Sample records for integrated forecasting model

  1. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL

  2. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  3. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN with primary contributions in the area of decision support for reservoir planning and management Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project

  4. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN: California Energy Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH Martha

  5. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible for Renewable Energy: Grid IntegrationReport AvailableForecasting NREL researchers use

  6. timber quality Modelling and forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe M E F Y Q U E #12;Valuing and the UK ­ are working closely together to develop a model to help forecast timber growth, yield, quality

  7. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    has developed longterm forecasts of transportation energy demand as well as projected ranges of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts makeCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY

  8. Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gratton, Claudio

    Analysis Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production T), University of Lome, 114 Rue Agbalepedogan, BP: 20679, Lome, Togo e Center for Agricultural & Energy Policy model of potential biomass supply that incorporates the effect of biological control on crop choice

  9. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make assumptions about fuel price forecastsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY ENERGY COMMISSION Gordon Schremp, Jim Page, and Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Principal Authors Jim Page Project

  10. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  11. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  12. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  13. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  14. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  15. AN APPLICATION OF URBANSIM TO THE AUSTIN, TEXAS REGION: INTEGRATED-MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE YEAR 2030

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kockelman, Kara M.

    , as well as energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. This work describes the modeling of year-2030 policies significantly impact the region's future land use patterns, traffic conditions, greenhouse gas (emitting over 6 billion metric tons of CO2-equivalents annually, and accounting for 22.2% of the world

  16. Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

  17. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean...

  18. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  19. New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind characteristics (mainly speed and direction) in wind parks connected to a power grid. Renyi's Entropy is combined

  20. A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

  1. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural dedicated models to forecast the 12 individual months directly. Results indicate better performance is superior to naïve forecasts based on persistence and seasonality, and is better than results quoted

  2. Forecasting model of the PEPCO service area economy. Volume 3

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1984-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Volume III describes and documents the regional economic model of the PEPCO service area which was relied upon to develop many of the assumptions of future values of economic and demographic variables used in the forecast. The PEPCO area model is mathematically linked to the Wharton long-term forecast of the U.S. Volume III contains a technical discussion of the structure of the regional model and presents the regional economic forecast.

  3. Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lang, K.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    capital requirements and research and development programs in the alum inum industry. : CONCLUSIONS Forecasting the use of conservation techndlo gies with a market penetration model provides la more accountable method of projecting aggrega...

  4. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  5. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  6. A model for short term electric load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tigue, John Robert

    1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

  7. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  8. Depositional sequences and integrated recovery efficiency forecast models for San Andres and Clearfork Units in the Central Basin Platform and the Northern Shelf, west Texas

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shao, Hongbin

    1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    models of primary, initial waterflood and infill drilling are developed for the San Andres and Clearfork reservoirs in Central Basin Platform and the Northern Shelf, west Texas. The geological parameters and well spacing are considered major factors...

  9. Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Statton, James Cody

    2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

    . This study suggests a type curve is most useful when 24 months or less is available to forecast. The SEPD model generally provides more conservative forecasts and EUR estimates than Arps' model with a minimum decline rate of 5%....

  10. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  11. Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    the chance of winds high enough to pose dangers for boats or aircraft. In situations calling for a cost/loss analysis, the probabilities of different outcomes need to be known. For wind speed, this issue often arisesProbabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc

  12. Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    February 24, 2006 1J. McLean Sloughter is Graduate Research Assistant, Adrian E. Raftery is BlumsteinProbabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging J. McLean Sloughter, Adrian E. Raftery and Tilmann Gneiting 1 Department of Statistics, University of Washington

  13. Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    : J. McLean Sloughter, Department of Mathematics, Seattle University, 901 12th Ave., P.O. Box 222000Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN SLOUGHTER Seattle University, Seattle, Washington TILMANN GNEITING Heidelberg University, Heidelberg

  14. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanistic–empirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  15. Development, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real-time forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    can the forecasts completely cover the evolution of earthquake-generated tsunami waves: generationDevelopment, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models (forecast models) for use in NOAA's tsunami forecast

  16. EWEC 2006 Scientific Track Advanced Forecast Systems for the Grid Integration of 25 GW

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    forecasts, smoothing effects Abstract The economic success of offshore wind farms in liberalised electricity of offshore wind farms, their electricity production must be known well in advance to allow an efficient Oldenburg, Germany Key words: Offshore wind power, grid integration, short-term prediction, regional

  17. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28T23:59:59.000Z

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  18. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  19. A first large-scale flood inundation forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schumann, Guy J-P; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Voisin, Nathalie; Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Pappenberger, Florian; Phanthuwongpakdee, Kay; Hall, Amanda C.; Bates, Paul D.

    2013-11-04T23:59:59.000Z

    At present continental to global scale flood forecasting focusses on predicting at a point discharge, with little attention to the detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation is actually the variable of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a first large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas and at continental scales. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River in southeast Africa to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. The inundation model domain has a surface area of approximately 170k km2. ECMWF meteorological data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) macro-scale hydrological model which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of the 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of many river channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst at the same time representing the floodplain at an appropriate and efficient scale. The modeling system was first calibrated using water levels on the main channel from the ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimeter and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of about 1 km (one model resolution) compared to an observed flood edge of the event. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km2. However, initial model test runs in forecast mode revealed that it is crucial to account for basin-wide hydrological response time when assessing lead time performances notwithstanding structural limitations in the hydrological model and possibly large inaccuracies in precipitation data.

  20. Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system “breaking points”, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.

  1. Traffic congestion forecasting model for the INFORM System. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Azarm, A.; Mughabghab, S.; Stock, D.

    1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes a computerized traffic forecasting model, developed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for a portion of the Long Island INFORM Traffic Corridor. The model has gone through a testing phase, and currently is able to make accurate traffic predictions up to one hour forward in time. The model will eventually take on-line traffic data from the INFORM system roadway sensors and make projections as to future traffic patterns, thus allowing operators at the New York State Department of Transportation (D.O.T.) INFORM Traffic Management Center to more optimally manage traffic. It can also form the basis of a travel information system. The BNL computer model developed for this project is called ATOP for Advanced Traffic Occupancy Prediction. The various modules of the ATOP computer code are currently written in Fortran and run on PC computers (pentium machine) faster than real time for the section of the INFORM corridor under study. The following summarizes the various routines currently contained in the ATOP code: Statistical forecasting of traffic flow and occupancy using historical data for similar days and time (long term knowledge), and the recent information from the past hour (short term knowledge). Estimation of the empirical relationships between traffic flow and occupancy using long and short term information. Mechanistic interpolation using macroscopic traffic models and based on the traffic flow and occupancy forecasted (item-1), and the empirical relationships (item-2) for the specific highway configuration at the time of simulation (construction, lane closure, etc.). Statistical routine for detection and classification of anomalies and their impact on the highway capacity which are fed back to previous items.

  2. Volatility Forecasts in Financial Time Series with HMM-GARCH Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Yiling

    Volatility Forecasts in Financial Time Series with HMM-GARCH Models Xiong-Fei Zhuang and Lai {xfzhuang,lwchan}@cse.cuhk.edu.hk Abstract. Nowadays many researchers use GARCH models to generate of the two parameters G1 and A1[1], in GARCH models is usually too high. Since volatility forecasts in GARCH

  3. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  4. Model bias correction for dust storm forecast using ensemble Kalman filter

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Model bias correction for dust storm forecast using ensemble Kalman filter Caiyan Lin,1,2 Jiang Zhu Kalman filter (EnKF) assimilation targeting heavy dust episodes during the period of 15­24 March 2002. Wang (2008), Model bias correction for dust storm forecast using ensemble Kalman filter, J. Geophys

  5. Forthcoming: Journal of Applied Business and Economics (2011) Integrating Financial Statement Modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forthcoming: Journal of Applied Business and Economics (2011) Integrating Financial Statement Modeling and Sales Forecasting Using EViews John T. Cuddington Colorado School of Mines Irina Khindanova of the financial forecasts. INTRODUCTION In most business school programs students are exposed to financial

  6. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  7. Econometric model and futures markets commodity price forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Just, Richard E.; Rausser, Gordon C.

    1979-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Versus CCll1rnercial Econometric M:ldels." Uni- versity ofWorking Paper No. 72 ECONOMETRIC ! 'econometric forecasts with the futures

  8. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  9. Development and Evaluation of a Coupled Photosynthesis-Based Gas Exchange Evapotranspiration Model (GEM) for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Applications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Niyogi, Dev

    (GEM) for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Applications DEV NIYOGI Department of Agronomy, and Department form 13 May 2008) ABSTRACT Current land surface schemes used for mesoscale weather forecast models use model (GEM) as a land surface scheme for mesoscale weather forecasting model applications. The GEM

  10. Extendedrange seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid dynamicalstatistical model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Peter J.

    Extendedrange seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid 20 September 2010; published 9 November 2010. [1] A hybrid forecast model for seasonal hurricane between the number of seasonal hurricane and the large scale variables from ECMWF hindcasts. The increase

  11. Calibration of a Distributed Flood Forecasting Model with Input Uncertainty Using a Bayesian Framework

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hubbard, Susan

    Calibration of a Distributed Flood Forecasting Model with Input Uncertainty Using a Bayesian, Berkeley, CA, United States. In the process of calibrating distributed hydrological models, accounting in calibrating GBHM parameters and in estimating their associated uncertainty. The calibration ignoring input

  12. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23T23:59:59.000Z

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  13. Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Xiaorong

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(GARCH...

  14. Absolute Percent Error Based Fitness Functions for Evolving Forecast Models AndyNovobilski,Ph.D.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernandez, Thomas

    Absolute Percent Error Based Fitness Functions for Evolving Forecast Models Andy computfi~gas a methodof data mining,is its intrinsic ability to drive modelselection accordingto a mixedset of criteria. Basedon natural selection, evolutionary computing utilizes evaluationof candidatesolutions

  15. A forecasting model of tourist arrivals from major markets to Thailand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hao, Ching

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    important to forecast tourism demand in the region and understand the factors affecting demand. Considering the national importance of tourism, Thailand was chosen as the destination country with nine major markets as the countries of origin. A model...

  16. Probabilistic Performance Forecasting for Unconventional Reservoirs With Stretched-Exponential Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Can, Bunyamin

    2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    a reserves-evaluation workflow that couples the traditional decline-curve analysis with a probabilistic forecasting frame. The stretched-exponential production decline model (SEPD) underpins the production behavior. Our recovery appraisal workflow...

  17. Efficient market model: within-sample fit versus out-of-sample forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cheng, Chi

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    has been the center of considerable attention in the applied econometric literature. The criterion Predictive Least Squares (PLS) based on actual postsample forecasting performance is proposed to identify a time series model. The criterion is applied...

  18. Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models for precipitation forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 799811 (2003) EGU

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models for precipitation forecasting 799 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 799811 (2003) © EGU Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models

  19. Forecasting the monthly volume of orders for southern pine lumber - an econometric model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jackson, Ben Douglas

    1973-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    the orders estimates should be minimal, and the benefits of forecasting should exceed the costs. Included in this matter of convenience is the mathematical simplicity of the computations and their evaluation. With these essential characteristics in mind... FORECASTING THE MONTHLY VOLUME OF ORDERS FOR SOUTHERN PINE LUMBER - AH ECONOMETRIC MODEL A Thesis by BEN DOUGLAS JACKSON Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in Partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree...

  20. Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peyraud, Lionel

    2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The importance of fog forecasting to the aviation community, to road transportation and to the public at large is irrefutable. The deadliest aviation accident in history was in fact partly a result of fog back on 27 March 1977. This has, along...

  1. Integrated Assessment Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Kim, Son H.; Wise, Marshall A.; McJeon, Haewon C.

    2012-10-31T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper discusses the role of Integrated Assessment models (IAMs) in climate change research. IAMs are an interdisciplinary research platform, which constitutes a consistent scientific framework in which the large-scale interactions between human and natural Earth systems can be examined. In so doing, IAMs provide insights that would otherwise be unavailable from traditional single-discipline research. By providing a broader view of the issue, IAMs constitute an important tool for decision support. IAMs are also a home of human Earth system research and provide natural Earth system scientists information about the nature of human intervention in global biogeophysical and geochemical processes.

  2. Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Douches, David S.

    Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use have come to expect. Potato late blight risk models were some of the earliest weather-based models. This analysis compares two types of potato late blight risk models that were originally trained on location

  3. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19T23:59:59.000Z

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (‘stochastic’) model with the weather forecast model (‘deterministic’) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  4. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to accurately forecast natural gas prices. Many policyseek alternative methods to forecast natural gas prices. Thethe accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported

  5. Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models Results of the Anemos Project

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    1 Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models ­ Results of the Anemos Project I. Martí1.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract An outstanding question posed today by end-users like power system operators, wind power producers or traders is what performance can be expected by state-of-the-art wind power prediction models. This paper

  6. Addressing model bias and uncertainty in three dimensional groundwater transport forecasts for a physical aquifer experiment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vermont, University of

    Addressing model bias and uncertainty in three dimensional groundwater transport forecasts, and D. M. Rizzo (2008), Addressing model bias and uncertainty in three dimensional groundwater transport. Introduction [2] Eigbe et al. [1998] provide an excellent review of groundwater applications of the linear

  7. Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN SLOUGHTER, ADRIAN E. RAFTERY, TILMANN GNEITING, AND CHRIS FRALEY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN SLOUGHTER, ADRIAN E. RAFTERY, TILMANN GNEITING, AND CHRIS FRALEY Department of Statistics, University of precipitation (PoP) forecasts using this approach. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) was introduced by Raftery et

  8. Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ribes, Aurélien

    Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting SAMUEL RE significant. This led to the implementation of an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) within COBEL-ISBA. The new by using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF; Evensen 1994, 2003). Theoreti- cally, ensemble filters

  9. Calibration of a distributed flood forecasting model with input uncertainty using a Bayesian framework

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hubbard, Susan

    Calibration of a distributed flood forecasting model with input uncertainty using a Bayesian; revised 20 June 2012; accepted 28 June 2012; published 15 August 2012. [1] In the process of calibrating that the developed method generally is effective in calibrating GBHM parameters and in estimating their associated

  10. Time series modeling and large scale global solar radiation forecasting from geostationary satellites data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    1 Time series modeling and large scale global solar radiation forecasting from geostationary global solar radiation. In this paper, we use geostationary satellites data to generate 2-D time series of solar radiation for the next hour. The results presented in this paper relate to a particular territory

  11. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Generator Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible for Renewable Energy: Grid IntegrationReport AvailableForecasting NREL researchers

  12. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  13. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  14. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  15. Stretched Exponential Decline Model as a Probabilistic and Deterministic Tool for Production Forecasting and Reserve Estimation in Oil and Gas Shales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Akbarnejad Nesheli, Babak

    2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

    stabilized production forecast than traditional DCA models and in this work it is shown that it produces unchanging EUR forecasts after only two-three years of production data are available in selected reservoirs, notably the Barnett Shale...

  16. FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake Erie

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake. The in- crease in computer power in recent years and advances in numerical mesoscale models of both ocean Forecasting System (GLCFS) can be used to validate wind forecasts for the Great Lakes using observed

  17. Steam System Forecasting and Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    '. This and the complex and integrated nature of the plants energy balance makes steam system forecasting and management essential for optimum use of the plant's energy. This paper discusses the method used by Union carbide to accomplish effective forecasting...

  18. Air pollution forecasting by coupled atmosphere-fire model WRF and SFIRE with WRF-Chem

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kochanski, Adam K; Mandel, Jan; Clements, Craig B

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Atmospheric pollution regulations have emerged as a dominant obstacle to prescribed burns. Thus, forecasting the pollution caused by wildland fires has acquired high importance. WRF and SFIRE model wildland fire spread in a two-way interaction with the atmosphere. The surface heat flux from the fire causes strong updrafts, which in turn change the winds and affect the fire spread. Fire emissions, estimated from the burning organic matter, are inserted in every time step into WRF-Chem tracers at the lowest atmospheric layer. The buoyancy caused by the fire then naturally simulates plume dynamics, and the chemical transport in WRF-Chem provides a forecast of the pollution spread. We discuss the choice of wood burning models and compatible chemical transport models in WRF-Chem, and demonstrate the results on case studies.

  19. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  20. Parametric inference and forecasting for continuously invertible volatility models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    recover known results on univariate and multivariate GARCH type models where the estima- tor coincides estimation, strong consistency, asymptotic normality, asymmetric GARCH, exponential GARCH, stochastic (1986), the General Au- toregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) type models have been

  1. Update On The Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast & Modeling Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ,877 Replacement #12;CO2 Emission Modeling § The AURORAxmp® electric market model calculates CO2 emission) Assumptions § CO2 emission modeling § Base Case Results § Scenario/Sensitivities § Emission Projections Database ­ eGRID 2012 Year 2009 ­ Emissions, including CO2, are estimated using information from various

  2. Separations and safeguards model integration.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cipiti, Benjamin B.; Zinaman, Owen

    2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Research and development of advanced reprocessing plant designs can greatly benefit from the development of a reprocessing plant model capable of transient solvent extraction chemistry. This type of model can be used to optimize the operations of a plant as well as the designs for safeguards, security, and safety. Previous work has integrated a transient solvent extraction simulation module, based on the Solvent Extraction Process Having Interaction Solutes (SEPHIS) code developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, with the Separations and Safeguards Performance Model (SSPM) developed at Sandia National Laboratory, as a first step toward creating a more versatile design and evaluation tool. The goal of this work was to strengthen the integration by linking more variables between the two codes. The results from this integrated model show expected operational performance through plant transients. Additionally, ORIGEN source term files were integrated into the SSPM to provide concentrations, radioactivity, neutron emission rate, and thermal power data for various spent fuels. This data was used to generate measurement blocks that can determine the radioactivity, neutron emission rate, or thermal power of any stream or vessel in the plant model. This work examined how the code could be expanded to integrate other separation steps and benchmark the results to other data. Recommendations for future work will be presented.

  3. Forecasting Model for Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks and Commodity Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kulkarni, Siddhivinayak

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is to create a benchmark based on lagged value of pre-processed spot price, then add pre-processed futures prices for 1, 2, 3,and four months to maturity, one by one and also altogether. The results on the benchmark suggest that a dynamic model of 13 lags is the optimal to forecast spot price direction for the short-term. Further, the forecast accuracy of the direction of the market was 78%, 66%, and 53% for one, two, and three days in future conclusively. For all the experiments, that include futures data as an input, the results show that on the short-term, futures prices do hold new information on the spot price direction. The results obtained will generate comprehensive understanding of the cr...

  4. Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamill, Tom

    Systems Division Stephen J. Lord Director, NWS NCEP Environmental Modeling Center 19 July 2010 (303) 4973060 tom.hamill@noaa.gov #12; 2 Executive Summary The accuracy of many

  5. Implementation of a Corporate Energy Accounting and Forecasting Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kympton, H. W.; Bowman, B. M.

    1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The development and implementation of a Frito-Lay computer based energy consumption reporting and modeling program is discussed. The system has been designed to relate actual plant energy consumption to a standard consumption which incorporates...

  6. Development of a real-time quantitative hydrologic forecasting model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bell, John Frank

    1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    data made in each domain. Fit3ur e 1. Lieatner Radar Carr ection Procedures (by drtmatni ( Bussel I et a 1 . , (97EI ) (Weeks and Hebbert, 1980) and the Boughton Model (Weeks and Hebbert, 1980) are but a few. Models range from sophisticated... of hydroelectric power with existing facilities, $73 million, e) benefits to navigation, $2 million and f) more efFective use of recreational facilities and wildlife habitat, $3 million. Total $485 million The resulting expected benefits in 1983 dollars...

  7. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  8. Rainfall-River Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    ;2Rainfall-River Forecasting Joint Summit II NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program · Minimize losses due management and enhance America's coastal assets · Expand information for managing America's Water Resources, Precipitation and Water Quality Observations · USACE Reservoir Operation Information, Streamflow, Snowpack

  9. Continuous Model Updating and Forecasting for a Naturally Fractured Reservoir

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Almohammadi, Hisham

    2013-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

    . Such capabilities allow for a paradigm change in which reservoir management can be looked at as a strategy that enables a semi-continuous process of model updates and decision optimizations instead of being periodic or reactive. This is referred to as closed...

  10. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31T23:59:59.000Z

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  11. Advancements in Wind Integration Study Data Modeling: The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Draxl, C.; Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Jones, W.; Searight, K.; Getman, D.; Harrold, S.; McCaa, J.; Cline, J.; Clark, C.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Regional wind integration studies in the United States require detailed wind power output data at many locations to perform simulations of how the power system will operate under high-penetration scenarios. The wind data sets that serve as inputs into the study must realistically reflect the ramping characteristics, spatial and temporal correlations, and capacity factors of the simulated wind plants, as well as be time synchronized with available load profiles. The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit described in this paper fulfills these requirements. A wind resource dataset, wind power production time series, and simulated forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model run on a nationwide 2-km grid at 5-min resolution will be made publicly available for more than 110,000 onshore and offshore wind power production sites.

  12. Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ross, M.H. [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (US). Dept. of Physics; Thimmapuram, P.; Fisher, R.E.; Maciorowski, W. [Argonne National Lab., IL (US)

    1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The new 18-sector Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model is designed for convenient study of future industrial energy consumption, taking into account the composition of production, energy prices, and certain kinds of policy initiatives. Electricity and aggregate fossil fuels are modeled. Changes in energy intensity in each sector are driven by autonomous technological improvement (price-independent trend), the opportunity for energy-price-sensitive improvements, energy price expectations, and investment behavior. Although this decision-making framework involves more variables than the simplest econometric models, it enables direct comparison of an econometric approach with conservation supply curves from detailed engineering analysis. It also permits explicit consideration of a variety of policy approaches other than price manipulation. The model is tested in terms of historical data for nine manufacturing sectors, and parameters are determined for forecasting purposes. Relatively uniform and satisfactory parameters are obtained from this analysis. In this report, LIEF is also applied to create base-case and demand-side management scenarios to briefly illustrate modeling procedures and outputs.

  13. Integrated Nozzle Flow, Spray, Combustion, & Emission Modeling...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Nozzle Flow, Spray, Combustion, & Emission Modeling using KH-ACT Primary Breakup Model & Detailed Chemistry Integrated Nozzle Flow, Spray, Combustion, & Emission Modeling using...

  14. Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General Circulation Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arumugam, Sankar

    Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater

  15. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYouTube YouTube Note: Since the.pdfBreaking of BlytheDepartmentEnergy Integrated EnergyIntegratedAdapting

  16. A comparison of water vapor quantities from model short-range forecasts and ARM observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-03-17T23:59:59.000Z

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the 'Merged-sounding' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  17. Essays on Forecasting and Hedging Models in the Oil Market and Causality Analysis in the Korean Stock Market 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Hankyeung

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    on the forecasting models for crude oil prices and the hedging models for gasoline prices, and to study the change in the contemporaneous causal relationship between investors' activities and stock price movements in the Korean stock market. In the first essay...

  18. Essays on Forecasting and Hedging Models in the Oil Market and Causality Analysis in the Korean Stock Market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Hankyeung

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    on the forecasting models for crude oil prices and the hedging models for gasoline prices, and to study the change in the contemporaneous causal relationship between investors' activities and stock price movements in the Korean stock market. In the first essay...

  19. Integrated Resource Planning Model (IRPM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, T. B.

    2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Integrated Resource Planning Model (IRPM) is a decision-support software product for resource-and-capacity planning. Users can evaluate changing constraints on schedule performance, projected cost, and resource use. IRPM is a unique software tool that can analyze complex business situations from a basic supply chain to an integrated production facility to a distributed manufacturing complex. IRPM can be efficiently configured through a user-friendly graphical interface to rapidly provide charts, graphs, tables, and/or written results to summarize postulated business scenarios. There is not a similar integrated resource planning software package presently available. Many different businesses (from government to large corporations as well as medium-to-small manufacturing concerns) could save thousands of dollars and hundreds of labor hours in resource and schedule planning costs. Those businesses also could avoid millions of dollars of revenue lost from fear of overcommitting or from penalties and lost future business for failing to meet promised delivery by using IRPM to perform what-if business-case evaluations. Tough production planning questions that previously were left unanswered can now be answered with a high degree of certainty. Businesses can anticipate production problems and have solutions in hand to deal with those problems. IRPM allows companies to make better plans, decisions, and investments.

  20. A Non Parametric Model for the Forecasting of the Venezuelan Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Costanzo, Sabatino; Dehne, Wafaa; Prato, Hender

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A neural net model for forecasting the prices of Venezuelan crude oil is proposed. The inputs of the neural net are selected by reference to a dynamic system model of oil prices by Mashayekhi (1995, 2001) and its performance is evaluated using two criteria: the Excess Profitability test by Anatoliev and Gerko (2005) and the characteristics of the equity curve generated by a trading strategy based on the neural net predictions. ----- Se introduce aqui un modelo no parametrico para pronosticar los precios del petroleo Venezolano cuyos insumos son seleccionados en base a un sistema dinamico que explica los precios en terminos de dichos insumos. Se describe el proceso de recoleccion y pre-procesamiento de datos y la corrida de la red y se evaluan sus pronosticos a traves de un test estadistico de predictibilidad y de las caracteristicas del Equity Curve inducido por la estrategia de compraventa bursatil generada por dichos pronosticos.

