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Sample records for impact models jedi

  1. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Models - About JEDI

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Marine & Hydrokinetic Power Model Analysis JEDI Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models Printable Version About JEDI Marine & Hydrokinetic Power Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Marine and Hydrokinetic (MHK) model allows users to estimate economic development impacts from MHK power generation projects. The basic user interface for the MHK model is the same as for all other JEDI models. Results are provided in the same format as other JEDI models allowing for

  2. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Models - About...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Biofuels Models The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) biofuel models include ... Download the JEDI Biofuels Models Printable Version JEDI Home About JEDI Biofuels Models ...

  3. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Models - About JEDI

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Transmission Line Model Transmission Line Model The Transmission Line Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model allows the user to estimate economic development impacts associated with transmission line projects. Applying a similar user interface as other JEDI models, Transmission Line JEDI requires a few additional user inputs such as: Transmission Line Type Line Length Terrain Type Right-of-Way Characteristics. Results are presented in the same manner as those in other JEDI

  4. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Models - About JEDI

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Photovoltaics Model Photovoltaics Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Photovoltaics (PV) model allows users to estimate economic development impacts from PV projects. JEDI PV has default information that can be utilized to run a generic impacts analysis assuming industry averages. Model users are encouraged to enter as much project-specific data as possible. The PV JEDI model is designed for use on a PC and has very limited functionality on a Mac. However, this model is

  5. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Models - About JEDI Coal

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Model Coal Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Coal model allows the user to estimate economic development impacts from coal power generation projects. Applying a similar user interface as the JEDI Wind model, JEDI Coal requires a few additional user inputs. JEDI Coal user inputs include: Capacity Factor Heat Rate Fuel Costs Fuel Produced Locally (Percent)* Results are presented in the same manner as those in the JEDI Wind and Natural Gas models. This allows

  6. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Models - About JEDI

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Conventional Hydro Model Conventional Hydro Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Conventional Hydro model was developed to demonstrate the economic benefits associated with conventional hydro power plants in the United States. The primary goal in developing the state level model was to provide a tool for developers, renewable energy advocates, government officials, decision makers and other potential users, to easily identify the local economic impacts associated with

  7. NREL: Energy Analysis - Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Analysis Printable Version JEDI Fact Sheet The cover of JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model factsheet. PDF 563 KB The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local and state levels. First developed by NREL's WINDExchange program to model wind energy impacts, JEDI has been expanded to analyze biofuels, coal, concentrating solar power,

  8. Jobs and Economic Development Impacts from Small Wind: JEDI Model in the Works (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tegen, S.

    2012-06-01

    This presentation covers the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's role in economic impact analysis for wind power Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, JEDI results, small wind JEDI specifics, and a request for information to complete the model.

  9. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Models - Downloading...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    C10.13.14. (Excel 341 KB) JEDI Hydroelectric Power Models ... P11.04.14. (Excel 4.3 MB) JEDI Transmission Line Model JEDI ... Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, ...

  10. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model Fact Sheet

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. Hendrickson; S.Tegen

    2009-12-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local(usually state) level. First developed by NREL's Wind Powering America program to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to biofuels,concentrating solar power, coal, and natural gas power plants.

  11. Job and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model: A User-Friendly Tool to Calculate Economic Impacts from Wind Projects

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    2009-02-26

    Brochure on the Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for calculating the economic impacts of wind development.

  12. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Models - About...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... materials, and locally manufactured powerplant components can have a significant ... Natural Gas Model Photovoltaics Model Transmission Line Model Wind Model Download JEDI ...

  13. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Models - About...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    gas supplied the power plant is procured from wells located in the region being analyzed? ... Natural Gas Model Photovoltaics Model Transmission Line Model Wind Model Download JEDI ...

  14. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model, National Renewable...

    Wind Powering America (EERE)

    project owners, and others interested in the economic impacts from new electricity generation projects. JEDI's user-friendly design allows novices to explore the statewide...

  15. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model (Fact Sheet), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Wind Powering America (EERE)

    JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the gross economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation, transmission, and biofuel plants at the state or national level. First developed by NREL's researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels and biopower, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power,

  16. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model (Fact Sheet), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the gross economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation, transmission, and biofuel plants at the state or national level. First developed by NREL's researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels and biopower, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power,

  17. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Models - Limitations...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Input-output models, including JEDI, apply historical ... pre-date the development of many renewable energy technologies. ... which account for pricing variability and labor ...

  18. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Models - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Webmaster Please enter your name and email address in the boxes provided, then type your message below. When you are finished, click "Send Message." NOTE: If you enter your e-mail address incorrectly, we will be unable to reply. Your name: Your email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version JEDI Home About JEDI Download JEDI Methodology Interpreting Results Advanced Users Limitations of JEDI Models Publications Contact Did you find what you needed? Yes 1 No 0 Thank you for

  19. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-12-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL's Wind Powering America program to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to biofuels, concentrating solar power, coal, and natural gas power plants. Based on project-specific and default inputs (derived from industry norms), JEDI estimates the number of jobs and economic impacts to a local area (usually a state) that could reasonably be supported by a power generation project. For example, JEDI estimates the number of in-state construction jobs from a new wind farm. This fact sheet provides an overview of the JEDI model as it pertains to wind energy projects.

  20. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2015-08-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL’s researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects.

  1. Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model: Offshore Wind User Reference Guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Goldberg, M.; Keyser, D.

    2013-06-01

    The Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model, developed by NREL and MRG & Associates, is a spreadsheet based input-output tool. JEDI is meant to be a user friendly and transparent tool to estimate potential economic impacts supported by the development and operation of offshore wind projects. This guide describes how to use the model as well as technical information such as methodology, limitations, and data sources.

  2. Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Billman, L.; Keyser, D.

    2013-08-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), use input-output methodology to estimate gross (not net) jobs and economic impacts of building and operating selected types of renewable electricity generation and fuel plants. This analysis provides the DOE with an assessment of the value, impact, and validity of the JEDI suite of models. While the models produce estimates of jobs, earnings, and economic output, this analysis focuses only on jobs estimates. This validation report includes an introduction to JEDI models, an analysis of the value and impact of the JEDI models, and an analysis of the validity of job estimates generated by JEDI model through comparison to other modeled estimates and comparison to empirical, observed jobs data as reported or estimated for a commercial project, a state, or a region.

  3. Transmission Line Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model User Reference Guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goldberg, M.; Keyser, D.

    2013-10-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), are freely available, user-friendly tools that estimate the potential economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation projects for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The Transmission Line JEDI model can be used to field questions about the economic impacts of transmission lines in a given state, region, or local community. This Transmission Line JEDI User Reference Guide was developed to provide basic instruction on operating the model and understanding the results. This guide also provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data contained in the model.

  4. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Models - Advanced...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    and local shares of spending. JEDI provides default data on land lease, sales and property tax revenues, when appropriate. Various ownership and financing structures can...

  5. Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) User Reference Guide: Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Y.; Goldberg, M.

    2015-02-01

    This guide -- the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model User Reference Guide -- was developed to assist users in operating and understanding the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model. The guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and data sources used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model estimates local (e.g., county- or state-level) job creation, earnings, and output from total economic activity for a given fast pyrolysis biorefinery. These estimates include the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the construction and operation phases of biorefinery projects.Local revenue and supply chain impacts as well as induced impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from the IMPLAN software program. By determining the local economic impacts and job creation for a proposed biorefinery, the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model can be used to field questions about the added value biorefineries might bring to a local community.

  6. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Models - Interpretin...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Operations-period results are long term, for the life of the project, and are reported as ... JEDI results are not intended to be a precise forecast; they are an estimate of potential ...

  7. Petroleum Refinery Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model User Reference Guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goldberg, M.

    2013-12-31

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), are user-friendly tools utilized to estimate the economic impacts at the local level of constructing and operating fuel and power generation projects for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The JEDI Petroleum Refinery Model User Reference Guide was developed to assist users in employing and understanding the model. This guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features, operation of the model, and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the model estimates job creation, earning and output (total economic activity) for a given petroleum refinery. This includes the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the refinery's construction and operation phases. Project cost and job data used in the model are derived from the most current cost estimations available. Local direct and indirect economic impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from IMPLAN software. By determining the regional economic impacts and job creation for a proposed refinery, the JEDI Petroleum Refinery model can be used to field questions about the added value refineries may bring to the local community.

  8. Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model Geothermal User Reference Guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, C.; Augustine, C.; Goldberg, M.

    2012-09-01

    The Geothermal Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), is an Excel-based user-friendly tools that estimates the economic impacts of constructing and operating hydrothermal and Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) power generation projects at the local level for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The JEDI Model Geothermal User Reference Guide was developed to assist users in using and understanding the model. This guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features, operation of the model, and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted.

  9. Scenario Jedi

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This document summarizes an overview of the Scenario Solar PV Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model work.

  10. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Models - About...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    development impacts from wind power generation projects. ... engineering, land easements, and permitting costs ... Model Transmission Line Model Wind Model Download ...

  11. Job and Economic Development Impact Models (JEDI) | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    and biofuel plants at the local and state levels. It comes as a separate model for wind, PV, natural gas, CSP, coal, and biofuels. Job's, earnings, and impact are outputs. Inputs...

  12. Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models L. Billman and D. Keyser National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-56390 August 2013 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at

  13. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Models - About...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Marine & Hydrokinetic Power Model Natural Gas Model Photovoltaics Model Transmission Line Model Wind Model Download ... Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, ...

  14. Job and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model: A User-Friendly Tool to Calculate Economic Impacts from Wind Projects; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sinclair, K.; Milligan, M.; Goldberg, M.

    2004-03-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy/National Renewable Energy Laboratory (DOE/NREL) has developed a spreadsheet-based wind model (Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI)) that incorporates economic multipliers for jobs, income, and output. Originally developed with state-specific parameters, it can also be used to conduct county and regional analyses. NREL has enlisted the Wind Powering America (WPA) State Wind Working Groups (SWWGs) to conduct county-specific economic impact analyses and has encouraged them to use JEDI if they do not have their own economic model. The objective of the analyses is to identify counties within WPA target states, and preferably counties with a significant agricultural sector, that could economically benefit from wind development. These counties could then explore opportunities to tap into the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Farm Bill Section 9006 grants and loans to stimulate wind development. This paper describes the JEDI model and how i t can be used. We will also summarize a series of analyses that were completed to fulfill a General Accounting Office (GAO) request to provide estimates of the economic development benefits of wind power.

  15. JEDI Marine and Hydrokinetic Model: User Reference Guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goldberg, M.; Previsic, M.

    2011-04-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model (JEDI) for Marine and Hydrokinetics (MHK) is a user-friendly spreadsheet-based tool designed to demonstrate the economic impacts associated with developing and operating MHK power systems in the United States. The JEDI MHK User Reference Guide was developed to assist users in using and understanding the model. This guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the sources and parameters used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features, operation of the model, and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted.

  16. JEDI Models | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    development. U.S. Department of Energy. (January 2014). Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Great Lakes Region. To better understand the employment opportunities...

  17. JEDI Marine and Hydrokinetic Model: User Reference Guide

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    JEDI Marine and Hydrokinetic Model: User Reference Guide Marshall Goldberg MRG & Associates Nevada City, California Mirko Previsic RE Vision Consulting Sacramento, California Subcontract Report NREL/SR-6A20-50402 April 2011 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard Golden, Colorado 80401 303-275-3000 *

  18. transcript_jedi_model.doc | Department of Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    document icon transcriptjedimodel.doc More Documents & Publications TAP Webcast Transcript July-29, 2009 Scenario Jedi Tools for Designing & Implementing Better Finance Programs

  19. WINDExchange: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models

    Wind Powering America (EERE)

    Deployment Activities Printable Version Bookmark and Share Regional Resource Centers Economic Development Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model Resources & Tools Siting Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model Fact Sheet PDF The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation at the local and state levels. Based on

  20. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model, National Renewable...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. National Renewable...

  1. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Models - Publication...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Renewable Energy 38, no. 1 (February 2012): 16-30. Hurlbut, D., S. Haase, G. Brinkman, K. Funk, R. Gelman, E. Lantz, C. Larney, D. Peterson, C. Worley, and E. Liebsch. 2012. Navajo ...

  2. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Models - About...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    both hydrothermal and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) power generation projects based on exploration and drilling activities, power plant construction, and ongoing operations. ...

  3. NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Models - Methodology

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    is not designed to provide a precise forecast, but rather an estimate of overall ... That is, dollars spent on a power generation project in a state, county or region are ...

  4. JEDI Helping Fight for Clean Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    We're not talking about the mythical knights from outer space, but these JEDI wield a special power, too.

  5. How to Estimate the Economic Impacts from Renewable Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    U.S. Department of Energy Technical Assistance Project (TAP) for state and local officials; Gail Mosey and Eric Lantz, National Renewable Energy Laboratory; Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Wind Model.

  6. Stakeholder Engagement and Outreach Webinar: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts of Offshore Wind

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Starting more than a year ago, NREL initiated work to expand the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model to include fixed-bottom offshore wind technology. Following the completion of the...

  7. Job and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model: A User-Friendly...

    Wind Powering America (EERE)

    other types of electricity-generating power plants) or replacement of existing power generation resources. Third, the analysis does not account for changes in electricity...

  8. Counting Jobs and Economic Impacts from Distributed Wind in the United States (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tegen, S.

    2014-05-01

    This conference poster describes the distributed wind Jobs and Economic Development Imapcts (JEDI) model. The goal of this work is to provide a model that estimates jobs and other economic effects associated with the domestic distributed wind industry. The distributed wind JEDI model is a free input-output model that estimates employment and other impacts resulting from an investment in distributed wind installations. Default inputs are from installers and industry experts and are based on existing projects. User input can be minimal (use defaults) or very detailed for more precise results. JEDI can help evaluate potential scenarios, current or future; inform stakeholders and decision-makers; assist businesses in evaluating economic development impacts and estimating jobs; assist government organizations with planning and evaluating and developing communities.

  9. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tegen, S.; Keyser, D.; Flores-Espino, F.; Miles, J.; Zammit, D.; Loomis, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

  10. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact: Four Regional Scenarios (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tegen, S.

    2014-11-01

    NREL's Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for Offshore Wind, is a computer tool for studying the economic impacts of fixed-bottom offshore wind projects in the United States. This presentation provides the results of an analysis of four offshore wind development scenarios in the Southeast Atlantic, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico regions.

  11. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore wind deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic.

  12. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... of fixed-bottom technologies. The current JEDI model does not accommodate floating offshore wind turbine systems. ... Maryland Michigan Florida South Carolina Delaware ...

  13. New DOE Modeling Tool Estimates Economic Benefits of Offshore Wind Plants

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    To help developers more readily estimate the economic benefits of offshore wind plants, DOE recently released a new version of the Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) input-output modeling tool. The original tool was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to estimate the economic impacts of constructing renewable power plants. The updated version allows users to better understand the potential regional economic impacts of offshore wind development.

  14. How Many Jobs are there in the Domestic Small Wind Industry? (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tegen, S.

    2013-07-01

    This poster introduces the preliminary small wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model.

  15. JEDI II: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts from Coal, Naural...

    Wind Powering America (EERE)

    new coal, gas, or wind plant: * Year of installation * Size of the project * Location * Cost (kW) * Any other site-specific information The more information the user provides,...

  16. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Mid-Atlantic Region (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Keyser, D.; Tegen, S.; Flores, F.; Zammit, D.; Kraemer, M.; Miles, J.

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts for the Mid-Atlantic region.

  17. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Great Lakes Region (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tegen, S.; Keyser, D.

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts identified by the study for the Great Lakes region.

  18. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Gulf of Mexico Region (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Flores, F.; Keyser, D.; Tegen, S.

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts for the Gulf of Mexico region.

  19. Impact-GMI Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2007-03-22

    IMPACT-GMI is an atmospheric chemical transport model designed to run on massively parallel computers. It is designed to model trace pollutants in the atmosphere. It includes models for emission, chemistry and deposition of pollutants. It can be used to assess air quality and its impact on future climate change.

  20. Preliminary Analysis of the Jobs and Economic Impacts of Renewable Energy Projects Supported by the §1603Treasury Grant Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steinberg, Daniel; Porro, Gian; Goldberg, Marshall

    2012-04-01

    This analysis responds to a request from the Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to estimate the direct and indirect jobs and economic impacts of projects supported by the §1603 Treasury grant program. The analysis employs the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models to estimate the gross jobs, earnings, and economic output supported by the construction and operation of the large wind (greater than 1 MW) and solar photovoltaic (PV) projects funded by the §1603 grant program.

  1. Preliminary Analysis of the Jobs and Economic Impacts of Renewable Energy Projects Supported by the ..Section..1603 Treasury Grant Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steinberg, D.; Porro, G.; Goldberg, M.

    2012-04-01

    This analysis responds to a request from the Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to estimate the direct and indirect jobs and economic impacts of projects supported by the Section 1603 Treasury grant program. The analysis employs the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models to estimate the gross jobs, earnings, and economic output supported by the construction and operation of the large wind (greater than 1 MW) and solar photovoltaic (PV) projects funded by the Section 1603 grant program.

  2. Preliminary Analysis of the Jobs and Economic Impacts of Renewable Energy Projects Supported by the §1603 Treasury Grant Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steinberg, Daniel; Porro, Gian; Goldberg, Marshall

    2012-04-09

    This analysis responds to a request from the Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to estimate the direct and indirect jobs and economic impacts of projects supported by the §1603 Treasury grant program. The analysis employs the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models to estimate the gross jobs, earnings, and economic output supported by the construction and operation of the large wind (greater than 1 MW) and solar photovoltaic (PV) projects funded by the §1603 grant program.

  3. New Model Demonstrates Offshore Wind Industry's Job Growth Potential...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and number of jobs associated with fixed-bottom offshore wind development, applies to ... The fixed-bottom offshore wind JEDI is one of several user-friendly NREL models that ...

  4. Economic Impacts from Indiana's First 1,000 Megawatts of Wind Power

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tegen, S.; Keyser, D.; Flores-Espino, F.; Hauser, R.

    2014-08-01

    The magnitude of Indiana's available wind resource indicates that the development of wind power infrastructure has the potential to support millions of dollars of economic activity in the state. The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, are tools used to estimate some of the economic impacts of energy projects at the state level. JEDI calculates results in the form of jobs, earnings, and economic output in three categories: project development and onsite labor, local revenue and supply chain, and induced impacts. According to this analysis, the first 1,000 MW of wind power development in Indiana (projects built between 2008 and 2011): supported employment totaling more than 4,400 full-time-equivalent jobs in Indiana during the construction periods; supports approximately 260 ongoing Indiana jobs; supported nearly $570 million in economic activity for Indiana during the construction periods; supported and continues to support nearly $40 million in annual Indiana economic activity during the operating periods; generates more than $8 million in annual property taxes; generates nearly $4 million annually in income for Indiana landowners who lease their land for wind energy projects.

  5. Energy Policy Socioeconomic Impact Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1993-05-13

    Econometric model simulates consumer demand response to residential demand-side management programs and two-part tariff electricity rate designs and assesses their economic impact on various population groups.

  6. Customer Prepay Impact Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Instructions for Use Inputs 1. To use this model, you will need to unprotect the workbook, by going to Select "Unprotect Workbook", and enter the password "bpa". 2. The Input...

  7. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Southeast Region (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2013-07-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts identified by the study for the Southeast (defined here as Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia).

  8. Decision Impact Assessment Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1991-08-01

    DIAMOND represents the decision-making environment that utility planners and executives face. Users interact with the model after every year or two of simulation, which provides an opportunity to modify past decisions as well as to make new decisions. For example, construction of a power plant can be started one year, and if circumstances change, the plant can be accelerated, mothballed, cancelled, or continued as originally planned. Similarly, the marketing and financial incentives for demand-side managementmore » programs can be changed from year to year. This frequent user interaction with the model, an operational game, should build greater understanding and insights among utility planners about the risks associated with different types of resources.« less

  9. MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    MARKAL website1 Related Tools Global Trade and Analysis Project (GTAP) Model Gold Standard Program Model Job and Economic Development Impact Models (JEDI) ... further...

  10. Preliminary Analysis of the Jobs and Economic Impacts of 1603 Treasury Grant Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This analysis responds to a request from the Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (DOE-EERE) to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to estimate the direct and indirect jobs and economic impacts of projects supported by the §1603 Treasury grant program. The analysis employs the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models to estimate the gross jobs, earnings, and economic output supported by the construction and operation of solar photovoltaic (PV) and large wind (greater than 1 MW) projects funded by the §1603 grant program. Through November 10, 2011, the §1603 grant program has provided approximately $9.0 billion in funds to over 23,000 PV and large wind projects, comprising 13.5 GW of electric generating capacity.

  11. NREL: State and Local Governments - DIY Solar Market Analysis...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Scenario Solar PV Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model Top Solar Tools: What are they and how do they help policymakers? Solar Resource and Technical Potential: ...

  12. Bike-Sharing:History, Impacts, Models of Provision, and Future...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Bike-Sharing:History, Impacts, Models of Provision, and Future Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Bike-Sharing:History, Impacts, Models of Provision, and...

  13. MODARIA: Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessment...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    MODARIA: Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessment Context and Overview MODARIA: Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessment Context and Overview Presentation...

  14. IMPACT Project Integrated Modeling of Perturbations in Atmospheres...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    IMPACT Project Integrated Modeling of Perturbations in Atmospheres for Conjunction ... Citation Details In-Document Search Title: IMPACT Project Integrated Modeling of ...

  15. FAO-Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change (MOSAICC) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: FAO-Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of...

  16. Modeling the Impact of Carbon Dioxide Leakage into an Unconfined...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    the Impact of Carbon Dioxide Leakage into an Unconfined, Oxidizing Carbonate Aquifer Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling the Impact of Carbon Dioxide Leakage ...

  17. Impacts of contaminant storage on indoor air quality: Model developmen...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: Impacts of contaminant storage on indoor air quality: Model development Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Impacts of contaminant storage on indoor air...

  18. Climate Impact of Transportation A Model Comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Girod, Bastien; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Grahn, Maria; Kitous, Alban; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page

    2013-06-01

    Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO2 emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and CO2 emissions of five different global transport models using harmonized input assumptions on income and population. For four models we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax. All models project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology is important for limiting energy consumption and CO2 emissions, but quite radical changes in the technology mix are required to stabilize or reverse the trend. While all models project liquid fossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax of US$200/tCO2 in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate room for improvement in modeling and empirical description of the transport system.

  19. Variables Affecting Economic Development of Wind Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Tegen, S.

    2008-07-01

    NREL's JEDI Wind model performed an analysis of wind-power-related economic development drivers. Economic development benefits for wind and coal were estimated using NREL's JEDI Wind and JEDI Coal models.

  20. Concept:U.S. National Software Tools | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    In My Backyard Innovative Feed-In Tariff Designs that Limit Policy Costs Introduction to Hydrogen for Code Officials J Job and Economic Development Impact Models (JEDI) L LEDS...

  1. Posters Radiation Impacts on Global Climate Models F. Baer, N...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Posters Radiation Impacts on Global Climate Models F. Baer, N. Arsky, and K. Rocque ... Heating Rates Generated from Longwave Radiation Algorithms LWR algorithms calculate ...

  2. Climate Change Impact Valuation Models Revisited | U.S. DOE Office...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Climate Change Impact Valuation Models Revisited Biological and Environmental Research ... Climate Change Impact Valuation Models Revisited Valuing diverse climate impacts in ...

  3. Computable General Equilibrium Models for Sustainability Impact...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Publications, Softwaremodeling tools User Interface: Other Website: iatools.jrc.ec.europa.eudocsecolecon2006.pdf Computable General Equilibrium Models for Sustainability...

  4. PACKAGE IMPACT MODELS AS A PRECURSOR TO CLADDING ANALYSIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Klymyshyn, Nicholas A.; Adkins, Harold E.; Bajwa, Christopher S.; Piotter, Jason

    2013-02-01

    The evaluation of spent nuclear fuel storage casks and transportation packages under impact loading is an important safety topic that is reviewed as part of cask and package certification by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Explicit dynamic finite element models of full systems are increasingly common in industry for determining structural integrity during hypothetical drop accidents. Full cask and package model results are also used as the loading basis for single fuel pin impact models, which evaluate the response of fuel cladding under drop conditions. In this paper, a simplified package system is evaluated to illustrate several important structural dynamic phenomena, including the effect of gaps between components, the difference in local response at various points on a package during impact, and the effect of modeling various simplified representations of the basket and fuel assemblies. This paper focuses on the package impact analysis, and how loading conditions for a subsequent fuel assembly or fuel cladding analysis can be extracted.

