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Sample records for improve climate models

  1. ARM Data Help Improve Precipitation in Global Climate Models...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    ARM Data Help Improve Precipitation in Global Climate Models Biological and Environmental ... ARM Data Help Improve Precipitation in Global Climate Models Cloud, radiation, and drizzle ...

  2. Improvement of snowpack simulations in a regional climate model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jin, J.; Miller, N.L.

    2011-01-10

    To improve simulations of regional-scale snow processes and related cold-season hydroclimate, the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3), developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), was coupled with the Pennsylvania State University/NCAR fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). CLM3 physically describes the mass and heat transfer within the snowpack using five snow layers that include liquid water and solid ice. The coupled MM5CLM3 model performance was evaluated for the snowmelt season in the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwestern United States using gridded temperature and precipitation observations, along with station observations. The results from MM5CLM3 show a significant improvement in the SWE simulation, which has been underestimated in the original version of MM5 coupled with the Noah land-surface model. One important cause for the underestimated SWE in Noah is its unrealistic land-surface structure configuration where vegetation, snow and the topsoil layer are blended when snow is present. This study demonstrates the importance of the sheltering effects of the forest canopy on snow surface energy budgets, which is included in CLM3. Such effects are further seen in the simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation in regional weather and climate models such as MM5. In addition, the snow-season surface albedo overestimated by MM5Noah is now more accurately predicted by MM5CLM3 using a more realistic albedo algorithm that intensifies the solar radiation absorption on the land surface, reducing the strong near-surface cold bias in MM5Noah. The cold bias is further alleviated due to a slower snowmelt rate in MM5CLM3 during the early snowmelt stage, which is closer to observations than the comparable components of MM5Noah. In addition, the over-predicted precipitation in the Pacific Northwest as shown in MM5Noah is significantly decreased in MM5 CLM3 due to the lower evaporation resulting from the longer snow

  3. LASSO: Tying ARM Data and LES Modeling Together to Improve Climate Science

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    LASSO: Tying ARM Data and LES Modeling Together to Improve Climate Science New Routine Modeling The pilot modeling project, called LASSO-the LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation workflow-is laying the groundwork to produce routine LES modeling at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) megasite starting in 2017. The initial LASSO implementation will target shallow clouds and will later expand to other phenomena and ARM sites. A key to creating the next-generation Atmospheric Radiation

  4. Global Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable ... Climate & Earth Systems Climate Measurement & Modeling Arctic Climate Measurements Global ...

  5. Refining climate models

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Warren, Jeff; Iversen, Colleen; Brooks, Jonathan; Ricciuto, Daniel

    2014-06-26

    Using dogwood trees, Oak Ridge National Laboratory researchers are gaining a better understanding of the role photosynthesis and respiration play in the atmospheric carbon dioxide cycle. Their findings will aid computer modelers in improving the accuracy of climate simulations.

  6. Refining climate models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Warren, Jeff; Iversen, Colleen; Brooks, Jonathan; Ricciuto, Daniel

    2012-10-31

    Using dogwood trees, Oak Ridge National Laboratory researchers are gaining a better understanding of the role photosynthesis and respiration play in the atmospheric carbon dioxide cycle. Their findings will aid computer modelers in improving the accuracy of climate simulations.

  7. Improved atmosphere-ocean coupled modeling in the tropics for climate prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Minghua

    2015-01-01

    We investigated the initial development of the double ITCZ in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM Version 3) in the central Pacific. Starting from a resting initial condition of the ocean in January, the model developed a warm bias of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the central Pacific from 5oS to 10oS in the first three months. We found this initial bias to be caused by excessive surface shortwave radiation that is also present in the standalone atmospheric model. The initial bias is further amplified by biases in both surface latent heat flux and horizontal heat transport in the upper ocean. These biases are caused by the responses of surface winds to SST bias and the thermocline structure to surface wind curls. We also showed that the warming biases in surface solar radiation and latent heat fluxes are seasonally offset by cooling biases from reduced solar radiation after the austral summer due to cloud responses and in the austral fall due to enhanced evaporation when the maximum SST is closest to the equator. The warming biases from the dynamic heat transport by ocean currents however stay throughout all seasons once they are developed, which are eventually balanced by enhanced energy exchange and penetration of solar radiation below the mixed layer. Our results also showed that the equatorial cold tongue develops after the warm biases in the south central Pacific, and the overestimation of surface shortwave radiation recurs in the austral summer in each year.

  8. Improved Climate Model Simulations of Clouds | U.S. DOE Office...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    in many regions, the strength and variability of atmospheric circulations, and the magnitude of climate changes resulting from perturbations in atmospheric chemical composition. ...

  9. Global distribution and climate forcing of marine organic aerosol: 1. Model improvements and evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meskhidze, N.; Xu, J.; Gantt, Brett; Zhang, Yang; Nenes, Athanasios; Ghan, Steven J.; Liu, Xiaohong; Easter, Richard C.; Zaveri, Rahul A.

    2011-11-23

    -salt provides diverse results with increases and decreases in the concentration of CCN over different parts of the ocean. The sign of the CCN change due to the addition of marine organics to seasalt aerosol is determined by the relative significance of the increase in mean modal diameter due to addition of mass, and the decrease in particle hygroscopicity due to compositional changes in marine aerosol. Based on emerging evidence for increased CCN concentration over biologically active surface ocean areas/periods, our study suggests that treatment of sea spray in global climate models (GCMs) as an internal mixture of marine organic aerosols and sea-salt will likely lead to an underestimation in CCN number concentration.

  10. Final scientific report for DOE award title: Improving the Representation of Ice Sedimentation Rates in Global Climate Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mitchell, David L.

    2013-09-05

    It is well known that cirrus clouds play a major role in regulating the earth’s climate, but the details of how this works are just beginning to be understood. This project targeted the main property of cirrus clouds that influence climate processes; the ice fall speed. That is, this project improves the representation of the mass-weighted ice particle fall velocity, Vm, in climate models, used to predict future climate on global and regional scales. Prior to 2007, the dominant sizes of ice particles in cirrus clouds were poorly understood, making it virtually impossible to predict how cirrus clouds interact with sunlight and thermal radiation. Due to several studies investigating the performance of optical probes used to measure the ice particle size distribution (PSD), as well as the remote sensing results from our last ARM project, it is now well established that the anomalously high concentrations of small ice crystals often reported prior to 2007 were measurement artifacts. Advances in the design and data processing of optical probes have greatly reduced these ice artifacts that resulted from the shattering of ice particles on the probe tips and/or inlet tube, and PSD measurements from one of these improved probes (the 2-dimensional Stereo or 2D-S probe) are utilized in this project to parameterize Vm for climate models. Our original plan in the proposal was to parameterize the ice PSD (in terms of temperature and ice water content) and ice particle mass and projected area (in terms of mass- and area-dimensional power laws or m-D/A-D expressions) since these are the microphysical properties that determine Vm, and then proceed to calculate Vm from these parameterized properties. But the 2D-S probe directly measures ice particle projected area and indirectly estimates ice particle mass for each size bin. It soon became apparent that the original plan would introduce more uncertainty in the Vm calculations

  11. Regional Climate Modeling: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Yuqing; Leung, Lai R.; McGregor, John L.; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Ding, Yihui; Kimura, Fujio

    2004-12-01

    Regional climate modeling with regional climate models (RCMs) has matured over the past decade and allows for meaningful utilization in a broad spectrum of applications. In this paper, latest progresses in regional climate modeling studies are reviewed, including RCM development, applications of RCMs to dynamical downscaling for climate change assessment, seasonal climate predictions and climate process studies, and the study of regional climate predictability. Challenges and potential directions of future research in this important area are discussed, with the focus on those to which less attention has been given previously, such as the importance of ensemble simulations, further development and improvement of regional climate modeling approach, modeling extreme climate events and sub-daily variation of clouds and precipitation, model evaluation and diagnostics, applications of RCMs to climate process studies and seasonal predictions, and development of regional earth system models. It is believed that with both the demonstrated credibility of RCMs capability in reproducing not only monthly to seasonal mean climate and interannual variability but also the extreme climate events when driven by good quality reanalysis and the continuous improvements in the skill of global general circulation models (GCMs) in simulating large-scale atmospheric circulation, regional climate modeling will remain an important dynamical downscaling tool for providing the needed information for assessing climate change impacts and seasonal climate predictions, and a powerful tool for improving our understanding of regional climate processes. An internationally coordinated effort can be developed with different focuses by different groups to advance regional climate modeling studies. It is also recognized that since the final quality of the results from nested RCMs depends in part on the realism of the large-scale forcing provided by GCMs, the reduction of errors and improvement in

  12. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dunlea, Edward; Elfring, Chris

    2012-12-04

    Climate models are the foundation for understanding and projecting climate and climate-related changes and are thus critical tools for supporting climate-related decision making. This study developed a holistic strategy for improving the nation’s capability to accurately simulate climate and related Earth system changes on decadal to centennial timescales. The committee’s report is a high level analysis, providing a strategic framework to guide progress in the nation’s climate modeling enterprise over the next 10-20 years. This study was supported by DOE, NSF, NASA, NOAA, and the intelligence community.

  13. Climate Measurement & Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Measurement & Modeling - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Energy Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced

  14. Climate Modeling using High-Performance Computing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mirin, A A

    2007-02-05

    The Center for Applied Scientific Computing (CASC) and the LLNL Climate and Carbon Science Group of Energy and Environment (E and E) are working together to improve predictions of future climate by applying the best available computational methods and computer resources to this problem. Over the last decade, researchers at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) have developed a number of climate models that provide state-of-the-art simulations on a wide variety of massively parallel computers. We are now developing and applying a second generation of high-performance climate models. Through the addition of relevant physical processes, we are developing an earth systems modeling capability as well.

  15. Climate Model Output Rewriter

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2004-06-21

    CMOR comprises a set of FORTRAN 90 dunctions that can be used to produce CF-compliant netCDF files. The structure of the files created by CMOR and the metadata they contain fulfill the requirements of many of the climate community’s standard model experiments (which are referred to here as "MIPS", which stands for "model intercomparison project", including, for example, AMIP, CMIP, CFMIP, PMIP, APE, and IPCC scenario runs), CMOR was not designed to serve as anmore » all-purpose wfiter of CF-compliant netCDF files, but simply to reduce the effort required to prepare and manage MIP data. Although MIPs encourage systematic analysis of results across models, this is only easy to do if the model output is written in a common format with files structured similarly and with sufficient metadata uniformly stored according to a common standard. Individual modeling groups store their data in different ways. but if a group can read its own data with FORTRAN, then it should easily be able to transform the data, using CMOR, into the common format required by the MIPs, The adoption of CMOR as a standard code for exchanging climate data will facilitate participation in MIPs because after learning how to satisfy the output requirements of one MIP, it will be easy to prepare output for the other MIPs.« less

  16. Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling (COSIM)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Earth, Space Sciences Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling (COSIM) Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling (COSIM) The COSIM project develops advanced ocean and ice models for ...

  17. Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling - Discovering...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    in Climate Modeling - Discovering Sparsity and Building Surrogates. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling - Discovering ...

  18. Global Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Page 2 - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Energy Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy

  19. Global Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Energy Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy Nuclear Energy

  20. Climate Change Science Program Issues Report on Climate Models | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Climate Change Science Program Issues Report on Climate Models Climate Change Science Program Issues Report on Climate Models July 31, 2008 - 2:40pm Addthis WASHINGTON, DC - The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) today announced the release of the report "Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations," the 10th in a series of 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products (SAPs) managed by U.S. federal agencies. Developed under the leadership of the U.S.

  1. Climate Models: Rob Jacob | Argonne National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    science & technology Environmental modeling tools Programs Mathematics, computing, & computer science Modeling, simulation, & visualization Rob Jacob, Computational Climate...

  2. NNSA's National Laboratories Engage in Climate Modeling, Data Gathering |

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    National Nuclear Security Administration | (NNSA) NNSA's National Laboratories Engage in Climate Modeling, Data Gathering As the nation commemorates the 40th anniversary of Earth Day, NNSA highlights the role its national laboratories play in climate modeling and NNSA's efforts to improve energy efficiency across the nuclear security enterprise. As the nation commemorates the 40th anniversary of Earth Day, NNSA highlights the role its national laboratories play in climate modeling and NNSA's

  3. FOAM: Expanding the horizons of climate modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tobis, M.; Foster, I.T.; Schafer, C.M.

    1997-10-01

    We report here on a project that expands the applicability of dynamic climate modeling to very long time scales. The Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM) is a coupled ocean atmosphere model that incorporates physics of interest in understanding decade to century time scale variability. It addresses the high computational cost of this endeavor with a combination of improved ocean model formulation, low atmosphere resolution, and efficient coupling. It also uses message passing parallel processing techniques, allowing for the use of cost effective distributed memory platforms. The resulting model runs over 6000 times faster than real time with good fidelity, and has yielded significant results.

  4. Integrated Climate and Carbon-cycle Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2006-03-06

    The INCCA model is a numerical climate and carbon cycle modeling tool for use in studying climate change and carbon cycle science. The model includes atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and sea ice components.

  5. Evaluating climate models: Should we use weather or climate observations?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oglesby, Robert J; Erickson III, David J

    2009-12-01

    Calling the numerical models that we use for simulations of climate change 'climate models' is a bit of a misnomer. These 'general circulation models' (GCMs, AKA global climate models) and their cousins the 'regional climate models' (RCMs) are actually physically-based weather simulators. That is, these models simulate, either globally or locally, daily weather patterns in response to some change in forcing or boundary condition. These simulated weather patterns are then aggregated into climate statistics, very much as we aggregate observations into 'real climate statistics'. Traditionally, the output of GCMs has been evaluated using climate statistics, as opposed to their ability to simulate realistic daily weather observations. At the coarse global scale this may be a reasonable approach, however, as RCM's downscale to increasingly higher resolutions, the conjunction between weather and climate becomes more problematic. We present results from a series of present-day climate simulations using the WRF ARW for domains that cover North America, much of Latin America, and South Asia. The basic domains are at a 12 km resolution, but several inner domains at 4 km have also been simulated. These include regions of complex topography in Mexico, Colombia, Peru, and Sri Lanka, as well as a region of low topography and fairly homogeneous land surface type (the U.S. Great Plains). Model evaluations are performed using standard climate analyses (e.g., reanalyses; NCDC data) but also using time series of daily station observations. Preliminary results suggest little difference in the assessment of long-term mean quantities, but the variability on seasonal and interannual timescales is better described. Furthermore, the value-added by using daily weather observations as an evaluation tool increases with the model resolution.

  6. PV Performance Modeling Collaborative's New and Improved Website...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Modeling Collaborative's New and Improved Website Is Launched - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & ...

  7. Questions of bias in climate models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Steven J.; Wigley, Tom M.; Meinshausen, Malte; Rogelj, Joeri

    2014-08-27

    The recent work by Shindell usefully contributes to the debate over estimating climate sensitivity by highlighting an important aspect of the climate system: that climate forcings that occur over land result in a more rapid temperature response than forcings that are distributed more uniformly over the globe. While, as noted in this work, simple climate models may be biased by assuming the same temperature response for all forcing agents, the implication that the MAGICC model is biased in this way is not correct.

  8. Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models Berkeley Lab Researcher Says Climate Science is Entering New ...

  9. Property:Buildings/ModelClimateZone | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Climate Zone 7A Climate Zone 7B Climate Zone 8A Climate Zone 8B Pages using the property "BuildingsModelClimateZone" Showing 12 pages using this property. G General Merchandise...

  10. Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling (COSIM) Summary The COSIM project develops advanced ocean and ice models for evaluating the role of ocean and ice in high-latitude climate change and projecting the impacts of high-latitude change on regions throughout the globe. COSIM researchers develop, test and apply ocean and ice models in support of DOE Climate Change Research and the broader international climate science community. Additional research includes developing a set of next-generation ocean and ice

  11. Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bitz, Cecilia M.; Shell, K. M.; Gent, P. R.; Bailey, D. A.; Danabasoglu, G.; Armour, K. C.; Holland, M. M.; Kiehl, J. T.

    2012-05-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.20°C for 1° horizontal resolution in each component. This is about a half degree Celsius higher than in the previous version (CCSM3). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 1° resolution is 1.72°C, which is about 0.2°C higher than in CCSM3. These higher climate sensitivities in CCSM4 cannot be explained by the change to a preindustrial baseline climate. We use the radiative kernel technique to show that from CCSM3 to CCSM4, the global mean lapse-rate feedback declines in magnitude, and the shortwave cloud feedback increases. These two warming effects are partially canceled by cooling due to slight decreases in the global mean water-vapor feedback and longwave cloud feedback from CCSM3 to CCSM4. A new formulation of the mixed-layer, slab ocean model in CCSM4 attempts to reproduce the SST and sea ice climatology from an integration with a full-depth ocean, and it is integrated with a dynamic sea ice model. These new features allow an isolation of the influence of ocean dynamical changes on the climate response when comparing integrations with the slab ocean and full-depth ocean. The transient climate response of the full-depth ocean version is 0.54 of the equilibrium climate sensitivity when estimated with the new slab ocean model version for both CCSM3 and CCSM4. We argue the ratio is the same in both versions because they have about the same zonal mean pattern of change in ocean surface heat flux, which broadly resembles the zonal mean pattern of net feedback strength.

  12. Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Bitz, Cecilia M.; Shell, K. M.; Gent, P. R.; Bailey, D. A.; Danabasoglu, G.; Armour, K. C.; Holland, M. M.; Kiehl, J. T.

    2012-05-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.20°C for 1° horizontal resolution in each component. This is about a half degree Celsius higher than in the previous version (CCSM3). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 1° resolution is 1.72°C, which is about 0.2°C higher than in CCSM3. These higher climate sensitivities in CCSM4 cannot be explained by the change to a preindustrial baseline climate. We use the radiative kernel technique to show that from CCSM3 to CCSM4, the global mean lapse-rate feedback declines in magnitude, and the shortwave cloud feedback increases. These twomore » warming effects are partially canceled by cooling due to slight decreases in the global mean water-vapor feedback and longwave cloud feedback from CCSM3 to CCSM4. A new formulation of the mixed-layer, slab ocean model in CCSM4 attempts to reproduce the SST and sea ice climatology from an integration with a full-depth ocean, and it is integrated with a dynamic sea ice model. These new features allow an isolation of the influence of ocean dynamical changes on the climate response when comparing integrations with the slab ocean and full-depth ocean. The transient climate response of the full-depth ocean version is 0.54 of the equilibrium climate sensitivity when estimated with the new slab ocean model version for both CCSM3 and CCSM4. We argue the ratio is the same in both versions because they have about the same zonal mean pattern of change in ocean surface heat flux, which broadly resembles the zonal mean pattern of net feedback strength.« less

  13. Clouds and more: ARM climate modeling best estimate data: A new data product for climate studies

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Xie, Shaocheng; McCoy, Renata B.; Klein, Stephen A.; Cederwall, Richard T.; Wiscombe, Warren J.; Clothiaux, Eugene E.; Gaustad, Krista L.; Golaz, Jean -Christophe; Hall, Stephanie D.; Jensen, Michael P.; et al

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program (www.arm.gov) was created in 1989 to address scientific uncertainties related to global climate change, with a focus on the crucial role of clouds and their influence on the transfer of radiation atmosphere. Here, a central activity is the acquisition of detailed observations of clouds and radiation, as well as related atmospheric variables for climate model evaluation and improvement.

  14. Model simulation of climate changes in China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen Ming; Fu Congbin

    1997-12-31

    At present there are a large amount of work about influence of human activities and industrization on global climate changes. But due to the non-homogeneous boundary layer between earth and atmosphere there exist distinct difference of climate changes between different regions. China locates in the cast edge of Eurasian continent and border on the Pacific Ocean, it is the most famous monsoon region in the world. Climate of this region is very complex not only because of monsoon but also because its complicated topography. Researches about climate change in this region arc far from adequate. For this reason we use the Australia CSIRO 9-level truncated spectral model to nest with our regional climate model to simulate climate changes of China under conditions of double co2. Models arc running continuously for three years in both conditions of present co2 level and double co2 ppm.

  15. Climate Impact of Transportation A Model Comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Girod, Bastien; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Grahn, Maria; Kitous, Alban; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page

    2013-06-01

    Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO2 emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and CO2 emissions of five different global transport models using harmonized input assumptions on income and population. For four models we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax. All models project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology is important for limiting energy consumption and CO2 emissions, but quite radical changes in the technology mix are required to stabilize or reverse the trend. While all models project liquid fossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax of US$200/tCO2 in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate room for improvement in modeling and empirical description of the transport system.

  16. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data - A new data product...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data - A new data product for climate modelers Citation Details In-Document Search Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data - A new data ...

  17. User-Oriented Modeling Tools for Advanced Hybrid and Climate...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    User-Oriented Modeling Tools for Advanced Hybrid and Climate-Appropriate Rooftop Air Conditioners User-Oriented Modeling Tools for Advanced Hybrid and Climate-Appropriate Rooftop ...

  18. Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using Arm Measurements Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using Arm ...

  19. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK Statistical Summary...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK Statistical Summary (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1) Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK Statistical Summary (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1) ...

  20. Improved MK42 Melting Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tudor, A.A.

    2001-09-19

    An improved Mark 42 melting model has been defined for establishing confinement protection limits (CPLs). This report describes the new melting model and its application in computing CPLs.

  1. Testing Statistical Cloud Scheme Ideas in the GFDL Climate Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Testing Statistical Cloud Scheme Ideas in the GFDL Climate Model Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Pincus, Robert NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center...

  2. Using Ecosystem Experiments to Improve Vegetation Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Medlyn, Belinda; Zaehle, S; DeKauwe, Martin G.; Walker, Anthony P.; Dietze, Michael; Hanson, Paul J.; Hickler, Thomas; Jain, Atul; Luo, Yiqi; Parton, William; Prentice, I. Collin; Thornton, Peter E.; Wang, Shusen; Wang, Yingping; Weng, Ensheng; Iversen, Colleen M.; McCarthy, Heather R.; Warren, Jeffrey; Oren, Ram; Norby, Richard J

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem responses to rising CO2 concentrations are a major source of uncertainty in climate change projections. Data from ecosystem-scale Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments provide a unique opportunity to reduce this uncertainty. The recent FACE Model–Data Synthesis project aimed to use the information gathered in two forest FACE experiments to assess and improve land ecosystem models. A new 'assumption-centred' model intercomparison approach was used, in which participating models were evaluated against experimental data based on the ways in which they represent key ecological processes. Identifying and evaluating the main assumptions caused differences among models, and the assumption-centered approach produced a clear roadmap for reducing model uncertainty. We explain this approach and summarize the resulting research agenda. We encourage the application of this approach in other model intercomparison projects to fundamentally improve predictive understanding of the Earth system.

  3. Using Ecosystem Experiments to Improve Vegetation Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Medlyn, Belinda; Zaehle, S; DeKauwe, Martin G.; Walker, Anthony P.; Dietze, Michael; Hanson, Paul J.; Hickler, Thomas; Jain, Atul; Luo, Yiqi; Parton, William; Prentice, I. Collin; Thornton, Peter E.; Wang, Shusen; Wang, Yingping; Weng, Ensheng; Iversen, Colleen M.; McCarthy, Heather R.; Warren, Jeffrey; Oren, Ram; Norby, Richard J

    2015-05-21

    Ecosystem responses to rising CO2 concentrations are a major source of uncertainty in climate change projections. Data from ecosystem-scale Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments provide a unique opportunity to reduce this uncertainty. The recent FACE Model–Data Synthesis project aimed to use the information gathered in two forest FACE experiments to assess and improve land ecosystem models. A new 'assumption-centred' model intercomparison approach was used, in which participating models were evaluated against experimental data based on the ways in which they represent key ecological processes. Identifying and evaluating the main assumptions caused differences among models, and the assumption-centered approach produced a clear roadmap for reducing model uncertainty. We explain this approach and summarize the resulting research agenda. We encourage the application of this approach in other model intercomparison projects to fundamentally improve predictive understanding of the Earth system.

  4. Using Ecosystem Experiments to Improve Vegetation Models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Medlyn, Belinda; Zaehle, S; DeKauwe, Martin G.; Walker, Anthony P.; Dietze, Michael; Hanson, Paul J.; Hickler, Thomas; Jain, Atul; Luo, Yiqi; Parton, William; et al

    2015-05-21

    Ecosystem responses to rising CO2 concentrations are a major source of uncertainty in climate change projections. Data from ecosystem-scale Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments provide a unique opportunity to reduce this uncertainty. The recent FACE Model–Data Synthesis project aimed to use the information gathered in two forest FACE experiments to assess and improve land ecosystem models. A new 'assumption-centred' model intercomparison approach was used, in which participating models were evaluated against experimental data based on the ways in which they represent key ecological processes. Identifying and evaluating the main assumptions caused differences among models, and the assumption-centered approach produced amore » clear roadmap for reducing model uncertainty. We explain this approach and summarize the resulting research agenda. We encourage the application of this approach in other model intercomparison projects to fundamentally improve predictive understanding of the Earth system.« less

  5. Community Climate System Model (CCSM) Experiments and Output Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) created the first version of the Community Climate Model (CCM) in 1983 as a global atmosphere model. It was improved in 1994 when NCAR, with support from the National Science Foundation (NSF), developed and incorporated a Climate System Model (CSM) that included atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice. As the capabilities of the model grew, so did interest in its applications and changes in how it would be managed. A workshop in 1996 set the future management structure, marked the beginning of the second phase of the model, a phase that included full participation of the scientific community, and also saw additional financial support, including support from the Department of Energy. In recognition of these changes, the model was renamed to the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). It began to function as a model with the interactions of land, sea, and air fully coupled, providing computer simulations of Earth's past climate, its present climate, and its possible future climate. The CCSM website at http://www2.cesm.ucar.edu/ describes some of the research that has been done since then: A 300-year run has been performed using the CSM, and results from this experiment have appeared in a special issue of theJournal of Climate, 11, June, 1998. A 125-year experiment has been carried out in which carbon dioxide was described to increase at 1% per year from its present concentration to approximately three times its present concentration. More recently, the Climate of the 20th Century experiment was run, with carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols prescribed to evolve according to our best knowledge from 1870 to the present. Three scenarios for the 21st century were developed: a "business as usual" experiment, in which greenhouse gases are assumed to increase with no economic constraints; an experiment using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Scenario A1; and a "policy

  6. Application of Improved Radiation Modeling to General Circulation Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Michael J Iacono

    2011-04-07

    This research has accomplished its primary objectives of developing accurate and efficient radiation codes, validating them with measurements and higher resolution models, and providing these advancements to the global modeling community to enhance the treatment of cloud and radiative processes in weather and climate prediction models. A critical component of this research has been the development of the longwave and shortwave broadband radiative transfer code for general circulation model (GCM) applications, RRTMG, which is based on the single-column reference code, RRTM, also developed at AER. RRTMG is a rigorously tested radiation model that retains a considerable level of accuracy relative to higher resolution models and measurements despite the performance enhancements that have made it possible to apply this radiation code successfully to global dynamical models. This model includes the radiative effects of all significant atmospheric gases, and it treats the absorption and scattering from liquid and ice clouds and aerosols. RRTMG also includes a statistical technique for representing small-scale cloud variability, such as cloud fraction and the vertical overlap of clouds, which has been shown to improve cloud radiative forcing in global models. This development approach has provided a direct link from observations to the enhanced radiative transfer provided by RRTMG for application to GCMs. Recent comparison of existing climate model radiation codes with high resolution models has documented the improved radiative forcing capability provided by RRTMG, especially at the surface, relative to other GCM radiation models. Due to its high accuracy, its connection to observations, and its computational efficiency, RRTMG has been implemented operationally in many national and international dynamical models to provide validated radiative transfer for improving weather forecasts and enhancing the prediction of global climate change.

  7. The impact of ARM on climate modeling

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Randall, David A.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Donner, Lee J.; Collins, William D.; Klein, Stephen A.

    2016-07-15

    Climate models are among humanity’s most ambitious and elaborate creations. They are designed to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and cryosphere on time scales far beyond the limits of deterministic predictability and including the effects of time-dependent external forcings. The processes involved include radiative transfer, fluid dynamics, microphysics, and some aspects of geochemistry, biology, and ecology. The models explicitly simulate processes on spatial scales ranging from the circumference of Earth down to 100 km or smaller and implicitly include the effects of processes on even smaller scales down to a micron or so. In addition, themore » atmospheric component of a climate model can be called an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM).« less

  8. Modifications improve waterflood performance model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    El-Banbi, A.H.; Abdel Wally, A.; Abd-el Fattah, K.A.; Sayyouh, M.H.

    1996-01-01

    Modifications to the Craig-Geffen-Morse (CGM) waterflooding model improve reservoir performance predictions and allow for the inclusion of pressure drop variations with time. The modified model was validated against numerical simulation results. The paper describes the CGM model, the hypothetical data set, the simulation technique, comparisons between the CGM model and the simulation, and modifications to the CGM model relating to pressure drop variation and water production.

  9. LINKING MICROBES TO CLIMATE: INCORPORATING MICROBIAL ACTIVITY INTO CLIMATE MODELS COLLOQUIUM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DeLong, Edward; Harwood, Caroline; Reid, Ann

    2011-01-01

    This report explains the connection between microbes and climate, discusses in general terms what modeling is and how it applied to climate, and discusses the need for knowledge in microbial physiology, evolution, and ecology to contribute to the determination of fluxes and rates in climate models. It recommends with a multi-pronged approach to address the gaps.

  10. OSTIblog Articles in the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy Topic |

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    OSTI, US Dept of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy

  11. New partnership uses advanced computer science modeling to address climate

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    change | National Nuclear Security Administration | (NNSA) partnership uses advanced computer science modeling to address climate change Friday, August 29, 2014 - 10:26am Several national laboratories and institutions have joined forces to develop and apply the most complete climate and Earth system model to address the most challenging and demanding climate change issues. Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy, or ACME, is designed to accelerate the development and application of fully

  12. Calibration and Comparison of Climate Models: Accounting for...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Models: Accounting for Structural and Discretization Error. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Calibration and Comparison of Climate Models: Accounting for ...

  13. A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Technical Report: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model ...

  14. FAO-Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change (MOSAICC) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: FAO-Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of...

  15. ARM - PI Product - Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govDataPI Data ProductsClimate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) Comments? We would love to hear from you Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : Climate...

  16. Getting Forest Carbon Right in Climate Models | U.S. DOE Office...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Getting Forest Carbon Right in Climate Models Biological and Environmental Research (BER) ... Getting Forest Carbon Right in Climate Models New method predicts how climates will move ...

  17. Climate Change Impact Valuation Models Revisited | U.S. DOE Office...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Climate Change Impact Valuation Models Revisited Biological and Environmental Research ... Climate Change Impact Valuation Models Revisited Valuing diverse climate impacts in ...

  18. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data, A New Data Product for...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data, A New Data Product for Climate Studies Citation Details In-Document Search Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data, ...

  19. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Auffhammer, Maximilian; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Schlenker, Wolfram; Sobel, Adam H.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  20. DOE Project Taps HPC for Next-Generation Climate Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    DOE Project Taps HPC for Next-Generation Climate Modeling DOE Project Taps HPC for Next-Generation Climate Modeling Berkeley Lab, NERSC to help accelerate development of state-of-the-science Earth system models August 25, 2014 Contact: Dan Krotz 510-486-4019 billcollins.jpg Bill Collins, ACME's Chief Scientist and head of the Earth Sciences Division's Climate Sciences Department at Berkeley Lab. Image: Roy Kaltschmidt High performance computing (HPC) will be used to develop and apply the most

  1. Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using ARM

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Measurements (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using ARM Measurements Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using ARM Measurements This five-year award supports the project "Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using ARM Measurements (FASTER)". The goal of this project is to produce accurate, consistent and comprehensive data sets for

  2. Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models Berkeley Lab Researcher Says Climate Science is Entering New Golden Age November 12, 2014 Contact: Julie Chao, jchao@lbl.gov, 510.486.6491 wehnerclimate2 Simulated and observed annual maximum 5 day accumulated precipitation over land points, averaged. Observations are calculated from the period 1979 to 1999. Model results are calculated from the period 1979 to 2005. Not long ago,

  3. Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marten, Alex; Kopp, Robert E.; Shouse, Kate C.; Griffiths, Charles; Hodson, Elke L.; Kopits, Elizabeth; Mignone, Bryan K.; Moore, Chris; Newbold, Steve; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Wolverton, Ann

    2013-04-01

    to updating the estimates regularly as modeling capabilities and scientific and economic knowledge improves. To help foster further improvements in estimating the SCC, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy hosted a pair of workshops on “Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis.” The first focused on conceptual and methodological issues related to integrated assessment modeling and the second brought together natural and social scientists to explore methods for improving damage assessment for multiple sectors. These two workshops provide the basis for the 13 papers in this special issue.

  4. Posters Radiation Impacts on Global Climate Models F. Baer, N...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Posters Radiation Impacts on Global Climate Models F. Baer, N. Arsky, and K. Rocque ... Heating Rates Generated from Longwave Radiation Algorithms LWR algorithms calculate ...

  5. Calibration and Comparison of Climate Models: Accounting for...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    by BaKfe Since 1965 Background and Motivation * Climate models are complex * Rely on ... Support for this work was provided through the Scientific Discovery through Advanced ...

  6. Distributed modeling of ablation (1996-2011) and climate sensitivity...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    of Taylor Valley, Antarctica Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Distributed modeling of ablation (1996-2011) and climate sensitivity on the glaciers of Taylor Valley, ...

  7. A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science Gent, Peter; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Conley, Andrew; Vertenstein, Mariana; Craig, Anthony 54 ENVIRONMENTAL...

  8. Bayesian Proteoform Modeling Improves Protein Quantification...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Bayesian Proteoform Modeling Improves Protein Quantification of Global Proteomic Measurements Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Bayesian Proteoform Modeling Improves ...

  9. NNSA Marks Earth Day by Highlighting Role in Climate Modeling, Commitment

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    to Energy Efficiency | National Nuclear Security Administration | (NNSA) Press Releases NNSA Marks Earth Day by Highlighting Role in Climate Modeling, Commitment to Energy Efficiency April 22, 2010 WASHINGTON, D.C. - As the nation commemorates the 40th anniversary of Earth Day, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) today launched a new feature on its website that highlights the role NNSA's national laboratories play in climate modeling and NNSA's efforts to improve energy

  10. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gutowski, William J.

    2013-02-07

    The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

  11. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Raymond S. Bradley; Henry F. Diaz

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth??s climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  12. Subtask 2.4 - Integration and Synthesis in Climate Change Predictive Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jaroslav Solc

    2009-06-01

    The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) completed a brief evaluation of the existing status of predictive modeling to assess options for integration of our previous paleohydrologic reconstructions and their synthesis with current global climate scenarios. Results of our research indicate that short-term data series available from modern instrumental records are not sufficient to reconstruct past hydrologic events or predict future ones. On the contrary, reconstruction of paleoclimate phenomena provided credible information on past climate cycles and confirmed their integration in the context of regional climate history is possible. Similarly to ice cores and other paleo proxies, acquired data represent an objective, credible tool for model calibration and validation of currently observed trends. It remains a subject of future research whether further refinement of our results and synthesis with regional and global climate observations could contribute to improvement and credibility of climate predictions on a regional and global scale.

  13. (Rain)cloud computing: Researchers work to improve how we predict climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    change | Argonne National Laboratory (Rain)cloud computing: Researchers work to improve how we predict climate change By Louise Lerner * March 3, 2016 Tweet EmailPrint Rao Kotamarthi and Jiali Wang spend their days looking at a future Earth. At the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Argonne National Laboratory, the two scientists work on simulations and techniques to project what the climate will look like 100 years from now. Last year, they completed the highest resolution climate forecast

  14. Climate Change Modeling and Downscaling Issues and Methodological Perspectives for the U.S. National Climate Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Janetos, Anthony C.; Collins, William D.; Wuebbles, D.J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah; Hayhoe, Katharine; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Hurtt, George

    2012-03-31

    This is the full workshop report for the modeling workshop we did for the National Climate Assessment, with DOE support.

  15. A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Prein, Andreas; Langhans, Wolfgang; Fosser, Giorgia; Ferrone, Andrew; Ban, Nikolina; Goergen, Klaus; Keller, Michael; Tolle, Merja; Gutjahr, Oliver; Feser, Frauke; et al

    2015-05-27

    Regional climate modeling using convection permitting models (CPMs) emerges as a promising framework to provide more reliable climate information on regional to local scales compared to traditionally used large-scale models (LSMs). CPMs do not use convection parameterization schemes, known as a major source of errors and uncertainties, and have more accurate surface and orography elds. The drawback of CPMs is their high demand on computational resources. For this reason, the CPM climate simulations only appeared a decade ago. In this study we aim to provide a common basis for CPM climate simulations by giving a holistic review of the topic.more » The most important components in CPM, such as physical parameterizations and dynamical formulations are discussed, and an outlook on required future developments and computer architectures that would support the application of CPMs is given. Most importantly, this review presents the consolidated outcome of studies that addressed the added value of CPM climate simulations compared to LSMs. Most improvements are found for processes related to deep convection (e.g., precipitation during summer), for mountainous regions, and for the soil-vegetation-atmosphere interactions. The climate change signals of CPM simulations reveal increases in short and extreme rainfall events and an increased ratio of liquid precipitation at the surface (a decrease of hail) potentially leading to more frequent ash oods. Concluding, CPMs are a very promising tool for future climate research. However, coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to assess their full potential and support their development.« less

  16. A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prein, Andreas; Langhans, Wolfgang; Fosser, Giorgia; Ban, Nikolina; Goergen, Klaus; Keller, Michael; Tolle, Merja; Gutjahr, Oliver; Feser, Frauke; Brisson, Erwan; Kollet, Stefan; Schmidli, Juerg; van Lipzig, Nicole; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-05-27

    Regional climate modeling using convection permitting models (CPMs) emerges as a promising framework to provide more reliable climate information on regional to local scales compared to traditionally used large-scale models (LSMs). CPMs do not use convection parameterization schemes, known as a major source of errors and uncertainties, and have more accurate surface and orography elds. The drawback of CPMs is their high demand on computational resources. For this reason, the CPM climate simulations only appeared a decade ago. In this study we aim to provide a common basis for CPM climate simulations by giving a holistic review of the topic. The most important components in CPM, such as physical parameterizations and dynamical formulations are discussed, and an outlook on required future developments and computer architectures that would support the application of CPMs is given. Most importantly, this review presents the consolidated outcome of studies that addressed the added value of CPM climate simulations compared to LSMs. Most improvements are found for processes related to deep convection (e.g., precipitation during summer), for mountainous regions, and for the soil-vegetation-atmosphere interactions. The climate change signals of CPM simulations reveal increases in short and extreme rainfall events and an increased ratio of liquid precipitation at the surface (a decrease of hail) potentially leading to more frequent ash oods. Concluding, CPMs are a very promising tool for future climate research. However, coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to assess their full potential and support their development.

  17. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-ATM TWPC1) Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-ATM TWPC1) The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file ...

  18. ARM - Evaluation Product - Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsClimate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) Documentation Use the Data File Inventory tool to view data availability at the file level. Comments? We would love to hear from you...

  19. The Program for climate Model diagnosis and Intercomparison: 20-th anniversary Symposium

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Potter, Gerald L; Bader, David C; Riches, Michael; Bamzai, Anjuli; Joseph, Renu

    2011-01-05

    Twenty years ago, W. Lawrence (Larry) Gates approached the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Research (now the Office of Science) with a plan to coordinate the comparison and documentation of climate model differences. This effort would help improve our understanding of climate change through a systematic approach to model intercomparison. Early attempts at comparing results showed a surprisingly large range in control climate from such parameters as cloud cover, precipitation, and even atmospheric temperature. The DOE agreed to fund the effort at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), in part because of the existing computing environment and because of a preexisting atmospheric science group that contained a wide variety of expertise. The project was named the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), and it has changed the international landscape of climate modeling over the past 20 years. In spring 2009 the DOE hosted a 1-day symposium to celebrate the twentieth anniversary of PCMDI and to honor its founder, Larry Gates. Through their personal experiences, the morning presenters painted an image of climate science in the 1970s and 1980s, that generated early support from the international community for model intercomparison, thereby bringing PCMDI into existence. Four talks covered Gates???¢????????s early contributions to climate research at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), the RAND Corporation, and Oregon State University through the founding of PCMDI to coordinate the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The speakers were, in order of presentation, Warren Washington [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)], Kelly Redmond (Western Regional Climate Center), George Boer (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis), and Lennart Bengtsson [University of Reading, former director of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)]. The

  20. PV Performance Modeling Collaborative's New and Improved Website Is

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Launched Modeling Collaborative's New and Improved Website Is Launched - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear

  1. ARM CLIMATE MODELING BEST ESTIMATE DATA A New Data Product for...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ARM CLIMATE MODELING BEST ESTIMATE DATA A New Data Product for Climate Studies Citation Details In-Document Search Title: ARM CLIMATE MODELING BEST ESTIMATE DATA A New Data Product ...

  2. The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lynch, Peter [Meteorology and Climate Centre, School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Dublin, Belfield (Ireland)], E-mail: Peter.Lynch@ucd.ie

    2008-03-20

    Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed.

  3. An evaluation of the variable-resolution CESM for modeling California's climate: Evaluation of VR-CESM for Modeling California's Climate

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Huang, Xingying; Rhoades, Alan M.; Ullrich, Paul A.; Zarzycki, Colin M.

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, the recently developed variable-resolution option within the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) is assessed for long-term regional climate modeling of California at 0.25° (~ 28 km) and 0.125° (~ 14 km) horizontal resolutions. The mean climatology of near-surface temperature and precipitation is analyzed and contrasted with reanalysis, gridded observational data sets, and a traditional regional climate model (RCM)—the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Statistical metrics for model evaluation and tests for differential significance have been extensively applied. VR-CESM tended to produce a warmer summer (by about 1–3°C) and overestimated overall winter precipitation (about 25%–35%) compared tomore » reference data sets when sea surface temperatures were prescribed. Increasing resolution from 0.25° to 0.125° did not produce a statistically significant improvement in the model results. By comparison, the analogous WRF climatology (constrained laterally and at the sea surface by ERA-Interim reanalysis) was ~1–3°C colder than the reference data sets, underestimated precipitation by ~20%–30% at 27 km resolution, and overestimated precipitation by ~ 65–85% at 9 km. Overall, VR-CESM produced comparable statistical biases to WRF in key climatological quantities. Moreover, this assessment highlights the value of variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) in capturing fine-scale atmospheric processes, projecting future regional climate, and addressing the computational expense of uniform-resolution global climate models.« less

  4. Towards Ultra-High Resolution Models of Climate and Weather

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wehner, Michael; Oliker, Leonid; Shalf, John

    2007-01-01

    We present a speculative extrapolation of the performance aspects of an atmospheric general circulation model to ultra-high resolution and describe alternative technological paths to realize integration of such a model in the relatively near future. Due to a superlinear scaling of the computational burden dictated by stability criterion, the solution of the equations of motion dominate the calculation at ultra-high resolutions. From this extrapolation, it is estimated that a credible kilometer scale atmospheric model would require at least a sustained ten petaflop computer to provide scientifically useful climate simulations. Our design study portends an alternate strategy for practical power-efficient implementations of petaflop scale systems. Embedded processor technology could be exploited to tailor a custom machine designed to ultra-high climate model specifications at relatively affordable cost and power considerations. The major conceptual changes required by a kilometer scale climate model are certain to be difficult to implement. Although the hardware, software, and algorithms are all equally critical in conducting ultra-high climate resolution studies, it is likely that the necessary petaflop computing technology will be available in advance of a credible kilometer scale climate model.

  5. Modeling Transient Response of Forests to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dale, Virginia H; Tharp, M Lynn; Lannom, Karen O.; Hodges, Donald G

    2010-01-01

    Our hypothesis is that a high diversity of dominant life forms in Tennessee forests conveys resilience to disturbance such as climate change. Because of uncertainty in climate change and their effects, three climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to simulate a range of potential climate conditions for the state. These climate changes derive from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B storyline that assumes rapid global economic growth. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in five ecological provinces using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation differences from the long-term average are more complex but less striking. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions for five ecological provinces from 1989 to 2300. Average output projects changes in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces in Tennessee with the greatest changes in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Projected declines in total tree biomass are followed by biomass recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The Southern Mixed Forest province results in less diversity in dominant trees as well as lower overall biomass than projections for the other four provinces. The biomass and composition changes projected in this study differ from forest dynamics expected without climate change. These results suggest that biomass recovery following climate change is linked to dominant tree diversity in the southeastern forest of the US. The generality of this observation warrants further investigation, for it relates to ways that forest management may influence climate change effects.

  6. Observations and simulations improve space weather models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Observations improve space weather models Observations and simulations improve space weather models Researchers used data from the Van Allen Probes to improve a three-dimensional model created by Los Alamos scientists called DREAM3D. June 25, 2014 NASA's Van Allen Probes sample the Earth's magnetosphere. NASA's Van Allen Probes sample the Earth's magnetosphere. The work demonstrated that DREAM3D accurately simulated the behavior of a complex and dynamic event in the radiation belt that was

  7. Observations and simulations improve space weather models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Observations improve space weather models Observations and simulations improve space weather models Researchers used data from the Van Allen Probes to improve a three-dimensional model created by Los Alamos scientists called DREAM3D. June 25, 2014 NASA's Van Allen Probes sample the Earth's magnetosphere. NASA's Van Allen Probes sample the Earth's magnetosphere. The work demonstrated that DREAM3D accurately simulated the behavior of a complex and dynamic event in the radiation belt that was

  8. World agriculture and climate change: Current modeling issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Darwin, R.

    1996-12-31

    Recent studies suggest that although global increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns during the next century will affect world agriculture, farmer adaptations are likely to prevent climate change from jeopardizing world food production. The costs and benefits of global climate change, however, are not equally distributed around the world. Agricultural production may increase in high latitude and alpine areas, but decrease in tropical and some other areas. Also, land use changes that accompany climate-induced shifts in cropland and permanent pasture are likely to raise additional social and environmental issues. Despite these advances, some important aspects of climate change have not been adequately simulated in global models. These include the effects that climate-induced changes in water resources are likely to have on agricultural production, the well-documented beneficial effects of higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide on plant growth and water use, and the cooling effects of tropospheric emissions of sulfur dioxide. In addition, past research generally relied on equilibrium climates based on a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Now, however, results from transient climate change experiments are available.

