National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for insight macroeconomic forecast

  1. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  2. Methodology for the Assessment of the Macroeconomic Impacts of Stricter CAFE Standards - Addendum

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2002-01-01

    This assessment of the economic impacts of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) standards marks the first time the Energy Information Administration has used the new direct linkage of the DRI-WEFA Macroeconomic Model to the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) in a policy setting. This methodology assures an internally consistent solution between the energy market concepts forecast by NEMS and the aggregate economy as forecast by the DRI-WEFA Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy.

  3. Macroeconomic Activity Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook for 2014 (AEO2014). The report catalogues and describes the module assumptions, computations, methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and mainframe source code

  4. Alternative Measures of Welfare in Macroeconomic Models

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Alternative Measures of Welfare in Macroeconomic Models Vipin Arora December 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy Information Administration. WORKING PAPER SERIES December 2013 Vipin Arora | U.S. Energy Information Administration | This

  5. Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook 2014 - Macroeconomic...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    in this module. A detailed description of the MAM is provided in the EIA publication, Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy...

  6. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  7. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,153 3,143 -0.3% Price (centskWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.96 ...

  8. Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-03-23

    Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

  9. Petroleum Data, Natural Gas Data, Coal Data, Macroeconomic Data, Petroleum Import Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2009-01-18

    Supplemental tables to the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2006 for petroleum, natural gas, coal, macroeconomic, and import data

  10. Global Insight Energy Group

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Outlook Mary Novak Managing Director IHS Global Insight Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight, Inc. Overview: Energy Sector Transformation Underway * The recession has hit energy demand hard, and aggregate energy demand is not expected to return to 2007 levels until 2018. * Oil and natural gas prices will both rise over the long-term, but the price trends will diverge with natural gas prices rising slowly due to the development of shale gas. * This forecast does not include a GHG cap-and-trade

  11. An Evaluation of Macroeconomic Models for Use at EIA

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    An Evaluation of Macroeconomic Models for Use at EIA Vipin Arora December 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy Information Administration. WORKING PAPER SERIES December 2013 Vipin Arora | U.S. Energy Information Administration | This paper

  12. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  13. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  14. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  15. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  16. Using Wikipedia to forecast disease

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. December 22, 2014 Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505) 667-0471 Email "A global disease-forecasting system will improve

  17. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  18. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  19. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu

  20. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  1. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies ...

  2. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  3. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  4. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  5. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement ...

  6. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  7. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  8. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. File Acquisition-Forecast-2016-05-06.xlsx More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Small Business Program Manager Directory

  9. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  10. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report PDF icon Wind Forecast Improvement Project ...

  11. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. ... means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals. ...

  12. Sandia National Laboratories: Global Insight, Inc. / Department of Labor

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Facebook Twitter YouTube Flickr RSS Working with Sandia Global Insight, Inc. / Department of Labor Global Insight, Inc. (GII), was created by combining DRI (formerly Data Resources, Inc.) and WEFA (formerly Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates). Due to copyright/distribution laws being derived from a proprietary service that Sandia pays for, Sandia can no longer provide GII factor information at this website. However, Sandia will continue to supply the DOL and the "combined key

  13. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  14. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  15. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  16. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research supports industry, government, and academia by providing renewable energy resource measurements, models, maps, and support services. These resources are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research: Capabilities Facilities Research staff Data and resources. Resource assessment and forecasting research is primarily performed at

  17. Model developer`s appendix to the model documentation report: NEMS macroeconomic activity module

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1994-07-15

    The NEMS Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) tested here was used to generate the Annual Energy Outlook 1994 (AEO94). MAM is a response surface model, not a structural model, composed of three submodules: the National Submodule, the Interindustry Submodule, and the Regional Submodule. Contents of this report are as follows: properties of the mathematical solution; NEMS MAM empirical basis; and scenario analysis. Scenario analysis covers: expectations for scenario analysis; historical world oil price scenario; AEO94 high world oil price scenario; AEO94 low world oil price scenario; and immediate increase world oil price scenario.

  18. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  19. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  20. Solar Forecast Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    NOAA also will provide advanced satellite products. INNOVATIONS NOAA is providing numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling with new information that will help solar forecasts. ...

  1. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Management Tools and Best Practices Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices Development ...

  2. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  3. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  4. Model documentation report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-02-07

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook for 1994 (AEO94). The report catalogues and describes the module assumptions, computations, methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and mainframe source code. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the NEMS MAM used for the AEO 1994 production runs for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, section 57.b.2). Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects.

  5. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  6. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  7. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits ... Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits ...

  8. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio ...

  9. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar ...

  10. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  11. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  12. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  13. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  14. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  15. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  16. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  17. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Research Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Research Staff NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research staff provides expertise in renewable energy measurement and instrumentation through NREL's Power Systems Engineering Center. Photo not available Linda Crow - Administrative Associate B.S. Environmental Studies, The Evergreen State College Linda currently works for the Resource Assessment and Forecasting group as their administrative support. She has worked with scientists at the Office of Science at the Air Force Academy and at

  18. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  19. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  20. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  1. Energy Insight | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Energy Insight Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Energy Insight AgencyCompany Organization: Tendril Connect Sector: Energy Focus Area: Energy Efficiency...

  2. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  3. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  4. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  5. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  6. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  7. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  8. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  9. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wavelet-ARIMA (Conference) | SciTech Connect Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of

  10. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  11. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  12. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Preprint Jie Zhang 1 , Bri-Mathias Hodge 1 , Siyuan Lu 2 , Hendrik F. Hamann 2 , Brad Lehman 3 , Joseph Simmons 4 , Edwin Campos 5 , and Venkat Banunarayanan 6 1 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2 IBM TJ Watson Research Center 3 Northeastern University 4 University of Arizona 5 Argonne National Laboratory 6 U.S. Department of Energy Presented at the IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting Denver,

  13. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  14. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  15. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  16. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  17. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  18. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  19. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  20. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  1. Insights from a Developer

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Characteristics That Drive Savings in Behavior-Based Programs | Department of Energy Identifying Specific Actions, Behaviors, and Characteristics That Drive Savings in Behavior-Based Programs Insights from Smart Meters: Identifying Specific Actions, Behaviors, and Characteristics That Drive Savings in Behavior-Based Programs In this report, we use smart meter data to analyze specific actions, behaviors, and characteristics that drive energy savings in a BB program. Specifically, we examine a

  2. Update on INSIGHTS Development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Listed; Eric Burgett

    2011-09-01

    INSIGHTS is a transformational separate effects testing capability to perform in situ irradiation studies and characterization of the microscale behavior of nuclear fuel materials under a wide variety of in-pile conditions. Separate effects testing including growth, irradiation, and monitoring of these materials, and encompasses the full science based approach for fuels development from the nanoscale to the mesoscale behavior of the sample material and other defects driven by the modeling and simulation efforts of INL.

  3. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  4. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would

  5. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts. PDF icon Report of the External Peer Review Panel More Documents & Publications Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram Survey of Emissions Models for Distributed Combined Heat and Power

  6. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modelling Approach (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the

  7. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (BNL) Field Campaign Report (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Technical Report: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) [http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/osc2013rwpcf]

  8. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability | Department of Energy Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability This document is the notice of data availability for Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types. PDF icon

  9. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  10. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, ...

  11. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    These projects aim to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting that could increase penetration of solar power by enabling more certainty in power prediction from solar power ...

  12. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates ...

  13. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  14. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  15. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  16. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  17. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  18. Modeling for Insights

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacob J. Jacobson; Gretchen Matthern

    2007-04-01

    System Dynamics is a computer-aided approach to evaluating the interrelationships of different components and activities within complex systems. Recently, System Dynamics models have been developed in areas such as policy design, biological and medical modeling, energy and the environmental analysis, and in various other areas in the natural and social sciences. The real power of System Dynamic modeling is gaining insights into total system behavior as time, and system parameters are adjusted and the effects are visualized in real time. System Dynamic models allow decision makers and stakeholders to explore long-term behavior and performance of complex systems, especially in the context of dynamic processes and changing scenarios without having to wait decades to obtain field data or risk failure if a poor management or design approach is used. The Idaho National Laboratory recently has been developing a System Dynamic model of the US Nuclear Fuel Cycle. The model is intended to be used to identify and understand interactions throughout the entire nuclear fuel cycle and suggest sustainable development strategies. This paper describes the basic framework of the current model and presents examples of useful insights gained from the model thus far with respect to sustainable development of nuclear power.

  19. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  20. Insights on STEM Careers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wendelberger, Joanne Roth

    2014-11-05

    This presentation will provide career advice for individuals seeking to go beyond just having a job to building a successful career in the areas of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics. Careful planning can be used to turn a job into a springboard for professional advancement and personal satisfaction. Topics to be addressed include setting priorities, understanding career ladders, making tough choices, overcoming stereotypes and assumptions by others, networking, developing a professional identify, and balancing a career with family and other personal responsibilities. Insights on the transition from individual technical work to leadership will also be provided. The author will draw upon experiences gained in academic, industrial, and government laboratory settings, as well as extensive professional service and community involvement.

  1. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  2. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations | Department of Energy The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement

  3. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  4. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  5. Sandia National Laboratories: Global Insight, Inc. / Department...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    combining DRI (formerly Data Resources, Inc.) and WEFA (formerly Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates). Due to copyrightdistribution laws being derived from a proprietary...

  6. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  7. U.S. Solar Market Insight®: 2014 Year In Review (Executive Summary)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    U.S. Solar Market Insight is a quarterly publication of the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA)® and GTM Research. Each quarter, they survey nearly 200 installers, manufacturers, utilities, and state agencies to collect granular data on photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar. These data provide the backbone of the Solar Market Insight report, in which they identify and analyze trends in U.S. solar demand, manufacturing, and pricing by state and market segment. This analysis also forecasts demand over the next five years. As the U.S. solar market expands, it is the hope that Solar Market Insight will provide an invaluable decision-making tool for installers, suppliers, investors, policymakers, and advocates alike.

  8. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  9. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  10. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  11. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  12. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  13. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    love to hear from you Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR...

  14. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  15. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  16. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average 2.21 per gallon this summer. While that's 17 ...

  17. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  18. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    1) To provide profiles of the horizontal wind to be used to test and validate short-term cloud advection forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical ...

  19. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  20. Forecasting the oil-gasoline price relationship: should we care...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    (2007, EE) obtain similar results on a panel of 15 OECD countries, with annual data ... Results Point forecasts of the N.Y. gasoline price 26 Panel (a): daily data Model MSFE ...

  1. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration in Idaho and Oregon Page 1 Under the ... (RIT) that enables grid operators to use wind energy more cost-effectively to serve ...

  2. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Chesapeake Bay (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters

  3. Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations:

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Frequentist and Bayesian analyses (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological

  4. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and

  5. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Laboratory (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory Citation Details In-Document Search Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, therefore, the amount and stability of the energy output from the system, clouds represent the greatest source of short-term (i.e., scale of minutes to

  6. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  7. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NOAA Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007 Forecasting Challenge While weather experiments in the heart of Tornado Alley typically focus on severe weather, the CLASIC and CHAPS programs will have different emphases. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Norman, Okla. will provide weather forecasting support to these two Department of Energy experiments based in the state. Forecasting support for meteorological research field programs usually

  8. Space-Time Insight | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Space-Time Insight Jump to: navigation, search Name: Space-Time Insight Address: 45680 Northport Loop East Place: Fremont, California Zip: 94538 Region: Bay Area Sector: Efficiency...

  9. Insights into Methyltransferase Specificity and Bioactivity of...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: Insights into Methyltransferase Specificity and Bioactivity of Derivatives of the Antibiotic Plantazolicin Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Insights into ...

  10. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  11. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  12. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  13. Macroeconomic Activity Module

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    of employment by industry is industrial output. Both current and lagged output values enter in the employment specification, reflecting the tendency of firms to hire employees in...

  14. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  15. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  16. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  17. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  18. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  19. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  20. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  1. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during

  2. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting UCAR logo2.jpg The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research. APPROACH UCAR value chain.png The team will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through

  3. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Types | Department of Energy Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types More Documents & Publications Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability CX-100584 Categorical Exclusion Determination ISSUANCE

  4. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  5. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  6. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  7. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  8. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  9. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  10. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  11. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  12. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction ! " #" $ % % & # % " " " ' % ' ( ) * + " % ( , - . / 0 / " 0 . * 0 . * . . " 0 References A short model description Sensitivity tests Results Tropospheric humidity # " humidity 1 % 2 % ' 3 " % + 1 % 2 % % 3 % Updraft entrainment ' + % " 3 % 4 # " + %' 5 6)( . % ' 1 % .7

  13. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data Center (RReDC) Provides information about biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind energy resources. Measurement and Instrumentation Data Center Provides irradiance and meteorological data from stations throughout the United States. Baseline Measurement System (BMS) Provides live solar radiation data from approximately 70

  14. NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Elizabeth Torres Clayton Barrows Dave Bielen Aaron Bloom Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Wesley Cole Paul Denholm Nicholas DiOrio Aron Dobos Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Bethany Frew Pieter Gagnon Elaine Hale

  15. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  16. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  17. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  18. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  19. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred

    2008-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  20. Insights from UT Austin Energy Poll

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Insights from UT Austin Energy Poll on U.S. Consumer Attitudes, July 24, 2013, Sheril Kirshenbaum, director of The Energy Poll.

  1. Selecting Solar: Insights into Residential Photovoltaic (PV)...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Selecting Solar: Insights into Residential Photovoltaic (PV) Quote Variation Carolyn Davidson and Robert Margolis National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL...

  2. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  3. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  4. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  5. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  6. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Value of Improved Short- Term Wind Power Forecasting B.-M. Hodge and A. Florita National Renewable Energy Laboratory J. Sharp Sharply Focused, LLC M. Margulis and D. Mcreavy Lockheed Martin Technical Report NREL/TP-5D00-63175 February 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

  7. Functional Insights from Structural Genomics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Forouhar,F.; Kuzin, A.; Seetharaman, J.; Lee, I.; Zhou, W.; Abashidze, M.; Chen, Y.; Montelione, G.; Tong, L.; et al

    2007-01-01

    Structural genomics efforts have produced structural information, either directly or by modeling, for thousands of proteins over the past few years. While many of these proteins have known functions, a large percentage of them have not been characterized at the functional level. The structural information has provided valuable functional insights on some of these proteins, through careful structural analyses, serendipity, and structure-guided functional screening. Some of the success stories based on structures solved at the Northeast Structural Genomics Consortium (NESG) are reported here. These include a novel methyl salicylate esterase with important role in plant innate immunity, a novel RNA methyltransferase (H. influenzae yggJ (HI0303)), a novel spermidine/spermine N-acetyltransferase (B. subtilis PaiA), a novel methyltransferase or AdoMet binding protein (A. fulgidus AF{_}0241), an ATP:cob(I)alamin adenosyltransferase (B. subtilis YvqK), a novel carboxysome pore (E. coli EutN), a proline racemase homolog with a disrupted active site (B. melitensis BME11586), an FMN-dependent enzyme (S. pneumoniae SP{_}1951), and a 12-stranded {beta}-barrel with a novel fold (V. parahaemolyticus VPA1032).

  8. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  9. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  10. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  11. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  12. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  13. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  14. NREL: Technology Deployment - DGIC Interconnection Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    DGIC Interconnection Insights The Distributed Generation Interconnection Collaborative (DGIC) Insights provide answers to questions posed by DGIC participants, deliver timely updates on pressing interconnection issues, and disseminates analysis findings to inform decision making and planning. Utility Owned Roof Top Solar March 2016 by Kristen Ardani, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) These leaders are pioneering utility-owned rooftop solar programs to broaden the reach of solar PV

  15. Analyzing ocean mixing reveals insight on climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Analyzing ocean mixing reveals insight on climate Analyzing ocean mixing reveals insight on climate LANL scientists have developed a computer model that clarifies the complex processes driving ocean mixing in the vast eddies that swirl across hundreds of miles of open ocean. June 24, 2015 A three-dimensional spatial structure of mixing in an idealized ocean simulation, computed using Lagrangian particle statistics. A three-dimensional spatial structure of mixing in an idealized ocean simulation,

  16. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  17. Neutrons provide new insights into human cell behavior

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Neutrons provide new insights into human cell behavior Community Connections: Your link to ... All Issues submit Neutrons provide new insights into human cell behavior Physics and ...

  18. Neutrons provide new insights into human cell behavior

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Neutrons provide new insights into human cell behavior Alumni Link: Opportunities, News ... All Issues submit Neutrons provide new insights into human cell behavior Physics and ...

  19. Building America Whole-House Solutions for New Homes: Insight...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Building America Whole-House Solutions for New Homes: Insight Homes, Seaford, Delaware Case study of Insight Homes, who worked with the Building America research partner IBACOS to ...

  20. Insights from modeling and observational evaluation of a precipitating...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Insights from modeling and observational evaluation of a precipitating continental cumulus event observed during the MC3E field campaign Title: Insights from modeling and ...

  1. ALS Gives Chevron Scientists New Insights into Corrosion Resistance

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ALS Gives Chevron Scientists New Insights into Corrosion Resistance ALS Gives Chevron Scientists New Insights into Corrosion Resistance Print Thursday, 25 July 2013 13:44 In the...

  2. Voices of Experience: New Guide Offers Utilities' Insights on...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Voices of Experience: New Guide Offers Utilities' Insights on Engaging with Smart Grid Customers Voices of Experience: New Guide Offers Utilities' Insights on Engaging with Smart ...

  3. Structural insights into electron transfer in caa[subscript 3...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: Structural insights into electron transfer in caasubscript 3-type cytochrome oxidase Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Structural insights into electron ...

  4. Insight into Alzheimer's, cancer, anemia gleaned from ribosome...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Insights from ribosome research Insight into Alzheimer's, cancer, anemia gleaned from ribosome research Groundbreaking study of the human ribosome reveals tiny molecular machine is...

  5. Physics of Reliability: Evaluating Design Insights for Component...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Physics of Reliability: Evaluating Design Insights for Component Technologies in Solar (PREDICTS) Funding Opportunity Physics of Reliability: Evaluating Design Insights for ...

  6. Structural and mechanistic insights into Mps1 kinase activation...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Structural and mechanistic insights into Mps1 kinase activation Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Structural and mechanistic insights into Mps1 kinase activation Mps1 is ...

  7. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  8. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  9. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil prices low. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said world oil stocks are likely to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day this year and by 600,000 barrels per day next year. The higher forecast for inventory builds are the result of both higher global oil production and less oil

  10. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within...

  11. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled “Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.” By researching the physical processes...

  12. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  13. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an...

  14. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    That's down 12 percent from last summer's record exports. Biodiesel production, which averaged 68,000 barrels a day last summer, is forecast to jump to 82,000 barrels a day this ...

  15. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. ...

  16. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  17. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  18. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in ...

  19. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  20. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  1. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  2. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  3. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ARM Observations (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations (in English; Croatian) Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was

  4. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  5. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  6. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  7. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  8. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  9. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  10. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  11. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  12. Insights from Human/Mouse genome comparisons

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennacchio, Len A.

    2003-03-30

    Large-scale public genomic sequencing efforts have provided a wealth of vertebrate sequence data poised to provide insights into mammalian biology. These include deep genomic sequence coverage of human, mouse, rat, zebrafish, and two pufferfish (Fugu rubripes and Tetraodon nigroviridis) (Aparicio et al. 2002; Lander et al. 2001; Venter et al. 2001; Waterston et al. 2002). In addition, a high-priority has been placed on determining the genomic sequence of chimpanzee, dog, cow, frog, and chicken (Boguski 2002). While only recently available, whole genome sequence data have provided the unique opportunity to globally compare complete genome contents. Furthermore, the shared evolutionary ancestry of vertebrate species has allowed the development of comparative genomic approaches to identify ancient conserved sequences with functionality. Accordingly, this review focuses on the initial comparison of available mammalian genomes and describes various insights derived from such analysis.

  13. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    outcome of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular interest are: 1. Correlated behavior among variables (e.g., changes in dispatch stacks, production costs, or generation by type as a function of forecasting accuracy); 2. The relative reduction in wind curtailment with improved forecasting accuracy; and 3. The value of information (e.g., which subset of

  14. DOE Research and Development Accomplishments Interesting Insights

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    DNA Interesting Insights Atom Neat Stuff a pre-Pong video game (Tennis for Two) [Video game] why dinosaurs are extinct [Alvarez] BuckyBall 'optical tweezers' [Chu] the molecule named Buckminsterfullerene (Buckyball) [Curl, Smalley] femtochemistry [Zewail] the structure of protein [Deisenhofer] the maser and the laser [Townes] Gaussian Code [Pople] biological computer modeling [Levitt] chemical computer modeling [Karplus] the Manhattan Project brings an end to World War II an anti-jet-lag diet

  15. Network-based Analysis and Insights | NISAC

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NISACNetwork-based Analysis and Insights content top Chemical Supply Chain Analysis Posted by Admin on Mar 1, 2012 in | Comments 0 comments Chemical Supply Chain Analysis NISAC has developed a range of capabilities for analyzing the consequences of disruptions to the chemical manufacturing industry. Each capability provides a different but complementary perspective on the questions of interest-questions like Given an event, will the entire chemical sector be impacted or just parts? Which

  16. Insights from an overview of four PRAs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fitzpatrick, R.; Arrieta, L.; Teichmann, T.; Davis, P.

    1986-01-01

    This paper summarizes the findings of an investigation of four probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), those for Millstone 3, Seabrook, Shoreham, and Oconee 3, performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for the Reliability and Risk Assessment Branch of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). This group of four PRAs was subjected to an overview process with the basic goal of ascertaining what insights might be gained (beyond those already documented within the individual PRAs) by an independent evaluation of the group with respect to nuclear plant safety and vulnerability. Specifically, the objectives of the study were (1) to identify and rank initiators, systems, components, and failure modes from dominant accident sequences according to their contribution to core melt probability and public risk; and (2) to derive from this process plant-specific and generic insights. The effort was not intended to verify the specific details and results of each PRA but rather - having accepted the results - to see what they might mean in a more global context. The NRC had previously sponsored full detailed reviews of each of these PRAs, but only two, those for Millstone 3 and Shoreham, were completed and documented in time to allow their consideration within the study. This paper also presents some comments and insights into the amenability of certain features of these PRAs to this type of overview process.

  17. Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Print Wednesday, 25 February 2009 00:00 XPD helicase is an enzyme...

  18. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  19. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  20. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models includes the characterization of patient-specific response with implications for treatment management and research study design.

  1. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below $3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below $3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular gasoline should average $2.33 per gallon this year. The price of gasoline increased in early February after falling for 17 weeks in a row. But gasoline prices will continue to remain low in 2015 when compared with pump prices in recent

  2. A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the "Microbase" value added product (referred to as OBS, within

  3. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  4. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  5. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  6. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  7. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  8. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  9. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  10. AVTA: 2010 Honda Insight HEV Testing Results

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Vehicle Technologies Office's Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity carries out testing on a wide range of advanced vehicles and technologies on dynamometers, closed test tracks, and on-the-road. These results provide benchmark data that researchers can use to develop technology models and guide future research and development. The following reports describe results of testing done on a 2010 Honda Insight hybrid-electric vehicle. Baseline and other data collected at Idaho National Laboratory is in the attached documents. Baseline and battery testing data collected at Argonne National Laboratory is available in summary and CSV form on the Argonne Downloadable Dynometer Database site (http://www.anl.gov/energy-systems/group/downloadable-dynamometer-databas...). Taken together, these reports give an overall view of how this vehicle functions under extensive testing.

  11. Insights from Smart Meters: Identifying Specific Actions, Behaviors...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Drive Savings in Behavior-Based Programs Insights from Smart Meters: Identifying Specific Actions, Behaviors, and Characteristics That Drive Savings in Behavior-Based Programs In ...

  12. Insights from modeling and observational evaluation of a precipitating...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Insights from modeling and observational evaluation of a precipitating continental cumulus event observed during the MC3E field campaign Citation Details In-Document Search Title: ...

  13. Plasma Turbulence Simulations Reveal Promising Insight for Fusion...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Insight for Fusion Energy By Argonne National Laboratory March 31, 2014 Tweet Widget Google Plus One Share on Facebook Simulation of microturbulence in a tokamak fusion device. ...

  14. Bob Jaffe, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Insights from...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Bob Jaffe, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Insights from the Energy Critical Elements Policy Study by the American Physical Society and Material Research Society Bob Jaffe, ...

  15. Towards a deeper insight into strongly correlated electron systems...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    and theory Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Towards a deeper insight into strongly correlated electron systems- the symbiosis between experiment and theory Authors: ...

