Sample records for global economic uncertainties

  1. Effects of the Uncertainty about Global Economic Recovery on Energy Transition and CO2 Price

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Durand-Lasserve, Olivier

    This paper examines the impact that uncertainty over economic growth may have on global energy transition and CO2 prices. We use a general-equilibrium model derived from MERGE, and define several stochastic scenarios for ...

  2. Uncertainty Analysis Economic Evaluations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bhulai, Sandjai

    uncertainties in typical oil and gas projects: 1. The oil price, 2. The investments (capex) and operating expenses (opex) for the project, 3. The number of wells and associated capex to recover the reserves, 4

  3. An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mercure, J F

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary mate...

  4. Key Implications of the Global Economic Environment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lansky, Joshua

    Key Implications of the Global Economic Environment For PCT Filings: A Survey of the Issues DMI...............................................................................9 Annex 1: Incentives for Patent Filing: The Analytical Framework...........................11 I-1 Intellectual property, innovation, and economic growth.................................13 2-2 Individual

  5. A Summary Report Fluctuating energy costs and economic uncertainties worldwide

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Minnesota, University of

    Club of Minneapolis and St. Paul Energy Uncertainties: Supply Chain Impacts in the Upper MidwestA Summary Report Fluctuating energy costs and economic uncertainties worldwide are disrupting Upper Midwest supply chains. While facing these challenges, participants throughout a supply chain need to con

  6. Effects of Globalization in Welfare An Islamic Economic Evaluation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 ABSTRACT Effects of Globalization in Welfare An Islamic Economic Evaluation Al-Jayousi, Ahmed, Effects of Globalization in Welfare: An Islamic Economic Evaluation, The Objective of this study to introduce an Islamic evaluation of globalization and welfare, as well as the strategies available

  7. Governing Economic Globalization: The Pioneering Experience of the OECD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levinson, David M.

    importance to the governance of the global economy. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and WTOGoverning Economic Globalization: The Pioneering Experience of the OECD Robert T. KUDRLE * The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has pioneered global governance in three areas

  8. Economics of Defense in a Globalized World

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MCGUIRE, MARTIN C

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    be influenced by economic incentives --- economic carrots orto identify the economic and strategic incentives by whicheconomic insight that this system is driven by incentives,

  9. Economic Globalization and a Nuclear Renaissance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wood, Thomas W.; Johnson, Wayne L.; Parker, Brian M.

    2001-10-22T23:59:59.000Z

    The phenomenon of globalization has become increasingly well recognized, documented, and analyzed in the last several years. Globalization, the integration of markets and intra-firm competition on a worldwide basis, involves complex behavioral and mindset changes within a firm that facilitate global competition. The changes revolve around efficient information flow and rapid deployment of technology. The objective of this report is to examine the probable characteristics of a global nuclear renaissance and its broad implications for industry structure and export control relative to nuclear technology. The question of how a modern renaissance would affect the trend toward globalization of the nuclear industry is addressed.

  10. Uncertainty in techno-economic estimates of cellulosic ethanol production due to experimental measurement uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vicari, Kristin Jenise

    Abstract Background Cost-effective production of lignocellulosic biofuels remains a major financial and technical challenge at the industrial scale. A critical tool in biofuels process development is the techno-economic ...

  11. Modeling aviation's global emissions, uncertainty analysis, and applications to policy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Joosung Joseph, 1974-

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    (cont.) fuel burn results below 3000 ft. For emissions, the emissions indices were the most influential uncertainties for the variance in model outputs. By employing the model, this thesis examined three policy options for ...

  12. Feedstock Economics for Global Steam Crackers

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCormack, G.; Pavone, T.

    ECONOMIC FACTORS pa~ticula~ count~y p~ovides compa~ative economics on which In calculating p~oduction costs design c~acklng feedstock in each ~egion, f~om the 5 p~oduces ethylene at the lowest alte~native c~acking feedstocks, cost. Compa~lng ~ows...~icing scena~ios. * local ta)(es & insu~ance LOW COST PRODUCERS RESULTS F~om Table 2, the low cost Using all of the above, SRI p~oduce~s a~e Indonesia, Saudi calculated ethylene p~oduction A~abia, South Ko~ea. the US Gulf cost, and cost plus 251. p...

  13. An Integrated Assessment Framework for Uncertainty Studies in Global and Regional Climate Change: The IGSM-CAM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    2012-06-18T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper describes an integrated assessment framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), ...

  14. The economics of long-term global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report is intended to provide an overview of economic issues and research relevant to possible, long-term global climate change. It is primarily a critical survey, not a statement of Administration or Department policy. This report should serve to indicate that economic analysis of global change is in its infancy few assertions about costs or benefits can be made with confidence. The state of the literature precludes any attempt to produce anything like a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis. Moreover, almost all the quantitative estimates regarding physical and economic effects in this report, as well as many of the qualitative assertions, are controversial. Section I provides background on greenhouse gas emissions and their likely climatic effects and on available policy instruments. Section II considers the costs of living with global change, assuming no substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Section III considers costs of reducing these emissions, though the available literature does not contain estimates of the costs of policies that would, on the assumptions of current climate models, prevent climate change altogether. The individual sections are not entirely compartmentalized, but can be read independently if necessary.

  15. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H. [eds.

    1992-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  16. Accounting for Global Climate Model Projection Uncertainty in Modern Statistical Downscaling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johannesson, G

    2010-03-17T23:59:59.000Z

    Future climate change has emerged as a national and a global security threat. To carry out the needed adaptation and mitigation steps, a quantification of the expected level of climate change is needed, both at the global and the regional scale; in the end, the impact of climate change is felt at the local/regional level. An important part of such climate change assessment is uncertainty quantification. Decision and policy makers are not only interested in 'best guesses' of expected climate change, but rather probabilistic quantification (e.g., Rougier, 2007). For example, consider the following question: What is the probability that the average summer temperature will increase by at least 4 C in region R if global CO{sub 2} emission increases by P% from current levels by time T? It is a simple question, but one that remains very difficult to answer. It is answering these kind of questions that is the focus of this effort. The uncertainty associated with future climate change can be attributed to three major factors: (1) Uncertainty about future emission of green house gasses (GHG). (2) Given a future GHG emission scenario, what is its impact on the global climate? (3) Given a particular evolution of the global climate, what does it mean for a particular location/region? In what follows, we assume a particular GHG emission scenario has been selected. Given the GHG emission scenario, the current batch of the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is used to simulate future climate under this scenario, yielding an ensemble of future climate projections (which reflect, to some degree our uncertainty of being able to simulate future climate give a particular GHG scenario). Due to the coarse-resolution nature of the GCM projections, they need to be spatially downscaled for regional impact assessments. To downscale a given GCM projection, two methods have emerged: dynamical downscaling and statistical (empirical) downscaling (SDS). Dynamic downscaling involves configuring and running a regional climate model (RCM) nested within a given GCM projection (i.e., the GCM provides bounder conditions for the RCM). On the other hand, statistical downscaling aims at establishing a statistical relationship between observed local/regional climate variables of interest and synoptic (GCM-scale) climate predictors. The resulting empirical relationship is then applied to future GCM projections. A comparison of the pros and cons of dynamical versus statistical downscaling is outside the scope of this effort, but has been extensively studied and the reader is referred to Wilby et al. (1998); Murphy (1999); Wood et al. (2004); Benestad et al. (2007); Fowler et al. (2007), and references within those. The scope of this effort is to study methodology, a statistical framework, to propagate and account for GCM uncertainty in regional statistical downscaling assessment. In particular, we will explore how to leverage an ensemble of GCM projections to quantify the impact of the GCM uncertainty in such an assessment. There are three main component to this effort: (1) gather the necessary climate-related data for a regional SDS study, including multiple GCM projections, (2) carry out SDS, and (3) assess the uncertainty. The first step is carried out using tools written in the Python programming language, while analysis tools were developed in the statistical programming language R; see Figure 1.

  17. Economic globalization and expressions of nationalism : a quantitative analysis of the present-day Chinese identity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bai, Peng Claire

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Economic globalization and growing interdependence have greatly facilitated the flows of trade, investment, and ideas among formerly hostile countries. However, political antagonism driven by nationalistic sentiments ...

  18. Global Warming What is Climate? Ocean's Role in Climate Change Uncertainty Quantification, the Next Frontier The Role Played by Oceans in Climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Restrepo, Juan M.

    Global Warming What is Climate? Ocean's Role in Climate Change Uncertainty Quantification, the Next Department University of Arizona October 11, 2008 #12;Global Warming What is Climate? Ocean's Role in Climate, Undergraduate Students: 2. UQGQG #12;Global Warming What is Climate? Ocean's Role in Climate Change Uncertainty

  19. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    due to first and second generation biofuels and uncertaintyIntroducing First and Second Generation Biofuels into GTAP

  20. An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model ...

  1. Globalization, Economic Reform, and Structural Price Transmission: SAM Decomposition Techniques with an empirical application to Vietnam

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kammen, Daniel M.

    1 Globalization, Economic Reform, and Structural Price Transmission: SAM Decomposition Techniques those which have been slow to reform systems of administered prices. Such allocation mechanisms now undermine reform and structural adjustments efforts in this important emerging Asian economy. Key words

  2. Climate change and agriculture : global and regional effects using an economic model of international trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reilly, John M.

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Empirical estimates of the economic welfare implications of the impact of climate change on global agricultural production are made. Agricultural yield changes resulting from climate scenarios associated with a doubling ...

  3. The Trinity of Equity, Equality and Poverty in the scenario of Economic Globalization: Which Institutions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    The Trinity of Equity, Equality and Poverty in the scenario of Economic Globalization: Which-biased than equity principle at work in case of taxation, property rights, and land reforms. In the trinity

  4. www.sida.se The Impact of the Global Economic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lansky, Joshua

    , December 02, 2010 Publication series: Women's Economic Empowerment A worker at a steel recycling mill the metal. There are no safety measures in place, and the work can be extremely dangerous. Photo: © G....................................................................................50 #12;Foreword Women's economic empowerment is a top priority in the work to reduce poverty. Women

  5. Global economic changes and income inequality: a test of four competing models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Morris, Theresa Marie

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    GLOBAL ECONOMIC CHANGES AND INCOME INEQUALITY: A TEST OF FOUR COMPETING MODELS A Thesis by THERESA MARK MORRIS Submitted to the OIEce of Graduate Studies of Texas ARM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree... of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1996 Major Subject: Sociology GLOBAL ECONOMIC CHANGES AND INCOME INEQUALITY: A TEST OF FOUR COMPETING MODELS A Thesis by THERESA MARIE MORRIS Submitted to Texas ARM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements...

  6. Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    to create jobs locally while having global benefits in terms of reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Secretary Chu's discussions over the past several weeks have included:...

  7. Global Health and Economic Impacts of Future Ozone Pollution

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort D.

    We assess the human health and economic impacts of projected 2000-2050 changes in ozone pollution using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis-Health Effects (EPPA-HE) model, in combination with results from the ...

  8. A global perspective on energy markets and economic integration.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baker, Arnold Barry

    2006-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    What will be the effect of Iraqi domestic instability on Iraqi oil production Negotiations for Iranian nuclear technology on Iranian oil supplies Saudi commitment to expanded oil production President Putin's policies on Russian oil and natural gas supplies President Chavez's policies on Venezuelan oil supplies Instability in Nigeria Higher oil prices on world economic growth Effect of economic growth on oil demand in China, India, U.S., etc. Higher oil prices on non-OPEC oil supplies

  9. Uncertainty in future carbon emissions : a preliminary exploration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort David.

    In order to analyze competing policy approaches for addressing global climate change, a wide variety of economic-energy models are used to project future carbon emissions under various policy scenarios. Due to uncertainties ...

  10. The US/Global Achilles heel : economic terrorism.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Backus, George A.

    2005-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    While loss of life is the operating concern of Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the security of the economy ultimately decides the success of the war on terrorism. This project focuses on mitigation, containment, response, and impact of terrorist events on the economy. Conventional economic methods are inadequate, but agent-based methods (Discrete Simulation) appears to uniquely capture the dynamics and emergent (human) behaviors.

  11. To appear in, Proc. of NAS Workshop on Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change, April 2010, and special issue of, Energy Economics Uncertainties in Technology Experience Curves for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , and special issue of, Energy Economics Uncertainties in Technology Experience Curves for Energy curves) relating reductions in the unit cost of energy and environmental technologies to their cumulative: Experience curve, learning curve, learning-by-doing, uncertainties, endogenous technological change, energy

  12. Accounting for global-mean warming and scaling uncertainties in climate change impact studies Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11(3), 12071226, 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Accounting for global-mean warming and scaling uncertainties in climate change impact studies 1207(s) 2007. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Accounting for global-mean warming from a few regional climate model runs are scaled, based on different global-mean warming projections

  13. ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION IN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katz, Richard

    .isse.ucar.edu/staff/katz/docs/pdf/samsirwk.pdf #12;Hurricane Andrew (1992) #12;Hurricane Irene (2011) #12;Quote John Tukey: "As I am sure almost Functions (5) Economic Damage Caused by Hurricanes (6) Return Levels Under Nonstationarity #12

  14. Why Global Health Matters The world is economically, politically, culturally, and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Saldin, Dilano

    Why Global Health Matters The world is economically, politically, culturally, and technologically, religious, and historical contexts of health, disease, and health care Paired with a related major can prepare students for work in preventative maternal and Collegeof Certificate programs are similar

  15. ECONOMIC MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ADOPTION OF CARBON CAPTURE AND SEQUESTRATION TECHNOLOGIES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ECONOMIC MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ADOPTION OF CARBON CAPTURE AND SEQUESTRATION TECHNOLOGIES J. R. Mc of carbon capture and sequestration technologies as applied to electric generating plants. The MIT Emissions, is used to model carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies based on a natural gas combined cycle

  16. PLASTIC RESINS INDUSTRY HIT HARD BY GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECESSION IN 2008

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laughlin, Robert B.

    , but buying only 4.5 billion pounds per month. Although the demand for plastics is ultimately tied to overallPLASTIC RESINS INDUSTRY HIT HARD BY GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECESSION IN 2008 The US plastic resins in the second half of the year. According to the American Chemistry Council (ACC) Plastics Industry Producers

  17. Global Economic Effects of USA Biofuel Policy and the Potential Contribution from Advanced Biofuels

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gbadebo Oladosu; Keith Kline; Paul Leiby; Rocio Uria-Martinez; Maggie Davis; Mark Downing; Laurence Eaton

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study evaluates the global economic effects of the USA renewable fuel standards (RFS2), and the potential contribution from advanced biofuels. Our simulation results imply that these mandates lead to an increase of 0.21 percent in the global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022, including an increase of 0.8 percent in the USA and 0.02 percent in the rest of the world (ROW); relative to our baseline, no-RFS scenario. The incremental contributions to GDP from advanced biofuels in 2022 are estimated at 0.41 percent and 0.04 percent in the USA and ROW, respectively. Although production costs of advanced biofuels are higher than for conventional biofuels in our model, their economic benefits result from reductions in oil use, and their smaller impacts on food markets compared with conventional biofuels. Thus, the USA advanced biofuels targets are expected to have positive economic benefits.

  18. Uncertainties on alpha(S) in global PDF analyses and implications for predicted hadronic cross sections.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Martin, A D; Stirling, W James; Thorne, Robert S; Watt, G

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    alone, which at first sight seems to contradict previous findings 4The low y data points from BCDMS are strongly affected by the energy scale uncertainty of the scattered muon. It has been advocated to impose a cut of y > 0.3 on the BCDMS data, which... . The preference of the F charm2 data for this is borne out by comparing both the values of ?2n,0 at each order and the shape of the profile, i.e. the NLO fit tries to flatten the slope with a lower coupling. The 10 MSTW 2008 NLO (?S) MSTW 2008 NNLO (?S) )2 Z (MS?...

  19. Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schmitz, Christoph; van Meijl, Hans; Kyle, G. Page; Nelson, Gerald C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gurgel, Angelo; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; von Lampe, Martin; Wise, Marshall A.; Blanc, Elodie; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Valin, Hugo

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 1025% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.

  20. 15.023J / 12.848J / ESD.128J Global Climate Change: Economics, Science, and Policy, Spring 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jacoby, Henry D.

    Introduces scientific, economic, and ecological issues underlying the threat of global climate change, and the institutions engaged in negotiating an international response. Develops an integrated approach to analysis of ...

  1. 15.023J / 12.848J / ESD.128J Global Climate Change: Economics, Science, and Policy, Spring 2004

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jacoby, Henry D.

    Introduces scientific, economic, and ecological issues underlying the threat of global climate change, and the institutions engaged in negotiating an international response. Develops an integrated approach to analysis of ...

  2. Global Economic Effects of Changes in Crops, Pasture, and Forests due to Changing Climate, Carbon Dioxide, and Ozone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reilly, John M.

    Multiple environmental changes will have consequences for global vegetation. To the extent that crop yields and pasture and forest productivity are affected there can be important economic consequences. We examine the ...

  3. Uncertainty in environmental economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pindyck, Robert S.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In a world of certainty, the design of environmental policy is relatively straightforward, and boils down to maximizing the present value of the flow of social benefits minus costs. But the real world is one of considerable ...

  4. The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

  5. Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Kyle, G. Page; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Havlik, Petr; van Meijl, Hans; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Popp, Alexander; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk; Wise, Marshall A.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, e.g. from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an RCP2.6-type scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in an RCP8.5-type scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.

  6. Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hernandez, Jacquelynne; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Jennings, Barbara Joan; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Brown, Theresa Jean; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subset of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.

  7. Securing the Sustainability of Global Medical Nuclear Supply Chains Through Economic Cost Recovery, Risk Management, and Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    , Radioactive decay 1 #12;1. Introduction Each day, 41,000 nuclear medical procedures are performedSecuring the Sustainability of Global Medical Nuclear Supply Chains Through Economic Cost Recovery of the complex operations of medical nuclear supply chains in the case of the radioisotope molybdenum

  8. "Japan and the EU in the global economy -challenges and opportunities" Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Banbara, Mutsunori

    "Japan and the EU in the global economy - challenges and opportunities" Bruegel Graduate School and financial linkages between Europe and Japan: new evidence and scope for improvement Andr Sapir, Senior of Economics, Kobe University; Senior Research Fellow, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan

  9. Invited Paper, Conference on Global Change: Economic Issues in Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Resources. Washington, D.C. November 19-21, 1990.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarl, Bruce A.

    * Invited Paper, Conference on Global Change: Economic Issues in Agriculture, Forestry and Natural of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Oregon State University; Ching-Cheng Chang and Bruce McCarl are Visiting Assistant Professor and Professor, respectively, Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University

  10. Sustainability and Management Education in China and India: Enabling a Global Green Economic Transition

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Edwards, Paul N.

    education in recent years. Most notably, the United Nations' Global Compact Principles of Responsible

  11. Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.

  12. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    uncertainty on investment: Evidence from TEXAS oil drilling.investment decisions to changes in uncertainty using Texas oiloil price uncertainty deters var- ious types of real economic activities, such as output production, investment,

  13. Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort David.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Mayer, Monika.; Reilly, John M.; Harnisch, Jochen.; Hyman, Robert C.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Wang, Chien.

    Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a ...

  14. The economic impact of global climate and tropospheric oxone on world agricultural production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Xiaodu

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The objective of my thesis is to analyze the economic impact on agriculture production from changes in climate and tropospheric ozone, and related policy interventions. The analysis makes use of the Emissions Prediction ...

  15. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What'sis Taking Over Our Instagram Secretary Moniz9 SeptemberSettingUncertainties in the Short-Term

  16. Economic slowdown in the US, rehabilitation of fiscal policy and the case for a co-ordinated global reflation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Izurieta, Alex

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    strategic solutions as suggested by a macroeconomic model of t he US (a revised update of Godley, 1999c). The final section will underscore the policy option of a co-ordinated global reflation as the means to avoid concurrent, large-scale implosion... of that peak, it was tempting to believe that the economic expansion caused by faster productivity would maintain its upward trend, perhaps indefinitely. A. I ZURIETA - CERF ; U NIVERSITY OF C AMBRIDGE 5 Chart 1: GDP and Productivity Growth in the U...

  17. On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price dynamics of energy commodities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mercure, Jean-Francois

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolution of the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non-renewable resources, their consumption, depletion pathways and timescales. Such marginal costs can be used to simulate the long term average price formation of energy commodities. Drawing on previous work where a global database of energy resource economic potentials was constructed, this work uses cost distributions of non-renewable resources in order to evaluate global flows of energy commodities. A mathematical framework is given to calculate endogenous flows of energy resources given an exogenous commodity price path. This framework can be used in reverse in order to calculate an exogenous marginal cost of production of energy carriers given an exogenous carrier demand. Using rigid price inelastic assumptions independent of the economy, these two approaches generate limiting scenarios that depict extreme use of natural resources. This is useful to characterise the cur...

  18. Analysis of Global Economic and Environmental Impacts of a Substantial Increase in Bioenergy Wallace E. Tyner (wtyner@purdue.edu), Thomas W. Hertel, Farzad Taheripour*, and Dileep K. Birur

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Analysis of Global Economic and Environmental Impacts of a Substantial Increase in Bioenergy have profound global economic, environmental, and social consequences. Current studies do not provide of biofuels and lack of comprehensive studies on global impacts have opened up several research avenues. Since

  19. Modeling the Oil Transition: A Summary of the Proceedings of the DOE/EPA Workshop on the Economic and Environmental Implications of Global Energy Transitions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greene, David L [ORNL

    2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The global energy system faces sweeping changes in the next few decades, with potentially critical implications for the global economy and the global environment. It is important that global institutions have the tools necessary to predict, analyze and plan for such massive change. This report summarizes the proceedings of an international workshop concerning methods of forecasting, analyzing, and planning for global energy transitions and their economic and environmental consequences. A specific case, it focused on the transition from conventional to unconventional oil and other energy sources likely to result from a peak in non-OPEC and/or global production of conventional oil. Leading energy models from around the world in government, academia and the private sector met, reviewed the state-of-the-art of global energy modeling and evaluated its ability to analyze and predict large-scale energy transitions.

  20. Global economics/energy/environmental (E{sup 3}) modeling of long-term nuclear energy futures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Krakowski, R.A.; Davidson, J.W.; Bathke, C.G.; Arthur, E.D.; Wagner, R.L. Jr.

    1997-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A global energy, economics, environment (E{sup 3}) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Using this model, consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed. A spectrum of future is examined at two levels in a hierarchy of scenario attributes in which drivers are either external or internal to nuclear energy. Impacts of a range of nuclear fuel-cycle scenarios are reflected back to the higher-level scenario attributes. An emphasis is placed on nuclear materials inventories (in magnitude, location, and form) and their contribution to the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy and the future competitiveness of both conventional and advanced nuclear reactors.

  1. Economic History Revisited: New Uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to the southern and midwestern regions of the United States. However, the large run-up in oil prices is increasing shown vacancy rates higher than the historical average, while companies seeking properties for sale are paying ever-increasing prices for fewer available sites. Warehouse sites in the southern portion

  2. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    vector consisting of quarterly global crude oil production,crude oil price and real economic activity. The real economic activity is measured by the industrial production

  3. Nanotechnology and Innovation, Recent status and the strategic implication for the formation of high tech clusters in Greece, in between a global economic crisis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gkanas, Evangelos I; Makridis, Sofoklis S; Stubos, Athanasios K; Bakouros, Ioannis

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Nanotechnology is the first major worldwide research initiative of the 21st century and probably is the solution vector in the economic environment. Also, innovation is widely recognized as a key factor in the economic development of nations, and is essential for the competitiveness of the industrial firms as well. Policy and management of innovation are necessary in order to develop innovation and it involves processes. It is essential to develop new methods for nanotechnology development for better understanding of nanotechnology based innovation. Nanotechnologies reveal commercialization processes, from start ups to large firms in collaboration with public sector research. In the current paper, a study in the present status of innovation in nanotechnology and the affection of global economic crisis in this section is made and also the potential of increase the innovation via the presence of clusters in a small country like Greece which is in the eye of tornado from the global crisis is studied.

  4. Global Warming, endogenous risk and irreversibility

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fisher, Anthony C.; Narain, Urvashi

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The economics of global warming, Institute for InternationalEconomic Models of Global Warming, Cambridge, Mass. MITstochastic losses from global warming, Risk Analysis 16(2):

  5. A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 20082009 Economic Crisis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Korotayev, Andrey V; Tsirel, Sergey V.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and Significance of Kuznets Cycles. Economic Development andUniversity Press. Kuznets S. 1930. Secular Movements inSchumpeter and Kuznets: Trend Periods Revisited. Journal of

  6. On the value of 3D seismic amplitude data to reduce uncertainty in the forecast of reservoir production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Torres-Verdn, Carlos

    .elsevier.com/locate/petrol #12;1. Introduction Flow simulations are routinely used as the main input to the economical evaluation production Omar J. Varela 1 , Carlos Torres-Verdin*, Larry W. Lake Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering of production, did exhibit an uncertainty reduction as did a global measure of recovery. We evaluate how

  7. Engaging Regions in Globalization: The Rise of the Economic Relationship between the San Francisco Bay Area and China

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Volberding, Peter

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    vitality. Globalization and the Region The world economy,Bay Area economy has achieved a high level of globalizationglobalization, notes that the expansion and specialization of the global economy

  8. Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    NVLAP Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty #12;Assessor Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 3 Measurement Uncertainty Calibration and testing labs performing Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 4 Measurement Uncertainty When the nature of the test precludes

  9. Global Environmental Change 14 (2004) 105123 Downscaling and geo-spatial gridding of socio-economic projections

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Global Environmental Change 14 (2004) 105­123 Downscaling and geo-spatial gridding of socio Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA b Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), 61 work. r 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Greenhouse gas emissions scenarios

  10. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS &INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS &INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS & THE GLOBAL ECONOMYTHE GLOBAL ECONOMYTHE GLOBAL ECONOMY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Krylov, Anna I.

    GLOBAL ECONOMYTHE GLOBAL ECONOMY This major offers students rigorous interdisciplinary training 331: The Global Economy 2030 -- Examination of key ideas from economics, demography and technology. Guest lecturers illuminate possible conditions of the global economy in 2030. IR 454: International

  11. Adaptive control of hypersonic vehicles in presence of actuation uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Somanath, Amith

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The thesis develops a new class of adaptive controllers that guarantee global stability in presence of actuation uncertainties. Actuation uncertainties culminate to linear plants with a partially known input matrix B. ...

  12. 5, 45074543, 2005 Uncertainty analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Universit de

    parameterization, the representation of the in-cloud updraft velocity, the relationship between effective radius10 of the study of aerosol effects on the global climate, uncertainty in the estimation of the indirect aerosol the aerosol chemical and physical properties and cloud microphysics. Aerosols influence cloud radiative

  13. THE ECONOMIC SITUATION IN THE ECE REGION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    THE ECONOMIC SITUATION IN THE ECE REGION DIETER HESSE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DIVISION UNECE #12;Major trends in the global economy so far in 2003 Global economic activity picked up ­ but uneven regional growth forces United States remains main engine of global economic growth Japan and Asian emerging

  14. Uncertainty analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, R.E.

    1982-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software.

