeophysical Impacts of Transient Land Cover Change and Wood Harvest in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from 1850 to 2100

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawrence, Peter J.; Feddema, Johannes J.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Meehl, Gerald A.; O’ Neill, Brian C.; Oleson, Keith W.; Levis, Samuel; Lawrence, David M.; Kluzek, Erik; Lindsay, Keith

    2012-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    : Peter J. Lawrence, NCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000. E-mail: lawrence@ucar.edu 1 MAY 2012 L A W R E N C E E T A L . 3071 DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00256.1 #2; 2012 American Meteorological Society et al. 2009) and through changes in energy... and 0.58 grid levels. The 3072 J O U R N A L O F C L I M A T E VOLUME 25 harmonized land use transitions were based around the four simplified land classes of primary vegetation (un- disturbed natural vegetation), secondary vegetation (re- growth...

  8. Global Biofuels Modeling and Land Use

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Biofuels Modeling and Land Use DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Strategic Analysis & Cross-cutting Sustainability March 25 2015 Gbadebo Oladosu...

  9. Development of High Resolution Land Surface Parameters for the Community Land Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ke, Yinghai; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Huang, Maoyi; Coleman, Andre M.; Li, Hongyi; Wigmosta, Mark S.

    2012-11-06T23:59:59.000Z

    There is a growing need for high-resolution land surface parameters as land surface models are being applied at increasingly higher spatial resolution offline as well as in regional and global models. The default land surface parameters for the most recent version of the Community Land Model (i.e. CLM 4.0) are at 0.5° or coarser resolutions, released with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Plant Functional Types (PFTs), vegetation properties such as Leaf Area Index (LAI), Stem Area Index (SAI), and non-vegetated land covers were developed using remotely sensed datasets retrieved in late 1990’s and the beginning of this century. In this study, we developed new land surface parameters for CLM 4.0, specifically PFTs, LAI, SAI and non-vegetated land cover composition, at 0.05° resolution globally based on the most recent MODIS land cover and improved MODIS LAI products. Compared to the current CLM 4.0 parameters, the new parameters produced a decreased coverage by bare soil and trees, but an increased coverage by shrub, grass, and cropland. The new parameters result in a decrease in global seasonal LAI, with the biggest decrease in boreal forests; however, the new parameters also show a large increase in LAI in tropical forest. Differences between the new and the current parameters are mainly caused by changes in the sources of remotely sensed data and the representation of land cover in the source data. Advantages and disadvantages of each dataset were discussed in order to provide guidance on the use of the data. The new high-resolution land surface parameters have been used in a coupled land-atmosphere model (WRF-CLM) applied to the western U.S. to demonstrate their use in high-resolution modeling. A remapping method from the latitude/longitude grid of the CLM data to the WRF grids with map projection was also demonstrated. Future work will include global offline CLM simulations to examine the impacts of source data resolution and subsequent land parameter changes on simulated land surface processes.

  10. Mitigating climate change through land use

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Watson, Andrew

    , offsetting the use of fossil fuels and reducing carbon emissions. Avoiding deforestation, increasing plant storage through afforestation or plant management, and substituting bioenergy for fossil fuels all use increasing deforestation by increasing demand for crop land, undermining the primary GHG emissions reduction

  11. Land use and climate change in Miami-Dade County

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peckett, Haley Rose

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Miami-Dade County, Florida, was one of the earliest jurisdictions to adopt a climate change plan in 1993. Land use features prominently in this plan as a means to reduce greenhouse gases through development patterns that ...

  12. RAAG_A_288073 RAAG.cls January 23, 2008 19:32 Survival Analysis in Land Change Science

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brown, Daniel G.

    P1: tpa RAAG_A_288073 RAAG.cls January 23, 2008 19:32 Survival Analysis in Land Change Science in different space­ time data models, this study aims to establish a framework for applying survival analysis theory and techniques to geographical land change modeling. Our efforts focus on (1) introducing basic

  13. Global Change Biology (2000) 6, 317328 Soil Carbon Sequestration and Land-Use Change: Processes and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Post, Wilfred M.

    2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Global Change Biology (2000) 6, 317­328 Soil Carbon Sequestration and Land-Use Change: Processes in enhanced soil carbon sequestration with changes in land-use and soil management. We review literature, and indicates the relative importance of some factors that influence the rates of organic carbon sequestration

  14. Global Soil Change: Land Use, Soil and Water SWS4231C, SWS5234

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ma, Lena

    of the soil system to withstand global-scale perturbations (e.g., climate or land use change, spread Properties 4. Land Use Change Impacts on Soils 5. Land Use and Agriculture (Irrigation and Fertilization In Soil) 6. Land Use and Soil Erosion 7. Climate Change Impacts on Soils 8. Land Use-Climate

  15. Land-Use Change Data Analysis

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels DataDepartment of Energy Your Density Isn't YourTransport(FactDepartment ofLetter Report:40PM toLEDControl Concept |Energy MicroGrid |Land

  16. IMPACTS OF LAND COVER CHANGE: ENERGY REGULATION, BREADBASKET PRODUCTION, AND PRECIPITATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wisconsin at Madison, University of

    IMPACTS OF LAND COVER CHANGE: ENERGY REGULATION, BREADBASKET PRODUCTION, AND PRECIPITATION;! i! IMPACTS OF LAND COVER CHANGE: ENERGY REGULATION, BREADBASKET PRODUCTION, AND PRECIPITATION Justin of scales through biophysical exchanges of water and energy, this widespread conversion of land cover has

  17. anthropogenic land-use change: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    David M. 35 Quantifying the impact of future land-use changes against increases in GHG concentrations Physics Websites Summary: Quantifying the impact of future land-use...

  18. Bioenergy to Biodiversity: Downscaling scenarios of land use change 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacKenzie, Ian

    2009-11-26T23:59:59.000Z

    Bioenergy crops are a key component of Scotland’s strategy to meet 2050 carbon emissions targets. The introduction of these crops could have large scale impacts on the biodiversity of lowland farmland. These impacts depend on the change in land use...

  19. The Amazon Frontier of Land-Use Change: Croplands and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vermont, University of

    -cropping intensification. Greenhouse gas emissions are estimated for the period 2001­06 due to conversion of natural; Hansen et al. 2008). Economic de- velopment and global markets have driven large-scale conversionsThe Amazon Frontier of Land-Use Change: Croplands and Consequences for Greenhouse Gas Emissions

  20. Land degradation and climate change: a sin of omission?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    not solely responsible for the lack of awareness of the impacts of poor management practices, but we do play temperatures and the consequent increase in evaporative demand. During large rainfall events, land degradation a contributing role. At best, our increasing focus on climate change has an opportunity cost: there is less time

  1. An update on land-ice modeling in the CESM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lipscomb, William H [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2011-01-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Mass loss from land ice, including the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets as well as smaller glacier and ice caps, is making a large and growing contribution to global sea-level rise. Land ice is only beginning to be incorporated in climate models. The goal of the Land Ice Working Group (LIWG) is to develop improved land-ice models and incorporate them in CESM, in order to provide useful, physically-based sea-level predictions. LJWG efforts to date have led to the inclusion of a dynamic ice-sheet model (the Glimmer Community Ice Sheet Model, or Glimmer-CISM) in the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which was released in June 2010. CESM also includes a new surface-mass-balance scheme for ice sheets in the Community Land Model. Initial modeling efforts are focused on the Greenland ice sheet. Preliminary results are promising. In particular, the simulated surface mass balance for Greenland is in good agreement with observations and regional model results. The current model, however, has significant limitations: The land-ice coupling is one-way; we are using a serial version of Glimmer-CISM with the shallow-ice approximation; and there is no ice-ocean coupling. During the next year we plan to implement two-way coupling (including ice-ocean coupling with a dynamic Antarctic ice sheet) with a parallel , higher-order version of Glimmer-CISM. We will also add parameterizations of small glaciers and ice caps. With these model improvements, CESM will be able to simulate all the major contributors to 21st century global sea-level rise. Results of the first round of simulations should be available in time to be included in the Fifth Assessment Report (ARS) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

  2. Attributing land-use change carbon emissions to exported biomass

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Saikku, Laura, E-mail: laura.saikku@helsinki.fi [University of Helsinki, P.O Box 65, 00014 University of Helsinki (Finland); Soimakallio, Sampo, E-mail: sampo.soimakallio@vtt.fi [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O. Box 1000, 02044 VTT (Finland); Pingoud, Kim, E-mail: kim.pingoud@vtt.fi [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O. Box 1000, 02044 VTT (Finland)

    2012-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

    In this study, a simple, transparent and robust method is developed in which land-use change (LUC) emissions are retrospectively attributed to exported biomass products based on the agricultural area occupied for the production. LUC emissions account for approximately one-fifth of current greenhouse gas emissions. Increasing agricultural exports are becoming an important driver of deforestation. Brazil and Indonesia are used as case studies due to their significant deforestation in recent years. According to our study, in 2007, approximately 32% and 15% of the total agricultural land harvested and LUC emissions in Brazil and Indonesia respectively were due to exports. The most important exported single items with regard to deforestation were palm oil for Indonesia and bovine meat for Brazil. To reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions effectively worldwide, leakage of emissions should be avoided. This can be done, for example, by attributing embodied LUC emissions to exported biomass products. With the approach developed in this study, controversial attribution between direct and indirect LUC and amortization of emissions over the product life cycle can be overcome, as the method operates on an average basis and annual level. The approach could be considered in the context of the UNFCCC climate policy instead of, or alongside with, other instruments aimed at reducing deforestation. However, the quality of the data should be improved and some methodological issues, such as the allocation procedure in multiproduct systems and the possible dilution effect through third parties not committed to emission reduction targets, should be considered. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer CO{sub 2} emissions from land use changes are highly important. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Attribution of land use changes for products is difficult. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Simple and robust method is developed to attribute land use change emissions.

  3. Land Use Change in theLand Use Change in the United States:United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, Matthew

    . This would require a 10-fold increase in biomass supply, . . . how much land? Future Biofuel Production Flexibility Program for Bioenergy Producers Section 9011: Biomass Crop Assistance Program Section 9012: Forest of fuel a year; 30% would be about 95 billion gallons, which would require 1 billion tons of biomass

  4. Watershed response and land energy feedbacks under climate change depend upon groundwater.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maxwell, R M; Kollet, S J

    2008-06-10T23:59:59.000Z

    Human induced climate change will have a significant impact on the hydrologic cycle, creating changes in fresh water resources, land cover, and feedbacks that are difficult to characterize, which makes it an issue of global importance. Previous studies have not included subsurface storage in climate change simulations and feedbacks. A variably-saturated groundwater flow model with integrated overland flow and land surface model processes is used to examine the interplay between coupled water and energy processes under climate change conditions. A case study from the Southern Great Plains (SGP) USA, an important agricultural region that is susceptible to drought, is used as the basis for three scenarios simulations using a modified atmospheric forcing dataset to reflect predicted effects due to human-induced climate change. These scenarios include an increase in the atmospheric temperature and variations in rainfall amount and are compared to the present-day climate case. Changes in shallow soil saturation and groundwater levels are quantified as well as the corresponding energy fluxes at the land surface. Here we show that groundwater and subsurface lateral flow processes are critical in understanding hydrologic response and energy feedbacks to climate change and that certain regions are more susceptible to changes in temperature, while others to changes in precipitation. This groundwater control is critical for understanding recharge and drought processes, possible under future climate conditions.

  5. 2000): Soil carbon sequestration and land-use change: processes and potential

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    W. M. Post; K. C. Kwon

    matter dynamics that may result in enhanced soil carbon sequestration with changes in land-use and soil

  6. IPCC estimates for emissions from land-use change, notably deforestation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischlin, Andreas

    IPCC estimates for emissions from land-use change, notably deforestation SYSTEMÃ?KOLOGIE ETHZ., 2008. IPCC estimates for emissions from land-use change, notably deforestation Systems Ecology Report. Photo by Nathalie Baumgartner (2005) #12;A. Fischlin Emissions from land-use change (deforestation) 1

  7. Can we reconcile differences in estimates of carbon fluxes from land-use change and forestry for the 1990s?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    from land-use change and forestry LUC area (100 km 2 yr ?1 )land-use change and forestry Table 6. Sum of Terrestrialfrom land-use change and forestry for the 1990s? A. Ito 1 ,

  8. FINAL REPORT: An Integrated Inter-temporal Analysis of Land Use Change in Forestry and Agriculture: An Assessment of the Influence of Technological Change on Carbon Sequestration and Land Use.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brent Sohngen

    2008-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This project built a global land use model to examine the implications of land based carbon sequestration on land uses. The model also can be used to assess the costs of different land-based actions to reduce carbon emissions.

  9. Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB). Users' manual and technical documentation.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mueller, S; Dunn, JB; Wang, M (Energy Systems); (Univ. of Illinois at Chicago)

    2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

    The Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB) calculates carbon emissions from land use change (LUC) for four different ethanol production pathways including corn grain ethanol and cellulosic ethanol from corn stover, miscanthus, and switchgrass. This document discusses the version of CCLUB released May 31, 2012 which includes corn, as did the previous CCLUB version, and three cellulosic feedstocks: corn stover, miscanthus, and switchgrass. CCLUB calculations are based upon two data sets: land change areas and above- and below-ground carbon content. Table 1 identifies where these data are stored and used within the CCLUB model, which is built in MS Excel. Land change area data is from Purdue University's Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) economic model. Section 2 describes the GTAP data CCLUB uses and how these data were modified to reflect shrubland transitions. Feedstock- and spatially-explicit below-ground carbon content data for the United States were generated with a surrogate model for CENTURY's soil organic carbon sub-model (Kwon and Hudson 2010) as described in Section 3. CENTURY is a soil organic matter model developed by Parton et al. (1987). The previous CCLUB version used more coarse domestic carbon emission factors. Above-ground non-soil carbon content data for forest ecosystems was sourced from the USDA/NCIAS Carbon Online Estimator (COLE) as explained in Section 4. We discuss emission factors used for calculation of international greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Section 5. Temporal issues associated with modeling LUC emissions are the topic of Section 6. Finally, in Section 7 we provide a step-by-step guide to using CCLUB and obtaining results.

  10. Climate and Land Use Change Processes in East Africa While some regions of East Africa are being preserved as natural areas, others, including the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Climate and Land Use Change Processes in East Africa While some regions of East Africa are being to agriculture. Some members of the Maasai tribe, traditionally a pastoral people, are changing to changes in climate. The land use box will involve further modeling of the effects of these concurrent

  11. Climate Change Mitigation Through Land-Use Measures in the Agriculture...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Land-Use Measures in the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Climate Change Mitigation Through Land-Use Measures in the...

  12. Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Torn, Margaret S.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison M.; Chini, Louise M.; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter; Hurtt, George; Wise, Marshall A.

    2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standard RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 °C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCP’s, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.

  13. Vectorizing the Community Land Model (CLM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Vertenstein, Mariana [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Kitabata, Hideyuki [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Japan; White III, James B [ORNL

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper we describe our extensive efforts to rewrite the Community Land Model (CLM) so that it provides good vector performance on the Earth Simulator in Japan and the Cray X1 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. We present the technical details of the old and new internal data structures, the required code reorganization, and the resulting performance improvements. We describe and compare the performance and scaling of the final CLM Version 3.0 (CLM3.0) on the IBM Power4, the Earth Simulator, and the Cray X1. At 64 processors, the performance of the model is similar on the IBM Power4, the Earth Simulator, and the Cray X1. However, the Cray X1 offers the best performance of all three platforms tested from 4 to 64 processors when OpenMP is used. Moreover, at low processor counts (16 or fewer), the model performs significantly better on the Cray X1 than on the other platforms. The vectorized version of CLM was publicly released by the National Center for Atmospheric Research as the standalone CLM3.0, as a part of the new Community Atmosphere Model Version 3.0 (CAM3.0), and as a component of the Community Climate System Model Version 3.0 (CCSM3.0) on June 23, 2004.

  14. Quantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land Use Change GHG Emissions

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Plenary V: Biofuels and Sustainability: Acknowledging Challenges and Confronting MisconceptionsQuantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land Use Change GHG EmissionsJennifer B....

  15. A Global Land System Framework for Integrated Climate-Change Assessments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schlosser, C. Adam

    Land ecosystems play a major role in the global cycles of energy, water, carbon and nutrients. A Global Land System (GLS) framework has been developed for the Integrated Global Systems Model Version 2 (IGSM2) to simulate ...

  16. Integrated Dynamic Gloabal Modeling of Land Use, Energy and Economic Growth

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Atul Jain, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL

    2009-10-14T23:59:59.000Z

    The overall objective of this collaborative project is to integrate an existing general equilibrium energy-economic growth model with a biogeochemical cycles and biophysical models in order to more fully explore the potential contribution of land use-related activities to future emissions scenarios. Land cover and land use change activities, including deforestation, afforestation, and agriculture management, are important source of not only CO2, but also non-CO2 GHGs. Therefore, contribution of land-use emissions to total emissions of GHGs is important, and consequently their future trends are relevant to the estimation of climate change and its mitigation. This final report covers the full project period of the award, beginning May 2006, which includes a sub-contract to Brown University later transferred to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) when Co-PI Brian O'Neill changed institutional affiliations.

  17. Improving land-surface model hydrology: Is an explicit aquifer model better than a deeper soil profile?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    land-surface model hydrology: Is an explicit aquifer modelAL. : LAND-SURFACE MODEL HYDROLOGY Changnon, S. , et al. (land-surface model hydrology: Is an explicit aquifer model

  18. Economic and Physical Modeling of Land Use in GCAM 3.0 and an Application to Agricultural Productivity, Land, and Terrestrial Carbon

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wise, Marshall A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Edmonds, James A.

    2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We explore the impact of changes in agricultural productivity on global land use and terrestrial carbon using the new agriculture and land use modeling approach developed for Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. This approach models economic land use decisions with regional, physical, and technological specificity while maintaining economic and physical integration with the rest of the GCAM model. Physical land characteristics and quantities are tracked explicitly, and crop production practices are modeled discretely to facilitate coupling with physical models. Economic land allocation is modeled with non-linear functions in a market equilibrium rather than through a constrained optimization. In this paper, we explore three scenarios of future agriculture productivity in all regions of the globe over this century, ranging from a high growth to a zero growth level. The higher productivity growth scenario leads to lower crop prices, increased production of crops in developing nations, preservation of global forested lands and lower terrestrial carbon emissions. The scenario with no productivity improvement results in higher crop prices, an expansion of crop production in the developed world, loss of forested lands globally, and higher terrestrial carbon emissions.

  19. Involving Geospatial Information in the Analysis of Land-Cover Change along the Tanzania Coast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Y.Q. "Yeqiao"

    Involving Geospatial Information in the Analysis of Land-Cover Change along the Tanzania Coast.1080/08920750590883132 Involving Geospatial Information in the Analysis of Land-Cover Change along the Tanzania Coast YEQIAO WANG and the area of woodland interspersed with agriculture increased. This study demonstrates how geospatial

  20. Soil carbon sequestration and land-use change: processes and potential

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Soil carbon sequestration and land-use change: processes and potential W . M . P O S T * and K . C that may result in enhanced soil carbon sequestration with changes in land-use and soil management. We carbon accumulation. This data summary provides a guide to approximate rates of SOC sequestration

  1. China's changing landscape during the 1990s: Large-scale land transformations estimated with satellite data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    China's changing landscape during the 1990s: Large-scale land transformations estimated January 2005. [1] Land-cover changes in China are being powered by demand for food for its growing increased by 2.99 million hectares and urban areas increased by 0.82 million hectares. In northern China

  2. Coupling GIS and LCA for biodiversity assessments of land use: Part 1: Inventory modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Geyer, Roland; Stoms, David M.; Lindner, Jan P.; Davis, Frank W.; Wittstock, Bastian

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of land use Part 1: Inventory modeling Roland Geyer & Davidthe use of GIS-based inventory modeling to generatedemonstrated that GIS-based inventory modeling of land use

  3. Impact of land use change on the local climate over the Tibetan Plateau

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jin, J.; Lu, S.; Li, S.; Miller, N.L.

    2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Observational data show that the remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) has a significant downward trend over the east Tibetan Plateau (TP), while a warming trend is found in the same area. Further analysis indicates that this warming trend mainly results from the nighttime warming. The Single-Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM) version 3.1 developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research is used to investigate the role of land use change in the TP local climate system and isolate the contribution of land use change to the warming. Two sets of SCAM simulations were performed at the Xinghai station that is located near the center of the TP Sanjiang (three rivers) Nature Reserve where the downward LAI trend is largest. These simulations were forced with the high and low LAIs. The modeling results indicate that, when the LAI changes from high to low, the daytime temperature has a slight decrease, while the nighttime temperature increases significantly, which is consistent with the observations. The modeling results further show that the lower surface roughness length plays a significant role in affecting the nighttime temperature increase.

  4. Evaluating runoff simulations from the Community Land Model 4.0 using observations from flux towers and a mountainous watershed

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Land Model (CLM) is the land component within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) (formerly known earth system model b

  5. Hydrology: The Influence of Climate Change and/or Land Cover/Use Change Steven R. Fassnacht, Colorado State University

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hydrology: The Influence of Climate Change and/or Land Cover/Use Change Steven R. Fassnacht. Precipitation and temperature are the main drivers of hydrological systems, which influence water availability in those temperatures has decreased. Hydrologic changes are occurring due to a changing climate. For snow

  6. How emissions, climate, and land use change will impact mid-century air quality over the United States: a focus on effects at national parks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Val Martin, M.

    We use a global coupled chemistry–climate–land model (CESM) to assess the integrated effect of climate, emissions and land use changes on annual surface O[subscript 3] and PM[subscript 2.5] in the United States with a focus ...

  7. Managing United States Public Lands in Response to Climate Change: A View From the Ground Up

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neff, Jason

    on public lands. Though climate change is now well recognized by federal agencies and their local land Federal agencies Á Forestry Á Fuels management Á Decision making Introduction Increases in the atmospheric ranging from renewable energy standards to emissions trading schemes, voluntary projects set up

  8. Assessing Naturalness in Northern Great Lakes Forests Based on Historical Land-Cover and Vegetation Changes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    was developed to assess to what degree landscapes represent a natural state. Protected areas are often regarded Land-use history Á Land-use change Á Naturalness Á Logging Á Great Lakes Á Protected areas Introduction the question to what degree protected areas represent a natural state. To assess this question conservation

  9. Changes in ecosystem services and runoff due to land use change in the watersheds of San Antonio, Texas

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Harris, Heather Grace

    2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    service valuation model to each of the land use classes over the discreet time periods. Hydrologic peak flow models using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number Method were developed and applied to each watershed for each discreet time period...

  10. Land Use Change Detection of Lowland Savanna in Belize 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Long

    2012-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

    Savanna ecosystems cover one fifth of the earth’s usable land and are home to billions of people and species. The ecosystem is threatened by human activities to a large extent, for instance, by grazing livestock, agriculture and fire management...

  11. Simulated watershed responses to land cover changes using the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tarboton, David

    Simulated watershed responses to land cover changes using the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation Old Main Hill, Logan, UT, 84322-8200, USA Abstract: In this work, we used the Regional Hydro

  12. The Community Land Model and Its Climate Statistics as a Component of the Community Climate System Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoffman, Forrest M.

    to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC; i.e., the followThe Community Land Model and Its Climate Statistics as a Component of the Community Climate System carried out with the new version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). This paper reports

  13. The Potential Impact of Climate Change in the Norfolk Arable Land Management Initiative

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feigon, Brooke

    to assess the effects of climate change on agriculture, parts of the sector will be adversely affectedThe Potential Impact of Climate Change in the Norfolk Arable Land Management Initiative (NALMI-Mortlock, Queens University, Belfast * Contact: d.viner@uea.ac.uk C R U This poster presents climate change

  14. Developing a TeraGrid Based Land Surface Hydrology and Weather Modeling Interface

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jiang, Wen

    Developing a TeraGrid Based Land Surface Hydrology and Weather Modeling Interface Hsin-I Chang1 iclimate@purdue.edu -------------------- -------------------- 1 INTRODUCTION Real world hydrologic cyberinfrastructure (CI) has been articulated in many workshops and meetings of the environmental and hydrologic

  15. On linking an Earth system model to the equilibrium carbon representation of an economically optimizing land use model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Calvin, Katherine V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Mao, Jiafu; Patel, Pralit L.; Shi, Xiaoying; Thomson, Allison M.; Thornton, Peter E.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Human activities are significantly altering biogeochemical cycles at the global scale, posing a significant problem for earth system models (ESMs), which may incorporate static land-use change inputs but do not actively simulate policy or economic forces. One option to address this problem is a to couple an ESM with an economically oriented integrated assessment model. Here we have implemented and tested a coupling mechanism between the carbon cycles of an ESM (CLM) and an integrated assessment (GCAM) model, examining the best proxy variables to share between the models, and quantifying our ability to distinguish climate- and land-use-driven flux changes. CLM’s net primary production and heterotrophic respiration outputs were found to be the most robust proxy variables by which to manipulate GCAM’s assumptions of long-term ecosystem steady state carbon, with short-term forest production strongly correlated with long-term biomass changes in climate-change model runs. By leveraging the fact that carbon-cycle effects of anthropogenic land-use change are short-term and spatially limited relative to widely distributed climate effects, we were able to distinguish these effects successfully in the model coupling, passing only the latter to GCAM. By allowing climate effects from a full earth system model to dynamically modulate the economic and policy decisions of an integrated assessment model, this work provides a foundation for linking these models in a robust and flexible framework capable of examining two-way interactions between human and earth system processes.

  16. Comparing and modeling land use organization in cities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lenormand, Maxime; Cantú-Ros, Oliva G; Louail, Thomas; Herranz, Ricardo; Barthelemy, Marc; Frías-Martínez, Enrique; Miguel, Maxi San; Ramasco, José J

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The advent of geolocated ICT technologies opens the possibility of exploring how people use space in cities, bringing an important new tool for urban scientists and planners, especially for regions where data is scarce or not available. Here we apply a functional network approach to determine land use patterns from mobile phone records. The versatility of the method allows us to run a systematic comparison between Spanish cities of various sizes. The method detects four major land use types that correspond to different temporal patterns. The proportion of these types, their spatial organization and scaling show a strong similarity between all cities that breaks down at a very local scale, where land use mixing is specific to each urban area. Finally, we introduce a model inspired by Schelling's segregation, able to explain and reproduce these results with simple interaction rules between different land uses.

  17. IEEE JOURNAL OF SELECTED TOPICS IN APPLIED EARTH OBSERVATIONS AND REMOTE SENSING, VOL. 3, NO. 3, SEPTEMBER 2010 219 Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use Changes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liang, Shunlin

    governed by eco- nomic development and air pollution regulations [3]. Variations in incident solar, SEPTEMBER 2010 219 Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use Changes on Land Surface Radiation and Energy Budgets Abstract--Land surface radiation and energy budgets are critical to address a variety

  18. From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Di Vittorio, Alan; Chini, Louise M.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Truesdale, John E.; Craig, Anthony P.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Hurtt, George; Thornton, Peter E.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-11-27T23:59:59.000Z

    Climate projections depend on scenarios of fossil fuel emissions and land use change, and the IPCC AR5 parallel process assumes consistent climate scenarios across Integrated Assessment and Earth System Models (IAMs and ESMs). To facilitate consistency, CMIP5 used a novel land use harmonization to provide ESMs with seamless, 1500-2100 land use trajectories generated by historical data and four IAMs. However, we have identified and partially addressed a major gap in the CMIP5 land coupling design. The CMIP5 Community ESM (CESM) global afforestation is only 22% of RCP4.5 afforestation from 2005 to 2100. Likewise, only 17% of the Global Change Assessment Model’s (GCAM’s) 2040 RCP4.5 afforestation signal, and none of the pasture loss, were transmitted to CESM within a newly integrated model. This is a critical problem because afforestation is necessary for achieving the RCP4.5 climate stabilization. We attempted to rectify this problem by modifying only the ESM component of the integrated model, enabling CESM to simulate 66% of GCAM’s afforestation in 2040, and 94% of GCAM’s pasture loss as grassland and shrubland losses. This additional afforestation increases vegetation carbon gain by 19 PgC and decreases atmospheric CO2 gain by 8 ppmv from 2005 to 2040, implying different climate scenarios between CMIP5 GCAM and CESM. Similar inconsistencies likely exist in other CMIP5 model results, primarily because land cover information is not shared between models, with possible contributions from afforestation exceeding model-specific, potentially viable forest area. Further work to harmonize land cover among models will be required to adequately rectify this problem.

  19. ModelingLandBiogeochemistry Term Spring 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ma, Lena

    of Earth system models and serve to represent exchange of energy (heat radiation momentum), water, carbon

  20. HOW THE BIOECONOMY COULD CHANGE LAND OWNERSHIP AND Mike Duffy1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Duffy, Michael D.

    HOW THE BIOECONOMY COULD CHANGE LAND OWNERSHIP AND VALUES Mike Duffy1 Agriculture is undergoing a fundamental change based on the move toward a bioeconomy. Currently the bioeconomy consists primarily of fuels stages of development. The bioeconomy has been described as "nothing less than a revolution in the way

  1. What Drives Land Cover Change in Eastern Escarpment of Wello, Ethiopia?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richner, Heinz

    to these changes. Agricultural activity and land cover change due to human ac- tions in North Wello have been) The demand for large· agricultural produce (status symbol) Absence of new· technology for intensification deforestation, hillside area closure, expansion of foot slope ravine/wasteland, soil conservation terraces

  2. RESEARCH ARTICLE Impacts of changing climate and land use on vegetation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bern, Universität

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Impacts of changing climate and land use on vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean coast and in regions that are expected to experience a mediterranean-type climate in the future. Samartin Á O. Heiri Á W. Tinner Institute of Plant Sciences and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research

  3. Baselines For Land-Use Change In The Tropics: Application To Avoided Deforestation Projects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    in Mexico: making carbon sequestration a by-product ofthe area of the pilot carbon sequestration projects in theseLUCS = Land Use and Carbon Sequestration model, and GEOMOD =

  4. Integrated Assessment Modeling of Carbon Sequestration and Land Use Emissions Using Detailed Model Results and Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dr. Atul Jain

    2005-04-17T23:59:59.000Z

    This report outlines the progress on the development and application of Integrated Assessment Modeling of Carbon Sequestrations and Land Use Emissions supported by the DOE Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER), U.S. Department of Energy, Grant No. DOE-DE-FG02-01ER63069. The overall objective of this collaborative project between the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was to unite the latest advances in carbon cycle research with scientifically based models and policy-related integrated assessment tools that incorporate computationally efficient representations of the latest knowledge concerning science and emission trajectories, and their policy implications. As part of this research we accomplished the following tasks that we originally proposed: (1) In coordination with LLNL and ORNL, we enhanced the Integrated Science Assessment Model's (ISAM) parametric representation of the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycles that better represent spatial and seasonal variations, which are important to study the mechanisms that influence carbon sequestration in the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems; (2) Using the MiniCAM modeling capability, we revised the SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios; IPCC, 2000) land use emission scenarios; and (3) On the application front, the enhanced version of ISAM modeling capability is applied to understand how short- and long-term natural carbon fluxes, carbon sequestration, and human emissions contribute to the net global emissions (concentrations) trajectories required to reach various concentration (emission) targets. Under this grant, 21 research publications were produced. In addition, this grant supported a number of graduate and undergraduate students whose fundamental research was to learn a disciplinary field in climate change (e.g., ecological dynamics and ocean circulations) and then complete research on how this field could be linked to the other factors we need to consider in its dynamics (e.g., land use, ocean and terrestrial carbon sequestration and climate change).

  5. Can remote sensing of land cover improve species distribution modelling?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bradley, Bethany

    COMMENTARY Can remote sensing of land cover improve species distribution modelling? Remote sensing- guish among broad classes of vegetation. However, the applicability of remote sensing to classification like from remote sensing ­ a map of tree species ­ and what can be delivered ­ a map of forest types

  6. Modeling the interaction between land surface and groundwater

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nebraska-Lincoln, University of

    % of GW for irrigation. Groundwater was managed separately. GW systems and land surface intimately and human factors on GW systems. GW irrigation capacity and efficiency based on a watershed scale. How much-ground water models Irrigation efficiency Materials and methods Development of SGWM #12;Background Groundwater

  7. A Markov model of land use dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Campillo, Fabien; Raherinirina, Angelo; Rakotozafy, Rivo

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The application of the Markov chain to modeling agricultural succession is well known. In most cases, the main problem is the inference of the model, i.e. the estimation of the transition matrix. In this work we present methods to estimate the transition matrix from historical observations. In addition to the estimator of maximum likelihood (MLE), we also consider the Bayes estimator associated with the Jeffreys prior. This Bayes estimator will be approximated by a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. We also propose a method based on the sojourn time to test the adequation of Markov chain model to the dataset.

  8. The impact of climate, CO2, nitrogen deposition and land use change on simulated contemporary global river flow

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoffman, Forrest M.