  1. Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    forecasting methods and better integration of advanced wind power forecasts into system and plant operations and wind power plants) ­ Review and assess current practices Propose and test new and improved approachesWind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations Audun Botterud

  2. 11.1 DEVELOPMENT OF AN IMMERSED BOUNDARY METHOD TO RESOLVE COMPLEX TERRAIN IN THE WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING MODEL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chow, Fotini Katopodes

    11.1 DEVELOPMENT OF AN IMMERSED BOUNDARY METHOD TO RESOLVE COMPLEX TERRAIN IN THE WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING MODEL Katherine A. Lundquist1 , Fotini K. Chow 2 , Julie K. Lundquist 3 , and Jeffery D. Mirocha 3 in urban areas are profoundly influenced by the presence of build- ings which divert mean flow, affect

  3. Forecasting the conditional volatility of oil spot and futures prices with structural breaks and long memory models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Forecasting the conditional volatility of oil spot and futures prices with structural breaks of oil spot and futures prices using three GARCH-type models, i.e., linear GARCH, GARCH with structural that oil price fluctuations influence economic activity and financial sector (e.g., Jones and Kaul, 1996

  4. Continuous reservoir simulation model updating and forecasting using a markov chain monte carlo method

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, Chang

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    forecasts of well and reservoir performance, accessible at any time. It can be used to optimize long-term reservoir performance at field scale....

  5. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  6. Forecast of surface layer meteorological parameters at Cerro Paranal with a mesoscale atmospherical model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lascaux, Franck; Fini, Luca

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This article aims at proving the feasibility of the forecast of all the most relevant classical atmospherical parameters for astronomical applications (wind speed and direction, temperature) above the ESO ground-base site of Cerro Paranal with a mesoscale atmospherical model called Meso-Nh. In a precedent paper we have preliminarily treated the model performances obtained in reconstructing some key atmospherical parameters in the surface layer 0-30~m studying the bias and the RMSE on a statistical sample of 20 nights. Results were very encouraging and it appeared therefore mandatory to confirm such a good result on a much richer statistical sample. In this paper, the study was extended to a total sample of 129 nights between 2007 and 2011 distributed in different parts of the solar year. This large sample made our analysis more robust and definitive in terms of the model performances and permitted us to confirm the excellent performances of the model. Besides, we present an independent analysis of the model p...

  7. Waste Form Degradation Model Integration for Engineered Materials...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Waste Form Degradation Model Integration for Engineered Materials Performance Waste Form Degradation Model Integration for Engineered Materials Performance The collaborative...

  8. Need for an Integrated Risk Model

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    is passed to decision makers * Model is needed that (eventually) will integrate seismic risk with other initiators * Scenario approach definition * R

  9. Integration of Nonlinear CDU Models in Refinery

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grossmann, Ignacio E.

    Integration of Nonlinear CDU Models in Refinery Planning Optimization Abdulrahman Alattas, Advisor #12;Refinery Planning Model Development Fixed-yieldModels SwingcutsModels LPPlanningModels Aggregate for the CDU #12;Planning Model Example Typical Refinery Configuration (Adapted from Aronofsky, 1978) Cat Ref

  10. The Los Alamos dynamic radiation environment assimilation model (DREAM) for space weather specification and forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reeves, Geoffrey D [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Friedel, Reiner H W [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Chen, Yue [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Koller, Josef [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Henderson, Michael G [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to assess, quantify, and predict the hazards from the natural space environment and the anthropogenic environment produced by high altitude nuclear explosions (HANE). DREAM was initially developed as a basic research activity to understand and predict the dynamics of the Earth's Van Allen radiation belts. It uses Kalman filter techniques to assimilate data from space environment instruments with a physics-based model of the radiation belts. DREAM can assimilate data from a variety of types of instruments and data with various levels of resolution and fidelity by assigning appropriate uncertainties to the observations. Data from any spacecraft orbit can be assimilated but DREAM was designed to function with as few as two spacecraft inputs: one from geosynchronous orbit and one from GPS orbit. With those inputs, DREAM can be used to predict the environment at any satellite in any orbit whether space environment data are available in those orbits or not. Even with very limited data input and relatively simple physics models, DREAM specifies the space environment in the radiation belts to a high level of accuracy. DREAM has been extensively tested and evaluated as we transition from research to operations. We report here on one set of test results in which we predict the environment in a highly-elliptical polar orbit. We also discuss long-duration reanalysis for spacecraft design, using DREAM for real-time operations, and prospects for 1-week forecasts of the radiation belt environment.

  11. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  12. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  13. Developing a model for explaining and forecasting international tourist arrivals from the major markets to Malaysia

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chin, Loi Young

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to forecast the potential of tourism in the region and understand the factors behind such growth. Malaysia was chosen as the destination country with nine major markets as the countries of origin. The nine countries selected were geographically dispersed over...

  14. A supply forecasting model for Zimbabwe's corn sector: a time series and structural analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Makaudze, Ephias

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Zimbabwean government utilizes the corn supply forecasts to establish producer prices for the following growing season, estimate corn storage and handling costs, project corn import needs and associated costs, and to assess the Grain Marketing...

  15. Spin Foam Models from the Tetrad Integration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A. Mikovic

    2005-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

    We describe a class of spin foam models of four-dimensional quantum gravity which is based on the integration of the tetrad one-forms in the path integral for the Palatini action of General Relativity. In the Euclidian gravity case this class of models can be understood as a modification of the Barrett-Crane spin foam model. Fermionic matter can be coupled by using the path integral with sources for the tetrads and the spin connection, and the corresponding state sum is based on a spin foam where both the edges and the faces are colored independently with the irreducible representations of the spacetime rotations group.

  16. Modelling Organizational Issues for Enterprise Integration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Toronto, University of

    Modelling Organizational Issues for Enterprise Integration Eric S. K. Yu and John Mylopoulos Abstract. Organizational and human issues are often crucial to the successful use of technology Introduction It is generally acknowledged that careful attention to organizational issues is crucial

  17. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  18. Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans Presentation by Paul Leiby of Oak...

  19. Wavelet-Based Nonlinear Multiscale Decomposition Model for Electricity Load Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Murtagh, Fionn

    electrical power systems. Furthermore, power systems need to operate at even higher efficiency lead to extra power being generated and therefore may result in excessive investment in electric plant that is not fully utilized. On the other hand, a forecast that is too low may lead to some revenue loss from sales

  20. Using multi-layer models to forecast gas flow rates in tight gas reservoirs 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jerez Vera, Sergio Armando

    2007-04-25T23:59:59.000Z

    , and (2) to use the single-layer match to demonstrate the error that can occur when forecasting long-term gas production for such complex gas reservoirs. A finite-difference reservoir simulator was used to simulate gas production from various layered tight...

  1. Modeling, History Matching, Forecasting and Analysis of Shale Reservoirs Performance Using Artificial Intelligence

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    matching, forecasting and analyzing oil and gas production in shale reservoirs. In this new approach and analysis of oil and gas production from shale formations. Examples of three case studies in Lower Huron and New Albany shale formations (gas producing) and Bakken Shale (oil producing) is presented

  2. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2005-08-17T23:59:59.000Z

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

  3. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  4. ON THE IMPACT OF SUPER RESOLUTION WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiswell, S

    2009-01-11T23:59:59.000Z

    Assimilation of radar velocity and precipitation fields into high-resolution model simulations can improve precipitation forecasts with decreased 'spin-up' time and improve short-term simulation of boundary layer winds (Benjamin, 2004 & 2007; Xiao, 2008) which is critical to improving plume transport forecasts. Accurate description of wind and turbulence fields is essential to useful atmospheric transport and dispersion results, and any improvement in the accuracy of these fields will make consequence assessment more valuable during both routine operation as well as potential emergency situations. During 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) radars implemented a significant upgrade which increased the real-time level II data resolution to 8 times their previous 'legacy' resolution, from 1 km range gate and 1.0 degree azimuthal resolution to 'super resolution' 250 m range gate and 0.5 degree azimuthal resolution (Fig 1). These radar observations provide reflectivity, velocity and returned power spectra measurements at a range of up to 300 km (460 km for reflectivity) at a frequency of 4-5 minutes and yield up to 13.5 million point observations per level in super-resolution mode. The migration of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D radars to super resolution is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current operational mesoscale model domains utilize grid spacing several times larger than the legacy data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of super resolution reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution is investigated here to determine the impact of the improved data resolution on model predictions.

  5. Modeling for System Integration Studies (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K. D.

    2012-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation describes some the data requirements needed for grid integration modeling and provides real-world examples of such data and its format. Renewable energy integration studies evaluate the operational impacts of variable generation. Transmission planning studies investigate where new transmission is needed to transfer energy from generation sources to load centers. Both use time-synchronized wind and solar energy production and load as inputs. Both examine high renewable energy penetration scenarios in the future.

  6. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  7. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bradley, M.E. (Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)); Wood, A.R.O. (BP Exploration, Anchorage, AK (United States))

    1994-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended.

  8. Topological Matter, Integrable Models and Fusion Rings

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D. Nemeschansky; N. P. Warner

    1991-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    We show how topological $G_k/G_k$ models can be embedded into the topological matter models that are obtained by perturbing the twisted $N=2$ supersymmetric, hermitian symmetric, coset models. In particular, this leads to an embedding of the fusion ring of $G$ as a sub-ring of the perturbed, chiral primary ring. The perturbation of the twisted $N=2$ model that leads to the fusion ring is also shown to lead to an integrable $N=2$ supersymmetric field theory when the untwisted $N=2$ superconformal field theory is perturbed by the same operator and its hermitian conjugate.

  9. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    disaster, Cook Inlet (CI) and Prince William Sound (PWS) are regions that suffer from a lack of accurate wave forecast information. This dissertation develops high- resolution integrated wave forecasting schemes for these regions in order to meet...

  10. CIMS: An Integrated US-Canadian Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nyboer, J.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    CIMS: An Integrated US-Canadian Model John Nyboer, Simon Fraser University As the US addresses energy supply security and, at a state level, various environmental objectives, it is not clear what effect these will have on Canada's exports... technologies in both countries, one can obtain insight into economic and policy consequences for Canada of various US energy scenarios. ...

  11. Modelling Organizational Issues for Enterprise Integration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Toronto, University of

    Modelling Organizational Issues for Enterprise Integration Eric S. K. Yu 1 and John Mylopoulos 2 1. Organizational and human issues are often crucial to the successful use of technology in organizations It is generally acknowledged that careful attention to organizational issues is crucial to the success

  12. ANEMOS: Development of a Next Generation Wind Power Forecasting System for the Large-Scale Integration of Onshore &

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    -NTUA, Greece. * georges.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr, tel:+33-493957501, Ecole des Mines de Paris, Centre d'Energetique 6% to 12% by 2010. Under this target, the problem of integration of RES and namely of wind energy

  13. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF DRAFT FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    procurement process at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast models. Both the staff draft energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly and commercial sectors. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather

  14. Development of a neural network model to nowcast/forecast the coastal water level anomalies on the entrance to Galveston Bay, Texas

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nam, Young Joo

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    level fluctuations are forced primarily by the remote effects which was the water level at the mouth of the estuary, consistent with earlier findings in the literature. A neural network model was optimized to forecast the remote forcing at Galveston Bay...

  15. An integrated evolutionary model approach to small satellite engineering

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robinson, Joseph B. (Joseph Brian)

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A deficiency exists in the use of detailed integrated modeling in the design, fabrication, and operations of small satellites (<180kg). This need led to the design of the Integrated Evolutionary Model (IEM) approach to ...

  16. Test application of a semi-objective approach to wind forecasting for wind energy applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Formica, W.J.

    1983-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The test application of the semi-objective (S-O) wind forecasting technique at three locations is described. The forecasting sites are described as well as site-specific forecasting procedures. Verification of the S-O wind forecasts is presented, and the observed verification results are interpreted. Comparisons are made between S-O wind forecasting accuracy and that of two previous forecasting efforts that used subjective wind forecasts and model output statistics. (LEW)

  17. DOD/NREL Model Integrates Vehicles, Renewables & Microgrid (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Fact sheet on microgrid model created by the Electric Vehicle Grid Integration program at the Fort Carson Army facility.

  18. ModelBased Information Integration in a Neuroscience Mediator System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ludäscher, Bertram

    Model­Based Information Integration in a Neuroscience Mediator System Bertram Lud¨ascher ? Amarnath

  19. Calibration of a distributed flood forecasting model with input uncertainty using a Bayesian framework

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, M.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    error model for calibration and uncertainty estimation ofand T. Wagener (2005), Model calibration and uncertaintyand A. Mailhot (2008), Calibration of hydrological model

  20. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  1. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  2. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  3. FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of, a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions forecasts is 0.05o in latitude and longitude. Solar Radiation model: The model presented in this paper

  4. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  5. Radiolysis Model Formulation for Integration with the Mixed Potential Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buck, Edgar C.; Wittman, Richard S.

    2014-07-10T23:59:59.000Z

    The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), Office of Fuel Cycle Technology has established the Used Fuel Disposition Campaign (UFDC) to conduct the research and development activities related to storage, transportation, and disposal of used nuclear fuel (UNF) and high-level radioactive waste. Within the UFDC, the components for a general system model of the degradation and subsequent transport of UNF is being developed to analyze the performance of disposal options [Sassani et al., 2012]. Two model components of the near-field part of the problem are the ANL Mixed Potential Model and the PNNL Radiolysis Model. This report is in response to the desire to integrate the two models as outlined in [Buck, E.C, J.L. Jerden, W.L. Ebert, R.S. Wittman, (2013) “Coupling the Mixed Potential and Radiolysis Models for Used Fuel Degradation,” FCRD-UFD-2013-000290, M3FT-PN0806058

  6. Agricultural commodity price forecasting accuracy: futures markets versus commercial econometric models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rausser, Gordon C.; Just, Richard E.

    1979-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    versus commercial econometric models Gordon C. RausserMARKETS VERSUS COM4ERCIAL ECONOMETRIC IDDELS by Gordon C.Futures Markets, snd Econometric Models Deeember, 19'7'6,

  7. Orphan drugs : future viability of current forecasting models, in light of impending changes to influential market factors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gottlieb, Joshua

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Interviews were conducted to establish a baseline for how orphan drug forecasting is currently undertaken by financial market and industry analysts with the intention of understanding the variables typically accounted for ...

  8. Atmospheric Environment 39 (2005) 13731382 A hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate and forecast ozone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Irwin, Mark E.

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    reserved. Keywords: Statistical model; Space­time models; Air pollution; Ozone; Meteorology 1. Introduction describing the spatial­temporal behavior of ambient air pollutants such as ozone (O3) and particulate matter. Statistical space­time models are useful for illuminating relationships between different air pollutants

  9. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  10. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What'sis Taking Over OurThe Iron SpinPrincetonUsing Maps toValidatingCloud Properties Derived from

  11. Wind Forecast Model Validation & Improvement for the Central U.S. | The

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What'sis Taking Over OurThe Iron SpinPrincetonUsingWhat is abig world of tiny motionsWEFWindAmes

  12. Efficient market model: within-sample fit versus out-of-sample forecasts 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cheng, Chi

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and the significance level between different models is discussed. At the 20% significance level cash prices and futures prices are generated in efficient markets, as the random walk models, specified by PLS, result in significantly lower RMSFE relative to the non...

  13. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline.of the Market for Natural Gas Futures. Energy Journal 16 (Modeling Forum. 2003. Natural Gas, Fuel Diversity and North

  14. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  15. Extreme wave events during hurricanes can seriously jeopardize the integrity and safety of offshore oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Validation of wave forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Validation of wave forecast for significant wave heights of Mexico. Before the storm, it produced 148,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and 160 million cubic over the warm Gulf of Mexico water between 26 and 28 August, and became a category 5 hurricane by 1200

  16. Global and multi-scale features of solar wind-magnetosphere coupling: From modeling to forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sitnov, Mikhail I.

    with the AL index, which measures the magnetic field disturbances produced by the substorm current system, such as turbulence, bursty bulk flows [Angelopolous et. al., 1999], and fluctuations in the near-Earth current sheet to reconstruct behavior of the system independent of modeling assump- tions, long time series data of geomagnetic

  17. Financial time series forecasting with a bio-inspired fuzzy model Jos Luis Aznarte a,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Granada, Universidad de

    Alcalá-Fdez b , Antonio Arauzo-Azofra c , José Manuel Benítez b a Center for Energy and Processes (CEP series, as stock prices or level of indices, is a controversial issue which has been questioned nature, the most salient of which is the well-known ARMA model by Box and Jenkins (1970). However, due

  18. Multi-objective calibration of forecast ensembles using Bayesian model averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vrugt, Jasper A.

    for selecting the appropriate BMA model. Citation: Vrugt, J. A., M. P. Clark, C. G. H. Diks, Q. Duan, and B. A Martyn P. Clark,2 Cees G. H. Diks,3 Qinyun Duan,4 and Bruce A. Robinson1 Received 6 June 2006; revised 9 performance than the best of the ensemble members, or the ensemble mean [Raftery et al., 2005; Sloughter et al

  19. Integral Model of a Multiphase Plume in Quiescent Stratification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Crounse, B. C.

    The writers present a one-dimensional integral model to describe multiphase plumes discharged to quiescent stratified receiving waters. The model includes an empirical submodel for detrainment, and the capability to include ...

  20. Seamlessly Integrating Software & Hardware Modelling for Large-Scale Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhao, Yuxiao

    Engineering, with the math- ematical modelling approach, Modelica, to address the software/hardware integration problem. The environment and hardware components are modelled in Modelica and integrated software-hardware codesign, large-scale sys- tems, Behavior Engineering, Modelica. 1. Introduction

  1. Multimedia Modeling Using MPEG-7 for Authoring Multimedia Integration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Multimedia Modeling Using MPEG-7 for Authoring Multimedia Integration Tien Tran-Thuong WAM Project In this paper, we describe an approach to audiovisual data modeling for multimedia integration and synchronization. The approach chosen consists in using description tools from Multimedia Description Schemes

  2. Integrated Modeling and Simulation of Lunar Exploration Campaign Logistics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Weck, Olivier L.

    Integrated Modeling and Simulation of Lunar Exploration Campaign Logistics by Sarah A. Shull B #12;Integrated Modeling and Simulation of Lunar Exploration Campaign Logistics by Sarah A. Shull to establish a manned outpost on the lunar surface, it is essential to consider the logistics of both

  3. Integrated Modeling and Simulation of Lunar Exploration Campaign Logistics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Integrated Modeling and Simulation of Lunar Exploration Campaign Logistics Sarah A. Shull, Olivier Campaign Logistics by Sarah A. Shull B.S.E. Aerospace Engineering (2001) The University of Michigan) #12;4 Integrated Modeling and Simulation of Lunar Exploration Campaign Logistics by Sarah A. Shull

  4. Time series modeling and large scale global solar radiation forecasting from geostationary satellites data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Voyant, Cyril; Muselli, Marc; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie Laure

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    When a territory is poorly instrumented, geostationary satellites data can be useful to predict global solar radiation. In this paper, we use geostationary satellites data to generate 2-D time series of solar radiation for the next hour. The results presented in this paper relate to a particular territory, the Corsica Island, but as data used are available for the entire surface of the globe, our method can be easily exploited to another place. Indeed 2-D hourly time series are extracted from the HelioClim-3 surface solar irradiation database treated by the Heliosat-2 model. Each point of the map have been used as training data and inputs of artificial neural networks (ANN) and as inputs for two persistence models (scaled or not). Comparisons between these models and clear sky estimations were proceeded to evaluate the performances. We found a normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) close to 16.5% for the two best predictors (scaled persistence and ANN) equivalent to 35-45% related to ground measurements. F...

  5. Implementation and assessment of turbine wake models in the Weather Research and Forecasting model for both mesoscale and large-eddy simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Singer, M; Mirocha, J; Lundquist, J; Cleve, J

    2010-03-03T23:59:59.000Z

    Flow dynamics in large wind projects are influenced by the turbines located within. The turbine wakes, regions characterized by lower wind speeds and higher levels of turbulence than the surrounding free stream flow, can extend several rotor diameters downstream, and may meander and widen with increasing distance from the turbine. Turbine wakes can also reduce the power generated by downstream turbines and accelerate fatigue and damage to turbine components. An improved understanding of wake formation and transport within wind parks is essential for maximizing power output and increasing turbine lifespan. Moreover, the influence of wakes from large wind projects on neighboring wind farms, agricultural activities, and local climate are all areas of concern that can likewise be addressed by wake modeling. This work describes the formulation and application of an actuator disk model for studying flow dynamics of both individual turbines and arrays of turbines within wind projects. The actuator disk model is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open-source atmospheric simulation code applicable to a wide range of scales, from mesoscale to large-eddy simulation. Preliminary results demonstrate the applicability of the actuator disk model within WRF to a moderately high-resolution large-eddy simulation study of a small array of turbines.

  6. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible forPortsmouth/Paducah47,193.70COMMUNITYResponses: QuestionDaniel Hartsock CIMMS,

  7. Integrated decision support model for global sourcing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mroczkowski, Victor A. (Victor Adam)

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Over the last decade, the U.S. aircraft industry has experienced increasing levels of international integration as companies seek to access global talent and resources, cut production costs, spread financial risk, and ...

  8. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - FESTIV Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible for Renewable Energy: Grid IntegrationReport Available

  9. Multi-horizon solar radiation forecasting for Mediterranean locations using time series models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Voyant, Cyril; Muselli, Marc; Nivet, Marie Laure

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Considering the grid manager's point of view, needs in terms of prediction of intermittent energy like the photovoltaic resource can be distinguished according to the considered horizon: following days (d+1, d+2 and d+3), next day by hourly step (h+24), next hour (h+1) and next few minutes (m+5 e.g.). Through this work, we have identified methodologies using time series models for the prediction horizon of global radiation and photovoltaic power. What we present here is a comparison of different predictors developed and tested to propose a hierarchy. For horizons d+1 and h+1, without advanced ad hoc time series pre-processing (stationarity) we find it is not easy to differentiate between autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). However we observed that using exogenous variables improves significantly the results for MLP . We have shown that the MLP were more adapted for horizons h+24 and m+5. In summary, our results are complementary and improve the existing prediction techniques ...

  10. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  11. NREL: Technology Deployment - Integrated Deployment Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)Integrated CodesTransparency Visit |InfrastructureAerial photo of theIntegrated

  12. WATER DATA MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS INTEGRATIONS WITH MODELS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rhode Island, University of

    Acquisition (SCADA) system that can control operations in treatment plants, as well as continuously check and SCADA interfaces for even more integrated analyses, which is important since many suppliers are implementing SCADA systems. However, only about thirty-five (35) percent of the suppliers have a functioning

  13. Automated inter-model parameter connection synthesis for simulation model integration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ligon, Thomas (Thomas Crumrine)

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    New simulation modeling environments have been developed such that multiple models can be integrated into a single model. This conglomeration of model data allows designers to better understand the physical phenomenon being ...

  14. Forecasting the demand for electric vehicles: accounting for attitudes and perceptions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bierlaire, Michel

    prediction, transportation, attitudes and perceptions, hybrid choice models, fractional factorial design: survey design, model estimation and forecasting. We develop a stated preferences (SP) survey with issues related to the application of models designed to forecast demand for new alternatives, most

  15. Essays in International Macroeconomics and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bejarano Rojas, Jesus Antonio

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation contains three essays in international macroeconomics and financial time series forecasting. In the first essay, I show, numerically, that a two-country New-Keynesian Sticky Prices model, driven by monetary and productivity shocks...

  16. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  17. Cost modeling in the integrated supply chain strategic decision process

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robinson, Todd (Todd Christopher)

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis is based on an internship at Honeywell Aerospace's Integrated Supply Chain (ISC) Leadership division. This work focuses on the role and use of analytical cost models in the strategy development process. The ...

  18. Integration of engineering models in computer-aided preliminary design

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lajoie, Ronnie M.

    The problems of the integration of engineering models in computer-aided preliminary design are reviewed. This paper details the research, development, and testing of modifications to Paper Airplane, a LISP-based computer ...

  19. An Integrated Evolutionary Model Approach to Small Satellite Engineering

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , Col (Ret.) John Keesee, David W. Miller May 2010 SSL #5-10 #12;#12;An Integrated Evolutionary Model 2010 SSL #5-10 This work is based on the unaltered text of the thesis by Joseph Robinson submitted

  20. A design tool for reusing integration knowledge in simulation models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Han, Sangmok

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In the academic field of computer-aided product development, the role of the design tool is to support engineering designers to develop and integrate simulation models. Used to save time and costs in product development ...

  1. Scalable computational architecture for integrating biological pathway models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shiva, V. A

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A grand challenge of systems biology is to model the cell. The cell is an integrated network of cellular functions. Each cellular function, such as immune response, cell division, metabolism or apoptosis, is defined by an ...

  2. Multimedia-modeling integration development environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelton, Mitchell A.; Hoopes, Bonnie L.

    2002-09-02T23:59:59.000Z

    There are many framework systems available; however, the purpose of the framework presented here is to capitalize on the successes of the Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) and Multi-media Multi-pathway Multi-receptor Risk Assessment (3MRA) methodology as applied to the Hazardous Waste Identification Rule (HWIR) while focusing on the development of software tools to simplify the module developer?s effort of integrating a module into the framework.