  15. Economics Undergraduate BSc Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burton, Geoffrey R.

    Economics Undergraduate BSc Economics BSc Economics and Politics #12;www.bath.ac.uk/economics Welcome to the Department of Economics The Department has a strong international research reputation in mainstream economics. Our teaching is internationally respected and our students are in demand by employers

  16. Economics Postgraduate MSc Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burton, Geoffrey R.

    Economics Postgraduate MSc Economics MSc Economics & Finance MSc International Money & Banking #12;www.bath.ac.uk/economics Welcome to the Department of Economics The Department offers a range. The Department has a strong international research reputation in mainstream economics. Our teaching and research

  17. University of Wisconsin Department of Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sheridan, Jennifer

    University of Wisconsin Department of Economics Economics 548: The Economics of Health Care Spring, uncertainty, government involvement, and externalities, the economics of the health care sector and its will learn how to apply microeconomic tools to study the medical care system and analyze the economic aspects

  18. CHARTING BC'S ECONOMIC FUTURE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kavanagh, Karen L.

    CHARTING BC'S ECONOMIC FUTURE discussionguide 100communityconversations #12;1 Thank you for agreeing to participate in this Community Conversation about BC's economic future. Each year Simon Fraser is "Charting BC's Economic Future". Faced with an increasingly competitive global economy, it is more important

  19. Global Economy and IT IT: Recovery and Growth Government and IT IT and Society Strengthening Economies Innovation in information technology (IT) has fueled unprecedented economic gains in the last 30

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Narasayya, Vivek

    Global Economy and IT IT: Recovery and Growth Government and IT IT and Society Strengthening Economies Innovation in information technology (IT) has fueled unprecedented economic gains in the last 30-term stimulus to local economies but also position both developed and developing economies to compete

  20. Urban Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Quigley, John M.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    property taxation regional economics residential segregationexternalities urban economics urban production externalitiesproperty taxation regional economics residential segregation

  1. Optimal timing problems in environmental economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pindyck, Robert S.

    2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Because of the uncertainties and irreversibilities that are often inherent in environmental degradation, its prevention, and its economic consequences, environmental policy design can involve important problems of timing. ...

  2. The Economic Slide Abates but Uncertainty Abounds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A (page 2). Manufacturing continued to be the leading edge of decline, losing 27,500 jobs. The approximately 900,000 manufacturing jobs once housed in the state in 1969 (33 percent of total employment) have. The rate reached as high as 17.2 percent during the first quarter of 2002. In addition, Somerset County

  3. The effects of incorporating dynamic data on estimates of uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mulla, Shahebaz Hisamuddin

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    in production forecasts will help in assessing risk and making good economic decisions. This study investigates the effect of combining dynamic data with the uncertainty in static data to see the effect on estimates of uncertainty in production forecasting... combined with linear uncertainty analysis. The results were compared with the uncertainty predicted using only static data. We also investigated approaches for best selecting a smaller number of models from a larger set of realizations to be history...

  4. Quantum Theory of Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vladimir I. Zverev; Alexander M. Tishin

    2009-01-29T23:59:59.000Z

    In the given work the first attempt to generalize quantum uncertainty relation on macro objects is made. Business company as one of economical process participants was chosen by the authors for this purpose. The analogies between quantum micro objects and the structures which from the first sight do not have anything in common with physics are given. The proof of generalized uncertainty relation is produced. With the help of generalized uncertainty relation the authors wanted to elaborate a new non-traditional approach to the description of companies' business activity and their developing and try to formulate some advice for them. Thus, our work makes the base of quantum theory of econimics

  5. Agricultural and Resource Economics Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    incentives to contribute to the global commons of disease pre- vention, while high-income countries will benefit most in economic

  6. Saskia Sassen and the Sociology of Globalization: A Critical Appraisal

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robinson, William I.

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Economic globalization denationalizes national economies andGlobalization and the Postcolonial World: The New Political Economywidely on globalization from a political-economy approach.

  7. Sales & operations planning in a global business

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Honstain, Christopher Michael

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    As companies become more global and begin to outsource manufacturing and other services, the uncertainty in the supply resource increases. Demand uncertainties increase as these same companies expand into new countries to ...

  8. The global warming signal is the average of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jones, Peter JS

    , uncertainty in the isopycnal diffusivity causes uncertainty of up to 50% in the global warming signalThe global warming signal is the average of years 70-80 in the increasing CO2 run minus the average represent significant uncertainty in the global warming signal (Fig. 5). The differences at high latitudes

  9. Global Aerosol Health Impacts: Quantifying Uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Selin, Noelle E.

    Atmospheric fine particulate matter <2.5 ?m (PM2.5) can cause cardiovasculatory and respiratory damages and mortalities. Assessing population exposure to and damages from PM2.5 is important for policy, but measurement ...

  10. Application of price uncertainty quantification models and their impacts on project evaluations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fariyibi, Festus Lekan

    2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This study presents an analysis of several recently published methods for quantifying the uncertainty in economic evaluations due to uncertainty in future oil prices. Conventional price forecasting methods used in the industry typically...

  11. Application of price uncertainty quantification models and their impacts on project evaluations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fariyibi, Festus Lekan

    2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This study presents an analysis of several recently published methods for quantifying the uncertainty in economic evaluations due to uncertainty in future oil prices. Conventional price forecasting methods used in the industry typically...

  12. Electronic Communities: Global Village or Cyberbalkans?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Electronic Communities: Global Village or Cyberbalkans? Marshall Van Alstyne Erik Brynjolfsson Tel KEYWORDS: Information Economy (AD02), Economic Theory (AM), Economic Impacts (BA01), Computerization of Society (BD0101), Organizational Structure (DA03), Information Flows (DD07), Globalization (AF1301

  13. Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Mccomiskey, Allison

    Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

  14. Uncertainty, loss aversion, and markets for energy efficiency

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greene, David L [ORNL

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Increasing energy efficiency is critical to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from fossil-fuel combustion, reducing oil dependence, and achieving a sustainable global energy system. The tendency of markets to neglect apparently cost-effective energy efficiency options has been called the efficiency gap or energy paradox. The market for energy efficiency in new, energy-using durable goods, however, appears to have a bias that leads to undervaluation of future energy savings relative to their expected value. This paper argues that the bias is chiefly produced by the combination of substantial uncertainty about the net value of future fuel savings and the loss aversion of typical consumers. This framework relies on the theory of contextdependent preferences. The uncertainty-loss aversion bias against energy efficiency is quantifiable, making it potentially correctible by policy measures. The welfare economics of such policies remains unresolved. Data on the costs of increased fuel economy of new passenger cars, taken from a National Research Council study, illustrate how an apparently cost-effective increase in energy efficiency would be uninteresting to lossaverse consumers.

  15. Fractured elites : the politics of economic crisis in Mexico

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schlefer, Jonathan King

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Economic crises are such powerful socioeconomic disasters that, not surprisingly, they are usually explained by powerful socioeconomic pressures, such as global financial speculation, structural economic failure, or populist ...

  16. Uncertainties in Gapped Graphene

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eylee Jung; Kwang S. Kim; DaeKil Park

    2012-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Motivated by graphene-based quantum computer we examine the time-dependence of the position-momentum and position-velocity uncertainties in the monolayer gapped graphene. The effect of the energy gap to the uncertainties is shown to appear via the Compton-like wavelength $\\lambda_c$. The uncertainties in the graphene are mainly contributed by two phenomena, spreading and zitterbewegung. While the former determines the uncertainties in the long-range of time, the latter gives the highly oscillation to the uncertainties in the short-range of time. The uncertainties in the graphene are compared with the corresponding values for the usual free Hamiltonian $\\hat{H}_{free} = (p_1^2 + p_2^2) / 2 M$. It is shown that the uncertainties can be under control within the quantum mechanical law if one can choose the gap parameter $\\lambda_c$ freely.

  17. Uncertainty in Greenhouse Emissions and Costs of Atmospheric Stabilization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort D.

    We explore the uncertainty in projections of emissions, and costs of atmospheric stabilization applying the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model, a computable general equilibrium model of the global economy. ...

  18. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods for improving design robustness and reliability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    He, Qinxian, Ph. D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Engineering systems of the modern day are increasingly complex, often involving numerous components, countless mathematical models, and large, globally-distributed design teams. These features all contribute uncertainty ...

  19. AgriculturAl And resource economics Anthropology child development communicAtion community development culturAl studies ecology economics environmentAl policy And mAnAgement* geogrAphy globAl heAlth

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schladow, S. Geoffrey

    -renowned program study the production, distribution, and consumption of food, fiber, and energy in both developed and improving government policy, market performance, environmental quality, the efficiency of natural resource, politics, cultures of history, identity, sexuality, film, media and visual anthropology, globalization

  20. Water Management, Risk, and Uncertainty: Things We Wish We Knew in the 21st

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shaw, W. Douglass

    Water Management, Risk, and Uncertainty: Things We Wish We Knew in the 21st Century [Forthcoming;1 Introduction A survey is offered of the most difficult and challenging issues to water managers in the 21st Century, focusing on the economics of risks and more so, uncertainty. Risk and uncertainty is addressed

  1. Construction and AvailabilityConstruction and Availability Uncertainty in the RegionalUncertainty in the Regional

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Page 1 Construction and AvailabilityConstruction and Availability Uncertainty in the Regional and Technology Availability Construction Costs Economic Retirement Variable Capacity for Existing Units #12;Page to construction power plants or to take other action May include policies for particular resources "Scenario

  2. The Economics Department of Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    The Economics Initiative Department of Economics #12;Economics at LSE The Department of Economics is the top ranked economics department in Europe and among the top 12 worldwide. It is one of the largest economics departments in the world, with over 60 faculty and 1,000 students and a department which makes

  3. Estimating the Economic Cost of Sea-Level Rise

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sugiyama, Masahiro.

    To improve the estimate of economic costs of future sea-level rise associated with global climate change,

  4. Consulting Assistance on Economic Discussion Papers

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Consulting Assistance on Economic Reform II Discussion Papers The objectives of the Consulting Assistance on Economic Reform (CAER II) project are to contribute to broad-based and sustainable economic, Bureau for Global Programs, Field Support and Research, Center for Economic Growth and Agricultural

  5. Uncertainty analysis of river flooding and dam failure risks using local sensitivity computations.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Universit de

    Uncertainty analysis of river flooding and dam failure risks using local sensitivity computations) for uncertainty analysis with respect to two major types of risk in river hydrodynamics: flash flood and dam failure. LSA is com- pared to a Global Uncertainty Analysis (GUA) consisting in running Monte Carlo

  6. LIGHTS: Laboratory for Information Globalization and Harmonization Technologies and Studies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choucri, Nazli

    2004-03-05T23:59:59.000Z

    Three important trends - unrelenting globalization, growing worldwide electronic connectivity, and increasing knowledge intensity of economic activity - are creating new opportunities for global politics, with challenging ...

  7. Environmental Modeling: Coping with Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Politcnica de Catalunya, Universitat

    Statistical heterogeneity Complex correlation structures Classical models: Additive noise UniEnvironmental Modeling: Coping with Uncertainty Daniel M. Tartakovsky (dmt@lanl.gov) Theoretical of environmental processes 2. Parametric uncertainty 3. Current approaches to uncertainty quantification 4. Random

  8. Globalization, Labor, Transformation of Work

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in an Increasingly Global Economy Edited by Jonathan H. Westover THE ORGANISATION #12;First published in Australia in an increasingly global economy Jonathan H. Westover (editor) Bibliography. 978 1 86335 660 2 (pbk.) 978 1 86335 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Economic Globalization and Caribbean Economies, Syed H. Akhter, Paul Pounder

  9. Trajectories without quantum uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eugene S. Polzik; Klemens Hammerer

    2014-05-13T23:59:59.000Z

    A common knowledge suggests that trajectories of particles in quantum mechanics always have quantum uncertainties. These quantum uncertainties set by the Heisenberg uncertainty principle limit precision of measurements of fields and forces, and ultimately give rise to the standard quantum limit in metrology. With the rapid developments of sensitivity of measurements these limits have been approached in various types of measurements including measurements of fields and acceleration. Here we show that a quantum trajectory of one system measured relatively to the other "reference system" with an effective negative mass can be quantum uncertainty--free. The method crucially relies on the generation of an Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen entangled state of two objects, one of which has an effective negative mass. From a practical perspective these ideas open the way towards force and acceleration measurements at new levels of sensitivity far below the standard quantum limit.

  10. Mihaylo College of Business and Economics Department of Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    competing uses in a global economy and across different market structures under conditions of limited of government in the economy in the context of business activity, income distribution, economic growth, globalization and market failure. Engage in policy oriented analysis To understand the theory used to analyze

  11. Climate Change Economics and Policy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Romano, Daniela

    AFRICA COLLEGE Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Adapting to Climate Change 3 CLIMATE...Furthermore, there is strong scientific evidence that climate change will disrupt the global economy, environment and society a growing population in a changing climate is, therefore, a major global challenge. Changes in climate

  12. Global Statistics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Crow, Ben D

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    1996). Globalization in Question: International Economy andGlobalization; Justice; Poverty; Underground Economy; United

  13. Optimal Uncertainty Quantification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Owhadi, Houman; Sullivan, Timothy John; McKerns, Mike; Ortiz, Michael

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We propose a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which the UQ objectives and the assumptions/information set are brought to the forefront. This framework, which we call \\emph{Optimal Uncertainty Quantification} (OUQ), is based on the observation that, given a set of assumptions and information about the problem, there exist optimal bounds on uncertainties: these are obtained as extreme values of well-defined optimization problems corresponding to extremizing probabilities of failure, or of deviations, subject to the constraints imposed by the scenarios compatible with the assumptions and information. In particular, this framework does not implicitly impose inappropriate assumptions, nor does it repudiate relevant information. Although OUQ optimization problems are extremely large, we show that under general conditions, they have finite-dimensional reductions. As an application, we develop \\emph{Optimal Concentration Inequalities} (OCI) of Hoeffding and McDiarmid type. Surprisingly, contr...

  14. Uncertainty and calibration analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1991-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    All measurements contain some deviation from the true value which is being measured. In the common vernacular this deviation between the true value and the measured value is called an inaccuracy, an error, or a mistake. Since all measurements contain errors, it is necessary to accept that there is a limit to how accurate a measurement can be. The undertainty interval combined with the confidence level, is one measure of the accuracy for a measurement or value. Without a statement of uncertainty (or a similar parameter) it is not possible to evaluate if the accuracy of the measurement, or data, is appropriate. The preparation of technical reports, calibration evaluations, and design calculations should consider the accuracy of measurements and data being used. There are many methods to accomplish this. This report provides a consistent method for the handling of measurement tolerances, calibration evaluations and uncertainty calculations. The SRS Quality Assurance (QA) Program requires that the uncertainty of technical data and instrument calibrations be acknowledged and estimated. The QA Program makes some specific technical requirements related to the subject but does not provide a philosophy or method on how uncertainty should be estimated. This report was prepared to provide a technical basis to support the calculation of uncertainties and the calibration of measurement and test equipment for any activity within the Experimental Thermal-Hydraulics (ETH) Group. The methods proposed in this report provide a graded approach for estimating the uncertainty of measurements, data, and calibrations. The method is based on the national consensus standard, ANSI/ASME PTC 19.1.

  15. ECONOMICSECONOMICSECONOMICS From healthcare to the environment to law, economic theories help make sense

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Krylov, Anna I.

    ECONOMICSECONOMICSECONOMICS From healthcare to the environment to law, economic theories help make sense of complex issues. In USC Dornsife's Economics department, economic theory is intertwined like the economics of happiness and the economics of uncertainty were honed within USC Dornsife walls

  16. Benefits to the United States of Increasing Global Uptake of Clean Energy Technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kline, D.

    2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A previous report describes an opportunity for the United States to take leadership in efforts to transform the global energy system toward clean energy technologies (CET). An accompanying analysis to that report provides estimates of the economic benefits to the United States of such a global transformation on the order of several hundred billion dollars per year by 2050. This report describes the methods and assumptions used in developing those benefit estimates. It begins with a summary of the results of the analysis based on an updated and refined model completed since the publication of the previous report. The framework described can be used to estimate the economic benefits to the U.S. of coordinated global action to increase the uptake of CETs worldwide. Together with a Monte Carlo simulation engine, the framework can be used to develop plausible ranges for benefits, taking into account the large uncertainty in the driving variables and economic parameters. The resulting estimates illustrate that larger global clean energy markets offer significant opportunities to the United States economy.

  17. Fitting Parton Distribution Data with Multiplicative Normalization Uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    The NNPDF Collaboration; Richard D. Ball; Luigi Del Debbio; Stefano Forte; Alberto Guffanti; Jose I. Latorre; Juan Rojo; Maria Ubiali

    2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We consider the generic problem of performing a global fit to many independent data sets each with a different overall multiplicative normalization uncertainty. We show that the methods in common use to treat multiplicative uncertainties lead to systematic biases. We develop a method which is unbiased, based on a self--consistent iterative procedure. We demonstrate the use of this method by applying it to the determination of parton distribution functions with the NNPDF methodology, which uses a Monte Carlo method for uncertainty estimation.

  18. Uncertainty and error in computational simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oberkampf, W.L.; Diegert, K.V.; Alvin, K.F.; Rutherford, B.M.

    1997-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The present paper addresses the question: ``What are the general classes of uncertainty and error sources in complex, computational simulations?`` This is the first step of a two step process to develop a general methodology for quantitatively estimating the global modeling and simulation uncertainty in computational modeling and simulation. The second step is to develop a general mathematical procedure for representing, combining and propagating all of the individual sources through the simulation. The authors develop a comprehensive view of the general phases of modeling and simulation. The phases proposed are: conceptual modeling of the physical system, mathematical modeling of the system, discretization of the mathematical model, computer programming of the discrete model, numerical solution of the model, and interpretation of the results. This new view is built upon combining phases recognized in the disciplines of operations research and numerical solution methods for partial differential equations. The characteristics and activities of each of these phases is discussed in general, but examples are given for the fields of computational fluid dynamics and heat transfer. They argue that a clear distinction should be made between uncertainty and error that can arise in each of these phases. The present definitions for uncertainty and error are inadequate and. therefore, they propose comprehensive definitions for these terms. Specific classes of uncertainty and error sources are then defined that can occur in each phase of modeling and simulation. The numerical sources of error considered apply regardless of whether the discretization procedure is based on finite elements, finite volumes, or finite differences. To better explain the broad types of sources of uncertainty and error, and the utility of their categorization, they discuss a coupled-physics example simulation.

  19. Optimization Under Generalized Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lodwick, Weldon

    11 Optimization Under Generalized Uncertainty Optimization Modeling Math 4794/5794: Spring 2013 Weldon A. Lodwick Weldon.Lodwick@ucdenver.edu 2/14/2013 Optimization Modeling - Spring 2013 #12 in the context of optimization problems. The theoretical frame-work for these notes is interval analysis. From

  20. Econ 126 syllabus Fall 2007 Prof. Bhattacharya Economics 126: Economics of Health and Medical Care

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ford, James

    ) "Economics, Values, and Health Care Reform," American Economic Review 86(1):1-24 · Arrow (1963) "Uncertainty by health economists. This class will provide an introduction to the health care system in the U.S. We will discuss some of the key concepts that health economists use to analyze health care markets. Finally, we

  1. Applying uncertainty quantification to multiphase flow computational fluid dynamics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gel, A.; Garg, R.; Tong, C.; Shahnam, M.; Guenther, C.

    2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Multiphase computational fluid dynamics plays a major role in design and optimization of fossil fuel based reactors. There is a growing interest in accounting for the influence of uncertainties associated with physical systems to increase the reliability of computational simulation based engineering analysis. The U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has recently undertaken an initiative to characterize uncertainties associated with computer simulation of reacting multiphase flows encountered in energy producing systems such as a coal gasifier. The current work presents the preliminary results in applying non-intrusive parametric uncertainty quantification and propagation techniques with NETL's open-source multiphase computational fluid dynamics software MFIX. For this purpose an open-source uncertainty quantification toolkit, PSUADE developed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has been interfaced with MFIX software. In this study, the sources of uncertainty associated with numerical approximation and model form have been neglected, and only the model input parametric uncertainty with forward propagation has been investigated by constructing a surrogate model based on data-fitted response surface for a multiphase flow demonstration problem. Monte Carlo simulation was employed for forward propagation of the aleatory type input uncertainties. Several insights gained based on the outcome of these simulations are presented such as how inadequate characterization of uncertainties can affect the reliability of the prediction results. Also a global sensitivity study using Sobol' indices was performed to better understand the contribution of input parameters to the variability observed in response variable.

  2. Uncertainty Principle Respects Locality

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dongsheng Wang

    2015-04-19T23:59:59.000Z

    The notion of nonlocality implicitly implies there might be some kind of spooky action at a distance in nature, however, the validity of quantum mechanics has been well tested up to now. In this work it is argued that the notion of nonlocality is physically improper, the basic principle of locality in nature is well respected by quantum mechanics, namely, the uncertainty principle. We show that the quantum bound on the Clauser, Horne, Shimony, and Holt (CHSH) inequality can be recovered from the uncertainty relation in a multipartite setting. We further argue that the super-quantum correlation demonstrated by the nonlocal box is not physically comparable with the quantum one. The origin of the quantum structure of nature still remains to be explained, some post-quantum theory which is more complete in some sense than quantum mechanics is possible and might not necessarily be a hidden variable theory.

  3. Sandia National Laboratories: Uncertainty Analysis

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Experimental Testing Phenomenological Modeling Risk and Safety Assessment Cyber-Based Vulnerability Assessments Uncertainty Analysis Transportation Safety Fire Science Human...

  4. Calibration Under Uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Swiler, Laura Painton; Trucano, Timothy Guy

    2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report is a white paper summarizing the literature and different approaches to the problem of calibrating computer model parameters in the face of model uncertainty. Model calibration is often formulated as finding the parameters that minimize the squared difference between the model-computed data (the predicted data) and the actual experimental data. This approach does not allow for explicit treatment of uncertainty or error in the model itself: the model is considered the %22true%22 deterministic representation of reality. While this approach does have utility, it is far from an accurate mathematical treatment of the true model calibration problem in which both the computed data and experimental data have error bars. This year, we examined methods to perform calibration accounting for the error in both the computer model and the data, as well as improving our understanding of its meaning for model predictability. We call this approach Calibration under Uncertainty (CUU). This talk presents our current thinking on CUU. We outline some current approaches in the literature, and discuss the Bayesian approach to CUU in detail.

  5. Global Health Seminar Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Klein, Ophir

    Bay Area Global Health Seminar Series Monday, January 27, 2014 2:30pm 4:00pm (Reception to follow at the Center for Health Policy and the Woods Institute for the Environment. He studies how economic, political, and natural environments affect population health in developing countries using a mix of experimental

  6. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    First, it recovers historical oil price uncertainty seriesmore reliable historical oil price uncertainty series as itAs a result, the historical oil price uncertainty series is

  7. Electoral Competition, Political Uncertainty and Policy Insulation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Figueiredo, Rui J. P. Jr.

    2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainty and Policy Insulation Horn, Murray. 1995. TheUncertainty and Policy Insulation United States Congress.UNCERTAINTY AND POLICY INSULATION Rui J. P. de Figueiredo,

  8. UNFINISHED BUSINESS: The Economics of The Kyoto Protocol

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    JA Edmonds; CN MacCracken; RD Sands; SH Kim

    2000-07-06T23:59:59.000Z

    The Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) was completed on the morning of December 11, 1997, following over two years of negotiations. The product of these deliberations is a complex and incomplete document knitting together the diversity of interests and perspectives represented by the more than 150 delegations. Because the document is complex, its implications are not immediately obvious. If it enters into force, the Kyoto Protocol will have far-reaching implications for all nations--both nations with obligations under the Protocol and those without obligations. National energy systems, and the world's energy system, could be forever changed. In this paper the authors develop an assessment of the energy and economic implications of achieving the goals of the Kyoto Protocol. They find that many of the details of the Protocol that remain to be worked out introduce critical uncertainties affecting the cost of compliance. There are also a variety of uncertainties that further complicate the analysis. These include future non-CO{sub 2} greenhouse gas emissions and the cost of their mitigation. Other uncertainties include the resolution of negotiations to establish rules for determining and allocating land-use emissions rights, mechanisms for Annex 1 trading, and participation by non-Annex 1 members in the Clean Development Mechanism. In addition, there are economic uncertainties, such as the behavior of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union in supplying emissions credits under Annex 1 trading. These uncertainties in turn could affect private sector investments in anticipation of the Protocol's entrance into force. The longer the nature of future obligations remains unclear, the less able decision makers will be to incorporate these rules into their investment decisions. They find that the cost of implementing the Protocol in the US can vary by more than an order of magnitude. The marginal cost could be as low as $26 per tonne of carbon if a global system of emissions mitigation could be quickly and effectively implemented. But it could also exceed $250 per tonne of carbon if the US must meet its emissions limitations entirely through domestic actions, and if mitigation obligations are not adequately anticipated by decision-makers.

  9. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Poland's Economic Reform

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    permission. Poland's Economic Reform Foreign Affairs; Summer 1990; 69, 3; ABI/INFORM Global pg. 47 #12

  10. Environmental Processes, Social Perspectives and Economic Valuations of the Coast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Williams, Amy M.

    2011-10-21T23:59:59.000Z

    Coastal ecosystems provide important resources for social, economic and environmental capital to global and local communities. Socially, coastal ecosystems provide a place for people to recreate and get in touch with nature. Economically, tourism...

  11. Cost uncertainty for different levels of technology maturity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DeMuth, S.F. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Franklin, A.L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1996-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

    It is difficult at best to apply a single methodology for estimating cost uncertainties related to technologies of differing maturity. While highly mature technologies may have significant performance and manufacturing cost data available, less well developed technologies may be defined in only conceptual terms. Regardless of the degree of technical maturity, often a cost estimate relating to application of the technology may be required to justify continued funding for development. Yet, a cost estimate without its associated uncertainty lacks the information required to assess the economic risk. For this reason, it is important for the developer to provide some type of uncertainty along with a cost estimate. This study demonstrates how different methodologies for estimating uncertainties can be applied to cost estimates for technologies of different maturities. For a less well developed technology an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate can be based on a sensitivity analysis; whereas, an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate for a well developed technology can be based on an error propagation technique from classical statistics. It was decided to demonstrate these uncertainty estimation techniques with (1) an investigation of the additional cost of remediation due to beyond baseline, nearly complete, waste heel retrieval from underground storage tanks (USTs) at Hanford; and (2) the cost related to the use of crystalline silico-titanate (CST) rather than the baseline CS100 ion exchange resin for cesium separation from UST waste at Hanford.

  12. Extended Forward Sensitivity Analysis for Uncertainty Quantification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haihua Zhao; Vincent A. Mousseau

    2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Verification and validation (V&V) are playing more important roles to quantify uncertainties and realize high fidelity simulations in engineering system analyses, such as transients happened in a complex nuclear reactor system. Traditional V&V in the reactor system analysis focused more on the validation part or did not differentiate verification and validation. The traditional approach to uncertainty quantification is based on a 'black box' approach. The simulation tool is treated as an unknown signal generator, a distribution of inputs according to assumed probability density functions is sent in and the distribution of the outputs is measured and correlated back to the original input distribution. The 'black box' method mixes numerical errors with all other uncertainties. It is also not efficient to perform sensitivity analysis. Contrary to the 'black box' method, a more efficient sensitivity approach can take advantage of intimate knowledge of the simulation code. In these types of approaches equations for the propagation of uncertainty are constructed and the sensitivities are directly solved for as variables in the simulation. This paper presents the forward sensitivity analysis as a method to help uncertainty qualification. By including time step and potentially spatial step as special sensitivity parameters, the forward sensitivity method is extended as one method to quantify numerical errors. Note that by integrating local truncation errors over the whole system through the forward sensitivity analysis process, the generated time step and spatial step sensitivity information reflect global numerical errors. The discretization errors can be systematically compared against uncertainties due to other physical parameters. This extension makes the forward sensitivity method a much more powerful tool to help uncertainty qualification. By knowing the relative sensitivity of time and space steps with other interested physical parameters, the simulation is allowed to run at optimized time and space steps without affecting the confidence of the physical parameter sensitivity results. The time and space steps forward sensitivity analysis method can also replace the traditional time step and grid convergence study with much less computational cost. Several well defined benchmark problems with manufactured solutions are utilized to demonstrate the extended forward sensitivity analysis method. All the physical solutions, parameter sensitivity solutions, even the time step sensitivity in one case, have analytical forms, which allows the verification to be performed in the strictest sense.

