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Sample records for land change modeler

  1. IDRISI Land Change Modeler | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    IDRISI Land Change Modeler Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: IDRISI Land Change Modeler AgencyCompany Organization: Clark Labs Sector: Land Focus Area:...

  2. Land Use and Land Cover Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, Daniel; Polsky, Colin; Bolstad, Paul V.; Brody, Samuel D.; Hulse, David; Kroh, Roger; Loveland, Thomas; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-05-01

    A contribution to the 3rd National Climate Assessment report, discussing the following key messages: 1. Choices about land-use and land-cover patterns have affected and will continue to affect how vulnerable or resilient human communities and ecosystems are to the effects of climate change. 2. Land-use and land-cover changes affect local, regional, and global climate processes. 3. Individuals, organizations, and governments have the capacity to make land-use decisions to adapt to the effects of climate change. 4. Choices about land use and land management provide a means of reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas levels.

  3. Land-Use Change and Bioenergy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2011-07-01

    This publication describes the Biomass Program’s efforts to examine the intersection of land-use change and bioenergy production. It describes legislation requiring land-use change assessments, key data and modeling challenges, and the research needs to better assess and understand the impact of bioenergy policy on land-use decisions.

  4. Assessment of uncertainties in the response of the African monsoon precipitation to land use change simulated by a regional model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby; Xue, Yongkang; Boone, Aaron; de Sales, Fernando; Neupane, Naresh; Huang, Maoyi; Yoon, Jin -Ho

    2014-02-22

    Land use and land cover over Africa have changed substantially over the last sixty years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties on the effect of these changes on the African Monsoon system and Sahel precipitation using an ensemble of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Furthermore, the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubs and an increase in surface air temperature.

  5. Assessment of Uncertainties in the Response of the African Monsoon Precipitation to Land Use change simulated by a regional model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Xue, Yongkang; Boone, Aaron; de Sales, Fernando; Neupane, Naresh; Huang, Maoyi; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2014-02-22

    Land use and land cover over Africa have changed substantially over the last sixty years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties on the effect of these changes on the African Monsoon system and Sahel precipitation using an ensemble of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Although the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubs and an increase in surface air temperature.

  6. Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schmitz, Christoph; van Meijl, Hans; Kyle, G. Page; Nelson, Gerald C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gurgel, Angelo; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; von Lampe, Martin; Wise, Marshall A.; Blanc, Elodie; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Valin, Hugo

    2014-01-01

    Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 1025% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.

  7. Assessment of uncertainties in the response of the African monsoon precipitation to land use change simulated by a regional model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby; Xue, Yongkang; Boone, Aaron; de Sales, Fernando; Neupane, Naresh; Huang, Maoyi; Yoon, Jin -Ho

    2014-02-22

    Land use and land cover over Africa have changed substantially over the last sixty years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties on the effect of these changes on the African Monsoon system and Sahel precipitation using an ensemble of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Furthermore, the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubsmore » and an increase in surface air temperature.« less

  8. Soil Carbon Change and Net Energy Associated with Biofuel Production on Marginal Lands: A Regional Modeling Perspective

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bandaru, Varaprasad; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Manowitz, David H.; Link, Robert P.; Zhang, Xuesong; Post, W. M.

    2013-12-01

    The use of marginal lands (MLs) for biofuel production has been contemplated as a promising solution for meeting biofuel demands. However, there have been concerns with spatial location of MLs, their inherent biofuel potential, and possible environmental consequences with the cultivation of energy crops. Here, we developed a new quantitative approach that integrates high-resolution land cover and land productivity maps and uses conditional probability density functions for analyzing land use patterns as a function of land productivity to classify the agricultural lands. We subsequently applied this method to determine available productive croplands (P-CLs) and non-crop marginal lands (NC-MLs) in a nine-county Southern Michigan. Furthermore, Spatially Explicit Integrated Modeling Framework (SEIMF) using EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) was used to understand the net energy (NE) and soil organic carbon (SOC) implications of cultivating different annual and perennial production systems.

  9. What is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, M. L.; Rajagopalan, K.; Chung, S. H.; Jiang, X.; Harrison, J. H.; Nergui, T.; Guenther, Alex B.; Miller, C.; Reyes, J.; Tague, C. L.; Choate, J. S.; Salathe, E.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Adam, J. C.

    2014-05-16

    Regional climate change impact (CCI) studies have widely involved downscaling and bias-correcting (BC) Global Climate Model (GCM)-projected climate for driving land surface models. However, BC may cause uncertainties in projecting hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to future climate due to the impaired spatiotemporal covariance of climate variables and a breakdown of physical conservation principles. Here we quantify the impact of BC on simulated climate-driven changes in water variables(evapotranspiration, ET; runoff; snow water equivalent, SWE; and water demand for irrigation), crop yield, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC), nitric oxide (NO) emissions, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) Region. We also quantify the impacts on net primary production (NPP) over a small watershed in the region (HJ Andrews). Simulation results from the coupled ECHAM5/MPI-OM model with A1B emission scenario were firstly dynamically downscaled to 12 km resolutions with WRF model. Then a quantile mapping based statistical downscaling model was used to downscale them into 1/16th degree resolution daily climate data over historical and future periods. Two series climate data were generated according to the option of bias-correction (i.e. with bias-correction (BC) and without bias-correction, NBC). Impact models were then applied to estimate hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to both BC and NBC meteorological datasets. These im20 pact models include a macro-scale hydrologic model (VIC), a coupled cropping system model (VIC-CropSyst), an ecohydrologic model (RHESSys), a biogenic emissions model (MEGAN), and a nutrient export model (Global-NEWS). Results demonstrate that the BC and NBC climate data provide consistent estimates of the climate-driven changes in water fluxes (ET, runoff, and water demand), VOCs (isoprene and monoterpenes) and NO emissions, mean crop yield, and river DIN export over the PNW domain. However

  10. Quantifying the impacts of land surface schemes and dynamic vegetation on the model dependency of projected changes in surface energy and water budgets

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yu, Miao; Wang, Guiling; Chen, Haishan

    2016-03-01

    Assessing and quantifying the uncertainties in projected future changes of energy and water budgets over land surface are important steps toward improving our confidence in climate change projections. In our study, the contribution of land surface models to the inter-GCM variation of projected future changes in land surface energy and water fluxes are assessed based on output from 19 global climate models (GCMs) and offline Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) simulations driven by meteorological forcing from the 19 GCMs. Similar offline simulations using CLM4 with its dynamic vegetation submodel are also conducted to investigate how dynamic vegetation feedback, amore » process that is being added to more earth system models, may amplify or moderate the intermodel variations of projected future changes. Projected changes are quantified as the difference between the 2081–2100 period from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) future experiment and the 1981–2000 period from the historical simulation. Under RCP8.5, projected changes in surface water and heat fluxes show a high degree of model dependency across the globe. Although precipitation is very likely to increase in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, a high degree of model-related uncertainty exists for evapotranspiration, soil water content, and surface runoff, suggesting discrepancy among land surface models (LSMs) in simulating the surface hydrological processes and snow-related processes. Large model-related uncertainties for the surface water budget also exist in the Tropics including southeastern South America and Central Africa. Moreover, these uncertainties would be reduced in the hypothetical scenario of a single near-perfect land surface model being used across all GCMs, suggesting the potential to reduce uncertainties through the use of more consistent approaches toward land surface model development. Under such a scenario, the most significant reduction is likely to

  11. Climate Effects of Global Land Cover Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gibbard, S G; Caldeira, K; Bala, G; Phillips, T; Wickett, M

    2005-08-24

    There are two competing effects of global land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to heating when changing from grass/croplands to forest, and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate in a global land cover change scenario. We have performed coupled land/ocean/atmosphere simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model. We find that replacement of current vegetation by trees on a global basis would lead to a global annual mean warming of 1.6 C, nearly 75% of the warming produced under a doubled CO{sub 2} concentration, while global replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4 C. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming. In particular, high latitude forests probably have a net warming effect on the Earth's climate.

  12. Ecosystem feedbacks to climate change in California: Development, testing, and analysis using a coupled regional atmosphere and land-surface model (WRF3-CLM3.5)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Subin, Z.M.; Riley, W.J.; Kueppers, L.M.; Jin, J.; Christianson, D.S.; Torn, M.S.

    2010-11-01

    A regional atmosphere model [Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3 (WRF3)] and a land surface model [Community Land Model, version 3.5 (CLM3.5)] were coupled to study the interactions between the atmosphere and possible future California land-cover changes. The impact was evaluated on California's climate of changes in natural vegetation under climate change and of intentional afforestation. The ability of WRF3 to simulate California's climate was assessed by comparing simulations by WRF3-CLM3.5 and WRF3-Noah to observations from 1982 to 1991. Using WRF3-CLM3.5, the authors performed six 13-yr experiments using historical and future large-scale climate boundary conditions from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The land-cover scenarios included historical and future natural vegetation from the Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System-Century 1 (MC1) dynamic vegetation model, in addition to a future 8-million-ha California afforestation scenario. Natural vegetation changes alone caused summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature changes of -0.7 to +1 C in regions without persistent snow cover, depending on the location and the type of vegetation change. Vegetation temperature changes were much larger than the 2-m air temperature changes because of the finescale spatial heterogeneity of the imposed vegetation change. Up to 30% of the magnitude of the summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature increase and 70% of the magnitude of the 1600 local time (LT) vegetation temperature increase projected under future climate change were attributable to the climate-driven shift in land cover. The authors projected that afforestation could cause local 0.2-1.2 C reductions in summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature and 2.0-3.7 C reductions in 1600 LT vegetation temperature for snow-free regions, primarily because of increased evapotranspiration. Because some of these temperature changes are of comparable magnitude to those projected under

  13. A framework for benchmarking land models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Luo, Yiqi; Randerson, J.; Abramowitz, G.; Bacour, C.; Blyth, E.; Carvalhais, N.; Ciais, Philippe; Dalmonech, D.; Fisher, J.B.; Fisher, R.; Friedlingstein, P.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Hoffman, F. M.; Huntzinger, Deborah; Jones, C.; Koven, C.; Lawrence, David M.; Li, D.J.; Mahecha, M.; Niu, S.L.; Norby, Richard J.; Piao, S.L.; Qi, X.; Peylin, P.; Prentice, I.C.; Riley, William; Reichstein, M.; Schwalm, C.; Wang, Y.; Xia, J. Y.; Zaehle, S.; Zhou, X. H.

    2012-10-09

    Land models, which have been developed by the modeling community in the past few decades to predict future states of ecosystems and climate, have to be critically evaluated for their performance skills of simulating ecosystem responses and feedback to climate change. Benchmarking is an emerging procedure to measure performance of models against a set of defined standards. This paper proposes a benchmarking framework for evaluation of land model performances and, meanwhile, highlights major challenges at this infant stage of benchmark analysis. The framework includes (1) targeted aspects of model performance to be evaluated, (2) a set of benchmarks as defined references to test model performance, (3) metrics to measure and compare performance skills among models so as to identify model strengths and deficiencies, and (4) model improvement. Land models are required to simulate exchange of water, energy, carbon and sometimes other trace gases between the atmosphere and land surface, and should be evaluated for their simulations of biophysical processes, biogeochemical cycles, and vegetation dynamics in response to climate change across broad temporal and spatial scales. Thus, one major challenge is to select and define a limited number of benchmarks to effectively evaluate land model performance. The second challenge is to develop metrics of measuring mismatches between models and benchmarks. The metrics may include (1) a priori thresholds of acceptable model performance and (2) a scoring system to combine datamodel mismatches for various processes at different temporal and spatial scales. The benchmark analyses should identify clues of weak model performance to guide future development, thus enabling improved predictions of future states of ecosystems and climate. The near-future research effort should be on development of a set of widely acceptable benchmarks that can be used to objectively, effectively, and reliably evaluate fundamental properties of land models

  14. A framework for benchmarking land models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Luo, Yiqi; Randerson, James T.; Hoffman, Forrest; Norby, Richard J

    2012-01-01

    Land models, which have been developed by the modeling community in the past few decades to predict future states of ecosystems and climate, have to be critically evaluated for their performance skills of simulating ecosystem responses and feedback to climate change. Benchmarking is an emerging procedure to measure performance of models against a set of defined standards. This paper proposes a benchmarking framework for evaluation of land model performances and, meanwhile, highlights major challenges at this infant stage of benchmark analysis. The framework includes (1) targeted aspects of model performance to be evaluated, (2) a set of benchmarks as defined references to test model performance, (3) metrics to measure and compare performance skills among models so as to identify model strengths and deficiencies, and (4) model improvement. Land models are required to simulate exchange of water, energy, carbon and sometimes other trace gases between the atmosphere and land surface, and should be evaluated for their simulations of biophysical processes, biogeochemical cycles, and vegetation dynamics in response to climate change across broad temporal and spatial scales. Thus, one major challenge is to select and define a limited number of benchmarks to effectively evaluate land model performance. The second challenge is to develop metrics of measuring mismatches between models and benchmarks. The metrics may include (1) a priori thresholds of acceptable model performance and (2) a scoring system to combine data model mismatches for various processes at different temporal and spatial scales. The benchmark analyses should identify clues of weak model performance to guide future development, thus enabling improved predictions of future states of ecosystems and climate. The near-future research effort should be on development of a set of widely acceptable benchmarks that can be used to objectively, effectively, and reliably evaluate fundamental properties of land models

  15. Bioenergy and Land Use Change

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-07-26

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratoy has developed a new system dynamics global LUC model intended to examine LUC attributed to biofuel production. The model represents major global, stocks, flows and produces results under different food and biofuel demand assumptions, with flexible regional divisions. This model is not intended to generate precise numerical estimates, but instead to provide insights into the drivers and dynamic interactions of LUC, population, dietary choices, and biofuel policy.

  16. Soil carbon sequestration and land use change associated with...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Soil carbon sequestration and land use change associated with biofuel production: empirical evidence Title Soil carbon sequestration and land use change associated with biofuel...

  17. Land-Use Change Data Analysis

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review 4.1.2.40 Land-Use Change Data Analysis 03/25/2015 Analysis & Sustainability Nagendra Singh (PI) Keith Kline, Rebecca Efroymson, Raju Vatsavai, Huina Mao, Erica Pham, Budhendra Bhaduri. Oak Ridge National Laboratory This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information 2 Presentation name Goal Statement Project Goal Design and develop scalable tools and assessment methods to establish scientific basis for

  18. Integrated Assessment and the Relation Between Land-Use Change and Climate Change

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Dale, V. H.

    1994-10-07

    Integrated assessment is an approach that is useful in evaluating the consequences of global climate change. Understanding the consequences requires knowledge of the relationship between land-use change and climate change. Methodologies for assessing the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations are considered with reference to a particular case study area: south and southeast Asia. The use of models to evaluate the consequences of climate change on forests must also consider an assessment approach. Each of these points is discussed in the following four sections.

  19. Quantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land Use Change

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    GHG Emissions | Department of Energy Quantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land Use Change GHG Emissions Quantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land Use Change GHG Emissions Plenary V: Biofuels and Sustainability: Acknowledging Challenges and Confronting Misconceptions Quantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land Use Change GHG Emissions Jennifer B. Dunn, Energy Systems and Sustainability Analyst, Argonne National Laboratory

  20. Bayesian Calibration of the Community Land Model using Surrogates...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Bayesian Calibration of the Community Land Model using Surrogates Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Bayesian Calibration of the Community Land Model using Surrogates We ...

  1. Vectorizing the Community Land Model (CLM) (Journal Article)...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: Vectorizing the Community Land Model (CLM) Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Vectorizing the Community Land Model (CLM) In this paper we describe our...

  2. Department of Energy Land Ice Modeling Efforts (Conference) ...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Energy Land Ice Modeling Efforts Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Department of Energy Land Ice Modeling Efforts Authors: Price, Stephen F. Dr 1 + Show Author...

  3. Consideration of land use change-induced surface albedo effects...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    effects in life-cycle analysis of biofuels Title Consideration of land use change-induced surface albedo effects in life-cycle analysis of biofuels Publication Type Journal Article ...

  4. EVALUATION OF LAND USE/LAND COVER DATASETS FOR URBAN WATERSHED MODELING

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S.J. BURIAN; M.J. BROWN; T.N. MCPHERSON

    2001-08-01

    Land use/land cover (LULC) data are a vital component for nonpoint source pollution modeling. Most watershed hydrology and pollutant loading models use, in some capacity, LULC information to generate runoff and pollutant loading estimates. Simple equation methods predict runoff and pollutant loads using runoff coefficients or pollutant export coefficients that are often correlated to LULC type. Complex models use input variables and parameters to represent watershed characteristics and pollutant buildup and washoff rates as a function of LULC type. Whether using simple or complex models an accurate LULC dataset with an appropriate spatial resolution and level of detail is paramount for reliable predictions. The study presented in this paper compared and evaluated several LULC dataset sources for application in urban environmental modeling. The commonly used USGS LULC datasets have coarser spatial resolution and lower levels of classification than other LULC datasets. In addition, the USGS datasets do not accurately represent the land use in areas that have undergone significant land use change during the past two decades. We performed a watershed modeling analysis of three urban catchments in Los Angeles, California, USA to investigate the relative difference in average annual runoff volumes and total suspended solids (TSS) loads when using the USGS LULC dataset versus using a more detailed and current LULC dataset. When the two LULC datasets were aggregated to the same land use categories, the relative differences in predicted average annual runoff volumes and TSS loads from the three catchments were 8 to 14% and 13 to 40%, respectively. The relative differences did not have a predictable relationship with catchment size.

  5. Effects of climate change, land-use change, and invasive species on the ecology of the Cumberland forests

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dale, Virginia H; Lannom, Karen O.; Hodges, Donald G.; Tharp, M Lynn; Fogel, Jonah

    2009-02-01

    Effects of climate change, land-use change, and invasive species on the ecology of the Cumberland forests

  6. Global Biofuels Modeling and Land Use

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Biofuels Modeling and Land Use DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Strategic Analysis & Cross-cutting Sustainability March 25 2015 Gbadebo Oladosu (PI) Oak Ridge National Laboratory This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information GOAL STATEMENT * Primary goal of the project is to demonstrate the viability of biofuels in the context of the national/global economy. * Metrics include: - Cost effectiveness:

  7. Soil carbon sequestration and land use change associated with biofuel production: Empirical evidence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qin, Zhangcai; Dunn, Jennifer B.; Kwon, Hoyoung; Mueller, Steffen; Wander, Michelle M.

    2016-01-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) change can be a major impact of land use change (LUC) associated with biofuel feedstock production. By collecting and analyzing data from worldwide field observations with major LUCs from cropland, grassland and forest to lands producing biofuel crops (i.e., corn, switchgrass, Miscanthus, poplar and willow), we were able to estimate SOC response ratios and sequestration rates and evaluate the effects of soil depth and time scale on SOC change. Both the amount and rate of SOC change were highly dependent on the specific land transition. Irrespective of soil depth or time horizon, cropland conversions resulted in an overall SOC gain of 6-14% relative to initial SOC level, while conversion from grassland or forest to corn (without residue removal) or poplar caused significant carbon loss (9-35%). No significant SOC changes were observed in land converted from grasslands or forests to switchgrass, Miscanthus or willow. The SOC response ratios were similar in both 0-30 and 0-100 cm soil depths in most cases, suggesting SOC changes in deep soil and that use of top soil only for SOC accounting in biofuel life cycle analysis (LCA) might underestimate total SOC changes. Soil carbon sequestration rates varied greatly among studies and land transition types. Generally, the rates of SOC change tended to be the greatest during the 10 years following land conversion, and had declined to approach 0 within about 20 years for most LUCs. Observed trends in SOC change were generally consistent with previous reports. Soil depth and duration of study significantly influence SOC change rates and so should be considered in carbon emission accounting in biofuel LCA. High uncertainty remains for many perennial systems, field trials and modeling efforts are needed to determine the site- and system-specific rates and direction of change associated with their production.

  8. Land-Use Change Data and Causal Analysis

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Land-Use Change Data and Causal Analysis 05/21/2013 Analysis & Sustainability Nagendra Singh (PI), Keith Kline, Rebecca Efroymson, Varun Chandola, Esther Parish, Budhendra Bhaduri Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information 2 Presentation name Goal Statement Project Goal * Design and develop tools and assessment methods to establish scientific basis for understanding and simulating effects

  9. Watershed response and land energy feedbacks under climate change depend upon groundwater.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maxwell, R M; Kollet, S J

    2008-06-10

    Human induced climate change will have a significant impact on the hydrologic cycle, creating changes in fresh water resources, land cover, and feedbacks that are difficult to characterize, which makes it an issue of global importance. Previous studies have not included subsurface storage in climate change simulations and feedbacks. A variably-saturated groundwater flow model with integrated overland flow and land surface model processes is used to examine the interplay between coupled water and energy processes under climate change conditions. A case study from the Southern Great Plains (SGP) USA, an important agricultural region that is susceptible to drought, is used as the basis for three scenarios simulations using a modified atmospheric forcing dataset to reflect predicted effects due to human-induced climate change. These scenarios include an increase in the atmospheric temperature and variations in rainfall amount and are compared to the present-day climate case. Changes in shallow soil saturation and groundwater levels are quantified as well as the corresponding energy fluxes at the land surface. Here we show that groundwater and subsurface lateral flow processes are critical in understanding hydrologic response and energy feedbacks to climate change and that certain regions are more susceptible to changes in temperature, while others to changes in precipitation. This groundwater control is critical for understanding recharge and drought processes, possible under future climate conditions.

  10. Baselines For Land-Use Change In The Tropics: Application ToAvoided Deforestation Projects

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, Sandra; Hall, Myrna; Andrasko, Ken; Ruiz, Fernando; Marzoli, Walter; Guerrero, Gabriela; Masera, Omar; Dushku, Aaron; Dejong,Ben; Cornell, Joseph

    2007-06-01

    Although forest conservation activities particularly in thetropics offer significant potential for mitigating carbon emissions,these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena causedby the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle,particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has twomain components: the projected land-use change and the correspondingcarbon stocks in the applicable pools such as vegetation, detritus,products and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult toaddress analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparingthree models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of pasttrends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth tomore complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicitmodels of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomicfactors. The three models of the latter category used in the analysis atregional scale are The Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use andCarbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD)model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropicalregions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions,population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) SantaCruz State, Bolivia; (3) Parana State in Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico;(5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacan, Mexico. A comparison of all modeloutputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quitedifferent deforestation baseline. In general, the simplest FAC model,applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highestamount of forest loss (four out of six) and the LUCS model the leastamount of loss (four out of five). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, wefound that readily observable physical and biological factors as well asdistance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as importantas either sociological/demographic or economic

  11. Assessment of Land Surface Model Performance in WRF for Simulating...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wind Energy Community Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Assessment of Land Surface Model Performance in WRF for Simulating Wind at Heights Relevant to the Wind Energy ...

  12. Assessment of Land Surface Model Performance in WRF for Simulating...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Assessment of Land Surface Model Performance in WRF for Simulating Wind at Heights Relevant to the Wind Energy Community Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Assessment of ...

  13. Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB). Users' manual and technical documentation.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mueller, S; Dunn, JB; Wang, M

    2012-06-07

    The Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB) calculates carbon emissions from land use change (LUC) for four different ethanol production pathways including corn grain ethanol and cellulosic ethanol from corn stover, miscanthus, and switchgrass. This document discusses the version of CCLUB released May 31, 2012 which includes corn, as did the previous CCLUB version, and three cellulosic feedstocks: corn stover, miscanthus, and switchgrass. CCLUB calculations are based upon two data sets: land change areas and above- and below-ground carbon content. Table 1 identifies where these data are stored and used within the CCLUB model, which is built in MS Excel. Land change area data is from Purdue University's Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) economic model. Section 2 describes the GTAP data CCLUB uses and how these data were modified to reflect shrubland transitions. Feedstock- and spatially-explicit below-ground carbon content data for the United States were generated with a surrogate model for CENTURY's soil organic carbon sub-model (Kwon and Hudson 2010) as described in Section 3. CENTURY is a soil organic matter model developed by Parton et al. (1987). The previous CCLUB version used more coarse domestic carbon emission factors. Above-ground non-soil carbon content data for forest ecosystems was sourced from the USDA/NCIAS Carbon Online Estimator (COLE) as explained in Section 4. We discuss emission factors used for calculation of international greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Section 5. Temporal issues associated with modeling LUC emissions are the topic of Section 6. Finally, in Section 7 we provide a step-by-step guide to using CCLUB and obtaining results.

  14. Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Torn, Margaret S.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison M.; Chini, Louise M.; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter; Hurtt, George; Wise, Marshall A.

    2013-06-01

    Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standard RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 °C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCP’s, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.

  15. Integrated Dynamic Gloabal Modeling of Land Use, Energy and Economic Growth

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Atul Jain, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL Brian O'Neill, NCAR, Boulder, CO

    2009-10-14

    The overall objective of this collaborative project is to integrate an existing general equilibrium energy-economic growth model with a biogeochemical cycles and biophysical models in order to more fully explore the potential contribution of land use-related activities to future emissions scenarios. Land cover and land use change activities, including deforestation, afforestation, and agriculture management, are important source of not only CO2, but also non-CO2 GHGs. Therefore, contribution of land-use emissions to total emissions of GHGs is important, and consequently their future trends are relevant to the estimation of climate change and its mitigation. This final report covers the full project period of the award, beginning May 2006, which includes a sub-contract to Brown University later transferred to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) when Co-PI Brian O'Neill changed institutional affiliations.

  16. Land use change and carbon exchange in the tropics. I. Detailed estimates for Costa Rice, Panama, Peru, and Bolivia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hall, C.A.S.; Detwiler, R.P.; Bogdonoff, P.; Underhill, S.

