National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for land change modeler

  1. Understanding the drivers affecting land use change in Ecuador: an application of the Land Change Modeler software 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Krishna Rajan, Dhruva

    2010-01-01

    deforestation and degradation) and related policy mechanisms has accelerated the need for modelling deforestation. This project looks at developing a methodology for modelling deforestation using the Land Change Modeler software. To generate the model of change...

  2. Retrieving snow mass from GRACE terrestrial water storage change with a land surface model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Zong-Liang

    Retrieving snow mass from GRACE terrestrial water storage change with a land surface model Guo snow water equivalent (SWE) product is critical for climate and hydrology studies in Arctic regions changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS), of which snow mass is the primary component in winter Arctic

  3. Land Use and Land Cover Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, Daniel; Polsky, Colin; Bolstad, Paul V.; Brody, Samuel D.; Hulse, David; Kroh, Roger; Loveland, Thomas; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-05-01

    A contribution to the 3rd National Climate Assessment report, discussing the following key messages: 1. Choices about land-use and land-cover patterns have affected and will continue to affect how vulnerable or resilient human communities and ecosystems are to the effects of climate change. 2. Land-use and land-cover changes affect local, regional, and global climate processes. 3. Individuals, organizations, and governments have the capacity to make land-use decisions to adapt to the effects of climate change. 4. Choices about land use and land management provide a means of reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas levels.

  4. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01

    the GTAP-BIO framework. Climate Change Economics 2012, 03, (in the GTAP-BIO framework. Climate Change Economics 03 (03),Land Use Data for Climate Change Analysis. Routledge Press.

  5. Modeling the effect of land cover land use change on estuarine environmental flows 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sahoo, Debabrata

    2009-05-15

    Watershed. 1.2 Background The present study area, San Antonio River Basin, covers approximately 10, 826 km2. The river runs approximately 405 river km through four different counties. Major tributaries to this river are Leon Creek, Salado Creek..., agencies such as TWDB, and TPWD have used optimization techniques and hydrodynamic modeling to quantify coastal freshwater inflows requirement. Several agencies such as USGS, San Antonio Water Systems (SAWS), and San Antonio River Authority (SARA...

  6. Land-Use Change and Bioenergy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    2011-07-01

    This publication describes the Biomass Program’s efforts to examine the intersection of land-use change and bioenergy production. It describes legislation requiring land-use change assessments, key data and modeling challenges, and the research needs to better assess and understand the impact of bioenergy policy on land-use decisions.

  7. Research priorities in land use and land-cover change for the Earth system and integrated assessment modelling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hibbard, Kathy; Janetos, Anthony; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Pongtatz, Julia; Rose, Steven K.; Betts, Richard; Herold, Martin; Feddema, Johannes J.

    2010-01-01

    for integration into ESMs and IAMs. A key application will be for the detection and attribution of historical climate change; previous detection and attribution studies have been unable to include land-cover change credibly in their range of potential drivers... Index time series, fire observations, night-time lights, hot-spot detection, etc.), a new level of data products and information on land dynamics will soon become available for different time periods since about 1990 (Herold et al., 2008b). 4. Moving...

  8. Assessment of Uncertainties in the Response of the African Monsoon Precipitation to Land Use change simulated by a regional model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Xue, Yongkang; Boone, Aaron; de Sales, Fernando; Neupane, Naresh; Huang, Maoyi; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2014-02-22

    Land use and land cover over Africa have changed substantially over the last sixty years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties on the effect of these changes on the African Monsoon system and Sahel precipitation using an ensemble of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Although the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubs and an increase in surface air temperature.

  9. Simulating the Biogeochemical and Biogeophysical Impacts of Transient Land Cover Change and Wood Harvest in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from 1850 to 2100

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawrence, Peter J.; Feddema, Johannes J.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Meehl, Gerald A.; O’ Neill, Brian C.; Oleson, Keith W.; Levis, Samuel; Lawrence, David M.; Kluzek, Erik; Lindsay, Keith

    2012-05-01

    To assess the climate impacts of historical and projected land cover change in the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), new time series of transient Community Land Model, version 4 (CLM4) plant functional ...

  10. Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schmitz, Christoph; van Meijl, Hans; Kyle, G. Page; Nelson, Gerald C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gurgel, Angelo; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; von Lampe, Martin; Wise, Marshall A.; Blanc, Elodie; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Valin, Hugo

    2014-01-01

    Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10–25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.

  11. A Spatial Modeling Framework to Evaluate Domestic Biofuel-Induced Potential Land Use Changes and Emissions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    : land availability, land suitability, LUC decision-making, and induced CO2 emissions. Using high obtain estimates for average total LUC emissions of 6.1, 2.2, 1.0, 2.2, and 2.4 gCO2e/MJ for Corn-15 fuels remain the major source of energy worldwide, raising concerns about both climate change due to CO2

  12. Global Climate Change,Global Climate Change, Land Cover Change, andLand Cover Change, and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Global Climate Change,Global Climate Change, Land Cover Change, andLand Cover Change, and HydrologyHydrology Steven Fassnacht Watershed Science Colorado State University The Importance of Climate · Climate affects the environment and us ­ Ecology: vegetation and animals ­ Water Systems ­ People

  13. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01

    uncertainty of full carbon accounting of forest ecosystemsA. ; Hopson, E. , Proper accounting for time increases crop-use change modeling in GTEM: Accounting for forest sinks.

  14. Modeling Impacts of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change and Variable Precipitation on Hydrology and Water Quality of a Coastal Watershed in Texas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Castillo, Cesar Ricardo

    2013-05-31

    for the M-A region was conducted by classifying two Landsat images for the years 1990 and 2010. A large degree of LULC change occurred within the M-A region during this time; with 27.1% of the land area experiencing LULC change. Furthermore, developed land...

  15. Modeling the High Plains Aquifer's Response to Land Use and Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dermyer, Reuben

    2011-06-14

    -Monteith evapotranspiration model that changes depending on reference crop and time step. Cn – Constant in the Penman-Monteith evapotranspiration model that changes depending on reference crop and time step. ea – Actual vapor pressure. Units: kPa es – Saturation vapor... automated weather stations. The Saturation vapor pressure, es, was calculated based on daily minimum and maximum 26 temperatures. Actual vapor pressure, ea, for the Penman-Monteith method was calculated using the daily minimum and maximum relative...

  16. Monitoring urban land cover change: An expert system approach to land cover classification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ramsey, Michael

    such as land use data, spatial texture, and digital elevation models (DEMs) to obtain greater classificationMonitoring urban land cover change: An expert system approach to land cover classification with Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data to derive a land cover classification for the semiarid Phoenix

  17. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01

    distributions for soybean biodiesel (food fixed) . . . . . .distributions for soybean biodiesel (food not fixed) . . .land use from expanded biodiesel production. Technical

  18. Soil Carbon Change and Net Energy Associated with Biofuel Production on Marginal Lands: A Regional Modeling Perspective

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bandaru, Varaprasad; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Manowitz, David H.; Link, Robert P.; Zhang, Xuesong; Post, W. M.

    2013-12-01

    The use of marginal lands (MLs) for biofuel production has been contemplated as a promising solution for meeting biofuel demands. However, there have been concerns with spatial location of MLs, their inherent biofuel potential, and possible environmental consequences with the cultivation of energy crops. Here, we developed a new quantitative approach that integrates high-resolution land cover and land productivity maps and uses conditional probability density functions for analyzing land use patterns as a function of land productivity to classify the agricultural lands. We subsequently applied this method to determine available productive croplands (P-CLs) and non-crop marginal lands (NC-MLs) in a nine-county Southern Michigan. Furthermore, Spatially Explicit Integrated Modeling Framework (SEIMF) using EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) was used to understand the net energy (NE) and soil organic carbon (SOC) implications of cultivating different annual and perennial production systems.

  19. Climate Effects of Global Land Cover Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gibbard, S G; Caldeira, K; Bala, G; Phillips, T; Wickett, M

    2005-08-24

    There are two competing effects of global land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to heating when changing from grass/croplands to forest, and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate in a global land cover change scenario. We have performed coupled land/ocean/atmosphere simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model. We find that replacement of current vegetation by trees on a global basis would lead to a global annual mean warming of 1.6 C, nearly 75% of the warming produced under a doubled CO{sub 2} concentration, while global replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4 C. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming. In particular, high latitude forests probably have a net warming effect on the Earth's climate.

  20. What is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, M. L.; Rajagopalan, K.; Chung, S. H.; Jiang, X.; Harrison, J. H.; Nergui, T.; Guenther, Alex B.; Miller, C.; Reyes, J.; Tague, C. L.; Choate, J. S.; Salathe, E.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Adam, J. C.

    2014-05-16

    Regional climate change impact (CCI) studies have widely involved downscaling and bias-correcting (BC) Global Climate Model (GCM)-projected climate for driving land surface models. However, BC may cause uncertainties in projecting hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to future climate due to the impaired spatiotemporal covariance of climate variables and a breakdown of physical conservation principles. Here we quantify the impact of BC on simulated climate-driven changes in water variables(evapotranspiration, ET; runoff; snow water equivalent, SWE; and water demand for irrigation), crop yield, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC), nitric oxide (NO) emissions, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) Region. We also quantify the impacts on net primary production (NPP) over a small watershed in the region (HJ Andrews). Simulation results from the coupled ECHAM5/MPI-OM model with A1B emission scenario were firstly dynamically downscaled to 12 km resolutions with WRF model. Then a quantile mapping based statistical downscaling model was used to downscale them into 1/16th degree resolution daily climate data over historical and future periods. Two series climate data were generated according to the option of bias-correction (i.e. with bias-correction (BC) and without bias-correction, NBC). Impact models were then applied to estimate hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to both BC and NBC meteorological datasets. These im20 pact models include a macro-scale hydrologic model (VIC), a coupled cropping system model (VIC-CropSyst), an ecohydrologic model (RHESSys), a biogenic emissions model (MEGAN), and a nutrient export model (Global-NEWS). Results demonstrate that the BC and NBC climate data provide consistent estimates of the climate-driven changes in water fluxes (ET, runoff, and water demand), VOCs (isoprene and monoterpenes) and NO emissions, mean crop yield, and river DIN export over the PNW domain. However, significant differences rise from projected SWE, crop yield from dry lands, and HJ Andrews’s ET between BC and NBC data. Even though BC post-processing has no significant impacts on most of the studied variables when taking PNW as a whole, their effects have large spatial variations and some local areas are substantially influenced. In addition, there are months during which BC and NBC post-processing produces significant differences in projected changes, such as summer runoff. Factor-controlled simulations indicate that BC post-processing of precipitation and temperature both substantially contribute to these differences at region scales. We conclude that there are trade-offs between using BC climate data for offline CCI studies vs. direct modeled climate data. These trade-offs should be considered when designing integrated modeling frameworks for specific applications; e.g., BC may be more important when considering impacts on reservoir operations in mountainous watersheds than when investigating impacts on biogenic emissions and air quality (where VOCs are a primary indicator).

  1. Land-ocean contrasts under climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Byrne, Michael P

    2015-01-01

    Observations and climate models show a pronounced land-ocean contrast in the responses of surface temperature and the hydrological cycle to global warming: Land temperatures increase more than ocean temperatures, low-level ...

  2. Pluralistic Modelling Approaches to Simulating Climate-Land Change Interactions in East Africa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . Alexandridis4 1 Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47906 food production systems, crop prices and market dynamics, human behavioural factors such as risk with atmospheric trends such as greenhouse gas concentrations, to loop back to regional and global climate change

  3. Ecosystem feedbacks to climate change in California: Development, testing, and analysis using a coupled regional atmosphere and land-surface model (WRF3-CLM3.5)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Subin, Z.M.; Riley, W.J.; Kueppers, L.M.; Jin, J.; Christianson, D.S.; Torn, M.S.

    2010-11-01

    A regional atmosphere model [Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3 (WRF3)] and a land surface model [Community Land Model, version 3.5 (CLM3.5)] were coupled to study the interactions between the atmosphere and possible future California land-cover changes. The impact was evaluated on California's climate of changes in natural vegetation under climate change and of intentional afforestation. The ability of WRF3 to simulate California's climate was assessed by comparing simulations by WRF3-CLM3.5 and WRF3-Noah to observations from 1982 to 1991. Using WRF3-CLM3.5, the authors performed six 13-yr experiments using historical and future large-scale climate boundary conditions from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The land-cover scenarios included historical and future natural vegetation from the Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System-Century 1 (MC1) dynamic vegetation model, in addition to a future 8-million-ha California afforestation scenario. Natural vegetation changes alone caused summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature changes of -0.7 to +1 C in regions without persistent snow cover, depending on the location and the type of vegetation change. Vegetation temperature changes were much larger than the 2-m air temperature changes because of the finescale spatial heterogeneity of the imposed vegetation change. Up to 30% of the magnitude of the summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature increase and 70% of the magnitude of the 1600 local time (LT) vegetation temperature increase projected under future climate change were attributable to the climate-driven shift in land cover. The authors projected that afforestation could cause local 0.2-1.2 C reductions in summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature and 2.0-3.7 C reductions in 1600 LT vegetation temperature for snow-free regions, primarily because of increased evapotranspiration. Because some of these temperature changes are of comparable magnitude to those projected under climate change this century, projections of climate and vegetation change in this region need to consider these climate-vegetation interactions.

  4. Issues in using landscape indicators to assess land changes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kline, Keith L [ORNL; Dale, Virginia H [ORNL

    2012-01-01

    Landscape indicators, when combined with information about environmental conditions (such as habitat potential, biodiversity, carbon and nutrient cycling, and erosion) and socioeconomic forces, can provide insights about changing ecosystem services. They also provide information about opportunities for improving natural resources management. Landscape indicators rely on data regarding land cover, land management and land functionality. Challenges in using landscape indicators to assess change and effects include (1) measures of land management and attributes that are reliable, robust and consistent for all areas on the Earth do not exist, and thus land cover is more frequently utilized; (2) multiple types of land cover and management are often found within a single landscape and are constantly changing, which complicates measurement and interpretation; and (3) while causal analysis is essential for understanding and interpreting changes in indicator values, the interactions among multiple causes and effects over time make accurate attribution among many drivers of change particularly difficult. Because of the complexity, sheer number of variables, and limitations of empirical data on land changes, models are often used to illustrate and estimate values for landscape indicators, and those models have several problems. Recommendations to improve our ability to assess the effects of changes in land management include refinement of questions to be more consistent with available information and the development of data sets based on systematic measurement over time of spatially explicit land qualities such as carbon and nutrient stocks, water and soil quality, net primary productivity, habitat and biodiversity. Well-defined and consistent land-classification systems that are capable of tracking changes in these and other qualities that matter to society need to be developed and deployed. Because landscapes are so dynamic, it is crucial to develop ways for the scientific community to work together to collect data and develop tools that will enable better analysis of causes and effects and to develop robust management recommendations that will increases land s capacity to meet societal needs in a changing world.

  5. Carbon Density and Anthropogenic Land Use Influences on Net Land-Use Change Emissions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Steven J.; Rothwell, Andrew J.

    2013-10-08

    We examine historical and future land-use emissions using a simple mechanistic carbon-cycle model with regional and ecosystem specific parameterizations. Our central estimate of net terrestrial land-use change emissions, exclusive of climate feedbacks, is 250 GtC over the last three hundred years. This estimate is most sensitive to assumptions for preindustrial forest and soil carbon densities. We also find that estimates are sensitive to the treatment of crop and pasture lands. These sensitivities also translate into differences in future terrestrial uptake in the RCP4.5 land-use scenario. This estimate of future uptake is lower than the native values from the GCAM integrated assessment model result due to lower net reforestation in the RCP4.5 gridded land-use data product

  6. A framework for benchmarking land models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Luo, Yiqi; Randerson, J.; Abramowitz, G.; Bacour, C.; Blyth, E.; Carvalhais, N.; Ciais, Philippe; Dalmonech, D.; Fisher, J.B.; Fisher, R.; Friedlingstein, P.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Hoffman, F. M.; Huntzinger, Deborah; Jones, C.; Koven, C.; Lawrence, David M.; Li, D.J.; Mahecha, M.; Niu, S.L.; Norby, Richard J.; Piao, S.L.; Qi, X.; Peylin, P.; Prentice, I.C.; Riley, William; Reichstein, M.; Schwalm, C.; Wang, Y.; Xia, J. Y.; Zaehle, S.; Zhou, X. H.

    2012-10-09

    Land models, which have been developed by the modeling community in the past few decades to predict future states of ecosystems and climate, have to be critically evaluated for their performance skills of simulating ecosystem responses and feedback to climate change. Benchmarking is an emerging procedure to measure performance of models against a set of defined standards. This paper proposes a benchmarking framework for evaluation of land model performances and, meanwhile, highlights major challenges at this infant stage of benchmark analysis. The framework includes (1) targeted aspects of model performance to be evaluated, (2) a set of benchmarks as defined references to test model performance, (3) metrics to measure and compare performance skills among models so as to identify model strengths and deficiencies, and (4) model improvement. Land models are required to simulate exchange of water, energy, carbon and sometimes other trace gases between the atmosphere and land surface, and should be evaluated for their simulations of biophysical processes, biogeochemical cycles, and vegetation dynamics in response to climate change across broad temporal and spatial scales. Thus, one major challenge is to select and define a limited number of benchmarks to effectively evaluate land model performance. The second challenge is to develop metrics of measuring mismatches between models and benchmarks. The metrics may include (1) a priori thresholds of acceptable model performance and (2) a scoring system to combine data–model mismatches for various processes at different temporal and spatial scales. The benchmark analyses should identify clues of weak model performance to guide future development, thus enabling improved predictions of future states of ecosystems and climate. The near-future research effort should be on development of a set of widely acceptable benchmarks that can be used to objectively, effectively, and reliably evaluate fundamental properties of land models to improve their prediction performance skills.

  7. Interaction effects of climate and land use/land cover change on soil organic carbon sequestration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grunwald, Sabine

    Interaction effects of climate and land use/land cover change on soil organic carbon sequestration carbon sequestration Climate change Soil carbon change Historically, Florida soils stored the largest in Florida (FL) have acted as a sink for carbon (C) over the last 40 years. · Climate interacting with land

  8. Land-Use Change Data Analysis

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    change, global bioenergy crop models and indicators of sustainability. Brazilian Bioethanol Science and Technology Laboratory, Campinas, Brazil, Oct 2012. 20 Presentation name...

  9. Impacts of Land-use Changes on Biofuels ORNL History of Exploring Changes in Land Use in the United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Impacts of Land-use Changes on Biofuels ORNL History of Exploring Changes in Land Use in the United. Building from their work on environmental costs and benefits associated with biofuel production, ORNL positively impact the sustainability of the biofuels industry. Building understanding of land-use change from

  10. Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land use change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heald, C. L.; Henze, D. K.; Horowitz, L. W.; Feddema, Johannes J.; Lamarque, J. F.; Guenther, A.; Hess, P. G.; Vitt, F.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Goldstein, A. H.; Fung, I.

    2008-03-01

    The sensitivity of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentration to changes in climate and emissions is investigated using a coupled global atmosphere-land model driven by the year 2100 IPCC A1B scenario predictions. The Community Atmosphere Model...

  11. A framework for benchmarking land models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2012-01-01

    their inclu- sion in Earth system models (ESMs). State-of-land models cou- pled to Earth system models should simulateland models within Earth system models, however, can help

  12. Climate change and land use in Florida: Interdependencies and opportunities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Watson, Craig A.

    Climate change and land use in Florida: Interdependencies and opportunities Stephen Mulkey, Ph June 2007 Revised 30 September 2007 #12;Climate change and land use ­ Report to the Century Commission - S. Mulkey, June 2007 2 Executive summary Over this century anthropogenic climate change will present

  13. Land system architecture: Using land systems to adapt and mitigate global environmental change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Turner, B.L.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Verbug, Peter H.; Murray, Alan T.

    2013-04-01

    Land systems (mosaics of land use and cover) are human environment systems, the changes in which drive and respond to local to global environmental changes, climate to macro-economy (Foley et al., 2005). Changes in land systems have been the principal proximate cause in the loss of habitats and biota globally, long contributed to atmospheric greenhouse gases, and hypothesized to have triggered climate changes in the early Holocene (Ruddiman, 2003). Land use, foremost agriculture, is the largest source of biologically active nitrogen to the atmosphere, critical to sources and sinks of carbon, and a major component in the hydrologic cycle (e.g., Bouwman et al., 2011). Changes in land systems also affect regional climate (Feddema et al., 2005; Pielke, 2005), ecosystem functions, and the array of ecosystem services they provide. Land systems, therefore, are a central feature of how humankind manages its relationship with nature-intended or not, or whether this relationship proceeds sustainably or not.

  14. Gulf of Mexico Regional Land Cover Change Report

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gulf of Mexico Regional Land Cover Change Report 1996­2010 #12;About This Report The Gulf of Mexico at www.coast.noaa.gov. #12;GULF OF MEXICO REGIONAL LAND COVER CHANGE REPORT, 1996­2010 THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION covers over 200,400 square miles and extends from Texas'border with Mexico in the west to the tip

  15. A framework for benchmarking land models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2012-01-01

    processes (exchanges of water and energy) and biogeochemicalsimulation of the water and energy balance (Pitman, 2003).models. Exchange of water and energy between land sur- face

  16. Northeast Regional Land Cover Change Report

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . To learn more about the C-CAP data products used in this report and to access the data sets, please visit% of the total land area. The region has significant coastal-dependent industries, including tourism

  17. Modeling Land Biogeochemistry Term Spring 2015

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ma, Lena

    :30 pm or by appointment Course Description Dynamic land models are widely used as part of Earth system models and serve to represent exchange of energy (heat radiation momentum), water, carbon, and nutrients

  18. Assessing the effect of modified accessibility on land cover change 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peterson, James E

    2009-11-26

    Policies taken towards transportation influence patterns of land cover change and in recent years, significant investments have been made in rail infrastructure in England. The introduction of high speed rail services, ...

  19. Global Change Biology (2000) 6, 317328 Soil Carbon Sequestration and Land-Use Change: Processes and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2000-01-01

    Global Change Biology (2000) 6, 317­328 Soil Carbon Sequestration and Land-Use Change: Processes in enhanced soil carbon sequestration with changes in land-use and soil management. We review literature, and indicates the relative importance of some factors that influence the rates of organic carbon sequestration

  20. Link between land-ocean warming contrast and surface relative humidities in simulations with coupled climate models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Byrne, Michael Patrick

    Simulations of warming climates with coupled climate models exhibit strong land-ocean contrasts in changes in surface temperature and relative humidity, but little land-ocean contrast in changes in equivalent potential ...

  1. The Impacts of Land Cover Change on Climate over China 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Liang

    2015-06-22

    experienced significant land cover changes, such as urbanization (Hua et al. 2008; Zhou et al. 2004), agricultural expansion (Zhang 2000), and desertification (Wang et al. 2006a; Xue 1996). Even though there have been several studies focusing on land... processes (Kalnay and Cai 2003). By using the OMR method, Zhang et al. (2005) suggest that urbanization in southern China, deforestation, and desertification in northern China may increase surface temperature, while vegetation cover increases may decrease...

  2. Effects of climate change, land-use change, and invasive species on the ecology of the Cumberland forests

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dale, Virginia H; Lannom, Karen O.; Hodges, Donald G.; Tharp, M Lynn; Fogel, Jonah

    2009-02-01

    Effects of climate change, land-use change, and invasive species on the ecology of the Cumberland forests

  3. The Impact of Observed Vegetation Changes on LandAtmosphere Feedbacks During Drought

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Evans, Jason

    Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Cold and Arid Regions conditions of the advanced research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to assess the influence show that modeled air temperature was improved when MODIS data were incorporated, while precipitation

  4. Characterizing the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Freshwater Inflows 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ferijal, Teuku

    2009-05-15

    . This study proposed to characterize the impact of land use/cover change in the Guadalupe River Watershed on freshwater inflows to the Guadalupe Estuary. Pre-whitening, Mann-Kendall and bootstrap techniques were used to test for significant trends...

  5. Bioenergy to Biodiversity: Downscaling scenarios of land use change 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacKenzie, Ian

    2009-11-26

    Bioenergy crops are a key component of Scotland’s strategy to meet 2050 carbon emissions targets. The introduction of these crops could have large scale impacts on the biodiversity of lowland farmland. These impacts depend on the change in land use...

  6. Future Flooding in Houston: Modeling the Impacts of Climate and Land Cover Change on Hydrology in the Buffalo-San Jacinto Watershed 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Blount, William Kyle

    2013-02-04

    was recently rated as the fourth fastest growing city in the US with a current population of 6.23 million and a growth rate of two percent (Fisher, 2012). Harris County is also one of the fastest growing counties in the United States (Kever, 2012...://www.hydro.washington.edu/Lettenmaier/Models/VIC/Documentation/Ro uting/UH.shtml>. Jiang, X., Yang, Z., 2012. Projected changes of temperature and precipitation in Texas from downscaled global climate models. Climate Research, 53(3): 229-244. Kever, J., 5 April 2012. Harris leads nation's other counties in growth...

  7. Attributing land-use change carbon emissions to exported biomass

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Saikku, Laura, E-mail: laura.saikku@helsinki.fi [University of Helsinki, P.O Box 65, 00014 University of Helsinki (Finland); Soimakallio, Sampo, E-mail: sampo.soimakallio@vtt.fi [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O. Box 1000, 02044 VTT (Finland); Pingoud, Kim, E-mail: kim.pingoud@vtt.fi [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O. Box 1000, 02044 VTT (Finland)

    2012-11-15

    In this study, a simple, transparent and robust method is developed in which land-use change (LUC) emissions are retrospectively attributed to exported biomass products based on the agricultural area occupied for the production. LUC emissions account for approximately one-fifth of current greenhouse gas emissions. Increasing agricultural exports are becoming an important driver of deforestation. Brazil and Indonesia are used as case studies due to their significant deforestation in recent years. According to our study, in 2007, approximately 32% and 15% of the total agricultural land harvested and LUC emissions in Brazil and Indonesia respectively were due to exports. The most important exported single items with regard to deforestation were palm oil for Indonesia and bovine meat for Brazil. To reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions effectively worldwide, leakage of emissions should be avoided. This can be done, for example, by attributing embodied LUC emissions to exported biomass products. With the approach developed in this study, controversial attribution between direct and indirect LUC and amortization of emissions over the product life cycle can be overcome, as the method operates on an average basis and annual level. The approach could be considered in the context of the UNFCCC climate policy instead of, or alongside with, other instruments aimed at reducing deforestation. However, the quality of the data should be improved and some methodological issues, such as the allocation procedure in multiproduct systems and the possible dilution effect through third parties not committed to emission reduction targets, should be considered. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer CO{sub 2} emissions from land use changes are highly important. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Attribution of land use changes for products is difficult. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Simple and robust method is developed to attribute land use change emissions.

  8. Watershed response and land energy feedbacks under climate change depend upon groundwater.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maxwell, R M; Kollet, S J

    2008-06-10

    Human induced climate change will have a significant impact on the hydrologic cycle, creating changes in fresh water resources, land cover, and feedbacks that are difficult to characterize, which makes it an issue of global importance. Previous studies have not included subsurface storage in climate change simulations and feedbacks. A variably-saturated groundwater flow model with integrated overland flow and land surface model processes is used to examine the interplay between coupled water and energy processes under climate change conditions. A case study from the Southern Great Plains (SGP) USA, an important agricultural region that is susceptible to drought, is used as the basis for three scenarios simulations using a modified atmospheric forcing dataset to reflect predicted effects due to human-induced climate change. These scenarios include an increase in the atmospheric temperature and variations in rainfall amount and are compared to the present-day climate case. Changes in shallow soil saturation and groundwater levels are quantified as well as the corresponding energy fluxes at the land surface. Here we show that groundwater and subsurface lateral flow processes are critical in understanding hydrologic response and energy feedbacks to climate change and that certain regions are more susceptible to changes in temperature, while others to changes in precipitation. This groundwater control is critical for understanding recharge and drought processes, possible under future climate conditions.

  9. Effects of land use changes on streamflow generation in the Rhine basin

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Troch, Peter

    , afforestation. In this study, we investigate the effect of projected land use change scenarios on river at various spatial scales. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) (version 4.0.5) model is used, and infiltration capacity to decrease [Clark, 1987]. In addition, forests strongly affect snow accumulation

  10. Aircraft Landing Gear Thermo-Tribomechanical Model and Sensitivity Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aircraft Landing Gear Thermo-Tribomechanical Model and Sensitivity Study Laurent Heirendt and Hugh-tribomechanical response of an aircraft landing gear shock absorber is presented. Structural damage has been reported sources and sinks in the landing gear shock absorber is developed. The thermo-tribomechanical model

  11. Climate Change Mitigation Through Land-Use Measures in the Agriculture...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Climate Change Mitigation Through Land-Use Measures in the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Climate Change Mitigation...

  12. Quantifying the effect of land use and land cover changes on green water and blue water in northern part of China 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, X.; Ren, L.; Yuan, F.; Singh, V. P.; Fang, X.; Yu, Z.; Zhang, W.

    2009-06-12

    ) and runoff. The LULC data showed that from 1980 to 1996 grass land and water body had decreased and forest land and crop land had increased. This change caused the evaporation from vegetation interception and vegetation transpiration to increase, whereas...

  13. Vectorizing the Community Land Model (CLM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Vertenstein, Mariana [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Kitabata, Hideyuki [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Japan; White III, James B [ORNL

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we describe our extensive efforts to rewrite the Community Land Model (CLM) so that it provides good vector performance on the Earth Simulator in Japan and the Cray X1 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. We present the technical details of the old and new internal data structures, the required code reorganization, and the resulting performance improvements. We describe and compare the performance and scaling of the final CLM Version 3.0 (CLM3.0) on the IBM Power4, the Earth Simulator, and the Cray X1. At 64 processors, the performance of the model is similar on the IBM Power4, the Earth Simulator, and the Cray X1. However, the Cray X1 offers the best performance of all three platforms tested from 4 to 64 processors when OpenMP is used. Moreover, at low processor counts (16 or fewer), the model performs significantly better on the Cray X1 than on the other platforms. The vectorized version of CLM was publicly released by the National Center for Atmospheric Research as the standalone CLM3.0, as a part of the new Community Atmosphere Model Version 3.0 (CAM3.0), and as a component of the Community Climate System Model Version 3.0 (CCSM3.0) on June 23, 2004.

  14. Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Torn, Margaret S.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison M.; Chini, Louise M.; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter; Hurtt, George; Wise, Marshall A.

    2013-06-01

    Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standard RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 °C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCP’s, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.

  15. Governing Change: An Institutional Geography of Rural Land Use, Environmental Management, and Change in the North Coastal Basin of California

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Short, Anne Garrity

    2010-01-01

    Rurality." Progress in Human Geography, 30, Hansen, A. J. ,Exurban' Sierra." cultural geographies, 10, 469-491. Waters,Change: An Institutional Geography of Rural Land Use,

  16. UW Madison PhD position: land use change and biodiversity protection in Position Description

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Turner, Monica G.

    UW Madison PhD position: land use change and biodiversity protection in Russia Position Description change, and its effects on biodiversity in Russia. Russia has undergone dramatic changes in land use opportunities for biodiversity conservation. On the other hand, forest exports are rising, and harvesting rates

  17. Integrated Dynamic Gloabal Modeling of Land Use, Energy and Economic Growth

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Atul Jain, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL Brian O'Neill, NCAR, Boulder, CO

    2009-10-14

    The overall objective of this collaborative project is to integrate an existing general equilibrium energy-economic growth model with a biogeochemical cycles and biophysical models in order to more fully explore the potential contribution of land use-related activities to future emissions scenarios. Land cover and land use change activities, including deforestation, afforestation, and agriculture management, are important source of not only CO2, but also non-CO2 GHGs. Therefore, contribution of land-use emissions to total emissions of GHGs is important, and consequently their future trends are relevant to the estimation of climate change and its mitigation. This final report covers the full project period of the award, beginning May 2006, which includes a sub-contract to Brown University later transferred to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) when Co-PI Brian O'Neill changed institutional affiliations.

  18. Quantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land Use Change GHG Emissions

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Plenary V: Biofuels and Sustainability: Acknowledging Challenges and Confronting MisconceptionsQuantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land Use Change GHG EmissionsJennifer B....

  19. Global Soil Change: Land Use, Soil and Water SWS4231C, SWS5234

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ma, Lena

    Global Soil Change: Land Use, Soil and Water SWS4231C, SWS5234 Course Syllabus: Fall 2014 that can be found at: https://catalog

  20. A multilevel analysis of effects of land use policy on land-cover change and local land use decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wu, Jianguo "Jingle"

    2014 Available online Keywords: Desertification Household Multi-scale drivers Multilevel statistical (Reynolds et al., 2007). Land degradation, which is often referred to as desertification in drylands (Dregne

  1. A Global Land System Framework for Integrated Climate-Change Assessments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schlosser, C. Adam

    Land ecosystems play a major role in the global cycles of energy, water, carbon and nutrients. A Global Land System (GLS) framework has been developed for the Integrated Global Systems Model Version 2 (IGSM2) to simulate ...

  2. Economic and Physical Modeling of Land Use in GCAM 3.0 and an Application to Agricultural Productivity, Land, and Terrestrial Carbon

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wise, Marshall A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Edmonds, James A.

    2014-09-01

    We explore the impact of changes in agricultural productivity on global land use and terrestrial carbon using the new agriculture and land use modeling approach developed for Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. This approach models economic land use decisions with regional, physical, and technological specificity while maintaining economic and physical integration with the rest of the GCAM model. Physical land characteristics and quantities are tracked explicitly, and crop production practices are modeled discretely to facilitate coupling with physical models. Economic land allocation is modeled with non-linear functions in a market equilibrium rather than through a constrained optimization. In this paper, we explore three scenarios of future agriculture productivity in all regions of the globe over this century, ranging from a high growth to a zero growth level. The higher productivity growth scenario leads to lower crop prices, increased production of crops in developing nations, preservation of global forested lands and lower terrestrial carbon emissions. The scenario with no productivity improvement results in higher crop prices, an expansion of crop production in the developed world, loss of forested lands globally, and higher terrestrial carbon emissions.

  3. IDRISI Land Change Modeler | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIXsource History View NewGuam:on Openei | Open Energy2010) | OpenHywindIBEW6679 Jump

  4. Multiobjective calibration and sensitivity of a distributed land surface water and energy balance model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Houser, Paul R; Gupta, Hoshin V; Shuttleworth, W. James; Famiglietti, James S

    2001-01-01

    distributed land surface water and energy balance model Pauldistributed land surface water and energy balance model (because models of water and energy balance, Ph.D.

