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We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
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1

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and climate models differ. Aaron B. Wilson Context: Global http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ #12;Numerical Weather Prediction Collect Observations alters associated weather patterns. Models used to predict weather depend on the current observed state

Howat, Ian M.

2

Regional-seasonal weather forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

3

Amending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to validate the amounts of humidity in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model forecasts. This paper presents. Satellite images and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are used together with the synoptic surface. In this paper, a case is presented for which the operational Numerical Weather Prediction Model (NWP) HIRLAM

Stoffelen, Ad

4

Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for the designation as UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH SCHOLAR April 2010 Major: Nuclear Engineering DYNAMIC ALGORITHM FOR SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING SYSTEM A Junior Scholars Thesis by LUKE DUNCAN FISCHER Submitted to the Office of Undergraduate... 2010 Major: Nuclear Engineering iii ABSTRACT Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System. (April 2010) Luke Duncan Fischer Department of Nuclear Engineering Texas A&M University Research Advisor: Dr. Stephen Guetersloh...

Fischer, Luke D.

2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

5

Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) models is summarised as weather forecast texts. In the domain of gas turbines, sensor data from an operational gas turbine is summarised for the maintenance engineers. More details on SUMTIME have been to develop a generic model for summarisation of time series data. Initially, we have applied standard

Sripada, Yaji

6

MOUNTAIN WEATHER PREDICTION: PHENOMENOLOGICAL CHALLENGES AND FORECAST METHODOLOGY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

MOUNTAIN WEATHER PREDICTION: PHENOMENOLOGICAL CHALLENGES AND FORECAST METHODOLOGY Michael P. Meyers of the American Meteorological Society Mountain Weather and Forecasting Monograph Draft from Friday, May 21, 2010 of weather analysis and forecasting in complex terrain with special emphasis placed on the role of humans

Steenburgh, Jim

7

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models Mark S. Roulstona; Numerical weather prediction 1. Introduction Wave forecasting is now an integral part of operational weather methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium

Stevenson, Paul

8

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

10

MLWFA: A Multilingual Weather Forecast Text Generation Tianfang YAO Dongmo ZHANG Qian WANG  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

MLWFA: A Multilingual Weather Forecast Text Generation System1 Tianfang YAO Dongmo ZHANG Qian WANG generation; Weather forecast generation system Abstract In this demonstration, we present a system for multilingual text generation in the weather forecast domain. Multilingual Weather Forecast Assistant (MLWFA

Wu, Dekai

11

Weather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

................................................................................................. 20 3.1.2 Integrate's Flow of ControlWeather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation: A Step-by-step guide of a Model Run .......................................................................................................................... 19 3.1 The Integrate Subroutine

Sadjadi, S. Masoud

12

Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of smart grid initiatives is significantly increasing the fraction of grid energy contributed by renewables existing forecast-based models. I. INTRODUCTION A key goal of smart grid efforts is to substantially-based prediction models built using seven distinct weather forecast metrics are 27% more accurate for our site than

Shenoy, Prashant

13

Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a priori102 Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting is to reduce the number

Haak, Hein

14

ASSESSING THE QUALITY AND ECONOMIC VALUE OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

INFORMATION SYSTEM ∑ Forecast -- Conditional probability distribution for event Z = z indicates forecast tornado #12;(1.2) FRAMEWORK ∑ Joint Distribution of Observations & Forecasts Observed Weather = Forecast probability p (e.g., induced by Z) ∑ Reliability Diagram Observed weather: = 1 (Adverse weather occurs) = 0

Katz, Richard

15

NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Research West Virginia University College of Business and Economics P.O. Box 6527, Morgantown, WV 26506 EXPERT OPINION PROVIDED BY Keith Burdette Cabinet Secretary West Virginia Department of Commerce

Mohaghegh, Shahab

16

Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

it can generate as much or more energy that it needs ? Building activities need N kWhrs per day (solar panels, heating, etc) ? Harvested from solar panels & passive solar. Amount depends on weather ? NWP models forecast DSWRF @ surface (MJ/m2... contract work Saturday Would you plan work for Saturday? Not much detail for Saturday and Sunday With more info could be easier to decide go, no go From deterministic to probabilistic ? Forecast presented as a single scenario ? One scenario presented...

Poulin, L.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

Global warming, bad weather, insurance losses and the global economy  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Global warming causes extremely bad weather in the near term. The impact on the insurance industry is described. Why global warming in the near term causes very bad weather is explained. The continuing trend of very bad weather and the future impact on the insurance industry is explored. How very bad weather can affect the global financial market is explained. Taking a historical view of the development of the modern economy, the authors describe in the near term the impact of global warming on the global economy. The long term impact of global warming on the global economy and the human race is explored. Opportunities presented by global warming are described.

Low, N.C. [UOB Life Assurance Ltd., Singapore (Singapore); Shen, S. [Global Warming International Center, Woodridge, IL (United States)

1996-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

18

Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

2005-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

19

Exploiting weather forecast data for cloud detection†  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Accurate, fast detection of clouds in satellite imagery has many applications, for example Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate studies of both the atmosphere and of the Earthís surface temperature. Most ...

Mackie, Shona

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

Exploiting weather forecasts for sizing photovoltaic energy bids  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Exploiting weather forecasts for sizing photovoltaic energy bids Antonio Giannitrapani, Simone for a photovoltaic (PV) power producer taking part into a competitive electricity market characterized by financial set from an Italian PV plant. Index Terms--Energy market, bidding strategy, photovoltaic power

Giannitrapani, Antonello

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

Shenoy, Prashant

22

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

Shenoy, Prashant

23

Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Evaluating the ability of a numerical weather prediction model to forecast tracer concentrations during ETEX 2  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Evaluating the ability of a numerical weather prediction model to forecast tracer concentrations an operational numerical weather prediction model to forecast air quality are also investigated. These potential a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model independently of the CTM. The NWP output is typically archived

Dacre, Helen

25

HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and decision makers strongly rely on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, for example on the forecasted on forecasted precipitation. KEYWORDS: Numerical weather prediction models, validation, precipitation 1. INTRODUCTION Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are widely used by avalanche practitioners. Their de

Jamieson, Bruce

26

Reprinted from: Proceedings, International Workshop on Observations/Forecasting of Meso-scale Severe Weather and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-scale Severe Weather and Technology of Reduction of Relevant Disasters (Tokyo, Japan), 22-26 February 1993, 181 technology and powerful workstation approaches in the forecasting workplace. Training and education leading to the weather events should form the basis for any scientific approaches to forecasting those

Doswell III, Charles A.

27

Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

LOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da products Supercomputer Facilities DSA/CPTEC-INPE Monitoring products based on remote sensing Training products Numerical Forecast Products Weather discussion Colleting data platform #12;Atmospheric Chemistry

28

Analysis of moisture variability in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 15-year  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Analysis of moisture variability in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 15-year Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 15-year reanalysis (ERA-15) moisture over the tropical oceans. Introduction [2] Because water vapor is the most significant green- house gas and it exhibits a strong

Allan, Richard P.

29

Control of Regional and Global Weather  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Author suggests and researches a new revolutionary idea for regional and global weather control. He offers to cover cities, bad regions of country, full country or a continent by a thin closed film with control clarity located at a top limit of the Earth troposphere (4 - 6 km). The film is supported at altitude by small additional atmospheric pressure and connected to ground by thin cables. It is known, the troposphere defines the Earth weather. Authors show this closed dome allows to do a full control of the weather in a given region (the day is always fine, the rain is only in night, no strong wind). The average Earth (white cloudy) reflectance equal 0.3 - 0.5. That means the Earth losses about 0.3 - 0.5 of a solar energy. The dome controls the clarity of film and converts the cold regions to subtropics and creates the hot deserts, desolate wildernesses to the prosperous regions with temperate climate. That is a realistic and the cheapest method of the weather control in the Earth at the current time. Key words: Global weather control, gigantic film dome, converting a cold region to subtropics, converting desolate wilderness to a prosperous region.

Alexander Bolonkin

2007-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

30

SUMTIME-MOUSAM: Configurable Marine Weather Forecast Generator Somayajulu G. Sripada and Ehud Reiter  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Weathernews (UK) Ltd. Aberdeen iand@wni.com Abstract Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models produce time is done using guidance from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models; time series data from the NWPSUMTIME-MOUSAM: Configurable Marine Weather Forecast Generator Somayajulu G. Sripada and Ehud

Reiter, Ehud

31

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Multiscale numerical weather prediction model. Progress inassimilating numerical weather prediction model for solarwith numerical weather prediction models. In: Solar Energy

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Ed.. Editor: Jan

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2012-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

34

Exploiting Weather Forecast Information in the Operation of ...  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Mar 4, 2009 ... We argue that anticipating the weather conditions can lead to more ... The necessary uncertainty information is extracted from the weather†...

Victor M Zavala

2009-03-04T23:59:59.000Z

35

A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

Boyer, Edmond

36

Every cloud has a silver lining: Weather forecasting models could predict brain tumor  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, and combine them with incoming data streams from weather stations and satellites. Now, an innovative new study methodology used to assimilate data for weather forecasting could be used to predict the spread of brain. Synthetic magnetic resonance images of a hypothetical tumor were used for this purpose. Data assimilation

Kuang, Yang

37

Improved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a prioriImproved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar Gert

Marseille, Gert-Jan

38

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

39

A Comparison of Parallel Programming Paradigms and Data Distributions for a Limited Area Numerical Weather Forecast Routine  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Published in proceedings of the 9 th ACM International Conference on Supercomputing, July 1995, Barcelona for producing routine weather forecasts at several European meteorological institutes. Results are shown

van Engelen, Robert A.

40

Development and Evaluation of a Coupled Photosynthesis-Based Gas Exchange Evapotranspiration Model (GEM) for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Applications  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Development and Evaluation of a Coupled Photosynthesis-Based Gas Exchange Evapotranspiration Model (GEM) for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Applications DEV NIYOGI Department of Agronomy, and Department form 13 May 2008) ABSTRACT Current land surface schemes used for mesoscale weather forecast models use

Niyogi, Dev

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

J.B. , 2004: Probabilistic wind power forecasts using localforecast intervals for wind power output using NWP-predictedsources such as wind and solar power. Integration of this

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

United States California Solar Initiative Coastally Trappedparticipants in the California Solar Initiative (CSI)on location. In California, solar irradiance forecasts near

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

EVALUATION OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION IN MODELING CLOUD-RADIATION INTERACTIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

EVALUATION OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION IN MODELING CLOUD- RADIATION INTERACTIONS OVER.bnl.gov ABSTRACT Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is the basis for present-day weather forecasts, and NWP for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the US North American Model, and the US Global Forecast System. Attempts

Johnson, Peter D.

44

NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts · West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts · eNerGy · Healt Global Insight, paid for by the West Virginia Department of Revenue. 2013 WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOKWest Virginia Economic Outlook 2013 is published by: Bureau of Business & Economic Research West

Mohaghegh, Shahab

45

Claudio Schepke: Online Parallel Mesh Refinement for Climatological Applications Weather forecasts for long periods of time have emerged as increasingly important.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Claudio Schepke: Online Parallel Mesh Refinement for Climatological Applications Weather forecasts, this presentation discusses how to explore parallelism at different levels for climatological models, like OLAM

Wichmann, Felix

46

Entropy Shows that Global Warming Should Cause Increased Variability in the Weather  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Elementary physical reasoning seems to leave it inevitable that global warming would increase the variability of the weather. The first two terms in an approximation to the global entropy are used to show that global warming has increased the free energy available to drive the weather, and that the variance of the weather should increase correspondingly.

John Michael Williams

2001-02-21T23:59:59.000Z

47

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We propose in this paper an original technique to predict global radiation using a hybrid ARMA/ANN model and data issued from a numerical weather prediction model (ALADIN). We particularly look at the Multi-Layer Perceptron. After optimizing our architecture with ALADIN and endogenous data previously made stationary and using an innovative pre-input layer selection method, we combined it to an ARMA model from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data series. This model has been used to forecast the hourly global radiation for five places in Mediterranean area. Our technique outperforms classical models for all the places. The nRMSE for our hybrid model ANN/ARMA is 14.9% compared to 26.2% for the na\\"ive persistence predictor. Note that in the stand alone ANN case the nRMSE is 18.4%. Finally, in order to discuss the reliability of the forecaster outputs, a complementary study concerning the confidence interval of each prediction is proposed

Voyant, Cyril; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie Laure

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

Influence of weather and global warming in chloride ingress into concrete: a stochastic approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Influence of weather and global warming in chloride ingress into concrete: a stochastic approach E the influence of weather conditions and global warming on chloride ingress into concrete. The assessment including seasonal variations and global warming is also proposed in this work. Three scenarios of global

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

49

11.1 DEVELOPMENT OF AN IMMERSED BOUNDARY METHOD TO RESOLVE COMPLEX TERRAIN IN THE WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING MODEL  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

11.1 DEVELOPMENT OF AN IMMERSED BOUNDARY METHOD TO RESOLVE COMPLEX TERRAIN IN THE WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING MODEL Katherine A. Lundquist1 , Fotini K. Chow 2 , Julie K. Lundquist 3 , and Jeffery D. Mirocha 3 in urban areas are profoundly influenced by the presence of build- ings which divert mean flow, affect

Chow, Fotini Katopodes

50

Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for†numerical†weather†prediction†and†climate†models. ††Abstract:† Numerical†weather†prediction†(NWP)†models†are†Model†output†statistics†(MOS),†Numerical†Weather†Prediction†(

Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

51

A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Multiscale†Numerical†Weather†Prediction†Model. ††Progress†assimilating†numerical†weather†prediction†model†for†solar†customizable† numerical†weather†prediction†model†that†is†

Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

Model error in weather forecasting D. Orrell 1,2 , L. Smith 1,3 , J. Barkmeijer 4 , and T. Palmer 4  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

numerical weather prediction mod­ els. A simple law is derived to relate model error to likely shadowingModel error in weather forecasting D. Orrell 1,2 , L. Smith 1,3 , J. Barkmeijer 4 , and T. Palmer 4 in the model, and inac­ curate initial conditions (Bjerknes, 1911). Because weather models are thought

Smith, Leonard A

53

Weather  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

and the variations in atmospheric conditions that produce weather. The Weather Machine, LANL's meteorological monitoring program, supports Laboratory operations and...

54

Lessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

weather under the guidance of weather data generated by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data. It has been used for the past year by Weathernews (UK) Ltd weather prediction information fulfilling the needs of the end user. This task requires them to use NWP

Sripada, Yaji

55

COSPAR/ILWS roadmap on space weather research and forecasting: community input COSPAR and the International Living With a Star (ILWS) steering committee have commissioned a strategic  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

COSPAR/ILWS roadmap on space weather research and forecasting: community input commissioned a strategic planning activity (or roadmap) focusing on the ability access as supplemental information to the roadmap report. In order

Schrijver, Karel

56

VISUAL QUERY OF TIME-DEPENDENT 3D WEATHER IN A GLOBAL GEOSPATIAL  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 VISUAL QUERY OF TIME-DEPENDENT 3D WEATHER IN A GLOBAL GEOSPATIAL ENVIRONMENT William Ribarsky and Spatial Analysis Technologies, Georgia Institute of Technology This Technical Report is a draft WEATHER IN A GLOBAL GEOSPATIAL ENVIRONMENT William Ribarsky, Nickolas Faust, Zachary Wartell, Christopher

Shaw, Chris

57

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation Cyril a hybrid ARMA/ANN model and data issued from a numerical weather prediction model (ALADIN). We particularly@gmail.com #12;Abstract. We propose in this paper an original technique to predict global radiation using

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

58

Distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts combining information from radar and numerical weather prediction model outputs  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Applications of distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) range from flood forecasting to transportation. Obtaining QPF is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging areas in hydrology and meteorology. ...

Ganguly, Auroop Ratan

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and†validation. ††Solar†Energy. ††73:5,†307? Perez,†R. ,†irradiance†forecasts†for†solar†energy†applications†based†on†forecast†database. ††Solar†Energy. ††81:6,†809?812. †

Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

60

Streamflow Forecasting Based on Statistical Applications and Measurements Made with Rain Gage and Weather Radar  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Techniques for streamflow forecasting are developed and tested for the Little Washita River in Oklahoma. The basic input for streamflow forecasts is rainfall. the rainfall amounts may be obtained from several sources; however, this study...