  13. Sandia Energy - Uncertainty Analysis

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of ScienceandMesa del Sol Home DistributionTransportation Safety Home Stationary PowerUncertainty

  14. E000308 economic development and the environment Economic development in low-income economies is initially highly resource-

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coxhead, Ian

    E000308 economic development and the environment Economic development in low-income economies sources of emissions that contribute to global climate change. Economic development depends on sustained drawdowns, may affect economic development in a dynamic interaction. This feedback is hard to quantify

  15. Application of the probabilistic collocation method for an uncertainty analysis of a simple ocean model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort David.; Tatang, Menner A.; McRae, Gregory J.

    This paper presents the probabilistic collocation method as a computationally efficient method for performing uncertainty analysis on large complex models such as those used in global climate change research. The collocation ...

  16. Quantification of the impact of climate uncertainty on regional air quality

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liao, K.-J.

    Uncertainties in calculated impacts of climate forecasts on future regional air quality are investigated using downscaled MM5 meteorological fields from the NASA GISS and MIT IGSM global models and the CMAQ model in 2050 ...

  17. Coupled dynamics and economic analysis of floating wind turbine systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wayman, E. N. (Elizabeth N.)

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Against the backdrop of rising oil prices and increasing uncertainty in the future of energy and the health of the environment, wind energy is distinguished as a leading technology that is both technologically and economically ...

  18. Integrated Economic and Climate Projections for Impact Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paltsev, Sergey

    We designed scenarios for impact assessment that explicitly address policy choices and uncertainty in climate response. Economic projections and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions for the no climate policy scenario ...

  19. Third Annual Summer Workshop in International Economics and Finance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Snider, Barry B.

    Third Annual Summer Workshop in International Economics and Finance And Rosenberg Institute of Global Finance Sunday, July 13 2014 Alumni Common

  20. Uncertainty relation in Schwarzschild spacetime

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jun Feng; Yao-Zhong Zhang; Mark D. Gould; Heng Fan

    2015-02-27T23:59:59.000Z

    We explore the entropic uncertainty relation in the curved background outside a Schwarzschild black hole, and find that Hawking radiation introduces a nontrivial modification on the uncertainty bound for particular observer, therefore it could be witnessed by proper uncertainty game experimentally. We first investigate an uncertainty game between a free falling observer and his static partner holding a quantum memory initially entangled with the quantum system to be measured. Due to the information loss from Hawking decoherence, we find an inevitable increase of the uncertainty on the outcome of measurements in the view of static observer, which is dependent on the mass of the black hole, the distance of observer from event horizon, and the mode frequency of quantum memory. To illustrate the generality of this paradigm, we relate the entropic uncertainty bound with other uncertainty probe, e.g., time-energy uncertainty. In an alternative game between two static players, we show that quantum information of qubit can be transferred to quantum memory through a bath of fluctuating quantum fields outside the black hole. For a particular choice of initial state, we show that the Hawking decoherence cannot counteract entanglement generation after the dynamical evolution of system, which triggers an effectively reduced uncertainty bound that violates the intrinsic limit $-\\log_2c$. Numerically estimation for a proper choice of initial state shows that our result is comparable with possible real experiments. Finally, a discussion on the black hole firewall paradox in the context of entropic uncertainty relation is given.

  1. Economics of Defense in a Globalized World

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MCGUIRE, MARTIN C

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Kahn, H. (1959), On Thermonuclear War (Princeton Universityless grave than thermonuclear annihilation. That is, anfrom the threat of thermonuclear war deserves emphasis. Even

  2. A Global Assessment of Manufacturing: Economic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gutowski, Timothy

    subsectors that dominate energy use and carbon emissions: (a) iron and steel, (b) cement, (c) plastics, (d, but by combined and aggressive action, industry should be able to balance increases in demand with these technical options for further environmental improvements, materials efficiency, and demand reduction. 81 Annu

  3. Globalization Nationalized

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mazlish, Bruce

    Globalism and globalization have been seen as competitors to other allegiances, namely regionalism and nationalism. A look at recent efforts at reconceptualizing global history in China, Korea and the U.S., however, suggests ...

  4. FINANCIAL ECONOMICS RESOURCE ECONOMICS AND POLICY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thomas, Andrew

    ECONOMICS FINANCIAL ECONOMICS RESOURCE ECONOMICS AND POLICY Program of Study The School of Economics at the University of Maine provides excellent opportunities for graduate students to study applied economics, financial economics, and policy analysis. The School of Economics administers the Master

  5. Predicting System Performance with Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yan, B.; Malkawi, A.

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    on uncertainty in input values for predictions. The input values associated with predictions can come from estimations or measurements corrupted with noise. Therefore, it is more reasonable to assign probability distributions over their domains of plausible... increases, the number of simulations required increases significantly. The time cost limits the extension of uncertainty analysis. Current studies have not covered uncertainty related to system controls in operations. Measurements in system operations...

  6. Utility Maximization under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Jian

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Motivated by several search and optimization problems over uncertain datasets, we study the stochastic versions of a broad class of combinatorial problems where either the existences or the weights of the elements in the input dataset are uncertain. The class of problems that we study includes shortest paths, minimum weight spanning trees, and minimum weight matchings over probabilistic graphs; top-k queries over probabilistic datasets; and other combinatorial problems like knapsack. By noticing that the expected value is inadequate in capturing different types of risk-averse or risk-prone behaviors, we consider a more general objective which is to maximize the expected utility of the solution for some given utility function. For weight uncertainty model, we show that we can obtain a polynomial time approximation algorithm with additive error eps for any eps>0, if there is a pseudopolynomial time algorithm for the exact version of the problem. Our result generalizes several prior works on stochastic shortest ...

  7. Essays in Labor Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Harker Roa, Arturo

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Eco- nomicQuarterly Journal of Economics, August 1996, 111, 779-804. [Journal of Development Economics, 1996, 50, 297-312. [5

  8. ASIAN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS Winter 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carter, John

    and the Financial System Week 8 (02/27) Chapter 11 Globalization and the New Economy Week 9 (03/03) Chapter 13 economies to which the US economy is increasingly connected. The course will give students a flavor of political economy to examine Asia's economic development Prerequisites: ECON 271, ECON 272 or permission

  9. How incorporating more data reduces uncertainty in recovery predictions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Campozana, F.P.; Lake, L.W.; Sepehrnoori, K. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

    1997-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    From the discovery to the abandonment of a petroleum reservoir, there are many decisions that involve economic risks because of uncertainty in the production forecast. This uncertainty may be quantified by performing stochastic reservoir modeling (SRM); however, it is not practical to apply SRM every time the model is updated to account for new data. This paper suggests a novel procedure to estimate reservoir uncertainty (and its reduction) as a function of the amount and type of data used in the reservoir modeling. Two types of data are analyzed: conditioning data and well-test data. However, the same procedure can be applied to any other data type. Three performance parameters are suggested to quantify uncertainty. SRM is performed for the following typical stages: discovery, primary production, secondary production, and infill drilling. From those results, a set of curves is generated that can be used to estimate (1) the uncertainty for any other situation and (2) the uncertainty reduction caused by the introduction of new wells (with and without well-test data) into the description.

  10. What economics courses are there? Economics and International Development

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sussex, University of

    Economics Essentials What economics courses are there? BA Economics Economics and International Development Economics and International Relations Economics and Politics Philosophy, Politics and Economics (PPE) (p103) BSc Economics Economics and Management Studies Finance and Business (p46) Mathematics

  11. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for photovoltaic system modeling.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hansen, Clifford W.; Pohl, Andrew Phillip; Jordan, Dirk [National Center for Photovoltaics, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO] [National Center for Photovoltaics, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO

    2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling DC energy from photovoltaic systems. We consider two systems, each comprised of a single module using either crystalline silicon or CdTe cells, and located either at Albuquerque, NM, or Golden, CO. Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. Uncertainty in the output of each model is quantified by empirical distributions of each model's residuals. We sample these distributions to propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models to obtain an empirical distribution for each PV system's output. We considered models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane-of-array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance from plane-of-array irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; and (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power. We found that the uncertainty in PV system output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. Four alternative models were considered for the POA irradiance modeling step; we did not find the choice of one of these models to be of great significance. However, we observed that the POA irradiance model introduced a bias of upwards of 5% of daily energy which translates directly to a systematic difference in predicted energy. Sensitivity analyses relate uncertainty in the PV system output to uncertainty arising from each model. We found that the residuals arising from the POA irradiance and the effective irradiance models to be the dominant contributors to residuals for daily energy, for either technology or location considered. This analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output should focus on improvements to the POA and effective irradiance models.

  12. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, Jerry; Ruane, Alex; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, Peter; Rotter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, AJ; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, Robert; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Mueller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.O.; Olesen, JE; Osborne, T.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.

    2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments1,2. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change has been increasingly described in the literature3,4 while assessments of the uncertainty in crop responses to climate change are very rare. Systematic and objective comparisons across impact studies is difficult, and thus has not been fully realized5. Here we present the largest coordinated and standardized crop model intercomparison for climate change impacts on wheat production to date. We found that several individual crop models are able to reproduce measured grain yields under current diverse environments, particularly if sufficient details are provided to execute them. However, simulated climate change impacts can vary across models due to differences in model structures and algorithms. The crop-model component of uncertainty in climate change impact assessments was considerably larger than the climate-model component from Global Climate Models (GCMs). Model responses to high temperatures and temperature-by-CO2 interactions are identified as major sources of simulated impact uncertainties. Significant reductions in impact uncertainties through model improvements in these areas and improved quantification of uncertainty through multi-model ensembles are urgently needed for a more reliable translation of climate change scenarios into agricultural impacts in order to develop adaptation strategies and aid policymaking.

  13. Arousing geographic awareness by exposing students to local global connections

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benjamin, Jerry Lee

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    these industries are globally interconnected. A multimedia illustrated lecture and discussion focused on the global economic nterconnections of Mineral Wells, Texas, was presented to two groups of students. A pre and post presentation questionnaire measured changes...

  14. Friday, 1 March 13 Living with global uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bristol, University of

    19, Victoria J. Fabry 20, James Hansen 21, Brian Walker 1,22, Diana Liverman 23,24, Katherine Richardson 25, Paul Crutzen 26 and Jonathan Foley 27 Friday, 1 March 13 #12;Climate TO PROSPER Most Complex

  15. Energy and environmental policy and electric utilities' choice under uncertain global warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Takahashi, Masaki

    1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The paper reviews and discusses uncertainty about global warming science, impact on society. It also discusses what assumptions have been made and how appropriate the assumptions in scenarios have been for estimating global ...

  16. MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) Version 2: Model Description and Baseline Evaluation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sokolov, Andrei P.

    The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) is designed for analyzing the global environmental changes that may result from anthropogenic causes, quantifying the uncertainties associated with the projected changes, and ...

  17. Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2013-04-13T23:59:59.000Z

    This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

  18. Structural model uncertainty in stochastic simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McKay, M.D.; Morrison, J.D. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Technology and Safety Assessment Div.

    1997-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Prediction uncertainty in stochastic simulation models can be described by a hierarchy of components: stochastic variability at the lowest level, input and parameter uncertainty at a higher level, and structural model uncertainty at the top. It is argued that a usual paradigm for analysis of input uncertainty is not suitable for application to structural model uncertainty. An approach more likely to produce an acceptable methodology for analyzing structural model uncertainty is one that uses characteristics specific to the particular family of models.

  19. Uncertainty quantification for CO2 sequestration and enhanced oil recovery

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dai, Zhenxue; Fessenden-Rahn, Julianna; Middleton, Richard; Pan, Feng; Jia, Wei; Lee, Si-Yong; McPherson, Brian; Ampomah, William; Grigg, Reid

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study develops a statistical method to perform uncertainty quantification for understanding CO2 storage potential within an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) environment at the Farnsworth Unit of the Anadarko Basin in northern Texas. A set of geostatistical-based Monte Carlo simulations of CO2-oil-water flow and reactive transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for global sensitivity and statistical analysis of the major uncertainty metrics: net CO2 injection, cumulative oil production, cumulative gas (CH4) production, and net water injection. A global sensitivity and response surface analysis indicates that reservoir permeability, porosity, and thickness are the major intrinsic reservoir parameters that control net CO2 injection/storage and oil/gas recovery rates. The well spacing and the initial water saturation also have large impact on the oil/gas recovery rates. Further, this study has revealed key insights into the potential behavior and the operational parameters of CO2 sequestration at CO2-EOR s...

  20. Uncertainty, investment, and industry evolution

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Caballero, Ricardo J.

    1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We study the effects of aggregate and idiosyncratic uncertainty on the entry of firms, total investment, and prices in a competitive industry with irreversible investment. We first use standard dynamic programming methods ...

  1. Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Saphores, Jean-Daniel M

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Consider a valuable renewable resource whose biomass X2003. Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty,Harvesting a Renewable Resource under Uncertainty 1 (with

  2. Reducing Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About Light-Duty Diesel Reducing Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About Light-Duty Diesel 2002 DEER Conference...

  3. PROBABILISTIC SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS WORKSHOP SUMMARY REPORT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seitz, R

    2008-06-25T23:59:59.000Z

    Stochastic or probabilistic modeling approaches are being applied more frequently in the United States and globally to quantify uncertainty and enhance understanding of model response in performance assessments for disposal of radioactive waste. This increased use has resulted in global interest in sharing results of research and applied studies that have been completed to date. This technical report reflects the results of a workshop that was held to share results of research and applied work related to performance assessments conducted at United States Department of Energy sites. Key findings of this research and applied work are discussed and recommendations for future activities are provided.

  4. WARWICK ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT WARWICK ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Davies, Christopher

    WARWICK ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT twenty thirteen- fourteen Prospectus #12;WARWICK ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT-being worldwide." "Economics is the issue of the times in which we live." Contents ninety-four The percent Inspirational instruction 11 Highlighted Research 13 Behavioural Economics 14 Development 16 Economic History 18

  5. Discussion Papers in Economics Department of Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doran, Simon J.

    Discussion Papers in Economics Department of Economics University of Surrey Guildford Surrey GU2 7 participants at Aberdeen, Essex, LSE, UCL, the Paris School of Economics and from participants in the 2007 Royal Economic Society annual conference held in Warwick, the 2007 American Law and Economics

  6. Global Energy: Supply, Demand, Consequences, Opportunities

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Arun Majumdar

    2010-01-08T23:59:59.000Z

    July 29, 2008 Berkeley Lab lecture: Arun Majumdar, Director of the Environmental Energy Technologies Division, discusses current and future projections of economic growth, population, and global energy demand and supply, and explores the implications of these trends for the environment.

  7. Evolving a global armaments logistics strategy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peck, Nathan (Nathan W.)

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Few companies globally source and manage commercial transportation for frequent and high volumes of explosive cargo for the U. S. Department of Defense. U.S. regulations are strict and economically competitive options are ...

  8. Needed : a realistic strategy for global warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Schmalensee, Richard.

    Through a brief look at the science and economics of climate, the authors show that if climate change turns out to be a serious threat, an effective response will require a substantial and very long-term global effort. ...

  9. Economic analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    1980-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

  10. Essays in Development Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bazzi, Samuel Ali

    are weak, Review of Economics and Statistics, 2004, 86,Essays in Development Economics A dissertation submitted indegree Doctor of Philosophy in Economics by Samuel Ali Bazzi

  11. Essays in Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Romem, Israel Hadas

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Science and Urban Economics 41 (1), 67 76. Anenberg, E. (Dynamics. Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-48.University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations

  12. Essays in Regulatory Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guerrero, Santiago

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 58(2) (Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (2009), inevidence. Eastern Economics Journal, 23 (3) (1997), 253-

  13. Essays in Applied Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Crost, Benjamin

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A. D. 2008, Review of Economics and Statistics, 90, 191J. 2008, Journal of Health Economics, 27, 218 Blattman, C. &Ilmakunnas, P. 2009, Health Economics, 18, 161 Caliendo,

  14. Essays in behavioral economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eil, David Holding

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Essays in Behavioral Economics A dissertation submitted inDoctor of Philosophy in Economics by David Holding Eilfunction, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1995,

  15. Essays in Labor Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Freeman, Donald Eric

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    staff at IRLE and the Economics Depart- ment, especiallyof New Employees, Review of Economics and Statistics, 1985,Firm Level, Journal of Labor Economics, 1993, 11, 442470.

  16. Essays in Labor Economics and Development Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yakovlev, Evgeny

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Russian Style." Journal of Public Economics 76(3):337-368Examples), RAND Journal of Economics, Summer. Bertrand,Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(1):249-275. Bhattacharya,

  17. Economic Incentives of Providing Network Security Services Journal of Information Technology Management 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sadeh, Norman M.

    Economic Incentives of Providing Network Security Services Journal of Information Technology Management 1 THE ECONOMIC INCENTIVES OF PROVIDING NETWORK SECURITY SERVICES ON THE INTERNET INFRASTRUCTURE Li in the economic incentives inherent in providing the defenses as well as uncertainty in current defenses. We

  18. Climate Extremes, Uncertainty and Impacts Climate Change Challenge: The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Climate Extremes, Uncertainty and Impacts Climate Change Challenge: The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, AR4) has resulted in a wider acceptance of global climate change climate extremes and change impacts. Uncertainties in process studies, climate models, and associated

  19. Biofuel Economics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Klein-Marcuschamer, Daniel; Holmes, Brad; Simmons, Blake; Blanch, Harvey

    2011-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

    As concerns regarding increasing energy prices, global warming and renewable resources continue to grow, so has scientific discovery into agricultural biomass conversion. Plant Biomass Conversion addresses both the development of plant biomass and conversion technology, in addition to issues surrounding biomass conversion, such as the affect on water resources and soil sustainability. This book also offers a brief overview of the current status of the industry and examples of production plants being used in current biomass conversion efforts.

  20. RUMINATIONS ON NDA MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY COMPARED TO DA UNCERTAINTY

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

    2010-06-17T23:59:59.000Z

    It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

  1. The Trend of Global Capitalism Qiudong Wang

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Quidong

    , including Russia and east Europe countries, India, China, Mexico, South America and Africa, are relative the history, the present and the future trend of politic and economic relationship between developed and under strategic initiatives in the on-going global politic and economic game. The most serious threat

  2. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    historical uncertainty series by incorporating a realized volatility series from daily oil price data

  3. Economic Development

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOnItem NotEnergy,ARMFormsGasRelease Date:research community -- hostedEconomic Development

  4. ECONOMIC DISPATCH

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742Energy China U.S.ContaminationJulySavannah River Site for Use by theDelivery,ECONOMIC DISPATCH OF

  5. Essays in Development Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Keats, Anthony

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of EconomicJournal of Development Economics 87(1): 57-75. [21] Ozier,Journal of Development Economics 94, 151-163. [9] Delavande,

  6. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.

    1993-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project staff are developing mathematical models to be used to estimate the radiation dose that individuals may have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. An uncertainty and sensitivity analyses plan is essential to understand and interpret the predictions from these mathematical models. This is especially true in the case of the HEDR models where the values of many parameters are unknown. This plan gives a thorough documentation of the uncertainty and hierarchical sensitivity analysis methods recommended for use on all HEDR mathematical models. The documentation includes both technical definitions and examples. In addition, an extensive demonstration of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis process is provided using actual results from the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC). This demonstration shows how the approaches used in the recommended plan can be adapted for all dose predictions in the HEDR Project.

  7. WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2009 BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH College of Business and Economics West Virginia University #12;West Virginia Economic Outlook 2009 George W. Hammond, Associate Director, BBER, and Associate Professor of Economics West Virginia Economic Outlook 2009 is published

  8. Economics & Finance Degree options

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brierley, Andrew

    98 Economics & Finance Degree options MA or BSc (Single Honours Degrees) Applied Economics Economics Financial Economics BA (International Honours Degree) Economics (See page 51) MA or BSc (Joint Honours Degrees) Economics and one of: Geography Management Mathematics MA (Joint Honours Degrees

  9. Uncertainty Estimate for the Outdoor Calibration of Solar Pyranometers: A Metrologist Perspective

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reda, I.; Myers, D.; Stoffel, T.

    2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Pyranometers are used outdoors to measure solar irradiance. By design, this type of radiometer can measure the; total hemispheric (global) or diffuse (sky) irradiance when the detector is unshaded or shaded from the sun disk, respectively. These measurements are used in a variety of applications including solar energy conversion, atmospheric studies, agriculture, and materials science. Proper calibration of pyranometers is essential to ensure measurement quality. This paper describes a step-by-step method for calculating and reporting the uncertainty of the calibration, using the guidelines of the ISO 'Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement' or GUM, that is applied to the pyranometer; calibration procedures used at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The NREL technique; characterizes a responsivity function of a pyranometer as a function of the zenith angle, as well as reporting a single; calibration responsivity value for a zenith angle of 45 ..deg... The uncertainty analysis shows that a lower uncertainty can be achieved by using the response function of a pyranometer determined as a function of zenith angle, in lieu of just using; the average value at 45..deg... By presenting the contribution of each uncertainty source to the total uncertainty; users will be able to troubleshoot and improve their calibration process. The uncertainty analysis method can also be used to determine the uncertainty of different calibration techniques and applications, such as deriving the uncertainty of field measurements.

  10. Economic Growth and Development Economics 777

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Almor, Amit

    Economic Growth and Development Economics 777 July 18, 2008 Fall Semester 2008 Professor J. H. Mc of economic growth and development. We will analyze several different growth models and look at some recent empirical research. Text The text for this course is: Economic Growth (2nd Edition) by Robert J. Barro

  11. Essays on monetary economics and financial economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Sok Won

    2009-06-02T23:59:59.000Z

    ESSAYS ON MONETARY ECONOMICS AND FINANCIAL ECONOMICS A Dissertation by SOK WON KIM Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR... OF PHILOSOPHY August 2006 Major Subject: Economics ESSAYS ON MONETARY ECONOMICS AND FINANCIAL ECONOMICS A Dissertation by SOK WON KIM Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University...

  12. 4, 507532, 2004 Emission uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    and Physics Discussions Impact of different emission inventories on simulated tropospheric ozone over China The importance of emission inventory uncertainty on the simulation of summertime tro- pospheric Ozone over China has been analyzed using a regional chemical transport model. Three independent emissions inventories

  13. Impact of orifice metering uncertainties

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stuart, J.W. (Pacific Gas and Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (USA))

    1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In a recent utility study, attributed 38% of its unaccounted-for UAF gas to orifice metering uncertainty biasing caused by straightening vanes. How this was determined and how this applied to the company's orifice meters is described. Almost all (97%) of the company's UAF gas was found to be attributed to identifiable accounting procedures, measurement problems, theft and leakage.

  14. Uncertainty quantification and error analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Higdon, Dave M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson, Mark C [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Habib, Salman [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Klein, Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Berliner, Mark [OHIO STATE UNIV.; Covey, Curt [LLNL; Ghattas, Omar [UNIV OF TEXAS; Graziani, Carlo [UNIV OF CHICAGO; Seager, Mark [LLNL; Sefcik, Joseph [LLNL; Stark, Philip [UC/BERKELEY; Stewart, James [SNL

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    UQ studies all sources of error and uncertainty, including: systematic and stochastic measurement error; ignorance; limitations of theoretical models; limitations of numerical representations of those models; limitations on the accuracy and reliability of computations, approximations, and algorithms; and human error. A more precise definition for UQ is suggested below.

  15. Yes, your ideas and our technologies can contribute to economic, social and environmental progress. Alstom is a global leader in the world of power generation and rail infrastructure and sets the benchmark for innovative and environmentally

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . Alstom is a global leader in the world of power generation and rail infrastructure and sets the benchmark capacity automated metros in the world, and provides integrated power plant solutions and associated services for a wide variety of energy sources, including wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, ocean (wave), gas

  16. The MIT EPPA6 Model: Economic Growth, Energy Use, and Food Consumption

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Y.-H.H.

    The MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model has been broadly applied on energy and climate policy analyses. In this paper, we provide an updated version of the model based on the most recent global economic ...

  17. Draft only. This version: July 2011 GPE-VN: A general equilibrium model for the study of globalization,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coxhead, Ian

    of economies with global markets, for growth, economic welfare, income distribution and the environment, but the implications of integration with the global economy for income distribution, poverty change of globalization, poverty and the environment in Vietnam1 Ian Coxhead, University

  18. The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schlenker, Wolfram; Hanemann, W. Michael; Fisher, Anthony C.

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Really Bene?t From Global Warming? Accounting for IrrigationR. , The Economics of Global Warming, Washington, D.C. :1992. , The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture:

  19. Experimental uncertainty estimation and statistics for data having interval uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kreinovich, Vladik (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Oberkampf, William Louis (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Ginzburg, Lev (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Ferson, Scott (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Hajagos, Janos (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York)

    2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report addresses the characterization of measurements that include epistemic uncertainties in the form of intervals. It reviews the application of basic descriptive statistics to data sets which contain intervals rather than exclusively point estimates. It describes algorithms to compute various means, the median and other percentiles, variance, interquartile range, moments, confidence limits, and other important statistics and summarizes the computability of these statistics as a function of sample size and characteristics of the intervals in the data (degree of overlap, size and regularity of widths, etc.). It also reviews the prospects for analyzing such data sets with the methods of inferential statistics such as outlier detection and regressions. The report explores the tradeoff between measurement precision and sample size in statistical results that are sensitive to both. It also argues that an approach based on interval statistics could be a reasonable alternative to current standard methods for evaluating, expressing and propagating measurement uncertainties.

  20. Regional, economic, and environmental effects of traditional and biotechnologically enhanced ethanol production processes in Brazil

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guerrero Compen, Roberto

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Climate change, food security, and energy efficiency have become universal challenges for global economic development and environmental conservation that demand in-depth multidisciplinary research. Biofuels have emerged ...

  1. Regional, Economic, and Environmental Implications of Dual Ethanol Technologies in Brazil

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guerrero Compean, Roberto

    Climate change, food security, and energy efficiency have become universal challenges for global economic development and environmental conservation that demand in-depth multidisciplinary research. Biofuels have emerged ...