  5. Impact of modern climate change on the intercommunication: Global ocean-land (Northern Hemisphere)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lobanova, H.V.; Lobanov, V.A.; Stepanenko, S.R.

    1996-12-31

    Two main temperature gradients define the synoptic and climatic conditions on the earth in general: equator-pole gradient and ocean-land gradient. The analysis of temperature on the basis of new cyclic-different-scales conception has been fulfilled in every important part of the climatic system in the Northern Hemisphere for assessment of their vulnerability to modern climate change. Historical time series of monthly surface temperature have been used for this aim in the points of regular grid over the Northern Hemisphere from 1891 to 1992. The main feature of the temperature in main climatic parts of the earth is a complexity of its spatial structure. New methods of spatial decomposition have been developed for the division of this complex fields structure into characteristics of mean value of the field and index of its non-homogeneity or spatial variation. It has been established, that the temperature gradient between ocean and land is increasing that is characterized of the increasing of an intensity of synoptic processes, their spatial non-homogeneity and more frequent appearance of the extreme synoptic events. The models of intercommunications between coefficients of temperature spatial decomposition over the ocean and land have been developed for two time period and the increasing of the relationships closeness has been established between ocean and land as well as the decrease of main planet gradient: the pole(the Polar ocean)-equator.

  6. Impact of land use change on the local climate over the Tibetan Plateau

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jin, J.; Lu, S.; Li, S.; Miller, N.L.

    2010-04-01

    Observational data show that the remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) has a significant downward trend over the east Tibetan Plateau (TP), while a warming trend is found in the same area. Further analysis indicates that this warming trend mainly results from the nighttime warming. The Single-Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM) version 3.1 developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research is used to investigate the role of land use change in the TP local climate system and isolate the contribution of land use change to the warming. Two sets of SCAM simulations were performed at the Xinghai station that is located near the center of the TP Sanjiang (three rivers) Nature Reserve where the downward LAI trend is largest. These simulations were forced with the high and low LAIs. The modeling results indicate that, when the LAI changes from high to low, the daytime temperature has a slight decrease, while the nighttime temperature increases significantly, which is consistent with the observations. The modeling results further show that the lower surface roughness length plays a significant role in affecting the nighttime temperature increase.

  7. Evaluating runoff simulations from the Community Land Model 4.0 using observations from flux towers and a mountainous watershed

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Land Model (CLM) is the land component within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) (formerly known earth system model b

  8. Predicting Soil Erosion for Alternative Land Uses Erda Wang, Chang Xin,* Jimmy R. Williams, and Cheng Xu

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Predicting Soil Erosion for Alternative Land Uses Erda Wang, Chang Xin,* Jimmy R. Williams States was calibrated for northwestern China's conditions. The model was then used to investigate soil include runoff, RUSLE (Revised Uni- versal Soil Loss Equation) slope length and steepness factor, channel

  9. How emissions, climate, and land use change will impact mid-century air quality over the United States: a focus on effects at national parks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Val Martin, M.

    We use a global coupled chemistry–climate–land model (CESM) to assess the integrated effect of climate, emissions and land use changes on annual surface O[subscript 3] and PM[subscript 2.5] in the United States with a focus ...

  10. Changes in ecosystem services and runoff due to land use change in the watersheds of San Antonio, Texas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Harris, Heather Grace

    2000-01-01

    service valuation model to each of the land use classes over the discreet time periods. Hydrologic peak flow models using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number Method were developed and applied to each watershed for each discreet time period...

  11. Soil carbon sequestration and land-use change: processes and potential

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Soil carbon sequestration and land-use change: processes and potential W . M . P O S T * and K . C to perennial vegetation, soil organic carbon can accumulate. This accumulation process essentially reverses some of the effects respon- sible for soil organic carbon losses from when the land was converted from

  12. Simulated watershed responses to land cover changes using the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tarboton, David

    Simulated watershed responses to land cover changes using the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation Old Main Hill, Logan, UT, 84322-8200, USA Abstract: In this work, we used the Regional Hydro

  13. On linking an Earth system model to the equilibrium carbon representation of an economically optimizing land use model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Calvin, Katherine V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Mao, Jiafu; Patel, Pralit L.; Shi, Xiaoying; Thomson, Allison M.; Thornton, Peter E.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2014-01-01

    Human activities are significantly altering biogeochemical cycles at the global scale, posing a significant problem for earth system models (ESMs), which may incorporate static land-use change inputs but do not actively simulate policy or economic forces. One option to address this problem is a to couple an ESM with an economically oriented integrated assessment model. Here we have implemented and tested a coupling mechanism between the carbon cycles of an ESM (CLM) and an integrated assessment (GCAM) model, examining the best proxy variables to share between the models, and quantifying our ability to distinguish climate- and land-use-driven flux changes. CLM’s net primary production and heterotrophic respiration outputs were found to be the most robust proxy variables by which to manipulate GCAM’s assumptions of long-term ecosystem steady state carbon, with short-term forest production strongly correlated with long-term biomass changes in climate-change model runs. By leveraging the fact that carbon-cycle effects of anthropogenic land-use change are short-term and spatially limited relative to widely distributed climate effects, we were able to distinguish these effects successfully in the model coupling, passing only the latter to GCAM. By allowing climate effects from a full earth system model to dynamically modulate the economic and policy decisions of an integrated assessment model, this work provides a foundation for linking these models in a robust and flexible framework capable of examining two-way interactions between human and earth system processes.

  14. Managing United States Public Lands in Response to Climate Change: A View From the Ground Up

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neff, Jason

    Managing United States Public Lands in Response to Climate Change: A View From the Ground Up and resource managers, it is not yet clear how issues related to climate change will be incorporated into on in which climate change or carbon management may intersect other use goals: forests, biofuels, and grazing

  15. ModelingLandBiogeochemistry Term Spring 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ma, Lena

    of Earth system models and serve to represent exchange of energy (heat radiation momentum), water, carbon

  16. Modeling the interaction between land surface and groundwater

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nebraska-Lincoln, University of

    Modeling the interaction between land surface and groundwater Geng-Xin Ou Xun-Hong Chen School-ground water models Irrigation efficiency Materials and methods Development of SGWM #12;Background Groundwater in Nebraska. #12;Background Groundwater in Nebraska. decline 100 ft by 1980, 40 ft by 1999; 87% population

  17. GCAM Bioenergy and Land Use Modeling

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Leon Clarke. 2013. "Can radiative forcing be limited to 2.6 Wm-2 without negative emissions from bioenergy and CO2 capture and storage?" Climatic Change. Special Issue on...

  18. Integrated Assessment Modeling of Carbon Sequestration and Land Use Emissions Using Detailed Model Results and Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dr. Atul Jain

    2005-04-17

    This report outlines the progress on the development and application of Integrated Assessment Modeling of Carbon Sequestrations and Land Use Emissions supported by the DOE Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER), U.S. Department of Energy, Grant No. DOE-DE-FG02-01ER63069. The overall objective of this collaborative project between the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was to unite the latest advances in carbon cycle research with scientifically based models and policy-related integrated assessment tools that incorporate computationally efficient representations of the latest knowledge concerning science and emission trajectories, and their policy implications. As part of this research we accomplished the following tasks that we originally proposed: (1) In coordination with LLNL and ORNL, we enhanced the Integrated Science Assessment Model's (ISAM) parametric representation of the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycles that better represent spatial and seasonal variations, which are important to study the mechanisms that influence carbon sequestration in the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems; (2) Using the MiniCAM modeling capability, we revised the SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios; IPCC, 2000) land use emission scenarios; and (3) On the application front, the enhanced version of ISAM modeling capability is applied to understand how short- and long-term natural carbon fluxes, carbon sequestration, and human emissions contribute to the net global emissions (concentrations) trajectories required to reach various concentration (emission) targets. Under this grant, 21 research publications were produced. In addition, this grant supported a number of graduate and undergraduate students whose fundamental research was to learn a disciplinary field in climate change (e.g., ecological dynamics and ocean circulations) and then complete research on how this field could be linked to the other factors we need to consider in its dynamics (e.g., land use, ocean and terrestrial carbon sequestration and climate change).

  19. Water balance in the amazon basin from a land surface model ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2014-01-01

    land surface and Earth system models. J. Hydro- meteor. ,of the Community Earth System Model (CESM; Vertenstein et

  20. From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Di Vittorio, Alan; Chini, Louise M.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Truesdale, John E.; Craig, Anthony P.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Hurtt, George; Thornton, Peter E.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-11-27

    Climate projections depend on scenarios of fossil fuel emissions and land use change, and the IPCC AR5 parallel process assumes consistent climate scenarios across Integrated Assessment and Earth System Models (IAMs and ESMs). To facilitate consistency, CMIP5 used a novel land use harmonization to provide ESMs with seamless, 1500-2100 land use trajectories generated by historical data and four IAMs. However, we have identified and partially addressed a major gap in the CMIP5 land coupling design. The CMIP5 Community ESM (CESM) global afforestation is only 22% of RCP4.5 afforestation from 2005 to 2100. Likewise, only 17% of the Global Change Assessment Model’s (GCAM’s) 2040 RCP4.5 afforestation signal, and none of the pasture loss, were transmitted to CESM within a newly integrated model. This is a critical problem because afforestation is necessary for achieving the RCP4.5 climate stabilization. We attempted to rectify this problem by modifying only the ESM component of the integrated model, enabling CESM to simulate 66% of GCAM’s afforestation in 2040, and 94% of GCAM’s pasture loss as grassland and shrubland losses. This additional afforestation increases vegetation carbon gain by 19 PgC and decreases atmospheric CO2 gain by 8 ppmv from 2005 to 2040, implying different climate scenarios between CMIP5 GCAM and CESM. Similar inconsistencies likely exist in other CMIP5 model results, primarily because land cover information is not shared between models, with possible contributions from afforestation exceeding model-specific, potentially viable forest area. Further work to harmonize land cover among models will be required to adequately rectify this problem.

  1. Baselines For Land-Use Change In The Tropics: Application To Avoided Deforestation Projects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2007-01-01

    in Mexico: making carbon sequestration a by-product ofthe area of the pilot carbon sequestration projects in theseLUCS = Land Use and Carbon Sequestration model, and GEOMOD =

  2. HOW THE BIOECONOMY COULD CHANGE LAND OWNERSHIP AND Mike Duffy1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Duffy, Michael D.

    HOW THE BIOECONOMY COULD CHANGE LAND OWNERSHIP AND VALUES Mike Duffy1 Agriculture is undergoing a fundamental change based on the move toward a bioeconomy. Currently the bioeconomy consists primarily of fuels stages of development. The bioeconomy has been described as "nothing less than a revolution in the way

  3. Simulating land use change in China from a global perspective

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Palmer, Paul

    drivers of population growth and socio-economic development to agricultural yield changes and alternative productivity and stable relationships with global food suppliers are important determinants of food security

  4. Cumulative Effects of Rapid Land-Cover and Land-Use Changes on the Yamal

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bhatt, Uma

    in the Bovanenkovo gas field, Yamal Peninsula, Russia. The presence of the gas field provides both economic, Russia Donald A. Walker, Bruce C. Forbes, Marina O. Leibman, Howard E. Epstein, Uma S. Bhatt, Josefino C to a combination of gas development, reindeer herding, and climate change. Unusual geological condi- tions

  5. Coupling the high-complexity land surface model ACASA to the mesoscale model WRF

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pyles, R. D.

    In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is coupled with the Advanced Canopy–Atmosphere–Soil Algorithm (ACASA), a high-complexity land surface model. Although WRF is a state-of-the-art regional ...

  6. Coupling the High Complexity Land Surface Model ACASA to the Mesoscale Model WRF

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xu, L.

    In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is coupled with the Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil Algorithm (ACASA), a high complexity land surface model. Although WRF is a state-of-the-art regional ...

  7. Impact of Agricultural Practice on Regional Climate in a CoupledLand Surface Mesoscale Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooley, H.S.; Riley, W.J.; Torn, M.S.; He, Y.

    2004-07-01

    The land surface has been shown to form strong feedbacks with climate due to linkages between atmospheric conditions and terrestrial ecosystem exchanges of energy, momentum, water, and trace gases. Although often ignored in modeling studies, land management itself may form significant feedbacks. Because crops are harvested earlier under drier conditions, regional air temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture, for example, affect harvest timing, particularly of rain-fed crops. This removal of vegetation alters the land surface characteristics and may, in turn, affect regional climate. We applied a coupled climate(MM5) and land-surface (LSM1) model to examine the effects of early and late winter wheat harvest on regional climate in the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility in the Southern Great Plains, where winter wheat accounts for 20 percent of the land area. Within the winter wheat region, simulated 2 m air temperature was 1.3 C warmer in the Early Harvest scenario at mid-day averaged over the two weeks following harvest. Soils in the harvested area were drier and warmer in the top 10 cm and wetter in the 10-20 cm layer. Midday soils were 2.5 C warmer in the harvested area at mid-day averaged over the two weeks following harvest. Harvest also dramatically altered latent and sensible heat fluxes. Although differences between scenarios diminished once both scenarios were harvested, the short-term impacts of land management on climate were comparable to those from land cover change demonstrated in other studies.

  8. From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations Climate projections depend on scenarios of fossil fuel emissions and land use change, and...

  9. Coupling GIS and LCA for biodiversity assessments of land use: Part 1: Inventory modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Geyer, Roland; Stoms, David M.; Lindner, Jan P.; Davis, Frank W.; Wittstock, Bastian

    2010-01-01

    scenarios were developed with GIS modeling. Current land use0170-9 LAND USE IN LCA Coupling GIS and LCA for biodiversityGeographic information systems (GIS) are adept at modeling

  10. Risk Analysis for Water Resources Under Climate Change, Population Growth, and Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kiparsky, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Vulnerability from climate change acid population growth."2004). "Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts onthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). J. J.

  11. Hydraulic Effects of Changes in Bottom-Land Vegetation on Three

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hydraulic Effects of Changes in Bottom-Land Vegetation on Three Major Floods, Gila RiverKelvey, Director Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Burkham, D. E. 1927 Hydraulic effects 19.16:655-J 1. Gila River-Floods. 2. Hydraulics. 3. Botany-Ecology-Gila River. 1. Title: Hydraulic

  12. The impact of land use change on migrant birds in the Sahel

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adams, William M.; Small, Robert D. S.; Vickery, Juliet A.

    2014-07-17

    and grazing reserves have been subject to more intensive use (both legal and illegal). The extent of Sahelian wetlands has been reduced by the construction of dams for hydro power and irrigation. The spatial patterns of land use change and the associated...

  13. Atmospheric aerosols in Amazonia and land use change: from natural biogenic to biomass

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Atmospheric aerosols in Amazonia and land use change: from natural biogenic to biomass burning in Central Amazonia (TT34 North of Manaus) and at a heavily biomass burning impacted site in south-refractory PM1 aerosol loading at TT34, while biomass burning aerosols at PVH shows a 93% content of organic

  14. Impacts of land use change due to biofuel crops on carbon balance, bioenergy production, and agricultural

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhuang, Qianlai

    Impacts of land use change due to biofuel crops on carbon balance, bioenergy production that biofuel crops have much higher net pri- mary production (NPP) than soybean and wheat crops. When food). Global biofuel production has increased dramatically in the last decade, especially in United States

  15. Land Cover Change of Louisiana and Mississippi produced by Hurricane Katrina

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilbes, Fernando

    Land Cover Change of Louisiana and Mississippi produced by Hurricane Katrina WILMA N. PABÓN RAMÍREZ of the strongest and most devastating hurricanes in the history of the United States: the hurricane Katrina. INTRODUCTION Hurricane Katrina is the sixth strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded and is the third

  16. Energy and greenhouse gas emission effects of corn and cellulosic ethanol with technology improvements and land use changes.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, M.; Han, J.; Haq, Z; Tyner, .W.; Wu, M.; Elgowainy, A.

    2011-05-01

    Use of ethanol as a transportation fuel in the United States has grown from 76 dam{sup 3} in 1980 to over 40.1 hm{sup 3} in 2009 - and virtually all of it has been produced from corn. It has been debated whether using corn ethanol results in any energy and greenhouse gas benefits. This issue has been especially critical in the past several years, when indirect effects, such as indirect land use changes, associated with U.S. corn ethanol production are considered in evaluation. In the past three years, modeling of direct and indirect land use changes related to the production of corn ethanol has advanced significantly. Meanwhile, technology improvements in key stages of the ethanol life cycle (such as corn farming and ethanol production) have been made. With updated simulation results of direct and indirect land use changes and observed technology improvements in the past several years, we conducted a life-cycle analysis of ethanol and show that at present and in the near future, using corn ethanol reduces greenhouse gas emission by more than 20%, relative to those of petroleum gasoline. On the other hand, second-generation ethanol could achieve much higher reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. In a broader sense, sound evaluation of U.S. biofuel policies should account for both unanticipated consequences and technology potentials. We maintain that the usefulness of such evaluations is to provide insight into how to prevent unanticipated consequences and how to promote efficient technologies with policy intervention.

  17. Increased sediment loads over coral reefs in Saint Lucia in relation to land use change in contributing watersheds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lajeunesse, Marc J.

    Increased sediment loads over coral reefs in Saint Lucia in relation to land use change Article history: Available online a b s t r a c t Increased sedimentation is widely acknowledged records of changes in sediment accumu- lation rates over reefs as well as a quantitative link between land

  18. A resource complex for Sandy Neck Beach : an exploration in building on an ever-changing land

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Solarz, Cynthia L. (Cynthia Lynne)

    1987-01-01

    This thesis is an exploration into a spit of land, called Sandy Neck Beach on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. It is a barrier beach system which is experiencing many changes. These changes are manifest not only in its physical ...

  19. NUMERICAL MODEL FOR LAND SUBSIDENCE IN SHALLOW GROUNDWATER SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Narasimhan, T.N.

    2010-01-01

    and R. L. Klausing, 1969, Land subsidence due to groundwater7612-10874 Fig. S. Land subsidence at Pixley, California:Symposium on Land Subsidence, Anaheim, CA, December 10-

  20. Land cover change and remote sensing: Examples of quantifying spatiotemporal dynamics in tropical forests

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Krummel, J.R.; Su, Haiping; Fox, J.; Yarnasan, S.; Ekasingh, M.

    1995-06-01

    Research on human impacts or natural processes that operate over broad geographic areas must explicitly address issues of scale and spatial heterogeneity. While the tropical forests of Southeast Asia and Mexico have been occupied and used to meet human needs for thousands of years, traditional forest management systems are currently being transformed by rapid and far-reaching demographic, political, economic, and environmental changes. The dynamics of population growth, migration into the remaining frontiers, and responses to national and international market forces result in a demand for land to produce food and fiber. These results illustrate some of the mechanisms that drive current land use changes, especially in the tropical forest frontiers. By linking the outcome of individual land use decisions and measures of landscape fragmentation and change, the aggregated results shows the hierarchy of temporal and spatial events that in summation result in global changes to the most complex and sensitive biome -- tropical forests. By quantifying the spatial and temporal patterns of tropical forest change, researchers can assist policy makers by showing how landscape systems in these tropical forests are controlled by physical, biological, social, and economic parameters.

  1. Risk Analysis for Water Resources Under Climate Change, Population Growth, and Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kiparsky, Michael

    2010-01-01

    for California." Climatic Change 76(3-4): 361-387. Thompsonrisk assessments." Climatic Change 89(3): 371-394. Brekke,small forecast ensembles." Climatic Change 76(1-2): 149-168.

  2. Transtheoretical Model of Change with couples 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schneider, William Joel

    2004-09-30

    The Transtheoretical Model of Change is intended to be a general model of change that can be applied to many populations and domains of change. However, most of the studies that have investigated this model have focused ...

  3. Precipitation response to land subsurface hydrologic processes in atmospheric general circulation model simulations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lo, Min-Hui; Famiglietti, James S

    2011-01-01

    LO AND FAMIGLIETTI: PRECIPITATION RESPONSE TO LAND PROCESSES2006), Regional tropical precipitation change mechanisms inrobustness of tropical precipitation asymmetry, J. Clim. ,

  4. Modeling Engineering Change Management Process in Virtual

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Akgunduz, Ali

    Modeling Engineering Change Management Process in Virtual Collaborative Design Environments Change Management - surveys and reviews - industrial case studies - tools & solutions (scarce) - change

  5. Streptophyte Algae and the Origin of Land Plants Revisited Using Heterogeneous Models with Three New Algal

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Davis, Charles

    Letter Streptophyte Algae and the Origin of Land Plants Revisited Using Heterogeneous Models algae, but different lineages of streptophytes have been suggested to be the sister group of land plants chloroplast genomes from streptophyte algae: Coleochaetae orbicularis (Coleochaetales), Nitella hookeri

  6. Aircraft landing gear greased slider bearing steady-state thermo-elastohydrodynamic concept model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to take place at the lower bearing­piston sliding interface of the main landing gear (MLG) (see Fig. 1Aircraft landing gear greased slider bearing steady-state thermo-elastohydrodynamic concept model for studying the thermal behavior of a greased aircraft landing gear lower slider bearing. Structural damage

  7. Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979-2012 : impact of climate and land use changes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stavrakou, T.; Muller, J. F.; Bauwens, M.; De Smedt, I.; Roozendael, Van M.; Guenther, Alex B.; Wild, M.; Xia, X.

    2014-05-12

    Due to the scarcity of observational constraints and the rapidly changing environment in East and Southeast Asia, isoprene emissions predicted by models are expected to bear substantial uncertainties. The aim of this study is to improve upon the existing bottom-up estimates, and investigate the temporal evolution of the fluxes in Asia over 1979-2012. To this purpose, we calculate the hourly emissions at 0.5% ×0.5% resolution using the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim climatology. This study incorporates (i) changes in land use, including the rapid expansion of oil palms, (ii) meteorological variability according to ERA-Interim, (iii) long-term changes in solar radiation (dimming/brightening) constrained by surface network radiation measurements,and (iv) recent experimental evidence that South Asian tropical forests are much weaker isoprene emitters than previously assumed, and on the other hand, that oil palms hold a strong isoprene emission capacity. These effects lead to a significant lowering (factor of two) in the total isoprene fluxes over the studied domain, and to emission reductions reaching a factor of 3.5 in Southeast Asia. The bottom-up annual isoprene emissions for 2005 are estimated at 7.0, 4.8, 8.3, 2.9 Tg in China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively. Changes in temperature and solar radiation are the major drivers of the interannual variability and trend in the emissions. An annual positive flux trend of 0.2% and 0.52% is found in Asia and China, respectively, through the entire period, related to positive trend in temperature and solar radiation. The impact of oil palm expansion in Indonesia and Malaysia is to enhance the trends over that region, e.g. from 1.17% to 1.5% in 1979-2005 in Malaysia. A negative emission trend is derived in India (?0.4 %), owing to the negative trend in solar radiation data associated to the strong dimming effect likely due to increasing aerosol loadings. The bottom-up emissions are evaluated using top-down isoprene emission estimates derived from inverse modelling constrained by GOME-2/MetOp-A formaldehyde columns through 2007-2012. The satellite-based estimates appear to support our assumptions, and confirm the lower emission rate in tropical forests of Indonesia and Malaysia. Additional flux measurements are clearly needed to better characterize the spatial variability of emission factors. Finally, a decreasing trend in the top-down Chinese emissions inferred after 2007, is in line with the cooling episode recorded in China after that year, thus suggesting that the satellite HCHO columns are able to capture climate-induced changes in emissions.

  8. U.S. Geological Survey Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy--A Framework for Understanding

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    U.S. Geological Survey Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy--A Framework for Understanding. Clockwise left to right: Landsat 7 image of circular patterns in crop land near Garden City, Kansas, spring 2012. Photograph by Jerrod Wheeler, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Crop irrigation, South Dakota

  9. Probabilistic Modeling of Settlement Risk at Land Disposal Facilities - 12304

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Foye, Kevin C.; Soong, Te-Yang

    2012-07-01

    The long-term reliability of land disposal facility final cover systems - and therefore the overall waste containment - depends on the distortions imposed on these systems by differential settlement/subsidence. The evaluation of differential settlement is challenging because of the heterogeneity of the waste mass (caused by inconsistent compaction, void space distribution, debris-soil mix ratio, waste material stiffness, time-dependent primary compression of the fine-grained soil matrix, long-term creep settlement of the soil matrix and the debris, etc.) at most land disposal facilities. Deterministic approaches to long-term final cover settlement prediction are not able to capture the spatial variability in the waste mass and sub-grade properties which control differential settlement. An alternative, probabilistic solution is to use random fields to model the waste and sub-grade properties. The modeling effort informs the design, construction, operation, and maintenance of land disposal facilities. A probabilistic method to establish design criteria for waste placement and compaction is introduced using the model. Random fields are ideally suited to problems of differential settlement modeling of highly heterogeneous foundations, such as waste. Random fields model the seemingly random spatial distribution of a design parameter, such as compressibility. When used for design, the use of these models prompts the need for probabilistic design criteria. It also allows for a statistical approach to waste placement acceptance criteria. An example design evaluation was performed, illustrating the use of the probabilistic differential settlement simulation methodology to assemble a design guidance chart. The purpose of this design evaluation is to enable the designer to select optimal initial combinations of design slopes and quality control acceptance criteria that yield an acceptable proportion of post-settlement slopes meeting some design minimum. For this specific example, relative density, which can be determined through field measurements, was selected as the field quality control parameter for waste placement. This technique can be extended to include a rigorous performance-based methodology using other parameters (void space criteria, debris-soil mix ratio, pre-loading, etc.). As shown in this example, each parameter range, or sets of parameter ranges can be selected such that they can result in an acceptable, long-term differential settlement according to the probabilistic model. The methodology can also be used to re-evaluate the long-term differential settlement behavior at closed land disposal facilities to identify, if any, problematic facilities so that remedial action (e.g., reinforcement of upper and intermediate waste layers) can be implemented. Considering the inherent spatial variability in waste and earth materials and the need for engineers to apply sound quantitative practices to engineering analysis, it is important to apply the available probabilistic techniques to problems of differential settlement. One such method to implement probability-based differential settlement analyses for the design of landfill final covers has been presented. The design evaluation technique presented is one tool to bridge the gap from deterministic practice to probabilistic practice. (authors)

  10. CHANGE PROCESS MODELLING USING THE EKD-CHANGE MANAGEMENT METHOD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    CHANGE PROCESS MODELLING USING THE EKD-CHANGE MANAGEMENT METHOD S. Nurcan* , J. Barrios*1 , G The Enterprise Knowledge Development - Change Management Method (EKD-CMM) provides a systematic way to organise and to guide the organisational change management. The EKD-CMM road map, implemented in the electronic guide

  11. Bayesian Calibration of the Community Land Model using Surrogates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Sargsyan, K.; Swiler, Laura P.

    2015-01-01

    We present results from the Bayesian calibration of hydrological parameters of the Community Land Model (CLM), which is often used in climate simulations and Earth system models. A statistical inverse problem is formulated for three hydrological parameters, conditioned on observations of latent heat surface fluxes over 48 months. Our calibration method uses polynomial and Gaussian process surrogates of the CLM, and solves the parameter estimation problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. Posterior probability densities for the parameters are developed for two sites with different soil and vegetation covers. Our method also allows us to examine the structural error in CLM under two error models. We find that accurate surrogate models can be created for CLM in most cases. The posterior distributions lead to better prediction than the default parameter values in CLM. Climatologically averaging the observations does not modify the parameters’ distributions significantly. The structural error model reveals a correlation time-scale which can potentially be used to identify physical processes that could be contributing to it. While the calibrated CLM has a higher predictive skill, the calibration is under-dispersive.

  12. Bayesian calibration of the Community Land Model using surrogates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Swiler, Laura Painton

    2014-02-01

    We present results from the Bayesian calibration of hydrological parameters of the Community Land Model (CLM), which is often used in climate simulations and Earth system models. A statistical inverse problem is formulated for three hydrological parameters, conditional on observations of latent heat surface fluxes over 48 months. Our calibration method uses polynomial and Gaussian process surrogates of the CLM, and solves the parameter estimation problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. Posterior probability densities for the parameters are developed for two sites with different soil and vegetation covers. Our method also allows us to examine the structural error in CLM under two error models. We find that surrogate models can be created for CLM in most cases. The posterior distributions are more predictive than the default parameter values in CLM. Climatologically averaging the observations does not modify the parameters' distributions significantly. The structural error model reveals a correlation time-scale which can be used to identify the physical process that could be contributing to it. While the calibrated CLM has a higher predictive skill, the calibration is under-dispersive.

  13. Snow process modeling in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robock, Alan

    Snow process modeling in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS): 1. Evaluation of model-simulated snow cover extent Justin Sheffield,1 Ming Pan,1 Eric F. Wood,1 Kenneth E. Mitchell,2) and consists of two parts: (1) assessment of land surface model simulations of snow cover extent and (2

  14. Simulating crop phenology in the Community Land Model and its impact on energy and carbon fluxes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Minnesota, University of

    , regional, and global scales. However, the evaluation of crop models that can be coupled to Earth system al., 2012; Levis et al., 2012]. Since CLM is part of the Earth system model framework management are required. The Community Land Model (CLM) is the land surface scheme of the Community Earth

  15. An update on modeling land-ice/ocean interactions in CESM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Asay-davis, Xylar

    2011-01-24

    This talk is an update on ongoing land-ice/ocean coupling work within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The coupling method is designed to allow simulation of a fully dynamic ice/ocean interface, while requiring minimal modification to the existing ocean model (the Parallel Ocean Program, POP). The method makes use of an immersed boundary method (IBM) to represent the geometry of the ice-ocean interface without requiring that the computational grid be modified in time. We show many of the remaining development challenges that need to be addressed in order to perform global, century long climate runs with fully coupled ocean and ice sheet models. These challenges include moving to a new grid where the computational pole is no longer at the true south pole and several changes to the coupler (the software tool used to communicate between model components) to allow the boundary between land and ocean to vary in time. We discuss benefits for ice/ocean coupling that would be gained from longer-term ocean model development to allow for natural salt fluxes (which conserve both water and salt mass, rather than water volume).

  16. Risk Analysis for Water Resources Under Climate Change, Population Growth, and Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kiparsky, Michael

    2010-01-01

    scale. Thus, analysis of flood risk, sub-monthly instream-on water supply risk, and does not address flood risk.water resources modeling, flood risk and water supply risk

  17. ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' scientific report ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' Team

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' scientific report ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' Team : 1995/1996 Scientific Report February 1997 CERFACS ACTIVITY REPORT 1 #12; Contents 1 Climate Modelling) : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 6 2.2 Anthropogenic climate change studies: scenario experiments (96) : : : : : : : : : 7 2

  18. Climate Models and Climate Change Guillaume Mauger

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Climate Models and Climate Change Guillaume Mauger gmauger@uw.edu Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Outline: · Climate Change 101 · Why do we care? · Climate models: · About, UncertainDes, Performance, and Projec

  19. Analytic solutions for the land temperature in an Earth system model of intermediate Mark Williamson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Williamson, Mark

    Analytic solutions for the land temperature in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity the Earth system in high levels of spatial and/or temporal resolu- tion and the processes that they model. Analytic solutions for the temporal evolution of the land temperature are obtained for an Earth system

  20. Bioenergy crop productivity and potential climate change mitigation from marginal lands in the United States: An

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhuang, Qianlai

    ŔChampaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA Abstract Growing biomass feedstocks from marginal lands is becoming an increasingly

  1. Impact of Agricultural Practice on Regional Climate in a Coupled Land Surface Mesoscale Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cooley, H.S.; Riley, W.J.; Torn, M.S.; He, Y.

    2004-01-01

    winter wheat belt on the mesoscale environment, Monthlygeneration Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5), NCAR,in a Coupled Land Surface Mesoscale Model H.S. Cooley Energy

  2. Climate Models from the Joint Global Change Research Institute

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Staff at the Joint Institute develop and use models to simulate the economic and physical impacts of global change policy options. The GCAM, for example, gives analysts insight into how regional and national economies might respond to climate change mitigation policies including carbon taxes, carbon trading, and accelerated deployment of energy technology. Three available models are Phoenix, GCAM, and EPIC. Phoenix is a global, dynamic recursive, computable general equilibrium model that is solved in five-year time steps from 2005 through 2100 and divides the world into twenty-four regions. Each region includes twenty-six industrial sectors. Particular attention is paid to energy production in Phoenix. There are nine electricity-generating technologies (coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal) and four additional energy commodities: crude oil, refined oil products, coal, and natural gas. Phoenix is designed to answer economic questions related to international climate and energy policy and international trade. Phoenix replaces the Second Generation Model (SGM) that was formerly used for general equilibrium analysis at JGCRI. GCAM is the Global Change Assessment Model, a partial equilibrium model of the world with 14 regions. GCAM operates in 5 year time steps from 1990 to 2095 and is designed to examine long-term changes in the coupled energy, agriculture/land-use, and climate system. GCAM includes a 151-region agriculture land-use module and a reduced form carbon cycle and climate module in addition to its incorporation of demographics, resources, energy production and consumption. The model has been used extensively in a number of assessment and modeling activities such as the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and IPCC assessment reports. GCAM is now freely available as a community model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) Model is a process-based agricultural systems model composed of simulation components for weather, hydrology, nutrient cycling, pesticide fate, tillage, crop growth, soil erosion, crop and soil management and economics. Staff at PNNL have been involved in the development of this model by integrating new sub-models for soil carbon dynamics and nitrogen cycling.

  3. A Physically Based Runoff Routing Model for Land Surface and Earth System Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Hongyi; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Wu, Huan; Huang, Maoyi; Ke, Yinghai; Coleman, Andre M.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-06-13

    A new physically based runoff routing model, called the Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART), has been developed to be applicable across local, regional, and global scales. Within each spatial unit, surface runoff is first routed across hillslopes and then discharged along with subsurface runoff into a ‘‘tributary subnetwork’’ before entering the main channel. The spatial units are thus linked via routing through the main channel network, which is constructed in a scale-consistent way across different spatial resolutions. All model parameters are physically based, and only a small subset requires calibration.MOSART has been applied to the Columbia River basin at 1/ 168, 1/ 88, 1/ 48, and 1/ 28 spatial resolutions and was evaluated using naturalized or observed streamflow at a number of gauge stations. MOSART is compared to two other routing models widely used with land surface models, the River Transport Model (RTM) in the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Lohmann routing model, included as a postprocessor in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model package, yielding consistent performance at multiple resolutions. MOSART is further evaluated using the channel velocities derived from field measurements or a hydraulic model at various locations and is shown to be capable of producing the seasonal variation and magnitude of channel velocities reasonably well at different resolutions. Moreover, the impacts of spatial resolution on model simulations are systematically examined at local and regional scales. Finally, the limitations ofMOSART and future directions for improvements are discussed.