  5. The impact of ARM on climate modeling

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Randall, David A.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Donner, Lee J.; Collins, William D.; Klein, Stephen A.

    2016-07-15

    Climate models are among humanity’s most ambitious and elaborate creations. They are designed to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and cryosphere on time scales far beyond the limits of deterministic predictability and including the effects of time-dependent external forcings. The processes involved include radiative transfer, fluid dynamics, microphysics, and some aspects of geochemistry, biology, and ecology. The models explicitly simulate processes on spatial scales ranging from the circumference of Earth down to 100 km or smaller and implicitly include the effects of processes on even smaller scales down to a micron or so. In addition, themore » atmospheric component of a climate model can be called an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM).« less

  6. Fuel dispersal modeling for aircraft-runway impact scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tieszen, S.R.

    1995-11-01

    A fuel dispersal model for C-141 transport accidents was developed for the Defense Nuclear Agency`s Fuel Fire Technology Base Program to support Weapon System Safety Assessments. The spectrum of accidents resulting from aircraft impact on a runway was divided into three fuel dispersal regimes: low, intermediate, and high-velocity impact. Sufficient data existed in the accident, crash test, and fuel-filled bomb literature to support development of a qualitative framework for dispersal models, but not quantitative models for all regimes. Therefore, a test series at intermediate scale was conducted to generate data on which to base the model for the high-velocity regime. Tests were conducted over an impact velocity range from 12 m/s to 91 m/s and angles of impact from 22.5{degrees} to 67.5{degrees}. Dependent variables were area covered by dispersed fuel, amount of mass in that area, and location of the area relative to the impact line. Test results showed that no liquid pooling occurred for impact velocities greater than 61 m/s, independent of the angle of impact. Some pooling did occur at lower velocities, but in no test was the liquid-layer thickness greater than 5.25 mm.

  7. Modeling Momentum Transfer from Kinetic Impacts: Implications for Redirecting Asteroids

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stickle, A. M.; Atchison, J. A.; Barnouin, O. S.; Cheng, A. F.; Crawford, D. A.; Ernst, C. M.; Fletcher, Z.; Rivkin, A. S.

    2015-05-19

    Kinetic impactors are one way to deflect a potentially hazardous object headed for Earth. The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission is designed to test the effectiveness of this approach and is a joint effort between NASA and ESA. The NASA-led portion is the Double Asteroid Redirect Test (DART) and is composed of a ~300-kg spacecraft designed to impact the moon of the binary system 65803 Didymos. The deflection of the moon will be measured by the ESA-led Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) (which will characterize the moon) and from ground-based observations. Because the material properties and internal structure of the target are poorly constrained, however, analytical models and numerical simulations must be used to understand the range of potential outcomes. Here, we describe a modeling effort combining analytical models and CTH simulations to determine possible outcomes of the DART impact. We examine a wide parameter space and provide predictions for crater size, ejecta mass, and momentum transfer following the impact into the moon of the Didymos system. For impacts into “realistic” asteroid types, these models produce craters with diameters on the order of 10 m, an imparted Δv of 0.5–2 mm/s and a momentum enhancement of 1.07 to 5 for a highly porous aggregate to a fully dense rock.

  8. Modeling Momentum Transfer from Kinetic Impacts: Implications for Redirecting Asteroids

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Stickle, A. M.; Atchison, J. A.; Barnouin, O. S.; Cheng, A. F.; Crawford, D. A.; Ernst, C. M.; Fletcher, Z.; Rivkin, A. S.

    2015-05-19

    Kinetic impactors are one way to deflect a potentially hazardous object headed for Earth. The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission is designed to test the effectiveness of this approach and is a joint effort between NASA and ESA. The NASA-led portion is the Double Asteroid Redirect Test (DART) and is composed of a ~300-kg spacecraft designed to impact the moon of the binary system 65803 Didymos. The deflection of the moon will be measured by the ESA-led Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) (which will characterize the moon) and from ground-based observations. Because the material properties and internal structure ofmore » the target are poorly constrained, however, analytical models and numerical simulations must be used to understand the range of potential outcomes. Here, we describe a modeling effort combining analytical models and CTH simulations to determine possible outcomes of the DART impact. We examine a wide parameter space and provide predictions for crater size, ejecta mass, and momentum transfer following the impact into the moon of the Didymos system. For impacts into “realistic” asteroid types, these models produce craters with diameters on the order of 10 m, an imparted Δv of 0.5–2 mm/s and a momentum enhancement of 1.07 to 5 for a highly porous aggregate to a fully dense rock.« less

  9. An introduction to the COALTOWN impact assessment model. Staff report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bender, L.D.; Temple, G.S.; Parcels, L.C.

    1980-04-01

    The report is a layman's description of the COALTOWN simulation model. COALTOWN simulates future employment, population, wages, migration, state and local tax receipts and intergovernmental transfers, and local government expenditures for counties in Montana, Wyoming, and North Dakota. It is designed to assess impacts of energy projects. Input data and output formats and uses of the model are described. The predictive accuracy of the estimated equations and the model limitations and shortcomings are cited.

  10. Verification of constitutive models using the Asay Impact Test

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haberman, K.S.; Bennett, J.G.

    1998-09-01

    Accurate analysis and the ability to predict the complete response of particulate composite materials requires accurate inelastic constitutive models. However, to be of maximum utility, these inelastic models must be validated using quantifiable experimental results. The Asay Impact Test is an impact experiment that provides the evolution of the two dimensional in-plane displacement field in a specimen undergoing dynamic inelastic deformation. The experimental displacement field may be directed compared with the predicted displacement field from a candidate inelastic constitutive model. In this paper, the authors report comparisons between experimental and predicted displacement fields in the energetic particulate composite material PBX-9501 during dynamic deformation, and describe the experiment and the constitutive modeling approach.

  11. Posters The Impacts of Data Error and Model Resolution

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    7 Posters The Impacts of Data Error and Model Resolution on the Result of Variational Data Assimilation S. Yang and Q. Xu Cooperative Institute of Mesoscale Meteorological Studies University of Oklahoma Norman, Oklahoma Introduction The representativeness and accuracy of the measurements or estimates of the lateral boundary fluxes and surface fluxes are crucial for the single-column model and budget studies of climatic variables over Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites. Since the

  12. Theoretical model for plasma expansion generated by hypervelocity impact

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ju, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Qingming Zhang, Dongjiang; Long, Renrong; Chen, Li; Huang, Fenglei; Gong, Zizheng

    2014-09-15

    The hypervelocity impact experiments of spherical LY12 aluminum projectile diameter of 6.4?mm on LY12 aluminum target thickness of 23?mm have been conducted using a two-stage light gas gun. The impact velocity of the projectile is 5.2, 5.7, and 6.3?km/s, respectively. The experimental results show that the plasma phase transition appears under the current experiment conditions, and the plasma expansion consists of accumulation, equilibrium, and attenuation. The plasma characteristic parameters decrease as the plasma expands outward and are proportional with the third power of the impact velocity, i.e., (T{sub e}, n{sub e})???v{sub p}{sup 3}. Based on the experimental results, a theoretical model on the plasma expansion is developed and the theoretical results are consistent with the experimental data.

  13. Numerical Modeling of Impact Initiation of High Explosives

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, C J; Piggott, T; Yoh, J; Reaugh, J

    2006-05-31

    We performed continuum mechanics simulations to examine the behavior of energetic materials in Ballistic Chamber Impact (BIC) experiments, using an Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian code (ALE3D). Our simulations revealed that interface friction plays an important role in inducing the formation of shear bands, which result in 'hot spots' for ignition. The temperature localization during BIC impact was found to be significant in materials with high yield strength. In those materials, there are multiple locations inside shear bands can achieve temperatures exceeding the threshold temperature for reaction. In addition, we investigated the relevant parameters influencing the pressure profile of a BIC test by numerical analysis from a simple phenomenological model. To our surprise, we found that the peaks of BIC pressure profiles not only can be a result of multi-center chemical reactions, but can also arise from factors associated apparatus configuration.

  14. Modeling the dynamic crush of impact mitigating materials

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Logan, R.W.; McMichael, L.D.

    1995-05-12

    Crushable materials are commonly utilized in the design of structural components to absorb energy and mitigate shock during the dynamic impact of a complex structure, such as an automobile chassis or drum-type shipping container. The development and application of several finite-element material models which have been developed at various times at LLNL for DYNA3D will be discussed. Between the models, they are able to account for several of the predominant mechanisms which typically influence the dynamic mechanical behavior of crushable materials. One issue we addressed was that no single existing model would account for the entire gambit of constitutive features which are important for crushable materials. Thus, we describe the implementation and use of an additional material model which attempts to provide a more comprehensive model of the mechanics of crushable material behavior. This model combines features of the pre-existing DYNA models and incorporates some new features as well in an invariant large-strain formulation. In addition to examining the behavior of a unit cell in uniaxial compression, two cases were chosen to evaluate the capabilities and accuracy of the various material models in DYNA. In the first case, a model for foam filled box beams was developed and compared to test data from a 4-point bend test. The model was subsequently used to study its effectiveness in energy absorption in an aluminum extrusion, spaceframe, vehicle chassis. The second case examined the response of the AT-400A shipping container and the performance of the overpack material during accident environments selected from 10CFR71 and IAEA regulations.

  15. Impact

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Impact of Modeling Approach on Flutter Predictions for Very Large Wind Turbine Blade Designs Brian C. Owens bcowens@sandia.gov Graduate Student Intern Wind Energy Technologies Department Sandia National Laboratories ∗ Albuquerque, New Mexico, U.S.A. D. Todd Griffith dgriffi@sandia.gov Principal Member of Technical Staff Wind Energy Technologies Department Sandia National Laboratories ∗ Albuquerque, New Mexico, U.S.A. Brian R. Resor brresor@sandia.gov Senior Member of Technical Staff Wind

  16. Analyzing the impact of modeling choices and assumptions in compartmental epidemiological models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nutaro, James J.; Pullum, Laura L.; Ramanathan, Arvind; Ozmen, Ozgur

    2016-05-01

    In this study, computational models have become increasingly used as part of modeling, predicting, and understanding how infectious diseases spread within large populations. These models can be broadly classified into differential equation-based models (EBM) and agent-based models (ABM). Both types of models are central in aiding public health officials design intervention strategies in case of large epidemic outbreaks. We examine these models in the context of illuminating their hidden assumptions and the impact these may have on the model outcomes. Very few ABM/EBMs are evaluated for their suitability to address a particular public health concern, and drawing relevant conclusions aboutmore » their suitability requires reliable and relevant information regarding the different modeling strategies and associated assumptions. Hence, there is a need to determine how the different modeling strategies, choices of various parameters, and the resolution of information for EBMs and ABMs affect outcomes, including predictions of disease spread. In this study, we present a quantitative analysis of how the selection of model types (i.e., EBM vs. ABM), the underlying assumptions that are enforced by model types to model the disease propagation process, and the choice of time advance (continuous vs. discrete) affect the overall outcomes of modeling disease spread. Our study reveals that the magnitude and velocity of the simulated epidemic depends critically on the selection of modeling principles, various assumptions of disease process, and the choice of time advance.« less

  17. Forming chondrules in impact splashes. I. Radiative cooling model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dullemond, Cornelis Petrus; Stammler, Sebastian Markus; Johansen, Anders

    2014-10-10

    The formation of chondrules is one of the oldest unsolved mysteries in meteoritics and planet formation. Recently an old idea has been revived: the idea that chondrules form as a result of collisions between planetesimals in which the ejected molten material forms small droplets that solidify to become chondrules. Pre-melting of the planetesimals by radioactive decay of {sup 26}Al would help produce sprays of melt even at relatively low impact velocity. In this paper we study the radiative cooling of a ballistically expanding spherical cloud of chondrule droplets ejected from the impact site. We present results from numerical radiative transfer models as well as analytic approximate solutions. We find that the temperature after the start of the expansion of the cloud remains constant for a time t {sub cool} and then drops with time t approximately as T ≅ T {sub 0}[(3/5)t/t {sub cool} + 2/5]{sup –5/3} for t > t {sub cool}. The time at which this temperature drop starts t {sub cool} depends via an analytical formula on the mass of the cloud, the expansion velocity, and the size of the chondrule. During the early isothermal expansion phase the density is still so high that we expect the vapor of volatile elements to saturate so that no large volatile losses are expected.

  18. No-Impact Threshold Values for NRAP's Reduced Order Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Last, George V.; Murray, Christopher J.; Brown, Christopher F.; Jordan, Preston D.; Sharma, Maneesh

    2013-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop methodologies for establishing baseline datasets and statistical protocols for determining statistically significant changes between background concentrations and predicted concentrations that would be used to represent a contamination plume in the Gen II models being developed by NRAP’s Groundwater Protection team. The initial effort examined selected portions of two aquifer systems; the urban shallow-unconfined aquifer system of the Edwards-Trinity Aquifer System (being used to develop the ROM for carbon-rock aquifers, and the a portion of the High Plains Aquifer (an unconsolidated and semi-consolidated sand and gravel aquifer, being used to development the ROM for sandstone aquifers). Threshold values were determined for Cd, Pb, As, pH, and TDS that could be used to identify contamination due to predicted impacts from carbon sequestration storage reservoirs, based on recommendations found in the EPA’s ''Unified Guidance for Statistical Analysis of Groundwater Monitoring Data at RCRA Facilities'' (US Environmental Protection Agency 2009). Results from this effort can be used to inform a ''no change'' scenario with respect to groundwater impacts, rather than the use of an MCL that could be significantly higher than existing concentrations in the aquifer.

  19. The Impact of Spatial Resolution on Model-Derived Radiative Heating

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Impact of Spatial Resolution on Model-Derived Radiative Heating W. O'Hirok and C. Gautier Institute for Computational Earth System Science University of California Santa Barbara, ...

  20. Reduced-Order Model for the Geochemical Impacts of Carbon Dioxide...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Reduced-Order Model for the Geochemical Impacts of Carbon Dioxide, Brine and Trace Metal Leakage into an Unconfined, Oxidizing Carbonate Aquifer, Version 2.1 Citation Details...

  1. DOE Updates JOBS and Economic Impacts of Fuel Cells (JOBS FC1.1) Model |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Updates JOBS and Economic Impacts of Fuel Cells (JOBS FC1.1) Model DOE Updates JOBS and Economic Impacts of Fuel Cells (JOBS FC1.1) Model Download the presentation slides from the Fuel Cell Technologies Program webinar, "DOE Updates JOBS and Economic Impacts of Fuel Cells (JOBS FC1.1) Model," held on December 11, 2012. DOE Updates JOBS and Economic Impacts of Fuel Cells (JOBS FC1.1) Model Webinar Slides (1.01 MB) More Documents & Publications JOBS FC 1.0

  2. Hybrid LCA model for assessing the embodied environmental impacts of buildings in South Korea

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jang, Minho; Hong, Taehoon; Ji, Changyoon

    2015-01-15

    The assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings can help decision-makers plan environment-friendly buildings and reduce environmental impacts. For a more comprehensive assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings, a hybrid life cycle assessment model was developed in this study. The developed model can assess the embodied environmental impacts (global warming, ozone layer depletion, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical ozone creation, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity) generated directly and indirectly in the material manufacturing, transportation, and construction phases. To demonstrate the application and validity of the developed model, the environmental impacts of an elementary school building were assessed using the developed model and compared with the results of a previous model used in a case study. The embodied environmental impacts from the previous model were lower than those from the developed model by 4.6–25.2%. Particularly, human toxicity potential (13 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) calculated by the previous model was much lower (1965 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) than what was calculated by the developed model. The results indicated that the developed model can quantify the embodied environmental impacts of buildings more comprehensively, and can be used by decision-makers as a tool for selecting environment-friendly buildings. - Highlights: • The model was developed to assess the embodied environmental impacts of buildings. • The model evaluates GWP, ODP, AP, EP, POCP, ADP, and HTP as environmental impacts. • The model presents more comprehensive results than the previous model by 4.6–100%. • The model can present the HTP of buildings, which the previous models cannot do. • Decision-makers can use the model for selecting environment-friendly buildings.

  3. Modeling the Global Trade and Environmental Impacts of Biofuel...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Trade and Environmental Impacts of Biofuel Policies AgencyCompany Organization: International Food Policy Research Institute Sector: Energy Focus Area: Biomass Topics:...

  4. Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Done, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka

    2012-06-01

    Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are presented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices. Capsule: "Combining dynamical modeling of high-impact weather using traditional regional climate models with statistical techniques allows for comprehensive sampling of the full distribution, uncertainty estimation, direct assessment of impacts, and increased confidence in future changes."

  5. Impact of aerosol size representation on modeling aerosol-cloud...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Impact of aerosol size representation on ... OSTI Identifier: 15003527 Report Number(s): PNWD-SA--5600 Journal ID: ISSN 0148-0227 ...

  6. Model Examines Cumulative Impacts of Wind Energy Development on the Greater

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Sage-Grouse | Department of Energy Model Examines Cumulative Impacts of Wind Energy Development on the Greater Sage-Grouse Model Examines Cumulative Impacts of Wind Energy Development on the Greater Sage-Grouse March 31, 2014 - 11:34am Addthis Photo of a sage grouse. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Argonne National Laboratory developed a spatially explicit individual-based model for examining the cumulative impacts of wind energy development on populations and habitats of the greater

  7. Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Done, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka

    2013-10-19

    Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are resented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices.

  8. Impacts of contaminant storage on indoor air quality: Model developmen...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    of airborne chemical species by building materials and furnishings in the indoor environment. The model is applied to describe the interaction between formaldehyde in building...

  9. Modeling cadmium fate at Superfund site: Impact of bioturbation...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Volume: 119:3 Country of Publication: United States Language: English Subject: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; ... CALIBRATION; ESTUARIES; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; REMEDIAL ...

  10. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... There can be any number of changes in a dynamic economy that JEDI does not consider, so these future results should not be considered a forecast. They simply reflect how a project ...

  11. Reduced-Order Model for the Geochemical Impacts of Carbon Dioxide...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Reduced-Order Model for the Geochemical Impacts of Carbon Dioxide, Brine and Trace Metal Leakage into an Unconfined, Oxidizing Carbonate Aquifer, Version 2.1 Bacon, Diana H. carbon...

  12. Input-output model for MACCS nuclear accident impacts estimation¹

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Outkin, Alexander V.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Vargas, Vanessa N

    2015-01-27

    Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.

  13. Argonne National Laboratory Develops New Model to Quantify the Impacts of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Variable Energy Resources on Generation Expansion and System Reliability | Department of Energy Argonne National Laboratory Develops New Model to Quantify the Impacts of Variable Energy Resources on Generation Expansion and System Reliability Argonne National Laboratory Develops New Model to Quantify the Impacts of Variable Energy Resources on Generation Expansion and System Reliability September 16, 2015 - 6:45pm Addthis The penetration level of variable energy resources, such as wind and

  14. Computational modeling of electrostatic charge and fields produced by hypervelocity impact

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crawford, David A.

    2015-05-19

    Following prior experimental evidence of electrostatic charge separation, electric and magnetic fields produced by hypervelocity impact, we have developed a model of electrostatic charge separation based on plasma sheath theory and implemented it into the CTH shock physics code. Preliminary assessment of the model shows good qualitative and quantitative agreement between the model and prior experiments at least in the hypervelocity regime for the porous carbonate material tested. The model agrees with the scaling analysis of experimental data performed in the prior work, suggesting that electric charge separation and the resulting electric and magnetic fields can be a substantial effect at larger scales, higher impact velocities, or both.

  15. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Dale, V. H.; Rauscher, H. M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  16. Modeling of fracture of protective concrete structures under impact loads

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Radchenko, P. A. Batuev, S. P.; Radchenko, A. V.; Plevkov, V. S.

    2015-10-27

    This paper presents results of numerical simulation of interaction between a Boeing 747-400 aircraft and the protective shell of a nuclear power plant. The shell is presented as a complex multilayered cellular structure consisting of layers of concrete and fiber concrete bonded with steel trusses. Numerical simulation was performed three-dimensionally using the original algorithm and software taking into account algorithms for building grids of complex geometric objects and parallel computations. Dynamics of the stress-strain state and fracture of the structure were studied. Destruction is described using a two-stage model that allows taking into account anisotropy of elastic and strength properties of concrete and fiber concrete. It is shown that wave processes initiate destruction of the cellular shell structure; cells start to destruct in an unloading wave originating after the compression wave arrival at free cell surfaces.

  17. Impact of heterogeneous chemistry on model predictions of ozone changes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Granier, C.; Brasseur, G. )

    1992-11-20

    A two-dimensional chemical/transport model of the middle atmosphere is used to assess the importance of chemical heterogeneous processes in the polar regions (on polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs)) and at other latitudes (on sulfate aerosols). When conversion on type I and type II PSCs of N[sub 2]O[sub 5] into HNO[sub 3] and of CIONO[sub 2] into reactive forms of chlorine is taken into account, enhanced CIO concentrations lead to the formation of a springtime ozone hole over the Antarctic continent; no such major reduction in the ozone column is found in the Arctic region. When conversion of nitrogen and chlorine compounds is assumed to occur on sulfate particles in the lower stratosphere, significant perturbations in the chemistry are also found. For background aerosol conditions, the concentration of nitric acid is enhanced and agrees with observed values, while that of nitrogen oxides is reduced and agrees less than if heterogeneous processes are ignored in the calculations. The concentration of the OH radical is significantly increased. Ozone number density appears to become larger between 16 and 30 km but smaller below 16 km, especially at high latitudes. The ozone column is only slightly modified, except at high latitudes where it is substantially reduced if the CIONO[sub 2] conversion into reactive chlorine is considered. After a large volcanic eruption these changes are further exacerbated. The ozone budget in the lower stratrosphere becomes less affected by nitrogen oxides but is largely controlled by the CIO[sub x] and HO[sub x] chemistries. A substantial decrease in the ozone column is predicted as a result of the Pinatubo volcanic eruption, mostly in winter at middle and high latitudes. 62 refs., 18 figs., 3 tabs.

  18. Modeling In-stream Tidal Energy Extraction and Its Potential Environmental Impacts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Copping, Andrea; Geerlofs, Simon H.

    2014-09-30

    In recent years, there has been growing interest in harnessing in-stream tidal energy in response to concerns of increasing energy demand and to mitigate climate change impacts. While many studies have been conducted to assess and map tidal energy resources, efforts for quantifying the associated potential environmental impacts have been limited. This paper presents the development of a tidal turbine module within a three-dimensional unstructured-grid coastal ocean model and its application for assessing the potential environmental impacts associated with tidal energy extraction. The model is used to investigate in-stream tidal energy extraction and associated impacts on estuarine hydrodynamic and biological processes in a tidally dominant estuary. A series of numerical experiments with varying numbers and configurations of turbines installed in an idealized estuary were carried out to assess the changes in the hydrodynamics and biological processes due to tidal energy extraction. Model results indicated that a large number of turbines are required to extract the maximum tidal energy and cause significant reduction of the volume flux. Preliminary model results also indicate that extraction of tidal energy increases vertical mixing and decreases flushing rate in a stratified estuary. The tidal turbine model was applied to simulate tidal energy extraction in Puget Sound, a large fjord-like estuary in the Pacific Northwest coast.

  19. Computational modeling of electrostatic charge and fields produced by hypervelocity impact

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Crawford, David A.

    2015-05-19

    Following prior experimental evidence of electrostatic charge separation, electric and magnetic fields produced by hypervelocity impact, we have developed a model of electrostatic charge separation based on plasma sheath theory and implemented it into the CTH shock physics code. Preliminary assessment of the model shows good qualitative and quantitative agreement between the model and prior experiments at least in the hypervelocity regime for the porous carbonate material tested. The model agrees with the scaling analysis of experimental data performed in the prior work, suggesting that electric charge separation and the resulting electric and magnetic fields can be a substantial effectmore » at larger scales, higher impact velocities, or both.« less

  20. New Model Examines Cumulative Impacts of Wind Energy Development on Sensitive Species

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE's Argonne National Laboratory recently developed the prototype of a spatially explicit individual-based model for examining the cumulative impacts of wind energy development on populations and habitats of the greater sage grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—an important wildlife species that has been affected by energy development in the western United States.

