National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for includes forecast maps

  1. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  2. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research supports industry, government, and academia by providing renewable energy resource measurements, models, maps, and support services. These resources are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research: Capabilities Facilities Research staff Data and resources. Resource assessment and forecasting research is primarily performed at

  3. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  4. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,153 3,143 -0.3% Price (centskWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.96 ...

  5. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  6. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  7. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  8. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  9. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  10. Using Wikipedia to forecast disease

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. December 22, 2014 Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505) 667-0471 Email "A global disease-forecasting system will improve

  11. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  12. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  13. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu

  14. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  15. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  16. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  17. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  18. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  19. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  20. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies ...

  1. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  2. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  3. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  4. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  5. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement ...

  6. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  7. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  8. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  9. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  10. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  11. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. File Acquisition-Forecast-2016-05-06.xlsx More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Small Business Program Manager Directory

  12. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  13. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report PDF icon Wind Forecast Improvement Project ...

  14. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. ... means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals. ...

  15. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  16. NREL: Dynamic Maps, GIS Data, and Analysis Tools - Maps

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bookmark and Share Maps NREL's Geospatial Data Science Team develops maps for various renewable resources and for specific projects. As a benefit to the public, a majority of static maps are offered and Google Map (KML/KMZ) files on a tool called MapSearch. Biomass Maps Maps showing the biomass resources available in the United States by county. Feedstock categories include crop residues; forest residues; primary and secondary mill residues; urban wood waste; and methane emissions from manure

  17. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  18. Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennock, K.

    2012-10-01

    AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

  19. Network Maps

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Network Maps Engineering Services The Network Network Maps Network Traffic Volume Historical Network Maps Network Facts & Stats Connected Sites Peering Connections ESnet...

  20. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  1. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  2. Solar Mapping Resources

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Choosing solar energy is a big investment. In order to help consumers quantify the potential benefits, national laboratories and private companies have developed a number of tools to forecast their solar futures. Satellite maps, irradiance data, and real-time bids from installers have been combined to assist customers in understanding the potential costs and benefits of solar with just the click of a button. The examples below help consumers start the process of choosing solar by demonstrating the solar potential of their homes or businesses.

  3. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  4. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  5. Research Portfolio Map

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Research Portfolio Map Welcome to the Strategic Center for Coal Project Portfolio Web Map assembled by NETL. The web map includes projects across all Coal & Power Systems technologies including Advanced Energy Systems, Carbon Capture, Carbon Storage, Cross-Cutting Research, Futuregen 2.0, Industrial Carbon Capture and Storage (ICCS), Clean Coal Power Initiative (CCPI), Geologic Sequestration Training and Research (GSTR), Geologic Sequestration Site Characterization (GSSC), and ICCS

  6. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  7. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  8. Location Map

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Lane, Michael

    Map file package containing shaded relief base with Hot Pot project area, major roads, railroads, and rivers. The inset map shows regional Paleozoic structural elements.

  9. Location Map

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Lane, Michael

    2013-06-27

    Map file package containing shaded relief base with Hot Pot project area, major roads, railroads, and rivers. The inset map shows regional Paleozoic structural elements.

  10. Solar Forecast Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    NOAA also will provide advanced satellite products. INNOVATIONS NOAA is providing numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling with new information that will help solar forecasts. ...

  11. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Management Tools and Best Practices Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices Development ...

  12. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  13. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  14. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  15. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  16. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits ... Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits ...

  17. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio ...

  18. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar ...

  19. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  20. NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Elizabeth Torres Clayton Barrows Dave Bielen Aaron Bloom Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Wesley Cole Paul Denholm Nicholas DiOrio Aron Dobos Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Bethany Frew Pieter Gagnon Elaine Hale

  1. Layer Information for Interactive State Maps

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    GGulf of Mexico Fact Sheet PMajor Oil and Gas Plays SState Energy Profile Maps UU.S. ... including flood hazard zones, Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) boundaries, Coastal ...

  2. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  3. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  4. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  5. Pump apparatus including deconsolidator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Sonwane, Chandrashekhar; Saunders, Timothy; Fitzsimmons, Mark Andrew

    2014-10-07

    A pump apparatus includes a particulate pump that defines a passage that extends from an inlet to an outlet. A duct is in flow communication with the outlet. The duct includes a deconsolidator configured to fragment particle agglomerates received from the passage.

  6. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  7. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  8. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  9. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  10. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  11. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  12. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Research Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Research Staff NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research staff provides expertise in renewable energy measurement and instrumentation through NREL's Power Systems Engineering Center. Photo not available Linda Crow - Administrative Associate B.S. Environmental Studies, The Evergreen State College Linda currently works for the Resource Assessment and Forecasting group as their administrative support. She has worked with scientists at the Office of Science at the Air Force Academy and at

  13. Site Map

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Access to the ALS Gate Access Guest House Lab Shuttles Maps and Directions Parking Safety Experiment Safety Safety for Staff In Case of Emergency Resources Acronyms Multimedia ...

  14. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  15. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  16. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  17. Rapid mapping tool : an ArcMap extension /

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Linger, S. P.; Rich, P. M.; Walther, D.; Witkowski, M. S.; Jones, M. A.; Khalsa, H. S.

    2002-01-01

    Cartographic production laboratories produce large volumes of maps for diverse customers. Turnaround time and consistency are key concerns. The Rapid Mapping Tool is an ArcMap based tool that enables rapid creation of maps to meet customer needs. This tool was constructed using VB/VBA, ArcObjects, and ArcGIS templates. The core capability of ArcMap is extended for custom map production by storing specifications associated with a map or template in a companion XML document. These specifications include settings and preferences used to create custom maps. The tool was developed as a component of an enterprise GIS, which enables spatial data management and delivery using ArcSDE, ArcIMS, Oracle, and a web-based request tracking system.

  18. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  19. Site Map

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Home » Site Map Site Map Home About Overview NERSC Mission Contact us Staff Center Leadership Sudip Dosanjh Sudip Dosanjh: Select Publications Jeff Broughton Katie Antypas Richard Gerber Publications John Shalf Center Administration James Craw Norma Early Jeff Grounds Betsy MacGowan Zaida McCunney Kerri Peyovich Lynn Rippe David Tooker Center Communications Jon Bashor Kathy Kincade Linda Vu Margie Wylie Advanced Technologies Nicholas Wright Brian Austin Research Projects Christopher Daley Glenn

  20. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  1. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  2. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  3. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  4. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  5. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  6. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  7. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wavelet-ARIMA (Conference) | SciTech Connect Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of

  8. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Preprint Jie Zhang 1 , Bri-Mathias Hodge 1 , Siyuan Lu 2 , Hendrik F. Hamann 2 , Brad Lehman 3 , Joseph Simmons 4 , Edwin Campos 5 , and Venkat Banunarayanan 6 1 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2 IBM TJ Watson Research Center 3 Northeastern University 4 University of Arizona 5 Argonne National Laboratory 6 U.S. Department of Energy Presented at the IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting Denver,

  9. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  10. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  11. Wind Career Map | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Career Map Wind Career Map This wind career map explores an expanding universe of wind energy occupations, describing diverse jobs across the industry, charting possible progression between them, and identifying the high-quality training necessary to do them well. View the text version here. While the Wind Career Map endeavors to cover many of the careers in wind energy, there are many occupations in this industry that are not included in this map, but are integral to the success of the

  12. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  13. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  14. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  15. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  16. Site Map

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Site Map Expand All | Collapse All Item Sir John Pople, Gaussian Code, and Complex Chemical Reactions Item DOE Research and Development Accomplishments Click to expand or collapse folder Folder DOE Research and Development Accomplishments About Item The Manhattan Project Click to expand or collapse folder Folder DOE Research and Development Accomplishments Alfred Nobel Laureates Associated with the DOE and Predecessors Item Abdus Salam and his International Influences Item Ahmed Zewail and

  17. Maps - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Maps Overview & General Energy Disruptions Interactive maps with energy infrastructure and real-time storm tracking Historical Disruption reports Gulf of Mexico Fact Sheet Flood Vulnerability Assessment Map - Interactive map that includes flood hazard information from FEMA as well as energy infrastructure layers. Country Analysis Briefs U.S. Census Region Map U.S. Climate Zones for 2003 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) U.S. Federal Region Map State Energy Profile Maps |

  18. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models includes the characterization of patient-specific response with implications for treatment management and research study design.

  19. Site Map | DOE Patents

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    DOepatents Site Map Site Map Home Basic Search Advanced Search DOEPatents FAQ About DOEpatents Site Map DOEpatents Feedback Website Policies/Important Links

  20. Site Map | Data Explorer

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Site Map Site Map Home Basic Search Advanced Search Data Explorer FAQ About Data Explorer Site Map Data Explorer Feedback Website Policies/Important Links

  1. Berkeley Lab Site Map

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    About Berkeley Lab | Laboratory Site Map Laboratory Organization Chart DivisionalDepartmental Organization Charts Laboratory Map Interactive Laboratory Map History of the...

  2. Manhattan Project: Maps

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Scroll down to view thumbnails of each map. Leslie Groves looks at a map of Japan. Manhattan Project: General Manhattan Project Facilities Places map "Signature Facilities of the ...

  3. Site Map | Geothermal

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Site Map Site Map Home Basic Search Advanced Search Geothermal FAQ About Geothermal Site Map Geothermal Feedback Website PoliciesImportant Links

  4. Mapping the Nanoscale Landscape

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Mapping the Nanoscale Landscape Mapping the Nanoscale Landscape Print Wednesday, 27 September 2006 00:00 For the first time, researchers have successfully mapped the chemical...

  5. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  6. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would

  7. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts. PDF icon Report of the External Peer Review Panel More Documents & Publications Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram Survey of Emissions Models for Distributed Combined Heat and Power

  8. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modelling Approach (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the

  9. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (BNL) Field Campaign Report (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Technical Report: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) [http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/osc2013rwpcf]

  10. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability | Department of Energy Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability This document is the notice of data availability for Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types. PDF icon

  11. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  12. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, ...

  13. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    These projects aim to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting that could increase penetration of solar power by enabling more certainty in power prediction from solar power ...

  14. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates ...

  15. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  16. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  17. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  18. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  19. Site Monitoring Area Maps

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    DOepatents Site Map Site Map Home Basic Search Advanced Search DOEPatents FAQ About DOEpatents Site Map DOEpatents Feedback Website Policies/Important Links

    Site Map Site Map Home Basic Search Advanced Search Data Explorer FAQ About Data Explorer Site Map Data Explorer Feedback Website Policies/Important Links

    Site Map Site Map Home Audio Search Fielded Search About FAQ Site Map Contact Us Website Policies/Important Links

    Maps Individual Permit: Site Monitoring Area Maps Each

  20. PPPL Area Map | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    PPPL Area Map View Larger Map

  1. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  2. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  3. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  4. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations | Department of Energy The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement

  5. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  6. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  7. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  8. RAPID MAPPING TOOL: AN ARCMAP EXTENSION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    STEVE P. LINGER; PAUL M. RICH; DOUG WALTHER; MARC S. WITKOWSKI; MARCIA A. JONES; HARI S. KHALSA

    2002-06-18

    Cartographic production laboratories produce large volumes of maps for diverse customers. Turnaround time and consistency are key concerns. The Rapid Mapping Tool is an ArcMap based tool that enables rapid creation of maps to meet customer needs. This tool was constructed using VB/VBA, ArcObjects, and ArcGIS templates. The core capability of ArcMap is extended for custom map production by storing specifications associated with a map or template in a companion XML document. These specifications include settings and preferences used to create custom maps. The tool was developed as a component of an enterprise GIS, which enables spatial data management and delivery using ArcSDE, ArcIMS, Oracle, and a web-based request tracking system.

  9. Updates to the EIA Eagle Ford Play Maps

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Updates to the EIA Eagle Ford Play Maps December 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Updates to the Eagle Ford Shale Play Maps i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of

  10. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  11. Site Map | ScienceCinema

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Site Map Site Map Home Audio Search Fielded Search About FAQ Site Map Contact Us Website Policies/Important Links

  12. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  13. Site Map

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Site Information Kansas City National Security Campus (NSC), located in Kansas City, Mo., is the principal nonnuclear production site within the nuclear weapons complex, responsible for manufacturing and procuring nonnuclear components for nuclear weapons, including electronic, mechanical, and engineered material components. It supports national laboratories, universities, and U.S. industry. Work for other federal agencies is also conducted at NSC in a variety of national security programs.

  14. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  15. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  16. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  17. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  18. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  19. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    love to hear from you Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR...

  20. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  1. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average 2.21 per gallon this summer. While that's 17 ...

  2. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  3. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    1) To provide profiles of the horizontal wind to be used to test and validate short-term cloud advection forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical ...

  4. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  5. Forecasting the oil-gasoline price relationship: should we care...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    (2007, EE) obtain similar results on a panel of 15 OECD countries, with annual data ... Results Point forecasts of the N.Y. gasoline price 26 Panel (a): daily data Model MSFE ...

  6. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration in Idaho and Oregon Page 1 Under the ... (RIT) that enables grid operators to use wind energy more cost-effectively to serve ...

  7. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Chesapeake Bay (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters

  8. Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations:

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Frequentist and Bayesian analyses (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological

  9. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and

  10. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Laboratory (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory Citation Details In-Document Search Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, therefore, the amount and stability of the energy output from the system, clouds represent the greatest source of short-term (i.e., scale of minutes to

  11. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  12. Career Map: Environmental Scientist

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Program's Career Map provides job description information for Environmental Scientist positions.