Hudlow, M.D.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Mountain Weather Research and Forecasting Chapter 12: Bridging the Gap between Operations and Research to  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and Research to Improve Weather Prediction in Mountainous Regions W. James Steenburgh Department of Atmospheric tools, and numerical models, and inhibits researchers from fully evaluating weaknesses in current integrated collaboration to address critical challenges for weather prediction in mountainous regions

Steenburgh, Jim

62

Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Downward†surface†solar†radiation† data†released†at†12†UTC†forecast†shortwave†radiation†with†data†obtained†from†the†radiation:†† A†statistical†approach†using†satellite†data. ††

Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

63

A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is†critical†for†coastal†California†solar†forecasting. ††affecting†solar†irradiance†in†southern†California. ††solar† photovoltaic†generation†(the†southern†California†

Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting Shahriar Shafiee a,n  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

into the relationship between gold price and other key influencing variables, such as oil price and global inflationAn overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting Shahriar Shafiee a,n , Erkan Topal b history: Received 6 February 2009 Received in revised form 20 April 2010 Accepted 17 May 2010 Jel

Boisvert, Jeff

65

Time series modeling and large scale global solar radiation forecasting from geostationary satellites data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Time series modeling and large scale global solar radiation forecasting from geostationary global solar radiation. In this paper, we use geostationary satellites data to generate 2-D time series of solar radiation for the next hour. The results presented in this paper relate to a particular territory

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

66

A framework for predicting global silicate weathering and CO2 drawdown rates over geologic time-scales  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A framework for predicting global silicate weathering and CO2 drawdown rates over geologic time (received for review February 15, 2008) Global silicate weathering drives long-time-scale fluctuations in atmospheric CO2. While tectonics, climate, and rock-type influence silicate weathering, it is unclear how

Hilley, George

67

Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and†validation. ††Solar†Energy. ††73:5,†307? Perez,†R. ,†irradiance†forecasts†for†solar†energy†applications†based†on†using†satellite†data. ††Solar†Energy†67:1?3,†139?150. †

Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

Weather  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear SecurityTensile Strain Switched FerromagnetismWaste and Materials Disposition3 WaterFebruary 18,theWeather Weather We

69

Global and multi-scale features of solar wind-magnetosphere coupling: From modeling to forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and substorms; 2784 Magnetospheric Physics: Solar wind/magnetosphere interactions; 3210 Mathematical Geophysics in the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction, de- veloping first principles models that encompass allGlobal and multi-scale features of solar wind-magnetosphere coupling: From modeling to forecasting

Sitnov, Mikhail I.

70

24-hours ahead global irradiation forecasting using Multi-Layer Cyril Voyant1*  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

; it is shown that the most relevant is based on a multi- output MLP using endogenous and exogenous input data ahead. In the case of solar plants, the driving factor is the global solar irradiation (sum of direct and diffuse solar radiation projected on a plane (Wh/m≤)). This paper focuses on the 24-hours ahead forecast

Paris-Sud XI, Universitť de

71

Thunderstorm lightning and radar characteristics: insights on electrification and severe weather forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

thunderstorm?s dynamics and electrification processes operate. The advent of the WSR- 88D nationwide (U. S.) radar system, the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), and 3-dimensional lightning mapping systems (here the Lightning Detection... that are related to storm intensity and can assist in predicting severe weather. 2. Data and methodology The radar data used in this study were from the Dallas-Fort Worth WSR-88D (KFWS), obtained from the National Climatic Data Center...

Steiger, Scott Michael

2007-04-25T23:59:59.000Z

72

IS CHEMICAL INDEX OF ALTERATION (CIA) A RELIABLE PROXY FOR CHEMICAL WEATHERING IN GLOBAL DRAINAGE BASINS?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

IS CHEMICAL INDEX OF ALTERATION (CIA) A RELIABLE PROXY FOR CHEMICAL WEATHERING IN GLOBAL DRAINAGE Road, Shanghai 200092 China; Tel: 86-21-6598 9130; Fax: 86-21-6598 6278 ABSTRACT. The chemical as the most important carrier of terrigenous materials into the sea. The chemical index of alteration (CIA

Yang, Shouye

73

The Los Alamos dynamic radiation environment assimilation model (DREAM) for space weather specification and forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to assess, quantify, and predict the hazards from the natural space environment and the anthropogenic environment produced by high altitude nuclear explosions (HANE). DREAM was initially developed as a basic research activity to understand and predict the dynamics of the Earth's Van Allen radiation belts. It uses Kalman filter techniques to assimilate data from space environment instruments with a physics-based model of the radiation belts. DREAM can assimilate data from a variety of types of instruments and data with various levels of resolution and fidelity by assigning appropriate uncertainties to the observations. Data from any spacecraft orbit can be assimilated but DREAM was designed to function with as few as two spacecraft inputs: one from geosynchronous orbit and one from GPS orbit. With those inputs, DREAM can be used to predict the environment at any satellite in any orbit whether space environment data are available in those orbits or not. Even with very limited data input and relatively simple physics models, DREAM specifies the space environment in the radiation belts to a high level of accuracy. DREAM has been extensively tested and evaluated as we transition from research to operations. We report here on one set of test results in which we predict the environment in a highly-elliptical polar orbit. We also discuss long-duration reanalysis for spacecraft design, using DREAM for real-time operations, and prospects for 1-week forecasts of the radiation belt environment.

Reeves, Geoffrey D [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Friedel, Reiner H W [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Chen, Yue [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Koller, Josef [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Henderson, Michael G [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is to issue deterministic forecasts based on numerical weather prediction models. Uncertainty canProbabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc discretization than is seen in other weather quantities. The prevailing paradigm in weather forecasting

Washington at Seattle, University of

75

Effects of soot-induced snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western United States based on Weather Research and Forecasting chemistry and regional climate simulations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Radiative forcing induced by soot on snow is a major anthropogenic forcing affecting the global climate. However, it is uncertain how the soot-induced snow albedo perturbation affects regional snowpack and the hydrological cycle. In this study we simulated the deposition of soot aerosol on snow and investigated the resulting impact on snowpack and the surface water budget in the western United States. A yearlong simulation was performed using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) to determine an annual budget of soot deposition, followed by two regional climate simulations using WRF in meteorology-only mode, with and without the soot-induced snow albedo perturbations. The chemistry simulation shows large spatial variability in soot deposition that reflects the localized emissions and the influence of the complex terrain. The soot-induced snow albedo perturbations increase the net solar radiation flux at the surface during late winter to early spring, increase the surface air temperature, reduce snow water equivalent amount, and lead to reduced snow accumulation and less spring snowmelt. These effects are stronger over the central Rockies and southern Alberta, where soot deposition and snowpack overlap the most. The indirect forcing of soot accelerates snowmelt and alters stream flows, including a trend toward earlier melt dates in the western United States. The soot-induced albedo reduction initiates a positive feedback process whereby dirty snow absorbs more solar radiation, heating the surface and warming the air. This warming causes reduced snow depth and fraction, which further reduces the regional surface albedo for the snow covered regions. Our simulations indicate that the change of maximum snow albedo induced by soot on snow contributes to 60% of the net albedo reduction over the central Rockies. Snowpack reduction accounts for the additional 40%.

Qian, Yun; Gustafson, William I.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ghan, Steven J.

2009-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

76

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,Ēforecasting of solar- radiation data,Ē Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended

Hamill, Tom

78

The Quality of a 48-Hours Wind Power Forecast Using the German and Danish Weather Prediction Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

numerical weather prediction models operated by the weather services are refined by taking into account stock exchange. The typical predic- tion time horizon which is needed for these purposes is 3 to 48 are applied taking into account the effects from lo- cal roughness, thermal stratification of the atmosphere

Heinemann, Detlev

79

Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear SecurityTensile Strain Switched Ferromagnetism inS-4500II FieldVacancy-InducedCloud Properties Derived from

80

Optimization Online - Economic Impacts of Advanced Weather ...  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Mar 5, 2010 ... Economic Impacts of Advanced Weather Forecasting on Energy System ... that state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models can†...

Victor M. Zavala

2010-03-05T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

P2.3 DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPREHENSIVE SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST VERIFICATION SYSTEM AT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: Andrew R. Dean, CIMMS, Univ. of Oklahoma, National Weather Center, Suite 2300, Norman, OK 73072-7268; e PREDICTION CENTER Andrew R. Dean*1,2 , Russell S. Schneider 2 , and Joseph T. Schaefer 2 1 Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 2 NOAA/NWS Storm

82

Evaluation of Mixed-Phase Cloud Parameterizations in Short-Range Weather Forecasts with CAM3 and AM2 for Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

By making use of the in-situ data collected from the recent Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment, we have tested the mixed-phase cloud parameterizations used in the two major U.S. climate models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory climate model (AM2), under both the single-column modeling framework and the U.S. Department of Energy Climate Change Prediction Program-Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Parameterization Testbed. An improved and more physically based cloud microphysical scheme for CAM3 has been also tested. The single-column modeling tests were summarized in the second quarter 2007 Atmospheric Radiation Measurement metric report. In the current report, we document the performance of these microphysical schemes in short-range weather forecasts using the Climate Chagne Prediction Program Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Parameterizaiton Testbest strategy, in which we initialize CAM3 and AM2 with realistic atmospheric states from numerical weather prediction analyses for the period when Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment was conducted.

Xie, S; Boyle, J; Klein, S; Liu, X; Ghan, S

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

83

Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

2009-03-23T23:59:59.000Z

84

GET your forecast at the click of a button.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

GET your forecast at the click of a button. EXPLORE your local weather in detail. PLAN your days favourite locations; · Pan and zoom to any area in Australia; · Combine the latest weather and forecast current temperatures across Australia. MetEyeTM computer screen image displaying the weather forecast

Greenslade, Diana

85

Warm weather's a comin'! Performance Dependence on Closure  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

contributed also by Aaron Rosenberg!! #12;Wind Forecasting using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Mesoscale weather models often predict the height of the LLJ too high and the magnitude too low Overwhelming 18-hr.forecasts initialized at 18Z Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model #12;Dissipation

McCalley, James D.

86

Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-term Electricity Demand Forecasting System 1) Obtain Daily Regional Temperatures 6) Estimate Daily WeatherLoad Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l­ Load forecast methodology ­ Drivers of the forecast f i­ Treatment of conservation

87

P9.137 The SPC Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity: Overview and Results from the 2012 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

P9.137 The SPC Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity: Overview and Results from the 2012 Hazardous) available to forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has been increasing over the past few years to examine and scrutinize the data in creating a forecast has not changed. Thus, the concept of the SPC Storm

88

Global precipitation retrieval algorithm trained for SSMIS using a numerical weather prediction model: Design and evaluation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper presents and evaluates a global precipitation retrieval algorithm for the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS). It is based on those developed earlier for the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) ...

Surussavadee, Chinnawat

89

Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

CERN. Geneva

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

90

The temporal cascade structure of reanalyses and Global Circulation models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and stochastic forecasting. 1. Introduction "Weather prediction by Numerical Process" (Richardson, 1922 equations. While these equations are deterministic, numerical weather prediction has been increasingly of the deterministic models. Interestingly, Richardson is not only the father of numerical weather forecasting, he

Lovejoy, Shaun

91

Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Zhao, Feng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

Time series modeling and large scale global solar radiation forecasting from geostationary satellites data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

When a territory is poorly instrumented, geostationary satellites data can be useful to predict global solar radiation. In this paper, we use geostationary satellites data to generate 2-D time series of solar radiation for the next hour. The results presented in this paper relate to a particular territory, the Corsica Island, but as data used are available for the entire surface of the globe, our method can be easily exploited to another place. Indeed 2-D hourly time series are extracted from the HelioClim-3 surface solar irradiation database treated by the Heliosat-2 model. Each point of the map have been used as training data and inputs of artificial neural networks (ANN) and as inputs for two persistence models (scaled or not). Comparisons between these models and clear sky estimations were proceeded to evaluate the performances. We found a normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) close to 16.5% for the two best predictors (scaled persistence and ANN) equivalent to 35-45% related to ground measurements. F...

Voyant, Cyril; Muselli, Marc; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie Laure

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area

94

A Global View on the Wind Sea and Swell Climate and Variability from ERA-40 ALVARO SEMEDO  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Global View on the Wind Sea and Swell Climate and Variability from ERA-40 ALVARO SEMEDO 2010) ABSTRACT In this paper a detailed global climatology of wind-sea and swell parameters, based on the 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) wave reanalysis

Haak, Hein

95

The Complexity of Forecast Testing Lance Fortnow # Rakesh V. Vohra +  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Complexity of Forecast Testing Lance Fortnow # Rakesh V. Vohra + Abstract Consider a weather forecaster predicting a probability of rain for the next day. We consider tests that given a finite sequence of forecast predictions and outcomes will either pass or fail the forecaster. Sandroni shows that any test

Fortnow, Lance

96

Analysis and forecast improvements from simulated satellite water vapor profiles and rainfall using a global data assimilation system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The potential improvements of analyses and forecasts from the use of satellite-observed rainfall and water vapor measurements from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Sensor Microwave (SSM) T-1 and T-2 instruments are investigated in a series of observing system simulation experiments using the Air Force Phillips Laboratory (formerly Air Force Geophysics Laboratory) data assimilation system. Simulated SSM radiances are used directly in a radiance retrieval step following the conventional optimum interpolation analysis. Simulated rainfall rates in the tropics are used in a moist initialization procedure to improve the initial specification of divergence, moisture, and temperature. Results show improved analyses and forecasts of relative humidity and winds compared to the control experiment in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Forecast improvements are generally restricted to the first 1-3 days of the forecast. 27 refs., 11 figs.

Nehrkorn, T.; Hoffman, R.N.; Louis, J.F.; Isaacs, R.G.; Moncet, J.L. (Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States))

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

97

Gridded Operational Consensus Forecasts of 2-m Temperature over Australia CHERMELLE ENGEL  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-resolution grid. Local and in- ternational numerical weather prediction model inputs are found to have coarse by numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forecasts. As NWP models improve, public weather forecasting University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia ELIZABETH E. EBERT Centre for Australia Weather

Ebert, Beth

98

Interactive Weather Simulation and Visualization on a Display Wall  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

.hoai.ha,john.markus.bjorndalen,otto.anshus}@uit.no, {tormsh,daniels}@cs.uit.no Abstract. Numerical Weather Prediction models (NWP) used for op- erational Weather Model, WRF, Tiled Display Walls, Live Data Sets, On-Demand Computation. 1 Introduction Numerical Weather Prediction models for use in weather forecasting centers are often computed for a fixed static

Ha, Phuong H.

99

Scientist warns against overselling climate change Climate change forecasters should admit that they cannot predict how global warming will affect  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

that they cannot predict how global warming will affect individual countries, a leading physicist has said-of-deaths-from-ozone-predicted.html) Antarctic sea floor gives clues about effects of future global warming (/earth/environment/climatechange /5279223/Antarctic-sea-floor-gives-clues-about-affects-of-future-global-warming.html) The Vanishing Face

Stevenson, Paul

100

Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part I: Two-Meter Temperatures  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part I: Two-Meter Temperatures RENATE HAGEDORN European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom THOMAS for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) produced a reforecast dataset for a 2005 version of their ensemble

Hamill, Tom

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· advantage: no NWP data necessary ­ very actual shortest term forecasts possible · wind power inputAccuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method

Heinemann, Detlev

102

Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS) uses near-real-time atmospheric observa- tions and numerical weather prediction forecast guidance to produce three-dimensional forecasts of water temperature

103

Resource Adequacy Load Forecast A Report to the Resource Adequacy Advisory Committee  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

one hour peak demand and monthly energy assuming normal weather. The Council forecast includes loadsResource Adequacy Load Forecast A Report to the Resource Adequacy Advisory Committee Tom√°s of the assessment is the load forecast. The Council staff has recently developed a load forecast to be used

104

Error growth in poor ECMWF forecasts over the contiguous United States  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Successive improvements to the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting model have resulted in improved forecast performance over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). While the overall performance of the model in this region was found...

Modlin, Norman Ray

1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

105

Comparison of Model Forecast Skill of Sea-Level Pressure Along the East and West Coasts of the United States  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Comparison of Model Forecast Skill of Sea-Level Pressure Along the East and West Coasts, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington Submitted to: Weather and Forecasting May 2008 Revised recent advances in numerical weather prediction, major errors in short-range forecasts still occur

Mass, Clifford F.

106

Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing ďquasi-deterministicĒ components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

107

Commercial Weatherization  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Commercial buildings consume 19 percent of the energy used in the U.S. Learn how the Energy Department is supporting research and deployment on commercial weatherization.