  2. Proposal for the utilization of the total cross section covariances and its correlations with channel reactions for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sabouri, P.; Bidaud, A. [Labratoire de Physique Subatomique et de Cosmologie, CNRS-IN2P3/UJF/INPG, Grenoble (France); Dabiran, S.; Buijs, A. [Dept. of Engineering Physics, McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada)

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    An alternate method for the estimation of the global uncertainty on criticality, using the total cross section and its covariances, is proposed. Application of the method with currently available covariance data leads to an unrealistically large prediction of the global uncertainty on criticality. New covariances for total cross section and individual reactions are proposed. Analysis with the proposed covariance matrices is found to result in a global uncertainty for criticality consistent with the traditional method. Recommendations are made to evaluators for providing total cross section covariances. (authors)

  3. Global Political Economy Wednesdays 5:30-8:10 PM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lin, Xiaodong

    Global Political Economy Fall 2014 Wednesdays 5:30-8:10 PM Location: 1 Washington Park, 508 Ajai of MNCs in the global economy. The role of economic, social and political institutions is also a central: Wednesdays, 3-5 PM. Course Outline This course offers a global perspective on long term change in the world

  4. Global Political Economy Wednesdays 5:30-8:10 PM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lin, Xiaodong

    Global Political Economy Fall 2013 Wednesdays 5:30-8:10 PM Location: ENG (Engelhard Hall) 213 Ajai of MNCs in the global economy. The role of economic, social and political institutions is also a central: Wednesdays, 3-5 PM. Course Outline This course offers a global perspective on long term change in the world

  5. Globalization, Power and Survival: an Anthropological Perspective Marc Abls

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Globalization, Power and Survival: an Anthropological Perspective Marc Abls Ecole des Hautes the economic aspect of globalization and it is true that globalization corresponds to a displacement from a primarily industry-based economy to one where working on concepts plays a major role and where trade growth

  6. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    xi Chapter 1 The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on theLIST OF FIGURES Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Oil priceOil price uncertainty with and without realized

  7. Quantifying uncertainty from material inhomogeneity.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Battaile, Corbett Chandler; Emery, John M.; Brewer, Luke N.; Boyce, Brad Lee

    2009-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Most engineering materials are inherently inhomogeneous in their processing, internal structure, properties, and performance. Their properties are therefore statistical rather than deterministic. These inhomogeneities manifest across multiple length and time scales, leading to variabilities, i.e. statistical distributions, that are necessary to accurately describe each stage in the process-structure-properties hierarchy, and are ultimately the primary source of uncertainty in performance of the material and component. When localized events are responsible for component failure, or when component dimensions are on the order of microstructural features, this uncertainty is particularly important. For ultra-high reliability applications, the uncertainty is compounded by a lack of data describing the extremely rare events. Hands-on testing alone cannot supply sufficient data for this purpose. To date, there is no robust or coherent method to quantify this uncertainty so that it can be used in a predictive manner at the component length scale. The research presented in this report begins to address this lack of capability through a systematic study of the effects of microstructure on the strain concentration at a hole. To achieve the strain concentration, small circular holes (approximately 100 {micro}m in diameter) were machined into brass tensile specimens using a femto-second laser. The brass was annealed at 450 C, 600 C, and 800 C to produce three hole-to-grain size ratios of approximately 7, 1, and 1/7. Electron backscatter diffraction experiments were used to guide the construction of digital microstructures for finite element simulations of uniaxial tension. Digital image correlation experiments were used to qualitatively validate the numerical simulations. The simulations were performed iteratively to generate statistics describing the distribution of plastic strain at the hole in varying microstructural environments. In both the experiments and simulations, the deformation behavior was found to depend strongly on the character of the nearby microstructure.

  8. Quantum mechanical time contradicts the uncertainty principle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hitoshi Kitada

    1999-11-17T23:59:59.000Z

    The a priori time in conventional quantum mechanics is shown to contradict the uncertainty principle. A possible solution is given.

  9. Theoretical Uncertainties in Inflationary Predictions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    William H. Kinney; Antonio Riotto

    2006-03-09T23:59:59.000Z

    With present and future observations becoming of higher and higher quality, it is timely and necessary to investigate the most significant theoretical uncertainties in the predictions of inflation. We show that our ignorance of the entire history of the Universe, including the physics of reheating after inflation, translates to considerable errors in observationally relevant parameters. Using the inflationary flow formalism, we estimate that for a spectral index $n$ and tensor/scalar ratio $r$ in the region favored by current observational constraints, the theoretical errors are of order $\\Delta n / | n - 1| \\sim 0.1 - 1$ and $\\Delta r /r \\sim 0.1 - 1$. These errors represent the dominant theoretical uncertainties in the predictions of inflation, and are generically of the order of or larger than the projected uncertainties in future precision measurements of the Cosmic Microwave Background. We also show that the lowest-order classification of models into small field, large field, and hybrid breaks down when higher order corrections to the dynamics are included. Models can flow from one region to another.

  10. assessing economic social: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    from among the statically stable networks and c... Matthew O. Jackson; Alison Watts 1999-01-01 48 Department of Economic and Social Affairs CiteSeer Summary: global policies in...

  11. Essays in Energy Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Spurlock, Cecily Anna

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of work, Journal of Labor Economics, pp. 209236. Chen, X.Regional science and urban economics, 12(3), 313324.2009): Psychology and economics: Evidence from the field,

  12. Essays in Team Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tumlinson, Justin

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    3] Becker, G. , The Economics of Discrimination. UniversityEngland and Wales. Labour Economics, 7 (2000): 603-28. [5]The Bell Journal of Economics, 13 (1982): [11] Judge, T.

  13. Essays in Public Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Insook

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Evasion and Labour Supply" Economics Let- ters, 3(1): 53-among Siblings" Review of Economics and Statistics, 86 (2):Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87 (4): 608-626. [22

  14. Essays on health economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shafrin, Jason T.

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Quarterly Journal of Economics Davidson SM, Manheim LM,The Quarterly Journal of Economics 84(3): 488-500. Atella V,data. Journal of Health Economics 27(3): 770-785. Averett S

  15. Essays in Development Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hicks, Joan Hamory

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Handbook of Development Economics, Volume I (pp. 713-762).Journal of Development Economics, 81, 80-96. Behrman, JereJournal of Development Economics, 79, 349-373. Dercon,

  16. Essays in Public Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liscow, Zachary

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    a Battleground. Defense Economics, 2: 219-233. Bailey, TA,Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112: 1057-1090. Coakley, J.Goldin, C. 1973. The Economics of Emancipation. Journal

  17. Essays in Applied Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rider, Jessica Kristin

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 41(1):82, [8]hard times. Journal of Health Economics, [31] C.J. Ruhm. AreJournal of Agricultural Economics, 87(5):1159 [2] J.K.

  18. Essays in labor economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chou, Tiffany

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Journal of Population Economics , 15(4), 667-682. Akerlof,A. & Rachel E. Kranton. (2000). Economics and Identity.Quarterly Journal of Economics , 115(3), 715-753. Albanesi,

  19. Essays in monetary economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ghent, Andra C.

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    rium. Journal of Urban Economics 9, 332-348. Whelan, K. ,Framework. Journal of Monetary Economics 12, 383-398. Chari,Journal of Monetary Economics 46, 281-313. Fernald, J. ,

  20. Essays in Public Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wingender, Philippe

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4), 1329-1368.eds. , Handbook of Labor Economics, Vol.3. Bound, J. ,Journal of Labor Economics, 19(1), 22-64. Chen, X. and

  1. Essays in Financial Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sohn, Sung Bin

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Journal of Financial Economics, 67, 149 Asquith, P. and D.Journal of Financial Economics, 15, 6189. Back, K. and J.The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113, 869902. Blanchard,

  2. Essays in Environmental Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gallagher, Justin

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    sites. RAND Journal of Economics, 27(3), 1996. [57] Robertequations. Journal of Urban Economics, 10(1), July 1981. [Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1), February 2001. [16

  3. Essays in Environmental Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Foreman, Kathleen

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Regional Sci- ence and Urban Economics, 22(1):103121, MarchBridge. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 14(2):pp.Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 5(1):66 88,

  4. Essays on International Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cravino, Javier Pablo

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Journal of International Economics, Vol. 65, 37599. [33]Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 51, No. 1, pp. 132. [Trade, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 54, No. 6, pp.

  5. Essays in Financial Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shabani, Reza

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Journal of Financial Economics 92:6691. [7] Chen, J. , H.G.Journal of Financial Economics 66:171205. [8] Harrison,Journal of Financial Economics 66:207239. [15] Keown,

  6. Entropic uncertainty relations for multiple measurements

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shang Liu; Liang-Zhu Mu; Heng Fan

    2014-11-23T23:59:59.000Z

    We present the entropic uncertainty relations for multiple measurement settings in quantum mechanics. Those uncertainty relations are obtained for both cases with and without the presence of quantum memory. They take concise forms which can be proven in a unified method and easy to calculate. Our results recover the well known entropic uncertainty relations for two observables, which show the uncertainties about the outcomes of two incompatible measurements. Those uncertainty relations are applicable in both foundations of quantum theory and the security of many quantum cryptographic protocols.

  7. PDF uncertainties at large x and gauge boson production

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Accardi, Alberto [Hampton U., JLAB

    2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    I discuss how global QCD fits of parton distribution functions can make the somewhat separated fields of high-energy particle physics and lower energy hadronic and nuclear physics interact to the benefit of both. In particular, I will argue that large rapidity gauge boson production at the Tevatron and the LHC has the highest short-term potential to constrain the theoretical nuclear corrections to DIS data on deuteron targets necessary for up/down flavor separation. This in turn can considerably reduce the PDF uncertainty on cross section calculations of heavy mass particles such as W' and Z' bosons.

  8. Quantification of Uncertainties in Nuclear Density Functional theory

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    N. Schunck; J. D. McDonnell; D. Higdon; J. Sarich; S. Wild

    2014-09-17T23:59:59.000Z

    Reliable predictions of nuclear properties are needed as much to answer fundamental science questions as in applications such as reactor physics or data evaluation. Nuclear density functional theory is currently the only microscopic, global approach to nuclear structure that is applicable throughout the nuclear chart. In the past few years, a lot of effort has been devoted to setting up a general methodology to assess theoretical uncertainties in nuclear DFT calculations. In this paper, we summarize some of the recent progress in this direction. Most of the new material discussed here will be be published in separate articles.

  9. Uncertainties in Estimating Moisture Fluxes over the Intra-Americas Sea ALBERTO M. MESTAS-NUEZ

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    by these uncertainties. Therefore, NCEP NCAR reanalysis, with its global coverage and long-term record, can be used-third of all the summer moisture that enters the continental United States is transported by the GPLLJ (Helfand United States. Future re- search aimed at understanding summer precipitation must therefore deal

  10. Quantifying uncertainties of cloud microphysical property retrievals with a perturbation method

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ohta, Shigemi

    to their modification effects on global radiation balance and atmospheric water cycle. However, representation of clouds Radiation Measurement (ARM) facility, whose primary goal is to carry out long-term observations of cloudsQuantifying uncertainties of cloud microphysical property retrievals with a perturbation method

  11. Economics Department Mission Statement

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jiang, Huiqiang

    Economics Department Mission Statement The mission of the Economics Department at the University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown is to develop the ability of our students to understand economic concepts, and in public policy. The central goals of an education in economics are to acquire: -- an understanding of how

  12. University of Massachusetts Amherst Department of Resource Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schweik, Charles M.

    University of Massachusetts Amherst Department of Resource Economics Working Paper No. 2006-1 http://www.umass.edu/resec/workingpapers Price-Based vs. Quantity-Based Environmental Regulation under Knightian Uncertainty: An Info-Gap Robust functions determine whether a price-based or quantity-based environmental regulation leads to higher

  13. Creating ladders out of chains : China's technological development in a world of global production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuller, Douglas Brian

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    With the advent of economic globalization, the terms of debate over the political and social conditions necessary to foster development in the Global South have shifted. Examining technological development, one important ...

  14. 1 Economics The study of economics investigates the consequences of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vertes, Akos

    1 Economics ECONOMICS The study of economics investigates the consequences of scarcity, which forces people, organizations and governments to choose among competing objectives. Economics looks, unemployment, inflation, economic growth and the use and distribution of resources within and across nations

  15. University of Wisconsin-Madison Department of Agricultural & Applied Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Radeloff, Volker C.

    support for this work was provided by the Center for World Affairs and the Global Economy (WAGE section I very briefly describe the "globalization" of the world economy and what it does and does August 2010 Economic Impact of Foreign Exports on the Wisconsin Economy By Steven Deller

  16. Exploiting simultaneous observational constraints on mass and absorption to estimate the global direct radiative forcing of black carbon and brown carbon

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schwarz, J. P.

    Atmospheric black carbon (BC) is a leading climate warming agent, yet uncertainties on the global direct radiative forcing (DRF) remain large. Here we expand a global model simulation (GEOS-Chem) of BC to include the ...

  17. On Uncertainty Quantification of Lithium-ion Batteries

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hadigol, Mohammad; Doostan, Alireza

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this work, a stochastic, physics-based model for Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) is presented in order to study the effects of model uncertainties on the cell capacity, voltage, and concentrations. To this end, the proposed uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach, based on sparse polynomial chaos expansions, relies on a small number of battery simulations. Within this UQ framework, the identification of most important uncertainty sources is achieved by performing a global sensitivity analysis via computing the so-called Sobol' indices. Such information aids in designing more efficient and targeted quality control procedures, which consequently may result in reducing the LIB production cost. An LiC$_6$/LiCoO$_2$ cell with 19 uncertain parameters discharged at 0.25C, 1C and 4C rates is considered to study the performance and accuracy of the proposed UQ approach. The results suggest that, for the considered cell, the battery discharge rate is a key factor affecting not only the performance variability of the ce...

  18. Contextual Risk and Its Relevance in Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Diederik Aerts; Sandro Sozzo

    2011-05-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainty in economics still poses some fundamental problems illustrated, e.g., by the Allais and Ellsberg paradoxes. To overcome these difficulties, economists have introduced an interesting distinction between 'risk' and 'ambiguity' depending on the existence of a (classical Kolmogorovian) probabilistic structure modeling these uncertainty situations. On the other hand, evidence of everyday life suggests that 'context' plays a fundamental role in human decisions under uncertainty. Moreover, it is well known from physics that any probabilistic structure modeling contextual interactions between entities structurally needs a non-Kolmogorovian quantum-like framework. In this paper we introduce the notion of 'contextual risk' with the aim of modeling a substantial part of the situations in which usually only 'ambiguity' is present. More precisely, we firstly introduce the essentials of an operational formalism called 'the hidden measurement approach' in which probability is introduced as a consequence of fluctuations in the interaction between entities and contexts. Within the hidden measurement approach we propose a 'sphere model' as a mathematical tool for situations in which contextual risk occurs. We show that a probabilistic model of this kind is necessarily non-Kolmogorovian, hence it requires either the formalism of quantum mechanics or a generalization of it. This insight is relevant, for it explains the presence of quantum or, better, quantum-like, structures in economics, as suggested by some authors, and can serve to solve the aforementioned paradoxes.

  19. Global Health Research | 2 Global Health Research

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rambaut, Andrew

    Global Health Research | 2 Global Health Research Supporting researchers in low- and middle-income countries to carry out health- related research within their own countries. Gl bal Health #12;3 | Global Health Research #12;Global Health Research | 4 We are a global charitable foundation dedicated

  20. Global warming, insurance losses and financial industry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Low, N.C. [UOB Life Assurance Limited, Singapore (Singapore)

    1996-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Global warming causes extremely bad weather in the near term. They have already caught the attention of the insurance industry, as they suffered massive losses in the last decade. Twenty-one out of the 25 largest catastrophes in the US, mainly in the form of hurricanes have occurred in the last decade. The insurance industry has reacted by taking the risk of global warming in decisions as to pricing and underwriting decisions. But they have yet to take a more active role in regulating the factors that contributes to global warming. How global warming can impact the financial industry and the modern economy is explored. Insurance and modern financial derivatives are key to the efficient functioning of the modern economy, without which the global economy can still function but will take a giant step backward. Any risk as global warming that causes economic surprises will hamper the efficient working of the financial market and the modern economy.

  1. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  2. NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts · West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts · eNerGy · Healt Global Insight, paid for by the West Virginia Department of Revenue. 2013 WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOKWest Virginia Economic Outlook 2013 is published by: Bureau of Business & Economic Research West

  3. Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Sensor Calibration...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Sensor Calibration Monitoring in Nuclear Power Plants Re-direct Destination: This report describes research towards the development of...

  4. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    peak, and finds that this nonlinear transformation of the oiland oil price growth rates. As seen in the above illustration, uncertainty is at its peak

  5. High-level waste qualification: Managing uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pulsipher, B.A. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Qualification of high-level waste implies specifications driven by risk against which performance can be assessed. The inherent uncertainties should be addressed in the specifications and statistical methods should be employed to appropriately manage these uncertainties. Uncertainties exist whenever measurements are obtained, sampling is employed, or processes are affected by systematic or random perturbations. This paper presents the approach and statistical methods currently employed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) and West Valley Nuclear Services (WVNS) to characterize, minimize, and control uncertainties pertinent to a waste-form acceptance specification concerned with product consistency.

  6. Understanding Global Capitalism

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robinson, William I.

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    sociology; globalization; political economy; development;economy fueled through 700 billion dollars injected into globalizationGlobalization Studies, also called CGS. I would economy and

  7. Climate dynamics and fluid mechanics: Natural variability and related uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Michael Ghil; Mickal D. Chekroun; Eric Simonnet

    2010-06-15T23:59:59.000Z

    The purpose of this review-and-research paper is twofold: (i) to review the role played in climate dynamics by fluid-dynamical models; and (ii) to contribute to the understanding and reduction of the uncertainties in future climate-change projections. To illustrate the first point, we focus on the large-scale, wind-driven flow of the mid-latitude oceans which contribute in a crucial way to Earth's climate, and to changes therein. We study the low-frequency variability (LFV) of the wind-driven, double-gyre circulation in mid-latitude ocean basins, via the bifurcation sequence that leads from steady states through periodic solutions and on to the chaotic, irregular flows documented in the observations. This sequence involves local, pitchfork and Hopf bifurcations, as well as global, homoclinic ones. The natural climate variability induced by the LFV of the ocean circulation is but one of the causes of uncertainties in climate projections. Another major cause of such uncertainties could reside in the structural instability in the topological sense, of the equations governing climate dynamics, including but not restricted to those of atmospheric and ocean dynamics. We propose a novel approach to understand, and possibly reduce, these uncertainties, based on the concepts and methods of random dynamical systems theory. As a very first step, we study the effect of noise on the topological classes of the Arnol'd family of circle maps, a paradigmatic model of frequency locking as occurring in the nonlinear interactions between the El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and the seasonal cycle. It is shown that the maps' fine-grained resonant landscape is smoothed by the noise, thus permitting their coarse-grained classification. This result is consistent with stabilizing effects of stochastic parametrization obtained in modeling of ENSO phenomenon via some general circulation models.

  8. Global Energy: Supply, Demand, Consequences, Opportunities (LBNL Summer Lecture Series)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Majumdar, Arun

    2008-07-29T23:59:59.000Z

    Summer Lecture Series 2009: Arun Majumdar, Director of the Environmental Energy Technologies Division, discusses current and future projections of economic growth, population, and global energy demand and supply, and explores the implications of these trends for the environment.

  9. Securing the Sustainability of Global Medical Nuclear Supply Chains

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Securing the Sustainability of Global Medical Nuclear Supply Chains Through Economic Cost Recovery University of Massachusetts Amherst Securing the Sustainability of Medical Nuclear Supply Chains #12 of Massachusetts Amherst Securing the Sustainability of Medical Nuclear Supply Chains #12;This presentation

  10. Global Energy: Supply, Demand, Consequences, Opportunities (LBNL Summer Lecture Series)

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Majumdar, Arun

    2011-04-28T23:59:59.000Z

    Summer Lecture Series 2009: Arun Majumdar, Director of the Environmental Energy Technologies Division, discusses current and future projections of economic growth, population, and global energy demand and supply, and explores the implications of these trends for the environment.

  11. A High-Performance Embedded Hybrid Methodology for Uncertainty Quantification With Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iaccarino, Gianluca

    2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Multiphysics processes modeled by a system of unsteady di#11;erential equations are natu- rally suited for partitioned (modular) solution strategies. We consider such a model where probabilistic uncertainties are present in each module of the system and represented as a set of random input parameters. A straightforward approach in quantifying uncertainties in the predicted solution would be to sample all the input parameters into a single set, and treat the full system as a black-box. Although this method is easily parallelizable and requires minimal modi#12;cations to deterministic solver, it is blind to the modular structure of the underlying multiphysical model. On the other hand, using spectral representations polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) can provide richer structural information regarding the dynamics of these uncertainties as they propagate from the inputs to the predicted output, but can be prohibitively expensive to implement in the high-dimensional global space of un- certain parameters. Therefore, we investigated hybrid methodologies wherein each module has the exibility of using sampling or PCE based methods of capturing local uncertainties while maintaining accuracy in the global uncertainty analysis. For the latter case, we use a conditional PCE model which mitigates the curse of dimension associated with intru- sive Galerkin or semi-intrusive Pseudospectral methods. After formalizing the theoretical framework, we demonstrate our proposed method using a numerical viscous ow simulation and benchmark the performance against a solely Monte-Carlo method and solely spectral method.

  12. BridgeGreen : bridging the disconnect between design professionals and resources fro environmentally, socially, and economically responsive architecture

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Elbaum, Meredith Sue, 1975-

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Sustainable design, whether referred to as green, high performing, responsible, or environmentally, socially, and economically responsive architecture, is influencing the global building industry. Most major firms of ...

  13. Human Ecology, Vol. 32, No. 3, June 2004 ( C 2004) Do Markets Worsen Economic Inequalities?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gurven, Michael

    Human Ecology, Vol. 32, No. 3, June 2004 ( C 2004) Do Markets Worsen Economic Inequalities? Kuznets,forexample,increasingincomeinequal- ities. The Kuznets hypothesis predicts that the link between income inequality and income (a proxy: economic inequality; Kuznets; Tsimane'; Bolivia; markets; globalization. INTRODUCTION Economic inequalities

  14. Essays in labor economics and the economics of education

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thomas, Jaime Lynn

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Quarterly Journal of Economics. Kane, Thomas J. and CeciliaEducational Aspirations. Economics of Education Review,Educational Attainment. Economics of Education Review, 19:

  15. Global Warming

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOEThe Bonneville Power AdministrationField8,Dist.NewofGeothermal Heat Pump Basics31/2007 TeppeiProgramsGlobal1

  16. DILIP MOOKHERJEE Department of Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Spence, Harlan Ernest

    09/09 DILIP MOOKHERJEE OFFICE: Department of Economics 270 Bay State Road Boston, MA 02215. Tel: Development, Microeconomics. EDUCATION: Ph.D. (Economics), London School of Economics, 1982. M.Sc.(Econometrics and Mathematical Economics), London School of Economics, 1980. M.A . (Economics), Delhi School of Economics, 1978

  17. Economic Value of Agricultural

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Economic Value of Agricultural Research Public Investment in Texas Agricultural Research Yields Significant Economic Returns #12;Texas agricultural producers and especially consumers benefit directly from public investment in agricultural research. According to a 2006 study (Huffman and Evenson), the overall

  18. Water Resources Policy & Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buehrer, R. Michael

    Water Resources Policy & Economics FOR 4984 Selected Course Topics Appropriative and riparian water institutions Incentives for conservation Water rights for in-stream environmental use Surface water-groundwater management Water quality regulations Water markets Economic and policy

  19. Economic Improvement Districts (Indiana)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A legislative body may adopt an ordinance establishing an economic improvement district and an Economic Improvement Board to manage development in a respective district. The Board can choose to...

  20. Academy for Global Engagement

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Academy for Global Engagement 2013-2014 Global Fellows #12;Meredith Gore and Wildlife #12;Global Research Interests · risk percepHon and public support and Agricultural Engineering #12;Global Research Interests · catalyHc conversion of biomass

  1. global warming's six indias

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haller, Gary L.

    global warming's six indias: An Audience Segmentation Analysis #12;Global Warming's Six Indias 1............................................................................................................................................20 2. Global Warming Beliefs and Attitudes................................................................................ 21 Knowledge about global warming varies widely by group

  2. Estimating the uncertainty in underresolved nonlinear dynamics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chorin, Alelxandre; Hald, Ole

    2013-06-12T23:59:59.000Z

    The Mori-Zwanzig formalism of statistical mechanics is used to estimate the uncertainty caused by underresolution in the solution of a nonlinear dynamical system. A general approach is outlined and applied to a simple example. The noise term that describes the uncertainty turns out to be neither Markovian nor Gaussian. It is argued that this is the general situation.

  3. in Economics and Finance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van der Torre, Leon

    Master's in Economics and Finance #12;2 3 "A research-centred institution with a personal REASONS TO STUDY The Master's in Economics and Finance programme targets students wishing to obtain a comprehensive and rigorous education in Economics and Finance. It emphasizes the complementary nature

  4. Economic Evaluation of Radiopharmaceutical

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    97-2 Planning Report Economic Evaluation of Radiopharmaceutical Research at NIST U.S Department Radiation Division Physics Laboratory National Institute of Standards and Technology #12;Economic Evaluation in this report. #12;Economic Evaluation of Radiopharmaceutical Research at NIST I. Introduction Nuclear medicine

  5. Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jordan, D.; Kurtz, S.; Hansen, C.

    2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Dependable and predictable energy production is the key to the long-term success of the PV industry. PV systems show over the lifetime of their exposure a gradual decline that depends on many different factors such as module technology, module type, mounting configuration, climate etc. When degradation rates are determined from continuous data the statistical uncertainty is easily calculated from the regression coefficients. However, total uncertainty that includes measurement uncertainty and instrumentation drift is far more difficult to determine. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was chosen to investigate a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The most important effect for degradation rates is to avoid instrumentation that changes over time in the field. For instance, a drifting irradiance sensor, which can be achieved through regular calibration, can lead to a substantially erroneous degradation rates. However, the accuracy of the irradiance sensor has negligible impact on degradation rate uncertainty emphasizing that precision (relative accuracy) is more important than absolute accuracy.

  6. Three Essays on Financial Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Qu, Haonan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Journal of Financial Economics, February 2003, 67 (2), 217Journal of Financial Economics, March 2008, 87 (3), 706739.International Finance and Economics, 2008. Schiozer, Rafael

  7. www.GlobalStudiesJournal.com Volume 4, Issue 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    's economic expansion into South America? and 2) How has Ecuador responded to China's political and economic growth and political power, China's growing economy has catapulted this historically self-reliant country into the global political spotlight over the last three decades. While China's seemingly insatiable need

  8. Globalization and Human Cooperation Supporting Information (SI)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Globalization and Human Cooperation Supporting Information (SI) Nancy R. Buchana Gianluca Grimaldab University, Houston, TX 77005, USA d Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA e Laboratory for Research in Experimental Economics, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain 46020 f

  9. HANDBOOK OF GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION Volume 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2001-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

    Deformation methods of global optimization in chemistry and phy- sics. 461 ... In engineering, economic and scientific studies, quantitative decisions are frequently ... in applied mathematical, physical, chemical, biological, environmental, ..... OR and computer science textbooks; hence, we will not repeat the ex- position here...

  10. Emissions Pricing to Stabilize Global Climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ) and the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR). These two centers bridge many key areas an interdisciplinary group from two established research centers at MIT: the Center for Global Change Science (CGCS that are most relevant to economic, social, and environmental effects. In turn, the greenhouse gas

  11. A Global Compact to End Poverty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A Global Compact to End Poverty Jeffrey Sachs on stabilisation, transition and weapons of mass progress. We can realistically envision a world without extreme poverty by the year 2025 because. Sachs, The End of Poverty, 2005. WORLD ECONOMICS Vol. 6 No. 4 OctoberDecember 2005 11 Jeffrey D

  12. Sensitivity and uncertainty studies of the CRAC2 code for selected non-meteorological models and parameters

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kocher, D.C.; Killough, G.G.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.