    The impact of climate, CO2, nitrogen deposition and land use change on simulated contemporary., 38, L08704, doi:10.1029/ 2011GL046773. 1. Introduction [2] Climate change and human activities and Fung [2008] found that climate and land use change play more important roles than the stomatal closure

  9. A Conceptual Framework for Estimating Bioenerg-Related Land-Use Change and Its Impacts over Time

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Delucchi, Mark

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    bioenergy program” land-use baseline (i.e. , one in which prices,BIOENERGY POLICIES ON CLIMATE AND CLIMATE IMPACTS POLICY ACTION ENERGY SYSTEMS MATERIALS LAND USE, ECOSYSTEMS ECONOMIC SYSTEM (PRICES)Prices, yields, supply curves, and land uses can change over time, year-by-year, in the “with bioenergy

  10. Impact of Agricultural Practice on Regional Climate in a CoupledLand Surface Mesoscale Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooley, H.S.; Riley, W.J.; Torn, M.S.; He, Y.

    2004-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The land surface has been shown to form strong feedbacks with climate due to linkages between atmospheric conditions and terrestrial ecosystem exchanges of energy, momentum, water, and trace gases. Although often ignored in modeling studies, land management itself may form significant feedbacks. Because crops are harvested earlier under drier conditions, regional air temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture, for example, affect harvest timing, particularly of rain-fed crops. This removal of vegetation alters the land surface characteristics and may, in turn, affect regional climate. We applied a coupled climate(MM5) and land-surface (LSM1) model to examine the effects of early and late winter wheat harvest on regional climate in the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility in the Southern Great Plains, where winter wheat accounts for 20 percent of the land area. Within the winter wheat region, simulated 2 m air temperature was 1.3 C warmer in the Early Harvest scenario at mid-day averaged over the two weeks following harvest. Soils in the harvested area were drier and warmer in the top 10 cm and wetter in the 10-20 cm layer. Midday soils were 2.5 C warmer in the harvested area at mid-day averaged over the two weeks following harvest. Harvest also dramatically altered latent and sensible heat fluxes. Although differences between scenarios diminished once both scenarios were harvested, the short-term impacts of land management on climate were comparable to those from land cover change demonstrated in other studies.

  11. Land Cover Change of Louisiana and Mississippi produced by Hurricane Katrina

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilbes, Fernando

    Land Cover Change of Louisiana and Mississippi produced by Hurricane Katrina WILMA N. PABÓN RAMÍREZ of the strongest and most devastating hurricanes in the history of the United States: the hurricane Katrina. INTRODUCTION Hurricane Katrina is the sixth strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded and is the third

  12. Pressure-State-Response in Land Resource Changes, Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richner, Heinz

    Pressure-State-Response in Land Resource Changes, Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia Birru Yitaferu, Amhara Regional Agricultural Research Institute, Ethiopia; Hans Hurni, Centre for Development and Environment (CDE), University of Bern, Switzerland; Gete Zeleke, Global Mountain Program, Ethiopia Lake Tana Basin (LTB

  13. Hydraulic Effects of Changes in Bottom-Land Vegetation on Three

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hydraulic Effects of Changes in Bottom-Land Vegetation on Three Major Floods, Gila RiverKelvey, Director Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Burkham, D. E. 1927 Hydraulic effects 19.16:655-J 1. Gila River-Floods. 2. Hydraulics. 3. Botany-Ecology-Gila River. 1. Title: Hydraulic

  14. Publications on Land Use/Cover Change and Deforestation Peer-Reviewed Articles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lopez-Carr, David

    Publications on Land Use/Cover Change and Deforestation Peer-Reviewed Articles Pricope, N. G., G. López-Carr, D. Redo, M. Bonilla, M. Levy (2013). Deforestation and reforestation of Latin America and the Caribbean (2001-2010). Biotropica. 45(2): 262-271. López-Carr, D. and J. Burgdorfer (2013) "Deforestation

  15. Land Use Change Effects on Forest Carbon Cycling Throughout the Southern United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and deforestation on carbon cycling in forest floor and soil from 1900 to 2050 throughout 13 states in the southern because afforestation causes a gradual gain in carbon stocks for many decades, while deforestation causes Tg C, and deforestation caused emission of 49 Tg C. However, the net effect of land use change

  16. Climate Policy 3 (2003) 149157 The climatic impacts of land surface change and carbon

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pielke, Roger A.

    recognize that carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere can reduce the build-up of carbon dioxide of the surface energy budget can affect the local, regional, and global climate. Given the goal of mitigatingClimate Policy 3 (2003) 149­157 The climatic impacts of land surface change and carbon management

  17. Energy and greenhouse gas emission effects of corn and cellulosic ethanol with technology improvements and land use changes.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, M.; Han, J.; Haq, Z; Tyner, .W.; Wu, M.; Elgowainy, A. (Energy Systems)

    2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Use of ethanol as a transportation fuel in the United States has grown from 76 dam{sup 3} in 1980 to over 40.1 hm{sup 3} in 2009 - and virtually all of it has been produced from corn. It has been debated whether using corn ethanol results in any energy and greenhouse gas benefits. This issue has been especially critical in the past several years, when indirect effects, such as indirect land use changes, associated with U.S. corn ethanol production are considered in evaluation. In the past three years, modeling of direct and indirect land use changes related to the production of corn ethanol has advanced significantly. Meanwhile, technology improvements in key stages of the ethanol life cycle (such as corn farming and ethanol production) have been made. With updated simulation results of direct and indirect land use changes and observed technology improvements in the past several years, we conducted a life-cycle analysis of ethanol and show that at present and in the near future, using corn ethanol reduces greenhouse gas emission by more than 20%, relative to those of petroleum gasoline. On the other hand, second-generation ethanol could achieve much higher reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. In a broader sense, sound evaluation of U.S. biofuel policies should account for both unanticipated consequences and technology potentials. We maintain that the usefulness of such evaluations is to provide insight into how to prevent unanticipated consequences and how to promote efficient technologies with policy intervention.

  18. Connecting seas: western Palaearctic continental flyway for water birds in the perspective of changing land use

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kleyer, Michael

    of changing land use and climate M E N N O B A R T R . VA N E E R D E N *, R U D O L F H . D R E N T w, J U L the tundra and taiga belts of Russia with north-west Europe is the major migratory avenue for an estimated 9; accepted 24 January 2005 Introduction Profound changes have occurred in the European landscape during

  19. Risk Analysis for Water Resources Under Climate Change, Population Growth, and Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kiparsky, Michael

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2006). Climate Change Impacts on Water for Agriculture in2006). Climate Change Impacts on Water for Agriculture infuture climate change impacts on water for agriculture and

  20. Coupling the high-complexity land surface model ACASA to the mesoscale model WRF

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pyles, R. D.

    In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is coupled with the Advanced Canopy–Atmosphere–Soil Algorithm (ACASA), a high-complexity land surface model. Although WRF is a state-of-the-art regional ...

  1. Coupling the High Complexity Land Surface Model ACASA to the Mesoscale Model WRF

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xu, L.

    In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is coupled with the Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil Algorithm (ACASA), a high complexity land surface model. Although WRF is a state-of-the-art regional ...

  2. A resource complex for Sandy Neck Beach : an exploration in building on an ever-changing land

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Solarz, Cynthia L. (Cynthia Lynne)

    1987-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis is an exploration into a spit of land, called Sandy Neck Beach on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. It is a barrier beach system which is experiencing many changes. These changes are manifest not only in its physical ...

  3. A new GIS toolbox for integrating massive heterogeneous GIS data for land use change analysis A new GIS toolbox for integrating

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Köbben, Barend

    to the driving forces influencing the usage of agricultural land, while land use must suit the natural conditions.laggner@ti.bund.de Abstract Agricultural land use in Germany and related im- pacts on the environment and the use of natural and land use changes are re- lated to environmental impacts like groundwater pollution, greenhouse gas

  4. The impact of land use change on migrant birds in the Sahel

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adams, William M.; Small, Robert D. S.; Vickery, Juliet A.

    2014-07-17T23:59:59.000Z

    -1967 but below it between 1968-1985. In fact, the early 1970s were a period of rainfall failure and famine in the Sahel, and coincided with population declines in many of the migrant bird populations wintering in these drought-affect d dryland habitats... and grazing reserves have been subject to more intensive use (both legal and illegal). The extent of Sahelian wetlands has been reduced by the construction of dams for hydro power and irrigation. The spatial patterns of land use change and the associated...

  5. Bayesian Calibration of the Community Land Model using Surrogates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Sargsyan, K.; Swiler, Laura P.

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We present results from the Bayesian calibration of hydrological parameters of the Community Land Model (CLM), which is often used in climate simulations and Earth system models. A statistical inverse problem is formulated for three hydrological parameters, conditioned on observations of latent heat surface fluxes over 48 months. Our calibration method uses polynomial and Gaussian process surrogates of the CLM, and solves the parameter estimation problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. Posterior probability densities for the parameters are developed for two sites with different soil and vegetation covers. Our method also allows us to examine the structural error in CLM under two error models. We find that accurate surrogate models can be created for CLM in most cases. The posterior distributions lead to better prediction than the default parameter values in CLM. Climatologically averaging the observations does not modify the parameters’ distributions significantly. The structural error model reveals a correlation time-scale which can potentially be used to identify physical processes that could be contributing to it. While the calibrated CLM has a higher predictive skill, the calibration is under-dispersive.

  6. An update on modeling land-ice/ocean interactions in CESM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Asay-davis, Xylar [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2011-01-24T23:59:59.000Z

    This talk is an update on ongoing land-ice/ocean coupling work within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The coupling method is designed to allow simulation of a fully dynamic ice/ocean interface, while requiring minimal modification to the existing ocean model (the Parallel Ocean Program, POP). The method makes use of an immersed boundary method (IBM) to represent the geometry of the ice-ocean interface without requiring that the computational grid be modified in time. We show many of the remaining development challenges that need to be addressed in order to perform global, century long climate runs with fully coupled ocean and ice sheet models. These challenges include moving to a new grid where the computational pole is no longer at the true south pole and several changes to the coupler (the software tool used to communicate between model components) to allow the boundary between land and ocean to vary in time. We discuss benefits for ice/ocean coupling that would be gained from longer-term ocean model development to allow for natural salt fluxes (which conserve both water and salt mass, rather than water volume).

  7. Bioenergy crop productivity and potential climate change mitigation from marginal lands in the United States: An

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhuang, Qianlai

    ÀChampaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA Abstract Growing biomass feedstocks from marginal lands is becoming an increasingly

  8. ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' scientific report ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' Team

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' scientific report ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' Team) : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 6 2.2 Anthropogenic climate change studies: scenario experiments (96) : : : : : : : : : 7 2 following its creation, the ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' team had to make its proofs in order

  9. Lakes & Reservoirs: Research and Management 2002 7: 189199 Modelling the impact of historical land uses on

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    uses on surface-water quality using groundwater flow and solute-transport models Karen G. Wayland,1-use effects on surface-water quality. Key words groundwater lag time, groundwater modelling, land use, water quality, watersheds. INTRODUCTION The biogeochemistry of surface water and groundwater are related to land

  10. Impact of Agricultural Practice on Regional Climate in a Coupled Land Surface Mesoscale Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cooley, H.S.; Riley, W.J.; Torn, M.S.; He, Y.

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    winter wheat belt on the mesoscale environment, Monthlygeneration Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5), NCAR,in a Coupled Land Surface Mesoscale Model H.S. Cooley Energy

  11. Fire dynamics during the 20th century simulated by the Community Land Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kloster, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Thornton, P. E.; Hoffman, F. M.; Levis, Samuel; Lawrence, Peter J.; Feddema, Johannes J.; Oleson, Keith W.; Lawrence, David M.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Fire is an integral Earth System process that interacts with climate in multiple ways. Here we assessed the parametrization of fires in the Community Land Model (CLM-CN) and improved the ability of the model to reproduce ...

  12. Modeling the influences of land reclamation on groundwater systems: A case study in Shekou peninsula, Shenzhen, China

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jiao, Jiu Jimmy

    Modeling the influences of land reclamation on groundwater systems: A case study in Shekou form 16 February 2010 Accepted 18 April 2010 Available online 24 April 2010 Keywords: Land reclamation of land has been reclaimed around the Shekou peninsula, Shenzhen, China. Land reclamation may have

  13. Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers, impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Popp, Alexander; Rose, Steven K.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Dietrich, Jan P.; Wise, Marshall A.; Stehfest, Eike; Humpenoder, Florian; Kyle, G. Page; Van Vliet, Jasper; Bauer, Nico; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Klein, David; Kriegler, Elmar

    2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study is a model comparison assessing the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system and the interaction with other land use based mitigation options in the context of the EMF 27 project. We compare and evaluate results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE). All three models project that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues are a potentially important and cost-effective component of the energy system. But bioenergy deployment levels and feedstock composition vary notably across models as do the implications for land-use and greenhouse gas emissions and the interaction with other land use based mitigation measures. Despite numerous model differences, we identify a few that are likely contributing to differences in land-use and emissions attributable to energy crop deployment.

  14. Analytic solutions for the land temperature in an Earth system model of intermediate Mark Williamson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Williamson, Mark

    Analytic solutions for the land temperature in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Analytic solutions for the temporal evolution of the land temperature are obtained for an Earth system and atmosphere radiation balance in a developing EMIC project named GENIE (Grid Enabled Integrated Earth system

  15. A Physically Based Runoff Routing Model for Land Surface and Earth System Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Hongyi; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Wu, Huan; Huang, Maoyi; Ke, Yinghai; Coleman, Andre M.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-06-13T23:59:59.000Z

    A new physically based runoff routing model, called the Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART), has been developed to be applicable across local, regional, and global scales. Within each spatial unit, surface runoff is first routed across hillslopes and then discharged along with subsurface runoff into a ‘‘tributary subnetwork’’ before entering the main channel. The spatial units are thus linked via routing through the main channel network, which is constructed in a scale-consistent way across different spatial resolutions. All model parameters are physically based, and only a small subset requires calibration.MOSART has been applied to the Columbia River basin at 1/ 168, 1/ 88, 1/ 48, and 1/ 28 spatial resolutions and was evaluated using naturalized or observed streamflow at a number of gauge stations. MOSART is compared to two other routing models widely used with land surface models, the River Transport Model (RTM) in the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Lohmann routing model, included as a postprocessor in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model package, yielding consistent performance at multiple resolutions. MOSART is further evaluated using the channel velocities derived from field measurements or a hydraulic model at various locations and is shown to be capable of producing the seasonal variation and magnitude of channel velocities reasonably well at different resolutions. Moreover, the impacts of spatial resolution on model simulations are systematically examined at local and regional scales. Finally, the limitations ofMOSART and future directions for improvements are discussed.

  16. Cumulative soil chemistry changes from land application of saline-sodic waters

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ganjegunte, G.K.; King, L.A.; Vance, G.F. [University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States). Department for Renewable Resources

    2008-09-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Management of large volumes (60,000 ha-m) of co-production water associated with coal bed natural gas (CBNG) water extraction is a potential concern in the Powder River Basin (PRB) of Wyoming and Montana due to elevated water salinity and sodicity levels. Land application of saline-sodic CBNG water is a common water management method being practiced in the PRB, which can result in deterioration in soil quality. The objective of this study was to evaluate effects from 1 to 4 yr of land application with CBNG water on soil chemical properties at six study sites (fine to loamy, mixed to smectitic, mesic, Ustic Ardisols and Entisols) in the Wyoming PRB region. Changes in chemistry of soils collected from six depths irrigated with CBNG water were compared with representative non-irrigated soils. Applications of CBNG water significantly increased soil EC, SAR, and ESP values (up to 21, 74, and 24 times, respectively) compared with non-irrigated soils. Differences in soil chemical properties between an irrigated and non-irrigated coarse-textured soil were less than that of fine-textured soils, emphasizing texture as an important factor for salinity buildup. Pretreatment of CBNG water using a sulfur burner and application of gypsum and elemental S soil amendments reduced soil pH but did not prevent the build-up of salts and sodium. Study results suggest that current CBNG water management strategies are not as effective as projected. Additional research is needed to develop management strategies appropriate for mitigating adverse effects of CBNG water irrigation.

  17. Downscaling Global Land Cover Projections from an Integrated Assessment Model for Use in Regional Analyses: Results and Evaluation for the US from 2005 to 2095

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    West, Tristram O.; Le Page, Yannick LB; Huang, Maoyi; Wolf, Julie; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-06-05T23:59:59.000Z

    Projections of land cover change generated from Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and other economic-based models can be applied for analyses of environmental impacts at subregional and landscape scales. For those IAM and economic models that project land use at the sub-continental or regional scale, these projections must be downscaled and spatially distributed prior to use in climate or ecosystem models. Downscaling efforts to date have been conducted at the national extent with relatively high spatial resolution (30m) and at the global extent with relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.5 degree).

  18. Irrigation cooling effect: Regional climate forcing by land-use change Lara M. Kueppers,1,2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kueppers, Lara M.

    Irrigation cooling effect: Regional climate forcing by land-use change Lara M. Kueppers,1,2 Mark A to show that a regional irrigation cooling effect (ICE) exists, opposite in sign to urban heat island magnitude, but opposite sign, to predictions for future regional warming from greenhouse gases. Given our

  19. EA-1779: Proposed Changes to the Sanitary Biosolids Land Application Program on the Oak Ridge Reservation, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This EA evaluates the environmental impacts of a proposal to amend (e.g., by changing setback requirements from surface water features and potential channels to groundwater) the Sanitary Biosolids Land Application Program at the Oak Ridge Reservation in Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

  20. Climate Models from the Joint Global Change Research Institute

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Staff at the Joint Institute develop and use models to simulate the economic and physical impacts of global change policy options. The GCAM, for example, gives analysts insight into how regional and national economies might respond to climate change mitigation policies including carbon taxes, carbon trading, and accelerated deployment of energy technology. Three available models are Phoenix, GCAM, and EPIC. Phoenix is a global, dynamic recursive, computable general equilibrium model that is solved in five-year time steps from 2005 through 2100 and divides the world into twenty-four regions. Each region includes twenty-six industrial sectors. Particular attention is paid to energy production in Phoenix. There are nine electricity-generating technologies (coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal) and four additional energy commodities: crude oil, refined oil products, coal, and natural gas. Phoenix is designed to answer economic questions related to international climate and energy policy and international trade. Phoenix replaces the Second Generation Model (SGM) that was formerly used for general equilibrium analysis at JGCRI. GCAM is the Global Change Assessment Model, a partial equilibrium model of the world with 14 regions. GCAM operates in 5 year time steps from 1990 to 2095 and is designed to examine long-term changes in the coupled energy, agriculture/land-use, and climate system. GCAM includes a 151-region agriculture land-use module and a reduced form carbon cycle and climate module in addition to its incorporation of demographics, resources, energy production and consumption. The model has been used extensively in a number of assessment and modeling activities such as the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and IPCC assessment reports. GCAM is now freely available as a community model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) Model is a process-based agricultural systems model composed of simulation components for weather, hydrology, nutrient cycling, pesticide fate, tillage, crop growth, soil erosion, crop and soil management and economics. Staff at PNNL have been involved in the development of this model by integrating new sub-models for soil carbon dynamics and nitrogen cycling.

  1. CCSM Land Model Working Group Meeting 30 March 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , N-LAMP 14:30 Discussion led by Jim Randerson (ILAMB, Coordinated Land / BGC Development) 15:00 Break. Oklahoma) ­ BGC Data Assimilation 14:00 Beth Holland (NCAR) ­ N-LAMP 14:15 Peter Thornton (ORNL) ­ C-LAMP

  2. Adventures in Vectorizing the Community Land Model Forrest M. Hoffman

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoffman, Forrest M.

    Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI) James B. White III, Patrick Worley, and John Drake Oak Ridge) on the IBM Power4, the Earth Simulator, and the Cray X1 are compared. #12;1 Introduction The Community Land-based scalar multi-processor computer platforms and re- sulted in code which would not vectorize. The avail

  3. Remote Sensing of Changing Cryosphere, LandIce and Snow -Workshop of the European Association of Remote Sensing Laboratories (EARSeL),

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zahn, Matthias

    Remote Sensing of Changing Cryosphere, LandIce and Snow - Workshop of the European Association of Remote Sensing Laboratories (EARSeL), Bern, Switzerland, 11-13 February 2008 Page 1 Potential and limits Max-Planck Institute of Meteorology, Germany #12;Remote Sensing of Changing Cryosphere, Land

  4. APPLYING BUSINESS PROCESS MODELING TO ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 APPLYING BUSINESS PROCESS MODELING TO ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE Ricardo Mendes, João Mateus, Eduardo.mendes}@ceo.inesc.pt {jgm ,ejms}@mega.ist.utl.pt {jose.tribolet}@ceo.inesc.pt Abstract Organizational change can be regarded Modeling, Organizational Change, UML, Process Re-engineering, Process Improvement, Business Strategy

  5. An international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Randerson, James T [ORNL; Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Bonan, Gordon [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Erickson III, David J [ORNL; Fung, Inez [University of California, Berkeley

    2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The need to capture important climate feedbacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, called Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). This work suggests that a more rigorous set of global offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are needed. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) was designed to meet this need by providing a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). Recently, a similar effort in Europe, called the International Land Model Benchmark (ILAMB) Project, was begun to assess the performance of European land surface models. These two projects will now serve as prototypes for a proposed international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for those models participating in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Initially used for model validation for terrestrial biogeochemistry models in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM), C-LAMP incorporates a simulation protocol for both offline and partially coupled simulations using a prescribed historical trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Models are confronted with data through comparisons against AmeriFlux site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA Globalview flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) site measurements. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the CLM version 3 in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): the CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon-nitrogen (CN) model of Thornton. Comparisons of the CLM3 offline results against observational datasets have been performed and are described in Randerson et al. (2009). CLM version 4 has been evaluated using C-LAMP, showing improvement in many of the metrics. Efforts are now underway to initiate a Nitrogen-Land Model Intercomparison Project (N-LAMP) to better constrain the effects of the nitrogen cycle in biosphere models. Presented will be new results from C-LAMP for CLM4, initial N-LAMP developments, and the proposed land-biosphere model benchmarking activity.

  6. Change detection with heterogeneous data using ecoregional stratification, statistical summaries and a land allocation algorithm

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brown, Daniel G.

    -cover classification based on aerial photo interpretation was combined with 2000 AVHRR satellite imagery to derive land; Rogan et al., 2002), the vast majority of applications are based on data derived from the same sensor a methodology for combining a photo-digitized historical land-cover map with contemporary satellite imagery

  7. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP): A Model-Data Comparison System for Evaluation of Coupled Biosphere-Atmosphere Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Randerson, Jim [University of California, Irvine; Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Mahowald, Natalie [Cornell University; Bonan, Gordon [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Running, Steven [University of Montana, Missoula; Fung, Inez [University of California, Berkeley

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The need to capture important climate feebacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in new efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, now often referred to as Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results, suggesting that a more rigorous set of offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are warranted. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) provides a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). C-LAMP provides feedback to the modeling community regarding model improvements and to the measurement community by suggesting new observational campaigns. C-LAMP Experiment 1 consists of a set of uncoupled simulations of terrestrial carbon models specifically designed to examine the ability of the models to reproduce surface carbon and energy fluxes at multiple sites and to exhibit the influence of climate variability, prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), nitrogen (N) deposition, and land cover change on projections of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 20th century. Experiment 2 consists of partially coupled simulations of the terrestrial carbon model with an active atmosphere model exchanging energy and moisture fluxes. In all experiments, atmospheric CO{sub 2} follows the prescribed historical trajectory from C{sup 4}MIP. In Experiment 2, the atmosphere model is forced with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and corresponding sea ice concentrations from the Hadley Centre; prescribed CO{sub 2} is radiatively active; and land, fossil fuel, and ocean CO{sub 2} fluxes are advected by the model. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3) in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): The CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon-nitrogen (CN) model of Thornton. Comparisons against Ameriflus site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO{sub 2} Enrichment (FACE) site measurements, and other datasets have been performed and are described in Randerson et al. (2009). The C-LAMP diagnostics package was used to validate improvements to CASA and CN for use in the next generation model, CLM4. It is hoped that this effort will serve as a prototype for an international carbon-cycle model benchmarking activity for models being used for the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report. More information about C-LAMP, the experimental protocol, performance metrics, output standards, and model-data comparisons from the CLM3-CASA and CLM3-CN models are available at http://www.climatemodeling.org/c-lamp.

  8. Sensitivity of Global Terrestrial Gross Primary Production to Hydrologic States Simulated by the Community Land Model Using Two Runoff Parameterizations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lei, Huimin; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Yang, Dawen; Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Hayes, Daniel J.; Schwalm, C.; Wei, Yaxing; Liu, Shishi

    2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The terrestrial water and carbon cycles interact strongly at various spatio-temporal scales. To elucidate how hydrologic processes may influence carbon cycle processes, differences in terrestrial carbon cycle simulations induced by structural differences in two runoff generation schemes were investigated using the Community Land Model 4 (CLM4). Simulations were performed with runoff generation using the default TOPMODEL-based and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model approaches under the same experimental protocol. The comparisons showed that differences in the simulated gross primary production (GPP) are mainly attributed to differences in the simulated leaf area index (LAI) rather than soil moisture availability. More specifically, differences in runoff simulations can influence LAI through changes in soil moisture, soil temperature, and their seasonality that affect the onset of the growing season and the subsequent dynamic feedbacks between terrestrial water, energy, and carbon cycles. As a result of a relative difference of 36% in global mean total runoff between the two models and subsequent changes in soil moisture, soil temperature, and LAI, the simulated global mean GPP differs by 20.4%. However, the relative difference in the global mean net ecosystem exchange between the two models is small (2.1%) due to competing effects on total mean ecosystem respiration and other fluxes, although large regional differences can still be found. Our study highlights the significant interactions among the water, energy, and carbon cycles and the need for reducing uncertainty in the hydrologic parameterization of land surface models to better constrain carbon cycle modeling.

  9. Tracking changes in the susceptibility of forest land infested with gypsy moth. Forest Service research paper (Final)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gansner, D.A.; Quimby, J.W.; King, S.L.; Arner, S.L.; Drake, D.A.

    1994-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The report questions the forest land subject to intensive outbreaks of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) which become less susceptible to defoliation. A model for estimating the lifelihood of gypsy moth defoliation has been developed and validated. It was applied to forest-inventory plot data to quantity trends in the susceptibility of forest land in south-central Pennsylvania during a period of intensive infestation. Results show that even though susceptibility of the region's forest apparently has declined, the potential for future infestations remains relatively high.

  10. Land-Based Wind Potential Changes in the Southeastern United States (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Roberts, J. O.

    2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Recent advancements in utility-scale wind turbine technology and pricing have vastly increased the potential land area where turbines can be deployed in the United States. This presentation quantifies the new developable land potential (e.g., capacity curves), visually identifies new areas for possible development (e.g., new wind resource maps), and begins to address deployment barriers to wind in new areas for modern and future turbine technology.

  11. INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW (Vol. 25, No. 2, 2002)Walker et al. / LAND USE IN FOREST FRONTIERS LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Walker, Robert T.

    for inputs (including labor), outputs, and capital. The risk model is specified and estimated, using survey that integrates demography with market-based factors such as transportation costs and accessibility. In essence and Resource Use in the Amazon (SBR-95-11965)," and also by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration

  12. A Subbasin-based framework to represent land surface processes in an Earth System Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tesfa, Teklu K.; Li, Hongyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Huang, Maoyi; Ke, Yinghai; Sun, Yu; Liu, Ying

    2014-05-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Realistically representing spatial heterogeneity and lateral land surface processes within and between modeling units in earth system models is important because of their implications to surface energy and water exchange. The traditional approach of using regular grids as computational units in land surface models and earth system models may lead to inadequate representation of lateral movements of water, energy and carbon fluxes, especially when the grid resolution increases. Here a new subbasin-based framework is introduced in the Community Land Model (CLM), which is the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Local processes are represented assuming each subbasin as a grid cell on a pseudo grid matrix with no significant modifications to the existing CLM modeling structure. Lateral routing of water within and between subbasins is simulated with the subbasin version of a recently-developed physically based routing model, Model for Scale Adaptive River Routing (MOSART). As an illustration, this new framework is implemented in the topographically diverse region of the U.S. Pacific Northwest. The modeling units (subbasins) are delineated from high-resolution Digital Elevation Model while atmospheric forcing and surface parameters are remapped from the corresponding high resolution datasets. The impacts of this representation on simulating hydrologic processes are explored by comparing it with the default (grid-based) CLM representation. In addition, the effects of DEM resolution on parameterizing topography and the subsequent effects on runoff processes are investigated. Limited model evaluation and comparison showed that small difference between the averaged forcing can lead to more significant difference in the simulated runoff and streamflow because of nonlinear horizontal processes. Topographic indices derived from high resolution DEM may not improve the overall water balance, but affect the partitioning between surface and subsurface runoff. More systematic analyses are needed to determine the relative merits of the subbasin representation compared to the commonly used grid-based representation, especially when land surface models are approaching higher resolutions.

  13. Figure 9. Conceptual model for regionally divergent responses of the air-land fluxes to CO2 fertilization, which increases the water-use efficiency of photosynthesis. In dry regions where

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Krakauer, Nir Y.

    parameterizations of these processes in models of Mediterranean- climate lands and obtaining a baseline for assessing changes. Acknowledgments NYK is supported by a NOAA Climate and Global Change postdoctoral.1 (2006). I. Y. Fung, S. C. Doney, K. Lindsay, J. John, Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing climate

  14. Modeling the effect of land cover land use change on estuarine environmental flows

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sahoo, Debabrata

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    , whereas upper half experienced decreasing trends. A similar spatial pattern was not observed for rainfall. Winter season observed maximum number of trends. Wavelet analysis on hydrologic variables, suggested presence of multi-scale temporal variability...

  15. ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' scientific report 1 ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' Team

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' scientific report 1 ``Climate Modelling & Global Change of the tropical climate : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 6 2.2 Short­term variability studies : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 8 2.3 Climate drift sensitivity studies

  16. Uncertainty Analysis of Runoff Simulations and Parameter Identifiability in the Community Land Model – Evidence from MOPEX Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huang, Maoyi; Hou, Zhangshuan; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ke, Yinghai; Liu, Ying; Fang, Zhufeng; Sun, Yu

    2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    With the emergence of earth system models as important tools for understanding and predicting climate change and implications to mitigation and adaptation, it has become increasingly important to assess the fidelity of the land component within earth system models to capture realistic hydrological processes and their response to the changing climate and quantify the associated uncertainties. This study investigates the sensitivity of runoff simulations to major hydrologic parameters in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4) by integrating CLM4 with a stochastic exploratory sensitivity analysis framework at 20 selected watersheds from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) spanning a wide range of climate and site conditions. We found that for runoff simulations, the most significant parameters are those related to the subsurface runoff parameterizations. Soil texture related parameters and surface runoff parameters are of secondary significance. Moreover, climate and soil conditions play important roles in the parameter sensitivity. In general, site conditions within water-limited hydrologic regimes and with finer soil texture result in stronger sensitivity of output variables, such as runoff and its surface and subsurface components, to the input parameters in CLM4. This study demonstrated the feasibility of parameter inversion for CLM4 using streamflow observations to improve runoff simulations. By ranking the significance of the input parameters, we showed that the parameter set dimensionality could be reduced for CLM4 parameter calibration under different hydrologic and climatic regimes so that the inverse problem is less ill posed.

  17. Q&A on "Impacts of Wind Farms on Land Surface Temperature" Published by Nature Climate Change on April 29, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhou, Liming

    1 Q&A on "Impacts of Wind Farms on Land Surface Temperature" Published by Nature Climate Change? This study presents the first observational evidence of wind farm impacts on land surface temperature downwind of wind farms. Why do the operating wind turbines warm nighttime temperature? This warming effect

  18. A Functional Test Platform for the Community Land Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Yang [ORNL] [ORNL; Thornton, Peter E [ORNL] [ORNL; King, Anthony Wayne [ORNL] [ORNL; Steed, Chad A [ORNL] [ORNL; Gu, Lianhong [ORNL] [ORNL; Schuchart, Joseph [ORNL] [ORNL

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A functional test platform is presented to create direct linkages between site measurements and the process-based ecosystem model within the Community Earth System Models (CESM). The platform consists of three major parts: 1) interactive user interfaces, 2) functional test model and 3) observational datasets. It provides much needed integration interfaces for both field experimentalists and ecosystem modelers to improve the model s representation of ecosystem processes within the CESM framework without large software overhead.

  19. The Relationship between Land Use and Temperature Change in Dallas County, Texas

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Hee Ju

    2010-10-12T23:59:59.000Z

    to the formation of urban heat islands based on different categories of land use. Specifically, this research analyzes the elements that contribute to the urban heat island effect in Dallas County using temperature data provided by remote sensing imagery and parcel...

  20. Impact of land use and precipitation changes on surface temperature trends in Argentina

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kalnay, Eugenia

    with the introduction of satellite data. [5] It is not clear what causes this lack of apparent warming in this region studies [Lim et al., 2005, 2008] indicate that the response to global warming may be st to most other land areas, over most of Argentina there has been net cooling, not warming (about �0.04°C

  1. Land use and land cover change: the effects of woody plant encroachment and prescribed fire on biodiversity and ecosystem carbon dynamics in a southern great plains mixed grass savanna

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hollister, Emily Brooke

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE: THE EFFECTS OF WOODY PLANT ENCROACHMENT AND PRESCRIBED FIRE ON BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM CARBON DYNAMICS IN A SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS MIXED GRASS SAVANNA A Dissertation by EMILY BROOKE HOLLISTER Submitted... PLANT ENCROACHMENT AND PRESCRIBED FIRE ON BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM CARBON DYNAMICS IN A SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS MIXED GRASS SAVANNA A Dissertation by EMILY BROOKE HOLLISTER Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial...