  3. Perspectives of Integrated Modeling at NERSC

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible for RenewableSpeedingBiomassPPPO WebsitePalmsthePersonnel Management

  4. Error Control of Iterative Linear Solvers for Integrated Groundwater Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bai, Zhaojun

    gradient method or Generalized Minimum RESidual (GMRES) method, is how to choose the residual tolerance for integrated groundwater models, which are implicitly coupled to another model, such as surface water models the correspondence between the residual error in the preconditioned linear system and the solution error. Using

  5. MOSE: a feasibility study for optical turbulence forecasts with the Meso-Nh mesoscale model to support AO facilities at ESO sites (Paranal and Armazones)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Masciadri, E; 10.1117/12.925924

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We present very encouraging preliminary results obtained in the context of the MOSE project, an on-going study aiming at investigating the feasibility of the forecast of the optical turbulence and meteorological parameters (in the free atmosphere as well as in the boundary and surface layer) at Cerro Paranal (site of the Very Large Telescope - VLT) and Cerro Armazones (site of the European Extremely Large Telescope - E-ELT), both in Chile. The study employs the Meso-Nh atmospheric mesoscale model and aims at supplying a tool for optical turbulence forecasts to support the scheduling of the scientific programs and the use of AO facilities at the VLT and the E-ELT. In this study we take advantage of the huge amount of measurements performed so far at Paranal and Armazones by ESO and the TMT consortium in the context of the site selection for the E-ELT and the TMT to constraint/validate the model. A detailed analysis of the model performances in reproducing the atmospheric parameters (T, V, p, H, ...) near the g...

  6. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  7. Forecasted Opportunities

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOEThe Bonneville Power AdministrationField8,Dist.New MexicoFinancingProofWorkingEnergyGo modelP eForForAForecasted

  8. Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

  9. Integrated energy and water conservation modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monsabert, S. de; Liner, B.L. [George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (United States)

    1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Under the Energy Policy Act of 1992, the Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) is required to provide federal facility managers with a clear determination of the impact of water conservation practices on energy consumption. This paper introduces the WATERGY model, which is a spreadsheet model to analyze total energy savings associated with water conservation efforts. The contribution of this effort is the development of a synergistic model based on engineering algorithms as opposed to lumped parameter estimates. The model explicitly details the relationships between direct and indirect water and energy savings. Irrigation, plumbing fixture, appliance, and boiler blowdown savings comprise the direct water component of the model. Reduction in leakage and unaccounted-for water in the distribution system are calculated as indirect water savings. Direct energy savings are calculated for hot water production. Indirect energy savings associated with distribution and collection, electric line losses, and unaccounted-for gas are determined by the model. Data sources, algorithms, and engineering assumptions used in the development of the model are detailed. The model capabilities are demonstrated for a hypothetical federal facility.

  10. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom [Vanderbilt University, Nashville; Quaranta, Vito [Vanderbilt University, Nashville; Evans, Katherine J [ORNL; Rericha, Erin [Vanderbilt University, Nashville

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  11. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  12. Dark energy in some integrable and nonintegrable FRW cosmological models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuralay Esmakhanova; Nurgissa Myrzakulov; Gulgasyl Nugmanova; Yerlan Myrzakulov; Leonid Chechin; Ratbay Myrzakulov

    2011-09-14T23:59:59.000Z

    One of the greatest challenges in cosmology today is to determine the nature of dark energy, the sourse of the observed present acceleration of the Universe. Besides the vacuum energy, various dark energy models have been suggested. The Friedmann - Robertson - Walker (FRW) spacetime plays an important role in modern cosmology. In particular, the most popular models of dark energy work in the FRW spacetime. In this work, a new class of integrable FRW cosmological models is presented. These models induced by the well-known Painlev$\\acute{e}$ equations. Some nonintegrable FRW models are also considered. These last models are constructed with the help of Pinney, Schr$\\ddot{o}$dinger and hypergeometric equations. Scalar field description and two-dimensional generalizations of some cosmological models are presented. Finally some integrable and nonintegrable $F(R)$ and $F(G)$ gravity models are constructed.

  13. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  14. Integration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koschorke, Albrecht; Musanovic, Emina

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Integration By Albrecht Koschorkeby Emina Musanovic [Integration (from Lat. integrare, “toa social unity. Social integration is distinct from systemic

  15. EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts by Caio A. S. van Oldenborgh, 2006: Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America. J. Climate and promote exchange of expertise and information between European and South American seasonal forecasters

  16. DESIGNER INTEGRATION IN TRAINING CYCLES : IEEE LTSA MODEL ADAPTATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    DESIGNER INTEGRATION IN TRAINING CYCLES : IEEE LTSA MODEL ADAPTATION Alain Corbière & Chistophe as the distance learning platform architectures such as IEEE LTSA (Learning and Training System Architecture of the course's progression. It is based on the LTSA architectural model and the studies on the Learning Object

  17. Integration of Groundwater Transport Models with Wireless Sensor Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Han, Qi "Chee"

    Integration of Groundwater Transport Models with Wireless Sensor Networks Kevin Barnhart1 , I.jayasumana@colostate.edu, Fort Collins, CO, USA ABSTRACT Groundwater transport modeling is intended to aid in remediation be conceptualized in the WSN context. INTRODUCTION As groundwater contamination is an established problem with many

  18. UCSF Chimera, MODELLER, and IMP: An integrated modeling system Zheng Yang a

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sali, Andrej

    UCSF Chimera, MODELLER, and IMP: An integrated modeling system Zheng Yang a , Keren Lasker b we present the integration of several modeling tools into UCSF Chimera. These include com- parative probabilities and local interactions by Chimera. Ã? 2011 Published by Elsevier Inc. 1. Introduction Proteins

  19. Yield learning model for integrated circuit package

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balasubramaniam, Gaurishankar

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    , the Plastic Quad Flat Pack and the Ceramic Ball Grid Array at IBM, and the Plastic Ball Grid Array at Motorola. This model has been used as a management toot for making yield predictions, resource allocations, understanding operating practices and provide what...

  20. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    it can generate as much or more energy that it needs ? Building activities need N kWhrs per day (solar panels, heating, etc) ? Harvested from solar panels & passive solar. Amount depends on weather ? NWP models forecast DSWRF @ surface (MJ/m2...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/SolarScribe/SolarScribe/ CMC NWP datasets for Day 2 Forecasts ? Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) ? RDPS raw model data ? 10 km resolution, North America, 000-054 forecasts ? Data at: http...

  1. Three-integral models for axisymmetric galactic discs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    B. Famaey; K. Van Caelenberg; H. Dejonghe

    2002-05-21T23:59:59.000Z

    We present new equilibrium component distribution functions that depend on three analytic integrals in a Stackel potential, and that can be used to model stellar discs of galaxies. These components are generalizations of two-integral ones and can thus provide thin discs in the two-integral approximation. Their most important properties are the partly analytical expression for their moments, the disc-like features of their configuration space densities (exponential decline in the galactic plane and finite extent in the vertical direction) and the anisotropy of their velocity dispersions. We further show that a linear combination of such components can fit a van der Kruit disc.

  2. APT Blanket System Model Based on Initial Conceptual Design - Integrated 1D TRAC System Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hamm, L.L.

    1998-10-07T23:59:59.000Z

    This report documents the approaches taken in establishing a 1-dimensional integrated blanket system model using the TRAC code, developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory.

  3. Technology Forecasting Scenario Development

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

  4. INTEGRATION OF FACILITY MODELING CAPABILITIES FOR NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION ANALYSIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gorensek, M.; Hamm, L.; Garcia, H.; Burr, T.; Coles, G.; Edmunds, T.; Garrett, A.; Krebs, J.; Kress, R.; Lamberti, V.; Schoenwald, D.; Tzanos, C.; Ward, R.

    2011-07-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Developing automated methods for data collection and analysis that can facilitate nuclear nonproliferation assessment is an important research area with significant consequences for the effective global deployment of nuclear energy. Facility modeling that can integrate and interpret observations collected from monitored facilities in order to ascertain their functional details will be a critical element of these methods. Although improvements are continually sought, existing facility modeling tools can characterize all aspects of reactor operations and the majority of nuclear fuel cycle processing steps, and include algorithms for data processing and interpretation. Assessing nonproliferation status is challenging because observations can come from many sources, including local and remote sensors that monitor facility operations, as well as open sources that provide specific business information about the monitored facilities, and can be of many different types. Although many current facility models are capable of analyzing large amounts of information, they have not been integrated in an analyst-friendly manner. This paper addresses some of these facility modeling capabilities and illustrates how they could be integrated and utilized for nonproliferation analysis. The inverse problem of inferring facility conditions based on collected observations is described, along with a proposed architecture and computer framework for utilizing facility modeling tools. After considering a representative sampling of key facility modeling capabilities, the proposed integration framework is illustrated with several examples.

  5. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  6. Process modeling for the Integrated Nonthermal Treatment System (INTS) study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, B.W.

    1997-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes the process modeling done in support of the Integrated Nonthermal Treatment System (INTS) study. This study was performed to supplement the Integrated Thermal Treatment System (ITTS) study and comprises five conceptual treatment systems that treat DOE contract-handled mixed low-level wastes (MLLW) at temperatures of less than 350{degrees}F. ASPEN PLUS, a chemical process simulator, was used to model the systems. Nonthermal treatment systems were developed as part of the INTS study and include sufficient processing steps to treat the entire inventory of MLLW. The final result of the modeling is a process flowsheet with a detailed mass and energy balance. In contrast to the ITTS study, which modeled only the main treatment system, the INTS study modeled each of the various processing steps with ASPEN PLUS, release 9.1-1. Trace constituents, such as radionuclides and minor pollutant species, were not included in the calculations.

  7. Verification of the Equilibrium and MHD Stability Codes within the Integrated Tokamak Modeling Task Force

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Verification of the Equilibrium and MHD Stability Codes within the Integrated Tokamak Modeling Task Force

  8. Integrated Multiscale Modeling of Molecular Computing Devices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weinan E

    2012-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The main bottleneck in modeling transport in molecular devices is to develop the correct formulation of the problem and efficient algorithms for analyzing the electronic structure and dynamics using, for example, the time-dependent density functional theory. We have divided this task into several steps. The first step is to developing the right mathematical formulation and numerical algorithms for analyzing the electronic structure using density functional theory. The second step is to study time-dependent density functional theory, particularly the far-field boundary conditions. The third step is to study electronic transport in molecular devices. We are now at the end of the first step. Under DOE support, we have made subtantial progress in developing linear scaling and sub-linear scaling algorithms for electronic structure analysis. Although there has been a huge amount of effort in the past on developing linear scaling algorithms, most of the algorithms developed suffer from the lack of robustness and controllable accuracy. We have made the following progress: (1) We have analyzed thoroughly the localization properties of the wave-functions. We have developed a clear understanding of the physical as well as mathematical origin of the decay properties. One important conclusion is that even for metals, one can choose wavefunctions that decay faster than any algebraic power. (2) We have developed algorithms that make use of these localization properties. Our algorithms are based on non-orthogonal formulations of the density functional theory. Our key contribution is to add a localization step into the algorithm. The addition of this localization step makes the algorithm quite robust and much more accurate. Moreover, we can control the accuracy of these algorithms by changing the numerical parameters. (3) We have considerably improved the Fermi operator expansion (FOE) approach. Through pole expansion, we have developed the optimal scaling FOE algorithm.

  9. On Models and Ontologies -A Layered Approach for Model-based Tool Integration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hochreiter, Sepp

    On Models and Ontologies - A Layered Approach for Model-based Tool Integration Gerti Kappel1 Schwinger3 , and Manuel Wimmer1 1 Business Informatics Group, Vienna University of Technology {gerti

  10. The addition of a US Rare Earth Element (REE) supply-demand model improves the characterization and scope of the United States Department of Energy's effort to forecast US REE Supply and Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mancco, Richard

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents the development of a new US Rare Earth Element (REE) Supply-Demand Model for the explicit forecast of US REE supply and demand in the 2010 to 2025 time period. In the 2010 Department of Energy (DOE) ...

  11. Integrated Baseline System (IBS) Version 2.0: Models guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Integrated Baseline System (IBS) is an emergency management planning and analysis tool being developed under the direction of the US Army Nuclear and Chemical Agency. This Models Guide summarizes the IBS use of several computer models for predicting the results of emergency situations. These include models for predicting dispersion/doses of airborne contaminants, traffic evacuation, explosion effects, heat radiation from a fire, and siren sound transmission. The guide references additional technical documentation on the models when such documentation is available from other sources. The audience for this manual is chiefly emergency management planners and analysts, but also data managers and system managers.

  12. Integrated modeling of the electric grid, communications, and control

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nutaro, James J [ORNL; Miller, Laurie E [ORNL; Shankar, Mallikarjun [ORNL; Kuruganti, Phani Teja [ORNL

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We present a central concern in modeling and simulating electric grids and the information infrastructure that monitors and controls them: hybrid modeling and simulation. We argue that imminent modernizations and new technologies will require a joint (hybrid) modeling of the continuous world of power systems and the discrete world of events sparked by external contingencies, and by communication, computation, and control operations. The power systems community requires methods to model and simulate hybrid scenarios for systems as large and complex as the electric grid. We discuss an approach based on DEVS and present a scenario in which the integrated information and electric grid infrastructures address a frequency maintenance problem.

  13. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Jana; Luderer, Gunnar; Ashina, Shuichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Kitous, Alban; Mejean, Aurelie; Paroussos, Leonidas; Sano, Fuminori; Turton, Hal; Wilson, Charlie; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economic systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. This article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of integrated assessment models to classify differences among models based on their carbon price responses. Model diagnostics can uncover patterns and provide insights into why, under a given scenario, certain types of models behave in observed ways. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study with 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to more easily explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

  14. An integrated pharmacokineticpharmacodynamic model for an Aurora kinase inhibitor

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Davidson, Fordyce A.

    An integrated pharmacokinetic­pharmacodynamic model for an Aurora kinase inhibitor Hiroko Kamei of chromosomes prior to cell division at mitosis. Aurora kinases play critical roles in mitotic progression and hence small-molecule inhibitors of Aurora kinases have been developed as a new class of potential anti

  15. Incorporating Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies in Integrated Assessment Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Incorporating Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies in Integrated Assessment Models J. R. Mc carbon capture and storage, 2) a natural gas combined cycle technology with carbon capture and storage 1 emissions growth. Both the magnitude and rate of technological change toward low- or no-carbon emitting

  16. Tackling Automotive Challenges with an Integrated RE & Design Artifact Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boltzmannstr. 3, 85748 Garching, Germany {penzenst}@in.tum.de Abstract. The automotive industry faces the needTackling Automotive Challenges with an Integrated RE & Design Artifact Model Birgit Penzenstadler, Documentation, Automotive, Em- bedded Systems 1 Introduction A well-known fact is that the complexity

  17. A Process Model of Applicant Faking on Overt Integrity Tests

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yu, Janie

    2010-01-14T23:59:59.000Z

    To better understand the cognitive processes associated with faking behaviors, Ajzen?s Theory of Planned Behavior was adapted to the study of faking on overt integrity tests. This decision-based model is then expanded through the inclusion of a key...

  18. innovati nNREL Computer Models Integrate Wind Turbines with

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    innovati nNREL Computer Models Integrate Wind Turbines with Floating Platforms Far off the shores of energy-hungry coastal cities, powerful winds blow over the open ocean, where the water is too deep for today's seabed-mounted offshore wind turbines. For the United States to tap into these vast offshore

  19. Techniques to Access Databases and Integrate Data for Hydrologic Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whelan, Gene; Tenney, Nathan D.; Pelton, Mitchell A.; Coleman, Andre M.; Ward, Duane L.; Droppo, James G.; Meyer, Philip D.; Dorow, Kevin E.; Taira, Randal Y.

    2009-06-17T23:59:59.000Z

    This document addresses techniques to access and integrate data for defining site-specific conditions and behaviors associated with ground-water and surface-water radionuclide transport applicable to U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission reviews. Environmental models typically require input data from multiple internal and external sources that may include, but are not limited to, stream and rainfall gage data, meteorological data, hydrogeological data, habitat data, and biological data. These data may be retrieved from a variety of organizations (e.g., federal, state, and regional) and source types (e.g., HTTP, FTP, and databases). Available data sources relevant to hydrologic analyses for reactor licensing are identified and reviewed. The data sources described can be useful to define model inputs and parameters, including site features (e.g., watershed boundaries, stream locations, reservoirs, site topography), site properties (e.g., surface conditions, subsurface hydraulic properties, water quality), and site boundary conditions, input forcings, and extreme events (e.g., stream discharge, lake levels, precipitation, recharge, flood and drought characteristics). Available software tools for accessing established databases, retrieving the data, and integrating it with models were identified and reviewed. The emphasis in this review was on existing software products with minimal required modifications to enable their use with the FRAMES modeling framework. The ability of four of these tools to access and retrieve the identified data sources was reviewed. These four software tools were the Hydrologic Data Acquisition and Processing System (HDAPS), Integrated Water Resources Modeling System (IWRMS) External Data Harvester, Data for Environmental Modeling Environmental Data Download Tool (D4EM EDDT), and the FRAMES Internet Database Tools. The IWRMS External Data Harvester and the D4EM EDDT were identified as the most promising tools based on their ability to access and retrieve the required data, and their ability to integrate the data into environmental models using the FRAMES environment.

  20. A Unit Commitment Model with Demand Response for the Integration of Renewable Energies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ikeda, Yuichi; Kataoka, Kazuto; Ogimoto, Kazuhiko

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The output of renewable energy fluctuates significantly depending on weather conditions. We develop a unit commitment model to analyze requirements of the forecast output and its error for renewable energies. Our model obtains the time series for the operational state of thermal power plants that would maximize the profits of an electric power utility by taking into account both the forecast of output its error for renewable energies and the demand response of consumers. We consider a power system consisting of thermal power plants, photovoltaic systems (PV), and wind farms and analyze the effect of the forecast error on the operation cost and reserves. We confirm that the operation cost was increases with the forecast error. The effect of a sudden decrease in wind power is also analyzed. More thermal power plants need to be operated to generate power to absorb this sudden decrease in wind power. The increase in the number of operating thermal power plants within a short period does not affect the total opera...

  1. Probabilistic manpower forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koonce, James Fitzhugh

    1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas ASSAM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May, 1966 Major Subject...: Computer Science and Statistics PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis By JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas A@M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May...

  2. Integrated science model for assessment of climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jain, A.K.; Wuebbles, D.J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Kheshgi, H.S. [Exxon Research and Engineering Co., Annandale, NJ (United States)

    1994-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Integrated assessment models are intended to represent processes that govern physical, ecological, economic and social systems. This report describes a scientific model relating emissions to global temperature and sea level. This model is intended to be one component of an integrated assessment model which is, of course, much more comprehensive. The model is able to reproduce past changes in CO{sub 2} concentration, global temperature, and sea level. The model is used to estimate the emissions rates required to lead to stabilization of CO{sub 2} at various levels. The model is also used to estimate global temperature rise, the rate of temperature change, and sea level rise driven by IPCC emissions scenarios. The emission of fossil fuel CO{sub 2} is modeled to have the largest long term effect on climate. Results do show the importance of expected changes of trace greenhouse gases other than CO{sub 2} in the near future. Because of the importance of these other trace gases, further work is recommended to more accurately estimate their effects.

  3. AMFIBIA: A Meta-Model for the Integration of Business Process Modelling Aspects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kindler, Ekkart

    AMFIBIA: A Meta-Model for the Integration of Business Process Modelling Aspects Bj¨orn Axenath that formalizes the essential as- pects and concepts of business process modelling. Though AMFIBIA is not the first approach to formalizing the aspects and concepts of busi- ness process modelling, it is more

  4. Integration of the DAYCENT Biogeochemical Model within a Multi-Model Framework

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    David Muth

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Agricultural residues are the largest near term source of cellulosic 13 biomass for bioenergy production, but removing agricultural residues sustainably 14 requires considering the critical roles that residues play in the agronomic system. 15 Determining sustainable removal rates for agricultural residues has received 16 significant attention and integrated modeling strategies have been built to evaluate 17 sustainable removal rates considering soil erosion and organic matter constraints. 18 However the current integrated model does not quantitatively assess soil carbon 19 and long term crop yields impacts of residue removal. Furthermore the current 20 integrated model does not evaluate the greenhouse gas impacts of residue 21 removal, specifically N2O and CO2 gas fluxes from the soil surface. The DAYCENT 22 model simulates several important processes for determining agroecosystem 23 performance. These processes include daily Nitrogen-gas flux, daily carbon dioxide 24 flux from soil respiration, soil organic carbon and nitrogen, net primary productivity, 25 and daily water and nitrate leaching. Each of these processes is an indicator of 26 sustainability when evaluating emerging cellulosic biomass production systems for 27 bioenergy. A potentially vulnerable cellulosic biomass resource is agricultural 28 residues. This paper presents the integration of the DAYCENT model with the 29 existing integration framework modeling tool to investigate additional environment 30 impacts of agricultural residue removal. The integrated model is extended to 31 facilitate two-way coupling between DAYCENT and the existing framework. The 32 extended integrated model is applied to investigate additional environmental 33 impacts from a recent sustainable agricultural residue removal dataset. The 34 integrated model with DAYCENT finds some differences in sustainable removal 35 rates compared to previous results for a case study county in Iowa. The extended 36 integrated model with DAYCENT also predicts that long term yields will decrease.

  5. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Uranium Processing Facility UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be...

  6. Long Term Forecast ofLong Term Forecast of TsunamisTsunamis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    : ImproveImprove NOAANOAA''ss understandingunderstanding and forecast capabilityand forecast capability inin

  7. Integrated reservoir characterization: Improvement in heterogeneities stochastic modelling by integration of additional external constraints

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doligez, B.; Eschard, R. [Institut Francais du Petrole, Rueil Malmaison (France); Geffroy, F. [Centre de Geostatistique, Fontainebleau (France)] [and others

    1997-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The classical approach to construct reservoir models is to start with a fine scale geological model which is informed with petrophysical properties. Then scaling-up techniques allow to obtain a reservoir model which is compatible with the fluid flow simulators. Geostatistical modelling techniques are widely used to build the geological models before scaling-up. These methods provide equiprobable images of the area under investigation, which honor the well data, and which variability is the same than the variability computed from the data. At an appraisal phase, when few data are available, or when the wells are insufficient to describe all the heterogeneities and the behavior of the field, additional constraints are needed to obtain a more realistic geological model. For example, seismic data or stratigraphic models can provide average reservoir information with an excellent areal coverage, but with a poor vertical resolution. New advances in modelisation techniques allow now to integrate this type of additional external information in order to constrain the simulations. In particular, 2D or 3D seismic derived information grids, or sand-shale ratios maps coming from stratigraphic models can be used as external drifts to compute the geological image of the reservoir at the fine scale. Examples are presented to illustrate the use of these new tools, their impact on the final reservoir model, and their sensitivity to some key parameters.

  8. Integrated Baseline Bystem (IBS) Version 1.03: Models guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Integrated Baseline System)(IBS), operated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is a system of computerized tools for emergency planning and analysis. This document is the models guide for the IBS and explains how to use the emergency related computer models. This document provides information for the experienced system user, and is the primary reference for the computer modeling software supplied with the system. It is designed for emergency managers and planners, and others familiar with the concepts of computer modeling. Although the IBS manual set covers basic and advanced operations, it is not a complete reference document set. Emergency situation modeling software in the IBS is supported by additional technical documents. Some of the other IBS software is commercial software for which more complete documentation is available. The IBS manuals reference such documentation where necessary.

  9. Web Services-Enhanced Agile Modeling and Integrating Business Processes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Belouadha, Fatima-Zahra; Roudiès, Ounsa

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In a global business context with continuous changes, the enterprises have to enhance their operational efficiency, to react more quickly, to ensure the flexibility of their business processes, and to build new collaboration pathways with external partners. To achieve this goal, they must use e-business methods, mechanisms and techniques while capitalizing on the potential of new information and communication technologies. In this context, we propose a standards, model and Web services-based approach for modeling and integrating agile enterprise business processes. The purpose is to benefit from Web services characteristics to enhance the processes design and realize their dynamic integration. The choice of focusing on Web services is essentially justified by their broad adoption by enterprises as well as their capability to warranty interoperability between both intra and inter-enterprises systems. Thereby, we propose in this chapter a metamodel for describing business processes, and discuss their dynamic in...

  10. Studio Education for Integrated Practice Using Building Information Modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    O?zener, Ozan O?zener

    2011-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

    ; M.Arch., Istanbul Technical University Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Mark J. Clayton This research study posits that an altered educational approach to design studio can produce future professionals who apply Building Information Modeling... (BIM) in the context of Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) to execute designs faster and produce designs that have demonstrably higher performance. The combination of new technologies and social/contractual constructs represents an alternative...

  11. Introducing the Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster Aston Chipanshi1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miami, University of

    for crop yield forecasting and risk analysis. Using the Census Agriculture Region (CAR) as the unit Climate Decision Support and Adaptation, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 1011, Innovation Blvd, Saskatoon, SK S7V 1B7, Canada The Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (CCYF) is a statistical modelling tool

  12. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co for the modeled wind- CAES system would not cover annualized capital costs. We also estimate market prices-ahead market is roughly $100, with large variability due to electric power prices. Wind power forecast errors

  13. MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) Version 2: Model Description and Baseline Evaluation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sokolov, Andrei P.

    The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) is designed for analyzing the global environmental changes that may result from anthropogenic causes, quantifying the uncertainties associated with the projected changes, and ...

  14. Integration of Nonlinear CDU Models in RefineryCDU Models in Refinery

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grossmann, Ignacio E.