  1. Reduced order models for prediction of groundwater quality impacts from CO? and brine leakage

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zheng, Liange; Carroll, Susan; Bianchi, Marco; Mansoor, Kayyum; Sun, Yunwei; Birkholzer, Jens

    2014-12-31

    A careful assessment of the risk associated with geologic CO? storage is critical to the deployment of large-scale storage projects. A potential risk is the deterioration of groundwater quality caused by the leakage of CO? and brine leakage from deep subsurface reservoirs. In probabilistic risk assessment studies, numerical modeling is the primary tool employed to assess risk. However, the application of traditional numerical models to fully evaluate the impact of CO? leakage on groundwater can be computationally complex, demanding large processing times and resources, and involving large uncertainties. As an alternative, reduced order models (ROMs) can be used as highly efficient surrogates for the complex process-based numerical models. In this study, we represent the complex hydrogeological and geochemical conditions in a heterogeneous aquifer and subsequent risk by developing and using two separate ROMs. The first ROM is derived from a model that accounts for the heterogeneous flow and transport conditions in the presence of complex leakage functions for CO? and brine. The second ROM is obtained from models that feature similar, but simplified flow and transport conditions, and allow for a more complex representation of all relevant geochemical reactions. To quantify possible impacts to groundwater aquifers, the basic risk metric is taken as the aquifer volume in which the water quality of the aquifer may be affected by an underlying CO? storage project. The integration of the two ROMs provides an estimate of the impacted aquifer volume taking into account uncertainties in flow, transport and chemical conditions. These two ROMs can be linked in a comprehensive system level model for quantitative risk assessment of the deep storage reservoir, wellbore leakage, and shallow aquifer impacts to assess the collective risk of CO? storage projects.

  2. Reduced order models for prediction of groundwater quality impacts from CO₂ and brine leakage

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zheng, Liange; Carroll, Susan; Bianchi, Marco; Mansoor, Kayyum; Sun, Yunwei; Birkholzer, Jens

    2014-12-31

    A careful assessment of the risk associated with geologic CO₂ storage is critical to the deployment of large-scale storage projects. A potential risk is the deterioration of groundwater quality caused by the leakage of CO₂ and brine leakage from deep subsurface reservoirs. In probabilistic risk assessment studies, numerical modeling is the primary tool employed to assess risk. However, the application of traditional numerical models to fully evaluate the impact of CO₂ leakage on groundwater can be computationally complex, demanding large processing times and resources, and involving large uncertainties. As an alternative, reduced order models (ROMs) can be used as highlymore » efficient surrogates for the complex process-based numerical models. In this study, we represent the complex hydrogeological and geochemical conditions in a heterogeneous aquifer and subsequent risk by developing and using two separate ROMs. The first ROM is derived from a model that accounts for the heterogeneous flow and transport conditions in the presence of complex leakage functions for CO₂ and brine. The second ROM is obtained from models that feature similar, but simplified flow and transport conditions, and allow for a more complex representation of all relevant geochemical reactions. To quantify possible impacts to groundwater aquifers, the basic risk metric is taken as the aquifer volume in which the water quality of the aquifer may be affected by an underlying CO₂ storage project. The integration of the two ROMs provides an estimate of the impacted aquifer volume taking into account uncertainties in flow, transport and chemical conditions. These two ROMs can be linked in a comprehensive system level model for quantitative risk assessment of the deep storage reservoir, wellbore leakage, and shallow aquifer impacts to assess the collective risk of CO₂ storage projects.« less

  3. Dynamic and impact contact mechanics of geologic materials: Grain-scale experiments and modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cole, David M.; Hopkins, Mark A.; Ketcham, Stephen A.

    2013-06-18

    High fidelity treatments of the generation and propagation of seismic waves in naturally occurring granular materials is becoming more practical given recent advancements in our ability to model complex particle shapes and their mechanical interaction. Of particular interest are the grain-scale processes that are activated by impact events and the characteristics of force transmission through grain contacts. To address this issue, we have developed a physics based approach that involves laboratory experiments to quantify the dynamic contact and impact behavior of granular materials and incorporation of the observed behavior indiscrete element models. The dynamic experiments do not involve particle damage and emphasis is placed on measured values of contact stiffness and frictional loss. The normal stiffness observed in dynamic contact experiments at low frequencies (e.g., 10 Hz) are shown to be in good agreement with quasistatic experiments on quartz sand. The results of impact experiments - which involve moderate to extensive levels of particle damage - are presented for several types of naturally occurring granular materials (several quartz sands, magnesite and calcium carbonate ooids). Implementation of the experimental findings in discrete element models is discussed and the results of impact simulations involving up to 5 Multiplication-Sign 105 grains are presented.

  4. A Hydro-Economic Approach to Representing Water Resources Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kirshen, Paul H.; Strzepek, Kenneth, M.

    2004-01-14

    Grant Number DE-FG02-98ER62665 Office of Energy Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Abstract Many Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) divide the world into a small number of highly aggregated regions. Non-OECD countries are aggregated geographically into continental and multiple-continental regions or economically by development level. Current research suggests that these large scale aggregations cannot accurately represent potential water resources-related climate change impacts. In addition, IAMs do not explicitly model the flow regulation impacts of reservoir and ground water systems, the economics of water supply, or the demand for water in economic activities. Using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) as a case study, this research implemented a set of methodologies to provide accurate representation of water resource climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models. There were also detailed examinations of key issues related to aggregated modeling including: modeling water consumption versus water withdrawals; ground and surface water interactions; development of reservoir cost curves; modeling of surface areas of aggregated reservoirs for estimating evaporation losses; and evaluating the importance of spatial scale in river basin modeling. The major findings include: - Continental or national or even large scale river basin aggregation of water supplies and demands do not accurately capture the impacts of climate change in the water and agricultural sector in IAMs. - Fortunately, there now exist gridden approaches (0.5 X 0.5 degrees) to model streamflows in a global analysis. The gridded approach to hydrologic modeling allows flexibility in aligning basin boundaries with national boundaries. This combined with GIS tools, high speed computers, and the growing availability of socio-economic gridded data bases allows assignment of

  5. Methods for modeling impact-induced reactivity changes in small reactors.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tallman, Tyler N.; Radel, Tracy E.; Smith, Jeffrey A.; Villa, Daniel L.; Smith, Brandon M.; Radel, Ross F.; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Wilson, Paul Philip Hood

    2010-10-01

    This paper describes techniques for determining impact deformation and the subsequent reactivity change for a space reactor impacting the ground following a potential launch accident or for large fuel bundles in a shipping container following an accident. This technique could be used to determine the margin of subcriticality for such potential accidents. Specifically, the approach couples a finite element continuum mechanics model (Pronto3D or Presto) with a neutronics code (MCNP). DAGMC, developed at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, is used to enable MCNP geometric queries to be performed using Pronto3D output. This paper summarizes what has been done historically for reactor launch analysis, describes the impact criticality analysis methodology, and presents preliminary results using representative reactor designs.

  6. A modeling study of the potential water quality impacts from in-stream tidal energy extraction

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Wang, Taiping; Yang, Zhaoqing; Copping, Andrea E.

    2013-11-09

    To assess the effects of tidal energy extraction on water quality in a simplified estuarine system, which consists of a tidal bay connected to the coastal ocean through a narrow channel where energy is extracted using in-stream tidal turbines, a three-dimensional coastal ocean model with built-in tidal turbine and water quality modules was applied. The effects of tidal energy extraction on water quality were examined for two energy extraction scenarios as compared with the baseline condition. It was found, in general, that the environmental impacts associated with energy extraction depend highly on the amount of power extracted from the system.more » Model results indicate that, as a result of energy extraction from the channel, the competition between decreased flushing rates in the bay and increased vertical mixing in the channel directly affects water quality responses in the bay. The decreased flushing rates tend to cause a stronger but negative impact on water quality. On the other hand, the increase of vertical mixing could lead to higher bottom dissolved oxygen at times. As the first modeling effort directly aimed at examining the impacts of tidal energy extraction on estuarine water quality, this study demonstrates that numerical models can serve as a very useful tool for this purpose. Furthermore, more careful efforts are warranted to address system-specific environmental issues in real-world, complex estuarine systems.« less

  7. Analysis of the environmental impact of China based on STIRPAT model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin Shoufu; Zhao Dingtao; Marinova, Dora

    2009-11-15

    Assuming that energy consumption is the main source of GHG emissions in China, this paper analyses the effect of population, urbanisation level, GDP per capita, industrialisation level and energy intensity on the country's environmental impact using the STIRPAT model with data for 1978-2006. The analysis shows that population has the largest potential effect on environmental impact, followed by urbanisation level, industrialisation level, GDP per capita and energy intensity. Hence, China's One Child Policy, which restrains rapid population growth, has been an effective way of reducing the country's environmental impact. However, due to the difference in growth rates, GDP per capita had a higher effect on the environmental impact, contributing to 38% of its increase (while population's contribution was at 32%). The rapid decrease in energy intensity was the main factor restraining the increase in China's environmental impact but recently it has also been rising. Against this background, the future of the country looks bleak unless a change in human behaviour towards more ecologically sensitive economic choices occurs.

  8. Modeling Climate-Water Impacts on Electricity Sector Capacity Expansion: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.

    2014-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to exacerbate water availability concerns for thermal power plant cooling, which is responsible for 41% of U.S. water withdrawals. This analysis describes an initial link between climate, water, and electricity systems using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity system capacity expansion model. Average surface water projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) data are applied to surface water rights available to new generating capacity in ReEDS, and electric sector growth is compared with and without climate-influenced water rights. The mean climate projection has only a small impact on national or regional capacity growth and water use because most regions have sufficient unappropriated or previously retired water rights to offset climate impacts. Climate impacts are notable in southwestern states that purchase fewer water rights and obtain a greater share from wastewater and other higher-cost water resources. The electric sector climate impacts demonstrated herein establish a methodology to be later exercised with more extreme climate scenarios and a more rigorous representation of legal and physical water availability.

  9. Summary Impacts of Modeled Provisions of the 2003 Conference Energy Bill

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2004-01-01

    This service report was undertaken at the February 2, 2004, request of Senator John Sununu to perform an assessment of the Conference Energy Bill of 2003. This report summarizes the CEB provisions that can be analyzed using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and have the potential to affect energy consumption, supply, and prices. The impacts are estimated by comparing the projections with the CEB provisions to the AEO2004 Reference Case.

  10. Modeling the Impact of Carbon Dioxide Leakage into an Unconfined, Oxidizing Carbonate Aquifer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bacon, Diana H.; Qafoku, Nikolla; Dai, Zhenxue; Keating, Elizabeth; Brown, Christopher F.

    2016-01-01

    Multiphase, reactive transport modeling was used to identify the mechanisms controlling trace metal release under elevated CO2 conditions from a well-characterized carbonate aquifer. Modeling was conducted for two experimental scenarios: batch experiments to simulate sudden, fast, and short-lived release of CO2 as would occur in the case of well failure during injection, and column experiments to simulate more gradual leaks such as those occurring along undetected faults, fractures, or well linings. Observed and predicted trace metal concentrations are compared to groundwater concentrations from this aquifer to determine the potential for leaking CO2 to adversely impact drinking water quality. Finally, a three-dimensional multiphase flow and reactive-transport simulation of CO2 leakage from an abandoned wellbore into a generalized model of the shallow, unconfined portion of the aquifer is used to determine potential impacts on groundwater quality. As a measure of adverse impacts on groundwater quality, both the EPAs MCL limits and the maximum trace metal concentration observed in the aquifer were used as threshold values.

  11. ImSET 3.1: Impact of Sector Energy Technologies Model Description and User's Guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scott, Michael J.; Livingston, Olga V.; Balducci, Patrick J.; Roop, Joseph M.; Schultz, Robert W.

    2009-05-22

    This 3.1 version of the Impact of Sector Energy Technologies (ImSET) model represents the next generation of the previously-built ImSET model (ImSET 2.0) that was developed in 2005 to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of energy-efficient technology in buildings. In particular, a special-purpose version of the Benchmark National Input-Output (I-O) model was designed specifically to estimate the national employment and income effects of the deployment of Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)–developed energy-saving technologies. In comparison with the previous versions of the model, this version features the use of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2002 national input-output table and the central processing code has been moved from the FORTRAN legacy operating environment to a modern C++ code. ImSET is also easier to use than extant macroeconomic simulation models and incorporates information developed by each of the EERE offices as part of the requirements of the Government Performance and Results Act. While it does not include the ability to model certain dynamic features of markets for labor and other factors of production featured in the more complex models, for most purposes these excluded features are not critical. The analysis is credible as long as the assumption is made that relative prices in the economy would not be substantially affected by energy efficiency investments. In most cases, the expected scale of these investments is small enough that neither labor markets nor production cost relationships should seriously affect national prices as the investments are made. The exact timing of impacts on gross product, employment, and national wage income from energy efficiency investments is not well-enough understood that much special insight can be gained from the additional dynamic sophistication of a macroeconomic simulation model. Thus, we believe that this version of ImSET is a cost-effective solution to estimating the economic

  12. NSR&D FY15 Final Report. Modeling Mechanical, Thermal, and Chemical Effects of Impact

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Long, Christopher Curtis; Ma, Xia; Zhang, Duan Zhong

    2015-11-02

    The main goal of this project is to develop a computer model that explains and predicts coupled mechanical, thermal and chemical responses of HE under impact and friction insults. The modeling effort is based on the LANL-developed CartaBlanca code, which is implemented with the dual domain material point (DDMP) method to calculate complex and coupled thermal, chemical and mechanical effects among fluids, solids and the transitions between the states. In FY 15, we have implemented the TEPLA material model for metal and performed preliminary can penetration simulation and begun to link with experiment. Currently, we are working on implementing a shock to detonation transition (SDT) model (SURF) and JWL equation of state.

  13. Advances in atmospheric chemistry modeling: the LLNL impact tropospheric/stratospheric chemistry model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rotman, D A; Atherton, C

    1999-10-07

    We present a unique modeling capability to understand the global distribution of trace gases and aerosols throughout both the troposphere and stratosphere. It includes the ability to simulate tropospheric chemistry that occurs both in the gas phase as well as on the surfaces of solid particles. We have used this capability to analyze observations from particular flight campaigns as well as averaged observed data. Results show the model to accurately simulate the complex chemistry occurring near the tropopause and throughout the troposphere and stratosphere.

  14. On the Impact of Execution Models: A Case Study in Computational Chemistry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chavarría-Miranda, Daniel; Halappanavar, Mahantesh; Krishnamoorthy, Sriram; Manzano Franco, Joseph B.; Vishnu, Abhinav; Hoisie, Adolfy

    2015-05-25

    Efficient utilization of high-performance computing (HPC) platforms is an important and complex problem. Execution models, abstract descriptions of the dynamic runtime behavior of the execution stack, have significant impact on the utilization of HPC systems. Using a computational chemistry kernel as a case study and a wide variety of execution models combined with load balancing techniques, we explore the impact of execution models on the utilization of an HPC system. We demonstrate a 50 percent improvement in performance by using work stealing relative to a more traditional static scheduling approach. We also use a novel semi-matching technique for load balancing that has comparable performance to a traditional hypergraph-based partitioning implementation, which is computationally expensive. Using this study, we found that execution model design choices and assumptions can limit critical optimizations such as global, dynamic load balancing and finding the correct balance between available work units and different system and runtime overheads. With the emergence of multi- and many-core architectures and the consequent growth in the complexity of HPC platforms, we believe that these lessons will be beneficial to researchers tuning diverse applications on modern HPC platforms, especially on emerging dynamic platforms with energy-induced performance variability.

  15. Hurricanes in an Aquaplanet World: Implications of the Impacts of External Forcing and Model Horizontal Resolution

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Fuyu; Collins, William D.; Wehner, Michael F.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-06-02

    High-resolution climate models have been shown to improve the statistics of tropical storms and hurricanes compared to low-resolution models. The impact of increasing horizontal resolution in the tropical storm simulation is investigated exclusively using a series of Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) runs with idealized aquaplanet steady-state boundary conditions and a fixed operational storm-tracking algorithm. The results show that increasing horizontal resolution helps to detect more hurricanes, simulate stronger extreme rainfall, and emulate better storm structures in the models. However, increasing model resolution does not necessarily produce stronger hurricanes in terms of maximum wind speed, minimum sea level pressure, and mean precipitation, as the increased number of storms simulated by high-resolution models is mainly associated with weaker storms. The spatial scale at which the analyses are conducted appears to have more important control on these meteorological statistics compared to horizontal resolution of the model grid. When the simulations are analyzed on common low-resolution grids, the statistics of the hurricanes, particularly the hurricane counts, show reduced sensitivity to the horizontal grid resolution and signs of scale invariant.

  16. Impacts of WRF Physics and Measurement Uncertainty on California Wintertime Model Wet Bias

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chin, H S; Caldwell, P M; Bader, D C

    2009-07-22

    The Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) model version 3.0.1 is used to explore California wintertime model wet bias. In this study, two wintertime storms are selected from each of four major types of large-scale conditions; Pineapple Express, El Nino, La Nina, and synoptic cyclones. We test the impacts of several model configurations on precipitation bias through comparison with three sets of gridded surface observations; one from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, and two variations from the University of Washington (without and with long-term trend adjustment; UW1 and UW2, respectively). To simplify validation, California is divided into 4 regions (Coast, Central Valley, Mountains, and Southern California). Simulations are driven by North American Regional Reanalysis data to minimize large-scale forcing error. Control simulations are conducted with 12-km grid spacing (low resolution) but additional experiments are performed at 2-km (high) resolution to evaluate the robustness of microphysics and cumulus parameterizations to resolution changes. We find that the choice of validation dataset has a significant impact on the model wet bias, and the forecast skill of model precipitation depends strongly on geographic location and storm type. Simulations with right physics options agree better with UW1 observations. In 12-km resolution simulations, the Lin microphysics and the Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme have better forecast skill in the coastal region while Goddard, Thompson, and Morrison microphysics, and the Grell-Devenyi cumulus scheme perform better in the rest of California. The effect of planetary boundary layer, soil-layer, and radiation physics on model precipitation is weaker than that of microphysics and cumulus processes for short- to medium-range low-resolution simulations. Comparison of 2-km and 12-km resolution runs suggests a need for improvement of cumulus schemes, and supports the use of microphysics schemes in coarser

  17. Software package for modeling spin–orbit motion in storage rings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zyuzin, D. V.

    2015-12-15

    A software package providing a graphical user interface for computer experiments on the motion of charged particle beams in accelerators, as well as analysis of obtained data, is presented. The software package was tested in the framework of the international project on electric dipole moment measurement JEDI (Jülich Electric Dipole moment Investigations). The specific features of particle spin motion imply the requirement to use a cyclic accelerator (storage ring) consisting of electrostatic elements, which makes it possible to preserve horizontal polarization for a long time. Computer experiments study the dynamics of 10{sup 6}–10{sup 9} particles in a beam during 10{sup 9} turns in an accelerator (about 10{sup 12}–10{sup 15} integration steps for the equations of motion). For designing an optimal accelerator structure, a large number of computer experiments on polarized beam dynamics are required. The numerical core of the package is COSY Infinity, a program for modeling spin–orbit dynamics.

  18. Evaluating Impacts of CO2 Intrusion into an Unconsolidated Aquifer: II. Modeling Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zheng, Liange; Qafoku, Nikolla; Lawter, Amanda R.; Wang, Guohui; Shao, Hongbo; Brown, Christopher F.

    2015-08-04

    Large scale deployment of CO2 geological sequestration requires the assessment of the risks. One of the potential risks is the impact of CO2 leakage on shallow groundwater overlying the sequestration site.The understanding of the key chemical processes and parameters are critical for building numerical models for risk assessment. Model interpretation of laboratory and field tests is an effective way to enhance such understanding. Column experiments in which CO2 charged synthetic groundwater flowed through a column packed with material from High Plains aquifer was conducted and concentration of several constituents in the effluent water was analyzed. In this paper, reactive transport model was developed to interpret the observed concentration changes, attempting to shed light on the chemical reactions and key parameters that control the concentration changes of these constituents. The reactive transport model catches the concentration changes of pH, Ca, Mg, Ba, Sr, Cs, As and Pb fairly well. Calcite dissolution and Ca-driven cation exchange reactions are the major drivers for the concentration changes of Ca, Ba, Sr, and Cs. The pH-driven adsorption/desorption reactions lead to a concentration increase of As and Pb. The volume fraction and reactive surface area of calcite, CEC and sorption capacity are key parameters in determining the magnitude of concentration increase. Model results also show that the dissolution of calcite with Ba impurity could be an alternative explanation of the increase in Ba concentration.

  19. Wound Ballistics Modeling for Blast Loading Blunt Force Impact and Projectile Penetration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Taylor, Paul A.; Cooper, Candice Frances; Burnett, Damon J.

    2015-09-01

    Light body armor development for the warfighter is based on trial-and-error testing of prototype designs against ballistic projectiles. Torso armor testing against blast is virtually nonexistent but necessary to ensure adequate protection against injury to the heart and lungs. In this report, we discuss the development of a high-fidelity human torso model, it's merging with the existing Sandia Human Head-Neck Model, and development of the modeling & simulation (M&S) capabilities necessary to simulate wound injury scenarios. Using the new Sandia Human Torso Model, we demonstrate the advantage of virtual simulation in the investigation of wound injury as it relates to the warfighter experience. We present the results of virtual simulations of blast loading and ballistic projectile impact to the tors o with and without notional protective armor. In this manner, we demonstrate the ad vantages of applying a modeling and simulation approach to the investigation of wound injury and relative merit assessments of protective body armor without the need for trial-and-error testing.

  20. Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Kyle, G. Page; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Havlik, Petr; van Meijl, Hans; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Popp, Alexander; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk; Wise, Marshall A.

    2014-01-01

    Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, e.g. from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an RCP2.6-type scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in an RCP8.5-type scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.

  1. Simplified Method for Modeling the Impact of Arbitrary Partial Shading Conditions on PV Array Performance: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MacAlpine, Sara; Deline, Chris

    2015-09-15

    It is often difficult to model the effects of partial shading conditions on PV array performance, as shade losses are nonlinear and depend heavily on a system's particular configuration. This work describes and implements a simple method for modeling shade loss: a database of shade impact results (loss percentages), generated using a validated, detailed simulation tool and encompassing a wide variety of shading scenarios. The database is intended to predict shading losses in crystalline silicon PV arrays and is accessed using basic inputs generally available in any PV simulation tool. Performance predictions using the database are within 1-2% of measured data for several partially shaded PV systems, and within 1% of those predicted by the full, detailed simulation tool on an annual basis. The shade loss database shows potential to considerably improve performance prediction for partially shaded PV systems.

  2. Modelling estimation on the impacts of global warming on rice production in China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang Futang

    1997-12-31

    In this paper, based on the validation and sensitivity analyses of two rice growth models (ORYZA1 and DRISIC--Double Rice Cropping Simulation Model for China), and their joining with global warming scenarios projected by GCMs (GFDL, UKMO-H, MPI and DKRZ OPYC, DKRZ LSG, respectively), the modelling experiments were carried out on the potential impacts of global warming on rice production in China. The results show that although there are the some features for each rice cropping patterns because of different models and estimated methods, the rice production for all cropping patterns in China will trend to decrease with different degrees. In average, early, middle and later rice production, as well as, double-early and double-later rice production in different areas of China will decrease 3.7%, 10.5% and 10.4%, as well as, 15.9% and 14.4%, respectively. It do illustrates that the advantage effects induced by elevated CO{sub 2} concentration on photosynthesis does not compensate the adverse effects of temperature increase. Thus, it is necessary to adjusting rice cropping patterns, cultivars and farming techniques to the global warming timely.

  3. Light-absorbing Particles in Snow and Ice: Measurement and Modeling of Climatic and Hydrological Impact

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qian, Yun; Yasunari, Teppei J.; Doherty, Sarah J.; Flanner, M. G.; Lau, William K.; Ming, J.; Wang, Hailong; Wang, Mo; Warren, Stephen G.; Zhang, Rudong

    2015-01-01

    Light absorbing particles (LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust) influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance (a.k.a., surface darkening), which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice (LAPSI) has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g. in the fourth and fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, andclimatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.