108

Weatherization Roundup  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

More than 750 thousand homes were weatherized by the Departmentís Weatherization Assistance Program in the past three years. Secretary Chu spoke with governors and members of Congress around the country to celebrate this huge accomplishment -- which was finished ahead of schedule and is saving the average household $400 annually on their heating and cooling bills.

109

Solar Forecasting  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

On December 7, 2012,†DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

110

Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties associated with the best...

Ham, Joy L

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

111

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub

112

Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

from numerical weather prediction models, which is based on a state-of-the-art circular-processing techniques for forecasts from numerical weather prediction models tend to become ineffective or inapplicableBias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction Le

Washington at Seattle, University of

113

A Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Improving Short-Term Forecasting of Hospital Demand by Including Meteorological  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Improving Short-Term Forecasting of Hospital Demand by Including Sarran4 Abstract The effect of weather on health has been widely researched, and the ability to forecast, better predictions of hospital demand that are more sensitive to fluctuations in weather can allow

Sahu, Sujit K

114

Weatherizing America  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

As Recovery Act money arrives to expand home weatherization programs across the country, Zachary Stewart of Phoenix, Ariz., and others have found an exciting opportunity not only to start working...

115

Weatherizing America  

ScienceCinema (OSTI)

As Recovery Act money arrives to expand home weatherization programs across the country, Zachary Stewart of Phoenix, Ariz., and others have found an exciting opportunity not only to start working again, but also to find a calling.

Stewart, Zachary; Bergeron, T.J.; Barth, Dale; Qualis, Xavier; Sewall, Travis; Fransen, Richard; Gill, Tony;

2013-05-29T23:59:59.000Z

116

Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

distribution; Numerical weather prediction; Skewed distribution; Truncated data; Wind energy. 1. INTRODUCTION- native. Purely statistical methods have been applied to short-range forecasts for wind speed only a fewProbabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc

Raftery, Adrian

117

Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom JEFFREY S. WHITAKER NOAA/Earth System Research As a companion to Part I, which discussed the calibration of probabilistic 2-m temperature forecasts using large

Hamill, Tom

118

NCEP Products Available to Distribute to CONDUIT High-Resolution Window Forecast System (HIRESW) Full  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NCEP Products Available to Distribute to CONDUIT Phase 1 High-Resolution Window Forecast System Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) Full Description Product Location The RTOFS for the North Atlantic resolution nest Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) system Full Description Product Location (hwrf

119

Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Speed: Ensemble Model Output Statistics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Over the past two decades, ensembles of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been developed and phrases: Continuous ranked probability score; Density forecast; Ensem- ble system; Numerical weather prediction; Heteroskedastic censored regression; Tobit model; Wind energy. 1 #12;1 Introduction Accurate

Washington at Seattle, University of

120

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia and Sunshine Coast. FURTHER INFORMATION : www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS © Commonwealth of Australia, 2013 Links

Greenslade, Diana

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of all Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP models). First aof all Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP models). First apersistence models, numerical weather predictions as well as

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

122

Temporal Changes in Wind as Objects for Evaluating Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

a method of evaluating numerical weather prediction models by comparing the characteristics of temporal for biases in features forecast by the model. 1. Introduction Verification of numerical weather predictionTemporal Changes in Wind as Objects for Evaluating Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction DARAN L

Knievel, Jason Clark

123

The Uncoordinated Giant: Why U.S. Weather Research and Prediction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 The Uncoordinated Giant: Why U.S. Weather Research and Prediction Are Not Achieving.S. meteorological community has made significant strides in weather diagnosis and prediction, progress has been such problems in a number of areas, ranging from numerical weather prediction to forecast dissemination

Mass, Clifford F.

124

Forecasted Opportunities  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmospheric Optical Depth7-1D: Vegetation ProposedUsing ZirconiaPolicyFeasibilityFieldMinds" |beamtheFor yourForForecasted

125

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS DISTRICT FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS DISTRICT FORECASTS IMPROVEMENTS FOR QUEENSLAND across Australia From October 2013, new and improved district forecasts will be introduced in Queensland Protection times FURTHER INFORMATION : www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS © Commonwealth of Australia, 2013 PTO> Wind

Greenslade, Diana

126

A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection- Allowing and Large Submitted to Weather and Forecasting in October 2008, Accepted in January 2009 * Corresponding author precipitation forecasts from a 5-member, 4-km grid-spacing (ENS4) and a 15-member, 20-km grid-spacing (ENS20

Droegemeier, Kelvin K.

127

Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles ADRIAN E. RAFTERY, TILMANN GNEITING, FADOUA BALABDAOUI, AND MICHAEL POLAKOWSKI  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles ADRIAN E. RAFTERY, TILMANN GNEITING for probabilistic weather forecasting often exhibit a spread-error correlation, but they tend to be underdispersive centered on the individual bias-corrected forecasts, where the weights are equal to posterior probabilities

Raftery, Adrian

128

Residential Weatherization  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -the Mid-Infrared atEffectquestionnairesU.S. EnergyEnergy53 2.370Weatherization

129

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

130

Visually Accurate Multi-Field Weather Visualization Purdue University  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-dimensional, and involve global scale phenomena. Less commonly, but no less importantly, weather events are examined weather pat- terns, they are ineffective when examining storm scale weather phe- nomena. Two@cs.utah.edu Jason Levit University of Oklahoma jlevit@ou.edu Figure 1: Time Series of a Cloud Scale Visualization

Utah, University of

131

Machine Learning Enhancement of Storm-Scale Ensemble Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Machine Learning Enhancement of Storm-Scale Ensemble Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation uncertainty. Machine learning methods can produce calibrated probabilistic forecasts from the raw ensemble and machine learning are working to address these challenges. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models

Xue, Ming

132

AIR QUALITY ENSEMBLE FORECAST COUPLING ARPEGE AND CHIMERE OVER WESTERN EUROPE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AIR QUALITY ENSEMBLE FORECAST COUPLING ARPEGE AND CHIMERE OVER WESTERN EUROPE Carvalho of the results encountered on numerical weather prediction ensemble runs has encouraged the air quality modellers' community to test the same methodology to foresee air pollutants concentrations

Menut, Laurent

133

Air-Conditioning Effect Estimation for Mid-Term Forecasts of Tunisian Electricity Consumption  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Air-Conditioning Effect Estimation for Mid-Term Forecasts of Tunisian Electricity Consumption Tunisian electricity consumption (the residential sector represents 68% of this class of consumers). Nevertheless, with the Tunisian electricity consumption context, models elaborating which take account weather

Boyer, Edmond

134

Weatherization Training for South Carolina's Muggy Weather  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Why it makes sense for one technical college in Charleston, South Carolina is adding weatherization programs to their curriculum.

135

Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of...

136

Cathy Zoi on Weatherization  

ScienceCinema (OSTI)

Right now, the Weatherization Assistance Program is now weatherizing 25,000 homes each month. So far 10,000 jobs have been created under the Recovery Act.

Zoi, Cath

2013-05-29T23:59:59.000Z

137

Cathy Zoi on Weatherization  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Right now, the Weatherization Assistance Program is now weatherizing 25,000 homes each month. So far 10,000 jobs have been created under the Recovery Act.

Zoi, Cath

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

138

Global  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmospheric Optical Depth7-1D: Vegetation ProposedUsingFun with Big Sky LearningGet Assistance GetGiant ProteaseGlass andT.2 -Global

139

Paper accepted for presentation at 2003 IEEE Bologna PowerTech Conference, June 23-26, Bologna, Italy Wind Power Forecasting using Fuzzy Neural Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, Italy Wind Power Forecasting using Fuzzy Neural Networks Enhanced with On-line Prediction Risk) as input, to predict the power production of wind park8 48 hours ahead. The prediction system integrates of the numerical weather predictions. Index Term-Wind power, short-term forecasting, numerical weather predictions

Paris-Sud XI, Universitť de

140

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 00: 115 (0000) Controlling model error of underdamped forecast models in  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-dependent predictability, ensemble methods have become popular for producing numerical weather forecasts (Molteni weather prediction or climate dynamics. In such simulations numerical codes tend to produce large errors of the forecast model and a numerical model error due to the choice of the numerical method used to simulate those

Gottwald, Georg A.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

142

Hourly Temperature Forecasting Using Abductive Networks R. E. Abdel-Aal  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, Saudi Arabia Abstract: Hourly temperature forecasts are important for electrical load forecasting temperatures, Artificial intelligence. Dr. R. E. Abdel-Aal, P. O. Box 1759, KFUPM, Dhahran 31261 Saudi Arabia e appropriate actions such as spraying protective fungicides (Francis, 2000; Kim et al., 2002). Road weather

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

143

American Solar Energy Society Proc. ASES Annual Conference, Raleigh, NC, EVALUATION OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

© American Solar Energy Society ­ Proc. ASES Annual Conference, Raleigh, NC, EVALUATION;© American Solar Energy Society ­ Proc. ASES Annual Conference, Raleigh, NC, irradiance forecasts over OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTS IN THE US Richard Perez ASRC, Albany, NY, Perez

Perez, Richard R.

144

GEO Secretariat Global Earth Observing System of  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and Epidemiology 3. Energy Management 4. Climate Variability & Change 5. Water Management 6. Weather Forecasting 7 ­ 2009-11 Work Plan Objective: to improve the management and protection of terrestrial, coastal

145

Azores Global Atmosphere Monitoring Complex 1. INTRODUCTION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to the accuracy of European weather forecasts. Today, they provide a unique base for studies of atmospheric levels. Measurements in the free troposphere (FT) are particularly useful, because trace gas and particle

Honrath, Richard E.

146

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast

147

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 AUGUST 16, 2012  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

there is significant uncertainty in its future intensity, the current forecast is for a slowly strengthening TC which, 3) forecast output from global models, 4) the current and projected state of the Madden with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all

Gray, William

148

Intelligent weather agent for aircraft severe weather avoidance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

avoidance capability has increased. In this thesis, an intelligent weather agent is developed for general aviation aircraft. Using a radar image from an onboard weather radar, the intelligent weather agent determines the safest path around severe weather...

Bokadia, Sangeeta

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

Hydrometeorological aspects of the Real-Time Ultrafinescale Forecast Support during the Special Observing Period of MAP Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 877889 (2003) EGU  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-Italian border region were predicted correctly by data from the numerical weather models linked application of numerical weather prediction data to forecast flows over a very large, multinational domain points, covering the whole of theAlpine region. These high resolution numerical weather prediction data

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

150

AMPS, a real-time mesoscale modeling system, has provided a decade of service for scientific and logistical needs and has helped advance polar numerical weather prediction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and logistical needs and has helped advance polar numerical weather prediction as well as understanding support for the USAP. The concern at the time was the numerical weather prediction (NWP) guidance-time implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF; Skamarock et al. 2008) to support the U

Howat, Ian M.

151

WEATHER HAZARDS Basic Climatology  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Prediction Center (SPC) Watch Atmospheric conditions are right for hazardous weather ­ hazardous weather is likely to occur Issued by SPC Warning Hazardous weather is either imminent or occurring Issued by local NWS office #12;Outlooks--SPC Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Outlook=Convective Outlook Day 1 Day 2

152

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

Online short-term solar power forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

154

The wind power probability density forecast problem can be formulated as: forecast the wind power pdf at time step t for each look-ahead time step t+k of a given time-horizon  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The wind power probability density forecast problem can be formulated as: forecast the wind power ahead) knowing a set of explanatory variables (e.g. numerical weather predictions (NWPs), wind power measured values). Translating this sentence to an equation, we have: where pt+k is the wind power

Kemner, Ken

155

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy

156

TESLA: Taylor Expanded Solar Analog Forecasting Bengu Ozge Akyurek, Alper Sinan Akyurek, Jan Kleissl and Tajana Simunic Rosing  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

TESLA: Taylor Expanded Solar Analog Forecasting Bengu Ozge Akyurek, Alper Sinan Akyurek, Jan- ergy resources within the Smart Grid, solar forecasting has become an important problem for hour]. It is difficult to obtain an accurate result from the weather and solar predictions. Accurate fore- casting

Simunic, Tajana

157

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations Ė the Northern Study Area.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast

Finley, Cathy [WindLogics

2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

158

Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is ≥delayed≤ and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

2014-07-25T23:59:59.000Z

159

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

160

Rainfall-River Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

;2Rainfall-River Forecasting Joint Summit II NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program · Minimize losses due management and enhance America's coastal assets · Expand information for managing America's Water Resources, Precipitation and Water Quality Observations · USACE Reservoir Operation Information, Streamflow, Snowpack

US Army Corps of Engineers

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE ...  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of atmospheric data, increased computational power, and the continued im- provement of ... If the state of the atmosphere (temperatures, pressures, humidities, wind ..... In terms of stability, the SAND approach has two potential advantages.

162

Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climate Change Center at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (M. Tyree, staff scientist, personal communication).

Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

Evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

America, South America, portions of Africa, southern Asia, Europe (specifically near the Baltic sea direct ramifications for renewable wind energy production (e.g. Sisterson and Frenzen8: Implications for Wind Energy Brandon Storm*, Wind Science and Engineering Research Center, Texas Tech

Basu, Sukanta

164

Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -the Mid-Infrared0 Resource ProgramEnergy Innovation Portal

165

APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic

Katz, Richard

166

CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data  

DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

Klein, Stephen

167

Critical Fire Weather Patterns  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

.1 Sundowner Winds FAT -- 1.1 Southeastern U.S. Fire Weather LIT -- 1.1 East Winds MFR -- 1.1 East Winds OLM

Clements, Craig

168

Hydrologic sensitivities of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River basin, California, to global warming  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The hydrologic sensitivities of four medium-sized mountainous catchments in the Sacramento and San Joaquin River basins to long-term global warming were analyzed. The hydrologic response of these catchments, all of which are dominated by spring snowmelt runoff, were simulated by the coupling of the snowmelt and the soil moisture accounting models of the U.S. National Weather Service River Forecast System. In all four catchments the global warming pattern, which was indexed to CO{sub 2} doubling scenarios simulated by three (global) general circulation models, produced a major seasonal shift in the snow accumulation pattern. Under the alternative climate scenarios more winter precipitation fell as rain instead of snow, and winter runoff increased while spring snowmelt runoff decreased. In addition, large increases in the annual flood maxima were simulated, primarily due to an increase in rain-on-snow events, with the time of occurrence of many large floods shifting from spring to winter.

Lettenmaier, D.P. (Univ. of Washington, Seattle (USA)); Gan, Thian Yew (Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok (Thailand))

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast

170

Cathy Zoi on Weatherization | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Weatherization Cathy Zoi on Weatherization Addthis Description The Weatherization Assistance Program is now weatherizing 25,000 homes each month. So far 10,000 jobs have been...

171

Paintball Summer Weather  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Highlights · Paintball · Summer Weather · Birthdays · Manners TheELIWeekly Paintball! Come out France Iraq Japan Korea Kuwait Libya Netherlands Niger Peru Qatar Saudi Arabia Spain Taiwan Thailand Turkey United States Venezuela Summer Weather Safety We've come to realize in the past that not all

Pilyugin, Sergei S.

172

Home Weatherization Visit  

ScienceCinema (OSTI)

Secretary Steven Chu visits a home that is in the process of being weatherized in Columbus, OH, along with Ohio Governor Ted Strickland and Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman. They discuss the benefits of weatherization and how funding from the recovery act is having a direct impact in communities across America.

Chu, Steven

2013-05-29T23:59:59.000Z

173

Probabilistic manpower forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas ASSAM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May, 1966 Major Subject...: Computer Science and Statistics PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis By JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas A@M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May...

Koonce, James Fitzhugh

1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1062ó1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): ďOnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgšssner, G. , and U. K.2005): ďEstimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under

Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

175

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and appropriately dispatch load-following power plants. Whenrequirements. Overall, load-following capacity requirementsto determine scheduling for load-following power plants and

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

176

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

fluctuations in renewable energy production (such as when aof renewable resources into the energy production portfolioof renewable energy are implemented, energy production is

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

177

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Piwko, 2010: Western wind and solar integration study. NRELsources such as wind and solar power. Integration of this

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

178

BUILDING A STOCHASTIC TERMINAL AIRSPACE CAPACITY FORECAST FROM CONVECTIVE WEATHER FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

open from the east into Boston Logan Airport at 5PM, or if flights should incur delay on the ground International Airport (ATL) termi- nal a that there is a 30% chance of rain in Boston today, for instance, does not help to determine if there will be a route

Gummadi, Ramakrishna

179

Extended Abstract, 20th Conf. Weather Analysis and Forecasting/ 16th Conf. Numerical Weather Prediction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. In the study, water and ice phase microphysical variables are first derived from the polariza- tion for an adjoint that should include detailed physics parameterizations and the high computational cost, 4DVAR,mxue@ou.edu. et al (2000) being one exception. In the latter, the ice mi- crophysics scheme used

Xue, Ming

180

Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use have come to expect. Potato late blight risk models were some of the earliest weather-based models. This analysis compares two types of potato late blight risk models that were originally trained on location

Douches, David S.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Weatherizing Wilkes-Barre  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Ride along with some weatherizers in Wilkes-Barre, PA, as they blower door test, manage z-doors, and dense pack their way to an energy efficient future one house at a time.

