National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for global forecast system

  1. Forecasting phenology under global warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Silander Jr., John A.

    Forecasting phenology under global warming Ine´s Iba´n~ez1,*, Richard B. Primack2, Abraham J in phenology. Keywords: climate change; East Asia, global warming; growing season, hierarchical Bayes; plant is shifting, and these shifts have been linked to recent global warming (Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Root et al

  2. Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Golden, Kenneth M.

    Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming forecasts of how global warming will affect polar icepacks. See also: Earth & Climate q Global Warming q the effects of climate warming, and its presence greatly reduces solar heating of the polar oceans." "Sea ice

  3. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  4. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore »logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  5. Assessment and added value estimation of an ensemble approach with a focus on global radiation forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bouallegue, Zied Ben

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of the high-resolution ensemble weather prediction system COSMO-DE-EPS is achieved with the perspective of using it for renewable energy applications. The performance of the ensemble forecast is explored focusing on global radiation, the main weather variable affecting solar power production, and on quantile forecasts, key probabilistic products for the energy sector. First, the ability of the ensemble system to capture and resolve the observation variability is assessed. Secondly, the potential benefit of the ensemble forecasting strategy compared to a single forecast approach is quantitatively estimated. A new metric called ensemble added value is proposed, aiming at a fair comparison of an ensemble forecast with a single forecast, when optimized to the users' needs. Hourly mean forecasts are verified against pyranometer measurements over verification periods covering 2013. The results show in particular that the added value of the ensemble approach is season-dependent and increases with the ...

  6. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    income 7 Figure 1.14: United States inflation Rate 8 Figure 1.15: Select United States interest Rates 8 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTiVE SUMMARY 1 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY 3 Recent Trends Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

  7. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  8. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  9. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  10. Solar Forecasting System and Irradiance Variability Characterization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    solar forecasting system based on numerical weather prediction plus satellite and ground-based data.1 Photovoltaic Systems: Report 3 Development of data base allowing managed access to statewide PV and insolation Based Data 13 Summary 14 References 14 #12;List of Figures Figure Number and Title Page # 1. Topography

  11. Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

    2014-07-25

    We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is ³delayed² and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

  12. GEO Secretariat Global Earth Observing System of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and Epidemiology 3. Energy Management 4. Climate Variability & Change 5. Water Management 6. Weather Forecasting 7© GEO Secretariat Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS): Biodiversity, Ecosystems and GEO BON GEO Forest Monitoring Symposium 4 November 2008 Douglas M. Muchoney, Ph.D. U.S. Geological

  13. Steam System Forecasting and Management 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

    1982-01-01

    Union Carbide's Taft Plant is a typical petrochemical complex with several processes that use and produce various fuel and steam resources. The plant steam and fuel system balances vary extensively since several process units 'block operate...

  14. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore »larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  15. Global and multi-scale features of solar wind-magnetosphere coupling: From modeling to forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sitnov, Mikhail I.

    Global and multi-scale features of solar wind-magnetosphere coupling: From modeling to forecasting issue. This paper presents a data-derived model of the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling that combines of solar wind-magnetosphere coupling: From modeling to forecasting, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L08802, doi:10

  16. SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg in irradiance forecasting have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius and Cotton, 1981), when or progress with respect to the development of solar irradiance forecasting methods. Heck and Takle (1987

  17. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19

    Real-time wave forecasts are critical to a variety of coastal and offshore opera- tions. NOAA’s global wave forecasts, at present, do not extend into many coastal regions of interest. Even after more than two decades of the historical Exxon Valdez...

  18. Forecasting changes in population genetic structure of alpine plants in response to global warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    François, Olivier

    Forecasting changes in population genetic structure of alpine plants in response to global warming the European Alps, we applied this approach to 20 alpine plant species considering a global increase populations potentially adapted to warmer environments and other populations. While a global trend of movement

  19. Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

  20. Development and initial application of the global-through-urban weather research and forecasting model with chemistry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Yang

    Development and initial application of the global-through-urban weather research and forecasting application of the global-through-urban weather research and forecasting model with chemistry (GU-WRF/Chem), J. In this work, a global-through-urban WRF/Chem model (i.e., GU-WRF/Chem) has been developed to provide

  1. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2009-04-06

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  2. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  3. Linear Diagnostics to Assess the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Satterfield, Elizabeth A.

    2011-10-21

    frequency. We find that turning the digital filter on in these two sets of experiments leads to a major improvement of the analyses. In the experiments with randomly placed observations, turning the digital fil- ter on degrades the analysis in the Tropics... are carried out with an implementation of the Local En- semble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) data assimilation system on a reduced (T62L28) resolution version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS). Both...

  4. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  5. Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

  6. Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

    2005-03-01

    Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

  7. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  8. Global Warming Systemically Caused Hurricane Sandy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lakoff, George

    2012-01-01

    Global Warming Systemically Caused Hurricane Sandyby George Lakoff Yes, global warming systemically causedExplain to others why global warming systemically caused the

  9. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  10. Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolter, J. Zico

    in a wide range of energy systems, including forecasting demand, renewable generation, and electricityLarge-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random demonstrated that in the context of electrical demand and wind power, probabilistic forecasts can offer

  11. Oceanic stochastic parametrizations in a seasonal forecast system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Andrejczuk, M; Juricke, S; Palmer, T N; Weisheimer, A; Zanna, L

    2015-01-01

    We study the impact of three stochastic parametrizations in the ocean component of a coupled model, on forecast reliability over seasonal timescales. The relative impacts of these schemes upon the ocean mean state and ensemble spread are analyzed. The oceanic variability induced by the atmospheric forcing of the coupled system is, in most regions, the major source of ensemble spread. The largest impact on spread and bias came from the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendency (SPPT) scheme - which has proven particularly effective in the atmosphere. The key regions affected are eddy-active regions, namely the western boundary currents and the Southern Ocean. However, unlike its impact in the atmosphere, SPPT in the ocean did not result in a significant decrease in forecast error. Whilst there are good grounds for implementing stochastic schemes in ocean models, our results suggest that they will have to be more sophisticated. Some suggestions for next-generation stochastic schemes are made.

  12. Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds THIERRY BERGOT Abstract--Short-term forecasting of fog is a difficult issue which can have a large societal impact. Fog of the life cycle of fog (onset, development and dissipation) up to +6 h. The error on the forecast onset

  13. Global Energy Management System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eidt, B. D.

    2005-01-01

    commitment to Stanford University's Global Climate and Energy Project (GCEP). The overarching goal of this program is the accelerated development of commercially viable energy technologies that can substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions on a...

  14. Streamflow forecasting for large-scale hydrologic systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Awwad, Haitham Munir

    1991-01-01

    Farland (Member) J esTR ao (Head of Department) May 1991 ABSTRACT Streamflow Forecasting for Large-Scale Hydrologic Systems. (May 1991) Haitham Munir Awwad, B. S. , University of Jordan Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Juan B. Valdes An on-line streamflow... thankful to Dr. Ralph A. Wurbs and Dr. Marshall J. McFarland for their assistance on my advisory committee. Support for this thesis by the Department of Civil Engineering through the Engineering Excellence Fund, and by the U, S. Army Corps of Engineers...

  15. Traffic congestion forecasting model for the INFORM System. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Azarm, A.; Mughabghab, S.; Stock, D.

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a computerized traffic forecasting model, developed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for a portion of the Long Island INFORM Traffic Corridor. The model has gone through a testing phase, and currently is able to make accurate traffic predictions up to one hour forward in time. The model will eventually take on-line traffic data from the INFORM system roadway sensors and make projections as to future traffic patterns, thus allowing operators at the New York State Department of Transportation (D.O.T.) INFORM Traffic Management Center to more optimally manage traffic. It can also form the basis of a travel information system. The BNL computer model developed for this project is called ATOP for Advanced Traffic Occupancy Prediction. The various modules of the ATOP computer code are currently written in Fortran and run on PC computers (pentium machine) faster than real time for the section of the INFORM corridor under study. The following summarizes the various routines currently contained in the ATOP code: Statistical forecasting of traffic flow and occupancy using historical data for similar days and time (long term knowledge), and the recent information from the past hour (short term knowledge). Estimation of the empirical relationships between traffic flow and occupancy using long and short term information. Mechanistic interpolation using macroscopic traffic models and based on the traffic flow and occupancy forecasted (item-1), and the empirical relationships (item-2) for the specific highway configuration at the time of simulation (construction, lane closure, etc.). Statistical routine for detection and classification of anomalies and their impact on the highway capacity which are fed back to previous items.

  16. Seasonal Sensitivity on COBEL-ISBA Local Forecast System for Fog and Low Clouds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seasonal Sensitivity on COBEL-ISBA Local Forecast System for Fog and Low Clouds STEVIE ROQUELAURE of uncertainty that lead to dispersion. Key words: Local numerical forecast system, fog and low clouds, seasonal prediction system. 1. Introduction Accurate prediction of fog and low clouds is one of the main issues

  17. Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-03-23

    Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

  18. A Novel Forecasting System for Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Anastasiadis, Anastasios

    A Novel Forecasting System for Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF) A Papaioannou1 Energetic Particles (SEPs) result from intense solar eruptive events such as solar flares and coronal mass. In this work, we present FORSPEF (Forecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares), a novel dual system, designed

  19. Towards a Self-Configurable Weather Research and Forecasting System Khalid Saleem, S. Masoud Sadjadi, Shu-Ching Chen

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Shu-Ching

    Towards a Self-Configurable Weather Research and Forecasting System Khalid Saleem, S. Masoud, Miami FL {ksale002, sadjadi,chens}@cs.fiu.edu ABSTRACT Current weather forecast and visualization systems lack the scalability to support numerous customized requests for weather research and forecasting

  20. Advanced chemistry-transport modeling and observing systems allow daily air quality observations, short-term forecasts, and real-time analyses of air quality at the global and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Menut, Laurent

    , French legislation has been adapted in such a way that the local authorities in charge of air pollution can now inform the public and take emergency decisions re- lated to air pollution control not onlyOLOGICAL SOCIETy | #12;air quality monitoring system. In case of a pollution episode, when concentrations exceed

  1. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  2. On-line economic optimization of energy systems using weather forecast information.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-01-01

    We establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit weather forecast information in the operation of energy systems. We argue that anticipating the weather conditions can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The framework is based on the solution of a stochastic dynamic real-time optimization (D-RTO) problem incorporating forecasts generated from a state-of-the-art weather prediction model. The necessary uncertainty information is extracted from the weather model using an ensemble approach. The accuracy of the forecast trends and uncertainty bounds are validated using real meteorological data. We present a numerical simulation study in a building system to demonstrate the developments.

  3. Development and Initial Application of the Global-Through-Urban Weather Research1 and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (GU-WRF/Chem)2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nenes, Athanasios

    1 Development and Initial Application of the Global-Through-Urban Weather Research1 and Forecasting-cloud-radiation-precipitation-climate interactions. In this work, a global-through-urban33 WRF/Chem model (i.e., GU-WRF/Chem) has been developed photolysis rate, near-surface temperature, wind speed at 10-m, planetary boundary layer height,40

  4. Development of Load Forecasting Procedures for the Texas A&M University System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baltazar-Cervantes, J. C.; Lim, C.; Haberl, J. S.; Turnder, W. D.; Claridge, D. E.

    2001-01-01

    This paper reports on the effort to develop load-forecasting procedures for the Texas A&M University System (TAMUS). Such procedures are being investigated to determine if the TAMUS can benefit from the pending deregulation ...

  5. QUALIFIED FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY SPATIALLY DISPERSED GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    , Energy Meteorology Group, D-26111 Oldenburg, Germany, elke.lorenz@uni-oldenburg.de + UniversityQUALIFIED FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY SPATIALLY DISPERSED GRID- CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Schneider° * University of Oldenburg, Institute of Physics, Energy and Semiconductor Research Laboratory

  6. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  7. An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting Shahriar Shafiee a,n

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boisvert, Jeff

    on monthly historical data of nominal gold price. & 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Introduction classification: E31 O13 Q32 Keywords: Historical gold market Forecasting mineral prices Long-term trend reverting and the price of gold is relatively higher than its historical trend. For mining companies to mitigate risk

  8. Systems integration for global sustainability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2015-01-01

    footprinting of global biofuel production. Appl. Energy 112,tion research because biofuel production and consumption as90% of the global biofuel production of 105 billion liters

  9. Global trends in agriculture and food systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Delaware, University of

    development * Corresponding author: Danish Research Centre for Organic Food and Farming (DARCOF), P.O. Box 501 Global trends in agriculture and food systems Marie Trydeman Knudsen*, Niels Halberg, Jørgen E .................................................................................16 Global trends in organic agriculture

  10. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01

    Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important Input into Building..., Martin Fradette Environment Canada RPN ? Recherche en Pr?vision num?rique Dr. Wei Yu, Dr. Paul Vaillancourt, Dr. Sylvie Leroyer Natural Resources Canada ? Canmet Energy Dr. Jos? A. Candanedo Overview ? Building management and weather information...

  11. Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models for precipitation forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 799811 (2003) EGU

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    2003-01-01

    Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models for precipitation forecasting 799 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 799811 (2003) © EGU Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models

  12. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  13. Real-Time Forecasting for the Antarctic: An Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Howat, Ian M.

    Real-Time Forecasting for the Antarctic: An Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System. MANNING AND JORDAN G. POWERS Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, National Center.S. Antarctic Program's field operations, the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) was implemented in Oc

  14. Systems integration for global sustainability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2015-01-01

    air pollution, and energy security policy. Energy Policy 38,Mima, European climate–energy security nexus: A model based16). Coupling global energy security policy with climate

  15. Systems integration for global sustainability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2015-01-01

    of the global virtual water trade network. Proc. Natl. Acad.J. Wang et al. , China’s water–energy nexus: Greenhouse-gasand future trends in grey water footprints of anthropogenic

  16. An Investigation of the Limitations in Plume Rise Models used in Air Quality Forecast Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collins, Gary S.

    are important for predicting pollutants regulated by National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). NAAQS pollutants, include CO, NO2, PM2.5, PM10, O3, and SO2, are considered deleterious to public health and airAn Investigation of the Limitations in Plume Rise Models used in Air Quality Forecast Systems 1

  17. ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION TO SANTIAGO DE CHILE)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bertossi, Leopoldo

    Chile and other cities in Chile, air pollution is a dramatic problem. An Environmental InformationENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION planning. Using a model-based EIS for air pollution it is possible (i) to study complex source

  18. Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boss, Emmanuel S.

    Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay Fei://www.marine.maine.edu/~eboss/index.html http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov/ LONG-TERM GOALS Modeling and predicting ocean optical properties for coastal waters requires linking optical properties with the physical, chemical, and biological processes

  19. System implementation for US Air Force Global Theater Weather Analysis and Prediction System (GTWAPS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simunich, K.L.; Pinkerton, S.C.; Michalakes, J.G.; Christiansen, J.H.

    1997-03-01

    The Global Theater Weather Analysis and Prediction System (GTWAPS) is intended to provide war fighters and decision makers with timely, accurate, and tailored meteorological and oceanographic (METOC) information to enhance effective employment of battlefield forces. Of critical importance to providing METOC theater information is the generation of meteorological parameters produced by numerical prediction models and application software at the Air Force Global Weather Central (AFGWC), Offutt Air Force Base, Nebraska. Ultimately, application-derived data will be produced by the regional Joint METOC Forecast Units and by the deployed teams within a theater. The USAF Air Staff contracted with Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) for assistance in defining a hardware and software solution using off-the-shelf technology that would give the USAF the flexibility of testing various meteorological models and the ability to use the system within their daily operational constraints.

  20. Frontiers in Global Change Seminar Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    's research group. The seminar will present the development of our U.S. monitoring and forecasting systemFrontiers in Global Change Seminar Series Towards a global drought monitoring, forecasting, activities under the Group of Earth Observations (GEO) and the World Climate Research Programme have

  1. A global aerosol model forecast for the ACE-Asia field experiment Mian Chin,1,2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chin, Mian

    layer. We attribute this ``missing'' dust source to desertification regions in the Inner Mongolia forecasting. After incorporating the desertification sources, the model is able to reproduce the observed

  2. Can Fully Accounting for Clouds in Data Assimilation Improve Short-Term Forecasts by Global Models?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robert, Pincus

    ? ROBERT PINCUS AND ROBERT J. PATRICK HOFMANN University of Colorado and NOAA/Earth System Research for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado JEFFREY S. WHITAKER NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory using a single ensemble data assimilation system coupled to two present-generation climate models

  3. Global optimization of hybrid systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Cha Kun

    2006-01-01

    Systems that exhibit both discrete state and continuous state dynamics are called hybrid systems. In most nontrivial cases, these two aspects of system behavior interact to such a significant extent that they cannot be ...

  4. Self-correcting differential global positioning system 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schreiber, Randal Alfred

    1993-01-01

    The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a satellite based system that can accurately determine a user's position in terms of latitude, longitude, and height or in terms of X, Y, and Z. The X, Y, and Z coordinate system is an Earth Centered Earth...

  5. Demonstration of Next Generation PEM CHP Systems for Global Markets...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Demonstration of Next Generation PEM CHP Systems for Global Markets Using PBI Membrane Technology Demonstration of Next Generation PEM CHP Systems for Global Markets Using PBI...

  6. RECONSTRUCTING CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WITH COORDINATED IMAGING AND IN SITU OBSERVATIONS: GLOBAL STRUCTURE, KINEMATICS, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu Ying; Luhmann, Janet G.; Lin, Robert P.; Bale, Stuart D. [Space Sciences Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Thernisien, Arnaud [Universities of Space Research Association, Columbia, MD 21044 (United States); Vourlidas, Angelos [Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375 (United States); Davies, Jackie A., E-mail: liuxying@ssl.berkeley.ed [Space Science and Technology Department, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Didcot (United Kingdom)

    2010-10-20

    We reconstruct the global structure and kinematics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using coordinated imaging and in situ observations from multiple vantage points. A forward modeling technique, which assumes a rope-like morphology for CMEs, is used to determine the global structure (including orientation and propagation direction) from coronagraph observations. We reconstruct the corresponding structure from in situ measurements at 1 AU with the Grad-Shafranov method, which gives the flux-rope orientation, cross section, and a rough knowledge of the propagation direction. CME kinematics (propagation direction and radial distance) during the transit from the Sun to 1 AU are studied with a geometric triangulation technique, which provides an unambiguous association between solar observations and in situ signatures; a track fitting approach is invoked when data are available from only one spacecraft. We show how the results obtained from imaging and in situ data can be compared by applying these methods to the 2007 November 14-16 and 2008 December 12 CMEs. This merged imaging and in situ study shows important consequences and implications for CME research as well as space weather forecasting: (1) CME propagation directions can be determined to a relatively good precision as shown by the consistency between different methods; (2) the geometric triangulation technique shows a promising capability to link solar observations with corresponding in situ signatures at 1 AU and to predict CME arrival at the Earth; (3) the flux rope within CMEs, which has the most hazardous southward magnetic field, cannot be imaged at large distances due to expansion; (4) the flux-rope orientation derived from in situ measurements at 1 AU may have a large deviation from that determined by coronagraph image modeling; and (5) we find, for the first time, that CMEs undergo a westward migration with respect to the Sun-Earth line at their acceleration phase, which we suggest is a universal feature produced by the magnetic field connecting the Sun and ejecta. The importance of having dedicated spacecraft at L4 and L5, which are well situated for the triangulation concept, is also discussed based on the results.