  4. Data Collection Handbook to Support Modeling Impacts of Radioactive Material in Soil and Building Structures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yu, Charley; Kamboj, Sunita; Wang, Cheng; Cheng, Jing-Jy

    2015-09-01

    This handbook is an update of the 1993 version of the Data Collection Handbook and the Radionuclide Transfer Factors Report to support modeling the impact of radioactive material in soil. Many new parameters have been added to the RESRAD Family of Codes, and new measurement methodologies are available. A detailed review of available parameter databases was conducted in preparation of this new handbook. This handbook is a companion document to the user manuals when using the RESRAD (onsite) and RESRAD-OFFSITE code. It can also be used for RESRAD-BUILD code because some of the building-related parameters are included in this handbook. The RESRAD (onsite) has been developed for implementing U.S. Department of Energy Residual Radioactive Material Guidelines. Hydrogeological, meteorological, geochemical, geometrical (size, area, depth), crops and livestock, human intake, source characteristic, and building characteristic parameters are used in the RESRAD (onsite) code. The RESRAD-OFFSITE code is an extension of the RESRAD (onsite) code and can also model the transport of radionuclides to locations outside the footprint of the primary contamination. This handbook discusses parameter definitions, typical ranges, variations, and measurement methodologies. It also provides references for sources of additional information. Although this handbook was developed primarily to support the application of RESRAD Family of Codes, the discussions and values are valid for use of other pathway analysis models and codes.

  5. Aerosol cluster impact and break-up : II. Atomic and Cluster Scale Models.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lechman, Jeremy B.; Takato, Yoichi

    2010-09-01

    Understanding the interaction of aerosol particle clusters/flocs with surfaces is an area of interest for a number of processes in chemical, pharmaceutical, and powder manufacturing as well as in steam-tube rupture in nuclear power plants. Developing predictive capabilities for these applications involves coupled phenomena on multiple length and timescales from the process macroscopic scale ({approx}1m) to the multi-cluster interaction scale (1mm-0.1m) to the single cluster scale ({approx}1000 - 10000 particles) to the particle scale (10nm-10{micro}m) interactions, and on down to the sub-particle, atomic scale interactions. The focus of this report is on the single cluster scale; although work directed toward developing better models of particle-particle interactions by considering sub-particle scale interactions and phenomena is also described. In particular, results of mesoscale (i.e., particle to single cluster scale) discrete element method (DEM) simulations for aerosol cluster impact with rigid walls are presented. The particle-particle interaction model is based on JKR adhesion theory and is implemented as an enhancement to the granular package in the LAMMPS code. The theory behind the model is outlined and preliminary results are shown. Additionally, as mentioned, results from atomistic classical molecular dynamics simulations are also described as a means of developing higher fidelity models of particle-particle interactions. Ultimately, the results from these and other studies at various scales must be collated to provide systems level models with accurate 'sub-grid' information for design, analysis and control of the underlying systems processes.

  6. Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter windstorms in Switzerland

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Welker, Christoph; Martius, Olivia; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Bronnimann, Stefan

    2016-03-30

    This study investigates the wind gusts and associated economic loss patterns of high-impact winter windstorms in Switzerland between 1871 and 2011. A novel approach for simulating windstorm-related gusts and losses at regional to local scales is applied to a sample of 84 windstorms. The approach involves the dynamical downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) ensemble mean to 3-km horizontal grid size using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Economic losses are simulated at municipal level for present-day asset distribution based on the downscaled (parameterised) wind gusts at high spatiotemporal resolution using the open-source impact model climada. A comparisonmore » with insurance loss data for two recent windstorms ("Lothar'' in 1999, "Joachim'' in 2011) indicates that the loss simulation allows to realistically simulate the spatial patterns of windstorm losses. The loss amplitude is strongly underestimated for 'Lothar', while it is in reasonable agreement for 'Joachim'. Possible reasons are discussed. Uncertainties concerning the loss simulation arise from the wind gust estimation method applied; estimates can differ considerably among the different methods, in particular over high orography. Furthermore, the quality of the loss simulation is affected by the underlying simplified assumptions regarding the distribution of assets and their susceptibilities to damage. For the whole windstorm sample, composite averages of simulated wind gust speed and loss are computed. Both composites reveal high values for the densely populated Swiss Plateau and lower values for south-eastern Switzerland; metropolitan areas stand out in the loss composite. Eight of the top 10 events concerning the losses simulated for present-day asset distribution and summed over all Swiss municipalities occurred after 1950. Furthermore, it remains uncertain whether this is due to decadal-scale changes of winter windstorms in Switzerland or merely due to a possible

  7. A Look at the U.S. Energy System A Strategic Impact Model (2050 SIM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Layne Pincock; John W. Collins

    2011-06-01

    The United States (U.S.) energy infrastructure is among the most reliable, accessible, and economical in the world. On the other hand, it is also excessively reliant on foreign energy sources, experiences high volatility in energy prices, does not always practice good stewardship of finite indigenous energy resources, and emits significant quantities of greenhouse gases. The U.S. Department of Energy is conducting research and development on advanced nuclear reactor concepts and technologies, including High Temperature Gas Reactor (HTGR) technologies, directed at helping the United States meet its current and future energy challenges. This paper discusses the systematic approach used to develop the 2050 Strategic Impact Model (2050 SIM), which allows the user to analyze and depict the benefits of various energy sources in meeting the energy demand. It also provides an overall systems understanding of the tradeoffs between building and using HTGRs versus other existing technologies for providing energy (heat and electricity) to various energy-use sectors in the United States. This paper also provides the assumptions used in the model, the rational for the methodology, and the references for the source documentation and source data used in developing 2050 SIM.

  8. Impact of Pilot Light Modeling on the Predicted Annual Performance of Residential Gas Water Heaters: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maguire, J.; Burch, J.

    2013-08-01

    Modeling residential water heaters with dynamic simulation models can provide accurate estimates of their annual energy consumption, if the units? characteristics and use conditions are known. Most gas storage water heaters (GSWHs) include a standing pilot light. It is generally assumed that the pilot light energy will help make up standby losses and have no impact on the predicted annual energy consumption. However, that is not always the case. The gas input rate and conversion efficiency of a pilot light for a GSWH were determined from laboratory data. The data were used in simulations of a typical GSWH with and without a pilot light, for two cases: 1) the GSWH is used alone; and 2) the GSWH is the second tank in a solar water heating (SWH) system. The sensitivity of wasted pilot light energy to annual hot water use, climate, and installation location was examined. The GSWH used alone in unconditioned space in a hot climate had a slight increase in energy consumption. The GSWH with a pilot light used as a backup to an SWH used up to 80% more auxiliary energy than one without in hot, sunny locations, from increased tank losses.

  9. Energy Integration for 2050 - A Strategic Impact Model (2050 SIM), Version 2.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John Collins

    2011-09-01

    The United States (U.S.) energy infrastructure is among the most reliable, accessible, and economic in the world. On the other hand, it is also excessively reliant on foreign energy sources, experiences high volatility in energy prices, does not always practice good stewardship of finite indigenous energy resources, and emits significant quantities of greenhouse gas. The U.S. Department of Energy is conducting research and development on advanced nuclear reactor concepts and technologies, including High Temperature Gas Reactor (HTGR) technologies, directed at helping the United States meet its current and future energy challenges. This report discusses the Draft Strategic Impact Model (SIM), an initial version of which was created during the later part of FY-2010. SIM was developed to analyze and depict the benefits of various energy sources in meeting the energy demand and to provide an overall system understanding of the tradeoffs between building and using HTGRs versus other existing technologies for providing energy (heat and electricity) to various energy-use sectors in the United States. This report also provides the assumptions used in the model, the rationale for the methodology, and the references for the source documentation and source data used in developing the SIM.

  10. Energy Integration for 2050 - A Strategic Impact Model (2050 SIM), Version 1.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2010-10-01

    The United States (U.S.) energy infrastructure is among the most reliable, accessible, and economic in the world. On the other hand, it is also excessively reliant on foreign energy sources, experiences high volatility in energy prices, does not always practice good stewardship of finite indigenous energy resources, and emits significant quantities of greenhouse gas. The U.S. Department of Energy is conducting research and development on advanced nuclear reactor concepts and technologies, including High Temperature Gas Reactor (HTGR) technologies, directed at helping the United States meet its current and future energy challenges. This report discusses the Draft Strategic Impact Model (SIM), an initial version of which was created during the later part of FY-2010. SIM was developed to analyze and depict the benefits of various energy sources in meeting the energy demand and to provide an overall system understanding of the tradeoffs between building and using HTGRs versus other existing technologies for providing energy (heat and electricity) to various energy-use sectors in the United States. This report also provides the assumptions used in the model, the rationale for the methodology, and the references for the source documentation and source data used in developing the SIM.

  11. Urban airshed modeling of air quality impacts of alternative transportation fuel use in Los Angeles and Atlanta

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1997-12-01

    The main objective of NREL in supporting this study is to determine the relative air quality impact of the use of compressed natural gas (CNG) as an alternative transportation fuel when compared to low Reid vapor pressure (RVP) gasoline and reformulated gasoline (RFG). A table lists the criteria, air toxic, and greenhouse gas pollutants for which emissions were estimated for the alternative fuel scenarios. Air quality impacts were then estimated by performing photochemical modeling of the alternative fuel scenarios using the Urban Airshed Model Version 6.21 and the Carbon Bond Mechanism Version IV (CBM-IV) (Geary et al., 1988) Using this model, the authors examined the formation and transport of ozone under alternative fuel strategies for motor vehicle transportation sources for the year 2007. Photochemical modeling was performed for modeling domains in Los Angeles, California, and Atlanta, Georgia.

  12. Modeling the impact of agricultural land use and management on US carbon budgets

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Drewniak, B. A.; Mishra, U.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

    2014-09-22

    Cultivation of the terrestrial land surface can create either a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, depending on land management practices. The Community Land Model (CLM) provides a useful tool to explore how land use and management impact the soil carbon pool at regional to global scales. CLM was recently updated to include representation of managed lands growing maize, soybean, and spring wheat. In this study, CLM-Crop is used to investigate the impacts of various management practices, including fertilizer use and differential rates of crop residue removal, on the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage of croplands in the continental Unitedmore » States over approximately a 170 year period. Results indicate that total US SOC stocks have already lost over 8 Pg C (10%) due to land cultivation practices (e.g., fertilizer application, cultivar choice, and residue removal), compared to a land surface composed of native vegetation (i.e., grasslands). After long periods of cultivation, individual plots growing maize and soybean lost up to 65% of the carbon stored, compared to a grassland site. Crop residue management showed the greatest effect on soil carbon storage, with low and medium residue returns resulting in additional losses of 5% and 3.5%, respectively, in US carbon storage, while plots with high residue returns stored 2% more carbon. Nitrogenous fertilizer can alter the amount of soil carbon stocks significantly. Under current levels of crop residue return, not applying fertilizer resulted in a 5% loss of soil carbon. Our simulations indicate that disturbance through cultivation will always result in a loss of soil carbon, and management practices will have a large influence on the magnitude of SOC loss.« less

  13. Modeling the impact of agricultural land use and management on US carbon budgets

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Drewniak, B. A.; Mishra, U.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

    2015-04-09

    Cultivation of the terrestrial land surface can create either a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, depending on land management practices. The Community Land Model (CLM) provides a useful tool for exploring how land use and management impact the soil carbon pool at regional to global scales. CLM was recently updated to include representation of managed lands growing maize, soybean, and spring wheat. In this study, CLM-Crop is used to investigate the impacts of various management practices, including fertilizer use and differential rates of crop residue removal, on the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage of croplands in the continental Unitedmore » States over approximately a 170-year period. Results indicate that total US SOC stocks have already lost over 8 Pg C (10%) due to land cultivation practices (e.g., fertilizer application, cultivar choice, and residue removal), compared to a land surface composed of native vegetation (i.e., grasslands). After long periods of cultivation, individual subgrids (the equivalent of a field plot) growing maize and soybean lost up to 65% of the carbon stored compared to a grassland site. Crop residue management showed the greatest effect on soil carbon storage, with low and medium residue returns resulting in additional losses of 5 and 3.5%, respectively, in US carbon storage, while plots with high residue returns stored 2% more carbon. Nitrogenous fertilizer can alter the amount of soil carbon stocks significantly. Under current levels of crop residue return, not applying fertilizer resulted in a 5% loss of soil carbon. Our simulations indicate that disturbance through cultivation will always result in a loss of soil carbon, and management practices will have a large influence on the magnitude of SOC loss.« less

  14. Transient Inverse Calibration of Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Model to Hanford Operational Impacts - 1943 to 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Wurstner, Signe K.; Thorne, Paul D.; Orr, Samuel; Mckinley, Mathew I.

    2001-05-31

    This report describes a new initiative to strengthen the technical defensibility of predictions made with the Hanford site-wide groundwater flow and transport model. The focus is on characterizing major uncertainties in the current model. PNNL will develop and implement a calibration approach and methodology that can be used to evaluate alternative conceptual models of the Hanford aquifer system. The calibration process will involve a three-dimensional transient inverse calibration of each numerical model to historical observations of hydraulic and water quality impacts to the unconfined aquifer system from Hanford operations since the mid-1940s.

  15. Fact #941: September 5, 2016 Mid-term Evaluation of the Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards May Impact Future Standards for Model Years 2022 to 2025- Dataset

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Excel file and dataset for Mid-term Evaluation of the Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards May Impact Future Standards for Model Years 2022 to 2025

  16. The Hydrological Impact of Geoengineering in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tilmes, S.; Fasullo, John; Lamarque, J.-F.; Marsh, D.; Mills, Mike; Alterskjaer, Kari; Muri, Helene O.; Kristjansson, Jon E.; Boucher, Olivier; Schulz, M.; Cole, Jason N.; Curry, Charles L.; Jones, A.; Haywood, J.; Irvine, Peter; Ji, Duoying; Moore, John; Bou Karam, Diana; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Rasch, Philip J.; Singh, Balwinder; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Robock, Alan; Yang, Shuting; Watanabe, Shingo

    2013-10-14

    Abstract: The hydrologic impact of enhancing Earth’s albedo due to solar radiation management (SRM) is investigated using simulations from 12 models contributing to the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). An artificial experiment is investigated, where global mean temperature is preserved at pre-industrial conditions, while atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are quadrupled. The associated reduction of downwelling surface solar radiation in a high CO2 environment leads to a reduction of global evaporation of 10% and 4% and precipitation of 6.1% and 6.3% over land and ocean, respectively. An initial reduction of latent heat flux at the surface is largely driven by reduced evapotranspiration over land with instantly increasing CO2 concentrations in both experiments. A warming surface associated with the transient adjustment in the 4xCO2 experiment further generates an increase of global precipitation, with considerable regional changes, such as a significant precipitation reduction of 7% for the North American summer monsoon. Reduced global precipitation persists in the geoengineered experiment where temperatures are stabilized, with considerable regional rainfall deficits. Precipitation reductions that are consistent in sign across models are identified in the geoengineered experiment over monsoonal land regions of East Asia (6%), North America (7%), South America (6%) and South Africa (5%). In contrast to the 4xCO2 experiment, where the frequency of months with heavy precipitation intensity is increased by over 50%, it is reduced by up to 20% in the geoengineering scenario . The reduction in heavy precipitation is more pronounced over land than over the ocean, and accompanies a stronger reduction in evaporation over land. For northern mid-latitudes, maximum precipitation reduction over land ranges from 1 to 16% for individual models. For 45-65°N, the frequency of median to high intensity precipitation in summer is strongly reduced. These

  17. Impact of aerosol size representation on modeling aerosol-cloud interactions: AEROSOL SIZE REPRESENTATION

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Y.; Easter, R. C.; Ghan, S. J.; Abdul-Razzak, H.

    2002-11-07

    We use a 1-D version of a climate-aerosol-chemistry model with both modal and sectional aerosol size representations to evaluate the impact of aerosol size representation on modeling aerosol-cloud interactions in shallow stratiform clouds observed during the 2nd Aerosol Characterization Experiment. Both the modal (with prognostic aerosol number and mass or prognostic aerosol number, surface area and mass, referred to as the Modal-NM and Modal-NSM) and the sectional approaches (with 12 and 36 sections) predict total number and mass for interstitial and activated particles that are generally within several percent of references from a high resolution 108-section approach. The modal approachmore » with prognostic aerosol mass but diagnostic number (referred to as the Modal-M) cannot accurately predict the total particle number and surface areas, with deviations from the references ranging from 7-161%. The particle size distributions are sensitive to size representations, with normalized absolute differences of up to 12% and 37% for the 36- and 12-section approaches, and 30%, 39%, and 179% for the Modal-NSM, Modal-NM, and Modal-M, respectively. For the Modal-NSM and Modal-NM, differences from the references are primarily due to the inherent assumptions and limitations of the modal approach. In particular, they cannot resolve the abrupt size transition between the interstitial and activated aerosol fractions. For the 12- and 36-section approaches, differences are largely due to limitations of the parameterized activation for non-log-normal size distributions, plus the coarse resolution for the 12-section case. Differences are larger both with higher aerosol (i.e., less complete activation) and higher SO2 concentrations (i.e., greater modification of the initial aerosol distribution).« less

  18. Impact of aerosol size representation on modeling aerosol-cloud interactions

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Y.; Easter, R. C.; Ghan, S. J.; Abdul-Razzak, H.

    2002-11-07

    In this study, we use a 1-D version of a climate-aerosol-chemistry model with both modal and sectional aerosol size representations to evaluate the impact of aerosol size representation on modeling aerosol-cloud interactions in shallow stratiform clouds observed during the 2nd Aerosol Characterization Experiment. Both the modal (with prognostic aerosol number and mass or prognostic aerosol number, surface area and mass, referred to as the Modal-NM and Modal-NSM) and the sectional approaches (with 12 and 36 sections) predict total number and mass for interstitial and activated particles that are generally within several percent of references from a high resolution 108-section approach.more » The modal approach with prognostic aerosol mass but diagnostic number (referred to as the Modal-M) cannot accurately predict the total particle number and surface areas, with deviations from the references ranging from 7-161%. The particle size distributions are sensitive to size representations, with normalized absolute differences of up to 12% and 37% for the 36- and 12-section approaches, and 30%, 39%, and 179% for the Modal-NSM, Modal-NM, and Modal-M, respectively. For the Modal-NSM and Modal-NM, differences from the references are primarily due to the inherent assumptions and limitations of the modal approach. In particular, they cannot resolve the abrupt size transition between the interstitial and activated aerosol fractions. For the 12- and 36-section approaches, differences are largely due to limitations of the parameterized activation for non-log-normal size distributions, plus the coarse resolution for the 12-section case. Differences are larger both with higher aerosol (i.e., less complete activation) and higher SO2 concentrations (i.e., greater modification of the initial aerosol distribution).« less

  19. Impact of high-order moments on the statistical modeling of transition arrays

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gilleron, Franck; Pain, Jean-Christophe; Bauche, Jacques; Bauche-Arnoult, Claire

    2008-02-15

    The impact of high-order moments on the statistical modeling of transition arrays in complex spectra is studied. It is shown that a departure from the Gaussian, which is usually employed in such an approach, may be observed even in the shape of unresolved spectra due to the large value of the kurtosis coefficient. The use of a Gaussian shape may also overestimate the width of the spectra in some cases. Therefore, it is proposed to simulate the statistical shape of the transition arrays by the more flexible generalized Gaussian distribution which introduces an additional parameter--the power of the argument in the exponential--that can be constrained by the kurtosis value. The relevance of the statistical line distribution is checked by comparisons with smoothed spectra obtained from detailed line-by-line calculations. The departure from the Gaussian is also confirmed through the analysis of 2p-3d transitions of recent absorption measurements. A numerical fit is proposed for an easy implementation of the statistical profile in atomic-structure codes.

  20. A spatially distributed model for the assessment of land use impacts on stream temperature in small urban watersheds

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sun, Ning; Yearsley, John; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2015-05-15

    Stream temperatures in urban watersheds are influenced to a high degree by anthropogenic impacts related to changes in landscape, stream channel morphology, and climate. These impacts can occur at small time and length scales, hence require analytical tools that consider the influence of the hydrologic regime, energy fluxes, topography, channel morphology, and near-stream vegetation distribution. Here we describe a modeling system that integrates the Distributed Hydrologic Soil Vegetation Model, DHSVM, with the semi-Lagrangian stream temperature model RBM, which has the capability to simulate the hydrology and water temperature of urban streams at high time and space resolutions, as well as a representation of the effects of riparian shading on stream energetics. We demonstrate the modeling system through application to the Mercer Creek watershed, a small urban catchment near Bellevue, Washington. The results suggest that the model is able both to produce realistic streamflow predictions at fine temporal and spatial scales, and to provide spatially distributed water temperature predictions that are consistent with observations throughout a complex stream network. We use the modeling construct to characterize impacts of land use change and near-stream vegetation change on stream temperature throughout the Mercer Creek system. We then explore the sensitivity of stream temperature to land use changes and modifications in vegetation along the riparian corridor.

  1. What is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, M. L.; Rajagopalan, K.; Chung, S. H.; Jiang, X.; Harrison, J. H.; Nergui, T.; Guenther, Alex B.; Miller, C.; Reyes, J.; Tague, C. L.; Choate, J. S.; Salathe, E.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Adam, J. C.

    2014-05-16

    Regional climate change impact (CCI) studies have widely involved downscaling and bias-correcting (BC) Global Climate Model (GCM)-projected climate for driving land surface models. However, BC may cause uncertainties in projecting hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to future climate due to the impaired spatiotemporal covariance of climate variables and a breakdown of physical conservation principles. Here we quantify the impact of BC on simulated climate-driven changes in water variables(evapotranspiration, ET; runoff; snow water equivalent, SWE; and water demand for irrigation), crop yield, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC), nitric oxide (NO) emissions, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) Region. We also quantify the impacts on net primary production (NPP) over a small watershed in the region (HJ Andrews). Simulation results from the coupled ECHAM5/MPI-OM model with A1B emission scenario were firstly dynamically downscaled to 12 km resolutions with WRF model. Then a quantile mapping based statistical downscaling model was used to downscale them into 1/16th degree resolution daily climate data over historical and future periods. Two series climate data were generated according to the option of bias-correction (i.e. with bias-correction (BC) and without bias-correction, NBC). Impact models were then applied to estimate hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to both BC and NBC meteorological datasets. These im20 pact models include a macro-scale hydrologic model (VIC), a coupled cropping system model (VIC-CropSyst), an ecohydrologic model (RHESSys), a biogenic emissions model (MEGAN), and a nutrient export model (Global-NEWS). Results demonstrate that the BC and NBC climate data provide consistent estimates of the climate-driven changes in water fluxes (ET, runoff, and water demand), VOCs (isoprene and monoterpenes) and NO emissions, mean crop yield, and river DIN export over the PNW domain. However

  2. Simulating the Impacts of Disturbances on Forest Carbon Cycling in North America: Processes, Data, Models, and Challenges

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, Shuguang; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Hicke, J.; Vargas, Rodrigo; Zhao, Shuqing; Chen, Jing Ming; Edburg, Steve; Hu, Yueming; Liu, Jinxun; McGuire, A. David; Xiao, Jingfeng; Keane, Robert; Yuan, Wenping; Tang, Jianwu; Luo, Yiqi; Potter, Christopher; Oeding, Jennifer

    2011-11-08

    Disturbances disrupt the forest structures and alter forest resources, substrate availability, or the physical environment. Understanding disturbances and their impacts is critical for a better quantification of North American carbon dynamics. We reviewed the status and major challenges in simulating the impacts of disturbances on forest carbon cycling in North America from the perspectives of process understanding, disturbance characterization, and modeling, and found some major issues. First, we do not have adequate continentally-consistent disturbance databases to support the NACP missions. Community effort, in collaborating with the modeling community, should be designated to systematically define international standards for disturbance databases with explicit inclusion of uncertainty measurements, adequate spatial and temporal resolutions, and explicit and quantifiable linkages with model simulations. Second, there is a need to develop effective and comprehensive process-based procedures or algorithms that can be used to quantify the immediate and long-term impacts of disturbances on forest succession, soils, microclimate, and cycles of carbon, water, and nutrients. These algorithms should be evaluated not only on the carbon cycle but also on the simulations of vegetation succession, alterations of soil and microclimate, and water and nutrients dynamics because adequate simulations of carbon dynamics rely on the correct quantification of the changes of soil and vegetation conditions. Third, the scaling challenges have rarely been addressed at the continental scale. We do not understand which processes and properties at a given temporal or spatial scales are critical while others can be simplified when we try to balance the North American carbon budget. Previous and current model simulations at the continental scale did not incorporate a full suite of disturbances information (because they do not exist as described above), and therefore provided little insight

  3. A simplified model for estimating population-scale energy impacts of building envelope air-tightening and mechanical ventilation retrofits

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Logue, Jennifer M.; Turner, William J. N.; Walker, Iain S.; Singer, Brett C.