    1985-01-01

    This group, composed of modelers working in conjunction with tropical ecologists, has produced a simulation model that quantifies the net carbon exchange between tropical vegetation and the atmosphere due to land use change. The model calculates this net exchange by combining estimates of land use change with several estimates of the carbon stored in tropical vegetation and general assumptions about the fate of cleared vegetation. In this report, the authors use estimates of land use and carbon of land use and carbon storage organized into six life zone (sensu Holdridge) categories to calculate the exchange between the atmosphere and the vegetation of four tropical countries. Their analyses of these countries indicate that this life zone approach has several advantages because (a) the carbon content of vegetation varies significantly among life zones, (b) much of the land use change occurs in life zones of only moderate carbon storage, and (c) the fate of cleared vegetation varies among life zones. Their analyses also emphasize the importance of distinguishing between temporary and permanent land use change, as the recovery of vegetation on abandoned areas decreases the net release of carbon due to clearing. They include sensitivity analysis of those factors that they found to be important but are difficult to quantify at present.

  17. Economic and Physical Modeling of Land Use in GCAM 3.0 and an Application to Agricultural Productivity, Land, and Terrestrial Carbon

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wise, Marshall A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Edmonds, James A.

    2014-09-01

    We explore the impact of changes in agricultural productivity on global land use and terrestrial carbon using the new agriculture and land use modeling approach developed for Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. This approach models economic land use decisions with regional, physical, and technological specificity while maintaining economic and physical integration with the rest of the GCAM model. Physical land characteristics and quantities are tracked explicitly, and crop production practices are modeled discretely to facilitate coupling with physical models. Economic land allocation is modeled with non-linear functions in a market equilibrium rather than through a constrained optimization. In this paper, we explore three scenarios of future agriculture productivity in all regions of the globe over this century, ranging from a high growth to a zero growth level. The higher productivity growth scenario leads to lower crop prices, increased production of crops in developing nations, preservation of global forested lands and lower terrestrial carbon emissions. The scenario with no productivity improvement results in higher crop prices, an expansion of crop production in the developed world, loss of forested lands globally, and higher terrestrial carbon emissions.

  18. Climate Change Mitigation Through Land-Use Measures in the Agriculture...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    and Forestry Sectors Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Climate Change Mitigation Through Land-Use Measures in the Agriculture and Forestry...

  19. Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, Andrew D.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.

    2015-08-01

    We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm–2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.

  20. Impact of modern climate change on the intercommunication: Global ocean-land (Northern Hemisphere)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lobanova, H.V.; Lobanov, V.A.; Stepanenko, S.R.

    1996-12-31

    Two main temperature gradients define the synoptic and climatic conditions on the earth in general: equator-pole gradient and ocean-land gradient. The analysis of temperature on the basis of new cyclic-different-scales conception has been fulfilled in every important part of the climatic system in the Northern Hemisphere for assessment of their vulnerability to modern climate change. Historical time series of monthly surface temperature have been used for this aim in the points of regular grid over the Northern Hemisphere from 1891 to 1992. The main feature of the temperature in main climatic parts of the earth is a complexity of its spatial structure. New methods of spatial decomposition have been developed for the division of this complex fields structure into characteristics of mean value of the field and index of its non-homogeneity or spatial variation. It has been established, that the temperature gradient between ocean and land is increasing that is characterized of the increasing of an intensity of synoptic processes, their spatial non-homogeneity and more frequent appearance of the extreme synoptic events. The models of intercommunications between coefficients of temperature spatial decomposition over the ocean and land have been developed for two time period and the increasing of the relationships closeness has been established between ocean and land as well as the decrease of main planet gradient: the pole(the Polar ocean)-equator.

  1. Impact of land use change on the local climate over the Tibetan Plateau

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jin, J.; Lu, S.; Li, S.; Miller, N.L.

    2010-04-01

    Observational data show that the remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) has a significant downward trend over the east Tibetan Plateau (TP), while a warming trend is found in the same area. Further analysis indicates that this warming trend mainly results from the nighttime warming. The Single-Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM) version 3.1 developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research is used to investigate the role of land use change in the TP local climate system and isolate the contribution of land use change to the warming. Two sets of SCAM simulations were performed at the Xinghai station that is located near the center of the TP Sanjiang (three rivers) Nature Reserve where the downward LAI trend is largest. These simulations were forced with the high and low LAIs. The modeling results indicate that, when the LAI changes from high to low, the daytime temperature has a slight decrease, while the nighttime temperature increases significantly, which is consistent with the observations. The modeling results further show that the lower surface roughness length plays a significant role in affecting the nighttime temperature increase.

  2. Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB). Users' Manual and Technical Documentation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dunn, Jennifer B.; Qin, Zhangcai; Mueller, Steffen; Kwon, Ho-young; Wander, Michelle M.; Wang, Michael

    2014-09-01

    The Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB) calculates carbon emissions from land use change (LUC) for four different ethanol production pathways including corn grain ethanol and cellulosic ethanol from corn stover, Miscanthus, and switchgrass. This document discusses the version of CCLUB released September 30, 2014 which includes corn and three cellulosic feedstocks: corn stover, Miscanthus, and switchgrass.

  3. Global Biofuels Modeling and Land Use

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... equilibrium models * Oil, natural gas and coal supply curves are explicitly modeled to ... supplyuse of biofuels depends on how consumers respond in the transportation market. ...

  4. International land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Package v002.00

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Collier, Nathaniel; Hoffman, Forrest M. [Climage Modeling.org; Mu, Mingquan [University of California, Irvine; Randerson, James T. [University of California, Irvine; Riley, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

    2016-05-09

    As a contribution to International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Project, we are providing new analysis approaches, benchmarking tools, and science leadership. The goal of ILAMB is to assess and improve the performance of land models through international cooperation and to inform the design of new measurement campaigns and field studies to reduce uncertainties associated with key biogeochemical processes and feedbacks. ILAMB is expected to be a primary analysis tool for CMIP6 and future model-data intercomparison experiments. This team has developed initial prototype benchmarking systems for ILAMB, which will be improved and extended to include ocean model metrics and diagnostics.

  5. International land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Package v001.00

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Mu, Mingquan [University of California, Irvine; Randerson, James T. [University of California, Irvine; Riley, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Hoffman, Forrest M. [Climage Modeling.org; Oak Ridge National Laboratory

    2016-05-02

    As a contribution to International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Project, we are providing new analysis approaches, benchmarking tools, and science leadership. The goal of ILAMB is to assess and improve the performance of land models through international cooperation and to inform the design of new measurement campaigns and field studies to reduce uncertainties associated with key biogeochemical processes and feedbacks. ILAMB is expected to be a primary analysis tool for CMIP6 and future model-data intercomparison experiments. This team has developed initial prototype benchmarking systems for ILAMB, which will be improved and extended to include ocean model metrics and diagnostics.

  6. On linking an Earth system model to the equilibrium carbon representation of an economically optimizing land use model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Calvin, Katherine V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Mao, Jiafu; Patel, Pralit L.; Shi, Xiaoying; Thomson, Allison M.; Thornton, Peter E.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2014-01-01

    Human activities are significantly altering biogeochemical cycles at the global scale, posing a significant problem for earth system models (ESMs), which may incorporate static land-use change inputs but do not actively simulate policy or economic forces. One option to address this problem is a to couple an ESM with an economically oriented integrated assessment model. Here we have implemented and tested a coupling mechanism between the carbon cycles of an ESM (CLM) and an integrated assessment (GCAM) model, examining the best proxy variables to share between the models, and quantifying our ability to distinguish climate- and land-use-driven flux changes. CLMs net primary production and heterotrophic respiration outputs were found to be the most robust proxy variables by which to manipulate GCAMs assumptions of long-term ecosystem steady state carbon, with short-term forest production strongly correlated with long-term biomass changes in climate-change model runs. By leveraging the fact that carbon-cycle effects of anthropogenic land-use change are short-term and spatially limited relative to widely distributed climate effects, we were able to distinguish these effects successfully in the model coupling, passing only the latter to GCAM. By allowing climate effects from a full earth system model to dynamically modulate the economic and policy decisions of an integrated assessment model, this work provides a foundation for linking these models in a robust and flexible framework capable of examining two-way interactions between human and earth system processes.

  7. Consideration of land use change-induced surface albedo effects in

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    life-cycle analysis of biofuels | Argonne National Laboratory Consideration of land use change-induced surface albedo effects in life-cycle analysis of biofuels Title Consideration of land use change-induced surface albedo effects in life-cycle analysis of biofuels Publication Type Journal Article Year of Publication 2016 Authors Cai, H, Wang, J, Wang, MQ, Qin, Z, Dunn, JB Journal Energy and Environmental Science Date Published 08/2016 Abstract Land use change (LUC)-induced surface albedo

  8. Integrated Assessment Modeling of Carbon Sequestration and Land Use Emissions Using Detailed Model Results and Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dr. Atul Jain

    2005-04-17

    This report outlines the progress on the development and application of Integrated Assessment Modeling of Carbon Sequestrations and Land Use Emissions supported by the DOE Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER), U.S. Department of Energy, Grant No. DOE-DE-FG02-01ER63069. The overall objective of this collaborative project between the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was to unite the latest advances in carbon cycle research with scientifically based models and policy-related integrated assessment tools that incorporate computationally efficient representations of the latest knowledge concerning science and emission trajectories, and their policy implications. As part of this research we accomplished the following tasks that we originally proposed: (1) In coordination with LLNL and ORNL, we enhanced the Integrated Science Assessment Model's (ISAM) parametric representation of the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycles that better represent spatial and seasonal variations, which are important to study the mechanisms that influence carbon sequestration in the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems; (2) Using the MiniCAM modeling capability, we revised the SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios; IPCC, 2000) land use emission scenarios; and (3) On the application front, the enhanced version of ISAM modeling capability is applied to understand how short- and long-term natural carbon fluxes, carbon sequestration, and human emissions contribute to the net global emissions (concentrations) trajectories required to reach various concentration (emission) targets. Under this grant, 21 research publications were produced. In addition, this grant supported a number of graduate and undergraduate students whose fundamental research was to learn a disciplinary field in climate change (e.g., ecological dynamics and

  9. Final Report for ''SOURCES AND SINKS OF CARBON FROM LAND-USE CHANGE AND MANAGEMENT: A GLOBAL SYNTHESIS'' Project Period September 15, 2001--September 14, 2003

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houghton, R.A.

    2003-12-12

    Land management and land-use change can either release carbon (as CO{sub 2}) to the atmosphere, for example when forests are converted to agricultural lands, or withdraw carbon from the atmosphere as forests grow on cleared lands or as management practices sequester carbon in soil. The purpose of this work was to calculate the annual sources and sinks of carbon from changes in land use and management, globally and for nine world regions, over the period 1850 to 2000. The approach had three components. First, rates of land-use change were reconstructed from historical information on the areas of croplands, pastures, forests, and other lands and from data on wood harvests. In most regions, land-use change included the conversion of natural ecosystems to cultivated lands and pastures, including shifting cultivation, harvest of wood (for timber and fuel), and the establishment of tree plantations. In the U.S., woody encroachment and woodland thickening as a result of fire suppression were also included. Second, the amount of carbon per hectare in vegetation and soils and changes in that carbon as a result of land-use change were determined from data obtained in the ecological and forestry literature. These data on land-use change and carbon stocks were then used in a bookkeeping model (third component) to calculate regional and global changes in terrestrial carbon. The results indicate that for the period 1850-2000 the net flux of carbon from changes in land use was 156 PgC. For comparison, emissions of carbon from combustion of fossil fuels were approximately 280 PgC during the same interval. Annual emissions from land-use change exceeded emissions from fossil fuels before about 1920. Somewhat more that half (60%) of the long-term flux was from the tropics. Average annual fluxes during the 1980s and 1990s were 2.0 and 2.2 ({+-}0.8) PgC yr{sup -1} (30-40% of fossil fuel emissions), respectively. In these decades, the global sources of carbon were almost entirely from

  10. Land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions from corn and cellulosic...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions from corn and cellulosic ethanol July 16, ... Estimates of LUC GHG emissions focus mainly on corn ethanol and vary widely. Increasing ...

  11. From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Di Vittorio, Alan; Chini, Louise M.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Truesdale, John E.; Craig, Anthony P.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Hurtt, George; Thornton, Peter E.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-11-27

    Climate projections depend on scenarios of fossil fuel emissions and land use change, and the IPCC AR5 parallel process assumes consistent climate scenarios across Integrated Assessment and Earth System Models (IAMs and ESMs). To facilitate consistency, CMIP5 used a novel land use harmonization to provide ESMs with seamless, 1500-2100 land use trajectories generated by historical data and four IAMs. However, we have identified and partially addressed a major gap in the CMIP5 land coupling design. The CMIP5 Community ESM (CESM) global afforestation is only 22% of RCP4.5 afforestation from 2005 to 2100. Likewise, only 17% of the Global Change Assessment Models (GCAMs) 2040 RCP4.5 afforestation signal, and none of the pasture loss, were transmitted to CESM within a newly integrated model. This is a critical problem because afforestation is necessary for achieving the RCP4.5 climate stabilization. We attempted to rectify this problem by modifying only the ESM component of the integrated model, enabling CESM to simulate 66% of GCAMs afforestation in 2040, and 94% of GCAMs pasture loss as grassland and shrubland losses. This additional afforestation increases vegetation carbon gain by 19 PgC and decreases atmospheric CO2 gain by 8 ppmv from 2005 to 2040, implying different climate scenarios between CMIP5 GCAM and CESM. Similar inconsistencies likely exist in other CMIP5 model results, primarily because land cover information is not shared between models, with possible contributions from afforestation exceeding model-specific, potentially viable forest area. Further work to harmonize land cover among models will be required to adequately rectify this problem.

  12. Estimating a model discrepancy term for the Community Land Model...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ... month - The final fitted polynomial model has 10% - 20% errors - not good enough * Regression kriging - Used quadratic as a meantrend model and stationary Gaussian Process model ...

  13. Through a mirror, darkly-using climate change information for land management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Slater, T.F.

    1995-09-01

    The writer Bruce Hutchison uses the phrase: {open_quotes}The land, always the land!{close_quotes} The land is a common denominator linking the ages. But the {open_quotes}land{close_quotes} in the broadest sense is a vast collection of natural components, events, and interconnections. It is complex, only partially understood, and ever-changing. Our ultimate challenge at this time is to SEE, as we look into the mirror of time. Regardless of the shadows of uncertainty, we must peer hopefully into the mirror to make meaningful connections between the past, the present, and the future. This is not easy. Traditional resource planning has been based on the short-term focus of today and tomorrow. That focus is beginning to change through a concept now popularized as {open_quotes}ecosystem management.{close_quotes} BLM recently has begun applying this concept in the formulation of the Eastern Utah Ecosystem Planning Initiative that is intended to give expanded dimensions to the planning and management of public land resources. These dimensions will give more attention to spatial (regional) and temporal (long-term) expectations. This paper investigates the theoretical and practical problems in linking the past to the future, using as the example the new planning initiative for Eastern Utah. It provides insights which may be applied to land-use planning and management, through new perspectives regarding changing climate and ecosystem patterns.

  14. Development of a land ice core for the Model for Prediction Across...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    a land ice core for the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Development of a land ice core for the Model for Prediction Across Scales ...

  15. Land-ice modeling for sea-level prediction (Technical Report...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Technical Report: Land-ice modeling for sea-level prediction Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Land-ice modeling for sea-level prediction Authors: Lipscomb, William H 1 ...

  16. Energy and greenhouse gas emission effects of corn and cellulosic ethanol with technology improvements and land use changes.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, M.; Han, J.; Haq, Z; Tyner, .W.; Wu, M.; Elgowainy, A.

    2011-05-01

    Use of ethanol as a transportation fuel in the United States has grown from 76 dam{sup 3} in 1980 to over 40.1 hm{sup 3} in 2009 - and virtually all of it has been produced from corn. It has been debated whether using corn ethanol results in any energy and greenhouse gas benefits. This issue has been especially critical in the past several years, when indirect effects, such as indirect land use changes, associated with U.S. corn ethanol production are considered in evaluation. In the past three years, modeling of direct and indirect land use changes related to the production of corn ethanol has advanced significantly. Meanwhile, technology improvements in key stages of the ethanol life cycle (such as corn farming and ethanol production) have been made. With updated simulation results of direct and indirect land use changes and observed technology improvements in the past several years, we conducted a life-cycle analysis of ethanol and show that at present and in the near future, using corn ethanol reduces greenhouse gas emission by more than 20%, relative to those of petroleum gasoline. On the other hand, second-generation ethanol could achieve much higher reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. In a broader sense, sound evaluation of U.S. biofuel policies should account for both unanticipated consequences and technology potentials. We maintain that the usefulness of such evaluations is to provide insight into how to prevent unanticipated consequences and how to promote efficient technologies with policy intervention.

  17. From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ... Sponsoring Org: USDOE Country of Publication: United States Language: English Subject: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES earth system modeling; climate change; land use Word Cloud More ...

  18. Probabilistic Modeling of Settlement Risk at Land Disposal Facilities - 12304

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Foye, Kevin C.; Soong, Te-Yang

    2012-07-01

    The long-term reliability of land disposal facility final cover systems - and therefore the overall waste containment - depends on the distortions imposed on these systems by differential settlement/subsidence. The evaluation of differential settlement is challenging because of the heterogeneity of the waste mass (caused by inconsistent compaction, void space distribution, debris-soil mix ratio, waste material stiffness, time-dependent primary compression of the fine-grained soil matrix, long-term creep settlement of the soil matrix and the debris, etc.) at most land disposal facilities. Deterministic approaches to long-term final cover settlement prediction are not able to capture the spatial variability in the waste mass and sub-grade properties which control differential settlement. An alternative, probabilistic solution is to use random fields to model the waste and sub-grade properties. The modeling effort informs the design, construction, operation, and maintenance of land disposal facilities. A probabilistic method to establish design criteria for waste placement and compaction is introduced using the model. Random fields are ideally suited to problems of differential settlement modeling of highly heterogeneous foundations, such as waste. Random fields model the seemingly random spatial distribution of a design parameter, such as compressibility. When used for design, the use of these models prompts the need for probabilistic design criteria. It also allows for a statistical approach to waste placement acceptance criteria. An example design evaluation was performed, illustrating the use of the probabilistic differential settlement simulation methodology to assemble a design guidance chart. The purpose of this design evaluation is to enable the designer to select optimal initial combinations of design slopes and quality control acceptance criteria that yield an acceptable proportion of post-settlement slopes meeting some design minimum. For this specific

  19. Land cover change and remote sensing: Examples of quantifying spatiotemporal dynamics in tropical forests

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Krummel, J.R.; Su, Haiping; Fox, J.; Yarnasan, S.; Ekasingh, M.

    1995-06-01

    Research on human impacts or natural processes that operate over broad geographic areas must explicitly address issues of scale and spatial heterogeneity. While the tropical forests of Southeast Asia and Mexico have been occupied and used to meet human needs for thousands of years, traditional forest management systems are currently being transformed by rapid and far-reaching demographic, political, economic, and environmental changes. The dynamics of population growth, migration into the remaining frontiers, and responses to national and international market forces result in a demand for land to produce food and fiber. These results illustrate some of the mechanisms that drive current land use changes, especially in the tropical forest frontiers. By linking the outcome of individual land use decisions and measures of landscape fragmentation and change, the aggregated results shows the hierarchy of temporal and spatial events that in summation result in global changes to the most complex and sensitive biome -- tropical forests. By quantifying the spatial and temporal patterns of tropical forest change, researchers can assist policy makers by showing how landscape systems in these tropical forests are controlled by physical, biological, social, and economic parameters.

  20. Simplified air change effectiveness modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rock, B.A.; Anderson, R.; Brandemuehl, M.J.

    1992-06-01

    This paper describes recent progress in developing practical air change effectiveness modeling techniques for the design and analysis of air diffusion in occupied rooms. The ultimate goal of this continuing work is to develop a simple and reliable method for determining heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system compliance with ventilation standards. In the current work, simplified two-region models of rooms are used with six occupancy patterns to find the air change effectiveness. A new measure, the apparent ACH effectiveness, yields the relative ventilation performance of an air diffusion system. This measure can be used for the prediction or evaluation of outside air delivery to the occupants. The required outside air can be greater or less than that specified by ventilation standards such as ASHRAE Standard 62-89.

  1. Bayesian calibration of the Community Land Model using surrogates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Swiler, Laura Painton

    2014-02-01

    We present results from the Bayesian calibration of hydrological parameters of the Community Land Model (CLM), which is often used in climate simulations and Earth system models. A statistical inverse problem is formulated for three hydrological parameters, conditional on observations of latent heat surface fluxes over 48 months. Our calibration method uses polynomial and Gaussian process surrogates of the CLM, and solves the parameter estimation problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. Posterior probability densities for the parameters are developed for two sites with different soil and vegetation covers. Our method also allows us to examine the structural error in CLM under two error models. We find that surrogate models can be created for CLM in most cases. The posterior distributions are more predictive than the default parameter values in CLM. Climatologically averaging the observations does not modify the parameters' distributions significantly. The structural error model reveals a correlation time-scale which can be used to identify the physical process that could be contributing to it. While the calibrated CLM has a higher predictive skill, the calibration is under-dispersive.

  2. Bayesian Calibration of the Community Land Model using Surrogates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Sargsyan, K.; Swiler, Laura P.

    2015-01-01

    We present results from the Bayesian calibration of hydrological parameters of the Community Land Model (CLM), which is often used in climate simulations and Earth system models. A statistical inverse problem is formulated for three hydrological parameters, conditioned on observations of latent heat surface fluxes over 48 months. Our calibration method uses polynomial and Gaussian process surrogates of the CLM, and solves the parameter estimation problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. Posterior probability densities for the parameters are developed for two sites with different soil and vegetation covers. Our method also allows us to examine the structural error in CLM under two error models. We find that accurate surrogate models can be created for CLM in most cases. The posterior distributions lead to better prediction than the default parameter values in CLM. Climatologically averaging the observations does not modify the parameters distributions significantly. The structural error model reveals a correlation time-scale which can potentially be used to identify physical processes that could be contributing to it. While the calibrated CLM has a higher predictive skill, the calibration is under-dispersive.

  3. Progress in coupling Land Ice and Ocean Models in the MPAS Framework...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Resource Relation: Conference: Community Earth System Model Land Ice Working Group Meeting ... Sponsoring Org: DOELANL Country of Publication: United States Language: English Subject: ...

  4. An update on modeling land-ice/ocean interactions in CESM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Asay-davis, Xylar

    2011-01-24

    This talk is an update on ongoing land-ice/ocean coupling work within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The coupling method is designed to allow simulation of a fully dynamic ice/ocean interface, while requiring minimal modification to the existing ocean model (the Parallel Ocean Program, POP). The method makes use of an immersed boundary method (IBM) to represent the geometry of the ice-ocean interface without requiring that the computational grid be modified in time. We show many of the remaining development challenges that need to be addressed in order to perform global, century long climate runs with fully coupled ocean and ice sheet models. These challenges include moving to a new grid where the computational pole is no longer at the true south pole and several changes to the coupler (the software tool used to communicate between model components) to allow the boundary between land and ocean to vary in time. We discuss benefits for ice/ocean coupling that would be gained from longer-term ocean model development to allow for natural salt fluxes (which conserve both water and salt mass, rather than water volume).

  5. A Physically Based Runoff Routing Model for Land Surface and Earth System Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Hongyi; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Wu, Huan; Huang, Maoyi; Ke, Yinghai; Coleman, Andre M.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-06-13

    A new physically based runoff routing model, called the Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART), has been developed to be applicable across local, regional, and global scales. Within each spatial unit, surface runoff is first routed across hillslopes and then discharged along with subsurface runoff into a tributary subnetwork before entering the main channel. The spatial units are thus linked via routing through the main channel network, which is constructed in a scale-consistent way across different spatial resolutions. All model parameters are physically based, and only a small subset requires calibration.MOSART has been applied to the Columbia River basin at 1/ 168, 1/ 88, 1/ 48, and 1/ 28 spatial resolutions and was evaluated using naturalized or observed streamflow at a number of gauge stations. MOSART is compared to two other routing models widely used with land surface models, the River Transport Model (RTM) in the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Lohmann routing model, included as a postprocessor in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model package, yielding consistent performance at multiple resolutions. MOSART is further evaluated using the channel velocities derived from field measurements or a hydraulic model at various locations and is shown to be capable of producing the seasonal variation and magnitude of channel velocities reasonably well at different resolutions. Moreover, the impacts of spatial resolution on model simulations are systematically examined at local and regional scales. Finally, the limitations ofMOSART and future directions for improvements are discussed.

  6. Development of a land ice core for the Model for Prediction Across...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    for the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Development of a land ice core for the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) No ...

  7. Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers, impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Popp, Alexander; Rose, Steven K.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Dietrich, Jan P.; Wise, Marshall A.; Stehfest, Eike; Humpenoder, Florian; Kyle, G. Page; Van Vliet, Jasper; Bauer, Nico; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Klein, David; Kriegler, Elmar

    2014-04-01

    This study is a model comparison assessing the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system and the interaction with other land use based mitigation options in the context of the EMF 27 project. We compare and evaluate results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE). All three models project that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues are a potentially important and cost-effective component of the energy system. But bioenergy deployment levels and feedstock composition vary notably across models as do the implications for land-use and greenhouse gas emissions and the interaction with other land use based mitigation measures. Despite numerous model differences, we identify a few that are likely contributing to differences in land-use and emissions attributable to energy crop deployment.