  9. Climate Models: Rob Jacob | Argonne National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    --Tribology -Mathematics, computing, & computer science --Cloud computing --Modeling, simulation, & visualization --Petascale & exascale computing --Supercomputing &...

  10. Climate Models from the Joint Global Change Research Institute

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Staff at the Joint Institute develop and use models to simulate the economic and physical impacts of global change policy options. The GCAM, for example, gives analysts insight into how regional and national economies might respond to climate change mitigation policies including carbon taxes, carbon trading, and accelerated deployment of energy technology. Three available models are Phoenix, GCAM, and EPIC. Phoenix is a global, dynamic recursive, computable general equilibrium model that is solved in five-year time steps from 2005 through 2100 and divides the world into twenty-four regions. Each region includes twenty-six industrial sectors. Particular attention is paid to energy production in Phoenix. There are nine electricity-generating technologies (coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal) and four additional energy commodities: crude oil, refined oil products, coal, and natural gas. Phoenix is designed to answer economic questions related to international climate and energy policy and international trade. Phoenix replaces the Second Generation Model (SGM) that was formerly used for general equilibrium analysis at JGCRI. GCAM is the Global Change Assessment Model, a partial equilibrium model of the world with 14 regions. GCAM operates in 5 year time steps from 1990 to 2095 and is designed to examine long-term changes in the coupled energy, agriculture/land-use, and climate system. GCAM includes a 151-region agriculture land-use module and a reduced form carbon cycle and climate module in addition to its incorporation of demographics, resources, energy production and consumption. The model has been used extensively in a number of assessment and modeling activities such as the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and IPCC assessment reports. GCAM is now freely available as a community model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) Model

  11. ARM - Evaluation Product - ARM Diagnostics for Climate Model Evaluation

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsARM Diagnostics for Climate Model Evaluation ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Documentation Use the Data File Inventory tool to view data availability at the file level. Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Evaluation Product : ARM Diagnostics for Climate Model Evaluation [ ARM research - evaluation data product ] This data products include two types of data sets: 1. Observational data: we use long-term continuous forcing data

  12. A New Method of Comparing Forcing Agents in Climate Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kravitz, Benjamin S.; MacMartin, Douglas; Rasch, Philip J.; Jarvis, Andrew

    2015-10-14

    We describe a new method of comparing different climate forcing agents (e.g., CO2, CH4, and solar irradiance) that avoids many of the ambiguities introduced by temperature-related climate feedbacks. This is achieved by introducing an explicit feedback loop external to the climate model that adjusts one forcing agent to balance another while keeping global mean surface temperature constant. Compared to current approaches, this method has two main advantages: (i) the need to define radiative forcing is bypassed and (ii) by maintaining roughly constant global mean temperature, the effects of state dependence on internal feedback strengths are minimized. We demonstrate this approach for several different forcing agents and derive the relationships between these forcing agents in two climate models; comparisons between forcing agents are highly linear in concordance with predicted functional forms. Transitivity of the relationships between the forcing agents appears to hold within a wide range of forcing. The relationships between the forcing agents obtained from this method are consistent across both models but differ from relationships that would be obtained from calculations of radiative forcing, highlighting the importance of controlling for surface temperature feedback effects when separating radiative forcing and climate response.

  13. Agent Model Development for Assessing Climate-Induced Geopolitical Instability.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Boslough, Mark B.; Backus, George A.

    2005-12-01

    We present the initial stages of development of new agent-based computational methods to generate and test hypotheses about linkages between environmental change and international instability. This report summarizes the first year's effort of an originally proposed three-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project. The preliminary work focused on a set of simple agent-based models and benefited from lessons learned in previous related projects and case studies of human response to climate change and environmental scarcity. Our approach was to define a qualitative model using extremely simple cellular agent models akin to Lovelock's Daisyworld and Schelling's segregation model. Such models do not require significant computing resources, and users can modify behavior rules to gain insights. One of the difficulties in agent-based modeling is finding the right balance between model simplicity and real-world representation. Our approach was to keep agent behaviors as simple as possible during the development stage (described herein) and to ground them with a realistic geospatial Earth system model in subsequent years. This work is directed toward incorporating projected climate data--including various C02 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report--and ultimately toward coupling a useful agent-based model to a general circulation model.3

  14. Improved Offshore Wind Resource Assessment in Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arent, D.; Sullivan, P.; Heimiller, D.; Lopez, A.; Eurek, K.; Badger, J.; Jorgensen, H. E.; Kelly, M.; Clarke, L.; Luckow, P.

    2012-10-01

    This paper introduces a technique for digesting geospatial wind-speed data into areally defined -- country-level, in this case -- wind resource supply curves. We combined gridded wind-vector data for ocean areas with bathymetry maps, country exclusive economic zones, wind turbine power curves, and other datasets and relevant parameters to build supply curves that estimate a country's offshore wind resource defined by resource quality, depth, and distance-from-shore. We include a single set of supply curves -- for a particular assumption set -- and study some implications of including it in a global energy model. We also discuss the importance of downscaling gridded wind vector data to capturing the full resource potential, especially over land areas with complex terrain. This paper includes motivation and background for a statistical downscaling methodology to account for terrain effects with a low computational burden. Finally, we use this forum to sketch a framework for building synthetic electric networks to estimate transmission accessibility of renewable resource sites in remote areas.

  15. An Interactive Multi-Model for Consensus on Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kocarev, Ljupco

    2014-07-02

    This project purports to develop a new scheme for forming consensus among alternative climate models, that give widely divergent projections as to the details of climate change, that is more intelligent than simply averaging the model outputs, or averaging with ex post facto weighting factors. The method under development effectively allows models to assimilate data from one another in run time with weights that are chosen in an adaptive training phase using 20th century data, so that the models synchronize with one another as well as with reality. An alternate approach that is being explored in parallel is the automated combination of equations from different models in an expert-system-like framework.

  16. Climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SunShot Grand Challenge: Regional Test Centers Climate HomeTag:Climate Electricity use by water service sector and county. Shown are electricity use by (a) large-scale ...

  17. Radiative heating in global climate models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baer, F.; Arsky, N.; Rocque, K.

    1996-04-01

    LWR algorithms from various GCMs vary significantly from one another for the same clear sky input data. This variability becomes pronounced when clouds are included. We demonstrate this effect by intercomparing the various models` output using observed data including clouds from ARM/CART data taken in Oklahoma.

  18. Statistical representation of clouds in climate models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    approach for representing ice microphysics in bin and bulk schemes: Application to TWP-ICE deep convection Hugh Morrison and Wojciech Grabowski National Center for Atmospheric Research ARM STM, Monday, April 1, 2009 -1) Uncertainty of ice initiation processes -2) Wide range of ice particle characteristics (e.g., shape, effective density) -3) No clear separation of physical processes for small and large crystals The treatment of ice microphysics has a large impact on model simulations, e.g.,

  19. Marianne Francois-Scientific modeling of materials and climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Marianne Francois Marianne Francois-Scientific modeling of materials and climate Her ability to model the complexity of nuclear weapons systems through advanced numerical methods play an important role in supporting nonproliferation efforts. March 11, 2014 Marianne Francois Francois became a postdoc at the Lab in 2002, where she is now a deputy group leader. A pilot, she (somewhat) jokingly says she chose Los Alamos because it has an airport atop a mesa. Francois says. "Don't get

  20. Estimating present climate in a warming world: a model-based approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Raeisaenen, J.; Ruokolainen, L. [University of Helsinki (Finland). Division of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysics

    2008-09-30

    Weather services base their operational definitions of 'present' climate on past observations, using a 30-year normal period such as 1961-1990 or 1971-2000. In a world with ongoing global warming, however, past data give a biased estimate of the actual present-day climate. Here we propose to correct this bias with a 'delta change' method, in which model-simulated climate changes and observed global mean temperature changes are used to extrapolate past observations forward in time, to make them representative of present or future climate conditions. In a hindcast test for the years 1991-2002, the method works well for temperature, with a clear improvement in verification statistics compared to the case in which the hindcast is formed directly from the observations for 1961-1990. However, no improvement is found for precipitation, for which the signal-to-noise ratio between expected anthropogenic changes and interannual variability is much lower than for temperature. An application of the method to the present (around the year 2007) climate suggests that, as a geographical average over land areas excluding Antarctica, 8-9 months per year and 8-9 years per decade can be expected to be warmer than the median for 1971-2000. Along with the overall warming, a substantial increase in the frequency of warm extremes at the expense of cold extremes of monthly-to-annual temperature is expected.

  1. The accuracy of climate models' simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of grid scale correction factors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Winterhalter, Wade E.

    2011-09-01

    Global climate change is expected to impact biological populations through a variety of mechanisms including increases in the length of their growing season. Climate models are useful tools for predicting how season length might change in the future. However, the accuracy of these models tends to be rather low at regional geographic scales. Here, I determined the ability of several atmosphere and ocean general circulating models (AOGCMs) to accurately simulate historical season lengths for a temperate ectotherm across the continental United States. I also evaluated the effectiveness of regional-scale correction factors to improve the accuracy of these models. I found that both the accuracy of simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of the correction factors to improve the model's accuracy varied geographically and across models. These results suggest that regional specific correction factors do not always adequately remove potential discrepancies between simulated and historically observed environmental parameters. As such, an explicit evaluation of the correction factors' effectiveness should be included in future studies of global climate change's impact on biological populations.

  2. The accuracy of climate models' simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of grid scale correction factors

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Winterhalter, Wade E.

    2011-09-01

    Global climate change is expected to impact biological populations through a variety of mechanisms including increases in the length of their growing season. Climate models are useful tools for predicting how season length might change in the future. However, the accuracy of these models tends to be rather low at regional geographic scales. Here, I determined the ability of several atmosphere and ocean general circulating models (AOGCMs) to accurately simulate historical season lengths for a temperate ectotherm across the continental United States. I also evaluated the effectiveness of regional-scale correction factors to improve the accuracy of these models. I foundmore » that both the accuracy of simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of the correction factors to improve the model's accuracy varied geographically and across models. These results suggest that regional specific correction factors do not always adequately remove potential discrepancies between simulated and historically observed environmental parameters. As such, an explicit evaluation of the correction factors' effectiveness should be included in future studies of global climate change's impact on biological populations.« less

  3. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Jana; Luderer, Gunnar; Ashina, Shuichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Kitous, Alban; Mejean, Aurelie; Paroussos, Leonidas; Sano, Fuminori; Turton, Hal; Wilson, Charlie; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economic systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. This article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of integrated assessment models to classify differences among models based on their carbon price responses. Model diagnostics can uncover patterns and provide insights into why, under a given scenario, certain types of models behave in observed ways. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study with 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to more easily explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

  4. Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy | Argonne Leadership Computing

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Facility a Category 5 hurricane simulated by the CESM at 13 km resolution An example of a Category 5 hurricane simulated by the CESM at 13 km resolution. Precipitable water (gray scale) shows the detailed dynamical structure in the flow. Strong precipitation is overlaid in red. High resolution is necessary to simulate reasonable numbers of tropical cyclones including Category 4 and 5 storms. Credit: Alan Scott and Mark Taylor, Sandia National Laboratories Accelerated Climate Modeling for

  5. Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy | Argonne Leadership Computing

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Facility An example of a Category 5 hurricane simulated by the CESM at 13 km resolution An example of a Category 5 hurricane simulated by the CESM at 13 km resolution. Precipitable water (gray scale) shows the detailed dynamical structure in the flow. Strong precipitation is overlaid in red. High resolution is necessary to simulate reasonable numbers of tropical cyclones including Category 4 and 5 storms. Alan Scott and Mark Taylor, Sandia National Laboratories Accelerated Climate Modeling

  6. Comparing Climate Models to Real World Shows Differences in Precipitation

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Intensity | U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC) Comparing Climate Models to Real World Shows Differences in Precipitation Intensity Biological and Environmental Research (BER) BER Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Searchable Archive of BER Highlights External link Benefits of BER Funding Opportunities Biological & Environmental Research Advisory Committee (BERAC) Community Resources Contact Information Biological and Environmental Research U.S. Department of Energy

  7. Final Report for High Latitude Climate Modeling: ARM Takes Us Beyond Case Studies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Russell, Lynn M

    2013-06-18

    The main thrust of this project was to devise a method by which the majority of North Slope of Alaska (NSA) meteorological and radiometric data, collected on a daily basis, could be used to evaluate and improve global climate model (GCM) simulations and their parameterizations, particularly for cloud microphysics. Although the standard ARM Program sensors for a less complete suite of instruments for cloud and aerosol studies than the instruments on an intensive field program such as the 2008 Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), the advantage they offer lies in the long time base and large volume of data that covers a wide range of meteorological and climatological conditions. The challenge has been devising a method to interpret the NSA data in a practical way, so that a wide variety of meteorological conditions in all seasons can be examined with climate models. If successful, climate modelers would have a robust alternative to the usual “case study” approach (i.e., from intensive field programs only) for testing and evaluating their parameterizations’ performance. Understanding climate change on regional scales requires a broad scientific consideration of anthropogenic influences that goes beyond greenhouse gas emissions to also include aerosol-induced changes in cloud properties. For instance, it is now clear that on small scales, human-induced aerosol plumes can exert microclimatic radiative and hydrologic forcing that rivals that of greenhouse gas–forced warming. This project has made significant scientific progress by investigating what causes successive versions of climate models continue to exhibit errors in cloud amount, cloud microphysical and radiative properties, precipitation, and radiation balance, as compared with observations and, in particular, in Arctic regions. To find out what is going wrong, we have tested the models' cloud representation over the full range of meteorological conditions found in the Arctic using the ARM

  8. Microbial dormancy improves development and experimental validation of ecosystem model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Wang, Gangsheng; Jagadamma, Sindhu; Mayes, Melanie; Schadt, Christopher Warren; Steinweg, Jessica M.; Gu, Lianhong; Post, Wilfred M.

    2014-07-11

    Climate feedbacks from soils can result from environmental change followed by response of plant and microbial communities, and/or associated changes in nutrient cycling. Explicit consideration of microbial life history traits and functions may be necessary to predict climate feedbacks due to changes in the physiology and community composition of microbes and their associated effect on carbon cycling. Here, we enhanced the Microbial-Enzyme-mediated Decomposition (MEND) model by incorporating microbial dormancy and the ability to track multiple isotopes of carbon. We tested two versions of MEND, i.e., MEND with dormancy and MEND without dormancy, against long-term (270 d) lab incubations of fourmore » soils with isotopically-labeled substrates. MEND without dormancy adequately fitted multiple observations (total and 14C respiration, and dissolved organic carbon), but at the cost of significantly underestimating the total microbial biomass. The MEND with dormancy improved estimates of microbial biomass by 20 71% over the MEND without dormancy. We observed large differences for two fitted model parameters, the specific maintenance and growth rates for active microbes, depending on whether dormancy was considered. Together our model extrapolations of the incubation study show that long-term soil incubations with observations in multiple carbon pools are necessary to estimate both decomposition and microbial parameters. These efforts should provide essential support to future field- and global-scale simulations and enable more confident predictions of feedbacks between environmental change and carbon cycling.« less

  9. Microbial dormancy improves development and experimental validation of ecosystem model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Gangsheng; Jagadamma, Sindhu; Mayes, Melanie; Schadt, Christopher Warren; Steinweg, Jessica M; Gu, Lianhong; Post, Wilfred M

    2015-01-01

    Climate feedbacks from soils can result from environmental change followed by response of plant and microbial communities, and/or associated changes in nutrient cycling. Explicit consideration of microbial life history traits and functions may be necessary to predict climate feedbacks due to changes in the physiology and community composition of microbes and their associated effect on carbon cycling. Here, we enhanced the Microbial-Enzyme-mediated Decomposition (MEND) model by incorporating microbial dormancy and the ability to track multiple isotopes of carbon. We tested two versions of MEND, i.e., MEND with dormancy and MEND without dormancy, against long-term (270 d) lab incubations of four soils with isotopically-labeled substrates. MEND without dormancy adequately fitted multiple observations (total and 14C respiration, and dissolved organic carbon), but at the cost of significantly underestimating the total microbial biomass. The MEND with dormancy improved estimates of microbial biomass by 20 71% over the MEND without dormancy. We observed large differences for two fitted model parameters, the specific maintenance and growth rates for active microbes, depending on whether dormancy was considered. Together our model extrapolations of the incubation study show that long-term soil incubations with observations in multiple carbon pools are necessary to estimate both decomposition and microbial parameters. These efforts should provide essential support to future field- and global-scale simulations and enable more confident predictions of feedbacks between environmental change and carbon cycling.

  10. Regional Model Calibration for Improving Seismic Location

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Swenson, J.L.; Schultz, C.A.; Myers, S.C.

    2000-07-14

    Accurate seismic event location is integral to the effective monitoring of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), as well as being a fundamental component of earthquake source characterization. To account for the effects of crustal and mantle structure on seismic travel times, and to improve seismic event location in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), we are developing a set of radially heterogeneous and azimuthally invariant travel-time models of the crust and upper mantle for each MENA seismic station. We begin by developing an average one-dimensional velocity model that minimizes the P-phase travel-time residuals from regional through teleseismic distance at each station. To do this we (1) generate a suite of 1-D velocity models of the earth, (2) compute travel times through the 1-D models using a tau-p formulation to produce standard travel-time tables, and (3) minimize the root-mean-square (rms) residuals between the P-phase arrivals predicted by each model and a groomed set of ISC P-phase arrival times (Engdahl et al., 1991). Once we have an average one-dimensional velocity model that minimizes the P-phase travel-time residuals for all distances, we repeat steps 1 through 3, systematically perturbing the travel-time model and using a grid search procedure to optimize models within regional, upper mantle, and teleseismic distance ranges. Regionalized models are combined into one two-dimensional model, using indicator functions and smoother methodologies to reduce distance and depth discontinuity artifacts between the individual models. Preliminary results of this study at a subset of MENA stations show that we are improving predictability with these models. Cross-validating the travel-time predictions with an independent data set demonstrates a marked reduction in the variance of the travel-time model error distributions. We demonstrate the improvement provided by these 2-D models by relocating the 1991 Racha aftershock sequence. We will

  11. Climate implications of carbonaceous aerosols: An aerosol microphysical study using the GISS/MATRIX climate model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bauer, Susanne E.; Menon, Surabi; Koch, Dorothy; Bond, Tami; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2010-04-09

    Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a likely short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, cloud-indirect and semi-direct forcing effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and its climate interactions. Black carbon is directly released as particle into the atmosphere, but then interacts with other gases and particles through condensation and coagulation processes leading to further aerosol growth, aging and internal mixing. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the global GISS modelE includes the above processes that determine the lifecycle and climate impact of aerosols. This study presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative forcing. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative forcing change is -0.56 W/m{sup 2} between 1750 and 2000. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are very sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative forcing change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m{sup 2} depending on these carbonaceous particle properties. Assuming that sulfates, nitrates and secondary organics form a coating shell around a black carbon core, rather than forming a uniformly mixed particles, changes the overall net radiative forcing from a negative to a positive number. Black carbon mitigation scenarios showed generally a benefit when mainly black carbon sources such as diesel emissions are reduced, reducing organic and black carbon sources such as bio-fuels, does not lead to reduced warming.

  12. Reference aquaplanet climate in the Community Atmosphere Model, Version 5

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Medeiros, Brian; Williamson, David L.; Olson, Jerry G.

    2016-03-18

    In this study, fundamental characteristics of the aquaplanet climate simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model, Version 5.3 (CAM5.3) are presented. The assumptions and simplifications of the configuration are described. A 16 year long, perpetual equinox integration with prescribed SST using the model’s standard 18 grid spacing is presented as a reference simulation. Statistical analysis is presented that shows similar aquaplanet configurations can be run for about 2 years to obtain robust climatological structures, including global and zonal means, eddy statistics, and precipitation distributions. Such a simulation can be compared to the reference simulation to discern differences in the climate, includingmore » an assessment of confidence in the differences. To aid such comparisons, the reference simulation has been made available via earthsystemgrid.org. Examples are shown comparing the reference simulation with simulations from the CAM5 series that make different microphysical assumptions and use a different dynamical core.« less

  13. Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Andrews, Timothy; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Webb, Mark J.; Taylor, Karl E.

    2012-05-15

    We quantify forcing and feedbacks across available CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) by analysing simulations forced by an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. This is the first application of the linear forcing-feedback regression analysis of Gregory et al. (2004) to an ensemble of AOGCMs. The range of equilibrium climate sensitivity is 2.1–4.7 K. Differences in cloud feedbacks continue to be important contributors to this range. Some models show small deviations from a linear dependence of top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes on global surface temperature change. We show that this phenomenon largely arises from shortwave cloud radiative effects overmore » the ocean and is consistent with independent estimates of forcing using fixed sea-surface temperature methods. Moreover, we suggest that future research should focus more on understanding transient climate change, including any time-scale dependence of the forcing and/or feedback, rather than on the equilibrium response to large instantaneous forcing.« less

  14. World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3): Multi-Model Dataset Archive at PCMDI (Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    In response to a proposed activity of the WCRP's Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM),PCMDI volunteered to collect model output contributed by leading modeling centers around the world. Climate model output from simulations of the past, present and future climate was collected by PCMDI mostly during the years 2005 and 2006, and this archived data constitutes phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). In part, the WGCM organized this activity to enable those outside the major modeling centers to perform research of relevance to climate scientists preparing the Fourth Asssessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC was established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Program to assess scientific information on climate change. The IPCC publishes reports that summarize the state of the science. This unprecedented collection of recent model output is officially known as the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. It is meant to serve IPCC's Working Group 1, which focuses on the physical climate system - atmosphere, land surface, ocean and sea ice - and the choice of variables archived at the PCMDI reflects this focus. A more comprehensive set of output for a given model may be available from the modeling center that produced it. As of November 2007, over 35 terabytes of data were in the archive and over 303 terabytes of data had been downloaded among the more than 1200 registered users. Over 250 journal articles, based at least in part on the dataset, have been published or have been accepted for peer-reviewed publication. Countries from which models have been gathered include Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany and Korea, Italy, Japan, Norway, Russia, Great Britain and the United States. Models, variables, and documentation are collected and stored. Check http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/data_status_tables.htm to see at a glance the output that is available

  15. Influence of climate model biases and daily-scale temperature...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report concludes that climate change is now unequivocal, and associated increases in evaporation and atmospheric ...

  16. Final Report Collaborative Project. Improving the Representation of Coastal and Estuarine Processes in Earth System Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bryan, Frank; Dennis, John; MacCready, Parker; Whitney, Michael

    2015-11-20

    This project aimed to improve long term global climate simulations by resolving and enhancing the representation of the processes involved in the cycling of freshwater through estuaries and coastal regions. This was a collaborative multi-institution project consisting of physical oceanographers, climate model developers, and computational scientists. It specifically targeted the DOE objectives of advancing simulation and predictive capability of climate models through improvements in resolution and physical process representation. The main computational objectives were: 1. To develop computationally efficient, but physically based, parameterizations of estuary and continental shelf mixing processes for use in an Earth System Model (CESM). 2. To develop a two-way nested regional modeling framework in order to dynamically downscale the climate response of particular coastal ocean regions and to upscale the impact of the regional coastal processes to the global climate in an Earth System Model (CESM). 3. To develop computational infrastructure to enhance the efficiency of data transfer between specific sources and destinations, i.e., a point-to-point communication capability, (used in objective 1) within POP, the ocean component of CESM.

  17. Climate Model Datasets on Earth System Grid II (ESG II)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Earth System Grid (ESG) is a project that combines the power and capacity of supercomputers, sophisticated analysis servers, and datasets on the scale of petabytes. The goal is to provide a seamless distributed environment that allows scientists in many locations to work with large-scale data, perform climate change modeling and simulation,and share results in innovative ways. Though ESG is more about the computing environment than the data, still there are several catalogs of data available at the web site that can be browsed or search. Most of the datasets are restricted to registered users, but several are open to any access.

  18. Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results This presentation by ...

  19. Dataset used to improve liquid water absorption models in the...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Dataset used to improve liquid water absorption models in the microwave Title: Dataset used to improve liquid water absorption models in the microwave Two datasets, one a ...

  20. Improvements to mixture level tracking model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weaver, W.L.

    1996-04-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present the results of the testing of the recent improvements made to the two-phase level tracking model in RELAP5/MOD3.2. The level model was originally developed during the development of the TRAC-BWR computer code and was subsequently modified by the Pennsylvania State University (PSU). The modifications developed at PSU concern the way in which the two-phase level is moved from volume to volume as the thermal-hydraulic conditions in the system being simulated change during the course of a transients. The other components in the level tracking model remain as described in the original implementation of the model.

  1. Arctic Climate Measurements

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable ... Arctic Climate Measurements Global Climate Models Software Sustainable Subsurface ...

  2. Regional Climate Effects of Aerosols Over China: Modeling and Observation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qian, Yun; Leung, Lai R.; Ghan, Steven J.; Giorgi, Filippo

    2003-09-01

    We present regional simulations of aerosol properties, direct radiative forcing and aerosol climatic effects over China, and compare the simulations with observed aerosol characteristics and climatic data over the region. The climate simulations are performed with a regional climate model, which is shown to capture the spatial distribution and seasonal pattern of temperature and precipitation. Aerosol concentrations are obtained from a global tracer-transport model and are provided to the regional model for the calculation of radiative forcing. Different aerosols are included: sulfate, organic carbon, black carbon, mineral dust, and sea salt and MSA particles. Generally, the aerosol optical depth is well simulated in both magnitude and spatial distribution. The direct radiative forcing of the aerosol is in the range of –1 to –14 W m-2 in autumn and summer and -1 to –9 W m-2 in spring and winter, with substantial spatial variability at the regional scale. A strong maximum in aerosol optical depth and negative radiative forcing is found over the Sichuan Basin. The negative radiative forcing of aerosol induces a surface cooling in the range of –0.6 to –1.2oC in autumn and winter, –0.3 to –0.6oC in spring and 0.0 to –0.9oC in summer throughout East China. The aerosol-induced cooling is mainly due to a decrease in day-time maximum temperature. The cooling is maximum and is statistically significant over the Sichuan Basin. The effect of aerosol on precipitation is not evident in our simulations. The temporal and spatial patterns of the temperature trends observed in the second half of the twentieth century, including different trends for daily maximum and minimum temperature, are at least qualitatively consistent with the simulated aerosol-induced cooling over the Sichuan Basin and East China. This result supports the hypothesis that the observed temperature trends during the latter decades of the twentieth century, especially the cooling trends over the

  3. New climate model predicts likelihood of Greenland ice melt, sea level rise

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    and dangerous temperatures New climate model predicts likelihood of Greenland ice melt New climate model predicts likelihood of Greenland ice melt, sea level rise and dangerous temperatures A new computer model of accumulated carbon emissions predicts the likelihood of crossing several dangerous climate change thresholds. November 20, 2015 Greenland ice loss. Greenland ice loss. Contact Kevin Roark Communications Office (505) 665-9202 Email "The model is based on idealized

  4. A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science The objective of this award was to build a scalable and extensible Earth System Model that can be used to study climate change science. That objective has been achieved with the public release of the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). In particular, the

  5. Atmospheric Properties from the 2006 Niamey Deployment and Climate Simulation with a Geodesic Grid Coupled Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jensen, M; Johnson, K; Mather, J; Randall, D

    2008-03-01

    In 2008, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program and the Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP) have been asked to produce joint science metrics. For CCPP, the metrics will deal with a decade-long control simulation using geodesic grid-coupled climate model. For ARM, the metrics will deal with observations associated with the 2006 deployment of the ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) to Niamey, Niger. Specifically, ARM has been asked to deliver data products for Niamey that describe cloud, aerosol, and dust properties.

  6. Climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2 - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Energy Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy Nuclear

  7. Climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Energy Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy Nuclear

  8. Climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    4 - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Energy Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy Nuclear

  9. Climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    5 - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Energy Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy Nuclear

  10. ENERGY INVESTMENTS UNDER CLIMATE POLICY: A COMPARISON OF GLOBAL MODELS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCollum, David; Nagai, Yu; Riahi, Keywan; Marangoni, Giacomo; Calvin, Katherine V.; Pietzcker, Robert; Van Vliet, Jasper; van der Zwaan, Bob

    2013-11-01

    The levels of investment needed to mobilize an energy system transformation and mitigate climate change are not known with certainty. This paper aims to inform the ongoing dialogue and in so doing to guide public policy and strategic corporate decision making. Within the framework of the LIMITS integrated assessment model comparison exercise, we analyze a multi-IAM ensemble of long-term energy and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Our study provides insight into several critical but uncertain areas related to the future investment environment, for example in terms of where capital expenditures may need to flow regionally, into which sectors they might be concentrated, and what policies could be helpful in spurring these financial resources. We find that stringent climate policies consistent with a 2C climate change target would require a considerable upscaling of investments into low-carbon energy and energy efficiency, reaching approximately $45 trillion (range: $30$75 trillion) cumulative between 2010 and 2050, or about $1.1 trillion annually. This represents an increase of some $30 trillion ($10$55 trillion), or $0.8 trillion per year, beyond what investments might otherwise be in a reference scenario that assumes the continuation of present and planned emissions-reducing policies throughout the world. In other words, a substantial "clean-energy investment gap" of some $800 billion/yr exists notably on the same order of magnitude as present-day subsidies for fossil energy and electricity worldwide ($523 billion). Unless the gap is filled rather quickly, the 2C target could potentially become out of reach.

  11. Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol-climate model intercomparison studies

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.

    2014-04-24

    Nudging is an assimilation technique widely used in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosolmore » concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on longwave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects through ice clouds, since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.« less

  12. Towards the Prediction of Decadal to Centennial Climate Processes in the Coupled Earth System Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, Zhengyu; Kutzbach, J.; Jacob, R.; Prentice, C.

    2011-12-05

    In this proposal, we have made major advances in the understanding of decadal and long term climate variability. (a) We performed a systematic study of multidecadal climate variability in FOAM-LPJ and CCSM-T31, and are starting exploring decadal variability in the IPCC AR4 models. (b) We develop several novel methods for the assessment of climate feedbacks in the observation. (c) We also developed a new initialization scheme DAI (Dynamical Analogue Initialization) for ensemble decadal prediction. (d) We also studied climate-vegetation feedback in the observation and models. (e) Finally, we started a pilot program using Ensemble Kalman Filter in CGCM for decadal climate prediction.

  13. What is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, M. L.; Rajagopalan, K.; Chung, S. H.; Jiang, X.; Harrison, J. H.; Nergui, T.; Guenther, Alex B.; Miller, C.; Reyes, J.; Tague, C. L.; Choate, J. S.; Salathe, E.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Adam, J. C.

    2014-05-16

    Regional climate change impact (CCI) studies have widely involved downscaling and bias-correcting (BC) Global Climate Model (GCM)-projected climate for driving land surface models. However, BC may cause uncertainties in projecting hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to future climate due to the impaired spatiotemporal covariance of climate variables and a breakdown of physical conservation principles. Here we quantify the impact of BC on simulated climate-driven changes in water variables(evapotranspiration, ET; runoff; snow water equivalent, SWE; and water demand for irrigation), crop yield, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC), nitric oxide (NO) emissions, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) Region. We also quantify the impacts on net primary production (NPP) over a small watershed in the region (HJ Andrews). Simulation results from the coupled ECHAM5/MPI-OM model with A1B emission scenario were firstly dynamically downscaled to 12 km resolutions with WRF model. Then a quantile mapping based statistical downscaling model was used to downscale them into 1/16th degree resolution daily climate data over historical and future periods. Two series climate data were generated according to the option of bias-correction (i.e. with bias-correction (BC) and without bias-correction, NBC). Impact models were then applied to estimate hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to both BC and NBC meteorological datasets. These im20 pact models include a macro-scale hydrologic model (VIC), a coupled cropping system model (VIC-CropSyst), an ecohydrologic model (RHESSys), a biogenic emissions model (MEGAN), and a nutrient export model (Global-NEWS). Results demonstrate that the BC and NBC climate data provide consistent estimates of the climate-driven changes in water fluxes (ET, runoff, and water demand), VOCs (isoprene and monoterpenes) and NO emissions, mean crop yield, and river DIN export over the PNW domain. However

  14. Representation of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) CAM4-chem within the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI)

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Tilmes, Simone; Lamarque, Jean -Francois; Emmons, Louisa K.; Kinnison, Doug E.; Marsh, Dan; Garcia, Rolando R.; Smith, Anne K.; Neely, Ryan R.; Conley, Andrew; Vitt, Francis; et al

    2016-05-20

    The Community Earth System Model (CESM1) CAM4-chem has been used to perform the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) reference and sensitivity simulations. In this model, the Community Atmospheric Model version 4 (CAM4) is fully coupled to tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. Details and specifics of each configuration, including new developments and improvements are described. CESM1 CAM4-chem is a low-top model that reaches up to approximately 40 km and uses a horizontal resolution of 1.9° latitude and 2.5° longitude. For the specified dynamics experiments, the model is nudged to Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis. We summarize the performance ofmore » the three reference simulations suggested by CCMI, with a focus on the last 15 years of the simulation when most observations are available. Comparisons with selected data sets are employed to demonstrate the general performance of the model. We highlight new data sets that are suited for multi-model evaluation studies. Most important improvements of the model are the treatment of stratospheric aerosols and the corresponding adjustments for radiation and optics, the updated chemistry scheme including improved polar chemistry and stratospheric dynamics and improved dry deposition rates. These updates lead to a very good representation of tropospheric ozone within 20 % of values from available observations for most regions. In particular, the trend and magnitude of surface ozone is much improved compared to earlier versions of the model. Furthermore, stratospheric column ozone of the Southern Hemisphere in winter and spring is reasonably well represented. In conclusion, all experiments still underestimate CO most significantly in Northern Hemisphere spring and show a significant underestimation of hydrocarbons based on surface observations.« less

  15. Short-term Time Step Convergence in a Climate Model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Taylor, Mark; Jablonowski, Christiane

    2015-02-11

    A testing procedure is designed to assess the convergence property of a global climate model with respect to time step size, based on evaluation of the root-mean-square temperature difference at the end of very short (1 h) simulations with time step sizes ranging from 1 s to 1800 s. A set of validation tests conducted without sub-grid scale parameterizations confirmed that the method was able to correctly assess the convergence rate of the dynamical core under various configurations. The testing procedure was then applied to the full model, and revealed a slow convergence of order 0.4 in contrast to themore » expected first-order convergence. Sensitivity experiments showed without ambiguity that the time stepping errors in the model were dominated by those from the stratiform cloud parameterizations, in particular the cloud microphysics. This provides a clear guidance for future work on the design of more accurate numerical methods for time stepping and process coupling in the model.« less

  16. Short-term Time Step Convergence in a Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Taylor, Mark; Jablonowski, Christiane

    2015-02-11

    A testing procedure is designed to assess the convergence property of a global climate model with respect to time step size, based on evaluation of the root-mean-square temperature difference at the end of very short (1 h) simulations with time step sizes ranging from 1 s to 1800 s. A set of validation tests conducted without sub-grid scale parameterizations confirmed that the method was able to correctly assess the convergence rate of the dynamical core under various configurations. The testing procedure was then applied to the full model, and revealed a slow convergence of order 0.4 in contrast to the expected first-order convergence. Sensitivity experiments showed without ambiguity that the time stepping errors in the model were dominated by those from the stratiform cloud parameterizations, in particular the cloud microphysics. This provides a clear guidance for future work on the design of more accurate numerical methods for time stepping and process coupling in the model.

  17. Short-term time step convergence in a climate model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Taylor, Mark; Jablonowski, Christiane

    2015-02-11

    A testing procedure is designed to assess the convergence property of a global climate model with respect to time step size, based on evaluation of the root-mean-square temperature difference at the end of very short (1 h) simulations with time step sizes ranging from 1 s to 1800 s. A set of validation tests conducted without sub-grid scale parameterizations confirmed that the method was able to correctly assess the convergence rate of the dynamical core under various configurations. The testing procedure was then applied to the full model, and revealed a slow convergence of order 0.4 in contrast to themoreexpected first-order convergence. Sensitivity experiments showed without ambiguity that the time stepping errors in the model were dominated by those from the stratiform cloud parameterizations, in particular the cloud microphysics. This provides a clear guidance for future work on the design of more accurate numerical methods for time stepping and process coupling in the model.less

  18. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  19. Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol–climate model intercomparison studies

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.

    2014-08-26

    Nudging as an assimilation technique has seen increased use in recent years in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity ofmore » simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on long-wave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations, and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. Results from both CAM5 and a second aerosol–climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 also indicate that compared to the wind-and-temperature nudging, constraining only winds leads to better agreement with the free-running model in terms of the estimated shortwave cloud forcing and the simulated convective activities. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not

  20. Climate Model Response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Caldeira, Ken; Boucher, Olivier; Robock, Alan; Rasch, Philip J.; Alterskjaer, Kari; Bou Karam, Diana; Cole, Jason N.; Curry, Charles L.; Haywood, J.; Irvine, Peter; Ji, Duoying; Jones, A.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Lunt, Daniel; Moore, John; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Schulz, M.; Singh, Balwinder; Tilmes, S.; Watanabe, Shingo; Yang, Shuting; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2013-08-09

    Solar geoengineeringdeliberate reduction in the amount of solar radiation retained by the Earthhas been proposed as a means of counteracting some of the climatic effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We present results from Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which 12 climate models have simulated the climate response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial concentrations brought into radiative balance via a globally uniform reduction in insolation. Models show this reduction largely offsets global mean surface temperature increases due to quadrupled CO2 concentrations and prevents 97% of the Arctic sea ice loss that would otherwise occur under high CO2 levels but, compared to the preindustrial climate, leaves the tropics cooler (-0.3 K) and the poles warmer (+0.8 K). Annual mean precipitation minus evaporation anomalies for G1 are less than 0.2mmday-1 in magnitude over 92% of the globe, but some tropical regions receive less precipitation, in part due to increased moist static stability and suppression of convection. Global average net primary productivity increases by 120% in G1 over simulated preindustrial levels, primarily from CO2 fertilization, but also in part due to reduced plant heat stress compared to a high CO2 world with no geoengineering. All models show that uniform solar geoengineering in G1 cannot simultaneously return regional and global temperature and hydrologic cycle intensity to preindustrial levels.

  1. Intercomparison of the Cloud Water Phase among Global Climate Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Komurcu, Muge; Storelvmo, Trude; Tan, Ivy; Lohmann, U.; Yun, Yuxing; Penner, Joyce E.; Wang, Yong; Liu, Xiaohong; Takemura, T.

    2014-03-27

    Mixed-phase clouds (clouds that consist of both cloud droplets and ice crystals) are frequently present in the Earths atmosphere and influence the Earths energy budget through their radiative properties, which are highly dependent on the cloud water phase. In this study, the phase partitioning of cloud water is compared among six global climate models (GCMs) and with Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization retrievals. It is found that the GCMs predict vastly different distributions of cloud phase for a given temperature, and none of them are capable of reproducing the spatial distribution or magnitude of the observed phase partitioning. While some GCMs produced liquid water paths comparable to satellite observations, they all failed to preserve sufficient liquid water at mixed-phase cloud temperatures. Our results suggest that validating GCMs using only the vertically integrated water contents could lead to amplified differences in cloud radiative feedback. The sensitivity of the simulated cloud phase in GCMs to the choice of heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization is also investigated. The response to a change in ice nucleation is quite different for each GCM, and the implementation of the same ice nucleation parameterization in all models does not reduce the spread in simulated phase among GCMs. The results suggest that processes subsequent to ice nucleation are at least as important in determining phase and should be the focus of future studies aimed at understanding and reducing differences among the models.

  2. Introducing Enabling Computational Tools to the Climate Sciences: Multi-Resolution Climate Modeling with Adaptive Cubed-Sphere Grids

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jablonowski, Christiane

    2015-07-14

    The research investigates and advances strategies how to bridge the scale discrepancies between local, regional and global phenomena in climate models without the prohibitive computational costs of global cloud-resolving simulations. In particular, the research explores new frontiers in computational geoscience by introducing high-order Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) techniques into climate research. AMR and statically-adapted variable-resolution approaches represent an emerging trend for atmospheric models and are likely to become the new norm in future-generation weather and climate models. The research advances the understanding of multi-scale interactions in the climate system and showcases a pathway how to model these interactions effectively with advanced computational tools, like the Chombo AMR library developed at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The research is interdisciplinary and combines applied mathematics, scientific computing and the atmospheric sciences. In this research project, a hierarchy of high-order atmospheric models on cubed-sphere computational grids have been developed that serve as an algorithmic prototype for the finite-volume solution-adaptive Chombo-AMR approach. The foci of the investigations have lied on the characteristics of both static mesh adaptations and dynamically-adaptive grids that can capture flow fields of interest like tropical cyclones. Six research themes have been chosen. These are (1) the introduction of adaptive mesh refinement techniques into the climate sciences, (2) advanced algorithms for nonhydrostatic atmospheric dynamical cores, (3) an assessment of the interplay between resolved-scale dynamical motions and subgrid-scale physical parameterizations, (4) evaluation techniques for atmospheric model hierarchies, (5) the comparison of AMR refinement strategies and (6) tropical cyclone studies with a focus on multi-scale interactions and variable-resolution modeling. The results of this research project

  3. Multi-century Changes to Global Climate and Carbon Cycle: Results from a Coupled Climate and Carbon Cycle Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Mirin, A; Wickett, M; Delire, C

    2005-02-17

    In this paper, we use a coupled climate and carbon cycle model to investigate the global climate and carbon cycle changes out to year 2300 that would occur if CO{sub 2} emissions from all the currently estimated fossil fuel resources were released to the atmosphere. By year 2300, the global climate warms by about 8 K and atmospheric CO{sub 2} reaches 1423 ppmv. The warming is higher than anticipated because the sensitivity to radiative forcing increases as the simulation progresses. In our simulation, the rate of emissions peak at over 30 PgC yr{sup -1} early in the 22nd century. Even at year 2300, nearly 50% of cumulative emissions remain in the atmosphere. In our simulations both soils and living biomass are net carbon sinks throughout the simulation. Despite having relatively low climate sensitivity and strong carbon uptake by the land biosphere, our model projections suggest severe long-term consequences for global climate if all the fossil-fuel carbon is ultimately released to the atmosphere.

  4. Picture of the Week: The art of climate modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    eddy transport of heat within the ocean, a key component necessary to accurately simulate global climate change. Click here to share this picture, with several size options, from...

  5. LLNL Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    and relative to climate observations remain significant and poorly understood. The nature and causes of these disagreements must be accounted for in a systematic fashion in...

  6. Regional & Global Climate Modeling (RGCM) Program | U.S. DOE...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    and select coupled systems, such as water resources, critical for the energy mission. ... Regional focus: Analysis of the integrated water cycle as climate changes will be done in ...

  7. Atmospheric Properties from the 2006 Niamey Deployment and Climate Simulation with a Geodesic Grid Coupled Climate Model Third Quarter 2008

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    JH Mather; DA Randall; CJ Flynn

    2008-06-30

    In 2008, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program and the Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP) have been asked to produce joint science metrics. For CCPP, the metrics will deal with a decade-long control simulation using geodesic grid-coupled climate model. For ARM, the metrics will deal with observations associated with the 2006 deployment of the ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) to Niamey, Niger. Specifically, ARM has been asked to deliver data products for Niamey that describe cloud, aerosol, and dust properties. This report describes the aerosol optical depth (AOD) product.

  8. Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tavoni, Massimo; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Aboumahboub, Tino; Bowen, Alex; Calvin, Katherine V.; Campiglio, Emanuele; Kober, Tom; Jewell, Jessica; Luderer, Gunnar; Marangoni, Giacomo; McCollum, David; van Sluisveld, Mariesse; Zimmer, Anne; van der Zwaan, Bob

    2014-12-15

    Integrated assessment models can help in quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. This paper reviews scenario results from model intercomparison projects to explore different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to the 2°C target. We provide key information for all the major economies, such as the year of emission peaking, regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. We highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.

  9. Improving efficiency of a vehicle HVAC system with comfort modeling...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    HVAC system with comfort modeling, zonal design, and thermoelectric devices Improving efficiency of a vehicle HVAC system with comfort modeling, zonal design, and ...

  10. Data Collection for Improved Cold Temperature Thermal Modeling...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Modeling and Strategy Development Data Collection for Improved Cold Temperature Thermal Modeling and Strategy Development 2011 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program, and Vehicle ...

  11. Sandia Energy - Experiment for Improved Modeling of Trailing...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Experiment for Improved Modeling of Trailing-Edge Shedding Noise Home Renewable Energy Energy Water Power Partnership News News & Events Computational Modeling & Simulation...

  12. Evaluating Water Vapor in the NCAR CAM3 Climate Model with RRTMG...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Water Vapor in the NCAR CAM3 Climate Model with RRTMGMcICA using Modeled and Observed ... Objectives: * Evaluate water vapor and temperature simulation in two versions of CAM3 by ...

  13. Moisture Flux Convergence in Regional and Global Climate Models: Implications for Droughts in the Southwestern United States Under Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gao, Yanhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Salathe, E.; Dominguez, Francina; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-05-10

    The water cycle of the southwestern United States (SW) is dominated by winter storms that maintain a positive annual net precipitation. Analysis of the control and future climate from four pairs of regional and global climate models (RCMs and GCMs) shows that the RCMs simulate a higher fraction of transient eddy moisture fluxes because the hydrodynamic instabilities associated with flow over complex terrain are better resolved. Under global warming, this enables the RCMs to capture the response of transient eddies to increased atmospheric stability that allows more moisture to converge on the windward side of the mountains by blocking. As a result, RCMs simulate enhanced transient eddy moisture convergence in the SW compared to GCMs, although both robustly simulate drying due to enhanced moisture divergence by the divergent mean flow in a warmer climate. This enhanced convergence leads to reduced susceptibility to hydrological change in the RCMs compared to GCMs.

  14. AlliedSignal capability maturity model assessment & improvement processes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kuhn, C.

    1997-11-01

    This report contains viewgraphs on AlliedSignal capability maturity model assessment and improvement processes for software.

  15. climate

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    p>

    The research appears in the Dec. 10 edition of the journal Nature.

    models-overestimat...