    2015-01-19

    Changing the air exchange rate of a home (the sum of the infiltration and mechanical ventilation airflow rates) affects the annual thermal conditioning energy. Large-scale changes to air exchange rates of the housing stock can significantly alter the residential sector's energy consumption. However, the complexity of existing residential energy models is a barrier to the accurate quantification of the impact of policy changes on a state or national level. The Incremental Ventilation Energy (IVE) model developed in this study combines the output of simple air exchange models with a limited set of housing characteristics to estimate the associated change in energy demand of homes. The IVE model was designed specifically to enable modellers to use existing databases of housing characteristics to determine the impact of ventilation policy change on a population scale. The IVE model estimates of energy change when applied to US homes with limited parameterisation are shown to be comparable to the estimates of a well-validated, complex residential energy model.

  4. Assessment of Fluctuating Reservoir Elevations Using Hydraulic Models and Impacts to Larval Pacific Lamprey Rearing Habitat in the Bonneville Pool

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mueller, Robert P.; Rakowski, Cynthia L.; Perkins, William A.; Richmond, Marshall C.

    2015-02-24

    This report presents the results of a modeling assessment of likely lamprey larval habitat that may be impacted by dewatering of the major tributary delta regions in the Bonneville Pool of the Columbia River. This assessment was conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District (CENWP). The goal of the study was to provide baseline data about how the regions of interest would potentially be impacted at three river flows (10, 50, and 90 percent exceedance flow) for four different forebay elevations at Bonneville Dam. Impacts of unsteady flows at The Dalles Dam and changing forebay elevation at Bonneville Dam for a 2-week period were also assessed. The area of dewatered regions was calculated by importing modeled data outputs into a GIS and then calculating the change in inundated area near tributary deltas for the four Bonneville forebay surface elevations. From the modeled output we determined that the overall change in area is less sensitive to elevations changes during higher river discharges. Changing the forebay elevation at Bonneville and the resulting impact to total dewatered regions was greater at the lowest modeled river flow (97 kcfs) and showed the greatest variation at the White Salmon/Hood River delta regions followed by the Wind, Klickitat and the Little White Salmon rivers. To understand how inundation might change on a daily and hourly basis. Unsteady flow models were run for a 2-week period in 2002 and compared to 2014. The water surface elevation in the upstream pool closely follows that of the Bonneville Dam forebay with rapid changes of 1 to 2-ft possible. The data shows that 2.5-ft variation in water surface elevation occurred during this period in 2002 and a 3.7-ft change occurred in 2014. The duration of these changes were highly variable and generally did not stay constant for more than a 5-hr period.

  5. An analytical elastic plastic contact model with strain hardening and frictional effects for normal and oblique impacts

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Brake, M. R. W.

    2015-02-17

    Impact between metallic surfaces is a phenomenon that is ubiquitous in the design and analysis of mechanical systems. We found that to model this phenomenon, a new formulation for frictional elastic–plastic contact between two surfaces is developed. The formulation is developed to consider both frictional, oblique contact (of which normal, frictionless contact is a limiting case) and strain hardening effects. The constitutive model for normal contact is developed as two contiguous loading domains: the elastic regime and a transitionary region in which the plastic response of the materials develops and the elastic response abates. For unloading, the constitutive model ismore » based on an elastic process. Moreover, the normal contact model is assumed to only couple one-way with the frictional/tangential contact model, which results in the normal contact model being independent of the frictional effects. Frictional, tangential contact is modeled using a microslip model that is developed to consider the pressure distribution that develops from the elastic–plastic normal contact. This model is validated through comparisons with experimental results reported in the literature, and is demonstrated to be significantly more accurate than 10 other normal contact models and three other tangential contact models found in the literature.« less

  6. An analytical elastic plastic contact model with strain hardening and frictional effects for normal and oblique impacts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brake, M. R. W.

    2015-02-17

    Impact between metallic surfaces is a phenomenon that is ubiquitous in the design and analysis of mechanical systems. We found that to model this phenomenon, a new formulation for frictional elasticplastic contact between two surfaces is developed. The formulation is developed to consider both frictional, oblique contact (of which normal, frictionless contact is a limiting case) and strain hardening effects. The constitutive model for normal contact is developed as two contiguous loading domains: the elastic regime and a transitionary region in which the plastic response of the materials develops and the elastic response abates. For unloading, the constitutive model is based on an elastic process. Moreover, the normal contact model is assumed to only couple one-way with the frictional/tangential contact model, which results in the normal contact model being independent of the frictional effects. Frictional, tangential contact is modeled using a microslip model that is developed to consider the pressure distribution that develops from the elasticplastic normal contact. This model is validated through comparisons with experimental results reported in the literature, and is demonstrated to be significantly more accurate than 10 other normal contact models and three other tangential contact models found in the literature.

  7. On the modeling of the Taylor cylinder impact test for orthotropic textured materials: Calculations and experiments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maudlin, P.J.; Bingert, J.F.; House, J.W.

    1997-04-01

    Taylor impact tests using specimens cut from a rolled plate of Ta were conducted. The Ta was well-characterized in terms of flow stress and crystallographic texture. A piece-wise yield surface was interrogated from this orthotropic texture, and used in EPIC-95 3D simulations of the Taylor test. Good agreement was realized between the calculations and the post-test geometries in terms of major and minor side profiles and impact-interface footprints.

  8. A simplified model for estimating population-scale energy impacts of building envelope air-tightening and mechanical ventilation retrofits

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Logue, J. M.; Turner, W. J.N.; Walker, I. S.; Singer, B. C.

    2015-07-01

    Changing the air exchange rate of a home (the sum of the infiltration and mechanical ventilation airflow rates) affects the annual thermal conditioning energy. Large-scale changes to air exchange rates of the housing stock can significantly alter the residential sector’s energy consumption. However, the complexity of existing residential energy models is a barrier to the accurate quantification of the impact of policy changes on a state or national level.

  9. Impact of modeling Choices on Inventory and In-Cask Criticality Calculations for Forsmark 3 BWR Spent Fuel

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martinez-Gonzalez, Jesus S.; Ade, Brian J.; Bowman, Stephen M.; Gauld, Ian C.; Ilas, Germina; Marshall, William BJ J.

    2015-01-01

    Simulation of boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel depletion poses a challenge for nuclide inventory validation and nuclear criticality safety analyses. This challenge is due to the complex operating conditions and assembly design heterogeneities that characterize these nuclear systems. Fuel depletion simulations and in-cask criticality calculations are affected by (1) completeness of design information, (2) variability of operating conditions needed for modeling purposes, and (3) possible modeling choices. These effects must be identified, quantified, and ranked according to their significance. This paper presents an investigation of BWR fuel depletion using a complete set of actual design specifications and detailed operational data available for five operating cycles of the Swedish BWR Forsmark 3 reactor. The data includes detailed axial profiles of power, burnup, and void fraction in a very fine temporal mesh for a GE14 (10×10) fuel assembly. The specifications of this case can be used to assess the impacts of different modeling choices on inventory prediction and in-cask criticality, specifically regarding the key parameters that drive inventory and reactivity throughout fuel burnup. This study focused on the effects of the fidelity with which power history and void fraction distributions are modeled. The corresponding sensitivity of the reactivity in storage configurations is assessed, and the impacts of modeling choices on decay heat and inventory are addressed.

  10. Framework for Modeling High-Impact, Low-Frequency Power Grid Events to Support Risk-Informed Decisions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Veeramany, Arun; Unwin, Stephen D.; Coles, Garill A.; Dagle, Jeffery E.; Millard, W. David; Yao, Juan; Glantz, Clifford S.; Gourisetti, Sri Nikhil Gup

    2015-12-03

    Natural and man-made hazardous events resulting in loss of grid infrastructure assets challenge the electric power grid’s security and resilience. However, the planning and allocation of appropriate contingency resources for such events requires an understanding of their likelihood and the extent of their potential impact. Where these events are of low likelihood, a risk-informed perspective on planning can be problematic as there exists an insufficient statistical basis to directly estimate the probabilities and consequences of their occurrence. Since risk-informed decisions rely on such knowledge, a basis for modeling the risk associated with high-impact low frequency events (HILFs) is essential. Insights from such a model can inform where resources are most rationally and effectively expended. The present effort is focused on development of a HILF risk assessment framework. Such a framework is intended to provide the conceptual and overarching technical basis for the development of HILF risk models that can inform decision makers across numerous stakeholder sectors. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) 2014 Standard TPL-001-4 considers severe events for transmission reliability planning, but does not address events of such severity that they have the potential to fail a substantial fraction of grid assets over a region, such as geomagnetic disturbances (GMD), extreme seismic events, and coordinated cyber-physical attacks. These are beyond current planning guidelines. As noted, the risks associated with such events cannot be statistically estimated based on historic experience; however, there does exist a stable of risk modeling techniques for rare events that have proven of value across a wide range of engineering application domains. There is an active and growing interest in evaluating the value of risk management techniques in the State transmission planning and emergency response communities, some of this interest in the context of

  11. Calculating impacts of energy standards on energy demand in U.S. buildings with uncertainty in an integrated assessment model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Hathaway, John E.; Lansing, Carina S.; Liu, Ying; McJeon, Haewon C.; Moss, Richard H.; Patel, Pralit L.; Peterson, Marty J.; Rice, Jennie S.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2015-10-01

    In this paper, an integrated assessment model (IAM) uses a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The paper finds that aggressive building-energy codes and equipment standards are an effective, cost-saving way to reduce energy consumption in buildings and greenhouse gas emissions in U.S. states. This conclusion is robust to significant uncertainties in population, economic activity, climate, carbon prices, and technology performance and costs.

  12. An Update of the Analytical Groundwater Modeling to Assess Water Resource Impacts at the Afton Solar Energy Zone

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Quinn, John J.; Greer, Christopher B.; Carr, Adrianne E.

    2014-10-01

    The purpose of this study is to update a one-dimensional analytical groundwater flow model to examine the influence of potential groundwater withdrawal in support of utility-scale solar energy development at the Afton Solar Energy Zone (SEZ) as a part of the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM’s) Solar Energy Program. This report describes the modeling for assessing the drawdown associated with SEZ groundwater pumping rates for a 20-year duration considering three categories of water demand (high, medium, and low) based on technology-specific considerations. The 2012 modeling effort published in the Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Solar Energy Development in Six Southwestern States (Solar PEIS; BLM and DOE 2012) has been refined based on additional information described below in an expanded hydrogeologic discussion.

  13. Impacts of Modeled Provisions of H.R. 6 EH: The Energy Policy Act of 2005

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2005-01-01

    This report responds to a May 2, 2005, request by Chairman Pete Domenici and Ranking Member Jeff Bingaman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources for an assessment of the energy supply, consumption, import, price, and macroeconomic impacts of H.R. 6 EH, the Energy Policy Act of 2005, as passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on April 21, 2005.

  14. Modeling the resuspension of radionuclides in Ukranian regions impacted by Chernobyl fallout

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nair, S.K.; Thiessen, K.M.; Hoffman, F.O.

    1997-01-01

    Following the 1986 Chernobyl event, large amounts of radioactive materials were deposited in nearby areas. Concentrations of various radionuclides were measured in air and surface soil. To study the resuspension of radioactive particulate, three different exposure situations were developed on the basis of the collected data under the auspices of the international BIOMOVS II (BIOspheric MOdel Validation Study) project. Modelers were asked to predict seasonal air concentrations and resuspension factors at several locations at different distances from Chernobyl for six successive years following the accident. Measurements of radionuclide deposition on topsoil were provided for each site along with information on soil, vegetation, land use, surface roughness, meteorology, and climate. In this paper, the three exposure situations are described, along with the initial data set provided to the modelers; two modeling approaches used to make the endpoint predictions are also presented. After the model predictions were submitted, the measured air concentrations and resuspension factors were released to the modelers. Generally, the predictions were well within an order of magnitude of the measured values. Time-dependent trends in predictions and measurements were in good agreement with one of the models, which (a) explicitly accounted for loss processes in soil and (b) used calibration to improve its predictive capabilities. Reasons for variations between predictions and measurements, suggestions for the improvement of models, and conclusions from the model validation study are presented. 12 refs., 15 figs., 4 tabs.

  15. Dynamical properties measurements for asteroid, comet and meteorite material applicable to impact modeling and mitigation calculations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Furnish, M.D.; Boslough, M.B.; Gray, G.T. III; Remo, J.L.

    1994-07-01

    We describe methods for measuring dynamical properties for two material categories of interest in understanding large-scale extraterrestrial impacts: iron-nickel and underdense materials (e.g. snow). Particular material properties measured by the present methods include Hugoniot release paths and constitutive properties (stress vs. strain). The iron-nickel materials lend themselves well to conventional shock and quasi-static experiments. As examples, a suite of experiments is described including six impact tests (wave profile compression/release) over the stress range 2--20 GPa, metallography, quasi-static and split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) mechanical testing, and ultrasonic mapping and sound velocity measurements. Temperature sensitivity of the dynamic behavior was measured at high and low strain rates. Among the iron-nickel materials tested, an octahedrite was found to have behavior close to that of Armco iron under shock and quasi-static conditions, while an ataxite exhibited a significantly larger quasi-static yield strength than did the octahedrite or a hexahedrite. The underdense materials pose three primary experimental difficulties. First, the samples are friable; they can melt or sublimate during storage, preparation and testing. Second, they are brittle and crushable; they cannot withstand such treatment as traditional machining or launch in a gun system. Third, with increasing porosity the calculated Hugoniot density becomes rapidly more sensitive to errors in wave time-of-arrival measurements. Carefully chosen simulants eliminate preservation (friability) difficulties, but the other difficulties remain. A family of 36 impact tests was conducted on snow and snow simulants at Sandia, yielding reliable Hugoniot and reshock states, but limited release property information. Other methods for characterizing these materials are discussed.

  16. On the Path to SunShot: Utility Regulatory and Business Model Reforms for Addressing the Financial Impacts of Distributed Solar on Utilities

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    670 LBNL-1004371 Utility Regulatory and Business Model Reforms for Addressing the Financial Impacts of Distributed Solar on Utilities Cover photos (clockwise from top left): Solar Design Associates, Inc., NREL 08563; SolarReserve; Dennis Schroeder, NREL 30551; and iStock 000075760625 On the Path to SunShot: Utility Regulatory and Business Model Reforms for Addressing the Financial Impacts of Distributed Solar on Utilities Galen Barbose 1 , John Miller 2 , Ben Sigrin 2 , Emerson Reiter 2 ,

  17. Estimating Demand Response Load Impacts: Evaluation of BaselineLoad Models for Non-Residential Buildings in California

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coughlin, Katie; Piette, Mary Ann; Goldman, Charles; Kiliccote,Sila

    2008-01-01

    Both Federal and California state policymakers areincreasingly interested in developing more standardized and consistentapproaches to estimate and verify the load impacts of demand responseprograms and dynamic pricing tariffs. This study describes a statisticalanalysis of the performance of different models used to calculate thebaseline electric load for commercial buildings participating in ademand-response (DR) program, with emphasis onthe importance of weathereffects. During a DR event, a variety of adjustments may be made tobuilding operation, with the goal of reducing the building peak electricload. In order to determine the actual peak load reduction, an estimateof what the load would have been on the day of the event without any DRactions is needed. This baseline load profile (BLP) is key to accuratelyassessing the load impacts from event-based DR programs and may alsoimpact payment settlements for certain types of DR programs. We testedseven baseline models on a sample of 33 buildings located in California.These models can be loosely categorized into two groups: (1) averagingmethods, which use some linear combination of hourly load values fromprevious days to predict the load on the event, and (2) explicit weathermodels, which use a formula based on local hourly temperature to predictthe load. The models were tested both with and without morningadjustments, which use data from the day of the event to adjust theestimated BLP up or down.Key findings from this study are: - The accuracyof the BLP model currently used by California utilities to estimate loadreductions in several DR programs (i.e., hourly usage in highest 3 out of10 previous days) could be improved substantially if a morning adjustmentfactor were applied for weather-sensitive commercial and institutionalbuildings. - Applying a morning adjustment factor significantly reducesthe bias and improves the accuracy of all BLP models examined in oursample of buildings. - For buildings with low load

  18. Impacts of Modeled Recommendations of the National Commission on Energy Policy

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2005-01-01

    This report provides the Energy Information Administration's analysis of those National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP) energy policy recommendations that could be simulated using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).

  19. Modeling dust as component minerals in the Community Atmosphere Model: development of framework and impact on radiative forcing

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Scanza, Rachel; Mahowald, N.; Ghan, Steven J.; Zender, C. S.; Kok, J. F.; Liu, Xiaohong; Zhang, Y.; Albani, Samuel

    2015-01-01

    The mineralogy of desert dust is important due to its effect on radiation, clouds and biogeochemical cycling of trace nutrients. This study presents the simulation of dust radiative forcing as a function of both mineral composition and size at the global scale, using mineral soil maps for estimating emissions. Externally mixed mineral aerosols in the bulk aerosol module in the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4) and internally mixed mineral aerosols in the modal aerosol module in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 (CAM5) embedded in the Community Earth System Model version 1.0.5 (CESM) are speciated into common mineral componentsmorein place of total dust. The simulations with mineralogy are compared to available observations of mineral atmospheric distribution and deposition along with observations of clear-sky radiative forcing efficiency. Based on these simulations, we estimate the all-sky direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere as + 0.05 Wm? for both CAM4 and CAM5 simulations with mineralogy. We compare this to the radiative forcing from simulations of dust in release versions of CAM4 and CAM5 (+0.08 and +0.17 Wm?) and of dust with optimized optical properties, wet scavenging and particle size distribution in CAM4 and CAM5, -0.05 and -0.17 Wm?, respectively. The ability to correctly include the mineralogy of dust in climate models is hindered by its spatial and temporal variability as well as insufficient global in situ observations, incomplete and uncertain source mineralogies and the uncertainties associated with data retrieved from remote sensing methods.less

  20. Modeling dust as component minerals in the Community Atmosphere Model: development of framework and impact on radiative forcing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scanza, Rachel; Mahowald, N.; Ghan, Steven J.; Zender, C. S.; Kok, J. F.; Liu, Xiaohong; Zhang, Y.; Albani, Samuel

    2015-01-01

    The mineralogy of desert dust is important due to its effect on radiation, clouds and biogeochemical cycling of trace nutrients. This study presents the simulation of dust radiative forcing as a function of both mineral composition and size at the global scale, using mineral soil maps for estimating emissions. Externally mixed mineral aerosols in the bulk aerosol module in the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4) and internally mixed mineral aerosols in the modal aerosol module in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 (CAM5) embedded in the Community Earth System Model version 1.0.5 (CESM) are speciated into common mineral components in place of total dust. The simulations with mineralogy are compared to available observations of mineral atmospheric distribution and deposition along with observations of clear-sky radiative forcing efficiency. Based on these simulations, we estimate the all-sky direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere as + 0.05 Wm? for both CAM4 and CAM5 simulations with mineralogy. We compare this to the radiative forcing from simulations of dust in release versions of CAM4 and CAM5 (+0.08 and +0.17 Wm?) and of dust with optimized optical properties, wet scavenging and particle size distribution in CAM4 and CAM5, -0.05 and -0.17 Wm?, respectively. The ability to correctly include the mineralogy of dust in climate models is hindered by its spatial and temporal variability as well as insufficient global in situ observations, incomplete and uncertain source mineralogies and the uncertainties associated with data retrieved from remote sensing methods.

  1. Modeling dust as component minerals in the Community Atmosphere Model: development of framework and impact on radiative forcing

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Scanza, R. A.; Mahowald, N.; Ghan, S.; Zender, C. S.; Kok, J. F.; Liu, X.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-07-02

    The mineralogy of desert dust is important due to its effect on radiation, clouds and biogeochemical cycling of trace nutrients. This study presents the simulation of dust radiative forcing as a function of both mineral composition and size at the global scale using mineral soil maps for estimating emissions. Externally mixed mineral aerosols in the bulk aerosol module in the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4) and internally mixed mineral aerosols in the modal aerosol module in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 (CAM5) embedded in the Community Earth System Model version 1.0.5 (CESM) are speciated into common mineral componentsmore » in place of total dust. The simulations with mineralogy are compared to available observations of mineral atmospheric distribution and deposition along with observations of clear-sky radiative forcing efficiency. Based on these simulations, we estimate the all-sky direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere as +0.05 W m−2 for both CAM4 and CAM5 simulations with mineralogy and compare this both with simulations of dust in release versions of CAM4 and CAM5 (+0.08 and +0.17 W m−2) and of dust with optimized optical properties, wet scavenging and particle size distribution in CAM4 and CAM5, −0.05 and −0.17 W m−2, respectively. The ability to correctly include the mineralogy of dust in climate models is hindered by its spatial and temporal variability as well as insufficient global in-situ observations, incomplete and uncertain source mineralogies and the uncertainties associated with data retrieved from remote sensing methods.« less

  2. Modeling dust as component minerals in the Community Atmosphere Model: development of framework and impact on radiative forcing

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Scanza, R. A.; Mahowald, N.; Ghan, S.; Zender, C. S.; Kok, J. F.; Liu, X.; Zhang, Y.; Albani, S.

    2015-01-15

    The mineralogy of desert dust is important due to its effect on radiation, clouds and biogeochemical cycling of trace nutrients. This study presents the simulation of dust radiative forcing as a function of both mineral composition and size at the global scale, using mineral soil maps for estimating emissions. Externally mixed mineral aerosols in the bulk aerosol module in the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4) and internally mixed mineral aerosols in the modal aerosol module in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 (CAM5) embedded in the Community Earth System Model version 1.0.5 (CESM) are speciated into common mineral componentsmore » in place of total dust. The simulations with mineralogy are compared to available observations of mineral atmospheric distribution and deposition along with observations of clear-sky radiative forcing efficiency. Based on these simulations, we estimate the all-sky direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere as + 0.05 Wm−2 for both CAM4 and CAM5 simulations with mineralogy. We compare this to the radiative forcing from simulations of dust in release versions of CAM4 and CAM5 (+0.08 and +0.17 Wm−2) and of dust with optimized optical properties, wet scavenging and particle size distribution in CAM4 and CAM5, −0.05 and −0.17 Wm−2, respectively. The ability to correctly include the mineralogy of dust in climate models is hindered by its spatial and temporal variability as well as insufficient global in situ observations, incomplete and uncertain source mineralogies and the uncertainties associated with data retrieved from remote sensing methods.« less

  3. The impact of resolution upon entropy and information in coarse-grained models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Foley, Thomas T.; Shell, M. Scott; Noid, W. G.

    2015-12-28

    By eliminating unnecessary degrees of freedom, coarse-grained (CG) models tremendously facilitate numerical calculations and theoretical analyses of complex phenomena. However, their success critically depends upon the representation of the system and the effective potential that governs the CG degrees of freedom. This work investigates the relationship between the CG representation and the many-body potential of mean force (PMF), W, which is the appropriate effective potential for a CG model that exactly preserves the structural and thermodynamic properties of a given high resolution model. In particular, we investigate the entropic component of the PMF and its dependence upon the CG resolution. This entropic component, S{sub W}, is a configuration-dependent relative entropy that determines the temperature dependence of W. As a direct consequence of eliminating high resolution details from the CG model, the coarsening process transfers configurational entropy and information from the configuration space into S{sub W}. In order to further investigate these general results, we consider the popular Gaussian Network Model (GNM) for protein conformational fluctuations. We analytically derive the exact PMF for the GNM as a function of the CG representation. In the case of the GNM, −TS{sub W} is a positive, configuration-independent term that depends upon the temperature, the complexity of the protein interaction network, and the details of the CG representation. This entropic term demonstrates similar behavior for seven model proteins and also suggests, in each case, that certain resolutions provide a more efficient description of protein fluctuations. These results may provide general insight into the role of resolution for determining the information content, thermodynamic properties, and transferability of CG models. Ultimately, they may lead to a rigorous and systematic framework for optimizing the representation of CG models.

  4. Utilizing CLASIC observations and multiscale models to study the impact of improved Land surface representation on modeling cloud- convection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Niyogi, Devdutta S.

