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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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1

ORNL integrated forecasting system  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes the integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load. In the system, service area models of electrical energy (kWh) and load distribution (minimum and maximum loads and load duration curve) are linked to a state-level model of electrical energy (kWh). Thus, the service area forecasts are conditional upon the state-level forecasts. Such a linkage reduces considerably the data requirements for modeling service area electricity demand.

Rizy, C.G.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

2

Toward an Integrated Seasonal Forecasting System for South America  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: (i) an empirical model that uses Pacific and ...

C. A. S. Coelho; D. B. Stephenson; M. Balmaseda; F. J. Doblas-Reyes; G. J. van Oldenborgh

2006-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

3

Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

Not Available

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

4

Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.  

SciTech Connect

In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

5

Integration of Variable Generation Forecasting into System Operations: Current Practices and Future Requirements  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This project update provides the first output of the EPRI Bulk Renewable Integration Program Project P173-010, “Integration of Variable Generation Forecasts into System Operations.” This project, begun in 2013, aims to improve existing methods utilities/independent system operators (ISOs) use to integrate forecasts into system operations and develop new methods. This year’s goal was to identify current practices and future requirements. This was done by interacting with a wide ...

2013-12-11T23:59:59.000Z

6

Impact of a New Radiation Package, McRad, in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new radiation package, “McRad,” has become operational with cycle 32R2 of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). McRad includes an improved description of the land surface ...

J-J. Morcrette; H. W. Barker; J. N. S. Cole; M. J. Iacono; R. Pincus

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

7

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN; the former with primary contributions in the areas of climate and hydrologic forecasting and the latter Service (NWS) California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the California Department of Water

8

Model documentation report: Short-term Integrated Forecasting System demand model 1985. [(STIFS)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) Demand Model consists of a set of energy demand and price models that are used to forecast monthly demand and prices of various energy products up to eight quarters in the future. The STIFS demand model is based on monthly data (unless otherwise noted), but the forecast is published on a quarterly basis. All of the forecasts are presented at the national level, and no regional detail is available. The model discussed in this report is the April 1985 version of the STIFS demand model. The relationships described by this model include: the specification of retail energy prices as a function of input prices, seasonal factors, and other significant variables; and the specification of energy demand by product as a function of price, a measure of economic activity, and other appropriate variables. The STIFS demand model is actually a collection of 18 individual models representing the demand for each type of fuel. The individual fuel models are listed below: motor gasoline; nonutility distillate fuel oil, (a) diesel, (b) nondiesel; nonutility residual fuel oil; jet fuel, kerosene-type and naphtha-type; liquefied petroleum gases; petrochemical feedstocks and ethane; kerosene; road oil and asphalt; still gas; petroleum coke; miscellaneous products; coking coal; electric utility coal; retail and general industry coal; electricity generation; nonutility natural gas; and utility petroleum. The demand estimates produced by these models are used in the STIFS integrating model to produce a full energy balance of energy supply, demand, and stock change. These forecasts are published quarterly in the Outlook. Details of the major changes in the forecasting methodology and an evaluation of previous forecast errors are presented once a year in Volume 2 of the Outlook, the Methodology publication.

Not Available

1985-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)  

SciTech Connect

Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Comparative analysis of models integrating synoptic forecast data into potato late blight risk estimate systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Determinacy analysis, logistic regression, discriminant analysis and neural network models were compared for their accuracy in 5-day (120h) forecasts of daily potato late blight risk according to a modified-Wallin disease severity model. For 12 locations ... Keywords: Expert systems, Forecasting, Neural network models, Risk mitigation

Kathleen M. Baker; William W. Kirk

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations  

SciTech Connect

The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system “breaking points”, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

A Revised Hydrology for the ECMWF Model: Verification from Field Site to Terrestrial Water Storage and Impact in the Integrated Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land (TESSEL) is used operationally in the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) for describing the evolution of soil, vegetation, and snow over the continents at diverse spatial resolutions. A revised ...

Gianpaolo Balsamo; Anton Beljaars; Klaus Scipal; Pedro Viterbo; Bart van den Hurk; Martin Hirschi; Alan K. Betts

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

Composite forecasting in commodity systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Paper No. COMPOSI1E FORECASTING IN CO/Yt.flDITI SYSTfu\\1S1980 .i CfIAPTER COMPOSITE FORECASTING IN COMMOOITY SYSTEMS*to utilizeeconometric .modelsfor forecasting ! ,urposes. The

Johnson, Stanley R; Rausser, Gordon C.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

Mathematical and computer modelling reports: Modeling and forecasting energy markets with the intermediate future forecasting system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), which is the model used to forecast integrated energy markets by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The model contains representations of supply and demand for all of the ...

Frederic H. Murphy; John J. Conti; Susan H. Shaw; Reginald Sanders

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

15

A PGAS Implementation by Co-design of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Today the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) runs a 16 km global T1279 operational weather forecast model using 1,536 cores of an IBM Power7. Following the historical evolution in resolution upgrades, ECMWF could expect to be ... Keywords: PGAS, COARRAYS, FORTRAN2008, CRESTA,

George Mozdzynski, Mats Hamrud, Nils Wedi, Jens Doleschal, Harvey Richardson

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System Tianfang Yao DongmoZhang Qian (Multilingual Weather Forecasts Assistant) system will be demonstrated. It is developed to generate the multilingual text of the weather forecasts automatically. The raw data from the weather observation can be used

17

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system operation in terms of the efficiency of the system. The goal of this dissertation is to develop advanced statistical wind speed predictive models to reduce the uncertainties in wind, especially the short-term future wind speed. Moreover, a criterion is proposed to evaluate the performance of models. Cost reduction in power system operation, as proposed, is more realistic than prevalent criteria, such as, root mean square error (RMSE) and absolute mean error (MAE). Two advanced space-time statistical models are introduced for short-term wind speed forecasting. One is a modified regime-switching, space-time wind speed fore- casting model, which allows the forecast regimes to vary according to the dominant wind direction and seasons. Thus, it avoids a subjective choice of regimes. The other one is a novel model that incorporates a new variable, geostrophic wind, which has strong influence on the surface wind, into one of the advanced space-time statistical forecasting models. This model is motivated by the lack of improvement in forecast accuracy when using air pressure and temperature directly. Using geostrophic wind in the model is not only critical, it also has a meaningful geophysical interpretation. The importance of model evaluation is emphasized in the dissertation as well. Rather than using RMSE or MAE, the performance of both wind forecasting models mentioned above are assessed by economic benefits with real wind farm data from Pacific Northwest of the U.S and West Texas. Wind forecasts are incorporated into power system economic dispatch models, and the power system operation cost is used as a loss measure for the performance of the forecasting models. From another perspective, the new criterion leads to cost-effective scheduling of system-wide wind generation with potential economic benefits arising from the system-wide generation of cost savings and ancillary services cost savings. As an illustration, the integrated forecasts and economic dispatch framework are applied to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) equivalent 24- bus system. Compared with persistence and autoregressive models, the first model suggests that cost savings from integration of wind power could be on the scale of tens of millions of dollars. For the second model, numerical simulations suggest that the overall generation cost can be reduced by up to 6.6% using look-ahead dispatch coupled with spatio-temporal wind forecast as compared with dispatch with persistent wind forecast model.

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

18

Aviation forecasting and systems analyses  

SciTech Connect

The 9 papers in this report deal with the following areas: method of allocating airport runway slots; method for forecasting general aviation activity; air traffic control network-planning model based on second-order Markov chains; analyzing ticket-choice decisions of air travelers; assessing the safety and risk of air traffic control systems: risk estimation from rare events; forecasts of aviation fuel consumption in Virginia; estimating the market share of international air carriers; forecasts of passenger and air-cargo activity at Logan International Airport; and forecasting method for general aviation aircraft and their activity.

Geisinger, K.E.; Brander, J.R.G.; Wilson, F.R.; Kohn, H.M.; Polhemus, N.W.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations  

SciTech Connect

The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of variable generation on electric power system operations. Electric power system operators can reduce the...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Integrated Forecasting and Inventory Control for Seasonal Demand ...  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We present a data-driven forecasting technique with integrated inventory ... ponents of inventory management: the random demand is first estimated using ...

22

Integrated Forecasting and Inventory Control for Seasonal Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Mar 14, 2008 ... Abstract: We present a data-driven forecasting technique with integrated inventory control for seasonal data and compare it to the traditional ...

23

Statistical Forecasts Based on the National Meteorological Center's Numerical Weather Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The production of interpretive weather element forecasts from dynamical model output variables is now an integral part of the centralized guidance systems of weather services throughout the world. The statistical forecasting system in the United ...

Gary M. Carter; J. Paul Dallavalle; Harry R. Glahn

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The U.S. Navy Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is an IBM-AT compatible software package developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam. ATCF is designed to assist forecasters with the process of making tropical ...

Ronald J. Miller; Ann J. Schrader; Charles R. Sampson; Ted L. Tsui

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Load Forecasting for Modern Distribution Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Load forecasting is a fundamental activity for numerous organizations and activities within a utility, including planning, operations, and control. Transmission and Distribution (T&D) planning and design engineers use the load forecast to determine whether any changes and additions are needed to the electric system to satisfy the anticipated load. Other load forecast users include system operations, financial ...

2013-03-08T23:59:59.000Z

26

TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY AND TRANSPORTATION DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director DISCLAIMER This report was prepared by a California has developed longterm forecasts of transportation energy demand as well as projected ranges

27

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled Reanalysis ...

Suranjana Saha; Shrinivas Moorthi; Xingren Wu; Jiande Wang; Sudhir Nadiga; Patrick Tripp; David Behringer; Yu-Tai Hou; Hui-ya Chuang; Mark Iredell; Michael Ek; Jesse Meng; Rongqian Yang; Malaquías Peña Mendez; Huug van den Dool; Qin Zhang; Wanqiu Wang; Mingyue Chen; Emily Becker

28

Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

NCEP Dynamical Seasonal Forecast System 2000  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) numerical seasonal forecast system is described in detail. The new system is aimed at a next-generation numerical seasonal prediction in which focus is placed on land processes, initial ...

Masao Kanamitsu; Arun Kumar; Hann-Ming Henry Juang; Jae-Kyung Schemm; Wanqui Wang; Fanglin Yang; Song-You Hong; Peitao Peng; Wilber Chen; Shrinivas Moorthi; Ming Ji

2002-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P. [Dept. of Civil Eng., NIT, Silchar (India)

2010-10-26T23:59:59.000Z

31

Coarse Graining the Vorticity Equation in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System: The Search for Kinetic Energy Backscatter  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Stochastic kinetic energy backscatter parameterization schemes are now widely used in ensemble prediction systems to account for random error associated with excessive dissipation and unrepresented energy backscatter in numerical weather ...

G. J. Shutts

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of future contributions from various emerging transportation fuels and technologies is unknown. PotentiallyCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY AND TRANSPORTATION DIVISION B. B. Blevins Executive Director DISCLAIMER This report was prepared by a California

34

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple binning technique is developed to produce reliable 3-h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system obtained ...

David J. Stensrud; Nusrat Yussouf

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Evaluation of Probabilistic Medium-Range Temperature Forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble temperature forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System were assessed for quality against observations for 10 cities in western North America, for a 7-month period beginning in February 2007. Medium-range probabilistic ...

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Real-time wave forecasts are critical to a variety of coastal and offshore opera- tions. NOAA’s global wave forecasts, at present, do not extend into many coastal regions of interest. Even after more than two decades of the historical Exxon Valdez disaster, Cook Inlet (CI) and Prince William Sound (PWS) are regions that suffer from a lack of accurate wave forecast information. This dissertation develops high- resolution integrated wave forecasting schemes for these regions in order to meet the critical requirements associated with shipping, commercial and sport fishing vessel safety, and oil spill response. This dissertation also performs a detailed qualitative and quantitative assessment of the impact of various forcing functions on wave pre- dictions, and develops maps showing extreme variations in significant wave heights (SWHs). For instance, it is found that the SWH could vary by as much as 1 m in the northern CI region in the presence of currents (hence justifying the need for integration of the wave model with a circulation model). Such maps can be useful for several engineering operations, and could also serve as guidance tool as to what can be expected in certain regions. Aside from the system development, the issue of forecast reliability is also addressed for PWS region in the context of the associated uncertainty which confronts the manager of engineering operations or other planners. For this purpose, high-resolution 36-h daily forecasts of SWHs are compared with measurements from buoys and satellites for about a year. The results show that 70% of the peak SWHs in the range 5-8 m were predicted with an accuracy of 15% or less for a forecast lead time of 9 h. On average, results indicate 70% or greater likelihood of the prediction falling within a tolerance of ±(1*RMSE) for all lead times. This analysis could not be performed for CI due to lack of data sources.

Singhal, Gaurav

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint  

SciTech Connect

As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro?Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed

Nazrin Ullah; P. Choudhury

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was completed for the 31-yr period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and executed as a global, high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean–land surface–sea ice system to ...

Suranjana Saha; Shrinivas Moorthi; Hua-Lu Pan; Xingren Wu; Jiande Wang; Sudhir Nadiga; Patrick Tripp; Robert Kistler; John Woollen; David Behringer; Haixia Liu; Diane Stokes; Robert Grumbine; George Gayno; Jun Wang; Yu-Tai Hou; Hui-Ya Chuang; Hann-Ming H. Juang; Joe Sela; Mark Iredell; Russ Treadon; Daryl Kleist; Paul Van Delst; Dennis Keyser; John Derber; Michael Ek; Jesse Meng; Helin Wei; Rongqian Yang; Stephen Lord; Huug Van Den Dool; Arun Kumar; Wanqiu Wang; Craig Long; Muthuvel Chelliah; Yan Xue; Boyin Huang; Jae-Kyung Schemm; Wesley Ebisuzaki; Roger Lin; Pingping Xie; Mingyue Chen; Shuntai Zhou; Wayne Higgins; Cheng-Zhi Zou; Quanhua Liu; Yong Chen; Yong Han; Lidia Cucurull; Richard W. Reynolds; Glenn Rutledge; Mitch Goldberg

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Nonlinear forecasting and iterated function systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The theory of dynamical forecasting can be extended to iterated function systems. An unordered set of iterates may be sufficient to construct a simulation of the unknown dynamics. The underlying dynamical system may be nondeterministic: A random element may be allowed in the dynamics

Giorgio Mantica; B. G. Giraud

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

Comparative Evaluation of Weather Forecasting Systems: Sufficiency, Quality, and Accuracy  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The concept of sufficiency, originally introduced in the context of the comparison of statistical experiments, has recently been shown to provide a coherent basis for comparative evaluation of forecasting systems. Specifically, forecasting system ...

Martin Ehrendorfer; Allan H. Murphy

1988-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

Distributed Forcing of Forecast and Assimilation Error Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Temporally distributed deterministic and stochastic excitation of the tangent linear forecast system governing forecast error growth and the tangent linear observer system governing assimilation error growth is examined. The method used is to ...

Brian F. Farrell; Petros J. Ioannou

2005-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

WP1: Targeted and informative forecast system design  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

WP1: Targeted and informative forecast system design Emma Suckling, Leonard A. Smith and David Stainforth EQUIP Meeting ­ August 2011 Edinburgh #12;Targeted and informative forecast system design Develop models to support decision making (1.4) #12;Targeted and informative forecast system design KEY QUESTIONS

Stevenson, Paul

45

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - Energy Systems Integration...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Energy Systems Integration Facility NREL's Energy Systems Integration Facility Garners LEED Platinum View the NREL Press Release. NREL's multistory Energy Systems Integration...

46

New results in forecasting of photovoltaic systems output based on solar radiation forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Accurate short term forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) systems output has a great significance for fast development of PV parks in South-East Europe

Laurentiu Fara

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

47

Evaluating the Cloud Cover Forecast of NCEP Global Forecast System with Satellite Observation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To assess the quality of daily cloud cover forecast generated by the operational global numeric model, the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), we compose a large sample with outputs from GFS model and satellite observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) in the period of July 2004 to June 2008, to conduct a quantitative and systematic assessment of the performance of a cloud model that covers a relatively long range of time, basic cloud types, and in a global view. The evaluation has revealed the goodness of the model forecast, which further illustrates our completeness on understanding cloud generation mechanism. To quantity the result, we found a remarkably high correlation between the model forecasts and the satellite observations over the entire globe, with mean forecast error less than 15% in most areas. Considering a forecast within 30% difference to the observation to be a "good" one, we find that the probability for the GFS model to make good forecasts varies between...

Ye, Quanzhi

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

The Canadian Regional Data Assimilation and Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the recent changes to the regional data assimilation and forecasting system at the Canadian Meteorological Center. A major aspect is the replacement of the currently operational global variable resolution forecasting approach ...

Luc Fillion; Monique Tanguay; Ervig Lapalme; Bertrand Denis; Michel Desgagne; Vivian Lee; Nils Ek; Zhuo Liu; Manon Lajoie; Jean-François Caron; Christian Pagé

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

49

A web-based Hong Kong tourism demand forecasting system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Accurate predictions of future business activities are important for business decision-making. As a consequence, powerful and simple forecasting processes are urgently pursued by decision-makers. This study presents a tourism demand forecasting system ...

Haiyan Song; Zixuan Gao; Xinyan Zhang; Shanshan Lin

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

50

Empirical Correction of the NCEP Global Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper examines the extent to which an empirical correction method can improve forecasts of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Global Forecast System. The empirical correction is based on adding a forcing ...

Xiaosong Yang; Timothy DelSole; Hua-Lu Pan

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

51

An Improved Operational System for Forecasting Precipitation Type  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A Model Output Statistics system for forecasting the conditional probability of precipitation type (PoPT) became operational within the National Weather Service in September 1978. Forecasts are provided for three precipitation type categories: ...

Joseph R. Bocchieri; George J. Maglaras

1983-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect

We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.

Werth, D.; Garrett, A.

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

53

Integrated System  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Integrated Window System Our research activities in the field of high performance windows have led us to conclude that even by using high performance insulating glass units, low conductivity frames, and warm edge spacers, there are still untapped sources for improving energy efficiency in the design and use of residential windows. While such high performance windows are a dramatic improvement over conventional units, they do not reduce conductive losses through wall framing around the window, offer guarantees against excessive wall/window infiltration nor do they adapt to the daily and seasonal potentials for night insulation and summer shading. To meet this need, we have been working on the design, development, and prototyping of Integrated Window Systems (IWS) since 1993. Integrated Window Systems are a form of panelized construction where the wall panel includes an operable or fixed window sash, recessed night insulation, integral solar shading, and is built in a factory setting in order to minimize thermal short circuits and infiltration at joints. IWSs can be built in modular lengths to facilitate their installation with conventional wood frame stick construction or other forms of panelized construction.

54

How Do Forecasters Utilize Output From A Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecast System? Case Study Of A High-Impact Precipitation Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The proliferation of ensemble forecast system output in recent years motivates this investigation into how operational forecasters utilize convection-permitting ensemble forecast system guidance in the forecast preparation process. A sixteen-...

Clark Evans; Donald F. Van Dyke; Todd Lericos

55

Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

Information Center

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

Mid-range energy-forecasting system: structure, forecasts, and critique  

SciTech Connect

The Mid-Range Energy Forecasting System (MEFS) is a large-scale, interdisciplinary model of the US energy system maintained by the US Department of Energy. MEFS provides long-run regional forecasts of delivered prices for electricity, coal, gasoline, residual, distillate, and natural gas. A number of sets of MEFS forecasts are usually issued, each set corresponding to a different scenario. Because it forecasts prices and since these forecasts are regularly disseminated, MEFS is of considerable practical interest. A critical guide of the model's output for potential users is provided in this paper. The model's logic is described, the latest forecasts from MEFS are presented, and the reasonableness of both the forecasts and the methodology are critically evaluated. The manner in which MEFS interfaces with the Oil Market Simulation Model, which forecasts crude oil price, is also discussed. The evaluation concludes that while there are serious problems with MEFS, selective use can prove very helpful. 17 references, 1 figure, 2 tables.

DeSouza, G.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

An Integrated Approach to Mid- and Upper-Level Turbulence Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An automated procedure for forecasting mid- and upper-level turbulence that affects aircraft is described. This procedure, termed the Graphical Turbulence Guidance system, uses output from numerical weather prediction model forecasts to derive ...

R. Sharman; C. Tebaldi; G. Wiener; J. Wolff

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

58

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - Energy Systems Integration...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Energy Systems Integration Facility Newsroom The Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) will be one of the only megawatt-scale test facilities in the United States that...

59

Space-Time Wind Speed Forecasting for Improved Power System Dispatch  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In order to support large scale integration of wind power, state-of-the-art wind speed forecasting methods should provide accurate and adequate information to enable efficient scheduling of wind power in electric energy systems. In this article, space-time wind forecasts are incorporated into power system economic dispatch models. First, we proposed a new space-time wind forecasting model, which generalizes and improves upon a so-called regime-switching space-time model by allowing the forecast regimes to vary with the dominant wind direction and with the seasons. Then, results from the new wind forecasting model are implemented into a power system economic dispatch model, which takes into account both spatial and temporal wind speed correlations. This, in turn, leads to an overall more cost-effective scheduling of system-wide wind generation portfolio. The potential economic benefits arise in the system-wide generation cost savings and in the ancillary service cost savings. This is illustrated in a test system in the northwest region of the U.S. Compared with persistent and autoregressive models, our proposed method could lead to annual integration cost savings on the scale of tens of millions of dollars in regions with high wind penetration, such as Texas and the Northwest. Key words: Power system economic dispatch; Power system operation; Space-time statistical model; Wind data; Wind speed forecasting.

Xinxin Zhu; Marc G. Genton; Yingzhong Gu; Le Xie

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

60

An Example of Hurricane Tracking and Forecasting with a Global Analysis-Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The tracking of Hurricane Elena by the ECMWF operational analysis system is compared with reported positions from reconnaissance aircraft and coastal radar. An example forecast is shown for the operational model and also for an experimental ...

W. A. Heckley; M. J. Miller; A. K. Betts

1987-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Dynamical Properties of MOS Forecasts: Analysis of the ECMWF Operational Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The dynamical properties of ECMWF operational forecasts corrected by a (linear) model output statistics (MOS) technique are investigated, in light of the analysis performed in the context of low-order chaotic systems. Based on the latter work, ...

S. Vannitsem

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

Changes to the 1995 NCEP Operational Medium-Range Forecast Model Analysis–Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Recent changes in the operational National Centers for Environmental Prediction (formerly the National Meteorological Center) global analysis–forecast system are described. The most significant analysis change was the direct use of satellite-...

Peter Caplan; John Derber; William Gemmill; Song-You Hong; Hua-Lu Pan; David Parrish

1997-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

63

Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M. (Mathematics and Computer Science); (Univ. of Chicago); (New York Univ.)

2009-10-09T23:59:59.000Z

64

Ensemble Data Assimilation with the NCEP Global Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Real-data experiments with an ensemble data assimilation system using the NCEP Global Forecast System model were performed and compared with the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). All observations in the operational data stream were ...

Jeffrey S. Whitaker; Thomas M. Hamill; Xue Wei; Yucheng Song; Zoltan Toth

2008-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

65

Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System during the 2005/06 Cool Season  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple binning technique developed to produce reliable probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from a multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system is evaluated during the cool season of 2005/06. The technique uses ...

Nusrat Yussouf; David J. Stensrud

2008-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

To forecast short-term load in electric power system based on FNN  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Electric power system load forecasting plays an important part in the Energy Management System (EMS), which has a great effect on the operating, controlling and planning of power system. Accurate load forecasting, especially short-term load forecasting, ...

Yueli Hu; Huijie Ji; Xiaolong Song

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

67

Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Global large scale penetration of wind energy is accompanied by significant challenges due to the intermittent and unstable nature of wind. High quality short-term wind speed forecasting is critical to reliable and secure power system operations. This paper gives an overview of the current status of worldwide wind power developments and future trends, and reviews some statistical short-term wind speed forecasting models, including traditional time series models and advanced space-time statistical models. It also discusses the evaluation of forecast accuracy, in particular the need for realistic loss functions. New challenges in wind speed forecasting regarding ramp events and offshore wind farms are also presented.

Xinxin Zhu; Marc G. Genton

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

Description of the NMC Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Meteorological Center's (NMC) Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System is described in some detail. The system consists of 1) preprocessing of the initial guess, 2) optimum interpolation objective analysis, 3) update of the ...

Masao Kanamitsu

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

69

A Short-Term Ensemble Wind Speed Forecasting System for Wind Power Applications  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study develops an adaptive, blended forecasting system to provide accurate wind speed forecasts 1 h ahead of time for wind power applications. The system consists of an ensemble of 21 forecasts with different configurations of the Weather ...

Justin J. Traiteur; David J. Callicutt; Maxwell Smith; Somnath Baidya Roy

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

70

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area

71

Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We propose to develop a dynamic algorithm that intelligently analyzes existing solar weather data and constructs an increasingly more accurate equation/algorithm for predicting solar weather accurately in real time. This dynamic algorithm analyzes a wealth of data derived from scientific research and provides increasingly accurate solar forecasts. As the database of information grows over time, this algorithm perfects itself and reduces forecast uncertainties. This will provide a vastly more effective way of processing existing data for practical use in the public and private sectors. Specifically, we created an algorithm that stores data from several sources in a way that is useable, we created the ?dynamic algorithm? used for creating accurate/effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a vast improvement over current methods employed.

Fischer, Luke D.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

72

The Use of Digital Warping of Microwave Integrated Water Vapor Imagery to Improve Forecasts of Marine Extratropical Cyclones  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A technique is described in which forecasts of the locations of features associated with marine cyclones may be improved through the use of microwave integrated water vapor (IWV) imagery and image warping of forecast mesoscale model fields. Here, ...

G. David Alexander; James A. Weinman; J. L. Schols

1998-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

73

Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

Templeton, K.J.

1996-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

75

A Multiseason Climate Forecast System at the National Meteorological Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Coupled Model Project was established at the National Meteorological Center(NMC)in January l991 to develop a multiseason forecast system based on coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models. This provided a focus to combine expertise ...

Ming Ji; Arun Kumar; Ants Leetmaa

1994-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

76

Forecast Skill of the South American Monsoon System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The South American monsoon system (SAMS) is the most important climatic feature in South America and is characterized by pronounced seasonality in precipitation. This study uses the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast ...

Charles Jones; Leila M. V. Carvalho; Brant Liebmann

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

Forecasting the Maintenance of Quasi-Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of forecasting the maintenance of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is investigated through an examination of observed proximity soundings. Furthermore, environmental variables that are statistically different between mature and ...

Michael C. Coniglio; Harold E. Brooks; Steven J. Weiss; Stephen F. Corfidi

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

78

Distributed Forcing of Forecast and Assimilation Error Systems BRIAN F. FARRELL  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Distributed Forcing of Forecast and Assimilation Error Systems BRIAN F. FARRELL Division forecast system gov- erning forecast error growth and the tangent linear observer system governing deterministic and stochastic forcings of the forecast and observer systems over a chosen time interval

Farrell, Brian F.

79

Application of Learning Fuzzy Inference Systems in Electricity Load Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper highlights the results and applied techniques for the electricity load forecast competition organised by the European Network on Intelligent Technologies for Smart Adaptive Systems (www.eunite.org). The electricity load forecast problem is tackled in two di#erent stages by creating two di#erent models. The first model will predict the temperature and the second model uses the predicted temperature to forecast the maximum electricity load. For both model, learning fuzzy inference systems are applied. Initial fuzzy rules are generated and then the numerical data provided by Eastern Slovakian Electricity Corporation are used to learn the parameters of the learning fuzzy inference systems. The learning technique is applied for both temperature and load forecast.

Ahamd Lotfi

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

80

Systems Integration Division Homepage  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... systems integration and engineering, life cycle assessment, cyber-physical systems, productivity measurement, sustainability and energy efficiency. ...