  16. Progress Report 2008: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Drake, John B; Worley, Patrick H; Hoffman, Forrest M; Jones, Phil

    2009-01-01

    This project employs multi-disciplinary teams to accelerate development of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), based at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). A consortium of eight Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories collaborate with NCAR and the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). The laboratories are Argonne (ANL), Brookhaven (BNL) Los Alamos (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore (LLNL), Oak Ridge (ORNL), Pacific Northwest (PNNL) and Sandia (SNL). The work plan focuses on scalablity for petascale computation and extensibility to a more comprehensive earth system model. Our stated goal is to support the DOE mission in climate change research by helping ... To determine the range of possible climate changes over the 21st century and beyond through simulations using a more accurate climate system model that includes the full range of human and natural climate feedbacks with increased realism and spatial resolution.

  17. Parallel community climate model: Description and user`s guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Drake, J.B.; Flanery, R.E.; Semeraro, B.D.; Worley, P.H.

    1996-07-15

    This report gives an overview of a parallel version of the NCAR Community Climate Model, CCM2, implemented for MIMD massively parallel computers using a message-passing programming paradigm. The parallel implementation was developed on an Intel iPSC/860 with 128 processors and on the Intel Delta with 512 processors, and the initial target platform for the production version of the code is the Intel Paragon with 2048 processors. Because the implementation uses a standard, portable message-passing libraries, the code has been easily ported to other multiprocessors supporting a message-passing programming paradigm. The parallelization strategy used is to decompose the problem domain into geographical patches and assign each processor the computation associated with a distinct subset of the patches. With this decomposition, the physics calculations involve only grid points and data local to a processor and are performed in parallel. Using parallel algorithms developed for the semi-Lagrangian transport, the fast Fourier transform and the Legendre transform, both physics and dynamics are computed in parallel with minimal data movement and modest change to the original CCM2 source code. Sequential or parallel history tapes are written and input files (in history tape format) are read sequentially by the parallel code to promote compatibility with production use of the model on other computer systems. A validation exercise has been performed with the parallel code and is detailed along with some performance numbers on the Intel Paragon and the IBM SP2. A discussion of reproducibility of results is included. A user`s guide for the PCCM2 version 2.1 on the various parallel machines completes the report. Procedures for compilation, setup and execution are given. A discussion of code internals is included for those who may wish to modify and use the program in their own research.

  18. Technical Note: On the Use of Nudging for Aerosol-Climate Model Intercomparison Studies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Kai; Wan, Hui; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, Po-Lun; Rasch, Philip J.; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, U.

    2014-08-26

    Nudging is an assimilation technique widely used in the development and evaluation of climate models. Con- straining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the artificial forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the relatively strong sensitivity of homogeneous ice nucleation to aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on longwave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. This suggests that nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy, especially for studies that involve both warm and cold clouds.

  19. Zooming in: From global to regional climate models | Argonne...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    to explore climate changes that occur on a diurnal scale, such as thunderstorms or urban heat islands. With Mira, approximately 1 million core-hours are needed to run a one-year...

  20. World's largest climate research site pilots integrated modeling...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    at the Southern Great Plains site. Image courtesy of the U.S. Department of Energy ARM Climate Research Facility; click to view larger. A graphic illustrating new data collection...

  1. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Richardson, Andrew D.

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  2. Improved computer models support genetics research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    February Simple computer models unravel genetic stress reactions in cells Simple computer models unravel genetic stress reactions in cells Integrated biological and...

  3. A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment designed for climate and chemistry models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tilmes, S.; Mills, Mike; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Robock, Alan; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Lamarque, J. F.; Pitari, G.; English, J. M.

    2015-01-15

    A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment "G4 specified stratospheric aerosols" (short name: G4SSA) is proposed to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on atmosphere, chemistry, dynamics, climate, and the environment. In contrast to the earlier G4 GeoMIP experiment, which requires an emission of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) into the model, a prescribed aerosol forcing file is provided to the community, to be consistently applied to future model experiments between 2020 and 2100. This stratospheric aerosol distribution, with a total burden of about 2 Tg S has been derived using the ECHAM5-HAM microphysical model, based on a continuous annual tropical emission of 8 Tg SO₂ yr⁻¹. A ramp-up of geoengineering in 2020 and a ramp-down in 2070 over a period of 2 years are included in the distribution, while a background aerosol burden should be used for the last 3 decades of the experiment. The performance of this experiment using climate and chemistry models in a multi-model comparison framework will allow us to better understand the impact of geoengineering and its abrupt termination after 50 years in a changing environment. The zonal and monthly mean stratospheric aerosol input data set is available at https://www2.acd.ucar.edu/gcm/geomip-g4-specified-stratospheric-aerosol-data-set.

  4. A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment designed for climate and chemistry models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Tilmes, S.; Mills, Mike; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Robock, Alan; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Lamarque, J. F.; Pitari, G.; English, J. M.

    2015-01-15

    A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment "G4 specified stratospheric aerosols" (short name: G4SSA) is proposed to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on atmosphere, chemistry, dynamics, climate, and the environment. In contrast to the earlier G4 GeoMIP experiment, which requires an emission of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) into the model, a prescribed aerosol forcing file is provided to the community, to be consistently applied to future model experiments between 2020 and 2100. This stratospheric aerosol distribution, with a total burden of about 2 Tg S has been derived using the ECHAM5-HAM microphysical model, based on a continuous annualmore » tropical emission of 8 Tg SO₂ yr⁻¹. A ramp-up of geoengineering in 2020 and a ramp-down in 2070 over a period of 2 years are included in the distribution, while a background aerosol burden should be used for the last 3 decades of the experiment. The performance of this experiment using climate and chemistry models in a multi-model comparison framework will allow us to better understand the impact of geoengineering and its abrupt termination after 50 years in a changing environment. The zonal and monthly mean stratospheric aerosol input data set is available at https://www2.acd.ucar.edu/gcm/geomip-g4-specified-stratospheric-aerosol-data-set.« less

  5. A Better Way to ID Extreme Weather Events in Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    A Better Way to ID Extreme Weather Events in Climate Models A Better Way to ID Extreme Weather Events in Climate Models Berkeley Lab scientists help automate the search for hurricanes and other storms in huge datasets December 7, 2011 Dan Krotz, dakrotz@lbl.gov, +1 510-486-4019 You'd think that spotting a category 5 hurricane would never be difficult. But when the hurricane is in a global climate model that spans several decades, it becomes a fleeting wisp among mountains of data. That's a

  6. The use of imprecise processing to improve accuracy in weather and climate prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dben, Peter D.; McNamara, Hugh; Palmer, T.N.

    2014-08-15

    The use of stochastic processing hardware and low precision arithmetic in atmospheric models is investigated. Stochastic processors allow hardware-induced faults in calculations, sacrificing bit-reproducibility and precision in exchange for improvements in performance and potentially accuracy of forecasts, due to a reduction in power consumption that could allow higher resolution. A similar trade-off is achieved using low precision arithmetic, with improvements in computation and communication speed and savings in storage and memory requirements. As high-performance computing becomes more massively parallel and power intensive, these two approaches may be important stepping stones in the pursuit of global cloud-resolving atmospheric modelling. The impact of both hardware induced faults and low precision arithmetic is tested using the Lorenz '96 model and the dynamical core of a global atmosphere model. In the Lorenz '96 model there is a natural scale separation; the spectral discretisation used in the dynamical core also allows large and small scale dynamics to be treated separately within the code. Such scale separation allows the impact of lower-accuracy arithmetic to be restricted to components close to the truncation scales and hence close to the necessarily inexact parametrised representations of unresolved processes. By contrast, the larger scales are calculated using high precision deterministic arithmetic. Hardware faults from stochastic processors are emulated using a bit-flip model with different fault rates. Our simulations show that both approaches to inexact calculations do not substantially affect the large scale behaviour, provided they are restricted to act only on smaller scales. By contrast, results from the Lorenz '96 simulations are superior when small scales are calculated on an emulated stochastic processor than when those small scales are parametrised. This suggests that inexact calculations at the small scale could reduce computation and

  7. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lettenmaier, Dennis P

    2013-04-08

    Primary activities are reported in these areas: climate system component studies via one-way coupling experiments; development of the Regional Arctic Climate System Model (RACM); and physical feedback studies focusing on changes in Arctic sea ice using the fully coupled model.

  8. A Study of Longwave Radiation Codes for Climate Studies: Validation with ARM Observations and Tests in General Circulation Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robert G. Ellingson

    2004-09-28

    One specific goal of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) program is to improve the treatment of radiative transfer in General Circulation Models (GCMs) under clear-sky, general overcast and broken cloud conditions. Our project was geared to contribute to this goal by attacking major problems associated with one of the dominant radiation components of the problem --longwave radiation. The primary long-term project objectives were to: (1) develop an optimum longwave radiation model for use in GCMs that has been calibrated with state-of-the-art observations for clear and cloudy conditions, and (2) determine how the longwave radiative forcing with an improved algorithm contributes relatively in a GCM when compared to shortwave radiative forcing, sensible heating, thermal advection and convection. The approach has been to build upon existing models in an iterative, predictive fashion. We focused on comparing calculations from a set of models with operationally observed data for clear, overcast and broken cloud conditions. The differences found through the comparisons and physical insights have been used to develop new models, most of which have been tested with new data. Our initial GCM studies used existing GCMs to study the climate model-radiation sensitivity problem. Although this portion of our initial plans was curtailed midway through the project, we anticipate that the eventual outcome of this approach will provide both a better longwave radiative forcing algorithm and from our better understanding of how longwave radiative forcing influences the model equilibrium climate, how improvements in climate prediction using this algorithm can be achieved.

  9. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    TWPC3) Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC3) The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file contains a best estimate of several ...

  10. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    TWPC2) Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC2) The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file contains a best estimate of several ...

  11. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1) Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1) The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file contains a best estimate ...

  12. A Better Way to ID Extreme Weather Events in Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    develop ever-more sophisticated computer models to predict the effects of climate change, one of the things they'll look for are changes in the frequency of extreme weather...

  13. Modelling vegetation dynamics at global scale due to climate changes: Comparison of two approaches

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Belotelov, N.V.; Bogatyrev, B.G.; Lobanov, A.I.

    1996-12-31

    Climate changes will influence vegetation dynamics. One of the ways of forecasting these changes is the creation of mathematical models describing vegetation dynamics. Computer experiments can then be conducted under climate change scenarios. Two main approaches are used to create such models. The first approach is based on a bioclimatic dynamic approach. The second approach is based on modelling the main eco-physiological processes. The bioclimatic dynamic approach consists of hypotheses about vegetation types or biomes, and their interrelationships with climate. In the eco-physiological approach, a detailed description of the processes, such as production, mortality, plants migration and their competition is presented. A number of computer experiments has been conducted for several climatic scenario for Russia and the whole world. A qualitative comparison of the results with the results of an earlier bioclimatic model has been done.

  14. High-Resolution Modeling to Assess Tropical Cyclone Activity in Future Climate Regimes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lackmann, Gary

    2013-06-10

    Applied research is proposed with the following objectives: (i) to determine the most likely level of tropical cyclone intensity and frequency in future climate regimes, (ii) to provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty in these predictions, and (iii) to improve understanding of the linkage between tropical cyclones and the planetary-scale circulation. Current mesoscale weather forecasting models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are capable of simulating the full intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) with realistic structures. However, in order to accurately represent both the primary and secondary circulations in these systems, model simulations must be configured with sufficient resolution to explicitly represent convection (omitting the convective parameterization scheme). Most previous numerical studies of TC activity at seasonal and longer time scales have not utilized such explicit convection (EC) model runs. Here, we propose to employ the moving nest capability of WRF to optimally represent TC activity on a seasonal scale using a downscaling approach. The statistical results of a suite of these high-resolution TC simulations will yield a realistic representation of TC intensity on a seasonal basis, while at the same time allowing analysis of the feedback that TCs exert on the larger-scale climate system. Experiments will be driven with analyzed lateral boundary conditions for several recent Atlantic seasons, spanning a range of activity levels and TC track patterns. Results of the ensemble of WRF simulations will then be compared to analyzed TC data in order to determine the extent to which this modeling setup can reproduce recent levels of TC activity. Next, the boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature, tropopause height, and thermal/moisture profiles) from the recent seasons will be altered in a manner consistent with various future GCM/RCM scenarios, but that preserves the large-scale shear and incipient disturbance

  15. Continuous mutual improvement of macromolecular structure models...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ... Country of Publication: United States Language: English Subject: 59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES; 96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION structure determination; model quality; data ...

  16. User-Oriented Modeling Tools for Advanced Hybrid and Climate-Appropriate

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Rooftop Air Conditioners | Department of Energy User-Oriented Modeling Tools for Advanced Hybrid and Climate-Appropriate Rooftop Air Conditioners User-Oriented Modeling Tools for Advanced Hybrid and Climate-Appropriate Rooftop Air Conditioners Lead Performer: University of California, Davis - Davis, CA DOE Total Funding: $200,000 Cost Share: $339,515 Project Term: 2015 - 2017 Funding Opportunity: Building University Innovators and Leaders Development (BUILD) Funding Opportunity Announcement

  17. Modeling Climate-Water Impacts on Electricity Sector Capacity Expansion: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.

    2014-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to exacerbate water availability concerns for thermal power plant cooling, which is responsible for 41% of U.S. water withdrawals. This analysis describes an initial link between climate, water, and electricity systems using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity system capacity expansion model. Average surface water projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) data are applied to surface water rights available to new generating capacity in ReEDS, and electric sector growth is compared with and without climate-influenced water rights. The mean climate projection has only a small impact on national or regional capacity growth and water use because most regions have sufficient unappropriated or previously retired water rights to offset climate impacts. Climate impacts are notable in southwestern states that purchase fewer water rights and obtain a greater share from wastewater and other higher-cost water resources. The electric sector climate impacts demonstrated herein establish a methodology to be later exercised with more extreme climate scenarios and a more rigorous representation of legal and physical water availability.

  18. Atmospheric Properties from the 2006 Niamey Deployment and Climate Simulation with a Geodesic Grid Coupled Climate Model - First Quarter 2008

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    JH Mather; D Randall

    2007-12-30

    In 2008, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program and the Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP) have been asked to produce joint science metrics. For CCPP, the metrics will deal with a decade-long control simulation using geodesic grid-coupled climate model. For ARM, the metrics will deal with observations associated with the 2006 deployment of the ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) to Niamey, Niger. Specifically, ARM has been asked to deliver data products for Niamey that describe cloud, aerosol, and dust properties. The first quarter milestone is initial formulation of the algorithm to produce and make available, new continuous time series of retrieved cloud , aerosol and dust properties, based on results from the ARM Mobile Facility deployment in Niger, Africa. The first quarter milestone has been achieved.

  19. Energy Department Announces Funding to Improve Grid Resiliency and Climate Preparedness

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The Energy Department’s Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability announced that it is making up to $3.5 million in funding available for communities to deploy smart grid tools and technologies to advance climate preparedness and resiliency of the electricity delivery infrastructure. This Funding Opportunity supports the goals of other initiatives by the Administration to prepare the Nation for the impacts of climate change by providing funding to local and tribal governments.

  20. Improved models for synchrotron radiation sources in SHADOW ...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: Improved models for synchrotron radiation sources in SHADOW Citation ... DOE Contract Number: DE-AC02-98CH10886 Resource Type: Journal Article Resource Relation: ...

  1. Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Done, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka

    2012-06-01

    Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are presented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices. Capsule: "Combining dynamical modeling of high-impact weather using traditional regional climate models with statistical techniques allows for comprehensive sampling of the full distribution, uncertainty estimation, direct assessment of impacts, and increased confidence in future changes."

  2. Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, A.; Weaver, C. P.; Morefield, Philip; Huang, Jin; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Adams, P. J.; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, J.; Mahoney, Hardee

    2012-11-01

    Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices.

  3. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; et al

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmosphericmore » version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the

  4. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; Bleck, R.; Canuto, V.; Cheng, Y.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A. D.; Faluvegi, G.; Hansen, J. E.; Healy, R. J.; Kiang, N. Y.; Koch, D.; Lacis, A. A.; LeGrande, A. N.; Lerner, J.; Lo, K. K.; Menon, S.; Oinas, V.; Perlwitz, J.; Puma, M. J.; Rind, D.; Romanou, A.; Sato, M.; Shindell, D. T.; Sun, S.; Tsigaridis, K.; Unger, N.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yao, M. -S.; Zhang, Jinlun

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R

  5. Improved computer models support genetics research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    February » Simple computer models unravel genetic stress reactions in cells Simple computer models unravel genetic stress reactions in cells Integrated biological and computational methods provide insight into why genes are activated. February 8, 2013 When complete, these barriers will be a portion of the NMSSUP upgrade. This molecular structure depicts a yeast transfer ribonucleic acid (tRNA), which carries a single amino acid to the ribosome during protein construction. A combined

  6. Improved computer models support genetics research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Simple computer models unravel genetic stress reactions in cells Simple computer models unravel genetic stress reactions in cells Integrated biological and computational methods provide insight into why genes are activated. February 8, 2013 When complete, these barriers will be a portion of the NMSSUP upgrade. This molecular structure depicts a yeast transfer ribonucleic acid (tRNA), which carries a single amino acid to the ribosome during protein construction. A combined experimental and

  7. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO sub 2 and climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth's surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society's ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  8. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth`s surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society`s ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  9. The Role of Asia in Mitigating Climate Change: Results from the Asia Modeling Exercise

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Krey, Volker; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Jiang, Kejun; Kainuma, M.; Kriegler, Elmar; Luderer, Gunnar; Shukla, Priyadarshi R.

    2012-12-01

    In 2010, Asia accounted for 60% of global population, 39% of Gross World Product, 44% of global energy consumption and nearly half of the worlds energy system CO2 emissions. Thus, Asia is an important region to consider in any discussion of climate change or climate change mitigation. This paper explores the role of Asia in mitigating climate change, by comparing the results of 23 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. We focus our analysis on seven key areas: base year data, future energy use and emissions absent climate policy, the effect of urban and rural development on future energy use and emissions, the role of technology in emissions mitigation, regional emissions mitigation, and national climate policies

  10. Agriculture and Climate Change in Global Scenarios: Why Don't the Models Agree

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Gerald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Calvin, Katherine V.; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; Mueller, C.; Reilly, J. M.; Robertson, Richard; Sands, Ronald; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs makes direct use of weather inputs. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes of key variables such as prices, production, and trade. These divergent outcomes arise from differences in model inputs and model specification. The goal of this paper is to review climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By providing common productivity drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes are reduced. All models show higher prices in 2050 because of negative productivity shocks from climate change. The magnitude of the price increases, and the adaptation responses, differ significantly across the various models. Substantial differences exist in the structural parameters affecting demand, area, and yield, and should be a topic for future research.

  11. Perspective: The Climate-Population-Infrastructure Modeling and Simulation Fertile Area for New Research

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Allen, Melissa R; Fernandez, Steven J; Walker, Kimberly A; Fu, Joshua S

    2014-01-01

    Managing the risks posed by climate change and extreme weather to energy production and delivery is a challenge to communities worldwide. As climate conditions change, populations will shift, and demand will re-locate; and networked infrastructures will evolve to accommodate new load centers, and, hopefully, minimize vulnerability to natural disaster. Climate effects such as sea level rise, increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters, force populations to move locations. Displaced population creates new demand for built infrastructure that in turn generates new economic activity that attracts new workers and associated households to the new locations. Infrastructures and their interdependencies will change in reaction to climate drivers as the networks expand into new population areas and as portions of the networks are abandoned as people leave. Thus, infrastructures will evolve to accommodate new load centers while some parts of the network are underused, and these changes will create emerging vulnerabilities. Forecasting the location of these vulnerabilities by combining climate predictions and agent based population movement models shows promise for defining these future population distributions and changes in coastal infrastructure configurations. By combining climate and weather data, engineering algorithms and social theory it has been only recently possible to examine electricity demand response to increased climactic temperatures, population relocation in response to extreme cyclonic events, consequent net population changes and new regional patterns in electricity demand. These emerging results suggest a research agenda of coupling these disparate modelling approaches to understand the implications of climate change for protecting the nation s critical infrastructure.

  12. An Improved MUSIC Model for Gibbsite Surfaces

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mitchell, Scott C.; Bickmore, Barry R.; Tadanier, Christopher J.; Rosso, Kevin M.

    2004-06-01

    Here we use gibbsite as a model system with which to test a recently published, bond-valence method for predicting intrinsic pKa values for surface functional groups on oxides. At issue is whether the method is adequate when valence parameters for the functional groups are derived from ab initio structure optimization of surfaces terminated by vacuum. If not, ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations of solvated surfaces (which are much more computationally expensive) will have to be used. To do this, we had to evaluate extant gibbsite potentiometric titration data that where some estimate of edge and basal surface area was available. Applying BET and recently developed atomic force microscopy methods, we found that most of these data sets were flawed, in that their surface area estimates were probably wrong. Similarly, there may have been problems with many of the titration procedures. However, one data set was adequate on both counts, and we applied our method of surface pKa int prediction to fitting a MUSIC model to this data with considerable successseveral features of the titration data were predicted well. However, the model fit was certainly not perfect, and we experienced some difficulties optimizing highly charged, vacuum-terminated surfaces. Therefore, we conclude that we probably need to do AIMD simulations of solvated surfaces to adequately predict intrinsic pKa values for surface functional groups.

  13. Subgrid-Scale Mixing in Climate Models: A Novel Look at Diffusion, Accuracy, Stability and Climate Sensitivity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rood, Richard B; Jablonowski, Christiane

    2012-10-31

    This project focuses on evaluating the role of subgrid-scale dissipation in the dynamical core of atmospheric models. All dynamical cores of atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) employ some form of subgrid-scale dissipation, either explicitly specified or inherent in the chosen numerical schemes. The dissipation processes are needed to keep the simulation stable or to satisfy important physical properties, and the hope is that they capture and mimic in some poorly understood way the true processes at the unresolved subgrid scale. There is no physical basis that such dissipation can accomplish this. We originally posed a set of numerical test cases chosen or designed to isolate the role of the filters and fixers on both the dynamical variables (pressure, temperature, velocity, vorticity) and trace constituents. From these test case results, we synthesize the information to determine the impact of the subgrid-scale assumptions on weather and climate models.

  14. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic Using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassano, John

    2013-06-30

    The primary research task completed for this project was the development of the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). This involved coupling existing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land models using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) coupler (CPL7). RACM is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model, the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean model, the CICE sea ice model, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. A secondary research task for this project was testing and evaluation of WRF for climate-scale simulations on the large pan-Arctic model domain used in RACM. This involved identification of a preferred set of model physical parameterizations for use in our coupled RACM simulations and documenting any atmospheric biases present in RACM.

  15. Future changes in regional precipitation simulated by a half-degree coupled climate model: Sensitivity to horizontal resolution

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Shields, Christine A.; Kiehl, Jeffrey T.; Meehl, Gerald A.

    2016-06-02

    The global fully coupled half-degree Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) was integrated for a suite of climate change ensemble simulations including five historical runs, five Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 [RCP8.5) runs, and a long Pre-Industrial control run. This study focuses on precipitation at regional scales and its sensitivity to horizontal resolution. The half-degree historical CCSM4 simulations are compared to observations, where relevant, and to the standard 1° CCSM4. Both the halfdegree and 1° resolutions are coupled to a nominal 1° ocean. North American and South Asian/Indian monsoon regimes are highlighted because these regimes demonstrate improvements due to highermore » resolution, primarily because of better-resolved topography. Agriculturally sensitive areas are analyzed and include Southwest, Central, and Southeast U.S., Southern Europe, and Australia. Both mean and extreme precipitation is discussed for convective and large-scale precipitation processes. Convective precipitation tends to decrease with increasing resolution and large-scale precipitation tends to increase. Improvements for the half-degree agricultural regions can be found for mean and extreme precipitation in the Southeast U.S., Southern Europe, and Australian regions. Climate change responses differ between the model resolutions for the U.S. Southwest/Central regions and are seasonally dependent in the Southeast and Australian regions. Both resolutions project a clear drying signal across Southern Europe due to increased greenhouse warming. As a result, differences between resolutions tied to the representation of convective and large-scale precipitation play an important role in the character of the climate change and depend on regional influences.« less

  16. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science and Actuarial Practice" Read More Permalink New Project Is the ACME of Computer Science to Address Climate Change Analysis, Climate, Global Climate & Energy, Modeling, ...

  17. Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high-resolution models in the present climate

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kim, Daehyun; Kumar, Arun; LaRow, Timothy E.; Lim, Young -Kwon; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Reed, Kevin A.; et al

    2014-12-05

    The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TCmore » frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.« less

  18. Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high-resolution models in the present climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kim, Daehyun; Kumar, Arun; Lim, Young -Kwon; Reed, Kevin A.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Wang, Hui; Zhao, Ming; Henderson, Naomi

    2014-12-05

    The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.

  19. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Dale, V. H.; Rauscher, H. M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  20. Energy Department Invests Over $2 Million to Improve Grid Resiliency and Climate Preparedness

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On August 10, 2015, OE announced up to $2.5 million in funding to help four communities that have suffered a Presidentially Declared Major Disaster over the past 30 years better prepare for the future effects of a changing climate. This investment, funded through the Resilient Electricity Delivery Infrastructure Funding Opportunity Announcement, will allow communities in California, Colorado, Florida, and New York to deploy smart grid tools and technologies that can help prevent power outages, reduce storm impacts, and restore service faster.

  1. Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Done, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka

    2013-10-19

    Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are resented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices.

  2. Department of Energy Announces $7 Million in Funding for Climate...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    (ice and water) -to help improve the computer models that simulate climate change. ... clouds depending on the clouds' thickness, water content and particle sizes and shapes. ...

  3. An Evaluation of Unsaturated Flow Models in an Arid Climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dixon, J.

    1999-12-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of two unsaturated flow models in arid regions. The area selected for the study was the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) at the Nevada Test Site in Nye County, Nevada. The two models selected for this evaluation were HYDRUS-1D [Simunek et al., 1998] and the SHAW model [Flerchinger and Saxton, 1989]. Approximately 5 years of soil-water and atmospheric data collected from an instrumented weighing lysimeter site near the RWMS were used for building the models with actual initial and boundary conditions representative of the site. Physical processes affecting the site and model performance were explored. Model performance was based on a detailed sensitivity analysis and ultimately on storage comparisons. During the process of developing descriptive model input, procedures for converting hydraulic parameters for each model were explored. In addition, the compilation of atmospheric data collected at the site became a useful tool for developing predictive functions for future studies. The final model results were used to evaluate the capacities of the HYDRUS and SHAW models for predicting soil-moisture movement and variable surface phenomena for bare soil conditions in the arid vadose zone. The development of calibrated models along with the atmospheric and soil data collected at the site provide useful information for predicting future site performance at the RWMS.

  4. Atmospheric Properties from the 2006 Niamey Deployment and Climate Simulation with a Geodesic Grid Coupled Climate Model Fourth Quarter 2008

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    JH Mather; DA Randall; CJ Flynn

    2008-09-30

    In 2008, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program and the Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP) have been asked to produce joint science metrics. For CCPP, the metrics will deal with a decade-long control simulation using geodesic grid-coupled climate model. For ARM, the metrics will deal with observations associated with the 2006 deployment of the ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) to Niamey, Niger. Specifically, ARM has been asked to deliver data products for Niamey that describe cloud, aerosol, and dust properties. The first quarter milestone was the initial formulation of the algorithm for retrieval of these properties. The second quarter milestone included the time series of ARM-retrieved cloud properties and a year-long CCPP control simulation. The third quarter milestone included the time series of ARM-retrieved aerosol optical depth and a three-year CCPP control simulation. This final fourth quarter milestone includes the time-series of aerosol and dust properties and a decade-long CCPP control simulation.

  5. Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Technical Report: Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Authors: Talou, Patrick [1] ; Nazarewicz, Witold [2] ; Prinja, Anil [3] ; Danon, Yaron [4] + Show Author Affiliations Los Alamos National Laboratory University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA University of New Mexico, USA Rensselaer

  6. Using a Simple Binomial Model to Assess Improvement in Predictive

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Capability: Sequential Bayesian Inference, Hypothesis Testing, and Power Analysis (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Technical Report: Using a Simple Binomial Model to Assess Improvement in Predictive Capability: Sequential Bayesian Inference, Hypothesis Testing, and Power Analysis Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Using a Simple Binomial Model to Assess Improvement in Predictive Capability: Sequential Bayesian Inference, Hypothesis Testing, and Power Analysis We present a

  7. Improving Energy Efficiency by Developing Components for Distributed Cooling and Heating Based on Thermal Comfort Modeling

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Discusses comfort model enhancement/validation, climate system efficiency parameters and system trade off, and powertrain mode operation changes to further vehicle energy saving while preserving occupant comfort.

  8. Validation and quantification of uncertainty in coupled climate models using network analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bracco, Annalisa

    2015-08-10

    We developed a fast, robust and scalable methodology to examine, quantify, and visualize climate patterns and their relationships. It is based on a set of notions, algorithms and metrics used in the study of graphs, referred to as complex network analysis. This approach can be applied to explain known climate phenomena in terms of an underlying network structure and to uncover regional and global linkages in the climate system, while comparing general circulation models outputs with observations. The proposed method is based on a two-layer network representation, and is substantially new within the available network methodologies developed for climate studies. At the first layer, gridded climate data are used to identify ‘‘areas’’, i.e., geographical regions that are highly homogeneous in terms of the given climate variable. At the second layer, the identified areas are interconnected with links of varying strength, forming a global climate network. The robustness of the method (i.e. the ability to separate between topological distinct fields, while identifying correctly similarities) has been extensively tested. It has been proved that it provides a reliable, fast framework for comparing and ranking the ability of climate models of reproducing observed climate patterns and their connectivity. We further developed the methodology to account for lags in the connectivity between climate patterns and refined our area identification algorithm to account for autocorrelation in the data. The new methodology based on complex network analysis has been applied to state-of-the-art climate model simulations that participated to the last IPCC (International Panel for Climate Change) assessment to verify their performances, quantify uncertainties, and uncover changes in global linkages between past and future projections. Network properties of modeled sea surface temperature and rainfall over 1956–2005 have been constrained towards observations or reanalysis data sets

  9. Livermore research finds that climate models overestimate rainfall...

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Specifically, the team looked at 25 models and found they underestimate the increase in absorption of sunlight by water vapor as the atmosphere becomes moister, and therefore ...

  10. Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    The goal of this project is to produce accurate, consistent and comprehensive data sets ... (NCEP) and has been implemented in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. ...

  11. Accounting for Global Climate Model Projection Uncertainty in Modern Statistical Downscaling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johannesson, G

    2010-03-17

    Future climate change has emerged as a national and a global security threat. To carry out the needed adaptation and mitigation steps, a quantification of the expected level of climate change is needed, both at the global and the regional scale; in the end, the impact of climate change is felt at the local/regional level. An important part of such climate change assessment is uncertainty quantification. Decision and policy makers are not only interested in 'best guesses' of expected climate change, but rather probabilistic quantification (e.g., Rougier, 2007). For example, consider the following question: What is the probability that the average summer temperature will increase by at least 4 C in region R if global CO{sub 2} emission increases by P% from current levels by time T? It is a simple question, but one that remains very difficult to answer. It is answering these kind of questions that is the focus of this effort. The uncertainty associated with future climate change can be attributed to three major factors: (1) Uncertainty about future emission of green house gasses (GHG). (2) Given a future GHG emission scenario, what is its impact on the global climate? (3) Given a particular evolution of the global climate, what does it mean for a particular location/region? In what follows, we assume a particular GHG emission scenario has been selected. Given the GHG emission scenario, the current batch of the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is used to simulate future climate under this scenario, yielding an ensemble of future climate projections (which reflect, to some degree our uncertainty of being able to simulate future climate give a particular GHG scenario). Due to the coarse-resolution nature of the GCM projections, they need to be spatially downscaled for regional impact assessments. To downscale a given GCM projection, two methods have emerged: dynamical downscaling and statistical (empirical) downscaling (SDS). Dynamic downscaling involves

  12. Cloud/Aerosol Parameterizations: Application and Improvement of General Circulation Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Penner, Joyce

    2012-06-30

    One of the biggest uncertainties associated with climate models and climate forcing is the treatment of aerosols and their effects on clouds. The effect of aerosols on clouds can be divided into two components: The first indirect effect is the forcing associated with increases in droplet concentrations; the second indirect effect is the forcing associated with changes in liquid water path, cloud morphology, and cloud lifetime. Both are highly uncertain. This project applied a cloud-resolving model to understand the response of clouds under a variety of conditions to changes in aerosols. These responses are categorized according to the large-scale meteorological conditions that lead to the response. Meteorological conditions were sampled from various fields, which, together with a global aerosol model determination of the change in aerosols from present day to pre-industrial conditions, was used to determine a first order estimate of the response of global cloud fields to changes in aerosols. The response of the clouds in the NCAR CAM3 GCM coupled to our global aerosol model were tested by examining whether the response is similar to that of the cloud resolving model and methods for improving the representation of clouds and cloud/aerosol interactions were examined.

  13. Global warming and climate change - predictive models for temperate and tropical regions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Malini, B.H.

    1997-12-31

    Based on the assumption of 4{degree}C increase of global temperature by the turn of 21st century due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases an attempt is made to study the possible variations in different climatic regimes. The predictive climatic water balance model for Hokkaido island of Japan (a temperate zone) indicates the possible occurrence of water deficit for two to three months, which is a unknown phenomenon in this region at present. Similarly, India which represents tropical region also will experience much drier climates with increased water deficit conditions. As a consequence, the thermal region of Hokkaido which at present is mostly Tundra and Micro thermal will change into a Meso thermal category. Similarly, the moisture regime which at present supports per humid (A2, A3 and A4) and Humid (B4) climates can support A1, B4, B3, B2 and B1 climates indicating a shift towards drier side of the climatic spectrum. Further, the predictive modes of both the regions have indicated increased evapotranspiration rates. Although there is not much of change in the overall thermal characteristics of the Indian region the moisture regime indicates a clear shift towards the aridity in the country.

  14. Improving Comfort in Hot-Humid Climates with a Whole-House, Windermere...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Projected Energy Cost Savings: 53year Other Benefits: * Improved humidity control * ... Often the air conditioner (AC) thermostat set point is lower than the desirable cooling level ...

  15. Collaborative Proposal: Transforming How Climate System Models are Used: A Global, Multi-Resolution Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Estep, Donald

    2013-04-15

    Despite the great interest in regional modeling for both weather and climate applications, regional modeling is not yet at the stage that it can be used routinely and effectively for climate modeling of the ocean. The overarching goal of this project is to transform how climate models are used by developing and implementing a robust, efficient, and accurate global approach to regional ocean modeling. To achieve this goal, we will use theoretical and computational means to resolve several basic modeling and algorithmic issues. The first task is to develop techniques for transitioning between parameterized and high-fidelity regional ocean models as the discretization grid transitions from coarse to fine regions. The second task is to develop estimates for the error in scientifically relevant quantities of interest that provide a systematic way to automatically determine where refinement is needed in order to obtain accurate simulations of dynamic and tracer transport in regional ocean models. The third task is to develop efficient, accurate, and robust time-stepping schemes for variable spatial resolution discretizations used in regional ocean models of dynamics and tracer transport. The fourth task is to develop frequency-dependent eddy viscosity finite element and discontinuous Galerkin methods and study their performance and effectiveness for simulation of dynamics and tracer transport in regional ocean models. These four projects share common difficulties and will be approach using a common computational and mathematical toolbox. This is a multidisciplinary project involving faculty and postdocs from Colorado State University, Florida State University, and Penn State University along with scientists from Los Alamos National Laboratory. The completion of the tasks listed within the discussion of the four sub-projects will go a long way towards meeting our goal of developing superior regional ocean models that will transform how climate system models are used.

  16. Models and the paleo record of biome responses to glacial climate and CO2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prentice; Colin, I.; Haxeltine

    1995-06-01

    Continental-scale reconstructions of the distribution of biomes at the last glacial maximum (LGM) indicate big changes, which can primarily be explained by climate. The climate was different from today mainly because of a combination of low concentrations of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases and the presence of large continental ice sheets. Atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations, driven by these factors and linked to simple biome models in {open_quotes}diagnostic{close_quotes} mode, account for the broad outlines of the changes in vegetation patterns, including encroachment of C4 grasslands and savannas on what are now tropical forests. Physiological effects of low CO{sub 2} might also have played a role by altering the partitioning of precipitation to evapotranspiration and runoff, and altering the competitive balance of C3 and C4 plants. Such effects have not been quantified until recently, with the development of integrated biome/biochemistry models like those used in the VEMAP project. In these models, vegetation composition affects the coupled C and H{sub 2}O fluxes, which in turn influence the competitive balance of the constituent plant types. The relative importance of climatic and physiological effects of CO{sub 2} on biome distributions is a key issue for the future. This is gives added impetus to research that aims to exploit the potential of palaeo, data, through global data synthesis projects like BIOME 6000, to provide objective benchmarks against which to test models of the biosphere and climate.

  17. Community Climate System Model (CCSM) Experiments and Output Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    The CCSM web makes the source code of various versions of the model freely available and provides access to experiments that have been run and the resulting output data.

  18. Visualizing Life Zone Boundary Sensitivities Across Climate Models and Temporal Spans

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sisneros, Roberto R; Huang, Jian; Ostrouchov, George; Hoffman, Forrest M

    2011-01-01

    Life zones are a convenient and quantifiable method for delineating areas with similar plant and animal communities based on bioclimatic conditions. Such ecoregionalization techniques have proved useful for defining habitats and for studying how these habitats may shift due to environmental change. The ecological impacts of climate change are of particular interest. Here we show that visualizations of the geographic projection of life zones may be applied to the investigation of potential ecological impacts of climate change using the results of global climate model simulations. Using a multi-factor classification scheme, we show how life zones change over time based on quantitative model results into the next century. Using two straightforward metrics, we identify regions of high sensitivity to climate changes from two global climate simulations under two different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Finally, we identify how preferred human habitats may shift under these scenarios. We apply visualization methods developed for the purpose of displaying multivariate relationships within data, especially for situations that involve a large number of concurrent relationships. Our method is based on the concept of multivariate classification, and is implemented directly in VisIt, a production quality visualization package.

  19. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Team Attends World Water Week in Stockholm Climate, Energy, Global Climate & Energy, Modeling, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Water Security Sandia Team Attends World ...

  20. NREL Model Licensed to Improve Accuracy of Battery Simulations - News

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Releases | NREL Model Licensed to Improve Accuracy of Battery Simulations January 14, 2014 The Energy Department's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has licensed its Equivalent Circuit Battery Model to software developer ThermoAnalytics for use in its recently updated RadTherm software package. The model is a part of the Battery Module within RadTherm, which is used by engineers to simulate the performance of battery cells and optimize multi-cell pack designs. Before the addition

  1. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1 V4) Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1 V4) The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file contains a best ...

  2. Selected translated abstracts of Russian-language climate-change publications. 4: General circulation models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burtis, M.D.; Razuvaev, V.N.; Sivachok, S.G.

    1996-10-01

    This report presents English-translated abstracts of important Russian-language literature concerning general circulation models as they relate to climate change. Into addition to the bibliographic citations and abstracts translated into English, this report presents the original citations and abstracts in Russian. Author and title indexes are included to assist the reader in locating abstracts of particular interest.

  3. The impact of equilibrating hemispheric albedos on tropical performance in the HadGEM2-ES coupled climate model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Haywood, Jim M.; Jones, Andy; Dunstone, Nick; Milton, Sean; Vellinga, Michael; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; Hawcroft, Matt; Kravitz, Ben; Cole, Jason; Watanabe, Shingo; et al

    2016-01-14

    The Earth's hemispheric reflectances are equivalent to within ± 0.2 Wm–2, even though the Northern Hemisphere contains a greater proportion of higher reflectance land areas, because of greater cloud cover in the Southern Hemisphere. This equivalence is unlikely to be by chance, but the reasons are open to debate. Here we show that equilibrating hemispheric albedos in the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System coupled climate model significantly improves what have been considered longstanding and apparently intractable model biases. Monsoon precipitation biases over all continental land areas, the penetration of monsoon rainfall across the Sahel, the West Africanmore » monsoon “jump”, and indicators of hurricane frequency are all significantly improved. Mechanistically, equilibrating hemispheric albedos improves the atmospheric cross-equatorial energy transport and increases the supply of tropical atmospheric moisture to the Hadley cell. Furthermore, we conclude that an accurate representation of the cross-equatorial energy transport appears to be critical if tropical performance is to be improved.« less

  4. Simulation of the intraseasonal variability over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ in climate models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jiang, Xianan; Waliser, Duane E.; Kim, Daehyun; Zhao, Ming; Sperber, Kenneth R.; Stern, William F.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Zhang, Guang J.; Wang, Wanqiu; Khairoutdinov, Marat; Neale, Richard B.; Lee, Myong-In

    2012-08-01

    During boreal summer, convective activity over the eastern Pacific (EPAC) inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) exhibits vigorous intraseasonal variability (ISV). Previous observational studies identified two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC, i.e., a 40-day mode and a quasi-biweekly mode (QBM). The 40-day ISV mode is generally considered a local expression of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, in addition to the eastward propagation, northward propagation of the 40-day mode is also evident. The QBM mode bears a smaller spatial scale than the 40-day mode, and is largely characterized by northward propagation. While the ISV over the EPAC exerts significant influences on regional climate/weather systems, investigation of contemporary model capabilities in representing these ISV modes over the EPAC is limited. In this study, the model fidelity in representing these two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC is assessed by analyzing six atmospheric and three coupled general circulation models (GCMs), including one super-parameterized GCM (SPCAM) and one recently developed high-resolution GCM (GFDL HIRAM) with horizontal resolution of about 50 km. While it remains challenging for GCMs to faithfully represent these two ISV modes including their amplitude, evolution patterns, and periodicities, encouraging simulations are also noted. In general, SPCAM and HIRAM exhibit relatively superior skill in representing the two ISV modes over the EPAC. While the advantage of SPCAM is achieved through explicit representation of the cumulus process by the embedded 2-D cloud resolving models, the improved representation in HIRAM could be ascribed to the employment of a strongly entraining plume cumulus scheme, which inhibits the deep convection, and thus effectively enhances the stratiform rainfall. The sensitivity tests based on HIRAM also suggest that fine horizontal resolution could also be conducive to realistically capture the ISV over the EPAC, particularly for the QBM mode

  5. Global vegetation model diversity and the risks of climate-driven ecosystem shifts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2013-11-08

    Climate change is modifying global biogeochemical cycles, and is expected to exert increasingly large effects in the future. How these changes will in turn affect and interact with the structure and function of particular ecosystems is unclear, however, both because of scientific uncertainties and the very diversity of global vegetation models in use. Writing in Environmental Research Letters, Warszawski et al. (1) aggregate results from a group of models, across a range of emissions scenarios and climate data, to investigate these risks. Although the models frequently disagree about which specific regions are at risk, they consistently predict a greater chance of ecosystem restructuring with more warming; this risk roughly doubles between 2 and 3 °C increases in global mean temperature. The innovative work of Warszawski et al. represents an important first step towards fully consistent multi-model, multi-scenario assessments of the future risks to global ecosystems.

  6. Demonstrating the improvement of predictive maturity of a computational model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hemez, Francois M; Unal, Cetin; Atamturktur, Huriye S

    2010-01-01

    We demonstrate an improvement of predictive capability brought to a non-linear material model using a combination of test data, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and calibration. A model that captures increasingly complicated phenomena, such as plasticity, temperature and strain rate effects, is analyzed. Predictive maturity is defined, here, as the accuracy of the model to predict multiple Hopkinson bar experiments. A statistical discrepancy quantifies the systematic disagreement (bias) between measurements and predictions. Our hypothesis is that improving the predictive capability of a model should translate into better agreement between measurements and predictions. This agreement, in turn, should lead to a smaller discrepancy. We have recently proposed to use discrepancy and coverage, that is, the extent to which the physical experiments used for calibration populate the regime of applicability of the model, as basis to define a Predictive Maturity Index (PMI). It was shown that predictive maturity could be improved when additional physical tests are made available to increase coverage of the regime of applicability. This contribution illustrates how the PMI changes as 'better' physics are implemented in the model. The application is the non-linear Preston-Tonks-Wallace (PTW) strength model applied to Beryllium metal. We demonstrate that our framework tracks the evolution of maturity of the PTW model. Robustness of the PMI with respect to the selection of coefficients needed in its definition is also studied.

  7. Improving the representation of hydrologic processes in Earth System Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clark, Martyn P.; Fan, Ying; Lawrence, David M.; Adam, J. C.; Bolster, Diogo; Gochis, David; Hooper, Richard P.; Kumar, Mukesh; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Mackay, D. Scott; Maxwell, Reed M.; Shen, Chaopeng; Swenson, Sean C.; Zeng, Xubin

    2015-08-21

    Many of the scientific and societal challenges in understanding and preparing for global environmental change rest upon our ability to understand and predict the water cycle change at large river basin, continent, and global scales. However, current large-scale models, such as the land components of Earth System Models (ESMs), do not yet represent the terrestrial water cycle in a fully integrated manner or resolve the finer-scale processes that can dominate large-scale water budgets. This paper reviews the current representation of hydrologic processes in ESMs and identifies the key opportunities for improvement. This review suggests that (1) the development of ESMs has not kept pace with modeling advances in hydrology, both through neglecting key processes (e.g., groundwater) and neglecting key aspects of spatial variability and hydrologic connectivity; and (2) many modeling advances in hydrology can readily be incorporated into ESMs and substantially improve predictions of the water cycle. Accelerating modeling advances in ESMs requires comprehensive hydrologic benchmarking activities, in order to systematically evaluate competing modeling alternatives, understand model weaknesses, and prioritize model development needs. This demands stronger collaboration, both through greater engagement of hydrologists in ESM development and through more detailed evaluation of ESM processes in research watersheds. Advances in the representation of hydrologic process in ESMs can substantially improve energy, carbon and nutrient cycle prediction capabilities through the fundamental role the water cycle plays in regulating these cycles.

