National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for global insight forecast

  1. Global Insight Energy Group

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Outlook Mary Novak Managing Director IHS Global Insight Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight, Inc. Overview: Energy Sector Transformation Underway * The recession has hit energy demand hard, and aggregate energy demand is not expected to return to 2007 levels until 2018. * Oil and natural gas prices will both rise over the long-term, but the price trends will diverge with natural gas prices rising slowly due to the development of shale gas. * This forecast does not include a GHG cap-and-trade

  2. Sandia National Laboratories: Global Insight, Inc. / Department of Labor

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Facebook Twitter YouTube Flickr RSS Working with Sandia Global Insight, Inc. / Department of Labor Global Insight, Inc. (GII), was created by combining DRI (formerly Data Resources, Inc.) and WEFA (formerly Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates). Due to copyright/distribution laws being derived from a proprietary service that Sandia pays for, Sandia can no longer provide GII factor information at this website. However, Sandia will continue to supply the DOL and the "combined key

  3. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  4. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  5. Sandia National Laboratories: Global Insight, Inc. / Department...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    combining DRI (formerly Data Resources, Inc.) and WEFA (formerly Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates). Due to copyrightdistribution laws being derived from a proprietary...

  6. Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-03-23

    Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

  7. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  8. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  9. Intern Shares Insight Into Researchers' Minds |GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    (Opens in new window) The Quality of GE Researchers...and Why That's So Important Daniel Cadel 2014.08.14 GE Global Research asked some of our interns to share why they wanted...

  10. Malaria and global change: Insights, uncertainties and possible surprises

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martin, P.H.; Steel, A.

    1996-12-31

    Malaria may change with global change. Indeed, global change may affect malaria risk and malaria epidemiology. Malaria risk may change in response to a greenhouse warming; malaria epidemiology, in response to the social, economic, and political developments which a greenhouse warming may trigger. To date, malaria receptivity and epidemiology futures have been explored within the context of equilibrium studies. Equilibrium studies of climate change postulate an equilibrium present climate (the starting point) and a doubled-carbon dioxide climate (the end point), simulate conditions in both instances, and compare the two. What happens while climate changes, i.e., between the starting point and the end point, is ignored. The present paper focuses on malaria receptivity and addresses what equilibrium studies miss, namely transient malaria dynamics.

  11. Using Wikipedia to forecast disease

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. December 22, 2014 Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505) 667-0471 Email "A global disease-forecasting system will improve

  12. INSIGHT On Transforming Our Global Energy Economy, 2015 Annual Report (Brochure)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2015-03-01

    From its inception, JISEA has provided critical clarity and insights to inform decision making through leading-edge interdisciplinary research and objective, credible, cross-functional analysis. JISEA, drawing on the unique capabilities of its founding institutions and research affiliates around the world, continues to inform the landscape of transformation.

  13. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  14. Global Material Security | National Nuclear Security Administration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Outlook Mary Novak Managing Director IHS Global Insight Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight, Inc. Overview: Energy Sector Transformation Underway * The recession has hit energy demand hard, and aggregate energy demand is not expected to return to 2007 levels until 2018. * Oil and natural gas prices will both rise over the long-term, but the price trends will diverge with natural gas prices rising slowly due to the development of shale gas. * This forecast does not include a GHG cap-and-trade

  15. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,153 3,143 -0.3% Price (centskWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.96 ...

  16. Global

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Permalink EC, DHS's S&T Directorate, Federal Emergency Management Agency: SUMMIT Analysis, Capabilities, Facilities, Global, Infrastructure Security, Modeling, Modeling & Analysis, NISAC, Partnership, Research & Capabilities EC, DHS's S&T Directorate, Federal Emergency Management Agency: SUMMIT Natural disasters create emergency situations that must be dealt with quickly and effectively in order to minimize injury and loss of life. Simulating such events before they occur can

  17. Global

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Global axisymmetric simulations of two-fluid reconnection in an experimentally relevant geometry N. A. Murphy 1,2,a͒ and C. R. Sovinec 2,3 1 Department of Astronomy, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA 2 Center for Magnetic Self-Organization in Laboratory and Astrophysical Plasmas, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA 3 Department of Engineering Physics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA ͑Received 18 January 2008; accepted 12 March

  18. Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schmitz, Christoph; van Meijl, Hans; Kyle, G. Page; Nelson, Gerald C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gurgel, Angelo; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; von Lampe, Martin; Wise, Marshall A.; Blanc, Elodie; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Valin, Hugo

    2014-01-01

    Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 1025% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.

  19. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  20. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  1. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  2. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  3. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  4. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  5. Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

    2014-07-25

    We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is delayed and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

  6. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  7. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu

  8. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  9. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  10. Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast, 2010 - 2020 Home > Groups > Increase Natural Gas Energy Efficiency John55364's picture...

  11. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  12. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies ...

  13. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  14. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  15. UNDERSTANDING SDO/AIA OBSERVATIONS OF THE 2010 JUNE 13 EUV WAVE EVENT: DIRECT INSIGHT FROM A GLOBAL THERMODYNAMIC MHD SIMULATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Downs, Cooper; Roussev, Ilia I.; Lugaz, Noe; Van der Holst, Bart; Sokolov, Igor V.

    2012-05-10

    In this work, we present a comprehensive observation and modeling analysis of the 2010 June 13 extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) wave observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) aboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Due to extreme advances in cadence, resolution, and bandpass coverage in the EUV regime, the AIA instrument offers an unprecedented ability to observe the dynamics of large-scale coronal wave-like transients known as EUV waves. To provide a physical analysis and further complement observational insight, we conduct a three-dimensional, time-dependent thermodynamic MHD simulation of the eruption and associated EUV wave, and employ forward modeling of EUV observables to compare the results directly observations. We focus on two main aspects: (1) the interpretation of the stark thermodynamic signatures in the multi-filter AIA data within the propagating EUV wave front, and (2) an in-depth analysis of the simulation results and their implication with respect to EUV wave theories. Multiple aspects, including the relative phases of perturbed variables, suggest that the outer, propagating component of the EUV transient exhibits the behavior of a fast-mode wave. We also find that this component becomes decoupled from the evolving structures associated with the coronal mass ejection that are also visible, providing a clear distinction between wave and non-wave mechanisms at play.

  16. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil prices low. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said world oil stocks are likely to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day this year and by 600,000 barrels per day next year. The higher forecast for inventory builds are the result of both higher global oil production and less oil

  17. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  18. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement ...

  19. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  20. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  1. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. File Acquisition-Forecast-2016-05-06.xlsx More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Small Business Program Manager Directory

  2. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  3. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report PDF icon Wind Forecast Improvement Project ...

  4. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. ... means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals. ...

  5. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  6. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  7. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  8. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  9. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  10. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research supports industry, government, and academia by providing renewable energy resource measurements, models, maps, and support services. These resources are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research: Capabilities Facilities Research staff Data and resources. Resource assessment and forecasting research is primarily performed at

  11. Global warming: Science or politics? Part 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dorweiler, V.P.

    1998-05-01

    Supplementing the conclusion that ``there has been a discernible influence of human activity on global climate`` is a set of dire consequences to the globe and human population. One consequence is the spread of tropical diseases. It has not been concluded whether the spread of disease is due to global conditions or to opening of tropical forests to commerce, allowing spread by travelers. Whether these forecasts abet the claimed relation of human activity to global warming, they are not a new phenomenon. In the space of several decades, dire consequences have been forecast in three sectors: natural resource consumption, energy resources and environmental fate. These three areas are reviewed.

  12. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  13. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  14. Research Study - Global Enterprise VoIP Equipment Market Forecasts...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    we deeply analyzed the world's main region market conditions that including the product price, profit, capacity, production, capacity utilization, supply, demand and industry...

  15. Global GPS Phones Market Size, Segmentation, Demand Forecast...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    we deeply analyzed the world's main region market conditions that including the product price, profit, capacity, production, capacity utilization, supply, demand and industry...

  16. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  17. Solar Forecast Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    NOAA also will provide advanced satellite products. INNOVATIONS NOAA is providing numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling with new information that will help solar forecasts. ...

  18. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Management Tools and Best Practices Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices Development ...

  19. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  20. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  1. Global warming from HFC

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, E.

    1998-11-01

    Using a variety of public sources, a computer model of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerant emissions in the UK has been developed. This model has been used to estimate and project emissions in 2010 under three types of scenarios: (1) business as usual; (2) voluntary agreements to reduce refrigerant leakage; and (3) comprehensive regulations to reduce refrigerant leakage. This resulting forecast is that UK emissions of HFC refrigerants in 2010 will account for 2% to 4% of the UK`s 1990 baseline global warming contribution.

  2. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  3. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  4. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits ... Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits ...

  5. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio ...

  6. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar ...

  7. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  8. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  9. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  10. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  11. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  12. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  13. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  14. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Research Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Research Staff NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research staff provides expertise in renewable energy measurement and instrumentation through NREL's Power Systems Engineering Center. Photo not available Linda Crow - Administrative Associate B.S. Environmental Studies, The Evergreen State College Linda currently works for the Resource Assessment and Forecasting group as their administrative support. She has worked with scientists at the Office of Science at the Air Force Academy and at

  15. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  16. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  17. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  18. Energy Insight | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Energy Insight Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Energy Insight AgencyCompany Organization: Tendril Connect Sector: Energy Focus Area: Energy Efficiency...

  19. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  20. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  1. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  2. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  3. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  4. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  5. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  6. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wavelet-ARIMA (Conference) | SciTech Connect Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of

  7. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  8. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  9. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Preprint Jie Zhang 1 , Bri-Mathias Hodge 1 , Siyuan Lu 2 , Hendrik F. Hamann 2 , Brad Lehman 3 , Joseph Simmons 4 , Edwin Campos 5 , and Venkat Banunarayanan 6 1 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2 IBM TJ Watson Research Center 3 Northeastern University 4 University of Arizona 5 Argonne National Laboratory 6 U.S. Department of Energy Presented at the IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting Denver,

  10. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  11. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  12. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  13. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  14. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  15. Insights from Human/Mouse genome comparisons

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennacchio, Len A.

    2003-03-30

    Large-scale public genomic sequencing efforts have provided a wealth of vertebrate sequence data poised to provide insights into mammalian biology. These include deep genomic sequence coverage of human, mouse, rat, zebrafish, and two pufferfish (Fugu rubripes and Tetraodon nigroviridis) (Aparicio et al. 2002; Lander et al. 2001; Venter et al. 2001; Waterston et al. 2002). In addition, a high-priority has been placed on determining the genomic sequence of chimpanzee, dog, cow, frog, and chicken (Boguski 2002). While only recently available, whole genome sequence data have provided the unique opportunity to globally compare complete genome contents. Furthermore, the shared evolutionary ancestry of vertebrate species has allowed the development of comparative genomic approaches to identify ancient conserved sequences with functionality. Accordingly, this review focuses on the initial comparison of available mammalian genomes and describes various insights derived from such analysis.

  16. Insights from a Developer

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Characteristics That Drive Savings in Behavior-Based Programs | Department of Energy Identifying Specific Actions, Behaviors, and Characteristics That Drive Savings in Behavior-Based Programs Insights from Smart Meters: Identifying Specific Actions, Behaviors, and Characteristics That Drive Savings in Behavior-Based Programs In this report, we use smart meter data to analyze specific actions, behaviors, and characteristics that drive energy savings in a BB program. Specifically, we examine a

  17. Update on INSIGHTS Development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Listed; Eric Burgett

    2011-09-01

    INSIGHTS is a transformational separate effects testing capability to perform in situ irradiation studies and characterization of the microscale behavior of nuclear fuel materials under a wide variety of in-pile conditions. Separate effects testing including growth, irradiation, and monitoring of these materials, and encompasses the full science based approach for fuels development from the nanoscale to the mesoscale behavior of the sample material and other defects driven by the modeling and simulation efforts of INL.

  18. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  19. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  20. From global change science to action with social sciences

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weaver, C. P.; Mooney, Sian; Allen, D.; Beller-Simms, Nancy; Fish, T.; Grambsch, A.; Hohenstein, W.; Jacobs, Kathy; Kenney, Melissa A.; Lane, Meredith A.; Langner, L.; Larson, E.; McGinnis, D. L.; Moss, Richard H.; Nichols, L. G.; Nierenberg, Claudia; Seyller, E. A.; Stern, Paul; Winthrop, R.

    2014-08-01

    US efforts to integrate social and biophysical sciences to address the issue of global change exist within a wider movement to understand global change as a societal challenge and to inform policy. Insights from the social sciences can help transform global change research into action.

  1. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  2. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would

  3. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts. PDF icon Report of the External Peer Review Panel More Documents & Publications Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram Survey of Emissions Models for Distributed Combined Heat and Power

  4. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modelling Approach (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the

  5. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (BNL) Field Campaign Report (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Technical Report: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) [http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/osc2013rwpcf]

  6. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability | Department of Energy Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability This document is the notice of data availability for Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types. PDF icon

  7. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  8. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, ...

  9. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    These projects aim to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting that could increase penetration of solar power by enabling more certainty in power prediction from solar power ...

  10. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates ...

  11. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  12. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  13. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  14. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  15. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  16. Modeling for Insights

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacob J. Jacobson; Gretchen Matthern

    2007-04-01

    System Dynamics is a computer-aided approach to evaluating the interrelationships of different components and activities within complex systems. Recently, System Dynamics models have been developed in areas such as policy design, biological and medical modeling, energy and the environmental analysis, and in various other areas in the natural and social sciences. The real power of System Dynamic modeling is gaining insights into total system behavior as time, and system parameters are adjusted and the effects are visualized in real time. System Dynamic models allow decision makers and stakeholders to explore long-term behavior and performance of complex systems, especially in the context of dynamic processes and changing scenarios without having to wait decades to obtain field data or risk failure if a poor management or design approach is used. The Idaho National Laboratory recently has been developing a System Dynamic model of the US Nuclear Fuel Cycle. The model is intended to be used to identify and understand interactions throughout the entire nuclear fuel cycle and suggest sustainable development strategies. This paper describes the basic framework of the current model and presents examples of useful insights gained from the model thus far with respect to sustainable development of nuclear power.

  17. Global Warming

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    (Optimizing the GTC Code for Blue Gene/Q): ALCF-2 Early Science Program Technical Report (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Global Simulation of Plasma Microturbulence at the Petascale & Beyond (Optimizing the GTC Code for Blue Gene/Q): ALCF-2 Early Science Program Technical Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Global Simulation of Plasma Microturbulence at the Petascale & Beyond (Optimizing the GTC Code for Blue Gene/Q): ALCF-2 Early Science Program Technical Report

  18. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  19. Insights from an overview of four PRAs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fitzpatrick, R.; Arrieta, L.; Teichmann, T.; Davis, P.

    1986-01-01

    This paper summarizes the findings of an investigation of four probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), those for Millstone 3, Seabrook, Shoreham, and Oconee 3, performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for the Reliability and Risk Assessment Branch of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). This group of four PRAs was subjected to an overview process with the basic goal of ascertaining what insights might be gained (beyond those already documented within the individual PRAs) by an independent evaluation of the group with respect to nuclear plant safety and vulnerability. Specifically, the objectives of the study were (1) to identify and rank initiators, systems, components, and failure modes from dominant accident sequences according to their contribution to core melt probability and public risk; and (2) to derive from this process plant-specific and generic insights. The effort was not intended to verify the specific details and results of each PRA but rather - having accepted the results - to see what they might mean in a more global context. The NRC had previously sponsored full detailed reviews of each of these PRAs, but only two, those for Millstone 3 and Shoreham, were completed and documented in time to allow their consideration within the study. This paper also presents some comments and insights into the amenability of certain features of these PRAs to this type of overview process.

