National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for global economic uncertainties

  1. Effects of the Uncertainty about Global Economic Recovery on Energy Transition and CO2 Price

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Durand-Lasserve, Olivier

    This paper examines the impact that uncertainty over economic growth may have on global energy transition and CO2 prices. We use a general-equilibrium model derived from MERGE, and define several stochastic scenarios for ...

  2. Uncertainty Analysis Economic Evaluations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bhulai, Sandjai

    uncertainties in typical oil and gas projects: 1. The oil price, 2. The investments (capex) and operating expenses (opex) for the project, 3. The number of wells and associated capex to recover the reserves, 4

  3. An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mercure, J F

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary mate...

  4. Economics 480: Economic Institutions and Economic Performance in a Global Context Montana State University

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maxwell, Bruce D.

    1 Economics 480: Economic Institutions and Economic Performance in a Global Context Montana State University Spring 2009 Rob Fleck Andy Hanssen Property Rights, Economic Performance, and the Origins of Democracy: Lessons from Ancient Greece Instructors: Rob Fleck and Andy Hanssen (professors of economics

  5. Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate Challenges in Talks with World Energy Ministers Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and...

  6. Uncertainty in atmospheric CO? predictions from a parametric uncertainty analysis of a global carbon cycle model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Holian, Gary L.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Prinn, Ronald G.

    Key uncertainties in the global carbon cycle are explored with a 2-D model for the oceanic carbon sink. By calibrating the key parameters of this ocean carbon sink model to widely referenced values, it produces an average ...

  7. Economic value of global weather measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Canavan, G.; Butterworth, J.

    1999-02-19

    Global sensor networks could support increased activity in a number of economic sectors. Potential benefits and the predicted time scales required to realize them are estimated. Benefits are particular compelling for fundamental reasons for aviation, hotels and restaurants, natural disasters, construction, agriculture, and apparel. These benefits can be captured by simple logistic approximations.

  8. A Global Assessment of Manufacturing: Economic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gutowski, Timothy

    Tools and Production Technology, Technische Universit¨at, Braunschweig D-38106, Germany Annu. RevA Global Assessment of Manufacturing: Economic Development, Energy Use, Carbon Emissions, and the Potential for Energy Efficiency and Materials Recycling Timothy G. Gutowski,1 Julian M. Allwood,3 Christoph

  9. Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate Challenges in Talks with World Energy Ministers Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy,...

  10. Effects of Globalization in Welfare An Islamic Economic Evaluation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 ABSTRACT Effects of Globalization in Welfare An Islamic Economic Evaluation Al-Jayousi, Ahmed, Effects of Globalization in Welfare: An Islamic Economic Evaluation, The Objective of this study to introduce an Islamic evaluation of globalization and welfare, as well as the strategies available

  11. Malaria and global change: Insights, uncertainties and possible surprises

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martin, P.H.; Steel, A.

    1996-12-31

    Malaria may change with global change. Indeed, global change may affect malaria risk and malaria epidemiology. Malaria risk may change in response to a greenhouse warming; malaria epidemiology, in response to the social, economic, and political developments which a greenhouse warming may trigger. To date, malaria receptivity and epidemiology futures have been explored within the context of equilibrium studies. Equilibrium studies of climate change postulate an equilibrium present climate (the starting point) and a doubled-carbon dioxide climate (the end point), simulate conditions in both instances, and compare the two. What happens while climate changes, i.e., between the starting point and the end point, is ignored. The present paper focuses on malaria receptivity and addresses what equilibrium studies miss, namely transient malaria dynamics.

  12. Economic Globalization and a Nuclear Renaissance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wood, Thomas W.; Johnson, Wayne L.; Parker, Brian M.

    2001-10-22

    The phenomenon of globalization has become increasingly well recognized, documented, and analyzed in the last several years. Globalization, the integration of markets and intra-firm competition on a worldwide basis, involves complex behavioral and mindset changes within a firm that facilitate global competition. The changes revolve around efficient information flow and rapid deployment of technology. The objective of this report is to examine the probable characteristics of a global nuclear renaissance and its broad implications for industry structure and export control relative to nuclear technology. The question of how a modern renaissance would affect the trend toward globalization of the nuclear industry is addressed.

  13. Feedstock Economics for Global Steam Crackers 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCormack, G.; Pavone, T.

    1990-01-01

    of annuunceme"ts of new global capac i ty. Many of the announcements have been made by organizations with no previous background in petrochemica Is, "'ho believe they possess strategic competit1ve advantages for success 1n the business. The choice... plants based upon five alternative feedstocks, and then modifying the data for 10 global regions in which significant new ethylene capacity has been announced. The five feedstocks considered are: ethane, propane, butane, wide range naphtha...