  7. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  8. ExxonMobil Global Energy Management System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roberto, F.

    2009-01-01

    For many years, ExxonMobil has undertaken voluntary actions to improve efficiency in our operations and in customer use of our products. Our Global Energy Management System (GEMS) is an important initiative that is having a positive impact at each...

  9. Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2010-10-19

    In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

  10. Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2011-06-23

    An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

  11. Data-driven spectral decomposition and forecasting of ergodic dynamical systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giannakis, Dimitrios

    2015-01-01

    We develop a framework for dimension reduction, mode decomposition, and nonparametric forecasting of data generated by ergodic dynamical systems. This framework is based on a representation of the Koopman group of unitary operators in a smooth orthonormal basis of the L2 space of the dynamical system, acquired from time-ordered data through the diffusion maps algorithm. Using this representation, we compute Koopman eigenfunctions through a regularized advection-diffusion operator, and employ these eigenfunctions in dimension reduction maps with projectible dynamics and high smoothness for the given observation modality. In systems with pure point spectra, we construct a decomposition of the generator of the Koopman group into mutually commuting vector fields, which we reconstruct in data space through a representation of the pushforward map in the Koopman eigenfunction basis. We also use a special property of this basis, namely that the basis elements evolve as simple harmonic oscillators, to build nonparamet...

  12. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  13. FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann*, Hashini Wickramarathne*, Hans Georg Beyer +

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    of Physics, Energy and Semiconductor Research Laboratory, Energy Meteorology Group, 26111 Oldenburg, GermanyH, Spicherer Straße 48, D-86157 Augsburg, Germany ABSTRACT: The contribution of power production by PV systemsFORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann

  14. Weather Research and Forecasting Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System: WRFDA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barker, D.; Huang, X. Y.; Liu, Z. Q.; Auligne, T.; Zhang, X.; Rugg, S.; Ajjaji, R.; Bourgeois, A.; Bray, J.; Chen, Y. S.; Demirtas, M.; Guo, Y. R.; Henderson, T.; Huang, W.; Lin, H. C.; Michalakes, J.; Rizvi, S.; Zhang, X. Y.

    2012-06-01

    Data assimilation is the process by which observations are combined with short-range NWP model output to produce an analysis of the state of the atmosphere at a specified time. Since its inception in the late 1990s, the multiagency Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model effort has had a strong data assimilation component, dedicating two working groups to the subject. This article documents the history of the WRF data assimilation effort, and discusses the challenges associated with balancing academic, research, and operational data assimilation requirements in the context of the WRF effort to date. The WRF Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System (WRFDA) has evolved over the past 10 years, and has resulted in over 30 refereed publications to date, as well as implementation in a wide range of real-time and operational NWP systems.

  15. Rapid deployable global sensing hazard alert system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Cordaro, Joseph V; Tibrea, Steven L; Shull, Davis J; Coleman, Jerry T; Shuler, James M

    2015-04-28

    A rapid deployable global sensing hazard alert system and associated methods of operation are provided. An exemplary system includes a central command, a wireless backhaul network, and a remote monitoring unit. The remote monitoring unit can include a positioning system configured to determine a position of the remote monitoring unit based on one or more signals received from one or more satellites located in Low Earth Orbit. The wireless backhaul network can provide bidirectional communication capability independent of cellular telecommunication networks and the Internet. An exemplary method includes instructing at least one of a plurality of remote monitoring units to provide an alert based at least in part on a location of a hazard and a plurality of positions respectively associated with the plurality of remote monitoring units.

  16. Global positioning system recorder and method

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hayes, D.W.; Hofstetter, K.J.; Eakle, R.F. Jr.; Reeves, G.E.

    1998-12-22

    A global positioning system recorder (GPSR) is disclosed in which operational parameters and recorded positional data are stored on a transferable memory element. Through this transferrable memory element, the user of the GPSR need have no knowledge of GPSR devices other than that the memory element needs to be inserted into the memory element slot and the GPSR must be activated. The use of the data element also allows for minimal downtime of the GPSR and the ability to reprogram the GPSR and download data therefrom, without having to physically attach it to another computer. 4 figs.

  17. Contributions from a Local Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) for Improving Fog and Low Cloud Forecasts at Airports

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Contributions from a Local Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) for Improving Fog and Low Cloud authorities with accurate forecasts of fog and cloud ceiling. A specific event, which is called a low with the prediction of infrequent events like fog and the life cycles of low clouds. At Paris' Charles de Gaulle (Cd

  18. Impact of forecasting error on the performance of capacitated multi-item production systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xie, Jinxing

    in manufacturing planning and control. The quality of the master production schedule (MPS) can significantly managers optimize their production plans by selecting more reasonable forecasting methods and scheduling forecasting, order entry and production planning activities on the one hand, and the detailed planning

  19. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  20. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  1. A DATABASE INTEGRATION SYSTEM BASED ON GLOBAL VIEW GENERATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawrence, Ramon

    A DATABASE INTEGRATION SYSTEM BASED ON GLOBAL VIEW GENERATION Uchang Park Duksung Women: database, integration, view, heterogeneity. Abstract: Database integration is a common and growing challenge with the proliferation of database systems, data warehouses, data marts, and other OLAP systems

  2. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  3. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  4. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  5. Crustal motion in Indonesia from Global Positioning System measurements

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCaffrey, Robert

    Crustal motion in Indonesia from Global Positioning System measurements Y. Bock,1 L. Prawirodirdjo: crustal motion, Indonesia tectonics, GPS, current plate motions, Southeast Asia Citation: Bock, Y., L, Crustal motion in Indonesia from Global Positioning System measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B8), 2367

  6. The Globally Harmonized System for Hazard Communication (GHS)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Capogna, Luca

    The Globally Harmonized System for Hazard Communication (GHS) University of Arkansas Facilities groups. · GHS is based on major existing systems around the world, including OSHA's Hazard Communication to hazard communication, providing agreed upon criteria for classification of chemical hazards

  7. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens to the Klim wind farm using three WPPT forecasts based on different weather forecasting systems. It is shown of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  8. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  9. EWEC 2006 Scientific Track Advanced Forecast Systems for the Grid Integration of 25 GW

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    forecasts, smoothing effects Abstract The economic success of offshore wind farms in liberalised electricity of offshore wind farms, their electricity production must be known well in advance to allow an efficient Oldenburg, Germany Key words: Offshore wind power, grid integration, short-term prediction, regional

  10. Modeling the Global Critical Path in Concurrent Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Modeling the Global Critical Path in Concurrent Systems Girish Venkataramani Tiberiu Chelcea Mihai Molecular Electronics, under contract number CCR0205523. #12;Keywords: Performance modeling, critical path analysis, high-level synthesis #12;Abstract We show how the global critical path can be used as a practical

  11. World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ): Global Activity Module

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2013-01-01

    World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Global Activity Module Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the World Energy Projection Plus (WEPS ) Global Activity Module (GAM) used to develop the International Energy Outlook for 2013 (IEO2013). The report catalogues and describes the module assumptions, computations, methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and mainframe source code.

  12. An Earth-system perspective of the global nitrogen cycle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischlin, Andreas

    An Earth-system perspective of the global nitrogen cycle Nicolas Gruber & James N. Galloway cycle and climate are expected to become an increasingly important determinant of the Earth system with the cli- mate system in the presence of the ever-increasing human intervention in the Earth system1

  13. Validated global multiobjective optimization of trajectories in nonlinear dynamical systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coffee, Thomas Merritt

    2015-01-01

    We introduce a new approach for global multiobjective optimization of trajectories in continuous nonlinear dynamical systems that can provide rigorous, arbitrarily tight bounds on the objective values and state paths ...

  14. 12.540 Principles of Global Positioning Systems, Spring 2008

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Herring, Thomas

    The aim of this course is to introduce the principles of the Global Positioning System and to demonstrate its application to various aspects of Earth Sciences. The specific content of the course depends each year on the ...

  15. Resource and Knowledge Discovery in Global Information Systems: A Multiple Layered

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fu, Yongjian

    Resource and Knowledge Discovery in Global Information Systems: A Multiple Layered Database an im­ portant issue in the research into global information systems. Although researches successfully developed and delivered to the market, a global information system stores much huger amount

  16. Empirical Dynamical System Reduction I: Global Nonlinear Transformations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miranda, Rick

    Empirical Dynamical System Reduction I: Global Nonlinear Transformations Michael Kirby and Rick (CNLKL) for the data reduction and semi­analytical remodeling of dynamical systems. The unconstrained­Lo`eve (CNLKL) 12 5. Reduction and Semi­analytic Remodeling of Dynamical Systems 17 6. Summary and Directions

  17. Predicting Global Failure Regimes in Complex Information Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Predicting Global Failure Regimes in Complex Information Systems June 19, 2012 NetONets 2012 Chris­ with application to complex information systems, e.g., Internet, Clouds, Grids What is the problem? Why is it hard; Ongoing & Planned ITL Research: How can we help to increase the reliability of complex information systems

  18. Predicting Global Failure Regimes in Complex Information Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Predicting Global Failure Regimes in Complex Information Systems DoE COMBINE Workshop September 19 & Ongoing Research­ with application to complex information systems, e.g., Internet, Clouds, Grids What & Planned ITL Research: How can we help to increase the reliability of complex information systems

  19. Low-Global Warming Potential HVAC System with Ultra-Small Centrifugal...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Global Warming Potential HVAC System with Ultra-Small Centrifugal Compression Low-Global Warming Potential HVAC System with Ultra-Small Centrifugal Compression Mechanical...

  20. Global Warming Systemically Caused Hurricane Sandy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lakoff, George

    2012-01-01

    Warming Systemically Caused Hurricane Sandy by George Lakoffsystemically caused Hurricane Sandy -- and the Midwestenormous energy and size of Hurricane Sandy, as well as the

  1. Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.; Wang, Taiping

    2009-12-01

    To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment, and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region’s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.

  2. Growth Rates of Global Energy Systems and Future Outlooks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoeoek, Mikael; Li, Junchen; Johansson, Kersti; Snowden, Simon

    2012-03-15

    The world is interconnected and powered by a number of global energy systems using fossil, nuclear, or renewable energy. This study reviews historical time series of energy production and growth for various energy sources. It compiles a theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding the behaviour underlying global energy systems' growth. The most extreme growth rates are found in fossil fuels. The presence of scaling behaviour, i.e. proportionality between growth rate and size, is established. The findings are used to investigate the consistency of several long-range scenarios expecting rapid growth for future energy systems. The validity of such projections is questioned, based on past experience. Finally, it is found that even if new energy systems undergo a rapid 'oil boom'-development-i.e. they mimic the most extreme historical events-their contribution to global energy supply by 2050 will be marginal.

  3. Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thomas, David D.

    production doubled, greatly reducing food shortages, but at high environ- mental cost (1­5). In addition climate change in environ- mental and societal impacts (2, 8). Population size and per capita consumption capita 1 Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, Uni- versity of Minnesota, 1987 Upper Buford

  4. Global Inflation Dynamics: regularities & forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Akaev, Askar; Korotayev, Andrey V; Fomin, Alexey

    2012-01-01

    countries   Data source: World Bank 2012: NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG. This diagram demonstrates that the oil price

  5. Global Optimization in Control System Analysis and Design

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neumaier, Arnold

    Global Optimization in Control System Analysis and Design Venkataramanan Balakrishnan Stephen Boyd. S. A. I. INTRODUCTION Many problems in control system analysis and design can be posed in a setting variations. An example is parametric robustness analysis, where the parameters might represent physical quan

  6. A Global Land System Framework for Integrated Climate-Change Assessments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schlosser, C. Adam

    Land ecosystems play a major role in the global cycles of energy, water, carbon and nutrients. A Global Land System (GLS) framework has been developed for the Integrated Global Systems Model Version 2 (IGSM2) to simulate ...

  7. Global Energy Management System Implementation: General Dynamics...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Erie I Furnace 19 BBtu, 20,000 GJ 175,000 1.0M Heat Treat Furnace Holcroft 1 BurnersRecoup 14 BBtu, 15,000 GJ 132,000 276,000 Boiler Systems Installed new 500 HP...

  8. Tracking tropical cloud systems for the diagnosis of simulations by the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vogelmann, A.M.; Lin, W.; Cialella, A.; Luke, E. P.; Jensen, M. P.; Zhang, M. H.; Boer, E.

    2010-06-27

    To aid in improving model parameterizations of clouds and convection, we examine the capability of models, using explicit convection, to simulate the life cycle of tropical cloud systems in the tropical warm pool. The cloud life cycle is determined using a satellite cloud tracking algorithm (Boer and Ramanathan, J. Geophys. Res., 1997), and the statistics are compared to those of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Using New York Blue, a Blue Gene/L supercomputer that is co-operated by Brookhaven and Stony Brook, simulations are run at a resolution comparable to the observations. Initial results suggest that the organization of the mesoscale convective systems is particularly sensitive to the cloud microphysics parameterization used.

  9. Tracking tropical cloud systems - Observations for the diagnosis of simulations by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vogelmann, A.M.; Lin, W.; Cialella, A.; Luke, E.; Jensen, M.; Zhang, M.

    2010-03-15

    To aid in improving model parameterizations of clouds and convection, we examine the capability of models, using explicit convection, to simulate the life cycle of tropical cloud systems in the vicinity of the ARM Tropical Western Pacific sites. The cloud life cycle is determined using a satellite cloud tracking algorithm (Boer and Ramanathan, 1997), and the statistics are compared to those of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Using New York Blue, a Blue Gene/L supercomputer that is co-operated by Brookhaven and Stony Brook, simulations are run at a resolution comparable to the observations. Initial results suggest a computational paradox where, even though the size of the simulated systems are about half of that observed, their longevities are still similar. The explanation for this seeming incongruity will be explored.

  10. Ris Energy Report 5 Global drivers for transformation of energy systems 3 Global drivers for transformation of energy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of greenhouse gases has brought a new political rationale for the development of more climate-friendly energy in the global energy market of rapidly-expanding national economies, notably China and India. TogetherRisø Energy Report 5 Global drivers for transformation of energy systems 3 Global drivers

  11. Published in proceedings of the 15 th IMACS'97 World Congress, August 1997, Berlin, Germany, Wissenshaft & Technik Verlag, Vol. 4, pp. 571--576. The CTADEL Application Driver for Numerical Weather Forecast Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van Engelen, Robert A.

    , Wissenshaft & Technik Verlag, Vol. 4, pp. 571--576. The CTADEL Application Driver for Numerical Weather@cs.leidenuniv.nl Keywords: code generation; high performance computing; numerical weather forecasting ABSTRACT The CTADEL numerical weather forecast system. As such, the CTADEL system can be viewed as a problem­solving environment

  12. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural networks, Neural networks, Modeling, Forecasting, Energy demand, Time series forecasting, Power system demand time series based only on data for six years to forecast the demand for the seventh year. Both

  13. Testing Automated Solar Flare Forecasting With 13 Years of MDI Synoptic Magnetograms

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoeksema, Todd

    becomes more technologically dependent on complex global systems, the potential risk posedTesting Automated Solar Flare Forecasting With 13 Years of MDI Synoptic Magnetograms J.P. Mason1 is statistically associated with changes in several characteris- tics of the line-of-sight magnetic field in solar

  14. Global Logistics Systems Adapted from an Affiliates seminar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brock, David

    Global Logistics Systems Adapted from an Affiliates seminar held at MIT on March 14-15, 2001 #12 to be entered more than 10 times #12;Edmund W. Schuster Director, MIT Affiliates Program in Logistics · The New vary from country to country? · Alliances: What are the trends in logistics alliances? · U

  15. A forecast-driven tactical planning model for a serial manufacturing system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chhaochhria, Pallav

    We examine tactical planning for a serial manufacturing system that produces a product family with many process steps and low volumes. The system is subject to uncertainty in demand, in the supply of raw materials, and in ...

  16. Low Dimensional Behavior of Large Systems of Globally Coupled Oscillators

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Edward Ott; Thomas M. Antonsen

    2008-06-02

    It is shown that, in the infinite size limit, certain systems of globally coupled phase oscillators display low dimensional dynamics. In particular, we derive an explicit finite set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations for the macroscopic evolution of the systems considered. For example, an exact, closed form solution for the nonlinear time evolution of the Kuramoto problem with a Lorentzian oscillator frequency distribution function is obtained. Low dimensional behavior is also demonstrated for several prototypical extensions of the Kuramoto model, and time-delayed coupling is also considered.

  17. 2, 921942, 2002 Global ozone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    ACPD 2, 921­942, 2002 Global ozone forecasting H. J. Eskes et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction Geophysical Society 2002 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions Global ozone forecasting based on ERS-2 July 2002 Correspondence to: H. J. Eskes (eskes@knmi.nl) 921 #12;ACPD 2, 921­942, 2002 Global ozone

  18. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review. Int. J.beam and global solar radiation data. Solar Energy , 81:768–forecasting of solar radiation data: a review. International

  19. Forecasting and Capturing Emission Reductions Using Industrial Energy Management and Reporting Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robinson, J.

    2010-01-01

    The Mandatory 2010 Green House Gas (GHG) Reporting Regulations and pending climate change legislation has increased interest in Energy Management and Reporting Systems (EMRS) as a means of both reducing and reporting GHG emissions. This paper...

  20. Global structure and geodesics for Koenigs superintegrable systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Galliano Valent

    2015-10-28

    Starting from the framework defined by Matveev and Shevchishin we derive the local and the global structure for the four types of super-integrable Koenigs metrics. These dynamical systems are always defined on non-compact manifolds, namely $\\,{\\mb R}^2\\,$ and $\\,{\\mb H}^2$. The study of their geodesic flows is made easier using their linear and quadratic integrals. Using Carter (or minimal) quantization we show that the formal superintegrability is preserved at the quantum level and in two cases, for which all of the geodesics are closed, it is even possible to compute the discrete spectrum of the quantum hamiltonian.

  1. Hybrid Generation Systems Planning Expansion Forecast: A Critical State of the Art Review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brest, Université de

    renewable energy resources are random and weather/climatic conditions-dependant. In this challenging context technical and economical constraints. Index Terms--Hybrid energy systems, renewable power generation-friendly nature (i.e. renewable energies). Although renewable energy penetration in electricity is expected

  2. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  3. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration wouldMassR&D100 Winners * Impacts on Global Technology OUTSIDE FRONT7a. Space31a.Hartsock

  4. Global

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration would likeUniverse (Journalvivo Low-Dose Low LETUseful LinksGlass Stronger thanGlenn T.4Global

  5. Strategic Release Planning Challenges for Global Information Systems A Position Paper

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paech, Barbara

    Strategic Release Planning Challenges for Global Information Systems ­ A Position Paper Gabriele- visions all over the world. This raises particular problems for strategic release planning during strategic release plan- ning. Planning global features requires a particular process regarding

  6. MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) Version 2: Model Description and Baseline Evaluation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sokolov, Andrei P.

    The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) is designed for analyzing the global environmental changes that may result from anthropogenic causes, quantifying the uncertainties associated with the projected changes, and ...