  8. A Large-Scale, High-Resolution Hydrological Model Parameter Data Set for Climate Change Impact Assessment for the Conterminous US

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oubeidillah, Abdoul A; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Naz, Bibi S; Tootle, Glenn

    2014-01-01

    To extend geographical coverage, refine spatial resolution, and improve modeling efficiency, a computation- and data-intensive effort was conducted to organize a comprehensive hydrologic dataset with post-calibrated model parameters for hydro-climate impact assessment. Several key inputs for hydrologic simulation including meteorologic forcings, soil, land class, vegetation, and elevation were collected from multiple best-available data sources and organized for 2107 hydrologic subbasins (8-digit hydrologic units, HUC8s) in the conterminous United States at refined 1/24 (~4 km) spatial resolution. Using high-performance computing for intensive model calibration, a high-resolution parameter dataset was prepared for the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC simulation was driven by DAYMET daily meteorological forcing and was calibrated against USGS WaterWatch monthly runoff observations for each HUC8. The results showed that this new parameter dataset may help reasonably simulate runoff at most US HUC8 subbasins. Based on this exhaustive calibration effort, it is now possible to accurately estimate the resources required for further model improvement across the entire conterminous United States. We anticipate that through this hydrologic parameter dataset, the repeated effort of fundamental data processing can be lessened, so that research efforts can emphasize the more challenging task of assessing climate change impacts. The pre-organized model parameter dataset will be provided to interested parties to support further hydro-climate impact assessment.

  9. Advancing Models and Evaluation of Cumulus, Climate and Aerosol Interactions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gettelman, Andrew

    2015-10-27

    This project was successfully able to meet its’ goals, but faced some serious challenges due to personnel issues. Nonetheless, it was largely successful. The Project Objectives were as follows: 1. Develop a unified representation of stratifom and cumulus cloud microphysics for NCAR/DOE global community models. 2. Examine the effects of aerosols on clouds and their impact on precipitation in stratiform and cumulus clouds. We will also explore the effects of clouds and precipitation on aerosols. 3. Test these new formulations using advanced evaluation techniques and observations and release

  10. Short ensembles: An Efficient Method for Discerning Climate-relevant Sensitivities in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhang, Kai; Qian, Yun; Yan, Huiping; Zhao, Chun

    2014-09-08

    This paper explores the feasibility of an experimentation strategy for investigating sensitivities in fast components of atmospheric general circulation models. The basic idea is to replace the traditional serial-in-time long-term climate integrations by representative ensembles of shorter simulations. The key advantage of the proposed method lies in its efficiency: since fewer days of simulation are needed, the computational cost is less, and because individual realizations are independent and can be integrated simultaneously, the new dimension of parallelism can dramatically reduce the turnaround time in benchmark tests, sensitivities studies, and model tuning exercises. The strategy is not appropriate for exploring sensitivity of all model features, but it is very effective in many situations. Two examples are presented using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5. The first example demonstrates that the method is capable of characterizing the model cloud and precipitation sensitivity to time step length. A nudging technique is also applied to an additional set of simulations to help understand the contribution of physics-dynamics interaction to the detected time step sensitivity. In the second example, multiple empirical parameters related to cloud microphysics and aerosol lifecycle are perturbed simultaneously in order to explore which parameters have the largest impact on the simulated global mean top-of-atmosphere radiation balance. Results show that in both examples, short ensembles are able to correctly reproduce the main signals of model sensitivities revealed by traditional long-term climate simulations for fast processes in the climate system. The efficiency of the ensemble method makes it particularly useful for the development of high-resolution, costly and complex climate models.

  11. Improvements to the SHDOM Radiative Transfer Modeling Package

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Improvements to the SHDOM Radiative Transfer Modeling Package K. F. Evans University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado W. J. Wiscombe National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, Maryland Introduction The spherical harmonic discrete ordinate method (SHDOM) is an algorithm and FORTRAN computer code for three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric radiative transfer modeling (Evans 1998). The optical properties (extinction, single scattering albedo, and phase function)

  12. A Global Climate Model Agent for High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wood, Lynn S.; Daily, Jeffrey A.; Henry, Michael J.; Palmer, Bruce J.; Schuchardt, Karen L.; Dazlich, Donald A.; Heikes, Ross P.; Randall, David

    2015-02-01

    Fine cell granularity in modern climate models can produce terabytes of data in each snapshot, causing significant I/O overhead. To address this issue, a method of reducing the I/O latency of high-resolution climate models by identifying and selectively outputting regions of interest is presented. Working with a Global Cloud Resolving Model and running with up to 10240 processors on a Cray XE6, this method provides significant I/O bandwidth reduction depending on the frequency of writes and size of the region of interest. The implementation challenges of determining global parameters in a strictly core-localized model and properly formatting output files that only contain subsections of the global grid are addressed, as well as the overall bandwidth impact and benefits of the method. The gains in I/O throughput provided by this method allow dual output rates for high-resolution climate models: a low-frequency global snapshot as well as a high-frequency regional snapshot when events of particular interest occur.

  13. Baseline for Climate Change: Modeling Watershed Aquatic Biodiversity Relative to Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maurakis, Eugene G

    2010-10-01

    Objectives of the two-year study were to (1) establish baselines for fish and macroinvertebrate community structures in two mid-Atlantic lower Piedmont watersheds (Quantico Creek, a pristine forest watershed; and Cameron Run, an urban watershed, Virginia) that can be used to monitor changes relative to the impacts related to climate change in the future; (2) create mathematical expressions to model fish species richness and diversity, and macroinvertebrate taxa and macroinvertebrate functional feeding group taxa richness and diversity that can serve as a baseline for future comparisons in these and other watersheds in the mid-Atlantic region; and (3) heighten peoples awareness, knowledge and understanding of climate change and impacts on watersheds in a laboratory experience and interactive exhibits, through internship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, a week-long teacher workshop, and a website about climate change and watersheds. Mathematical expressions modeled fish and macroinvertebrate richness and diversity accurately well during most of the six thermal seasons where sample sizes were robust. Additionally, hydrologic models provide the basis for estimating flows under varying meteorological conditions and landscape changes. Continuations of long-term studies are requisite for accurately teasing local human influences (e.g. urbanization and watershed alteration) from global anthropogenic impacts (e.g. climate change) on watersheds. Effective and skillful translations (e.g. annual potential exposure of 750,000 people to our inquiry-based laboratory activities and interactive exhibits in Virginia) of results of scientific investigations are valuable ways of communicating information to the general public to enhance their understanding of climate change and its effects in watersheds.

  14. A Hierarchical Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ringler, Todd; Collins, William D.; Taylor, Mark; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2013-08-20

    Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tools for predicting the evolution of the climate system. Through decades of development, GCMs have demonstrated useful skill in simulating climate at continental to global scales. However, large uncertainties remain in projecting climate change at regional scales, which limit our ability to inform decisions on climate change adaptation and mitigation. To bridge this gap, different modeling approaches including nested regional climate models (RCMs), global stretch-grid models, and global high-resolution atmospheric models have been used to provide regional climate simulations (Leung et al. 2003). In previous efforts to evaluate these approaches, isolating their relative merits was not possible because factors such as dynamical frameworks, physics parameterizations, and model resolutions were not systematically constrained. With advances in high performance computing, it is now feasible to run coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs at horizontal resolution comparable to what RCMs use today. Global models with local refinement using unstructured grids have become available for modeling regional climate (e.g., Rauscher et al. 2012; Ringler et al. 2013). While they offer opportunities to improve climate simulations, significant efforts are needed to test their veracity for regional-scale climate simulations.

  15. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  16. Posters Cloud Parameterizations in Global Climate Models: The Role of Aerosols

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Posters Cloud Parameterizations in Global Climate Models: The Role of Aerosols J. E. Penner and C. C. Chuang Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore, California Introduction Aerosols influence warm clouds in two ways. First, they determine initial drop size distributions, thereby influencing the albedo of clouds. Second, they determine the lifetime of clouds, thereby possibly changing global cloud cover statistics. At the present time, neither effect of aerosols on clouds is included

  17. Sensitivity of a global climate model to the critical Richardson number in the boundary layer parameterization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Ning; Liu, Yangang; Gao, Zhiqiu; Li, Dan

    2015-04-27

    The critical bulk Richardson number (Ricr) is an important parameter in planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes used in many climate models. This paper examines the sensitivity of a Global Climate Model, the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model, BCC_AGCM to Ricr. The results show that the simulated global average of PBL height increases nearly linearly with Ricr, with a change of about 114 m for a change of 0.5 in Ricr. The surface sensible (latent) heat flux decreases (increases) as Ricr increases. The influence of Ricr on surface air temperature and specific humidity is not significant. The increasing Ricr may affect the location of the Westerly Belt in the Southern Hemisphere. Further diagnosis reveals that changes in Ricr affect stratiform and convective precipitations differently. Increasing Ricr leads to an increase in the stratiform precipitation but a decrease in the convective precipitation. Significant changes of convective precipitation occur over the inter-tropical convergence zone, while changes of stratiform precipitation mostly appear over arid land such as North Africa and Middle East.

  18. On the characteristics of aerosol indirect effect based on dynamic regimes in global climate models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, S.; Wang, M.; Ghan, S. J.; Ding, A.; Wang, H.; Zhang, K.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.; Ferrachat, S.; Takeamura, T.; et al

    2015-09-02

    Aerosol-cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity (?500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strong large-scale ascendmore(?500 ?1) and low clouds (stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus) where the models differ most. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing is also found to differ significantly among different regimes. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing in ascending regimes is as large as that in stratocumulus regimes, which indicates that regimes with strong large-scale ascend are as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. It is further shown that shortwave aerosol indirect forcing over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate (> 0.1 mm d?1) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64 to nearly 100 %). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes than that globally, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.less

  19. Sensitivity of a global climate model to the critical Richardson number in the boundary layer parameterization

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Ning; Liu, Yangang; Gao, Zhiqiu; Li, Dan

    2015-04-27

    The critical bulk Richardson number (Ricr) is an important parameter in planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes used in many climate models. This paper examines the sensitivity of a Global Climate Model, the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model, BCC_AGCM to Ricr. The results show that the simulated global average of PBL height increases nearly linearly with Ricr, with a change of about 114 m for a change of 0.5 in Ricr. The surface sensible (latent) heat flux decreases (increases) as Ricr increases. The influence of Ricr on surface air temperature and specific humidity is not significant. The increasingmore » Ricr may affect the location of the Westerly Belt in the Southern Hemisphere. Further diagnosis reveals that changes in Ricr affect stratiform and convective precipitations differently. Increasing Ricr leads to an increase in the stratiform precipitation but a decrease in the convective precipitation. Significant changes of convective precipitation occur over the inter-tropical convergence zone, while changes of stratiform precipitation mostly appear over arid land such as North Africa and Middle East.« less

  20. Evaluating Clouds, Aerosols, and their Interactions in Three Global Climate Models using COSP and Satellite Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ban-Weiss, George; Jin, Ling; Bauer, S.; Bennartz, Ralph; Liu, Xiaohong; Zhang, Kai; Ming, Yi; Guo, Huan; Jiang, Jonathan

    2014-09-23

    Accurately representing aerosol-cloud interactions in global climate models is challenging. As parameterizations evolve, it is important to evaluate their performance with appropriate use of observations. In this work we compare aerosols, clouds, and their interactions in three climate models (AM3, CAM5, ModelE) to MODIS satellite observations. Modeled cloud properties were diagnosed using the CFMIP Observations Simulator Package (COSP). Cloud droplet number concentrations (N) were derived using the same algorithm for both satellite-simulated model values and observations. We find that aerosol optical depth tau simulated by models is similar to observations. For N, AM3 and CAM5 capture the observed spatial pattern of higher values in near-coast versus remote ocean regions, though modeled values in general are higher than observed. In contrast, ModelE simulates lower N in most near-coast versus remote regions. Aerosol- cloud interactions were computed as the sensitivity of N to tau for marine liquid clouds off the coasts of South Africa and Eastern Asia where aerosol pollution varies in time. AM3 and CAM5 are in most cases more sensitive than observations, while the sensitivity for ModelE is statistically insignificant. This widely used sensitivity could be subject to misinterpretation due to the confounding influence of meteorology on both aerosols and clouds. A simple framework for assessing the N – tau sensitivity at constant meteorology illustrates that observed sensitivity can change from positive to statistically insignificant when including the confounding influence of relative humidity. Satellite simulated values of N were compared to standard model output and found to be higher with a bias of 83 cm-3.

  1. An improvement to the global standard for modeling fusion plasmas |

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Princeton Plasma Physics Lab An improvement to the global standard for modeling fusion plasmas By Raphael Rosen April 27, 2015 Tweet Widget Google Plus One Share on Facebook Schematic of NSTX tokamak at PPPL with a cross-section showing perturbations of the plasma profiles caused by instabilities. Without instabilities, energetic particles would follow closed trajectories and stay confined inside the plasma (blue orbit). With instabilities, trajectories can be modified and some particles may

  2. Transforming the representation of the boundary layer and low clouds for high-resolution regional climate modeling: Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huang, Hsin-Yuan; Hall, Alex

    2013-07-24

    Stratocumulus and shallow cumulus clouds in subtropical oceanic regions (e.g., Southeast Pacific) cover thousands of square kilometers and play a key role in regulating global climate (e.g., Klein and Hartmann, 1993). Numerical modeling is an essential tool to study these clouds in regional and global systems, but the current generation of climate and weather models has difficulties in representing them in a realistic way (e.g., Siebesma et al., 2004; Stevens et al., 2007; Teixeira et al., 2011). While numerical models resolve the large-scale flow, subgrid-scale parameterizations are needed to estimate small-scale properties (e.g. boundary layer turbulence and convection, clouds, radiation), which have significant influence on the resolved scale due to the complex nonlinear nature of the atmosphere. To represent the contribution of these fine-scale processes to the resolved scale, climate models use various parameterizations, which are the main pieces in the model that contribute to the low clouds dynamics and therefore are the major sources of errors or approximations in their representation. In this project, we aim to 1) improve our understanding of the physical processes in thermal circulation and cloud formation, 2) examine the performance and sensitivity of various parameterizations in the regional weather model (Weather Research and Forecasting model; WRF), and 3) develop, implement, and evaluate the advanced boundary layer parameterization in the regional model to better represent stratocumulus, shallow cumulus, and their transition. Thus, this project includes three major corresponding studies. We find that the mean diurnal cycle is sensitive to model domain in ways that reveal the existence of different contributions originating from the Southeast Pacific land-masses. The experiments suggest that diurnal variations in circulations and thermal structures over this region are influenced by convection over the Peruvian sector of the Andes cordillera, while

  3. Modelling of mineral dust for interglacial and glacial climate conditions with a focus on Antarctica

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sudarchikova, Natalia; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Timmreck, C.; O'Donnell, D.; Schurgers, G.; Sein, Dmitry; Zhang, Kai

    2015-01-01

    Mineral dust cycle responds to insolation-induced climate change and plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Polar ice cores provide unique information about deposition of aeolian dust particles in the past which indicates climate variability. In the current study the dust cycle in different climate conditions simulated by ECHAM5-HAM is analyzed. The study is focused on the Southern Hemisphere with emphasis on the Antarctic region. The investigated periods include four interglacial time-slices: the pre-industrial control (CTRL), mid-Holocene (6,000 years BP), Eemian (126,000 years BP), last glacial inception (115,000 years BP) and one glacial time interval: Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21,000 years BP). This study is a first attempt to simulate past interglacial dust cycles and to understand the quantitative contribution of different processes, such as emission, atmospheric transport and precipitation to the total dust deposition in Antarctica. Results suggest increased deposition of mineral dust globally and in Antarctica in the past interglacial periods relative to the preindustrial CTRL simulation. Maximum dust deposition in Antarctica was simulated for the glacial period. One of the major factors responsible for the increase of dust deposition in the mid-Holocene and Eemian is enhanced Southern Hemisphere dust emissions. The moderate change of dust deposition in Antarctica in the last glacial inception period is caused by the slightly stronger poleward atmospheric transport efficiency compared to the pre-industrial. In the LGM simulation, dust deposition over Antarctica is substantially increased due to 2.6 times higher Southern Hemisphere dust emissions, 2 times stronger atmospheric transport towards Antarctica, and 30% weaker precipitation over the Southern Ocean. The model is able to reproduce the order of magnitude of dust deposition globally and in Antarctica for the pre-industrial and LGM climate

  4. Regional climate effects of irrigation and urbanization in thewestern united states: a model intercomparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Snyder, M.A.; Kueppers, L.M.; Sloan, L.C.; Cavan, D.C.; Jin, J.; Kanamaru, H.; Miller, N.L.; Tyree, M.; Du, H.; Weare, B.

    2006-05-01

    In the western United States, more than 30,500 square miles has been converted to irrigated agriculture and urban areas. This study compares the climate responses of four regional climate models (RCMs) to these past land-use changes. The RCMs used two contrasting land cover distributions: potential natural vegetation, and modern land cover that includes agriculture and urban areas. Three of the RCMs represented irrigation by supplementing soil moisture, producing large decreases in August mean (-2.5 F to -5.6 F) and maximum (-5.2 F to -10.1 F) 2-meter temperatures where natural vegetation was converted to irrigated agriculture. Conversion to irrigated agriculture also resulted in large increases in relative humidity (9 percent 36 percent absolute change). Only one of the RCMs produced increases in summer minimum temperature. Converting natural vegetation to urban land cover produced modest but discernable climate effects in all models, with the magnitude of the effects dependent upon the preexisting vegetation type. Overall, the RCM results indicate that land use change impacts are most pronounced during the summer months, when surface heating is strongest and differences in surface moisture between irrigated land and natural vegetation are largest. The irrigation effect on summer maximum temperatures is comparable in magnitude (but opposite in sign) to predicted future temperature change due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.

  5. Modeling U.S. Energy Use Changes with Global Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadley, Stanton W; Erickson III, David J; Hernandez Figueroa, Jose L

    2006-09-01

    Using a general circulation model of Earth climate (PCM-IBIS) to drive an energy use model (DD-NEMS), we calculated the energy use changes for each year from 2003-2025 for the nine U.S. Census regions. We used five scenarios: 1) a reference with no change in temperatures from the 1970-2003 average, 2) a gradual 1 F rise in temperature by 2025, 3) a gradual 3 F rise by 2025, 4) a climate simulation with low temperature response to CO2 doubling in the atmosphere, and 5) a climate simulation with a more extreme response. The low-?T scenario had a cumulative reduction in energy of 2.1 Quads but an increase in cost of $14.8 billion. The northern states had reductions in cost over the entire period, but most other regions had increases in costs because increases in cooling costs outweighed reductions in heating and other energy uses. Higher temperature sensitivity resulted in increased warming, especially in the winter months. Because heating needs decreased, total energy requirements declined by a cumulative 4.2 Quads. However, total cost still increased $6.1 billion and carbon emissions still rose as coal-based electricity for cooling needs grew.

  6. A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fedorov, Alexey V.; Fedorov, Alexey

    2015-01-14

    The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth system models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.

  7. Evaluating the Diurnal Cycle of Upper Tropospheric Humidity in Two Different Climate Models Using Satellite Observations

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Kottayil, Ajil; John, Viju; Buehler, Stefan; Mohanakumar, Kesavapillai

    2016-04-13

    The diurnal cycle of upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) is known to be influenced by such processes as convection and the formation of clouds which are parameterized in current global climate models. In this study, we evaluate the performance of two climate models, the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM-5) and the Global Atmosphere 3.0 (GA-3) model in simulating the diurnal cycle of UTH (represented by a combination of sinusoids of 12 and 24 h periods) by comparing with microwave and infrared (IR) measurements (where available). These comparisons were made over two convective land regions in South America and Africa, andmore » over oceanic regions in the Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific for the month of January 2007. We analyzed how the diurnal cycles from IR and microwave instruments differ, and the reason for the differences. Our study suggests that the differences in the diurnal cycles of IR and microwave UTH result from sampling differences due to the presence of clouds. Lastly, as noted by earlier studies, the models exhibit considerable discrepancies in diurnal amplitude and phase relative to observations, and these discrepancies have different magnitudes over land and ocean.« less

  8. Final scientific report for DOE award title: Improving the Representat...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    scientific report for DOE award title: Improving the Representation of Ice Sedimentation Rates in Global Climate Models Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Final scientific ...

  9. Modelling of mineral dust for interglacial and glacial climate conditions with a focus on Antarctica

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Sudarchikova, Natalia; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Timmreck, C.; O'Donnell, D.; Schurgers, G.; Sein, Dmitry; Zhang, Kai

    2015-05-19

    The mineral dust cycle responds to climate variations and plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative balance of the atmosphere and modifying biogeochemistry. Polar ice cores provide unique information about deposition of aeolian dust particles transported over long distances. These cores are a palaeoclimate proxy archive of climate variability thousands of years ago. The current study is a first attempt to simulate past interglacial dust cycles with a global aerosol–climate model ECHAM5-HAM. The results are used to explain the dust deposition changes in Antarctica in terms of quantitative contribution of different processes, such as emission,more » atmospheric transport and precipitation, which will help to interpret palaeodata from Antarctic ice cores. The investigated periods include four interglacial time slices: the pre-industrial control (CTRL), mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP; hereafter referred to as \\"6 kyr\\"), last glacial inception (115 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"115 kyr\\") and Eemian (126 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"126 kyr\\"). One glacial time interval, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"21 kyr\\"), was simulated as well to be a reference test for the model. Results suggest an increase in mineral dust deposition globally, and in Antarctica, in the past interglacial periods relative to the pre-industrial CTRL simulation. Approximately two-thirds of the increase in the mid-Holocene and Eemian is attributed to enhanced Southern Hemisphere dust emissions. Slightly strengthened transport efficiency causes the remaining one-third of the increase in dust deposition. The moderate change in dust deposition in Antarctica in the last glacial inception period is caused by the slightly stronger poleward atmospheric transport efficiency compared to the pre-industrial. Maximum dust deposition in Antarctica was simulated for the glacial period. LGM dust deposition in Antarctica is substantially increased due to 2.6 times

  10. Modelling of mineral dust for interglacial and glacial climate conditions with a focus on Antarctica

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sudarchikova, Natalia; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Timmreck, C.; O'Donnell, D.; Schurgers, G.; Sein, Dmitry; Zhang, Kai

    2015-05-19

    The mineral dust cycle responds to climate variations and plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative balance of the atmosphere and modifying biogeochemistry. Polar ice cores provide unique information about deposition of aeolian dust particles transported over long distances. These cores are a palaeoclimate proxy archive of climate variability thousands of years ago. The current study is a first attempt to simulate past interglacial dust cycles with a global aerosol–climate model ECHAM5-HAM. The results are used to explain the dust deposition changes in Antarctica in terms of quantitative contribution of different processes, such as emission, atmospheric transport and precipitation, which will help to interpret palaeodata from Antarctic ice cores. The investigated periods include four interglacial time slices: the pre-industrial control (CTRL), mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP; hereafter referred to as \\"6 kyr\\"), last glacial inception (115 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"115 kyr\\") and Eemian (126 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"126 kyr\\"). One glacial time interval, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"21 kyr\\"), was simulated as well to be a reference test for the model. Results suggest an increase in mineral dust deposition globally, and in Antarctica, in the past interglacial periods relative to the pre-industrial CTRL simulation. Approximately two-thirds of the increase in the mid-Holocene and Eemian is attributed to enhanced Southern Hemisphere dust emissions. Slightly strengthened transport efficiency causes the remaining one-third of the increase in dust deposition. The moderate change in dust deposition in Antarctica in the last glacial inception period is caused by the slightly stronger poleward atmospheric transport efficiency compared to the pre-industrial. Maximum dust deposition in Antarctica was simulated for the glacial period. LGM dust deposition in Antarctica is substantially increased due to 2.6 times higher

  11. Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    overview Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Science, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility was established in 1990 to improve global climate models by increasing understanding of clouds and radiative feedbacks. Through the ARM Facility, DOE funded the development of highly instrumented research sites at strategic locations around the world: the Southern Great Plains (SGP), Tropical Western Pacific (TWP), and North Slope of Alaska (NSA).

  12. Toward a new parameterization of hydraulic conductivity in climate models: Simulation of rapid groundwater fluctuations in Northern California: HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY IN CLIMATE MODELS

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Vrettas, Michail D.; Fung, Inez Y.

    2015-12-01

    Preferential flow through weathered bedrock leads to rapid rise of the water table after the first rainstorms and significant water storage (also known as ‘‘rock moisture’’) in the fractures. We present a new parameterization of hydraulic conductivity that captures the preferential flow and is easy to implement in global climate models. To mimic the naturally varying heterogeneity with depth in the subsurface, the model represents the hydraulic conductivity as a product of the effective saturation and a background hydraulic conductivity Kbkg, drawn from a lognormal distribution. The mean of the background Kbkg decreases monotonically with depth, while its variance reducesmore » with the effective saturation. Model parameters are derived by assimilating into Richards’ equation 6 years of 30 min observations of precipitation (mm) and water table depths (m), from seven wells along a steep hillslope in the Eel River watershed in Northern California. The results show that the observed rapid penetration of precipitation and the fast rise of the water table from the well locations, after the first winter rains, are well captured with the new stochastic approach in contrast to the standard van Genuchten model of hydraulic conductivity, which requires significantly higher levels of saturated soils to produce the same results. ‘‘Rock moisture,’’ the moisture between the soil mantle and the water table, comprises 30% of the moisture because of the great depth of the weathered bedrock layer and could be a potential source of moisture to sustain trees through extended dry periods. Furthermore, storage of moisture in the soil mantle is smaller, implying less surface runoff and less evaporation, with the proposed new model.« less

  13. Aerosol, Cloud, and Climate: From Observation to Model (457th Brookhaven Lecture)

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Wang, Jian [Ph.D., Environmental Sciences Department

    2010-09-01

    In the last 100 years, the Earth has warmed by about 1ºF, glaciers and sea ice have been melting more quickly than previously, especially during the past decade, and the level of the sea has risen about 6-8 inches worldwide. Scientists have long been investigating this phenomenon of ?global warming,? which is believed to be at least partly due to the increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the air from burning fossil fuels. Funded by DOE, teams of researchers from BNL and other national labs have been gathering data in the U.S. and internationally to build computer models of climate and weather to help in understanding general patterns, causes, and perhaps, solutions. Among many findings, researchers observed that atmospheric aerosols, minute particles in the atmosphere, can significantly affect global energy balance and climate. Directly, aerosols scatter and absorb sunlight. Indirectly, increased aerosol concentration can lead to smaller cloud droplets, changing clouds in ways that tend to cool global climate and potentially mask overall warming from man-made CO2.

  14. Aerosol, Cloud, and Climate: From Observation to Model (457th Brookhaven Lecture)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Jian

    2010-05-12

    In the last 100 years, the Earth has warmed by about 1F, glaciers and sea ice have been melting more quickly than previously, especially during the past decade, and the level of the sea has risen about 6-8 inches worldwide. Scientists have long been investigating this phenomenon of global warming, which is believed to be at least partly due to the increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the air from burning fossil fuels. Funded by DOE, teams of researchers from BNL and other national labs have been gathering data in the U.S. and internationally to build computer models of climate and weather to help in understanding general patterns, causes, and perhaps, solutions. Among many findings, researchers observed that atmospheric aerosols, minute particles in the atmosphere, can significantly affect global energy balance and climate. Directly, aerosols scatter and absorb sunlight. Indirectly, increased aerosol concentration can lead to smaller cloud droplets, changing clouds in ways that tend to cool global climate and potentially mask overall warming from man-made CO2.

  15. On the characteristics of aerosol indirect effect based on dynamic regimes in global climate models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Shipeng; Wang, Minghuai; Ghan, Steven J.; Ding, Aijun; Wang, Hailong; Zhang, Kai; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, Ulrike; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; Takeamura, Toshihiko; et al

    2016-03-04

    Aerosol–cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity (ω500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strong large-scale ascentmore » (ω500  <  −25 hPa day−1) and low clouds (stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus) where the models differ most. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing is also found to differ significantly among different regimes. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing in ascending regimes is close to that in subsidence regimes, which indicates that regimes with strong large-scale ascent are as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. It is further shown that shortwave aerosol indirect forcing over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate (> 0.1 mm day−1) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64 to nearly 100 %). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes compared to the uncertainty in its global mean values, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.« less

  16. Flooding Experiments and Modeling for Improved Reactor Safety

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Solmos, M., Hogan, K.J., VIerow, K.

    2008-09-14

    Countercurrent two-phase flow and “flooding” phenomena in light water reactor systems are being investigated experimentally and analytically to improve reactor safety of current and future reactors. The aspects that will be better clarified are the effects of condensation and tube inclination on flooding in large diameter tubes. The current project aims to improve the level of understanding of flooding mechanisms and to develop an analysis model for more accurate evaluations of flooding in the pressurizer surge line of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Interest in flooding has recently increased because Countercurrent Flow Limitation (CCFL) in the AP600 pressurizer surge line can affect the vessel refill rate following a small break LOCA and because analysis of hypothetical severe accidents with the current flooding models in reactor safety codes shows that these models represent the largest uncertainty in analysis of steam generator tube creep rupture. During a hypothetical station blackout without auxiliary feedwater recovery, should the hot leg become voided, the pressurizer liquid will drain to the hot leg and flooding may occur in the surge line. The flooding model heavily influences the pressurizer emptying rate and the potential for surge line structural failure due to overheating and creep rupture. The air-water test results in vertical tubes are presented in this paper along with a semi-empirical correlation for the onset of flooding. The unique aspects of the study include careful experimentation on large-diameter tubes and an integrated program in which air-water testing provides benchmark knowledge and visualization data from which to conduct steam-water testing.

  17. The role of aerosols in cloud drop parameterizations and its applications in global climate models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E.

    1996-04-01

    The characteristics of the cloud drop size distribution near cloud base are initially determined by aerosols that serve as cloud condensation nuclei and the updraft velocity. We have developed parameterizations relating cloud drop number concentration to aerosol number and sulfate mass concentrations and used them in a coupled global aerosol/general circulation model (GCM) to estimate the indirect aerosol forcing. The global aerosol model made use of our detailed emissions inventories for the amount of particulate matter from biomass burning sources and from fossil fuel sources as well as emissions inventories of the gas-phase anthropogenic SO{sub 2}. This work is aimed at validating the coupled model with the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program measurements and assessing the possible magnitude of the aerosol-induced cloud effects on climate.

  18. Formation of algae growth constitutive relations for improved algae modeling.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gharagozloo, Patricia E.; Drewry, Jessica L.

    2013-01-01

    This SAND report summarizes research conducted as a part of a two year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project to improve our abilities to model algal cultivation. Algae-based biofuels have generated much excitement due to their potentially large oil yield from relatively small land use and without interfering with the food or water supply. Algae mitigate atmospheric CO2 through metabolism. Efficient production of algal biofuels could reduce dependence on foreign oil by providing a domestic renewable energy source. Important factors controlling algal productivity include temperature, nutrient concentrations, salinity, pH, and the light-to-biomass conversion rate. Computational models allow for inexpensive predictions of algae growth kinetics in these non-ideal conditions for various bioreactor sizes and geometries without the need for multiple expensive measurement setups. However, these models need to be calibrated for each algal strain. In this work, we conduct a parametric study of key marine algae strains and apply the findings to a computational model.

  19. DOE Workshop; Pan-Gass Conference on the Representation of Atmospheric Processes in Weather and Climate Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Morrison, PI Hugh

    2012-09-21

    This is the first meeting of the whole new GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) Atmospheric System Study (GASS) project that has been formed from the merger of the GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) Project and the GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Studies (GABLS). As such, this meeting will play a major role in energizing GEWEX work in the area of atmospheric parameterizations of clouds, convection, stable boundary layers, and aerosol-cloud interactions for the numerical models used for weather and climate projections at both global and regional scales. The representation of these processes in models is crucial to GEWEX goals of improved prediction of the energy and water cycles at both weather and climate timescales. This proposal seeks funds to be used to cover incidental and travel expenses for U.S.-based graduate students and early career scientists (i.e., within 5 years of receiving their highest degree). We anticipate using DOE funding to support 5-10 people. We will advertise the availability of these funds by providing a box to check for interested participants on the online workshop registration form. We will also send a note to our participants' mailing lists reminding them that the funds are available and asking senior scientists to encourage their more junior colleagues to participate. All meeting participants are encouraged to submit abstracts for oral or poster presentations. The science organizing committee (see below) will base funding decisions on the relevance and quality of these abstracts, with preference given to under-represented populations (especially women and minorities) and to early career scientists being actively mentored at the meeting (e.g. students or postdocs attending the meeting with their advisor).

  20. Improving Comfort in Hot-Humid Climates with a Whole-House Dehumidifier, Windermere, Florida (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2013-11-01

    Maintaining comfort in a home can be challenging in hot-humid climates. At the common summer temperature set point of 75 degrees F, the perceived air temperature can vary by 11 degrees F because higher indoor humidity reduces comfort. Often the air conditioner (AC) thermostat set point is lower than the desirable cooling level to try to increase moisture removal so that the interior air is not humid or "muggy." However, this method is not always effective in maintaining indoor relative humidity (RH) or comfort. In order to quantify the performance of a combined whole-house dehumidifier (WHD) AC system, researchers from the U.S. Department of Energy's Building America team Consortium of Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB) monitored the operation of two Lennox AC systems coupled with a Honeywell DH150 TrueDRY whole-house dehumidifier for a six-month period. By using a WHD to control moisture levels (latent cooling) and optimizing a central AC to control temperature (sensible cooling), improvements in comfort can be achieved while reducing utility costs. Indoor comfort for this study was defined as maintaining indoor conditions at below 60% RH and a humidity ratio of 0.012 lbm/lbm while at common dry bulb set point temperatures of 74 degrees -80 degrees F. In addition to enhanced comfort, controlling moisture to these levels can reduce the risk of other potential issues such as mold growth, pests, and building component degradation. Because a standard AC must also reduce dry bulb air temperature in order to remove moisture, a WHD is typically needed to support these latent loads when sensible heat removal is not desired.

  1. Implementation and evaluation of online gas-phase chemistry within a regional climate model (RegCM-CHEM4)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shalaby, A. K.; Zakey, A. S.; Tawfik, A. B.; Solmon, F.; Giorgi, Filippo; Stordal, F.; Sillman, S.; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Steiner, A. L.

    2012-05-22

    The RegCM-CHEM4 is a new online climate-chemistry model based on the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) regional climate model (RegCM4). Tropospheric gas-phase chemistry is integrated into the climate model using the condensed version of the Carbon Bond Mechanism (CBM-Z; Zaveri and Peters, 1999) with a fast solver based on radical balances. We evaluate the model over Continental Europe for two different time scales: (1) an event-based analysis of the ozone episode associated with the heat wave of August 2003 and (2) a climatological analysis of a sixyear simulation (2000-2005). For the episode analysis, model simulations show good agreement with European Monitoring and Evaluation Program (EMEP) observations of hourly ozone over different regions in Europe and capture ozone concentrations during and after the August 2003 heat wave event. For long-term climate simulations, the model captures the seasonal cycle of ozone concentrations with some over prediction of ozone concentrations in non-heat wave summers. Overall, the ozone and ozone precursor evaluation shows the feasibility of using RegCM-CHEM4 for decadal-length simulations of chemistry-climate interactions.

  2. Modeling Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change: A Case Study of India and Indian States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brenkert, Antoinette L.; Malone, Elizabeth L.

    2005-09-01

    The vulnerability of India and Indian states to climate change was assessed using the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator Prototype (VRIP). The model was adapted from the global/country version to account for Indian dietary practices and data availability with regard to freshwater resources. Results (scaled to world values) show nine Indian states to be moderately resilient to climate change, principally because of low sulfur emissions and a relatively large percentage of unmanaged land. Six states are more vulnerable than India as a whole, attributable largely to sensitivity to sea storm surges. Analyses of results at the state level (Orissa, and comparisons between Maharashtra and Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh) demonstrate the value of VRIP analyses used in conjunction with other socioeconomic information to address initial questions about the sources of vulnerability in particular places. The modeling framework allows analysts and stakeholders to systematically evaluate individual and sets of indicators and to indicate where the likely vulnerabilities are in the area being assessed.

  3. Assessing the Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Pacific Storm Track Using a Multiscale Global Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan; Molina, Mario J.

    2014-05-13

    Atmospheric aerosols impact weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track using a multi-scale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and pre-industrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by - 2.5 and + 1.3 W m-2, respectively, by emission changes from pre-industrial to present day, and an increased cloud-top height indicates invigorated mid-latitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides for the first time a global perspective of the impacts of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multi-scale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on the global scale.

  4. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, Jerry; Ruane, Alex; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, Peter; Rotter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, AJ; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, Robert; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Mueller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.O.; Olesen, JE; Osborne, T.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.

    2013-09-01

    Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments1,2. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change has been increasingly described in the literature3,4 while assessments of the uncertainty in crop responses to climate change are very rare. Systematic and objective comparisons across impact studies is difficult, and thus has not been fully realized5. Here we present the largest coordinated and standardized crop model intercomparison for climate change impacts on wheat production to date. We found that several individual crop models are able to reproduce measured grain yields under current diverse environments, particularly if sufficient details are provided to execute them. However, simulated climate change impacts can vary across models due to differences in model structures and algorithms. The crop-model component of uncertainty in climate change impact assessments was considerably larger than the climate-model component from Global Climate Models (GCMs). Model responses to high temperatures and temperature-by-CO2 interactions are identified as major sources of simulated impact uncertainties. Significant reductions in impact uncertainties through model improvements in these areas and improved quantification of uncertainty through multi-model ensembles are urgently needed for a more reliable translation of climate change scenarios into agricultural impacts in order to develop adaptation strategies and aid policymaking.

  5. Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brian C. O'Neill

    2006-08-09

    This report describes results of the research project on "Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics". The overall objective of this project was to improve projections of energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions by taking into account demographic factors currently not incorporated in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of global climate change. We proposed to examine the potential magnitude of effects on energy demand of changes in the composition of populations by household characteristics for three countries: the U.S., China, and Indonesia. For each country, we planned to analyze household energy use survey data to estimate relationships between household characteristics and energy use; develop a new set of detailed household projections for each country; and combine these analyses to produce new projections of energy demand illustrating the potential importance of consideration of households.

  6. Little Ice Age glaciers in Britain: Glacier–climate modelling in the Cairngorm Mountains

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stephan Harrison; Ann V. Rowan; Neil F. Glasser; Jasper Knight; Mitchell A. Plummer; Stephanie C. Mills

    2014-02-01

    It is widely believed that the last glaciers in the British Isles disappeared at the end of the Younger Dryas stadial (12.9–11.7 cal. kyr BP). Here, we use a glacier–climate model driven by data from local weather stations to show for the first time that glaciers developed during the Little Ice Age (LIA) in the Cairngorm Mountains. Our model is forced from contemporary conditions by a realistic difference in mean annual air temperature of -1.5 degrees C and an increase in annual precipitation of 10%, and confirmed by sensitivity analyses. These results are supported by the presence of small boulder moraines well within Younger Dryas ice limits, and by a dating programme on a moraine in one cirque. As a result, we argue that the last glaciers in the Cairngorm Mountains (and perhaps elsewhere in upland Britain) existed in the LIA within the last few hundred years, rather than during the Younger Dryas.

  7. A new test statistic for climate models that includes field and spatial dependencies using Gaussian Markov random fields

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nosedal-Sanchez, Alvaro; Jackson, Charles S.; Huerta, Gabriel

    2016-07-20

    A new test statistic for climate model evaluation has been developed that potentially mitigates some of the limitations that exist for observing and representing field and space dependencies of climate phenomena. Traditionally such dependencies have been ignored when climate models have been evaluated against observational data, which makes it difficult to assess whether any given model is simulating observed climate for the right reasons. The new statistic uses Gaussian Markov random fields for estimating field and space dependencies within a first-order grid point neighborhood structure. We illustrate the ability of Gaussian Markov random fields to represent empirical estimates of fieldmore » and space covariances using "witch hat" graphs. We further use the new statistic to evaluate the tropical response of a climate model (CAM3.1) to changes in two parameters important to its representation of cloud and precipitation physics. Overall, the inclusion of dependency information did not alter significantly the recognition of those regions of parameter space that best approximated observations. However, there were some qualitative differences in the shape of the response surface that suggest how such a measure could affect estimates of model uncertainty.« less

  8. COUNTERCURRENT FLOW LIMITATION EXPERIMENTS AND MODELING FOR IMPROVED REACTOR SAFETY

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vierow, Karen

    2008-09-26

    This project is investigating countercurrent flow and “flooding” phenomena in light water reactor systems to improve reactor safety of current and future reactors. To better understand the occurrence of flooding in the surge line geometry of a PWR, two experimental programs were performed. In the first, a test facility with an acrylic test section provided visual data on flooding for air-water systems in large diameter tubes. This test section also allowed for development of techniques to form an annular liquid film along the inner surface of the “surge line” and other techniques which would be difficult to verify in an opaque test section. Based on experiences in the air-water testing and the improved understanding of flooding phenomena, two series of tests were conducted in a large-diameter, stainless steel test section. Air-water test results and steam-water test results were directly compared to note the effect of condensation. Results indicate that, as for smaller diameter tubes, the flooding phenomena is predominantly driven by the hydrodynamics. Tests with the test sections inclined were attempted but the annular film was easily disrupted. A theoretical model for steam venting from inclined tubes is proposed herein and validated against air-water data. Empirical correlations were proposed for air-water and steam-water data. Methods for developing analytical models of the air-water and steam-water systems are discussed, as is the applicability of the current data to the surge line conditions. This report documents the project results from July 1, 2005 through June 30, 2008.

  9. Improving Convection Parameterization Using ARM Observations and NCAR Community Atmosphere Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Guang J

    2013-07-29

    Highlight of Accomplishments: We made significant contribution to the ASR program in this funding cycle by better representing convective processes in GCMs based on knowledge gained from analysis of ARM/ASR observations. In addition, our work led to a much improved understanding of the interaction among aerosol, convection, clouds and climate in GCMs.

  10. Final Report for DOE Grant DE-FG02-07ER64470 [“Incorporation of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) into the Community Climate System Model (CCSM): Evaluation and Climate Applications”

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chassignet, Eric P

    2013-03-18

    The primary goal of the project entitled “Incorporation of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) into the Community Climate System Model (CCSM): Evaluation and Climate Applications” was to systematically investigate the performance of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) as an alternative oceanic component of the NCAR’s Community Climate System Model (CCSM). We have configured two versions of the fully coupled CCSM3/HYCOM: one with a medium resolution (T42) Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) and the other with higher resolution (T85). We have performed a comprehensive analysis of the 400-year fully coupled CCSM3/HYCOM simulations and compared the results with those from CCSM3/POP and with climatological observations, and also we have performed tuning of critical model parameters, including Smagorinsky viscosity, isopycnal diffusivity, and background vertical diffusivity. The analysis shows that most oceanic features are well represented in the CCSM3/HYCOM. The coupled CCSM3/HYCOM (T42) has been integrated for 400 years, and the results have been archived and transferred to the High Performance Computer in the Florida State Univesity. In the last year, we have made comprehensive diagnostics of the long-term simulations by the comparison with the original CCSM3/POP simulation and with the observations. To gain some understanding of the model biases, the mean climate and modes of climate variability of the two models are compared with observations. The examination includes the Northern and Southern Annular Modes (NAM and SAM), the Pacific-North-American (PNA) pattern, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the main Southern Ocean SST mode. We also compared the performance of ENSO simulation in the coupled models. This report summarizes the main findings from the comparison of long-term CCSM3/HYCOM and CCSM3/POP simulations.

  11. Models & Tools

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable ... Arctic Climate Measurements Global Climate Models Software Sustainable Subsurface ...

  12. Phenomenological Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable ... Arctic Climate Measurements Global Climate Models Software Sustainable Subsurface ...

  13. Light-absorbing Particles in Snow and Ice: Measurement and Modeling of Climatic and Hydrological Impact

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qian, Yun; Yasunari, Teppei J.; Doherty, Sarah J.; Flanner, M. G.; Lau, William K.; Ming, J.; Wang, Hailong; Wang, Mo; Warren, Stephen G.; Zhang, Rudong

    2015-01-01

    Light absorbing particles (LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust) influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance (a.k.a., surface darkening), which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice (LAPSI) has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g. in the fourth and fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, andclimatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.

  14. Improving the Ni I atomic model for solar and stellar atmospheric models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vieytes, M. C.; Fontenla, J. M. E-mail: johnf@digidyna.com

    2013-06-01

    Neutral nickel (Ni I) is abundant in the solar atmosphere and is one of the important elements that contribute to the emission and absorption of radiation in the spectral range between 1900 and 3900 Å. Previously, the Solar Radiation Physical Modeling (SRPM) models of the solar atmosphere only considered a few levels of this species. Here, we improve the Ni I atomic model by taking into account 61 levels and 490 spectral lines. We compute the populations of these levels in full NLTE using the SRPM code and compare the resulting emerging spectrum with observations. The present atomic model significantly improves the calculation of the solar spectral irradiance at near-UV wavelengths, which is important for Earth atmospheric studies, and particularly for ozone chemistry.

  15. Improvements in Modeling Au Sphere Non-LTE X-ray Emission (Conference...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Improvements in Modeling Au Sphere Non-LTE X-ray Emission Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Improvements in Modeling Au Sphere Non-LTE X-ray Emission We've previously ...

  16. Do Coupled Climate Models Correctly SImulate the Upward Branch of the Deept Ocean Global Conveyor?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sarmiento, Jorge L; Downes, Stephanie; Bianchi, Daniele

    2013-01-17

    The large-scale meridional overturning circulation (MOC) connects the deep ocean, a major reservoir of carbon, to the other components of the climate system and must therefore be accurately represented in Earth System Models. Our project aims to address the specific question of the pathways and mechanisms controlling the upwelling branch of the MOC, a subject of significant disagreement between models and observational syntheses, and among general circulation models. Observations of these pathways are limited, particularly in regions of complex hydrography such as the Southern Ocean. As such, we rely on models to examine theories of the overturning circulation, both physically and biogeochemically. This grant focused on a particular aspect of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) where there is currently significant disagreement between models and observationally based analyses of the MOC, and amongst general circulation models. In particular, the research focused on addressing the following questions: 1. Where does the deep water that sinks in the polar regions rise to the surface? 2. What processes are responsible for this rise? 3. Do state-of-the-art coupled GCMs capture these processes? Our research had three key components: observational synthesis, model development and model analysis. In this final report we outline the key results from these areas of research for the 2007 to 2012 grant period. The research described here was carried out primarily by graduate student, Daniele Bianchi (now a Postdoc at McGill University, Canada), and Postdoc Stephanie Downes (now a Research Fellow at The Australian national University, Australia). Additional support was provided for programmers Jennifer Simeon as well as Rick Slater.

  17. A zonally averaged, three-basin ocean circulation model for climate studies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hovine, S.; Fichefet, T.