  16. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  17. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  18. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  19. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised upward its projection for crude oil output in 2013 by 70,000 barrels per day and for next year by 190,000 barrels per day. U.S. oil production is now on track to average 7.5 million barrels per day this year and rise to 8.4 million barrels per day in 2014, according to EIA's latest monthly forecast.

  20. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    System A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast System Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Category: Radiation A new processor for evaluating the UV-B and UV-A radiation at the surface, based on modifications to the current shortwave radiation scheme of the ECMWF forecast system is described. Sensitivity studies of the UV surface irradiance and Erythemal Dose Rate to spectral resolution, representation and atmospheric

  1. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  2. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  3. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  4. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  5. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  6. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  7. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  8. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    4 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ Bartholomew S Giangrande March 2016 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or

  9. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  10. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  11. doe sc arm 16 025 The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL_formatted

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    5 Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report MP Jensen SE Giangrande MJ Bartholomew April 2016 CLIMATE RESEARCH FACILITY DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any

  12. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  13. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  14. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  15. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  16. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  17. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  18. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  19. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  20. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  1. Thermal Evaluation of the Honda Insight Battery Pack: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zolot, M.D.; Kelly, K.; Keyser, M.; Mihalic, M.; Pesaran, A.; Hieronymus, A.

    2001-06-18

    The hybrid vehicle test efforts at National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), with a focus on the Honda Insight's battery thermal management system, are presented. The performance of the Insight's high voltage NiMH battery pack was characterized by conducting in-vehicle dynamometer testing at Environmental Testing Corporation's high altitude dynamometer test facility, on-road testing in the Denver area, and out-of-car testing in NREL's Battery Thermal Management Laboratory. It is concluded that performance does vary considerably due to thermal conditions the pack encounters. The performance variations are due to both inherent NiMH characteristics, and the Insight's thermal management system.

  2. Decision insight into stakeholder conflict for ERN.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Siirola, John; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Benz, Zachary O.; Stansbury, Melanie; Richards, Elizabeth H.; Turnley, Jessica Glicken; Warrender, Christina E.; Morrow, James Dan

    2012-02-01

    Participatory modeling has become an important tool in facilitating resource decision making and dispute resolution. Approaches to modeling that are commonly used in this context often do not adequately account for important human factors. Current techniques provide insights into how certain human activities and variables affect resource outcomes; however, they do not directly simulate the complex variables that shape how, why, and under what conditions different human agents behave in ways that affect resources and human interactions related to them. Current approaches also do not adequately reveal how the effects of individual decisions scale up to have systemic level effects in complex resource systems. This lack of integration prevents the development of more robust models to support decision making and dispute resolution processes. Development of integrated tools is further hampered by the fact that collection of primary data for decision-making modeling is costly and time consuming. This project seeks to develop a new approach to resource modeling that incorporates both technical and behavioral modeling techniques into a single decision-making architecture. The modeling platform is enhanced by use of traditional and advanced processes and tools for expedited data capture. Specific objectives of the project are: (1) Develop a proof of concept for a new technical approach to resource modeling that combines the computational techniques of system dynamics and agent based modeling, (2) Develop an iterative, participatory modeling process supported with traditional and advance data capture techniques that may be utilized to facilitate decision making, dispute resolution, and collaborative learning processes, and (3) Examine potential applications of this technology and process. The development of this decision support architecture included both the engineering of the technology and the development of a participatory method to build and apply the technology. Stakeholder interaction with the model and associated data capture was facilitated through two very different modes of engagement, one a standard interface involving radio buttons, slider bars, graphs and plots, while the other utilized an immersive serious gaming interface. The decision support architecture developed through this project was piloted in the Middle Rio Grande Basin to examine how these tools might be utilized to promote enhanced understanding and decision-making in the context of complex water resource management issues. Potential applications of this architecture and its capacity to lead to enhanced understanding and decision-making was assessed through qualitative interviews with study participants who represented key stakeholders in the basin.

  3. Structural Insight into the Regulation of the SNARE Assembly...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Insight into the Regulation of the SNARE Assembly by the Cell Polarity Protein Sro7 The cells that comprise many tissues are polarized, meaning that they have distinct 'sides' with...

  4. Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Print XPD helicase is an enzyme that unwinds the DNA double helix; it is one component of an essential repair mechanism that maintains the...

  5. Insights from Smart Meters: The Potential for Peak Hour Savings...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Insights from Smart Meters: The Potential for Peak Hour Savings from Behavior-Based Programs This report focuses on one example of the value that analysis of this data can provide: ...

  6. Worldwide Trends in Energy Use and Efficiency: Key Insights from...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Trends in Energy Use and Efficiency: Key Insights from International Energy Agency (IEA) Indicator Analysis in Support of the Group of Eight (G8) Plan of Action Jump to:...

  7. Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Print XPD helicase is an enzyme that unwinds the DNA double helix; it is one component of an essential repair mechanism...

  8. Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Print Wednesday, 25 February 2009 00:00 XPD helicase is an enzyme that unwinds the DNA double helix; it is one component of an essential repair mechanism that maintains the integrity of DNA. XPD is unique, however, in that pinpoint mutations of this single protein are responsible for three different human diseases: in xeroderma pigmentosum (XP), extreme sensitivity to sunlight

  9. Insight into Alzheimer's, cancer, anemia gleaned from ribosome research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Insights from ribosome research Insight into Alzheimer's, cancer, anemia gleaned from ribosome research Groundbreaking study of the human ribosome reveals tiny molecular machine is more versatile than previously understood December 22, 2014 The newly discovered rolling movement shown in (A) three-dimensional cryo-electron microscopy image of ribosome, and (B) computer-generated atomic-resolution model of the human ribosome consistent with microscopy. Figure 3. The newly discovered rolling

  10. High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights Print Wednesday, 26 February 2014 00:00 Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a remarkable class of relatively new materials that exist as a subclass of a larger group called coordination networks. MOFs have shown promise in a variety of applications ranging from gas storage to ion exchange. The materials are comprised of organic linkers that bridge discrete metal building units. Accurate

  11. Voices of Experience | Insights into Advanced Distribution Management

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Systems (February 2015) | Department of Energy Experience | Insights into Advanced Distribution Management Systems (February 2015) Voices of Experience | Insights into Advanced Distribution Management Systems (February 2015) The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 spurred investments in smart grid technology and programs at utilities across the country. The Smart Grid Investment Grant program and Smart Grid Demonstration projects that it funded provided unprecedented

  12. Voices of Experience: Insights on Smart Grid Customer Engagement (July

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    2013) | Department of Energy Experience: Insights on Smart Grid Customer Engagement (July 2013) Voices of Experience: Insights on Smart Grid Customer Engagement (July 2013) The success of the Smart Grid will depend in part on consumers taking a more proactive role in managing their energy use. This document is the result of a nine-month effort to compile information on the successful approaches used by utilities to engage customers regarding smart grid technology deployments. Voices of

  13. Voices of Experience: New Guide Offers Utilities' Insights on Engaging

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    with Smart Grid Customers | Department of Energy Voices of Experience: New Guide Offers Utilities' Insights on Engaging with Smart Grid Customers Voices of Experience: New Guide Offers Utilities' Insights on Engaging with Smart Grid Customers July 11, 2013 - 10:44am Addthis Eric Lightner Eric Lightner Director of the Federal Smart Grid Task Force in the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability The smart grid is creating numerous new opportunities for consumers to better manage

  14. Structural insights into [mu]-opioid receptor activation (Journal Article)

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    | SciTech Connect Structural insights into [mu]-opioid receptor activation Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Structural insights into [mu]-opioid receptor activation Authors: Huang, Weijiao ; Manglik, Aashish ; Venkatakrishnan, A.J. ; Laeremans, Toon ; Feinberg, Evan N. ; Sanborn, Adrian L. ; Kato, Hideaki E. ; Livingston, Kathryn E. ; Thorsen, Thor S. ; Kling, Ralf C. ; Granier, Sébastien ; Gmeiner, Peter ; Husbands, Stephen M. ; Traynor, John R. ; Weis, William I. ; Steyaert, Jan

  15. Nuclear magnetic resonance offers new insights into Pu 239

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Nuclear magnetic resonance offers new insights into Pu 239 Nuclear magnetic resonance offers new insights into Pu 239 Fingerprint of element found by LANL/Japanese team. May 29, 2012 How would the detonation of a nuclear energy source afffect an incoming asteroid? Georgios Koutroulakis and H. Yasuoka in the condensed-matter NMR lab at Los Alamos National Laboratory after having observed the magnetic resonance signal of Pu 239 for the first time. Get Expertise Scientist Eric Bauer Condensed

  16. A Carbon Flux Super Site. New Insights and Innovative

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Atmosphere-Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Measurements and Modeling (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect A Carbon Flux Super Site. New Insights and Innovative Atmosphere-Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Measurements and Modeling Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Carbon Flux Super Site. New Insights and Innovative Atmosphere-Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Measurements and Modeling This final report presents the main activities and results of the project "A Carbon Flux Super Site: New

  17. Anthropogenic plutonium-244 in the environment: Insights into plutonium's

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    longest-lived isotope (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Anthropogenic plutonium-244 in the environment: Insights into plutonium's longest-lived isotope Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Anthropogenic plutonium-244 in the environment: Insights into plutonium's longest-lived isotope Authors: Armstrong, Christopher R. ; Brant, Heather A. ; Nuessle, Patterson R. ; Hall, Gregory ; Cadieux, James R. Publication Date: 2016-02-22 OSTI Identifier: 1252475 Report Number(s):

  18. Jefferson Lab holds educational, insightful science lectures in June |

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Jefferson Lab holds educational, insightful science lectures in June Jefferson Lab holds educational, insightful science lectures in June June 11, 2007 Jefferson Lab is hosting two free, public lectures on consecutive evenings in June. The Monday, June 18, presentation highlights the genius and scientific discoveries of Benjamin Franklin. By establishing that lightning is electrical and that electricity involves charge, Franklin's research opened the way for many new discoveries. Fred Dylla,

  19. Katharine Page: Atomic-level insights for better materials

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Katharine Page: Atomic-level insights for better materials Alumni Link: Opportunities, News and Resources for Former Employees Latest Issue:September 2015 all issues All Issues » submit Katharine Page: Atomic-level insights for better materials Page's research supports materials' advances that could have wide-ranging impact, investigating, manipulating and manufacturing nano-particles. May 1, 2014 Katherine Page Katherine Page Contact Linda Anderman Email A Love for Science Impassioned by

  20. ALS Gives Chevron Scientists New Insights into Corrosion Resistance

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ALS Gives Chevron Scientists New Insights into Corrosion Resistance ALS Gives Chevron Scientists New Insights into Corrosion Resistance Print Thursday, 25 July 2013 13:44 In the chemical environments common in energy production plants, steel pipes and equipment can accumulate layers of iron sulfide, some of which are corrosion resistant and provide protection to the steel surface. Understanding how operating conditions affect steel surface layers can improve corrosion rate estimates, decreasing

  1. Crystal Structures of Phosphite Dehydrogenase Provide Insights into

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Nicotinamide Cofactor Regeneration (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Crystal Structures of Phosphite Dehydrogenase Provide Insights into Nicotinamide Cofactor Regeneration Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Crystal Structures of Phosphite Dehydrogenase Provide Insights into Nicotinamide Cofactor Regeneration The enzyme phosphite dehydrogenase (PTDH) catalyzes the NAD{sup +}-dependent conversion of phosphite to phosphate and represents

  2. Insights into Methyltransferase Specificity and Bioactivity of Derivatives

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    of the Antibiotic Plantazolicin (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Journal Article: Insights into Methyltransferase Specificity and Bioactivity of Derivatives of the Antibiotic Plantazolicin Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Insights into Methyltransferase Specificity and Bioactivity of Derivatives of the Antibiotic Plantazolicin Authors: Hao, Yue ; Blair, Patricia M. ; Sharma, Abhishek ; Mitchell, Douglas A. ; Nair, Satish K. [1] + Show Author Affiliations (UIUC) Publication Date:

  3. Atomistic insights into aqueous corrosion of copper. (Journal Article) |

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    SciTech Connect Atomistic insights into aqueous corrosion of copper. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Atomistic insights into aqueous corrosion of copper. Corrosion is a fundamental problem in electrochemistry and represents a mode of failure of technologically important materials. Understanding the basic mechanism of aqueous corrosion of metals such as Cu in presence of halide ions is hence essential. Using molecular dynamics simulations incorporating reactive force-field

  4. Ribosome research in atomic detail offers potential insights into cancer,

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    anemia, Alzheimer's Ribosome research offers potential insights into cancer Ribosome research in atomic detail offers potential insights into cancer, anemia, Alzheimer's A groundbreaking study of the human ribosome is revealing that the tiny molecular machine is more versatile than previously understood. July 3, 2014 Figure 3. The newly discovered rolling movement shown in (A) three-dimensional cryo-electron microscopy image of ribosome, and (B) computer-generated atomic-resolution model of

  5. Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights Print Wednesday, 27 January 2010 00:00 Cells depend on contact with their outside environment in order to thrive. Two examples illustrate why: In one, information needed to guide cellular processes is constantly transmitted across cell membranes by specialized proteins, and in the other, maintaining the right gradient of ions across the membrane is

  6. Towards a deeper insight into strongly correlated electron systems- the

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    symbiosis between experiment and theory (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Towards a deeper insight into strongly correlated electron systems- the symbiosis between experiment and theory Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Towards a deeper insight into strongly correlated electron systems- the symbiosis between experiment and theory Authors: Fischer, Peter Publication Date: 2007-03-01 OSTI Identifier: 926613 Report Number(s): LBNL--63253 R&D Project: 509201; BnR: KC0202020 DOE

  7. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  8. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  9. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  10. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  11. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.

  12. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOE/SC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ Bartholomew S Giangrande March 2016 CLIMATE RESEARCH FACILITY DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy,

  13. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  14. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    7a. Space Heating by Census Region and Climate Zone, Million U.S. Households, 1993 Space Heating Characteristics RSE Column Factor: Total Census Region Climate Zone RSE Row Factors Northeast Midwest South West Fewer than 2,000 CDD and -- More than 2,000 CDD and Few- er than 4,000 HDD More than 7,000 HDD 5,500 to 7,000 HDD 4,000 to 5,499 HDD Few- er than 4,000 HDD 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Total ................................................. 96.6 19.5 23.3 33.5 20.4 8.7 26.5

  15. Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    introduction in 1992 of an American-made truck with a fully factory-installed/war- ranted liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) engine represents another "Ford first" in the alternative fuel arena. Now the company has introduced an LPG- powered F-700, a medium/heavy- duty truck. According to Tom Steckel, Ford's medium-duty marketing man- ager, Ford's latest sales figures already prove the alternative fuel F-700's popularity. With a little more than 10 months of the model year finished, Ford

  16. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  17. Solar wind samples give insight into birth of solar system

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Solar and wind power advancing U.S. electricity generation from wind and solar energy show no signs of slowing down. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects wind-powered generation to grow by 19 percent this year and rise another 8 percent in 2014. Congress's extension in January of a tax credit for electricity producers that use renewables is behind the wind power boost. Solar generation in the electric power sector is expected to grow even more, rising

  18. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  19. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  20. Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    ... Because the capital stock does not change much in the short ... of reserves in the banking system and the fractional reserve ... or emission permits: This class of simulations levies some ...

  1. Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module of...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    are covered in order to meet client needs regarding investment and financial allocation strategies. (See Table A10.) Inflation: Inflation (VI) is modeled as a...

  2. Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module of...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    of employment by industry is industry output. Both current and lagged output values enter in the employment specification, reflecting the tendency for hiring to lag output...

  3. Energy Information Administration NEMS Macroeconomic Activity...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    of employment by industry is industrial output. Both current and lagged output values enter in the employment specification, reflecting the tendency of firms to hire employees in...

  4. Microsoft Word - macroeconomic_aeo2012.docx

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Gross State Product The MAM projects regional gross regional product in real per capita terms. The equations are in log form. There is an estimated equation for each of the nine...

  5. Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Gross State Product The MAM projects regional gross regional product in real per capita terms. The equations are in log form. There is an estimated equation for each of the nine...

  6. Selecting Solar. Insights into Residential Photovoltaic (PV) Quote Variation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davidson, Carolyn; Margolis, Robert

    2015-10-01

    This analysis leverages available data from EnergySage, an online solar marketplace, to offer the first data-driven characterization of quote variation faced by prospective PV customers, lending early insight into the decisions customers face once they have initial buy-in.

  7. Proteins' Amazing Origami Powers: Insight for Potential Disease Treatments

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Better knowledge of protein folding could in turn provide more insight into the diseases associated with malformed proteins, such as Alzheimer's and Cystic Fibrosis, and potential fixes for those malformations. That in turn could lead to new possibilities for new treatments.

  8. Department of Energy award DE-SC0004164 Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reno Harnish

    2011-08-16

    The Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts symposium was attended by senior policy makers and distinguished scientists. The juxtaposition of these communities was creative and fruitful. They acknowledged they were speaking past each other. Scientists were urged to tell policy makers about even improbable outcomes while articulating clearly the uncertainties around the outcomes. As one policy maker put it, we are accustomed to making these types of decisions. These points were captured clearly in an article that appeared on the New York Times website and can be found with other conference materials most easily on our website, www.scripps.ucsd.edu/cens/. The symposium, generously supported by the NOAA/JIMO, benefitted the public by promoting scientifically informed decision making and by the transmission of objective information regarding climate change and national security.

  9. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  10. Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennock, K.

    2012-10-01

    AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

  11. HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST CATEGORY Total Procurement Total SB Small Disad. Bus Woman-Owned SB Hub-Zone SB Veteran-Owned SB Service Disabled Vet. SB FY 2009 Dollars Goal (projected) $183,949,920 $82,690,000 $4,550,000 $8,829,596 $3,370,000 $5,025,000 $460,000 FY 2009 Dollars Accomplished $143,846,731 $68,174,398 $9,247,214 $11,333,905 $4,979,858 $6,713,791 $1,612,136 FY 2009 % Goal 45.0% 2.5% 4.8% 1.8% 2.7% 0.25% FY

  12. Macro-Industrial Working Group: meeting 1

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    30 2013 Macroeconomic team: Kay Smith, Russ Tarver, Elizabeth Sendich and Vipin Arora Briefing on Macroeconomic Reference Case for the Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Macroeconomic/Industrial Working Group Meeting Presentation Goals * The Reference Case presented is the GI May Long-term Trend forecast. Due to the comprehensive revision of the GDP accounts, released at the end of July, we will not update the macro projection to an August baseline in order to keep on the AEO2014 schedule. The GI August

  13. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  14. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  15. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the flying brick technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  16. Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Print XPD helicase is an enzyme that unwinds the DNA double helix; it is one component of an essential repair mechanism that maintains the integrity of DNA. XPD is unique, however, in that pinpoint mutations of this single protein are responsible for three different human diseases: in xeroderma pigmentosum (XP), extreme sensitivity to sunlight promotes cancer; Cockayne syndrome (CS) involves stunted growth and premature aging;

  17. Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Print XPD helicase is an enzyme that unwinds the DNA double helix; it is one component of an essential repair mechanism that maintains the integrity of DNA. XPD is unique, however, in that pinpoint mutations of this single protein are responsible for three different human diseases: in xeroderma pigmentosum (XP), extreme sensitivity to sunlight promotes cancer; Cockayne syndrome (CS) involves stunted growth and premature aging;

  18. Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Print XPD helicase is an enzyme that unwinds the DNA double helix; it is one component of an essential repair mechanism that maintains the integrity of DNA. XPD is unique, however, in that pinpoint mutations of this single protein are responsible for three different human diseases: in xeroderma pigmentosum (XP), extreme sensitivity to sunlight promotes cancer; Cockayne syndrome (CS) involves stunted growth and premature aging;

  19. Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Print XPD helicase is an enzyme that unwinds the DNA double helix; it is one component of an essential repair mechanism that maintains the integrity of DNA. XPD is unique, however, in that pinpoint mutations of this single protein are responsible for three different human diseases: in xeroderma pigmentosum (XP), extreme sensitivity to sunlight promotes cancer; Cockayne syndrome (CS) involves stunted growth and premature aging;

  20. Hewlett Packard Labs Gains Insights with Innovative ALS Research Tools

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Hewlett Packard Labs Gains Insights with Innovative ALS Research Tools Print For the past eight years, Hewlett Packard Labs, the central research organization of Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), has been using cutting-edge ALS techniques to advance some of their most promising technological research. Hewlett Packard Labs researchers, including Suhas Kumar, Catherine Graves, and John Paul Strachan, recently made the cover of Applied Physics Letters with an ALS-based project that revealed key

  1. High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights Print Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a remarkable class of relatively new materials that exist as a subclass of a larger group called coordination networks. MOFs have shown promise in a variety of applications ranging from gas storage to ion exchange. The materials are comprised of organic linkers that bridge discrete metal building units. Accurate structural knowledge is key to the understanding of the applicability of these materials,

  2. High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights Print Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a remarkable class of relatively new materials that exist as a subclass of a larger group called coordination networks. MOFs have shown promise in a variety of applications ranging from gas storage to ion exchange. The materials are comprised of organic linkers that bridge discrete metal building units. Accurate structural knowledge is key to the understanding of the applicability of these materials,

  3. High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights Print Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a remarkable class of relatively new materials that exist as a subclass of a larger group called coordination networks. MOFs have shown promise in a variety of applications ranging from gas storage to ion exchange. The materials are comprised of organic linkers that bridge discrete metal building units. Accurate structural knowledge is key to the understanding of the applicability of these materials,

  4. High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights Print Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a remarkable class of relatively new materials that exist as a subclass of a larger group called coordination networks. MOFs have shown promise in a variety of applications ranging from gas storage to ion exchange. The materials are comprised of organic linkers that bridge discrete metal building units. Accurate structural knowledge is key to the understanding of the applicability of these materials,

  5. High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights Print Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a remarkable class of relatively new materials that exist as a subclass of a larger group called coordination networks. MOFs have shown promise in a variety of applications ranging from gas storage to ion exchange. The materials are comprised of organic linkers that bridge discrete metal building units. Accurate structural knowledge is key to the understanding of the applicability of these materials,

  6. Insights from Smart Meters: Identifying Specific Actions, Behaviors, and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Characteristics That Drive Savings in Behavior-Based Programs | Department of Energy Identifying Specific Actions, Behaviors, and Characteristics That Drive Savings in Behavior-Based Programs Insights from Smart Meters: Identifying Specific Actions, Behaviors, and Characteristics That Drive Savings in Behavior-Based Programs In this report, we use smart meter data to analyze specific actions, behaviors, and characteristics that drive energy savings in a BB program. Specifically, we examine a

  7. New imaging technique provides improved insight into controlling the plasma

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    in fusion experiments | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab New imaging technique provides improved insight into controlling the plasma in fusion experiments By John Greenwald December 9, 2013 Tweet Widget Google Plus One Share on Facebook Graphic representation of 2D images of fluctuating electron temperatures in a cross-section of a confined fusion plasma. Graphic representation of 2D images of fluctuating electron temperatures in a cross-section of a confined fusion plasma. A key issue for the

  8. New imaging technique provides improved insight into controlling the plasma

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    in fusion experiments | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab New imaging technique provides improved insight into controlling the plasma in fusion experiments By John Greenwald December 9, 2013 Tweet Widget Google Plus One Share on Facebook Graphic representation of 2D images of fluctuating electron temperatures in a cross-section of a confined fusion plasma. Graphic representation of 2D images of fluctuating electron temperatures in a cross-section of a confined fusion plasma. A key issue for the

  9. New insights into regulating the gut's microbial community | Argonne

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    National Laboratory insights into regulating the gut's microbial community August 27, 2015 Tweet EmailPrint The human body is home to billions of microbial cells, a number roughly three to 10 times greater than the number of human cells. Many of these microbes reside in the gastrointestinal system, or gut, and form a symbiotic relationship with their human hosts. These "commensal" organisms do not causes illness and in fact provide us with crucial metabolic and nutritional benefits

  10. Design Principles of Coherent Photosynthetic Energy Transport: Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    from Two Dimensional Electronic Spectroscopy | MIT-Harvard Center for Excitonics Design Principles of Coherent Photosynthetic Energy Transport: Insights from Two Dimensional Electronic Spectroscopy November 10, 2009 at 3pm/36-428 Greg Engel Department of Chemistry, The James Franck Institute, University of Chicago engel abstract: Life on earth is effectively solar powered, yet how energy moves through photosynthetic complexes prior to the biochemical steps of photosynthesis is still not

  11. Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Print XPD helicase is an enzyme that unwinds the DNA double helix; it is one component of an essential repair mechanism that maintains the integrity of DNA. XPD is unique, however, in that pinpoint mutations of this single protein are responsible for three different human diseases: in xeroderma pigmentosum (XP), extreme sensitivity to sunlight promotes cancer; Cockayne syndrome (CS) involves stunted growth and premature aging;

  12. Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Print XPD helicase is an enzyme that unwinds the DNA double helix; it is one component of an essential repair mechanism that maintains the integrity of DNA. XPD is unique, however, in that pinpoint mutations of this single protein are responsible for three different human diseases: in xeroderma pigmentosum (XP), extreme sensitivity to sunlight promotes cancer; Cockayne syndrome (CS) involves stunted growth and premature aging;

  13. Mechanistic Insight into the Formation of Cationic Naked Nanocrystals

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Generated Under Equilibrium Control - Joint Center for Energy Storage Research October 24, 2014, Research Highlights Mechanistic Insight into the Formation of Cationic Naked Nanocrystals Generated Under Equilibrium Control Pre-JCESR stripping chemistries (for cationic NC): NOBF4 (strong oxidant, not suitable for many compositions, ~$600/mol) Et3OBF4 (mild, but still causes adatom desorption for some sensitive compositions, ~$800/mol) New ligand-stripping chemistry developed within JCESR:

  14. High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights Print Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a remarkable class of relatively new materials that exist as a subclass of a larger group called coordination networks. MOFs have shown promise in a variety of applications ranging from gas storage to ion exchange. The materials are comprised of organic linkers that bridge discrete metal building units. Accurate structural knowledge is key to the understanding of the applicability of these materials,

  15. High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights Print Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a remarkable class of relatively new materials that exist as a subclass of a larger group called coordination networks. MOFs have shown promise in a variety of applications ranging from gas storage to ion exchange. The materials are comprised of organic linkers that bridge discrete metal building units. Accurate structural knowledge is key to the understanding of the applicability of these materials,

  16. Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights Print Cells depend on contact with their outside environment in order to thrive. Two examples illustrate why: In one, information needed to guide cellular processes is constantly transmitted across cell membranes by specialized proteins, and in the other, maintaining the right gradient of ions across the membrane is a process critical to the life and death of a cell. Membrane transport proteins-functioning either as

  17. Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights Print Cells depend on contact with their outside environment in order to thrive. Two examples illustrate why: In one, information needed to guide cellular processes is constantly transmitted across cell membranes by specialized proteins, and in the other, maintaining the right gradient of ions across the membrane is a process critical to the life and death of a cell. Membrane transport proteins-functioning either as

  18. Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights Print Cells depend on contact with their outside environment in order to thrive. Two examples illustrate why: In one, information needed to guide cellular processes is constantly transmitted across cell membranes by specialized proteins, and in the other, maintaining the right gradient of ions across the membrane is a process critical to the life and death of a cell. Membrane transport proteins-functioning either as

  19. Plasma Turbulence Simulations Reveal Promising Insight for Fusion Energy |

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Princeton Plasma Physics Lab Plasma Turbulence Simulations Reveal Promising Insight for Fusion Energy By Argonne National Laboratory March 31, 2014 Tweet Widget Google Plus One Share on Facebook Simulation of microturbulence in a tokamak fusion device. (Credit: Chad Jones and Kwan-Liu Ma, University of California, Davis; Stephane Ethier, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory) Simulation of microturbulence in a tokamak fusion device. (Credit: Chad Jones and Kwan-Liu Ma, University of

  20. Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights Print Cells depend on contact with their outside environment in order to thrive. Two examples illustrate why: In one, information needed to guide cellular processes is constantly transmitted across cell membranes by specialized proteins, and in the other, maintaining the right gradient of ions across the membrane is a process critical to the life and death of a cell. Membrane transport proteins-functioning either as

  1. Model year 2010 Honda insight level-1 testing report.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rask, E.; Bocci, D.; Duoba, M.; Lohse-Busch, H.

    2011-03-22

    As a part of the US Department of Energy's Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA), a model year 2010 Honda Insight was procured by eTec (Phoenix, AZ) and sent to ANL's Advanced Powertrain Research Facility for the purposes of vehicle-level testing in support of the Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA). Data was acquired during testing using non-intrusive sensors, vehicle network information, and facilities equipment (emissions and dynamometer data). Standard drive cycles, performance cycles, steady-state cycles and A/C usage cycles were tested. Much of this data is openly available for download in ANL's Downloadable Dynamometer Database (D3). The major results are shown here in this report. Given the preliminary nature of this assessment, the majority of the testing was done over standard regulatory cycles and seeks to obtain a general overview of how the vehicle performs. These cycles include the US FTP cycle (Urban) and Highway Fuel Economy Test cycle as well as the US06, a more aggressive supplemental regulatory cycle. Data collection for this testing was kept at a fairly high level and includes emissions and fuel measurements from an exhaust emissions bench, high-voltage and accessory current and voltage from a DC power analyzer, and CAN bus data such as engine speed, engine load, and electric machine operation when available. The following sections will seek to explain some of the basic operating characteristics of the MY2010 Insight and provide insight into unique features of its operation and design.

  2. Insights into capacity loss mechanisms in Li-ion all-solid-state...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Insights into capacity loss mechanisms in Li-ion all-solid-state batteries with Al anodes Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Insights into capacity loss mechanisms in...

  3. Structural insight into the regulation of MOF in the male-specific...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Structural insight into the regulation of MOF in the male-specific lethal complex and the non-specific lethal complex Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Structural insight ...

  4. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  5. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  6. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  7. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  8. Demand forecasting and revenue requirements, with implications for consideration in British Columbia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Acton, J.P.

    1983-05-01

    This paper was filed as an exhibit on behalf of The Consumers' Association of Canada (B.C. Branch), The Federated Anti-Poverty Groups of B.C., The Sierra Club of Western Canada, and the B.C. Old Age Pensioners' Organization. It was subjected to cross-examination on October 29, 1982, during Phase I of the hearings. The Utilities Commission had designated Phase I for consideration of (1) demand, (2) assets in service, (3) revenue requirements excluding return, and (4) financing and capital requirements. This paper presents a general discussion of the elements of a rate structure and their relationship to the demand for electricity, a systematic review of some 50 empirical studies of the demand for electricity as a function of price and other factors by the three principal classes of customers, and a discussion of the notion of revenue requirements. The paper should be of interest to utility regulators, rate specialists, and forecasters for its review of demand models and to academics concerned with the study of energy demand.

  9. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  10. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  11. Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R.

    1995-12-01

    This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

  12. The Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE 4 th Solar Integration Workshop Carlo Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Anthony Florita, and Bri-Mathias Hodge Berlin, Germany November 10, 2014 NREL/PR-5000-63082 2 Motivation and Scope * The economic benefits from renewable energy forecasting are largely unquantified in the power community o Current renewable energy penetration levels in the United States are often too low to appreciably quantify the value of improving renewable energy

  13. Selecting Solar: Insights into Residential Photovoltaic (PV) Quote Variation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davidson, Carolyn; Margolis, Robert

    2015-10-01

    Before investing in a system, a prospective PV customer must not only have initial concept 'buy in,' but also be able to evaluate the tradeoffs associated with different system parameters. Prospective customers might need to evaluate disparate costs for each system attribute by comparing multiple bids. The difficulty of making such an evaluation with limited information can create a cognitive barrier to proceeding with the investment. This analysis leverages recently available data from EnergySage, an online solar marketplace, to offer the first data-driven characterization of quote variation faced by prospective PV customers, lending early insight into the decisions customers face once they have initial buy-in.

  14. Technology data characterizing water heating in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    Commercial-sector conservation analyses have traditionally focused on lighting and space conditioning because of their relatively-large shares of electricity and fuel consumption in commercial buildings. In this report we focus on water heating, which is one of the neglected end uses in the commercial sector. The share of the water-heating end use in commercial-sector electricity consumption is 3%, which corresponds to 0.3 quadrillion Btu (quads) of primary energy consumption. Water heating accounts for 15% of commercial-sector fuel use, which corresponds to 1.6 quads of primary energy consumption. Although smaller in absolute size than the savings associated with lighting and space conditioning, the potential cost-effective energy savings from water heaters are large enough in percentage terms to warrant closer attention. In addition, water heating is much more important in particular building types than in the commercial sector as a whole. Fuel consumption for water heating is highest in lodging establishments, hospitals, and restaurants (0.27, 0.22, and 0.19 quads, respectively); water heating`s share of fuel consumption for these building types is 35%, 18% and 32%, respectively. At the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we have developed and refined a base-year data set characterizing water heating technologies in commercial buildings as well as a modeling framework. We present the data and modeling framework in this report. The present commercial floorstock is characterized in terms of water heating requirements and technology saturations. Cost-efficiency data for water heating technologies are also developed. These data are intended to support models used for forecasting energy use of water heating in the commercial sector.

  15. "Omics of the mammalian gut new insights into function

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lamendella, Regina; Verberkmoes, Nathan C; Jansson, Janet

    2012-01-01

    To understand the role of gut microbes in host health, it is imperative to probe their genetic potential, expression, and ecological status. The current high-throughput sequencing revolution, in addition to advances in mass spectrometry-based proteomics, have recently enabled deep access to these complex environments, and are revealing important insights into the roles of the gastrointestinal (GI) microbiota in host physiology and health. This review discusses examples of how the integration of cutting-edge meta-omics technologies are providing new knowledge about the relationships between host health status in mammals and the microbes inhabiting the GI tract. In addition, we address some promises that these techniques hold for future therapeutic and diagnostic applications.

  16. Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

  17. ON THE IMPACT OF SUPER RESOLUTION WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiswell, S

    2009-01-11

    Assimilation of radar velocity and precipitation fields into high-resolution model simulations can improve precipitation forecasts with decreased 'spin-up' time and improve short-term simulation of boundary layer winds (Benjamin, 2004 & 2007; Xiao, 2008) which is critical to improving plume transport forecasts. Accurate description of wind and turbulence fields is essential to useful atmospheric transport and dispersion results, and any improvement in the accuracy of these fields will make consequence assessment more valuable during both routine operation as well as potential emergency situations. During 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) radars implemented a significant upgrade which increased the real-time level II data resolution to 8 times their previous 'legacy' resolution, from 1 km range gate and 1.0 degree azimuthal resolution to 'super resolution' 250 m range gate and 0.5 degree azimuthal resolution (Fig 1). These radar observations provide reflectivity, velocity and returned power spectra measurements at a range of up to 300 km (460 km for reflectivity) at a frequency of 4-5 minutes and yield up to 13.5 million point observations per level in super-resolution mode. The migration of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D radars to super resolution is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current operational mesoscale model domains utilize grid spacing several times larger than the legacy data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of super resolution reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution is investigated here to determine the impact of the improved data resolution on model predictions.

  18. Structural Insights into the Mechanism of PEPCK Catalysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Holyoak,T.; Sullivan, S.; Nowak, T.

    2006-01-01

    Phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase catalyzes the reversible decarboxylation of oxaloacetic acid with the concomitant transfer of the {gamma}-phosphate of GTP to form PEP and GDP as the first committed step of gluconeogenesis and glyceroneogenesis. The three structures of the mitochondrial isoform of PEPCK reported are complexed with Mn{sup 2+}, Mn{sup 2+}-PEP, or Mn{sup 2+}-malonate-Mn{sup 2+}GDP and provide the first observations of the structure of the mitochondrial isoform and insight into the mechanism of catalysis mediated by this enzyme. The structures show the involvement of the hyper-reactive cysteine (C307) in the coordination of the active site Mn{sup 2+}. Upon formation of the PEPCK-Mn{sup 2+}-PEP or PEPCK-Mn{sup 2+}-malonate-Mn{sup 2+}GDP complexes, C307 coordination is lost as the P-loop in which it resides adopts a different conformation. The structures suggest that stabilization of the cysteine-coordinated metal geometry holds the enzyme as a catalytically incompetent metal complex and may represent a previously unappreciated mechanism of regulation. A third conformation of the mobile P-loop in the PEPCK-Mn{sup 2+}-malonate-Mn{sup 2+}GDP complex demonstrates the participation of a previously unrecognized, conserved serine residue (S305) in mediating phosphoryl transfer. The ordering of the mobile active site lid in the PEPCK-Mn{sup 2+}-malonate-Mn{sup 2+}GDP complex yields the first observation of this structural feature and provides additional insight into the mechanism of phosphoryl transfer.

  19. Energy consumption and expenditure projections by population group on the basis of the annual energy outlook 1999 forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poyer, D.A.; Balsley, J.H.

    2000-01-07

    This report presents an analysis of the relative impact of the base-case scenario used in Annual Energy Outlook 1999 on different population groups. Projections of energy consumption and expenditures, as well as energy expenditure as a share of income, from 1996 to 2020 are given. The projected consumption of electricty, natural gas, distillate fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas during this period is also reported for each population group. In addition, this report compares the findings of the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 report with the 1998 report. Changes in certain indicators and information affect energy use forecasts, and these effects are analyzed and discussed.

  20. A Carbon Flux Super Site. New Insights and InnovativeAtmosphere...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Flux Super Site. New Insights and Innovative Atmosphere-Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Measurements and Modeling Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Carbon Flux Super Site. ...

  1. Structural and mechanistic insights into Mcm2-7 double-hexamer...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    and mechanistic insights into Mcm2-7 double-hexamer assembly and function Sun, Jingchuan Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Li, Huilin Brookhaven...

  2. Physics of Reliability: Evaluating Design Insights for Component Technologies in Solar (PREDICTS) Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Physics of Reliability: Evaluating Design Insights for Component Technologies in Solar (PREDICTS) program supports projects that evaluate the degradation and failure mechanisms of concentrating...

  3. New Whole-House Solutions Case Study: Insight Homes, Seaford, Delaware

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Insight Homes of Bridgeville, Delaware, has worked with Building America's IBACOS team to refine its home designs to achieve HERS scores of 49 to 56 on 40 to 70 homes per year. For Insight Homes, energy efficiency sells. Marketing its homes exclusively based on energy efficiency, Insight Homes sold 38 homes in 2009, 54 in 2010, and 70 homes in 2011, and had a long backlog of orders for new homes in 2012. As a builder in humid East Coast climates, Insight Homes pays particular attention to

  4. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (stochastic) model with the weather forecast model (deterministic) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  5. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2005-08-17

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

  6. Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anggraeni, Novia Antika

    2015-04-24

    The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.

  7. Making Sustainable Energy Choices: Insights on the Energy/Water/Land Nexus

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2014-10-01

    This periodic publication summarizes insights from the body of NREL analysis work. In this issue of Analysis Insights, we examine the implications of our energy choices on water, land use, climate, developmental goals, and other factors. Collectively, NREL's work helps policymakers and investors understand and evaluate energy choices within the complex web of connections, or nexus, between energy, water, and land.

  8. Molecular Insights into the Biosynthesis of the F420 Coenzyme

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Forouhar,F.; Abashidze, M.; Xu, H.; Grochowski, L.; Seetharaman, J.; Hussain, M.; Kuzin, A.; Chen, Y.; Zhou, W.; et al

    2008-01-01

    Coenzyme F420, a hydride carrier, is found in Archaea and some bacteria and has crucial roles in methanogenesis, antibiotic biosynthesis, DNA repair, and activation of antitubercular compounds. CofD, 2-phospho-l-lactate transferase, catalyzes the last step in the biosynthesis of F420-0 (F420 without polyglutamate), by transferring the lactyl phosphate moiety of lactyl(2)diphospho-(5')guanosine to 7,8-didemethyl-8-hydroxy-5-deazariboflavin ribitol (Fo). CofD is highly conserved among F420-producing organisms, and weak sequence homologs are also found in non-F420-producing organisms. This superfamily does not share any recognizable sequence conservation with other proteins. Here we report the first crystal structures of CofD, the free enzyme and two ternary complexes, with Fo and Pi or with Fo and GDP, from Methanosarcina mazei. The active site is located at the C-terminal end of a Rossmann fold core, and three large insertions make significant contributions to the active site and dimer formation. The observed binding modes of Fo and GDP can explain known biochemical properties of CofD and are also supported by our binding assays. The structures provide significant molecular insights into the biosynthesis of the F420 coenzyme. Large structural differences in the active site region of the non-F420-producing CofD homologs suggest that they catalyze a different biochemical reaction.

  9. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

  10. Analysis Insights, August 2015: Sustainable Transportation (Brochure), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Analysis & Projections Glossary › FAQS › Overview Projection Data Monthly Short-Term Forecasts to 2012 Annual Projections to 2035 International Projections Analysis & Projections Most Requested All Reports Models & Documentation AEO Working Groups Purpose of Working Groups The Annual Energy Outlook, prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), presents long-term projections of energy supply, demand, and prices, based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling

  11. Effects of the Financial Crisis on Photovoltaics: An Analysis of Changes in Market Forecasts from 2008 to 2009

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bartlett, J. E.; Margolis, R. M.; Jennings, C. E.

    2009-09-01

    To examine how the financial crisis has impacted expectations of photovoltaic production, demand and pricing over the next several years, we surveyed the market forecasts of industry analysts that had issued projections in 2008 and 2009. We find that the financial crisis has had a significant impact on the PV industry, primarily through increasing the cost and reducing the availability of investment into the sector. These effects have been more immediately experienced by PV installations than by production facilities, due to the different types and duration of investments, and thus PV demand has been reduced by a greater proportion than PV production. By reducing demand more than production, the financial crisis has accelerated previously expected PV overcapacity and resulting price declines.

  12. HOW TO DEAL WITH WASTE ACCEPTANCE UNCERTAINTY USING THE WASTE ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA FORECASTING AND ANALYSIS CAPABILITY SYSTEM (WACFACS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Redus, K. S.; Hampshire, G. J.; Patterson, J. E.; Perkins, A. B.

    2002-02-25

    The Waste Acceptance Criteria Forecasting and Analysis Capability System (WACFACS) is used to plan for, evaluate, and control the supply of approximately 1.8 million yd3 of low-level radioactive, TSCA, and RCRA hazardous wastes from over 60 environmental restoration projects between FY02 through FY10 to the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility (EMWMF). WACFACS is a validated decision support tool that propagates uncertainties inherent in site-related contaminant characterization data, disposition volumes during EMWMF operations, and project schedules to quantitatively determine the confidence that risk-based performance standards are met. Trade-offs in schedule, volumes of waste lots, and allowable concentrations of contaminants are performed to optimize project waste disposition, regulatory compliance, and disposal cell management.

  13. Enhancing Cloud Radiative Processes and Radiation Efficiency in the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iacono, Michael J.

    2015-03-09

    The objective of this research has been to evaluate and implement enhancements to the computational performance of the RRTMG radiative transfer option in the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Efficiency is as essential as accuracy for effective numerical weather prediction, and radiative transfer is a relatively time-consuming component of dynamical models, taking up to 30-50 percent of the total model simulation time. To address this concern, this research has implemented and tested a version of RRTMG that utilizes graphics processing unit (GPU) technology (hereinafter RRTMGPU) to greatly improve its computational performance; thereby permitting either more frequent simulation of radiative effects or other model enhancements. During the early stages of this project the development of RRTMGPU was completed at AER under separate NASA funding to accelerate the code for use in the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Goddard Earth Observing System GEOS-5 global model. It should be noted that this final report describes results related to the funded portion of the originally proposed work concerning the acceleration of RRTMG with GPUs in WRF. As a k-distribution model, RRTMG is especially well suited to this modification due to its relatively large internal pseudo-spectral (g-point) dimension that, when combined with the horizontal grid vector in the dynamical model, can take great advantage of the GPU capability. Thorough testing under several model configurations has been performed to ensure that RRTMGPU improves WRF model run time while having no significant impact on calculated radiative fluxes and heating rates or on dynamical model fields relative to the RRTMG radiation. The RRTMGPU codes have been provided to NCAR for possible application to the next public release of the WRF forecast model.

  14. A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: Application for performance prediction of a grid-connected PV plant at Trieste, Italy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mellit, Adel; Pavan, Alessandro Massi

    2010-05-15

    Forecasting of solar irradiance is in general significant for planning the operations of power plants which convert renewable energies into electricity. In particular, the possibility to predict the solar irradiance (up to 24 h or even more) can became - with reference to the Grid Connected Photovoltaic Plants (GCPV) - fundamental in making power dispatching plans and - with reference to stand alone and hybrid systems - also a useful reference for improving the control algorithms of charge controllers. In this paper, a practical method for solar irradiance forecast using artificial neural network (ANN) is presented. The proposed Multilayer Perceptron MLP-model makes it possible to forecast the solar irradiance on a base of 24 h using the present values of the mean daily solar irradiance and air temperature. An experimental database of solar irradiance and air temperature data (from July 1st 2008 to May 23rd 2009 and from November 23rd 2009 to January 24th 2010) has been used. The database has been collected in Trieste (latitude 45 40'N, longitude 13 46'E), Italy. In order to check the generalization capability of the MLP-forecaster, a K-fold cross-validation was carried out. The results indicate that the proposed model performs well, while the correlation coefficient is in the range 98-99% for sunny days and 94-96% for cloudy days. As an application, the comparison between the forecasted one and the energy produced by the GCPV plant installed on the rooftop of the municipality of Trieste shows the goodness of the proposed model. (author)

  15. Insights from twenty years of bacterial genome sequencing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Land, Miriam L; Hauser, Loren John; Jun, Se Ran; Nookaew, Intawat; Leuze, Michael Rex; Ahn, Tae-Hyuk; Karpinets, Tatiana V; Lund, Ole; Kora, Guruprasad H; Wassenaar, Trudy; Poudel, Suresh; Ussery, David W

    2015-01-01

    Since the first two complete bacterial genome sequences were published in 1995, the science of bacteria has dramatically changed. Using third-generation DNA sequencing, it is possible to completely sequence a bacterial genome in a few hours and identify some types of methylation sites along the genome as well. Sequencing of bacterial genome sequences is now a standard procedure, and the information from tens of thousands of bacterial genomes has had a major impact on our views of the bacterial world. In this review, we explore a series of questions to highlight some insights that comparative genomics has produced. To date, there are genome sequences available from 50 different bacterial phyla and 11 different archaeal phyla. However, the distribution is quite skewed towards a few phyla that contain model organisms. But the breadth is continuing to improve, with projects dedicated to filling in less characterized taxonomic groups. The clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)-Cas system provides bacteria with immunity against viruses, which outnumber bacteria by tenfold. How fast can we go? Second-generation sequencing has produced a large number of draft genomes (close to 90 % of bacterial genomes in GenBank are currently not complete); third-generation sequencing can potentially produce a finished genome in a few hours, and at the same time provide methlylation sites along the entire chromosome. The diversity of bacterial communities is extensive as is evident from the genome sequences available from 50 different bacterial phyla and 11 different archaeal phyla. Genome sequencing can help in classifying an organism, and in the case where multiple genomes of the same species are available, it is possible to calculate the pan- and core genomes; comparison of more than 2000 Escherichia coli genomes finds an E. coli core genome of about 3100 gene families and a total of about 89,000 different gene families. Why do we care about bacterial genome sequencing? There are many practical applications, such as genome-scale metabolic modeling, biosurveillance, bioforensics, and infectious disease epidemiology. In the near future, high-throughput sequencing of patient metagenomic samples could revolutionize medicine in terms of speed and accuracy of finding pathogens and knowing how to treat them.

  16. Building America Whole-House Solutions for New Homes: Insight Homes, Seaford, Delaware

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Case study of Insight Homes, who worked with the Building America research partner IBACOS to design HERS-49 homes with high-efficiency HVAC, ducts in insulated crawl spaces, raised heel trusses, dehumidifiers, and central manifold plumbing.

  17. Structure of the FANCI-FANCD2 Complex: Insights into the Fanconi...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Structure of the FANCI-FANCD2 Complex: Insights into the Fanconi Anemia DNA Repair Pathway Fanconi anemia is a cancer predisposition syndrome caused by defects in the repair ...

  18. Insights On The Thermal History Of The Valles Caldera, New Mexico...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Insights On The Thermal History Of The Valles Caldera, New Mexico- Evidence From Zircon Fission-Track Analysis Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library...

  19. Physics of Reliability: Evaluating Design Insights for Component Technologies in Solar

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The SunShot Physics of Reliability: Evaluating Design Insights for Component Technologies in Solar (PREDICTS) program is taking a physics- and chemistry-based approach to identifying failure modes...

  20. Promising Fuel Cycle Options for R&D - Results, Insights, and...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    The Fuel Cycle Options (FCO) campaign in the U.S. DOE Fuel Cycle Research & Development ... This paper reports on detailed insights and questions from the results of the study. The ...

  1. Microscopic insight into the origin of enhanced glass-forming ability of

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    metallic melts on micro-alloying (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Microscopic insight into the origin of enhanced glass-forming ability of metallic melts on micro-alloying Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Microscopic insight into the origin of enhanced glass-forming ability of metallic melts on micro-alloying Extensive efforts have been made to develop metallic-glasses with large casting diameter. Such efforts were hindered by the poor understanding of glass formation mechanisms

  2. Structural Insight into HIV-1 Restriction by MxB (Journal Article) |

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    SciTech Connect Insight into HIV-1 Restriction by MxB Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Structural Insight into HIV-1 Restriction by MxB Authors: Fribourgh, Jennifer L. ; Nguyen, Henry C. ; Matreyek, Kenneth A. ; Alvarez, Frances Joan D. ; Summers, Brady J. ; Dewdney, Tamaria G. ; Aiken, Christopher ; Zhang, Peijun ; Engelman, Alan ; Xiong, Yong [1] ; DFCI) [2] ; Pitt) [2] ; Vanderbilt-MED) [2] + Show Author Affiliations (Yale) ( Publication Date: 2015-02-19 OSTI Identifier: 1164180

  3. Structural and Mechanistic Insights into C-P Bond Hydrolysis by

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Phosphonoacetate Hydrolase (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Structural and Mechanistic Insights into C-P Bond Hydrolysis by Phosphonoacetate Hydrolase Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Structural and Mechanistic Insights into C-P Bond Hydrolysis by Phosphonoacetate Hydrolase Bacteria have evolved pathways to metabolize phosphonates as a nutrient source for phosphorus. In Sinorhizobium meliloti 1021, 2-aminoethylphosphonate is catabolized to phosphonoacetate, which is converted to

  4. A Minnesota Blizzard Provides Insight into Utility-Scale Wind Turbine Wakes

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    | Department of Energy A Minnesota Blizzard Provides Insight into Utility-Scale Wind Turbine Wakes A Minnesota Blizzard Provides Insight into Utility-Scale Wind Turbine Wakes September 12, 2014 - 11:22am Addthis A blurry, black and white photo of wind turbines in a blizzard. Jiarong Hong can hardly wait for Minnesota's harsh winters to return. That's because the University of Minnesota's mechanical engineering assistant professor and St. Anthony Falls Laboratory researcher uses blizzard

  5. New Insights into the RNA-Binding and E3 Ubiquitin Ligase Activities of

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Roquins (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect New Insights into the RNA-Binding and E3 Ubiquitin Ligase Activities of Roquins Citation Details In-Document Search Title: New Insights into the RNA-Binding and E3 Ubiquitin Ligase Activities of Roquins Authors: Zhang, Qi ; Fan, Lixin ; Hou, Feng ; Dong, Aiping ; Wang, Yun-Xing ; Tong, Yufeng [1] ; NIH) [2] ; Leidos) [2] + Show Author Affiliations Toronto ( Publication Date: 2016-02-05 OSTI Identifier: 1229898 Resource Type: Journal Article

  6. New insights from in-situ electron microscopy into capacity loss mechanisms

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    in Li-ion batteries with Al anodes. (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect New insights from in-situ electron microscopy into capacity loss mechanisms in Li-ion batteries with Al anodes. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: New insights from in-situ electron microscopy into capacity loss mechanisms in Li-ion batteries with Al anodes. Abstract not provided. Authors: Talin, Albert Alec ; Bartelt, Norman Charles ; Leite, Marina ; Ruzmetov, Dmitry ; Zhipeng, Li ; Bendersky, Leonid Publication

  7. Promising Fuel Cycle Options for R&D - Results, Insights, and Future

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Directions (Conference) | SciTech Connect Conference: Promising Fuel Cycle Options for R&D - Results, Insights, and Future Directions Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Promising Fuel Cycle Options for R&D - Results, Insights, and Future Directions The Fuel Cycle Options (FCO) campaign in the U.S. DOE Fuel Cycle Research & Development Program conducted a detailed evaluation and screening of nuclear fuel cycles. The process for this study was described at the 2014 ICAPP

  8. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWEFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070 - Document number changed to HNF-0918 at revision 1 - 1/7/97

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-10-03

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed at Hanford`s Solid Waste (SW) Program from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the SW Program; program- level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and Li comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. The focus of this web site is on low- level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this site is reporting data current as of 9/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program`s life cycle.

  9. Coal supply/demand, 1980 to 2000. Task 3. Resource applications industrialization system data base. Final review draft. [USA; forecasting 1980 to 2000; sector and regional analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fournier, W.M.; Hasson, V.

    1980-10-10

    This report is a compilation of data and forecasts resulting from an analysis of the coal market and the factors influencing supply and demand. The analyses performed for the forecasts were made on an end-use-sector basis. The sectors analyzed are electric utility, industry demand for steam coal, industry demand for metallurgical coal, residential/commercial, coal demand for synfuel production, and exports. The purpose is to provide coal production and consumption forecasts that can be used to perform detailed, railroad company-specific coal transportation analyses. To make the data applicable for the subsequent transportation analyses, the forecasts have been made for each end-use sector on a regional basis. The supply regions are: Appalachia, East Interior, West Interior and Gulf, Northern Great Plains, and Mountain. The demand regions are the same as the nine Census Bureau regions. Coal production and consumption in the United States are projected to increase dramatically in the next 20 years due to increasing requirements for energy and the unavailability of other sources of energy to supply a substantial portion of this increase. Coal comprises 85 percent of the US recoverable fossil energy reserves and could be mined to supply the increasing energy demands of the US. The NTPSC study found that the additional traffic demands by 1985 may be met by the railways by the way of improved signalization, shorter block sections, centralized traffic control, and other modernization methods without providing for heavy line capacity works. But by 2000 the incremental traffic on some of the major corridors was projected to increase very significantly and is likely to call for special line capacity works involving heavy investment.

  10. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 5: The DOETRAN user`s manual; The DOE-2/DBEDT DSM forecasting model interface

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The DOETRAN model is a DSM database manager, developed to act as an intermediary between the whole building energy simulation model, DOE-2, and the DBEDT DSM Forecasting Model. DOETRAN accepts output data from DOE-2 and TRANslates that into the format required by the forecasting model. DOETRAN operates in the Windows environment and was developed using the relational database management software, Paradox 5.0 for Windows. It is not necessary to have any knowledge of Paradox to use DOETRAN. DOETRAN utilizes the powerful database manager capabilities of Paradox through a series of customized user-friendly windows displaying buttons and menus with simple and clear functions. The DOETRAN model performs three basic functions, with an optional fourth. The first function is to configure the user`s computer for DOETRAN. The second function is to import DOE-2 files with energy and loadshape data for each building type. The third main function is to then process the data into the forecasting model format. As DOETRAN processes the DOE-2 data, graphs of the total electric monthly impacts for each DSM measure appear, providing the user with a visual means of inspecting DOE-2 data, as well as following program execution. DOETRAN provides three tables for each building type for the forecasting model, one for electric measures, gas measures, and basecases. The optional fourth function provided by DOETRAN is to view graphs of total electric annual impacts by measure. This last option allows a comparative view of how one measure rates against another. A section in this manual is devoted to each of the four functions mentioned above, as well as computer requirements and exiting DOETRAN.

  11. Simulations of Clouds and Sensitivity Study by Weather Research and Forecast Model for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Case 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

    2005-03-18

    One of the large errors in general circulation models (GCMs) cloud simulations is from the mid-latitude, synoptic-scale frontal cloud systems. Now, with the availability of the cloud observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) 2000 cloud Intensive Operational Period (IOP) and other observational datasets, the community is able to document the model biases in comparison with the observations and make progress in development of better cloud schemes in models. Xie et al. (2004) documented the errors in midlatitude frontal cloud simulations for ARM Case 4 by single-column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs). According to them, the errors in the model simulated cloud field might be caused by following reasons: (1) lacking of sub-grid scale variability; (2) lacking of organized mesoscale cyclonic advection of hydrometeors behind a moving cyclone which may play important role to generate the clouds there. Mesoscale model, however, can be used to better under stand these controls on the subgrid variability of clouds. Few studies have focused on applying mesoscale models to the forecasting of cloud properties. Weaver et al. (2004) used a mesoscale model RAMS to study the frontal clouds for ARM Case 4 and documented the dynamical controls on the sub-GCM-grid-scale cloud variability.

  12. Final Report, 2011-2014. Forecasting Carbon Storage as Eastern Forests Age. Joining Experimental and Modeling Approaches at the UMBS AmeriFlux Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis, Peter; Bohrer, Gil; Gough, Christopher; Nadelhoffer, Knute

    2015-03-12

    At the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) AmeriFlux sites (US-UMB and US-UMd), long-term C cycling measurements and a novel ecosystem-scale experiment are revealing physical, biological, and ecological mechanisms driving long-term trajectories of C cycling, providing new data for improving modeling forecasts of C storage in eastern forests. Our findings provide support for previously untested hypotheses that stand-level structural and biological properties constrain long-term trajectories of C storage, and that remotely sensed canopy structural parameters can substantially improve model forecasts of forest C storage. Through the Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET), we are directly testing the hypothesis that forest C storage will increase due to increasing structural and biological complexity of the emerging tree communities. Support from this project, 2011-2014, enabled us to incorporate novel physical and ecological mechanisms into ecological, meteorological, and hydrological models to improve forecasts of future forest C storage in response to disturbance, succession, and current and long-term climate variation

  13. Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1994--FY 2001. Environmental Restoration Program, September 1993 Revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    This Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project. FY 1994--FY 2001 is the third in a series of documents that report current estimates of the waste volumes expected to be generated as a result of Environmental Restoration activities at Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office (DOE-ORO), sites. Considered in the scope of this document are volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of remedial action and decontamination and decommissioning activities taking place at these sites. Sites contributing to the total estimates make up the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Y-12 Plant, the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, and the off-site contaminated areas adjacent to the Oak Ridge facilities (collectively referred to as the Oak Ridge Reservation Off-Site area). Estimates are available for the entire fife of all waste generating activities. This document summarizes waste estimates forecasted for the 8-year period of FY 1994-FY 2001. Updates with varying degrees of change are expected throughout the refinement of restoration strategies currently in progress at each of the sites. Waste forecast data are relatively fluid, and this document represents remediation plans only as reported through September 1993.

  14. Insight in the Brain: The Cognitive and Neural Bases of Eureka Moments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beeman, Mark

    2013-04-03

    Where do new ideas come from? Although all new ideas build on old, this can happen in different ways. Some new ideas, or solutions to old problems, are achieved through methodical, analytical processing. Other new ideas come about in a sudden burst of insight, often based on or generating a restructured view of the problem itself. Behavioral, brain imaging, and eye-tracking results all reveal distinct cortical networks contributing to insight solving, as contrasted with analytic solving. Consistently, the way in which people solve problems appears to relate to the way they engage attention and cognitive control: across time, across moods, and across individuals. Insight is favored when people can disengage from strong stimuli and associations - figuratively and literally looking "outside the box" of the problem to suddenly solve with a new idea.

  15. Insights from Smart Meters: The Potential for Peak Hour Savings from

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Behavior-Based Programs | Department of Energy The Potential for Peak Hour Savings from Behavior-Based Programs Insights from Smart Meters: The Potential for Peak Hour Savings from Behavior-Based Programs This report focuses on one example of the value that analysis of this data can provide: insights into whether BB efficiency programs have the potential to provide peak-hour energy savings. This is important because there is increasing interest in using BB programs as a stand-alone peak

  16. Structural insight into the regulation of MOF in the male-specific lethal

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    complex and the non-specific lethal complex (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Structural insight into the regulation of MOF in the male-specific lethal complex and the non-specific lethal complex Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Structural insight into the regulation of MOF in the male-specific lethal complex and the non-specific lethal complex Authors: Huang, Jing ; Wan, Bingbing ; Wu, Lipeng ; Yang, Yuting ; Dou, Yali ; Lei, Ming [1] + Show Author Affiliations (Michigan-Med)

  17. Structure of the FANCI-FANCD2 Complex: Insights into the Fanconi Anemia DNA

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Repair Pathway (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Structure of the FANCI-FANCD2 Complex: Insights into the Fanconi Anemia DNA Repair Pathway Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Structure of the FANCI-FANCD2 Complex: Insights into the Fanconi Anemia DNA Repair Pathway Fanconi anemia is a cancer predisposition syndrome caused by defects in the repair of DNA interstrand cross-links (ICLs). Central to this pathway is the Fanconi anemia

  18. New insights from in-situ electron microscopy into capacity loss mechanisms

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    in all-solid-state Li-ion batteries with Al anodes. (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect New insights from in-situ electron microscopy into capacity loss mechanisms in all-solid-state Li-ion batteries with Al anodes. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: New insights from in-situ electron microscopy into capacity loss mechanisms in all-solid-state Li-ion batteries with Al anodes. Abstract not provided. Authors: Talin, Albert Alec ; Leite, Marina ; Ruzmetov, Dmitry ; Li, Zhipeng ;

  19. Promising Fuel Cycle Options for R&D - Results, Insights, and Future

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Directions (Conference) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Conference: Promising Fuel Cycle Options for R&D - Results, Insights, and Future Directions Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Promising Fuel Cycle Options for R&D - Results, Insights, and Future Directions The Fuel Cycle Options (FCO) campaign in the U.S. DOE Fuel Cycle Research & Development Program conducted a detailed evaluation and screening of nuclear fuel cycles. The process for this study was

  20. Study Builds Knowledge of Nuclear Waste Glass, Provides Insight to Facility

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Design | Department of Energy Study Builds Knowledge of Nuclear Waste Glass, Provides Insight to Facility Design Study Builds Knowledge of Nuclear Waste Glass, Provides Insight to Facility Design April 14, 2016 - 12:40pm Addthis Simulated low-activity waste is cooled in a prototypic steel container as part of ORP-sponsored testing at a Columbia, Md., facility in September 2003. Simulated low-activity waste is cooled in a prototypic steel container as part of ORP-sponsored testing at a

  1. Summary of available waste forecast data for the Environmental Restoration Program at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-08-01

    This report identifies patterns of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Environmental Restoration (ER) waste generation that are predicted by the current ER Waste Generation Forecast data base. It compares the waste volumes to be generated with the waste management capabilities of current and proposed treatment, storage, or disposal (TSD) facilities. The scope of this report is limited to wastes generated during activities funded by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environmental Restoration (EM-40) and excludes wastes from the decontamination and decommissioning of facilities. Significant quantities of these wastes are expected to be generated during ER activities. This report has been developed as a management tool supporting communication and coordination of waste management activities at ORNL. It summarizes the available data for waste that will be generated as a result of remediation activities under the direction of the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations Office and identifies areas requiring continued waste management planning and coordination. Based on the available data, it is evident that most remedial action wastes leaving the area of contamination can be managed adequately with existing and planned ORR waste management facilities if attention is given to waste generation scheduling and the physical limitations of particular TSD facilities. Limited use of off-site commercial TSD facilities is anticipated, provided the affected waste streams can be shown to satisfy the requirements of the performance objective for certification of non-radioactive hazardous waste and the waste acceptance criteria of the off-site facilities. Ongoing waste characterization will be required to determine the most appropriate TSD facility for each waste stream.

  2. INSIGHT On Transforming Our Global Energy Economy, 2015 Annual Report (Brochure)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2015-03-01

    From its inception, JISEA has provided critical clarity and insights to inform decision making through leading-edge interdisciplinary research and objective, credible, cross-functional analysis. JISEA, drawing on the unique capabilities of its founding institutions and research affiliates around the world, continues to inform the landscape of transformation.

  3. Best Practices Case Study: Insight Homes - Seaford, DE, Deep Creek, DE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2011-09-01

    Case Study of Insight Homes who built 36 identical houses, three at a time, with increasing energy-efficiency measures in each generation until they arrived at the most cost-effective mix. Advanced framing and high-efficiency HVAC located in a sealed, insulated crawlspace helped them achieve a HERS scores of 49 to 56 and average utility bills of $93 per year.

  4. Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hernandez, Jacquelynne; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Jennings, Barbara Joan; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Brown, Theresa Jean; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2010-09-01

    Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subset of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.

  5. Energy Production and Trade: An Overview of Some Macroeconomic...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    ... Evidence and theories of current account determination The evolution of beliefs on the importance of CA balances has been supplemented by many empirical studies on the most ...

  6. Macroeconomic Activity Module of the National Energy Modeling...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    of employment by industry is industry output. Both current and lagged output values enter in the employment specification, reflecting the tendency for hiring to lag output...

  7. The use of real-time off-site observations as a methodology for increasing forecast skill in prediction of large wind power ramps one or more hours ahead of their impact on a wind plant.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martin Wilde, Principal Investigator

    2012-12-31

    ABSTRACT Application of Real-Time Offsite Measurements in Improved Short-Term Wind Ramp Prediction Skill Improved forecasting performance immediately preceding wind ramp events is of preeminent concern to most wind energy companies, system operators, and balancing authorities. The value of near real-time hub height-level wind data and more general meteorological measurements to short-term wind power forecasting is well understood. For some sites, access to onsite measured wind data - even historical - can reduce forecast error in the short-range to medium-range horizons by as much as 50%. Unfortunately, valuable free-stream wind measurements at tall tower are not typically available at most wind plants, thereby forcing wind forecasters to rely upon wind measurements below hub height and/or turbine nacelle anemometry. Free-stream measurements can be appropriately scaled to hub-height levels, using existing empirically-derived relationships that account for surface roughness and turbulence. But there is large uncertainty in these relationships for a given time of day and state of the boundary layer. Alternatively, forecasts can rely entirely on turbine anemometry measurements, though such measurements are themselves subject to wake effects that are not stationary. The void in free-stream hub-height level measurements of wind can be filled by remote sensing (e.g., sodar, lidar, and radar). However, the expense of such equipment may not be sustainable. There is a growing market for traditional anemometry on tall tower networks, maintained by third parties to the forecasting process (i.e., independent of forecasters and the forecast users). This study examines the value of offsite tall-tower data from the WINDataNOW Technology network for short-horizon wind power predictions at a wind farm in northern Montana. The presentation shall describe successful physical and statistical techniques for its application and the practicality of its application in an operational setting. It shall be demonstrated that when used properly, the real-time offsite measurements materially improve wind ramp capture and prediction statistics, when compared to traditional wind forecasting techniques and to a simple persistence model.

  8. Analysis Insights, August 2015: Sustainable Transportation; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2015-08-01

    NREL Analysis Insights mines our body of analysis work to synthesize topical insights and key findings. In this issue, we examine transportation systems, alternative fuels, and implications of increasing electrification of transit. Moving people and goods from point A to B has never been easier, but our current transportation systems also take a toll on our environment. Transportation currently accounts for 71% of total U.S. petroleum use and 33% of the nation’s total carbon emissions. With new technology, can we make our transportation system cleaner and more cost effective? NREL is applying its analytical expertise and imagination to do just that. Solutions start with systems thinking. Connecting the dots between physical components - vehicles, fueling stations, and highways - and institutional components - traffic laws, regulations, and vehicle standards - helps illuminate solutions that address the needs of the transportation system's many stakeholders.

  9. The Structure of Ions near Carbon Nanotubes: New Insights into Carbon

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Surface Chemistry and Implications for Water Purification The Structure of Ions near Carbon Nanotubes: New Insights into Carbon Surface Chemistry and Implications for Water Purification Carbon-based materials have long been used for a variety of water purification operations. Researchers have investigated carbon materials as adsorbents for decades, but only limited information on the precise details of aqueous ion interactions with carbon surfaces has been uncovered. It is empirically known

  10. Physics of Reliability: Evaluating Design Insights for Component Technologies in Solar 2 (PREDICTS 2)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The SunShot Physics of Reliability: Evaluating Design Insights for Component Technologies in Solar 2 (PREDICTS 2) program funds research in physics, chemistry, and advanced data analysis to gain a better understanding of how and why solar PV modules degrade. The resulting improved product tests – either outdoors after installation or during the manufacturing process – will enable evaluation of module reliability and improved prediction of performance over time.

  11. MMCR Spectra-based Hydrometeor Phase Classifier: Evaluation & New Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    MMCR Spectra-based Hydrometeor Phase Classifier: Evaluation & New Insights Edward Luke 1 , Pavlos Kollias 1 , Matthew Shupe 2 1. Brookhaven National Laboratory 2. CIRES/NOAA/ETL Predicting HSRL depolarization with MMCR classifier Actual Depolarization Predicted Depolarization How accurately can combined HSRL, MMCR, MWR, and radiosonde generate the "golden" phase retrievals needed to train an MMCR-only classifier? For further discussion see Shupe, 2007. How well can the MMCR-only

  12. Hunting for Big Bang neutrinos that could provide fresh insight on the

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    origin of the universe | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab Hunting for Big Bang neutrinos that could provide fresh insight on the origin of the universe Like "detecting a heartbeat in an arena" full of people By John Greenwald March 11, 2016 Tweet Widget Google Plus One Share on Facebook Princeton physicist Chris Tully in the PTOLEMY laboratory. Behind him are powerful superconducting magnets on either side of the vacuum chamber. (Photo by Elle Starkman/Office of Communications)

  13. Managing aging in nuclear power plants: Insights from NRC maintenance team inspection reports

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fresco, A.; Subudhi, M.; Gunther, W.; Grove, E.; Taylor, J.

    1993-12-01

    A plant`s maintenance program is the principal vehicle through which age-related degradation is managed. From 1988 to 1991, the NRC evaluated the maintenance program of every nuclear power plant in the United States. Forty-four out of a total of 67 of the reports issued on these in-depth team inspections were reviewed for insights into the strengths and weaknesses of the programs as related to the need to understand and manage the effects of aging on nuclear plant systems, structures, and components. Relevant information was extracted from these inspection reports and sorted into several categories, including Specific Aging Insights, Preventive Maintenance, Predictive Maintenance and Condition Monitoring, Post Maintenance Testing, Failure Trending, Root Cause Analysis and Usage of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in the Maintenance Process. Specific examples of inspection and monitoring techniques successfully used by utilities to detect degradation due to aging have been identified. The information also was sorted according to systems and components, including: Auxiliary Feedwater, Main Feedwater, High Pressure Injection for both BWRs and PWRs, Service Water, Instrument Air, and Emergency Diesel Generator Air Start Systems, and Emergency Diesel Generators Air Start Systems, emergency diesel generators, electrical components such as switchgear, breakers, relays, and motor control centers, motor operated valves and check valves. This information was compared to insights gained from the Nuclear Plant Aging Research (NPAR) Program. Attributes of plant maintenance programs where the NRC inspectors felt that improvement was needed to properly address the aging issue also are discussed.

  14. Development of an Immersed Boundary Method to Resolve Complex Terrain in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lunquist, K A; Chow, F K; Lundquist, J K; Mirocha, J D

    2007-09-04

    Flow and dispersion processes in urban areas are profoundly influenced by the presence of buildings which divert mean flow, affect surface heating and cooling, and alter the structure of turbulence in the lower atmosphere. Accurate prediction of velocity, temperature, and turbulent kinetic energy fields are necessary for determining the transport and dispersion of scalars. Correct predictions of scalar concentrations are vital in densely populated urban areas where they are used to aid in emergency response planning for accidental or intentional releases of hazardous substances. Traditionally, urban flow simulations have been performed by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes which can accommodate the geometric complexity inherent to urban landscapes. In these types of models the grid is aligned with the solid boundaries, and the boundary conditions are applied to the computational nodes coincident with the surface. If the CFD code uses a structured curvilinear mesh, then time-consuming manual manipulation is needed to ensure that the mesh conforms to the solid boundaries while minimizing skewness. If the CFD code uses an unstructured grid, then the solver cannot be optimized for the underlying data structure which takes an irregular form. Unstructured solvers are therefore often slower and more memory intensive than their structured counterparts. Additionally, urban-scale CFD models are often forced at lateral boundaries with idealized flow, neglecting dynamic forcing due to synoptic scale weather patterns. These CFD codes solve the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations and include limited options for representing atmospheric processes such as surface fluxes and moisture. Traditional CFD codes therefore posses several drawbacks, due to the expense of either creating the grid or solving the resulting algebraic system of equations, and due to the idealized boundary conditions and the lack of full atmospheric physics. Meso-scale atmospheric boundary layer simulations, on the other hand, are performed by numerical weather prediction (NWP) codes, which cannot handle the geometry of the urban landscape, but do provide a more complete representation of atmospheric physics. NWP codes typically use structured grids with terrain-following vertical coordinates, include a full suite of atmospheric physics parameterizations, and allow for dynamic synoptic scale lateral forcing through grid nesting. Terrain following grids are unsuitable for urban terrain, as steep terrain gradients cause extreme distortion of the computational cells. In this work, we introduce and develop an immersed boundary method (IBM) to allow the favorable properties of a numerical weather prediction code to be combined with the ability to handle complex terrain. IBM uses a non-conforming structured grid, and allows solid boundaries to pass through the computational cells. As the terrain passes through the mesh in an arbitrary manner, the main goal of the IBM is to apply the boundary condition on the interior of the domain as accurately as possible. With the implementation of the IBM, numerical weather prediction codes can be used to explicitly resolve urban terrain. Heterogeneous urban domains using the IBM can be nested into larger mesoscale domains using a terrain-following coordinate. The larger mesoscale domain provides lateral boundary conditions to the urban domain with the correct forcing, allowing seamless integration between mesoscale and urban scale models. Further discussion of the scope of this project is given by Lundquist et al. [2007]. The current paper describes the implementation of an IBM into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open source numerical weather prediction code. The WRF model solves the non-hydrostatic compressible Navier-Stokes equations, and employs an isobaric terrain-following vertical coordinate. Many types of IB methods have been developed by researchers; a comprehensive review can be found in Mittal and Iaccarino [2005]. To the authors knowledge, this is the first IBM approach that is able to

  15. Insights from Smart Meters: The Potential for Peak-Hour Savings from Behavior-Based Programs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Todd, Annika; Perry, Michael; Smith, Brian; Sullivan, Michael; Cappers, Peter; Goldman, Charles

    2014-03-25

    The rollout of smart meters in the last several years has opened up new forms of previously unavailable energy data. Many utilities are now able in real-time to capture granular, household level interval usage data at very high-frequency levels for a large proportion of their residential and small commercial customer population. This can be linked to other time and locationspecific information, providing vast, constantly growing streams of rich data (sometimes referred to by the recently popular buzz word, “big data”). Within the energy industry there is increasing interest in tapping into the opportunities that these data can provide. What can we do with all of these data? The richness and granularity of these data enable many types of creative and cutting-edge analytics. Technically sophisticated and rigorous statistical techniques can be used to pull interesting insights out of this highfrequency, human-focused data. We at LBNL are calling this “behavior analytics”. This kind of analytics has the potential to provide tremendous value to a wide range of energy programs. For example, highly disaggregated and heterogeneous information about actual energy use would allow energy efficiency (EE) and/or demand response (DR) program implementers to target specific programs to specific households; would enable evaluation, measurement and verification (EM&V) of energy efficiency programs to be performed on a much shorter time horizon than was previously possible; and would provide better insights in to the energy and peak hour savings associated with specifics types of EE and DR programs (e.g., behavior-based (BB) programs). In this series, “Insights from Smart Meters”, we will present concrete, illustrative examples of the type of value that insights from behavior analytics of these data can provide (as well as pointing out its limitations). We will supply several types of key findings, including: • Novel results, which answer questions the industry previously was unable to answer; • Proof-of-concept analytics tools that can be adapted and used by others; and • Guidelines and protocols that summarize analytical best practices. This report focuses on one example of the kind of value that analysis of this data can provide: insights into whether behavior-based (BB) efficiency programs have the potential to provide peak-hour energy savings.

  16. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID tomore » build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.« less

  17. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.

  18. Hunting for Big Bang neutrinos that could provide fresh insight on the

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    origin of the universe | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab Hunting for Big Bang neutrinos that could provide fresh insight on the origin of the universe Like "detecting a heartbeat in an arena" full of people By John Greenwald March 14, 2016 Tweet Widget Google Plus One Share on Facebook Chris Tully in the PTOLEMY laboratory. Behind him are powerful superconducting magnets on either side of the vacuum chamber. (Photo by Elle Starkman/Office of Communications) Chris Tully in the PTOLEMY

  19. New Insights Into a Functioning Mg-ion Cathode-Chevrel Phase Mo6S8 -

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Joint Center for Energy Storage Research April 24, 2014, Research Highlights New Insights Into a Functioning Mg-ion Cathode-Chevrel Phase Mo6S8 An isosurface of the charge density difference between pristine Mo6S8 and the inclusion of a single Mg2+ intercalant (and accompanying 2 electrons). Colors: Yellow (cyan) indicates an increase (decrease) in electron density, the Mg atom is shown in orange, S yellow, Mo purple. Scientific Achievement First-principles analysis of the screening of Mg2+

  20. Insights on activation enthalpy for non-Schmid slip in body-centered cubic metals

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hale, Lucas M.; Lim, Hojun; Zimmerman, Jonathan A.; Battaile, Corbett C.; Weinberger, Christopher R.

    2014-12-18

    We use insights gained from atomistic simulation to develop an activation enthalpy model for dislocation slip in body-centered cubic iron. Furthermore, using a classical potential that predicts dislocation core stabilities consistent with ab initio predictions, we quantify the non-Schmid stress-dependent effects of slip. The kink-pair activation enthalpy is evaluated and a model is identified as a function of the general stress state. Thus, our model enlarges the applicability of the classic Kocks activation enthalpy model to materials with non-Schmid behavior.

  1. Supramolecular polymerization of a prebiotic nucleoside provides insights into the creation of sequence-controlled polymers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Wang, Jun; Bonnesen, Peter V; Rangel, E.; Vallejo, E.; Sanchez-Castillo, Ariadna; Cleaves, II, H. James; Baddorf, Arthur P; Sumpter, Bobby G; Pan, Minghu; Maksymovych, Petro; et al

    2016-01-04

    The self-assembly of a nucleoside on Au(111) was studied to ascertain whether polymerization on well-defined substrates constitutes a promising approach for making sequence-controlled polymers. Scanning tunneling microscopy and density functional theory were used to investigate the self-assembly on Au(111) of (RS)-N9-(2,3-dihydroxypropyl)adenine (DHPA), a plausibly prebiotic nucleoside analog of adenosine. It is found that DHPA molecules self-assemble into a hydrogen-bonded polymer that grows almost exclusively along the herringbone reconstruction pattern, has a two component sequence that is repeated over hundreds of nanometers, and is erasable with electron-induced excitation. Although the sequence is simple, more complicated ones are envisioned if two ormore » more nucleoside types are combined. Because polymerization occurs on a substrate in a dry environment, the success of each combination can be gauged with high-resolution imaging and accurate modeling techniques. The resulting characteristics make nucleoside self-assembly on a substrate an attractive approach for designing sequence-controlled polymers. Moreover, by choosing plausibly prebiotic nucleosides, insights may be provided into how nature created the first sequence-controlled polymers capable of storing information. Such insights, in turn, can inspire new ways of synthesizing sequence-controlled polymers.« less

  2. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, second quarter 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-04-01

    The Energy Information Administration prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections. The forecasts in this issue cover the second quarter of 1996 through the fourth quarter of 1997. Changes to macroeconomic measures by the Bureau of Economic Analysis have been incorporated into the STIFS model used.

  3. Development of Integrated Motor Assist Hybrid System: Development of the 'Insight', a Personal Hybrid Coupe

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kaoru Aoki; Shigetaka Kuroda; Shigemasa Kajiwara; Hiromitsu Sato; Yoshio Yamamoto

    2000-06-19

    This paper presents the technical approach used to design and develop the powerplant for the Honda Insight, a new motor assist hybrid vehicle with an overall development objective of just half the fuel consumption of the current Civic over a wide range of driving conditions. Fuel consumption of 35km/L (Japanese 10-15 mode), and 3.4L/100km (98/69/EC) was realized. To achieve this, a new Integrated Motor Assist (IMA) hybrid power plant system was developed, incorporating many new technologies for packaging and integrating the motor assist system and for improving engine thermal efficiency. This was developed in combination with a new lightweight aluminum body with low aerodynamic resistance. Environmental performance goals also included the simultaneous achievement of low emissions (half the Japanese year 2000 standards, and half the EU2000 standards), high efficiency, and recyclability. Full consideration was also given to key consumer attributes, including crash safety performance, handling, and driving performance.

  4. Mobilizing Public Markets to Finance Renewable Energy Projects: Insights from Expert Stakeholders

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schwabe, P.; Mendelsohn, M.; Mormann, F.; Arent, D. J.

    2012-06-01

    Financing renewable energy projects in the United States can be a complex process. Most equity investment in new renewable power production facilities is supported by tax credits and accelerated depreciation benefits, and is constrained by the pool of potential investors that can fully use these tax benefits and are willing to engage in complex financial structures. For debt financing, non-government lending has largely been provided by foreign banks that may be under future lending constraints due to economic and regulatory conditions. To discuss renewable energy financing challenges and to identify new sources of capital to the U.S. market, two roundtable discussions were held with renewable energy and financing experts in April 2012. This report summarizes the key messages of those discussions and is designed to provide insights to the U.S. market and inform the international conversation on renewable energy financing innovations.

  5. Observations and insights into Pb-assisted stress corrosion cracking of alloy 600 steam generator tubes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.; Bruemmer, Stephen M.

    2005-08-15

    Pb-assisted stress-corrosion cracking (PbSCC) of Alloy 600 steam-generator tubing in high-temperature-water service and laboratory tests were studied by analytical transmission electron microscopy of cross-sectioned samples. Examinations of pulled tubes from many pressurized water reactors revealed lead in cracks from 11 of 17 samples. Comparisons of the degraded intergranular structures with ones produced in simple laboratory tests with PbO in near-neutral AVT water showed that the PbSCC characteristics in service tubing could be reproduced without complex chemistries and heat-flow conditions that can occur during plant operation. Observations of intergranular and transgranular cracks promoted by Pb in the test samples also provided new insights into the mechanisms of PbSCC in mill-annealed and thermally treated Alloy 600.

  6. 2010 Honda Insight VIN 1748 Hybrid Electric Vehicle Battery Test Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tyler Gray; Matthew Shirk

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity Program consists of vehicle, battery, and infrastructure testing on advanced technology related to transportation. The activity includes tests on hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), including testing the HEV batteries when both the vehicles and batteries are new and at the conclusion of 160,000 miles of on road fleet testing. This report documents battery testing performed for the 2010 Honda Insight HEV (VIN: JHMZE2H59AS011748). Battery testing was performed by the Electric Transportation Engineering Corporation dba ECOtality North America. The Idaho National Laboratory and ECOtality North America collaborate on the Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity for the Vehicle Technologies Program of the U.S. Department of Energy.

  7. 2010 Honda Insight VIN 0141 Hybrid Electric Vehicle Battery Test Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tyler Gray

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity Program consists of vehicle, battery, and infrastructure testing on advanced technology related to transportation. The activity includes tests on hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), including testing the HEV batteries when both the vehicles and batteries are new and at the conclusion of 160,000 miles of on road fleet testing. This report documents battery testing performed for the 2010 Honda Insight HEV (VIN: JHMZE2H78AS010141). Battery testing was performed by the Electric Transportation Engineering Corporation dba ECOtality North America. The Idaho National Laboratory and ECOtality North America collaborate on the Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity for the Vehicle Technologies Program of the U.S. Department of Energy.

  8. Hawaii Energy Strategy: Program guide. [Contains special sections on analytical energy forecasting, renewable energy resource assessment, demand-side energy management, energy vulnerability assessment, and energy strategy integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-09-01

    The Hawaii Energy Strategy program, or HES, is a set of seven projects which will produce an integrated energy strategy for the State of Hawaii. It will include a comprehensive energy vulnerability assessment with recommended courses of action to decrease Hawaii's energy vulnerability and to better prepare for an effective response to any energy emergency or supply disruption. The seven projects are designed to increase understanding of Hawaii's energy situation and to produce recommendations to achieve the State energy objectives of: Dependable, efficient, and economical state-wide energy systems capable of supporting the needs of the people, and increased energy self-sufficiency. The seven projects under the Hawaii Energy Strategy program include: Project 1: Develop Analytical Energy Forecasting Model for the State of Hawaii. Project 2: Fossil Energy Review and Analysis. Project 3: Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Development Program. Project 4: Demand-Side Management Program. Project 5: Transportation Energy Strategy. Project 6: Energy Vulnerability Assessment Report and Contingency Planning. Project 7: Energy Strategy Integration and Evaluation System.

  9. Implementation and assessment of turbine wake models in the Weather Research and Forecasting model for both mesoscale and large-eddy simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Singer, M; Mirocha, J; Lundquist, J; Cleve, J

    2010-03-03

    Flow dynamics in large wind projects are influenced by the turbines located within. The turbine wakes, regions characterized by lower wind speeds and higher levels of turbulence than the surrounding free stream flow, can extend several rotor diameters downstream, and may meander and widen with increasing distance from the turbine. Turbine wakes can also reduce the power generated by downstream turbines and accelerate fatigue and damage to turbine components. An improved understanding of wake formation and transport within wind parks is essential for maximizing power output and increasing turbine lifespan. Moreover, the influence of wakes from large wind projects on neighboring wind farms, agricultural activities, and local climate are all areas of concern that can likewise be addressed by wake modeling. This work describes the formulation and application of an actuator disk model for studying flow dynamics of both individual turbines and arrays of turbines within wind projects. The actuator disk model is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open-source atmospheric simulation code applicable to a wide range of scales, from mesoscale to large-eddy simulation. Preliminary results demonstrate the applicability of the actuator disk model within WRF to a moderately high-resolution large-eddy simulation study of a small array of turbines.

  10. Atomistic Insights Into the Oriented Attachment of Tunnel-Based Oxide Nanostructures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yuan, Yifei; Wood, Stephen M; He, Kun; Yao, Wentao; Tompsett, David; Lu, Jun; Nie, Anmin; Islam, M. Saiful; Shahbazian-Yassar, Reza

    2016-01-01

    Controlled synthesis of nanomaterials is one of the grand challenges facing materials scientists. In particular, how tunnel-based nanomaterials aggregate during synthesis while maintaining their well-aligned tunneled structure is not fully understood. Here, we describe the atomistic mechanism of oriented attachment (OA) during solution synthesis of tunneled α-MnO2 nanowires based on a combination of in situ liquid cell transmission electron microscopy (TEM), aberration-corrected scanning TEM with subangstrom spatial resolution, and first-principles calculations. It is found that primary tunnels (1 × 1 and 2 × 2) attach along their common {110} lateral surfaces to form interfaces corresponding to 2 × 3 tunnels that facilitate their short-range ordering. The OA growth of α-MnO2 nanowires is driven by the stability gained from elimination of {110} surfaces and saturation of Mn atoms at {110}-edges. During this process, extra [MnOx] radicals in solution link the two adjacent {110} surfaces and bond with the unsaturated Mn atoms from both surface edges to produce stable nanowire interfaces. Our results provide insights into the controlled synthesis and design of nanomaterials in which tunneled structures can be tailored for use in catalysis, ion exchange, and energy storage applications.

  11. Computational insights of water droplet transport on graphene sheet with chemical density

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Liuyang; Wang, Xianqiao, E-mail: xqwang@uga.edu [College of Engineering and NanoSEC, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia 30602 (United States)

    2014-05-21

    Surface gradient has been emerging as an intriguing technique for nanoscale particle manipulation and transportation. Owing to its outstanding and stable chemical properties, graphene with covalently bonded chemical groups represents extraordinary potential for the investigation of nanoscale transport in the area of physics and biology. Here, we employ molecular dynamics simulations to investigate the fundamental mechanism of utilizing a chemical density on a graphene sheet to control water droplet motions on it. Simulation results have demonstrated that the binding energy difference among distinct segment of graphene in terms of interaction between the covalently bonded oxygen atoms on graphene and the water molecules provides a fundamental driving force to transport the water droplet across the graphene sheet. Also, the velocity of the water droplet has showed a strong dependence on the relative concentration of oxygen atoms between successive segments. Furthermore, a multi-direction channel provides insights to guide the transportation of objects towards a targeted position, separating the mixtures with a system of specific chemical functionalization. Our findings shed illuminating lights on the surface gradient method and therefore provide a feasible way to control nanoscale motion on the surface and mimic the channelless microfluidics.

  12. Water versus DNA: New insights into proton track-structure modeling in radiobiology and radiotherapy

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Champion, Christophe; Quinto, Michele A.; Monti, Juan M.; Galassi, Mariel E.; Weck, Philippe F.; Fojon, Omar A.; Hanssen, Jocelyn; Rivarola, Roberto D.

    2015-09-25

    Water is a common surrogate of DNA for modelling the charged particle-induced ionizing processes in living tissue exposed to radiations. The present study aims at scrutinizing the validity of this approximation and then revealing new insights into proton-induced energy transfers by a comparative analysis between water and realistic biological medium. In this context, a self-consistent quantum mechanical modelling of the ionization and electron capture processes is reported within the continuum distorted wave-eikonal initial state framework for both isolated water molecules and DNA components impacted by proton beams. Their respective probability of occurrence-expressed in terms of total cross sections-as well asmore » their energetic signature (potential and kinetic) are assessed in order to clearly emphasize the differences existing between realistic building blocks of living matter and the controverted water-medium surrogate. Thus the consequences in radiobiology and radiotherapy will be discussed in particular in view of treatment planning refinement aiming at better radiotherapy strategies.« less

  13. Insights into the binding of PARP inhibitors to the catalytic domain of human tankyrase-2

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Qiu, Wei; Lam, Robert; Voytyuk, Oleksandr; Romanov, Vladimir; Gordon, Roni; Gebremeskel, Simon; Vodsedalek, Jakub; Thompson, Christine; Beletskaya, Irina; Battaile, Kevin P.; et al

    2014-07-31

    The poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) family represents a new class of therapeutic targets with diverse potential disease indications. PARP1 and PARP2 inhibitors have been developed for breast and ovarian tumors manifesting double-stranded DNA-repair defects, whereas tankyrase 1 and 2 (TNKS1 and TNKS2, also known as PARP5a and PARP5b, respectively) inhibitors have been developed for tumors with elevated β-catenin activity. As the clinical relevance of PARP inhibitors continues to be actively explored, there is heightened interest in the design of selective inhibitors based on the detailed structural features of how small-molecule inhibitors bind to each of the PARP family members. Here, themore » high-resolution crystal structures of the human TNKS2 PARP domain in complex with 16 various PARP inhibitors are reported, including the compounds BSI-201, AZD-2281 and ABT-888, which are currently in Phase 2 or 3 clinical trials. These structures provide insight into the inhibitor-binding modes for the tankyrase PARP domain and valuable information to guide the rational design of future tankyrase-specific inhibitors.« less

  14. The electronic characterization of biphenylene—Experimental and theoretical insights from core and valence level spectroscopy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lüder, Johann; Sanyal, Biplab; Eriksson, Olle; Brena, Barbara; Puglia, Carla; Simone, Monica de; Totani, Roberta; Coreno, Marcello; Grazioli, Cesare

    2015-02-21

    In this paper, we provide detailed insights into the electronic structure of the gas phase biphenylene molecule through core and valence spectroscopy. By comparing results of X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) measurements with ΔSCF core-hole calculations in the framework of Density Functional Theory (DFT), we could decompose the characteristic contributions to the total spectra and assign them to non-equivalent carbon atoms. As a difference with similar molecules like biphenyl and naphthalene, an influence of the localized orbitals on the relative XPS shifts was found. The valence spectrum probed by photoelectron spectroscopy at a photon energy of 50 eV in conjunction with hybrid DFT calculations revealed the effects of the localization on the electronic states. Using the transition potential approach to simulate the X-ray absorption spectroscopy measurements, similar contributions from the non-equivalent carbon atoms were determined from the total spectrum, for which the slightly shifted individual components can explain the observed asymmetric features.

  15. Water versus DNA: New insights into proton track-structure modeling in radiobiology and radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Champion, Christophe; Galassi, Mariel E.; Weck, Philippe F.; Fojon, Omar A.; Hanssen, Jocelyn; Rivarola, Roberto D.

    2015-09-25

    Water is a common surrogate of DNA for modelling the charged particle-induced ionizing processes in living tissue exposed to radiations. The present study aims at scrutinizing the validity of this approximation and then revealing new insights into proton-induced energy transfers by a comparative analysis between water and realistic biological medium. In this context, a self-consistent quantum mechanical modelling of the ionization and electron capture processes is reported within the continuum distorted wave-eikonal initial state framework for both isolated water molecules and DNA components impacted by proton beams. Their respective probability of occurrence-expressed in terms of total cross sections-as well as their energetic signature (potential and kinetic) are assessed in order to clearly emphasize the differences existing between realistic building blocks of living matter and the controverted water-medium surrogate. Thus the consequences in radiobiology and radiotherapy will be discussed in particular in view of treatment planning refinement aiming at better radiotherapy strategies.

  16. Insights into the structure of mixed CO2/CH4 in gas hydrates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Everett, Susan M; Rawn, Claudia J; Chakoumakos, Bryan C; Keffer, David J.; Huq, Ashfia; Phelps, Tommy Joe

    2015-01-01

    The exchange of CO2 for CH4 in natural gas hydrates is an attractive approach to methane for energy production while simultaneously sequestering CO2. In addition to the energy and environmental implications, the solid solution of clathrate hydrate (CH4)1-x(CO2)x 5.75H2O provides a model system to study how the distinct bonding and shapes of CH4 and CO2 influence the structure and properties of the compound. High-resolution neutron diffraction was used to examine mixed CO2/CH4 gas hydrates. CO2-rich hydrates had smaller lattice parameters, which were attributed to the higher affinity of the CO2 molecule interacting with H2O molecules that form the surrounding cages, and resulted in a reduction in the unit cell volume. Experimental nuclear scattering densities illustrate how the cage occupants and energy landscape change with composition. These results provide important insights on the impact and mechanisms for exchanging CH4 and CO2.

  17. Section 1603 Treasury Grant Expiration: Industry Insight on Financing and Market Implications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendelsohn, M.; Harper, J.

    2012-06-01

    In the wake of the 2008-2009 financial crises, tax equity investors largely withdrew from the market, resulting in stagnation of project development. In response, Congress established the Treasury grant program pursuant to Section 1603 of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (..Section..1603 Program) to offer a cash payment in lieu of a production and investment tax credit. This study addresses the likely project financing and market impacts from the expiration of the ..Section..1603 Program. The authors assembled an array of insights offered by financial executives active in the renewable energy (RE) market during conference panel discussions and in presentations, direct interviews, and email correspondences. This analysis found that the ..Section..1603 Program alleviated the need to monetize the tax credit incentives through specialized investors, helped lower the transaction and financing costs associated with renewable electricity projects, and generally supported an extensive build-out of renewable power generation capacity. With the expiration of the ..Section..1603 Program, smaller or less-established renewable power developers will have more difficulty attracting needed financial capital and completing their projects, development of projects relying on newer or 'innovative' technologies will likely slow as traditional tax equity investors are known to be highly averse to technology risk in the projects they fund, and, finally, projects relying on tax equity may be more expensive to develop due to higher transaction costs and potentially higher yields required to attract tax equity.

  18. Section 1603 Treasury Grant Expiration. Industry Insight on Financing and Market Implications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendelsohn, Michael; Harper, John

    2012-06-01

    In the wake of the 2008-2009 financial crises, tax equity investors largely withdrew from the market, resulting in stagnation of project development. In response, Congress established the Treasury grant program pursuant to Section 1603 of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (Section 1603 Program) to offer a cash payment in lieu of a production and investment tax credit. This study addresses the likely project financing and market impacts from the expiration of the Section 1603 Program. The authors assembled an array of insights offered by financial executives active in the renewable energy (RE) market during conference panel discussions and in presentations, direct interviews, and email correspondences. This analysis found that the Section 1603 Program alleviated the need to monetize the tax credit incentives through specialized investors, helped lower the transaction and financing costs associated with renewable electricity projects, and generally supported an extensive build-out of renewable power generation capacity. With the expiration of the Section 1603 Program, smaller or less-established renewable power developers will have more difficulty attracting needed financial capital and completing their projects, development of projects relying on newer or 'innovative' technologies will likely slow as traditional tax equity investors are known to be highly averse to technology risk in the projects they fund, and, finally, projects relying on tax equity may be more expensive to develop due to higher transaction costs and potentially higher yields required to attract tax equity.

  19. Design Insights for Tuning the Electrocatalytic Activity of Perovskite Oxides for the Oxygen Evolution Reaction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Malkhandi, S; Trinh, P; Manohar, AK; Manivannan, A; Balasubramanian, M; Prakash, GKS; Narayanan, SR

    2015-04-16

    Rechargeable metal-air batteries and water electrolyzers based on aqueous alkaline electrolytes hold the potential to be sustainable solutions to address the challenge of storing large amounts of electrical energy generated from solar and wind resources. For these batteries and electrolyzers to be economically viable, it is essential to have efficient, durable, and inexpensive electrocatalysts for the oxygen evolution reaction. In this article, we describe new insights for predicting and tuning the activity of inexpensive transition metal oxides for designing efficient and inexpensive electrocatalysts. We have focused on understanding the factors determining the electrocatalytic activity for oxygen evolution in a strong alkaline medium. To this end, we have conducted a systematic investigation of nanophase calcium-doped lanthanum cobalt manganese oxide, an example of a mixed metal oxide that can be tuned for its electrocatalytic activity by varying the transition metal composition. Using X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XANES), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), electrochemical polarization experiments, and analysis of mechanisms, we have identified the key determinants of electrocatalytic activity. We have found that the Tafel slopes are determined by the oxidation states and the bond energy of the surface intermediates of Mn-OH and Co-OH bonds while the catalytic activity increased with the average d-electron occupancy of the sigma* orbital of the M-OH bond. We anticipate that such understanding will be very useful in predicting the behavior of other transition metal oxide catalysts.

  20. Insights into the binding of PARP inhibitors to the catalytic domain of human tankyrase-2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qiu, Wei; Lam, Robert; Voytyuk, Oleksandr; Romanov, Vladimir; Gordon, Roni; Gebremeskel, Simon; Vodsedalek, Jakub; Thompson, Christine; Beletskaya, Irina; Battaile, Kevin P.; Pai, Emil F.; Rottapel, Robert; Chirgadze, Nickolay Y.

    2014-07-31

    The poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) family represents a new class of therapeutic targets with diverse potential disease indications. PARP1 and PARP2 inhibitors have been developed for breast and ovarian tumors manifesting double-stranded DNA-repair defects, whereas tankyrase 1 and 2 (TNKS1 and TNKS2, also known as PARP5a and PARP5b, respectively) inhibitors have been developed for tumors with elevated ?-catenin activity. As the clinical relevance of PARP inhibitors continues to be actively explored, there is heightened interest in the design of selective inhibitors based on the detailed structural features of how small-molecule inhibitors bind to each of the PARP family members. Here, the high-resolution crystal structures of the human TNKS2 PARP domain in complex with 16 various PARP inhibitors are reported, including the compounds BSI-201, AZD-2281 and ABT-888, which are currently in Phase 2 or 3 clinical trials. These structures provide insight into the inhibitor-binding modes for the tankyrase PARP domain and valuable information to guide the rational design of future tankyrase-specific inhibitors.

  1. Insights From Laboratory Experiments On Simulated Faults With Application To Fracture Evolution In Geothermal Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stephen L. Karner, Ph.D

    2006-06-01

    Laboratory experiments provide a wealth of information related to mechanics of fracture initiation, fracture propagation processes, factors influencing fault strength, and spatio-temporal evolution of fracture properties. Much of the existing literature reports on laboratory studies involving a coupling of thermal, hydraulic, mechanical, and/or chemical processes. As these processes operate within subsurface environments exploited for their energy resource, laboratory results provide insights into factors influencing the mechanical and hydraulic properties of geothermal systems. I report on laboratory observations of strength and fluid transport properties during deformation of simulated faults. The results show systematic trends that vary with stress state, deformation rate, thermal conditions, fluid content, and rock composition. When related to geophysical and geologic measurements obtained from engineered geothermal systems (e.g. microseismicity, wellbore studies, tracer analysis), laboratory results provide a means by which the evolving thermal reservoir can be interpreted in terms of physico-chemical processes. For example, estimates of energy release and microearthquake locations from seismic moment tensor analysis can be related to strength variations observed from friction experiments. Such correlations between laboratory and field data allow for better interpretations about the evolving mechanical and fluid transport properties in the geothermal reservoir ultimately leading to improvements in managing the resource.

  2. Insights into the structure of mixed CO2/CH4 in gas hydrates

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Everett, Susan M; Rawn, Claudia J; Chakoumakos, Bryan C; Keffer, David J.; Huq, Ashfia; Phelps, Tommy Joe

    2015-01-01

    The exchange of CO2 for CH4 in natural gas hydrates is an attractive approach to methane for energy production while simultaneously sequestering CO2. In addition to the energy and environmental implications, the solid solution of clathrate hydrate (CH4)1-x(CO2)x 5.75H2O provides a model system to study how the distinct bonding and shapes of CH4 and CO2 influence the structure and properties of the compound. High-resolution neutron diffraction was used to examine mixed CO2/CH4 gas hydrates. CO2-rich hydrates had smaller lattice parameters, which were attributed to the higher affinity of the CO2 molecule interacting with H2O molecules that form the surrounding cages,more » and resulted in a reduction in the unit cell volume. Experimental nuclear scattering densities illustrate how the cage occupants and energy landscape change with composition. These results provide important insights on the impact and mechanisms for exchanging CH4 and CO2.« less

  3. Mercury emissions from municipal solid waste combustors. An assessment of the current situation in the United States and forecast of future emissions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1993-05-01

    This report examines emissions of mercury (Hg) from municipal solid waste (MSW) combustion in the United States (US). It is projected that total annual nationwide MSW combustor emissions of mercury could decrease from about 97 tonnes (1989 baseline uncontrolled emissions) to less than about 4 tonnes in the year 2000. This represents approximately a 95 percent reduction in the amount of mercury emitted from combusted MSW compared to the 1989 mercury emissions baseline. The likelihood that routinely achievable mercury emissions removal efficiencies of about 80 percent or more can be assured; it is estimated that MSW combustors in the US could prove to be a comparatively minor source of mercury emissions after about 1995. This forecast assumes that diligent measures to control mercury emissions, such as via use of supplemental control technologies (e.g., carbon adsorption), are generally employed at that time. However, no present consensus was found that such emissions control measures can be implemented industry-wide in the US within this time frame. Although the availability of technology is apparently not a limiting factor, practical implementation of necessary control technology may be limited by administrative constraints and other considerations (e.g., planning, budgeting, regulatory compliance requirements, etc.). These projections assume that: (a) about 80 percent mercury emissions reduction control efficiency is achieved with air pollution control equipment likely to be employed by that time; (b) most cylinder-shaped mercury-zinc (CSMZ) batteries used in hospital applications can be prevented from being disposed into the MSW stream or are replaced with alternative batteries that do not contain mercury; and (c) either the amount of mercury used in fluorescent lamps is decreased to an industry-wide average of about 27 milligrams of mercury per lamp or extensive diversion from the MSW stream of fluorescent lamps that contain mercury is accomplished.

  4. Effects of soot-induced snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western United States based on Weather Research and Forecasting chemistry and regional climate simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qian, Yun; Gustafson, William I.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ghan, Steven J.

    2009-02-14

    Radiative forcing induced by soot on snow is a major anthropogenic forcing affecting the global climate. However, it is uncertain how the soot-induced snow albedo perturbation affects regional snowpack and the hydrological cycle. In this study we simulated the deposition of soot aerosol on snow and investigated the resulting impact on snowpack and the surface water budget in the western United States. A yearlong simulation was performed using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) to determine an annual budget of soot deposition, followed by two regional climate simulations using WRF in meteorology-only mode, with and without the soot-induced snow albedo perturbations. The chemistry simulation shows large spatial variability in soot deposition that reflects the localized emissions and the influence of the complex terrain. The soot-induced snow albedo perturbations increase the net solar radiation flux at the surface during late winter to early spring, increase the surface air temperature, reduce snow water equivalent amount, and lead to reduced snow accumulation and less spring snowmelt. These effects are stronger over the central Rockies and southern Alberta, where soot deposition and snowpack overlap the most. The indirect forcing of soot accelerates snowmelt and alters stream flows, including a trend toward earlier melt dates in the western United States. The soot-induced albedo reduction initiates a positive feedback process whereby dirty snow absorbs more solar radiation, heating the surface and warming the air. This warming causes reduced snow depth and fraction, which further reduces the regional surface albedo for the snow covered regions. Our simulations indicate that the change of maximum snow albedo induced by soot on snow contributes to 60% of the net albedo reduction over the central Rockies. Snowpack reduction accounts for the additional 40%.

  5. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed wind speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (θ ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35° and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF model’s MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a θ gradient method whether using observed or modelled θ profiles.

  6. A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

    2011-08-26

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

  7. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed windmore » speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (θ ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35° and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF model’s MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a θ gradient method whether using observed or modelled θ profiles.« less

  8. Structural and mechanistic insights into Mcm2-7 double-hexamer assembly and function

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sun, Jingchuan [Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Li, Huilin [Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY (United States); Fernandez-Cid, Alejandra [Imperial College Faculty of Medicine, London (United Kingdom). DNA Replication Group; Riera, Alberto [Imperial College Faculty of Medicine, London (United Kingdom). MRC Clinical Sciences Centre; Tognetti, Sivia [Imperial College Faculty of Medicine, London (United Kingdom). MRC Clinical Sciences Centre; Yuan, Zuanning [Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY (United States); Stillman, Bruce [Cold Spring Harbor Lab., NY (United States); Speck, Christian [Imperial College Faculty of Medicine, London (United Kingdom). DNA Replication Group

    2014-10-15

    Eukaryotic cells license each DNA replication origin during G1 phase by assembling a prereplication complex that contains a Mcm27 (minichromosome maintenance proteins 27) double hexamer. During S phase, each Mcm27 hexamer forms the core of a replicative DNA helicase. However, the mechanisms of origin licensing and helicase activation are poorly understood. The helicase loaders ORCCdc6 function to recruit a single Cdt1Mcm27 heptamer to replication origins prior to Cdt1 release and ORCCdc6Mcm27 complex formation, but how the second Mcm27 hexamer is recruited to promote double-hexamer formation is not well understood. Here, structural evidence for intermediates consisting of an ORCCdc6Mcm27 complex and an ORCCdc6Mcm27Mcm27 complex are reported, which together provide new insights into DNA licensing. Detailed structural analysis of the loaded Mcm27 double-hexamer complex demonstrates that the two hexamers are interlocked and misaligned along the DNA axis and lack ATP hydrolysis activity that is essential for DNA helicase activity. Moreover, we show that the head-to-head juxtaposition of the Mcm27 double hexamer generates a new protein interaction surface that creates a multisubunit-binding site for an S-phase protein kinase that is known to activate DNA replication. The data suggest how the double hexamer is assembled and how helicase activity is regulated during DNA licensing, with implications for cell cycle control of DNA replication and genome stability.

  9. Insights into proton-coupled electron transfer mechanisms of electrocatalytic H2 oxidation and production

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Horvath, Samantha; Fernandez, Laura; Soudackov, Alexander V.; Hammes-Schiffer, Sharon

    2012-09-25

    The design of molecular electrocatalysts for H2 oxidation and production is important for the development of alternative renewable energy sources that are abundant, inexpensive, and environmentally benign. Recently nickel-based molecular electrocatalysts with pendant amines that act as proton relays for the nickel center were shown to effectively catalyze H2 oxidation and production. We developed a quantum mechanical approach for studying proton-coupled electron transfer processes in these types of molecular electrocatalysts. This theoretical approach is applied to a nickel-based catalyst in which phosphorous atoms are directly bonded to the nickel center and nitrogen atoms of the ligand rings act as proton relays. The cataly c step of interest involves electron transfer between the nickel complex and the electrode as well as intramolecular proton transfer between the nickel and nitrogen atoms. This process can occur sequentially, with either the electron or proton transferring first, or concertedly, with the electron and proton transferring simultaneously without a stable intermediate. The heterogeneous rate constants are calculated as functions of overpotential for the concerted electron-proton transfer reaction and the two electron transfer reactions in the sequential mechanisms. Our calculations illustrate that the concerted electron-proton transfer standard rate constant will increase as the equilibrium distance between the nickel and nitrogen atoms decreases and as the nitrogen atoms become more mobile to facilitate the contraction of this distance. This approach assists in the identification of the favored mechanisms under various experimental conditions and provides insight into the qualitative impact of substituents on the nitrogen and phosphorous atoms. This research was supported as part of the Center for Molecular Electrocatalysis, an Energy Frontier Research Center funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, under FWP 56073.

  10. ROBUSTNESS OF DECISION INSIGHTS UNDER ALTERNATIVE ALEATORY/EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTY CLASSIFICATIONS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Eslinger, Paul W.; Johnson, Kenneth I.

    2013-09-22

    The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) pathway is a set of activities defined under the U.S. Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. The overarching objective of RISMC is to support plant life-extension decision-making by providing a state-of-knowledge characterization of safety margins in key systems, structures, and components (SSCs). A key technical challenge is to establish the conceptual and technical feasibility of analyzing safety margin in a risk-informed way, which, unlike conventionally defined deterministic margin analysis, would be founded on probabilistic characterizations of SSC performance. Evaluation of probabilistic safety margins will in general entail the uncertainty characterization both of the prospective challenge to the performance of an SSC ("load") and of its "capacity" to withstand that challenge. The RISMC framework contrasts sharply with the traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) structure in that the underlying models are not inherently aleatory. Rather, they are largely deterministic physical/engineering models with ambiguities about the appropriate uncertainty classification of many model parameters. The current analysis demonstrates that if the distinction between epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is to be preserved in a RISMC-like modeling environment, then it is unlikely that analysis insights supporting decision-making will in general be robust under recategorization of input uncertainties. If it is believed there is a true conceptual distinction between epistemic and aleatory uncertainty (as opposed to the distinction being primarily a legacy of the PRA paradigm) then a consistent and defensible basis must be established by which to categorize input uncertainties.

  11. Structural and mechanistic insights into Mcm2-7 double-hexamer assembly and function

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sun, Jingchuan; Li, Huilin; Fernandez-Cid, Alejandra; Riera, Alberto; Tognetti, Sivia; Yuan, Zuanning; Stillman, Bruce; Speck, Christian

    2014-10-15

    Eukaryotic cells license each DNA replication origin during G1 phase by assembling a prereplication complex that contains a Mcm2–7 (minichromosome maintenance proteins 2–7) double hexamer. During S phase, each Mcm2–7 hexamer forms the core of a replicative DNA helicase. However, the mechanisms of origin licensing and helicase activation are poorly understood. The helicase loaders ORC–Cdc6 function to recruit a single Cdt1–Mcm2–7 heptamer to replication origins prior to Cdt1 release and ORC–Cdc6–Mcm2–7 complex formation, but how the second Mcm2–7 hexamer is recruited to promote double-hexamer formation is not well understood. Here, structural evidence for intermediates consisting of an ORC–Cdc6–Mcm2–7 complex and an ORC–Cdc6–Mcm2–7–Mcm2–7 complex are reported, which together provide new insights into DNA licensing. Detailed structural analysis of the loaded Mcm2–7 double-hexamer complex demonstrates that the two hexamers are interlocked and misaligned along the DNA axis and lack ATP hydrolysis activity that is essential for DNA helicase activity. Moreover, we show that the head-to-head juxtaposition of the Mcm2–7 double hexamer generates a new protein interaction surface that creates a multisubunit-binding site for an S-phase protein kinase that is known to activate DNA replication. The data suggest how the double hexamer is assembled and how helicase activity is regulated during DNA licensing, with implications for cell cycle control of DNA replication and genome stability.

  12. Structural and mechanistic insights into Mcm2-7 double-hexamer assembly and function

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Sun, Jingchuan; Li, Huilin; Fernandez-Cid, Alejandra; Riera, Alberto; Tognetti, Sivia; Yuan, Zuanning; Stillman, Bruce; Speck, Christian

    2014-10-15

    Eukaryotic cells license each DNA replication origin during G1 phase by assembling a prereplication complex that contains a Mcm2–7 (minichromosome maintenance proteins 2–7) double hexamer. During S phase, each Mcm2–7 hexamer forms the core of a replicative DNA helicase. However, the mechanisms of origin licensing and helicase activation are poorly understood. The helicase loaders ORC–Cdc6 function to recruit a single Cdt1–Mcm2–7 heptamer to replication origins prior to Cdt1 release and ORC–Cdc6–Mcm2–7 complex formation, but how the second Mcm2–7 hexamer is recruited to promote double-hexamer formation is not well understood. Here, structural evidence for intermediates consisting of an ORC–Cdc6–Mcm2–7 complex andmore » an ORC–Cdc6–Mcm2–7–Mcm2–7 complex are reported, which together provide new insights into DNA licensing. Detailed structural analysis of the loaded Mcm2–7 double-hexamer complex demonstrates that the two hexamers are interlocked and misaligned along the DNA axis and lack ATP hydrolysis activity that is essential for DNA helicase activity. Moreover, we show that the head-to-head juxtaposition of the Mcm2–7 double hexamer generates a new protein interaction surface that creates a multisubunit-binding site for an S-phase protein kinase that is known to activate DNA replication. The data suggest how the double hexamer is assembled and how helicase activity is regulated during DNA licensing, with implications for cell cycle control of DNA replication and genome stability.« less

  13. Combinatorial Insights into Doping Control and Transport Properties of Zinc Tin Nitride

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fioretti, Angela N.; Zakutayev, Andriy; Moutinho, Helio; Melamed, Celeste; Perkins, John D.; Norman, Andrew G.; Al-Jassim, Mowafak; Toberer, Eric S.; Tamboli, Adele C.

    2015-09-21

    ZnSnN2 is an Earth-abundant semiconductor analogous to the III–nitrides with potential as a solar absorber due to its direct bandgap, steep absorption onset, and disorder-driven bandgap tunability. Despite these desirable properties, discrepancies in the fundamental bandgap and degenerate n-type carrier density have been prevalent issues in the limited amount of literature available on this material. We we use a combinatorial RF co-sputtering approach, we explored a growth-temperature-composition space for Zn1+xSn1-xN2 over the ranges 35–340 °C and 0.30–0.75 Zn/(Zn + Sn). In this way, we identified an optimal set of deposition parameters for obtaining as-deposited films with wurtzite crystal structure and carrier density as low as 1.8 × 1018 cm-3. Films grown at 230 °C with Zn/(Zn + Sn) = 0.60 were found to have the largest grain size overall (70 nm diameter on average) while also exhibiting low carrier density (3 × 1018 cm-3) and high mobility (8.3 cm2 V-1 s-1). Using this approach, we establish the direct bandgap of cation-disordered ZnSnN2 at 1.0 eV. Moreover, we report tunable carrier density as a function of cation composition, in which lower carrier density is observed for higher Zn content. Consequently, this relationship manifests as a Burstein–Moss shift widening the apparent bandgap as cation composition moves away from Zn-rich. Collectively, these findings provide important insight into the fundamental properties of the Zn–Sn–N material system and highlight the potential to utilize ZnSnN2 for photovoltaics.

  14. Galaxy Evolution Insights from Spectral Modeling of Large Data Sets from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoversten, Erik A.; /Johns Hopkins U.

    2007-10-01

    This thesis centers on the use of spectral modeling techniques on data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) to gain new insights into current questions in galaxy evolution. The SDSS provides a large, uniform, high quality data set which can be exploited in a number of ways. One avenue pursued here is to use the large sample size to measure precisely the mean properties of galaxies of increasingly narrow parameter ranges. The other route taken is to look for rare objects which open up for exploration new areas in galaxy parameter space. The crux of this thesis is revisiting the classical Kennicutt method for inferring the stellar initial mass function (IMF) from the integrated light properties of galaxies. A large data set ({approx} 10{sup 5} galaxies) from the SDSS DR4 is combined with more in-depth modeling and quantitative statistical analysis to search for systematic IMF variations as a function of galaxy luminosity. Galaxy H{alpha} equivalent widths are compared to a broadband color index to constrain the IMF. It is found that for the sample as a whole the best fitting IMF power law slope above 0.5 M{sub {circle_dot}} is {Lambda} = 1.5 {+-} 0.1 with the error dominated by systematics. Galaxies brighter than around M{sub r,0.1} = -20 (including galaxies like the Milky Way which has M{sub r,0.1} {approx} -21) are well fit by a universal {Lambda} {approx} 1.4 IMF, similar to the classical Salpeter slope, and smooth, exponential star formation histories (SFH). Fainter galaxies prefer steeper IMFs and the quality of the fits reveal that for these galaxies a universal IMF with smooth SFHs is actually a poor assumption. Related projects are also pursued. A targeted photometric search is conducted for strongly lensed Lyman break galaxies (LBG) similar to MS1512-cB58. The evolution of the photometric selection technique is described as are the results of spectroscopic follow-up of the best targets. The serendipitous discovery of two interesting blue compact dwarf galaxies is reported. These galaxies were identified by their extremely weak (< 150) [N {pi}] {lambda}6584 to H{alpha} emission line ratios. Abundance analysis from emission line fluxes reveals that these galaxies have gas phase oxygen abundances 12 + log(O/H) {approx} 7.7 to 7.9, not remarkably low, and near infrared imaging detects an old stellar population. However, the measured nitrogen to oxygen ratios log(N/O) < 1.7 are anomalously low for blue compact dwarf galaxies. These objects may be useful for understanding the chemical evolution of nitrogen.

  15. The Next Generation Nuclear Plant - Insights Gained from the INEEL Point Design Studies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Philip E. MacDonald; A. M. Baxter; P. D. Bayless; J. M. Bolin; H. D. Gougar; R. L. Moore; A. M. Ougouag; M. B. Richards; R. L. Sant; J. W. Sterbentz; W. K. Terry

    2004-08-01

    This paper provides the results of an assessment of two possible versions of the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP), a prismatic fuel type helium gas-cooled reactor and a pebble-bed fuel helium gas reactor. Insights gained regarding the strengths and weaknesses of the two designs are also discussed. Both designs will meet the three basic requirements that have been set for the NGNP: a coolant outlet temperature of 1000 C, passive safety, and a total power output consistent with that expected for commercial high-temperature gas-cooled reactors. Two major modifications of the current Gas Turbine- Modular Helium Reactor (GT-MHR) design were needed to obtain a prismatic block design with a 1000 C outlet temperature: reducing the bypass flow and better controlling the inlet coolant flow distribution to the core. The total power that could be obtained for different core heights without exceeding a peak transient fuel temperature of 1600 C during a high or low-pressure conduction cooldown event was calculated. With a coolant inlet temperature of 490 C and 10% nominal core bypass flow, it is estimated that the peak power for a 10-block high core is 686 MWt, for a 12-block high core is 786 MWt, and for a 14-block core is about 889 MWt. The core neutronics calculations showed that the NGNP will exhibit strongly negative Doppler and isothermal temperature coefficients of reactivity over the burnup cycle. In the event of rapid loss of the helium gas, there is negligible core reactivity change. However, water or steam ingress into the core coolant channels can produce a relatively large reactivity effect. Two versions of an annular pebble-bed NGNP have also been developed, a 300 and a 600 MWt module. From this work we learned how to design passively safe pebble bed reactors that produce more than 600 MWt. We also found a way to improve both the fuel utilization and safety by modifying the pebble design (by adjusting the fuel zone radius in the pebble to optimize the fuel-to-moderator ratio). We also learned how to perform design optimization calculations by using a genetic algorithm that automatically selects a sequence of design parameter sets to meet specified fitness criteria increasingly well. In the pebble-bed NGNP design work, we use the genetic algorithm to direct the INEELs PEBBED code to perform hundreds of code runs in less than a day to find optimized design configurations. And finally, we learned how to calculate cross sections more accurately for pebble bed reactors, and we identified research needs for the further refinement of the cross section calculations.

  16. On the origin of the Hubble sequence: I. Insights on galaxy color migration from cosmological simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cen, Renyue

    2014-01-20

    An analysis of more than 3000 galaxies resolved at better than 114 h{sup 1} pc at z = 0.62 in a 'LAOZI' cosmological adaptive mesh refinement hydrodynamic simulation is performed and insights are gained on star formation quenching and color migration. The vast majority of red galaxies are found to be within three virial radii of a larger galaxy at the onset of quenching, when the specific star formation rate experiences the sharpest decline to fall below ?10{sup 2}-10{sup 1} Gyr{sup 1} (depending on the redshift). Thus, we shall call this mechanism 'environment quenching', which encompasses satellite quenching. Two physical processes are largely responsible: Ram pressure stripping first disconnects the galaxy from the cold gas supply on large scales, followed by a longer period of cold gas starvation taking place in a high velocity-dispersion environment, in which during the early part of the process, the existing dense cold gas in the central region (?10 kpc) is consumed by in situ star formation. On average, quenching is found to be more efficient (i.e., a larger fraction of galaxies being quenched) but not faster (i.e., the duration being weakly dependent on the environment) in a denser environment. Throughout this quenching period and the ensuing one in the red sequence, galaxies follow nearly vertical tracks in the color-stellar mass diagram. In contrast, individual galaxies of all masses grow most of their stellar masses in the blue cloud, prior to the onset of quenching, and progressively more massive blue galaxies with already relatively older mean stellar ages continue to enter the red sequence. Consequently, correlations among observables of red galaxiessuch as the age-mass relation are largely inherited from their blue progenitors at the onset of quenching. While the color makeup of the entire galaxy population strongly depends on the environment, which is a direct result of environment quenching, physical properties of blue galaxies as a subpopulation show little dependence on the environment. A variety of predictions from the simulation are shown to be in accordance with extant observations.

  17. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the same way we check the weather each morning, individuals ... Brazil and Thailand, and tuberculosis in China and Thailand. ... public health data in one location and use it in another. ...

  18. Fallout forecasting: 1945-1962

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kennedy, W.R. Jr.

    1986-03-01

    The delayed hazards of fallout from the detonations of nuclear devices in the atmosphere have always been the concern of those involved in the Test Program. Even before the Trinity Shot (TR-2) of July 16, 1945, many very competent, intelligent scientists and others from all fields of expertise tried their hand at the prediction problems. This resume and collection of parts from reports, memoranda, references, etc., endeavor to chronologically outline prediction methods used operationally in the field during Test Operations of nuclear devices fired into the atmosphere.

  19. Stellar Astrophysics Requirements NERSC Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    (Copernicus Center, Warsaw). Computing cycles: DOE NERSC. 14 May 26, 2011 FLASHWDM Parallel Performance strong peak weak 15 May 26, 2011 Example 2: Core-Collapse SN...

  20. Economic and policy implications of pandemic influenza.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Braeton J.; Starks, Shirley J.; Loose, Verne W.; Brown, Theresa Jean; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-03-01

    Pandemic influenza has become a serious global health concern; in response, governments around the world have allocated increasing funds to containment of public health threats from this disease. Pandemic influenza is also recognized to have serious economic implications, causing illness and absence that reduces worker productivity and economic output and, through mortality, robs nations of their most valuable assets - human resources. This paper reports two studies that investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic flu outbreak. Policy makers can use the growing number of economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. Experts recognize that pandemic influenza has serious global economic implications. The illness causes absenteeism, reduced worker productivity, and therefore reduced economic output. This, combined with the associated mortality rate, robs nations of valuable human resources. Policy makers can use economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. In this paper economists examine two studies which investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak. Resulting policy implications are also discussed. The research uses the Regional Economic Modeling, Inc. (REMI) Policy Insight + Model. This model provides a dynamic, regional, North America Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry-structured framework for forecasting. It is supported by a population dynamics model that is well-adapted to investigating macro-economic implications of pandemic influenza, including possible demand side effects. The studies reported in this paper exercise all of these capabilities.

  1. Precipitation and Air Pollution at Mountain and Plain Stations in Northern China: Insights Gained from Observations and Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Guo, Jianping; Deng, Minjun; Fan, Jiwen; Li, Zhanqing; Chen, Qian; Zhai, Panmao; Dai, Zhijian; Li, Xiaowen

    2014-04-27

    We analyzed 40 year data sets of daily average visibility (a proxy for surface aerosol concentration) and hourly precipitation at seven weather stations, including three stations located on the Taihang Mountains, during the summertime in northern China. There was no significant trend in summertime total precipitation at almost all stations. However, light rain decreased, whereas heavy rain increased as visibility decreased over the period studied. The decrease in light rain was seen in both orographic-forced shallow clouds and mesoscale stratiform clouds. The consistent trends in observed changes in visibility, precipitation, and orographic factor appear to be a testimony to the effects of aerosols. The potential impact of large-scale environmental factors, such as precipitable water, convective available potential energy, and vertical wind shear, on precipitation was investigated. No direct links were found. To validate our observational hypothesis about aerosol effects, Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations with spectral-bin microphysics at the cloud-resolving scale were conducted. Model results confirmed the role of aerosol indirect effects in reducing the light rain amount and frequency in the mountainous area for both orographic-forced shallow clouds and mesoscale stratiform clouds and in eliciting a different response in the neighboring plains. The opposite response of light rain to the increase in pollution when there is no terrain included in the model suggests that orography is likely a significant factor contributing to the opposite trends in light rain seen in mountainous and plain areas.

  2. Insights from Smart Meters. Ramp-up, dependability, and short-term persistence of savings from Home Energy Reports

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Todd, Annika; Perry, Michael; Smith, Brian; Sullivan, Michael; Cappers, Peter; Goldman, Charles A.

    2015-04-21

    Smart meters, smart thermostats, and other new technologies provide previously unavailable high-frequency and location-specific energy usage data. Many utilities are now able to capture real-time, customer specific hourly interval usage data for a large proportion of their residential and small commercial customers. These vast, constantly growing streams of rich data (or, “big data”) have the potential to provide novel insights into key policy questions about how people make energy decisions. The richness and granularity of these data enable many types of creative and cutting-edge analytics. Technically sophisticated and rigorous statistical techniques can be used to pull useful insights out of this high-frequency, human-focused data. In this series, we call this “behavior analytics.” This kind of analytics has the potential to provide tremendous value to a wide range of energy programs. For example, disaggregated and heterogeneous information about actual energy use allows energy efficiency (EE) and/or demand response (DR) program implementers to target specific programs to specific households; enables evaluation, measurement and verification (EM&V) of energy efficiency programs to be performed on a much shorter time horizon than was previously possible; and may provide better insights into the energy and peak hour savings associated with EE and DR programs (e.g., behavior-based (BB) programs). The goal of this series is to enable evidence-based and data-driven decision making by policy makers and industry stakeholders, including program planners, program administrators, utilities, state regulatory agencies, and evaluators. We focus on research findings that are immediately relevant.

  3. Analysis of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990: A forecast of the electric utility industry response to Title IV, Acid Deposition Control

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Molburg, J.C.; Fox, J.A.; Pandola, G.; Cilek, C.M.

    1991-10-01

    The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 incorporate, for the first time, provisions aimed specifically at the control of acid rain. These provisions restrict emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) and oxides of nitrogen (NO{sub x}) from electric power generating stations. The restrictions on SO{sub 2} take the form of an overall cap on the aggregate emissions from major generating plants, allowing substantial flexibility in the industry`s response to those restrictions. This report discusses one response scenario through the year 2030 that was examined through a simulation of the utility industry based on assumptions consistent with characterizations used in the National Energy Strategy reference case. It also makes projections of emissions that would result from the use of existing and new capacity and of the associated additional costs of meeting demand subject to the emission limitations imposed by the Clean Air Act. Fuel-use effects, including coal-market shifts, consistent with the response scenario are also described. These results, while dependent on specific assumptions for this scenario, provide insight into the general character of the likely utility industry response to Title IV.

  4. Analysis of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990: A forecast of the electric utility industry response to Title IV, Acid Deposition Control

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Molburg, J.C.; Fox, J.A.; Pandola, G.; Cilek, C.M.

    1991-10-01

    The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 incorporate, for the first time, provisions aimed specifically at the control of acid rain. These provisions restrict emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO[sub 2]) and oxides of nitrogen (NO[sub x]) from electric power generating stations. The restrictions on SO[sub 2] take the form of an overall cap on the aggregate emissions from major generating plants, allowing substantial flexibility in the industry's response to those restrictions. This report discusses one response scenario through the year 2030 that was examined through a simulation of the utility industry based on assumptions consistent with characterizations used in the National Energy Strategy reference case. It also makes projections of emissions that would result from the use of existing and new capacity and of the associated additional costs of meeting demand subject to the emission limitations imposed by the Clean Air Act. Fuel-use effects, including coal-market shifts, consistent with the response scenario are also described. These results, while dependent on specific assumptions for this scenario, provide insight into the general character of the likely utility industry response to Title IV.

  5. Molecular-Level Insights into Photocatalysis from Scanning Probe Microscopy Studies on TiO2(110)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Henderson, Michael A.; Lyubinetsky, Igor

    2013-06-12

    The field of heterogeneous photocatalysis has grown considerably in the decades since Fujishima and Honda's ground-breaking publications of photoelectrochemistry on TiO2. Numerous review articles continue to point to both progress made in the use of heterogeneous materials (such as TiO2) to perform photoconversion processes, and the many opportunities and challenges in heterogeneous photocatalysis research such as solar energy conversion and environmental remediation. The past decade has also seen an increase in the use of molecular-level approaches applied to model single crystal surfaces in an effort to obtain new insights into photocatalytic phenomena. In particular, scanning probe techniques (SPM) have enabled researchers to take a nanoscale approach to photocatalysis that includes interrogation of the reactivities of specific sites and adsorbates on a model photocatalyst surface. The rutile TiO2(110) surface has become the prototypical oxide single crystal surface for fundamental studies of many interfacial phenomena. In particular, TiO2(110) has become an excellent model surface for probing photochemical and photocatalytic reactions at the molecular level. A variety of experimental approaches have emerged as being ideally suited for studying photochemical reactions on TiO2(110), including desorption-oriented approaches and electronic spectroscopies, but perhaps the most promising techniques for evaluating site-specific properties are those of SPM. In this review, we highlight the growing use of SPM techniques in providing molecular-level insights into surface photochemistry on the model photocatalyst surface of rutile TiO2(110). Our objective is to both illustrate the unique knowledge that scanning probe techniques have already provided the field of photocatalysis, and also to motivate a new generation of effort into the use of such approaches to obtain new insights into the molecular level details of photochemical events occurring at interfaces. Discussion will start with an examination of how scanning probe techniques are being used to characterize the TiO2(110) surface in ways that are relevant to photocatalysis. We will then discuss specific classes of photochemical reaction on TiO2(110) for which SPM has proven indispensible in providing unique molecular-level insights, and conclude with discussion of future areas in which SPM studies may prove valuable to photocatalysis on TiO2. This work was supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Division of Chemical Sciences, Geosciences & Biosciences. I.L. was partially supported by a Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Chemical Imaging Initiative project. PNNL is a multiprogram national laboratory operated for DOE by Battelle.

  6. Macro-Industrial Working Group 2

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    projections - Macroeconomic driven: chemical shipmentsproduction - Feedstock price ... efficiency improvements * Macroeconomic chemical drivers: bulk chemicals (organic, ...

  7. USE OF AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL TO FORECAST DISSOLUTION EFFECTIVENESS, SAFETY IMPACTS, AND DOWNSTREAM PROCESSABILITY FROM OXALIC ACID AIDED SLUDGE REMOVAL IN SAVANNAH RIVER SITE HIGH LEVEL WASTE TANKS 1-15

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    KETUSKY, EDWARD

    2005-10-31

    This thesis details a graduate research effort written to fulfill the Magister of Technologiae in Chemical Engineering requirements at the University of South Africa. The research evaluates the ability of equilibrium based software to forecast dissolution, evaluate safety impacts, and determine downstream processability changes associated with using oxalic acid solutions to dissolve sludge heels in Savannah River Site High Level Waste (HLW) Tanks 1-15. First, a dissolution model is constructed and validated. Coupled with a model, a material balance determines the fate of hypothetical worst-case sludge in the treatment and neutralization tanks during each chemical adjustment. Although sludge is dissolved, after neutralization more is created within HLW. An energy balance determines overpressurization and overheating to be unlikely. Corrosion induced hydrogen may overwhelm the purge ventilation. Limiting the heel volume treated/acid added and processing the solids through vitrification is preferred and should not significantly increase the number of glass canisters.

  8. Insight into the Catalytic Mechanism of Bimetallic Platinum–Copper Core–Shell Nanostructures for Nonaqueous Oxygen Evolution Reactions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ma, Lu; Luo, Xiangyi; Kropf, A. Jeremy; Wen, Jianguo; Wang, Xiaoping; Lee, Sungsik; Myers, Deborah J.; Miller, Dean; Wu, Tianpin; Lu, Jun; Amine, Khalil

    2016-01-01

    The oxygen evolution reaction (OER) plays a critical role in multiple energy conversion and storage applications. However, its sluggish kinetics usually results in large voltage polarization and unnecessary energy loss. Therefore, designing efficient catalysts that could facilitate this process has become an emerging topic. Here, we present a unique Pt–Cu core–shell nanostructure for catalyzing the nonaqueous OER. The catalysts were systematically investigated with comprehensive spectroscopic techniques, and applied in nonaqueous Li–O2 electrochemical cells, which exhibited dramatically reduced charging overpotential (<0.2 V). The superior performance is explained by the robust Cu(I) surface sites stabilized by the Pt core in the nanostructure. The insights into the catalytic mechanism of the unique Pt–Cu core–shell nanostructure gained in this work are expected to serve as a guide for future design of other nanostructured bimetallic OER catalysts.

  9. Pulsed high-magnetic-field experiments: New insights into the magnetocaloric effect in Ni-Mn-In Heusler alloys

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Salazar Mejía, C. Nayak, A. K.; Felser, C.; Nicklas, M.; Ghorbani Zavareh, M.; Wosnitza, J.; Skourski, Y.

    2015-05-07

    The present pulsed high-magnetic-field study on Ni{sub 50}Mn{sub 35}In{sub 15} gives an extra insight into the thermodynamics of the martensitic transformation in Heusler shape-memory alloys. The transformation-entropy change, ΔS, was estimated from field-dependent magnetization experiments in pulsed high magnetic fields and by heat-capacity measurements in static fields. We found a decrease of ΔS with decreasing temperature. This behavior can be understood by considering the different signs of the lattice and magnetic contributions to the total entropy. Our results further imply that the magnetocaloric effect will decrease with decreasing temperature and, furthermore, the martensitic transition is not induced anymore by changing the temperature in high magnetic fields.

  10. New insights gained on mechanisms of low-energy proton-induced SEUs by minimizing energy straggle

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Dodds, Nathaniel Anson; Dodd, Paul E.; Shaneyfelt, Marty R.; Sexton, Frederick W.; Martinez, Marino J.; Black, Jeffrey D.; Marshall, P. W.; Reed, R. A.; McCurdy, M. W.; Weller, R. A.; et al

    2015-12-01

    In this study, we present low-energy proton single-event upset (SEU) data on a 65 nm SOI SRAM whose substrate has been completely removed. Since the protons only had to penetrate a very thin buried oxide layer, these measurements were affected by far less energy loss, energy straggle, flux attrition, and angular scattering than previous datasets. The minimization of these common sources of experimental interference allows more direct interpretation of the data and deeper insight into SEU mechanisms. The results show a strong angular dependence, demonstrate that energy straggle, flux attrition, and angular scattering affect the measured SEU cross sections, andmore » prove that proton direct ionization is the dominant mechanism for low-energy proton-induced SEUs in these circuits.« less

  11. New insights gained on mechanisms of low-energy proton-induced SEUs by minimizing energy straggle

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dodds, Nathaniel Anson; Dodd, Paul E.; Shaneyfelt, Marty R.; Sexton, Frederick W.; Martinez, Marino J.; Black, Jeffrey D.; Marshall, P. W.; Reed, R. A.; McCurdy, M. W.; Weller, R. A.; Pellish, J. A.; Rodbell, K. P.; Gordon, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    In this study, we present low-energy proton single-event upset (SEU) data on a 65 nm SOI SRAM whose substrate has been completely removed. Since the protons only had to penetrate a very thin buried oxide layer, these measurements were affected by far less energy loss, energy straggle, flux attrition, and angular scattering than previous datasets. The minimization of these common sources of experimental interference allows more direct interpretation of the data and deeper insight into SEU mechanisms. The results show a strong angular dependence, demonstrate that energy straggle, flux attrition, and angular scattering affect the measured SEU cross sections, and prove that proton direct ionization is the dominant mechanism for low-energy proton-induced SEUs in these circuits.

  12. Efficient and Reliable Reactive Power Supply and Consumption --Insights from an Integrated Program of Engineering and EconomicResearch

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, Robert J.; Mount, Timothy D.; Schuler, Richard; Schulze,William; Zimmerman, Ray; Alvarado, Fernando; Lesieutre, Bernard C.; Overholt, Philip N.; Eto, Joseph H.

    2008-01-01

    In 2005, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) began discussing regulatory policy for reactive-power procurement and pricing in competitive electricity markets. This paper summarizes findings from a unique, interdisciplinary program of public-interest research that lays a formal foundation for evaluating aspects of FERC staff recommendations and offers early insights that should be useful in guiding policy implementation, specifically by: (1) clarifying the consumers and economic characteristics of reactive power as a basis for creating incentives to appropriately price it, (2) defining specific challenges in creating a competitive market for reactive power as well as new tools needed to help ensure such a market functions efficiently, and (3) demonstrating the importance of accounting for the physical characteristics of the transmission network in planning for reactive power and avoiding the exercise of market power by suppliers.

  13. A Carbon Flux Super Site. New Insights and Innovative Atmosphere-Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Measurements and Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leclerc, Monique Y.

    2014-11-17

    This final report presents the main activities and results of the project “A Carbon Flux Super Site: New Insights and Innovative Atmosphere-Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Measurements and Modeling” from 10/1/2006 to 9/30/2014. It describes the new AmeriFlux tower site (Aiken) at Savanna River Site (SC) and instrumentation, long term eddy-covariance, sodar, microbarograph, soil and other measurements at the site, and intensive field campaigns of tracer experiment at the Carbon Flux Super Site, SC, in 2009 and at ARM-CF site, Lamont, OK, and experiments in Plains, GA. The main results on tracer experiment and modeling, on low-level jet characteristics and their impact on fluxes, on gravity waves and their influence on eddy fluxes, and other results are briefly described in the report.

  14. Structural, functional and immunogenic insights on Cu,Zn superoxide dismutase pathogenic virulence factors from Neisseria meningitidis and Brucella abortus

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pratt, Ashley J.; DiDonato, Michael; Shin, David S.; Cabelli, Diane E.; Bruns, Cami K.; Belzer, Carol A.; Gorringe, Andrew R.; Langford, Paul R.; Tabatabai, Louisa B.; Kroll, J. Simon; et al

    2015-10-12

    Bacterial pathogens Neisseria meningitidis and Brucella abortus pose threats to human and animal health worldwide, causing meningococcal disease and brucellosis, respectively. Mortality from acute N. meningitidis infections remains high despite antibiotics, and brucellosis presents alimentary and health consequences. Superoxide dismutases are master regulators of reactive oxygen, general pathogenicity factors and therefore therapeutic targets. Cu,Zn superoxide dismutases (SODs) localized to the periplasm promote survival by detoxifying superoxide radicals generated by major host antimicrobial immune responses. We discovered that passive immunization with an antibody directed at N. meningitidis SOD (NmSOD) was protective in a mouse infection model. To define the relevant atomicmore » details and solution assembly states of this important virulence factor, we report high-resolution and X-ray scattering analyses of NmSOD and SOD from B. abortus (BaSOD). The NmSOD structures revealed an auxiliary tetrahedral Cu-binding site bridging the dimer interface; mutational analyses suggested that this metal site contributes to protein stability, with implications for bacterial defense mechanisms. Biochemical and structural analyses informed us about electrostatic substrate guidance, dimer assembly and an exposed C-terminal epitope in the NmSOD dimer. In contrast, the monomeric BaSOD structure provided insights for extending immunogenic peptide epitopes derived from the protein. These collective results reveal unique contributions of SOD to pathogenic virulence, refine predictive motifs for distinguishing SOD classes and suggest general targets for anti-bacterial immune responses. The identified functional contributions, motifs, and targets distinguishing bacterial and eukaryotic SOD assemblies presented here provide a foundation for efforts to develop SOD-specific inhibitors or vaccines against these harmful pathogens. IMPORTANCE By protecting microbes against reactive oxygen insults, Cu,Zn superoxide dismutases (SODs) aid survival of many bacteria within their hosts. Despite the ubiquity and conservation of these key enzymes, notable species-specific differences relevant to pathogenesis remain undefined. To probe mechanisms that govern the functioning of Neisseria meningitidis and Brucella abortus SODs, we used X-ray structures, enzymology, modeling and murine infection experiments. We identified virulence determinants common to both homologs, assembly differences and a unique metal reservoir within meningococcal SOD that stabilizes the enzyme and may provide a safeguard against copper toxicity. The insights reported here provide a rationale and basis for SOD-specific drugs and extension of immunogen design to target two important pathogens that continue to pose global health threats.« less

  15. Insights into Stress Corrosion Cracking Mechanisms from High-Resolution Measurements of Crack-Tip Structures and Compositions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bruemmer, Stephen M.; Thomas, Larry E.

    2004-11-25

    Recent results are presented demonstrating the application of cross-sectional analytical transmission electron microscopy (ATEM) to corrosion and cracking in high-temperature, light-water-reactor (LWR) environments. Structural, compositional and crystallographic characterizations of crack-tip oxide films and interfaces at near-atomic resolutions reveal evidence for unexpected local environments, corrosion reactions and local changes in the alloy metallurgy. Information obtained by high-resolution imaging and analysis indicates the corrosion processes that occur during crack advance, and provides insights into the mechanisms controlling environmental degradation. Examples of intergranular stress-corrosion cracking (IGSCC) in Ni- and Fe-base stainless alloys are reviewed to illustrate the value of this approach. Comparisons are made between crack characteristics found in components removed from long-term LWR service and those in materials tested under well-controlled laboratory conditions. Key insights into crack corrosion environments and advance mechanisms are established for Ni-base alloy 600 in steam-generator, secondary-water environments. Solution impurities such as Pb are often found in high concentrations at leading-edge reaction zones within porous, corrosion-product films. The presence of nanometer-wide, deeply attacked grain boundaries off the main SCC cracks (without evidence for plastic deformation) is believed to indicate a major role of active-path IG corrosion in the SCC process. Similar characteristics are identified for alloy 600 cracking in primary water. This suggests that Pb may only accelerate the IG corrosion process and not alter the basic degradation mechanism. Quite different IGSCC crack and crack-tip characteristics have been discovered for Fe-base stainless steels in LWR environments. More classic SCC crack and crack-tip structures have been seen in non-sensitized materials with wall oxide films extending to the tips. Cracked components after long-term service exposure show distinct differences in the crack-tip region microchemistry versus shorter-term laboratory SCC samples. Compositional changes in the metal ahead of many crack tips suggest that selective dissolution/oxidation occurs at the leading edge of degradation. Results for specific samples are used to demonstrate the ability of cross-sectional ATEM to reveal new details of crack-tip structures that cannot be detected by other methods.

  16. Insights into archaeal evolution and symbiosis from the genomes of a Nanoarchaeon and its crenarchaeal host from Yellowstone National Park

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Podar, Mircea; Graham, David E; Reysenbach, Anna-Louise; Koonin, Eugene; Wolf, Yuri; Makarova, Kira S.

    2013-01-01

    A hyperthemophilic member of the Nanoarchaeota from Obsidian Pool, a thermal feature in Yellowstone National Park was characterized using single cell isolation and sequencing, together with its putative host, a Sulfolobales archaeon. This first representative of a non-marine Nanoarchaeota (Nst1) resembles Nanoarchaeum equitans by lacking most biosynthetic capabilities, the two forming a deep-branching archaeal lineage. However, the Nst1 genome is over 20% larger, encodes a complete gluconeogenesis pathway and a full complement of archaeal flagellum proteins. Comparison of the two genomes suggests that the marine and terrestrial Nanoarchaeota lineages share a common ancestor that was already a symbiont of another archaeon. With a larger genome, a smaller repertoire of split protein encoding genes and no split non-contiguous tRNAs, Nst1 appears to have experienced less severe genome reduction than N. equitans. The inferred host of Nst1 is potentially autotrophic, with a streamlined genome and simplified central and energetic metabolism as compared to other Sulfolobales. The two distinct Nanoarchaeota-host genomic data sets offer insights into the evolution of archaeal symbiosis and parasitism and will further enable studies of the cellular and molecular mechanisms of these relationships.

  17. Nuclear Safety Design Principles & the Concept of Independence: Insights from Nuclear Weapon Safety for Other High-Consequence Applications.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brewer, Jeffrey D.

    2014-05-01

    Insights developed within the U.S. nuclear weapon system safety community may benefit system safety design, assessment, and management activities in other high consequence domains. The approach of assured nuclear weapon safety has been developed that uses the Nuclear Safety Design Principles (NSDPs) of incompatibility, isolation, and inoperability to design safety features, organized into subsystems such that each subsystem contributes to safe system responses in independent and predictable ways given a wide range of environmental contexts. The central aim of the approach is to provide a robust technical basis for asserting that a system can meet quantitative safety requirements in the widest context of possible adverse or accident environments, while using the most concise arrangement of safety design features and the fewest number of specific adverse or accident environment assumptions. Rigor in understanding and applying the concept of independence is crucial for the success of the approach. This paper provides a basic description of the assured nuclear weapon safety approach, in a manner that illustrates potential application to other domains. There is also a strong emphasis on describing the process for developing a defensible technical basis for the independence assertions between integrated safety subsystems.

  18. Risk perception & strategic decision making :general insights, a framework, and specific application to electricity generation using nuclear energy.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brewer, Jeffrey D.

    2005-11-01

    The objective of this report is to promote increased understanding of decision making processes and hopefully to enable improved decision making regarding high-consequence, highly sophisticated technological systems. This report brings together insights regarding risk perception and decision making across domains ranging from nuclear power technology safety, cognitive psychology, economics, science education, public policy, and neural science (to name a few). It forms them into a unique, coherent, concise framework, and list of strategies to aid in decision making. It is suggested that all decision makers, whether ordinary citizens, academics, or political leaders, ought to cultivate their abilities to separate the wheat from the chaff in these types of decision making instances. The wheat includes proper data sources and helpful human decision making heuristics; these should be sought. The chaff includes ''unhelpful biases'' that hinder proper interpretation of available data and lead people unwittingly toward inappropriate decision making ''strategies''; obviously, these should be avoided. It is further proposed that successfully accomplishing the wheat vs. chaff separation is very difficult, yet tenable. This report hopes to expose and facilitate navigation away from decision-making traps which often ensnare the unwary. Furthermore, it is emphasized that one's personal decision making biases can be examined, and tools can be provided allowing better means to generate, evaluate, and select among decision options. Many examples in this report are tailored to the energy domain (esp. nuclear power for electricity generation). The decision making framework and approach presented here are applicable to any high-consequence, highly sophisticated technological system.