    2013-06-07

    The CLASIC experiment was conducted over the US southern great plains (SGP) in June 2007 with an objective to lead an enhanced understanding of the cumulus convection particularly as it relates to land surface conditions. This project was design to help assist with understanding the overall improvement of land atmosphere convection initiation representation of which is important for global and regional models. The study helped address one of the critical documented deficiency in the models central to the ARM objectives for cumulus convection initiation and particularly under summer time conditions. This project was guided by the scientific question building on the CLASIC theme questions: What is the effect of improved land surface representation on the ability of coupled models to simulate cumulus and convection initiation? The focus was on the US Southern Great Plains region. Since the CLASIC period was anomalously wet the strategy has been to use other periods and domains to develop the comparative assessment for the CLASIC data period, and to understand the mechanisms of the anomalous wet conditions on the tropical systems and convection over land. The data periods include the IHOP 2002 field experiment that was over roughly same domain as the CLASIC in the SGP, and some of the DOE funded Ameriflux datasets.

  5. Evaluation of PV performance models and their impact on project risk.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stein, Joshua S.; Hansen, Clifford W.; Cameron, Christopher P.

    2010-12-01

    Photovoltaic systems are often priced in $/W{sub p}, where Wp refers to the DC power rating of the modules at Standard Test Conditions (1000 W/m{sup 2}, 25 C cell temperature) and $ refers to the installed cost of the system. However, the true value of the system is in the energy it will produce in kWhs, not the power rating. System energy production is a function of the system design and location, the mounting configuration, the power conversion system, and the module technology, as well as the solar resource. Even if all other variables are held constant, the annual energy yield (kWh/kW{sup p}) will vary among module technologies because of differences in response to low-light levels and temperature. Understanding energy yield is a key part of understanding system value. System performance models are used during project development to estimate the expected output of PV systems for a given design and location. Performance modeling is normally done by the system designer/system integrator. Often, an independent engineer will also model system output during a due diligence review of a project. A variety of system performance models are available. The most commonly used modeling tool for project development and due diligence in the United States is probably PVsyst, while those seeking a quick answer to expected energy production may use PVWatts. In this paper, we examine the variation in predicted energy output among modeling tools and users and compare that to measured output.

  6. Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Martinich, Jeremy; Sarofim, Marcus; DeAngelo, B. J.; McFarland, Jim; Jantarasami, Lesley; Shouse, Kate C.; Crimmins, Allison; Ohrel, Sara; Li, Jia

    2015-07-01

    The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) modeling exercise is a unique contribution to the scientific literature on climate change impacts, economic damages, and risk analysis that brings together multiple, national-scale models of impacts and damages in an integrated and consistent fashion to estimate climate change impacts, damages, and the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the United States. The CIRA project uses three consistent socioeconomic, emissions, and climate scenarios across all models to estimate the benefits of GHG mitigation policies: a Business As Usual (BAU) and two policy scenarios with radiative forcing (RF) stabilization targets of 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 in 2100. CIRA was also designed to specifically examine the sensitivity of results to uncertainties around climate sensitivity and differences in model structure. The goals of CIRA project are to 1) build a multi-model framework to produce estimates of multiple risks and impacts in the U.S., 2) determine to what degree risks and damages across sectors may be lowered from a BAU to policy scenarios, 3) evaluate key sources of uncertainty along the causal chain, and 4) provide information for multiple audiences and clearly communicate the risks and damages of climate change and the potential benefits of mitigation. This paper describes the motivations, goals, and design of the CIRA modeling exercise and introduces the subsequent papers in this special issue.

  7. Modeled Impacts of Cover Crops and Vegetative Barriers on Corn Stover Availability and Soil Quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ian J. Bonner; David J. Muth Jr.; Joshua B. Koch; Douglas L. Karlen

    2014-06-01

    Environmentally benign, economically viable, and socially acceptable agronomic strategies are needed to launch a sustainable lignocellulosic biofuel industry. Our objective was to demonstrate a landscape planning process that can ensure adequate supplies of corn (Zea mays L.) stover feedstock while protecting and improving soil quality. The Landscape Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) was used to develop land use strategies that were then scaled up for five U.S. Corn Belt states (Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota) to illustrate the impact that could be achieved. Our results show an annual sustainable stover supply of 194 million Mg without exceeding soil erosion T values or depleting soil organic carbon [i.e., soil conditioning index (SCI)?>?0] when no-till, winter cover crop, and vegetative barriers were incorporated into the landscape. A second, more rigorous conservation target was set to enhance soil quality while sustainably harvesting stover. By requiring erosion to be <1/2 T and the SCI-organic matter (OM) subfactor to be >?0, the annual sustainable quantity of harvestable stover dropped to148 million Mg. Examining removal rates by state and soil resource showed that soil capability class and slope generally determined the effectiveness of the three conservation practices and the resulting sustainable harvest rate. This emphasizes that sustainable biomass harvest must be based on subfield management decisions to ensure soil resources are conserved or enhanced, while providing sufficient biomass feedstock to support the economic growth of bioenergy enterprises.

  8. NSR&D FY14 Final Report: Friction/Impact Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Duan Zhong; Ma, Xia; Giguere, Paul T.

    2014-09-19

    The LANL-developed CartaBlanca code uses advanced techniques, including the Dual Domain Material Point (DDMP) method, to calculate fluid, solid motions and fluid-structure interactions. In the last year we have implemented the ViscoSCRAM material model in CartaBlanca based on Clements Abaqus-Explicit Finite Element implementation. In this fiscal year, we study numerical properties of this implementation. To consider coupled mechanical, thermal and chemical effects, we have implemented Hensons HE decomposition model to couple with the thermal and mechanical packages in CartaBlanca. We have also developed porous media flow modules to consider heat convection effects of the reaction product gas inside pores of HE. The next immediate step is to perform numerical simulations to study interactions among these different mechanisms. We have started such calculation and obtained interesting initial results at the end of this fiscal year.

  9. Impacts of supersymmetric higher derivative terms on inflation models in supergravity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aoki, Shuntaro; Yamada, Yusuke

    2015-07-14

    We show the effects of supersymmetric higher derivative terms on inflation models in supergravity. The results show that such terms generically modify the effective kinetic coefficient of the inflaton during inflation if the cut off scale of the higher derivative operators is sufficiently small. In such a case, the η-problem in supergravity does not occur, and we find that the effective potential of the inflaton generically becomes a power type potential with a power smaller than two.

  10. Data collection handbook to support modeling the impacts of radioactive material in soil

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yu, C.; Cheng, J.J.; Jones, L.G.; Wang, Y.Y.; Faillace, E.; Loureiro, C.; Chia, Y.P.

    1993-04-01

    A pathway analysis computer code called RESRAD has been developed for implementing US Department of Energy Residual Radioactive Material Guidelines. Hydrogeological, meteorological, geochemical, geometrical (size, area, depth), and material-related (soil, concrete) parameters are used in the RESRAD code. This handbook discusses parameter definitions, typical ranges, variations, measurement methodologies, and input screen locations. Although this handbook was developed primarily to support the application of RESRAD, the discussions and values are valid for other model applications.

  11. Modeling the Impacts of Solar Distributed Generation on U.S. Water Resources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Amanda, Smith; Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Jaron, Peck

    2015-01-01

    Distributed electric power generation technologies typically use little or no water per unit of electrical energy produced; in particular, renewable energy sources such as solar PV systems do not require cooling systems and present an opportunity to reduce water usage for power generation. Within the US, the fuel mix used for power generation varies regionally, and certain areas use more water for power generation than others. The need to reduce water usage for power generation is even more urgent in view of climate change uncertainties. In this paper, we present an example case within the state of Tennessee, one of the top four states in water consumption for power generation and one of the states with little or no potential for developing centralized renewable energy generations. The potential for developing PV generation within Knox County, Tennessee, is studied, along with the potential for reducing water withdrawal and consumption within the Tennessee Valley stream region. Electric power generation plants in the region are quantified for their electricity production and expected water withdrawal and consumption over one year, where electrical generation data is provided over one year and water usage is modeled based on the cooling system(s) in use. Potential solar PV electrical production is modeled based on LiDAR data and weather data for the same year. Our proposed methodology can be summarized as follows: First, the potential solar generation is compared against the local grid demand. Next, electrical generation reductions are specified that would result in a given reduction in water withdrawal and a given reduction in water consumption, and compared with the current water withdrawal and consumption rates for the existing fuel mix. The increase in solar PV development that would produce an equivalent amount of power, is determined. In this way, we consider how targeted local actions may affect the larger stream region through thoughtful energy development

  12. Dynamic modeling of injection-induced fault reactivation and ground motion and impact on surface structures and human perception

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rutqvist, Jonny; Cappa, Frederic; Rinaldi, Antonio P.; Godano, Maxime

    2014-12-31

    We summarize recent modeling studies of injection-induced fault reactivation, seismicity, and its potential impact on surface structures and nuisance to the local human population. We used coupled multiphase fluid flow and geomechanical numerical modeling, dynamic wave propagation modeling, seismology theories, and empirical vibration criteria from mining and construction industries. We first simulated injection-induced fault reactivation, including dynamic fault slip, seismic source, wave propagation, and ground vibrations. From co-seismic average shear displacement and rupture area, we determined the moment magnitude to about Mw = 3 for an injection-induced fault reactivation at a depth of about 1000 m. We then analyzed the ground vibration results in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and frequency content, with comparison to the U.S. Bureau of Mines vibration criteria for cosmetic damage to buildings, as well as human-perception vibration limits. For the considered synthetic Mw = 3 event, our analysis showed that the short duration, high frequency ground motion may not cause any significant damage to surface structures, and would not cause, in this particular case, upward CO2 leakage, but would certainly be felt by the local population.

  13. Dynamic modeling of injection-induced fault reactivation and ground motion and impact on surface structures and human perception

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Rutqvist, Jonny; Cappa, Frederic; Rinaldi, Antonio P.; Godano, Maxime

    2014-12-31

    We summarize recent modeling studies of injection-induced fault reactivation, seismicity, and its potential impact on surface structures and nuisance to the local human population. We used coupled multiphase fluid flow and geomechanical numerical modeling, dynamic wave propagation modeling, seismology theories, and empirical vibration criteria from mining and construction industries. We first simulated injection-induced fault reactivation, including dynamic fault slip, seismic source, wave propagation, and ground vibrations. From co-seismic average shear displacement and rupture area, we determined the moment magnitude to about Mw = 3 for an injection-induced fault reactivation at a depth of about 1000 m. We then analyzed themore » ground vibration results in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and frequency content, with comparison to the U.S. Bureau of Mines’ vibration criteria for cosmetic damage to buildings, as well as human-perception vibration limits. For the considered synthetic Mw = 3 event, our analysis showed that the short duration, high frequency ground motion may not cause any significant damage to surface structures, and would not cause, in this particular case, upward CO2 leakage, but would certainly be felt by the local population.« less

  14. Natural Gas Variability In California: Environmental Impacts And Device Performance Combustion Modeling of Pollutant Emissions From a Residential Cooking Range

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tonse, S. R.; Singer, B. C.

    2011-07-01

    As part of a larger study of liquefied natural gas impacts on device performance and pollutant emissions for existing equipment in California, this report describes a cmoputer modeling study of a partially premixed flame issueing from a single cooktop burner port. The model consisted of a reactive computational fluid dynamics three-dimensional spatial grid and a 71-species chemical mechanism with propane combustion capability. Simulations were conducted with a simplified fuel mixture containing methane, ethane, and propane in proportions that yield properties similar to fuels distributed throughout much of California now and in recent years (baseline fuel), as well as with two variations of simulated liquefied natural gas blends. A variety of simulations were conducted with baseline fuel to explore the effect of several key parameters on pollutant formation and other flame characteristics. Simulations started with fuel and air issuing through the burner port, igniting, and continuing until the flame was steady with time. Conditions at this point were analyzed to understand fuel, secondary air and reaction product flows, regions of pollutant formation, and exhaust concentrations of carbon monoxide, nitric oxide and formaldehyde. A sensitivity study was conducted, varying the inflow parameters of this baseline gs about real-world operating conditions. Flame properties responded as expected from reactive flow theory. In the simulation, carbon monoxide levels were influenced more by the mixture's inflow velocity than by the gas-to-air ratio in the mixture issuing from the inflow port. Additional simulations were executed at two inflow conditions - high heat release and medium heat release - to examine the impact of replacing the baseline gas with two mixtures representative of liquefied natural gas. Flame properties and pollutant generation rates were very similar among the three fuel mixtures.

  15. Integration of Nontraditional Isotopic Systems Into Reaction-Transport Models of EGS For Exploration, Evaluation of Water-Rock Interaction, and Impacts of Water Chemistry on Reservoir Sustainability

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Nontraditional Isotopic Systems Into Reaction-Transport Models of EGS For Exploration, Evaluation of Water-Rock Interaction, and Impacts of Water Chemistry on Reservoir Sustainability Eric Sonnenthal Lawrence Berkeley National Lab Track 3 Project Officer: Eric Hass Total Project Funding: $512K April 23, 2013 This presentation does not contain any proprietary confidential, or otherwise restricted information. 2 | US DOE Geothermal Office eere.energy.gov Relevance/Impact of Research Challenges,

  16. Evaluation of impact limiter performance during end-on and slapdown drop tests of a one-third scale model storage/transport cask system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoshimura, H.R.; Bronowski, D.R.; Uncapher, W.L.; Attaway, S.W.; Bateman, V.I.; Carne, T.G.; Gregory, D.L. ); Huerta, M. )

    1990-12-01

    This report describes drop testing of a one-third scale model shipping cask system. Two casks were designed and fabricated by Transnuclear, Inc., to ship spent fuel from the former Nuclear Fuel Services West Valley reprocessing facility in New York to the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory for a long-term spent fuel dry storage demonstration project. As part of the NRC's regulatory certification process, one-third scale model tests were performed to obtain experimental data on impact limiter performance during impact testing. The objectives of the testing program were to (1) obtain deceleration and displacement information for the cask and impact limiter system, (2) obtain dynamic force-displacement data for the impact limiters, (3) verify the integrity of the impact limiter retention system, and (4) examine the crush behavior of the limiters. Two 30-ft (9-m) drop tests were conducted on a mass model of the cask body and scaled balsa and redwood-filled impact limiters. This report describes the results of both tests in terms of measured decelerations, posttest deformation measurements, and the general structural response of the system. 3 refs., 32 figs.

  17. ON THE IMPACT OF SUPER RESOLUTION WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiswell, S

    2009-01-11

    Assimilation of radar velocity and precipitation fields into high-resolution model simulations can improve precipitation forecasts with decreased 'spin-up' time and improve short-term simulation of boundary layer winds (Benjamin, 2004 & 2007; Xiao, 2008) which is critical to improving plume transport forecasts. Accurate description of wind and turbulence fields is essential to useful atmospheric transport and dispersion results, and any improvement in the accuracy of these fields will make consequence assessment more valuable during both routine operation as well as potential emergency situations. During 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) radars implemented a significant upgrade which increased the real-time level II data resolution to 8 times their previous 'legacy' resolution, from 1 km range gate and 1.0 degree azimuthal resolution to 'super resolution' 250 m range gate and 0.5 degree azimuthal resolution (Fig 1). These radar observations provide reflectivity, velocity and returned power spectra measurements at a range of up to 300 km (460 km for reflectivity) at a frequency of 4-5 minutes and yield up to 13.5 million point observations per level in super-resolution mode. The migration of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D radars to super resolution is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current operational mesoscale model domains utilize grid spacing several times larger than the legacy data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of super resolution reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution is investigated here to determine the impact of the improved data resolution on model predictions.

  18. Compartment modeling of dynamic brain PETThe impact of scatter corrections on parameter errors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hggstrm, Ida Karlsson, Mikael; Larsson, Anne; Schmidtlein, C. Ross

    2014-11-01

    Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of scatter and its correction on kinetic parameters in dynamic brain positron emission tomography (PET) tumor imaging. The 2-tissue compartment model was used, and two different reconstruction methods and two scatter correction (SC) schemes were investigated. Methods: The GATE Monte Carlo (MC) software was used to perform 2 15 full PET scan simulations of a voxelized head phantom with inserted tumor regions. The two sets of kinetic parameters of all tissues were chosen to represent the 2-tissue compartment model for the tracer 3?-deoxy-3?-({sup 18}F)fluorothymidine (FLT), and were denoted FLT{sub 1} and FLT{sub 2}. PET data were reconstructed with both 3D filtered back-projection with reprojection (3DRP) and 3D ordered-subset expectation maximization (OSEM). Images including true coincidences with attenuation correction (AC) and true+scattered coincidences with AC and with and without one of two applied SC schemes were reconstructed. Kinetic parameters were estimated by weighted nonlinear least squares fitting of image derived timeactivity curves. Calculated parameters were compared to the true input to the MC simulations. Results: The relative parameter biases for scatter-eliminated data were 15%, 16%, 4%, 30%, 9%, and 7% (FLT{sub 1}) and 13%, 6%, 1%, 46%, 12%, and 8% (FLT{sub 2}) for K{sub 1}, k{sub 2}, k{sub 3}, k{sub 4}, V{sub a}, and K{sub i}, respectively. As expected, SC was essential for most parameters since omitting it increased biases by 10 percentage points on average. SC was not found necessary for the estimation of K{sub i} and k{sub 3}, however. There was no significant difference in parameter biases between the two investigated SC schemes or from parameter biases from scatter-eliminated PET data. Furthermore, neither 3DRP nor OSEM yielded the smallest parameter biases consistently although there was a slight favor for 3DRP which produced less biased k{sub 3} and K{sub i} estimates while

  19. Utility Regulation and Business Model Reforms for Advancing the Financial Impacts of Distributed Solar on Utilities

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Implementing a range of alternative utility-rate reforms could minimize solar value losses at increasing levels of distributed PV penetration (see Barbose et al. 2016). In conjunction with the technical issues described above, the connections between distributed PV and electric distribution systems hinge on utility business models and regulations. As PV deployment has leapt forward and presaged a truly significant solar contribution, however, it has become clear that utilities’ traditional treatment of distributed PV cannot be taken for granted—nor can the future value and deployment of distributed PV. At the heart of this issue is net energy metering (NEM). Under NEM, PV owners can sell to a utility the electricity they generate but cannot consume on site, often at full retail rates. This widespread policy has helped drive the rapid growth of distributed PV, but the success has raised concerns about the potential for higher electricity rates and cost-shifting to non-solar customers, reduced utility shareholder profitability, reduced utility earnings opportunities, and inefficient resource allocation. The resulting reform efforts have revolved largely around changing NEM rules and retail rate structures. Most of the reforms to date address NEM concerns by reducing the benefits provided to distributed PV customers and thus constraining PV deployment. A new analysis estimates that eliminating NEM nationwide, by compensating exports of PV electricity at wholesale rather than retail rates would cut cumulative distributed PV deployment by 20% in 2050 compared with a continuation of current policies. This would slow the PV cost reductions that arise from larger scale and market certainty. It could also thwart achievement of the SunShot deployment goals even if the initiative’s cost targets are achieved. This undesirable prospect is stimulating the development of alternative reform strategies that address concerns about distributed PV compensation without

  20. Utility Regulation and Business Model Reforms for Addressing the Financial Impacts of Distributed Solar on Utilities

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Implementing a range of alternative utility-rate reforms could minimize solar value losses at increasing levels of distributed PV penetration (see Barbose et al. 2016). In conjunction with the technical issues described above, the connections between distributed PV and electric distribution systems hinge on utility business models and regulations. As PV deployment has leapt forward and presaged a truly significant solar contribution, however, it has become clear that utilities’ traditional treatment of distributed PV cannot be taken for granted—nor can the future value and deployment of distributed PV. At the heart of this issue is net energy metering (NEM). Under NEM, PV owners can sell to a utility the electricity they generate but cannot consume on site, often at full retail rates. This widespread policy has helped drive the rapid growth of distributed PV, but the success has raised concerns about the potential for higher electricity rates and cost-shifting to non-solar customers, reduced utility shareholder profitability, reduced utility earnings opportunities, and inefficient resource allocation. The resulting reform efforts have revolved largely around changing NEM rules and retail rate structures. Most of the reforms to date address NEM concerns by reducing the benefits provided to distributed PV customers and thus constraining PV deployment. A new analysis estimates that eliminating NEM nationwide, by compensating exports of PV electricity at wholesale rather than retail rates would cut cumulative distributed PV deployment by 20% in 2050 compared with a continuation of current policies. This would slow the PV cost reductions that arise from larger scale and market certainty. It could also thwart achievement of the SunShot deployment goals even if the initiative’s cost targets are achieved. This undesirable prospect is stimulating the development of alternative reform strategies that address concerns about distributed PV compensation without

  1. he Impact of Primary Marine Aerosol on Atmospheric Chemistry, Radiation and Climate: A CCSM Model Development Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Keene, William C.; Long, Michael S.

    2013-05-20

    marine aerosol production on the microphysical properties of aerosol populations and clouds over the ocean and the corresponding direct and indirect effects on radiative transfer; (2) atmospheric burdens of reactive halogen species and their impacts on O3, NOx, OH, DMS, and particulate non-sea-salt SO42-; and (3) the global production and influences of marine-derived particulate organic carbon. The model reproduced major characteristics of the marine aerosol system and demonstrated the potential sensitivity of global, decadal-scale climate metrics to multiphase marine-derived components of Earth's troposphere. Due to the combined computational burden of the coupled system, the currently available computational resources were the limiting factor preventing the adequate statistical analysis of the overall impact that multiphase chemistry might have on climate-scale radiative transfer and climate.

  2. A global model simulation for 3-D radiative transfer impact on surface hydrology over the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Lee, W.-L.; Gu, Y.; Liou, K. N.; Leung, L. R.; Hsu, H.-H.

    2015-05-19

    We investigate 3-D mountain effects on solar flux distributions and their impact on surface hydrology over the western United States, specifically the Rocky Mountains and the Sierra Nevada, using the global CCSM4 (Community Climate System Model version 4; Community Atmosphere Model/Community Land Model – CAM4/CLM4) with a 0.23° × 0.31° resolution for simulations over 6 years. In a 3-D radiative transfer parameterization, we have updated surface topography data from a resolution of 1 km to 90 m to improve parameterization accuracy. In addition, we have also modified the upward-flux deviation (3-D–PP (plane-parallel)) adjustment to ensure that the energy balance atmore » the surface is conserved in global climate simulations based on 3-D radiation parameterization. We show that deviations in the net surface fluxes are not only affected by 3-D mountains but also influenced by feedbacks of cloud and snow in association with the long-term simulations. Deviations in sensible heat and surface temperature generally follow the patterns of net surface solar flux. The monthly snow water equivalent (SWE) deviations show an increase in lower elevations due to reduced snowmelt, leading to a reduction in cumulative runoff. Over higher-elevation areas, negative SWE deviations are found because of increased solar radiation available at the surface. Simulated precipitation increases for lower elevations, while it decreases for higher elevations, with a minimum in April. Liquid runoff significantly decreases at higher elevations after April due to reduced SWE and precipitation.« less

  3. Modeling the impact of bubbling bed hydrodynamics on tar yield and its fluctuations during biomass fast pyrolysis

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Xiong, Qingang; Ramirez, Emilio; Pannala, Sreekanth; Daw, C. Stuart; Xu, Fei

    2015-10-09

    The impact of bubbling bed hydrodynamics on temporal variations in the exit tar yield for biomass fast pyrolysis was investigated using computational simulations of an experimental laboratory-scale reactor. A multi-fluid computational fluid dynamics model was employed to simulate the differential conservation equations in the reactor, and this was combined with a multi-component, multi-step pyrolysis kinetics scheme for biomass to account for chemical reactions. The predicted mean tar yields at the reactor exit appear to match corresponding experimental observations. Parametric studies predicted that increasing the fluidization velocity should improve the mean tar yield but increase its temporal variations. Increases in themore » mean tar yield coincide with reducing the diameter of sand particles or increasing the initial sand bed height. However, trends in tar yield variability are more complex than the trends in mean yield. The standard deviation in tar yield reaches a maximum with changes in sand particle size. As a result, the standard deviation in tar yield increases with the increases in initial bed height in freely bubbling state, while reaches a maximum in slugging state.« less

  4. Modeling the impact of bubbling bed hydrodynamics on tar yield and its fluctuations during biomass fast pyrolysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiong, Qingang; Ramirez, Emilio; Pannala, Sreekanth; Daw, C. Stuart; Xu, Fei

    2015-10-09

    The impact of bubbling bed hydrodynamics on temporal variations in the exit tar yield for biomass fast pyrolysis was investigated using computational simulations of an experimental laboratory-scale reactor. A multi-fluid computational fluid dynamics model was employed to simulate the differential conservation equations in the reactor, and this was combined with a multi-component, multi-step pyrolysis kinetics scheme for biomass to account for chemical reactions. The predicted mean tar yields at the reactor exit appear to match corresponding experimental observations. Parametric studies predicted that increasing the fluidization velocity should improve the mean tar yield but increase its temporal variations. Increases in the mean tar yield coincide with reducing the diameter of sand particles or increasing the initial sand bed height. However, trends in tar yield variability are more complex than the trends in mean yield. The standard deviation in tar yield reaches a maximum with changes in sand particle size. As a result, the standard deviation in tar yield increases with the increases in initial bed height in freely bubbling state, while reaches a maximum in slugging state.