  8. Climate Models from the Joint Global Change Research Institute

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Staff at the Joint Institute develop and use models to simulate the economic and physical impacts of global change policy options. The GCAM, for example, gives analysts insight into how regional and national economies might respond to climate change mitigation policies including carbon taxes, carbon trading, and accelerated deployment of energy technology. Three available models are Phoenix, GCAM, and EPIC. Phoenix is a global, dynamic recursive, computable general equilibrium model that is solved in five-year time steps from 2005 through 2100 and divides the world into twenty-four regions. Each region includes twenty-six industrial sectors. Particular attention is paid to energy production in Phoenix. There are nine electricity-generating technologies (coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal) and four additional energy commodities: crude oil, refined oil products, coal, and natural gas. Phoenix is designed to answer economic questions related to international climate and energy policy and international trade. Phoenix replaces the Second Generation Model (SGM) that was formerly used for general equilibrium analysis at JGCRI. GCAM is the Global Change Assessment Model, a partial equilibrium model of the world with 14 regions. GCAM operates in 5 year time steps from 1990 to 2095 and is designed to examine long-term changes in the coupled energy, agriculture/land-use, and climate system. GCAM includes a 151-region agriculture land-use module and a reduced form carbon cycle and climate module in addition to its incorporation of demographics, resources, energy production and consumption. The model has been used extensively in a number of assessment and modeling activities such as the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and IPCC assessment reports. GCAM is now freely available as a community model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) Model

  9. Representing northern peatland microtopography and hydrology within the Community Land Model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter E.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Hanson, Paul J.; Mao, Jiafu; Sebestyen, Stephen D.; Griffiths, Natalie A.; Bisht, Gautam

    2015-11-12

    Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth for a vegetated wetland, independent of prescribed regional water tables. We introduce here a new configuration of the Community Land Model (CLM) which includes a fully prognostic water table calculation for a vegetated peatland. Our structural and process changes to CLM focus on modifications needed to representmore » the hydrologic cycle of bogs environment with perched water tables, as well as distinct hydrologic dynamics and vegetation communities of the raised hummock and sunken hollow microtopography characteristic of peatland bogs. The modified model was parameterized and independently evaluated against observations from an ombrotrophic raised-dome bog in northern Minnesota (S1-Bog), the site for the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change experiment (SPRUCE). Simulated water table levels compared well with site-level observations. The new model predicts hydrologic changes in response to planned warming at the SPRUCE site. At present, standing water is commonly observed in bog hollows after large rainfall events during the growing season, but simulations suggest a sharp decrease in water table levels due to increased evapotranspiration under the most extreme warming level, nearly eliminating the occurrence of standing water in the growing season. Simulated soil energy balance was strongly influenced by reduced winter snowpack under warming simulations, with the warming influence on soil temperature partly offset by the loss of insulating snowpack in early and late winter. Furthermore, the new model provides improved predictive capacity for seasonal hydrological

  10. Representing northern peatland microtopography and hydrology within the Community Land Model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Shi, X.; Thornton, P. E.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Hanson, P. J.; Mao, J.; Sebestyen, S. D.; Griffiths, N. A.; Bisht, G.

    2015-02-20

    Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth for a vegetated wetland, independent of prescribed regional water tables. We introduce here a new configuration of the Community Land Model (CLM) which includes a fully prognostic water table calculation for a vegetated peatland. Our structural and process changes to CLM focus on modifications needed to representmore » the hydrologic cycle of bogs environment with perched water tables, as well as distinct hydrologic dynamics and vegetation communities of the raised hummock and sunken hollow microtopography characteristic of peatland bogs. The modified model was parameterized and independently evaluated against observations from an ombrotrophic raised-dome bog in northern Minnesota (S1-Bog), the site for the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change experiment (SPRUCE). Simulated water table levels compared well with site-level observations. The new model predicts significant hydrologic changes in response to planned warming at the SPRUCE site. At present, standing water is commonly observed in bog hollows after large rainfall events during the growing season, but simulations suggest a sharp decrease in water table levels due to increased evapotranspiration under the most extreme warming level, nearly eliminating the occurrence of standing water in the growing season. Simulated soil energy balance was strongly influenced by reduced winter snowpack under warming simulations, with the warming influence on soil temperature partly offset by the loss of insulating snowpack in early and late winter. The new model provides improved predictive capacity for seasonal hydrological

  11. Representing northern peatland microtopography and hydrology within the Community Land Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shi, X.; Thornton, P. E.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Hanson, P. J.; Mao, J.; Sebestyen, S. D.; Griffiths, N. A.; Bisht, G.

    2015-02-20

    Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth for a vegetated wetland, independent of prescribed regional water tables. We introduce here a new configuration of the Community Land Model (CLM) which includes a fully prognostic water table calculation for a vegetated peatland. Our structural and process changes to CLM focus on modifications needed to represent the hydrologic cycle of bogs environment with perched water tables, as well as distinct hydrologic dynamics and vegetation communities of the raised hummock and sunken hollow microtopography characteristic of peatland bogs. The modified model was parameterized and independently evaluated against observations from an ombrotrophic raised-dome bog in northern Minnesota (S1-Bog), the site for the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change experiment (SPRUCE). Simulated water table levels compared well with site-level observations. The new model predicts significant hydrologic changes in response to planned warming at the SPRUCE site. At present, standing water is commonly observed in bog hollows after large rainfall events during the growing season, but simulations suggest a sharp decrease in water table levels due to increased evapotranspiration under the most extreme warming level, nearly eliminating the occurrence of standing water in the growing season. Simulated soil energy balance was strongly influenced by reduced winter snowpack under warming simulations, with the warming influence on soil temperature partly offset by the loss of insulating snowpack in early and late winter. The new model provides improved predictive capacity for seasonal hydrological dynamics

  12. Representing northern peatland microtopography and hydrology within the Community Land Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter E.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Hanson, Paul J.; Mao, Jiafu; Sebestyen, Stephen D.; Griffiths, Natalie A.; Bisht, Gautam

    2015-11-12

    Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth for a vegetated wetland, independent of prescribed regional water tables. We introduce here a new configuration of the Community Land Model (CLM) which includes a fully prognostic water table calculation for a vegetated peatland. Our structural and process changes to CLM focus on modifications needed to represent the hydrologic cycle of bogs environment with perched water tables, as well as distinct hydrologic dynamics and vegetation communities of the raised hummock and sunken hollow microtopography characteristic of peatland bogs. The modified model was parameterized and independently evaluated against observations from an ombrotrophic raised-dome bog in northern Minnesota (S1-Bog), the site for the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change experiment (SPRUCE). Simulated water table levels compared well with site-level observations. The new model predicts hydrologic changes in response to planned warming at the SPRUCE site. At present, standing water is commonly observed in bog hollows after large rainfall events during the growing season, but simulations suggest a sharp decrease in water table levels due to increased evapotranspiration under the most extreme warming level, nearly eliminating the occurrence of standing water in the growing season. Simulated soil energy balance was strongly influenced by reduced winter snowpack under warming simulations, with the warming influence on soil temperature partly offset by the loss of insulating snowpack in early and late winter. Furthermore, the new model provides improved predictive capacity for seasonal hydrological dynamics

  13. A spatially distributed model for the assessment of land use impacts on stream temperature in small urban watersheds

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sun, Ning; Yearsley, John; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2015-05-15

    Stream temperatures in urban watersheds are influenced to a high degree by anthropogenic impacts related to changes in landscape, stream channel morphology, and climate. These impacts can occur at small time and length scales, hence require analytical tools that consider the influence of the hydrologic regime, energy fluxes, topography, channel morphology, and near-stream vegetation distribution. Here we describe a modeling system that integrates the Distributed Hydrologic Soil Vegetation Model, DHSVM, with the semi-Lagrangian stream temperature model RBM, which has the capability to simulate the hydrology and water temperature of urban streams at high time and space resolutions, as well as a representation of the effects of riparian shading on stream energetics. We demonstrate the modeling system through application to the Mercer Creek watershed, a small urban catchment near Bellevue, Washington. The results suggest that the model is able both to produce realistic streamflow predictions at fine temporal and spatial scales, and to provide spatially distributed water temperature predictions that are consistent with observations throughout a complex stream network. We use the modeling construct to characterize impacts of land use change and near-stream vegetation change on stream temperature throughout the Mercer Creek system. We then explore the sensitivity of stream temperature to land use changes and modifications in vegetation along the riparian corridor.

  14. Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land-Use Changes: 1850 to 1990

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houghton, R.A.

    2001-02-22

    The database documented in this numeric data package, a revision to a database originally published by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) in 1995, consists of annual estimates, from 1850 through 1990, of the net flux of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere resulting from deliberate changes in land cover and land use, especially forest clearing for agriculture and the harvest of wood for wood products or energy. The data are provided on a year-by-year basis for nine regions (North America, South and Central America, Europe, North Africa and the Middle East, Tropical Africa, the Former Soviet Union, China, South and Southeast Asia, and the Pacific Developed Region) and the globe. Some data begin earlier than 1850 (e.g., for six regions, areas of different ecosystems are provided for the year 1700) or extend beyond 1990 (e.g., fuelwood harvest in South and Southeast Asia, by forest type, is provided through 1995). The global net flux during the period 1850 to 1990 was 124 Pg of carbon (1 petagram = 10{sup 15} grams). During this period, the greatest regional flux was from South and Southeast Asia (39 Pg of carbon), while the smallest regional flux was from North Africa and the Middle East (3 Pg of carbon). For the year 1990, the global total net flux was estimated to be 2.1 Pg of carbon.

  15. Progress on MPAS Land Ice Model Development (Conference) | SciTech...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Progress on MPAS Land Ice Model Development You are accessing a document from the Department of Energy's (DOE) SciTech Connect. This site is a product of DOE's Office of ...

  16. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP): A Model-Data Comparison System for Evaluation of Coupled Biosphere-Atmosphere Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, Jim; Thornton, Peter E; Mahowald, Natalie; Bonan, Gordon; Running, Steven; Fung, Inez

    2009-01-01

    The need to capture important climate feebacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in new efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, now often referred to as Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results, suggesting that a more rigorous set of offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are warranted. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) provides a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). C-LAMP provides feedback to the modeling community regarding model improvements and to the measurement community by suggesting new observational campaigns. C-LAMP Experiment 1 consists of a set of uncoupled simulations of terrestrial carbon models specifically designed to examine the ability of the models to reproduce surface carbon and energy fluxes at multiple sites and to exhibit the influence of climate variability, prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), nitrogen (N) deposition, and land cover change on projections of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 20th century. Experiment 2 consists of partially coupled simulations of the terrestrial carbon model with an active atmosphere model exchanging energy and moisture fluxes. In all experiments, atmospheric CO{sub 2} follows the prescribed historical trajectory from C{sup 4}MIP. In Experiment 2, the atmosphere model is forced with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and corresponding sea ice concentrations from the Hadley Centre; prescribed CO{sub 2} is radiatively active; and land, fossil fuel, and ocean CO{sub 2} fluxes are advected by the model. Both sets of experiments

  17. An international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Randerson, James T [ORNL; Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Bonan, Gordon [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Erickson III, David J [ORNL; Fung, Inez [University of California, Berkeley

    2009-12-01

    The need to capture important climate feedbacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, called Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). This work suggests that a more rigorous set of global offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are needed. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) was designed to meet this need by providing a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). Recently, a similar effort in Europe, called the International Land Model Benchmark (ILAMB) Project, was begun to assess the performance of European land surface models. These two projects will now serve as prototypes for a proposed international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for those models participating in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Initially used for model validation for terrestrial biogeochemistry models in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM), C-LAMP incorporates a simulation protocol for both offline and partially coupled simulations using a prescribed historical trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Models are confronted with data through comparisons against AmeriFlux site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA Globalview flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) site measurements. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the CLM version 3 in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): the CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon

  18. Modeling the Behaviour of an Advanced Material Based Smart Landing Gear System for Aerospace Vehicles

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Varughese, Byji; Dayananda, G. N.; Rao, M. Subba

    2008-07-29

    The last two decades have seen a substantial rise in the use of advanced materials such as polymer composites for aerospace structural applications. In more recent years there has been a concerted effort to integrate materials, which mimic biological functions (referred to as smart materials) with polymeric composites. Prominent among smart materials are shape memory alloys, which possess both actuating and sensory functions that can be realized simultaneously. The proper characterization and modeling of advanced and smart materials holds the key to the design and development of efficient smart devices/systems. This paper focuses on the material characterization; modeling and validation of the model in relation to the development of a Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) based smart landing gear (with high energy dissipation features) for a semi rigid radio controlled airship (RC-blimp). The Super Elastic (SE) SMA element is configured in such a way that it is forced into a tensile mode of high elastic deformation. The smart landing gear comprises of a landing beam, an arch and a super elastic Nickel-Titanium (Ni-Ti) SMA element. The landing gear is primarily made of polymer carbon composites, which possess high specific stiffness and high specific strength compared to conventional materials, and are therefore ideally suited for the design and development of an efficient skid landing gear system with good energy dissipation characteristics. The development of the smart landing gear in relation to a conventional metal landing gear design is also dealt with.

  19. MODELING OF CHANGING ELECTRODE PROFILES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prentice, Geoffrey Allen

    1980-12-01

    A model for simulating the transient behavior of solid electrodes undergoing deposition or dissolution has been developed. The model accounts for ohmic drop, charge transfer overpotential, and mass transport limitations. The finite difference method, coupled with successive overrelaxation, was used as the basis of the solution technique. An algorithm was devised to overcome the computational instabilities associated with the calculations of the secondary and tertiary current distributions. Simulations were performed on several model electrode profiles: the sinusoid, the rounded corner, and the notch. Quantitative copper deposition data were obtained in a contoured rotating cylinder system, Sinusoidal cross-sections, machined on stainless steel cylinders, were used as model geometries, Kinetic parameters for use in the simulation were determined from polarization curves obtained on copper rotating cylinders, These parameters, along with other physical property and geometric data, were incorporated in simulations of growing sinusoidal profiles. The copper distributions on the sinusoidal cross-sections were measured and found to compare favorably with the simulated results. At low Wagner numbers the formation of a slight depression at the profile peak was predicted by the simulation and observed on the profile. At higher Wagner numbers, the simulated and experimental results showed that the formation of a depression was suppressed. This phenomenon was shown to result from the competition between ohmic drop and electrode curvature.

  20. Downscaling Global Land Cover Projections from an Integrated Assessment Model for Use in Regional Analyses: Results and Evaluation for the US from 2005 to 2095

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    West, Tristram O.; Le Page, Yannick LB; Huang, Maoyi; Wolf, Julie; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-06-05

    Projections of land cover change generated from Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and other economic-based models can be applied for analyses of environmental impacts at subregional and landscape scales. For those IAM and economic models that project land use at the sub-continental or regional scale, these projections must be downscaled and spatially distributed prior to use in climate or ecosystem models. Downscaling efforts to date have been conducted at the national extent with relatively high spatial resolution (30m) and at the global extent with relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.5 degree).

  1. A Functional Test Platform for the Community Land Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Yang; Thornton, Peter E; King, Anthony Wayne; Steed, Chad A; Gu, Lianhong; Schuchart, Joseph

    2014-01-01

    A functional test platform is presented to create direct linkages between site measurements and the process-based ecosystem model within the Community Earth System Models (CESM). The platform consists of three major parts: 1) interactive user interfaces, 2) functional test model and 3) observational datasets. It provides much needed integration interfaces for both field experimentalists and ecosystem modelers to improve the model s representation of ecosystem processes within the CESM framework without large software overhead.

  2. Sensitivity of Global Terrestrial Gross Primary Production to Hydrologic States Simulated by the Community Land Model Using Two Runoff Parameterizations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lei, Huimin; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Yang, Dawen; Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Hayes, Daniel J.; Schwalm, C.; Wei, Yaxing; Liu, Shishi

    2014-09-01

    The terrestrial water and carbon cycles interact strongly at various spatio-temporal scales. To elucidate how hydrologic processes may influence carbon cycle processes, differences in terrestrial carbon cycle simulations induced by structural differences in two runoff generation schemes were investigated using the Community Land Model 4 (CLM4). Simulations were performed with runoff generation using the default TOPMODEL-based and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model approaches under the same experimental protocol. The comparisons showed that differences in the simulated gross primary production (GPP) are mainly attributed to differences in the simulated leaf area index (LAI) rather than soil moisture availability. More specifically, differences in runoff simulations can influence LAI through changes in soil moisture, soil temperature, and their seasonality that affect the onset of the growing season and the subsequent dynamic feedbacks between terrestrial water, energy, and carbon cycles. As a result of a relative difference of 36% in global mean total runoff between the two models and subsequent changes in soil moisture, soil temperature, and LAI, the simulated global mean GPP differs by 20.4%. However, the relative difference in the global mean net ecosystem exchange between the two models is small (2.1%) due to competing effects on total mean ecosystem respiration and other fluxes, although large regional differences can still be found. Our study highlights the significant interactions among the water, energy, and carbon cycles and the need for reducing uncertainty in the hydrologic parameterization of land surface models to better constrain carbon cycle modeling.

  3. A Subbasin-based framework to represent land surface processes in an Earth System Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tesfa, Teklu K.; Li, Hongyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Huang, Maoyi; Ke, Yinghai; Sun, Yu; Liu, Ying

    2014-05-20

    Realistically representing spatial heterogeneity and lateral land surface processes within and between modeling units in earth system models is important because of their implications to surface energy and water exchange. The traditional approach of using regular grids as computational units in land surface models and earth system models may lead to inadequate representation of lateral movements of water, energy and carbon fluxes, especially when the grid resolution increases. Here a new subbasin-based framework is introduced in the Community Land Model (CLM), which is the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Local processes are represented assuming each subbasin as a grid cell on a pseudo grid matrix with no significant modifications to the existing CLM modeling structure. Lateral routing of water within and between subbasins is simulated with the subbasin version of a recently-developed physically based routing model, Model for Scale Adaptive River Routing (MOSART). As an illustration, this new framework is implemented in the topographically diverse region of the U.S. Pacific Northwest. The modeling units (subbasins) are delineated from high-resolution Digital Elevation Model while atmospheric forcing and surface parameters are remapped from the corresponding high resolution datasets. The impacts of this representation on simulating hydrologic processes are explored by comparing it with the default (grid-based) CLM representation. In addition, the effects of DEM resolution on parameterizing topography and the subsequent effects on runoff processes are investigated. Limited model evaluation and comparison showed that small difference between the averaged forcing can lead to more significant difference in the simulated runoff and streamflow because of nonlinear horizontal processes. Topographic indices derived from high resolution DEM may not improve the overall water balance, but affect the partitioning between surface and subsurface runoff

  4. An integrated computer modeling environment for regional land use, air quality, and transportation planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanley, C.J.; Marshall, N.L.

    1997-04-01

    The Land Use, Air Quality, and Transportation Integrated Modeling Environment (LATIME) represents an integrated approach to computer modeling and simulation of land use allocation, travel demand, and mobile source emissions for the Albuquerque, New Mexico, area. This environment provides predictive capability combined with a graphical and geographical interface. The graphical interface shows the causal relationships between data and policy scenarios and supports alternative model formulations. Scenarios are launched from within a Geographic Information System (GIS), and data produced by each model component at each time step within a simulation is stored in the GIS. A menu-driven query system is utilized to review link-based results and regional and area-wide results. These results can also be compared across time or between alternative land use scenarios. Using this environment, policies can be developed and implemented based on comparative analysis, rather than on single-step future projections. 16 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  5. A technical review of urban land use - transportation models as tools for evaluating vehicle travel reduction strategies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Southworth, F.

    1995-07-01

    The continued growth of highway traffic in the United States has led to unwanted urban traffic congestion as well as to noticeable urban air quality problems. These problems include emissions covered by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) and 1991 Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA), as well as carbon dioxide and related {open_quotes}greenhouse gas{close_quotes} emissions. Urban travel also creates a major demand for imported oil. Therefore, for economic as well as environmental reasons, transportation planning agencies at both the state and metropolitan area level are focussing a good deal of attention on urban travel reduction policies. Much discussed policy instruments include those that encourage fewer trip starts, shorter trip distances, shifts to higher-occupancy vehicles or to nonvehicular modes, and shifts in the timing of trips from the more to the less congested periods of the day or week. Some analysts have concluded that in order to bring about sustainable reductions in urban traffic volumes, significant changes will be necessary in the way our households and businesses engage in daily travel. Such changes are likely to involve changes in the ways we organize and use traffic-generating and-attracting land within our urban areas. The purpose of this review is to evaluate the ability of current analytic methods and models to support both the evaluation and possibly the design of such vehicle travel reduction strategies, including those strategies involving the reorganization and use of urban land. The review is organized into three sections. Section 1 describes the nature of the problem we are trying to model, Section 2 reviews the state of the art in operational urban land use-transportation simulation models, and Section 3 provides a critical assessment of such models as useful urban transportation planning tools. A number of areas are identified where further model development or testing is required.

  6. EA-1779: Proposed Changes to the Sanitary Biosolids Land Application Program on the Oak Ridge Reservation, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This EA evaluates the environmental impacts of a proposal to amend (e.g., by changing setback requirements from surface water features and potential channels to groundwater) the Sanitary Biosolids Land Application Program at the Oak Ridge Reservation in Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

  7. World agriculture and climate change: Current modeling issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Darwin, R.

    1996-12-31

    Recent studies suggest that although global increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns during the next century will affect world agriculture, farmer adaptations are likely to prevent climate change from jeopardizing world food production. The costs and benefits of global climate change, however, are not equally distributed around the world. Agricultural production may increase in high latitude and alpine areas, but decrease in tropical and some other areas. Also, land use changes that accompany climate-induced shifts in cropland and permanent pasture are likely to raise additional social and environmental issues. Despite these advances, some important aspects of climate change have not been adequately simulated in global models. These include the effects that climate-induced changes in water resources are likely to have on agricultural production, the well-documented beneficial effects of higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide on plant growth and water use, and the cooling effects of tropospheric emissions of sulfur dioxide. In addition, past research generally relied on equilibrium climates based on a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Now, however, results from transient climate change experiments are available.

  8. Structural analysis of three global land models on carbon cycle simulations using a traceability framework

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Rafique, R.; Xia, J.; Hararuk, O.; Luo, Y.

    2014-06-27

    Modeled carbon (C) storage capacity is largely determined by the C residence time and net primary productivity (NPP). Extensive research has been done on NPP dynamics but the residence time and their relationships with C storage are much less studied. In this study, we implemented a traceability analysis to understand the modeled C storage and residence time in three land surface models: CSIRO's Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) with 9 C pools, Community Land Model (version 3.5) combined with Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CLM3.5-CASA) with 12 C pools and Community Land Model (version 4) (CLM4) with 26 C pools. The globally averagedmoreC storage and residence time was computed at both individual pool and total ecosystem levels. The spatial distribution of total ecosystem C storage and residence time differ greatly among the three models. The CABLE model showed a closer agreement with measured C storage and residence time in plant and soil pools than CLM3.5-CASA and CLM4. However, CLM3.5-CASA and CLM4 were close to each other in modeled C storage but not with measured data. CABLE stores more C in root whereas CLM3.5-CASA and CLM4 store more C in woody pools, partly due to differential NPP allocation in respective pools. The C residence time in individual C pools is greatly different among models, largely because of different transfer coefficient values among pools. CABLE had higher bulk residence time for soil C pools than the other two models. Overall, the traceability analysis used in this study can help fully characterizes the behavior of complex land models.less

  9. Development of a land ice core for the Model for Prediction Across Scales

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (MPAS) (Conference) | SciTech Connect Development of a land ice core for the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Development of a land ice core for the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) No abstract prepared. Authors: Hoffman, Matthew J [1] + Show Author Affiliations Los Alamos National Laboratory Publication Date: 2012-06-25 OSTI Identifier: 1044843 Report Number(s): LA-UR-12-22469 TRN: US201214%%525 DOE Contract Number: AC52-06NA25396

  10. Progress in coupling Land Ice and Ocean Models in the MPAS Framework

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Conference) | SciTech Connect Progress in coupling Land Ice and Ocean Models in the MPAS Framework Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Progress in coupling Land Ice and Ocean Models in the MPAS Framework Authors: Hoffman, Matthew J. [1] + Show Author Affiliations Los Alamos National Laboratory Publication Date: 2013-02-14 OSTI Identifier: 1063255 Report Number(s): LA-UR-13-20973 DOE Contract Number: AC52-06NA25396 Resource Type: Conference Resource Relation: Conference: Community

  11. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  12. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  13. Model simulation of climate changes in China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen Ming; Fu Congbin

    1997-12-31

    At present there are a large amount of work about influence of human activities and industrization on global climate changes. But due to the non-homogeneous boundary layer between earth and atmosphere there exist distinct difference of climate changes between different regions. China locates in the cast edge of Eurasian continent and border on the Pacific Ocean, it is the most famous monsoon region in the world. Climate of this region is very complex not only because of monsoon but also because its complicated topography. Researches about climate change in this region arc far from adequate. For this reason we use the Australia CSIRO 9-level truncated spectral model to nest with our regional climate model to simulate climate changes of China under conditions of double co2. Models arc running continuously for three years in both conditions of present co2 level and double co2 ppm.

  14. Uncertainty Analysis of Runoff Simulations and Parameter Identifiability in the Community Land Model Evidence from MOPEX Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huang, Maoyi; Hou, Zhangshuan; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ke, Yinghai; Liu, Ying; Fang, Zhufeng; Sun, Yu

    2013-12-01

    With the emergence of earth system models as important tools for understanding and predicting climate change and implications to mitigation and adaptation, it has become increasingly important to assess the fidelity of the land component within earth system models to capture realistic hydrological processes and their response to the changing climate and quantify the associated uncertainties. This study investigates the sensitivity of runoff simulations to major hydrologic parameters in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4) by integrating CLM4 with a stochastic exploratory sensitivity analysis framework at 20 selected watersheds from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) spanning a wide range of climate and site conditions. We found that for runoff simulations, the most significant parameters are those related to the subsurface runoff parameterizations. Soil texture related parameters and surface runoff parameters are of secondary significance. Moreover, climate and soil conditions play important roles in the parameter sensitivity. In general, site conditions within water-limited hydrologic regimes and with finer soil texture result in stronger sensitivity of output variables, such as runoff and its surface and subsurface components, to the input parameters in CLM4. This study demonstrated the feasibility of parameter inversion for CLM4 using streamflow observations to improve runoff simulations. By ranking the significance of the input parameters, we showed that the parameter set dimensionality could be reduced for CLM4 parameter calibration under different hydrologic and climatic regimes so that the inverse problem is less ill posed.

  15. Land-Based Wind Potential Changes in the Southeastern United States (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Roberts, J. O.