  7. Building a Global Federation System for Climate Change Research: The Earth System Grid Center for Enabling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chervenak, Ann

    Building a Global Federation System for Climate Change Research: The Earth System Grid Center for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [2]. Increasingly, climate change research is data intensive@mcs.anl.gov, bernholdtde@ornl.gov Abstract. The recent release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th

  8. Synthetic Aperture Digital Beamsteering Array for Global Positioning System Interference Mitigation: A Study on Array Topology 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Harms, Joel K

    2014-05-20

    The Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite navigation system is deeply intertwined with civilian everyday life. Unfortunately for the civilians that use the system, the GPS system is vulnerable to external interference. Antenna arrays...

  9. Global Predictions 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Swyden, Courtney

    2006-01-01

    stream_source_info Global Predictions.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 7503 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name Global Predictions.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 Every morning... drought index is based on a daily water balance, where a drought factor is calculated with precipitation and soil moisture,? Srinivasan said. Global Predictions Story by Courtney Swyden Global Predictions Lab uses advanced technologies to forecast...

  10. ANEMOS: Development of a Next Generation Wind Power Forecasting System for the Large-Scale Integration of Onshore &

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    -Scale Integration of Onshore & Offshore Wind Farms. G. Kariniotakis* , D. Mayer, J. Moussafir, R. Chevallaz-line operation at onshore and offshore wind farms for prediction at a local, regional and national scale, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting, exploiting both statistical and physical modeling approaches

  11. Predictability of European air quality: Assessment of 3 years of operational forecasts and analyses by the PREV'AIR system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Menut, Laurent

    , is proved to improve ozone forecasts, especially when photochemical pollution episodes occur. The PREV'AIR and laws regarding the pollutants of utmost importance in relation to human health, air pollution is still- ments are still needed to manage and control the impacts of air pollution on health. [3] Facing

  12. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  13. Land system architecture: Using land systems to adapt and mitigate global environmental change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Turner, B.L.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Verbug, Peter H.; Murray, Alan T.

    2013-04-01

    Land systems (mosaics of land use and cover) are human environment systems, the changes in which drive and respond to local to global environmental changes, climate to macro-economy (Foley et al., 2005). Changes in land systems have been the principal proximate cause in the loss of habitats and biota globally, long contributed to atmospheric greenhouse gases, and hypothesized to have triggered climate changes in the early Holocene (Ruddiman, 2003). Land use, foremost agriculture, is the largest source of biologically active nitrogen to the atmosphere, critical to sources and sinks of carbon, and a major component in the hydrologic cycle (e.g., Bouwman et al., 2011). Changes in land systems also affect regional climate (Feddema et al., 2005; Pielke, 2005), ecosystem functions, and the array of ecosystem services they provide. Land systems, therefore, are a central feature of how humankind manages its relationship with nature-intended or not, or whether this relationship proceeds sustainably or not.

  14. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs: FORECASTING EARTH'S SURFACE RESPONSE

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Brad Murray, A.; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore »the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  15. An Intelligent Solar Powered Battery Buffered EV Charging Station with Solar Electricity Forecasting and EV Charging Load Projection Functions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhao, Hengbing; Burke, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    power source from inherent intermittent solar PV power.B. Solar PV Electricity Forecasting Fig. 1. Charging stationForecasting Power Output of Solar Photovoltaic System Using

  16. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  17. Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting SAMUEL RE, a need exists for accurate and updated fog and low-cloud forecasts. Couche Brouillard Eau Liquide (COBEL for the very short-term forecast of fog and low clouds. This forecast system assimilates local observations

  18. Systemic Risk from Global Financial Derivatives: A Network Analysis of Contagion

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    #12;Systemic Risk from Global Financial Derivatives: A Network Analysis of Contagion and Its. Not for Redistribution #12;© 2012 International Monetary Fund WP/ Monetary and Capital Markets Department Systemic Risk from Global Financial Derivatives: A Network Analysis of Contagion and Its Mitigation with Super

  19. Global Critical Path: A Tool for System-Level Timing Girish Venkataramani

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goldstein, Seth Copen

    Global Critical Path: A Tool for System-Level Timing Analysis Girish Venkataramani Mihai Budiu. Traditionally, the critical path is defined at the RTL level, as the longest path in the combinational logic to define the concept of a Global Critical Path (GCP), for pre- dicting system-level performance. We show

  20. Global climate change is currently affecting many ecological systems and may have large impacts on agri-

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Articles Global climate change is currently affecting many ecological systems and may have large (Dunbar et al.1994).Such changes in global climate patterns portend potentially large effects on both be crucial in the tropics, where most agriculture is in rain-fed systems and climate change has a potentially

  1. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  2. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  3. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National...

  4. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  5. The Need for Biological Computation System Models | GE Global...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2012.10.09 Hello everyone, I'm Maria Zavodszky and I work in the Computational Biology and Biostatistics Lab at GE Global Research in Niskayuna, New York. This being our...

  6. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  7. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price turbines. This second effect is the primary use of the fuel price forecast for the Council's Fifth Power

  8. Weather Forecasting Spring 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hennon, Christopher C.

    ATMS 350 Weather Forecasting Spring 2014 Professor : Dr. Chris Hennon Office : RRO 236C Phone : 232 of atmospheric physics and the ability to include this understanding into modern numerical weather prediction agencies, forecast tools, numerical weather prediction models, model output statistics, ensemble

  9. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ....................................................................................................1-16 Energy Consumption Data...............................................1-15 Data Sources for Energy Demand Forecasting ModelsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report

  10. A software package for the graphical simulation of the Global Positioning System's satellite orbits 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Martinez-Lopez, Eugenio

    1981-01-01

    A SOFTWARE PACKAGE FOR THE GRAPHICAL SIMULATION OF THE GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM'S SATELLITE ORBITS A Thesis by EUGENIO MARTINEZ-LOPEZ Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirement... for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE August 1981 Ma)or Subject: Electrical Engineering Copyright by Eugenio Martinez-Lopez, 1979 A SOFTWARE PACKAGE FOR THE GRAPHICAL SIMULATION OF THE GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM&S SATELLITE ORBITS A Thesis by Eugenio...

  11. Global distribution of N2O emissions from aquatic systems: natural emissions and anthropogenic eects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seitzinger, Sybil

    Global distribution of N2O emissions from aquatic systems: natural emissions and anthropogenic, are increasing due to human activities. Our analysis suggests that a third of global anthropogenic N2O emission the remainder. Over 80% of aquatic anthropogenic N2O emissions are from the Northern Hemisphere mid

  12. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  13. 12.540 Principles of the Global Positioning System, Spring 2003

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Herring, T. (Thomas)

    The aim of this course is to introduce the principles of the Global Positioning System and to demonstrate its application to various aspects of Earth Sciences. The specific content of the course depends each year on the ...

  14. Background: Global Warming, 2009 1. Unequivocally, the climate is warming. Natural systems are affected.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Minnesota, University of

    ." #12;Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transportation Sources in Minnesota A Study gas (GHG) emissions from Minnesota's transportation sector. #12;Research Study Team UniversityBackground: Global Warming, 2009 1. Unequivocally, the climate is warming. Natural systems

  15. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  16. Global DC Power System Market Growth | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QAsource History View New PagesSustainable UrbanKentucky:BoreOpenGilliamOhio:Change | Open EnergyChange: RiskGlobal

  17. TMA Global Wind Energy Systems | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION JEnvironmental Jump to:EA EISTJ Automation Jump to: navigation, search Name TJTMA Global Wind

  18. Global DC Power System Market Analysis | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIXsource History View New Pages RecentPlant <SilverChange Associates JumpGlobal DC Power

  19. Global DC Power System Market Space | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIXsource History View New Pages RecentPlant <SilverChange Associates JumpGlobal DCGlobal

  20. Global Sensitivity Analysis for the Short-term Prediction of System Variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    . These system variables include unit dispatch levels, line flows, and line congestion. Short-term predictions1 Global Sensitivity Analysis for the Short-term Prediction of System Variables Qun Zhou, Student--Short-term prediction of system variables with re- spect to load levels is highly important for market operations

  1. Globalization in the World System: Mapping Change over Time

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Institute for Research on World-Systems: UC Riverside; Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science

    2004-01-01

    in the world system; the analysis of air traffic flows ashave used a network analysis of air travel to indicate

  2. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  3. Warming of the arctic ice-ocean system is faster than the global average since the 1960s

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Jinlun

    Warming of the arctic ice-ocean system is faster than the global average since the 1960s Jinlun.203°C. The warming of the world ocean is associated with an increase in global surface air temperature heat flux. Citation: Zhang, J. (2005), Warming of the arctic ice-ocean system is faster than the global

  4. BULK POWER SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND CONTROL V, AUGUST 26-31, 2001, ONOMICHI, JAPAN Global Hybrid Control of Power Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guo, Yi

    BULK POWER SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND CONTROL V, AUGUST 26-31, 2001, ONOMICHI, JAPAN Global Hybrid Control| This paper presents an overview of recent results on an ap- proach to total control of power systems con- trol for voltage security of power systems, and same ideas for general control [1{6]. In arriving

  5. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  6. Lechowicz, M.J., 2001. Phenology. In the Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change, Volume 2. The Earth System:biological and ecological dimensions of global environmental

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lechowicz, Martin J.

    Lechowicz, M.J., 2001. Phenology. In the Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change, Volume 2. The Earth System:biological and ecological dimensions of global environmental change. Wiley, London. Phenology Martin J. Lechowicz Department of Biology McGill University Montréal, Québec, CANADA Phenology

  7. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore »the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  8. Analysis of energy conversion systems, including material and global warming aspects

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, M.; Reistad, G.M.

    1998-12-31

    This paper addresses a method for the overall evaluation of energy conversion systems, including material and global environmental aspects. To limit the scope of the work reported here, the global environmental aspects have been limited to global warming aspects. A method is presented that uses exergy as an overall evaluation measure of energy conversion systems for their lifetime. The method takes the direct exergy consumption (fuel consumption) of the conventional exergy analyses and adds (1) the exergy of the energy conversion system equipment materials, (2) the fuel production exergy and material exergy, and (3) the exergy needed to recover the total global warming gases (equivalent) of the energy conversion system. This total, termed Total Equivalent Resource Exergy (TERE), provides a measure of the effectiveness of the energy conversion system in its use of natural resources. The results presented here for several example systems illustrate how the method can be used to screen candidate energy conversion systems and perhaps, as data become more available, to optimize systems. It appears that this concept may be particularly useful for comparing systems that have quite different direct energy and/or environmental impacts. This work should be viewed in the context of being primarily a concept paper in that the lack of detailed data available to the authors at this time limits the accuracy of the overall results. The authors are working on refinements to data used in the evaluation.

  9. Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems (CASoS) engineering and foundations for global design.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brodsky, Nancy S.; Finley, Patrick D.; Beyeler, Walter Eugene; Brown, Theresa Jean; Linebarger, John Michael; Moore, Thomas W.; Glass, Robert John, Jr.; Maffitt, S. Louise; Mitchell, Michael David; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2012-01-01

    Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems, or CASoS, are vastly complex ecological, sociological, economic and/or technical systems which must be recognized and reckoned with to design a secure future for the nation and the world. Design within CASoS requires the fostering of a new discipline, CASoS Engineering, and the building of capability to support it. Towards this primary objective, we created the Phoenix Pilot as a crucible from which systemization of the new discipline could emerge. Using a wide range of applications, Phoenix has begun building both theoretical foundations and capability for: the integration of Applications to continuously build common understanding and capability; a Framework for defining problems, designing and testing solutions, and actualizing these solutions within the CASoS of interest; and an engineering Environment required for 'the doing' of CASoS Engineering. In a secondary objective, we applied CASoS Engineering principles to begin to build a foundation for design in context of Global CASoS

  10. Global Trees: A Framework for Linked Data Structures on Distributed Memory Parallel Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Larkins, D. B.; Dinan, James S.; Krishnamoorthy, Sriram; Parthasarathy, Srinivasan; Rountev, Atanas; Sadayappan, Ponnuswamy

    2008-11-17

    This paper describes the Global Trees (GT) system that provides a multi-layered interface to a global address space view of distributed tree data structures, while providing scalable performance on distributed memory systems. The Global Trees system utilizes coarse-grained data movement to enhance locality and communication efficiency. We describe the design and implementation of GT, illustrate its use in the context of a gravitational simulation application, and provide experimental results that demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach. The key benefits of using this system include efficient sharedmemory style programming of distributed trees, tree-specific optimizations for data access and computation, and the ability to customize many aspects of GT to optimize application performance.

  11. Flood management in a complex river basin with a real-time decision support system based on hydrological forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lenstra, Arjen K.

    ENAC/ Flood management in a complex river basin with a real-time decision support system based System MINDS proposes the optimal hydropower plants management for flood peak reduction PREDICTING FLOODS for population safety and! Computational program: Routing System MINERVE Run-off model Infiltration model

  12. The global distribution of large subaerial distributary fluvial systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gwynn, David Wilkinson

    2002-01-01

    of these features was presented by Wilkinson et al. (1997). This thesis attempts to provide a more detailed characterization and classification of these features. Fourteen systems in South America, Africa, and Asia were examined using Shuttle photography and AVHRR...

  13. Design and global optimization of high-efficiency thermophotovoltaic systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bermel, Peter A.

    Despite their great promise, small experimental thermophotovoltaic (TPV) systems at 1000 K generally exhibit extremely low power conversion efficiencies (approximately 1%), due to heat losses such as thermal emission of ...

  14. GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION OF MULTIPHASE FLOW NETWORKS IN OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johansen, Tor Arne

    1 GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION OF MULTIPHASE FLOW NETWORKS IN OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION SYSTEMS MSc. Hans, NTNU, Trondheim, Norway Abstract A mathematical program for finding the optimal oil production rates in an oil production system is developed. Each well may be manipulated by injecting lift gas and adjusting

  15. Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawrence, Ramon

    Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence Department of Computer Science on the application of neural networks in forecasting stock market prices. With their ability to discover patterns in nonlinear and chaotic systems, neural networks offer the ability to predict market directions more

  16. Improving automotive battery sales forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bulusu, Vinod

    2015-01-01

    Improvement in sales forecasting allows firms not only to respond quickly to customers' needs but also to reduce inventory costs, ultimately increasing their profits. Sales forecasts have been studied extensively to improve ...

  17. Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  18. Global Entrainment of Transcriptional Systems to Periodic Inputs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sontag, Eduardo

    of models of transcriptional systems as well as constructs of interest in synthetic biology. A self permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author from the environment that then acts as a pacemaker [1]. Moreover, such an entrainment can be obtained

  19. Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast, 2010 - 2020 Home > Groups > Increase Natural Gas Energy Efficiency John55364's picture...

  20. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors

  1. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  2. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    2000-01-01

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  3. Short-Term Load Forecasting at the Local Level using Smart Meter Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tronci, Enrico

    ]; electric vehicle integration [8]; and microgrid and virtual power plant applications [7], [11]. In addition, forecast uncertainty, power demand. I. INTRODUCTION Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is the forecasting is considered to be critical for power system operation, particularly for energy balancing, energy market

  4. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  5. Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning Vivien Mallet,1,2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mallet, Vivien

    Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning algorithms Vivien Mallet,1,2 Gilles Stoltz,3; published 13 March 2009. [1] We apply machine learning algorithms to perform sequential aggregation of ozone forecasts. The latter rely on a multimodel ensemble built for ozone forecasting with the modeling system

  6. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutledge, Steven

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary microbursts than in many previously documented microbursts. Alignment of Doppler radar data to reports of wind-related damage to electrical power infrastructure in Phoenix allowed a comparison of microburst wind damage

  7. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  8. Improving Energy Use Forecast for Campus Micro-grids using Indirect Indicators Department of Computer Science

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hwang, Kai

    peak demand periods using pricing incentives. Reliable building energy forecast models can help predictImproving Energy Use Forecast for Campus Micro-grids using Indirect Indicators Saima Aman prasanna@usc.edu Abstract--The rising global demand for energy is best addressed by adopting and promoting

  9. Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koomey, Jonathan G.

    2010-01-01

    System (REEPS 2.1) , developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), is a forecasting model

  10. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  11. A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

    2011-08-26

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

  12. Application of the Global Positioning System to the Measurement of Overhead Power Transmission Conductor Sag

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    operating regime [1-5]. In a deregulated electric utility environment, transmission circuit ratings assumeApplication of the Global Positioning System to the Measurement of Overhead Power Transmission Abstract This paper describes a method to directly meas- ure the physical sag of overhead electric power

  13. Hardware/Software Co-design of Global Cloud System Resolving Michael F. Wehner 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oliker, Leonid

    with rapid com- putational and observational advances allowing long-term sim- ulation of the climate system-high resolution climate model specifications at relatively affordable cost and power considerations. A strawman with sources of solar and infrared radiation (Solomon et al. 2007). Current global climate models used

  14. System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets - Vol. II, Model Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    The second volume provides a data implementation guide that lists all naming conventions and model constraints. In addition, Volume 1 has two appendixes that provide a schematic of the System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE) structure and a listing of the source code, respectively.

  15. version 11apr11a Geopolitics of the Global Oil System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    O'Donnell, Tom

    , types of oil and gas contracts and the concepts of rents, rentismo, the resource curse and Dutch diseaseSYLLABUS version 11apr11a Geopolitics of the Global Oil System The New School University Graduate-group blogs: 1. China Oil Affairs http://chinaoilaffairs.blogspot.com/ 2. Rentismo & Dutch Disease http

  16. The global distribution of mineral dust and its impacts on the climate system: A review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hickman, Mark

    The global distribution of mineral dust and its impacts on the climate system: A review O. Alizadeh Received in revised form 5 November 2013 Accepted 6 November 2013 Available online 20 November 2013 Mineral. Current understanding of spatial and temporal variations of mineral dust, as well as its impacts

  17. System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets - Vol. I, Model Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    Documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of projections for the International Energy Outlook. The first volume of this report describes the System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE) methodology and provides an in-depth explanation of the equations of the model.

  18. C h a p t e r Toward a Global Ocean System for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chang, Grace C.

    and stratification of the upper ocean are driven by the penetration of solar radiation. Absorption and scatteringC h a p t e r 9 Toward a Global Ocean System for Measurements of Optical Properties Using Remote properties of the ocean are important for resolving several is- sues, including primary productivity

  19. Design and global optimization of high-efficiency solar thermal systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    .5298) Photonic crystals; (350.6050) Solar energy. References and links 1. W. Spirkl and H. Ries, "Solar. Harder and P. Wurfel, "Theoretical limits of thermophotovoltaic solar energy conversion," Semicond. SciDesign and global optimization of high-efficiency solar thermal systems with tungsten cermets David

  20. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  1. Description of Atmospheric Conditions at the Pierre Auger Observatory using the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abreu, P.; Aglietta, M.; Ahlers, M.; Ahn, E.J.; Albuquerque, I.F.M.; Allard, D.; Allekotte, I.; Allen, J.; Allison, P.; Almela, A.; Alvarez Castillo, J.; /Mexico U., ICN /Santiago de Compostela U.