  2. The influence of the land surface on hydrometeorology and ecology: new advances from modeling and satellite

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Small, Eric

    Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and EOS Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR and through model initialization of soil moisture from High Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS moisture and sensible heat fluxes. For example, the variations of surface energy and moisture fluxes

  3. Linking MODFLOW with an Agent-Based Land-Use Model to Support Decision Making

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Illinois at Chicago, University of

    Linking MODFLOW with an Agent-Based Land-Use Model to Support Decision Making by Howard W. Reeves1 improve water resources management by illustrating the nonlinear behavior of the coupled system (Pahl systems arise from the decisions of many individuals and groups (Holland 1995; Batty 2005). For the agent

  4. Changes in Farmers’ Welfare from Land Requisition in the Process of Rapid Urbanization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Huan; Huang, Xianjin; Kwan, Mei-Po; Bao, Helen X. H.; Jefferson, Steven

    2014-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

    incomes can best represent such functional activities. (2) Dwelling condition relates to the basic function of a house, which is to protect people from inclement weather such as wind, rain, chill, and frost. In alignment with the development of society... through farming, farmers had to buy food from the market, which increased living costs. Improvements in infrastructure in the installing site expenditures in these aspects. Nevertheless, net incomes of the farmers whose land was requisitioned have shown...

  5. The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model v1.0 coupled to the CABLE land surface scheme v1.4b: evaluation of the control climatology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mao, Jiafu [ORNL; Phipps, S.J. [University of New South Wales; Pitman, A.J. [University of New South Wales; Wang, Yingping [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research; Abramowitz, G. [University of New South Wales; Pak, B. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model, a reduced-resolution coupled general circulation model, has previously been described in this journal. The model is configured for millennium scale or multiple century scale simulations. This paper reports the impact of replacing the relatively simple land surface scheme that is the default parameterisation in Mk3L with a sophisticated land surface model that simulates the terrestrial energy, water and carbon balance in a physically and biologically consistent way. An evaluation of the new model s near-surface climatology highlights strengths and weaknesses, but overall the atmospheric variables, including the near-surface air temperature and precipitation, are simulated well. The impact of the more sophisticated land surface model on existing variables is relatively small, but generally positive. More significantly, the new land surface scheme allows an examination of surface carbon-related quantities including net primary productivity which adds significantly to the capacity of Mk3L. Overall, results demonstrate that this reduced-resolution climate model is a good foundation for exploring long time scale phenomena. The addition of the more sophisticated land surface model enables an exploration of important Earth System questions including land cover change and abrupt changes in terrestrial carbon storage.

  6. 247VECTORIZING THE COMMUNITY LAND MODEL VECTORIZING THE COMMUNITY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoffman, Forrest M.

    systems models (including the CLM) on vector architectures. However, the prior development of the CLM in Japan and the Cray X1 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) spawned renewed interest in running Earth

  7. Investigating the effect of farmer land-use decisions on rural landscapes using an agent-based model approach 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Karali, Eleni

    2012-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

    Land use and cover change (LUCC) is increasingly recognised as one of the most visible impacts of humans on nature. In rural areas, most of the observed LUCC is associated with agricultural activities. This has traditionally been attributed...

  8. The Effects of Quality Control on Decreasing Error Propagation in the LandScan USA Population Distribution Model: A Case Study of Philadelphia County

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Patterson, Lauren [University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Myers, Aaron T [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Coleman, Phil R [ORNL

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Landscan USA is a high resolution dasymetric model incorporating multiple ancillary variables to distribute populations. LandScan USA is a valuable tool in determining the population at risk during emergency response situations. However, a critical evaluation is necessary to produce user confidence regarding model accuracy through the verification and validation of model outputs. Unfortunately, dynamic models, such as population distribution, are often not validated due to the difficulty of having multiple input datasets and lack of validated data. A validated dataset allows analysis of model accuracy, as well as quantifying the benefits and costs of improving input datasets compared to find a balance for producing the best model. This paper examines inaccuracies present within the input variables of two national school datasets incorporated in the model. Schools were chosen since a validated school dataset exists for Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania. Quality control efforts utilized throughout the LandScan USA process are quantified to determine the degree of quality control necessary to have a statistically significant effect on model output. Typical LandScan USA quality control resulted in 43% of school enrollment values changed, compared to 89% for the validated dataset. Normal quality control methods resulted in 36% of schools being spatially relocated compared to 87% for the validated dataset. However, the costs of increasing quality control from normal to the validated dataset equated to a 600% increase in manual labor time for statistically insignificant improvements in LandScan USA daytime. This study enabled validation verification of not only the quality control process for LandScan USA, but also provides confidence in model output and use for policy issues, planning and emergency situations.

  9. Inverse Modeling of Hydrologic Parameters Using Surface Flux and Runoff Observations in the Community Land Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sun, Yu; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Tian, Fuqiang; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-12-10T23:59:59.000Z

    This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Two inversion strategies, the deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) - Bayesian inversion approaches, are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the least-square fitting provides little improvements in the model simulations but the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches are consistent - as more information comes in, the predictive intervals of the calibrated parameters become narrower and the misfits between the calculated and observed responses decrease. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to the different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty bounds.

  10. The effects of climate change and extreme weather events on land use

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richner, Heinz

    in June 2009 ranked Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Albania as the"most vulnerable to climate change"of 28 countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The present policy brief examines Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and Kyrgyzstan are especially vulnerable to the risks of climate change. Their widely degraded landscapes

  11. RAMI4PILPS: An intercomparison of formulations for the partitioning of solar radiation in land surface models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ni-Meister, Wenge

    RAMI4PILPS: An intercomparison of formulations for the partitioning of solar radiation in land for the partitioning of solar radiation in land surface models, J. Geophys. Res., 116, G02019, doi:10.1029/2010JG001511 [e.g., Zeng et al., 2000; Dai et al., 2004]. The partitioning of solar radiation between

  12. The Changing US Electric Sector Business Model 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aliff, G.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Changing US Electric Sector Business Model CATEE 2013 Clean Air Through Energy Efficiency Conference San Antonio, Texas December 17, 2013 ESL-KT-13-12-57 CATEE 2013: Clean Air Through Energy Efficiency Conference, San Antonio, Texas Dec. 16... Electricity Business Model • Observations on the Future and Conclusions Presentation overview 2 ESL-KT-13-12-57 CATEE 2013: Clean Air Through Energy Efficiency Conference, San Antonio, Texas Dec. 16-18 Copyright © 2013 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights...

  13. Transformed shoreline-following horizontal coordinates in a mesoscale model: A sea-land-breeze case study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Berri, G.J.; Nunez, M.N. (Universidad de Buenos Aires (Argentina) Pabellon II Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires (Argentina))

    1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A hydrostatic and incompressible mesoscale model with transformed horizontal coordinates is presented. The model is applied to study the sea-land-breeze circulation over Rio de La Plata. One of the new coordinates is shoreline-following and the other one is locally quasi-perpendicular to the first one. The original set of equations in the Cartesian coordinates is rewritten in the curvilinear coordinates. This transformation is useful provided that the curvilinear coordinates are close to being orthogonal. The horizontal domain covers 250 km [times] 250 km, and the vertical domain is 2 km deep. To predict the sea-land-breeze circulation the model is integrated over 12 h. The forcing of the model is a cyclic perturbation of the surface temperature. The changes in the wind direction during the day are in good agreement with the observations from six weather stations in the region. The same program code is applied to uniform domains of different resolutions in order to test the coordinate transformation. Results show that the predictions based upon the variable-resolution version resemble ones obtained using high uniform resolution but consume only one-fourth the computer time needed by the latter. Comparison of the vertical velocity patterns predicted by the model to the cumulus clouds distribution observed from satellite images show a very good agreement too. The authors believe that all these results justify the use of the coordinate transformation in this type of model, although further verifications are needed in order to draw more definitive conclusions. 28 refs., 11 figs.

  14. Model building for flavor changing Higgs couplings

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Avital Dery; Aielet Efrati; Yosef Nir; Yotam Soreq; Vasja Susi?

    2014-09-21T23:59:59.000Z

    If $t\\rightarrow hq$ ($q=c,u$) or $h\\rightarrow\\tau\\ell$ ($\\ell=\\mu,e$) decays are observed, it will be a clear signal of new physics. We investigate whether natural and viable flavor models can saturate the present direct upper bounds without violating the indirect constraints from low energy loop processes. We carry out our analysis in two theoretical frameworks: minimal flavor violation (MFV) and Froggatt-Nielsen symmetry (FN). The simplest models in either framework predict flavor changing couplings that are too small to be directly observed. Yet, in the MFV framework, it is possible to have lepton flavor changing Higgs couplings close to the bound if spurions related to heavy singlet neutrinos play a role. In the FN framework, it is possible to have large flavor changing couplings in both the up and the charged lepton sectors if supersymmetry plays a role.

  15. Community Land Model Version 3.0 (CLM3.0) Developer's Guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffman, FM

    2004-12-21T23:59:59.000Z

    This document describes the guidelines adopted for software development of the Community Land Model (CLM) and serves as a reference to the entire code base of the released version of the model. The version of the code described here is Version 3.0 which was released in the summer of 2004. This document, the Community Land Model Version 3.0 (CLM3.0) User's Guide (Vertenstein et al., 2004), the Technical Description of the Community Land Model (CLM) (Oleson et al., 2004), and the Community Land Model's Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-DGVM): Technical Description and User's Guide (Levis et al., 2004) provide the developer, user, or researcher with details of implementation, instructions for using the model, a scientific description of the model, and a scientific description of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model integrated with CLM respectively. The CLM is a single column (snow-soil-vegetation) biogeophysical model of the land surface which can be run serially (on a laptop or personal computer) or in parallel (using distributed or shared memory processors or both) on both vector and scalar computer architectures. Written in Fortran 90, CLM can be run offline (i.e., run in isolation using stored atmospheric forcing data), coupled to an atmospheric model (e.g., the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM)), or coupled to a climate system model (e.g., the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3)) through a flux coupler (e.g., Coupler 6 (CPL6)). When coupled, CLM exchanges fluxes of energy, water, and momentum with the atmosphere. The horizontal land surface heterogeneity is represented by a nested subgrid hierarchy composed of gridcells, landunits, columns, and plant functional types (PFTs). This hierarchical representation is reflected in the data structures used by the model code. Biophysical processes are simulated for each subgrid unit (landunit, column, and PFT) independently, and prognostic variables are maintained for each subgrid unit. Vertical heterogeneity is represented by a single vegetation layer, 10 layers for soil, and up to five layers for snow, depending on the snow depth. For computational efficiency, gridcells are grouped into ''clumps'' which are divided in cyclic fashion among distributed memory processors. Additional parallel performance is obtained by distributing clumps of gridcells across shared memory processors on computer platforms that support hybrid Message Passing Interface (MPI)/OpenMP operation. Significant modifications to the source code have been made over the last year to support efficient operation on newer vector architectures, specifically the Earth Simulator in Japan and the Cray X1 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (Homan et al., 2004). These code modifications resulted in performance improvements even on the scalar architectures widely used for running CLM presently. To better support vectorized processing in the code, subgrid units (columns and PFTs) are grouped into ''filters'' based on their process-specific categorization. For example, filters (vectors of integers) referring to all snow, non-snow, lake, non-lake, and soil covered columns and PFTs within each clump are built and maintained when the model is run. Many loops within the scientific subroutines use these filters to indirectly address the process-appropriate subgrid units.

  16. Utilizing CLASIC observations and multiscale models to study the impact of improved Land surface representation on modeling cloud- convection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Niyogi, Devdutta S. [Purdue

    2013-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

    The CLASIC experiment was conducted over the US southern great plains (SGP) in June 2007 with an objective to lead an enhanced understanding of the cumulus convection particularly as it relates to land surface conditions. This project was design to help assist with understanding the overall improvement of land atmosphere convection initiation representation of which is important for global and regional models. The study helped address one of the critical documented deficiency in the models central to the ARM objectives for cumulus convection initiation and particularly under summer time conditions. This project was guided by the scientific question building on the CLASIC theme questions: What is the effect of improved land surface representation on the ability of coupled models to simulate cumulus and convection initiation? The focus was on the US Southern Great Plains region. Since the CLASIC period was anomalously wet the strategy has been to use other periods and domains to develop the comparative assessment for the CLASIC data period, and to understand the mechanisms of the anomalous wet conditions on the tropical systems and convection over land. The data periods include the IHOP 2002 field experiment that was over roughly same domain as the CLASIC in the SGP, and some of the DOE funded Ameriflux datasets.

  17. Finding of no significant impact: Changes in the sanitary sludge land application program on the Oak Ridge Reservation, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has completed an environmental assessment (DOE/EA-1042) that evaluates potential impacts of proposed changes in the sanitary sludge land application program on the DOE Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Changes in lifetime sludge land application limits and radionuclide loading are proposed, and two new sources of sewage sludge from DOE facilities would be transported to the City of Oak Ridge Publicly Owned Treatment Works (COR POTW). Lifetime sludge land application limits would increase from 22 tons/acre to 50 tons/acre, which is the limit approved and permitted by the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC). With the approval of TDEC, the permissible radiological dose from sludge land application would change from the current limit of 2x background radionuclide concentrations in receiving soils to a risk-based dose limit of 4 millirem (mrem) per year for the maximally exposed individual. Sludge land application sites would not change from those that are currently part of the program. Based on the results of the analysis reported in the EA, DOE has determined that the proposed action is not a major federal action that would significantly affect the quality of the human environment within the context of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). Therefore, preparation of an environmental impact statement (EIS) is not necessary, and DOE is issuing this Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI). 70 refs., 2 figs., 17 tabs.

  18. Please cite this article in press as: Otero, I., et al., Loss of water availability and stream biodiversity under land abandonment and climate change in a Mediterranean catchment (Olzinelles, NE Spain). Land Use Policy (2010), doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.201

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gracia, Carlos

    biodiversity under land abandonment and climate change in a Mediterranean catchment (Olzinelles, NE Spain under land abandonment and climate change in a Mediterranean catchment (Olzinelles, NE Spain) Iago-cover change Warming Mediterranean catchment Water courses Aquatic fauna a b s t r a c t In the north rim

  19. Land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions from corn and cellulosic...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    key carbon content modeling variables on LUC GHG emissions associated with the four bioethanol pathways we examined. Our results indicate that LUC GHG emissions may have a smaller...

  20. GIS-Based Cellular Automaton Model to allocate Kansas High Plains Irrigated Agriculture Land Use

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chiu, Peiwen

    2014-04-08T23:59:59.000Z

    GIS-Based Cellular Automaton Model to Allocate Irrigated Agriculture Land Use Peiwen Chiu Kansas State University GIS Day 2013 November 20, 2013 University of Kansas High Plains/Ogallala Aquifer 8 States 186,000 mi2 480,000 km2 http... of Acreage From the Model Iterations What’s Next This work was supported in part by the National Science Foundation (grant GEO0909515) and the United States Department of Agriculture/Agricultural Research Service (Ogallala Aquifer Initiative). Any findings...

  1. The Changing US Electric Sector Business Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aliff, G.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Changing US Electric Sector Business Model CATEE 2013 Clean Air Through Energy Efficiency Conference San Antonio, Texas December 17, 2013 ESL-KT-13-12-57 CATEE 2013: Clean Air Through Energy Efficiency Conference, San Antonio, Texas Dec. 16...-18 Copyright © 2013 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. • Fundamentals of the US Electric Sector Business Model • Today’s Challenges Faced by U.S. Electric Sector • The Math Does Not Lie: A Look into the Sector’s Future • Disruption to Today...

  2. Scalability of grid- and subbasin-based land surface modeling approaches for hydrologic simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tesfa, Teklu K.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Huang, Maoyi; Li, Hongyi; Voisin, Nathalie; Wigmosta, Mark S.

    2014-03-27T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper investigates the relative merits of grid- and subbasin-based land surface modeling approaches for hydrologic simulations, with a focus on their scalability (i.e., abilities to perform consistently across a range of spatial resolutions) in simulating runoff generation. Simulations produced by the grid- and subbasin-based configurations of the Community Land Model (CLM) are compared at four spatial resolutions (0.125o, 0.25o, 0.5o and 1o) over the topographically diverse region of the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Using the 0.125o resolution simulation as the “reference”, statistical skill metrics are calculated and compared across simulations at 0.25o, 0.5o and 1o spatial resolutions of each modeling approach at basin and topographic region levels. Results suggest significant scalability advantage for the subbasin-based approach compared to the grid-based approach for runoff generation. Basin level annual average relative errors of surface runoff at 0.25o, 0.5o, and 1o compared to 0.125o are 3%, 4%, and 6% for the subbasin-based configuration and 4%, 7%, and 11% for the grid-based configuration, respectively. The scalability advantages of the subbasin-based approach are more pronounced during winter/spring and over mountainous regions. The source of runoff scalability is found to be related to the scalability of major meteorological and land surface parameters of runoff generation. More specifically, the subbasin-based approach is more consistent across spatial scales than the grid-based approach in snowfall/rainfall partitioning, which is related to air temperature and surface elevation. Scalability of a topographic parameter used in the runoff parameterization also contributes to improved scalability of the rain driven saturated surface runoff component, particularly during winter. Hence this study demonstrates the importance of spatial structure for multi-scale modeling of hydrological processes, with implications to surface heat fluxes in coupled land-atmosphere modeling.

  3. The relationships between biomass burning, land-cover/use change, and the distribution of carbonaceous aerosols in mainland Southeast Asia: A review and synthesis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shi, Tao

    1 The relationships between biomass burning, land-cover/use change, and the distribution. 793, The Ohio State University March 3, 2007 Biomass burning is a major source of black carbon directly and indirectly. Uncertainty regarding the contribution of biomass burning to the concentration

  4. New Mexico Water Resources Research Institute, New Mexico State University http://wrri.nmsu.edu Predicting Land Use Change and its Effect on Nonpoint

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Eric E.

    New Mexico Water Resources Research Institute, New Mexico State University http://wrri.nmsu.edu Predicting Land Use Change and its Effect on Nonpoint Source Pollution Jennifer Thacher, and Janie Chermak, Department of Economics, University of New Mexico Project descriptors: Risk aversion, non-point source

  5. Wood density in forests of Brazil's `arc of deforestation': Implications for biomass and flux of carbon from land-use change in Amazonia

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Camara, Gilberto

    Wood density in forests of Brazil's `arc of deforestation': Implications for biomass and flux of deforestation'', where most of the carbon flux from land-use change takes place. This paper presents new wood of deforestation, using locally collected species weighted by their volume in large local inventories. Mean wood

  6. Climate Change Mitigation Through Land-Use Measures in the Agriculture and

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are beingZealand JumpConceptual Model, clickInformation SmyrnaNewClayClearSpotYork: Energy ResourcesLtdLoan

  7. Quantifying the effect of land use and land cover changes on green water and blue water in northern part of China 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, X.; Ren, L.; Yuan, F.; Singh, V. P.; Fang, X.; Yu, Z.; Zhang, W.

    2009-06-12T23:59:59.000Z

    Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 735?747, 2009 www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/13/735/2009/ ? Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Quantifying the effect of land... al. (1999). These studies, which generally in- dicate that deforestation causes an increase in the mean an- nual discharge, have concentrated on the impacts of forest management on water yield (Siriwardena et al., 2006).While field experiments can...

  8. How predictable : modeling rates of change in individuals and populations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Krumme, Katherine

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis develops methodologies to measure rates of change in individual human behavior, and to capture statistical regularities in change at the population level, in three pieces: i) a model of individual rate of change ...

  9. Modeling land surface processes of the midwestern United States : predicting soil moisture under a warmer climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Winter, Jonathan (Jonathan Mark)

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation seeks to quantify the response of soil moisture to climate change in the midwestern United States. To assess this response, a dynamic global vegetation model, Integrated Biosphere Simulator, was coupled ...

  10. NUMERICAL MODELING FOR MULTIPHASE INCOMPRESSIBLE FLOW WITH PHASE CHANGE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdou, Mohamed

    NUMERICAL MODELING FOR MULTIPHASE INCOMPRESSIBLE FLOW WITH PHASE CHANGE Xiao-Yong Luo, Ming-Jiu Ni for multiphase flows. A con- tinuum surface force (CSF) tension model is used in the present cases. Phase change

  11. Development of a total landed cost and risk analysis model for global strategic sourcing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feller, Brian (Brian C.)

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Total landed cost and supply chain risk analysis are methods that many companies use to assess strategic sourcing decisions. For this project, landed cost is defined as those costs associated with material movement from a ...

  12. THE APPLICATION OF THE LAND TRANSFORMATION, GROUNDWATER FLOW AND SOLUTE TRANSPORT MODELS FOR MICHIGAN'S GRAND TRAVERSE BAY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 THE APPLICATION OF THE LAND TRANSFORMATION, GROUNDWATER FLOW AND SOLUTE TRANSPORT MODELS). The two hydrogeologic models that are being used here allow us to explore the dynamics of groundwater flow Meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana, March 14, 2001. #12;2 INTRODUCTION Grand Traverse Bay and the Grand

  13. Water balance in the Amazon basin from a land surface model ensemble

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Getirana, Augusto; Dutra, Emanuel; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Kam, Jonghun; Li, Hongyi; Decharme, Bertrand; Zhang, Zhengqiu J.; Ducharne, Agnes; Boone, Aaron; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Rodell, Matthew; Mounirou Toure, Ally; Xue, Yongkang; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Arsenault, Kristi Rae; Drapeau, Guillaume; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ronchail, Josyane; Sheffield, Justin

    2014-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

    Despite recent advances in modeling and remote sensing of land surfaces, estimates of the global water budget are still fairly uncertain. The objective of this study is to evaluate the water budget of the Amazon basin based on several state-of-the-art land surface model (LSM) outputs. Water budget variables [total water storage (TWS), evapotranspiration (ET), surface runoff (R) and baseflow (B)] are evaluated at the basin scale using both remote sensing and in situ data. Fourteen LSMs were run using meteorological forcings at a 3-hourly time step and 1-degree spatial resolution. Three experiments are performed using precipitation which has been rescaled to match monthly global GPCP and GPCC datasets and the daily HYBAM dataset for the Amazon basin. R and B are used to force the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme and simulated discharges are compared against observations at 165 gauges. Simulated ET and TWS are compared against FLUXNET and MOD16A2 evapotranspiration, and GRACE TWS estimates in different catchments. At the basin scale, simulated ET ranges from 2.39mm.d-1 to 3.26mm.d-1 and a low spatial correlation between ET and P indicates that evapotranspiration does not depend on water availability over most of the basin. Results also show that other simulated water budget variables vary significantly as a function of both the LSM and precipitation used, but simulated TWS generally agree at the basin scale. The best water budget simulations resulted from experiments using the HYBAM dataset, mostly explained by a denser rainfall gauge network the daily rescaling.

  14. Population and Climate Change:Population and Climate Change: Coupling Population Models withCoupling Population Models with

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kalnay, Eugenia

    Coupling Population Models with Earth System ModelsEarth System Models Eugenia Kalnay, Safa Motesharrei, Jorge Rivas Change: Fully Coupling Population and Earth System Models" My research at the U. of Maryland #12

  15. EA-1042: Proposed Changes to the Sanitary Sludge Land Application Program on the Oak Ridge Reservation, Oak Ridge, Tennesee

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This EA evaluates the environmental impacts of the proposal to raise the sludge land application loading limits from the current, self-imposed conservative 48 metric tons/ha lifetime loading to the...

  16. Change in Land Cover along the Lower Columbia River Estuary as Determined from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) Imagery, Technical Report 2003.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Garono, Ralph; Anderson, Becci; Robinson, Rob

    2003-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Lower Columbia River Estuary Management Plan (Jerrick, 1991) recognizes the positive relationship between the conservation of fish and wildlife habitat, and sustaining their populations. An important component of fish and wildlife conservation and management is the identification of habitats, trends in habitat change, and delineation of habitat for preservation, restoration or enhancement. Alterations to the environment, such as hydropower generation, dredging, forestry, agriculture, channel alteration, diking, bank stabilization and floodplain development, have dramatically altered both the type and distribution of habitats along the Columbia River Estuary (CRE) and its floodplain. Along the Columbia River, tidally influenced habitats occur from the river mouth to the Bonneville Dam, a distance of 230 km. If we are to effectively manage the natural resources of the Columbia River ecosystem, there is a need to understand how habitats have changed because fish and wildlife populations are known to respond to changes in habitat quality and distribution. The goal of this study was to measure the amount and type of change of CRE land cover from 1992 to 2000. We performed a change analysis on two spatial data sets describing land cover along the lower portion of the estuary (Fig. 1). The 1992 data set was created by the NOAA Coastal Remote Sensing, Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) in cooperation with Columbia River Estuary Study Task Force (CREST), the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Point Adams Field Station, and State of Washington Department of Natural Resources (DNR). The 2000 data set was produced by Earth Design Consultants, Inc. (EDC) and the Wetland Ecosystem Team (WET: University of Washington) as part of a larger Lower Columbia River Estuary Partnership (Estuary Partnership) habitat mapping study. Although the image classification methodologies used to create the data sets differed, both data sets were produced by classifying Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery, making it feasible to assess land cover changes between 1992 and 2000.

  17. LandScan USA: A High Resolution Geospatial and Temporal Modeling Approach for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Coleman, Phil R [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    High resolution population distribution data are critical for successfully addressing important issues ranging from socio-environmental research to public health to homeland security, since scientific analyses, operational activities, and policy decisions are significantly influenced by the number of impacted people. Dasymetric modeling has been a well recognized approach for spatial decomposition of census data to increase the spatial resolution of population distribution. However, enhancing the temporal resolution of population distribution poses a greater challenge. In this paper, we discuss the development of LandScan USA, a multi-dimensional dasymetric modeling approach, which has allowed creation of very high resolution population distribution data both over space and time. At a spatial resolution of 3 arc seconds (~90m), the initial LandScan USA database contains both a nighttime residential as well as a baseline daytime population distribution that incorporates movement of workers and students. Challenging research issues of disparate and misaligned spatial data integration and modeling to develop a database at a national scale, as well as model verification and validation approaches are illustrated and discussed. Initial analyses indicate a high degree of accuracy for LandScan USA distribution model and data. High resolution population data such as LandScan USA, which describes both distribution and dynamics of human population, clearly has the potential to profoundly impact on multiple domain applications of national and global priority.

  18. Modeling Climate Change Adaptation: Challenges, Recent Developments and Future Directions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wing, Ian Sue

    Modeling Climate Change Adaptation: Challenges, Recent Developments and Future Directions Karen of modeling practice in the field of integrated assessment of climate change and ways forward. Past efforts assessments of climate change have concentrated on developing baseline emissions scenarios and analyzing

  19. Modeling Centralized Organization of Organizational Change Mark Hoogendoorn1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Treur, Jan

    . This model takes into account different phases in a change process considered in Organization Theory, organization verification 1 Introduction Within the literature on Organization Theory changing organizationsModeling Centralized Organization of Organizational Change Mark Hoogendoorn1 , Catholijn M. Jonker2

  20. Business Model Change in Early-Stage Entrepreneurial Firms Facing High Uncertainty BUSINESS MODEL CHANGE IN EARLY-STAGE ENTREPRENEURIAL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mottram, Nigel

    Business Model Change in Early-Stage Entrepreneurial Firms Facing High Uncertainty 1 BUSINESS MODEL Business School, U.K. Changing business models is inevitable for early-stage entrepreneurial firms striving in elements of business models in a set of eight early-stage university spin-offs. Findings suggest

  1. Mapping the Potential for Biofuel Production on Marginal Lands: Differences in Definitions, Data and Models across Scales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lewis, Sarah M

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    D. Land availability for biofuel production. Environ. Sci.of land available for biofuel production. Environ. Sci.so marginal land for biofuel crops is limited. Energy Policy

  2. Urban slum structure: integrating socioeconomic and land cover data to model slum evolution in Salvador, Brazil

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    roofs, white-painted roofs, pavement, and cloud land covers.white-painted roofs, pavement, vegetation, water, sand exposed soil and clouds.

  3. Recent Advances in Regional Climate System Modeling and Climate Change Analyses of Extreme Heat

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miller, Norman L.

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    California hydrology. J. Am. Water Resources Association 39,Land Surface and Ground Water Model for use in WatershedN.L. , 2003: California Water Resources Research, CEC Sept

  4. Can we reconcile differences in estimates of carbon fluxes from land-use change and forestry for the 1990s?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Food and Agricultureuse change to agriculture and pasture and the climate changeAgriculture, Fort Worth, TX, USA, 1991. UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change):

  5. Predictive Fallout Composition Modeling: Improvements and Applications of the Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hooper, David A [ORNL; Jodoin, Vincent J [ORNL; Lee, Ronald W [ORNL; Monterial, Mateusz [ORNL

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper outlines several improvements to the Particle Activity Module of the Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code (DELFIC). The modeling of each phase of the fallout process is discussed within DELFIC to demonstrate the capabilities and limitations with the code for modeling and simulation. Expansion of the DELFIC isotopic library to include actinides and light elements is shown. Several key features of the new library are demonstrated, including compliance with ENDF/B-VII standards, augmentation of hardwired activated soil and actinide decay calculations with exact Bateman calculations, and full physical and chemical fractionation of all material inventories. Improvements to the radionuclide source term are demonstrated, including the ability to specify heterogeneous fission types and the ability to import source terms from irradiation calculations using the Oak Ridge Isotope Generation (ORIGEN) code. Additionally, the dose, kerma, and effective dose conversion factors are revised. Finally, the application of DELFIC for consequence management planning and forensic analysis is presented. For consequence management, DELFIC is shown to provide disaster recovery teams with simulations of real-time events, including the location, composition, time of arrival, activity rates, and dose rates of fallout, accounting for site-specific atmospheric effects. The results from DELFIC are also demonstrated for use by nuclear forensics teams to plan collection routes (including the determination of optimal collection locations), estimate dose rates to collectors, and anticipate the composition of material at collection sites. These capabilities give mission planners the ability to maximize their effectiveness in the field while minimizing risk to their collectors.

  6. Table 1. Annual estimates, uncertainty, and change Figure 1. Area of timberland and forest land by year.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ,000,000 ft3 ) 15,552 1.8 3.9 Net volume of growing-stock trees (1,000,000 ft3 ) 13,903 2.0 1.6 Annual net Area(1,000,000acres) Year Forest Land Timberland 0 1 2 3 4 Oak/hickory Maple/beech/birch Elm

  7. Berkeley Lab's Bill Collins talks about Modeling the Changing...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Berkeley Lab's Bill Collins talks about Modeling the Changing Earth System: Prospects and Challenges. From the 2014 NERSC User's Group Meeting Berkeley Lab's Bill Collins talks...

  8. Post-doctoral Position Title Quantify the net global climate impacts of past and future land-

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pouyanne, Nicolas

    objective is to make this protocol widely available so that other earth system modeling groups outside uses and land use changes in global earth system models, and test the impact of various implementation

  9. Thunderstorms in a changing climate: A cloudresolving modeling study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maccabe, Barney

    prediction of surface water and groundwater dynamics under projected climate change scenarios Thunderstorms in a changing climate: A cloudresolving modeling study Joseph Galewsky@unm.edu One of the potential impacts of a changing climate is an increase in the severity of thunderstorms

  10. The Evaluation of Transportation and Land Use Plans Using Linked Economic and GIS Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnston, Robert A.

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Attempts to base the economic evaluation travel no state isurban economyand and economic evaluations. for devlsing andEvaluation of Transportation and Land Use Plans Using Linked Economic and

  11. Reactive Transport Modeling of Natural Attenuation in Stormwater Bioretention Cells and Under Land Application of Wastewater

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Jingqiu

    2014-04-29T23:59:59.000Z

    application. Due to less water and chemical input, climate patterns may lead to better removal of heavy metals. For land application of Oil and Gas Exploration and Production wastewater, five scenarios were developed to study the impact of chloride, salts...

  12. Predicting Land-Ice Retreat and Sea-Level Rise with the Community Earth System Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lipscomb, William [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-06-19T23:59:59.000Z

    Coastal stakeholders need defensible predictions of 21st century sea-level rise (SLR). IPCC assessments suggest 21st century SLR of {approx}0.5 m under aggressive emission scenarios. Semi-empirical models project SLR of {approx}1 m or more by 2100. Although some sea-level contributions are fairly well constrained by models, others are highly uncertain. Recent studies suggest a potential large contribution ({approx}0.5 m/century) from the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet, linked to changes in Southern Ocean wind stress. To assess the likelihood of fast retreat of marine ice sheets, we need coupled ice-sheet/ocean models that do not yet exist (but are well under way). CESM is uniquely positioned to provide integrated, physics based sea-level predictions.

  13. EA-1936: Proposed Changes to Parcel ED-1 Land Uses, Utility Infrastructure, and Natural Area Management Responsibility, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    NOTE: This EA has been cancelled. This EA will evaluate the environmental impacts of DOE’s proposed modifications to the allowable land uses, utility infrastructure, and Natural Area management responsibility for Parcel ED-1. The purpose of the modifications is to enhance the development potential of the Horizon Center business/industrial park, while ensuring protection of the adjacent Natural Area. The area addressed by the proposed action was evaluated for various industrial/business uses in the Environmental Assessment Addendum for the Proposed Title Transfer of Parcel ED-1, DOE/EA-1113-A.