    Integration of Nonlinear CDU Models in RefineryCDU Models in Refinery Planning Optimization Carnegie Mellon University EWO Meeting ­ March 2011 1 #12;I t d tiIntroduction Refinery production planning models Optimizing refinery operation C d l ti Crude selection Maximizing profit; minimizing cost

  15. Verification of hourly forecasts of wind turbine power output

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A verification of hourly average wind speed forecasts in terms of hourly average power output of a MOD-2 was performed for four sites. Site-specific probabilistic transformation models were developed to transform the forecast and observed hourly average speeds to the percent probability of exceedance of an hourly average power output. (This transformation model also appears to have value in predicting annual energy production for use in wind energy feasibility studies.) The transformed forecasts were verified in a deterministic sense (i.e., as continuous values) and in a probabilistic sense (based upon the probability of power output falling in a specified category). Since the smoothing effects of time averaging are very pronounced, the 90% probability of exceedance was built into the transformation models. Semiobjective and objective (model output statistics) forecasts were made compared for the four sites. The verification results indicate that the correct category can be forecast an average of 75% of the time over a 24-hour period. Accuracy generally decreases with projection time out to approx. 18 hours and then may increase due to the fairly regular diurnal wind patterns that occur at many sites. The ability to forecast the correct power output category increases with increasing power output because occurrences of high hourly average power output (near rated) are relatively rare and are generally not forecast. The semiobjective forecasts proved superior to model output statistics in forecasting high values of power output and in the shorter time frames (1 to 6 hours). However, model output statistics were slightly more accurate at other power output levels and times. Noticeable differences were observed between deterministic and probabilistic (categorical) forecast verification results.

  16. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  17. Modeling fabrication of nuclear components: An integrative approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hench, K.W.

    1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Reduction of the nuclear weapons stockpile and the general downsizing of the nuclear weapons complex has presented challenges for Los Alamos. One is to design an optimized fabrication facility to manufacture nuclear weapon primary components in an environment of intense regulation and shrinking budgets. This dissertation presents an integrative two-stage approach to modeling the casting operation for fabrication of nuclear weapon primary components. The first stage optimizes personnel radiation exposure for the casting operation layout by modeling the operation as a facility layout problem formulated as a quadratic assignment problem. The solution procedure uses an evolutionary heuristic technique. The best solutions to the layout problem are used as input to the second stage - a simulation model that assesses the impact of competing layouts on operational performance. The focus of the simulation model is to determine the layout that minimizes personnel radiation exposures and nuclear material movement, and maximizes the utilization of capacity for finished units.

  18. Subhourly wind forecasting techniques for wind turbine operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Kosorok, M.R.; Formica, W.J.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Three models for making automated forecasts of subhourly wind and wind power fluctuations were examined to determine the models' appropriateness, accuracy, and reliability in wind forecasting for wind turbine operation. Such automated forecasts appear to have value not only in wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine operating strategies (such as determining when to attempt startup). A simple persistence model, an autoregressive model, and a generalized equivalent Markhov (GEM) model were developed and tested using spring season data from the WKY television tower located near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The three models represent a pure measurement approach, a pure statistical method and a statistical-dynamical model, respectively. Forecasting models of wind speed means and measures of deviations about the mean were developed and tested for all three forecasting techniques for the 45-meter level and for the 10-, 30- and 60-minute time intervals. The results of this exploratory study indicate that a persistence-based approach, using onsite measurements, will probably be superior in the 10-minute time frame. The GEM model appears to have the most potential in 30-minute and longer time frames, particularly when forecasting wind speed fluctuations. However, several improvements to the GEM model are suggested. In comparison to the other models, the autoregressive model performed poorly at all time frames; but, it is recommended that this model be upgraded to an autoregressive moving average (ARMA or ARIMA) model. The primary constraint in adapting the forecasting models to the production of wind turbine cluster power output forecasts is the lack of either actual data, or suitable models, for simulating wind turbine cluster performance.

  19. 2008 European PV Conference, Valencia, Spain COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    2008 European PV Conference, Valencia, Spain COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA J models 1 INTRODUCTION Solar radiation and PV production forecasts are becoming increasingly important/) three teams of experts are benchmarking their solar radiation forecast against ground truth data

  20. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  1. Process modeling for the Integrated Thermal Treatment System (ITTS) study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liebelt, K.H.; Brown, B.W.; Quapp, W.J.

    1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes the process modeling done in support of the integrated thermal treatment system (ITTS) study, Phases 1 and 2. ITTS consists of an integrated systems engineering approach for uniform comparison of widely varying thermal treatment technologies proposed for treatment of the contact-handled mixed low-level wastes (MLLW) currently stored in the U.S. Department of Energy complex. In the overall study, 19 systems were evaluated. Preconceptual designs were developed that included all of the various subsystems necessary for a complete installation, from waste receiving through to primary and secondary stabilization and disposal of the processed wastes. Each system included the necessary auxiliary treatment subsystems so that all of the waste categories in the complex were fully processed. The objective of the modeling task was to perform mass and energy balances of the major material components in each system. Modeling of trace materials, such as pollutants and radioactive isotopes, were beyond the present scope. The modeling of the main and secondary thermal treatment, air pollution control, and metal melting subsystems was done using the ASPEN PLUS process simulation code, Version 9.1-3. These results were combined with calculations for the remainder of the subsystems to achieve the final results, which included offgas volumes, and mass and volume waste reduction ratios.

  2. Data Integration for the Generation of High Resolution Reservoir Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Albert Reynolds; Dean Oliver; Gaoming Li; Yong Zhao; Chaohui Che; Kai Zhang; Yannong Dong; Chinedu Abgalaka; Mei Han

    2009-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

    The goal of this three-year project was to develop a theoretical basis and practical technology for the integration of geologic, production and time-lapse seismic data in a way that makes best use of the information for reservoir description and reservoir performance predictions. The methodology and practical tools for data integration that were developed in this research project have been incorporated into computational algorithms that are feasible for large scale reservoir simulation models. As the integration of production and seismic data require calibrating geological/geostatistical models to these data sets, the main computational tool is an automatic history matching algorithm. The following specific goals were accomplished during this research. (1) We developed algorithms for calibrating the location of the boundaries of geologic facies and the distribution of rock properties so that production and time-lapse seismic data are honored. (2) We developed and implemented specific procedures for conditioning reservoir models to time-lapse seismic data. (3) We developed and implemented algorithms for the characterization of measurement errors which are needed to determine the relative weights of data when conditioning reservoir models to production and time-lapse seismic data by automatic history matching. (4) We developed and implemented algorithms for the adjustment of relative permeability curves during the history matching process. (5) We developed algorithms for production optimization which accounts for geological uncertainty within the context of closed-loop reservoir management. (6) To ensure the research results will lead to practical public tools for independent oil companies, as part of the project we built a graphical user interface for the reservoir simulator and history matching software using Visual Basic.

  3. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

    2007-08-20T23:59:59.000Z

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  4. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  5. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

    EMGT 835 FIELD PROJECT: Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting By Juan Mario Balandran jmbg@hotmail.com Master of Science The University of Kansas Fall Semester, 2005 An EMGT Field Project report submitted...............................................................................................................................................10 Current Inventory Forecast Process ...........................................................................................10 Development of Alternative Forecast Process...

  6. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    electricity demand forecast means that the region's electricity needs would grow by 5,343 average megawattsDemand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping

  7. AN INTEGRATED MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR CARBON MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGIES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anand B. Rao; Edward S. Rubin; Michael B. Berkenpas

    2004-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    CO{sub 2} capture and storage (CCS) is gaining widespread interest as a potential method to control greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel sources, especially electric power plants. Commercial applications of CO{sub 2} separation and capture technologies are found in a number of industrial process operations worldwide. Many of these capture technologies also are applicable to fossil fuel power plants, although applications to large-scale power generation remain to be demonstrated. This report describes the development of a generalized modeling framework to assess alternative CO{sub 2} capture and storage options in the context of multi-pollutant control requirements for fossil fuel power plants. The focus of the report is on post-combustion CO{sub 2} capture using amine-based absorption systems at pulverized coal-fired plants, which are the most prevalent technology used for power generation today. The modeling framework builds on the previously developed Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM). The expanded version with carbon sequestration is designated as IECM-cs. The expanded modeling capability also includes natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants and integrated coal gasification combined cycle (IGCC) systems as well as pulverized coal (PC) plants. This report presents details of the performance and cost models developed for an amine-based CO{sub 2} capture system, representing the baseline of current commercial technology. The key uncertainties and variability in process design, performance and cost parameters which influence the overall cost of carbon mitigation also are characterized. The new performance and cost models for CO{sub 2} capture systems have been integrated into the IECM-cs, along with models to estimate CO{sub 2} transport and storage costs. The CO{sub 2} control system also interacts with other emission control technologies such as flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems for SO{sub 2} control. The integrated model is applied to study the feasibility and cost of carbon capture and sequestration at both new and existing PC plants as well as new NGCC plants. The cost of CO{sub 2} avoidance using amine-based CO{sub 2} capture technology is found to be sensitive to assumptions about the reference plant design and operation, as well as assumptions about the CO{sub 2} capture system design. The case studies also reveal multi-pollutant interactions and potential tradeoffs in the capture of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2}, NO{sub 2} and NH{sub 3}. The potential for targeted R&D to reduce the cost of CO{sub 2} capture also is explored using the IECM-cs in conjunction with expert elicitations regarding potential improvements in key performance and cost parameters of amine-based systems. The results indicate that the performance of amine-based CO{sub 2} capture systems can be improved significantly, and the cost of CO{sub 2} capture reduced substantially over the next decade or two, via innovations such as new or improved sorbents with lower regeneration heat requirements, and improvements in power plant heat integration to reduce the (currently large) energy penalty of CO{sub 2} capture. Future work will explore in more detail a broader set of advanced technology options to lower the costs of CO{sub 2} capture and storage. Volume 2 of this report presents a detailed User's Manual for the IECM-cs computer model as a companion to the technical documentation in Volume 1.

  8. Database integration in a multimedia-modeling environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dorow, Kevin E.

    2002-09-02T23:59:59.000Z

    Integration of data from disparate remote sources has direct applicability to modeling, which can support Brownfield assessments. To accomplish this task, a data integration framework needs to be established. A key element in this framework is the metadata that creates the relationship between the pieces of information that are important in the multimedia modeling environment and the information that is stored in the remote data source. The design philosophy is to allow modelers and database owners to collaborate by defining this metadata in such a way that allows interaction between their components. The main parts of this framework include tools to facilitate metadata definition, database extraction plan creation, automated extraction plan execution / data retrieval, and a central clearing house for metadata and modeling / database resources. Cross-platform compatibility (using Java) and standard communications protocols (http / https) allow these parts to run in a wide variety of computing environments (Local Area Networks, Internet, etc.), and, therefore, this framework provides many benefits. Because of the specific data relationships described in the metadata, the amount of data that have to be transferred is kept to a minimum (only the data that fulfill a specific request are provided as opposed to transferring the complete contents of a data source). This allows for real-time data extraction from the actual source. Also, the framework sets up collaborative responsibilities such that the different types of participants have control over the areas in which they have domain knowledge-the modelers are responsible for defining the data relevant to their models, while the database owners are responsible for mapping the contents of the database using the metadata definitions. Finally, the data extraction mechanism allows for the ability to control access to the data and what data are made available.

  9. CLEAR SKY MODELS ASSESSMENT FOR AN OPERATIONAL PV PRODUCTION FORECASTING Sylvain Cros, Olivier Liandrat, Nicolas Sbastien, Nicolas Schmutz

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    reanalysis instead of punctual measurements significantly reduces errors in clear sky models. 1 INTRODUCTION the concentration of atmospheric components absorbing and diffusing solar radiation in the shortwave. Concerned

  10. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  11. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  12. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price because oil, coal, and natural gas are potential fuels for electricity generation. Natural gas

  13. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Quantifying PV power output variability,” Solar Energy, vol.each solar sen at node i, P(t) the total power output of theSolar Forecasting Historically, traditional power generation technologies such as fossil and nu- clear power which were designed to run in stable output

  14. CASL-U-2015-0015-000 Modeling Integral Fuel

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office511041clothAdvanced Materials Advanced. C o w l i t z C o . C l a r k C o . CL25-000 Modeling Integral

  15. Ontologies for the Integration of Air Quality Models and 3D City Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    -city densification may limit air pollution, carbon emissions, and energy use through reduced transportation of the most important environmental problems is air pollution, mostly induced by vehicle traffic1 Ontologies for the Integration of Air Quality Models and 3D City Models Claudine Metral Institut

  16. Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

    2014-07-25T23:59:59.000Z

    We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is ³delayed² and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

  17. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Ed.. Editor: Jan

  18. The Quality of a 48-Hours Wind Power Forecast Using the German and Danish Weather Prediction Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    numerical weather prediction models operated by the weather services are refined by taking into account stock exchange. The typical predic- tion time horizon which is needed for these purposes is 3 to 48 are applied taking into account the effects from lo- cal roughness, thermal stratification of the atmosphere

  19. FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

  20. An econometric analysis and forecasting of Seoul office market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Kyungmin

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines and forecasts the Seoul office market, which is going to face a big supply in the next few years. After reviewing several previous studies on the Dynamic model and the Seoul Office market, this thesis ...

  1. Utrecht University Academic Integrity Complaints Procedure This complaints procedure follows the national Model Complaints Procedure Academic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Utrecht, Universiteit

    integrity or its researchers and guarantees it will investigate all well-founded suspicions of misconduct1 Utrecht University Academic Integrity Complaints Procedure This complaints procedure follows the national Model Complaints Procedure Academic Integrity of the joint Dutch universities. The model

  2. Numerical simulation of a lattice polymer model at its integrable point

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A. Bedini; A. L. Owczarek; T. Prellberg

    2013-05-21T23:59:59.000Z

    We revisit an integrable lattice model of polymer collapse using numerical simulations. This model was first studied by Bl\\"ote and Nienhuis in J. Phys. A. {\\bf 22}, 1415 (1989) and it describes polymers with some attraction, providing thus a model for the polymer collapse transition. At a particular set of Boltzmann weights the model is integrable and the exponents $\

  3. Groundwater Modeling in ArcView: by integrating ArcView, MODFLOW and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sengupta, Raja

    Groundwater Modeling in ArcView: by integrating ArcView, MODFLOW and MODPATH Abstract Modeling. This paper addresses groundwater modeling which is one of the many entities in environmental modeling in ArcView 3.2a. The objective was to create an integrated system where a user could do groundwater

  4. Integration of Water Resource Models with Fayetteville Shale Decision Support and Information System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cothren, Jackson; Thoma, Greg; DiLuzio, Mauro; Limp, Fred

    2013-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Significant issues can arise with the timing, location, and volume of surface water withdrawals associated with hydraulic fracturing of gas shale reservoirs as impacted watersheds may be sensitive, especially in drought years, during low flow periods, or during periods of the year when activities such as irrigation place additional demands on the surface supply of water. Significant energy production and associated water withdrawals may have a cumulative impact to watersheds over the short-term. Hence, hydraulic fracturing based on water withdrawal could potentially create shifts in the timing and magnitude of low or high flow events or change the magnitude of river flow at daily, monthly, seasonal, or yearly time scales. These changes in flow regimes can result in dramatically altered river systems. Currently little is known about the impact of fracturing on stream flow behavior. Within this context the objective of this study is to assess the impact of the hydraulic fracturing on the water balance of the Fayetteville Shale play area and examine the potential impacts of hydraulic fracturing on river flow regime at subbasin scale. This project addressed that need with four unique but integrated research and development efforts: 1) Evaluate the predictive reliability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model based at a variety of scales (Task/Section 3.5). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to simulate the across-scale water balance and the respective impact of hydraulic fracturing. A second hypothetical scenario was designed to assess the current and future impacts of water withdrawals for hydraulic fracturing on the flow regime and on the environmental flow components (EFCs) of the river. The shifting of these components, which present critical elements to water supply and water quality, could influence the ecological dynamics of river systems. For this purpose, we combined the use of SWAT model and Richter et al.’s (1996) methodology to assess the shifting and alteration of the flow regime within the river and streams of the study area. 2) Evaluate the effect of measurable land use changes related to gas development (well-pad placement, access road completion, etc.) on surface water flow in the region (Task/Section 3.7). Results showed that since the upsurge in shale-gas related activities in the Fayetteville Shale Play (between 2006 and 2010), shale-gas related infrastructure in the region have increase by 78%. This change in land-cover in comparison with other land-cover classes such as forest, urban, pasture, agricultural and water indicates the highest rate of change in any land-cover category for the study period. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) flow model of the Little Red River watershed simulated from 2000 to 2009 showed a 10% increase in storm water runoff. A forecast scenario based on the assumption that 2010 land-cover does not see any significant change over the forecast period (2010 to 2020) also showed a 10% increase in storm water runoff. Further analyses showed that this change in the stream-flow regime for the forecast period is attributable to the increase in land-cover as introduced by the shale-gas infrastructure. 3) Upgrade the Fayetteville Shale Information System to include information on watershed status. (Tasks/Sections 2.1 and 2.2). This development occurred early in the project period, and technological improvements in web-map API’s have made it possible to further improve the map. The current sites (http://lingo.cast.uark.edu) is available but is currently being upgraded to a more modern interface and robust mapping engine using funds outside this project. 4) Incorporate the methodologies developed in Tasks/Sections 3.5 and 3.7 into a Spatial Decision Support System for use by regulatory agencies and producers in the play. The resulting system is available at http://fayshale.cast.uark.edu and is under review the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission.

  5. Integrated dynamic landscape analysis and modeling system (IDLAMS) : installation manual.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Z.; Majerus, K. A.; Sundell, R. C.; Sydelko, P. J.; Vogt, M. C.

    1999-02-24T23:59:59.000Z

    The Integrated Dynamic Landscape Analysis and Modeling System (IDLAMS) is a prototype, integrated land management technology developed through a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the US Army Corps of Engineers Construction Engineering Research Laboratories (USACERL). Dr. Ronald C. Sundell, Ms. Pamela J. Sydelko, and Ms. Kimberly A. Majerus were the principal investigators (PIs) for this project. Dr. Zhian Li was the primary software developer. Dr. Jeffrey M. Keisler, Mr. Christopher M. Klaus, and Mr. Michael C. Vogt developed the decision analysis component of this project. It was developed with funding support from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP), a land/environmental stewardship research program with participation from the US Department of Defense (DoD), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). IDLAMS predicts land conditions (e.g., vegetation, wildlife habitats, and erosion status) by simulating changes in military land ecosystems for given training intensities and land management practices. It can be used by military land managers to help predict the future ecological condition for a given land use based on land management scenarios of various levels of training intensity. It also can be used as a tool to help land managers compare different land management practices and further determine a set of land management activities and prescriptions that best suit the needs of a specific military installation.

  6. Integrated dynamic landscape analysis and modeling system (IDLAMS) : programmer's manual.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Klaus, C. M.; Li, Z.; Majerus, K. A.; Sundell, R. C.; Sydelko, P. J.; Vogt, M. C.

    1999-02-24T23:59:59.000Z

    The Integrated Dynamic Landscape Analysis and Modeling System (IDLAMS) is a prototype, integrated land management technology developed through a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the US Army Corps of Engineers Construction Engineering Research Laboratories (USACERL). Dr. Ronald C. Sundell, Ms. Pamela J. Sydelko, and Ms. Kimberly A. Majerus were the principal investigators (PIs) for this project. Dr. Zhian Li was the primary software developer. Dr. Jeffrey M. Keisler, Mr. Christopher M. Klaus, and Mr. Michael C. Vogt developed the decision analysis component of this project. It was developed with funding support from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP), a land/environmental stewardship research program with participation from the US Department of Defense (DoD), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). IDLAMS predicts land conditions (e.g., vegetation, wildlife habitats, and erosion status) by simulating changes in military land ecosystems for given training intensities and land management practices. It can be used by military land managers to help predict the future ecological condition for a given land use based on land management scenarios of various levels of training intensity. It also can be used as a tool to help land managers compare different land management practices and further determine a set of land management activities and prescriptions that best suit the needs of a specific military installation.

  7. Process integrated modelling for steelmaking Life Cycle Inventory analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iosif, Ana-Maria [Arcelor Research, Voie Romaine, BP30320, Maizieres-les-Metz, 57283 (France)], E-mail: ana-maria.iosif@arcelormittal.com; Hanrot, Francois [Arcelor Research, Voie Romaine, BP30320, Maizieres-les-Metz, 57283 (France)], E-mail: francois.hanrot@arcelormittal.com; Ablitzer, Denis [LSG2M, Ecole des Mines de Nancy, Parc de Saurupt, F-54042 Nancy cedex (France)], E-mail: denis.ablitzer@mines.inpl-nancy.fr

    2008-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

    During recent years, strict environmental regulations have been implemented by governments for the steelmaking industry in order to reduce their environmental impact. In the frame of the ULCOS project, we have developed a new methodological framework which combines the process integrated modelling approach with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method in order to carry out the Life Cycle Inventory of steelmaking. In the current paper, this new concept has been applied to the sinter plant which is the most polluting steelmaking process. It has been shown that this approach is a powerful tool to make the collection of data easier, to save time and to provide reliable information concerning the environmental diagnostic of the steelmaking processes.

  8. Model Predictive Control of Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Power Plants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Wayne Bequette; Priyadarshi Mahapatra

    2010-08-31T23:59:59.000Z

    The primary project objectives were to understand how the process design of an integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plant affects the dynamic operability and controllability of the process. Steady-state and dynamic simulation models were developed to predict the process behavior during typical transients that occur in plant operation. Advanced control strategies were developed to improve the ability of the process to follow changes in the power load demand, and to improve performance during transitions between power levels. Another objective of the proposed work was to educate graduate and undergraduate students in the application of process systems and control to coal technology. Educational materials were developed for use in engineering courses to further broaden this exposure to many students. ASPENTECH software was used to perform steady-state and dynamic simulations of an IGCC power plant. Linear systems analysis techniques were used to assess the steady-state and dynamic operability of the power plant under various plant operating conditions. Model predictive control (MPC) strategies were developed to improve the dynamic operation of the power plants. MATLAB and SIMULINK software were used for systems analysis and control system design, and the SIMULINK functionality in ASPEN DYNAMICS was used to test the control strategies on the simulated process. Project funds were used to support a Ph.D. student to receive education and training in coal technology and the application of modeling and simulation techniques.

  9. UNCOVERING THE DESIGN PRINCIPLES OF POLYAMINE REGULATION IN YEAST: AN INTEGRATED MODELLING AND EXPERIMENTAL STUDY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ward, Karen

    UNCOVERING THE DESIGN PRINCIPLES OF POLYAMINE REGULATION IN YEAST: AN INTEGRATED MODELLING frameshifting mechanism. The resulting stochastic model is based on data obtained from specially designed model of the polyamine "controller" reproduces experimental data and predicts polyamine content under

  10. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    GEPS 21 members ? Provides probabilistic forecasts ? Can give useful outlooks for longer term weather forecasts ? Scribe matrix from GDPS ? includes UMOS post processed model data ? Variables like Temperature, humidity post processed by UMOS ? See...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products/ ? Link to experimental 3-day outlook of REPS quilts ? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products.reps Users can also make their own products from ensemble forecast data? Sample ascii matrix of 2m temperature could be fed...

  11. European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind Generation by a Dynamic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind. Abstract-Short-term wind power forecasting is recognized nowadays as a major requirement for a secure and economic integration of wind power in a power system. In the case of large-scale integration, end users

  12. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  13. ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005.................................................................................................................................3 PACIFIC GAS & ELECTRIC PLANNING AREA ........................................................................................9 Commercial Sector

  14. Model Evaluation and Hindcasting: An Experiment with an Integrated Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Kim, Son H.; Smith, Steven J.; Clarke, Leon E.; Zhou, Yuyu; Kyle, G. Page; Patel, Pralit L.

    2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Integrated assessment models have been extensively used for analyzing long term energy and greenhouse emissions trajectories and have influenced key policies on this subject. Though admittedly these models are focused on the long term trajectories, how well these models are able to capture historical dynamics is an open question. In a first experiment of its kind, we present a framework for evaluation of such integrated assessment models. We use Global Change Assessment Model for this zero order experiment, and focus on the building sector results for USA. We calibrate the model for 1990 and run it forward up to 2095 in five year time steps. This gives us results for 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 which we compare to observed historical data at both fuel level and service level. We focus on bringing out the key insights for the wider process of model evaluation through our experiment with GCAM. We begin with highlighting that creation of an evaluation dataset and identification of key evaluation metric is the foremost challenge in the evaluation process. Our analysis highlights that estimation of functional form of the relationship between energy service demand, which is an unobserved variable, and its drivers is a significant challenge in the absence of adequate historical data for both the dependent and driver variables. Historical data availability for key metrics is a serious limiting factor in the process of evaluation. Interestingly, service level data against which such models need to be evaluated are itself a result of models. Thus for energy services, the best we can do is compare our model results with other model results rather than observed and measured data. We show that long term models, by the nature of their construction, will most likely underestimate the rapid growth in some services observed in a short time span. Also, we learn that modeling saturated energy services like space heating is easier than modeling unsaturated services like space cooling and understanding that how far a service is from its saturation level is a key question which we probably don’t have an answer to. Finally and most importantly, even if long term models partially miss the short term dynamics, the long term insights provides by these models is fairly robust. We conclude by highlighting that our work is the first step in the much wider process of integrated assessment model evaluation and will hence have its own limitations. Future evaluation research work should build upon this zero order experiment for improving our modeling of human and coupled earth systems.