    2012-01-01

    Atmospheric conditions at the site of a cosmic ray observatory must be known for reconstructing observed extensive air showers. The Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) is a global atmospheric model predicated on meteorological measurements and numerical weather predictions. GDAS provides altitude-dependent profiles of the main state variables of the atmosphere like temperature, pressure, and humidity. The original data and their application to the air shower reconstruction of the Pierre Auger Observatory are described. By comparisons with radiosonde and weather station measurements obtained on-site in Malargue and averaged monthly models, the utility of the GDAS data is shown.

  2. Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Imperial College, London

    Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes Marcel C. Guenther and Jeremy T. The global emergence of city bicycle hire schemes has re- cently received a lot of attention of future bicycle migration trends, as these assist service providers to ensure availability of bicycles

  3. An object-oriented process tracking system for a distributed system without global clock 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Viswanathan, Rajeswaran

    1995-01-01

    of bugs. Process tracking and ordering is an essential part of distributed debugging. Many hardware techniques have been explored in the past to maintain a precise global clock to track processes. This thesis proposes an object-oriented software solution...

  4. Online short-term solar power forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

    2009-10-15

    This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

  5. Global search tool for the Advanced Photon Source Integrated Relational Model of Installed Systems (IRMIS) database.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Quock, D. E. R.; Cianciarulo, M. B.; APS Engineering Support Division; Purdue Univ.

    2007-01-01

    The Integrated Relational Model of Installed Systems (IRMIS) is a relational database tool that has been implemented at the Advanced Photon Source to maintain an updated account of approximately 600 control system software applications, 400,000 process variables, and 30,000 control system hardware components. To effectively display this large amount of control system information to operators and engineers, IRMIS was initially built with nine Web-based viewers: Applications Organizing Index, IOC, PLC, Component Type, Installed Components, Network, Controls Spares, Process Variables, and Cables. However, since each viewer is designed to provide details from only one major category of the control system, the necessity for a one-stop global search tool for the entire database became apparent. The user requirements for extremely fast database search time and ease of navigation through search results led to the choice of Asynchronous JavaScript and XML (AJAX) technology in the implementation of the IRMIS global search tool. Unique features of the global search tool include a two-tier level of displayed search results, and a database data integrity validation and reporting mechanism.

  6. FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake Erie

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake Forecasting System (GLCFS) can be used to validate wind forecasts for the Great Lakes using observed weather prediction step-coordinate Eta Model are able to forecast winds for the Great Lakes region, using

  7. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  8. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  9. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  10. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    and M. Cony, “Prediction of global solar irradiance based onand C. K. Chan, “Prediction of hourly solar radiation usingand K. C. Chee, “Prediction of hourly solar radiation using

  11. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking WithTelecentricNCubicthe FOIA?ResourceMeasurement BuoyForecasting Sign

  12. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    s economy. Demand Forecasts The three energy futures wereto meet the forecast demand in each energy futurE2. e e1£~energy saved through improved appliance efficiencies. Also icit in our demand forecasts

  13. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric  Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research.

  14. Coal supply/demand, 1980 to 2000. Task 3. Resource applications industrialization system data base. Final review draft. [USA; forecasting 1980 to 2000; sector and regional analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fournier, W.M.; Hasson, V.

    1980-10-10

    This report is a compilation of data and forecasts resulting from an analysis of the coal market and the factors influencing supply and demand. The analyses performed for the forecasts were made on an end-use-sector basis. The sectors analyzed are electric utility, industry demand for steam coal, industry demand for metallurgical coal, residential/commercial, coal demand for synfuel production, and exports. The purpose is to provide coal production and consumption forecasts that can be used to perform detailed, railroad company-specific coal transportation analyses. To make the data applicable for the subsequent transportation analyses, the forecasts have been made for each end-use sector on a regional basis. The supply regions are: Appalachia, East Interior, West Interior and Gulf, Northern Great Plains, and Mountain. The demand regions are the same as the nine Census Bureau regions. Coal production and consumption in the United States are projected to increase dramatically in the next 20 years due to increasing requirements for energy and the unavailability of other sources of energy to supply a substantial portion of this increase. Coal comprises 85 percent of the US recoverable fossil energy reserves and could be mined to supply the increasing energy demands of the US. The NTPSC study found that the additional traffic demands by 1985 may be met by the railways by the way of improved signalization, shorter block sections, centralized traffic control, and other modernization methods without providing for heavy line capacity works. But by 2000 the incremental traffic on some of the major corridors was projected to increase very significantly and is likely to call for special line capacity works involving heavy investment.

  15. Price forecasting for notebook computers 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutherford, Derek Paul

    1997-01-01

    of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach...

  16. Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

    2007-01-01

    Economy, 95(5), 1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri,Notion of Quantiles for Multivariate Data,” Journal of thePress, United Kingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner,

  17. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  18. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  19. A LEO-Based Solar-Shade System to Mitigate Global Warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rahul Suresh; Andrew Meulenberg

    2015-04-20

    The development of a Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) based solar-shade system, as part of a technically- and financially-viable multipurpose system to provide long-term solutions to global warming and the energy crisis is discussed. The proposed solar-shade and power system would be enabled by the development of a previously-proposed less-expensive, environment-friendly, space-elevator system to lift mass into space. The solar shades, even during their early deployment and growth in LEO, would provide benefits such as reduction of space-debris and depletion of the Van Allen radiation belts.The Terrestrial temperature profile has been approximated for each latitudinal zone with a one-dimensional model. A shade ring at an altitude of 2000-4000 km, consisting of thin-film mega panels totaling up to 4% of the earths surface area (to block ~1% of insolation), is proposed. The effects of such near-polar rings on the global temperature pattern has been examined using the simple model. Specific emphasis has been laid on this effect in the Polar Regions. One such proposed ring could reduce the peak summer temperature of the Polar Regions (80-90 degree latitude) by almost 3K. The tilting of the solar-shades, to reduce their cooling effect at the poles and to increase it in the near-polar regions, is recommended.

  20. A LEO-Based Solar-Shade System to Mitigate Global Warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Suresh, Rahul

    2015-01-01

    The development of a Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) based solar-shade system, as part of a technically- and financially-viable multipurpose system to provide long-term solutions to global warming and the energy crisis is discussed. The proposed solar-shade and power system would be enabled by the development of a previously-proposed less-expensive, environment-friendly, space-elevator system to lift mass into space. The solar shades, even during their early deployment and growth in LEO, would provide benefits such as reduction of space-debris and depletion of the Van Allen radiation belts.The Terrestrial temperature profile has been approximated for each latitudinal zone with a one-dimensional model. A shade ring at an altitude of 2000-4000 km, consisting of thin-film mega panels totaling up to 4% of the earths surface area (to block ~1% of insolation), is proposed. The effects of such near-polar rings on the global temperature pattern has been examined using the simple model. Specific emphasis has been laid on this e...

  1. Turning quicksand into bedrock : understanding the dynamic effects of disease-focused global health aid on health systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Newkirk, Brian J

    2009-01-01

    This thesis asks one basic question: how do "vertical" disease- or intervention-focused global health programs impact the underlying health systems of the nations they serve? Vertical programs-health aid focused on a ...

  2. Integration of the global positioning system and geographical information systems for traffic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kaiserslautern, Universität

    Michael A. P. Taylor, Jeremy E. Woolley and Rocco Zito Transport Systems Centre, School of Geoinformatics

  3. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  4. An Enhanced Engineering Perspective of Global Climate Systems and Statistical Formulation of Terrestrial CO2 Exchanges

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dai, Yuanshun [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Baek, Seung H. [Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. Korea; Garcia-Diza, Alberto [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Tsui, Kwok [Georgia Institute of Technology; Zhuang, Jie [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Yang, Bai [ORNL

    2012-01-01

    This paper designs a comprehensive approach based on the engineering machine/system concept, to model, analyze, and assess the level of CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, which is an important factor in understanding changes in global climate. The focus of this article is on spatial patterns and on the correlation between levels of CO2 fluxes and a variety of influencing factors in eco-environments. The engineering/machine concept used is a system protocol that includes the sequential activities of design, test, observe, and model. This concept is applied to explicitly include various influencing factors and interactions associated with CO2 fluxes. To formulate effective models of a large and complex climate system, this article introduces a modeling technique that will be referred to as Stochastic Filtering Analysis of Variance (SFANOVA). The CO2 flux data observed from some sites of AmeriFlux are used to illustrate and validate the analysis, prediction and globalization capabilities of the proposed engineering approach and the SF-ANOVA technology. The SF-ANOVA modeling approach was compared to stepwise regression, ridge regression, and neural networks. The comparison indicated that the proposed approach is a valid and effective tool with similar accuracy and less complexity than the other procedures.

  5. GFDL's ESM2 Global Coupled ClimateCarbon Earth System Models. Part I: Physical Formulation and Baseline Simulation Characteristics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wittenberg, Andrew

    GFDL's ESM2 Global Coupled Climate­Carbon Earth System Models. Part I: Physical Formulation coupled carbon­climate Earth System Models, ESM2M and ESM2G, are described. These models demonstrate al. 2002; Delworth et al. 2006). Our approach has been to de- velop two Earth System Models

  6. Global Control of Complex Power Systems David J. Hill 1 , Yi Guo 2 , Mats Larsson 3 , and Youyi Wang 4

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guo, Yi

    Global Control of Complex Power Systems David J. Hill 1 , Yi Guo 2 , Mats Larsson 3 , and Youyi to total control of power systems. It is upwards compatible from any conventional or prior advanced control voltage control of power systems. 1 Introduction This chapter describes progress towards a general

  7. Availability in Globally Distributed Storage Systems Daniel Ford, Francois Labelle, Florentina I. Popovici, Murray Stokely, Van-Anh Truong

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cortes, Corinna

    Availability in Globally Distributed Storage Systems Daniel Ford, Franc¸ois Labelle, Florentina I studies of individual components of storage systems, such as disk drives, relatively little has been characterize the availability properties of cloud storage systems based on an extensive one year study

  8. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    water heating systems, Heating Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems, wind speed predictions, control in power

  9. Development of the first nonhydrostatic nested-grid grid-point global atmospheric modeling system on parallel machines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kao, C.Y.J.; Langley, D.L.; Reisner, J.M.; Smith, W.S.

    1998-11-01

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Evaluating the importance of global and regional climate response to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases requires a comprehensive global atmospheric modeling system (GAMS) capable of simulations over a wide range of atmospheric circulations, from complex terrain to continental scales, on high-performance computers. Unfortunately, all of the existing global circulation models (GCMs) do not meet this requirements, because they suffer from one or more of the following three shortcomings: (1) use of the hydrostatic approximation, which makes the models potentially ill-posed; (2) lack of a nested-grid (or multi-grid) capability, which makes it difficult to consistently evaluate the regional climate response to the global warming, and (3) spherical spectral (opposed to grid-point finite-difference) representation of model variables, which hinders model performance for parallel machine applications. The end product of the research is a highly modularized, multi-gridded, self-calibratable (for further parameterization development) global modeling system with state-of-the-science physics and chemistry. This system will be suitable for a suite of atmospheric problems: from local circulations to climate, from thunderstorms to global cloud radiative forcing, from urban pollution to global greenhouse trace gases, and from the guiding of field experiments to coupling with ocean models. It will also provide a unique testbed for high-performance computing architecture.

  10. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  11. Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

  12. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  13. Value of global weather sensors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Canavan, G.H.

    1998-12-23

    Long-range weather predictions have great scientific and economic potential, but require precise global observations. Small balloon transponders could serve as lagrangian trace particles to measure the vector wind, which is the primary input to long-range numerical forecasts. The wind field is difficult to measure; it is at present poorly sampled globally. Distance measuring equipment (DME) triangulation of signals from roughly a million transponders could sample it with sufficient accuracy to support {approximately} two week forecasts. Such forecasts would have great scientific and economic potential which is estimated below. DME uses small, low-power transmitters on each transponder to broadcast short, low-power messages that are detected by several small receivers and forwarded to the ground station for processing of position, velocity, and state information. Thus, the transponder is little more than a balloon with a small radio, which should only weigh a few grams and cost a few dollars.

  14. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study...

  15. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  16. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts in the US.2013: Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and asatellite-derived irradiances: Description and validation.

  17. Non-equilibrium quantum systems: Divergence between global and local descriptions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pedro D. Manrique; Ferney Rodriguez; Luis Quiroga; Neil F. Johnson

    2015-02-24

    Even photosynthesis -- the most basic natural phenomenon underlying Life on Earth -- involves the non-trivial processing of excitations at the pico- and femtosecond scales during light-harvesting. The desire to understand such natural phenomena, as well as interpret the output from ultrafast experimental probes, creates an urgent need for accurate quantitative theories of open quantum systems. However it is unclear how best to generalize the well-established assumptions of an isolated system, particularly under non-equilibrium conditions. Here we compare two popular approaches: a description in terms of a direct product of the states of each individual system (i.e. a local approach) versus the use of new states resulting from diagonalizing the whole Hamiltonian (i.e. a global approach). We show that their equivalence fails when the system is open, in particular under the experimentally ubiquitous condition of a temperature gradient. By solving for the steady-state populations and calculating the heat flux as a test observable, we uncover stark differences between the formulations. This divergence highlights the need to establish rigorous ranges of applicability for such methods in modeling nanoscale transfer phenomena -- including during the light-harvesting process in photosynthesis.

  18. The Causes of Trade Globalization: A Political-Economy and World-Systems Approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kwon, Roy

    2011-01-01

    H. 2002. ?Europe and the Causes of Globalization, 1790-2000?there are a number of causes of trade, the most important ofwe now find that it ?Granger causes? trade globalization. In

  19. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    0: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise,...

  20. Use of global navigation satellite systems for monitoring deformations of water-development works

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kaftan, V. I.; Ustinov, A. V.

    2013-05-15

    The feasibility of using global radio-navigation satellite systems (GNSS) to improve functional safety of high-liability water-development works - dams at hydroelectric power plants, and, consequently, the safety of the population in the surrounding areas is examined on the basis of analysis of modern publications. Characteristics for determination of displacements and deformations with use of GNSS, and also in a complex with other types of measurements, are compared. It is demonstrated that combined monitoring of deformations of the ground surface of the region, and engineering and technical structures is required to ensure the functional safety of HPP, and reliable metrologic assurance of measurements is also required to obtain actual characteristics of the accuracy and effectiveness of GNSS observations.

  1. Global warming: Science or politics? Part 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dorweiler, V.P.

    1998-05-01

    Supplementing the conclusion that ``there has been a discernible influence of human activity on global climate`` is a set of dire consequences to the globe and human population. One consequence is the spread of tropical diseases. It has not been concluded whether the spread of disease is due to global conditions or to opening of tropical forests to commerce, allowing spread by travelers. Whether these forecasts abet the claimed relation of human activity to global warming, they are not a new phenomenon. In the space of several decades, dire consequences have been forecast in three sectors: natural resource consumption, energy resources and environmental fate. These three areas are reviewed.

  2. Preliminary Concept of Operations for a Global Cylinder Identification and Monitoring System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whitaker, J. M.; White-Horton, J. L.; Morgan, J. B.

    2013-08-01

    This report describes a preliminary concept of operations for a Global Cylinder Identification and Monitoring System that could improve the efficiency of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in conducting its current inspection activities and could provide a capability to substantially increase its ability to detect credible diversion scenarios and undeclared production pathways involving UF6 cylinders. There exist concerns that a proliferant State with access to enrichment technology could obtain a cylinder containing natural or low-enriched uranium hexafluoride (UF6) and produce a significant quantity (SQ)1 of highly enriched uranium in as little as 30 days. The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) through the Next Generation Safeguards Initiative sponsored a multi-laboratory team to develop an integrated system that provides for detecting scenarios involving 1) diverting an entire declared cylinder for enrichment at a clandestine facility, 2) misusing a declared cylinder at a safeguarded facility, and 3) using an undeclared cylinder at a safeguarded facility. An important objective in developing this integrated system was to improve the timeliness for detecting the cylinder diversion and undeclared production scenarios. Developing this preliminary concept required in-depth analyses of current operational and safeguards practices at conversion, enrichment, and fuel fabrication facilities. The analyses evaluated the processing, movement, and storage of cylinders at the facilities; the movement of cylinders between facilities (including cylinder fabrication); and the misuse of safeguarded facilities.

  3. FORECASTING OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES USING A KILO-MEMBER ENSEMBLE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schubert, Wayne H.

    system using an efficient multigrid barotropic vorticity equation model (MBAR). Five perturbation classes Advisor Department Head ii #12;ABSTRACT OF THESIS FORECASTING OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES USING A KILO forecasts. These increases have been largely driven by improved numerical weather prediction models

  4. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  5. Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nocedal, Jorge

    Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization M. Fisher J weather prediction centers to produce the initial conditions for 7- to 10-day weather fore- casts, with particular reference to the system in operation at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. 1

  6. Modeling the Oil Transition: A Summary of the Proceedings of the DOE/EPA Workshop on the Economic and Environmental Implications of Global Energy Transitions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greene, David L

    2007-02-01

    The global energy system faces sweeping changes in the next few decades, with potentially critical implications for the global economy and the global environment. It is important that global institutions have the tools necessary to predict, analyze and plan for such massive change. This report summarizes the proceedings of an international workshop concerning methods of forecasting, analyzing, and planning for global energy transitions and their economic and environmental consequences. A specific case, it focused on the transition from conventional to unconventional oil and other energy sources likely to result from a peak in non-OPEC and/or global production of conventional oil. Leading energy models from around the world in government, academia and the private sector met, reviewed the state-of-the-art of global energy modeling and evaluated its ability to analyze and predict large-scale energy transitions.

  7. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  8. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  9. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

  10. Loschmidt echo in many-spin systems: contrasting time-scales of local and global measurements

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pablo R. Zangara; Denise Bendersky; Patricia R. Levstein; Horacio M. Pastawski

    2015-08-28

    A local excitation in a quantum many-spin system evolves deterministically. A time-reversal procedure, involving the inversion of the signs of every energy and interaction, should produce the excitation revival. This idea, experimentally coined in NMR, embodies the concept of the Loschmidt echo (LE). While such an implementation involves a single spin autocorrelation $M_{1,1}$, i.e. a local LE, theoretical efforts have focused on the study of the recovery probability of a complete many-body state, referred here as global or many-body LE $M_{MB}$. Here, we analyze the relation between these magnitudes, in what concerns to their characteristic time scales and their dependence on the number of spins $N$. We show that the global LE can be understood, to some extent, as the simultaneous occurrence of $N$ independent local LEs, i.e. $M_{MB}\\sim \\left( M_{1,1}\\right) ^{N/4}$. This extensive hypothesis is exact for very short times and confirmed numerically beyond such a regime. Furthermore, we discuss a general picture of the decay of $M_{1,1}$ as a consequence of the interplay between the time scale that characterizes the reversible interactions ($T_{2}$) and that of the perturbation ($\\tau _{\\Sigma }$). Our analysis suggests that the short time decay, characterized by the time scale $\\tau _{\\Sigma }$, is greatly enhanced by the complex processes that occur beyond $T_{2}$ . This would ultimately lead to the experimentally observed $T_{3},$ which was found to be roughly independent of $\\tau _{\\Sigma }$ but closely tied to $T_{2}$.