  5. A global model simulation for 3-D radiative transfer impact on surface hydrology over Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Lee, W. -L.; Gu, Y.; Liou, K. N.; Leung, L. R.; Hsu, H. -H.

    2014-12-15

    We investigate 3-D mountain effects on solar flux distributions and their impact on surface hydrology over the Western United States, specifically the Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada using CCSM4 (CAM4/CLM4) global model with a 0.23° × 0.31° resolution for simulations over 6 years. In 3-D radiative transfer parameterization, we have updated surface topography data from a resolution of 1 km to 90 m to improve parameterization accuracy. In addition, we have also modified the upward-flux deviation [3-D - PP (plane-parallel)] adjustment to ensure that energy balance at the surface is conserved in global climate simulations based on 3-D radiation parameterization.more » We show that deviations of the net surface fluxes are not only affected by 3-D mountains, but also influenced by feedbacks of cloud and snow in association with the long-term simulations. Deviations in sensible heat and surface temperature generally follow the patterns of net surface solar flux. The monthly snow water equivalent (SWE) deviations show an increase in lower elevations due to reduced snowmelt, leading to a reduction in cumulative runoff. Over higher elevation areas, negative SWE deviations are found because of increased solar radiation available at the surface. Simulated precipitation increases for lower elevations, while decreases for higher elevations with a minimum in April. Liquid runoff significantly decreases in higher elevations after April due to reduced SWE and precipitation.« less

  6. A Large-Scale, High-Resolution Hydrological Model Parameter Data Set for Climate Change Impact Assessment for the Conterminous US

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oubeidillah, Abdoul A; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Naz, Bibi S; Tootle, Glenn

    2014-01-01

    To extend geographical coverage, refine spatial resolution, and improve modeling efficiency, a computation- and data-intensive effort was conducted to organize a comprehensive hydrologic dataset with post-calibrated model parameters for hydro-climate impact assessment. Several key inputs for hydrologic simulation including meteorologic forcings, soil, land class, vegetation, and elevation were collected from multiple best-available data sources and organized for 2107 hydrologic subbasins (8-digit hydrologic units, HUC8s) in the conterminous United States at refined 1/24 (~4 km) spatial resolution. Using high-performance computing for intensive model calibration, a high-resolution parameter dataset was prepared for the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC simulation was driven by DAYMET daily meteorological forcing and was calibrated against USGS WaterWatch monthly runoff observations for each HUC8. The results showed that this new parameter dataset may help reasonably simulate runoff at most US HUC8 subbasins. Based on this exhaustive calibration effort, it is now possible to accurately estimate the resources required for further model improvement across the entire conterminous United States. We anticipate that through this hydrologic parameter dataset, the repeated effort of fundamental data processing can be lessened, so that research efforts can emphasize the more challenging task of assessing climate change impacts. The pre-organized model parameter dataset will be provided to interested parties to support further hydro-climate impact assessment.

  7. DOE Announces Webinars on an Offshore Wind Economic Impacts Model, Resources for Tribal Energy Efficiency Projects, and More

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE's webinars include information on the economic impact of offshore wind, tools to develop better clean energy financing programs, and more.

  8. A method for the assessment of site-specific economic impacts of commercial and industrial biomass energy facilities. A handbook and computer model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-10-01

    A handbook on ``A Method for the Assessment of Site-specific Econoomic Impacts of Industrial and Commercial Biomass Energy Facilities`` has been prepared by Resource Systems Group Inc. under contract to the Southeastern Regional Biomass Energy Program (SERBEP). The handbook includes a user-friendly Lotus 123 spreadsheet which calculates the economic impacts of biomass energy facilities. The analysis uses a hybrid approach, combining direct site-specific data provided by the user, with indirect impact multipliers from the US Forest Service IMPLAN input/output model for each state. Direct economic impacts are determined primarily from site-specific data and indirect impacts are determined from the IMPLAN multipliers. The economic impacts are given in terms of income, employment, and state and federal taxes generated directly by the specific facility and by the indirect economic activity associated with each project. A worksheet is provided which guides the user in identifying and entering the appropriate financial data on the plant to be evaluated. The WLAN multipliers for each state are included in a database within the program. The multipliers are applied automatically after the user has entered the site-specific data and the state in which the facility is located. Output from the analysis includes a summary of direct and indirect income, employment and taxes. Case studies of large and small wood energy facilities and an ethanol plant are provided as examples to demonstrate the method. Although the handbook and program are intended for use by those with no previous experience in economic impact analysis, suggestions are given for the more experienced user who may wish to modify the analysis techniques.

  9. Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers, impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Popp, Alexander; Rose, Steven K.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Dietrich, Jan P.; Wise, Marshall A.; Stehfest, Eike; Humpenoder, Florian; Kyle, G. Page; Van Vliet, Jasper; Bauer, Nico; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Klein, David; Kriegler, Elmar

    2014-04-01

    This study is a model comparison assessing the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system and the interaction with other land use based mitigation options in the context of the EMF 27 project. We compare and evaluate results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE). All three models project that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues are a potentially important and cost-effective component of the energy system. But bioenergy deployment levels and feedstock composition vary notably across models as do the implications for land-use and greenhouse gas emissions and the interaction with other land use based mitigation measures. Despite numerous model differences, we identify a few that are likely contributing to differences in land-use and emissions attributable to energy crop deployment.

  10. Recovery Act : Heterogeneous Feed Biorefinery Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schofield, Richard

    2015-03-15

    To overcome the hurdles associated with introducing a new technology, Enerkem applied to the US DOE for grant assistance with its Pontotoc, Mississippi, biorefinery under the DOE’s Demonstration of Integrated Biorefinery Operations FOA. Consistent with Enerkem’s strategic approach, the project proposed uses post sorted municipal solid waste blended with other forest residue. The proposed biorefinery is to be located within the boundaries of a working landfill, thus simplifying many aspects of environmental permitting while also reducing feedstock acquisition and transportation costs. An economic impact analysis was conducted using an adaptation of the US Department of Energy’s JEDI (Jobs and Economic Development Impact) model for an ethanol-producing biorefinery. The JEDI model, which does not have a thermochemical processing option, had to be configured to reflect a biomass feedstock and was thus adapted by Enerkem to account for the unique feedstock requirements and operations of the Project. According to this model, development, construction, and 2 years of operation of the biorefinery require an investment of approximately $140 million. Also, a construction period of 18 months will create significant direct and indirect employment. Indirect employment includes steel manufacturers, construction materials manufacturers, material shipping, equipment manufacturers and fabrication, etc. During the construction phase of the Project, 210 total jobs are expected to be created, including 145 direct jobs and 72 indirect or induced jobs. During the operating period, 131 jobs would be created, 95 of which are direct. It is anticipated that the project will create at least 10 new jobs (included in the above figures and in addition to the JEDI data) in the sorting and recycling sector, since the project will require operations in sorting MSW since valuable ferrous, nonferrous and recyclable plastic materials will be sorted from MSW as part of the process that isolates

  11. Microsoft Word - NRAP-TRS-III-00X-2016_No-Impact Threshold Values for Groundwater Reduced-Order Models.final.2016.docx

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    No-Impact Threshold Values for Groundwater Reduced-Order Models 28 January 2016 Office of Fossil Energy NRAP-TRS-III-002-2016 Disclaimer This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus,

  12. Combined measurement and modeling of the hydrological impact of hydraulic redistribution using CLM4.5 at eight AmeriFlux sites

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Fu, Congsheng; Wang, Guiling; Goulden, Michael L.; Scott, Russell L.; Bible, Kenneth; G. Cardon, Zoe

    2016-05-17

    Effects of hydraulic redistribution (HR) on hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological processes have been demonstrated in the field, but the current generation of standard earth system models does not include a representation of HR. Though recent studies have examined the effect of incorporating HR into land surface models, few (if any) have done cross-site comparisons for contrasting climate regimes and multiple vegetation types via the integration of measurement and modeling. Here, we incorporated the HR scheme of Ryel et al. (2002) into the NCAR Community Land Model Version 4.5 (CLM4.5), and examined the ability of the resulting hybrid model to capture themore » magnitude of HR flux and/or soil moisture dynamics from which HR can be directly inferred, to assess the impact of HR on land surface water and energy budgets, and to explore how the impact may depend on climate regimes and vegetation conditions. Eight AmeriFlux sites with contrasting climate regimes and multiple vegetation types were studied, including the Wind River Crane site in Washington State, the Santa Rita Mesquite savanna site in southern Arizona, and six sites along the Southern California Climate Gradient. HR flux, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture were properly simulated in the present study, even in the face of various uncertainties. Our cross-ecosystem comparison showed that the timing, magnitude, and direction (upward or downward) of HR vary across ecosystems, and incorporation of HR into CLM4.5 improved the model-measurement matches of evapotranspiration, Bowen ratio, and soil moisture particularly during dry seasons. Lastly, our results also reveal that HR has important hydrological impact in ecosystems that have a pronounced dry season but are not overall so dry that sparse vegetation and very low soil moisture limit HR.« less

  13. Economic impacts study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brunsen, W.; Worley, W.; Frost, E.

    1988-09-30

    This is a progress report on the first phase of a project to measure the economic impacts of a rapidly changing U.S. target base. The purpose of the first phase is to designate and test the macroeconomic impact analysis model. Criteria were established for a decision-support model. Additional criteria were defined for an interactive macroeconomic impact analysis model. After a review of several models, the Economic Impact Forecast System model of the U.S. Army Construction Research Laboratory was selected as the appropriate input-output tool that can address local and regional economic analysis. The model was applied to five test cases to demonstrate its utility and define possible revisions to meet project criteria. A plan for EIFS access was defined at three levels. Objectives and tasks for scenario refinement are proposed.

  14. Development of a Kelp-type Structure Module in a Coastal Ocean Model to Assess the Hydrodynamic Impact of Seawater Uranium Extraction Technology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Taiping; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Long, Wen; Gill, Gary A.

    2014-02-07

    In recent years, with the rapid growth of global energy demand, the interest in extracting uranium from seawater for nuclear energy has been renewed. While extracting seawater uranium is not yet commercially viable, it serves as a “backstop” to the conventional uranium resources and provides an essentially unlimited supply of uranium resource. With recent advances in seawater uranium extraction technology, extracting uranium from seawater could be economically feasible when the extraction devices are deployed at a large scale (e.g., several hundred km2). There is concern however that the large scale deployment of adsorbent farms could result in potential impacts to the hydrodynamic flow field in an oceanic setting. In this study, a kelp-type structure module was incorporated into a coastal ocean model to simulate the blockage effect of uranium extraction devices on the flow field. The module was quantitatively validated against laboratory flume experiments for both velocity and turbulence profiles. The model-data comparison showed an overall good agreement and validated the approach of applying the model to assess the potential hydrodynamic impact of uranium extraction devices or other underwater structures in coastal oceans.

  15. Calculating Impacts of Energy Standards on Energy Demand in U.S. Buildings under Uncertainty with an Integrated Assessment Model: Technical Background Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Hathaway, John E.; Lansing, Carina S.; Liu, Ying; McJeon, Haewon C.; Moss, Richard H.; Patel, Pralit L.; Peterson, Marty J.; Rice, Jennie S.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2014-12-06

    This report presents data and assumptions employed in an application of PNNL’s Global Change Assessment Model with a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability. The model is used to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The report provides a summary of how residential and commercial buildings are modeled, together with assumptions made for the distributions of state–level population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per worker, efficiency and cost of residential and commercial energy equipment by end use, and efficiency and cost of residential and commercial building shells. The cost and performance of equipment and of building shells are reported separately for current building and equipment efficiency standards and for more aggressive standards. The report also details assumptions concerning future improvements brought about by projected trends in technology.

  16. Transient Inverse Calibration of Site-Wide Groundwater Model to Hanford Operational Impacts from 1943 to 1996--Alternative Conceptual Model Considering Interaction with Uppermost Basalt Confined Aquifer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vermeul, Vincent R.; Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Thorne, Paul D.; Wurstner, Signe K.

    2001-08-29

    The baseline three-dimensional transient inverse model for the estimation of site-wide scale flow parameters, including their uncertainties, using data on the transient behavior of the unconfined aquifer system over the entire historical period of Hanford operations, has been modified to account for the effects of basalt intercommunication between the Hanford unconfined aquifer and the underlying upper basalt confined aquifer. Both the baseline and alternative conceptual models (ACM-1) considered only the groundwater flow component and corresponding observational data in the 3-Dl transient inverse calibration efforts. Subsequent efforts will examine both groundwater flow and transport. Comparisons of goodness of fit measures and parameter estimation results for the ACM-1 transient inverse calibrated model with those from previous site-wide groundwater modeling efforts illustrate that the new 3-D transient inverse model approach will strengthen the technical defensibility of the final model(s) and provide the ability to incorporate uncertainty in predictions related to both conceptual model and parameter uncertainty. These results, however, indicate that additional improvements are required to the conceptual model framework. An investigation was initiated at the end of this basalt inverse modeling effort to determine whether facies-based zonation would improve specific yield parameter estimation results (ACM-2). A description of the justification and methodology to develop this zonation is discussed.

  17. Explanation of Significant Differences Between Models used to Assess Groundwater Impacts for the Disposal of Greater-Than-Class C Low-Level Radioactive Waste and Greater-Than-Class C-Like Waste Environmental Impact Statement (DOE/EIS-0375-D) and the

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Annette Schafer; Arthur S. Rood; A. Jeffrey Sondrup

    2011-08-01

    Models have been used to assess the groundwater impacts to support the Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Disposal of Greater-Than-Class C (GTCC) Low-Level Radioactive Waste and GTCC-Like Waste (DOE-EIS 2011) for a facility sited at the Idaho National Laboratory and the Environmental Assessment for the INL Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste Disposal Project (INL 2011). Groundwater impacts are primarily a function of (1) location determining the geologic and hydrologic setting, (2) disposal facility configuration, and (3) radionuclide source, including waste form and release from the waste form. In reviewing the assumptions made between the model parameters for the two different groundwater impacts assessments, significant differences were identified. This report presents the two sets of model assumptions and discusses their origins and implications for resulting dose predictions. Given more similar model parameters, predicted doses would be commensurate.

  18. Microsoft Word - NRAP-TRS-III-002-2014_Second-Generation Reduced-Order Model for Calculation of Groundwater Impacts_20140407.do

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Second-Generation Reduced-Order Model for Calculation of Groundwater Impacts as a Function pH, Total Dissolved Solids, and Trace Metal Concentrations 7 April 2014 Office of Fossil Energy NRAP-TRS-III-002-2014 Disclaimer This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility

  19. Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, A.; Weaver, C. P.; Morefield, Philip; Huang, Jin; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Adams, P. J.; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, J.; Mahoney, Hardee

    2012-11-01

    Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices.

  20. HIGH-ORDER MODELING OF AN ERL FOR ELECTRON COOLING IN THE RHIC LUMINOSITY UPGRADE USING MARYLIE/IMPACT.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    RANJBAR,V.; BEN-ZVI,I.; PAUL, K.; ABELL, D.T.; TECH-X CORP.; KEWISCH, J.; RYNE, R.D.; QIANG, J.

    2007-06-25

    Plans for the RHIC luminosity upgrade call for an electron cooling system that will place substantial demands on the energy, current, brightness, and beam quality of the electron beam. In particular, the requirements demand a new level of fidelity in beam dynamics simulations. New developments in MARYLIE/IMPACT have improved both the space charge computations for beams with large aspect ratios and the beam dynamic computations for rf cavities. We present the results of beam dynamics simulations that include the effects of space charge and nonlinearities, and aim to assess the tolerance for errors and nonlinearities on current designs for a super-conducting ERL.

  1. Economic impact of climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eddy, A.

    1980-05-01

    This volume summarizes the first two of a series of six workshops to investigate the economic impact of climate. These two workshops dealt mainly with input-output and econometric models. Potential for introducing weather and climate variables was discussed. A listing of topics and authors follows: Economic Models and the Identification of Climatic Effects on Economic Processes, Stan Johnson; Economic Modeling, Jim Morgan; Econometric Modeling: State of the Arts for the US Agricultural Industry, Abner Womack; Regional Input-Output Models: Understanding Their Application, Charles Lamphear; Measuring Regional Economic Impact Associated With Unfavorable Conditions During Crop Production Periods: A concept Paper, Charles Lamphear; Possible Applications of Input-Output Models in Climatic Impact Analysis, William Cooter; and Aspects of Input-Output Analysis Pertinent to Climate-Economic Modeling: Three Short Notes, William Cooter. (PSB)

  2. Considerations for modeling small-particulate impacts from surface coal-mining operations based on wind-tunnel simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Perry, S.G.; Petersen, W.B.; Thompson, R.S.

    1994-12-31

    The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 provide for a reexamination of the current Environmental Protection Agency`s (USEPA) methods for modeling fugitive particulate (PM10) from open-pit, surface coal mines. The Industrial Source Complex Model (ISCST2) is specifically named as the method that needs further study. Title II, Part B, Section 234 of the Amendments states that {open_quotes}...the Administrator shall analyze the accuracy of such model and emission factors and make revisions as may be necessary to eliminate any significant over-predictions of air quality effect of fugitive particulate emissions from such sources.{close_quotes}

  3. Impacts of Rising Air Temperatures and Emissions Mitigation on Electricity Demand and Supply in the United States. A Multi-Model Comparison

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    McFarland, James; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon; Sullivan, Patrick; Colman, Jesse; Jaglom, Wendy S.; Colley, Michelle; Patel, Pralit; Eom, Jiyon; Kim, Son H.; et al

    2015-06-10

    The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. Our present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effectsmore » of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. Moreover, the increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.« less

  4. Impacts of Rising Air Temperatures and Emissions Mitigation on Electricity Demand and Supply in the United States. A Multi-Model Comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McFarland, James; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon; Sullivan, Patrick; Colman, Jesse; Jaglom, Wendy S.; Colley, Michelle; Patel, Pralit; Eom, Jiyon; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page; Schultz, Peter; Venkatesh, Boddu; Haydel, Juanita; Mack, Charlotte; Creason, Jared

    2015-06-10

    The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. Our present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effects of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. Moreover, the increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.

  5. Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McFarland, Jim; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon E.; Sullivan, Patrick; Colman, Jesse; Jaglom, Wendy; Colley, Michelle; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page; Schultz, Peter; Venkatesh, Boddu; Haydel, Juanita; Mack, Charlotte; Creason, Jared

    2015-10-09

    The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Yet fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. The present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effects of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. The increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.

  6. Erratum to: Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McFarland, Jim; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon E.; Sullivan, Patrick; Colman, Jesse; Jaglom, Wendy; Colley, Michelle; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page; Schultz, Peter; Venkatesh, Boddu; Haydel, Juanita; Mack, Charlotte; Creason, Jared

    2015-10-07

    The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Yet fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. The present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effects of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. The increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.

  7. Impact of horizontal resolution on simulation of precipitation extremes in an aqua-planet version of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, F.; Collins, W.D.; Wehner, M.F.; Williamson, D.L.; Olson, J.G.; Algieri, C.

    2011-03-01

    One key question regarding current climate models is whether the projection of climate extremes converges to a realistic representation as the spatial and temporal resolutions of the model are increased. Ideally the model extreme statistics should approach a fixed distribution once the resolutions are commensurate with the characteristic length and time scales of the processes governing the formation of the extreme phenomena of interest. In this study, a series of AGCM runs with idealized 'aquaplanet-steady-state' boundary conditions have been performed with the Community Atmosphere Model CAM3 to investigate the effect of horizontal resolution on climate extreme simulations. The use of the aquaplanet framework highlights the roles of model physics and dynamics and removes any apparent convergence in extreme statistics due to better resolution of surface boundary conditions and other external inputs. Assessed at a same large spatial scale, the results show that the horizontal resolution and time step have strong effects on the simulations of precipitation extremes. The horizontal resolution has a much stronger impact on precipitation extremes than on mean precipitation. Updrafts are strongly correlated with extreme precipitation at tropics at all the resolutions, while positive low-tropospheric temperature anomalies are associated with extreme precipitation at mid-latitudes.

  8. Research project on CO2 geological storage and groundwaterresources: Large-scale hydrological evaluation and modeling of impact ongroundwater systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Birkholzer, Jens; Zhou, Quanlin; Rutqvist, Jonny; Jordan,Preston; Zhang,K.; Tsang, Chin-Fu

    2007-10-24

    If carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies areimplemented on a large scale, the amounts of CO2 injected and sequesteredunderground could be extremely large. The stored CO2 then replaces largevolumes of native brine, which can cause considerable pressureperturbation and brine migration in the deep saline formations. Ifhydraulically communicating, either directly via updipping formations orthrough interlayer pathways such as faults or imperfect seals, theseperturbations may impact shallow groundwater or even surface waterresources used for domestic or commercial water supply. Possibleenvironmental concerns include changes in pressure and water table,changes in discharge and recharge zones, as well as changes in waterquality. In compartmentalized formations, issues related to large-scalepressure buildup and brine displacement may also cause storage capacityproblems, because significant pressure buildup can be produced. Toaddress these issues, a three-year research project was initiated inOctober 2006, the first part of which is summarized in this annualreport.

  9. Investigating wind turbine impacts on near-wake flow using profiling Lidar data and large-eddy simulations with an actuator disk model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mirocha, Jeffrey D.; Rajewski, Daniel A.; Marjanovic, Nikola; Lundquist, Julie K.; Kosovic, Branko; Draxl, Caroline; Churchfield, Matthew J.

    2015-08-27

    In this study, wind turbine impacts on the atmospheric flow are investigated using data from the Crop Wind Energy Experiment (CWEX-11) and large-eddy simulations (LESs) utilizing a generalized actuator disk (GAD) wind turbine model. CWEX-11 employed velocity-azimuth display (VAD) data from two Doppler lidar systems to sample vertical profiles of flow parameters across the rotor depth both upstream and in the wake of an operating 1.5 MW wind turbine. Lidar and surface observations obtained during four days of July 2011 are analyzed to characterize the turbine impacts on wind speed and flow variability, and to examine the sensitivity of these changes to atmospheric stability. Significant velocity deficits (VD) are observed at the downstream location during both convective and stable portions of four diurnal cycles, with large, sustained deficits occurring during stable conditions. Variances of the streamwise velocity component, σu, likewise show large increases downstream during both stable and unstable conditions, with stable conditions supporting sustained small increases of σu , while convective conditions featured both larger magnitudes and increased variability, due to the large coherent structures in the background flow. Two representative case studies, one stable and one convective, are simulated using LES with a GAD model at 6 m resolution to evaluate the compatibility of the simulation framework with validation using vertically profiling lidar data in the near wake region. Virtual lidars were employed to sample the simulated flow field in a manner consistent with the VAD technique. Simulations reasonably reproduced aggregated wake VD characteristics, albeit with smaller magnitudes than observed, while σu values in the wake are more significantly underestimated. The results illuminate the limitations of using a GAD in combination with coarse model resolution in the simulation of near wake physics, and validation thereof using VAD data.

  10. Investigating wind turbine impacts on near-wake flow using profiling Lidar data and large-eddy simulations with an actuator disk model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Mirocha, Jeffrey D.; Rajewski, Daniel A.; Marjanovic, Nikola; Lundquist, Julie K.; Kosovic, Branko; Draxl, Caroline; Churchfield, Matthew J.