2013-09-16T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - Integrated Deployment Workshop  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Integrated Deployment Workshop Integrated Deployment Workshop The Energy Systems Integration Facility workshop, Integrated Deployment, was held August 21 - 23, 2012 at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado. Each day of the workshop, which included a tour of the Energy Systems Integration Facility, focused on a different topic: Day 1: Utility-Scale Renewable Integration Day 2: Distribution-Level Integration Day 3: Isolated and Islanded Grid Systems The agenda and presentations from the workshop are below. Agenda Energy Systems Integration Facility Overview ESIF Technology Partnerships Integrated Deployment Model Integrated Deployment and the Energy Systems Integration Facility: Workshop Proceedings Printable Version Energy Systems Integration Home Research & Development

82

Energy Systems Integration  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Systems Integration Systems Integration Ben Kroposki, PhD, PE Director, Energy Systems Integration National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2 Reducing investment risk and optimizing systems in a rapidly changing energy world * Increasing penetration of variable RE in grid * Increasing ultra high energy efficiency buildings and controllable loads * New data, information, communications and controls * Electrification of transportation and alternative fuels * Integrating energy storage (stationary and mobile) and thermal storage * Interactions between electricity/thermal/fuels/data pathways * Increasing system flexibility and intelligence Current Energy Systems Future Energy Systems Why Energy Systems Integration? 3 Energy Systems Integration Continuum Scale Appliance (Plug)

83

Conceptual design of a geothermal site development forecasting system  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

A site development forecasting system has been designed in response to the need to monitor and forecast the development of specific geothermal resource sites for electrical power generation and direct heat applications. The system is comprised of customized software, a site development status data base, and a set of complex geothermal project development schedules. The system would use site-specific development status information obtained from the Geothermal Progress Monitor and other data derived from economic and market penetration studies to produce reports on the rates of geothermal energy development, federal agency manpower requirements to ensure these developments, and capital expenditures and technical/laborer manpower required to achieve these developments.

Neham, E.A.; Entingh, D.J.

1980-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

Potential Forecast Skill of Ensemble Prediction and Spread and Skill Distributions of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble forecasting is a feasible method to integrate a deterministic forecast with an estimate of the probability distribution of atmospheric states. At the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Ensemble Prediction ...

Roberto Buizza

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS) uses near-real-time atmospheric observa- tions and numerical weather prediction forecast guidance to produce three-dimensional forecasts of water temperature

86

Relative Merit of Model Improvement versus Availability of Retrospective Forecasts: The Case of Climate Forecast System MJO Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Retrospective forecasts of the new NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have been analyzed out to 45 days from 1999 to 2009 with four members (0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC) each day. The new version of CFS [CFS, version 2 (CFSv2)] shows ...

Qin Zhang; Huug van den Dool

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

87

Annual Cycle Integration of the NMC Medium-Range Forecasting (MRF) Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The NMC Global Spectral Model was integrated for one year. The model used is the same as the 1989 operational medium range forecast model except that the horizontal resolution was reduced from T80 to T40. Overall, the model was very successful in ...

M. Kanamitsu; K. C. Mo; E. Kalnay

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

Intelligent Circuit Breaker Forecasting and Prewarning System Research  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes an intelligent circuit breaker software and hardware design, real-time multi-task alarm system will be introduced into circuit breaker monitoring and control, to the timely opening and timely alarm. According to the different impact ... Keywords: Intelligent circuit breaker, forecasting, prewarning

Jiaomin Liu; Li Li; Yaxuan Li; Peng Liu

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

89

Knowledge representation in an expert storm forecasting system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

METEOR is a rule- and frame-based system for short-term (3-18 hour) severe convective storm forecasting. This task requires a framework that supports inferences about the temporal and spatial features of meteorological changes. Initial predictions are ...

Renee Elio; Johannes De Haan

1985-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

90

The Limited-Area Forecast Systems at the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taipei, Republic of China has entered the era of operational numerical weather prediction with the complete online operations of a Global Forecast System (GFS) and the Limited-Area Forecast Systems (LAFS). A ...

Bao-Fong Jeng; Hway-Jen Chen; Shwu-Ching Lin; Tzay-Ming Leou; Melinda S. Peng; Simon W. Chang; Wu-Ron Hsu; C.-P. Chang

1991-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

91

Climate Variability over the Tropical Indian Ocean Sector in the NSIPP Seasonal Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Prospects for forecasting Indian dipole mode (IDM) events with lead times of a season or more are examined using the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) coupled-model forecast system. The mean climatology of the system over ...

Roxana C. Wajsowicz

2004-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

A Numerical Daily Air Quality Forecast System for The Pacific Northwest  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A real-time photochemical air quality forecast system has been implemented for the Puget Sound region to support public awareness of air quality issues. The Air Indicator Report for Public Access and Community Tracking (AIRPACT) forecast system ...

Joseph Vaughan; Brian Lamb; Chris Frei; Rob Wilson; Clint Bowman; Cristiana Figueroa-Kaminsky; Sally Otterson; Mike Boyer; Cliff Mass; Mark Albright; Jane Koenig; Alice Collingwood; Mike Gilroy; Naydene Maykut

2004-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

Description and Verification of the NOAA Smoke Forecasting System: The 2007 Fire Season  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An overview of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) current operational Smoke Forecasting System (SFS) is presented. This system is intended as guidance to air quality forecasters and the public for fine particulate matter ...

Glenn D. Rolph; Roland R. Draxler; Ariel F. Stein; Albion Taylor; Mark G. Ruminski; Shobha Kondragunta; Jian Zeng; Ho-Chun Huang; Geoffrey Manikin; Jeffery T. McQueen; Paula M. Davidson

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

Use of a Real-Time Computer Graphics System in Analysis and Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Real-time computer graphics systems are being introduced into weather stations throughout the United States. A sample of student forecasters used such a system to solve specific specialized forecasting problems. Results suggest that for some ...

John J. Cahir; John M. Norman; Dale A. Lowry

1981-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

95

Shootout-89, A Comparative Evaluation of Knowledge-based Systems That Forecast Severe Weather  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the summer of 1989, the Forecast Systems Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sponsored an evaluation of artificial-intelligence-based systems that forecast severe convective storms. The evaluation experiment, ...

W. R. Moninger; C. Lusk; W. F. Roberts; J. Bullas; Bde Lorenzis; J. C. McLeod; E. Ellison; J. Flueck; P. D. Lampru; K. C. Young; J. Weaver; R. S. Philips; R. Shaw; T. R. Stewart; S. M. Zubrick

1991-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

96

California Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Phase 2: 12-Month Testing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report describes results from the second phase of the California Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Project.

2003-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

97

Lighting Group: Controls: Systems Integration  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Systems Integration Building Control Systems Integration Objective This research project investigates how diverse building control systems can be integrated to provide seamless...

98

Summer-Season Forecast Experiments with the NCEP Climate Forecast System Using Different Land Models and Different Initial Land States  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To examine the impact from land model upgrades and different land initializations on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)’s Climate Forecast System (CFS), extensive T126 CFS experiments are carried out for 25 summers with 10 ...

Rongqian Yang; Kenneth Mitchell; Jesse Meng; Michael Ek

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

99

Patterns of Land Surface Errors and Biases in the Global Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One year’s worth of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, sea level pressure) are validated for land-based stations over the entire planet for forecasts ...

David Werth; Alfred Garrett

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

A Diagnostic Verification of the Precipitation Forecasts Produced by the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A comparatively long period of relative stability in the evolution of the Canadian Ensemble Forecast System was exploited to compile a large homogeneous set of precipitation forecasts. The probability of exceedance of a given threshold was ...

Syd Peel; Laurence J. Wilson

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Evaluation of a Wind-Wave System for Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wave Forecasting. Part II: Waves  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A wind-wave forecast system, designed with the intention of generating unbiased ensemble wave forecasts for extreme wind events, is assessed. Wave hindcasts for 12 tropical cyclones (TCs) are forced using a wind analysis produced from a ...

Steven M. Lazarus; Samuel T. Wilson; Michael E. Splitt; Gary A. Zarillo

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

The Thunderstorm Interactive Forecast System: Turning Automated Thunderstorm Tracks into Severe Weather Warnings  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has developed a new tool called the Thunderstorm Interactive Forecast System (TIFS; formerly known as ThunderBox) for interactively producing finished severe weather warnings and other forecasts from ...

John Bally

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

103

Neural networks based multiplex forecasting system of the end-point of copper blow period  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The neural network and the experiential evaluation method are introduced into the industrial converting process forecast, and a multiplex forecast system is proposed at the end-point of copper blow period in a matte converting process. The fuzzy clustering ...

Lihua Xue; Hongzhong Huang; Yaohua Hu; Zhangming Shi

2005-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

104

An Inner-Shelf Wave Forecasting System for the U.S. Pacific Northwest  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational inner-shelf wave forecasting system was implemented for the Oregon and southwest Washington coast in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). High-resolution wave forecasts are useful for navigational planning, identifying wave energy ...

Gabriel García-Medina; H. Tuba Özkan-Haller; Peter Ruggiero; Jeffrey Oskamp

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

105

A deterministic air quality forecasting system for Torino urban area, Italy  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An urban air quality forecasting system for Torino city has been developed, within the EU funded project FUMAPEX, to support the prevention and management of urban air pollution episodes. The proposed forecasting system is designed to provide stakeholders ... Keywords: Air quality forecasting, Air quality management, Chemical transport models, Urban air pollution, Urban meteorology

S. Finardi; R. De Maria; A. D'Allura; C. Cascone; G. Calori; F. Lollobrigida

2008-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

106

A first look at Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) for hydrological seasonal prediction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A first look at Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) for hydrological seasonal prediction Xing, the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), with advanced physics, increased resolution and refined initiali- zation to improve the seasonal climate forecasts. We present a first look at the capability

Pan, Ming

107

Advanced Integrated Systems Technology Development  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Research Energy Systems Integration Environmentallyenergy use, combined with the capability of the BMS system, including alarms to identify anomalies. Integration

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

108

Systems Integration (Fact Sheet)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The Systems Integration (SI) subprogram works closely with industry, universities, and the national laboratories to overcome technical barriers to the large-scale deployment of solar technologies. To support these goals, the subprogram invests primarily in four areas: grid integration, technology validation, solar resource assessment, and balance of system development.

Not Available

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from NCEP’s Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) System with Reference to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Using Lumped Hydrologic Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precipitation forecasts from the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are verified for the period April 2006–August 2010. Verification is conducted for 10–20 hydrologic basins in ...

James D. Brown; Dong-Jun Seo; Jun Du

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

110

FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann*, Hashini Wickramarathne*, Hans Georg Beyer +  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann will highly benefit from forecast information on the expected power production. This forecast information and evaluate an approach to forecast regional PV power production. The forecast quality was investigated

Heinemann, Detlev

111

322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting: Similar  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

: Progress Report on Electricity Price Forecast As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long-term wholesale electricity market price forecast. Staff will review how the forecasts are made and some Forecast Update #12;Process Overview 2 Regional Portfolio Model Electric Demand Forecasting System (Long

Luh, Peter

112

California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting System Development, Vol. 3  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The rated capacity of wind generation in California is expected to grow rapidly in the future beyond the approximately 2100 MW in place at the end of 2005. The main drivers are the state's 20 percent Renewable Portfolio Standard requirement in 2010 and the low cost of wind energy relative to other renewable energy sources. As wind is an intermittent generation resource and weather changes can cause large and rapid changes in output, system operators will need accurate and robust wind energy forecasting ...

2006-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

113

Application of the NCEP Ensemble Prediction System to Medium-Range Forecasting in South Africa: New Products, Benefits, and Challenges  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Forecasting System (EFS) is used operationally in South Africa for medium-range forecasts up to 14 days ahead. The use of model-generated probability forecasts has a clear benefit ...

Warren J. Tennant; Zoltan Toth; Kevin J. Rae

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

pricing. Although it is known that probabilistic forecasts (which give a distribution over possible futureLarge-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields Matt Wytock and J. Zico Kolter Abstract-- Short-term forecasting is a ubiquitous practice

Kolter, J. Zico

115

The Association Forecasting of 13 Variants Within Seven Asthma Susceptibility Genes on 3 Serum IgE Groups in Taiwanese Population by Integrating of Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Classification Analysis Methods  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Asthma is one of the most common chronic diseases in children. It is caused by complicated coactions between various genetic factors and environmental allergens. The study aims to integrate the concept of implementing adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system ... Keywords: Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), Classify analysis, Fuzzy logic, Pediatric asthma, SNPs

Cheng-Hang Wang; Baw-Jhiune Liu; Lawrence Shih-Hsin Wu

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

116

Forecasting Cloud Cover and Atmospheric Seeing for Astronomical Observing: Application and Evaluation of the Global Forecast System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To explore the issue of performing a non-interactive numerical weather forecast with an operational global model in assist of astronomical observing, we use the Xu-Randall cloud scheme and the Trinquet-Vernin AXP seeing model with the global numerical output from the Global Forecast System to generate 3-72h forecasts for cloud coverage and atmospheric seeing, and compare them with sequence observations from 9 sites from different regions of the world with different climatic background in the period of January 2008 to December 2009. The evaluation shows that the proportion of prefect forecast of cloud cover forecast varies from ~50% to ~85%. The probability of cloud detection is estimated to be around ~30% to ~90%, while the false alarm rate is generally moderate and is much lower than the probability of detection in most cases. The seeing forecast has a moderate mean difference (absolute mean difference <0.3" in most cases) and root-mean-square-error or RMSE (0.2"-0.4" in most cases) comparing with the obs...

Ye, Q -z

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

Characterization and Impact of Extreme Forecast Errors on Power Systems  

SciTech Connect

Extreme events in the electrical power system, caused by the load and wind forecasting errors, can impact the power system infrastructure via two main avenues. The first avenue is a sudden and significant power unbalance exceeding reasonable operating reserve capacity. The second is a sudden increase of power flows on the system critical paths causing transmission violations. The challenge in managing these system unbalances is more significant for a standalone balancing area operation. The consolidation of balancing authorities into a single balancing area can offset the operating reserve problem but this strategy enhances incremental power flows on the transmission interfaces, potentially leading to more unpredictable transmission congestion. This paper evaluates the expectancy of occurrence of tail events due to forecast error extremes using California ISO and BPA data. Having this type of information, independent system operators and operating utilities could be better prepared to address the tail events by exploring alternative reserve options such as: wide area control coordination, new operating proce-dures and remedial actions.

Heydt, Gerald T.; Vittal, Vijay; Malhara, Sunita V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Zhou, Ning; Etingov, Pavel V.

2011-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

118

Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

2010-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

119

FUTURA: Hybrid System for Electric Load Forecasting by Using Case-Based Reasoning and Expert System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of combining a numeric extrapolation of data with the methodology of case-based reasoning and expert systems in order to improve the electric load forecasting are presented in this contribution. Registers of power consumption are stored as ...

Raúl Vilcahuamán; Joaquim Meléndez; Josep Lluis de la Rosa

2002-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

120

Factors Influencing Skill Improvements in the ECMWF Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the past 30 years the skill in ECMWF numerical forecasts has steadily improved. There are three major contributing factors: 1) improvements in the forecast model, 2) improvements in the data assimilation, and 3) the increased number of ...

Linus Magnusson; Erland Källén

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Integration of Climate and Weather Information for Improving 15-Day-Ahead Accumulated Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skillful medium-range weather forecasts are critical for water resources planning and management. This study aims to improve 15-day-ahead accumulated precipitation forecasts by combining biweekly weather and disaggregated climate forecasts. A ...

Hui Wang; A. Sankarasubramanian; Ranji S. Ranjithan

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

122

Integrated Micro Nano Systems Integrated Micro Nano Systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

#12;Integrated Micro Nano Systems 2 #12;Integrated Micro Nano Systems 3 Val Jones (Ed.) Symposium on Integrated Micro Nano Systems: Convergence of bio and nanotechnologies, Enschede, The Netherlands, June 2006 Micro Nano Systems 4 #12;Integrated Micro Nano Systems 5 Preface In order to explore the convergence

Al Hanbali, Ahmad

123

Integrating Management Systems  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Mission Execution by Mission Execution by Integrating our Management Systems Integrating our Management Systems 1 W e e k l y O p e r a t i o n s M e e t i n g N o v e m b e r 1 , 2 0 1 1 M i c h a e l J . W e i s Pulling the Pieces Together for Improving DOE Management to Enable Mission Execution 2  Process changes Process changes  Behavioral changes Behavioral changes  System changes System changes Process Change Approach Strengthening and Expediting Decision Making 3 Proposed Outcomes Horizontal Integration Incoming DOE Business Crosscutting Issues (i.e. NLDC input) Hi-level Roadblocks Operations Management Council Associate Deputy Secretary Collaborative Action Process Chief Operating Officer Weekly Operations Council (OMC) Super 8 Secretary (ADS) (CAP) Board (COOB) p Meeting Endorsement / Commitment Super 8 US Meetings COO Meetings

124

On Quantum Integrable Systems  

SciTech Connect

Many quantum integrable systems are obtained using an accelerator physics technique known as Ermakov (or normalized variables) transformation. This technique was used to create classical nonlinear integrable lattices for accelerators and nonlinear integrable plasma traps. Now, all classical results are carried over to a nonrelativistic quantum case. In this paper we have described an extension of the Ermakov-like transformation to the Schroedinger and Pauli equations. It is shown that these newly found transformations create a vast variety of time dependent quantum equations that can be solved in analytic functions, or, at least, can be reduced to time-independent ones.

Danilov, Viatcheslav; /Oak Ridge; Nagaitsev, Sergei; /Fermilab

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

125

Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

2011-06-23T23:59:59.000Z

126

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - Webmaster  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Your name: Your email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Energy Systems Integration Home Research & Development Energy Systems Integration Facility Working...

127

Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing, Phase 1: Initial Testing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report describes initial results from the Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Project at a 75-MW wind project in west Texas.

2003-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

128

A Drought Monitoring and Forecasting System for Sub-Sahara African Water Resources and Food Security.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Capsule: The development and implementation of a drought monitoring and seasonal hydrological forecast system for sub-Saharan Africa contributes to building capacity through technology and knowledge transfer.

Justin Sheffield; Eric F. Wood; Nathaniel Chaney; Kaiyu Guan; Sara Sadri; Xing Yuan; Luke Olang; Abou Amani; Abdou Ali; Siegfried Demuth; Laban Ogallo

129

The Stratospheric Extension of the Canadian Global Deterministic Medium-Range Weather Forecasting System and Its Impact on Tropospheric Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new system that resolves the stratosphere was implemented for operational medium-range weather forecasts at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. The model lid was raised from 10 to 0.1 hPa, parameterization schemes for nonorographic gravity wave ...

Martin Charron; Saroja Polavarapu; Mark Buehner; P. A. Vaillancourt; Cécilien Charette; Michel Roch; Josée Morneau; Louis Garand; Josep M. Aparicio; Stephen MacPherson; Simon Pellerin; Judy St-James; Sylvain Heilliette

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

130

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia. From October 2013 new and improved 7 day forecasts will be introduced for Brisbane, Gold Coast

Greenslade, Diana

131

Integrated system design report  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The primary objective of the integrated system test phase is to demonstrate the commercial potential of a coal fueled diesel engine in its actual operating environment. The integrated system in this project is defined as a coal fueled diesel locomotive. This locomotive, shown on drawing 41D715542, is described in the separate Concept Design Report. The test locomotive will be converted from an existing oil fueled diesel locomotive in three stages, until it nearly emulates the concept locomotive. Design drawings of locomotive components (diesel engine, locomotive, flatcar, etc.) are included.

Not Available

1989-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

132

California Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing, Phase 1: Initial Testing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Wind energy forecasting uses sophisticated numerical weather forecasting and wind plant power generation models to predict the hourly energy generation of a wind power plant up to 48 hours in advance. As a result, it has great potential to address the needs of the California Independent System Operator (ISO) and the wind plant operators, as well as power marketers and buyers and utility system dispatch personnel. This report gives the results of 28 days of testing of wind energy forecasting at a Californ...

2003-01-31T23:59:59.000Z

133

Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing: Phase 2: 12-Month Testing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Wind energy forecasting systems are expected to support system operation in cases where wind generation contributes more than a few percent of total generating capacity. This report presents final results from the Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Project at a 75-MW wind project in west Texas.

2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

134

Combining artificial neural networks and heuristic rules in a hybrid intelligent load forecast system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this work, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is combined to Heuristic Rules producing a powerful hybrid intelligent system for short and mid-term electric load forecasting. The Heuristic Rules are used to adjust the ANN output to improve the system ... Keywords: artificial neural networks, electric load forecast, heuristic rules, hybrid system

Ronaldo R. B. de Aquino; Aida A. Ferreira; Manoel A. Carvalho, Jr.; Milde M. S. Lira; Geane B. Silva; Otoni Nóbrega Neto

2006-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

135

Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

2010-04-20T23:59:59.000Z

136

Modular Integrated Energy Systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Honeywell's data collection activity for the integrated energy system (or CHP -- Cooling, Heat and Power recovery steam generator, and a waste heat fired absorption chiller. The key goals of the project are having on-line optimization, · Develop a 1000 Ton exhaust-driven absorption chiller, · Install

Oak Ridge National Laboratory

137

Hamiltonian systems and symplectic integrators  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Keywords: Hamiltonian systems, Runge-Kutta type methods, conservation of energy, symplectic integrators, symplectic stability

Peter Görtz; Rudolf Scherer

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

138

Forecasting overview  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand; scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Forecasts can be required several years in advance (for the case of capital investments), or only a few minutes beforehand (for telecommunication routing). Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. Some things are easier to forecast than others. The time of the sunrise tomorrow morning can be forecast very precisely. On the other hand, currency exchange rates are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The predictability of an event or a quantity depends on how well we understand the factors that contribute to it, and how much unexplained variability is involved. Forecasting situations vary widely in their time horizons, factors determining actual outcomes, types of data patterns, and many other aspects. Forecasting methods can be very simple such as using the most recent observation as a forecast (which is called the “naïve method”), or highly complex such as neural nets and econometric systems of simultaneous equations. The

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

139

The complex fuzzy system forecasting model based on triangular fuzzy robust wavelet ?-support vector machine  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents a new version of fuzzy wavelet support vector regression machine to forecast the nonlinear fuzzy system with multi-dimensional input variables. The input and output variables of the proposed model are described as triangular fuzzy ... Keywords: Fuzzy ?-support vector machine, Fuzzy system forecasting, Particle swarm optimization, Wavelet kernel function

Qi Wu

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

140

The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System. Part I: Project Description and Early Outcomes  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System (AAQFS) is the culmination of a 3-yr project to develop a numerical primitive equation system for generating high-resolution (1–5 km) short-term (24–36 h) forecasts for the Australian coastal cities ...

M. E. Cope; G. D. Hess; S. Lee; K. Tory; M. Azzi; J. Carras; W. Lilley; P. C. Manins; P. Nelson; L. Ng; K. Puri; N. Wong; S. Walsh; M. Young

2004-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

The Land Surface Analysis in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) uses the NASA Land Information System (LIS) to create its land surface analysis: the NCEP Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Comparing to the previous two generations of NCEP global ...

Jesse Meng; Rongqian Yang; Helin Wei; Michael Ek; George Gayno; Pingping Xie; Kenneth Mitchell

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

142

Ensemble Precipitation and Water-Level Forecasts for Anticipatory Water-System Control  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method is presented for testing weather forecast products for applications in anticipatory water-system control. The applicability of the ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the ECMWF is tested for flood control in a regional water system in ...

Schalk Jan van Andel; Roland K. Price; Arnold H. Lobbrecht; Frans van Kruiningen; Robert Mureau

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

143

Dynamical Initialization for the Numerical Forecasting of Ocean Surface Circulations Using a Variational Assimilation System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A variational data assimilation system is presented for the initialization of an ocean surface circulation forecast system. The authors’ variational data assimilation system is designed to satisfy both statistical and dynamical constraints. As is ...

Yoichi Ishikawa; Toshiyuki Awaji; Nobumasa Komori

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

144

A Real-Time Eulerian Photochemical Model Forecast System: Overview and Initial Ozone Forecast Performance in the Northeast U.S. Corridor  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This article reports on the first implementation of a real-time Eulerian photochemical model forecast system in the United States. The forecast system consists of a tripartite set of one-way coupled models that run routinely on a parallel ...

John N. McHenry; William F. Ryan; Nelson L. Seaman; Carlie J. Coats Jr; Janusz Pudykiewicz; Sarav Arunachalam; Jeffery M. Vukovich

2004-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

Forecasting 65+ travel : an integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Over the next 30 years, the Boomers will double the 65+ population in the United States and comprise a new generation of older Americans. This study forecasts the aging Boomers' travel. Previous efforts to forecast 65+ ...

Bush, Sarah, 1973-

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

Forecast Verification of the Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) Sea Ice Concentration Fields  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Ice Center relies upon a coupled ice–ocean model called the Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) to provide guidance for its 24–120-h sea ice forecasts. Here forecast skill assessments of the sea ice concentration (C) fields from PIPS ...

Michael L. Van Woert; Cheng-Zhi Zou; Walter N. Meier; Philip D. Hovey; Ruth H. Preller; Pamela G. Posey

2004-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

147

Improved forecasting of time series data of real system using genetic programming  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A study is made to improve short term forecasting of time series data of real system using Genetic Programming (GP) under the framework of time delayed embedding technique. GP based approach is used to make analytical model of time series data of real ... Keywords: genetic programming, state-space reconstruction, time series forecasting

Dilip P. Ahalpara

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

A Displacement-Based Error Measure Applied in a Regional Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Errors in regional forecasts often take the form of phase errors, where a forecasted weather system is displaced in space or time. For such errors, a direct measure of the displacement is likely to be more valuable than traditional measures. A ...

Christian Keil; George C. Craig

2007-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

Nettuno: Analysis of a Wind and Wave Forecast System in the Mediterranean Sea  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Nettuno is a wind and wave forecast system in the Mediterranean Sea. It has been operational since 2009 producing twice a day high resolution forecasts for the next 72 hours. We have carried out a detailed analysis of the results, both in space ...

Luciana Bertotti; Luigi Cavaleri; Layla Loffredo; Lucio Torrisi

150

The Description of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System's Spectral Forecast Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We present a description of the development of the spectral forecast components of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). The original system, called 3.0, was introduced in January 1988. New versions were introduced ...

Timothy F. Hogan; Thomas E. Rosmond

1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

The Regional Analysis and Forecast System of the National Meteorological Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The three components of the Regional Analysis and Forecast System (RAFS) of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) are described. This system was implemented in March 1985 to supplement guidance from NMC's limited-area fine-mesh model (LFM), ...

James E. Hoke; Norman A. Phillips; Geoffrey J. Dimego; James J. Tuccillo; Joseph G. Sela

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

152

The GloSea4 Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasting systems, and related systems for decadal prediction, are crucial in the development of adaptation strategies to climate change. However, despite important achievements in this area in the last 10 years, significant levels of ...

Alberto Arribas; M. Glover; A. Maidens; K. Peterson; M. Gordon; C. MacLachlan; R. Graham; D. Fereday; J. Camp; A. A. Scaife; P. Xavier; P. McLean; A. Colman; S. Cusack

2011-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

The Development and Verification of TIPS: An Expert System to Forecast Thunderstorm Occurrence  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A rule-based expert system has been developed to assist military weather forecasters in the prediction of thunderstorms. The knowledge base used by the Thunderstorm Intelligence Prediction System (TIPS) was built by using meteorological ...

Robert R. Lee; Jeffrey E. Passner

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

Toward a Combined Seasonal Weather and Crop Productivity Forecasting System: Determination of the Working Spatial Scale  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A methodology is presented for the development of a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system. The first stage of the methodology is the determination of the spatial scale(s) on which the system could operate; this ...