  11. Final Technical Report for "Radiative Heating Associated with Tropical Convective Cloud Systems: Its Importance at Meso and Global Scales"

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schumacher, Courtney

    2012-12-13

    Heating associated with tropical cloud systems drive the global circulation. The overall research objectives of this project were to i) further quantify and understand the importance of heating in tropical convective cloud systems with innovative observational techniques, and ii) use global models to determine the large-scale circulation response to variability in tropical heating profiles, including anvil and cirrus cloud radiative forcing. The innovative observational techniques used a diversity of radar systems to create a climatology of vertical velocities associated with the full tropical convective cloud spectrum along with a dissection of the of the total heating profile of tropical cloud systems into separate components (i.e., the latent, radiative, and eddy sensible heating). These properties were used to validate storm-scale and global climate models (GCMs) and were further used to force two different types of GCMs (one with and one without interactive physics). While radiative heating was shown to account for about 20% of the total heating and did not have a strong direct response on the global circulation, the indirect response was important via its impact on convection, esp. in how radiative heating impacts the tilt of heating associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a phenomenon that accounts for most tropical intraseasonal variability. This work shows strong promise in determining the sensitivity of climate models and climate processes to heating variations associated with cloud systems.

  12. Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    for the same data. Two methods are described for forecasting daily peak loads up to one week ahead through, including generator unit commitment, hydro-thermal coordination, short-term maintenance, fuel allocation forecasting accuracies. STLF forecasting covers the daily peak load, total daily energy, and daily load curve

  13. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  14. Research Statement of Hamsa Balakrishnan The air transportation system is a large, complex, global system that transports over 2.1 billion

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Research Statement of Hamsa Balakrishnan The air transportation system is a large, complex, global system that transports over 2.1 billion passengers each year. Air traffic delays have become a huge to the Joint Economic Committee of the US Senate, domestic air traffic delays in 2007 cost airlines over $19

  15. Research Statement of Hamsa Balakrishnan The air transportation system is a complex, global system that transports over 2.1 billion

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gummadi, Ramakrishna

    is important because of the high costs of delays and pollution today, as well as the projected doubling in airResearch Statement of Hamsa Balakrishnan The air transportation system is a complex, global system that transports over 2.1 billion passengers each year. Air traffic delays have become a huge problem

  16. Energy Systems Engineering for Global Sustainability, Instructor Iddo Wernick Spring 2014 Syllabus (subject to refinement/updating)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wolberg, George

    . Characterization and analysis of conventional sources of energy and fuels production including refineries, fossil law of thermodynamics o Equivalence between different forms of energy o Natural Examples (nonEnergy Systems Engineering for Global Sustainability, Instructor Iddo Wernick Spring 2014 Syllabus

  17. Global warming and its implications for conservation. 1. Overview.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Creel, Scott

    Global warming and its implications for conservation. 1. Overview. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) consensus forecast for climate is an increase in global temperature by 2 - 5o C of atmospheric CO2 would yield an increase in global mean temperature of T2X = 3.5o C (6.7 o F, with 95

  18. Utilize cloud computing to support dust storm forecasting Qunying Huanga

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Songqing

    storm forecasting operational system should support a disruptive fashion by scaling up to enable high to save energy and costs. With the capability of providing a large, elastic, and virtualized pool and property damages since 1995 (Figure 1). Deaths and injuries are usually caused by car accidents, because

  19. MET 416: TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING Spring Semester 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    current (nowcasting) and expected weather, using all available real-time operational weather data Exam 4/9 Summer trade-wind weather based on HaRP 4/11-16 Large-scale influences, Diurnal cycle to the development of tropical storm systems and mesoscale weather. Lectures will include a forecasting perspective

  20. A comparison study of data assimilation algorithms for ozone forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mallet, Vivien

    A comparison study of data assimilation algorithms for ozone forecasts Lin Wu,1,2 V. Mallet,1,2 M assimilation schemes with the aim of designing suitable assimilation algorithms for short- range ozone but stable systems with high uncertainties (e.g., over 20% for ozone daily peaks (Hanna et al., 1998; Mallet

  1. Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cerpa, Alberto E.

    Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

  2. Importance of bioenergy markets for the development of the global energy system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    and gas dominate the global energy supply, covering more than 80% of the total primary energy supply in the global energy supply. Total biomass primary energy supply was 51 EJ in 2008, of which more than 60 manner contribute with as much as 160- 270 EJ to the world's primary energy supply by 2050 [2]. However

  3. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  4. Forecasting wind speed financial return

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

  5. Hybrid robust predictive optimization method of power system dispatch

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Chandra, Ramu Sharat (Niskayuna, NY); Liu, Yan (Ballston Lake, NY); Bose, Sumit (Niskayuna, NY); de Bedout, Juan Manuel (West Glenville, NY)

    2011-08-02

    A method of power system dispatch control solves power system dispatch problems by integrating a larger variety of generation, load and storage assets, including without limitation, combined heat and power (CHP) units, renewable generation with forecasting, controllable loads, electric, thermal and water energy storage. The method employs a predictive algorithm to dynamically schedule different assets in order to achieve global optimization and maintain the system normal operation.

  6. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16

    and encouragement. I am very grateful to Lucille and Michael Hobbs for their friendship, understanding and financial support. Finally, thank you to Tom Decker, Pat Jackson and Brian Zellar for all their contributions and hard work on this project... below: 1. Na?ve 2. Linear Regression 3. Moving Average 4. Exponential 5. Double exponential The na?ve forecasting method assumes that more recent data values are the best predictors of future values. The model is ? t+1 = Y t . Where ? t...

  7. A practical global distortion correction method for an image intensifier based x-ray fluoroscopy system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gutierrez, Luis F.; Ozturk, Cengizhan; McVeigh, Elliot R.; Lederman, Robert J. [Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland 21205 and Lab of Cardiac Energetics, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 20892 (United States); Cardiovascular Branch, Division of Intramural Research, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 20892 and Biomedical Engineering Institute, Bogazici University, Istanbul (Turkey); Lab of Cardiac Energetics, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 20892 and Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland 21205 (United States); Cardiovascular Branch, Division of Intramural Research, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 20892 (United States)

    2008-03-15

    X-ray images acquired on systems with image intensifiers (II) exhibit characteristic distortion which is due to both external and internal factors. The distortion is dependent on the orientation of the II, a fact particularly relevant to II's mounted on C arms which have several degrees of freedom of motion. Previous descriptions of distortion correction strategies have relied on a dense sampling of the C-arm orientation space, and as such have been limited mostly to a single arc of the primary angle, {alpha}. We present a new method which smooths the trajectories of the segmented vertices of the grid phantom as a function of {alpha} prior to solving the two-dimensional warping problem. It also shows that the same residual errors of distortion correction could be achieved without fitting the trajectories of the grid vertices, but instead applying the previously described global method of distortion correction, followed by directly smoothing the values of the polynomial coefficients as functions of the C-arm orientation parameters. When this technique was applied to a series of test images at arbitrary {alpha}, the root-mean-square (RMS) residual error was 0.22 pixels. The new method was extended to three degrees of freedom of the C-arm motion: the primary angle, {alpha}; the secondary angle, {beta}; and the source-to-intensifier distance, {lambda}. Only 75 images were used to characterize the distortion for the following ranges: {alpha}, {+-}45 deg. ({delta}{alpha}=22.5 deg.); {beta}, {+-}36 deg. ({delta}{beta}=18 deg.); {lambda}, 98-118 cm ({delta}{lambda}=10 cm). When evaluated on a series of test images acquired at arbitrary ({alpha},{beta},{lambda}), the RMS residual error was 0.33 pixels. This method is targeted at applications such as guidance of catheter-based interventions and treatment planning for brachytherapy, which require distortion-corrected images over a large range of C-arm orientations.

  8. Collaborative Proposal: Transforming How Climate System Models are Used: A Global, Multi-Resolution Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Estep, Donald

    2013-04-15

    Despite the great interest in regional modeling for both weather and climate applications, regional modeling is not yet at the stage that it can be used routinely and effectively for climate modeling of the ocean. The overarching goal of this project is to transform how climate models are used by developing and implementing a robust, efficient, and accurate global approach to regional ocean modeling. To achieve this goal, we will use theoretical and computational means to resolve several basic modeling and algorithmic issues. The first task is to develop techniques for transitioning between parameterized and high-fidelity regional ocean models as the discretization grid transitions from coarse to fine regions. The second task is to develop estimates for the error in scientifically relevant quantities of interest that provide a systematic way to automatically determine where refinement is needed in order to obtain accurate simulations of dynamic and tracer transport in regional ocean models. The third task is to develop efficient, accurate, and robust time-stepping schemes for variable spatial resolution discretizations used in regional ocean models of dynamics and tracer transport. The fourth task is to develop frequency-dependent eddy viscosity finite element and discontinuous Galerkin methods and study their performance and effectiveness for simulation of dynamics and tracer transport in regional ocean models. These four projects share common difficulties and will be approach using a common computational and mathematical toolbox. This is a multidisciplinary project involving faculty and postdocs from Colorado State University, Florida State University, and Penn State University along with scientists from Los Alamos National Laboratory. The completion of the tasks listed within the discussion of the four sub-projects will go a long way towards meeting our goal of developing superior regional ocean models that will transform how climate system models are used.

  9. Using Climate Predictions in Great Lakes Hydrologic Forecasts T. E. Croley II1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lakes water levels cause extensive flooding, erosion, and damage to shorelines, shipping, and hydropower the forecasting system utility to decision makers and potential impacts in practical applications. CLIMATE EFFECTS

  10. Testing a Coupled Global-limited-area Data Assimilation System Using Observations from the 2004 Pacific Typhoon Season 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Holt, Christina

    2012-10-19

    Tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity forecasts have improved in recent years due to increased model resolution, improved data assimilation, and the rapid increase in the number of routinely assimilated observations ...

  11. Global warming from HFC

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, E.

    1998-11-01

    Using a variety of public sources, a computer model of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerant emissions in the UK has been developed. This model has been used to estimate and project emissions in 2010 under three types of scenarios: (1) business as usual; (2) voluntary agreements to reduce refrigerant leakage; and (3) comprehensive regulations to reduce refrigerant leakage. This resulting forecast is that UK emissions of HFC refrigerants in 2010 will account for 2% to 4% of the UK`s 1990 baseline global warming contribution.

  12. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  13. Weather Forecasts are for Wimps: Why Water Resource Managers Do Not Use Climate Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rayner, Steve; Lach, Denise; Ingram, Helen

    2005-01-01

    and Winter, S. G. : 1960, Weather Information and EconomicThe ENSO Signal 7, 4–6. WEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPSWEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPS ? : WHY WATER RESOURCE

  14. Research Study - Global Enterprise VoIP Equipment Market Forecasts...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    we deeply analyzed the world's main region market conditions that including the product price, profit, capacity, production, capacity utilization, supply, demand and industry...

  15. Global GPS Phones Market Size, Segmentation, Demand Forecast...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    we deeply analyzed the world's main region market conditions that including the product price, profit, capacity, production, capacity utilization, supply, demand and industry...

  16. Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Schuermann, Til; Smith, L Vanessa

    , was the price of crude oil. In the second version of the GVAR (DdPS) the money supply variable was dropped due to lack of a consistent measure across all countries, and a long-term interest rate was added to allow for simple yield curve relationships. Indeed... City, June 24-27, 2007 and at the Bank of England Research Workshop on Dynamic Factor Models held at the Bank of England, 8-10 October 2007. We are grateful for comments by the discussants James Stock and Domenico Giannone as well as to Frank Diebold...

  17. The Preservation of Physical Fashion Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kosztowny, Alexander John

    2015-01-01

    schools and their libraries, which use trend forecastingin archives and libraries would be that the trend forecastsin a library or archive, not exclusively to trend forecasts.

  18. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    R&D translates into improved performance and reduced costs for energy technologies. Motivation Technological forecasts, which plot the anticipated performance and costs of...

  19. Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koottatep, Pakawkul

    2006-01-01

    Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

  20. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    that take place in complex terrain, this funding opportunity will improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  1. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  2. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  3. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to the electricity price forecast. This resource mix is used to forecast the fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power Plan. This forecast is an estimate of the future price of electricity

  4. 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Greenslade, Diana

    SHEET 6 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting and Warning Services The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is responsible for providing an effective flood forecasting and warning service in each Australian state

  5. Global Statistics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Crow, Ben D

    2006-01-01

    of Globalization: Statistics Weiss, L. (1997). "of Globalization: Statistics Milanovic, B. (1999). Truethe focus of global statistics, particularly in relation to

  6. Numerical Weather Forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L. [Westinghouse Savannah River Company, AIKEN, SC (United States)

    1998-11-01

    Weather forecasts at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are important for applications to emergency response. The fate of accidentally-released radiological materials and toxic chemicals can be determined by providing wind and turbulence input to atmospheric transport models. This operation has been routinely performed at SRS using the WIND System, a system of computer models and monitors which collect data from towers situated throughout the SRS. However, the information provided to these models is spatially homogeneous (in one or two dimensions) with an elementary forecasting capability. This paper discusses the use of an advanced three-dimensional prognostic numerical model to provide space and time-dependent meteorological data for use in the WIND System dispersion models. The extensive meteorological data collection at SRS serves as a ground truth for further model development as well as for use in other applications.

  7. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  8. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration wouldMass map shines lightGeospatial ToolkitSMARTS -BeingFuture forForecasting NREL researchers

  9. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX E LISTStar2-0057-EA Jump to:ofEnia SpAFlex Fuels Energy JumpVyncke Jump to:Forecast

  10. version 11apr11a Geopolitics of the Global Oil System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    O'Donnell, Tom

    ://menapetroleum.blogspot.com/ Short Description This course examines the political economy of global energy, especially oil, and its-group blogs: 1. China Oil Affairs http://chinaoilaffairs.blogspot.com/ 2. Rentismo & Dutch Disease http geopolitical consequences for the Middle East, Latin America, China, and U.S. policy. In Part 1, Resources, we

  11. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 On the computational studies of deterministic global

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grossmann, Ignacio E.

    optimization of head dependent short-term hydro scheduling Ricardo M. Lima, Marian G. Marcovecchio, Augusto Q. Novais, Ignacio E. Grossmann Abstract--This paper addresses the global optimization of the short term scheduling for hydroelectric power generation. A Mixed Integer Nonlinear Programming (MINLP) model

  12. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Parsons, Simon

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc in demand forecasting for new communication services. Acknowledgments: The writing of this paper commenced employers or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica- tions

  13. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  14. Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts VERONICA ensembles that generates calibrated probabilistic forecast products for weather quantities at indi- vidual perturbation (GOP) method, and extends BMA to generate calibrated probabilistic forecasts of whole weather

  15. 1360 IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3, August 1997 Application of Fuzzy Logic Technology for Spatial Load Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chow, Mo-Yuen

    are required to provide reliable power to customers. In the design stages, utilities need to plan ahead-effective and reliable distribution system. In the design stages, utilities need to plan ahead for anticipated future in their territory. Therefore, utilities are very concerned about distribution planning. They would like to use

  16. A Biological Global Positioning System: Considerations for Tracking Stem Cell Behaviors in the Whole Body

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Shengwen Calvin; Tachiki, Lisa May; Luo, Jane; Dethlefs, Brent A.; Chen, Zhongping; Loudon, William G.

    2010-01-01

    human airway using a microelectromechanical system endoscopethree- dimensional microelectromechanical endoscopic sweptof a rotational microelectromechanical system probe. Optics

  17. European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind Generation by a Dynamic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind. Abstract-Short-term wind power forecasting is recognized nowadays as a major requirement for a secure and economic integration of wind power in a power system. In the case of large-scale integration, end users

  18. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  19. INTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , discourse and semantic. They are based on a conceptual model underlying weather forecasts as well situations represented in the form of texts in NL, weather maps, data tables or combined information objectsINTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev I n s t i t u t e of Mathematics Acad

  20. Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hart, Sergiu

    Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart October 2015 SERGIU HART c 2015 ­ p. #12;Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart Center for the Study of Rationality Dept of Mathematics Dept of Economics The Hebrew University of Jerusalem hart@huji.ac.il http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/hart

  1. Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roberts, Stephen

    Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments Technical Report PARG 08-03 Seung of Oxford December 2008 #12;Seung Min Lee and Stephen J. Roberts Technical Report PARG 08-03 Multivariate missing observations and forecasting future values in incomplete multivariate time series data. We study

  2. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author, Guangzhou 510301, China9 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological10, China20 21 22 23 24 Submitted to Weather and Forecasting25 2014. 12. 2826 27 Corresponding author: Dr

  3. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Richard H.

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author Fort Collins, Colorado7 October 20128 (submitted to Weather and Forecasting)9 1 Corresponding author address: Rebecca D. Adams-Selin, HQ Air Force Weather Agency 16th Weather Squadron, 101 Nelson Dr., Offutt

  4. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  5. Numerical weather forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L. [Westinghouse Savannah River Site, Aiken, SC (United States)

    1998-12-31

    Weather forecasts at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are important for applications to emergency response. The fate of accidentally released radiological materials and toxic chemicals can be determined by providing wind and turbulence input to atmospheric transport models. This operation has been routinely performed at SRS using the WIND system, a system of computer models and monitors that collects data from towers situated throughout the SRS. However, the information provided to these models is spatially homogeneous (in one or two dimensions) with an elementary forecasting capability. This paper discusses the use of an advanced three-dimensional prognostic numerical model to provide space- and time-dependent meteorological data for use in the WIND system dispersion models. The extensive meteorological data collection at SRS serves as a ground truth for further model development as well as for use in other applications. A prognostic mesoscale model, the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS), is used to provide these forecasts. Use of RAMS allows for incorporation of mesoscale features such as the sea breeze, which has been shown to affect local weather conditions. This paper discusses the mesoscale model and its configuration for the operational simulation, as well as an application using a dispersion model at the SRS.

  6. Meteorology as Infrastructural Globalism

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Edwards, Paul N.

    the history of a global governance institution, the World Me- teorological Organization (WMO), from its (from the 1967 inauguration of the Intelsat system) and global environmental monitoring (from the UN Confer- ence on the Human Environment, 1972). Throughout, Hewson sees global governance institutions

  7. Existence of global strong solutions to a beam-fluid interaction system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grandmont, C

    2015-01-01

    We study an unsteady non linear fluid-structure interaction problem which is a simplified model to describe blood flow through viscoleastic arteries. We consider a Newtonian incompressible two-dimensional flow described by the Navier-Stokes equations set in an unknown domain depending on the displacement of a structure, which itself satisfies a linear viscoelastic beam equation. The fluid and the structure are fully coupled via interface conditions prescribing the continuity of the velocities at the fluid-structure interface and the action-reaction principle. We prove that strong solutions to this problem are global-in-time. We obtain in particular that contact between the viscoleastic wall and the bottom of the fluid cavity does not occur in finite time. To our knowledge, this is the first occurrence of a no-contact result, but also of existence of strong solutions globally in time, in the frame of interactions between a viscous fluid and a deformable structure.