  14. Albedo estimates for land surface models and support for a new paradigm based on foliage nitrogen concentration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hollinger, D. [USDA Forest Service; Ollinger, S. V. [University of Hew Hampshire; Richardson, A. D. [University of Hew Hampshire; Martin, M. E. [University of New Hampshire; Meyers, T. P. [NOAA ATDD; Dail, D. B. [University of Maine; Scott, N. A. [Queens University, Kingston, ON, Canada; Arkebauer, T. J. [University of Nebraska, Lincoln; Baldocchi, D. D. [University of California, Berkeley; Clark, K. L. [USDA Forest Service; Curtis, Peter [Ohio State University, The, Columbus; Davis, K. J. [Pennsylvania State University; Desai, Desai Ankur R. [University of Wisconsin, Madison; Dragoni, Danilo [Indiana University; Goulden, M. L. [University of California, Irvine; Gu, Lianhong [ORNL; Katul, G. G. [Duke University; Pallardy, Stephen G. [University of Missouri; Pawu, K. T. [University of California, Davis; Schmid, H. P. [IFU, FZK IMK, Institute of Meteorology & Climate, Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany; Stoy, P. C. [University of Edinburgh; Suyker, A. E. [University of Nebraska, Lincoln; Verma, Shashi [University of Nebraska

    2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Vegetation albedo is a critical component of the Earth s climate system, yet efforts to evaluate and improve albedo parameterizations in climate models have lagged relative to other aspects of model development. Here, we calculated growing season albedos for deciduous and evergreen forests, crops, and grasslands based on over 40 site-years of data from the AmeriFlux network and compared them with estimates presently used in the land surface formulations of a variety of climate models. Generally, the albedo estimates used in land surface models agreed well with this data compilation. However, a variety of models using fixed seasonal estimates of albedo overestimated the growing season albedo of northerly evergreen trees. In contrast, climatemodels that rely on a common two-stream albedo submodel provided accurate predictions of boreal needle-leaf evergreen albedo but overestimated grassland albedos. Inverse analysis showed that parameters of the two-stream model were highly correlated. Consistent with recent observations based on remotely sensed albedo, the AmeriFlux dataset demonstrated a tight linear relationship between canopy albedo and foliage nitrogen concentration (for forest vegetation: albedo 50.0110.071%N, r250.91; forests, grassland, and maize: albedo50.0210.067%N, r250.80). However, this relationship saturated at the higher nitrogen concentrations displayed by soybean foliage. We developed similar relationships between a foliar parameter used in the two-stream albedo model and foliage nitrogen concentration. These nitrogen-based relationships can serve as the basis for a new approach to land surface albedo modeling that simplifies albedo estimation while providing a link to other important ecosystem processes.

  15. Global Electricity Technology Substitution Model with Induced Technological Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Watson, Andrew

    of E3MG. As opposed to traditional energy models based on cost optimisation procedures, it focuses, and it is difficult to model the energy sector without including its interactions with global economic activity. E3MGGlobal Electricity Technology Substitution Model with Induced Technological Change Jean

  16. 4, 42654295, 2007 Impact of land-use

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    methodol- ogy which involves coupling a land-use change model with a water balance model and a groundwater groundwater model. Results show that the average recharge slowly de- creases for all scenarios, the decreases / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion EGU 1 Introduction Groundwater is a major source

  17. Learning Structural Changes of Gaussian Graphical Models in Controlled Experiments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Bai

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Graphical models are widely used in scienti fic and engineering research to represent conditional independence structures between random variables. In many controlled experiments, environmental changes or external stimuli can often alter the conditional dependence between the random variables, and potentially produce significant structural changes in the corresponding graphical models. Therefore, it is of great importance to be able to detect such structural changes from data, so as to gain novel insights into where and how the structural changes take place and help the system adapt to the new environment. Here we report an effective learning strategy to extract structural changes in Gaussian graphical model using l1-regularization based convex optimization. We discuss the properties of the problem formulation and introduce an efficient implementation by the block coordinate descent algorithm. We demonstrate the principle of the approach on a numerical simulation experiment, and we then apply the algorithm to...

  18. Language acquisition and implication for language change: A computational model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Clark, Robert A J

    1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Computer modeling techniques, when applied to language acquisition problems, give an often unrealized insight into the diachronic change that occurs in language over successive generations. This paper shows that using ...

  19. RICCI Sophie Global Change and Climate Modeling Team

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    RICCI Sophie Global Change and Climate Modeling Team CERFACS - Toulouse, FRANCE Technical Report TR covariance matrix#17;. This hypothesis stems from the T S water mass properties conservation over long term

  20. A Framework for Modeling Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the US associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources ...

  1. Technology and Technical Change in the MIT EPPA Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jacoby, Henry D.

    Potential technology change has a strong influence on projections of greenhouse gas emissions and costs of control, and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a common device for studying these phenomena. Using ...

  2. Constraining Climate Model Parameters from Observed 20th Century Changes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forest, Chris Eliot

    We present revised probability density functions for climate model parameters (effective climate sensitivity, the rate of deep-ocean heat uptake, and the strength of the net aerosol forcing) that are based on climate change ...

  3. Modeling Water Resource Systems under Climate Change: IGSM-WRS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Strzepek, K.

    Through the integration of a Water Resource System (WRS) component, the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework has been enhanced to study the effects of climate change on managed water-resource systems. ...

  4. Archaeology in the Kilauea East Rift Zone: Part 1, Land-use model and research design, Kapoho, Kamaili and Kilauea Geothermal Subzones, Puna District, Hawaii Island

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burtchard, G.C.; Moblo, P. [International Archaeological Research Inst., Inc., Honolulu, HI (United States)

    1994-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Puna Geothermal Resource Subzones (GRS) project area encompasses approximately 22,000 acres centered on the Kilauea East Rift Zone in Puna District, Hawaii Island. The area is divided into three subzones proposed for geothermal power development -- Kilauea Middle East Rift, Kamaili and Kapoho GRS. Throughout the time of human occupation, eruptive episodes along the rift have maintained a dynamic landscape. Periodic volcanic events, for example, have changed the coastline configuration, altered patterns of agriculturally suitable sediments, and created an assortment of periodically active, periodically quiescent, volcanic hazards. Because of the active character of the rift zone, then, the area`s occupants have always been obliged to organize their use of the landscape to accommodate a dynamic mosaic of lava flow types and ages. While the specific configuration of settlements and agricultural areas necessarily changed in response to volcanic events, it is possible to anticipate general patterns in the manner in which populations used the landscape through time. This research design offers a model that predicts the spatial results of long-term land-use patterns and relates them to the character of the archaeological record of that use. In essence, the environmental/land-use model developed here predicts that highest population levels, and hence the greatest abundance and complexity of identifiable prehistoric remains, tended to cluster near the coast at places that maximized access to productive fisheries and agricultural soils. With the possible exception of a few inland settlements, the density of archaeological remains expected to decrease with distance from the coastline. The pattern is generally supported in the regions existing ethnohistoric and archaeological record.

  5. One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voisin, Nathalie; Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Tesfa, Teklu K.; Li, Hongyi; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-11-18T23:59:59.000Z

    An integrated model is being developed to advance our understanding of the interactions between human activities, terrestrial system and water cycle, and how system interactions will be affected by a changing climate at the regional scale. As a first step towards that goal, a global integrated assessment model including a waterdemand model is coupled offline with a land surface hydrology – routing – water resources management model. A spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to project the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and subbasin representation. The model demonstrated reasonable ability to represent the historical flow regulation and water supply over the Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi and Ohio). Implications for the future flow regulation, water supply and supply deficit are investigated using a climate change projection with the B1 emission scenario which affects both natural flow and water demand. Over the Midwest, changes in flow regulation are mostly driven by the change in natural flow due to the limited storage capacity over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi river basins. The changes in flow and demand have a combined effect on the Missouri Summer regulated flow. The supply deficit tends to be driven by the change in flow over the region. Spatial analysis demonstrates the relationship between the supply deficit and the change in demand over urban areas not along a main river or with limited storage, and over areas upstream of groundwater dependent fields with therefore overestimated demand.

  6. Sensitivity of Surface Flux Simulations to Hydrologic Parameters Based on an Uncertainty Quantification Framework Applied to the Community Land Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Lin, Guang; Ricciuto, Daniel M.

    2012-08-10T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainties in hydrologic parameters could have significant impacts on the simulated water and energy fluxes and land surface states, which will in turn affect atmospheric processes and the carbon cycle. Quantifying such uncertainties is an important step toward better understanding and quantification of uncertainty of integrated earth system models. In this paper, we introduce an uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework to analyze sensitivity of simulated surface fluxes to selected hydrologic parameters in the Community Land Model (CLM4) through forward modeling. Thirteen flux tower footprints spanning a wide range of climate and site conditions were selected to perform sensitivity analyses by perturbing the parameters identified. In the UQ framework, prior information about the parameters was used to quantify the input uncertainty using the Minimum-Relative-Entropy approach. The quasi-Monte Carlo approach was applied to generate samples of parameters on the basis of the prior pdfs. Simulations corresponding to sampled parameter sets were used to generate response curves and response surfaces and statistical tests were used to rank the significance of the parameters for output responses including latent (LH) and sensible heat (SH) fluxes. Overall, the CLM4 simulated LH and SH show the largest sensitivity to subsurface runoff generation parameters. However, study sites with deep root vegetation are also affected by surface runoff parameters, while sites with shallow root zones are also sensitive to the vadose zone soil water parameters. Generally, sites with finer soil texture and shallower rooting systems tend to have larger sensitivity of outputs to the parameters. Our results suggest the necessity of and possible ways for parameter inversion/calibration using available measurements of latent/sensible heat fluxes to obtain the optimal parameter set for CLM4. This study also provided guidance on reduction of parameter set dimensionality and parameter calibration framework design for CLM4 and other land surface models under different hydrologic and climatic regimes.

  7. Changes in Model Lung Surfactant Monolayers Induced by Palmitic Acid

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zasadzinski, Joseph A.

    Changes in Model Lung Surfactant Monolayers Induced by Palmitic Acid Frank Bringezu, Junqi Ding of model lung surfactant lipid monolayers. Adding increasing fractions of palmitic acid (PA) to a 77/23 (wt to the rational design of replacement lung surfactants for the treatment of respiratory distress syndrome

  8. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    USEPA (2010, Feb 3). Renewable fuel standard program (RFS2)Ispra, 2010; p 150. USEPA Renewable Fuel Standard Program (European Parliament, Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC.

  9. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Impacts of United States Biofuel Policies: The Importance ofcoproduct substitution in the biofuel era. Agribusiness 27 (CGE: assessing the EU biofuel mandates with the MIRAGE-BioF

  10. Retrieving snow mass from GRACE terrestrial water storage change with a land surface model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Zong-Liang

    by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radio- meter (AVHRR) is decreasing since middle 1980s in response to global are variations in surface albedo and surface energy budgets, sensible heat and water vapor fluxes-chan- nel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) provide a capa

  11. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    due to first and second generation biofuels and uncertaintyIntroducing First and Second Generation Biofuels into GTAP

  12. Modeling the High Plains Aquifer's Response to Land Use and Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dermyer, Reuben

    2011-06-14T23:59:59.000Z

    The High Plains Aquifer is extremely important to the economic life of Kansas and the surrounding states, but water is being withdrawn from the aquifer much faster than it is being recharged. Due to the importance of ...

  13. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse GasesLife-Cycle Assessment of Biofuels. Environmental Science &cellulosic ethanol. Biotechnol Biofuels 6 (1), 51. Elliott,

  14. arid land: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    and indirect land use change The case for mitigation 359 Practice Note Planning for brownfield land Renewable Energy Websites Summary: space can deliver multiple benefits to...

  15. Integrated science model for assessment of climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jain, A.K.; Wuebbles, D.J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Kheshgi, H.S. [Exxon Research and Engineering Co., Annandale, NJ (United States)

    1994-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Integrated assessment models are intended to represent processes that govern physical, ecological, economic and social systems. This report describes a scientific model relating emissions to global temperature and sea level. This model is intended to be one component of an integrated assessment model which is, of course, much more comprehensive. The model is able to reproduce past changes in CO{sub 2} concentration, global temperature, and sea level. The model is used to estimate the emissions rates required to lead to stabilization of CO{sub 2} at various levels. The model is also used to estimate global temperature rise, the rate of temperature change, and sea level rise driven by IPCC emissions scenarios. The emission of fossil fuel CO{sub 2} is modeled to have the largest long term effect on climate. Results do show the importance of expected changes of trace greenhouse gases other than CO{sub 2} in the near future. Because of the importance of these other trace gases, further work is recommended to more accurately estimate their effects.

  16. Changes in soil organic carbon storage predicted by Earth system models during the 21st century

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    carbon changes in Earth system models K. E. O. Todd-Brown etcarbon changes in Earth system models K. E. O. Todd-Brown etcarbon changes in Earth system models K. E. O. Todd-Brown et

  17. Bioenergy and the importance of land use policy in a carbon-constrained world

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Edmonds, James A.; Wise, Marshall A.

    2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Policies aimed at limiting anthropogenic climate change would result in significant transformations of the energy and land-use systems. However, increasing the demand for bioenergy could have a tremendous impact on land use, and can result in land clearing and deforestation. Wise et al. (2009a,b) analyzed an idealized policy to limit the indirect land use change emissions from bioenergy. The policy, while effective, would be difficult, if not impossible, to implement in the real world. In this paper, we consider several different land use policies that deviate from this first-best, using the Joint Global Change Research Institute’s Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Specifically, these new frameworks are (1) a policy that focuses on just the above-ground or vegetative terrestrial carbon rather than the total carbon, (2) policies that focus exclusively on incentivizing and protecting forestland, and (3) policies that apply an economic penalty on the use of biomass as a proxy to limit indirect land use change emissions. For each policy, we examine its impact on land use, land-use change emissions, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, agricultural supply, and food prices.

  18. Forest cover, carbon sequestration, and wildlife habitat: policy review and modeling of tradeoffs among land-use

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rissman, Adena

    Forest cover, carbon sequestration, and wildlife habitat: policy review and modeling of tradeoffs and services, including timber production, carbon sequestration and storage, scenic amenities, and wildlife habitat. International efforts to mitigate climate change through forest carbon sequestration

  19. A modelling approach to carbon, water and energy feedbacks and interactions across the land-atmosphere interface. 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hill, Timothy C

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The climate is changing and the rate of this change is expected to increase. In the 20th century global surface temperatures rose by 0.6 (±0.2) K. Based on current model predictions, and economic forecasts, global temperature ...

  20. Influence of Dynamic Land Use and Land Cover Change on Simulated Global Terrestrial Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles, Climate-carbon Cycle Feedbacks, and Interactions with Rising CO2 and Anthropogenic Nitrogen Deposition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Hurtt, George C [University of Hew Hampshire

    2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Previous work has demonstrated the sensitivity of terrestrial net carbon exchange to disturbance history and land use patterns at the scale of individual sites or regions. Here we show the influence of land use and land cover dynamics over the historical period 1850-present on global-scale carbon, nutrient, water, and energy fluxes. We also explore the spatial and temporal details of interactions among land use and disturbance history, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide consentation, and increasing anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. Our simulations show that these interactions are significant, and that their importance grows over time, expressed as a fraction of the independent forcing terms. We conclude with an analysis of the influence of these interactions on the sign and magnitude of global climate-carbon cycle feedbacks.

  1. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Raymond S. Bradley; Henry F. Diaz

    2010-12-14T23:59:59.000Z

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earthâ??s climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  2. West Virginia University is a land-grant, research institution founded in 1867. WVU is a student-centered learning community meeting the changing needs of West Virginia and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    1 West Virginia University is a land-grant, research institution founded in 1867. WVU is a student-centered learning community meeting the changing needs of West Virginia and the nation through teaching, research, service, and technology. The West Virginia University Undergraduate Catalog 2010­2011 is a general source

  3. West Virginia University is a land-grant, research institution founded in 1867. WVU is a student-centered learning community meeting the changing needs of West Virginia and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    1 West Virginia University is a land-grant, research institution founded in 1867. WVU is a student-centered learning community meeting the changing needs of West Virginia and the nation through teaching, research, service, and technology. The West Virginia University Undergraduate Catalog 2009­2010 is a general source

  4. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gutowski, William J.

    2013-02-07T23:59:59.000Z

    The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

  5. Quantifying aerosol direct radiative effect with Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer observations: Top-of-atmosphere albedo change by aerosols based on land surface types

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Yang; Li, Qinbin; Kahn, Ralph A; Randerson, James T; Diner, David J

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    coincident MISR and MODIS aerosol optical depths over land2003), Estimates of the spectral aerosol single scatteringalbedo and aerosol radiative effects during SAFARI 2000, J.

  6. An Interactive Multi-Model for Consensus on Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kocarev, Ljupco [University of California, San Diego] [University of California, San Diego

    2014-07-02T23:59:59.000Z

    This project purports to develop a new scheme for forming consensus among alternative climate models, that give widely divergent projections as to the details of climate change, that is more intelligent than simply averaging the model outputs, or averaging with ex post facto weighting factors. The method under development effectively allows models to assimilate data from one another in run time with weights that are chosen in an adaptive training phase using 20th century data, so that the models synchronize with one another as well as with reality. An alternate approach that is being explored in parallel is the automated combination of equations from different models in an expert-system-like framework.

  7. Equity Analysis of Land Use and Transport Plans Using an Integrated Spatial Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rodier, Caroline J.; Abraham, John E.; Dix, Brenda N.; Hunt, John Douglas Dr.

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    or Producer Surplus for PRB Scenario Relative to the BAUemployment location in the PRB scenario 3. Percent ChangeType Between the BAU and the PRB 4. Modules and Information

  8. A validation of heat and carbon fluxes from highresolution land surface and regional models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D'Andrea, Fabio

    ) or regional climate models (RCMs) [Alessandri et al., 2007; Steiner et al., 2009]. [3., 2006; Alessandri et al., 2007; Jarlan et al., 2008; Steiner et al., 2009]. However, the SVAT models models do not account for the role of terrestrial vegetation in the carbon cycle variability [Alessandri

  9. THE CARBON-LAND MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT (C-LAMP): A PROTOTYPE FOR COUPLED BIOSPHERE-ATMOSPHERE MODEL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoffman, Forrest M.

    often referred to as Earth System Models (ESMs). While a number of terrestrial and ocean carbon models

  10. Harmonization of Land-Use Scenarios for the Period 1500-2100: 600 Years of Global Gridded Annual Land-Use Transitions, Wood Harvest, and Resulting Secondary Lands

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hurtt, George; Chini, Louise Parsons; Frolking, Steve; Betts, Richard; Feddema, Johannes; Fischer, Gavin M.; Fisk, J.P.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Houghton, R. A.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Jones, C.; Kindermann, G.; Kinoshita, Tsuguki; Goldeweijk, Kees K.; Riahi, Keywan; Shevliakova, Elena; Smith, Steven J.; Stehfest, Eike; Thomson, Allison M.; Thornton, P.; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Wang, Y.

    2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESM) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005-2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al., 2010). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs.

  11. Multiobjective calibration and sensitivity of a distributed land surface water and energy balance model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Houser, Paul R; Gupta, Hoshin V; Shuttleworth, W. James; Famiglietti, James S

    2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    identification and energy balance models on a tallgrassdata for surface energy balance evaluation of a semiaridWatershed. We are energy balance components over a semiarid

  12. The agroecological matrix as alternative to the land-sparing/agriculture intensi cation model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and inextricable com- ponent of the biodiversity conservation agenda. The Forest Transition Model The European for labor, which depopulates the countryside

  13. Reactive Transport Modeling of Natural Attenuation in Stormwater Bioretention Cells and Under Land Application of Wastewater 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Jingqiu

    2014-04-29T23:59:59.000Z

    hydrocarbon, nutrient, metals, and solids. Vegetation also plays an important role in reducing water volume, and removing nutrients and solutes from the contaminated soil. We used a reactive transport model MIN3P-THM to simulate the natural attenuation...

  14. Quantifying aerosol direct radiative effect with Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer observations: Top-of-atmosphere albedo change by aerosols based on land surface types

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Yang; Li, Qinbin; Kahn, Ralph A; Randerson, James T; Diner, David J

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    www.eosweb.larc.nasa.gov). References Abdou, W. A. , D. J.B. J. Gaitley, and W. A. Abdou (2007), The MISR radiometricAOD) retrievals over land [Abdou et al. , 2005], as well as

  15. agricultural land final: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    land change science, to better understand of the three foci outlined in the science plan of the Land-use and -cover change (LUCC) project (Turner et al Brown, Daniel G. 273...

  16. agricultural land evaluation: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    land change science, to better understand of the three foci outlined in the science plan of the Land-use and -cover change (LUCC) project (Turner et al Brown, Daniel G. First...

  17. Modeling of Damage, Permeability Changes and Pressure Responses during Excavation of the TSX Tunnel in Granitic Rock at URL, Canada

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutqvist, Jonny

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Modeling of Damage, Permeability Changes and Pressureof excavation-induced damage, permeability changes, andrange of approaches to model damage and permeability changes

  18. Effect of One-Dimensional Field Data Assimilation on Land Surface Model Flux Estimates with Implications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Walker, Jeff

    .W. Western1 1 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia 2 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia Email: r Model (CBM) represent the exchange of energy and water between the earth's surface and lower atmosphere

  19. Land cover time profiles from linear mixture models applied to MODIS images P. Oliveira a,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gonçalves, Paulo

    the coarse spatial resolution of satellites such as the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) (e and AQUA launched on December 18, 1999 and on May 4, 2002, respectively. MODIS images correspond to high the pixel. In linear models (LMM) the electromagnetic energy interacts with a single component before being

  20. A Three-Dimensional Ocean-Seaice-Carbon Cycle Model and its Coupling to a Two-Dimensional Atmospheric Model: Uses in Climate Change Studies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dutkiewicz, Stephanie.

    We describe the coupling of a three-dimensional ocean circulation model, with explicit thermodynamic seaice and ocean carbon cycle representations, to a two-dimensional atmospheric/land model. This coupled system has been ...

  1. Impacts of Climate Change on Biofuels Production

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melillo, Jerry M. [Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA (United States)

    2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

    The overall goal of this research project was to improve and use our biogeochemistry model, TEM, to simulate the effects of climate change and other environmental changes on the production of biofuel feedstocks. We used the improved version of TEM that is coupled with the economic model, EPPA, a part of MIT’s Earth System Model, to explore how alternative uses of land, including land for biofuels production, can help society meet proposed climate targets. During the course of this project, we have made refinements to TEM that include development of a more mechanistic plant module, with improved ecohydrology and consideration of plant-water relations, and a more detailed treatment of soil nitrogen dynamics, especially processes that add or remove nitrogen from ecosystems. We have documented our changes to TEM and used the model to explore the effects on production in land ecosystems, including changes in biofuels production.

  2. Progress in coupling Land Ice and Ocean Models in the MPAS Framework |

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOn AprilAElectronicCurvesSpeedingScientificof Scientific andPredictive Models ofl*SciTech

  3. Final report on "Modeling Diurnal Variations of California Land Biosphere CO2 Fluxes"

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fung, Inez

    2014-07-28T23:59:59.000Z

    In Mediterranean climates, the season of water availability (winter) is out of phase with the season of light availability and atmospheric demand for moisture (summer). Multi-year half-hourly observations of sap flow velocities in 26 evergreen trees in a small watershed in Northern California show that different species of evergreen trees have different seasonalities of transpiration: Douglas-firs respond immediately to the first winter rain, while Pacific madrones have peak transpiration in the dry summer. Using these observations, we have derived species-specific parameterization of normalized sap flow velocities in terms of insolation, vapor pressure deficit and near-surface soil moisture. A simple 1-D boundary layer model showed that afternoon temperatures may be higher by 1 degree Celsius in an area with Douglas-firs than with Pacific madrones. The results point to the need to develop a new representation of subsurface moisture, in particular pools beneath the organic soil mantle and the vadose zone. Our ongoing and future work includes coupling our new parameterization of transpiration with new representation of sub-surface moisture in saprolite and weathered bedrock. The results will be implemented in a regional climate model to explore vegetation-climate feedbacks, especially in the dry season.

  4. Modeling the per capita ecological footprint for Dallas County, Texas: Examining demographic, environmental value, land-use, and spatial influences

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ryu, Hyung Cheal

    2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

    This study addresses factors driving the variation in the per capita Ecological Footprint (EF) in Dallas County, Texas. A main hypothesis was that scientifically estimated demography, environmental values, spatial attributes, and land-use patterns...

  5. A Dynamic Simulation of the Indirect Land Use Implications of Recent Biofuel Production and Use in the United States.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oladosu, Gbadebo A [ORNL] [ORNL; Kline, Keith L [ORNL] [ORNL

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The global indirect land use change (ILUC) implications of biofuel use in the United States of America (USA) from 2001 to 2010 are evaluated with a dynamic general equilibrium model. The effects of biofuels production on agricultural land area vary by year; from a net expansion of 0.17 ha per 1000 gallons produced (2002) to a net contraction of 0.13 ha per 1000 gallons (2018) in Case 1 of our simulation. In accordance with the general narrative about the implications of biofuel policy, agricultural land area increased in many regions of the world. However, oil-export dependent economies experienced agricultural land contraction because of reductions in their revenues. Reducing crude oil imports is a major goal of biofuel policy, but the land use change implications have received little attention in the literature. Simulations evaluating the effects of doubling supply elasticities for land and fossil resources show that these parameters can significantly influence the land use change estimates. Therefore, research that provides empirically-based and spatially-detailed agricultural land-supply curves and capability to project future fossil energy prices is critical for improving estimates of the effects of biofuel policy on land use.

  6. Modeling for Free Surface Flow with Phase Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Luo Xiaoyong; Ni Mingjiu; Ying, Alice; Abdou, M. [University of California, Los Angeles (United States)

    2005-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    The development of predictive capability for free surface flow with phase change is essential to evaluate liquid wall protection schemes for various fusion chambers in IFE and MFE. This paper presents a numerical methodology for free surface flow with heat and mass transfer to help resolve feasibility issues encountered in the aforementioned fusion engineering fields. The numerical methodology is conducted within the framework of the incompressible flow with the heat and mass transfer model. We present a new second-order projection method, in conjunction with Approximate-Factorization techniques (AF method) for incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. The level set method was used to capture the free surface of the flow and the deformation of the droplets accurately. This numerical investigation identifies the physics characterizing transient heat and mass transfer of the droplet and the free surface flow. The preliminary results show that the numerical methodology is successful in modeling the free surface with heat and mass transfer, though some severe deformation such as breaking and merging occurs. The versatility of the numerical methodology shows that the work can easily handle complex physical conditions in fusion science and engineering.

  7. Development of An Empirical Water Quality Model for Stormwater Based on Watershed Land Use in Puget Sound

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cullinan, Valerie I.; May, Christopher W.; Brandenberger, Jill M.; Judd, Chaeli; Johnston, Robert K.

    2007-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The Sinclair and Dyes Inlet watershed is located on the west side of Puget Sound in Kitsap County, Washington, U.S.A. (Figure 1). The Puget Sound Naval Shipyard (PSNS), U.S Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), the Washington State Department of Ecology (WA-DOE), Kitsap County, City of Bremerton, City of Bainbridge Island, City of Port Orchard, and the Suquamish Tribe have joined in a cooperative effort to evaluate water-quality conditions in the Sinclair-Dyes Inlet watershed and correct identified problems. A major focus of this project, known as Project ENVVEST, is to develop Water Clean-up (TMDL) Plans for constituents listed on the 303(d) list within the Sinclair and Dyes Inlet watershed. Segments within the Sinclair and Dyes Inlet watershed were listed on the State of Washington’s 1998 303(d) because of fecal coliform contamination in marine water, metals in sediment and fish tissue, and organics in sediment and fish tissue (WA-DOE 2003). Stormwater loading was identified by ENVVEST as one potential source of sediment contamination, which lacked sufficient data for a contaminant mass balance calculation for the watershed. This paper summarizes the development of an empirical model for estimating contaminant concentrations in all streams discharging into Sinclair and Dyes Inlets based on watershed land use, 18 storm events, and wet/dry season baseflow conditions between November 2002 and May 2005. Stream pollutant concentrations along with estimates for outfalls and surface runoff will be used in estimating the loading and ultimately in establishing a Water Cleanup Plan (TMDL) for the Sinclair-Dyes Inlet watershed.

  8. Modeled climate change effects on distributions of Canadian butterfly species

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peterson, A. Townsend; Martí nez-Meyer, Enrique; Gonzá lez-Salazar, Constantino; Hall, Peter W.

    2004-07-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Abstract: Climate change effects on biodiversity are being documented now frequently in the form of changes in phenology and distributional shifts. However, the form that these effects will take over a longer timespan is ...

  9. Modeling Structural Changes in Market Demand and Supply

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Park, Beom Su

    2011-10-21T23:59:59.000Z

    Economic events may cause structural changes in markets. To know the effect of the economic event we should analyze the structural changes in the market demand and supply. The purpose of this dissertation is to analyze the effect of selected...

  10. Explicitly Accounting for Protected Lands within the GCAM 3.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dooley, James J.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2012-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Global Change Assessment Model Version 3.0 defines three different levels of “Protected Lands” within the agricultural and landuse component. These three different scenarios effectively cordon off 3.5% (5.0 million km2) of the Earth’s terrestrial lands in the de minimus Protected Land Scenario, 5.0% (7.20 million km2) in the Core Protected Land Scenario, and 8.2% (11.8 million km2) in the Expanded Protected Land Scenario. None of these scenarios represents the “right” level of Protected Lands for the planet today or tomorrow. Rather, the goal is to create a range of scenarios that can be used in modeling human responses to climate change and the impact those would have on managed and unmanaged terrestrial lands. These scenarios harness the wealth of information in the United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre’s World Database on Protected Areas and its categories of explicit degrees of protection.

  11. Using and losing land to feed a growing world It's taken a long time, but the issue of global climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ellis, Erle C.

    , changing dietary preferences, rising energy prices and increasing needs for bioenergy sources are putting

  12. Modeling Impacts of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change and Variable Precipitation on Hydrology and Water Quality of a Coastal Watershed in Texas

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Castillo, Cesar Ricardo

    2013-05-31T23:59:59.000Z

    delivered total phosphorus load to Copano Bay from the Aransas River for the historical (Hist) baseline (1990-1999) and each scenario (2030-2039). b) Average monthly delivered total phosphorus load to Copano Bay from the Aransas River for the historical...

  13. Modeling of LNG Pool Spreading and Vaporization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Basha, Omar 1988-

    2012-11-20T23:59:59.000Z

    In this work, a source term model for estimating the rate of spreading and vaporization of LNG on land and sea is introduced. The model takes into account the composition changes of the boiling mixture, the varying thermodynamic properties due...

  14. Higher surface ozone concentrations over the Chesapeake Bay than over the adjacent land: Observations and models from the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dickerson, Russell R.

    , in high enough concentrations, is a hazardous secondary air pollutant regulated by the United States t s Observations of ozone are higher over the Chesapeake Bay than areas upwind on land. Dry deposition rates, slower dry deposition rates, and other lesser mechanisms, contribute to the local maximum of ozone over

  15. Modeling the Summertime Climate of Southwest Asia: The Role of Land Surface Processes in Shaping the Climate of Semiarid Regions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marcella, Marc P.

    Presented is a study on the role of land surface processes in determining the summertime climate over the semiarid region of southwest Asia. In this region, a warm surface air temperature bias of 3.5°C is simulated in the ...

  16. arid lands ecology: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    by land use land cover (LULC) change, climate variability, and water regulations. San Antonio, Texas, the 8th largest city... Sahoo, Debabrata 2009-05-15 84 A study of...

  17. arid land ecology: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    by land use land cover (LULC) change, climate variability, and water regulations. San Antonio, Texas, the 8th largest city... Sahoo, Debabrata 2009-05-15 84 A study of...

  18. Sequential Change--Point Detection in GARCH(p; q) Models \\Lambda

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kokoszka, Piotr

    Sequential Change--Point Detection in GARCH(p; q) Models \\Lambda Istv'an Berkes y A. R 84322­3900, USA We suggest a sequential monitoring scheme to detect changes in the parameters of a GARCH. Unlike for linear regression models, the squared residuals of nonlinear time series models like GARCH do

  19. Investigating the Nexus of Climate, Energy, Water, and Land at Decision-Relevant Scales: The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kraucunas, Ian P.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dirks, James A.; Hathaway, John E.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Huang, Maoyi; Jin, Chunlian; Kintner-Meyer, Michael CW; Kleese van Dam, Kerstin; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Li, Hongyi; Moss, Richard H.; Peterson, Marty J.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.; Thomson, Allison M.; Voisin, Nathalie; West, Tristram O.