  13. Career Map: Instrumentation Coordinator

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Program's Career Map provides job description information for Instrumentation Coordinator positions.

  14. Career Map: Mechanical Engineer

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Program's Career Map provides job description information for Mechanical Engineer positions.

  15. Career Map: Aerospace Engineer

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Program's Career Map provides job description information for Aerospace Engineer positions.

  16. Career Map: Electrical Engineer

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Program's Career Map provides job description information for Electrical Engineer positions.

  17. Career Map: Industrial Engineer

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Program's Career Map provides job description information for Industrial Engineer positions.

  18. Career Map: Resource Scientist

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Program's Career Map provides job description information for Resource Scientist positions.

  19. Career Map: Construction Worker

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Program's Career Map provides job description information for Construction Worker positions.

  20. Career Map: Meteorological Technician

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Program's Career Map provides job description information for Meteorological Technician positions.

  1. Career Map: Transportation Worker

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Program's Career Map provides job description information for Transportation Worker positions.

  2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NOAA Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007 Forecasting Challenge While weather experiments in the heart of Tornado Alley typically focus on severe weather, the CLASIC and CHAPS programs will have different emphases. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Norman, Okla. will provide weather forecasting support to these two Department of Energy experiments based in the state. Forecasting support for meteorological research field programs usually

  3. Defect mapping system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Sopori, Bhushan L.

    1995-01-01

    Apparatus for detecting and mapping defects in the surfaces of polycrystalline materials in a manner that distinguishes dislocation pits from grain boundaries includes a laser for illuminating a wide spot on the surface of the material, a light integrating sphere with apertures for capturing light scattered by etched dislocation pits in an intermediate range away from specular reflection while allowing light scattered by etched grain boundaries in a near range from specular reflection to pass through, and optical detection devices for detecting and measuring intensities of the respective intermediate scattered light and near specular scattered light. A center blocking aperture or filter can be used to screen out specular reflected light, which would be reflected by nondefect portions of the polycrystalline material surface. An X-Y translation stage for mounting the polycrystalline material and signal processing and computer equipment accommodate rastor mapping, recording, and displaying of respective dislocation and grain boundary defect densities. A special etch procedure is included, which prepares the polycrystalline material surface to produce distinguishable intermediate and near specular light scattering in patterns that have statistical relevance to the dislocation and grain boundary defect densities.

  4. Defect mapping system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Sopori, B.L.

    1995-04-11

    Apparatus for detecting and mapping defects in the surfaces of polycrystalline materials in a manner that distinguishes dislocation pits from grain boundaries includes a laser for illuminating a wide spot on the surface of the material, a light integrating sphere with apertures for capturing light scattered by etched dislocation pits in an intermediate range away from specular reflection while allowing light scattered by etched grain boundaries in a near range from specular reflection to pass through, and optical detection devices for detecting and measuring intensities of the respective intermediate scattered light and near specular scattered light. A center blocking aperture or filter can be used to screen out specular reflected light, which would be reflected by nondefect portions of the polycrystalline material surface. An X-Y translation stage for mounting the polycrystalline material and signal processing and computer equipment accommodate rastor mapping, recording, and displaying of respective dislocation and grain boundary defect densities. A special etch procedure is included, which prepares the polycrystalline material surface to produce distinguishable intermediate and near specular light scattering in patterns that have statistical relevance to the dislocation and grain boundary defect densities. 20 figures.

  5. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  6. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  7. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  8. Addressing grid challenges and exploring opportunities, including DR

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simms, Scott

    2011-10-25

    Wind is valuable to PNW power generation mix. BPA supports development of wind generation forecasting, utility operational protocols and business practices, Demand Response, and storage applications.

  9. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  10. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  11. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  12. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  13. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  14. Density Equalizing Map Projections

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1995-07-01

    A geographic map is mathematically transformed so that the subareas of the map are proportional to a given quantity such as population. In other words, population density is equalized over the entire map. The transformed map can be used as a display tool, or it can be statistically analyzed. For example, cases of disease plotted on the transformed map should be uniformly distributed at random, if disease rates are everywhere equal. Geographic clusters of diseasemore » can be readily identified, and their statistical significance determined, on a density equalized map.« less

  15. Speech processing using maximum likelihood continuity mapping

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hogden, John E.

    2000-01-01

    Speech processing is obtained that, given a probabilistic mapping between static speech sounds and pseudo-articulator positions, allows sequences of speech sounds to be mapped to smooth sequences of pseudo-articulator positions. In addition, a method for learning a probabilistic mapping between static speech sounds and pseudo-articulator position is described. The method for learning the mapping between static speech sounds and pseudo-articulator position uses a set of training data composed only of speech sounds. The said speech processing can be applied to various speech analysis tasks, including speech recognition, speaker recognition, speech coding, speech synthesis, and voice mimicry.

  16. campus-visitor-map

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    MC-212 Pollard Aud. MC- 210 MC- 120 MC-130 MC-100 Main Campus Map Building RoomOffice Contact Name + Number Visitor Map You are here. Emergency Assembly Point Entrance Buildings...

  17. ARM - Instrument - maps

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    hear from you Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Instrument : Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS) Note: maps is currently inactive andor...

  18. National Hydropower Map

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    High-resolution map produced by Oak Ridge National Laboratory showing hydropower resources throughout the United States.

  19. SERC Grants Interactive Map

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    View SERC Grants in a larger map. To report corrections, please email SustainableEnergyWAP@ee.doe.gov.

  20. WIPP Projects Interative Map

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    View WIPP Projects in a larger map. To report corrections, please email WeatherizationInnovation@ee.doe.gov.

  1. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  2. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  3. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  4. Maps | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    News & Blog » Maps Maps Map Title Topics - Any - Tax Credits, Rebates, Savings Energy Efficiency -Homes --Heating & Cooling ---Heating ---Cooling ---Heat Pumps --Water Heating ---Swimming Pool Heaters --Home Weatherization ---Home Energy Audits ---Insulation ---Sealing Your Home ---Ventilation --Saving Electricity ---Lighting ---Appliances & Electronics ---Buying & Making Electricity --Design & Remodeling ---Windows, Doors, & Skylights --Landscaping -Vehicles

  5. Quantitative DNA fiber mapping

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gray, Joe W.; Weier, Heinz-Ulrich G.

    1998-01-01

    The present invention relates generally to the DNA mapping and sequencing technologies. In particular, the present invention provides enhanced methods and compositions for the physical mapping and positional cloning of genomic DNA. The present invention also provides a useful analytical technique to directly map cloned DNA sequences onto individual stretched DNA molecules.

  6. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  7. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  8. CCRS Landcover Maps From Satellite Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Trishchenko, Alexander

    2008-01-15

    The Canadian Centre for Remote Sensing (CCRS) presents several landcover maps over the SGP CART site area (32-40N, 92-102W) derived from satellite data including AVHRR, MODIS, SPOT vegetation data, and Landsat satellite TM imagery.

  9. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  10. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  11. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  12. Aeromagnetic map | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    map Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Map: Aeromagnetic mapInfo GraphicMapChart Cartographer Zietz and Kirby Published U.S. Geological Survey,...

  13. ARM - TWP-ICE Maps

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Fact Sheet (pdf, 211K) Press Releases TWP-ICE Images ARM flickr site <"" li"" height"14" width"16"> TWP-ICE Maps map1 map2 Download TWP-ICEDarwin annotated maps (pdf, 246K)....

  14. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  15. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  16. Maps of Selected State Subdivisions

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Proved Reserves Summary Maps of Selected State Subdivisions Map 1: Alaska Map 2: California Map 3: Louisiana Map 4: New Mexico Map 5: Texas Map 6: Western Planning Area, Gulf of Mexico Map 7: Central Planning Area, Gulf of Mexico Map 8: Eastern Planning Area, Gulf of Mexico Map 1: Alaska AK 50 - North Onshore and Offshore AK 10 - South Onshore AK 05 - South State Offshore AK 00 - South Federal Offshore Map 2: California CA 50 - Coastal Region

  17. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the flying brick technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  18. Milford, Utah FORGE Map | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Milford, Utah FORGE Map More Documents & Publications Milford, Utah FORGE Map Milford, Utah FORGE Logo Milford, Utah FORGE Map Newberry FORGE Map Milford, Utah FORGE Map Fallon ...

  19. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during

  20. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting UCAR logo2.jpg The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research. APPROACH UCAR value chain.png The team will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through

  1. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Types | Department of Energy Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types More Documents & Publications Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability CX-100584 Categorical Exclusion Determination ISSUANCE

  2. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  3. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  4. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  5. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  6. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  7. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  8. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  9. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  10. Mapping the Nanoscale Landscape

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Mapping the Nanoscale Landscape Mapping the Nanoscale Landscape Print Wednesday, 27 September 2006 00:00 For the first time, researchers have successfully mapped the chemical structure of conjugated polymer blend films with a spatial resolution of better than 50 nm using scanning transmission x-ray microscopy (STXM). This is not just another application of STXM. It is a breakthrough experiment on several levels. Correlating local composition to electronic/optical device characteristics will pave

  11. Water telescope's first sky map shows flickering black holes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Water telescope's first sky map shows flickering black holes Water telescope's first sky map shows flickering black holes The High Altitude Water Cherenkov observatory has released its first map of the sky, including the first measurements of how often black holes flicker on and off. It has also caught pulsars, supernova remnants, and other bizarre cosmic beasts. April 24, 2016 Water telescope's first sky map shows flickering black holes Three new sources of gamma rays spotted by HAWC. Credit:

  12. Wind Career Map Text Version | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Career Map Text Version Wind Career Map Text Version Below is the text version for the Wind Career Map. The application includes five fields of work-Project Development; Component Manufacturing; Construction; Operations; and Education, Training, and Research. Each section is divided into entry-level, mid-level, and advanced-level jobs, and lists advancement opportunities for each career. All jobs link to the Wind Energy Career Map: Resource List and the Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ). You can

  13. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  14. SGP Overview Map

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Overview Map SGP Related Links Virtual Tour Facilities and Instruments Central Facility Boundary Facility Extended Facility Intermediate Facility Radiometric Calibration Facility...

  15. ARM - Datastreams - maps60

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    1994.10.15 Measurement Categories Atmospheric State Originating Instrument Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS) Measurements The measurements below provided by this...

  16. Allinea MAP at NERSC

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Graphical User Interface can be greatly improved if used in conjunction with the free NX software. Introduction Allinea MAP is a parallel profiler with simple Graphical User...

  17. HVAC Performance Maps

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... models for building energy simulation tools (mathematical framework - what are the right ... integrated HPWHs were performance mapped in NREL's Advanced HVAC Systems Laboratory. ...

  18. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  19. Field Mapping At Salt Wells Area (Coolbaugh, Et Al., 2004) |...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Details regarding the complete hardware specifications of the device are included in the body of the article. A custom geologic mapping software applet developed by Gary Edmondo...

  20. NREL: Dynamic Maps, GIS Data, and Analysis Tools - Geographic...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Geographic Information System Data Background NREL's GIS Team develops technology-specific GIS data maps for a variety of areas, including biomass, geothermal, solar, wind, and...

  1. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Facilities

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Printable Version Facilities Photo of two researchers standing on a platform near a solar tracker at the Solar Radiation Research Laboratory. The Solar Radiation Research Laboratory gathers solar radiation and meteorological data on South Table Mountain. NREL's Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) has been collecting continuous measurements of basic solar radiation components since 1981. Since then, it has expanded its expertise to include integrated metrology, optics, electronics, and

  2. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (stochastic) model with the weather forecast model (deterministic) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  3. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  4. Site Map - Pantex Plant

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Site Map Site Map Page Content Pantex.com Mission & Strategies Mission National Security Nuclear Explosive Operations Nuclear Material Operations HE Operations Strategies Advance HE Center of Excellence Exemplify a High Reliability Organization Health & Safety Safety Training Occupational Medicine Contractor Safety Environment Environmental Projects & Operations Regulatory Compliance Waste Operations Environmental Management System Environmental Document Library Public Meetings Doing

  5. Chizu Task Mapping Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-07-01

    Chizu is a tool for Mapping MPI processes or tasks to physical processors or nodes for optimizing communication performance. It takes the communication graph of a High Performance Computing (HPC) application and the interconnection topology of a supercomputer as input. It outputs a new MPI rand to processor mapping, which can be used when launching the HPC application.

  6. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction ! " #" $ % % & # % " " " ' % ' ( ) * + " % ( , - . / 0 / " 0 . * 0 . * . . " 0 References A short model description Sensitivity tests Results Tropospheric humidity # " humidity 1 % 2 % ' 3 " % + 1 % 2 % % 3 % Updraft entrainment ' + % " 3 % 4 # " + %' 5 6)( . % ' 1 % .7

  7. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data Center (RReDC) Provides information about biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind energy resources. Measurement and Instrumentation Data Center Provides irradiance and meteorological data from stations throughout the United States. Baseline Measurement System (BMS) Provides live solar radiation data from approximately 70

  8. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  9. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  10. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  11. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  12. NREL: Dynamic Maps, GIS Data, and Analysis Tools - Solar Maps

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    MapSearch Searching for maps has never been easier. A screen capture of the MapSearch Map view option Solar Maps Solar maps provide monthly average daily total solar resource information on grid cells. The insolation values represent the resource available to a flat plate collector, such as a photovoltaic panel, oriented due south at an angle from horizontal to equal to the latitude of the collector location. This is typical practice for PV system installation, although other orientations are

  13. NREL: MapSearch

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    to easily search our collection of maps created by the Geographic Information System (GIS) team. Please use the search box and the filters on the left of the screen to limit...