    1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We have studied the sensitivity of health impacts and economic costs from hypothetical nuclear reactor accidents, as predicted by the CRAC2 computer code, to undertainties in selected non-meteorological models and parameters. The sources of uncertainty include (1) dose conversion factors for inhalation as affected by uncertainties in the particle size of the carrier aerosol and clearance of radionuclides from the respiratory tract, (2) the weathering half-time for external ground-surface exposure, and (3) transfer coefficients for terrestrial foodchain pathways. Uncertainties in inhalation dose conversion factors affected predicted early injuries by as much as 1 to 2 orders of magnitude in runs with fixed weather sequences, whereas the effects on early fatalities were less than a factor of 2 and on latent cancer fatalities less than 10%. Uncertainties in the weathering half-time for ground-surface exposure affected latent fatalities by a factor of 2 to 3 but economic costs by less than a factor of 2. Uncertainties in the transfer coefficients for terrestrial foodchain pathways affected latent fatalities by less than 15% and had no effect on economic costs. 10 references.

  13. Direct Entry Accounting and Economics School of Business and Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hickman, Mark

    Direct Entry ­ Accounting and Economics School of Business and Economics Accounting Students who.acis.canterbury.ac.nz #12;Direct Entry ­ Accounting and Economics School of Business and Economics Economics In order to obtain direct entry to 200 level economics (ECON 206 and ECON 207/208) in their first year of university

  14. DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS MIHAYLO COLLEGE OF BUSINESS & ECONOMICS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS MIHAYLO COLLEGE OF BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Economics Up to Two Tenure-Track Positions The Department of Economics at the Mihaylo College of Business and Economics at California State of Economics, 800 North State College Blvd., Fullerton, CA 92831. Application Deadline Incomplete files

  15. Numerical uncertainty in computational engineering and physics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Obtaining a solution that approximates ordinary or partial differential equations on a computational mesh or grid does not necessarily mean that the solution is accurate or even 'correct'. Unfortunately assessing the quality of discrete solutions by questioning the role played by spatial and temporal discretizations generally comes as a distant third to test-analysis comparison and model calibration. This publication is contributed to raise awareness of the fact that discrete solutions introduce numerical uncertainty. This uncertainty may, in some cases, overwhelm in complexity and magnitude other sources of uncertainty that include experimental variability, parametric uncertainty and modeling assumptions. The concepts of consistency, convergence and truncation error are overviewed to explain the articulation between the exact solution of continuous equations, the solution of modified equations and discrete solutions computed by a code. The current state-of-the-practice of code and solution verification activities is discussed. An example in the discipline of hydro-dynamics illustrates the significant effect that meshing can have on the quality of code predictions. A simple method is proposed to derive bounds of solution uncertainty in cases where the exact solution of the continuous equations, or its modified equations, is unknown. It is argued that numerical uncertainty originating from mesh discretization should always be quantified and accounted for in the overall uncertainty 'budget' that supports decision-making for applications in computational physics and engineering.

  16. Uncertainty quantification approaches for advanced reactor analyses.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Briggs, L. L.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2009-03-24T23:59:59.000Z

    The original approach to nuclear reactor design or safety analyses was to make very conservative modeling assumptions so as to ensure meeting the required safety margins. Traditional regulation, as established by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission required conservatisms which have subsequently been shown to be excessive. The commission has therefore moved away from excessively conservative evaluations and has determined best-estimate calculations to be an acceptable alternative to conservative models, provided the best-estimate results are accompanied by an uncertainty evaluation which can demonstrate that, when a set of analysis cases which statistically account for uncertainties of all types are generated, there is a 95% probability that at least 95% of the cases meet the safety margins. To date, nearly all published work addressing uncertainty evaluations of nuclear power plant calculations has focused on light water reactors and on large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) analyses. However, there is nothing in the uncertainty evaluation methodologies that is limited to a specific type of reactor or to specific types of plant scenarios. These same methodologies can be equally well applied to analyses for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and to liquid metal reactors, and they can be applied to steady-state calculations, operational transients, or severe accident scenarios. This report reviews and compares both statistical and deterministic uncertainty evaluation approaches. Recommendations are given for selection of an uncertainty methodology and for considerations to be factored into the process of evaluating uncertainties for advanced reactor best-estimate analyses.

  17. WOLFGANG PESENDORFER Department of Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    WOLFGANG PESENDORFER Department of Economics Princeton University (609) 258 4017 DATE May 2014. EMPLOYMENT Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Northwestern University, 1992-96. Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Northwestern University, 1996-97 Professor, Department of Economics

  18. Global climate change and international security.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  19. Fractional revivals through Rnyi uncertainty relations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Elvira Romera; Francisco de los Santos

    2014-09-19T23:59:59.000Z

    We show that the R\\'enyi uncertainty relations give a good description of the dynamical behavior of wave packets and constitute a sound approach to revival phenomena by analyzing three model systems: the simple harmonic oscillator, the infinite square well, and the quantum bouncer. We prove the usefulness of entropic uncertainty relations as a tool for identifying fractional revivals by providing a comparison in different contexts with the usual Heisenberg uncertainty relation and with the common approach in terms of the autocorrelation function.

  20. Uncertainty Quantification on Prompt Fission Neutrons Spectra

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Talou, P. [T-16, Nuclear Physics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM 87545 (United States)], E-mail: talou@lanl.gov; Madland, D.G.; Kawano, T. [T-16, Nuclear Physics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM 87545 (United States)

    2008-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainties in the evaluated prompt fission neutrons spectra present in ENDF/B-VII.0 are assessed in the framework of the Los Alamos model. The methodology used to quantify the uncertainties on an evaluated spectrum is introduced. We also briefly review the Los Alamos model and single out the parameters that have the largest influence on the calculated results. Using a Kalman filter, experimental data and uncertainties are introduced to constrain model parameters, and construct an evaluated covariance matrix for the prompt neutrons spectrum. Preliminary results are shown in the case of neutron-induced fission of {sup 235}U from thermal up to 15 MeV incident energies.

  1. FOOTPRINTS OF IRELAND: HERITAGE AND LANDSCAPE Globally and nationally, we seem to be faced with significant challenges; climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 FOOTPRINTS OF IRELAND: HERITAGE AND LANDSCAPE Globally and nationally, we seem to be faced, religious and economic changes across time. Archaeological, historical and scientific research often reveals

  2. DAMAGE ASSESSMENT OF COMPOSITE PLATE STRUCTURES WITH UNCERTAINTY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    DAMAGE ASSESSMENT OF COMPOSITE PLATE STRUCTURES WITH UNCERTAINTY Chandrashekhar M.* , Ranjan Uncertainties associated with a structural model and measured vibration data may lead to unreliable damage that material uncertainties in composite structures cause considerable problem in damage assessment which can

  3. Error Detection and Recovery for Robot Motion Planning with Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Donald, Bruce Randall

    1987-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Robots must plan and execute tasks in the presence of uncertainty. Uncertainty arises from sensing errors, control errors, and uncertainty in the geometry of the environment. The last, which is called model error, has ...

  4. Improvements to Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Danon, Yaron; Nazarewicz, Witold; Talou, Patrick

    2013-02-18T23:59:59.000Z

    This project addresses three important gaps in existing evaluated nuclear data libraries that represent a significant hindrance against highly advanced modeling and simulation capabilities for the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI). This project will: Develop advanced theoretical tools to compute prompt fission neutrons and gamma-ray characteristics well beyond average spectra and multiplicity, and produce new evaluated files of U and Pu isotopes, along with some minor actinides; Perform state-of-the-art fission cross-section modeling and calculations using global and microscopic model input parameters, leading to truly predictive fission cross-sections capabilities. Consistent calculations for a suite of Pu isotopes will be performed; Implement innovative data assimilation tools, which will reflect the nuclear data evaluation process much more accurately, and lead to a new generation of uncertainty quantification files. New covariance matrices will be obtained for Pu isotopes and compared to existing ones. The deployment of a fleet of safe and efficient advanced reactors that minimize radiotoxic waste and are proliferation-resistant is a clear and ambitious goal of AFCI. While in the past the design, construction and operation of a reactor were supported through empirical trials, this new phase in nuclear energy production is expected to rely heavily on advanced modeling and simulation capabilities. To be truly successful, a program for advanced simulations of innovative reactors will have to develop advanced multi-physics capabilities, to be run on massively parallel super- computers, and to incorporate adequate and precise underlying physics. And all these areas have to be developed simultaneously to achieve those ambitious goals. Of particular interest are reliable fission cross-section uncertainty estimates (including important correlations) and evaluations of prompt fission neutrons and gamma-ray spectra and uncertainties.

  5. Uncertainty in climate change policy analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G.

    Achieving agreement about whether and how to control greenhouse gas emissions would be difficult enough even if the consequences were fully known. Unfortunately, choices must be made in the face of great uncertainty, about ...

  6. Methods for Composing Tradeoff Studies under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bily, Christopher

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    for the power train. This level of knowledge reuse is in keeping with good systems engineering practice. However, existing procedures for generating tradeoff studies under uncertainty involve assumptions that preclude engineers from composing them in a...

  7. Uncertainty Quantification in ocean state estimation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kalmikov, Alexander G

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Quantifying uncertainty and error bounds is a key outstanding challenge in ocean state estimation and climate research. It is particularly difficult due to the large dimensionality of this nonlinear estimation problem and ...

  8. A note on competitive investment under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pindyck, Robert S.

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper clarifies how uncertainty affects irreversible investment in a competitive market equilibrium. With free entry, irreversibility affects the distribution of future prices, and thereby creates an opportunity cost ...

  9. Handling uncertainty in DEX methodology Martin Znidarsic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bohanec, Marko

    URPDM2010 1 Handling uncertainty in DEX methodology Martin Znidarsic Jozef Stefan Institute, Jamova cesta 39, martin.znidarsic@ijs.si Marko Bohanec Jozef Stefan Institute, Jamova cesta 39, marko

  10. Estimating uncertainties in integrated reservoir studies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Guohong

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    To make sound investment decisions, decision makers need accurate estimates of the uncertainties present in forecasts of reservoir performance. In this work I propose a method, the integrated mismatch method, that incorporates the misfit...

  11. Multifidelity methods for multidisciplinary design under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Christensen, Daniel Erik

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    For computational design and analysis tasks, scientists and engineers often have available many different simulation models. The output of each model has an associated uncertainty that is a result of the modeling process. ...

  12. Sandia Energy - Computational Fluid Dynamics & Large-Scale Uncertainty...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    & Large-Scale Uncertainty Quantification for Wind Energy Home Highlights - HPC Computational Fluid Dynamics & Large-Scale Uncertainty Quantification for Wind Energy Previous Next...

  13. Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption from sediments. Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption from sediments. Abstract: A...

  14. avt-147 computational uncertainty: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Summary: models of uncertainties, the construction of the stochastic models using the maximum entropy principleStochastic modeling of uncertainties in computational structural...

  15. advanced lmrs uncertainties: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Summary: models of uncertainties, the construction of the stochastic models using the maximum entropy principleStochastic modeling of uncertainties in computational structural...

  16. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bradley, M.E. (Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)); Wood, A.R.O. (BP Exploration, Anchorage, AK (United States))

    1994-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended.

  17. Using Information on Uncertainty to Improve Environmental Fate Modeling: A Case Study on DDT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schenker, Urs; Scheringer, Martin; Sohn, Michael D.; Maddalena, Randy L.; McKone, Thomas E.; Hungerbuhler, Konrad

    2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Present and future concentrations of DDT in the environment are calculated with the global multi-media model CliMoChem. Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess the importance of uncertainties in substance property data, emission rates, and environmental parameters for model results. Uncertainties in the model results, expressed as 95percent confidence intervals of DDT concentrations in various environmental media, in different geographical locations, and at different points in time are typically between one and two orders of magnitude. An analysis of rank correlations between model inputs and predicted DDT concentrations indicates that emission estimates and degradation rate constants, in particular in the atmosphere, are the most influential model inputs. For DDT levels in the Arctic, temperature dependencies of substance properties are also influential parameters. A Bayesian Monte Carlo approach is used to update uncertain model inputs based on measurements of DDT in the field. The updating procedure suggests a lower value for half-life in air and a reduced range of uncertainty for KOW of DDT. As could be expected, the Bayesian updating yields model results that are closer to observations, and model uncertainties have decreased. The combined sensitivity analysis and Bayesian Monte Carlo approach provide new insight into important processes that govern the global fate and persistence of DDT in the environment.

  18. Economics (College of Arts and Sciences) The economics major focuses on economics as a social science.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miles, Will

    Economics (College of Arts and Sciences) The economics major focuses on economics as a social in the world? What types of political regimes best promote economic development? Are resource-rich developing countries cursed? Are drug cartels economically sound? Can humans work towards a better economic basis

  19. Reactor Neutrino Flux Uncertainty Suppression on Multiple Detector Experiments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Andi Cucoanes; Pau Novella; Anatael Cabrera; Muriel Fallot; Anthony Onillon; Michel Obolensky; Frederic Yermia

    2015-01-02T23:59:59.000Z

    This publication provides a coherent treatment for the reactor neutrino flux uncertainties suppression, specially focussed on the latest $\\theta_{13}$ measurement. The treatment starts with single detector in single reactor site, most relevant for all reactor experiments beyond $\\theta_{13}$. We demonstrate there is no trivial error cancellation, thus the flux systematic error can remain dominant even after the adoption of multi-detector configurations. However, three mechanisms for flux error suppression have been identified and calculated in the context of Double Chooz, Daya Bay and RENO sites. Our analysis computes the error {\\it suppression fraction} using simplified scenarios to maximise relative comparison among experiments. We have validated the only mechanism exploited so far by experiments to improve the precision of the published $\\theta_{13}$. The other two newly identified mechanisms could lead to total error flux cancellation under specific conditions and are expected to have major implications on the global $\\theta_{13}$ knowledge today. First, Double Chooz, in its final configuration, is the only experiment benefiting from a negligible reactor flux error due to a $\\sim$90\\% geometrical suppression. Second, Daya Bay and RENO could benefit from their partial geometrical cancellation, yielding a potential $\\sim$50\\% error suppression, thus significantly improving the global $\\theta_{13}$ precision today. And third, we illustrate the rationale behind further error suppression upon the exploitation of the inter-reactor error correlations, so far neglected. So, our publication is a key step forward in the context of high precision neutrino reactor experiments providing insight on the suppression of their intrinsic flux error uncertainty, thus affecting past and current experimental results, as well as the design of future experiments.

  20. SWAMC Economic Summit

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The 27th Annual Southwest Alaska Economic Summit and Business Meeting is a three-day conference covering energy efficiency planning, information on Alaska programs, and more.

  1. Essays in Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Romem, Israel Hadas

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Kingdom in Ancient Egypt Introduction . . . . . . . . . .D. and E. Teeter (2007). Egypt and the Egyptians. Cambridge:of the State in Ancient Egypt. Explorations in Economic

  2. Programmatic methods for addressing contaminated volume uncertainties.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DURHAM, L.A.; JOHNSON, R.L.; RIEMAN, C.R.; SPECTOR, H.L.; Environmental Science Division; U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS BUFFALO DISTRICT

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Accurate estimates of the volumes of contaminated soils or sediments are critical to effective program planning and to successfully designing and implementing remedial actions. Unfortunately, data available to support the preremedial design are often sparse and insufficient for accurately estimating contaminated soil volumes, resulting in significant uncertainty associated with these volume estimates. The uncertainty in the soil volume estimates significantly contributes to the uncertainty in the overall project cost estimates, especially since excavation and off-site disposal are the primary cost items in soil remedial action projects. The Army Corps of Engineers Buffalo District's experience has been that historical contaminated soil volume estimates developed under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) often underestimated the actual volume of subsurface contaminated soils requiring excavation during the course of a remedial activity. In response, the Buffalo District has adopted a variety of programmatic methods for addressing contaminated volume uncertainties. These include developing final status survey protocols prior to remedial design, explicitly estimating the uncertainty associated with volume estimates, investing in predesign data collection to reduce volume uncertainties, and incorporating dynamic work strategies and real-time analytics in predesign characterization and remediation activities. This paper describes some of these experiences in greater detail, drawing from the knowledge gained at Ashland1, Ashland2, Linde, and Rattlesnake Creek. In the case of Rattlesnake Creek, these approaches provided the Buffalo District with an accurate predesign contaminated volume estimate and resulted in one of the first successful FUSRAP fixed-price remediation contracts for the Buffalo District.

  3. Identifying and bounding uncertainties in nuclear reactor thermal power calculations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phillips, J.; Hauser, E.; Estrada, H. [Cameron, 1000 McClaren Woods Drive, Coraopolis, PA 15108 (United States)

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Determination of the thermal power generated in the reactor core of a nuclear power plant is a critical element in the safe and economic operation of the plant. Direct measurement of the reactor core thermal power is made using neutron flux instrumentation; however, this instrumentation requires frequent calibration due to changes in the measured flux caused by fuel burn-up, flux pattern changes, and instrumentation drift. To calibrate the nuclear instruments, steam plant calorimetry, a process of performing a heat balance around the nuclear steam supply system, is used. There are four basic elements involved in the calculation of thermal power based on steam plant calorimetry: The mass flow of the feedwater from the power conversion system, the specific enthalpy of that feedwater, the specific enthalpy of the steam delivered to the power conversion system, and other cycle gains and losses. Of these elements, the accuracy of the feedwater mass flow and the feedwater enthalpy, as determined from its temperature and pressure, are typically the largest contributors to the calorimetric calculation uncertainty. Historically, plants have been required to include a margin of 2% in the calculation of the reactor thermal power for the licensed maximum plant output to account for instrumentation uncertainty. The margin is intended to ensure a cushion between operating power and the power for which safety analyses are performed. Use of approved chordal ultrasonic transit-time technology to make the feedwater flow and temperature measurements (in place of traditional differential-pressure- based instruments and resistance temperature detectors [RTDs]) allows for nuclear plant thermal power calculations accurate to 0.3%-0.4% of plant rated power. This improvement in measurement accuracy has allowed many plant operators in the U.S. and around the world to increase plant power output through Measurement Uncertainty Recapture (MUR) up-rates of up to 1.7% of rated power, while also decreasing the probability of significant over-power events. This paper will examine the basic elements involved in calculation of thermal power using ultrasonic transit-time technology and will discuss the criteria for bounding uncertainties associated with each element in order to achieve reactor thermal power calculations to within 0.3% to 0.4%. (authors)

  4. Why are climate models reproducing the observed global surface warming so well?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischlin, Andreas

    Why are climate models reproducing the observed global surface warming so well? Reto Knutti1 global surface warming so well?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L18704, doi:10.1029/ 2008GL034932. 1 models reproduce the observed surface warming better than one would expect given the uncertainties

  5. Estimating uncertainty of inference for validation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

    2010-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    We present a validation process based upon the concept that validation is an inference-making activity. This has always been true, but the association has not been as important before as it is now. Previously, theory had been confirmed by more data, and predictions were possible based on data. The process today is to infer from theory to code and from code to prediction, making the role of prediction somewhat automatic, and a machine function. Validation is defined as determining the degree to which a model and code is an accurate representation of experimental test data. Imbedded in validation is the intention to use the computer code to predict. To predict is to accept the conclusion that an observable final state will manifest; therefore, prediction is an inference whose goodness relies on the validity of the code. Quantifying the uncertainty of a prediction amounts to quantifying the uncertainty of validation, and this involves the characterization of uncertainties inherent in theory/models/codes and the corresponding data. An introduction to inference making and its associated uncertainty is provided as a foundation for the validation problem. A mathematical construction for estimating the uncertainty in the validation inference is then presented, including a possibility distribution constructed to represent the inference uncertainty for validation under uncertainty. The estimation of inference uncertainty for validation is illustrated using data and calculations from Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). The ICF measurements of neutron yield and ion temperature were obtained for direct-drive inertial fusion capsules at the Omega laser facility. The glass capsules, containing the fusion gas, were systematically selected with the intent of establishing a reproducible baseline of high-yield 10{sup 13}-10{sup 14} neutron output. The deuterium-tritium ratio in these experiments was varied to study its influence upon yield. This paper on validation inference is the first in a series of inference uncertainty estimations. While the methods demonstrated are primarily statistical, these do not preclude the use of nonprobabilistic methods for uncertainty characterization. The methods presented permit accurate determinations for validation and eventual prediction. It is a goal that these methods establish a standard against which best practice may evolve for determining degree of validation.

  6. The global carbon dioxide budget

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sundquist, E.T. (Geological Survey, Woods Hole, MA (United States))

    1993-02-12T23:59:59.000Z

    The increase in atmospheric CO[sub 2] levels during the last deglaciation was comparable in magnitude to the recent historical increase. However, global CO[sub 2] budgets for these changes reflect fundamental differences in rates and in sources and sinks. The modern oceans are a rapid net CO[sub 2] sink, whereas the oceans were a gradual source during the deglaciation. Unidentified terrestrial CO[sub 2] sinks are important uncertainties in both the deglacial and recent CO[sub 2] budgets. The deglacial CO[sub 2] budget represents a complexity of long-term dynamic behavior that is not adequately addressed by current models used to forecast future atmospheric CO[sub 2] levels.

  7. Hysteresis and Economics Taking the economic past into account

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lamba, Harbir

    Hysteresis and Economics Taking the economic past into account R. Cross M. Grinfeld H. Lamba of hysteresis to economic models. In particular, we explain why many aspects of real economic systems control. The growing appreciation of the ways that memory effects influence the functioning of economic

  8. DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hickman, Mark

    DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY OF CANTERBURY CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND IV Estimation of a Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic of Economics and Finance College of Business and Economics University of Canterbury Private Bag 4800

  9. For additional information, contact: Department of Agricultural Economics & Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawrence, Rick L.

    For additional information, contact: Department of Agricultural Economics & Economics Montana State.montana.edu/econ agecon@montana.edu 1 2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & ECONOMICS KELLY GORHAM 1 Austin Owens traveled to Greece as mentors for students in Economics 101 4 Chris Stoddard was the recipient of a MSU Cox Family Faculty

  10. DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hickman, Mark

    DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY OF CANTERBURY/2010 Department of Economics and Finance College of Business and Economics University of Canterbury Private Bag in Leading ASEAN Destinations* Chia-Ling Chang Department of Applied Economics National Chung Hsing

  11. The China-in-Global Energy Model Tianyu Qi, Niven Winchester, Da Zhang,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of production, consumption and trade among multiple global regions and sectors ­ including five energy to communicate research results and improve public understanding of global environment and energy challenges-intensive sectors ­ to analyze global energy demand, CO2 emissions, and economic activity. The C-GEM model supplies

  12. S ~ C ~and Tlymmics of the Global Economy:Network sls sf International

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    White, Douglas R.

    S ~ C ~and Tlymmics of the Global Economy:Network sls sf International Trade 1961980* DAV][DA. m issuesin international political economy.Theworld-systemapproach suggests that the structure of the global of the world economic system and to identify the roles that particular counfries play in the global division

  13. Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Schuermann, Til; Smith, L Vanessa

    City, June 24-27, 2007 and at the Bank of England Research Workshop on Dynamic Factor Models held at the Bank of England, 8-10 October 2007. We are grateful for comments by the discussants James Stock and Domenico Giannone as well as to Frank Diebold... and Weiner, PSW, (2004), and further developed in Dees, di Mauro, Pesaran and Smith, DdPS, (2007), for answering some of these questions. We do so recognising that macroeconomic policy analysis and risk management need to take into account the increasing...

  14. An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mercure, Jean-Francois; Salas, Pablo

    2012-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

    - tributions. Thus, in the case of oil and gas, independent distri- butions of the hierarchical type were assigned to every resource subtype, such as conventional oil, oil sands, oil shales, etc. This resulted in composite cost-supply curves with complex struc...

  15. THE ECONOMIC PAYOFF FOR GLOBAL WARMING EMISSIONS REDUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dr. Sam; V. Shelton; Laura A. Schaefer

    efficiency technology, such as residential electric heat pump water heaters, can cause carbon reduction to

  16. Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYouTube YouTube Note: Since the.pdfBreakingMay 2015ParentsMiddle SchoolPhysics | DepartmentRecoveryChallenges in Talks

  17. Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels DataDepartment of Energy Your Density Isn'tOriginEducationVideo »Usage »DownloadSolarSequestrationof the AmericasChallenges in Talks with

  18. Wind Economic Development (Postcard)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Wind Powering America initiative provides information on the economic development benefits of wind energy. This postcard is a marketing piece that stakeholders can provide to interested parties; it will guide them to the economic development benefits section on the Wind Powering America website.

  19. Agricultural and Resource Economics Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carter, Colin A.; Novan, Kevin; Rausser, Gordon; Iho, Antti; Parker, Doug; Zilberman, David

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    despite globalization tendencies elsewhere in the economy.globalization in the non-agricultural sectors of the world economy.

  20. Modeling the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.

    2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Decisions made to address climate change must start with an understanding of the risk of an uncertain future to human systems, which in turn means understanding both the consequence as well as the probability of a climate induced impact occurring. In other words, addressing climate change is an exercise in risk-informed policy making, which implies that there is no single correct answer or even a way to be certain about a single answer; the uncertainty in future climate conditions will always be present and must be taken as a working-condition for decision making. In order to better understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions, this study estimates the impacts from responses to climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity by employing a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. Using the results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) as a proxy for climate uncertainty, changes in hydrology over the next 40 years were mapped and then modeled to determine the physical consequences on economic activity and to perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of the economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. The analysis determines industry-level effects, employment impacts at the state level, interstate population migration, consequences to personal income, and ramifications for the U.S. trade balance. The conclusions show that the average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs. Further analysis shows that an increase in uncertainty raises this risk. This paper will present the methodology behind the approach, a summary of the underlying models, as well as the path forward for improving the approach.

  1. Estimation of methane and carbon dioxide surface fluxes using a 3-D global atmospheric chemical transport model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Yu-Han, 1973-

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Methane (CH?) and carbon dioxide (CO?) are the two most radiatively important greenhouse gases attributable to human activity. Large uncertainties in their source and sink magnitudes currently exist. We estimate global ...

  2. INCORPORATING UNCERTAINTY INTO DAM SAFETY RISK Sanjay S. Chauhan1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chauhan, Sanjay S.

    on the topic of uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis the reader is referred to Morgan to incorporating input uncertainties into risk analysis model. Input uncertainties are captured by using for uncertainty analysis in dam safety risk assessment, and demonstrates some useful formats for presenting

  3. Bounded Uncertainty Roadmaps for Path Planning Leonidas J. Guibas1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guibas, Leonidas J.

    Bounded Uncertainty Roadmaps for Path Planning Leonidas J. Guibas1 , David Hsu2 , Hanna Kurniawati2 uncertainty during planning. We in- troduce the notion of a bounded uncertainty roadmap (BURM) and use, and it is not much slower than classic probabilistic roadmap planning algorithms, which ignore uncertainty

  4. Quantifying uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clavreul, Julie, E-mail: julc@env.dtu.dk [Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby (Denmark); Guyonnet, Dominique [BRGM, ENAG BRGM-School, BP 6009, 3 Avenue C. Guillemin, 45060 Orleans Cedex (France); Christensen, Thomas H. [Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby (Denmark)

    2012-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management is significant. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Model, scenario and parameter uncertainties contribute. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Sequential procedure for quantifying uncertainty is proposed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Application of procedure is illustrated by a case-study. - Abstract: Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties.