  15. A Distributed Multi-User Role-Based Model Integration Framework

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dorow, Kevin E.; Gorton, Ian; Thurman, David A.

    2004-06-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Integrated computational modeling can be very useful in making quick, yet informed decisions related to environmental issues including Brownfield assessments. Unfortunately, the process of creating meaningful information using this methodology is fraught with difficulties, particularly when multiple computational models are required. Common problems include the inability to seamlessly transfer information between models, the difficulty of incorporating new models and integrating heterogeneous data sources, executing large numbers of model runs in a reasonable time frame, and adequately capturing pedigree information that describes the specific computational steps and data required to reproduce results. While current model integration frameworks have successfully addressed some of these problems, none have addressed all of them. Building on existing work at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), we have created an extensible software architecture for the next generation of model integration frameworks that addresses these issues. This paper describes this architecture that is being developed to support integrated water resource modeling in a metropolitan area.

  16. On Integrating the M OBIUS and MODEST Modeling Tools Henrik Bohnenkampa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, University of

    On Integrating the M ¨OBIUS and MODEST Modeling Tools Henrik Bohnenkampa , Tod Courtneyb , David This tool paper presents the integration of the MODEST specification language into the M ¨OBIUS framework imple- mented in the M ¨OBIUS tool. The MODEST modeling language. MODEST [1] is a modeling language

  17. A FLEXIBLE, MODULAR APPROACH TO INTEGRATED SPACE EXPLORATION CAMPAIGN LOGISTICS MODELING, SIMULATION, AND ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Weck, Olivier L.

    A FLEXIBLE, MODULAR APPROACH TO INTEGRATED SPACE EXPLORATION CAMPAIGN LOGISTICS MODELING Students #12;2 A FLEXIBLE, MODULAR APPROACH TO INTEGRATED SPACE EXPLORATION CAMPAIGN LOGISTICS MODELING in Aeronautics and Astronautics #12;3 Abstract A space logistics modeling framework to support space exploration

  18. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission's final forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural gas demand Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand

  19. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    the California Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand

  20. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility

  1. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Research West Virginia University College of Business and Economics P.O. Box 6527, Morgantown, WV 26506 EXPERT OPINION PROVIDED BY Keith Burdette Cabinet Secretary West Virginia Department of Commerce

  2. Conservation The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    & Resources Creating Mr. Toad's Wild Ride for the PNW's Energy Efficiency InCreating Mr. Toad's Wild RideNorthwest Power and Conservation Council The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast ­­ Energy EfficiencyEnergy Efficiency Dominates ResourceDominates Resource DevelopmentDevelopment Tom EckmanTom Eckman

  3. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

    2015-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  4. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bel, G; Toots, M; Bandi, M M

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  5. Integrated Deployment Model: A Comprehensive Approach to Transforming the Energy Economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Werner, M.

    2010-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper describes the Integrated Deployment model to accelerate market adoption of alternative energy solutions to power homes, businesses, and vehicles through a comprehensive and aggressive approach.

  6. eMarketplace Model: An Architecture for Collaborative Supply Chain Management and Integration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Huhns, Michael N.

    1 eMarketplace Model: An Architecture for Collaborative Supply Chain Management and Integration.shen@nrc.gc.ca Abstract. The current economic climate forces businesses to collaborate more frequently and build efficient management and integration platform. It supports coordination mecha- nisms and integration at the business

  7. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-02-23T23:59:59.000Z

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  8. Integrable Gross-Neveu models with fermion-fermion and fermion-antifermion pairing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Michael Thies

    2014-08-23T23:59:59.000Z

    The massless Gross-Neveu and chiral Gross-Neveu models are well known examples of integrable quantum field theories in 1+1 dimensions. We address the question whether integrability is preserved if one either replaces the four-fermion interaction in fermion-antifermion channels by a dual interaction in fermion-fermion channels, or if one adds such a dual interaction to an existing integrable model. The relativistic Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov approach is adequate to deal with the large N limit of such models. In this way, we construct and solve three integrable models with Cooper pairing. We also identify a candidate for a fourth integrable model with maximal kinematic symmetry, the "perfect" Gross-Neveu model. This type of field theories can serve as exactly solvable toy models for color superconductivity in quantum chromodynamics.

  9. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency and Demand Analysis Division Scott W. Matthews Acting Executive

  10. Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Robert Stephen

    Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good Technical Report 47 September 1989 Computational Logic Inc the physical behavior of computer programs can reduce these risks for software engineering in the same way that it does for aerospace and other fields of engineering. Present forecasting capabilities for computer

  11. Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan [Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2014-09-12T23:59:59.000Z

    Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval.

  12. Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (IPSC) : FY10 development and integration.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Criscenti, Louise Jacqueline; Sassani, David Carl; Arguello, Jose Guadalupe, Jr.; Dewers, Thomas A.; Bouchard, Julie F.; Edwards, Harold Carter; Freeze, Geoffrey A.; Wang, Yifeng; Schultz, Peter Andrew

    2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes the progress in fiscal year 2010 in developing the Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (IPSC) in support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Campaign. The goal of the Waste IPSC is to develop an integrated suite of computational modeling and simulation capabilities to quantitatively assess the long-term performance of waste forms in the engineered and geologic environments of a radioactive waste storage or disposal system. The Waste IPSC will provide this simulation capability (1) for a range of disposal concepts, waste form types, engineered repository designs, and geologic settings, (2) for a range of time scales and distances, (3) with appropriate consideration of the inherent uncertainties, and (4) in accordance with robust verification, validation, and software quality requirements. Waste IPSC activities in fiscal year 2010 focused on specifying a challenge problem to demonstrate proof of concept, developing a verification and validation plan, and performing an initial gap analyses to identify candidate codes and tools to support the development and integration of the Waste IPSC. The current Waste IPSC strategy is to acquire and integrate the necessary Waste IPSC capabilities wherever feasible, and develop only those capabilities that cannot be acquired or suitably integrated, verified, or validated. This year-end progress report documents the FY10 status of acquisition, development, and integration of thermal-hydrologic-chemical-mechanical (THCM) code capabilities, frameworks, and enabling tools and infrastructure.

  13. HyperKhaler Metrics Building and Integrable Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    E. H. Saidi; M. B. Sedra

    2005-12-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Methods developed for the analysis of integrable systems are used to study the problem of hyperK\\"ahler metrics building as formulated in D=2 N=4 supersymmetric harmonic superspace. We show, in particular, that the constraint equation $\\beta\\partial^{++2}\\omega -\\xi^{++2}\\exp 2\\beta\\omega =0$ and its Toda like generalizations are integrable. Explicit solutions together with the conserved currents generating the symmetry responsible of the integrability of these equations are given. Other features are also discussed

  14. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS AND ANALYSES FOR THE 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Page Manager FOSSIL FUELS OFFICE Mike Smith Deputy Director FUELS AND TRANSPORTATION DIVISION Melissa, Weights and Measurements/Gary Castro, Allan Morrison, John Mough, Ed Williams Clean Energy FuelsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS AND ANALYSES FOR THE 2009 INTEGRATED

  15. Renewable Forecast Min-Max2020.xls

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's PossibleRadiation Protection Technical s o Freiberge s 3 c/)RenewableRenewable EnergyForecast of

  16. Analysis of Mesoscale Model Data for Wind Integration (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schwartz, M.; Elliott, D.; Lew, D.; Corbus, D.; Scott, G.; Haymes, S.; Wan, Y. H.

    2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Supports examination of implications of national 20% wind vision, and provides input to integration and transmission studies for operational impact of large penetrations of wind on the grid.

  17. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  18. Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

    2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

    A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

  19. A Process Model of Applicant Faking on Overt Integrity Tests 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yu, Janie

    2010-01-14T23:59:59.000Z

    ?????????????????????????? 37 Procedure?????????????????????????... 44 STUDY 1 RESULTS?..??????????????????????. 47 Descriptive statistics?????????????????????. 47 Manipulation checks?????????????????????. 47 Relationship between cognitions and intentions... Interaction between applicant faking behavior (SR) and applicant integrity test validity for CWB ?????????? 69 22 Interaction between impression management and applicant integrity test validity for CWB ?????????????? 69 1 INTRODUCTION...

  20. Reliability-yield allocation for semiconductor integrated circuits: modeling and optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ha, Chunghun

    2005-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This research develops yield and reliability models for fault-tolerant semiconductor integrated circuits and develops optimization algorithms that can be directly applied to these models. Since defects cause failures in microelectronics systems...

  1. Identi cation Tasking and Networking (ITN) Model For The FBI's Integrated Automated

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Murphy, John

    Identi cation Tasking and Networking (ITN) Model For The FBI's Integrated Automated Fingerprint September 29, 1994 Abstract This document describes the model developed for the ITN/FBI using the SES

  2. Integrated modelling of water availability and water use in the semi-arid Northeast of Brazil

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bronstert, Axel

    Integrated modelling of water availability and water use in the semi-arid Northeast of Brazil A: Bronstert 1 Integrated modelling of water availability and water use in the semi-arid Northeast of Brazil A con- straint for development in the semi-arid Northeast of Brazil. Quanti cation of natural water

  3. Exact Thermodynamics of the Uimin-Sutherland Model via Nonlinear Integral Equations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Damerau, Jens

    Exact Thermodynamics of the Uimin-Sutherland Model via Nonlinear Integral Equations Jens Damerau) Thermodynamics of the US Model ISQS 16, Prague 07 1 / 11 #12;Outline 1 Introduction Definition of the Uimin approach to thermodynamics Definition of suitable auxiliary functions Finite set of nonlinear integral

  4. The FIT Model - Fuel-cycle Integration and Tradeoffs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steven J. Piet; Nick R. Soelberg; Samuel E. Bays; Candido Pereira; Layne F. Pincock; Eric L. Shaber; Meliisa C Teague; Gregory M Teske; Kurt G Vedros

    2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    All mass streams from fuel separation and fabrication are products that must meet some set of product criteria – fuel feedstock impurity limits, waste acceptance criteria (WAC), material storage (if any), or recycle material purity requirements such as zirconium for cladding or lanthanides for industrial use. These must be considered in a systematic and comprehensive way. The FIT model and the “system losses study” team that developed it [Shropshire2009, Piet2010] are an initial step by the FCR&D program toward a global analysis that accounts for the requirements and capabilities of each component, as well as major material flows within an integrated fuel cycle. This will help the program identify near-term R&D needs and set longer-term goals. The question originally posed to the “system losses study” was the cost of separation, fuel fabrication, waste management, etc. versus the separation efficiency. In other words, are the costs associated with marginal reductions in separations losses (or improvements in product recovery) justified by the gains in the performance of other systems? We have learned that that is the wrong question. The right question is: how does one adjust the compositions and quantities of all mass streams, given uncertain product criteria, to balance competing objectives including cost? FIT is a method to analyze different fuel cycles using common bases to determine how chemical performance changes in one part of a fuel cycle (say used fuel cooling times or separation efficiencies) affect other parts of the fuel cycle. FIT estimates impurities in fuel and waste via a rough estimate of physics and mass balance for a set of technologies. If feasibility is an issue for a set, as it is for “minimum fuel treatment” approaches such as melt refining and AIROX, it can help to make an estimate of how performances would have to change to achieve feasibility.

  5. Integrated Assessment Modeling of Carbon Sequestration and Land Use Emissions Using Detailed Model Results and Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dr. Atul Jain

    2005-04-17T23:59:59.000Z

    This report outlines the progress on the development and application of Integrated Assessment Modeling of Carbon Sequestrations and Land Use Emissions supported by the DOE Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER), U.S. Department of Energy, Grant No. DOE-DE-FG02-01ER63069. The overall objective of this collaborative project between the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was to unite the latest advances in carbon cycle research with scientifically based models and policy-related integrated assessment tools that incorporate computationally efficient representations of the latest knowledge concerning science and emission trajectories, and their policy implications. As part of this research we accomplished the following tasks that we originally proposed: (1) In coordination with LLNL and ORNL, we enhanced the Integrated Science Assessment Model's (ISAM) parametric representation of the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycles that better represent spatial and seasonal variations, which are important to study the mechanisms that influence carbon sequestration in the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems; (2) Using the MiniCAM modeling capability, we revised the SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios; IPCC, 2000) land use emission scenarios; and (3) On the application front, the enhanced version of ISAM modeling capability is applied to understand how short- and long-term natural carbon fluxes, carbon sequestration, and human emissions contribute to the net global emissions (concentrations) trajectories required to reach various concentration (emission) targets. Under this grant, 21 research publications were produced. In addition, this grant supported a number of graduate and undergraduate students whose fundamental research was to learn a disciplinary field in climate change (e.g., ecological dynamics and ocean circulations) and then complete research on how this field could be linked to the other factors we need to consider in its dynamics (e.g., land use, ocean and terrestrial carbon sequestration and climate change).

  6. Integrating repositories with fuel cycles: The airport authority model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Forsberg, C. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307 (United States)

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The organization of the fuel cycle is a legacy of World War II and the cold war. Fuel cycle facilities were developed and deployed without consideration of the waste management implications. This led to the fuel cycle model of a geological repository site with a single owner, a single function (disposal), and no other facilities on site. Recent studies indicate large economic, safety, repository performance, nonproliferation, and institutional incentives to collocate and integrate all back-end facilities. Site functions could include geological disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) with the option for future retrievability, disposal of other wastes, reprocessing with fuel fabrication, radioisotope production, other facilities that generate significant radioactive wastes, SNF inspection (navy and commercial), and related services such as SNF safeguards equipment testing and training. This implies a site with multiple facilities with different owners sharing some facilities and using common facilities - the repository and SNF receiving. This requires a different repository site institutional structure. We propose development of repository site authorities modeled after airport authorities. Airport authorities manage airports with government-owned runways, collocated or shared public and private airline terminals, commercial and federal military facilities, aircraft maintenance bases, and related operations - all enabled and benefiting the high-value runway asset and access to it via taxi ways. With a repository site authority the high value asset is the repository. The SNF and HLW receiving and storage facilities (equivalent to the airport terminal) serve the repository, any future reprocessing plants, and others with needs for access to SNF and other wastes. Non-public special-built roadways and on-site rail lines (equivalent to taxi ways) connect facilities. Airport authorities are typically chartered by state governments and managed by commissions with members appointed by the state governor, county governments, and city governments. This structure (1) enables state and local governments to work together to maximize job and tax benefits to local communities and the state, (2) provides a mechanism to address local concerns such as airport noise, and (3) creates an institutional structure with large incentives to maximize the value of the common asset, the runway. A repository site authority would have a similar structure and be the local interface to any national waste management authority. (authors)

  7. web page: http://w3.pppl.gov/~ zakharov At the ground level of integrated modeling1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zakharov, Leonid E.

    web page: http://w3.pppl.gov/~ zakharov At the ground level of integrated modeling1 Leonid E-independent environment and integrating them with its capabilities (e.g., java). (f) . . . of other integrations (WEB of D

  8. Valuing Climate Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models: The MIT IGSM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reilly, John

    2012-05-22T23:59:59.000Z

    We discuss a strategy for investigating the impacts of climate change on Earth’s physical, biological and human resources and links to their socio-economic consequences. The features of the integrated global system framework ...

  9. Emissions of crustal material in air quality forecast systems: Use of satellite observations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Menut, Laurent

    Emissions of crustal material in air quality forecast systems: Use of satellite observations) Natural (dust, fires, volcanos) Meteorology: Transport, turbulence Clouds and radiation, precipitations Chemistry-transport model Gas and particles concentrations Use of model outputs: Analysis Direct: model vs

  10. Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

    We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

  11. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  12. USE OF AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL TO FORECAST DISSOLUTION EFFECTIVENESS, SAFETY IMPACTS, AND DOWNSTREAM PROCESSABILITY FROM OXALIC ACID AIDED SLUDGE REMOVAL IN SAVANNAH RIVER SITE HIGH LEVEL WASTE TANKS 1-15

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    KETUSKY, EDWARD

    2005-10-31T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis details a graduate research effort written to fulfill the Magister of Technologiae in Chemical Engineering requirements at the University of South Africa. The research evaluates the ability of equilibrium based software to forecast dissolution, evaluate safety impacts, and determine downstream processability changes associated with using oxalic acid solutions to dissolve sludge heels in Savannah River Site High Level Waste (HLW) Tanks 1-15. First, a dissolution model is constructed and validated. Coupled with a model, a material balance determines the fate of hypothetical worst-case sludge in the treatment and neutralization tanks during each chemical adjustment. Although sludge is dissolved, after neutralization more is created within HLW. An energy balance determines overpressurization and overheating to be unlikely. Corrosion induced hydrogen may overwhelm the purge ventilation. Limiting the heel volume treated/acid added and processing the solids through vitrification is preferred and should not significantly increase the number of glass canisters.

  13. A real time model to forecast 24 hours ahead, ozone peaks and exceedance levels. Model based on artificial neural networks, neural classifier and weather predictions.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    on artificial neural networks, neural classifier and weather predictions. Application in an urban atmosphere - will be solved. Keywords: Artificial neural network; Multilayer Perceptron; ozone modelling; statistical stepwise and Software 22, 9 (2007) 1261-1269" DOI : 10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.08.002 #12;Abstract A neural network combined

  14. Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennock, K.

    2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

  15. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  16. Short-term planning and forecasting for petroleum. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elkins, R.D.

    1988-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Defense Fuel Supply Center (DFSC) has, in recent past, been unable to adequately forecast for short-term petroleum requirements. This has resulted in inaccurate replenishment quantities and required short-notice corrections, which interrupted planned resupply methods. The relationship between the annual CINCLANTFLT DFM budget and sales from the the Norfolk Defense Fuel Support Point (DFSP) is developed and the past sales data from the Norfolk DFSP is used to construct seasonality indices. Finally, the budget/sales relationship is combined with the seasonality indices to provide a new forecasting model. The model is then compared with the current one for FY-88 monthly forecasts. The comparison suggests that the new model can provide accurate, timely requirements data and improve resupply of the Norfolk Defense Fuel Support Point.

  17. DYNAMIC MODELING Commercial Office Building Measurements and Dynamic Integrated

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mease, Kenneth D.

    in significantly increased consumption of natural gas (or other fuels). Implications: 1.Fuel risk · How do the gas infrastructure handle DG (both on the micro and macro scales)? 3.Natural gas or other fuel costs markets? Integration Issues: Regulation Regulation is necessary to make DG economical and safe

  18. Towards Integrated Design and Modeling of High Field Accelerator Magnets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Caspi, S.; Ferracin, P.

    2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The next generation of superconducting accelerator magnets will most likely use a brittle conductor (such as Nb{sub 3}Sn), generate fields around 18 T, handle forces that are 3-4 times higher than in the present LHC dipoles, and store energy that starts to make accelerator magnets look like fusion magnets. To meet the challenge and reduce the complexity, magnet design will have to be more innovative and better integrated. The recent design of several high field superconducting magnets have now benefited from the integration between CAD (e.g. ProE), magnetic analysis tools (e.g. TOSCA) and structural analysis tools (e.g. ANSYS). Not only it is now possible to address complex issues such as stress in magnet ends, but the analysis can be better detailed an extended into new areas previously too difficult to address. Integrated thermal, electrical and structural analysis can be followed from assembly and cool-down through excitation and quench propagation. In this paper we report on the integrated design approach, discuss analysis results and point out areas of future interest.

  19. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Northern Study Area.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy [WindLogics

    2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast

  20. MaramaEML: An Integrated Multi-View Business Process Modelling Environment with Tree-Overlays, Zoomable Interfaces and Code Generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grundy, John

    for integrating complex enterprise system models. (5) We have integrated a 3rd party LTSA engine to verify

  1. A Mobility Model for Cost Analysis in Integrated Cellular/WLANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Nirmala

    A Mobility Model for Cost Analysis in Integrated Cellular/WLANs Nirmala Shenoy, Bruce Hartpence, Information Technology Department, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester NY 14623, USA Rafael Mantilla that can be used to study the costs and benefits of integrating cellular and Wireless LANs, from a vendor

  2. Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power and applications of power market simulation models around the world. Argonne's software tools are used extensively

  3. Utility system integration and optimization models for nuclear power management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Deaton, Paul Ferris

    1973-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A nuclear power management model suitable for nuclear utility systems optimization has been developed for use in multi-reactor fuel management planning over periods of up to ten years. The overall utility planning model ...

  4. Integrated modelling and assessment of regional groundwater resources in Germany and Benin, West Africa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cirpka, Olaf Arie

    1 Integrated modelling and assessment of regional groundwater resources in Germany and Benin, West.J.S. SONNEVELD [1] Institute of Hydraulic Engineering, Universitaet Stuttgart, Germany (Roland Conservation University of Bonn, Germany [3] Institute of Landscape Planning and Ecology, University

  5. Modeling a solar energy collector with an integrated phase-change material

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guerra, Alexander Adrian

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this thesis, a finite-element computer model was created to simulate a solar air heater with an integrated-phase change material. The commercially available finite element package ADINA-Fluid was used to generate the ...

  6. Integrated Water Management and Modeling at Multiple Spatial Scales David Ezechiel Rosenberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lund, Jay R.

    Integrated Water Management and Modeling at Multiple Spatial Scales Abstract Water shortages from actions that minimize costs or maximize benefits across a variety of water shortage conditions, describe interdependencies when adopting multiple actions together. Fourth, list the shortage or water

  7. Emissions and Energy: An Integral Approach Using an Online Energy Management and Optimization Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ruiz, D.; Ruiz, C.; Santollani, O.; Reitmeier, T.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    examples and results corresponding to the application of such systems to refineries will be discussed. In addition, the integration of CO2 emission costs and constraints into the online energy system models and their optimization is also explained....

  8. Integrated environmental degradation model for Fe-Ni-Cr alloys in irradiated aqueous solutions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pleune, Thomas Todd, 1974-

    1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    An integrated model has been developed to evaluate the effect of reactor flux, fluence, and other operating conditions on crack growth rates in austenitic stainless steels in boiling water reactor (BWR) environments. The ...

  9. Introducing WISDEM:An Integrated System Modeling for Wind Turbines and Plant (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dykes, K.; Graf, P.; Scott, G.; Ning, A.; King, R.; Guo, Y.; Parsons, T.; Damiani, R.; Felker, F.; Veers, P.

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The National Wind Technology Center wind energy systems engineering initiative has developed an analysis platform to leverage its research capabilities toward integrating wind energy engineering and cost models across wind plants. This Wind-Plant Integrated System Design & Engineering Model (WISDEM) platform captures the important interactions between various subsystems to achieve a better National Wind Technology Center wind energy systems engineering initiative has developed an analysis platform to leverage its research capabilities toward integrating wind energy engineering and cost models across wind plants. This Wind-Plant Integrated System Design & Engineering Model (WISDEM) platform captures the important interactions between various subsystems to achieve a better understanding of how to improve system-level performance and achieve system-level cost reductions. This work illustrates a few case studies with WISDEM that focus on the design and analysis of wind turbines and plants at different system levels.

  10. Integrating Models and Simulations of Continuous Dynamics into SysML

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    In this paper, we combine modeling constructs from SysML and Modelica to improve the support for Model, structures, functions, and behaviors. Complementing these SysML constructs, the Modelica language has emerged and the corresponding Modelica models; and the integration of simulation experiments with other SysML constructs

  11. An Agent-Based Model for Integrated Contagion and Regulation of Negative Mood

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Treur, Jan

    An Agent-Based Model for Integrated Contagion and Regulation of Negative Mood Azizi Ab Aziz, Jan. Computational contagion models usually do not take into account such regulation. This paper introduces an agent behaviours as posed in the literature. Keywords: emotion contagion and regulation, agent-based model 1

  12. An integrated modelling approach for in vitro to in vivo extrapolations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    1 / 25 An integrated modelling approach for in vitro to in vivo extrapolations Frédéric Y. Bois 1 physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models able to simulate concentration-time profiles in human or rat of Mathematical Modelling for Systems Toxicology, Royallieu Research Centre, BP 20529, 60205 Compiegne Cedex

  13. Integrating Empirical-Modeling Approaches to Improve Understanding of Terrestrial Ecology Processes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCarthy, Heather [University of Oklahoma; Luo, Yiqi [University of Oklahoma; Wullschleger, Stan D [ORNL

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Recent decades have seen tremendous increases in the quantity of empirical ecological data collected by individual investigators, as well as through research networks such as FLUXNET (Baldocchi et al., 2001). At the same time, advances in computer technology have facilitated the development and implementation of large and complex land surface and ecological process models. Separately, each of these information streams provides useful, but imperfect information about ecosystems. To develop the best scientific understanding of ecological processes, and most accurately predict how ecosystems may cope with global change, integration of empirical and modeling approaches is necessary. However, true integration - in which models inform empirical research, which in turn informs models (Fig. 1) - is not yet common in ecological research (Luo et al., 2011). The goal of this workshop, sponsored by the Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program, was to bring together members of the empirical and modeling communities to exchange ideas and discuss scientific practices for increasing empirical - model integration, and to explore infrastructure and/or virtual network needs for institutionalizing empirical - model integration (Yiqi Luo, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA). The workshop included presentations and small group discussions that covered topics ranging from model-assisted experimental design to data driven modeling (e.g. benchmarking and data assimilation) to infrastructure needs for empirical - model integration. Ultimately, three central questions emerged. How can models be used to inform experiments and observations? How can experimental and observational results be used to inform models? What are effective strategies to promote empirical - model integration?

  14. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime-Switching

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genton, Marc G.