A. J. Challinor; J. M. Slingo; T. R. Wheeler; P. Q. Craufurd; D. I. F. Grimes

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

Forecasting the Maintenance of Mesoscale Convective Systems Crossing the Appalachian Mountains  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting the maintenance of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is a unique problem in the eastern United States due to the influence of the Appalachian Mountains. At times these systems are able to traverse the terrain and produce severe ...

Casey E. Letkewicz; Matthew D. Parker

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

156

HYBRID GREY RELATIONAL ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK AND AUTO REGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE MODEL FOR FORECASTING TIME-SERIES DATA  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The aim of this study is to develop a new hybrid model by combining a linear and nonlinear model for forecasting time-series data. The proposed model (GRANN_ARIMA) integrates nonlinear grey relational artificial neural network (GRANN) and a linear autoregressive ...

Roselina Sallehuddin; Siti Mariyam Hj. Shamsuddin

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

Systems Integration Methodology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A multi-disciplinary team led by the Advanced Power and Energy Program (APEP) of the University of California at Irvine is defining the system engineering issues associated with the integration of key components and subsystems into power plant systems that meet performance and emission goals of VISION 21. The myriad of fuels, fuel processing, power generation, and emission control technologies are narrowed down to selected scenarios by a screening analysis to identify those combinations that have the potential to achieve the VISION 21 goals consisting of 60% efficiency (HHV) for coal based systems and 75% efficiency (LHV) for gas-based systems. The selected promising cycle scenarios are then analyzed in detail to develop the performance and costs for each. The methodology used in arriving at these promising cases and the preliminary results of the cycle analyses are presented. The technology levels considered are based on projected technical and manufacturing advances being made in industry and on advances identified in current and future government supported research such as the Clean Coal Program, Combustion 2000 (LEBS and HIPPS), Advanced Turbine Systems program, Low-Cost Advanced Fuel Cell programs, and the Flexible Gas Turbine Systems program. Examples of systems included in these advanced cycles are solid oxide and molten carbonate fuel cells, advanced gas turbines, ion transport membrane separation and hydrogen-oxygen combustion.

Samuelsen, Scott; Rao, Ashok

2001-11-06T23:59:59.000Z

158

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - Energy Systems Integration...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

and concentrating solar systems are tested. There is an emphasis on measurement of parabolic trough mirror panels. For detailed laboratory specifications, download the Optical...

159

Land–Atmosphere Coupling Strength in the Global Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The operational coupled land–atmosphere forecast model from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is evaluated for the strength and characteristics of its coupling in the water cycle between land and atmosphere. Following the ...

Li Zhang; Paul A. Dirmeyer; Jiangfeng Wei; Zhichang Guo; Cheng-Hsuan Lu

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

A Forecasting/Nowcasting System for Remote Field Locations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Vast quantities of frequently updated weather data for both forecasting and nowcasting are generally required in meteorological field programs. The continuing synthesis of this data to suit specific operations is best accomplished using ...

Harry T. Ochs III; Stanley Q. Kidder

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Comparing Probabilistic Forecasting Systems with the Brier Score  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This article considers the Brier score for verifying ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts of binary events. New estimators for the effect of ensemble size on the expected Brier score, and associated confidence intervals, are proposed. An ...

Christopher A. T. Ferro

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

162

TEACHMET: An Expert System for Teaching Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Students or weather forecasting need to learn to identify efficiently the information relevant to the elements they predict. One way students learn these skills is by engaging in discussions of interesting weather situations as they occur. In ...

Nathan M. Reiss; James C. Hofmann

1988-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

Evolutionary Optimization of an Ice Accretion Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The ability to model and forecast accretion of ice on structures is very important for many industrial sectors. For example, studies conducted by the power transmission industry indicate that the majority of failures are caused by icing on ...

Pawel Pytlak; Petr Musilek; Edward Lozowski; Dan Arnold

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

METEOR: An Artificial Intelligence System for Convective Storm Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An experienced forecaster can use several different types of knowledge in forcing. First, there is his theoretical understanding of meteorology, which is well entrenched in current numerical models. A second type is his “local knowledge,” gained ...

Renée Elio; Johannes De Haan; G. S. Strong

1987-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

165

Prediction Skill and Bias of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The prediction skill and bias of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in the retrospective forecasts of the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction were examined. The CFSv2 was ...

Yan Xue; Mingyue Chen; Arun Kumar; Zeng-Zhen Hu; Wanqiu Wang

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

166

Tropical Cyclone Formations over the Western North Pacific in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A set of criteria is developed to identify tropical cyclone (TC) formations in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) analyses and forecast fields. Then the NOGAPS forecasts of TC formations from 1997 to 1999 are ...

Kevin K. W. Cheung; Russell L. Elsberry

2002-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

The Impact of Advanced Nowcasting Systems on Severe Weather Warning during the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project: 3 November 2000  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One of the principal aims of the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project was to assess the utility of advanced nowcasting systems to operational severe weather forecasters. This paper describes the application of the products of a variety of ...

Neil I. Fox; Rob Webb; John Bally; Michael W. Sleigh; Clive E. Pierce; David M. L. Sills; Paul I. Joe; James Wilson; Chris G. Collier

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

168

Forecasting distribution system loads using curve shape clustering  

SciTech Connect

Trending using curve fitting to past small area load growth is an economical but not highly accurate method of forecasting loads for distribution planning. A new trending method uses clustering of historical load at the small area level as the forecast algorithm. This new method has significant performance advantages over normal curve fit methods and can be implemented in 16 bit integer arithmetic on most computers. The method and test results are discussed in detail.

Willis, H.L.; Northcote-Green, J.E.D.; Schauer, A.E.; Vismor, T.D.

1983-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

On-line economic optimization of energy systems using weather forecast information.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit weather forecast information in the operation of energy systems. We argue that anticipating the weather conditions can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The framework is based on the solution of a stochastic dynamic real-time optimization (D-RTO) problem incorporating forecasts generated from a state-of-the-art weather prediction model. The necessary uncertainty information is extracted from the weather model using an ensemble approach. The accuracy of the forecast trends and uncertainty bounds are validated using real meteorological data. We present a numerical simulation study in a building system to demonstrate the developments.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

170

Integrated fluorescence analysis system  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

An integrated fluorescence analysis system enables a component part of a sample to be virtually sorted within a sample volume after a spectrum of the component part has been identified from a fluorescence spectrum of the entire sample in a flow cytometer. Birefringent optics enables the entire spectrum to be resolved into a set of numbers representing the intensity of spectral components of the spectrum. One or more spectral components are selected to program a scanning laser microscope, preferably a confocal microscope, whereby the spectrum from individual pixels or voxels in the sample can be compared. Individual pixels or voxels containing the selected spectral components are identified and an image may be formed to show the morphology of the sample with respect to only those components having the selected spectral components. There is no need for any physical sorting of the sample components to obtain the morphological information.

Buican, Tudor N. (Los Alamos, NM); Yoshida, Thomas M. (Los Alamos, NM)

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

Advanced Integrated Traction System  

SciTech Connect

The United States Department of Energy elaborates the compelling need for a commercialized competitively priced electric traction drive system to proliferate the acceptance of HEVs, PHEVs, and FCVs in the market. The desired end result is a technically and commercially verified integrated ETS (Electric Traction System) product design that can be manufactured and distributed through a broad network of competitive suppliers to all auto manufacturers. The objectives of this FCVT program are to develop advanced technologies for an integrated ETS capable of 55kW peak power for 18 seconds and 30kW of continuous power. Additionally, to accommodate a variety of automotive platforms the ETS design should be scalable to 120kW peak power for 18 seconds and 65kW of continuous power. The ETS (exclusive of the DC/DC Converter) is to cost no more than $660 (55kW at $12/kW) to produce in quantities of 100,000 units per year, should have a total weight less than 46kg, and have a volume less than 16 liters. The cost target for the optional Bi-Directional DC/DC Converter is $375. The goal is to achieve these targets with the use of engine coolant at a nominal temperature of 105C. The system efficiency should exceed 90% at 20% of rated torque over 10% to 100% of maximum speed. The nominal operating system voltage is to be 325V, with consideration for higher voltages. This project investigated a wide range of technologies, including ETS topologies, components, and interconnects. Each technology and its validity for automotive use were verified and then these technologies were integrated into a high temperature ETS design that would support a wide variety of applications (fuel cell, hybrids, electrics, and plug-ins). This ETS met all the DOE 2010 objectives of cost, weight, volume and efficiency, and the specific power and power density 2015 objectives. Additionally a bi-directional converter was developed that provides charging and electric power take-off which is the first step towards enabling a smart-grid application. GM under this work assessed 29 technologies; investigated 36 configurations/types power electronics and electric machines, filed 41 invention disclosures; and ensured technology compatibility with vehicle production. Besides the development of a high temperature ETS the development of industrial suppliers took place because of this project. Suppliers of industrial power electronic components are numerous, but there are few that have traction drive knowledge. This makes it difficult to achieve component reliability, durability, and cost requirements necessary of high volume automotive production. The commercialization of electric traction systems for automotive industry requires a strong diverse supplier base. Developing this supplier base is dependent on a close working relationship between the OEM and supplier so that appropriate component requirements can be developed. GM has worked closely with suppliers to develop components for electric traction systems. Components that have been the focus of this project are power modules, capacitors, heavy copper boards, current sensors, and gate drive and controller chip sets. Working with suppliers, detailed component specifications have been developed. Current, voltage, and operation environment during the vehicle drive cycle were evaluated to develop higher resolution/accurate component specifications.

Greg Smith; Charles Gough

2011-08-31T23:59:59.000Z

172

Evaluation of the NCEP Global Forecast System at the ARM SGP Site  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study evaluates the performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (GFS) against observations made by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program at the southern ...

Fanglin Yang; Hua-Lu Pan; Steven K. Krueger; Shrinivas Moorthi; Stephen J. Lord

2006-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

Simulations and Seasonal Prediction of the Asian Summer Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Analysis of the retrospective ensemble predictions (hindcasts) of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) indicates that the model successfully simulates many major features of the Asian summer monsoon including the climatology and interannual ...

Song Yang; Zuqiang Zhang; Vernon E. Kousky; R. Wayne Higgins; Soo-Hyun Yoo; Jianyin Liang; Yun Fan

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

Modeling the Distribution of Precipitation Forecasts from the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System Using Kernel Density Estimation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Kernel density estimation is employed to fit smooth probabilistic models to precipitation forecasts of the Canadian ensemble prediction system. An intuitive nonparametric technique, kernel density estimation has become a powerful tool widely used ...

Syd Peel; Laurence J. Wilson

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

175

Sensitivity of Forecast Rainfall in a Texas Convective System to Soil Moisture and Convective Parameterization  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The impact of soil moisture on the forecast of a small-scale convective system, and sensitivity of results to the convective parameterization used, are investigated through Eta Model simulations (run in an operational-like setting) of a ...

William A. Gallus Jr.; Moti Segal

2000-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

176

Model Bias in a Continuously Cycled Assimilation System and Its Influence on Convection-Permitting Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the spring 2011 season, a real-time continuously cycled ensemble data assimilation system using the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed toolkit ...

Glen S. Romine; Craig S. Schwartz; Chris Snyder; Jeff L. Anderson; Morris L. Weisman

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

177

A Computational Web Portal for the Distributed Marine Environment Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes a prototype computational Web Portal for the Distributed Marine Environment Forecast System (DMEFS). DMEFS is a research framework to develop and operate validated Climate-Weather-Ocean models. The DMEFS portal is implemented as ...

Tomasz Haupt; Purushotham Bangalore; Gregory Henley

2001-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

178

Assessment of the Aviation Weather Center Global Forecasts of Mesoscale Convective Systems*  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper examines the precision of location and top height of mesoscale convective systems, as forecast by the Aviation Weather Center (AWC). The examination was motivated by the Mediterranean Israeli Dust Experiment (MEIDEX) on the space ...

Baruch Ziv; Yoav Yair; Karin Presman; Martin Füllekrug

2004-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

179

Characteristics of Subsurface Ocean Response to ENSO Assessed from Simulations with the NCEP Climate Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The subsurface ocean temperature response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is examined based on 31-yr (1981–2011) simulations with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) coupled model. The ...

Hui Wang; Arun Kumar; Wanqiu Wang

180

Using Precipitation Observations in a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Analysis and Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple method to assimilate precipitation data from a synthesis of radar and gauge data is developed to operate alongside an ensemble Kalman filter that assimilates hourly surface observations. The mesoscale ensemble forecast system consists of ...

Tadashi Fujita; David J. Stensrud; David C. Dowell

2008-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Test of a Poor Man’s Ensemble Prediction System for Short-Range Probability Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Current operational ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) are designed specifically for medium-range forecasting, but there is also considerable interest in predictability in the short range, particularly for potential severe-weather developments. A ...

A. Arribas; K. B. Robertson; K. R. Mylne

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

182

A Strategy for Verification of Weather Element Forecasts from an Ensemble Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using a Bayesian context, new measures of accuracy and skill are proposed to verify weather element forecasts from ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) with respect to individual observations. The new scores are in the form of probabilities of ...

Laurence J. Wilson; William R. Burrows; Andreas Lanzinger

1999-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

183

Fuel Cell Technologies Office: Systems Integration  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Systems Integration to someone by E-mail Share Fuel Cell Technologies Office: Systems Integration on Facebook Tweet about Fuel Cell Technologies Office: Systems Integration on...

184

HLW System Integrated Project Team  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

l l W S Hi h l W S High Level Waste System High Level Waste System Integrated Project Team Integrated Project Team Integrated Project Team Integrated Project Team Steve Schneider Steve Schneider Office of Engineering and Technology High Level Waste Corporate Board March 5, 2009 This document is intended for planning and analysis purposes, assuming a continuing constrained budget environment. Every effort will be made to comply with all applicable environmental and legal obligations, while also assuring that essential functions necessary to protect human health, the environment and national security are maintained. 1 Introduction Introduction Introduction Introduction Challenges and Priorities High Level Waste Strategic Initiative Results High Level Waste System Integrated

185

Linking the Eta Model with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System to Build a National Air Quality Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

NOAA and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have developed a national air quality forecasting (AQF) system that is based on numerical models for meteorology, emissions, and chemistry. The AQF system generates gridded model forecasts ...

Tanya L. Otte; George Pouliot; Jonathan E. Pleim; Jeffrey O. Young; Kenneth L. Schere; David C. Wong; Pius C. S. Lee; Marina Tsidulko; Jeffery T. McQueen; Paula Davidson; Rohit Mathur; Hui-Ya Chuang; Geoff DiMego; Nelson L. Seaman

2005-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

Strategies and Decision Support Systems for Integrating Variable...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

understanding of the operational impacts of wind integration and how wind power forecast is being used today. The identified practices from a broad group of utilities can be...

187

Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

Das, S.

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

Integrated Transportation System Design Optimization  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Integrated Transportation System Design Optimization by Christine Taylor B.S. Cornell University by . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Professor Jaime Peraire Chairman, Department Graduate Committee #12;2 #12;Integrated Transportation System Abstract Traditionally, the design of a transportation system has focused on either the vehicle design

189

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - Events  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Events NREL hosts events that promote understanding and collaboration on energy systems integration. Through seminars, workshops, and other educational opportunities, industry...

190

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - News  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

News Energy Systems Integration eNewsletter is a quarterly newsletter designed to keep industry partners, stakeholders, associations, and educational institutes up to date on the...

191

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - Workshops  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) workshops. October 2012: Increasing the Value of Microgrids through Focused RD&D Information included an overview of commercial microgrids,...

192

Fuzzy rule-based methodology for residential load behaviour forecasting during power systems restoration  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Inadequate load pickup during power system restoration can lead to overload and underfrequency conditions, and even restart the blackout process, due to thermal energy losses. Thus, load behaviour estimation during restoration is desirable to avoid inadequate ... Keywords: artificial intelligence, energy management systems, fuzzy logic, load behaviour estimation, power system distribution, power system restoration, residential load forecasting, thermostatically controlled loads

Lia Toledo Moreira Mota; Alexandre Assis Mota; Andre Luiz Morelato Franca

2005-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

193

A System Dynamics Approach for Developing Zone Water Demand Forecasting: A Case Study of Linkong Area  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

System dynamics (SD) approach for developing zone water demand forecasting was developed based on the analysis of its water resources system which has multi-feedback and nonlinear interactions amongst system elements. As an example, Tianjin Binhai Linkong ... Keywords: developing zone, system dynamics, water resources demand, Linkong

Xuehua Zhang; Hongwei Zhang; Xinhua Zhao

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

194

Linear Diagnostics to Assess the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The performance of an ensemble prediction system is inherently flow dependent. This dissertation investigates the flow dependence of the ensemble performance with the help of linear diagnostics applied to the ensemble perturbations in a small local neighborhood of each model grid point location ?. A local error covariance matrix P? is defined for each local region and the diagnostics are applied to the linear space S? defined by the range of the ensemble based estimate of P?. The particular diagnostics are chosen to help investigate the ability of S? to efficiently capture the space of true forecast or analysis uncertainties, accurately predict the magnitude of forecast or analysis uncertainties, and to distinguish between the importance of different state space directions. Additionally, we aim to better understand the roots of the underestimation of the magnitude of uncertainty by the ensemble at longer forecast lead times. Numerical experiments are carried out with an implementation of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) data assimilation system on a reduced (T62L28) resolution version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS). Both simulated observations under the perfect model scenario and observations of the real atmosphere are used in these experiments. It is found that (i) paradoxically, the linear space S? provides an increasingly better estimate of the space of forecast uncertainties as the time evolution of the ensemble perturbations becomes more nonlinear with increasing forecast time, (ii) S? provides a more reliable linear representation of the space of forecast uncertainties for cases of more rapid error growth, (iii) the E-dimension is a reliable predictor of the performance of S? in predicting the space of forecast uncertainties, (iv) the ensemble grossly underestimates the forecast error variance in S?, (v) when realistic observation coverage is used, the ensemble typically overestimates the uncertainty in the leading eigen-directions of ˆP ? and underestimates the uncertainty in the trailing directions at analysis time and underestimates the uncertainty in all directions by the 120-hr forecast lead time, and (vi) at analysis time, with a constant covariance inflation factor, the ensemble typically underestimates uncertainty in densely observed regions and overestimates the uncertainty in sparsely observed regions.

Satterfield, Elizabeth A.

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

195

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts

196

Modular Integrated Energy Systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

system (or CHP -- Cooling, Heat and Power) system at Ft. Bragg. Much of this work is funded by the U consists of a gas turbine-generator, a heat recovery steam generator, and a waste heat fired absorption-driven absorption chiller, · Install and monitor the performance of a prototype IES modular system employing

Oak Ridge National Laboratory

197

A novel statistical time-series pattern based interval forecasting strategy for activity durations in workflow systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting workflow activity durations is of great importance to support satisfactory QoS in workflow systems. Traditionally, a workflow system is often designed to facilitate the process automation in a specific application domain where activities ... Keywords: Activity duration, Interval forecasting, Statistical time series, Time-series patterns, Workflow system

Xiao Liu; Zhiwei Ni; Dong Yuan; Yuanchun Jiang; Zhangjun Wu; Jinjun Chen; Yun Yang

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

198

Integrated Security System | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Integrated Security System Integrated Security System A security platform providing multi-layer intrusion detection and security management for a networked energy control systems...

199

NREL's Energy Systems Integration Facility  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

NREL's Energy Systems Integration Facility Speaker(s): Benjamin Kroposki Date: January 14, 2013 - 12:00pm Location: 90-1099 Seminar HostPoint of Contact: Sila Kiliccote The...

200

The Operational Implementation of a Great Lakes Wave Forecasting System at NOAA/NCEP  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The development of a Great Lakes wave forecasting system at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is described. The system is an implementation of the WAVEWATCH III model, forced with atmospheric data from NCEP’s regional WRF ...

Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves; Arun Chawla; Hendrik L. Tolman; David Schwab; Gregory Lang; Greg Mann

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Manufacturing Systems Integration News  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... NIST Cooperative Agreement with University of Maryland Supports Research on 21st Century Smart Systems Release Date: 10/13/2011 ...

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - Residential and Commercial...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Residential and Commercial Integration Energy systems integration R&D at the small-scale, residential and commercial integration level encompasses diverse technologies such as...

203

Modular Integrated Energy Systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

energy system (or CHP -- Cooling, Heat and Power) system at Ft. Bragg. Much of this work is funded fired absorption chiller. The key goals of the project are: · Develop a set of "reference" CAD-based IES a 1000 Ton exhaust-driven absorption chiller, · Install and monitor the performance of a prototype IES

Oak Ridge National Laboratory

204

Systems Engineering and Integration  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

The fuel cycle in use today in the United States faces challenges in achieving the goals of sustainability. While used fuel is safely stored at reactor sites, the development of a system to manage...

205

Advancing Energy Systems through Integration  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Advancing Energy Systems Advancing Energy Systems through Integration Presented in partnership with the United States Department of Energy November 20, 2012 Webinar Community Renewable Energy Success Stories: District Heating with Renewable Energy Saint Paul's Community Energy System * Underground network of pipes aggregate heating and cooling needs * Aggregated thermal loads allows application of technologies and fuels not feasible for individual buildings * Increases fuel flexibility, rate stability, and reliability Community Scale Heating and Cooling 4 ever-greenenergy.com Ever-Green Energy Integrated Energy System flexible & renewable fuel sources reliable and effective production & storage hot & chilled water loops maximize energy conservation & reliability

206

A Reduced Radiation Grid for the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A specific interface between the radiation transfer calculations and the rest of the ECMWF model was introduced in 2003, potentially providing substantial economy in computer time by reducing the spatial resolution at which radiation transfer is ...

Jean-Jacques Morcrette; George Mozdzynski; Martin Leutbecher

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

The Operational Mesogamma-Scale Analysis and Forecast System of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part III: Forecasting with Secondary-Applications Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Output from the Army Test and Evaluation Command’s Four-Dimensional Weather System’s mesoscale model is used to drive secondary-applications models to produce forecasts of quantities of importance for daily decision making at U.S. Army test ...

Robert D. Sharman; Yubao Liu; Rong-Shyang Sheu; Thomas T. Warner; Daran L. Rife; James F. Bowers; Charles A. Clough; Edward E. Ellison

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

208

Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy technology and electric power source (AWEA, 2004a). This renewable energy has demonstrated its readiness to become a more significant contributor to the electricity supply in the western U.S. and help ease the power shortage (AWEA, 2000). The practical exercise of this alternative energy supply also showed its function in stabilizing electricity prices and reducing the emissions of pollution and greenhouse gases from other natural gas-fired power plants. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the world's winds could theoretically supply the equivalent of 5800 quadrillion BTUs of energy each year, which is 15 times current world energy demand (AWEA, 2004b). Archer and Jacobson (2005) also reported an estimation of the global wind energy potential with the magnitude near half of DOE's quote. Wind energy has been widely used in Europe; it currently supplies 20% and 6% of Denmark's and Germany's electric power, respectively, while less than 1% of U.S. electricity is generated from wind (AWEA, 2004a). The production of wind energy in California ({approx}1.2% of total power) is slightly higher than the national average (CEC & EPRI, 2003). With the recently enacted Renewable Portfolio Standards calling for 20% of renewables in California's power generation mix by 2010, the growth of wind energy would become an important resource on the electricity network. Based on recent wind energy research (Roulston et al., 2003), accurate weather forecasting has been recognized as an important factor to further improve the wind energy forecast for effective power management. To this end, UC-Davis (UCD) and LLNL proposed a joint effort through the use of UCD's wind tunnel facility and LLNL's real-time weather forecasting capability to develop an improved regional wind energy forecasting system. The current effort of UC-Davis is aimed at developing a database of wind turbine power curves as a function of wind speed and direction, using its wind tunnel facility at the windmill farm at the Altamont Pass. The main objective of LLNL's involvement is to provide UC-Davis with improved wind forecasts to drive the parameterization scheme of turbine power curves developed from the wind tunnel facility. Another objective of LLNL's effort is to support the windmill farm operation with real-time wind forecasts for the effective energy management. The forecast skill in capturing the situation to meet the cut-in and cutout speed of given turbines would help reduce the operation cost in low and strong wind scenarios, respectively. The main focus of this report is to evaluate the wind forecast errors of LLNL's three-dimensional real-time weather forecast model at the location with the complex terrain. The assessment of weather forecast accuracy would help quantify the source of wind energy forecast errors from the atmospheric forecast model and/or wind-tunnel module for further improvement in the wind energy forecasting system.

Chin, H S

2005-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

209

Advanced Integrated Traction System  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Besides the development of a high temperature ETS the development of industrial suppliers took place because of this project. Suppliers of industrial power electronic components are numerous, but there are few that have traction drive knowledge. This makes it difficult to achieve component reliability, durability, and cost requirements necessary of high volume automotive production. The commercialization of electric traction systems for automotive industry requires a strong diverse supplier base. Developing this supplier base is dependent on a close working relationship between the OEM and supplier so that appropriate component requirements can be developed. GM has worked closely with suppliers to develop components for electric traction systems. Components that have been the focus of this project are power modules, capacitors, heavy copper boards, current sensors, and gate drive and controller chip sets. Working with suppliers, detailed component specifications have been developed. Current, voltage, and operation environment during the vehicle drive cycle were evaluated to develop higher resolution/accurate component specifications.

Greg Smith; Charles Gough

2011-08-31T23:59:59.000Z

210

Long range forecast of power demands on the Baltimore Gas and Electric Company system. Volume 1  

SciTech Connect

The report presents the results of an econometric forecast of peak and electric power demands for the Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BGandE) through the year 2003. The report describes the methodology, the results of the econometric estimations and associated summary statistics, the forecast assumptions, and the calculated forecasts of energy usage and peak demand. Separate models were estimated for summer and winter residential electricity usage in both Baltimore city and the non-city portion of the BGandE service area. Equations were also estimated for commercial energy usage, industrial usage, streetlighting, and for losses plus Company use. Non-econometric techniques were used to estimate future energy use by Bethlehem Steel Corporation's Sparrows Point plant in Baltimore County, Conrail, and the Baltimore Mass Transit Administration underground rail system. Models of peak demand for summer and winter were also estimated.

Estomin, S.L.; Kahal, M.I.

1985-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

211

Integrated Building Management System (IBMS)  

SciTech Connect

This project provides a combination of software and services that more easily and cost-effectively help to achieve optimized building performance and energy efficiency. Featuring an open-platform, cloud- hosted application suite and an intuitive user experience, this solution simplifies a traditionally very complex process by collecting data from disparate building systems and creating a single, integrated view of building and system performance. The Fault Detection and Diagnostics algorithms developed within the IBMS have been designed and tested as an integrated component of the control algorithms running the equipment being monitored. The algorithms identify the normal control behaviors of the equipment without interfering with the equipment control sequences. The algorithms also work without interfering with any cooperative control sequences operating between different pieces of equipment or building systems. In this manner the FDD algorithms create an integrated building management system.

Anita Lewis

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

Integration of Uncertainty Information into Power System Operations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Contemporary power systems face uncertainties coming from multiple sources, including forecast errors of load, wind and solar generation, uninstructed deviation and forced outage of traditional generators, loss of transmission lines, and others. With increasing amounts of wind and solar generation being integrated into the system, these uncertainties have been growing significantly. It is critical important to build knowledge of major sources of uncertainty, learn how to simulate them, and then incorporate this information into the decision-making processes and power system operations, for better reliability and efficiency. This paper gives a comprehensive view on the sources of uncertainty in power systems, important characteristics, available models, and ways of their integration into system operations. It is primarily based on previous works conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL).

Makarov, Yuri V.; Lu, Shuai; Samaan, Nader A.; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Hafen, Ryan P.; Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Ning

2011-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

213

A Nowcast/Forecast System for Coastal Ocean Circulation Using Simple Nudging Data Assimilation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study describes the establishment of a Nowcast/Forecast System for Coastal Ocean Circulation (NFS-COC), which was run operationally on a daily basis to provide users ocean surface currents and sea levels that vary with synoptic winds, and ...