  14. Mapping the Nanoscale Landscape

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    composition maps (5 m x 5 m) of F8BT:TFB blend films (left and center). Comparative atomic-force microscopy (AFM) surface images (right) reveal micrometer-sized domains in...

  15. Dating the Vinland Map

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2013-07-17

    Scientists from Brookhaven National Laboratory, the University of Arizona, and the Smithsonian Institution used carbon-dating technology to determine the age of a controversial parchment that might be the first-ever map of North America.

  16. Fermilab Site Map

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    use this map The Village Fermilab Meson, Nuetrino and Proton Experiment Areas Wilson Hall, Ramsey Auditorium Site 38 (Support Area) and vicinity CDF, D0, TD, Tevatron Main Injector...

  17. PMCDP Curriculum Learning Map

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This interactive map provides an overview of the Department of Energy’s Project Management Career Development Program (PMCDP) as well as all pertinent details for each course within the program. ...

  18. Wind Career Map: Resource List

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The following resources were used in the development of the Wind Career Map, associated job profile information, or are potential resources for interested Wind Career Map viewers.

  19. X-ray fluorescence mapping

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    X-Ray Microscopy and Imaging: X-ray Fluorescence Mapping Of increasing scientific interest is the detection, quantification and mapping of elemental content of samples, often down...

  20. Arizona Map for Commercial Buildings

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Home > Households, Buildings & Industry > Background Information on CBECS > 1979-1999 CBECS climate zone map Corrections Corrections to 1979-1999 CBECS Climate Zone Map, February...

  1. Field Mapping | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Mapping Jump to: navigation, search GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGeothermal Home Exploration Technique: Field Mapping Details Activities (74) Areas (44) Regions (6) NEPA(0) Exploration...

  2. Historical Network Maps

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Network Maps Network Traffic Volume Historical Network Maps Network Facts & Stats Connected Sites Peering Connections ESnet Site Availabiliy OSCARS Fasterdata IPv6 Network Network Performance Tools The ESnet Engineering Team Network R&D Software-Defined Networking (SDN) Experimental Network Testbeds Performance (perfSONAR) Software & Tools Development Data for Researchers Partnerships Publications Workshops Science Engagement Move your data Programs & Workshops Science

  3. Mapping the Nanoscale Landscape

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Mapping the Nanoscale Landscape Print For the first time, researchers have successfully mapped the chemical structure of conjugated polymer blend films with a spatial resolution of better than 50 nm using scanning transmission x-ray microscopy (STXM). This is not just another application of STXM. It is a breakthrough experiment on several levels. Correlating local composition to electronic/optical device characteristics will pave the way to characterizing a whole new class of materials with

  4. Mapping the Nanoscale Landscape

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Mapping the Nanoscale Landscape Print For the first time, researchers have successfully mapped the chemical structure of conjugated polymer blend films with a spatial resolution of better than 50 nm using scanning transmission x-ray microscopy (STXM). This is not just another application of STXM. It is a breakthrough experiment on several levels. Correlating local composition to electronic/optical device characteristics will pave the way to characterizing a whole new class of materials with

  5. Mapping the Nanoscale Landscape

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Mapping the Nanoscale Landscape Print For the first time, researchers have successfully mapped the chemical structure of conjugated polymer blend films with a spatial resolution of better than 50 nm using scanning transmission x-ray microscopy (STXM). This is not just another application of STXM. It is a breakthrough experiment on several levels. Correlating local composition to electronic/optical device characteristics will pave the way to characterizing a whole new class of materials with

  6. Mapping the Nanoscale Landscape

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Mapping the Nanoscale Landscape Print For the first time, researchers have successfully mapped the chemical structure of conjugated polymer blend films with a spatial resolution of better than 50 nm using scanning transmission x-ray microscopy (STXM). This is not just another application of STXM. It is a breakthrough experiment on several levels. Correlating local composition to electronic/optical device characteristics will pave the way to characterizing a whole new class of materials with

  7. Southwest Area Corridor Map | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Southwest Area Corridor Map Southwest Area Corridor Map A map of the southwest area corridor. PDF icon Southwest Area Corridor Map More Documents & Publications Southwest Area ...

  8. Quantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Quantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land Use Change GHG Emissions Quantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land Use Change GHG Emissions ...

  9. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  10. NREL: Dynamic Maps, GIS Data, and Analysis Tools - International Maps

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    International Maps Below are some examples of how geographic information system (GIS) modeling is used in international resource analyses. The JPG images are samples of the maps available. Refer to the Geospatial Toolkits for further information. Map of the Republic of the Philippines Wind Speed at 100m Map of Republic of the Philippines Wind Power Density at 80m Map of Flat Plate Tilted at Latitude Resource of China Map of Republic of the Philippines Wind Speed at 100m JPG 6,336 KB Map of

  11. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  12. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  13. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  14. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Value of Improved Short- Term Wind Power Forecasting B.-M. Hodge and A. Florita National Renewable Energy Laboratory J. Sharp Sharply Focused, LLC M. Margulis and D. Mcreavy Lockheed Martin Technical Report NREL/TP-5D00-63175 February 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

  15. Career Map: Land Acquisition Specialist

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Program's Career Map provides job description information for Land Acquisition Specialist positions.

  16. Career Map: Environmental Science Technician

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Program's Career Map provides job description information for Environmental Science Technician positions.

  17. Career Map: Analyst/Researcher

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Program's Career Map provides job description information for Analyst/Researcher positions.

  18. Physical mapping of complex genomes

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Evans, G.A.

    1993-06-15

    A method for the simultaneous identification of overlapping cosmid clones among multiple cosmid clones and the use of the method for mapping complex genomes are provided. A library of cosmid clones that contains the DNA to be mapped is constructed and arranged in a manner such that individual clones can be identified and replicas of the arranged clones prepared. In preferred embodiments, the clones are arranged in a two dimensional matrix. In such embodiments, the cosmid clones in a row are pooled, mixed probes complementary to the ends of the DNA inserts in the pooled clones are synthesized, hybridized to a first replica of the library. Hybridizing clones, which include the pooled row, are identified. A second portion of clones is prepared by pooling cosmid clones that correspond to a column in the matrix. The second pool thereby includes one clone from the first portion pooled clones. This common clone is located on the replica at the intersection of the column and row. Mixed probes complementary to the ends of the DNA inserts in the second pooled portion of clones are prepared and hybridized to a second replica of the library. The hybridization pattern on the first and second replicas of the library are compared and cross-hybridizing clones, other than the clones in the pooled column and row, that hybridize to identical clones in the first and second replicas are identified. These clones necessarily include DNA inserts that overlap with the DNA insert in the common clone located at the intersection of the pooled row and pooled column. The DNA in the entire library may be mapped by pooling the clones in each of the rows and columns of the matrix, preparing mixed end-specific probes and hybridizing the probes from each row or column to a replica of the library. Since all clones in the library are located at the intersection of a column and a row, the overlapping clones for all clones in the library may be identified and a physical map constructed.

  19. Physical mapping of complex genomes

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Evans, Glen A.

    1993-01-01

    Method for simultaneous identification of overlapping cosmid clones among multiple cosmid clones and the use of the method for mapping complex genomes are provided. A library of cosmid clones that contains the DNA to be mapped is constructed and arranged in a manner such that individual clones can be identified and replicas of the arranged clones prepared. In preferred embodiments, the clones are arranged in a two dimensional matrix. In such embodiments, the cosmid clones in a row are pooled, mixed probes complementary to the ends of the DNA inserts int he pooled clones are synthesized, hybridized to a first replica of the library. Hybridizing clones, which include the pooled row, are identified. A second portion of clones is prepared by pooling cosmid clones that correspond to a column in the matrix. The second pool thereby includes one clone from the first portion pooled clones. This common clone is located on the replica at the intersection of the column and row. Mixed probes complementary to the ends of the DNA inserts in the second pooled portion of clones are prepared and hybridized to a second replica of the library. The hybridization pattern on the first and second replicas of the library are compared and cross-hybridizing clones, other than the clones in the pooled column and row, that hybridize to identical clones in the first and second replicas are identified. These clones necessarily include DNA inserts that overlap with the DNA insert int he common clone located at the intersection of the pooled row and pooled column. The DNA in the entire library may be mapped by pooling the clones in each of the rows and columns of the matrix, preparing mixed end-specific probes and hybridizing the probes from each row or column to a replica of the library. Since all clones in the library are located at the intersection of a column and a row, the overlapping clones for all clones in the library may be identified and a physical map constructed. In other preferred embodiments, the cosmid clones are arranged in a three dimensional matrix, pooled and compared in threes according to intersecting planes of the three dimensional matrix. Arrangements corresponding to geometries of higher dimensions may also be prepared and used to simultaneously identify overlapping clones in highly complex libraries with relatively few hybridization reactions.

  20. Manhattan Project: Site Map

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    SITE MAP Resources > Site Map THE MANHATTAN PROJECT Events 1890s-1939: Atomic Discoveries A Miniature Solar System, 1890s-1919 Exploring the Atom, 1919-1932 Atomic Bombardment, 1932-1938 The Discovery of Fission, 1938-1939 Fission Comes to America, 1939 1939-1942: Early Government Support Einstein's Letter, 1939 Early Uranium Research, 1939-1941 Piles and Plutonium, 1939-1941 Reorganization and Acceleration, 1940-1941 The MAUD Report, 1941 A Tentative Decision to Build the Bomb, 1941-1942

  1. Mapping the Nanoscale Landscape

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Mapping a Course to Improved Community Resilience Mapping a Course to Improved Community Resilience June 4, 2015 - 2:16pm Addthis OE interns Jeremy Call and Henry Puppe at last month's first-ever mapathon hosted by the White House OE interns Jeremy Call and Henry Puppe at last month's first-ever mapathon hosted by the White House Denice Ross Denice Ross Last month's first-ever mapathon hosted by the White House brought people together from across the public and private sectors to celebrate and

  2. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

  3. Category:Maps | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    category, out of 6 total. B Map of Biomass Facilities C Map of Clean Energy Companies G Map of Geothermal Facilities S Map of Solar Energy Companies Map of Solar Power Plants W...

  4. Learning maps -- Application

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Paullin, W.L.

    1999-07-01

    The paper consists of a series of slides used in the presentation. They summarize the Root Learning Map process which is a tool that allows a company to modify its culture to improve productivity by allowing employees to have a vested interest in the outcome of the company. Educating the employees about different aspects of the organization is a major part of the process.

  5. INSTRUMENTATION, INCLUDING NUCLEAR AND PARTICLE DETECTORS; RADIATION

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    interval technical basis document Chiaro, P.J. Jr. 44 INSTRUMENTATION, INCLUDING NUCLEAR AND PARTICLE DETECTORS; RADIATION DETECTORS; RADIATION MONITORS; DOSEMETERS;...

  6. Annual Technology Baseline (Including Supporting Data); NREL...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Annual Technology Baseline (Including Supporting Data); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Annual Technology Baseline ...

  7. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  8. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  9. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  10. Career Map: Power Marketer | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Frequent travel is often required to meet with utility representatives. Power marketers typically do the following: Monitor and forecast marketing and sales trends Measure the ...

  11. Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

  12. NREL: Dynamic Maps, GIS Data, and Analysis Tools - Geothermal Maps

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Geothermal Prospector Start exploring U.S. geothermal resources with an easy-to-use map by selecting dataset layers that are NGDS compatible. Bookmark and Share Geothermal Maps These maps show existing and developing geothermal power plants, geothermal resource potential estimates, and other information related to geothermal power. They are updated as information becomes available, but may not represent all available geothermal data. Resource Potential The geothermal resource potential map (JPG

  13. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  14. Mapping Particle Charges in Battery Electrodes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of Energy Map: Projected Growth of the Wind Industry From Now Until 2050 Map: Projected Growth of the Wind Industry From Now Until 2050 Wind Vision See the projected growth of the wind industry over the next 35 years. Select a Year 2000 2010 2013 2020 2030 2050 All units are in gigawatts (GW). Only states with total capacity over 0.1 GW are included per year. Find out more about the data by reading the Wind Vision Report. You can download the data used for this graphic directly here.

  15. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  16. Clinton Engineer Works map | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Clinton Engineer Works map Clinton Engineer Works map

  17. FEM: Feature-enhanced map

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Afonine, Pavel V.; Moriarty, Nigel W.; Mustyakimov, Marat; Sobolev, Oleg V.; Terwilliger, Thomas C.; Turk, Dusan; Urzhumtsev, Alexandre; Adams, Paul D.

    2015-02-26

    A method is presented that modifies a 2mFobs-DFmodelσA-weighted map such that the resulting map can strengthen a weak signal, if present, and can reduce model bias and noise. The method consists of first randomizing the starting map and filling in missing reflections using multiple methods. This is followed by restricting the map to regions with convincing density and the application of sharpening. The final map is then created by combining a series of histogram-equalized intermediate maps. In the test cases shown, the maps produced in this way are found to have increased interpretability and decreased model bias compared with the starting 2mFobs-DFmodelσA-weighted map.

  18. FEM: Feature-enhanced map

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Afonine, Pavel V.; Moriarty, Nigel W.; Mustyakimov, Marat; Sobolev, Oleg V.; Terwilliger, Thomas C.; Turk, Dusan; Urzhumtsev, Alexandre; Adams, Paul D.