    2013-09-01

    Recent advancements in utility-scale wind turbine technology and pricing have vastly increased the potential land area where turbines can be deployed in the United States. This presentation quantifies the new developable land potential (e.g., capacity curves), visually identifies new areas for possible development (e.g., new wind resource maps), and begins to address deployment barriers to wind in new areas for modern and future turbine technology.

  16. Parameterizing atmosphere-land surface exchange for climate models with satellite data: A case study for the Southern Great Plains CART site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gao, W.

    1994-01-01

    High-resolution satellite data provide detailed, quantitative descriptions of land surface characteristics over large areas so that objective scale linkage becomes feasible. With the aid of satellite data, Sellers et al. and Wood and Lakshmi examined the linearity of processes scaled up from 30 m to 15 km. If the phenomenon is scale invariant, then the aggregated value of a function or flux is equivalent to the function computed from aggregated values of controlling variables. The linear relation may be realistic for limited land areas having no large surface contrasts to cause significant horizontal exchange. However, for areas with sharp surface contrasts, horizontal exchange and different dynamics in the atmospheric boundary may induce nonlinear interactions, such as at interfaces of land-water, forest-farm land, and irrigated crops-desert steppe. The linear approach, however, represents the simplest scenario, and is useful for developing an effective scheme for incorporating subgrid land surface processes into large-scale models. Our studies focus on coupling satellite data and ground measurements with a satellite-data-driven land surface model to parameterize surface fluxes for large-scale climate models. In this case study, we used surface spectral reflectance data from satellite remote sensing to characterize spatial and temporal changes in vegetation and associated surface parameters in an area of about 350 {times} 400 km covering the southern Great Plains (SGP) Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site of the US Department of Energy`s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program.

  17. Modeling the impact of agricultural land use and management on US carbon budgets

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Drewniak, B. A.; Mishra, U.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

    2014-09-22

    Cultivation of the terrestrial land surface can create either a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, depending on land management practices. The Community Land Model (CLM) provides a useful tool to explore how land use and management impact the soil carbon pool at regional to global scales. CLM was recently updated to include representation of managed lands growing maize, soybean, and spring wheat. In this study, CLM-Crop is used to investigate the impacts of various management practices, including fertilizer use and differential rates of crop residue removal, on the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage of croplands in the continental Unitedmore » States over approximately a 170 year period. Results indicate that total US SOC stocks have already lost over 8 Pg C (10%) due to land cultivation practices (e.g., fertilizer application, cultivar choice, and residue removal), compared to a land surface composed of native vegetation (i.e., grasslands). After long periods of cultivation, individual plots growing maize and soybean lost up to 65% of the carbon stored, compared to a grassland site. Crop residue management showed the greatest effect on soil carbon storage, with low and medium residue returns resulting in additional losses of 5% and 3.5%, respectively, in US carbon storage, while plots with high residue returns stored 2% more carbon. Nitrogenous fertilizer can alter the amount of soil carbon stocks significantly. Under current levels of crop residue return, not applying fertilizer resulted in a 5% loss of soil carbon. Our simulations indicate that disturbance through cultivation will always result in a loss of soil carbon, and management practices will have a large influence on the magnitude of SOC loss.« less

  18. Modeling the impact of agricultural land use and management on US carbon budgets

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Drewniak, B. A.; Mishra, U.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

    2015-04-09

    Cultivation of the terrestrial land surface can create either a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, depending on land management practices. The Community Land Model (CLM) provides a useful tool for exploring how land use and management impact the soil carbon pool at regional to global scales. CLM was recently updated to include representation of managed lands growing maize, soybean, and spring wheat. In this study, CLM-Crop is used to investigate the impacts of various management practices, including fertilizer use and differential rates of crop residue removal, on the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage of croplands in the continental Unitedmore » States over approximately a 170-year period. Results indicate that total US SOC stocks have already lost over 8 Pg C (10%) due to land cultivation practices (e.g., fertilizer application, cultivar choice, and residue removal), compared to a land surface composed of native vegetation (i.e., grasslands). After long periods of cultivation, individual subgrids (the equivalent of a field plot) growing maize and soybean lost up to 65% of the carbon stored compared to a grassland site. Crop residue management showed the greatest effect on soil carbon storage, with low and medium residue returns resulting in additional losses of 5 and 3.5%, respectively, in US carbon storage, while plots with high residue returns stored 2% more carbon. Nitrogenous fertilizer can alter the amount of soil carbon stocks significantly. Under current levels of crop residue return, not applying fertilizer resulted in a 5% loss of soil carbon. Our simulations indicate that disturbance through cultivation will always result in a loss of soil carbon, and management practices will have a large influence on the magnitude of SOC loss.« less

  19. Mitigation Options in Forestry, Land-Use, Change and Biomass Burning in Africa

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makundi, Willy R.

    1998-06-01

    Mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in land use sectors are describe in some detail. The paper highlights those options in the forestry sector, which are more relevant to different parts of Africa. It briefly outlines a bottom-up methodological framework for comprehensively assessing mitigation options in land use sectors. This method emphasizes the application of end-use demand projections to construct a baseline and mitigation scenarios and explicitly addresses the carbon storage potential on land and in wood products, as well as use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels. Cost-effectiveness indicators for ranking mitigation options are proposed, including those, which account for non-carbon monetary benefits such as those derived from forest products, as well as opportunity cost of pursuing specific mitigation option. The paper finally surveys the likely policies, barriers and incentives to implement such mitigation options in African countries .

  20. Climate change in the four corners and adjacent regions: Implications for environmental restoration and land-use planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Waugh, W.J.

    1995-09-01

    This document contains the workshop proceedings on Climate Change in the Four Corners and Adjacent Regions: Implications for Environmental Restoration and Land-Use Planning which took place September 12-14, 1994 in Grand Junction, Colorado. The workshop addressed three ways we can use paleoenvironmental data to gain a better understanding of climate change and its effects. (1) To serve as a retrospective baseline for interpreting past and projecting future climate-induced environmental change, (2) To differentiate the influences of climate and humans on past environmental change, and (3) To improve ecosystem management and restoration practices in the future. The papers presented at this workshop contained information on the following subjects: Paleoclimatic data from the Pleistocene and Holocene epochs, climate change and past cultures, and ecological resources and environmental restoration. Selected papers are indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  1. On approaches to analyze the sensitivity of simulated hydrologic fluxes to model parameters in the community land model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Bao, Jie; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying

    2015-12-04

    Here, effective sensitivity analysis approaches are needed to identify important parameters or factors and their uncertainties in complex Earth system models composed of multi-phase multi-component phenomena and multiple biogeophysical-biogeochemical processes. In this study, the impacts of 10 hydrologic parameters in the Community Land Model on simulations of runoff and latent heat flux are evaluated using data from a watershed. Different metrics, including residual statistics, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, and log mean square error, are used as alternative measures of the deviations between the simulated and field observed values. Four sensitivity analysis (SA) approaches, including analysis of variance based on the generalizedmore » linear model, generalized cross validation based on the multivariate adaptive regression splines model, standardized regression coefficients based on a linear regression model, and analysis of variance based on support vector machine, are investigated. Results suggest that these approaches show consistent measurement of the impacts of major hydrologic parameters on response variables, but with differences in the relative contributions, particularly for the secondary parameters. The convergence behaviors of the SA with respect to the number of sampling points are also examined with different combinations of input parameter sets and output response variables and their alternative metrics. This study helps identify the optimal SA approach, provides guidance for the calibration of the Community Land Model parameters to improve the model simulations of land surface fluxes, and approximates the magnitudes to be adjusted in the parameter values during parametric model optimization.« less

  2. On approaches to analyze the sensitivity of simulated hydrologic fluxes to model parameters in the community land model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bao, Jie; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying

    2015-12-04

    Here, effective sensitivity analysis approaches are needed to identify important parameters or factors and their uncertainties in complex Earth system models composed of multi-phase multi-component phenomena and multiple biogeophysical-biogeochemical processes. In this study, the impacts of 10 hydrologic parameters in the Community Land Model on simulations of runoff and latent heat flux are evaluated using data from a watershed. Different metrics, including residual statistics, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, and log mean square error, are used as alternative measures of the deviations between the simulated and field observed values. Four sensitivity analysis (SA) approaches, including analysis of variance based on the generalized linear model, generalized cross validation based on the multivariate adaptive regression splines model, standardized regression coefficients based on a linear regression model, and analysis of variance based on support vector machine, are investigated. Results suggest that these approaches show consistent measurement of the impacts of major hydrologic parameters on response variables, but with differences in the relative contributions, particularly for the secondary parameters. The convergence behaviors of the SA with respect to the number of sampling points are also examined with different combinations of input parameter sets and output response variables and their alternative metrics. This study helps identify the optimal SA approach, provides guidance for the calibration of the Community Land Model parameters to improve the model simulations of land surface fluxes, and approximates the magnitudes to be adjusted in the parameter values during parametric model optimization.

  3. The GEWEX LandFlux project: Evaluation of model evaporation using tower-based and globally gridded forcing data

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    McCabe, M. F.; Ershadi, A.; Jimenez, C.; Miralles, D. G.; Michel, D.; Wood, E. F.

    2016-01-26

    Determining the spatial distribution and temporal development of evaporation at regional and global scales is required to improve our understanding of the coupled water and energy cycles and to better monitor any changes in observed trends and variability of linked hydrological processes. With recent international efforts guiding the development of long-term and globally distributed flux estimates, continued product assessments are required to inform upon the selection of suitable model structures and also to establish the appropriateness of these multi-model simulations for global application. In support of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges (GEWEX) LandFlux project, fourmore » commonly used evaporation models are evaluated against data from tower-based eddy-covariance observations, distributed across a range of biomes and climate zones. The selected schemes include the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) approach, the Priestley–Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model, the Penman–Monteith-based Mu model (PM-Mu) and the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). Here we seek to examine the fidelity of global evaporation simulations by examining the multi-model response to varying sources of forcing data. To do this, we perform parallel and collocated model simulations using tower-based data together with a global-scale grid-based forcing product. Through quantifying the multi-model response to high-quality tower data, a better understanding of the subsequent model response to the coarse-scale globally gridded data that underlies the LandFlux product can be obtained, while also providing a relative evaluation and assessment of model performance. Using surface flux observations from 45 globally distributed eddy-covariance stations as independent metrics of performance, the tower-based analysis indicated that PT-JPL provided the highest overall statistical performance (0.72; 61 W m–2; 0.65), followed closely by GLEAM

  4. Exploring changes in solar model physics to mitigate the solar...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Exploring changes in solar model physics to mitigate the solar abundance problem Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Exploring changes in solar model physics to mitigate the ...

  5. Utilizing CLASIC observations and multiscale models to study the impact of improved Land surface representation on modeling cloud- convection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Niyogi, Devdutta S.

    2013-06-07

    The CLASIC experiment was conducted over the US southern great plains (SGP) in June 2007 with an objective to lead an enhanced understanding of the cumulus convection particularly as it relates to land surface conditions. This project was design to help assist with understanding the overall improvement of land atmosphere convection initiation representation of which is important for global and regional models. The study helped address one of the critical documented deficiency in the models central to the ARM objectives for cumulus convection initiation and particularly under summer time conditions. This project was guided by the scientific question building on the CLASIC theme questions: What is the effect of improved land surface representation on the ability of coupled models to simulate cumulus and convection initiation? The focus was on the US Southern Great Plains region. Since the CLASIC period was anomalously wet the strategy has been to use other periods and domains to develop the comparative assessment for the CLASIC data period, and to understand the mechanisms of the anomalous wet conditions on the tropical systems and convection over land. The data periods include the IHOP 2002 field experiment that was over roughly same domain as the CLASIC in the SGP, and some of the DOE funded Ameriflux datasets.

  6. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Dale, V. H.; Rauscher, H. M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  7. Community Land Model Version 3.0 (CLM3.0) Developer's Guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffman, FM

    2004-12-21

    This document describes the guidelines adopted for software development of the Community Land Model (CLM) and serves as a reference to the entire code base of the released version of the model. The version of the code described here is Version 3.0 which was released in the summer of 2004. This document, the Community Land Model Version 3.0 (CLM3.0) User's Guide (Vertenstein et al., 2004), the Technical Description of the Community Land Model (CLM) (Oleson et al., 2004), and the Community Land Model's Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-DGVM): Technical Description and User's Guide (Levis et al., 2004) provide the developer, user, or researcher with details of implementation, instructions for using the model, a scientific description of the model, and a scientific description of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model integrated with CLM respectively. The CLM is a single column (snow-soil-vegetation) biogeophysical model of the land surface which can be run serially (on a laptop or personal computer) or in parallel (using distributed or shared memory processors or both) on both vector and scalar computer architectures. Written in Fortran 90, CLM can be run offline (i.e., run in isolation using stored atmospheric forcing data), coupled to an atmospheric model (e.g., the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM)), or coupled to a climate system model (e.g., the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3)) through a flux coupler (e.g., Coupler 6 (CPL6)). When coupled, CLM exchanges fluxes of energy, water, and momentum with the atmosphere. The horizontal land surface heterogeneity is represented by a nested subgrid hierarchy composed of gridcells, landunits, columns, and plant functional types (PFTs). This hierarchical representation is reflected in the data structures used by the model code. Biophysical processes are simulated for each subgrid unit (landunit, column, and PFT) independently, and prognostic variables are maintained for each subgrid unit. Vertical heterogeneity

  8. Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Rawlins, M. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Kimball, J. S.; Dass, P.; Lawrence, D.; Burke, E.; Chen, X.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; MacDougall, A.; et al

    2015-07-28

    A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960–2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate modelmore » simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data. The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m⁻² yr⁻², equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960–1969 vs. 2000–2009), with a weakening CO2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO2 sink strength. The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our analysis points to improvements in

  9. A comparative analysis of the impacts of climate change and irrigation on land surface and subsurface hydrology in the North China Plain

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leng, Guoyong; Tang, Qiuhong; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-02-01

    The Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) was used to investigate and compare the effects of climate change and irrigation on terrestrial water cycle. Three climate change scenarios and one irrigation scenario (IRRIG) were simulated in the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change and human perturbations in China. The climate change scenarios consist of (1) HOT (i.e. temperature increase by 2oC); (2) HOTWET (same with HOT but with an increase of precipitation by 15%); (3) HOTDRY (same with HOT but with a decrease of precipitation by 15%). In the IRRIG scenario, the irrigation scheme was calibrated to simulate irrigation amounts that match the actual irrigation amounts and irrigation was divided between surface water and groundwater withdrawals based on census data. Our results show that the impacts of climate change were more widespread while those of irrigation were concentrated only over the agricultural regions. Specifically, the mean water table depth was simulated to decline persistently by over 1 m annually due to groundwater exploitation during the period of 1980-2000, while much smaller effects were induced by climate change. Although irrigation has comparable effects on surface fluxes and surface soil moisture as climate change, it has much greater effects on water table depth and groundwater storage. Moreover, irrigation has much larger effects on the top layer soil moisture whereas increase in precipitation associated with climate change exerts more influence on lower layer soil moisture. This study emphasizes the need to accurately account for irrigation impacts in adapting to climate change.

  10. Evaluating the Community Land Model in a pine stand with shading manipulations and 13CO2 labeling

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Mao, Jiafu; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Thornton, Peter E.; Warren, Jeffrey M.; King, Anthony Wayne; Shi, Xiaoying; Iversen, Colleen M.; Norby, Richard J.

    2016-02-03

    Carbon partitioning and flow through ecosystems regulates land surface atmosphere CO2 exchange and thus is a key, albeit uncertain component of mechanistic models. The Partitioning in Trees and Soil (PiTS) experiment-model project tracked C partitioning through a young Pinus taeda stand following pulse-labeling with 13CO2 and two levels of shading. The field component of this project provided process-oriented data that was used to evaluate and improve terrestrial biosphere model simulations of rapid shifts in carbon partitioning and hydrological dynamics under varying environmental conditions. Here we tested the performance of the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) in capturing short-term carbonmore » and water dynamics in relation to manipulative shading treatments, and the timing and magnitude of carbon fluxes through various compartments of the ecosystem. To constrain CLM4 to closely simulate pretreatment conditions, we calibrated select model parameters with the pretreatment observational data. Compared to CLM4 simulations with default parameters, CLM4 with calibrated model parameters was better able to simulate pretreatment vegetation carbon pools, light response curves, and other initial states and fluxes of carbon and water. Over a 3-week treatment period, the calibrated CLM4 generally reproduced the impacts of shading on average soil moisture at 15-95 cm depth, transpiration, relative change in stem carbon, and soil CO2 efflux rate, although some discrepancies in the estimation of magnitudes and temporal evolutions existed. CLM4, however, was not able to track the progression of the 13CO2 label from the atmosphere through foliage, phloem, roots or surface soil CO2 efflux, even when optimized model parameters were used. This model bias arises, in part, from the lack of a short-term non-structural carbohydrate storage pool and progressive timing of within-plant transport, thus indicating a need for future work to improve the allocation routines in CLM4

  11. Evaluating the Community Land Model in a pine stand with 13CO2 labeling and shading manipulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mao, Jiafu; Ricciuto, Daniel M; Thornton, Peter E; Warren, Jeffrey M.; King, Anthony Wayne; Shi, Xiaoying; Iversen, Colleen M; Norby, Richard J

    2016-01-01

    Carbon partitioning and flow through ecosystems regulates land surface atmosphere CO2 exchange and thus is a key, albeit uncertain component of mechanistic models. The Partitioning in Trees and Soil (PiTS) experiment-model project tracked C partitioning through a young Pinus taeda stand following pulse-labeling with 13CO2 and two levels of shading. The field component of this project provided process-oriented data that was used to evaluate and improve terrestrial biosphere model simulations of rapid shifts in carbon partitioning and hydrological dynamics under varying environmental conditions. Here we tested the performance of the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) in capturing short-term carbon and water dynamics in relation to manipulative shading treatments, and the timing and magnitude of carbon fluxes through various compartments of the ecosystem. To constrain CLM4 to closely simulate pretreatment conditions, we calibrated select model parameters with the pretreatment observational data. Compared to CLM4 simulations with default parameters, CLM4 with calibrated model parameters was better able to simulate pretreatment vegetation carbon pools, light response curves, and other initial states and fluxes of carbon and water. Over a 3-week treatment period, the calibrated CLM4 generally reproduced the impacts of shading on average soil moisture at 15-95 cm depth, transpiration, relative change in stem carbon, and soil CO2 efflux rate, although some discrepancies in the estimation of magnitudes and temporal evolutions existed. CLM4, however, was not able to track the progression of the 13CO2 label from the atmosphere through foliage, phloem, roots or surface soil CO2 efflux, even when optimized model parameters were used. This model bias arises, in part, from the lack of a short-term non-structural carbohydrate storage pool and progressive timing of within-plant transport, thus indicating a need for future work to improve the allocation routines in CLM4. Overall

  12. Evaluating the Community Land Model in a pine stand with 13CO2 labeling and shading manipulations

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Mao, Jiafu; Ricciuto, Daniel M; Thornton, Peter E; Warren, Jeffrey M.; King, Anthony Wayne; Shi, Xiaoying; Iversen, Colleen M; Norby, Richard J

    2016-01-01

    Carbon partitioning and flow through ecosystems regulates land surface atmosphere CO2 exchange and thus is a key, albeit uncertain component of mechanistic models. The Partitioning in Trees and Soil (PiTS) experiment-model project tracked C partitioning through a young Pinus taeda stand following pulse-labeling with 13CO2 and two levels of shading. The field component of this project provided process-oriented data that was used to evaluate and improve terrestrial biosphere model simulations of rapid shifts in carbon partitioning and hydrological dynamics under varying environmental conditions. Here we tested the performance of the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) in capturing short-term carbonmore » and water dynamics in relation to manipulative shading treatments, and the timing and magnitude of carbon fluxes through various compartments of the ecosystem. To constrain CLM4 to closely simulate pretreatment conditions, we calibrated select model parameters with the pretreatment observational data. Compared to CLM4 simulations with default parameters, CLM4 with calibrated model parameters was better able to simulate pretreatment vegetation carbon pools, light response curves, and other initial states and fluxes of carbon and water. Over a 3-week treatment period, the calibrated CLM4 generally reproduced the impacts of shading on average soil moisture at 15-95 cm depth, transpiration, relative change in stem carbon, and soil CO2 efflux rate, although some discrepancies in the estimation of magnitudes and temporal evolutions existed. CLM4, however, was not able to track the progression of the 13CO2 label from the atmosphere through foliage, phloem, roots or surface soil CO2 efflux, even when optimized model parameters were used. This model bias arises, in part, from the lack of a short-term non-structural carbohydrate storage pool and progressive timing of within-plant transport, thus indicating a need for future work to improve the allocation routines in CLM4

  13. Agriculture, land use, and commercial biomass energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edmonds, J.A.; Wise, M.A.; Sands, R.D.; Brown, R.A.; Kheshgi, H.

    1996-06-01

    In this paper we have considered commercial biomass energy in the context of overall agriculture and land-use change. We have described a model of energy, agriculture, and land-use and employed that model to examine the implications of commercial biomass energy or both energy sector and land-use change carbon emissions. In general we find that the introduction of biomass energy has a negative effect on the extent of unmanaged ecosystems. Commercial biomass introduces a major new land use which raises land rental rates, and provides an incentive to bring more land into production, increasing the rate of incursion into unmanaged ecosystems. But while the emergence of a commercial biomass industry may increase land-use change emissions, the overall effect is strongly to reduce total anthropogenic carbon emissions. Further, the higher the rate of commercial biomass energy productivity, the lower net emissions. Higher commercial biomass energy productivity, while leading to higher land-use change emissions, has a far stronger effect on fossil fuel carbon emissions. Highly productive and inexpensive commercial biomass energy technologies appear to have a substantial depressing effect on total anthropogenic carbon emissions, though their introduction raises the rental rate on land, providing incentives for greater rates of deforestation than in the reference case.

  14. A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Technical Report: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model ...

  15. FAO-Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change (MOSAICC) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: FAO-Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of...

  16. Finding of no significant impact: Changes in the sanitary sludge land application program on the Oak Ridge Reservation, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-10-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has completed an environmental assessment (DOE/EA-1042) that evaluates potential impacts of proposed changes in the sanitary sludge land application program on the DOE Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Changes in lifetime sludge land application limits and radionuclide loading are proposed, and two new sources of sewage sludge from DOE facilities would be transported to the City of Oak Ridge Publicly Owned Treatment Works (COR POTW). Lifetime sludge land application limits would increase from 22 tons/acre to 50 tons/acre, which is the limit approved and permitted by the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC). With the approval of TDEC, the permissible radiological dose from sludge land application would change from the current limit of 2x background radionuclide concentrations in receiving soils to a risk-based dose limit of 4 millirem (mrem) per year for the maximally exposed individual. Sludge land application sites would not change from those that are currently part of the program. Based on the results of the analysis reported in the EA, DOE has determined that the proposed action is not a major federal action that would significantly affect the quality of the human environment within the context of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). Therefore, preparation of an environmental impact statement (EIS) is not necessary, and DOE is issuing this Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI). 70 refs., 2 figs., 17 tabs.

  17. Water balance in the Amazon basin from a land surface model ensemble

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Getirana, Augusto; Dutra, Emanuel; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Kam, Jonghun; Li, Hongyi; Decharme, Bertrand; Zhang, Zhengqiu J.; Ducharne, Agnes; Boone, Aaron; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Rodell, Matthew; Mounirou Toure, Ally; Xue, Yongkang; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Arsenault, Kristi Rae; Drapeau, Guillaume; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ronchail, Josyane; Sheffield, Justin

    2014-12-06

    Despite recent advances in modeling and remote sensing of land surfaces, estimates of the global water budget are still fairly uncertain. The objective of this study is to evaluate the water budget of the Amazon basin based on several state-of-the-art land surface model (LSM) outputs. Water budget variables [total water storage (TWS), evapotranspiration (ET), surface runoff (R) and baseflow (B)] are evaluated at the basin scale using both remote sensing and in situ data. Fourteen LSMs were run using meteorological forcings at a 3-hourly time step and 1-degree spatial resolution. Three experiments are performed using precipitation which has been rescaled to match monthly global GPCP and GPCC datasets and the daily HYBAM dataset for the Amazon basin. R and B are used to force the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme and simulated discharges are compared against observations at 165 gauges. Simulated ET and TWS are compared against FLUXNET and MOD16A2 evapotranspiration, and GRACE TWS estimates in different catchments. At the basin scale, simulated ET ranges from 2.39mm.d-1 to 3.26mm.d-1 and a low spatial correlation between ET and P indicates that evapotranspiration does not depend on water availability over most of the basin. Results also show that other simulated water budget variables vary significantly as a function of both the LSM and precipitation used, but simulated TWS generally agree at the basin scale. The best water budget simulations resulted from experiments using the HYBAM dataset, mostly explained by a denser rainfall gauge network the daily rescaling.

  18. Quantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Quantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land Use Change GHG Emissions Quantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land Use Change GHG Emissions ...

  19. Exploring changes in solar model physics to mitigate the solar...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Exploring changes in solar model physics to mitigate the solar abundance problem Citation ... Visit OSTI to utilize additional information resources in energy science and technology. A ...

  20. Berkeley Lab's Bill Collins talks about Modeling the Changing...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Berkeley Lab's Bill Collins talks about Modeling the Changing Earth System: Prospects and Challenges. From the 2014 NERSC User's Group Meeting Berkeley Lab's Bill Collins talks...

  1. A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science Gent, Peter; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Conley, Andrew; Vertenstein, Mariana; Craig, Anthony 54 ENVIRONMENTAL...

  2. Modeling the Changing Earth System: Prospects and Challenges

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bill Collins Modeling the Changing Earth System: Prospects and Challenges February 4, 2014 Bill Collins, Berkeley Lab Downloads CollinSNERSCUG020514.pdf | Adobe Acrobat PDF file Modeling the Changing Earth System: Prospects and Challenges - William Collins, Berkeley Lab Last edited: 2016-04-29 11:35:09

  3. EA-1042: Proposed Changes to the Sanitary Sludge Land Application Program on the Oak Ridge Reservation, Oak Ridge, Tennesee

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This EA evaluates the environmental impacts of the proposal to raise the sludge land application loading limits from the current, self-imposed conservative 48 metric tons/ha lifetime loading to the...