Jia Wang

2001-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

Asian summer monsoon prediction in ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Asian summer monsoon prediction in ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecasts.com Abstract The seasonal prediction skill of the Asian summer monsoon is assessed using retrospective predic and the maritime continent. The southwest monsoon flow and the Somali Jet are stronger in SYS4, while the south

Webster, Peter J.

215

A forecasting system for car fuel consumption using a radial basis function neural network  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A predictive system for car fuel consumption using a radial basis function (RBF) neural network is proposed in this paper. The proposed work consists of three parts: information acquisition, fuel consumption forecasting algorithm and performance evaluation. ... Keywords: Artificial neural network, Car fuel consumption, Radial basis function algorithm

Jian-Da Wu; Jun-Ching Liu

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

216

Verification of the NOAA Smoke Forecasting System: Model Sensitivity to the Injection Height  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A detailed evaluation of NOAA’s Smoke Forecasting System (SFS) is a fundamental part of its development and further refinement. In this work, particulate matter with a diameter less than or equal to 2.5-?m (PM2.5) concentration levels, simulated ...

Ariel F. Stein; Glenn D. Rolph; Roland R. Draxler; Barbara Stunder; Mark Ruminski

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Energy Systems Integration | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Systems Integration Home > Energy Systems Integration > Posts by term Content Group Activity By term Q & A Feeds developer (1) ESI (1) Literature Review (5) Maintenance (1)...

218

IMPLEMENTATION OF INTEGRATED BUSINESS INFORMATION SYSTEMS WITHIN...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

IMPLEMENTATION OF INTEGRATED BUSINESS INFORMATION SYSTEMS WITHIN THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, DOEIG-0466 IMPLEMENTATION OF INTEGRATED BUSINESS INFORMATION SYSTEMS WITHIN THE...

219

Distributed Energy Systems Integration Group (Fact Sheet)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Factsheet developed to describe the activites of the Distributed Energy Systems Integration Group within NREL's Electricity, Resources, and Buildings Systems Integration center.

Not Available

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

220

Building Technologies Office: Integrated Building Management System  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Integrated Building Integrated Building Management System Research Project to someone by E-mail Share Building Technologies Office: Integrated Building Management System Research Project on Facebook Tweet about Building Technologies Office: Integrated Building Management System Research Project on Twitter Bookmark Building Technologies Office: Integrated Building Management System Research Project on Google Bookmark Building Technologies Office: Integrated Building Management System Research Project on Delicious Rank Building Technologies Office: Integrated Building Management System Research Project on Digg Find More places to share Building Technologies Office: Integrated Building Management System Research Project on AddThis.com... About Take Action to Save Energy Partner with DOE

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

SunShot Initiative: Systems Integration  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Systems Integration to someone by Systems Integration to someone by E-mail Share SunShot Initiative: Systems Integration on Facebook Tweet about SunShot Initiative: Systems Integration on Twitter Bookmark SunShot Initiative: Systems Integration on Google Bookmark SunShot Initiative: Systems Integration on Delicious Rank SunShot Initiative: Systems Integration on Digg Find More places to share SunShot Initiative: Systems Integration on AddThis.com... Concentrating Solar Power Photovoltaics Systems Integration Research, Development, & Demonstration Competitive Awards Balance of Systems Systems Integration High Penetration Solar Portal The High Penetration Solar Portal has timely information related to high penetration solar scenarios and integrating solar into the grid. The site allows utilities, grant awardees, regulators, researchers, and other solar

222

Explicitly integrating parameter, input, and structure uncertainties into Bayesian Neural Networks for probabilistic hydrologic forecasting  

SciTech Connect

Estimating uncertainty of hydrologic forecasting is valuable to water resources and other relevant decision making processes. Recently, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been proved powerful tools for quantifying uncertainty of streamflow forecasting. In this study, we propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework to incorporate the uncertainties associated with input, model structure, and parameter into BNNs. This framework allows the structure of the neural networks to change by removing or adding connections between neurons and enables scaling of input data by using rainfall multipliers. The results show that the new BNNs outperform the BNNs that only consider uncertainties associated with parameter and model structure. Critical evaluation of posterior distribution of neural network weights, number of effective connections, rainfall multipliers, and hyper-parameters show that the assumptions held in our BNNs are not well supported. Further understanding of characteristics of different uncertainty sources and including output error into the MCMC framework are expected to enhance the application of neural networks for uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasting.

Zhang, Xuesong; Liang, Faming; Yu, Beibei; Zong, Ziliang

2011-11-09T23:59:59.000Z

223

Load forecasting framework of electricity consumptions for an Intelligent Energy Management System in the user-side  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work presents an electricity consumption-forecasting framework configured automatically and based on an Adaptative Neural Network Inference System (ANFIS). This framework is aimed to be implemented in industrial plants, such as automotive factories, ... Keywords: ANFIS, Forecasting, Genetic algorithm, Intelligent EMS, Modelling

Juan J. Cárdenas; Luis Romeral; Antonio Garcia; Fabio Andrade

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

Application of a new hybrid neuro-evolutionary system for day-ahead price forecasting of electricity markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, a new forecast strategy is proposed for day-ahead prediction of electricity prices, which are so valuable for both producers and consumers in the new competitive electric power markets. However, electricity price has a nonlinear, volatile ... Keywords: Evolutionary algorithm, Hybrid neuro-evolutionary system, Neural network, Price forecast

Nima Amjady; Farshid Keynia

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

225

Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Zhao, Feng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

226

Rogers dilogarithm in integrable systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We dicuss some curious aspects of the Rogers dilogarithm and the functional relations in integrable systems in two dimensions. This is for the proceedings of the XX1 Differential Geometry Methods in Theoretical Physics, Tianjin, China, 5-9 June 1992.

Kuniba, A

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

227

National Integrated Drought Information System | Data.gov  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

System Dataset Summary Description The tool provides access to US drought data, forecasts, and information from across federal and state agencies, tribes, universities, and...

228

New and Underutilized Technology: Integrated Daylighting Systems |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Integrated Daylighting Systems Integrated Daylighting Systems New and Underutilized Technology: Integrated Daylighting Systems October 4, 2013 - 4:56pm Addthis The following information outlines key deployment considerations for integrated daylighting systems within the Federal sector. Benefits Integrated daylighting systems can be combined with electronic dimmable fluorescent ballasts, photo sensors, and occupancy sensors where appropriate. Network components, workstation controls, and building management options can also be integrated to provide significant savings on applied systems. Application Integrated daylighting systems are applicable in perimeter and interior spaces with daylight exposure via windows and skylights. Key Factors for Deployment Acceptable levels of daylight are required and must be factored into

229

FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast volume summary - Volume 1 and Volume 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Solid waste forecast volumes to be generated or received ;at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste program over the life cycle of the site are described in this report. Previous forecast summary reports have covered only a 30-year period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted for this FY 1996 report to ensure consistency with waste volumes reported in the 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans (MYPP). The volume data were collected on a life-cycle basis from onsite and offsite waste generators who currently ship or plan to ship solid waste to the Solid Waste program. The volumes described in detail are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic-mixed (TRU(M)) waste. The volumes reported in this document represent the external volume of the containers selected to ship the waste. Summary level information pertaining to low-level waste (LLW) is described in Appendix B. Hazardous waste volumes are also provided in Appendices E and F but are not described in detail since they will be managed by a commercial facility. Emphasis is placed on LLMW and TRU(M) waste because it will require processing and storage at Hanford Solid Waste`s Central Waste Complex (CORK) prior to final disposal. The LLW will generally be sent directly to disposal. The total baselines volume of LLMW and TRU(M) waste forecast to be received by the Solid Waste program (until 2070) is approximately 100,900 cubic meters. This total waste volume is composed of the following waste categories: 077,080 cubic meters of LLMW; 23,180 cubic meters of TRU(M); 640 cubic meters of greater-than-class III LLMW. This total is about 40% of the total volume reported last year (FY 1995).

Valero, O.J.

1996-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

230

DOE Transmission System Integration Workshop  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Heyeck, AEP, Sr. Vice President, Transmission Heyeck, AEP, Sr. Vice President, Transmission and Chair, EPRI Power Delivery & Utilization Sector Council November 01-02, 2012 DoubleTree Hotel, Crystal City Washington D.C. DOE Transmission System Integration Workshop 2 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Near-Zero Emissions Long-Term Operations Renewable Integration Water Management Electric Vehicles Demand Response & Efficiency Renewable Energy Energy Storage Sensors & Control Cyber Security Supply = Demand The Power System Supply to Demand Requires a full portfolio of innovative technologies. Tomorrow's Power System One size does not fit all 3 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Grid Transformation to Ensure Reliability, Efficiency, Resiliency and Security

231

Real-Time Multimodel Superensemble Forecasts of Atlantic Tropical Systems of 1999  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, Atlantic hurricane forecasts for the year 1999 are addressed. The methodology for these forecasts is called the multimodel superensemble. This statistical method makes use of the real-time forecasts provided by a number of ...

C. Eric Williford; T. N. Krishnamurti; Ricardo Correa Torres; Steven Cocke; Zaphiris Christidis; T. S. Vijaya Kumar

2003-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

232

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

on the fluctuating wind and solar resources an indispensable necessity. Any efficient imple- mentation of wind-alone photovoltaic or wind energy systems, control systems in buildings, control of solar thermal power plants time constants. For example, an operation of a PV-diesel system needs information in the very short

Heinemann, Detlev

233

Application of a Limited-Area Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System to a Case of Heavy Rainfall in the Mediterranean Region  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Severe weather risk assessment is becoming an increasing component of the daily operational activity at advanced meteorological forecasting centers. To improve its forecast capabilities and develop a severe weather warning system, the Sardinian ...

P. A. Chessa; G. Ficca; M. Marrocu; R. Buizza

2004-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

234

Integrated nonthermal treatment system study  

SciTech Connect

This report presents the results of a study of nonthermal treatment technologies. The study consisted of a systematic assessment of five nonthermal treatment alternatives. The treatment alternatives consist of widely varying technologies for safely destroying the hazardous organic components, reducing the volume, and preparing for final disposal of the contact-handled mixed low-level waste (MLLW) currently stored in the US Department of Energy complex. The alternatives considered were innovative nonthermal treatments for organic liquids and sludges, process residue, soil and debris. Vacuum desorption or various washing approaches are considered for treatment of soil, residue and debris. Organic destruction methods include mediated electrochemical oxidation, catalytic wet oxidation, and acid digestion. Other methods studied included stabilization technologies and mercury separation of treatment residues. This study is a companion to the integrated thermal treatment study which examined 19 alternatives for thermal treatment of MLLW waste. The quantities and physical and chemical compositions of the input waste are based on the inventory database developed by the US Department of Energy. The Integrated Nonthermal Treatment Systems (INTS) systems were evaluated using the same waste input (2,927 pounds per hour) as the Integrated Thermal Treatment Systems (ITTS). 48 refs., 68 figs., 37 tabs.

Biagi, C.; Bahar, D.; Teheranian, B.; Vetromile, J. [Morrison Knudsen Corp. (United States); Quapp, W.J. [Nuclear Metals (United States); Bechtold, T.; Brown, B.; Schwinkendorf, W. [Lockheed Martin Idaho Technologies Co., Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Swartz, G. [Swartz and Associates (United States)

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

Performance of Integrated Systems of Automated Roller Shade Systems...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

032011 Keywords automated roller shade systems, daylight responsive dimming systems, daylighting, Integrated systems, photoelectric controls Abstract Daylight responsive...

236

SunShot Initiative: Systems Integration Newsletter  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Information Resources Information Resources Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to SunShot Initiative: Systems Integration Newsletter to someone by E-mail Share SunShot Initiative: Systems Integration Newsletter on Facebook Tweet about SunShot Initiative: Systems Integration Newsletter on Twitter Bookmark SunShot Initiative: Systems Integration Newsletter on Google Bookmark SunShot Initiative: Systems Integration Newsletter on Delicious Rank SunShot Initiative: Systems Integration Newsletter on Digg Find More places to share SunShot Initiative: Systems Integration Newsletter on AddThis.com... Publications Newsletter Resource Center Multimedia Meetings & Workshops Solar Innovation Timeline Solar Career Map Glossary Systems Integration Newsletter The SunShot Systems Integration News provides quarterly e-mail updates

237

Westerly Wind Events and the 1997/98 El Niño Event in the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting System: A Case Study  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The 1997/98 El Niño was one of the strongest on record. Its onset was predicted by several numerical models, though none fully captured its intensity. This was the case for the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system that underestimated the ...

Frédéric Vitart; Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda; Laura Ferranti; David Anderson

2003-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

238

The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System. Part III: Case Study of a Melbourne 4-Day Photochemical Smog Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A 4-day photochemical smog event in the Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, region (6–9 March 2001) is examined to assess the performance of the Australian Air Quality Forecasting System (AAQFS). Although peak ozone concentrations measured during ...

K. J. Tory; M. E. Cope; G. D. Hess; S. Lee; K. Puri; P. C. Manins; N. Wong

2004-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

239

The Impact of Horizontal Resolution and Ensemble Size on Probabilistic Forecasts of Precipitation by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The effect of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) is assessed for probabilistic forecasts of 24-h accumulated precipitation. Two sets of experiments are analyzed. The primary experiment compares ...

Steven L. Mullen; Roberto Buizza

2002-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

Verification of Extratropical Cyclones within the NCEP Operational Models. Part II: The Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper verifies the strengths and positions of extratropical cyclones around North America and the adjacent oceans within the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) during the ...

Michael E. Charles; Brian A. Colle

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Impact of the Different Components of 4DVAR on the Global Forecast System of the Meteorological Service of Canada  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) scheme has recently been implemented in the medium-range weather forecast system of the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC). The new scheme is now composed of several additional and ...

Stéphane Laroche; Pierre Gauthier; Monique Tanguay; Simon Pellerin; Josée Morneau

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Integrated Deployment and the Energy Systems Integration Facility: Workshop Proceedings  

SciTech Connect

This report summarizes the workshop entitled: Integrated Deployment and the Energy Systems Integration Facility. In anticipation of the opening of the ESIF, NREL held the workshop August 21-23, 2012 and invited participants from utilities, government, industry, and academia to discuss renewable integration challenges and discover new ways to meet them by taking advantage of the ESIF's capabilities.

Kroposki, B.; Werner, M.; Spikes, A.; Komomua, C.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

244

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

245

Integrated Safety Management (ISM) - System Descriptions  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

System Descriptions Integrated Safety Management (ISM) ism logo Sample DOE Contractor ISM System Descriptions Sample DOE Site Office ISM System Descriptions DOE HQ Program Office...

246

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - Visualization of Electric...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Visualization of Electric Power System Information Workshop The Energy Systems Integration Facility workshop, Visualization of Electric Power System Information, was held September...

247

Hawaii Energy Strategy: Program guide. [Contains special sections on analytical energy forecasting, renewable energy resource assessment, demand-side energy management, energy vulnerability assessment, and energy strategy integration  

SciTech Connect

The Hawaii Energy Strategy program, or HES, is a set of seven projects which will produce an integrated energy strategy for the State of Hawaii. It will include a comprehensive energy vulnerability assessment with recommended courses of action to decrease Hawaii's energy vulnerability and to better prepare for an effective response to any energy emergency or supply disruption. The seven projects are designed to increase understanding of Hawaii's energy situation and to produce recommendations to achieve the State energy objectives of: Dependable, efficient, and economical state-wide energy systems capable of supporting the needs of the people, and increased energy self-sufficiency. The seven projects under the Hawaii Energy Strategy program include: Project 1: Develop Analytical Energy Forecasting Model for the State of Hawaii. Project 2: Fossil Energy Review and Analysis. Project 3: Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Development Program. Project 4: Demand-Side Management Program. Project 5: Transportation Energy Strategy. Project 6: Energy Vulnerability Assessment Report and Contingency Planning. Project 7: Energy Strategy Integration and Evaluation System.

1992-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

248

Integrated Energy System Dispatch Optimization  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

On-site cogeneration of heat and electricity, thermal and electrical storage, and curtailing/rescheduling demand options are often cost-effective to commercial and industrial sites. This collection of equipment and responsive consumption can be viewed as an integrated energy system(IES). The IES can best meet the sites cost or environmental objectives when controlled in a coordinated manner. However, continuously determining this optimal IES dispatch is beyond the expectations for operators of smaller systems. A new algorithm is proposed in this paper to approximately solve the real-time dispatch optimization problem for a generic IES containing an on-site cogeneration system subject to random outages, limited curtailment opportunities, an intermittent renewable electricity source, and thermal storage. An example demonstrates how this algorithm can be used in simulation to estimate the value of IES components.

Firestone, Ryan; Stadler, Michael; Marnay, Chris

2006-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

249

Energy Systems Integration | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

for Nuclear Power(Davis 2012) A Framework for the Optimization of Integrated Energy Systems(Jain and Alleyne 2012) Energy System Integration(Smith 2001) more Group members (8)...

250

Integrating Renewable Energy Systems in Buildings (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation on integrating renewable energy systems into building was presented at the August, 2011 ASHRAE Region IX CRC meetings.

Hayter, S. J.

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

251

A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

252

Business forecasting methods  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and goals. They are three different things. Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the information available including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might impact the forecasts. Goals are what you would like to happen. Goals should be linked to forecasts and plans, but this does not always occur. Too often, goals are set without any plan for how to achieve them, and no forecasts for whether they are realistic. Planning is a response to forecasts and goals. Planning involves determining the appropriate actions that are required to make your forecasts match your goals. Forecasting should be an integral part of the decision-making activities of management, as it can play an important role in many areas of a company. Modern organizations require short-, medium- and long-term forecasts, depending on the specific application.

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

253

Integrated control system and method  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

An integrated control system for use with an engine connected to a generator providing electrical power to a switchgear is disclosed. The engine receives gas produced by a gasifier. The control system includes an electronic controller associated with the gasifier, engine, generator, and switchgear. A gas flow sensor monitors a gas flow from the gasifier to the engine through an engine gas control valve and provides a gas flow signal to the electronic controller. A gas oversupply sensor monitors a gas oversupply from the gasifier and provides an oversupply signal indicative of gas not provided to the engine. A power output sensor monitors a power output of the switchgear and provide a power output signal. The electronic controller changes gas production of the gasifier and the power output rating of the switchgear based on the gas flow signal, the oversupply signal, and the power output signal.

Wang, Paul Sai Keat; Baldwin, Darryl; Kim, Myoungjin

2013-10-29T23:59:59.000Z

254

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - Partnerships  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Partnerships Partnerships Photo of a researcher in a laboratory in front of various computer simulations Advanced Energy NREL and AE are teaming up on solar inverter testing. Photo of a hybrid sport utility vehicle in motion; the vehicle is marked with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory logo. Toyota NREL and Toyota are studying grid impacts of electric vehicles. Photo of a glass cube containing power electronics equipment in a laboratory. Wyle NREL and Wyle are building a hybrid power system for the Army. The Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was recently designated a national user facility by the Energy Department, so utilities, industry, and other national laboratories can use the facility to develop their technologies with the

255

Defense Nuclear Material Stewardship Integrated Inventory Information Management System (IIIMS).  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Sandia National Laboratories was tasked with developing the Defense Nuclear Material Stewardship Integrated Inventory Information Management System (IIIMS) with the sponsorship of NA-125.3 and the concurrence of DOE/NNSA field and area offices. The purpose of IIIMS was to modernize nuclear materials management information systems at the enterprise level. Projects over the course of several years attempted to spearhead this modernization. The scope of IIIMS was broken into broad enterprise-oriented materials management and materials forecasting. The IIIMS prototype was developed to allow multiple participating user groups to explore nuclear material requirements and needs in detail. The purpose of material forecasting was to determine nuclear material availability over a 10 to 15 year period in light of the dynamic nature of nuclear materials management. Formal DOE Directives (requirements) were needed to direct IIIMS efforts but were never issued and the project has been halted. When restarted, duplicating or re-engineering the activities from 1999 to 2003 is unnecessary, and in fact future initiatives can build on previous work. IIIMS requirements should be structured to provide high confidence that discrepancies are detected, and classified information is not divulged. Enterprise-wide materials management systems maintained by the military can be used as overall models to base IIIMS implementation concepts upon.

Aas, Christopher A.; Lenhart, James E.; Bray, Olin H.; Witcher, Christina Jenkin

2004-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

256

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - Research and Development  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Research and Development Energy systems integration optimizes the design and performance of electrical, thermal, and fuel systems at different but interrelated scales, ranging from...

257

RACORO Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated...

258

Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

Integrated Hydrogen Storage System Model  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

WSRC-TR-2007-00440, REVISION 0 WSRC-TR-2007-00440, REVISION 0 Keywords: Hydrogen Kinetics, Hydrogen Storage Vessel Metal Hydride Retention: Permanent Integrated Hydrogen Storage System Model Bruce J. Hardy November 16, 2007 Washington Savannah River Company Savannah River Site Aiken, SC 29808 Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy Under Contract Number DEAC09-96-SR18500 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared for the United States Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC09-96SR18500 and is an account of work performed under that contract. Neither the United States Department of Energy, nor WSRC, nor any of their employees makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for accuracy, completeness, or usefulness, of any information,

260

Using the WRF Model in an Operational Streamflow Forecast System for the Jordan River  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was employed to provide precipitation forecasts during the 2008/09 and 2009/10 winters (wet season) for Israel and the surrounding region where complex terrain dominates. The WRF precipitation ...

Amir Givati; Barry Lynn; Yubao Liu; Alon Rimmer

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

The role of ICTs in downscaling and up-scaling integrated weather forecasts for farmers in sub-Saharan Africa  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Despite global advancements in technology and inter-trade volumes, Sub-Saharan Africa is the only Region where cases of hunger have increased since 1990. Rampant and frequent droughts are one of the major causes of this. Monumental and mostly donor-funded ... Keywords: Nganyi clan of western Kenya, indigenous knowledge weather forecasts, seasonal climate forecasts, sub-Saharan Africa, wireless sensor networks

Muthoni Masinde; Antoine Bagula; Nzioka J. Muthama

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

Fuel Cell Technologies Office: Systems Integration  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Systems Integration The breadth and complexity of the overall Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program RD&D effort, as well as the interaction of program elements, requires an integrated...

263

Impact of Wind PowerImpact of Wind Power Forecasting on Unit  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Impact of Wind PowerImpact of Wind Power Forecasting on Unit Commitment and Dispatchp Jianhui Wang and University of Porto, Portugal 8th Int. Wind Integration Workshop, Bremen, Germany, Oct. 14 2009 #12;Outline of the information in wind power forecasts in system and market operationsin system and market operations Stochastic

Hudson, Randy

264

Power Systems Integration Laboratory (Fact Sheet)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This fact sheet describes the purpose, lab specifications, applications scenarios, and information on how to partner with NREL's Power Systems Integration Laboratory at the Energy Systems Integration Facility. At NREL's Power Systems Integration Laboratory in the Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF), research focuses on developing and testing large-scale distributed energy systems for grid-connected, stand-alone, and microgrid applications. The laboratory can accommodate large power system components such as inverters for photovoltaic (PV) and wind systems, diesel and natural gas generators, battery packs, microgrid interconnection switchgear, and vehicles. Closely coupled with the research electrical distribution bus at the ESIF, the Power Systems Integration Laboratory will offer power testing capability of megawatt-scale DC and AC power systems, as well as advanced hardware-in-the-loop and model-in-the-loop simulation capabilities. Thermal heating and cooling loops and fuel also allow testing of combined heating/cooling and power systems (CHP).

Not Available

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

266

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

267

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount of a data compression ...

Mark S. Roulston; Leonard A. Smith

2002-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts—a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average ...

Eugenia Kalnay; Amnon Dalcher

1987-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-range ensemble forecasting is extended to a critical winter weather problem: forecasting precipitation type. Forecast soundings from the operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system are combined with five precipitation-type ...

Matthew S. Wandishin; Michael E. Baldwin; Steven L. Mullen; John V. Cortinas Jr.

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

Building America Systems Integration Research Annual Report:...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Systems Integration Research Annual Report: FY 2012 Prepared for: Building America Building Technologies Program Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S....

272

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - U.S. DOE's Energy Systems...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

February 2013 U.S. DOE's Energy Systems Integration Facility at NREL photo showing the front view of the entrance to the Energy Systems Integration Facility Front view of the...

273

Forecast Combinations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this chapter we analyze theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the degree of correlation between forecast errors and the relative size of the individual models’ forecast error variances). Although the reasons for the success of simple combination schemes are poorly understood, we discuss several possibilities related to model misspecification, instability (non-stationarities) and estimation error in situations where thenumbersofmodelsislargerelativetothe available sample size. We discuss the role of combinations under asymmetric loss and consider combinations of point, interval and probability forecasts. Key words: Forecast combinations; pooling and trimming; shrinkage methods; model misspecification, diversification gains

Allan Timmermann; Jel Codes C

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

274

INTEGRATED HYDROGEN STORAGE SYSTEM MODEL  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Hydrogen storage is recognized as a key technical hurdle that must be overcome for the realization of hydrogen powered vehicles. Metal hydrides and their doped variants have shown great promise as a storage material and significant advances have been made with this technology. In any practical storage system the rate of H2 uptake will be governed by all processes that affect the rate of mass transport through the bed and into the particles. These coupled processes include heat and mass transfer as well as chemical kinetics and equilibrium. However, with few exceptions, studies of metal hydrides have focused primarily on fundamental properties associated with hydrogen storage capacity and kinetics. A full understanding of the complex interplay of physical processes that occur during the charging and discharging of a practical storage system requires models that integrate the salient phenomena. For example, in the case of sodium alanate, the size of NaAlH4 crystals is on the order of 300nm and the size of polycrystalline particles may be approximately 10 times larger ({approx}3,000nm). For the bed volume to be as small as possible, it is necessary to densely pack the hydride particles. Even so, in packed beds composed of NaAlH{sub 4} particles alone, it has been observed that the void fraction is still approximately 50-60%. Because of the large void fraction and particle to particle thermal contact resistance, the thermal conductivity of the hydride is very low, on the order of 0.2 W/m-{sup o}C, Gross, Majzoub, Thomas and Sandrock [2002]. The chemical reaction for hydrogen loading is exothermic. Based on the data in Gross [2003], on the order of 10{sup 8}J of heat of is released for the uptake of 5 kg of H{sub 2}2 and complete conversion of NaH to NaAlH{sub 4}. Since the hydride reaction transitions from hydrogen loading to discharge at elevated temperatures, it is essential to control the temperature of the bed. However, the low thermal conductivity of the hydride makes it difficult to remove the heat of reaction, especially in the relatively short target refueling times, see Attachment 3. This document describes a detailed numerical model for general metal hydride beds that couples reaction kinetics with heat and mass transfer, for both hydriding and dehydriding of the bed. The detailed model is part of a comprehensive methodology for the design, evaluation and modification of hydrogen storage systems. In Hardy [2007], scoping models for reaction kinetics, bed geometry and heat removal parameters are discussed. The scoping models are used to perform a quick assessment of storage systems and identify those which have the potential to meet DOE performance targets. The operational characteristics of successful candidate systems are then evaluated with the more detailed models discussed in this document. The detailed analysis for hydrogen storage systems is modeled in either 2 or 3-dimensions, via the general purpose finite element solver COMSOL Multiphysics{reg_sign}. The two-dimensional model serves to provide rapid evaluation of bed configurations and physical processes, while the three-dimensional model, which requires a much longer run time, is used to investigate detailed effects that do not readily lend themselves to two-dimensional representations. The model is general and can be adapted to any geometry or storage media. In this document, the model is applied to a modified cylindrical shell and tube geometry with radial fins perpendicular to the axis, see Figures 4.1-1 and 4.1-2. Sodium alanate, NaAlH{sub 4}, is used as the hydrogen storage medium. The model can be run on any DOS, LINUX or Unix based system.