  20. Insights on STEM Careers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wendelberger, Joanne Roth

    2014-11-05

    This presentation will provide career advice for individuals seeking to go beyond just having a job to building a successful career in the areas of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics. Careful planning can be used to turn a job into a springboard for professional advancement and personal satisfaction. Topics to be addressed include setting priorities, understanding career ladders, making tough choices, overcoming stereotypes and assumptions by others, networking, developing a professional identify, and balancing a career with family and other personal responsibilities. Insights on the transition from individual technical work to leadership will also be provided. The author will draw upon experiences gained in academic, industrial, and government laboratory settings, as well as extensive professional service and community involvement.

  1. Global warming, global research, and global governing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Preining, O.

    1997-12-31

    The anticipated dangers of Global Warming can be mitigated by reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, especially CO{sub 2}. To reach acceptable, constant levels within the next couple of centuries it might be necessary to accept stabilization levels higher than present ones, The annual CO{sub 2} emissions must be reduced far below today`s values. This is a very important result of the models discussed in the 1995 IPCC report. However, any even very modest scenario for the future must take into account a substantial increase in the world population which might double during the 21st century, There is a considerable emission reduction potential of the industrialized world due to efficiency increase, However, the demand for energy services by the growing world population will, inspite of the availability of alternative energy resources, possibly lead to a net increase in fossil fuel consumption. If the climate models are right, and the science community believes they are, we will experience a global warming of the order of a couple of degrees over the next century; we have to live with it. To be prepared for the future it is essential for us to use new research techniques embracing not only the familiar fields of hard sciences but also social, educational, ethical and economic aspects, We must find a way to build up the essential intellectual capacities needed to deal with these kinds of general problems within all nations and all societies. But this is not Although, we also have to find the necessary dynamical and highly flexible structures for a global governing using tools such as the environmental regime. The first step was the Framework Convention On Climate Change, UN 1992; for resolution of questions regarding implementations the Conference of the Parties was established.

  2. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  3. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations | Department of Energy The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement

  4. The Future of Fuel and Refueling | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Biofuels An Agricultural Perspective Beth J. Calabotta Monsanto Company POPULATION GROWING AT 1.1% EACH YEAR Source: UN Population Division, Monsanto analysis INCOMES GROWING AT 3.5% PER YEAR... $5 BILLION PER DAY Source: IHS Global Insight, Agriculture Division, Monsanto analysis FOOD DEMAND GROWING AT ~1.75% EACH YEAR Source: IHS Global Insights, Agriculture Division, Monsanto analysis WATER DEMAND IS GROWING AT ~2% PER YEAR Source: McKinsey Resource Revolution 2011, Monsanto Analysis ENERGY

  5. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  6. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  7. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  8. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  9. U.S. Solar Market Insight®: 2014 Year In Review (Executive Summary)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    U.S. Solar Market Insight is a quarterly publication of the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA)® and GTM Research. Each quarter, they survey nearly 200 installers, manufacturers, utilities, and state agencies to collect granular data on photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar. These data provide the backbone of the Solar Market Insight report, in which they identify and analyze trends in U.S. solar demand, manufacturing, and pricing by state and market segment. This analysis also forecasts demand over the next five years. As the U.S. solar market expands, it is the hope that Solar Market Insight will provide an invaluable decision-making tool for installers, suppliers, investors, policymakers, and advocates alike.

  10. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  11. Global Arrays

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2006-02-23

    The Global Arrays (GA) toolkit provides an efficient and portable “shared-memory” programming interface for distributed-memory computers. Each process in a MIMD parallel program can asynchronously access logical blocks of physically distributed dense multi-dimensional arrays, without need for explicit cooperation by other processes. Unlike other shared-memory environments, the GA model exposes to the programmer the non-uniform memory access (NUMA) characteristics of the high performance computers and acknowledges that access to a remote portion of the sharedmore » data is slower than to the local portion. The locality information for the shared data is available, and a direct access to the local portions of shared data is provided. Global Arrays have been designed to complement rather than substitute for the message-passing programming model. The programmer is free to use both the shared-memory and message-passing paradigms in the same program, and to take advantage of existing message-passing software libraries. Global Arrays are compatible with the Message Passing Interface (MPI).« less

  12. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  13. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  14. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  15. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    love to hear from you Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR...

  16. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  17. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  18. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average 2.21 per gallon this summer. While that's 17 ...

  19. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  20. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    1) To provide profiles of the horizontal wind to be used to test and validate short-term cloud advection forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical ...

  1. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  2. Forecasting the oil-gasoline price relationship: should we care...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    (2007, EE) obtain similar results on a panel of 15 OECD countries, with annual data ... Results Point forecasts of the N.Y. gasoline price 26 Panel (a): daily data Model MSFE ...

  3. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration in Idaho and Oregon Page 1 Under the ... (RIT) that enables grid operators to use wind energy more cost-effectively to serve ...

  4. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Chesapeake Bay (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters

  5. Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations:

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Frequentist and Bayesian analyses (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological

  6. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and

  7. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Laboratory (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory Citation Details In-Document Search Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, therefore, the amount and stability of the energy output from the system, clouds represent the greatest source of short-term (i.e., scale of minutes to

  8. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NOAA Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007 Forecasting Challenge While weather experiments in the heart of Tornado Alley typically focus on severe weather, the CLASIC and CHAPS programs will have different emphases. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Norman, Okla. will provide weather forecasting support to these two Department of Energy experiments based in the state. Forecasting support for meteorological research field programs usually

  9. Space-Time Insight | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Space-Time Insight Jump to: navigation, search Name: Space-Time Insight Address: 45680 Northport Loop East Place: Fremont, California Zip: 94538 Region: Bay Area Sector: Efficiency...

  10. Insights into Methyltransferase Specificity and Bioactivity of...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: Insights into Methyltransferase Specificity and Bioactivity of Derivatives of the Antibiotic Plantazolicin Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Insights into ...

  11. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  12. New CEMAC Report Examines Global Dynamics of Energy Manufacturing |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy CEMAC Report Examines Global Dynamics of Energy Manufacturing New CEMAC Report Examines Global Dynamics of Energy Manufacturing March 11, 2016 - 1:14pm Addthis New CEMAC Report Examines Global Dynamics of Energy Manufacturing David Danielson David Danielson Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy The Clean Energy Manufacturing Analysis Center's (CEMAC) first annual Research Highlights report offers fresh insights on key challenges and opportunities

  13. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  14. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  15. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  16. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  17. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  18. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  19. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  20. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  1. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  2. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during

  3. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting UCAR logo2.jpg The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research. APPROACH UCAR value chain.png The team will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through

  4. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Types | Department of Energy Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types More Documents & Publications Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability CX-100584 Categorical Exclusion Determination ISSUANCE

  5. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  6. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  7. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  8. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  9. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  10. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  11. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  12. Global Home Filesystem

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Global Home Global Home Filesystem Overview Global home directories (or "global homes") provide a convenient means for a user to have access to dotfiles, source files, input files, configuration files, etc., regardless of the platform the user is logged in to. Quotas, Performance, and Usage Default global home quotas are 40 GB and 1,000,000 inodes. Quota increases in global homes are approved only in extremely unusual circumstances; users are encouraged to use the various scratch,

  13. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SunShot Grand Challenge: Regional Test Centers Global Climate & Energy HomeTag:Global Climate & Energy Electricity use by water service sector and county. Shown are electricity ...

  14. Sandia Energy - Global

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Global Home Analysis Permalink Gallery Results from the Human Resilience Index and Modeling project were reported recently in the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2030...

  15. Cleantech Professional Resource Global Limited CPR Global | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Professional Resource Global Limited CPR Global Jump to: navigation, search Name: Cleantech Professional Resource Global Limited (CPR Global) Place: London, United Kingdom Zip:...

  16. New Global Research Website | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    I Want to See... the New Global Research Website Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window) Share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Click to share (Opens in new window) Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window) I Want to See... the New Global Research Website GE Global Research 2014.03.17 Today, we are excited to unveil the brand new GE Global Research website. You can find this new web destination at geglobalresearch.com. The new

  17. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction ! " #" $ % % & # % " " " ' % ' ( ) * + " % ( , - . / 0 / " 0 . * 0 . * . . " 0 References A short model description Sensitivity tests Results Tropospheric humidity # " humidity 1 % 2 % ' 3 " % + 1 % 2 % % 3 % Updraft entrainment ' + % " 3 % 4 # " + %' 5 6)( . % ' 1 % .7

  18. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data Center (RReDC) Provides information about biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind energy resources. Measurement and Instrumentation Data Center Provides irradiance and meteorological data from stations throughout the United States. Baseline Measurement System (BMS) Provides live solar radiation data from approximately 70

  19. NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Elizabeth Torres Clayton Barrows Dave Bielen Aaron Bloom Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Wesley Cole Paul Denholm Nicholas DiOrio Aron Dobos Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Bethany Frew Pieter Gagnon Elaine Hale

  20. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  1. The role of moisture transport between ground and atmosphere in global change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rind, D.; Rosenzweig, C.; Stieglitz, M.

    1997-12-31

    Projections of the effect of climate change on future water availability are examined by reviewing the formulations used to calculate moisture transport between the ground and the atmosphere. General circulation models and climate change impact models have substantially different formulations for evapotranspiration, so their projections of future water availability often disagree, even though they use the same temperature and precipitation forecasts. General circulation models forecast little change in tropical and subtropical water availability, while impact models show severe water and agricultural shortages. A comparison of observations and modeling techniques shows that the parameterizations in general circulation models likely lead to an underestimate of the impacts of global warming on soil moisture and vegetation. Such errors would crucially affect the temperature and precipitation forecasts used in impact models. Some impact model evaporation formulations are probably more appropriate than those in general circulation models, but important questions remain. More observations are needed, especially in the vicinity of forests, to determine appropriate parameterizations.

  2. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  3. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  4. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  5. New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Two new observation stations -– in Alaska and the Azore islands -– should reduce uncertainties and improve global climate models.

  6. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred

    2008-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  7. Insights from UT Austin Energy Poll

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Insights from UT Austin Energy Poll on U.S. Consumer Attitudes, July 24, 2013, Sheril Kirshenbaum, director of The Energy Poll.

  8. Selecting Solar: Insights into Residential Photovoltaic (PV)...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Selecting Solar: Insights into Residential Photovoltaic (PV) Quote Variation Carolyn Davidson and Robert Margolis National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL...

  9. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  10. GE Global Research Contact | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    1800 Cai Lun Road, Zhangjiang High-Tech Park, Pudong, Shanghai, 201203, China Joey Yang +86 21 38773407 joey.yang@ge.com Communications and Public Relations GE Global...

  11. GE Global Research Locations | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Inventio Always Open At GE Global Research, we work around the clock and across the globe to build, power, move and cure the world. Continue to the experience En Bp China...

  12. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  13. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  14. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  15. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Value of Improved Short- Term Wind Power Forecasting B.-M. Hodge and A. Florita National Renewable Energy Laboratory J. Sharp Sharply Focused, LLC M. Margulis and D. Mcreavy Lockheed Martin Technical Report NREL/TP-5D00-63175 February 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

  16. Functional Insights from Structural Genomics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Forouhar,F.; Kuzin, A.; Seetharaman, J.; Lee, I.; Zhou, W.; Abashidze, M.; Chen, Y.; Montelione, G.; Tong, L.; et al

    2007-01-01

    Structural genomics efforts have produced structural information, either directly or by modeling, for thousands of proteins over the past few years. While many of these proteins have known functions, a large percentage of them have not been characterized at the functional level. The structural information has provided valuable functional insights on some of these proteins, through careful structural analyses, serendipity, and structure-guided functional screening. Some of the success stories based on structures solved at the Northeast Structural Genomics Consortium (NESG) are reported here. These include a novel methyl salicylate esterase with important role in plant innate immunity, a novel RNA methyltransferase (H. influenzae yggJ (HI0303)), a novel spermidine/spermine N-acetyltransferase (B. subtilis PaiA), a novel methyltransferase or AdoMet binding protein (A. fulgidus AF{_}0241), an ATP:cob(I)alamin adenosyltransferase (B. subtilis YvqK), a novel carboxysome pore (E. coli EutN), a proline racemase homolog with a disrupted active site (B. melitensis BME11586), an FMN-dependent enzyme (S. pneumoniae SP{_}1951), and a 12-stranded {beta}-barrel with a novel fold (V. parahaemolyticus VPA1032).

  17. Venture Global Calcasieu Pass, LLC - (Formerly Venture Global...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Venture Global Calcasieu Pass, LLC - (Formerly Venture Global LNG, LLC) - 14-88-LNG Venture Global Calcasieu Pass, LLC - (Formerly Venture Global LNG, LLC) - 14-88-LNG The Office ...

  18. Before House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights,

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and International Organizations, Committee on Foreign Affairs | Department of Energy Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations, Committee on Foreign Affairs Before House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations, Committee on Foreign Affairs Testimony of Jonathan Elkind, Acting Assistant Secretary, Office of International Affairs Before House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human

  19. The Global Positioning System constellation as a space weather monitor. Comparison of electron measurements with Van Allen Probes data

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Morley, Steven K.; Sullivan, John P.; Henderson, Michael G.; Blake, J. Bernard; Baker, Daniel N.

    2016-02-06

    Energetic electron observations in Earth's radiation belts are typically sparse, and multipoint studies often rely on serendipitous conjunctions. This paper establishes the scientific utility of the Combined X-ray Dosimeter (CXD), currently flown on 19 satellites in the Global Positioning System (GPS) constellation, by cross-calibrating energetic electron measurements against data from the Van Allen Probes. By breaking our cross calibration into two parts—one that removes any spectral assumptions from the CXD flux calculation and one that compares the energy spectra—we first validate the modeled instrument response functions, then the calculated electron fluxes. Unlike previous forward modeling of energetic electron spectra, wemore » use a combination of four distributions that together capture a wide range of observed spectral shapes. Moreover, our two-step approach allowed us to identify, and correct for, small systematic offsets between block IIR and IIF satellites. Using the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer and Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope on Van Allen Probes as a “gold standard,” here we demonstrate that the CXD instruments are well understood. A robust statistical analysis shows that CXD and Van Allen Probes fluxes are similar and the measured fluxes from CXD are typically within a factor of 2 of Van Allen Probes at energies inline image4 MeV. Our team present data from 17 CXD-equipped GPS satellites covering the 2015 “St. Patrick's Day” geomagnetic storm to illustrate the scientific applications of such a high data density satellite constellation and therefore demonstrate that the GPS constellation is positioned to enable new insights in inner magnetospheric physics and space weather forecasting.« less

  20. Global Threat Reduction Initiative

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy Minimize Nuclear Waste Global Nuclear Energy Partnership Fact Sheet - Minimize Nuclear Waste GNEP will increase the efficiency in the management of used nuclear fuel, also known as spent fuel, and defer the need for additional geologic nuclear waste repositories until the next century. PDF icon Global Nuclear Energy Partnership Fact Sheet - Minimize Nuclear Waste More Documents & Publications GNEP Element:Develop Enhanced Nuclear Safeguards Global Nuclear Energy

  1. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  2. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  3. Building | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Read More Ceramic Matrix Composites Improve Engine Efficiency Ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) are a breakthrough materials technology for jet engines that started at our Global ...

  4. ARM - Global Warming

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox ...

  5. ARM - Global Experts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox ...

  6. ARM - Global Thinkers

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox ...

  7. ARM - Global Beginners

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox ...

  8. Global Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable ... Climate & Earth Systems Climate Measurement & Modeling Arctic Climate Measurements Global ...

  9. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Participated in the 2013 Domenici Public Policy Conference Carbon Capture & Storage, Carbon Storage, Climate, Earth Sciences Research Center, Energy, Global Climate & Energy, ...

  10. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Team Attends World Water Week in Stockholm Climate, Energy, Global Climate & Energy, Modeling, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Water Security Sandia Team Attends World ...