  4. Present and Future of Modeling Global Environmental Change: Toward Integrated Modeling, Eds., T. Matsuno and H. Kida, pp. 145172.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Moorcroft, Paul R.

    145 Present and Future of Modeling Global Environmental Change: Toward Integrated Modeling, Eds., T, NH 03824, U.S.A. Abstract--Here we examine the cause, size and future of the U.S. carbon sink.4%, with the remainder due to land use. To forecast the future of the U.S. carbon sink, we used the Ecosystem Demography

  5. Representing northern peatland microtopography and hydrology within the Community Land Model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Shi, X.; Thornton, P. E.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Hanson, P. J.; Mao, J.; Sebestyen, S. D.; Griffiths, N. A.; Bisht, G.

    2015-02-20

    Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth for a vegetated wetland, independent of prescribed regional water tables. We introduce here a new configuration of the Community Land Model (CLM) which includes a fully prognostic water table calculation for a vegetated peatland. Our structural and process changes to CLM focus on modifications needed to representmore »the hydrologic cycle of bogs environment with perched water tables, as well as distinct hydrologic dynamics and vegetation communities of the raised hummock and sunken hollow microtopography characteristic of peatland bogs. The modified model was parameterized and independently evaluated against observations from an ombrotrophic raised-dome bog in northern Minnesota (S1-Bog), the site for the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change experiment (SPRUCE). Simulated water table levels compared well with site-level observations. The new model predicts significant hydrologic changes in response to planned warming at the SPRUCE site. At present, standing water is commonly observed in bog hollows after large rainfall events during the growing season, but simulations suggest a sharp decrease in water table levels due to increased evapotranspiration under the most extreme warming level, nearly eliminating the occurrence of standing water in the growing season. Simulated soil energy balance was strongly influenced by reduced winter snowpack under warming simulations, with the warming influence on soil temperature partly offset by the loss of insulating snowpack in early and late winter. The new model provides improved predictive capacity for seasonal hydrological dynamics in northern peatlands, and provides a useful foundation for investigation of northern peatland carbon exchange.« less

  6. Modeling Field-level Irrigation Demands with Changing Weather and Crop Choices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MardanDoost, Babak

    2015-05-31

    . The presented water budget model is capable of estimate daily water demand over space and time under predicted climate and land-use change. The model-predicted irrigation demand was developed based on crop-specific evapotranspiration, weather data, and with 2007...

  7. Governing Change: An Institutional Geography of Rural Land Use, Environmental Management, and Change in the North Coastal Basin of California

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Short, Anne Garrity

    2010-01-01

    areas, • Deposit construction waste away from streams, •on their land: deposit construction waste away from streams,to stable areas Deposit construction waste away from streams

  8. A new GIS toolbox for integrating massive heterogeneous GIS data for land use change analysis A new GIS toolbox for integrating

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Köbben, Barend

    statistical analysis, we summarize impacts of increased biogas production on agricultural land use change highlighting the trend in biogas maize cultivation and the conversion of permanent grass- land to agricultural, environmental impacts, biogas maize, permanent grassland, Germany. 1. Introduction Agricultural land use

  9. Downscaling Global Land Cover Projections from an Integrated Assessment Model for Use in Regional Analyses: Results and Evaluation for the US from 2005 to 2095

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    West, Tristram O.; Le Page, Yannick LB; Huang, Maoyi; Wolf, Julie; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-06-05

    Projections of land cover change generated from Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and other economic-based models can be applied for analyses of environmental impacts at subregional and landscape scales. For those IAM and economic models that project land use at the sub-continental or regional scale, these projections must be downscaled and spatially distributed prior to use in climate or ecosystem models. Downscaling efforts to date have been conducted at the national extent with relatively high spatial resolution (30m) and at the global extent with relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.5 degree).

  10. Cumulative soil chemistry changes from land application of saline-sodic waters

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ganjegunte, G.K.; King, L.A.; Vance, G.F. [University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States). Department for Renewable Resources

    2008-09-15

    Management of large volumes (60,000 ha-m) of co-production water associated with coal bed natural gas (CBNG) water extraction is a potential concern in the Powder River Basin (PRB) of Wyoming and Montana due to elevated water salinity and sodicity levels. Land application of saline-sodic CBNG water is a common water management method being practiced in the PRB, which can result in deterioration in soil quality. The objective of this study was to evaluate effects from 1 to 4 yr of land application with CBNG water on soil chemical properties at six study sites (fine to loamy, mixed to smectitic, mesic, Ustic Ardisols and Entisols) in the Wyoming PRB region. Changes in chemistry of soils collected from six depths irrigated with CBNG water were compared with representative non-irrigated soils. Applications of CBNG water significantly increased soil EC, SAR, and ESP values (up to 21, 74, and 24 times, respectively) compared with non-irrigated soils. Differences in soil chemical properties between an irrigated and non-irrigated coarse-textured soil were less than that of fine-textured soils, emphasizing texture as an important factor for salinity buildup. Pretreatment of CBNG water using a sulfur burner and application of gypsum and elemental S soil amendments reduced soil pH but did not prevent the build-up of salts and sodium. Study results suggest that current CBNG water management strategies are not as effective as projected. Additional research is needed to develop management strategies appropriate for mitigating adverse effects of CBNG water irrigation.

  11. Validity of the WEPP model for predicting infiltration on irrigated lands 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ngang, Fidelis Ndemah

    1995-01-01

    The objective of this research was to establish the validity of the hydrologic component of the YVEPP erosion model for predicting infiltration on irrigated lands. WEPP uses the Green and Ampt equation with ponding to compute infiltration...

  12. Integrating Multiple Geographic Information Systems to Create a Versatile Land Evaluation Site Assessment Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Morrison, Grady

    2008-11-19

    GIS in Urban Planning Integrating Multiple Geographic Information Systems to Create a Versatile Land Suitability Analysis Model Grady Morrison Undergraduate Department of Geography University of Kansas gmorrisn@ku.edu Impervious Surface...

  13. Fire dynamics during the 20th century simulated by the Community Land Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kloster, Silvia [Cornell University; Mahowald, Natalie [Cornell University; Randerson, Jim [University of California, Irvine; Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Levis, Sam [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Lawrence, Peter J. [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Feddema, Johan J. [University of Kansas; Oleson, Keith [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Lawrence, David M. [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

    2011-01-01

    Fire is an integral Earth System process that interacts with climate in multiple ways. Here we assessed the parametrization of fires in the Community Land Model (CLM-CN) and improved the ability of the model to reproduce contemporary global patterns of burned areas and fire emissions. In addition to wildfires we extended CLM-CN to account for fires related to deforestation. We compared contemporary fire carbon emissions predicted by the model to satellite-based estimates in terms of magnitude and spatial extent as well as interannual and seasonal variability. Long-term trends during the 20th century were compared with historical estimates. Overall we found the best agreement between simulation and observations for the fire parametrization based on the work by Arora and Boer (2005). We obtained substantial improvement when we explicitly considered human caused ignition and fire suppression as a function of population density. Simulated fire carbon emissions ranged between 2.0 and 2.4 Pg C/year for the period 1997 2004. Regionally the simulations had a low bias over Africa and a high bias over South America when compared to satellite-based products. The net terrestrial carbon source due to land use change for the 1990s was 1.2 Pg C/year with 11% stemming from deforestation fires. During 2000 2004 this flux decreased to 0.85 Pg C/year with a similar relative contribution from deforestation fires. Between 1900 and 1960 we predicted a slight downward trend in global fire emissions caused by reduced fuels as a consequence of wood harvesting and also by increases in fire suppression. The model predicted an upward trend during the last three decades of the 20th century as a result of climate variations and large burning events associated with ENSO-induced drought conditions.

  14. Adventures in Vectorizing the Community Land Model Forrest M. Hoffman

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoffman, Forrest M.

    Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI) James B. White III, Patrick Worley, and John Drake Oak Ridge) on the IBM Power4, the Earth Simulator, and the Cray X1 are compared. #12;1 Introduction The Community Land-based scalar multi-processor computer platforms and re- sulted in code which would not vectorize. The avail

  15. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP): A Model-Data Comparison System for Evaluation of Coupled Biosphere-Atmosphere Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, Jim; Thornton, Peter E; Mahowald, Natalie; Bonan, Gordon; Running, Steven; Fung, Inez

    2009-01-01

    The need to capture important climate feebacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in new efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, now often referred to as Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results, suggesting that a more rigorous set of offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are warranted. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) provides a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). C-LAMP provides feedback to the modeling community regarding model improvements and to the measurement community by suggesting new observational campaigns. C-LAMP Experiment 1 consists of a set of uncoupled simulations of terrestrial carbon models specifically designed to examine the ability of the models to reproduce surface carbon and energy fluxes at multiple sites and to exhibit the influence of climate variability, prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), nitrogen (N) deposition, and land cover change on projections of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 20th century. Experiment 2 consists of partially coupled simulations of the terrestrial carbon model with an active atmosphere model exchanging energy and moisture fluxes. In all experiments, atmospheric CO{sub 2} follows the prescribed historical trajectory from C{sup 4}MIP. In Experiment 2, the atmosphere model is forced with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and corresponding sea ice concentrations from the Hadley Centre; prescribed CO{sub 2} is radiatively active; and land, fossil fuel, and ocean CO{sub 2} fluxes are advected by the model. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3) in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): The CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon-nitrogen (CN) model of Thornton. Comparisons against Ameriflus site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO{sub 2} Enrichment (FACE) site measurements, and other datasets have been performed and are described in Randerson et al. (2009). The C-LAMP diagnostics package was used to validate improvements to CASA and CN for use in the next generation model, CLM4. It is hoped that this effort will serve as a prototype for an international carbon-cycle model benchmarking activity for models being used for the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report. More information about C-LAMP, the experimental protocol, performance metrics, output standards, and model-data comparisons from the CLM3-CASA and CLM3-CN models are available at http://www.climatemodeling.org/c-lamp.

  16. Response of Free-Living Nitrogen-Fixing Microorganisms to Land Use Change in the Amazon Rainforest

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bohannan, Brendan

    ) of this greenhouse gas annually (1, 2). To absorb this enormous amount of CO2, a sig- nificant input of nitrogen (NResponse of Free-Living Nitrogen-Fixing Microorganisms to Land Use Change in the Amazon Rainforest-living nitrogen-fixing microorganisms (di- azotrophs) respond to deforestation in the Amazon rainforest, using

  17. We have used land use change, driven by development of the University of Vermont campus and recent student

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nichols, Kyle K.

    ABSTRACT We have used land use change, driven by development of the University of Vermont campus and recent student occupancy of surrounding neighborhoods in Burlington, Vermont, as an opportunity feedback from the students, city officials, and community members. INTRODUCTION The University of Vermont

  18. EA-1779: Proposed Changes to the Sanitary Biosolids Land Application Program on the Oak Ridge Reservation, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This EA evaluates the environmental impacts of a proposal to amend (e.g., by changing setback requirements from surface water features and potential channels to groundwater) the Sanitary Biosolids Land Application Program at the Oak Ridge Reservation in Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

  19. An international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Randerson, James T [ORNL; Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Bonan, Gordon [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Erickson III, David J [ORNL; Fung, Inez [University of California, Berkeley

    2009-12-01

    The need to capture important climate feedbacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, called Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). This work suggests that a more rigorous set of global offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are needed. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) was designed to meet this need by providing a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). Recently, a similar effort in Europe, called the International Land Model Benchmark (ILAMB) Project, was begun to assess the performance of European land surface models. These two projects will now serve as prototypes for a proposed international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for those models participating in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Initially used for model validation for terrestrial biogeochemistry models in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM), C-LAMP incorporates a simulation protocol for both offline and partially coupled simulations using a prescribed historical trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Models are confronted with data through comparisons against AmeriFlux site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA Globalview flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) site measurements. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the CLM version 3 in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): the CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon-nitrogen (CN) model of Thornton. Comparisons of the CLM3 offline results against observational datasets have been performed and are described in Randerson et al. (2009). CLM version 4 has been evaluated using C-LAMP, showing improvement in many of the metrics. Efforts are now underway to initiate a Nitrogen-Land Model Intercomparison Project (N-LAMP) to better constrain the effects of the nitrogen cycle in biosphere models. Presented will be new results from C-LAMP for CLM4, initial N-LAMP developments, and the proposed land-biosphere model benchmarking activity.

  20. ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' scientific report 1 ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' Team

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' scientific report 1 ``Climate Modelling & Global Change of the tropical climate : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 6 2.2 Short­term variability studies : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 8 2.3 Climate drift sensitivity studies

  1. INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW (Vol. 25, No. 2, 2002)Walker et al. / LAND USE IN FOREST FRONTIERS LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Walker, Robert T.

    for inputs (including labor), outputs, and capital. The risk model is specified and estimated, using survey institutional environment of tropical frontiers. In particular, it poses a risk minimization model

  2. Remote Sensing of Changing Cryosphere, LandIce and Snow -Workshop of the European Association of Remote Sensing Laboratories (EARSeL),

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zahn, Matthias

    Remote Sensing of Changing Cryosphere, LandIce and Snow - Workshop of the European Association of Remote Sensing Laboratories (EARSeL), Bern, Switzerland, 11-13 February 2008 Page 1 Potential and limits Max-Planck Institute of Meteorology, Germany #12;Remote Sensing of Changing Cryosphere, Land

  3. MODELING OF CHANGING ELECTRODE PROFILES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prentice, Geoffrey Allen

    1980-12-01

    A model for simulating the transient behavior of solid electrodes undergoing deposition or dissolution has been developed. The model accounts for ohmic drop, charge transfer overpotential, and mass transport limitations. The finite difference method, coupled with successive overrelaxation, was used as the basis of the solution technique. An algorithm was devised to overcome the computational instabilities associated with the calculations of the secondary and tertiary current distributions. Simulations were performed on several model electrode profiles: the sinusoid, the rounded corner, and the notch. Quantitative copper deposition data were obtained in a contoured rotating cylinder system, Sinusoidal cross-sections, machined on stainless steel cylinders, were used as model geometries, Kinetic parameters for use in the simulation were determined from polarization curves obtained on copper rotating cylinders, These parameters, along with other physical property and geometric data, were incorporated in simulations of growing sinusoidal profiles. The copper distributions on the sinusoidal cross-sections were measured and found to compare favorably with the simulated results. At low Wagner numbers the formation of a slight depression at the profile peak was predicted by the simulation and observed on the profile. At higher Wagner numbers, the simulated and experimental results showed that the formation of a depression was suppressed. This phenomenon was shown to result from the competition between ohmic drop and electrode curvature.

  4. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore »the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  5. Improving parameter estimation and water table depth simulation in a land surface model using GRACE water storage and estimated base flow data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lo, Min-Hui; Famiglietti, James S; Yeh, P. J.-F.; Syed, T. H

    2010-01-01

    spatially variable water and energy balance processes, Waterdistributed land surface water and energy balance model, J.

  6. A Subbasin-based framework to represent land surface processes in an Earth System Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tesfa, Teklu K.; Li, Hongyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Huang, Maoyi; Ke, Yinghai; Sun, Yu; Liu, Ying

    2014-05-20

    Realistically representing spatial heterogeneity and lateral land surface processes within and between modeling units in earth system models is important because of their implications to surface energy and water exchange. The traditional approach of using regular grids as computational units in land surface models and earth system models may lead to inadequate representation of lateral movements of water, energy and carbon fluxes, especially when the grid resolution increases. Here a new subbasin-based framework is introduced in the Community Land Model (CLM), which is the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Local processes are represented assuming each subbasin as a grid cell on a pseudo grid matrix with no significant modifications to the existing CLM modeling structure. Lateral routing of water within and between subbasins is simulated with the subbasin version of a recently-developed physically based routing model, Model for Scale Adaptive River Routing (MOSART). As an illustration, this new framework is implemented in the topographically diverse region of the U.S. Pacific Northwest. The modeling units (subbasins) are delineated from high-resolution Digital Elevation Model while atmospheric forcing and surface parameters are remapped from the corresponding high resolution datasets. The impacts of this representation on simulating hydrologic processes are explored by comparing it with the default (grid-based) CLM representation. In addition, the effects of DEM resolution on parameterizing topography and the subsequent effects on runoff processes are investigated. Limited model evaluation and comparison showed that small difference between the averaged forcing can lead to more significant difference in the simulated runoff and streamflow because of nonlinear horizontal processes. Topographic indices derived from high resolution DEM may not improve the overall water balance, but affect the partitioning between surface and subsurface runoff. More systematic analyses are needed to determine the relative merits of the subbasin representation compared to the commonly used grid-based representation, especially when land surface models are approaching higher resolutions.

  7. Women and land privatisation, gender relations, and social change in Truku society, Taiwan 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lin, Ching-Hsiu

    2010-11-26

    This research is based upon fieldwork carried out in 2005 and 2006 among Truku people, a Taiwanese indigenous group living in eastern Taiwan. It examines the transformation of the relationship between women and land, and ...

  8. Assessing Effects of Changing Land Use Practices on Sediment Loads in Panther

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    coastal California. We compute land use statistics, analyze suspended sediment discharge rating curves operations are limited, and improved standards for newly constructed and upgraded roads. In July 2000 not require long-term road inspection and maintenance, the TMDL include

  9. Land use change in Maasailand drivers, dynamics and impacts on largeherbivores and agro-pastoralism 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Msoffe, Fortunata Urban

    2010-11-24

    The Maasailand of Kenya and Tanzania supports one of the richest wildlife populations remaining on Earth. However, over the last century, Maasailand has experienced land transformation notably through conversion of former ...

  10. Indirect Land Use Change: A second best solution to a first class problem

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zilberman, David D.; Hochman, Gal; Rajagopal, Deepak

    2010-01-01

    and reflect the concern that biofuel production will lead tothe whole plant for biofuel production, not just parts ofbiofuel or expansion of biofuel production on land use is an

  11. Land-Based Wind Potential Changes in the Southeastern United States (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Roberts, J. O.

    2013-09-01

    Recent advancements in utility-scale wind turbine technology and pricing have vastly increased the potential land area where turbines can be deployed in the United States. This presentation quantifies the new developable land potential (e.g., capacity curves), visually identifies new areas for possible development (e.g., new wind resource maps), and begins to address deployment barriers to wind in new areas for modern and future turbine technology.

  12. Wildfire Risk Mapping over the State of Mississippi: Land Surface Modeling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooke, William H. [Mississippi State University (MSU); Mostovoy, Georgy [Mississippi State University (MSU); Anantharaj, Valentine G [ORNL; Jolly, W. Matt [USDA Forest Service

    2012-01-01

    Three fire risk indexes based on soil moisture estimates were applied to simulate wildfire probability over the southern part of Mississippi using the logistic regression approach. The fire indexes were retrieved from: (1) accumulated difference between daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (P-E); (2) top 10 cm soil moisture content simulated by the Mosaic land surface model; and (3) the Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI). The P-E, KBDI, and soil moisture based indexes were estimated from gridded atmospheric and Mosaic-simulated soil moisture data available from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2). Normalized deviations of these indexes from the 31-year mean (1980-2010) were fitted into the logistic regression model describing probability of wildfires occurrence as a function of the fire index. It was assumed that such normalization provides more robust and adequate description of temporal dynamics of soil moisture anomalies than the original (not normalized) set of indexes. The logistic model parameters were evaluated for 0.25 x0.25 latitude/longitude cells and for probability representing at least one fire event occurred during 5 consecutive days. A 23-year (1986-2008) forest fires record was used. Two periods were selected and examined (January mid June and mid September December). The application of the logistic model provides an overall good agreement between empirical/observed and model-fitted fire probabilities over the study area during both seasons. The fire risk indexes based on the top 10 cm soil moisture and KBDI have the largest impact on the wildfire odds (increasing it by almost 2 times in response to each unit change of the corresponding fire risk index during January mid June period and by nearly 1.5 times during mid September-December) observed over 0.25 x0.25 cells located along the state of Mississippi Coast line. This result suggests a rather strong control of fire risk indexes on fire occurrence probability over this region.

  13. Modeling soil depth from topographic and land cover attributes Teklu K. Tesfa,1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tarboton, David

    Modeling soil depth from topographic and land cover attributes Teklu K. Tesfa,1 David G. Tarboton,1 June 2009; published 29 October 2009. [1] Soil depth is an important input parameter in hydrological and ecological modeling. Presently, the soil depth data available in national soil databases (STATSGO and SSURGO

  14. Uncertainty Analysis of Runoff Simulations and Parameter Identifiability in the Community Land Model – Evidence from MOPEX Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huang, Maoyi; Hou, Zhangshuan; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ke, Yinghai; Liu, Ying; Fang, Zhufeng; Sun, Yu

    2013-12-01

    With the emergence of earth system models as important tools for understanding and predicting climate change and implications to mitigation and adaptation, it has become increasingly important to assess the fidelity of the land component within earth system models to capture realistic hydrological processes and their response to the changing climate and quantify the associated uncertainties. This study investigates the sensitivity of runoff simulations to major hydrologic parameters in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4) by integrating CLM4 with a stochastic exploratory sensitivity analysis framework at 20 selected watersheds from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) spanning a wide range of climate and site conditions. We found that for runoff simulations, the most significant parameters are those related to the subsurface runoff parameterizations. Soil texture related parameters and surface runoff parameters are of secondary significance. Moreover, climate and soil conditions play important roles in the parameter sensitivity. In general, site conditions within water-limited hydrologic regimes and with finer soil texture result in stronger sensitivity of output variables, such as runoff and its surface and subsurface components, to the input parameters in CLM4. This study demonstrated the feasibility of parameter inversion for CLM4 using streamflow observations to improve runoff simulations. By ranking the significance of the input parameters, we showed that the parameter set dimensionality could be reduced for CLM4 parameter calibration under different hydrologic and climatic regimes so that the inverse problem is less ill posed.

  15. A Functional Test Platform for the Community Land Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Yang [ORNL] [ORNL; Thornton, Peter E [ORNL] [ORNL; King, Anthony Wayne [ORNL] [ORNL; Steed, Chad A [ORNL] [ORNL; Gu, Lianhong [ORNL] [ORNL; Schuchart, Joseph [ORNL] [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    A functional test platform is presented to create direct linkages between site measurements and the process-based ecosystem model within the Community Earth System Models (CESM). The platform consists of three major parts: 1) interactive user interfaces, 2) functional test model and 3) observational datasets. It provides much needed integration interfaces for both field experimentalists and ecosystem modelers to improve the model s representation of ecosystem processes within the CESM framework without large software overhead.

  16. Structural analysis of three global land models on carbon cycle simulations using a traceability framework

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Rafique, R.; Xia, J.; Hararuk, O.; Luo, Y.

    2014-06-27

    Modeled carbon (C) storage capacity is largely determined by the C residence time and net primary productivity (NPP). Extensive research has been done on NPP dynamics but the residence time and their relationships with C storage are much less studied. In this study, we implemented a traceability analysis to understand the modeled C storage and residence time in three land surface models: CSIRO's Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) with 9 C pools, Community Land Model (version 3.5) combined with Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CLM3.5-CASA) with 12 C pools and Community Land Model (version 4) (CLM4) with 26 C pools. The globally averagedmore »C storage and residence time was computed at both individual pool and total ecosystem levels. The spatial distribution of total ecosystem C storage and residence time differ greatly among the three models. The CABLE model showed a closer agreement with measured C storage and residence time in plant and soil pools than CLM3.5-CASA and CLM4. However, CLM3.5-CASA and CLM4 were close to each other in modeled C storage but not with measured data. CABLE stores more C in root whereas CLM3.5-CASA and CLM4 store more C in woody pools, partly due to differential NPP allocation in respective pools. The C residence time in individual C pools is greatly different among models, largely because of different transfer coefficient values among pools. CABLE had higher bulk residence time for soil C pools than the other two models. Overall, the traceability analysis used in this study can help fully characterizes the behavior of complex land models.« less

  17. NUMERICAL MODEL FOR LAND SUBSIDENCE IN SHALLOW GROUNDWATER SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Narasimhan, T.N.

    2010-01-01

    loading: of ultimate pore-pressures generated. contours LOOdcoefficient relating pore pressure change to X' effectiveof 3.05 m of excess pore-pressure within each-bed. The clay

  18. Modeling Long-Range Transportation and Land Use Scenarios for the Sacramento Region, Using Citizen-Generated Policies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnston, Robert A.; Gao, Shengyi; Clay, Michael J.

    2008-01-01

    Barra. Comparison from the Sacramento Model Testbed. Transp.Management Policies in the Sacramento Region: Year Two.Land Use Scenarios for the Sacramento Region, Using Citizen-

  19. Mitigation Options in Forestry, Land-Use, Change and Biomass Burning in Africa

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makundi, Willy R.

    1998-06-01

    Mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in land use sectors are describe in some detail. The paper highlights those options in the forestry sector, which are more relevant to different parts of Africa. It briefly outlines a bottom-up methodological framework for comprehensively assessing mitigation options in land use sectors. This method emphasizes the application of end-use demand projections to construct a baseline and mitigation scenarios and explicitly addresses the carbon storage potential on land and in wood products, as well as use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels. Cost-effectiveness indicators for ranking mitigation options are proposed, including those, which account for non-carbon monetary benefits such as those derived from forest products, as well as opportunity cost of pursuing specific mitigation option. The paper finally surveys the likely policies, barriers and incentives to implement such mitigation options in African countries .

  20. Q&A on "Impacts of Wind Farms on Land Surface Temperature" Published by Nature Climate Change on April 29, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhou, Liming

    1 Q&A on "Impacts of Wind Farms on Land Surface Temperature" Published by Nature Climate Change? This study presents the first observational evidence of wind farm impacts on land surface temperature downwind of wind farms. Why do the operating wind turbines warm nighttime temperature? This warming effect

  1. Climate change and uncertainty in ecological niche modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alvarez, Otto

    2011-01-01

    J. B. Grace (2010). "Climate change effects on an endemic-modelling under climate change." Progress in Physical2009). "The velocity of climate change." Nature 462(7276):

  2. Land Surface Model Data Assimilation for Atmospheric Prediction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Walker, Jeff

    predictions from different models even when using the same parameters, inputs, and initial conditions (Houser remote sensing studies, using visible, thermal infrared (surface temperature) and microwave (passive and active) electromagnetic radiation. Of these, passive microwave soil moisture measurement has been

  3. 247VECTORIZING THE COMMUNITY LAND MODEL VECTORIZING THE COMMUNITY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoffman, Forrest M.

    systems models (including the CLM) on vector architectures. However, the prior development of the CLM in Japan and the Cray X1 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) spawned renewed interest in running Earth

  4. A Testbed for Mars Precision Landing Experiments by Emulating Spacecraft Dynamics on a Model Helicopter

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sukhatme, Gaurav S.

    Helicopter Srikanth Saripalli and Gaurav S. Sukhatme Robotics Embedded Systems Laboratory Department,gaurav}@robotics.usc.edu Abstract We propose the use of a model helicopter to emulate the landing dynamics of a spacecraft. Our controller accepts thruster inputs (like those on a spacecraft) and converts them into appropriate helicopter

  5. The effect of soil hydraulic properties vs. soil texture in land surface models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Small, Eric

    The effect of soil hydraulic properties vs. soil texture in land surface models E. D. Gutmann and E and difficulties in scaling existing data. In particular, the spatial distribution of Soil Hydraulic Properties to determine SHPs. Citation: Gutmann, E. D., and E. E. Small (2005), The effect of soil hydraulic properties vs

  6. Pan-Arctic land–atmospheric fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide in response to climate change over the 21st century

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xudong

    Future changes of pan-Arctic land–atmospheric methane (CH[subscript 4]) and carbon dioxide (CO[subscript 2]) depend on how terrestrial ecosystems respond to warming climate. Here, we used a coupled hydrology–biogeochemistry ...

  7. Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jones, A.D.

    2014-01-01

    in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1):  Seasonal within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples theuse Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative

  8. Modeling the impact of agricultural land use and management on US carbon budgets

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Drewniak, B. A.; Mishra, U.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

    2014-09-22

    Cultivation of the terrestrial land surface can create either a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, depending on land management practices. The Community Land Model (CLM) provides a useful tool to explore how land use and management impact the soil carbon pool at regional to global scales. CLM was recently updated to include representation of managed lands growing maize, soybean, and spring wheat. In this study, CLM-Crop is used to investigate the impacts of various management practices, including fertilizer use and differential rates of crop residue removal, on the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage of croplands in the continental Unitedmore »States over approximately a 170 year period. Results indicate that total US SOC stocks have already lost over 8 Pg C (10%) due to land cultivation practices (e.g., fertilizer application, cultivar choice, and residue removal), compared to a land surface composed of native vegetation (i.e., grasslands). After long periods of cultivation, individual plots growing maize and soybean lost up to 65% of the carbon stored, compared to a grassland site. Crop residue management showed the greatest effect on soil carbon storage, with low and medium residue returns resulting in additional losses of 5% and 3.5%, respectively, in US carbon storage, while plots with high residue returns stored 2% more carbon. Nitrogenous fertilizer can alter the amount of soil carbon stocks significantly. Under current levels of crop residue return, not applying fertilizer resulted in a 5% loss of soil carbon. Our simulations indicate that disturbance through cultivation will always result in a loss of soil carbon, and management practices will have a large influence on the magnitude of SOC loss.« less

  9. Modeling the impact of agricultural land use and management on US carbon budgets

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Drewniak, B. A.; Mishra, U.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

    2015-04-09

    Cultivation of the terrestrial land surface can create either a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, depending on land management practices. The Community Land Model (CLM) provides a useful tool for exploring how land use and management impact the soil carbon pool at regional to global scales. CLM was recently updated to include representation of managed lands growing maize, soybean, and spring wheat. In this study, CLM-Crop is used to investigate the impacts of various management practices, including fertilizer use and differential rates of crop residue removal, on the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage of croplands in the continental Unitedmore »States over approximately a 170-year period. Results indicate that total US SOC stocks have already lost over 8 Pg C (10%) due to land cultivation practices (e.g., fertilizer application, cultivar choice, and residue removal), compared to a land surface composed of native vegetation (i.e., grasslands). After long periods of cultivation, individual subgrids (the equivalent of a field plot) growing maize and soybean lost up to 65% of the carbon stored compared to a grassland site. Crop residue management showed the greatest effect on soil carbon storage, with low and medium residue returns resulting in additional losses of 5 and 3.5%, respectively, in US carbon storage, while plots with high residue returns stored 2% more carbon. Nitrogenous fertilizer can alter the amount of soil carbon stocks significantly. Under current levels of crop residue return, not applying fertilizer resulted in a 5% loss of soil carbon. Our simulations indicate that disturbance through cultivation will always result in a loss of soil carbon, and management practices will have a large influence on the magnitude of SOC loss.« less

  10. B. Decharme H. Douville Introduction of a sub-grid hydrology in the ISBA land surface model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    B. Decharme Ć H. Douville Introduction of a sub-grid hydrology in the ISBA land surface model spa- tial scales. This paper focuses on the parameterization of sub-grid hydrological processes within the ISBA land surface model. Five off-line simulations are performed over the French Rho^ ne river basin

  11. GoMRC Website ‘Meta-analysis Report: Land-use and submerged aquatic vegetation change in the Gulf of Mexico’

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Judd, Chaeli; Stefansson, Emily S.; Brushnahan, Heather

    2007-12-06

    Over the past century, health and spatial extent of seagrasses has decreased dramatically in the Gulf of Mexico. While some of the changes can be explained by direct impacts to the seagrass beds, we hypothesize that changes in the land use in the watersheds can also be correlated with the decline of seagrasses. Through this meta-analysis, we researched historical and compared trends in seagrass populations and land use in five bays and their watersheds within the Gulf of Mexico: Mobile Bay, Perdido Bay, Tampa Bay, Charlotte Harbor, and Galveston Bay. Using both historical records and spatial datasets, we examined land use and seagrass trends in these five areas.

  12. Multilayer network modeling of change propagation for engineering change management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pasqual, Michael C

    2010-01-01

    Engineering change management is a critical and challenging process within product development. One pervasive source of difficulty for this process is the phenomenon of change propagation, by which a change to one part or ...

  13. BCS 311: Land and Environments of the Circumpolar World Module 7 Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bhatt, Uma

    Climate Change Developed by Richard D. Boone1,3 and Uma S. Bhatt2,3 1 is to give students an overview of climate change in the Arctic, including objective is to gain an overview of the recent climate change record, the causes

  14. Land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions from corn and cellulosic

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration would likeUniverseIMPACTThousand CubicResourcelogo and mastheadLake CharlesLand-Use

  15. Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jones, A.D.

    2014-01-01

    warming through the greenhouse effect.  Proceedings of the the radiative effect of greenhouse gases.   Philosophical Change for  Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas and Sulfur Dioxide 

  16. Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jones, A.D.

    2014-01-01

    variations in energy and  carbon exchange over forest and energy flux changes associated with conversion from forestenergy budgets averaged over the boreal and tropical forest

  17. Multicentury changes in ocean and land contributions to the climate-carbon feedback

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2015-01-01

    cycle experiments with the Earth system model CESM1(BGC), J.in the Community Earth System Model CESM1(BGC): Comparisonfeedbacks in CMIP5 Earth system models, J. Clim. , 27(11),

  18. Multicentury changes in ocean and land contributions to the climate-carbon feedback

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2015-01-01

    cycle experiments with the Earth system model CESM1(BGC), J.fraction simulated by CMIP5 Earth system models under fourin the Community Earth System Model: Evaluation and

  19. Utilizing CLASIC observations and multiscale models to study the impact of improved Land surface representation on modeling cloud- convection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Niyogi, Devdutta S.

    2013-06-07

    The CLASIC experiment was conducted over the US southern great plains (SGP) in June 2007 with an objective to lead an enhanced understanding of the cumulus convection particularly as it relates to land surface conditions. This project was design to help assist with understanding the overall improvement of land atmosphere convection initiation representation of which is important for global and regional models. The study helped address one of the critical documented deficiency in the models central to the ARM objectives for cumulus convection initiation and particularly under summer time conditions. This project was guided by the scientific question building on the CLASIC theme questions: What is the effect of improved land surface representation on the ability of coupled models to simulate cumulus and convection initiation? The focus was on the US Southern Great Plains region. Since the CLASIC period was anomalously wet the strategy has been to use other periods and domains to develop the comparative assessment for the CLASIC data period, and to understand the mechanisms of the anomalous wet conditions on the tropical systems and convection over land. The data periods include the IHOP 2002 field experiment that was over roughly same domain as the CLASIC in the SGP, and some of the DOE funded Ameriflux datasets.