Hardy, B

2007-11-16T23:59:59.000Z

275

Weather Research and Forecasting Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System: WRFDA  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Data assimilation is the process by which observations are combined with short-range NWP model output to produce an analysis of the state of the atmosphere at a specified time. Since its inception in the late 1990s, the multiagency Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model effort has had a strong data assimilation component, dedicating two working groups to the subject. This article documents the history of the WRF data assimilation effort, and discusses the challenges associated with balancing academic, research, and operational data assimilation requirements in the context of the WRF effort to date. The WRF Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System (WRFDA) has evolved over the past 10 years, and has resulted in over 30 refereed publications to date, as well as implementation in a wide range of real-time and operational NWP systems.

Barker, D.; Huang, X. Y.; Liu, Z. Q.; Auligne, T.; Zhang, X.; Rugg, S.; Ajjaji, R.; Bourgeois, A.; Bray, J.; Chen, Y. S.; Demirtas, M.; Guo, Y. R.; Henderson, T.; Huang, W.; Lin, H. C.; Michalakes, J.; Rizvi, S.; Zhang, X. Y.

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

276

PIA - iManage Strategic Integrated Procurement Enterprise System...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

iManage Strategic Integrated Procurement Enterprise System (STRIPES) PIA - iManage Strategic Integrated Procurement Enterprise System (STRIPES) PIA - iManage Strategic Integrated...

277

Vehicle Technologies Office: Thermal Control and System Integration  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Thermal Control and System Integration The thermal control and system integration activity focuses on issues such as the integration of motor and power control technologies and the...

278

NREL Leads Energy Systems Integration: Issue 4 (Book), Continuum...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

- A Living Laboratory for Integrated Solutions for a A Renewable Electricity Future Energy Systems Integration Complex Energy World Energy Systems Integration NREL is a national...

279

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - NREL's Energy Systems Integration...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

a variety of operating configurations including, grid connected stand-alone microgrids and hybrid power systems. The PSIL can accommodate large power system components...

280

Substation Integrated Automation System Based on DSP  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This Paper introduces the application of digital signal processor (DSP) at Substation Integrated Automation System. Using the powerful digital signal processing capability of DSP, high-speed multi-channel data acquisition function, and excellent data ... Keywords: Substation, Digital Signal Processor, Integrated Automation System

Yanzhe Li; Duowang Fan; Xuwei Dong

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

An Integrated Surface Radiation Measurement System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An integrated surface radiation measurement system has been developed to measure the surface radiation exchange flux. The system employs upward- and downward-looking Eppley pyrgeometers and pyranometers to separately measure four components: ...

A. C. Delany; S. R. Semmer

1998-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

282

Customization of the EPRI Artificial Neural Network Short-Term Load Forecaster (ANNSTLF) and User Support for the California Independent System Operator (CA-ISO)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Load forecasting is an important part of power system planning and operation. In the past, forecasting was achieved by extrapolating existing load data combined with other influencing factors. This method is no longer accurate enough. The Artificial Neural Network Short-Term Load Forecaster (ANNSTLF) is a tool for the quick and accurate prediction of hourly loads that provides the level of accuracy required by today's complex and competitive power markets. This report describes all the deliverables for t...

2002-11-19T23:59:59.000Z

283

NREL: Sustainable NREL - Energy Systems Integration Facility  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Energy Systems Integration Facility Energy Systems Integration Facility A close-up photo of a grey and yellow research facility. The Energy Systems Integration Facility The Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF), designed to Platinum-level standards of U.S. Green Building Council's Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED®), incorporates a large number of energy efficiency and sustainability practices. Researchers housed within will help overcome challenges related to the interconnection of distributed energy systems and the integration of renewable energy technologies into the electricity grid. The ESIF will also contain advanced computational capability. Fast Facts Cost: $135M Square feet: 182,500 Occupants: 205 Labs/Equipment: 14 laboratories, an Insight Visualization Center, a

284

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

285

Prev'air: An Operational Forecasting and Mapping System for Air Quality in Europe  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The current state of the art in three-dimensional chemistry-transport models allows them to be considered as mature and reliable enough to be combined with observations networks for implementing integrated air quality monitoring systems over ...

Laurence Rouil; Cécile Honoré; Bertrand Bessagnet; Laure Malherbe; Frédérik Meleux; Robert Vautard; Matthias Beekmann; Jean-Marie Flaud; Anne Dufour; Daniel Martin; Aline Peuch; Vincent-Henri Peuch; Christian Elichegaray; Nathalie Poisson; Laurent Menut

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

A novel hybrid AI system framework for crude oil price forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this study, a novel hybrid AI system framework is developed by means of a systematic integration of artificial neural networks (ANN) and rulebased expert system (RES) with web-based text mining (WTM) techniques. Within the hybrid AI system framework, ...

Shouyang Wang; Lean Yu; K. K. Lai

2004-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

The influence of frequency shifts in microwave sounder channels on NWP analyses and forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The sensitivity of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) analysis and forecast accuracies with respect to frequency shift in microwave passbands is quantified through a series of observing system experiments using the ECMWF integrated assimilation ...

Carole Peubey; William Bell

288

Application of partial mutual information variable selection to ANN forecasting of water quality in water distribution systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Recent trends in the management of water supply have increased the need for modelling techniques that can provide reliable, efficient, and accurate representation of the complex, non-linear dynamics of water quality within water distribution systems. ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks, Chlorine disinfection, Chlorine residual forecasting, Input variable selection, Partial mutual information, Water quality modelling

Robert J. May; Graeme C. Dandy; Holger R. Maier; John B. Nixon

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System. Part II: Case Study of a Sydney 7-Day Photochemical Smog Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of the Australian Air Quality Forecasting System (AAQFS) is examined by means of a case study of a 7-day photochemical smog event in the Sydney region. This was the worst smog event for the 2000/ 01 oxidant season, and, because of ...

G. D. Hess; K. J. Tory; M. E. Cope; S. Lee; K. Puri; P. C. Manins; M. Young

2004-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

290

The Potential Impact of Using Persistence as a Reference Forecast on Perceived Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill is defined as actual forecast performance relative to the performance of a reference forecast. It is shown that the choice of reference (e.g., random or persistence) can affect the perceived performance of the forecast system. Two scores, ...

Marion P. Mittermaier

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

291

Ability to Forecast Regional Soil Moisture with a Distributed Hydrological Model Using ECMWF Rainfall Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study mimics an online forecast system to provide nine day-ahead forecasts of regional soil moisture. It uses modified ensemble rainfall forecasts from the numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...

J. M. Schuurmans; M. F. P. Bierkens

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

Spatial Structure, Forecast Errors, and Predictability of the South Asian Monsoon in CFS Monthly Retrospective Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The spatial structure of the boreal summer South Asian monsoon in the ensemble mean of monthly retrospective forecasts by the Climate Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is examined. The forecast errors and ...

Hae-Kyung Lee Drbohlav; V. Krishnamurthy

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 ­ List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically

294

SUBSURFACE REPOSITORY INTEGRATED CONTROL SYSTEM DESIGN  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this document is to develop preliminary high-level functional and physical control system architectures for the proposed subsurface repository at Yucca Mountain. This document outlines overall control system concepts that encompass and integrate the many diverse systems being considered for use within the subsurface repository. This document presents integrated design concepts for monitoring and controlling the diverse set of subsurface operations. The subsurface repository design will be composed of a series of diverse systems that will be integrated to accomplish a set of overall functions and objectives. The subsurface repository contains several Instrumentation and Control (I&C) related systems including: waste emplacement systems, ventilation systems, communication systems, radiation monitoring systems, rail transportation systems, ground control monitoring systems, utility monitoring systems (electrical, lighting, water, compressed air, etc.), fire detection and protection systems, retrieval systems, and performance confirmation systems. Each of these systems involve some level of I&C and will typically be integrated over a data communication network. The subsurface I&C systems will also integrate with multiple surface-based site-wide systems such as emergency response, health physics, security and safeguards, communications, utilities and others. The scope and primary objectives of this analysis are to: (1) Identify preliminary system level functions and interface needs (Presented in the functional diagrams in Section 7.2). (2) Examine the overall system complexity and determine how and on what levels these control systems will be controlled and integrated (Presented in Section 7.2). (3) Develop a preliminary subsurface facility-wide design for an overall control system architecture, and depict this design by a series of control system functional block diagrams (Presented in Section 7.2). (4) Develop a series of physical architectures that present preliminary concepts for integrating the diverse set of control systems to be used within the subsurface repository facility (Presented in Section 7.3). (5) Develop initial concepts for an overall subsurface data communication system that can be used to integrate critical and data-intensive control systems (Presented in Section 7.4). (6) Discuss technology trends and control system design issues (Presented in Section 7.5).

C.J. Fernado

1998-09-17T23:59:59.000Z

295

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

296

Using adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system to forecast automobile sales  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Improving the sales forecasting accuracy has become a primary concern for automobile industry. Here, we only focus on new automobile sales in Taiwan. The data set is based on monthly sales, and the data can be divided into three styles of automobile ... Keywords: ANFIS, ANN, ARIMA, Demand forecasting

Fu-Kwun Wang; Ku-Kuang Chang; Chih-Wei Tzeng

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEMS: PRODUCTIVITY & BUILDING SCIENCE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Large Commercial HVAC Systems Led by Erik Kolderup, Eley Associates, Inc. Advanced VAV System Design will modify their rating system for tubular daylighting devices; and 2) U-factor results will affect how NFRC) E3 10/03 Advanced VAV System Design Guideline (Eley) E4 5/03 Integrated Design of Small Commercial

298

Operational pollution forecast for the region of Bulgaria  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational prototype of the Integrated Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System is presented. This version of the system is limited to relatively low resolution (10 km) but covers all Bulgaria. It is based on the US EPA Models-3 System (MM5

D. Syrakov; I. Etropolska; M. Prodanova; K. Ganev; N. Miloshev; K. Slavov

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

Advanced Integrated Systems Technology Development  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

allows the use of alternative cooling sources, for example,system, and alternative radiant cooling technology, i.e.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

300

Advanced Integrated Systems Technology Development  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

refrigeration, and fire protection systems. Figure 2.1.2-1: CalSTRS Headquarters, Sacramento, CA (Mechanical design

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Energy Systems Integration Laboratory (Fact Sheet)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This fact sheet describes the purpose, lab specifications, applications scenarios, and information on how to partner with NREL's Energy Systems Integration Laboratory at the Energy Systems Integration Facility. The Energy Systems Integration Laboratory at NREL's Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) provides a flexible, renewable-ready platform for research, development, and testing of state-of-the-art hydrogen-based and other energy storage systems. The main focus of the laboratory is assessment of the technical readiness, performance characterization, and research to help industry move these systems towards optimal renewable-based production and efficient utilization of hydrogen. Research conducted in the Energy Systems Integration Laboratory will advance engineering knowledge and market deployment of hydrogen technologies to support a growing need for versatile distributed electricity generation, applications in microgrids, energy storage for renewables integration, and home and station-based hydrogen vehicle fueling. Research activities are targeted to improve the technical readiness of the following: (1) Low and high temperature electrolyzers, reformers and fuel cells; (2) Mechanical and electrochemical compression systems; (3) Hydrogen storage; (4) Hydrogen vehicle refueling; and (5) Internal combustion or turbine technology for electricity production. Examples of experiments include: (1) Close- and direct-coupling of renewable energy sources (PV and wind) to electrolyzers; (2) Performance and efficiency validation of electrolyzers, fuel cells, and compressors; (3) Reliability and durability tracking and prediction; (4) Equipment modeling and validation testing; (5) Internal combustion or turbine technology for electricity production; and (6) Safety and code compliance.

Not Available

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

Dynamic filter weights neural network model integrated with differential evolution for day-ahead price forecasting in energy market  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper a new dynamic model for forecasting electricity prices from 1 to 24h in advance is proposed. The model is a dynamic filter weight Adaline using a sliding mode weight adaptation technique. The filter weights for this neuron constitute of ... Keywords: Differential evolution, Dynamic filter weights neuron, Energy market, Local linear wavelet neural network, Sliding mode control

S. Chakravarty; P. K. Dash

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

General Electric Uses an Integrated Framework for Product Costing, Demand Forecasting, and Capacity Planning of New Photovoltaic Technology Products  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

General Electric (GE) Energy's nascent solar business has revenues of over $100 million, expects those revenues to grow to over $1 billion in the next three years, and has plans to rapidly grow the business beyond this period. GE Global Research (GEGR), ... Keywords: capital budgeting, cost analysis, facilities planning, forecasting, mathematical programming, risk

Bex George Thomas; Srinivas Bollapragada

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

304

SunShot Initiative: Systems Integration  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Systems Integration Systems Integration High Penetration Solar Portal The High Penetration Solar Portal has timely information related to high penetration solar scenarios and integrating solar into the grid. The site allows utilities, grant awardees, regulators, researchers, and other solar professionals can easily share data, case studies, lessons learned, and demonstration project findings. Photo of power lines. Transmission line access is one challenge facing new utility-scale solar installations in the U.S. Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL 18981 Through the SunShot Initiative, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) supports the development of innovative, cost-effective solutions that allow increasing amounts of solar energy to integrate seamlessly with the national power grid while mitigating associated risks and reducing system costs. Such solutions will help achieve the SunShot goals by ensuring system reliability and encouraging the widespread deployment of solar technologies, such as photovoltaics and concentrating solar power.

305

Energy Systems Integration | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Energy Systems Integration Energy Systems Integration Home > Groups Content Group Activity By term Q & A Feeds Share your own status updates, and follow the updates & activities of others by creating your own account. Or, remember to log in If you already have an account. Groups Menu You must login in order to post into this group. Recent content OpenEI maintenance March 8-9, 2013 Research topics related to ESI Prospects for Nuclear Power(Davis 2012) A Framework for the Optimization of Integrated Energy Systems(Jain and Alleyne 2012) Energy System Integration(Smith 2001) more Group members (8) Managers: Aaronbeach Recent members: Jim mcveigh Derekhogue Ads15 Marklane Qinsun Wisconsin Weatherall Windows Payne 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation:

306

Energy Systems Integration | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Groups > Groups > Energy Systems Integration Groups > Groups > Energy Systems Integration Content Group Activity By term Q & A Feeds There are no feeds from external sites for this group. Groups Menu You must login in order to post into this group. Groups Menu You must login in order to post into this group. Group members (8) Managers: Aaronbeach Recent members: Jim mcveigh Derekhogue Ads15 Marklane Qinsun Wisconsin Weatherall Windows Payne Recent content OpenEI maintenance March 8-9, 2013 Research topics related to ESI Prospects for Nuclear Power(Davis 2012) A Framework for the Optimization of Integrated Energy Systems(Jain and Alleyne 2012) Energy System Integration(Smith 2001) more Group members (8) Managers: Aaronbeach Recent members: Jim mcveigh Derekhogue Ads15 Marklane Qinsun Wisconsin Weatherall Windows Payne

307

Integrated Envelope and Lighting Systems  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Energy Efficiency Program and Market Trends High Technology and Industrial Buildings Lighting Systems Residential Buildings Simulation Tools Sustainable Federal Operations Windows...

308

Romanian power systems engineering towards EU integration  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The evolution of electric power system analysis methods followed the present technical problems and business needs of electric utilities in Romania, before EU integration. Present technical requirements and the current stage of power system analysis ... Keywords: computer applications, computer simulation, fourier analysis, modelling, power systems, training

Stefania Popadiuc; Bogdan Popa; Frangiskos Topalis; Cristiana Geambasu

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

Coal Integrated Gasification Fuel Cell System Study  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This study analyzes the performance and economics of power generation systems based on Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) technology and fueled by gasified coal. System concepts that integrate a coal gasifier with a SOFC, a gas turbine, and a steam turbine were developed and analyzed for plant sizes in excess of 200 MW. Two alternative integration configurations were selected with projected system efficiency of over 53% on a HHV basis, or about 10 percentage points higher than that of the state-of-the-art Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) systems. The initial cost of both selected configurations was found to be comparable with the IGCC system costs at approximately $1700/kW. An absorption-based CO2 isolation scheme was developed, and its penalty on the system performance and cost was estimated to be less approximately 2.7% and $370/kW. Technology gaps and required engineering development efforts were identified and evaluated.

Chellappa Balan; Debashis Dey; Sukru-Alper Eker; Max Peter; Pavel Sokolov; Greg Wotzak

2004-01-31T23:59:59.000Z

310

Development of an Integrated Distribution Management System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This final report details the components, functionality, costs, schedule and benefits of developing an Integrated Distribution Management System (IDMS) for power distribution system operation. The Distribution Automation (DA) and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems used by electric power companies to manage the distribution of electric power to retail energy consumers are vital components of the Nation’s critical infrastructure. Providing electricity is an essential public service and a disruption in that service, if not quickly restored, could threaten the public safety and the Nation’s economic security. Our Nation’s economic prosperity and quality of life have long depended on the essential services that utilities provide; therefore, it is necessary to ensure that electric utilities are able to conduct their operations safely and efficiently. A fully integrated technology of applications is needed to link various remote sensing, communications and control devices with other information tools that help guide Power Distribution Operations personnel. A fully implemented IDMS will provide this, a seamlessly integrated set of applications to raise electric system operating intelligence. IDMS will enhance DA and SCADA through integration of applications such as Geographic Information Systems, Outage Management Systems, Switching Management and Analysis, Operator Training Simulator, and other Advanced Applications, including unbalanced load flow and fault isolation/service restoration. These apps are capable of utilizing and obtaining information from appropriately installed DER, and by integrating disparate systems, the Distribution Operators will benefit from advanced capabilities when analyzing, controlling and operating the electric system.

Schatz, Joe E.

2010-10-20T23:59:59.000Z

311

Integrating databases and workflow systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

There has been an information explosion in fields of science such as high energy physics, astronomy, environmental sciences and biology. There is a critical need for automated systems to manage scientific applications and data. Database technology is ...

Srinath Shankar; Ameet Kini; David J. DeWitt; Jeffrey Naughton

2005-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals

313

Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating

Hamill, Tom

314

Energy Systems Integration: A Convergence of Ideas  

SciTech Connect

Energy systems integration (ESI) enables the effective analysis, design, and control of these interactions and interdependencies along technical, economic, regulatory, and social dimensions. By focusing on the optimization of energy from all systems, across all pathways, and at all scales, we can better understand and make use of the co-benefits that result to increase reliability and performance, reduce cost, and minimize environmental impacts. This white paper discusses systems integration and the research in new control architectures that are optimized at smaller scales but can be aggregated to optimize energy systems at any scale and would allow replicable energy solutions across boundaries of existing and new energy pathways.

Kroposki, B.; Garrett, B.; MacMillan, S.; Rice, B.; Komomua, C.; O'Malley, M.; Zimmerle, D.

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

Combined hydraulic and black-box models for flood forecasting in urban drainage systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: Rapid urbanization and its implications for both water quality issues and floods have increased the need for modeling of urban drainage systems. Many operational models are based on deterministic solutions of hydraulic equations. Improving such models by adding a “black-box ” component to deal with any systematic structure in the residuals is proposed. In this study, a conventional deterministic stormwater drainage network model is first developed for a rapidly developing catchment using the HYDROWORKS ?now called Infoworks ? package, from Wallingford Software in the United Kingdom. However, despite the generally satisfactory results, the HYDROWORKS model tended to underestimate the flow volume. In this paper, a black-box or “systems ” model is fitted to the hydraulic urban drainage model in order to improve its overall efficiency. A study was conducted of suitable black-box models, which included the nonlinear artificial neural network model ?ANN?, and the linear time series models of Box and Jenkins in 1976. They were added to either the output ?in simulation mode ? or, in updating mode, to the residuals ?i.e., difference between modeled and measured output ? of the deterministic hydraulic model. The updating procedure provided a considerable improvement in the overall model efficiency for different lead-time forecasting. In simulation mode, however, only the nonlinear ANN model gave better performance in calibration, and a slight improvement in validation.

Michael Bruen; M. Asce; Jianqing Yang

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

316

Multiresolution Ensemble Forecasts of an Observed Tornadic Thunderstorm System. Part II: Storm-Scale Experiments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In Part I, the authors used a full physics, nonhydrostatic numerical model with horizontal grid spacing of 24 km and nested grids of 6- and 3-km spacing to generate the ensemble forecasts of an observed tornadic thunderstorm complex. The ...

Fanyou Kong; Kelvin K. Droegemeier; Nicki L. Hickmon

2007-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

317

A Fuzzy Logic–Based Analog Forecasting System for Ceiling and Visibility  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

WIND-3 is an application for aviation weather forecasting that uses the analog method to produce deterministic predictions of cloud ceiling height and horizontal visibility at airports. For data, it uses historical and current airport ...

Bjarne Hansen

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

Calibrated Surface Temperature Forecasts from the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System Using Bayesian Model Averaging  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a way of correcting underdispersion in ensemble forecasts. BMA is a standard statistical procedure for combining predictive distributions from different sources. The output of BMA is a ...

Laurence J. Wilson; Stephane Beauregard; Adrian E. Raftery; Richard Verret

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

Seal system with integral detector  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

There is disclosed a seal system for materials where security is of the essence, such as nuclear materials, which is tamper-indicating, which indicates changes in environmental conditions that evidence attempts to by-pass the seal, which is unique and cost effective, said seal system comprised of a seal where an optical signal is transmitted through a loop, with a detector to read said signal, and one or more additional detectors designed to detect environmental changes, these detectors being operatively associated with the seal so that detection of a break in the optical signal or detection of environmental changes will cause an observable change in the seal.

Fiarman, Sidney (Port Jefferson, NY)

1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

Seal system with integral detector  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A seal system is disclosed for materials where security is of the essence, such as nuclear materials. The seal is tamper-indicating, indicates changes in environmental conditions that evidence attempts to bypass the seal, is unique and cost effective. The seal system is comprised of a seal where an optical signal is transmitted through a loop, with a detector to read said signal, and one or more additional detectors designed to detect environmental changes, these detectors being operatively associated with the seal so that detection of a break in the optical signal or detection of environmental changes will cause an observable change in the seal.

Fiarman, S.

1982-08-12T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Implementing Innovation in Planning Practice: The Case of Travel Demand Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project. Institute ofTRB. Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice andPurvis. Regional Travel Forecasting Model System for the San

Newmark, Gregory Louis

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

322

Integrated Renewable Hydrogen Utility System  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Products based on Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) technology offer a unique solution to today's energy conversion storage needs. PEM products have undergone continual development since the late 1950's for many diverse applications. Rooted in rigorous aerospace applications, this technology is now ''breaking away'' to provide commercial solutions to common power, energy, and industrial gas feedstock problems. Important developments in PEM electrolyzers and various energy conversion devices (e.g. engines and fuel cells) can now be combined to form the basis for a revolutionary energy storage system that provides a much needed link to renewable resources, and offers a credible alternative for off-grid power applications. This technology operates by converting electrical energy into chemical energy in the form of hydrogen as part of a water electrolysis process when excess power is available. When the primary source of power is unavailable, chemical energy is converted into electrical energy through an external combustion heat engine or other energy conversion device. The Phase II portion of this program began in May of 2000. The goal of Phase II of the project was to cost reduce the hydrogen generator as a critical link to having a fully sustainable hydrogen energy system. The overall goal is to enable the link to sustainability by converting excess renewable power into hydrogen and having that hydrogen available for conversion back to power, on demand. Furthermore, the cost of the capability must be less the $1,000 per kW (electrical power into the generator) and allow for a variety of renewable technology inputs. This cost target is based on a production volume of 10,000 units per year. To that end, Proton undertook an aggressive approach to cost reduction activities surrounding the 6kW, 40 standard cubic foot per hour (scfh) HOGEN hydrogen generator. The electrical side of the system targeted a number of areas that included approaches to reduce the cost of the power supply and associated electronics as well as improving efficiency, implementing a circuit board to replace the discreet electrical components in the unit, and evaluating the system issues when operating the unit with a variety of renewable inputs. On the mechanical side of the system the targets involved creative use of manifolds to reduce components and plumbing, overall fitting reduction through layout simplification and welded tube assemblies, and the development of an inexpensive gas drying methodology to remove moisture and improve gas purity. Lastly, activities surrounding the electrolysis cell stack focused on lower cost stack compression approaches and cost reduction of critical components. The last year of this project focused on validating the cost reductions mentioned above and advancing these cost reductions forward into a larger hydrogen generator. This larger hydrogen generator is a 60kW, 380 scfh, HOGEN hydrogen generator. Most of these efforts were in the control board and manifold development areas. The results achieved over the life of this program are in line with the goals of the Department of Energy. Proton projects that the current design of the 40 scfh generator projected to a volume of 10,000 units per year would be in the range of $1,500 per kilowatt. Furthermore, continuing efforts on materials substitution and design enhancements over the next few years should bring the cost of the system to the $1,000 per kilowatt goal for a system of this size. This report provides the technical details behind the cost reduction efforts undertaken during the Phase II portion of the program.

Proton Energy Systems

2003-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

Integrated Renewable Hydrogen Utility System  

SciTech Connect

Products based on Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) technology offer a unique solution to today's energy conversion storage needs. PEM products have undergone continual development since the late 1950's for many diverse applications. Rooted in rigorous aerospace applications, this technology is now ''breaking away'' to provide commercial solutions to common power, energy, and industrial gas feedstock problems. Important developments in PEM electrolyzers and various energy conversion devices (e.g. engines and fuel cells) can now be combined to form the basis for a revolutionary energy storage system that provides a much needed link to renewable resources, and offers a credible alternative for off-grid power applications. This technology operates by converting electrical energy into chemical energy in the form of hydrogen as part of a water electrolysis process when excess power is available. When the primary source of power is unavailable, chemical energy is converted into electrical energy through an external combustion heat engine or other energy conversion device. The Phase II portion of this program began in May of 2000. The goal of Phase II of the project was to cost reduce the hydrogen generator as a critical link to having a fully sustainable hydrogen energy system. The overall goal is to enable the link to sustainability by converting excess renewable power into hydrogen and having that hydrogen available for conversion back to power, on demand. Furthermore, the cost of the capability must be less the $1,000 per kW (electrical power into the generator) and allow for a variety of renewable technology inputs. This cost target is based on a production volume of 10,000 units per year. To that end, Proton undertook an aggressive approach to cost reduction activities surrounding the 6kW, 40 standard cubic foot per hour (scfh) HOGEN hydrogen generator. The electrical side of the system targeted a number of areas that included approaches to reduce the cost of the power supply and associated electronics as well as improving efficiency, implementing a circuit board to replace the discreet electrical components in the unit, and evaluating the system issues when operating the unit with a variety of renewable inputs. On the mechanical side of the system the targets involved creative use of manifolds to reduce components and plumbing, overall fitting reduction through layout simplification and welded tube assemblies, and the development of an inexpensive gas drying methodology to remove moisture and improve gas purity. Lastly, activities surrounding the electrolysis cell stack focused on lower cost stack compression approaches and cost reduction of critical components. The last year of this project focused on validating the cost reductions mentioned above and advancing these cost reductions forward into a larger hydrogen generator. This larger hydrogen generator is a 60kW, 380 scfh, HOGEN hydrogen generator. Most of these efforts were in the control board and manifold development areas. The results achieved over the life of this program are in line with the goals of the Department of Energy. Proton projects that the current design of the 40 scfh generator projected to a volume of 10,000 units per year would be in the range of $1,500 per kilowatt. Furthermore, continuing efforts on materials substitution and design enhancements over the next few years should bring the cost of the system to the $1,000 per kilowatt goal for a system of this size. This report provides the technical details behind the cost reduction efforts undertaken during the Phase II portion of the program.