    2015-08-27

    In this study, wind turbine impacts on the atmospheric flow are investigated using data from the Crop Wind Energy Experiment (CWEX-11) and large-eddy simulations (LESs) utilizing a generalized actuator disk (GAD) wind turbine model. CWEX-11 employed velocity-azimuth display (VAD) data from two Doppler lidar systems to sample vertical profiles of flow parameters across the rotor depth both upstream and in the wake of an operating 1.5 MW wind turbine. Lidar and surface observations obtained during four days of July 2011 are analyzed to characterize the turbine impacts on wind speed and flow variability, and to examine the sensitivity of thesemore » changes to atmospheric stability. Significant velocity deficits (VD) are observed at the downstream location during both convective and stable portions of four diurnal cycles, with large, sustained deficits occurring during stable conditions. Variances of the streamwise velocity component, σu, likewise show large increases downstream during both stable and unstable conditions, with stable conditions supporting sustained small increases of σu , while convective conditions featured both larger magnitudes and increased variability, due to the large coherent structures in the background flow. Two representative case studies, one stable and one convective, are simulated using LES with a GAD model at 6 m resolution to evaluate the compatibility of the simulation framework with validation using vertically profiling lidar data in the near wake region. Virtual lidars were employed to sample the simulated flow field in a manner consistent with the VAD technique. Simulations reasonably reproduced aggregated wake VD characteristics, albeit with smaller magnitudes than observed, while σu values in the wake are more significantly underestimated. The results illuminate the limitations of using a GAD in combination with coarse model resolution in the simulation of near wake physics, and validation thereof using VAD data.« less

  11. DRSPALL: Impact of the Modification of the Numerical Spallings Model on Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Performance Assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kicker, Dwayne Curtis; Herrick, Courtney G.; Zeitler, Todd; Malama, Bwalya; Rudeen, David Keith; Gilkey, Amy P.

    2016-01-01

    The numerical code DRSPALL (from direct release spallings) is written to calculate the volume of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) solid waste subject to material failure and transport to the surface as a result of a hypothetical future inadvertent drilling intrusion. An error in the implementation of the DRSPALL finite difference equations was discovered as documented in Software Problem Report (SPR) 13-001. The modifications to DRSPALL to correct the finite difference equations are detailed, and verification and validation testing has been completed for the modified DRSPALL code. The complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) of spallings releases obtained using the modified DRSPALL is higher compared to that found in previous WIPP performance assessment (PA) calculations. Compared to previous PAs, there was an increase in the number of vectors that result in a nonzero spallings volume, which generally translates to an increase in spallings releases. The overall mean CCDFs for total releases using the modified DRSPALL are virtually unchanged, thus the modification to DRSPALL did not impact WIPP PA calculation results.

  12. Predictive modeling of CO{sub 2} sequestration in deep saline sandstone reservoirs: Impacts of geochemical kinetics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Balashov, Victor N.; Guthrie, George D.; Hakala, J. Alexandra; Lopano, Christina L. J.; Rimstidt, Donald; Brantley, Susan L.

    2013-03-01

    One idea for mitigating the increase in fossil-fuel generated CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere is to inject CO{sub 2} into subsurface saline sandstone reservoirs. To decide whether to try such sequestration at a globally significant scale will require the ability to predict the fate of injected CO{sub 2}. Thus, models are needed to predict the rates and extents of subsurface rock-water-gas interactions. Several reactive transport models for CO{sub 2} sequestration created in the last decade predicted sequestration in sandstone reservoirs of ~17 to ~90 kg CO{sub 2} m{sup -3|. To build confidence in such models, a baseline problem including rock + water chemistry is proposed as the basis for future modeling so that both the models and the parameterizations can be compared systematically. In addition, a reactive diffusion model is used to investigate the fate of injected supercritical CO{sub 2} fluid in the proposed baseline reservoir + brine system. In the baseline problem, injected CO{sub 2} is redistributed from the supercritical (SC) free phase by dissolution into pore brine and by formation of carbonates in the sandstone. The numerical transport model incorporates a full kinetic description of mineral-water reactions under the assumption that transport is by diffusion only. Sensitivity tests were also run to understand which mineral kinetics reactions are important for CO{sub 2} trapping. The diffusion transport model shows that for the first ~20 years after CO{sub 2} diffusion initiates, CO{sub 2} is mostly consumed by dissolution into the brine to form CO{sub 2,aq} (solubility trapping). From 20-200 years, both solubility and mineral trapping are important as calcite precipitation is driven by dissolution of oligoclase. From 200 to 1000 years, mineral trapping is the most important sequestration mechanism, as smectite dissolves and calcite precipitates. Beyond 2000 years, most trapping is due to formation of aqueous HCO{sub 3}{sup -}. Ninety-seven percent of the

  13. The impact of equilibrating hemispheric albedos on tropical performance in the HadGEM2-ES coupled climate model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Haywood, Jim M.; Jones, Andy; Dunstone, Nick; Milton, Sean; Vellinga, Michael; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; Hawcroft, Matt; Kravitz, Ben; Cole, Jason; Watanabe, Shingo; et al

    2016-01-14

    The Earth's hemispheric reflectances are equivalent to within ± 0.2 Wm–2, even though the Northern Hemisphere contains a greater proportion of higher reflectance land areas, because of greater cloud cover in the Southern Hemisphere. This equivalence is unlikely to be by chance, but the reasons are open to debate. Here we show that equilibrating hemispheric albedos in the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System coupled climate model significantly improves what have been considered longstanding and apparently intractable model biases. Monsoon precipitation biases over all continental land areas, the penetration of monsoon rainfall across the Sahel, the West Africanmore » monsoon “jump”, and indicators of hurricane frequency are all significantly improved. Mechanistically, equilibrating hemispheric albedos improves the atmospheric cross-equatorial energy transport and increases the supply of tropical atmospheric moisture to the Hadley cell. Furthermore, we conclude that an accurate representation of the cross-equatorial energy transport appears to be critical if tropical performance is to be improved.« less

  14. SU-D-BRE-03: Dosimetric Impact of In-Air Spot Size Variations for Commissioning a Room-Matched Beam Model for Pencil Beam Scanning Proton Therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Y; Giebeler, A; Mascia, A; Piskulich, F; Perles, L; Lepage, R; Dong, L

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: To quantitatively evaluate dosimetric consequence of spot size variations and validate beam-matching criteria for commissioning a pencil beam model for multiple treatment rooms. Methods: A planning study was first conducted by simulating spot size variations to systematically evaluate dosimetric impact of spot size variations in selected cases, which was used to establish the in-air spot size tolerance for beam matching specifications. A beam model in treatment planning system was created using in-air spot profiles acquired in one treatment room. These spot profiles were also acquired from another treatment room for assessing the actual spot size variations between the two treatment rooms. We created twenty five test plans with targets of different sizes at different depths, and performed dose measurement along the entrance, proximal and distal target regions. The absolute doses at those locations were measured using ionization chambers at both treatment rooms, and were compared against the calculated doses by the beam model. Fifteen additional patient plans were also measured and included in our validation. Results: The beam model is relatively insensitive to spot size variations. With an average of less than 15% measured in-air spot size variations between two treatment rooms, the average dose difference was ?0.15% with a standard deviation of 0.40% for 55 measurement points within target region; but the differences increased to 1.4%1.1% in the entrance regions, which are more affected by in-air spot size variations. Overall, our single-room based beam model in the treatment planning system agreed with measurements in both rooms < 0.5% within the target region. For fifteen patient cases, the agreement was within 1%. Conclusion: We have demonstrated that dosimetrically equivalent machines can be established when in-air spot size variations are within 15% between the two treatment rooms.

  15. Empirical, probabilistic, and modelling approaches to assess cross-media impacts to marine sediments at Puget Sound Naval Shipyard

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rohrer, W.L.; Vita, C.L.; Schrock, W.; Leicht, G.

    1996-12-31

    Dredge spoils, industrial fill, and liquid wastes from the 1940s to 1970s have resulted in inorganic and organic contamination of soils, groundwater, and marine sediments near the U.S.S. Missouri and Charleston Beach parking lots at Puget Sound Naval Shipyard (PSNS), in Bremerton, Washington. Extensive collection of environmental data from several studies including the recently completed Remedial Investigation conducted under CERCLA have confirmed contaminant levels above federal risk screening levels and state regulatory criteria for several heavy metals and organic compounds, including pesticides and PCBs. Although the correlation between contamination in marine sediments and those in on-shore fill appears to be strong, there is little evidence that a viable transport pathway currently exists from soils to groundwater and thence to sediments. Several methods used to estimate chemical mass flux from soil to groundwater to sediments and marine waters of Sinclair Inlet are corroborative in this regard. Nonetheless, this result is vexing because present groundwater concentrations exceed ARARs, yet are below levels of concern in terms of mass flux to marine waters. Despite the marginal risks posed by groundwater, various remedial alternatives, including perimeter containment using a subsurface waste-stabilized containment wall, were evaluated to determine whether chemical flux could be reduced to levels below those observed at the present time. Three-dimensional flow modelling and transport modelling also confirmed that chemical fluxes were limited in magnitude and could be addressed with more conventional remedial approaches.

  16. WRF-Chem model predictions of the regional impacts of N2O5 heterogeneous processes on night-time chemistry over north-western Europe

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Lowe, Douglas; Archer-Nicholls, Scott; Morgan, Will; Allan, James D.; Utembe, Steve; Ouyang, Bin; Aruffo, Eleonora; Le Breton, Michael; Zaveri, Rahul A.; di Carlo, Piero; et al

    2015-02-09

    alkenes (× 80) and comparable for dimethylsulfide (DMS). However the suppression of NO3 mixing ratios across the domain by N2O5 heterogeneous chemistry has only a very slight, negative, influence on this oxidative capacity. The influence on regional particulate nitrate mass loadings is stronger. Night-time N2O5 heterogeneous chemistry maintains the production of particulate nitrate within polluted regions: when this process is taken into consideration, the daytime peak (for the 95th percentile) of PM10 nitrate mass loadings remains around 5.6 μg kg−1air, but the night-time minimum increases from 3.5 to 4.6 μg kg−1air. The sustaining of higher particulate mass loadings through the night by this process improves model skill at matching measured aerosol nitrate diurnal cycles and will negatively impact on regional air quality, requiring this process to be included in regional models.« less

  17. Calibration of a Convective Parameterization Scheme in the WRF Model and its Impact on the Simulation of East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yang, Ben; Zhang, Yaocun; Qian, Yun; Huang, Anning; Yan, Huiping

    2015-03-26

    Reasonably modeling the magnitude, south-north gradient and seasonal propagation of precipitation associated with the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is a challenging task in the climate community. In this study we calibrate five key parameters in the Kain-Fritsch convection scheme in the WRF model using an efficient importance-sampling algorithm to improve the EASM simulation. We also examine the impacts of the improved EASM precipitation on other physical process. Our results suggest similar model sensitivity and values of optimized parameters across years with different EASM intensities. By applying the optimal parameters, the simulated precipitation and surface energy features are generally improved. The parameters related to downdraft, entrainment coefficients and CAPE consumption time (CCT) can most sensitively affect the precipitation and atmospheric features. Larger downdraft coefficient or CCT decrease the heavy rainfall frequency, while larger entrainment coefficient delays the convection development but build up more potential for heavy rainfall events, causing a possible northward shift of rainfall distribution. The CCT is the most sensitive parameter over wet region and the downdraft parameter plays more important roles over drier northern region. Long-term simulations confirm that by using the optimized parameters the precipitation distributions are better simulated in both weak and strong EASM years. Due to more reasonable simulated precipitation condensational heating, the monsoon circulations are also improved. By using the optimized parameters the biases in the retreating (beginning) of Mei-yu (northern China rainfall) simulated by the standard WRF model are evidently reduced and the seasonal and sub-seasonal variations of the monsoon precipitation are remarkably improved.

  18. Calibration of a convective parameterization scheme in the WRF model and its impact on the simulation of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yang, Ben; Zhang, Yaocun; Qian, Yun; Huang, Anning; Yan, Huiping

    2014-03-26

    Reasonably modeling the magnitude, south-north gradient and seasonal propagation of precipitation associated with the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is a challenging task in the climate community. In this study we calibrate five key parameters in the Kain-Fritsch convection scheme in the WRF model using an efficient importance-sampling algorithm to improve the EASM simulation. We also examine the impacts of the improved EASM precipitation on other physical process. Our results suggest similar model sensitivity and values of optimized parameters across years with different EASM intensities. By applying the optimal parameters, the simulated precipitation and surface energy features are generally improved.more » The parameters related to downdraft, entrainment coefficients and CAPE consumption time (CCT) can most sensitively affect the precipitation and atmospheric features. Larger downdraft coefficient or CCT decrease the heavy rainfall frequency, while larger entrainment coefficient delays the convection development but build up more potential for heavy rainfall events, causing a possible northward shift of rainfall distribution. The CCT is the most sensitive parameter over wet region and the downdraft parameter plays more important roles over drier northern region. Long-term simulations confirm that by using the optimized parameters the precipitation distributions are better simulated in both weak and strong EASM years. Due to more reasonable simulated precipitation condensational heating, the monsoon circulations are also improved. Lastly, by using the optimized parameters the biases in the retreating (beginning) of Mei-yu (northern China rainfall) simulated by the standard WRF model are evidently reduced and the seasonal and sub-seasonal variations of the monsoon precipitation are remarkably improved.« less

  19. Analysis of methods and models for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes in the agricultural sector of the US economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Callaway, J.M.

    1982-08-01

    Alternative methods for quantifying the economic impacts associated with future increases in the ambient concentration of CO/sub 2/ were examined. A literature search was undertaken, both to gain a better understanding of the ways in which CO/sub 2/ buildup could affect crop growth and to identify the different methods available for assessing the impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes on crop yields. The second task involved identifying the scope of both the direct and indirect economic impacts that could occur as a result of CO/sub 2/-induced changes in crop yields. The third task then consisted of a comprehensive literature search to identify what types of economic models could be used effectively to assess the kinds of direct and indirect economic impacts that could conceivably occur as a result of CO/sub 2/ buildup. Specific attention was focused upon national and multi-regional agricultural sector models, multi-country agricultural trade models, and macroeconomic models of the US economy. The fourth and final task of this research involved synthesizing the information gathered in the previous tasks into a systematic framework for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes related to agricultural production.

  20. CO2 exposure at pressure impacts metabolism and stress responses in the model sulfate-reducing bacterium Desulfovibrio vulgaris strain Hildenborough

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilkins, Michael J.; Hoyt, David W.; Marshall, Matthew J.; Alderson, Paul A.; Plymale, Andrew E.; Markillie, Lye Meng; Tucker, Abigail E.; Walter, Eric D.; Linggi, Bryan E.; Dohnalkova, Alice; Taylor, Ronald C.

    2014-09-01

    Geologic carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration drives physical and geochemical changes in deep subsurface environments that impact indigenous microbial activities. The combined effects of pressurized CO2 on a model sulfate-reducing microorganism, Desulfovibrio vulgaris, have been assessed using a suite of genomic and kinetic measurements. Novel high-pressure NMR time-series measurements using 13C-lactate were used to track D. vulgaris metabolism. We identified cessation of respiration at CO2 pressures of 10 bar, 25 bar, 50 bar, and 80 bar. Concurrent experiments using N2 as the pressurizing phase had no negative effect on microbial respiration, as inferred from reduction of sulfate to sulfide. Complementary pressurized batch incubations and fluorescence microscopy measurements supported NMR observations, and indicated that non-respiring cells were mostly viable at 50 bar CO2 for at least four hours, and at 80 bar CO2 for two hours. The fraction of dead cells increased rapidly after four hours at 80 bar CO2. Transcriptomic (RNA-Seq) measurements on mRNA transcripts from CO2-incubated biomass indicated that cells up-regulated the production of certain amino acids (leucine, isoleucine) following CO2 exposure at elevated pressures, likely as part of a general stress response. Evidence for other poorly understood stress responses were also identified within RNA-Seq data, suggesting that while pressurized CO2 severely limits the growth and respiration of D. vulgaris cells, biomass retains intact cell membranes at pressures up to 80 bar CO2. Together, these data show that geologic sequestration of CO2 may have significant impacts on rates of sulfate reduction in many deep subsurface environments where this metabolism is a key respiratory process.

  1. Small Particles, Big Impact

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Small Particles, Big Impact Small Particles, Big Impact Small-scale effects of Aerosols Add up Over Time August 24, 2011 Linda Vu, lvu@lbl.gov, +1 510 495 2402 High-resolution simulation for Mexico City (top), shows a more detailed and accurate picture of aerosol pollution compared to representations of a global climate model (bottom). The deep red to light green colors represent concentrations of aerosol pollution with red being highest, light green lowest. Using systems at the National Energy

  2. Economic Impact

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Economic Impact on New Mexico Delivering the best possible science and technology results for the nation while making a positive impact on our New Mexico communities and economy July 1, 2016 Contacts Community Partnerships Kathy Keith (505) 665-4400 Email Economic Development Vangie Trujillo (505) 665-4284 Email Market Transition Program Micheline Devaurs (505) 665-9090 Email Small Business Program Chris Fresquez (505) 667-4419 Email Positive impact on New Mexico's economy, communities Through

  3. Source Term Modeling for Evaluating the Potential Impacts to Groundwater of Fluids Escaping from a Depleted Oil Reservoir Used for Carbon Sequestration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cantrell, Kirk J.; Brown, Christopher F.

    2014-06-13

    In recent years depleted oil reservoirs have received special interest as carbon storage reservoirs because of their potential to offset costs through collaboration with enhanced oil recovery projects. Modeling is currently being conducted to evaluate potential risks to groundwater associated with leakage of fluids from depleted oil reservoirs used for storage of CO2. Modeling results reported here focused on understanding how toxic organic compounds found in oil will distribute between the various phases within a storage reservoir after introduction of CO2, understanding the migration potential of these compounds, and assessing potential groundwater impacts should leakage occur. Two model scenarios were conducted to evaluate how organic components in oil will distribute among the phases of interest (oil, CO2, and brine). The first case consisted of 50 wt.% oil and 50 wt.% water; the second case was 90 wt.% CO2 and 10 wt.% oil. Several key organic compounds were selected for special attention in this study based upon their occurrence in oil at significant concentrations, relative toxicity, or because they can serve as surrogate compounds for other more highly toxic compounds for which required input data are not available. The organic contaminants of interest (COI) selected for this study were benzene, toluene, naphthalene, phenanthrene, and anthracene. Partitioning of organic compounds between crude oil and supercritical CO2 was modeled using the Peng-Robinson equation of state over temperature and pressure conditions that represent the entire subsurface system (from those relevant to deep geologic carbon storage environments to near surface conditions). Results indicate that for a typical set of oil reservoir conditions (75°C, and 21,520 kPa) negligible amounts of the COI dissolve into the aqueous phase. When CO2 is introduced into the reservoir such that the final composition of the reservoir is 90 wt.% CO2 and 10 wt.% oil, a significant fraction of the oil

  4. Impact Statements

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Reading Room / Final Environment Impact Statements Record of Decision on Bonneville Power Administration’s Lyle Falls Fish Passage Project (DOE/EIS-3790, November 2008). February 2009.

  5. Ecological Impacts of the Cerro Grande Fire: Predicting Elk Movement and Distribution Patterns in Response to Vegetative Recovery through Simulation Modeling October 2005

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S.P. Rupp

    2005-10-01

    SAVANNA included a land cover map, long-term weather data, soil maps, and a digital elevation model. Parameterization and calibration were conducted using field plots. Model predictions of herbaceous biomass production and weather were consistent with available data and spatial interpolations of snow were considered reasonable for this study. Dynamic outputs generated by SAVANNA were integrated with static variables, movement rules, and parameters developed for the individual-based model through the application of a habitat suitability index. Model validation indicated reasonable model fit when compared to an independent test set. The finished model was applied to 2 realistic management scenarios for the Jemez Mountains and management implications were discussed. Ongoing validation of the individual-based model presented in this dissertation provides an adaptive management tool that integrates interdisciplinary experience and scientific information, which allows users to make predictions about the impact of alternative management policies.

  6. MODELING THE IMPACT OF ELEVATED MERCURY IN DEFENSE WASTE PROCESSING FACILITY MELTER FEED ON THE MELTER OFF-GAS SYSTEM-PRELIMINARY REPORT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zamecnik, J.; Choi, A.

    2010-08-18

    The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) is currently evaluating an alternative Chemical Process Cell (CPC) flowsheet to increase throughput. It includes removal of the steam-stripping step, which would significantly reduce the CPC processing time and lessen the sampling needs. However, its downside would be to send 100% of the mercury that comes in with the sludge straight to the melter. For example, the new mercury content in the Sludge Batch 5 (SB5) melter feed is projected to be 25 times higher than that in the SB4 with nominal steam stripping of mercury. This task was initiated to study the impact of the worst-case scenario of zero-mercury-removal in the CPC on the DWPF melter offgas system. It is stressed that this study is intended to be scoping in nature, so the results presented in this report are preliminary. In order to study the impact of elevated mercury levels in the feed, it is necessary to be able to predict how mercury would speciate in the melter exhaust under varying melter operating conditions. A homogeneous gas-phase oxidation model of mercury by chloride was developed to do just that. The model contains two critical parameters pertaining to the partitioning of chloride among HCl, Cl, Cl{sub 2}, and chloride salts in the melter vapor space. The values for these parameters were determined at two different melter vapor space temperatures by matching the calculated molar ratio of HgCl (or Hg{sub 2}Cl{sub 2}) to HgCl{sub 2} with those measured during the Experimental-Scale Ceramic Melter (ESCM) tests run at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The calibrated model was then applied to the SB5 simulant used in the earlier flowsheet study with an assumed mercury stripping efficiency of zero; the molar ratio of Cl-to-Hg in the resulting melter feed was only 0.4, compared to 12 for the ESCM feeds. The results of the model run at the indicated melter vapor space temperature of 650 C (TI4085D) showed that due to excessive shortage of

  7. Impact of chamber wall loss of gaseous organic compounds on secondary organic aerosol formation: Explicit modeling of SOA formation from alkane and alkene oxidation

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    La, Y. S.; Camredon, M.; Ziemann, P. J.; Valorso, R.; Matsunaga, A.; Lannuque, V.; Lee-Taylor, J.; Hodzic, A.; Madronich, S.; Aumont, B.

    2016-02-08

    Recent studies have shown that low volatility gas-phase species can be lost onto the smog chamber wall surfaces. Although this loss of organic vapors to walls could be substantial during experiments, its effect on secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation has not been well characterized and quantified yet. Here the potential impact of chamber walls on the loss of gaseous organic species and SOA formation has been explored using the Generator for Explicit Chemistry and Kinetics of the Organics in the Atmosphere (GECKO-A) modeling tool, which explicitly represents SOA formation and gas–wall partitioning. The model was compared with 41 smog chambermore » experiments of SOA formation under OH oxidation of alkane and alkene series (linear, cyclic and C12-branched alkanes and terminal, internal and 2-methyl alkenes with 7 to 17 carbon atoms) under high NOx conditions. Simulated trends match observed trends within and between homologous series. The loss of organic vapors to the chamber walls is found to affect SOA yields as well as the composition of the gas and the particle phases. Simulated distributions of the species in various phases suggest that nitrates, hydroxynitrates and carbonylesters could substantially be lost onto walls. The extent of this process depends on the rate of gas–wall mass transfer, the vapor pressure of the species and the duration of the experiments. Furthermore, this work suggests that SOA yields inferred from chamber experiments could be underestimated up a factor of 2 due to the loss of organic vapors to chamber walls.« less

  8. Cyber Dynamic Impact Modeling Engine

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-07-01

    As the rate, sophistication, and potential damage of cyber attacks continue to grow, the latency of human-speed analysis and response is becoming increasingly costly. Intelligent response to detected attacks and other malicious activity requires both knowledge of the characteristics of the attack as well as how resources involved in the attack related to the mission of the organization. Cydime fills this need by estimating a key component of intrusion detection and response automation: the relationshipmore » type and strength between the target organization and the potential attacker.« less

  9. VISION Model

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    VISION Model (Argonne National Laboratory) Objectives To provide estimates of the potential energy use, oil use, and carbon emission impacts of advanced light- and heavy-duty ...

  10. Scientific Impact

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    impact Scientific Impact Since its inception over twenty years ago, CAMS has achieved noteworthy scientific progress by developing new capabilities and by combining state-of-the-art tools and expertise to address important scientific challenges. Scientific Leadership CAMS scientists are recognized as scientific leaders in the field of AMS and the disciplines that it supports. Many CAMS staff participate on federal agency (NIH, NSF, NOAA and DOE) scientific review panels as well as giving a