  20. A Framework for Modeling Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    climate models). The modeling framework revolves around the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MITA Framework for Modeling Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Erwan Monier, Xiang Gao, Jeffery processes of policy development and implementation, climate change research needs to focus on improving

  1. Community Land Model Version 3.0 (CLM3.0) Developer's Guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffman, FM

    2004-12-21

    This document describes the guidelines adopted for software development of the Community Land Model (CLM) and serves as a reference to the entire code base of the released version of the model. The version of the code described here is Version 3.0 which was released in the summer of 2004. This document, the Community Land Model Version 3.0 (CLM3.0) User's Guide (Vertenstein et al., 2004), the Technical Description of the Community Land Model (CLM) (Oleson et al., 2004), and the Community Land Model's Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-DGVM): Technical Description and User's Guide (Levis et al., 2004) provide the developer, user, or researcher with details of implementation, instructions for using the model, a scientific description of the model, and a scientific description of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model integrated with CLM respectively. The CLM is a single column (snow-soil-vegetation) biogeophysical model of the land surface which can be run serially (on a laptop or personal computer) or in parallel (using distributed or shared memory processors or both) on both vector and scalar computer architectures. Written in Fortran 90, CLM can be run offline (i.e., run in isolation using stored atmospheric forcing data), coupled to an atmospheric model (e.g., the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM)), or coupled to a climate system model (e.g., the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3)) through a flux coupler (e.g., Coupler 6 (CPL6)). When coupled, CLM exchanges fluxes of energy, water, and momentum with the atmosphere. The horizontal land surface heterogeneity is represented by a nested subgrid hierarchy composed of gridcells, landunits, columns, and plant functional types (PFTs). This hierarchical representation is reflected in the data structures used by the model code. Biophysical processes are simulated for each subgrid unit (landunit, column, and PFT) independently, and prognostic variables are maintained for each subgrid unit. Vertical heterogeneity is represented by a single vegetation layer, 10 layers for soil, and up to five layers for snow, depending on the snow depth. For computational efficiency, gridcells are grouped into ''clumps'' which are divided in cyclic fashion among distributed memory processors. Additional parallel performance is obtained by distributing clumps of gridcells across shared memory processors on computer platforms that support hybrid Message Passing Interface (MPI)/OpenMP operation. Significant modifications to the source code have been made over the last year to support efficient operation on newer vector architectures, specifically the Earth Simulator in Japan and the Cray X1 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (Homan et al., 2004). These code modifications resulted in performance improvements even on the scalar architectures widely used for running CLM presently. To better support vectorized processing in the code, subgrid units (columns and PFTs) are grouped into ''filters'' based on their process-specific categorization. For example, filters (vectors of integers) referring to all snow, non-snow, lake, non-lake, and soil covered columns and PFTs within each clump are built and maintained when the model is run. Many loops within the scientific subroutines use these filters to indirectly address the process-appropriate subgrid units.

  2. A COMPARISON OF OBJECT-BASED WITH PIXEL-BASED LAND COVER CHANGE DETECTION IN THE BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREA USING MULTITEMPORAL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vermont, University of

    A COMPARISON OF OBJECT-BASED WITH PIXEL-BASED LAND COVER CHANGE DETECTION IN THE BALTIMORE portions of Baltimore City and Baltimore County, Maryland, USA. The results indicated that the object- classification change detection, high-spatial resolution image, urban area, Baltimore, LTER. 1. INTRODUCTION

  3. Using Land to Mitigate Climate Change: Hitting the Target, Recognizing the Trade-offs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    model, the Program seeks to: discover new interactions among natural and human climate system components that will shape our future; and improve methods to model, monitor and verify greenhouse gas emissions and climatic environmental conditions there may be implications for food prices. Using an integrated global system model, we

  4. Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Rawlins, M. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Kimball, J. S.; Dass, P.; Lawrence, D.; Burke, E.; Chen, X.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; MacDougall, A.; et al

    2015-07-28

    A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960–2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate modelmore »simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data. The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m?˛ yr?˛, equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960–1969 vs. 2000–2009), with a weakening CO2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO2 sink strength. The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our analysis points to improvements in model elements controlling vegetation productivity and soil respiration as being needed for reducing uncertainty in land-atmosphere CO2 exchange. These advances will require collection of new field data on vegetation and soil dynamics, the development of benchmarking data sets from measurements and remote-sensing observations, and investments in future model development and intercomparison studies.« less

  5. Finding of no significant impact: Changes in the sanitary sludge land application program on the Oak Ridge Reservation, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-10-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has completed an environmental assessment (DOE/EA-1042) that evaluates potential impacts of proposed changes in the sanitary sludge land application program on the DOE Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Changes in lifetime sludge land application limits and radionuclide loading are proposed, and two new sources of sewage sludge from DOE facilities would be transported to the City of Oak Ridge Publicly Owned Treatment Works (COR POTW). Lifetime sludge land application limits would increase from 22 tons/acre to 50 tons/acre, which is the limit approved and permitted by the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC). With the approval of TDEC, the permissible radiological dose from sludge land application would change from the current limit of 2x background radionuclide concentrations in receiving soils to a risk-based dose limit of 4 millirem (mrem) per year for the maximally exposed individual. Sludge land application sites would not change from those that are currently part of the program. Based on the results of the analysis reported in the EA, DOE has determined that the proposed action is not a major federal action that would significantly affect the quality of the human environment within the context of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). Therefore, preparation of an environmental impact statement (EIS) is not necessary, and DOE is issuing this Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI). 70 refs., 2 figs., 17 tabs.

  6. Predicted impacts of climate and land use change on surface ozone in the Houston, Texas, area

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Zong-Liang

    sensitivity experiments show that the effect of future anthropogenic emissions change is on the same order detrimental effects on human health and plants. The conditions conducive to high O3 concentrations near the surface generally include warm weather, high solar radiation and high-pressure sys- tems. Future

  7. How a False Probability Model Changed the World

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Steele, J. Michael

    How a False Probability Model Changed the World: Birth, Death, and Redemption of Black-Scholes J. Michael Steele March 12, 2008 J. Michael Steele How a False Probability Model Changed the World: Birth Probability Model Changed the World: Birth, Death #12;Introduction: The Special, The Empirical, The Miracle

  8. Population and Climate Change:Population and Climate Change: Coupling Population Models withCoupling Population Models with

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maryland at College Park, University of

    Coupling Population Models with Earth System ModelsEarth System Models Eugenia Kalnay, Safa Motesharrei, Jorge Rivas Change: Fully Coupling Population and Earth System Models" My research at the U. of Maryland #12

  9. GIS-Based Cellular Automaton Model to allocate Kansas High Plains Irrigated Agriculture Land Use

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chiu, Peiwen

    2014-04-08

    GIS-Based Cellular Automaton Model to Allocate Irrigated Agriculture Land Use Peiwen Chiu Kansas State University GIS Day 2013 November 20, 2013 University of Kansas High Plains/Ogallala Aquifer 8 States 186,000 mi2 480,000 km2 http...://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/05/16/us/an-underground-pool-drying-up.html?ref=us Aquifer Decline When amount of water diverted in the zone of influence is greater than recharge, this will result decline in the water level in the Aquifer. Most concentrated irrigated...

  10. Progress on MPAS Land Ice Model Development (Conference) | SciTech Connect

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefieldSulfateSciTech ConnectSpeeding accessusers'(x≤2)Article)SciTechon MPAS Land Ice Model Development

  11. Progress on MPAS Land Ice Model Development (Conference) | SciTech Connect

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefieldSulfateSciTech ConnectSpeeding accessusers'(x≤2)Article)SciTechon MPAS Land Ice Model

  12. Modeling land surface processes of the midwestern United States : predicting soil moisture under a warmer climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Winter, Jonathan (Jonathan Mark)

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation seeks to quantify the response of soil moisture to climate change in the midwestern United States. To assess this response, a dynamic global vegetation model, Integrated Biosphere Simulator, was coupled ...

  13. The relationships between biomass burning, land-cover/use change, and the distribution of carbonaceous aerosols in mainland Southeast Asia: A review and synthesis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shi, Tao

    1 The relationships between biomass burning, land-cover/use change, and the distribution. 793, The Ohio State University March 3, 2007 Biomass burning is a major source of black carbon directly and indirectly. Uncertainty regarding the contribution of biomass burning to the concentration

  14. Wood density in forests of Brazil's `arc of deforestation': Implications for biomass and flux of carbon from land-use change in Amazonia

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Camara, Gilberto

    Wood density in forests of Brazil's `arc of deforestation': Implications for biomass and flux form 25 April 2007; accepted 29 April 2007 Abstract Wood density is an important variable in estimates of forest biomass and greenhouse-gas emissions from land-use change. The mean wood density used in estimates

  15. The potential to influence runoff processes by changes in land M. Weiler, S. Scherrer, C. Thoma, P. Fackel and F. Naef

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weiler, Markus

    infiltration rates and storage capacities or percolation into the bedrock contribute little to storm runoff and infiltration exper- iments combined with tracer techniques, areas in catchments were identified where different runoff processes in the catchment were set-up. In order to study effects of land use changes on storm

  16. Multilayer Network Model for Analysis and Management of Change Propagation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Weck, Olivier L.

    1 Multilayer Network Model for Analysis and Management of Change Propagation Michael C. Pasqual · Olivier L. de Weck Abstract A pervasive problem for engineering change management is the phenomenon and management of change propagation using the model. The repository includes a few novel tools and metrics, most

  17. Modeling Climate Change Adaptation: Challenges, Recent Developments and Future Directions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wing, Ian Sue

    Modeling Climate Change Adaptation: Challenges, Recent Developments and Future Directions Karen of modeling practice in the field of integrated assessment of climate change and ways forward. Past efforts assessments of climate change have concentrated on developing baseline emissions scenarios and analyzing

  18. Public Affairs 7311 Models and Tools of Change Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    O'Toole, Alice J.

    Public Affairs 7311 Models and Tools of Change Management Spring 2008 "If you want to make some enterprise (2) to acquaint students with the contemporary literatures of organizational change and change management (3) to prepare students to conduct research in the field of organizational change (4) to provide

  19. Development of a total landed cost and risk analysis model for global strategic sourcing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feller, Brian (Brian C.)

    2008-01-01

    Total landed cost and supply chain risk analysis are methods that many companies use to assess strategic sourcing decisions. For this project, landed cost is defined as those costs associated with material movement from a ...

  20. Coupling GIS and LCA for biodiversity assessments of land use: Part 1: Inventory modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Geyer, Roland; Stoms, David M.; Lindner, Jan P.; Davis, Frank W.; Wittstock, Bastian

    2010-01-01

    467 DOI 10.1007/s11367-010-0170-9 LAND USE IN LCA CouplingGIS and LCA for biodiversity assessments of land use Part 1:while life cycle assessment (LCA) does not conventionally

  1. Land Use and Wildfire: A Review of Local Interactions and Teleconnections

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kelly, Maggi

    2015-01-01

    to coordinate land change and fire management across largeof land use change and fire management—Such as land useland use change through fire management. Often, increased

  2. MODELING LAND SURFACE PROCESSES IN SHORT-TERM WEATHER AND CLIMATE STUDIES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Zong-Liang

    , glaciers, inland water, mountains, animals, human beings, their shelters, and much more. Land surface@mail.utexas.edu Website: www.geo.utexas.edu/climate (Manuscript received 31 January 2003) Land exchanges momentum, energy, water, aerosols, carbon dioxide and other trace gases with its overlying atmosphere. The land surface

  3. Estimating a model discrepancy term for the Community Land Model using latent heat and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ray, Jaideep

    system models; coupled to an atmosphere & ocean model · Can be used in global (gridded) mode or locally calibration = O(104) #12;What is CLM? · A model for biogeochemical & hydrological processes · Used in Earth

  4. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs: FORECASTING EARTH'S SURFACE RESPONSE

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Brad Murray, A.; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore »the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  5. Water balance in the Amazon basin from a land surface model ensemble

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Getirana, Augusto; Dutra, Emanuel; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Kam, Jonghun; Li, Hongyi; Decharme, Bertrand; Zhang, Zhengqiu J.; Ducharne, Agnes; Boone, Aaron; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Rodell, Matthew; Mounirou Toure, Ally; Xue, Yongkang; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Arsenault, Kristi Rae; Drapeau, Guillaume; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ronchail, Josyane; Sheffield, Justin

    2014-12-06

    Despite recent advances in modeling and remote sensing of land surfaces, estimates of the global water budget are still fairly uncertain. The objective of this study is to evaluate the water budget of the Amazon basin based on several state-of-the-art land surface model (LSM) outputs. Water budget variables [total water storage (TWS), evapotranspiration (ET), surface runoff (R) and baseflow (B)] are evaluated at the basin scale using both remote sensing and in situ data. Fourteen LSMs were run using meteorological forcings at a 3-hourly time step and 1-degree spatial resolution. Three experiments are performed using precipitation which has been rescaled to match monthly global GPCP and GPCC datasets and the daily HYBAM dataset for the Amazon basin. R and B are used to force the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme and simulated discharges are compared against observations at 165 gauges. Simulated ET and TWS are compared against FLUXNET and MOD16A2 evapotranspiration, and GRACE TWS estimates in different catchments. At the basin scale, simulated ET ranges from 2.39mm.d-1 to 3.26mm.d-1 and a low spatial correlation between ET and P indicates that evapotranspiration does not depend on water availability over most of the basin. Results also show that other simulated water budget variables vary significantly as a function of both the LSM and precipitation used, but simulated TWS generally agree at the basin scale. The best water budget simulations resulted from experiments using the HYBAM dataset, mostly explained by a denser rainfall gauge network the daily rescaling.

  6. Verifying the Accuracy of Land Use Models Used in Transportation and Air Quality: A Case Study in the Sacramento, California Region

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rodier, Caroline J.

    2005-01-01

    A Case Study in the Sacramento Region (Ph.D. Dissertation,Analysis using the Sacramento MEPLAN Land Use Transportationin the MEPLAN model of Sacramento. ” Transportation Research

  7. Berkeley Lab's Bill Collins talks about Modeling the Changing...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Berkeley Lab's Bill Collins talks about Modeling the Changing Earth System: Prospects and Challenges. From the 2014 NERSC User's Group Meeting Berkeley Lab's Bill Collins talks...

  8. A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science Gent, Peter; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Conley, Andrew; Vertenstein, Mariana; Craig, Anthony 54 ENVIRONMENTAL...

  9. The impact of land cover change on carbon and water cycling in the US Central Plains grasslands

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buck, Tyler

    2010-07-30

    Using the eddy covariance technique, the impact of land cover variability on carbon and water cycling was examined at three different grasslands in Northeast Kansas. One site 8 km north of Lawrence, Kansas at the Nelson Environmental Study Area...

  10. EA-1042: Proposed Changes to the Sanitary Sludge Land Application Program on the Oak Ridge Reservation, Oak Ridge, Tennesee

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This EA evaluates the environmental impacts of the proposal to raise the sludge land application loading limits from the current, self-imposed conservative 48 metric tons/ha lifetime loading to the...

  11. Mapping the Potential for Biofuel Production on Marginal Lands: Differences in Definitions, Data and Models across Scales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lewis, Sarah M

    2014-01-01

    D. Land availability for biofuel production. Environ. Sci.of land available for biofuel production. Environ. Sci.so marginal land for biofuel crops is limited. Energy Policy

  12. Modeling urban growth and land use/land cover change in the Houston Metropolitan Area from 2002 - 2030 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oguz, Hakan

    2005-08-29

    for the period from 2002 to 2030 is predicted. Within SLEUTH, growth in the Houston CMSA is predominately "organic" with most growth occurring along the urban/rural fringe. Projected increases in urban area from 2002 to 2030 parallel projected increases...

  13. Lessons Learned in Developing and Applying Land Use Model Systems: A Parcel-based Example

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kockelman, Kara M.

    pricing scenario (incorporating congestion tolls on freeways and carbon taxes on all roads of road pricing- and trend-scenario results for the Austin, Texas region highlight how policies may shape land and travel futures. While the road pricing policy did not alter land use intensity patterns

  14. Comparative study of Regional Urban Growth (RUG) model projections for new EU members in central Europe and the Baltic States 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Langner, Pawel

    2009-11-26

    Urban modelling and land-cover changes are well discussed in literature and are in a focal point of many researches. Regional urban growth (RUG) model for central Europe and the Baltic States projects land-cover changes ...

  15. Forecasting Recovery Opportunities for the Red-cockaded Woodpecker on Private Lands in Eastern North Carolina Using a Spatial Model of Tree Age 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dube, Amanda M

    2014-11-21

    age model for pines on private lands in eastern North Carolina. Modeling provided a means to spatially and temporally identify recovery opportunities over the next 10 to 40 years, predict locations for potential recruitment clusters within the next 10...

  16. Center for BioEnergy Sustainability http://www.ornl.gov/cbes/ Bioenergy, Sustainability, and Land-Use Change Report

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pennycook, Steve

    designs. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Review. ORNL Presentations: February 2-4 ­ Esther Parish "Sustainability, Ecosystem Services, and Bioenergy Development across the Americas" Project. February 27 ­ UpdateCenter for BioEnergy Sustainability http://www.ornl.gov/cbes/ 1 Bioenergy, Sustainability, and Land

  17. Palynological evidence of climate change and land degradation in the Lake Baringo area, Kenya, East Africa, since AD 1650

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, Kam-biu

    Sciences, School of the Coast and Environment, Louisiana State University, 1002Y Energy, Coast which coincide with the Little Ice Age (LIA) period in Europe. The Baringo record shows that land some of the best archives for paleoenvironmental record in the African tropics (c.f. Battarbee, 2000

  18. Post-doctoral Position Title Quantify the net global climate impacts of past and future land-

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pouyanne, Nicolas

    objective is to make this protocol widely available so that other earth system modeling groups outside uses and land use changes in global earth system models, and test the impact of various implementation

  19. A Conceptual Framework for Estimating Bioenerg-Related Land-Use Change and Its Impacts over Time

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Delucchi, Mark

    2009-01-01

    use change due to biofuel production; • current research onand carbon budgets of biofuel production systems, includinguse change due to biofuel production. As indicated in Table

  20. Constraining uncertainties in climate models using climate change detection techniques

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forest, Chris Eliot.; Allen, Myles R.; Stone, Peter H.; Sokolov, Andrei P.

    Different atmosphere-ocean general circulation models produce significantly different projections of climate change in response to increases in greenhouse gases and aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere. The main reasons ...

  1. A Framework for Modeling Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the US associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources ...

  2. Language acquisition and implication for language change: A computational model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Clark, Robert A J

    1997-01-01

    Computer modeling techniques, when applied to language acquisition problems, give an often unrealized insight into the diachronic change that occurs in language over successive generations. This paper shows that using ...

  3. Technology and Technical Change in the MIT EPPA Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jacoby, Henry D.

    Potential technology change has a strong influence on projections of greenhouse gas emissions and costs of control, and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a common device for studying these phenomena. Using ...

  4. Modeling Water Resource Systems under Climate Change: IGSM-WRS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Strzepek, K.

    Through the integration of a Water Resource System (WRS) component, the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework has been enhanced to study the effects of climate change on managed water-resource systems. ...

  5. Signals from Flavor Changing Interactions in Extended Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laura Reina

    1995-11-06

    In the contest of a Two Higgs Doublet Model without flavor conservation, the presence of Flavor Changing Neutral Scalar Currents may affect in particular the couplings of the top quark. Some ideas on how to look for new signals from Flavor Changing Interactions at the next generation of lepton colliders are presented.

  6. Water Body Temperature Model for Assessing Climate Change Impacts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    climatological data and thermal pollution from river-based power plants to historical river flow data in orderWater Body Temperature Model for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Thermal Cooling Ken Strzepek Climate Change Impacts on Thermal Cooling Ken Strzepek* , Charles Fant* , Yohannes Gebretsadik , Megan

  7. Data Modelling for Analysis of Adaptive Changes in Fly Photoreceptors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Juusola, Mikko

    describe accurately the observed adaptation process at each new level of changing light inputs. GeneralizedData Modelling for Analysis of Adaptive Changes in Fly Photoreceptors Uwe Friederich1,2 , Daniel://www.shef.ac.uk/acse Abstract. Adaptation is a hallmark of sensory processing. We studied neural adaptation in intracellular

  8. Equity Analysis of Land Use and Transport Plans Using an Integrated Spatial Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rodier, Caroline J.; Abraham, John E.; Dix, Brenda N.; Hunt, John Douglas Dr.

    2009-01-01

    period. The land in each LUZ is further partitioned intobe exchanged and consumed in the LUZ where it is produced –from production location LUZ to exchange location LUZ and

  9. The Evaluation of Transportation and Land Use Plans Using Linked Economic and GIS Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnston, Robert A.

    1995-01-01

    urban economyand and economic evaluations. for devlsing andAttempts to base the economic evaluation travel no state isEvaluation of Transportation and Land Use Plans Using Linked Economic

  10. Predicting Land-Ice Retreat and Sea-Level Rise with the Community Earth System Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lipscomb, William

    2012-06-19

    Coastal stakeholders need defensible predictions of 21st century sea-level rise (SLR). IPCC assessments suggest 21st century SLR of {approx}0.5 m under aggressive emission scenarios. Semi-empirical models project SLR of {approx}1 m or more by 2100. Although some sea-level contributions are fairly well constrained by models, others are highly uncertain. Recent studies suggest a potential large contribution ({approx}0.5 m/century) from the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet, linked to changes in Southern Ocean wind stress. To assess the likelihood of fast retreat of marine ice sheets, we need coupled ice-sheet/ocean models that do not yet exist (but are well under way). CESM is uniquely positioned to provide integrated, physics based sea-level predictions.

  11. Meta-analysis of high-latitude nitrogen-addition and warming studies implies ecological mechanisms overlooked by land models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Bouskill, N. J.; Riley, W. J.; Tang, J. Y.

    2014-12-11

    Accurate representation of ecosystem processes in land models is crucial for reducing predictive uncertainty in energy and greenhouse gas feedbacks with the climate. Here we describe an observational and modeling meta-analysis approach to benchmark land models, and apply the method to the land model CLM4.5 with two versions of belowground biogeochemistry. We focused our analysis on the aboveground and belowground responses to warming and nitrogen addition in high-latitude ecosystems, and identified absent or poorly parameterized mechanisms in CLM4.5. While the two model versions predicted similar soil carbon stock trajectories following both warming and nitrogen addition, other predicted variables (e.g., belowgroundmore »respiration) differed from observations in both magnitude and direction, indicating that CLM4.5 has inadequate underlying mechanisms for representing high-latitude ecosystems. On the basis of observational synthesis, we attribute the model–observation differences to missing representations of microbial dynamics, aboveground and belowground coupling, and nutrient cycling, and we use the observational meta-analysis to discuss potential approaches to improving the current models. However, we also urge caution concerning the selection of data sets and experiments for meta-analysis. For example, the concentrations of nitrogen applied in the synthesized field experiments (average = 72 kg ha-1 yr-1) are many times higher than projected soil nitrogen concentrations (from nitrogen deposition and release during mineralization), which precludes a rigorous evaluation of the model responses to likely nitrogen perturbations. Overall, we demonstrate that elucidating ecological mechanisms via meta-analysis can identify deficiencies in ecosystem models and empirical experiments.« less

  12. Changes in Model Lung Surfactant Monolayers Induced by Palmitic Acid

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zasadzinski, Joseph A.

    Changes in Model Lung Surfactant Monolayers Induced by Palmitic Acid Frank Bringezu, Junqi Ding of model lung surfactant lipid monolayers. Adding increasing fractions of palmitic acid (PA) to a 77/23 (wt to the rational design of replacement lung surfactants for the treatment of respiratory distress syndrome

  13. STOCHASTIC MODELING OF HURRICANE DAMAGE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katz, Richard

    STOCHASTIC MODELING OF HURRICANE DAMAGE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE Rick Katz Institute for Study from Hurricanes (2) Stochastic Model for Damage (3) Effects of El Nińo (4) Trends in Extreme Hurricanes (5) Unresolved Issues #12;(1) Economic Damage from Hurricanes · Data -- Pielke and Landsea (1998) Web

  14. Meta-analysis of high-latitude nitrogen-addition and warming studies imply ecological mechanisms overlooked by land models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Bouskill, N. J.; Riley, W. J.; Tang, J.

    2014-08-18

    Accurate representation of ecosystem processes in land models is crucial for reducing predictive uncertainty in energy and greenhouse gas feedbacks with the atmosphere. Here we describe an observational and modeling meta-analysis approach to benchmark land models, and apply the method to the land model CLM4.5 with two versions of belowground biogeochemistry. We focused our analysis on the above and belowground high-latitude ecosystem responses to warming and nitrogen addition, and identified mechanisms absent, or poorly parameterized in CLM4.5. While the two model versions predicted similar trajectories for soil carbon stocks following both types of perturbation, other variables (e.g., belowground respiration) differedmore »from the observations in both magnitude and direction, indicating the underlying mechanisms are inadequate for representing high-latitude ecosystems. The observational synthesis attribute these differences to missing representations of microbial dynamics, characterization of above and belowground functional processes, and nutrient competition. We use the observational meta-analyses to discuss potential approaches to improving the current models (e.g., the inclusion of dynamic vegetation or different microbial functional guilds), however, we also raise a cautionary note on the selection of data sets and experiments to be included in a meta-analysis. For example, the concentrations of nitrogen applied in the synthesized field experiments (average =72 kg ha-1 yr-1) are many times higher than projected soil nitrogen concentrations (from nitrogen deposition and release during mineralization), which preclude a rigorous evaluation of the model responses to nitrogen perturbation. Overall, we demonstrate here that elucidating ecological mechanisms via meta-analysis can identify deficiencies in both ecosystem models and empirical experiments.« less

  15. Modeling the Effects of Irrigation on Land Surface Fluxes and States over the Conterminous United States: Sensitivity to Input Data and Model Parameters

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Sacks, William J.; Lei, Huimin; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-09-16

    Previous studies on irrigation impacts on land surface fluxes/states were mainly conducted as sensitivity experiments, with limited analysis of uncertainties from the input data and model irrigation schemes used. In this study, we calibrated and evaluated the performance of irrigation water use simulated by the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) against observations from agriculture census. We investigated the impacts of irrigation on land surface fluxes and states over the conterminous United States (CONUS) and explored possible directions of improvement. Specifically, we found large uncertainty in the irrigation area data from two widely used sources and CLM4 tended to produce unrealistically large temporal variations of irrigation demand for applications at the water resources region scale over CONUS. At seasonal to interannual time scales, the effects of irrigation on surface energy partitioning appeared to be large and persistent, and more pronounced in dry than wet years. Even with model calibration to yield overall good agreement with the irrigation amounts from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), differences between the two irrigation area datasets still dominate the differences in the interannual variability of land surface response to irrigation. Our results suggest that irrigation amount simulated by CLM4 can be improved by (1) calibrating model parameter values to account for regional differences in irrigation demand and (2) accurate representation of the spatial distribution and intensity of irrigated areas.

  16. One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voisin, Nathalie; Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Tesfa, Teklu K.; Li, Hongyi; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-11-18

    An integrated model is being developed to advance our understanding of the interactions between human activities, terrestrial system and water cycle, and how system interactions will be affected by a changing climate at the regional scale. As a first step towards that goal, a global integrated assessment model including a waterdemand model is coupled offline with a land surface hydrology – routing – water resources management model. A spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to project the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and subbasin representation. The model demonstrated reasonable ability to represent the historical flow regulation and water supply over the Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi and Ohio). Implications for the future flow regulation, water supply and supply deficit are investigated using a climate change projection with the B1 emission scenario which affects both natural flow and water demand. Over the Midwest, changes in flow regulation are mostly driven by the change in natural flow due to the limited storage capacity over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi river basins. The changes in flow and demand have a combined effect on the Missouri Summer regulated flow. The supply deficit tends to be driven by the change in flow over the region. Spatial analysis demonstrates the relationship between the supply deficit and the change in demand over urban areas not along a main river or with limited storage, and over areas upstream of groundwater dependent fields with therefore overestimated demand.

  17. EA-1936: Proposed Changes to Parcel ED-1 Land Uses, Utility Infrastructure, and Natural Area Management Responsibility, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    NOTE: This EA has been cancelled. This EA will evaluate the environmental impacts of DOE’s proposed modifications to the allowable land uses, utility infrastructure, and Natural Area management responsibility for Parcel ED-1. The purpose of the modifications is to enhance the development potential of the Horizon Center business/industrial park, while ensuring protection of the adjacent Natural Area. The area addressed by the proposed action was evaluated for various industrial/business uses in the Environmental Assessment Addendum for the Proposed Title Transfer of Parcel ED-1, DOE/EA-1113-A.

  18. Archaeology in the Kilauea East Rift Zone: Part 1, Land-use model and research design, Kapoho, Kamaili and Kilauea Geothermal Subzones, Puna District, Hawaii Island

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burtchard, G.C.; Moblo, P.

    1994-07-01

    The Puna Geothermal Resource Subzones (GRS) project area encompasses approximately 22,000 acres centered on the Kilauea East Rift Zone in Puna District, Hawaii Island. The area is divided into three subzones proposed for geothermal power development -- Kilauea Middle East Rift, Kamaili and Kapoho GRS. Throughout the time of human occupation, eruptive episodes along the rift have maintained a dynamic landscape. Periodic volcanic events, for example, have changed the coastline configuration, altered patterns of agriculturally suitable sediments, and created an assortment of periodically active, periodically quiescent, volcanic hazards. Because of the active character of the rift zone, then, the area`s occupants have always been obliged to organize their use of the landscape to accommodate a dynamic mosaic of lava flow types and ages. While the specific configuration of settlements and agricultural areas necessarily changed in response to volcanic events, it is possible to anticipate general patterns in the manner in which populations used the landscape through time. This research design offers a model that predicts the spatial results of long-term land-use patterns and relates them to the character of the archaeological record of that use. In essence, the environmental/land-use model developed here predicts that highest population levels, and hence the greatest abundance and complexity of identifiable prehistoric remains, tended to cluster near the coast at places that maximized access to productive fisheries and agricultural soils. With the possible exception of a few inland settlements, the density of archaeological remains expected to decrease with distance from the coastline. The pattern is generally supported in the regions existing ethnohistoric and archaeological record.

  19. Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Snow Observations into the NSIPP Land Surface Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Walker, Jeff

    Walker, UMBC-GEST/Hydrological Sciences Branch, cejpw@land.gsfc.nasa.gov Paul Houser and James Foster, Laboratory for Hydrospheric Processes NASA/GSFC, Paul.Houser@gsfc.nasa.gov, jfoster with observations. 2. Snow observation data Dr Foster has commenced work on the processing of SMMR and SSM/I passive

  20. Changes in soil organic carbon storage predicted by Earth system models during the 21st century

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2013-01-01

    carbon changes in Earth system models K. E. O. Todd-Brown etcarbon changes in Earth system models K. E. O. Todd-Brown etcarbon changes in Earth system models K. E. O. Todd-Brown et

  1. Mapping the Potential for Biofuel Production on Marginal Lands: Differences in Definitions, Data and Models across Scales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lewis, Sarah M

    2014-01-01

    availability for biofuel production. Environ. Sci. Technol.of land available for biofuel production. Environ. Sci.the Potential for Biofuel Production on Marginal Lands:

  2. Sensitivity of Surface Flux Simulations to Hydrologic Parameters Based on an Uncertainty Quantification Framework Applied to the Community Land Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Lin, Guang; Ricciuto, Daniel M.

    2012-08-10

    Uncertainties in hydrologic parameters could have significant impacts on the simulated water and energy fluxes and land surface states, which will in turn affect atmospheric processes and the carbon cycle. Quantifying such uncertainties is an important step toward better understanding and quantification of uncertainty of integrated earth system models. In this paper, we introduce an uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework to analyze sensitivity of simulated surface fluxes to selected hydrologic parameters in the Community Land Model (CLM4) through forward modeling. Thirteen flux tower footprints spanning a wide range of climate and site conditions were selected to perform sensitivity analyses by perturbing the parameters identified. In the UQ framework, prior information about the parameters was used to quantify the input uncertainty using the Minimum-Relative-Entropy approach. The quasi-Monte Carlo approach was applied to generate samples of parameters on the basis of the prior pdfs. Simulations corresponding to sampled parameter sets were used to generate response curves and response surfaces and statistical tests were used to rank the significance of the parameters for output responses including latent (LH) and sensible heat (SH) fluxes. Overall, the CLM4 simulated LH and SH show the largest sensitivity to subsurface runoff generation parameters. However, study sites with deep root vegetation are also affected by surface runoff parameters, while sites with shallow root zones are also sensitive to the vadose zone soil water parameters. Generally, sites with finer soil texture and shallower rooting systems tend to have larger sensitivity of outputs to the parameters. Our results suggest the necessity of and possible ways for parameter inversion/calibration using available measurements of latent/sensible heat fluxes to obtain the optimal parameter set for CLM4. This study also provided guidance on reduction of parameter set dimensionality and parameter calibration framework design for CLM4 and other land surface models under different hydrologic and climatic regimes.

  3. Chapter 1: Modelling Past Environmental Changes Using Lake Sediment Records

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Short, Daniel

    1 Chapter 1: Modelling Past Environmental Changes Using Lake Sediment Records 1.1 Data Collection metals. These include lake sediments (Haworth and Lund, 1984), peat bogs (Shotyk et al., 1998), ice sediments and peat bogs (Dörr et al., 1991; Evans et al., 1986; Farmer et al., 1997; Hamilton-Taylor, 1988

  4. A Model for Compound Type Changes Encountered in Schema Evolution

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

    in relational database systems, making schema evolution a more difficult problem. With persistent programmingA Model for Compound Type Changes Encountered in Schema Evolution Barbara Staudt Lerner Computer Science Department University of Massachusetts, Amherst June 12, 1996 Abstract Schema evolution

  5. A quantitative analysis of the impact of land use changes on floods in the Manafwa River Basin

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bingwa, Fidele

    2013-01-01

    Flood events in the Manafwa watershed, located in eastern Uganda, have increased in frequency in recent years. The risk of flooding is increasing globally due partly to climate change which enhances the number of weather ...

  6. The New Sundanese Peasants' Union: Peasant Movements, Changes in Land Control, and Agrarian Questions in Garut, West Java

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fauzi, Noer

    2005-01-01

    and changing agrarian structures in various regions, as wellagrarian/natural resources to date has caused a decrease in environmental quality and a lack of balance in the structure

  7. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Raymond S. Bradley; Henry F. Diaz

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earthâ??s climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  8. Opportunities to improve impact, integration, and evaluation of land change models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brown, Daniel G.