  11. Curing | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Curing We're pioneering medical developments, from robotic healthcare assistants to diagnostic tools and specialized, globally deployed gear. Home > Impact > Curing Invention...

  12. Curing | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Curing We're pioneering medical developments, from robotic healthcare assistants to diagnostic tools and specialized, globally deployed gear. Home > Impact > Curing Crowdsourcing...

  13. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  14. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  15. NREL: Technology Deployment - DGIC Interconnection Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    DGIC Interconnection Insights The Distributed Generation Interconnection Collaborative (DGIC) Insights provide answers to questions posed by DGIC participants, deliver timely updates on pressing interconnection issues, and disseminates analysis findings to inform decision making and planning. Utility Owned Roof Top Solar March 2016 by Kristen Ardani, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) These leaders are pioneering utility-owned rooftop solar programs to broaden the reach of solar PV

  16. Analyzing ocean mixing reveals insight on climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Analyzing ocean mixing reveals insight on climate Analyzing ocean mixing reveals insight on climate LANL scientists have developed a computer model that clarifies the complex processes driving ocean mixing in the vast eddies that swirl across hundreds of miles of open ocean. June 24, 2015 A three-dimensional spatial structure of mixing in an idealized ocean simulation, computed using Lagrangian particle statistics. A three-dimensional spatial structure of mixing in an idealized ocean simulation,

  17. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  18. Neutrons provide new insights into human cell behavior

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Neutrons provide new insights into human cell behavior Community Connections: Your link to ... All Issues submit Neutrons provide new insights into human cell behavior Physics and ...

  19. Neutrons provide new insights into human cell behavior

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Neutrons provide new insights into human cell behavior Alumni Link: Opportunities, News ... All Issues submit Neutrons provide new insights into human cell behavior Physics and ...

  20. Building America Whole-House Solutions for New Homes: Insight...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Building America Whole-House Solutions for New Homes: Insight Homes, Seaford, Delaware Case study of Insight Homes, who worked with the Building America research partner IBACOS to ...

  1. Insights from modeling and observational evaluation of a precipitating...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Insights from modeling and observational evaluation of a precipitating continental cumulus event observed during the MC3E field campaign Title: Insights from modeling and ...

  2. ALS Gives Chevron Scientists New Insights into Corrosion Resistance

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ALS Gives Chevron Scientists New Insights into Corrosion Resistance ALS Gives Chevron Scientists New Insights into Corrosion Resistance Print Thursday, 25 July 2013 13:44 In the...

  3. Voices of Experience: New Guide Offers Utilities' Insights on...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Voices of Experience: New Guide Offers Utilities' Insights on Engaging with Smart Grid Customers Voices of Experience: New Guide Offers Utilities' Insights on Engaging with Smart ...

  4. Structural insights into electron transfer in caa[subscript 3...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: Structural insights into electron transfer in caasubscript 3-type cytochrome oxidase Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Structural insights into electron ...

  5. Insight into Alzheimer's, cancer, anemia gleaned from ribosome...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Insights from ribosome research Insight into Alzheimer's, cancer, anemia gleaned from ribosome research Groundbreaking study of the human ribosome reveals tiny molecular machine is...

  6. Physics of Reliability: Evaluating Design Insights for Component...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Physics of Reliability: Evaluating Design Insights for Component Technologies in Solar (PREDICTS) Funding Opportunity Physics of Reliability: Evaluating Design Insights for ...

  7. Structural and mechanistic insights into Mps1 kinase activation...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Structural and mechanistic insights into Mps1 kinase activation Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Structural and mechanistic insights into Mps1 kinase activation Mps1 is ...

  8. A global warning for global warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Paepe, R.

    1996-12-31

    The problem of global warming is a complex one not only because it is affecting desert areas such as the Sahel leading to famine disasters of poor rural societies, but because it is an even greater threat to modern well established industrial societies. Global warming is a complex problem of geographical, economical and societal factors together which definitely are biased by local environmental parameters. There is an absolute need to increase the knowledge of such parameters, especially to understand their limits of variance. The greenhouse effect is a global mechanism which means that in changing conditions at one point of the Earth, it will affect all other regions of the globe. Industrial pollution and devastation of the forest are quoted as similar polluting anthropogenic activities in far apart regions of the world with totally different societies and industrial compounds. The other important factor is climatic cyclicity which means that droughts are bound to natural cycles. These natural cycles are numerous as is reflected in the study of geo-proxydata from several sequential geological series on land, ice and deepsea. Each of these cycles reveals a drought cycle which occasionally interfere at the same time. It is believed that the present drought might well be a point of interference between the natural cycles of 2,500 and 1,000 years and the man induced cycle of the last century`s warming up. If the latter is the only cycle involved, man will be able to remediate. If not, global warming will become even more disastrous beyond the 21st century.

  9. GE Global Research News | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Newsroom Our technologies transform GE's businesses and the world. Learn about them, meet our experts and read news coverage about our work. Home > Newsroom Meet Our Experts Our scientists are global leaders in their fields. They welcome media inquiries. Find an Expert » Media Contacts A photograph of Natalia Albuquerque Rio de Janeiro Natalia Albuquerque +55 21 3548-6193 A photograph of Todd Alhart Niskayuna, Oklahoma City, Munich Todd Alhart +1.518.387.7914 A photograph of Tenzin Dechen

  10. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  11. Photonics | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Home > Impact > The Photonics Lab at GE Global Research Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window) Share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Click to share (Opens in new window) Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window) The Photonics Lab at GE Global Research Loucas Tsakalakos, the Photonics lab manager at GE Global Research, introduces photonics and shares the lab's work on innovative ways to use light. You Might Also Like

  12. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  13. Global Cool Cities Alliance

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Department of Energy (DOE) is currently supporting the Global Cool Cities Alliance (GCCA), a non-profit organization that works with cities, regions, and national governments to speed the...

  14. Building | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Read More Electric Submersible Pumps (ESPs) Surface More Oil and Gas A technology used in 60% of global oil production today, ESPs extract oil by pumping it to the surface. In ...

  15. Invention | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Invention Our people drive every scientific advance we make, every day. Find out who they are and what they're thinking right now. Home > Invention Inventors GE Global Research...

  16. Building | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    how we work across supply chains. By... Read More What is the GE store? Mark Little, CTO & Head of Global Research at GE, describes what the GE Store means and why it's...

  17. Fast Global File Status

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2013-01-01

    Fast Global File Status (FGFS) is a system software package that implimints a scalable mechanism to retrieve file information, such as its degree of distribution or replication and consistency.

  18. Global Renewable Power International Global RPI | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    to: navigation, search Name: Global Renewable Power International (Global RPI) Place: Spain Sector: Wind energy Product: Spain-based developer of wind projects in Poland, Croatia...

  19. Before House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Before House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations, Committee on Foreign Affairs Testimony of Jonathan Elkind, Acting ...

  20. Enhancing Cloud Radiative Processes and Radiation Efficiency in the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iacono, Michael J.

    2015-03-09

    The objective of this research has been to evaluate and implement enhancements to the computational performance of the RRTMG radiative transfer option in the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Efficiency is as essential as accuracy for effective numerical weather prediction, and radiative transfer is a relatively time-consuming component of dynamical models, taking up to 30-50 percent of the total model simulation time. To address this concern, this research has implemented and tested a version of RRTMG that utilizes graphics processing unit (GPU) technology (hereinafter RRTMGPU) to greatly improve its computational performance; thereby permitting either more frequent simulation of radiative effects or other model enhancements. During the early stages of this project the development of RRTMGPU was completed at AER under separate NASA funding to accelerate the code for use in the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Goddard Earth Observing System GEOS-5 global model. It should be noted that this final report describes results related to the funded portion of the originally proposed work concerning the acceleration of RRTMG with GPUs in WRF. As a k-distribution model, RRTMG is especially well suited to this modification due to its relatively large internal pseudo-spectral (g-point) dimension that, when combined with the horizontal grid vector in the dynamical model, can take great advantage of the GPU capability. Thorough testing under several model configurations has been performed to ensure that RRTMGPU improves WRF model run time while having no significant impact on calculated radiative fluxes and heating rates or on dynamical model fields relative to the RRTMG radiation. The RRTMGPU codes have been provided to NCAR for possible application to the next public release of the WRF forecast model.

  1. Perihelion Global | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Perihelion Global Jump to: navigation, search Name: Perihelion Global Place: Port Jefferson, New York Zip: 11776 Product: A company focused on the acquisition, development and...

  2. ARM - Lesson Plans: Global Warming

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Global Warming Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global ...

  3. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within...

  4. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled “Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.” By researching the physical processes...

  5. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  6. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an...

  7. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    That's down 12 percent from last summer's record exports. Biodiesel production, which averaged 68,000 barrels a day last summer, is forecast to jump to 82,000 barrels a day this ...

  8. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. ...

  9. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  10. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  11. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in ...

  12. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  13. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  14. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  15. Modeling the Oil Transition: A Summary of the Proceedings of the DOE/EPA Workshop on the Economic and Environmental Implications of Global Energy Transitions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greene, David L

    2007-02-01

    The global energy system faces sweeping changes in the next few decades, with potentially critical implications for the global economy and the global environment. It is important that global institutions have the tools necessary to predict, analyze and plan for such massive change. This report summarizes the proceedings of an international workshop concerning methods of forecasting, analyzing, and planning for global energy transitions and their economic and environmental consequences. A specific case, it focused on the transition from conventional to unconventional oil and other energy sources likely to result from a peak in non-OPEC and/or global production of conventional oil. Leading energy models from around the world in government, academia and the private sector met, reviewed the state-of-the-art of global energy modeling and evaluated its ability to analyze and predict large-scale energy transitions.

  16. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  17. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ARM Observations (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations (in English; Croatian) Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was

  18. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  19. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  20. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  1. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  2. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  3. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  4. Timeline | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Global Research Over Time From our earliest days, we've been changing the landscape in commercial science and technology. Explore our inventions' evolution. Home > Global Research Over Time Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window) Share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Click to share (Opens in new window) Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window) Warning: You must have JavaScript enabled in your browser in order to use this

  5. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  6. Global Scratch Gets an Upgrade

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Global Scratch Gets an Upgrade Global Scratch Gets an Upgrade Improvements Will Include Higher Data Output Rates, Connection to PDSF October 29, 2013 The most used file system at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)-global scratch-just got an upgrade. As a result, some users may see their data output to global scratch reach up to 80 gigabytes per second. Although users will probably not see their 20-terabyte storage quotas increase, the upgrade ensures that global

  7. Global decarbonization strategies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Messner, S.

    1996-12-31

    The presentation covers a brief summary of the research activities of the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies Project (ECS) at IIASA. The overall research focuses on long-term global energy development and emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). The ultimate goal is to analyze strategies that achieve decarbonization of global energy systems during the next century. The specific activities range from mitigation of GHG emissions to an integrated assessment of climate change. One focal point is the GHG mitigation technology inventory CO{sub 2}DB, which presently covers approximately 1,400 technologies related to energy and the greenhouse effect. Another integral part is the development of global energy and emissions scenarios, an effort involving a number of formal models to assess the implications. A large number of global scenarios for the next century has been developed, that could be grouped into three families. All of them include energy efficiency improvements and some degree of decarbonization in the world. They are based on different economic and technological development trajectories, and their emissions range from very high to a stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions. The presentation will outline the salient characteristics of the three scenario families and provide some regional implications of these alternative futures.

  8. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  9. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    outcome of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular interest are: 1. Correlated behavior among variables (e.g., changes in dispatch stacks, production costs, or generation by type as a function of forecasting accuracy); 2. The relative reduction in wind curtailment with improved forecasting accuracy; and 3. The value of information (e.g., which subset of

  10. DOE Research and Development Accomplishments Interesting Insights

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    DNA Interesting Insights Atom Neat Stuff a pre-Pong video game (Tennis for Two) [Video game] why dinosaurs are extinct [Alvarez] BuckyBall 'optical tweezers' [Chu] the molecule named Buckminsterfullerene (Buckyball) [Curl, Smalley] femtochemistry [Zewail] the structure of protein [Deisenhofer] the maser and the laser [Townes] Gaussian Code [Pople] biological computer modeling [Levitt] chemical computer modeling [Karplus] the Manhattan Project brings an end to World War II an anti-jet-lag diet

  11. Network-based Analysis and Insights | NISAC

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NISACNetwork-based Analysis and Insights content top Chemical Supply Chain Analysis Posted by Admin on Mar 1, 2012 in | Comments 0 comments Chemical Supply Chain Analysis NISAC has developed a range of capabilities for analyzing the consequences of disruptions to the chemical manufacturing industry. Each capability provides a different but complementary perspective on the questions of interest-questions like Given an event, will the entire chemical sector be impacted or just parts? Which

  12. Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Print Wednesday, 25 February 2009 00:00 XPD helicase is an enzyme...

  13. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  14. Moving | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Moving We're always working on planes, trains and automobiles-and specialized ways to move people and products efficiently and sustainably. Home > Impact > Moving Green Skies of Brazil Improves Airspace Efficiency It's not uncommon for planes approaching some of Brazil's busiest airports to travel miles out of the way while pilots wait... Read More » Reducing Emissions in the New Tier 4 Locomotive GE Global Research Internal Combustion lab manager Omowoleola "Wole" Akinyemi

  15. Global Bioenergy Partnership Meetings

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s Bioenergy Technologies Office Sustainability Technology Manager Kristen Johnson represented the Office at the Global Bioenergy Partnership (GBEP) Meetings in Rome, Italy. The event included three meetings, the 7th annual GBEP Working Group on Capacity Building, the 13th annual Task Force on Sustainability to discuss the experiences with the GBEP Sustainability Indicators for Bioenergy, and the 18th annual GBEP Steering Committee to discuss strategies for sustainable bioenergy development and deployment.

  16. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia, DOE Energy Storage Program, GeneSiC Semiconductor, U.S. Army ARDEC: Ultra-High-Voltage Silicon Carbide Thyristors Capabilities, Distribution Grid Integration, Energy, Energy Efficiency, Energy Storage Systems, Global Climate & Energy, Grid Integration, Infrastructure Security, Materials Science, Partnership, Research & Capabilities, SMART Grid, Systems Engineering, Transmission Grid Integration Sandia, DOE Energy Storage Program, GeneSiC Semiconductor, U.S. Army ARDEC:

  17. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandians Published in American Chemical Society's Environmental Science & Technology Analysis, Climate, Energy, Global Climate & Energy, Modeling, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Systems Analysis, Water Security Sandians Published in American Chemical Society's Environmental Science & Technology Electricity use by water service sector and county. Shown are electricity use by (a) large-scale conveyance, (b) groundwater irrigation pumping, (c) surface water irrigation

  18. Curing | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Curing We're pioneering medical developments, from robotic healthcare assistants to diagnostic tools and specialized, globally deployed gear. Home > Impact > Curing Hospital Management Is Evolving to Reduce Wait Times With hospitals busier than ever and not enough staff to meet the higher demand, going to the hospital can be a series of waiting... Read More » Making High-Value Imaging More Accessible Around the World Advancements in healthcare are creating a paradigm shift in how we

  19. Global climate feedbacks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Manowitz, B.

    1990-10-01

    The important physical, chemical, and biological events that affect global climate change occur on a mesoscale -- requiring high spatial resolution for their analysis. The Department of Energy has formulated two major initiatives under the US Global Change Program: ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurements), and CHAMMP (Computer Hardware Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics). ARM is designed to use ground and air-craft based observations to document profiles of atmospheric composition, clouds, and radiative fluxes. With research and models of important physical processes, ARM will delineate the relationships between trace gases, aerosol and cloud structure, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, and will improve the parameterization of global circulation models. The present GCMs do not model important feedbacks, including those from clouds, oceans, and land processes. The purpose of this workshop is to identify such potential feedbacks, to evaluate the uncertainties in the feedback processes (and, if possible, to parameterize the feedback processes so that they can be treated in a GCM), and to recommend research programs that will reduce the uncertainties in important feedback processes. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases.