  8. Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

    2008-11-15

    For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

  9. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria & Health Systems Strengthening: An Organizational and Policy Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weber, Stephanie Elise

    2011-01-01

    and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria:9534, pp. 537- Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria. (of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria. Available:

  10. Towards a Fine-Resolution Global Coupled Climate System for Prediction...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    58 GEOSCIENCES climate, numerical modeling, earth system model, ocean, sea-ice, mesoscale eddies climate, numerical modeling, earth system model, ocean, sea-ice, mesoscale...

  11. Canonical Duality-Triality Theory: Bridge Between Nonconvex Analysis/Mechanics and Global Optimization in Complex Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    David Y Gao; Ning Ruan; Vittorio Latorre

    2014-11-26

    Canonical duality-triality is a breakthrough methodological theory, which can be used not only for modeling complex systems within a unified framework, but also for solving a wide class of challenging problems from real-world applications. This paper presents a brief review on this theory, its philosophical origin, physics foundation, and mathematical statements in both finite and infinite dimensional spaces, with emphasizing on its role for bridging the gap between nonconvex analysis/mechanics and global optimization. Special attentions are paid on unified understanding the fundamental difficulties in large deformation mechanics, bifurcation/chaos in nonlinear science, and the NP-hard problems in global optimization, as well as the theorems, methods, and algorithms for solving these challenging problems. Misunderstandings and confusions on some basic concepts, such as objectivity, nonlinearity, Lagrangian, and generalized convexities are discussed and classified. Breakthrough from recent challenges and conceptual mistakes by M. Voisei, C. Zalinescu and his co-worker are addressed. Some open problems and future works in global optimization and nonconvex mechanics are proposed.

  12. 526 VOLUME 14W E A T H E R A N D F O R E C A S T I N G Improved Accuracy in Severe Storm Forecasting by the Severe Local Storms Unit

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    by the automation of largely clerical tasks, allowing the forecasters more time to focus on the forecast problem in Kansas City, numerous major changes took place in forecast products, computer systems, and personnel mi either side of a line from city A to city B). The watch process has played an important role over

  13. SWS 5182: Earth System Analysis Catalogue Description: Analysis of global-scale interdependences between climate, biogeochemical

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ma, Lena

    and Energy Budget Rahmstorf et al., 2006, Chapter 4 Set up Earth system model Lag in the climate system 6-atmosphere carbon balance Chapter 8 in Sarmiento and Gruber Add ocean carbon cycle to your Earth system model Friedlingstein et al., 2006 Quantify carbon cycle climate feedback in Earth system models 13 - 14 Th

  14. SWS4180: Earth System Analysis Catalogue Description: Analysis of global-scale interdependences between climate, biogeochemical

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ma, Lena

    Quantify carbon cycle climate feedback in Earth system models 13 - 14 The fate of anthropogenic greenhouse

  15. Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

    2011-03-29

    We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

  16. Global DC Power System Market Key Vendors | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIXsource History View New Pages RecentPlant <SilverChange Associates JumpGlobal DC

  17. Global DC Power System Market Trends, Analysis 2015-2019 | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIXsource History View New Pages RecentPlant <SilverChange Associates JumpGlobal

  18. Development of Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerant Solutions for Commercial Refrigeration Systems using a Life Cycle Climate Performance Design Tool

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abdelaziz, Omar; Fricke, Brian A; Vineyard, Edward Allan

    2012-01-01

    Commercial refrigeration systems are known to be prone to high leak rates and to consume large amounts of electricity. As such, direct emissions related to refrigerant leakage and indirect emissions resulting from primary energy consumption contribute greatly to their Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP). In this paper, an LCCP design tool is used to evaluate the performance of a typical commercial refrigeration system with alternative refrigerants and minor system modifications to provide lower Global Warming Potential (GWP) refrigerant solutions with improved LCCP compared to baseline systems. The LCCP design tool accounts for system performance, ambient temperature, and system load; system performance is evaluated using a validated vapor compression system simulation tool while ambient temperature and system load are devised from a widely used building energy modeling tool (EnergyPlus). The LCCP design tool also accounts for the change in hourly electricity emission rate to yield an accurate prediction of indirect emissions. The analysis shows that conventional commercial refrigeration system life cycle emissions are largely due to direct emissions associated with refrigerant leaks and that system efficiency plays a smaller role in the LCCP. However, as a transition occurs to low GWP refrigerants, the indirect emissions become more relevant. Low GWP refrigerants may not be suitable for drop-in replacements in conventional commercial refrigeration systems; however some mixtures may be introduced as transitional drop-in replacements. These transitional refrigerants have a significantly lower GWP than baseline refrigerants and as such, improved LCCP. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the tradeoffs between refrigerant GWP, efficiency and capacity.

  19. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  20. Global implications of Rapid: an international system facilitating inexpensive resource sharing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Leon, Lars

    2008-09-29

    This paper will briefly describe the Rapid system which facilitates interlending of articles between libraries, and obtaining articles from document suppliers, and open access journals. A basic description of how the system works along...

  1. Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

    will yield a biased forecast but will continue to have the least variance. On the other hand a forecast based on the sub-sample {yTi , yTi+1, . . . , yT }, where Ti > 1 is likely to have a lower bias but could be inefficient due to a higher variance... approach considered in Pesaran and Timmermann (2007) is to use different sub-windows to forecast and then average the outcomes, either by means of cross-validated weights or by simply using equal weights. To this end consider the sample {yTi , yTi+1...

  2. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  3. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  4. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number weather forecasts and do not take any possible correlation into ac- count. Since wind and wave forecasts

  5. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  6. Global existence and $L^{p}$ convergence rates of planar waves for three-dimensional bipolar Euler-Poisson systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jie Liao; Yeping Li

    2015-01-24

    In the paper, we consider a multi-dimensional bipolar hydrodynamic model from semiconductor devices and plasmas. This system takes the form of Euler-Poisson with electric field and frictional damping added to the momentum equations. We show the global existence and $L^{p}$ convergence rates of planar diffusion waves for multi-dimensional bipolar Euler-Poisson systems when the initial data are near the planar diffusive waves. A frequency decomposition and approximate Green function based on delicate energy method are used to get the optimal decay rates of the planar diffusion waves. To our knowledge, the $L^p(p\\in[2,+\\infty])$-convergence rate of planar waves improves the previous results about the $L^2$-convergence rates.

  7. Globalization Nationalized

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mazlish, Bruce

    Globalism and globalization have been seen as competitors to other allegiances, namely regionalism and nationalism. A look at recent efforts at reconceptualizing global history in China, Korea and the U.S., however, suggests ...

  8. Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischer, Luke D.

    2011-08-08

    .............................................................................................9 Task 1: Developing a database of solar weather data ...............................9 Task 2: Developing the ?dynamic analysis? process .............................. 10 Task 3: Developing a Java applet that presents real-time solar...-computing resources have been recently discovered. Software materials include the programming language ?Java?, the Graphical-User-Interface ?JCreator?, and Rapid Miner. We also make use of publicly available scientific databases that contain a vast plethora...

  9. An Evaluation of the Environmental Impact of Different Commercial Supermarket Refrigeration Systems Using Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beshr, Mohamed; Aute, Vikrant; Abdelaziz, Omar; Fricke, Brian A; Radermacher, Reinhard

    2014-01-01

    Commercial refrigeration systems consumed 1.21 Quads of primary energy in 2010 and are known to be a major source for refrigerant charge leakage into the environment. Thus, it is important to study the environmental impact of commercial supermarket refrigeration systems and improve their design to minimize any adverse impacts. The system s Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP) was presented as a comprehensive metric with the aim of calculating the equivalent mass of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere throughout its lifetime, from construction to operation and destruction. In this paper, an open source tool for the evaluation of the LCCP of different air-conditioning and refrigeration systems is presented and used to compare the environmental impact of a typical multiplex direct expansion (DX) supermarket refrigeration systems based on three different refrigerants as follows: two hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants (R-404A, and R-407F), and a low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerant (N-40). The comparison is performed in 8 US cities representing different climates. The hourly energy consumption of the refrigeration system, required for the calculation of the indirect emissions, is calculated using a widely used building energy modeling tool (EnergyPlus). A sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the impact of system charge and power plant emission factor on the LCCP results. Finally, we performed an uncertainty analysis to determine the uncertainty in total emissions for both R-404A and N-40 operated systems. We found that using low GWP refrigerants causes a considerable drop in the impact of uncertainty in the inputs related to direct emissions on the uncertainty of the total emissions of the system.

  10. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  11. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  12. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  13. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    /demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Manager Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY

  14. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P. Oglesby Executive

  15. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION

  16. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  17. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Gough Office Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  18. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  19. Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    forecast of 4) Calculate Hourly Load Allocation Factor s for each day for 2019 For use in RA analysis as a function ofthe load for electricity in the region as a function of cyclical, weather and economic variables

  20. Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilleland, Eric

    Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

  1. New product forecasting in volatile markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baldwin, Alexander (Alexander Lee)

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting demand for limited-life cycle products is essentially projecting an arc trend of demand growth and decline over a relatively short time horizon. When planning for a new limited-life product, many marketing and ...

  2. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  3. 13.2 A REPORT AND FEATURE-BASED VERIFICATION STUDY OF THE CAPS 2008 STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of computing power, innovative numerical systems, and assimilation of observations at high spatial and temporal system as a means by which model error and uncertainty can be quantified in the forecast. Employing13.2 A REPORT AND FEATURE-BASED VERIFICATION STUDY OF THE CAPS 2008 STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

  4. THE SECOND LAW OF THERMODYNAMICS AND THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM: A REVIEW OF THE MAXIMUM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lorenz, Ralph D.

    a schematic of energy transport processes in a planetary system composed of the Earth, the Sun, and outer to absorption of solar radiation in the climate system is found to be irrelevant to the maximized prop- erties conclusion about heat engines is that there is a certain limit for the conversion rate of the heat energy

  5. Computer Assisted 'Proof' of the Global Existence of Periodic Orbits in the Rössler System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A. E. Botha; W. Dednam

    2014-08-14

    The numerical optimized shooting method for finding periodic orbits in nonlinear dynamical systems was employed to determine the existence of periodic orbits in the well-known R\\"ossler system. By optimizing the period $T$ and the three system parameters, $a$, $b$ and $c$, simultaneously, it was found that, for any initial condition $(x_0,y_0,z_0) \\in \\Re^3$, there exists at least one set of optimized parameters corresponding to a periodic orbit passing through $ (x_0,y_0,z_0)$. After a discussion of this result it was concluded that its analytical proof may present an interesting new mathematical challenge.

  6. The EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme: A Proto-Type Global System?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ellerman, A. Denny

    2008-01-01

    The European Union's Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the world's first multinational cap-and-trade system for greenhouse gases. As an agreement between sovereign nations with diverse historical, institutional, and ...

  7. The EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme: A Prototype Global System?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ellerman, A. Denny

    The European Union's Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the world's first multinational cap-and-trade system for greenhouse gases. As an agreement between sovereign nations with diverse historical, institutional, and ...

  8. Reachability analysis and deterministic global optimization of differential-algebraic systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Scott, Joseph Kirk

    2012-01-01

    Systems of differential-algebraic equations (DAEs) are used to model an incredible variety of dynamic phenomena. In the chemical process industry in particular, the numerical simulation of detailed DAE models has become a ...

  9. Modeling the Global Water Resource System in an Integrated Assessment Modeling Framework: IGSM-WRS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Strzepek, Kenneth M.

    The availability of water resources affects energy, agricultural and environmental systems, which are linked together as well as to climate via the water cycle. As such, watersheds and river basins are directly impacted ...

  10. Intra-hour Direct Normal Irradiance solar forecasting using genetic programming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Queener, Benjamin Daniel

    2012-01-01

    guideline for Solar Power Forecasting Performance . . 46 viof forecasting techniques for solar power production with noand A. Pavlovski, “Solar power forecasting performance

  11. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of the WRF model solar irradiance forecasts in Andalusia (Beyer, H. , 2009.    Irradiance forecasting for the power dependent probabilistic irradiance  forecasts for coastal 

  12. Global Architecture of Planetary Systems (GAPS), a project for the whole Italian Community

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poretti, Ennio; Claudi, Riccardo; Cosentino, Rosario; Covino, Elvira; Desidera, Silvano; Gratton, Raffaele; Lanza, Antonino F; Maggio, Antonio; Micela, Giuseppina; Molinari, Emilio; Pagano, Isabella; Piotto, Giampaolo; Smareglia, Riccardo; Sozzetti, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    The GAPS project is running since 2012 with the goal to optimize the science return of the HARPS-N instrument mounted at Telescopio Nazionale Galileo. A large number of astronomers is working together to allow the Italian community to gain an international position adequate to the HARPS-N capabilities in the exoplanetary researches. Relevant scientific results are being obtained on both the main guidelines of the collaboration, i.e., the discovery surveys and the characterization studies. The planetary system discovered around the southern component of the binary XO-2 and its characterization together with that of the system orbiting the northern component are a good example of the completeness of the topics matched by the GAPS project. The dynamics of some planetary systems are investigated by studying the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect, while host stars are characterized by means of asteroseismology and star-planet interaction.

  13. Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    Goal: Design nodal price and grid congestion forecasting tools for market operators and market Traders To facilitate scenario-conditioned planning Price forecasting for Market Participants (MPs) To manage short for portfolio management by power market participants Conclusion #12;Project OverviewProject Overview Project

  14. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  15. Who Captures Value in a Global Innovation System? The case of Apple's iPod

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Linden, Greg; Kraemer, Kenneth L; Dedrick, Jason

    2007-01-01

    Portelligent Inc. (2006). Apple iPod Video, 30GB MultimediaSystem? The case of Apple's iPod Greg Linden, Kenneth L.to look at one member of Apple’s iPod family, part of a

  16. Reachability Analysis and Deterministic Global Optimization of Differential-Algebraic Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Chemical Engineering Abstract Systems of differential by Joseph Kirk Scott B.S. Chemical Engineering, Wayne State University (2006) M.S. Chemical Engineering Practice, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (2008) Submitted to the Department of Chemical Engineering

  17. Global Optimization of Compositional Systems Fadi Zaraket John Pape Adnan Aziz Magarida Jacome Sarfraz Khurshid

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Khurshid, Sarfraz

    . We implemented COSE in the Metropolis platform and achieved significant optimizations using processing, and automotive electronics [2]. Embedded systems are heterogeneous by nature. For ex- ample) with embedded software. A diversity of platforms try to employ and integrate different models of computation (Mo

  18. Development of an Implementation Plan for an Electronic Document Management System in a Global Engineering Firm

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kisuve, Robert N.

    2011-05-20

    project teams in project execution. The goal of this field project is to establish such a process for deploying an EDM system, ProjectWise, in Organization X’s Division Y Asia-Pacific offices. This deployment process will be established by developing...

  19. Self-adjoint, globally defined Hamiltonian operators for systems with boundaries

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nuno Costa Dias; Andrea Posilicano; Joao Nuno Prata

    2012-04-12

    For a general self-adjoint Hamiltonian operator $H_0$ on the Hilbert space $L^2(\\RE^d)$, we determine the set of all self-adjoint Hamiltonians $H$ on $L^2(\\RE^d)$ that dynamically confine the system to an open set $\\Omega \\subset \\RE^d$ while reproducing the action of $ H_0$ on an appropriate operator domain. In the case $H_0=-\\Delta +V$ we construct these Hamiltonians explicitly showing that they can be written in the form $H=H_0+ B$, where $B$ is a singular boundary potential and $H$ is self-adjoint on its maximal domain. An application to the deformation quantization of one-dimensional systems with boundaries is also presented.

  20. Global models of planetary system formation in radiatively-inefficient protoplanetary discs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hellary, Phil

    2011-01-01

    (Abridged) We present the results of N-body simulations of planetary systems formation in radiatively-inefficient disc models, where positive corotation torques may counter the rapid inward migration of low mass planets driven by Lindblad torques. The aim of this work is to examine the nature of planetary systems that arise from oligarchic growth in such discs. We adapt the commonly-used Mercury-6 symplectic integrator by including simple prescriptions for planetary migration (types I and II), planetary atmospheres that enhance the probability of planetesimal accretion by protoplanets, gas accretion onto forming planetary cores, and gas disc dispersal. We perform a suite of simulations for a variety of disc models with power-law surface density and tempera- ture profiles, with a focus on models in which unsaturated corotation torques can drive outward migration of protoplanets. In some models we account for the quenching of corotation torques that arises when planetary orbits become eccentric. Approximately h...

  1. Incorporation of 3D Shortwave Radiative Effects within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    O'Hirok, W.; Ricchiazzi, P.; Gautier, C.

    2005-03-18

    A principal goal of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program is to understand the 3D cloud-radiation problem from scales ranging from the local to the size of global climate model (GCM) grid squares. For climate models using typical cloud overlap schemes, 3D radiative effects are minimal for all but the most complicated cloud fields. However, with the introduction of ''superparameterization'' methods, where sub-grid cloud processes are accounted for by embedding high resolution 2D cloud system resolving models within a GCM grid cell, the impact of 3D radiative effects on the local scale becomes increasingly relevant (Randall et al. 2003). In a recent study, we examined this issue by comparing the heating rates produced from a 3D and 1D shortwave radiative transfer model for a variety of radar derived cloud fields (O'Hirok and Gautier 2005). As demonstrated in Figure 1, the heating rate differences for a large convective field can be significant where 3D effects produce areas o f intense local heating. This finding, however, does not address the more important question of whether 3D radiative effects can alter the dynamics and structure of a cloud field. To investigate that issue we have incorporated a 3D radiative transfer algorithm into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Here, we present very preliminary findings of a comparison between cloud fields generated from a high resolution non-hydrostatic mesoscale numerical weather model using 1D and 3D radiative transfer codes.

  2. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  3. The Development of an Accuracy of a Doppler Global System for One Dimensional Velocity Measurement 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Karabacak, Mustafa

    2014-05-23

    . Pressure matched sonic jet and over expanded supersonic jet applied for these experiments, and each jet was seeded with humidified supply air to generate fog. Smith realized that the biggest portion of errors come from laser speckle. A pulsed laser... Rayleigh limit and the ratio of red and green scattering signals depends on particle size, so seed particle size was increased [17]. Willert combined PIV and DGV systems to measure velocity of a single sector combustor rig at pressures of 2 and 10 bars...

  4. Validation of Danish wind time series from a new global renewable energy atlas for energy system analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Andresen, Gorm Bruun; Greiner, Martin

    2014-01-01

    We present a new global high-resolution renewable energy atlas (REatlas) that can be used to calculate customised hourly time series of wind and solar PV power generation. In this paper, the atlas is applied to produce 32-year-long hourly model wind power time series for Denmark for each historical and future year between 1980 and 2035. These are calibrated and validated against real production data from the period 2000 to 2010. The high number of years allows us to discuss how the characteristics of Danish wind power generation varies between individual weather years. As an example, the annual energy production is found to vary by $\\pm10\\%$ from the average. Furthermore, we show how the production pattern change as small onshore turbines are gradually replaced by large onshore and offshore turbines. In most energy system analysis tools, fixed hourly time series of wind power generation are used to model future power systems with high penetrations of wind energy. Here, we compare the wind power time series fo...