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at a wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime. Geographically dispersed was applied to 2-hour-ahead forecasts of hourly average wind speed near the Stateline wind energy center

  15. Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone Vivien Mallet1 21 September 2006. [1] The potential of ensemble techniques to improve ozone forecasts ozone-monitoring networks. We found that several linear combinations of models have the potential

  16. Biennial Assessment of the Fifth Power Plan Interim Report on Electric Price Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    because natural gas fired electric generating plants are on the margin much of the time in Western marketsBiennial Assessment of the Fifth Power Plan Interim Report on Electric Price Forecasts Electricity prices in the Council's Power Plan are forecast using the AURORATM Electricity Market Model of the entire

  17. Forecasting the Hourly Ontario Energy Price by Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cañizares, Claudio A.

    1 Forecasting the Hourly Ontario Energy Price by Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines H. In this paper, the MARS technique is applied to forecast the hourly Ontario energy price (HOEP). The MARS models values of the latest pre- dispatch price and demand information, made available by the Ontario

  18. Short Term Hourly Load Forecasting Using Abductive Networks R. E. Abdel-Aal

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Physical Sciences, Research Institute, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi for forecasting next-day hourly loads have been developed. Evaluated on data for the 6th year, the models give. INTRODUCTION Accurate load forecasting is a key requirement for the planning and economic and secure operation

  19. The Incremental Benefits of the Nearest Neighbor Forecast of U.S. Energy Commodity Prices 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kudoyan, Olga

    2012-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis compares the simple Autoregressive (AR) model against the k- Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) model to make a point forecast of five energy commodity prices. Those commodities are natural gas, heating oil, gasoline, ethanol, and crude oil...

  20. The Incremental Benefits of the Nearest Neighbor Forecast of U.S. Energy Commodity Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kudoyan, Olga

    2012-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis compares the simple Autoregressive (AR) model against the k- Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) model to make a point forecast of five energy commodity prices. Those commodities are natural gas, heating oil, gasoline, ethanol, and crude oil...

  1. On the breakdown of perturbative integrability in large N matrix models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thomas Klose

    2005-07-21T23:59:59.000Z

    We study the perturbative integrability of the planar sector of a massive SU(N) matrix quantum mechanical theory with global SO(6) invariance and Yang-Mills-like interaction. This model arises as a consistent truncation of maximally supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory on a three-sphere to the lowest modes of the scalar fields. In fact, our studies mimic the current investigations concerning the integrability properties of this gauge theory. Like in the field theory we can prove the planar integrability of the SO(6) model at first perturbative order. At higher orders we restrict ourselves to the widely studied SU(2) subsector spanned by two complexified scalar fields of the theory. We show that our toy model satisfies all commonly studied integrability requirements such as degeneracies in the spectrum, existence of conserved charges and factorized scattering up to third perturbative order. These are the same qualitative features as the ones found in super Yang-Mills theory, which were enough to conjecture the all-loop integrability of that theory. For the SO(6) model, however, we show that these properties are not sufficient to predict higher loop integrability. In fact, we explicitly demonstrate the breakdown of perturbative integrability at fourth order.

  2. Final Report for Integrated Multiscale Modeling of Molecular Computing Devices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Glotzer, Sharon C.

    2013-08-28T23:59:59.000Z

    In collaboration with researchers at Vanderbilt University, North Carolina State University, Princeton and Oakridge National Laboratory we developed multiscale modeling and simulation methods capable of modeling the synthesis, assembly, and operation of molecular electronics devices. Our role in this project included the development of coarse-grained molecular and mesoscale models and simulation methods capable of simulating the assembly of millions of organic conducting molecules and other molecular components into nanowires, crossbars, and other organized patterns.

  3. advanced integrated modeling: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    . . . . 18 3.4.1 Heat Exchanger - Code description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 3.4.2 Simulation ResultsADVANCED POWER PLANT MODELING WITH APPLICATIONS TO THE ADVANCED BOILING...

  4. Integrated Global System Modeling Framework | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are beingZealand Jump to: navigation, search OpenEIHesperia,IDGWPIndiantown,Innoferm GmbHCaltech CenterArea,Integrated

  5. Integrated Mathematical Modeling Software Series of Vehicle Propulsion

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels DataDepartment of Energy Your Density Isn't YourTransport(FactDepartment of EnergyIndustry Research Project IntegratedSystem: (1)

  6. Integrating Tactile and Force Feedback with Finite Element Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , impedances of robot arms, and the computational model. We also describe an implementation of a compliance rendering system combining a low-impedance robot arm for large workspace kinesthetic force feedback, a high on a low-impedance robot arm, used here as a force feedback device. A real-time FEM model accepts user

  7. Integration of Different Wave Forcing Formulations with Nearshore Circulation Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sharma, Abhishek

    2012-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Wave-induced circulation in general coastal environments is simulated by coupling two widely-used finite-element models, namely, a refraction-diffraction-reflection model based on the elliptic mild-slope equation, and a two-dimensional (depth...

  8. ForReviewers Integrating Theoretical Components: A Graphical Model for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Prather, Chelse M.

    , especially with younger researchers. Failure to understand prior work can lead to85 wasted research effort in particular217 environments with minimizing heat stress in those environments. In order to translate218 that model into testable hypotheses, the researcher utilizes thermodynamics models of219 heat exchange

  9. Basic Integrative Models for Offshore Wind Turbine Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aljeeran, Fares

    2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

    were modeled using apparent fixity level, Randolph elastic continuum, and modified cone models. The offshore wind turbine structures were developed using a finite element formulation. A two-bladed 3.0 megawatt (MW) and a three-bladed 1.5 MW capacity...

  10. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  11. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  12. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  13. A Kalman-filter bias correction of ozone deterministic, ensemble-averaged, and probabilistic forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monache, L D; Grell, G A; McKeen, S; Wilczak, J; Pagowski, M O; Peckham, S; Stull, R; McHenry, J; McQueen, J

    2006-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Kalman filtering (KF) is used to postprocess numerical-model output to estimate systematic errors in surface ozone forecasts. It is implemented with a recursive algorithm that updates its estimate of future ozone-concentration bias by using past forecasts and observations. KF performance is tested for three types of ozone forecasts: deterministic, ensemble-averaged, and probabilistic forecasts. Eight photochemical models were run for 56 days during summer 2004 over northeastern USA and southern Canada as part of the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation New England Air Quality (AQ) Study. The raw and KF-corrected predictions are compared with ozone measurements from the Aerometric Information Retrieval Now data set, which includes roughly 360 surface stations. The completeness of the data set allowed a thorough sensitivity test of key KF parameters. It is found that the KF improves forecasts of ozone-concentration magnitude and the ability to predict rare events, both for deterministic and ensemble-averaged forecasts. It also improves the ability to predict the daily maximum ozone concentration, and reduces the time lag between the forecast and observed maxima. For this case study, KF considerably improves the predictive skill of probabilistic forecasts of ozone concentration greater than thresholds of 10 to 50 ppbv, but it degrades it for thresholds of 70 to 90 ppbv. Moreover, KF considerably reduces probabilistic forecast bias. The significance of KF postprocessing and ensemble-averaging is that they are both effective for real-time AQ forecasting. KF reduces systematic errors, whereas ensemble-averaging reduces random errors. When combined they produce the best overall forecast.

  14. 1995 shipment review & five year forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fetherolf, D.J. Jr. [East Penn Manufacturing Co., Inc., Lyon Station, PA (United States)

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes the 1995 battery shipment review and five year forecast for the battery market. Historical data is discussed.

  15. Human Growth and Body Weight Dynamics: An Integrative Systems Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rahmandad, Hazhir

    Quantifying human weight and height dynamics due to growth, aging, and energy balance can inform clinical practice and policy analysis. This paper presents the first mechanism-based model spanning full individual life and ...

  16. Radiolysis Model Formulation for Integration with the Mixed Potential...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Mixed Potential Model Re-direct Destination: The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), Office of Fuel Cycle Technology has established the Used Fuel...

  17. Integrated experimental and modeling study of the ionic conductivity...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    modeling study of the ionic conductivity of samaria-doped ceria thin films. Abstract: Oxygen diffusion and ionic conductivity of samaria-doped ceria (SDC) thin films have been...

  18. Basic Integrative Models for Offshore Wind Turbine Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aljeeran, Fares

    2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

    This research study developed basic dynamic models that can be used to accurately predict the response behavior of a near-shore wind turbine structure with monopile, suction caisson, or gravity-based foundation systems. The marine soil conditions...

  19. Integrating Comprehensive Air Quality Modeling with Policy Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    electricity demand. Many of generators are uncontrolled diesel engines which have a high social cost. Adding Electricity Generation Elisabeth Anne Gilmore Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements Air Quality Modeling with Policy Analysis: Applications for Distributed Electricity Generation

  20. Integral equation models for thermoacoustic imaging of dissipative tissue

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kowar, Richard

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In case of non-dissipative tissue the inverse problem of thermoacoustic imaging basically consists of two inverse problems. First, a function $\\phi$ depending on the \\emph{electromagnetic absorption function}, is estimated from one of three types of projections (spherical, circular or planar) and secondly, the \\emph{electromagnetic absorption function} is estimated from $\\phi$. In case of dissipative tissue, it is no longer possible to calculate explicitly the projection of $\\phi$ from the respective pressure data (measured by point, planar or line detectors). The goal of this paper is to derive for each of the three types of pressure data, an integral equation that allows estimating the respective projection of $\\phi$. The advantage of this approach is that all known reconstruction formulas for $\\phi$ from the respective projection can be exploited.

  1. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  2. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility Planning Area Energy Policy Report. The forecast includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low

  3. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. This information is then applied to stitch images together into largermore »views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  4. Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM): Research Experience in System Integration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Shu-Ching

    Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM): Research Experience in System Integration 1 Shu International University, Miami, FL 33199, USA hamids@fiu.edu ABSTRACT The Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model on probabilistic assessment of insured hurricane wind risk to residential properties and has successfully passed

  5. Regarding Compass Response Functions For Modeling Path Integration: Comment on "Evolving a

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    275 Regarding Compass Response Functions For Modeling Path Integration: Comment on "Evolving neural model of the animal behavior known as path integra- tion, a navigation process requiring a compass mention of the simi- larity of their compass sensors to the known properties of the polarization

  6. Integrating the Document Object Model with Hyperlinks for Enhanced Topic Distillation and Information Extraction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chakrabarti, Soumen

    Integrating the Document Object Model with Hyperlinks for Enhanced Topic Distillation://www.cse.iitb.ernet.in/~soumen ABSTRACT Topic distillation is the process of finding authoritative Web pages and comprehensive "hubs distillation has been traditionally applied to a macroscopic Web model where documents are nodes in a directed

  7. Model-Integrated Embedded Systems Akos Ledeczi, Arpad Bakay, and Miklos Maroti

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maróti, Miklós

    and systems management during the entire life cycle of the system [7]. Partly to accomplish these and also software systems. Making the design- time models available at run-time benefits the development of dynamicModel-Integrated Embedded Systems Akos Ledeczi, Arpad Bakay, and Miklos Maroti Institute

  8. Development of a new model to predict indoor daylighting : integration in CODYRUN software and validation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    1 Development of a new model to predict indoor daylighting : integration in CODYRUN software in the scientific literature for determining indoor daylighting values. They are classified in three categories. The originality of our paper relies on the coupling of several simplified models of indoor daylighting

  9. Integrated Estimation and Tracking of Performance Model Parameters with Autoregressive Trends

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Woodside, C. Murray

    1 Integrated Estimation and Tracking of Performance Model Parameters with Autoregressive Trends Tao the model parameters can be tracked by an estimator such as a Kalman Filter, so that decisions can excessive cost (as is usually the case for the CPU time of a service). Because there may be significant

  10. VIRTUAL REALITY DRIVING SIMULATION: Integrating Infrastructure Plans, Traffic Models, and Driving Behaviors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to include 3D models, animated traffic and human characters, as well as functions that allow users to take-1- VIRTUAL REALITY DRIVING SIMULATION: Integrating Infrastructure Plans, Traffic Models@forum8.co.jp Summary: This paper presents a virtual reality (VR) system that enables large

  11. Coupling of Integrated Biosphere Simulator to Regional Climate Model version 3

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Winter, Jonathan (Jonathan Mark)

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Presented in this thesis is a description of the coupling of Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) to Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3), and an assessment of the coupled model (RegCM3-IBIS). RegCM3 is a 3-dimensional, ...

  12. An Exact Modeling of Signal Statistics in Energy-integrating X-ray Computed Tomography

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    An Exact Modeling of Signal Statistics in Energy-integrating X-ray Computed Tomography Yi Fan1 used by modern computed tomography (CT) scanners and has been an interesting research topic 1. INTRODUCTION In x-ray computed tomography (CT), Poisson noise model has been widely used in noise

  13. A Flexible Climate Model For Use In Integrated Assessments Andrei P. Sokolov and Peter H. Stone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    penetration into the deep ocean is comparable with that of other significant uncertainties. 1. Introduction with coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) because of their tremendous computer resource with a diffusive ocean model developed for use in the integrated framework of the MIT Joint Program on the Science

  14. Integrated Design of Simulation Models for Passive Houses Petr Novak, Radek Sindelar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Integrated Design of Simulation Models for Passive Houses Petr Nov´ak, Radek Sindel´ar Christian. The use-case shows that the design of simulation models for passive houses can be user-friendly and feasible even for non-experts as it is based on a graphical tool that enables to draw a passive house floor

  15. Urban Form Energy Use and Emissions in China: Preliminary Findings and Model Proof of Concept

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aden, Nathaniel

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    China's building sector--A review of energy and climate models forecast,China's building sector--A review of energy and climate models forecast,

  16. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Southern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)--Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute – 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 – 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 – 3 hours.

  17. Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dalang, Robert C.

    Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract] Nicolas Gast EPFL, IC generation. The use of energy storage compensates to some extent these negative effects; it plays a buffer role between demand and production. We revisit a model of real storage proposed by Bejan et al.[1]. We

  18. Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cerpa, Alberto E.

    Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

  19. What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamill, Tom

    1 What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from ensemble Kalman filters? Tom from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due to the model (e.g., stochas2c physics as error; part of spread growth from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due

  20. Multi-touch Interfaces for Content-Based Video Searches | U.S. Geoscience Information Network (GIN) and Convergence towards Global Data Integration in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Narasayya, Vivek

    , navigators, and routes. | Water Resource Model Interoperability | TeraPixel: A Spherical Image of the Sky | Capturing the Long Tail of Sensor Web | Forecasting Changes in Urban Land Use with Bing Maps | Towards GeoS3, Decisions, and Actions | Seamless Integration and Visualization of Heterogeneous and Distributed Earth

  1. Integrated C3 Feedstock and Aggregated Distillation Model for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grossmann, Ignacio E.

    Polypropylene Propane return Reactor effluent Distillation Polymerization FeedTank Propylene (91%) Goal: Select rates Constraints on composition of Propane Return, Distillation Overhead & Reactor Feed Limits Distillation Model Relates overhead composition of propane with flowrate of propane feed to the splitter

  2. Incorporating carbon capture and storage technologies in integrated assessment models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and storage of CO2 from electric power plants. The electric power sector accounts for a substant a methodology for incorporating technologies into computable general equilibrium economic models and demonstrate; Climate; Technology; General equilibrium; Diffusion 1. Introduction Over the past century, technological

  3. Integrated pore blockage-cake filtration model for crossflow filtration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Daniel, Richard C.; Billing, Justin M.; Russell, Renee L.; Shimskey, Rick W.; Smith, Harry D.; Peterson, Reid A.

    2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Crossflow filtration is to be a key process in the treatment and disposal of approximately 60,000 metric tons of high-level radioactive waste stored at the Hanford Site in Richland, Washington. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is assessing filter performance with waste simulant materials that mimic the chemical and physical properties of Hanford tank waste. Prior simulant studies indicated that waste filtration performance may be limited by pore and cake fouling. To limit the shutdown of waste treatment operations, the pre-treatment facility plans to recover filter flux losses from cake formation and filter fouling by frequently backpulsing the filter elements. The objective of the current paper is to develop a simple model of flux decline resulting from cake and pore fouling and potential flux recovery through backpulsing of the filters for Hanford waste filtration operations. To this end, a model capable of characterizing the decline in waste-simulant filter flux as a function of both irreversible pore blockage and reversible cake formation is proposed. This model is used to characterize the filtration behavior of Hanford waste simulants in both continuous and backpulsed operations. The model is then used to infer the optimal backpulse frequency under specific operating conditions.

  4. Integrated biomechanical model of cells embedded in extracellular matrix

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Muddana, Hari Shankar

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    of cells, which in turn gives rise to the characteristic form for the organism. Morphogenesis is a multi-scale modeling problem that can be studied at the molecular, cellular, and tissue levels. Here, we study the problem of morphogenesis at the cellular...

  5. Calculator simplifies field production forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bixler, B.

    1982-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of forecasting future field production from an assumed average well production schedule and drilling schedule has been programmed for the HP-41C hand-held programmable computer. No longer must tedious row summations be made by hand for staggered well production schedules. Details of the program are provided.

  6. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    modeling of solar steam- generators, solar water heating systems, Heating Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems, wind speed predictions, control in power generation systems,

  7. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What'sis Taking Over OurThe Iron SpinPrincetonUsingWhat is abig world of tinyWind Industry

  8. RECENT JOURNAL ARTICLES and BOOK CHAPTERS Bertram Gallant, T., & Drinan, P. (in press). Toward a Model of Academic Integrity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kritsuk, Alexei

    RECENT JOURNAL ARTICLES and BOOK CHAPTERS Bertram Gallant, T., & Drinan, P. (in press). Toward a Model of Academic Integrity Institutionalization: Informing Practice in Higher Education. Canadian, T. & Drinan, P. (2006). Institutionalizing academic integrity: Administrator perceptions

  9. PERFORMANCE MODELING OF DAYLIGHT INTEGRATED PHOTOSENSOR- CONTROLLED LIGHTING SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. Jain; R. R. Creasey; J. Himmelspach; K. P. White; M. Fu; Richard G. Mistrick

    Some building energy codes now require the incorporation of daylight into buildings and automatic photosensor-controlled switching or dimming of the electric lighting system in areas that receive daylight. This paper describes enhancements to the open-source Daysim daylight analysis software that permit users to model a photosensor control system as it will perform in a real space, considering the directional sensitivity of the photosensor, its mounting position, the space and daylight aperture geometry, window shading configuration; the electric lighting equipment and control zones; exterior obstructions; and site weather conditions. System output includes assessment of the daylight distribution in a space throughout the year, the photosensor’s ability to properly track the daylight and modify electric lighting system output, and the energy savings provided by the modeled control system. The application of daylight coefficients permits annual simulations to be conducted efficiently using hourly or finer weather data time increments. 1

  10. CASTING DEFECT MODELING IN AN INTEGRATED COMPUTATIONAL MATERIALS ENGINEERING APPROACH

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sabau, Adrian S [ORNL

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    To accelerate the introduction of new cast alloys, the simultaneous modeling and simulation of multiphysical phenomena needs to be considered in the design and optimization of mechanical properties of cast components. The required models related to casting defects, such as microporosity and hot tears, are reviewed. Three aluminum alloys are considered A356, 356 and 319. The data on calculated solidification shrinkage is presented and its effects on microporosity levels discussed. Examples are given for predicting microporosity defects and microstructure distribution for a plate casting. Models to predict fatigue life and yield stress are briefly highlighted here for the sake of completion and to illustrate how the length scales of the microstructure features as well as porosity defects are taken into account for modeling the mechanical properties. Thus, the data on casting defects, including microstructure features, is crucial for evaluating the final performance-related properties of the component. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was performed under a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with the Nemak Inc., and Chrysler Co. for the project "High Performance Cast Aluminum Alloys for Next Generation Passenger Vehicle Engines. The author would also like to thank Amit Shyam for reviewing the paper and Andres Rodriguez of Nemak Inc. Research sponsored by the U. S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office, as part of the Propulsion Materials Program under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with UT-Battelle, LLC. Part of this research was conducted through the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's High Temperature Materials Laboratory User Program, which is sponsored by the U. S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Program.

  11. EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology -

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    the fluctuating output from wind farms into power plant dispatching and energy trading, wind power predictionsEWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology 1 The Anemos Wind Power a professional, flexible platform for operating wind power prediction models, laying the main focus on state

  12. Integrated 3D Acid Fracturing Model for Carbonate Reservoir Stimulation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wu, Xi

    2014-06-23T23:59:59.000Z

    workflow is illustrated in Figure 3.3. The approach starts with a fracture simulator, which uses a geomechanical model, to calculate fracture width during the pad injection. A hydraulic fracture is created at the defined injection condition. Next, we... be directly found from the output of Fracpro. Table 3.1 shows an output file example from Fracpro for a fracture geometry at the end of a pad injection. The geometry data is restored in an “.fpx” file, named “PROJECT_NAME.fpx” and can be read using any text...

  13. Solvable and/or integrable many-body models on a circle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oksana Bihun; Francesco Calogero

    2014-07-08T23:59:59.000Z

    Various many-body models are treated, which describe $N$ points confined to move on a plane circle. Their Newtonian equations of motion ("accelerations equal forces") are integrable, i. e. they allow the explicit exhibition of $N$ constants of motion in terms of the dependent variables and their time-derivatives. Some of these models are moreover solvable by purely algebraic operations, by (explicitly performable) quadratures and, finally, by functional inversions. The techniques to manufacture these models are not new; some of these models are themselves new; others are reinterpretations of known models.

  14. Regional dust model performance during SAMUM 2006 K. Haustein,1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    established forecast model delivering daily products for North Africa, Europe, Middle East and Asia http

  15. A modeling study of the PMK-NVH integral test facility

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mavko, B.; Parzer, I.; Petelin, S. (Jozef Stefan Inst., Ljubljana (Slovenia))

    1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A way of modeling the PMK-NVH integral test facility with RELAP5 thermal-hydraulic code is presented. Two code versions, MOD2/36.05 and MOD3 5m5, are compared and assessed. Modeling is demonstrated for the International Atomic Energy Agency standard problem exercise no. 2, a small-break loss-of-coolant accident, performed on the PMK-NVH integral test facility. Three parametric studies of the break vicinity modeling are outlined, testing different ways of connecting the cold leg and hydroaccumulator to the downcomer and determining proper energy loss discharge coefficients at the break. Further, the nodalization study compared four different RELAP5 models, varying from a detailed one with more than 100 nodes, down to the miniature one, with only [approximately] 30 nodes. Modeling of some VVER-440 features, such as horizontal steam generators and hot-leg loop seal, is discussed.

  16. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  17. NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Guebuem

    NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power Yuewei of these modeling technologies w.r.t. wind energy applications. Then I'll discuss wind farm

  18. Air-Conditioning Effect Estimation for Mid-Term Forecasts of Tunisian Electricity Consumption

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Air-Conditioning Effect Estimation for Mid-Term Forecasts of Tunisian Electricity Consumption Tunisian electricity consumption (the residential sector represents 68% of this class of consumers). Nevertheless, with the Tunisian electricity consumption context, models elaborating which take account weather

  19. Freeway Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting by Considering Traffic Volatility Dynamics and Missing Data Situations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Yanru

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    , assuming constant variance when perform forecasting. This method does not consider the volatility nature of traffic flow data. This paper demonstrated that the variance part of traffic flow data is not constant, and dependency exists. A volatility model...

  20. AIR QUALITY ENSEMBLE FORECAST COUPLING ARPEGE AND CHIMERE OVER WESTERN EUROPE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Menut, Laurent

    AIR QUALITY ENSEMBLE FORECAST COUPLING ARPEGE AND CHIMERE OVER WESTERN EUROPE Carvalho of the results encountered on numerical weather prediction ensemble runs has encouraged the air quality modellers' community to test the same methodology to foresee air pollutants concentrations

  1. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    transport and  numerical weather modeling.   J.  Applied cross correlations.    Weather and Forecasting, 8:4, 401?of radiation for numerical weather prediction and climate 

  2. Application of Fast Marching Methods for Rapid Reservoir Forecast and Uncertainty Quantification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Olalotiti-Lawal, Feyisayo

    2013-05-17T23:59:59.000Z

    Rapid economic evaluations of investment alternatives in the oil and gas industry are typically contingent on fast and credible evaluations of reservoir models to make future forecasts. It is often important to also quantify inherent risks...

  3. Forecasting the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index futures price: interest rates, dividend yields, and cointegration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fritsch, Roger Erwin

    1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    forward price series is constructed using interest rate and dividend yield data. Out-of-sample forecasts from error correction models are compared to those from vector autoregressions (VAR) fit to levels and VARs fit to first differences. This comparison...

  4. Reference wind farm selection for regional wind power prediction models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    1 Reference wind farm selection for regional wind power prediction models Nils Siebert George.siebert@ensmp.fr, georges.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract Short-term wind power forecasting is recognized today as a major requirement for a secure and economic integration of wind generation in power systems. This paper deals

  5. Hybrid methodology for hourly global radiation forecasting in Mediterranean area

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Voyant, Cyril; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie Laure

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The renewable energies prediction and particularly global radiation forecasting is a challenge studied by a growing number of research teams. This paper proposes an original technique to model the insolation time series based on combining Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. While ANN by its non-linear nature is effective to predict cloudy days, ARMA techniques are more dedicated to sunny days without cloud occurrences. Thus, three hybrids models are suggested: the first proposes simply to use ARMA for 6 months in spring and summer and to use an optimized ANN for the other part of the year; the second model is equivalent to the first but with a seasonal learning; the last model depends on the error occurred the previous hour. These models were used to forecast the hourly global radiation for five places in Mediterranean area. The forecasting performance was compared among several models: the 3 above mentioned models, the best ANN and ARMA for each location. In t...