  20. Global Energy Futures Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2004-01-01

    The Global Energy Futures Model (GEFM) is a demand-based, gross domestic product (GDP)-driven, dynamic simulation tool that provides an integrated framework to model key aspects of energy, nuclear-materials storage and disposition, environmental effluents from fossil and non fossil energy and global nuclear-materials management. Based entirely on public source data, it links oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and renewable energy dynamically to greenhouse-gas emissions and 13 other measures of environmental impact. It includes historical data frommore » 1990 to 2000, is benchmarked to the DOE/EIA/IEO 2002 [5] Reference Case for 2000 to 2020, and extrapolates energy demand through the year 2050. The GEFM is globally integrated, and breaks out five regions of the world: United States of America (USA), the Peoples Republic of China (China), the former Soviet Union (FSU), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations excluding the USA (other industrialized countries), and the rest of the world (ROW) (essentially the developing world). The GEFM allows the user to examine a very wide range of what ir scenarios through 2050 and to view the potential effects across widely dispersed, but interrelated areas. The authors believe that this high-level learning tool will help to stimulate public policy debate on energy, environment, economic and national security issues.« less

  1. Global interrupt and barrier networks

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Blumrich, Matthias A. (Ridgefield, CT); Chen, Dong (Croton-On-Hudson, NY); Coteus, Paul W. (Yorktown Heights, NY); Gara, Alan G. (Mount Kisco, NY); Giampapa, Mark E (Irvington, NY); Heidelberger, Philip (Cortlandt Manor, NY); Kopcsay, Gerard V. (Yorktown Heights, NY); Steinmacher-Burow, Burkhard D. (Mount Kisco, NY); Takken, Todd E. (Mount Kisco, NY)

    2008-10-28

    A system and method for generating global asynchronous signals in a computing structure. Particularly, a global interrupt and barrier network is implemented that implements logic for generating global interrupt and barrier signals for controlling global asynchronous operations performed by processing elements at selected processing nodes of a computing structure in accordance with a processing algorithm; and includes the physical interconnecting of the processing nodes for communicating the global interrupt and barrier signals to the elements via low-latency paths. The global asynchronous signals respectively initiate interrupt and barrier operations at the processing nodes at times selected for optimizing performance of the processing algorithms. In one embodiment, the global interrupt and barrier network is implemented in a scalable, massively parallel supercomputing device structure comprising a plurality of processing nodes interconnected by multiple independent networks, with each node including one or more processing elements for performing computation or communication activity as required when performing parallel algorithm operations. One multiple independent network includes a global tree network for enabling high-speed global tree communications among global tree network nodes or sub-trees thereof. The global interrupt and barrier network may operate in parallel with the global tree network for providing global asynchronous sideband signals.

  2. Endeavor Global | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    :"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":"" Hide Map References: Endeavor Global Web Site1 This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. Endeavor Global is...

  3. Laser Manufacturing | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Laser Manufacturing at GE Global Research Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new ... Laser Manufacturing at GE Global Research Learn how laser sintering, an additive laser ...

  4. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  5. ARM - What Causes Global Warming?

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ThinkersWhat Causes Global Warming? Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans What Causes Global Warming? What is the basis for the predictions concerning global warming? There are several gases in the air, collectively called greenhouse gases, that trap the infrared radiation emitted

  6. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models includes the characterization of patient-specific response with implications for treatment management and research study design.

  7. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below $3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below $3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular gasoline should average $2.33 per gallon this year. The price of gasoline increased in early February after falling for 17 weeks in a row. But gasoline prices will continue to remain low in 2015 when compared with pump prices in recent

  8. A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the "Microbase" value added product (referred to as OBS, within

  9. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  10. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  11. Global carbon budget 2014

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Peters, G. P.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Jones, S. D.; Sitch, S.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; et al

    2015-05-08

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissionsmore » from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ;, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004–2013), EFF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr⁻¹,ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr⁻¹, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, and SLAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr⁻¹. For year 2013 alone, EFF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr⁻¹, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, and SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr⁻¹. GATM was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in EFF and smaller and opposite changes between SOCEAN and SLAND compared to the past decade (2004–2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.5% (1.3–3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO2 yr⁻¹), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO2) for 1870–2014, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).« less

  12. The Global Energy Challenge

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Crabtree, George

    2010-01-08

    The expected doubling of global energy demand by 2050 challenges our traditional patterns of energy production, distribution and use.   The continued use of fossil fuels raises concerns about supply, security, environment and climate.  New routes are needed for the efficient conversion of energy from chemical fuel, sunlight, and heat to electricity or hydrogen as an energy carrier and finally to end uses like transportation, lighting, and heating. Opportunities for efficient new energy conversion routes based on nanoscale materials will be presented, with emphasis on the sustainable energy technologies they enable.

  13. Global carbon budget 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Peters, G. P.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Jones, S. D.; Sitch, S.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Boden, T. A.; Bopp, L.; Bozec, Y.; Canadell, J. G.; Chini, L. P.; Chevallier, F.; Cosca, C. E.; Harris, I.; Hoppema, M.; Houghton, R. A.; House, J. I.; Jain, A. K.; Johannessen, T.; Kato, E.; Keeling, R. F.; Kitidis, V.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Koven, C.; Landa, C. S.; Landschützer, P.; Lenton, A.; Lima, I. D.; Marland, G.; Mathis, J. T.; Metzl, N.; Nojiri, Y.; Olsen, A.; Ono, T.; Peng, S.; Peters, W.; Pfeil, B.; Poulter, B.; Raupach, M. R.; Regnier, P.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Salisbury, J. E.; Schuster, U.; Schwinger, J.; Séférian, R.; Segschneider, J.; Steinhoff, T.; Stocker, B. D.; Sutton, A. J.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; van der Werf, G. R.; Viovy, N.; Wang, Y.-P.; Wanninkhof, R.; Wiltshire, A.; Zeng, N.

    2015-05-08

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ;, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004–2013), EFF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr⁻¹,ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr⁻¹, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, and SLAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr⁻¹. For year 2013 alone, EFF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr⁻¹, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, and SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr⁻¹. GATM was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in EFF and smaller and opposite changes between SOCEAN and SLAND compared to the past decade (2004–2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.5% (1.3–3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO2 yr⁻¹), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO2) for 1870–2014, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).

  14. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  15. Global tree network for computing structures enabling global processing operations

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Blumrich; Matthias A.; Chen, Dong; Coteus, Paul W.; Gara, Alan G.; Giampapa, Mark E.; Heidelberger, Philip; Hoenicke, Dirk; Steinmacher-Burow, Burkhard D.; Takken, Todd E.; Vranas, Pavlos M.

    2010-01-19

    A system and method for enabling high-speed, low-latency global tree network communications among processing nodes interconnected according to a tree network structure. The global tree network enables collective reduction operations to be performed during parallel algorithm operations executing in a computer structure having a plurality of the interconnected processing nodes. Router devices are included that interconnect the nodes of the tree via links to facilitate performance of low-latency global processing operations at nodes of the virtual tree and sub-tree structures. The global operations performed include one or more of: broadcast operations downstream from a root node to leaf nodes of a virtual tree, reduction operations upstream from leaf nodes to the root node in the virtual tree, and point-to-point message passing from any node to the root node. The global tree network is configurable to provide global barrier and interrupt functionality in asynchronous or synchronized manner, and, is physically and logically partitionable.

  16. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  17. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  18. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  19. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  20. Global Research on On The Verge | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Department of Energy Global Nuclear Energy Partnership Triples in Size to 16 Members Global Nuclear Energy Partnership Triples in Size to 16 Members September 16, 2007 - 2:33pm Addthis Nations Sign On to International Cooperation for Safe Expansion of Nuclear Energy Worldwide VIENNA, AUSTRIA - U.S. Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bodman and senior international officials from 16 nations today agreed to increase international nuclear energy cooperation through the Global Nuclear Energy

  1. AVTA: 2010 Honda Insight HEV Testing Results

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Vehicle Technologies Office's Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity carries out testing on a wide range of advanced vehicles and technologies on dynamometers, closed test tracks, and on-the-road. These results provide benchmark data that researchers can use to develop technology models and guide future research and development. The following reports describe results of testing done on a 2010 Honda Insight hybrid-electric vehicle. Baseline and other data collected at Idaho National Laboratory is in the attached documents. Baseline and battery testing data collected at Argonne National Laboratory is available in summary and CSV form on the Argonne Downloadable Dynometer Database site (http://www.anl.gov/energy-systems/group/downloadable-dynamometer-databas...). Taken together, these reports give an overall view of how this vehicle functions under extensive testing.

  2. Geoscience Australia Continuous Global Positioning System (GPS...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    System Darwin, Australia, ARM site Geoscience Australia Global Navigation Satellite System Global Positioning System Receiver Independent Exchange Format South Pacific ...

  3. Principal Associate Director - Global Security

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Principal Associate Director - Global Security As Principal Associate Director for Global Security, Terry Wallace leads Laboratory programs with special focus on developing and applying the scientific and engineering capabilities to address complex national and global security threats. Contact Operator Los Alamos National Laboratory (505) 667-5061 Wallace's expertise is forensic seismology, a highly specialized discipline focusing on detection and quantification of nuclear tests. Terry C.

  4. ARM - What Causes Global Warming?

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    BeginnersWhat Causes Global Warming? Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans What Causes Global Warming? On earth we get energy from the sun's light. As you know, it gets hot outside if the sun is shining brightly on a summer day. The reason it warms up is because the earth is

  5. ARM - What is Global Warming?

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    is Global Warming? Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans What is Global Warming? Our earth's average temperature stays pretty much the same from year to year. Sometimes it gets very cold in the winter and very hot in the summer where you live. And some years may be a little hotter

  6. ARM - What is Global Warming?

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    is Global Warming? Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans What is Global Warming? The surface temperature of each of the planets in our solar system depends on a process called the heat budget. This budget, like any other type of budget, remains balanced if the amount (of energy)

  7. Insights from Smart Meters: Identifying Specific Actions, Behaviors...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Drive Savings in Behavior-Based Programs Insights from Smart Meters: Identifying Specific Actions, Behaviors, and Characteristics That Drive Savings in Behavior-Based Programs In ...

  8. Insights from modeling and observational evaluation of a precipitating...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Insights from modeling and observational evaluation of a precipitating continental cumulus event observed during the MC3E field campaign Citation Details In-Document Search Title: ...

  9. Plasma Turbulence Simulations Reveal Promising Insight for Fusion...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Insight for Fusion Energy By Argonne National Laboratory March 31, 2014 Tweet Widget Google Plus One Share on Facebook Simulation of microturbulence in a tokamak fusion device. ...

  10. Bob Jaffe, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Insights from...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Bob Jaffe, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Insights from the Energy Critical Elements Policy Study by the American Physical Society and Material Research Society Bob Jaffe, ...

  11. Towards a deeper insight into strongly correlated electron systems...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    and theory Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Towards a deeper insight into strongly correlated electron systems- the symbiosis between experiment and theory Authors: ...

  12. Going Global: Tight Oil Production

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    ... Thin target zone Disconnected target zones Controlled fractures GOING GLOBAL: TIGHT OIL PRODUCTION Tight Oil has Significant Energy Security Impacts Tight oil production growth ...

  13. Aviation Technology | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Read More GE Scientists Demonstrate Promising Anti-icing Nano Surfaces GE Global Research today presented new research findings on its nanotextured anti-icing surfaces. In ...

  14. Enlighten Your Research Global Program

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enlighten Your Research Global Program Science Engagement Move your data Programs & Workshops CrossConnects Workshop Series Operating Innovative Networks Workshop Series Enlighten...

  15. Aviation Technology | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Read More Ceramic Matrix Composites Improve Engine Efficiency Ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) are a breakthrough materials technology for jet engines that started at our Global ...

  16. Office of Global Material Security

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    at Wilton Park, United Kingdom, on the growing challenge of securing the global maritime supply chain. In total, 55 participants from 15 countries and 9 international...

  17. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  18. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  19. (Managing the global environment)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rayner, S.F.

    1989-10-03

    The conference was stimulated by concern that policy makers increasingly have to make environmental management decisions in the absence of solidly established scientific consensus about ecological processes and the consequences of human actions. Often, as in the case of climate change, some decisions may have to be made in the absence of information that is desirable but may not be available for years to come, if ever. Six topics were identified as running throughout the Congress. These were: the epistemology and history of the sciences or disciplines concerned with the environment, including the scientific basis of rationality and modes of dealing with uncertainty and complexity; the social, economic, and institutional conditions for the production of knowledge bearing on the environment, including the politics of research and the improvement of scientific data; the structuring and institutionalization of expert assessments on national and international levels, including the global distribution of expertise; the means of establishing scientific information, the role of the media in transmitting and processing knowledge about the environment, and the organization of public environmental debate; and decision making and management under conditions of uncertainty; and, finally the relationship between science and ethics. 13 refs.

  20. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  1. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised upward its projection for crude oil output in 2013 by 70,000 barrels per day and for next year by 190,000 barrels per day. U.S. oil production is now on track to average 7.5 million barrels per day this year and rise to 8.4 million barrels per day in 2014, according to EIA's latest monthly forecast.

  2. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    System A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast System Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Category: Radiation A new processor for evaluating the UV-B and UV-A radiation at the surface, based on modifications to the current shortwave radiation scheme of the ECMWF forecast system is described. Sensitivity studies of the UV surface irradiance and Erythemal Dose Rate to spectral resolution, representation and atmospheric

  3. Structural Design Feasibility Study for the Global Climate Experiment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lewin,K.F.; Nagy, J.

    2008-12-01

    Neon, Inc. is proposing to establish a Global Change Experiment (GCE) Facility to increase our understanding of how ecological systems differ in their vulnerability to changes in climate and other relevant global change drivers, as well as provide the mechanistic basis for forecasting ecological change in the future. The experimental design was initially envisioned to consist of two complementary components; (A) a multi-factor experiment manipulating CO{sub 2}, temperature and water availability and (B) a water balance experiment. As the design analysis and cost estimates progressed, it became clear that (1) the technical difficulties of obtaining tight temperature control and maintaining elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels within an enclosure were greater than had been expected and (2) the envisioned study would not fit into the expected budget envelope if this was done in a partially or completely enclosed structure. After discussions between NEON management, the GCE science team, and Keith Lewin, NEON, Inc. requested Keith Lewin to expand the scope of this design study to include open-field exposure systems. In order to develop the GCE design to the point where it can be presented within a proposal for funding, a feasibility study of climate manipulation structures must be conducted to determine design approaches and rough cost estimates, and to identify advantages and disadvantages of these approaches including the associated experimental artifacts. NEON, Inc requested this design study in order to develop concepts for the climate manipulation structures to support the NEON Global Climate Experiment. This study summarizes the design concepts considered for constructing and operating the GCE Facility and their associated construction, maintenance and operations costs. Comparisons and comments about experimental artifacts, construction challenges and operational uncertainties are provided to assist in selecting the final facility design. The overall goal of this report is to provide a cost and technological basis for selection of the appropriate GCE Facility design.

  4. Global production through 2005

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Foreman, N.E.

    1996-12-01

    Two companion studies released recently should provide great food for thought among geo-political strategists and various national governments. If predictions contained in these Petroconsultants studies of oil and gas production trends for the next 10 years are realized, there will be great repercussions for net exporters and importers, alike. After analyzing and predicting trends within each of the world`s significant producing nations for the 1996--2005 period, the crude oil and condensate report concludes tat global production will jump nearly 24%. By contrast, worldwide gas output will leap 40%. The cast of characters among producers and exporters that will benefit from these increases varies considerably for each fuel. On the oil side, Russia and the OPEC members, particularly the Persian Gulf nations, will be back in the driver`s seat in terms of affecting export and pricing patterns. On the gas side, the leading producers will be an interesting mix of mostly non-OPEC countries. The reemergence of Persian Gulf oil producers, coupled with an anticipated long-term decline among top non-OPEC producing nations should present a sobering picture to government planners within large net importers, such as the US. They are likely to find themselves in much the same supply trap as was experienced in the 1970s, only this time the dependence on foreign oil supplies will be much worse. Gas supplies will not be similarly constrained, and some substitution for oil is probable. Here, two articles, ``World oil industry is set for transition`` and ``Worldwide gas surges forward in next decade,`` present a summary of the findings detailed in Petroconsultants` recent studies.