  14. Uncertainty in techno-economic estimates of cellulosic ethanol production due to experimental measurement uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vicari, Kristin Jenise

    Abstract Background Cost-effective production of lignocellulosic biofuels remains a major financial and technical challenge at the industrial scale. A critical tool in biofuels process development is the techno-economic ...

  15. Modeling aviation's global emissions, uncertainty analysis, and applications to policy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Joosung Joseph, 1974-

    2005-01-01

    (cont.) fuel burn results below 3000 ft. For emissions, the emissions indices were the most influential uncertainties for the variance in model outputs. By employing the model, this thesis examined three policy options for ...

  16. Global extreme events and their regional economic impact: 1996 update

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shen, S.

    1996-12-31

    The meaning of global warming and its relevance to everyday life is explained. Simple thermodynamics is used to predict an oscillatory nature of the change in climate due to global warming. The regional economic impacts of global extreme events are what mankind needs to focus on in government and private sector policy and planning. The economic impact of global warming has been tracked by the Extreme Event Index (EEI) established by the Global Warming International Center (GWIC). This review will update the overall trend and the components of the EEI from 1960 to 1996. The regional components of the global EEI have provided an excellent gauge for measuring the statistical vulnerability of any geographical locality in climate related economic disasters. The author further explains why we no longer fully understand the nature and magnitudes of common phenomena such as storms and wind speeds because of these extreme events, precipitation and temperature oscillations, atmospheric thermal unrest, as well as the further stratification of clouds, and changes in the absorptive properties of clouds. Hurricane strength winds are increasingly common even in continental areas. The author links the increase in duration of the El Nino to global warming, and further predicts a high public health risk as a result of the earth`s transition to another equilibrium state in its young history.

  17. Risk Management for a Global Supply Chain Planning under Uncertainty: Models and Algorithms

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grossmann, Ignacio E.

    Risk Management for a Global Supply Chain Planning under Uncertainty: Models and Algorithms Fengqi In this paper we consider the risk management for mid-term planning of a global multi-product chemical supply solve the resulting large scale industrial size problems. We also introduce risk management models

  18. Supply Chain Networks with Global Outsourcing and Quick-Response Production Under Demand and Cost Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Supply Chain Networks with Global Outsourcing and Quick-Response Production Under Demand and Cost and computational framework for supply chain networks with global outsourcing and quick-response production under demand and cost uncertainty. Our model considers multiple off-shore suppliers, multiple manufacturers

  19. The economics of long-term global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-09-01

    This report is intended to provide an overview of economic issues and research relevant to possible, long-term global climate change. It is primarily a critical survey, not a statement of Administration or Department policy. This report should serve to indicate that economic analysis of global change is in its infancy few assertions about costs or benefits can be made with confidence. The state of the literature precludes any attempt to produce anything like a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis. Moreover, almost all the quantitative estimates regarding physical and economic effects in this report, as well as many of the qualitative assertions, are controversial. Section I provides background on greenhouse gas emissions and their likely climatic effects and on available policy instruments. Section II considers the costs of living with global change, assuming no substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Section III considers costs of reducing these emissions, though the available literature does not contain estimates of the costs of policies that would, on the assumptions of current climate models, prevent climate change altogether. The individual sections are not entirely compartmentalized, but can be read independently if necessary.

  20. An Integrated Assessment Framework for Uncertainty Studies in Global and Regional Climate Change: The IGSM-CAM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    2012-06-18

    This paper describes an integrated assessment framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), ...

  1. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  2. An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    environmental changes. Being data-driven, the Program uses extensive Earth system and economic data and models System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate's Integrated Global System Model. Through this integrated model, the Program seeks to: discover new

  3. Uncertainties on $?_S$ in the MMHT2014 global PDF analysis and implications for SM predictions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    L. A. Harland-Lang; A. D. Martin; P. Motylinski; R. S. Thorne

    2015-06-18

    We investigate the uncertainty in the value of the strong coupling $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$ when allowing it to be a free parameter in the recent MMHT global analyses of deep-inelastic and related hard scattering data that was undertaken to determine the parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton. The analysis uses the standard framework of leading twist fixed--order collinear factorisation in the ${\\overline {\\rm MS}}$ scheme. We study the constraints on the value of $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$ coming from the individual data sets by repeating the NNLO and NLO global analyses at various fixed values of $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$ about its optimum values, spanning the range $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)=0.108$ to $0.128$ in units of $0.001$, and making all PDFs sets available. The inclusion of the measurements of the cross section for inclusive $t\\bar{t}$ production in the global fit allows us to explore the correlation between the values taken for the mass $m_t$ of the top quark and $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$. We find that the best fit values are $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)=0.1201\\pm0.0015$ and $0.1172\\pm 0.0013$ at NLO and NNLO respectively, with the central values changing to $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)=0.1195$ and $0.1178$ when the world average of $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$ is used as a data point. We investigate the interplay between the uncertainties on $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$ and the uncertainties on the PDFs. In particular we calculate the cross sections for key processes at the LHC and show how the uncertainties coming from the standard MMHT2014 PDFs and from $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$ can be provided independently and can be combined.