    1994-09-01

    A two-dimensional, three-basin ocean model suitable for long-term climate studies is developed. The model is based on the zonally averaged form of the primitive equations written in spherical coordinates. The east-west density difference which arises upon averaging the momentum equations is taken to be proportional to the meridional density gradient. Lateral exchanges of heat and salt between the basins are explicitly resolved. Moreover, the model includes bottom topography and has representations of the Arctic Ocean and of the Weddell and Ross seas. Under realistic restoring boundary conditions, the model reproduces the global conveyor belt: deep water is formed in the Atlantic between 60 and 70{degree}N at a rate of about 17 Sv (1 Sv=10{sup 6} m{sup 3}S{sup {minus}1}) and in the vicinity of the Antarctic continent, while the Indian and Pacific basins show broad upwelling. Superimposed on this thermohaline circulation are vigorous wind-driven cells in the upper thermocline. The simulated temperature and salinity fields and the computed meridional heat transport compare reasonably well with the observational estimates. When mixed boundary conditions i.e., a restoring condition no sea-surface temperature and flux condition on sea-surface salinity are applied, the model exhibits an irregular behavior before reaching a steady state characterized by self-sustained oscillations of 8.5-y period. The conveyor-belt circulation always results at this stage. A series of perturbation experiments illustrates the ability of the model to reproduce different steady-state circulations under mixed boundary conditions. Finally, the model sensitivity to various factors is examined. This sensitivity study reveals that the bottom topography and the presence of a submarine meridional ridge in the zone of the Drake passage play a crucial role in determining the properties of the model bottom-water masses. The importance of the seasonality of the surface forcing is also stressed.

  18. Bayesian Proteoform Modeling Improves Protein Quantification of Global Proteomic Measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo M.; Matzke, Melissa M.; Datta, Susmita; Payne, Samuel H.; Kang, Jiyun; Bramer, Lisa M.; Nicora, Carrie D.; Shukla, Anil K.; Metz, Thomas O.; Rodland, Karin D.; Smith, Richard D.; Tardiff, Mark F.; McDermott, Jason E.; Pounds, Joel G.; Waters, Katrina M.

    2014-12-01

    As the capability of mass spectrometry-based proteomics has matured, tens of thousands of peptides can be measured simultaneously, which has the benefit of offering a systems view of protein expression. However, a major challenge is that with an increase in throughput, protein quantification estimation from the native measured peptides has become a computational task. A limitation to existing computationally-driven protein quantification methods is that most ignore protein variation, such as alternate splicing of the RNA transcript and post-translational modifications or other possible proteoforms, which will affect a significant fraction of the proteome. The consequence of this assumption is that statistical inference at the protein level, and consequently downstream analyses, such as network and pathway modeling, have only limited power for biomarker discovery. Here, we describe a Bayesian model (BP-Quant) that uses statistically derived peptides signatures to identify peptides that are outside the dominant pattern, or the existence of multiple over-expressed patterns to improve relative protein abundance estimates. It is a research-driven approach that utilizes the objectives of the experiment, defined in the context of a standard statistical hypothesis, to identify a set of peptides exhibiting similar statistical behavior relating to a protein. This approach infers that changes in relative protein abundance can be used as a surrogate for changes in function, without necessarily taking into account the effect of differential post-translational modifications, processing, or splicing in altering protein function. We verify the approach using a dilution study from mouse plasma samples and demonstrate that BP-Quant achieves similar accuracy as the current state-of-the-art methods at proteoform identification with significantly better specificity. BP-Quant is available as a MatLab and R packages at https://github.com/PNNL-Comp-Mass-Spec/BP-Quant.

  19. Regional Climate Zone Modeling of a Commercial Absorption Heat Pump Hot Water Heater Part 1: Southern and South Central Climate Zones

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Geoghegan, Patrick J; Shen, Bo; Keinath, Christopher M.; Garrabrant, Michael A.

    2016-01-01

    Commercial hot water heating accounts for approximately 0.78 Quads of primary energy use with 0.44 Quads of this amount from natural gas fired heaters. An ammonia-water based commercial absorption system, if fully deployed, could achieve a high level of savings, much higher than would be possible by conversion to the high efficiency nonheat-pump gas fired alternatives. In comparison with air source electric heat pumps, the absorption system is able to maintain higher coefficients of performance in colder climates. The ammonia-water system also has the advantage of zero Ozone Depletion Potential and low Global Warming Potential. A thermodynamic model of a single effect ammonia-water absorption system for commercial space and water heating was developed, and its performance was investigated for a range of ambient and return water temperatures. This allowed for the development of a performance map which was then used in a building energy modeling software. Modeling of two commercial water heating systems was performed; one using an absorption heat pump and another using a condensing gas storage system. The energy and financial savings were investigated for a range of locations and climate zones in the southern and south central United States. A follow up paper will analyze northern and north/central regions. Results showed that the system using an absorption heat pump offers significant savings.

  20. Studies of regional-scale climate variability and change. Hidden Markov models and coupled ocean-atmosphere modes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghil, M.; Kravtsov, S.; Robertson, A. W.; Smyth, P.

    2008-10-14

    This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding, in which we had developed a twin approach of probabilistic network (PN) models (sometimes called dynamic Bayesian networks) and intermediate-complexity coupled ocean-atmosphere models (ICMs) to identify the predictable modes of climate variability and to investigate their impacts on the regional scale. We had developed a family of PNs (similar to Hidden Markov Models) to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale GCM seasonal predictions. Using an idealized atmospheric model, we had established a novel mechanism through which ocean-induced sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies might influence large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns on interannual and longer time scales; we had found similar patterns in a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice model. The goal of the this continuation project was to build on these ICM results and PN model development to address prediction of rainfall and temperature statistics at the local scale, associated with global climate variability and change, and to investigate the impact of the latter on coupled ocean-atmosphere modes. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling together with the development of associated software; new intermediate coupled models; a new methodology of inverse modeling for linking ICMs with observations and GCM results; and, observational studies of decadal and multi-decadal natural climate results, informed by ICM results.

  1. Stochastic Parameterization for Light Absorption by Internally Mixed BC/dust in Snow Grains for Application to Climate Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liou, K. N.; Takano, Y.; He, Cenlin; Yang, P.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Gu, Y.; Lee, W- L.

    2014-06-27

    A stochastic approach to model the positions of BC/dust internally mixed with two snow-grain types has been developed, including hexagonal plate/column (convex) and Koch snowflake (concave). Subsequently, light absorption and scattering analysis can be followed by means of an improved geometric-optics approach coupled with Monte Carlo photon tracing to determine their single-scattering properties. For a given shape (plate, Koch snowflake, spheroid, or sphere), internal mixing absorbs more light than external mixing. The snow-grain shape effect on absorption is relatively small, but its effect on the asymmetry factor is substantial. Due to a greater probability of intercepting photons, multiple inclusions of BC/dust exhibit a larger absorption than an equal-volume single inclusion. The spectral absorption (0.2 5 um) for snow grains internally mixed with BC/dust is confined to wavelengths shorter than about 1.4 um, beyond which ice absorption predominates. Based on the single-scattering properties determined from stochastic and light absorption parameterizations and using the adding/doubling method for spectral radiative transfer, we find that internal mixing reduces snow albedo more than external mixing and that the snow-grain shape plays a critical role in snow albedo calculations through the asymmetry factor. Also, snow albedo reduces more in the case of multiple inclusion of BC/dust compared to that of an equal-volume single sphere. For application to land/snow models, we propose a two-layer spectral snow parameterization containing contaminated fresh snow on top of old snow for investigating and understanding the climatic impact of multiple BC/dust internal mixing associated with snow grain metamorphism, particularly over mountains/snow topography.

  2. The Impact of IBM Cell Technology on the Programming Paradigm in the Context of Computer Systems for Climate and Weather Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Shujia; Duffy, Daniel; Clune, Thomas; Suarez, Max; Williams, Samuel; Halem, Milton

    2009-01-10

    The call for ever-increasing model resolutions and physical processes in climate and weather models demands a continual increase in computing power. The IBM Cell processor's order-of-magnitude peak performance increase over conventional processors makes it very attractive to fulfill this requirement. However, the Cell's characteristics, 256KB local memory per SPE and the new low-level communication mechanism, make it very challenging to port an application. As a trial, we selected the solar radiation component of the NASA GEOS-5 climate model, which: (1) is representative of column physics components (half the total computational time), (2) has an extremely high computational intensity: the ratio of computational load to main memory transfers, and (3) exhibits embarrassingly parallel column computations. In this paper, we converted the baseline code (single-precision Fortran) to C and ported it to an IBM BladeCenter QS20. For performance, we manually SIMDize four independent columns and include several unrolling optimizations. Our results show that when compared with the baseline implementation running on one core of Intel's Xeon Woodcrest, Dempsey, and Itanium2, the Cell is approximately 8.8x, 11.6x, and 12.8x faster, respectively. Our preliminary analysis shows that the Cell can also accelerate the dynamics component (~;;25percent total computational time). We believe these dramatic performance improvements make the Cell processor very competitive as an accelerator.

  3. CFD modeling of entrained-flow coal gasifiers with improved physical and chemical sub-models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ma, J.; Zitney, S.

    2012-01-01

    Optimization of an advanced coal-fired integrated gasification combined cycle system requires an accurate numerical prediction of gasifier performance. While the turbulent multiphase reacting flow inside entrained-flow gasifiers has been modeled through computational fluid dynamic (CFD), the accuracy of sub-models requires further improvement. Built upon a previously developed CFD model for entrained-flow gasification, the advanced physical and chemical sub-models presented here include a moisture vaporization model with consideration of high mass transfer rate, a coal devolatilization model with more species to represent coal volatiles and heating rate effect on volatile yield, and careful selection of global gas phase reaction kinetics. The enhanced CFD model is applied to simulate two typical oxygen-blown entrained-flow configurations including a single-stage down-fired gasifier and a two-stage up-fired gasifier. The CFD results are reasonable in terms of predicted carbon conversion, syngas exit temperature, and syngas exit composition. The predicted profiles of velocity, temperature, and species mole fractions inside the entrained-flow gasifier models show trends similar to those observed in a diffusion-type flame. The predicted distributions of mole fractions of major species inside both gasifiers can be explained by the heterogeneous combustion and gasification reactions and the homogeneous gas phase reactions. It was also found that the syngas compositions at the CFD model exits are not in chemical equilibrium, indicating the kinetics for both heterogeneous and gas phase homogeneous reactions are important. Overall, the results achieved here indicate that the gasifier models reported in this paper are reliable and accurate enough to be incorporated into process/CFD co-simulations of IGCC power plants for systemwide design and optimization.

  4. Modeling the effect of climate change on U.S. state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon E.; Eom, Jiyong; Kyle, G. Page; Patel, Pralit L.; Kim, Son H.; Dirks, James A.; Jensen, Erik A.; Liu, Ying; Rice, Jennie S.; Schmidt, Laurel C.; Seiple, Timothy E.

    2014-01-01

    As long-term socioeconomic transformation and energy service expansion show large spatial heterogeneity, advanced understanding of climate impact on building energy use at the sub-national level will offer useful insights into climate policy and regional energy system planning. In this study, we presented a detailed building energy model with a U.S. state-level representation, nested in the GCAM integrated assessment framework. We projected state-level building energy demand and its spatial pattern over the century, considering the impact of climate change based on the estimates of heating and cooling degree days derived from downscaled USGS CASCaDE temperature data. The result indicates that climate change has a large impact on heating and cooling building energy and fuel use at the state level, exhibiting large spatial heterogeneity across states (ranges from -10% to +10%). The sensitivity analysis reveals that the building energy demand is subject to multiple key factors, such as the magnitude of climate change, the choice of climate models, and the growth of population and GDP, and that their relative contributions vary greatly across the space. The scale impact in building energy use modeling highlights the importance of constructing a building energy model with the spatially-explicit representation of socioeconomics, energy system development, and climate change. These findings will help the climate-based policy decision and energy system, especially utility planning related to building sector at the U.S. state and regional level facing the potential climate change.

  5. Improved Modeling of Residential Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps for Energy Calculations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cutler, D.; Winkler, J.; Kruis, N.; Christensen, C.; Brendemuehl, M.

    2013-01-01

    This report presents improved air conditioner and heat pump modeling methods in the context of whole-building simulation tools, with the goal of enabling more accurate evaluation of cost effective equipment upgrade opportunities and efficiency improvements in residential buildings.

  6. Improving Air-Conditioner and Heat Pump Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Winkler, Jon

    2012-03-02

    This presentation describes a new approach to modeling residential air conditioners and heat pumps, which allows users to model systems by specifying only the more readily-available SEER/EER/HSPF-type metrics. Manufacturer data was used to generate full sets of model inputs for over 450 heat pumps and air conditioners. A sensitivity analysis identified which inputs can be safely defaulted behind-the-scenes without negatively impacting the reliability of energy simulations.

  7. Improving Air-Conditioner and Heat Pump Modeling (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Winkler, J.

    2012-03-01

    A new approach to modeling residential air conditioners and heat pumps allows users to model systems by specifying only the more readily-available SEER/EER/HSPF-type metrics. Manufacturer data was used to generate full sets of model inputs for over 450 heat pumps and air conditioners. A sensitivity analysis identified which inputs can be safely defaulted 'behind-the-scenes' without negatively impacting the reliability of energy simulations.

  8. Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This presentation by Amgad Elgowainy of Argonne National Laboratory was given at the Joint Meeting on Hydrogen Delivery Modeling and Analysis, May 8-9, 2007.

  9. Evaluating sub-national building-energy efficiency policy options under uncertainty: Efficient sensitivity testing of alternative climate, technolgical, and socioeconomic futures in a regional intergrated-assessment model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Zhou, Yuyu; Rice, Jennie S.; Patel, Pralit L.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Kyle, G. Page; Kim, Son H.; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.

    2014-05-01

    Improving the energy efficiency of the building stock, commercial equipment and household appliances can have a major impact on energy use, carbon emissions, and building services. Subnational regions such as U.S. states wish to increase their energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions or adapt to climate change. Evaluating subnational policies to reduce energy use and emissions is difficult because of the uncertainties in socioeconomic factors, technology performance and cost, and energy and climate policies. Climate change may undercut such policies. Assessing these uncertainties can be a significant modeling and computation burden. As part of this uncertainty assessment, this paper demonstrates how a decision-focused sensitivity analysis strategy using fractional factorial methods can be applied to reveal the important drivers for detailed uncertainty analysis.

  10. Dissemination of Climate Model Output to the Public and Commercial Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robert Stockwell, PhD

    2010-09-23

    Climate is defined by the Glossary of Meteorology as the mean of atmospheric variables over a period of time ranging from as short as a few months to multiple years and longer. Although the term climate is often used to refer to long-term weather statistics, the broader definition of climate is the time evolution of a system consisting of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. Physical, chemical, and biological processes are involved in interactions among the components of the climate system. Vegetation, soil moisture, and glaciers are part of the climate system in addition to the usually considered temperature and precipitation (Pielke, 2008). Climate change refers to any systematic change in the long-term statistics of climate elements (such as temperature, pressure, or winds) sustained over several decades or longer. Climate change can be initiated by external forces, such as cyclical variations in the Earth's solar orbit that are thought to have caused glacial and interglacial periods within the last 2 million years (Milankovitch, 1941). However, a linear response to astronomical forcing does not explain many other observed glacial and interglacial cycles (Petit et al., 1999). It is now understood that climate is influenced by the interaction of solar radiation with atmospheric greenhouse gasses (e.g., carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane, nitrous oxide, etc.), aerosols (airborne particles), and Earth's surface. A significant aspect of climate are the interannual cycles, such as the El Nino La Nina cycle which profoundly affects the weather in North America but is outside the scope of weather forecasts. Some of the most significant advances in understanding climate change have evolved from the recognition of the influence of ocean circulations upon the atmosphere (IPCC, 2007). Human activity can affect the climate system through increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases, air pollution, increasing concentrations of

  11. Improved Geothermometry Through Multivariate Reaction Path Modeling and Evaluation of Geomicrobiological Influences on Geochemical Temperature Indicators

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Improved Geothermometry Through Multivariate Reaction Path Modeling and Evaluation of Geomicrobiological Influences on Geochemical Temperature Indicators presentation at the April 2013 peer review meeting held in Denver, Colorado.

  12. Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bala, G; Mirin, A

    2007-01-19

    We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and ocean circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.

  13. Cirrus clouds in a global climate model with a statistical cirrus cloud scheme

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Minghuai; Penner, Joyce E.

    2010-06-21

    A statistical cirrus cloud scheme that accounts for mesoscale temperature perturbations is implemented in a coupled aerosol and atmospheric circulation model to better represent both subgrid-scale supersaturation and cloud formation. This new scheme treats the effects of aerosol on cloud formation and ice freezing in an improved manner, and both homogeneous freezing and heterogeneous freezing are included. The scheme is able to better simulate the observed probability distribution of relative humidity compared to the scheme that was implemented in an older version of the model. Heterogeneous ice nuclei (IN) are shown to decrease the frequency of occurrence of supersaturation, and improve the comparison with observations at 192 hPa. Homogeneous freezing alone can not reproduce observed ice crystal number concentrations at low temperatures (<205 K), but the addition of heterogeneous IN improves the comparison somewhat. Increases in heterogeneous IN affect both high level cirrus clouds and low level liquid clouds. Increases in cirrus clouds lead to a more cloudy and moist lower troposphere with less precipitation, effects which we associate with the decreased convective activity. The change in the net cloud forcing is not very sensitive to the change in ice crystal concentrations, but the change in the net radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere is still large because of changes in water vapor. Changes in the magnitude of the assumed mesoscale temperature perturbations by 25% alter the ice crystal number concentrations and the net radiative fluxes by an amount that is comparable to that from a factor of 10 change in the heterogeneous IN number concentrations. Further improvements on the representation of mesoscale temperature perturbations, heterogeneous IN and the competition between homogeneous freezing and heterogeneous freezing are needed.

  14. CRED: A New Model of Climate and Development | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    damages and climate policy costs. It is designed to estimate both the best pace of investment in mitigation and the best distribution of the cost of that investment to regions of...

  15. Building America Best Practices Series: Volume 5; Builders and Buyers Handbook for Improving New Home Efficiency, Comfort, and Durability in the Marine Climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baechler, M. C.; Taylor, Z. T.; Bartlett, R.; Gilbride, T.; Hefty, M.; Steward, H.; Love, P. M.; Palmer, J. A.

    2006-10-01

    This best practices guide is part of a series produced by Building America. The guide book is a resource to help builders large and small build high-quality, energy-efficient homes that achieve 30% energy savings in space conditioning and water heating in the Marine climate region. The savings are in comparison with the 1993 Model Energy Code. The guide contains chapters for every member of the builder's team--from the manager to the site planner to the designers, site supervisors, the trades, and marketers. There is also a chapter for homeowners on how to use the book to provide help in selecting a new home or builder.

  16. Building America Best Practices Series: Volume 4; Builders and Buyers Handbook for Improving New Home Efficiency, Comfort, and Durability in the Mixed-Humid Climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baechler, M. C.; Taylor, Z. T.; Bartlett, R.; Gilbride, T.; Hefty, M.; Steward, H.; Love, P. M.; Palmer, J. A.

    2005-09-01

    This best practices guide is part of a series produced by Building America. The guide book is a resource to help builders large and small build high-quality, energy-efficient homes that achieve 30% energy savings in space conditioning and water heating in the mixed-humid climate region. The savings are in comparison with the 1993 Model Energy Code. The guide contains chapters for every member of the builders team-from the manager to the site planner to the designers, site supervisors, the trades, and marketers. There is also a chapter for homeowners on how to use the book to provide help in selecting a new home or builder.

  17. Building America Best Practices Series: Volume 3; Builders and Buyers Handbook for Improving New Home Efficiency, Comfort, and Durability in Cold and Very Cold Climates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2005-08-01

    This best practices guide is part of a series produced by Building America. The guide book is a resource to help builders large and small build high-quality, energy-efficient homes that achieve 30% energy savings in space conditioning and water heating in the cold and very cold climates. The savings are in comparison with the 1993 Model Energy Code. The guide contains chapters for every member of the builder's team-from the manager to the site planner to the designers, site supervisors, the trades, and marketers. There is also a chapter for homeowners on how to use the book to provide help in selecting a new home or builder.

  18. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to CO{sub 2} and climate change. Final technical report, September 1, 1992--August 31, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reynolds, J.F.

    1998-04-10

    Objectives can be divided into those for plant modeling and those for ecosystem modeling and experimental work in support of both. The author worked in a variety of ecosystem types, including pine, arctic, desert, and grasslands. Plant modeling objectives are: (1) to construct generic models of leaf, canopy, and whole-plant response to elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change; (2) to validate predictions of whole-plant response against various field studies of elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change; (3) to use these models to test specific hypotheses and to make predictions about primary, secondary and tertiary effects of elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change on individual plants for conditions and time frames beyond those used to calibrate the model; and (4) to provide information to higher-level models, such as community models and ecosystem models. Ecosystem level modeling objectives are: (1) to incorporate models of plant responses to elevated CO{sub 2} into a generic ecosystem model in order to predict the direct and indirect effects of elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change on ecosystems; (2) to validate model predictions of total system-level response (including decomposition) against various ecosystem field studies of elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change; (3) to use the ecosystem model to test specific hypotheses and to make predictions about primary, secondary and tertiary effects of elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change on ecosystems for conditions and time frames beyond those used to calibrate the model; and (4) to use the ecosystem model to study effects of change in CO{sub 2} and climate at regional and global scales. Occasionally the author conducted some experimental work that was deemed important to the development of the models. This work was mainly physiological work that could be performed in the Duke University Phytotron, using existing facilities.

  19. Development of an equipment management model to improve effectiveness of processes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chang, H. S.; Ju, T. Y.; Song, T. Y.

    2012-07-01

    The nuclear industries have developed and are trying to create a performance model to improve effectiveness of the processes implemented at nuclear plants in order to enhance performance. Most high performing nuclear stations seek to continually improve the quality of their operations by identifying and closing important performance gaps. Thus, many utilities have implemented performance models adjusted to their plant's configuration and have instituted policies for such models. KHNP is developing a standard performance model to integrate the engineering processes and to improve the inter-relation among processes. The model, called the Standard Equipment Management Model (SEMM), is under development first by focusing on engineering processes and performance improvement processes related to plant equipment used at the site. This model includes performance indicators for each process that can allow evaluating and comparing the process performance among 21 operating units. The model will later be expanded to incorporate cost and management processes. (authors)

  20. Design report on SCDAP/RELAP5 model improvements - debris bed and molten pool behavior

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Allison, C.M.; Rempe, J.L.; Chavez, S.A.

    1994-11-01

    the SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3 computer code is designed to describe the overall reactor coolant system thermal-hydraulic response, core damage progression, and in combination with VICTORIA, fission product release and transport during severe accidents. Improvements for existing debris bed and molten pool models in the SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3.1 code are described in this report. Model improvements to address (a) debris bed formation, heating, and melting; (b) molten pool formation and growth; and (c) molten pool crust failure are discussed. Relevant data, existing models, proposed modeling changes, and the anticipated impact of the changes are discussed. Recommendations for the assessment of improved models are provided.

  1. Climate Perspectives

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Climate Perspectives Climate Perspectives: Change in the Terrestrial Arctic Rising temperatures are rapidly reshaping the terrestrial Arctic. Climate Perspectives: Change in the Terrestrial Arctic is an interactive look at Arctic climate change and climate science through the eyes of scientists and artists. Climate Perspectives slide 1 Climate Perspectives Climate Perspectives is interactive. This slideshow represents a sample of the content within the exhibit. Climate Perspectives slide 2

  2. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reeves, T.L.; Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.R.; Skinner, Q.D.

    1992-06-01

    The scope of this program is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 {times} 3.0 {times} 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by RBOSC to carry out this study. Research objectives were designed to evaluate hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical properties and conditions which would affect the design and performance of large-scale embankments. The objectives of this research are: assess the unsaturated movement and redistribution of water and the development of potential saturated zones and drainage in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the unsaturated movement of solubles and major chemical constituents in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the physical and constitutive properties of the processed oil shale and determine potential changes in these properties caused by disposal and weathering by natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the use of previously developed computer model(s) to describe the infiltration, unsaturated movement, redistribution, and drainage of water in disposed processed oil shale; evaluate the stability of field scale processed oil shale solid waste embankments using computer models.

  3. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reeves, T.L.; Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.R.; Skinner, Q.D.

    1992-06-01

    The scope of this program is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 [times] 3.0 [times] 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by RBOSC to carry out this study. Research objectives were designed to evaluate hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical properties and conditions which would affect the design and performance of large-scale embankments. The objectives of this research are: assess the unsaturated movement and redistribution of water and the development of potential saturated zones and drainage in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the unsaturated movement of solubles and major chemical constituents in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the physical and constitutive properties of the processed oil shale and determine potential changes in these properties caused by disposal and weathering by natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the use of previously developed computer model(s) to describe the infiltration, unsaturated movement, redistribution, and drainage of water in disposed processed oil shale; evaluate the stability of field scale processed oil shale solid waste embankments using computer models.

  4. Improving Energy Efficiency by Developing Components for Distributed Cooling and Heating Based on Thermal Comfort Modeling[Thermoelectric (TE) HVAC

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Discusses results from TE HVAC project to add detail to a human thermal comfort model and further allow load reduction in the climate control energy through a distributed TE network

  5. Improving Entrainment Rate Parameterization

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Entrainment Rate Parameterization For original submission and image(s), see ARM Research Highlights http://www.arm.gov/science/highlights/ Research Highlight Parameterization of entrainment rate is critical for improving representation of cloud- and convection-related processes in climate models; however, much remains unclear. This work seeks to improve understanding and parameterization of entrainment rate by use of aircraft observations and large-eddy simulations of shallow cumulus clouds over

  6. Electro-Thermal Modeling to Improve Battery Design: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bharathan, D.; Pesaran, A.; Kim, G.; Vlahinos, A.

    2005-09-01

    Operating temperature greatly affects the performance and life of batteries in electric and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). Increased attention is necessary to battery thermal management. Electrochemical models and finite element analysis tools are available for predicting the thermal performance of batteries, but each has limitations. This study describes an electro-thermal finite element approach that predicts the thermal performance of a battery cell or module with realistic geometry.

  7. Improving Battery Design with Electro-Thermal Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pesaran, A.; Vlahinos, A.; Bharathan, D.; Kim, G.-H.; Duong, T.

    2005-08-01

    Temperature greatly affects the performance and life of batteries in electric and hybrid vehicles under real driving conditions, so increased attention is being paid to battery thermal management. Sophisticated electrochemical models and finite element analysis tools are available for predicting the thermal performance of batteries, but each has limitations. In this study we describe an electro-thermal finite element approach that predicts the thermal performance of a cell or module with realistic geometry, material properties, loads, and boundary conditions.

  8. Climatically Diverse Data Set for Flat-Plate PV Module Model Validations (Presentation), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Climatically Diverse Data Set for Flat-Plate PV Module Model Validations Bill Marion 2013 Sandia PV Performance Modeling Workshop Santa Clara, CA, May 1-2, 2013 NREL/PR-5200-58600 2 Background * Work began in FY2011 to fulfill a FY2014 milestone for DOE's System Integration Technology Validation Project o "Comprehensive data set, with low measurement uncertainty, of I-V curves and associated meteorological data for PV modules representing all flat-plate technologies and for weather

  9. Final Technical Report for Collaborative Research: Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models, DE-FG02-07ER64429

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smyth, Padhraic

    2013-07-22

    This is the final report for a DOE-funded research project describing the outcome of research on non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. The main results consist of extensive development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to downscaling of rainfall projections over India; identification and analysis of decadal climate signals in data and models; and, studies of climate variability in terms of the dynamics of atmospheric flow regimes.

  10. EERE Success Story-Autonomie Modeling Tool Improves Vehicle Design and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Testing, Informs New Fuel Economy Standards | Department of Energy Autonomie Modeling Tool Improves Vehicle Design and Testing, Informs New Fuel Economy Standards EERE Success Story-Autonomie Modeling Tool Improves Vehicle Design and Testing, Informs New Fuel Economy Standards December 21, 2015 - 9:45am Addthis Autonomie, an advanced vehicle modeling and design software package created by Argonne National laboratory with EERE support, is helping U.S. auto manufacturers develop the next

  11. An assessment of possible climate change in the Australian region based on intercomparison of general circulation modeling results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whetton, P.H.; Pittock, A.B.; Haylock, M.R. ); Rayner, P.J. )

    1994-03-01

    To assist in estimating likely future climate change in the Australian region, the authors examine the results of four different general circulation modeling experiments run to assess the equilibrium impact of doubling greenhouse gases. The results examined were the most recent available at the time of study from various research centers in North America and Europe, as well as those of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). The approach used is, first, to assess the quality of the control (1 x CO[sub 2]) simulations from each of the models of mean sea level (MSL) pressure and precipitation in the Australian region by comparing these with the corresponding observed patterns; and, second, to then analyze the 2 x CO[sub 2] results of only those model experiments with the best control simulations. Of the models examined two are chosen on the basis of their simulation of current climate in the region: the CSIRO four-level model (CSIRO4) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) model. For conditions of equivalent doubling of CO[sub 2], both models show substantial increases in surface air temperature of around 4[degrees]-6[degrees] inland and 2[degrees]-4[degrees]C in coastal regions. Both models show decreased MSL pressure over the Australian continent and increases in rainfall over northern, central, and eastern Australia, particularly in the summer half of the year. The CSIRO4 model, but not the UKMO model, also shows increased pressure to the south of the continent and decreased winter rainfall in southwest and southern Australia. Generally, field significance tests show the pattern and magnitude of the changes to be significant of CSIRO4 (for which the necessary monthly simulated data were available). 42 refs., 20 figs., 5 tabs.

  12. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-08-25

    In this paper, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change impact

  13. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-08-25

    Abstract In this study, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change

  14. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-08-25

    In this paper, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumpingmore » scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change

  15. A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Schwarber, Adria; Link, Robert P.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2015-04-01

    Simple climate models play an integral role in the policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector v1.0, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global-scale earth system processes. Hector has a three-part main carbon cycle: a one-pool atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model's terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production and respiration fluxes, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector actively solves the inorganic carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air–sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO2], radiative forcing, and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with equivalent rates of change of key variables over time compared to current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Hector's flexibility, open-source nature, and modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.

  16. A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Schwarber, Adria; Link, Robert P.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2015-04-01

    Simple climate models play an integral role in the policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector v1.0, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global-scale earth system processes. Hector has a three-part main carbon cycle: a one-pool atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model's terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production and respiration fluxes, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector actively solves the inorganicmore » carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air–sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO2], radiative forcing, and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with equivalent rates of change of key variables over time compared to current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Hector's flexibility, open-source nature, and modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.« less

  17. RESIDUA UPGRADING EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT MODELS: COKE FORMATION PREDICTABILITY MAPS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John F. Schabron; A. Troy Pauli; Joseph F. Rovani Jr.

    2002-05-01

    The dispersed particle solution model of petroleum residua structure was used to develop predictors for pyrolytic coke formation. Coking Indexes were developed in prior years that measure how near a pyrolysis system is to coke formation during the coke formation induction period. These have been demonstrated to be universally applicable for residua regardless of the source of the material. Coking onset is coincidental with the destruction of the ordered structure and the formation of a multiphase system. The amount of coke initially formed appears to be a function of the free solvent volume of the original residua. In the current work, three-dimensional coke make predictability maps were developed at 400 C, 450 C, and 500 C (752 F, 842 F, and 932 F). These relate residence time and free solvent volume to the amount of coke formed at a particular pyrolysis temperature. Activation energies for two apparent types of zero-order coke formation reactions were estimated. The results provide a new tool for ranking residua, gauging proximity to coke formation, and predicting initial coke make tendencies.

  18. Dynamics of Arctic and Sub-Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Circulation: Diagnosis of Mechanisms and Biases Using Data Assimilation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eric T. DeWeaver

    2010-02-17

    The overall goal of work performed under this grant is to enhance understanding of simulations of present-day climate and greenhouse gas-induced climate change. The examination of present-day climate also includes diagnostic intercomparison of model simulations and observed mean climate and climate variability using reanalysis and satellite datasets. Enhanced understanding is desirable 1) as a prerequisite for improving simulations; 2) for assessing the credibility of model simulations and their usefulness as tools for decision support; and 3) as a means to identify robust behaviors which commonly occur over a wide range of models, and may yield insights regarding the dominant physical mechanisms which determine mean climate and produce climate change. A further objective is to investigate the use of data assimilation as a means for examining and correcting model biases. Our primary focus is on the Arctic, but the scope of the work was expanded to include the global climate system.

  19. Coupled ocean-atmosphere model system for studies of interannual-to-decadal climate variability over the North Pacific Basin and precipitation over the Southwestern United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lai, Chung-Chieng A.

    1997-10-01

    This is the final report of a one-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The ultimate objective of this research project is to make understanding and predicting regional climate easier. The long-term goals of this project are (1) to construct a coupled ocean-atmosphere model (COAM) system, (2) use it to explore the interannual-to-decadal climate variability over the North Pacific Basin, and (3) determine climate effects on the precipitation over the Southwestern United States. During this project life, three major tasks were completed: (1) Mesoscale ocean and atmospheric model; (2) global-coupled ocean and atmospheric modeling: completed the coupling of LANL POP global ocean model with NCAR CCM2+ global atmospheric model; and (3) global nested-grid ocean modeling: designed the boundary interface for the nested-grid ocean models.

  20. Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Martinich, Jeremy; Sarofim, Marcus; DeAngelo, B. J.; McFarland, Jim; Jantarasami, Lesley; Shouse, Kate C.; Crimmins, Allison; Ohrel, Sara; Li, Jia

    2015-07-01

    The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) modeling exercise is a unique contribution to the scientific literature on climate change impacts, economic damages, and risk analysis that brings together multiple, national-scale models of impacts and damages in an integrated and consistent fashion to estimate climate change impacts, damages, and the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the United States. The CIRA project uses three consistent socioeconomic, emissions, and climate scenarios across all models to estimate the benefits of GHG mitigation policies: a Business As Usual (BAU) and two policy scenarios with radiative forcing (RF) stabilization targets of 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 in 2100. CIRA was also designed to specifically examine the sensitivity of results to uncertainties around climate sensitivity and differences in model structure. The goals of CIRA project are to 1) build a multi-model framework to produce estimates of multiple risks and impacts in the U.S., 2) determine to what degree risks and damages across sectors may be lowered from a BAU to policy scenarios, 3) evaluate key sources of uncertainty along the causal chain, and 4) provide information for multiple audiences and clearly communicate the risks and damages of climate change and the potential benefits of mitigation. This paper describes the motivations, goals, and design of the CIRA modeling exercise and introduces the subsequent papers in this special issue.

  1. An improved model for the transit entropy of monatomic liquids

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wallace, Duane C; Chisolm, Eric D; Bock, Nicolas

    2009-01-01

    In the original formulation of V-T theory for monatomic liquid dynamics, the transit contribution to entropy was taken to be a universal constant, calibrated to the constant-volume entropy of melting. This model suffers two deficiencies: (a) it does not account for experimental entropy differences of {+-}2% among elemental liquids, and (b) it implies a value of zero for the transit contribution to internal energy. The purpose of this paper is to correct these deficiencies. To this end, the V-T equation for entropy is fitted to an overall accuracy of {+-}0.1% to the available experimental high temperature entropy data for elemental liquids. The theory contains two nuclear motion contributions: (a) the dominant vibrational contribution S{sub vib}(T/{theta}{sub 0}), where T is temperature and {theta}{sub 0} is the vibrational characteristic temperature, and (b) the transit contribution S{sub tr}(T/{theta}{sub tr}), where {theta}{sub tr} is a scaling temperature for each liquid. The appearance of a common functional form of S{sub tr} for all the liquids studied is a property of the experimental data, when analyzed via the V-T formula. The resulting S{sub tr} implies the correct transit contribution to internal energy. The theoretical entropy of melting is derived, in a single formula applying to normal and anomalous melting alike. An ab initio calculation of {theta}{sub 0}, based on density functional theory, is reported for liquid Na and Cu. Comparison of these calculations with the above analysis of experimental entropy data provides verification of V-T theory. In view of the present results, techniques currently being applied in ab initio simulations of liquid properties can be employed to advantage in the further testing and development of V-T theory.

  2. Report on activities and findings under DOE grant “Collaborative research. An Interactive Multi-Model for Consensus on Climate Change”

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Duane, Gregory S.; Tsonis, Anastasios; Kocarev, Ljupco; Tribbia, Joseph

    2015-10-30

    modes of variability are of interest. Therefore, the scheme may still be useful in the case of full climate models with qualitatively different parametrization schemes. A supermodel was constructed from the intermediate-complexity SPEEDO model, a primitive equation model with ocean and land. Versions defined by different parameter choices, in a realistic range, were connected and the coefficients trained. Some improvement was found as compared to output averaging. The learning algorithm used thus far gives sub-optimal, but still useful results when the CO2 level and other parameters are varied. Spatial structure remains to be studied. The first use of supermodeling with full climate models has been with variants of the ECHAM model that use different convection schemes. As yet the models are only connected at the ocean-atmosphere interface, where weighted combinations of fluxes from the two atmospheres are passed to a common ocean, and the weights adapted during a training period. The supermodel was surprisingly successful at avoiding unrealistic features such as the double-ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), a problem that arises in both of the two models run separately. The supermodels constructed thus far have not identified dynamical regime shifts in future climate. Thus the planned connection with the work of Tsonis on the relationship between regime shifts and synchronization/de-synchronization among the major climate modes (see U. Wisconsin report) has not yet been made. However the network analysis of the climate system, in observations and models, that was done in conjunction with that study, shows that models differ strongly from one another and from observations in regard to the dynamical structure described by correlation networks [Steinhaeuser and Tsonis 2013], providing a further justification for supermodeling. Toward a general software framework for supermodeling, three versions of CAM (the Community Atmosphere Model) at NCAR were configured

  3. Improved Arctic Cloud and Aerosol Research and Model Parameterizations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kenneth Sassen

    2007-03-01

    cloud modeling groups, such as the GEWEX Cloud Simulation Study (GCSS) Cirrus Working Groups. In this paper we summarize our IOP-related accomplishments.

  4. Impacts of Climate Change on Biofuels Production

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melillo, Jerry M.

    2014-04-30

    The overall goal of this research project was to improve and use our biogeochemistry model, TEM, to simulate the effects of climate change and other environmental changes on the production of biofuel feedstocks. We used the improved version of TEM that is coupled with the economic model, EPPA, a part of MIT’s Earth System Model, to explore how alternative uses of land, including land for biofuels production, can help society meet proposed climate targets. During the course of this project, we have made refinements to TEM that include development of a more mechanistic plant module, with improved ecohydrology and consideration of plant-water relations, and a more detailed treatment of soil nitrogen dynamics, especially processes that add or remove nitrogen from ecosystems. We have documented our changes to TEM and used the model to explore the effects on production in land ecosystems, including changes in biofuels production.

  5. Economic impact of climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eddy, A.

    1980-05-01

    This volume summarizes the first two of a series of six workshops to investigate the economic impact of climate. These two workshops dealt mainly with input-output and econometric models. Potential for introducing weather and climate variables was discussed. A listing of topics and authors follows: Economic Models and the Identification of Climatic Effects on Economic Processes, Stan Johnson; Economic Modeling, Jim Morgan; Econometric Modeling: State of the Arts for the US Agricultural Industry, Abner Womack; Regional Input-Output Models: Understanding Their Application, Charles Lamphear; Measuring Regional Economic Impact Associated With Unfavorable Conditions During Crop Production Periods: A concept Paper, Charles Lamphear; Possible Applications of Input-Output Models in Climatic Impact Analysis, William Cooter; and Aspects of Input-Output Analysis Pertinent to Climate-Economic Modeling: Three Short Notes, William Cooter. (PSB)

  6. The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) Software Development: Applications, Infrastructure, and Middleware/Networks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Williams, Dean N.

    2011-06-30

    The status of and future plans for the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) hinge on software that PCMDI is either currently distributing or plans to distribute to the climate community in the near future. These software products include standard conventions, national and international federated infrastructures, and community analysis and visualization tools. This report also mentions other secondary software not necessarily led by or developed at PCMDI to provide a complete picture of the overarching applications, infrastructures, and middleware/networks. Much of the software described anticipates the use of future technologies envisioned over the span of next year to 10 years. These technologies, together with the software, will be the catalyst required to address extreme-scale data warehousing, scalability issues, and service-level requirements for a diverse set of well-known projects essential for predicting climate change. These tools, unlike the previous static analysis tools of the past, will support the co-existence of many users in a productive, shared virtual environment. This advanced technological world driven by extreme-scale computing and the data it generates will increase scientists productivity, exploit national and international relationships, and push research to new levels of understanding.

  7. Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curry, Judith

    2015-05-21

    This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatory environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.

  8. Climate data, analysis and models for the study of natural variability and anthropogenic change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, Philip D.

    2014-07-31

    Europe in Cornes and Jones (2013) using station data, E-OBS and ERA-Interim. We have additionally considered the impact of the urban issue on the global scale using the results of the Compo et al. (2011) Reanalyses, 20CR. These only make use of SST and station pressure data. Across the world’s land areas, they indicate similar warming since 1900 to that which has occurred (Compo et al., 2013), again illustrating that urbanization is not the cause of the long-term warming. Changes in HadCRUH global land surface specific humidity and CRUTEM3 surface temperatures from 1973 to 1999 were compared to the CMIP3 archive of climate model simulations with 20th Century forcings (Willett et al., 2010). The models reproduce the magnitude of observed interannual variance over all large regions. Observed and modelled trends and temperature-humidity relationships are comparable with the exception of the extra-tropical Southern Hemisphere where observations exhibit no trend but models exhibit moistening.

  9. Technology Solutions Case Study: Improving Comfort in Hot-Humid Climates with a Whole-House Dehumidifier

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2013-11-01

    In order to quantify the performance of a combined whole-house dehumidifier (WHD) AC system, researchers from the Consortium of Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB) team monitored the operation of two Lennox AC systems coupled with a Honeywell DH150 TrueDRY whole-house dehumidifier for a six-month period. By using a WHD to control moisture levels (latent cooling) and optimizing a central AC to control temperature (sensible cooling), improvements in comfort can be achieved while reducing utility costs. Indoor comfort for this study was defined as maintaining indoor conditions at below 60% RH and a humidity ratio of 0.012 lbm/lbm while at common dry bulb set point temperatures of 74-80F. In addition to enhanced comfort, controlling moisture to these levels can reduce the risk of other potential issues such as mold growth, pests, and building component degradation. Because a standard AC must also reduce dry bulb air temperature in order to remove moisture, a WHD is typically needed to support these latent loads when sensible heat removal is not desired.

  10. Efficient Screening of Climate Model Sensitivity to a Large Number of Perturbed Input Parameters [plus supporting information

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Covey, Curt; Lucas, Donald D.; Tannahill, John; Garaizar, Xabier; Klein, Richard

    2013-07-01

    Modern climate models contain numerous input parameters, each with a range of possible values. Since the volume of parameter space increases exponentially with the number of parameters N, it is generally impossible to directly evaluate a model throughout this space even if just 2-3 values are chosen for each parameter. Sensitivity screening algorithms, however, can identify input parameters having relatively little effect on a variety of output fields, either individually or in nonlinear combination.This can aid both model development and the uncertainty quantification (UQ) process. Here we report results from a parameter sensitivity screening algorithm hitherto untested in climate modeling,more » the Morris one-at-a-time (MOAT) method. This algorithm drastically reduces the computational cost of estimating sensitivities in a high dimensional parameter space because the sample size grows linearly rather than exponentially with N. It nevertheless samples over much of the N-dimensional volume and allows assessment of parameter interactions, unlike traditional elementary one-at-a-time (EOAT) parameter variation. We applied both EOAT and MOAT to the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), assessing CAM’s behavior as a function of 27 uncertain input parameters related to the boundary layer, clouds, and other subgrid scale processes. For radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere, EOAT and MOAT rank most input parameters similarly, but MOAT identifies a sensitivity that EOAT underplays for two convection parameters that operate nonlinearly in the model. MOAT’s ranking of input parameters is robust to modest algorithmic variations, and it is qualitatively consistent with model development experience. Supporting information is also provided at the end of the full text of the article.« less

  11. Improved Modeling of Residential Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps for Energy Calculations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cutler, D.; Winkler, J.; Kruis, N.; Christensen, C.; Brandemuehl, M.

    2013-01-01

    This report presents improved air conditioner and heat pump modeling methods in the context of whole-building simulation tools, with the goal of enabling more accurate evaluation of cost-effective equipment upgrade opportunities and efficiency improvements in residential buildings.

  12. Development of Integrated ASR Model Forcing Data and Their Applications to Improve CAM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Minghua

    2016-01-01

    In this project, we have (1) improved the constrained variational analysis algorithm of ARM model forcing data, and (2) used the ARM forcing data to identify systematic biases in clouds and radiation in the CAM5 and design new physical parameterizations to improve it.