  5. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  6. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  7. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  8. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  9. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  10. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  11. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  12. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    4 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ Bartholomew S Giangrande March 2016 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or

  13. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  14. doe sc arm 16 025 The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL_formatted

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    5 Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report MP Jensen SE Giangrande MJ Bartholomew April 2016 CLIMATE RESEARCH FACILITY DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any

  15. Global Simulation of Bioenergy Crop Productivity: Analytical framework and Case Study for Switchgrass

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nair, S. Surendran; Nichols, Jeff A. {Cyber Sciences}; Post, Wilfred M; Wang, Dali; Wullschleger, Stan D; Kline, Keith L; Wei, Yaxing; Singh, Nagendra; Kang, Shujiang

    2014-01-01

    Contemporary global assessments of the deployment potential and sustainability aspects of biofuel crops lack quantitative details. This paper describes an analytical framework capable of meeting the challenges associated with global scale agro-ecosystem modeling. We designed a modeling platform for bioenergy crops, consisting of five major components: (i) standardized global natural resources and management data sets, (ii) global simulation unit and management scenarios, (iii) model calibration and validation, (iv) high-performance computing (HPC) modeling, and (v) simulation output processing and analysis. A case study with the HPC- Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model (HPC-EPIC) to simulate a perennial bioenergy crop, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) and global biomass feedstock analysis on grassland demonstrates the application of this platform. The results illustrate biomass feedstock variability of switchgrass and provide insights on how the modeling platform can be expanded to better assess sustainable production criteria and other biomass crops. Feedstock potentials on global grasslands and within different countries are also shown. Future efforts involve developing databases of productivity, implementing global simulations for other bioenergy crops (e.g. miscanthus, energycane and agave), and assessing environmental impacts under various management regimes. We anticipated this platform will provide an exemplary tool and assessment data for international communities to conduct global analysis of biofuel biomass feedstocks and sustainability.

  16. Renewable Electricity: Insights for the Coming Decade

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stark, C.; Pless, J.; Logan, J.; Zhou, E.; Arent, D. J.

    2015-02-01

    A sophisticated set of renewable electricity (RE) generation technologies is now commercially available. Globally, RE captured approximately half of all capacity additions since 2011. The cost of RE is already competitive with fossil fuels in some areas around the world, and prices are anticipated to continue to decline over the next decade. RE options, led by wind and solar, are part of a suite of technologies and business solutions that are transforming electricity sectors around the world. Renewable deployment is expected to continue due to: increasingly competitive economics; favorable environmental characteristics such as low water use, and minimal local air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; complementary risk profiles when paired with natural gas generators; strong support from stakeholders. Despite this positive outlook for renewables, the collapse in global oil prices since mid-2014 and continued growth in natural gas supply in the United States--due to the development of low-cost shale gas--raise questions about the potential impacts of fossil fuel prices on RE. Today, oil plays a very minor role in the electricity sectors of most countries, so direct impacts on RE are likely to be minimal (except where natural gas prices are indexed on oil). Natural gas and RE generating options appear to be more serious competitors than oil and renewables. Low gas prices raise the hurdle for RE to be cost competitive. Additionally, although RE emits far less GHG than natural gas, both natural gas and RE offer the benefits of reducing carbon relative to coal and oil (see Section 4.1 for more detail on the GHG intensity of electricity technologies). However, many investors and decision makers are becoming aware of the complementary benefits of pairing natural gas and renewables to minimize risk of unstable fuel prices and maintain the reliability of electricity to the grid.

  17. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  18. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  19. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  20. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  1. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  2. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  3. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  4. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  5. Working at GE Global Research | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    products and working on lots of different things, and I was convinced that this ideal job didn't exist. I came to find out about the Sensor & Signal Analytics Lab at GE Global...

  6. Technical Education | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Technical Education at GE Global Research Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window) Share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Click to share (Opens in new window) Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window) Technical Education at GE Global Research Mark Vermilyea describes the Edison Engineering Development Program (EEDP) and its "A Course," which features lectures on Global Research work in GE's major business units,

  7. Global WINDPOWER 2004 Conference Proceedings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    anon.

    2004-06-01

    Over 350 papers and presentations provided at the conference give the latest and most up-to-date information on wind energy. Over 40 organizations worldwide helped sponsor the event, with the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) and the European Wind Energy Association leading the way. The sessions were arranged in policy, technical, and business tracks, plus panel discussions. Examples of sessions include: Improvements in blade and low wind speed technology; Financing in developing countries and emerging markets; Forecasting challenges and solutions; Grid access and transmission; Wind energy for farms, homes, and small businesses; Hybrid system technology needs; Experience with market support mechanisms; Future applications (hydrogen, storage, desalination, etc.); Siting, permitting and NIMBY issues; Wind turbine loading: conditions, predictions and measurements; Offshore policy and experience; and Transmission and utilities: making it work.

  8. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  9. Solar Global | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Republic Zip: 10100 Product: Czech PV developer and investor seeking partnership for its 200MW PV porfolio in the Czech Republic. References: Solar Global1 This article is a...

  10. Thermal Evaluation of the Honda Insight Battery Pack: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zolot, M.D.; Kelly, K.; Keyser, M.; Mihalic, M.; Pesaran, A.; Hieronymus, A.

    2001-06-18

    The hybrid vehicle test efforts at National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), with a focus on the Honda Insight's battery thermal management system, are presented. The performance of the Insight's high voltage NiMH battery pack was characterized by conducting in-vehicle dynamometer testing at Environmental Testing Corporation's high altitude dynamometer test facility, on-road testing in the Denver area, and out-of-car testing in NREL's Battery Thermal Management Laboratory. It is concluded that performance does vary considerably due to thermal conditions the pack encounters. The performance variations are due to both inherent NiMH characteristics, and the Insight's thermal management system.

  11. GS Global Biodiesel JV | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Biodiesel JV Jump to: navigation, search Name: GS Global Biodiesel JV Place: Iowa Product: JV between GS AgriFuels and Global Ethanol set-up to develop a plant that will...

  12. Decision insight into stakeholder conflict for ERN.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Siirola, John; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Benz, Zachary O.; Stansbury, Melanie; Richards, Elizabeth H.; Turnley, Jessica Glicken; Warrender, Christina E.; Morrow, James Dan

    2012-02-01

    Participatory modeling has become an important tool in facilitating resource decision making and dispute resolution. Approaches to modeling that are commonly used in this context often do not adequately account for important human factors. Current techniques provide insights into how certain human activities and variables affect resource outcomes; however, they do not directly simulate the complex variables that shape how, why, and under what conditions different human agents behave in ways that affect resources and human interactions related to them. Current approaches also do not adequately reveal how the effects of individual decisions scale up to have systemic level effects in complex resource systems. This lack of integration prevents the development of more robust models to support decision making and dispute resolution processes. Development of integrated tools is further hampered by the fact that collection of primary data for decision-making modeling is costly and time consuming. This project seeks to develop a new approach to resource modeling that incorporates both technical and behavioral modeling techniques into a single decision-making architecture. The modeling platform is enhanced by use of traditional and advanced processes and tools for expedited data capture. Specific objectives of the project are: (1) Develop a proof of concept for a new technical approach to resource modeling that combines the computational techniques of system dynamics and agent based modeling, (2) Develop an iterative, participatory modeling process supported with traditional and advance data capture techniques that may be utilized to facilitate decision making, dispute resolution, and collaborative learning processes, and (3) Examine potential applications of this technology and process. The development of this decision support architecture included both the engineering of the technology and the development of a participatory method to build and apply the technology. Stakeholder interaction with the model and associated data capture was facilitated through two very different modes of engagement, one a standard interface involving radio buttons, slider bars, graphs and plots, while the other utilized an immersive serious gaming interface. The decision support architecture developed through this project was piloted in the Middle Rio Grande Basin to examine how these tools might be utilized to promote enhanced understanding and decision-making in the context of complex water resource management issues. Potential applications of this architecture and its capacity to lead to enhanced understanding and decision-making was assessed through qualitative interviews with study participants who represented key stakeholders in the basin.

  13. Insight in the multilevel regulation of NER

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dijk, Madelon; Typas, Dimitris; Mullenders, Leon; Pines, Alex

    2014-11-15

    Nucleotide excision repair (NER) is a key component of the DNA damage response (DDR) and it is essential to safeguard genome integrity against genotoxic insults. The regulation of NER is primarily mediated by protein post-translational modifications (PTMs). The NER machinery removes a wide spectrum of DNA helix distorting lesions, including those induced by solar radiation, through two sub-pathways: global genome nucleotide excision repair (GG-NER) and transcription coupled nucleotide excision repair (TC-NER). Severe clinical consequences associated with inherited NER defects, including premature ageing, neurodegeneration and extreme cancer-susceptibility, underscore the biological relevance of NER. In the last two decades most of the core NER machinery has been elaborately described, shifting attention to molecular mechanisms that either facilitate NER in the context of chromatin or promote the timely and accurate interplay between NER factors and various post-translational modifications. In this review, we summarize and discuss the latest findings in NER. In particular, we focus on emerging factors and novel molecular mechanisms by which NER is regulated.

  14. Rising global temperatures accelerate drought-induced forest...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    professor, explain that their research, and more from scientists around the world, is forecasting that by 2100 most conifer forests should be heavily disturbed, if not gone, as...

  15. Global Celsius SL | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    search Name: Global Celsius SL Place: Madrid, Spain Sector: Wind energy Product: Spanish wind project developer. References: Global Celsius SL1 This article is a stub. You...

  16. Global Security | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    sector. Global Security Cooley joins Y-12's Global Security and Strategic Partnerships Manufacturing and Technical Services Nuclear Material Recovery Nuclear Detection and...

  17. Digilog Global Environmental LLC | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Digilog Global Environmental LLC Jump to: navigation, search Name: Digilog Global Environmental LLC Place: Chicago, Illinois Zip: 60606 Product: TradeLink is registered as a...

  18. Global Alternative Fuels | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Alternative Fuels Jump to: navigation, search Name: Global Alternative Fuels Place: El Paso, Texas Zip: 79922 Product: Global Alternative Fuels processes virgin oils (palm,...

  19. NERSC Calculations Provide Independent Confirmation of Global...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Calculations Provide Independent Confirmation of Global Land Warming Since 1901 NERSC Calculations Provide Independent Confirmation of Global Land Warming Since 1901 September 9, ...

  20. Global Power Solutions LLC | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Power Solutions LLC Jump to: navigation, search Name: Global Power Solutions LLC Place: Colorado Zip: CO 80401 Sector: Geothermal energy Product: String representation...

  1. Global Solar Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name: Global Solar Energy Place: Tucson, AZ Website: www.globalsolarenergy.com References: Global Solar Energy1 Information About Partnership...

  2. Sunrise Global Solar Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Solar Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name: Sunrise Global Solar Energy Place: Taoyuan County, Taiwan Zip: 330 Sector: Solar Product: Engaged in solar monocrystalline...

  3. Sky Solar Global SA | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global SA Jump to: navigation, search Name: Sky Solar Global SA Place: Madrid, Spain Zip: 28046 Product: Project developer, and distributor of Chinese PV modules to Spain and...

  4. Global Climate Change Institute | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Change Institute Jump to: navigation, search Name: Global Climate Change Institute Place: Tsinghua University, Beijing Municipality, China Zip: 100084 Product: Global Climate...

  5. Brazil Interministerial Commission on Global Climate Change ...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Interministerial Commission on Global Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Name: Brazil Interministerial Commission on Global Climate Change Place: Distrito Federal...

  6. Eco Fuel Global | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Fuel Global Jump to: navigation, search Name: Eco-Fuel Global Place: California, California Zip: 94596 Sector: Services Product: California-based environmental engineering and...

  7. Carbon Markets Global Ltd | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Markets Global Ltd Jump to: navigation, search Name: Carbon Markets Global Ltd Place: London, United Kingdom Zip: NW4 2HT Product: Assist project originators develop and finance...

  8. The Global Carbon Bank | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Carbon Bank Jump to: navigation, search Name: The Global Carbon Bank Place: Houston, Texas Zip: 77025 Sector: Carbon, Services Product: Houston-based provider of advisory...

  9. Sustainable Solutions to Global Energy Challenges | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solutions to Global Energy Challenges Sustainable Solutions to Global Energy Challenges ... Deployment Carl Wolf, Business Development Manager, LanzaTech PDF icon ...

  10. Structural Insight into the Regulation of the SNARE Assembly...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Insight into the Regulation of the SNARE Assembly by the Cell Polarity Protein Sro7 The cells that comprise many tissues are polarized, meaning that they have distinct 'sides' with...

  11. Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Print XPD helicase is an enzyme that unwinds the DNA double helix; it is one component of an essential repair mechanism that maintains the...

  12. Insights from Smart Meters: The Potential for Peak Hour Savings...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Insights from Smart Meters: The Potential for Peak Hour Savings from Behavior-Based Programs This report focuses on one example of the value that analysis of this data can provide: ...

  13. Worldwide Trends in Energy Use and Efficiency: Key Insights from...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Trends in Energy Use and Efficiency: Key Insights from International Energy Agency (IEA) Indicator Analysis in Support of the Group of Eight (G8) Plan of Action Jump to:...

  14. Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Print XPD helicase is an enzyme that unwinds the DNA double helix; it is one component of an essential repair mechanism...