    Council, 500 Fifth Street NW, Washington, DC 20001, USA Corresponding author: Brown, Daniel G (danbrown

  9. Comparison of land use change models with focus on spatial and temporal frameworks and data issues

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Clarke, Keith

    Other Urban (Open space, Transportation) Cropland Agriculture Orchard Deciduous Forest Evergreen Non kinds of data with high thematic requirements 4. Focus of my research: Mapping of urban areas using services and office Light industry/warehousing Heavy industryIndustrial Industrial/Research park URBAN

  10. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01

    of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse GasesLife-Cycle Assessment of Biofuels. Environmental Science &cellulosic ethanol. Biotechnol Biofuels 6 (1), 51. Elliott,

  11. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Impacts of United States Biofuel Policies: The Importance ofcoproduct substitution in the biofuel era. Agribusiness 27 (CGE: assessing the EU biofuel mandates with the MIRAGE-BioF

  12. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01

    an increase in biofuel production. According to several;emissions from ILUC. Biofuel production also affects foodfrom increased biofuel production. AEZ- EF takes the GTAP

  13. Results from the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) and availability of the data on the Earth System Grid (ESG)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2007-01-01

    and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Scienceincluded in the new Earth System Models (ESMs) participating

  14. An Interactive Multi-Model for Consensus on Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kocarev, Ljupco

    2014-07-02

    This project purports to develop a new scheme for forming consensus among alternative climate models, that give widely divergent projections as to the details of climate change, that is more intelligent than simply averaging the model outputs, or averaging with ex post facto weighting factors. The method under development effectively allows models to assimilate data from one another in run time with weights that are chosen in an adaptive training phase using 20th century data, so that the models synchronize with one another as well as with reality. An alternate approach that is being explored in parallel is the automated combination of equations from different models in an expert-system-like framework.

  15. Effects of urban land cover modifications in a mesoscale meteorological model on surface temperature and heat fluxes in the Phoenix metropolitan area.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hall, Sharon J.

    Effects of urban land cover modifications in a mesoscale meteorological model on surface between the two simulations. Mesoscale atmospheric models such as the Pennsylvania State University for the Phoenix metropolitan area was implemented in the fifth- generation PSU/NCAR mesoscale meteorological model

  16. Forest cover, carbon sequestration, and wildlife habitat: policy review and modeling of tradeoffs among land-use

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rissman, Adena

    Forest cover, carbon sequestration, and wildlife habitat: policy review and modeling of tradeoffs and services, including timber production, carbon sequestration and storage, scenic amenities, and wildlife habitat. International efforts to mitigate climate change through forest carbon sequestration

  17. A modelling approach to carbon, water and energy feedbacks and interactions across the land-atmosphere interface. 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hill, Timothy C

    2007-01-01

    The climate is changing and the rate of this change is expected to increase. In the 20th century global surface temperatures rose by 0.6 (±0.2) K. Based on current model predictions, and economic forecasts, global temperature ...

  18. How can we use MODIS land surface temperature to validate long-term urban model simulations?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hu, Leiqiu; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Barlage, Michael; Wilhelmi, Olga V.

    2014-03-27

    performed over metropolitan Houston for 2003–2012, preceded by a 1 year (2002) “spin-up” period to allow the soil temperature and moisture states to equilibrate [Chen et al., 2007]. The upper boundary conditions for HRLDAS were derived from one-eighth degree... hourly meteorological data from the North American Land Data Assimilation Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) [Cosgrove et al., 2003; Xia et al., 2012] forcing data set. It was assumed that watering and irrigation was applied to all vegetated surfaces, a process...

  19. Land-ice modeling for sea-level prediction (Technical Report) | SciTech

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefieldSulfate Reducing(Journalspectroscopy of aerosols(TechnicalConnect Technical Report: Land-ice

  20. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gutowski, William J.

    2013-02-07

    The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

  1. Irrigation cooling effect: Regional climate forcing by land-use change Lara M. Kueppers,1,2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kueppers, Lara M.

    records has mostly focused on the influence of urban heat islands. Here we use a regional climate model to show that a regional irrigation cooling effect (ICE) exists, opposite in sign to urban heat island on the influence of urban heat islands [Kalnay and Cai, 2003; Parker, 2004; Trenberth, 2004]. However, irrigated

  2. Changes in soil organic carbon storage predicted by Earth system models during the 21st century

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2013-01-01

    carbon changes in Earth system models K. E. O. Todd-Brown etcarbon changes in Earth system models K. E. O. Todd-Brown etDiscussion Paper CMIP5 Earth system models and comparison

  3. Modeling landslide occurrence and impacts in a changing climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Leidy, Erin, S.M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2014-01-01

    In the coming years and decades, shifts in weather, population, land use, and other human factors are expected to have an impact on the occurrence and severity of landslides. A landslide inventory database from Switzerland ...

  4. Bioenergy and the importance of land use policy in a carbon-constrained world

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Edmonds, James A.; Wise, Marshall A.

    2010-06-01

    Policies aimed at limiting anthropogenic climate change would result in significant transformations of the energy and land-use systems. However, increasing the demand for bioenergy could have a tremendous impact on land use, and can result in land clearing and deforestation. Wise et al. (2009a,b) analyzed an idealized policy to limit the indirect land use change emissions from bioenergy. The policy, while effective, would be difficult, if not impossible, to implement in the real world. In this paper, we consider several different land use policies that deviate from this first-best, using the Joint Global Change Research Institute’s Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Specifically, these new frameworks are (1) a policy that focuses on just the above-ground or vegetative terrestrial carbon rather than the total carbon, (2) policies that focus exclusively on incentivizing and protecting forestland, and (3) policies that apply an economic penalty on the use of biomass as a proxy to limit indirect land use change emissions. For each policy, we examine its impact on land use, land-use change emissions, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, agricultural supply, and food prices.

  5. THE CARBON-LAND MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT (C-LAMP): A PROTOTYPE FOR COUPLED BIOSPHERE-ATMOSPHERE MODEL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoffman, Forrest M.

    often referred to as Earth System Models (ESMs). While a number of terrestrial and ocean carbon models

  6. Modeled climate change effects on distributions of Canadian butterfly species

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peterson, A. Townsend; Martí nez-Meyer, Enrique; Gonzá lez-Salazar, Constantino; Hall, Peter W.

    2004-07-30

    for approaches Can. J. Zool. 82: 851–858 (2004) doi: 10.1139/Z04-064 © 2004 NRC Canada 851 Received 22 July 2003. Accepted 21 May 2004. Published on the NRC Research Press Web site at http://cjz.nrc.ca on 30 July 2004. A.T. Peterson. 1 Natural History Museum...-Cordero, V., Soberon, J., Bartley, J., Buddemeier, R.H., and Navarro-Siguenza, A.G. 2001. Effects of global climate change on geographic distributions of Mexican Cracidae. Ecol. Model. 144: 21–30. Peterson, A.T., Ball, L.G., and Cohoon, K.C. 2002a. Predicting...

  7. Modeling U.S. Energy Use Changes with Global Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadley, Stanton W; Erickson III, David J; Hernandez Figueroa, Jose L

    2006-09-01

    Using a general circulation model of Earth climate (PCM-IBIS) to drive an energy use model (DD-NEMS), we calculated the energy use changes for each year from 2003-2025 for the nine U.S. Census regions. We used five scenarios: 1) a reference with no change in temperatures from the 1970-2003 average, 2) a gradual 1 F rise in temperature by 2025, 3) a gradual 3 F rise by 2025, 4) a climate simulation with low temperature response to CO2 doubling in the atmosphere, and 5) a climate simulation with a more extreme response. The low-?T scenario had a cumulative reduction in energy of 2.1 Quads but an increase in cost of $14.8 billion. The northern states had reductions in cost over the entire period, but most other regions had increases in costs because increases in cooling costs outweighed reductions in heating and other energy uses. Higher temperature sensitivity resulted in increased warming, especially in the winter months. Because heating needs decreased, total energy requirements declined by a cumulative 4.2 Quads. However, total cost still increased $6.1 billion and carbon emissions still rose as coal-based electricity for cooling needs grew.

  8. Modeling of Damage, Permeability Changes and Pressure Responses during Excavation of the TSX Tunnel in Granitic Rock at URL, Canada

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutqvist, Jonny

    2009-01-01

    Modeling of Damage, Permeability Changes and Pressureof excavation-induced damage, permeability changes, andrange of approaches to model damage and permeability changes

  9. The agroecological matrix as alternative to the land-sparing/agriculture intensi cation model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and inextricable com- ponent of the biodiversity conservation agenda. The Forest Transition Model The European for labor, which depopulates the countryside

  10. Multiobjective calibration and sensitivity of a distributed land surface water and energy balance model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Houser, Paul R; Gupta, Hoshin V; Shuttleworth, W. James; Famiglietti, James S

    2001-01-01

    identification and energy balance models on a tallgrassdata for surface energy balance evaluation of a semiaridWatershed. We are energy balance components over a semiarid

  11. LARGE REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENTS, SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY, AND INTEGRATED LAND USE AND TRANSPORTATION MODELING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Clay, Michael J; Johnston, Robert A.

    2008-01-01

    LARGE REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENTS, SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY, ANDfor than others)? Large real estate construction projectsneed to model large real estate developments, several types

  12. Modeling and Remote Sensing of Urban Land-Atmosphere Interactions with a Focus on Urban Irrigation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vahmani, Pouya

    2014-01-01

    representation of both water and energy fluxes is criticalemployed to quantify water and energy cycle fluxes in urban2008), Linking urban water balance and energy balance models

  13. Enhancing Requirements and Change Management through Process Modelling and Measurement1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Valetto, Giuseppe "Peppo"

    Enhancing Requirements and Change Management through Process Modelling and Measurement1 Luigi of requirements and change management. Keywords: requirements management, change management, traceability Lavazza and Giuseppe Valetto CEFRIEL and Politecnico di Milano2 Abstract Effective management

  14. Real-time Global Flood Estimation using Satellite-based Precipitation and a Coupled Land Surface and Routing Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, Huan; Adler, Robert F.; Tian, Yudong; Huffman, George; Li, Hongyi; Wang, Jianjian

    2014-04-09

    A community land surface model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, is coupled with a newly developed hierarchical dominant river tracing-based runoff-routing model to form the Dominant river tracing-Routing Integrated with VIC Environment (DRIVE) model system, which serves as the new core of the real-time Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS). The GFMS uses real-time satellite-based precipitation to derive flood-monitoring parameters for the latitude-band 50{degree sign}N-50{degree sign}S at relatively high spatial (~12km) and temporal (3-hourly) resolution. Examples of model results for recent flood events are computed using the real-time GFMS (http://flood.umd.edu). To evaluate the accuracy of the new GFMS, the DRIVE model is run retrospectively for 15 years using both research-quality and real-time satellite precipitation products. Statistical results are slightly better for the research-quality input and significantly better for longer duration events (three-day events vs. one-day events). Basins with fewer dams tend to provide lower false alarm ratios. For events longer than three days in areas with few dams, the probability of detection is ~0.9 and the false alarm ratio is ~0.6. In general, these statistical results are better than those of the previous system. Streamflow was evaluated at 1,121 river gauges across the quasi-global domain. Validation using real-time precipitation across the tropics (30şS-30şN) gives positive daily Nash-Sutcliffe Coef?cients for 107 out of 375 (28%) stations with a mean of 0.19 and 51% of the same gauges at monthly scale with a mean of 0.33. There were poorer results in higher latitudes, probably due to larger errors in the satellite precipitation input.

  15. A Three-Dimensional Ocean-Seaice-Carbon Cycle Model and its Coupling to a Two-Dimensional Atmospheric Model: Uses in Climate Change Studies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dutkiewicz, Stephanie.

    We describe the coupling of a three-dimensional ocean circulation model, with explicit thermodynamic seaice and ocean carbon cycle representations, to a two-dimensional atmospheric/land model. This coupled system has been ...

  16. Land Use-Transport Interaction Modelling: A Review of the Literature and Future Research Directions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Acheampong, Ransford A.; Silva, Elisabete A.

    2015-01-01

    , consisting of flipping a coin as many times as is necessary to obtain ‘heads’ for the first time. EUT states that the decision maker chooses between risky or uncertain prospects by comparing his or her expected utility values—the weighted sums obtained... for macro-level analysis using simple and tractable math- ematical models and therefore impose relatively low and moderate levels of complexity in operational modeling respectively. Figure 1: Level of aggregation and degree of complexity involved...

  17. Limitations of integrated assessment models of climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ackerman, Frank; DeCanio, Stephen J.; Howarth, Richard B.; Sheeran, Kristen

    2009-01-01

    Climatic Change (2009) 95:297–315 DOI 10.1007/s10584-009-MD 20686-3001, USA Climatic Change (2009) 95:297–315 ofgreenhouse gas (GHG) Climatic Change (2009) 95:297– 315

  18. Modeling and Managing Content Changes in Text Databases Panagiotis G. Ipeirotis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gravano, Luis

    Modeling and Managing Content Changes in Text Databases Panagiotis G. Ipeirotis panos@nyu.edu New hazards re- gression in particular, to model database changes over time and predict when we should update regression model [10], we show that database characteristics can be used to predict the pattern of change

  19. A Prototype Integrated Transportation Land-use Model for the Lausanne Region

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bierlaire, Michel

    of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering Ecole Polytechnique F´ed´erale de Lausanne transp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 3.2 Demographic Transition Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 3.3 Development Project-Morges Region in 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 6 UrbanSim Submodels Estimated for the Lausanne-Morges Re

  20. Harmonization of Land-Use Scenarios for the Period 1500-2100: 600 Years of Global Gridded Annual Land-Use Transitions, Wood Harvest, and Resulting Secondary Lands

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hurtt, George; Chini, Louise Parsons; Frolking, Steve; Betts, Richard; Feddema, Johannes; Fischer, Gavin M.; Fisk, J.P.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Houghton, R. A.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Jones, C.; Kindermann, G.; Kinoshita, Tsuguki; Goldeweijk, Kees K.; Riahi, Keywan; Shevliakova, Elena; Smith, Steven J.; Stehfest, Eike; Thomson, Allison M.; Thornton, P.; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Wang, Y.

    2011-08-08

    In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESM) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005-2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al., 2010). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs.

  1. Final report on "Modeling Diurnal Variations of California Land Biosphere CO2 Fluxes"

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fung, Inez

    2014-07-28

    In Mediterranean climates, the season of water availability (winter) is out of phase with the season of light availability and atmospheric demand for moisture (summer). Multi-year half-hourly observations of sap flow velocities in 26 evergreen trees in a small watershed in Northern California show that different species of evergreen trees have different seasonalities of transpiration: Douglas-firs respond immediately to the first winter rain, while Pacific madrones have peak transpiration in the dry summer. Using these observations, we have derived species-specific parameterization of normalized sap flow velocities in terms of insolation, vapor pressure deficit and near-surface soil moisture. A simple 1-D boundary layer model showed that afternoon temperatures may be higher by 1 degree Celsius in an area with Douglas-firs than with Pacific madrones. The results point to the need to develop a new representation of subsurface moisture, in particular pools beneath the organic soil mantle and the vadose zone. Our ongoing and future work includes coupling our new parameterization of transpiration with new representation of sub-surface moisture in saprolite and weathered bedrock. The results will be implemented in a regional climate model to explore vegetation-climate feedbacks, especially in the dry season.

  2. Results from the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) and availability of the data on the Earth System Grid (ESG)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2007-01-01

    and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Scienceincluded in the new Earth System Models (ESMs) participatingof the C-LAMP model output via the Earth System Grid (ESG).

  3. Impacts of Climate Change on Biofuels Production

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melillo, Jerry M.

    2014-04-30

    The overall goal of this research project was to improve and use our biogeochemistry model, TEM, to simulate the effects of climate change and other environmental changes on the production of biofuel feedstocks. We used the improved version of TEM that is coupled with the economic model, EPPA, a part of MIT’s Earth System Model, to explore how alternative uses of land, including land for biofuels production, can help society meet proposed climate targets. During the course of this project, we have made refinements to TEM that include development of a more mechanistic plant module, with improved ecohydrology and consideration of plant-water relations, and a more detailed treatment of soil nitrogen dynamics, especially processes that add or remove nitrogen from ecosystems. We have documented our changes to TEM and used the model to explore the effects on production in land ecosystems, including changes in biofuels production.

  4. Water Resources and Climate Change in Garden Park, Colorado

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baffa, Thomas W.

    2009-12-18

    This paper examines whether groundwater can provide adequate water supplies for land use change and future development in Garden Park, Colorado. A climatic water budget model was used to determine the amount and adequacy of the groundwater supply...

  5. Modeling Structural Changes in Market Demand and Supply 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Park, Beom Su

    2011-10-21

    Economic events may cause structural changes in markets. To know the effect of the economic event we should analyze the structural changes in the market demand and supply. The purpose of this dissertation is to analyze the ...

  6. Future land use plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-08-31

    The US Department of Energy`s (DOE) changing mission, coupled with the need to apply appropriate cleanup standards for current and future environmental restoration, prompted the need for a process to determine preferred Future Land Uses for DOE-owned sites. DOE began the ``Future Land Use`` initiative in 1994 to ensure that its cleanup efforts reflect the surrounding communities` interests in future land use. This plan presents the results of a study of stakeholder-preferred future land uses for the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), located in central Long Island, New York. The plan gives the Laboratory`s view of its future development over the next 20 years, as well as land uses preferred by the community were BNL ever to cease operations as a national laboratory (the post-BNL scenario). The plan provides an overview of the physical features of the site including its history, topography, geology/hydrogeology, biological inventory, floodplains, wetlands, climate, and atmosphere. Utility systems and current environmental operations are described including waste management, waste water treatment, hazardous waste management, refuse disposal and ground water management. To complement the physical descriptions of the site, demographics are discussed, including overviews of the surrounding areas, laboratory population, and economic and non-economic impacts.

  7. The Sensitivity of Latent Heat Flux to Changes in the Radiative Forcing: A Framework for Comparing Models and Observations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

    A climate model must include an accurate surface physics scheme in order to examine the interactions between the land and atmosphere. Given an increase in the surface radiative forcing, the sensitivity of latent heat flux ...

  8. Modeling the per capita ecological footprint for Dallas County, Texas: Examining demographic, environmental value, land-use, and spatial influences 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ryu, Hyung Cheal

    2005-08-29

    This study addresses factors driving the variation in the per capita Ecological Footprint (EF) in Dallas County, Texas. A main hypothesis was that scientifically estimated demography, environmental values, spatial attributes, and land-use patterns...

  9. Land use and land cover change: the effects of woody plant encroachment and prescribed fire on biodiversity and ecosystem carbon dynamics in a southern great plains mixed grass savanna 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hollister, Emily Brooke

    2009-05-15

    treatments. Whole community estimates of herbaceous ANPP were obtained by summing individual functional group ANPP values. This approach was used to capture small, but important periods of productivity which might otherwise be masked by functional groups... stream_source_info HOLLISTER-DISSERTATION.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 280672 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name HOLLISTER-DISSERTATION.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 LAND...

  10. Modeling U.S. water resources under climate change*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    -driven, the Program uses extensive Earth system and economic data and models to produce quantitative analysis of the Program's work lies MIT's Integrated Global System Model. Through this integrated model, the Program seeks interactions. We demonstrate a new modeling system that integrates cli- matic and hydrological determinants

  11. Internationalization, search, and change: an organizational learning model of strategic change in the pharmaceutical industry 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miller, Toyah L.

    2009-05-15

    that innovation capabilities enhance the relationship between strategic change and firm performance. These questions are examined using longitudinal data on pharmaceutical firms. The findings from this analysis reveal that internationalization has a curvilinear...

  12. Interactive chemistry and climate models in global change studies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Chien.; Prinn, Ronald G.

    Continually increasing atmospheric concentrations of radiatively important chemical species such as CO2, CH4, N2O, tropospheric O3, and certain halocarbons most likely will cause future climate changes, which could in turn ...

  13. Modeling of LNG Pool Spreading and Vaporization 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Basha, Omar 1988-

    2012-11-20

    In this work, a source term model for estimating the rate of spreading and vaporization of LNG on land and sea is introduced. The model takes into account the composition changes of the boiling mixture, the varying thermodynamic properties due...

  14. A Dynamic Simulation of the Indirect Land Use Implications of Recent Biofuel Production and Use in the United States.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oladosu, Gbadebo A; Kline, Keith L

    2013-01-01

    The global indirect land use change (ILUC) implications of biofuel use in the United States of America (USA) from 2001 to 2010 are evaluated with a dynamic general equilibrium model. The effects of biofuels production on agricultural land area vary by year; from a net expansion of 0.17 ha per 1000 gallons produced (2002) to a net contraction of 0.13 ha per 1000 gallons (2018) in Case 1 of our simulation. In accordance with the general narrative about the implications of biofuel policy, agricultural land area increased in many regions of the world. However, oil-export dependent economies experienced agricultural land contraction because of reductions in their revenues. Reducing crude oil imports is a major goal of biofuel policy, but the land use change implications have received little attention in the literature. Simulations evaluating the effects of doubling supply elasticities for land and fossil resources show that these parameters can significantly influence the land use change estimates. Therefore, research that provides empirically-based and spatially-detailed agricultural land-supply curves and capability to project future fossil energy prices is critical for improving estimates of the effects of biofuel policy on land use.

  15. Climate change and uncertainty in ecological niche modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alvarez, Otto

    2011-01-01

    in California." Journal of Climate 8(3): 606- Elith, J. , C.vegetation model for use with climate models: concepts andthe suitability of spatial climate data sets." International

  16. Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pindyck, Robert S.

    Very little. A plethora of integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been constructed and used to estimate the social cost of carbon (SCC) and evaluate alternative abatement policies. These models have crucial flaws that ...

  17. Mathematical Models and Numerical Solutions of Liquid-Solid and Solid-Liquid Phase Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Surana, Karan S.; Joy, Aaron; Quiros, Luis; Reddy, JN

    2015-04-01

    This paper presents numerical simulations of liquid-solid and solid-liquid phase change processes using mathematical models in Lagrangian and Eulerian descriptions. The mathematical models are derived by assuming a smooth ...

  18. Mathematical Models and Numerical Simulations of phase change in Lagrangian and Eulerian descriptions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Quiros Fonseca, Luis Alonso

    2012-12-31

    This thesis presents development of mathematical models for liquid-solid and solid-liquid phase change phenomena in Lagrangian and Eulerian descriptions. The mathematical models are derived by assuming a smooth interface ...

  19. Change Management in Enterprise IT Systems: Process Modeling and Capacity-optimal Scheduling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sarkar, Saswati

    Change Management in Enterprise IT Systems: Process Modeling and Capacity-optimal Scheduling of the optimal fluid scheduling policy, which is well suited for application to a real change management system management ­ or handling of problem diagnosis and root cause analysis, and (ii) Change management ­ or timely

  20. Blood Pressure and Blood Flow Variation during Postural Change from Sitting to Standing: Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Blood Pressure and Blood Flow Variation during Postural Change from Sitting to Standing: Model- tural change from sitting to standing involve complex interactions between the autonomic nervous system cerebral artery blood flow velocity during postural change from sitting to standing. Our cardiovascular

  1. Modeling Cerebral Blood Flow Control During Posture Change from Sitting to Standing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Modeling Cerebral Blood Flow Control During Posture Change from Sitting to Standing Mette Olufsen that can predict blood flow and pressure during posture change from sitting to standing. The mathematical flow ve- locity during postural change from sitting to standing. The most important short term

  2. Presented by LandScan Population Research

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    by UT-Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy Bhaduri_LandScan_SC10 Kosovo Refugee Crisis 1998 May 25 of Energy Bhaduri_LandScan_SC10 What is LandScan? Population distribution model, database, and tool people are located #12;3 Managed by UT-Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy Bhaduri_LandScan_SC10

  3. Asymmetric response of maximum and minimum temperatures to soil emissivity change over the Northern African Sahel in a GCM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhou, Liming

    Asymmetric response of maximum and minimum temperatures to soil emissivity change over the Northern in the Sahel could lead to reduced land surface emissivity and thus might have an asymmetric impact on daytime balance to changes in soil emissivity over the Sahel using the recently developed Community Land Model

  4. Higher surface ozone concentrations over the Chesapeake Bay than over the adjacent land: Observations and models from the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dickerson, Russell R.

    , in high enough concentrations, is a hazardous secondary air pollutant regulated by the United States t s Observations of ozone are higher over the Chesapeake Bay than areas upwind on land. Dry deposition rates, slower dry deposition rates, and other lesser mechanisms, contribute to the local maximum of ozone over

  5. Modeling the Summertime Climate of Southwest Asia: The Role of Land Surface Processes in Shaping the Climate of Semiarid Regions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marcella, Marc P.

    Presented is a study on the role of land surface processes in determining the summertime climate over the semiarid region of southwest Asia. In this region, a warm surface air temperature bias of 3.5°C is simulated in the ...

  6. Identifying Potential Land Use-derived Solute Sources to Stream Baseflow Using Ground Water Models and GIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to assess the impact of different baseflow solute contributions to surface water chemistry. Numerous field systems, locations of oil brine fields and high- density human populations) likely exist. Impacts of otherBoutt 1 Identifying Potential Land Use-derived Solute Sources to Stream Baseflow Using Ground Water

  7. Engineering change modelling using a function-behaviour-structure scheme

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamraz, Bahram

    2013-11-12

    Institution. This thesis contains 78 figures, 20 tables and fewer than 70,000 words. Some of the work contained in this dissertation has been published and presented as below. ? B.Hamraz, N.H.M.Caldwell, D.C.Wynn, and P.J.Clarkson, (2013): Requirements... of Literature in Engineering Change Management. Systems Engineering 16 (4). ? B.Hamraz, O.Hisarciklilar, K.Rahmani, D.C.Wynn, V.Thomson, and P.J.Clarkson, (2013): Change Prediction Using Interface Data. Concurrent Engineering 21 (2), pp. 139-154. ? B...

  8. Modeling and Managing Content Changes in Text Databases Panagiotis G. Ipeirotis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Modeling and Managing Content Changes in Text Databases Panagiotis G. Ipeirotis Alexandros Ntoulas" techniques in general, and Cox's proportional hazards re- gression in particular, to model database changes Abstract Large amounts of (often valuable) information are stored in web-accessible text databases

  9. Modeling and Managing Content Changes in Text Databases Panagiotis G. Ipeirotis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cho, Junghoo "John"

    Modeling and Managing Content Changes in Text Databases Panagiotis G. Ipeirotis Alexandros Ntoulas, to model database changes over time and predict when we should update each content sum- mary. Finally, we-accessible text databases. "Metasearchers" pro- vide unified interfaces to query multiple such databases at once

  10. Modelling the reorientation of sea-ice faults as the wind changes direction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feltham, Daniel

    Modelling the reorientation of sea-ice faults as the wind changes direction Alexander V. WILCHINSKY-1290, USA ABSTRACT. A discrete-element model of sea ice is used to study how a 908 change in wind direction alters the pattern of faults generated through mechanical failure of the ice. The sea-ice domain is 400

  11. Modeling and Generating Daily Changes in Market Variables Using A Multivariate Mixture of Normal Distributions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Jin

    Modeling and Generating Daily Changes in Market Variables Using A Multivariate Mixture of Normal of the normal distribution for modeling of daily changes in market variables with fatter-than-normal tails is to transform (linearly) a multivariate normalwith an input covariance matrix into the desired multivariate

  12. Terry Land

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home RoomPreservationBio-Inspired Solar FuelTechnologyTel: Name: Rm. Tel: Location:TerrachanicsTerry Land

  13. Energyenvironment policy modeling of endogenous technological change with personal vehicles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    - producing activity (notably fossil fuel consumption) and the level of emissions. They define abatement cost-down modelers focus on estimating aggregate price­quan- tity relationships between the cost of emission to acquiring low-GHG technologies and top- down modelers suggesting price-based policies like taxes

  14. Explicitly Accounting for Protected Lands within the GCAM 3.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dooley, James J.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2012-05-01

    The Global Change Assessment Model Version 3.0 defines three different levels of “Protected Lands” within the agricultural and landuse component. These three different scenarios effectively cordon off 3.5% (5.0 million km2) of the Earth’s terrestrial lands in the de minimus Protected Land Scenario, 5.0% (7.20 million km2) in the Core Protected Land Scenario, and 8.2% (11.8 million km2) in the Expanded Protected Land Scenario. None of these scenarios represents the “right” level of Protected Lands for the planet today or tomorrow. Rather, the goal is to create a range of scenarios that can be used in modeling human responses to climate change and the impact those would have on managed and unmanaged terrestrial lands. These scenarios harness the wealth of information in the United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre’s World Database on Protected Areas and its categories of explicit degrees of protection.

  15. Microsoft Word - MSA - Theory of Change Logic Model (1).docx

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    LANL: CPO, 1-15-2013, Working Draft CGA-CPO, LANL Math and Science Academy (MSA) - Program Model Resources Concrete Activity Short Term Outcomes Long Term Outcomes Impacts LANL...

  16. Limitations of integrated assessment models of climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ackerman, Frank; DeCanio, Stephen J.; Howarth, Richard B.; Sheeran, Kristen

    2009-01-01

    cost-effective technologies into climate models that yieldcosts of climate policy depend heavily on how technology andTechnology forecasts: not so bright IAMs simulate the macroeconomic impacts of climate

  17. Population and Climate Change:Population and Climate Change: Coupling Population Models withCoupling Population Models with

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maryland at College Park, University of

    carbon over the next 40 years as adopting low-carbon technologies Concluded: Family planning is cost / Capita Resource Use / Capita Emissions produced / Capita Waste produced / Capita Economic expansion / Capita Outputs: 1. Emissions CO2, Methane, etc 2. Waste Products Garbage, Toxics, etc 3. Surface Changes

  18. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nazarenko, L.; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Trinnovim LLC, New York, NY; Kelley, M.; Trinnovim LLC, New York, NY; Ruedy, R.; Trinnovim LLC, New York, NY; et al

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmosphericmore »version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5°#2;C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2#2;°C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5°#2;C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO?, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R climate model produces a complete shutdown of deep water formation in the North Atlantic.« less

  19. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; Bleck, R.; Canuto, V.; Cheng, Y.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A. D.; Faluvegi, G.; Hansen, J. E.; Healy, R. J.; Kiang, N. Y.; Koch, D.; Lacis, A. A.; LeGrande, A. N.; Lerner, J.; Lo, K. K.; Menon, S.; Oinas, V.; Perlwitz, J.; Puma, M. J.; Rind, D.; Romanou, A.; Sato, M.; Shindell, D. T.; Sun, S.; Tsigaridis, K.; Unger, N.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yao, M. -S.; Zhang, Jinlun

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5°#2;C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2#2;°C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5°#2;C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO?, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R climate model produces a complete shutdown of deep water formation in the North Atlantic.

  20. Modeling the Changing Earth System: Prospects and Challenges

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home Room NewsInformationJessework uses concrete7 AssessmentBusinessAlternativeModelModelingArgonneBill

  1. Multi-century Changes to Global Climate and Carbon Cycle: Results from a Coupled Climate and Carbon Cycle Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Mirin, A; Wickett, M; Delire, C

    2005-02-17

    In this paper, we use a coupled climate and carbon cycle model to investigate the global climate and carbon cycle changes out to year 2300 that would occur if CO{sub 2} emissions from all the currently estimated fossil fuel resources were released to the atmosphere. By year 2300, the global climate warms by about 8 K and atmospheric CO{sub 2} reaches 1423 ppmv. The warming is higher than anticipated because the sensitivity to radiative forcing increases as the simulation progresses. In our simulation, the rate of emissions peak at over 30 PgC yr{sup -1} early in the 22nd century. Even at year 2300, nearly 50% of cumulative emissions remain in the atmosphere. In our simulations both soils and living biomass are net carbon sinks throughout the simulation. Despite having relatively low climate sensitivity and strong carbon uptake by the land biosphere, our model projections suggest severe long-term consequences for global climate if all the fossil-fuel carbon is ultimately released to the atmosphere.

  2. The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page; Zhang, Xuesong; Bandaru, Varaprasad; West, Tristram O.; Wise, Marshall A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-19

    Land use change is a complex response to changing environmental and socioeconomic systems. Historical drivers of land use change include changes in the natural resource availability of a region, changes in economic conditions for production of certain products and changing policies. Most recently, introduction of policy incentives for biofuel production have influenced land use change in the US Midwest, leading to concerns that bioenergy production systems may compete with food production and land conservation. Here we explore how land use may be impacted by future climate mitigation measures by nesting a high resolution agricultural model (EPIC – Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) for the US Midwest within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM – Global Change Assessment Model). This approach is designed to provide greater spatial resolution and detailed agricultural practice information by focusing on the climate mitigation potential of agriculture and land use in a specific region, while retaining the global economic context necessary to understand the far ranging effects of climate mitigation targets. We find that until the simulated carbon prices are very high, the US Midwest has a comparative advantage in producing traditional food and feed crops over bioenergy crops. Overall, the model responds to multiple pressures by adopting a mix of future responses. We also find that the GCAM model is capable of simulations at multiple spatial scales and agricultural technology resolution, which provides the capability to examine regional response to global policy and economic conditions in the context of climate mitigation.

  3. Interactive crop management in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1): Seasonal influences on land-atmosphere fluxes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levis, S.

    2014-01-01

    will likely improve earth system model simulations withABSTRACT The Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1)in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1): Seasonal

  4. Managing Change: Introducing a Partnership Model of Care Management into the Scottish Borders

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mottram, Nigel

    Managing Change: Introducing a Partnership Model of Care Management into the Scottish Borders Trust Overview In 1996 the Scottish Borders undertook a comprehensive review of its care management arrangements. A decision was taken to pilot a new model of care management, the partnership model, in two

  5. Food-Web Models Predict Species Abundances in Response to Habitat Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gotelli, Nicholas J.

    sizes of food-web constituents than did simple keystone species models, models that included only-species demographic analyses [9] and assessments of extinction risk. Single-factor models also include keystone species effects, which emphasize responses of populations to changes in the abundance of a single keystone

  6. TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE LAND MANAGEMENT IN THE DRYLANDS: SCIENTIFIC CONNECTIONS IN MONITORING AND ASSESSING DRYLAND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lehmann, Johannes

    ; Accepted 29 November 2010 ABSTRACT The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification and its sister in land management undertaken to address dryland degradation and desertification can simultaneously reduce words: resilience; sustainable land management; desertification; land degradation; climate change

  7. Developing the PAGE2002 Model with Endogenous Technical Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alberth, Stephan; Hope, Chris

    region and type of calculation made. The rates of mature technologies, on the other hand, such as coal and CCGT were found to be around 4% to 10% according to IEA (2000) and FGD and SCR scrubbers9 have also been found to have learning rates of 11... stream_source_info eprg0613.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 70866 Content-Encoding UTF-8 stream_name eprg0613.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Developing the PAGE2002 model with Endogenous...

  8. A semi-Markov model with memory for price changes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D'Amico, Guglielmo

    2011-01-01

    We study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks by a model of returns using a semi-Markov approach. More precisely we assume that the intraday returns are described by a discrete time homogeneous semi-Markov which depends also on a memory index. The index is introduced to take into account periods of high and low volatility in the market. First of all we derive the equations governing the process and then theoretical results have been compared with empirical findings from real data. In particular we analyzed high frequency data from the Italian stock market from first of January 2007 until end of December 2010.