    2015-02-26

    A method is presented that modifies a 2mFobs-DFmodelσA-weighted map such that the resulting map can strengthen a weak signal, if present, and can reduce model bias and noise. The method consists of first randomizing the starting map and filling in missing reflections using multiple methods. This is followed by restricting the map to regions with convincing density and the application of sharpening. The final map is then created by combining a series of histogram-equalized intermediate maps. In the test cases shown, the maps produced in this way are found to have increased interpretability and decreased model bias compared with themore » starting 2mFobs-DFmodelσA-weighted map.« less

  19. Geothermal Maps | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    The maps below were developed by National Laboratories, universities and other organizations. Maps by Energy Type or Measurement Direct-use projects in the United States - Geo-Heat ...

  20. maps | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    queries developer Google maps maps multicolor result formats results Semantic Mediawiki Hi all, Recently, a couple of people on OpenEI have asked me how to do compound (or...

  1. Gas storage materials, including hydrogen storage materials

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Mohtadi, Rana F; Wicks, George G; Heung, Leung K; Nakamura, Kenji

    2013-02-19

    A material for the storage and release of gases comprises a plurality of hollow elements, each hollow element comprising a porous wall enclosing an interior cavity, the interior cavity including structures of a solid-state storage material. In particular examples, the storage material is a hydrogen storage material such as a solid state hydride. An improved method for forming such materials includes the solution diffusion of a storage material solution through a porous wall of a hollow element into an interior cavity.

  2. Gas storage materials, including hydrogen storage materials

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Mohtadi, Rana F; Wicks, George G; Heung, Leung K; Nakamura, Kenji

    2014-11-25

    A material for the storage and release of gases comprises a plurality of hollow elements, each hollow element comprising a porous wall enclosing an interior cavity, the interior cavity including structures of a solid-state storage material. In particular examples, the storage material is a hydrogen storage material, such as a solid state hydride. An improved method for forming such materials includes the solution diffusion of a storage material solution through a porous wall of a hollow element into an interior cavity.

  3. Communications circuit including a linear quadratic estimator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Ferguson, Dennis D.

    2015-07-07

    A circuit includes a linear quadratic estimator (LQE) configured to receive a plurality of measurements a signal. The LQE is configured to weight the measurements based on their respective uncertainties to produce weighted averages. The circuit further includes a controller coupled to the LQE and configured to selectively adjust at least one data link parameter associated with a communication channel in response to receiving the weighted averages.

  4. Intentionally Including - Engaging Minorities in Physics Careers |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Intentionally Including - Engaging Minorities in Physics Careers Intentionally Including - Engaging Minorities in Physics Careers April 24, 2013 - 4:37pm Addthis Joining Director Dot Harris (second from left) were Marlene Kaplan, the Deputy Director of Education and director of EPP, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Claudia Rankins, a Program Officer with the National Science Foundation and Jim Stith, the past Vice-President of the American Institute of

  5. MHK technologies include current energy conversion

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    technologies include current energy conversion (CEC) devices, e.g., hydrokinetic turbines that extract power from water currents (riverine, tidal, and ocean) and wave energy conversion (WEC) devices that extract power from wave motion. Sandia's MHK research leverages decades of experience in engineering and design and analysis (D&A) of wind power technologies, and its vast research complex, including high-performance computing (HPC), advanced materials and coatings, nondestructive

  6. SRNL Site Map

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    spacer 11/22/2013 SEARCH SRNL GO SRNL Home SRNL Site Map About SRNL From the Director Operational Excellence Leadership Our History Visiting SRNL Science & Innovation National Security Enviromental Stewardship Clean Energy Innovations Fact Sheets PDRD / LDRD Working with SRNL Technology Transfer Technology Partnerships Our Facilities Main Campus ACTL - Aiken County Technology Laboratory HTRL - Hydrogen Technology Research Laboratory EMRL - Energy Materials Research Laboratory F / H Lab

  7. Site Map - Cyclotron Institute

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Site Map Cyclotron Institute About K500 Beam Schedule Recent News Seminars and Colloquia Cyclotron Institute Safety (limited access) Radiation Effects Facility REU Program Research Heavy Ion Reactions Fundamental Interactions Nuclear Astrophysics Interactions of Highly Charged Ions With Matter Theoretical Nuclear Physics Nuclear Structure External Collaborations Publications Research Groups Facilities K500 Cyclotron ECR Ion Sources MARS Big Sol MDM Spectrometer NIMROD Precision On-Line Decay

  8. Geothermal Maps | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Information Resources » Geothermal Maps Geothermal Maps Map of the United States, with color bands indicating favorability of deep EGS and dots indicating identified hydrothermal sites. The Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) carries out R&D and demonstration efforts to deploy 12 GWe of clean geothermal energy by 2020 and expand geothermal into new U.S. regions. Locating and developing resources is an important part of that mission. GTO works with national laboratories to develop maps and

  9. WINDExchange: Wind Maps and Data

    Wind Powering America (EERE)

    Wind Maps and Data WINDExchange provides wind maps and anemometer data to help homeowners, communities, states, and regions learn more about their available wind resources and plan wind energy projects. WINDExchange also maintains more than a decade of installed capacity maps showing how wind energy has progressed across the United States over time as advances in wind technology and materials make wind resources more available. A map illustration of the United States showing the various wind

  10. Building Your Message Map Worksheet

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Building Your Message Map Worksheet, as posted on the U.S. Department of Energy's Better Buildings Neighborhood Program website.

  11. Solar Mapping Resources | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Mapping Resources Solar Mapping Resources Solar Mapping Resources Choosing solar energy is a big investment. In order to help consumers quantify the potential benefits,...

  12. Alternative Water Sources Map | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Facilities Water Efficiency Alternative Water Sources Map Alternative Water Sources Map The Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) created the Alternative Water Map to...

  13. Scramjet including integrated inlet and combustor

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kutschenreuter, P.H. Jr.; Blanton, J.C.

    1992-02-04

    This patent describes a scramjet engine. It comprises: a first surface including an aft facing step; a cowl including: a leading edge and a trailing edge; an upper surface and a lower surface extending between the leading edge and the trailing edge; the cowl upper surface being spaced from and generally parallel to the first surface to define an integrated inlet-combustor therebetween having an inlet for receiving and channeling into the inlet-combustor supersonic inlet airflow; means for injecting fuel into the inlet-combustor at the step for mixing with the supersonic inlet airflow for generating supersonic combustion gases; and further including a spaced pari of sidewalls extending between the first surface to the cowl upper surface and wherein the integrated inlet-combustor is generally rectangular and defined by the sidewall pair, the first surface and the cowl upper surface.

  14. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2005-08-17

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

  15. Electric Power Monthly, August 1990. [Glossary included

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-11-29

    The Electric Power Monthly (EPM) presents monthly summaries of electric utility statistics at the national, Census division, and State level. The purpose of this publication is to provide energy decisionmakers with accurate and timely information that may be used in forming various perspectives on electric issues that lie ahead. Data includes generation by energy source (coal, oil, gas, hydroelectric, and nuclear); generation by region; consumption of fossil fuels for power generation; sales of electric power, cost data; and unusual occurrences. A glossary is included.

  16. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  17. EPA Launches New Online Mapping Tool for Environmental Impact...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    on any state for a list of EISs, including information about the potential environmental, social and economic impacts of these projects. Users can click on a state in the map and...

  18. NREL: Dynamic Maps, GIS Data, and Analysis Tools - Wind Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    resource data at various hub heights and spatial resolutions for both land-based and offshore data including the data used in the maps located at the WINDExchange and U.S. DOE...

  19. Geologic Map of the Eugene Mountains, Northwestern Nevada | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Northwestern NevadaInfo GraphicMapChart Abstract Relief shown by contours and spot heights. Includes 3 col. cross sections, 3 col. graphical insets and 1 table designated...

  20. ARM - PI Product - CCRS Landcover Maps From Satellite Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    several landcover maps over the SGP CART site area (32-40N, 92-102W) derived from satellite data including AVHRR, MODIS, SPOT vegetation data, and Landsat satellite TM...

  1. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil prices low. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said world oil stocks are likely to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day this year and by 600,000 barrels per day next year. The higher forecast for inventory builds are the result of both higher global oil production and less oil

  2. Subterranean barriers including at least one weld

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Nickelson, Reva A.; Sloan, Paul A.; Richardson, John G.; Walsh, Stephanie; Kostelnik, Kevin M.

    2007-01-09

    A subterranean barrier and method for forming same are disclosed, the barrier including a plurality of casing strings wherein at least one casing string of the plurality of casing strings may be affixed to at least another adjacent casing string of the plurality of casing strings through at least one weld, at least one adhesive joint, or both. A method and system for nondestructively inspecting a subterranean barrier is disclosed. For instance, a radiographic signal may be emitted from within a casing string toward an adjacent casing string and the radiographic signal may be detected from within the adjacent casing string. A method of repairing a barrier including removing at least a portion of a casing string and welding a repair element within the casing string is disclosed. A method of selectively heating at least one casing string forming at least a portion of a subterranean barrier is disclosed.

  3. Photoactive devices including porphyrinoids with coordinating additives

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Forrest, Stephen R; Zimmerman, Jeramy; Yu, Eric K; Thompson, Mark E; Trinh, Cong; Whited, Matthew; Diev, Vlacheslav

    2015-05-12

    Coordinating additives are included in porphyrinoid-based materials to promote intermolecular organization and improve one or more photoelectric characteristics of the materials. The coordinating additives are selected from fullerene compounds and organic compounds having free electron pairs. Combinations of different coordinating additives can be used to tailor the characteristic properties of such porphyrinoid-based materials, including porphyrin oligomers. Bidentate ligands are one type of coordinating additive that can form coordination bonds with a central metal ion of two different porphyrinoid compounds to promote porphyrinoid alignment and/or pi-stacking. The coordinating additives can shift the absorption spectrum of a photoactive material toward higher wavelengths, increase the external quantum efficiency of the material, or both.

  4. MAp GENeralization COntroller

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1995-02-24

    MAGENCO is a geographic information systems (GIS) tool for managing geospatial data. It assists in choosing an appropriate level of cartographic simplification (removal of vertices while preserving line character). While an effective algorithm for this task exists (Douglas-Peucker, published in 1973), the tolerance parameter depends on the fractal dimension or the natural or manmade feature, the scale of mapping, and the uses to which the data will be put. It is thus necessary to iterativelymore » test different parameters until an acceptable one is found.« less

  5. Power generation method including membrane separation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lokhandwala, Kaaeid A.

    2000-01-01

    A method for generating electric power, such as at, or close to, natural gas fields. The method includes conditioning natural gas containing C.sub.3+ hydrocarbons and/or acid gas by means of a membrane separation step. This step creates a leaner, sweeter, drier gas, which is then used as combustion fuel to run a turbine, which is in turn used for power generation.

  6. Nuclear reactor shield including magnesium oxide

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Rouse, Carl A.; Simnad, Massoud T.

    1981-01-01

    An improvement in nuclear reactor shielding of a type used in reactor applications involving significant amounts of fast neutron flux, the reactor shielding including means providing structural support, neutron moderator material, neutron absorber material and other components as described below, wherein at least a portion of the neutron moderator material is magnesium in the form of magnesium oxide either alone or in combination with other moderator materials such as graphite and iron.

  7. Electric power monthly, September 1990. [Glossary included

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-12-17

    The purpose of this report is to provide energy decision makers with accurate and timely information that may be used in forming various perspectives on electric issues. The power plants considered include coal, petroleum, natural gas, hydroelectric, and nuclear power plants. Data are presented for power generation, fuel consumption, fuel receipts and cost, sales of electricity, and unusual occurrences at power plants. Data are compared at the national, Census division, and state levels. 4 figs., 52 tabs. (CK)

  8. Rotor assembly including superconducting magnetic coil

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Snitchler, Gregory L. (Shrewsbury, MA); Gamble, Bruce B. (Wellesley, MA); Voccio, John P. (Somerville, MA)

    2003-01-01

    Superconducting coils and methods of manufacture include a superconductor tape wound concentrically about and disposed along an axis of the coil to define an opening having a dimension which gradually decreases, in the direction along the axis, from a first end to a second end of the coil. Each turn of the superconductor tape has a broad surface maintained substantially parallel to the axis of the coil.

  9. Category:Map Files | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    has the following 4 subcategories, out of 4 total. M Map Image Files Map PDF Files N NREL Map Files 1 pages S SWERA Map Files Media in category...

  10. Widget:GasMap | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    GasMap Jump to: navigation, search Gas map widget: The Gas Map displays real-time gas prices for the United States Example Output Gas map widget: Denver Gas Prices provided by...

  11. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWEFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070 - Document number changed to HNF-0918 at revision 1 - 1/7/97

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-10-03

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed at Hanford`s Solid Waste (SW) Program from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the SW Program; program- level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and Li comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. The focus of this web site is on low- level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this site is reporting data current as of 9/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program`s life cycle.

  12. Quantitive DNA Fiber Mapping

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lu, Chun-Mei; Wang, Mei; Greulich-Bode, Karin M.; Weier, Jingly F.; Weier, Heinz-Ulli G.

    2008-01-28

    Several hybridization-based methods used to delineate single copy or repeated DNA sequences in larger genomic intervals take advantage of the increased resolution and sensitivity of free chromatin, i.e., chromatin released from interphase cell nuclei. Quantitative DNA fiber mapping (QDFM) differs from the majority of these methods in that it applies FISH to purified, clonal DNA molecules which have been bound with at least one end to a solid substrate. The DNA molecules are then stretched by the action of a receding meniscus at the water-air interface resulting in DNA molecules stretched homogeneously to about 2.3 kb/{micro}m. When non-isotopically, multicolor-labeled probes are hybridized to these stretched DNA fibers, their respective binding sites are visualized in the fluorescence microscope, their relative distance can be measured and converted into kilobase pairs (kb). The QDFM technique has found useful applications ranging from the detection and delineation of deletions or overlap between linked clones to the construction of high-resolution physical maps to studies of stalled DNA replication and transcription.