182

Weatherizing Wilkes-Barre  

ScienceCinema (OSTI)

Ride along with some weatherizers in Wilkes-Barre, PA, as they blower door test, manage z-doors, and dense pack their way to an energy efficient future one house at a time.

Calore, Joe

2013-05-29T23:59:59.000Z

183

Weatherizing Wilkes-Barre  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Ride along with some weatherizers in Wilkes-Barre, PA, as they blower door test, manage z-doors, and dense pack their way to an energy efficient future one house at a time.

Calore, Joe

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

184

Weather Regime Prediction Using Statistical Learning  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

most advanced numerical weather prediction models still havefor numerical weather prediction models. Acknowledgements It

A. Deloncle; R. Berk; F. D'Andrea; M. Ghil

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

186

3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

HESSD 3, 2145­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables F. Laio and S. Tamea DITIC ­ Department­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

187

4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

OSD 4, 189­212, 2007 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Science Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani 1 , N. Pinardi 2 , C. Fratianni 1 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

188

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary A document defining some of the terms used in the 2011 Production Forecast technical documentation. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the Forecast documentation. In some cases, the terms and the descriptions are "industry standard", in others

189

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 ­ List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically

190

TRAVEL DEMAND AND RELIABLE FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

TRAVEL DEMAND AND RELIABLE FORECASTS FOR TRANSIT MARK FILIPI, AICP PTP 23rd Annual Transportation transportation projects § Develop and maintain Regional Travel Demand Model § Develop forecast socio in cooperative review during all phases of travel demand forecasting 4 #12;Cooperative Review Should Include

Minnesota, University of

191

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in the consensus forecast produced in 2006, primarily from the decreased demand as a result of the current nationalConsensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks

Mohaghegh, Shahab

192

ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400 .......................................................................................................................................1-1 ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING AT THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION: AN OVERVIEW

193

Demand Forecasting of New Products  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Demand Forecasting of New Products Using Attribute Analysis Marina Kang A thesis submitted Abstract This thesis is a study into the demand forecasting of new products (also referred to as Stock upon currently employed new-SKU demand forecasting methods which involve the processing of large

Sun, Yu

194

Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

EMGT 835 FIELD PROJECT: Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting By Juan Mario Balandran jmbg@hotmail.com Master of Science The University of Kansas Fall Semester, 2005 An EMGT Field Project report submitted...............................................................................................................................................10 Current Inventory Forecast Process ...........................................................................................10 Development of Alternative Forecast Process...

Balandran, Juan

2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

195

CSUF Economic Outlook and Forecasts MidYear Update -April 2013  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CSUF Economic Outlook and Forecasts MidYear Update - April 2013 Anil Puri & Mira Farka Mihaylo College of Business and Economics California State University, Fullerton U.S. Economic Outlook to the forecast and a are-up in the region can easily derail the global economic recovery. Nonetheless

de Lijser, Peter

196

Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price because oil, coal, and natural gas are potential fuels for electricity generation. Natural gas

197

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Quantifying PV power output variability,Ē Solar Energy, vol.each solar sen at node i, P(t) the total power output of theSolar Forecasting Historically, traditional power generation technologies such as fossil and nu- clear power which were designed to run in stable output

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

198

11971197AUGUST 2007AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | The Global Ocean Data Assimilation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and in situ observations, for NWP, ocean forecasting, ecosystem applications, and climate research. BY C forecasting, military and defence operations, validating or forcing ocean and atmospheric models, ecosystem11971197AUGUST 2007AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | The Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment

Merchant, Chris

199

Weatherization Works!: Weatherization Assistance Program Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The United States demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

200

Portland Diversifying Weatherization Workforce  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

An agreement signed by a diverse group of stakeholders ensures that those in disadvantaged communities have access to some of the weatherization jobs stemming from the pilot phase of the Clean Energy Works Portland program, which has almost 500 homes receiving retrofits through the summer with the help of federal dollars.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

Heinemann, Detlev

202

Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes Marcel C. Guenther and Jeremy T. The global emergence of city bicycle hire schemes has re- cently received a lot of attention of future bicycle migration trends, as these assist service providers to ensure availability of bicycles

Imperial College, London

203

ASSIMILATION OF DOPPLER RADAR DATA INTO NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

During the year 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) completed an eight fold increase in sampling capability for weather radars to 250 m resolution. This increase is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current NWS operational model domains utilize grid spacing an order of magnitude larger than the radar data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of radar reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution was investigated under a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) 'quick hit' grant to determine the impact of improved data resolution on model predictions with specific initial proof of concept application to daily Savannah River Site operations and emergency response. Development of software to process NWS radar reflectivity and radial velocity data was undertaken for assimilation of observations into numerical models. Data values within the radar data volume undergo automated quality control (QC) analysis routines developed in support of this project to eliminate empty/missing data points, decrease anomalous propagation values, and determine error thresholds by utilizing the calculated variances among data values. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) three dimensional variational data assimilation package (WRF-3DVAR) was used to incorporate the QC'ed radar data into input and boundary conditions. The lack of observational data in the vicinity of SRS available to NWS operational models signifies an important data void where radar observations can provide significant input. These observations greatly enhance the knowledge of storm structures and the environmental conditions which influence their development. As the increase in computational power and availability has made higher resolution real-time model simulations possible, the need to obtain observations to both initialize numerical models and verify their output has become increasingly important. The assimilation of high resolution radar observations therefore provides a vital component in the development and utility of numerical model forecasts for both weather forecasting and contaminant transport, including future opportunities to improve wet deposition computations explicitly.

Chiswell, S.; Buckley, R.

2009-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

204

Forecasting oilfield economic performance  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended.

Bradley, M.E. (Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)); Wood, A.R.O. (BP Exploration, Anchorage, AK (United States))

1994-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

205

The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed.

Lynch, Peter [Meteorology and Climate Centre, School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Dublin, Belfield (Ireland)], E-mail: Peter.Lynch@ucd.ie

2008-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

206

The Dynamics of Deterministic Chaos in Numerical Weather Prediction Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Atmospheric weather systems are coherent structures consisting of discrete cloud cells forming patterns of rows/streets, mesoscale clusters and spiral bands which maintain their identity for the duration of their appreciable life times in the turbulent shear flow of the planetary Atmospheric Boundary Layer. The existence of coherent structures (seemingly systematic motion) in turbulent flows has been well established during the last 20 years of research in turbulence. Numerical weather prediction models based on the inherently non-linear Navier-Stokes equations do not give realistic forecasts because of the following inherent limitations: (1) the non-linear governing equations for atmospheric flows do not have exact analytic solutions and being sensitive to initial conditions give chaotic solutions characteristic of deterministic chaos (2) the governing equations do not incorporate the dynamical interactions and co-existence of the complete spectrum of turbulent fluctuations which form an integral part of the large coherent weather systems (3) limitations of available computer capacity necessitates severe truncation of the governing equations, thereby generating errors of approximations (4) the computer precision related roundoff errors magnify the earlier mentioned uncertainties exponentially with time and the model predictions become unrealistic. The accurate modelling of weather phenomena therefore requires alternative concepts and computational techniques. In this paper a universal theory of deterministic chaos applicable to the formation of coherent weather structures in the ABL is presented.

A. Mary Selvam

2003-10-07T23:59:59.000Z

207

accelerated weathering: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Winter Weather Safety www.weather.gov SnowIce Blizzards Flooding Cold Temperatures 12;Building a Weather 5 Weather Theory Weather Reports, Forcasts and...

208

Useful Weather Links Nolan Doesken  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Useful Weather Links Nolan Doesken Odie Bliss Colorado Climate Center Presented at Professional://www.weather.gov/nwr/ #12;City of Fort Collins Alert Network ­ Rainfall and Streamflow http

209

MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, and environmental effects. In turn, the greenhouse gas and atmospheric aerosol assumptions underlying climate-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re- Analysis (ERA-40). In this budget analysis, the chemical net production term

210

MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, and environmental effects. In turn, the greenhouse gas and atmospheric aerosol assumptions underlying climate) equation is calculated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re

211

A Statistical Solar Flare Forecast Method  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Bayesian approach to solar flare prediction has been developed, which uses only the event statistics of flares already observed. The method is simple, objective, and makes few ad hoc assumptions. It is argued that this approach should be used to provide a baseline prediction for certain space weather purposes, upon which other methods, incorporating additional information, can improve. A practical implementation of the method for whole-Sun prediction of Geostationary Observational Environment Satellite (GOES) events is described in detail, and is demonstrated for 4 November 2003, the day of the largest recorded GOES flare. A test of the method is described based on the historical record of GOES events (1975-2003), and a detailed comparison is made with US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predictions for 1987-2003. Although the NOAA forecasts incorporate a variety of other information, the present method out-performs the NOAA method in predicting mean numbers of event days, for both M-X and X events. Skill scores and other measures show that the present method is slightly less accurate at predicting M-X events than the NOAA method, but substantially more accurate at predicting X events, which are important contributors to space weather.

M. S. Wheatland

2005-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

212

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume Forecasts A document describing how growing stock (`standing') volume is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Growing stock volume forecasts Background A forecast of standing volume (or

213

NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 20 4010 Miles #12;Bay-S Pinellas Bay-UPR Bay Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12;Bay Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12

214

Price forecasting for notebook computers.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over aÖ (more)

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

Lew, D.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

216

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL

217

Accelerating Clean Energy Adoption (Fact Sheet), Weatherization...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Accelerating Clean Energy Adoption (Fact Sheet), Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) Accelerating Clean Energy Adoption (Fact Sheet), Weatherization and...

218

Weatherization Assistance Program: Spurring Innovation, Increasing...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Weatherization Assistance Program: Spurring Innovation, Increasing Home Energy Efficiency Weatherization Assistance Program: Spurring Innovation, Increasing Home Energy Efficiency...

219

Connecticut's Health Impact Study Rapidly Increasing Weatherization...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

of Weatherization Assistance Program Technical Assistance Center Donna Hawkins Technology Transfer Specialist, Weatherization Assistance Program Floris Weston Project Officer,...

220

Leveraging Resources for the Weatherization Innovation Pilot...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) - Webinar Transcript Leveraging Resources for the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) - Webinar Transcript This...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Leveraging Resources for Weatherization Innovation Pilot Projects...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Weatherization Innovation Pilot Projects (WIPP) Presentation Leveraging Resources for Weatherization Innovation Pilot Projects (WIPP) Presentation As a WIPP agency, reporting...

222

Subscribe to Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Office...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Subscribe to Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Office Newsletters Subscribe to Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Office Newsletters You can subscribe to...

223

Weatherization Assistance Program  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious Rank EERE:YearRound-Up from theDepartment of Dept.| DepartmentVolvoWaterWeatherization Assistance Program

224

Conservation The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

& Resources Creating Mr. Toad's Wild Ride for the PNW's Energy Efficiency InCreating Mr. Toad's Wild RideNorthwest Power and Conservation Council The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast ≠≠ Energy EfficiencyEnergy Efficiency Dominates ResourceDominates Resource DevelopmentDevelopment Tom EckmanTom Eckman

225

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH IPOS Anis attributes, ownership retained, auditor quality, and underwriter reputation and management earnings forecast quality measured by management earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Using 117 French IPOs, we find

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

226

STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK STAFFREPORT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2006 CEC-400....................................................................... .................11 Tables Table 1: Revised versus September 2005 Peak Demand Forecast ......................... 2.............................................................................................. 10 #12;Introduction and Background This document describes staff's updated 2007 peak demand forecasts

227

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand.Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product estimates. Margaret Sheridan provided the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand

228

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined provided estimates for demand response program impacts and contributed to the residential forecast. Mitch

229

2009 CAPS Spring Forecast Program Plan  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

package. · Two 18 UTC update forecasts on demand basis, with the same domain and configuration, running2009 CAPS Spring Forecast Experiment Program Plan April 20, 2009 #12;2 Table of Content 1. Overview .......................................................................................................4 3. Forecast System Configuration

Droegemeier, Kelvin K.

230

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Introduction.................................................................................................................................... 6 Demand................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast

231

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocateÖ (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

232

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast structures Stochastic trajectory Stochastic FTLE field Ensemble forecasting Uncertainty analysis a b s t r of the forecast FTLE fields is analyzed using ensemble forecasting. Unavoidable errors of the forecast velocity

Ross, Shane

233

Weather Photos - Hanford Site  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear SecurityTensile Strain Switched FerromagnetismWaste and Materials Disposition3 WaterFebruary 18,theWeather

234

Weather Photos - Hanford Site  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear SecurityTensile Strain Switched FerromagnetismWaste and Materials Disposition3 WaterFebruary 18,theWeather

235

Weather Photos - Hanford Site  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear SecurityTensile Strain Switched FerromagnetismWaste and Materials Disposition3 WaterFebruary 18,theWeather

236

Weather Photos - Hanford Site  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear SecurityTensile Strain Switched FerromagnetismWaste and Materials Disposition3 WaterFebruary 18,theWeather

237

WEATHER MODIFICATION BY CARBON DUST ABSORPTION OF SOLAR ENERGY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

WEATHER MODIFICATION BY CARBON DUST ABSORPTION OF SOLAR ENERGY by WM. M. GRAY, WM. M. FRANK, M OF SOLAR ENERGY by w. M. Gray, W. M. Frank, M. L. Corrin and C. A. Stokes Department of Atmospheric Science interception of solar energy. Growing population pressures and predicted future global food shortages dictate

Gray, William

238

Bishop Paiute Weatherization Training Program  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The DOE Weatherization Training Grant assisted Native American trainees in developing weatherization competencies, creating employment opportunities for Bishop Paiute tribal members in a growing field. The trainees completed all the necessary training and certification requirements and delivered high-quality weatherization services on the Bishop Paiute Reservation. Six tribal members received all three certifications for weatherization; four of the trainees are currently employed. The public benefit includes (1) development of marketable skills by low-income Native individuals, (2) employment for low-income Native individuals in a growing industry, and (3) economic development opportunities that were previously not available to these individuals or the Tribe.

Carlos Hernandez

2010-01-28T23:59:59.000Z

239

Weatherization Apprenticeship Program  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Weatherization improvement services will be provided to Native people by Native people. The proposed project will recruit, train and hire two full-time weatherization technicians who will improve the energy efficiency of homes of Alaska Natives/American Indians residing in the Indian areas, within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska. The Region includes Anchorage as well as 8 small tribal villages: The Native Villages of Eklutna, Knik, Chickaloon, Seldovia, Ninilchik, Kenaitze, Salamatof, and Tyonek. This project will be a partnership between three entities, with Cook Inlet Tribal Council (CITC) as the lead agency: CITCA's Employment and Training Services Department, Cook Inlet Housing Authority and Alaska Works Partnership. Additionally, six of the eight tribal villages within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska have agreed to work with the project in order to improve the energy efficiency of their tribally owned buildings and homes. The remaining three villages will be invited to participate in the establishment of an intertribal consortium through this project. Tribal homes and buildings within Anchorage fall under Cook Inlet Region, Inc. (CIRI) tribal authority.

Watson, Eric J

2012-12-18T23:59:59.000Z

240

Tropical Cyclone Data Assimilation: Experiments with a Coupled Global-Limited-Area Analysis System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the storm locations for moderate and weak storms. Improvements in the steering flow analysis due to increased resolution are modest and short-lived in the forecasts. Limited-area track forecasts are more accurate, on average, than global forecasts...