  9. A Model of Global Learning: How Students Change Through International High-Impact Experiences 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Redwine, Tobin Dean

    2014-12-12

    is warranted. The purpose of this study was to develop a model to explain the viewpoints of student changes by students who participate in a study abroad experience. To meet that purpose, three objectives were utilized. First, a qualitative phenomenology...

  10. Climate change uncertainty evaluation, impacts modelling and resilience of farm scale dynamics in Scotland 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rivington, Michael

    2011-06-28

    This Thesis explored a range of approaches to study the uncertainty and impacts associated with climate change at the farm scale in Scotland. The research objective was to use a process of uncertainty evaluation and simulation modelling to provide...

  11. Access Nets: Modeling Access to Physical Robert Frohardt, Bor-Yuh Evan Chang, and Sriram Sankaranarayanan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chang, Bor-Yuh Evan

    Access Nets: Modeling Access to Physical Spaces Robert Frohardt, Bor-Yuh Evan Chang, and Sriram) Robert Frohardt, Bor-Yuh Evan Chang, and Sriram Sankaranarayanan University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA {frohardt,bec,srirams}@cs.colorado.edu Abstract. Electronic, software-managed mechanisms

  12. Detecting changes in seasonal precipitation extremes using regional climate model projections: Implications for managing fluvial flood

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fowler, Hayley

    further demonstrates that existing precautionary allowances for climate change used for flood managementClick Here for Full Article Detecting changes in seasonal precipitation extremes using regional climate model projections: Implications for managing fluvial flood risk H. J. Fowler1 and R. L. Wilby2

  13. Dynamic Modeling of Behavior Change H. T. Banks, Keri L. Rehm, Karyn L. Sutton

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    for investigating dynamic behavior change. While the approach is applicable to behavior change in eating disorders, smoking, substance abuse and other behavioral disorders, here we present our novel dynamical systems modeling approach to understand the processes governing an individual's behavior in the context of problem

  14. Evaluation of Reconstructed Images of Regional Lung Changes Using a Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adler, Andy

    Evaluation of Reconstructed Images of Regional Lung Changes Using a Model Robert P, Patterson1 A and Patterson 2004, Yang and Patterson 2010). In order to answer questions about regional lung changes, two regions were created in the posterior portion of the right lung where the resistivity can be independently

  15. Planning for Climate Change in South Florida: Climate Envelope Modeling for Threatened and Endangered

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mazzotti, Frank

    resolution (e.g., National Climatic Data Center, Worldclim database). In addition to using data obtained fromWEC 282 Planning for Climate Change in South Florida: Climate Envelope Modeling for Threatened and tools that will allow natural resource managers to examine potential effects of climate change

  16. Land Use and Wildfire: A Review of Local Interactions and Teleconnections

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kelly, Maggi

    2015-01-01

    R.A. , Sr. Land use and climate change. Science 2005, 310,change contributes to climate change, which in turns impacts

  17. Agriculture and Climate Change in Global Scenarios: Why Don't the Models Agree

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Gerald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Calvin, Katherine V.; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; Mueller, C.; Reilly, J. M.; Robertson, Richard; Sands, Ronald; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs makes direct use of weather inputs. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes of key variables such as prices, production, and trade. These divergent outcomes arise from differences in model inputs and model specification. The goal of this paper is to review climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By providing common productivity drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes are reduced. All models show higher prices in 2050 because of negative productivity shocks from climate change. The magnitude of the price increases, and the adaptation responses, differ significantly across the various models. Substantial differences exist in the structural parameters affecting demand, area, and yield, and should be a topic for future research.

  18. An exploration of the stages of change model in a group treatment program for male batterers 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wells, Robert Davis

    2005-02-17

    of behavior change (TTM or TMBC; 1982, 1986). Both the TTM and the GCQ-S have enjoyed widespread use in research. Safe at Home Instrument (SAHI) This review of the stages of change will begin first with an overview of the transtheoretical model of change... been used to identify the processes by which individuals are able to effect changes in health related behaviors, and to determine the effects of interventions to predict outcome. In their seminal article Prochaska and DiClemente (1982) described...

  19. Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dommenget, Dietmar

    on the surface energy balance by very simple repre- sentations of solar and thermal radiation, the atmosphericConceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model Dietmar will introduce a very simple, globally resolved energy bal- ance (GREB) model, which is capable of simulating

  20. Tax policy can change the production path: A model of optimal oil extraction in Alaska

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia

    1 Tax policy can change the production path: A model of optimal oil extraction in Alaska Wayne@primal.ucdavis.edu * Corresponding author ABSTRACT We model the economically optimal dynamic oil production decisions for seven and an estimated inverse production function, which incorporates engineering aspects of oil production into our

  1. Sand dune dynamics and climate change: A modeling H. Yizhaq,1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ashkenazy, Yossi "Yosef"

    Sand dune dynamics and climate change: A modeling approach H. Yizhaq,1 Y. Ashkenazy,1 and H. Tsoar2] We provide several examples for the coexistence of active and fixed sand dunes under similar climatic conditions, namely, with respect to wind power and precipitation rate. A model is developed for dune

  2. Modeling and Simulation of Solar PV Arrays under Changing Illumination Conditions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lehman, Brad

    Modeling and Simulation of Solar PV Arrays under Changing Illumination Conditions Dzung D Nguyen shadows (a passing cloud) on the output power of solar PV arrays. Each solar array is composed of a matrix of a shaded solar PV array as well as the PV output power. The model is also able to simulate and compute

  3. Modeling Energy Use and Technological Change for Policy Makers: Campbell Watkins'

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    31 Modeling Energy Use and Technological Change for Policy Makers: Campbell Watkins' Contribution to Campbell, I survey the last 30 years of modeling energy use for assisting policy makers, an area where his buys more efficient fridges, we use less energy. We have substituted capital (in the form

  4. Bob Sutherst Title: Synoptic modelling of biological responses to climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Queensland, University of

    users to assemble population models from a library of functions. In so doing it brings modelling change. Grants: Honorary with collaboration with various partners Key publications: 1. Sutherst, Bob.sutherst@iprimus.com.au (ii) list of publications, research grants and conference presentations/other invited talks (over

  5. Modelling vegetation dynamics at global scale due to climate changes: Comparison of two approaches

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Belotelov, N.V.; Bogatyrev, B.G.; Lobanov, A.I.

    1996-12-31

    Climate changes will influence vegetation dynamics. One of the ways of forecasting these changes is the creation of mathematical models describing vegetation dynamics. Computer experiments can then be conducted under climate change scenarios. Two main approaches are used to create such models. The first approach is based on a bioclimatic dynamic approach. The second approach is based on modelling the main eco-physiological processes. The bioclimatic dynamic approach consists of hypotheses about vegetation types or biomes, and their interrelationships with climate. In the eco-physiological approach, a detailed description of the processes, such as production, mortality, plants migration and their competition is presented. A number of computer experiments has been conducted for several climatic scenario for Russia and the whole world. A qualitative comparison of the results with the results of an earlier bioclimatic model has been done.

  6. Biomass Energy and Competition for Land

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reilly, John

    We describe an approach for incorporating biomass energy production and competition for land into the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, ...

  7. Coupling GIS and LCA for biodiversity assessments of land use: Part 2: Impact assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Geyer, Roland; Lindner, Jan P.; Stoms, David M.; Davis, Frank W.; Wittstock, Bastian

    2010-01-01

    Evenness . Geographic information systems (GIS) .GIS-based inventory modeling . Habitats . Hemeroby . Land0199-9 LAND USE IN LCA Coupling GIS and LCA for biodiversity

  8. Chapter 1 The Changing Countryside Wendy Jepson and Andrew Millington

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    drylands, often under the banner of `desertification.' Generally land change in existing tropical and sub

  9. Flavour Changing Higgs Couplings in a Class of Two Higgs Doublet Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    F. J. Botella; G. C. Branco; M. Nebot; M. N. Rebelo

    2015-08-20

    We analyse various flavour changing processes like $t\\to hu,hc$, $h\\to \\tau e,\\tau\\mu$ as well as hadronic decays $h\\to bs,bd$, in the framework of a class of two Higgs doublet models where there are flavour changing neutral scalar currents at tree level. These models have the remarkable feature of having these flavour-violating couplings entirely determined by the CKM and PMNS matrices as well as $\\tan\\beta$. The flavour structure of these scalar currents results from a symmetry of the Lagrangian and therefore it is natural and stable under the renormalization group. We show that in some of the models the rates of the above flavour changing processes can reach the discovery level at the LHC at 13 TeV even taking into account the stringent bounds on low energy processes, in particular $\\mu\\to e\\gamma$.

  10. Flavour Changing Higgs Couplings in a Class of Two Higgs Doublet Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Botella, F J; Nebot, M; Rebelo, M N

    2015-01-01

    We analyse various flavour changing processes like $t\\to hu,hc$, $h\\to \\tau e,\\tau\\mu$ as well as hadronic decays $h\\to bs,bd$, in the framework of a class of two Higgs doublet models where there are flavour changing neutral scalar currents at tree level. These models have the remarkable feature of having these flavour-violating couplings entirely determined by the CKM and PMNS matrices as well as $\\tan\\beta$. The flavour structure of these scalar currents results from a symmetry of the Lagrangian and therefore it is natural and stable under the renormalization group. We show that in some of the models the rates of the above flavour changing processes can reach the discovery level at the LHC at 13 TeV even taking into account the stringent bounds on low energy processes, in particular $\\mu\\to e\\gamma$.

  11. Precipitation, Recycling, and Land Memory: An Integrated Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dirmeyer, Paul A.

    A synthesis of several approaches to quantifying land–atmosphere interactions is presented. These approaches use data from observations or atmospheric reanalyses applied to atmospheric tracer models and stand-alone land ...

  12. Analysis of permafrost thermal dynamics and response to climate change in the CMIP5 Earth System Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koven, C.D.

    2014-01-01

    coupled climate-carbon earth system models part i: PhysicalChange in the CMIP5 Earth System Models  Koven, C.D. , W.J.output from a set of Earth System Models (ESMs) (Table 1)

  13. Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, A.; Weaver, C. P.; Morefield, Philip; Huang, Jin; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Adams, P. J.; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, J.; Mahoney, Hardee

    2012-11-01

    Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices.

  14. Primitive Land Plants 37 PRIMITIVE LAND PLANTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koptur, Suzanne

    appeared at this time. Both of these groups of plants had life cycles, involving two generations. One of the year these mosses will produce tiny sporophytes. Prior to this generation, the tiny plants producedPrimitive Land Plants 37 PRIMITIVE LAND PLANTS These are the plants that were present soon after

  15. Progress Report 2008: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Drake, John B; Worley, Patrick H; Hoffman, Forrest M; Jones, Phil

    2009-01-01

    This project employs multi-disciplinary teams to accelerate development of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), based at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). A consortium of eight Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories collaborate with NCAR and the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). The laboratories are Argonne (ANL), Brookhaven (BNL) Los Alamos (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore (LLNL), Oak Ridge (ORNL), Pacific Northwest (PNNL) and Sandia (SNL). The work plan focuses on scalablity for petascale computation and extensibility to a more comprehensive earth system model. Our stated goal is to support the DOE mission in climate change research by helping ... To determine the range of possible climate changes over the 21st century and beyond through simulations using a more accurate climate system model that includes the full range of human and natural climate feedbacks with increased realism and spatial resolution.

  16. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Auffhammer, Maximilian; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Schlenker, Wolfram; Sobel, Adam H.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  17. Land-Use History and Contemporary Management Inform an Ecological Reference Model for Longleaf Pine Woodland Understory Plant Communities.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brudvig, Lars A.; Orrock, John L.; Damschen, Ellen I.; et al, et al

    2014-01-23

    Ecological restoration is frequently guided by reference conditions describing a successfully restored ecosystem; however, the causes and magnitude of ecosystem degradation vary, making simple knowledge of reference conditions insufficient for prioritizing and guiding restoration. Ecological reference models provide further guidance by quantifying reference conditions, as well as conditions at degraded states that deviate from reference conditions. Many reference models remain qualitative, however, limiting their utility. We quantified and evaluated a reference model for southeastern U.S. longleaf pine woodland understory plant communities. We used regression trees to classify 232 longleaf pine woodland sites at three locations along the Atlantic coastal plain based on relationships between understory plant community composition, soils lol(which broadly structure these communities), and factors associated with understory degradation, including fire frequency, agricultural history, and tree basal area. To understand the spatial generality of this model, we classified all sites together. and for each of three study locations separately. Both the regional and location-specific models produced quantifiable degradation gradients–i.e., progressive deviation from conditions at 38 reference sites, based on understory species composition, diversity and total cover, litter depth, and other attributes. Regionally, fire suppression was the most important degrading factor, followed by agricultural history, but at individual locations, agricultural history or tree basal area was most important. At one location, the influence of a degrading factor depended on soil attributes. We suggest that our regional model can help prioritize longleaf pine woodland restoration across our study region; however, due to substantial landscape-to-landscape variation, local management decisions should take into account additional factors (e.g., soil attributes). Our study demonstrates the utility of quantifying degraded states and provides a series of hypotheses for future experimental restoration work. More broadly, our work provides a framework for developing and evaluating reference models that incorporate multiple, interactive anthropogenic drivers of ecosystem degradation.

  18. Climate induced changes in benthic macrofauna--A non-linear model approach Karin Junker a,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dippner, Joachim W.

    Climate induced changes in benthic macrofauna--A non-linear model approach Karin Junker a, , Dusan macrofauna communities Climate indices Neural network Climate variability Time series forecasting Regime-nearest neighbours" (OPKNN) are applied to relate various climate indices to time series of biomass, abun- dance

  19. DAMAGE DETECTION BASED ON STRUCTURAL RESPONSE TO TEMPERATURE CHANGES AND MODEL UPDATING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    DAMAGE DETECTION BASED ON STRUCTURAL RESPONSE TO TEMPERATURE CHANGES AND MODEL UPDATING Marian The paper proposes use of measured structural response to temperature loads for purposes of damage identification. As opposed to the most common approaches, which rely on suppressing temperature effects in damage

  20. A Model for Compound Type Changes Encountered in Schema Evolution \\Lambda

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

    encountered in relational database systems, making schema evolution a more difficult problem. With persistentA Model for Compound Type Changes Encountered in Schema Evolution \\Lambda Barbara Staudt Lerner Computer Science Department University of Massachusetts, Amherst June 12, 1996 Abstract Schema evolution

  1. Modeling Alveolar Volume Changes During Periodic Breathing in Heterogeneously Ventilated Lungs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jeavons, Peter

    Modeling Alveolar Volume Changes During Periodic Breathing in Heterogeneously Ventilated Lungs SARA-uniform breathing pattern for a lung with an inhomogeneous gas distribution, such as that observed in some subjects of irregular breathing caused by small, poorly ventilated regions of the lung. Presented here is an extension

  2. Modeling Ideology and Predicting Policy Change with Social Media: Case of Same-Sex Marriage

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Modeling Ideology and Predicting Policy Change with Social Media: Case of Same-Sex Marriage Amy X of important policy decisions. Focus- ing on the issue of same-sex marriage legalization, we exam- ine almost 2 million public Twitter posts related to same-sex marriage in the U.S. states over the course of 4 years

  3. USE OF GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL OUTPUT IN THE CREATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robock, Alan

    , Sub-Saharan Africa and Venezuela, for use in biological effects models. By combining the general, and possible solar variations, and all agree that surface air temperatures will rise, pre- cipitation patterns will change, and sea level will rise. Even though such projections of the future are relatively crude

  4. Comparison of problem model change mechanisms issued from CSP and TRIZ

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    1 Comparison of problem model change mechanisms issued from CSP and TRIZ RRoollaanndd DDee GGuuiioo satisfaction problem (CSP), on the other hand. Keywords: over-constrained problems, dialectical methods issued from CSP and TRIZ 2 · a set of evaluation parameters, which represent the objective of the problem

  5. Selected translated abstracts of Russian-language climate-change publications. 4: General circulation models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burtis, M.D.; Razuvaev, V.N.; Sivachok, S.G.

    1996-10-01

    This report presents English-translated abstracts of important Russian-language literature concerning general circulation models as they relate to climate change. Into addition to the bibliographic citations and abstracts translated into English, this report presents the original citations and abstracts in Russian. Author and title indexes are included to assist the reader in locating abstracts of particular interest.

  6. Change of variables as a method to study general ?-models: Bulk universality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shcherbina, M.

    2014-04-15

    We consider ? matrix models with real analytic potentials. Assuming that the corresponding equilibrium density ? has a one-interval support (without loss of generality ? = [?2, 2]), we study the transformation of the correlation functions after the change of variables ?{sub i} ? ?(?{sub i}) with ?(?) chosen from the equation ?{sup ?}(?)?(?(?)) = ?{sub sc}(?), where ?{sub sc}(?) is the standard semicircle density. This gives us the “deformed” ?-model which has an additional “interaction” term. Standard transformation with the Gaussian integral allows us to show that the “deformed” ?-model may be reduced to the standard Gaussian ?-model with a small perturbation n{sup ?1}h(?). This reduces most of the problems of local and global regimes for ?-models to the corresponding problems for the Gaussian ?-model with a small perturbation. In the present paper, we prove the bulk universality of local eigenvalue statistics for both one-cut and multi-cut cases.

  7. Baseline for Climate Change: Modeling Watershed Aquatic Biodiversity Relative to Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maurakis, Eugene G

    2010-10-01

    Objectives of the two-year study were to (1) establish baselines for fish and macroinvertebrate community structures in two mid-Atlantic lower Piedmont watersheds (Quantico Creek, a pristine forest watershed; and Cameron Run, an urban watershed, Virginia) that can be used to monitor changes relative to the impacts related to climate change in the future; (2) create mathematical expressions to model fish species richness and diversity, and macroinvertebrate taxa and macroinvertebrate functional feeding group taxa richness and diversity that can serve as a baseline for future comparisons in these and other watersheds in the mid-Atlantic region; and (3) heighten people’s awareness, knowledge and understanding of climate change and impacts on watersheds in a laboratory experience and interactive exhibits, through internship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, a week-long teacher workshop, and a website about climate change and watersheds. Mathematical expressions modeled fish and macroinvertebrate richness and diversity accurately well during most of the six thermal seasons where sample sizes were robust. Additionally, hydrologic models provide the basis for estimating flows under varying meteorological conditions and landscape changes. Continuations of long-term studies are requisite for accurately teasing local human influences (e.g. urbanization and watershed alteration) from global anthropogenic impacts (e.g. climate change) on watersheds. Effective and skillful translations (e.g. annual potential exposure of 750,000 people to our inquiry-based laboratory activities and interactive exhibits in Virginia) of results of scientific investigations are valuable ways of communicating information to the general public to enhance their understanding of climate change and its effects in watersheds.

  8. Effects of vegetation and soil moisture on the simulated land surface processes from the coupled WRF/Noah model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Small, Eric

    WRF/Noah model Seungbum Hong,1 Venkat Lakshmi,1 Eric E. Small,2 Fei Chen,3 Mukul Tewari,3 and Kevin W. Lakshmi, E. E. Small, F. Chen, M. Tewari, and K. W. Manning (2009), Effects of vegetation and soil

  9. A reduced-order modeling approach to represent subgrid-scale hydrological dynamics for land-surface simulations: application in a polygonal tundra landscape

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pau, G. S. H.; Bisht, G.; Riley, W. J.

    2014-09-17

    Existing land surface models (LSMs) describe physical and biological processes that occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. For example, biogeochemical and hydrological processes responsible for carbon (CO2, CH4) exchanges with the atmosphere range from the molecular scale (pore-scale O2 consumption) to tens of kilometers (vegetation distribution, river networks). Additionally, many processes within LSMs are nonlinearly coupled (e.g., methane production and soil moisture dynamics), and therefore simple linear upscaling techniques can result in large prediction error. In this paper we applied a reduced-order modeling (ROM) technique known as "proper orthogonal decomposition mapping method" that reconstructs temporally resolvedmore »fine-resolution solutions based on coarse-resolution solutions. We developed four different methods and applied them to four study sites in a polygonal tundra landscape near Barrow, Alaska. Coupled surface–subsurface isothermal simulations were performed for summer months (June–September) at fine (0.25 m) and coarse (8 m) horizontal resolutions. We used simulation results from three summer seasons (1998–2000) to build ROMs of the 4-D soil moisture field for the study sites individually (single-site) and aggregated (multi-site). The results indicate that the ROM produced a significant computational speedup (> 103) with very small relative approximation error (« less

  10. A reduced order modeling approach to represent subgrid-scale hydrological dynamics for regional- and climate-scale land-surface simulations: application in a polygonal tundra landscape

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pau, G. S. H.; Bisht, G.; Riley, W. J.

    2014-04-04

    Existing land surface models (LSMs) describe physical and biological processes that occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. For example, biogeochemical and hydrological processes responsible for carbon (CO2, CH4) exchanges with the atmosphere range from molecular scale (pore-scale O2 consumption) to tens of kilometer scale (vegetation distribution, river networks). Additionally, many processes within LSMs are nonlinearly coupled (e.g., methane production and soil moisture dynamics), and therefore simple linear upscaling techniques can result in large prediction error. In this paper we applied a particular reduced-order modeling (ROM) technique known as "Proper Orthogonal Decomposition mapping method" that reconstructs temporally-resolvedmore »fine-resolution solutions based on coarse-resolution solutions. We applied this technique to four study sites in a polygonal tundra landscape near Barrow, Alaska. Coupled surface-subsurface isothermal simulations were performed for summer months (June–September) at fine (0.25 m) and coarse (8 m) horizontal resolutions. We used simulation results from three summer seasons (1998–2000) to build ROMs of the 4-D soil moisture field for the four study sites individually (single-site) and aggregated (multi-site). The results indicate that the ROM produced a significant computational speedup (> 103) with very small relative approximation error (« less

  11. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  12. Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Codron, Francis

    Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 J relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model climate and Earth System Models, both developed in France and contributing to the 5th coupled model

  13. Journal of Environmental Management 84 (2007) 157172 Development and application of a GIS-based sediment budget model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Lee

    2007-01-01

    -based sediment budget model Carlos E. Ramos-Scharro´ na,Ă, Lee H. MacDonaldb a Department of Geosciences Accelerated erosion and increased sediment yields resulting from changes in land use are a critical the changes in sediment production and delivery due to unpaved roads and other types of land disturbance

  14. An Urban Parameterization for a Global Climate Model. Part I: Formulation and Evaluation for Two Cities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oleson, Keith W.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Feddema, Johannes J.; Vertenstein, M.; Grimmond, C.S.B.

    2008-01-01

    stream_size 70935 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Feddema_Urban_Parameterization_Climate Model_PtI.pdf.txt stream_source_info Feddema_Urban_Parameterization_Climate Model_PtI.pdf.txt Content-Encoding UTF-8 Content-Type..., all of these studies have focused on land use/land cover re- lated to changes in vegetation types. Urbanization, or the expansion of built-up areas, is an important yet less studied aspect of anthropogenic land use/land cover change in climate science...

  15. Ownership Patterns on Hardwood Lands1 Sam C. Doak2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . Demand for land for residential and commercial develop- ment has been a major force of change across (Doak and Stewart 1986). The process of changing ownerships, decreasing parcel sizes, and residential

  16. Runoff characteristics and the influence of land cover in drylands of western Texas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Huang, Yun

    2009-06-02

    In dryland regions, where water is a limited resource, land use/land cover has undergone and continues to undergo significant change mainly due to human activities. The nature of runoff from dryland regions and the influence of land use/land cover...

  17. Farming: A Climate Change Culprit

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Farming: A Climate Change Culprit Farming: A Climate Change Culprit Simulations run at NERSC show impact of land-use change on African monsoon precipitation June 7, 2014 | Tags:...

  18. Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kicklighter, David

    Climate change will alter ecosystem metabolism and may lead to a redistribution of vegetation and changes in fire regimes in Northern Eurasia over the 21st century. Land management decisions will interact with these ...

  19. The Role of Asia in Mitigating Climate Change: Results from the Asia Modeling Exercise

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Krey, Volker; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Jiang, Kejun; Kainuma, M.; Kriegler, Elmar; Luderer, Gunnar; Shukla, Priyadarshi R.

    2012-12-01

    In 2010, Asia accounted for 60% of global population, 39% of Gross World Product, 44% of global energy consumption and nearly half of the world’s energy system CO2 emissions. Thus, Asia is an important region to consider in any discussion of climate change or climate change mitigation. This paper explores the role of Asia in mitigating climate change, by comparing the results of 23 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. We focus our analysis on seven key areas: base year data, future energy use and emissions absent climate policy, the effect of urban and rural development on future energy use and emissions, the role of technology in emissions mitigation, regional emissions mitigation, and national climate policies

  20. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 0, NO. 0, PAGES 00, M 0, 2001 Positive feedback between future climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dufresne, Jean-Louis

    to drive both terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle models. These two models allow one to translate an climate change and the carbon cycle Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Philippe Ciais, IPSL/LSCE, CE and the carbon cycle. Climate change reduces land and ocean uptake of CO2 , respectively by 54% and 35% at 4 × CO

  1. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 0, NO. 0, PAGES 0-0, M 0, 2001 Positive feedback between future climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dufresne, Jean-Louis

    to drive both terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle models. These two models allow one to translate an climate change and the carbon cycle Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Philippe Ciais, IPSL/LSCE, CE system and the carbon cycle. Climate change reduces land and ocean uptake of CO2, respectively by 54

  2. Modeling the potential contribution of land cover changes to the late twentieth century Sahel drought using a regional climate model: impact of lateral boundary conditions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, G; Yu, M; Xue, Y

    2015-01-01

    cell (referred to as desertification in this section) inand grass co-exist, desertification is applied only whereof deforestation and desertification combined do not exceed

  3. Great Lakes Regional Land Cover Change Report

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    management actions. To learn more about the C-CAP data products used in this report and to access the data, and tourism industries. However, some significant stressors have degraded the ecosystem integrity

  4. Southeast Regional Land Cover Change Report

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . To learn more about the C-CAP data products used in this report and to access the data sets, please visit of recreation and tourism, residential development, service industries, and commercial space has transformed

  5. West Coast Regional Land Cover Change Report

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    management actions. To learn more about the C-CAP data products used in this report and to access the data-dependent activities such as tourism and recreation, commercial and recreational fishing, offshore oil and gas

  6. Biofuels and indirect land use change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    the Renewable Energy Directive. An alternative approach is developed that would encourage producers and growers. With liquid fuels likely to remain the primary energy source for road transport for at least the next few emissions from transport fuels. Research

  7. Modeling of Oceanic Gas Hydrate Instability and Methane Release in Response to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reagan, Matthew; Reagan, Matthew T.; Moridis, George J.

    2008-04-15

    Paleooceanographic evidence has been used to postulate that methane from oceanic hydrates may have had a significant role in regulating global climate, implicating global oceanic deposits of methane gas hydrate as the main culprit in instances of rapid climate change that have occurred in the past. However, the behavior of contemporary oceanic methane hydrate deposits subjected to rapid temperature changes, like those predicted under future climate change scenarios, is poorly understood. To determine the fate of the carbon stored in these hydrates, we performed simulations of oceanic gas hydrate accumulations subjected to temperature changes at the seafloor and assessed the potential for methane release into the ocean. Our modeling analysis considered the properties of benthic sediments, the saturation and distribution of the hydrates, the ocean depth, the initial seafloor temperature, and for the first time, estimated the effect of benthic biogeochemical activity. The results show that shallow deposits--such as those found in arctic regions or in the Gulf of Mexico--can undergo rapid dissociation and produce significant methane fluxes of 2 to 13 mol/yr/m{sup 2} over a period of decades, and release up to 1,100 mol of methane per m{sup 2} of seafloor in a century. These fluxes may exceed the ability of the seafloor environment (via anaerobic oxidation of methane) to consume the released methane or sequester the carbon. These results will provide a source term to regional or global climate models in order to assess the coupling of gas hydrate deposits to changes in the global climate.

  8. A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Reconstructing Sea Levels: From Raw Data to Rates of Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cahill, Niamh; Horton, Benjamin P; Parnell, Andrew C

    2015-01-01

    We present a holistic Bayesian hierarchical model for reconstructing the continuous and dynamic evolution of relative sea-level (RSL) change with fully quantified uncertainty. The reconstruction is produced from biological (foraminifera) and geochemical ({\\delta}13C) sea-level indicators preserved in dated cores of salt-marsh sediment. Our model is comprised of three modules: (1) A Bayesian transfer function for the calibration of foraminifera into tidal elevation, which is flexible enough to formally accommodate additional proxies (in this case bulk-sediment {\\delta}13C values); (2) A chronology developed from an existing Bchron age-depth model, and (3) An existing errors-in-variables integrated Gaussian process (EIV-IGP) model for estimating rates of sea-level change. We illustrate our approach using a case study of Common Era sea-level variability from New Jersey, U.S.A. We develop a new Bayesian transfer function (B-TF), with and without the {\\delta}13C proxy and compare our results to those from a widely...

  9. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic Using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassano, John

    2013-06-30

    The primary research task completed for this project was the development of the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). This involved coupling existing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land models using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) coupler (CPL7). RACM is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model, the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean model, the CICE sea ice model, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. A secondary research task for this project was testing and evaluation of WRF for climate-scale simulations on the large pan-Arctic model domain used in RACM. This involved identification of a preferred set of model physical parameterizations for use in our coupled RACM simulations and documenting any atmospheric biases present in RACM.

  10. A Dynamic Solar Core Model: On the Activity-Related Changes of the Neutrino Fluxes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Attila Grandpierre

    1998-10-08

    The energy sources of the Sun may actually involve a thermonuclear runaway energy source present in stellar energy producing regions. I consider the conjectures of the derived model for the solar neutrino fluxes in case of a solar core allowed to vary in relation to the surface activity cycle. The observed neutrino flux data suggest a solar core possibly varying in time. In the dynamic solar model the quiet and runaway energy sources together may produce quasi-constant flux in the SuperKamiokande because it is sensitive to neutral currents, axions and anti-neutrinos, too. I calculate the contributions of the runaway source to the individual neutrino detectors. The results of the dynamic solar core model suggest that since the HOMESTAKE detects mostly the high energy electron neutrinos, therefore the HOMESTAKE data may aniticorrelate with the activity cycle. Activity correlated changes are expected to be present only marginally in the GALLEX and GNO data. The gallium detectors are sensitive mostly to the pp neutrinos, and the changes of the pp neutrinos arising from the SSM-like core is mostly compensated by the high-energy electron neutrinos produced by the hot bubbles of the dynamic energy source. The results suggest that the GALLEX data may show an anti-correlation, while the SuperKamiokande data may show a correlation with the activity cycle. Predictions of the dynamic solar model are presented for the SNO and Borexino experiments which can distinguish between the effects of the MSW mechanism and the consequences of the dynamic solar model. The results of the dynamic solar model are consistent with the present heioseismic measurements and can be checked with future heioseismic measurements as well. Keywords: solar neutrino problems - solar activity - thermonuclear runaways

  11. Flavor changing neutral currents in the 3-3-1 model with right-handed neutrinos

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Benavides, Richard H.; Giraldo, Yithsbey; Ponce, William A.

    2009-12-01

    Flavor changing neutral currents coming from a new nonuniversal neutral gauge boson and from the nonunitary quark mixing matrix for the SU(3){sub c} x SU(3){sub L} x U(1){sub X} model with right-handed neutrinos are studied. By imposing as experimental constraints the measured values of the 3x3 quark mixing matrix, the neutral meson mixing, and bounds and measured values for direct flavor changing neutral current processes, the largest mixing of the known quarks with the exotic ones can be established, with new sources of flavor changing neutral currents being identified. Our main result is that for a |V{sub tb}| value smaller than 1, large rates of rare top decays such as t{yields}c{gamma}, t{yields}cZ, and t{yields}cg (where g stands for the gluon field) are obtained; but if |V{sub tb}|{approx}1 the model can survive present experimental limits only if the mass of the new neutral gauge bosons becomes larger that 10 TeV.

  12. Applied Geography 26 (2006) 129152 Landscape change in the Calakmul Biosphere

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roy Chowdhury, Rinku

    2006-01-01

    in protected areas can have socially detrimental impacts, including livestock/wildlife conflicts, displacementApplied Geography 26 (2006) 129­152 Landscape change in the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve, Mexico This article uses remote sensing and spatial modeling to quantify and analyze land change in Mexico's largest

  13. Loki, Io: New groundbased observations and a model describing the change from periodic overturn

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Julie A. Rathbun; John R. Spencer

    2006-05-09

    Loki Patera is the most powerful volcano in the solar system. We have obtained measurements of Loki's 3.5 micron brightness from NASA's Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) and have witnessed a change from the periodic behavior previously noted. While Loki brightened by a factor of several every 540 days prior to 2001, from 2001 through 2004 Loki remained at a constant, medium brightness. We have constructed a quantitative model of Loki as a basaltic lava lake whose solidified crust overturns when it becomes buoyantly unstable. By altering the speed at which the overturn propagates across the patera, we can match our groundbased brightness data. In addition, we can match other data taken at other times and wavelengths. By slowing the propagation speed dramatically, we can match the observations from 2001-2004. This slowing may be due to a small change in volatile content in the magma.

  14. SPECIAL REPORT 298: EFFECTS OF LAND DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS ON MOTORIZED TRAVEL, ENERGY, AND CO2 EMISSIONS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kockelman, Kara M.

    SPECIAL REPORT 298: EFFECTS OF LAND DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS ON MOTORIZED TRAVEL, ENERGY, AND CO2 land use changes, biofuels (especially advanced biofuels such as cellulosic ethanol) are a good

  15. Detailed Modeling of Industrial Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in an Integrated Assessment Model of Long-term Global Change 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sinha, P.; Wise, M.; Smith, S.

    2006-01-01

    Conference 2006 Session 11 – Industrial Energy Modeling: What is the State of the Art? Detailed Modeling of Industrial Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in an Integrated Assessment Model of Long-term Global Change ParamitaSinha 1 MarshallWise 2* ,and...StevenSmith 2 1 UniversityofMaryland,CollegePark. 2 PacificNorthwestNationalLaboratory,JointGlobalChangeResearch Institute,CollegePark,MD. 1. Introduction Thispaperpresentsanewapproachtounderstandingthepotentiallong-termevolutionofenergy demandsinthe...