  15. Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Print Wednesday, 25 February 2009 00:00 XPD helicase is an enzyme that unwinds the DNA double helix; it is one component of an essential repair mechanism that maintains the integrity of DNA. XPD is unique, however, in that pinpoint mutations of this single protein are responsible for three different human diseases: in xeroderma pigmentosum (XP), extreme sensitivity to sunlight

  16. Insight into Alzheimer's, cancer, anemia gleaned from ribosome research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Insights from ribosome research Insight into Alzheimer's, cancer, anemia gleaned from ribosome research Groundbreaking study of the human ribosome reveals tiny molecular machine is more versatile than previously understood December 22, 2014 The newly discovered rolling movement shown in (A) three-dimensional cryo-electron microscopy image of ribosome, and (B) computer-generated atomic-resolution model of the human ribosome consistent with microscopy. Figure 3. The newly discovered rolling

  17. High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights Print Wednesday, 26 February 2014 00:00 Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a remarkable class of relatively new materials that exist as a subclass of a larger group called coordination networks. MOFs have shown promise in a variety of applications ranging from gas storage to ion exchange. The materials are comprised of organic linkers that bridge discrete metal building units. Accurate

  18. Voices of Experience | Insights into Advanced Distribution Management

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Systems (February 2015) | Department of Energy Experience | Insights into Advanced Distribution Management Systems (February 2015) Voices of Experience | Insights into Advanced Distribution Management Systems (February 2015) The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 spurred investments in smart grid technology and programs at utilities across the country. The Smart Grid Investment Grant program and Smart Grid Demonstration projects that it funded provided unprecedented

  19. Voices of Experience: Insights on Smart Grid Customer Engagement (July

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    2013) | Department of Energy Experience: Insights on Smart Grid Customer Engagement (July 2013) Voices of Experience: Insights on Smart Grid Customer Engagement (July 2013) The success of the Smart Grid will depend in part on consumers taking a more proactive role in managing their energy use. This document is the result of a nine-month effort to compile information on the successful approaches used by utilities to engage customers regarding smart grid technology deployments. Voices of

  20. Voices of Experience: New Guide Offers Utilities' Insights on Engaging

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    with Smart Grid Customers | Department of Energy Voices of Experience: New Guide Offers Utilities' Insights on Engaging with Smart Grid Customers Voices of Experience: New Guide Offers Utilities' Insights on Engaging with Smart Grid Customers July 11, 2013 - 10:44am Addthis Eric Lightner Eric Lightner Director of the Federal Smart Grid Task Force in the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability The smart grid is creating numerous new opportunities for consumers to better manage

  1. Structural insights into [mu]-opioid receptor activation (Journal Article)

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    | SciTech Connect Structural insights into [mu]-opioid receptor activation Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Structural insights into [mu]-opioid receptor activation Authors: Huang, Weijiao ; Manglik, Aashish ; Venkatakrishnan, A.J. ; Laeremans, Toon ; Feinberg, Evan N. ; Sanborn, Adrian L. ; Kato, Hideaki E. ; Livingston, Kathryn E. ; Thorsen, Thor S. ; Kling, Ralf C. ; Granier, Sébastien ; Gmeiner, Peter ; Husbands, Stephen M. ; Traynor, John R. ; Weis, William I. ; Steyaert, Jan

  2. Nuclear magnetic resonance offers new insights into Pu 239

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Nuclear magnetic resonance offers new insights into Pu 239 Nuclear magnetic resonance offers new insights into Pu 239 Fingerprint of element found by LANL/Japanese team. May 29, 2012 How would the detonation of a nuclear energy source afffect an incoming asteroid? Georgios Koutroulakis and H. Yasuoka in the condensed-matter NMR lab at Los Alamos National Laboratory after having observed the magnetic resonance signal of Pu 239 for the first time. Get Expertise Scientist Eric Bauer Condensed

  3. A Carbon Flux Super Site. New Insights and Innovative

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Atmosphere-Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Measurements and Modeling (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect A Carbon Flux Super Site. New Insights and Innovative Atmosphere-Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Measurements and Modeling Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Carbon Flux Super Site. New Insights and Innovative Atmosphere-Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Measurements and Modeling This final report presents the main activities and results of the project "A Carbon Flux Super Site: New

  4. Anthropogenic plutonium-244 in the environment: Insights into plutonium's

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    longest-lived isotope (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Anthropogenic plutonium-244 in the environment: Insights into plutonium's longest-lived isotope Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Anthropogenic plutonium-244 in the environment: Insights into plutonium's longest-lived isotope Authors: Armstrong, Christopher R. ; Brant, Heather A. ; Nuessle, Patterson R. ; Hall, Gregory ; Cadieux, James R. Publication Date: 2016-02-22 OSTI Identifier: 1252475 Report Number(s):

  5. Jefferson Lab holds educational, insightful science lectures in June |

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Jefferson Lab holds educational, insightful science lectures in June Jefferson Lab holds educational, insightful science lectures in June June 11, 2007 Jefferson Lab is hosting two free, public lectures on consecutive evenings in June. The Monday, June 18, presentation highlights the genius and scientific discoveries of Benjamin Franklin. By establishing that lightning is electrical and that electricity involves charge, Franklin's research opened the way for many new discoveries. Fred Dylla,

  6. Katharine Page: Atomic-level insights for better materials

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Katharine Page: Atomic-level insights for better materials Alumni Link: Opportunities, News and Resources for Former Employees Latest Issue:September 2015 all issues All Issues » submit Katharine Page: Atomic-level insights for better materials Page's research supports materials' advances that could have wide-ranging impact, investigating, manipulating and manufacturing nano-particles. May 1, 2014 Katherine Page Katherine Page Contact Linda Anderman Email A Love for Science Impassioned by

  7. ALS Gives Chevron Scientists New Insights into Corrosion Resistance

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ALS Gives Chevron Scientists New Insights into Corrosion Resistance ALS Gives Chevron Scientists New Insights into Corrosion Resistance Print Thursday, 25 July 2013 13:44 In the chemical environments common in energy production plants, steel pipes and equipment can accumulate layers of iron sulfide, some of which are corrosion resistant and provide protection to the steel surface. Understanding how operating conditions affect steel surface layers can improve corrosion rate estimates, decreasing

  8. Crystal Structures of Phosphite Dehydrogenase Provide Insights into

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Nicotinamide Cofactor Regeneration (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Crystal Structures of Phosphite Dehydrogenase Provide Insights into Nicotinamide Cofactor Regeneration Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Crystal Structures of Phosphite Dehydrogenase Provide Insights into Nicotinamide Cofactor Regeneration The enzyme phosphite dehydrogenase (PTDH) catalyzes the NAD{sup +}-dependent conversion of phosphite to phosphate and represents

  9. Insights into Methyltransferase Specificity and Bioactivity of Derivatives

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    of the Antibiotic Plantazolicin (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Journal Article: Insights into Methyltransferase Specificity and Bioactivity of Derivatives of the Antibiotic Plantazolicin Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Insights into Methyltransferase Specificity and Bioactivity of Derivatives of the Antibiotic Plantazolicin Authors: Hao, Yue ; Blair, Patricia M. ; Sharma, Abhishek ; Mitchell, Douglas A. ; Nair, Satish K. [1] + Show Author Affiliations (UIUC) Publication Date:

  10. Atomistic insights into aqueous corrosion of copper. (Journal Article) |

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    SciTech Connect Atomistic insights into aqueous corrosion of copper. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Atomistic insights into aqueous corrosion of copper. Corrosion is a fundamental problem in electrochemistry and represents a mode of failure of technologically important materials. Understanding the basic mechanism of aqueous corrosion of metals such as Cu in presence of halide ions is hence essential. Using molecular dynamics simulations incorporating reactive force-field

  11. Ribosome research in atomic detail offers potential insights into cancer,

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    anemia, Alzheimer's Ribosome research offers potential insights into cancer Ribosome research in atomic detail offers potential insights into cancer, anemia, Alzheimer's A groundbreaking study of the human ribosome is revealing that the tiny molecular machine is more versatile than previously understood. July 3, 2014 Figure 3. The newly discovered rolling movement shown in (A) three-dimensional cryo-electron microscopy image of ribosome, and (B) computer-generated atomic-resolution model of

  12. Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights Print Wednesday, 27 January 2010 00:00 Cells depend on contact with their outside environment in order to thrive. Two examples illustrate why: In one, information needed to guide cellular processes is constantly transmitted across cell membranes by specialized proteins, and in the other, maintaining the right gradient of ions across the membrane is

  13. Towards a deeper insight into strongly correlated electron systems- the

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    symbiosis between experiment and theory (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Towards a deeper insight into strongly correlated electron systems- the symbiosis between experiment and theory Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Towards a deeper insight into strongly correlated electron systems- the symbiosis between experiment and theory Authors: Fischer, Peter Publication Date: 2007-03-01 OSTI Identifier: 926613 Report Number(s): LBNL--63253 R&D Project: 509201; BnR: KC0202020 DOE

  14. Global Cooling: Effect of Urban Albedo on Global Temperature

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Akbari, Hashem; Menon, Surabi; Rosenfeld, Arthur

    2007-05-22

    In many urban areas, pavements and roofs constitute over 60% of urban surfaces (roof 20-25%, pavements about 40%). The roof and the pavement albedo can be increased by about 0.25 and 0.10, respectively, resulting in a net albedo increase for urban areas of about 0.1. Many studies have demonstrated building cooling-energy savings in excess of 20% upon raising roof reflectivity from an existing 10-20% to about 60%. We estimate U.S. potential savings in excess of $1 billion (B) per year in net annual energy bills. Increasing albedo of urban surfaces can reduce the summertime urban temperature and improve the urban air quality. Increasing the urban albedo has the added benefit of reflecting more of the incoming global solar radiation and countering the effect of global warming. We estimate that increasing albedo of urban areas by 0.1 results in an increase of 3 x 10{sup -4} in Earth albedo. Using a simple global model, the change in air temperature in lowest 1.8 km of the atmosphere is estimated at 0.01K. Modelers predict a warming of about 3K in the next 60 years (0.05K/year). Change of 0.1 in urban albedo will result in 0.01K global cooling, a delay of {approx}0.2 years in global warming. This 0.2 years delay in global warming is equivalent to 10 Gt reduction in CO2 emissions.

  15. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  16. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  17. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  18. Global Climate Change and Agriculture

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Izaurralde, Roberto C.

    2009-01-01

    The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released in 2007 significantly increased our confidence about the role that humans play in forcing climate change. There is now a high degree of confidence that the (a) current atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) far exceed those of the pre-industrial era, (b) global increases in CO2 arise mainly from fossil fuel use and land use change while those of CH4 and N2O originate primarily from agricultural activities, and (c) the net effect of human activities since 1750 has led to a warming of the lower layers of the atmosphere, with an increased radiative forcing of 1.6 W m-2. Depending on the scenario of human population growth and global development, mean global temperatures could rise between 1.8 and 4.0 C by the end of the 21st century.

  19. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  20. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.

  1. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOE/SC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ Bartholomew S Giangrande March 2016 CLIMATE RESEARCH FACILITY DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy,

  2. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  3. Global EV Outlook | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Find Another Tool FIND TRANSPORTATION TOOLS Key takeaways and insights include landscape analysis of electric vehicle (EV) stocksales and charging station deployment....

  4. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    7a. Space Heating by Census Region and Climate Zone, Million U.S. Households, 1993 Space Heating Characteristics RSE Column Factor: Total Census Region Climate Zone RSE Row Factors Northeast Midwest South West Fewer than 2,000 CDD and -- More than 2,000 CDD and Few- er than 4,000 HDD More than 7,000 HDD 5,500 to 7,000 HDD 4,000 to 5,499 HDD Few- er than 4,000 HDD 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Total ................................................. 96.6 19.5 23.3 33.5 20.4 8.7 26.5

  5. Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    introduction in 1992 of an American-made truck with a fully factory-installed/war- ranted liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) engine represents another "Ford first" in the alternative fuel arena. Now the company has introduced an LPG- powered F-700, a medium/heavy- duty truck. According to Tom Steckel, Ford's medium-duty marketing man- ager, Ford's latest sales figures already prove the alternative fuel F-700's popularity. With a little more than 10 months of the model year finished, Ford

  6. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  7. Global change: Acronyms and abbreviations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woodard, C.T.; Stoss, F.W.

    1995-05-01

    This list of acronyms and abbreviations is compiled to provide the user with a ready reference to dicipher the linguistic initialisms and abridgements for the study of global change. The terms included in this first edition were selected from a wide variety of sources: technical reports, policy documents, global change program announcements, newsletters, and other periodicals. The disciplinary interests covered by this document include agriculture, atmospheric science, ecology, environmental science, oceanography, policy science, and other fields. In addition to its availability in hard copy, the list of acronyms and abbreviations is available in DOS-formatted diskettes and through CDIAC`s anonymous File Transfer Protocol (FTP) area on the Internet.

  8. Global warming: A Northwest perspective

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scott, M.J.; Counts, C.A.

    1990-02-01

    The Northwest Power Planning Council convened a symposium in Olympia, Washington, on the subject of global climate change ( the greenhouse effect'') and its potential for affecting the Pacific Northwest. The symposium was organized in response to a need by the Power Council to understand global climate change and its potential impacts on resource planning and fish and wildlife planning for the region, as well as a need to understand national policy developing toward climate change and the Pacific Northwest's role in it. 40 figs., 15 tabs.

  9. Global Threat Reduction Initiative | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    An overview of the Global Threat Reduction Initiative, U.S.-Origin Nuclear Fuel Removals.

  10. Solar wind samples give insight into birth of solar system

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Solar and wind power advancing U.S. electricity generation from wind and solar energy show no signs of slowing down. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects wind-powered generation to grow by 19 percent this year and rise another 8 percent in 2014. Congress's extension in January of a tax credit for electricity producers that use renewables is behind the wind power boost. Solar generation in the electric power sector is expected to grow even more, rising

  11. Global strategies for environmental issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-01-01

    This is the 19th Annual NAEP conference proceedings, containing abstracts of oral presentations and poster sessions. Broad areas covered include the following: Environmental Management; Biodiversity/sustainable development; Gulf Regional Issues; Environmental ethics/equity; NEPA workshop and symposium; International environmental issues; global Environmental Effects; Risk Assessment; and Environmental effects of nuclear waste management.

  12. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  13. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  14. Global

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Co-Hosts "Climate Risk Forum: Bridging Climate Science and Actuarial Practice" This Fall event was a follow-up to a Climate and Environment Program Area meeting with the California governor's office in July. There, the California Insurance Commissioner, Dave Jones, recognized the value of Sandia's climate-impact modeling and analysis work, led by Stephen Conrad (manager of Sandia's Resilience and Regulatory Effects Dept.), and wanted to connect that [...] By

  15. Estimates of the Global Indirect Energy-Use Emission Impacts of USA Biofuel Policy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oladosu, Gbadebo A

    2012-01-01

    This paper evaluates the indirect energy-use emission implications of increases in the use of biofuels in the USA between 2001 and 2010 as mandates within a dynamic global computable general equilibrium model. The study incorporates explicit markets for biofuels, petroleum and other fossil fuels, and accounts for interactions among all sectors of an 18-region global economy. It considers bilateral trade, as well as the dynamics of capital allocation and investment. Simulation results show that the biofuel mandates in the USA generate an overall reduction in global energy use and emissions over the simulation period from 2001 to 2030. Consequently, the indirect energy-use emission change or emission leakage under the mandate is negative. That is, global emission reductions are larger than the direct emission savings from replacing petroleum with biofuels under the USA RFS2 over the last decade. Under our principal scenario this enhanced the direct emission reduction from biofuels by about 66%. The global change in lifecycle energy-use emissions for this scenario was estimated to be about 93 million tons of CO2e in 2010, 45 million tons of CO2e in 2020, and an increase of 5 million tons of CO2e in 2030, relative to the baseline scenario. Sensitivity results of six alternative scenarios provided additional insights into the pattern of the regional and global effects of biofuel mandates on energy-use emissions.

  16. Global Pathways Analysis Tool (GPAT)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Global Pathways Analysis Tool (GPAT) (Sandia National Laboratories) Objectives Calculate least-cost pathways for hydrogen supply for eight participating countries: France, Germany, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Denmark, Japan, and the United States (U.S. further divided into eight regions to allow for additional regional analysis; additional countries could be added as data becomes available). The objective is to match country level demands for hydrogen with lowest cost supply options for each country.

  17. Global Warming and Human Health

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    American Geophysical Union Global Warming and Human Health WHEN: Jul 27, 2015 5:30 PM - 6:30 PM WHERE: Eldorado Hotel 309 W San Francisco Street, Santa Fe SPEAKER: Robert Davis, University of Virginia CONTACT: Shermonta Grant (202) 777-7329 CATEGORY: Community Science TYPE: Lecture INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description The main reason we are concerned about human-induced climate change is that climate shifts might impact the health of Earth's populace. These impacts can be direct, such as

  18. Implementation of global energy sustainability

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grob, G.R.

    1998-02-01

    The term energy sustainability emerged from the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio 1992, when Agenda 21 was formulated and the Global Energy Charter proclaimed. Emission reductions, total energy costing, improved energy efficiency, and sustainable energy systems are the four fundamental principles of the charter. These principles can be implemented in the proposed financial, legal, technical, and education framework. Much has been done in many countries toward the implementation of the Global Energy Charter, but progress has not been fast enough to ease the disastrous effects of the too many ill-conceived energy systems on the environment, climate, and health. Global warming is accelerating, and pollution is worsening, especially in developing countries with their hunger for energy to meet the needs of economic development. Asian cities are now beating all pollution records, and greenhouse gases are visibly changing the climate with rising sea levels, retracting glaciers, and record weather disasters. This article presents why and how energy investments and research money have to be rechanneled into sustainable energy, rather than into the business-as-usual of depleting, unsustainable energy concepts exceeding one trillion dollars per year. This largest of all investment sectors needs much more attention.