    2014-02-28T23:59:59.000Z

    The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA) is an innovative modeling system developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to simulate interactions among natural and human systems at scales relevant to regional decision making. PRIMA brings together state-of-the-art models of regional climate, hydrology, agriculture, socioeconomics, and energy systems using a flexible coupling approach. The platform can be customized to inform a variety of complex questions and decisions, such as the integrated evaluation of mitigation and adaptation options across a range of sectors. Research into stakeholder decision support needs underpins the platform's application to regional issues, including uncertainty characterization. Ongoing numerical experiments are yielding new insights into the interactions among human and natural systems on regional scales with an initial focus on the energy-land-water nexus in the upper U.S. Midwest. This paper focuses on PRIMA’s functional capabilities and describes some lessons learned to date about integrated regional modeling.

  20. Primitive Land Plants 37 PRIMITIVE LAND PLANTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koptur, Suzanne

    Primitive Land Plants 37 PRIMITIVE LAND PLANTS These are the plants that were present soon after land was colonized, over 400 mil- lion years ago. A few plants living today are closely related to those ancient plants, and we often call them "living fossils". Two major lineages of plants evolved

  1. The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page; Zhang, Xuesong; Bandaru, Varaprasad; West, Tristram O.; Wise, Marshall A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-19T23:59:59.000Z

    Land use change is a complex response to changing environmental and socioeconomic systems. Historical drivers of land use change include changes in the natural resource availability of a region, changes in economic conditions for production of certain products and changing policies. Most recently, introduction of policy incentives for biofuel production have influenced land use change in the US Midwest, leading to concerns that bioenergy production systems may compete with food production and land conservation. Here we explore how land use may be impacted by future climate mitigation measures by nesting a high resolution agricultural model (EPIC – Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) for the US Midwest within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM – Global Change Assessment Model). This approach is designed to provide greater spatial resolution and detailed agricultural practice information by focusing on the climate mitigation potential of agriculture and land use in a specific region, while retaining the global economic context necessary to understand the far ranging effects of climate mitigation targets. We find that until the simulated carbon prices are very high, the US Midwest has a comparative advantage in producing traditional food and feed crops over bioenergy crops. Overall, the model responds to multiple pressures by adopting a mix of future responses. We also find that the GCAM model is capable of simulations at multiple spatial scales and agricultural technology resolution, which provides the capability to examine regional response to global policy and economic conditions in the context of climate mitigation.

  2. Terrestrial water mass load changes from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seo, K.-W.; Wilson, C. R; Famiglietti, J. S; Chen, J. L; Rodell, M.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of changes in continental water storage, Global Planet.system modeling studies, Water Resour. Res. , 35(2), 583 –Time variations of land water storage from an inversion of 2

  3. Climate change uncertainty evaluation, impacts modelling and resilience of farm scale dynamics in Scotland 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rivington, Michael

    2011-06-28T23:59:59.000Z

    evidence of how primary production components of agriculture in Scotland may change under a future climate. The work used a generic Integrated Modelling Framework to structure the following sequence of investigations: Evaluate a Regional Climate Model...

  4. Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pindyck, Robert S.

    Very little. A plethora of integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been constructed and used to estimate the social cost of carbon (SCC) and evaluate alternative abatement policies. These models have crucial flaws that ...

  5. Climate change and uncertainty in ecological niche modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alvarez, Otto

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    in California." Journal of Climate 8(3): 606- Elith, J. , C.vegetation model for use with climate models: concepts andthe suitability of spatial climate data sets." International

  6. Modelling the reorientation of sea-ice faults as the wind changes direction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feltham, Daniel

    of their length by a particular fraction, the ice pack deformation is neglected and the wind stress is rotatedModelling the reorientation of sea-ice faults as the wind changes direction Alexander V. WILCHINSKY-1290, USA ABSTRACT. A discrete-element model of sea ice is used to study how a 908 change in wind direction

  7. An exploration of the stages of change model in a group treatment program for male batterers

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wells, Robert Davis

    2005-02-17T23:59:59.000Z

    in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY December 2004 Major Subject: Counseling Psychology AN EXPLORATION OF THE STAGES OF CHANGE MODEL IN A GROUP TREATMENT PROGRAM...) __________________________ Michael R. Benz (Head of Department) December 2004 Major Subject: Counseling Psychology iii ABSTRACT An Exploration of the Stages of Change Model in a Group Treatment Program for Male Batterers. (December 2004...

  8. Blood Pressure and Blood Flow Variation during Postural Change from Sitting to Standing: Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Blood Pressure and Blood Flow Variation during Postural Change from Sitting to Standing: Model that regulates blood pressure, and cerebral autoregulation that maintains cerebral perfusion. We present a mathematical model that can predict dynamic changes observed in beat-to-beat arterial blood pressure and middle

  9. Developing the PAGE2002 Model with Endogenous Technical Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alberth, Stephan; Hope, Chris

    and fusion), and Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS). The first of these, renewables, are chosen as they represent the only known final solution to the problem of CO2 abatement without necessarily creating other future environmental problems... 2002 model’s carbon cycle which limits the ocean’s carbon sequestration ability as the temperature rises (Hope, 2004). This result also applies to the 500 and 550 ppm stabilisation scenarios. Furthermore, due to the stochastic nature of the model...

  10. Microsoft Word - MSA - Theory of Change Logic Model (1).docx

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    * Video reflection and presentation 2xyr. * MSA days 2xyr. Instructional Coaching and PLC Support * Includes complete coaching cycles, video review, and modeling throughout...

  11. HYBRID ENERGY-ECONOMY MODELS AND ENDOGENOUS TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and risks, and more than doubling in size. In achieving this profound change, final energy prices technical capacity to produce gaseous and liquid fuels (synthetic natural gas, synthetic gasoline, hydrogen technologies, coal can be converted to electricity and hydrogen at wholesale, plant-gate product prices of 5

  12. IMPROVING PREDICTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: OBSERVATIONAL AND MODELING REQUIREMENTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the atmosphere, largely because of emissions from fossil fuel combustion. An increase in atmospheric CO2 would, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton NY 11973 USA (ses@bnl.gov) Carbon dioxide (CO2) is building up is the extent of climate change that will result from future increases in atmospheric CO2. Confident knowledge

  13. Biomass Energy and Competition for Land

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reilly, John

    We describe an approach for incorporating biomass energy production and competition for land into the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, ...

  14. Contaminated land and groundwater management at Sellafield, a large operational site with significant legacy and contaminated land challenges

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reeve, Phil; Eilbeck, Katherine [British Nuclear Group Sellafield Ltd (United Kingdom)

    2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Sellafield is a former Royal Ordnance Factory used since the 1940's for the production and reprocessing of fissile materials. Leaks and spills from these plants and their associated waste facilities has led to radioactive contaminated ground legacy of up to 20 million m{sup 3}. Consideration of land contamination at Sellafield began in 1976, following discovery of a major leak from a waste storage silo. Over the past three decades there has been a programme of environmental monitoring and several phases of characterization. The latest phase of characterization is a pounds 10 million contract to develop second generation conceptual and numeric models. The Site Licence Company that operates the site has been subject to structural changes due to reorganizations within the British nuclear industry. There has also been a change in emphasis to place an increased importance on accelerated decommissioning. To address these challenges a new contaminated land team and contaminated land and groundwater management plan have been established. Setting and measuring performance against challenging objectives is important. The management plan has to be cognizant of the long timescales (ca. 80 years) for final remediation. Data review, collation, acquisition, analysis, and storage is critical for success. It is equally important to seize opportunities for early environmental gains. It is possible to accelerate the development and delivery of a contaminated land and groundwater management plan by using international experts. (authors)

  15. Engineering change modelling using a function-behaviour-structure scheme

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamraz, Bahram

    2013-11-12T23:59:59.000Z

    an FBS Linkage model is demonstrated. The method’s potential benefits are discussed. Finally, the application of the method to two industrial case studies involving a diesel engine and a scanning electron microscope is presented. The method evaluation...

  16. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; et al

    2015-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmosphericmore »version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5°#2;C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2#2;°C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5°#2;C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO?, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R climate model produces a complete shutdown of deep water formation in the North Atlantic.« less

  17. Modeling the Changing Earth System: Prospects and Challenges

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)Integrated Codes |IsLove Your1 SECTION A.Model Verification andModeling

  18. Precipitation, Recycling, and Land Memory: An Integrated Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dirmeyer, Paul A.

    A synthesis of several approaches to quantifying land–atmosphere interactions is presented. These approaches use data from observations or atmospheric reanalyses applied to atmospheric tracer models and stand-alone land ...

  19. Modeling U.S. water resources under climate change*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in natural systems and runoff, and future scenarios of water demand for power plant cooling are consistent's Future, 2(4): 197­244 (doi: 10.1002/2013EF000214) © 2014 with kind permission from the authors. Reprint-driven, the Program uses extensive Earth system and economic data and models to produce quantitative analysis

  20. From "Stages" of Business Growth to a Dynamic States Model of Entrepreneurial Growth and Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mottram, Nigel

    From "Stages" of Business Growth to a Dynamic States Model of Entrepreneurial Growth and Change and Gumpert, 1985), and virtually all economic models of business creation follow firm birth with firm growth models of new business growth assume a limited number of distinct stages through #12;3 which businesses

  1. Modeling Abrupt Change in Global Sea Level Arising from Ocean - Ice-Sheet Interaction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    David M Holland

    2011-09-24T23:59:59.000Z

    It is proposed to develop, validate, and apply a coupled ocean ice-sheet model to simulate possible, abrupt future change in global sea level. This research is to be carried out collaboratively between an academic institute and a Department of Energy Laboratory (DOE), namely, the PI and a graduate student at New York University (NYU) and climate model researchers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The NYU contribution is mainly in the area of incorporating new physical processes into the model, while the LANL efforts are focused on improved numerics and overall model development. NYU and LANL will work together on applying the model to a variety of modeling scenarios of recent past and possible near-future abrupt change to the configuration of the periphery of the major ice sheets. The project's ultimate goal is to provide a robust, accurate prediction of future global sea level change, a feat that no fully-coupled climate model is currently capable of producing. This proposal seeks to advance that ultimate goal by developing, validating, and applying a regional model that can simulate the detailed processes involved in sea-level change due to oceanÃ?Â? ice-sheet interaction. Directly modeling ocean ice-sheet processes in a fully-coupled global climate model is not a feasible activity at present given the near-complete absence of development of any such causal mechanism in these models to date.

  2. Modeling Dynamic Receptive Field Changes in Primary Visual Cortex Using Inhibitory Learning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The position, size, and shape of the visual receptive field (RF) of some primary visual cortical neurons change dynamically, in response to artificial scotoma conditioning in cats (Pettet & Gilbert, 1992) and to retinal lesions in cats and monkeys (DarianSmith & Gilbert, 1995). The "EXIN" learning rules (Marshall, 1995) are used to model dynamic RF changes. The EXIN model is compared with an adaptation model (Xing & Gerstein, 1994) and the LISSOM model (Sirosh & Miikkulainen, 1994; Sirosh et al., 1996). To emphasize the role of the lateral inhibitory learning rules, the EXIN and the LISSOM simulations were done with only lateral inhibitory learning. During scotoma conditioning, the EXIN model without feedforward learning produces centrifugal expansion of RFs initially inside the scotoma region, accompanied by increased responsiveness, without changes in spontaneous activation. The EXIN model without feedforward learning is more consistent with the neurophysiological data than are the a...

  3. The conformation change of model polymers in stochastic flow fields: Flow through fixed beds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shaqfeh, Eric

    The conformation change of model polymers in stochastic flow fields: Flow through fixed beds Alisa that as a polymer solution flows through a fixed bed, the pressure drop neces- sary to pump the solution may

  4. A Model of Global Learning: How Students Change Through International High-Impact Experiences 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Redwine, Tobin Dean

    2014-12-12T23:59:59.000Z

    is warranted. The purpose of this study was to develop a model to explain the viewpoints of student changes by students who participate in a study abroad experience. To meet that purpose, three objectives were utilized. First, a qualitative phenomenology...

  5. Essays on empirical time series modeling with causality and structural change 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Jin Woong

    2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

    In this dissertation, three related issues of building empirical time series models for financial markets are investigated with respect to contemporaneous causality, dynamics, and structural change. In the first essay, nation-wide industry...

  6. How important is diversity for capturing environmental-change responses in ecosystem models?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Prowe, A. E. F.

    Marine ecosystem models used to investigate how global change affects ocean ecosystems and their functioning typically omit pelagic plankton diversity. Diversity, however, may affect functions such as primary production ...

  7. Modeling a solar energy collector with an integrated phase-change material

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guerra, Alexander Adrian

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this thesis, a finite-element computer model was created to simulate a solar air heater with an integrated-phase change material. The commercially available finite element package ADINA-Fluid was used to generate the ...

  8. School Land Board (Texas)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The School Land Board oversees the use of land owned by the state or held in trust for use and benefit by the state or one of its departments, boards, or agencies. The Board is responsible for...

  9. Chesapeake Forest Lands (Maryland)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Chesapeake Forest Lands are most of the former land holdings of the Chesapeake Forest Products Company, which now includes more than 66,000 acres in five lower Eastern Shore counties. These...

  10. Land Reclamation Act (Missouri)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    It is the policy of the state to balance surface mining interests with the conservation of natural resources and land preservation. This Act authorizes the Land Reclamation Commission of the...

  11. A semi-Markov model with memory for price changes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D'Amico, Guglielmo

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks by a model of returns using a semi-Markov approach. More precisely we assume that the intraday returns are described by a discrete time homogeneous semi-Markov which depends also on a memory index. The index is introduced to take into account periods of high and low volatility in the market. First of all we derive the equations governing the process and then theoretical results have been compared with empirical findings from real data. In particular we analyzed high frequency data from the Italian stock market from first of January 2007 until end of December 2010.

  12. Using Dempster-Shafer Theory to model uncertainty in climate change and environmental impact

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Using Dempster-Shafer Theory to model uncertainty in climate change and environmental impact]. The design wave overtopping in a context of changing climate cannot be deterministically predicted due defense structure due to (1) uncertain elevation of the mean water level and (2) uncertain level of storm

  13. Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dommenget, Dietmar

    Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model Dietmar on the surface energy balance by very simple repre- sentations of solar and thermal radiation, the atmospheric and cold regions to warm more than other regions. Keywords Climate dynamics Á Climate change Á Climate

  14. Evaluation of Reconstructed Images of Regional Lung Changes Using a Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adler, Andy

    Evaluation of Reconstructed Images of Regional Lung Changes Using a Model Robert P, Patterson1 A and Patterson 2004, Yang and Patterson 2010). In order to answer questions about regional lung changes, two regions were created in the posterior portion of the right lung where the resistivity can be independently

  15. Survey of Critical Wetlands Bureau of Land Management Lands

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Survey of Critical Wetlands Bureau of Land Management Lands South Park, Park County, Colorado 2003 Delivery Colorado State University #12;Survey of Critical Wetlands Bureau of Land Management Lands South

  16. Global economic changes and income inequality: a test of four competing models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Morris, Theresa Marie

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    GLOBAL ECONOMIC CHANGES AND INCOME INEQUALITY: A TEST OF FOUR COMPETING MODELS A Thesis by THERESA MARK MORRIS Submitted to the OIEce of Graduate Studies of Texas ARM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree... of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1996 Major Subject: Sociology GLOBAL ECONOMIC CHANGES AND INCOME INEQUALITY: A TEST OF FOUR COMPETING MODELS A Thesis by THERESA MARIE MORRIS Submitted to Texas ARM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements...

  17. Agriculture and Climate Change in Global Scenarios: Why Don't the Models Agree

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Gerald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Calvin, Katherine V.; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; Mueller, C.; Reilly, J. M.; Robertson, Richard; Sands, Ronald; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs makes direct use of weather inputs. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes of key variables such as prices, production, and trade. These divergent outcomes arise from differences in model inputs and model specification. The goal of this paper is to review climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By providing common productivity drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes are reduced. All models show higher prices in 2050 because of negative productivity shocks from climate change. The magnitude of the price increases, and the adaptation responses, differ significantly across the various models. Substantial differences exist in the structural parameters affecting demand, area, and yield, and should be a topic for future research.

  18. A regional climate model study of how biomass burning aerosol impacts land-atmosphere interactions over the Amazon

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chin, Mian

    wind divergence in the southern Amazon and anomalous wind convergence over the equatorial western radiation, consequently changing the surface energy and water fluxes, the atmospheric thermo- dynamic, Rainfall, and Climate (LBA-SMOCC), Smoke/Sulfates, Clouds and Radiation-Brazil (SCAR-B), ground based

  19. Land Use and natUraL resoUrces

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    California at Davis, University of

    Land Use and natUraL resoUrces summer 2012 Including: Climate Change and Local Planning Strategies Overview of Environmental Statistics Green Building Design Studio CONTINuING AND PrOFessIONAL eDuCATION #12Ndar........................................................................................................................4 laNd USe plaNNiNg Climate Change and Local Planning Strategies

  20. Modeling the observed proton aurora and ionospheric convection responses to changes in the IMF clock angle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lockwood, Mike

    Modeling the observed proton aurora and ionospheric convection responses to changes in the IMF clock angle: 1. Persistence of cusp proton aurora K. Throp, M. Lockwood,1 B. S. Lanchester, and S. K employ a numerical model of cusp ion precipitation and proton aurora emission to fit variations

  1. A cognitive-consistency based model of population wide attitude change.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lakkaraju, Kiran; Speed, Ann Elizabeth

    2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Attitudes play a significant role in determining how individuals process information and behave. In this paper we have developed a new computational model of population wide attitude change that captures the social level: how individuals interact and communicate information, and the cognitive level: how attitudes and concept interact with each other. The model captures the cognitive aspect by representing each individuals as a parallel constraint satisfaction network. The dynamics of this model are explored through a simple attitude change experiment where we vary the social network and distribution of attitudes in a population.

  2. Climate Change Impacts for Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment Part 2. Models and Validation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomson, Allison M.; Rosenberg, Norman J.; Izaurralde, R Cesar C.; Brown, Robert A.

    2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    As CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how a changing climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the conterminous United States using a suite of climate change predictions from General Circulation Models (GCMs) as described in Part 1. Here we describe the agriculture model EPIC and the HUMUS water model and validate them with historical crop yields and streamflow data. We compare EPIC simulated grain and forage crop yields with historical crop yields from the US Department of Agriculture and find an acceptable level of agreement for this study. The validation of HUMUS simulated streamflow with estimates of natural streamflow from the US Geological Survey shows that the model is able to reproduce significant relationships and capture major trends.

  3. Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kicklighter, D W

    Climate change will alter ecosystem metabolism and may lead to a redistribution of vegetation and changes in fire regimes in Northern Eurasia over the 21st century. Land management decisions will interact with these ...

  4. A Large-Scale, High-Resolution Hydrological Model Parameter Data Set for Climate Change Impact Assessment for the Conterminous US

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oubeidillah, Abdoul A [ORNL] [ORNL; Kao, Shih-Chieh [ORNL] [ORNL; Ashfaq, Moetasim [ORNL] [ORNL; Naz, Bibi S [ORNL] [ORNL; Tootle, Glenn [University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa] [University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    To extend geographical coverage, refine spatial resolution, and improve modeling efficiency, a computation- and data-intensive effort was conducted to organize a comprehensive hydrologic dataset with post-calibrated model parameters for hydro-climate impact assessment. Several key inputs for hydrologic simulation including meteorologic forcings, soil, land class, vegetation, and elevation were collected from multiple best-available data sources and organized for 2107 hydrologic subbasins (8-digit hydrologic units, HUC8s) in the conterminous United States at refined 1/24 (~4 km) spatial resolution. Using high-performance computing for intensive model calibration, a high-resolution parameter dataset was prepared for the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC simulation was driven by DAYMET daily meteorological forcing and was calibrated against USGS WaterWatch monthly runoff observations for each HUC8. The results showed that this new parameter dataset may help reasonably simulate runoff at most US HUC8 subbasins. Based on this exhaustive calibration effort, it is now possible to accurately estimate the resources required for further model improvement across the entire conterminous United States. We anticipate that through this hydrologic parameter dataset, the repeated effort of fundamental data processing can be lessened, so that research efforts can emphasize the more challenging task of assessing climate change impacts. The pre-organized model parameter dataset will be provided to interested parties to support further hydro-climate impact assessment.

  5. Land-Use History and Contemporary Management Inform an Ecological Reference Model for Longleaf Pine Woodland Understory Plant Communities.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brudvig, Lars A. [Department of Plant Biology, Michigan State University; Orrock, John L. [Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin; Damschen, Ellen I. [Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin; et al, et al

    2014-01-23T23:59:59.000Z

    Ecological restoration is frequently guided by reference conditions describing a successfully restored ecosystem; however, the causes and magnitude of ecosystem degradation vary, making simple knowledge of reference conditions insufficient for prioritizing and guiding restoration. Ecological reference models provide further guidance by quantifying reference conditions, as well as conditions at degraded states that deviate from reference conditions. Many reference models remain qualitative, however, limiting their utility. We quantified and evaluated a reference model for southeastern U.S. longleaf pine woodland understory plant communities. We used regression trees to classify 232 longleaf pine woodland sites at three locations along the Atlantic coastal plain based on relationships between understory plant community composition, soils lol(which broadly structure these communities), and factors associated with understory degradation, including fire frequency, agricultural history, and tree basal area. To understand the spatial generality of this model, we classified all sites together. and for each of three study locations separately. Both the regional and location-specific models produced quantifiable degradation gradients–i.e., progressive deviation from conditions at 38 reference sites, based on understory species composition, diversity and total cover, litter depth, and other attributes. Regionally, fire suppression was the most important degrading factor, followed by agricultural history, but at individual locations, agricultural history or tree basal area was most important. At one location, the influence of a degrading factor depended on soil attributes. We suggest that our regional model can help prioritize longleaf pine woodland restoration across our study region; however, due to substantial landscape-to-landscape variation, local management decisions should take into account additional factors (e.g., soil attributes). Our study demonstrates the utility of quantifying degraded states and provides a series of hypotheses for future experimental restoration work. More broadly, our work provides a framework for developing and evaluating reference models that incorporate multiple, interactive anthropogenic drivers of ecosystem degradation.

  6. Modelling the economic and social consequences of drought under future projections of climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jenkins, Katie L.

    2012-01-10T23:59:59.000Z

    on agriculture (scenario one), seasonal drought effects on agriculture (scenario two), and sudden drought effects on agriculture (scenario three). .............................................................................. 140 Figure 6.2: Simulated change... in VA of Spain’s economy during the 1990-1995 drought modelled using SPI-12 for the three agricultural scenarios ................................................ 142 Figure 6.3: Simulated change in VA of Spain’s economy during the 1998-2002 drought...

  7. The new GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM2/LM2: Evaluation with prescribed SST simulations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bretherton, Chris

    _____________________________________________________________________________ 1 The members of the GFDL Global Atmospheric Model Development Team include Jeffrey L. Anderson+ , V@ , P. C. D. Milly# , Mary J. Nath+ , Jeffrey J. Ploshay+ , V. Ramaswamy+ , M. Daniel Schwarzkopf sensible and latent heat storage, groundwater storage, and stomatal resistance. The performance

  8. Analysis of permafrost thermal dynamics and response to climate change in the CMIP5 Earth System Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koven, C.D.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    coupled climate-carbon earth system models part i: PhysicalChange in the CMIP5 Earth System Models  Koven, C.D. , W.J.output from a set of Earth System Models (ESMs) (Table 1)

  9. Farming: A Climate Change Culprit

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Farming: A Climate Change Culprit Farming: A Climate Change Culprit Simulations run at NERSC show impact of land-use change on African monsoon precipitation June 7, 2014 | Tags:...

  10. Final Report on Hierarchical Coupled Modeling and Prediction of Regional Climate Change in the Atlantic Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Saravanan, Ramalingam [Texas A& M University

    2011-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

    During the course of this project, we have accomplished the following: a) Carried out studies of climate changes in the past using a hierarchy of intermediate coupled models (Chang et al., 2008; Wan et al 2009; Wen et al., 2010a,b) b) Completed the development of a Coupled Regional Climate Model (CRCM; Patricola et al., 2011a,b) c) Carried out studies testing hypotheses testing the origin of systematic errors in the CRCM (Patricola et al., 2011a,b) d) Carried out studies of the impact of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, in the context of barrier layer interactions (Balaguru et al)

  11. Hierarchical Marginal Land Assessment for Land Use Planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kang, Shujiang [ORNL; Post, Wilfred M [ORNL; Wang, Dali [ORNL; Nichols, Dr Jeff A [ORNL; Bandaru, Vara Prasad [ORNL

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Marginal land provides an alternative potential for food and bioenergy production in the face of limited land resources; however, effective assessment of marginal lands is not well addressed. Concerns over environmental risks, ecosystem services and sustainability for marginal land have been widely raised. The objective of this study was to develop a hierarchical marginal land assessment framework for land use planning and management. We first identified major land functions linking production, environment, ecosystem services and economics, and then classified land resources into four categories of marginal land using suitability and limitations associated with major management goals, including physically marginal land, biologically marginal land, environmental-ecological marginal land, and economically marginal land. We tested this assessment framework in south-western Michigan, USA. Our results indicated that this marginal land assessment framework can be potentially feasible on land use planning for food and bioenergy production, and balancing multiple goals of land use management. We also compared our results with marginal land assessment from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and land capability classes (LCC) that are used in the US. The hierarchical assessment framework has advantages of quantitatively reflecting land functions and multiple concerns. This provides a foundation upon which focused studies can be identified in order to improve the assessment framework by quantifying high-resolution land functions associated with environment and ecosystem services as well as their criteria are needed to improve the assessment framework.

  12. Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, A.; Weaver, C. P.; Morefield, Philip; Huang, Jin; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Adams, P. J.; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, J.; Mahoney, Hardee

    2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices.

  13. Soil erosion from sugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate change induced seasonal precipitation variations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Quinton, John

    of adaptive land-use management for climate change response strategies in the agricultural sector. © 2007; Conservation agriculture; Erosion modelling 1. Introduction Climate change of anthropogenic origin is widelySoil erosion from sugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate change induced seasonal

  14. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Auffhammer, Maximilian [University of California at Berkeley; Hsiang, Solomon M. [Princeton University; Schlenker, Wolfram [Columbia University; Sobel, Adam H. [Columbia University

    2013-06-28T23:59:59.000Z

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  15. Progress Report 2008: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Drake, John B [ORNL; Worley, Patrick H [ORNL; Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Jones, Phil [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This project employs multi-disciplinary teams to accelerate development of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), based at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). A consortium of eight Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories collaborate with NCAR and the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). The laboratories are Argonne (ANL), Brookhaven (BNL) Los Alamos (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore (LLNL), Oak Ridge (ORNL), Pacific Northwest (PNNL) and Sandia (SNL). The work plan focuses on scalablity for petascale computation and extensibility to a more comprehensive earth system model. Our stated goal is to support the DOE mission in climate change research by helping ... To determine the range of possible climate changes over the 21st century and beyond through simulations using a more accurate climate system model that includes the full range of human and natural climate feedbacks with increased realism and spatial resolution.

  16. Integrated Assessment of Hadley Centre (HadCM2) Climate Change Projections on Agricultural Productivity and Irrigation Water Supply in the Conterminous United States.I. Climate change scenarios and impacts on irrigation water supply simulated with the HUMUS model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rosenberg, Norman J.; Brown, Robert A.; Izaurralde, R Cesar C.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2003-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper describes methodology and results of a study by researchers at PNNL contributing to the water sector study of the U.S. National Assessment of Climate Change. The vulnerability of water resources in the conterminous U.S. to climate change in 10-y periods centered on 2030 and 2095--as projected by the HadCM2 general circulation model--was modeled with HUMUS (Hydrologic Unit Model of the U.S.). HUMUS consists of a GIS that provides data on soils, land use and climate to drive the hydrology model Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The modeling was done at the scale of the 2101 8-digit USGS hydrologic unit areas (HUA). Results are aggregated to the 4-digit and 2-digit (Major Water Resource Region, MWRR) scales for various purposes. Daily records of temperature and precipitation for 1961-1990 provided the baseline climate. Water yields (WY)--sum of surface and subsurface runoff--increases from the baseline period over most of the U.S. in 2030 and 2095. In 2030, WY increases in the western US and decreases in the central and southeast regions. Notably, WY increases by 139 mm from baseline in the Pacific NW. Decreased WY is projected for the Lower Mississippi and Texas Gulf basins, driven by higher temperatures and reduced precipitation. The HadCM2 2095 scenario projects a climate significantly wetter than baseline, resulting in WY increases of 38%. WY increases are projected throughout the eastern U.S. WY also increases in the western U.S. Climate change also affects the seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Early snowmelt is induced in western basins, leading to dramatically increased WYs in late winter and early spring. The simulations were run at current (365 ppm) and elevated (560 ppm) atmospheric CO2 concentrations to account for the potential impacts of the CO2-fertilization effect. The effects of climate change scenario were considerably greater than those due to elevated CO2 but the latter, overall, decreased losses and augmented increases in water yield.

  17. Modelling the thermo-mechanical volume change behaviour of compacted expansive clays

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Modelling the thermo-mechanical volume change behaviour of compacted expansive clays Anh-Minh Tang expansive clays are often considered as a possible buffer material in high-level deep radioactive waste disposals. After the installation of waste canisters, the engineered clay barriers are subjected to thermo

  18. BEHAVIOR CHANGES IN SIS STD MODELS WITH SELECTIVE JAMES M. HYMAN + AND JIA LI #

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hyman, James "Mac"

    the epidemic threshold. Key words. STD models, selective mixing, balance constraint, behavior changes% of the population is infected by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and that in the Bronx in New York City 13 of Energy under contracts W­7405­ENG­36 and DOE Applied Mathematical Sciences Program contract KC­07

  19. BEHAVIOR CHANGES IN SIS STD MODELS WITH SELECTIVE JAMES M. HYMAN AND JIA LI

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hyman, James "Mac"

    the epidemic threshold. Key words. STD models, selective mixing, balance constraint, behavior changes% of the population is infected by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and that in the Bronx in New York City 13 of Energy under contracts W-7405-ENG-36 and DOE Applied Mathematical Sciences Program contract KC-07

  20. CHANGE OF STRUCTURE IN FINANCIAL TIME SERIES, LONG RANGE DEPENDENCE AND THE GARCH MODEL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mikosch, Thomas

    CHANGE OF STRUCTURE IN FINANCIAL TIME SERIES, LONG RANGE DEPENDENCE AND THE GARCH MODEL THOMAS having as limit a Gaussian #12;eld. In the case of GARCH(p; q) processes a statistic closely related limit theorem for this statistic under the hypothesis of a GARCH(p; q) sequence with a #12;nite 4th

  1. Modeling and Generating Daily Changes in Market Variables Using A Multivariate Mixture of Normal Distributions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Jin

    Distributions Jin Wang Department of Mathematics and Computer Science Valdosta State University Valdosta, GA 31698-0040 January 28, 2000 Abstract The mixture of normal distributions provides a useful extension of the normal distribution for modeling of daily changes in market variables with fatter-than-normal tails

  2. DAMAGE DETECTION BASED ON STRUCTURAL RESPONSE TO TEMPERATURE CHANGES AND MODEL UPDATING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    DAMAGE DETECTION BASED ON STRUCTURAL RESPONSE TO TEMPERATURE CHANGES AND MODEL UPDATING Marian The paper proposes use of measured structural response to temperature loads for purposes of damage identification. As opposed to the most common approaches, which rely on suppressing temperature effects in damage

  3. Selected translated abstracts of Russian-language climate-change publications. 4: General circulation models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burtis, M.D. [comp.] [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; Razuvaev, V.N.; Sivachok, S.G. [All-Russian Research Inst. of Hydrometeorological Information--World Data Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation)

    1996-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report presents English-translated abstracts of important Russian-language literature concerning general circulation models as they relate to climate change. Into addition to the bibliographic citations and abstracts translated into English, this report presents the original citations and abstracts in Russian. Author and title indexes are included to assist the reader in locating abstracts of particular interest.

  4. Net accumulation of the Greenland ice sheet: High resolution modeling of climate changes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Born, Andreas

    : Kiilsholm, S., J. H. Christensen, K. Dethloff, and A. Rinke, Net accumulation of the Greenland ice sheetNet accumulation of the Greenland ice sheet: High resolution modeling of climate changes Sissi, Denmark Klaus Dethloff and Annette Rinke Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research

  5. Comparison of problem model change mechanisms issued from CSP and TRIZ

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    1 Comparison of problem model change mechanisms issued from CSP and TRIZ RRoollaanndd DDee GGuuiioo satisfaction problem (CSP), on the other hand. Keywords: over-constrained problems, dialectical methods issued from CSP and TRIZ 2 · a set of evaluation parameters, which represent the objective of the problem

  6. Studying the Causes of Recent Climate Change Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kammen, Daniel M.

    1 Studying the Causes of Recent Climate Change Ben Santer Program for Climate Model Diagnosis of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate" "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities" "Most

  7. Modeling Alveolar Volume Changes During Periodic Breathing in Heterogeneously Ventilated Lungs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jeavons, Peter

    Modeling Alveolar Volume Changes During Periodic Breathing in Heterogeneously Ventilated Lungs SARA-uniform breathing pattern for a lung with an inhomogeneous gas distribution, such as that observed in some subjects of irregular breathing caused by small, poorly ventilated regions of the lung. Presented here is an extension

  8. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO sub 2 and climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth's surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society's ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  9. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth`s surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society`s ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  10. Baseline for Climate Change: Modeling Watershed Aquatic Biodiversity Relative to Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maurakis, Eugene G

    2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Objectives of the two-year study were to (1) establish baselines for fish and macroinvertebrate community structures in two mid-Atlantic lower Piedmont watersheds (Quantico Creek, a pristine forest watershed; and Cameron Run, an urban watershed, Virginia) that can be used to monitor changes relative to the impacts related to climate change in the future; (2) create mathematical expressions to model fish species richness and diversity, and macroinvertebrate taxa and macroinvertebrate functional feeding group taxa richness and diversity that can serve as a baseline for future comparisons in these and other watersheds in the mid-Atlantic region; and (3) heighten people’s awareness, knowledge and understanding of climate change and impacts on watersheds in a laboratory experience and interactive exhibits, through internship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, a week-long teacher workshop, and a website about climate change and watersheds. Mathematical expressions modeled fish and macroinvertebrate richness and diversity accurately well during most of the six thermal seasons where sample sizes were robust. Additionally, hydrologic models provide the basis for estimating flows under varying meteorological conditions and landscape changes. Continuations of long-term studies are requisite for accurately teasing local human influences (e.g. urbanization and watershed alteration) from global anthropogenic impacts (e.g. climate change) on watersheds. Effective and skillful translations (e.g. annual potential exposure of 750,000 people to our inquiry-based laboratory activities and interactive exhibits in Virginia) of results of scientific investigations are valuable ways of communicating information to the general public to enhance their understanding of climate change and its effects in watersheds.