Proton Energy Systems

2003-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

Coal Integrated Gasification Fuel Cell System Study  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The pre-baseline configuration for an Integrated Gasification Fuel Cell (IGFC) system has been developed. This case uses current gasification, clean-up, gas turbine, and bottoming cycle technologies together with projected large planar Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) technology. This pre-baseline case will be used as a basis for identifying the critical factors impacting system performance and the major technical challenges in implementing such systems. Top-level system requirements were used as the criteria to evaluate and down select alternative sub-systems. The top choice subsystems were subsequently integrated to form the pre-baseline case. The down-selected pre-baseline case includes a British Gas Lurgi (BGL) gasification and cleanup sub-system integrated with a GE Power Systems 6FA+e gas turbine and the Hybrid Power Generation Systems planar Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) sub-system. The overall efficiency of this system is estimated to be 43.0%. The system efficiency of the pre-baseline system provides a benchmark level for further optimization efforts in this program.

Gregory Wotzak; Chellappa Balan; Faress Rahman; Nguyen Minh

2003-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Backlund Transformations for Darboux Integrable Differential Systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We give a new mechanism for constructing Backlund transformations by using symmetry reduction of differential systems. We then characterize a family of Backlund transformations between Darboux integrable systems where the Backlund transformation can be constructed by the proposed symmetry reduction method. It is then shown that the well-known Backlund transformations between Darboux integrable Monge-Ampere systems can all be constructed using group quotients. A simple group theoretical argument leads to a non-existence result for Backlund transformations which disagrees with Theorem 1 in arXiv:0707.4408v2. A variety of examples are given.

Anderson, Ian M

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

Integrated Energy Systems | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Integrated Energy Systems Integrated Energy Systems Jump to: navigation, search Name Integrated Energy Systems Address 747 N Main Street Place Orange, California Zip 92868 Sector Solar Product EPC Year founded 1985 Number of employees 51-200 Phone number 714-771-9098 Website http://ie-systems.net/ Coordinates 33.799624°, -117.86553° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":33.799624,"lon":-117.86553,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

327

Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

328

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

329

Secretary Moniz Speaks on New Energy Systems Integration Facility...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

on New Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) at NREL Secretary Moniz Speaks on New Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) at NREL Addthis Speakers Secretary Ernest Moniz...

330

iManage Strategic Integrated Procurement Enterprise System (STRIPES...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

iManage Strategic Integrated Procurement Enterprise System (STRIPES) PIA, Office of Procurement and Assistance Management iManage Strategic Integrated Procurement Enterprise System...

331

PIA - iManage Strategic Integrated Procurement Enterprise System...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

PIA - iManage Strategic Integrated Procurement Enterprise System (STRIPES) PIA - iManage Strategic Integrated Procurement Enterprise System (STRIPES) PIA - iManage Strategic...

332

Vehicle Technologies Office: Thermal Control and System Integration  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Thermal Control and System Integration to someone by E-mail Share Vehicle Technologies Office: Thermal Control and System Integration on Facebook Tweet about Vehicle Technologies...

333

A Framework for the Optimization of Integrated Energy Systems...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

A Framework for the Optimization of Integrated Energy Systems(Jain and Alleyne 2012) Home > Groups > Energy Systems Integration Qinsun's picture Submitted by Qinsun(35) Member 15...

334

Energy Systems Integration | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Literature Review Literature Review Type Term Title Author Replies Last Post sort icon Document Literature Review A Framework for the Optimization of Integrated Energy Systems(Jain and Alleyne 2012) Qinsun 15 Nov 2012 - 13:19 Document Literature Review Energy System Integration(Smith 2001) Qinsun 15 Nov 2012 - 13:09 Document Literature Review Integrated Energy Systems (IES) for Buildings: A Market Assessment(LeMar 2002) Qinsun 15 Nov 2012 - 13:05 Document Literature Review Optimal Power Flow of Multiple Energy Carriers(Geidl and Andersson 2007) Qinsun 15 Nov 2012 - 13:04 Document Literature Review Energy Forms or Energy Carriers(G, Herrmann et al. 1983) Qinsun 15 Nov 2012 - 10:28 Groups Menu You must login in order to post into this group.

335

A Frequent-Updating Analysis System Based on Radar, Surface, and Mesoscale Model Data for the Beijing 2008 Forecast Demonstration Project  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) was implemented in Beijing, China, and contributed to the Beijing 2008 Forecast Demonstration Project (B08FDP) in support of the Beijing Summer Olympics. VDRAS is a four-dimensional ...

Juanzhen Sun; Mingxuan Chen; Yingchun Wang

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

336

Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

337

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

338

Depositional sequences and integrated recovery efficiency forecast models for San Andres and Clearfork Units in the Central Basin Platform and the Northern Shelf, west Texas  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper develops depositional sequences of the carbonate ramp and the carbonate shelf models for an idealized cycle and multiple cycles of depositions. Based on the developed depositional sequences, the integrated recovery efficiency forecast models of primary, initial waterflood and infill drilling are developed for the San Andres and Clearfork reservoirs in Central Basin Platform and the Northern Shelf, west Texas. The geological parameters and well spacing are considered major factors for controlling recovery efficiencies. The depositional environment and diagenesis are controlling geological factors affecting oil recovery efficiencies. The depositional sequences characterize the vertical and lateral variations of depositional-energy environments in development of the carbonate ramp and the carbonate shelf The depositional-energy environment controls the depositional rock's facies. The well-sorted and large-size grainstones are related to the higher depositional-energy environment. The poorly-sorted and small-size rocks are related to the lower depositional-energy environment. The depositions of the San Andres and Clearfork formation in the Central Basin Platform, separately, follow the prograding-ramp sequences of one major cycle with multiple subcycles. The lumping depositional energy increases from the inner platform to the platform boundary. Similarly, the depositions of San Andres and Clearfork formation in the Northern Shelf also follow one major prograding cycle with multiple subcycles, separately. However, the lumping depositional energy, decreases from the inner platform to the platform boundary. A normalized depositional energy index is defined based on the depositional sequences of the ramp and shelf models. Normalization is also used to define a porosity index and a well spacing index. Linear and exponential regressions on a database are conducted to develop recovery efficiency forecast models which include depositional energy, porosity and well spacing indices. Section 17, Dollarhide Clearfork Unit is used as an example to show the applications of the recovery efficiency forecast models.

Shao, Hongbin

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

339

Vitrification Facility integrated system performance testing report  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report provides a summary of component and system performance testing associated with the Vitrification Facility (VF) following construction turnover. The VF at the West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) was designed to convert stored radioactive waste into a stable glass form for eventual disposal in a federal repository. Following an initial Functional and Checkout Testing of Systems (FACTS) Program and subsequent conversion of test stand equipment into the final VF, a testing program was executed to demonstrate successful performance of the components, subsystems, and systems that make up the vitrification process. Systems were started up and brought on line as construction was completed, until integrated system operation could be demonstrated to produce borosilicate glass using nonradioactive waste simulant. Integrated system testing and operation culminated with a successful Operational Readiness Review (ORR) and Department of Energy (DOE) approval to initiate vitrification of high-level waste (HLW) on June 19, 1996. Performance and integrated operational test runs conducted during the test program provided a means for critical examination, observation, and evaluation of the vitrification system. Test data taken for each Test Instruction Procedure (TIP) was used to evaluate component performance against system design and acceptance criteria, while test observations were used to correct, modify, or improve system operation. This process was critical in establishing operating conditions for the entire vitrification process.

Elliott, D.

1997-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

340

Improved Middle Atmosphere Climate and Forecasts in the ECMWF Model through a Nonorographic Gravity Wave Drag Parameterization  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In model cycle 35r3 (Cy35r3) of the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS), the momentum deposition from small-scale nonorographic gravity waves is parameterized by the Scinocca scheme, which uses hydrostatic nonrotational wave dynamics to ...

Andrew Orr; Peter Bechtold; John Scinocca; Manfred Ern; Marta Janiskova

2010-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

342

California Energy Commission Public Interest Energy Research/Energy System Integration -- Transmission-Planning Research & Development Scoping Project  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Case Selection • Natural Gas Prices • Demand • Hydrology •Natural gas price forecast - Near-term new generation - DemandDemand-side alternatives to transmission • Integration of natural gas

Eto, Joseph H.; Lesieutre, Bernard; Widergren, Steven

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

343

SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

BARCOT, R.A.

2005-08-17T23:59:59.000Z

344

VISION 2050: An Integrated National Transportation System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

VISION 2050: An Integrated National Transportation System #12;The Federal Transportation Advisory members are from the National Research Council (NRC) Transportation Research Board (TRB) and National advisory committees, including the FAA REDAC, NASA ASTAC, and the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT

Hansman Jr., John R.

345

Transmission and Grid Integration: Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (Fact Sheet)  

SciTech Connect

Factsheet developed to describe the activites of the Transmission and Grid Integration Group within NREL's Electricity, Resources, and Buildings Systems Integration center.

Not Available

2009-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

346

Economic Development Through Biomass Systems Integration  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Current research has shown the economic feasibility of integrated biomass systems using willow as an energy crop feedstock along with available wood wastes. Utility members in the Empire State Biopower Consortium anticipate conversion of four pulverized-coal plants for co-firing at 10% by heat content. Co-firing would be a prelude to repowering with a high-efficiency biopower system by 2012.

1995-10-07T23:59:59.000Z

347

SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

BARCOT, R.A.

2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

348

Short-term streamflow forecasting: ARIMA vs neural networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Streamflow forecasting is very important for water resources management and flood defence. In this paper two forecasting methods are compared: ARIMA versus a multilayer perceptron neural network. This comparison is done by forecasting a streamflow of ... Keywords: artificial neural networks, auto regressive integrated moving average, forecasting, streamflow

Juan Frausto-Solis; Esmeralda Pita; Javier Lagunas

2008-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

349

A new class of hybrid models for time series forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Applying quantitative models for forecasting and assisting investment decision making has become more indispensable in business practices than ever before. Improving forecasting especially time series forecasting accuracy is an important yet often difficult ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks (ANNs), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Hybrid models, Probabilistic neural networks (PNNs), Time series forecasting

Mehdi Khashei; Mehdi Bijari

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

350

RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS CHANDRASHEKAR SUBRAMANIAN  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

or over predicting electricity demand due to poor weather forecasts is several hundred million dollars outages that many in the area experienced. Deep Thunder can also improve generation-side load forecasting by providing high-resolution weather forecast data for use in electricity demand forecast models. Integrating

Manry, Michael

351

Missing wind data forecasting with adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In any region, to begin generating electricity from wind energy, it is necessary to determine the 1-year distribution characteristics of wind speed. For this aim, a wind observation station must be constructed and 1-year wind speed and direction data ... Keywords: ANFIS, Back-propagation, Forecasting, Missing data, Wind energy, Wind speed

Fatih O. Hocaoglu; Yusuf Oysal; Mehmet Kurban

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

352

Study of Machine Round-Off response on Weather Forecasting Simulations Using High Performance Computing Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The weather forecasting model T80L18 is found to be sensitive to variations in the computing platform. The global spectral model simulation variation due to machine round off is examined using rounding mode analysis and the perturbation methods. The ...

S. Janakiraman; J. V. Ratnam; Akshara Kaginalkar

2000-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

353

A Weather Forecasting System using concept of Soft Computing: a new approach  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Weather forecasting and warnings are the major services provided by the meteorological profession. Many government and private agencies are working on its behavior but still it is challenging and incomplete. We propose a new technique to construct the learning set of images

A. Sharma; U. Datta

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

354

Forecasting Uncertain Hotel Room Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic systems are characterized by increasing uncertainty in their dynamics. This increasing uncertainty is likely to incur bad decisions that can be costly in financial terms. This makes forecasting of uncertain economic variables an instrumental activity in any organization. This paper takes the hotel industry as a practical application of forecasting using the Holt-Winters method. The problem here is to forecast the uncertain demand for rooms at a hotel for each arrival day. Forecasting is part of hotel revenue management system whose objective is to maximize the revenue by making decisions regarding when to make rooms available for customers and at what price. The forecast approach discussed in this paper is based on quantitative models and does not incorporate management expertise. Even though, forecast results are found to be satisfactory for certain days, this is not the case for other arrival days. It is believed that human judgment is important when dealing with ...

Mihir Rajopadhye Mounir; Mounir Ben Ghaliay; Paul P. Wang; Timothy Baker; Craig V. Eister

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

355

The Economic Value Of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The potential economic benefit associated with the use of an ensemble of forecasts versus anequivalent or higher-resolution control forecast is discussed. Neither forecast systems are post-processed,except a simple calibration that is applied to ...

Yuejian Zhu; Zoltan Toth; Richard Wobus; David Richardson; Kenneth Mylne

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Over the last years, probability weather forecasts have become increasingly popular due in part to the development of ensemble forecast systems. Despite its widespread use in atmospheric sciences, probability forecasting remains a subtle and ...

Ramón de Elía; René Laprise

2005-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

357

Integrated Energy and Greenhouse Gas Management System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

With Climate Change legislation on the horizon, the need to integrate energy reduction initiatives with greenhouse gas reduction efforts is critical to manufactures competitiveness and financial strength going forward. MPC has developed an integrated Energy and Greenhouse Gas Management System that allows companies to reduce energy and carbon intensity at the same time all the while bolstering bottom line performance. Reducing energy use and greenhouse gases is not an option but a necessity today. All manufacturing companies need to develop in-house capabilities to manage these important resources or pay the price of high carbon taxes and/or face a depletion in operating margins. MPC will present a case history highlighting the steps taken, the results obtained and the lessons learned in developing an integrated Energy and Greenhouse Gas Management System with a major industrial manufacturing company in the Midwest. Key subject areas covered include: Integration of Climate Change and Energy Management Strategies- a winning approach to meet the challenge; Turn a potential cost of compliance into a new cash flow source; Leveraging Energy Management Systems to optimize savings; Navigating through the new Greenhouse Gas reporting requirements; Utilizing Plant and Corporate Energy Management Dashboards to Control Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas emissions.

Spates, C. N.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

358

Integrated Requirements Management System and System Design Description  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document provides a System Design Description (SDD) for the Integrated Requirements Management System (IRMS) database. The database manager chosen for this task was the Dynamic Object Oriented Requirements System (DOORS) Version 5.0 or greater. The schema for the IRMS is described with respect to the CH2M Hill Hanford Group, Inc requirements management processes.

ACREE, C.D.

2001-03-27T23:59:59.000Z

359

Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction  

SciTech Connect

Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

360

Nuclear Fuel Cycle Integrated System Analysis  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Fuel Cycle Integrated System Analysis Fuel Cycle Integrated System Analysis Abdellatif M. Yacout Argonne National Laboratory Nuclear Engineering Division The nuclear fuel cycle is a complex system with multiple components and activities that are combined to provide nuclear energy to a variety of end users. The end uses of nuclear energy are diverse and include electricity, process heat, water desalination, district heating, and possibly future hydrogen production for transportation and energy storage uses. Components of the nuclear fuel cycle include front end components such as uranium mining, conversion and enrichment, fuel fabrication, and the reactor component. Back end of the fuel cycle include used fuel coming out the reactor, used fuel temporary and permanent storage, and fuel reprocessing. Combined with those components there

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Integrated safety management system verification: Volume 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Department of Energy (DOE) Policy (P) 450.4, Safety Management System Policy, commits to institutionalization of an Integrated Safety Management System (ISMS) throughout the DOE complex. The DOE Acquisition Regulations (DEAR, 48 CFR 970) requires contractors to manage and perform work in accordance with a documented Integrated Safety Management System (ISMS). Guidance and expectations have been provided to PNNL by incorporation into the operating contract (Contract DE-ACM-76FL0 1830) and by letter. The contract requires that the contractor submit a description of their ISMS for approval by DOE. PNNL submitted their proposed Safety Management System Description for approval on November 25,1997. RL tentatively approved acceptance of the description pursuant to a favorable recommendation from this review. The Integrated Safety Management System Verification is a review of the adequacy of the ISMS description in fulfilling the requirements of the DEAR and the DOE Policy. The purpose of this review is to provide the Richland Operations Office Manager with a recommendation for approval of the ISMS description of the Pacific Northwest Laboratory based upon compliance with the requirements of 49 CFR 970.5204(-2 and -78); and to verify the extent and maturity of ISMS implementation within the Laboratory. Further the review will provide a model for other DOE laboratories managed by the Office of Assistant Secretary for Energy Research.

Christensen, R.F.

1998-08-10T23:59:59.000Z

362

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

363

Background pollution forecast over bulgaria  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both, the current level of air pollution studies and social needs in the country, are in a stage mature enough for creating Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System The system is foreseen to provide in real time forecast of the spatial/temporal ...

D. Syrakov; K. Ganev; M. Prodanova; N. Miloshev; G. Jordanov; E. Katragkou; D. Melas; A. Poupkou; K. Markakis

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

364

Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In a recent article Gneiting, Balabdaoui and Raftery (JRSSB, 2007) propose the criterion of sharpness for the evaluation of predictive distributions or density forecasts. They motivate their proposal by an example in which standard evaluation procedures based on probability integral transforms cannot distinguish between the ideal forecast and several competing forecasts. In this paper we show that their example has some unrealistic features from the perspective of the time-series forecasting literature, hence it is an insecure foundation for their argument that existing calibration procedures are inadequate in practice. We present an alternative, more realistic example in which relevant statistical methods, including information-based methods, provide the required discrimination between competing forecasts. We conclude that there is no need for a subsidiary criterion of sharpness.

James Mitchell; Kenneth F. Wallis

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

365

Energy Systems Integration: A Convergence of Ideas  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Integration Integration A Convergence of Ideas July 2012 Ben Kroposki, Bobi Garrett, Stuart Macmillan, Brent Rice, and Connie Komomua National Renewable Energy Laboratory Mark O'Malley University College Dublin Dan Zimmerle Colorado State University NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. 1 Energy Systems Integration A Convergence of Ideas Benjamin Kroposki, Bobi Garrett, Stuart Macmillan, Brent Rice, Connie Komomua National Renewable Energy Laboratory Mark O'Malley University College Dublin Dan Zimmerle Colorado State University Prepared under Task No. 2940.5017 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency

366

Integrated safety management system verification: Volume 1  

SciTech Connect

Department of Energy (DOE) Policy (P) 450.4, Safety Management System Policy, commits to institutionalizing an Integrated Safety Management System (ISMS) throughout the DOE complex. The DOE Acquisition Regulations (DEAR 48 CFR 970) requires contractors to manage and perform work in accordance with a documented Integrated Safety Management System. The Manager, Richland Operations Office (RL), initiated a combined Phase 1 and Phase 2 Integrated Safety Management Verification review to confirm that PNNL had successfully submitted a description of their ISMS and had implemented ISMS within the laboratory facilities and processes. A combined review was directed by the Manager, RL, based upon the progress PNNL had made in the implementation of ISM. This report documents the results of the review conducted to verify: (1) that the PNNL integrated safety management system description and enabling documents and processes conform to the guidance provided by the Manager, RL; (2) that corporate policy is implemented by line managers; (3) that PNNL has provided tailored direction to the facility management; and (4) the Manager, RL, has documented processes that integrate their safety activities and oversight with those of PNNL. The general conduct of the review was consistent with the direction provided by the Under Secretary`s Draft Safety Management System Review and Approval Protocol. The purpose of this review was to provide the Manager, RL, with a recommendation to the adequacy of the ISMS description of the Pacific Northwest Laboratory based upon compliance with the requirements of 49 CFR 970.5204(-2 and -78); and, to provide an evaluation of the extent and maturity of ISMS implementation within the Laboratory. Further, this review was intended to provide a model for other DOE Laboratories. In an effort to reduce the time and travel costs associated with ISM verification the team agreed to conduct preliminary training and orientation electronically and by phone. These activities are normally conducted during a pre-visit trip to the site. The Team recommends approval of the Integrated Safety Management System Description subject to the resolution of the Areas of Concerns noted here.

Christensen, R.F.

1998-08-12T23:59:59.000Z

367

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - Campus, City, and Community...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Campus, City, and Community Integration Energy systems integration R&D on a campus, city, and community scale encompasses technologies such as campus energy aggregation,...

368

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - Special Edition: NREL's Energy Systems  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

September 2012 September 2012 Special Edition: NREL's Energy Systems Integration Facility eNewsletter The Energy Systems Integration Facility eNewsletter is a quarterly publication, but there is so much going on we had to share the news early! At the top of the news, HP and Intel have been selected to help NREL create one of the world's fastest and most efficient high performance computing (HPC) data centers. The HPC data center will be located in the ESIF and will support R&D efforts in energy systems integration, renewable energy, and energy efficiency across the entire campus. We're also exited to announce the launch of several new ESI websites on NREL.gov that include an interactive online tour of the ESIF laboratories and an interactive graphic that explains the unique system-of-systems approach NREL is taking to

369

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Solarbudget at the foundation of satellite based forecastingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 7.1 Global

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

370

Wind forecasting objectives for utility schedulers and energy traders  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The wind energy industry and electricity producers can benefit in a number of ways from increased wind forecast accuracy. Higher confidence in the reliability of wind forecasts can help persuade an electric utility to increase the penetration of wind energy into its operating system and to augment the capacity value of wind electric generation. Reliable forecasts can also assist daily energy traders employed by utilities in marketing the available and anticipated wind energy to power pools and other energy users. As the number of utilities with wind energy experience grows, and wind energy penetration levels increase, the need for reliable wind forecasts will likely grow as well. This period of wind energy growth also coincides with advances in computer weather prediction technology that could lead to more accurate wind forecasts. Thus, it is important to identify the type of forecast information needed by utility schedulers and energy traders. This step will help develop approaches to the challenge of wind forecasting that will result in useful products being supplied to utilities or other energy generating entities. This paper presents the objectives, approach, and current findings of a US Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory (DOE/NREL) initiative to develop useful wind forecasting tools for utilities involved with wind energy generation. The focus of this initiative thus far has been to learn about the needs of prospective utility users. NREL representatives conducted a series of onsite interviews with key utility staff, usually schedulers and research planners, at seven US utilities. The purpose was to ascertain information on actual scheduling and trading procedures, and how utilities could integrate wind forecasting into these activities.

Schwartz, M.N. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States); Bailey, B.H. [AWS Scientific, Inc., Albany, NY (United States)

1998-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

371

Bayesian Model Verification of NWP Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts of convective precipitation have large uncertainties. To consider the forecast uncertainties of convection-permitting models, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (...

Andreas Röpnack; Andreas Hense; Christoph Gebhardt; Detlev Majewski

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

372

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest Inventory.brewer@forestry.gsi.gov.uk Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 Rationale behind the new approach to the GB Private sector production forecast ........4 Volume

373

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub

374

Tank Waste System Integrated Project Team  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Decisional Draft Decisional Draft 1 This document is intended for planning and analysis purposes, assuming a continuing constrained budget environment. Every effort will be made to comply with all applicable environmental and legal obligations, while also assuring that essential functions necessary to protect human health, the environment and national security are maintained. Tank Waste System Tank Waste System Integrated Project Team Integrated Project Team Steve Schneider Office of Engineering and Technology Tank Waste Corporate Board July 29, 2009 2 This document is intended for planning and analysis purposes, assuming a continuing constrained budget environment. Every effort will be made to comply with all applicable environmental and legal obligations, while also assuring that essential functions necessary

375

Energy Systems Integration | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Energy Systems Integration Energy Systems Integration Home > Features > Groups Content Group Activity By term Q & A Feeds Content type Blog entry Discussion Document Event Poll Question Keywords Author Apply Rmckeel OpenEI maintenance March 8-9, 2013 Posted by: Rmckeel 8 Mar 2013 - 14:23 We would like to inform the OpenEI community that OpenEI will be undergoing a significant software upgrade during a maintenance window this weekend. We will be upgrading the wiki and... Tags: developer, Maintenance, OpenEI Qinsun Research topics related to ESI Posted by: Qinsun 15 Nov 2012 - 13:55 · Modeling and optimization of multiple energy carriers [2-6] · ... Tags: ESI, MarketsIncentives Qinsun Prospects for Nuclear Power(Davis 2012) Posted by: Qinsun 15 Nov 2012 - 13:36 This paper analyzed the potential of nuclear power compare to other type of

376

ITER Construction--Plant System Integration  

SciTech Connect

This brief paper introduces how the ITER will be built in the international collaboration. The ITER Organization plays a central role in constructing ITER and leading it into operation. Since most of the ITER components are to be provided in-kind from the member countries, integral project management should be scoped in advance of real work. Those include design, procurement, system assembly, testing, licensing and commissioning of ITER.

Tada, E. [ITER Organization Cadarache Center, 13108 St Paul lez Durance (France); Matsuda, S. [Japan Atomic Energy Research Agency, 100-0011, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo (Japan)

2009-02-19T23:59:59.000Z

377

Making Forecasts and Weather Normalization Work Together  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Electric utility industry restructuring has changed the consistency between weather-normalized sales and energy forecasts. This Technology Review discusses the feasibility of integrating weather normalization and forecasting processes, and addresses whether the conflicting goal of obtaining greater consistency and accuracy with fewer staff resources can be met with more integrated approaches.

2000-09-11T23:59:59.000Z

378

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - U.S. DOE's Energy Systems Integration  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

September 2013 September 2013 Energy Systems Integration eNewsletter As energy systems integration (ESI) rapidly gains momentum as a new science and the Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) opens its doors for business, the past few months have been marked with important milestones at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). After announcing the ESIF as the newest U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) user facility in June, Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz made a visit to NREL this month and officially dedicated the ESIF as the nation's first major research facility focused on clean energy grid integration and wide-scale deployment. Read on to learn more about the latest news surrounding ESI at NREL. In this Issue Energy Secretary Moniz Headlines September 11 ESIF Dedication

379

Transforming our Nation's Energy System, Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF)  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) on the campus of the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) will soon be the nation's first facility that can conduct integrated megawatt-scale testing of the components and strategies needed in order to safely move clean energy technologies onto the electrical grid 'in-flight' at the speed and scale required to meet national goals.

Not Available

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

380

INTEGRATED CONTROL OF NEXT GENERATION POWER SYSTEM  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Control methodologies provide the necessary data acquisition, analysis and corrective actions needed to maintain the state of an electric power system within acceptable operating limits. These methods are primarily software-based algorithms that are nonfunctional unless properly integrated with system data and the appropriate control devices. Components of the control of power systems today include protective relays, supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA), distribution automation (DA), feeder automation, software agents, sensors, control devices and communications. Necessary corrective actions are still accomplished using large electromechanical devices such as vacuum, oil and gas-insulated breakers, capacitor banks, regulators, transformer tap changers, reclosers, generators, and more recently FACTS (flexible AC transmission system) devices. The recent evolution of multi-agent system (MAS) technologies has been reviewed and effort made to integrate MAS into next generation power systems. A MAS can be defined as ��a loosely-coupled network of problem solvers that work together to solve problems that are beyond their individual capabilities��. These problem solvers, often called agents, are autonomous and may be heterogeneous in nature. This project has shown that a MAS has significant advantages over a single, monolithic, centralized problem solver for next generation power systems. Various communication media are being used in the electric power system today, including copper, optical fiber and power line carrier (PLC) as well as wireless technologies. These technologies have enabled the deployment of substation automation (SA) at many facilities. Recently, carrier and wireless technologies have been developed and demonstrated on a pilot basis. Hence, efforts have been made by this project to penetrate these communication technologies as an infrastructure for next generation power systems. This project has thus pursued efforts to use specific MAS methods as well as pertinent communications protocols to imbed and assess such technologies in a real electric power distribution system, specifically the Circuit of the Future (CoF) developed by Southern California Edison (SCE). By modeling the behavior and communication for the components of a MAS, the operation and control of the power distribution circuit have been enhanced. The use of MAS to model and integrate a power distribution circuit offers a significantly different approach to the design of next generation power systems. For example, ways to control a power distribution circuit that includes a micro-grid while considering the impacts of thermal constraints, and integrating voltage control and renewable energy sources on the main power system have been pursued. Both computer simulations and laboratory testbeds have been used to demonstrate such technologies in electric power distribution systems. An economic assessment of MAS in electric power systems was also performed during this project. A report on the economic feasibility of MAS for electric power systems was prepared, and particularly discusses the feasibility of incorporating MAS in transmission and distribution (T&D) systems. Also, the commercial viability of deploying MAS in T&D systems has been assessed by developing an initial case study using utility input to estimate the benefits of deploying MAS. In summary, the MAS approach, which had previously been investigated with good success by APERC for naval shipboard applications, has now been applied with promising results for enhancing an electric power distribution circuit, such as the Circuit of the Future developed by Southern California Edison. The results for next generation power systems include better ability to reconfigure circuits, improve protection and enhance reliability.