Holt, Christina

2014-04-22T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY dmitry.kucharavy@insa-strasbourg.fr Roland DE GUIO roland for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

242

Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating

Hamill, Tom

243

Forecast Combination With Outlier Protection Gang Chenga,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Combination With Outlier Protection Gang Chenga, , Yuhong Yanga,1 a313 Ford Hall, 224 Church St SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455 Abstract Numerous forecast combination schemes with distinct on combining forecasts with minimizing the occurrence of forecast outliers in mind. An unnoticed phenomenon

Yuhong, Yang

244

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals

245

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Department of Economics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Zhuo Chen Department of Economics Heady Hall 260 Iowa State forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form

246

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work to the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid provided the projections

247

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid provided the projections

248

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work Sheridan provided the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid

249

Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 1 Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model 2007 Federal prices are being inputted into the model 2 Sales forecast Select yearsSales forecast Select years --Draft 0.53% Irrigation 2.76% Annual Growth Rates Preliminary Electricity ForecastAnnual Growth Rates

250

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

251

Revised Economic andRevised Economic and Demand ForecastsDemand Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Revised Economic andRevised Economic and Demand ForecastsDemand Forecasts April 14, 2009 Massoud,000 MW #12;6 Demand Forecasts Price Effect (prior to conservation) - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30 Jourabchi #12;2 Changes since the Last Draft ForecastChanges since the Last Draft Forecast Improved

252

California climate change, hydrologic response, and flood forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

There is strong evidence that the lower atmosphere has been warming at an unprecedented rate during the last 50 years, and it is expected to further increase at least for the next 100 years. Warmer air mass implies a higher capacity to hold water vapor and an increased likelihood of an acceleration of the global water cycle. This acceleration is not validated and considerable new research has gone into understanding aspects of the water cycle (e.g. Miller et al. 2003). Several significant findings on the hydrologic response to climate change can be reported. It is well understood that the observed and expected warming is related to sea level rise. In a recent seminar at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, James Hansen (Director of the Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration) stressed that a 1.25 Wm{sup -2} increase in radiative forcing will lead to an increase in the near surface air temperature by 1 C. This small increase in temperature from 2000 levels is enough to cause very significant impacts to coasts. Maury Roos (Chief Hydrologist, California Department of Water Resources) has shown that a 0.3 m rise in sea level shifts the San Francisco Bay 100-year storm surge flood event to a 10-year event. Related coastal protection costs for California based on sea level rise are shown. In addition to rising sea level, snowmelt-related streamflow represents a particular problem in California. Model studies have indicated that there will be approximately a 50% decrease in snow pack by 2100. This potential deficit must be fully recognized and plans need to be put in place well in advance. In addition, the warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor and result in more intense warm winter-time precipitation events that result in flooding. During anticipated high flow, reservoirs need to release water to maintain their structural integrity. California is at risk of water shortages, floods, and related ecosystem stresses. More research needs to be done to further improve our ability to forecast weather events at longer time scales. Seasonal predictions have been statistical and only recently have studies begun to use ensemble simulations and historical observations to constrain such predictions. Understanding the mechanisms of large-scale atmospheric dynamics and its local impacts remain topics of intensive research. The ability to predict extreme events and provide policy makers with this information, along with climate change and hydrologic response information, will help to guide planning to form a more resilient infrastructure in the future.

Miller, Norman L.

2003-11-11T23:59:59.000Z

253

artificial weathering environment: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Nation Winter Weather Hazards Winter Weather Safety www.weather.gov SnowIce Blizzards Flooding Cold Temperatures 12;Building a Weather 37 4....

254

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence...

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

255

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN with primary contributions in the area of decision support for reservoir planning and management Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project

256

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN: California Energy Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH Martha

257

Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION0 Annual Update to the Forecasted  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Values in TWh forthe Year2022 Formula Mid Demand Forecast Renewable Net High Demand Forecast Renewable Net Low Demand Forecast Renewable Net #12;CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION5 Demand Forecast · Retail Sales Forecast from California Energy Demand 2012 2022(CED 2011), Adopted Forecast* ­ Form 1.1c · Demand Forecast

259

An adaptive neural network approach to one-week ahead load forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A new neural network approach is applied to one-week ahead load forecasting. This approach uses a linear adaptive neuron or adaptive linear combiner called Adaline.'' An energy spectrum is used to analyze the periodic components in a load sequence. The load sequence mainly consists of three components: base load component, and low and high frequency load components. Each load component has a unique frequency range. Load decomposition is made for the load sequence using digital filters with different passband frequencies. After load decomposition, each load component can be forecasted by an Adaline. Each Adaline has an input sequence, an output sequence, and a desired response-signal sequence. It also has a set of adjustable parameters called the weight vector. In load forecasting, the weight vector is designed to make the output sequence, the forecasted load, follow the actual load sequence; it also has a minimized Least Mean Square error. This approach is useful in forecasting unit scheduling commitments. Mean absolute percentage errors of less than 3.4 percent are derived from five months of utility data, thus demonstrating the high degree of accuracy that can be obtained without dependence on weather forecasts.

Peng, T.M. (Pacific Gas and Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (United States)); Hubele, N.F.; Karady, G.G. (Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States))

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

A technique for using historical analogues to forecast the central pressure of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific Ocean and south China Sea  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

been ound to be comparable to or better than conventional methods of forecasting ce"!tral pressures of. tropical cyclones. The analogue technique a'so has been compared to maximum-wind forecasts issued by the Fleet Weather Cen!!al/. Taint Typhoon... issued by the official warning ager. cy. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS My sincezest appreciation is extended to CDR J. D. Jarrell, USN, for his suggestions during the early stages of this research, and to Dr. Phanindzamohan Das for his patient guidance...

Wagoner, Richard Allen

1973-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern...

262

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts

263

Applying Bayesian Forecasting to Predict New Customers' Heating Oil Demand.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis presents a new forecasting technique that estimates energy demand by applying a Bayesian approach to forecasting. We introduce our Bayesian Heating Oil ForecasterÖ (more)

Sakauchi, Tsuginosuke

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

264

Tacoma Power- Residential Weatherization Rebate Program  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Tacoma Power helps residential customers increase the energy efficiency of homes through the utility's residential weatherization program. Weatherization upgrades to windows are eligible for an...

265

Administration Announces Nearly $8 Billion in Weatherization...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Administration Announces Nearly 8 Billion in Weatherization Funding and Energy Efficiency Grants Administration Announces Nearly 8 Billion in Weatherization Funding and Energy...

266

Monitoring Plan for Weatherization Assistance Program, State...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Monitoring Plan for Weatherization Assistance Program, State Energy Program and Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grants Monitoring Plan for Weatherization Assistance...

267

WeatherMaker: Weather file conversion and evaluation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

WeatherMaker is a weather-data utility for use with the ENERGY-10 design-tool computer program. The three main features are: Convert--Weather files can be converted from one format to another. For example, a TMY2 format file can be converted to an ENERGY-10 binary file that can be used in a simulation. This binary file can then be converted to a text format that allows it to be read and/or manipulated in WordPad or Excel. Evaluate--ENERGY-10 weather files can be studied in great detail. There are 8 graphical displays of the data that provide insight into the data, and a summary tables that presents results calculated from the hourly data. Adjust--Hourly temperature data can be adjusted starting with hourly data from a nearby TMY2 site. Dry-bulb and wet-bulb temperatures are adjusted up or down as required to match given monthly statistics. This feature can be used to generate weather files for any of 3,958 sites in the US where such monthly statistics are tabulated. The paper shows a variety of results, explains the methods used, and discusses the rationale for making the adjustments. It is anticipated that WeatherMaker will be released by the time of the ASES Solar 99 conference.

Balcomb, J.D.

1999-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

Oldest and Largest The Weather  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

MIT's Oldest and Largest Newspaper The Weather Today: Clear skies, 45¬įF (70C) Tonight: Clear, cool Eilts, former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Egypt and Professor Emeritus of Inter- national

269

Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

Low-Income Weatherization: The Human Dimension  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

This presentation focuses on how the human dimension saves energy within low-income weatherization programs.

271

Management forecast credibility and underreaction to news  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this paper, we first document evidence of underreaction to management forecast news. We then hypothesize that the credibility of the forecast influences the magnitude of this underreaction. Relying on evidence that more ...

Ng, Jeffrey

272

Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

Goodman, Theodore H.

273

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

Sathaye, Jayant

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

274

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Xue Wei NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO Fr¬īed¬īeric Vitart Seasonal Forecasting Group, ECMWF dataset of ensemble 're-forecasts' from a single model can significantly improve the skill

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.

275

Spectral analysis of ambient weather patterns  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A Fourier spectral analysis of ambient weather data, consisting of global and direct solar radiation, dry and wet bulb temperatures, and wind speed, is given. By analyzing the heating and cooling seasons independently, seasonal variations are isolated and a cleaner spectrum emerges. This represents an improvement over previous work in this area, in which data for the entire year were analyzed together. As a demonstration of the efficacy of this method, synthetic data constructed with a small number of parameters are used in typical simulations, and the results are compared with those obtained with the original data. A spectral characterization of fluctuations around the moving average is given, and the changes in the fluctuation from season to season are examined.

Anderson, J.V.; Subbarao, K.

1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

276

5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N. Q. Hung et al An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand N. Q. Hung, M. S. Babel, S Geosciences Union. 183 #12;HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

277

Ensemble Forecast of Analyses With Uncertainty Estimation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ensemble Forecast of Analyses With Uncertainty Estimation Vivien Mallet1,2, Gilles Stoltz3 2012 Mallet, Stoltz, Zhuk, Nakonechniy Ensemble Forecast of Analyses November 2012 1 / 14 hal-00947755,version1-21Feb2014 #12;Objective To produce the best forecast of a model state using a data assimilation

Boyer, Edmond

278

(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast ­ Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. ­ Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving

Hamill, Tom

279

Load forecast and treatment of conservation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

conservation is implicitly incorporated in the short-term demand forecast? #12;3 Incorporating conservationLoad forecast and treatment of conservation July 28th 2010 Resource Adequacy Technical Committee in the short-term model Our short-term model is an econometric model which can not explicitly forecast

280

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid provided the projections of commercial floor space

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2007 CEC-200 of the information in this paper. #12;Abstract This document describes staff's final forecast of 2008 peak demand demand forecasts for the respective territories of the state's three investor-owned utilities (IOUs

282

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous California Energy for demand response program impacts and contributed to the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared

283

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work provided estimates for demand response program impacts and contributed to the residential forecast. Mitch

284

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

285

Possible global warming futures Minh Ha-Duong  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Possible global warming futures Minh Ha-Duong Minh.Ha.Duong@cmu.edu CNRS, France HDGC, Carnegie Mellon Possible global warming futures ­ p.1/36 #12;SRES: Forecasts or scenarios? +5.5 C in 2100 the controversy using imprecise probabilities, a more general information theory. . . Possible global warming

286

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 Gorin Principal Authors Lynn Marshall Project Manager Kae C. Lewis Acting Manager Demand Analysis Office Valerie T. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency and Demand Analysis Division Scott W. Matthews Acting

287

Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present ThesisLoad Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration Lisa Buth Rasmussen Kongens Lyngby 2013 M.Sc.-2013

288

Global warming elucidated  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The meaning of global warming and its relevance to everyday life is explained. Simple thermodynamics is used to predict an oscillatory nature of the change in climate due to global warming. Global warming causes extreme events and bad weather in the near term. In the long term it may cause the earth to transition to another equilibrium state through many oscillation in climatic patterns. The magnitudes of these oscillations could easily exceed the difference between the end points. The author further explains why many no longer fully understands the nature and magnitudes of common phenomena such as storms and wind speeds because of these oscillations, and the absorptive properties of clouds. The author links the increase in duration of the El Nino to global warming, and further predicts public health risks as the earth transitions to another equilibrium state in its young history.

Shen, S. [Global Warming International Center, Woodridge, IL (United States)

1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake Erie  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

weather prediction step-coordinate Eta Model are able to forecast winds for the Great Lakes region, using Administration (NOAA) Coastal Ocean Program, the output of NCEP numerical atmospheric prediction models is being used as the forcing for numerical ocean prediction models for several U.S. coastal regions

290

Global ice sheet modeling  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed.

Hughes, T.J.; Fastook, J.L. [Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME (United States). Institute for Quaternary Studies

1994-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

291

Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability  

DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the modelís fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple ďweather regimes.Ē To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, ďbred vectorsĒ and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemble forecasts issued from ďcloudsĒ (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes.

Deremble, Bruno; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United Staes). Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics

2009-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

292

2008 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) Market Report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) integrates local needs and interests in order to promote markets for energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE). Its activities are integrative across disparate technologies and market boundaries. In order to analyze the historical performance and forward-looking potential of this broad program, this report assesses market developments and outlooks at the following aggregated levels: states, cities and communities, Indian tribes, and low-income residential efficiency. The analytical goals of the report are to: identify market drivers for EE and RE, paying attention to subsidies, taxes, targets and mandates, environmental policy, energy security, and economic development; assess efficacy of existing policies; discuss challenges and barriers; evaluate high-impact measures for overcoming challenges and barriers; and forecast future market trends.

Doris, E.; Taylor, R.

2009-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

294

Global Statistics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1996). Globalization in Question: International Economy andGlobalization; Justice; Poverty; Underground Economy; United

Crow, Ben D

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

295

Coupling a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model with Large-Eddy Simulation for Realistic Wind Plant Aerodynamics Simulations (Poster)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind plant aerodynamics are influenced by a combination of microscale and mesoscale phenomena. Incorporating mesoscale atmospheric forcing (e.g., diurnal cycles and frontal passages) into wind plant simulations can lead to a more accurate representation of microscale flows, aerodynamics, and wind turbine/plant performance. Our goal is to couple a numerical weather prediction model that can represent mesoscale flow [specifically the Weather Research and Forecasting model] with a microscale LES model (OpenFOAM) that can predict microscale turbulence and wake losses.

Draxl, C.; Churchfield, M.; Mirocha, J.; Lee, S.; Lundquist, J.; Michalakes, J.; Moriarty, P.; Purkayastha, A.; Sprague, M.; Vanderwende, B.

2014-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

Homes Weatherized by State March 2010 | Department of Energy  

Energy Savers [EERE]

March 2010 Homes Weatherized by State March 2010 Weatherization Assistance Program Homes Weatherized By State through 03312010 HomesWeatherizedbyStateQ12010.pdf More...

297

U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program Homes...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program Homes Weatherized By State through 06302010 (Calendar Year) U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program...

298

Forecasting Distributions with Experts Advice  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) is the probability forecast based on an arbitrary vector wE in the unit simplex, experts forecasts ?ąE , and model {p?} . Remark 2 In most cases, we can choose c = 1/?, implying in the result below that c? = 1. Example 3 The prediction function is a mixture... 0 = 1, and #IT (k) = tk+1 ? tk. Define ek ? E. Theorem 12 Under Conditions 1 and 7, R1,...,t (pW ) ? c? K? k=0 Rt(k),...,t(k+1)?1 ( p?(e(k)) ) + c ln (#E) ?c K? k=1 ln ut(k) (ek, ek?1)? c K? k=0 t(k+1)?2? s=t(k) ln (us+1 (ek, ek)) . 9 Remark 13...

Sancetta, Alessio

2006-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

299

Forecasting wind speed financial return  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

300

Forecasting of preprocessed daily solar radiation time series using neural networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting of preprocessed daily solar radiation time series using neural networks Christophe prediction of global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. First results are promising with nRMSE ~ 21 t or at day d and year y d H0 Extraterrestrial solar radiation coefficient for day d [MJ/m²] xt, xd,y Time

Boyer, Edmond

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While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
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301

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Office of InspectorConcentrating Solar Power Basics (TheEtelligence (SmartHome Kyoung's pictureFlintFlowerForecast

302

Weather-Corrected Performance Ratio  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Photovoltaic (PV) system performance depends on both the quality of the system and the weather. One simple way to communicate the system performance is to use the performance ratio (PR): the ratio of the electricity generated to the electricity that would have been generated if the plant consistently converted sunlight to electricity at the level expected from the DC nameplate rating. The annual system yield for flat-plate PV systems is estimated by the product of the annual insolation in the plane of the array, the nameplate rating of the system, and the PR, which provides an attractive way to estimate expected annual system yield. Unfortunately, the PR is, again, a function of both the PV system efficiency and the weather. If the PR is measured during the winter or during the summer, substantially different values may be obtained, making this metric insufficient to use as the basis for a performance guarantee when precise confidence intervals are required. This technical report defines a way to modify the PR calculation to neutralize biases that may be introduced by variations in the weather, while still reporting a PR that reflects the annual PR at that site given the project design and the project weather file. This resulting weather-corrected PR gives more consistent results throughout the year, enabling its use as a metric for performance guarantees while still retaining the familiarity this metric brings to the industry and the value of its use in predicting actual annual system yield. A testing protocol is also presented to illustrate the use of this new metric with the intent of providing a reference starting point for contractual content.