  6. DEFENDER: Detecting and Forecasting Epidemics using Novel Data-analytics for Enhanced Response

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simmie, Donal; Hankin, Chris

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In recent years social and news media have increasingly been used to explain patterns in disease activity and progression. Social media data, principally from the Twitter network, has been shown to correlate well with official disease case counts. This fact has been exploited to provide advance warning of outbreak detection, tracking of disease levels and the ability to predict the likelihood of individuals developing symptoms. In this paper we introduce DEFENDER, a software system that integrates data from social and news media and incorporates algorithms for outbreak detection, situational awareness, syndromic case tracking and forecasting. As part of this system we have developed a technique for creating a location network for any country or region based purely on Twitter data. We also present a disease count tracking approach which leverages counts from multiple symptoms, which was found to improve the tracking of diseases by 37 percent over a model that used only previous case data. Finally we attempt to...

  7. Model documentation Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-02-26T23:59:59.000Z

    The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) of the National Energy Modeling System is developed and maintained by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. This report documents the archived version of the NGTDM that was used to produce the natural gas forecasts presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 1996, (DOE/EIA-0383(96)). The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic approach, and provides detail on the methodology employed. Previously this report represented Volume I of a two-volume set. Volume II reported on model performance, detailing convergence criteria and properties, results of sensitivity testing, comparison of model outputs with the literature and/or other model results, and major unresolved issues.

  8. Dilaton-scalar models in context of generalized affine gravity theories: their properties and integrability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Davydov, E A

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Nowadays it is widely accepted that the evolution of the universe was driven by some scalar degrees of freedom both on its early stage and at present. The corresponding cosmological models often involve some scalar fields introduced ad hoc. In this paper we cultivate a different approach, which is based on a derivation of new scalar degrees of freedom from fundamental modifications of Einstein's gravity. In elaboration of our previous work, we here investigate properties of the dilaton-scalar gravity obtained by dimensional reductions of a recently proposed affine generalized gravity theory. We show that these models possess the same symmetries as related models of GR with ordinary scalar fields. As a result, for a rather general class of dilaton-scalar gravity models we construct additional first integrals and formulate an integral equation well suited for solving by iterations.

  9. Development of the integrated environmental control model. Quarterly progress report, April 1995--June 1995

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kalagnanam, J.R.; Rubin, E.S.

    1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The purpose of this contract is to develop and refine the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM). In its current configuration, the IECM provides a capability to model various conventional and advanced processes for controlling air pollutant emissions from coal-fired power plants before, during, or after combustion. The principal purpose of the model is to calculate the performance, emissions, and cost of power plant configurations employing alternative environmental control methods. The model consists of various control technology modules, which may be integrated into a complete utility plant in any desired combination. In contrast to conventional deterministic models, the IECM offers the unique capability to assign probabilistic values to all model input parameters, and to obtain probabilistic outputs in the form of cumulative distribution functions indicating the likelihood of different costs and performance results. The work in this contract is divided into two phases. Phase I deals with further developing the existing version of the IECM and training PETC personnel on the effective use of the model. Phase H deals with creating new technology modules, linking the IECM with PETC databases, and training PETC personnel on the effective use of the updated model. The present report summarizes recent progress on the Phase I effort during the period April 1, 1995 through June 30, 1995. This report presents additional revisions to the new cost models of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) technology initially reported in our fourth quarterly report. For convenience, the complete description of the revised FGD models are presented here.

  10. 1 | P a g e Implementing an Integrated Distributed Model in Finance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ollivier-Gooch, Carl

    1 | P a g e Implementing an Integrated Distributed Model in Finance There are significant changes taking place, effective today, across the University's Finance function. These changes reflect some key opportunities for our finance professionals through mentoring, talent development, career laddering, mobility

  11. Integration Schemes for Dissipative Particle Dynamics Simulations: From Softly Interacting Systems Towards Hybrid Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ilpo Vattulainen; Mikko Karttunen; Gerhard Besold; J. M. Polson

    2002-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

    We examine the performance of various commonly used integration schemes in dissipative particle dynamics simulations. We consider this issue using three different model systems, which characterize a variety of different conditions often studied in simulations. Specifically we clarify the performance of integration schemes in hybrid models, which combine microscopic and meso-scale descriptions of different particles using both soft and hard interactions. We find that in all three model systems many commonly used integrators may give rise to surprisingly pronounced artifacts in physical observables such as the radial distribution function, the compressibility, and the tracer diffusion coefficient. The artifacts are found to be strongest in systems, where interparticle interactions are soft and predominated by random and dissipative forces, while in systems governed by conservative interactions the artifacts are weaker. Our results suggest that the quality of any integration scheme employed is crucial in all cases where the role of random and dissipative forces is important, including hybrid models where the solvent is described in terms of soft potentials.

  12. Integration of an Aggregate Flow Model with a Traffic Flow Simulator

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Integration of an Aggregate Flow Model with a Traffic Flow Simulator Robert Hoffman , Dengfeng Sun restrictions to aircraft movement are applied by air traffic controllers and traffic managers in response to demand overages or capacity shortfalls in sectors of airspace. To estimate and assess the efficiency

  13. TEOS 04 Carbon Flux and C Pipe: Integrating sensor outputs to models Team Members

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    California at Los Angeles, University of

    , Staff · Thomas Unwin, Staff · Hai Vo, Undergrad * Primary Contact Overview Our goal is to integrate model [Katul et. al. 2003] to estimate carbon and water fluxes. System(s) Description and/or Experiments] where Cw is water capacity, h is water pressure head, t is time, z is depth, K(h) is hydraulic constant

  14. Accepted Manuscript Integrated models to study the impact of ELMs and disruptions on lithium in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Harilal, S. S.

    geometrical effects on divertor erosion dynamics. Lithium expansion in divertor and SOL areas may potentiallyAccepted Manuscript Integrated models to study the impact of ELMs and disruptions on lithium the impact of ELMs and disruptions on lithium in the NSTX divertor, Journal of Nuclear Materials (2010), doi

  15. Integrated Modeling and Design of Lightweight, Active Mirrors for Launch Survival and On-Orbit

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    -Orbit Performance Lucy E. Cohan and David W. Miller June 2010 SSL# 2-10 #12;#12;Integrated Modeling and Design June 2010 SSL# 2-10 This work is based on the unaltered text of the thesis by Lucy Cohan submitted

  16. A long-term investment planning model for mixed energy infrastructure integrated with renewable

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A long-term investment planning model for mixed energy infrastructure integrated with renewable energy Jinxu Ding and Arun Somani Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Iowa State University Ames, IA 50011 Email: {jxding,arun}@iastate.edu Abstract--The current energy infrastructure heavily

  17. Integrating Security and Systems Engineering: Towards the Modelling of Secure Information Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Integrating Security and Systems Engineering: Towards the Modelling of Secure Information Systems for information systems. Traditionally, security is considered after the definition of the system. However the health sector to military. As the use of Information Systems arises, the demand to secure those systems

  18. Jan 16 Conceptual models of ecological systems Why is Integration Needed in Ecology?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hansen, Andrew J.

    Jan 16 Conceptual models of ecological systems #12;Why is Integration Needed in Ecology? Great advances have been made by dividing ecology into subdisciplines. But too much focus on subdisciplines has also hindered ecology · too little study of the interface between disciplines · tended to narrow focus

  19. Designing a Collaborative Problem Solving Environment for Integrated Water Resource Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thurman, David A.; Cowell, Andrew J.; Taira, Randal Y.; Frodge, Jonathan

    2004-06-14T23:59:59.000Z

    We report on our approach for designing a collaborative problem solving environment for hydrologists, water quality planners and natural resource managers, all roles within a natural resource management agency and stakeholders in an integrated water resource management process. We describe our approach in context of the Integrated Water Resource Modeling System (IWRMS), under development by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the Department of Natural Resources and Parks in King County, Washington. This system will integrate a collection of water resource models (watersheds, rivers, lakes, estuaries) to provide the ability to address water, land use, and other natural resource management decisions and scenarios, with the goal of developing an integrated modeling capability to address future land use and resource management scenarios and provide scientific support to decision makers. Here, we discuss the five-step process used to ascertain the (potentially opposing) needs and interests of stakeholders and provide results and summaries from our experiences. The results of this process guide user interface design efforts to create a collaborative problems solving environment supporting multiple users with differing scientific backgrounds and modeling needs. We conclude with a discussion of participatory interface design methods used to encourage stakeholder involvement and acceptance of the system as well as the lessons learned to date.

  20. Integrated Dynamic Optimization and Control in Reservoir Engineering using Locally Identified Linear Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Van den Hof, Paul

    on dynamic real-time optimization (D- RTO) of waterflooding strategies in petroleum reservoirs haveIntegrated Dynamic Optimization and Control in Reservoir Engineering using Locally Identified, the used large-scale, nonlinear, physics-based reservoir models suffer from vast parametric uncertainty

  1. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  2. Pressure Normalization of Production Rates Improves Forecasting Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lacayo Ortiz, Juan Manuel

    2013-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

    reservoir conditions, psi 2/cp ?wf Pseudopressure at flowing conditions, psi 2/cp ? Characteristic time parameter for SEPD model, D ?g Gas viscosity, cp ?o Oil viscosity, cp Acronyms BDF Boundary-Dominated Flow DCA Decline Curve Analysis EUR..., as the advanced analytical and numerical models depend on copious inputs, there is a high probability that different combinations of those parameters could generate equivalent and acceptable history matches, but different production forecasts and EUR...

  3. Integration of Feedstock Assembly System and Cellulosic Ethanol Conversion Models to Analyze Bioenergy System Performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jared M. Abodeely; Douglas S. McCorkle; Kenneth M. Bryden; David J. Muth; Daniel Wendt; Kevin Kenney

    2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Research barriers continue to exist in all phases of the emerging cellulosic ethanol biorefining industry. These barriers include the identification and development of a sustainable and abundant biomass feedstock, the assembly of viable assembly systems formatting the feedstock and moving it from the field (e.g., the forest) to the biorefinery, and improving conversion technologies. Each of these phases of cellulosic ethanol production are fundamentally connected, but computational tools used to support and inform analysis within each phase remain largely disparate. This paper discusses the integration of a feedstock assembly system modeling toolkit and an Aspen Plus® conversion process model. Many important biomass feedstock characteristics, such as composition, moisture, particle size and distribution, ash content, etc. are impacted and most effectively managed within the assembly system, but generally come at an economic cost. This integration of the assembly system and the conversion process modeling tools will facilitate a seamless investigation of the assembly system conversion process interface. Through the integrated framework, the user can design the assembly system for a particular biorefinery by specifying location, feedstock, equipment, and unit operation specifications. The assembly system modeling toolkit then provides economic valuation, and detailed biomass feedstock composition and formatting information. This data is seamlessly and dynamically used to run the Aspen Plus® conversion process model. The model can then be used to investigate the design of systems for cellulosic ethanol production from field to final product.

  4. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  5. Paper accepted for presentation at 2003 IEEE Bologna PowerTech Conference, June 23-26, Bologna, Italy Wind Power Forecasting using Fuzzy Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    , Italy Wind Power Forecasting using Fuzzy Neural Networks Enhanced with On-line Prediction Risk) as input, to predict the power production of wind park8 48 hours ahead. The prediction system integrates of the numerical weather predictions. Index Term-Wind power, short-term forecasting, numerical weather predictions

  6. Estimating uncertainties in integrated reservoir studies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Guohong

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    To make sound investment decisions, decision makers need accurate estimates of the uncertainties present in forecasts of reservoir performance. In this work I propose a method, the integrated mismatch method, that incorporates the misfit...

  7. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System. Phase I report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, R.M.; Hadder, G.R.; Singh, S.P.N.; Whittle, C.

    1985-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Department of the Navy (DON) requires an improved capability to forecast mobility fuel availability and quality. The changing patterns in fuel availability and quality are important in planning the Navy's Mobility Fuels R and D Program. These changes come about primarily because of the decline in the quality of crude oil entering world markets as well as the shifts in refinery capabilities domestically and worldwide. The DON requested ORNL's assistance in assembling and testing a methodology for forecasting mobility fuel trends. ORNL reviewed and analyzed domestic and world oil reserve estimates, production and price trends, and recent refinery trends. Three publicly available models developed by the Department of Energy were selected as the basis of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System. The system was used to analyze the availability and quality of jet fuel (JP-5) that could be produced on the West Coast of the United States under an illustrative business-as-usual and a world oil disruption scenario in 1990. Various strategies were investigated for replacing the lost JP-5 production. This exercise, which was strictly a test case for the forecasting system, suggested that full recovery of lost fuel production could be achieved by relaxing the smoke point specifications or by increasing the refiners' gate price for the jet fuel. A more complete analysis of military mobility fuel trends is currently under way.

  8. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  9. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  10. Solid low-level waste forecasting guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Dirks, L.L.

    1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Guidance for forecasting solid low-level waste (LLW) on a site-wide basis is described in this document. Forecasting is defined as an approach for collecting information about future waste receipts. The forecasting approach discussed in this document is based solely on hanford`s experience within the last six years. Hanford`s forecasting technique is not a statistical forecast based upon past receipts. Due to waste generator mission changes, startup of new facilities, and waste generator uncertainties, statistical methods have proven to be inadequate for the site. It is recommended that an approach similar to Hanford`s annual forecasting strategy be implemented at each US Department of Energy (DOE) installation to ensure that forecast data are collected in a consistent manner across the DOE complex. Hanford`s forecasting strategy consists of a forecast cycle that can take 12 to 30 months to complete. The duration of the cycle depends on the number of LLW generators and staff experience; however, the duration has been reduced with each new cycle. Several uncertainties are associated with collecting data about future waste receipts. Volume, shipping schedule, and characterization data are often reported as estimates with some level of uncertainty. At Hanford, several methods have been implemented to capture the level of uncertainty. Collection of a maximum and minimum volume range has been implemented as well as questionnaires to assess the relative certainty in the requested data.

  11. Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

    1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

  12. Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sancetta, Alessio

    the single individual forecasts. Several studies have shown that combining forecasts can be a useful hedge against structural breaks, and forecast combinations are often more stable than single forecasts (e.g. Hendry and Clements, 2004, Stock and Watson, 2004... in expectations. Hence, we have the following. Corollary 4 Suppose maxt?T kl (Yt, hwt,Xti)kr ? A taking expectation on the left hand side, adding 2A ? T and setting ? = 0 in mT (?), i.e. TX t=1 E [lt (wt)? lt (ut...

  13. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Power Forecasting Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American...

  14. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  15. U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kamat, Vineet R.

    U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast Spring ­ Fall 2012 As of December 15, 2011 Prepared by AEC Preliminary & Advisory #12;U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 Overview · Campus by campus · Snapshot in time ­ Not all projects · Construction coordination efforts

  16. New modeling and control solutions for integrated microgrid system with respect to thermodynamics properties of generation and demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, Fang-Yu, S.M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis investigates microgrid control stability with respect to thermodynamics behaviors of generation and demand. First, a new integrated microgrid model is introduced. This model consists of a combined cycle power ...

  17. Paper presented at EWEC 2008, Brussels, Belgium (31 March-03 April) Uncertainty Estimation of Wind Power Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    -Antipolis, France Abstract--Short-term wind power forecasting tools providing "single-valued" (spot) predictions associated to the future wind power produc- tion for performing more efficiently functions such as reserves and modelling architec- tures for probabilistic wind power forecasting. Then, a comparison is carried out

  18. An Integrated Modeling and Data Management Strategy for Cellulosic Biomass Production Decisions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    David J. Muth Jr.; K. Mark Bryden; Joshua B. Koch

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Emerging cellulosic bioenergy markets can provide land managers with additional options for crop production decisions. Integrating dedicated bioenergy crops such as perennial grasses and short rotation woody species within the agricultural landscape can have positive impacts on several environmental processes including increased soil organic matter in degraded soils, reduced sediment loading in watersheds, lower green house gas (GHG) fluxes, and reduced nutrient loading in watersheds. Implementing this type of diverse bioenergy production system in a way that maximizes potential environmental benefits requires a dynamic integrated modeling and data management strategy. This paper presents a strategy for designing diverse bioenergy cropping systems within the existing row crop production landscape in the midwestern United States. The integrated model developed quantifies a wide range environmental processes including soil erosion from wind and water, soil organic matter changes, and soil GHG fluxes within a geospatial data management framework. This framework assembles and formats information from multiple spatial and temporal scales. The data assembled includes yield and productivity data from harvesting equipment at the 1m scale, surface topography data from LiDAR mapping at the less than 1m scale, soil data from US soil survey databases at the 10m to 100m scale, and climate data at the county scale. These models and data tools are assembled into an integrated computational environment that is used to determine sustainable removal rates for agricultural residues for bioenergy production at the sub-field scale under a wide range of land management practices. Using this integrated model, innovative management practices including cover cropping are then introduced and evaluated for their impact on bioenergy production and important environmental processes. The impacts of introducing dedicated energy crops onto high-risk landscape positions currently being manage in row crop production are also investigated.

  19. Models for the Configuration and Integrity of Partially Oxidized Fuel Rod Cladding at High Temperatures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Siefken, L.J.

    1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Models were designed to resolve deficiencies in the SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3.2 calculations of the configuration and integrity of hot, partially oxidized cladding. These models are expected to improve the calculations of several important aspects of fuel rod behavior. First, an improved mapping was established from a compilation of PIE results from severe fuel damage tests of the configuration of melted metallic cladding that is retained by an oxide layer. The improved mapping accounts for the relocation of melted cladding in the circumferential direction. Then, rules based on PIE results were established for calculating the effect of cladding that has relocated from above on the oxidation and integrity of the lower intact cladding upon which it solidifies. Next, three different methods were identified for calculating the extent of dissolution of the oxidic part of the cladding due to its contact with the metallic part. The extent of dissolution effects the stress and thus the integrity of the oxidic part of the cladding. Then, an empirical equation was presented for calculating the stress in the oxidic part of the cladding and evaluating its integrity based on this calculated stress. This empirical equation replaces the current criterion for loss of integrity which is based on temperature and extent of oxidation. Finally, a new rule based on theoretical and experimental results was established for identifying the regions of a fuel rod with oxidation of both the inside and outside surfaces of the cladding. The implementation of these models is expected to eliminate the tendency of the SCDAP/RELAP5 code to overpredict the extent of oxidation of the upper part of fuel rods and to underpredict the extent of oxidation of the lower part of fuel rods and the part with a high concentration of relocated material. This report is a revision and reissue of the report entitled, Improvements in Modeling of Cladding Oxidation and Meltdown.

  20. Research priorities in land use and land-cover change for the Earth system and integrated assessment modelling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hibbard, Kathy; Janetos, Anthony; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Pongtatz, Julia; Rose, Steven K.; Betts, Richard; Herold, Martin; Feddema, Johannes J.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    ). Copyright ? 2010 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright. KEY WORDS land use; land cover; Earth system models; integrated assessment models; research priorities Received 12 January 2009; Revised 9 March 2010; Accepted 14 March 2010 1. Introduction 1... biogeophysical, socio- economic and human decision-making perspectives. The Earth System Modeling (ESM) and the Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) communities play an impor- tant role in understanding and quantifying Earth system analysis and, specifically...

  1. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  2. Development of the Integrated Biomass Supply Analysis and Logistics Model (IBSAL)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine [ORNL; Webb, Erin [ORNL; Turhollow Jr, Anthony F [ORNL

    2008-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Integrated Biomass Supply & Logistics (IBSAL) model is a dynamic (time dependent) model of operations that involve collection, harvest, storage, preprocessing, and transportation of feedstock for use at a biorefinery. The model uses mathematical equations to represent individual unit operations. These unit operations can be assembled by the user to represent the working rate of equipment and queues to represent storage at facilities. The model calculates itemized costs, energy input, and carbon emissions. It estimates resource requirements and operational characteristics of the entire supply infrastructure. Weather plays an important role in biomass management and thus in IBSAL, dictating the moisture content of biomass and whether or not it can be harvested on a given day. The model calculates net biomass yield based on a soil conservation allowance (for crop residue) and dry matter losses during harvest and storage. This publication outlines the development of the model and provides examples of corn stover harvest and logistics.

  3. Integrating digital human modeling into virtual environment for ergonomic oriented design

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ma, Liang; Bennis, Fouad; Hu, Bo; Zhang, Wei

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Virtual human simulation integrated into virtual reality applications is mainly used for virtual representation of the user in virtual environment or for interactions between the user and the virtual avatar for cognitive tasks. In this paper, in order to prevent musculoskeletal disorders, the integration of virtual human simulation and VR application is presented to facilitate physical ergonomic evaluation, especially for physical fatigue evaluation of a given population. Immersive working environments are created to avoid expensive physical mock-up in conventional evaluation methods. Peripheral motion capture systems are used to capture natural movements and then to simulate the physical operations in virtual human simulation. Physical aspects of human's movement are then analyzed to determine the effort level of each key joint using inverse kinematics. The physical fatigue level of each joint is further analyzed by integrating a fatigue and recovery model on the basis of physical task parameters. All the pr...

  4. Integrating Building Information Modeling with Object-Oriented Physical Modeling for Building Thermal Simulation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jeong, Woon Seong

    2014-09-05T23:59:59.000Z

    the framework, and (2) the model manually created using Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s Modelica Buildings library. The results show that the framework: (1) enables BIM models to be translated into ModelicaBEM models, (2) enables system interface...

  5. A New Method for History Matching and Forecasting Shale Gas/Oil Reservoir Production Performance with Dual and Triple Porosity Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Samandarli, Orkhan

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    Different methods have been proposed for history matching production of shale gas/oil wells which are drilled horizontally and usually hydraulically fractured with multiple stages. These methods are simulation, analytical models, and empirical...

  6. Integration of Advanced Probabilistic Analysis Techniques with Multi-Physics Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cetiner, Mustafa Sacit; none,; Flanagan, George F. [ORNL] [ORNL; Poore III, Willis P. [ORNL] [ORNL; Muhlheim, Michael David [ORNL] [ORNL

    2014-07-30T23:59:59.000Z

    An integrated simulation platform that couples probabilistic analysis-based tools with model-based simulation tools can provide valuable insights for reactive and proactive responses to plant operating conditions. The objective of this work is to demonstrate the benefits of a partial implementation of the Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Detailed Framework Specification through the coupling of advanced PRA capabilities and accurate multi-physics plant models. Coupling a probabilistic model with a multi-physics model will aid in design, operations, and safety by providing a more accurate understanding of plant behavior. This represents the first attempt at actually integrating these two types of analyses for a control system used for operations, on a faster than real-time basis. This report documents the development of the basic communication capability to exchange data with the probabilistic model using Reliability Workbench (RWB) and the multi-physics model using Dymola. The communication pathways from injecting a fault (i.e., failing a component) to the probabilistic and multi-physics models were successfully completed. This first version was tested with prototypic models represented in both RWB and Modelica. First, a simple event tree/fault tree (ET/FT) model was created to develop the software code to implement the communication capabilities between the dynamic-link library (dll) and RWB. A program, written in C#, successfully communicates faults to the probabilistic model through the dll. A systems model of the Advanced Liquid-Metal Reactor–Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module (ALMR-PRISM) design developed under another DOE project was upgraded using Dymola to include proper interfaces to allow data exchange with the control application (ConApp). A program, written in C+, successfully communicates faults to the multi-physics model. The results of the example simulation were successfully plotted.

  7. Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (NEAMS Waste IPSC).

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schultz, Peter Andrew

    2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The objective of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (NEAMS Waste IPSC) is to provide an integrated suite of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) capabilities to quantitatively assess the long-term performance of waste forms in the engineered and geologic environments of a radioactive-waste storage facility or disposal repository. Achieving the objective of modeling the performance of a disposal scenario requires describing processes involved in waste form degradation and radionuclide release at the subcontinuum scale, beginning with mechanistic descriptions of chemical reactions and chemical kinetics at the atomic scale, and upscaling into effective, validated constitutive models for input to high-fidelity continuum scale codes for coupled multiphysics simulations of release and transport. Verification and validation (V&V) is required throughout the system to establish evidence-based metrics for the level of confidence in M&S codes and capabilities, including at the subcontiunuum scale and the constitutive models they inform or generate. This Report outlines the nature of the V&V challenge at the subcontinuum scale, an approach to incorporate V&V concepts into subcontinuum scale modeling and simulation (M&S), and a plan to incrementally incorporate effective V&V into subcontinuum scale M&S destined for use in the NEAMS Waste IPSC work flow to meet requirements of quantitative confidence in the constitutive models informed by subcontinuum scale phenomena.

  8. 1992 five year battery forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Amistadi, D.

    1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Five-year trends for automotive and industrial batteries are projected. Topic covered include: SLI shipments; lead consumption; automotive batteries (5-year annual growth rates); industrial batteries (standby power and motive power); estimated average battery life by area/country for 1989; US motor vehicle registrations; replacement battery shipments; potential lead consumption in electric vehicles; BCI recycling rates for lead-acid batteries; US average car/light truck battery life; channels of distribution; replacement battery inventory end July; 2nd US battery shipment forecast.