  13. Application of an online-coupled regional climate model, WRF-CAM5, over East Asia for examination of ice nucleation schemes: Part I. Comprehensive model evaluation and trend analysis for 2006 and 2011

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Chen, Ying; Zhang, Yang; Fan, Jiwen; Leung, Lai -Yung; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin

    2015-08-18

    Online-coupled climate and chemistry models are necessary to realistically represent the interactions between climate variables and chemical species and accurately simulate aerosol direct and indirect effects on cloud, precipitation, and radiation. In this Part I of a two-part paper, simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the physics package of Community Atmosphere Model (WRF-CAM5) are conducted with the default heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization over East Asia for two full years: 2006 and 2011. A comprehensive model evaluation is performed using satellite and surface observations. The model shows an overall acceptable performance for major meteorological variables at themore » surface and in the boundary layer, as well as column variables (e.g., precipitation, cloud fraction, precipitating water vapor, downward longwave and shortwave radiation). Moderate to large biases exist for cloud condensation nuclei over oceanic areas, cloud variables (e.g., cloud droplet number concentration, cloud liquid and ice water paths, cloud optical depth, longwave and shortwave cloud forcing). These biases indicate a need to improve the model treatments for cloud processes, especially cloud droplets and ice nucleation, as well as to reduce uncertainty in the satellite retrievals. The model simulates well the column abundances of chemical species except for column SO2 but relatively poor for surface concentrations of several species such as CO, NO2, SO2, PM2.5, and PM10. Several reasons could contribute to the underestimation of major chemical species in East Asia including underestimations of anthropogenic emissions and natural dust emissions, uncertainties in the spatial and vertical distributions of the anthropogenic emissions, as well as biases in meteorological, radiative, and cloud predictions. Despite moderate to large biases in the chemical predictions, the model performance is generally consistent with or even better than that

  14. Application of an online-coupled regional climate model, WRF-CAM5, over East Asia for examination of ice nucleation schemes: Part I. Comprehensive model evaluation and trend analysis for 2006 and 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, Ying; Zhang, Yang; Fan, Jiwen; Leung, Lai -Yung; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin

    2015-08-18

    Online-coupled climate and chemistry models are necessary to realistically represent the interactions between climate variables and chemical species and accurately simulate aerosol direct and indirect effects on cloud, precipitation, and radiation. In this Part I of a two-part paper, simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the physics package of Community Atmosphere Model (WRF-CAM5) are conducted with the default heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization over East Asia for two full years: 2006 and 2011. A comprehensive model evaluation is performed using satellite and surface observations. The model shows an overall acceptable performance for major meteorological variables at the surface and in the boundary layer, as well as column variables (e.g., precipitation, cloud fraction, precipitating water vapor, downward longwave and shortwave radiation). Moderate to large biases exist for cloud condensation nuclei over oceanic areas, cloud variables (e.g., cloud droplet number concentration, cloud liquid and ice water paths, cloud optical depth, longwave and shortwave cloud forcing). These biases indicate a need to improve the model treatments for cloud processes, especially cloud droplets and ice nucleation, as well as to reduce uncertainty in the satellite retrievals. The model simulates well the column abundances of chemical species except for column SO2 but relatively poor for surface concentrations of several species such as CO, NO2, SO2, PM2.5, and PM10. Several reasons could contribute to the underestimation of major chemical species in East Asia including underestimations of anthropogenic emissions and natural dust emissions, uncertainties in the spatial and vertical distributions of the anthropogenic emissions, as well as biases in meteorological, radiative, and cloud predictions. Despite moderate to large biases in the chemical predictions, the model performance is

  15. he Impact of Primary Marine Aerosol on Atmospheric Chemistry, Radiation and Climate: A CCSM Model Development Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Keene, William C.; Long, Michael S.

    2013-05-20

    This project examined the potential large-scale influence of marine aerosol cycling on atmospheric chemistry, physics and radiative transfer. Measurements indicate that the size-dependent generation of marine aerosols by wind waves at the ocean surface and the subsequent production and cycling of halogen-radicals are important but poorly constrained processes that influence climate regionally and globally. A reliable capacity to examine the role of marine aerosol in the global-scale atmospheric system requires that the important size-resolved chemical processes be treated explicitly. But the treatment of multiphase chemistry across the breadth of chemical scenarios encountered throughout the atmosphere is sensitive to the initial conditions and the precision of the solution method. This study examined this sensitivity, constrained it using high-resolution laboratory and field measurements, and deployed it in a coupled chemical-microphysical 3-D atmosphere model. First, laboratory measurements of fresh, unreacted marine aerosol were used to formulate a sea-state based marine aerosol source parameterization that captured the initial organic, inorganic, and physical conditions of the aerosol population. Second, a multiphase chemical mechanism, solved using the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry's MECCA (Module Efficiently Calculating the Chemistry of the Atmosphere) system, was benchmarked across a broad set of observed chemical and physical conditions in the marine atmosphere. Using these results, the mechanism was systematically reduced to maximize computational speed. Finally, the mechanism was coupled to the 3-mode modal aerosol version of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM v3.6.33). Decadal-scale simulations with CAM v.3.6.33, were run both with and without reactive-halogen chemistry and with and without explicit treatment of particulate organic carbon in the marine aerosol source function. Simulated results were interpreted (1) to evaluate influences of

  16. Use of North American and European air quality networks to evaluate global chemistry-climate modeling of surface ozone

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Schnell, J. L.; Prather, M. J.; Josse, B.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L. W.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Bergmann, D.; Zeng, G.; Plummer, D. A.; Sudo, K.; et al

    2015-04-16

    We test the current generation of global chemistry-climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1° × 1° grid cells, allowing commensurate model-measurement comparison. Models are generally biased high during all hours of the day and in all regions. Most models simulate the shape of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles well, correctly matching the timing of hourly (~ 15:00) and monthly (mid-June) peak surface ozone abundance. The amplitude of these cycles is less successfully matched. The observedmore » summertime diurnal range (~ 25 ppb) is underestimated in all regions by about 7 ppb, and the observed seasonal range (~ 21 ppb) is underestimated by about 5 ppb except in the most polluted regions where it is overestimated by about 5 ppb. The models generally match the pattern of the observed summertime ozone enhancement, but they overestimate its magnitude in most regions. Most models capture the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes, correctly showing that about 80% of individual extreme events occur in large-scale, multi-day episodes of more than 100 grid cells. The observed linear relationship showing increases in ozone by up to 6 ppb for larger-sized episodes is also matched.« less

  17. Multi-model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation of Historical and Projected Future Changes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Dentener, Frank; McConnell, J.R.; Ro, C-U; Shaw, Mark; Vet, Robert; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Dalsoren, S.; Doherty, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, Steven J.; Josse, B.; Lee, Y. H.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, David; Shindell, Drew; Skeie, R. B.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S.; Zeng, G.; Curran, M.; Dahl-Jensen, D.; Das, S.; Fritzsche, D.; Nolan, M.

    2013-08-20

    We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States, but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching >1300 mgN/m2/yr averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, ~30-50% larger than the values in any region currently (2000). Despite known issues, the new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

  18. Ecosystem feedbacks to climate change in California: Development, testing, and analysis using a coupled regional atmosphere and land-surface model (WRF3-CLM3.5)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Subin, Z.M.; Riley, W.J.; Kueppers, L.M.; Jin, J.; Christianson, D.S.; Torn, M.S.

    2010-11-01

    A regional atmosphere model [Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3 (WRF3)] and a land surface model [Community Land Model, version 3.5 (CLM3.5)] were coupled to study the interactions between the atmosphere and possible future California land-cover changes. The impact was evaluated on California's climate of changes in natural vegetation under climate change and of intentional afforestation. The ability of WRF3 to simulate California's climate was assessed by comparing simulations by WRF3-CLM3.5 and WRF3-Noah to observations from 1982 to 1991. Using WRF3-CLM3.5, the authors performed six 13-yr experiments using historical and future large-scale climate boundary conditions from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The land-cover scenarios included historical and future natural vegetation from the Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System-Century 1 (MC1) dynamic vegetation model, in addition to a future 8-million-ha California afforestation scenario. Natural vegetation changes alone caused summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature changes of -0.7 to +1 C in regions without persistent snow cover, depending on the location and the type of vegetation change. Vegetation temperature changes were much larger than the 2-m air temperature changes because of the finescale spatial heterogeneity of the imposed vegetation change. Up to 30% of the magnitude of the summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature increase and 70% of the magnitude of the 1600 local time (LT) vegetation temperature increase projected under future climate change were attributable to the climate-driven shift in land cover. The authors projected that afforestation could cause local 0.2-1.2 C reductions in summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature and 2.0-3.7 C reductions in 1600 LT vegetation temperature for snow-free regions, primarily because of increased evapotranspiration. Because some of these temperature changes are of comparable magnitude to those projected under

  19. Operation Periods: Single Column Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2 Fall 2002 Intensive Operation Periods: Single Column Model and Unmanned Aerospace Vehicle In an Intensive Operation Period (IOP) on November 3-23, 2002, researchers at the SGP CART site are collecting a detailed data set for use in improving the Single Column Model (SCM), a scaled- down climate model. The SCM represents one vertical column of air above Earth's surface and requires less computation time than a full-scale global climate model. Researchers first use the SCM to efficiently improve

  20. Modeling & Analysis

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    National Solar Thermal Test Facility Nuclear ... Climate & Earth Systems Climate Measurement & Modeling ... Tribal Energy Program Intellectual Property Current EC ...

  1. Climate System Response to External Forcings and Climate Change Projections

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    in CCSM4 | Argonne Leadership Computing Facility Climate System Response to External Forcings and Climate Change Projections in CCSM4 Authors: Meehl, G.A., Washington, WM, Arblaster, JM, Hu, A., Teng, H., Tebaldi, C., White III, J.B., Strand Jr., WG Results are presented from experiments performed with the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). These include multiple ensemble members of 20th century climate with

  2. Improved blade profile loss and deviation angle models for advanced transonic compressor bladings. Part 1: A model for subsonic flow

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koenig, W.M.; Hennecke, D.K.; Fottner, L.

    1996-01-01

    New blading concepts as used in modern transonic axial-flow compressors require improved loss and deviation angle correlations. The new model presented in this paper incorporates several elements and treats blade-row flows having subsonic and supersonic inlet conditions separately. In the first part of this paper two proved and well-established profile loss correlations for subsonic flows are extended to quasi-two-dimensional conditions and to custom-tailored blade designs. Instead of a deviation angle correlation, a simple method based on singularities is utilized. The comparison between the new model and a recently published model demonstrates the improved accuracy in prediction of cascade performance achieved by the new model.

  3. Use of North American and European air quality networks to evaluate global chemistry–climate modeling of surface ozone

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Schnell, J. L.; Prather, M. J.; Josse, B.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L. W.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Bergmann, D.; Zeng, G.; Plummer, D. A.; Sudo, K.; et al

    2015-09-25

    We test the current generation of global chemistry–climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1° × 1° grid cells, allowing commensurate model–measurement comparison. Models are generally biased high during all hours of the day and in all regions. Most models simulate the shape of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles well, correctly matching the timing of hourly (~ 15:00 local time (LT)) and monthly (mid-June) peak surface ozone abundance. The amplitude of these cycles is less successfullymore » matched. The observed summertime diurnal range (~ 25 ppb) is underestimated in all regions by about 7 ppb, and the observed seasonal range (~ 21 ppb) is underestimated by about 5 ppb except in the most polluted regions, where it is overestimated by about 5 ppb. The models generally match the pattern of the observed summertime ozone enhancement, but they overestimate its magnitude in most regions. Most models capture the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes, correctly showing that about 80 % of individual extreme events occur in large-scale, multi-day episodes of more than 100 grid cells. The models also match the observed linear relationship between episode size and a measure of episode intensity, which shows increases in ozone abundance by up to 6 ppb for larger-sized episodes. We conclude that the skill of the models evaluated here provides confidence in their projections of future surface ozone.« less

  4. Improvement of capabilities of the Distributed Electrochemistry Modeling Tool for investigating SOFC long term performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gonzalez Galdamez, Rinaldo A.; Recknagle, Kurtis P.

    2012-04-30

    This report provides an overview of the work performed for Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) modeling during the 2012 Winter/Spring Science Undergraduate Laboratory Internship at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). A brief introduction on the concept, operation basics and applications of fuel cells is given for the general audience. Further details are given regarding the modifications and improvements of the Distributed Electrochemistry (DEC) Modeling tool developed by PNNL engineers to model SOFC long term performance. Within this analysis, a literature review on anode degradation mechanisms is explained and future plans of implementing these into the DEC modeling tool are also proposed.

  5. An improved constitutive model for cyclic material behavior in creep range

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kussmaul, K.; Maile, K.; Xu, H.; Sheng, S.

    1995-12-31

    Structural components operated at elevated temperatures are often subjected to complex loading histories combining cyclic plasticity and creep. The design and life prediction of these components require accurate description of the non-linear stress-strain response under the cyclic loading. In the paper the results of an ongoing R&D-programme performed at MPA Stuttgart is presented. The objective of this work is to model the cyclic material behavior in the temperature range where time-dependent plasticity is dominant. A series of tests from room temperature UP to 550{degrees}C have been carried out to determine the cyclic material behavior of the turbine steels 1 CrMoV, 2CrMoVNiW and the bolt material Nimonic 80A. On the basis of the acquired experimental data the commonly used constitutive model developed by Chaboche et al. is evaluated and improved. The following aspects are considered in the improved model: Influence of the kinematic back stress on the viscoplastic material behavior Description of the temperature dependent and time-dependent viscosity Method of determination of the material constants used in the model: The comparison of these analytical results and the experimental data shows that the improved model is suitable to describe the cyclic material behavior under uniaxial loading. To verify the developed model for multiaxial loading on the basis of the test data, an implementation of the constitutive model in a finite element code will be performed.

  6. Improving Power System Modeling. A Tool to Link Capacity Expansion and Production Cost Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Cole, Wesley; Sullivan, Patrick; Brinkman, Gregory; Margolis, Robert

    2015-11-01

    Capacity expansion models (CEM) provide a high-level long-term view at the prospects of the evolving power system. In simulating the possibilities of long-term capacity expansion, it is important to maintain the viability of power system operation in the short-term (daily, hourly and sub-hourly) scales. Production-cost models (PCM) simulate routine power system operation on these shorter time scales using detailed load, transmission and generation fleet data by minimizing production costs and following reliability requirements. When based on CEM 'predictions' about generating unit retirements and buildup, PCM provide more detailed simulation for the short-term system operation and, consequently, may confirm the validity of capacity expansion predictions. Further, production cost model simulations of a system that is based on capacity expansion model solution are 'evolutionary' sound: the generator mix is the result of logical sequence of unit retirement and buildup resulting from policy and incentives. The above has motivated us to bridge CEM with PCM by building a capacity expansion - to - production cost model Linking Tool (CEPCoLT). The Linking Tool is built to onset capacity expansion model prescriptions onto production cost model inputs. NREL's ReEDS and Energy Examplar's PLEXOS are the capacity expansion and the production cost models, respectively. Via the Linking Tool, PLEXOS provides details of operation for the regionally-defined ReEDS scenarios.

  7. Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Gerald; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Mueller, C.; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2013-12-16

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and will thus be directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway that result in end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 watts per square meter. The mean biophysical impact on crop yield with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17 percent reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11 percent, increase area of major crops by 12 percent, and reduce consumption by 2 percent. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences includes model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

  8. On an improved sub-regional water resources management representation for integration into earth system models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voisin, Nathalie; Li, Hongyi; Ward, Duane L.; Huang, Maoyi; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-09-30

    Human influence on the hydrologic cycle includes regulation and storage, consumptive use and overall redistribution of water resources in space and time. Representing these processes is essential for applications of earth system models in hydrologic and climate predictions, as well as impact studies at regional to global scales. Emerging large-scale research reservoir models use generic operating rules that are flexible for coupling with earth system models. Those generic operating rules have been successful in reproducing the overall regulated flow at large basin scales. This study investigates the uncertainties of the reservoir models from different implementations of the generic operating rules using the complex multi-objective Columbia River Regulation System in northwestern United States as an example to understand their effects on not only regulated flow but also reservoir storage and fraction of the demand that is met. Numerical experiments are designed to test new generic operating rules that combine storage and releases targets for multi-purpose reservoirs and to compare the use of reservoir usage priorities, withdrawals vs. consumptive demand, as well as natural vs. regulated mean flow for calibrating operating rules. Overall the best performing implementation is the use of the combined priorities (flood control storage targets and irrigation release targets) operating rules calibrated with mean annual natural flow and mean monthly withdrawals. The challenge of not accounting for groundwater withdrawals, or on the contrary, assuming that all remaining demand is met through groundwater extractions, is discussed.

  9. Building America Best Practices Series: Volume 3; Builders and Buyers Handbook for Improving New Home Efficiency, Comfort, and Durability in the Cold and Very Cold Climates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2005-08-01

    The guide book is a resource to help builders large and small build high-quality, energy-efficient homes that achieve 30% energy savings in space conditioning and water heating in the cold and very cold climates.

  10. Building America Best Practices Series: Volume 4; Builders and Buyers Handbook for Improving New Home Efficiency, Comfort, and Durability in the Mixed-Humid Climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2005-09-01

    This guide book is a resource to help builders large and small build high-quality, energy-efficient homes that achieve 30% energy savings in space conditioning and water heating in the mixed-humid climate region.

  11. Climatically Diverse Data Set for Flat-Plate PV Module Model Validations (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marion, B.

    2013-05-01

    Photovoltaic (PV) module I-V curves were measured at Florida, Colorado, and Oregon locations to provide data for the validation and development of models used for predicting the performance of PV modules.

  12. Toward a new parameterization of hydraulic conductivity in climate models: Simulation of rapid groundwater fluctuations in Northern California

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Vrettas, Michail D.; Fung, Inez Y.

    2015-12-31

    Preferential flow through weathered bedrock leads to rapid rise of the water table after the first rainstorms and significant water storage (also known as ‘‘rock moisture’’) in the fractures. We present a new parameterization of hydraulic conductivity that captures the preferential flow and is easy to implement in global climate models. To mimic the naturally varying heterogeneity with depth in the subsurface, the model represents the hydraulic conductivity as a product of the effective saturation and a background hydraulic conductivity Kbkg, drawn from a lognormal distribution. The mean of the background Kbkg decreases monotonically with depth, while its variance reducesmore » with the effective saturation. Model parameters are derived by assimilating into Richards’ equation 6 years of 30 min observations of precipitation (mm) and water table depths (m), from seven wells along a steep hillslope in the Eel River watershed in Northern California. The results show that the observed rapid penetration of precipitation and the fast rise of the water table from the well locations, after the first winter rains, are well captured with the new stochastic approach in contrast to the standard van Genuchten model of hydraulic conductivity, which requires significantly higher levels of saturated soils to produce the same results. ‘‘Rock moisture,’’ the moisture between the soil mantle and the water table, comprises 30% of the moisture because of the great depth of the weathered bedrock layer and could be a potential source of moisture to sustain trees through extended dry periods. Moreover, storage of moisture in the soil mantle is smaller, implying less surface runoff and less evaporation, with the proposed new model.« less

  13. Toward a new parameterization of hydraulic conductivity in climate models: Simulation of rapid groundwater fluctuations in Northern California

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrettas, Michail D.; Fung, Inez Y.

    2015-12-31

    Preferential flow through weathered bedrock leads to rapid rise of the water table after the first rainstorms and significant water storage (also known as ‘‘rock moisture’’) in the fractures. We present a new parameterization of hydraulic conductivity that captures the preferential flow and is easy to implement in global climate models. To mimic the naturally varying heterogeneity with depth in the subsurface, the model represents the hydraulic conductivity as a product of the effective saturation and a background hydraulic conductivity Kbkg, drawn from a lognormal distribution. The mean of the background Kbkg decreases monotonically with depth, while its variance reduces with the effective saturation. Model parameters are derived by assimilating into Richards’ equation 6 years of 30 min observations of precipitation (mm) and water table depths (m), from seven wells along a steep hillslope in the Eel River watershed in Northern California. The results show that the observed rapid penetration of precipitation and the fast rise of the water table from the well locations, after the first winter rains, are well captured with the new stochastic approach in contrast to the standard van Genuchten model of hydraulic conductivity, which requires significantly higher levels of saturated soils to produce the same results. ‘‘Rock moisture,’’ the moisture between the soil mantle and the water table, comprises 30% of the moisture because of the great depth of the weathered bedrock layer and could be a potential source of moisture to sustain trees through extended dry periods. Moreover, storage of moisture in the soil mantle is smaller, implying less surface runoff and less evaporation, with the proposed new model.

  14. Taking off the training wheels: the properties of a dynamic vegetation model without climate envelopes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fisher, R. A.; Muszala, S.; Verteinstein, M.; Lawrence, P.; Xu, C.; McDowell, N. G.; Knox, R. G.; Koven, C.; Holm, J.; Rogers, B. M.; Lawrence, D.; Bonan, G.

    2015-04-29

    We describe an implementation of the Ecosystem Demography (ED) concept in the Community Land Model. The structure of CLM(ED) and the physiological and structural modifications applied to the CLM are presented. A major motivation of this development is to allow the prediction of biome boundaries directly from plant physiological traits via their competitive interactions. Here we investigate the performance of the model for an example biome boundary in Eastern North America. We explore the sensitivity of the predicted biome boundaries and ecosystem properties to the variation of leaf properties determined by the parameter space defined by the GLOPNET global leaf trait database. Further, we investigate the impact of four sequential alterations to the structural assumptions in the model governing the relative carbon economy of deciduous and evergreen plants. The default assumption is that the costs and benefits of deciduous vs. evergreen leaf strategies, in terms of carbon assimilation and expenditure, can reproduce the geographical structure of biome boundaries and ecosystem functioning. We find some support for this assumption, but only under particular combinations of model traits and structural assumptions. Many questions remain regarding the preferred methods for deployment of plant trait information in land surface models. In some cases, plant traits might best be closely linked with each other, but we also find support for direct linkages to environmental conditions. We advocate for intensified study of the costs and benefits of plant life history strategies in different environments, and for the increased use of parametric and structural ensembles in the development and analysis of complex vegetation models.

  15. Taking off the training wheels: the properties of a dynamic vegetation model without climate envelopes

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Fisher, R. A.; Muszala, S.; Verteinstein, M.; Lawrence, P.; Xu, C.; McDowell, N. G.; Knox, R. G.; Koven, C.; Holm, J.; Rogers, B. M.; et al

    2015-04-29

    We describe an implementation of the Ecosystem Demography (ED) concept in the Community Land Model. The structure of CLM(ED) and the physiological and structural modifications applied to the CLM are presented. A major motivation of this development is to allow the prediction of biome boundaries directly from plant physiological traits via their competitive interactions. Here we investigate the performance of the model for an example biome boundary in Eastern North America. We explore the sensitivity of the predicted biome boundaries and ecosystem properties to the variation of leaf properties determined by the parameter space defined by the GLOPNET global leafmore » trait database. Further, we investigate the impact of four sequential alterations to the structural assumptions in the model governing the relative carbon economy of deciduous and evergreen plants. The default assumption is that the costs and benefits of deciduous vs. evergreen leaf strategies, in terms of carbon assimilation and expenditure, can reproduce the geographical structure of biome boundaries and ecosystem functioning. We find some support for this assumption, but only under particular combinations of model traits and structural assumptions. Many questions remain regarding the preferred methods for deployment of plant trait information in land surface models. In some cases, plant traits might best be closely linked with each other, but we also find support for direct linkages to environmental conditions. We advocate for intensified study of the costs and benefits of plant life history strategies in different environments, and for the increased use of parametric and structural ensembles in the development and analysis of complex vegetation models.« less

  16. Dynamics of Arctic and Sub-Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Circulation: Diagnosis of Mechanisms and Model Biases Using data Assimilation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sumant Nigam

    2013-02-05

    These five publications are summarized: Key role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in 20th century drought and wet periods over the Great Plains; A Sub-Seasonal Teleconnection Analysis: PNA Development and Its Relationship to the NAO; AMO's Structure and Climate Footprint in Observations and IPCC AR5 Climate Simulations; The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in 20th Century Climate Simulations: Uneven Progress from CMIP3 to CMIP5; and Tropical Atlantic Biases in CCSM4.

  17. Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit; Mundra, Anupriya

    2016-08-01

    and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.« less

  18. Multi-physics Modeling for Improving Li-Ion Battery Safety; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pesaran, A.; Kim, G.; Santhanagopalan, S.; Yang, C.

    2015-04-21

    Battery performance, cost, and safety must be further improved for larger market share of HEVs/PEVs and penetration into the grid. Significant investment is being made to develop new materials, fine tune existing ones, improve cell and pack designs, and enhance manufacturing processes to increase performance, reduce cost, and make batteries safer. Modeling, simulation, and design tools can play an important role by providing insight on how to address issues, reducing the number of build-test-break prototypes, and accelerating the development cycle of generating products.

  19. ARM - Climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Climate Climate refers to the long-term changes in ...

  20. Distributed modeling of ablation (1996–2011) and climate sensitivity on the glaciers of Taylor Valley, Antarctica

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hoffman, Matthew J.; Fountain, Andrew G.; Liston, Glen E.

    2016-02-24

    Here, the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica host the coldest and driest ecosystem on Earth, which is acutely sensitive to the availability of water coming from glacial runoff. We modeled the spatial variability in ablation and assessed climate sensitivity of the glacier ablation zones using 16 years of meteorological and surface mass-balance observations collected in Taylor Valley. Sublimation was the primary form of mass loss over much of the ablation zones, except for near the termini where melt, primarily below the surface, dominated. Microclimates in ~10 m scale topographic basins generated melt rates up to ten times higher than overmore » smooth glacier surfaces. In contrast, the vertical terminal cliffs on the glaciers can have higher or lower melt rates than the horizontal surfaces due to differences in incoming solar radiation. The model systematically underpredicted ablation for the final 5 years studied, possibly due to an increase of windblown sediment. Surface mass-balance sensitivity to temperature was ~–0.02 m w.e. K–1, which is among the smallest magnitudes observed globally. We also identified a high sensitivity to ice albedo, with a decrease of 0.02 having similar effects as a 1 K increase in temperature, and a complex sensitivity to wind speed.« less

  1. A Cross-model Comparison of Global Long-term Technology Diffusion under a 2?C Climate Change Control Target

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    van der Zwaan, Bob; Rosler, Hilke; Kober, Tom; Aboumahboub, Tino; Calvin, Katherine V.; Gernaat, David; Marangoni, Giacomo; McCollum, David

    2013-11-01

    We investigate the long-term global energy technology diffusion patterns required to reach a stringent climate change target with a maximum average atmospheric temperature increase of 2C. If the anthropogenic temperature increase is to be limited to 2C, total CO2 emissions have to be reduced massively, so as to reach substantial negative values during the second half of the century. Particularly power sector CO2 emissions should become negative from around 2050 onwards according to most models used for this analysis in order to compensate for GHG emissions in other sectors where abatement is more costly. The annual additional capacity deployment intensity (expressed in GW/yr) for solar and wind energy until 2030 needs to be around that recently observed for coal-based power plants, and will have to be several times higher in the period 20302050. Relatively high agreement exists across models in terms of the aggregated low-carbon energy system cost requirements on the supply side until 2050, which amount to about 50 trillion US$.

  2. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandians Published in American Chemical Society's Environmental Science & Technology Analysis, Climate, Energy, Global Climate & Energy, Modeling, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Systems Analysis, Water Security Sandians Published in American Chemical Society's Environmental Science & Technology Electricity use by water service sector and county. Shown are electricity use by (a) large-scale conveyance, (b) groundwater irrigation pumping, (c) surface water irrigation

  3. Integrating Remote Sensing, Field Observations, and Models to Understand Disturbance and Climate Effects on the Carbon Balance of the West Coast U.S., Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beverly E. Law

    2011-10-05

    As an element of NACP research, the proposed investigation is a two pronged approach that derives and evaluates a regional carbon (C) budget for Oregon, Washington, and California. Objectives are (1) Use multiple data sources, including AmeriFlux data, inventories, and multispectral remote sensing data to investigate trends in carbon storage and exchanges of CO2 and water with variation in climate and disturbance history; (2) Develop and apply regional modeling that relies on these multiple data sources to reduce uncertainty in spatial estimates of carbon storage and NEP, and relative contributions of terrestrial ecosystems and anthropogenic emissions to atmospheric CO2 in the region; (3) Model terrestrial carbon processes across the region, using the Biome-BGC terrestrial ecosystem model, and an atmospheric inverse modeling approach to estimate variation in rate and timing of terrestrial uptake and feedbacks to the atmosphere in response to climate and disturbance.

  4. Integrating Remote Sensing, Field Observations, and Models to Understand Disturbance and Climate Effects on the Carbon Balance of the West Coast U.S.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Warren

    2014-07-03

    As an element of NACP research, the proposed investigation is a two pronged approach that derives and evaluates a regional carbon (C) budget for Oregon, Washington, and California. Objectives are (1) Use multiple data sources, including AmeriFlux data, inventories, and multispectral remote sensing data to investigate trends in carbon storage and exchanges of CO2 and water with variation in climate and disturbance history; (2) Develop and apply regional modeling that relies on these multiple data sources to reduce uncertainty in spatial estimates of carbon storage and NEP, and relative contributions of terrestrial ecosystems and anthropogenic emissions to atmospheric CO2 in the region; (3) Model terrestrial carbon processes across the region, using the Biome-BGC terrestrial ecosystem model, and an atmospheric inverse modeling approach to estimate variation in rate and timing of terrestrial uptake and feedbacks to the atmosphere in response to climate and disturbance.

  5. Improved Formulations for Air-Surface Exchanges Related to National Security Needs: Dry Deposition Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Droppo, James G.

    2006-07-01

    The Department of Homeland Security and others rely on results from atmospheric dispersion models for threat evaluation, event management, and post-event analyses. The ability to simulate dry deposition rates is a crucial part of our emergency preparedness capabilities. Deposited materials pose potential hazards from radioactive shine, inhalation, and ingestion pathways. A reliable characterization of these potential exposures is critical for management and mitigation of these hazards. A review of the current status of dry deposition formulations used in these atmospheric dispersion models was conducted. The formulations for dry deposition of particulate materials from am event such as a radiological attack involving a Radiological Detonation Device (RDD) is considered. The results of this effort are applicable to current emergency preparedness capabilities such as are deployed in the Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center (IMAAC), other similar national/regional emergency response systems, and standalone emergency response models. The review concludes that dry deposition formulations need to consider the full range of particle sizes including: 1) the accumulation mode range (0.1 to 1 micron diameter) and its minimum in deposition velocity, 2) smaller particles (less than .01 micron diameter) deposited mainly by molecular diffusion, 3) 10 to 50 micron diameter particles deposited mainly by impaction and gravitational settling, and 4) larger particles (greater than 100 micron diameter) deposited mainly by gravitational settling. The effects of the local turbulence intensity, particle characteristics, and surface element properties must also be addressed in the formulations. Specific areas for improvements in the dry deposition formulations are 1) capability of simulating near-field dry deposition patterns, 2) capability of addressing the full range of potential particle properties, 3) incorporation of particle surface retention/rebound processes, and

  6. Improved Coefficient Calculator for the California Energy Commission 6 Parameter Photovoltaic Module Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dobos, A. P.

    2012-05-01

    This paper describes an improved algorithm for calculating the six parameters required by the California Energy Commission (CEC) photovoltaic (PV) Calculator module model. Rebate applications in California require results from the CEC PV model, and thus depend on an up-to-date database of module characteristics. Currently, adding new modules to the database requires calculating operational coefficients using a general purpose equation solver - a cumbersome process for the 300+ modules added on average every month. The combination of empirical regressions and heuristic methods presented herein achieve automated convergence for 99.87% of the 5487 modules in the CEC database and greatly enhance the accuracy and efficiency by which new modules can be characterized and approved for use. The added robustness also permits general purpose use of the CEC/6 parameter module model by modelers and system analysts when standard module specifications are known, even if the module does not exist in a preprocessed database.

  7. Variation in proton-induced upsets rates from large solar flares using an improved SEU model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Normand, E. ); Stapor, W.J. )

    1990-12-01

    Proton integral flux measurements during solar energetic particle (SEP) events, from the CPME instrument onboard the IMP-8 satellite, and the proton detector on the GOES-7 satellite, were utilized to calculate proton-induced SEU. An improved two-parameter SEU cross section model was used for three RAM devices. The log of the 239 actual RAM upsets on the TDRS-1 satellite during the Oct. 19, 1989 SEP event allowed a comparison between the recorded number of upset/chip per day, and those predicted based on the GOES-7 data, the 2-parameter model and the shielding distribution curve.

  8. An improved simple polarisable water model for use in biomolecular simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bachmann, Stephan J.; Gunsteren, Wilfred F. van

    2014-12-14

    The accuracy of biomolecular simulations depends to some degree on the accuracy of the water model used to solvate the biomolecules. Because many biomolecules such as proteins are electrostatically rather inhomogeneous, containing apolar, polar, and charged moieties or side chains, a water model should be able to represent the polarisation response to a local electrostatic field, while being compatible with the force field used to model the biomolecules or protein. The two polarisable water models, COS/G2 and COS/D, that are compatible with the GROMOS biomolecular force fields leave room for improvement. The COS/G2 model has a slightly too large dielectric permittivity and the COS/D model displays a much too slow dynamics. The proposed COS/D2 model has four interaction sites: only one Lennard-Jones interaction site, the oxygen atom, and three permanent charge sites, the two hydrogens, and one massless off-atom site that also serves as charge-on-spring (COS) polarisable site with a damped or sub-linear dependence of the induced dipole on the electric field strength for large values of the latter. These properties make it a cheap and yet realistic water model for biomolecular solvation.

  9. Improved electron collisional line broadening for low-temperature ions and neutrals in plasma modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johns, H. M.; Kilcrease, D. P.; Colgan, J.; Judge, E. J.; Barefield II, J. E.; Wiens, R. C.; Clegg, S. M.

    2015-09-29

    In this study, electron collisional broadening of observed spectral lines depends on plasma electron temperature and density. Including this effect in models of measured spectra is necessary to determine plasma conditions; however, computational limits make accurate line broadening treatments difficult to implement in large-scale plasma modeling efforts. In this paper, we report on improvements to the treatment of electron collisional line broadening and illustrate this with calculations using the Los Alamos ATOMIC code. We implement the Dimitrijevic and Konjevic modified semi-empirical model Dimitrijevic and Konjevic (1986 Astron. and Astrophy. 163 297 and 1987 Astron. Astrophys. 172 345), which we amend by employing oscillator strengths from Hartree–Fock calculations. This line broadening model applies to near-neutral plasmas with electron temperatures of Te ~ 1 eV and electron densities of Ne ~1017 cm-3. We evaluate the D.K.-inspired model against the previous hydrogenic approach in ATOMIC through comparison to NIST-rated measurements for selected neutral and singly-ionized Ca, O, Fe, and Sn lines using both fine-structure and configuration-averaged oscillator strengths. The new D.K.-inspired model is significantly more accurate than the previous hydrogenic model and we find the use of configuration-averaged oscillator strengths a good approximation for applications such as LIBS (laser induced breakdown spectroscopy), for which we demonstrate the use of the D.K.-inspired model.

  10. Improved electron collisional line broadening for low-temperature ions and neutrals in plasma modeling

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Johns, H. M.; Kilcrease, D. P.; Colgan, J.; Judge, E. J.; Barefield II, J. E.; Wiens, R. C.; Clegg, S. M.

    2015-09-29

    In this study, electron collisional broadening of observed spectral lines depends on plasma electron temperature and density. Including this effect in models of measured spectra is necessary to determine plasma conditions; however, computational limits make accurate line broadening treatments difficult to implement in large-scale plasma modeling efforts. In this paper, we report on improvements to the treatment of electron collisional line broadening and illustrate this with calculations using the Los Alamos ATOMIC code. We implement the Dimitrijevic and Konjevic modified semi-empirical model Dimitrijevic and Konjevic (1986 Astron. and Astrophy. 163 297 and 1987 Astron. Astrophys. 172 345), which we amendmore » by employing oscillator strengths from Hartree–Fock calculations. This line broadening model applies to near-neutral plasmas with electron temperatures of Te ~ 1 eV and electron densities of Ne ~1017 cm-3. We evaluate the D.K.-inspired model against the previous hydrogenic approach in ATOMIC through comparison to NIST-rated measurements for selected neutral and singly-ionized Ca, O, Fe, and Sn lines using both fine-structure and configuration-averaged oscillator strengths. The new D.K.-inspired model is significantly more accurate than the previous hydrogenic model and we find the use of configuration-averaged oscillator strengths a good approximation for applications such as LIBS (laser induced breakdown spectroscopy), for which we demonstrate the use of the D.K.-inspired model.« less

  11. Global climate feedbacks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Manowitz, B.

    1990-10-01

    The important physical, chemical, and biological events that affect global climate change occur on a mesoscale -- requiring high spatial resolution for their analysis. The Department of Energy has formulated two major initiatives under the US Global Change Program: ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurements), and CHAMMP (Computer Hardware Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics). ARM is designed to use ground and air-craft based observations to document profiles of atmospheric composition, clouds, and radiative fluxes. With research and models of important physical processes, ARM will delineate the relationships between trace gases, aerosol and cloud structure, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, and will improve the parameterization of global circulation models. The present GCMs do not model important feedbacks, including those from clouds, oceans, and land processes. The purpose of this workshop is to identify such potential feedbacks, to evaluate the uncertainties in the feedback processes (and, if possible, to parameterize the feedback processes so that they can be treated in a GCM), and to recommend research programs that will reduce the uncertainties in important feedback processes. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases.

  12. Improving Well Productivity Based Modeling with the Incorporation of Geologic Dependencies

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Improving Well Productivity Based Modeling with the Incorporation of Geologic Dependencies Troy Cook and Dana Van Wagener October 14, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy Information Administration. WORKING PAPER SERIES October 2014 Tony

  13. Improved Geothermometry Through Multivariate Reaction Path Modeling and Evaluation of Geomicrobiological Influences on Geochemical Temperature Indicators

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improved Geothermometry Through Multivariate Reaction Path Modeling and Evaluation of Geomicrobiological Influences on Geochemical Temperature Indicators Project Officer: Eric Hass Total Project Funding: $999,000 April 24, 2013 Craig Cooper Larry Hull Idaho National Laboratory This presentation does not contain any proprietary confidential, or otherwise restricted information. 2 | US DOE Geothermal Program eere.energy.gov Relevance/Impact of Research Geothermometry enables estimation of

  14. Incorporating Single-nucleotide Polymorphisms Into the Lyman Model to Improve Prediction of Radiation Pneumonitis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tucker, Susan L., E-mail: sltucker@mdanderson.org [Department of Bioinformatics and Computational Biology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Li Minghuan [Department of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital, Jinan, Shandong (China)] [Department of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital, Jinan, Shandong (China); Xu Ting; Gomez, Daniel [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)] [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Yuan Xianglin [Department of Oncology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan (China)] [Department of Oncology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan (China); Yu Jinming [Department of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital, Jinan, Shandong (China)] [Department of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital, Jinan, Shandong (China); Liu Zhensheng; Yin Ming; Guan Xiaoxiang; Wang Lie; Wei Qingyi [Department of Epidemiology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)] [Department of Epidemiology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Mohan, Radhe [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)] [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Vinogradskiy, Yevgeniy [University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado (United States)] [University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado (United States); Martel, Mary [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)] [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Liao Zhongxing [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)] [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To determine whether single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes associated with DNA repair, cell cycle, transforming growth factor-{beta}, tumor necrosis factor and receptor, folic acid metabolism, and angiogenesis can significantly improve the fit of the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) model of radiation pneumonitis (RP) risk among patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods and Materials: Sixteen SNPs from 10 different genes (XRCC1, XRCC3, APEX1, MDM2, TGF{beta}, TNF{alpha}, TNFR, MTHFR, MTRR, and VEGF) were genotyped in 141 NSCLC patients treated with definitive radiation therapy, with or without chemotherapy. The LKB model was used to estimate the risk of severe (grade {>=}3) RP as a function of mean lung dose (MLD), with SNPs and patient smoking status incorporated into the model as dose-modifying factors. Multivariate analyses were performed by adding significant factors to the MLD model in a forward stepwise procedure, with significance assessed using the likelihood-ratio test. Bootstrap analyses were used to assess the reproducibility of results under variations in the data. Results: Five SNPs were selected for inclusion in the multivariate NTCP model based on MLD alone. SNPs associated with an increased risk of severe RP were in genes for TGF{beta}, VEGF, TNF{alpha}, XRCC1 and APEX1. With smoking status included in the multivariate model, the SNPs significantly associated with increased risk of RP were in genes for TGF{beta}, VEGF, and XRCC3. Bootstrap analyses selected a median of 4 SNPs per model fit, with the 6 genes listed above selected most often. Conclusions: This study provides evidence that SNPs can significantly improve the predictive ability of the Lyman MLD model. With a small number of SNPs, it was possible to distinguish cohorts with >50% risk vs <10% risk of RP when they were exposed to high MLDs.

  15. Data Quality Assessment and Control for the ARM Climate Research Facility

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peppler, R

    2012-06-26

    The mission of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility is to provide observations of the earth climate system to the climate research community for the purpose of improving the understanding and representation, in climate and earth system models, of clouds and aerosols as well as their coupling with the Earth's surface. In order for ARM measurements to be useful toward this goal, it is important that the measurements are of a known and reasonable quality. The ARM data quality program includes several components designed to identify quality issues in near-real-time, track problems to solutions, assess more subtle long-term issues, and communicate problems to the user community.

  16. Building America Best Practices Series: Volume 5; Builders and Buyers Handbook for Improving New Home Efficiency, Comfort, and Durability in the Marine Climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2006-10-01

    This best practices guide is part of a series produced by Building America. The guide book is a resource to help builders large and small build high-quality, energy-efficient homes that achieve 30% energy savings in the Marine climate region.

  17. Building America Best Practices Series: Volume 1; Builders and Buyers Handbook for Improving New Home Efficiency, Comfort, and Durability in the Hot and Humid Climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2004-12-01

    This Building America Best Practices guide book is a resource to help builders large and small build high-quality, energy-efficient homes that achieve 30% energy savings in space conditioning and water heating in the hot and humid climate.

  18. Utilizing The US Climate Resilience Toolkit

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit provides scientific tools, information, and expertise to help professionals manage their climate-related risks and opportunities, and improve their resilience to extreme events.

  19. Improved evidence-based genome-scale metabolic models for maize leaf, embryo, and endosperm

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seaver, Samuel M.D.; Bradbury, Louis M.T.; Frelin, Océane; Zarecki, Raphy; Ruppin, Eytan; Hanson, Andrew D.; Henry, Christopher S.

    2015-03-10

    There is a growing demand for genome-scale metabolic reconstructions for plants, fueled by the need to understand the metabolic basis of crop yield and by progress in genome and transcriptome sequencing. Methods are also required to enable the interpretation of plant transcriptome data to study how cellular metabolic activity varies under different growth conditions or even within different organs, tissues, and developmental stages. Such methods depend extensively on the accuracy with which genes have been mapped to the biochemical reactions in the plant metabolic pathways. Errors in these mappings lead to metabolic reconstructions with an inflated number of reactions and possible generation of unreliable metabolic phenotype predictions. Here we introduce a new evidence-based genome-scale metabolic reconstruction of maize, with significant improvements in the quality of the gene-reaction associations included within our model. We also present a new approach for applying our model to predict active metabolic genes based on transcriptome data. This method includes a minimal set of reactions associated with low expression genes to enable activity of a maximum number of reactions associated with high expression genes. We apply this method to construct an organ-specific model for the maize leaf, and tissue specific models for maize embryo and endosperm cells. We validate our models using fluxomics data for the endosperm and embryo, demonstrating an improved capacity of our models to fit the available fluxomics data. All models are publicly available via the DOE Systems Biology Knowledgebase and PlantSEED, and our new method is generally applicable for analysis transcript profiles from any plant, paving the way for further in silico studies with a wide variety of plant genomes.

  20. Improved evidence-based genome-scale metabolic models for maize leaf, embryo, and endosperm

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Seaver, Samuel M.D.; Bradbury, Louis M.T.; Frelin, Océane; Zarecki, Raphy; Ruppin, Eytan; Hanson, Andrew D.; Henry, Christopher S.

    2015-03-10

    There is a growing demand for genome-scale metabolic reconstructions for plants, fueled by the need to understand the metabolic basis of crop yield and by progress in genome and transcriptome sequencing. Methods are also required to enable the interpretation of plant transcriptome data to study how cellular metabolic activity varies under different growth conditions or even within different organs, tissues, and developmental stages. Such methods depend extensively on the accuracy with which genes have been mapped to the biochemical reactions in the plant metabolic pathways. Errors in these mappings lead to metabolic reconstructions with an inflated number of reactions andmore » possible generation of unreliable metabolic phenotype predictions. Here we introduce a new evidence-based genome-scale metabolic reconstruction of maize, with significant improvements in the quality of the gene-reaction associations included within our model. We also present a new approach for applying our model to predict active metabolic genes based on transcriptome data. This method includes a minimal set of reactions associated with low expression genes to enable activity of a maximum number of reactions associated with high expression genes. We apply this method to construct an organ-specific model for the maize leaf, and tissue specific models for maize embryo and endosperm cells. We validate our models using fluxomics data for the endosperm and embryo, demonstrating an improved capacity of our models to fit the available fluxomics data. All models are publicly available via the DOE Systems Biology Knowledgebase and PlantSEED, and our new method is generally applicable for analysis transcript profiles from any plant, paving the way for further in silico studies with a wide variety of plant genomes.« less

  1. Northeast Climate Science Center: Transposing Extreme Rainfall to Assess Climate Vulnerability

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Climate models predict significant increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfalls.  However, climate model projections of precipitation vary greatly across models.  For communities...

  2. Towards a Fine-Resolution Global Coupled Climate System for Prediction...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    58 GEOSCIENCES climate, numerical modeling, earth system model, ocean, sea-ice, mesoscale eddies climate, numerical modeling, earth system model, ocean, sea-ice, mesoscale...

  3. Utilizing CLASIC observations and multiscale models to study the impact of improved Land surface representation on modeling cloud- convection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Niyogi, Devdutta S.

    2013-06-07

    The CLASIC experiment was conducted over the US southern great plains (SGP) in June 2007 with an objective to lead an enhanced understanding of the cumulus convection particularly as it relates to land surface conditions. This project was design to help assist with understanding the overall improvement of land atmosphere convection initiation representation of which is important for global and regional models. The study helped address one of the critical documented deficiency in the models central to the ARM objectives for cumulus convection initiation and particularly under summer time conditions. This project was guided by the scientific question building on the CLASIC theme questions: What is the effect of improved land surface representation on the ability of coupled models to simulate cumulus and convection initiation? The focus was on the US Southern Great Plains region. Since the CLASIC period was anomalously wet the strategy has been to use other periods and domains to develop the comparative assessment for the CLASIC data period, and to understand the mechanisms of the anomalous wet conditions on the tropical systems and convection over land. The data periods include the IHOP 2002 field experiment that was over roughly same domain as the CLASIC in the SGP, and some of the DOE funded Ameriflux datasets.