Dierauf, T.; Growitz, A.; Kurtz, S.; Cruz, J. L. B.; Riley, E.; Hansen, C.

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

Weathering the cold of `94. A review of the January 1994 energy supply disruptions in the Eastern United States  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report examines the causes of and responses to the very low temperatures over a wide region of the Eastern US causing unprecedented sustained demand for energy during the week of January 16--22, 1994. The topics of the report include the vagaries of the weather, the North American power supply structure, a chronology of major events of January, natural gas industry operations during peak demand periods, and recommendations for fuel supply, load forecasting, and energy emergency response exercises.

NONE

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

304

Satellite Application Facility for Numerical Weather Prediction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

into Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. However, the impact of such observations often critNWP SAF Satellite Application Facility for Numerical Weather Prediction Document NWPSAF-KN-VS-002 Stoffelen KNMI #12;NWP SAF Satellite Application Facility for Numerical Weather Prediction Report

Stoffelen, Ad

305

Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

City, June 24-27, 2007 and at the Bank of England Research Workshop on Dynamic Factor Models held at the Bank of England, 8-10 October 2007. We are grateful for comments by the discussants James Stock and Domenico Giannone as well as to Frank Diebold... and Weiner, PSW, (2004), and further developed in Dees, di Mauro, Pesaran and Smith, DdPS, (2007), for answering some of these questions. We do so recognising that macroeconomic policy analysis and risk management need to take into account the increasing...

Pesaran, M Hashem; Schuermann, Til; Smith, L Vanessa

306

Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Final report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of the project was to conduct model simulations for past and future climate change with respect to the proposed Yucca Mtn. repository. The authors report on three main topics, one of which is boundary conditions for paleo-hindcast studies. These conditions are necessary for the conduction of three to four model simulations. The boundary conditions have been prepared for future runs. The second topic is (a) comparing the atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with observations and other GCMs; and (b) development of a better precipitation data base for the Yucca Mtn. region for comparisons with models. These tasks have been completed. The third topic is preliminary assessments of future climate change. Energy balance model (EBM) simulations suggest that the greenhouse effect will likely dominate climate change at Yucca Mtn. for the next 10,000 years. The EBM study should improve rational choice of GCM CO{sub 2} scenarios for future climate change.

Crowley, T.J.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

1994-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

307

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Systems Division Stephen J. Lord Director, NWS NCEP Environmental Modeling Center 19 July 2010 (303) 4973060 tom.hamill@noaa.gov #12; 2 Executive Summary The accuracy of many

Hamill, Tom

308

20th Century Global Weather Reanalysis Project at NERSC  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary)morphinanInformation Desert SouthwestTechnologies |November 2011 Mon, Next2025 Power Marketing Initiative

309

Global Statistics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of Globalization: Statistics Weiss, L. (1997). "of Globalization: Statistics Milanovic, B. (1999). Truethe focus of global statistics, particularly in relation to

Crow, Ben D

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

310

Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

311

Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the single individual forecasts. Several studies have shown that combining forecasts can be a useful hedge against structural breaks, and forecast combinations are often more stable than single forecasts (e.g. Hendry and Clements, 2004, Stock and Watson, 2004... in expectations. Hence, we have the following. Corollary 4 Suppose maxt?T kl (Yt, hwt,Xti)kr ? A taking expectation on the left hand side, adding 2A ? T and setting ? = 0 in mT (?), i.e. TX t=1 E [lt (wt)? lt (ut...

Sancetta, Alessio

312

Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

313

Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

314

Solid low-level waste forecasting guide  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Guidance for forecasting solid low-level waste (LLW) on a site-wide basis is described in this document. Forecasting is defined as an approach for collecting information about future waste receipts. The forecasting approach discussed in this document is based solely on hanford`s experience within the last six years. Hanford`s forecasting technique is not a statistical forecast based upon past receipts. Due to waste generator mission changes, startup of new facilities, and waste generator uncertainties, statistical methods have proven to be inadequate for the site. It is recommended that an approach similar to Hanford`s annual forecasting strategy be implemented at each US Department of Energy (DOE) installation to ensure that forecast data are collected in a consistent manner across the DOE complex. Hanford`s forecasting strategy consists of a forecast cycle that can take 12 to 30 months to complete. The duration of the cycle depends on the number of LLW generators and staff experience; however, the duration has been reduced with each new cycle. Several uncertainties are associated with collecting data about future waste receipts. Volume, shipping schedule, and characterization data are often reported as estimates with some level of uncertainty. At Hanford, several methods have been implemented to capture the level of uncertainty. Collection of a maximum and minimum volume range has been implemented as well as questionnaires to assess the relative certainty in the requested data.

Templeton, K.J.; Dirks, L.L.

1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

The Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Wind Power Forecasting Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American...

316

200,000 homes weatherized under the Recovery Act  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Today Vice President Biden announced that the Weatherization Assistance Program has weatherized 200,000 homes under the Recovery Act.

317

Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations Audun Botterud://www.dis.anl.gov/projects/windpowerforecasting.html IAWind 2010 Ames, IA, April 6, 2010 #12;Outline Background Using wind power forecasts in market operations ­ Current status in U.S. markets ­ Handling uncertainties in system operations ­ Wind power

Kemner, Ken

318

U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast Spring ≠ Fall 2012 As of December 15, 2011 Prepared by AEC Preliminary & Advisory #12;U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 Overview ∑ Campus by campus ∑ Snapshot in time ≠ Not all projects ∑ Construction coordination efforts

Kamat, Vineet R.

319

NOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

conditions for up to 5 days in the future. These forecasts are run twice daily, and you can step through are generated every 6 hours and you can step backward in hourly increments to view conditions over the previousNOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future) and Nowcasts

320

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Ensemble forecast of analyses: Coupling data assimilation and sequential aggregation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ensemble forecast of analyses: Coupling data assimilation and sequential aggregation Vivien Mallet1. [1] Sequential aggregation is an ensemble forecasting approach that weights each ensemble member based on past observations and past forecasts. This approach has several limitations: The weights

Mallet, Vivien

322

Coordinating production quantities and demand forecasts through penalty schemes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Coordinating production quantities and demand forecasts through penalty schemes MURUVVET CELIKBAS1 departments which enable organizations to match demand forecasts with production quantities. This research problem where demand is uncertain and the marketing de- partment provides a forecast to manufacturing

Swaminathan, Jayashankar M.

323

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST Demand Forecast report is the product of the efforts of many current and former California Energy-2 Demand Forecast Disaggregation......................................................1-4 Statewide

324

HIERARCHY OF PRODUCTION DECISIONS Forecasts of future demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

HIERARCHY OF PRODUCTION DECISIONS Forecasts of future demand Aggregate plan Master production Planning and Forecast Bias · Forecast error seldom is normally distributed · There are few finite planning

Brock, David

325

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc in demand forecasting for new communication services. Acknowledgments: The writing of this paper commenced employers or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica- tions

Parsons, Simon

326

TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

has developed longterm forecasts of transportation energy demand as well as projected ranges of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts makeCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY

327

NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the Contributions andData and ResourcesOtherForecasting NREL researchers use solar and

328

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

329

Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo Oldenburg University have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius, 1981), when daily solar radiation forecasts

Heinemann, Detlev

330

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, Jo√£o Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind for more accurate short term wind power forecasting models has led to solid and impressive development

Kemner, Ken

331

Inverse Modelling to Forecast Enclosure Fire Dynamics†  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. This thesis proposes and studies a method to use measurements of the real event in order to steer and accelerate fire simulations. This technology aims at providing forecasts of the fire development with a positive lead time, i.e. the forecast of future events...

Jahn, Wolfram

332

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near-surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

333

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near­surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

334

Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

Genève, Université de

335

UHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

deficits. After solid 3% growth this year, real GDP growth will recede a bit for the next two years. New household spending. Real GDP will firm above 3% in 2015. · The pace of growth in China has continuedUHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014 Asia-Pacific Forecast: Press Version: Embargoed Until 2

336

-Assessment of current water conditions -Precipitation Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

#12;-Assessment of current water conditions - Precipitation Forecast - Recommendations for Drought of the mountains, so early demand for irrigation water should be minimal as we officially move into spring. Western, it is forecast to bring wet snow to the eastern slope of the Rockies, with less accumulations west of the divide

337

A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS Tara M. Sinclair , H.O. Stekler, and Warren Carnow Department of Economics The George Washington University Monroe Hall #340 2115 G Street NW Washington, DC 20052 JEL Codes, Mahalanobis Distance Abstract This paper presents a new approach to evaluating multiple economic forecasts

Vertes, Akos

338

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing and Economics at California State University, Fullerton, the largest accredited business school in California

de Lijser, Peter

339

Finding an Appropriate Profiler for the Weather Research and Forecasting Code  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, and David Villegas Undergraduate REU Students: Alex Orta, Michael McFail, Xabriel J. Collazo-Mojica, Javier Figueroa School of Computing and Information Sciences (SCIS) Florida International University (FIU) 11200

Sadjadi, S. Masoud

340

Use of Weather and Occupancy Forecasts for Optimal Building Climate Control  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

·Electric lighting ·Heating: radiators ·Cooling: slow ceiling ­ mechanical chiller ­ free cooling with wet of buildings; reducing peak electricity demand. Expected Results: ·Methods ·Software/tools ·Benefit Version 15. Jan. 2009 4 OptiControl ­ Research Partners · ETH Systems Ecology Group Modeling

Fischlin, Andreas

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

TechNoteswww.ll.mit.edu July 2014 Weather forecasts are critical to effectively  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

contains the radiometer installed at the top and the CubeSat bus whose solar panels open out once in orbit a host satellite, it will fly with its solar panels opened out like petals of a flower. These panels

Reif, Rafael

342

Generating day-of-operation probabilistic capacity scenarios from weather forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Airport, Boston Logan International Airport, Chicago OíHareairports: Boston Logan International Airport (BOS), ChicagoAirport (LAX), Boston Logan International Airport (BOS) and

Buxi, Gurkaran

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

343

An Overview of the 2010 Hazardous Weather Testbed Experimental Forecast Program Spring Experiment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

J. Melick1,9 , Christopher Siewert1,9 , Ryan A. Sobash3 , Patrick T. Marsh2,3 , Andrew R. Dean1. Bruce Entwistle7 , Tara L. Jensen8 , and James Correia, Jr.1,9 1 NOAA/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK 2 NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK 3 University of Oklahoma School

Xue, Ming

344

Probabilistic Forecasts of (Severe) Thunderstorms for the Purpose of Issuing a Weather Alarm in the Netherlands  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in the Netherlands MAURICE J. SCHMEITS, KEES J. KOK, DAAN H. P. VOGELEZANG, AND RUDOLF M. VAN WESTRHENEN Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands (Manuscript received 12 December 2007 for severe thunderstorms, based on high total lightning intensity, should be issued in the Netherlands

Schmeits, Maurice

345

PNNL-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico | Open  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home5b9fcbce19 No revision hasInformation Earth'sOklahoma/GeothermalOrange County is aOrmesa IOvonicPECO)Energy Information

346

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

347

Procedure for Packing Weather Files for DOE-2e  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

\\Programs\\Hourly_Missing_Filled_Calc.xlsx) for calculating the missing data. Weather Stations Names Alternative Stations for Gap Filling (1st Option) Alternative Stations for Gap Filling (2nd Option) ABI Abilene Regional Airport SJT San Angelo Mathis Field MA marillo International Airport LBB Lubbock....noaa.gov/CDO/cdo) Step 1. Click ?Country? Step 2. Select country and click ?Access Data Products? Step3. Select ?Surface Data, Hourly Global (Over 10,000 worldwide sites)?, and click ?Access Data Products? ESL-TR-10-09-03 Step4. Click ?I agree to these terms...

Kim, K. H.; Baltazar-Cervantes, J. C.

348

Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

freeze- up begins, the extra solar energy absorbed during summer in these vast new expanses of open water probability of extreme weather events that result from prolonged conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold circulation will be affected, but how? While global climate models project that the frequency and intensity

Francis, Jennifer

349

Five case studies of multifamily weatherization programs  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The multifamily case studies that are the subject of this report were conducted to provide a better understanding of the approach taken by program operators in weatherizing large buildings. Because of significant variations in building construction and energy systems across the country, five states were selected based on their high level of multifamily weatherization. This report summarizes findings from case studies conducted by multifamily weatherization operations in five cities. The case studies were conducted between January and November 1994. Each of the case studies involved extensive interviews with the staff of weatherization subgrantees conducting multifamily weatherization, the inspection of 4 to 12 buildings weatherized between 1991 and 1993, and the analysis of savings and costs. The case studies focused on innovative techniques which appear to work well.

Kinney, L; Wilson, T.; Lewis, G. [Synertech Systems Corp. (United States)] [Synertech Systems Corp. (United States); MacDonald, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)] [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

1997-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

350

Chelan County PUD- Residential Weatherization Rebate Program  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Chelan County PUD offers cash rebates to residential customers who make energy efficient weatherization improvements to eligible homes. Eligible measures include efficient windows doors as well as...

351

Training Program Graduates Weatherization-Ready Workers  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Graduates of Human Capital Development Corporation's (HCDC) First Choice Program aren't just trained in areas of construction, they also can tackle home weatherization services.

352

Connecticut Weatherization Project Improves Lives, Receives National...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Lives, Receives National Recognition May 6, 2014 - 12:24pm Addthis Donna Hawkins Technology Transfer Specialist, Weatherization Assistance Program Harris Walker Communications...

353

Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis for Numerical Weather Prediction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sep 2, 2011 ... Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis for Numerical Weather Prediction: Applications to Power Grid Optimization. Alexandru Cioaca(alexgc ***at*** vt.edu)

Alexandru Cioaca

2011-09-02T23:59:59.000Z

354

Idaho Falls Power- Residential Weatherization Loan Program  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Residential customers with permanently installed electric heat who receive service from the City of Idaho Falls, are eligible for 0% weatherization loans. City Energy Service will conduct an...

355

Aging and weathering of cool roofing membranes  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Aging and weathering can reduce the solar reflectance of cool roofing materials. This paper summarizes laboratory measurements of the solar spectral reflectance of unweathered, weathered, and cleaned samples collected from single-ply roofing membranes at various sites across the United States. Fifteen samples were examined in each of the following six conditions: unweathered; weathered; weathered and brushed; weathered, brushed and then rinsed with water; weathered, brushed, rinsed with water, and then washed with soap and water; and weathered, brushed, rinsed with water, washed with soap and water, and then washed with an algaecide. Another 25 samples from 25 roofs across the United States and Canada were measured in their unweathered state, weathered, and weathered and wiped. We document reduction in reflectivity resulted from various soiling mechanisms and provide data on the effectiveness of various cleaning approaches. Results indicate that although the majority of samples after being washed with detergent could be brought to within 90% of their unweathered reflectivity, in some instances an algaecide was required to restore this level of reflectivity.

Akbari, Hashem; Berhe, Asmeret A.; Levinson, Ronnen; Graveline,Stanley; Foley, Kevin; Delgado, Ana H.; Paroli, Ralph M.

2005-08-23T23:59:59.000Z

356

Weatherization Formula Grants - American Recovery and Reinvestment...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Act of 2009 waprecoveryactfoa.pdf More Documents & Publications Microsoft Word - nDE-FOA-0000051.rtf Weatherization Formula Grants - American Recovery and Reinvestment Act...

357

The Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College ...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

alone. Speakers Jeff Melville, Jack Wilson, John Manz, Kirk Gannett, Franzenia Smith, Duration 4:07 Topic Home Weatherization Education & Training Credit Energy Department...

358

RESIDENTIAL WEATHERIZATION SPECIFICATIONS August 30, 2011  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

RESIDENTIAL WEATHERIZATION SPECIFICATIONS August 30, 2011 Index to Sections Section Page I. GENERAL............................................................................................35 #12;1 I. GENERAL SPECIFICATIONS 1. These specifications apply to existing residential (retro

359

Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) Closeout Frequently Asked...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Program (WAP) Closeout Frequently Asked Questions Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) Closeout Frequently Asked Questions This document provides a list of frequently asked...