None

2010-02-28T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average ...

W. Y. Chen

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS. VOL. 25. NO. I. FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting: Similar  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

for Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting," IEEE Trans. PWRS, vol. 11, no. 1, Feb. 1996, pp. 397-402. [4Short-Term Load Forecasting by Feed-Forward Neural Networks Saied S. Sharif1 , James H. Taylor2) is presented for the hourly load forecasting of the coming days. In this approach, 24 independent networks

Luh, Peter

383

Enhanced integrated nonthermal treatment system study  

SciTech Connect

The purpose of the Enhanced Nonthermal Treatment Systems (ENTS) study is to evaluate alternative configurations of one of the five systems evaluated in the Integrated Nonthermal Treatment Systems (INTS) study. Five alternative configurations are evaluated. Each is designed to enhance the final waste form performance by replacing grout with improved stabilization technologies, or to improve system performance by improving the destruction efficiency for organic contaminants. AU enhanced systems are alternative configurations of System NT-5, which has the following characteristics: Nonthermal System NT-5: (1) catalytic wet oxidation (CWO) to treat organic material including organic liquids, sludges, and soft (or combustible) debris, (2) thermal desorption of inorganic sludge and process residue, (3) washing of soil and inorganic debris with treatment by CWO of removed organic material, (4) metal decontamination by abrasive blasting, (5) stabilization of treated sludge, soil, debris, and untreated debris with entrained contamination in grout, and (6) stabilization of inorganic sludge, salts and secondary waste in polymer. System NT-5 was chosen because it was designed to treat combustible debris thereby minimizing the final waste form volume, and because it uses grout for primary stabilization. The enhanced nonthermal systems were studied to determine the cost and performance impact of replacing grout (a commonly used stabilization agent in the DOE complex) with improved waste stabilization methods such as vitrification and polymer.

Biagi, C.; Schwinkendorf, B.; Teheranian, B.

1997-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program: Systems Integration  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Independent Reviews Independent Reviews Macro-System Model U.S. Department of Energy Search help Home > Systems Integration Printable Version Systems Integration The technological advancements and lessons learned through research, development, and demonstration of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies must be integrated to work as a fully functional system. This is the focus of systems integration-understanding the complex interactions between components, systems costs, environmental impacts, societal impacts, and system trade-offs. Identifying and analyzing these interactions will enable evaluation of alternative concepts and pathways, and result in well-integrated and optimized hydrogen and fuel cell systems. Led by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, this activity

385

NREL Leads Energy Systems Integration, Continuum Magazine: Issue 4 (Book)  

SciTech Connect

Continuum Magazine showcases NREL's latest and most impactful clean energy innovations. This issue, 'NREL Leads Energy Systems Integration' explores the discipline of energy systems integration, in particular the role of the laboratory's new, one-of-a-kind Energy System Integration Facility. NREL scientists, engineers, and analysts deeply understand the fundamental science and technologies underpinning major energy producing and consuming systems, as well as the transmission infrastructure and communications and data networks required to integrate energy systems at all scales.

Not Available

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

Update on DOE Integrated Energy Systems Projects  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The Integrated Energy Systems Program, Office of Industrial Programs U. S. Department of Energy has responsibilities in diverse areas of Industrial Energy Conservation. These activities include Energy Analysis and Diagnostic Centers (EADC) providing energy audit support to small and medium sized manufacturing plants, technology transfer support in conjunction with industrial sector companies and trade associations, funding and direction of the Energy Integrated Farm program, administration of the Industrial Energy Efficiency Improvement Program, and the Industrial Sector Technology Use Model (ISTUM). Recent technology transfer activity with the major industrial trade associations and manufacturing firms has been for the development of industrial energy conservation guides, publication of association conservation seminar proceedings, and cooperative assistance in selected projects designed to enhance conservation in industrial manufacturing activities. This paper briefly describes specific federal industrial conservation program achievements and current and planned technology transfer and industrial conservation projects extending into 1986.

Williams, T. E., Jr.

1984-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998  

SciTech Connect

Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

NONE

1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

Integrated Assessment Systems for Chemical Warfare Material  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The US Army must respond to a variety of situations involving suspect discovered, recovered, stored, and buried chemical warfare materiel (CWM). In some cases, the identity of the fill materiel and the status of the fusing and firing train cannot be visually determined due to aging of the container, or because the item is contained in an over-pack. In these cases, non-intrusive assessments are required to provide information to allow safe handling, storage, and disposal of the materiel. This paper will provide an overview of the integrated mobile and facility-based CWM assessment system prototypes that have been, and are being developed, at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) for the US Army Non-Stockpile Chemical Materiel Project. In addition, this paper will discuss advanced sensors being developed to enhance the capability of the existing and future assessment systems. The Phase I Mobile Munitions Assessment System (MMAS) is currently being used by the Army's Technical Escort Unit (TEU) at Dugway Proving Ground, Utah. This system includes equipment for non-intrusively identifying the munitions fill materiel and for assessing the condition and stability of the fuzes, firing trains, and other potential safety hazards. The system provides a self-contained, integrated command post including an on-board computer system, communications equipment, video and photographic equipment, weather monitoring equipment, and miscellaneous safety-related equipment. The Phase II MMAS is currently being tested and qualified for use by the INEEL and the US Army. The Phase II system contains several new assessment systems that significantly enhance the ability to assess CWM. A facility-based munitions assessment system prototype is being developed for the assessment of CWM stored in igloos at Pine Bluff Arsenal, Arkansas. This system is currently in the design and fabrication stages. Numerous CWM advanced sensors are being developed and tested, and pending successful test results, may be incorporated in the various munitions assessment systems in the future. These systems are intended to enhance CWM fill materiel identification, agent air monitoring, agent or agent degradation product detection by surface analysis, and real-time x-ray capabilities.

A. M. Snyder; D. A. Verrill; G. L. Thinnes; K. D. Watts; R. J. McMorland

1999-05-27T23:59:59.000Z

389

Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses  

SciTech Connect

To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment, and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region’s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.; Wang, Taiping

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

390

Renewable and Distributed Systems Integration Peer Review  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

4 4 Denver Marriott West Golden, Colorado AGENDA Tuesday, November 2, 2010 8:00 am Registration and Continental Breakfast 9:00 am-9:10 am Welcome Dr. Robert Hawsey, Associate Laboratory Director for Renewable Electricity and End Use Systems, US DOE-National Renewable Energy Laboratory 9:10 am-9:25 am Overview of Smart Grid Program Eric Lightner, U.S. Department of Energy 9:25 am-9:40 am Overview of Smart Grid Research and Development Activities Dan Ton, U.S. Department of Energy Moderator - Merrill Smith, U.S. Department of Energy 9:40 am-10:10 am University of Hawaii Renewable and Distributed Systems Jay Griffin, University of Hawaii 10:10 am-10:40 am Demonstration of a Coordinated and Integrated System Dennis Sumner, City of Fort Collins

391

SunShot Initiative: Integrated Solar Thermochemical Reaction System  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Integrated Solar Thermochemical Integrated Solar Thermochemical Reaction System to someone by E-mail Share SunShot Initiative: Integrated Solar Thermochemical Reaction System on Facebook Tweet about SunShot Initiative: Integrated Solar Thermochemical Reaction System on Twitter Bookmark SunShot Initiative: Integrated Solar Thermochemical Reaction System on Google Bookmark SunShot Initiative: Integrated Solar Thermochemical Reaction System on Delicious Rank SunShot Initiative: Integrated Solar Thermochemical Reaction System on Digg Find More places to share SunShot Initiative: Integrated Solar Thermochemical Reaction System on AddThis.com... Concentrating Solar Power Systems Components Competitive Awards CSP Research & Development Thermal Storage CSP Recovery Act Baseload CSP SunShot Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative

392

Energy Systems Integration - Q & A | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Energy Systems Integration - Q & A Home > Energy Systems Integration Content Group Activity By term Q & A Feeds No questions have been added to this group yet. Groups Menu You must...

393

Automated testing as an aid to systems integration  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Within BT‘s Systems Integration department, the integration and testing of large, complex software systems often requires large and complex test regimes. Optimising the activities and time-scales within this part of the life cycle will invariably ...

I. D. Hicks; G. J. South; A. O. Oshisanwo

1997-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

394

Spectral and Parametric Averaging for Integrable Systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We analyze two theoretical approaches to ensemble averaging for integrable systems in quantum chaos - spectral averaging and parametric averaging. For spectral averaging, we introduce a new procedure - rescaled spectral averaging. Unlike traditional spectral averaging, it can describe the correlation function of spectral staircase and produce persistent oscillations of the interval level number variance. Parametric averaging, while not as accurate as rescaled spectral averaging for the correlation function of spectral staircase and interval level number variance, can also produce persistent oscillations of the global level number variance and better describes saturation level rigidity as a function of the running energy. Overall, it is the most reliable method for a wide range of statistics.

Tao Ma; R. A. Serota

2013-06-03T23:59:59.000Z

395

(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast ­ Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. ­ Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving

Hamill, Tom

396

NREL: Continuum Magazine - NREL's Energy Systems Integration Supporting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

NREL's Energy Systems Integration Supporting Facilities NREL's Energy Systems Integration Supporting Facilities Issue 4 Print Version Share this resource NREL's Energy Systems Integration Supporting Facilities Five recently constructed facilities prove clean technology performance for tomorrow's energy systems. A photo of the Energy Systems Integration Facility at NREL. Enlarge image NREL's Energy Systems Integration Facility opened in December, 2012. Photo by Dennis Schroeder The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) recognizes energy systems integration's (ESI) growing importance in designing and managing the energy systems of the near future. A major factor in understanding systems integration issues and solutions is developing research facilities that can evaluate new technologies in a full-system context. To that end, several of

397

Systems Integration: Solar Energy Technologies Program (SETP) (Fact Sheet)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Fact sheet summarizing the goals and activities of the DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program efforts within its systems integration subprogram.

Not Available

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - U.S. DOE's Energy Systems Integration  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

December 2013 December 2013 Energy Systems Integration eNewsletter Welcome to another issue of the Energy Systems Integration eNewsletter, the quarterly-and soon to be monthly-eNewsletter for energy systems integration (ESI) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). In the coming months, you'll begin to hear from us more frequently, but in smaller doses as we retool our newsletter and accompanying website to better represent the scope of work being done in the area of ESI, both at NREL and globally. Each month, we will bring you updates from NREL and our partners on the latest ESI developments worldwide. Plus, we'll highlight new ESI-related opportunities emerging in the fields of technology, science, policy, and markets. Have an item for the next issue of the ESI eNewsletter? Email us at

399

Integrated Hydrogen Production, Purification and Compression System  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The project was started in April 2005 with the objective to meet the DOE target of delivered hydrogen of <$1.50/gge, which was later revised by DOE to $2-$3/gge range for hydrogen to be competitive with gasoline as a fuel for vehicles. For small, on-site hydrogen plants being evaluated at the time for refueling stations (the 'forecourt'), it was determined that capital cost is the main contributor to the high cost of delivered hydrogen. The concept of this project was to reduce the cost by combining unit operations for the entire generation, purification, and compression system (refer to Figure 1). To accomplish this, the Fluid Bed Membrane Reactor (FBMR) developed by MRT was used. The FBMR has hydrogen selective, palladium-alloy membrane modules immersed in the reformer vessel, thereby directly producing high purity hydrogen in a single step. The continuous removal of pure hydrogen from the reformer pushes the equilibrium 'forward', thereby maximizing the productivity with an associated reduction in the cost of product hydrogen. Additional gains were envisaged by the integration of the novel Metal Hydride Hydrogen Compressor (MHC) developed by Ergenics, which compresses hydrogen from 0.5 bar (7 psia) to 350 bar (5,076 psia) or higher in a single unit using thermal energy. Excess energy from the reformer provides up to 25% of the power used for driving the hydride compressor so that system integration improved efficiency. Hydrogen from the membrane reformer is of very high, fuel cell vehicle (FCV) quality (purity over 99.99%), eliminating the need for a separate purification step. The hydride compressor maintains hydrogen purity because it does not have dynamic seals or lubricating oil. The project team set out to integrate the membrane reformer developed by MRT and the hydride compression system developed by Ergenics in a single package. This was expected to result in lower cost and higher efficiency compared to conventional hydrogen production technologies. The overall objective was to develop an integrated system to directly produce high pressure, high-purity hydrogen from a single unit, which can meet the DOE cost H2 cost target of $2 - $3/gge when mass produced. The project was divided into two phases with the following tasks and corresponding milestones, targets and decision points. Phase 1 - Task 1 - Verify feasibility of the concept, perform a detailed techno-economic analysis, and develop a test plan; and Task 2: Build and experimentally test a Proof of Concept (POC) integrated membrane reformer/metal hydride compressor system. Phase 2 - Task 3: Build an Advanced Prototype (AP) system with modifications based on POC learning and demonstrate at a commercial site; and Task 4: Complete final product design for mass manufacturing units capable of achieving DOE 2010 H2 cost and performance targets.

Tamhankar, Satish; Gulamhusein, Ali; Boyd, Tony; DaCosta, David; Golben, Mark

2011-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

400

Building integrated photovoltaic systems analysis: Preliminary report  

SciTech Connect

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has estimated that the deployment of photovoltaics (PV) in the commercial buildings sector has the potential to contribute as much as 40 gigawatts peak electrical generation capacity and displace up to 1.1 quads of primary fuel use. A significant portion of this potential exists for smaller buildings under 25,000 square feet (2,300 square meters) in size or two stories or less, providing a strong cross over potential for residential applications as well. To begin to achieve this potential, research is needed to define the appropriate match of PV systems to energy end-uses in the commercial building sector. This report presents preliminary findings for a technical assessment of several alternative paths to integrate PV with building energy systems.

Not Available

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Cliffside 6 integrated emissions control system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The article takes an inside look into the environmental hardware going into one of the highest profile coal-fired power plants projects in the US, a new 800 MW supercritical coal-fired facility at Cliffside, NC, Unit C6. This is currently under construction and scheduled to be in commercial service in 2012. To evaluate the alternative air quality control system (AQCS) options, Duke Energy established a cross-functional team and used a decision analysis process to select the 'best balanced choice'. Alstom's integrated AQCS which combines dry and wet flue gas desulfurization systems was the best balanced choice. Replacing an ESP with a spray dryer absorber achieved major cost savings and eliminated the need for wastewater treatment. 1 ref., 2 photos.

McGinnis, D.G.; Rader, P.C.; Gansley, R.R.; Wang, W. [Duke Energy, Charlotte, NC (United States)

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

402

INTEGRATED ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOW-WALL SYSTEMS  

SciTech Connect

The building industry faces the challenge of reducing energy use while simultaneously improving construction methods and marketability. This paper describes the first phase of a project to address these concerns by designing an Integrated Window Wall System (IWWS) that can be commercialized. This work builds on previous research conducted during the 1990's by Lawrence Berkeley national Laboratories (LBNL). During this phase, the objective was to identify appropriate technologies, problems and issues and develop a number of design concepts. Four design concepts were developed into prototypes and preliminary energy analyses were conducted Three of these concepts (the foam wall, steel wall, and stiffened plate designs) showed particular potential for meeting the project objectives and will be continued into a second phase where one or two of the systems will be brought closer to commercialization.

Michael Arney, Ph.D.

2002-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

403

Energy Saving in Office Building by Floor Integration System...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Energy Saving in Office Building by Floor Integration System: Reducing Total Energy of HVAC and Lighting system using daylight Speaker(s): Yoshifumi Murakami Date: May 20, 2004 -...

404

The Role of Solution Architects in Systems Integration  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Merging different types of architects in a solution architecture group provides a single point of responsibility for the entire systems solution. Keywords: systems integration, architecture, design

Rakesh Tandon

2007-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

405

Integrated Energy Systems (IES) for Buildings: A Market Assessment...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

topics related to ESI Prospects for Nuclear Power(Davis 2012) A Framework for the Optimization of Integrated Energy Systems(Jain and Alleyne 2012) Energy System...

406

K West integrated water treatment system subproject safety analysis document  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This Accident Analysis evaluates unmitigated accident scenarios, and identifies Safety Significant and Safety Class structures, systems, and components for the K West Integrated Water Treatment System.

SEMMENS, L.S.

1999-02-24T23:59:59.000Z

407

Evaluation of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Determined from Eta and AVN Forecasted Amounts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This note examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecasted amounts from the NCEP Eta (now known as the North American Mesoscale model) and Aviation (AVN; now known as the Global Forecast System) models run over a 2-...

William A. Gallus Jr.; Michael E. Baldwin; Kimberly L. Elmore

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

408

An Operational Model for Forecasting Probability of Precipitation and Yes/No Forecast  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational system for forecasting probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecast over 10 stations during monsoon season is developed. A perfect prog method (PPM) approach is followed for statistical interpretation of numerical weather ...

Ashok Kumar; Parvinder Maini; S. V. Singh

1999-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

409

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 ..............................................................................3 Residential Forecast Comparison ..............................................................................................5 Nonresidential Forecast Comparisons

410

Integrated Building Management System (IBMS) | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Building Management System Building Management System (IBMS) Integrated Building Management System (IBMS) The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is currently conducting research into an integrated building management system (IBMS). Project Description This project seeks to develop an open integration framework that allows multivendor systems to interoperate seamlessly using internet protocols. The applicant will create an integrated control platform for implementing new integrated control strategies and to enable additional enterprise control applications, such as demand response. The project team seeks to develop several strategies that take advantage of the sensors and functionality of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC); security; and information and communication technologies (ICT) subsystems;

411

Machine Maintenance Integrated Performance Support System  

SciTech Connect

The objectives of this partnership project were to develop a preventive maintenance checklist program, a troubleshooting system for the Vertical Turning Center (VTC)-5, an on-line manual, and to integrate these components with a custom browser that would run on the VTC-5 machine's controller and would support future internet/intranet delivery. Kingsbury provided subject matter experts from engineering, manufacturing, and technical support. They also provided photographs, schematics, and CAD drawings, which AlliedSignal Federal Manufacturing and Technologies (ASFM and T) digitized for use in the final program. Information from The Kingsbury troubleshooting experts were interviewed regarding symptoms and root causes of system malfunctions This knowledge was captured and from it, fault trees were developed. These trees were then incorporated into the EPSS as a troubleshooting tool. The troubleshooting portion of the system presents simple questions to the machine operator in order to determine the likely cause or causes of malfunctions and then recommends systematic corrective actions. The on-line reference manual, covering operations and maintenance, provides text and illustrations to the machine operator in a traditional structure, but additionally offers the capability to search voluminous amounts of technical data and retrieve specific information on request. The maintenance portion of the EPSS includes checklists that are displayed daily, weekly, monthly, and annually, as appropriate, on the VTC-5 controller screen. The controller software is unavailable for machining parts until the machine tool operator goes through and checks off all of the checklist items. This project provided the team with a detailed understanding of the knowledge and information required to produce and support advanced machine tools. In addition, it resulted in the design and construction of a prototype VTC-5 EPSS containing all the logic and interfaces necessary to integrate operations and maintenance information from other Kingsbury machine tools.

Bohley, M.C.; Schwartz, M.E.

1998-03-11T23:59:59.000Z

412

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

413

The Forecast Gap: Linking Forwards and Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report addresses a common problem in price forecasting: What to do when confronted with a persistent gap between results obtained from a structural forecast model and actual forward or spot prices? The report examines examples taken from natural gas and electric power forecasts and presents a novel approach to closing this “forecast gap.” Inspection reveals that the ratio of actual prices to forecast prices often exhibits stochastic movements that resemble those of commodity price movements. By usin...

2008-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

414

Using Observed Spatial Correlation Structures to Increase the Skill of Subseasonal Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Model deficiencies limit a subseasonal or seasonal forecast system’s ability to produce accurate predictions. In this paper, an approach for transforming the output of a forecast system into a revised forecast is presented; it is designed to ...

Randal D. Koster; Thomas L. Bell; Rolf H. Reichle; Max J. Suarez; Siegfried D. Schubert

2008-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

415

Local Data Integration over East-Central Florida Using the ARPS Data Analysis System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Applied Meteorology Unit has configured the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) to support operational short-range weather forecasting over east-central Florida, including the Kennedy Space Center and Cape ...

Jonathan L. Case; John Manobianco; Timothy D. Oram; Tim Garner; Peter F. Blottman; Scott M. Spratt

2002-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

416

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - Working with Us  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Working with Us Working with Us NREL offers industry, universities, and other government agencies opportunities to leverage NREL's research expertise. Working with outside organizations is the key to moving clean energy technologies into the market. We provide opportunities to develop technology partnerships, license our technologies, and use our facilities. Learn about the ESIF's current partners. Partner with NREL The Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) is the latest addition to the Energy Department's national network of user facilities that provide nearly 30,000 scientists and engineers each year with open access to some of the world's best instruments and tools, including x-ray sources, accelerators and supercomputers. Corporate users pay the full cost of conducting research and retain their intellectual property and data rights,

417

AN INTEGRATED BIOLOGICAL CONTROL SYSTEM AT HANFORD  

SciTech Connect

In 1999 an integrated biological control system was instituted at the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site. Successes and changes to the program needed to be communicated to a large and diverse mix of organizations and individuals. Efforts at communication are directed toward the following: Hanford Contractors (Liquid or Tank Waste, Solid Waste, Environmental Restoration, Science and Technology, Site Infrastructure), General Hanford Employees, and Hanford Advisory Board (Native American Tribes, Environmental Groups, Local Citizens, Washington State and Oregon State regulatory agencies). Communication was done through direct interface meetings, individual communication, where appropriate, and broadly sharing program reports. The objectives of the communication efforts was to have the program well coordinated with Hanford contractors, and to have the program understood well enough that all stakeholders would have confidence in the work performed by the program to reduce or elimated spread of radioactive contamination by biotic vectors. Communication of successes and changes to an integrated biological control system instituted in 1999 at the Department of Energy's Hanford Site have required regular interfaces with not only a diverse group of Hanford contractors (i.e., those responsible for liquid or tank waste, solid wastes, environmental restoration, science and technology, and site infrastructure), and general Hanford employees, but also with a consortium of designated stake holders organized as the Hanford Advisory Board (i.e., Native American tribes, various environmental groups, local citizens, Washington state and Oregon regulatory agencies, etc.). Direct interface meetings, individual communication where appropriate, and transparency of the biological control program were the methods and outcome of this effort.

JOHNSON AR; CAUDILL JG; GIDDINGS RF; RODRIGUEZ JM; ROOS RC; WILDE JW

2010-02-11T23:59:59.000Z

418

INTEGRATED VERTICAL AND OVERHEAD DECONTAMINATION (IVOD) SYSTEM  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The deactivation and decommissioning of 1200 buildings within the U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Environmental Management complex will require the disposition of a large quantity of contaminated concrete and metal surfaces. It has been estimated that 23 million cubic meters of concrete and over 600,000 tons of metal will need disposition. The disposition of such large quantities of material presents difficulties in the area of decontamination and characterization. The final disposition of this large amount of material will take time and money as well as risk to the D&D work force. A single automated system that would decontaminate and characterize surfaces in one step would not only reduce the schedule and decrease cost during D&D operations but would also protect the D&D workers from unnecessary exposures to contaminated surfaces. This report summarizes the activities performed during FY00 and describes the planned activities for FY01. Accomplishments for FY00 include the following: Development and field-testing of characterization system; Completion of Title III design of deployment platform and decontamination unit; In-house testing of deployment platform and decontamination unit; Completion of system integration design; Identification of deployment site; and Completion of test plan document for deployment of IVOD at Rancho Seco nuclear power facility.

M.A. Ebadian, Ph.D.

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

Integrated Tool Development for Used Fuel Disposition Natural System  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Integrated Tool Development for Used Fuel Disposition Natural Integrated Tool Development for Used Fuel Disposition Natural System Evaluation Phase I Report Integrated Tool Development for Used Fuel Disposition Natural System Evaluation Phase I Report The natural barrier system (NBS) is an integral part of a geologic nuclear waste repository. The report describes progress in development of an integrated modeling framework that can be used for systematically analyzing the performance of a natural barrier system and identifying key factors that control the performance. This framework is designed as an integrated tool for prioritization and programmatic decisions. Integrated Tool Development for Used Fuel Disposition Natural System Evaluation Phase I Report More Documents & Publications Natural System Evaluation and Tool Development FY11 Progress Report

420

Integrated Tool Development for Used Fuel Disposition Natural System  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Integrated Tool Development for Used Fuel Disposition Natural Integrated Tool Development for Used Fuel Disposition Natural System Evaluation Phase I Report Integrated Tool Development for Used Fuel Disposition Natural System Evaluation Phase I Report The natural barrier system (NBS) is an integral part of a geologic nuclear waste repository. The report describes progress in development of an integrated modeling framework that can be used for systematically analyzing the performance of a natural barrier system and identifying key factors that control the performance. This framework is designed as an integrated tool for prioritization and programmatic decisions. Integrated Tool Development for Used Fuel Disposition Natural System Evaluation Phase I Report More Documents & Publications Natural System Evaluation and Tool Development FY11 Progress Report

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Systems Integration and the Department of Energy's Hydrogen Program: Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This paper discusses how the Systems Integration Office assists the Department of Energy's Hydrogen Program by using an integrated baseline approach to identify, define, and analyze requirements and tasks to achieve program goals.

Duffy, M. A.

2007-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

422

Economic development through biomass system integration. Volumes 2--4  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Report documents a feasibility study for an integrated biomass power system, where an energy crop (alfalfa) is the feedstock for a processing plant and a power plant (integrated gasification combined cycle) in a way that benefits the facility owners.

DeLong, M.M.

1995-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

423

System integration issues of residential solar photovoltaic systems  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The objective of this study is to evaluate the economic effects of residential solar PV systems on the utility's revenue, capacity, and energy requirements from the electric utility's perspective and to estimate the price that it might pay for surplus energy compared to what it would charge for deficits. The power and energy generated by the solar PV systems reduce the capital and operating costs that would otherwise be incurred by the utility. These avoided costs suggest what the utility might pay for surplus solar PV energy. The avoided costs are evaluated under three integration hypotheses, namely: (1) the utility has no system storage, (2) the utility has system storage, and (3) the solar PV systems are supported by dedicated storage devices, the purpose of which is to minimize sales to and purchases from the utility. Findings are reported in detail. (WHK)

Yamayee, Z.A.; Peschon, J.

1980-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

424

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - Regional and National Integration  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

system technologies requires a team approach across NREL's science and technology and market analysis teams. The laboratory's market analysis helps increase the use of renewable...

425

Verification of a Mesoscale Data-Assimilation and Forecasting System for the Oklahoma City Area during the Joint Urban 2003 Field Project  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command have developed a multiscale, rapid-cycling, real-time, four-dimensional data-assimilation and forecasting system that has been in operational use at ...

Yubao Liu; Fei Chen; Thomas Warner; Jeffrey Basara

2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

426

A Comparison of Skill between Two Versions of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and CPC’s Operational Short-Lead Seasonal Outlooks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Analyses of the relative prediction skills of NOAA’s Climate Forecast System versions 1 and 2 (CFSv1 and CFSv2, respectively), and the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) operational seasonal outlook, are conducted over the 15-yr common period ...