  4. Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility (ACRF) Annual Report 2008

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    LR Roeder

    2008-12-01

    The Importance of Clouds and Radiation for Climate Change: The Earth’s surface temperature is determined by the balance between incoming solar radiation and thermal (or infrared) radiation emitted by the Earth back to space. Changes in atmospheric composition, including greenhouse gases, clouds, and aerosols, can alter this balance and produce significant climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tool for quantifying future climate change; however, there remain significant uncertainties in the GCM treatment of clouds, aerosol, and their effects on the Earth’s energy balance. In 1989, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science created the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program to address scientific uncertainties related to global climate change, with a specific focus on the crucial role of clouds and their influence on the transfer of radiation in the atmosphere. To reduce these scientific uncertainties, the ARM Program uses a unique twopronged approach: • The ARM Climate Research Facility, a scientific user facility for obtaining long-term measurements of radiative fluxes, cloud and aerosol properties, and related atmospheric characteristics in diverse climate regimes; and • The ARM Science Program, focused on the analysis of ACRF and other data to address climate science issues associated with clouds, aerosols, and radiation, and to improve GCMs. This report provides an overview of each of these components and a sample of achievements for each in fiscal year (FY) 2008.

  5. Climate Change: The Physical Basis and Latest Results

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2011-10-06

    The 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes: "Warming in the climate system is unequivocal." Without the contribution of Physics to climate science over many decades, such a statement would not have been possible. Experimental physics enables us to read climate archives such as polar ice cores and so provides the context for the current changes. For example, today the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, the second most important greenhouse gas, is 28% higher than any time during the last 800,000 years. Classical fluid mechanics and numerical mathematics are the basis of climate models from which estimates of future climate change are obtained. But major instabilities and surprises in the Earth System are still unknown. These are also to be considered when the climatic consequences of proposals for geo-engineering are estimated. Only Physics will permit us to further improve our understanding in order to provide the foundation for policy decisions facing the global climate change challenge.

  6. Framework for Probabilistic Projections of Energy-Relevant Streamflow Indicators under Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wagener, Thorsten; Mann, Michael; Crane, Robert

    2014-04-29

    This project focuses on uncertainty in streamflow forecasting under climate change conditions. The objective is to develop easy to use methodologies that can be applied across a range of river basins to estimate changes in water availability for realistic projections of climate change. There are three major components to the project: Empirical downscaling of regional climate change projections from a range of Global Climate Models; Developing a methodology to use present day information on the climate controls on the parameterizations in streamflow models to adjust the parameterizations under future climate conditions (a trading-space-for-time approach); and Demonstrating a bottom-up approach to establishing streamflow vulnerabilities to climate change. The results reinforce the need for downscaling of climate data for regional applications, and further demonstrates the challenges of using raw GCM data to make local projections. In addition, it reinforces the need to make projections across a range of global climate models. The project demonstrates the potential for improving streamflow forecasts by using model parameters that are adjusted for future climate conditions, but suggests that even with improved streamflow models and reduced climate uncertainty through the use of downscaled data, there is still large uncertainty is the streamflow projections. The most useful output from the project is the bottom-up vulnerability driven approach to examining possible climate and land use change impacts on streamflow. Here, we demonstrate an inexpensive and easy to apply methodology that uses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to define the climate and environmental parameters space that can produce vulnerabilities in the system, and then feeds in the downscaled projections to determine the probability top transitioning to a vulnerable sate. Vulnerabilities, in this case, are defined by the end user.

  7. Connecting Organic Aerosol Climate-Relevant Properties to Chemical Mechanisms of Sources and Processing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thornton, Joel

    2015-01-26

    The research conducted on this project aimed to improve our understanding of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation in the atmosphere, and how the properties of the SOA impact climate through its size, phase state, and optical properties. The goal of this project was to demonstrate that the use of molecular composition information to mechanistically connect source apportionment and climate properties can improve the physical basis for simulation of SOA formation and properties in climate models. The research involved developing and improving methods to provide online measurements of the molecular composition of SOA under atmospherically relevant conditions and to apply this technology to controlled simulation chamber experiments and field measurements. The science we have completed with the methodology will impact the simulation of aerosol particles in climate models.

  8. Improved blade profile loss and deviation angle models for advanced transonic compressor bladings. Part 2: A model for supersonic flow

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koenig, W.M.; Hennecke, D.K.; Fottner, L.

    1996-01-01

    New blading concepts as used in modern transonic axial-flow compressors require improved loss and deviation angle correlations. The new model presented in this paper incorporates several elements and treats blade-row flows having subsonic and supersonic inlet conditions separately. The second part of the present report focuses on the extension of a well-known correlation for cascade losses at supersonic inlet flows. It was originally established for DCA bladings and is now modified to reflect the flow situation in blade rows having low-cambered, arbitrarily designed blades including precompression blades. Finally, the steady loss increase from subsonic to supersonic inlet-flow velocities demonstrates the matched performance of the different correlations of the new model.

  9. Quaternary history of the northeastern Bighorn Basin based on a climatically-controlled process-response model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Birdseye, R.U.

    1985-01-01

    The highest surfaces and oldest Pleistocene sediments in the northeastern Bighorn Basin are associated with the 600 kya North Kane Ash. Subsequent climatically-induced periods of aggradation and incision produced the remaining geomorphic elements. Processes associated with a typical interglacial-glacial cycle include: (1) interglacial stability with Bighorn River alluviation, pedimentation, and eolian deposition; (2) late-interglacial to early-glacial incision; (3) alluvial fan extension and increased landslide development during glacial intervals; and (4) an early-interglacial return to more stable conditions. Frequent stream captures during interglacial times were caused by the out-of-phase relationships between the Bighorn River and its tributaries. Quaternary climates of a given type have not been of equal magnitude or duration in the northeastern Bighorn Basin. The most intense glacial climates from which sediments are preserved are believed to have occurred ca. 600 kya, 440 kya an d140 kya. An abnormally dry climate existed between 400 kya and 275 kya, while extremely wet interglacial conditions prevailed about 100 kya. The last complete climatic cycle was the Bull Lake. The subsequent Holocene interglacial has been unusually dry. Thus not all Pleistocene climates have been capable of generating terraces of extensive alluvial fans.

  10. Climate Change

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Energy Department is fighting climate change with research, clean fossil energy technology, domestic renewable energy development and more energy efficient appliances, homes, businesses and vehicles.

  11. Introducing improved structural properties and salt dependence into a coarse-grained model of DNA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Snodin, Benedict E. K. Mosayebi, Majid; Schreck, John S.; Romano, Flavio; Doye, Jonathan P. K.; Randisi, Ferdinando; ulc, Petr; Ouldridge, Thomas E.; Tsukanov, Roman; Nir, Eyal; Louis, Ard A.

    2015-06-21

    We introduce an extended version of oxDNA, a coarse-grained model of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) designed to capture the thermodynamic, structural, and mechanical properties of single- and double-stranded DNA. By including explicit major and minor grooves and by slightly modifying the coaxial stacking and backbone-backbone interactions, we improve the ability of the model to treat large (kilobase-pair) structures, such as DNA origami, which are sensitive to these geometric features. Further, we extend the model, which was previously parameterised to just one salt concentration ([Na{sup +}] = 0.5M), so that it can be used for a range of salt concentrations including those corresponding to physiological conditions. Finally, we use new experimental data to parameterise the oxDNA potential so that consecutive adenine bases stack with a different strength to consecutive thymine bases, a feature which allows a more accurate treatment of systems where the flexibility of single-stranded regions is important. We illustrate the new possibilities opened up by the updated model, oxDNA2, by presenting results from simulations of the structure of large DNA objects and by using the model to investigate some salt-dependent properties of DNA.

  12. A New Approach to Modeling Aerosol Effects on East Asian Climate: Parametric Uncertainties Associated with Emissions, Cloud Microphysics and their Interactions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yan, Huiping; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun; Wang, Hailong; Wang, Minghuai; Yang, Ben; Liu, Xiaohong; Fu, Qiang

    2015-09-16

    In this study, we adopt a parametric sensitivity analysis framework that integrates the quasi-Monte Carlo parameter sampling approach and a surrogate model to examine aerosol effects on the East Asian Monsoon climate simulated in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5). A total number of 256 CAM5 simulations are conducted to quantify the model responses to the uncertain parameters associated with cloud microphysics parameterizations and aerosol (e.g., sulfate, black carbon (BC), and dust) emission factors and their interactions. Results show that the interaction terms among parameters are important for quantifying the sensitivity of fields of interest, especially precipitation, to the parameters. The relative importance of cloud-microphysics parameters and emission factors (strength) depends on evaluation metrics or the model fields we focused on, and the presence of uncertainty in cloud microphysics imposes an additional challenge in quantifying the impact of aerosols on cloud and climate. Due to their different optical and microphysical properties and spatial distributions, sulfate, BC, and dust aerosols have very different impacts on East Asian Monsoon through aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions. The climatic effects of aerosol do not always have a monotonic response to the change of emission factors. The spatial patterns of both sign and magnitude of aerosol-induced changes in radiative fluxes, cloud, and precipitation could be different, depending on the aerosol types, when parameters are sampled in different ranges of values. We also identify the different cloud microphysical parameters that show the most significant impact on climatic effect induced by sulfate, BC and dust, respectively, in East Asia.

  13. Comparison of the Vertical Velocity Used to Calculate the Cloud Droplet Number Concentration in a Cloud Resolving and a Global Climate Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Comparison of the Vertical Velocity used to Calculate the Cloud Droplet Number Concentration in a Cloud-Resolving and a Global Climate Model H. Guo, J. E. Penner, M. Herzog, and X. Liu Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Michigan Introduction Anthropogenic aerosols are effective cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The availability of CCN affects the initial cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) and droplet size; therefore, cloud optical

  14. Improvement of Moist and Radiative Processes in Highly Parallel Atmospheric General Circulation Models: Validation and Development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Frank, William M.; Hack, James J.; Kiehl, Jeffrey T.

    1997-02-24

    of cloud radiative properties. An examination of the CCM2 simulation characteristics indicated that many surface temperature and warm land precipitation problems were linked to deficiencies in the specification of cloud optical properties, which allowed too much shortwave radiation to reach the surface. In-cloud liquid water path was statically specified in the CCM2 using a "prescribed, meridionally and height varying, but time independent, cloud liquid water density profile, which was analytically determined from a meridionally specified liquid water scale height. Single-column model integrations were conducted to explore alternative formulations for the cloud liquid water path diagnostic, converging on an approach that employs a similar, but state-dependent technique for determining in-cloud liquid water concentration. The new formulation, results in significant improvements to both the top-of- atmosphere and surface energy budgets. In particular, when this scheme is incorporated in the three-dimensional GCM, simulated July surface temperature biases are substantially reduced, where summer precipitation over the northern hemisphere continents, as well as precipitation rates over most all warm land areas, is more consistent with observations". This improved parameterization has been incorporated in the CCM3.

  15. Simulation of ratcheting in straight pipes using ANSYS with an improved cyclic plasticity model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hassan, T.; Zhu, Y.; Matzen, V.C.

    1996-12-01

    Ratcheting has been shown to be a contributing cause of failure in several seismic experiments on piping components and systems. Most commercial finite element codes have been unable to simulate the ratcheting in those tests accurately. The reason for this can be traced to inadequate plasticity constitutive models in the analysis codes. The authors have incorporated an improved cyclic plasticity model, based on an Armstrong-Frederick kinematic hardening rule in conjunction with the Drucker-Palgen plastic modulus equation, into an ANSYS user subroutine. This modified analysis code has been able to simulate quite accurately the ratcheting behavior of a tube subjected to a constant internal pressure and axially strain controlled cycling. This paper describes simulations obtained form this modified ANSYS code for two additional tests: (1) a tube subjected to constant axial stress and prescribed torsional cycling, and (2) a straight pipe subjected to constant internal pressure and quasi-static cyclic bending. The analysis results from the modified ANSYS code are compared to the experimental data, as well as results from ABAQUS and the original ANSYS code. The resulting correlation shows a significant improvement over the original ANSYS and the ABAQUS codes.

  16. A model for improving microbial biofuel production using a synthetic feedback loop

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dunlop, Mary; Keasling, Jay; Mukhopadhyay, Aindrila

    2011-07-14

    Cells use feedback to implement a diverse range of regulatory functions. Building synthetic feedback control systems may yield insight into the roles that feedback can play in regulation since it can be introduced independently of native regulation, and alternative control architectures can be compared. We propose a model for microbial biofuel production where a synthetic control system is used to increase cell viability and biofuel yields. Although microbes can be engineered to produce biofuels, the fuels are often toxic to cell growth, creating a negative feedback loop that limits biofuel production. These toxic effects may be mitigated by expressing efflux pumps that export biofuel from the cell. We developed a model for cell growth and biofuel production and used it to compare several genetic control strategies for their ability to improve biofuel yields. We show that controlling efflux pump expression directly with a biofuel-responsive promoter is a straight forward way of improving biofuel production. In addition, a feed forward loop controller is shown to be versatile at dealing with uncertainty in biofuel production rates.

  17. Improved Scheme for Modeling Mass Transfer between Fracture and Matrix Continua with Particle Tracking Method

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    L. Pan; Y. Seol; G. Bodvarsson

    2004-04-29

    The dual-continuum random-walk particle tracking approach is an attractive simulation method for simulating transport in a fractured porous medium. In order to be truly successful for such a model, however, the key issue is to properly simulate the mass transfer between the fracture and matrix continua. In a recent paper, Pan and Bodvarsson (2002) proposed an improved scheme for simulating fracture-matrix mass transfer, by introducing the concept of activity range into the calculation of fracture-matrix particle-transfer probability. By comparing with analytical solutions, they showed that their scheme successfully captured the transient diffusion depth into the matrix without any additional subgrid (matrix) cells. This technical note presents an expansion of their scheme to cases in which significant water flow through the fracture-matrix interface exists. The dual-continuum particle tracker with this new scheme was found to be as accurate as a numerical model using a more detailed grid. The improved scheme can be readily incorporated into the existing particle-tracking code, while still maintaining the advantage of needing no additional matrix cells to capture transient features of particle penetration into the matrix.

  18. Borders as membranes :metaphors and models for improved policy in border regions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Malczynski, Leonard A.; Passell, Howard David; Forster, Craig B.; Cockerill, Kristan

    2005-10-01

    Political borders are controversial and contested spaces. In an attempt to better understand movement along and through political borders, this project applied the metaphor of a membrane to look at how people, ideas, and things ''move'' through a border. More specifically, the research team employed this metaphor in a system dynamics framework to construct a computer model to assess legal and illegal migration on the US-Mexico border. Employing a metaphor can be helpful, as it was in this project, to gain different perspectives on a complex system. In addition to the metaphor, the multidisciplinary team utilized an array of methods to gather data including traditional literature searches, an experts workshop, a focus group, interviews, and culling expertise from the individuals on the research team. Results from the qualitative efforts revealed strong social as well as economic drivers that motivate individuals to cross the border legally. Based on the information gathered, the team concluded that legal migration dynamics were of a scope we did not want to consider hence, available demographic models sufficiently capture migration at the local level. Results from both the quantitative and qualitative data searches were used to modify a 1977 border model to demonstrate the dynamic nature of illegal migration. Model runs reveal that current US-policies based on neo-classic economic theory have proven ineffective in curbing illegal migration, and that proposed enforcement policies are also likely to be ineffective. We suggest, based on model results, that improvement in economic conditions within Mexico may have the biggest impact on illegal migration to the U.S. The modeling also supports the views expressed in the current literature suggesting that demographic and economic changes within Mexico are likely to slow illegal migration by 2060 with no special interventions made by either government.

  19. DOE Science Showcase - Featured Climate Change Research from...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Climate Change Information Bridge Energy Citations Database DOE R&D Accomplishments Database DOE Data Explorer Climate Modeling Information Bridge Energy Citations Database DOE R&D ...

  20. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2 Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2 ...

  1. Climate Leaders Management | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Leaders Fund (CLF) is an investment vehicle in the climate change arena. CLF will invest in the massive infrastructure and manufacturing improvements. Coordinates: 42.74962,...

  2. Upper Rio Grande Simulation Model (URGSiM)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable ... Arctic Climate Measurements Global Climate Models Software Sustainable Subsurface ...

  3. Response of precipitation extremes to idealized global warming in an aqua-planet climate model: Towards robust projection across different horizontal resolutions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, F.; Collins, W.D.; Wehner, M.F.; Williamson, D.L.; Olson, J.G.

    2011-04-15

    Current climate models produce quite heterogeneous projections for the responses of precipitation extremes to future climate change. To help understand the range of projections from multimodel ensembles, a series of idealized 'aquaplanet' Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) runs have been performed with the Community Atmosphere Model CAM3. These runs have been analysed to identify the effects of horizontal resolution on precipitation extreme projections under two simple global warming scenarios. We adopt the aquaplanet framework for our simulations to remove any sensitivity to the spatial resolution of external inputs and to focus on the roles of model physics and dynamics. Results show that a uniform increase of sea surface temperature (SST) and an increase of low-to-high latitude SST gradient both lead to increase of precipitation and precipitation extremes for most latitudes. The perturbed SSTs generally have stronger impacts on precipitation extremes than on mean precipitation. Horizontal model resolution strongly affects the global warming signals in the extreme precipitation in tropical and subtropical regions but not in high latitude regions. This study illustrates that the effects of horizontal resolution have to be taken into account to develop more robust projections of precipitation extremes.

  4. NREL Reduces Climate Control Loads in Electric Vehicles (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2014-08-01

    NREL demonstrates that zonal climate control can reduce air conditioning power and improve range while maintaining driver thermal sensation.

  5. Depositional sequence analysis and sedimentologic modeling for improved prediction of Pennsylvanian reservoirs (Annex 1)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Watney, W.L.

    1992-01-01

    Interdisciplinary studies of the Upper Pennsylvanian Lansing and Kansas City groups have been undertaken in order to improve the geologic characterization of petroleum reservoirs and to develop a quantitative understanding of the processes responsible for formation of associated depositional sequences. To this end, concepts and methods of sequence stratigraphy are being used to define and interpret the three-dimensional depositional framework of the Kansas City Group. The investigation includes characterization of reservoir rocks in oil fields in western Kansas, description of analog equivalents in near-surface and surface sites in southeastern Kansas, and construction of regional structural and stratigraphic framework to link the site specific studies. Geologic inverse and simulation models are being developed to integrate quantitative estimates of controls on sedimentation to produce reconstructions of reservoir-bearing strata in an attempt to enhance our ability to predict reservoir characteristics.

  6. Climate Zones

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Building America determines building practices based on climate zones to achieve the most energy savings in a home. This page offers some general guidelines on the definitions of the various...

  7. Guides and Case Studies for Marine Climates | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Marine Climates Guides and Case Studies for Marine Climates Map of the Marine Climate Zone of the United States. This zone contains the far western Pacific coast stretching from the Canadian border to mid-California. The Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a series of best practices and case studies to help builders improve whole-house energy performance in buildings found in marine climates. Best Practice Guides 40% Whole-House Energy Savings in Marine Climate - Volume 11 Optimized Climate

  8. Development Status of the PEBBLES Code for Pebble Mechanics: Improved Physical Models and Speed-up

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Joshua J. Cogliati; Abderrafi M. Ougouag

    2009-12-01

    PEBBLES is a code for simulating the motion of all the pebbles in a pebble bed reactor. Since pebble bed reactors are packed randomly and not precisely placed, the location of the fuel elements in the reactor is not deterministically known. Instead, when determining operating parameters the motion of the pebbles can be simulated and stochastic locations can be found. The PEBBLES code can output information relevant for other simulations of the pebble bed reactors such as the positions of the pebbles in the reactor, packing fraction change in an earthquake, and velocity profiles created by recirculation. The goal for this level three milestone was to speedup the PEBBLES code through implementation on massively parallel computer. Work on this goal has resulted in speeding up both the single processor version and creation of a new parallel version of PEBBLES. Both the single processor version and the parallel running capability of the PEBBLES code have improved since the fiscal year start. The hybrid MPI/OpenMP PEBBLES version was created this year to run on the increasingly common cluster hardware profile that combines nodes with multiple processors that share memory and a cluster of nodes that are networked together. The OpenMP portions use the Open Multi-Processing shared memory parallel processing model to split the task across processors in a single node that shares memory. The Message Passing Interface (MPI) portion uses messages to communicate between different nodes over a network. The following are wall clock speed up for simulating an NGNP-600 sized reactor. The single processor version runs 1.5 times faster compared to the single processor version at the beginning of the fiscal year. This speedup is primarily due to the improved static friction model described in the report. When running on 64 processors, the new MPI/OpenMP hybrid version has a wall clock speed up of 22 times compared to the current single processor version. When using 88 processors, a

  9. Development Status of the PEBBLES Code for Pebble Mechanics: Improved Physical Models and Speed-up

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Joshua J. Cogliati; Abderrafi M. Ougouag

    2009-09-01

    PEBBLES is a code for simulating the motion of all the pebbles in a pebble bed reactor. Since pebble bed reactors are packed randomly and not precisely placed, the location of the fuel elements in the reactor is not deterministically known. Instead, when determining operating parameters the motion of the pebbles can be simulated and stochastic locations can be found. The PEBBLES code can output information relevant for other simulations of the pebble bed reactors such as the positions of the pebbles in the reactor, packing fraction change in an earthquake, and velocity profiles created by recirculation. The goal for this level three milestone was to speedup the PEBBLES code through implementation on massively parallel computer. Work on this goal has resulted in speeding up both the single processor version and creation of a new parallel version of PEBBLES. Both the single processor version and the parallel running capability of the PEBBLES code have improved since the fiscal year start. The hybrid MPI/OpenMP PEBBLES version was created this year to run on the increasingly common cluster hardware profile that combines nodes with multiple processors that share memory and a cluster of nodes that are networked together. The OpenMP portions use the Open Multi-Processing shared memory parallel processing model to split the task across processors in a single node that shares memory. The Message Passing Interface (MPI) portion uses messages to communicate between different nodes over a network. The following are wall clock speed up for simulating an NGNP-600 sized reactor. The single processor version runs 1.5 times faster compared to the single processor version at the beginning of the fiscal year. This speedup is primarily due to the improved static friction model described in the report. When running on 64 processors, the new MPI/OpenMP hybrid version has a wall clock speed up of 22 times compared to the current single processor version. When using 88 processors, a

  10. Investigating the Nexus of Climate, Energy, Water, and Land at Decision-Relevant Scales: The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kraucunas, Ian P.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dirks, James A.; Hathaway, John E.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Huang, Maoyi; Jin, Chunlian; Kintner-Meyer, Michael C.W.; Kleese van Dam, Kerstin; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Li, Hongyi; Moss, Richard H.; Peterson, Marty J.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.; Thomson, Allison M.; Voisin, Nathalie; West, Tristram O.

    2015-04-01

    The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA) is an innovative modeling system developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to simulate interactions among natural and human systems at scales relevant to regional decision making. PRIMA brings together state-of-the-art models of regional climate, hydrology, agriculture, socioeconomics, and energy systems using a flexible coupling approach. The platform can be customized to inform a variety of complex questions and decisions, such as the integrated evaluation of mitigation and adaptation options across a range of sectors. Research into stakeholder decision support needs underpins the platform's application to regional issues, including uncertainty characterization. Ongoing numerical experiments are yielding new insights into the interactions among human and natural systems on regional scales with an initial focus on the energy-land-water nexus in the upper U.S. Midwest. This paper focuses on PRIMA’s functional capabilities and describes some lessons learned to date about integrated regional modeling.

  11. Geoengineering the Earth's Climate

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Google Tech Talks

    2009-09-01

    Emergency preparedness is generally considered to be a good thing, yet there is no plan regarding what we might do should we be faced with a climate emergency. Such an emergency could take the form of a rapid shift in precipitation patterns, a collapse of the great ice sheets, the imminent triggering of strong climate system feedbacks, or perhaps the loss of valuable ecosystems. Over the past decade, we have used climate models to investigate the potential to reverse some of the effects of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by deflecting some incoming sunlight back to space. This would probably be most cost-effectively achieved with the placement of small particles in or above the stratosphere. Our model simulations indicate that such geoengineering approaches could potentially bring our climate closer to the state is was in prior to the introduction of greenhouse gases. This talk will present much of what is known about such geoengineering approaches, and raise a range of issues likely to stimulate lively discussion. Speaker: Ken Caldeira Ken Caldeira is a scientist at the Carnegie Institution Department of Global Ecology and a Professor (by courtesy) at the Stanford University Department of Environmental and Earth System Sciences. Previously, he worked for 12 years in the Energy and Environment Directorate at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (Department of Energy). His research interests include the numerical simulation of Earth's climate, carbon, and biogeochemistry; ocean acidification; climate emergency response systems; evaluating approaches to supplying environmentally-friendly energy services; ocean carbon sequestration; long-term evolution of climate and geochemical cycles; and marine biogeochemical cycles. Caldeira has a B.A. in Philosophy from Rutgers College and an M.S. and Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from New York University.

  12. PROJECT PROFILE: Improving PV performance Estimates in the System Advisor Model with Component and System Reliability Metrics

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This project will improve the forecasting of lifetime PV system performance as well as operations and maintenance costs by incorporating the Photovoltaic Reliability and Performance Model (PV-RPM) developed by Sandia into the widely-used Solar Advisor Model (SAM) software platform.

  13. Effects of in-situ and reanalysis climate data on estimation of cropland gross primary production using the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jin, Cui; Xiao, Xiangming; Wagle, Pradeep; Griffis, Timothy; Dong, Jinwei; Wu, Chaoyang; Qin, Yuanwei; Cook, David R.

    2015-11-01

    Satellite-based Production Efficiency Models (PEMs) often require meteorological reanalysis data such as the North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as model inputs to simulate Gross Primary Production (GPP) at regional and global scales. This study first evaluated the accuracies of air temperature (TNARR) and downward shortwave radiation (RNARR) of the NARR by comparing with in-situ meteorological measurements at 37 AmeriFlux non-crop eddy flux sites, then used one PEM – the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) to simulate 8-day mean GPP (GPPVPM) at seven AmeriFlux crop sites, and investigated the uncertainties in GPPVPM from climate inputs as compared with eddy covariance-based GPP (GPPEC). Results showed that TNARR agreed well with in-situ measurements; RNARR, however, was positively biased. An empirical linear correction was applied to RNARR, and significantly reduced the relative error of RNARR by ~25% for crop site-years. Overall, GPPVPM calculated from the in-situ (GPPVPM(EC)), original (GPPVPM(NARR)) and adjusted NARR (GPPVPM(adjNARR)) climate data tracked the seasonality of GPPEC well, albeit with different degrees of biases. GPPVPM(EC) showed a good match with GPPEC for maize (Zea mays L.), but was slightly underestimated for soybean (Glycine max L.). Replacing the in-situ climate data with the NARR resulted in a significant overestimation of GPPVPM(NARR) (18.4/29.6% for irrigated/rainfed maize and 12.7/12.5% for irrigated/rainfed soybean). GPPVPM(adjNARR) showed a good agreement with GPPVPM(EC) for both crops due to the reduction in the bias of RNARR. The results imply that the bias of RNARR introduced significant uncertainties into the PEM-based GPP estimates, suggesting that more accurate surface radiation datasets are needed to estimate primary production of terrestrial ecosystems at regional and global scales.

  14. Contributions of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program and the ARM Climate Research Facility to the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    SA Edgerton; LR Roeder

    2008-09-30

    The Earth’s surface temperature is determined by the balance between incoming solar radiation and thermal (or infrared) radiation emitted by the Earth back to space. Changes in atmospheric composition, including greenhouse gases, clouds, and aerosols can alter this balance and produce significant climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tool for quantifying future climate change; however, there remain significant uncertainties in the GCM treatment of clouds, aerosol, and their effects on the Earth’s energy balance. The 2007 assessment (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports a substantial range among GCMs in climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas emissions. The largest contributor to this range lies in how different models handle changes in the way clouds absorb or reflect radiative energy in a changing climate (Solomon et al. 2007). In 1989, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science created the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program within the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) to address scientific uncertainties related to global climate change, with a specific focus on the crucial role of clouds and their influence on the transfer of radiation in the atmosphere. To address this problem, BER has adopted a unique two-pronged approach: * The ARM Climate Research Facility (ACRF), a scientific user facility for obtaining long-term measurements of radiative fluxes, cloud and aerosol properties, and related atmospheric characteristics in diverse climate regimes. * The ARM Science Program, focused on the analysis of ACRF data to address climate science issues associated with clouds, aerosols, and radiation, and to improve GCMs. This report describes accomplishments of the BER ARM Program toward addressing the primary uncertainties related to climate change prediction as identified by the IPCC.

  15. Effect of Terrestrial and Marine Organic Aerosol on Regional and Global Climate: Model Development, Application, and Verification with Satellite Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meskhidze, Nicholas; Zhang, Yang; Kamykowski, Daniel

    2012-03-28

    In this DOE project the improvements to parameterization of marine primary organic matter (POM) emissions, hygroscopic properties of marine POM, marine isoprene derived secondary organic aerosol (SOA) emissions, surfactant effects, new cloud droplet activation parameterization have been implemented into Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 5.0), with a seven mode aerosol module from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)'s Modal Aerosol Model (MAM7). The effects of marine aerosols derived from sea spray and ocean emitted biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) on microphysical properties of clouds were explored by conducting 10 year CAM5.0-MAM7 model simulations at a grid resolution 1.9° by 2.5° with 30 vertical layers. Model-predicted relationship between ocean physical and biological systems and the abundance of CCN in remote marine atmosphere was compared to data from the A-Train satellites (MODIS, CALIPSO, AMSR-E). Model simulations show that on average, primary and secondary organic aerosol emissions from the ocean can yield up to 20% increase in Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) at 0.2% Supersaturation, and up to 5% increases in droplet number concentration of global maritime shallow clouds. Marine organics were treated as internally or externally mixed with sea salt. Changes associated with cloud properties reduced (absolute value) the model-predicted short wave cloud forcing from -1.35 Wm-2 to -0.25 Wm-2. By using different emission scenarios, and droplet activation parameterizations, this study suggests that addition of marine primary aerosols and biologically generated reactive gases makes an important difference in radiative forcing assessments. All baseline and sensitivity simulations for 2001 and 2050 using global-through-urban WRF/Chem (GU-WRF) were completed. The main objective of these simulations was to evaluate the capability of GU-WRF for an accurate representation of the global atmosphere by exploring the most accurate configuration of

  16. Improved volume-averaged model for steady and pulsed-power electronegative discharges

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Sungjin; Lieberman, M. A.; Lichtenberg, A. J.; Gudmundsson, J. T.

    2006-11-15

    An improved volume-averaged global model is developed for a cylindrical (radius R, length L) electronegative (EN) plasma that is applicable over a wide range of electron densities, electronegativities, and pressures. It is applied to steady and pulsed-power oxygen discharges. The model incorporates effective volume and surface loss factors for positive ions, negative ions, and electrons combining three electronegative discharge regimes: a two-region regime with a parabolic EN core surrounded by an electropositive edge, a one-region parabolic EN plasma, and a one-region flat-topped EN plasma, spanning the plasma parameters and gas pressures of interest for low pressure processing (below a few hundred millitorr). Pressure-dependent effective volume and surface loss factors are also used for the neutral species. A set of reaction rate coefficients, updated from previous model calculations, is developed for oxygen for the species O{sub 2}, O{sub 2}({sup 1}{delta}{sub g}), O, O{sub 2}{sup +}, O{sup +}, and O{sup -}, based on the latest published cross-section sets and measurements. The model solutions yield all of the quantities above together with such important processing quantities such as the neutral/ion flux ratio {gamma}{sub O}/{gamma}{sub i}, with the discharge aspect ratio 2R/L and pulsed-power period and duty ratio (pulse on-time/pulse period) as parameters. The steady discharge results are compared to an experiment, giving good agreement. For steady discharges, increasing 2R/L from 1 to 6 leads to a factor of 0.45 reduction in {gamma}{sub O}/{gamma}{sub i}. For pulsed discharges with a fixed duty ratio, {gamma}{sub O}/{gamma}{sub i} is found to have a minimum with respect to pulse period. A 25% duty ratio pulse reduces {gamma}{sub O}/{gamma}{sub i} by a factor of 0.75 compared to the steady-state case.

  17. Climate Change Response

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Addressing the Impact of Climate Change on America's Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources Energy and Climate Change Council DOI Climate Science Centers ...

  18. iRESM INITIATIVE UNDERSTANDING DECISION SUPPORT NEEDS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION --US Midwest Region—

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, Jennie S.; Runci, Paul J.; Moss, Richard H.; Anderson, Kate L.

    2010-10-01

    The impacts of climate change are already affecting human and environmental systems worldwide, yet many uncertainties persist in the prediction of future climate changes and impacts due to limitations in scientific understanding of relevant causal factors. In particular, there is mounting urgency to efforts to improve models of human and environmental systems at the regional scale, and to integrate climate, ecosystem and energy-economic models to support policy, investment, and risk management decisions related to climate change mitigation (i.e., reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (i.e., responding to climate change impacts). The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is developing a modeling framework, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), to address regional human-environmental system interactions in response to climate change and the uncertainties therein. The framework will consist of a suite of integrated models representing regional climate change, regional climate policy, and the regional economy, with a focus on simulating the mitigation and adaptation decisions made over time in the energy, transportation, agriculture, and natural resource management sectors.

  19. Greenland and Antarctic mass balances for present and doubled atmospheric CO{sub 2} from the GENESIS version-2 global climate model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thompson, S.L.; Pollard, D.

    1997-05-01

    As anthropogenic greenhouse warming occurs in the next century, changes in the mass balances of Greenland and Antarctica will probably accelerate and may have significant effects on global sea level. Recent trends and possible future changes in these mass balances have received considerable attention in the glaciological literature, but until recently relatively few general circulation modeling (GCM) studies have focused on the problem. However, there are two significant problems in using GCMs to predict mass balance distributions on ice sheets: (i) the relatively coarse GCM horizontal resolution truncates the topography of the ice-sheet flanks and smaller ice sheets such as Greenland, and (ii) the snow and ice physics in most GCMs does not include ice-sheet-specific processes such as the refreezing of meltwater. Two techniques are described that attack these problems, involving (i) an elevation-based correction to the surface meteorology and (ii) a simple a posteriori correction for the refreezing of meltwater following Pfeiffer et al. Using these techniques in a new version 2 of the Global Environmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems global climate model, the authors present global climate and ice-sheet mass-balance results from two equilibrated runs for present and doubled atmospheric CO{sub 2}. This GCM is well suited for ice-sheet mass-balance studies because (a) the surface can be represented at a finer resolution (2{degrees} lat x 2{degrees} long) than the atmospheric GCM, (b) the two correction techniques are included as part of the model, and the model`s mass balances for present-day Greenland and Antarctica are realistic. 131 refs., 23 figs., 2 tabs.

  20. Delays in Reducing Waterborne and Water-related Infectious Diseases in China under Climate Change

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hodges, Maggie; Belle, Jessica; Carlton, Elizabeth; Liang, Song; Li, Huazhong; Luo, Wei; Freeman, Matthew C.; Liu, Yang; Gao, Yang; Hess, Jeremy; et al

    2014-11-02

    Despite China’s rapid progress improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) infrastructure and access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation, and 401 million people lacked access to household piped water. Infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in climate, particularly temperature, and WSH conditions. To explore possible impacts of climate change on these diseases in China in 2020 and 2030, we coupled estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrheal disease and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models using four emissions pathways, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios and projected demographic changes. By 2030, the projected impacts would delaymore » China’s historically rapid progress toward reducing the burden of WSH-attributable infectious disease by 8-85 months. This developmental delay provides a key summary measure of the impact of climate change in China, and in other societies undergoing rapid social, economic, and environmental change.« less

  1. Delays in Reducing Waterborne and Water-related Infectious Diseases in China under Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodges, Maggie; Belle, Jessica; Carlton, Elizabeth; Liang, Song; Li, Huazhong; Luo, Wei; Freeman, Matthew C.; Liu, Yang; Gao, Yang; Hess, Jeremy; Remais, Justin V.

    2014-11-02

    Despite China’s rapid progress improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) infrastructure and access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation, and 401 million people lacked access to household piped water. Infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in climate, particularly temperature, and WSH conditions. To explore possible impacts of climate change on these diseases in China in 2020 and 2030, we coupled estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrheal disease and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models using four emissions pathways, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios and projected demographic changes. By 2030, the projected impacts would delay China’s historically rapid progress toward reducing the burden of WSH-attributable infectious disease by 8-85 months. This developmental delay provides a key summary measure of the impact of climate change in China, and in other societies undergoing rapid social, economic, and environmental change.

  2. Delays in Reducing Waterborne and Water-related Infectious Diseases in China under Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodges, Maggie; Belle, Jessica; Carlton, Elizabeth; Liang, Song; Li, Huazhong; Luo, Wei; Freeman, Matthew C.; Liu, Yang; Gao, Yang; Hess, Jeremy; Remais, Justin V.

    2014-12-01

    Despite China’s rapid progress improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) infrastructure and access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation, and 401 million people lacked access to household piped water. Infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in climate, particularly temperature, and WSH conditions. To explore possible impacts of climate change on these diseases in China in 2020 and 2030, we coupled estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrheal disease and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models using four emissions pathways, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios and projected demographic changes. By 2030, the projected impacts would delay China’s historically rapid progress toward reducing the burden of WSH-attributable infectious disease by 8-85 months. This developmental delay provides a key summary measure of the impact of climate change in China, and in other societies undergoing rapid social, economic, and environmental change.

  3. Special Lecture - Climate Prisms: Understanding Climate Change...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Special Lecture - Climate Prisms Special Lecture - Climate Prisms: Understanding Climate Change for All WHEN: Feb 17, 2015 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: Bradbury Science Museum, 1350...

  4. Improving LER Coupling and PEP-II Luminosity with Model-Independent...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    The goal of this project was to improve the linear optics of the LER in order to decrease ... ELECTRONS; LUMINOSITY; MAGNETS; OPTICS; POSITRONS; QUADRUPOLES; RESONANCE; ...

  5. Evaluation of Preindustrial to Present-day Black Carbon and its Albedo Forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee, Y. H.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Flanner, M. G.; Jiao, C.; Shindell, Drew; Berntsen, T.; Bisiauxs, M.; Cao, J.; Collins, W. J.; Curran, M.; Edwards, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, Steven J.; Horowitz, L.; McConnell, J.R.; Ming, J.; Myhre, G.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, Vaishali; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R. B.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Thevenon, F.; Xu, B.; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2013-03-05

    As a part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against the observations including 12 ice core records, a long-term surface mass concentrations and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using the NCAR Community Land and Sea-Ice model 4 with prescribed meteorology from 1996-2000, which includes the SNICAR BC-snow model. We evaluated the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations to using recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to the differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology among models; 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However,models agree well on 2.5~3 times increase in the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day, which matches with the 2.5 times increase in BC emissions. We find a large model diversity at both NH and SH high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Jungfrauch and Ispra. However, the models fail to capture the Arctic BC seasonality due tosevere underestimations during winter and spring. Compared to recent snowpack measurements, the simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2-3 of observations except for Greenland and Arctic Ocean. However, model and observation differ widely due to missing interannual variations in emissions and possibly due to the choice of the prescribed meteorology period (i.e., 1996-2000).

  6. Building America Best Practices Series: Volume 2. Builders and Buyers Handbook for Improving New Home Efficiency, Comfort, and Durability in the Hot-Dry and Mixed-Dry Climates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baechler, M. C.; Taylor, Z. T.; Bartlett, R.; Gilbride, T.; Hefty, M.; Love, P. M.

    2005-09-01

    This best practices guide is part of a series produced by Building America. The guidebook is a resource to help builders large and small build high-quality, energy-efficient homes that achieve 30% energy savings in space conditioning and water heating in the hot-dry and mixed-dry climates. The savings are in comparison with the 1993 Model Energy Code. The guide contains chapters for every member of the builder's team—from the manager to the site planner to the designers, site supervisors, the trades, and marketers. There is also a chapter for homeowners on how to use the book to provide help in selecting a new home or builder.

  7. Improvements to the RELAP5/MOD3 reflood model and uncertainty quantification of reflood peak clad temperature

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chung, Bub Dong; Lee, Young Lee; Park, Chan Eok; Lee, Sang Yong

    1996-10-01

    Assessment of the original REAP/N4OD3.1 code against the FLECHT SEASET series of experiments has identified some weaknesses of the reflood model, such as the lack of a quenching temperature model, the shortcoming of the Chen transition boiling model, and the incorrect prediction of droplet size and interfacial heat transfer. Also, high temperature spikes during the reflood calculation resulted in high steam flow oscillation and liquid carryover. An effort had been made to improve the code with respect to the above weakness, and the necessary model for the wall heat transfer package and the numerical scheme had been modified. Some important FLECHT-SEASET experiments were assessed using the improved version and standard version. The result from the improved REAP/MOD3.1 shows the weaknesses of REAP/N4OD3.1 were much improved when compared to the standard MOD3.1 code. The prediction of void profile and cladding temperature agreed better with test data, especially for the gravity feed test. The scatter diagram of peak cladding temperatures (PCTs) is made from the comparison of all the calculated PCTs and the corresponding experimental values. The deviation between experimental and calculated PCTs were calculated for 2793 data points. The deviations are shown to be normally distributed, and used to quantify statistically the PCT uncertainty of the code. The upper limit of PCT uncertainty at 95% confidence level is evaluated to be about 99K.

  8. Climate SIGNATURES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SIGNATURES Fingerprints of a Dynamic Planet A Science of Signatures Plan 2 Climate Signatures for National Security Century of Change Los Alamos National Laboratory's charge is to develop science and technology that will make the Nation safer and enhance our global standing. This breadth of mission scope requires careful planning and effective cooperation with partners and other governmental agencies. The document you are holding is one of the products of ongoing efforts that are designed to

  9. High resolution climate simulation over Europe

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Deque, M.; Piedelievre, J.Ph.

    1995-08-01

    Three AMIP-type 10 year simulations have been performed with climate versions of the AR-PEGE-IFS model in order to simulate the European climate. The first one uses the standard T42 truncation. The second one uses a high resolution T106 truncation. The horizontal resolution of the third one varies between about T200 over Europe and T21 over the southern Pacific. The winter time general circulation improves in the Atlantic sector as the resolution increases. This is true for the time-mean pattern and for the transient and low-frequency variability. In summer time and in the southern hemisphere, the 3 versions of the model produce reasonable climatologies. When restricted to the European continent, the model verification against the observed climatology shows a reduction of the biases in temperature and, to a lesser extent, in precipitation with the increase in resolution. The use of a variable resolution GCM is a valid alternative to model nesting. The model is too warm in winter and too cold in summer, too wet in northern Europe and too dry in southern Europe. 33 refs., 16 figs., 6 tabs.

  10. Sensitivity of North American agriculture to ENSO-based climate scenarios and their socio-economic consequences: Modeling in an integrated assessment framework

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rosenberg, N.J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Brown, R.A.; Sands, R.D.; Legler, D.; Srinivasan, R.; Tiscareno-Lopez, M.

    1997-09-01

    A group of Canadian, US and Mexican natural resource specialists, organized by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) under its North American Energy, Environment and Economy (NA3E) Program, has applied a simulation modeling approach to estimating the impact of ENSO-driven climatic variations on the productivity of major crops grown in the three countries. Methodological development is described and results of the simulations presented in this report. EPIC (the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) was the agro-ecosystem model selected-for this study. EPIC uses a daily time step to simulate crop growth and yield, water use, runoff and soil erosion among other variables. The model was applied to a set of so-called representative farms parameterized through a specially-assembled Geographic Information System (GIS) to reflect the soils, topography, crop management and weather typical of the regions represented. Fifty one representative farms were developed for Canada, 66 for the US and 23 for Mexico. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) scenarios for the EPIC simulations were created using the historic record of sea-surface temperature (SST) prevailing in the eastern tropical Pacific for the period October 1--September 30. Each year between 1960 and 1989 was thus assigned to an ENSO category or state. The ENSO states were defined as El Nino (EN, SST warmer than the long-term mean), Strong El Nino (SEN, much warmer), El Viejo (EV, cooler) and Neutral (within {+-}0.5 C of the long-term mean). Monthly means of temperature and precipitation were then calculated at each farm for the period 1960--1989 and the differences (or anomalies) between the means in Neutral years and EN, SEN and EV years determined. The average monthly anomalies for each ENSO state were then used to create new monthly statistics for each farm and ENSO-state combination. The adjusted monthly statistics characteristic of each ENSO state were then used to drive a stochastic-weather simulator

  11. Progress in fast, accurate multi-scale climate simulations

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Collins, W. D.; Johansen, H.; Evans, K. J.; Woodward, C. S.; Caldwell, P. M.

    2015-06-01

    We present a survey of physical and computational techniques that have the potential to contribute to the next generation of high-fidelity, multi-scale climate simulations. Examples of the climate science problems that can be investigated with more depth with these computational improvements include the capture of remote forcings of localized hydrological extreme events, an accurate representation of cloud features over a range of spatial and temporal scales, and parallel, large ensembles of simulations to more effectively explore model sensitivities and uncertainties. Numerical techniques, such as adaptive mesh refinement, implicit time integration, and separate treatment of fast physical time scales are enablingmore » improved accuracy and fidelity in simulation of dynamics and allowing more complete representations of climate features at the global scale. At the same time, partnerships with computer science teams have focused on taking advantage of evolving computer architectures such as many-core processors and GPUs. As a result, approaches which were previously considered prohibitively costly have become both more efficient and scalable. In combination, progress in these three critical areas is poised to transform climate modeling in the coming decades.« less

  12. Progress in fast, accurate multi-scale climate simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Collins, W. D.; Johansen, H.; Evans, K. J.; Woodward, C. S.; Caldwell, P. M.

    2015-06-01

    We present a survey of physical and computational techniques that have the potential to contribute to the next generation of high-fidelity, multi-scale climate simulations. Examples of the climate science problems that can be investigated with more depth with these computational improvements include the capture of remote forcings of localized hydrological extreme events, an accurate representation of cloud features over a range of spatial and temporal scales, and parallel, large ensembles of simulations to more effectively explore model sensitivities and uncertainties. Numerical techniques, such as adaptive mesh refinement, implicit time integration, and separate treatment of fast physical time scales are enabling improved accuracy and fidelity in simulation of dynamics and allowing more complete representations of climate features at the global scale. At the same time, partnerships with computer science teams have focused on taking advantage of evolving computer architectures such as many-core processors and GPUs. As a result, approaches which were previously considered prohibitively costly have become both more efficient and scalable. In combination, progress in these three critical areas is poised to transform climate modeling in the coming decades.

  13. Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2015: Improve Fuel Economy through Formulation Design and Modeling

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation given by Ashland Inc. at 2015 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program and vehicle technologies office annual merit review and peer evaluation meeting about improve fuel economy through...