  4. Economic globalization and expressions of nationalism : a quantitative analysis of the present-day Chinese identity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bai, Peng Claire

    2011-01-01

    Economic globalization and growing interdependence have greatly facilitated the flows of trade, investment, and ideas among formerly hostile countries. However, political antagonism driven by nationalistic sentiments ...

  5. Crashes, Contagion, Cygnus, and Complexities:  Global Economic Crises and Real Estate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Edelstein, Robert H.; Edelstein, Michael D.

    2014-01-01

    Global Economic Crises and Real Estate Michael D. EdelsteinEdelstein Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economicslocal assets, including real estate. Moreover, burgeoning

  6. Accounting for Global Climate Model Projection Uncertainty in Modern Statistical Downscaling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johannesson, G

    2010-03-17

    Future climate change has emerged as a national and a global security threat. To carry out the needed adaptation and mitigation steps, a quantification of the expected level of climate change is needed, both at the global and the regional scale; in the end, the impact of climate change is felt at the local/regional level. An important part of such climate change assessment is uncertainty quantification. Decision and policy makers are not only interested in 'best guesses' of expected climate change, but rather probabilistic quantification (e.g., Rougier, 2007). For example, consider the following question: What is the probability that the average summer temperature will increase by at least 4 C in region R if global CO{sub 2} emission increases by P% from current levels by time T? It is a simple question, but one that remains very difficult to answer. It is answering these kind of questions that is the focus of this effort. The uncertainty associated with future climate change can be attributed to three major factors: (1) Uncertainty about future emission of green house gasses (GHG). (2) Given a future GHG emission scenario, what is its impact on the global climate? (3) Given a particular evolution of the global climate, what does it mean for a particular location/region? In what follows, we assume a particular GHG emission scenario has been selected. Given the GHG emission scenario, the current batch of the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is used to simulate future climate under this scenario, yielding an ensemble of future climate projections (which reflect, to some degree our uncertainty of being able to simulate future climate give a particular GHG scenario). Due to the coarse-resolution nature of the GCM projections, they need to be spatially downscaled for regional impact assessments. To downscale a given GCM projection, two methods have emerged: dynamical downscaling and statistical (empirical) downscaling (SDS). Dynamic downscaling involves configuring and running a regional climate model (RCM) nested within a given GCM projection (i.e., the GCM provides bounder conditions for the RCM). On the other hand, statistical downscaling aims at establishing a statistical relationship between observed local/regional climate variables of interest and synoptic (GCM-scale) climate predictors. The resulting empirical relationship is then applied to future GCM projections. A comparison of the pros and cons of dynamical versus statistical downscaling is outside the scope of this effort, but has been extensively studied and the reader is referred to Wilby et al. (1998); Murphy (1999); Wood et al. (2004); Benestad et al. (2007); Fowler et al. (2007), and references within those. The scope of this effort is to study methodology, a statistical framework, to propagate and account for GCM uncertainty in regional statistical downscaling assessment. In particular, we will explore how to leverage an ensemble of GCM projections to quantify the impact of the GCM uncertainty in such an assessment. There are three main component to this effort: (1) gather the necessary climate-related data for a regional SDS study, including multiple GCM projections, (2) carry out SDS, and (3) assess the uncertainty. The first step is carried out using tools written in the Python programming language, while analysis tools were developed in the statistical programming language R; see Figure 1.

  7. Socio-economic benefits in Plan Vivo projects: Trees for Global Benefits, Uganda 1 Socio-economic benefits in Plan Vivo projects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Socio-economic benefits in Plan Vivo projects: Trees for Global Benefits, Uganda 1 Socio-economic benefits in Plan Vivo projects: Trees for Global Benefits, Uganda Sarah Carter 2009 #12;Socio-economic Kairu, Bbale Marcellinus, Willie McGhee, Alexa Morrison and Pauline Nantongo. #12;Socio-economic

  8. The impact of global nuclear mass model uncertainties on $r$-process abundance predictions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    M. Mumpower; R. Surman; A. Aprahamian

    2014-11-14

    Rapid neutron capture or `$r$-process' nucleosynthesis may be responsible for half the production of heavy elements above iron on the periodic table. Masses are one of the most important nuclear physics ingredients that go into calculations of $r$-process nucleosynthesis as they enter into the calculations of reaction rates, decay rates, branching ratios and Q-values. We explore the impact of uncertainties in three nuclear mass models on $r$-process abundances by performing global monte carlo simulations. We show that root-mean-square (rms) errors of current mass models are large so that current $r$-process predictions are insufficient in predicting features found in solar residuals and in $r$-process enhanced metal poor stars. We conclude that the reduction of global rms errors below $100$ keV will allow for more robust $r$-process predictions.