  9. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directedAnnual SiteofEvaluating A PotentialJumpGermanFife Energy Park atFisiaFlorida:Forecast Energy Jump to:

  10. Modeling Framework and Validation of a Smart Grid and Demand Response System for Wind Power Integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Broeer, Torsten; Fuller, Jason C.; Tuffner, Francis K.; Chassin, David P.; Djilali, Ned

    2014-01-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Electricity generation from wind power and other renewable energy sources is increasing, and their variability introduces new challenges to the power system. The emergence of smart grid technologies in recent years has seen a paradigm shift in redefining the electrical system of the future, in which controlled response of the demand side is used to balance fluctuations and intermittencies from the generation side. This paper presents a modeling framework for an integrated electricity system where loads become an additional resource. The agent-based model represents a smart grid power system integrating generators, transmission, distribution, loads and market. The model incorporates generator and load controllers, allowing suppliers and demanders to bid into a Real-Time Pricing (RTP) electricity market. The modeling framework is applied to represent a physical demonstration project conducted on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, USA, and validation simulations are performed using actual dynamic data. Wind power is then introduced into the power generation mix illustrating the potential of demand response to mitigate the impact of wind power variability, primarily through thermostatically controlled loads. The results also indicate that effective implementation of Demand Response (DR) to assist integration of variable renewable energy resources requires a diversity of loads to ensure functionality of the overall system.

  11. Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

    2008-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

    For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

  12. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  13. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  14. Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo Oldenburg University have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius, 1981), when daily solar radiation forecasts

  15. Alternative methods for forecasting GDP Dominique Gugan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    analysis. Better forecast performance for macroeconomic variables will lead to Paris School of Economics the speed of computers that can develop search algorithms from appropriate selection criteria, Devroye. 1 Introduction Forecasting macroeconomic variables such as GDP and inflation play an important role

  16. A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vertes, Akos

    APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS Tara M. Sinclair , H.O. Stekler, and Warren Carnow Department of Economics The George Washington University Monroe Hall #340 2115 G Street NW Washington, DC 20052 JEL Codes, Mahalanobis Distance Abstract This paper presents a new approach to evaluating multiple economic forecasts

  17. 2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing and Economics at California State University, Fullerton, the largest accredited business school in California

  18. Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischer, Luke D.

    2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    /effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a...

  19. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency SEPTEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SDV1REV CALIFORNIA The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand and Methods

  20. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  1. Subtask 2.4 - Integration and Synthesis in Climate Change Predictive Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jaroslav Solc

    2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) completed a brief evaluation of the existing status of predictive modeling to assess options for integration of our previous paleohydrologic reconstructions and their synthesis with current global climate scenarios. Results of our research indicate that short-term data series available from modern instrumental records are not sufficient to reconstruct past hydrologic events or predict future ones. On the contrary, reconstruction of paleoclimate phenomena provided credible information on past climate cycles and confirmed their integration in the context of regional climate history is possible. Similarly to ice cores and other paleo proxies, acquired data represent an objective, credible tool for model calibration and validation of currently observed trends. It remains a subject of future research whether further refinement of our results and synthesis with regional and global climate observations could contribute to improvement and credibility of climate predictions on a regional and global scale.

  2. Comparison of Various Deterministic Forecasting Techniques in Shale Gas Reservoirs with Emphasis on the Duong Method 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Joshi, Krunal Jaykant

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    variation of the Duong model proves to be a robust model for most of the well cases and flow regimes. The modified Duong has been shown to work best compared to other deterministic models in most cases. For grouped datasets the SPED & Duong models forecast...

  3. Integrating Empirical Measures of Energy Efficiency into an Energy Modeling Framework

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyd, G.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Integrating Empirical Measures of Energy Efficiency Into An Energy Modeling Framework Gale Boyd, Argonne National Laboratory Tools such as Data Envelopment Analysis and Stochastic Frontier Regressions provide a basis for empirical measures... of efficiency. The definition of efficiency these tools encompass can be as broadly defined as total factor productivity, or narrowly defined in terms of single inputs like energy. Given the ability to generate empirical measures of energy efficiency...

  4. Long-time integration methods for mesoscopic models of pattern-forming systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abukhdeir, Nasser Mohieddin [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Delaware, Newark, DE (United States); Vlachos, Dionisios G., E-mail: vlachos@udel.ed [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Delaware, Newark, DE (United States); Katsoulakis, Markos [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (United States); Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Crete, Heraklion (Greece); Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics, Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas, Heraklion (Greece); Plexousakis, Michael [Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Crete, Heraklion (Greece); Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics, Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas, Heraklion (Greece)

    2011-06-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Spectral methods for simulation of a mesoscopic diffusion model of surface pattern formation are evaluated for long simulation times. Backwards-differencing time-integration, coupled with an underlying Newton-Krylov nonlinear solver (SUNDIALS-CVODE), is found to substantially accelerate simulations, without the typical requirement of preconditioning. Quasi-equilibrium simulations of patterned phases predicted by the model are shown to agree well with linear stability analysis. Simulation results of the effect of repulsive particle-particle interactions on pattern relaxation time and short/long-range order are discussed.

  5. A Hydro-Economic Approach to Representing Water Resources Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kirshen, Paul H.; Strzepek, Kenneth, M.

    2004-01-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Grant Number DE-FG02-98ER62665 Office of Energy Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Abstract Many Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) divide the world into a small number of highly aggregated regions. Non-OECD countries are aggregated geographically into continental and multiple-continental regions or economically by development level. Current research suggests that these large scale aggregations cannot accurately represent potential water resources-related climate change impacts. In addition, IAMs do not explicitly model the flow regulation impacts of reservoir and ground water systems, the economics of water supply, or the demand for water in economic activities. Using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) as a case study, this research implemented a set of methodologies to provide accurate representation of water resource climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models. There were also detailed examinations of key issues related to aggregated modeling including: modeling water consumption versus water withdrawals; ground and surface water interactions; development of reservoir cost curves; modeling of surface areas of aggregated reservoirs for estimating evaporation losses; and evaluating the importance of spatial scale in river basin modeling. The major findings include: - Continental or national or even large scale river basin aggregation of water supplies and demands do not accurately capture the impacts of climate change in the water and agricultural sector in IAMs. - Fortunately, there now exist gridden approaches (0.5 X 0.5 degrees) to model streamflows in a global analysis. The gridded approach to hydrologic modeling allows flexibility in aligning basin boundaries with national boundaries. This combined with GIS tools, high speed computers, and the growing availability of socio-economic gridded data bases allows assignment of demands to river basins to create hydro-economic zones that respect as much as possible both political and hydrologic integrity in different models. - To minimize pre-processing of data and add increased flexibility to modeling water resources and uses, it is recommended that water withdrawal demands be modeled, not consumptive requirements even though this makes the IAM more complex. - IAMs must consider changes in water availability for irrigation under climate change; ignoring them is more inaccurate than ignoring yield changes in crops under climate change. - Determining water availability and cost in river basins must include modeling streamflows, reservoirs and their operations, and ground water and its interaction with surface water. - Scale issues are important. The results from condensing demands and supplies in a large complex river basin to one node can be misleading for all uses under low flow conditions and instream flow uses under all conditions. Monthly is generally the most accurate scale for modeling river flows and demands. Challenges remain in integrating hydrologic units with political boundaries but the gridded approach to hydrologic modeling allows flexibility in aligning basin boundaries with political boundaries. - Using minimal reservoir cost data, it is possible to use basin topography to estimate reservoir storage costs. - Reservoir evaporation must be considered when assessing the usable water in a watershed. Several methods are available to estimate the relationship between aggregated storage surface area and storage volume. - For existing or future IAMs that can not use the appropriate aggregation for water, a water preprocessor may be required due the finer scale of hydrologic impacts.

  6. Exact solvability, non-integrability, and genuine multipartite entanglement dynamics of the Dicke model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shu He; Liwei Duan; Qing-Hu Chen

    2015-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, the finite size Dicke model of arbitrary number of qubits is solved analytically in an unified way within extended coherent states. For the $N=2k$ or $2k-1$ Dicke models ($k$ is an integer), the $G$-function, which is only an energy dependent $k \\times k$ determinant, is derived in a transparent manner. The regular spectrum is completely and uniquely given by stable zeros of the $G$-function. The closed-form exceptional eigenvalues are also derived. The level distribution controlled by the pole structure of the $G$-functions suggests non-integrability for $N>1$ model at any finite coupling in the sense of recent criterion in literature. A preliminary application to the exact dynamics of genuine multipartite entanglement in the finite $N$ Dicke model is presented using the obtained exact solutions.

  7. Upstream Measurements of Wind Profiles with Doppler Lidar for Improved Wind Energy Integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rodney Frehlich

    2012-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

    New upstream measurements of wind profiles over the altitude range of wind turbines will be produced using a scanning Doppler lidar. These long range high quality measurements will provide improved wind power forecasts for wind energy integration into the power grid. The main goal of the project is to develop the optimal Doppler lidar operating parameters and data processing algorithms for improved wind energy integration by enhancing the wind power forecasts in the 30 to 60 minute time frame, especially for the large wind power ramps. Currently, there is very little upstream data at large wind farms, especially accurate wind profiles over the full height of the turbine blades. The potential of scanning Doppler lidar will be determined by rigorous computer modeling and evaluation of actual Doppler lidar data from the WindTracer system produced by Lockheed Martin Coherent Technologies, Inc. of Louisville, Colorado. Various data products will be investigated for input into numerical weather prediction models and statistically based nowcasting algorithms. Successful implementation of the proposed research will provide the required information for a full cost benefit analysis of the improved forecasts of wind power for energy integration as well as the added benefit of high quality wind and turbulence information for optimal control of the wind turbines at large wind farms.

  8. Integrated system modeling analysis of a cryogenic multi-cell deflecting-mode cavity resonator

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shin, Young-Min [Department of Physics, Northern Illinois University, Dekalb, Illinois 60115 (United States) [Department of Physics, Northern Illinois University, Dekalb, Illinois 60115 (United States); Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Batavia, Illinois 60510 (United States); Church, Michael [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Batavia, Illinois 60510 (United States)] [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Batavia, Illinois 60510 (United States)

    2013-09-15T23:59:59.000Z

    A deflecting mode cavity is the integral element for six-dimensional phase-space beam control in bunch compressors and emittance transformers at high energy beam test facilities. RF performance of a high-Q device is, however, highly sensitive to operational conditions, in particular in a cryo-cooling environment. Using analytic calculations and RF simulations, we examined cavity parameters and deflecting characteristics of TM{sub 110,?} mode of a 5 cell resonator in a liquid nitrogen cryostat, which has long been used at the Fermilab A0 Photoinjector (A0PI). The sensitivity analysis indicated that the cavity could lose 30%–40% of deflecting force due to defective input power coupling accompanying non-uniform field distribution across the cells with 40 ? 50 MeV electron beam and 70–80 kW klystron power. Vacuum-cryomodules of the 5 cell cavity are planned to be installed at the Fermilab Advanced Superconducting Test Accelerator facility. Comprehensive modeling analysis integrated with multi-physics simulation tools showed that RF loading of 1 ms can cause a ?5 K maximum temperature increase, corresponding to a ?4.3 ?m/ms deformation and a 1.32 MHz/K maximum frequency shift. The integrated system modeling analysis will improve design process of a high-Q cavity with more accurate prediction of cryogenic RF performance under a high power pulse operation.

  9. Integrated Process Model Development and Systems Analyses for the LIFE Power Plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meier, W R; Anklam, T; Abbott, R; Erlandson, A; Halsey, W; Miles, R; Simon, A J

    2009-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

    We have developed an integrated process model (IPM) for a Laser Inertial Fusion-Fission Energy (LIFE) power plant. The model includes cost and performance algorithms for the major subsystems of the plant, including the laser, fusion target fabrication and injection, fusion-fission chamber (including the tritium and fission fuel blankets), heat transfer and power conversion systems, and other balance of plant systems. The model has been developed in Visual Basic with an Excel spreadsheet user interface in order to allow experts in various aspects of the design to easily integrate their individual modules and provide a convenient, widely accessible platform for conducting the system studies. Subsystem modules vary in level of complexity; some are based on top-down scaling from fission power plant costs (for example, electric plant equipment), while others are bottom-up models based on conceptual designs being developed by LLNL (for example, the fusion-fission chamber and laser systems). The IPM is being used to evaluate design trade-offs, do design optimization, and conduct sensitivity analyses to identify high-leverage areas for R&D. We describe key aspects of the IPM and report on the results of our systems analyses. Designs are compared and evaluated as a function of key design variables such as fusion target yield and pulse repetition rate.

  10. A Case Study on the Model-Based Design and Integration of Automotive Cyber-Physical Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koutsoukos, Xenofon D.

    A Case Study on the Model-Based Design and Integration of Automotive Cyber-Physical Systems Di--Cyber-physical systems (CPS), such as automotive systems, are very difficult to design due to the tight interactions of an integrated automotive control system. The system is composed of two independently designed controllers

  11. iEMSs 2008:International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software Integrating Sciences and Information Technology for Environmental Assessment and Decision Making

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoffman, Forrest M.

    to be based on results from integrated Earth System Models (ESMs), C-LAMP is helping to establish the metadata

  12. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and water pumping sectors. Mark Ciminelli forecasted energy for transportation, communication and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast

  13. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  14. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  15. Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Islam, M. Saif

    Page 1 Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey

  16. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

  17. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  18. LANL JOWOG 31 2012 Forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vidlak, Anton J. II [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    Joint Working Group (JOWOG) 31, Nuclear Weapons Engineering, has a particularly broad scope of activities within its charter which emphasizes systems engineering. JOWOG 31 brings together experts from AWE and the national laboratories to address engineering issues associated with warhead design and certification. Some of the key areas of interaction, as addressed by the HOCWOGs are: (1) Engineering Analysis, (2) Hydrodynamic Testing, (3) Environmental Testing, and (4) Model Based Integrated Toolkit (MBIT). Gas Transfer Systems and Condition Monitoring interaction has been moved back to JOWOG 31. The regularly scheduled JOWOG 31 activities are the General Sessions, Executive Sessions, Focused Exchanges and HOCWOGs. General Sessions are scheduled every 12-18 months and are supported by the four design laboratories (AWE, LANL, LLNL, and SNL). Beneficial in educating the next generation of weapons engineers and establishing contacts between AWE and the US laboratory personnel. General Sessions are based on a blend of presentations and workshops centered on various themed subjects directly related to Stockpile Stewardship. HOCWOG meetings are more narrowly focused than the General Sessions. They feature presentations by experts in the field with a greater emphasis on round table discussions. Typically about 20 people attend. Focused exchanges are generally the result of interactions within JOWOG general sessions or HOCWOG meetings. They generally span a very specific topic of current interest within the US and UK.

  19. Modeling of integrated environmental control systems for coal-fired power plants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rubin, E.S.

    1988-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This is the third quarterly report of DOE Contract No. DE-AC22- 87PC79864, entitled Modeling of Integrated Environmental Control Systems for Coal-Fired Power Plants.'' This report summarizes accomplishments during the period April 1, 1988 to June 30, 1988. Our efforts during the last quarter focused on, (1) completion of a sulfuric acid plant model (used in conjunction with by-product recovery processes for SO{sub 2}/NO{sub x} removal) and, (2) an update the NOXSO process model. Other accomplishments involved revision and expansion of the enthalpy data algorithms used for process energy balances. The sections below present the details of these developments. References are included at the end of each section.

  20. Frost Growth CFD Model of an Integrated Active Desiccant Rooftop Unit

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Geoghegan, Patrick J [ORNL; Petrov, Andrei Y [ORNL; Vineyard, Edward Allan [ORNL; Zaltash, Abdolreza [ORNL; Linkous, Randall Lee [ORNL

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A frost growth model is incorporated into a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation of a heat pump by means of a user-defined function in FLUENT, a commercial CFD code. The transient model is applied to the outdoor section of an Integrated Active Desiccant Rooftop (IADR) unit in heating mode. IADR is a hybrid vapor compression and active desiccant unit capable of handling 100% outdoor air (dedicated outdoor air system) or as a total conditioning system, handling both outdoor air and space cooling or heating loads. The predicted increase in flow resistance and loss in heat transfer capacity due to frost build-up are compared to experimental pressure drop readings and thermal imaging. The purpose of this work is to develop a CFD model that is capable of predicting frost growth, an invaluable tool in evaluating the effectiveness of defrost-on-demand cycles.

  1. An integrated model for the post-solidification shape and grain morphology of fusion welds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kidess, Anton; Duggan, Gregory; Browne, David J; Kenjereš, Saša; Richardson, Ian; Kleijn, Chris R

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Through an integrated macroscale/mesoscale computational model, we investigate the developing shape and grain morphology during the melting and solidification of a weld. In addition to macroscale surface tension driven fluid flow and heat transfer, we predict the solidification progression using a mesoscale model accounting for realistic solidification kinetics, rather than quasi-equilibrium thermodynamics. The tight coupling between the macroscale and the mesoscale distinguishes our results from previously published studies. The inclusion of Marangoni driven fluid flow and heat transfer, both during heating and cooling, was found to be crucial for accurately predicting both weld pool shape and grain morphology. However, if only the shape of the weld pool is of interest, a thermodynamic quasi-equilibrium solidification model, neglecting solidification kinetics, was found to suffice when including fluid flow and heat transfer. We demonstrate that the addition of a sufficient concentration of approximately 1 $\\...

  2. Integrated canopy, building energy and radiosity model for 3D urban design

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burdet, Etienne; Morand, Denis; Diab, Youssef

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We present an integrated, three dimensional, model of urban canopy, building energy and radiosity, for early stage urban designs and test it on four urban morphologies. All sub-models share a common descriptions of the urban morphology, similar to 3D urban design master plans and have simple parameters. The canopy model is a multilayer model, with a new discrete layer approach that does not rely on simplified geometry such as canyon or regular arrays. The building energy model is a simplified RC equivalent model, with no hypotheses on internal zoning or wall composition. We use the CitySim software for the radiosity model. We study the effects of convexity, the number of buildings and building height, at constant density and thermal characteristics. Our results suggest that careful three dimensional morphology design can reduce heat demand by a factor of 2, especially by improving insolation of lower levels. The most energy efficient morphology in our simulations has both the highest surface/volume ratio and ...

  3. Control Model Integrated Management and Assessment System. These materials are from April 2000 and pertain to Savanna

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boone, Randall B.

    Control Model #12;134 Integrated Management and Assessment System. These materials are from AprilView for contacts. Total biomass, by plant groups As you have already likely noticed, the control model includes and dead biomass, for a typical April to July NCA-Savanna Control Model #12;135 Root biomass for herbaceous

  4. An Integrated Model for Assessment of Sustainable Agricultural Residue Removal Limits for Bioenergy Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    D. Muth; K. M. Bryden

    2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Agricultural residues have been identified as a significant potential resource for bioenergy production, but serious questions remain about the sustainability of harvesting residues. Agricultural residues play an important role in limiting soil erosion from wind and water and in maintaining soil organic carbon. Because of this, multiple factors must be considered when assessing sustainable residue harvest limits. Validated and accepted modeling tools for assessing these impacts include the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation Version 2 (RUSLE2), the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS), and the Soil Conditioning Index. Currently, these models do not work together as a single integrated model. Rather, use of these models requires manual interaction and data transfer. As a result, it is currently not feasible to use these computational tools to perform detailed sustainable agricultural residue availability assessments across large spatial domains or to consider a broad range of land management practices. This paper presents an integrated modeling strategy that couples existing datasets with the RUSLE2 water erosion, WEPS wind erosion, and Soil Conditioning Index soil carbon modeling tools to create a single integrated residue removal modeling system. This enables the exploration of the detailed sustainable residue harvest scenarios needed to establish sustainable residue availability. Using this computational tool, an assessment study of residue availability for the state of Iowa was performed. This study included all soil types in the state of Iowa, four representative crop rotation schemes, variable crop yields, three tillage management methods, and five residue removal methods. The key conclusions of this study are that under current management practices and crop yields nearly 26.5 million Mg of agricultural residue are sustainably accessible in the state of Iowa, and that through the adoption of no till practices residue removal could sustainably approach 40 million Mg. However, when considering the economics and logistics of residue harvest, yields below 2.25 Mg ha-1 are generally considered to not be viable for a commercial bioenergy system. Applying this constraint, the total agricultural residue resource available in Iowa under current management practices is 19 million Mg. Previously published results have shown residue availability from 22 million Mg to over 50 million Mg in Iowa.

  5. Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study Solar Dataset (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hummon, M.

    2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory produced solar power production data for the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS) including "real time" 5-minute interval data, "four hour ahead forecast" 60-minute interval data, and "day-ahead forecast" 60-minute interval data for the year 2006. This presentation provides a brief overview of the three solar power datasets.

  6. A Framework of Incorporating Spatio-temporal Forecast in Look-ahead Grid Dispatch with Photovoltaic Generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Chen

    2013-05-02T23:59:59.000Z

    , and is shown to have improved performance compared with conventional persistent model. The tradeoff between communication cost and improved forecast quality is studied using realistic data sets collected from California and Colorado. n IEEE 14 bus system test...

  7. Modeling the Integrated Performance of Dispersion and Monolithic U-Mo Based Fuels

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Daniel M. Wachs; Douglas E. Burkes; Steven L. Hayes; Karen Moore; Greg Miller; Gerard Hofman; Yeon Soo Kim

    2006-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The evaluation and prediction of integrated fuel performance is a critical component of the Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors (RERTR) program. The PLATE code is the primary tool being developed and used to perform these functions. The code is being modified to incorporate the most recent fuel/matrix interaction correlations as they become available for both aluminum and aluminum/silicon matrices. The code is also being adapted to treat cylindrical and square pin geometries to enhance the validation database by including the results gathered from various international partners. Additional modeling work has been initiated to evaluate the thermal and mechanical performance requirements unique to monolithic fuels during irradiation.

  8. seca-model-simul-team-integration-mtg | netl.doe.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What'sis Taking Over OurThe Iron4 Self-Scrubbing:,, ,Development ofrluyendiNeedModeling and Simulation

  9. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    supervised data preparation. Steven Mac and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Cynthia Rogers generation, conservation, energy efficiency, climate zone, investorowned, public, utilities, additional

  10. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  11. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  12. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  13. Energy policy modeling: United States and Canadian experiences. Volume II. Integrative energy policy models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ziemba, W.T.; Schwartz, S.L. (eds.)

    1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Canadian Energy Policy Modeling Conference, held in North Vancouver, May 18-20, 1978, was organized to assess the state of the art in energy modeling in North America. A major aim of the conference was to determine the extent to which energy modeling had and could make a contribution to the energy-policy decision-making process. Two volumes contain revised and updated versions of the major papers presented at the conference plus edited transcripts of the panel discussions and several additional papers aimed at particular topics deemed worthy of further study. For this volume, Vol. II, a separate abstract was prepared for each of 17 papers, 2 panel discussions, and three session-introduction commentaries for Energy Abstracts for Policy Analysis (EAPA); 7 abstracts will appear in Energy Research Abstracts (ERA).

  14. CIM-EARTH: Community integrated model of economic and resource trajectories for humankind.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elliott, J.; Foster, I.; Judd, K.; Moyer, E.; Munson, T.; Univ. of Chicago; Hoover Inst.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Climate change is a global problem with local climatic and economic impacts. Mitigation policies can be applied on large geographic scales, such as a carbon cap-and-trade program for the entire U.S., on medium geographic scales, such as the NOx program for the northeastern U.S., or on smaller scales, such as statewide renewable portfolio standards and local gasoline taxes. To enable study of the environmental benefits, transition costs, capitalization effects, and other consequences of mitigation policies, we are developing dynamic general equilibrium models capable of incorporating important climate impacts. This report describes the economic framework we have developed and the current Community Integrated Model of Economic and Resource Trajectories for Humankind (CIM-EARTH) instance.

  15. Integrated Dynamic Gloabal Modeling of Land Use, Energy and Economic Growth

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Atul Jain, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL

    2009-10-14T23:59:59.000Z

    The overall objective of this collaborative project is to integrate an existing general equilibrium energy-economic growth model with a biogeochemical cycles and biophysical models in order to more fully explore the potential contribution of land use-related activities to future emissions scenarios. Land cover and land use change activities, including deforestation, afforestation, and agriculture management, are important source of not only CO2, but also non-CO2 GHGs. Therefore, contribution of land-use emissions to total emissions of GHGs is important, and consequently their future trends are relevant to the estimation of climate change and its mitigation. This final report covers the full project period of the award, beginning May 2006, which includes a sub-contract to Brown University later transferred to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) when Co-PI Brian O'Neill changed institutional affiliations.

  16. From classical to quantum and back: Hamiltonian coupling of classical and Path Integral models of atoms

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kreis, Karsten; Donadio, Davide; Kremer, Kurt; Potestio, Raffaello

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In computer simulations, quantum delocalization of atomic nuclei can be modeled making use of the Path Integral (PI) formulation of quantum statistical mechanics. This approach, however, comes with a large computational cost. By restricting the PI modeling to a small region of space, this cost can be significantly reduced. In the present work we derive a Hamiltonian formulation for a bottom-up, theoretically solid simulation protocol that allows molecules to change their resolution from quantum-mechanical to classical and vice versa on the fly, while freely diffusing across the system. This approach renders possible simulations of quantum systems at constant chemical potential. The validity of the proposed scheme is demonstrated by means of simulations of low temperature parahydrogen. Potential future applications include simulations of biomolecules, membranes, and interfaces.

  17. Forecast calls for better models | EMSL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Examining the core components of Arctic clouds to clear up their influence on climate Scanning transmission X-ray microscopy images of individual residues from Alaskan clouds....

  18. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  19. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast W ith natural gas prices significantlyof AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  20. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures