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1

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

(83/3Q) (83/3Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook iuarterly Projections August 1983 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. 20585 t rt jrt- .ort- iort- iort- iort- nort- lort- '.ort- ort- Tt- .-m .erm -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term Term .-Term -Term xrm Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy -OJ.UUK Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term

2

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook July 2013 1 July 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Highlights The U.S. Energy Information ...

3

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Short Short- -Term Energy Outlook Term Energy Outlook Chart Gallery for Chart Gallery for November...

4

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3 3 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook April 2003 Overview World Oil Markets. Crude oil prices fell sharply at the onset of war in Iraq, but the initial declines probably overshot levels that we consider to be generally consistent with fundamental factors in the world oil market. Thus, while near-term price averages are likely to be below our previous projections, the baseline outlook for crude oil prices (while generally lower) is not drastically different and includes an average for spot West Texas Intermediate (WTI) that is close to $30 per barrel in 2003 (Figure 1). The mix of uncertainties related to key oil production areas has changed since last month, as Venezuelan production has accelerated beyond previous estimates while Nigerian output has been reduced due to internal conflict.

5

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

DOE/EIA-0202(98/3Q) Distribution Category UC-950 Short-Term Energy Outlook July 1998 Energy Information Administration Office of Energy Markets and End Use

6

EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels OutlookWinter Fuels Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Home heating oil retail price includes taxes. 16 Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2012 Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 10, 2012.

7

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2005 Short-Term Energy Outlook - Regional Enhancements Starting with this edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA is introducing regional projections (the scope of which will vary by fuel) of energy prices, consumption, and production. The addition of regional data and forecasts will allow us to examine regional fuel demands and prices, regional fuel inventory trends, the interaction between regional electricity demand shifts, and regional electric generating capacity. This edition of STEO includes regional projections for heating oil, propane, and gasoline prices and natural gas and electricity demand and prices. Over the next 2 months, we will include additional regional

8

Model documentation of the Short-Term Coal Analysis System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The short-term coal analysis system (SCOAL) is used by the Data Analysis and Forecasting Branch (DAFB) as an analytic aid to support preparation of short-term projections of bituminous coal and lignite production at the state level, and anthracite production, domestic imports of coal, and domestic and export demand for US coal at the national level. A description of SCOAL is presented which includes a general overview of the model and its analytical capabilities. (DMC)

Not Available

1983-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

User's Guide Short-Term Energy Model  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The personal computer version of the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short Term Energy Outlook, known simply as the Short-Term Energy Model, is a modeling system used to forecast future values for key energy variables. It replicates in a Windows environment most features of EIA's mainframe-based short-term modeling system, and adds capabilities that allow the user substitute assumptions to calculate alternative projections.

Information Center

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

EIA Short -Term and Winter Fuels Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2008 NASEO 2008/09 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference October 7, 2008 Washington, DC Howard Gruenspecht Acting ...

11

Short Term Energy Outlook - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Projections: EIA, Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System database, and Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels (hydroelectric and nuclear).

12

Short Term Energy Outlook - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook—February 2008 2 Global Petroleum OPEC left production targets unchanged at its February 1st ...

13

Short Term Energy Outlook - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook—March 2008 2 Diesel prices are projected to show larger gains in 2008, averaging $3.45 per

14

Short Term Energy Outlook - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook—January 2009 2 Global Petroleum Overview. The downward trend in oil prices continued in ...

15

Short Term Energy Outlook - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook—December 2008 2 Global Petroleum Overview The increasing likelihood of a prolonged global ...

16

Short-Term Energy Outlook- May 2003  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3 3 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook May 2003 Overview World Oil Markets. The April 24 meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised official quotas for members (excluding Iraq) by 0.9 million barrels per day from the previous (suspended) quota to 25.4 million barrels per day. OPEC members also sought tighter compliance with quotas, calling for production cuts of 2 million barrels per day from April levels. We expect these measures to result in an average total OPEC (including Iraq) crude oil production rate of about 26.7 million barrels per day in the second and third quarters. This production level is not significantly different from our base case assumptions in last month's report. Individual OPEC country shares of these output levels will depend upon the speed with which

17

Short-Term Energy Outlook January 2014  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Chart Gallery for January 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 West Texas...

18

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook EIA Home > Natural Gas > Natural Gas Weekly Update Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook This summary is based on the most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook released May 6, 2002. EIA projects that natural gas wellhead prices will average $2.73 per MMBtu in 2002 compared with about $4.00 per MMBtu last year (Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2002). This projection reflects the sharp increases in spot and near-term futures prices in recent weeks. Average wellhead prices have risen 38 percent from $2.14 per MMBtu in February to an estimated $2.96 in April. Spot prices at the Henry Hub have increased to an even greater extent, rising more than $1.50 per MMBtu since early February. The upward price trend reflects a number of influences, such as unusual weather patterns that have led to increased gas consumption, and tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices. Other factors contributing to the recent price surge include the strengthening economy, the increased capacity and planned new capacity of gas-burning power plants, and concerns about the decline in gas-directed drilling.

19

Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

Not Available

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Global large scale penetration of wind energy is accompanied by significant challenges due to the intermittent and unstable nature of wind. High quality short-term wind speed forecasting is critical to reliable and secure power system operations. This paper gives an overview of the current status of worldwide wind power developments and future trends, and reviews some statistical short-term wind speed forecasting models, including traditional time series models and advanced space-time statistical models. It also discusses the evaluation of forecast accuracy, in particular the need for realistic loss functions. New challenges in wind speed forecasting regarding ramp events and offshore wind farms are also presented.

Xinxin Zhu; Marc G. Genton

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "includes short-term deviations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) quarterly forecasts of short-term energy supply, demand, and prices are revised in January, April, July, and October for publication in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes previous forecast errors, compares recent projections by other forecasters, and discusses current topics of the short-term energy markets (see Short- Term Energy Outlook: Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202). The principal users of the Outlook are managers and energy analysts in private industry and government. The projections in this volume extend through the fourth quarter of 1990. The forecasts are produced using the Short-term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model uses two principal driving variables: a macroeconomic forecast and world oil price assumptions. Macroeconomic forecasts produced by data Resources, Inc., (DRI), are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic forecast. EIA's Oil Market Simulation Model is used to project world oil prices. 20 refs., 17 figs., 16 tabs.

1989-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

22

Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections  

SciTech Connect

Energy Information Administration (EIA) quarterly forecasts of short-term energy supply, demand, and prices are revised in February, May, August, and November for publication in the Short-Term Energy Outlook, quarterly projections. Methodology volumes, which are published with the May and November issues, contain descriptions of the forecasting system and detailed analyses of the current issues that affect EIA's short-term energy forecasts. The forecasts are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). Two principal driving variables are used in the STIFS model: the macroeconomic forecast and the world oil price assumptions. The macroeconomic forecasts, which are produced by Data Resources, Inc., (DRI), are adjusted by EIA in cases where EIA projections of the world price of crude oil differ from DRI estimates. EIA's Oil Market Simulation Model is used to project the world oil prices. The three projections for petroleum supply and demand are based on low, medium, and high economic growth scenarios which incorporate high, medium, and low crude oil price trajectories. In general, the following discussion of the forecast refers to the medium, or base case, scenario. Total petroleum consumption sensitivities, using varying assumptions about the level of price, weather, and economic activity are tabulated.

1983-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

Short Term Energy Outlook - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The forecasts were generated by simulation of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System. 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 Avg.02-07 07-08 08-09 % Change Natural Gas

24

Electricity storage for short term power system service (Smart...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

storage for short term power system service (Smart Grid Project) Jump to: navigation, search Project Name Electricity storage for short term power system service Country Denmark...

25

Implications of Wide-Area Geographic Diversity for Short- Term...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Implications of Wide-Area Geographic Diversity for Short- Term Variability of Solar Power Title Implications of Wide-Area Geographic Diversity for Short- Term Variability of Solar...

26

Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We argue that emerging economies borrow short term due to the high risk premium charged by international capital markets on long-term debt. First, we present a model where the debt maturity structure is the outcome of a risk sharing problem between the government and bondholders. By issuing long-term debt, the government lowers the probability of a liquidity crisis, transferring risk to bondholders. In equilibrium, this risk is reflected in a higher risk premium and borrowing cost. Therefore, the government faces a trade-off between safer long-term borrowing and cheaper short-term debt. Second, we construct a new database of sovereign bond prices and issuance. We show that emerging economies pay a positive term premium (a higher risk premium on long-term bonds than on short-term bonds). During crises, the term premium increases, with issuance shifting toward shorter maturities. This suggests that changes in bondholders ’ risk aversion are important to understand emerging market crises.

unknown authors

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

27

DOE/EIA-0202(88/3Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3Q) 3Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections July 1988 Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy . oi Lor L- . ; Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term ; Short-Term . Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term . Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term ; Short-Term : Short-Term . Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term . Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term ; Short-Term . Short-Term Ent, Energ,, Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Ene r F- Ou Out, Outlc Outloc Outloo. Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlool Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlool

28

DOE/EIA-0202(87/3Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3Q) 3Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections July 1987 aergy i . Energy ' Energy Energy Energy i Energy i . Energy . Energy Energy Energy . Energy . Energy Energy Energy Energy i Energy . Energy . Energy Energy Energy Energy . Energy "nergy ; Short-Term : Short-Term . Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term ; Short-Term : Short-Term ; Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term ; Short-Term ; Short-Term ; Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term ; Short-Term ; Short-Term ; Short-Term ; Short-Term : Short-Term : Short-Term ; Short-Term : Short-Term ; Short-Term ; Short-Term ; Short-T'- Ent. Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energv Ene1" F- Ou Out, Outlc Outloc.

29

DOE/EIA-0202(88/2Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2Q) 2Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections April 1988 aergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy E nergy Energy Energy Energy Energy '? nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook '"""look Short-Terni Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term

30

Short-Term Energy Outlook Figures  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Independent Statistics & Analysis" Independent Statistics & Analysis" ,"U.S. Energy Information Administration" ,"Short-Term Energy Outlook Figures, December 2013" ,"U.S. Prices" ,,"West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price" ,,"U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices" ,,"U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices" ,,"Henry Hub Natural Gas Price" ,,"U.S. Natural Gas Prices" ,"World Liquid Fuels" ,,"World Liquid Fuels Production and Consumption Balance" ,,"Estimated Unplanned Crude Oil Production Outages Among OPEC Producers" ,,"Estimated Unplanned Crude Oil Production Disruptions Among non-OPEC Producers" ,,"World Liquid Fuels Consumption" ,,"World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth"

31

Short-term energy outlook, July 1998  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares The Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly for distribution on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. In addition, printed versions of the report are available to subscribers in January, April, July and October. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from July 1998 through December 1999. Values for second quarter of 1998 data, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the July 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

NONE

1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

Short-term energy outlook, January 1999  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares the Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from January 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the fourth quarter 1998, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the January 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

NONE

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

August 2012 Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

August 2012 1 August 2012 1 August 2012 Short-Term Energy Outlook Highlights  EIA projects that the Brent crude oil spot price will average about $103 per barrel during the second half of 2012, about $3.50 per barrel higher than in last month's Outlook. The forecast Brent crude oil spot price falls to an average of $100 per barrel in 2013. The projected West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price discount to Brent crude oil narrows from about $14 in the third quarter of 2012 to $9 by late 2013. These price forecasts assume that world oil-consumption-weighted real gross domestic product (GDP), which increased by 3.0 percent in 2011, grows by 2.8 percent in 2012 and 2.9

34

Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 June 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Highlights * After increasing to $119 per barrel in early February 2013, the Brent crude oil spot price fell to a low of $97 per barrel in mid-April and then recovered to an average of $103 per barrel in May. EIA expects that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $102 per barrel over the second half of 2013, and $100 per barrel in 2014. * EIA expects the price of regular gasoline will average $3.53 per gallon over the summer driving season (April through September). The annual average regular gasoline retail price is projected to decline from $3.63 per gallon in 2012 to $3.49 per gallon in 2013 and to $3.37 per gallon in 2014. Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, and the current values of

35

Short Term Energy Outlook, February 2003  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3 3 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook February 2003 Overview World Oil Markets. World oil markets will likely remain tight through most of 2003, as petroleum inventories and global spare production capacity continue to dwindle amid blasts of cold weather and constrained output from Venezuela. OPEC efforts to increase output to make up for lower Venezuela output has reduced global spare production capacity to only 2 million barrels per day, leaving little room to make up for unexpected supply or demand surprises. Meanwhile, the average West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price increased by $3.50 to $33 per barrel from December to January (Figure 1). For the year 2003, WTI oil prices are expected to remain over $30 per barrel, even though Venezuelan output appears to be moving toward normal sooner than expected. Also,

36

Berkeley Lab: Nearby Short-Term Accommodations  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Accommodations Accommodations Visitor Information Maps and Directions to the Lab Offsite Shuttle Bus Service Bay Area Mass Transit Information Site Access Parking Permits and Gate Passes UC Berkeley Campus Map Nearby Short-Term Accommodations Guest House Berkeley Lab Guest House - The Berkeley Lab guest house is conveniently located on the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory campus and features 57 tastefully appointed guest rooms, many with spectacular views of the San Francisco bay, skyline, and City of Berkeley. The guest house is only a few minutes away from the University of California Berkeley Campus and the dynamic Berkeley community itself. It is available to visiting researchers and those conducting business with the University. The Faculty Club * U.C. Campus

37

Short Term Energy Outlook ,November 2002  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

November 2002 November 2002 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook November 2002 Overview World Oil Markets: During the past 3-4 months, OPEC 10 production has risen more quickly than projected, thus reducing upward pressure on prices. More specifically, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price averaged $28.84 in October, about $6.70 per barrel above the year-ago level (Figure 1), the WTI average price for fourth quarter 2002 is now projected to soften to $28.20, which is about $2 per barrel below our fourth-quarter projection from last month. Meanwhile, OECD inventory levels, which are now approaching 5 -year lows, should begin to rise over the next few months as additional supplies reach markets, and return to the middle of their observed range by spring.

38

Short-Term Energy Outlook July 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 July 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Highlights  The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $102 per barrel over the second half of 2013, and $100 per barrel in 2014. This forecast assumes there are no disruptions to energy markets arising from the recent unrest in Egypt. After increasing to $119 per barrel in early February 2013, the Brent crude oil spot price fell to a low of $97 per barrel in mid-April and then recovered to an average of $103 per barrel in May and June, about the same as its average over the same two-month period last year.  The discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to Brent crude oil, which averaged $18 per barrel in 2012 and increased to a monthly average of more than $20 per barrel in

39

Short Term Energy Outlook, March 2003  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3 3 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook March 2003 Overview World Oil Markets. February crude oil prices moved higher than expected pushed by fears of a war in Iraq, low inventories, slow recovery in Venezuelan exports, continued cold weather and sharply higher natural gas prices in the United States. West Texas Intermediate prices averaged close to $36 for the month (Figure 1), a level not seen since October 1990. Oil inventories continued lower through the month resulting in a cumulative reduction in total commercial stocks of 101 million barrels since September 30, 2002, the beginning of the heating season. Total OECD inventories reached an estimated 2,424 million barrels at the end of February, which would be the lowest level since

40

Short Term Energy Outlook ,October 2002  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

October 2002 October 2002 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook October 2002 Overview World Oil Markets: Continued high oil prices are the result of declining OECD commercial oil inventories, worries over a potential clash with Iraq, and OPEC's decision to leave production quotas unchanged at its September meeting. Solid growth in world oil demand this winter (and for 2003 as a whole) is likely to tighten world oil markets and reduce commercial oil inventories. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price averaged $29.75 in September, about $3.50 per barrel above the year-ago level and about $10 per barrel above a low point seen last January. Home Heating Costs Outlook: While fuel supplies should remain sufficient under normal weather

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "includes short-term deviations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Short Term Energy Outlook, December 2002  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 2002 December 2002 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook December 2002 Overview World Oil Markets: Average crude oil prices fell by about $2.50 per barrel between October and November in response to continued high production levels from OPEC 10 countries (Figure 1). However, by the end of November oil prices had risen to end-October levels as concerns over the situations in Iraq and Venezuela pushed prices up. Oil inventories, which are currently in the lower portion of the previous 5-year range, are poised to rise to more comfortable levels soon if OPEC output continues at or above current levels. OPEC is considering cutbacks from current levels. Heating Fuels Update. As in October, weather was m uch colder than normal in November, boosting

42

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Short-Term Energy Outlook Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook: EIA projects that natural gas prices will remain relatively high through the rest of 2003, with...

43

Short-Term Energy Carbon Dioxide Emissions Forecasts August 2009  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Supplement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook. Short-term projections for U.S. carbon dioxide emissions of the three fossil fuels: coal, natural gas, and petroleum.

Information Center

2009-08-11T23:59:59.000Z

44

Short-term energy outlook quarterly projections. First quarter 1994  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short- term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets.

Not Available

1994-02-07T23:59:59.000Z

45

Short-term energy outlook, April 1999  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from April 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the first quarter 1999, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the April 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated forecasting system (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 25 figs., 19 tabs.

NONE

1999-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

46

STEMS Demo Software, Version 1.5: Short-Term Electricity Market Simulator Demo  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Short-Term Electricity Market Simulator (STEMS) Demo software version 1.5 allows the user to study the realistic behavior of a short-term electricity market using a detailed model of the power system and realistic bidding and market clearing mechanisms to emulate the behavior of various market designs, including the FERC Standard Market Design and the California MD02 design. The STEMS Demo software version 1.5 allows the user to study a short-term electricity market. It combines the functionality of ...

2003-12-23T23:59:59.000Z

47

Short-Term Test Results: Multifamily Home Energy Efficiency Retrofit  

SciTech Connect

Multifamily deep energy retrofits (DERs) represent great potential for energy savings, while also providing valuable insights on research-generated efficiency measures, cost-effectiveness metrics, and risk factor strategies for the multifamily housing industry. The Bay Ridge project is comprised of a base scope retrofit with a goal of achieving 30% savings (relative to pre-retrofit), and a DER scope with a goal of 50% savings (relative to pre-retrofit). The base scope has been applied to the entire complex, except for one 12-unit building which underwent the DER scope. Findings from the implementation, commissioning, and short-term testing at Bay Ridge include air infiltration reductions of greater than 60% in the DER building; a hybrid heat pump system with a Savings to Investment Ratio (SIR) > 1 (relative to a high efficiency furnace) which also provides the resident with added incentive for energy savings; and duct leakage reductions of > 60% using an aerosolized duct sealing approach. Despite being a moderate rehab instead of a gut rehab, the Bay Ridge DER is currently projected to achieve energy savings ? 50% compared to pre-retrofit, and the short-term testing supports this estimate.

Lyons, J.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, Third quarter 1994  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202). The feature article for this issue is Demand, Supply and Price Outlook for Reformulated Gasoline, 1995.

1994-08-02T23:59:59.000Z

49

ShortShort--Term Energy Outlook Term Energy Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis ShortShort--Term Energy Outlook Term Energy Outlook Chart Gallery for Chart Gallery for ...

50

EIA Short-Term and Winter Fuels Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Washington, DC, October 12, 2011 Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011 History : Heating Oil Howard Gruenspecht, Winter Fuels Outlook 14

51

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy-weighted industrial...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy-weighted industrial production indices December 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy...

52

Summary Short-Term Petroleum and Natural Gas Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Table of Contents. Summary Short-Term Petroleum. and Natural Gas Outlook. WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval. Real and Nominal Crude Oil Prices

53

EIA Short-Term and Winter Fuels Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

EIA Short-Term and Winter Fuels Outlook ... March 31) for fossil fuels but not electricity . Percent change in fuel bills from last winter (forecast) Fuel .

54

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Short-Term Energy Outlook › ... Search EIA .gov. A-Z Index; A-Z ... Arizona's 250-megawatt Solana generation station became the first major solar ...

55

Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2002 Overview  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Forecasting System database, and Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook -- September 2002 10

56

Short Term Energy Outlook and Summer Fuels Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Projections: EIA, Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System database, and Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels (hydroelectric and nuclear).

57

Short-Term Energy Outlook - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and

58

Short Term Energy Outlook July - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System and by EIA’s office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels (hydroelectric and nuclear).

59

Short-Term Energy Outlook - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2013 2 Projected Winter Fuel Expenditures by Fuel and Region

60

Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly/Biennial Updates  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Short-term forecasts of energy supply, demand, and price projections through 2001 for U.S. and International oil forecasts

Joe Ayoub

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "includes short-term deviations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly/Biennial Updates  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Short-term forecasts of energy supply, demand, and price projections through 2001 for U.S. and International oil forecasts

2013-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

62

Short-Term Energy Outlook and Winter Fuels Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Short-Term Energy Outlook and Winter Fuels Outlook For NASEO Winter Fuels Outlook Conference November 1, 2013| Washington, DC By Adam Sieminski, Administrator EIA works closely...

63

Short Term Energy Outlook Supplement - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement – June 2007 4 Figure 2. Major Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, 1995?2006

64

DOE/EIA-0202(87/2Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2Q) 2Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections April 1987 . m erm Term t-Term rt-Term jrt-Term ort-Term iort-Term ion-Term ion-Term lort-Term lort-Term ort-Term ort-Term Tt-Term ".-Term -Term Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term

65

Short-term energy outlook annual supplement, 1993  

SciTech Connect

The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts.

NONE

1993-08-06T23:59:59.000Z

66

Short-term energy outlook, annual supplement 1994  

SciTech Connect

The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (Supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts.

Not Available

1994-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

67

DOE/EIA-0202(84/1Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1Q) 1Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections February 1984 Published: March 1984 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t rt jrt- .ort- iort- iort- .iort- iort- lort- Short-Term' Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term

68

January 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

(STEO) (STEO)  This edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook is the first to include forecasts for 2014.  EIA expects that the Brent crude oil spot price, which averaged $112 per barrel in 2012, will fall to an average of $105 per barrel in 2013 and $99 per barrel in 2014. The projected discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to Brent, which averaged $18 per barrel in 2012, falls to an average of $16 per barrel in 2013 and $8 per barrel in 2014, as planned new pipeline capacity lowers the cost of moving Mid-continent crude oil to the Gulf Coast refining centers.  EIA expects that falling crude prices will help national average regular gasoline retail prices

69

DOE/EIA-0202(88/1Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8/1Q) 8/1Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections January 1988 .m erm Term t-Term rt-Term jrt-Term ort-Term ion-Term ion-Term tort-Term jort-Term ion-Term ort-Term ore-Term rt-Term 't-Term -Term Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy "^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook ~">Mook Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term

70

Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, Third quarter 1995  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent projections with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1995 through the fourth quarter of 1996. Values for the second quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates.

NONE

1995-08-02T23:59:59.000Z

71

Short-term CO? abatement in the European power sector  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper focuses on the possibilities for short term abatement in response to a CO2 price through fuel switching in the European power sector. The model E-Simulate is used to simulate the electricity generation in Europe ...

Delarue, Erik D.

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

72

Short-Term Climate Predictions for Water Management  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-term climate predictions (two weeks to two years) have many applications in operation of water supply and flood control facilities. They can influence use of water for irrigation, hydroelectric power production, flood control operation, ...

Charles A. McCullough

1983-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

73

Short-Term Energy Outlook - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2013 2 Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels . The recent increase in crude oil and liquid fuels ...

74

Short-Term Forecast Validation of Six Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The short-term forecast accuracy of six different forecast models over the western United States is described for January, February, and March 1996. Four of the models are operational products from the National Centers for Environmental ...

Bryan G. White; Jan Paegle; W. James Steenburgh; John D. Horel; Robert T. Swanson; Louis K. Cook; Daryl J. Onton; John G. Miles

1999-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

75

Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) Overview  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) utilizes estimated econometric relationships for demand, inventories and prices to forecast energy market outcomes across key sectors and selected regions throughout the United States.

Information Center

2009-04-16T23:59:59.000Z

76

Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2013  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2013 1 October 2013 Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook (STEO) Highlights EIA projects average U.S. household expenditures for natural...

77

Short-Term Climate Extremes: Prediction Skill and Predictability  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts for extremes in short-term climate (monthly means) are examined to understand the current prediction capability and potential predictability. This study focuses on 2-m surface temperature and precipitation extremes over North and South ...

Emily J. Becker; Huug van den Dool; Malaquias Peña

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

78

Wind Power Integration: Smoothing Short-Term Power Fluctuations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

With the rapid growth of wind power generation, utility systems are beginning to feel the intermittent and variable nature of these wind resources in electricity transmission and distribution system operations. Both short-term power fluctuations resulting from gusty winds and longer term variations resulting from diurnal wind speed variations and shifting weather patterns can affect utility power delivery as well as grid operations. This report addresses the characteristics of short-term power fluctuatio...

2005-04-12T23:59:59.000Z

79

Process Deviation  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

0 Process Deviation 11_0304 Page 1 of 6 0 Process Deviation 11_0304 Page 1 of 6 EOTA - Business Process Document Title: Process Deviation Document Number: P-010 Rev 11-0304 Document Owner: Elizabeth Sousa Backup Owner: Melissa Otero Approver(s): Melissa Otero Parent Document: Q-001, Quality Manual Notify of Changes: EOTA Employees Referenced Document(s): F-013 Process Deviation Form, P-008 Corrective/Preventive Action, F-014 Process Deviation Log, ADMP-001 Procurement Process P-010 Process Deviation 11_0304 Page 2 of 6 Revision History: Rev. Description of Change A Initial Release 08_0822 Process assigned to new owner. Process and flowchart modified to require completion of all items on F-013. 09_0122 Process and flowchart modified to reflect process modifications.

80

Short-term energy outlook: Annual supplement, 1987  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes forecasts of short-term energy supply, demand, and prices in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). This volume, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Annual Supplement, (Supplement) discusses major changes in the forecasting methodology, analyzes previous forecast errors, and examines current issues that affect EIA's short-term energy forecasts. The principal users of the Supplement are managers and energy analysts in private industry and government. Chapter 2 evaluates the accuracy of previous short-term energy forecasts and the major assumptions underlying these forecasts published in the last 13 issues of the Outlook. Chapter 3 compares the EIA's present energy projections with past projections and with recent projections made by other forecasting groups. Chapter 4 analyzes the 1986 increase in residual fuel oil demand after 8 consecutive years of decline. Sectoral analysis shows where and why this increase occurred. Chapter 5 discusses the methodology, estimation, and forecasts of fossil fuel shares used in the generation of electricity. Chapter 6 presents an update of the methodology used to forecast natural gas demand, with an emphasis on sectoral disaggregation. Chapter 7 compares the current use of generation data as a representation of short-term electricity demand with proposed total and sectoral sales equations. 8 refs., 7 figs., 63 tabs.

1987-12-11T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "includes short-term deviations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

DOE/EIA-0202(84/2QH Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2QH 2QH Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections May 1984 Published: June 1984 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t rt jrt .ort lort .iort .iort- iort- iort- '.ort- ort- .m .erm Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term i-Term rTerm -Term xrm uergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short-Tern Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term

82

DOE/EIA-0202(85/2Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2Q) 2Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook amm Quarterly Projections April 1985 Published: May 1985 Energy Information Administration Washington, D C t rt jrt .ort lort .iort iort iort lort '.ort ort .erm -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term xrm nergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term

83

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

prices will remain relatively high during the storage refill season (April through October) and the rest of 2004. Wellhead prices are expected to average $4.87 per MMBtu in April and May, $4.71 from June through October, and $5.12 for November and December (Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2004). Spot prices during the storage refill months will likely average $5.23 per MMBtu, virtually the same as the average price ($5.22) this past heating season. Overall in 2004, spot prices are expected to average $5.31 per MMBtu, slightly less than the 2003 price ($5.35), while wellhead prices will average about $4.90. In 2005, natural gas spot prices will likely average about $5.25 per MMBtu, under the assumption that domestic supply can continue to grow by about 1 percent per year. Total available supply (including imports and storage inventories) is expected to increase to 22.31 Tcf in 2004 compared with 21.78 Tcf in 2003. Storage stocks at the end of the traditional heating season (March 31) were about 6 percent less than the 5-year average but nearly 50 percent more than year-earlier levels.

84

Evaluation of a short-term residential building test method  

SciTech Connect

The purpose of this project is to evaluate the effectiveness of an energy performance analysis methodology developed by the Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI). The methodology (STEM/PSTAR) uses data collected from short-term tests conducted over a 3-day period as inputs to a model for predicting long-term performance. Under subcontract to GEOMET, SERI performed the tests on GEOMET's two research houses in Gaithersburg, Maryland, and in a blind test, predicted the heating load and fuel use for a historical period for which detailed monitoring data were available. The predicted heating load and fuel usage were compared to the actual heating load and fuel usage for the period. STEM/PSTAR predictions of heating load fuel usage agreed quite well with the measured data. The predicted heating load using the STEM/PSTAR methodology was within 1 percent of the measured heating load. STEM/PSTAR tended to overpredict fuel usage by about 10 percent. Potential applications of the method include the evaluation of demand-site management technologies, new home energy performance evaluation and heating system performance evaluation.

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections. Second quarter 1995  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent projections with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the second quarter of 1995 through the fourth quarter of 1996. Values for the first quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled into the second quarter 1995 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service.

NONE

1995-05-02T23:59:59.000Z

86

Short-Term Energy Outlook, Annual Supplement 1994  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4) 4) Distribution Category UC-950 Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement 1994 Energy Information Administration Office of Energy Markets and End Use U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization. Energy Information Administration/ Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement 1994 ii Contacts Contacts The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use (EMEU). General questions concerning the content of the report may be directed to W. Calvin Kilgore (202/586-1617),

87

Summary Short-Term Petroleum and Natural Gas Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Short-Term Petroleum and Natural Gas Outlook Short-Term Petroleum and Natural Gas Outlook 1/12/01 Click here to start Table of Contents Summary Short-Term Petroleum. and Natural Gas Outlook WTI Crude Oil Price: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval Real and Nominal Crude Oil Prices OPEC Crude Oil Production 1999-2001 Total OECD Oil Stocks* U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Outlook U.S. Distillate Inventory Outlook Distillate Stocks Are Important Part of East Coast Winter Supply Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices Consumer Winter Heating Costs U.S. Total Gasoline Inventory Outlook Retail Motor Gasoline Prices* U.S. Propane Total Stocks Average Weekly Propane Spot Prices Current Natural Gas Spot Prices: Well Above the Recent Price Range Natural Gas Spot Prices: Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval Working Gas in Storage (Percentage Difference fron Previous 5-Year Average)

88

Model documentation report: Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Short- Term Hydroelectric Generation Model (STHGM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on the model structure. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with the Energy Information Administration`s (AYE) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, Section 57.b.2). The STHGM performs a short-term (18 to 27- month) forecast of hydroelectric generation in the United States using an autoregressive integrated moving average (UREMIA) time series model with precipitation as an explanatory variable. The model results are used as input for the short-term Energy Outlook.

Not Available

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

89

Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement 1995  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5) 5) Distribution Category UC-950 Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement 1995 Energy Information Administration Office of Energy Markets and End Use U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization. Energy Information Administration/ Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement 1995 ii Contacts Contacts The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use (EMEU). General questions concerning the content of the report may be directed to W. Calvin Kilgore (202/586-1617),

90

Electricity storage for short term power system service (Smart Grid  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

storage for short term power system service (Smart Grid storage for short term power system service (Smart Grid Project) Jump to: navigation, search Project Name Electricity storage for short term power system service Country Denmark Coordinates 56.26392°, 9.501785° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":56.26392,"lon":9.501785,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

91

Can Fully Accounting for Clouds in Data Assimilation Improve Short-Term Forecasts by Global Models?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper explores the degree to which short-term forecasts with global models might be improved if clouds were fully included in a data assimilation system, so that observations of clouds affected all parts of the model state and cloud ...

Robert Pincus; Robert J. Patrick Hofmann; Jeffrey L. Anderson; Kevin Raeder; Nancy Collins; Jeffrey S. Whitaker

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

Research on Short-term Load Forecasting of the Thermoelectric Boiler Based on a Dynamic RBF Neural Network  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

As thermal inertia is the key factor for the lag of thermoelectric utility regulation, it becomes very important to forecast its short-term load according to running parameters. In this paper, dynamic radial basis function (RBF) neural network is proposed based on the RBF neural network with the associated parameters of sample deviation and partial sample deviation, which are defined for the purpose of effective judgment of new samples. Also, in order to forecast the load of sample with large deviation, sensitivity coefficients of input layer is given in this paper. To validate this model, an experiment is performed on a thermoelectric plant, and the experimental result indicates that the network can be put into extensive use for short-term load forecasting of thermoelectric utility.

Dai, W.; Zou, P.; Yan, C.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

Short-term energy outlook: Annual supplement 1989  

SciTech Connect

This Supplement is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook, Quarterly Projections (Outlook). The purpose is to review the accuracy of the forecasts presented in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts. A brief description of the content of each chapter follows below: Chapter 2 evaluates the accuracy of the short-term energy forecasts published in the last 6 issues of the Outlook, for 1988/1989. Chapter 3 discusses the economics of the petrochemical feedstock market, and describes a new model which more fully captures the determinants of feedstock demand. Chapter 4 examines present and proposed new methods of forecasting short-term natural gas prices at the wellhead and spot prices. Chapter 5 discusses the modeling of natural demand in the short term. Chapter 6 discusses regional trends in the demand for fuel by electric utilities. Chapter 7 focuses on industrial coal use trends in recent years. Chapter 8 compares EIA's base case energy projections as published in the Outlook (89/2Q) with recent projections made by three other major forecasting groups. The chapter focuses on macroeconomic assumptions, primary energy demand, and primary energy supply, showing the differences and similarities in the four forecasts.

1989-10-31T23:59:59.000Z

94

Measuring Short-term Air Conditioner Demand Reductions for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

allow users to look up the demand reduction per device based on the daily maximum temperatureLBNL-5330E Measuring Short-term Air Conditioner Demand Reductions for Operations and Settlement-term Air Conditioner Demand Reductions for Operations and Settlement Josh Bode, Michael J. Sullivan Freeman

95

Enhancements to ANNSTLF, EPRI's Short Term Load Forecaster  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Reliable hourly load forecasts are important to electric utilities, power marketers, energy service providers, and independent system operators. To meet this need, EPRI's Artificial Neural Net Short Term Load Forecaster (ANNSTLF), which is already implemented at more than thirty-five utilities, was recently enhanced for greater accuracy and user friendliness.

1997-12-08T23:59:59.000Z

96

Short-Term Energy Outlook: Quarterly projections. Fourth quarter 1993  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the third quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications.

Not Available

1993-11-05T23:59:59.000Z

97

Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, second quarter 1996  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Energy Information Administration prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections. The forecasts in this issue cover the second quarter of 1996 through the fourth quarter of 1997. Changes to macroeconomic measures by the Bureau of Economic Analysis have been incorporated into the STIFS model used.

NONE

1996-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

98

Short-term hydropower production planning by stochastic programming  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Within the framework of multi-stage mixed-integer linear stochastic programming we develop a short-term production plan for a price-taking hydropower plant operating under uncertainty. Current production must comply with the day-ahead commitments of ... Keywords: Hydropower, OR in energy, Scenarios, Stochastic programming

Stein-Erik Fleten; Trine Krogh Kristoffersen

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

99

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu in power output is a major concern and forecasting is, therefore, a top priority. We propose a sensing infrastructure to enable sensing of solar irradiance with application to solar array output forecasting

Cerpa, Alberto E.

100

RESEARCH ARTICLE Empirical assessment of short-term variability from  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

RESEARCH ARTICLE Empirical assessment of short-term variability from utility-scale solar PV plants grid because additional system resources are required to maintain the grid's reliability. In this study-term variability; PV plant ramp rate; daily aggregate ramp rate; inverter shells *Correspondence Rob van Haaren

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "includes short-term deviations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Search EIA.gov. A-Z Index; A-Z Index A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W XYZ ‹ Analysis & Projections Short-Term Energy Outlook . ...

102

Short-term energy outlook, Quarterly projections. Third quarter 1993  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the second quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding.

NONE

1993-08-04T23:59:59.000Z

103

Integrated Short Term Navigation of a Towed Underwater Body*  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Integrated Short Term Navigation of a Towed Underwater Body* G. Damy' M. Joannides2 F. LeGland3 M. An underwater body, to be called here- after the fish, is towed by a surface ship at the end of a few hundred cannot provide any position estimates of an underwater body such as a towed fish, but only position

LeGland, François

104

DOE/EIA-0202(87/4Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4Q) 4Q) Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections October 1987 i- rt- jrt ort lort lort lort- iort- lort- ort- ort Tt- " t- . m erm Perm -Term -Term -Term -Term ,-Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term 71 e rrn TT1 "1 Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy "nergy -cry Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook ""'tlook Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term Short-Term

105

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 1 October 2005 Short-Term Energy Outlook and Winter Fuels Outlook October 12, 2005 Release (Next Update: November 8, 2005) Overview Warnings from previous Outlooks about the potential adverse impacts of an active hurricane season on domestic energy supply and prices are unfortunately being reflected in the challenging realities brought about by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The impact of the hurricanes on oil and natural gas production, oil refining, natural gas processing, and pipeline systems have further strained already-tight natural gas and petroleum product markets on the eve of the 2005-2006 heating season (October through March). This combined Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook provides a current view of domestic energy supply and

106

Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2013 1 and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2013 1 October 2013 Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook (STEO) Highlights  EIA projects average U.S. household expenditures for natural gas and propane will increase by 13% and 9%, respectively, this winter heating season (October 1 through March 31) compared with last winter. Projected U.S. household expenditures are 2% higher for electricity and 2% lower for heating oil this winter. Although EIA expects average expenditures for households that heat with natural gas will be significantly higher than last winter, spending for gas heat will still be lower than the previous 5-year average (see EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook slideshow).  Brent crude oil spot prices fell from a recent peak of $117 per barrel in early September to

107

Electricity price short-term forecasting using artificial neural networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents the System Marginal Price (SMP) short-term forecasting implementation using the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) computing technique. The described approach uses the three-layered ANN paradigm with back-propagation. The retrospective SMP real-world data, acquired from the deregulated Victorian power system, was used for training and testing the ANN. The results presented in this paper confirm considerable value of the ANN based approach in forecasting the SMP.

Szkuta, B.R.; Sanabria, L.A.; Dillon, T.S. [La Trobe Univ., Melbourne (Australia). Applied Computing Research Inst.

1999-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

108

Short-term hydroelectric generation model. Model documentation report  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model (STHGM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on the model structure. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with the EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models.

NONE

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Greenhouse gas data, voluntary report- ing, electric power plant emissions. Highlights Short-Term Energy Outlook ...

110

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions Model  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Description of the procedures for estimating carbon dioxide emissions in the Short-Term Energy Outlook

Information Center

2009-08-11T23:59:59.000Z

111

www.inescc.pt 1 Short Term Load Forecasting Using Gaussian Process Models  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract — The electrical deregulated market increases the need for short-term load forecast algorithms in order to assist electrical utilities in activities such as planning, operating and controlling electric energy systems. Methodologies based on regression methods have been widely used with satisfactory results. However, this type of approach has some shortcomings. This paper proposes a short-term load forecast methodology applied to distribution systems, based on Gaussian Process models. This methodology establishes an interesting and valuable approach to short-term forecasting applied to the electrical sector. The results obtained are in accordance with the best values of expected errors for these types of methodologies. A careful study of the input variables (regressors) was made, from the point of view of contiguous values, in order to include the strictly necessary instances of endogenous variables. Regressors representing the trend of consumption, at homologous time intervals in the past, were also included in the input vector. The proposed approach was tested on real-load from three medium-sized supply electrical distribution substations located in the center of Portugal. To test the performance of the model in different load situations, the case study includes three different electrical distribution substations representative of typical load consuming patterns,

Inesc Coimbra; João Lourenço; Paulo Santos; Lourenço J. M; Santos P. J

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

112

Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, second quarter 1997  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in January, April, July, and October in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the second quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the first quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the second quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). 34 figs., 19 tabs.

NONE

1997-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, first quarter 1996  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1996 through the fourth quarter of 1997. Values for the fourth quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled into the first quarter 1996 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The cases are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook.

NONE

1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

‹ Analysis & Projections ‹ Analysis & Projections Short-Term Energy Outlook Release Date: January 7, 2014 | Next Release Date: February 11, 2014 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures Glossary › FAQS › Overview STEO Report Highlights Prices Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Coal Electricity Renewables and CO2 Emissions U.S. Economic Assumptions Data Figures Tables Custom Table Builder Real Prices Viewer Forecast Changes (PDF) Special Analysis Price Uncertainty Highlights This edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook is the first to include forecasts for 2015. After falling to the lowest monthly average of 2013 in November, U.S. regular gasoline retail prices increased slightly to reach an average of $3.28 per gallon (gal) during December. The annual average regular

115

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Short-Term Energy Outlook Short-Term Energy Outlook Release Date: January 7, 2014 | Next Release Date: February 11, 2014 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures Glossary › FAQS › Overview STEO Report Highlights Prices Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Coal Electricity Renewables and CO2 Emissions U.S. Economic Assumptions Data Figures Tables Custom Table Builder Real Prices Viewer Forecast Changes (PDF) Special Analysis Price Uncertainty < Back to list of tables Working correctly. Table 1 : U.S. Energy Markets Summary Either scripts and active content are not permitted to run or Adobe Flash Player version ${version_major}.${version_minor}.${version_revision} or greater is not installed. Get Adobe Flash Player a Includes lease condensate.

116

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - January 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

January 2005 January 2005 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook January 2005 Winter Fuels Update (Figure 1) Consumer prices for heating fuels are relatively unchanged since the December Outlook, leaving projections for household heating fuel expenditures about the same as previously projected, despite continued warm weather in the middle of the heating season. Heating oil expenditures by typical Northeastern households are expected to average 30 percent above last winter's levels, with residential fuel oil prices averaging $1.82 per gallon for the October-to-March period. Expenditures for propane-heated households are expected to increase about 20 percent this winter.

117

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

February 2005 February 2005 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook February 2005 Winter Fuels Update (Figure 1) Despite some cold weather during the second half of January, expected average consumer prices for heating fuels this heating season are little changed since the January Outlook, leaving projections for household heating fuel expenditures about the same as previously reported. Heating oil expenditures by typical Northeastern households are expected to average 32 percent above last winter's levels, with residential fuel oil prices averaging $1.82 per gallon for the October-to-March period. Expenditures for propane-heated households are expected to increase about

118

Short-term energy outlook, quarterly projections, second quarter 1998  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates, are available on the Internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The paper discusses outlook assumptions; US energy prices; world oil supply and the oil production cutback agreement of March 1998; international oil demand and supply; world oil stocks, capacity, and net trade; US oil demand and supply; US natural gas demand and supply; US coal demand and supply; US electricity demand and supply; US renewable energy demand; and US energy demand and supply sensitivities. 29 figs., 19 tabs.

NONE

1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

119

Short-term energy outlook, Annual supplement 1995  

SciTech Connect

This supplement is published once a year as a complement to the Short- Term Energy Outlook, Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts. Chap. 2 analyzes the response of the US petroleum industry to the recent four Federal environmental rules on motor gasoline. Chap. 3 compares the EIA base or mid case energy projections for 1995 and 1996 (as published in the first quarter 1995 Outlook) with recent projections made by four other major forecasting groups. Chap. 4 evaluates the overall accuracy. Chap. 5 presents the methology used in the Short- Term Integrated Forecasting Model for oxygenate supply/demand balances. Chap. 6 reports theoretical and empirical results from a study of non-transportation energy demand by sector. The empirical analysis involves the short-run energy demand in the residential, commercial, industrial, and electrical utility sectors in US.

1995-07-25T23:59:59.000Z

120

Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, third quarter 1996  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in January, April, July, and October in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1996 through the fourth quarter of 1997. Values for the second quarter of 1996, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the third quarter 1996 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service.

NONE

1996-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "includes short-term deviations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

63 and $2.72 per MMBtu during the months through October without the wide variations that occurred over the spring and early summer months (Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2002). Prices are expected to be less variable unless unusually hot weather in late summer results in gas being diverted from storage to meet the added cooling demand, or colder-than-normal weather for October results in an unexpected drawdown of storage stocks. Overall in 2002, wellhead prices are expected to average about $2.73 per MMBtu compared with $4.00 in 2001. Prices during the upcoming heating season (November through March), assuming normal weather, are expected to average close to $3.12 per MMBtu, which is about $0.75 higher than last winter's price but only about 10-15 percent higher than current prices.

122

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - April 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

April 2005 April 2005 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook April 2005 2005 Summer Motor Gasoline Outlook (Figure 1) Gasoline prices in 2005 are projected to remain high, at an expected average of $2.28 per gallon for the April to September summer season, 38 cents above last summer. Similar high motor gasoline prices are expected through 2006. Monthly average prices are projected to peak at about $2.35 per gallon in May. Summer diesel fuel prices are expected to average $2.24 per gallon. As in 2004, the primary factor behind these price increases is crude oil costs. WTI, for example, is projected to average 37 cents per gallon higher than last summer. High world oil demand will continue to support crude oil prices and increase competition for

123

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2005 2005 Summer Motor Fuels Outlook Update (Figure 1) In May, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices oscillated from the low $50s range to $47 and back again, retail gasoline prices declined steadily from about $2.24 per gallon at the beginning of the month to $2.10 on May 30. On June 6, average retail prices were $2.12 per gallon. Pump gasoline prices for the summer (April-September) are now projected to average $2.17 per gallon, similar to last month's projection but still about 26 cents per gallon above the year-ago level. Crude oil prices are expected to remain high enough to keep monthly average gasoline prices above $2.00 per gallon through 2006. The

124

Microsoft Word - Alcoa_short-term_amendments_CX.docx  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

2 2 REPLY TO ATTN OF: KEC-4 SUBJECT: Environmental Clearance Memorandum Mark Miller Account Executive, Long-term Sales and Purchases - PT-5 Proposed Action: Short-term Additional Amendments to the Alcoa Power Sales Agreement Categorical Exclusion Applied (from Subpart D, 10 C.F.R. Part 1021): A2 - Clarifying or administrative contract actions Location: Portland, OR and Ferndale, WA Proposed by: Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) Description of the Proposed Action: BPA proposes to execute one or more additional amendments to its existing 2009 Power Sales Agreement (Agreement) with Alcoa, Inc. (Alcoa) to further extend the Agreement's Initial Period provisions. The current date for expiration of these provisions under the most recent amendment (Amendment Number 2) is July 31, 2012.

125

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - April 2006  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 1 April 2006 Short-Term Energy Outlook and Summer Fuels Outlook April 11, 2006 Release Contents Overview Global Petroleum Markets U.S. Petroleum Markets Motor Gasoline Diesel Fuel Natural Gas Markets Electricity Markets Coal Markets Overview Continued steady world oil demand growth, combined with only modest increases in world spare oil production capacity and the continuing risks of geopolitical instability, are expected to keep crude oil prices high through 2006. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is projected to average $65 per barrel in 2006 and $61 in 2007 (Figure 1. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price). Retail regular gasoline prices are projected to average $2.50 per gallon in 2006 and $2.40 in

126

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook May 2005 2005 Summer Motor Gasoline Outlook Update (Figure 1) A considerable break in the expected strength of near-term crude oil prices has resulted in a lower forecast for retail gasoline prices this spring. Gasoline prices may well have seen their peak for the year, barring sharp disruptions in crude oil supply or refinery operations. Pump prices for the summer (April-September) are now projected to average $2.17 per gallon, still high by historical standards but well below the $2.28 anticipated last month. Our projection has been revised downward from the last Outlook as crude oil prices fell from the high $50s per barrel to the low $50s. However, oil prices remain high enough to keep expected

127

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - July 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

July 2005 July 2005 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook July 2005 2005 Summer Motor Fuels Outlook Update (Figure 1) Retail regular-grade gasoline prices moved up from about $2.12 per gallon at the beginning of June to $2.33 on July 11. Gasoline pump prices for the summer (April-September) are now projected to average $2.25 per gallon, 8 cents per gallon higher than last month's projection and about 35 cents per gallon above the year-ago level. Crude oil prices are expected to remain high enough to keep quarterly average gasoline prices above $2.20 per gallon through 2006. The projected average for retail diesel this summer is $2.33 per gallon, up about 56 cents per gallon from last summer. Nationally, annual average diesel fuel prices

128

Efficient Tracking for Short-Term Multi-Company Networks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Tracking of shipments is an important element of customer service in the transportation industry; and essential for logistics services as merge-in-transit. However, contemporary tracking systems are designed for use within a single company, and are thus invariably inadequate for multi-company environments. The single company focus has led to a reduced span of monitoring and a diluted accessibility of information due to proprietary tracking codes and information architectures centred on the tracking service provider. This paper presents a novel forwarder-independent approach for solving the difficulties of tracking in multi-company supply networks. The research argues that the proposed tracking approach is superior to contemporary approaches for material flow tracking in short-term multi-company distribution networks.

Mikko Kärkkäinen; Timo Ala-Risku; Kary Främling

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

Models for Short-Term Production Planning of Cogeneration Plants  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The short-term production planning problem for a district heating system is a well-known but difficult optimization problem. In a district heating plant several types of energy producing units are used, the most important being the cogeneration unit, which produces both heat and electricity. The net electricity is sold at the electricity market. Most plants also have a heat water storage. Finding the optimal production of both heat and electricity and the optimal use of the heat water storage is a challenging mixed optimization problem. The production planning may be divided into two sub-problems. The unit commitment problem determines which units should be on or off and in which different mode the unit should run. The economic dispatch problem finds the optimal production plan given the units on and running modes. In this paper we formulate a new approach for the mathematical modeling of the economic dispatch problem. The model objective function is nonlinear, with nonlinear constrain...

Erik Dotzauer; Kenneth Holmström

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

130

Short-Term Energy Monitoring (STEM): Application of the PSTAR method to a residence in Fredericksburg, Virginia  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This report describes a project to assess the thermal quality of a residential building based on short-term tests during which a small number of data channels are measured. The project is called Short- Term Energy Monitoring (STEM). Analysis of the data provides extrapolation to long-term performance. The test protocol and analysis are based on a unified method for building simulations and short-term testing called Primary and Secondary Terms Analysis and Renormalization (PSTAR). In the PSTAR method, renormalized parameters are introduced for the primary terms such that the renormalized energy balance is best satisfied in the least squares sense; hence, the name PSTAR. The mathematical formulation of PSTAR is detailed in earlier reports. This report describes the short-term tests and data analysis performed using the PSTAR method on a residential building in Fredricksburg, Virginia. The results demonstrate the ability of the PSTAR method to provide a realistically complex thermal model of a building, and determine from short-term tests the statics as well as the dynamics of a building, including solar dynamics. 10 refs., 12 figs., 2 tabs.

Subbarao, K.; Burch, J.D.; Hancock, C.E.; Lekov, A.; Balcomb, J.D.

1988-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

California’s Economic Outlook: Short-term Recovery But Longer-term Uncertainties  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The Long-Term Demographic Outlook for California and LosCALIFORNIA’S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: SHORT-TERM RECOVERY BUTCalifornia’s short-term outlook remains one of expansion,

Hurd, Joseph; Mitchell, Daniel J.B.

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

132

CloudCast: Cloud Computing for Short-Term Weather Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

CloudCast provides clients with personalized short-term weather forecasts based on their current location using cloud services

Dilip Kumar Krishnappa; David Irwin; Eric Lyons; Michael Zink

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

133

Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

Information Center

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

134

Determining Long-Term Performance of Cool Storage Systems from Short-Term Tests, Final Report  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This is the final report for ASHRAE Research Project 1004-RP: Determining Long-Term Performance of Cool Storage Systems from Short-Term Tests. This report presents the results of the development and application of the methodology to Case Study #2, the Delmar College, in Corpus Christi, Texas, and Case Study #3, the Austin Convention Center, in Austin, Texas. A previous report presented the analysis results for Case Study #1, which was a large hotel located in San Francisco, CA. This report also includes a summary and discussion of the results from all three case studies, recommendations for further research, and a step-by-step guide to applying the analysis methodology.

Reddy, T. A.; Elleson, J.; Haberl, J. S.

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

135

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

in September and range between $4.37 and $4.58 per MMBtu in the last 3 months of 2003 (Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2003). Spot prices at the Henry Hub have fallen somewhat from the unusually high levels that prevailed in the first half of the year and most of July, as mild summer weather in many areas of the country has reduced cooling demand and allowed record storage refill rates. As of September 5, working gas levels were only 5.5 percent below the 5-year average and, barring any disruptions, are on target to reach 3 Tcf by the end of October. However, gas prices remain high-wellhead prices this summer are estimated to be 60 to 70 percent higher than levels last summer. Overall in 2003, wellhead prices are expected to average $4.84 per MMBtu, which is nearly $2 more than the 2002 annual average and the largest year-to-year increase on record. For 2004, assuming normal weather, wellhead prices are projected to drop by about $1 per MMBtu, or almost 20 percent, to $3.89 per MMBtu, as the overall supply situation improves.

136

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5.57 per MMBtu in January 2004 and $5.40 in February, and then decrease to $4.77 in March as the heating season winds down (Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2004). Spot prices were quite variable in December, with prices at the Henry Hub starting the month at around $5.00 per MMBtu, spiking to roughly $7.00 in the middle of the month, then falling to $5.50 toward the end of the month as warmer-than-normal weather eased demand. Spot prices will likely remain well above $5.00 over the next few months if normal or colder weather prevails, especially with oil prices remaining at relatively high levels. (Oil prices this winter are expected to average $31.35 per barrel (19 cents higher than last winter's average), or 5.41 per MMBtu.) Natural gas storage levels were 8 percent above average as of January 2, which could place downward pressure on prices if warm temperatures and weak heating demand occur later this winter, just as rising prices are possible if the weather becomes colder. Overall in 2004, natural gas wellhead prices are expected to average $4.73 per MMBtu, while spot prices will average nearly $5.00. In 2005, natural gas spot prices are projected to fall to an average of $4.83 per MMBtu under the assumption that domestic and imported supply can continue to grow by about 1-1.5 percent per year.

137

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Now that the heating season has ended, natural gas wellhead prices have fallen from the exceptionally high levels seen in February and early March. Nevertheless, they still remain historically and unseasonably high, hovering around $5.00 per MMBtu. EIA projects that natural gas wellhead prices will remain above $5.00 per MMBtu in April and then decrease to $4.36 in May and $4.26 in June (Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2003). Wellhead prices for the 2002-2003 heating season (November through March) averaged $4.44 per MMBtu, or $2.08 more than last winter's price. Overall in 2003, wellhead prices are projected to increase about $1.53 per MMBtu over the 2002 level to $4.40 per MMBtu. This projection is based on the expectation of lower volumes of natural gas in underground storage compared with last year and continued increases in demand over 2002 levels. Cold temperatures this past winter led to a record drawdown of storage stocks. By the end of March, estimated working gas stocks were 676 Bcf (prior estimates were 696 Bcf), which is the lowest end-of-March level in EIA records and 44 percent below the previous 5-year average. In 2004, continued tightness of domestic natural gas supply and high demand levels are expected to keep the average wellhead price near the 2003 level.

138

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4.20 per MMBtu through January 2003 and then increase to $4.61 in February and $4.23 in March (Short-Term Energy Outlook, released January 8, 2003). Wellhead prices for the overall heating season (November through March), assuming normal weather, are expected to average about $4.10 per MMBtu, or $1.74 more than last winter's levels, while prices to residential customers are expected to average $8.51 per MMBtu compared with $7.14 last winter. Natural gas prices were higher than expected in November and December as below-normal temperatures throughout much of the nation increased heating demand, placing upward pressure on gas prices. Spot prices at the Henry Hub climbed above $5.00 per MMBtu in the second week of December and stayed near or above this threshold through the end of the month. Overall in 2002, wellhead prices are expected to average $2.90 per MMBtu compared with $4.00 in 2001. In 2003, average wellhead prices are projected to increase about $1.00 per MMBtu over the 2002 level to $3.90 per MMBtu, owing to expectations of higher demand levels than in 2002 and lower storage levels for most of the year compared with 2002 levels.

139

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8 per MMBtu during the last 2 months of 2003 and increase to $4.36 in January 2004 (Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2003). Prices have fallen in the past few months as mild weather and reduced industrial demand have allowed record storage refill rates. As of October 31, 2003, working gas levels had reached 3,155 Bcf, which is about 3 percent higher than the 5-year average and the first time since October 2002 that stocks exceeded the year-earlier levels. With the improved storage situation, wellhead prices during the current heating season (November through March) are expected to be about 12 percent less than last winter ($4.12 vs. $4.68 per MMBtu). However, prices in the residential sector will likely be about 8 percent higher than last winter, as accumulated natural gas utility costs through 2003 are recovered in higher household delivery charges. Overall in 2003, wellhead prices are expected to average $4.76 per MMBtu, which is nearly $2 more than the 2002 annual average and the largest year-to-year increase on record. For 2004, wellhead prices are projected to drop by nearly $0.90 per MMBtu, or about 18 percent, to $3.88 per MMBtu as the overall supply situation improves.

140

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

this summer and continue at elevated levels through the rest of 2003 (Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2003). Natural gas wellhead prices are expected to average $5.40 per MMBtu in June and remain above $5.13 through December 2003. Spot prices at the Henry Hub have stayed well above $5.00 per MMBtu on a monthly basis since the beginning of the year and have been above $6.00 for the first 10 days of June. The low level of underground storage is the principal reason for these unusually high prices. As of June 6, 2003, working gas stocks were 1,324 Bcf, which is about 35 percent below year-earlier levels and 25 percent below the 5-year average. Natural gas prices are likely to stay high as long as above-normal storage injection demand competes with industrial and power sector demand for gas. Overall in 2003, wellhead prices are projected to increase about $2.33 per MMBtu (the largest U.S. annual wellhead price increase on record) over the 2002 level to a record annual high of about $5.20 per MMBtu. For 2004, prices are projected to ease only moderately, as supplies are expected to remain tight.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "includes short-term deviations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

range from $2.91 to $3.19 per MMBtu through December 2002 and then increase to $3.53 in January 2003, the peak demand month of the heating season (Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2002). Natural gas prices climbed sharply in late September as hurricanes Isidore and Lili caused production shut downs in the Gulf of Mexico. However, this price surge is expected to be short-lived, unless the weather in October is unusually cold or if additional storm activity in the Gulf curbs production further. Overall in 2002, wellhead prices are expected to average about $2.76 per MMBtu compared with $4.00 in 2001. Prices during the upcoming heating season (November through March), assuming normal weather, are expected to average $3.32 per MMBtu, which is about $0.96 higher than last winter's price. Prices to residential customers during the heating season are expected to average $7.55 per MMBtu compared with $7.14 last winter.

142

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

average $2.83 per MMBtu in 2002 compared with about $4.00 last year (Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2002). Average wellhead prices have increased by nearly 50 percent from $2.09 per MMBtu in February to an estimated $3.11 per MMBtu in May. Spot prices at the Henry Hub have also increased, rising more than $1.00 per MMBtu since early February. It is atypical to see higher spot gas prices in the cooling season than during the heating season, particularly when working gas in underground storage is at high levels, as it has been for the past several months. As of the end of May, working gas levels were more than 20 percent above the previous 5-year average for that month. Moreover, gas-directed drilling, while down sharply from summer 2001 levels, is still quite strong from a historical perspective. The gas rig count as of May 31 was up 22 percent from the recent low of 591 for the week ending April 5.

143

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4.41 per MMBtu in December 2003, although spot prices are expected to average $5.38 (Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2003). The average wellhead price is expected to increase moderately to $4.56 during the first three months of 2004. Natural gas prices were lower in November than previously expected but forward price expectations remain sensitive to weather conditions. Prices increased rapidly in futures trading in early December as some cold weather moved into the Eastern United States and reported withdrawals from gas storage were slightly larger than expected. Spot prices above $5 per MMBtu remain likely over the next few months if normal (or colder) weather prevails, especially with oil prices remaining at relatively high levels. Natural gas storage levels are still above average and hold the potential to push prices back down if warm temperatures and weak heating demand materialize later in the winter, just as upward spikes remain a strong possibility if the weather turns cold.

144

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

about $3.49 per MMBtu through December 2002 and then increase to $3.76 in January 2003, the peak demand month of the heating season (Short-Term Energy Outlook, released November 7, 2002). Natural gas prices were higher than expected in October as storms in the Gulf of Mexico in late September temporarily shut in some gas production, causing spot prices at the Henry Hub and elsewhere to rise above $4.00 per million Btu for most of October. In addition, early winter-like temperatures, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast, increased demand for natural gas, placing upward pressure on gas prices. Overall in 2002, wellhead prices are expected to average about $2.84 per MMBtu compared with $4.00 in 2001. Prices during the heating season (November through March), assuming normal weather, are expected to average $3.56 per MMBtu, which is about $1.20 higher than last winter's price. Prices to residential customers during the heating season are expected to average $7.81 per MMBtu compared with $7.14 last winter. In 2003, wellhead prices are projected to average $3.28 per MMBtu, or about $0.44 per MMBtu more than in 2002, owing to expectations of increasing economic growth, little or no change in the annual average crude oil price for 2003, and lower storage levels for most of 2003 compared with 2002 levels.

145

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7 per MMBtu during the last 3 months of 2003 and increase to $4.32 in January 2004 (Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2003). Prices have fallen somewhat from the unusually high levels that prevailed in the first half of the year and most of July, as mild summer weather and reduced industrial demand allowed record storage refill rates. As of October 3, 2003, working gas levels were only 1 percent below the 5-year average and, barring any disruptions, are on target to reach 3 Tcf by the end of October. With the improved storage situation, wellhead prices during the upcoming heating season (November through March), assuming normal weather, are expected to be about 13 percent less than last winter ($4.17 vs. $4.68 per MMBtu). But prices in the residential sector are projected to be about 9 percent higher than last winter, as the recent decline in wellhead prices is too recent and insufficient to offset the impact of the substantial spring-summer increase in wellhead prices on residential prices. Overall in 2003, wellhead prices are expected to average $4.75 per MMBtu, which is nearly $2 more than the 2002 annual average and the largest year-to-year increase on record. For 2004, wellhead prices are projected to drop by nearly $0.90 per MMBtu, or about 20 percent, to $3.86 per MMBtu as the overall supply situation improves.

146

Short-term energy outlook, quarterly projections, first quarter 1998  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1998 through the fourth quarter of 1999. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the first quarter 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 24 figs., 19 tabs.

NONE

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

147

An Empirical Analysis of Analysts' Target Prices: Short Term . . .  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Using a large database of analysts' target prices, we examine short-term market reactions to target price announcements and long-term co-movement of target and stock prices. We find a significant market reaction to the information contained in analysts' target prices, both unconditional and conditional on contemporaneously issued stock recommendations and earnings forecast revisions. For example, the spread in average announcement day abnormal returns between positive and negative target price revisions is as high as 7 percent. We also find that stock recommendations and earnings forecast revisions are informative controlling for the information in target prices. Using a cointegration approach, we explore the long-term behavior of market and target prices and estimate the system's long-term equilibrium. In this equilibrium a typical firm's one-year ahead target price is 22 percent higher than its current market price. Finally, while market prices react to the information conveyed in analysts' reports, we show that any subsequent corrections towards the long-term equilibrium are, in effect, done by analysts alone.

Alon Brav; Reuven Lehavy

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

the rest of the winter and the first part of spring, with prices averaging $5.19 per MMBtu through March and $4.58 in April (Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2004). Wellhead prices for the current heating season (November 2003 through March 2004) are expected to average $4.99 per MMBtu, or about 7 percent higher than last winter's level. Spot prices at the Henry Hub averaged $5.90 per MMBtu in January as cold temperatures (6 percent colder than normal nationally and 19 percent colder than normal in the Northeast) kept natural gas prices and heating demand high. Despite the severe weather, natural gas storage stocks were 3 percent above average as of January 30 and spot prices in early February have moved down somewhat. Overall in 2004, spot prices are expected to average about $4.90 per MMBtu and wellhead prices are expected to average $4.63 per MMBtu, declining moderately from the 2003 levels. In 2005, natural gas spot prices are projected to average about $5.00 per MMBtu, under the assumption that domestic and imported supply can continue to grow by about 1 percent per year.

149

Measuring Short-term Air Conditioner Demand Reductions for Operations and  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Measuring Short-term Air Conditioner Demand Reductions for Operations and Measuring Short-term Air Conditioner Demand Reductions for Operations and Settlement Title Measuring Short-term Air Conditioner Demand Reductions for Operations and Settlement Publication Type Report LBNL Report Number LBNL-5330E Year of Publication 2012 Authors Bode, Josh, Michael J. Sullivan, and Joseph H. Eto Pagination 120 Date Published 01/2012 Publisher LBNL City Berkeley Keywords consortium for electric reliability technology solutions (certs), electricity markets and policy group, energy analysis and environmental impacts department Abstract Several recent demonstrations and pilots have shown that air conditioner (AC) electric loads can be controlled during the summer cooling season to provide ancillary services and improve the stability and reliability of the electricity grid. A key issue for integration of air conditioner load control into grid operations is how to accurately measure shorter-term (e.g., ten's of minutes to a couple of hours) demand reductions from AC load curtailments for operations and settlement. This report presents a framework for assessing the accuracy of shorter-term AC load control demand reduction measurements. It also compares the accuracy of various alternatives for measuring AC reductions - including methods that rely on regression analysis, load matching and control groups - using feeder data, household data and AC end-use data. A practical approach is recommended for settlement that relies on set of tables, updated annually, with pre-calculated load reduction estimates. The tables allow users to look up the demand reduction per device based on the daily maximum temperature, geographic region and hour of day and simplify the settlement process.

150

Short-Term Wind Generation Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Wind power is a highly intermittent power output resource that cannot be bid competitively in a traditional market due to scheduling problems associated with the resource. The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) has proposed a unique market arrangement that makes such bidding possible. The central part of the arrangement is a provision that deviations between metered and scheduled energy for participating intermittent renewable resources will be averaged across a calendar month, and paid or ch...

2003-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

151

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

a: Includes lease condensate. b: Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption. c: Renewable energy includes minor ...

152

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Market Prices and Uncertainty Report. This is a regular monthly supplement to the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook. Contact: James Preciado (James.Preciado@eia.gov) Full ...

153

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy use in homes, commercial buildings, manufacturing, and transportation. ... Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model:

154

Implications of Wide-Area Geographic Diversity for Short- Term Variability of Solar Power  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

due to wind and solar power. Environmental Science &Integration of Concentrating Solar Power and Utility-ScaleShort- Term Variability of Solar Power Andrew Mills and Ryan

Mills, Andrew

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

Short-Term Energy Outlook November 2004 - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System and by EIA’s office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels (hydroelectric and nuclear).

156

DOE/EIA-0202(85/4Q) Short-Term Washington, D C Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

forecasting system, analyzes previous forecast errors, and provides detailed analyses of current issues that affect EIA's short-term energy forecasts.

157

Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short?Term Energy Outlook February 2013 5 modestly in this forecast, increasing by 50,000 bbl/d (0 ...

158

Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short?Term Energy Outlook January 2013 5 Forecast motor gasoline consumption in 2013 and 2014 ...

159

DOE/EIA-0202(85/2Q) Short-Term Washington, D C Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook, 1984 Published January 1985 The Short-Term Energy Outlook provides forecasts of the energy situation for 1985 and the first half of 1986.

160

DOE/EIA-0202(84/2QH Short-Term Energy Information Administration ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

DOE/EIA-0202(84/2QH Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections May 1984 Published: June 1984 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "includes short-term deviations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Use of short-term test systems for the prediction of the hazard represented by potential chemical carcinogens  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

It has been hypothesized that results from short-term bioassays will ultimately provide information that will be useful for human health hazard assessment. Historically, the validity of the short-term tests has been assessed using the framework of the epidemiologic/medical screens. In this context, the results of the carcinogen (long-term) bioassay is generally used as the standard. However, this approach is widely recognized as being biased and, because it employs qualitative data, cannot be used to assist in isolating those compounds which may represent a more significant toxicologic hazard than others. In contrast, the goal of this research is to address the problem of evaluating the utility of the short-term tests for hazard assessment using an alternative method of investigation. Chemicals were selected mostly from the list of carcinogens published by the International Agency for Research on Carcinogens (IARC); a few other chemicals commonly recognized as hazardous were included. Tumorigenicity and mutagenicity data on 52 chemicals were obtained from the Registry of Toxic Effects of Chemical Substances (RTECS) and were analyzed using a relative potency approach. The data were evaluated in a format which allowed for a comparison of the ranking of the mutagenic relative potencies of the compounds (as estimated using short-term data) vs. the ranking of the tumorigenic relative potencies (as estimated from the chronic bioassays). Although this was a preliminary investigation, it offers evidence that the short-term tests systems may be of utility in ranking the hazards represented by chemicals which may contribute to increased carcinogenesis in humans as a result of occupational or environmental exposures. 177 refs., 8 tabs.

Glass, L.R.; Jones, T.D.; Easterly, C.E.; Walsh, P.J.

1990-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

162

SHORT-TERM SOLAR FLARE LEVEL PREDICTION USING A BAYESIAN NETWORK APPROACH  

SciTech Connect

A Bayesian network approach for short-term solar flare level prediction has been proposed based on three sequences of photospheric magnetic field parameters extracted from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager longitudinal magnetograms. The magnetic measures, the maximum horizontal gradient, the length of neutral line, and the number of singular points do not have determinate relationships with solar flares, so the solar flare level prediction is considered as an uncertainty reasoning process modeled by the Bayesian network. The qualitative network structure which describes conditional independent relationships among magnetic field parameters and the quantitative conditional probability tables which determine the probabilistic values for each variable are learned from the data set. Seven sequential features-the maximum, the mean, the root mean square, the standard deviation, the shape factor, the crest factor, and the pulse factor-are extracted to reduce the dimensions of the raw sequences. Two Bayesian network models are built using raw sequential data (BN{sub R}) and feature extracted data (BN{sub F}), respectively. The explanations of these models are consistent with physical analyses of experts. The performances of the BN{sub R} and the BN{sub F} appear comparable with other methods. More importantly, the comprehensibility of the Bayesian network models is better than other methods.

Yu Daren; Huang Xin; Hu Qinghua; Zhou Rui [Harbin Institute of Technology, No. 92 West Da Zhi Street, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province 150001 (China); Wang Huaning [National Astronomical Observatories, 20A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012 (China); Cui Yanmei, E-mail: huangxinhit@yahoo.com.c [Center for Space Science and Applied Research, No. 1 Nanertiao, Zhongguancun, Haidian District, Beijing 100080 (China)

2010-02-10T23:59:59.000Z

163

Short-term load forecasting using lifting scheme and ARIMA models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-term load forecasting is achieved using a lifting scheme and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The lifting scheme is a general and flexible approach for constructing bi-orthogonal wavelets that are usually in the spatial ... Keywords: Autoregressive integrated moving average model, Back propagation network, Lifting scheme, Multi-revolution analysis, Short-term load forecasting, Wavelet transform

Cheng-Ming Lee; Chia-Nan Ko

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

Treasurer's Annual Report, University of California, 2007-2008 Short Term Investment Pool (STIP)  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Treasurer's Annual Report, University of California, 2007-2008 Short Term Investment Pool (STIP) Treasurer's Annual Report, University of California, 2007-2008 The Short Term Investment Pool (STIP of the University are the major funds invested in STIP until expended. Pension, endowment, and defined contribution

Russell, Lynn

165

Short-term scheduling of cascade reservoirs using an immune algorithm-based particle swarm optimization  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents a new approach for short-term hydropower scheduling of reservoirs using an immune algorithm-based particle swarm optimization (IA-PSO). IA-PSO is employed by coupling the immune information processing mechanism with the particle swarm ... Keywords: Cascade reservoirs, Immune algorithm-based particle swarm optimization, Short-term operations

Xiang Fu; Anqiang Li; Liping Wang; Changming Ji

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

166

Process Deviation Form  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

3 Process Deviation Form 080822 Page 1 of 3 EOTA - Business Form Document Title: Process Deviation Form Document Number: F-013 Rev. 080822 Document Owner: Elizabeth Sousa Backup...

167

Algorithms for Short-Term Production-Planning of Cogeneration Plants  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A cogeneration plant, feeding its output water into a district-heating network, may include several types of energy producing units. The most important being the Cogeneration unit, which produces both heat and electricity. Most plants also have a Heat water storage. Finding the optimal production of both heat and electricity and the optimal use of the storage is a challenging mixed integer nonlinear optimization problem. The calculations may be divided into two sub-problems. The unit commitment problem is the problem to determine when a unit should be producing (on) or not (off). To solve the economic dispatch problem is to find the optimal production plan given which units are producing in each time interval. Together the solution of these two problems form the solution of the short-term production-planning problem. In this thesis a general approach for the mathematical modeling of a cogeneration plant is presented. The model objective function is nonlinear, with nonlinear constraints....

Erik Dotzauer

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

168

Short-term Variations in the Galactic Environment of the Sun  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The galactic environment of the Sun varies over short timescales as the Sun and interstellar clouds travel through space. Small variations in the dynamics, ionization, density, and magnetic field strength of the interstellar medium (ISM) surrounding the Sun yield pronounced changes in the heliosphere. We discuss essential information required to understand short-term variations in the galactic environment of the Sun, including the distribution and radiative transfer properties of nearby ISM, and variations in the boundary conditions of the heliosphere as the Sun traverses clouds. The most predictable transitions are when the Sun emerged from the Local Bubble interior and entered the cluster of local interstellar clouds flowing past the Sun, within the past 140,000 years, and again when the Sun entered the local interstellar cloud now surrounding and inside of the solar system, sometime during the past 44,000 years.

Priscilla C. Frisch; Jonathan D. Slavin

2006-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

169

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Petroleum & Other Liquids. Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. ...

170

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Includes hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal, biomass and ethanol. Nuclear & Uranium. Uranium fuel, nuclear reactors, generation, spent fuel. ...

171

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and ... What is the role of coal in the United States? ... unchanged ...

172

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

a: Conventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy. b: Wood and wood-derived ...

173

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas. Exploration and reserves, storage, ...

174

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Maps by energy source and topic, includes forecast maps. ... Release Date: October 8, 2013 ... and projects increases of 1.7% in 2013 and 0.9% in 2014.

175

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Maps by energy source and topic, includes ... Release Date: November 13, 2013 ... for electricity and heat generation grow by an average of 8.1% in 2013.

176

Safeguards Education and Training: Short Term Supply vs. Demand  

SciTech Connect

Much has been written and discussed in the past several years about the effect of the aging nuclear workforce on the sustainability of the U.S. safeguards and security infrastructure. This paper discusses the 10-15 year supply and demand forecast for nuclear material control and accounting specialists. The demand side of the review includes control and accounting of the materials at U.S. DOE and NRC facilities, and the federal oversight of those MC&A programs. The cadre of experts referred to as 'MC&A Specialists' available to meet the demand goes beyond domestic MC&A to include international programs, regulatory and inspection support, and so on.

Mathews, Carrie E.; Crawford, Cary E.

2004-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

177

Microsoft PowerPoint - Arseneau_EIA_ShortTermDriversofEnergyPrices.ppt [Compatibility Mode]  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

SHORT-TERM ENERGY PRICES: SHORT-TERM ENERGY PRICES: WHAT DRIVERS MATTER MOST? DAVID M. ARSENEAU FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD U.S. Energy Information Administration & Johns Hopkins University - SAIS FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD Johns Hopkins University SAIS 2010 Energy Conference Washington, D.C., U.S.A. A il 6 2010 April 6, 2010 BROAD COMMODITY PRICES SINCE 2000 Short-term Energy Prices: What Drivers Matters Most? BROAD COMMODITY PRICES SINCE 2000 April 6, 2010 Seminar: 2010 EIA/SAIS Energy Conference 2 A (GROSSLY OVERSIMPLIFIED) FRAMEWORK Short-term Energy Prices: What Drivers Matters Most? A (GROSSLY OVERSIMPLIFIED) FRAMEWORK ...  Two candidate explanations:  "Fundamentals"  Fundamentals  Trend price movements appear broadly interpretable through lens of fundamental market developments...

178

Linear Statistical Short-Term Climate Predictive Skill in the Northern Hemisphere  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this study, the sources and strengths of statistical short-term climate predictability for local surface climate (temperature and precipitation) and 700-mb geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere are explored at all times of the year at ...

Anthony G. Barnston

1994-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

179

An Automated, Observations-Based System for Short-Term Prediction of Ceiling and Visibility  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Several methods of generating very short term (0–6 h) probabilistic forecasts of ceiling and visibility are investigated: 1) an observations-based (OBS-based) system in which potential predictors consist of weather observations from a network of ...

Robert L. Vislocky; J. Michael Fritsch

1997-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

180

To forecast short-term load in electric power system based on FNN  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Electric power system load forecasting plays an important part in the Energy Management System (EMS), which has a great effect on the operating, controlling and planning of power system. Accurate load forecasting, especially short-term load forecasting, ...

Yueli Hu; Huijie Ji; Xiaolong Song

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "includes short-term deviations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Motor Gasoline Consumption Model  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The motor gasoline consumption module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide forecasts of total U.S. consumption of motor gasolien based on estimates of vehicle miles traveled and average vehicle fuel economy.

Tancred Lidderdale

2011-11-30T23:59:59.000Z

182

Mechanisms of Short-Term Sea Surface Temperature Regulation: Observations during TOGA COARE  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Analyses of ocean–atmosphere data from Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment indicate that short-term (weekly to monthly) fluctuations of SST in the western Pacific warm pool are closely linked to the ...

K-M. Lau; C-H. Sui

1997-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

183

EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels OutlookWinter Fuels Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

heating oil electricity South U.S. total wood kerosene/other/no heating 116 million homes 4 Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 8, 2013

184

A Minimal Model for the Short-Term Prediction of Rainfall in the Tropics  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A “minimal” model is proposed here for the short-term prediction (up to 12 h ahead) of precipitation occurrence in the tropics. The model is purely statistical, consisting of an optimally weighted linear combination of a Markov chain and ...

K. Fraedrich; L. M. Leslie

1988-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

GRR/Section 6-MT-f - Short-term Water Quality Standard for Turbidity...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

GRRSection 6-MT-f - Short-term Water Quality Standard for Turbidity (318 Authorization) < GRR Jump to: navigation, search GRR-logo.png GEOTHERMAL REGULATORY ROADMAP Roadmap Home...

186

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Heating Oil Price Model  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The regional residential heating oil price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

Information Center

2009-11-09T23:59:59.000Z

187

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Propane Price Model  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The regional residential propane price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

Information Center

2009-11-09T23:59:59.000Z

188

Improving QPE and Very Short Term QPF: An Initiative for a Community-Wide Integrated Approach  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Accurate quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and very short term quantitative precipitation forecasts (VSTQPF) are critical to accurate monitoring and prediction of water-related hazards and water resources. While tremendous progress has ...

Steven V. Vasiloff; Kenneth W. Howard; Robert M. Rabin; Harold E. Brooks; Dong-Jun Seo; Jian Zhang; David H. Kitzmiller; Mary G. Mullusky; Witold F. Krajewski; Edward A. Brandes; Barbara G. Brown; Daniel S. Berkowitz; John A. McGinley; Robert J. Kuligowski

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

189

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Short-Term Energy Outlook ... Search EIA.gov. A-Z Index; ... but EIA expects that several large solar thermal generation projects will enter service in 2013 and 2014.

190

Long vs. short-term energy storage:sensitivity analysis.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This report extends earlier work to characterize long-duration and short-duration energy storage technologies, primarily on the basis of life-cycle cost, and to investigate sensitivities to various input assumptions. Another technology--asymmetric lead-carbon capacitors--has also been added. Energy storage technologies are examined for three application categories--bulk energy storage, distributed generation, and power quality--with significant variations in discharge time and storage capacity. Sensitivity analyses include cost of electricity and natural gas, and system life, which impacts replacement costs and capital carrying charges. Results are presented in terms of annual cost, $/kW-yr. A major variable affecting system cost is hours of storage available for discharge.

Schoenung, Susan M. (Longitude 122 West, Inc., Menlo Park, CA); Hassenzahl, William V. (,Advanced Energy Analysis, Piedmont, CA)

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

191

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that natural gas prices will remain relatively high for the rest of 2004. Wellhead prices are expected to average $5.41 per MMBtu through the end of the storage refill season (October 31) and $5.59 in November and December. Spot prices (composites for producing-area hubs) averaged about $5.30 per MMBtu in the first quarter of this year but are currently near $6.00. Barring cooler-than-normal weather this summer, the likelihood appears small that spot prices will fall significantly below $5.65 per MMBtu for the rest of 2004. Overall in 2004, spot prices will likely average $5.62 per MMBtu and wellhead prices will average $5.33. In 2005, spot prices are expected to increase to $5.90 per MMBtu. As in other recent projections, this outcome depends on modest growth in domestic production and total available supply (including imports and storage inventories) in both 2004 and 2005. Underground storage facilities reported net injections of 199 Bcf for April, well above the previous 5-year average of 139 Bcf. At the end of April, storage stocks were only about 2 percent below the 5-year average level and 37 percent higher than last year at this time based on monthly survey data.

192

Process Deviation Log  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Process Deviation Log 09_0730 Process Deviation Log 09_0730 EOTA - Business Form Document Title: P-010, Process Deviation Process Document Number: Process Deviation Log EOTA Employees Melissa Otero N/A Referenced Documents: Parent Document: F-014 Rev. 11_0316 Approvers: Melissa Otero Document Owner: Elizabeth Sousa Backup Owner: Notify of Changes: A 09_0730 11_0316 Revision History: Rev. Description of Change Intitial Release. Revised log to reflect date/date range that PD is in effect. Removed drop-down menu items. Added ECD, Extension Date and Closed Column. F-014 Process Deviation Log 09_0730 Process Deviation # Date Requestor Departme nt Process # Has PD Occurred ? (Y/N) CAR/PAR # Distributio n Date Estimated Closure Date Extension Date Closed Date Comment PD-001 PD-002 PD-003 PD-004 PD-005 PD-006 PD-007 PD-008 PD-009

193

Short Term Energy Monitoring: What Does This Information Mean to the Facility Energy Manager?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Engineers at the Energy Systems Laboratory at Texas A&M University have completed short term energy metering studies at a complex of offices in northern Texas and several buildings on the Texas A&M University campus during the past 18 months. These studies typically consisted of installing electrical metering at the, whole building level and included sub-metering of selected circuits when possible. Personnel would go through the entire facility ensuring that all lighting, fan, and mechanical systems were active and on. After a period of approximately 10 minutes, a selected areas of the building would be "turned off." This sequence was repeated for all areas of interest in the facility. At the end of the lighting test, air handlers, then chilling and pumping equipment was turned off (if applicable) and a final ten minutes of electrical use data taken. In each of these facilities, lighting system load verification was the primary goal and the data provided a very good accounting for all buildings studied. The northern Texas office buildings in particular, were interested in these data for comparison with a recently hired performance contractor. The A&M study was a follow-up to an earlier lighting study that had been conducted by the campus energy office. Base electrical load data was also determined from these tests. This paper presents results of these studies and suggests that the method is attractive to both contractors and facility energy managers as well.

Bryant, J. A.; Carlson, K. A.

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

194

Process Deviation Log  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

AProcess Deviation Log EOTA - Business Form Document Title: P-007, Internal Audit Process Document Number: Audit Action Item Log EOTA Employees Melissa Otero NA Referenced...

195

GRR/Section 6-MT-f - Short-term Water Quality Standard for Turbidity (318  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

GRR/Section 6-MT-f - Short-term Water Quality Standard for Turbidity (318 GRR/Section 6-MT-f - Short-term Water Quality Standard for Turbidity (318 Authorization) < GRR Jump to: navigation, search GRR-logo.png GEOTHERMAL REGULATORY ROADMAP Roadmap Home Roadmap Help List of Sections Section 6-MT-f - Short-term Water Quality Standard for Turbidity (318 Authorization) 06MTFShortTermWaterQualityStandardForTurbidity318Authorization.pdf Click to View Fullscreen Contact Agencies Montana Department of Natural Resources & Conservation Montana Department of Environmental Quality Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks Regulations & Policies MCA 75-5-318 Triggers None specified Click "Edit With Form" above to add content 06MTFShortTermWaterQualityStandardForTurbidity318Authorization.pdf Error creating thumbnail: Page number not in range.

196

Short-Term Carbon Dioxide Exchange and Environmental Factors in a Boreal Fen  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Introduction Northern peatlands are important contributors to the global carbon cycle. In cold and moist climatic conditions, boreal peatlands have sequestered large amounts of atmospheric carbon during the past few thousand years (GORHAM 1991). The carbon balance in mires depends on the rates of photosynthesis and respiration which are affected by both the long-term and the short-term variations in environmental factors. So far, more emphasis has been put on the annual carbon balance of mires, and short-term dynamics have received less attention. However, a relationship between the carbon dioxide and methane cycling has been proposed as newly photosynthesized carbon provides substrates for methanogenesis substrates and promotes methane emissions (WHITING & CHANTON 1993). To analyze the connection between green plant photosynthesis and methane emissions, we need to analyze the short-term dynamics of carbon dioxide exchange. Consequently, we use earlier data (ALM et al. 1997) to study

Anu Kettunen

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

ANN-Based Short-Term Load Forecasting in Electricity Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract—This paper proposes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based short-term load forecasting technique that considers electricity price as one of the main characteristics of the system load, demonstrating the importance of considering pricing when predicting loading in today’s electricity markets. Historical load data from the Ontario Hydro system as well as pricing information from the neighboring system are used for testing, showing the good performance of the proposed method. Keywords: Short-term load forecasting, electricity markets, spot prices, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)

Hong Chen; Claudio A. Cañizares; Ajit Singh

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

198

Short-term effects of Gamma Ray Bursts on oceanic photosynthesis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We continue our previous work on the potential short-term influence of a gamma ray bursts on Earth's biosphere, focusing on the only important short-term effect on life: the ultraviolet flash which occurs as a result of the retransmission of the {\\gamma} radiation through the atmosphere. Thus, in this work we calculate the ultraviolet irradiances penetrating the first hundred meters of the water column, for Jerlov's ocean water types I, II and III. Then we estimate the UV flash potential for photosynthesis inhibition, showing that it can be important in a considerable part of the water column with light enough for photosynthesis to be done, the so called photic zone.

Penate, Liuba; Cardenas, Rolando; Agusti, Susana

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

Short-Term Monitoring to Diagnose Comfort Problems in a Residence in Central Texas  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper presents results from a project to resolve comfort problems created by high indoor humidity in a 3,400 sq.ft. house in Bryan, Texas. The case study house had been certified by the local utility to meet their energy efficiency standards. However, the resident of the house complained that the house felt too humid although the desired temperature conditions were being maintained. Several HVAC contractors had been previously hired to resolve the problem without success. The field measurements undertaken to diagnose the problem are typical of those that could be undertaken by a house inspector and include an inspection of the construction of the house, short-term monitoring of temperature and humidity, blower door tests and whole-house pressurization tests. To perform the analysis both floors of the house were instrumented with portable data loggers and monitored for a period of two weeks to measure the temperature and relative humidity of the supply, return and ambient conditions. Analysis procedures applied to the house include comparing the measured data against the ASHRAE comfort zone (ASHRAE, 1997) which confirmed adequate zone temperatures with high humidity conditions, and inadequate supply air delivery temperatures for humidity removal. Combined results of the blower door tests and whole-house pressurization tests indicated a potential for leakage through the return air duct. After the recommendations were presented to the homeowner, a new contractor was hired and retrofits applied on the house (i.e., cleaning the cooling coils, enlarging the compressor and relining of the return duct). Measurements were then repeated to determine that the problem had been f ~ e d . This paper describes the case study residence, the measurements used to diagnose the problem, analysis methods, and presents results of the application of the analysis.

Kootin-Sanwu, V.; Sresthaputra, A.; Haberl, J. S.

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

Short-Term Supply Chain Management in Upstream Natural Gas Systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consumers LNG Tanker Fleet Regasification Terminals LNGStorage Storage (Long,medium,short-term) Inter. LNG tankers unload the liquid at LNG termi- nals (also called regasification terminals). LNG it to markets or supplied directly to bulk consumers. LNG regasification terminals may also have storage

Barton, Paul I.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "includes short-term deviations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Global Sensitivity Analysis for the Short-term Prediction of System Variables  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

into or withdrawal from the transmission grid. The short-term prediction of LMPs in these regions is important. It is next established analytically that there is a fixed linear-affine mapping between bus load patterns piecewise linear-affine mapping can be used to predict system patterns corresponding to forecasted load

Tesfatsion, Leigh

202

An intelligent ACO-SA approach for short term electricity load prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Intelligent solutions, based on artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, to solve complicated practical problems in various sectors are becoming more and more widespread nowadays. On the other hand, electrical load prediction is one of the important ... Keywords: ant colony optimization, artificial neural networks, intelligent prediction, short-term electricity load prediction, simulated annealing, time series modeling

Arash Ghanbari; Esmaeil Hadavandi; Salman Abbasian-Naghneh

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Other Petroleum Products Consumption Model  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The other petroleum product consumption module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide U.S. consumption forecasts for 6 petroleum product categories: asphalt and road oil, petrochemical feedstocks, petroleum coke, refinery still gas, unfinished oils, and other miscvellaneous products

Tancred Lidderdale

2011-11-30T23:59:59.000Z

204

Short-term wind power forecast based on cluster analysis and artificial neural networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper an architecture for an estimator of short-term wind farm power is proposed. The estimator is made up of a Linear Machine classifier and a set of k Multilayer Perceptrons, training each one for a specific subspace of the input space. ...

Javier Lorenzo; Juan Méndez; Modesto Castrillón; Daniel Hernández

2011-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

205

Real-Time Short-Term Forecasting of Precipitation at an Australian Tropical Station  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of a major real-time trial of techniques for the short-term (12 h ahead) prediction of precipitation for the Australian tropical city of Darwin are described. The trial compared current operational manual forecasting procedures with a ...

K. Fraedrich; L. M. Leslie

1988-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

ANN-based Short-Term Load Forecasting in Electricity Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

ANN-based Short-Term Load Forecasting in Electricity Markets Hong Chen Claudio A. Ca~nizares Ajit forecasting technique that considers electricity price as one of the main characteristics of the system load. B. Makram, "A Hybrid Wavelet- Kalman Filter Method for Load Forecasting," Electric Power Systems

Cañizares, Claudio A.

207

An Analysis of Short-Term Risk in Power System Pricing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The power system planning process will undergo changes as the electric utility industry transforms into a competitive market. This report presents a methodology that uses classical decision analysis, sampling theory, and load forecasting theory to evaluate short-term risk in power system planning.

1999-08-12T23:59:59.000Z

208

Nearest neighbor technique and artificial neural networks for short-term electric consumptions forecast  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Promoting both energy savings and renewable energy development are two objectives of the actual and national French energy policy. In this sense, the present work takes part in a global development of various tools allowing managing energy demand. So, ... Keywords: Kohonen Self-Organizing Map, Multi-Layer Perceptron, Short-Term Electric Consumption, The Nearest Neighbor Technique, Virtual Power Plant

Van Giang Tran; Stéphane Grieu; Monique Polit

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

209

Changes in Natural Gas Monthly Consumption Data Collection and the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Beginning with the December 2010 issue of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EnergyInformation Administration (EIA) will present natural gas consumption forecasts for theresidential and commercial sectors that are consistent with recent changes to the Form EIA-857monthly natural gas survey.

Information Center

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

210

Short-term relationship of total electron content with geomagnetic activity in equatorial regions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Short-term relationship of total electron content with geomagnetic activity in equatorial regions X equatorial ionosphere and geomagnetic activity is examined. Hourly averages of the total electron content for equatorial geomagnetic activity, at three local times (0700­0800, 1200­1300, and 1600­1700 LT) from March

Qiyu, Sun

211

Status and evaluation of hybrid electric vehicle batteries for short term applications. Final report  

SciTech Connect

The objective of this task is to compile information regarding batteries which could be use for electric cars or hybrid vehicles in the short term. More specifically, this study applies lead-acid batteries and nickel-cadmium battery technologies which are more developed than the advanced batteries which are presently being investigated under USABC contracts and therefore more accessible in production efficiency and economies of scale. Moreover, the development of these batteries has advanced the state-of-the-art not only in terms of performance and energy density but also in cost reduction. The survey of lead-acid battery development took the biggest part of the effort, since they are considered more apt to be used in the short-term. Companies pursuing the advancement of lead-acid batteries were not necessarily the major automobile battery manufacturers. Innovation is found more in small or new companies. Other battery systems for short-term are discussed in the last part of this report. We will review the various technologies investigated, their status and prognosis for success in the short term.

Himy, A. [Westinghouse Electric Co., Pittsburgh, PA (United States). Machinery Technology Div.

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

Scanning Doppler Lidar for Input into Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Scanning Doppler lidar is a promising technology for improvements in short-term wind power forecasts since it can scan close to the surface and produce wind profiles at a large distance upstream (15–30 km) if the atmosphere has sufficient aerosol ...

Rod Frehlich

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

Model documentation report: Short-term Integrated Forecasting System demand model 1985. [(STIFS)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) Demand Model consists of a set of energy demand and price models that are used to forecast monthly demand and prices of various energy products up to eight quarters in the future. The STIFS demand model is based on monthly data (unless otherwise noted), but the forecast is published on a quarterly basis. All of the forecasts are presented at the national level, and no regional detail is available. The model discussed in this report is the April 1985 version of the STIFS demand model. The relationships described by this model include: the specification of retail energy prices as a function of input prices, seasonal factors, and other significant variables; and the specification of energy demand by product as a function of price, a measure of economic activity, and other appropriate variables. The STIFS demand model is actually a collection of 18 individual models representing the demand for each type of fuel. The individual fuel models are listed below: motor gasoline; nonutility distillate fuel oil, (a) diesel, (b) nondiesel; nonutility residual fuel oil; jet fuel, kerosene-type and naphtha-type; liquefied petroleum gases; petrochemical feedstocks and ethane; kerosene; road oil and asphalt; still gas; petroleum coke; miscellaneous products; coking coal; electric utility coal; retail and general industry coal; electricity generation; nonutility natural gas; and utility petroleum. The demand estimates produced by these models are used in the STIFS integrating model to produce a full energy balance of energy supply, demand, and stock change. These forecasts are published quarterly in the Outlook. Details of the major changes in the forecasting methodology and an evaluation of previous forecast errors are presented once a year in Volume 2 of the Outlook, the Methodology publication.

Not Available

1985-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

Short Term Irradiation Test of Fuel Containing Minor Actinides Using the Experimental Fast Reactor Joyo  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A mixed oxide containing minor actinides (MA-MOX) fuel irradiation program is being conducted using the experimental fast rector Joyo of the Japan Atomic Energy Agency to research early thermal behavior of MA-MOX fuel. Two irradiation experiments were conducted as part of the short-term phase of this program in May and August 2006. Six prepared fuel pins included MOX fuel containing 3% or 5% americium (Am-MOX), and MOX fuel containing 2% americium and 2% neptunium (Np/Am-MOX). The first test was conducted with high linear heat rates of approximately 430 W/cm maintained during only 10 minutes. After 10 minutes irradiation test, the test subassembly was transferred to the hot cell facility and an Am-MOX pin and a Np/Am-MOX pin were replaced with dummy pins with neutron dosimeters. The test subassembly loaded with the remaining four fuel pins was re-irradiated in Joyo for 24-hours in August 2006 at nearly the same linear power to obtain re-distribution data on MA-MOX fuel. The linear heat rate for each MA-MOX test fuel pin was calculated using the Monte Carlo calculation code MCNP. The calculated fission rates were compared with the measured data based on the Nd-148 method. The maximum linear heat rate was approximately 444{+-}19 W/cm at the actual reactor power of 119.6 MWt. Post irradiation examination of these pins to confirm the absence of fuel melting and the local concentration under irradiation of NpO{sub 2-x} or AmO{sub 2-x}, in the (U,Pu)0{sub 2-x}, fuel are underway. The test results are expected to reduce uncertainties on the margin in the thermal design for MA-MOX fuel. (authors)

Sekine, Takashi; Soga, Tomonori; Koyama, Shin-ichi; Aoyama, Takafumi [Oarai Research and Development Center, Japan Atomic Energy Agency. 4002 Narita, Oarai, Ibaraki 311-1393 (Japan); Wootan, David [Pacific Northwest National Laboratoy, M/S K8-34, P.O. Box 999 Richland, WA 99352 (United States)

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

Appendix D Short-Term Analysis of Refinery Costs and Supply  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Short-Term Analysis of Refinery Costs and Supply 9302 Appendix D Short-Term Analysis of Refinery Costs and Supply As a result of the new regulations issued by the U.S. Estimating Components of the Distillate Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for ultra-low- Blend Pool sulfur diesel fuel (ULSD) the U.S. refining industry faces two major challenges: to meet the more stringent specifi- The initial step of the analysis was to analyze the poten- cations for diesel product, and to keep up with demand tial economics of producing ULSD for each refinery. by producing more diesel product from feedstocks of Using input and output data submitted to the Energy lower quality. Some refineries in the United States and Information Administration (E1A) by refiners, the cur-

216

Session 4: "Short-Term Energy Prices - What Drivers Matter Most?"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

4: "Short-Term Energy Prices - What Drivers Matter Most?" 4: "Short-Term Energy Prices - What Drivers Matter Most?" Speakers: Howard K. Gruenspecht, EIA David M. Arseneau, Federal Reserve Board Guy F. Caruso, Center for Strategic and International Studies Christopher Ellsworth, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Edward L. Morse, Credit Suisse Securities [Note: Recorders did not pick up introduction of panel (see biographies for details on the panelists) or introduction of session.] Howard: And this presentation could not be more timely, given current developments in oil and natural gas markets and the start of the traditional summer driving season. In discussions of rapidly rising oil prices leading to a peak of $147 per barrel in the summer of 2008, the factors that were traditionally the focus of EIA's

217

Record of Decision for BPA Short-Term Marketing and Operating Arrangements (1/31/96)  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

0 0 Federal Register / Vol. 61, No. 21 / Wednesday, January 31, 1996 / Notices Bonneville Power Administration Notice of Availability of Record of Decision for Short-Term Marketing and Operating Arrangements AGENCY: Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), Department of Energy (DOE). ACTION: Notice of Availability of Record of Decision (ROD). SUMMARY: BPA has decided to enter into short-term marketing and operational arrangements in order to participate continuously in the open electric power market. These arrangements would enable BPA to achieve the best reliability and expected economic outcome, as well as to best meet its environmental responsibilities, given diverse market conditions. This decision would support power cost control, enhance BPA competitiveness, and provide public benefits. The

218

Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, 2nd quarter 1994  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the second quarter of 1994 through the fourth quarter of 1995. Values for the first quarter of 1994, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available. The historical energy data, compiled into the second quarter 1994 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The cases are produced using the STIFS. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. The EIA model is available on computer tape from the National Technical Information Service.

Not Available

1994-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

Dispersants for Tube Fouling Control: Volume 2: Short-Term Trial at ANO-2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Dispersants have been used for several decades in fossil boiler units to inhibit corrosion product deposition in the boiler. However, until recently, a dispersant of sufficient purity had not been available for nuclear application. This report summarizes the methodology and results of the full-scale, short-term trial of a high-purity, high molecular weight BetzDearborn polyacrylic acid (PAA) dispersant for steam generator deposit control in the secondary system of Arkansas Nuclear One Unit 2 (ANO-2).

2001-09-24T23:59:59.000Z

220

Biodiesel Supply and Consumption in the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The historical biodiesel consumption data published in the EIA Monthly Energy Review (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/contents.html) March 2009 edition were revised to account for imports and exports. Table 10.4 of the Monthly Energy Review was expanded to display biodiesel imports, exports, stocks, stock change, and consumption. Similar revisions were made in the April 2009 edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

Information Center

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "includes short-term deviations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Short-Term Aging of Polymer Insulators: Dissection of Samples Aged in a Dry Environment  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For many years, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has performed large-scale aging tests on polymer insulators and has evaluated many polymer insulators that have been removed from service, in an effort to understand what the aging factors are. EPRI has learned that a significant aging factor is corona discharge activity and has therefore developed a test that focuses on how corona discharge activity degrades polymer insulators. This report highlights the latest development of a short-term ...

2013-12-18T23:59:59.000Z

222

Short Term Aging of Polymer Insulators: Impact of High Humidity Environment  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For many years, EPRI has performed large scale aging tests on polymer insulators and evaluated many polymer insulators removed from service in an effort to understand what the aging factors are. EPRI has learned that a significant aging factor is corona discharge activity and has developed a test that focuses on how corona discharge activity degrades polymer insulators. This report highlights the latest development of a short-term aging test designed to assess how well a polymer insulator can ...

2012-12-20T23:59:59.000Z

223

Comparisons of Short Term Load Forecasting using Artificial Neural Network and Regression Method  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In power systems the next day’s power generation must be scheduled every day, day ahead short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a necessary daily task for power dispatch. Its accuracy affects the economic operation and reliability of the system greatly. Under prediction of STLF leads to insufficient reserve capacity preparation and in turn, increases the operating cost by using expensive peaking units. On the other hand, over prediction of STLF leads to the unnecessarily large reserve capacity, which is also related to high operating cost. the research work in this area is still a challenge to the electrical engineering scholars because of its high complexity. How to estimate the future load with the historical data has remained a difficulty up to now, especially for the load forecasting of holidays, days with extreme weather and other anomalous days. With the recent development of new mathematical, data mining and artificial intelligence tools, it is potentially possible to improve the forecasting result. This paper presents a new neural network based approach for short-term load forecasting that uses the most correlated weather data for training, validating and testing the neural network. Correlation analysis of weather data determines the input parameters of the neural networks. And its results compare to regression method. Index terms Load Forecasting, artificial neural network, short term

Mr. Rajesh Deshmukh; Dr. Amita Mahor

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

Short-term Wind Power Prediction for Offshore Wind Farms -Evaluation of Fuzzy-Neural Network Based Models  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Short-term Wind Power Prediction for Offshore Wind Farms - Evaluation of Fuzzy-Neural Network Based of wind power capacities are likely to take place offshore. As for onshore wind parks, short-term wind of offshore farms and their secure integration to the grid. Modeling the behavior of large wind farms

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

225

Short-Term Schedulability Analysis of Crude Oil Operations in Refinery With Oil Residency Time Constraint Using Petri Nets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A short-term schedule for oil refinery should arrange all the activities in every detail for the whole scheduling horizon, leading to a complex problem. There lacks efficient techniques and software tools for its solution applicable to industrial oil ... Keywords: Automated manufacturing system, Petri net (PN), hybrid Petri net, oil refinery, scheduling, short-term scheduling

NaiQi Wu; Feng Chu; Chengbin Chu; MengChu Zhou

2008-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

226

322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS. VOL. 25. NO. I. FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting: Similar  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

for Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting," IEEE Trans. PWRS, vol. 11, no. 1, Feb. 1996, pp. 397-402. [4Short-Term Load Forecasting by Feed-Forward Neural Networks Saied S. Sharif1 , James H. Taylor2) is presented for the hourly load forecasting of the coming days. In this approach, 24 independent networks

Luh, Peter

227

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

Information Center

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

228

Results of short-term corrosion evaluation tests at Raft River  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Four categories of short-term materials evaluation tests were conducted in geothermal fluid from Raft River Geothermal Experiment, Well No. 1, to obtain corrosion data relevant to the design of the Raft River Thermal Loop Facility. Test programs are described and the testing philosophies are discussed. All materials and configurations which were tested are identified and details of posttest visual examinations are presented. The materials are then assigned to appropriate performance categories on the basis of test behavior, and the possible service limitations are appraised.

Miller, R.L.

1977-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

229

(Short-term assays for detecting environmental mutagens, carcinogens, and teratogens)  

SciTech Connect

The traveler attended the Second Southeast Asian Workshop on Short-Term Assays for detecting Environmental Mutagens, Carcinogens, and Teratogens and presented a lecture on his work with transgenic mice. The work shop was sponsored by the Thai National Cancer Institute and was designed to acquaint scientists in Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries with the principles and state-of-the-art methods for detecting genotoxic agents. Many of the prominent scientists lecturing at the workshop, as well as several of the participants, expressed strong support for the short-term in vivo genotoxicity assays in transgenic mice that are currently under development in the traveler's laboratory in the Biology Division at ORNL. The traveler also participated in a panel discussion sponsored by the Thai Science and Technology Development Board (STDP) on the development of molecular biology programs at the universities in Thailand. After two weeks in Thailand, the traveler flew to the Philippines with several other American scientists to spend two days visiting the University of the Philippines, meeting with students and faculty, and presenting a lecture on his work with transgenic mice.

Woychik, R.P.

1989-03-08T23:59:59.000Z

230

Interpretation of a Short-Term Anomaly in the Gravitational Microlensing Event MOA-2012-BLG-486  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A planetary microlensing signal is generally characterized by a short-term perturbation to the standard single lensing light curve. A subset of binary-source events can produce perturbations that mimic planetary signals, thereby introducing an ambiguity between the planetary and binary-source interpretations. In this paper, we present analysis of the microlensing event MOA-2012-BLG-486, for which the light curve exhibits a short-lived perturbation. Routine modeling not considering data taken in different passbands yields a best-fit planetary model that is slightly preferred over the best-fit binary-source model. However, when allowed for a change in the color during the perturbation, we find that the binary-source model yields a significantly better fit and thus the degeneracy is clearly resolved. This event not only signifies the importance of considering various interpretations of short-term anomalies, but also demonstrates the importance of multi-band data for checking the possibility of false-positive pla...

Hwang, K -H; Bond, I A; Sumi, T; Han, C; Gaudi, B S; Gould, A; Bozza, V; Beaulieu, J -P; Tsapras, Y; Abe, F; Bennett, D P; Botzler, C S; Chote, P; Freeman, M; Fukui, A; Fukunaga, D; Harris, P; Itow, Y; Koshimoto, N; Ling, C H; Masuda, K; Matsubara, Y; Muraki, Y; Namba, S; Ohnishi, K; Rattenbury, N J; Saito, To; Sullivan, D J; Sweatman, W L; Suzuki, D; Tristram, P J; Wada, K; Yamai, N; Yock, P C M; Yonehara, A; de Almeida, L Andrade; DePoy, D L; Dong, Subo; Jablonski, F; Jung, Y K; Kavka, A; Lee, C -U; Park, H; Pogge, R W; Shin, I -G; Yee, J C; Albrow, M D; Bachelet, E; Batista, V; Brillant, S; Caldwell, J A R; Cassan, A; Cole, A; Corrales, E; Coutures, Ch; Dieters, S; Prester, D Dominis; Donatowicz, J; Fouqué, P; Greenhill, J; Jørgensen, U G; Kane, S R; Kubas, D; Marquette, J -B; Martin, R; Meintjes, P; Menzies, J; Pollard, K R; Williams, A; Wouters, D; Bramich, D M; Dominik, M; Horne, K; Browne, P; Hundertmark, M; Ipatov, S; Kains, N; Snodgrass, C; Steele, I A; Street, R A

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

The Effect of Soil Moisture on the Short-Term Climate and Hydrology Change—A Numerical Experiment  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes a series of numerical experiments simulating the effect of large-scale irrigation on short-term changes of hydrology and climate. This is done through the use of a simple general circulation model, with a limited ...

T-C. Yeh; R. T. Wetherald; S. Manabe

1984-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

232

Short-Term Climate Variability and Atmospheric Teleconnections from Satellite-Observed Outgoing Longwave Radiation. Part I: Simultaneous Relationships  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Satellite-inferred short-term climate variability and atmospheric teleconnections are studied using seven years (1974–81) of Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data from NOAA polar orbiters. This study utilizes composite, partition-of-variance and ...

Ka-Ming Lau; Paul H. Chan

1983-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

233

A Survey of the Rates and Products of Short-Term Photosynthesis in Plants of 9 Phyla  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of alanine D. 5 min. photosynthesis squash showing absencePRODUCTS OF SHORT-TERM PHOTOSYNTHESIS I N PLANTS OF 9 PHYLATable III A. 5 min. photosynthesis Fontinalis showing high

Calvin, M.; Norris, R.E.; Norris, Louisa

1954-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

234

An Investigation of the Short-Term Predictability of Precipitation Using High-Resolution Composite Radar Observations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The short-term predictability of precipitation patterns observed by meteorological radar is an important concept as it establishes a means to characterize precipitation and provides an upper limit on the extent of useful nowcasting. Predictability ...

Evan Ruzanski; V. Chandrasekar

2012-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

Application of a dynamic-stochastic approach to short-term forecasting of the atmospheric boundary layer.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A two-dimensional, dynamic-stochastic model presented in this study is used for short-term forecasting of vertical profiles of air temperature and wind velocity orthogonal components in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). The technique of using ...

V. S. Komarov; A. V. Lavrinenko; N. Ya. Lomakina; S. N. Il’in

236

Using futures prices to filter short-term volatility and recover a latent, long-term price series for oil  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Oil prices are very volatile. But much of this volatility seems to reflect short-term,transitory factors that may have little or no influence on the price in the long run. Many major investment decisions should be guided ...

Herce, Miguel Angel

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

237

Implications of Wide-Area Geographic Diversity for Short- Term Variability of Solar Power  

SciTech Connect

Worldwide interest in the deployment of photovoltaic generation (PV) is rapidly increasing. Operating experience with large PV plants, however, demonstrates that large, rapid changes in the output of PV plants are possible. Early studies of PV grid impacts suggested that short-term variability could be a potential limiting factor in deploying PV. Many of these early studies, however, lacked high-quality data from multiple sites to assess the costs and impacts of increasing PV penetration. As is well known for wind, accounting for the potential for geographic diversity can significantly reduce the magnitude of extreme changes in aggregated PV output, the resources required to accommodate that variability, and the potential costs of managing variability. We use measured 1-min solar insolation for 23 time-synchronized sites in the Southern Great Plains network of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program and wind speed data from 10 sites in the same network to characterize the variability of PV with different degrees of geographic diversity and to compare the variability of PV to the variability of similarly sited wind. The relative aggregate variability of PV plants sited in a dense 10 x 10 array with 20 km spacing is six times less than the variability of a single site for variability on time scales less than 15-min. We find in our analysis of wind and PV plants similarly sited in a 5 x 5 grid with 50 km spacing that the variability of PV is only slightly more than the variability of wind on time scales of 5-15 min. Over shorter and longer time scales the level of variability is nearly identical. Finally, we use a simple approximation method to estimate the cost of carrying additional reserves to manage sub-hourly variability. We conclude that the costs of managing the short-term variability of PV are dramatically reduced by geographic diversity and are not substantially different from the costs for managing the short-term variability of similarly sited wind in this region.

Mills, Andrew; Wiser, Ryan

2010-08-23T23:59:59.000Z

238

EVALUATING SHORT-TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE LATE HOLOCENE OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This literature study investigated methods and areas to deduce climate change and climate patterns, looking for short-term cycle phenomena and the means to interpret them. Many groups are actively engaged in intensive climate-related research. Ongoing research might be (overly) simplified into three categories: (1) historic data on weather that can be used for trend analysis and modeling; (2) detailed geological, biological (subfossil), and analytical (geochemical, radiocarbon, etc.) studies covering the last 10,000 years (about since last glaciation); and (3) geological, paleontological, and analytical (geochemical, radiometric, etc.) studies over millions of years. Of importance is our ultimate ability to join these various lines of inquiry into an effective means of interpretation. At this point, the process of integration is fraught with methodological troubles and misconceptions about what each group can contribute. This project has met its goals to the extent that it provided an opportunity to study resource materials and consider options for future effort toward the goal of understanding the natural climate variation that has shaped our current civilization. A further outcome of this project is a proposed methodology based on ''climate sections'' that provides spatial and temporal correlation within a region. The method would integrate cultural and climate data to establish the climate history of a region with increasing accuracy with progressive study and scientific advancement (e. g., better integration of regional and global models). The goal of this project is to better understand natural climatic variations in the recent past (last 5000 years). The information generated by this work is intended to provide better context within which to examine global climate change. The ongoing project will help to establish a basis upon which to interpret late Holocene short-term climate variability as evidenced in various studies in the northern Great Plains, northern hemisphere, and elsewhere. Finally these data can be integrated into a history of climate change and predictive climate models. This is not a small undertaking. The goals of researchers and the methods used vary considerably. The primary task of this project was literature research to (1) evaluate existing methodologies used in geologic climate change studies and evidence for short-term cycles produced by these methodologies and (2) evaluate late Holocene climate patterns and their interpretations.

Joseph H. Hartman

1999-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

239

Microsoft Word - Alcoa_short-term_amendments2_CX.docx  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Mark Miller Mark Miller Account Executive, Long-term Sales and Purchases - PT-5 Proposed Action: Short-term Additional Amendments to the Alcoa Power Sales Agreement Categorical Exclusion Applied (from Subpart D, 10 C.F.R. Part 1021): A2 - Clarifying or administrative contract actions Location: Portland, OR and Ferndale, WA Proposed by: Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) Description of the Proposed Action: BPA proposes to execute one or more additional amendments to its existing 2009 Power Sales Agreement (Agreement) with Alcoa, Inc. (Alcoa) to further extend the Agreement's Initial Period provisions. The current date for expiration of these provisions under the most recent amendment (Amendment Number 4) is September 30, 2012. The current proposal involves executing one or more additional

240

DOBEIA-0202(83/4Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

DOBEIA-0202(83/4Q) DOBEIA-0202(83/4Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections November 1983 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t rt jrt .ort lort .lort lort lort lort <.ort ort Tt- .-m .erm -Term -Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Nrm ,iergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short Short Short Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short Short Short Short Short-

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241

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

‹ Analysis & Projections ‹ Analysis & Projections Short-Term Energy Outlook Release Date: December 10, 2013 | Next Release Date: January 7, 2014 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures Glossary › FAQS › Overview STEO Report Highlights Prices Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Coal Electricity Renewables and CO2 Emissions U.S. Economic Assumptions Data Figures Tables Custom Table Builder Real Prices Viewer Forecast Changes (PDF) Special Analysis Price Uncertainty Highlights After falling by more than 40 cents per gallon from the beginning of September through mid-November, weekly U.S. average regular gasoline retail prices increased by 8 cents per gallon to reach $3.27 per gallon on December 2, 2013, due in part to unplanned refinery maintenance and higher

242

DOE/EIA-0202(85/1Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1Q) 1Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections January 1985 Published: February 1985 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t rt jrt .ort lort lort lort nort lort *.ort ort Tt .m .erm -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term uergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short Short

243

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Release Schedule Release Schedule Release Date. The Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) scheduling procedure calls for the release of the STEO on the first Tuesday following the first Thursday of each month. For example, since the first Thursday of July 2009 was July 2, under this plan, the July edition was released on Tuesday, July 7. If a Federal holiday falls on the Monday before the normal release date the release is delayed until Wednesday. There may be the occasional unusual delay in the release because of scheduling around other events, such as the annual EIA Conference in April 2009. Barring holidays or unusual rescheduling, the STEO will normally appear between the 6th and the 12th of the month. Any unforeseen scheduling adjustments will be posted here and/or on the STEO homepage.

244

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Special Analysis Special Analysis + EXPAND ALL Feature Articles Status of Libyan Loading Ports and Oil and Natural Gas Fields September 2013 PDF EIA Estimates of Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply Disruptions September 2013 PDF 2013 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico Hurricane-Related Production Outages June 2013 PDF Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills June 2013 PDF Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook February 2013 PDF Constraints in New England likely to affect regional energy prices this winter January 2013 PDF Change in STEO Regional and U.S. Degree Day Calculations September 2012 PDF Changes to Electricity and Renewables Tables August 2012 PDF Brent Crude Oil Spot Price Forecast July 2012 PDF 2012 Outlook for Hurricane-Related Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico June 2012 PDF

245

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

‹ Analysis & Projections ‹ Analysis & Projections Short-Term Energy Outlook Release Date: December 10, 2013 | Next Release Date: January 7, 2014 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures Glossary › FAQS › Overview STEO Report Highlights Prices Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Coal Electricity Renewables and CO2 Emissions U.S. Economic Assumptions Data Figures Tables Custom Table Builder Real Prices Viewer Forecast Changes (PDF) Special Analysis Price Uncertainty Custom Table Builder Frequency: Annual Monthly Quarterly Select a Year Range: 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 to 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

246

Measuring Short-term Air Conditioner Demand Reductions for Operations and Settlement  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

330E 330E Measuring Short-term Air Conditioner Demand Reductions for Operations and Settlement Josh Bode, Michael Sullivan, Joseph H. Eto January 2012 The work described in this report was funded by the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02- 05CH11231. ERNEST ORLANDO LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY Disclaimer This document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the United States Government. While this document is believed to contain correct information, neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor The Regents of the University of California, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or

247

QUARTER SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK QUARTERLY PROJECTIONS ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1Q) 1Q) 1991 1 QUARTER SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK QUARTERLY PROJECTIONS ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION February 1991 This publication may be purchased from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Purchasing in formation for this or other Energy Information Administration (EIA) publications may be obtained from the Government Printing Office or ElA's National Energy Information Center. Questions on energy statistics should be directed to the Center by mail, telephone, or telecommunications device for the hearing impaired. Addresses, telephone numbers, and hours are as follows: National Energy Information Center, El-231 Energy Information Administration Forrestal Building, Room 1F-048 Washington, DC 20585 (202) 586-8800 Telecommunications Device for the

248

Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

249

DOE/EIA-0202(84/4Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4Q) 4Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections October 1984 Published: November 1984 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t rt jrt .ort lort iort lort iort lort \ort ort Tt .erm Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term -Term -Term xrm nergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short- Short Short- Short- Short Short Short Short Short Short

250

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Market Prices and Uncertainty Report Market Prices and Uncertainty Report This is a regular monthly supplement to the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook. Contact: James Preciado (James.Preciado@eia.gov) Full Report Crude Oil Prices: International crude oil benchmarks moved higher in November, showing their first month-over-month increase since August, while U.S. crude oil prices moved higher during the first week of December. The North Sea Brent front month futures price settled at $110.98 per barrel on December 5, an increase of $5.07 per barrel since its close on November 1 (Figure 1). The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) front month futures contract rose $2.77 per barrel compared to November 1, settling at $97.38 per barrel on December 5. Figure 1: Historical crude oil front month futures prices

251

Freeway Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting by Considering Traffic Volatility Dynamics and Missing Data Situations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Short-term traffic flow forecasting is a critical function in advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) and advanced traveler information systems (ATIS). Accurate forecasting results are useful to indicate future traffic conditions and assist traffic managers in seeking solutions to congestion problems on urban freeways and surface streets. There is new research interest in short-term traffic flow forecasting due to recent developments in ITS technologies. Previous research involves technologies in multiple areas, and a significant number of forecasting methods exist in literature. However, forecasting reliability is not properly addressed in existing studies. Most forecasting methods only focus on the expected value of traffic flow, assuming constant variance when perform forecasting. This method does not consider the volatility nature of traffic flow data. This paper demonstrated that the variance part of traffic flow data is not constant, and dependency exists. A volatility model studies the dependency among the variance part of traffic flow data and provides a prediction range to indicate the reliability of traffic flow forecasting. We proposed an ARIMA-GARCH (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average- AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) model to study the volatile nature of traffic flow data. Another problem of existing studies is that most methods have limited forecasting abilities when there is missing data in historical or current traffic flow data. We developed a General Regression Neural Network(GRNN) based multivariate forecasting method to deal with this issue. This method uses upstream information to predict traffic flow at the studied site. The study results indicate that the ARIMA-GARCH model outperforms other methods in non-missing data situations, while the GRNN model performs better in missing data situations.

Zhang, Yanru

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

252

Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The operators of electrical grids, sometimes referred to as Balancing Authorities (BA), typically make critical decisions on how to most reliably and economically balance electrical load and generation in time frames ranging from a few minutes to six hours ahead. At higher levels of wind power generation, there is an increasing need to improve the accuracy of 0- to 6-hour ahead wind power forecasts. Forecasts on this time scale have typically been strongly dependent on short-term trends indicated by the time series of power production and meteorological data from a wind farm. Additional input information is often available from the output of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and occasionally from off-site meteorological towers in the region surrounding the wind generation facility. A widely proposed approach to improve short-term forecasts is the deployment of off-site meteorological towers at locations upstream from the wind generation facility in order to sense approaching wind perturbations. While conceptually appealing, it turns out that, in practice, it is often very difficult to derive significant benefit in forecast performance from this approach. The difficulty is rooted in the fact that the type, scale, and amplitude of the processes controlling wind variability at a site change from day to day if not from hour to hour. Thus, a location that provides some useful forecast information for one time may not be a useful predictor a few hours later. Indeed, some processes that cause significant changes in wind power production operate predominantly in the vertical direction and thus cannot be monitored by employing a network of sensors at off-site locations. Hence, it is very challenging to determine the type of sensors and deployment locations to get the most benefit for a specific short-term forecast application. Two tools recently developed in the meteorological research community have the potential to help determine the locations and parameters to measure in order to get the maximum positive impact on forecast performance for a particular site and short-term look-ahead period. Both tools rely on the use of NWP models to assess the sensitivity of a forecast for a particular location to measurements made at a prior time (i.e. the look-ahead period) at points surrounding the target location. The fundamental hypothesis is that points and variables with high sensitivity are good candidates for measurements since information at those points are likely to have the most impact on the forecast for the desired parameter, location and look-ahead period. One approach is called the adjoint method (Errico and Vukicevic, 1992; Errico, 1997) and the other newer approach is known as Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA; Ancell and Hakim 2007; Torn and Hakim 2008). Both approaches have been tested on large-scale atmospheric prediction problems (e.g. forecasting pressure or precipitation over a relatively large region 24 hours ahead) but neither has been applied to mesoscale space-time scales of winds or any other variables near the surface of the earth. A number of factors suggest that ESA is better suited for short-term wind forecasting applications. One of the most significant advantages of this approach is that it is not necessary to linearize the mathematical representation of the processes in the underlying atmospheric model as required by the adjoint approach. Such a linearization may be especially problematic for the application of short-term forecasting of boundary layer winds in complex terrain since non-linear shifts in the structure of boundary layer due to atmospheric stability changes are a critical part of the wind power production forecast problem. The specific objective of work described in this paper is to test the ESA as a tool to identify measurement locations and variables that have the greatest positive impact on the accuracy of wind forecasts in the 0- to 6-hour look-ahead periods for the wind generation area of California's Tehachapi Pass during the warm (high generation) season. The paper is organized

Zack, J; Natenberg, E; Young, S; Manobianco, J; Kamath, C

2010-02-21T23:59:59.000Z

253

Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The operators of electrical grids, sometimes referred to as Balancing Authorities (BA), typically make critical decisions on how to most reliably and economically balance electrical load and generation in time frames ranging from a few minutes to six hours ahead. At higher levels of wind power generation, there is an increasing need to improve the accuracy of 0- to 6-hour ahead wind power forecasts. Forecasts on this time scale have typically been strongly dependent on short-term trends indicated by the time series of power production and meteorological data from a wind farm. Additional input information is often available from the output of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and occasionally from off-site meteorological towers in the region surrounding the wind generation facility. A widely proposed approach to improve short-term forecasts is the deployment of off-site meteorological towers at locations upstream from the wind generation facility in order to sense approaching wind perturbations. While conceptually appealing, it turns out that, in practice, it is often very difficult to derive significant benefit in forecast performance from this approach. The difficulty is rooted in the fact that the type, scale, and amplitude of the processes controlling wind variability at a site change from day to day if not from hour to hour. Thus, a location that provides some useful forecast information for one time may not be a useful predictor a few hours later. Indeed, some processes that cause significant changes in wind power production operate predominantly in the vertical direction and thus cannot be monitored by employing a network of sensors at off-site locations. Hence, it is very challenging to determine the type of sensors and deployment locations to get the most benefit for a specific short-term forecast application. Two tools recently developed in the meteorological research community have the potential to help determine the locations and parameters to measure in order to get the maximum positive impact on forecast performance for a particular site and short-term look-ahead period. Both tools rely on the use of NWP models to assess the sensitivity of a forecast for a particular location to measurements made at a prior time (i.e. the look-ahead period) at points surrounding the target location. The fundamental hypothesis is that points and variables with high sensitivity are good candidates for measurements since information at those points are likely to have the most impact on the forecast for the desired parameter, location and look-ahead period. One approach is called the adjoint method (Errico and Vukicevic, 1992; Errico, 1997) and the other newer approach is known as Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA; Ancell and Hakim 2007; Torn and Hakim 2008). Both approaches have been tested on large-scale atmospheric prediction problems (e.g. forecasting pressure or precipitation over a relatively large region 24 hours ahead) but neither has been applied to mesoscale space-time scales of winds or any other variables near the surface of the earth. A number of factors suggest that ESA is better suited for short-term wind forecasting applications. One of the most significant advantages of this approach is that it is not necessary to linearize the mathematical representation of the processes in the underlying atmospheric model as required by the adjoint approach. Such a linearization may be especially problematic for the application of short-term forecasting of boundary layer winds in complex terrain since non-linear shifts in the structure of boundary layer due to atmospheric stability changes are a critical part of the wind power production forecast problem. The specific objective of work described in this paper is to test the ESA as a tool to identify measurement locations and variables that have the greatest positive impact on the accuracy of wind forecasts in the 0- to 6-hour look-ahead periods for the wind generation area of California's Tehachapi Pass during the warm (high generation) season. The paper is organized

Zack, J; Natenberg, E; Young, S; Manobianco, J; Kamath, C

2010-02-21T23:59:59.000Z

254

Core structure heat-up and material relocation in a BWR short-term station blackout accident  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents an analytical and numerical analysis which evaluates the core-structure heat-up and subsequent relocation of molten core materials during a NWR short-term station blackout accident with ADS. A simplified one-dimensional approach coupled with bounding arguments is first presented to establish an estimate of the temperature differences within a BWR assembly at the point when structural material first begins to melt. This analysis leads to the conclusions that the control blade will be the first structure to melt and that at this point in time, overall temperature differences across the canister-blade region will not be more than 200 K. Next, a three-dimensional heat-transfer model of the canister-blade region within the core is presented that uses a diffusion approximation for the radiation heat transfer. This is compared to the one-dimensional analysis to establish its compatibility. Finally, the extension of the three-dimensional model to include melt relocation using a porous media type approximation is described. The results of this analysis suggest that under these conditions significant amounts of material will relocate to the core plate region and refreeze, potentially forming a significant blockage. The results also indicate that a large amount of lateral spreading of the melted blade and canister material into the fuel rod regions will occur during the melt progression process. 22 refs., 18 figs., 1 tab.

Schmidt, R.C.; Dosanjh, S.S.

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

255

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

STEO Archives STEO Archives Previous Short-Term Energy Outlook reports are available in the original Adobe Acrobat PDF file with text, charts, and tables, or just the monthly data tables in an Excel file. + EXPAND ALL 2013 STEO Issues Release Date Full PDF Report Excel Data File Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty December 2013 12/10/2013 dec13.pdf dec13_base.xlsx dec13_uncertainty.pdf November 2013 11/13/2013 nov13.pdf nov13_base.xlsx nov13_uncertainty.pdf October 2013 10/08/2013 oct13.pdf oct13_base.xlsx oct13_uncertainty.pdf September 2013 09/10/2013 sep13.pdf sep13_base.xlsx sep13_uncertainty.pdf August 2013 08/06/2013 aug13.pdf aug13_base.xlsx aug13_uncertainty.pdf July 2013 07/09/2013 jul13.pdf jul13_base.xlsx jul13_uncertainty.pdf

256

Daily/Hourly Hydrosystem Operation : How the Columbia River System Responds to Short-Term Needs.  

SciTech Connect

The System Operation Review, being conducted by the Bonneville Power Administration, the US Army Corps of Engineers, and the US Bureau of Reclamation, is analyzing current and potential future operations of the Columbia River System. One goal of the System Operations Review is to develop a new System Operation Strategy. The strategy will be designed to balance the many regionally and nationally important uses of the Columbia River system. Short-term operations address the dynamics that affect the Northwest hydro system and its multiple uses. Demands for electrical power and natural streamflows change constantly and thus are not precisely predictable. Other uses of the hydro system have constantly changing needs, too, many of which can interfere with other uses. Project operators must address various river needs, physical limitations, weather, and streamflow conditions while maintaining the stability of the electric system and keeping your lights on. It takes staffing around the clock to manage the hour-to-hour changes that occur and the challenges that face project operators all the time.

Columbia River System Operation Review (U.S.)

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

Biological monitoring of oil shale products and effluents using short-term genetic analyses  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The long-term health hazards such as mutagenesis, carcinogenesis, and teratogenesis due to the exposure to crude shale oil, particulate pollutants, and the leachates from raw or spent shale constitute a major concern in the development of shale oil technology. In order to monitor such biological effects, we have applied short-term genetic analyses with the exemplary test materials. The Salmonella/microsomal activation system (Ames assay) was generally applicable but only upon chemical fractionation. The Stedman liquid-liquid extraction procedure or the Sephadex gel filtration (LH-20) technique were effectively utilized. Mutagenicity analyses with various crude oils and product water have revealed biological activity in the basic (aromatic amine fractions) or in the neutral (polyaromatic hydrocarbon fraction) fractions. Extracts and chromatographically isolated materials from raw and spent shale were subjected to mutagenicity studies. Mutagenic activity was noted and correlates with the biological activity of compounds that are either identified or predicted to occur in these materials. Comparison to other energy technologies and overall health hazard of the test materials are discussed.

Rao, T.K.; Epler, J.L.; Schmidt-Collerus, J.J.; Leffler, L.; Guerin, M.R.

1979-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

Summary Short?Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants’ adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energyrelated financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the marketclearing process for risk transfer can be used to generate “price bands ” around observed futures prices for crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities. These bands provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty regarding the range in which markets expect prices to trade. The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) publishes “base case ” projections for a variety of energy prices that go out 12 to 24 months (every January the STEO forecast is extended through December of the following year). EIA has recognized that all price forecasts are highly uncertain and has described the uncertainty by identifying the market factors that may significantly move prices away from their expected paths, such as economic growth, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) behavior, geo-political events, and hurricanes.

unknown authors

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

ACL Reconstruction with Autologous Hamstring Tendon: Comparison of Short Term Clinical Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Purpose: To compare the short term clinical results of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction with autologous hamstring tendon between Rigid-fix and PINN-ACL Cross Pin for femoral side fixation. Materials and Methods: 127 patients who underwent arthroscopic ACL reconstruction using autologous hamstring tendon and had been followedup for over than one year were enrolled for the present study. Rigid-fix was used in 71 cases (group 1), and PINN-ACL Cross Pin was used in 56 cases (group 2). Clinical and radiological results, operation time, and perioperative complications were compared amongst the two groups. Results: The International Knee Documentation Committee subjective score and Lysholm score were 94 and 95 in group 1 and 87 and 91 in group 2, with no statistical difference (p=0.892, p=0.833), respectively. However, significant difference was observed in one-leg hop test between the two groups (p=0.032). Five cases in group 1 and 40 cases in group 2 were found to be associated with perioperative complications with statistical difference (p<0.0001). Conclusions: There was no resultant difference between the employment of PINN-ACL Cross Pin and Rigid-fix as femoral graft fixation for ACL reconstruction with hamstring tendon. However, PINN-ACL Cross Pin led to complications with extensive operation times. Hence, it needs further improvement of tools for minimization of complications. Key words: Anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction, Hamstring tendon, Rigid-fix, PINN-ACL Cross Pin.

Knee Surg; Relat Res; Between Rigid-fix; Pinn-acl Cross Pin

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

Model documentation of the Short-Term Coal Analysis System. Volume 2. Model description. [SCOAL  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This is the second of three volumes of documentation for the Short-Term Coal Analysis System (SCOAL) developed by the Coal Data Analysis and Forecasting Branch, Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric, and Alternate Fuels. The principal aim of SCOAL is to project on a quarterly basis the likely contribution of each of the 26 major bituminous coal, lignite, and anthracite producing states to total US production. A secondary objective is to estimate a companion demand-side aggregated by region but disaggregated by end-use sector. In its current use, the two sides are operated in tandem, and serve to cross-validate each other by means of tracking market balances. The purposes of this report are to describe the estimation method, results, and performance evaluation criteria that were deemed relevant in assessing the potential predictive performance of SCOAL's statistically fitted relationships and to discuss the pre- and post-estimation considerations that prevailed over the course of mode development. The single equation parameter estimates, associated significance levels, statistical equation performance measures, and general comments regarding SCOAL's supply and demand side equations are presented.

Not Available

1983-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "includes short-term deviations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Synergistic Effects of Ultrasound-Activated Microbubbles and Doxorubicin on Short-Term Survival of Mouse Mammary  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Synergistic Effects of Ultrasound-Activated Microbubbles and Doxorubicin on Short-Term Survival and incubated for 24 hours at 37 °C, 100% humidity and 5% CO2 . The efficacies of the drug only and ultrasound-activated 24 hoursof treat- ment using the MTT Cell Proliferation Assay. The combined therapy resulted in 60

Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, University of

262

Short-Term Climatic Variability in the Thermal Structure of the Pacific Ocean during 1979–82  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-term climatic variability in both sea surface temperature (SST) and vertically averaged temperature over the upper 400 m of ocean (Tav) is mapped over the Pacific from 20°S to 50°N each bimonth for four years from 1979 to 1982, leading up ...

Warren B. White; Gary A. Meyers; Jean Rene Donguy; Stephen E. Pazan

1985-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

263

Accurate Short Term Load Forecasting for an ESKOM Major Distribution Region in South Africa: An Application of EPRI ANNSTLF  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

ANNSTLF (Artificial Neural Network Short-term Load Forecaster), developed by EPRI, is a Microsoft Windows-based neural-network load forecasting software that uses historical load and weather parameters to predict future load values. The software requires customization for each utility. This project involved customizing ANNSTLF for the Eastern Region of the South African energy company ESKOM.

2005-09-27T23:59:59.000Z

264

Short-Term Oceanic Response Predicted by a Mixed Layer Model Forced with a Sector Atmospheric Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A one-dimensional version of the Garwood bulk, oceanic mixed layer model is used to simulate the short- term response in a 60° sector. The atmospheric forcing is derived from a version of the UCLA general circulation model used by Sandgathe to ...

Russell L. Elsberry; Scott A. Sandgathe; Frank J. Winninghoff

1984-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

High Statistics Study of Nearby Type 1a Supernovae. QUEST Camera Short Term Maintenance: Final Technical Report  

SciTech Connect

The Quest Camera was installed at the Palomar Obervatory in California. The camera was used to carry out a survey of low redshift Type 1a supernovae.The purpose of this DOE grant was to perform short term maintenance on the QUEST camera.

Baltay, Charles

2012-10-16T23:59:59.000Z

266

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENERGY CONVERSION, VOL. 24, NO. 1, MARCH 2009 125 Short-Term Prediction of Wind Farm Power  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENERGY CONVERSION, VOL. 24, NO. 1, MARCH 2009 125 Short-Term Prediction of Wind Farm Power: A Data Mining Approach Andrew Kusiak, Member, IEEE, Haiyang Zheng, and Zhe Song, Student Member, IEEE Abstract--This paper examines time series models for predicting the power of a wind

Kusiak, Andrew

267

PSTAR: Primary and secondary terms analysis and renormalization: A unified approach to building energy simulations and short-term monitoring  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This report presents a unified method of hourly simulation of a building and analysis of performance data. The method is called Primary and Secondary Terms Analysis and Renormalization (PSTAR). In the PSTAR method, renormalized parameters are introduced for the primary terms such that the renormalized energy balance equation is best satisfied in the least squares sense, hence, the name PSTAR. PSTAR allows extraction of building characteristics from short-term tests on a small number of data channels. These can be used for long-term performance prediction (''ratings''), diagnostics, and control of heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems (HVAC), comparison of design versus actual performance, etc. By combining realistic building models, simple test procedures, and analysis involving linear equations, PSTAR provides a powerful tool for analyzing building energy as well as testing and monitoring. It forms the basis for the Short-Term Energy Monitoring (STEM) project at SERI.

Subbarao, K.

1988-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Status of Libyan Loading Ports and Oil and Natural Gas Fields  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Status of Libyan Loading Ports and Oil and Natural Gas Fields Tuesday, September 10, 2013, 10:00AM EST Overview During July and August 2013, protests at major oil loading ports in the central-eastern region of Libya forced the complete or partial shut-in of oil fields linked to the ports. As a result of protests at ports and at some oil fields, crude oil production fell to 1.0 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in July and 600,000 bbl/d in August, although the production level at the end of August was far lower. At the end of August, an armed group blocked pipelines that connect the El Sharara and El Feel (Elephant) fields to the Zawiya and Mellitah export terminals, respectively, forcing the shutdown of those fields. El Sharara had been

269

Dispersants for Tube Fouling Control: Volume 1: Qualifications for a Short-Term Trial at ANO-2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report summarizes the methodology and results of a detailed qualification program for injection of a high-purity polyacrylate dispersant into the secondary system of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) with recirculating steam generators. The dispersant inhibits corrosion product deposition, thereby mitigating sludge buildup and reducing tube fouling in nuclear steam generators. The qualification work was performed expressly for a short-term field trial at Arkansas Nuclear One Unit 2 (ANO-2) as part o...

2001-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

270

Analysis of the Performance Benefits of Short-Term Energy Storage in Wind-Diesel Hybrid Power Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A variety of prototype high penetration wind-diesel hybrid power systems have been implemented with different amounts of energy storage. They range from systems with no energy storage to those with many hours worth of energy storage. There has been little consensus among wind-diesel system developers as to the appropriate role and amount of energy storage in such systems. Some researchers advocate providing only enough storage capacity to supply power during the time it takes the diesel genset to start. Others install large battery banks to allow the diesel(s) to operate at full load and/or to time-shift the availability of wind-generated electricity to match the demand. Prior studies indicate that for high penetration wind-diesel systems, short-term energy storage provides the largest operational and economic benefit. This study uses data collected in Deering, Alaska, a small diesel-powered village, and the hybrid systems modeling software Hybrid2 to determine the optimum amount of short-term storage for a particular high penetration wind-diesel system. These findings were then generalized by determining how wind penetration, turbulence intensity, and load variability affect the value of short term energy storage as measured in terms of fuel savings, total diesel run time, and the number of diesel starts.

Shirazi, M.; Drouilhet, S.

1997-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

The University of Minnesota aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) field test facility -- system description, aquifer characterization, and results of short-term test cycles  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Phase 1 of the Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) Project at the University of Minnesota was to test the feasibility, and model, the ATES concept at temperatures above 100{degrees}C using a confined aquifer for the storage and recovery of hot water. Phase 1 included design, construction, and operation of a 5-MW thermal input/output field test facility (FTF) for four short-term ATES cycles (8 days each of heat injection, storage, and heat recover). Phase 1 was conducted from May 1980 to December 1983. This report describes the FTF, the Franconia-Ironton-Galesville (FIG) aquifer used for the test, and the four short-term ATES cycles. Heat recovery; operational experience; and thermal, chemical, hydrologic, and geologic effects are all included. The FTF consists of monitoring wells and the source and storage well doublet completed in the FIG aquifer with heat exchangers and a fixed-bed precipitator between the wells of the doublet. The FIG aquifer is highly layered and a really anisotropic. The upper Franconia and Ironton-Galesville parts of the aquifer, those parts screened, have hydraulic conductivities of {approximately}0.6 and {approximately}1.0 m/d, respectively. Primary ions in the ambient ground water are calcium and magnesium bicarbonate. Ambient temperature FIG ground water is saturated with respect to calcium/magnesium bicarbonate. Heating the ground water caused most of the dissolved calcium to precipitate out as calcium carbonate in the heat exchanger and precipitator. Silica, calcium, and magnesium were significantly higher in recovered water than in injected water, suggesting dissolution of some constituents of the aquifer during the cycles. Further work on the ground water chemistry is required to understand water-rock interactions.

Walton, M.; Hoyer, M.C.; Eisenreich, S.J.; Holm, N.L.; Holm, T.R.; Kanivetsky, R.; Jirsa, M.A.; Lee, H.C.; Lauer, J.L.; Miller, R.T.; Norton, J.L.; Runke, H. (Minnesota Geological Survey, St. Paul, MN (United States))

1991-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy Information Administration ... imports and exports, production, prices, sales. ... Maps by energy source and topic, includes forecast maps.

273

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

a: Petroleum coke consumption converted from short tons to barrels by multiplying by five. b: Other petroleum liquids include jet fuel, kerosene, and waste oil.

274

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, ...

275

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas. ... Diesel fuel prices, ...

276

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas. Exploration and reserves ... Supply Non-OPEC ... Non-Farm Employment

277

Web Version of the Artificial Neural Network Short Term Load Forecaster (WebANNSTLF 6.0)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The EPRI-developed ANNSTLF (Artificial Neural Network Short-Term Load Forecaster) is a neural-network load forecasting software system that uses historical load and weather parameters to predict future load values. EPRI has upgraded the most recent desktop version of the software (ANNSTLF 5.1) to a web-based version (WebANNSTLF 6.0). The new version, which retains almost all the functionally of ANNSTLF 5.1, features a web-based user interface that makes it possible to exploit a wide range of web services.

2007-09-17T23:59:59.000Z

278

STEMS-RT 1.0: Short-Term Electricity Market Simulator (Real Time), Demonstration Version 1.0  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Short-Term Electricity Market Simulator (Real Time) Demonstration Version 1.0 (STEMS-RT 1.0) allows the user to simulate simple examples of electricity markets. Description: The STEMS-RT 1.0 software is based on EPRI's pioneering development and application of agent-based simulation for the study of decision-making associated with electricity markets. In fact, the Nobel Prize in Economics was recently awarded to earlier pioneers of such investigations using people and otherwise known as experimental ...

2004-12-20T23:59:59.000Z

279

STEMS-MS v3.0, Short-Term Electricity Market Simulator - MultiSettle, Version 3.0  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Short-Term Electricity Market Simulator – MultiSettle (STEMS-MS), Version 3.0 software allows the user to simulate flexibly examples of electricity markets. STEMS-MS is based on EPRI's pioneering development and application of agent-based simulation for the study of decision-making associated with electricity markets. A recent Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to earlier pioneers of this type of investigation using human subjects, which is called experimental economics. While the use of computer-...

2007-09-17T23:59:59.000Z

280

DOE/EIA-0202(85/3Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

as a result of lower crude oil prices. This forecast does include an expected increase in production costs of about 2 cents per gallon attributable to the ruling by the...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "includes short-term deviations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Short-Term Shutdown Guidance for Steam Turbine-Generators and Auxiliary Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report provides guidelines on the methods that utilities should consider to protect operating equipment when it is removed from service for short periods of time. The equipment and systems considered in this report include the steam turbine, generator, exciter, feedwater heaters, and related auxiliaries. The timeframe for this report includes outage periods from a weekend to six months. Improper layup can cause long-term equipment damage and premature failure. Increased shutdown frequency and durati...

2010-11-12T23:59:59.000Z

282

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

1 : U.S. Energy Markets Summary 1 : U.S. Energy Markets Summary Either scripts and active content are not permitted to run or Adobe Flash Player version ${version_major}.${version_minor}.${version_revision} or greater is not installed. Get Adobe Flash Player a Includes lease condensate. b Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption. c Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy. EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy. d The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated by using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIA’s Monthly Energy Review (MER). Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).

283

Negative bold response in the hippocampus during short-term spatial memory retrieval  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A parieto-medial temporal pathway is thought to underlie spatial navigation in humans. fMRI was used to assess the role of this pathway, including the hippocampus, in the cognitive processes likely to underlie navigation based on environmental cues. ...

Jonna Nilsson, I. Nicol Ferrier, Kenny Coventry, Andre Bester, Andreas Finkelmeyer

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

Short-term variability of overcast brightness Raymond L. Lee, Jr. and Javier Hernndez-Andrs  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

stratus overcast at USNA on 4-21-03 with the E trend predicted by the radiative transfer model MODTRAN4. Despite MODTRAN's complexity and versatility, its verisi- militude is not striking in Fig. 14 for fixed model cloud thickness z. Figure 14's MODTRAN simula- tion parameters include typical seasonal

Lee Jr., Raymond L.

285

A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

A Calibration Methodology for Retrofit Projects Using Short-Term Monitoring and Disaggregated Energy Use Data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper presents an improved methodology to calibrate energy simulation models to better represent the actual energy use breakdowns in existing buildings. The goal of this methodology is to help architects and engineers accurately determine the current energy use and identify any energy-related problems in the building before proposing the retrofit design solutions, without conducting long-term monitoring. The methodology includes procedures to conduct systematic data collection, "on-off' tests to determine the power densities of the electrical loads, up to four weeks of building energy monitoring to derive the energy use profiles and temperature settings, and disaggregation of the measured energy use data. The procedures also utilize the monthly utility billing records and site weather data. The calibration to the measured data is done on both hourly and monthly basis. The procedures are built into a computer program and integrated with previously developed simulation software. The user interface of the program includes guidelines to help the user decide which simulation input variable has to be altered in order to match the measured data. It also produces graphical outputs to help in visualizing the results, and several guidelines to help study different retrofit strategies after the model has been calibrated.

Soebarto, V. I.; Degelman, L. O.

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

Determining Long-Term Performance of Cool Storage Systems from Short-Term Tests; Literature Review and Site Selection, Nov. 1997 (Revised Feb. 1998)  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This is the preliminary report contains the literature review and site selection recommendations for ASHRAE Research Project RP 1004 — "Determining Long-term Performance of Cool Storage Systems From Short-term Tests".

Haberl, J. S.; Claridge, D. E.; Reddy, T. A.; Elleson, J.

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

Short-Term Basin-Scale Streamflow Forecasting Using Large-Scale Coupled Atmospheric–Oceanic Circulation and Local Outgoing Longwave Radiation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper investigates the use of large-scale circulation patterns (El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation), local outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and previous streamflow information for short-term (weekly) ...

Rajib Maity; S. S. Kashid

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

2 : U.S. Energy Prices 2 : U.S. Energy Prices Either scripts and active content are not permitted to run or Adobe Flash Player version ${version_major}.${version_minor}.${version_revision} or greater is not installed. Get Adobe Flash Player a Average for all sulfur contents. b Average self-service cash price. c Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude. - = no data available Notes: Prices are not adjusted for inflation. The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with estimates and forecasts in italics. Prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted. Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380; Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035.

290

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Real Prices Viewer Real Prices Viewer Real Petroleum Prices are computed by dividing the nominal price in a given month by the ratio of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that month to the CPI in some "base" period. The Real Petroleum Prices spreadsheet and charts are updated every month so that the current month is the base period in the monthly price series. Consequently, all real prices are expressed in "current" dollars and any current month price may be compared directly with any past or projected real prices. Download all real and nominal price series to an Excel Spreadsheet (Excel xlsx file) Data Sources History Imported Crude Oil Price (refiner average imported crude oil acquisition cost) 1968 - Present: EIA Petroleum Marketing Monthly Motor Gasoline Regular Grade Retail Price (including taxes)

291

Accuracy assessment of solar system performance projection based on short-term data acquisition as compared to seasonal results from the National Solar Data Network  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Considerable interest has been placed on the assessment of solar thermal performance based on data acquired during short-term monitoring periods of up to two weeks time. This paper utilizes the measured long-term performance data available from the National Solar Data Network (NSDN) to assess the accuracy of projected thermal performance factors which are based on short-term data acquisition. 7 refs.

Kendall, P.W.

1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

Actinide partitioning-transmutation program final report. VI. Short-term risk analysis of reprocessing, refabrication, and transportation: summary  

SciTech Connect

A Partitioning-Transmutation (PT) fuel cycle is being compared to a Reference cycle employing conventional fuel-material recovery methods. The PT cycle uses enhanced recovery methods so that most of the long-lived actinides are recycled to nuclear power plants and transmuted thereby reducing the waste toxicity. This report compares the two fuel cycles on the basis of the short-term radiological and nonradiological risks. The accidental radiological risk to the public is analyzed by estimating the probabilities of sets of accidents; the consequences are calculated using the risk, which is RAC code. Routine radiological risks to the public are estimated from the calculated release amounts, also using the CRAC code. Radiological occupational risks are determined from prior experience, projected standards, and estimates of accident risk. Nonradiological risks are calculated from the number of personnel involved, historical experience, and epidemiological studies. Result of this analysis is that the short-term risk of PT is 2.9 times greater than that of the Reference cycle, primarily due to the larger amount of industry. The nonradiological risk which is about 150 times greater than the radiological risk. If the radiological risk is consdered alone, the ratio of PT to Reference risk is 3, composed as follows: radiological operations affecting the public 5, radiological operations affecting the workers 1.7, and radiological accidents affecting the public 1.4, all in the order of decreasing risk. The absolute risk as estimated for the fuel cycle portions considered in this report is 0.91 fatality/GWe-year for the PT cycle and 0.34 fatality/GWe-year for the reference cycle; this compares with 1.5 for nuclear and 150 for coal. All of the risks assumed here are associated with the production of one billion watts of electricity (GWe) per year.

Fullwood, R.; Jackson, R.

1980-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

Interpretation of Strong Short-Term Central Perturbations in the Light Curves of Moderate-Magnification Microlensing Events  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To improve the planet detection efficiency, current planetary microlensing experiments are focused on high-magnification events searching for planetary signals near the peak of lensing light curves. However, it is known that central perturbations can also be produced by binary companions and thus it is important to distinguish planetary signals from those induced by binary companions. In this paper, we analyze the light curves of microlensing events OGLE-2007-BLG-137/MOA-2007-BLG-091, OGLE-2007-BLG-355/MOA-2007-BLG-278, and MOA-2007-BLG-199/OGLE-2007-BLG-419, for all of which exhibit short-term perturbations near the peaks of the light curves. From detailed modeling of the light curves, we find that the perturbations of the events are caused by binary companions rather than planets. From close examination of the light curves combined with the underlying physical geometry of the lens system obtained from modeling, we find that the short time-scale caustic-crossing feature occurring at a low or a moderate base ...

Han, C; Kim, D; Udalski, A; Abe, F; Monard, L A B; McCormick, J; Szymanski, M K; Kubiak, M; Pietrzynski, G; Soszynski, I; Szewczyk, O; Wyrzykowski, L; Ulaczyk, K; Bond, I A; Botzler, C S; Fukui, A; Furusawa, K; Hearnshaw, J B; Itow, Y; Kamiya, K; Kilmartin, P M; Korpela, A; Lin, W; Ling, C H; Masuda, K; Matsubara, Y; Miyake, N; Muraki, Y; Nagaya, M; Ohnishi, K; Tokumura, T; Perrott, Y C; Rattenbury, N; Saito, To; Sako, T; Skuljan, L; Sullivan, D S; Sumi, T; Sweatman, W L; Tristram, P J; Yock, P C M; Allen, W; Christie, G W; DePoy, D L; Dong, S; Gaudi, B S; Gould, A; Lee, C -U; Natusch, T; Park, B -G; Pogge, R W; Albrow, M D; Allan, A; Batista, V; Beaulieu, J P; Bennett, D P; Brillant, S; Bode, M; Bramich, D M; Burgdorf, M; Caldwell, J A R; Calitz, H; Cassan, A; Corrales, E; Dieters, S; Prester, D D; Dominik, M; Donatowicz, J; Fouque, P; Greenhill, J; Hill, K; Hoffman, M; Horne, K; Jorgensen, U G; Kains, N; Kubas, D; Marquette, J B; Martin, R; Meintjes, P; Menzies, J; Pollard, K R; Sahu, K C; Snodgrass, C; Steele, I; Street, R; Tsapras, Y; Wambsganss, J; Williams, A; Zub, M

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

294

Centre de Referència en Economia Analítica Barcelona Economics Working Paper Series Working Paper nº 185 Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Barcelona Economics WP nº 185 We argue that emerging economies borrow short term due to the high risk premium charged by international capital markets on long-term debt. First, we present a model where the debt maturity structure is the outcome of a risk sharing problem between the government and bondholders. By issuing long-term debt, the government lowers the probability of a liquidity crisis, transferring risk to bondholders. In equilibrium, this risk is reflected in a higher risk premium and borrowing cost. Therefore, the government faces a trade-off between safer long-term borrowing and cheaper short-term debt. Second, we construct a new database of sovereign bond prices and issuance. We show that emerging economies pay a positive term premium (a higher risk premium on long-term bonds than on short-term bonds). During crises, the term premium increases, with issuance shifting toward shorter maturities. This suggests that changes in

O A. Broner; Guido Lorenzoni; Sergio L. Schmukler

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

295

Seismic Activity of the Earth, the Cosmological Vectorial Potential And Method of a Short-term Earthquakes Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To the foundation of a principally new short-term forecasting method there has been laid down a theory of surrounding us world's creation and of physical vacuum as a result of interaction of byuons - discrete objects. The definition of the byuon contains the cosmological vector-potential A_g - a novel fundamental vector constant. This theory predicts a new anisotropic interaction of nature objects with the physical vacuum. A peculiar "tap" to gain new energy (giving rise to an earthquake) are elementary particles because their masses are proportional to the modulus of some summary potential A_sum that contains potentials of all known fields. The value of A_sum cannot be larger than the modulus of A_g. In accordance with the experimental results a new force associated with A_sum ejects substance from the area of the weakened A_sum along a conical formation with the opening of 100 +- 10 and the axis directed along the vector A_sum. This vector has the following coordinates in the second equatorial coordinate system: right ascension alpha = 293 +- 10, declination delta = 36 +- 10. Nearly 100% probability of an earthquake (earthquakes of 6 points strong and more by the Richter scale) arises when in the process of the earth rotation the zenith vector of a seismically dangerous region and/or the vectorial potential of Earth's magnetic fields are in a certain way oriented relative to the vector A_g. In the work, basic models and standard mechanisms of earthquakes are briefly considered, results of processing of information on the earthquakes in the context of global spatial anisotropy caused by the existence of the vector A_g, are presented, and an analysis of them is given.

Yu. A. Baurov; Yu. A. Baurov; Yu. A. Baurov Jr.; A. A. Spitalnaya; A. A. Abramyan; V. A. Solodovnikov

2008-08-20T23:59:59.000Z

296

Microbial dynamics in upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) bioreactor granules in response to short-term changes in substrate feed  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The complexity and diversity of the microbial communities in biogranules from an upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) bioreactor were determined in response to short-term changes in substrate feeds. The reactor was fed simulated brewery wastewater (SBWW) (70% ethanol, 15% acetate, 15% propionate) for 1.5 months (phase 1), acetate / sulfate for 2 months (phase 2), acetate-alone for 3 months (phase 3), and then a return to SBWW for 2 months (phase 4). Performance of the reactor remained relatively stable throughout the experiment as shown by COD removal and gas production. 16S rDNA, methanogen-associated mcrA and sulfate reducer-associated dsrAB genes were PCR amplified, then cloned and sequenced. Sequence analysis of 16S clone libraries showed a relatively simple community composed mainly of the methanogenic Archaea (Methanobacterium and Methanosaeta), members of the Green Non-Sulfur (Chloroflexi) group of Bacteria, followed by fewer numbers of Syntrophobacter, Spirochaeta, Acidobacteria and Cytophaga-related Bacterial sequences. Methanogen-related mcrA clone libraries were dominated throughout by Methanobacter and Methanospirillum related sequences. Although not numerous enough to be detected in our 16S rDNA libraries, sulfate reducers were detected in dsrAB clone libraries, with sequences related to Desulfovibrio and Desulfomonile. Community diversity levels (Shannon-Weiner index) generally decreased for all libraries in response to a change from SBWW to acetate-alone feed. But there was a large transitory increase noted in 16S diversity at the two-month sampling on acetate-alone, entirely related to an increase in Bacterial diversity. Upon return to SBWW conditions in phase 4, all diversity measures returned to near phase 1 levels.

Kovacik, William P.; Scholten, Johannes C.; Culley, David E.; Hickey, Robert; Zhang, Weiwen; Brockman, Fred J.

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

Assimilation of Remote-sensing Soil Moisture in Short-term River Forecasting M. Pan1, E. F. Wood1, W. Crow2, J. Schaake3  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Assimilation of Remote-sensing Soil Moisture in Short-term River Forecasting M. Pan1, E. F. Wood1 Hydrology and Remote Sensing Lab, US Department of Agriculture 3 National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 1. Introduction This study focuses on evaluation of hydrologic remote sensing

Pan, Ming

298

286 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SMART GRID, VOL. 1, NO. 3, DECEMBER 2010 Short-Term Load Forecast of Microgrids by a New  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Microgrids by a New Bilevel Prediction Strategy Nima Amjady, Senior Member, IEEE, Farshid Keynia, Member, IEEE, and Hamidreza Zareipour, Senior Member, IEEE Abstract--Microgrids are a rapidly growing sector. In the operation of a microgrid, forecasting the short-term load is an important task. With a more accurate short

299

Predicting Long-Term Performance of Photovoltaic Arrays Using Short-Term Test Data and an Annual Simulation Tool: Preprint (Revised)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

We present a method of analysis for predicting annual performance of an in-situ photovoltaic (PV) array using short-term test data and an annual simulation tool. The method involves fitting data from a family of I-V curves (depicting current versus voltage) taken from a short-term test (1 to 3 day) of a PV array to a set of polynomial functions. These functions are used to predict the array's behaviour under a wide range of temperatures and irradiances. TRNSYS, driven by TMY2 weather data, is used to simulate the array's behaviour under typical weather conditions. We demonstrate this method by using results from a nominal 630-W array.

Barker, G.; Norton, P.

2003-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

300

Customization of the EPRI Artificial Neural Network Short-Term Load Forecaster (ANNSTLF) and User Support for the California Independent System Operator (CA-ISO)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Load forecasting is an important part of power system planning and operation. In the past, forecasting was achieved by extrapolating existing load data combined with other influencing factors. This method is no longer accurate enough. The Artificial Neural Network Short-Term Load Forecaster (ANNSTLF) is a tool for the quick and accurate prediction of hourly loads that provides the level of accuracy required by today's complex and competitive power markets. This report describes all the deliverables for t...

2002-11-19T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "includes short-term deviations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

PSTAR: Primary and secondary terms analysis and renormalization: A unified approach to building energy simulations and short-term monitoring: A summary  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This report summarizes a longer report entitled PSTAR - Primary and Secondary Terms Analysis and Renormalization. A Unified Approach to Building Energy Simulations and Short-Term Monitoring. These reports highlight short-term testing for predicting long-term performance of residential buildings. In the PSTAR method, renormalized parameters are introduced for the primary terms such that the renormalized energy balance equation is best satisfied in the least squares sense; hence, the name PSTAR. Testing and monitoring the energy performance of buildings has several important applications, among them: extrapolation to long-term performance, refinement of design tools through feedback from comparing design versus actual parameters, building-as-a-calorimeter for heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) diagnostics, and predictive load control. By combining realistic building models, simple test procedures, and analysis involving linear equations, PSTAR provides a powerful tool for analyzing building energy as well as testing and monitoring. It forms the basis for the Short-Term Energy Monitoring (STEM) project at SERI. 3 figs., 1 tab.

Subbarao, K.

1988-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

Short-term recovery of NH4-15N applied to a temperate forest inceptisol and ultisol in east Tennessee USA  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The short-term fate and retention of ammonium (NH4)-{sup 15}nitrogen (N) applied to two types of forest soils in east Tennessee was investigated. Four ridgetop forests, predominantly oak (Quercus spp.), were studied. Five applications of NH{sub 4}-{sup 15}N tracer were made to the forest floor at 2- to 4-week intervals over a 14-week period in 2004. Nitrogen-15 recovery in the forest floor, fine roots (100 weeks) indicated the forest floor is an effective filter for atmospheric N inputs.

Garten Jr, Charles T [ORNL; Brice, Deanne Jane [ORNL; Todd Jr, Donald E [ORNL

2007-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

CLASS DEVIATION FINDINGS AND DETERMINATION Trade Agreements  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Trade Agreements Trade Agreements FAR 25.402(b) Findings 1. On December 29,2009, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) established new procurement thresholds for the various Trade Agreements identified at FAR 25.402(b). The revised thresholds were effective on January 1,2010. 2. Civilian Agency Acquisition Letter 2010-01, issued on January 19,201 0, recommends that civilian agencies authorize issuance of a class deviation to use the new procurement thresholds for the Trade Agreements until such time as FAR 25.402(b) is formally amended. Determination It is hereby determined that a class deviation from FAR 25.402(b) is appropriate to allow the use of the revised procurement thresholds for the various Trade Agreements that were issued by the USTR on December 29,2009.

304

Winchester/Camberley Homes New Construction Test House Design, Construction, and Short-Term Testing in a Mixed-Humid Climate  

SciTech Connect

The NAHB Research Center partnered with production builder Winchester/Camberley Homes to build a DOE Building America New Construction Test House (NCTH). This single family, detached house, located in the mixed-humid climate zone of Silver Spring, MD, was completed in June 2011. The primary goal for this house was to improve energy efficiency by 30% over the Building America B10 benchmark by developing and implementing an optimized energy solutions package design that could be cost effectively and reliably constructed on a production basis using quality management practices. The intent of this report is to outline the features of this house, discuss the implementation of the energy efficient design, and report on short-term testing results. During the interactive design process of this project, numerous iterations of the framing, air sealing, insulation, and space conditioning systems were evaluated for energy performance, cost, and practical implementation. The final design featured numerous advanced framing techniques, high levels of insulation, and the HVAC system entirely within conditioned space. Short-term testing confirmed a very tight thermal envelope and efficient and effective heating and cooling. In addition, relevant heating, cooling, humidity, energy, and wall cavity moisture data will be collected and presented in a future long-term report.

Mallav, D.; Wiehagen, J.; Wood, A.

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

305

An evaluation of the Gilian TRACEAIR Organic Vapor Monitoring Diffusive Badge in measuring short-term exposure levels of benzene under field conditions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The objective of this research is to evaluate the performance of the Gilian TRACEAIR Organic Vapor Monitoring I (OVMI) Diffusive Badge in measuring short-term benzene exposures under field conditions. In general, a diffusive badge is a device which is capable of taking samples of gas or vapor pollutants from the atmosphere at a rate controlled by a physical process such as diffusion through a static layer. Diffusive badges continue to flood the industrial hygiene market as an alternative means to charcoal tubes for sampling organic vapors. The OVMI badge has been on the market since 1990, and is the only diffusive sampler that offers dual sampling rates for measuring organic vapors. This dual sampling rate feature allows one the flexibility of sampling at 3 5 to I 00 mL/@n depending on the vapors being sampled. The OVM I badge has been designed to monitor short-term exposure limits (STEL) and long-term limits with only negligible modifications to the badge housing. Side-by-side benzene STEL concentrations were measured in a Texas Gulf Coast refinery implementing two OVM I badges, an SKC charcoal tube, and a Tedlar bag used for gas chromatograph analyses. The results of the study indicated that a) no significant concentration differences were found between the badges; b) the badges overestimated the charcoal tube on average by 54%, although their performance comparisons were highly predictable based on linear regression; and c) the results of the Tedlar baga?s chromatograph comparisons were inconclusive. Factors which might have contributed to the discrepancy between the charcoal tube and badges are possible concentration gradients and starvation effects occurring at the samplers' inlet face, interference from other competing vapors, and an overestimated badge sampling rate when sampling at the maximum uptake rate. Collectively, the outcomes of this research suggests that a correction factor in the badge's sampling rate might prove useful as a means of correcting for short-term overestimations when sampling for benzene under field conditions. It is hoped that the contents of this research serve as an useful aid for those specifically interested in the OVMI badge and for those whose line of work involve passive sampling.

Pierce, Mark Edward

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

306

SHORT-TERM VARIABILITY OF X-RAYS FROM ACCRETING NEUTRON STAR VELA X-1. I. SUZAKU OBSERVATIONS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We have analyzed the time variability of the wide-band X-ray spectrum of Vela X-1, the brightest wind-fed accreting neutron star, on a short timescale of 2 ks by using Suzaku observations with an exposure of 100 ks. During the observation, the object showed strong variability, including several flares and so-called 'low states', in which the X-ray luminosity decreases by an order of magnitude. Although the spectral hardness increases with the X-ray luminosity, the majority of the recorded flares do not show any significant changes in circumstellar absorption. However, a sign of heavy absorption was registered immediately before one short flare that showed a significant spectral hardening. In the low states, the flux level is modulated with the pulsar spin period, indicating that even at this state the accretion flow reaches the close proximity of the neutron star. Phenomenologically, the broadband X-ray spectra, which are integrated over the entire spin phase, are well represented by the 'NPEX' function (a combination of negative and positive power laws with an exponential cutoff by a common folding energy) with a cyclotron resonance scattering feature at 50 keV. Fitting of the data allowed us to infer a correlation between the photon index and X-ray luminosity. Finally, the circumstellar absorption shows a gradual increase in the orbital phase interval 0.25-0.3, which can be interpreted as an impact of a bow shock imposed by the motion of the compact object in the supersonic stellar wind.

Odaka, Hirokazu; Khangulyan, Dmitry; Watanabe, Shin; Takahashi, Tadayuki [Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS), Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), 3-1-1 Yoshinodai, Chuo, Sagamihara, Kanagawa 252-5210 (Japan)] [Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS), Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), 3-1-1 Yoshinodai, Chuo, Sagamihara, Kanagawa 252-5210 (Japan); Tanaka, Yasuyuki T. [Hiroshima Astrophysical Science Center, Hiroshima University, 1-3-1 Kagamiyama, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8526 (Japan)] [Hiroshima Astrophysical Science Center, Hiroshima University, 1-3-1 Kagamiyama, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8526 (Japan); Makishima, Kazuo [Department of Physics, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan)] [Department of Physics, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan)

2013-04-10T23:59:59.000Z

307

Short-Term Power Fluctuation of Wind Turbines: Analyzing Data from the German 250-MW Measurement Program from the Ancillary Services Viewpoint  

SciTech Connect

Short-term power fluctuations from wind farms may affect interconnected-grid operating costs and stability. With the increasing availability of wind power worldwide, this has become a concern for some utilities. Under electric industry restructuring in the United States, the impact of these fluctuations will be evaluated by examining provisions and costs of ancillary services for wind power. However, the magnitude of the impact and the effect of aggregation of multiple turbines are not well quantified due to a lack of actual wind farm power data. This paper analyzes individual turbine and aggregate power output data from the German ''250-MW Wind'' data project. Electric system load following and regulation impacts are examined as a function of the number of turbines and turbine spacing in order to quantify the impacts of aggregation. The results show a significant decrease in the relative system regulation burden with increasing number of turbines, even if the turbines are in close proximity.

Ernst, B. (Institut fur Solare Energieversorgungstechnik); Wan, Y.-H. (National Renewable Energy Laboratory); Kirby, B. (Oak Ridge National Laboratory)

1999-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

308

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

(STEO) (STEO) Highlights * Crude oil prices increased during the first three weeks of July 2013 as world oil markets tightened in the face of seasonal increases in world consumption, unexpected supply disruptions, and heightened uncertainty over the security of supply with the renewed unrest in Egypt. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that the Brent crude oil spot price, which averaged $108 per barrel over the first half of 2013, will average $104 per barrel over the second half of 2013, and $100 per barrel in 2014. * The discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to Brent crude oil, which averaged $18 per barrel in 2012 and increased to a monthly average of $21 per barrel in February 2013, closed below $1.50 per barrel on July 19, 2013, and averaged $3 per barrel for the

309

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

(STEO) (STEO) Highlights  After falling by more than 40 cents per gallon from the beginning of September through mid-November, weekly U.S. average regular gasoline retail prices increased by 8 cents per gallon to reach $3.27 per gallon on December 2, 2013, due in part to unplanned refinery maintenance and higher crude oil prices. The annual average regular gasoline retail price, which was $3.63 per gallon in 2012, is expected to average $3.50 per gallon in 2013 and $3.43 per gallon in 2014.  The North Sea Brent crude oil spot price averaged near $110 per barrel for the fifth consecutive month in November. EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to average $108 per barrel in December and decline gradually to $104 per barrel in 2014. Projected West Texas

310

Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

degree-days. ** thousand cubic feet 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2012 2013 2014 Energy Supply Crude Oil Production (a) (million barrels per day)...

311

Short Term Energy Outlook Supplement  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

increased impacts on offshore crude oil and natural gas producers in the Gulf of Mexico ... threaten any offshore platforms.

312

Estimators for the Standard Deviation of Horizontal Wind Direction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The standard deviation of horizontal wind direction is a central quantity in the description of atmospheric turbulence and of great practical use in dispersion models. As horizontal wind direction is a circular variable, its standard deviation ...

Rudolf O. Weber

1997-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

313

On k-jet field approximations of geodesic deviation equations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Let M be a smooth manifold and S a spray defined on the convex cone C of the tangent bundle TM. It is proved that the only non-trivial k-jet approximation of the exact geodesic deviation equation of S, linear on the deviation functions and invariant under arbitrary local coordinate transformations corresponds to the Jacobi equation. However, if linearity in the deviation functions is not required, there are differential equations whose solutions admit k-jet approximations and are invariant under arbitrary coordinate transformations. As an example of higher order geodesic deviation equations we study the first and second order jet geodesic deviation equations for a Finsler spray.

Torromé, Ricardo Gallego

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

314

Comparison of MELCOR modeling techniques and effects of vessel water injection on a low-pressure, short-term, station blackout at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station  

SciTech Connect

A fully qualified, best-estimate MELCOR deck has been prepared for the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station and has been run using MELCOR 1.8.3 (1.8 PN) for a low-pressure, short-term, station blackout severe accident. The same severe accident sequence has been run with the same MELCOR version for the same plant using the deck prepared during the NUREG-1150 study. A third run was also completed with the best-estimate deck but without the Lower Plenum Debris Bed (BH) Package to model the lower plenum. The results from the three runs have been compared, and substantial differences have been found. The timing of important events is shorter, and the calculated source terms are in most cases larger for the NUREG-1150 deck results. However, some of the source terms calculated by the NUREG-1150 deck are not conservative when compared to the best-estimate deck results. These results identified some deficiencies in the NUREG-1150 model of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station. Injection recovery sequences have also been simulated by injecting water into the vessel after core relocation started. This marks the first use of the new BH Package of MELCOR to investigate the effects of water addition to a lower plenum debris bed. The calculated results indicate that vessel failure can be prevented by injecting water at a sufficiently early stage. No pressure spikes in the vessel were predicted during the water injection. The MELCOR code has proven to be a useful tool for severe accident management strategies.

Carbajo, J.J.

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

Determining Long-Term Performance of Cool Storage Systems from Short-Term Tests; Literature Review, Preliminary Methodology Description, and Final Site Selection (Final Revision of Nov. 1997 Report)  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This preliminary report contains the literature review, a preliminary description of the methodologies that have been chosen for the project and final site selection recommendations for ASHRAE Research Project RP 1004 ~ "Determining Long-term Performance of Cool Storage Systems From Short-term Tests".

Reddy, T. A.; Elleson, J.; Haberl, J. S.; Claridge, D. E.

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

316

Evaluation of a cloud scale lightning data assimilation technique and a 3DVAR method for the analysis and short-term forecast of the 29 June 2012 derecho event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work evaluates the short-term forecast (? 6-h) of the 29-30 June 2012 derecho event from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) ARW model when using two distinct data assimilation techniques at cloud resolving scales (3-km horizontal grid). ...

Alexandre O. Fierro; Jidong Gao; Conrad L. Ziegler; Edward R. Mansell; Donald R. Macgorman; Scott R. Dembek

317

Interim Data Changes in the Short-term Energy Outlook Data Systems Related to Electric Power Sector and Natural Gas Demand Data Revisions (Released in the STEO December 2002)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Beginning with the December 2002 issue of EIAs Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO),electricity generation and related fuel consumption totals will be presented on a basis that isconsistent with the definitions and aggregates used in the 2001 edition of EIAs Annual EnergyReview (AER). Particularly affected by these changes are the demand and balancing itemtotals for natural

Information Center

2002-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

A Method for Estimating the Standard Deviation of Wind Directions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method for estimating the standard deviation of horizontal wind directions (??), from the cosines and sines of direction angles, is proposed.

K. A. Verrall; R. L. Williams

1982-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

Effects of Manufacturing Deviations on Core Compressor Blade Performance.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??There has been recent incentive for understanding the possible deleterious effects that manufacturing deviations can have on compressor blade performance. This is of particular importance… (more)

De Losier, Clayton Ray

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

Large deviations principles of Non-Freidlin-Wentzell type  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Generalized Large deviation principles of Non-Freidlin-Wentzell type was developed for weakly time inhomogeneous diffusions prove to be key tools for a treatment of the problem of diffusion exit from a domain and thus for the approach of stochastic resonance via transition probabilities between meta-stable states. We expand the classical theory of large deviations for randomly perturbed dynamical systems developed by Freidlin and Wentzell.

Jaykov Foukzon

2008-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "includes short-term deviations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY CLASS DEVIATION FAR 52.222-8 PAYROLLS AND RECORDS  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

CLASS DEVIATION CLASS DEVIATION FAR 52.222-8 PAYROLLS AND RECORDS This class deviation revises paragraph (b)(l) of FAR 52.222-8, Payroll and Basic Records, to remove unnecessary personal information (home address and full social security number) required by the clause. This implements changes published by the Department of Labor on December 19,2008 (73 FR 77504) to no longer require the home address and full social security number of all laborers on construction contract weekly payroll submissions to the Contracting Officer. FAR Case 2009-018 has been opened to formally amend FAR 52.222-8. The revised text is attached. Contracting Officers may amend existing contracts consistent with FAR 1.108(d) and should include this change in all construction solicitations and contracts.

322

Impedance Characteristics and Polarization Behavior of a Microbial Fuel Cell in Response to Short-Term Changes in Medium pH  

SciTech Connect

pH oppositely influences anode and cathode performance in microbial fuel cells. The differential electrochemical effects at each electrode and the resultant full-cell performance were analyzed in medium pH from 6.0 to 8.0. Potentials changed -60 mV/pH for the anode and -68 mV/pH for the cathode, coincident with thermodynamic estimations. Open circuit voltage reached a maximum (741 mV) at pH 7, and maximum power density was highest (712 mW/m{sup 2}) at pH 6.5 as the cathode performance improved at lower pH. Maximum current density increased and apparent half-saturation potential (E{sub KA}) decreased with increasing medium pH due to improved anode performance. An equivalent circuit model composed of two time constant processes accurately fit bioanode impedance data. One of these processes was consistently the rate-limiting step for acetate-oxidizing exoelectrogenesis, with its pH-varying charge transfer resistance R{sub 2} ranging from 2- to 321-fold higher than the pH-independent charge transfer resistance R{sub 1}. The associated capacitance C{sub 2} was 2-3 orders of magnitude larger than C{sub 1}. R{sub 2} was lowest near E{sub KA} and increased by several orders of magnitude at anode potentials above E{sub KA}, while R{sub 1} was nearly stable. However, fits deviated slightly at potentials above E{sub KA} due to emerging impedance possibly associated with diffusion and excessive potential.

Jung, Sokhee [Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; Mench, Matthew M [ORNL; Regan, John M. [Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

A critical evaluation of the deviation time method to calculate discontinuity radias from well tests in composite reservoirs  

SciTech Connect

Reservoirs with a fluid bank, or a burning front, reservoirs with a reduced or an increased permeability region around the wellbore, and geothermal reservoirs are often modeled as composite reservoirs. Reservoirs with a fluid bank include reservoirs undergoing waterflood, chemical flood, polymer flood, CO/sub 2/ flood, and steam injection. Eight well tests reported in the literature exhibiting composite reservoir behavior have been analyzed using the deviation time method. The dimensionless deviation times obtained from pressure and pressure derivative responses for a well in a composite reservoir are used for analyzing the well tests. Analysis shows the estimate of discontinuity radius to be sensitive to both the real and the dimensionless deviation times used. The estimate discontinuity radius from the deviation time method may represent a lower bound for discontinuity radius, if the swept region is not cylindrical. Also, obtaining an accurate deviation time for small mobility contrasts may be difficult.

Ambastha, A.K.; Ramey, H.J., Jr. (Stanford Univ., CA (USA))

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

Scaling Deviations for Neutrino Reactions in Aysmptotically Free Field Theories  

DOE R&D Accomplishments (OSTI)

Several aspects of deep inelastic neutrino scattering are discussed in the framework of asymptotically free field theories. We first consider the growth behavior of the total cross sections at large energies. Because of the deviations from strict scaling which are characteristic of such theories the growth need not be linear. However, upper and lower bounds are established which rather closely bracket a linear growth. We next consider in more detail the expected pattern of scaling deviation for the structure functions and, correspondingly, for the differential cross sections. The analysis here is based on certain speculative assumptions. The focus is on qualitative effects of scaling breakdown as they may show up in the X and y distributions. The last section of the paper deals with deviations from the Callan-Gross relation.

Wilczek, F. A.; Zee, A.; Treiman, S. B.

1974-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Advanced On-Site Wastewater Treatment and Management Market Study: Volume 1: Assessment of Short-Term Opportunities and Long-Run Pot ential  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

On-site septic systems have traditionally been considered a temporary solution on the way to sewering. However, the elimination of federal grants for sewers and wastewater treatment plants has brought a new awareness of the high costs and the sometimes adverse environmental consequences of centralized point discharges. At the same time, advances in on-site technologies, including such systems as low-flow water conservation, watertight septic tanks with screens, sand filtration, disinfection, remote monit...

2000-09-27T23:59:59.000Z

326

Microsoft Word - Flash2006-47JulyDeviatedClause.doc  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

970.5227-2 Rights in Data -- Technology Transfer (Deviation-July 2006) 970.5227-2 Rights in Data -- Technology Transfer (Deviation-July 2006) (a) Definitions. (1) Computer data bases, as used in this clause, means a collection of data in a form capable of, and for the purpose of, being stored in, processed, and operated on by a computer. The term does not include computer software. (2) Computer software, as used in this clause, means (i) computer programs which are data comprising a series of instructions, rules, routines, or statements, regardless of the media in which recorded, that allow or cause a computer to perform a specific operation or series of operations and (ii) data comprising source code listings, design details, algorithms, processes, flow charts, formulae, and related material that would enable the computer program to be produced, created, or compiled. The term does not

327

Microsoft Word - Flash2006-47DeviatedClauseII.doc  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

970.5227-3 Technology Transfer Mission (Deviation-July 2006) 970.5227-3 Technology Transfer Mission (Deviation-July 2006) This clause has as its purpose implementation of the National Competitiveness Technology Transfer Act of 1989 (Sections 3131, 3132, 3133, and 3157 of Pub. L. 101- 189 and as amended by Pub. L. 103-160, Sections 3134 and 3160). The Contractor shall conduct technology transfer activities with a purpose of providing benefit from Federal research to U.S. industrial competitiveness. (a) Authority. (1) In order to ensure the full use of the results of research and development efforts of, and the capabilities of, the Laboratory, technology transfer, including Cooperative Research and Development Agreements (CRADAs), is established as a mission of the Laboratory consistent with the policy, principles and purposes of

328

September 2012 Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights  Brent crude oil spot prices have increased at a relatively steady pace from their 2012 low of $89 per barrel on June 25 to their recent high of $117 per barrel on August 23 because of the seasonal tightening of oil markets and continuing unexpected production outages. EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to fall from recent highs over the rest of 2012, averaging $111 per barrel over the last 4 months of 2012 and $103 per barrel in 2013. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices rose by a more modest $17 per barrel between June 25 and August 23, as the WTI discount to Brent crude oil widened from $10 per barrel to $22 per barrel. EIA expects WTI spot prices to average

329

Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices peaked last fall as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. So where do we see crude oil prices going from here? Crude oil prices are expected to be about $28-$30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. Let's explore why we think prices will likely remain high, by looking at an important market barometer - inventories - which measures the

330

APPLICATION FORM Short term course on  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Address: Prof. Tapan K. Sengupta High Performance Computing Lab Department of Aerospace Venue : IIT Kanpur, Kanpur Organized by: High Performance Computing Lab, Dept. of Aerospace Engineering

Srivastava, Kumar Vaibhav

331

Short-Term Energy Outlook July 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Refiner Average Crude Oil Cost 2.42 2.32 2.37 2.39 2.41 2.40 -1.2 3.7 1.3 Wholesale Gasoline Price c 2.99 3.02 3.00 2.84 2.75 2.79 -4.9 -8.9 -6.9 Wholesale Diesel Fuel Price c...

332

Introduction 3 Short Term Opportunities 4  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

sales to commercial and industrial customers ­ Natural gas, power, oil · Power generation ­ Fossil for other fuels (engines, boilers and turbines) · Transportation (LNG and CNG) #12;Example: Hunlock Coal

333

Online short-term solar power forecasting  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

334

Short-Term Prediction of Lagrangian Trajectories  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Lagrangian particles in a cluster are divided in two groups: observable and unobservable. The problem is to predict the unobservable particle positions given their initial positions and velocities based on observations of the observable ...

Leonid I. Piterbarg

2001-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

Short Term Energy Outlook, January 2003  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

perhaps a bit below normal for the U.S. as a whole. For the month of December 2002, then, home heating fuel usage probably was not unusually high, particularly outside of the...

336

Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Monthly average crude oil prices increased for the fourth consecutive month in August 2013, as supply disruptions in Libya increased and concerns over the conflict in...

337

Short-Term Dynamics of Model Errors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The natural instability of the atmosphere is at the origin of the rapid amplification of errors coming from the uncertainty on the initial conditions and from the imperfect representation (the model) of the atmospheric dynamics. In this paper, ...

S. Vannitsem; Z. Toth

2002-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Forecast milder temperatures than last summer contribute to a projected decline in average electricity usage per customer, which is partially offset ...

339

Comfort control for short-term occupancy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

service and conserving energy in the hotel H V A C system. Osuch as hotel guests while reducing energy consumption.satisfaction and lower energy use in the hotel. The concepts

Fountain, M.; Brager, G. S.; Arens, Edward A; Bauman, Fred; Benton, C.

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

340

SHORT-TERM - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Analysis and Forecasting Division (202/586-5382). Macroeconomic Forecast: Energy Product Prices: ... scenario, it is assumed that, after the first

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341

Short-Term Natural Gas Outlook  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA AdministratorPresented to: CWC North American Natural Gas ConferenceHouston, TexasNovember 19, 2003

Information Center

2003-11-19T23:59:59.000Z

342

Short-Term Natural Gas Outlook  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA AdministratorPresented to: CBI Gas Outlook 2004 ConferenceHouston, TexasDecember 5, 2003

Information Center

2003-12-05T23:59:59.000Z

343

Global, Hemispheric, and Zonal Temperature Deviations (CDIAC) - Angell  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Global, Hemispheric, and Zonal Temperature Deviations Derived From a 63-Station Radiosonde Network Graph graphic Graphics Data graphic Data Investigator J. K. Angell National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Air Resources Laboratory (R/E/AR), SSMC3, Station 3459, 1315 East West Highway, Silver Spring, Maryland 20910, U.S.A. About Jim Angell: From the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2005) - Jim Angell's Contributions to Meteorology DOI 10.3334/CDIAC/cli.005 Period of Record 1958-2010 (relative to a 1958-1977 average) Special Note Nine tropical radiosonde stations in this 63-station network were identified as anomalous in Angell (2003). Upon removal of these nine stations, the resulting 54-station network, also presented on the CDIAC website, results in significant differences in many of the times series and

344

Large Deviations in the Superstable Weakly Imperfect Bose Gas  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The superstable Weakly Imperfect Bose Gas {(WIBG)} was originally derived to solve the inconsistency of the Bogoliubov theory of superfluidity. Its grand-canonical thermodynamics was recently solved but not at {point of} the {(first order)} phase transition. This paper proposes to close this gap by using the large deviations formalism and in particular the analysis of the Kac distribution function. It turns out that, as a function of the chemical potential, the discontinuity of the Bose condensate density at the phase transition {point} disappears as a function of the particle density. Indeed, the Bose condensate continuously starts at the first critical particle density and progressively grows but the free-energy per particle stays constant until the second critical density is reached. At higher particle densities, the Bose condensate density as well as the free-energy per particle both increase {monotonously}.

J. -B. Bru; V. A. Zagrebnov

2007-09-21T23:59:59.000Z

345

Policy Flash 2014-09 Class Deviation from the Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

09 Class Deviation from the Department of Energy 09 Class Deviation from the Department of Energy Acquisition Regulation (DEAR) 952.204-2, Security Requirements Policy Flash 2014-09 Class Deviation from the Department of Energy Acquisition Regulation (DEAR) 952.204-2, Security Requirements Questions concerning this policy flash should be directed to Lawrence Butler, of the Contract and Financial Assistance Policy Division at (202) 287-1945 or at lawrence.butler@hq.doe.gov. Policy Flash 13 Class Deviation(2) (3).pdf Signed Class Deviation DEAR 952 204-2.pdf More Documents & Publications Policy Flash 2014-09 Class Deviation from the Department of Energy Acquisition Regulation (DEAR) 952.204-2 Policy Flash 2014-10 Class Deviation DEAR 952.204-02 POLICY FLASH 2013-59 Class Deviation (FAR) 19.15, Women-Owned Small

346

Comparison of Three Methods for Calculating the Standard Deviation of the Wind Direction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Three methods to calculate wind direction standard deviation are evaluated. Although eight hours of wind data show no significant differences between the methods, synthetically generated data having standard deviations near the maximum possible ...

D. Bruce Turner

1986-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

347

Development of an on-line prototype for the instruction of prosthetic gait deviations and biomechanics.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

?? There is currently a lack of web-based instructional material dealing with the subjects of trans-tibial amputee gait deviations, trans-femoral amputee gait deviations, and non-pathological… (more)

Craig, Dana

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

348

Sample path large deviations of Poisson shot noise with heavy tail semi-exponential distributions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Sample path large deviations of Poisson shot noise with heavy tail semi-exponential distributions with heavy-tailed semi-exponential distributions satisfy a large deviation principle with a rate function do not depend on the shot shape. Keywords: Heavy tail distributions; sample path large deviations

Duffy, Ken

349

Policy Flash 2013-31 Class Deviation from the Federal Acquisition  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

1 Class Deviation from the Federal Acquisition 1 Class Deviation from the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) 13.5, Test Program for Certain Commercial Items Policy Flash 2013-31 Class Deviation from the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) 13.5, Test Program for Certain Commercial Items Attached is Policy Flash 2013-31 Class Deviation from the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) 13.5, Test Program for Certain Commercial Items Questions concerning this policy flash should be directed to Richard Bonnell of the Contract and Financial Assistance Policy Division at (202) 287-1747 or at richard.bonnell@hq.doe.gov. Flash 2013-31 Class Deviation FAR 13 5 (2-25).pdf Signed_Class Deviation.pdf More Documents & Publications Policy Flash 2013-01 Policy Flashes FY 2013 Policy Flash 2013-66 Revised Merit Review Guide for Financial Assistance,

350

Policy Flash 2013-31 Class Deviation from the Federal Acquisition  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

31 Class Deviation from the Federal Acquisition 31 Class Deviation from the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) 13.5, Test Program for Certain Commercial Items Policy Flash 2013-31 Class Deviation from the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) 13.5, Test Program for Certain Commercial Items Attached is Policy Flash 2013-31 Class Deviation from the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) 13.5, Test Program for Certain Commercial Items Questions concerning this policy flash should be directed to Richard Bonnell of the Contract and Financial Assistance Policy Division at (202) 287-1747 or at richard.bonnell@hq.doe.gov. Flash 2013-31 Class Deviation FAR 13 5 (2-25).pdf Signed_Class Deviation.pdf More Documents & Publications Policy Flash 2013-01 Policy Flash 2013-66 Revised Merit Review Guide for Financial Assistance,

351

ARTISTIC IMAGE GENERATION BY DEVIATION MAPPING Microsoft Research China, 49 Zhichun Road, Beijing 100080, China  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

technique (deviation mapping) that generates images with artistic appearances, e.g., spray painted wall, embossment, cashmere painting, etc. Our technique employs a deviation map constructed from a single is then painted with a foreground image and illuminated to generate the final result. Interestingly

Rajamani, Sriram K.

352

Nonlinear predictive control to track deviated power of an identified NNARX model of a hydro plant  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents the performance study of predictive control approach in application to hydro plant. The tracking on deviated power as reference signal for identified neural network nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous signal (NNARX) hydro plant ... Keywords: Deviated power, Hydro plant, Identification, Predictive control, Random load

Nand Kishor

2008-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

353

Process Deviation  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

5 WBT/ILT/EX Course Design Process 10_0630 Page 1 of 6 5 WBT/ILT/EX Course Design Process 10_0630 Page 1 of 6 EOTA - Business Process Document Title: WBT/ILT/EX Course Design Process Document Number: ISDP-015 Rev. 10_0630 Document Owner: Elizabeth Sousa Backup Owner: Melissa Otero Approver(s): Melissa Otero Parent Document: ISDP-002, Training Production Process Notify of Changes: ISD, ITT, MGT Referenced Document(s): ISDF-046 Training Design/Development Summary, ISDF-004 Design Document, ISDF-006A WBT Script Template, ISDF- 007 Lesson Plan Template, ISDF-012, ISD History File Checklist ISDP-015 WBT/ILT/EX Course Design Process 10_0630 Page 2 of 6 Revision History: Rev. Description of Change 10_0630 Initial Release ISDP-015 WBT/ILT/EX Course Design Process 10_0630 Page 3 of 6

354

Process Deviation  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

1 Exercise Course Implementation 10_0630 Page 1 of 8 1 Exercise Course Implementation 10_0630 Page 1 of 8 EOTA - Business Process Document Title: Exercise Course Implementation Document Number: ISDP-011 Rev. 10_0630 Document Owner: Elizabeth Sousa Backup Owner: Melissa Otero Approver(s): Melissa Otero Parent Document: ISDP-002, Training Production Process Notify of Changes: ISD, ITT, MGT Referenced Document(s): ISDF-004 Design Document, ISDF-006 WBT Script Template, ISDF-007 Lesson Plan Template, ISDP-012, ILT Course Implementation, ISDF-008 ILT Student Feedback Survey, ISDF-010 After Action Report ISDP-011 Exercise Course Implementation 10_0630 Page 2 of 8 Revision History: Rev. Description of Change 10_0630 Initial Release ISDP-011 Exercise Course Implementation 10_0630 Page 3 of 8

355

Process Deviation  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

5 Functional/Job/Task Analysis Process 11_0718 Page 1 of 8 5 Functional/Job/Task Analysis Process 11_0718 Page 1 of 8 EOTA - Business Process Document Title: Functional/Job/Task Analysis Process Document Number: ISDP-005 Rev 11_0718 Document Owner: Elizabeth Sousa Backup Owner: Melissa Otero Approver(s): Melissa Otero Parent Document: Q-001, Quality Manual Notify of Changes: PM2 Referenced Document(s): ISDF-XXX Vision User Guide (currently being developed ) ISDP-005 Functional/Job/Task Analysis Process 11_0718 Page 2 of 8 Revision History: Rev. Description of Change 08_0410 Initial Release 10_0630 Process modified to match steps within the TPP 11_0718 Minor editorial changes; changed step 8.0 from Task-to-Training Matrix to "Analysis"-to-Training Matrix.

356

Process Deviation  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

10 Course/Analysis Initiation Process 11_0512 Page 1 of 6 10 Course/Analysis Initiation Process 11_0512 Page 1 of 6 EOTA - Business Process Document Title: Course/Analysis Initiation Process Document Number: ISDP- 010 Rev 11_0512 Document Owner: Elizabeth Sousa Backup Owner: Vickie Pleau Approver(s): Melissa Otero Parent Document: ISDP-002, Training Production Process Notify of Changes: ISD, ITT, MGT Referenced Document(s): ISDF-001 Technical Direction, ISDF-035 Analysis Feasibility Assessment, ISDP-010, Course Analysis Initiation Process, ISDP-015, WBT/ILT/Ex Design Process ISDP-010 Course/Analysis Initiation Process 11_0512 Page 2 of 6 Revision History: Rev. Description of Change 10_0630 Initial Release 11_0512 Modified verbiage for clarification and updated referenced documents.

357

Process Deviation  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

4 Course Evaluation and Close-out Process 10_0630 Page 1 of 5 4 Course Evaluation and Close-out Process 10_0630 Page 1 of 5 EOTA - Business Process Document Title: Course Evaluation and Close-out Process Document Number: ISDP-014 Rev. 10_0630 Document Owner: Vickie Pleau Backup Owner: Melissa Otero Approver(s): Melissa Otero Parent Document: ISDP-002, Training Production Process Notify of Changes: ISD, ITT, MGT Referenced Document(s): ISDF-011, ISD History File Acceptance, ISDF-012, ISD History File Checklist ISDP-014 Course Evaluation and Close-out Process 10_0630 Page 2 of 5 Revision History: Rev. Description of Change 10_0630 Initial Release ISDP-014 Course Evaluation and Close-out Process 10_0630 Page 3 of 5 I. Purpose To effectively plan and control the process for evaluating and finalizing EOTA ILT, EX and WBT training products, assuring

358

Process Deviation  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

3 WBT Course Implementation 11_0512 Page 1 of 7 3 WBT Course Implementation 11_0512 Page 1 of 7 EOTA - Business Process Document Title: WBT Course Implementation Document Number: ISDP-013 Rev. 11_0512 Document Owner: Elizabeth Sousa Backup Owner: Vickie Pleau Approver(s): Melissa Otero Parent Document: ISDP-002, Training Product Process Notify of Changes: ISD, ITT, MGT Referenced Document(s): ISDF-014, Course Announcement Template, ITTF-014, Publication Review and Approval, ISDF-010 After Action Report, ISDF-042 Validation & Acceptance, ISDF-048, After Action Report Calculation Template, ITTP-015, Website Development Maintenance ISDP-013 WBT Course Implementation 11_0512 Page 2 of 7 Revision History: Rev. Description of Change 10_0630 Initial Release 11_0405 Added ISDF-048, After Action Report Calculation Template to process.

359

Process Deviation  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

5 Website Development-Maintenance Process 11_0419Page 1 of 6 5 Website Development-Maintenance Process 11_0419Page 1 of 6 EOTA - Business Process Document Title: Website Development-Maintenance Process Document Number: ITTP-015 Rev. 11_0419 Document Owner: Benjamin Aragon Backup Owner: Melissa Otero Approver(s): Melissa Otero Parent Document: Q-001, Quality Manual Notify of Changes: ITT Referenced Document(s): ITTF-016 Website Development/Maintenance Log, ISDP-002 Training Production Process ITTP-015 Website Development-Maintenance Process 11_0419Page 2 of 6 Revision History: Rev. Description of Change A Initial Release 11_0419 Deleted decision point 2.1 and 2.2, incorporated Notifying Requester into step 2.0, modified verbiage for clarification. ITTP-015 Website Development-Maintenance Process 11_0419Page 3 of 6

360

Process Deviation  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

8 WBT Course Development Process 110512 Page 1 of 7 EOTA - Business Process Document Title: WBT Course Development Process Document Number: ISDP- 018 Rev. 110512 Document Owner:...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "includes short-term deviations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Process Deviation  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

6 WBT Programming Process 110426 Page 1 of 5 EOTA - Business Process Document Title: WBT Programming Process Document Number: ITTP-016 Rev. 110426 Document Owner: Doug Bond...

362

Process Deviation  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

6 ILT Course Development Process 110512 Page 1 of 7 EOTA - Business Process Document Title: ILT Course Development Process Document Number: ISDP-016 Rev. 110512 Document Owner:...

363

Process Deviation  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

4 NetworkTechnical Support Process 110406 Page 1 of 5 EOTA - Business Process Document Title: NetworkTechnical Support Process Document Number: ITTP-014 Rev. 110406 Document...

364

Process Deviation  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

2 Training Production Process Overview 110620 1 of 6 EOTA - Business Process Document Title: Training Production Process Document Number: ISDP-002 Rev. 110620 Document Owner:...

365

Process Deviation  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

7 Exercise Development Process 11_0414 Page 1 of 8 7 Exercise Development Process 11_0414 Page 1 of 8 EOTA - Business Process Document Title: Exercise Development Process Document Number: ISDP-017 Revision 11_0414 Document Owner: Elizabeth Sousa Backup Owner: Melissa Otero Approver(s): Melissa Otero Parent Document: ISDP-002, Training Product Process Notify of Changes: ISD, ITT, MGT Referenced Document(s): ISDF-001 Technical Direction, ISDF-004 Design Document, ISDF-006 WBT Script Template, ISDF-007 Lesson Plan Template, ITTP-016 WBT Programming ISDP-017 Exercise Development Process 11_0414 Page 2 of 8 Revision History: Rev. Description of Change 10_0630 Initial Release 11_0223 Made changes to accurately reflect TPP. 11_0414 Added Derivative Classifier to step 12.0 ISDP-017 Exercise Development Process 11_0414 Page 3 of 8

366

Process Deviation  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

2 ILT Course Implementation 11_0512 Page 1 of 8 2 ILT Course Implementation 11_0512 Page 1 of 8 EOTA - Business Process Document Title: ILT Course Implementation Document Number: ISDP-012 Rev. 11_0512 Document Owner: Elizabeth Sousa Backup Owner: Melissa Otero Approver(s): Melissa Otero Parent Document: ISDP-002, Training Production Process Notify of Changes: ISD, ITT, MGT Referenced Document(s): ISDF-007 Lesson Plan Template, ISDF-014 Course Announcement, ISDF-010, After Action Report, ISDF-008 ILT Student Feedback Survey, ISDF-009, Design/Development Review Checklist, ITTF-014 Publication Review and Approval, ISDF-048, After Action Report Calculation Template, ISDP-011, Exercise Course Implementation Process, ITTP-015 Website Development/Maintenance Process, ISDF-015, ILT/EX Course Support Checklist

367

A Comparison of Several “Single-Pass” Estimators of the Standard Deviation of Wind Direction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Computation of the standard deviation of wind direction ?? generally requires repeated consideration of the individual measurements of wind direction. This need for multiple passes through the data sample can create a storage problem for small or ...

R. J. Yamartino

1984-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

368

A Simple Method for Determining the Standard Deviation of Wind Direction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The discontinuity of the wind direction at 360° complicates automatic calculations of some atmospheric parameters. Various methods were suggested to obtain the standard deviation of the wind direction (??). They are reviewed and a simple, once ...

D. Skibin

1984-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

369

On the Algorithms Used to Compute the Standard Deviation of Wind Direction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The standard deviation of wind direction is a very important quantity in meteorology because in addition to being used to determine the dry deposition rate and the atmospheric stability class, it is also employed in the determination of the rate ...

Pierre S. Farrugia; James L. Borg; Alfred Micallef

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

370

Evaluation of fracturing results in deviated wellbores through on-site measurements  

SciTech Connect

Four adjacent oil wells in the Kuparuk River oil field, with deviated angles of 6{sup 0}5', 24{sup 0}6', 27{sup 0} and 36{sup 0}7' from the vertical at the perforations, were analyzed with prefracturing tests. The total fluid volume for these tests varied from 645 to 840 bbl(103 to 134 m/sup 3/) of either clean lease oil or water-based fracturing fluid at low to intermediate rates (up to 15bbl/min(2.4m/sup 3/)). These wells were subsequently fractured with proppant-laden fluid. A series of instantaneous shut-in pressures (ISIO's) was obtained for each well. ISIP's and fracturing pressures decreased with time in two of the four wells with a relatively high friction pressure at the end of the pumping. A radially propagating fracture from a point source of pressure explains this decreasing pressure with time. The elasticity theory predicts that a fracture in a deviated, cased wellbore should intersect the wellbore at one location. Only when the deviated wellbore azimuth is near that of the fracture orientation does the fracture sweep the entire perforated zone. This observation of the fracture orientation relative to the wellbore azimuth based on the pressure analysis is enhanced further by postfracture temperature surveys. It appears that only a relatively small volume of proppant could be displaced in a deviated wellbore. The degree of deviation, however, did not appear to be a major concern in the treatment of size.

Kim, C.M. (Halliburton Services, Duncan, OK (USA)); Champion, J.H. (Arco Alaska Inc. (US)); Cooper, G.D. (Guydon Software Services (US))

1989-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

371

Linear maps preserving maximal deviation and the Jordan structure of quantum systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In the algebraic approach to quantum theory, a quantum observable is given by an element of a Jordan algebra and a state of the system is modelled by a normalized positive functional on the underlying algebra. Maximal deviation of a quantum observable is the largest statistical deviation one can obtain in a particular state of the system. The main result of the paper shows that each linear bijective transformation between JBW algebras preserving maximal deviations is formed by a Jordan isomorphism or a minus Jordan isomorphism perturbed by a linear functional multiple of an identity. It shows that only one numerical statistical characteristic has the power to determine the Jordan algebraic structure completely. As a consequence, we obtain that only very special maps can preserve the diameter of the spectra of elements. Nonlinear maps preserving the pseudometric given by maximal deviation are also described. The results generalize hitherto known theorems on preservers of maximal deviation in the case of self-adjoint parts of von Neumann algebras proved by Molnar.

Hamhalter, Jan [Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Czech Technical University in Prague, Technicka 2, 166 27 Prague 6 (Czech Republic)

2012-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

372

Policy Flash 2013-64 Acquisition Letter 10 and Class Deviation for  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Policy Flash 2013-64 Acquisition Letter 10 and Class Deviation for Policy Flash 2013-64 Acquisition Letter 10 and Class Deviation for Nondisplacement of Qualified Workers Policy Flash 2013-64 Acquisition Letter 10 and Class Deviation for Nondisplacement of Qualified Workers Questions concerning this policy flash should be directed to Jason Taylor of the Contract and Financial Assistance Policy Division, Office of Policy, Office of Acquisition and Project Management at (202) 287-1560 or at jason.taylor@hq.doe.gov. Policy Flash_Nondisplacement.pdf SIGNED_classdeviation970.5244-1.pdf AL nondisplacement of qualified workers.pdf More Documents & Publications Policy Flash 2013-79 Professional and Consultant service cost (FAR 31.205-33) Policy Flash 2013-41 Contracts Periods of Performance Exceeding 5 Years Policy Flashes FY 2013

373

Results of stress-oriented and aligned perforating in fracturing deviated wells  

SciTech Connect

This paper reports the first results of stress-oriented and aligned perforation of deviated wells at the Kuparuk River field, Alaska. Preferred perforation alignment and spacing are calculated for each well so the fractures from individual perforations link to produce a single zipper fracture plane along the deviated wellbore. Results of the first application of this technique are presented from the 26-well development of Drillsite 2K. The results from use of three different oriented-casing-gun systems and pertinent data from Drillsite 2K fracture stimulation treatments are discussed. Comparisons to drillsite where nonaligned perforating strategies were used show a significant reduction in perforation friction, enabling the placement of large, more productive fracture treatments. Application of this technique to deviated and vertical wells and its use at Kuparuk on developments after Drillsite 2K are discussed.

Pearson, C.M.; Bond, A.J.; Eck, M.E.; Schmidt, J.H. (Arco Alaska Inc. (US))

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

Muon Charge Information from Geomagnetic Deviation in Inclined Extensive Air Showers  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We propose to extract the charge information of high energy muons in very inclined extensive air showers by analyzing their relative lateral positions in the shower transverse plane. We calculate the muon lateral deviation under the geomagnetic field and compare it to dispersive deviations from other causes. By our criterion of resolvability, positive and negative muons with energies above $10^4$ GeV will be clearly separated into two lobes if the shower zenith angle is larger than $70^\\circ$. Thus we suggest a possible approach to measure the $\\mu^+ / \\mu^-$ ratio for high energy muons.

BingKan Xue; Bo-Qiang Ma

2006-11-22T23:59:59.000Z

375

Evaluation of Patient Residual Deviation and Its Impact on Dose Distribution for Proton Radiotherapy  

SciTech Connect

The residual deviations after final patient repositioning based on bony anatomy and the impact of such deviations on the proton dose distributions was investigated. Digitally reconstructed radiographs (DRRs) and kilovoltage (kV) 'portal verification' images from 10 patients treated with passively scattered proton radiotherapy was used to estimate the residual deviation. These changes were then applied to the location of isocenter points that, in effect, moved the isocenter relative to the apertures and compensators. A composite verification plan was obtained and compared with the original clinical treatment plan to evaluate any changes in dose distributions. The residual deviations were fitted to a Gaussian distribution with {mu} = -0.9 {+-} 0.1 mm and {sigma} = 2.55 {+-} 0.07 mm. The dose distribution showed under- and overcovered dose spots with complex dose distributions both in the target volumes and in the organs at risk. In some cases, this amounts to 63.5% above the intended clinical plan. Although patient positioning is carefully verified before treatment delivery and setup uncertainties are accounted for by using compensator smearing and aperture margins, a residual shift in a patient's position can considerably affect the dose distribution.

Arjomandy, Bijan, E-mail: arjomandy_2000@yahoo.com

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

376

Standard Deviations of Wind Speed and Direction from Observations over a Smooth Surface  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Measurements of wind speed and direction made every minute on a 15 m mast sited on a large expanse of sea ice were analyzed to study the behavior of their standard deviation. The large scatter normally observed under low wind speed and/or non-...

Sylvain M. Joffre; Tuomas Laurila

1988-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

377

PREDICTION OF CUTTINGS BED HEIGHT WITH COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS IN DRILLING HORIZONTAL AND HIGHLY DEVIATED WELLS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AND HIGHLY DEVIATED WELLS Doguhan Yilmaz, Mayang Tyagi Craft & Hawkins Department of Petroleum Engineering Louisiana State University Abstract In oil well drilling, the efficient transport of drilled cuttings from the well bottom to the surface is an important process affecting the overall drilling performance

Ullmer, Brygg

378

DRA: a new buffer management scheme for wireless atm networks using aggregative large deviation principle  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, we present a buffer management scheme called Dynamic Resource Allocation (DRA) that provides TCP traffic control guarantees to VCs carrying multiple dynamic discard thresholds (Multiple Dynamic Thresholds-MDT) over a wireless CDMA ATM ... Keywords: Buffer management, CDMA, Dynamic resource management, Large deviation principle, QoS, Wireless ATM

M. S. Obaidat; C. Ben Ahmed; N. Boudriga

2003-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

379

Methods for Estimating the Mean and the Standard Deviation of Wind Direction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In a recent paid, the author reviewed methods for estimating the mean and the standard deviation of wind direction. Some comments on this subject are now added. If large sporadic eddy fluctuations do not occur in a sampling duration, we can ...

Yukihiro Mori

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

380

Problems with the Current Definitions of the Standard Deviation of Wind Direction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Much of the ongoing debate about how to define the standard deviation of wind direction can be attributed to the widespread implementation of a faulty method of defining it in wind-measuring instrumentation in the previous decade. In this paper, ...

N. I. Fisher

1987-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

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381

Deviation of Long-Period Tides from Equilibrium: Kinematics and Geostrophy  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

New empirical estimates of the long-period fortnightly (Mf) tide obtained from TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) altimeter data confirm significant basin-scale deviations from equilibrium. Elevations in the low-latitude Pacific have reduced amplitude and lag ...

Gary D. Egbert; Richard D. Ray

2003-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

Recent HRIBF Research - Deviations from U(5) Symmetry in 116Cd  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Recent HRIBF Research - Deviations from U(5) Symmetry in Recent HRIBF Research - Deviations from U(5) Symmetry in 116 Cd [J. C. Batchelder (UNIRIB), spokesperson] The cadmium isotopes near their mid-neutron shell, i.e., N=66, exhibit one of the well-known examples of shape coexistence [1]. In addition to the spherical quadrupole vibrational levels (hereafter referred to as normal phonon states), which are described within the Interacting Boson Model (IBM) by the U(5) limit, they possess intruding proton particle-hole configurations that give rise to additional states in the low-lying spectrum of levels [2]. These intruding excitations may mix with the normal states, perturbing their properties. However, once this mixing is accounted for [3], the underlying normal phonon states have been claimed to be very close to the

383

March 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

(STEO) (STEO) Highlights  The weekly U.S. average regular gasoline retail price fell in early March for the first time since mid-December. The March 11 average was $3.71 per gallon, down $0.07 per gallon from February 25. EIA expects that lower crude oil prices will result in monthly average regular gasoline prices staying near the February average of $3.67 per gallon over the next few months, with the annual average regular gasoline retail price declining from $3.63 per gallon in 2012 to $3.55 per gallon in 2013 and $3.38 per gallon in 2014. Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain and the current values of futures and options contracts suggest that prices

384

Short-Term Energy Outlook April 1999-Summer Gasoline Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Summer Motor Gasoline Outlook Summer Motor Gasoline Outlook This year's base case outlook for summer (April-September) motor gasoline markets may be summarized as follows: * Pump Prices: (average regular) projected to average about $1.13 per gallon this summer, up 9-10 cents from last year. The increase, while substantial, still leaves average prices low compared to pre-1998 history, especially in inflation-adjusted terms. * Supplies: expected to be adequate, overall. Beginning-of-season inventories were even with the 1998 level, which was at the high end of the normal range. However, some refinery problems on the West Coast have tightened things up, at least temporarily. * Demand: up 2.0 percent from last summer due to solid economic growth and low (albeit rising) fuel prices; highway travel may reach 1.4 trillion miles for the

385

April 2013 Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

and Summer Fuels Outlook and Summer Fuels Outlook (STEO) Highlights  During the April-through-September summer driving season this year, regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $3.63 per gallon. The projected monthly average regular retail gasoline price falls from $3.69 per gallon in May to $3.57 per gallon in September. EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $3.56 per gallon in 2013 and $3.39 per gallon in 2014, compared with $3.63 per gallon in 2012. The July 2013 New York harbor reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending (RBOB) futures contract averaged $2.97 per gallon for the five trading days ending April 4, 2013. Based on the market value of

386

Short-Term Energy Outlook April 2000--STEO Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

April 2000 April 2000 Summer 2000 Motor Gasoline Outlook Summary For the upcoming summer season (April to September), motor gasoline markets are projected to exhibit an extraordinarily tight supply/demand balance. * Retail gasoline prices (regular grade) are expected to average $1.46 per gallon, 25 percent higher than last summer's average of $1.17 per gallon. That projection also exceeds the previous (current-dollar) record summer average of $1.35 recorded in 1981. Nominal prices are expected to reach a peak of $1.52 per gallon in April-a new record--and decline steadily to $1.39 per gallon by September due to the impact of increases in world-wide crude oil production. These projections presume no disruptions of refinery motor gasoline production. *

387

December 2012 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

(STEO) (STEO)  EIA expects that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $110 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2012, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price will average $89 per barrel. The Brent and WTI crude oil spot prices are forecast to average $104 per barrel and $88 per barrel, respectively, in 2013. The projected WTI discount to Brent crude oil, which averaged $23 per barrel in November 2012, falls to an average of $11 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2013. This forecast rests on the assumption that U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) grows by 2.1 percent in 2012 and 1.8 percent in 2013, while world

388

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

than average, which means that price volatility can be expected to continue in these tight market conditions. Natural gas demand in 2004 is expected to rise as industrial...

389

Short-Term Energy Outlook - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The historical energy ... programs could make the system more vulnerable to local outages and ... on the country and the time of year. Compared with the cost of Phase ...

390

Short-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

uptick in unplanned crude oil production outages and increased tensions in the ... since May of this year, ... 2017 Levelized Costs AEO 2012 Early Release Author:

391

Short term wind speed forecasting with evolved neural networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Concerns about climate change, energy security and the volatility of the price of fossil fuels has led to an increased demand for renewable energy. With wind turbines being one of the most mature renewable energy technologies available, the global use ... Keywords: forecasting, renewable energy, wind-speed

David Corne; Alan Reynolds; Stuart Galloway; Edward Owens; Andrew Peacock

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

392

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

2.3 percent in 2002 compared with the 2001 growth rate of 2.4 percent. Lower natural gas prices have reduced production and resource development incentives from their highs of...

393

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2002, compared with the 2001 growth rate of 2.4 percent. Lower demand and lower natural gas prices have reduced production and resource development incentives from their highs of...

394

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1.7 percent in 2002 compared with the 2001 growth rate of 2.4 percent. Lower natural gas prices have reduced production and resource development incentives from their highs of...

395

Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

continued production growth from U.S. tight oil formations and Canadian oil sands. U.S ... Drilling in tight oil plays in the onshore ...

396

Short-Term Energy Outlook - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

tight oil formations and Canadian oil sands. EIA slightly increased its forecast for Canada’s oil sands output ...

397

Towards short-term forecasting of ventricular tachyarrhythmias  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis reports the discovery of spectral patterns in ECG signals that exhibit a temporal behavior correlated with an approaching Ventricular Tachyarrhythmic (VTA) event. A computer experiment is performed where a ...

Santos, Gustavo Sato dos

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

Short-term streamflow forecasting: ARIMA vs neural networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Streamflow forecasting is very important for water resources management and flood defence. In this paper two forecasting methods are compared: ARIMA versus a multilayer perceptron neural network. This comparison is done by forecasting a streamflow of ... Keywords: artificial neural networks, auto regressive integrated moving average, forecasting, streamflow

Juan Frausto-Solis; Esmeralda Pita; Javier Lagunas

2008-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

Short-Term Climatic Fluctuations Forced by Thermal Anomalies  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A two-level, global, spectral model is used to study the response of the atmosphere to sea surface temperature anomalies. Two sea surface temperature anomaly patterns are investigated. The first, called the El Niño pattern (Experiment 1), ...

Adel F. Hanna; Duane E. Stevens; Elmar R. Reiter

1984-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Privacy/Security Copyright & Reuse Accessibility. Related Sites U.S. Department of Energy USA.gov FedStats. Stay Connected Facebook Twitter YouTube Email Updates

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to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

EIA Short-Term and Winter Fuels Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Washington, DC, October 21, 2011 . EIA expects gasoline prices will track the cost of crude oil, with regular gasoline prices this winter averaging about 34 cents per

402

EIA Short-Term Outlook for Natural Gas  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

This presentation at the 2006 State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference in North Falmouth, Massachusetts, outlined EIA's July 2006 forecast for natural gas supply, demand, and markets through 2007.

Information Center

2006-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

403

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... Libya, and Nigeria (Africa); Ecuador and Venezuela (South America); Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates ...

404

EIA’s Short Term Energy (RSTEM) Table of Contents  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Demand responses to increases or decreases weather or prices are not ... discretionary highway travel done in response to higher pump prices.

405

Particle swarm optimization technique based short-term hydrothermal scheduling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Particle swarm optimization is applied to determine the optimal hourly schedule of power generation in a hydrothermal power system. A multi-reservoir cascaded hydroelectric system with a nonlinear relationship between water discharge rate, net head and ... Keywords: Cascaded reservoirs, Hydrothermal scheduling, Particle swarm optimization

K. K. Mandal; M. Basu; N. Chakraborty

2008-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

Short-Term Energy Outlook - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Pages 7 and 8 of this notice provide a cross ... and electrical sales or transfers to ... Data reflect generation supplied by electricity-only and combined-heat ...

407

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... Report › Monthly Energy Review › Residential Energy ... and Heat Generation from ... became the first major solar thermal electric power plant to ...

408

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy Information Administration - EIA - Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government. ... storage, imports and exports, production, prices, sales.

409

Short Term Creep Behavior, Damage and Microstructure Study of a ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Environmentally Assisted Cracking Susceptibility Assessment of AP 1000 Reactor Coolant Pump Flywheel Retainer Ring A289 18Cr-18Mn Steel by Slow Strain ...

410

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Coal. National coal mining employment, based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the first 10 months, is down 2.2% from the same period last ...

411

A Short-Term Cloud Forecast Scheme Using Cross Correlations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes a cloud forecast technique using lag cross correlations. Cloud motion vectors are retrieved at a subset of points through multiple applications of a cross-correlation analysis. An area in the first of two sequential frames of ...

Thomas M. Hamill; Thomas Nehrkorn

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

412

Short-term microbial testing of shale oil materials  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Paraho/Sohio Shale Oil was found to be mutagenic in the Ames assay when assayed with the frameshift strain TA98 and incorporating metabolic activation with rat liver homogenates (Aroclor induced S-9). The mutagenic activity was contributed by the organic constituents of the basic and the neutral fractions. Hydrotreatment of the shale oil abolished the mutagenic activity. Results obtained in the yeast assay supported these observations. Refined oil samples from Paraho/Sohio refinery were not mutagenic. The samples rank for their mutagenic activity as coal oils > shale oil > natural petroleum crudes.

Rao, T.K.; Epler, J.L.; Guerin, M.R.; Clark, B.R.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

413

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Coal. Low natural gas prices, weak electricity demand growth, and the need to comply with the implementation of the Environmental Protection Agency's ...

414

Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

of November, three of Nigeria’s crude streams (Qua Iboe, Forcados, and Brass River) were under force ...

415

Short-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

lower on November 7 compared to October 1 and nearly matching its lowest point in ... volume for the first 10 months is lagging from the same time ...

416

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook ...  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

2005 Hurricane Katrina (Figures 1 and 2) The Gulf of Mexico coast region is a major oil and natural gas supply center for the United States with significant offshore oil and...

417

February 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

economy has improved since the third quarter of 2012. as key manufacturing indexes and refinery crude oil inputs have increased. Infrastructure investment and consumer spending...

418

Newporter Apartments: Deep Energy Retrofit Short-Term Results  

SciTech Connect

This project demonstrates a path to meet the goal of the Building America program to reduce home energy use by 30% in multi-family buildings. The project demonstrates cost effective energy savings targets as well as improved comfort and indoor environmental quality (IEQ) associated with deep energy retrofits by a large public housing authority as part of a larger rehabilitation effort. The project focuses on a typical 1960's vintage low-rise multi-family apartment community (120 units in three buildings).

Gordon, A.; Howard, L.; Kunkle, R.; Lubliner, M.; Auer, D.; Clegg, Z.

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

Measuring Short-term Air Conditioner Demand Reductions for Operations...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

frequently without affecting customer comfort. A key issue for grid operations and electricity market settlement is how to accurately measure shorter-term (e.g., ten's of...

420

EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Winter Fuels Outlook ... (October 1– March 31) for all fossil fuels Percent change in fuel bills from last winter (forecast) Fuel bill . Base case . forecast :

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "includes short-term deviations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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421

EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Winter Fuels Outlook for National Association of State Energy Officials . ... for all fossil fuels Percent change in fuel bills from last winter (forecast)

422

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

EIA estimates that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels declined by 3.9% in 2012 from the previous year, and projects increases of 1.6% in 2013 and 1.0% in 2014.

423

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Monthly estimated domestic crude oil production exceeded crude oil imports in October for the first time since February 1995, ... Real Prices Viewer ...

424

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Analysis & Projections. Monthly and yearly energy forecasts, analysis of energy topics, financial analysis, Congressional reports. Markets & ...

425

A Statistical Approach to Short-Term Thunderstorm Outlooks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A multiple discriminant analysis program is used to obtain prediction functions for general and severe thunderstorm activity during April and July. Four predictors, lifted index, mean low-level mixing ratio, K index and mean 200–300 mb divergence,...

Richard P. McNulty

1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

426

QUARTER SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK QUARTERLY PROJECTIONS ENERGY...  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

the historical data may not precisely match that published in the MER. SPR: Strategic Petroleum Reserve Notes: Minor discrepancies with other published EIA historical...

427

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Natural gas working inventories on December 27 totaled 2.97 trillion cubic feet ... d U.S. Residential average. WTI Crude Oil a (dollars per barrel) ...

428

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy Information Administration ... Retail and Other Industry ... Airline Ticket Price Index Raw Steel Production

429

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy Information Administration - EIA ... Consumption & Efficiency. Energy use in homes, commercial buildings, manufacturing, and ...

430

Short Term Energy Outlook Supplement - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

of Mexico Crude Oil and ... Through the end of 2005, MMS reported that the cumulative loss as a ... After Katrina struck the Louisiana coast ...

431

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

6.27 in June, as strong demand for natural gas coupled with high petroleum prices has led to higher gas prices despite nearly normal storage inventory levels. Storage stocks at...

432

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

levels. Cold temperatures since the first of the year have increased heating demand and led to a rapid drawdown of storage stocks, particularly in the East. As of March 7, 2003,...

433

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

of May, as strong demand for natural gas coupled with high petroleum prices has led to higher gas prices despite nearly normal storage inventory levels. Storage stocks at...

434

The Short-Term Oil Market Outlook - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Forecasts of 2011 growth in world consumption vary, but agree growth will be led by non-OECD countries-0.01 1.46. 1.45-0.16. 1.57. 1.41. 0.18. 1.04. 1.23-0.5

435

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

levels. Cold temperatures since the first of the year have increased heating demand and led to a more rapid drawdown of storage stocks than previously anticipated. As of February...

436

A Neural Network Short-Term Forecast of Significant Thunderstorms  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Case studies are the typical means by which meteorologists pass on their knowledge of how to solve a particular weather-forecasting problem to other forecasters. A case study helps others recognize an important pattern and enhances the ...

Donald W. McCann

1992-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

437

The WGNE Assessment of Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Twenty-four-hour and 48-h quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from 11 operational numerical weather prediction models have been verified for a 4-yr period against rain gauge observations over the United States, Germany, and Australia to ...

Elizabeth E. Ebert; Ulrich Damrath; Werner Wergen; Michael E. Baldwin

2003-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

438

Short-Term Climatic Variability of the Arctic  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The circulation of the Arctic atmosphere undergoes large fluctuations about its monthly and annual means. The statistics of Arctic sea level pressure and temperature are evaluated in order to place Arctic atmospheric variability into the context ...

John E. Walsh; William L. Chapman

1990-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

Short-Term Single-Station Forecasting of Precipitation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast probabilities of rain were calculated up to 12 hours in advance using a Markov chain model applied to three-hourly observations from five major Australian cities. The four weather states chosen in this first study were three cloudiness ...

A. J. Miller; L. M. Leslie

1984-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

440

Combining Predictive Schemes in Short-Term Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this article, the theory is presented for a linear combination of two independent predictive techniques (either probabilistic or binary). It is shown that substantial gains might be expected for optimal weighting of the combination. The theory ...

K. Fraedrich; L. M. Leslie

1987-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "includes short-term deviations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
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441

Dynamics of Short-Term Univariate Forecast Error Covariances  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The covariance equation based on second-order closure for dynamics governed by a general scalar nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) is studied. If the governing dynamics involve n space dimensions, then the covariance equation is a PDE ...

Stephen E. Cohn

1993-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Natural Gas Summit Short-Term Energy Outlook, 2003  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Natural Gas Summit Washington, DC June 26, 2003

Information Center

2003-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

443

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Summer 2013 Outlook for ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Central and Mountain states , where summer-over-summer increases in retail electricity prices outweigh lower projected electricity usage.

444

III. -ECONOMY Pig production : short-term prospects  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

price forecasting H. MAROUBY LT.P., Service Economie, 34, bd de la Gare, 3150!0 Toulouse As pig price forecasting, a management based on forecasting in livestock rearing relies on an estimation of the feed price evolution. A feed price forecast is carried out three times a year for a 12-month period and is based

Recanati, Catherine

445

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Summer Fuels Outlook U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Prices. EIA expects that regular-grade gasoline retail prices, which averaged $3.69 per gallon last ...

446

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Prices Global Crude Oil Prices. Brent crude oil spot prices averaged between $108/bbl and $112/bbl for the sixth consecutive month in December 2013 at ...

447

Short term wind power forecasting using time series neural networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting wind power energy is very important issue in a liberalized market and the prediction tools can make wind energy be competitive in these kinds of markets. This paper will study an application of time-series and neural network for predicting ... Keywords: neural networks, time series, wind power forecasting

Mohammadsaleh Zakerinia; Seyed Farid Ghaderi

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

448

Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook (STEO)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Wood. The use of cord wood and wood pellets as the primary residential space heating fuel has increased by 39% since 2004, to about 2.5 million households in 2012.

449

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Department of Energy USA.gov FedStats. Stay Connected Facebook Twitter YouTube Email Updates RSS Feeds ...

450

SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should not be ... Order and Information Desk at 202-783-3238 to verify prices.

451

Short-Term atom Outlook - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

in cooperation with the Department of Energy's Office of International Affairs. ... An order form is enclosed for your convenience. Send order form and payment to:

452

Short?Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Key drivers for EIA ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Source: U.S. Energy ... and increase production, they also reduce producer risk by ensuring that a large cross?section of rock is exposed ...

453

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... led by increases in liquefied petroleum gas and distillate consumption. Motor gasoline and jet fuel consumption, however, remained relatively flat, ...

454

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Monthly and yearly energy forecasts, analysis of energy topics, ... Release Date; January 2013: 01/08/2013: February 2013: 02/12/2013: March 2013: 03/12/2013: April 2013:

455

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Monthly and yearly energy forecasts, analysis of energy topics, ... Release Date: October 8, 2013 | Next Release Date: November 13, 2013 ...

456

Development of Short-Term Transmission Line Capacity Forecasting Methodology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A sophisticated and inclusive predictive tool to give utilities the capability of dynamic line rating currently does not exist. The scope of this project is to develop a reliable predictive system that integrates innovative numerical modeling with real-time and historical meteorological data. The modeling scheme used in this phase of the project involved making predictions for times in the past, also known as hindcasts, then comparing those results with the historical record. Future implementations of th...

2008-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

457

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy Information Administration - EIA ... Non-hydro renewable power generation rises by 3.6% this winter, which is a lower growth rate than in recent years.

458

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Hydroelectric Power Wood Biomass Waste Biomass Wind Geothermal Solar Industrial Sector Total Consumption Hydroelectric Power Wood Biomass Waste ...

459

Short-Term Load Forecasting This paper discusses the state of the art in short-term load fore-  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

aspects for the development and usage of STLF models and packages. The annotated bibliography offersGas & Electric Co., San Francisco, CA F. D. Galiana is with the Department of Electrical Engineering, IEEE Log

Gross, George

460

Deviation to the Test Program and Procedures for the 710 Critical Experiment Reactor Control Drum Mockup Experiment  

SciTech Connect

This document describes a deviation from the "Test Program and Procedures for the 710 Critical Experiment Reactor Control Drum Mockup Experiment," TM-64-3-706, which was made in accordance with ITS Standard Practice J80-81 on September 14, 1964. The deviation did not involve a significant change in the safety of the operation.

Sims, F.L.

1964-09-14T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "includes short-term deviations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Deviations from Tri-Bimaximal Neutrino Mixing Using Type II Seesaw  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We study the possibility of generating deviations from tri-bimaximal (TBM) neutrino mixing to explain the non-zero reactor mixing angle within the framework of both type I and type II seesaw mechanisms. The type I seesaw term gives rise to the $\\mu-\\tau$ symmetric TBM pattern of neutrino mass matrix as predicted by generic flavor symmetry models like $A_4$ whereas the type II seesaw term gives rise to the required deviations from TBM pattern to explain the non-zero $\\theta_{13}$. Considering extremal values of Majorana CP phases such that the neutrino mass eigenvalues have the structure $(m_1, -m_2, m_3)$ and $(m_1, m_2, m_3)$, we numerically fit the type I seesaw term by taking oscillation as well as cosmology data and then compute the predictions for neutrino parameters after the type II seesaw term is introduced. We consider a minimal structure of the type II seesaw term and check whether the predictions for neutrino parameters lie in the $3\\sigma$ range. We also outline two possible flavor symmetry models to justify the minimal structure of the type II seesaw term considered in the analysis.

Debasish Borah

2013-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

462

Appendix F Cultural Resources, Including  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Appendix F Appendix F Cultural Resources, Including Section 106 Consultation STATE OF CALIFORNIA - THE RESOURCES AGENCY EDMUND G. BROWN, JR., Governor OFFICE OF HISTORIC PRESERVATION DEPARTMENT OF PARKS AND RECREATION 1725 23 rd Street, Suite 100 SACRAMENTO, CA 95816-7100 (916) 445-7000 Fax: (916) 445-7053 calshpo@parks.ca.gov www.ohp.parks.ca.gov June 14, 2011 Reply in Reference To: DOE110407A Angela Colamaria Loan Programs Office Environmental Compliance Division Department of Energy 1000 Independence Ave SW, LP-10 Washington, DC 20585 Re: Topaz Solar Farm, San Luis Obispo County, California Dear Ms. Colamaria: Thank you for seeking my consultation regarding the above noted undertaking. Pursuant to 36 CFR Part 800 (as amended 8-05-04) regulations implementing Section

463

Deviation of Stellar Orbits from Test Particle Trajectories Around Sgr A* Due to Tides and Winds  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Monitoring the orbits of stars around Sgr A* offers the possibility of detecting the precession of their orbital planes due to frame dragging, of measuring the spin and quadrupole moment of the black hole, and of testing the no-hair theorem. Here we investigate whether the deviations of stellar orbits from test-particle trajectories due to wind mass loss and tidal dissipation of the orbital energy compromise such measurements. We find that the effects of stellar winds are, in general, negligible. On the other hand, for the most eccentric orbits (e>0.96) for which an optical interferometer, such as GRAVITY, will detect orbital plane precession due to frame dragging, the tidal dissipation of orbital energy occurs at timescales comparable to the timescale of precession due to the quadrupole moment of the black hole. As a result, this non-conservative effect is a potential source of systematic uncertainty in testing the no-hair theorem with stellar orbits.

Dimitrios Psaltis; Gongjie Li; Abraham Loeb

2012-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

464

Countries Gasoline Prices Including Taxes  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Countries (U.S. dollars per gallon, including taxes) Countries (U.S. dollars per gallon, including taxes) Date Belgium France Germany Italy Netherlands UK US 01/13/14 7.83 7.76 7.90 8.91 8.76 8.11 3.68 01/06/14 8.00 7.78 7.94 8.92 8.74 8.09 3.69 12/30/13 NA NA NA NA NA NA 3.68 12/23/13 NA NA NA NA NA NA 3.63 12/16/13 7.86 7.79 8.05 9.00 8.78 8.08 3.61 12/9/13 7.95 7.81 8.14 8.99 8.80 8.12 3.63 12/2/13 7.91 7.68 8.07 8.85 8.68 8.08 3.64 11/25/13 7.69 7.61 8.07 8.77 8.63 7.97 3.65 11/18/13 7.99 7.54 8.00 8.70 8.57 7.92 3.57 11/11/13 7.63 7.44 7.79 8.63 8.46 7.85 3.55 11/4/13 7.70 7.51 7.98 8.70 8.59 7.86 3.61 10/28/13 8.02 7.74 8.08 8.96 8.79 8.04 3.64 10/21/13 7.91 7.71 8.11 8.94 8.80 8.05 3.70 10/14/13 7.88 7.62 8.05 8.87 8.74 7.97 3.69

465

Evaluation of Several “Single-Pass” Estimators of the Mean and the Standard Deviation of Wind Direction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Proposed single-pass methods for estimating the mean (D?) and the standard deviation (?d) of wind direction and other problems in wind statistics have been evaluated using extensive field data. It can be concluded that Mardia's methods for ...

Yukihiro Mori

1986-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

466

Fluctuation theorem and large deviation function for a solvable model of a molecular motor  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We study a discrete stochastic model of a molecular motor. This discrete model can be viewed as a \\emph{minimal} ratchet model. We extend our previous work on this model, by further investigating the constraints imposed by the Fluctuation Theorem on the operation of a molecular motor far from equilibrium. In this work, we show the connections between different formulations of the Fluctuation Theorem. One formulation concerns the generating function of the currents while another one concerns the corresponding large deviation function, which we have calculated exactly for this model. A third formulation of FT concerns the ratio of the probability of making one forward step to the probability of making one backward step. The predictions of this last formulation of the Fluctuation Theorem adapted to our model are in very good agreement with the data of Carter and Cross [Nature, {\\bf 435}, 308 (2005)] on single molecule measurements with kinesin. Finally, we show that all the formulations of FT can be understood from the notion of entropy production.

D. Lacoste; A. W. C. Lau; K. Mallick

2008-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

467

A high precision instrument to measure angular and binocular deviation introduced by aircraft windscreens by using a shadow casting technique  

SciTech Connect

Objects viewed through transparent sheets with residual non-parallelism and irregularity appear shifted and distorted. This distortion is measured in terms of angular and binocular deviation of an object viewed through the transparent sheet. The angular and binocular deviations introduced are particularly important in the context of aircraft windscreens and canopies as they can interfere with decision making of pilots especially while landing, leading to accidents. In this work, we have developed an instrument to measure both the angular and binocular deviations introduced by transparent sheets. This instrument is especially useful in the qualification of aircraft windscreens and canopies. It measures the deviation in the geometrical shadow cast by a periodic dot pattern trans-illuminated by the distorted light beam from the transparent test specimen compared to the reference pattern. Accurate quantification of the shift in the pattern is obtained by cross-correlating the reference shadow pattern with the specimen shadow pattern and measuring the location of the correlation peak. The developed instrument is handy to use and computes both angular and binocular deviation with an accuracy of less than {+-}0.1 mrad ( Almost-Equal-To 0.036 mrad) and has an excellent repeatability with an error of less than 2%.

Shivananju, B. N.; Yamdagni, S. [Department of Instrumentation and Applied Physics, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012 (India); Vasu, R. M. [Department of Instrumentation and Applied Physics, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012 (India); Applied Photonics Initiative, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012 (India); Asokan, S. [Department of Instrumentation and Applied Physics, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012 (India); Applied Photonics Initiative, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012 (India); Robert Bosch Centre for Cyber Physical Systems, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012 (India)

2012-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

468

Incident detection using the Standard Normal Deviate model and travel time information from probe vehicles  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

One application of travel time information explored in this thesis is freeway incident detection. It is vital to develop reliable methods for automatically detecting incidents to facilitate the quick response and removal of incidents before they cause breakdowns in traffic flow. The use of real-time travel time data to monitor freeway conditions has the advantages over conventional loop detectors of taking into account the dynamic, longitudinal nature of traffic flow and requiring data from only a portion of the traffic stream. This study employed the Standard Normal Deviate (SND) Model to test the feasibility of using travel time data to detect lane blocking incidents. The fundamental concept of the SND Model was based on the comparison of real-time travel time data to historical travel time data for given freeway segments during specified times. The travel time and incident reports used were collected through the Real-Time Traffic Information System (RTTIS) in the north freeway corridor of Houston, Texas using probe vehicles equipped with cellular telephones. The data were compiled on 39 freeway links from October 1991 through August 1992 on weekdays during morning and afternoon data collection periods. The results of incident detection tests, applying the SND Model to incident and travel time me data from the North Freeway, indicated high successful incident detection rates. However, high false alarm rates also resulted from the SND Model test applications. An optimum SND value of 2.0 was observed for the North Freeway test data. At this value the SND tests produced successful incident detection rates of 70 percent and higher during both the morning and afternoon periods. False alarm rates were also 70 percent. The best results were achieved on those freeway sections where the most incident and travel time data had been collected. The overall results of the incident detection tests on the North Freeway demonstrated that the SND Model was a feasible incident detection algorithm, but required an extensive historical travel time data base.

Mountain, Christopher Eugene

1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

469

Application of Mechanistic Models in Predicting Flow Behavior in Deviated Wells Under UBD Conditions.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Underbalanced drilling (UBD) has increased in recent years because of the many advantages associated with it. These include increase in the rate of penetration and… (more)

ALAdwani, Faisal Abdullah

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

470

Analytic fit of deviation caused by atmospheric refraction of starlight as a function of space-based sensor position  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple prescription describes how space-borne sensors with fields of view less than one degree can be properly aimed at starlight that passes near the Earth`s surface and is therefore refracted by the Earth`s atmosphere. Atmospheric refraction effects cause deviations up to about one degree that distort the light path and can cause the target to be missed. Deviations are contrasted with those experienced for a target on the Earth. Such refractive corrections have long been available for Earth-based sensors looking through the atmosphere. The corrections have not been available for sensors in space. The prescription is illustrated by example.

Vittitoe, C.N.; Schmidt, R.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Optics and Exploratory Technologies Dept.

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

471

Toward Understanding the Causes of Low-Frequency Variability: The Interannual Standard Deviation of Monthly Mean 700-mb Height  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The field of standard deviation of monthly mean 700-mb geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere for each of the 12 months over the 1950–1991 period, among other auxiliary statistics, is compiled in an atlas to which this paper is companion. ...

Anthony G. Barnston; Huug M. van den Dool

1993-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

Science Accelerator content now includes multimedia  

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

Science Accelerator content now includes multimedia Science Accelerator has expanded its suite of collections to include ScienceCinema, which contains videos produced by the U.S....

473

Petroleum Gasoline & Distillate Needs Including the Energy ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Petroleum Gasoline & Distillate Needs Including the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) Impacts

474

Petroleum Gasoline & Distillate Needs Including the Energy ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Home > Petroleum > Analysis > Petroleum Gasoline & Distillate Needs Including the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) ...

475

Deviation of the Test Program and Procedures for the 710 Critical Experiment Reactor Related to Changes in the core Material Volume Fractions  

SciTech Connect

This document describes a deviation from the "Test Program and Procedures for the 710 Critical Experiment Reactor Loading and Rod Calibrations," TM-63-1-702, which was made in accordance with ITS Standard Practice J80-81 on March 13, 1963. The deviation did not involve a significant change in the safety of the operation.

Sims, F.L.

1963-03-13T23:59:59.000Z

476

Drilling motor deviation tool  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An extension for a down hole drilling motor is described, which adapts the motor for selective configuration for straight hole drilling or directional drilling, selectively. It consists of: an elongated generally tubular body, adapted at a first end to rigidly attach to the lower end of a down hole drilling motor housing, the body having an opening extending along the general centerline of the body; fluid channel means situated in the opening to conduct drilling fluid from the motor fluid output means to a downwardly continuing drill string element; output shaft means situated in the body and extending from a second end of the body, the output shaft adapted at the extended extreme for attachment to a downwardly continuing drill string element; selector valve means situated in the body, operatively associated with drilling fluid channels in the body, responsive to drilling fluid flow to produce a first output signal in response to fluid flow manipulations having a first characteristic and to produce a second output signal in response to fluid flow manipulations having a second characteristic; and driveshaft connector means in the opening, operatively associated with the output shaft of the motor and the output shaft means to connect the two for sympathetic rotation.

Falgout, T.E.; Schoeffler, W.N.

1989-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

477

Symmetry properties of the large-deviation function of the velocity of a self-propelled polar particle  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A geometrically polar granular rod confined in 2-D geometry, subjected to a sinusoidal vertical oscillation, undergoes noisy self-propulsion in a direction determined by its polarity. When surrounded by a medium of crystalline spherical beads, it displays substantial negative fluctuations in its velocity. We find that the large deviation function (LDF) for the normalized velocity is strongly non-Gaussian with a kink at zero velocity, and that the antisymmetric part of the LDF is linear, resembling the fluctuation relation known for entropy production, even when the velocity distribution is clearly non-Gaussian. We extract an analogue of the phase space contraction rate and find that it compares well with an independent estimate based on the persistence of forward and reverse velocities.

Nitin Kumar; Sriram Ramaswamy; A. K. Sood

2010-09-29T23:59:59.000Z

478

Gas storage materials, including hydrogen storage materials  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A material for the storage and release of gases comprises a plurality of hollow elements, each hollow element comprising a porous wall enclosing an interior cavity, the interior cavity including structures of a solid-state storage material. In particular examples, the storage material is a hydrogen storage material such as a solid state hydride. An improved method for forming such materials includes the solution diffusion of a storage material solution through a porous wall of a hollow element into an interior cavity.

Mohtadi, Rana F; Wicks, George G; Heung, Leung K; Nakamura, Kenji

2013-02-19T23:59:59.000Z

479

Intentionally Including - Engaging Minorities in Physics Careers |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Intentionally Including - Engaging Minorities in Physics Careers Intentionally Including - Engaging Minorities in Physics Careers Intentionally Including - Engaging Minorities in Physics Careers April 24, 2013 - 4:37pm Addthis Joining Director Dot Harris (second from left) were Marlene Kaplan, the Deputy Director of Education and director of EPP, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Claudia Rankins, a Program Officer with the National Science Foundation and Jim Stith, the past Vice-President of the American Institute of Physics Resources. Joining Director Dot Harris (second from left) were Marlene Kaplan, the Deputy Director of Education and director of EPP, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Claudia Rankins, a Program Officer with the National Science Foundation and Jim Stith, the past Vice-President of the

480

Transmission line including support means with barriers  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A gas insulated transmission line includes an elongated outer sheath, a plurality of inner conductors disposed within and extending along the outer sheath, and an insulating gas which electrically insulates the inner conductors from the outer sheath. A support insulator insulatably supports the inner conductors within the outer sheath, with the support insulator comprising a main body portion including a plurality of legs extending to the outer sheath, and barrier portions which extend between the legs. The barrier portions have openings therein adjacent the main body portion through which the inner conductors extend.

Cookson, Alan H. (Pittsburgh, PA)

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "includes short-term deviations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

DISASTER POLICY Including Extreme Emergent Situations (EES)  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

on the ACGME website with information relating to the ACGME response to the disaster. 3. The University-specific Program Requirements. Defined Responsibilities Following the Declaration of a Disaster or Extreme EmergentPage 123 DISASTER POLICY Including Extreme Emergent Situations (EES) The University of Connecticut

Oliver, Douglas L.

482

International LNG trade : the emergence of a short-term market; International liquefied natural gas trade : the emergence of a short-term market.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Natural gas is estimated to be the fastest growing component of world primary energy consumption. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply chain is a way of… (more)

Athanasopoulos, Panagiotis G

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

483

Buildings Included on EMS Reports"  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Office of Legacy Management Office of Legacy Management Buildings Included on EMS Reports" "Site","Property Name","Property ID","GSF","Incl. in Water Baseline (CY2007)","Water Baseline (sq. ft.)","Water CY2008 (sq. ft.)","Water CY2009 (sq. ft.)","Water Notes","Incl. in Energy Baseline (CY2003)","Energy Baseline (sq. ft.)","CY2008 Energy (sq. ft.)","CY2009 Energy (sq. ft.)","Energy Notes","Included as Existing Building","CY2008 Existing Building (sq. ft.)","Reason for Building Exclusion" "Column Totals",,"Totals",115139,,10579,10579,22512,,,3183365,26374,115374,,,99476 "Durango, CO, Disposal/Processing Site","STORAGE SHED","DUD-BLDG-STORSHED",100,"no",,,,,"no",,,,"OSF","no",,"Less than 5,000 GSF"

484

Power generation method including membrane separation  

SciTech Connect

A method for generating electric power, such as at, or close to, natural gas fields. The method includes conditioning natural gas containing C.sub.3+ hydrocarbons and/or acid gas by means of a membrane separation step. This step creates a leaner, sweeter, drier gas, which is then used as combustion fuel to run a turbine, which is in turn used for power generation.

Lokhandwala, Kaaeid A. (Union City, CA)

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

Electric power monthly, September 1990. [Glossary included  

SciTech Connect

The purpose of this report is to provide energy decision makers with accurate and timely information that may be used in forming various perspectives on electric issues. The power plants considered include coal, petroleum, natural gas, hydroelectric, and nuclear power plants. Data are presented for power generation, fuel consumption, fuel receipts and cost, sales of electricity, and unusual occurrences at power plants. Data are compared at the national, Census division, and state levels. 4 figs., 52 tabs. (CK)

1990-12-17T23:59:59.000Z

486

Nuclear reactor shield including magnesium oxide  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

An improvement in nuclear reactor shielding of a type used in reactor applications involving significant amounts of fast neutron flux, the reactor shielding including means providing structural support, neutron moderator material, neutron absorber material and other components as described below, wherein at least a portion of the neutron moderator material is magnesium in the form of magnesium oxide either alone or in combination with other moderator materials such as graphite and iron.

Rouse, Carl A. (Del Mar, CA); Simnad, Massoud T. (La Jolla, CA)

1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

487

Thermovoltaic semiconductor device including a plasma filter  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A thermovoltaic energy conversion device and related method for converting thermal energy into an electrical potential. An interference filter is provided on a semiconductor thermovoltaic cell to pre-filter black body radiation. The semiconductor thermovoltaic cell includes a P/N junction supported on a substrate which converts incident thermal energy below the semiconductor junction band gap into electrical potential. The semiconductor substrate is doped to provide a plasma filter which reflects back energy having a wavelength which is above the band gap and which is ineffectively filtered by the interference filter, through the P/N junction to the source of radiation thereby avoiding parasitic absorption of the unusable portion of the thermal radiation energy.

Baldasaro, Paul F. (Clifton Park, NY)

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

488

Planning and drilling geothermal energy extraction hole EE-2: a precisely oriented and deviated hole in hot granitic rock  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

During the preceding work (Phase I) of the Hot Dry Rock (HDR) Geothermal Energy Project at Fenton Hill, two holes were drilled to a depth of nearly 3048 m (10,000 ft) and connected by a vertical hydraulic fracture. In this phase, water was pumped through the underground reservoir for approximately 417 days, producing an energy equivalent of 3 to 5 MW(t). Energy Extraction Hole No. 2 (EE-2) is the first of two deep holes that will be used in the Engineering-Resource Development System (Phase II) of the ongoing HDR Project of the Los Alamos National Laboratory. This phase of the work consists of drilling two parallel boreholes, inclined in their lower, open-hole sections at 35/sup 0/ to the vertical and separated by a vertical distance of 366 m (1200 ft) between the inclined parts of the drill holes. The holes will be connected by a series of vertical, hydraulically produced fractures in the Precambrian granitic rock complex. EE-2 was drilled to a depth of 4660 m (15,289 ft), where the bottom-hole temperature is approximately 320/sup 0/C (608/sup 0/F). Directional drilling techniques were used to control the azimuth and deviation of the hole. Upgrading of the temperature capability of existing hardware, and development of new equipment was necessary to complete the drilling of the hole in the extremely hot, hard, and abrasive granitic formation. The drilling history and the problems with bits, directional tools, tubular goods, cementing, and logging are described. A discussion of the problems and recommendations for overcoming them are also presented.

Helmick, C.; Koczan, S.; Pettitt, R.

1982-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

489

Models of Procyon A including seismic constraints  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Detailed models of Procyon A based on new asteroseismic measurements by Eggenberger et al (2004) have been computed using the Geneva evolution code including shellular rotation and atomic diffusion. By combining all non-asteroseismic observables now available for Procyon A with these seismological data, we find that the observed mean large spacing of 55.5 +- 0.5 uHz favours a mass of 1.497 M_sol for Procyon A. We also determine the following global parameters of Procyon A: an age of t=1.72 +- 0.30 Gyr, an initial helium mass fraction Y_i=0.290 +- 0.010, a nearly solar initial metallicity (Z/X)_i=0.0234 +- 0.0015 and a mixing-length parameter alpha=1.75 +- 0.40. Moreover, we show that the effects of rotation on the inner structure of the star may be revealed by asteroseismic observations if frequencies can be determined with a high precision. Existing seismological data of Procyon A are unfortunately not accurate enough to really test these differences in the input physics of our models.

P. Eggenberger; F. Carrier; F. Bouchy

2005-01-14T23:59:59.000Z

490

Water is used for many purposes, includ-ing growing crops, producing copper,  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

WATER USES Water is used for many purposes, includ- ing growing crops, producing copper, generating electricity, watering lawns, keeping clean, drinking and recreation. Bal- ancing the water budget comes down of the water budget. Reducing demand involves re- ducing how much water each person uses, lim- iting the number

491

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills June 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other federal agencies. June 2013 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills 1

492

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Highlights Highlights After falling by more than 40 cents per gallon from the beginning of September through mid-November, weekly U.S. average regular gasoline retail prices increased by 8 cents per gallon to reach $3.27 per gallon on December 2, 2013, due in part to unplanned refinery maintenance and higher crude oil prices. The annual average regular gasoline retail price, which was $3.63 per gallon in 2012, is expected to average $3.50 per gallon in 2013 and $3.43 per gallon in 2014. The North Sea Brent crude oil spot price averaged near $110 per barrel for the fifth consecutive month in November. EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to average $108 per barrel in December and decline gradually to $104 per barrel in 2014. Projected West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices average $95 per barrel during 2014.

493

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Natural Gas Cold weather in December had significant effects on demand, supply, and prices across the country. Cold weather led to a net withdrawal of 285 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending Friday, December 13. This was the largest storage withdrawal since recordkeeping began in 1994. Another larger-than-normal storage withdrawal of 177 Bcf occurred the following week. Widespread freeze-offs occurred in December and disrupted production for several days in the Piceance Basin in Utah and Wyoming, the Uinta Basin in Utah, the San Joaquin Basin in California, and the Williston Basin in North Dakota. Imports from Canada helped mitigate the loss of supply. During the month, prices rose across most of the country, and the Henry Hub price averaged about $0.60/MMBtu higher than the previous month's average.

494

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

All Tables All Tables Tables Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter PDF Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary PDF Table 2. U.S. Energy Prices PDF Table 3a. International Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production, Consumption, and Inventories PDF Table 3b. Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply PDF Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Supply PDF Table 3d. World Liquid Fuels Consumption PDF Table 4a. U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories PDF Table 4b. U.S. Petroleum Refinery Balance PDF Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories PDF Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories PDF Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices PDF Table 6. U.S. Coal Supply, Consumption, and Inventories PDF

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Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Projected Winter Fuel Expenditures by Fuel and Region Projected Winter Fuel Expenditures by Fuel and Region The average household winter heating fuel expenditures discussed in this STEO provide a broad guide to changes compared with last winter. However, fuel expenditures for individual households are highly dependent on local weather conditions, market size, the size and energy efficiency of individual homes and their heating equipment, and thermostat settings (see Winter Fuels Outlook table). Forecast temperatures are close to last winter nationally, with the Northeast about 3% colder and the West 3% warmer. Natural Gas About one-half of U.S. households use natural gas as their primary heating fuel. EIA expects households heating with natural gas to spend an average of $80 (13%) more this winter than last winter. The increase in natural gas

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Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts Overview Tancred Lidderdale 202-586-7321 tancred.lidderdale@eia.gov World Oil Prices/International Petroleum Erik Kreil 202-586-6573 erik.kreil@eia.gov Energy Prices Sean Hill 202-586-4247 sean.hill@eia.gov Futures Markets and Energy Price Uncertainty James Preciado 202-586-8769 james.preciado@eia.gov U.S. Crude Oil Production John Staub 202-586-6344 john.staub@eia.gov U.S. Petroleum Demand Michael Morris 202-586-1199 michael.morris@eia.gov U.S. Refinery Supply Arup Mallik 202-586-7713 arup.mallik@eia.gov U.S. Ethanol Tony Radich 202-586-0504 anthony.radich@eia.gov U.S. Biodiesel Sean Hill 202-586-4247 sean.hill@eia.gov U.S. Natural Gas Katherine Teller 202-586-6201 katherine.teller@eia.gov U.S. Coal Supply and Demand Elias Johnson 202-586-7277 elias.johnson@eia.gov U.S. Coal Prices

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Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Electricity So far this year (through October 2013), the electricity industry has added 10.0 gigawatts (GW) of new generating capacity. Much of this new capacity (6.2 GW) is fueled by natural gas. Renewable energy sources are used in 2.3 GW of the new capacity while two new coal plants (1.5 GW) have also started producing electricity this year. However, these new sources for power generation have been more than offset by 11.1 GW of retired capacity. Coal-fired and nuclear plants comprise the largest proportion of year-to-date retired capacity (3.8 GW and 3.6 GW, respectively). A total of 2.3 GW of natural-gas-fired capacity has been retired so far this year. U.S. Electricity Consumption Electricity sales during 2013 have experienced little, if any, growth.

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Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

9c : U.S. Regional Weather Data 9c : U.S. Regional Weather Data Either scripts and active content are not permitted to run or Adobe Flash Player version ${version_major}.${version_minor}.${version_revision} or greater is not installed. Get Adobe Flash Player - = no data available Notes: Regional degree days for each period are calculated by EIA as contemporaneous period population-weighted averages of state degree day data published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). See STEO Supplement: Change in Regional and U.S. Degree-Day Calculations for more information. The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. See "Census division" in EIA's Energy Glossary for a list of states in each region.

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Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

9b : U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data 9b : U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data Either scripts and active content are not permitted to run or Adobe Flash Player version ${version_major}.${version_minor}.${version_revision} or greater is not installed. Get Adobe Flash Player - = no data available Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with estimates and forecasts in italics. Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. See "Census division" in EIA's Energy Glossary for a list of states in each region. Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy

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Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Overview EIA expects production from countries outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to grow year-over-year by a record high of 1.9 million bbl/d in 2014. OPEC crude oil production is forecast to decline by 0.5 million bbl/d in 2014, mostly as a result of some OPEC producers cutting back production to accommodate non-OPEC supply growth. The projected decline in production by some OPEC producers increases in surplus crude oil production capacity, which grows from an average of 2.2 million bbl/d in 2013 to 2.7 million bbl/d in 2014. The call on OPEC crude oil and global stocks (world consumption less non-OPEC production and OPEC non-crude oil production) falls from an average 30.4 million bbl/d in 2013