  13. NREL: Dynamic Maps, GIS Data, and Analysis Tools - Hydrogen Maps

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Hydrogen Maps Below are some examples of how geographic information system (GIS) modeling is used in hydrogen infrastructure, demand, market and resource analyses. The JPG images are samples of the maps available in the following PDFs. Refer to the report for further information. Some of the following documents are available as Adobe Acrobat PDFs. Download Adobe Reader. Map of U.S. Hydrogen Infrastructure Demand - Consumer Strategy U.S. Hydrogen Infrastructure Demand - Consumer Strategy (JPG 129

  14. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within...

  15. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled “Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.” By researching the physical processes...

  16. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  17. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an...

  18. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    That's down 12 percent from last summer's record exports. Biodiesel production, which averaged 68,000 barrels a day last summer, is forecast to jump to 82,000 barrels a day this ...

  19. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. ...

  20. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  1. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  2. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in ...

  3. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  4. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  5. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  6. Drapery assembly including insulated drapery liner

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Cukierski, Gwendolyn (Ithaca, NY)

    1983-01-01

    A drapery assembly is disclosed for covering a framed wall opening, the assembly including drapery panels hung on a horizontal traverse rod, the rod having a pair of master slides and means for displacing the master slides between open and closed positions. A pair of insulating liner panels are positioned behind the drapery, the remote side edges of the liner panels being connected with the side portions of the opening frame, and the adjacent side edges of the liner panels being connected with a pair of vertically arranged center support members adapted for sliding movement longitudinally of a horizontal track member secured to the upper horizontal portion of the opening frame. Pivotally arranged brackets connect the center support members with the master slides of the traverse rod whereby movement of the master slides to effect opening and closing of the drapery panels effects simultaneous opening and closing of the liner panels.

  7. Thermovoltaic semiconductor device including a plasma filter

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Baldasaro, Paul F.

    1999-01-01

    A thermovoltaic energy conversion device and related method for converting thermal energy into an electrical potential. An interference filter is provided on a semiconductor thermovoltaic cell to pre-filter black body radiation. The semiconductor thermovoltaic cell includes a P/N junction supported on a substrate which converts incident thermal energy below the semiconductor junction band gap into electrical potential. The semiconductor substrate is doped to provide a plasma filter which reflects back energy having a wavelength which is above the band gap and which is ineffectively filtered by the interference filter, through the P/N junction to the source of radiation thereby avoiding parasitic absorption of the unusable portion of the thermal radiation energy.

  8. Optical panel system including stackable waveguides

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    DeSanto, Leonard; Veligdan, James T.

    2007-03-06

    An optical panel system including stackable waveguides is provided. The optical panel system displays a projected light image and comprises a plurality of planar optical waveguides in a stacked state. The optical panel system further comprises a support system that aligns and supports the waveguides in the stacked state. In one embodiment, the support system comprises at least one rod, wherein each waveguide contains at least one hole, and wherein each rod is positioned through a corresponding hole in each waveguide. In another embodiment, the support system comprises at least two opposing edge structures having the waveguides positioned therebetween, wherein each opposing edge structure contains a mating surface, wherein opposite edges of each waveguide contain mating surfaces which are complementary to the mating surfaces of the opposing edge structures, and wherein each mating surface of the opposing edge structures engages a corresponding complementary mating surface of the opposite edges of each waveguide.

  9. Optical panel system including stackable waveguides

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    DeSanto, Leonard; Veligdan, James T.

    2007-11-20

    An optical panel system including stackable waveguides is provided. The optical panel system displays a projected light image and comprises a plurality of planar optical waveguides in a stacked state. The optical panel system further comprises a support system that aligns and supports the waveguides in the stacked state. In one embodiment, the support system comprises at least one rod, wherein each waveguide contains at least one hole, and wherein each rod is positioned through a corresponding hole in each waveguide. In another embodiment, the support system comprises at least two opposing edge structures having the waveguides positioned therebetween, wherein each opposing edge structure contains a mating surface, wherein opposite edges of each waveguide contain mating surfaces which are complementary to the mating surfaces of the opposing edge structures, and wherein each mating surface of the opposing edge structures engages a corresponding complementary mating surface of the opposite edges of each waveguide.

  10. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ARM Observations (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations (in English; Croatian) Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was

  11. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  12. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  13. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  14. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  15. HCEI Road Map: 2011 Edition (Brochure)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    HCEI Road Map 2011 Edition 2 www.hawaiicleanenergyinitiative.org The Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) was founded based on a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the State of Hawaii and the U.S. Department of Energy on Jan. 28, 2008. Upon inception, the State and the Department worked to form a series of working groups incorporating a variety of stakeholders throughout the state, including local government, not-for-profit organizations, private sector companies, trade associations,

  16. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  17. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  18. Engine lubrication circuit including two pumps

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lane, William H.

    2006-10-03

    A lubrication pump coupled to the engine is sized such that the it can supply the engine with a predetermined flow volume as soon as the engine reaches a peak torque engine speed. In engines that operate predominately at speeds above the peak torque engine speed, the lubrication pump is often producing lubrication fluid in excess of the predetermined flow volume that is bypassed back to a lubrication fluid source. This arguably results in wasted power. In order to more efficiently lubricate an engine, a lubrication circuit includes a lubrication pump and a variable delivery pump. The lubrication pump is operably coupled to the engine, and the variable delivery pump is in communication with a pump output controller that is operable to vary a lubrication fluid output from the variable delivery pump as a function of at least one of engine speed and lubrication flow volume or system pressure. Thus, the lubrication pump can be sized to produce the predetermined flow volume at a speed range at which the engine predominately operates while the variable delivery pump can supplement lubrication fluid delivery from the lubrication pump at engine speeds below the predominant engine speed range.

  19. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  20. Alternative Fuels Data Center: Maps and Data

    Alternative Fuels and Advanced Vehicles Data Center [Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)]

    Maps & Data Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to Alternative Fuels Data Center: Maps and Data to someone by E-mail Share Alternative Fuels Data Center: Maps and Data on Facebook Tweet about Alternative Fuels Data Center: Maps and Data on Twitter Bookmark Alternative Fuels Data Center: Maps and Data on Google Bookmark Alternative Fuels Data Center: Maps and Data on Delicious Rank Alternative Fuels Data Center: Maps and Data on Digg Find More places to share Alternative Fuels

  1. ANL's Map and Data Browser

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1998-07-13

    The MaD browser is a web browser Java applet developed to display and interact with vector graphic (map) objects, relational database tables, and other data sources. It was designed for use in remedial action projects to quickly and widely disseminate sampling results but is generally applicable to many other mapping situations. Its primary value is its simplicity and general availability.

  2. Clutter in the GMTI range-velocity map.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doerry, Armin Walter

    2009-04-01

    Ground Moving Target Indicator (GMTI) radar maps echo data to range and range-rate, which is a function of a moving target's velocity and its position within the antenna beam footprint. Even stationary clutter will exhibit an apparent motion spectrum and can interfere with moving vehicle detections. Consequently it is very important for a radar to understand how stationary clutter maps into radar measurements of range and velocity. This mapping depends on a wide variety of factors, including details of the radar motion, orientation, and the 3-D topography of the clutter.

  3. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    outcome of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular interest are: 1. Correlated behavior among variables (e.g., changes in dispatch stacks, production costs, or generation by type as a function of forecasting accuracy); 2. The relative reduction in wind curtailment with improved forecasting accuracy; and 3. The value of information (e.g., which subset of

  4. NREL: Dynamic Maps, GIS Data, and Analysis Tools - Data Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bookmark and Share Data Resources NREL's Geospatial Data Science Team develops technology-specific GIS data maps for a variety of areas, as well as targeted analysis tools that can help determine availability of renewable energy resources. Geographic Information System Data NREL's Geospatial Data Science Team develops technology-specific GIS data maps for a variety of areas, including biomass, geothermal, solar, wind, and renewable hydrogen. The team has made some of our datasets available for

  5. Geologic Map and GIS Data for the Tuscarora Geothermal Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Faulds, James E.

    2013-12-31

    Tuscarora—ESRI Geodatabase (ArcGeology v1.3): - Contains all the geologic map data, including faults, contacts, folds, unit polygons, and attitudes of strata and faults. - List of stratigraphic units and stratigraphic correlation diagram. - Detailed unit descriptions of stratigraphic units. - Five cross‐sections. - Locations of production, injection, and monitor wells. - 3D model constructed with EarthVision using geologic map data, cross‐sections, drill‐hole data, and geophysics (model not in the ESRI geodatabase).

  6. Ionic liquids, electrolyte solutions including the ionic liquids, and energy storage devices including the ionic liquids

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gering, Kevin L.; Harrup, Mason K.; Rollins, Harry W.

    2015-12-08

    An ionic liquid including a phosphazene compound that has a plurality of phosphorus-nitrogen units and at least one pendant group bonded to each phosphorus atom of the plurality of phosphorus-nitrogen units. One pendant group of the at least one pendant group comprises a positively charged pendant group. Additional embodiments of ionic liquids are disclosed, as are electrolyte solutions and energy storage devices including the embodiments of the ionic liquid.

  7. NREL: Dynamic Maps, GIS Data, and Analysis Tools - Biomass Maps

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Biomass Maps These maps illustrate the biomass resources generated in the United States by county. Biomass feedstock data are analyzed both statistically and graphically using a geographic information system (GIS). The following feedstock categories are evaluated: crop residues, forest residues, primary and secondary mill residues, urban wood waste, and methane emissions from animal manure, landfills, wastewater treatment, and industrial, institutional, and commercial organic waste (e.g. food

  8. Bouguer gravity map | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    LibraryAdd to library Map: Bouguer gravity mapInfo GraphicMapChart Cartographers J. Behrendt and L. Bajwa Organization U.S. Geological Survey Published U.S. Geological...

  9. Department of Energy Idaho -Site Map

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Web Policies No Fear Act Site Map Privacy Phone Book You are here: DOE-ID Home > Site Map Site Map Manager's Welcome Inside ID DOE-ID Mission and Vision Brief History of the Idaho ...

  10. Denver Basin Map | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Basin Map Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Web Site: Denver Basin Map Abstract This webpage contains a map of the Denver Basin. Published Colorado...

  11. HabiMap | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    LibraryAdd to library : HabiMapInfo GraphicMapChart Abstract The Arizona Game and Fish Department developed HabiMap(tm) Arizona - a user-friendly, web-based data viewer - to...

  12. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  13. Map | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Enabling Unique Visualization and Manipulation of Energy Data at Multiple Scales FRED Free Energy Data Map OpenEI Tool Visualization The U.S. Department of Energy, the Pacific...

  14. Maps of Selected State Subdivisions

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AK 00 - South Federal Offshore Map 2: California CA 50 - Coastal Region Onshore CA 90 - Los Angeles Basin Onshore CA 10 - San Joaquin Basin Onshore CA 05 - State Offshore CA 00 - ...

  15. Interactive Map Shows Geothermal Resources

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The free interactive online map posted recently by the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries is part of a U.S. Department of Energy project to expand the knowledge of geothermal energy potential nationwide.

  16. A map of the universe

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gott III, J. Richard; Juric, Mario; Schlegel, David; Hoyle, Fiona; Vogeley, Michael; Tegmark, Max; Bahcall, Neta; Brinkmann, Jon

    2003-10-20

    We have produced a new conformal map of the universe illustrating recent discoveries, ranging from Kuiper belt objects in the Solar system, to the galaxies and quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. This map projection, based on the logarithm map of the complex plane, preserves shapes locally, and yet is able to display the entire range of astronomical scales from the Earth s neighborhood to the cosmic microwave background. The conformal nature of the projection, preserving shapes locally, may be of particular use for analyzing large scale structure. Prominent in the map is a Sloan Great Wall of galaxies 1.37 billion light years long, 80 percent longer than the Great Wall discovered by Geller and Huchra and therefore the largest observed structure in the universe.

  17. Property:CoverageMap | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Inc., dba Minnesota Power Smart Grid Project + SmartGridMap-ALLETEMNPower.JPG + American Transmission Company LLC II Smart Grid Project + SmartGridMap-AmericanTransmissionII....

  18. Special Feature: Supercomputers Map Our Changing Climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Supercomputers Map Our Changing Climate Special Feature: Supercomputers Map Our Changing Climate September 23, 2013 Contact: Jon Bashor, jbashor@lbl.gov, 510-486-5849 ...

  19. Uranium Lease Tracts Location Map | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Uranium Lease Tracts Location Map Uranium Lease Tracts Location Map Uranium Lease Tracts Location Map PDF icon Uranium Lease Tracts Location Map More Documents & Publications ...

  20. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below $3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below $3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular gasoline should average $2.33 per gallon this year. The price of gasoline increased in early February after falling for 17 weeks in a row. But gasoline prices will continue to remain low in 2015 when compared with pump prices in recent

  1. A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the "Microbase" value added product (referred to as OBS, within

  2. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  3. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  4. Mapping the Energy-Water Nexus around the Pacific Rim

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tidwell, Vincent C.; Moreland, Barbara Denise

    2016-01-01

    The energy-water nexus has been mapped for almost 12,000 watersheds distributed across the 21-economies comprising the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. Water consumption for energy production was estimated for 9 different sectors including thermoelectric and hydroelectric power; energy extraction including coal, oil, natural gas, uranium and unconventional oil/gas; and, energy processing including oil and biofuels. Conversely, the energy consumed providing water services was mapped for three sectors, drinking water, waste water and seawater desalination. These measures of resource use were put in context by drawing comparison with published measures of water risk. The objective of the mapping was to quantify the energy-water nexus and its variability at the subnational level, pinpoint potential vulnerabilities, and identify opportunities for international collaboration.