  11. Forecasting Recovery Opportunities for the Red-cockaded Woodpecker on Private Lands in Eastern North Carolina Using a Spatial Model of Tree Age

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dube, Amanda M

    2014-11-21T23:59:59.000Z

    Currently, recovery efforts for the federally endangered red-cockaded woodpecker (RCW; Picoides borealis) primarily occur on public lands throughout the Southeast, where proven management practices ensure availability of mature, open pine savannahs...

  12. New Technologies to Reclaim Arid Lands User's Manual

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    W. K. Ostler

    2002-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Approximately 70 percent of all U.S. military training lands are located in arid and semi-arid areas. Training activities in such areas frequently adversely affect vegetation, damaging plants and reducing the resilience of vegetation to recover once disturbed. Fugitive dust resulting from a loss of vegetation creates additional problems for human health, increasing accidents due to decreased visibility, and increasing maintenance costs for roads, vehicles, and equipment. Under conventional technologies to mitigate these impacts, it is estimated that up to 35 percent of revegetation projects in arid areas will fail due to unpredictable natural environmental conditions, such as drought, and reclamation techniques that were inadequate to restore vegetative cover in a timely and cost-effective manner. New reclamation and restoration techniques are needed in desert ranges to help mitigate the adverse effects of military training and other activities to arid-land environments. In 1999, a cooperative effort between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the US. Department of Defense (DoD), and selected university scientists was undertaken to focus on mitigating military impacts in arid lands. As arid lands are impacted due to DoD and DOE activities, biological and soil resources are gradually lost and the habitat is altered. A conceptual model of that change in habitat quality is described for varying levels of disturbance in the Mojave Desert. As the habitat quality degrades and more biological and physical resources are lost from training areas, greater costs are required to return the land to sustainable levels. The purpose of this manual is to assist land managers in recognizing thresholds associated with habitat degradation and provide reclamation planning and techniques that can reduce the costs of mitigation for these impacted lands to ensure sustainable use of these lands. The importance of reclamation planning is described in this manual with suggestions about establishing project objectives, scheduling, budgeting, and selecting cost-effective techniques. Reclamation techniques include sections describing: (1) erosion control (physical, chemical, and biological), (2) site preparation, (3) soil amendments, (4) seeding, (5) planting, (6) grazing and weed control, (7) mulching, (8) irrigation, and (9) site protection. Each section states the objectives of the technique, the principles, an in-depth look at the techniques, and any special considerations as it relates to DoD or DOE lands. The need for monitoring and remediation is described to guide users in monitoring reclamation efforts to evaluate their cost-effectiveness. Costs are provided for the proposed techniques for the major deserts of the southwestern U.S. showing the average and range of costs. A set of decision tools are provided in the form of a flow diagram and table to guide users in selecting effective reclamation techniques to achieve mitigation objectives. Recommendations are provided to help summarize key reclamation principles and to assist users in developing a successful program that contributes to sustainable uses of DoD and DOE lands. The users manual is helpful to managers in communicating to installation management the needs and consequences of training decisions and the costs required to achieve successful levels of sustainable use. This users manual focuses on the development of new reclamation techniques that have been implemented at the National Training Center at Fort Irwin, California, and are applicable to most arid land reclamation efforts.

  13. Regression Model Predicting Appraised Unit Value of Land in San Francisco County from Number of and Distance to Public Transit Stops using GIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Son, Kiyoung

    2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

    ). Second, researchers have investigated the impact of public transit nodes in various areas on appraised land value (Cevero and Duncan 2004, Landis et al 1995, Gatzlaff and Smith 1993). Although many researchers have examined the relationship between... (Lutzenhiser and Netusil 2001, Schultz and King 2001, Baranzini and Schaerer 2011). Second, researchers have investigated the impact of public transit nodes in various areas on appraised land value (Cevero and Duncan 2004, Landis et al 1995, Gatzlaff...

  14. Agriculture, Land Use, Energy and Carbon Emission Impacts of Global Biofuel Mandates to Mid-Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wise, Marshall A.; Dooley, James J.; Luckow, Patrick; Calvin, Katherine V.; Kyle, G. Page

    2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Three potential future scenarios of expanded global biofuel production are presented here utilizing the GCAM integrated assessment model. These scenarios span a range that encompasses on the low end a continuation of existing biofuel production policies to two scenarios that would require an expansion of current targets as well as an extension of biofuels targets to other regions of the world. Conventional oil use is reduced by 4-8% in the expanded biofuel scenarios, which results in a decrease of in CO2 emissions on the order of 1-2 GtCO2/year by mid-century from the global transportation sector. The regional distribution of crop production is relatively unaffected, but the biofuels targets do result in a marked increase in the production of conventional crops used for energy. Producer prices of sugar and corn reach levels about 12% and 7% above year 2005 levels, while the increased competition for land causes the price of food crops such as wheat, although not used for bioenergy in this study, to increase by 1 to 2%. The amount of land devoted to growing all food crops and dedicated bioenergy crops is increased by about 10% by 2050 in the High biofuel case, with concurrent decreases in other uses of land such as forest and pasture. In both of the expanded biofuels cases studied, there is an increase in net cumulative carbon emissions for the first couple of decades due to these induced land use changes. However, the difference in net cumulative emissions from the biofuels expansion decline by about 2035 as the reductions in energy system emissions exceed further increases in emissions from land use change. Even in the absence of a policy that would limit emissions from land use change, the differences in net cumulative emissions from the biofuels scenarios reach zero by 2050, and are decreasing further over time in both cases.

  15. Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Codron, Francis

    Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 J relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model climate and Earth System Models, both developed in France and contributing to the 5th coupled model

  16. MODIS Collection 5 global land cover: Algorithm refinements and characterization of new datasets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wisconsin at Madison, University of

    information is required to parameterize land surface processes in regional-to-global scale Earth system models

  17. On the connection between continental-scale land surface processes and the tropical climate in a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ma, Hsi-Yen; Mechoso, C. R.; Xue, Yongkang; Xiao, Heng; Neelin, David; Ji, Xuan

    2013-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

    The impact of global tropical climate to perturbations in land surface processes (LSP) are evaluated using perturbations given by different LSP representations of continental-scale in a global climate model that includes atmosphere-ocean interactions. One representation is a simple land scheme, which specifies climatological albedos and soil moisture availability. The other representation is the more comprehensive Simplified Simple Biosphere Model, which allows for interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical processes. The results demonstrate that LSP processes such as interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical processes have strong impacts on the seasonal mean states and seasonal cycles of global precipitation, clouds, and surface air temperature. The impact is especially significant over the tropical Pacific. To explore the mechanisms for such impact, different LSP representations are confined to selected continental-scale regions where strong interactions of climate-vegetation biophysical processes are present. We find that the largest impact is mainly from LSP perturbations over the tropical African continent. The impact is through anomalous convective heating in tropical Africa due to changes in the surface heat fluxes, which in turn affect basinwide teleconnections in the Pacific through equatorial wave dynamics. The modifications in the equatorial Pacific climate are further enhanced by strong air-sea coupling between surface wind stress and upwelling, as well as effect of ocean memory. Our results further suggest that correct representations of land surface processes, land use change and the associated changes in the deep convection over tropical Africa are crucial to reducing the uncertainty when performing future climate projections under different climate change scenarios.

  18. Multi-lane hybrid traffic flow model: a theory on the impacts of lane-changing maneuvers

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Daganzo, Carlos F.

    is parsimonious; it requires only one more parameter than the simple kinematic wave model. The extra parameter flow models do not address lane-changing phenomena properly. Extensions to kinematic wave (KW) theory

  19. Purdue extension PurdueLandUseTeam

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Purdue extension Val Slack Jon Cain Co-Chairs, PurdueLandUseTeam PurdueUniversity ID-351 CAFOs. The role of the Agricultural & Natural Resources (ANR) Educator as a plan commission member is to help plan and natural resources and provide insight into the impact on these two areas when there are proposed changes

  20. Our goal is to develop a modeling formalism for representing state and change of state in general cyber systems, and model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Objective Our goal is to develop a modeling formalism for representing state and change of state. Approach We represent cyber systems as discrete mathematical objects interacting across hierarchically

  1. The Role of Asia in Mitigating Climate Change: Results from the Asia Modeling Exercise

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Krey, Volker; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Jiang, Kejun; Kainuma, M.; Kriegler, Elmar; Luderer, Gunnar; Shukla, Priyadarshi R.

    2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In 2010, Asia accounted for 60% of global population, 39% of Gross World Product, 44% of global energy consumption and nearly half of the world’s energy system CO2 emissions. Thus, Asia is an important region to consider in any discussion of climate change or climate change mitigation. This paper explores the role of Asia in mitigating climate change, by comparing the results of 23 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. We focus our analysis on seven key areas: base year data, future energy use and emissions absent climate policy, the effect of urban and rural development on future energy use and emissions, the role of technology in emissions mitigation, regional emissions mitigation, and national climate policies

  2. Modelling downstream change in river flood power: a novel approach based on the UK Flood Estimation Handbook

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Birmingham, University of

    Modelling downstream change in river flood power: a novel approach based on the UK Flood Estimation" (McEwen, 1994: 359). Lawler (1992) recognised that little was known about the downstream change. It is suggested that downstream change in discharge is best represented as a power function in terms of channel

  3. Executive Summary Mitigation of Climate Change through

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brown, Sally

    Executive Summary Mitigation of Climate Change through Land Reclamation with Biosolids: Carbon storage in reclaimed mine soils, life cycle analysis of biosolids reclamation, and ecosystem services; Pacala and Socolow, 2004). · Land reclamation with municipal wastewater solids (biosolids) can play

  4. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic Using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassano, John [Principal Investigator

    2013-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

    The primary research task completed for this project was the development of the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). This involved coupling existing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land models using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) coupler (CPL7). RACM is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model, the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean model, the CICE sea ice model, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. A secondary research task for this project was testing and evaluation of WRF for climate-scale simulations on the large pan-Arctic model domain used in RACM. This involved identification of a preferred set of model physical parameterizations for use in our coupled RACM simulations and documenting any atmospheric biases present in RACM.

  5. Addressing trend-related changes within cumulative effects studies in water resources planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Canter, L.W., E-mail: envimptr@aol.com [University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma and President, Canter Associates, Inc., Horseshoe Bay, TX (United States); Chawla, M.K. [ERDC-CERL, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Champaign, IL (United States)] [ERDC-CERL, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Champaign, IL (United States); Swor, C.T. [Canter Associates, Inc., Frankewing, TN (United States)] [Canter Associates, Inc., Frankewing, TN (United States)

    2014-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Summarized herein are 28 case studies wherein trend-related causative physical, social, or institutional changes were connected to consequential changes in runoff, water quality, and riparian and aquatic ecological features. The reviewed cases were systematically evaluated relative to their identified environmental effects; usage of analytical frameworks, and appropriate models, methods, and technologies; and the attention given to mitigation and/or management of the resultant causative and consequential changes. These changes also represent important considerations in project design and operation, and in cumulative effects studies associated therewith. The cases were grouped into five categories: institutional changes associated with legislation and policies (seven cases); physical changes from land use changes in urbanizing watersheds (eight cases); physical changes from land use changes and development projects in watersheds (four cases); physical, institutional, and social changes from land use and related policy changes in river basins (three cases); and multiple changes within a comprehensive study of land use and policy changes in the Willamette River Basin in Oregon (six cases). A tabulation of 110 models, methods and technologies used in the studies is also presented. General observations from this review were that the features were unique for each case; the consequential changes were logically based on the causative changes; the analytical frameworks provided relevant structures for the studies, and the identified methods and technologies were pertinent for addressing both the causative and consequential changes. One key lesson was that the cases provide useful, “real-world” illustrations of the importance of addressing trend-related changes in cumulative effects studies within water resources planning. Accordingly, they could be used as an “initial tool kit” for addressing trend-related changes.

  6. Siting Renewable Energy: Land Use and Regulatory Context

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Outka, Uma

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This article takes up the increasingly important land use question of siting for renewable energy. As concern over climate change grows, new policies are being crafted at all levels of government to support renewable energy as a way of reducing...

  7. Recent Trends in Land Tenure in Texas.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Motheral, Joe

    1944-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    colored; in Harrison County, 70 per cent; in Gregg County, 60 per cent; in San Jacinto County, 57 per cent; and in Walker County, 51 per cent. Almost one-third of the farm operators in counties along the lower reaches of the Colorado and Brazos rivers...RECENT TRENDS IN LAND TENURE IN TEXAS JOE MOTHERAL Division of Farm and Ranch Economics [Blank Page in Original Bulletin] Public interest in the subject of land tenure has been height- ened by the swift changes, in the tenure pattern...

  8. Modeling of Oceanic Gas Hydrate Instability and Methane Release in Response to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reagan, Matthew; Reagan, Matthew T.; Moridis, George J.

    2008-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Paleooceanographic evidence has been used to postulate that methane from oceanic hydrates may have had a significant role in regulating global climate, implicating global oceanic deposits of methane gas hydrate as the main culprit in instances of rapid climate change that have occurred in the past. However, the behavior of contemporary oceanic methane hydrate deposits subjected to rapid temperature changes, like those predicted under future climate change scenarios, is poorly understood. To determine the fate of the carbon stored in these hydrates, we performed simulations of oceanic gas hydrate accumulations subjected to temperature changes at the seafloor and assessed the potential for methane release into the ocean. Our modeling analysis considered the properties of benthic sediments, the saturation and distribution of the hydrates, the ocean depth, the initial seafloor temperature, and for the first time, estimated the effect of benthic biogeochemical activity. The results show that shallow deposits--such as those found in arctic regions or in the Gulf of Mexico--can undergo rapid dissociation and produce significant methane fluxes of 2 to 13 mol/yr/m{sup 2} over a period of decades, and release up to 1,100 mol of methane per m{sup 2} of seafloor in a century. These fluxes may exceed the ability of the seafloor environment (via anaerobic oxidation of methane) to consume the released methane or sequester the carbon. These results will provide a source term to regional or global climate models in order to assess the coupling of gas hydrate deposits to changes in the global climate.

  9. Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2013-04-13T23:59:59.000Z

    This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

  10. Sensitivity of global tropical climate to land surface processes: Mean state and interannual variability

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ma, Hsi-Yen; Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Xue, Yongkang

    2013-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines the sensitivity of global tropical climate to land surface processes (LSP) using an atmospheric general circulation model both uncoupled (with prescribed SSTs) and coupled to an oceanic general circulation model. The emphasis is on the interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical processes, which have first order influence on the surface energy and water budgets. The sensitivity to those processes is represented by the differences between model simulations, in which two land surface schemes are considered: 1) a simple land scheme that specifies surface albedo and soil moisture availability, and 2) the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model (SSiB), which allows for consideration of interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical process. Observational datasets are also employed to assess the reality of model-revealed sensitivity. The mean state sensitivity to different LSP is stronger in the coupled mode, especially in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, seasonal cycle of SSTs in the equatorial Pacific, as well as ENSO frequency, amplitude, and locking to the seasonal cycle of SSTs are significantly modified and more realistic with SSiB. This outstanding sensitivity of the atmosphere-ocean system develops through changes in the intensity of equatorial Pacific trades modified by convection over land. Our results further demonstrate that the direct impact of land-atmosphere interactions on the tropical climate is modified by feedbacks associated with perturbed oceanic conditions ("indirect effect" of LSP). The magnitude of such indirect effect is strong enough to suggest that comprehensive studies on the importance of LSP on the global climate have to be made in a system that allows for atmosphere-ocean interactions.

  11. A nonstoichiometric structural model to characterize changes in the nickel hydroxide electrode during cycling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Srinivasan, Venkat; Bahne, C. Cornilsen; Weidner, John W.

    2003-09-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Experimental capacities and mass changes are recorded using an electrochemical quartz crystal microbalance during the first 9 charge and discharge cycles of nickel hydroxide thin films cycled in 3.0 weight percent (wt%) potassium hydroxide electrolyte. For the first time, the film capacities have been corrected for the oxygen evolution side reaction, and the data used as input into the point defect-containing structural model to track the changes that occur during short-term cycling. Variations in capacity and mass during formation and charge/discharge cycling are related to changes in the point defect parameters, thus providing a structural origin for the unique experimental variations observed here and often reported in the literature, but previously unexplained. Proton-, potassium-, and water-content vary in the active material during charge/discharge cycling. The observed capacity loss, or ''capacity fade'', is explained by incomplete incorporation of potassium ions in (or near) the nickel vacancy during charge, as additional protons are then allowed to occupy the vacant lattice site. The increase in water content during reduction parallels the expansion of the electrode that is well known during cycling. This result confirms the origin of the swelling phenomenon as being caused by water incorporation. The model and methodology developed in this paper can be used to correlate electrochemical signatures with material chemical structure.

  12. Land-use Leakage

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Kim, Son H.; Wise, Marshall A.; Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page

    2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Leakage occurs whenever actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in one part of the world unleash countervailing forces elsewhere in the world so that reductions in global emissions are less than emissions mitigation in the mitigating region. While many researchers have examined the concept of industrial leakage, land-use policies can also result in leakage. We show that land-use leakage is potentially as large as or larger than industrial leakage. We identify two potential land-use leakage drivers, land-use policies and bioenergy. We distinguish between these two pathways and run numerical experiments for each. We also show that the land-use policy environment exerts a powerful influence on leakage and that under some policy designs leakage can be negative. International “offsets” are a potential mechanism to communicate emissions mitigation beyond the borders of emissions mitigating regions, but in a stabilization regime designed to limit radiative forcing to 3.7 2/m2, this also implies greater emissions mitigation commitments on the part of mitigating regions.

  13. Energy and land use

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report addresses the land use impacts of past and future energy development and summarizes the major federal and state legislation which influences the potential land use impacts of energy facilities and can thus influence the locations and timing of energy development. In addition, this report describes and presents the data which are used to measure, and in some cases, predict the potential conflicts between energy development and alternative uses of the nation's land resources. The topics section of this report is divided into three parts. The first part describes the myriad of federal, state and local legislation which have a direct or indirect impact upon the use of land for energy development. The second part addresses the potential land use impacts associated with the extraction, conversion and combustion of energy resources, as well as the disposal of wastes generated by these processes. The third part discusses the conflicts that might arise between agriculture and energy development as projected under a number of DOE mid-term (1990) energy supply and demand scenarios.

  14. The uses and limits of economic models as a climate change policy tool: A summary report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zimmerman, M.B.; Nitze, W.A.

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Alliance to Save Energy initiated this workshop as a means of bringing climate change policy makers and economists together on the eve of the opening negotiating session for a climate change convention. The one and one-half day workshop was attended by 16 analysts who provided presentations on modeling approaches. There is a need for policy makers to be better able to evaluate the growing literature estimating the potential cost of policy options. Our hope is that this report, to be presented at the conclusion of the negotiations on the framework convention on climate change at the Earth Summit in Brazil, will help policy makers in the US and elsewhere evaluate the costs and benefits of national climate change mitigation policies. Although it is still unclear how far the convention will go in requiring emissions reductions, many countries are proceeding with detailed plans to reduce domestic carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions. Our goal in holding the workshop and writing this report is to spark a new level of dialogue between the producers and users of information on the costs and benefits of climate mitigation policies leading to the development of more cost-effective policy solutions at the national and international levels.

  15. The uses and limits of economic models as a climate change policy tool: A summary report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zimmerman, M.B.; Nitze, W.A.

    1991-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    The Alliance to Save Energy initiated this workshop as a means of bringing climate change policy makers and economists together on the eve of the opening negotiating session for a climate change convention. The one and one-half day workshop was attended by 16 analysts who provided presentations on modeling approaches. There is a need for policy makers to be better able to evaluate the growing literature estimating the potential cost of policy options. Our hope is that this report, to be presented at the conclusion of the negotiations on the framework convention on climate change at the Earth Summit in Brazil, will help policy makers in the US and elsewhere evaluate the costs and benefits of national climate change mitigation policies. Although it is still unclear how far the convention will go in requiring emissions reductions, many countries are proceeding with detailed plans to reduce domestic carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions. Our goal in holding the workshop and writing this report is to spark a new level of dialogue between the producers and users of information on the costs and benefits of climate mitigation policies leading to the development of more cost-effective policy solutions at the national and international levels.

  16. Integrated dynamic landscape analysis and modeling system (IDLAMS) : installation manual.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Z.; Majerus, K. A.; Sundell, R. C.; Sydelko, P. J.; Vogt, M. C.

    1999-02-24T23:59:59.000Z

    The Integrated Dynamic Landscape Analysis and Modeling System (IDLAMS) is a prototype, integrated land management technology developed through a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the US Army Corps of Engineers Construction Engineering Research Laboratories (USACERL). Dr. Ronald C. Sundell, Ms. Pamela J. Sydelko, and Ms. Kimberly A. Majerus were the principal investigators (PIs) for this project. Dr. Zhian Li was the primary software developer. Dr. Jeffrey M. Keisler, Mr. Christopher M. Klaus, and Mr. Michael C. Vogt developed the decision analysis component of this project. It was developed with funding support from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP), a land/environmental stewardship research program with participation from the US Department of Defense (DoD), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). IDLAMS predicts land conditions (e.g., vegetation, wildlife habitats, and erosion status) by simulating changes in military land ecosystems for given training intensities and land management practices. It can be used by military land managers to help predict the future ecological condition for a given land use based on land management scenarios of various levels of training intensity. It also can be used as a tool to help land managers compare different land management practices and further determine a set of land management activities and prescriptions that best suit the needs of a specific military installation.

  17. Integrated dynamic landscape analysis and modeling system (IDLAMS) : programmer's manual.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Klaus, C. M.; Li, Z.; Majerus, K. A.; Sundell, R. C.; Sydelko, P. J.; Vogt, M. C.

    1999-02-24T23:59:59.000Z

    The Integrated Dynamic Landscape Analysis and Modeling System (IDLAMS) is a prototype, integrated land management technology developed through a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the US Army Corps of Engineers Construction Engineering Research Laboratories (USACERL). Dr. Ronald C. Sundell, Ms. Pamela J. Sydelko, and Ms. Kimberly A. Majerus were the principal investigators (PIs) for this project. Dr. Zhian Li was the primary software developer. Dr. Jeffrey M. Keisler, Mr. Christopher M. Klaus, and Mr. Michael C. Vogt developed the decision analysis component of this project. It was developed with funding support from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP), a land/environmental stewardship research program with participation from the US Department of Defense (DoD), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). IDLAMS predicts land conditions (e.g., vegetation, wildlife habitats, and erosion status) by simulating changes in military land ecosystems for given training intensities and land management practices. It can be used by military land managers to help predict the future ecological condition for a given land use based on land management scenarios of various levels of training intensity. It also can be used as a tool to help land managers compare different land management practices and further determine a set of land management activities and prescriptions that best suit the needs of a specific military installation.

  18. Land Use and natUraL resoUrces

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    California at Davis, University of

    in other areas. Students in our Green Building and Sustainable Design and Renewable Energy certificate1 Land Use and natUraL resoUrces Fall 2013 Including: Mitigation and Conservation Banking Climate making changes in our lives. We move to another city, change jobs or change our diet to be healthier. UC

  19. Managing carbon in a multiple use world: The implications of land-use decision context for carbon management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neff, Jason

    Managing carbon in a multiple use world: The implications of land-use decision context for carbon, Boulder, 80309-0488, United States 1. Introduction Carbon management through changes in land, 2010). Human land-use change is the second largest contributor of increasing carbon dioxide

  20. Lands & Community

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)Integrated Codes |Is Your Home asLCLSLaboratoryRowland to receiveLand ManagementLands

  1. Title: Canada Land Inventory: Land Capability for Recreation Data Creator /

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Title: Canada Land Inventory: Land Capability for Recreation Data Creator / Copyright Owner: National Archives of Canada, Visual and Sound Archives Division Publisher: National Archives of Canada, Visual and Sound Archives Division; developed under the auspices of Environment Canada; distributed

  2. Title: Canada Land Inventory: Land Capability for Ungulates Data Creator /

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Title: Canada Land Inventory: Land Capability for Ungulates Data Creator / Copyright Owner: National Archives of Canada, visual and Sound Archives Division Publisher: National Archives of Canada, Visual and Sound Archives Division; developed under the auspices of Environment Canada; distributed

  3. Title: Canada Land Inventory: Land Capability for Agriculture Data Creator /

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Title: Canada Land Inventory: Land Capability for Agriculture Data Creator / Copyright Owner: National Archives of Canada, Visual and Sound Archives Division Publisher: National Archives of Canada, Visual and Sound Archives Division; developed under the auspices of Environment Canada; distributed

  4. National Forest Land Scheme

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and Community Right to Buy. Communities are encouraged to register an interest in the land they wish to buy Ministers to make a late registration of interest. When Forestry Commission Scotland decides to sell, a community organisation could consider the opportunities for working in partnership with Forestry Commission

  5. County Land Preservation and Use Commissions (Iowa)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This ordinance creates Land Preservation and Use Commissions in each county to provide for the orderly use and development of land, to protect agricultural land from nonagricultural development,...

  6. Validation of a blowby model using experimental results in motoring condition with the change of compression ratio and engine speed

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aghdam, E. Abdi [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil (Iran); Kabir, M.M. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil (Iran); Department of Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Aliabad Katoul Branch, Golestan (Iran)

    2010-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Blowby and gas flow through the cylinder-piston-ring crevices are phenomena that affect the engine performance and exhaust emissions. Also these phenomena influence the cylinder pressure and temperature and the charge amount during a cycle. The study and validation of a sub-model for these phenomena in the absence of engine combustion deducts all effects arisen from the combustion event. During the current study, blowby sub-model and gas flow through crevices under motoring conditions has been noticed using a volume-orifice theory and the experimental results measured from a research engine. Blowby geometric parameters, consisting of a few critical cross-section areas (orifice areas) and volumes (top land and inter-ring crevice volumes), were measured in ambient temperature and corrected for hot running conditions. The cylinder pressure during cycle was measured by a piezoelectric pressure transducer and the low pressure parts of the cycle were measured using a piezoresistive pressure transducer for referencing purposes. The obtained results show a very good agreement between experimentally measured pressure data and model output for three compression ratios of 7.6, 10.2, 12.4 and three engine speeds of 750, 1500 and 2000 rpm, so that the maximum deviation was almost 5%. The model predicted that the maximum mass loss increased with increase of compression ratio and decreased with increase of engine speed. Also the peak mass loss position happened within the range of 3-9 CA after top dead center. After occurrence of the maximum loss, a reverse flow from the top land crevice into the cylinder was predicted in the model. (author)

  7. Measurement and Modeling of Sorption-Induced Strain and Permeability Changes in Coal

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eric P. Robertson

    2005-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Strain caused by the adsorption of gases was measured in samples of subbituminous coal from the Powder River basin of Wyoming, U.S.A., and high-volatile bituminous coal from the Uinta-Piceance basin of Utah, U.S.A. using a newly developed strain measurement apparatus. The apparatus can be used to measure strain on multiple small coal samples based on the optical detection of the longitudinal strain. The swelling and shrinkage (strain) in the coal samples resulting from the adsorption of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, methane, helium, and a mixture of gases was measured. Sorption-induced strain processes were shown to be reversible and easily modeled with a Langmuir-type equation. Extended Langmuir theory was applied to satisfactorily model strain caused by the adsorption of gas mixtures using the pure gas Langmuir strain constants. The amount of time required to obtain accurate strain data was greatly reduced compared to other strain measurement methods. Sorption-induced changes in permeability were also measured as a function of pres-sure. Cleat compressibility was found to be variable, not constant. Calculated variable cleat-compressibility constants were found to correlate well with previously published data for other coals. During permeability tests, sorption-induced matrix shrinkage was clearly demonstrated by higher permeability values at lower pore pressures while holding overburden pressure constant. Measured permeability data were modeled using three dif-ferent permeability models from the open literature that take into account sorption-induced matrix strain. All three models poorly matched the measured permeability data because they overestimated the impact of measured sorption-induced strain on permeabil-ity. However, by applying an experimentally derived expression to the measured strain data that accounts for the confining overburden pressure, pore pressure, coal type, and gas type, the permeability models were significantly improved.

  8. Double multiple-relaxation-time lattice Boltzmann model for solid-liquid phase change with natural convection in porous media

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, Qing

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, a double multiple-relaxation-time lattice Boltzmann model is developed for simulating transient solid-liquid phase change problems in porous media at the representative elementary volume scale. The model uses two different multiple-relaxation-time lattice Boltzmann equations, one for the flow field and the other for the temperature field with nonlinear latent heat source term. The model is based on the generalized non-Darcy formulation, and the solid-liquid phase change interface is traced through the liquid fraction which is determined by the enthalpy method. The model is validated by numerical simulations of conduction melting in a semi-infinite space, solidification in a semi-infinite corner, and convection melting in a square cavity filled with porous media. The numerical results demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the present model for simulating transient solid-liquid phase change problems in porous media.

  9. GCAM 3.0 Agriculture and Land Use: Data Sources and Methods

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Calvin, Katherine V.; Emanuel, William R.; Nathan, Mayda; Zhou, Yuyu

    2011-12-12T23:59:59.000Z

    This report presents the data processing methods used in the GCAM 3.0 agriculture and land use component, starting from all source data used, and detailing all calculations and assumptions made in generating the model inputs. The report starts with a brief introduction to modeling of agriculture and land use in GCAM 3.0, and then provides documentation of the data and methods used for generating the base-year dataset and future scenario parameters assumed in the model input files. Specifically, the report addresses primary commodity production, secondary (animal) commodity production, disposition of commodities, land allocation, land carbon contents, and land values.

  10. Aggressive landing maneuvers for unmanned aerial vehicles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bayraktar, Selcuk

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    VTOL (Vertical Take Off and Landing) vehicle landing is considered to be a critically difficult task for both land, marine, and urban operations. This thesis describes one possible control approach to enable landing of ...

  11. Stretched-Grid Model Intercomparison Project

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gruner, Daniel S.

    - Land-sea differences - Surface parameters Applications (besides regional climate variability and change, Russia #12;OUTLINE 1. INTRODUCTION: Exploring the variable- resolution stretched-grid approach (for grid- point models: Staniforth and Mitchell 1978, and for spectral models: Schmidt 1977) to regional climate

  12. Integrated modeling of CO2 storage and leakage scenarios including transitions between super- and sub-critical conditions, and phase change between liquid and gaseous CO2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pruess, K.

    2011-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Storage of CO{sub 2} in saline aquifers is intended to be at supercritical pressure and temperature conditions, but CO{sub 2} leaking from a geologic storage reservoir and migrating toward the land surface (through faults, fractures, or improperly abandoned wells) would reach subcritical conditions at depths shallower than 500-750 m. At these and shallower depths, subcritical CO{sub 2} can form two-phase mixtures of liquid and gaseous CO{sub 2}, with significant latent heat effects during boiling and condensation. Additional strongly non-isothermal effects can arise from decompression of gas-like subcritical CO{sub 2}, the so-called Joule-Thomson effect. Integrated modeling of CO{sub 2} storage and leakage requires the ability to model non-isothermal flows of brine and CO{sub 2} at conditions that range from supercritical to subcritical, including three-phase flow of aqueous phase, and both liquid and gaseous CO{sub 2}. In this paper, we describe and demonstrate comprehensive simulation capabilities that can cope with all possible phase conditions in brine-CO{sub 2} systems. Our model formulation includes: (1) an accurate description of thermophysical properties of aqueous and CO{sub 2}-rich phases as functions of temperature, pressure, salinity and CO{sub 2} content, including the mutual dissolution of CO{sub 2} and H{sub 2}O; (2) transitions between super- and subcritical conditions, including phase change between liquid and gaseous CO{sub 2}; (3) one-, two-, and three-phase flow of brine-CO{sub 2} mixtures, including heat flow; (4) non-isothermal effects associated with phase change, mutual dissolution of CO{sub 2} and water, and (de-) compression effects; and (5) the effects of dissolved NaCl, and the possibility of precipitating solid halite, with associated porosity and permeability change. Applications to specific leakage scenarios demonstrate that the peculiar thermophysical properties of CO{sub 2} provide a potential for positive as well as negative feedbacks on leakage rates, with a combination of self-enhancing and self-limiting effects. Lower viscosity and density of CO{sub 2} as compared to aqueous fluids provides a potential for self-enhancing effects during leakage, while strong cooling effects from liquid CO{sub 2} boiling into gas, and from expansion of gas rising towards the land surface, act to self-limit discharges. Strong interference between fluid phases under three-phase conditions (aqueous - liquid CO{sub 2} - gaseous CO{sub 2}) also tends to reduce CO{sub 2} fluxes. Feedback on different space and time scales can induce non-monotonic behavior of CO{sub 2} flow rates.