  5. Load Pocket Forecasting Software E. A. Feinberg, D. Genethliou, J.T. Hajagos, B.G. Irrgang, and R. J. Rossin

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    by electric utilities to estimate and forecast the load growth in different service areas. The software builds. The software can be used for area planning purposes. The software contains user's tools to design new load pockets and to modify the existing ones. Index Terms--Load forecasting, power system planning I

  6. A Globally Distributed System for Job, Data, and Information Handling for High Energy Physics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Garzoglio, Gabriele

    2005-12-01

    The computing infrastructures of the modern high energy physics experiments need to address an unprecedented set of requirements. The collaborations consist of hundreds of members from dozens of institutions around the world and the computing power necessary to analyze the data produced surpasses already the capabilities of any single computing center. A software infrastructure capable of seamlessly integrating dozens of computing centers around the world, enabling computing for a large and dynamical group of users, is of fundamental importance for the production of scientific results. Such a computing infrastructure is called a computational grid. The SAM-Grid offers a solution to these problems for CDF and DZero, two of the largest high energy physics experiments in the world, running at Fermilab. The SAM-Grid integrates standard grid middleware, such as Condor-G and the Globus Toolkit, with software developed at Fermilab, organizing the system in three major components: data handling, job handling, and information management. This dissertation presents the challenges and the solutions provided in such a computing infrastructure.

  7. Global Phase Diagrams of Mixed Surfactant-Polymer Systems at Interfaces

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    X. Chatellier; D. Andelman

    1998-03-21

    Insoluble surfactant monolayers at the air/water interface undergo a phase transition from a high-temperature homogeneous state to a low-temperature demixed state, where dilute and dense phases coexist. Alternatively, the transition from a dilute phase to a dense one may be induced by compressing the monolayer at constant temperature. We consider the case where the insoluble surfactant monolayer interacts with a semi-dilute polymer solution solubilized in the water subphase. The phase diagrams of the mixed surfactant/polymer system are investigated within the framework of mean field theory. The polymer enhances the fluctuations of the monolayer and induces an upward shift of the critical temperature. The critical concentration is increased if the monomers are more attracted (or at least less repelled) by the surfactant molecules than by the bare water/air interface. In the case where the monomers are repelled by the bare interface but attracted by the surfactant molecules (or vice versa), the phase diagram may have a triple point. The location of the polymer special transition line appears to have a big effect on the phase diagram of the surfactant monolayer.

  8. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  9. New directions for forecasting air travel passenger demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garvett, Donald Stephen

    1974-01-01

    While few will disagree that sound forecasts are an essential prerequisite to rational transportation planning and analysis, the making of these forecasts has become a complex problem with the broadening of the scope and ...

  10. Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zeng, Yong - Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Missouri

    1 Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic true value. However, such a forecast- ing function is not directly applicable for applications potentially result in insufficient allocation of bandwidth leading to short term data loss. To facilitate

  11. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  12. Market perceptions of efficiency and news in analyst forecast errors 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chevis, Gia Marie

    2004-11-15

    Financial analysts are considered inefficient when they do not fully incorporate relevant information into their forecasts. In this dissertation, I investigate differences in the observable efficiency of analysts' earnings forecasts between firms...

  13. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting September 12, 2014 - 2:06pm Addthis...

  14. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-01-01

    Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

  15. OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    .................................................................................................................................... 323 II. SCIENCE OF EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING AND PREDICTION 325 A. Definitions and Concepts....................................................................................................................................... 325 B. Research on Earthquake PredictabilityOPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization Report

  16. Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies: Building a Global Infrastructure for Climate Change Research

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Williams, Dean N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ahrens, J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Ananthakrishnan, R. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Bell, G. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Bharathi, S. [Univ. of Southern California, Marina del Ray, CA (United States). Information Science Institute; Brown, D. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Chen, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Chervenak, A. L. [Univ. of Southern California, Marina del Ray, CA (United States). Information Science Institute; Cinquini, L. [National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena, CA (United States); Drach, R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foster, I. T. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Fox, P. [Rensselaer Polytechnic Inst., Troy, NY (United States); Hankin, S. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (PMEL), Seattle, WA (United States); Harper, D. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Hook, N. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Jones, P. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Middleton, D. E. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Miller, R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Nienhouse, E. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Schweitzer, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (PMEL), Seattle, WA (United States); Schuler, R. [Univ. of Southern California, Marina del Ray, CA (United States). Information Science Institute; Shipman, G. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Shoshani, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Siebenlist, F. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sim, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Strand, W. G. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Wang, F. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Wilcox, H. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Wilhelmi, N. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2010-08-16

    Established within DOE’s Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC-) 2 program, with support from ASCR and BER, the Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) is a consortium of seven laboratories (Argonne National Laboratory [ANL], Los Alamos National Laboratory [LANL], Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [LBNL], Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL], National Center for Atmospheric Research [NCAR], Oak Ridge National Laboratory [ORNL], and Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [PMEL]), and two institutes (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute [RPI] and the University of Southern California, Information Sciences Institute [USC/ISI]). The consortium’s mission is to provide climate researchers worldwide with a science gateway to access data, information, models, analysis tools, and computational capabilities required to evaluate extreme-scale data sets. Its stated goals are to (1) make data more useful to climate researchers by developing collaborative technology that enhances data usability; (2) meet the specific needs that national and international climate projects have for distributed databases, data access, and data movement; (3) provide a universal and secure web-based data access portal for broad-based multi-model data collections; and (4) provide a wide range of climate data-analysis tools and diagnostic methods to international climate centers and U.S. government agencies. To this end, the ESG-CET is working to integrate all highly publicized climate data sets—from climate simulations to observations—using distributed storage management, remote high-performance units, high-bandwidth wide-area networks, and user desktop platforms in a collaborative problem-solving environment.

  17. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  18. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  19. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  20. Managerial Career Concerns and Earnings Forecasts SARAH SHAIKH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tipple, Brett

    's aversion to risk, I find that a CEO is less likely to issue an earnings forecast in periods of stricter non is more pronounced for a CEO who has greater concern for his reputation, faces more risk in forecasting the provision of earnings forecasts. Literature has long recognized that the labor market provides distinct

  1. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McBurney, Peter

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc to redress this situation by presenting a discussion of the issues involved in demand forecasting for new or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica­ tions Services. 1 #12

  2. Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hsieh, William

    Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures Aiming Wu, William W Tang Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA Neural Networks (in press) December 11, 2005 title: Forecast of sea surface temperature 1 #12;Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea

  3. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co Paulina Jaramillo Doctor Paul Fischbeck 2012 #12;ii #12;iii Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information

  4. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power. This paper presents two methods focusing on forecasting large and sharp variations in power output of a wind

  5. Choosing Words in Computer-Generated Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    to communicate numeric weather data. A corpus-based analysis of how humans write forecasts showed that there wereTime- Mousam weather-forecast generator to use consistent data-to-word rules, which avoided words which were weather forecast texts from numerical weather pre- diction data (SumTime-Mousam in fact is used

  6. Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN 2011, in final form 26 May 2012) ABSTRACT Probabilistic forecasts of wind vectors are becoming critical with univariate quantities, statistical approaches to wind vector forecasting must be based on bivariate

  7. Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Wind power forecast data observed wind power input (2004 ­ 2006

  8. Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc in the context of wind power, where under- forecasting and overforecasting carry different financial penal- ties, calibrated and sharp probabilistic forecasts can help to make wind power a more financially competitive alter

  9. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines@mines.edu ABSTRACT Forecasting the occupancy of buildings can lead to signif- icant improvement of smart heating throughout a building, we perform data mining to forecast occupancy a short time (i.e., up to 60 minutes

  10. Weather Forecasting -Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting - Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, "weather forecasts" are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the effec- tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  11. Weather Forecasting Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting ­ Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, ``weather forecasts'' are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the e#ec­ tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  12. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  13. Preprints, 15th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doswell III, Charles A.

    ) models have substantially improved forecast skill. Recent and planned changes along these lines (e to delivering two kinds of weather products. The first is a day-to-day forecast of weather elements, e by the private sector. Improvements in automated techniques for the forecasting of basic weather elements

  14. Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robock, Alan

    Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts over the United and vegetation on 30 h convective precipitation forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting model over, the complete removal of vegetation produced substantially less precipitation, while conversion to forest led

  15. The effects of potential changes in United States beef production on global grazing systems and greenhouse gas emissions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhou, Yaoqi

    and greenhouse gas emissions Jerome Dumortier1 , Dermot J Hayes2 , Miguel Carriquiry2 , Fengxia Dong3 , Xiaodong in the U.S. causes a net increase in GHG emissions on a global scale. We couple a global agricultural production in the United States. The effects on emissions from agricultural production (i.e., methane

  16. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    of Solar 2011, American Solar Energy Society, Raleigh, NC.Description and validation. Solar Energy, 73 (5), 307-317.forecast database. Solar Energy, Perez, R. , S. Kivalov, J.

  17. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  18. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    and technological advancement in energy-intensive applications are causing fast electric energy consumption growth and consumption of electricity [8], as long as there is no significant correlation between intermittent energyArticle Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses Linas Gelazanskas * and Kelum A

  19. GENETIC ALGORITHM FORECASTING FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS PRODUCTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Havlicek, Joebob

    available economic indicators such as Disposable Personal Income and New Housing Starts as independent exhibiting maximal fitness achieved RMS forecast errors below the the average two-week sales figure. 1 (Holland, 1975), (Packard, 1990), (Koza, 1992), (Bäck, et al., 1997), (Mitchell, 1998). For example, Meyer

  20. GOES Aviation Products Aviation Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuligowski, Bob

    GOES Aviation Products · The GOES aviation forecast products are based on energy measured in different characteristics #12;GOES Aviation Products Quiz · What is a geostationary satellite? · What generates energy received by the satellite in the visible band? · What generates energy received by the satellite

  1. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    summarisation. We found three alternative ways in which we could model data summarisation. One approach is based turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is summarised as weather forecast texts. In the domain of gas turbines, sensor data from

  2. "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS SEATTLE/TACOMA AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ASSESSMENT OF THE "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS FOR SEATTLE/TACOMA AND REGIONAL AIRPORTS TOGETHER 1. Introduction 5 2. Airport Planning Process 7 Traditional Master Planning Application to Seattle/Tacoma. Uncertainty about Capacity 27 A Fuzzy Concept Assessment Factors Application to Seattle/Tacoma 7. Assessment

  3. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  4. Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting by Nina Marie Caraway B of Civil Engineering 2012 #12;This thesis entitled: Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow mentioned discipline. #12;iii Caraway, Nina Marie (M.S., Civil Engineering) Stochastic Weather Generator

  5. Development of a next-generation regional weather research and forecast model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Michalakes, J.; Chen, S.; Dudhia, J.; Hart, L.; Klemp, J.; Middlecoff, J.; Skamarock, W.

    2001-02-05

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) project is a multi-institutional effort to develop an advanced mesoscale forecast and data assimilation system that is accurate, efficient, and scalable across a range of scales and over a host of computer platforms. The first release, WRF 1.0, was November 30, 2000, with operational deployment targeted for the 2004-05 time frame. This paper provides an overview of the project and current status of the WRF development effort in the areas of numerics and physics, software and data architecture, and single-source parallelism and performance portability.

  6. Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    @compute.dtu.dk www.compute.dtu.dk M.Sc.-2013-87 #12;Summary (English) The Danish power production coming from energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present Thesis

  7. A 110-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe Floods of 200307*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Peter J.

    A 1­10-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers as they flow into Bangladesh; it has been operational since 2003. The Bangladesh points of the Ganges and Brahmaputra into Bangladesh. Forecasts with 1­10-day horizons are presented

  8. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  9. Bidding wind energy exploiting wind speed forecasts Antonio Giannitrapani, Simone Paoletti,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garulli, Andrea

    -ahead generation profile for a wind power producer by exploiting wind speed forecasts provided by a meteorological service. In the con- sidered framework, the wind power producer is called to take part integration in the grid is causing serious problems to transmission and distribution system operators [2]. One

  10. SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    for this systems. Depending on the application, prediction of solar irradiance is beneficial on different timeSHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS Annette Solar World Congress. This portion of the paper is the abstract. The abstract should not exceed 250

  11. European Wind Energy Conference -Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    European Wind Energy Conference - Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power-term forecasting of wind energy produc- tion up to 2-3 days ahead is recognized as a major contribution the improvement of predic- tion systems performance is recognised as one of the priorities in wind energy research

  12. Evalua&ng the usefulness of spa&al forecast verifica&on methods for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilleland, Eric

    Evalua&ng the usefulness of spa&al forecast verifica&on methods for developing op&mal mix of observa&onal systems and NWP for real-&me nowcas&ng and forecas&ng&al end users Developing a Quan.ta.ve Precipita.on Es.ma.on, Nowcas.ng and Streamflow

  13. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanistic–empirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  14. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cañizares, Claudio A.

    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price Forecasting Errors to forecast electricity market prices and improve forecast accuracy. However, no studies have been reported, the application of electricity market price forecasts to short-term operation scheduling of two typical

  15. Global biofuel drive raises risk of eviction for African farmers

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    alternatives to oil, global biofuel production trebled between 2003 and 2007 and is forecast to double again to the research, said that the allocation of land for biofuel production by government projects or wealthy have forced millions into poverty. Dr Molony said: "The threat that increased biofuel production poses

  16. Global Potential of Energy Efficiency Standards and Labeling Programs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McNeil, Michael A

    2008-01-01

    together the forecasts of energy demand with unit savingsDemand Forecast . 73 Potential EnergyDemand Forecast A forecast of delivered energy demand is an

  17. Combinatorial Evolution and Forecasting of Communication Protocol ZigBee

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levin, Mark Sh; Kistler, Rolf; Klapproth, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    The article addresses combinatorial evolution and forecasting of communication protocol for wireless sensor networks (ZigBee). Morphological tree structure (a version of and-or tree) is used as a hierarchical model for the protocol. Three generations of ZigBee protocol are examined. A set of protocol change operations is generated and described. The change operations are used as items for forecasting based on combinatorial problems (e.g., clustering, knapsack problem, multiple choice knapsack problem). Two kinds of preliminary forecasts for the examined communication protocol are considered: (i) direct expert (expert judgment) based forecast, (ii) computation of the forecast(s) (usage of multicriteria decision making and combinatorial optimization problems). Finally, aggregation of the obtained preliminary forecasts is considered (two aggregation strategies are used).

  18. Global sea-salt modeling: Results and validation against multicampaign shipboard measurements

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Global sea-salt modeling: Results and validation against multicampaign shipboard measurements of sea-salt concentrations from five different campaigns are used to validate the sea-salt). The validity of the sea-salt parameterizations is tested by employing a global forecasting model and transport

  19. An Earthquake Prediction System Using The Time Series Analyses of Earthquake Property And Crust Motion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Takeda, Fumihide [Takeda Engineering Consultant Inc., 2-14-23 Ujina Miyuki, Hiroshima, 734-0015 (Japan); Takeo, Makoto [Department of Physics, Portland State University, P.O. Box 751, Portland, OR, 97207-0751 (United States)

    2004-12-09

    We have developed a short-term deterministic earthquake (EQ) forecasting system similar to those used for Typhoons and Hurricanes, which has been under a test operation at website http://www.tec21.jp/ since June of 2003. We use the focus and crust displacement data recently opened to the public by Japanese seismograph and global positioning system (GPS) networks, respectively. Our system divides the forecasting area into the five regional areas of Japan, each of which is about 5 deg. by 5 deg. We have found that it can forecast the focus, date of occurrence and magnitude (M) of an impending EQ (whose M is larger than about 6), all within narrow limits. We have two examples to describe the system. One is the 2003/09/26 EQ of M 8 in the Hokkaido area, which is of hindsight. Another is a successful rollout of the most recent forecast on the 2004/05/30 EQ of M 6.7 off coast of the southern Kanto (Tokyo) area.

  20. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  1. Two techniques for forecasting clear air turbulence 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arbeiter, Randolph George

    1977-01-01

    result in only mild annoyance or discomfort (air sickness) to crew and passengers. As it becomes moderate, difficulty may be experienced in moving about inside the airplane and the crew may momentarily lose control. Severe CAT can result in injury... successfully used by the Air Force Clobal Heather Central (Barnett, 1970) for oper" tional forecasting on a day-to-day basis. Furthermore, its usefulness 1' or supersonic aircraft in the stratosphere v;as successfully demonstrated by Scoggins et H. (1975...

  2. Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

    2007-01-09

    An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

  3. Using Wikipedia to forecast disease

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking WithTelecentric viewing system for light collectionEnergy

  4. Climate Theme Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Climate Theme Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array: Observing, Understanding Observing System for Climate #12;Performance 4 Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array: A coordinated multi-national effort to develop and sustain moored buoy observing systems for climate research

  5. LANL JOWOG 31 2012 Forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vidlak, Anton J. II [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-08

    Joint Working Group (JOWOG) 31, Nuclear Weapons Engineering, has a particularly broad scope of activities within its charter which emphasizes systems engineering. JOWOG 31 brings together experts from AWE and the national laboratories to address engineering issues associated with warhead design and certification. Some of the key areas of interaction, as addressed by the HOCWOGs are: (1) Engineering Analysis, (2) Hydrodynamic Testing, (3) Environmental Testing, and (4) Model Based Integrated Toolkit (MBIT). Gas Transfer Systems and Condition Monitoring interaction has been moved back to JOWOG 31. The regularly scheduled JOWOG 31 activities are the General Sessions, Executive Sessions, Focused Exchanges and HOCWOGs. General Sessions are scheduled every 12-18 months and are supported by the four design laboratories (AWE, LANL, LLNL, and SNL). Beneficial in educating the next generation of weapons engineers and establishing contacts between AWE and the US laboratory personnel. General Sessions are based on a blend of presentations and workshops centered on various themed subjects directly related to Stockpile Stewardship. HOCWOG meetings are more narrowly focused than the General Sessions. They feature presentations by experts in the field with a greater emphasis on round table discussions. Typically about 20 people attend. Focused exchanges are generally the result of interactions within JOWOG general sessions or HOCWOG meetings. They generally span a very specific topic of current interest within the US and UK.

  6. Global interrupt and barrier networks

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Blumrich, Matthias A. (Ridgefield, CT); Chen, Dong (Croton-On-Hudson, NY); Coteus, Paul W. (Yorktown Heights, NY); Gara, Alan G. (Mount Kisco, NY); Giampapa, Mark E (Irvington, NY); Heidelberger, Philip (Cortlandt Manor, NY); Kopcsay, Gerard V. (Yorktown Heights, NY); Steinmacher-Burow, Burkhard D. (Mount Kisco, NY); Takken, Todd E. (Mount Kisco, NY)

    2008-10-28

    A system and method for generating global asynchronous signals in a computing structure. Particularly, a global interrupt and barrier network is implemented that implements logic for generating global interrupt and barrier signals for controlling global asynchronous operations performed by processing elements at selected processing nodes of a computing structure in accordance with a processing algorithm; and includes the physical interconnecting of the processing nodes for communicating the global interrupt and barrier signals to the elements via low-latency paths. The global asynchronous signals respectively initiate interrupt and barrier operations at the processing nodes at times selected for optimizing performance of the processing algorithms. In one embodiment, the global interrupt and barrier network is implemented in a scalable, massively parallel supercomputing device structure comprising a plurality of processing nodes interconnected by multiple independent networks, with each node including one or more processing elements for performing computation or communication activity as required when performing parallel algorithm operations. One multiple independent network includes a global tree network for enabling high-speed global tree communications among global tree network nodes or sub-trees thereof. The global interrupt and barrier network may operate in parallel with the global tree network for providing global asynchronous sideband signals.