  19. Selecting Solar. Insights into Residential Photovoltaic (PV) Quote Variation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davidson, Carolyn; Margolis, Robert

    2015-10-01

    This analysis leverages available data from EnergySage, an online solar marketplace, to offer the first data-driven characterization of quote variation faced by prospective PV customers, lending early insight into the decisions customers face once they have initial buy-in.

  20. Proteins' Amazing Origami Powers: Insight for Potential Disease Treatments

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Better knowledge of protein folding could in turn provide more insight into the diseases associated with malformed proteins, such as Alzheimer's and Cystic Fibrosis, and potential fixes for those malformations. That in turn could lead to new possibilities for new treatments.

  1. Department of Energy award DE-SC0004164 Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reno Harnish

    2011-08-16

    The Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts symposium was attended by senior policy makers and distinguished scientists. The juxtaposition of these communities was creative and fruitful. They acknowledged they were speaking past each other. Scientists were urged to tell policy makers about even improbable outcomes while articulating clearly the uncertainties around the outcomes. As one policy maker put it, we are accustomed to making these types of decisions. These points were captured clearly in an article that appeared on the New York Times website and can be found with other conference materials most easily on our website, www.scripps.ucsd.edu/cens/. The symposium, generously supported by the NOAA/JIMO, benefitted the public by promoting scientifically informed decision making and by the transmission of objective information regarding climate change and national security.

  2. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  3. Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennock, K.

    2012-10-01

    AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

  4. HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST CATEGORY Total Procurement Total SB Small Disad. Bus Woman-Owned SB Hub-Zone SB Veteran-Owned SB Service Disabled Vet. SB FY 2009 Dollars Goal (projected) $183,949,920 $82,690,000 $4,550,000 $8,829,596 $3,370,000 $5,025,000 $460,000 FY 2009 Dollars Accomplished $143,846,731 $68,174,398 $9,247,214 $11,333,905 $4,979,858 $6,713,791 $1,612,136 FY 2009 % Goal 45.0% 2.5% 4.8% 1.8% 2.7% 0.25% FY

  5. The Global Innovation Commons | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Virginia. References "The Global Innovation Commons" Global Innovation Commons (G.I.C.) A patent is a contract between an inventor and the public. In order to promote and...

  6. Oil & Gas Technology Center | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Global Research Oil & Gas Technology Center Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new ... GE Global Research Oil & Gas Technology Center Mark Little, SVP and chief technology ...

  7. Global Energy Network Institute | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":"" Hide Map References: Global Energy Network Institute Web Site1 This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. Global Energy...

  8. Contour Global L P | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global L P Jump to: navigation, search Name: Contour Global L.P. Place: New York, New York Zip: 10022 Sector: Renewable Energy Product: New York-based energy development company,...

  9. T Solar Global SA | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Global SA Jump to: navigation, search Name: T-Solar Global SA Place: Madrid, Spain Zip: 28042 Product: Spain-based thin-film silicon PV cell and module maker, using Applied...

  10. Global Atlas | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Atlas Home Graham7781's picture Submitted by Graham7781(2017) Super contributor 11 February, 2013 - 15:18 IRENA launches global atlas of renewable energy potential data...

  11. Ardour Global Indexes LLC | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Name: Ardour Global Indexes LLC Place: New York City, New York Zip: 10016 Product: New-York based company that manages the Ardour Global Indexes, a set of alternative energy...

  12. Crest Global Green Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Green Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name: Crest Global Green Energy Place: County Durham, England, United Kingdom Zip: SR7 7EU Product: UK-based biofuel company with...

  13. Think Green Global Inc | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Green Global Inc Jump to: navigation, search Name: Think Green Global, Inc. Place: New York, New York Zip: 10010 Sector: Renewable Energy Product: New York-based investment bank...

  14. Mandarin Global Carbon Ltd | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Mandarin Global Carbon Ltd Jump to: navigation, search Name: Mandarin Global Carbon Ltd Place: Londaon, Greater London, United Kingdom Zip: W1S 1TD Sector: Carbon, Hydro Product:...

  15. Global Wind Energy Council | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Energy Council Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Global Wind Energy Council Name: Global Wind Energy Council Address: Wind Power House Rue d'Arlon 80 Place: Brussels, Belgium Phone...

  16. ARM - Will There be Increased Global Precipitation?

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Will There be Increased Global Precipitation? Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Will There be Increased Global Precipitation? Very probable. Along with an increase in air temperature might be an increase in evaporation, which could lead to greater global precipitation. The

  17. Promoting Sustainability on a Global Scale

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Promoting Sustainability on a Global Scale Martina Otto, Head of the Policy Unit, United Nations Environment Programme

  18. GE Capital Partnership | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Global Research and GE Capital: Middle Market Collaboration Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window) Share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Click to share (Opens in new window) Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window) Global Research and GE Capital: Middle Market Collaboration In 2013, a partnering initiative between Global Research and GE Capital resulted in dozens of middle market companies collaborating with Global Research

  19. The NERSC Global File System

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NERSC Global File System (NGF) Jason Hick jhick@lbl.gov Storage Systems Group Lead http://www.nersc.gov/nusers/systems/NGF/ CAS2K11 September 11-14, 2011 * Operated by University of California for the US Department of Energy * NERSC serves a large population - Approximately 4000 users, 400 projects, 500 codes - Focus on "unique" resources * High-end computing systems * High-end storage systems - Large shared GPFS (a.k.a. NGF) - Large archive (a.k.a. HPSS) * Interface to high speed

  20. Are we seeing global warming?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hasselmann, K.

    1997-05-09

    Despite considerable progress, the question of whether the observed gradual increase in global mean temperature over the last century is indeed caused by human activities or is simply an expression of natural climate variation on a larger spatial and temporal scales remains a controversial issue. To answer this question three things are needed: prediction of the anthropogenic climate change signal; determination of the natural climate variability noise; and computation of the signal-to-noise ratio and test of whether the ratio exceeds some predefined statistical detection threshold. This article discusses all these issues and the uncertainties involved in getting definitive answers. 12 refs., 1 fig.

  1. Malaria Researchers Find Weakness in Global Killer

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Office of Science research at Washington University in St. Louis could lead to new insights which might eventually lead to new medicines to protect against malaria -- or stop it all together.

  2. Economic Globalization and a Nuclear Renaissance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wood, Thomas W.; Johnson, Wayne L.; Parker, Brian M.

    2001-10-22

    The phenomenon of globalization has become increasingly well recognized, documented, and analyzed in the last several years. Globalization, the integration of markets and intra-firm competition on a worldwide basis, involves complex behavioral and mindset changes within a firm that facilitate global competition. The changes revolve around efficient information flow and rapid deployment of technology. The objective of this report is to examine the probable characteristics of a global nuclear renaissance and its broad implications for industry structure and export control relative to nuclear technology. The question of how a modern renaissance would affect the trend toward globalization of the nuclear industry is addressed.

  3. Changes in Moisture Flux over the Tibetan Plateau during 1979-2011: Insights from a High Resolution Simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gao, Yanhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Zhang, Yongxin; Cuo, Lan

    2015-05-15

    Net precipitation (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P-E) changes between 1979 and 2011 from a high resolution regional climate simulation and its reanalysis forcing are analyzed over the Tibet Plateau (TP) and compared to the global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) product. The high resolution simulation better resolves precipitation changes than its coarse resolution forcing, which contributes dominantly to the improved P-E change in the regional simulation compared to the global reanalysis. Hence, the former may provide better insights about the drivers of P-E changes. The mechanism behind the P-E changes is explored by decomposing the column integrated moisture flux convergence into thermodynamic, dynamic, and transient eddy components. High-resolution climate simulation improves the spatial pattern of P-E changes over the best available global reanalysis. High-resolution climate simulation also facilitates new and substantial findings regarding the role of thermodynamics and transient eddies in P-E changes reflected in observed changes in major river basins fed by runoff from the TP. The analysis revealed the contrasting convergence/divergence changes between the northwestern and southeastern TP and feedback through latent heat release as an important mechanism leading to the mean P-E changes in the TP.

  4. Engineering change in global climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schneider, S.H.

    1996-12-31

    {open_quotes}With increased public focus on global warming and in the wake of the intense heat waves, drought, fires, and super-hurricanes that occurred in 1988 and 1989, interest in geoengineering has surged,{close_quotes} says Stephen H. Schneider, professor of biological science at Stanford University in Stanford, California. One scheme set forth in a National Research Council report proposes using 16-inch naval guns to fire aerosol shells into the stratosphere in hopes of offsetting {open_quotes}the radiative effects of increasing carbon dioxide,{close_quotes} Schneider says. Schneider, however, would prefer that we {open_quotes}seek measures that can cure our global {open_quote}addiction{close_quote} to polluting practices.{close_quotes} Rather than playing God, he says we should {open_quotes}stick to being human and pursue problem - solving methods currently within our grasp.{close_quotes} Such strategies include efforts to promote energy efficiency and reduce our reliance on automobiles.

  5. The Energy Efficiency Potential of Global Transport to 2050 ...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    The Energy Efficiency Potential of Global Transport to 2050 The Energy Efficiency Potential of Global Transport to 2050 Broad view of sustainability of global transportation PDF ...

  6. Wanted: Global Clean Energy Partners | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Super contributor 24 February, 2010 - 13:51 imported OpenEI Global climate change. Global sustainability. Global economic development. There's no doubt about it-if the...

  7. CO2 Global Solutions International | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Solutions International Jump to: navigation, search Name: CO2 Global Solutions International Place: Madrid, Spain Zip: 28001 Sector: Carbon Product: CO2 Global Solutions is...

  8. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the flying brick technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  9. Growth in global oil inventories slows, drawdown in stocks expected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    to stronger growth in world oil demand, with ... In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information ... will be led by stronger fuel consumption in China and India. ...

  10. Effects of soot-induced snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western United States based on Weather Research and Forecasting chemistry and regional climate simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qian, Yun; Gustafson, William I.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ghan, Steven J.

    2009-02-14

    Radiative forcing induced by soot on snow is a major anthropogenic forcing affecting the global climate. However, it is uncertain how the soot-induced snow albedo perturbation affects regional snowpack and the hydrological cycle. In this study we simulated the deposition of soot aerosol on snow and investigated the resulting impact on snowpack and the surface water budget in the western United States. A yearlong simulation was performed using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) to determine an annual budget of soot deposition, followed by two regional climate simulations using WRF in meteorology-only mode, with and without the soot-induced snow albedo perturbations. The chemistry simulation shows large spatial variability in soot deposition that reflects the localized emissions and the influence of the complex terrain. The soot-induced snow albedo perturbations increase the net solar radiation flux at the surface during late winter to early spring, increase the surface air temperature, reduce snow water equivalent amount, and lead to reduced snow accumulation and less spring snowmelt. These effects are stronger over the central Rockies and southern Alberta, where soot deposition and snowpack overlap the most. The indirect forcing of soot accelerates snowmelt and alters stream flows, including a trend toward earlier melt dates in the western United States. The soot-induced albedo reduction initiates a positive feedback process whereby dirty snow absorbs more solar radiation, heating the surface and warming the air. This warming causes reduced snow depth and fraction, which further reduces the regional surface albedo for the snow covered regions. Our simulations indicate that the change of maximum snow albedo induced by soot on snow contributes to 60% of the net albedo reduction over the central Rockies. Snowpack reduction accounts for the additional 40%.

  11. Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Print XPD helicase is an enzyme that unwinds the DNA double helix; it is one component of an essential repair mechanism that maintains the integrity of DNA. XPD is unique, however, in that pinpoint mutations of this single protein are responsible for three different human diseases: in xeroderma pigmentosum (XP), extreme sensitivity to sunlight promotes cancer; Cockayne syndrome (CS) involves stunted growth and premature aging;

  12. Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Print XPD helicase is an enzyme that unwinds the DNA double helix; it is one component of an essential repair mechanism that maintains the integrity of DNA. XPD is unique, however, in that pinpoint mutations of this single protein are responsible for three different human diseases: in xeroderma pigmentosum (XP), extreme sensitivity to sunlight promotes cancer; Cockayne syndrome (CS) involves stunted growth and premature aging;

  13. Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Print XPD helicase is an enzyme that unwinds the DNA double helix; it is one component of an essential repair mechanism that maintains the integrity of DNA. XPD is unique, however, in that pinpoint mutations of this single protein are responsible for three different human diseases: in xeroderma pigmentosum (XP), extreme sensitivity to sunlight promotes cancer; Cockayne syndrome (CS) involves stunted growth and premature aging;

  14. Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Print XPD helicase is an enzyme that unwinds the DNA double helix; it is one component of an essential repair mechanism that maintains the integrity of DNA. XPD is unique, however, in that pinpoint mutations of this single protein are responsible for three different human diseases: in xeroderma pigmentosum (XP), extreme sensitivity to sunlight promotes cancer; Cockayne syndrome (CS) involves stunted growth and premature aging;

  15. Hewlett Packard Labs Gains Insights with Innovative ALS Research Tools

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Hewlett Packard Labs Gains Insights with Innovative ALS Research Tools Print For the past eight years, Hewlett Packard Labs, the central research organization of Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), has been using cutting-edge ALS techniques to advance some of their most promising technological research. Hewlett Packard Labs researchers, including Suhas Kumar, Catherine Graves, and John Paul Strachan, recently made the cover of Applied Physics Letters with an ALS-based project that revealed key

  16. High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights Print Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a remarkable class of relatively new materials that exist as a subclass of a larger group called coordination networks. MOFs have shown promise in a variety of applications ranging from gas storage to ion exchange. The materials are comprised of organic linkers that bridge discrete metal building units. Accurate structural knowledge is key to the understanding of the applicability of these materials,

  17. High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights Print Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a remarkable class of relatively new materials that exist as a subclass of a larger group called coordination networks. MOFs have shown promise in a variety of applications ranging from gas storage to ion exchange. The materials are comprised of organic linkers that bridge discrete metal building units. Accurate structural knowledge is key to the understanding of the applicability of these materials,

  18. High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights Print Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a remarkable class of relatively new materials that exist as a subclass of a larger group called coordination networks. MOFs have shown promise in a variety of applications ranging from gas storage to ion exchange. The materials are comprised of organic linkers that bridge discrete metal building units. Accurate structural knowledge is key to the understanding of the applicability of these materials,

  19. High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights Print Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a remarkable class of relatively new materials that exist as a subclass of a larger group called coordination networks. MOFs have shown promise in a variety of applications ranging from gas storage to ion exchange. The materials are comprised of organic linkers that bridge discrete metal building units. Accurate structural knowledge is key to the understanding of the applicability of these materials,

  20. High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights Print Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a remarkable class of relatively new materials that exist as a subclass of a larger group called coordination networks. MOFs have shown promise in a variety of applications ranging from gas storage to ion exchange. The materials are comprised of organic linkers that bridge discrete metal building units. Accurate structural knowledge is key to the understanding of the applicability of these materials,

  1. Insights from Smart Meters: Identifying Specific Actions, Behaviors, and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Characteristics That Drive Savings in Behavior-Based Programs | Department of Energy Identifying Specific Actions, Behaviors, and Characteristics That Drive Savings in Behavior-Based Programs Insights from Smart Meters: Identifying Specific Actions, Behaviors, and Characteristics That Drive Savings in Behavior-Based Programs In this report, we use smart meter data to analyze specific actions, behaviors, and characteristics that drive energy savings in a BB program. Specifically, we examine a

  2. New imaging technique provides improved insight into controlling the plasma

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    in fusion experiments | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab New imaging technique provides improved insight into controlling the plasma in fusion experiments By John Greenwald December 9, 2013 Tweet Widget Google Plus One Share on Facebook Graphic representation of 2D images of fluctuating electron temperatures in a cross-section of a confined fusion plasma. Graphic representation of 2D images of fluctuating electron temperatures in a cross-section of a confined fusion plasma. A key issue for the