  13. Methods for modeling impact-induced reactivity changes in small reactors.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tallman, Tyler N.; Radel, Tracy E.; Smith, Jeffrey A.; Villa, Daniel L.; Smith, Brandon M. (U. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI); Radel, Ross F.; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Wilson, Paul Philip Hood (U. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI)

    2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper describes techniques for determining impact deformation and the subsequent reactivity change for a space reactor impacting the ground following a potential launch accident or for large fuel bundles in a shipping container following an accident. This technique could be used to determine the margin of subcriticality for such potential accidents. Specifically, the approach couples a finite element continuum mechanics model (Pronto3D or Presto) with a neutronics code (MCNP). DAGMC, developed at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, is used to enable MCNP geometric queries to be performed using Pronto3D output. This paper summarizes what has been done historically for reactor launch analysis, describes the impact criticality analysis methodology, and presents preliminary results using representative reactor designs.

  14. Temporal Land Cover Analysis for Net Ecosystem Improvement

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ke, Yinghai; Coleman, Andre M.; Diefenderfer, Heida L.

    2013-04-09T23:59:59.000Z

    We delineated 8 watersheds contributing to previously defined river reaches within the 1,468-km2 historical floodplain of the tidally influenced lower Columbia River and estuary. We assessed land-cover change at the watershed, reach, and restoration site scales by reclassifying remote-sensing data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Change Analysis Program’s land cover/land change product into forest, wetland, and urban categories. The analysis showed a 198.3 km2 loss of forest cover during the first 6 years of the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program, 2001–2006. Total measured urbanization in the contributing watersheds of the estuary during the full 1996-2006 change analysis period was 48.4 km2. Trends in forest gain/loss and urbanization differed between watersheds. Wetland gains and losses were within the margin of error of the satellite imagery analysis. No significant land cover change was measured at restoration sites, although it was visible in aerial imagery, therefore, the 30-m land-cover product may not be appropriate for assessment of early-stage wetland restoration. These findings suggest that floodplain restoration sites in reaches downstream of watersheds with decreasing forest cover will be subject to increased sediment loads, and those downstream of urbanization will experience effects of increased impervious surfaces on hydrologic processes.

  15. Deregulating 'the rural'; threatening land management regime. Experiences of space in the Tuscan countryside

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Orsini, Stefano

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this research the relationships between landownership and the use of rural land are investigated and analyzed through an empirical study, conducted in Tuscany, which was based on interviews with landowners. Through the development of farmers' typologies, the results highlight a general process of decoupling form land, which appears through disinvestments in farming activity and changing the intended uses of rural land and buildings. The dynamic of liberalization (and urbanization) of rural space arises challenges to the future of land management system, which seems to be going to suffer a radical restructuring. Another relevant and connected issue emerges by this case study, that is the volatility of rural land development practices.

  16. Improving parameter estimation and water table depth simulation in a land surface model using GRACE water storage and estimated base flow data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lo, Min-Hui; Famiglietti, James S; Yeh, P. J.-F.; Syed, T. H

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2007), Estimating ground water storage changes in thestorage (i.e. , all of the snow, ice, surface water, soil moisture, and ground-

  17. Policy message Access to land and land rights,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richner, Heinz

    agriculture can reduce land deg- radation, support agricultural development, and mitigate rural poverty conservation tech- niques by producing food, fodder, fibre, or fuel. · Sustainable farming practices produce

  18. Land Management - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)Integrated Codes |Is Your Home asLCLSLaboratoryRowland to receiveLand Management About

  19. Bringing climate change down to earth : science and participation in Canadian and Australian climate change campaigns

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Padolsky, Miriam Elana

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    while reducing air and water pollutants. Individualclimate change, rivers and water, forests, land health andand cooling, 11.1% from water heating, 7.5% from appliances,

  20. Land conversion in Amazonia and Northern South America : influences on regional hydrology and ecosystem response

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Knox, Ryan Gary

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A numerical model of the terrestrial biosphere (Ecosystem Demography Model) is compbined with an atmospheric model (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) to investigate how land conversion in the Amazon and ...

  1. FTT:Power : A global model of the power sector with induced technological change and natural resource depletion

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mercure, J -F

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This work introduces a model of Future Technology Transformations for the power sector (FTT:Power), a representation of global power systems based on market competition, induced technological change (ITC) and natural resource use and depletion. It is the first component of a family of sectoral bottom-up models of technology, designed for integration into the global macroeconometric model E3MG. ITC occurs as a result of technological learning produced by cumulative investment and leads to highly nonlinear, irreversible and path dependent technological transitions. The model uses a dynamic coupled set of logistic differential equations. As opposed to traditional bottom-up energy models based on systems optimisation, such differential equations offer an appropriate treatment of the times and structure of change involved in sectoral technology transformations, as well as a much reduced computational load. Resource use and depletion are represented by local cost-supply curves, which give rise to different regional...

  2. CHANGING OUR WAYS SCOTLAND'S CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAMME

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Introduction 15 Overview of emission trends at sector level 15 Energy sector 18 Transport sector 29 Agriculture, forestry and land use sector 37 Business sector 44 Residential sector 51 Public sector 56 Waste management in light of sound scientific evidence that Scotland's climate will change significantly over the coming

  3. Climate change and agriculture : global and regional effects using an economic model of international trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reilly, John M.

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Empirical estimates of the economic welfare implications of the impact of climate change on global agricultural production are made. Agricultural yield changes resulting from climate scenarios associated with a doubling ...

  4. Coastal communities and climate change : a dynamic model of risk perception, storms, and adaptation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Franck, Travis Read

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Climate change impacts, including sea-level rise and changes in tropical storm frequency and intensity, will pose signicant challenges to city planners and coastal zone managers trying to make wise investment and protection ...

  5. Meanings, Measures, Maps, and Models: Understanding the Mechanisms of Continuous Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Repenning, Nelson

    There is now considerable controversy concerning the role that incremental change plays in the process of organizational transformation. Some scholars assert that incremental change is the primary source of resistance to ...

  6. Mexican drought: an observational modeling and tree ring study of variability and climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    changes in Mexican agriculture over the last decade and a half are the combined result of severe climate-

  7. Increasing Understanding of Species Responses to Global Changes Through Modeling Plant Metapopulation Dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Swab, Rebecca

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Mediterranean type ecosystem to the combined impacts of projected climate changeclimate change on geomorphology and desertification along a mediterranean-

  8. Modeling Potential Equilibrium States of Vegetation and Terrestrial Water Cycle of Mesoamerica under Climate Change Scenarios*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    precipitation, the impacts of climate change on vegetation and water cycle are predicted with relatively low under Climate Change Scenarios* PABLO IMBACH,1 LUIS MOLINA,1 BRUNO LOCATELLI,# OLIVIER ROUPSARD,1,@ GIL MAHE´ ,& RONALD NEILSON,**,&& LENIN CORRALES,11 MARKO SCHOLZE,## AND PHILIPPE CIAIS @@ 1 Climate Change

  9. Monthly Variable-based Degree Day Template: A Spreadsheet Procedure Calculating a 3 Parameter Change-point Model for Residential or Commercial Buildings 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Landman, D. S.; Haberl, J. S.

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report presents a spreadsheet procedure for calculating a variable-based degree day or three parameter change-point models using monthly utility billing data and coincident weather data. These models were used to model monthly energy...

  10. Land Use and Ecosystems Data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    CDIAC products are indexed and searchable through a customized interface powered by ORNL's Mercury search engine. Products include numeric data packages, publications, trend data, atlases, models, etc. and can be searched for by subject area, keywords, authors, product numbers, time periods, collection sites, spatial references, etc. Some of the collections may also be included in the CDIAC publication titled Trends Online: A Compendium of Global Change Data. Most data sets, many with numerous data files, are free to download from CDIAC's ftp area. Land Use and Ecosystems information includes Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration Data Sets, data sets from Africa and Asia, the Worldwide Organic Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dataset, and much more.

  11. Title: Canada Land Inventory: Land Capability for Forestry Data Creator /

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Title: Canada Land Inventory: Land Capability for Forestry Data Creator / Copyright Owner: National Archives of Canada, Visual and Sound Archives Division; Publisher: National Archives of Canada, Visual and Sound Archives Division; developed under the auspices of Environment Canada; distributed by Natural

  12. Title: Canada Land Inventory: 1966 Land Use Data Creator /

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Title: Canada Land Inventory: 1966 Land Use Data Creator / Copyright Owner: National Archives of Canada, Visual and Sound Archives Division Publisher: National Archives of Canada, Visual and Sound Archives Division; developed under the auspices of Environment Canada; distributed by Natural Resources

  13. Soft-Landing of Peptide IOns Onto Self-Assembled Monolayer Surfaces...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    self-assembled monolayer surfaces (SAMs). Peptide ions are particularly attractive model systems that provide important insights on the behavior of soft landed proteins, while...

  14. Submission of manuscript to Energy and Buildings A thermal model for Phase Change Materials in a building roof for a

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Submission of manuscript to Energy and Buildings A thermal model for Phase Change Materials in "Energy and Buildings 70 (2014) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/ S0378778813007962" DOI : 10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.11.079 #12;Manuscript submitted to Energy and Buildings S.GUICHARD 2013 2

  15. PDO-Related Heat and Temperature Budget Changes in a Model of the North Pacific JORDAN T. DAWE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thompson, LuAnne

    in the Pacific. The PDO index shows significant correlations with a wide variety of climate indices, including between a variety of Indian and Pacific tropical climate indices and the PDO. Since atmospheric signalsPDO-Related Heat and Temperature Budget Changes in a Model of the North Pacific JORDAN T. DAWE

  16. Verification and Validation of EnergyPlus Conduction Finite Difference and Phase Change Material Models for Opaque Wall Assemblies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tabares-Velasco, P. C.; Christensen, C.; Bianchi, M.; Booten, C.

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Phase change materials (PCMs) represent a potential technology to reduce peak loads and HVAC energy consumption in buildings. There are few building energy simulation programs that have the capability to simulate PCM but their accuracy has not been completely tested. This report summarizes NREL efforts to develop diagnostic tests cases to obtain accurate energy simulations when PCMs are modeled in residential buildings.

  17. Bus Rapid Transit Impacts on Land Uses and Land Values in Seoul, Korea

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cervero, Robert; Kang, Chang Deok

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    an ambitious campaign of land reclamation, taking valuablehub of Seoul’s ambitious land reclamation and redevelopment

  18. Wetland model in an earth systems modeling framework for regional environmental policy analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Awadalla, Sirein Salah

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The objective of this research is to investigate incorporating a wetland component into a land energy and water fluxes model, the Community Land Model (CLM). CLM is the land fluxes component of the Integrated Global Systems ...

  19. Industrial Conflict, Mass Demonstrations, and Economic and Political Change in Postwar France: An Econometric Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Borrel, Monique J

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Business Cycle: An Econometric Analysis. Oxford, Blackwell,in Postwar France: An Econometric Model Monique Borrel I.to political vagaries. The econometric model presented here

  20. Industrial Conflict, Mass Demonstrations, and Economic and Political Change in Postwar France: An Econometric Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Borrel, Monique J

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Business Cycle: An Econometric Analysis. Oxford, Blackwell,in Postwar France: An Econometric Model Monique Borrel I.to political vagaries. The econometric model presented here

  1. Modeling economic impacts of climate change on U.S. forests

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sousa, Claudio Ney Martins De

    1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Climate change is expected to modify forest growth. As a result, the forestry sector of the United States could be affected. The primary objective of this study was to examine the economic impacts of climate change on the U.S. forestry sector...

  2. Oil and Gas on Public Lands (Texas)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The School Land Board may choose to lease lands for the production of oil and natural gas, on the condition that oil and gas resources are leased together and separate from other minerals. Lands...

  3. Modeling vertical beta-diversity in tropical butterfly communities Thomas R. Walla, Steinar Engen, Philip J. DeVries and Russell Lande

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Devries, Philip J.

    Modeling vertical beta-diversity in tropical butterfly communities Thomas R. Walla, Steinar Engen vertical beta- diversity in tropical butterfly communities. Á/ Oikos 107: 610Á/618. We present a novel of structure present. Beta-diversity (MacArthur

  4. Does Model Sensitivity to Changes in CO2 Provide a Measure of Sensitivity to Other Forcings?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . In a more recent study (Forest et al. 2006), changes in solar constant, volcanic aerosol, and vegeta- tion forcings on the nature of the forcing has been a subject of a number of recent studies (e.g., Cook

  5. Lisa Shrestha Inclusive Land Policy and Human Security in Post-conflict Situation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richner, Heinz

    of will power. The changing livelihood strategy of people with increase in size of landholding shows District Summary Land as a Source of Inequity, Power Struggle and Violent Conflict The findings of this study shows land can be one of the prominent sources for power truggle which propagates into violent

  6. How well do we know northern land cover? Comparison of four global vegetation and wetland products

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Laurence C.

    Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer data (GLCC.AVHRR), (2) the Global Land Cover Classification.AVHRR database underestimates evergreen needleleaf forest in favor of mixed forest; and (3) at high latitudes impacts of climate change on land- atmosphere exchanges of energy, water, carbon and green- house gases [e

  7. Dischargecalcium concentration relationships in streams of the Amazon and Cerrado of Brazil: soil or land use

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Discharge­calcium concentration relationships in streams of the Amazon and Cerrado of Brazil: soil ecosystem function. Throughout the Amazon and Cerrado regions of Brazil rapid changes in land use and land with data from 28 streams throughout Brazil. These streams come from three distinct regions and varied

  8. Energy Budget-Based Simulation of Evapotranspiration from Land in the Great Lakes Basin

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Budget-Based Simulation of Evapotranspiration from Land in the Great Lakes Basin Primary-available data for change in net radiative energy for land surfaces in the same region in the same general energy available in this region according to the corresponding GCM. Thus there is a mismatch: While air

  9. 3) What makes a species invasive? i) Disturbance and land use hypothesis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nowak, Robert S.

    changes in the extent and frequency of disturbance to an ecosystem #12;3) What makes a species invasive? i3) What makes a species invasive? i) Disturbance and land use hypothesis Basic concepts: · Many;3) What makes a species invasive? i) Disturbance and land use hypothesis Basic concepts: · Invasive

  10. Tuesday, March 14, 2006 SPECIAL SESSION: PHOENIX LANDING SITE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rathbun, Julie A.

    polar cap have been characterized. This situation changed early in 2002 when large amounts of water ice. Regional melting and atmos- pheric exchange will affect all the soils. Science goal #1: Study the history of the Phoenix Mission Landing Site [#1910] The Phoenix mission will study the subsurface ice discovered in 2002

  11. Jonathan Chang, Jordan Boyd-Graber, Chong Wang, Sean Gerrish, and David M. Blei. Reading Tea Leaves: How Humans Interpret Topic Models. Neural Information Processing Systems, 2009.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyd-Graber, Jordan

    Jonathan Chang, Jordan Boyd-Graber, Chong Wang, Sean Gerrish, and David M. Blei. Reading Tea Leaves: How Humans Interpret Topic Models. Neural Information Processing Systems, 2009. @inproceedings{Chang:Boyd-Graber:Wang:Gerrish:Blei-2009, Author = {Jonathan Chang and Jordan Boyd-Graber and Chong Wang and Sean Gerrish and David M. Blei

  12. Minerals on Public Lands (Texas)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Any tract of land that belongs to the state, including islands, salt and freshwater lakes, bays, inlets, marshes, and reefs owned by the state within tidewater limits, the part of the Gulf of...

  13. Delaware Land Protection Act (Delaware)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Land Protection Act requires the Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control to work with the Delaware Open Space Council to develop standards and criteria for determining the...

  14. Riparian Rights: State Land (Indiana)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The state reserves the power to sell, transfer, and convey, as provided by law, rights-of-way in public land for several purposes, including pipelines, gas pipelines, water pipelines, sewer lines,...

  15. Land and Facility Use Planning

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1996-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

    The Land and Facility Use Planning process provides a way to guide future site development and reuse based on the shared long-term goals and objectives of the Department, site and its stakeholders. Does not cancel other directives.

  16. Final Technical Report for "Collaborative Research: Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models"

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robertson, A.W.; Ghil, M.; Kravtsov, K.; Smyth, P.J.

    2011-04-08T23:59:59.000Z

    This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding in which we developed a twin approach of non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. We have developed a family of latent-variable NHMMs to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale seasonal predictions. We have also developed empirical mode reduction (EMR) models for gaining insight into the underlying dynamics in observational data and general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Using coupled O-A ICMs, we have identified a new mechanism of interdecadal climate variability, involving the midlatitude oceans mesoscale eddy field and nonlinear, persistent atmospheric response to the oceanic anomalies. A related decadal mode is also identified, associated with the oceans thermohaline circulation. The goal of the continuation was to build on these ICM results and NHMM/EMR model developments and software to strengthen two key pillars of support for the development and application of climate models for climate change projections on time scales of decades to centuries, namely: (a) dynamical and theoretical understanding of decadal-to-interdecadal oscillations and their predictability; and (b) an interface from climate models to applications, in order to inform societal adaptation strategies to climate change at the regional scale, including model calibration, correction, downscaling and, most importantly, assessment and interpretation of spread and uncertainties in multi-model ensembles. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to downscaling of rainfall projections over India; identification and analysis of decadal climate signals in data and models; and, studies of climate variability in terms of the dynamics of atmospheric flow regimes. Each of these project components is elaborated on below, followed by a list of publications resulting from the grant.

  17. Final Technical Report for "Collaborative Research: Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models"

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kravtsov, S.; Robertson, A. W.; Ghil, M.; Smyth, P. J.

    2011-04-08T23:59:59.000Z

    This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding in which we developed a twin approach of non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. We have developed a family of latent-variable NHMMs to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale seasonal predictions. We have also developed empirical mode reduction (EMR) models for gaining insight into the underlying dynamics in observational data and general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Using coupled O-A ICMs, we have identified a new mechanism of interdecadal climate variability, involving the midlatitude oceansâ?? mesoscale eddy field and nonlinear, persistent atmospheric response to the oceanic anomalies. A related decadal mode is also identified, associated with the oceansâ?? thermohaline circulation. The goal of the continuation was to build on these ICM results and NHMM/EMR model developments and software to strengthen two key pillars of support for the development and application of climate models for climate change projections on time scales of decades to centuries, namely: (a) dynamical and theoretical understanding of decadal-to-interdecadal oscillations and their predictability; and (b) an interface from climate models to applications, in order to inform societal adaptation strategies to climate change at the regional scale, including model calibration, correction, downscaling and, most importantly, assessment and interpretation of spread and uncertainties in multi-model ensembles. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to downscaling of rainfall projections over India; identification and analysis of decadal climate signals in data and models; and, studies of climate variability in terms of the dynamics of atmospheric flow regimes. Each of these project components is elaborated on below, followed by a list of publications resulting from the grant.

  18. Effects of urban land cover modifications in a mesoscale meteorological model on surface temperature and heat fluxes in the Phoenix metropolitan area.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hall, Sharon J.

    in the modeling domain was calculated as part of the energy balance equation according to: E = a C CuM[qs(Tg) -qs MM5. The single urban category in the existing 25-category United States Geological Survey (USGS surface energy fluxes and ground temperature. Planetary boundary layer processes were included via the MRF

  19. Manuscript prepared for Geosci. Model Dev. with version 3.0 of the LATEX class copernicus.cls.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haak, Hein

    an interactive sea-ice and land component. SPEEDO is a global earth system model of intermediate complexity and predicting future changes. Global state-of-the-art earth system models are computationally expensive which. For these scientific purposes computationally efficient earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) have

  20. Tracking a medically important spider: climate change, ecological niche modeling, and the brown recluse (Loxosceles reclusa)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Selden, Paul A.; Saupe, Erin E.; Pape?, Monica; Vetter, Richard S.

    2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    associations, and aid in planning vector-control strate- gies. ENM is useful for studying the complex dynamics of environment and biota over time and estimating distributional changes to medically important species [this paper, 28–32], pests [11,60...2 and B2 emission scenarios [85]. We used a liberal (a2a) and conservative (b2a) scenario of socio- economical and associated green house gas changes for three time slices: 2020, 2050, and 2080. The A2 and B2 storylines assume heterogeneous world...

  1. Transitions to improved confinement regimes induced by changes in heating in zero-dimensional models for tokamak plasmas

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhu, H. [Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL (United Kingdom); Chapman, S. C. [Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL (United Kingdom); Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden (Germany); Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Tromso, Tromso (Norway); Dendy, R. O. [Euratom/CCFE Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxfordshire OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL (United Kingdom); Itoh Research Center for Plasma Turbulence, Kyushu University, Kasuga 816-8580 (Japan); Itoh, K. [National Institute for Fusion Science, Toki 509-5292 (Japan); Itoh Research Center for Plasma Turbulence, Kyushu University, Kasuga 816-8580 (Japan)

    2014-06-15T23:59:59.000Z

    It is shown that rapid substantial changes in heating rate can induce transitions to improved energy confinement regimes in zero-dimensional models for tokamak plasma phenomenology. We examine for the first time the effect of step changes in heating rate in the models of Kim and Diamond [Phys. Rev. Lett. 90, 185006 (2003)] and Malkov and Diamond [Phys. Plasmas 16, 012504 (2009)], which nonlinearly couple the evolving temperature gradient, micro-turbulence, and a mesoscale flow; and in the extension of Zhu et al. [Phys. Plasmas 20, 042302 (2013)], which couples to a second mesoscale flow component. The temperature gradient rises, as does the confinement time defined by analogy with the fusion context, while micro-turbulence is suppressed. This outcome is robust against variation of heating rise time and against introduction of an additional variable into the model. It is also demonstrated that oscillating changes in heating rate can drive the level of micro-turbulence through a period-doubling path to chaos, where the amplitude of the oscillatory component of the heating rate is the control parameter.

  2. How will changes in global climate influence California?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weare, B C

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, UC Davis.climate change impacts on water for agriculture and otherincreased flooding and reduced water availability, higher

  3. Climate change and hydropower production in the Swiss Alps:potential impacts and modelling uncertainties Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11(3), 11911205, 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    climate change scenarios based on global-mean warming scenarios, the corresponding discharge model). Apart from the obvious economic interest in electricity production from water accumulated in reservoirsClimate change and hydropower production in the Swiss Alps:potential impacts and modelling

  4. Potential impacts of climate change on tropospheric ozone in California: a preliminary episodic modeling assessment of the Los Angeles basin and the Sacramento valley

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Taha, Haider

    2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this preliminary and relatively short modeling effort, an initial assessment is made for the potential air quality implications of climate change in California. The focus is mainly on the effects of changes in temperature and related meteorological and emission factors on ozone formation. Photochemical modeling is performed for two areas in the state: the Los Angeles Basin and the Sacramento Valley.

  5. Higher U.S. Crop Prices Trigger Little Area Expansion so Marginal Land for Biofuel Crops Is Limited

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Swinton, S.; Babcock, Bruce; James, Laura; Bandaru, Varaprasad

    2011-06-12T23:59:59.000Z

    By expanding energy biomass production on marginal lands that are not currently used for crops, food price increases and indirect climate change effects can be mitigated. Studies of the availability of marginal lands for dedicated bioenergy crops have focused on biophysical land traits, ignoring the human role in decisions to convert marginal land to bioenergy crops. Recent history offers insights about farmer willingness to put non-crop land into crop production. The 2006-09 leap in field crop prices and the attendant 64% gain in typical profitability led to only a 2% increase in crop planted area, mostly in the prairie states

  6. An integral-balance nonlinear model to simulate changes in soil moisture, groundwater and surface runoff dynamics at the hillslope scale

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jay, Laurent O.

    An integral-balance nonlinear model to simulate changes in soil moisture, groundwater and surface-state integral-balance model for soil moisture and groundwater dynamics. Development of the model was motivated. Ã? 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Recent studies on the modeling

  7. Modeling Climate Change Policies in Canada and the U.S.: An Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Tubbs, W. J.

    and describe the major results. Various climate change policy runs were simulated for the both the Canadian and U. S. economies: a U. S. equivalent carbon price of $60 and $120 implemented either slowly or rapidly define the slow-shallow, slow-deep, fast...

  8. 2012 Changing Arctic Ocean 506E/497E -Lecture 17 -Woodgate Global models in the Arctic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    ;2 2012 Changing Arctic Ocean 506E/497E - Lecture 17 - Woodgate Deep waters of the Atlantic from http://sam://iodp.tamu.edu/publications/PR/303PR/images/Fig01.jpg Dickson et al, refs Denmark Strait ~ 650m deep Iceland Scotland Ridge ~ 400

  9. Modeling Low Impact Development at the Small-Watershed Scale: Implications for the Decision Making Process

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seo, Mijin

    2014-12-03T23:59:59.000Z

    and soluble phosphorus loadings according to the impact of the three types of land use changes (conversion to deforestation, urbanization, and agricultural land) using a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Bhattarai et al. (2011) investigated water... higher peak flow and nitrogen and phosphorus loads than the other two designs because of high impervious surfaces and low open space and urban forests. Yang and Li (2011) evaluated the impact of two different urban planning types (high-density and low...

  10. Tax policy can change the production path: A model of optimal oil extraction in Alaska

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia

    the model against historical production data, and use the calibrated model to simulate the impact of tax prices have prompted oil-holding nations and states to revise their tax policies, including increasing to historical data to simulate the effects of alternative tax policies on production paths and on the present

  11. A Formal Approach for Modeling Software Agents Coordination Lily Chang1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shatz, Sol M.

    Petri net approach to model the coordination of multi-agent systems. A higher level net (called host net) defines the movements and coordination mechanism of agents, while lower level nets (called agent nets that are tokens of the host net) model the behavior of individual agents. A dynamic channel concept

  12. Trade-offs of different land and bioenergy policies on the path to achieving climate targets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Wise, Marshall A.; Kyle, G. Page; Patel, Pralit L.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

    2014-04-16T23:59:59.000Z

    Many papers have shown that bioenergy and land-use are potentially important elements in a strategy to limit anthropogenic climate change. But, significant expansion of bioenergy production can have a large terrestrial footprint. In this paper, we test the implications for land use, the global energy system, carbon cycle, and carbon prices of meeting a specific climate target, using a single fossil fuel and industrial sector policy instrument—the carbon tax, but with five alternative bioenergy and land-use policy architectures. We find that the policies we examined have differing effects on the different segments of the economy. Comprehensive land policies can reduce land-use change emissions, increasing allowable emissions in the energy system, but have implications for the cost of food. Bioenergy taxes and constraints, on the other hand, have little effect on food prices, but can result in increased carbon and energy prices.

  13. Electrochemical-thermal modeling and microscale phase change for passive internal thermal management of lithium ion batteries.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fuller, Thomas F. (Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA); Bandhauer, Todd (Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA); Garimella, Srinivas (Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA)

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A fully coupled electrochemical and thermal model for lithium-ion batteries is developed to investigate the impact of different thermal management strategies on battery performance. In contrast to previous modeling efforts focused either exclusively on particle electrochemistry on the one hand or overall vehicle simulations on the other, the present work predicts local electrochemical reaction rates using temperature-dependent data on commercially available batteries designed for high rates (C/LiFePO{sub 4}) in a computationally efficient manner. Simulation results show that conventional external cooling systems for these batteries, which have a low composite thermal conductivity ({approx}1 W/m-K), cause either large temperature rises or internal temperature gradients. Thus, a novel, passive internal cooling system that uses heat removal through liquid-vapor phase change is developed. Although there have been prior investigations of phase change at the microscales, fluid flow at the conditions expected here is not well understood. A first-principles based cooling system performance model is developed and validated experimentally, and is integrated into the coupled electrochemical-thermal model for assessment of performance improvement relative to conventional thermal management strategies. The proposed cooling system passively removes heat almost isothermally with negligible thermal resistances between the heat source and cooling fluid. Thus, the minimization of peak temperatures and gradients within batteries allow increased power and energy densities unencumbered by thermal limitations.

  14. Approximate models for the study of exponential changed quantities: Application on the plasma waves growth rate or damping

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xaplanteris, C. L., E-mail: cxaplanteris@yahoo.com [Plasma Physics Laboratory, IMS, NCSR “Demokritos”, Athens, Greece and Hellenic Army Academy, Vari Attica (Greece); Xaplanteris, L. C. [School of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens (Greece)] [School of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens (Greece); Leousis, D. P. [Technical High School of Athens, Athens (Greece)] [Technical High School of Athens, Athens (Greece)

    2014-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Many physical phenomena that concern the research these days are basically complicated because of being multi-parametric. Thus, their study and understanding meets with big if not unsolved obstacles. Such complicated and multi-parametric is the plasmatic state as well, where the plasma and the physical quantities that appear along with it have chaotic behavior. Many of those physical quantities change exponentially and at most times they are stabilized by presenting wavy behavior. Mostly in the transitive state rather than the steady state, the exponentially changing quantities (Growth, Damping etc) depend on each other in most cases. Thus, it is difficult to distinguish the cause from the result. The present paper attempts to help this difficult study and understanding by proposing mathematical exponential models that could relate with the study and understanding of the plasmatic wavy instability behavior. Such instabilities are already detected, understood and presented in previous publications of our laboratory. In other words, our new contribution is the study of the already known plasmatic quantities by using mathematical models (modeling and simulation). These methods are both useful and applicable in the chaotic theory. In addition, our ambition is to also conduct a list of models useful for the study of chaotic problems, such as those that appear into the plasma, starting with this paper's examples.

  15. Regional climate effects of irrigation and urbanization in thewestern united states: a model intercomparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Snyder, M.A.; Kueppers, L.M.; Sloan, L.C.; Cavan, D.C.; Jin, J.; Kanamaru, H.; Miller, N.L.; Tyree, M.; Du, H.; Weare, B.

    2006-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In the western United States, more than 30,500 square miles has been converted to irrigated agriculture and urban areas. This study compares the climate responses of four regional climate models (RCMs) to these past land-use changes. The RCMs used two contrasting land cover distributions: potential natural vegetation, and modern land cover that includes agriculture and urban areas. Three of the RCMs represented irrigation by supplementing soil moisture, producing large decreases in August mean (-2.5 F to -5.6 F) and maximum (-5.2 F to -10.1 F) 2-meter temperatures where natural vegetation was converted to irrigated agriculture. Conversion to irrigated agriculture also resulted in large increases in relative humidity (9 percent 36 percent absolute change). Only one of the RCMs produced increases in summer minimum temperature. Converting natural vegetation to urban land cover produced modest but discernable climate effects in all models, with the magnitude of the effects dependent upon the preexisting vegetation type. Overall, the RCM results indicate that land use change impacts are most pronounced during the summer months, when surface heating is strongest and differences in surface moisture between irrigated land and natural vegetation are largest. The irrigation effect on summer maximum temperatures is comparable in magnitude (but opposite in sign) to predicted future temperature change due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.

  16. Ewing Land Development Services | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are beingZealand JumpConceptual Model,DOEHazelPennsylvania: Energy Resources(RECP)Coolers JumpOpenRoadEwing Land

  17. Evaluation of short-term climate change prediction in multi-model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Peter J.

    events such as trop- ical cyclone activity. On decadal timescales, some aspects of internal climate skill of individual models have been analyzed separately for multi-year prediction horizons over

  18. Advanced Technologies in Energy-Economy Models for Climate Change Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Morris, J.F.

    Considerations regarding the roles of advanced technologies are crucial in energy-economic modeling, as these technologies, while usually not yet commercially viable, could substitute for fossil energy when relevant policies ...

  19. Modeling Cerebral Blood Flow Control During Posture Change from Sitting to Standing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , and syncope, which are major causes of morbidity and mortality in elderly people. In this paper, we focus our these effects we build upon our previous work which suggested (using a 3-element wind- kessel model) that both

  20. Modeling Changes in Connectivity at U.S. Airports: A Small Community Perspective

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wittman, Michael D.

    2013-06-11T23:59:59.000Z

    There currently exists no industry-standard model for measuring an airport's level of connectivity to the global air transportation network. This discussion paper introduces the Airport Connectivity Quality Index (ACQI)--a ...

  1. Transient Responses to Rapid Changes in Mean and Variance in Spiking Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Khorsand, Peyman; Chance, Frances

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    features of IF model responses to steps in input signals:neuron firing rates in response to steps in mean and noise.variance (see Decaying Response to Step Function). In the

  2. Visualizing KcsA Conformational Changes upon Ion Binding by Infrared Spectroscopy and Atomistic Modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stevenson, Paul

    The effect of ion binding in the selectivity filter of the potassium channel KcsA is investigated by combining amide I Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy with structure-based spectral modeling. Experimental difference ...