360

Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

2011-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Weatherization is a Winning Play for Wisconsin: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wisconsin demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

362

Weatherization Grows in the Green Mountain State (Vermont): Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Vermont demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

363

Weatherization Makes Headlines in Connecticut: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Connecticut demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

364

Frosty Conditions Catalyze Weatherization Solutions: Maine Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Maine demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

365

New York Signals Weatherization Savings: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

New York demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

366

Weatherization: Wyoming's Hidden Resource; Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wyoming demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

367

Massachusetts Fosters the Weatherization Spirit: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Massachusetts demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

368

Weatherization Expands Access to Energy Savings (New Hampshire): Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

New Hampshire demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

369

Weatherization: A Savvy Investment for Louisiana: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Louisiana demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

370

Weatherization Builds on Delaware's Innovative Past: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Delaware demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

371

Weatherization is a Hit in Michigan: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Michigan demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

372

The Spirit of North Dakota: Alive in Weatherization; Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

North Dakota demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

373

Weatherization Savings Peak in Alaska: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Alaska demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

374

Weatherization is a Sure Bet for Nevada: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Nevada demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

375

Weatherization in Arkansas: A Gem of a Program: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Arkansas demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

376

Weatherization: A Grand Program for Arizona: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Arizona demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

377

Weatherization Makes a Big Impact in Texas: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Texas demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

378

Weatherization Shines in California: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

California demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

379

Making Paradise More Affordable with Weatherization: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Hawaii demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

380

A Tribute to Weatherization Solutions in South Dakota: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

South Dakota demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Weatherization Rises to the Top in Kansas: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Kansas demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

382

Weatherization Radiates Energy Savings in Florida: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Florida demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

383

Weatherization Spans the Efficiency Spectrum in Illinois: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Illinois demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

384

Taking Weatherization to New Heights in Colorado: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Colorado demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

385

Weatherization: A Gateway to Energy Efficiency; Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Missouri demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

386

Weatherization Savings Takes Root in New Mexico: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

New Mexico demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

387

The Garden State Flourishes with Weatherization (New Jersey): Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

New Jersey demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

388

Weatherization is a Natural Choice for Montana: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Montana demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

389

Weatherization Keeps Washington Green: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Washington demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

390

Weatherization Creates Spectacular Savings in Utah: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Utah demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

391

Weatherization Sails on Maryland's Legacy of Innovation: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Maryland demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

392

Weatherization Plays a Starring Role in Mississippi: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Mississippi demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

D& R International

2001-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

393

MSSM Forecast for the LHC  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of $M_Z$ is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on $e^+e^-$ data) is considered, the preferred region (for $\\mu>0$) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-$\\mu$ possibilities.

Maria Eugenia Cabrera; Alberto Casas; Roberto Ruiz de Austri

2010-12-10T23:59:59.000Z

394

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

AFFILIATIONS: HULTQUIST--NOAA/National Weather Service, Marquette, Michigan; DUTTER--NOAA/National Weather Service,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with modern numerical weather prediction models to provide detailed hindcasts of conditions throughoutAFFILIATIONS: HULTQUIST--NOAA/National Weather Service, Marquette, Michigan; DUTTER--NOAA/National Weather Service, Cleveland, Ohio; SCHWAB--NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor

396

Testing Linear Diagnostics of Ensemble Performance on a Simplified Global Circulation Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is inherently flow dependent and that the ensemble predicts potential patterns of forecast errors more reliably than the magnitudes of the errors. A low-resolution global circulation model is implemented to calculate linear diagnostics in the vector space...

Nelson, Ethan

2011-04-21T23:59:59.000Z

397

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

398

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng American University Washington, D of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast available to analysts at the time they make their forecasts. Hence, it alleviates some of the limitations

Kim, Kiho

399

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT OF USING FORECASTS Mohamed Zied Ch^atenay-Malabry Cedex, France Abstract: In this paper, we analyze forecast based inventory control policies for a non-stationary demand. We assume that forecasts and the associated uncertainties are given

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

400

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill? Greg Roff,1 forecast skill at high Southern latitudes is explored. Ensemble forecasts are made for two model configurations that differ only in vertical resolution above 100 hPa. An ensemble of twelve 30day forecasts

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

402

Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural demand time series based only on data for six years to forecast the demand for the seventh year. Both networks, Neural networks, Modeling, Forecasting, Energy demand, Time series forecasting, Power system

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

403

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA or adequacy of the information in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid provided the projections

404

Strategic safety stocks in supply chains with evolving forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

we have an evolving demand forecast. Under assumptions about the forecasts, the demand process their supply chain operations based on a forecast of future demand over some planning horizon. Furthermore stock inventory in a supply chain that is subject to a dynamic, evolving demand forecast. In particular

Graves, Stephen C.

405

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF DRAFT FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF DRAFT FORECAST Energy Demand 2008-2018 forecast supports the analysis and recommendations of the 2007 Integrated Energy Commission demand forecast models. Both the staff draft energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly

406

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

407

EFIT EMPLOYEES MANAGE GLOBALLY | MAXIMIZE CONTROL | DRIVE SAVINGS | BENEFIT EMPLOYEES| | MANAGE GLOBALLY | MAXIMIZE CONTROL | DRIVE SAVINGS | BENEFIT EMPLOYEES | MANAGE GLOBALLY | REAL BUSINESS. REAL SOLUTIONS.SM CORPORATE SERVICES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Referral Travel Assistance ¬∑ Passport/Visa Information, Customs Information, Weather Reports, Emergency, at no additional charge, simply by calling a toll free number. The Global Assist Hotline program's coordination SOLUTIONS.SM CORPORATE SERVICES EXPENSE MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS Global Assist¬ģ Hotline When business travel

Huang, Jianyu

408

SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) ABSTRACT This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the SolarAnywhere platform. The models include satellite derived cloud motion based forecasts for the short to medium horizon (1 5 hours) and forecasts derived from NOAA

Perez, Richard R.

409

HISTORY OF WEATHER OBSERVATIONS MOUNT AUBURN, OHIO  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

HISTORY OF WEATHER OBSERVATIONS MOUNT AUBURN, OHIO 1861 - 1881 October 2004 Prepared By Glen Conner Center under the auspices of the Climate Database Modernization Program, NOAA's National Climatic Data;1 HISTORY OF WEATHER OBSERVATIONS MOUNT AUBURN, OHIO 1861-1881 Glen Conner Kentucky State Climatologist

Maynard, J. Barry

410

GPU Acceleration of Numerical Weather John Michalakes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

GPU Acceleration of Numerical Weather Prediction John Michalakes National Center for Atmospheric parallelism will prove ineffective for many scenarios. We present an alternative method of scaling model Exponentially increasing processor power has fueled fifty years of continuous improvement in weather and climate

Colorado at Boulder, University of

411

DREAM tool increases space weather predictions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- 1 - DREAM tool increases space weather predictions April 13, 2012 Predicting space weather improved by new DREAM modeling tool Earth's radiation belts can now be studied with a new modeling tool DREAM comes into play. Radiation belt structure and dynamics revealed DREAM is a modeling tool

412

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

413

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction ................................................................................................................... 17 INTRODUCTION Since the millennium, the trend for fuel prices has been one of uncertainty prices, which have traditionally been relatively stable, increased by about 50 percent in 2008. Fuel

414

STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

415

Essays in International Macroeconomics and Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This dissertation contains three essays in international macroeconomics and financial time series forecasting. In the first essay, I show, numerically, that a two-country New-Keynesian Sticky Prices model, driven by monetary and productivity shocks...

Bejarano Rojas, Jesus Antonio

2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

416

Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Program First Steps Toward Tribal Weatherization Ė Human Capacity Development  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Project expanded weatherization services for tribal membersí homes in southeast Alaska while providing weatherization training and on the job training (OJT) for tribal citizens that lead to jobs and most probably careers in weatherization-related occupations. The program resulted in; (a) 80 Alaska Native citizens provided with skills training in five weatherization training units that were delivered in cooperation with University of Alaska Southeast, in accordance with the U.S. Department of Energy Core Competencies for Weatherization Training that prepared participants for employment in three weatherizationrelated occupations: Installer, Crew Chief, and Auditor; (b) 25 paid OJT training opportunities for trainees who successfully completed the training course; and (c) employed trained personnel that have begun to rehab on over 1,000 housing units for weatherization.

Wiita, Joanne

2013-07-30T23:59:59.000Z

417

Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

Brainard, James Robert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

418

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast Summary............................................................................................................ 2 Sixth Power Plan Demand Forecast................................................................................................ 4 Demand Forecast Range

419

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast Energy Demand................................................................................................................................. 1 Demand Forecast Methodology.................................................................................................. 3 New Demand Forecasting Model for the Sixth Plan

420

Test Procedure for UV Weathering Resistance of Backsheet | Department...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Test Procedure for UV Weathering Resistance of Backsheet Test Procedure for UV Weathering Resistance of Backsheet Presented at the PV Module Reliability Workshop, February 26 - 27...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 10-10: REPROGRAMMING TRAINING AND...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 10-10: REPROGRAMMING TRAINING AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE FUNDS TO PROGRAM OPERATIONS WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 10-10: REPROGRAMMING TRAINING AND...

422

CLOSEOUT PROCEDURES FOR RECOVERY ACT GRANTS UNDER THE WEATHERIZATION...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

CLOSEOUT PROCEDURES FOR RECOVERY ACT GRANTS UNDER THE WEATHERIZATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM CLOSEOUT PROCEDURES FOR RECOVERY ACT GRANTS UNDER THE WEATHERIZATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM This...

423

Princeton and PPPL launch center to study volatile space weather...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

that constantly stream from the sun - and gives rise to space weather that can disrupt cell phone service, damage satellites and knock out power grids. Such stormy weather...

424

Illinois and Texas Towns See Weatherization Boost | Department...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

and Texas Towns See Weatherization Boost Illinois and Texas Towns See Weatherization Boost March 19, 2010 - 11:47am Addthis Stephen Graff Former Writer & editor for Energy...

425

arctic weather conditions: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

condition for a particular vessel. Keywords Weather Routing, Degraded Condition, Crisis Manage- ment Advice, Shortest Path Berlin,Technische Universitt 18 Weather...

426

Guidance on Utility Rate Estimations and Weather Normalization...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

and Weather Normalization in an ESPC Document explains how to use estimated energy rates and normalized weather data in determining an energy service company's (ESCO's)...

427

Appendix K - GPRA06 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Appendix K - GPRA06 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) Documentation Appendix K - GPRA06 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) Documentation State...

428

Presentation at the Weatherization Program Deep Dive Briefing...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

4, 2009 U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Weatherization Assistance Program presentation at Weatherization Deep Dive...

429

DOE Announces $29 Million in Recovery Act Awards for Weatherization...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

expand weatherization training centers across the country. These projects will provide green job training for local workers in energy efficiency retrofitting and weatherization...

430

U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

homes weatherized with Recovery Act funding. The monthly data is preliminary and subject to change. ***Annual Program Year funding includes units weatherized through June 2010 only...

431

Revised Davis-Bacon Wage Determinations for the Weatherization...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Revised Davis-Bacon Wage Determinations for the Weatherization Assistance Program Revised Davis-Bacon Wage Determinations for the Weatherization Assistance Program U.S. Department...

432

U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

report has not been submitted by state All data reported as of 101310 ***Annual Program Year funding includes units weatherized through June 2010 only. **Homes Weatherized...

433

Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

434

A first large-scale flood inundation forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

At present continental to global scale flood forecasting focusses on predicting at a point discharge, with little attention to the detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation is actually the variable of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a first large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas and at continental scales. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River in southeast Africa to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. The inundation model domain has a surface area of approximately 170k km2. ECMWF meteorological data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) macro-scale hydrological model which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of the 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of many river channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst at the same time representing the floodplain at an appropriate and efficient scale. The modeling system was first calibrated using water levels on the main channel from the ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimeter and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of about 1 km (one model resolution) compared to an observed flood edge of the event. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km2. However, initial model test runs in forecast mode revealed that it is crucial to account for basin-wide hydrological response time when assessing lead time performances notwithstanding structural limitations in the hydrological model and possibly large inaccuracies in precipitation data.

Schumann, Guy J-P; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Voisin, Nathalie; Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Pappenberger, Florian; Phanthuwongpakdee, Kay; Hall, Amanda C.; Bates, Paul D.

2013-11-04T23:59:59.000Z

435

Integration of space weather into space situational awareness  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Rapid assessment of space weather effects on satellites is a critical step in anomaly resolution and satellite threat assessment. That step, however, is often hindered by a number of factors including timely collection and delivery of space weather data and the inherent com plexity of space weather information. As part of a larger, integrated space situational awareness program, Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed prototype operational space weather tools that run in real time and present operators with customized, user-specific information. The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) focuses on the penetrating radiation environment from natural or nuclear-produced radiation belts. The penetrating radiation environment is highly dynamic and highly orbit-dependent. Operators often must rely only on line plots of 2 MeV electron flux from the NOAA geosynchronous GOES satellites which is then assumed to be representative of the environment at the satellite of interest. DREAM uses data assimilation to produce a global, real-time, energy dependent specification. User tools are built around a distributed service oriented architecture (SOA) which will allow operators to select any satellite from the space catalog and examine the environment for that specific satellite and time of interest. Depending on the application operators may need to examine instantaneous dose rates and/or dose accumulated over various lengths of time. Further, different energy thresholds can be selected depending on the shielding on the satellite or instrument of interest. In order to rapidly assess the probability that space weather was the cause of anomalous operations, the current conditions can be compared against the historical distribution of radiation levels for that orbit. In the simplest operation a user would select a satellite and time of interest and immediately see if the environmental conditions were typical, elevated, or extreme based on how often those conditions occur in that orbit. This allows users to rapidly rule in or out environmental causes of anomalies. The same user interface can also allow users to drill down for more detailed quantitative information. DREAM can be run either from a distributed web-based user interface or as a stand-alone application for secure operations. In this paper we discuss the underlying structure of the DREAM model and demonstrate the user interface that we have developed . We also present some prototype data products and user interfaces for DREAM and discuss how space environment information can be seamlessly integrated into operational SSA systems.

Reeves, Geoffrey D [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2010-11-09T23:59:59.000Z

436

State Home Oil Weatherization (SHOW) Program  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Oregon homeowners and renters who heat with oil, wood, propane, kerosene, or butane are eligible for home weatherization rebates of up to $500. A variety of measures, including insulation, HVAC,...

437

The Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A look into some of the remarkable work being done in the Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College. Penn College's program has served as the model for six other training centers in Pennsylvania alone.

Meville, Jeff; Wilson, Jack; Manz, John; Gannett, Kirk; Smith, Franzennia

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

438

Carbon Monoxide Poisoning Avoided Through Weatherization | Department...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

systems in recipients' homes. "We had a chain -- one right after another," says Debbie Biggs, weatherization director for C-SCDC. "One had carbon monoxide levels so high we told...

439

Cowlitz County PUD- Residential Weatherization Plus Program  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Cowlitz County PUD offers an incentive to residential customers who weatherize their homes. Eligible residences can be either site-built or manufactured homes, but must have a permanently installed...

440

Clark Public Utilities- Residential Weatherization Loan Program  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Loans of up to $15,000 at a 5.25% interest are available through Clark Public Utilities' Weatherization Loan Program. The loans can pay for the average local cost of eligible measures, based on...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

The Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College  

ScienceCinema (OSTI)

A look into some of the remarkable work being done in the Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College. Penn College's program has served as the model for six other training centers in Pennsylvania alone.

Meville, Jeff; Wilson, Jack; Manz, John; Gannett, Kirk; Smith, Franzennia;

2013-05-29T23:59:59.000Z

442

Arizona Foundation Expands Weatherization Training Center | Department...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

upgrades for low-income residents, but in Maricopa County and the Phoenix area it also trains a good part of the weatherization workforce to do that. Expanding building science...

443

Human-Centered Systems Analysis of Aircraft Separation from Adverse Weather  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Adverse weather significantly impacts the safety and efficiency of flight operations. Weather information

Vigeant-Langlois, Laurence

444

ON THE IMPACT OF SUPER RESOLUTION WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Assimilation of radar velocity and precipitation fields into high-resolution model simulations can improve precipitation forecasts with decreased 'spin-up' time and improve short-term simulation of boundary layer winds (Benjamin, 2004 & 2007; Xiao, 2008) which is critical to improving plume transport forecasts. Accurate description of wind and turbulence fields is essential to useful atmospheric transport and dispersion results, and any improvement in the accuracy of these fields will make consequence assessment more valuable during both routine operation as well as potential emergency situations. During 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) radars implemented a significant upgrade which increased the real-time level II data resolution to 8 times their previous 'legacy' resolution, from 1 km range gate and 1.0 degree azimuthal resolution to 'super resolution' 250 m range gate and 0.5 degree azimuthal resolution (Fig 1). These radar observations provide reflectivity, velocity and returned power spectra measurements at a range of up to 300 km (460 km for reflectivity) at a frequency of 4-5 minutes and yield up to 13.5 million point observations per level in super-resolution mode. The migration of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D radars to super resolution is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current operational mesoscale model domains utilize grid spacing several times larger than the legacy data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of super resolution reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution is investigated here to determine the impact of the improved data resolution on model predictions.