  5. Uncertainty and sampling issues in tank characterization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liebetrau, A.M.; Pulsipher, B.A.; Kashporenko, D.M. [and others

    1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A defensible characterization strategy must recognize that uncertainties are inherent in any measurement or estimate of interest and must employ statistical methods for quantifying and managing those uncertainties. Estimates of risk and therefore key decisions must incorporate knowledge about uncertainty. This report focuses statistical methods that should be employed to ensure confident decision making and appropriate management of uncertainty. Sampling is a major source of uncertainty that deserves special consideration in the tank characterization strategy. The question of whether sampling will ever provide the reliable information needed to resolve safety issues is explored. The issue of sample representativeness must be resolved before sample information is reliable. Representativeness is a relative term but can be defined in terms of bias and precision. Currently, precision can be quantified and managed through an effective sampling and statistical analysis program. Quantifying bias is more difficult and is not being addressed under the current sampling strategies. Bias could be bounded by (1) employing new sampling methods that can obtain samples from other areas in the tanks, (2) putting in new risers on some worst case tanks and comparing the results from existing risers with new risers, or (3) sampling tanks through risers under which no disturbance or activity has previously occurred. With some bound on bias and estimates of precision, various sampling strategies could be determined and shown to be either cost-effective or infeasible.

  6. Effects of Economic Structure on Regional Economic Performance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hong, Sa Heum

    2014-06-04T23:59:59.000Z

    critical factor that constitutes regional economic performance. Thus, in this dissertation, I evaluate regional economic performance in terms of both growth and stability. In most previous studies, economic structure was found to be a factor that can...

  7. Three Essays on Development Economics and Behavioral Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Song, Changcheng

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112 (2), 407-441. Crawford,Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(4), 1233-1260. Gul,Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112 (2), 407-441. Carlin, B.

  8. ISO/GUM UNCERTAINTIES AND CIAAW (UNCERTAINTY TREATMENT FOR RECOMMENDED ATOMIC WEIGHTS AND ISOTOPIC ABUNDANCES)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    HOLDEN,N.E.

    2007-07-23T23:59:59.000Z

    The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) has published a Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM). The IUPAC Commission on Isotopic Abundance and Atomic Weight (CIAAW) began attaching uncertainty limits to their recommended values about forty years ago. CIAAW's method for determining and assigning uncertainties has evolved over time. We trace this evolution to their present method and their effort to incorporate the basic ISO/GUM procedures into evaluations of these uncertainties. We discuss some dilemma the CIAAW faces in their present method and whether it is consistent with the application of the ISO/GUM rules. We discuss the attempt to incorporate variations in measured isotope ratios, due to natural fractionation, into the ISO/GUM system. We make some observations about the inconsistent treatment in the incorporation of natural variations into recommended data and uncertainties. A recommendation for expressing atomic weight values using a tabulated range of values for various chemical elements is discussed.

  9. Defense nuclear agency - global effects program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Auton, D.

    1987-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Considerable progress has been made in the determination and analysis of fuel inventories and their distribution. Nonurban inventories are reasonably well documented and probably sufficient for most global effects analyses. Urban inventories are now in good shape for the United States. Work remains to be completed for European and Soviet urban areas. The largest single uncertainty and driving force for all subsequent analyses is the scenario. Knowing the fuel inventories and their distribution is critical and allows scenario assumptions to be played against the fuel bed data. The second largest uncertainty areas is the amount of smoke that would be produced for any given scenario. Much research is under way that contributes to resolving this issue, but there remain the following nagging problems: (1) dynamics of fire spreading and fire zone behavior; (2) scaling from laboratory and small-field measurements; and (3) relatability of materials burned in item 2 to the real case of interest.

  10. QUESTIONS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    QUESTIONS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING IS IT REAL? IS IT IMPORTANT? WHAT IS IT DUE TO? HOW MUCH MORE in the atmosphere, giving Earth its temperate climate. Global Atmosphere, Global Warming GLOBAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS THIS CARBON DIOXIDE COMING FROM? Other sources are home heating and electric power production. WE ARE ALL

  11. Global Health Seminar Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Klein, Ophir

    Bay Area Global Health Seminar Series Moving beyond millennium targets in global health: The challenges of investing in health and universal health coverage Although targets can help to focus global health efforts, they can also detract attention from deeper underlying challenges in global health

  12. Global Warming Observations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schofield, Jeremy

    Global Warming Observations: 1. Global temperature has been gradually rising in recent years #15 in range 8000 12000 nm { CFC's, methane and N 2 O important for global warming even though concentra- tions in concentration of \\greenhouse gases" like CO 2 What determines global temperature? Energy budget of earth: 1

  13. Programmatic methods for addressing contaminated volume uncertainties

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rieman, C.R.; Spector, H.L. [U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Buffalo District, Buffalo, NY (United States); Durham, L.A.; Johnson, R.L. [Argonne National Laboratory, Environmental Science Div., IL (United States)

    2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Accurate estimates of the volumes of contaminated soils or sediments are critical to effective program planning and to successfully designing and implementing remedial actions. Unfortunately, data available to support the pre-remedial design are often sparse and insufficient for accurately estimating contaminated soil volumes, resulting in significant uncertainty associated with these volume estimates. The uncertainty in the soil volume estimates significantly contributes to the uncertainty in the overall project cost estimates, especially since excavation and off-site disposal are the primary cost items in soil remedial action projects. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Buffalo District's experience has been that historical contaminated soil volume estimates developed under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) often underestimated the actual volume of subsurface contaminated soils requiring excavation during the course of a remedial activity. In response, the Buffalo District has adopted a variety of programmatic methods for addressing contaminated volume uncertainties. These include developing final status survey protocols prior to remedial design, explicitly estimating the uncertainty associated with volume estimates, investing in pre-design data collection to reduce volume uncertainties, and incorporating dynamic work strategies and real-time analytics in pre-design characterization and remediation activities. This paper describes some of these experiences in greater detail, drawing from the knowledge gained at Ashland 1, Ashland 2, Linde, and Rattlesnake Creek. In the case of Rattlesnake Creek, these approaches provided the Buffalo District with an accurate pre-design contaminated volume estimate and resulted in one of the first successful FUSRAP fixed-price remediation contracts for the Buffalo District. (authors)

  14. Assessing environmental benefits and economic costs of aviation environmental policy measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mahashabde, Anuja (Anuja Anil)

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Despite the recent global economic downturn, longer term growth is anticipated for aviation with an increasing environmental impact, specifically in the areas of noise, air quality, and climate change. To ensure sustainable ...

  15. Minnesota's Transportation Economic Development (TED)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Minnesota, University of

    Minnesota's Transportation Economic Development (TED) Pilot Program Center for Transportation Studies Transportation Research Conference May 24-25, 2011 #12;Transportation Role in Economic Development · Carefully targeted transportation infrastructure improvements will: ­ Stimulate new economic development

  16. The Economic University, FY2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Suzuki, Masatsugu

    The Economic Impact of Binghamton University, FY2011 (July 1, 2010-June 30, 2011) Office....................................................................................................................2 ECONOMIC OUTPUT and Tioga counties) and the New York State economy in terms of economic output, jobs, and human capital

  17. The Economic Impact of Binghamton

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Suzuki, Masatsugu

    The Economic Impact of Binghamton University, FY2010 (July 1, 2009-June 30, 2010) Office .......................................................................................................... 2 ECONOMIC OUTPUT and Tioga counties and the overall impact of New York State in terms of economic output, jobs, and human

  18. Three Essays on Development Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nakagawa, Hideyuki

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Journal of Public Economics 89(4): 705-727. Gertler, P andJournal of Labour Economics , Vol. 17, No. 2, April, 2010Smoothing, Journal of Economics Perspectives , 9(3), 103-

  19. Three essays in labor economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Liang Choon

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 123 (3), pp. 1111-1159.Kibbutz, Journal of Public Economics, vol. 93, pp. 498-511.Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 106(40), pp. 979-

  20. Three essays in labor economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tong, Patricia K.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    home outcomes. Health Economics 7: 639-653. Spector WD,Journal of Labor Economics, Vol 11(4), pp. 629-Three Essays in Labor Economics A dissertation submitted in

  1. Essays in Empirical Development Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ozier, Owen Whitfield

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    story, Journal of Development Economics, 91(1), 128139.Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 58(4), 450474.to Learn, Review of Economics and Statistics, 91(3), 437

  2. Three essays on behavioral economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meng, Juanjuan

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(2): 407-441. Crawford,Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121(4): 1133-1165. K?szegi,Models" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(4): 551-

  3. Essays in Behavioral Health Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Montoy, Juan Carlos Cantu

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121(3): 10631102, 2006.Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1): 5579, 2001. D.Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(4): 114987, 2001. G.

  4. Is the Heisenberg uncertainty relation really violated?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Masao Kitano

    2008-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

    It has been pointed out that for some types of measurement the Heisenberg uncertainty relation seems to be violated. In order to save the situation a new uncertainty relation was proposed by Ozawa. Here we introduce revised definitions of error and disturbance taking into account the gain associated with generalized measurement interactions. With these new definitions, the validity of the Heisenberg inequality is recovered for continuous linear measurement interactions. We also examine the changes in distribution functions caused by the general measurement interaction and clarify the physical meanings of infinitely large errors and disturbances.

  5. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Industrial production, oil production, oil price and oilvariables in the VAR, oil production quantity as well as oilquarterly global crude oil production, crude oil price and

  6. Essays in Environmental Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brandes, Julia

    2014-08-31T23:59:59.000Z

    , Finch, Komor, & Mignogna, 2012; Wiser & Barbose, 2008; Wiser, Namovicz, Gielecki, & Smith, 2007), economic analysis (e.g. Chen, Wiser, Mills, & Bolinger, 2009; Cappers & Goldman, 2010), specifically, electricity rate impacts (e.g. Kung, 2012; Morey...

  7. Essays in labor economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Williams, Tyler (Tyler Kenneth)

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    I addressed three questions in Labor Economics, using experimental and quasi-experimental variation to determine causality. In the first chapter, I ask whether playing longer in the NFL increases mortality in retirement. ...

  8. Essays in financial economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Severino Daz, Felipe

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis consists of three empirical essays in financial economics, examining the consequences of imperfect financial markets for households, small business and house prices. In the first chapter (co-authored with Meta ...

  9. Essays in computational economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pugh, David

    2014-07-02T23:59:59.000Z

    The focus of my PhD research has been on the acquisition of computational modeling and simulation methods used in both theoretical and applied Economics. My first chapter provides an interactive review of finite-difference ...

  10. Essays in environmental economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Deryugina, Tatyana

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis examines various aspects of environmental economics. The first chapter estimates how individuals' beliefs about climate change are affected by local weather fluctuations. Climate change is a one-time uncertain ...

  11. Opportunity and Economic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Northern British Columbia, University of

    of projects related to wood pellet emissions, operations, economics, and applications. The facility would research partnerships, and be an architectural prototype for natural materials, innovative wood products LIFESTYLE #12;CANADA'S GREENUNIVERSITYTM 1Build a Forest Products and Bioenergy Innovation Centre

  12. Essays in Development Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Keats, Anthony

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    cant save alone: commitment in rotating savings and creditDo Simple Savings Accounts Help the Poor to Save? EvidenceSave More Tomorrow: Using Behavioral Economics to Increase Employee Saving.

  13. Essays in financial economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Edmans, Alex

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis consists of three essays in financial economics. Chapter 1 is entitled "Inside Debt." Existing theories advocate the use of cash and equity in executive compensation. However, recent empirical studies have ...

  14. Implementation of global energy sustainability

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grob, G.R. [CMDC, Zurich (Switzerland)

    1998-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The term energy sustainability emerged from the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio 1992, when Agenda 21 was formulated and the Global Energy Charter proclaimed. Emission reductions, total energy costing, improved energy efficiency, and sustainable energy systems are the four fundamental principles of the charter. These principles can be implemented in the proposed financial, legal, technical, and education framework. Much has been done in many countries toward the implementation of the Global Energy Charter, but progress has not been fast enough to ease the disastrous effects of the too many ill-conceived energy systems on the environment, climate, and health. Global warming is accelerating, and pollution is worsening, especially in developing countries with their hunger for energy to meet the needs of economic development. Asian cities are now beating all pollution records, and greenhouse gases are visibly changing the climate with rising sea levels, retracting glaciers, and record weather disasters. This article presents why and how energy investments and research money have to be rechanneled into sustainable energy, rather than into the business-as-usual of depleting, unsustainable energy concepts exceeding one trillion dollars per year. This largest of all investment sectors needs much more attention.

  15. Transportation Economic Assistance Program (Wisconsin)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Transportation Economic Assistance Program provides state grants to private business and local governments to improve transportation to projects improving economic conditions and creating or...

  16. Wind Power Project Repowering: History, Economics, and Demand (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation summarizes a related NREL technical report and seeks to capture the current status of wind power project repowering in the U.S. and globally, analyze the economic and financial decision drivers that surround repowering, and to quantify the level and timing of demand for new turbine equipment to supply the repowering market.

  17. CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director-year increase in the debt ceiling -- both of which proceeded without the usual drama. Second, the private sector, corporate coffers are flush with cash, and low US energy prices have dramatically improved the global

  18. Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

  19. Bayesian Environmetrics: Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Draper, David

    (joint work with Bruno Mendes) Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics University of California and analysis of variance tools provide sensitivity analysis insight. -- Model uncertainty audit shows, as an energy source, has been employed in the United States and Europe for more than 50 years, and yet

  20. Stochastic Reduced Basis Methods for Uncertainty Quantification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sbester, Andrs

    Turbine Blades In general, stochastic analysis (using SRBM) of any physical system involves two main steps the variability in the performance of a turbine blade in the presence of uncertainty. These blades operate variability in material properties and boundary condi- tions. Given a numerical solution of the set of SPDEs

  1. Model Uncertainty in Discrete Event Systems \\Lambda

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garg, Vijay

    that a correct model of the system to be controlled was avail­ able. A goal of this wok is to provide be controllably distin­ guished. We use the finite state machine model with controllable and uncontrollable events to control systems in the presence of uncertainty in the model of the system and environment in which

  2. IJCAI-05 Workshop Reasoning with Uncertainty in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pineau, Joelle

    Problems via Spatio-Temporal Belief State Clustering [p.17] X. Li, W.K. Cheung, and J. Liu Dept Uncertainty [p. 70] P. Fabiani and F. Teichteil-Konigsbuch ONERA/DCSC, Toulouse, France iii #12;iv #12;IJCAI, Canada) Stergios Roumeliotis (University of Minnesota, USA) Nicholas Roy (MIT, USA) Alessandro Saffiotti

  3. Robot Motion Planning with Uncertainty The Challenge

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Whitton, Mary C.

    Roadmap (SMR), a new motion planning framework that explicitly considers uncertainty in robot motion approach. Our framework builds on the highly successful approach used in Probabilistic Roadmaps (PRMs of discrete states is selected in the state space, and a roadmap is built that represents their collision

  4. Dynamic Scheduling of Maintenance Activities Under Uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    of the required treatment. There are mainly two types of maintenance activities: the preventive maintenance, whoseDynamic Scheduling of Maintenance Activities Under Uncertainties Fran¸cois Marmier, Christophe in maintenance services field where the different practical knowledges or skills are their working tools. We

  5. Applying Calibration to Improve Uncertainty Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fondren, Mark Edward

    2013-08-02T23:59:59.000Z

    that uncertainty can be assessed more reliably through look-backs and calibration, i.e., comparing actual results to probabilistic predictions over time. While many recognize the importance of look-backs, calibration is seldom practiced in industry. I believe a...

  6. ELECTRICITY CASE: ECONOMIC COST ESTIMATION FACTORS FOR ECONOMIC

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Hai

    ELECTRICITY CASE: ECONOMIC COST ESTIMATION FACTORS FOR ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF TERRORIST ATTACKS Zimmerman, R. CREATE REPORT Under FEMA Grant EMW-2004-GR-0112 May 31, 2005 Center for Risk and Economic #12;2 Abstract The major economic effects of electric power outages are usually associated with three

  7. COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS Potomac Highlands Region Economic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    OUTLOOK COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS Potomac Highlands Region Economic Outlook 2014 is published by: Bureau of Business & Economic Research West Virginia University College of Business and Economics Jose V. "Zito" Sartarelli, Ph.D., Milan Puskar Dean P.O. Box 6527, Morgantown, WV 26506-6527 (304

  8. DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hickman, Mark

    on economic (monetary) incentives; and (ii) non-pecuniary, which rely primarily on psychological incentives and efficiency. Arguably, in practice, most of these mechanisms involve both types of incentives economicDEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY OF CANTERBURY CHRISTCHURCH

  9. BS in ECONOMICS (736021) MAP Sheet Department of Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Olsen Jr., Dan R.

    BS in ECONOMICS (736021) MAP Sheet Department of Economics For students entering the degree program The Economics Department requires a minimum of 21 hours in the major to be taken in residency at BYU courses: complete the following with a grade of C- or better: Econ 110* Economics Principles and Problems

  10. DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hickman, Mark

    DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY OF CANTERBURY McAleer WORKING PAPER No. 35/2010 Department of Economics and Finance College of Business and Economics University of Canterbury Private Bag 4800, Christchurch New Zealand #12;1 Combining Non

  11. BS in ECONOMICS (736021) MAP Sheet Department of Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Olsen Jr., Dan R.

    BS in ECONOMICS (736021) MAP Sheet Department of Economics For students entering the degree program approved list from approved list Econ 110* from approved list personal choice The Economics Department the following with a grade of C- or better: Econ 110* Economics Principles and Problems Econ 378 Statistics

  12. Gatton College of Business and Economics ECO Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacAdam, Keith

    Gatton College of Business and Economics ECO Economics KEY: # = new course * = course changed = course dropped University of Kentucky 2013-2014 Undergraduate Bulletin 1 ECO 101 CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC ISSUES. (3) A basic course in the analysis of contemporary economic issues with emphasis on current

  13. DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hickman, Mark

    DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY OF CANTERBURY CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND THE IMPACT OF QUESTION FORMAT IN PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS CLASSES: EVIDENCE FROM NEW ZEALAND Stephen Hickson WORKING PAPER No. 10/2010 Department of Economics and Finance College of Business

  14. DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hickman, Mark

    DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY OF CANTERBURY CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan Chia-Lin Chang, Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer WORKING PAPER No. 16/2010 Department of Economics

  15. BA in ECONOMICS (736020) MAP Sheet Department of Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Olsen Jr., Dan R.

    BA in ECONOMICS (736020) MAP Sheet Department of Economics For students entering the degree program The Economics Department requires a minimum of 21 hours in the major to be taken in residency at BYU courses: complete the following with a grade of C- or better: Econ 110* Economics Principles and Problems

  16. BA in ECONOMICS (736020) MAP Sheet Department of Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Olsen Jr., Dan R.

    BA in ECONOMICS (736020) MAP Sheet Department of Economics For students entering the degree program from approved list from approved list Econ 110* from approved list personal choice The Economics: complete the following with a grade of C- or better: Econ 110* Economics Principles and Problems Econ 378

  17. A flexible uncertainty quantification method for linearly coupled multi-physics systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, Xiao, E-mail: chen73@llnl.gov; Ng, Brenda; Sun, Yunwei; Tong, Charles, E-mail: tong10@llnl.gov

    2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Highlights: We propose a modularly hybrid UQ methodology suitable for independent development of module-based multi-physics simulation. Our algorithmic framework allows for each module to have its own UQ method (either intrusive or non-intrusive). Information from each module is combined systematically to propagate global uncertainty. Our proposed approach can allow for easy swapping of new methods for any modules without the need to address incompatibilities. We demonstrate the proposed framework on a practical application involving a multi-species reactive transport model. -- Abstract: This paper presents a novel approach to building an integrated uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodology suitable for modern-day component-based approach for multi-physics simulation development. Our hybrid UQ methodology supports independent development of the most suitable UQ method, intrusive or non-intrusive, for each physics module by providing an algorithmic framework to couple these stochastic modules for propagating global uncertainties. We address algorithmic and computational issues associated with the construction of this hybrid framework. We demonstrate the utility of such a framework on a practical application involving a linearly coupled multi-species reactive transport model.

  18. Assessing Fatigue and Ultimate Load Uncertainty in Floating Offshore Wind Turbines Due to Varying Simulation Length

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stewart, G.; Lackner, M.; Haid, L.; Matha, D.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.

    2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    With the push towards siting wind turbines farther offshore due to higher wind quality and less visibility, floating offshore wind turbines, which can be located in deep water, are becoming an economically attractive option. The International Electrotechnical Commission's (IEC) 61400-3 design standard covers fixed-bottom offshore wind turbines, but there are a number of new research questions that need to be answered to modify these standards so that they are applicable to floating wind turbines. One issue is the appropriate simulation length needed for floating turbines. This paper will discuss the results from a study assessing the impact of simulation length on the ultimate and fatigue loads of the structure, and will address uncertainties associated with changing the simulation length for the analyzed floating platform. Recommendations of required simulation length based on load uncertainty will be made and compared to current simulation length requirements.

  19. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    puzzle in the crude oil market. Working Paper 2010/634,shocks in the crude oil market. American Economic Review,more sensitive responses in the oil market than in the past,

  20. IEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    IEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board Daniel D. Huppert, Chair Lon L. Peters, Vice-Chair Joel R and Guidance for Economic Analysis in Subbasin Planning Independent Economic Analysis Board January 2003, document IEAB 2003-2 Summary Subbasin planning may need to consider two types of economic issues; 1

  1. Jobs and Economic Development Modeling

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Project objective: Develop models to estimate jobs and economic impacts from geothermal project development and operation.

  2. Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Kelic, Andjelka; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to the economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.

  3. Quantitative analysis of the economically recoverable resource

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pulle, C.V.; Seskus, A.P.

    1981-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The objective of this study is to obtain estimates of the economically recoverable gas in the Appalachian Basin. The estimates were obtained in terms of a probability distribution, which quantifies the inherent uncertainty associated with estimates where geologic and production uncertainties prevail. It is established that well productivity on a county and regional basis is lognormally distributed, and the total recoverable gas is Normally distributed. The expected (mean), total economically recoverable gas is 20.2 trillion cubic feet (TCF) with a standard deviation of 1.6 TCF, conditional on the use of shooting technology on 160-acre well-spacing. From properties of the Normal distribution, it is seen that a 95 percent probability exists for the total recoverable gas to lie between 17.06 and 23.34 TCF. The estimates are sensitive to well spacings and the technology applied to a particular geologic environment. It is observed that with smaller well spacings - for example, at 80 acres - the estimate is substantially increased, and that advanced technology, such as foam fracturing, has the potential of significantly increasing gas recovery. However, the threshold and optimum conditions governing advanced exploitation technology, based on well spacing and other parameters, were not analyzed in this study. Their technological impact on gas recovery is mentioned in the text where relevant; and on the basis of a rough projection an additional 10 TCF could be expected with the use of foam fracturing on wells with initial open flows lower than 300 MCFD. From the exploration point of view, the lognormal distribution of well productivity suggests that even in smaller areas, such as a county basis, intense exploration might be appropriate. This is evident from the small tail probabilities of the lognormal distribution, which represent the small number of wells with relatively very high productivity.

  4. Representation of analysis results involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, Jay Dean (ProStat, Mesa, AZ); Helton, Jon Craig (Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ); Oberkampf, William Louis; Sallaberry, Cedric J.

    2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Procedures are described for the representation of results in analyses that involve both aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty, with aleatory uncertainty deriving from an inherent randomness in the behavior of the system under study and epistemic uncertainty deriving from a lack of knowledge about the appropriate values to use for quantities that are assumed to have fixed but poorly known values in the context of a specific study. Aleatory uncertainty is usually represented with probability and leads to cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) or complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) for analysis results of interest. Several mathematical structures are available for the representation of epistemic uncertainty, including interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory and probability theory. In the presence of epistemic uncertainty, there is not a single CDF or CCDF for a given analysis result. Rather, there is a family of CDFs and a corresponding family of CCDFs that derive from epistemic uncertainty and have an uncertainty structure that derives from the particular uncertainty structure (i.e., interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory, probability theory) used to represent epistemic uncertainty. Graphical formats for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in families of CDFs and CCDFs are investigated and presented for the indicated characterizations of epistemic uncertainty.

  5. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    USEPA (2010, Feb 3). Renewable fuel standard program (RFS2)Ispra, 2010; p 150. USEPA Renewable Fuel Standard Program (European Parliament, Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC.

  6. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Impacts of United States Biofuel Policies: The Importance ofcoproduct substitution in the biofuel era. Agribusiness 27 (CGE: assessing the EU biofuel mandates with the MIRAGE-BioF

  7. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    demand: Comparison of models and results for marginal biofuels production from different feedstocks; EC Joint Research Centre - Institute for Energy:

  8. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse GasesLife-Cycle Assessment of Biofuels. Environmental Science &cellulosic ethanol. Biotechnol Biofuels 6 (1), 51. Elliott,

  9. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and W. Tyner (2011). Validating energy-oriented CGE models.Energy Eco- nomics 33 (5), 799806. Beckman, J. , R. Keeney,Centre - Institute for Energy: Ispra, 2010; p 150. USEPA

  10. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    distributions for soybean biodiesel (food fixed) . . . . . .distributions for soybean biodiesel (food not fixed) . . .land use from expanded biodiesel production. Technical

  11. Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. States.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reinert, Rhonda K.; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Robinson, David B.; Backus, George A.; Fogelman, William; Cutler, Laura; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Finely, Ray; Siirola, John; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Mitchiner, John Lovorn; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton; Kelic, Andjelka; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Strickland, James Hassler; Weddington, Anna Neila; Warren, Drake E.; Taylor, Mark A.; Loose, Verne W.; Richards, Elizabeth H.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Horschel, Daniel S.; Vargas, Vanessa N.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Snyder, Lillian Annabelle; Stubblefield, William Anthony; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Reno, Marissa Devan; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Roach, Jesse Dillon; Baker, Arnold Barry; Adams, Brian M.

    2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts from responses to climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-model ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.

  12. Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Reinert, Rhonda K.; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-model ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.

  13. Globalization of biopharmaceutical manufacturing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pande, Rachna

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The biomanufacturing industry is changing due to increasing globalization. However, it is changing differently from other high tech industries like software/ semiconductor/ automobiles. In this study we use global ...

  14. Global Environmental Course Title

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Takada, Shoji

    : Environmental discourses, Environment and development in Africa, Environmental conservation and Ainu people Department Global Environmental Studies Room Course Title Frontier of Sustainability Science Instructor Akihisa MORI, Global Environmental Studies Satoshi KONISHI, Institute of Advanced

  15. Nonsingular static global string

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A. A. Sen; N. Banerjee

    2000-04-12T23:59:59.000Z

    A new solution for the spacetime outside the core of a U(1) static global string has been presented which is nonsingular. This is the first example of a nonsingular spacetime around a static global string.}}

  16. Review: Globalization of Water

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tennant, Matthew Aaron

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Review: Globalization of Water: Sharing the PlanetsAshok K. Globalization of Water: Sharing the Planets140) liters of virtual water (p. 15). This is one of the

  17. Cows Causing Global Warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hacker, Randi

    2008-08-06T23:59:59.000Z

    Broadcast Transcript: Remember when President Reagan blamed trees for air pollution? Well now the Japanese are blaming cows for global warming. Apparently, the methane emissions from burping cows account for 5% of all global greenhouse gases. Simple...