  4. Climate Change Science Program Issues Report on Climate Models | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Climate Change Science Program Issues Report on Climate Models Climate Change Science Program Issues Report on Climate Models July 31, 2008 - 2:40pm Addthis WASHINGTON, DC - The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) today announced the release of the report "Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations," the 10th in a series of 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products (SAPs) managed by U.S. federal agencies. Developed under the leadership of the U.S.

  5. Modeling the Effects of Irrigation on Land Surface Fluxes and States over the Conterminous United States: Sensitivity to Input Data and Model Parameters

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Sacks, William J.; Lei, Huimin; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-09-16

    Previous studies on irrigation impacts on land surface fluxes/states were mainly conducted as sensitivity experiments, with limited analysis of uncertainties from the input data and model irrigation schemes used. In this study, we calibrated and evaluated the performance of irrigation water use simulated by the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) against observations from agriculture census. We investigated the impacts of irrigation on land surface fluxes and states over the conterminous United States (CONUS) and explored possible directions of improvement. Specifically, we found large uncertainty in the irrigation area data from two widely used sources and CLM4 tended to produce unrealistically large temporal variations of irrigation demand for applications at the water resources region scale over CONUS. At seasonal to interannual time scales, the effects of irrigation on surface energy partitioning appeared to be large and persistent, and more pronounced in dry than wet years. Even with model calibration to yield overall good agreement with the irrigation amounts from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), differences between the two irrigation area datasets still dominate the differences in the interannual variability of land surface response to irrigation. Our results suggest that irrigation amount simulated by CLM4 can be improved by (1) calibrating model parameter values to account for regional differences in irrigation demand and (2) accurate representation of the spatial distribution and intensity of irrigated areas.

  6. Meta-analysis of high-latitude nitrogen-addition and warming studies implies ecological mechanisms overlooked by land models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Bouskill, N. J.; Riley, W. J.; Tang, J. Y.

    2014-12-11

    Accurate representation of ecosystem processes in land models is crucial for reducing predictive uncertainty in energy and greenhouse gas feedbacks with the climate. Here we describe an observational and modeling meta-analysis approach to benchmark land models, and apply the method to the land model CLM4.5 with two versions of belowground biogeochemistry. We focused our analysis on the aboveground and belowground responses to warming and nitrogen addition in high-latitude ecosystems, and identified absent or poorly parameterized mechanisms in CLM4.5. While the two model versions predicted similar soil carbon stock trajectories following both warming and nitrogen addition, other predicted variables (e.g., belowgroundmore » respiration) differed from observations in both magnitude and direction, indicating that CLM4.5 has inadequate underlying mechanisms for representing high-latitude ecosystems. On the basis of observational synthesis, we attribute the model–observation differences to missing representations of microbial dynamics, aboveground and belowground coupling, and nutrient cycling, and we use the observational meta-analysis to discuss potential approaches to improving the current models. However, we also urge caution concerning the selection of data sets and experiments for meta-analysis. For example, the concentrations of nitrogen applied in the synthesized field experiments (average = 72 kg ha-1 yr-1) are many times higher than projected soil nitrogen concentrations (from nitrogen deposition and release during mineralization), which precludes a rigorous evaluation of the model responses to likely nitrogen perturbations. Overall, we demonstrate that elucidating ecological mechanisms via meta-analysis can identify deficiencies in ecosystem models and empirical experiments.« less

  7. Meta-analysis of high-latitude nitrogen-addition and warming studies imply ecological mechanisms overlooked by land models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Bouskill, N. J.; Riley, W. J.; Tang, J.

    2014-08-18

    Accurate representation of ecosystem processes in land models is crucial for reducing predictive uncertainty in energy and greenhouse gas feedbacks with the atmosphere. Here we describe an observational and modeling meta-analysis approach to benchmark land models, and apply the method to the land model CLM4.5 with two versions of belowground biogeochemistry. We focused our analysis on the above and belowground high-latitude ecosystem responses to warming and nitrogen addition, and identified mechanisms absent, or poorly parameterized in CLM4.5. While the two model versions predicted similar trajectories for soil carbon stocks following both types of perturbation, other variables (e.g., belowground respiration) differedmore » from the observations in both magnitude and direction, indicating the underlying mechanisms are inadequate for representing high-latitude ecosystems. The observational synthesis attribute these differences to missing representations of microbial dynamics, characterization of above and belowground functional processes, and nutrient competition. We use the observational meta-analyses to discuss potential approaches to improving the current models (e.g., the inclusion of dynamic vegetation or different microbial functional guilds), however, we also raise a cautionary note on the selection of data sets and experiments to be included in a meta-analysis. For example, the concentrations of nitrogen applied in the synthesized field experiments (average =72 kg ha-1 yr-1) are many times higher than projected soil nitrogen concentrations (from nitrogen deposition and release during mineralization), which preclude a rigorous evaluation of the model responses to nitrogen perturbation. Overall, we demonstrate here that elucidating ecological mechanisms via meta-analysis can identify deficiencies in both ecosystem models and empirical experiments.« less

  8. Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rawlins, M. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Kimball, J. S.; Dass, P.; Lawrence, D.; Burke, E.; Chen, X.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; MacDougall, A.; Peng, S.; Rinke, A.; Saito, K.; Zhang, W.; Alkama, R.; Bohn, T. J.; Ciais, P.; Decharme, B.; Gouttevin, I.; Hajima, T.; Ji, D.; Krinner, G.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Miller, P.; Moore, J. C.; Smith, B.; Sueyoshi, T.

    2015-07-28

    A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960–2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate model simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data. The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m⁻² yr⁻², equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960–1969 vs. 2000–2009), with a weakening CO2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO2 sink strength. The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our

  9. Modeling Transient Response of Forests to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dale, Virginia H; Tharp, M Lynn; Lannom, Karen O.; Hodges, Donald G

    2010-01-01

    Our hypothesis is that a high diversity of dominant life forms in Tennessee forests conveys resilience to disturbance such as climate change. Because of uncertainty in climate change and their effects, three climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to simulate a range of potential climate conditions for the state. These climate changes derive from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B storyline that assumes rapid global economic growth. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in five ecological provinces using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation differences from the long-term average are more complex but less striking. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions for five ecological provinces from 1989 to 2300. Average output projects changes in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces in Tennessee with the greatest changes in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Projected declines in total tree biomass are followed by biomass recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The Southern Mixed Forest province results in less diversity in dominant trees as well as lower overall biomass than projections for the other four provinces. The biomass and composition changes projected in this study differ from forest dynamics expected without climate change. These results suggest that biomass recovery following climate change is linked to dominant tree diversity in the southeastern forest of the US. The generality of this observation warrants further investigation, for it relates to ways that forest management may influence climate change effects.

  10. Sensitivity of Surface Flux Simulations to Hydrologic Parameters Based on an Uncertainty Quantification Framework Applied to the Community Land Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Lin, Guang; Ricciuto, Daniel M.

    2012-08-10

    Uncertainties in hydrologic parameters could have significant impacts on the simulated water and energy fluxes and land surface states, which will in turn affect atmospheric processes and the carbon cycle. Quantifying such uncertainties is an important step toward better understanding and quantification of uncertainty of integrated earth system models. In this paper, we introduce an uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework to analyze sensitivity of simulated surface fluxes to selected hydrologic parameters in the Community Land Model (CLM4) through forward modeling. Thirteen flux tower footprints spanning a wide range of climate and site conditions were selected to perform sensitivity analyses by perturbing the parameters identified. In the UQ framework, prior information about the parameters was used to quantify the input uncertainty using the Minimum-Relative-Entropy approach. The quasi-Monte Carlo approach was applied to generate samples of parameters on the basis of the prior pdfs. Simulations corresponding to sampled parameter sets were used to generate response curves and response surfaces and statistical tests were used to rank the significance of the parameters for output responses including latent (LH) and sensible heat (SH) fluxes. Overall, the CLM4 simulated LH and SH show the largest sensitivity to subsurface runoff generation parameters. However, study sites with deep root vegetation are also affected by surface runoff parameters, while sites with shallow root zones are also sensitive to the vadose zone soil water parameters. Generally, sites with finer soil texture and shallower rooting systems tend to have larger sensitivity of outputs to the parameters. Our results suggest the necessity of and possible ways for parameter inversion/calibration using available measurements of latent/sensible heat fluxes to obtain the optimal parameter set for CLM4. This study also provided guidance on reduction of parameter set dimensionality and parameter

  11. EA-1936: Proposed Changes to Parcel ED-1 Land Uses, Utility Infrastructure, and Natural Area Management Responsibility, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    NOTE: This EA has been cancelled. This EA will evaluate the environmental impacts of DOE’s proposed modifications to the allowable land uses, utility infrastructure, and Natural Area management responsibility for Parcel ED-1. The purpose of the modifications is to enhance the development potential of the Horizon Center business/industrial park, while ensuring protection of the adjacent Natural Area. The area addressed by the proposed action was evaluated for various industrial/business uses in the Environmental Assessment Addendum for the Proposed Title Transfer of Parcel ED-1, DOE/EA-1113-A.

  12. Divergent predictions of carbon storage between two global land models: attribution of the causes through traceability analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rafique, Rashid; Xia, Jianyang; Hararuk, Oleksandra; Asrar, Ghassem R.; Wang, Yingping; Luo, Yiqi

    2015-08-27

    Representations of the terrestrial carbon cycle in land models are becoming increasingly complex. It is crucial to develop approaches for critical assessment of the complex model properties in order to understand key factors contributing to models’ performance. In this study, we applied a traceability analysis, which decomposes carbon cycle models into traceable components, to two global land models (CABLE and CLM-CASA’) to diagnose the causes of their differences in simulating ecosystem carbon storage capacity. Driven with similar forcing data, the CLM-CASA’ model predicted ~31% larger carbon storage capacity than the CABLE model. Since ecosystem carbon storage capacity is a product of net primary productivity (NPP) and ecosystem residence time (τE), the predicted difference in the storage capacity between the two models results from differences in either NPP or τE or both. Our analysis showed that CLM-CASA’ simulated 37% higher NPP than CABLE due to higher rates of carboxylation (Vcmax) in CLM-CASA’. On the other hand, τE , which was a function the baseline carbon residence time (τ´E) and environmental effect on carbon residence time, was on average 11 years longer in CABLE than CLM-CASA’. The difference in τE was mainly found to be caused by longer τ´E in CABLE than CLM-CASA’. This difference in τE was mainly caused by longer τ´E of woody biomass (23 vs. 14 years in CLM-CASA’) and higher proportion of NPP allocated to woody biomass (23% vs. 16%). Differences in environmental effects on carbon residence times had smaller influences on differences in ecosystem carbon storage capacities compared to differences in NPP and τ´E. Overall; the traceability analysis is an effective method for identifying sources of variations between the two models.

  13. Archaeology in the Kilauea East Rift Zone: Part 1, Land-use model and research design, Kapoho, Kamaili and Kilauea Geothermal Subzones, Puna District, Hawaii Island

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burtchard, G.C.; Moblo, P.

    1994-07-01

    The Puna Geothermal Resource Subzones (GRS) project area encompasses approximately 22,000 acres centered on the Kilauea East Rift Zone in Puna District, Hawaii Island. The area is divided into three subzones proposed for geothermal power development -- Kilauea Middle East Rift, Kamaili and Kapoho GRS. Throughout the time of human occupation, eruptive episodes along the rift have maintained a dynamic landscape. Periodic volcanic events, for example, have changed the coastline configuration, altered patterns of agriculturally suitable sediments, and created an assortment of periodically active, periodically quiescent, volcanic hazards. Because of the active character of the rift zone, then, the area`s occupants have always been obliged to organize their use of the landscape to accommodate a dynamic mosaic of lava flow types and ages. While the specific configuration of settlements and agricultural areas necessarily changed in response to volcanic events, it is possible to anticipate general patterns in the manner in which populations used the landscape through time. This research design offers a model that predicts the spatial results of long-term land-use patterns and relates them to the character of the archaeological record of that use. In essence, the environmental/land-use model developed here predicts that highest population levels, and hence the greatest abundance and complexity of identifiable prehistoric remains, tended to cluster near the coast at places that maximized access to productive fisheries and agricultural soils. With the possible exception of a few inland settlements, the density of archaeological remains expected to decrease with distance from the coastline. The pattern is generally supported in the regions existing ethnohistoric and archaeological record.

  14. One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voisin, Nathalie; Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Tesfa, Teklu K.; Li, Hongyi; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-11-18

    An integrated model is being developed to advance our understanding of the interactions between human activities, terrestrial system and water cycle, and how system interactions will be affected by a changing climate at the regional scale. As a first step towards that goal, a global integrated assessment model including a waterdemand model is coupled offline with a land surface hydrology routing water resources management model. A spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to project the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and subbasin representation. The model demonstrated reasonable ability to represent the historical flow regulation and water supply over the Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi and Ohio). Implications for the future flow regulation, water supply and supply deficit are investigated using a climate change projection with the B1 emission scenario which affects both natural flow and water demand. Over the Midwest, changes in flow regulation are mostly driven by the change in natural flow due to the limited storage capacity over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi river basins. The changes in flow and demand have a combined effect on the Missouri Summer regulated flow. The supply deficit tends to be driven by the change in flow over the region. Spatial analysis demonstrates the relationship between the supply deficit and the change in demand over urban areas not along a main river or with limited storage, and over areas upstream of groundwater dependent fields with therefore overestimated demand.

  15. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Raymond S. Bradley; Henry F. Diaz

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth??s climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  16. An update on land-ice modeling in the CESM (Conference) | SciTech...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    LJWG efforts to date have led to the inclusion of a dynamic ice-sheet model (the Glimmer Community Ice Sheet Model, or Glimmer-CISM) in the Community Earth System Model (CESM), ...

  17. An Interactive Multi-Model for Consensus on Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kocarev, Ljupco

    2014-07-02

    This project purports to develop a new scheme for forming consensus among alternative climate models, that give widely divergent projections as to the details of climate change, that is more intelligent than simply averaging the model outputs, or averaging with ex post facto weighting factors. The method under development effectively allows models to assimilate data from one another in run time with weights that are chosen in an adaptive training phase using 20th century data, so that the models synchronize with one another as well as with reality. An alternate approach that is being explored in parallel is the automated combination of equations from different models in an expert-system-like framework.

  18. Climate Change Impact Valuation Models Revisited | U.S. DOE Office...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Climate Change Impact Valuation Models Revisited Biological and Environmental Research ... Climate Change Impact Valuation Models Revisited Valuing diverse climate impacts in ...

  19. Modeling Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change: A Case Study of India and Indian States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brenkert, Antoinette L.; Malone, Elizabeth L.

    2005-09-01

    The vulnerability of India and Indian states to climate change was assessed using the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator Prototype (VRIP). The model was adapted from the global/country version to account for Indian dietary practices and data availability with regard to freshwater resources. Results (scaled to world values) show nine Indian states to be moderately resilient to climate change, principally because of low sulfur emissions and a relatively large percentage of unmanaged land. Six states are more vulnerable than India as a whole, attributable largely to sensitivity to sea storm surges. Analyses of results at the state level (Orissa, and comparisons between Maharashtra and Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh) demonstrate the value of VRIP analyses used in conjunction with other socioeconomic information to address initial questions about the sources of vulnerability in particular places. The modeling framework allows analysts and stakeholders to systematically evaluate individual and sets of indicators and to indicate where the likely vulnerabilities are in the area being assessed.

  20. Development of a land ice core for the Model for Prediction Across...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Resource Relation: Conference: Community Earth System Model Workshop ; 2012-06-18 - ... Sponsoring Org: DOELANL Country of Publication: United States Language: English Subject: ...

  1. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Richardson, Andrew D.

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  2. EIA - Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Land use

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    6. Land use 6.1. Total land use, land use change, and forests This chapter presents estimates of carbon sequestration (removal from the atmosphere) and emissions (release into the atmosphere) from forests, croplands, grasslands, and residential areas (urban trees, grass clippings, and food scraps) in the United States. In 2008, land use, land use change, and forests were responsible for estimated net carbon sequestration of 940 MMTCO2e (Table 31), representing 16 percent of total U.S. CO2

  3. Real-time global flood estimation using satellite-based precipitation and a coupled land surface and routing model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, Huan; Adler, Robert F.; Tian, Yudong; Huffman, George J.; Li, Hongyi; Wang, JianJian

    2014-03-01

    A widely used land surface model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, is coupled with a newly developed hierarchical dominant river tracing-based runoff-routing model to form the Dominant river tracing-Routing Integrated with VIC Environment (DRIVE) model, which serves as the new core of the real-time Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS). The GFMS uses real-time satellite-based precipitation to derive flood monitoring parameters for the latitude band 50°N–50°S at relatively high spatial (~12 km) and temporal (3 hourly) resolution. Examples of model results for recent flood events are computed using the real-time GFMS (http://flood.umd.edu). To evaluate the accuracy of the new GFMS, the DRIVE model is run retrospectively for 15 years using both research-quality and real-time satellite precipitation products. Evaluation results are slightly better for the research-quality input and significantly better for longer duration events (3 day events versus 1 day events). Basins with fewer dams tend to provide lower false alarm ratios. For events longer than three days in areas with few dams, the probability of detection is ~0.9 and the false alarm ratio is ~0.6. In general, these statistical results are better than those of the previous system. Streamflow was evaluated at 1121 river gauges across the quasi-global domain. Validation using real-time precipitation across the tropics (30°S–30°N) gives positive daily Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficients for 107 out of 375 (28%) stations with a mean of 0.19 and 51% of the same gauges at monthly scale with a mean of 0.33. Finally, there were poorer results in higher latitudes, probably due to larger errors in the satellite precipitation input.

  4. Using reactive transport codes to provide mechanistic biogeochemistry representations in global land surface models: CLM-PFLOTRAN 1.0

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Tang, G.; Yuan, F.; Bisht, G.; Hammond, G. E.; Lichtner, P. C.; Kumar, J.; Mills, R. T.; Xu, X.; Andre, B.; Hoffman, F. M.; et al

    2015-12-17

    We explore coupling to a configurable subsurface reactive transport code as a flexible and extensible approach to biogeochemistry in land surface models; our goal is to facilitate testing of alternative models and incorporation of new understanding. A reaction network with the CLM-CN decomposition, nitrification, denitrification, and plant uptake is used as an example. We implement the reactions in the open-source PFLOTRAN code, coupled with the Community Land Model (CLM), and test at Arctic, temperate, and tropical sites. To make the reaction network designed for use in explicit time stepping in CLM compatible with the implicit time stepping used in PFLOTRAN,more » the Monod substrate rate-limiting function with a residual concentration is used to represent the limitation of nitrogen availability on plant uptake and immobilization. To achieve accurate, efficient, and robust numerical solutions, care needs to be taken to use scaling, clipping, or log transformation to avoid negative concentrations during the Newton iterations. With a tight relative update tolerance to avoid false convergence, an accurate solution can be achieved with about 50 % more computing time than CLM in point mode site simulations using either the scaling or clipping methods. The log transformation method takes 60–100 % more computing time than CLM. The computing time increases slightly for clipping and scaling; it increases substantially for log transformation for half saturation decrease from 10−3 to 10−9 mol m−3, which normally results in decreasing nitrogen concentrations. The frequent occurrence of very low concentrations (e.g. below nanomolar) can increase the computing time for clipping or scaling by about 20 %; computing time can be doubled for log transformation. Caution needs to be taken in choosing the appropriate scaling factor because a small value caused by a negative update to a small concentration may diminish the update and result in false convergence even with very

  5. Modeling U.S. Energy Use Changes with Global Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadley, Stanton W; Erickson III, David J; Hernandez Figueroa, Jose L

    2006-09-01

    Using a general circulation model of Earth climate (PCM-IBIS) to drive an energy use model (DD-NEMS), we calculated the energy use changes for each year from 2003-2025 for the nine U.S. Census regions. We used five scenarios: 1) a reference with no change in temperatures from the 1970-2003 average, 2) a gradual 1 F rise in temperature by 2025, 3) a gradual 3 F rise by 2025, 4) a climate simulation with low temperature response to CO2 doubling in the atmosphere, and 5) a climate simulation with a more extreme response. The low-?T scenario had a cumulative reduction in energy of 2.1 Quads but an increase in cost of $14.8 billion. The northern states had reductions in cost over the entire period, but most other regions had increases in costs because increases in cooling costs outweighed reductions in heating and other energy uses. Higher temperature sensitivity resulted in increased warming, especially in the winter months. Because heating needs decreased, total energy requirements declined by a cumulative 4.2 Quads. However, total cost still increased $6.1 billion and carbon emissions still rose as coal-based electricity for cooling needs grew.

  6. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gutowski, William J.

    2013-02-07

    The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

  7. Final report on "Modeling Diurnal Variations of California Land Biosphere CO2 Fluxes"

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fung, Inez

    2014-07-28

    In Mediterranean climates, the season of water availability (winter) is out of phase with the season of light availability and atmospheric demand for moisture (summer). Multi-year half-hourly observations of sap flow velocities in 26 evergreen trees in a small watershed in Northern California show that different species of evergreen trees have different seasonalities of transpiration: Douglas-firs respond immediately to the first winter rain, while Pacific madrones have peak transpiration in the dry summer. Using these observations, we have derived species-specific parameterization of normalized sap flow velocities in terms of insolation, vapor pressure deficit and near-surface soil moisture. A simple 1-D boundary layer model showed that afternoon temperatures may be higher by 1 degree Celsius in an area with Douglas-firs than with Pacific madrones. The results point to the need to develop a new representation of subsurface moisture, in particular pools beneath the organic soil mantle and the vadose zone. Our ongoing and future work includes coupling our new parameterization of transpiration with new representation of sub-surface moisture in saprolite and weathered bedrock. The results will be implemented in a regional climate model to explore vegetation-climate feedbacks, especially in the dry season.

  8. integrated-land-use

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    An Integrated Land Use and Transportation Planning Tool for Sydney, Australia Dr. Matthew Berryman, University of Wollongong Monday, November 28, 2011 - 1pm Argonne TRACC Building 222, Room D-233 The SMART Infrastructure Facility at the University of Wollongong, Australia, has been building an agent-based model to explore the feedbacks between transportation and land use. We focus on livability as a key driver of agent's location choice, and in addition to transport we include factors such

  9. Climate data, analysis and models for the study of natural variability and anthropogenic change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, Philip D.

    2014-07-31

    Europe in Cornes and Jones (2013) using station data, E-OBS and ERA-Interim. We have additionally considered the impact of the urban issue on the global scale using the results of the Compo et al. (2011) Reanalyses, 20CR. These only make use of SST and station pressure data. Across the world’s land areas, they indicate similar warming since 1900 to that which has occurred (Compo et al., 2013), again illustrating that urbanization is not the cause of the long-term warming. Changes in HadCRUH global land surface specific humidity and CRUTEM3 surface temperatures from 1973 to 1999 were compared to the CMIP3 archive of climate model simulations with 20th Century forcings (Willett et al., 2010). The models reproduce the magnitude of observed interannual variance over all large regions. Observed and modelled trends and temperature-humidity relationships are comparable with the exception of the extra-tropical Southern Hemisphere where observations exhibit no trend but models exhibit moistening.

  10. Bioenergy and the importance of land use policy in a carbon-constrained world

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Edmonds, James A.; Wise, Marshall A.

    2010-06-01

    Policies aimed at limiting anthropogenic climate change would result in significant transformations of the energy and land-use systems. However, increasing the demand for bioenergy could have a tremendous impact on land use, and can result in land clearing and deforestation. Wise et al. (2009a,b) analyzed an idealized policy to limit the indirect land use change emissions from bioenergy. The policy, while effective, would be difficult, if not impossible, to implement in the real world. In this paper, we consider several different land use policies that deviate from this first-best, using the Joint Global Change Research Institute’s Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Specifically, these new frameworks are (1) a policy that focuses on just the above-ground or vegetative terrestrial carbon rather than the total carbon, (2) policies that focus exclusively on incentivizing and protecting forestland, and (3) policies that apply an economic penalty on the use of biomass as a proxy to limit indirect land use change emissions. For each policy, we examine its impact on land use, land-use change emissions, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, agricultural supply, and food prices.

  11. Development of An Empirical Water Quality Model for Stormwater Based on Watershed Land Use in Puget Sound

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cullinan, Valerie I.; May, Christopher W.; Brandenberger, Jill M.; Judd, Chaeli; Johnston, Robert K.

    2007-03-29

    The Sinclair and Dyes Inlet watershed is located on the west side of Puget Sound in Kitsap County, Washington, U.S.A. (Figure 1). The Puget Sound Naval Shipyard (PSNS), U.S Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), the Washington State Department of Ecology (WA-DOE), Kitsap County, City of Bremerton, City of Bainbridge Island, City of Port Orchard, and the Suquamish Tribe have joined in a cooperative effort to evaluate water-quality conditions in the Sinclair-Dyes Inlet watershed and correct identified problems. A major focus of this project, known as Project ENVVEST, is to develop Water Clean-up (TMDL) Plans for constituents listed on the 303(d) list within the Sinclair and Dyes Inlet watershed. Segments within the Sinclair and Dyes Inlet watershed were listed on the State of Washington’s 1998 303(d) because of fecal coliform contamination in marine water, metals in sediment and fish tissue, and organics in sediment and fish tissue (WA-DOE 2003). Stormwater loading was identified by ENVVEST as one potential source of sediment contamination, which lacked sufficient data for a contaminant mass balance calculation for the watershed. This paper summarizes the development of an empirical model for estimating contaminant concentrations in all streams discharging into Sinclair and Dyes Inlets based on watershed land use, 18 storm events, and wet/dry season baseflow conditions between November 2002 and May 2005. Stream pollutant concentrations along with estimates for outfalls and surface runoff will be used in estimating the loading and ultimately in establishing a Water Cleanup Plan (TMDL) for the Sinclair-Dyes Inlet watershed.