  3. Modeling the Uncertain Future of a Threatened Habitat: Climate Change and Urban Growth in California Sage Scrub

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Riordan, Erin Coulter

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Under projected climate change, mediterranean-climate in theland use and climate change in mediterranean regions,TO PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE IN A THREATENED, MEDITERRANEAN-

  4. Is the northern high latitude land-based CO2 sink weakening?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mcguire, David [University of Alaska; Kicklighter, David W. [Ecosystem Center, The; Gurney, Kevin R [Arizona State University; Burnside, Todd [University of Alaska, Fairbanks; Melillo, Jerry [Marine Biological Laboratory

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Studies indicate that, historically, terrestrial ecosystems of the northern high latitude region may have been responsible for up to 60% of the global net land-based sink for atmospheric CO2. However, these regions have recently experienced remarkable modification of the major driving forces of the carbon cycle, including surface air temperature warming that is significantly greater than the global average and associated increases in the frequency and severity of disturbances. Whether arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems will continue to sequester atmospheric CO2 in the face of these dramatic changes is unknown. Here we show the results of model simulations that estimate a 41 Tg C yr-1 sink in the boreal land regions from 1997 to 2006, which represents a 73% reduction in the strength of the sink estimated for previous decades in the late 20th Century. Our results suggest that CO2 uptake by the region in previous decades may not be as strong as previously estimated. The recent decline in sink strength is the combined result of 1) weakening sinks due to warming-induced increases in soil organic matter decomposition and 2) strengthening sources from pyrogenic CO2 emissions as a result of the substantial area of boreal forest burned in wildfires across the region in recent years. Such changes create positive feedbacks to the climate system that accelerate global warming, putting further pressure on emission reductions to achieve atmospheric stabilization targets.

  5. Interactions among bioenergy feedstock choices, landscape dynamics, and land use

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dale, Virginia H [ORNL; Kline, Keith L [ORNL; Wright, Lynn L [ORNL; Perlack, Robert D [ORNL; Downing, Mark [ORNL; Graham, Robin Lambert [ORNL

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Landscape implications of bioenergy feedstock choices are significant and depend on land-use practices and their environmental impacts. Although land-use changes and carbon emissions associated with bioenergy feedstock production are dynamic and complicated, lignocellulosic feedstocks may offer opportunities that enhance sustainability when compared to other transportation fuel alternatives. For bioenergy sustainability, major drivers and concerns revolve around energy security, food production, land productivity, soil carbon and erosion, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, air quality, and water quantity and quality. The many implications of bioenergy feedstock choices require several indicators at multiple scales to provide a more complete accounting of effects. Ultimately, the long-term sustainability of bioenergy feedstock resources (as well as food supplies) throughout the world depends on land-use practices and landscape dynamics. Land-management decisions often invoke trade-offs among potential environmental effects and social and economic factors as well as future opportunities for resource use. The hypothesis being addressed in this paper is that sustainability of bioenergy feedstock production can be achieved via appropriately designed crop residue and perennial lignocellulosic systems. We find that decision makers need scientific advancements and adequate data that both provide quantitative and qualitative measures of the effects of bioenergy feedstock choices at different spatial and temporal scales and allow fair comparisons among available options for renewable liquid fuels.

  6. The impacts of climate, land use, and demography on fires during the 21st century simulated by CLM-CN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kloster, S.; Mahowald, N. M; Randerson, J. T; Lawrence, P. J

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    model of wetland extent and peat accumulation: results forof carbon released from peat and forest fires in Indonesialosses in Alaskan forests and peat- lands, Nature Geosci. ,

  7. The role of land surface processes on the mesoscale simulation of the July 26, 2005 heavy rain event over Mumbai, India

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Niyogi, Dev

    The role of land surface processes on the mesoscale simulation of the July 26, 2005 heavy rain Mesoscale convection Weather research and forecast model Indian summer monsoon Land surface processes

  8. Comparison of Measurement And Modeling Of Current Profile Changes Due To Neutral Bean Ion Redistribution During TAE Avalanches in NSTX

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Darrow, Douglas

    2013-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Brief "avalanches" of toroidal Alfven eigenmodes (TAEs) are observed in NSTX plasmas with several different n numbers simultaneously present. These affect the neutral beam ion distribution as evidenced by a concurrent drop in the neutron rate and, sometimes, beam ion loss. Guiding center orbit modeling has shown that the modes can transiently render portions of the beam ion phase space stochastic. The resulting redistribution of beam ions can also create a broader beam-driven current profile and produce other changes in the beam ion distribution function

  9. An Adaptive Change Detection Scheme for a Nonlinear Beam Model \\Lambda

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    is persistently excited. Simulation studies are used to illustrate the applicability of the theoretical results approximation at several levels. The plant is modeled by a partial differential equation, which must be solved with a numerical example which illustrates its utility. The paper is organized as follows. In Section 2 we give

  10. Hadronic models of blazars require a change of the accretion paradigm

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zdziarski, Andrzej A

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We study hadronic models of broad-band emission of jets in radio-loud active galactic nuclei, and their implications for the accretion in those sources. We show that the models that account for broad-band spectra of blazars emitting in the GeV range in the sample of Boettcher et al. have highly super-Eddington jet powers. Furthermore, the ratio of the jet power to the radiative luminosity of the accretion disc is ~3000 on average and can be as high as ~10^5. We then show that the measurements of the radio core shift for the sample imply low magnetic fluxes threading the black hole, which rules out the Blandford-Znajek mechanism to produce powerful jets. These results require that the accretion rate necessary to power the modelled jets is extremely high, and the average radiative accretion efficiency is ~4 10^-5. Thus, if the hadronic model is correct, the currently prevailing picture of accretion in AGNs needs to be significantly revised. Also, the obtained accretion mode cannot be dominant during the lifetim...

  11. An Empirical Approach to Modeling Inter-AS Traffic Matrices Hyunseok Chang Sugih Jamin

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mao, Zhuoqing Morley

    . These techniques rely on link measure- ments, flow measurements, or routing-related data to infer traffic demand data needed (e.g., ingress-egress demand) and data most readily available (e.g., link measurements for modeling inter-AS traffic demand that relies exclusively on publicly available/obtainable mea- surements

  12. Modeling and Simulation of Solar PV Arrays under Changing Illumination Conditions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lehman, Brad

    shadows (a passing cloud) on the output power of solar PV arrays. Each solar array is composed of a matrix of a shaded solar PV array as well as the PV output power. The model is also able to simulate and compute the output power of solar PV arrays for any configuration, with or without bypass diode. NOMENCLATURE IM

  13. A model study of the effects of climatic precipitation changes on ground temperatures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smerdon, Jason E.

    . The cumulative effect of these processes governs the heat flux at the ground surface and couples surface air of a prairie region in the southern Great Plains of North America and force the model with meteorological data heat within the soil, vegetation, and air; chemical weathering; and biological processes

  14. Exploration and Modeling of Structural changes in Waste Glass Under Corrosion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pantano, Carlos; Ryan, Joseph; Strachan, Denis

    2013-11-10T23:59:59.000Z

    Vitrification is currently the world-wide treatment of choice for the disposition of high-level nuclear wastes. In glasses, radionuclides are atomistically bonded into the solid, resulting in a highly durable product, with borosilicate glasses exhibiting particularly excellent durability in water. Considering that waste glass is designed to retain the radionuclides within the waste form for long periods, it is important to understand the long-term stability of these materials when they react in the environment, especially in the presence of water. Based on a number of previous studies, there is general consensus regarding the mechanisms controlling the initial rate of nuclear waste glass dissolution. Agreement regarding the cause of the observed decrease in dissolution rate at extended times, however, has been elusive. Two general models have been proposed to explain this behavior, and it has been concluded that both concepts are valid and must be taken into account when considering the decrease in dissolution rate. Furthermore, other processes such as water diffusion, ion exchange, and precipitation of mineral phases onto the glass surface may occur in parallel with dissolution of the glass and can influence long-term performance. Our proposed research will address these issues through a combination of aqueous-phase dissolution/reaction experiments and probing of the resulting surface layers with state-of-the-art analytical methods. These methods include solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (SSNMR) and time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (TOF-SIMS). The resulting datasets will then be coupled with computational chemistry and reaction-rate modeling to address the most persistent uncertainties in the understanding of glass corrosion, which indeed have limited the performance of the best corrosion models to date. With an improved understanding of corrosion mechanisms, models can be developed and improved that, while still conservative, take advantage of the inherent durability of the waste form to enable secure repositories to be engineered with a much higher density of waste disposition. We propose the synthesis, corrosion, and characterization of two sets of glass samples— containing approximately 8 single-component oxides each—as models for corrosion studies of more complicated glass systems (which can contain in excess of 25 single-component ingredients). Powdered samples and millimeter- sized coupons of these simpler glasses will be corroded in solutions that begin at circumneutral pH, but are known to increase in alkalinity as corrosion proceeds and saturation in silica species is approached. Through carefully selected isotopic substitutions with nuclides that are readily detected with SSNMR and TOF-SIMS methods, we will be able to follow the diffusion of atoms into and out of the reacted surface layers of these glasses and provide new data for testing with existing reaction models. The models can then be further extended or updated to take our new data into account, allowing the existing long-term glass corrosion models to more accurately reflect the extraordinary durability of these systems. With improved models, a significant opportunity exists to better utilize the storage volume of any geologic repository.

  15. Subtask 2.4 - Integration and Synthesis in Climate Change Predictive Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jaroslav Solc

    2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) completed a brief evaluation of the existing status of predictive modeling to assess options for integration of our previous paleohydrologic reconstructions and their synthesis with current global climate scenarios. Results of our research indicate that short-term data series available from modern instrumental records are not sufficient to reconstruct past hydrologic events or predict future ones. On the contrary, reconstruction of paleoclimate phenomena provided credible information on past climate cycles and confirmed their integration in the context of regional climate history is possible. Similarly to ice cores and other paleo proxies, acquired data represent an objective, credible tool for model calibration and validation of currently observed trends. It remains a subject of future research whether further refinement of our results and synthesis with regional and global climate observations could contribute to improvement and credibility of climate predictions on a regional and global scale.

  16. Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) is a macro-scale energy and water balance model with lake and wetland

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cherkauer, Keith

    of surface storage in a low- gradient Arctic watershed, Water Resour. Res., 39(4), 1087, doi: 10.1029/2002WR (VIC) Cold Land Process Model Updates, Global and Planetary Change, 38, 151-159, 2003. Sathulur, K., L drainage, and expanding industrial and urban areas. The water table position usually acts as the dominant

  17. Hydrologic Response to Climate Variability, Climate Change, and Climate Extreme in the U.S.: Climate Model Evaluation and Projections

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai R.; Qian, Yun

    2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Water resources are sensitive to climate variability and change; predictions of seasonal to interannual climate variations and projections of long-term climate trends can provide significant values in managing water resources. This study examines the control (1975–1995) and future (1995–2100) climate simulated by a global climate model (GCM) and a regional climate simulation driven by the GCM control simulation for the U.S. Comparison of the regional climate simulation with observations across 13 subregions showed that the simulation captured the seasonality and the distributions of precipitation rate quite well. The GCM control and climate change simulations showed that, as a result of a 1% increase in greenhouse gas concentrations per year, there will be a warming of 2–3°C across the U.S. from 2000 to 2100. Although precipitation is not projected to change during this century, the warming trend will increase evapotranspiration to reduce annual basin mean runoff over five subregions along the coastal and south-central U.S.

  18. 2011LandesBioscience. Donotdistribute.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    /November/December 2011; © 2011 Landes Bioscience MethODs & techNicaL aDvaNces MethODs & techNicaL a of the GFP- or YFP-expressing balancers has specific advantages, but all share a common draw- back a Tubby1 (Tb1 ) dominant transgene. Flies heterozygous for these FM7a and CyO derivatives exhibit

  19. Changing Climates 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wythe, Kathy

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and a wide range of academic areas are investigating the different compo- nents. More recently, they are taking information gleaned from the global climate models and applying them to research questions pertaining to Texas. Dr. Bruce Mc...Carl, Regents Professor of agricultural economics at Texas A&M University, has researched the economics of climate change for the last 20 years. McCarl, as a lead CHANGING CLIMATES tx H2O | pg. McCarl ] tx H2O | pg. 4 Changing Climates author...

  20. An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model ...

  1. Laboratory Studies of the Reactive Chemistry and Changing CCN Properties of Secondary Organic Aerosol, Including Model Development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scot Martin

    2013-01-31T23:59:59.000Z

    The chemical evolution of secondary-organic-aerosol (SOA) particles and how this evolution alters their cloud-nucleating properties were studied. Simplified forms of full Koehler theory were targeted, specifically forms that contain only those aspects essential to describing the laboratory observations, because of the requirement to minimize computational burden for use in integrated climate and chemistry models. The associated data analysis and interpretation have therefore focused on model development in the framework of modified kappa-Koehler theory. Kappa is a single parameter describing effective hygroscopicity, grouping together several separate physicochemical parameters (e.g., molar volume, surface tension, and van't Hoff factor) that otherwise must be tracked and evaluated in an iterative full-Koehler equation in a large-scale model. A major finding of the project was that secondary organic materials produced by the oxidation of a range of biogenic volatile organic compounds for diverse conditions have kappa values bracketed in the range of 0.10 +/- 0.05. In these same experiments, somewhat incongruently there was significant chemical variation in the secondary organic material, especially oxidation state, as was indicated by changes in the particle mass spectra. Taken together, these findings then support the use of kappa as a simplified yet accurate general parameter to represent the CCN activation of secondary organic material in large-scale atmospheric and climate models, thereby greatly reducing the computational burden while simultaneously including the most recent mechanistic findings of laboratory studies.

  2. Sustainable bioenergy production from marginal lands in the US Midwest

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gelfand, Ilya; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Zhang, Xuesong; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Gross, Katherine L.; Robertson, G. P.

    2013-01-24T23:59:59.000Z

    Long-term measurements of global warming impact coupled with spatially explicit modeling suggests that both climate benefits and the production potential of cellulosic crops grown on marginal lands of the US North Central region are substantial but will be insufficient to meet long-term biofuel needs.

  3. Modelling the stratospheric polar vortex and its changes for GHGs increase and ozone depletion.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Greatbatch, Richard

    general circulation model (Manzini et al JGR 1997). Top: 0.01 hPa (80 km) Parameterization of a gravity boundary conditions, specified SSTs and ICE. 20 (or 30)-year simulations. The focus is on the Arctic. #12-HadGISS-HadGISS-HadSST & ICE 3.7 ppbv3.4 ppbv0.8 ppbvOrg. CL m. r. 372 ppmv353 ppmv317 ppmvCO2 m. r. 320 ppbv310 ppbv295 ppbvN2

  4. Resolving discrepancies between hydraulic and chemical calibration data for seawater intrusion groundwater flow models by considering climate-driven sea level change.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J. Chapman; A. Hassan; K. Pohlmann

    2001-10-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Groundwater models of seawater intrusion environments can be calibrated using both hydraulic and chemical information. The possible impact of the long-term transient process of sea level change is difficult to identify, but important to accurate simulation of present conditions. The response times of the pressure and chemical fields to major fluctuations in sea level change are investigated

  5. QUANTIFICATION OF GLACIER CHANGES USING ICESAT ELEVATION DATA AND THE SRTM DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL IN THE WESTERN KARAKORAM HIMALAYA REGION Bibi S. Naz1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cherkauer, Keith

    QUANTIFICATION OF GLACIER CHANGES USING ICESAT ELEVATION DATA AND THE SRTM DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL, 47907. Although notable rates of glacier retreat have been monitored across the Eastern Himalaya region in recent years, glacier changes in the Western Karakoram Himalaya are not well documented. Snowmelt from

  6. Minerals on School and Public Lands

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Commissioner of School and Public Lands is authorized to lease the mineral interests of such lands for development. Section 5-7 of the SD Codified Laws describes provisions for the leasing of...

  7. Marginal, Erodible Land Retirement Policy (Minnesota)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    It is state policy to encourage the retirement of marginal, highly erodible land, particularly land adjacent to public waters and drainage systems, from crop production and to reestablish a cover...

  8. Addressing land-based discrimination in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richner, Heinz

    , feudalism was based on ownership of land, the dominant mode of production. Political power was dominated by absolute kings and feudal overlords. Wealth and position in society was derived from the land ownership

  9. Coastal Public Lands Management Act (Texas)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The coastal public lands of the state are managed in accordance with the following principles: (a) The natural resources of the surface land, including their aesthetic value and their ability to...

  10. GCAM Bioenergy and Land Use Modeling

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels DataDepartment of Energy Your Density Isn't YourTransport inEnergy0.pdfTechnologiesNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTALnatural gas as aGCGCAM

  11. Global Biofuels Modeling and Land Use

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels DataDepartment of Energy Your Density Isn't YourTransport(Fact Sheet), Geothermal TechnologiesGeothermal energy toGettingGive Us

  12. Understanding and Mapping Land-Use and Land-Cover Change along Bolivia's Corredor Bioceancio 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Redo, Daniel J.

    2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    The Corredor Bioceanico is a major transportation project connecting the agricultural heartlands of South America to the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. The final link is in southeastern Bolivia - an underdeveloped area that ...

  13. Understanding and Mapping Land-Use and Land-Cover Change along Bolivia's Corredor Bioceancio

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Redo, Daniel J.

    2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    Page 62 Forest clearance (1986-2001) during the neoliberal period ....................... 373 63 Forest clearance (2005-2008) near Tres Cruces ......................................... 375 64 Forest clearance (2005-2008) in Nuevo M...

  14. Relationships among land ownership, land use, and landowner behavior changes in Gillespie and Washington Counties, Texas

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Steinbach, Mark Shane

    2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    requires balance of four general needs: (I) material and energy needs, (2) social needs, (3) spiritual needs, and (4) information needs (Gamman 1994;Gregg 1994). Management of today's resources requires cooperation among landowners and stakeholders...: agriculture production; recreational use; hunt lease operation; weekend vacation spot; to maintain a family farm; to provide wildlife habitat; to develop commercially; to use as long term investment; for scenic beauty; and for peace of mind. After each...

  15. Characterizing the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Freshwater Inflows

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ferijal, Teuku

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    and anthropogenic impacts on the contributing watersheds. The Guadalupe Estuary is a primary habitat for many endangered species. The Guadalupe River Watershed, which supplies 70% of freshwater inflows, experiences rapid urbanization and agricultural development...

  16. Modification ofregional groundwater regimes by land reclamation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jiao, Jiu Jimmy

    Modification ofregional groundwater regimes by land reclamation Jiu Jimmy Jiao Department ofEarth Sciences, The University ofHong Kong, P. R. China Abstract JJ.Jiao Land reclamation has played;Bouchardetal., 1998;Schofield etal., 1992). While reclamation provides valuable land, it also creates various

  17. Tropical Africa: Land use, biomass, and carbon estimates for 1980

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, S. [Environmental Protection Agency, Corvallis, OR (United States). Western Ecology Division; Gaston, G. [Environmental Protection Agency, Corvallis, OR (United States). National Research Council; Daniels, R.C. [ed.] [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1996-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This document describes the contents of a digital database containing maximum potential aboveground biomass, land use, and estimated biomass and carbon data for 1980 and describes a methodology that may be used to extend this data set to 1990 and beyond based on population and land cover data. The biomass data and carbon estimates are for woody vegetation in Tropical Africa. These data were collected to reduce the uncertainty associated with the possible magnitude of historical releases of carbon from land use change. Tropical Africa is defined here as encompassing 22.7 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2} of the earth`s land surface and includes those countries that for the most part are located in Tropical Africa. Countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea and in southern Africa (i.e., Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, and Western Sahara) have maximum potential biomass and land cover information but do not have biomass or carbon estimate. The database was developed using the GRID module in the ARC/INFO{sup TM} geographic information system. Source data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the U.S. National Geophysical Data Center, and a limited number of biomass-carbon density case studies. These data were used to derive the maximum potential and actual (ca. 1980) aboveground biomass-carbon values at regional and country levels. The land-use data provided were derived from a vegetation map originally produced for the FAO by the International Institute of Vegetation Mapping, Toulouse, France.

  18. LAND USE CHANGE IN BRAZIL: INTEGRATING ECOLOGY, ECONOMICS AND POLICY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    .g. Hydropower) Transport (e.g. roads) Agricultural Expansion Cultivation (e.g Smallholders) Cattle Ranching

  19. Simulating land use change in China from a global perspective

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Palmer, Paul

    markets and turbulence in global energy markets can affect food prices and supply costs. Therefore excludes new plantation, the main resource of new forest in China. Application of a simple business

  20. Climate change and land use in Florida: Interdependencies and opportunities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Watson, Craig A.

    a comprehensive greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory, which the Florida Department of Environmental Protection will develop over the next year. In addition to a GHG inventory and mitigation tools, a state climate action to increasingly dominate urban climate. · Florida ranks sixth in the US for total GHG emissions. The agricultural

  1. Resource Assessment and Land Use Change | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels DataDepartment of Energy Your Density Isn'tOrigin ofEnergy at Waste-to-Energy usingof Enhanced Dr. Julia PhillipsResource Assessment and

  2. Global&Change&and&Sustainability&Center& & Spring&Seminar&Series& &

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tipple, Brett

    modeling systems to evaluate the impact of outdoor irrigation on urban fluxes over the Los Angeles area irrigation module into the Noah- SLUCM (Single Layer Urban Canopy Model) land surface model and are also testing the utility of irrigation schemes in the ParFlow.CLM (Community Land Model). We also employ

  3. Neutrino geophysics with KamLAND and future prospects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. Enomoto; E. Ohtani; K. Inoue; A. Suzuki

    2005-10-20T23:59:59.000Z

    The Kamioka liquid scintillator anti-neutrino detector (KamLAND) is a low-energy and low-background neutrino detector which could be a useful probe for determining the U and Th abundances of the Earth. We constructed a model of the Earth in order to evaluate the rate of geologically produced anti-neutrinos (geo-neutrinos) detectable by KamLAND. We found that KamLAND can be used to determine the absolute abundances of U and Th in the Earth with an accuracy sufficient for placing important constraints on Earth's accretional process and succeeding thermal history. The present observation of geo-neutrinos with KamLAND is consistent with our model prediction based on the bulk silicate Earth (BSE) composition within the uncertainty of the measurement. If a neutrino detector were to be built in Hawaii, where effects of the continental crust would be negligible, it could be used to estimate the U and Th content in the lower mantle and the core. Our calculation of the geo-neutrino event rate on the Earth's surface indicates that geo-neutrino observation can provide key information for testing the current models for the content and distribution of U and Th in the Earth.

  4. Land Tenure (to the End of the Ptolemaic Period)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katary, Sally

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    for highly successful land reclamation in the Fayum,successful large-scale land reclamation (Kehoe 2010: 316).

  5. Moisture Flux Convergence in Regional and Global Climate Models: Implications for Droughts in the Southwestern United States Under Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gao, Yanhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Salathe, E.; Dominguez, Francina; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-05-10T23:59:59.000Z

    The water cycle of the southwestern United States (SW) is dominated by winter storms that maintain a positive annual net precipitation. Analysis of the control and future climate from four pairs of regional and global climate models (RCMs and GCMs) shows that the RCMs simulate a higher fraction of transient eddy moisture fluxes because the hydrodynamic instabilities associated with flow over complex terrain are better resolved. Under global warming, this enables the RCMs to capture the response of transient eddies to increased atmospheric stability that allows more moisture to converge on the windward side of the mountains by blocking. As a result, RCMs simulate enhanced transient eddy moisture convergence in the SW compared to GCMs, although both robustly simulate drying due to enhanced moisture divergence by the divergent mean flow in a warmer climate. This enhanced convergence leads to reduced susceptibility to hydrological change in the RCMs compared to GCMs.

  6. Paper presented at the 4th International Conference Working on Safety, Crete, Greece, 2008 Functional modeling for risk assessment of automation in a changing air

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhao, Yuxiao

    Functional modeling for risk assessment of automation in a changing air traffic management environment R or to let automation act autonomously. The Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) provides a framework from ERASMUS automation. Various instantiations of a partial model resulting from the application

  7. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lettenmaier, Dennis P

    2013-04-08T23:59:59.000Z

    Primary activities are reported in these areas: climate system component studies via one-way coupling experiments; development of the Regional Arctic Climate System Model (RACM); and physical feedback studies focusing on changes in Arctic sea ice using the fully coupled model.

  8. Comparison of avian species diversity and densities on non-mined and reclaimed surface-mined land in east-central Texas

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wenzel, Dawn Nicole

    2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Surface mining often changes the native landscape and vegetation of an area. Reclamation is used to counter this change, with the goal of restoring the land to its original pre-mined state. The process of reclamation creates early successional...

  9. Evaluating next-generation environmental policy tools : adaptive management in the Bureau of Land Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brandenburg, Peter (Peter J.)

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has begun to embrace the concept adaptive management as an alternative to traditional natural resource planning and management models. Adaptive management may provide BLM managers ...

  10. A Cross-model Comparison of Global Long-term Technology Diffusion under a 2?C Climate Change Control Target

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    van der Zwaan, Bob; Rosler, Hilke; Kober, Tom; Aboumahboub, Tino; Calvin, Katherine V.; Gernaat, David; Marangoni, Giacomo; McCollum, David

    2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We investigate the long-term global energy technology diffusion patterns required to reach a stringent climate change target with a maximum average atmospheric temperature increase of 2°C. If the anthropogenic temperature increase is to be limited to 2°C, total CO2 emissions have to be reduced massively, so as to reach substantial negative values during the second half of the century. Particularly power sector CO2 emissions should become negative from around 2050 onwards according to most models used for this analysis in order to compensate for GHG emissions in other sectors where abatement is more costly. The annual additional capacity deployment intensity (expressed in GW/yr) for solar and wind energy until 2030 needs to be around that recently observed for coal-based power plants, and will have to be several times higher in the period 2030–2050. Relatively high agreement exists across models in terms of the aggregated low-carbon energy system cost requirements on the supply side until 2050, which amount to about 50 trillion US$.

  11. Stewardship of public school land by the General Land Office

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zechiel, Tod Peter

    1987-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    (a V. Nrelnh Nnl da (L Nr(PN Huis I. Veil Ill(en S. Hncnf th hraa( 4 hn Ihpr. i ha Ner(n J. (Irasr ~ Veiler N. Irene Caryn @riot( S. ladler laali ~ N. Seal Nalrnvl lie J. R Ie Saa Nrrcn J Mf((ay Satan 1. Srpp ~ (luhorttlls liar ll ~ 9(5/bh... AND CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RANGELAND The Area Under Stewardshi p Climate of the Trans-Pecos Vegetational Associations of the Trans-Pecos Uses of the Range Resources OPERATIONS OF THE ALPINE FIELD OFFICE Responsibi 1ities Assisting the Land Management Division...

  12. Determining Greenland Ice Sheet sensitivity to regional climate change: one-way coupling of a 3-D thermo-mechanical ice sheet model with a mesoscale climate model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    ice sheet model with a mesoscale climate model By Nicole-ice sheet model with a mesoscale climate model Copyrightice sheet model with a mesoscale climate model by Nicole-

  13. Development of a Future Representative Concentration Pathway for Use in the IPCC 5th Assessment Earth System Model Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    2010-12-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The representative concentration pathway to be delivered is a scenario of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and other radiatively important atmospheric species, along with land-use changes, derived from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The particular representative concentration pathway (RCP) that the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) has been responsible for is a not-to-exceed pathway that stabilizes at a radiative forcing of 4.5Wm-2 in the year 2100.

  14. An Assessment of Land Availability and Price in the Coterminous United States for Conversion to Algal Biofuel Production

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Venteris, Erik R.; Skaggs, Richard; Coleman, Andre M.; Wigmosta, Mark S.

    2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Realistic economic assessment of land-intensive alternative energy sources (e.g., solar, wind, and biofuels) requires information on land availability and price. Accordingly, we created a comprehensive, national-scale model of these parameters for the United States. For algae-based biofuel, a minimum of 1.04E+05 km2 of land is needed to meet the 2022 EISA target of 2.1E+10 gallons year-1. We locate and quantify land types best converted. A data-driven model calculates the incentive to sell and a fair compensation value (real estate and lost future income). 1.02E+6 km2 of low slope, non-protected land is relatively available including croplands, pasture/ grazing, and forests. Within this total there is 2.64E+5 km2 of shrub and barren land available. The Federal government has 7.68E+4 km2 available for lease. Targeting unproductive lands minimizes land costs and impacts to existing industries. However, shrub and barren lands are limited by resources (water) and logistics, so land conversion requires careful consideration.

  15. Wind Development on Tribal Lands

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ken Haukaas; Dale Osborn; Belvin Pete

    2008-01-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Background: The Rosebud Sioux Tribe (RST) is located in south central South Dakota near the Nebraska border. The nearest community of size is Valentine, Nebraska. The RST is a recipient of several Department of Energy grants, written by Distributed Generation Systems, Inc. (Disgen), for the purposes of assessing the feasibility of its wind resource and subsequently to fund the development of the project. Disgen, as the contracting entity to the RST for this project, has completed all the pre-construction activities, with the exception of the power purchase agreement and interconnection agreement, to commence financing and construction of the project. The focus of this financing is to maximize the economic benefits to the RST while achieving commercially reasonable rates of return and fees for the other parties involved. Each of the development activities required and its status is discussed below. Land Resource: The Owl Feather War Bonnet 30 MW Wind Project is located on RST Tribal Trust Land of approximately 680 acres adjacent to the community of St. Francis, South Dakota. The RST Tribal Council has voted on several occasions for the development of this land for wind energy purposes, as has the District of St. Francis. Actual footprint of wind farm will be approx. 50 acres. Wind Resource Assessment: The wind data has been collected from the site since May 1, 2001 and continues to be collected and analyzed. The latest projections indicate a net capacity factor of 42% at a hub height of 80 meters. The data has been collected utilizing an NRG 9300 Data logger System with instrumentation installed at 30, 40 and 65 meters on an existing KINI radio tower. The long-term annual average wind speed at 65-meters above ground level is 18.2 mph (8.1 mps) and 18.7 mph (8.4 mps) at 80-meters agl. The wind resource is excellent and supports project financing.

  16. programs in climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    existing programs in climate change science and infrastructure. The Laboratory has a 15- year history in climate change science. The Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling (COSIM) project develops and maintains advanced numerical models of the ocean, sea ice, and ice sheets for use in global climate change

  17. Stormwater ManagementStormwater Management and Climate Change:and Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sheridan, Jennifer

    Stormwater ManagementStormwater Management and Climate Change:and Climate Change: Implications for · Wisconsin's changing climate · Stormwater management · Impacts and adaptation #12;WICCI Identifying impacts as weather #12;High water impacts June 1-15, 2008 38 River gauges broke records 810 Square miles of land

  18. MODELLING A COASTAL LAKE FOR FLOOD AND QUALITY E. Giusti, S. Marsili-Libelli*, A. Gualchieri

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    water shortage due to climate changes and by land subsidence. To cope with these adversities a project, when the water level falls below the sea level. This, in addition to representing a water shortage/quality model of the lake and its tributaries to be integrated in a Decision Support System to manage the water

  19. The LandScan Global Population Distribution Project: Current State of the Art and Prospective Innovation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Advances in remote sensing, dasymetric mapping techniques, and the ever-increasing availability of spatial datasets have enhanced global human population distribution databases. These datasets demonstrate an enormous improvement over the conventional use of choropleth maps to represent population distribution and are vital for analysis and planning purposes including humanitarian response, disease mapping, risk analysis, and evacuation modeling. Dasymetric mapping techniques have been employed to address spatial mismatch, but also to develop finer resolution population distributions in areas of the world where subnational census data are coarse or non-existent. One such implementation is the LandScan Global model which provides a 30 arc-second global population distribution based on ancillary datasets such as land cover, slope, proximity to roads, and settlement locations. This work will review the current state of the LandScan model, future innovations aimed at increasing spatial and demographic resolution, and situate LandScan within the landscape of other global population distribution datasets.

  20. Modeling the effect of climate change on U.S. state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon E.; Eom, Jiyong; Kyle, G. Page; Patel, Pralit L.; Kim, Son H.; Dirks, James A.; Jensen, Erik A.; Liu, Ying; Rice, Jennie S.; Schmidt, Laurel C.; Seiple, Timothy E.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    As long-term socioeconomic transformation and energy service expansion show large spatial heterogeneity, advanced understanding of climate impact on building energy use at the sub-national level will offer useful insights into climate policy and regional energy system planning. In this study, we presented a detailed building energy model with a U.S. state-level representation, nested in the GCAM integrated assessment framework. We projected state-level building energy demand and its spatial pattern over the century, considering the impact of climate change based on the estimates of heating and cooling degree days derived from downscaled USGS CASCaDE temperature data. The result indicates that climate change has a large impact on heating and cooling building energy and fuel use at the state level, exhibiting large spatial heterogeneity across states (ranges from -10% to +10%). The sensitivity analysis reveals that the building energy demand is subject to multiple key factors, such as the magnitude of climate change, the choice of climate models, and the growth of population and GDP, and that their relative contributions vary greatly across the space. The scale impact in building energy use modeling highlights the importance of constructing a building energy model with the spatially-explicit representation of socioeconomics, energy system development, and climate change. These findings will help the climate-based policy decision and energy system, especially utility planning related to building sector at the U.S. state and regional level facing the potential climate change.