Chiswell, S

2009-01-11T23:59:59.000Z

445

Autoregressive Time Series Forecasting of Computational Demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We study the predictive power of autoregressive moving average models when forecasting demand in two shared computational networks, PlanetLab and Tycoon. Demand in these networks is very volatile, and predictive techniques to plan usage in advance can improve the performance obtained drastically. Our key finding is that a random walk predictor performs best for one-step-ahead forecasts, whereas ARIMA(1,1,0) and adaptive exponential smoothing models perform better for two and three-step-ahead forecasts. A Monte Carlo bootstrap test is proposed to evaluate the continuous prediction performance of different models with arbitrary confidence and statistical significance levels. Although the prediction results differ between the Tycoon and PlanetLab networks, we observe very similar overall statistical properties, such as volatility dynamics.

Sandholm, Thomas

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

446

Global warming, insurance losses and financial industry  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Global warming causes extremely bad weather in the near term. They have already caught the attention of the insurance industry, as they suffered massive losses in the last decade. Twenty-one out of the 25 largest catastrophes in the US, mainly in the form of hurricanes have occurred in the last decade. The insurance industry has reacted by taking the risk of global warming in decisions as to pricing and underwriting decisions. But they have yet to take a more active role in regulating the factors that contributes to global warming. How global warming can impact the financial industry and the modern economy is explored. Insurance and modern financial derivatives are key to the efficient functioning of the modern economy, without which the global economy can still function but will take a giant step backward. Any risk as global warming that causes economic surprises will hamper the efficient working of the financial market and the modern economy.

Low, N.C. [UOB Life Assurance Limited, Singapore (Singapore)

1996-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

447

Faces of the Recovery Act: National Weatherization Conference  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Personal stories from the 2009 National Weatherization Training Conference in Indianapolis, Indiana.

448

Faces of the Recovery Act: National Weatherization Conference  

ScienceCinema (OSTI)

Personal stories from the 2009 National Weatherization Training Conference in Indianapolis, Indiana.

Chu, Sammy; Campanella, Leslie; Sewell, Travis; Gill, Tony; Fransen, Richard; Leuty, Steve; Qualls, Xavier; Bergeron, T.J.; Stewet, Zachary

2013-05-29T23:59:59.000Z

449

Weatherization Plus ó Opportunities for the 21st Century  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Millennium Committee Strategy Report for the DOE Weatherization Assistance Program; 15 pp.; April 1999.

450

Faces of the Recovery Act: National Weatherization Conference  

ScienceCinema (OSTI)

Personal stories from the 2009 National Weatherization Training Conference in Indianapolis, Indiana.

None

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

Do Investors Forecast Fat Firms? Evidence from the Gold Mining Industry  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Economistsí Gold Price Forecasts,Ē Australian Journal ofDo Investors Forecast Fat Firms? Evidence from the Gold

Borenstein, Severin; Farrell, Joseph

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

Global Ensemble Predictions of 2009's Tropical Cyclones Initialized with an Ensemble Kalman Filter  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

). In part, this can be attributed to the general improvements in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models summer tropical cyclones (TCs) from two experimental global numerical weather prediction ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). The first model was a highresolution version (T382L64) of the National Centers

Hamill, Tom

453

Global Ensemble Predictions of 2009's Tropical Cyclones Initialized with an Ensemble Kalman Filter  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to the general improvements in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, such as increased resolution, improved) from two experimental global numerical weather prediction ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). The first model was a high-resolution version (T382L64) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP

Hamill, Tom

454

Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy: Advances in Supply Chain Management  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic ...

Datta, Shoumen

2008-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

455

Market perceptions of efficiency and news in analyst forecast errors  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Financial analysts are considered inefficient when they do not fully incorporate relevant information into their forecasts. In this dissertation, I investigate differences in the observable efficiency of analysts' earnings forecasts between firms...

Chevis, Gia Marie

2004-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

456

The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

Runyan, Bruce Wayne

2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

457

www.biosciencemag.org October 2012 / Vol. 62 No. 10 BioScience 911 Global Bioenergy Capacity as  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the maximum PBP to realistically range from 12% to 35% of 2009 global primary energy consumption, with yield% of the 2009 global primary energy consumption (GPEC09; Haberl et al. 2010, USEIA 2011). Reducing the range W. Running Virtually all global energy forecasts include an expectation that bioenergy

Montana, University of

458

Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

459

Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

2010-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

460

Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global weather forecast" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

0 20 4010 Miles NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

0 20 4010 Miles NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Texas Forecast Region Maps to Sargent BCH NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Texas Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102 Bloom Operational Forecast System Texas Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles West Bay #12;Aransas Bay

462

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

463

TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make assumptions about fuel price forecastsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY ENERGY COMMISSION Gordon Schremp, Jim Page, and Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Principal Authors Jim Page Project

464

Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles 1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles 1 Adrian E. Raftery, Fadoua forecasting often exhibit a spread-skill relationship, but they tend to be underdispersive. This paper of PDFs centered around the individual (possibly bias-corrected) forecasts, where the weights are equal

Washington at Seattle, University of

465

Forecast Combinations of Computational Intelligence and Linear Models for the  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Combinations of Computational Intelligence and Linear Models for the NN5 Time Series Forecasting competition Robert R. Andrawis Dept Computer Engineering Cairo University, Giza, Egypt robertrezk@eg.ibm.com November 6, 2010 Abstract In this work we introduce a forecasting model with which we participated

Atiya, Amir

466

Compatibility of Stand Basal Area Predictions Based on Forecast Combination  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Compatibility of Stand Basal Area Predictions Based on Forecast Combination Xiongqing Zhang Carr.) in Beijing, forecast combination was used to adjust predicted stand basal areas from these three types of models. The forecast combination method combines information and disperses errors from

Cao, Quang V.

467

WP1: Targeted and informative forecast system design  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

WP1: Targeted and informative forecast system design Emma Suckling, Leonard A. Smith and David Stainforth EQUIP Meeting ­ August 2011 Edinburgh #12;Targeted and informative forecast system design Develop models to support decision making (1.4) #12;Targeted and informative forecast system design KEY QUESTIONS

Stevenson, Paul

468

Earnings forecast bias -a statistical analysis Franois Dossou  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Earnings forecast bias - a statistical analysis François Dossou Sandrine Lardic** Karine Michalon' earnings forecasts is an important aspect of research for different reasons: Many empirical studies employ analysts' consensus forecasts as a proxy for the market's expectations of future earnings in order

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

469

Using Large Datasets to Forecast Sectoral Employment Rangan Gupta*  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using Large Datasets to Forecast Sectoral Employment Rangan Gupta* Department of Economics Bayesian and classical methods to forecast employment for eight sectors of the US economy. In addition-sample period and January 1990 to March 2009 as the out-of- sample horizon, we compare the forecast performance

Ahmad, Sajjad

470

Power load forecasting Organization: Huizhou Electric Power, P. R. China  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Power load forecasting Organization: Huizhou Electric Power, P. R. China Presenter: Zhifeng Hao can be divided into load forecasting and electrical consumption predicting according to forecasting in generators macroeconomic control, power exchange plan and so on. And the prediction is from one day to seven

471

Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1 1 Great Lakes forecasts in operational hydrology builds a sample of possibilities for the future, of climate series from-parametric method can be extended into a new weighted parametric hydrological forecasting technique to allow

472

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

Povinelli, Richard J.

473

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand, and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption

474

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff in the Demand Analysis. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data

475

Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Draft for Public Comment A-1 Appendix A. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation had a tradition of acknowledging the uncertainty of any forecast of electricity demand and developing

476

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc to redress this situation by presenting a discussion of the issues involved in demand forecasting for new or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica­ tions Services. 1 #12

McBurney, Peter

477

Using Belief Functions to Forecast Demand for Mobile Satellite Services  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using Belief Functions to Forecast Demand for Mobile Satellite Services Peter McBurney and Simon.j.mcburney,s.d.parsonsg@elec.qmw.ac.uk Abstract. This paper outlines an application of belief functions to forecasting the demand for a new service in a new category, based on new technology. Forecasting demand for a new product or service

McBurney, Peter

478

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Dean, Mihaylo College of Business and Economics Mira Farka, Ph.D. -- Co-Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Associate Professor

de Lijser, Peter

479

FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of, a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions forecasts is 0.05o in latitude and longitude. Solar Radiation model: The model presented in this paper

Perez, Richard R.

480

Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

capital requirements and research and development programs in the alum inum industry. : CONCLUSIONS Forecasting the use of conservation techndlo gies with a market penetration model provides la more accountable method of projecting aggrega...

Lang, K.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

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481

Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

NONE

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

482

Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

2015-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

483

Do quantitative decadal forecasts from GCMs provide  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

' · Empirical models quantify our ability to predict without knowing the laws of physics · Climatology skill' model? 2. Dynamic climatology (DC) is a more appropriate benchmark for near- term (initialised) climate forecasts · A conditional climatology, initialised at launch and built from the historical archive

Stevenson, Paul

484

Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

NONE

1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS MARINE SERVICE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS MARINE SERVICE IMPROVEMENTS FOR QUEENSLAND across Australia. FURTHER INFORMATION: www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS © Commonwealth of Australia, 2013 From © Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Australia Coastal Waters Zones

Greenslade, Diana

486

Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tun√ł Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg M√łller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

487

Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns María J. Olascoagaa,1 and George of Mexico in 2010. We present a methodology to predict major short-term changes in en- vironmental River's mouth in the Gulf of Mexico. The resulting fire could not be extinguished and the drilling rig

Olascoaga, Maria Josefina

488

Facebook IPO updated valuation and user forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Facebook IPO ≠ updated valuation and user forecasting Based on: Amendment No. 6 to Form S-1 (May 9. Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette, Quis pendit ipsa pretia: facebook valuation and diagnostic Extreme Growth JPMPaper Cauwels and Sornette 840 1110 1820 S1- filing- May 9 2012 1006 1105 1371 Facebook

489

FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

#12;FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016 (Issue No. 22) #12;Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff the team of professionals. Second half 2015 VACANCY GRADE REQUIREMENTS / ROLE EXPECTED DATE OF VACANCY

490

Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price as traded on the wholesale, short-term (spot) market at the Mid-Columbia trading hub. This price represents noted. BASE CASE FORECAST The base case wholesale electricity price forecast uses the Council's medium

491

Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

492

Global Predictions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

demographics, socioeconomic factors and public health information. GIS technology is a computerized system that can capture, store, process and analyze spatial data. The lab uses GIS to produce the Texas Spatial Information System Web site. The Web site... to forecast change tx H2O | pg. 22 tx H2O | pg. 23 KBDI represents dryness and wetness in Texas counties on a scale of 0 (no moisture depletion) to 800 (absolutely dry conditions) and are used to estimate forest fire potential. A county with an index...

Swyden, Courtney

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

Healthy Housing Opportunities During Weatherization Work  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In the summer and early fall of 2010, the National Center for Healthy Housing interviewed people from a selection of state and local agencies that perform weatherizations on low-income housing in order to gauge their approach to improving the health and safety of the homes. The interviews provided a strong cross section of what work agencies can do, and how they go about funding this work when funds from the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) do not cover the full extent of the repairs. The report also makes recommendations for WAP in how to assist agencies to streamline and maximize the health and safety repairs they are able to make in the course of a standard weatherization.

Wilson, J.; Tohn, E.

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

Weather - Local Information - Radiation Effects Facility / Cyclotron  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear SecurityTensile Strain Switched FerromagnetismWaste and Materials Disposition3 WaterFebruary 18,theWeather Weather

495

Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The operators of electrical grids, sometimes referred to as Balancing Authorities (BA), typically make critical decisions on how to most reliably and economically balance electrical load and generation in time frames ranging from a few minutes to six hours ahead. At higher levels of wind power generation, there is an increasing need to improve the accuracy of 0- to 6-hour ahead wind power forecasts. Forecasts on this time scale have typically been strongly dependent on short-term trends indicated by the time series of power production and meteorological data from a wind farm. Additional input information is often available from the output of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and occasionally from off-site meteorological towers in the region surrounding the wind generation facility. A widely proposed approach to improve short-term forecasts is the deployment of off-site meteorological towers at locations upstream from the wind generation facility in order to sense approaching wind perturbations. While conceptually appealing, it turns out that, in practice, it is often very difficult to derive significant benefit in forecast performance from this approach. The difficulty is rooted in the fact that the type, scale, and amplitude of the processes controlling wind variability at a site change from day to day if not from hour to hour. Thus, a location that provides some useful forecast information for one time may not be a useful predictor a few hours later. Indeed, some processes that cause significant changes in wind power production operate predominantly in the vertical direction and thus cannot be monitored by employing a network of sensors at off-site locations. Hence, it is very challenging to determine the type of sensors and deployment locations to get the most benefit for a specific short-term forecast application. Two tools recently developed in the meteorological research community have the potential to help determine the locations and parameters to measure in order to get the maximum positive impact on forecast performance for a particular site and short-term look-ahead period. Both tools rely on the use of NWP models to assess the sensitivity of a forecast for a particular location to measurements made at a prior time (i.e. the look-ahead period) at points surrounding the target location. The fundamental hypothesis is that points and variables with high sensitivity are good candidates for measurements since information at those points are likely to have the most impact on the forecast for the desired parameter, location and look-ahead period. One approach is called the adjoint method (Errico and Vukicevic, 1992; Errico, 1997) and the other newer approach is known as Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA; Ancell and Hakim 2007; Torn and Hakim 2008). Both approaches have been tested on large-scale atmospheric prediction problems (e.g. forecasting pressure or precipitation over a relatively large region 24 hours ahead) but neither has been applied to mesoscale space-time scales of winds or any other variables near the surface of the earth. A number of factors suggest that ESA is better suited for short-term wind forecasting applications. One of the most significant advantages of this approach is that it is not necessary to linearize the mathematical representation of the processes in the underlying atmospheric model as required by the adjoint approach. Such a linearization may be especially problematic for the application of short-term forecasting of boundary layer winds in complex terrain since non-linear shifts in the structure of boundary layer due to atmospheric stability changes are a critical part of the wind power production forecast problem. The specific objective of work described in this paper is to test the ESA as a tool to identify measurement locations and variables that have the greatest positive impact on the accuracy of wind forecasts in the 0- to 6-hour look-ahead periods for the wind generation area of California's Tehachapi Pass during the warm (high generation) season. The paper is organized

Zack, J; Natenberg, E; Young, S; Manobianco, J; Kamath, C

2010-02-21T23:59:59.000Z

496

Test application of a semi-objective approach to wind forecasting for wind energy applications  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The test application of the semi-objective (S-O) wind forecasting technique at three locations is described. The forecasting sites are described as well as site-specific forecasting procedures. Verification of the S-O wind forecasts is presented, and the observed verification results are interpreted. Comparisons are made between S-O wind forecasting accuracy and that of two previous forecasting efforts that used subjective wind forecasts and model output statistics. (LEW)

Wegley, H.L.; Formica, W.J.

1983-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

497

Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-Aal Department of Computer Engineering, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia Address for corresponding author: Dr. R. E. Abdel-Aal P. O. Box 1759 KFUPM Dhahran 31261 Saudi Arabia e, These techniques have limited accuracy because they ignore important weather effects, are time consuming, require

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

498

Improving Electric Load Forecasts Using Network Committees  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia Address for corresponding author: Dr. R. E. Abdel-Aal P. O. Box 1759 KFUPM Dhahran 31261 Saudi Arabia e-mail: radwan load and weather data at power utilities has encouraged the use of data-based machine learning modeling

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

499

Unified Surface Analysis Manual Weather Prediction Center  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-bone in stage IV. The stages in the respective cyclone evolutions are separated by approximately 6≠ 24 h's) National Weather Service (NWS) were generally based on the Norwegian Cyclone Model (Bjerknes 1919) over below shows a typical evolution according to both models of cyclone development. Conceptual models

500

Friday December 28, 2012 | Houston Weather  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Friday December 28, 2012 | Houston Weather Chron.com Web Search by YAHOO! Local Directory Sci, December 26, 2012 11 for '13: Bhaskar Dutta and David Toback believe we will soon identify "dark" matter and that we ignorantly refer to as dark matter. One of the reasons we believe this substance exists

Toback, David