  18. An ensemble CCDAS method to derive the full probabilityAn ensemble CCDAS method to derive the full probability distribution of the global net COdistribution of the global net CO22 fluxflux

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    probability distribution of the global net COdistribution of the global net CO22 fluxflux Tilo Ziehn, Marko to their a priori mean and standard deviation. This provides us with monthly fields of the net primary productivity are propagated forward using the Jacobian model code to obtain the uncertainty in the net ecosystem productivity

  19. Iranian Economy in the Twentieth Century: A Global Perspective

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Esfahani, H S; Pesaran, M Hashem

    Iranian Economy in the Twentieth Century: A Global Perspective* Hadi Salehi Esfahani, University of Illinois and M. Hashem Pesaran, University of Cambridge and USC March 2008 Abstract This paper examines the economic transformation of Iran... in a global context through the Twentieth Century. At the start of that century, the Iranian economy had long remained stagnant, poor, and largely agrarian, with a marginal role in the world economy. By the turn of 21st century, Iran had transformed...

  20. Globalization and Religion in Historical Perspective: A Paradoxical Relationship

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Herrington, Luke M.

    especially among Buddhists, Christians, and Muslimshave also been integral sources of globalization distinct from economic practices like trade. The following section will present the homogenization thesis, and introduce the subject of the globalization... of completing the journey travel to Mecca, the Muslim holy city, annually after Ramadan. Of course, this is not always feasible, but Muslims are expected to undertake the hajj at least once in their life. The hajj gives Muslims the opportunity to experience...

  1. Understanding Regional Economic Growth in IndiaUnderstanding Regional Economic Growth in India Understanding Regional Economic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Understanding Regional Economic Growth in IndiaUnderstanding Regional Economic Growth in India Understanding Regional Economic Growth in India* Jeffrey D. Sachs Director The Earth Institute at Columbia_ramiah@yahoo.co.uk Asian Economic Papers 1:3 © 2002 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts

  2. The Impact of Nuclear Reaction Rate Uncertainties on Evolutionary Studies of the Nova Outburst

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    W. Raphael Hix; Michael S. Smith; Anthony Mezzacappa; Sumner Starrfield; Donald L. Smith

    2000-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

    The observable consequences of a nova outburst depend sensitively on the details of the thermonuclear runaway which initiates the outburst. One of the more important sources of uncertainty is the nuclear reaction data used as input for the evolutionary calculations. A recent paper by Starrfield, Truran, Wiescher, & Sparks (1998) has demonstrated that changes in the reaction rate library used within a nova simulation have significant effects, not just on the production of individual isotopes (which can change by an order of magnitude), but on global observables such as the peak luminosity and the amount of mass ejected. We present preliminary results of systematic analyses of the impact of reaction rate uncertainties on nova nucleosynthesis.

  3. Penetrator reliability investigation and design exploration : from conventional design processes to innovative uncertainty-capturing algorithms.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martinez-Canales, Monica L.; Heaphy, Robert (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Gramacy, Robert B. (University of Cambridge); Taddy, Matt (University of California, Santa Cruz, CA); Chiesa, Michael L.; Thomas, Stephen W. (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Swiler, Laura Painton (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Hough, Patricia Diane; Lee, Herbert K. H. (University of California, Santa Cruz, CA); Trucano, Timothy Guy (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Gray, Genetha Anne

    2006-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This project focused on research and algorithmic development in optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problems driven by earth penetrator (EP) designs. While taking into account uncertainty, we addressed three challenges in current simulation-based engineering design and analysis processes. The first challenge required leveraging small local samples, already constructed by optimization algorithms, to build effective surrogate models. We used Gaussian Process (GP) models to construct these surrogates. We developed two OUU algorithms using 'local' GPs (OUU-LGP) and one OUU algorithm using 'global' GPs (OUU-GGP) that appear competitive or better than current methods. The second challenge was to develop a methodical design process based on multi-resolution, multi-fidelity models. We developed a Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Auto-regressive process (MF-BAP). The third challenge involved the development of tools that are computational feasible and accessible. We created MATLAB{reg_sign} and initial DAKOTA implementations of our algorithms.

  4. Quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a PWR control rod ejection accident

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pasichnyk, I.; Perin, Y.; Velkov, K. [Gesellschaft flier Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit - GRS mbH, Boltzmannstasse 14, 85748 Garching bei Muenchen (Germany)

    2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The paper describes the results of the quantitative Uncertainty and Sensitivity (U/S) Analysis of a Rod Ejection Accident (REA) which is simulated by the coupled system code ATHLET-QUABOX/CUBBOX applying the GRS tool for U/S analysis SUSA/XSUSA. For the present study, a UOX/MOX mixed core loading based on a generic PWR is modeled. A control rod ejection is calculated for two reactor states: Hot Zero Power (HZP) and 30% of nominal power. The worst cases for the rod ejection are determined by steady-state neutronic simulations taking into account the maximum reactivity insertion in the system and the power peaking factor. For the U/S analysis 378 uncertain parameters are identified and quantified (thermal-hydraulic initial and boundary conditions, input parameters and variations of the two-group cross sections). Results for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are presented for safety important global and local parameters. (authors)

  5. A Framework for Modeling Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the US associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources ...

  6. Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort David.; Forest, Chris Eliot.; Reilly, John M.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Mayer, Monika.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H.; Wang, Chien.

    To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the uncertainty in ...

  7. Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Building Operations and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Building Operations and Weather for a Medium between predicted and actual building energy consumption can be attributed to uncertainties introduced in energy consumption due to actual weather and building operational practices, using a simulation

  8. The Time's Arrow within the Uncertainty Quantum

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhen Wang

    1998-06-22T23:59:59.000Z

    A generalized framework is developed which uses a set description instead of wavefunction to emphasize the role of the observer. Such a framework is found to be very effective in the study of the measurement problem and time's arrow. Measurement in classical and quantum theory is given a unified treatment. With the introduction of the concept of uncertainty quantum which is the basic unit of measurement, we show that the time's arrow within the uncertainty quantum is just opposite to the time's arrow in the observable reality. A special constant is discussed which explains our sensation of time and provides a permanent substrate for all change. It is shown that the whole spacetime connects together in a delicate structure.

  9. Integrated automotive exhaust engineering : uncertainty management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fang, Xitian, 1963-

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The global automotive industry has entered a stagnating period. Automotive OEMs and their tier suppliers are struggling for business growth. One of the most important strategies is to improve the engineering efficiency in ...

  10. Economizer Control Using Mixed Air Enthalpy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feng, J.; Liu, M.; Pang, W.

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    economizer is db-temperature based economizer. Table7. Economizer Operation Testing Period: April.3 rd ~Aug. 22 th ,2007 Temperature- based Economizer Mixed-air enthalpy economizer Operation hours 888 1251 Energy saving - 15.7% 6...

  11. Spectral Representations of Uncertainty: Algorithms and Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    George Em Karniadakis

    2005-04-24T23:59:59.000Z

    The objectives of this project were: (1) Develop a general algorithmic framework for stochastic ordinary and partial differential equations. (2) Set polynomial chaos method and its generalization on firm theoretical ground. (3) Quantify uncertainty in large-scale simulations involving CFD, MHD and microflows. The overall goal of this project was to provide DOE with an algorithmic capability that is more accurate and three to five orders of magnitude more efficient than the Monte Carlo simulation.

  12. Uncertainty estimates for derivatives and intercepts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clark, E.L.

    1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Straight line least squares fits of experimental data are widely used in the analysis of test results to provide derivatives and intercepts. A method for evaluating the uncertainty in these parameters is described. The method utilizes conventional least squares results and is applicable to experiments where the independent variable is controlled, but not necessarily free of error. A Monte Carlo verification of the method is given 7 refs., 2 tabs.

  13. Information-Disturbance theorem and Uncertainty Relation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Takayuki Miyadera; Hideki Imai

    2007-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

    It has been shown that Information-Disturbance theorem can play an important role in security proof of quantum cryptography. The theorem is by itself interesting since it can be regarded as an information theoretic version of uncertainty principle. It, however, has been able to treat restricted situations. In this paper, the restriction on the source is abandoned, and a general information-disturbance theorem is obtained. The theorem relates information gain by Eve with information gain by Bob.

  14. Informatively optimal levels of confidence for mesurement uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    David Kisets

    2011-10-13T23:59:59.000Z

    Oct 13, 2011 ... netvision.net.il) ... "Informatively optimal combining, expanding, and establishing traceability in evaluating measurement uncertainties".

  15. Generalized Uncertainty Principle: Approaches and Applications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel Nasser Tawfik; Abdel Magied Diab

    2014-11-23T23:59:59.000Z

    We review highlights from string theory, black hole physics and doubly special relativity and some "thought" experiments which were suggested to probe the shortest distance and/or the maximum momentum at the Planck scale. The models which are designed to implement the minimal length scale and/or the maximum momentum in different physical systems are analysed entered the literature as the Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP). We compare between them. The existence of a minimal length and a maximum momentum accuracy is preferred by various physical observations. Furthermore, assuming modified dispersion relation allows for a wide range of applications in estimating, for example, the inflationary parameters, Lorentz invariance violation, black hole thermodynamics, Saleker-Wigner inequalities, entropic nature of the gravitational laws, Friedmann equations, minimal time measurement and thermodynamics of the high-energy collisions. One of the higher-order GUP approaches gives predictions for the minimal length uncertainty. Another one predicts a maximum momentum and a minimal length uncertainty, simultaneously. An extensive comparison between the different GUP approaches is summarized. We also discuss the GUP impacts on the equivalence principles including the universality of the gravitational redshift and the free fall and law of reciprocal action and on the kinetic energy of composite system. The concern about the compatibility with the equivalence principles, the universality of gravitational redshift and the free fall and law of reciprocal action should be addressed. We conclude that the value of the GUP parameters remain a puzzle to be verified.

  16. The Gender Ideological Clash in Globalization: Women, Migration, and the Modernization Building Project of the Philippines

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Parreñ as, Rhacel Salazar

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    My article interrogates the local impacts of global economic argue that the development of an export-oriented Filipino economy incorporates a gender ideological clash resulting from simultaneously encouraging and discouraging female domesticity...

  17. Preliminary -November 30, 2010 INNOVATE SYMPOSIUM: Globalization and Technology in China

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wu, Yih-Min

    Preliminary - November 30, 2010 INNOVATE SYMPOSIUM: Globalization and Technology in China examination of economic and technological development and innovation between China and their own home study of factors affecting their respective technology sectors. The INNOVATE itinerary

  18. Sociology 376: Law, Markets and Globalization; Spring 2010 Professor Bruce Carruthers. Office: 1808 Chicago Ave., #203, Evanston Campus; 847-

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bustamante, Fabin E.

    : Cambridge University Press. 2000. Robert Gilpin, The Challenge of Global Capitalism: The World Economy of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy,@ Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 121 Sociology 376: Law, Markets and Globalization; Spring 2010 Professor Bruce Carruthers. Office

  19. 26:478:541 / 26:553:607 Global Political Economy Wednesdays 5:30-8:10 PM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lin, Xiaodong

    26:478:541 / 26:553:607 Global Political Economy Fall 2010 Wednesdays 5:30-8:10 PM Professor Susan economy. In such a world, domestic political and economic dynamics can have global consequences, and events in the global economy can redound to the benefit or detriment of nation states. This course

  20. Volume Rendering Data with Uncertainty Information Suzana Djurcilov

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robinson, Allan R.

    Volume Rendering Data with Uncertainty Information Suzana Djurcilov , Kwansik Kim , Pierre F. J uncertainty information in direct volume rendering. The goal is to produce vol- ume rendered images the uncertainty information directly into the volume rendering equation. The second method involves post

  1. Uncertainty, Performance, and Model Dependency in Approximate Adaptive Nonlinear Control

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Szepesvari, Csaba

    Uncertainty, Performance, and Model Dependency in Approximate Adaptive Nonlinear Control M. French, and the performance of a class of approximate model based adaptive controllers is studied. An upper performance bound uncertainty model; control effort bounds require both L 2 and L 1 uncertainty models), and various structural

  2. Trio: A System for Data, Uncertainty, and Lineage

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bejerano, Gill

    or resolve uncertainty #12;13 Our Goal Develop a new kind of database management system (DBMS) in which: 1. Data 2. Uncertainty 3. Lineage are all first-class interrelated concepts With all the "usual" DBMS a new kind of database management system (DBMS) in which: 1. Data 2. Uncertainty 3. Lineage are all

  3. Economics and LID Practices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    --for both construction budgets and project life-cycle costs. These economic benefits are increasingly being-competitive drainage system was designed for a large retail development in Greenland, NH. F A C T S H E E-based strategies by municipalities, commercial developers, and others. There are increasing numbers of case studies

  4. Economics of ALMR deployment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Delene, J.G.; Fuller, L.C.; Hudson, C.R.

    1994-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    The Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) has the potential to extend the economic life of the nuclear option and of reducing the number of high level waste repositories which will eventually be needed in an expanding nuclear economy. This paper reports on an analysis which models and evaluates the economics of the use of ALMRs as a component of this country`s future electricity generation mix. The ALMR concept has the ability to utilize as fuel the fissile material contained in previously irradiated nuclear fuel (i.e., spent fuel) or from surplus weapons grade material. While not a requirement for the successful deployment of ALMR power plant technology, the reprocessing of spent fuel from light water reactors (LWR) is necessary for any rapid introduction of ALMR power plants. In addition, the reprocessing of LWR spent fuel may reduce the number of high level waste repositories needed in the future by burning the long-lived actinides produced in the fission process. With this study, the relative economics of a number of potential scenarios related to these issues are evaluated. While not encompassing the full range of all possibilities, the cases reported here provide an indication of the potential costs, timings, and relative economic attractiveness of ALMR deployment.

  5. Challenges, uncertainties and issues facing gas production from gas hydrate deposits

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Moridis, G.J.; Collett, T.S.; Pooladi-Darvish, M.; Hancock, S.; Santamarina, C.; Boswell, R.; Kneafsey, T.; Rutqvist, J.; Kowalsky, M.; Reagan, M.T.; Sloan, E.D.; Sum, A.K.; Koh, C.

    2010-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The current paper complements the Moridis et al. (2009) review of the status of the effort toward commercial gas production from hydrates. We aim to describe the concept of the gas hydrate petroleum system, to discuss advances, requirement and suggested practices in gas hydrate (GH) prospecting and GH deposit characterization, and to review the associated technical, economic and environmental challenges and uncertainties, including: the accurate assessment of producible fractions of the GH resource, the development of methodologies for identifying suitable production targets, the sampling of hydrate-bearing sediments and sample analysis, the analysis and interpretation of geophysical surveys of GH reservoirs, well testing methods and interpretation of the results, geomechanical and reservoir/well stability concerns, well design, operation and installation, field operations and extending production beyond sand-dominated GH reservoirs, monitoring production and geomechanical stability, laboratory investigations, fundamental knowledge of hydrate behavior, the economics of commercial gas production from hydrates, and the associated environmental concerns.

  6. On the meaning of feedback parameter, transient climate response, and the greenhouse effect: Basic considerations and the discussion of uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kramm, Gerhard

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper we discuss the meaning of feedback parameter, greenhouse effect and transient climate response usually related to the globally averaged energy balance model of Schneider and Mass. After scrutinizing this model and the corresponding planetary radiation balance we state that (a) the this globally averaged energy balance model is flawed by unsuitable physical considerations, (b) the planetary radiation balance for an Earth in the absence of an atmosphere is fraught by the inappropriate assumption of a uniform surface temperature, the so-called radiative equilibrium temperature of about 255 K, and (c) the effect of the radiative anthropogenic forcing, considered as a perturbation to the natural system, is much smaller than the uncertainty involved in the solution of the model of Schneider and Mass. This uncertainty is mainly related to the empirical constants suggested by various authors and used for predicting the emission of infrared radiation by the Earth's skin. Furthermore, after inserting the ...

  7. Design Editorial Globalization and Internationalism

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Papalambros, Panos

    ; especially, the development of an increasingly integrated global economy marked especially by free tradeJournal of Mechanical Design Editorial Globalization and Internationalism There has always been and Strabo, but to Friedman's empirical observations of globalization. According to Wikipedia, "globalization

  8. A Bayesian approach to simultaneously quantify assignments and linguistic uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [BOOKER SCIENTIFIC FREDERICKSBURG; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

    2010-10-07T23:59:59.000Z

    Subject matter expert assessments can include both assignment and linguistic uncertainty. This paper examines assessments containing linguistic uncertainty associated with a qualitative description of a specific state of interest and the assignment uncertainty associated with assigning a qualitative value to that state. A Bayesian approach is examined to simultaneously quantify both assignment and linguistic uncertainty in the posterior probability. The approach is applied to a simplified damage assessment model involving both assignment and linguistic uncertainty. The utility of the approach and the conditions under which the approach is feasible are examined and identified.

  9. Methodology for characterizing modeling and discretization uncertainties in computational simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    ALVIN,KENNETH F.; OBERKAMPF,WILLIAM L.; RUTHERFORD,BRIAN M.; DIEGERT,KATHLEEN V.

    2000-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This research effort focuses on methodology for quantifying the effects of model uncertainty and discretization error on computational modeling and simulation. The work is directed towards developing methodologies which treat model form assumptions within an overall framework for uncertainty quantification, for the purpose of developing estimates of total prediction uncertainty. The present effort consists of work in three areas: framework development for sources of uncertainty and error in the modeling and simulation process which impact model structure; model uncertainty assessment and propagation through Bayesian inference methods; and discretization error estimation within the context of non-deterministic analysis.

  10. Uncertainty Budget Analysis for Dimensional Inspection Processes (U)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valdez, Lucas M. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper is intended to provide guidance and describe how to prepare an uncertainty analysis of a dimensional inspection process through the utilization of an uncertainty budget analysis. The uncertainty analysis is stated in the same methodology as that of the ISO GUM standard for calibration and testing. There is a specific distinction between how Type A and Type B uncertainty analysis is used in a general and specific process. All theory and applications are utilized to represent both a generalized approach to estimating measurement uncertainty and how to report and present these estimations for dimensional measurements in a dimensional inspection process. The analysis of this uncertainty budget shows that a well-controlled dimensional inspection process produces a conservative process uncertainty, which can be attributed to the necessary assumptions in place for best possible results.

  11. GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE WORKING PAPER NO. 09-03

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tufts University

    poverty. Potential steps towards a more responsible, "strongly objective," and policy-useful economics are discussed. Keywords: economics, ethics, policy, methodology, climate change, financial crisis, poverty and broadly, the persistent issue of global poverty and inequality, recent addressed in popular writings

  12. Climate change and the socioeconomics of global food production: A quantitative analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rambaut, Andrew

    1 Climate change and the socioeconomics of global food production: A quantitative analysis of how, Andrew J. Dougill and Piers M. Forster August 2010 Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper No. 29 #12;2 The Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) was established

  13. Taught degrees Graduate Diploma in Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sussex, University of

    Essentials Taught degrees Graduate Diploma in Economics MSc in Development Economics MSc in Economics MSc in International Economics Research degrees MPhil, PhD in Economics Related degrees MSc in a subject other than economics or a lower second-class undergraduate degree in economics MSc A first

  14. Faculty of Social Sciences School of Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hammerton, Paul

    Faculty of Social Sciences School of Economics Postgraduate Courses Winner Whatuni.com Student Choice Awards #12;Contents 01 Welcome to the School of Economics 02 Why Study Economics at the University Economics 07 MSc Finance and Economics 08 MSc Industrial Economics 09 MSc Experimental Economics 10 MSc

  15. Refund for Economic Development (Texas)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Refund for Economic Development under the Tax Code for state tax refunds for economic development. Some Texas property owners may be eligible to receive refunds of state sales and use taxes and...

  16. Energy Prices and California's Economic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sadoulet, Elisabeth

    1 Energy Prices and California's Economic Security David RolandHolst October, 2009 on Energy Prices, Renewables, Efficiency, and Economic Growth: Scenarios and Forecasts, financial support drivers, the course of fossil fuel energy prices, energy efficiency trends, and renewable energy

  17. Economics of Steam Pressure Reduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sylva, D. M.

    Economics of Steam Pressure Reduction is a technical paper that addresses the operating and economic advantages associated with the program to lower the steam operating pressure. Evaluation of a testing program will be discussed. The paper...

  18. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Research West Virginia University College of Business and Economics P.O. Box 6527, Morgantown, WV 26506 EXPERT OPINION PROVIDED BY Keith Burdette Cabinet Secretary West Virginia Department of Commerce

  19. Global Electricity Technology Substitution Model with Induced Technological Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Watson, Andrew

    of E3MG. As opposed to traditional energy models based on cost optimisation procedures, it focuses, and it is difficult to model the energy sector without including its interactions with global economic activity. E3MGGlobal Electricity Technology Substitution Model with Induced Technological Change Jean

  20. Securing the Sustainability of Global Medical Nuclear Supply Chains

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Securing the Sustainability of Global Medical Nuclear Supply Chains Through Economic Cost Recovery-17, 2012 University of Massachusetts Amherst Securing the Sustainability of Medical Nuclear Supply Chains-2013. University of Massachusetts Amherst Securing the Sustainability of Medical Nuclear Supply Chains #12;This

  1. Global Environmental Governance Series Editor: John J. Kirton

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Colorado at Boulder, University of

    , and political governance, the series explores the role of international institutions and instruments, national, national, and global levels. Centred on the relationships among environmental change, economic forcesHR USA England Ashgate website: http://www.ashgate.com British Library Cataloguing in Publication

  2. The Global Energy Challenge and Possible Solu6ons

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rubloff, Gary W.

    in a Petroleum Context Marginal Conven6onal Oil Oil Shale #12;GLOBAL FUEL RESERVES Source demand vs. GDP per capita Economic Prosperity Energy Use #12;OIL SUPPLY COST CURVE #12;20 40 60 80 100 112 Venezuela Heavy Oil Deep Water Arc6c Sugarcane Et

  3. Measurement uncertainty in surface flatness measurement

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    H. L. Thang

    2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

    Flatness of a plate is a parameter has been put under consideration for long time. Factors influencing the accuracy of this parameter have been recognized and examined carefully but placed scatterringly. Beside that those reports have not been always in harmonization with Guide for expression of uncertainty measurement (GUM). Furthermore, mathematical equations describing clearly the flatness measurement have not been seen in those reports also. We have collected those influencing factors for systematic reference purpose, re-written the equation describing the profile measurement of the plate topography, and proposed an equation for flatness determination. An illustrative numerical example will be also shown.

  4. Economical Condensing Turbines?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dean, J. E.

    Economical Condensing Turbines? by J.E.Dean, P.E. Steam turbines have long been used at utilities and in industry to generate power. There are three basic types of steam turbines: condensing, letdown 1 and extraction/condensing. ? Letdown... turbines reduce the pressure of the incoming steam to one or more pressures and generate power very efficiently, assuming that all the letdown steam has a use. Two caveats: ? Letdown turbines produce power based upon steam requirements and not based upon...

  5. Agricultural and Resource Economics Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carter, Colin A.; Novan, Kevin; Rausser, Gordon; Iho, Antti; Parker, Doug; Zilberman, David

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Agricultural Economics University of California Animal WasteAgricultural and Food Markets Gordon Rausser..4 Animal Waste

  6. Uncertainties propagation in the framework of a Rod Ejection Accident modeling based on a multi-physics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Le Pallec, J. C.; Crouzet, N.; Bergeaud, V.; Delavaud, C. [CEA/DEN/DM2S, CEA/Saclay, 91191 Gif sur Yvette Cedex (France)

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The control of uncertainties in the field of reactor physics and their propagation in best-estimate modeling are a major issue in safety analysis. In this framework, the CEA develops a methodology to perform multi-physics simulations including uncertainties analysis. The present paper aims to present and apply this methodology for the analysis of an accidental situation such as REA (Rod Ejection Accident). This accident is characterized by a strong interaction between the different areas of the reactor physics (neutronic, fuel thermal and thermal hydraulic). The modeling is performed with CRONOS2 code. The uncertainties analysis has been conducted with the URANIE platform developed by the CEA: For each identified response from the modeling (output) and considering a set of key parameters with their uncertainties (input), a surrogate model in the form of a neural network has been produced. The set of neural networks is then used to carry out a sensitivity analysis which consists on a global variance analysis with the determination of the Sobol indices for all responses. The sensitivity indices are obtained for the input parameters by an approach based on the use of polynomial chaos. The present exercise helped to develop a methodological flow scheme, to consolidate the use of URANIE tool in the framework of parallel calculations. Finally, the use of polynomial chaos allowed computing high order sensitivity indices and thus highlighting and classifying the influence of identified uncertainties on each response of the analysis (single and interaction effects). (authors)

  7. Automouse: An improvement to the mouse computerized uncertainty analysis system operational manual

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Klee, A.J.

    1992-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Under a mandate of national environmental laws, the agency strives to formulate and implement actions leading to a compatible balance between human activities and the ability of natural systems to support and nurture life. The Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory is responsible for planning, implementing, and managing research development, and demonstration programs to provide an authoritative, defensible engineering basis in support of the policies, programs, and regulations of the EPA with respect to drinking water, wastewater, pesticides, toxic substances, solid and hazardous wastes, and Superfund-related activities. The publication is one of the products of that research and provides a vital communication link between the researcher and the user community. The manual describes a system, called MOUSE (for Modular Oriented Uncertainty SystEm), for dealing with the computational problems of uncertainty, specifically in models that consist of a set of one or more equations. Since such models are frequently encountered in the fields of environmental science, risk analysis, economics, and engineering, the system has broad application throughout these fields. An important part of the MOUSE system is AutoMOUSE which actually writes the computer programs required for the uncertainty analysis computations. Thus, no prior programming knowledge is needed to learn or use MOUSE and, because of its transportability and compactness, the system can be run on a wide variety of personal computers available to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and/or its contractors and grantees.

  8. Solar Irradiances Measured using SPN1 Radiometers: Uncertainties and Clues for Development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Badosa, Jordi; Wood, John; Blanc, Philippe; Long, Charles N.; Vuilleumier, Laurent; Demengel, Dominique; Haeffelin, Martial

    2014-12-08T23:59:59.000Z

    The fast development of solar radiation and energy applications, such as photovoltaic and solar thermodynamic systems, has increased the need for solar radiation measurement and monitoring, not only for the global component but also the diffuse and direct. End users look for the best compromise between getting close to state-of-the-art measurements and keeping capital, maintenance and operating costs to a minimum. Among the existing commercial options, SPN1 is a relatively low cost solar radiometer that estimates global and diffuse solar irradiances from seven thermopile sensors under a shading mask and without moving parts. This work presents a comprehensive study of SPN1 accuracy and sources of uncertainty, which results from laboratory experiments, numerical modeling and comparison studies between measurements from this sensor and state-of-the art instruments for six diverse sites. Several clues are provided for improving the SPN1 accuracy and agreement with state-of-the-art measurements.