  5. White Oak Creek Watershed topographic map and related materials

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Farrow, N.D.

    1981-04-01

    On March 22, 1978 a contract was let to Accu-Air Surveys, Inc., of Seymour, Indiana, to produce a topographic map of the White Oak Creek Watershed. Working from photography and ground control surveys, Accu-Air produced a map to ORNL's specifications. The map is in four sections (N.W., N.E., S.W., S.E.) at a scale of 1:2400. Contour intervals are 5 ft (1.5 m) with accented delineations every 25 ft (7.6 m). The scribe method was used for the finished map. Planimetric features, roads, major fence lines, drainage features, and tree lines are included. The ORNL grid is the primary coordinate system which is superimposed on the state plain coordinates.

  6. Research Study - Global Enterprise VoIP Equipment Market Forecasts...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    we deeply analyzed the world's main region market conditions that including the product price, profit, capacity, production, capacity utilization, supply, demand and industry...

  7. Global GPS Phones Market Size, Segmentation, Demand Forecast...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    we deeply analyzed the world's main region market conditions that including the product price, profit, capacity, production, capacity utilization, supply, demand and industry...

  8. Loss maps of RHIC

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robert-Demolaize,G.

    2007-10-01

    State-of-the-art tracking tools were recently developed at CERN to study the cleaning efficiency of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) collimation system [1]. These tools are fully transportable, meaning that any accelerator lattice that includes a collimation system can be simulated. Each of the two Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) [2] beam lines features a multi-stage collimation system, therefore dedicated datasets from RHIC operations with proton beams can be used to benchmark the tracking codes and assess the accuracy of the predicted hot spots along the LHC.

  9. Career Map: Technical Trainer/Instructor

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Program's Career Map provides job description information for Technical Trainer/Instructor positions.

  10. Career Map: Training and Development Manager

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Program's Career Map provides job description information for Training and Development Manager positions.

  11. Career Map: Power Systems/Transmission Engineer

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Program's Career Map provides job description information for Power Systems and Transmission Engineer positions.

  12. Career Map: Site/Plant Manager

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Program's Career Map provides job description information for Site/Plant Manager positions.

  13. Map labeling and its generalizations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doddi, S. |; Marathe, M.V.; Mirzaian, A.; Moret, B.M.E.; Zhu, B. |

    1997-01-01

    Map labeling is of fundamental importance in cartography and geographical information systems and is one of the areas targeted for research by the ACM Computational Geometry Impact Task Force. Previous work on map labeling has focused on the problem of placing maximal uniform, axis-aligned, disjoint rectangles on the plane so that each point feature to be labeled lies at the corner of one rectangle. Here, we consider a number of variants of the map labeling problem. We obtain three general types of results. First, we devise constant-factor polynomial-time-approximation algorithms for labeling point features by rectangular labels, where the feature may lie anywhere on the boundary of its label region and where labeling rectangles may be placed in any orientation. These results generalize to the case of elliptical labels. Secondly, we consider the problem of labeling a map consisting of disjoint rectilinear fine segments. We obtain constant-factor polynomial-time approximation algorithms for the general problem and an optimal algorithm for the special case where all segments are horizontal. Finally, we formulate a bicriteria version of the map-labeling problem and provide bicriteria polynomial- time approximation schemes for a number of such problems.

  14. PBL FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Revenue Basis. The FB CRAC Revenue Basis is the total generation revenue (not including LB CRAC) for the loads subject to FB CRAC plus Slice loads, for the year in which the FB...

  15. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  16. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  17. NEW DEVELOPMENTS ON INVERSE POLYGON MAPPING TO CALCULATE GRAVITATIONAL LENSING MAGNIFICATION MAPS: OPTIMIZED COMPUTATIONS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mediavilla, E.; Lopez, P.; Gonzalez-Morcillo, C.; Jimenez-Vicente, J.

    2011-11-01

    We derive an exact solution (in the form of a series expansion) to compute gravitational lensing magnification maps. It is based on the backward gravitational lens mapping of a partition of the image plane in polygonal cells (inverse polygon mapping, IPM), not including critical points (except perhaps at the cell boundaries). The zeroth-order term of the series expansion leads to the method described by Mediavilla et al. The first-order term is used to study the error induced by the truncation of the series at zeroth order, explaining the high accuracy of the IPM even at this low order of approximation. Interpreting the Inverse Ray Shooting (IRS) method in terms of IPM, we explain the previously reported N {sup -3/4} dependence of the IRS error with the number of collected rays per pixel. Cells intersected by critical curves (critical cells) transform to non-simply connected regions with topological pathologies like auto-overlapping or non-preservation of the boundary under the transformation. To define a non-critical partition, we use a linear approximation of the critical curve to divide each critical cell into two non-critical subcells. The optimal choice of the cell size depends basically on the curvature of the critical curves. For typical applications in which the pixel of the magnification map is a small fraction of the Einstein radius, a one-to-one relationship between the cell and pixel sizes in the absence of lensing guarantees both the consistence of the method and a very high accuracy. This prescription is simple but very conservative. We show that substantially larger cells can be used to obtain magnification maps with huge savings in computation time.

  18. BrainMap `95 workshop

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-12-31

    The fourth annual BrainMap workshop was held at La Mansion del Rio Hotel in San Antonio December 3--4, 1995. The conference title was ``Human Brain Mapping and Modeling.`` The meeting was attended by 137 registered participants and 30 observers from 82 institutions representing 12 countries. The meeting focused on the technical issues associated with brain mapping and modeling. A total of 23 papers were presented covering the following topics: spatial normalization and registration; functional image analysis; metanalysis and modeling; and new horizons in biological databases. The full program with abstracts was available on the Research Imaging Center`s web site. A book will be published by John Wiley and Sons prior to the end of 1998.

  19. Alternative Water Sources Map | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Facilities » Water Efficiency » Alternative Water Sources Map Alternative Water Sources Map The Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) created the Alternative Water Map to provide information about rainwater harvesting regulations throughout the United States. FEMP designed the map to help agencies decide where to implement rainwater harvesting projects. Click on a state to learn about the state's rainwater harvesting regulations and technical resources. Then double-click on the map to zoom

  20. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  1. Geologic Map and GIS Data for the Wabuska Geothermal Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hinz, Nick

    2013-09-30

    Wabuska—ESRI geodatabase (ArcGeology v1.3): - Contains all the geologic map data, including faults, contacts, folds, veins, dikes, unit polygons, and attitudes of strata. - List of stratigraphic units and stratigraphic correlation diagram. - One cross‐section.

  2. Geologic Map and GIS Data for the Patua Geothermal Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Faulds, James E.

    2011-10-31

    Patua—ESRI Geodatabase (ArcGeology v1.3): - Contains all the geologic map data, including faults, contacts, folds, veins, dikes, unit polygons, and attitudes of strata and faults. - List of stratigraphic units. - Locations of geothermal wells. - Locations of 40Ar/39Ar and tephra samples.

  3. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised upward its projection for crude oil output in 2013 by 70,000 barrels per day and for next year by 190,000 barrels per day. U.S. oil production is now on track to average 7.5 million barrels per day this year and rise to 8.4 million barrels per day in 2014, according to EIA's latest monthly forecast.

  4. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    System A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast System Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Category: Radiation A new processor for evaluating the UV-B and UV-A radiation at the surface, based on modifications to the current shortwave radiation scheme of the ECMWF forecast system is described. Sensitivity studies of the UV surface irradiance and Erythemal Dose Rate to spectral resolution, representation and atmospheric

  5. NREL: Dynamic Maps, GIS Data, and Analysis Tools - Wind Maps

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Additional Resources Wind Prospector A web-based GIS applications designed to support resource assessment and data exploration associated with wind development. Wind Maps NREL's Geospatial Data Science Team offers both a national wind resource assessment of the United States and high-resolution wind data. The national wind resource assessment was created for the U.S. Department of Energy in 1986 by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory and is documented in the Wind Energy Resource Atlas of the United

  6. Computers for artificial intelligence a technology assessment and forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, R.K.

    1986-01-01

    This study reviews the development and current state-of-the-art in computers for artificial intelligence, including LISP machines, AI workstations, professional and engineering workstations, minicomputers, mainframes, and supercomputers. Major computer systems for AI applications are reviewed. The use of personal computers for expert system development is discussed, and AI software for the IBM PC, Texas Instrument Professional Computer, and Apple MacIntosh is presented. Current research aimed at developing a new computer for artificial intelligence is described, and future technological developments are discussed.

  7. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  8. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  9. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  10. SNL-CRCV Map-580 to CRCV

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    to be badged Sandia National Laboratories 7011 East Avenue Livermore, CA 94551 Parking Tesla Road CRF Parking 904 906 From OaklandSan Francisco Map Not to Scale Map Not to Scale...

  11. A Designed Protein Maps Brain Activity

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    A Designed Protein Maps Brain Activity A Designed Protein Maps Brain Activity Print Wednesday, 28 October 2015 00:00 A team of scientists from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute's ...

  12. Google Crisis Map for Hurricane Sandy

    K-12 Energy Lesson Plans and Activities Web site (EERE)

    The Google Crisis Map has power outage information, shelter and recovery centers, local emergency Twitter feeds, FEMA disaster declared areas and more. | This map is created and maintained by...

  13. Google maps | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    queries developer Google maps maps multicolor result formats results Semantic Mediawiki Hi all, Recently, a couple of people on OpenEI have asked me how to do compound (or...

  14. Hawaii geologic map data | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    geologic map data Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Web Site: Hawaii geologic map data Published USGS, Date Not Provided DOI Not Provided Check for...

  15. Form:MapFile | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    below to add to OpenEI. If the map is already in the database, you will be able to edit its existing information. AddEdit Map Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgw...

  16. Maps

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Outreach Doing Business Expand Doing Business Skip navigation links Newsroom About Us Civil Rights - EEO Freedom of Information Act Investor Relations Library Privacy...

  17. Maps

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    is located in Northern New Mexico about 35 miles (about 40 minutes drive) northwest of Santa Fe and 1 hour and 45 minutes drive from Albuquerque. Contact LANL Directory 667-5061...

  18. MAP

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Cray machines, we recommend the -G2 option. Below we show build instructions using a Fortran case, but the C or C++ usage is the same. On Babbage The libraries are built and...

  19. Preliminary Correlation Map of Geomorphic Surfaces in North-Central Frenchman Flat, Nevada Test Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bechtel Nevada

    2005-08-01

    This correlation map (scale = 1:12,000) presents the results of a mapping initiative that was part of the comprehensive site characterization required to operate the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site, a low-level radioactive waste disposal facility located in northern Frenchman Flat at the Nevada Test Site. Eight primary map units are recognized for Quaternary surfaces: remnants of six alluvial fan or terrace surfaces, one unit that includes colluvial aprons associated with hill slopes, and one unit for anthropogenically disturbed surfaces. This surficial geology map provides fundamental data on natural processes for reconstruction of the Quaternary history of northern Frenchman Flat, which in turn will aid in the understanding of the natural processes that act to develop the landscape, and the time-frames involved in landscape development. The mapping was conducted using color and color-infrared aerial photographs and field verification of map unit composition and boundaries. Criteria for defining the map unit composition of geomorphic surface units are based on relative geomorphic position, landform morphology, and degree of preservation of surface morphology. The bedrock units identified on this map were derived from previous published mapping efforts and are included for completeness.

  20. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    4 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ Bartholomew S Giangrande March 2016 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or

  1. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  2. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  3. doe sc arm 16 025 The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL_formatted

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    5 Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report MP Jensen SE Giangrande MJ Bartholomew April 2016 CLIMATE RESEARCH FACILITY DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any

  4. Eastern Energy Zones Mapping Tool

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Eastern Interconnection States’ Planning Council (EISPC) has released the Energy Zones (EZ) Mapping Tool, a free, web-based interactive tool that will help states and other stakeholders in the Eastern Interconnection identify geographic areas suitable for the development of clean energy resources (natural gas, sequestration or utilitization locations for C02 from coal, nuclear, and renewable) which can potentially provide significant amounts of new electric power generation.

  5. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  6. EJSCREEN: Environmental Justice Screening and Mapping Tool

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    EJSCREEN is an environmental justice mapping and screening tool provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

  7. Nanoscale Strain Maps Inside a Metal

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fensin, Saryu Jindal; Sandberg, Richard L.

    2015-11-03

    This report offers a description about the 3D strain mapping of small crystals using nanometer scale images.

  8. NREL: Measurements and Characterization - Scanning Defect Mapping

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Defect Mapping Using optical scattering in the scanning defect mapping system (SDMS) produces a way to quickly identify and map defect distributions in silicon semiconductor wafers. In this process, a wafer is first treated with a National-Renewable-Energy-Laboratory-developed etch of hydrofluoric, acetic, and nitric acids to enhance the light scattered by the defects. The SDMS moves the treated wafer across a stationary laser beam and maps the defects for each location on the wafer. The amount

  9. Geographic Resource Map of Frozen Pipe Probabilities

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation slide details a resource map showing the probability of frozen pipes in the geographic United States.

  10. Field Mapping (Healy, 1970) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    to: navigation, search GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGeothermal Home Exploration Activity: Field Mapping (Healy, 1970) Exploration Activity Details Location Unspecified Exploration Technique...

  11. MapReduce SVM Game

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Vineyard, Craig M.; Verzi, Stephen J.; James, Conrad D.; Aimone, James B.; Heileman, Gregory L.