  19. Insights into Hsp70 Chaperone Activity from a Crystal Structure of the Yeast Hsp110 Sse1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu,Q.; Hendrickson, W.

    2007-01-01

    Classic Hsp70 chaperones assist in diverse processes of protein folding and translocation, and Hsp110s had seemed by sequence to be distant relatives within an Hsp70 superfamily. The 2.4 Angstroms resolution structure of Sse1 with ATP shows that Hsp110s are indeed Hsp70 relatives, and it provides insight into allosteric coupling between sites for ATP and polypeptide-substrate binding in Hsp70s. Subdomain structures are similar in intact Sse1(ATP) and in the separate Hsp70 domains, but conformational dispositions are radically different. Interfaces between Sse1 domains are extensive, intimate, and conservative in sequence with Hsp70s. We propose that Sse1(ATP) may be an evolutionary vestige of the Hsp70(ATP) state, and an analysis of 64 mutant variants in Sse1 and three Hsp70 homologs supports this hypothesis. An atomic-level understanding of Hsp70 communication between ATP and substrate-binding domains follows. Requirements on Sse1 for yeast viability are in keeping with the distinct function of Hsp110s as nucleotide exchange factors.

  20. Multi-scale Detection of Organic and Inorganic Signatures Provides Insights into Gas Shale Properties and Evolution

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bernard, S.; Horsfield, B; Schultz, H; Schreiber, A; Wirth, R; Thi AnhVu, T; Perssen, F; Konitzer, S; Volk, H; et. al.

    2010-01-01

    Organic geochemical analyses, including solvent extraction or pyrolysis, followed by gas chromatography and mass spectrometry, are generally conducted on bulk gas shale samples to evaluate their source and reservoir properties. While organic petrology has been directed at unravelling the matrix composition and textures of these economically important unconventional resources, their spatial variability in chemistry and structure is still poorly documented at the sub-micrometre scale. Here, a combination of techniques including transmission electron microscopy and a synchrotron-based microscopy tool, scanning transmission X-ray microscopy, have been used to characterize at a multiple length scale an overmature organic-rich calcareous mudstone from northern Germany. We document multi-scale chemical and mineralogical heterogeneities within the sample, from the millimetre down to the nanometre-scale. From the detection of different types of bitumen and authigenic minerals associated with the organic matter, we show that the multi-scale approach used in this study may provide new insights into gaseous hydrocarbon generation/retention processes occurring within gas shales and may shed new light on their thermal history.

  1. Changes in Moisture Flux over the Tibetan Plateau during 1979-2011: Insights from a High Resolution Simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gao, Yanhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Zhang, Yongxin; Cuo, Lan

    2015-05-15

    Net precipitation (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P-E) changes between 1979 and 2011 from a high resolution regional climate simulation and its reanalysis forcing are analyzed over the Tibet Plateau (TP) and compared to the global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) product. The high resolution simulation better resolves precipitation changes than its coarse resolution forcing, which contributes dominantly to the improved P-E change in the regional simulation compared to the global reanalysis. Hence, the former may provide better insights about the drivers of P-E changes. The mechanism behind the P-E changes is explored by decomposing the column integrated moisture flux convergence into thermodynamic, dynamic, and transient eddy components. High-resolution climate simulation improves the spatial pattern of P-E changes over the best available global reanalysis. High-resolution climate simulation also facilitates new and substantial findings regarding the role of thermodynamics and transient eddies in P-E changes reflected in observed changes in major river basins fed by runoff from the TP. The analysis revealed the contrasting convergence/divergence changes between the northwestern and southeastern TP and feedback through latent heat release as an important mechanism leading to the mean P-E changes in the TP.

  2. Recent advances in biosynthetic modeling of nitric oxide reductases and insights gained from nuclear resonance vibrational and other spectroscopic studies

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Chakraborty, Saumen; Reed, Julian; Sage, Timothy; Branagan, Nicole C.; Petrik, Igor D.; Miner, Kyle D.; Hu, Michael Y.; Zhao, Jiyong; Alp, E. Ercan; Lu, Yi

    2015-08-14

    This Forum Article focuses on recent advances in structural and spectroscopic studies of biosynthetic models of nitric oxide reductases (NORs). NORs are complex metalloenzymes found in the denitrification pathway of Earth's nitrogen cycle where they catalyze the proton-dependent twoelectron reduction of nitric oxide (NO) to nitrous oxide (N2O). While much progress has been made in biochemical and biophysical studies of native NORs and their variants, a. clear mechanistic understanding of this important metalloenzyme related to its function is still elusive. We report herein UV vis and nuclear resonance vibrational spectroscopy (NRVS) studies of mononitrosylated intermediates of the NOR reaction ofmore » a biosynthetic model. The ability to selectively substitute metals at either heme or nonheme metal sites allows the introduction of independent 57Fe probe atoms at either site, as well as allowing the preparation of analogues of stable reaction intermediates by replacing either metal with a redox inactive metal. Together with previous structural and spectroscopic results, we summarize insights gained from studying these biosynthetic models toward understanding structural features responsible for the NOR activity and its mechanism. As a result, the outlook on NOR modeling is also discussed, with an emphasis on the design of models capable of catalytic turnovers designed based on close mimics of the secondary coordination sphere of native NORs.« less

  3. New X-ray insight into oxygen intercalation in epitaxial graphene grown on 4H-SiC(0001)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kowalski, G. Tokarczyk, M.; D?browski, P.; Ciepielewski, P.; Mo?d?onek, M.; Strupi?ski, W.; Baranowski, J. M.

    2015-03-14

    Efficient control of intercalation of epitaxial graphene by specific elements is a way to change properties of the graphene. Results of several experimental techniques, such as X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, micro-Raman mapping, reflectivity, attenuated total reflection, X-ray diffraction, and X-ray reflectometry, gave a new insight into the intercalation of oxygen in the epitaxial graphene grown on 4H-SiC(0001). These results confirmed that oxygen intercalation decouples the graphene buffer layer from the 4H-SiC surface and converts it into the graphene layer. However, in contrast to the hydrogen intercalation, oxygen does not intercalate between carbon planes (in the case of few layer graphene) and the interlayer spacing stays constant at the level of 3.353.32?. Moreover, X-ray reflectometry showed the presence of an oxide layer having the thickness of about 0.8? underneath the graphene layers. Apart from the formation of the nonuniform thin oxide layer, generation of defects in graphene caused by oxygen was also evidenced. Last but not least, water islands underneath defected graphene regions in both intercalated and non-intercalated samples were most probably revealed. These water islands are formed in the case of all the samples stored under ambient laboratory conditions. Water islands can be removed from underneath the few layer graphene stacks by relevant thermal treatment or by UV illumination.

  4. Insights into the structure–photoreactivity relationships in well-defined perovskite ferroelectric KNbO 3 nanowires

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Tingting; Lei, Wanying; Liu, Ping; Rodriguez, José A.; Yu, Jiaguo; Qi, Yang; Liu, Gang; Liu, Minghua

    2015-04-23

    Structure–function correlations are a central theme in heterogeneous (photo)catalysis. In this study, the geometric and electronic structure of perovskite ferroelectric KNbO3 nanowires with respective orthorhombic and monoclinic polymorphs have been systematically addressed. By virtue of aberration-corrected scanning transmission electron microscopy, we directly visualize surface photocatalytic active sites, measure local atomic displacements at an accuracy of several picometers, and quantify ferroelectric polarization combined with first-principles calculations. The photoreactivity of the as-prepared KNbO3 nanowires is assessed toward aqueous rhodamine B degradation under UV light. A synergy between the ferroelectric polarization and electronic structure in photoreactivity enhancement is uncovered, which accounts for themore » prominent reactivity order: orthorhombic > monoclinic. Additionally, by identifying new photocatalytic products, rhodamine B degradation pathways involving N-deethylation and conjugated structure cleavage are proposed. The findings not only provide new insights into the structure–photoreactivity relationships in perovskite ferroelectric photocatalysts, but also have broad implications in perovskite-based water splitting and photovoltaics, among others.« less

  5. Recent advances in biosynthetic modeling of nitric oxide reductases and insights gained from nuclear resonance vibrational and other spectroscopic studies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chakraborty, Saumen; Reed, Julian; Sage, Timothy; Branagan, Nicole C.; Petrik, Igor D.; Miner, Kyle D.; Hu, Michael Y.; Zhao, Jiyong; Alp, E. Ercan; Lu, Yi

    2015-08-14

    This Forum Article focuses on recent advances in structural and spectroscopic studies of biosynthetic models of nitric oxide reductases (NORs). NORs are complex metalloenzymes found in the denitrification pathway of Earth's nitrogen cycle where they catalyze the proton-dependent twoelectron reduction of nitric oxide (NO) to nitrous oxide (N2O). While much progress has been made in biochemical and biophysical studies of native NORs and their variants, a. clear mechanistic understanding of this important metalloenzyme related to its function is still elusive. We report herein UV vis and nuclear resonance vibrational spectroscopy (NRVS) studies of mononitrosylated intermediates of the NOR reaction of a biosynthetic model. The ability to selectively substitute metals at either heme or nonheme metal sites allows the introduction of independent 57Fe probe atoms at either site, as well as allowing the preparation of analogues of stable reaction intermediates by replacing either metal with a redox inactive metal. Together with previous structural and spectroscopic results, we summarize insights gained from studying these biosynthetic models toward understanding structural features responsible for the NOR activity and its mechanism. As a result, the outlook on NOR modeling is also discussed, with an emphasis on the design of models capable of catalytic turnovers designed based on close mimics of the secondary coordination sphere of native NORs.

  6. Insights into the structure–photoreactivity relationships in well-defined perovskite ferroelectric KNbO 3 nanowires

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Tingting; Lei, Wanying; Liu, Ping; Rodriguez, José A.; Yu, Jiaguo; Qi, Yang; Liu, Gang; Liu, Minghua

    2015-04-23

    Structure–function correlations are a central theme in heterogeneous (photo)catalysis. In this study, the geometric and electronic structure of perovskite ferroelectric KNbO3 nanowires with respective orthorhombic and monoclinic polymorphs have been systematically addressed. By virtue of aberration-corrected scanning transmission electron microscopy, we directly visualize surface photocatalytic active sites, measure local atomic displacements at an accuracy of several picometers, and quantify ferroelectric polarization combined with first-principles calculations. The photoreactivity of the as-prepared KNbO3 nanowires is assessed toward aqueous rhodamine B degradation under UV light. A synergy between the ferroelectric polarization and electronic structure in photoreactivity enhancement is uncovered, which accounts for the prominent reactivity order: orthorhombic > monoclinic. Additionally, by identifying new photocatalytic products, rhodamine B degradation pathways involving N-deethylation and conjugated structure cleavage are proposed. The findings not only provide new insights into the structure–photoreactivity relationships in perovskite ferroelectric photocatalysts, but also have broad implications in perovskite-based water splitting and photovoltaics, among others.

  7. Analysis of the Phlebiopsis gigantea Genome, Transcriptome and Secretome Provides Insight into Its Pioneer Colonization Strategies of Wood

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hori, Chiaki; Ishida, Takuya; Igarashi, Kiyohiko; Samejima, Masahiro; Suzuki, Hitoshi; Master, Emma; Ferreira, Patricia; Ruiz-Dueñas, Francisco J.; Held, Benjamin; Canessa, Paulo; et al

    2014-12-04

    Collectively classified as white-rot fungi, certain basidiomycetes efficiently degrade the major structural polymers of wood cell walls. A small subset of these Agaricomycetes, exemplified by Phlebiopsis gigantea, is capable of colonizing freshly exposed conifer sapwood despite its high content of extractives, which retards the establishment of other fungal species. The mechanism(s) by which P. gigantea tolerates and metabolizes resinous compounds have not been explored. Here, we report the annotated P. gigantea genome and compare profiles of its transcriptome and secretome when cultured on freshcut versus solvent-extracted loblolly pine wood. The P. gigantea genome contains a conventional repertoire of hydrolase genesmore » involved in cellulose/hemicellulose degradation, whose patterns of expression were relatively unperturbed by the absence of extractives. The expression of genes typically ascribed to lignin degradation was also largely unaffected. In contrast, genes likely involved in the transformation and detoxification of wood extractives were highly induced in its presence. Their products included an ABC transporter, lipases, cytochrome P450s, glutathione S-transferase and aldehyde dehydrogenase. Other regulated genes of unknown function and several constitutively expressed genes are also likely involved in P. gigantea’s extractives metabolism. These results contribute to our fundamental understanding of pioneer colonization of conifer wood and provide insight into the diverse chemistries employed by fungi in carbon cycling processes.« less

  8. Insights into Regulated Ligand Binding Sites from the Structure of ZO-1 Src Homology 3-Guanylate Kinase Module

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lye, Ming F.; Fanning, Alan S.; Su, Ying; Anderson, James M.; Lavie, Arnon (UNC); (UIC)

    2010-11-09

    Tight junctions are dynamic components of epithelial and endothelial cells that regulate the paracellular transport of ions, solutes, and immune cells. The assembly and permeability of these junctions is dependent on the zonula occludens (ZO) proteins, members of the membrane-associated guanylate kinase homolog (MAGUK) protein family, which are characterized by a core Src homology 3 (SH3)-GUK module that coordinates multiple protein-protein interactions. The structure of the ZO-1 SH3-GUK domain confirms that the interdependent folding of the SH3 and GUK domains is a conserved feature of MAGUKs, but differences in the orientation of the GUK domains in three different MAGUKs reveal interdomain flexibility of the core unit. Using pull-down assays, we show that an effector loop, the U6 region in ZO-1, forms a novel intramolecular interaction with the core module. This interaction is divalent cation-dependent and overlaps with the binding site for the regulatory molecule calmodulin on the GUK domain. These findings provide insight into the previously observed ability of the U6 region to regulate TJ assembly in vivo and the structural basis for the complex protein interactions of the MAGUK family.

  9. Drilling Gives Insight

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    B, was conducted Feb. 2, 2011. Pollux ... 2013 PAGE 3 It was Dec. 12, 2012, or 121212 - a date that was as unique as was the first... chips and drinks for 5 to 225 employees. ...

  10. Insight From Efficiency Maine

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presents an in-depth look at Efficiency Maine's transition to weatherization financing, its PowerSaver program, and much more.

  11. Insights into the role of components of the tumor microenvironment in oral carcinoma call for new therapeutic approaches

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Salo, Tuula; Vered, Marilena; Bello, Ibrahim O.; Nyberg, Pia; Bitu, Carolina Cavalcante; Zlotogorski Hurvitz, Ayelet; Dayan, Dan

    2014-07-15

    The research on oral cancer has focused mainly on the cancer cells, their genetic changes and consequent phenotypic modifications. However, it is increasingly clear that the tumor microenvironment (TME) has been shown to be in a dynamic state of inter-relations with the cancer cells. The TME contains a variety of components including the non-cancerous cells (i.e., immune cells, resident fibroblasts and angiogenic vascular cells) and the ECM milieu [including fibers (mainly collagen and fibronectin) and soluble factors (i.e., enzymes, growth factors, cytokines and chemokines)]. Thus, it is currently assumed that TME is considered a part of the cancerous tissue and the functionality of its key components constitutes the setting on which the hallmarks of the cancer cells can evolve. Therefore, in terms of controlling a malignancy, one should control the growth, invasion and spread of the cancer cells through modifications in the TME components. This mini review focuses on the TME as a diagnostic approach and reports the recent insights into the role of different TME key components [such as carcinoma-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) and inflammation (CAI) cells, angiogenesis, stromal matrix molecules and proteases] in the molecular biology of oral carcinoma. Furthermore, the impact of TME components on clinical outcomes and the concomitant need for development of new therapeutic approaches will be discussed. - Highlights: Tumor depth and budding, hypoxia and TME cells associate with worse prognosis. Pro-tumoral CAFs and CAI cells aid proliferation, invasion and spread hypoxia. Some ECM-bound factors exert pro-angiogenic or pro-tumor activities. Tumor spread is greatly dependent on ECM proteolysis, mediated by TME cells. Direct targeting of TME components for treatment is still experimental.

  12. Revisiting Insights from Three Mile Island Unit 2 Postaccident Examinations and Evaluations in View of the Fukushima Daiichi Accident

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Joy Rempe; Mitchell Farmer; Michael Corradini; Larry Ott; Randall Gauntt; Dana Powers

    2012-11-01

    The Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) accident, which occurred on March 28, 1979, led industry and regulators to enhance strategies to protect against severe accidents in commercial nuclear power plants. Investigations in the years after the accident concluded that at least 45% of the core had melted and that nearly 19 tonnes of the core material had relocated to the lower head. Postaccident examinations indicate that about half of that material formed a solid layer near the lower head and above it was a layer of fragmented rubble. As discussed in this paper, numerous insights related to pressurized water reactor accident progression were gained from postaccident evaluations of debris, reactor pressure vessel (RPV) specimens, and nozzles taken from the RPV. In addition, information gleaned from TMI-2 specimen evaluations and available data from plant instrumentation were used to improve severe accident simulation models that form the technical basis for reactor safety evaluations. Finally, the TMI-2 accident led the nuclear community to dedicate considerable effort toward understanding severe accident phenomenology as well as the potential for containment failure. Because available data suggest that significant amounts of fuel heated to temperatures near melting, the events at Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3 offer an unexpected opportunity to gain similar understanding about boiling water reactor accident progression. To increase the international benefit from such an endeavor, we recommend that an international effort be initiated to (a) prioritize data needs; (b) identify techniques, samples, and sample evaluations needed to address each information need; and (c) help finance acquisition of the required data and conduct of the analyses.

  13. Genomic insights into the evolution of hybrid isoprenoid biosynthetic gene clusters in the MAR4 marine streptomycete clade

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Gallagher, Kelley A.; Jensen, Paul R.

    2015-11-17

    Background: Considerable advances have been made in our understanding of the molecular genetics of secondary metabolite biosynthesis. Coupled with increased access to genome sequence data, new insight can be gained into the diversity and distributions of secondary metabolite biosynthetic gene clusters and the evolutionary processes that generate them. Here we examine the distribution of gene clusters predicted to encode the biosynthesis of a structurally diverse class of molecules called hybrid isoprenoids (HIs) in the genus Streptomyces. These compounds are derived from a mixed biosynthetic origin that is characterized by the incorporation of a terpene moiety onto a variety of chemicalmore » scaffolds and include many potent antibiotic and cytotoxic agents. Results: One hundred and twenty Streptomyces genomes were searched for HI biosynthetic gene clusters using ABBA prenyltransferases (PTases) as queries. These enzymes are responsible for a key step in HI biosynthesis. The strains included 12 that belong to the ‘MAR4’ clade, a largely marine-derived lineage linked to the production of diverse HI secondary metabolites. We found ABBA PTase homologs in all of the MAR4 genomes, which averaged five copies per strain, compared with 21 % of the non-MAR4 genomes, which averaged one copy per strain. Phylogenetic analyses suggest that MAR4 PTase diversity has arisen by a combination of horizontal gene transfer and gene duplication. Furthermore, there is evidence that HI gene cluster diversity is generated by the horizontal exchange of orthologous PTases among clusters. Many putative HI gene clusters have not been linked to their secondary metabolic products, suggesting that MAR4 strains will yield additional new compounds in this structure class. Finally, we confirm that the mevalonate pathway is not always present in genomes that contain HI gene clusters and thus is not a reliable query for identifying strains with the potential to produce HI secondary metabolites. In conclusion: We found that marine-derived MAR4 streptomycetes possess a relatively high genetic potential for HI biosynthesis. The combination of horizontal gene transfer, duplication, and rearrangement indicate that complex evolutionary processes account for the high level of HI gene cluster diversity in these bacteria, the products of which may provide a yet to be defined adaptation to the marine environment.« less

  14. Insights into Stress Corrosion Cracking Mechanisms from High-Resolution Measurements of Crack-Tip Structures and Compositions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bruemmer, Stephen M.; Thomas, Larry E.

    2010-04-05

    The fundamental basis for mechanistic understanding and modeling of SCC remains in question for many systems. Specific mechanisms controlling SCC can vary with changes in alloy characteristics, applied/residual stress or environmental conditions. The local crack electrochemistry, crack-tip mechanics and material metallurgy are the main factors controlling crack growth. These localized properties are difficult or impossible to measure in active cracks. Nevertheless, it is essential to quantitatively interrogate these crack-tip conditions if mechanistic understanding is to be obtained. A major recent advance has been the ability to investigate SCC cracks and crack tips using high-resolution ATEM techniques. ATEM enables the characterization of SCC cracks including trapped tip solution chemistries, corrosion product/film compositions and structures, and elemental composition gradients and defect microstructures along the crack walls and at the crack tip. A wide variety of methods for imaging and analyses at resolutions down to the atomic level can be used to examine the crack and corrosion film characteristics. Surface films and reaction layers have been examined by cross-sectional TEM techniques, but little work had been conducted on environmentally induced internal cracks until that of Lewis and co-workers [1-3] and the current authors [4-17]. This capability combined with modern ATEM techniques has enabled exciting new insights into corrosion processes occurring at buried interfaces and is being used to identify mechanisms controlling IGSCC in boiling water reactor (BWR) and pressurized water reactor (PWR) components. The objective of this paper is to summarize certain results focused on IGSCC of Fe- base and Ni-base stainless alloys in high-temperature water environments. Representative crack-tip examples will be shown to illustrate specific aspects that are characteristic of SCC in the material/environment combinations. Differences and similarities in crack-tip structures- chemistries will be highlighted comparing Fe-base 316/304SS to Ni-base alloy 600/182 and for tests in oxidizing versus hydrogenated water environments.

  15. INSIGHTS INTO PRE-ENRICHMENT OF STAR CLUSTERS AND SELF-ENRICHMENT OF DWARF GALAXIES FROM THEIR INTRINSIC METALLICITY DISPERSIONS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leaman, Ryan

    2012-12-01

    Star clusters are known to have smaller intrinsic metallicity spreads than dwarf galaxies due to their shorter star formation timescales. Here we use individual spectroscopic [Fe/H] measurements of stars in 19 Local Group dwarf galaxies, 13 Galactic open clusters, and 49 globular clusters to show that star cluster and dwarf galaxy linear metallicity distributions are binomial in form, with all objects showing strong correlations between their mean linear metallicity Z-bar and intrinsic spread in metallicity {sigma}(Z){sup 2}. A plot of {sigma}(Z){sup 2} versus Z-bar shows that the correlated relationships are offset for the dwarf galaxies from the star clusters. The common binomial nature of these linear metallicity distributions can be explained with a simple inhomogeneous chemical evolution model, where the star cluster and dwarf galaxy behavior in the {sigma}(Z){sup 2}- Z-bar diagram is reproduced in terms of the number of enrichment events, covering fraction, and intrinsic size of the enriched regions. The inhomogeneity of the self-enrichment sets the slope for the observed dwarf galaxy {sigma}(Z){sup 2}- Z-bar correlation. The offset of the star cluster sequence from that of the dwarf galaxies is due to pre-enrichment, and the slope of the star cluster sequence represents the remnant signature of the self-enriched history of their host galaxies. The offset can be used to separate star clusters from dwarf galaxies without a priori knowledge of their luminosity or dynamical mass. The application of the inhomogeneous model to the {sigma}(Z){sup 2}- Z-bar relationship provides a numerical formalism to connect the self-enrichment and pre-enrichment between star clusters and dwarf galaxies using physically motivated chemical enrichment parameters. Therefore we suggest that the {sigma}(Z){sup 2}- Z-bar relationship can provide insight into what drives the efficiency of star formation and chemical evolution in galaxies, and is an important prediction for galaxy simulation models to reproduce.

  16. Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

    2014-07-25

    We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is delayed and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

  17. Short-term energy outlook, April 1999

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1999-04-01

    The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from April 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the first quarter 1999, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the April 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated forecasting system (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 25 figs., 19 tabs.

  18. Short-term energy outlook, quarterly projections, first quarter 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-01-01

    The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1998 through the fourth quarter of 1999. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the first quarter 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 24 figs., 19 tabs.

  19. Short-term energy outlook, January 1999

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1999-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares the Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from January 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the fourth quarter 1998, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the January 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  20. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    This is a positive development in terms of energy consumption, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. Report: ...