  3. New imaging technique provides improved insight into controlling the plasma

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    in fusion experiments | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab New imaging technique provides improved insight into controlling the plasma in fusion experiments By John Greenwald December 9, 2013 Tweet Widget Google Plus One Share on Facebook Graphic representation of 2D images of fluctuating electron temperatures in a cross-section of a confined fusion plasma. Graphic representation of 2D images of fluctuating electron temperatures in a cross-section of a confined fusion plasma. A key issue for the

  4. New insights into regulating the gut's microbial community | Argonne

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    National Laboratory insights into regulating the gut's microbial community August 27, 2015 Tweet EmailPrint The human body is home to billions of microbial cells, a number roughly three to 10 times greater than the number of human cells. Many of these microbes reside in the gastrointestinal system, or gut, and form a symbiotic relationship with their human hosts. These "commensal" organisms do not causes illness and in fact provide us with crucial metabolic and nutritional benefits

  5. Design Principles of Coherent Photosynthetic Energy Transport: Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    from Two Dimensional Electronic Spectroscopy | MIT-Harvard Center for Excitonics Design Principles of Coherent Photosynthetic Energy Transport: Insights from Two Dimensional Electronic Spectroscopy November 10, 2009 at 3pm/36-428 Greg Engel Department of Chemistry, The James Franck Institute, University of Chicago engel abstract: Life on earth is effectively solar powered, yet how energy moves through photosynthetic complexes prior to the biochemical steps of photosynthesis is still not

  6. Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Print XPD helicase is an enzyme that unwinds the DNA double helix; it is one component of an essential repair mechanism that maintains the integrity of DNA. XPD is unique, however, in that pinpoint mutations of this single protein are responsible for three different human diseases: in xeroderma pigmentosum (XP), extreme sensitivity to sunlight promotes cancer; Cockayne syndrome (CS) involves stunted growth and premature aging;

  7. Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enzyme Structure Provides Insights into Cancer and Aging Print XPD helicase is an enzyme that unwinds the DNA double helix; it is one component of an essential repair mechanism that maintains the integrity of DNA. XPD is unique, however, in that pinpoint mutations of this single protein are responsible for three different human diseases: in xeroderma pigmentosum (XP), extreme sensitivity to sunlight promotes cancer; Cockayne syndrome (CS) involves stunted growth and premature aging;

  8. Mechanistic Insight into the Formation of Cationic Naked Nanocrystals

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Generated Under Equilibrium Control - Joint Center for Energy Storage Research October 24, 2014, Research Highlights Mechanistic Insight into the Formation of Cationic Naked Nanocrystals Generated Under Equilibrium Control Pre-JCESR stripping chemistries (for cationic NC): NOBF4 (strong oxidant, not suitable for many compositions, ~$600/mol) Et3OBF4 (mild, but still causes adatom desorption for some sensitive compositions, ~$800/mol) New ligand-stripping chemistry developed within JCESR:

  9. High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights Print Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a remarkable class of relatively new materials that exist as a subclass of a larger group called coordination networks. MOFs have shown promise in a variety of applications ranging from gas storage to ion exchange. The materials are comprised of organic linkers that bridge discrete metal building units. Accurate structural knowledge is key to the understanding of the applicability of these materials,

  10. High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    High-Pressure MOF Research Yields Structural Insights Print Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a remarkable class of relatively new materials that exist as a subclass of a larger group called coordination networks. MOFs have shown promise in a variety of applications ranging from gas storage to ion exchange. The materials are comprised of organic linkers that bridge discrete metal building units. Accurate structural knowledge is key to the understanding of the applicability of these materials,

  11. Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights Print Cells depend on contact with their outside environment in order to thrive. Two examples illustrate why: In one, information needed to guide cellular processes is constantly transmitted across cell membranes by specialized proteins, and in the other, maintaining the right gradient of ions across the membrane is a process critical to the life and death of a cell. Membrane transport proteins-functioning either as

  12. Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights Print Cells depend on contact with their outside environment in order to thrive. Two examples illustrate why: In one, information needed to guide cellular processes is constantly transmitted across cell membranes by specialized proteins, and in the other, maintaining the right gradient of ions across the membrane is a process critical to the life and death of a cell. Membrane transport proteins-functioning either as

  13. Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights Print Cells depend on contact with their outside environment in order to thrive. Two examples illustrate why: In one, information needed to guide cellular processes is constantly transmitted across cell membranes by specialized proteins, and in the other, maintaining the right gradient of ions across the membrane is a process critical to the life and death of a cell. Membrane transport proteins-functioning either as

  14. Plasma Turbulence Simulations Reveal Promising Insight for Fusion Energy |

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Princeton Plasma Physics Lab Plasma Turbulence Simulations Reveal Promising Insight for Fusion Energy By Argonne National Laboratory March 31, 2014 Tweet Widget Google Plus One Share on Facebook Simulation of microturbulence in a tokamak fusion device. (Credit: Chad Jones and Kwan-Liu Ma, University of California, Davis; Stephane Ethier, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory) Simulation of microturbulence in a tokamak fusion device. (Credit: Chad Jones and Kwan-Liu Ma, University of

  15. Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Structures for Three Membrane Transport Proteins Yield Functional Insights Print Cells depend on contact with their outside environment in order to thrive. Two examples illustrate why: In one, information needed to guide cellular processes is constantly transmitted across cell membranes by specialized proteins, and in the other, maintaining the right gradient of ions across the membrane is a process critical to the life and death of a cell. Membrane transport proteins-functioning either as

  16. Model year 2010 Honda insight level-1 testing report.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rask, E.; Bocci, D.; Duoba, M.; Lohse-Busch, H.

    2011-03-22

    As a part of the US Department of Energy's Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA), a model year 2010 Honda Insight was procured by eTec (Phoenix, AZ) and sent to ANL's Advanced Powertrain Research Facility for the purposes of vehicle-level testing in support of the Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA). Data was acquired during testing using non-intrusive sensors, vehicle network information, and facilities equipment (emissions and dynamometer data). Standard drive cycles, performance cycles, steady-state cycles and A/C usage cycles were tested. Much of this data is openly available for download in ANL's Downloadable Dynamometer Database (D3). The major results are shown here in this report. Given the preliminary nature of this assessment, the majority of the testing was done over standard regulatory cycles and seeks to obtain a general overview of how the vehicle performs. These cycles include the US FTP cycle (Urban) and Highway Fuel Economy Test cycle as well as the US06, a more aggressive supplemental regulatory cycle. Data collection for this testing was kept at a fairly high level and includes emissions and fuel measurements from an exhaust emissions bench, high-voltage and accessory current and voltage from a DC power analyzer, and CAN bus data such as engine speed, engine load, and electric machine operation when available. The following sections will seek to explain some of the basic operating characteristics of the MY2010 Insight and provide insight into unique features of its operation and design.

  17. Insights into capacity loss mechanisms in Li-ion all-solid-state...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Insights into capacity loss mechanisms in Li-ion all-solid-state batteries with Al anodes Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Insights into capacity loss mechanisms in...

  18. Structural insight into the regulation of MOF in the male-specific...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Structural insight into the regulation of MOF in the male-specific lethal complex and the non-specific lethal complex Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Structural insight ...

  19. Acting Globally: Potential Carbon Emissions Mitigation Impacts from an International Standards and Labelling Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNeil, Michael A; Letschert, Virginie E.; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; Egan, Christine

    2009-05-29

    This paper presents an analysis of the potential impacts of an international initiative designed to support and promote the development and implementation of appliances standards and labelling programs throughout the world. As part of previous research efforts, LBNL developed the Bottom Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS), an analysis framework that estimates impact potentials of energy efficiency policies on a global scale. In this paper, we apply this framework to an initiative that would result in the successful implementation of programs focused on high priority regions and product types, thus evaluating the potential impacts of such an initiative in terms of electricity savings and carbon mitigation in 2030. In order to model the likely parameters of such a program, we limit impacts to a five year period starting in 2009, but assume that the first 5 years of a program will result in implementation of 'best practice' minimum efficiency performance standards by 2014. The 'high priority' regions considered are: Brazil, China, the European Union,India, Mexico and the United States. The products considered are: refrigerators, air conditioners, lighting (both fluorescent and incandescent), standby power (for consumer electronics) and televisions in the residential sector, and air conditioning and lighting in commercial buildings. In 2020, these regions and enduses account for about 37percent of global residential electricity and 29percent of electricity in commercial buildings. We find that 850Mt of CO2 could be saved in buildings by 2030 compared to the baseline forecast.

  20. Coal mine methane global review

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2008-07-01

    This is the second edition of the Coal Mine Methane Global Overview, updated in the summer of 2008. This document contains individual, comprehensive profiles that characterize the coal and coal mine methane sectors of 33 countries - 22 methane to market partners and an additional 11 coal-producing nations. The executive summary provides summary tables that include statistics on coal reserves, coal production, methane emissions, and CMM projects activity. An International Coal Mine Methane Projects Database accompanies this overview. It contains more detailed and comprehensive information on over two hundred CMM recovery and utilization projects around the world. Project information in the database is updated regularly. This document will be updated annually. Suggestions for updates and revisions can be submitted to the Administrative Support Group and will be incorporate into the document as appropriate.

  1. Energy in Today's Global Society

    K-12 Energy Lesson Plans and Activities Web site (EERE)

    Energy is an abstract concept that is very familiar to students from personal experiences with household appliances, transportation, and their own bodies. However, the nature of energy, energy transformations, and energy conservation are poorly understood, even by most adults. The geopolitical and environmental issues associated with energy and its consumption in today’s global society are important for every citizen to appreciate in order to make informed decisions about the future. Without a deep understanding that energy is finite and that energy transformations are what give modern society its high standard of living, students today will not be prepared to make the tough personal and political decisions that await us as fossil fuel resources dwindle.

  2. Cosmic Rays and Global Warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sloan, T.; Wolfendale, A. W.

    2008-01-24

    Some workers have claimed that the observed temporal correlations of (low level) terrestrial cloud cover with the cosmic ray intensity changes, due to solar modulation, are causal. The possibility arises, therefore, of a connection between cosmic rays and Global Warming. If true, the implications would be very great. We have examined this claim in some detail. So far, we have not found any evidence in support and so our conclusions are to doubt it. From the absence of corroborative evidence we estimate that less than 15% at the 95% confidence level, of the 11-year cycle warming variations are due to cosmic rays and less than 2% of the warming over the last 43 years is due to this cause. The origin of the correlation itself is probably the cycle of solar irradiance although there is, as yet, no certainty.

  3. Global change monitoring with lichens

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Insarov, G.

    1997-12-31

    Environmental monitoring involves observations and assessment of changes in ecosystems and their components caused by anthropogenetic influence. An ideal monitoring system enables quantification of the contemporary state of the environment and detect changes in it. An important function of monitoring is to assess environment quality of areas that are not affected by local anthropogenic impacts, i.e. background areas. In background areas terrestrial ecosystems are mainly affected by such anthropogenic factors as lowered air pollution and global climate change. Assessment of biotic responses to altered climatic and atmospheric conditions provides an important basis for ecosystem management and environmental decision making. Without the ability to make such assessment, sustainability of ecosystems as a support system for humans remains uncertain.

  4. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  5. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  6. EA-381 E-T Global Energy | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    EA-381 E-T Global Energy Order authorizing E-T Global Energy to export electric energy to Mexico. File EA-381 ET Global MX.docx More Documents & Publications EA-381 E-T Global ...

  7. Global warming, insurance losses and financial industry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Low, N.C.

    1996-12-31

    Global warming causes extremely bad weather in the near term. They have already caught the attention of the insurance industry, as they suffered massive losses in the last decade. Twenty-one out of the 25 largest catastrophes in the US, mainly in the form of hurricanes have occurred in the last decade. The insurance industry has reacted by taking the risk of global warming in decisions as to pricing and underwriting decisions. But they have yet to take a more active role in regulating the factors that contributes to global warming. How global warming can impact the financial industry and the modern economy is explored. Insurance and modern financial derivatives are key to the efficient functioning of the modern economy, without which the global economy can still function but will take a giant step backward. Any risk as global warming that causes economic surprises will hamper the efficient working of the financial market and the modern economy.

  8. Sustainability for the Global Biofuels Industry Minimizing Risks...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Industry Minimizing Risks and Maximizing Opportunities Sustainability for the Global ... More Documents & Publications Sustainability for the Global Biofuels Industry: ...

  9. Global Threat Reduction Initiative | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Past Projects » Global Superior Energy Performance Partnership Global Superior Energy Performance Partnership Graphic of Global Superior Energy Performance working groups, including energy management led by the United States, power led by Japan, combined heat and power led by Finland, steel led by Japan, cool roofs led by the United states, and cement led by Japan. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has supported the Superior Energy Performance (SEP) program, which provides industrial

  10. Global change research: Science and policy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rayner, S.

    1993-05-01

    This report characterizes certain aspects of the Global Change Research Program of the US Government, and its relevance to the short and medium term needs of policy makers in the public and private sectors. It addresses some of the difficulties inherent in the science and policy interface on the issues of global change. Finally, this report offers some proposals for improving the science for policy process in the context of global environmental change.

  11. Global Security Sciences | Argonne National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Global Security Sciences Advancing world-class science and engineering to protect, mitigate, respond to and recover from threats The Global Security Sciences (GSS) division delivers actionable, defensible and powerful information and technologies to decision makers who impact and shape our global security. Innovative decision support tools (including simulation models), databases and analytical methodologies are developed and used to provide quantitative information to decision makers in the

  12. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  13. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  14. Demand forecasting and revenue requirements, with implications for consideration in British Columbia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Acton, J.P.

    1983-05-01

    This paper was filed as an exhibit on behalf of The Consumers' Association of Canada (B.C. Branch), The Federated Anti-Poverty Groups of B.C., The Sierra Club of Western Canada, and the B.C. Old Age Pensioners' Organization. It was subjected to cross-examination on October 29, 1982, during Phase I of the hearings. The Utilities Commission had designated Phase I for consideration of (1) demand, (2) assets in service, (3) revenue requirements excluding return, and (4) financing and capital requirements. This paper presents a general discussion of the elements of a rate structure and their relationship to the demand for electricity, a systematic review of some 50 empirical studies of the demand for electricity as a function of price and other factors by the three principal classes of customers, and a discussion of the notion of revenue requirements. The paper should be of interest to utility regulators, rate specialists, and forecasters for its review of demand models and to academics concerned with the study of energy demand.

  15. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  16. Global Scratch (/global/scratch2 aka $GSCRATCH) will be retired on October

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    14 at 12:00 PDT Global Scratch (/global/scratch2 aka $GSCRATCH) will be retired on October 14 at 12:00 PDT Global Scratch (/global/scratch2 aka $GSCRATCH) will be retired on October 14 at 12:00 PDT October 9, 2015 by Richard Gerber This is a reminder that the Global Scratch (/global/scratch2 aka $GSCRATCH) file system will be retired on next Wednesday, October 14 at 12:00 (noon) PDT. The file system will be decommissioned and not be accessible after its retirement. Please make sure to back

  17. Pax Global: Compromise Agreement (2013-SE-1413)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE and Pax Global, Inc., entered into a Compromise Agreement to resolve a case involving the distribution in commerce of noncompliant freezers.

  18. Ener t Global SA | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    navigation, search Name: Ener-t Global SA Place: Valencia, Spain Zip: 46870 Product: Spanish developer of parabolic trough thermal plants on a turnkey basis. Coordinates:...

  19. New Energy Technologies | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Read More GE Scientists Demonstrate Promising Anti-icing Nano Surfaces GE Global Research today presented new research findings on its nanotextured anti-icing surfaces. In ...

  20. Global Change Associates | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Change Associates Jump to: navigation, search Name: Global Change Associates Place: New York City, New York Zip: 10025-5657 Product: Consulting firm focusing on the convergence...