  7. Global energy and global precipitation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Global energy and global precipitation or Why doesn't precipitation increase as Clausias expect precipitation to increase at the same rate. · Rest of this brief talk is to show you why Heat Flux (S) 20 W/m2 Atmospheric heating from precipitation LP Atmosphere has small heat capacity. So

  8. The Commission Forecast 1992 Report: Important Resource Planning Issues 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adib, P.

    1992-01-01

    FORECAST 1992 REPORT: IMPORTANT RESOURCE PLANNING ISSUES PARVIZ ADIB MANAGER, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SECTION ELECTRIC DIVISION PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS ABSTRACT There is a general agreement among experts in the electric utility industry... there are many important issues in the preparation of a utility's electric resource plan, the Commission staff will address a few important ones in the next Commission Forecast Report (Forecast '92). In particular, the Commission staff will insure...

  9. A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Schwarber, Adria; Link, Robert P.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2015-04-01

    Simple climate models play an integral role in the policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector v1.0, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global-scale earth system processes. Hector has a three-part main carbon cycle: a one-pool atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model's terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production and respiration fluxes, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector actively solves the inorganicmore »carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air–sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO2], radiative forcing, and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with equivalent rates of change of key variables over time compared to current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Hector's flexibility, open-source nature, and modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.« less

  10. A simple object-oriented and open source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system–Hector v1.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Schwarber, Adria; Link, Robert P.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Simple climate models play an integral role in policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global scale earth system processes. Hector has three main carbon pools: an atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model’s terrestrial carbon cycle includes respiration and primary production, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector’s actively solves the inorganic carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air-sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO2] and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways with high correlations (R >0.7) with current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5. Hector is freely available under an open source license, and its modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.

  11. Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ben C Allanach; Kyle Cranmer; Christopher G Lester; Arne M Weber

    2007-07-05

    Previous LHC forecasts for the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), based on current astrophysical and laboratory measurements, have used priors that are flat in the parameter tan beta, while being constrained to postdict the central experimental value of MZ. We construct a different, new and more natural prior with a measure in mu and B (the more fundamental MSSM parameters from which tan beta and MZ are actually derived). We find that as a consequence this choice leads to a well defined fine-tuning measure in the parameter space. We investigate the effect of such on global CMSSM fits to indirect constraints, providing posterior probability distributions for Large Hadron Collider (LHC) sparticle production cross sections. The change in priors has a significant effect, strongly suppressing the pseudoscalar Higgs boson dark matter annihilation region, and diminishing the probable values of sparticle masses. We also show how to interpret fit information from a Markov Chain Monte Carlo in a frequentist fashion; namely by using the profile likelihood. Bayesian and frequentist interpretations of CMSSM fits are compared and contrasted.

  12. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01

    function. The forecasts of oil, coal and gas prices as wellforecasts for natural gas consumption, electricity sales, coal and electricity prices,

  13. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  14. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  15. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping (Presentation...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the shift from ramping. * the benefits - better use of forecast values (load or net load) - reduce the amount of variability that the regulation reserve must accommodate...

  16. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  17. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  18. Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures | U.S...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures Nuclear Physics (NP) NP Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of NP Funding Opportunities Nuclear...

  19. The Global Grid

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chatzivasileiadis, Spyros; Andersson, Göran

    2012-01-01

    This paper puts forward the vision that a natural future stage of the electricity network could be a grid spanning the whole planet and connecting most of the large power plants in the world: this is the "Global Grid". The main driving force behind the Global Grid will be the harvesting of remote renewable sources, and its key infrastructure element will be the high capacity long transmission lines. Wind farms and solar power plants will supply load centers with green power over long distances. This paper focusses on the introduction of the concept, showing that a globally interconnected network can be technologically feasible and economically competitive. We further highlight the multiple opportunities emerging from a global electricity network such as smoothing the renewable energy supply and electricity demand, reducing the need for bulk storage, and reducing the volatility of the energy prices. We also discuss possible investment mechanisms and operating schemes. Among others, we envision in such a system...

  20. Structural Design Feasibility Study for the Global Climate Experiment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lewin,K.F.; Nagy, J.

    2008-12-01

    Neon, Inc. is proposing to establish a Global Change Experiment (GCE) Facility to increase our understanding of how ecological systems differ in their vulnerability to changes in climate and other relevant global change drivers, as well as provide the mechanistic basis for forecasting ecological change in the future. The experimental design was initially envisioned to consist of two complementary components; (A) a multi-factor experiment manipulating CO{sub 2}, temperature and water availability and (B) a water balance experiment. As the design analysis and cost estimates progressed, it became clear that (1) the technical difficulties of obtaining tight temperature control and maintaining elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels within an enclosure were greater than had been expected and (2) the envisioned study would not fit into the expected budget envelope if this was done in a partially or completely enclosed structure. After discussions between NEON management, the GCE science team, and Keith Lewin, NEON, Inc. requested Keith Lewin to expand the scope of this design study to include open-field exposure systems. In order to develop the GCE design to the point where it can be presented within a proposal for funding, a feasibility study of climate manipulation structures must be conducted to determine design approaches and rough cost estimates, and to identify advantages and disadvantages of these approaches including the associated experimental artifacts. NEON, Inc requested this design study in order to develop concepts for the climate manipulation structures to support the NEON Global Climate Experiment. This study summarizes the design concepts considered for constructing and operating the GCE Facility and their associated construction, maintenance and operations costs. Comparisons and comments about experimental artifacts, construction challenges and operational uncertainties are provided to assist in selecting the final facility design. The overall goal of this report is to provide a cost and technological basis for selection of the appropriate GCE Facility design.

  1. Atmospheric test models and numerical experiments for the simulation of the global distribution of weather data transponders

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grossman, A; Molenkamp, C R

    1999-08-25

    A proposal has been made to establish a high density global network of atmospheric micro transponders to record time, temperature, and wind data with time resolution of {le} 1 minute, temperature accuracy of {+-} 1 K, spatial resolution no poorer than {approx}3km horizontally and {approx}0.1km vertically, and 2-D speed accuracy of {le} 1m/s. This data will be used in conjunction with advanced numerical weather prediction models to provide increases in the reliability of long range weather forecasts. Major advances in data collection technology will be required to provide the proposed high-resolution data collection network. Systems studies must be undertaken to determine insertion requirements, spacing, and evolution of the transponder ensemble, which will be used to collect the data. Numerical models which provide realistic global weather pattern simulations must be utilized in order to perform these studies. A global circulation model with a 3{sup o} horizontal resolution has been used for initial simulations of the generation and evolution of transponder distributions. These studies indicate that reasonable global coverage of transponders can be achieved by a launch scenario consisting of the sequential launch of transponders at specified heights from a globally distributed set of launch sites.

  2. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural GasEIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

  3. Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook Retrieving direct and diffuse radiation with the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 1/ 14 Retrieving. 17, 2015 #12;Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 2/ 14 Motivation Sky Imager based shortest-term solar irradiance forecasts for local solar energy applications

  4. ECMWF analyses and forecasts of 500 mb synoptic-scale activity during wintertime blocking 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Matson, David Michael

    1993-01-01

    An observational study of 500 mb atmospheric blocking is conducted based on an European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) wintertime analysis and forecast dataset during dynamic extended range forecasting ...

  5. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  6. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  7. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  8. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely onceComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  9. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  10. HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jamieson, Bruce

    HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson and decision makers strongly rely on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, for example on the forecasted on forecasted precipitation. KEYWORDS: Numerical weather prediction models, validation, precipitation 1

  11. Global warming, global research, and global governing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Preining, O.

    1997-12-31

    The anticipated dangers of Global Warming can be mitigated by reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, especially CO{sub 2}. To reach acceptable, constant levels within the next couple of centuries it might be necessary to accept stabilization levels higher than present ones, The annual CO{sub 2} emissions must be reduced far below today`s values. This is a very important result of the models discussed in the 1995 IPCC report. However, any even very modest scenario for the future must take into account a substantial increase in the world population which might double during the 21st century, There is a considerable emission reduction potential of the industrialized world due to efficiency increase, However, the demand for energy services by the growing world population will, inspite of the availability of alternative energy resources, possibly lead to a net increase in fossil fuel consumption. If the climate models are right, and the science community believes they are, we will experience a global warming of the order of a couple of degrees over the next century; we have to live with it. To be prepared for the future it is essential for us to use new research techniques embracing not only the familiar fields of hard sciences but also social, educational, ethical and economic aspects, We must find a way to build up the essential intellectual capacities needed to deal with these kinds of general problems within all nations and all societies. But this is not Although, we also have to find the necessary dynamical and highly flexible structures for a global governing using tools such as the environmental regime. The first step was the Framework Convention On Climate Change, UN 1992; for resolution of questions regarding implementations the Conference of the Parties was established.

  12. Regionalized Global Energy Scenarios Meeting Stringent Climate Targets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Regionalized Global Energy Scenarios Meeting Stringent Climate Targets ­ cost effective fuel in the energy system it is less costly to reduce CO2-emissions #12;Global energy system model #12;Global energy system model Optimisation #12;Global energy system model Optimisation Minimises the total cost under

  13. Global Evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP Continental Hydrological System. Part I: Comparison to GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Estimates

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    In earth system models, the partitioning of precipitation among the variations of continental water storage climate system sim- ulated by earth system models (ESMs). The continental freshwater reservoirs represent

  14. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  15. Global Solutions

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefieldSulfateSciTechtail.Theory ofDid you not findGeoscience/EnvironmentGlobal Security Global Security

  16. Global Warming

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration would likeUniverse (Journalvivo Low-Dose Low LETUseful LinksGlass StrongerGlobalOn1 Global

  17. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  18. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids Andrea Michiorri Arthur-based battery schedule optimisation in microgrids in presence of network constraints. We examine a specific case production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  19. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    electricity consumption in time. This paper investigates the ability on Artificial Neural Networks to predict shift electric energy. Keywords--Hot Water Consumption; Forecasting; Artifitial Neural Networks; SmartForecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks Linas Gelazanskas

  20. Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the forecast of electricity consumption for those years has been less than one half of a percent. Figure A-1 forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation and Electric Power Plan.1 Understanding growth in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining

  1. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make. The transportation fuel and crude oil import requirement assessments build on assumptions about California crude oil forecasts, transportation energy, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, crude oil production, fuel imports, crude oil

  2. A Deep Hybrid Model for Weather Forecasting Aditya Grover

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    @microsoft.com ABSTRACT Weather forecasting is a canonical predictive challenge that has depended primarily on model-based methods. We ex- plore new directions with forecasting weather as a data- intensive challenge that involves the joint statistics of a set of weather-related vari- ables. We show how the base model can be enhanced

  3. Hydrological Forecasting Improvements Primary Investigator: Thomas Croley -NOAA GLERL (Emeritus)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    multiple data streams in a near-real-time manner and incorporate them into the AHPS data base, run for matching weather forecasts with historical data, and prepare extensive forecasts of hydrology probabilities maximum use of all available information and be based on efficient and true hydrological process models

  4. DEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in a data base and graphic representation with tile standard meteorological icons on a map, e.g. iconsDEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA) by BENGT SIGURD, Sweden E-mail: linglund@gemini.ldc.lu.se FAX:46-(0)46 104210 Introduction and abstract Weather forecasts

  5. Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    markets could aid in the design of appropriate price forecasting tools for such markets. Scenario1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou, restructured wholesale power markets, scenario generation, ARMA model, moment-matching method I. INTRODUCTION

  6. Probabilistic forecasting of solar flares from vector magnetogram data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barnes, Graham

    Probabilistic forecasting of solar flares from vector magnetogram data G. Barnes,1 K. D. Leka,1 E to solar flare forecasting, adapted to provide the probability that a measurement belongs to either group, the groups in this case being solar active regions which produced a flare within 24 hours and those

  7. Human Trajectory Forecasting In Indoor Environments Using Geometric Context

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . In addressing this problem, we have built a model to estimate the occupancy behavior of humans based enhancement in the accuracy of trajectory forecasting by incorporating the occupancy behavior model. Keywords Trajectory forecasting, human occupancy behavior, 3D ge- ometric context 1. INTRODUCTION Given a human

  8. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data Office. Andrea Gough ran the summary energy model and supervised data preparation. Glen Sharp prepared models. Both the staff revised energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly higher than

  9. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

  10. MAINTENANCE, UPGRADE AND VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MAINTENANCE, UPGRADE AND VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF CLOUD COVER AND WATER VAPOUR Purchase Order 58311/ODG/99/8362/GWI/LET #12;i PREFACE Starting in August 1998, operational forecasts satellite imagery from the Co-operative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and upper

  11. Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hwang, Kai

    1 Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids Yogesh Simmhan. One of the characteristic applications of Smart Grids is demand response optimization (DR). The goal of DR is to use the power consumption time series data to reliable forecast the future consumption

  12. THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD ENERGY SERVICES by Steven Groves BASc of Research Project: The Desire to Acquire: Forecasting the Evolution of Household Energy Services Report No, and gasoline. A fixed effects panel model was used to examine the relationship of demand for energy

  13. Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting Ashish Kapoor, Zachary Horvitz, Spencer for observing weather phenomena at a continental scale. We focus specifically on the problem of wind forecasting with the sensed winds. The experiments show the promise of using airplane in flight as a large-scale sensor

  14. Classification of Commodity Price Forecast With Random Forests and Bayesian

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Freitas, Nando de

    on the sentiment of price39 forecasts and reports for commodities such as gold, natural gas or most commonly oil or natural gas can impact everything from the21 critical business decisions made within nationsClassification of Commodity Price Forecast Sentiment With Random Forests and Bayesian Optimization

  15. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    114 Solar Irradiance And Power Output Variabilityand L. Bangyin. Online 24-h solar power forecasting based onNielsen. Online short-term solar power forecasting. Solar

  16. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of numerical weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance weather prediction for intra?day solar  forecasting in the 

  17. Building Electricity Load Forecasting via Stacking Ensemble Learning Method with Moving Horizon Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burger, Eric M.; Moura, Scott J.

    2015-01-01

    K. W. Yau, “Predicting electricity energy con- sumption: Afor building-level electricity load forecasts,” Energy andannealing algorithms in electricity load forecasting,”

  18. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  19. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  20. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  1. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  2. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  3. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  4. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01

    to  predict daily solar radiation.   Agriculture and Forest and Chuo, S.   2008.  Solar radiation forecasting using Short?term forecasting of solar radiation:   A statistical 

  5. Forecasting long-term gas production Luis Cueto-Felguerosoa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Patzek, Tadeusz W.

    are transforming the United States economy and its energy outlook. Back in 2005, the US Energy Information Adminis in the global energy system (3). Estimates of long-term production and technically re- coverable resources are by increasing the length of a single well within the gas-bearing shale. Hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking" (9

  6. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  7. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  8. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  9. Global tree network for computing structures enabling global processing operations

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Blumrich; Matthias A. (Ridgefield, CT); Chen, Dong (Croton-On-Hudson, NY); Coteus, Paul W. (Yorktown Heights, NY); Gara, Alan G. (Mount Kisco, NY); Giampapa, Mark E. (Irvington, NY); Heidelberger, Philip (Cortlandt Manor, NY); Hoenicke, Dirk (Ossining, NY); Steinmacher-Burow, Burkhard D. (Mount Kisco, NY); Takken, Todd E. (Mount Kisco, NY); Vranas, Pavlos M. (Bedford Hills, NY)

    2010-01-19

    A system and method for enabling high-speed, low-latency global tree network communications among processing nodes interconnected according to a tree network structure. The global tree network enables collective reduction operations to be performed during parallel algorithm operations executing in a computer structure having a plurality of the interconnected processing nodes. Router devices are included that interconnect the nodes of the tree via links to facilitate performance of low-latency global processing operations at nodes of the virtual tree and sub-tree structures. The global operations performed include one or more of: broadcast operations downstream from a root node to leaf nodes of a virtual tree, reduction operations upstream from leaf nodes to the root node in the virtual tree, and point-to-point message passing from any node to the root node. The global tree network is configurable to provide global barrier and interrupt functionality in asynchronous or synchronized manner, and, is physically and logically partitionable.

  10. Global Evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP Continental Hydrological System. Part II: Uncertainties in River Routing Simulation Related to Flow

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    the entire globe. RRMs have been introduced into earth system models (ESMs) to convert the runoff simulated

  11. Use of Statistical Entropy and Life Cycle Analysis to Evaluate Global Warming Potential of Waste Management Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Columbia University

    different methods available for quantifying the environmental impact of waste management systems [1, 216-1915 #12;accounts for the tendency of waste management systems to either concentrate or dilute of conservation of mass [4]. In order to fully account for the flows of materials through waste management systems

  12. Global energy - assessing the future

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edmonds, J.; Reiley, J.M.

    1985-01-01

    This book applies various forecasts of energy use to the CO/sub 2/ problem. The effect of demographic factors and economic growth on energy consumption are considered and a model is proposed relating energy consumption and carbon dioxide; predictions are made up to the year 2050 and the uncertainties in these long-term energy projections considered. Energy forms taken into account include oil and gas (both conventional and unconventional), coal, nuclear energy, solar and wind power, hydroelectricity and ocean thermal energy conversion systems and biomass.

  13. Towards a Dynamic Data Driven Application System for Wildfire Simulation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Knyazev, Andrew

    -time weather data, images, and sensor streams. The system should change the forecast when new data is received (DDDAS) for short-range forecast of wildfire behavior with models steered by real-time weather data, images, and sensor streams. The forecast should be based on all available data, such as fuel maps

  14. Colibri: Towards a New Generation of Advanced Planning Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    forecasting consists in forecasting future sales based on past sales. In a company, one or several forecasters a company to another. However, in gen- eral, this period concerns the twelve future months. 4. Future salesColibri: Towards a New Generation of Advanced Planning Systems Fatoumata Camara Objet Direct

  15. Demand forecasting for aircraft engine aftermarket

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ho, Kien K. (Kine Kit)

    2008-01-01

    In 2006, Pratt and Whitney launched the Global Material Solutions business model aiming to supply spare parts to non-OEM engines with minimum 95% on-time delivery and fill-rate. Lacking essential technical knowledge of the ...

  16. Review: Global Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Jennifer

    2013-01-01

    introduction to global climate change, the greenhouseReview: Global Climate Change: A Primer By Orrin H PilkeyPilkey, Keith C. Global Climate Change: a primer. Durham,

  17. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  18. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  19. Global Warming* The Perfect Storm

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hansen, James E.

    Global Warming* The Perfect Storm Jim Hansen 29 January 2008 Health Implications of Climate Change opinion #12;Perfect Storm, Perfect Disaster 1. Great Inertia of Systems - Ocean: Half of Warming still "In

  20. CloudCast: Cloud Computing for Short-term Mobile Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    of Massachusetts Amherst Abstract--Since today's weather forecasts only cover large regions every few hours algorithm for generating accurate short-term weather forecasts. We study CloudCast's design space, which One useful application is mobile weather forecasting, which provides hour-to-hour forecasts