    2015-08-10

    Despite technological advances making computing devices faster, smaller, and more prevalent in today's age, data generation and collection has outpaced data processing capabilities. Simply having more compute platforms does not provide a means of addressing challenging problems in the big data era. Rather, alternative processing approaches are needed and the application of machine learning to big data is hugely important. The MapReduce programming paradigm is an alternative to conventional supercomputing approaches, and requires less stringent data passing constrained problem decompositions. Rather, MapReduce relies upon defining a means of partitioning the desired problem so that subsets may be computed independently andmore » recom- bined to yield the net desired result. However, not all machine learning algorithms are amenable to such an approach. Game-theoretic algorithms are often innately distributed, consisting of local interactions between players without requiring a central authority and are iterative by nature rather than requiring extensive retraining. Effectively, a game-theoretic approach to machine learning is well suited for the MapReduce paradigm and provides a novel, alternative new perspective to addressing the big data problem. In this paper we present a variant of our Support Vector Machine (SVM) Game classifier which may be used in a distributed manner, and show an illustrative example of applying this algorithm.« less

  12. MapReduce SVM Game

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vineyard, Craig M.; Verzi, Stephen J.; James, Conrad D.; Aimone, James B.; Heileman, Gregory L.

    2015-08-10

    Despite technological advances making computing devices faster, smaller, and more prevalent in today's age, data generation and collection has outpaced data processing capabilities. Simply having more compute platforms does not provide a means of addressing challenging problems in the big data era. Rather, alternative processing approaches are needed and the application of machine learning to big data is hugely important. The MapReduce programming paradigm is an alternative to conventional supercomputing approaches, and requires less stringent data passing constrained problem decompositions. Rather, MapReduce relies upon defining a means of partitioning the desired problem so that subsets may be computed independently and recom- bined to yield the net desired result. However, not all machine learning algorithms are amenable to such an approach. Game-theoretic algorithms are often innately distributed, consisting of local interactions between players without requiring a central authority and are iterative by nature rather than requiring extensive retraining. Effectively, a game-theoretic approach to machine learning is well suited for the MapReduce paradigm and provides a novel, alternative new perspective to addressing the big data problem. In this paper we present a variant of our Support Vector Machine (SVM) Game classifier which may be used in a distributed manner, and show an illustrative example of applying this algorithm.

  13. Methods for enhancing mapping of thermal fronts in oil recovery

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lee, D.O.; Montoya, P.C.; Wayland, J.R. Jr.

    1984-03-30

    A method for enhancing the resistivity contrasts of a thermal front in an oil recovery production field as measured by the controlled source audio frequency magnetotelluric (CSAMT) technique is disclosed. This method includes the steps of: (1) preparing a CSAMT-determined topological resistivity map of the production field; (2) introducing a solution of a dopant material into the production field at a concentration effective to alter the resistivity associated with the thermal front; said dopant material having a high cation exchange capacity which might be selected from the group consisting of montmorillonite, illite, and chlorite clays; said material being soluble in the conate water of the production field; (3) preparing a CSAMT-determined topological resistivity map of the production field while said dopant material is moving therethrough; and (4) mathematically comparing the maps from step (1) and step (3) to determine the location of the thermal front. This method is effective with the steam flood, fire flood and water flood techniques.

  14. Methods for enhancing mapping of thermal fronts in oil recovery

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lee, David O.; Montoya, Paul C.; Wayland, Jr., James R.

    1987-01-01

    A method for enhancing the resistivity contrasts of a thermal front in an oil recovery production field as measured by the CSAMT technique is disclosed. This method includes the steps of: (a) preparing a CSAMT-determined topological resistivity map of the production field; (b) introducing a solution of a dopant material into the production field at a concentration effective to alter the resistivity associated with the thermal front; said dopant material having a high cation exchange capacity which might be selected from the group consisting of montmorillonite, illite, and chlorite clays; said material being soluble in the connate water of the production field; (c) preparing a CSAMT-determined topological resistivity map of the production field while said dopant material is moving therethrough; and (d) mathematically comparing the maps from step (a) and step (c) to determine the location of the thermal front. This method is effective with the steam flood, fire flood and water flood techniques.

  15. Nuclear Arms Control R&D Consortium includes Los Alamos

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Nuclear Arms Control R&D Consortium includes Los Alamos Nuclear Arms Control R&D Consortium includes Los Alamos A consortium led by the University of Michigan that includes LANL as ...

  16. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  17. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  18. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  19. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  20. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  1. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  2. Natural Gas Delivered to Consumers in Minnesota (Including Vehicle...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Minnesota (Including Vehicle Fuel) (Million Cubic Feet) Natural Gas Delivered to Consumers in Minnesota (Including Vehicle Fuel) (Million Cubic Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun ...

  3. Trends and challenges when including microstructure in materials...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Trends and challenges when including microstructure in materials modeling: Examples of ... Title: Trends and challenges when including microstructure in materials modeling: Examples ...

  4. Solar Energy Education. Reader, Part II. Sun story. [Includes...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Reader, Part II. Sun story. Includes glossary Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Solar Energy Education. Reader, Part II. Sun story. Includes glossary You are ...

  5. Natural Gas Delivered to Consumers in California (Including Vehicle...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    California (Including Vehicle Fuel) (Million Cubic Feet) Natural Gas Delivered to Consumers in California (Including Vehicle Fuel) (Million Cubic Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun ...

  6. Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths ...

  7. Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths Title: Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths Microfluidic devices and methods ...

  8. Newport News in Review, ch. 47, segment includes TEDF groundbreaking...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    https:www.jlab.orgnewsarticlesnewport-news-review-ch-47-segment-includes-tedf-groundbreaking-event Newport News in Review, ch. 47, segment includes TEDF groundbreaking event...

  9. Property:Number of Plants included in Capacity Estimate | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Plants included in Capacity Estimate Jump to: navigation, search Property Name Number of Plants included in Capacity Estimate Property Type Number Retrieved from "http:...

  10. Property:Number of Plants Included in Planned Estimate | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Number of Plants Included in Planned Estimate Jump to: navigation, search Property Name Number of Plants Included in Planned Estimate Property Type String Description Number of...

  11. FEMP Expands ESPC ENABLE Program to Include More Energy Conservation...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Expands ESPC ENABLE Program to Include More Energy Conservation Measures FEMP Expands ESPC ENABLE Program to Include More Energy Conservation Measures November 13, 2013 - 12:00am...

  12. Should Title 24 Ventilation Requirements Be Amended to include...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    include an Indoor Air Quality Procedure? Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Should Title 24 Ventilation Requirements Be Amended to include an Indoor Air Quality Procedure? ...

  13. Map: Explore the National Labs | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Map by Daniel Wood.

  14. CanGEA Fifth Annual Geothermal Conference Presentation - Mapping...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    CanGEA Fifth Annual Geothermal Conference Presentation - Mapping & Database Workshop CanGEA Fifth Annual Geothermal Conference Presentation - Mapping & Database Workshop Mapping ...

  15. Smart Grid Investment Grants: Map of Projects | Department of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Grants: Map of Projects Smart Grid Investment Grants: Map of Projects Map showing the distribution of project types awarded across the United States through the Smart Grid ...

  16. Building Technologies Office Projects Map | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Building Technologies Office Projects Map Building Technologies Office Projects Map Welcome to the Building Technologies Office Projects Map. Here you will find listings for our ...

  17. Apparatus and method for mapping an area of interest

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Staab, Torsten A. Cohen, Daniel L.; Feller, Samuel

    2009-12-01

    An apparatus and method are provided for mapping an area of interest using polar coordinates or Cartesian coordinates. The apparatus includes a range finder, an azimuth angle measuring device to provide a heading and an inclinometer to provide an angle of inclination of the range finder as it relates to primary reference points and points of interest. A computer is provided to receive signals from the range finder, inclinometer and azimuth angle measurer to record location data and calculate relative locations between one or more points of interest and one or more primary reference points. The method includes mapping of an area of interest to locate points of interest relative to one or more primary reference points and to store the information in the desired manner. The device may optionally also include an illuminator which can be utilized to paint the area of interest to indicate both points of interest and primary points of reference during and/or after data acquisition.

  18. Systems and methods that generate height map models for efficient three dimensional reconstruction from depth information

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Frahm, Jan-Michael; Pollefeys, Marc Andre Leon; Gallup, David Robert

    2015-12-08

    Methods of generating a three dimensional representation of an object in a reference plane from a depth map including distances from a reference point to pixels in an image of the object taken from a reference point. Weights are assigned to respective voxels in a three dimensional grid along rays extending from the reference point through the pixels in the image based on the distances in the depth map from the reference point to the respective pixels, and a height map including an array of height values in the reference plane is formed based on the assigned weights. An n-layer height map may be constructed by generating a probabilistic occupancy grid for the voxels and forming an n-dimensional height map comprising an array of layer height values in the reference plane based on the probabilistic occupancy grid.

  19. System and method for generating a deselect mapping for a focal plane array

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bixler, Jay V; Brandt, Timothy G; Conger, James L; Lawson, Janice K

    2013-05-21

    A method for generating a deselect mapping for a focal plane array according to one embodiment includes gathering a data set for a focal plane array when exposed to light or radiation from a first known target; analyzing the data set for determining which pixels or subpixels of the focal plane array to add to a deselect mapping; adding the pixels or subpixels to the deselect mapping based on the analysis; and storing the deselect mapping. A method for gathering data using a focal plane array according to another embodiment includes deselecting pixels or subpixels based on a deselect mapping; gathering a data set using pixels or subpixels in a focal plane array that are not deselected upon exposure thereof to light or radiation from a target of interest; and outputting the data set.

  20. Metrics for comparison of crystallographic maps

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Urzhumtsev, Alexandre; Afonine, Pavel V.; Lunin, Vladimir Y.; Terwilliger, Thomas C.; Adams, Paul D.

    2014-10-01

    Numerical comparison of crystallographic contour maps is used extensively in structure solution and model refinement, analysis and validation. However, traditional metrics such as the map correlation coefficient (map CC, real-space CC or RSCC) sometimes contradict the results of visual assessment of the corresponding maps. This article explains such apparent contradictions and suggests new metrics and tools to compare crystallographic contour maps. The key to the new methods is rank scaling of the Fourier syntheses. The new metrics are complementary to the usual map CC and can be more helpful in map comparison, in particular when only some of their aspects,more » such as regions of high density, are of interest.« less

  1. AreaMapWeb copy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ORNL ETTP CITY OF OAK RIDGE MAP AREA (below) 170 170 62 162 162 62 62 61 61 62 61 95 95 61 61 58 95 62 129 321 411 411 321 321 129 11W 11E 11 70 11 11 70 11 11 70 70 40 40 140 140 40 75 40 40 40 640 640 75 75 75 75 61 62 ALCOA MARYVILLE LENOIR CITY FARRAGUT LOUDON OLIVER SPRINGS OAK RIDGE KNOXVILLE AIRPORT McGhee Tyson Municipal Airport (Knoxville Airport) Route between Knoxville Airport, Downtown Knoxville, and Oak Ridge area Take left lane for I-40 West to Nashville, Chattanooga No. 376A Oak

  2. Natural Gas Delivered to Consumers in New Mexico (Including Vehicle...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Mexico (Including Vehicle Fuel) (Million Cubic Feet) Natural Gas Delivered to Consumers in New Mexico (Including Vehicle Fuel) (Million Cubic Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul ...

  3. SWS Online Tool now includes Multifamily Content, plus a How...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    SWS Online Tool now includes Multifamily Content, plus a How-To Webinar SWS Online Tool now includes Multifamily Content, plus a How-To Webinar This announcement contains ...

  4. Energy Department Expands Gas Gouging Reporting System to Include...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Expands Gas Gouging Reporting System to Include 1-800 Number: 1-800-244-3301 Energy Department Expands Gas Gouging Reporting System to Include 1-800 Number: 1-800-244-3301 ...

  5. CanGEA Fifth Annual Geothermal Conference Presentation - Mapping...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Mapping and Energy & Water Life Cycle Analysis http:... Conference, "Digging Deep" Mapping & Database Workshop ... Stanford Reservoir Engineering Oregon Institute of ...

  6. Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Patent) | DOEPatents Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths Title: Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths are described. Polymerization techniques may be used to generate porous polymer monoliths having pores defined by a liquid component of a fluid mixture. The fluid mixture may contain iniferters and the resulting porous polymer monolith may include surfaces

  7. President's FY 2017 Budget Includes $878 Million for Fossil Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Programs | Department of Energy President's FY 2017 Budget Includes $878 Million for Fossil Energy Programs President's FY 2017 Budget Includes $878 Million for Fossil Energy Programs February 9, 2016 - 2:33pm Addthis President Obama's Fiscal Year (FY) 2017 Budget includes a programmatic level of $878 million for the Office of Fossil Energy (FE), including the use of $240 million in prior year funds, to advance technologies related to the reliable, efficient, affordable and environmentally

  8. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID tomore » build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.« less

  9. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.

  10. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  11. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  12. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  13. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.