Peitao Peng; Anthony G. Barnston; Arun Kumar

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

427

ECMWF Seminar on Diagnosis of Forecasting and Data Assimilation Systems, 7-10 September 2009 205 The Use of Tracers as Diagnostics for Model Development  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

emissions of CFCs and SF6 are often related to the `electrical power grid distributions); tropospheric #12ECMWF Seminar on Diagnosis of Forecasting and Data Assimilation Systems, 7-10 September 2009 205/sinks and incomplete observational data sets. In addition, the importance of models' transport capabilities vis

428

Perspectives on integrating the US radioactive waste disposal system  

SciTech Connect

The waste management systems being developed and deployed by the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is large, complex, decentralized, and long term. As a result, a systems integration approach has been implemented by OCRWM. The fundamentals of systems integration and its application are examined in the context of the OCRWM program. This application is commendable, and some additional systems integration features are suggested to enhance its benefits. 6 refs., 1 fig.

Culler, F.L. (Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (USA)); Croff, A.G. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA))

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

429

Freeway Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting by Considering Traffic Volatility Dynamics and Missing Data Situations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Short-term traffic flow forecasting is a critical function in advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) and advanced traveler information systems (ATIS). Accurate forecasting results are useful to indicate future traffic conditions and assist traffic managers in seeking solutions to congestion problems on urban freeways and surface streets. There is new research interest in short-term traffic flow forecasting due to recent developments in ITS technologies. Previous research involves technologies in multiple areas, and a significant number of forecasting methods exist in literature. However, forecasting reliability is not properly addressed in existing studies. Most forecasting methods only focus on the expected value of traffic flow, assuming constant variance when perform forecasting. This method does not consider the volatility nature of traffic flow data. This paper demonstrated that the variance part of traffic flow data is not constant, and dependency exists. A volatility model studies the dependency among the variance part of traffic flow data and provides a prediction range to indicate the reliability of traffic flow forecasting. We proposed an ARIMA-GARCH (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average- AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) model to study the volatile nature of traffic flow data. Another problem of existing studies is that most methods have limited forecasting abilities when there is missing data in historical or current traffic flow data. We developed a General Regression Neural Network(GRNN) based multivariate forecasting method to deal with this issue. This method uses upstream information to predict traffic flow at the studied site. The study results indicate that the ARIMA-GARCH model outperforms other methods in non-missing data situations, while the GRNN model performs better in missing data situations.

Zhang, Yanru

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

430

Systems Engineering and Integration: Decision Applications: D, Decision  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Systems Engineering and Integration Home Systems Engineering and Integration Home CONTACTS Group Leader Julianna Fessenden-Rahn Deputy Group Leader Vacant Office Administrator Lorraine Johnson d division logo image Systems Engineering and Integration The Systems Engineering & Integration Group (D-3) helps policy-makers anticipate and respond to constantly evolving weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and natural threats on local and global scales-from chemical, biological, radiological, and explosive (CBRE) events to catastrophic natural disasters. We provide scientific, systematic, and integrated decision support in these areas: prevention preparation characterization response recovery public health protection We develop and deploy comprehensive, integrated CBRE and wide-area surveillance systems, using system-of-systems architectures and technologies. reactor

431

A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-02-23T23:59:59.000Z

432

Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract--In deregulated electricity markets, short-term load forecasting is important for reliable power322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting presents a similar day-based wavelet neural network method to forecast tomorrow's load. The idea

Tesfatsion, Leigh

433

Forecasting in Meteorology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Public weather forecasting heralded the beginning of modern meteorology less than 150 years ago. Since then, meteorology has been largely a forecasting discipline. Thus, forecasting could have easily been used to test and develop hypotheses, ...

C. S. Ramage

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

434

Evaluation of Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Time-Lagged Multimodel Ensemble  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) and probabilistic QPFs (PQPFs) are investigated for a time-lagged multimodel ensemble forecast system. One of the advantages of such an ensemble forecast system is its low-cost generation of ...

Huiling Yuan; Chungu Lu; John A. McGinley; Paul J. Schultz; Brian D. Jamison; Linda Wharton; Christopher J. Anderson

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

Recent content in Energy Systems Integration | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Recent content in Energy Systems Integration Recent content in Energy Systems Integration Home Name Post date sort icon Type Energy Systems Integration: A Convergence of Ideas Aaronbeach 8 Aug 2012 - 11:44 Document Energy Forms or Energy Carriers(G, Herrmann et al. 1983) Qinsun 15 Nov 2012 - 10:28 Document Optimal Power Flow of Multiple Energy Carriers(Geidl and Andersson 2007) Qinsun 15 Nov 2012 - 13:04 Document Integrated Energy Systems (IES) for Buildings: A Market Assessment(LeMar 2002) Qinsun 15 Nov 2012 - 13:05 Document Energy System Integration(Smith 2001) Qinsun 15 Nov 2012 - 13:09 Document A Framework for the Optimization of Integrated Energy Systems(Jain and Alleyne 2012) Qinsun 15 Nov 2012 - 13:19 Document Prospects for Nuclear Power(Davis 2012) Qinsun 15 Nov 2012 - 13:36 Document

436

Solar future: 1978. [Market forecast to 1992  

SciTech Connect

The growth in sales of solar heating equipment is discussed. Some forecasts are made for the continued market growth of collectors, pool systems, and photovoltaics. (MOW)

Butt, S.H.

1978-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

437

Renewable Electrolysis Integrated Systems Development and Testing...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

integrated renewable hydrogen demonstration project to support industry innovation and DOE Technology Validation goals. Technical Barriers This project addresses the following...

438

Application of Ontology-Based Information Integration on BI System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, due to the demand of heterogeneous data sources integration issue in Business Intelligent system, an ontology-based information integration middleware is designed, in which uses semantic description as a tool to map heterogeneous data ... Keywords: ontology, information integration, business intelligence, OWL

Gang Tong; Yaohua Sun; Jun Tang; Kesheng Qin

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

Simulation of Geomagnetic/Inertial Integrated Navigation System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In order to optimize the algorithm of geomagnetic/inertial integrated navigation, we establish platform of geomagnetic/inertial integrated navigation System, and study the geomagnetic matching location approach based on ICCP algorithm and MSD algorithm, ... Keywords: Geomagnetic/Inertial Integrated Navigation, Geomagnetic Matching, ICCP algorithm, MSD algorithm, Kalman filter

Zhou Yingying; Zhang Yanshun; Guo Lei

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

440

System/Building Tech Integration | Clean Energy | ORNL  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Light commercial building flexible research platforms (FRP's) Computer modeling, visualization, analytics SystemsBuilding Integration Group Leader Melissa Lapsa 865.576.8620...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Power Electronic Thermal System Performance and Integration (Presentation)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This presentation gives an overview of the status and FY09 accomplishments for the NREL Power Electronic Thermal System Performance and Integration Project.

Bennion, K.

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Integrated Building Energy and Control Systems: Challenges, Needs...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

EETD Safety Program Development Contact Us Department Contacts Media Contacts Integrated Building Energy and Control Systems: Challenges, Needs and Opportunities Speaker(s):...

443

Integrating Photovoltaic Systems into Low-Income Housing Developments...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Residential Financing Model and Low-Income Resident Job Training Program SEPTEMBER 2011 SOLAR ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES PROGRAM II Integrating PV Systems into Low-Income Housing...

444

CVG-venalum Potline Control and Supervisory Integrated System ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To fulfill these targets, CVG-Venalum developed an aluminum reduction pot control and supervisory integrated system (VEN-PCSIS). The central control unit of ...

445

PNNLs integrated systems biology approach to understanding the...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

PNNLs integrated systems biology approach to understanding the effects of exposure to low doses of ionizing radiation William F. Morgan, Biological Sciences Division, Pacific...

446

PNNLs integrated systems biology approach to understanding the...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

PNNLs integrated systems biology approach to understanding the effects of exposure to low doses of ionizing radiation William F. Morgan Pacific Northwest National Laboratory...

447

Power Electronic Thermal System Performance and Integration (Presentation)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Thermal control is a critical factor in power electronics equipment. NREL aims to integrate and improve thermal system performance in power electronics.

Bennion, K.

2007-11-08T23:59:59.000Z

448

Consensus Forecasts of Modeled Wave Parameters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The use of numerical guidance has become integral to the process of modern weather forecasting. Using various techniques, postprocessing of numerical model output has been shown to mitigate some of the deficiencies of these models, producing more ...

Tom H. Durrant; Frank Woodcock; Diana J. M. Greenslade

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

449

The ENIAC Forecasts: A Re-creation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The numerical forecasts made in 1950 using the Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer (ENIAC) paved the way for the remarkable advances that have been made over the past half-century in weather prediction and climate modeling. We review the ...

Peter Lynch

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

450

Integrated Energy Systems International Ltd | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Energy Systems International Ltd Energy Systems International Ltd Jump to: navigation, search Name Integrated Energy Systems International Ltd Place United Kingdom Zip PR1 2NL Sector Biomass Product UK-based firm which operates in energy technology management and cost control. The firm is working with International Paper on a biomass project. References Integrated Energy Systems International Ltd[1] LinkedIn Connections CrunchBase Profile No CrunchBase profile. Create one now! This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. Integrated Energy Systems International Ltd is a company located in United Kingdom . References ↑ "Integrated Energy Systems International Ltd" Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Integrated_Energy_Systems_International_Ltd&oldid=347005"

451

Forecasting project progress and early warning of project overruns with probabilistic methods  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a critical component of project management. Project managers must be able to make reliable predictions about the final duration and cost of projects starting from project inception. Such predictions need to be revised and compared with the project’s objectives to obtain early warnings against potential problems. Therefore, the effectiveness of project controls relies on the capability of project managers to make reliable forecasts in a timely manner. This dissertation focuses on forecasting project schedule progress with probabilistic methods. Currently available methods, for example, the critical path method (CPM) and earned value management (EVM) are deterministic and fail to account for the inherent uncertainty in forecasting and project performance. The objective of this dissertation is to improve the predictive capabilities of project managers by developing probabilistic forecasting methods that integrate all relevant information and uncertainties into consistent forecasts in a mathematically sound procedure usable in practice. In this dissertation, two probabilistic methods, the Kalman filter forecasting method (KFFM) and the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method (BAFM), were developed. The KFFM and the BAFM have the following advantages over the conventional methods: (1) They are probabilistic methods that provide prediction bounds on predictions; (2) They are integrative methods that make better use of the prior performance information available from standard construction management practices and theories; and (3) They provide a systematic way of incorporating measurement errors into forecasting. The accuracy and early warning capacity of the KFFM and the BAFM were also evaluated and compared against the CPM and a state-of-the-art EVM schedule forecasting method. Major conclusions from this research are: (1) The state-of-the-art EVM schedule forecasting method can be used to obtain reliable warnings only after the project performance has stabilized; (2) The CPM is not capable of providing early warnings due to its retrospective nature; (3) The KFFM and the BAFM can and should be used to forecast progress and to obtain reliable early warnings of all projects; and (4) The early warning capacity of forecasting methods should be evaluated and compared in terms of the timeliness and reliability of warning in the context of formal early warning systems.

Kim, Byung Cheol

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

Forecasting project progress and early warning of project overruns with probabilistic methods  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a critical component of project management. Project managers must be able to make reliable predictions about the final duration and cost of projects starting from project inception. Such predictions need to be revised and compared with the project's objectives to obtain early warnings against potential problems. Therefore, the effectiveness of project controls relies on the capability of project managers to make reliable forecasts in a timely manner. This dissertation focuses on forecasting project schedule progress with probabilistic methods. Currently available methods, for example, the critical path method (CPM) and earned value management (EVM) are deterministic and fail to account for the inherent uncertainty in forecasting and project performance. The objective of this dissertation is to improve the predictive capabilities of project managers by developing probabilistic forecasting methods that integrate all relevant information and uncertainties into consistent forecasts in a mathematically sound procedure usable in practice. In this dissertation, two probabilistic methods, the Kalman filter forecasting method (KFFM) and the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method (BAFM), were developed. The KFFM and the BAFM have the following advantages over the conventional methods: (1) They are probabilistic methods that provide prediction bounds on predictions; (2) They are integrative methods that make better use of the prior performance information available from standard construction management practices and theories; and (3) They provide a systematic way of incorporating measurement errors into forecasting. The accuracy and early warning capacity of the KFFM and the BAFM were also evaluated and compared against the CPM and a state-of-the-art EVM schedule forecasting method. Major conclusions from this research are: (1) The state-of-the-art EVM schedule forecasting method can be used to obtain reliable warnings only after the project performance has stabilized; (2) The CPM is not capable of providing early warnings due to its retrospective nature; (3) The KFFM and the BAFM can and should be used to forecast progress and to obtain reliable early warnings of all projects; and (4) The early warning capacity of forecasting methods should be evaluated and compared in terms of the timeliness and reliability of warning in the context of formal early warning systems.

Kim, Byung Cheol

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

453

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

454

Buildings to Grid Integration Technical Meeting: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Energy Systems Integration Facility, Golden, CO  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Buildings to Grid Integration Buildings to Grid Integration Technical Meeting: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Energy Systems Integration Facility Golden, CO December 2012 1 WELCOME Welcome to the Buildings to Grid Integration Technical Meeting and to Golden, Colorado. On behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy Building Technologies Program, I would like to thank you for attending and for your active participation. I look forward to meeting you and hearing your perspective on enabling significant buildings to grid integration. Everyone is here because we are working to make efficient transactions between buildings and the grid a commercial reality, whether it is through

455

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range

456

Modeling for System Integration Studies (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation describes some the data requirements needed for grid integration modeling and provides real-world examples of such data and its format. Renewable energy integration studies evaluate the operational impacts of variable generation. Transmission planning studies investigate where new transmission is needed to transfer energy from generation sources to load centers. Both use time-synchronized wind and solar energy production and load as inputs. Both examine high renewable energy penetration scenarios in the future.

Orwig, K. D.

2012-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

457

An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study  

SciTech Connect

This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

2011-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

458

Multiresolution Ensemble Forecasts of an Observed Tornadic Thunderstorm System. Part I: Comparsion of Coarse- and Fine-Grid Experiments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using a nonhydrostatic numerical model with horizontal grid spacing of 24 km and nested grids of 6- and 3-km spacing, the authors employ the scaled lagged average forecasting (SLAF) technique, developed originally for global and synoptic-scale ...

Fanyou Kong; Kelvin K. Droegemeier; Nicki L. Hickmon

2006-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

459

An Objective Comparison of Model Output Statistics and “Perfect Prog” Systems in Producing Numerical Weather Element Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The “perfect prog” (PP) and model output statistics (MOS) approaches were used to develop multiple linear regression equations to forecast probabilities of more than a trace of precipitation over 6-h periods, probabilities of precipitation ...

N. Brunet; R. Verret; N. Yacowar

1988-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

460

Computerized Maintenance Management System and Maintenance Work Process Integration  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) is an information and communication tool supporting the maintenance work process within an industrial plant. Though these types of systems are found in various industries, no report has existed describing CMMS integration within a utility environment. This guideline describes how to integrate a CMMS with the methods, procedures, work processes, and overall maintenance in a power plant.

1998-04-29T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Modelling integrated waste management system of the Czech Republic  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The paper is devoted to environmental modelling, particularly modelling of Integrated Municipal Solid Waste Management Systems at the Czech Republic (IMSWMS). There are considered input macroeconomic variables (landfills fees, price of electricity, tax ... Keywords: environmental modelling, integrated waste management system, municipal solid waste, waste management modelling

Jiri Hrebicek; Jana Soukopova

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

462

Integrated alarm annunciation and entry control systems -- Survey results  

SciTech Connect

This report provides the results and analyses of a detailed survey undertaken in Summer 1993 to address integrated intrusion detection alarm annunciation and entry control system issues. This survey was undertaken as a first attempt toward beginning to answer questions about integrated systems and commercial capabilities to meet or partially meet US Department of Energy (DOE) site needs.

Clever, J.J.; Arakaki, L.H.; Monaco, F.M.; Juarros, L.E.; Quintana, G.R.

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

The Warning Decision Support System–Integrated Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Warning Decision Support System–Integrated Information (WDSS-II) is the second generation of a system of tools for the analysis, diagnosis, and visualization of remotely sensed weather data. WDSS-II provides a number of automated algorithms ...

Valliappa Lakshmanan; Travis Smith; Gregory Stumpf; Kurt Hondl

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

464

Shipboard condition based maintenance and integrated power system initiatives  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

With the U.S. Navy's continued focus on developing and implementing a robust integrated power system aboard future combatants, there has been an ever increasing effort to guarantee an electrical distribution system that ...

Barber, Darrin E. (Darrin Eugene)

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

465

System/Building Tech Integration | Clean Energy | ORNL  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

System/Building Integration System/Building Integration SHARE System Building Technologies Integration ZEBRAlliance home The buildings industry encompasses numerous designers, builders, construction materials and components manufacturers, distributors, dealers, and other vendors and service providers. Whether coming together for new construction or retrofitting established structures, these stakeholders often face research limitations and challenges when integrating components, equipment, and systems. This is especially true for anything that is new. System/Building Integration provides the means for our industry partners to work out the wrinkles in their new products in low-risk, realistic test bed environments before market introduction. In ORNL's residential and light commercial building test beds, in addition to natural exposure to weather,

466

Energy System Integration(Smith 2001) | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Energy System Integration(Smith 2001) Energy System Integration(Smith 2001) Home > Groups > Energy Systems Integration Qinsun's picture Submitted by Qinsun(35) Member 15 November, 2012 - 13:09 Literature Review This paper proposed the business analysis on energy system integration. It provided a procedure for the business analysis, and listed related techniques and technologies. It can be view as a first approach of business analysis on ESI The method used in the paper is Process Optimization Audit and One-Line Balance The paper financially analyzed ESI It did not provide clear definition No result is provided. Groups: Energy Systems Integration Login to post comments Latest documents Qinsun Research topics related to ESI Posted: 15 Nov 2012 - 13:55 by Qinsun Qinsun Prospects for Nuclear Power(Davis 2012)

467

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

468

Tornado Pathlength Forecasts from 2010 to 2011 Using Ensemble Updraft Helicity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Examining forecasts from the Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF) system run by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms for the 2010 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment, recent research diagnosed a strong ...

Adam J. Clark; Jidong Gao; Patrick T. Marsh; Travis Smith; John S. Kain; James Correia Jr.; Ming Xue; Fanyou Kong

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

469

The Role of Vortex and Environment Errors in Genesis Forecasts of Hurricanes Danielle and Karl (2010)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) forecasts initialized from a cycling ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) system is used to evaluate the sensitivity of Hurricanes Danielle and Karl’s (2010) genesis forecasts to vortex and ...

Ryan D. Torn; David Cook

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

470

Real &me numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading using large-scale computa&onal models  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Real &me numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading using large conditions). Forecast = best prediction given the present knowledge on the system. Projection = attempt functionalities) #12;Real time forecast for the H1N1pdm (2009) Key parameters

Cattuto, Ciro

471

N=2 supersymmetric gauge theories and quantum integrable systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We study N=2 supersymmetric gauge theories on the product of a two-sphere and a cylinder. We show that the low-energy dynamics of a BPS sector of such a theory is described by a quantum integrable system, with the Planck constant set by the inverse of the radius of the sphere. If the sphere is replaced with a hemisphere, then our system reduces to an integrable system of the type studied by Nekrasov and Shatashvili. In this case we establish a correspondence between the effective prepotential of the gauge theory and the Yang-Yang function of the integrable system.

Yuan Luo; Meng-Chwan Tan; Junya Yagi

2013-10-02T23:59:59.000Z

472

N=2 supersymmetric gauge theories and quantum integrable systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We study N=2 supersymmetric gauge theories on the product of a two-sphere and a cylinder. We show that the low-energy dynamics of a BPS sector of such a theory is described by a quantum integrable system, with the Planck constant set by the inverse of the radius of the sphere. If the sphere is replaced with a hemisphere, then our system reduces to an integrable system of the type studied by Nekrasov and Shatashvili. In this case we establish a correspondence between the effective prepotential of the gauge theory and the Yang-Yang function of the integrable system.

Luo, Yuan; Yagi, Junya

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

473

Integrated Retail & Wholesale Power System Operation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Aliprantis & Leigh Tesfatsion Last Revised: 10 August 2010 1 #12;EPRC-DOE/PNNL Combined Project: Integrated Advisors: David Chassin (DOE/PNNL, Richland, WA) & GridLAB-D Team (PNNL) Todd Hillman and Nivad Navid (MISO Thomas (EPRC Support, ECpE M.S. Student, ISU) Huan Zhao (DOE/PNNL Support, Econ PhD Student, ISU) Start

Tesfatsion, Leigh

474

Forecasts, Meteorology Services, Environmental Sciences Department  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Short Term Forecast Suffolk County Northern Nassau Southern Nassau Area Forecast Discussion - OKX Area Forecast Discussion - NYS Area Forecast Discussion Mount Holly Area...

475

Wind integration into hydro dominant Power System.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??The Icelandic Power System is a hydro dominant system where approximately 75 % of the electricity generation is hydro based. However due to transmission constraints… (more)

Thorleiksson, Johannes

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

476

NREL: Energy Systems Integration - Seminar Series  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

path of the power system of the future. Economic and Environmental Optimization of Microgrids Learn about a systemic approach for optimal building energy service provision using...

477

Extreme wave events during hurricanes can seriously jeopardize the integrity and safety of offshore oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Validation of wave forecast for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Validation of wave forecast for significant wave heights over the warm Gulf of Mexico water between 26 and 28 August, and became a category 5 hurricane by 1200 OF WAVES AND CURRENTS IN HURRICANE KATRINA BY DONG-PING WANG AND LIE-YAUW OEY FIG. 1. The Gulf of Mexico

478

Global Positioning System (GPS) Precipitable Water in Forecasting Lightning at Spaceport Canaveral  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper evaluates the use of precipitable water (PW) from the global positioning system (GPS) in lightning prediction. Additional independent verification of an earlier model is performed. This earlier model used binary logistic regression ...

Kristen Kehrer; Brian Graf; William P. Roeder

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

479

Predictability of the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System: Predictability of the Space of Uncertainties  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of an ensemble prediction system is inherently flow dependent. This paper investigates the flow dependence of the ensemble performance with the help of linear diagnostics applied to the ensemble perturbations in a small local ...

Elizabeth Satterfield; Istvan Szunyogh

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

480

Toward a Monitoring and Forecasting System For Atmospheric Composition: The GEMS Project  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Global and Regional Earth System Monitoring Using Satellite and In Situ Data (GEMS) project is combining the manifold expertise in atmospheric composition research and numerical weather prediction of 32 European institutes to build a ...

A. Hollingsworth; R. J. Engelen; A. Benedetti; A. Dethof; J. Flemming; J. W. Kaiser; J-J. Morcrette; A. J. Simmons; C. Textor; O. Boucher; F. Chevallier; P. Rayner; H. Elbern; H. Eskes; C. Granier; V-H. Peuch; L. Rouil; M. G. Schultz

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "integrated forecasting system" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

Integration of EBS Models with Generic Disposal System Models | Department  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Integration of EBS Models with Generic Disposal System Models Integration of EBS Models with Generic Disposal System Models Integration of EBS Models with Generic Disposal System Models This report summarizes research activities on engineered barrier system (EBS) model integration with the generic disposal system model (GDSM), and used fuel degradation and radionuclide mobilization (RM) in support of the EBS evaluation and tool development within the Used Fuel Disposition campaign. This report addresses: predictive model capability for used nuclear fuel degradation based on electrochemical and thermodynamic principles, radiolysis model to evaluate the U(VI)-H2O-CO2 system, steps towards the evaluation of uranium alteration products, discussion of instant release fraction (IRF) of radionuclides from the nuclear fuel, and

482

Integration of EBS Models with Generic Disposal System Models | Department  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Integration of EBS Models with Generic Disposal System Models Integration of EBS Models with Generic Disposal System Models Integration of EBS Models with Generic Disposal System Models This report summarizes research activities on engineered barrier system (EBS) model integration with the generic disposal system model (GDSM), and used fuel degradation and radionuclide mobilization (RM) in support of the EBS evaluation and tool development within the Used Fuel Disposition campaign. This report addresses: predictive model capability for used nuclear fuel degradation based on electrochemical and thermodynamic principles, radiolysis model to evaluate the U(VI)-H2O-CO2 system, steps towards the evaluation of uranium alteration products, discussion of instant release fraction (IRF) of radionuclides from the nuclear fuel, and

483

Communication Systems for Grid Integration of Renewable Energy Resources  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

There is growing interest in renewable energy around the world. Since most renewable sources are intermittent in nature, it is a challenging task to integrate renewable energy resources into the power grid infrastructure. In this grid integration, communication systems are crucial technologies, which enable the accommodation of distributed renewable energy generation and play extremely important role in monitoring, operating, and protecting both renewable energy generators and power systems. In this paper, we review some communication technologies available for grid integration of renewable energy resources. Then, we present the communication systems used in a real renewable energy project, Bear Mountain Wind Farm (BMW) in British Columbia, Canada. In addition, we present the communication systems used in Photovoltaic Power Systems (PPS). Finally, we outline some research challenges and possible solutions about the communication systems for grid integration of renewable energy resources.

Yu, F Richard; Xiao, Weidong; Choudhury, Paul

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

484

Performance of Integrated Systems of Automated Roller Shade Systems and Daylight Responsive Dimming Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Daylight responsive dimming systems have been used in few buildings to date because they require improvements to improve reliability. The key underlying factor contributing to poor performance is the variability of the ratio of the photosensor signal to daylight workplane illuminance in accordance with sun position, sky condition, and fenestration condition. Therefore, this paper describes the integrated systems between automated roller shade systems and daylight responsive dimming systems with an improved closed-loop proportional control algorithm, and the relative performance of the integrated systems and single systems. The concept of the improved closed-loop proportional control algorithm for the integrated systems is to predict the varying correlation of photosensor signal to daylight workplane illuminance according to roller shade height and sky conditions for improvement of the system accuracy. In this study, the performance of the integrated systems with two improved closed-loop proportional control algorithms was compared with that of the current (modified) closed-loop proportional control algorithm. In the results, the average maintenance percentage and the average discrepancies of the target illuminance, as well as the average time under 90percent of target illuminance for the integrated systems significantly improved in comparison with the current closed-loop proportional control algorithm for daylight responsive dimming systems as a single system.

Park, Byoung-Chul; Choi, An-Seop; Jeong, Jae-Weon; Lee, Eleanor S.

2010-07-08T23:59:59.000Z

485

Model documentation: electricity market module. [15 year forecasts  

SciTech Connect

This report documents the electricity market model. This model is a component of the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), the energy market model used to provide projections of energy markets up to 15 years into the future. The electricity market model was developed by the Supply Analysis and Integration Branch as part of building the larger system. This report is written for an audience consisting of mathematical economists, statisticians, operations research analysts, and utility planners. This report contains an overview and a mathematical specification of the electricity market module. It includes a description of the model logic and the individual subroutines in the computer code. A companion document Intermediate Future Forecasting System: Executive Summary (DOE/EIA-430) provides an overview of the components in IFFS and their linkages. 22 figures, 2 tables.

Sanders, R.C.; Murphy, F.H.

1984-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

486

Embedded automatic parking management system based on RFID and existed gate system integration  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, an Embedded Automatic Parking Management System (EAPMS) that integrates the existed gate system and RFID is proposed. This system includes Embedded Gate Hardware, Gate-PC Controller, RFID System, Parking Management Platform. Most systems ... Keywords: RFID, embedded, parking management, system integration

Ming-Shen Jian; Kuen Shiuh Yang; Chung-Lun Lee; Nan-Yuan Huang

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

487