  16. Agriculture, Land Use, Energy and Carbon Emission Impacts of Global Biofuel Mandates to Mid-Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wise, Marshall A.; Dooley, James J.; Luckow, Patrick; Calvin, Katherine V.; Kyle, G. Page

    2014-02-01

    Three potential future scenarios of expanded global biofuel production are presented here utilizing the GCAM integrated assessment model. These scenarios span a range that encompasses on the low end a continuation of existing biofuel production policies to two scenarios that would require an expansion of current targets as well as an extension of biofuels targets to other regions of the world. Conventional oil use is reduced by 4-8% in the expanded biofuel scenarios, which results in a decrease of in CO2 emissions on the order of 1-2 GtCO2/year by mid-century from the global transportation sector. The regional distribution of crop production is relatively unaffected, but the biofuels targets do result in a marked increase in the production of conventional crops used for energy. Producer prices of sugar and corn reach levels about 12% and 7% above year 2005 levels, while the increased competition for land causes the price of food crops such as wheat, although not used for bioenergy in this study, to increase by 1 to 2%. The amount of land devoted to growing all food crops and dedicated bioenergy crops is increased by about 10% by 2050 in the High biofuel case, with concurrent decreases in other uses of land such as forest and pasture. In both of the expanded biofuels cases studied, there is an increase in net cumulative carbon emissions for the first couple of decades due to these induced land use changes. However, the difference in net cumulative emissions from the biofuels expansion decline by about 2035 as the reductions in energy system emissions exceed further increases in emissions from land use change. Even in the absence of a policy that would limit emissions from land use change, the differences in net cumulative emissions from the biofuels scenarios reach zero by 2050, and are decreasing further over time in both cases.

  17. New Technologies to Reclaim Arid Lands User's Manual

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    W. K. Ostler

    2002-10-01

    Approximately 70 percent of all U.S. military training lands are located in arid and semi-arid areas. Training activities in such areas frequently adversely affect vegetation, damaging plants and reducing the resilience of vegetation to recover once disturbed. Fugitive dust resulting from a loss of vegetation creates additional problems for human health, increasing accidents due to decreased visibility, and increasing maintenance costs for roads, vehicles, and equipment. Under conventional technologies to mitigate these impacts, it is estimated that up to 35 percent of revegetation projects in arid areas will fail due to unpredictable natural environmental conditions, such as drought, and reclamation techniques that were inadequate to restore vegetative cover in a timely and cost-effective manner. New reclamation and restoration techniques are needed in desert ranges to help mitigate the adverse effects of military training and other activities to arid-land environments. In 1999, a cooperative effort between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the US. Department of Defense (DoD), and selected university scientists was undertaken to focus on mitigating military impacts in arid lands. As arid lands are impacted due to DoD and DOE activities, biological and soil resources are gradually lost and the habitat is altered. A conceptual model of that change in habitat quality is described for varying levels of disturbance in the Mojave Desert. As the habitat quality degrades and more biological and physical resources are lost from training areas, greater costs are required to return the land to sustainable levels. The purpose of this manual is to assist land managers in recognizing thresholds associated with habitat degradation and provide reclamation planning and techniques that can reduce the costs of mitigation for these impacted lands to ensure sustainable use of these lands. The importance of reclamation planning is described in this manual with suggestions about establishing project objectives, scheduling, budgeting, and selecting cost-effective techniques. Reclamation techniques include sections describing: (1) erosion control (physical, chemical, and biological), (2) site preparation, (3) soil amendments, (4) seeding, (5) planting, (6) grazing and weed control, (7) mulching, (8) irrigation, and (9) site protection. Each section states the objectives of the technique, the principles, an in-depth look at the techniques, and any special considerations as it relates to DoD or DOE lands. The need for monitoring and remediation is described to guide users in monitoring reclamation efforts to evaluate their cost-effectiveness. Costs are provided for the proposed techniques for the major deserts of the southwestern U.S. showing the average and range of costs. A set of decision tools are provided in the form of a flow diagram and table to guide users in selecting effective reclamation techniques to achieve mitigation objectives. Recommendations are provided to help summarize key reclamation principles and to assist users in developing a successful program that contributes to sustainable uses of DoD and DOE lands. The users manual is helpful to managers in communicating to installation management the needs and consequences of training decisions and the costs required to achieve successful levels of sustainable use. This users manual focuses on the development of new reclamation techniques that have been implemented at the National Training Center at Fort Irwin, California, and are applicable to most arid land reclamation efforts.

  18. Centennial-scale interactions between the carbon cycle and anthropogenic climate change using a dynamic Earth system model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Winguth, Arne

    a dynamic Earth system model A. Winguth Center for Climatic Research, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic; accepted 26 October 2005; published 15 December 2005. [1] A complex Earth system model including atmosphere and anthropogenic climate change using a dynamic Earth system model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L23714, doi:10

  19. Modeling the large-scale demographic changes of the Old World

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bennett, James

    2015-01-01

    2015) poor management of crops, regional climate changes, orChanges. Cliodynamics 6:1 (2015) different management

  20. MODIS Collection 5 global land cover: Algorithm refinements and characterization of new datasets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wisconsin at Madison, University of

    information is required to parameterize land surface processes in regional-to-global scale Earth system models

  1. On the connection between continental-scale land surface processes and the tropical climate in a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ma, Hsi-Yen; Mechoso, C. R.; Xue, Yongkang; Xiao, Heng; Neelin, David; Ji, Xuan

    2013-11-15

    The impact of global tropical climate to perturbations in land surface processes (LSP) are evaluated using perturbations given by different LSP representations of continental-scale in a global climate model that includes atmosphere-ocean interactions. One representation is a simple land scheme, which specifies climatological albedos and soil moisture availability. The other representation is the more comprehensive Simplified Simple Biosphere Model, which allows for interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical processes. The results demonstrate that LSP processes such as interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical processes have strong impacts on the seasonal mean states and seasonal cycles of global precipitation, clouds, and surface air temperature. The impact is especially significant over the tropical Pacific. To explore the mechanisms for such impact, different LSP representations are confined to selected continental-scale regions where strong interactions of climate-vegetation biophysical processes are present. We find that the largest impact is mainly from LSP perturbations over the tropical African continent. The impact is through anomalous convective heating in tropical Africa due to changes in the surface heat fluxes, which in turn affect basinwide teleconnections in the Pacific through equatorial wave dynamics. The modifications in the equatorial Pacific climate are further enhanced by strong air-sea coupling between surface wind stress and upwelling, as well as effect of ocean memory. Our results further suggest that correct representations of land surface processes, land use change and the associated changes in the deep convection over tropical Africa are crucial to reducing the uncertainty when performing future climate projections under different climate change scenarios.

  2. Addressing trend-related changes within cumulative effects studies in water resources planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Canter, L.W., E-mail: envimptr@aol.com [University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma and President, Canter Associates, Inc., Horseshoe Bay, TX (United States); Chawla, M.K. [ERDC-CERL, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Champaign, IL (United States)] [ERDC-CERL, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Champaign, IL (United States); Swor, C.T. [Canter Associates, Inc., Frankewing, TN (United States)] [Canter Associates, Inc., Frankewing, TN (United States)

    2014-01-15

    Summarized herein are 28 case studies wherein trend-related causative physical, social, or institutional changes were connected to consequential changes in runoff, water quality, and riparian and aquatic ecological features. The reviewed cases were systematically evaluated relative to their identified environmental effects; usage of analytical frameworks, and appropriate models, methods, and technologies; and the attention given to mitigation and/or management of the resultant causative and consequential changes. These changes also represent important considerations in project design and operation, and in cumulative effects studies associated therewith. The cases were grouped into five categories: institutional changes associated with legislation and policies (seven cases); physical changes from land use changes in urbanizing watersheds (eight cases); physical changes from land use changes and development projects in watersheds (four cases); physical, institutional, and social changes from land use and related policy changes in river basins (three cases); and multiple changes within a comprehensive study of land use and policy changes in the Willamette River Basin in Oregon (six cases). A tabulation of 110 models, methods and technologies used in the studies is also presented. General observations from this review were that the features were unique for each case; the consequential changes were logically based on the causative changes; the analytical frameworks provided relevant structures for the studies, and the identified methods and technologies were pertinent for addressing both the causative and consequential changes. One key lesson was that the cases provide useful, “real-world” illustrations of the importance of addressing trend-related changes in cumulative effects studies within water resources planning. Accordingly, they could be used as an “initial tool kit” for addressing trend-related changes.

  3. Access Nets: Modeling Access to Physical Spaces Robert Frohardt, Bor-Yuh Evan Chang, and Sriram Sankaranarayanan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chang, Bor-Yuh Evan

    Access Nets: Modeling Access to Physical Spaces Robert Frohardt, Bor-Yuh Evan Chang, and Sriram Sankaranarayanan University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA {frohardt,bec,srirams}@cs.colorado.edu Abstract Frohardt, Bor-Yuh Evan Chang, and Sriram Sankaranarayanan Lobby Archive Gallery visitor guard curator

  4. Global modeling of cancer gene expression signa-Cancer leads to permanent changes in cell's physiological state and various

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kaski, Samuel

    Global modeling of cancer gene expression signa- tures Cancer leads to permanent changes in cell cancer types. Less is known about the underlying biological processes, or relationships between different cancer types with respect to these changes. While each specific cancer type has a set of unique

  5. Using NASA Remote Sensing Data to Reduce Uncertainty of Land-Use Transitions in Global Carbon-Climate Models: Data Management Plan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Using NASA Remote Sensing Data to Reduce Uncertainty of Land-Use Transitions in Global Carbon University of Maryland The following Data Management Plan was part of the NASA ROSES 2012 Proposal Using NASA), as described below. We will follow all guidelines in the NASA Earth Science Data and Information Policy, along

  6. EVOLUTIONARY CHANGE the evolution of change management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emmerich, Michael

    page 1 EVOLUTIONARY CHANGE the evolution of change management by Jeroen van der Zon University, evolutionary change is studied by describing the evolution of Change Manage- ment (CM). CM is one . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 3 Modelling Change Management

  7. Title: Canada Land Inventory: Land Capability for Agriculture Data Creator /

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Quebec, Saskatchewan Keywords (Subject): Land Use, Soils, Agriculture

  8. Title: Canada Land Inventory: Land Capability for Forestry Data Creator /

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Quebec, Saskatchewan #12;Keywords (Subject): Land Use, Soils, Vegetation

  9. Improving parameter estimation and water table depth simulation in a land surface model using GRACE water storage and estimated base flow data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lo, Min-Hui; Famiglietti, James S; Yeh, P. J.-F.; Syed, T. H

    2010-01-01

    variations of river water storage from a multiple satellite2007), Estimating ground water storage changes in theAnalysis of terrestrial water storage changes from GRACE and

  10. Inter-regional comparison of land-use effects on stream metabolism

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bernot, Melody [Ball State University; Sobota, Daniel [Oregon State University; Hall, Robert [University of Wyoming, Laramie; Mulholland, Patrick J [ORNL; Dodds, Walter [Kansas State University; Webster, Jackson [Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech); Tank, Jennifer [University of Notre Dame, IN; Ashkenas, Linda [Oregon State University, Corvallis; Cooper, Lee W [ORNL; Dahm, Cliff [University of New Mexico, Albuquerque; Gregory, Stanley [Oregon State University, Corvallis; Grimm, Nancy [Arizona State University; Hamilton, Stephen [Michigan State University, East Lansing; Johnson, Sherri [Oregon State University; McDowell, William [University of Hew Hampshire; Meyer, Judy [University of Georgia, Athens, GA; Peterson, Bruce [Marine Biological Laboratory; Poole, Geoffrey C. [Montana State University; Valett, H. Maurice [Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech); Arango, Clay [University of Notre Dame, IN; Beaulieu, Jake [University of Notre Dame, IN; Burgin, Amy [Michigan State University, East Lansing; Crenshaw, Chelsea [University of New Mexico, Albuquerque; Helton, Ashley [University of Georgia, Athens, GA; Johnson, Laura [University of Notre Dame, IN; Merriam, Jeffrey [University of New Hampshire; Niederlehner, Bobbie [Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech); O'Brien, Jon [Michigan State University, East Lansing; Potter, Jody [University of New Hampshire; Sheibley, Rich [Arizona State University; Thomas, Suzanne [Marine Biological Laboratory; Wilson, Kym [Kansas State University

    2010-01-01

    Rates of whole-system metabolism (production and respiration) are fundamental indicators of ecosystem structure and function. Although first-order, proximal controls are well understood, assessments of the interactions between proximal controls and distal controls, such as land use and geographic region, are lacking. Thus, the influence of land use on stream metabolism across geographic regions is unknown. Further, there is limited understanding of how land use may alter variability in ecosystem metabolism across regions. 2. Stream metabolism was measured in nine streams in each of eight regions (n = 72) across the United States and Puerto Rico. In each region, three streams were selected from a range of three land uses: agriculturally influenced, urban-influenced, and reference streams. Stream metabolism was estimated from diel changes in dissolved oxygen concentrations in each stream reach with correction for reaeration and groundwater input. 3. Gross primary production (GPP) was highest in regions with little riparian vegetation (sagebrush steppe in Wyoming, desert shrub in Arizona/New Mexico) and lowest in forested regions (North Carolina, Oregon). In contrast, ecosystem respiration (ER) varied both within and among regions. Reference streams had significantly lower rates of GPP than urban or agriculturally influenced streams. 4. GPP was positively correlated with photosynthetically active radiation and autotrophic biomass. Multiple regression models compared using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) indicated GPP increased with water column ammonium and the fraction of the catchment in urban and reference land-use categories. Multiple regression models also identified velocity, temperature, nitrate, ammonium, dissolved organic carbon, GPP, coarse benthic organic matter, fine benthic organic matter and the fraction of all land-use categories in the catchment as regulators of ER. 5. Structural equation modelling indicated significant distal as well as proximal control pathways including a direct effect of land-use on GPP as well as SRP, DIN, and PAR effects on GPP; GPP effects on autotrophic biomass, organic matter, and ER; and organic matter effects on ER. 6. Overall, consideration of the data separated by land-use categories showed reduced inter-regional variability in rates of metabolism, indicating that the influence of agricultural and urban land use can obscure regional differences in stream metabolism.

  11. The integrated Earth System Model Version 1: formulation and...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    land use and land cover change, and other resource-related drivers of anthropogenic climate change. ESMs are the primary scientific tools for examining the physical,...

  12. Hartle's model within the general theory of perturbative matchings: the change in mass

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Borja Reina; Raül Vera

    2014-12-22

    Hartle's model provides the most widely used analytic framework to describe isolated compact bodies rotating slowly in equilibrium up to second order in perturbations in the context of General Relativity. Apart from some explicit assumptions, there are some implicit, like the "continuity" of the functions in the perturbed metric across the surface of the body. In this work we sketch the basics for the analysis of the second order problem using the modern theory of perturbed matchings. In particular, the result we present is that when the energy density of the fluid in the static configuration does not vanish at the boundary, one of the functions of the second order perturbation in the setting of the original work by Hartle is not continuous. This discrepancy affects the calculation of the change in mass of the rotating star with respect to the static configuration needed to keep the central energy density unchanged.

  13. Methods for modeling impact-induced reactivity changes in small reactors.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tallman, Tyler N.; Radel, Tracy E.; Smith, Jeffrey A.; Villa, Daniel L.; Smith, Brandon M.; Radel, Ross F.; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Wilson, Paul Philip Hood

    2010-10-01

    This paper describes techniques for determining impact deformation and the subsequent reactivity change for a space reactor impacting the ground following a potential launch accident or for large fuel bundles in a shipping container following an accident. This technique could be used to determine the margin of subcriticality for such potential accidents. Specifically, the approach couples a finite element continuum mechanics model (Pronto3D or Presto) with a neutronics code (MCNP). DAGMC, developed at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, is used to enable MCNP geometric queries to be performed using Pronto3D output. This paper summarizes what has been done historically for reactor launch analysis, describes the impact criticality analysis methodology, and presents preliminary results using representative reactor designs.

  14. Siting Renewable Energy: Land Use and Regulatory Context

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Outka, Uma

    2010-01-01

    This article takes up the increasingly important land use question of siting for renewable energy. As concern over climate change grows, new policies are being crafted at all levels of government to support renewable energy as a way of reducing...

  15. Sensitivity of global tropical climate to land surface processes: Mean state and interannual variability

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ma, Hsi-Yen; Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Xue, Yongkang

    2013-03-01

    This study examines the sensitivity of global tropical climate to land surface processes (LSP) using an atmospheric general circulation model both uncoupled (with prescribed SSTs) and coupled to an oceanic general circulation model. The emphasis is on the interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical processes, which have first order influence on the surface energy and water budgets. The sensitivity to those processes is represented by the differences between model simulations, in which two land surface schemes are considered: 1) a simple land scheme that specifies surface albedo and soil moisture availability, and 2) the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model (SSiB), which allows for consideration of interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical process. Observational datasets are also employed to assess the reality of model-revealed sensitivity. The mean state sensitivity to different LSP is stronger in the coupled mode, especially in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, seasonal cycle of SSTs in the equatorial Pacific, as well as ENSO frequency, amplitude, and locking to the seasonal cycle of SSTs are significantly modified and more realistic with SSiB. This outstanding sensitivity of the atmosphere-ocean system develops through changes in the intensity of equatorial Pacific trades modified by convection over land. Our results further demonstrate that the direct impact of land-atmosphere interactions on the tropical climate is modified by feedbacks associated with perturbed oceanic conditions ("indirect effect" of LSP). The magnitude of such indirect effect is strong enough to suggest that comprehensive studies on the importance of LSP on the global climate have to be made in a system that allows for atmosphere-ocean interactions.

  16. Global warming and climate change - predictive models for temperate and tropical regions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Malini, B.H.

    1997-12-31

    Based on the assumption of 4{degree}C increase of global temperature by the turn of 21st century due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases an attempt is made to study the possible variations in different climatic regimes. The predictive climatic water balance model for Hokkaido island of Japan (a temperate zone) indicates the possible occurrence of water deficit for two to three months, which is a unknown phenomenon in this region at present. Similarly, India which represents tropical region also will experience much drier climates with increased water deficit conditions. As a consequence, the thermal region of Hokkaido which at present is mostly Tundra and Micro thermal will change into a Meso thermal category. Similarly, the moisture regime which at present supports per humid (A2, A3 and A4) and Humid (B4) climates can support A1, B4, B3, B2 and B1 climates indicating a shift towards drier side of the climatic spectrum. Further, the predictive modes of both the regions have indicated increased evapotranspiration rates. Although there is not much of change in the overall thermal characteristics of the Indian region the moisture regime indicates a clear shift towards the aridity in the country.

  17. Recent Trends in Land Tenure in Texas. 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Motheral, Joe

    1944-01-01

    IN TEXAS JOE MOTHERAL Division of Farm and Ranch Economics [Blank Page in Original Bulletin] Public interest in the subject of land tenure has been height- ened by the swift changes, in the tenure pattern of the Southwest during the last decade.... In Texas, Common methods of renting farm land such as the "third-and-fourth" system, which is adapted to the growing of annual cash crops, proved to be inadequate in numerous instances where cotton acreage was reduced and a live- stock program...

  18. Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2013-04-13

    This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

  19. Reply to comment by Keith J. Beven and Hannah L. Cloke on â??Hyperresolution global land surface modeling: Meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's terrestrial waterâ?ť

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2012-01-01

    robust hyper-resolution Earth System Models that includedevelopment of ‘‘Earth System Climate Models’’ that include

  20. Radiative forcing and temperature response to changes in urban albedos and associated CO2 offsets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Menon, Surabi; Akbari, Hashem; Mahanama, Sarith; Sednev, Igor; Levinson, Ronnen

    2010-02-12

    The two main forcings that can counteract to some extent the positive forcings from greenhouse gases from pre-industrial times to present-day are the aerosol and related aerosol-cloud forcings, and the radiative response to changes in surface albedo. Here, we quantify the change in radiative forcing and land surface temperature that may be obtained by increasing the albedos of roofs and pavements in urban areas in temperate and tropical regions of the globe by 0.1. Using the catchment land surface model (the land model coupled to the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model), we quantify the change in the total outgoing (outgoing shortwave+longwave) radiation and land surface temperature to a 0.1 increase in urban albedos for all global land areas. The global average increase in the total outgoing radiation was 0.5 Wm{sup -2}, and temperature decreased by {approx}0.008 K for an average 0.003 increase in surface albedo. These averages represent all global land areas where data were available from the land surface model used and are for the boreal summer (June-July-August). For the continental U.S. the total outgoing radiation increased by 2.3 Wm{sup -2}, and land surface temperature decreased by {approx}0.03 K for an average 0.01 increase in surface albedo. Based on these forcings, the expected emitted CO{sub 2} offset for a plausible 0.25 and 0.15 increase in albedos of roofs and pavements, respectively, for all global urban areas, was found to be {approx} 57 Gt CO{sub 2}. A more meaningful evaluation of the impacts of urban albedo increases on global climate and the expected CO{sub 2} offsets would require simulations which better characterizes urban surfaces and represents the full annual cycle.

  1. Paradigm Change: Alternate Approaches to Constitutive and Necking Models for Sheet Metal Forming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoughton, Thomas B.; Yoon, Jeong Whan

    2011-08-22

    This paper reviews recent work proposing paradigm changes for the currently popular approach to constitutive and failure modeling, focusing on the use of non-associated flow rules to enable greater flexibility to capture the anisotropic yield and flow behavior of metals using less complex functions than those needed under associated flow to achieve that same level of fidelity to experiment, and on the use of stress-based metrics to more reliably predict necking limits under complex conditions of non-linear forming. The paper discusses motivating factors and benefits in favor of both associated and non-associated flow models for metal forming, including experimental, theoretical, and practical aspects. This review is followed by a discussion of the topic of the forming limits, the limitations of strain analysis, the evidence in favor of stress analysis, the effects of curvature, bending/unbending cycles, triaxial stress conditions, and the motivation for the development of a new type of forming limit diagram based on the effective plastic strain or equivalent plastic work in combination with a directional parameter that accounts for the current stress condition.

  2. Land-use Leakage

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Kim, Son H.; Wise, Marshall A.; Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page

    2009-12-01

    Leakage occurs whenever actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in one part of the world unleash countervailing forces elsewhere in the world so that reductions in global emissions are less than emissions mitigation in the mitigating region. While many researchers have examined the concept of industrial leakage, land-use policies can also result in leakage. We show that land-use leakage is potentially as large as or larger than industrial leakage. We identify two potential land-use leakage drivers, land-use policies and bioenergy. We distinguish between these two pathways and run numerical experiments for each. We also show that the land-use policy environment exerts a powerful influence on leakage and that under some policy designs leakage can be negative. International “offsets” are a potential mechanism to communicate emissions mitigation beyond the borders of emissions mitigating regions, but in a stabilization regime designed to limit radiative forcing to 3.7 2/m2, this also implies greater emissions mitigation commitments on the part of mitigating regions.

  3. Energy and land use

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-12-01

    This report addresses the land use impacts of past and future energy development and summarizes the major federal and state legislation which influences the potential land use impacts of energy facilities and can thus influence the locations and timing of energy development. In addition, this report describes and presents the data which are used to measure, and in some cases, predict the potential conflicts between energy development and alternative uses of the nation's land resources. The topics section of this report is divided into three parts. The first part describes the myriad of federal, state and local legislation which have a direct or indirect impact upon the use of land for energy development. The second part addresses the potential land use impacts associated with the extraction, conversion and combustion of energy resources, as well as the disposal of wastes generated by these processes. The third part discusses the conflicts that might arise between agriculture and energy development as projected under a number of DOE mid-term (1990) energy supply and demand scenarios.

  4. Understanding Changes in the Asian Summer Monsoon over the Past Millennium: Insights from a Long-Term Coupled Model Simulation*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thompson, Anne

    green- house warming is likely to strengthen the ASM as a result of the differential warming of land and ocean that arises from the delay in ocean surface warming. All other factors being equal, greater warming over land- masses implies greater land­sea heating contrasts, in turn favoring a stronger summer

  5. Integrated modeling of CO2 storage and leakage scenarios including transitions between super- and sub-critical conditions, and phase change between liquid and gaseous CO2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pruess, K.

    2011-05-15

    Storage of CO{sub 2} in saline aquifers is intended to be at supercritical pressure and temperature conditions, but CO{sub 2} leaking from a geologic storage reservoir and migrating toward the land surface (through faults, fractures, or improperly abandoned wells) would reach subcritical conditions at depths shallower than 500-750 m. At these and shallower depths, subcritical CO{sub 2} can form two-phase mixtures of liquid and gaseous CO{sub 2}, with significant latent heat effects during boiling and condensation. Additional strongly non-isothermal effects can arise from decompression of gas-like subcritical CO{sub 2}, the so-called Joule-Thomson effect. Integrated modeling of CO{sub 2} storage and leakage requires the ability to model non-isothermal flows of brine and CO{sub 2} at conditions that range from supercritical to subcritical, including three-phase flow of aqueous phase, and both liquid and gaseous CO{sub 2}. In this paper, we describe and demonstrate comprehensive simulation capabilities that can cope with all possible phase conditions in brine-CO{sub 2} systems. Our model formulation includes: (1) an accurate description of thermophysical properties of aqueous and CO{sub 2}-rich phases as functions of temperature, pressure, salinity and CO{sub 2} content, including the mutual dissolution of CO{sub 2} and H{sub 2}O; (2) transitions between super- and subcritical conditions, including phase change between liquid and gaseous CO{sub 2}; (3) one-, two-, and three-phase flow of brine-CO{sub 2} mixtures, including heat flow; (4) non-isothermal effects associated with phase change, mutual dissolution of CO{sub 2} and water, and (de-) compression effects; and (5) the effects of dissolved NaCl, and the possibility of precipitating solid halite, with associated porosity and permeability change. Applications to specific leakage scenarios demonstrate that the peculiar thermophysical properties of CO{sub 2} provide a potential for positive as well as negative feedbacks on leakage rates, with a combination of self-enhancing and self-limiting effects. Lower viscosity and density of CO{sub 2} as compared to aqueous fluids provides a potential for self-enhancing effects during leakage, while strong cooling effects from liquid CO{sub 2} boiling into gas, and from expansion of gas rising towards the land surface, act to self-limit discharges. Strong interference between fluid phases under three-phase conditions (aqueous - liquid CO{sub 2} - gaseous CO{sub 2}) also tends to reduce CO{sub 2} fluxes. Feedback on different space and time scales can induce non-monotonic behavior of CO{sub 2} flow rates.

  6. FTT:Power : A global model of the power sector with induced technological change and natural resource depletion

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mercure, J -F

    2012-01-01

    This work introduces a model of Future Technology Transformations for the power sector (FTT:Power), a representation of global power systems based on market competition, induced technological change (ITC) and natural resource use and depletion. It is the first component of a family of sectoral bottom-up models of technology, designed for integration into the global macroeconometric model E3MG. ITC occurs as a result of technological learning produced by cumulative investment and leads to highly nonlinear, irreversible and path dependent technological transitions. The model uses a dynamic coupled set of logistic differential equations. As opposed to traditional bottom-up energy models based on systems optimisation, such differential equations offer an appropriate treatment of the times and structure of change involved in sectoral technology transformations, as well as a much reduced computational load. Resource use and depletion are represented by local cost-supply curves, which give rise to different regional...

  7. Coastal communities and climate change : a dynamic model of risk perception, storms, and adaptation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Franck, Travis Read

    2009-01-01

    Climate change impacts, including sea-level rise and changes in tropical storm frequency and intensity, will pose signicant challenges to city planners and coastal zone managers trying to make wise investment and protection ...

  8. Climate change and agriculture : global and regional effects using an economic model of international trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reilly, John M.

    1993-01-01

    Empirical estimates of the economic welfare implications of the impact of climate change on global agricultural production are made. Agricultural yield changes resulting from climate scenarios associated with a doubling ...

  9. Monthly Variable-based Degree Day Template: A Spreadsheet Procedure Calculating a 3 Parameter Change-point Model for Residential or Commercial Buildings 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Landman, D. S.; Haberl, J. S.

    1996-01-01

    This report presents a spreadsheet procedure for calculating a variable-based degree day or three parameter change-point models using monthly utility billing data and coincident weather data. These models were used to model monthly energy...

  10. Climate Change and Extinctions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sinervo, Barry

    2013-01-01

    Lectures presents: Climate Change and Extinctions Happening2013. He will present a climate change extinction model that

  11. Land–Ocean Warming Contrast over a Wide Range of Climates: Convective Quasi-Equilibrium Theory and Idealized Simulations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Byrne, Michael Patrick

    Surface temperatures increase at a greater rate over land than ocean in simulations and observations of global warming. It has previously been proposed that this land–ocean warming contrast is related to different changes ...

  12. Finding GIS data: Land cover and land use in Kansas

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Houser, Rhonda

    2006-12-08

    classes with no key to indicate class descriptions. The student understands how human actions modify the physical environment. The student helps create both a hard copy and digital pie chart that shows relative land cover class areas. The student... helps create a digital pie chart that shows relative land cover class areas. The student helps create a pie chart by hand that shows relative land cover class areas. The student creates e a pie chart by hand that shows relative land cover class...

  13. Stumped by Detroit's Vacant Land Process?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischer, Lucia; Kiani, Naria; O'Brien-Kovari, Lilly; Ordower, Aaron

    2014-01-01

    Stumped by Detroit's Vacant Land Process?Illustrating the Role of the Detroit Land Bank AuthorityLos Angeles STUMPED BY DETROIT’S VACANT LAND PROCESS?

  14. Sandia Energy - Bureau of Land Management

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bureau of Land Management Home Climate & Earth Systems Sustainable Subsurface Energy Development Program Leadership Bureau of Land Management Bureau of Land ManagementMaelyn...

  15. Chennai Urban Land Market Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dowall, David E; Monkkonen, Paavo

    2007-01-01

    for 2003 and 2004 land price data (Tables 13 and 14), adding25 Table 12: Price Gradient Regression Results for35 Table 15: Average Price of Land in Residential Plots and

  16. Improving parameter estimation and water table depth simulation in a land surface model using GRACE water storage and estimated base flow data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lo, Min-Hui; Famiglietti, James S; Yeh, P. J.-F.; Syed, T. H

    2010-01-01

    model using GRACE water storage and estimated base flow data,model using GRACE water storage and estimated base flow datawith esti- mated base flow data in the model calibration.

  17. thesis abstract: Assessing the effect of land-cover changes on species distributions: application of habitat models to conservation of Mediterranean bird communities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vallecillo, Sara

    2010-01-01

    ISSN 1948-6596 news and update thesis abstract Assessing theThe general aim of my thesis was to identify the ecologicalmain results from my PhD thesis derived in four manuscripts,

  18. Physically-based dynamic modelling of the effect of land use changes on shallow landslide initiation in the Western Ghats of Kerala, India

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jetten, Victor

    initiation in the Western Ghats of Kerala, India Sekhar Lukose Kuriakose #12;ITC dissertation number 178 ITC, Kerala, India Fysisch-dynamisch modeleren van de gevolgen van landgebruiksveranderingen op het veroorzaken van oppervlakkige aardverschuivingen in het West Ghats gebergte, Kerala, India (met een

  19. Ecosystem feedbacks to climate change in California: Development, testing, and analysis using a coupled regional atmosphere and land-surface model (WRF3-CLM3.5)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Subin, Z.M.

    2012-01-01

    shrub Whiteleaf manzanita (EGS) Mountain misery Ceanothustemperate coniferous forest 17% EGS; 18% BG Red fir forestmosaic 36% TEGC; 15% EGS; 9% Temperate conifer xeromorphic

  20. Verification and Validation of EnergyPlus Conduction Finite Difference and Phase Change Material Models for Opaque Wall Assemblies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tabares-Velasco, P. C.; Christensen, C.; Bianchi, M.; Booten, C.

    2012-07-01

    Phase change materials (PCMs) represent a potential technology to reduce peak loads and HVAC energy consumption in buildings. There are few building energy simulation programs that have the capability to simulate PCM but their accuracy has not been completely tested. This report summarizes NREL efforts to develop diagnostic tests cases to obtain accurate energy simulations when PCMs are modeled in residential buildings.

  1. Submission of manuscript to Energy and Buildings A thermal model for Phase Change Materials in a building roof for a

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Submission of manuscript to Energy and Buildings A thermal model for Phase Change Materials in "Energy and Buildings 70 (2014) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/ S0378778813007962" DOI : 10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.11.079 #12;Manuscript submitted to Energy and Buildings S.GUICHARD 2013 2

  2. Changing the Climate Sensitivity of an Atmospheric General Circulation Model through Cloud Radiative Adjustment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sokolov, Andrei P.

    Conducting probabilistic climate projections with a particular climate model requires the ability to vary the model’s characteristics, such as its climate sensitivity. In this study, the authors implement and validate a ...

  3. GCAM 3.0 Agriculture and Land Use: Data Sources and Methods

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Calvin, Katherine V.; Emanuel, William R.; Nathan, Mayda; Zhou, Yuyu

    2011-12-12

    This report presents the data processing methods used in the GCAM 3.0 agriculture and land use component, starting from all source data used, and detailing all calculations and assumptions made in generating the model inputs. The report starts with a brief introduction to modeling of agriculture and land use in GCAM 3.0, and then provides documentation of the data and methods used for generating the base-year dataset and future scenario parameters assumed in the model input files. Specifically, the report addresses primary commodity production, secondary (animal) commodity production, disposition of commodities, land allocation, land carbon contents, and land values.

  4. Aggressive landing maneuvers for unmanned aerial vehicles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bayraktar, Selcuk

    2006-01-01

    VTOL (Vertical Take Off and Landing) vehicle landing is considered to be a critically difficult task for both land, marine, and urban operations. This thesis describes one possible control approach to enable landing of ...

  5. Generic Workflow Models: How to Handle Dynamic Change and Capture Management Information?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van der Aalst, Wil

    subject to continuous change. Organizations are challenged to bring ideas and concepts to products and will accelerate. As a result, more and more workflow processes are subject to continuous change. At the moment Traditionally, workflow management systems are used to support static processes, i.e., processes which do

  6. An assessment of possible climate change in the Australian region based on intercomparison of general circulation modeling results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whetton, P.H.; Pittock, A.B.; Haylock, M.R. ); Rayner, P.J. )

    1994-03-01

    To assist in estimating likely future climate change in the Australian region, the authors examine the results of four different general circulation modeling experiments run to assess the equilibrium impact of doubling greenhouse gases. The results examined were the most recent available at the time of study from various research centers in North America and Europe, as well as those of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). The approach used is, first, to assess the quality of the control (1 x CO[sub 2]) simulations from each of the models of mean sea level (MSL) pressure and precipitation in the Australian region by comparing these with the corresponding observed patterns; and, second, to then analyze the 2 x CO[sub 2] results of only those model experiments with the best control simulations. Of the models examined two are chosen on the basis of their simulation of current climate in the region: the CSIRO four-level model (CSIRO4) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) model. For conditions of equivalent doubling of CO[sub 2], both models show substantial increases in surface air temperature of around 4[degrees]-6[degrees] inland and 2[degrees]-4[degrees]C in coastal regions. Both models show decreased MSL pressure over the Australian continent and increases in rainfall over northern, central, and eastern Australia, particularly in the summer half of the year. The CSIRO4 model, but not the UKMO model, also shows increased pressure to the south of the continent and decreased winter rainfall in southwest and southern Australia. Generally, field significance tests show the pattern and magnitude of the changes to be significant of CSIRO4 (for which the necessary monthly simulated data were available). 42 refs., 20 figs., 5 tabs.