  14. Improving efficiency of a vehicle HVAC system with comfort modeling, zonal design, and thermoelectric devices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Discusses progress on thermal comfort modeling and detailed design, fabrication, and component/system-level testing of TE architecture

  15. An improved empirical model of electron and ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit based on upstream solar wind conditions

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Denton, M. H.; Henderson, M. G.; Jordanova, V. K.; Thomsen, M. F.; Borovsky, J. E.; Woodroffe, J.; Hartley, D. P.; Pitchford, D.

    2016-07-27

    In this study, a new empirical model of the electron fluxes and ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) is introduced, based on observations by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) satellites. The model provides flux predictions in the energy range ~1 eV to ~40 keV, as a function of local time, energy, and the strength of the solar wind electric field (the negative product of the solar wind speed and the z component of the magnetic field). Given appropriate upstream solar wind measurements, the model provides a forecast of the fluxes at GEO with a ~1 h lead time. Model predictionsmore » are tested against in-sample observations from LANL satellites and also against out-of-sample observations from the Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor II detector on the AMC-12 satellite. The model does not reproduce all structure seen in the observations. However, for the intervals studied here (quiet and storm times) the normalized root-mean-square deviation < ~0.3. It is intended that the model will improve forecasting of the spacecraft environment at GEO and also provide improved boundary/input conditions for physical models of the magnetosphere.« less

  16. On solar geoengineering and climate uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MacMartin, Douglas; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-09-03

    Uncertainty in the climate system response has been raised as a concern regarding solar geoengineering. Here we show that model projections of regional climate change outcomes may have greater agreement under solar geoengineering than with CO2 alone. We explore the effects of geoengineering on one source of climate system uncertainty by evaluating the inter-model spread across 12 climate models participating in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison project (GeoMIP). The model spread in regional temperature and precipitation changes is reduced with CO2 and a solar reduction, in comparison to the case with increased CO2 alone. That is, the intermodel spread in predictions of climate change and the model spread in the response to solar geoengineering are not additive but rather partially cancel. Furthermore, differences in efficacy explain most of the differences between models in their temperature response to an increase in CO2 that is offset by a solar reduction. These conclusions are important for clarifying geoengineering risks.

  17. Modulation of extremes in the Atlantic region by modes of climate variability/change: A mechanistic coupled regional model study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Saravanan, Ramalingam

    2015-01-09

    During the course of this project, we have accomplished the following: 1) Explored the parameter space of component models to minimize regional model bias 2) Assessed the impact of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, focusing in particular on the role of the oceanic barrier layer 3) Contributed to the activities of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group 4) Assessed the impact of lateral and lower boundary conditions on extreme flooding events in the U.S. Midwest in regional model simulations 5) Analyzed the concurrent impact of El Nio-Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Mode on Atlantic Hurricane activity using observations and regional model simulations

  18. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.

    1992-05-04

    The scope of the research program and the continuation is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 [times] 3.0 [times] 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by Rio Blanco Oil Shale Co., Inc. (RBOSC) through a separate cooperative agreement with the University of Wyoming (UW) to carry out this study. Three of the lysimeters were established at the RBOSC Tract C-a in the Piceance Basin of Colorado. Two lysimeters were established in the Environmental Simulation Laboratory (ESL) at UW. The ESL was specifically designed and constructed so that a large range of climatic conditions could be physically applied to the processed oil shale which was filled in the lysimeter cells.

  19. Improving Convective Parameterization Using ARM Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Improving Convective Parameterization Using ARM Data G. J. Zhang Center for Atmospheric Sciences Scripps Institution of Oceanography La Jolla, California Introduction Convective parameterization is one of the most challenging issues in global climate models (GCMs). Convection, as represented by convective parameterization schemes in GCMs, is controlled by the large- scale dynamic and thermodynamic fields through a closure condition. Such a closure condition is typically determined empirically by

  20. Dynamics of Arctic and Sub-Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Circulation: Diagnosis of Mechanisms and Biases Using Data Assimilation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eric T. DeWeaver

    2010-01-19

    This is the final report for DOE grant DE-FG02-07ER64434 to Eric DeWeaver at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. The overall goal of work performed under this grant is to enhance understanding of simulations of present-day climate and greenhouse gas-induced climate change. Enhanced understanding is desirable 1) as a prerequisite for improving simulations; 2) for assessing the credibility of model simulations and their usefulness as tools for decision support; and 3) as a means to identify robust behaviors which commonly occur over a wide range of models, and may yield insights regarding the dominant physical mechanisms which determine mean climate and produce climate change. A furthe objective is to investigate the use of data assimilation as a means for examining and correcting model biases. Our primary focus is on the Arctic, but the scope of the work was expanded to include the global climate system to the extent that research targets of opportunity present themselves. Research performed under the grant falls into five main research areas: 1) a study of data assimilation using an ensemble filter with the atmospheric circulation model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in which both conventional observations and observations of the refraction of radio waves from GPS satellites were used to constrain the atmospheric state of the model; 2) research on the likely future status of polar bears, in which climate model simluations were used to assess the effectiveness of climate change mitigation efforts in preserving the habitat of polar bears, now considered a threatened species under global warming; 3) as assessment of the credibility of Arctic sea ice thickness simulations from climate models; 4) An examination of the persistence and reemergence of Northern Hemisphere sea ice area anomalies in climate model simulations and in observations; 5) An examination of the roles played by changes in net radiation and surface relative humidity in determine the

  1. ARM Climate Research Facility | U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    ARM Climate Research Facility Biological and Environmental Research (BER) BER Home About Research Biological Systems Science Division (BSSD) Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD) ARM Climate Research Facility Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program Data Management Earth System Modeling (ESM) Program William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) Integrated Assessment of Global Climate Change Regional & Global Climate Modeling (RGCM) Program Subsurface

  2. An Improved Model To Forecast Co2 Leakage Rates Along A Wellbore...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    geometry of leakage pathways. We have implemented a SCP model described in the literature, which yields an estimate of the depth of the leakage source and the effective...

  3. Integrated reservoir characterization: Improvement in heterogeneities stochastic modelling by integration of additional external constraints

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doligez, B.; Eschard, R.; Geffroy, F.

    1997-08-01

    The classical approach to construct reservoir models is to start with a fine scale geological model which is informed with petrophysical properties. Then scaling-up techniques allow to obtain a reservoir model which is compatible with the fluid flow simulators. Geostatistical modelling techniques are widely used to build the geological models before scaling-up. These methods provide equiprobable images of the area under investigation, which honor the well data, and which variability is the same than the variability computed from the data. At an appraisal phase, when few data are available, or when the wells are insufficient to describe all the heterogeneities and the behavior of the field, additional constraints are needed to obtain a more realistic geological model. For example, seismic data or stratigraphic models can provide average reservoir information with an excellent areal coverage, but with a poor vertical resolution. New advances in modelisation techniques allow now to integrate this type of additional external information in order to constrain the simulations. In particular, 2D or 3D seismic derived information grids, or sand-shale ratios maps coming from stratigraphic models can be used as external drifts to compute the geological image of the reservoir at the fine scale. Examples are presented to illustrate the use of these new tools, their impact on the final reservoir model, and their sensitivity to some key parameters.

  4. Machine Learning Based Multi-Physical-Model Blending for Enhancing Renewable Energy Forecast -- Improvement via Situation Dependent Error Correction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lu, Siyuan; Hwang, Youngdeok; Khabibrakhmanov, Ildar; Marianno, Fernando J.; Shao, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Hamann, Hendrik F.

    2015-07-15

    With increasing penetration of solar and wind energy to the total energy supply mix, the pressing need for accurate energy forecasting has become well-recognized. Here we report the development of a machine-learning based model blending approach for statistically combining multiple meteorological models for improving the accuracy of solar/wind power forecast. Importantly, we demonstrate that in addition to parameters to be predicted (such as solar irradiance and power), including additional atmospheric state parameters which collectively define weather situations as machine learning input provides further enhanced accuracy for the blended result. Functional analysis of variance shows that the error of individual model has substantial dependence on the weather situation. The machine-learning approach effectively reduces such situation dependent error thus produces more accurate results compared to conventional multi-model ensemble approaches based on simplistic equally or unequally weighted model averaging. Validation over an extended period of time results show over 30% improvement in solar irradiance/power forecast accuracy compared to forecasts based on the best individual model.

  5. Climate research priorities in the DOE CO/sub 2/ program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MacCracken, M.C.

    1981-05-01

    A four-pronged approach to considering the climate aspects of the CO/sub 2/ issue has been developed. First, a variety of climate models are being improved, particularly in terms of their representation of the oceans, so that their simulation of the regional and temporal response to increasing CO/sub 2/ can be made more realistic. Second, past climatic situations, particularly warm periods, are being studied as possible analogs for the warmer conditions that increased CO/sub 2/ concentrations are expected to induce. Third, the results of model and past climate studies will be combined so that comprehensive scenarios can be assembled for use in assessment studies. Finally, a research program is being developed that will seek early evidence to determine whether the climate is responding to increasing CO/sub 2/. Present results indicate that the climatic change from doubled CO/sub 2/ will be greater than 1.5/sup 0/K, but that identifying evidence of such changes in the next twenty years will be difficult unless past climate variations and their causes are better understood.

  6. Improving Water Management: Applying ModelBuilder to site water impoundments using AEM survey data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sams, J.I.; Lipinski, B.A.; Harbert, W.P.; Ackman, T.E.

    2007-01-01

    ArcGIS ModelBuilder was used to create a GIS-based decision support model that incorporated digital elevation data and electromagnetic geophysical results gathered by helicopter to screen potential sites for water disposal impoundments produced from coal bed natural gas.

  7. Tribal Climate Change Webinars: BIA's Climate Change Competitive...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Tribal Climate Change Webinars: BIA's Climate Change Competitive Award Process Overview Tribal Climate Change Webinars: BIA's Climate Change Competitive Award Process Overview...

  8. MCA4Climate - Guidance for scientifically sound climate change...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    MCA4Climate - Guidance for scientifically sound climate change planning Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Multicriteria Analysis for Climate (MCA4climate)...

  9. ARM Climate Research Facility Annual Report 2004

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voyles, J.

    2004-12-31

    Like a rock that slowly wears away beneath the pressure of a waterfall, planet earth?s climate is almost imperceptibly changing. Glaciers are getting smaller, droughts are lasting longer, and extreme weather events like fires, floods, and tornadoes are occurring with greater frequency. Why? Part of the answer is clouds and the amount of solar radiation they reflect or absorb. These two factors clouds and radiative transfer represent the greatest source of error and uncertainty in the current generation of general circulation models used for climate research and simulation. The U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 established an interagency program within the Executive Office of the President to coordinate U.S. agency-sponsored scientific research designed to monitor, understand, and predict changes in the global environment. To address the need for new research on clouds and radiation, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) established the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. As part of the DOE?s overall Climate Change Science Program, a primary objective of the ARM Program is improved scientific understanding of the fundamental physics related to interactions between clouds and radiative feedback processes in the atmosphere.

  10. Parameterizing atmosphere-land surface exchange for climate models with satellite data: A case study for the Southern Great Plains CART site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gao, W.

    1994-01-01

    High-resolution satellite data provide detailed, quantitative descriptions of land surface characteristics over large areas so that objective scale linkage becomes feasible. With the aid of satellite data, Sellers et al. and Wood and Lakshmi examined the linearity of processes scaled up from 30 m to 15 km. If the phenomenon is scale invariant, then the aggregated value of a function or flux is equivalent to the function computed from aggregated values of controlling variables. The linear relation may be realistic for limited land areas having no large surface contrasts to cause significant horizontal exchange. However, for areas with sharp surface contrasts, horizontal exchange and different dynamics in the atmospheric boundary may induce nonlinear interactions, such as at interfaces of land-water, forest-farm land, and irrigated crops-desert steppe. The linear approach, however, represents the simplest scenario, and is useful for developing an effective scheme for incorporating subgrid land surface processes into large-scale models. Our studies focus on coupling satellite data and ground measurements with a satellite-data-driven land surface model to parameterize surface fluxes for large-scale climate models. In this case study, we used surface spectral reflectance data from satellite remote sensing to characterize spatial and temporal changes in vegetation and associated surface parameters in an area of about 350 {times} 400 km covering the southern Great Plains (SGP) Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site of the US Department of Energy`s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program.

  11. Improvements in fast-response flood modeling: desktop parallel computing and domain tracking

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Judi, David R; Mcpherson, Timothy N; Burian, Steven J

    2009-01-01

    It is becoming increasingly important to have the ability to accurately forecast flooding, as flooding accounts for the most losses due to natural disasters in the world and the United States. Flood inundation modeling has been dominated by one-dimensional approaches. These models are computationally efficient and are considered by many engineers to produce reasonably accurate water surface profiles. However, because the profiles estimated in these models must be superimposed on digital elevation data to create a two-dimensional map, the result may be sensitive to the ability of the elevation data to capture relevant features (e.g. dikes/levees, roads, walls, etc...). Moreover, one-dimensional models do not explicitly represent the complex flow processes present in floodplains and urban environments and because two-dimensional models based on the shallow water equations have significantly greater ability to determine flow velocity and direction, the National Research Council (NRC) has recommended that two-dimensional models be used over one-dimensional models for flood inundation studies. This paper has shown that two-dimensional flood modeling computational time can be greatly reduced through the use of Java multithreading on multi-core computers which effectively provides a means for parallel computing on a desktop computer. In addition, this paper has shown that when desktop parallel computing is coupled with a domain tracking algorithm, significant computation time can be eliminated when computations are completed only on inundated cells. The drastic reduction in computational time shown here enhances the ability of two-dimensional flood inundation models to be used as a near-real time flood forecasting tool, engineering, design tool, or planning tool. Perhaps even of greater significance, the reduction in computation time makes the incorporation of risk and uncertainty/ensemble forecasting more feasible for flood inundation modeling (NRC 2000; Sayers et al

  12. Improved Multivariate Calibration Models for Corn Stover Feedstock and Dilute-Acid Pretreated Corn Stover

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wolfrum, E. J.; Sluiter, A. D.

    2009-01-01

    We have studied rapid calibration models to predict the composition of a variety of biomass feedstocks by correlating near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopic data to compositional data produced using traditional wet chemical analysis techniques. The rapid calibration models are developed using multivariate statistical analysis of the spectroscopic and wet chemical data. This work discusses the latest versions of the NIR calibration models for corn stover feedstock and dilute-acid pretreated corn stover. Measures of the calibration precision and uncertainty are presented. No statistically significant differences (p = 0.05) are seen between NIR calibration models built using different mathematical pretreatments. Finally, two common algorithms for building NIR calibration models are compared; no statistically significant differences (p = 0.05) are seen for the major constituents glucan, xylan, and lignin, but the algorithms did produce different predictions for total extractives. A single calibration model combining the corn stover feedstock and dilute-acid pretreated corn stover samples gave less satisfactory predictions than the separate models.

  13. An improved three-dimensional two-temperature model for multi-pulse femtosecond laser ablation of aluminum

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jinping; Chen, Yuping Hu, Mengning; Chen, Xianfeng

    2015-02-14

    In this paper, an improved three-dimensional two-temperature model for multi-pulse femtosecond laser ablation of aluminum was proposed and proved in our experiment. Aiming to achieve hole-drilling with a high ratio of depth/entrance diameter in vacuum, this model can predict the depth and radius of the drilled holes precisely when employing different laser parameters. Additionally, for multi-pulse laser ablation, we found that the laser fluence and number of pulses are the dominant parameters and the multi-pulse ablation threshold is much lower than the single-pulse one, which will help to obtain high-quality holes.

  14. Climate Leadership Conference

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The annual Climate Leadership Conference convenes a global audience of climate, energy, and sustainability professionals to address climate change through policy, innovation, and business solutions. Now in its fifth year, the 2016 event will host the first U.S. climate conference post-Paris to further accelerate climate solutions and a low-carbon economy.

  15. A Survey of Techniques for Modeling and Improving Reliability of Computing Systems

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Mittal, Sparsh; Vetter, Jeffrey S.

    2015-04-24

    Recent trends of aggressive technology scaling have greatly exacerbated the occurrences and impact of faults in computing systems. This has made `reliability' a first-order design constraint. To address the challenges of reliability, several techniques have been proposed. In this study, we provide a survey of architectural techniques for improving resilience of computing systems. We especially focus on techniques proposed for microarchitectural components, such as processor registers, functional units, cache and main memory etc. In addition, we discuss techniques proposed for non-volatile memory, GPUs and 3D-stacked processors. To underscore the similarities and differences of the techniques, we classify them based onmore » their key characteristics. We also review the metrics proposed to quantify vulnerability of processor structures. Finally, we believe that this survey will help researchers, system-architects and processor designers in gaining insights into the techniques for improving reliability of computing systems.« less

  16. A Survey of Techniques for Modeling and Improving Reliability of Computing Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mittal, Sparsh; Vetter, Jeffrey S.

    2015-04-24

    Recent trends of aggressive technology scaling have greatly exacerbated the occurrences and impact of faults in computing systems. This has made `reliability' a first-order design constraint. To address the challenges of reliability, several techniques have been proposed. In this study, we provide a survey of architectural techniques for improving resilience of computing systems. We especially focus on techniques proposed for microarchitectural components, such as processor registers, functional units, cache and main memory etc. In addition, we discuss techniques proposed for non-volatile memory, GPUs and 3D-stacked processors. To underscore the similarities and differences of the techniques, we classify them based on their key characteristics. We also review the metrics proposed to quantify vulnerability of processor structures. Finally, we believe that this survey will help researchers, system-architects and processor designers in gaining insights into the techniques for improving reliability of computing systems.

  17. Private Company Uses EERE-Supported Chemistry Model to Substantially Improve Combustion Engine Simulation Software

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Convergent Science, Inc. (CSI) is using Lawrence Livermore National Laboratorys Multi-Zone Combustion Model (MCM) to help automotive engineers develop the next generation of high-efficiency, low-emission vehicles.

  18. Autonomie Modeling Tool Improves Vehicle Design and Testing, Informs New Fuel Economy Standards

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Autonomie, an advanced vehicle modeling and design software package created by Argonne National laboratory with EERE support, is helping U.S. auto manufacturers develop the next generation of hybrid and electric vehicles.

  19. Carbon dioxide and climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-10-01

    Scientific and public interest in greenhouse gases, climate warming, and global change virtually exploded in 1988. The Department's focused research on atmospheric CO{sub 2} contributed sound and timely scientific information to the many questions produced by the groundswell of interest and concern. Research projects summarized in this document provided the data base that made timely responses possible, and the contributions from participating scientists are genuinely appreciated. In the past year, the core CO{sub 2} research has continued to improve the scientific knowledge needed to project future atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations, to estimate climate sensitivity, and to assess the responses of vegetation to rising concentrations of CO{sub 2} and to climate change. The Carbon Dioxide Research Program's goal is to develop sound scientific information for policy formulation and governmental action in response to changes of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. The Program Summary describes projects funded by the Carbon Dioxide Research Program during FY 1990 and gives a brief overview of objectives, organization, and accomplishments.

  20. Re-refinement from deposited X-ray data can deliver improved models for most PDB entries

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Joosten, Robbie P.; Womack, Thomas; Vriend, Gert; Bricogne, Gérard

    2009-02-01

    An evaluation of validation and real-space intervention possibilities for improving existing automated (re-)refinement methods. The deposition of X-ray data along with the customary structural models defining PDB entries makes it possible to apply large-scale re-refinement protocols to these entries, thus giving users the benefit of improvements in X-ray methods that have occurred since the structure was deposited. Automated gradient refinement is an effective method to achieve this goal, but real-space intervention is most often required in order to adequately address problems detected by structure-validation software. In order to improve the existing protocol, automated re-refinement was combined with structure validation and difference-density peak analysis to produce a catalogue of problems in PDB entries that are amenable to automatic correction. It is shown that re-refinement can be effective in producing improvements, which are often associated with the systematic use of the TLS parameterization of B factors, even for relatively new and high-resolution PDB entries, while the accompanying manual or semi-manual map analysis and fitting steps show good prospects for eventual automation. It is proposed that the potential for simultaneous improvements in methods and in re-refinement results be further encouraged by broadening the scope of depositions to include refinement metadata and ultimately primary rather than reduced X-ray data.

  1. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Monte Carlo modeling it was found that for noisy signals with a significant background component, accuracy is improved by fitting the total emission data which includes the...

  2. DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PERFORMANCE COLD CLIMATE HEAT PUMP

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Horton, W. Travis; Groll, Eckhard A.; Braun, James E.

    2014-06-01

    The primary goals of the proposed project were to develop, test, and evaluate a high performance and cost-effective vapor compression air-source heat pump for use in cold climate regions. Vapor compression heat pumps are a proven technology, and have been used for many years to meet heating requirements for buildings in residential, commercial, and industrial applications. However, in climate regions that experience very low outdoor ambient temperatures both the heating capacity and coefficient of performance (COP) of traditional air-source vapor compression heat pumps drops dramatically with a decrease in the outdoor air temperature. The efficiency of heat pumping equipment has improved substantially over the past 20 years; however, the efficiencies of the highest rated equipment on the market are approaching practical limits that cannot be surpassed without modifications to the basic cycle and possibly the use of additional hardware. In this report, three technologies to improve the efficiency of vapor compression systems are described. These are a) vapor injected compression, b) oil flooded compression and c) hybrid flow control of the evaporator. Compressor prototypes for both, oil flooded and vapor injected compression were developed by Emerson Climate Technologies. For the oil flooded compressor, the oil injection port location was optimized and an internal oil separator was added using several design iterations. After initial testing at Emerson Climate Technologies, further testing was done at Purdue University, and compressor models were developed. These models were then integrated into a system model to determine the achievable improvement of seasonal energy efficiency (SEER) for Minneapolis (Minnesota) climate. For the oil flooded compression, a 34% improvement in seasonal energy efficiency was found while a 21% improvement in seasonal energy efficiency ratio was found for the vapor injected compression. It was found that one benefit of both tested

  3. Development of a climate data analysis tool (CDAT)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marlais, S.M.

    1997-09-01

    The Climate Data Analysis Tool (CDAT) is designed to provide the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, California, with the capabilities needed to analyze model data with little effort on the part of the scientist, while performing complex mathematical calculations, and graphically displaying the results. This computer software will meet the demanding need of climate scientists by providing the necessary tools to diagnose, validate, and intercompare large observational and global climate model datasets.

  4. Cloud Occurrence Frequency at the Barrow, Alaska, ARM Climate Research Facility for 2008 Third Quarter 2009 ARM and Climate Change Prediction Program Metric Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    M Jensen; K Johnson; JH Mather

    2009-07-14

    Clouds represent a critical component of the Earth’s atmospheric energy balance as a result of their interactions with solar and terrestrial radiation and a redistribution of heat through convective processes and latent heating. Despite their importance, clouds and the processes that control their development, evolution and lifecycle remain poorly understood. Consequently, the simulation of clouds and their associated feedbacks is a primary source of inter-model differences in equilibrium climate sensitivity. An important step in improving the representation of cloud process simulations is an improved high-resolution observational data set of the cloud systems including their time evolution. The first order quantity needed to understand the important role of clouds is the height of cloud occurrence and how it changes as a function of time. To this end, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facilities (ACRF) suite of instrumentation has been developed to make the observations required to improve the representation of cloud systems in atmospheric models.

  5. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  6. Climate Data Operators (CDO)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Climate Data Operators (CDO) Climate Data Operators (CDO) Description and Overview CDO is a large tool set for working on climate data. NetCDF 34, GRIB including SZIP compression, ...

  7. Simulation investigation of multipactor in metal components for space application with an improved secondary emission model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Yun E-mail: cuiwanzhao@126.com; Cui, Wan-Zhao E-mail: cuiwanzhao@126.com; Wang, Hong-Guang

    2015-05-15

    Effects of the secondary electron emission (SEE) phenomenon of metal surface on the multipactor analysis of microwave components are investigated numerically and experimentally in this paper. Both the secondary electron yield (SEY) and the emitted energy spectrum measurements are performed on silver plated samples for accurate description of the SEE phenomenon. A phenomenological probabilistic model based on SEE physics is utilized and fitted accurately to the measured SEY and emitted energy spectrum of the conditioned surface material of microwave components. Specially, the phenomenological probabilistic model is extended to the low primary energy end lower than 20 eV mathematically, since no accurate measurement data can be obtained. Embedding the phenomenological probabilistic model into the Electromagnetic Particle-In-Cell (EM-PIC) method, the electronic resonant multipacting in microwave components can be tracked and hence the multipactor threshold can be predicted. The threshold prediction error of the transformer and the coaxial filter is 0.12 dB and 1.5 dB, respectively. Simulation results demonstrate that the discharge threshold is strongly dependent on the SEYs and its energy spectrum in the low energy end (lower than 50 eV). Multipacting simulation results agree quite well with experiments in practical components, while the phenomenological probabilistic model fit both the SEY and the emission energy spectrum better than the traditionally used model and distribution. The EM-PIC simulation method with the phenomenological probabilistic model for the surface collision simulation has been demonstrated for predicting the multipactor threshold in metal components for space application.

  8. Comparison of model predictions with measurements using the improved spent fuel attribute tester

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dupree, S.A.; Laub, T.W.; Arlt, R.

    1994-08-01

    Design improvements for the International Atomic Energy Agency`s Spent Fuel Attribute Tester, recommended on the basis of an optimization study, were incorporated into a new instrument fabricated under the Finnish Support Programme. The new instrument was tested at a spent fuel storage pool on September 8 and 9, 1993. The result of two of the measurements have been compared with calculations. In both cases the calculated and measured pulse height spectra in good agreement and the {sup 137}Cs gamma peak signature from the target spent fuel element is present.

  9. Simulation Speed Analysis and Improvements of Modelica Models for Building Energy Simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jorissen, Filip; Wetter, Michael; Helsen, Lieve

    2015-09-21

    This paper presents an approach for speeding up Modelica models. Insight is provided into how Modelica models are solved and what determines the tool’s computational speed. Aspects such as algebraic loops, code efficiency and integrator choice are discussed. This is illustrated using simple building simulation examples and Dymola. The generality of the work is in some cases verified using OpenModelica. Using this approach, a medium sized office building including building envelope, heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and control strategy can be simulated at a speed five hundred times faster than real time.

  10. A reduced order modeling approach to represent subgrid-scale hydrological dynamics for regional- and climate-scale land-surface simulations: application in a polygonal tundra landscape

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pau, G. S. H.; Bisht, G.; Riley, W. J.

    2014-04-04

    Existing land surface models (LSMs) describe physical and biological processes that occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. For example, biogeochemical and hydrological processes responsible for carbon (CO2, CH4) exchanges with the atmosphere range from molecular scale (pore-scale O2 consumption) to tens of kilometer scale (vegetation distribution, river networks). Additionally, many processes within LSMs are nonlinearly coupled (e.g., methane production and soil moisture dynamics), and therefore simple linear upscaling techniques can result in large prediction error. In this paper we applied a particular reduced-order modeling (ROM) technique known as "Proper Orthogonal Decomposition mapping method" that reconstructs temporally-resolvedmore » fine-resolution solutions based on coarse-resolution solutions. We applied this technique to four study sites in a polygonal tundra landscape near Barrow, Alaska. Coupled surface-subsurface isothermal simulations were performed for summer months (June–September) at fine (0.25 m) and coarse (8 m) horizontal resolutions. We used simulation results from three summer seasons (1998–2000) to build ROMs of the 4-D soil moisture field for the four study sites individually (single-site) and aggregated (multi-site). The results indicate that the ROM produced a significant computational speedup (> 103) with very small relative approximation error (< 0.1%) for two validation years not used in training the ROM. We also demonstrated that our approach: (1) efficiently corrects for coarse-resolution model bias and (2) can be used for polygonal tundra sites not included in the training dataset with relatively good accuracy (< 1.5% relative error), thereby allowing for the possibility of applying these ROMs across a much larger landscape. This method has the potential to efficiently increase the resolution of land models for coupled climate simulations, allowing LSMs to be used at spatial scales consistent with

  11. Long-Term Water Projections and Climate Change | U.S. DOE Office...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Long-Term Water Projections and Climate Change Biological and Environmental Research (BER) ... Long-Term Water Projections and Climate Change Model scenarios predict increased scarcity ...

  12. Assessing Climate Uncertainty

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Climate Uncertainty The uncertainty in climate change and in its impacts is of great concern to the international community. While the ever-growing body of scientific evidence substantiates present climate change, the driving concern about this issue lies in the consequences it poses to humanity. Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have quantified all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. Sandia scientists

  13. IMPROVED MODELING OF THE ROSSITER-McLAUGHLIN EFFECT FOR TRANSITING EXOPLANETS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hirano, Teruyuki; Winn, Joshua N.; Albrecht, Simon; Suto, Yasushi; Taruya, Atsushi; Narita, Norio; Sato, Bun'ei

    2011-12-01

    We present an improved formula for the anomalous radial velocity of the star during planetary transits due to the Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) effect. The improvement comes from a more realistic description of the stellar absorption line profiles, taking into account stellar rotation, macroturbulence, thermal broadening, pressure broadening, and instrumental broadening. Although the formula is derived for the case in which radial velocities are measured by cross-correlation, we show through numerical simulations that the formula accurately describes the cases where the radial velocities are measured with the iodine absorption-cell technique. The formula relies on prior knowledge of the parameters describing macroturbulence, instrumental broadening, and other broadening mechanisms, but even 30% errors in those parameters do not significantly change the results in typical circumstances. We show that the new analytic formula agrees with previous ones that had been computed on a case-by-case basis via numerical simulations. Finally, as one application of the new formula, we reassess the impact of the differential rotation on the RM velocity anomaly. We show that differential rotation of a rapidly rotating star may have a significant impact on future RM observations.

  14. An economic decision framework using modeling for improving aquifer remediation design

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    James, B.R.; Gwo, J.P.; Toran, L.E.

    1995-11-01

    Reducing cost is a critical challenge facing environmental remediation today. One of the most effective ways of reducing costs is to improve decision-making. This can range from choosing more cost- effective remediation alternatives (for example, determining whether a groundwater contamination plume should be remediated or not) to improving data collection (for example, determining when data collection should stoop). Uncertainty in site conditions presents a major challenge for effective decision-making. We present a framework for increasing the effectiveness of remedial design decision-making at groundwater contamination sites where there is uncertainty in many parameters that affect remediation design. The objective is to provide an easy-to-use economic framework for making remediation decisions. The presented framework is used to 1) select the best remedial design from a suite of possible ones, 2) estimate if additional data collection is cost-effective, and 3) determine the most important parameters to be sampled. The framework is developed by combining elements from Latin-Hypercube simulation of contaminant transport, economic risk-cost-benefit analysis, and Regional Sensitivity Analysis (RSA).

  15. ENTHALPY-BASED THERMAL EVOLUTION OF LOOPS. II. IMPROVEMENTS TO THE MODEL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cargill, P. J.; Bradshaw, S. J.; Klimchuk, J. A.

    2012-06-20

    This paper develops the zero-dimensional (0D) hydrodynamic coronal loop model 'Enthalpy-based Thermal Evolution of Loops' (EBTEL) proposed by Klimchuk et al., which studies the plasma response to evolving coronal heating, especially impulsive heating events. The basis of EBTEL is the modeling of mass exchange between the corona and transition region (TR) and chromosphere in response to heating variations, with the key parameter being the ratio of the TR to coronal radiation. We develop new models for this parameter that now include gravitational stratification and a physically motivated approach to radiative cooling. A number of examples are presented, including nanoflares in short and long loops, and a small flare. The new features in EBTEL are important for accurate tracking of, in particular, the density. The 0D results are compared to a 1D hydro code (Hydrad) with generally good agreement. EBTEL is suitable for general use as a tool for (1) quick-look results of loop evolution in response to a given heating function, (2) extensive parameter surveys, and (3) situations where the modeling of hundreds or thousands of elemental loops is needed. A single run takes a few seconds on a contemporary laptop.

  16. Dataset used to improve liquid water absorption models in the microwave

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Turner, David

    2015-12-14

    Two datasets, one a compilation of laboratory data and one a compilation from three field sites, are provided here. These datasets provide measurements of the real and imaginary refractive indices and absorption as a function of cloud temperature. These datasets were used in the development of the new liquid water absorption model that was published in Turner et al. 2015.

  17. Improved Modeling and Understanding of Diffusion-Media Wettability on Polymer-Electrolyte-Fuel-Cell Performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weber, Adam

    2010-03-05

    A macroscopic-modeling methodology to account for the chemical and structural properties of fuel-cell diffusion media is developed. A previous model is updated to include for the first time the use of experimentally measured capillary pressure -- saturation relationships through the introduction of a Gaussian contact-angle distribution into the property equations. The updated model is used to simulate various limiting-case scenarios of water and gas transport in fuel-cell diffusion media. Analysis of these results demonstrate that interfacial conditions are more important than bulk transport in these layers, where the associated mass-transfer resistance is the result of higher capillary pressures at the boundaries and the steepness of the capillary pressure -- saturation relationship. The model is also used to examine the impact of a microporous layer, showing that it dominates the response of the overall diffusion medium. In addition, its primary mass-transfer-related effect is suggested to be limiting the water-injection sites into the more porous gas-diffusion layer.

  18. Radioactivity studies. Progress report. Volume I. [An improved model of uranium metabolism in the primate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, N.

    1981-09-01

    A model was developed to be used to calculate the accumulation of uranium in the organs of the human body for different kinds of exposure. The proposed model divides the human body into compartments: red cell, short-term bone, long-term bone, kidney, and urine. The transfer rate between compartments is governed by 1st order kinetics. Transfer from plasma to the other compartments is instantaneous. Feedback from compartments to plasma is taken into account. The division of blood into plasma and red cell compartment is important to the calculations of uranium transport during the first few days after exposure. It was noted that uranium in bone has two different half-lives depending on the site of deposition, a short-term and a long-term bone component. An analytical solution to the model was proposed for any time-dependent exposure to uranium. This methodology is unique to this model and represents a significant change in analytical solutions. Specific analytical solutions for common cases of uranium exposure were derived. These include: single injection dose to the blood; exposure to background levels of natural uranium by ingestion; exposure through inhalation during working hours for uranium workers; single inhalation dose; constant inhalation exposure during a finite interval of time; and single ingestion dose. For model verification five baboons were injected intravenously with uranium nitrate and the partition of uranium between plasma and red cells was studied. The half-life in short-term bone was derived and the distribution in soft tissues four days after injection was studied: the kidney was the main organ for uranium deposition. The concentration in human skeleton was equal to 0.02 ..mu..g U/g ash. For this concentration in skeleton the gastrointestinal absorption factor was calculated as 23% and the daily excretion as 0.24 ..mu..g U/day.

  19. FY08 LDRD Final Report Regional Climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bader, D C; Chin, H; Caldwell, P M

    2009-05-19

    An integrated, multi-model capability for regional climate change simulation is needed to perform original analyses to understand and prepare for the impacts of climate change on the time and space scales that are critical to California's future environmental quality and economic prosperity. Our intent was to develop a very high resolution regional simulation capability to address consequences of climate change in California to complement the global modeling capability that is supported by DOE at LLNL and other institutions to inform national and international energy policies. The California state government, through the California Energy Commission (CEC), institutionalized the State's climate change assessment process through its biennial climate change reports. The bases for these reports, however, are global climate change simulations for future scenarios designed to inform international policy negotiations, and are primarily focused on the global to continental scale impacts of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. These simulations do not meet the needs of California public and private officials who will make major decisions in the next decade that require an understanding of climate change in California for the next thirty to fifty years and its effects on energy use, water utilization, air quality, agriculture and natural ecosystems. With the additional development of regional dynamical climate modeling capability, LLNL will be able to design and execute global simulations specifically for scenarios important to the state, then use those results to drive regional simulations of the impacts of the simulated climate change for regions as small as individual cities or watersheds. Through this project, we systematically studied the strengths and weaknesses of downscaling global model results with a regional mesoscale model to guide others, particularly university researchers, who are using the technique based on models with less complete parameterizations or

  20. ARM Climate Research Facility

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 ARM Climate Research Facility Quarterly Ingest Status Report A Koontz C Sivaraman ... DOESC-ARM-14-003 ARM Climate Research Facility Quarterly Ingest Report First Quarter: ...

  1. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SunShot Grand Challenge: Regional Test Centers Global Climate & Energy HomeTag:Global Climate & Energy Electricity use by water service sector and county. Shown are electricity ...

  2. ARM Climate Research Facility

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    8 ARM Climate Research Facility Quarterly Ingest Status Report A Koontz C Sivaraman ... DOESC-ARM-14-028 ARM Climate Research Facility Quarterly Ingest Report Fourth Quarter: ...

  3. ARM Climate Research Facility

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 ARM Climate Research Facility Quarterly Ingest Status Report A Koontz C Sivaraman ... DOESC-ARM-15-003 ARM Climate Research Facility Quarterly Ingest Report First Quarter: ...

  4. Climate change cripples forests

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Climate change cripples forests Climate change cripples forests A team of scientists concluded that in the warmer and drier Southwest of the near future, widespread tree mortality ...

  5. ARM Climate Research Facility

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    DOESC-ARM-15-019 ARM Climate Research Facility Quarterly Value-Added Product Report ... implemented by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility. ...

  6. ARM Climate Research Facility

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    DOESC-ARM-15-020 ARM Climate Research Facility Quarterly Ingest Report Second Quarter: ... maintained by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility. ...

  7. ARM Climate Research Facility

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ARM Climate Research Facility Quarterly Ingest Status Report A Koontz C Sivaraman April ... DOESC-ARM-14-014 ARM Climate Research Facility Quarterly Ingest Report Second Quarter: ...

  8. Climate change cripples forests

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    during years with abnormally wet winters While we cannot observe future climate, Williams said, we can consider projections of future climate trends produced by a collection of...

  9. Climate change cripples forests

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Climate Change Cripples Forests Climate change cripples forests A team of scientists concluded that in the warmer and drier Southwest of the near future, widespread tree mortality...

  10. Final Report. Evaluating the Climate Sensitivity of Dissipative Subgrid-Scale Mixing Processes and Variable Resolution in NCAR's Community Earth System Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jablonowski, Christiane

    2015-12-14

    The goals of this project were to (1) assess and quantify the sensitivity and scale-dependency of unresolved subgrid-scale mixing processes in NCAR’s Community Earth System Model (CESM), and (2) to improve the accuracy and skill of forthcoming CESM configurations on modern cubed-sphere and variable-resolution computational grids. The research thereby contributed to the description and quantification of uncertainties in CESM’s dynamical cores and their physics-dynamics interactions.

  11. Model Developments for Development of Improved Emissions Scenarios: Developing Purchasing-Power Parity Models, Analyzing Uncertainty, and Developing Data Sets for Gridded Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yang, Zili; Nordhaus, William

    2009-03-19

    In the duration of this project, we finished the main tasks set up in the initial proposal. These tasks include: setting up the basic platform in GAMS language for the new RICE 2007 model; testing various model structure of RICE 2007; incorporating PPP data set in the new RICE model; developing gridded data set for IA modeling.

  12. Secretary Chu Invites Energy Leaders to the Energy and Climate...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    improve energy security and end energy poverty." The Ministerial will have two parts. ... as tools to help fight climate change, promote energy security, and end energy poverty. ...

  13. Charter for the ARM Climate Research Facility Science Board ...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    The objective of the ARM Science Board is to promote the Nation's scientific enterprise by ... scientific applications for improving understanding and prediction of climate science. ...

  14. Bangladesh-USAID Climate Program | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    ourwork Country Bangladesh Southern Asia References Bangladesh1 "USAID's climate change activities in Bangladesh seek to improve energy sector performance through...

  15. Progress in Fast, Accurate Multi-scale Climate Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Collins, William D; Johansen, Hans; Evans, Katherine J; Woodward, Carol S.; Caldwell, Peter

    2015-01-01

    We present a survey of physical and computational techniques that have the potential to con- tribute to the next generation of high-fidelity, multi-scale climate simulations. Examples of the climate science problems that can be investigated with more depth include the capture of remote forcings of localized hydrological extreme events, an accurate representation of cloud features over a range of spatial and temporal scales, and parallel, large ensembles of simulations to more effectively explore model sensitivities and uncertainties. Numerical techniques, such as adaptive mesh refinement, implicit time integration, and separate treatment of fast physical time scales are enabling improved accuracy and fidelity in simulation of dynamics and allow more complete representations of climate features at the global scale. At the same time, part- nerships with computer science teams have focused on taking advantage of evolving computer architectures, such as many-core processors and GPUs, so that these approaches which were previously considered prohibitively costly have become both more efficient and scalable. In combination, progress in these three critical areas is poised to transform climate modeling in the coming decades.

  16. Global climate change and international security

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  17. Analysis of climatic conditions and preliminary assessment of alternative cooling strategies for houses in California transition climate zones

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huang, Y.J.; Zhang, H.

    1995-07-01

    This is a preliminary scoping study done as part of the {open_quotes}Alternatives to Compressive Cooling in California Transition Climates{close_quotes} project, which has the goal of demonstrating that houses in the transitional areas between the coast and the Central Valley of California do not require air-conditioning if they are properly designed and operated. The first part of this report analyzes the climate conditions within the transitional areas, with emphasis on design rather than seasonal conditions. Transitional climates are found to be milder but more variable than those further inland. The design temperatures under the most stringent design criteria, e.g. 0.1 % annual, are similar to those in the Valley, but significantly lower under more relaxed design criteria, e.g., 2% annual frequency. Transition climates also have large day-night temperature swings, indicating significant potential for night cooling, and wet-bulb depressions in excess of 25 F, indicating good potential for evaporative cooling. The second part of the report is a preliminary assessment using DOE-2 computer simulations of the effectiveness of alternative cooling and control strategies in improving indoor comfort conditions in two conventional Title-24 houses modeled in various transition climate locations. The cooling measures studied include increased insulation, light colors, low-emissivity glazing, window overhangs, and exposed floor slab. The control strategies studied include natural and mechanical ventilation, and direct and two-stage evaporative cooling. The results indicate the cooling strategies all have limited effectiveness, and need to be combined to produce significant improvements in indoor comfort. Natural and forced ventilation provide similar improvements in indoor conditions, but during peak cooling periods, these will still be above the comfort zone. Two-stage evaporative coolers can maintain indoor comfort at all hours, but not so direct evaporative coolers.

  18. Depositional sequence analysis and sedimentologic modeling for improved prediction of Pennsylvanian reservoirs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Watney, W.L.

    1994-12-01

    Reservoirs in the Lansing-Kansas City limestone result from complex interactions among paleotopography (deposition, concurrent structural deformation), sea level, and diagenesis. Analysis of reservoirs and surface and near-surface analogs has led to developing a {open_quotes}strandline grainstone model{close_quotes} in which relative sea-level stabilized during regressions, resulting in accumulation of multiple grainstone buildups along depositional strike. Resulting stratigraphy in these carbonate units are generally predictable correlating to inferred topographic elevation along the shelf. This model is a valuable predictive tool for (1) locating favorable reservoirs for exploration, and (2) anticipating internal properties of the reservoir for field development. Reservoirs in the Lansing-Kansas City limestones are developed in both oolitic and bioclastic grainstones, however, re-analysis of oomoldic reservoirs provides the greatest opportunity for developing bypassed oil. A new technique, the {open_quotes}Super{close_quotes} Pickett crossplot (formation resistivity vs. porosity) and its use in an integrated petrophysical characterization, has been developed to evaluate extractable oil remaining in these reservoirs. The manual method in combination with 3-D visualization and modeling can help to target production limiting heterogeneities in these complex reservoirs and moreover compute critical parameters for the field such as bulk volume water. Application of this technique indicates that from 6-9 million barrels of Lansing-Kansas City oil remain behind pipe in the Victory-Northeast Lemon Fields. Petroleum geologists are challenged to quantify inferred processes to aid in developing rationale geologically consistent models of sedimentation so that acceptable levels of prediction can be obtained.

  19. Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    McCollum, David L.; Wilson, Charlie; Pettifor, Hazel; Ramea, Kalai; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan; Bertram, Christoph; Lin, Zhenhong; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Fujisawa, Sei

    2016-05-03

    A large body of transport sector-focused research recognizes the complexity of human behavior in relation to mobility. Yet, global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which are widely used to evaluate the costs, potentials, and consequences of different greenhouse gas emission trajectories over the medium-to-long term, typically represent behavior and the end use of energy as a simple rational choice between available alternatives, even though abundant empirical evidence shows that real-world decision making is more complex and less routinely rational. This paper demonstrates the value of incorporating certain features of consumer behavior in IAMs, focusing on light-duty vehicle (LDV) purchase decisions. Anmore » innovative model formulation is developed to represent heterogeneous consumer groups with varying preferences for vehicle novelty, range, refueling/recharging availability, and variety. The formulation is then implemented in the transport module of MESSAGE-Transport, a global IAM, although it also has the generic flexibility to be applied in energy-economy models with varying set-ups. Comparison of conventional and behaviorally-realistic model runs with respect to vehicle purchase decisions shows that consumer preferences may slow down the transition to alternative fuel (low-carbon) vehicles. Consequently, stronger price-based incentives and/or non-price based measures may be needed to transform the global fleet of passenger vehicles, at least in the initial market phases of novel alternatives. Otherwise, the mitigation burden borne by other transport sub-sectors and other energy sectors could be higher than previously estimated. Moreover, capturing behavioral features of energy consumers in global IAMs increases their usefulness to policy makers by allowing a more realistic assessment of a more diverse suite of policies.« less

  20. On Improving Analytical Models of Cosmic Reionization for Matching Numerical Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kaurov, Alexander A.

    2016-01-01

    The methods for studying the epoch of cosmic reionization vary from full radiative transfer simulations to purely analytical models. While numerical approaches are computationally expensive and are not suitable for generating many mock catalogs, analytical methods are based on assumptions and approximations. We explore the interconnection between both methods. First, we ask how the analytical framework of excursion set formalism can be used for statistical analysis of numerical simulations and visual representation of the morphology of ionization fronts. Second, we explore the methods of training the analytical model on a given numerical simulation. We present a new code which emerged from this study. Its main application is to match the analytical model with a numerical simulation. Then, it allows one to generate mock reionization catalogs with volumes exceeding the original simulation quickly and computationally inexpensively, meanwhile reproducing large scale statistical properties. These mock catalogs are particularly useful for CMB polarization and 21cm experiments, where large volumes are required to simulate the observed signal.