  9. IEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    IEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board Kenneth L. Casavant, Chair Roger Mann, Vice-Chair Joel R of Independent Economic Analysis Board's Activities and Contributions to NPPC Fish and Wildlife Planning document of achieving the same sound biological objective exist, the alternative with the minimum economic cost

  10. Economic Sustainability and Ecological Compatibility

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Economic Sustainability and Ecological Compatibility: Where is the room to move? October 21st - 22: Economic Sustainability and Ecological Compatibility: Where is the room to move? October 21st - 22nd , 2010, Economic Sustainability: Room to Move? Workshop Hosted by Colorado Forest Restoration Institute Walden

  11. IEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    IEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board Daniel D. Huppert, Chair Lon L. Peters, Vice-Chair Joel R. Hamilton Kenneth L. Casavant Jack A. Richards Roger Mann Paul C. Sorensen Hans Radtke Economic Review of Instream Water Supply Components of the Salmon Creek Project Independent Economic Analysis Board Northwest

  12. IEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    IEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board Roger Mann, Chair Noelwah R. Netusil, Vice-Chair Kenneth L. Casavant Daniel D. Huppert Joel R. Hamilton Lon L. Peters Susan S. Hanna Hans Radtke A I - 1 Economic Effects From Columbia River Basin Anadromous Salmonid Fish Production Independent Economic Analysis Board

  13. IEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    IEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board Hans Radtke, Chair Roger Mann, Vice-Chair Daniel D. Huppert Joel R. Hamilton Susan S. Hanna John Duffield Noelwah R. Netusil Independent Economic Analysis Board Task Number 139 Integrated Hatchery Operations: Fish and Wildlife Program Costs and Other Economic

  14. IEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    IEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board Kenneth L. Casavant, Chair Roger Mann, Vice-Chair Joel R Application of the IEAB's Recommendations and Guidance for Economic Analysis in Subbasin Planning improvements related to economic content of the draft Clearwater Subbasin Management Plan (the draft Clearwater

  15. Assessment Report Department of Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bogaerts, Steven

    1 Assessment Report Department of Economics August, 2012 Mission Statement The mission of the Economics Department is to impart knowledge, to both majors and non- majors, about the methods, core theory. Relation to the University at Large Economics is an important part of a liberal arts education because

  16. Assessment Report Department of Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bogaerts, Steven

    1 Assessment Report Department of Economics September, 2009 Mission Statement The mission of the Economics Department is to impart knowledge, to both majors and non-majors, about the methods, core theory discipline. Relation to the University at Large Economics is an important part of a liberal arts education

  17. Hassan BENCHEKROUN Department of Economics,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barthelat, Francois

    1 Hassan BENCHEKROUN Department of Economics, McGill University 855 Sherbrooke West, Montreal, QC University, Jan. 98-May 99. EDUCATION Sep. 1993 - Apr. 1998: Ph.D. in Economics, Université Laval Jan. 1993-2013) and Co-Editor (2013-) of Environmental and Resource Economics. Official journal of the European

  18. Economic Architecture and Sustainable Communities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hall, Sharon J.

    Economic Architecture and Sustainable Communities Wednesday, January 30, 2013 12:00 ­ 1:30 p and investment conditions during the sustainability movement. Join scientist and Green Sense radio show host Robert Colangelo and author and economic developer Mark Lautman to discuss how economic architecture

  19. March 2012 Pittsburgh Economic Quarterly

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sibille, Etienne

    of brownfield sites has been a historically popular tool for economic devel- opment for states and municipalities. Prior to redevelop- ment, brownfields create economic and ecological stress on surrounding and contributed to its brownfield status act as barriers to entry for community investment and economic activity

  20. Privatization and the globalization of energy markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report reviews recent global efforts to privatize energy resources and outlines the opportunities and challenges privatization has presented to U.S. and foreign multinational energy companies. The group of energy companies studied in this report includes the major U.S. petroleum companies and many foreign companies. The foreign companies reviewed include state-run energy enterprises, recently privatized energy enterprises, and foreign multinationals that have been privately held. The privatization of non-petroleum energy industries, such as electricity generation and transmission, natural gas transmission, and coal mining, are also discussed. Overseas investments made by electric companies, natural gas companies, and coal companies are included. The report is organized into six chapters: (1) economics of privatization; (2) petroleum privatization efforts among non-U.S. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development nations; (3) petroleum privatization efforts in Latin America; (4) privatization in socialist and former socialist regimes; (5) privatization efforts in global electric power generation, transmission, and distribution industries; and (6) privatization and globalization of world coal.

  1. Essays in Public Economics and Development

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gerard, Francois

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    but only economic incentives (kWh) Simulations: totargets through economic incentives is often consideredtargets through economic incentives (e.g. , prices) is often

  2. Advanced Coal Wind Hybrid: Economic Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Phadke, Amol

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Coal Wind Hybrid: Economic Analysis additional cost of fuelWind Hybrid: Economic Analysis Levelized Generation CostCoal Wind Hybrid: Economic Analysis Notes: All Cost are in

  3. Essays in Psychological and Political Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tasoff, Joshua David

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    per share, Journal of Accounting and Economics, 1999, 28,Bagwell, Kyle, The Economics of Advertising: Introduction,Strategy, Journal of Economics and Management Strategy,

  4. Engineering the global ecosystem

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stringfellow, William T.; Jain, Ravi

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of humans deliberately engineering agricultural landscapes.010-0302-8 EDITORIAL Engineering the global ecosystemtale about human explorers engineering the ecosystem of Mars

  5. Sedimentation and the economics of selecting an optimum reservoir size

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miltz, D.; White, D.C.

    1987-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    An easily reproducible methodology is presented for the economic selection of an optimal reservoir size given an annual sedimentation rate. The optimal capacity is that at which the marginal cost of constructing additional storage capacity is equal to the dredging costs avoided by having that additional capacity available to store sediment. The cost implications of misestimating dredging costs, construction costs, and sediment delivery rates are investigated. In general, it is shown that oversizing is a rational response to uncertainty in the estimation of parameters. The sensitivity of the results to alternative discount rates is also discussed. The theoretical discussion is illustrated with a case study drawn from Highland Silver Lake in southwestern Illinois.

  6. Economics of Alaska North Slope gas utilization options

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, C.P.; Doughty, T.C.; Hackworth, J.H.; North, W.B.; Robertson, E.P.

    1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The recoverable natural gas available for sale in the developed and known undeveloped fields on the Alaskan North Slope (ANS) total about 26 trillion cubic feet (TCF), including 22 TCF in the Prudhoe Bay Unit (PBU) and 3 TCF in the undeveloped Point Thomson Unit (PTU). No significant commercial use has been made of this large natural gas resource because there are no facilities in place to transport this gas to current markets. To date the economics have not been favorable to support development of a gas transportation system. However, with the declining trend in ANS oil production, interest in development of this huge gas resource is rising, making it important for the U.S. Department of Energy, industry, and the State of Alaska to evaluate and assess the options for development of this vast gas resource. The purpose of this study was to assess whether gas-to-liquids (GTL) conversion technology would be an economic alternative for the development and sale of the large, remote, and currently unmarketable ANS natural gas resource, and to compare the long term economic impact of a GTL conversion option to that of the more frequently discussed natural gas pipeline/liquefied natural gas (LNG) option. The major components of the study are: an assessment of the ANS oil and gas resources; an analysis of conversion and transportation options; a review of natural gas, LNG, and selected oil product markets; and an economic analysis of the LNG and GTL gas sales options based on publicly available input needed for assumptions of the economic variables. Uncertainties in assumptions are evaluated by determining the sensitivity of project economics to changes in baseline economic variables.

  7. Crop water stress under climate change uncertainty : global policy and regional risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gueneau, Arthur

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Fourty percent of all crops grown in the world today are grown using irrigation, and shifting precipitation patterns due to climate change are viewed as a major threat to food security. This thesis examines, in the framework ...

  8. Petrochemical industry in the Middle East: current status, uncertainties, global impact

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The situation and perspective of the petrochemical industry in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, IR Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, SP Libyan AJ, Algeria, and Egypt are reviewed. Special attention is given to the budgetary constraints, foreign partners, the costs, the markets, and the impact of falling oil prices.

  9. Uncertainty evaluation in transition temperature measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brillaud, C. [Electricite de France, Avoine (France); Augendre, H. [Electricite de France, Clamart (France); Bethmont, M. [Electricite de France, Ecuelles (France)

    1996-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    The pressure vessel surveillance program is mainly based on the transition temperature change assessment, a change which is induced by neutron irradiation. Uncertainties in Charpy test measurements are well known; however, the authors are less familiar with uncertainties due to general procedures governing experiments, which can be significant and therefore must be taken into account. In fact, procedures specify neither the number of specimens needed to obtain a transition curve, nor the choice of test temperatures, nor the fitting method for the transition curve. A study has been conducted to determine the influence of the experimental procedure on the accuracy of transition temperature determination, and the initial results are presented in this paper. Two EDF laboratories performed Charpy tests on the surveillance program reference metal, using 8, 16, 24, 32 and 64 specimens to evaluate how the number of specimens affects the transition temperature. The influence of the scatter of mechanical properties has also been studied at two levels of irradiation. The authors have evaluated the effect of different sampling strategies and investigated a new fitting method, which is based on a simultaneous fitting of all curves with common constraints on parameters.

  10. Uncertainty Analysis Technique for OMEGA Dante Measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    May, M J; Widmann, K; Sorce, C; Park, H; Schneider, M

    2010-05-07T23:59:59.000Z

    The Dante is an 18 channel X-ray filtered diode array which records the spectrally and temporally resolved radiation flux from various targets (e.g. hohlraums, etc.) at X-ray energies between 50 eV to 10 keV. It is a main diagnostics installed on the OMEGA laser facility at the Laboratory for Laser Energetics, University of Rochester. The absolute flux is determined from the photometric calibration of the X-ray diodes, filters and mirrors and an unfold algorithm. Understanding the errors on this absolute measurement is critical for understanding hohlraum energetic physics. We present a new method for quantifying the uncertainties on the determined flux using a Monte-Carlo parameter variation technique. This technique combines the uncertainties in both the unfold algorithm and the error from the absolute calibration of each channel into a one sigma Gaussian error function. One thousand test voltage sets are created using these error functions and processed by the unfold algorithm to produce individual spectra and fluxes. Statistical methods are applied to the resultant set of fluxes to estimate error bars on the measurements.

  11. Uncertainty quantification in reacting flow modeling.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Le Maitre, Olivier P. (Universite d'Evry Val d'Essonne, Evry, France); Reagan, Matthew T.; Knio, Omar M. (Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD); Ghanem, Roger Georges (Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD); Najm, Habib N.

    2003-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the computational modeling of physical systems is important for scientific investigation, engineering design, and model validation. In this work we develop techniques for UQ based on spectral and pseudo-spectral polynomial chaos (PC) expansions, and we apply these constructions in computations of reacting flow. We develop and compare both intrusive and non-intrusive spectral PC techniques. In the intrusive construction, the deterministic model equations are reformulated using Galerkin projection into a set of equations for the time evolution of the field variable PC expansion mode strengths. The mode strengths relate specific parametric uncertainties to their effects on model outputs. The non-intrusive construction uses sampling of many realizations of the original deterministic model, and projects the resulting statistics onto the PC modes, arriving at the PC expansions of the model outputs. We investigate and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each approach, and identify their utility under different conditions. We also outline areas where ongoing and future research are needed to address challenges with both approaches.

  12. Nuclear energy density functionals: what we can learn about/from their global performance?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Afanasjev, A V; Ray, D; Ring, P

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A short review of recent results on the global performance of covariant energy density functionals is presented. It is focused on the analysis of the accuracy of the description of physical observables of ground and excited states as well as to related theoretical uncertainties. In addition, a global analysis of pairing properties is presented and the impact of pairing on the position of two-neutron drip line is discussed.

  13. Nuclear energy density functionals: what we can learn about/from their global performance?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A. V. Afanasjev; S. E. Agbemava; D. Ray; P. Ring

    2015-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

    A short review of recent results on the global performance of covariant energy density functionals is presented. It is focused on the analysis of the accuracy of the description of physical observables of ground and excited states as well as to related theoretical uncertainties. In addition, a global analysis of pairing properties is presented and the impact of pairing on the position of two-neutron drip line is discussed.

  14. Nuclear energy density functionals: What we can learn about/from their global performance?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Afanasjev, A. V.; Agbemava, S. E.; Ray, D. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Mississippi State University, MS 39762 (United States); Ring, P. [Fakultt fr Physik, Technische Universitt Mnchen, D-85748 Garching (Germany)

    2014-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

    A short review of recent results on the global performance of covariant energy density functionals is presented. It is focused on an analysis of the accuracy of the description of physical observables of ground and excited states as well as to related theoretical uncertainties. In addition, a global analysis of pairing properties is presented and the impact of pairing on the position of two-neutron drip line is discussed.

  15. DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hickman, Mark

    the relationship between crude oil price and six global fertilizer prices. Weekly data for 2003-2008 for the seven in the crude oil price and global fertilizer prices. As volatility invokes financial risk, the relationship CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices Ping-Yu Chen, Chia

  16. The Interdisciplinary Global Change Curriculum

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Case study modules Population growth Natural resource management Environmental law Economic incentives's biota Energy Sustainable development Environmental justice Economic indicators GIS spatial analysis (Arc

  17. Globalization: Ecological Consequences of Global-Scale Connectivity in People,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    11 Globalization: Ecological Consequences of Global-Scale Connectivity in People, Resources of the global mineral aerosol load (Tanaka & Chiba, 2006). #12;The Systemic Dimension of Globalization212 of Agriculture ­ Agricultural Research Service, Las Cruces, New Mexico USA 1. Introduction Globalization

  18. global warming's six americas

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haller, Gary L.

    Energy Sources 17 Subsidies for Fossil Fuel and Renewable Energy Industries 18 Support for a Carbon Tax and Costs of Reducing Fossil Fuel Use and Global Warming 8 The Alarmed 9 The Concerned 10 The Cautious 11 the spring and fall of 2012. Perceived Benefits and Costs of Reducing Fossil Fuel Use and Global Warming

  19. Global Change Sustainability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tipple, Brett

    Global Change and Sustainability Center The GCSC is an inclusionary and interdisciplinary hub that promotes, coordinates, and conducts local to global environmental- and sustainability-related research to complex environmental and sustainability issues and challenges. 2012 Annual Report #12;1GCSC 2012 ANNUAL

  20. Global Development Our Responsibility

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of expertise cover urgent global issues such as food production, energy supply, climate change, biodiversity e ort to address urgent global issues particularly a ecting developing countries e.g. climate change of Communication, 2012 · Project Leader: Karin Nilsson · Graphic Design: Viktor Wrange & Michael Kvick Cover Photo

  1. CHILLING CONSIDERATIONS GLOBAL WARMING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schwartz, Stephen E.

    (millionsofsquarekilometers) 30 20 10 MELTING OF GREENLAND ICE CAP Satellite determination of maximum extent of glacial melt Complete melt of the Greenland ice sheet would raise the level of the global ocean 23 feet. ASAN Steffen IS INCREASING Global carbon dioxide concentration over the last thousand years Polar ice cores #12;Mann et al

  2. Analysis of uncertainties in CRAC2 calculations: the inhalation pathway

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Killough, G.G.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.

    1984-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    CRAC2 is a computer code for estimating the health effects and economic costs that might result from a release of radioactivity from a nuclear reactor to the environment. This paper describes tests of sensitivity of the predicted health effects to uncertainties in parameters associated with inhalation of the released radionuclides. These parameters are the particle size of the carrier aerosol and, for each element in the release, the clearance parameters for the lung model on which the code's dose conversion factors for inhalation are based. CRAC2 uses hourly meteorological data and a straight-line Gaussian plume model to predict the transport of airborne radioactivity; it includes models for plume depletion and population evacuation, and data for the distributions of population and land use. The code can compute results for single weather sequences, or it can perform random sampling of weather sequences from the meteorological data file and compute results for each weather sequence in the sample. For the work described in this paper, we concentrated on three fixed weather sequences that represent a range of conditions. For each fixed weather sequence, we applied random sampling to joint distributions of the inhalation parameters in order to estimate the sensitivity of the predicted health effects. All sampling runs produced coefficients of variation that were less than 50%, but some differences of means between weather sequences were substantial, as were some differences between means and the corresponding CRAC2 results without random sampling. Early injuries showed differences of as much as 1 to 2 orders of magnitude, while the differences in early fatalities were less than a factor of 2. Latent cancer fatalities varied by less than 10%. 19 references, 6 figures, 3 tables.

  3. Uncertainty in Resilience to Climate Change in India and Indian States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

    2008-10-03T23:59:59.000Z

    This study builds on an earlier analysis of resilience of India and Indian states to climate change. The previous study (Brenkert and Malone 2005) assessed current resilience; this research uses the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) to project resilience to 2095 and to perform an uncertainty analysis on the deterministic results. Projections utilized two SRES-based scenarios, one with fast-and-high growth, one with delayed growth. A detailed comparison of two states, the Punjab and Orissa, points to the kinds of insights that can be obtained using the VRIM. The scenarios differ most significantly in the timing of the uncertainty in economic prosperity (represented by GDP per capita) as a major factor in explaining the uncertainty in the resilience index. In the fast-and-high growth scenario the states differ most markedly regarding the role of ecosystem sensitivity, land use and water availability. The uncertainty analysis shows, for example, that resilience in the Punjab might be enhanced, especially in the delayed growth scenario, if early attention is paid to the impact of ecosystems sensitivity on environmental well-being of the state. By the same token, later in the century land-use pressures might be avoided if land is managed through intensification rather than extensification of agricultural land. Thus, this methodology illustrates how a policy maker can be informed about where to focus attention on specific issues, by understanding the potential changes at a specific location and time and, thus, what might yield desired outcomes. Model results can point to further analyses of the potential for resilience-building.

  4. Economics of Grade Reduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neff, Paul J.

    1914-02-10T23:59:59.000Z

    Fig. C - Curves of Moan Effective Pressure.... Follows Page No. 201 Fig. D - Speed Factor Curves --Follows Pago No. 203 Fig. E - Curves of M.E.P. Compound Engines.... --Follows page Ho. 208 Fig. G - Typical Profile Showing Velocity Grades... #84 of A. R. E. A. Mr* A* M. Wellington-Book-"Railway Location.* Mr. G. R. Henderson-Book-"Locomotive Operation." Prof. &* Webb-Book-"Economics of Railroad Con- struction* Mr. Edward C. SchmIdt~"FreIght Train Resistance*" Published as University...

  5. Economic Development - SRSCRO

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOnItem NotEnergy,ARMFormsGasRelease Date:research community -- hostedEconomic

  6. Conflict Between Economic

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOEThe Bonneville Power Administration would like submitCollector/ReceiverConflict Between Economic Growth and

  7. Capturing Data Uncertainty in High-Volume Stream Processing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Diao, Yanlei; Liu, Anna; Peng, Liping; Sutton, Charles; Tran, Thanh; Zink, Michael

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We present the design and development of a data stream system that captures data uncertainty from data collection to query processing to final result generation. Our system focuses on data that is naturally modeled as continuous random variables. For such data, our system employs an approach grounded in probability and statistical theory to capture data uncertainty and integrates this approach into high-volume stream processing. The first component of our system captures uncertainty of raw data streams from sensing devices. Since such raw streams can be highly noisy and may not carry sufficient information for query processing, our system employs probabilistic models of the data generation process and stream-speed inference to transform raw data into a desired format with an uncertainty metric. The second component captures uncertainty as data propagates through query operators. To efficiently quantify result uncertainty of a query operator, we explore a variety of techniques based on probability and statisti...

  8. Incorporating uncertainty in RADTRAN 6.0 input files.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dennis, Matthew L.; Weiner, Ruth F.; Heames, Terence John (Alion Science and Technology)

    2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainty may be introduced into RADTRAN analyses by distributing input parameters. The MELCOR Uncertainty Engine (Gauntt and Erickson, 2004) has been adapted for use in RADTRAN to determine the parameter shape and minimum and maximum of the distribution, to sample on the distribution, and to create an appropriate RADTRAN batch file. Coupling input parameters is not possible in this initial application. It is recommended that the analyst be very familiar with RADTRAN and able to edit or create a RADTRAN input file using a text editor before implementing the RADTRAN Uncertainty Analysis Module. Installation of the MELCOR Uncertainty Engine is required for incorporation of uncertainty into RADTRAN. Gauntt and Erickson (2004) provides installation instructions as well as a description and user guide for the uncertainty engine.

  9. Contact Information College of Business and Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barrash, Warren

    Contact Information College of Business and Economics Center for Business Research and Economic Research and Economic Development Center What's your challenge? We help businesses and organizations can lie in Accountancy, Economics, Information Technology and Supply Chain Management, International

  10. Survey and Evaluate Uncertainty Quantification Methodologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin, Guang; Engel, David W.; Eslinger, Paul W.

    2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a partnership among national laboratories, industry and academic institutions that will develop and deploy state-of-the-art computational modeling and simulation tools to accelerate the commercialization of carbon capture technologies from discovery to development, demonstration, and ultimately the widespread deployment to hundreds of power plants. The CCSI Toolset will provide end users in industry with a comprehensive, integrated suite of scientifically validated models with uncertainty quantification, optimization, risk analysis and decision making capabilities. The CCSI Toolset will incorporate commercial and open-source software currently in use by industry and will also develop new software tools as necessary to fill technology gaps identified during execution of the project. The CCSI Toolset will (1) enable promising concepts to be more quickly identified through rapid computational screening of devices and processes; (2) reduce the time to design and troubleshoot new devices and processes; (3) quantify the technical risk in taking technology from laboratory-scale to commercial-scale; and (4) stabilize deployment costs more quickly by replacing some of the physical operational tests with virtual power plant simulations. The goal of CCSI is to deliver a toolset that can simulate the scale-up of a broad set of new carbon capture technologies from laboratory scale to full commercial scale. To provide a framework around which the toolset can be developed and demonstrated, we will focus on three Industrial Challenge Problems (ICPs) related to carbon capture technologies relevant to U.S. pulverized coal (PC) power plants. Post combustion capture by solid sorbents is the technology focus of the initial ICP (referred to as ICP A). The goal of the uncertainty quantification (UQ) task (Task 6) is to provide a set of capabilities to the user community for the quantification of uncertainties associated with the carbon capture processes. As such, we will develop, as needed and beyond existing capabilities, a suite of robust and efficient computational tools for UQ to be integrated into a CCSI UQ software framework.

  11. Agricultural and Resource Economics Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    global commodity prices, oil price shocks, wages, and pricesof fuel. A continued rise in the price of oil combined with

  12. High school students' perceptions of and attitudes toward globalization: an analysis of international baccalaureate students in Estado de Mexico, Mexico, and Texas, U.S.A.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brown, Jennifer Gayle

    2007-04-25T23:59:59.000Z

    . Economic, political, and cultural theories have emphasized world economic restructuring via the internationalization of trade and 4 division of labor, changing (often disintegrating) roles of the nation-state, and world- wide cultural movements..., sociology, and anthropology have made tremendous contributions to globalization theories. Economic scholarship has focused on the global economy and neoliberal policies supporting free trade. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between Mexico...

  13. Global Warming and Caspian Sea Level Fluctuations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ardakanian, Reza

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Coastal regions have a high social, economical and environmental importance. Due to this importance the sea level fluctuations can have many bad consequences. In this research the correlation between the increasing trend of temperature in coastal stations due to Global Warming and the Caspian Sea level has been established. The Caspian Sea level data has been received from the Jason-1 satellite. It was resulted that the monthly correlation between the temperature and sea level is high and also positive and almost the same for all the stations. But the yearly correlation was negative. It means that the sea level has decreased by the increase in temperature.

  14. UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION OF AVAILABLE ENERGY AND POWER

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jon P. Christophersen; John L. Morrison

    2006-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Idaho National Laboratory does extensive testing and evaluation of advanced technology batteries and ultracapacitors for applications in electric and hybrid vehicles. The testing is essentially acquiring time records of voltage, current and temperature from a variety of charge and discharge time profiles. From these three basic measured parameters, a complex assortment of derived parameters (resistance, power, etc.) is computed. Derived parameters are in many cases functions of multiple layers of other derived parameters that eventually work back to the three basic measured parameters. The purpose of this paper is to document the methodology used for the uncertainty analysis of the most complicated derived parameters broadly grouped as available energy and available power. This work is an analytical derivation. Future work will report the implementation of algorithms based upon this effort.

  15. Generalized uncertainty principle and black hole thermodynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sunandan Gangopadhyay; Abhijit Dutta; Anirban Saha

    2014-01-08T23:59:59.000Z

    We study the Schwarzschild and Reissner-Nordstr\\"{o}m black hole thermodynamics using the simplest form of the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP) proposed in the literature. The expressions for the mass-temperature relation, heat capacity and entropy are obtained in both cases from which the critical and remnant masses are computed. Our results are exact and reveal that these masses are identical and larger than the so called singular mass for which the thermodynamics quantities become ill-defined. The expression for the entropy reveals the well known area theorem in terms of the horizon area in both cases upto leading order corrections from GUP. The area theorem written in terms of a new variable which can be interpreted as the reduced horizon area arises only when the computation is carried out to the next higher order correction from GUP.

  16. Engineering the global ecosystem

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stringfellow, William T.; Jain, Ravi

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    wetlands has negative impacts on ecosystem services (i.e. ,economically quanti?able ecosystem bene?ts, such as rechargeincluded the loss of natural ecosystem functions and their

  17. Can Advances in Science and Technology Prevent Global Warming? A Critical Review of Limitations and Challenges

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huesemann, Michael H.

    2006-07-03T23:59:59.000Z

    The most stringent emission scenarios published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would result in the stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) at concentrations of approximately 550 ppm which would produce a global temperature increase of at least 2 C by 2100. Given the large uncertainties regarding the potential risks associated with this degree of global warming, it would be more prudent to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations at or below current levels which, in turn, would require a greater than 20-fold reduction (i.e., ?95%) in per capita carbon emissions in industrialized nations within the next 50 to 100 years. Using the Kaya equation as a conceptual framework, this paper examines whether CO2 mitigation approaches such as energy efficiency improvements, carbon sequestration, and the development of carbon-free energy sources would be sufficient to bring about the required reduction in per capita carbon emissions without creating unforeseen negative impacts elsewhere. In terms of energy efficiency, large improvements (?5-fold) are in principle possible given aggressive investments in R&D and if market imperfections such as corporate subsidies are removed. However, energy efficiency improvements per se will not result in a reduction in carbon emissions if, as predicted by the IPCC, the size of the global economy has expanded 12-26 fold by 2100. Terrestrial carbon sequestration via reforestation and improved agricultural soil management has many environmental advantages but has only limited CO2 mitigation potential because the global terrestrial carbon sink (ca. 200 Gt C) is small relative to the size of fossil fuel deposits (?4000 Gt C). By contrast, very large amounts of CO2 can potentially be removed from the atmosphere via sequestration in geologic formations and oceans, but carbon storage is not permanent and is likely to create many unpredictable environmental consequences. Renewable solar energy can in theory provide large amounts of carbon-free power. However, biomass and hydroelectric energy can only be marginally expanded and large-scale solar energy installations (i.e., wind, photovoltaics, and direct thermal) are likely to have significant negative environmental impacts. Expansion of nuclear energy is highly unlikely due to concerns over reactor safety, radioactive waste management, weapons proliferation, and cost. In view of the serious limitations and liabilities of many proposed CO2 mitigation approaches it appears that there remain only few no-regrets options such as drastic energy efficiency improvements, extensive terrestrial carbon sequestration, and cautious expansion of renewable energy generation. These promising CO2 mitigation technologies have the potential to bring about the required 20-fold reduction in per capita carbon emission only if population and economic growth are halted without delay. Thus, addressing the problem of global warming requires not only technological research and development but also a reexamination of core values that mistakenly equate material consumption and economic growth to happiness and well-being.

  18. accident consequence uncertainty: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    uncertainties in typical oil and gas projects: 1. The oil price, 2. The investments (capex) and operating. The oil and gas reserves and production profiles, 5. The production...

  19. analytical uncertainty propagation: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    uncertainties in typical oil and gas projects: 1. The oil price, 2. The investments (capex) and operating. The oil and gas reserves and production profiles, 5. The production...

  20. assessing spatial uncertainty: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    uncertainties in typical oil and gas projects: 1. The oil price, 2. The investments (capex) and operating. The oil and gas reserves and production profiles, 5. The production...