  12. Addressing numerical challenges in introducing a reactive transport code into a land surface model: a biogeochemical modeling proof-of-concept with CLM–PFLOTRAN 1.0

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Tang, Guoping; Yuan, Fengming; Bisht, Gautam; Hammond, Glenn E.; Lichtner, Peter C.; Kumar, Jitendra; Mills, Richard T.; Xu, Xiaofeng; Andre, Ben; Hoffman, Forrest M.; et al

    2016-03-04

    We explore coupling to a configurable subsurface reactive transport code as a flexible and extensible approach to biogeochemistry in land surface models. A reaction network with the Community Land Model carbon–nitrogen (CLM-CN) decomposition, nitrification, denitrification, and plant uptake is used as an example. We implement the reactions in the open-source PFLOTRAN (massively parallel subsurface flow and reactive transport) code and couple it with the CLM. To make the rate formulae designed for use in explicit time stepping in CLMs compatible with the implicit time stepping used in PFLOTRAN, the Monod substrate rate-limiting function with a residual concentration is used to represent the limitation ofmore » nitrogen availability on plant uptake and immobilization. We demonstrate that CLM–PFLOTRAN predictions (without invoking PFLOTRAN transport) are consistent with CLM4.5 for Arctic, temperate, and tropical sites.Switching from explicit to implicit method increases rigor but introduces numerical challenges. Care needs to be taken to use scaling, clipping, or log transformation to avoid negative concentrations during the Newton iterations. With a tight relative update tolerance (STOL) to avoid false convergence, an accurate solution can be achieved with about 50 % more computing time than CLM in point mode site simulations using either the scaling or clipping methods. The log transformation method takes 60–100 % more computing time than CLM. The computing time increases slightly for clipping and scaling; it increases substantially for log transformation for half saturation decrease from 10−3 to 10−9 mol m−3, which normally results in decreasing nitrogen concentrations. The frequent occurrence of very low concentrations (e.g. below nanomolar) can increase the computing time for clipping or scaling by about 20 %, double for log transformation. Overall, the log transformation method is accurate and robust, and the clipping and scaling

  13. Addressing numerical challenges in introducing a reactive transport code into a land surface model: A biogeochemical modeling proof-of-concept with CLM PFLOTRAN 1.0

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Tang, Guoping; Yuan, Fengming; Bisht, Gautam; Hammond, Glenn E.; Lichtner, Peter C.; Kumar, Jitendra; Mills, Richard T.; Xu, Xiaofeng; Andre, Ben; Hoffman, Forrest M.; et al

    2016-03-04

    Here, we explore coupling to a configurable subsurface reactive transport code as a flexible and extensible approach to biogeochemistry in land surface models. A reaction network with the Community Land Model carbon nitrogen (CLM-CN) decomposition, nitrification, denitrification, and plant uptake is used as an example. We implement the reactions in the open-source PFLOTRAN (massively parallel subsurface flow and reactive transport) code and couple it with the CLM. To make the rate formulae designed for use in explicit time stepping in CLMs compatible with the implicit time stepping used in PFLOTRAN, the Monod substrate rate-limiting function with a residual concentration ismore » used to represent the limitation of nitrogen availability on plant uptake and immobilization. We demonstrate that CLM PFLOTRAN predictions (without invoking PFLOTRAN transport) are consistent with CLM4.5 for Arctic, temperate, and tropical sites. Switching from explicit to implicit method increases rigor but introduces numerical challenges. Care needs to be taken to use scaling, clipping, or log transformation to avoid negative concentrations during the Newton iterations. With a tight relative update tolerance (STOL) to avoid false convergence, an accurate solution can be achieved with about 50 % more computing time than CLM in point mode site simulations using either the scaling or clipping methods. The log transformation method takes 60–100 % more computing time than CLM. The computing time increases slightly for clipping and scaling; it increases substantially for log transformation for half saturation decrease from 10–3 to 10–9 mol m–3, which normally results in decreasing nitrogen concentrations. The frequent occurrence of very low concentrations (e.g. below nanomolar) can increase the computing time for clipping or scaling by about 20 %, double for log transformation. Overall, the log transformation method is accurate and robust, and the clipping and scaling methods are

  14. Impact of heterogeneous chemistry on model predictions of ozone changes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Granier, C.; Brasseur, G. )

    1992-11-20

    A two-dimensional chemical/transport model of the middle atmosphere is used to assess the importance of chemical heterogeneous processes in the polar regions (on polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs)) and at other latitudes (on sulfate aerosols). When conversion on type I and type II PSCs of N[sub 2]O[sub 5] into HNO[sub 3] and of CIONO[sub 2] into reactive forms of chlorine is taken into account, enhanced CIO concentrations lead to the formation of a springtime ozone hole over the Antarctic continent; no such major reduction in the ozone column is found in the Arctic region. When conversion of nitrogen and chlorine compounds is assumed to occur on sulfate particles in the lower stratosphere, significant perturbations in the chemistry are also found. For background aerosol conditions, the concentration of nitric acid is enhanced and agrees with observed values, while that of nitrogen oxides is reduced and agrees less than if heterogeneous processes are ignored in the calculations. The concentration of the OH radical is significantly increased. Ozone number density appears to become larger between 16 and 30 km but smaller below 16 km, especially at high latitudes. The ozone column is only slightly modified, except at high latitudes where it is substantially reduced if the CIONO[sub 2] conversion into reactive chlorine is considered. After a large volcanic eruption these changes are further exacerbated. The ozone budget in the lower stratrosphere becomes less affected by nitrogen oxides but is largely controlled by the CIO[sub x] and HO[sub x] chemistries. A substantial decrease in the ozone column is predicted as a result of the Pinatubo volcanic eruption, mostly in winter at middle and high latitudes. 62 refs., 18 figs., 3 tabs.

  15. Microsoft Word - MSA - Theory of Change Logic Model (1).docx

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    math and science concepts by understanding and organizing facts and information in new ways. * Reflects on how personal understanding has changed over time and recognizes...

  16. Comparison of Global Model Results from the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) with Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) Manipulation Experiments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, Jim; Fung, Inez; Thornton, Peter E; Covey, Curtis; Bonan, Gordon; Running, Steven; Norby, Richard J

    2008-01-01

    Free-Air CO{sub 2} Enrichment (FACE) manipulation experiments have been carried out at a handful of sites to gauge the response of the biosphere to significant increases in atmospheric [CO{sub 2}]. Early synthesis results from four temperate forest sites suggest that the response of net primary productivity (NPP) is conserved across a broad range of productivity with a stimulation at the median of 23 {+-} 2% when the surrounding air [CO{sub 2}] was raised to 550{approx}ppm. As a part of the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP), a community-based model-data comparison activity, the authors have performed a global FACE modeling experiment using two terrestrial biogeochemistry modules, CLM3-CASA and CLM3-CN, coupled to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM). The two models were forced with an improved NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set and reconstructed atmospheric [CO{sub 2}] and N deposition data through 1997. At the beginning of 1997 in the transient simulations, global atmospheric [CO{sub 2}] was abruptly raised to 550{approx}ppm, the target value used at the FACE sites. In the control runs, [CO{sub 2}] continued to rise following observations until 2004, after which it was held constant out to year 2100. In both simulations, the last 25 years of reanalysis forcing and a constant N deposition were applied after year 2004. Across all forest biomes, the NPP responses from both models are weaker than those reported for the four FACE sites. Moreover, model responses vary widely geographically with a decreasing trend of NPP increases from 40{sup o}N to 70{sup o}N. For CLM3-CASA, the largest responses occur in arid regions of western North America and central Asia, suggesting that responses are most strongly influenced by increased water use efficiency for this model. CLM3-CN exhibits consistently weaker responses than CLM3-CASA' with the strongest responses in central Asia, but significantly constrained by N

  17. A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science The objective of this award was to build a scalable and extensible Earth System Model that can be used to study climate change science. That objective has been achieved with the public release of the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). In particular, the

  18. Harmonization of Land-Use Scenarios for the Period 1500-2100: 600 Years of Global Gridded Annual Land-Use Transitions, Wood Harvest, and Resulting Secondary Lands

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hurtt, George; Chini, Louise Parsons; Frolking, Steve; Betts, Richard; Feddema, Johannes; Fischer, Gavin M.; Fisk, J.P.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Houghton, R. A.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Jones, C.; Kindermann, G.; Kinoshita, Tsuguki; Goldeweijk, Kees K.; Riahi, Keywan; Shevliakova, Elena; Smith, Steven J.; Stehfest, Eike; Thomson, Allison M.; Thornton, P.; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Wang, Y.

    2011-08-08

    In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESM) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005-2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al., 2010). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs.

  19. Integrated Climate and Carbon-cycle Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2006-03-06

    The INCCA model is a numerical climate and carbon cycle modeling tool for use in studying climate change and carbon cycle science. The model includes atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and sea ice components.

  20. Future land use plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-08-31

    The US Department of Energy`s (DOE) changing mission, coupled with the need to apply appropriate cleanup standards for current and future environmental restoration, prompted the need for a process to determine preferred Future Land Uses for DOE-owned sites. DOE began the ``Future Land Use`` initiative in 1994 to ensure that its cleanup efforts reflect the surrounding communities` interests in future land use. This plan presents the results of a study of stakeholder-preferred future land uses for the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), located in central Long Island, New York. The plan gives the Laboratory`s view of its future development over the next 20 years, as well as land uses preferred by the community were BNL ever to cease operations as a national laboratory (the post-BNL scenario). The plan provides an overview of the physical features of the site including its history, topography, geology/hydrogeology, biological inventory, floodplains, wetlands, climate, and atmosphere. Utility systems and current environmental operations are described including waste management, waste water treatment, hazardous waste management, refuse disposal and ground water management. To complement the physical descriptions of the site, demographics are discussed, including overviews of the surrounding areas, laboratory population, and economic and non-economic impacts.

  1. Design change documentation for the National Coal Model. [Mathematical model modifications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1980-05-14

    Several modifications are to be made to the National Coal Model (NCM) under contract number DE-AC01-79EI-10578. The model will be expanded to include two additional demand regions (increasing the total number of demand regions to 41) and one additional supply region (increasing the total number of supply regions to 31). Implementing this change in the NCM will be very simple. The relevant tables and lists will be expanded to include the new regions, and the dimensionality of all relevant arrays will be increased to 31 or 41, as required. A more difficult task will be to appropriately modify the various input data files to reflect the new regions. This task will be the responsibility of the Coal and Electric Power Analysis Division staff. The model will be modified to use externally-specified transportation rates for each origin/destination pair, rather than the linear transportation cost equations (based on mileage) that are used presently. Thus, an input file of transportation rates (prepared externally to the NCM, as are the coal supply curves) will be used directly to provide transportation rates ($/ton) for each coal type/origin/destination activity (i.e., column) generated in the transportation portion of the matrix generator. Other modifications under consideration relate to model output reports, an industrial boiler fuel model, and price-sensitive non-utility demand.

  2. Coupling a Reactive Transport Code with a Global Land Surface Model for Mechanistic Biogeochemistry Representation: 1. Addressing the Challenge of Nonnegativity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tang, Guoping; Yuan, Fengming; Bisht, Gautam; Hammond, Glenn E.; Lichtner, Peter C.; Collier, Nathaniel O.; Kumar, Jitendra; Mills, Richard T.; Xu, Xiaofeng; Andre, Ben; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Painter, Scott L.; Thornton, Peter E.

    2016-01-01

    Reactive transport codes (e.g., PFLOTRAN) are increasingly used to improve the representation of biogeochemical processes in terrestrial ecosystem models (e.g., the Community Land Model, CLM). As CLM and PFLOTRAN use explicit and implicit time stepping, implementation of CLM biogeochemical reactions in PFLOTRAN can result in negative concentration, which is not physical and can cause numerical instability and errors. The objective of this work is to address the nonnegativity challenge to obtain accurate, efficient, and robust solutions. We illustrate the implementation of a reaction network with the CLM-CN decomposition, nitrification, denitrification, and plant nitrogen uptake reactions and test the implementation at arctic, temperate, and tropical sites. We examine use of scaling back the update during each iteration (SU), log transformation (LT), and downregulating the reaction rate to account for reactant availability limitation to enforce nonnegativity. Both SU and LT guarantee nonnegativity but with implications. When a very small scaling factor occurs due to either consumption or numerical overshoot, and the iterations are deemed converged because of too small an update, SU can introduce excessive numerical error. LT involves multiplication of the Jacobian matrix by the concentration vector, which increases the condition number, decreases the time step size, and increases the computational cost. Neither SU nor SE prevents zero concentration. When the concentration is close to machine precision or 0, a small positive update stops all reactions for SU, and LT can fail due to a singular Jacobian matrix. The consumption rate has to be downregulated such that the solution to the mathematical representation is positive. A first-order rate downregulates consumption and is nonnegative, and adding a residual concentration makes it positive. For zero-order rate or when the reaction rate is not a function of a reactant, representing the availability limitation of each

  3. Coupling a Reactive Transport Code with a Global Land Surface Model for Mechanistic Biogeochemistry Representation: 1. Addressing the Challenge of Nonnegativity

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Tang, Guoping; Yuan, Fengming; Bisht, Gautam; Hammond, Glenn E.; Lichtner, Peter C.; Collier, Nathaniel O.; Kumar, Jitendra; Mills, Richard T.; Xu, Xiaofeng; Andre, Ben; et al

    2016-01-01

    Reactive transport codes (e.g., PFLOTRAN) are increasingly used to improve the representation of biogeochemical processes in terrestrial ecosystem models (e.g., the Community Land Model, CLM). As CLM and PFLOTRAN use explicit and implicit time stepping, implementation of CLM biogeochemical reactions in PFLOTRAN can result in negative concentration, which is not physical and can cause numerical instability and errors. The objective of this work is to address the nonnegativity challenge to obtain accurate, efficient, and robust solutions. We illustrate the implementation of a reaction network with the CLM-CN decomposition, nitrification, denitrification, and plant nitrogen uptake reactions and test the implementation atmore » arctic, temperate, and tropical sites. We examine use of scaling back the update during each iteration (SU), log transformation (LT), and downregulating the reaction rate to account for reactant availability limitation to enforce nonnegativity. Both SU and LT guarantee nonnegativity but with implications. When a very small scaling factor occurs due to either consumption or numerical overshoot, and the iterations are deemed converged because of too small an update, SU can introduce excessive numerical error. LT involves multiplication of the Jacobian matrix by the concentration vector, which increases the condition number, decreases the time step size, and increases the computational cost. Neither SU nor SE prevents zero concentration. When the concentration is close to machine precision or 0, a small positive update stops all reactions for SU, and LT can fail due to a singular Jacobian matrix. The consumption rate has to be downregulated such that the solution to the mathematical representation is positive. A first-order rate downregulates consumption and is nonnegative, and adding a residual concentration makes it positive. For zero-order rate or when the reaction rate is not a function of a reactant, representing the availability limitation

  4. Land use and energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robeck, K.E.; Ballou, S.W.; South, D.W.; Davis, M.J.; Chiu, S.Y.; Baker, J.E.; Dauzvardis, P.A.; Garvey, D.B.; Torpy, M.F.

    1980-07-01

    This report provides estimates of the amount of land required by past and future energy development in the United States and examines major federal legislation that regulates the impact of energy facilities on land use. An example of one land use issue associated with energy development - the potential conflict between surface mining and agriculture - is illustrated by describing the actual and projected changes in land use caused by coal mining in western Indiana. Energy activities addressed in the report include extraction of coal, oil, natural gas, uranium, oil shale, and geothermal steam; uranium processing; preparation of synfuels from coal; oil refineries; fossil-fuel, nuclear, and hydro-electric power plants; biomass energy farms; and disposal of solid wastes generated during combustion of fossil fuels. Approximately 1.1 to 3.3 x 10/sup 6/ acres were devoted to these activities in the United States in 1975. As much as 1.8 to 2.0 x 10/sup 6/ additional acres could be required by 1990 for new, nonbiomass energy development. The production of grain for fuel ethanol could require an additional 16.9 to 55.7 x 10/sup 6/ acres by 1990. Federal laws that directly or indirectly regulate the land-use impacts of energy facilities include the National Environmental Protection Act, Clean Air Act, Federal Water Pollution Control Act, Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act, and Coastal Zone Management Act. The major provisions of these acts, other relevant federal regulations, and similar state and local regulatons are described in this report. Federal legislation relating to air quality, water quality, and the management of public lands has the greatest potential to influence the location and timing of future energy development in the United States.

  5. Modeling of Damage, Permeability Changes and Pressure Responses...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    the TSX Tunnel in Granitic Rock at URL, Canada Citation Details In-Document Search ... the TSX Tunnel in Granitic Rock at URL, Canada This paper presents numerical modeling of ...

  6. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; et al

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmosphericmore » version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the

  7. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; Bleck, R.; Canuto, V.; Cheng, Y.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A. D.; Faluvegi, G.; Hansen, J. E.; Healy, R. J.; Kiang, N. Y.; Koch, D.; Lacis, A. A.; LeGrande, A. N.; Lerner, J.; Lo, K. K.; Menon, S.; Oinas, V.; Perlwitz, J.; Puma, M. J.; Rind, D.; Romanou, A.; Sato, M.; Shindell, D. T.; Sun, S.; Tsigaridis, K.; Unger, N.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yao, M. -S.; Zhang, Jinlun

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R

  8. Investigating the Nexus of Climate, Energy, Water, and Land at Decision-Relevant Scales: The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kraucunas, Ian P.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dirks, James A.; Hathaway, John E.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Huang, Maoyi; Jin, Chunlian; Kintner-Meyer, Michael C.W.; Kleese van Dam, Kerstin; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Li, Hongyi; Moss, Richard H.; Peterson, Marty J.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.; Thomson, Allison M.; Voisin, Nathalie; West, Tristram O.

    2015-04-01

    The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA) is an innovative modeling system developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to simulate interactions among natural and human systems at scales relevant to regional decision making. PRIMA brings together state-of-the-art models of regional climate, hydrology, agriculture, socioeconomics, and energy systems using a flexible coupling approach. The platform can be customized to inform a variety of complex questions and decisions, such as the integrated evaluation of mitigation and adaptation options across a range of sectors. Research into stakeholder decision support needs underpins the platform's application to regional issues, including uncertainty characterization. Ongoing numerical experiments are yielding new insights into the interactions among human and natural systems on regional scales with an initial focus on the energy-land-water nexus in the upper U.S. Midwest. This paper focuses on PRIMA’s functional capabilities and describes some lessons learned to date about integrated regional modeling.

  9. Impacts of Climate Change on Biofuels Production

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melillo, Jerry M.

    2014-04-30

    The overall goal of this research project was to improve and use our biogeochemistry model, TEM, to simulate the effects of climate change and other environmental changes on the production of biofuel feedstocks. We used the improved version of TEM that is coupled with the economic model, EPPA, a part of MIT’s Earth System Model, to explore how alternative uses of land, including land for biofuels production, can help society meet proposed climate targets. During the course of this project, we have made refinements to TEM that include development of a more mechanistic plant module, with improved ecohydrology and consideration of plant-water relations, and a more detailed treatment of soil nitrogen dynamics, especially processes that add or remove nitrogen from ecosystems. We have documented our changes to TEM and used the model to explore the effects on production in land ecosystems, including changes in biofuels production.

  10. Addressing numerical challenges in introducing a reactive transport code into a land surface model: A biogeochemical modeling proof-of-concept with CLM-PFLOTRAN 1.0: Modeling Archive

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    R. T. Mills; G. Bisht; G. E. Hammond; J. Kumar; P. C. Lichtner; F. M. Hoffman; X. Xu; F. Yuan; S. L. Painter; G. Tang; and P.E. Thornton; B. Andre

    2016-04-19

    This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic discussion paper under review and available at doi:10.5194/gmd-9-927-2016. The purpose is to document the simulations to allow verification, reproducibility, and follow-up studies. This dataset contains shell scripts to create the CLM-PFLOTRAN cases, specific input files for PFLOTRAN and CLM, outputs, and python scripts to make the figures using the outputs in the publication. Through these results, we demonstrate that CLM-PFLOTRAN can approximately reproduce CLM results in selected cases for the Arctic, temperate and tropic sites. In addition, the new framework facilitates mechanistic representations of soil biogeochemistry processes in the land surface model.

  11. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-08-25

    In this paper, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumpingmore » scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change

  12. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-08-25

    In this paper, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change impact

  13. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-08-25

    Abstract In this study, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change

  14. Climate Change Response

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Addressing the Impact of Climate Change on America's Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources Energy and Climate Change Council DOI Climate Science Centers ...

  15. A Dynamic Simulation of the Indirect Land Use Implications of Recent Biofuel Production and Use in the United States.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oladosu, Gbadebo A; Kline, Keith L

    2013-01-01

    The global indirect land use change (ILUC) implications of biofuel use in the United States of America (USA) from 2001 to 2010 are evaluated with a dynamic general equilibrium model. The effects of biofuels production on agricultural land area vary by year; from a net expansion of 0.17 ha per 1000 gallons produced (2002) to a net contraction of 0.13 ha per 1000 gallons (2018) in Case 1 of our simulation. In accordance with the general narrative about the implications of biofuel policy, agricultural land area increased in many regions of the world. However, oil-export dependent economies experienced agricultural land contraction because of reductions in their revenues. Reducing crude oil imports is a major goal of biofuel policy, but the land use change implications have received little attention in the literature. Simulations evaluating the effects of doubling supply elasticities for land and fossil resources show that these parameters can significantly influence the land use change estimates. Therefore, research that provides empirically-based and spatially-detailed agricultural land-supply curves and capability to project future fossil energy prices is critical for improving estimates of the effects of biofuel policy on land use.

  16. Multi-century Changes to Global Climate and Carbon Cycle: Results from a Coupled Climate and Carbon Cycle Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Mirin, A; Wickett, M; Delire, C

    2005-02-17

    In this paper, we use a coupled climate and carbon cycle model to investigate the global climate and carbon cycle changes out to year 2300 that would occur if CO{sub 2} emissions from all the currently estimated fossil fuel resources were released to the atmosphere. By year 2300, the global climate warms by about 8 K and atmospheric CO{sub 2} reaches 1423 ppmv. The warming is higher than anticipated because the sensitivity to radiative forcing increases as the simulation progresses. In our simulation, the rate of emissions peak at over 30 PgC yr{sup -1} early in the 22nd century. Even at year 2300, nearly 50% of cumulative emissions remain in the atmosphere. In our simulations both soils and living biomass are net carbon sinks throughout the simulation. Despite having relatively low climate sensitivity and strong carbon uptake by the land biosphere, our model projections suggest severe long-term consequences for global climate if all the fossil-fuel carbon is ultimately released to the atmosphere.

  17. TRIDEC Land TRIDEC Land Transfer REQUEST Transfer REQUEST

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Area TRIDEC Land TRIDEC Land Transfer REQUEST Transfer REQUEST 300 Acres 300 Acres Additional Lands Additional Lands Identified for Identified for EA Analysis EA Analysis 2,772...

  18. A reduced order modeling approach to represent subgrid-scale hydrological dynamics for regional- and climate-scale land-surface simulations: application in a polygonal tundra landscape

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pau, G. S. H.; Bisht, G.; Riley, W. J.

    2014-04-04

    Existing land surface models (LSMs) describe physical and biological processes that occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. For example, biogeochemical and hydrological processes responsible for carbon (CO2, CH4) exchanges with the atmosphere range from molecular scale (pore-scale O2 consumption) to tens of kilometer scale (vegetation distribution, river networks). Additionally, many processes within LSMs are nonlinearly coupled (e.g., methane production and soil moisture dynamics), and therefore simple linear upscaling techniques can result in large prediction error. In this paper we applied a particular reduced-order modeling (ROM) technique known as "Proper Orthogonal Decomposition mapping method" that reconstructs temporally-resolvedmore » fine-resolution solutions based on coarse-resolution solutions. We applied this technique to four study sites in a polygonal tundra landscape near Barrow, Alaska. Coupled surface-subsurface isothermal simulations were performed for summer months (June–September) at fine (0.25 m) and coarse (8 m) horizontal resolutions. We used simulation results from three summer seasons (1998–2000) to build ROMs of the 4-D soil moisture field for the four study sites individually (single-site) and aggregated (multi-site). The results indicate that the ROM produced a significant computational speedup (> 103) with very small relative approximation error (< 0.1%) for two validation years not used in training the ROM. We also demonstrated that our approach: (1) efficiently corrects for coarse-resolution model bias and (2) can be used for polygonal tundra sites not included in the training dataset with relatively good accuracy (< 1.5% relative error), thereby allowing for the possibility of applying these ROMs across a much larger landscape. This method has the potential to efficiently increase the resolution of land models for coupled climate simulations, allowing LSMs to be used at spatial scales consistent with

  19. A reduced-order modeling approach to represent subgrid-scale hydrological dynamics for land-surface simulations: application in a polygonal tundra landscape

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pau, G. S. H.; Bisht, G.; Riley, W. J.

    2014-09-17

    Existing land surface models (LSMs) describe physical and biological processes that occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. For example, biogeochemical and hydrological processes responsible for carbon (CO2, CH4) exchanges with the atmosphere range from the molecular scale (pore-scale O2 consumption) to tens of kilometers (vegetation distribution, river networks). Additionally, many processes within LSMs are nonlinearly coupled (e.g., methane production and soil moisture dynamics), and therefore simple linear upscaling techniques can result in large prediction error. In this paper we applied a reduced-order modeling (ROM) technique known as "proper orthogonal decomposition mapping method" that reconstructs temporally resolvedmore » fine-resolution solutions based on coarse-resolution solutions. We developed four different methods and applied them to four study sites in a polygonal tundra landscape near Barrow, Alaska. Coupled surface–subsurface isothermal simulations were performed for summer months (June–September) at fine (0.25 m) and coarse (8 m) horizontal resolutions. We used simulation results from three summer seasons (1998–2000) to build ROMs of the 4-D soil moisture field for the study sites individually (single-site) and aggregated (multi-site). The results indicate that the ROM produced a significant computational speedup (> 103) with very small relative approximation error (< 0.1%) for 2 validation years not used in training the ROM. We also demonstrate that our approach: (1) efficiently corrects for coarse-resolution model bias and (2) can be used for polygonal tundra sites not included in the training data set with relatively good accuracy (< 1.7% relative error), thereby allowing for the possibility of applying these ROMs across a much larger landscape. By coupling the ROMs constructed at different scales together hierarchically, this method has the potential to efficiently increase the resolution of land models for coupled

  20. xLPR v2.0: Framework Overview Landing platform and deterministic...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    : Framework Overview Landing platform and deterministic model. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: xLPR v2.0: Framework Overview Landing platform and deterministic model. ...