  7. Land conversion in Amazonia and Northern South America : influences on regional hydrology and ecosystem response

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Knox, Ryan Gary

    2013-01-01

    A numerical model of the terrestrial biosphere (Ecosystem Demography Model) is compbined with an atmospheric model (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) to investigate how land conversion in the Amazon and ...

  8. Statistical modelling of masked gene regulatory pathway changes across microarray studies of interferon gamma activated macrophages 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forster, Thorsten

    2014-06-28

    Interferon gamma (IFN-?) regulation of macrophages plays an essential role in innate immunity and pathogenicity of viral infections by directing large and small genome-wide changes in the transcriptional program of ...

  9. 21st century change in ocean response to climate forcing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mar?elja, Stjepan

    2015-01-01

    Modeling globally averaged information on climate forcing from the land surface temperature data, the sea surface temperatures (SST) and the empirically determined relationship between the changes in SST and the turbulent diffusion of heat into the upper ocean demonstrates a consistent link. The modeling is accurate throughout the 20th century despite the different phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) or the strong divergence between land and ocean surface warming. It only fails during the last 15 years when SST drops well below the trend. The finding reinforces the view that slower global warming over the previous 15 years is not a caused by a negative phase of the IPO or by the variations in the upper ocean (top 700 m) warming but results from a change in the ocean behavior leading to increased heat transfer into the deeper ocean.

  10. Development of a Toolkit for Calculating Linear, Change-Point Linear and Multiple-Linear Inverse Building Energy Analysis Models, ASHRAE Research Project 1050-RP, Final Report 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kissock, J. K.; Haberl, J. S.; Claridge, D. E.

    2002-11-01

    This report summarizes the results of ASHRAE Research Project 1050: Development of a Toolkit for Calculating Linear, Change-Point Linear and Multiple Linear Inverse Building Energy Analysis Models. The Inverse Modeling ...

  11. Rich land Operations Office

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration wouldMassR&D100Nationalquestionnaires 0serialIndustrial ConsumptionRibbon The|Rich land

  12. Land Management - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home Room NewsInformationJesse Bergkamp Graduate studentScienceLaboratory program Labs and Field SiteLand

  13. Relative Roles of Changes in CO2 and Climate to Equilibrium Responses of Net Primary Production and Carbon Storage of the Terrestrial Biosphere

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    -GFDL) and a 2-dimensional climate model (Land-Ocean climate model at Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyRelative Roles of Changes in CO2 and Climate to Equilibrium Responses of Net Primary Production Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA 3 National Biological Service, Alaska Cooperative Fish

  14. Transitions to improved confinement regimes induced by changes in heating in zero-dimensional models for tokamak plasmas

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhu, H.; Chapman, S. C.; Dendy, R. O.; Itoh, K.

    2014-06-15

    It is shown that rapid substantial changes in heating rate can induce transitions to improved energy confinement regimes in zero-dimensional models for tokamak plasma phenomenology. We examine for the first time the effect of step changes in heating rate in the models of Kim and Diamond [Phys. Rev. Lett. 90, 185006 (2003)] and Malkov and Diamond [Phys. Plasmas 16, 012504 (2009)], which nonlinearly couple the evolving temperature gradient, micro-turbulence, and a mesoscale flow; and in the extension of Zhu et al. [Phys. Plasmas 20, 042302 (2013)], which couples to a second mesoscale flow component. The temperature gradient rises, as does the confinement time defined by analogy with the fusion context, while micro-turbulence is suppressed. This outcome is robust against variation of heating rise time and against introduction of an additional variable into the model. It is also demonstrated that oscillating changes in heating rate can drive the level of micro-turbulence through a period-doubling path to chaos, where the amplitude of the oscillatory component of the heating rate is the control parameter.

  15. Land Use and Ecosystems Data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    CDIAC products are indexed and searchable through a customized interface powered by ORNL's Mercury search engine. Products include numeric data packages, publications, trend data, atlases, models, etc. and can be searched for by subject area, keywords, authors, product numbers, time periods, collection sites, spatial references, etc. Some of the collections may also be included in the CDIAC publication titled Trends Online: A Compendium of Global Change Data. Most data sets, many with numerous data files, are free to download from CDIAC's ftp area. Land Use and Ecosystems information includes Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration Data Sets, data sets from Africa and Asia, the Worldwide Organic Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dataset, and much more.

  16. Wetland model in an earth systems modeling framework for regional environmental policy analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Awadalla, Sirein Salah

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this research is to investigate incorporating a wetland component into a land energy and water fluxes model, the Community Land Model (CLM). CLM is the land fluxes component of the Integrated Global Systems ...

  17. Can land management and biomass utilization help mitigate global warming?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schlamadinger, B.; Lauer, M.

    1996-12-31

    With rising concern about the increase of the CO{sub 2} concentration in the earth`s atmosphere there is considerable interest in various land-use based mitigation options, like afforestation of surplus agricultural land with or without subsequent harvest; improved forest management; strategies that rely on wood plantations managed in short rotation or agricultural crops with high yields to produce bioenergy, timber and other biomass products. In the first step of this study, the net carbon benefits of such strategies will be calculated per unit of land, i.e., per hectare, because it is assumed that land is the limiting resource for such strategies in the future, and thus, the benefits per unit land need to be optimized. For these calculations a computer model has been developed. The results take into account the time dependence of carbon storage in the biosphere and are shown graphically both for land and for plantation systems with constant output of biomass over time. In the second step, these results will be combined with data on available land for Austria. The potential contribution of each of the above strategies towards mitigating the Austrian CO{sub 2} emissions will be demonstrated. A comparison to other renewable mitigation options, like solar thermal or photovoltaics, will be drawn in terms of available land resources and overall CO{sub 2} reductions.

  18. A comparison of neural network and processbased models for vegetation distribution under global climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    climate change Eric Chown chown@cs.orst.edu Thomas G. Dietterich tgd@cs.orst.edu Department of Computer covering current climate and vegetation distribution in the coterminous United States. Completely automated on two tasks: prediction of current vegetation distribution given current climate and prediction

  19. Modeling Climate Change Policies in Canada and the U.S.: An Update 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Tubbs, W. J.

    2009-01-01

    and describe the major results. Various climate change policy runs were simulated for the both the Canadian and U. S. economies: a U. S. equivalent carbon price of $60 and $120 implemented either slowly or rapidly define the slow-shallow, slow-deep, fast...

  20. MODELING FOR FREE SURFACE FLOW WITH PHASE CHANGE XIAOYONG LUO, MINGJIU NI, ALICE YING, M. ABDOU

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdou, Mohamed

    of the incompressible flow with the heat and mass transfer model. We present a new second- order projection method methodology is successful in modeling the free surface with heat and mass transfer, though some severe surface flow with heat and mass transfer to help resolve feasibility issues encountered

  1. Modeling the response of subglacial drainage at Paakitsoq, West Greenland, to 21st century climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mayaud, Jerome R.; Banwell, Alison F.; Arnold, Neil S.; Willis, Ian C.

    2015-01-22

    , and into the future. Here, we apply a physically-based, subglacial hydrological model to the Paakitsoq region, west Greenland, and run it into the future to calculate patterns of daily subglacial water pressure fluctuations in response to climatic warming. The model...

  2. Does Model Sensitivity to Changes in CO2 Provide a Measure of Sensitivity to Other Forcings?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of simulations with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) climate model of intermediate complexity. Introduction The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) 2D climate model has been used in a number of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts (Manuscript received 25 April 2005, in final form 12 October 2005

  3. A depth-derived Pleistocene age model: Uncertainty estimates, sedimentation variability, and nonlinear climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wunsch, Carl

    A depth-derived Pleistocene age model: Uncertainty estimates, sedimentation variability. To avoid biasing this ``depth-derived'' age estimate, the depth scale is first corrected for the effects sediment accumulation rates are estimated and modeled as an autocorrelated stochastic process. Depth-derived

  4. Electrochemical-thermal modeling and microscale phase change for passive internal thermal management of lithium ion batteries.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fuller, Thomas F.; Bandhauer, Todd; Garimella, Srinivas

    2012-01-01

    A fully coupled electrochemical and thermal model for lithium-ion batteries is developed to investigate the impact of different thermal management strategies on battery performance. In contrast to previous modeling efforts focused either exclusively on particle electrochemistry on the one hand or overall vehicle simulations on the other, the present work predicts local electrochemical reaction rates using temperature-dependent data on commercially available batteries designed for high rates (C/LiFePO{sub 4}) in a computationally efficient manner. Simulation results show that conventional external cooling systems for these batteries, which have a low composite thermal conductivity ({approx}1 W/m-K), cause either large temperature rises or internal temperature gradients. Thus, a novel, passive internal cooling system that uses heat removal through liquid-vapor phase change is developed. Although there have been prior investigations of phase change at the microscales, fluid flow at the conditions expected here is not well understood. A first-principles based cooling system performance model is developed and validated experimentally, and is integrated into the coupled electrochemical-thermal model for assessment of performance improvement relative to conventional thermal management strategies. The proposed cooling system passively removes heat almost isothermally with negligible thermal resistances between the heat source and cooling fluid. Thus, the minimization of peak temperatures and gradients within batteries allow increased power and energy densities unencumbered by thermal limitations.

  5. Approximate models for the study of exponential changed quantities: Application on the plasma waves growth rate or damping

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xaplanteris, C. L.; Xaplanteris, L. C.; Leousis, D. P.

    2014-03-15

    Many physical phenomena that concern the research these days are basically complicated because of being multi-parametric. Thus, their study and understanding meets with big if not unsolved obstacles. Such complicated and multi-parametric is the plasmatic state as well, where the plasma and the physical quantities that appear along with it have chaotic behavior. Many of those physical quantities change exponentially and at most times they are stabilized by presenting wavy behavior. Mostly in the transitive state rather than the steady state, the exponentially changing quantities (Growth, Damping etc) depend on each other in most cases. Thus, it is difficult to distinguish the cause from the result. The present paper attempts to help this difficult study and understanding by proposing mathematical exponential models that could relate with the study and understanding of the plasmatic wavy instability behavior. Such instabilities are already detected, understood and presented in previous publications of our laboratory. In other words, our new contribution is the study of the already known plasmatic quantities by using mathematical models (modeling and simulation). These methods are both useful and applicable in the chaotic theory. In addition, our ambition is to also conduct a list of models useful for the study of chaotic problems, such as those that appear into the plasma, starting with this paper's examples.

  6. Evaluating the Use of Ocean Models of Different Complexity in Climate Change Studies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sokolov, Andrei P.

    The study of the uncertainties in future climate projections requires large ensembles of simulations with different values of model characteristics that define its response to external forcing. These characteristic include ...

  7. Water Body Temperature Model for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Thermal Cooling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Strzepek, K.

    We develop and test a physically based semi-Lagrangian water body temperature model to apply climatological data and thermal pollution from river-based power plants to historical river flow data in order to better understand ...

  8. Snow modelling for understanding human ecodynamics in periods of climate change 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Comeau, Laura Elizabeth Lamplugh

    2013-07-01

    This thesis tests and applies a new, physically based snow distribution and melt model at spatial scales of tens of metres and temporal scales of days across sub-arctic landscapes, in order to assess the significance of ...

  9. Advanced Technologies in Energy-Economy Models for Climate Change Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Morris, J.F.

    Considerations regarding the roles of advanced technologies are crucial in energy-economic modeling, as these technologies, while usually not yet commercially viable, could substitute for fossil energy when relevant policies ...

  10. The Impact of Climate Change on Air QualityRelated Meteorological Conditions in California. Part I: Present Time Simulation Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Shu-Hua

    The Impact of Climate Change on Air Quality­Related Meteorological Conditions in California. Part I on meteorology and air quality conditions in Cal- ifornia by dynamically downscaling Parallel Climate Model (PCM: Present Time Simulation Analysis ZHAN ZHAO Department of Land, Air, and Water Resources, University

  11. Mycorrhizal type determines the magnitude and direction of root-induced changes in decomposition in a temperate forest

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Phillips, Richard P.

    can accelerate soil C losses by provisioning microbes with energy to decompose organic matter composi- tion, and that shifts in the distribution of AM and ECM trees owing to climate change may- tion of root­microbe interactions in ecosystem and land surface models (Iversen, 2010; Cheng et al

  12. Ecological Modelling 229 (2012) 6475 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lopez-Carr, David

    2012-01-01

    ­natural systems: Spatial and multi-level models of tropical land use and cover change (LUCC) in Guatemala David (Lambin et al., 2003; Carr, 2004). Recent empirical studies have uncovered feedbacks within migration and LUCC (Carr, 2009), population change and LUCC (Liu et al., 2001), and socio-economic development

  13. Manuscript prepared for Geosci. Model Dev. with version 3.0 of the LATEX class copernicus.cls.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haak, Hein

    an interactive sea-ice and land component. SPEEDO is a global earth system model of intermediate complexity and predicting future changes. Global state-of-the-art earth system models are computationally expensive which. For these scientific purposes computationally efficient earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) have

  14. Exploration and Modeling of Structural changes in Waste Glass Under Corrosion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pantano, Carlos; Ryan, Joseph; Strachan, Denis

    2013-11-10

    Vitrification is currently the world-wide treatment of choice for the disposition of high-level nuclear wastes. In glasses, radionuclides are atomistically bonded into the solid, resulting in a highly durable product, with borosilicate glasses exhibiting particularly excellent durability in water. Considering that waste glass is designed to retain the radionuclides within the waste form for long periods, it is important to understand the long-term stability of these materials when they react in the environment, especially in the presence of water. Based on a number of previous studies, there is general consensus regarding the mechanisms controlling the initial rate of nuclear waste glass dissolution. Agreement regarding the cause of the observed decrease in dissolution rate at extended times, however, has been elusive. Two general models have been proposed to explain this behavior, and it has been concluded that both concepts are valid and must be taken into account when considering the decrease in dissolution rate. Furthermore, other processes such as water diffusion, ion exchange, and precipitation of mineral phases onto the glass surface may occur in parallel with dissolution of the glass and can influence long-term performance. Our proposed research will address these issues through a combination of aqueous-phase dissolution/reaction experiments and probing of the resulting surface layers with state-of-the-art analytical methods. These methods include solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (SSNMR) and time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (TOF-SIMS). The resulting datasets will then be coupled with computational chemistry and reaction-rate modeling to address the most persistent uncertainties in the understanding of glass corrosion, which indeed have limited the performance of the best corrosion models to date. With an improved understanding of corrosion mechanisms, models can be developed and improved that, while still conservative, take advantage of the inherent durability of the waste form to enable secure repositories to be engineered with a much higher density of waste disposition. We propose the synthesis, corrosion, and characterization of two sets of glass samples— containing approximately 8 single-component oxides each—as models for corrosion studies of more complicated glass systems (which can contain in excess of 25 single-component ingredients). Powdered samples and millimeter- sized coupons of these simpler glasses will be corroded in solutions that begin at circumneutral pH, but are known to increase in alkalinity as corrosion proceeds and saturation in silica species is approached. Through carefully selected isotopic substitutions with nuclides that are readily detected with SSNMR and TOF-SIMS methods, we will be able to follow the diffusion of atoms into and out of the reacted surface layers of these glasses and provide new data for testing with existing reaction models. The models can then be further extended or updated to take our new data into account, allowing the existing long-term glass corrosion models to more accurately reflect the extraordinary durability of these systems. With improved models, a significant opportunity exists to better utilize the storage volume of any geologic repository.

  15. Subtask 2.4 - Integration and Synthesis in Climate Change Predictive Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jaroslav Solc

    2009-06-01

    The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) completed a brief evaluation of the existing status of predictive modeling to assess options for integration of our previous paleohydrologic reconstructions and their synthesis with current global climate scenarios. Results of our research indicate that short-term data series available from modern instrumental records are not sufficient to reconstruct past hydrologic events or predict future ones. On the contrary, reconstruction of paleoclimate phenomena provided credible information on past climate cycles and confirmed their integration in the context of regional climate history is possible. Similarly to ice cores and other paleo proxies, acquired data represent an objective, credible tool for model calibration and validation of currently observed trends. It remains a subject of future research whether further refinement of our results and synthesis with regional and global climate observations could contribute to improvement and credibility of climate predictions on a regional and global scale.

  16. National Land Cover Data National Land Cover Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    _Data_Presentation_Form: raster digital data Other_Citation_Details: Classification and processing of the orginal remote sensing (NLCD). The NLCD is a 21-class land cover classification of the entire United States. It is derived from

  17. Climate Change and National Security

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alyson, Fleming; Summer, Kelly; Summer, Martin; Lauren, Franck; Jonathan, Mark

    2015-01-01

    data needed to construct effective climate change models and forecasts. Academic “Centers of Excellence” that focus on climate change

  18. Agricultural land use dynamics in the Brazilian Amazon based on remote sensing and census data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Camara, Gilberto

    that carbon dioxide (CO2) from land use change contributed to 12% (in terms of CO2 equivalents) of the totalAgricultural land use dynamics in the Brazilian Amazon based on remote sensing and census data of biodiversity, erosion, floods, lowered water tables, as well as increased release of carbon into the atmosphere

  19. Elsevier Editorial System(tm) for Land Use Policy Manuscript Draft

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Elsevier Editorial System(tm) for Land Use Policy Manuscript Draft Manuscript Number: Title the Corredor Bioceánico of southeastern Bolivia to determine if rates of agriculturally- driven forest) such research is accelerating. The determinants of land change are diverse, and no other facet has received more

  20. Dischargecalcium concentration relationships in streams of the Amazon and Cerrado of Brazil: soil or land use

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Discharge­calcium concentration relationships in streams of the Amazon and Cerrado of Brazil: soil ecosystem function. Throughout the Amazon and Cerrado regions of Brazil rapid changes in land use and land with data from 28 streams throughout Brazil. These streams come from three distinct regions and varied

  1. Economic transition and urban land expansion in Provincial China Jinlong Gao a, b

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wei, Yehua Dennis

    Economic transition and urban land expansion in Provincial China Jinlong Gao a, b , Yehua Dennis: Available online 29 September 2014 Keywords: Economic transition Marketization Globalization Decentralization Land use change Jiangsu a b s t r a c t China has undergone economic transition characterized

  2. Energy Budget-Based Simulation of Evapotranspiration from Land in the Great Lakes Basin

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Budget-Based Simulation of Evapotranspiration from Land in the Great Lakes Basin Primary-available data for change in net radiative energy for land surfaces in the same region in the same general energy available in this region according to the corresponding GCM. Thus there is a mismatch: While air

  3. 3) What makes a species invasive? i) Disturbance and land use hypothesis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nowak, Robert S.

    changes in the extent and frequency of disturbance to an ecosystem #12;3) What makes a species invasive? i3) What makes a species invasive? i) Disturbance and land use hypothesis Basic concepts: · Many;3) What makes a species invasive? i) Disturbance and land use hypothesis Basic concepts: · Invasive

  4. Changes in Surficial Features Associated with Geothermal Development...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    discharge, increase in fumarolic discharge, heat induced vegetation kills, and land subsidence. Factors responsible for such changes include seismic activity and related ground...

  5. Surface speciation of yttrium and neodymium sorbed on rutile: Interpretations using the change distribution model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ridley, Mora K.; Hiemstra, T; Machesky, Michael L.; Wesolowski, David J; Van Riemsdijk, Willem H.

    2012-01-01

    The adsorption of Y3+ and Nd3+ onto rutile has been evaluated over a wide range of pH (3 11) and surface loading conditions, as well as at two ionic strengths (0.03 and 0.3 m), and temperatures (25 and 50 C). The experimental results reveal the same adsorption behavior for the two trivalent ions onto the rutile surface, with Nd3+ first adsorbing at slightly lower pH values. The adsorption of both Y3+ and Nd3+ commences at pH values below the pHznpc of rutile. The experimental results were evaluated using a charge distribution (CD) and multisite complexation (MUSIC) model, and Basic Stern layer description of the electric double layer (EDL). The coordination geometry of possible surface complexes were constrained by molecular-level information obtained from X-ray standing wave measurements and molecular dynamic (MD) simulation studies. X-ray standing wave measurements showed an inner-sphere tetradentate complex for Y3+ adsorption onto the (110) rutile surface (Zhang et al., 2004b). TheMDsimulation studies suggest additional bidentate complexes may form. The CD values for all surface species were calculated based on a bond valence interpretation of the surface complexes identified by X-ray and MD. The calculated CD values were corrected for the effect of dipole orientation of interfacial water. At low pH, the tetradentate complex provided excellent fits to the Y3+ and Nd3+ experimental data. The experimental and surface complexation modeling results show a strong pH dependence, and suggest that the tetradentate surface species hydrolyze with increasing pH. Furthermore, with increased surface loading of Y3+ on rutile the tetradentate binding mode was augmented by a hydrolyzed-bidentate Y3+ surface complex. Collectively, the experimental and surface complexation modeling results demonstrate that solution chemistry and surface loading impacts Y3+ surface speciation. The approach taken of incorporating molecular-scale information into surface complexation models (SCMs) should aid in elucidating a fundamental understating of ion-adsorption reactions.

  6. Laboratory Studies of the Reactive Chemistry and Changing CCN Properties of Secondary Organic Aerosol, Including Model Development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scot Martin

    2013-01-31

    The chemical evolution of secondary-organic-aerosol (SOA) particles and how this evolution alters their cloud-nucleating properties were studied. Simplified forms of full Koehler theory were targeted, specifically forms that contain only those aspects essential to describing the laboratory observations, because of the requirement to minimize computational burden for use in integrated climate and chemistry models. The associated data analysis and interpretation have therefore focused on model development in the framework of modified kappa-Koehler theory. Kappa is a single parameter describing effective hygroscopicity, grouping together several separate physicochemical parameters (e.g., molar volume, surface tension, and van't Hoff factor) that otherwise must be tracked and evaluated in an iterative full-Koehler equation in a large-scale model. A major finding of the project was that secondary organic materials produced by the oxidation of a range of biogenic volatile organic compounds for diverse conditions have kappa values bracketed in the range of 0.10 +/- 0.05. In these same experiments, somewhat incongruently there was significant chemical variation in the secondary organic material, especially oxidation state, as was indicated by changes in the particle mass spectra. Taken together, these findings then support the use of kappa as a simplified yet accurate general parameter to represent the CCN activation of secondary organic material in large-scale atmospheric and climate models, thereby greatly reducing the computational burden while simultaneously including the most recent mechanistic findings of laboratory studies.

  7. Modeling of coupled heat and mass transfers with phase change in a porous medium: Application to superheated steam drying

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Daurelle, J.V.; Topin, F.; Occelli, R. [IUSTI, Marseille (France)

    1998-01-01

    The physical model is based on balance equations at the representative elementary volume. The considered medium has three phases (liquid, solid, and gas). The gas phase includes two components (air and vapor). The authors use the mass balance equations on air and water (liquid and steam) as well as the heat equation in order to describe the phenomena. The system of equations is closed via classical relations in these media, which leads to a three-equation system with coupled nonlinear partial derivatives. The authors have applied this model to superheated steam drying. A solution model of the coupled nonlinear equation system based on the finite element method in a two-dimensional configuration was developed and validated. This approach allows one to determine all the variables of the problem. It is a complementary tool of analysis that opens access to nonmeasurable variables, such as the phase change rate. This computation model was applied to a configuration studied experimentally. The numerical and experimental results agree in nondimensional time. This double approach has enabled them to point out and evaluate new mechanisms typical of this drying method.

  8. An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model ...

  9. Title: The effects of uncertainty, trust, structure and resistance to change in the diffusion of management accounting innovations: an agent based modeling approach.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    inherent to management accounting innovation and change. Initially, organizational actors can be in three1 Title: The effects of uncertainty, trust, structure and resistance to change in the diffusion of management accounting innovations: an agent based modeling approach. Author 1: Bertrand Masquefa1 , Ph

  10. Land and Facility Use Planning

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1996-07-09

    The Land and Facility Use Planning process provides a way to guide future site development and reuse based on the shared long-term goals and objectives of the Department, site and its stakeholders. Does not cancel other directives.

  11. Multi-model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation of Historical and Projected Future Changes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Dentener, Frank; McConnell, J.R.; Ro, C-U; Shaw, Mark; Vet, Robert; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Dalsoren, S.; Doherty, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, Steven J.; Josse, B.; Lee, Y. H.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, David; Shindell, Drew; Skeie, R. B.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S.; Zeng, G.; Curran, M.; Dahl-Jensen, D.; Das, S.; Fritzsche, D.; Nolan, M.

    2013-08-20

    We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States, but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching >1300 mgN/m2/yr averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, ~30-50% larger than the values in any region currently (2000). Despite known issues, the new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

  12. Cell-autonomous progeroid changes in conditional mouse models for repair endonuclease XPG deficiency

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barnhoorn, Sander [Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam (The Netherlands). Dept. of Genetics.; Uittenboogaard, Lieneke M. [Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam (The Netherlands). Dept. of Genetics.; Jaarsma, Dick [Erasmus Univ. Medical Center, Rotterdam (The Netherlands). Dept. of Neuroscience.; Vermeij, Wilbert P. [Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam (The Netherlands). Dept. of Genetics.; Tresini, Maria [Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam (The Netherlands). Dept. of Genetics.; Weymaere, Michael [Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam (The Netherlands). Dept. of Genetics.; Menoni, Hervé [Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam (The Netherlands). Dept. of Genetics.; Brandt, Renata M. C. [Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam (The Netherlands). Dept. of Genetics.; de Waard, Monique C. [VU Univ. Medical Center, Amsterdam (The Netherlands). Dept. of Intensive Care.; Botter, Sander M. [Uniklinik Balgrist, Zurich (Switzerland); Sarker, Altaf H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Life Sciences Division.; Jaspers, Nicolaas G. J. [Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam (The Netherlands). Dept. of Genetics; van der Horst, Gijsbertus T. J. [Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam (The Netherlands). Dept. of Genetics.; Cooper, Priscilla K. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Life Sciences Division.; Hoeijmakers, Jan H. J. [Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam (The Netherlands). Dept. of Genetics.; van der Pluijm, Ingrid [Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam (The Netherlands). Dept. of Genetics and Dept. of Vascular Surgery.; Niedernhofer, Laura J. [The Scripps Research Institute, San Diego, CA (United States)

    2014-10-09

    As part of the Nucleotide Excision Repair (NER) process, the endonuclease XPG is involved in repair of helix-distorting DNA lesions, but the protein has also been implicated in several other DNA repair systems, complicating genotype-phenotype relationship in XPG patients. Defects in XPG can cause either the cancer-prone condition xeroderma pigmentosum (XP) alone, or XP combined with the severe neurodevelopmental disorder Cockayne Syndrome (CS), or the infantile lethal cerebro-oculo-facio-skeletal (COFS) syndrome, characterized by dramatic growth failure, progressive neurodevelopmental abnormalities and greatly reduced life expectancy. Here, we present a novel (conditional) Xpg-/- mouse model which—in a C57BL6/FVB F1 hybrid genetic background—displays many progeroid features, including cessation of growth, loss of subcutaneous fat, kyphosis, osteoporosis, retinal photoreceptor loss, liver aging, extensive neurodegeneration, and a short lifespan of 4–5 months. We show that deletion of XPG specifically in the liver reproduces the progeroid features in the liver, yet abolishes the effect on growth or lifespan. In addition, specific XPG deletion in neurons and glia of the forebrain creates a progressive neurodegenerative phenotype that shows many characteristics of human XPG deficiency. Our findings therefore exclude that both the liver as well as the neurological phenotype are a secondary consequence of derailment in other cell types, organs or tissues (e.g. vascular abnormalities) and support a cell-autonomous origin caused by the DNA repair defect itself. In addition they allow the dissection of the complex aging process in tissue- and cell-type-specific components. Moreover, our data highlight the critical importance of genetic background in mouse aging studies, establish the Xpg-/- mouse as a valid model for the severe form of human XPG patients and segmental accelerated aging, and strengthen the link between DNA damage and aging.

  13. Cell-autonomous progeroid changes in conditional mouse models for repair endonuclease XPG deficiency

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Barnhoorn, Sander; Uittenboogaard, Lieneke M.; Jaarsma, Dick; Vermeij, Wilbert P.; Tresini, Maria; Weymaere, Michael; Menoni, Hervé; Brandt, Renata M. C.; de Waard, Monique C.; Botter, Sander M.; et al

    2014-10-09

    As part of the Nucleotide Excision Repair (NER) process, the endonuclease XPG is involved in repair of helix-distorting DNA lesions, but the protein has also been implicated in several other DNA repair systems, complicating genotype-phenotype relationship in XPG patients. Defects in XPG can cause either the cancer-prone condition xeroderma pigmentosum (XP) alone, or XP combined with the severe neurodevelopmental disorder Cockayne Syndrome (CS), or the infantile lethal cerebro-oculo-facio-skeletal (COFS) syndrome, characterized by dramatic growth failure, progressive neurodevelopmental abnormalities and greatly reduced life expectancy. Here, we present a novel (conditional) Xpg-/- mouse model which—in a C57BL6/FVB F1 hybrid genetic background—displays manymore »progeroid features, including cessation of growth, loss of subcutaneous fat, kyphosis, osteoporosis, retinal photoreceptor loss, liver aging, extensive neurodegeneration, and a short lifespan of 4–5 months. We show that deletion of XPG specifically in the liver reproduces the progeroid features in the liver, yet abolishes the effect on growth or lifespan. In addition, specific XPG deletion in neurons and glia of the forebrain creates a progressive neurodegenerative phenotype that shows many characteristics of human XPG deficiency. Our findings therefore exclude that both the liver as well as the neurological phenotype are a secondary consequence of derailment in other cell types, organs or tissues (e.g. vascular abnormalities) and support a cell-autonomous origin caused by the DNA repair defect itself. In addition they allow the dissection of the complex aging process in tissue- and cell-type-specific components. Moreover, our data highlight the critical importance of genetic background in mouse aging studies, establish the Xpg-/- mouse as a valid model for the severe form of human XPG patients and segmental accelerated aging, and strengthen the link between DNA damage and aging.« less

  14. OR I G I N A L AR T I C L E S The Urban Funnel Model and the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wu, Jianguo "Jingle"

    and agricultural conversion, as well as induced land-cover changes such as desertification, greatly modify

  15. Modeling sea level changes and geodetic variations by glacial isostasy: the improved SELEN code

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Spada, Giorgio; Galassi, Gaia; Colleoni, Florence

    2012-01-01

    We describe the basic features of SELEN, an open source Fortran 90 program for the numerical solution of the so-called "Sea Level Equation" for a spherical, layered, non-rotating Earth with Maxwell viscoelastic rheology. The Sea Level Equation was introduced in the 70s to model the sea level variations in response to the melting of late-Pleistocene ice-sheets, but it can be also employed for predictions of geodetic quantities such as vertical and horizontal surface displacements and gravity variations on a global and a regional scale. SELEN (acronym of SEa Level EquatioN solver) is particularly oriented to scientists at their first approach to the glacial isostatic adjustment problem and, according to our experience, it can be successfully used in teaching. The current release (2.9) considerably improves the previous versions of the code in terms of computational efficiency, portability and versatility. In this paper we describe the essentials of the theory behind the Sea Level Equation, the purposes of SELEN...

  16. NASA Cold Land Processes Field Experiment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    NASA Cold Land Processes Field Experiment Overview and Preliminary Results NASA Cold Land Processes Field Experiment Overview and Preliminary Results NASA Cold Land ProcessesNASA Cold Land Processes Field properties using active and passive microwave remote sensing. NASA DC-8 Airborne Laboratory with AIRSAR

  17. Higher U.S. Crop Prices Trigger Little Area Expansion so Marginal Land for Biofuel Crops Is Limited

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Swinton, S.; Babcock, Bruce; James, Laura; Bandaru, Varaprasad

    2011-06-12

    By expanding energy biomass production on marginal lands that are not currently used for crops, food price increases and indirect climate change effects can be mitigated. Studies of the availability of marginal lands for dedicated bioenergy crops have focused on biophysical land traits, ignoring the human role in decisions to convert marginal land to bioenergy crops. Recent history offers insights about farmer willingness to put non-crop land into crop production. The 2006-09 leap in field crop prices and the attendant 64% gain in typical profitability led to only a 2% increase in crop planted area, mostly in the prairie states

  18. Quantifying long term changes in streamflow characteristics in Texas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garg, Gaurav

    2005-02-17

    and management projects, water use, watershed land use changes, and climate changes. The main objective of this thesis is to assess the significance of the impacts of human activities such as construction of reservoirs, water supply diversions, increased water... of aquatic life and riparian habitat. Streamflow characteristics change over time as a result of water resources development and management projects, water use, watershed land use changes, and climate changes. The impacts of human activities on low flows...

  19. Effects of Large Volcanic Eruptions on Global Summer Climate and East Asian Monsoon Changes during the Last Millennium: Analysis of MPI-ESM Simulations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Phipps, Steven J.

    the scattering of incoming solar radiation by aerosol particles produces an increase of the fraction of solar for Meteorology. The model was driven by up-to-date reconstructions of external forcing, including natural forcing (solar and volcanic) and anthropogenic forcing (land-cover change and greenhouse gases). Cooling

  20. Moisture Flux Convergence in Regional and Global Climate Models: Implications for Droughts in the Southwestern United States Under Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gao, Yanhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Salathe, E.; Dominguez, Francina; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-05-10

    The water cycle of the southwestern United States (SW) is dominated by winter storms that maintain a positive annual net precipitation. Analysis of the control and future climate from four pairs of regional and global climate models (RCMs and GCMs) shows that the RCMs simulate a higher fraction of transient eddy moisture fluxes because the hydrodynamic instabilities associated with flow over complex terrain are better resolved. Under global warming, this enables the RCMs to capture the response of transient eddies to increased atmospheric stability that allows more moisture to converge on the windward side of the mountains by blocking. As a result, RCMs simulate enhanced transient eddy moisture convergence in the SW compared to GCMs, although both robustly simulate drying due to enhanced moisture divergence by the divergent mean flow in a warmer climate. This enhanced convergence leads to reduced susceptibility to hydrological change in the RCMs compared to GCMs.