  14. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOE/SC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ Bartholomew S Giangrande March 2016 CLIMATE RESEARCH FACILITY DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy,

  15. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  16. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    7a. Space Heating by Census Region and Climate Zone, Million U.S. Households, 1993 Space Heating Characteristics RSE Column Factor: Total Census Region Climate Zone RSE Row Factors Northeast Midwest South West Fewer than 2,000 CDD and -- More than 2,000 CDD and Few- er than 4,000 HDD More than 7,000 HDD 5,500 to 7,000 HDD 4,000 to 5,499 HDD Few- er than 4,000 HDD 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Total ................................................. 96.6 19.5 23.3 33.5 20.4 8.7 26.5

  17. Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    introduction in 1992 of an American-made truck with a fully factory-installed/war- ranted liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) engine represents another "Ford first" in the alternative fuel arena. Now the company has introduced an LPG- powered F-700, a medium/heavy- duty truck. According to Tom Steckel, Ford's medium-duty marketing man- ager, Ford's latest sales figures already prove the alternative fuel F-700's popularity. With a little more than 10 months of the model year finished, Ford

  18. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  19. Infrared Mapping Helps Optimize Catalytic Reactions

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Infrared Mapping Helps Optimize Catalytic Reactions Infrared Mapping Helps Optimize Catalytic Reactions Print Wednesday, 20 August 2014 07:59 A pathway to more effective and efficient synthesis of pharmaceuticals and other flow-reactor chemical products has been opened by a study in which, for the first time, the catalytic reactivity inside a microreactor was mapped in high resolution from start to finish. The formation of different chemical products during the reactions was analyzed in situ

  20. Percentage of Total Natural Gas Industrial Deliveries included in Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Pipeline and Distribution Use Price City Gate Price Residential Price Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices Commercial Price Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices Industrial Price Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices Vehicle Fuel Price Electric Power Price Period: Monthly Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Show Data By: Data Series Area 2010

  1. Percentage of Total Natural Gas Industrial Deliveries included in Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    City Gate Price Residential Price Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices Commercial Price Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices Industrial Price Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices Electric Power Price Period: Monthly Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Show Data By: Data Series Area Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 View History U.S.

  2. Percentage of Total Natural Gas Residential Deliveries included in Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    City Gate Price Residential Price Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices Commercial Price Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices Industrial Price Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices Electric Power Price Period: Monthly Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Show Data By: Data Series Area Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 View History U.S.

  3. Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Patent) | SciTech Connect Patent: Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths are described. Polymerization techniques may be used to generate porous polymer monoliths having pores defined by a liquid component of a fluid mixture. The fluid mixture may contain iniferters and the resulting

  4. Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Patent) | SciTech Connect Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths are described. Polymerization techniques may be used to generate porous polymer monoliths having pores defined by a liquid component of a fluid mixture. The fluid mixture may contain iniferters and the resulting porous

  5. Percentage of Total Natural Gas Commercial Deliveries included in Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    City Gate Price Residential Price Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices Commercial Price Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices Industrial Price Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices Electric Power Price Period: Monthly Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Show Data By: Data Series Area Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 View History U.S.

  6. Digital Mapping Of Structurally Controlled Geothermal Features...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    GPS Units And Pocket Computers Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Conference Paper: Digital Mapping Of Structurally Controlled Geothermal Features...

  7. POST 10/Truck Inspection Station (Map 3

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Station (Map 3) Changes Effective January 11, 2010 Pajarito Corridor Deliveries: Drivers of commercial delivery trucks headed to the Pajarito Corridor (Pajarito Road bounded...

  8. Tribal Energy Projects Map | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and demonstrated the viability of installing renewable energy systems on tribal lands. Filter the map and table below by state, technology, or project category, or search for a ...

  9. Mapping Hydrothermal Upwelling and Outflow Zones: Preliminary...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    temperature anomaly has been mapped. A group of subtle temperature anomalies along Simpson Pass, south of the current production area, are interpreted as an upwelling zone with...

  10. OutageMapURL Phases Energy Services

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    OutageMapURL Phases Energy Services County Electric Power Assn http outages county org A N Electric Coop Virginia AEP Generating Company https www aepaccount com zipr...

  11. APS Map | Overview | Advanced Photon Source

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    technical facility: the linear accelerator, the booster synchrotron, the electron storage ring, insertion devices, and the experiment hall. APS systems map Next: Linear Accelerator...

  12. Digital Mapping Of Structurally Controlled Geothermal Features...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    : GRC; p. () Related Geothermal Exploration Activities Activities (1) Field Mapping At Brady Hot Springs Area (Coolbaugh, Et Al., 2004) Areas (1) Brady Hot Springs Area Regions...

  13. Mapping Particle Charges in Battery Electrodes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Mapping Particle Charges in Battery Electrodes Print The deceivingly simple appearance of batteries masks their chemical complexity. A typical lithium-ion battery in a cell phone...

  14. Utility Data Accessibility Map | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    utility company to see your electricity data access options. Select the Benchmarking or Demand ResponseEnergy Efficiency map to find out whether your utility provides sufficient...

  15. Maps: Exploration, Resources, Reserves, and Production - Energy...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    ... Pursuant to Section 604 of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, these maps are one ... button graphic button graphic Greater Green River Basin button graphic button graphic ...

  16. Spatially Resolved Quantitative Mapping for Thermal Analysis...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Spatially Resolved Quantitative Mapping for Thermal Analysis Using Scanning Probe Microscopy ... This technique probes thermomechanical properties and phase transition temperatures of ...

  17. NREL: Wind Research - International Wind Resource Maps

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    International Wind Resource Maps NREL is helping to develop high-resolution projections of wind resources worldwide. This allows for more accurate siting of wind turbines and has ...

  18. Energy Citations Database (ECD) - Site Map

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Site Map Home Basic Search Fielded Search Document Availability About ECD Help FAQ Contact Us Website Policies and Important Links Alerts Log On Alerts Registration Alerts Help...

  19. Comparison of Joint Modeling Approaches Including Eulerian Sliding...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Eulerian Sliding Interfaces Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Comparison of Joint Modeling Approaches Including Eulerian Sliding Interfaces You are accessing a ...

  20. Systematic expansion of porous crystals to include large molecules | Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    for Gas SeparationsRelevant to Clean Energy Technologies | Blandine Jerome Systematic expansion of porous crystals to include large molecules

  1. Natural Gas Deliveries to Commercial Consumers (Including Vehicle...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    California (Million Cubic Feet) Natural Gas Deliveries to Commercial Consumers (Including Vehicle Fuel through 1996) in California (Million Cubic Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun ...

  2. METHOD OF FABRICATING ELECTRODES INCLUDING HIGH-CAPACITY, BINDER...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    METHOD OF FABRICATING ELECTRODES INCLUDING HIGH-CAPACITY, BINDER-FREE ANODES FOR LITHIUM-I... Binderless Electrodes for Rechargeable Lithium Batteries Abstract: An electrode (110) is ...

  3. Including Retro-Commissioning in Federal Energy Savings Performance Contracts

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Document describes guidance on the importance of (and steps to) including retro-commissioning in federal energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs).

  4. Numerical simulations for low energy nuclear reactions including...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Numerical simulations for low energy nuclear reactions including direct channels to ... Visit OSTI to utilize additional information resources in energy science and technology. A ...

  5. Numerical simulations for low energy nuclear reactions including...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    energy nuclear reactions including direct channels to validate statistical models Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Numerical simulations for low energy nuclear reactions ...

  6. Introduction to Small-Scale Photovoltaic Systems (Including RETScreen...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Photovoltaic Systems (Including RETScreen Case Study) (Webinar) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Introduction to Small-Scale Photovoltaic Systems...

  7. Introduction to Small-Scale Wind Energy Systems (Including RETScreen...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Case Study) (Webinar) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Introduction to Small-Scale Wind Energy Systems (Including RETScreen Case Study) (Webinar) Focus...

  8. DOE Releases Request for Information on Critical Materials, Including...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    sector, including fuel cell platinum group metal catalysts. The RFI is soliciting feedback from industry, academia, research laboratories, government agencies, and other ...

  9. SWS Online Tool now includes Multifamily Content, plus a How...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Future updates will include: a how-to video and a Spanish translation of the Standard Work Specifications for Multifamily Housing. Webinar: Using the Standard Work Specifications ...

  10. U-182: Microsoft Windows Includes Some Invalid Certificates

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The operating system includes some invalid intermediate certificates. The vulnerability is due to the certificate authorities and not the operating system itself.

  11. InMAP: a new model for air pollution interventions

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Tessum, C. W.; Hill, J. D.; Marshall, J. D.

    2015-10-29

    Mechanistic air pollution models are essential tools in air quality management. Widespread use of such models is hindered, however, by the extensive expertise or computational resources needed to run most models. Here, we present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical andmorechemical information from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model (WRF-Chem) within an Eulerian modeling framework, to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. InMAP uses a variable resolution grid that focuses on human exposures by employing higher spatial resolution in urban areas and lower spatial resolution in rural and remote locations and in the upper atmosphere; and by directly calculating steady-state, annual average concentrations. In comparisons run here, InMAP recreates WRF-Chem predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional error (MFE) and bias (MFB) R2 ~ 0.99. Among individual PM2.5 species, the best predictive performance is for primary PM2.5 (MFE: 16 %; MFB: 13 %) and the worst predictive performance is for particulate nitrate (MFE: 119 %; MFB: 106 %). Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. Features planned for future model releases include a larger spatial domain, more temporal information, and the ability to predict ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online.less

  12. Using E-beam Mapping to Detect Coil Misalignment in NCSX

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fredrickson, E.; Georgiyevskiy, A.; Rudakov, V.; Zarnstorff, M. C.

    2005-10-18

    Following assembly of the NCSX device, a program of e-beam mapping experiments is planned to validate the accuracy of the construction and assembly of the NCSX coil systems. To aid in the development of requirements for the e-beam mapping hardware and machine requirements, simulations of the e-beam mapping experiments, including various coil misalignments, have been done. The magnetic flux surface configuration was constructed using a numerical code, based on the Biot-Savart law, to calculate the magnetic field components and trace the field line trajectory many times around the torus. Magnetic surfaces are then mapped by recording the field line intersections with toroidal cross-sections of the magnetic system, much as in an actual e-beam mapping experiment.

  13. Solar Energy Education. Reader, Part II. Sun story. [Includes glossary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-01

    Magazine articles which focus on the subject of solar energy are presented. The booklet prepared is the second of a four part series of the Solar Energy Reader. Excerpts from the magazines include the history of solar energy, mythology and tales, and selected poetry on the sun. A glossary of energy related terms is included. (BCS)

  14. Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hatch, Anson V.; Sommer, Gregory J.; Singh, Anup K.; Wang, Ying-Chih; Abhyankar, Vinay

    2015-12-01

    Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths are described. Polymerization techniques may be used to generate porous polymer monoliths having pores defined by a liquid component of a fluid mixture. The fluid mixture may contain iniferters and the resulting porous polymer monolith may include surfaces terminated with iniferter species. Capture molecules may then be grafted to the monolith pores.

  15. Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hatch, Anson V; Sommer, Gregory J; Singh, Anup K; Wang, Ying-Chih; Abhyankar, Vinay V

    2014-04-22

    Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths are described. Polymerization techniques may be used to generate porous polymer monoliths having pores defined by a liquid component of a fluid mixture. The fluid mixture may contain iniferters and the resulting porous polymer monolith may include surfaces terminated with iniferter species. Capture molecules may then be grafted to the monolith pores.

  16. Articles which include chevron film cooling holes, and related processes

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bunker, Ronald Scott; Lacy, Benjamin Paul

    2014-12-09

    An article is described, including an inner surface which can be exposed to a first fluid; an inlet; and an outer surface spaced from the inner surface, which can be exposed to a hotter second fluid. The article further includes at least one row or other pattern of passage holes. Each passage hole includes an inlet bore extending through the substrate from the inlet at the inner surface to a passage hole-exit proximate to the outer surface, with the inlet bore terminating in a chevron outlet adjacent the hole-exit. The chevron outlet includes a pair of wing troughs having a common surface region between them. The common surface region includes a valley which is adjacent the hole-exit; and a plateau adjacent the valley. The article can be an airfoil. Related methods for preparing the passage holes are also described.

  17. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  18. Turbomachine injection nozzle including a coolant delivery system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Zuo, Baifang (Simpsonville, SC)

    2012-02-14

    An injection nozzle for a turbomachine includes a main body having a first end portion that extends to a second end portion defining an exterior wall having an outer surface. A plurality of fluid delivery tubes extend through the main body. Each of the plurality of fluid delivery tubes includes a first fluid inlet for receiving a first fluid, a second fluid inlet for receiving a second fluid and an outlet. The injection nozzle further includes a coolant delivery system arranged within the main body. The coolant delivery system guides a coolant along at least one of a portion of the exterior wall and around the plurality of fluid delivery tubes.

  19. Webinar: EISPC Energy Zones Mapping Tool Demonstration

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Argonne National Laboratory has organized a webinar demonstration of the Eastern Interconnection States’ Planning Council (EISPC) Energy Zones (EZ) Mapping Tool, a free online mapping tool for identifying areas in all 39 EISPC states that may be suitable for new clean power generation. The tool is maintained by Argonne National Laboratory with funding from the U.S. Department of Energy.

  20. Current trends in mapping human genes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mckusick, V.A. )

    1991-01-01

    The human is estimated to have at least 50,000 expressed genes (gene loci). Some information is available concerning about 5,000 of these gene loci and about 1,900 have been mapped, i.e., assigned to specific chromosomes (and in most instances particular chromosome regions). Progress has been achieved by a combination of physical mapping (e.g., study of somatic cell hybrids and chromosomal in situ hybridization) and genetic mapping (e.g., genetic linkage studies). New methods for both physical and genetic mapping are expanding the armamentarium. The usefulness of the mapping information is already evident; the spin-off from the Human Genome Project (HGP) begins immediately. the complete nucleotide sequence is the ultimate map of the human genome. Sequencing, although already under way for limited segments of the genome, will await further progress in gene mapping, and in particular creation of contig maps for each chromosome. Meanwhile the technology of sequencing and sequence information handling will be developed.