  1. Future land use threats to range-restricted fish species in the United States

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Januchowski-Hartley, Stephanie R.; Holtz, Lauren A.; Martinuzzi, Sebastian; McIntyre, Peter B.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Pracheil, Brenda M.

    2016-03-04

    Land use change is one major threat to freshwater biodiversity, and land use change scenarios can help to assess threats from future land use change, thereby guiding proactive conservation decisions. Furthermore, our goal was to identify which range-restricted freshwater fish species are most likely to be affected by land use change and to determine where threats to these species from future land use change in the conterminous United States are most pronounced.

  2. Agriculture and Climate Change in Global Scenarios: Why Don't the Models Agree

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Gerald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Calvin, Katherine V.; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; Mueller, C.; Reilly, J. M.; Robertson, Richard; Sands, Ronald; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs makes direct use of weather inputs. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes of key variables such as prices, production, and trade. These divergent outcomes arise from differences in model inputs and model specification. The goal of this paper is to review climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By providing common productivity drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes are reduced. All models show higher prices in 2050 because of negative productivity shocks from climate change. The magnitude of the price increases, and the adaptation responses, differ significantly across the various models. Substantial differences exist in the structural parameters affecting demand, area, and yield, and should be a topic for future research.

  3. Modelling vegetation dynamics at global scale due to climate changes: Comparison of two approaches

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Belotelov, N.V.; Bogatyrev, B.G.; Lobanov, A.I.

    1996-12-31

    Climate changes will influence vegetation dynamics. One of the ways of forecasting these changes is the creation of mathematical models describing vegetation dynamics. Computer experiments can then be conducted under climate change scenarios. Two main approaches are used to create such models. The first approach is based on a bioclimatic dynamic approach. The second approach is based on modelling the main eco-physiological processes. The bioclimatic dynamic approach consists of hypotheses about vegetation types or biomes, and their interrelationships with climate. In the eco-physiological approach, a detailed description of the processes, such as production, mortality, plants migration and their competition is presented. A number of computer experiments has been conducted for several climatic scenario for Russia and the whole world. A qualitative comparison of the results with the results of an earlier bioclimatic model has been done.

  4. Land-Use History and Contemporary Management Inform an Ecological Reference Model for Longleaf Pine Woodland Understory Plant Communities.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brudvig, Lars A.; Orrock, John L.; Damschen, Ellen I.; et al, et al

    2014-01-23

    Ecological restoration is frequently guided by reference conditions describing a successfully restored ecosystem; however, the causes and magnitude of ecosystem degradation vary, making simple knowledge of reference conditions insufficient for prioritizing and guiding restoration. Ecological reference models provide further guidance by quantifying reference conditions, as well as conditions at degraded states that deviate from reference conditions. Many reference models remain qualitative, however, limiting their utility. We quantified and evaluated a reference model for southeastern U.S. longleaf pine woodland understory plant communities. We used regression trees to classify 232 longleaf pine woodland sites at three locations along the Atlantic coastal plain based on relationships between understory plant community composition, soils lol(which broadly structure these communities), and factors associated with understory degradation, including fire frequency, agricultural history, and tree basal area. To understand the spatial generality of this model, we classified all sites together. and for each of three study locations separately. Both the regional and location-specific models produced quantifiable degradation gradients–i.e., progressive deviation from conditions at 38 reference sites, based on understory species composition, diversity and total cover, litter depth, and other attributes. Regionally, fire suppression was the most important degrading factor, followed by agricultural history, but at individual locations, agricultural history or tree basal area was most important. At one location, the influence of a degrading factor depended on soil attributes. We suggest that our regional model can help prioritize longleaf pine woodland restoration across our study region; however, due to substantial landscape-to-landscape variation, local management decisions should take into account additional factors (e.g., soil attributes). Our study demonstrates the utility

  5. On the applicability of surrogate-based MCMC-Bayesian inversion to the Community Land Model: Case studies at Flux tower sites

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Huang, Maoyi; Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; Ren, Huiying; Liu, Ying; Swiler, Laura

    2016-06-01

    The Community Land Model (CLM) has been widely used in climate and Earth system modeling. Accurate estimation of model parameters is needed for reliable model simulations and predictions under current and future conditions, respectively. In our previous work, a subset of hydrological parameters has been identified to have significant impact on surface energy fluxes at selected flux tower sites based on parameter screening and sensitivity analysis, which indicate that the parameters could potentially be estimated from surface flux observations at the towers. To date, such estimates do not exist. In this paper, we assess the feasibility of applying a Bayesianmore » model calibration technique to estimate CLM parameters at selected flux tower sites under various site conditions. The parameters are estimated as a joint probability density function (PDF) that provides estimates of uncertainty of the parameters being inverted, conditional on climatologically-average latent heat fluxes derived from observations. We find that the simulated mean latent heat fluxes from CLM using the calibrated parameters are generally improved at all sites when compared to those obtained with CLM simulations using default parameter sets. Further, our calibration method also results in credibility bounds around the simulated mean fluxes which bracket the measured data. The modes (or maximum a posteriori values) and 95% credibility intervals of the site-specific posterior PDFs are tabulated as suggested parameter values for each site. Lastly, analysis of relationships between the posterior PDFs and site conditions suggests that the parameter values are likely correlated with the plant functional type, which needs to be confirmed in future studies by extending the approach to more sites.« less

  6. The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page; Zhang, Xuesong; Bandaru, Varaprasad; West, Tristram O.; Wise, Marshall A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-19

    Land use change is a complex response to changing environmental and socioeconomic systems. Historical drivers of land use change include changes in the natural resource availability of a region, changes in economic conditions for production of certain products and changing policies. Most recently, introduction of policy incentives for biofuel production have influenced land use change in the US Midwest, leading to concerns that bioenergy production systems may compete with food production and land conservation. Here we explore how land use may be impacted by future climate mitigation measures by nesting a high resolution agricultural model (EPIC Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) for the US Midwest within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM Global Change Assessment Model). This approach is designed to provide greater spatial resolution and detailed agricultural practice information by focusing on the climate mitigation potential of agriculture and land use in a specific region, while retaining the global economic context necessary to understand the far ranging effects of climate mitigation targets. We find that until the simulated carbon prices are very high, the US Midwest has a comparative advantage in producing traditional food and feed crops over bioenergy crops. Overall, the model responds to multiple pressures by adopting a mix of future responses. We also find that the GCAM model is capable of simulations at multiple spatial scales and agricultural technology resolution, which provides the capability to examine regional response to global policy and economic conditions in the context of climate mitigation.

  7. Progress Report 2008: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Drake, John B; Worley, Patrick H; Hoffman, Forrest M; Jones, Phil

    2009-01-01

    This project employs multi-disciplinary teams to accelerate development of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), based at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). A consortium of eight Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories collaborate with NCAR and the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). The laboratories are Argonne (ANL), Brookhaven (BNL) Los Alamos (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore (LLNL), Oak Ridge (ORNL), Pacific Northwest (PNNL) and Sandia (SNL). The work plan focuses on scalablity for petascale computation and extensibility to a more comprehensive earth system model. Our stated goal is to support the DOE mission in climate change research by helping ... To determine the range of possible climate changes over the 21st century and beyond through simulations using a more accurate climate system model that includes the full range of human and natural climate feedbacks with increased realism and spatial resolution.

  8. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Auffhammer, Maximilian; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Schlenker, Wolfram; Sobel, Adam H.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  9. Explicitly Accounting for Protected Lands within the GCAM 3.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dooley, James J.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2012-05-01

    The Global Change Assessment Model Version 3.0 defines three different levels of “Protected Lands” within the agricultural and landuse component. These three different scenarios effectively cordon off 3.5% (5.0 million km2) of the Earth’s terrestrial lands in the de minimus Protected Land Scenario, 5.0% (7.20 million km2) in the Core Protected Land Scenario, and 8.2% (11.8 million km2) in the Expanded Protected Land Scenario. None of these scenarios represents the “right” level of Protected Lands for the planet today or tomorrow. Rather, the goal is to create a range of scenarios that can be used in modeling human responses to climate change and the impact those would have on managed and unmanaged terrestrial lands. These scenarios harness the wealth of information in the United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre’s World Database on Protected Areas and its categories of explicit degrees of protection.

  10. A Large-Scale, High-Resolution Hydrological Model Parameter Data Set for Climate Change Impact Assessment for the Conterminous US

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oubeidillah, Abdoul A; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Naz, Bibi S; Tootle, Glenn

    2014-01-01

    To extend geographical coverage, refine spatial resolution, and improve modeling efficiency, a computation- and data-intensive effort was conducted to organize a comprehensive hydrologic dataset with post-calibrated model parameters for hydro-climate impact assessment. Several key inputs for hydrologic simulation including meteorologic forcings, soil, land class, vegetation, and elevation were collected from multiple best-available data sources and organized for 2107 hydrologic subbasins (8-digit hydrologic units, HUC8s) in the conterminous United States at refined 1/24 (~4 km) spatial resolution. Using high-performance computing for intensive model calibration, a high-resolution parameter dataset was prepared for the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC simulation was driven by DAYMET daily meteorological forcing and was calibrated against USGS WaterWatch monthly runoff observations for each HUC8. The results showed that this new parameter dataset may help reasonably simulate runoff at most US HUC8 subbasins. Based on this exhaustive calibration effort, it is now possible to accurately estimate the resources required for further model improvement across the entire conterminous United States. We anticipate that through this hydrologic parameter dataset, the repeated effort of fundamental data processing can be lessened, so that research efforts can emphasize the more challenging task of assessing climate change impacts. The pre-organized model parameter dataset will be provided to interested parties to support further hydro-climate impact assessment.

  11. Change of variables as a method to study general ?-models: Bulk universality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shcherbina, M.

    2014-04-15

    We consider ? matrix models with real analytic potentials. Assuming that the corresponding equilibrium density ? has a one-interval support (without loss of generality ? = [?2, 2]), we study the transformation of the correlation functions after the change of variables ?{sub i} ? ?(?{sub i}) with ?(?) chosen from the equation ?{sup ?}(?)?(?(?)) = ?{sub sc}(?), where ?{sub sc}(?) is the standard semicircle density. This gives us the deformed ?-model which has an additional interaction term. Standard transformation with the Gaussian integral allows us to show that the deformed ?-model may be reduced to the standard Gaussian ?-model with a small perturbation n{sup ?1}h(?). This reduces most of the problems of local and global regimes for ?-models to the corresponding problems for the Gaussian ?-model with a small perturbation. In the present paper, we prove the bulk universality of local eigenvalue statistics for both one-cut and multi-cut cases.

  12. Selected translated abstracts of Russian-language climate-change publications. 4: General circulation models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burtis, M.D.; Razuvaev, V.N.; Sivachok, S.G.

    1996-10-01

    This report presents English-translated abstracts of important Russian-language literature concerning general circulation models as they relate to climate change. Into addition to the bibliographic citations and abstracts translated into English, this report presents the original citations and abstracts in Russian. Author and title indexes are included to assist the reader in locating abstracts of particular interest.

  13. Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, A.; Weaver, C. P.; Morefield, Philip; Huang, Jin; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Adams, P. J.; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, J.; Mahoney, Hardee

    2012-11-01

    Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices.

  14. Baseline for Climate Change: Modeling Watershed Aquatic Biodiversity Relative to Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maurakis, Eugene G

    2010-10-01

    Objectives of the two-year study were to (1) establish baselines for fish and macroinvertebrate community structures in two mid-Atlantic lower Piedmont watersheds (Quantico Creek, a pristine forest watershed; and Cameron Run, an urban watershed, Virginia) that can be used to monitor changes relative to the impacts related to climate change in the future; (2) create mathematical expressions to model fish species richness and diversity, and macroinvertebrate taxa and macroinvertebrate functional feeding group taxa richness and diversity that can serve as a baseline for future comparisons in these and other watersheds in the mid-Atlantic region; and (3) heighten peoples awareness, knowledge and understanding of climate change and impacts on watersheds in a laboratory experience and interactive exhibits, through internship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, a week-long teacher workshop, and a website about climate change and watersheds. Mathematical expressions modeled fish and macroinvertebrate richness and diversity accurately well during most of the six thermal seasons where sample sizes were robust. Additionally, hydrologic models provide the basis for estimating flows under varying meteorological conditions and landscape changes. Continuations of long-term studies are requisite for accurately teasing local human influences (e.g. urbanization and watershed alteration) from global anthropogenic impacts (e.g. climate change) on watersheds. Effective and skillful translations (e.g. annual potential exposure of 750,000 people to our inquiry-based laboratory activities and interactive exhibits in Virginia) of results of scientific investigations are valuable ways of communicating information to the general public to enhance their understanding of climate change and its effects in watersheds.

  15. Archaeology on Lab Land

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Archaeology on Lab Land Archaeology on Lab Land People have lived in this area for more than 5,000 years. Lab archaeologists are studying and preserving the ancient human occupation of the Pajarito Plateau. Archaeology on Lab Land exhibit Environmental Research & Monitoring Visit our exhibit and find out how Los Alamos researchers are studying our rich cultural diversity. READ MORE Nake'muu archaeological site Unique Archaeology The thousands of Ancestral Pueblo sites identified on Lab land

  16. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO sub 2 and climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth's surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society's ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  17. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth`s surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society`s ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  18. Agreement of central site measurements and land use regression modeled oxidative potential of PM{sub 2.5} with personal exposure

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yang, Aileen; Hoek, Gerard; Montagne, Denise; Leseman, Daan L.A.C.; Hellack, Bryan; Kuhlbusch, Thomas A.J.; Cassee, Flemming R.; Brunekreef, Bert; Janssen, Nicole A.H.

    2015-07-15

    Oxidative potential (OP) of ambient particulate matter (PM) has been suggested as a health-relevant exposure metric. In order to use OP for exposure assessment, information is needed about how well central site OP measurements and modeled average OP at the home address reflect temporal and spatial variation of personal OP. We collected 96-hour personal, home outdoor and indoor PM{sub 2.5} samples from 15 volunteers living either at traffic, urban or regional background locations in Utrecht, the Netherlands. OP was also measured at one central reference site to account for temporal variations. OP was assessed using electron spin resonance (OP{sup ESR}) and dithiothreitol (OP{sup DTT}). Spatial variation of average OP at the home address was modeled using land use regression (LUR) models. For both OP{sup ESR} and OP{sup DTT}, temporal correlations of central site measurements with home outdoor measurements were high (R>0.75), and moderate to high (R=0.49–0.70) with personal measurements. The LUR model predictions for OP correlated significantly with the home outdoor concentrations for OP{sup DTT} and OP{sup ESR} (R=0.65 and 0.62, respectively). LUR model predictions were moderately correlated with personal OP{sup DTT} measurements (R=0.50). Adjustment for indoor sources, such as vacuum cleaning and absence of fume-hood, improved the temporal and spatial agreement with measured personal exposure for OP{sup ESR}. OP{sup DTT} was not associated with any indoor sources. Our study results support the use of central site OP for exposure assessment of epidemiological studies focusing on short-term health effects. - Highlights: • Oxidative potential (OP) of PM was proposed as a health-relevant exposure metric. • We evaluated the relationship between measured and modeled outdoor and personal OP. • Temporal correlations of central site with personal OP are moderate to high. • Adjusting for indoor sources improved the agreement with personal OP. • Our results

  19. Savannah River Site Land Use Plan - May, 2013 i SRNS-RP-2013-00162

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Savannah River Site Land Use Plan - May, 2013 i SRNS-RP-2013-00162 Savannah River Site Land Use Plan - May, 2013 i Table of Contents 1.0 - Purpose p1 2.0 - Executive Summary p1 3.0 - SRS Land Use Overview p5 Assumptions Current Land Use Leases, Transfers and Other Land Use Actions Future Land Use Land Use Issues 4.0 - Land Use Planning and Control for Existing Missions p13 Cleanup, Production and Support Missions Natural and Cultural Resource Management 5.0 - Process for Future Land Use Changes

  20. PIA - Land Record System (SWPA) | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    PIA - Land Record System (SWPA) (250.65 KB) More Documents & Publications PIA - INL PeopleSoft - Human Resource System PIA - Human Resources - Personal Information Change ...

  1. Hawaii Department of Land and Natural Resources Engineering Division...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Land Leasing Contact Contacts.png Morriss Atta Chief Engineer Contacts.png Carty Chang http:hawaii.govdlnreng Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgw...

  2. The Role of Asia in Mitigating Climate Change: Results from the Asia Modeling Exercise

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Krey, Volker; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Jiang, Kejun; Kainuma, M.; Kriegler, Elmar; Luderer, Gunnar; Shukla, Priyadarshi R.

    2012-12-01

    In 2010, Asia accounted for 60% of global population, 39% of Gross World Product, 44% of global energy consumption and nearly half of the worlds energy system CO2 emissions. Thus, Asia is an important region to consider in any discussion of climate change or climate change mitigation. This paper explores the role of Asia in mitigating climate change, by comparing the results of 23 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. We focus our analysis on seven key areas: base year data, future energy use and emissions absent climate policy, the effect of urban and rural development on future energy use and emissions, the role of technology in emissions mitigation, regional emissions mitigation, and national climate policies

  3. Resource Assessment and Land Use Change

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Light Duty Vehicle Workshop in Washington, D.C. on July 26, 2010.

  4. Resource Assessment and Land Use Change

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    * Biofuels producers must compete based on price and seek the lowest cost combination of feedstocks, logistics, and conversion technology * Feedstocks must be profitable for both ...

  5. Impact assessment of land use planning driving forces on environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, Longgao; Yang, Xiaoyan; Chen, Longqian; Li, Long

    2015-11-15

    Land use change may exert a negative impact on environmental quality. A state–impact–state (SIS) model describing a state transform under certain impacts has been integrated into land use planning (LUP) environmental impact assessment (LUPEA). This logical model is intuitive and easy to understand, but the exploration of impact is essential to establish the indicator system and to identify the scope of land use environmental impact when it is applied to a specific region. In this study, we investigated environmental driving forces from land use planning (LUPF), along with the conception, components, scope, and impact of LUPF. This method was illustrated by a case study in Zoucheng, China. Through the results, we concluded that (1) the LUPF on environment are impacts originated from the implementation of LUP on a regional environment, which are characterized by four aspects: magnitude, direction, action point, and its owner; (2) various scopes of LUPF on individual environmental elements based on different standards jointly define the final scope of LUPEA; (3) our case study in Zoucheng demonstrates the practicability of this proposed approach; (4) this method can be embedded into LUPEA with direction, magnitudes, and scopes of the LUPF on individual elements obtained, and the identified indicator system can be directly employed into LUPEA and (5) the assessment helps to identify key indicators and to set up a corresponding strategy to mitigate the negative impact of LUP on the environment, which are two important objectives of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in LUP. - Highlights: • Environmental driving forces from land use planning (LUPF) are investigated and categorized. • Our method can obtains the direction, magnitudes and scopes of environmental driving forces. • The LUPEA scope is determined by the combination of various scopes of LUPF on individual elements. • LUPF assessment can be embedded into LUPEA. • The method can help to

  6. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic Using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassano, John

    2013-06-30

    The primary research task completed for this project was the development of the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). This involved coupling existing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land models using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) coupler (CPL7). RACM is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model, the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean model, the CICE sea ice model, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. A secondary research task for this project was testing and evaluation of WRF for climate-scale simulations on the large pan-Arctic model domain used in RACM. This involved identification of a preferred set of model physical parameterizations for use in our coupled RACM simulations and documenting any atmospheric biases present in RACM.

  7. Flavor changing neutral currents in the 3-3-1 model with right-handed neutrinos

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Benavides, Richard H.; Giraldo, Yithsbey; Ponce, William A.

    2009-12-01

    Flavor changing neutral currents coming from a new nonuniversal neutral gauge boson and from the nonunitary quark mixing matrix for the SU(3){sub c} x SU(3){sub L} x U(1){sub X} model with right-handed neutrinos are studied. By imposing as experimental constraints the measured values of the 3x3 quark mixing matrix, the neutral meson mixing, and bounds and measured values for direct flavor changing neutral current processes, the largest mixing of the known quarks with the exotic ones can be established, with new sources of flavor changing neutral currents being identified. Our main result is that for a |V{sub tb}| value smaller than 1, large rates of rare top decays such as t{yields}c{gamma}, t{yields}cZ, and t{yields}cg (where g stands for the gluon field) are obtained; but if |V{sub tb}|{approx}1 the model can survive present experimental limits only if the mass of the new neutral gauge bosons becomes larger that 10 TeV.

  8. Hierarchical Marginal Land Assessment for Land Use Planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kang, Shujiang; Post, Wilfred M; Wang, Dali; Nichols, Dr Jeff A; Bandaru, Vara Prasad

    2013-01-01

    Marginal land provides an alternative potential for food and bioenergy production in the face of limited land resources; however, effective assessment of marginal lands is not well addressed. Concerns over environmental risks, ecosystem services and sustainability for marginal land have been widely raised. The objective of this study was to develop a hierarchical marginal land assessment framework for land use planning and management. We first identified major land functions linking production, environment, ecosystem services and economics, and then classified land resources into four categories of marginal land using suitability and limitations associated with major management goals, including physically marginal land, biologically marginal land, environmental-ecological marginal land, and economically marginal land. We tested this assessment framework in south-western Michigan, USA. Our results indicated that this marginal land assessment framework can be potentially feasible on land use planning for food and bioenergy production, and balancing multiple goals of land use management. We also compared our results with marginal land assessment from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and land capability classes (LCC) that are used in the US. The hierarchical assessment framework has advantages of quantitatively reflecting land functions and multiple concerns. This provides a foundation upon which focused studies can be identified in order to improve the assessment framework by quantifying high-resolution land functions associated with environment and ecosystem services as well as their criteria are needed to improve the assessment framework.

  9. Measurement and Modeling of Sorption-Induced Strain and Permeability Changes in Coal

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eric P. Robertson

    2005-10-01

    Strain caused by the adsorption of gases was measured in samples of subbituminous coal from the Powder River basin of Wyoming, U.S.A., and high-volatile bituminous coal from the Uinta-Piceance basin of Utah, U.S.A. using a newly developed strain measurement apparatus. The apparatus can be used to measure strain on multiple small coal samples based on the optical detection of the longitudinal strain. The swelling and shrinkage (strain) in the coal samples resulting from the adsorption of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, methane, helium, and a mixture of gases was measured. Sorption-induced strain processes were shown to be reversible and easily modeled with a Langmuir-type equation. Extended Langmuir theory was applied to satisfactorily model strain caused by the adsorption of gas mixtures using the pure gas Langmuir strain constants. The amount of time required to obtain accurate strain data was greatly reduced compared to other strain measurement methods. Sorption-induced changes in permeability were also measured as a function of pres-sure. Cleat compressibility was found to be variable, not constant. Calculated variable cleat-compressibility constants were found to correlate well with previously published data for other coals. During permeability tests, sorption-induced matrix shrinkage was clearly demonstrated by higher permeability values at lower pore pressures while holding overburden pressure constant. Measured permeability data were modeled using three dif-ferent permeability models from the open literature that take into account sorption-induced matrix strain. All three models poorly matched the measured permeability data because they overestimated the impact of measured sorption-induced strain on permeabil-ity. However, by applying an experimentally derived expression to the measured strain data that accounts for the confining overburden pressure, pore pressure, coal type, and gas type, the permeability models were significantly improved.

  10. how much land | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    how much land Home Sfomail's picture Submitted by Sfomail(48) Member 25 June, 2013 - 12:10 Solar Land Use Data on OpenEI acres csp land use how much land land requirements pv land...

  11. csp land use | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    csp land use Home Sfomail's picture Submitted by Sfomail(48) Member 25 June, 2013 - 12:10 Solar Land Use Data on OpenEI acres csp land use how much land land requirements pv land...

  12. Systems Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... International Strategy for Water and Land Resources in Iraq Model US-Canada Algae Biofuel ... Generation Cost Simulation Model Iraq Water-Energy-Food Model The USMexico ...

  13. Bureau of Land Management - Land Use Planning Handbook | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    to library PermittingRegulatory Guidance - GuideHandbook: Bureau of Land Management - Land Use Planning HandbookPermittingRegulatory GuidanceGuideHandbook Abstract...

  14. Colorado State Land Board Land Survey Requirements | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Colorado State Land Board Land Survey Requirements Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library PermittingRegulatory Guidance - GuideHandbook: Colorado...

  15. Hawaii Land Study Bureau's Land Classification Finder | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Not Provided DOI Not Provided Check for DOI availability: http:crossref.org Online Internet link for Hawaii Land Study Bureau's Land Classification Finder Citation Hawaii State...

  16. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  17. Validation of a blowby model using experimental results in motoring condition with the change of compression ratio and engine speed

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aghdam, E. Abdi; Kabir, M.M.

    2010-02-15

    Blowby and gas flow through the cylinder-piston-ring crevices are phenomena that affect the engine performance and exhaust emissions. Also these phenomena influence the cylinder pressure and temperature and the charge amount during a cycle. The study and validation of a sub-model for these phenomena in the absence of engine combustion deducts all effects arisen from the combustion event. During the current study, blowby sub-model and gas flow through crevices under motoring conditions has been noticed using a volume-orifice theory and the experimental results measured from a research engine. Blowby geometric parameters, consisting of a few critical cross-section areas (orifice areas) and volumes (top land and inter-ring crevice volumes), were measured in ambient temperature and corrected for hot running conditions. The cylinder pressure during cycle was measured by a piezoelectric pressure transducer and the low pressure parts of the cycle were measured using a piezoresistive pressure transducer for referencing purposes. The obtained results show a very good agreement between experimentally measured pressure data and model output for three compression ratios of 7.6, 10.2, 12.4 and three engine speeds of 750, 1500 and 2000 rpm, so that the maximum deviation was almost 5%. The model predicted that the maximum mass loss increased with increase of compression ratio and decreased with increase of engine speed. Also the peak mass loss position happened within the range of 3-9 CA after top dead center. After occurrence of the maximum loss, a reverse flow from the top land crevice into the cylinder was predicted in the model. (author)

  18. Uni Land | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    search Name: Uni Land Place: Bologna, Italy Zip: 40063 Sector: Solar Product: Italian property company, which buys land without permits and develops it for residential and...

  19. The Land | Jefferson Lab

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Land April 12, 2016 Over the past nearly two years, there has been enormous activity, ... of its bid for CEBAF. In the following years, one portion of the campus was transferred ...

  20. Proposed Conveyance of Land

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Conveyance of Land at the Hanford Site, Richland, WA Public Scoping Fact Sheet The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is seeking input for a National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Environmental Assessment (EA) to assess the potential environmental effects of conveying approximately 1,641 acres of Hanford Site land to a local economic development organization (https://federalregister.gov/a/2012-23099). The Tri-City Development Council (TRIDEC), a DOE-recognized Community Reuse Organization

  1. Land Management - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Land Management About Us About Hanford Cleanup Hanford History Hanford Site Wide Programs Hanford Cultural Resources Contact Us Land Management Email Email Page | Print Print Page | Text Increase Font Size Decrease Font Size Hanford Site - Hanford Reach The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Operations Office (RL) is responsible for the management of Hanford Site property. RL has issued the Mission Support Contract (MSC) to provide direct support to RL, DOE Office River Protection (ORP)

  2. New Technologies to Reclaim Arid Lands User's Manual

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    W. K. Ostler

    2002-10-01

    Approximately 70 percent of all U.S. military training lands are located in arid and semi-arid areas. Training activities in such areas frequently adversely affect vegetation, damaging plants and reducing the resilience of vegetation to recover once disturbed. Fugitive dust resulting from a loss of vegetation creates additional problems for human health, increasing accidents due to decreased visibility, and increasing maintenance costs for roads, vehicles, and equipment. Under conventional technologies to mitigate these impacts, it is estimated that up to 35 percent of revegetation projects in arid areas will fail due to unpredictable natural environmental conditions, such as drought, and reclamation techniques that were inadequate to restore vegetative cover in a timely and cost-effective manner. New reclamation and restoration techniques are needed in desert ranges to help mitigate the adverse effects of military training and other activities to arid-land environments. In 1999, a cooperative effort between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the US. Department of Defense (DoD), and selected university scientists was undertaken to focus on mitigating military impacts in arid lands. As arid lands are impacted due to DoD and DOE activities, biological and soil resources are gradually lost and the habitat is altered. A conceptual model of that change in habitat quality is described for varying levels of disturbance in the Mojave Desert. As the habitat quality degrades and more biological and physical resources are lost from training areas, greater costs are required to return the land to sustainable levels. The purpose of this manual is to assist land managers in recognizing thresholds associated with habitat degradation and provide reclamation planning and techniques that can reduce the costs of mitigation for these impacted lands to ensure sustainable use of these lands. The importance of reclamation planning is described in this manual with suggestions about

  3. Ecological Principles and Guidelines for Managing the Use of Land

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dale, Virginia H; Brown, Sandra; Haeuber, R A; Hobbs, N T; Huntly, N; Naiman, R J; Riebsame, W E; Turner, M G; Valone, T J

    2014-01-01

    The many ways that people have used and managed land throughout history has emerged as a primary cause of land-cover change around the world. Thus, land use and land management increasingly represent a fundamental source of change in the global environment. Despite their global importance, however, many decisions about the management and use of land are made with scant attention to ecological impacts. Thus, ecologists' knowledge of the functioning of Earth's ecosystems is needed to broaden the scientific basis of decisions on land use and management. In response to this need, the Ecological Society of America established a committee to examine the ways that land-use decisions are made and the ways that ecologists could help inform those decisions. This paper reports the scientific findings of that committee. Five principles of ecological science have particular implications for land use and can assure that fundamental processes of Earth's ecosystems are sustained. These ecological principles deal with time, species, place, dis- turbance, and the landscape. The recognition that ecological processes occur within a temporal setting and change over time is fundamental to analyzing the effects of land use. In addition, individual species and networks of interacting species have strong and far-reaching effects on ecological processes. Furthermore, each site or region has a unique set of organisms and abiotic conditions influencing and constraining ecological processes. Distur- bances are important and ubiquitous ecological events whose effects may strongly influence population, com- munity, and ecosystem dynamics. Finally, the size, shape, and spatial relationships of habitat patches on the landscape affect the structure and function of ecosystems. The responses of the land to changes in use and management by people depend on expressions of these fundamental principles in nature. These principles dictate several guidelines for land use. The guidelines give practical

  4. Methods for modeling impact-induced reactivity changes in small reactors.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tallman, Tyler N.; Radel, Tracy E.; Smith, Jeffrey A.; Villa, Daniel L.; Smith, Brandon M.; Radel, Ross F.; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Wilson, Paul Philip Hood

    2010-10-01

    This paper describes techniques for determining impact deformation and the subsequent reactivity change for a space reactor impacting the ground following a potential launch accident or for large fuel bundles in a shipping container following an accident. This technique could be used to determine the margin of subcriticality for such potential accidents. Specifically, the approach couples a finite element continuum mechanics model (Pronto3D or Presto) with a neutronics code (MCNP). DAGMC, developed at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, is used to enable MCNP geometric queries to be performed using Pronto3D output. This paper summarizes what has been done historically for reactor launch analysis, describes the impact criticality analysis methodology, and presents preliminary results using representative reactor designs.

  5. Global warming and climate change - predictive models for temperate and tropical regions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Malini, B.H.

    1997-12-31

    Based on the assumption of 4{degree}C increase of global temperature by the turn of 21st century due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases an attempt is made to study the possible variations in different climatic regimes. The predictive climatic water balance model for Hokkaido island of Japan (a temperate zone) indicates the possible occurrence of water deficit for two to three months, which is a unknown phenomenon in this region at present. Similarly, India which represents tropical region also will experience much drier climates with increased water deficit conditions. As a consequence, the thermal region of Hokkaido which at present is mostly Tundra and Micro thermal will change into a Meso thermal category. Similarly, the moisture regime which at present supports per humid (A2, A3 and A4) and Humid (B4) climates can support A1, B4, B3, B2 and B1 climates indicating a shift towards drier side of the climatic spectrum. Further, the predictive modes of both the regions have indicated increased evapotranspiration rates. Although there is not much of change in the overall thermal characteristics of the Indian region the moisture regime indicates a clear shift towards the aridity in the country.

  6. NERSC Calculations Provide Independent Confirmation of Global Land Warming

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Since 1901 Calculations Provide Independent Confirmation of Global Land Warming Since 1901 NERSC Calculations Provide Independent Confirmation of Global Land Warming Since 1901 September 9, 2013 Contact: Jon Bashor, jbashor@lbl.gov, 510-486-5849 campo.jpg These maps show the changes in air temperatures over land as measured using thermometers (left side) and as calculated by the 20th Century Reanalysis project (left side). While more than 80 percent of the observed variation is captured by

  7. Paradigm Change: Alternate Approaches to Constitutive and Necking Models for Sheet Metal Forming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoughton, Thomas B.; Yoon, Jeong Whan

    2011-08-22

    This paper reviews recent work proposing paradigm changes for the currently popular approach to constitutive and failure modeling, focusing on the use of non-associated flow rules to enable greater flexibility to capture the anisotropic yield and flow behavior of metals using less complex functions than those needed under associated flow to achieve that same level of fidelity to experiment, and on the use of stress-based metrics to more reliably predict necking limits under complex conditions of non-linear forming. The paper discusses motivating factors and benefits in favor of both associated and non-associated flow models for metal forming, including experimental, theoretical, and practical aspects. This review is followed by a discussion of the topic of the forming limits, the limitations of strain analysis, the evidence in favor of stress analysis, the effects of curvature, bending/unbending cycles, triaxial stress conditions, and the motivation for the development of a new type of forming limit diagram based on the effective plastic strain or equivalent plastic work in combination with a directional parameter that accounts for the current stress condition.

  8. Agriculture, Land Use, Energy and Carbon Emission Impacts of Global Biofuel Mandates to Mid-Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wise, Marshall A.; Dooley, James J.; Luckow, Patrick; Calvin, Katherine V.; Kyle, G. Page

    2014-02-01

    Three potential future scenarios of expanded global biofuel production are presented here utilizing the GCAM integrated assessment model. These scenarios span a range that encompasses on the low end a continuation of existing biofuel production policies to two scenarios that would require an expansion of current targets as well as an extension of biofuels targets to other regions of the world. Conventional oil use is reduced by 4-8% in the expanded biofuel scenarios, which results in a decrease of in CO2 emissions on the order of 1-2 GtCO2/year by mid-century from the global transportation sector. The regional distribution of crop production is relatively unaffected, but the biofuels targets do result in a marked increase in the production of conventional crops used for energy. Producer prices of sugar and corn reach levels about 12% and 7% above year 2005 levels, while the increased competition for land causes the price of food crops such as wheat, although not used for bioenergy in this study, to increase by 1 to 2%. The amount of land devoted to growing all food crops and dedicated bioenergy crops is increased by about 10% by 2050 in the High biofuel case, with concurrent decreases in other uses of land such as forest and pasture. In both of the expanded biofuels cases studied, there is an increase in net cumulative carbon emissions for the first couple of decades due to these induced land use changes. However, the difference in net cumulative emissions from the biofuels expansion decline by about 2035 as the reductions in energy system emissions exceed further increases in emissions from land use change. Even in the absence of a policy that would limit emissions from land use change, the differences in net cumulative emissions from the biofuels scenarios reach zero by 2050, and are decreasing further over time in both cases.

  9. Land-use Policy and Program Design Toolkit | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Pages S251-S264 | Wheater, H.; Evans, E. Exploring land use changes and the role of palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia Land Use Policy, Volume 28, Issue 1, Pages...

  10. Energy and land use

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-12-01

    This report addresses the land use impacts of past and future energy development and summarizes the major federal and state legislation which influences the potential land use impacts of energy facilities and can thus influence the locations and timing of energy development. In addition, this report describes and presents the data which are used to measure, and in some cases, predict the potential conflicts between energy development and alternative uses of the nation's land resources. The topics section of this report is divided into three parts. The first part describes the myriad of federal, state and local legislation which have a direct or indirect impact upon the use of land for energy development. The second part addresses the potential land use impacts associated with the extraction, conversion and combustion of energy resources, as well as the disposal of wastes generated by these processes. The third part discusses the conflicts that might arise between agriculture and energy development as projected under a number of DOE mid-term (1990) energy supply and demand scenarios.

  11. Land-use Leakage

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Kim, Son H.; Wise, Marshall A.; Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page

    2009-12-01

    Leakage occurs whenever actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in one part of the world unleash countervailing forces elsewhere in the world so that reductions in global emissions are less than emissions mitigation in the mitigating region. While many researchers have examined the concept of industrial leakage, land-use policies can also result in leakage. We show that land-use leakage is potentially as large as or larger than industrial leakage. We identify two potential land-use leakage drivers, land-use policies and bioenergy. We distinguish between these two pathways and run numerical experiments for each. We also show that the land-use policy environment exerts a powerful influence on leakage and that under some policy designs leakage can be negative. International offsets are a potential mechanism to communicate emissions mitigation beyond the borders of emissions mitigating regions, but in a stabilization regime designed to limit radiative forcing to 3.7 2/m2, this also implies greater emissions mitigation commitments on the part of mitigating regions.

  12. On the connection between continental-scale land surface processes and the tropical climate in a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ma, Hsi-Yen; Mechoso, C. R.; Xue, Yongkang; Xiao, Heng; Neelin, David; Ji, Xuan

    2013-11-15

    The impact of global tropical climate to perturbations in land surface processes (LSP) are evaluated using perturbations given by different LSP representations of continental-scale in a global climate model that includes atmosphere-ocean interactions. One representation is a simple land scheme, which specifies climatological albedos and soil moisture availability. The other representation is the more comprehensive Simplified Simple Biosphere Model, which allows for interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical processes. The results demonstrate that LSP processes such as interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical processes have strong impacts on the seasonal mean states and seasonal cycles of global precipitation, clouds, and surface air temperature. The impact is especially significant over the tropical Pacific. To explore the mechanisms for such impact, different LSP representations are confined to selected continental-scale regions where strong interactions of climate-vegetation biophysical processes are present. We find that the largest impact is mainly from LSP perturbations over the tropical African continent. The impact is through anomalous convective heating in tropical Africa due to changes in the surface heat fluxes, which in turn affect basinwide teleconnections in the Pacific through equatorial wave dynamics. The modifications in the equatorial Pacific climate are further enhanced by strong air-sea coupling between surface wind stress and upwelling, as well as effect of ocean memory. Our results further suggest that correct representations of land surface processes, land use change and the associated changes in the deep convection over tropical Africa are crucial to reducing the uncertainty when performing future climate projections under different climate change scenarios.

  13. land requirements | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    land requirements Home Sfomail's picture Submitted by Sfomail(48) Member 25 June, 2013 - 12:10 Solar Land Use Data on OpenEI acres csp land use how much land land requirements pv...

  14. Economic consequences of land surface subsidence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fowler, L.C.

    1981-06-01

    Overdraft in the Santa Clara Valley, Calif., groundwater basin caused land surface subsidence over an area of 63,000 ha with a maximum depression of 3.6 m from 1912-67. Since cessation of overdraft and replenishment of groundwater levels in 1969, there has been no significant land surface subsidence. During the period of active subsidence, water well casings buckled, sewers lost capacity as a result of changes in slope, and roads and railroads had to be raised. These damages are estimated at over $130 million. (1 graph, 1 map, 6 photos, 2 references, 1 table)

  15. Integrated modeling of CO2 storage and leakage scenarios including transitions between super- and sub-critical conditions, and phase change between liquid and gaseous CO2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pruess, K.

    2011-05-15

    Storage of CO{sub 2} in saline aquifers is intended to be at supercritical pressure and temperature conditions, but CO{sub 2} leaking from a geologic storage reservoir and migrating toward the land surface (through faults, fractures, or improperly abandoned wells) would reach subcritical conditions at depths shallower than 500-750 m. At these and shallower depths, subcritical CO{sub 2} can form two-phase mixtures of liquid and gaseous CO{sub 2}, with significant latent heat effects during boiling and condensation. Additional strongly non-isothermal effects can arise from decompression of gas-like subcritical CO{sub 2}, the so-called Joule-Thomson effect. Integrated modeling of CO{sub 2} storage and leakage requires the ability to model non-isothermal flows of brine and CO{sub 2} at conditions that range from supercritical to subcritical, including three-phase flow of aqueous phase, and both liquid and gaseous CO{sub 2}. In this paper, we describe and demonstrate comprehensive simulation capabilities that can cope with all possible phase conditions in brine-CO{sub 2} systems. Our model formulation includes: (1) an accurate description of thermophysical properties of aqueous and CO{sub 2}-rich phases as functions of temperature, pressure, salinity and CO{sub 2} content, including the mutual dissolution of CO{sub 2} and H{sub 2}O; (2) transitions between super- and subcritical conditions, including phase change between liquid and gaseous CO{sub 2}; (3) one-, two-, and three-phase flow of brine-CO{sub 2} mixtures, including heat flow; (4) non-isothermal effects associated with phase change, mutual dissolution of CO{sub 2} and water, and (de-) compression effects; and (5) the effects of dissolved NaCl, and the possibility of precipitating solid halite, with associated porosity and permeability change. Applications to specific leakage scenarios demonstrate that the peculiar thermophysical properties of CO{sub 2} provide a potential for positive as well as negative

  16. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science and Actuarial Practice" Read More Permalink New Project Is the ACME of Computer Science to Address Climate Change Analysis, Climate, Global Climate & Energy, Modeling, ...

  17. Integrated dynamic landscape analysis and modeling system (IDLAMS) : installation manual.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Z.; Majerus, K. A.; Sundell, R. C.; Sydelko, P. J.; Vogt, M. C.

    1999-02-24

    The Integrated Dynamic Landscape Analysis and Modeling System (IDLAMS) is a prototype, integrated land management technology developed through a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the US Army Corps of Engineers Construction Engineering Research Laboratories (USACERL). Dr. Ronald C. Sundell, Ms. Pamela J. Sydelko, and Ms. Kimberly A. Majerus were the principal investigators (PIs) for this project. Dr. Zhian Li was the primary software developer. Dr. Jeffrey M. Keisler, Mr. Christopher M. Klaus, and Mr. Michael C. Vogt developed the decision analysis component of this project. It was developed with funding support from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP), a land/environmental stewardship research program with participation from the US Department of Defense (DoD), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). IDLAMS predicts land conditions (e.g., vegetation, wildlife habitats, and erosion status) by simulating changes in military land ecosystems for given training intensities and land management practices. It can be used by military land managers to help predict the future ecological condition for a given land use based on land management scenarios of various levels of training intensity. It also can be used as a tool to help land managers compare different land management practices and further determine a set of land management activities and prescriptions that best suit the needs of a specific military installation.

  18. Sales of Fossil Fuels Produced from Federal and Indian Lands...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    lands in FY 2011 could continue to change for some time, and that revisions to such data are more likely than not to increase reported sales. However, there is no reason to...

  19. Navajo-Hopi Land Commission

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Renewable Power at the Paragon-Bisti Ranch DOE TEP Review, Golden, CO May 7, 2015   THE NAVAJO-HOPI LAND SETTLEMENT ACT  Navajo-Hopi Land Settlement Act passed 1974  Required relocation of Navajo and Hopi families living on land partitioned to other tribe.  Set aside lands for the benefit of relocates  Proceeds from RE development for Relocatee Project Background   Paragon-Bisti Ranch is selected lands :  Located in northwestern New Mexico.  22,000 acres of land

  20. Bureau of Land Management - Land Use Planning | Open Energy Informatio...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Planning Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Web Site: Bureau of Land Management - Land Use Planning Abstract The BLM's Resource Management Plans...

  1. Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2013-04-13

    This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

  2. Reinventing the Bureau of Land Management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yager, J.O.; Muller, K.

    1995-12-01

    The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has developed a {open_quotes}Blueprint for the Future{close_quotes} changing its organizational structure to better manage nearly 270 million acres of public lands and 540 million acres of subsurface mineral resources. Both efforts focus on ecosystem management and better business practices. The mission identified in the {open_quotes}Blueprint{close_quotes} is {open_quotes}to sustain the health, diversity and productivity of the public lands for the use and enjoyment of present and future generations.{close_quotes} Within this mission goals include maintaining healthy ecosystems and improving customer service and business practices. In conjunction with the Blueprint, the BLM developed strategies to streamline its headquarters and field organizational structures and to accommodate an ecosystem management approach. The new headquarters structure uses flexible interdisciplinary work teams in place of the programmatic hierarchical approach. These teams may be established on either a permanent or temporary basis. For example, one team is responsible for reporting on the condition of the public lands as an essential part of maintaining healthy ecosystems. Although it is too early to judge the success of the BLM`s reinvention efforts, insights can be gained from a review of these efforts. One insight is that most people are so used to thinking about the public lands on a statute by statute, resource by resource, project by project basis, that is difficult for them to adjust to the ecosystem management or streamlining paradigms.

  3. California State Lands Commission | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Lands Commission Jump to: navigation, search Logo: California State Lands Commission Name: California State Lands Commission Abbreviation: CSLC Address: 100 Howe Ave., Suite 100...

  4. Texas General Land Office | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Land Office Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Texas General Land Office Name: Texas General Land Office Address: 1700 Congress Ave Place: Austin, Texas Zip: 78701 Website:...

  5. Verification and Validation of EnergyPlus Conduction Finite Difference and Phase Change Material Models for Opaque Wall Assemblies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tabares-Velasco, P. C.; Christensen, C.; Bianchi, M.; Booten, C.

    2012-07-01

    Phase change materials (PCMs) represent a potential technology to reduce peak loads and HVAC energy consumption in buildings. There are few building energy simulation programs that have the capability to simulate PCM but their accuracy has not been completely tested. This report summarizes NREL efforts to develop diagnostic tests cases to obtain accurate energy simulations when PCMs are modeled in residential buildings.

  6. Experimental Design for CMIP6: Aerosol, Land Use, and Future Scenarios Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arnott, James

    2015-10-30

    The Aspen Global Change Institute hosted a technical science workshop entitled, “Experimental design for CMIP6: Aerosol, Land Use, and Future Scenarios,” on August 3-8, 2014 in Aspen, CO. Claudia Tebaldi (NCAR) and Brian O’Neill (NCAR) served as co-chairs for the workshop. The Organizing committee also included Dave Lawrence (NCAR), Jean-Francois Lamarque (NCAR), George Hurtt (University of Maryland), & Detlef van Vuuren (PBL Netherlands Environmental Change). The meeting included the participation of 22 scientists representing many of the major climate modeling centers for a total of 110 participant days.

  7. Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brian C. O'Neill

    2006-08-09

    This report describes results of the research project on "Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics". The overall objective of this project was to improve projections of energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions by taking into account demographic factors currently not incorporated in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of global climate change. We proposed to examine the potential magnitude of effects on energy demand of changes in the composition of populations by household characteristics for three countries: the U.S., China, and Indonesia. For each country, we planned to analyze household energy use survey data to estimate relationships between household characteristics and energy use; develop a new set of detailed household projections for each country; and combine these analyses to produce new projections of energy demand illustrating the potential importance of consideration of households.

  8. Shifting uses for natural resources in a changing climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Darwin, R.; Lewandrowski, J. ); Tsigas, M. ); Raneses, A. )

    1994-12-01

    Changes in climate lead to changes in land resources, which in turn lead to changes in the global pattern of economic activity. A number of studies have evaluated effects of climate change on world agricultural systems. Most however used methods that did not permit explicit incorporation of land resources into the analysis. In the present study, the authors are able to link economic activities to land resources which are determined by climate. Also, since farmers adopt the crop mix best suited to alternative climatic conditions and compete with other economic agents for land, this is explicitly taken into account. They use this framework to estimate the impacts of climate change scenarios based on results of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, the United Kingdom Meteorological Office, and Oregon State University's general circulation models. The results indicate that, despite negative impacts in some regions, climate change will have a relatively small impact on the long-term ability of global agricultural resources to meet future world food demands. These results depend, however, on the ability to shift crop production to new locations.

  9. Addressing trend-related changes within cumulative effects studies in water resources planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Canter, L.W.; Chawla, M.K.; Swor, C.T.

    2014-01-15

    Summarized herein are 28 case studies wherein trend-related causative physical, social, or institutional changes were connected to consequential changes in runoff, water quality, and riparian and aquatic ecological features. The reviewed cases were systematically evaluated relative to their identified environmental effects; usage of analytical frameworks, and appropriate models, methods, and technologies; and the attention given to mitigation and/or management of the resultant causative and consequential changes. These changes also represent important considerations in project design and operation, and in cumulative effects studies associated therewith. The cases were grouped into five categories: institutional changes associated with legislation and policies (seven cases); physical changes from land use changes in urbanizing watersheds (eight cases); physical changes from land use changes and development projects in watersheds (four cases); physical, institutional, and social changes from land use and related policy changes in river basins (three cases); and multiple changes within a comprehensive study of land use and policy changes in the Willamette River Basin in Oregon (six cases). A tabulation of 110 models, methods and technologies used in the studies is also presented. General observations from this review were that the features were unique for each case; the consequential changes were logically based on the causative changes; the analytical frameworks provided relevant structures for the studies, and the identified methods and technologies were pertinent for addressing both the causative and consequential changes. One key lesson was that the cases provide useful, “real-world” illustrations of the importance of addressing trend-related changes in cumulative effects studies within water resources planning. Accordingly, they could be used as an “initial tool kit” for addressing trend-related changes.

  10. Radiative forcing and temperature response to changes in urban albedos and associated CO2 offsets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Menon, Surabi; Akbari, Hashem; Mahanama, Sarith; Sednev, Igor; Levinson, Ronnen

    2010-02-12

    The two main forcings that can counteract to some extent the positive forcings from greenhouse gases from pre-industrial times to present-day are the aerosol and related aerosol-cloud forcings, and the radiative response to changes in surface albedo. Here, we quantify the change in radiative forcing and land surface temperature that may be obtained by increasing the albedos of roofs and pavements in urban areas in temperate and tropical regions of the globe by 0.1. Using the catchment land surface model (the land model coupled to the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model), we quantify the change in the total outgoing (outgoing shortwave+longwave) radiation and land surface temperature to a 0.1 increase in urban albedos for all global land areas. The global average increase in the total outgoing radiation was 0.5 Wm{sup -2}, and temperature decreased by {approx}0.008 K for an average 0.003 increase in surface albedo. These averages represent all global land areas where data were available from the land surface model used and are for the boreal summer (June-July-August). For the continental U.S. the total outgoing radiation increased by 2.3 Wm{sup -2}, and land surface temperature decreased by {approx}0.03 K for an average 0.01 increase in surface albedo. Based on these forcings, the expected emitted CO{sub 2} offset for a plausible 0.25 and 0.15 increase in albedos of roofs and pavements, respectively, for all global urban areas, was found to be {approx} 57 Gt CO{sub 2}. A more meaningful evaluation of the impacts of urban albedo increases on global climate and the expected CO{sub 2} offsets would require simulations which better characterizes urban surfaces and represents the full annual cycle.