  9. Paul S. Veers, "All Wind Farm Uncertainty Is Not The Same: The Economics of Common Versus Independent Causes," Proceedings Windpower 1995, AWEA,, pp. 125-129.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paul S. Veers, "All Wind Farm Uncertainty Is Not The Same: The Economics of Common Versus Independent Causes," Proceedings Windpower 1995, AWEA,, pp. 125-129. ALL WIND FARM UNCERTAINTY IS NOT THE SAME: THE ECONOMICS OF COMMON VERSUS INDEPENDENT CAUSES* Paul S. Veers Sandia National Laboratories Wind Energy

  10. Global Warming What is Climate? Ocean's Role in Climate Change Uncertainty Quantification, the Next Frontier The Role Played by Oceans in Climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Restrepo, Juan M.

    Global Warming What is Climate? Ocean's Role in Climate Change Uncertainty Quantification, the Next Department University of Arizona October 11, 2008 #12;Global Warming What is Climate? Ocean's Role in Climate, Undergraduate Students: 2. UQGQG #12;Global Warming What is Climate? Ocean's Role in Climate Change Uncertainty

  11. Climate change and agriculture : global and regional effects using an economic model of international trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reilly, John M.

    1993-01-01

    Empirical estimates of the economic welfare implications of the impact of climate change on global agricultural production are made. Agricultural yield changes resulting from climate scenarios associated with a doubling ...

  12. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01

    uncertainty of full carbon accounting of forest ecosystemsA. ; Hopson, E. , Proper accounting for time increases crop-use change modeling in GTEM: Accounting for forest sinks.

  13. Global Health and Economic Impacts of Future Ozone Pollution

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort D.

    We assess the human health and economic impacts of projected 2000-2050 changes in ozone pollution using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis-Health Effects (EPPA-HE) model, in combination with results from the ...

  14. A global perspective on energy markets and economic integration.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baker, Arnold Barry

    2006-04-01

    What will be the effect of Iraqi domestic instability on Iraqi oil production Negotiations for Iranian nuclear technology on Iranian oil supplies Saudi commitment to expanded oil production President Putin's policies on Russian oil and natural gas supplies President Chavez's policies on Venezuelan oil supplies Instability in Nigeria Higher oil prices on world economic growth Effect of economic growth on oil demand in China, India, U.S., etc. Higher oil prices on non-OPEC oil supplies

  15. An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model ...

  16. Efficient Global Optimization Under Conditions of Noise and Uncertainty A Multi-Model Multi-Grid Windowing Approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neumaier, Arnold

    Efficient Global Optimization Under Conditions of Noise and Uncertainty ­ A Multi-Model Multi. By understanding how noise, bias, and topographical inaccuracy in the objective function vary with model resolution into the calculation of the objective function in an optimization problem, producing noise, bias, and topo- graphical

  17. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01

    the GTAP-BIO framework. Climate Change Economics 2012, 03, (in the GTAP-BIO framework. Climate Change Economics 03 (03),Land Use Data for Climate Change Analysis. Routledge Press.

  18. The US/Global Achilles heel : economic terrorism.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Backus, George A.

    2005-04-01

    While loss of life is the operating concern of Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the security of the economy ultimately decides the success of the war on terrorism. This project focuses on mitigation, containment, response, and impact of terrorist events on the economy. Conventional economic methods are inadequate, but agent-based methods (Discrete Simulation) appears to uniquely capture the dynamics and emergent (human) behaviors.

  19. PLASTIC RESINS INDUSTRY HIT HARD BY GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECESSION IN 2008

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laughlin, Robert B.

    PLASTIC RESINS INDUSTRY HIT HARD BY GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECESSION IN 2008 The US plastic resins in the second half of the year. According to the American Chemistry Council (ACC) Plastics Industry Producers deficit in plastic products deteriorated from a $1.21 billion deficit in 2007 to a $2.36 billion deficit

  20. ECONOMIC MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ADOPTION OF CARBON CAPTURE AND SEQUESTRATION TECHNOLOGIES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ECONOMIC MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ADOPTION OF CARBON CAPTURE AND SEQUESTRATION TECHNOLOGIES J. R. Mc of carbon capture and sequestration technologies as applied to electric generating plants. The MIT Emissions, is used to model carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies based on a natural gas combined cycle

  1. Global Economic Effects of USA Biofuel Policy and the Potential Contribution from Advanced Biofuels

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gbadebo Oladosu; Keith Kline; Paul Leiby; Rocio Uria-Martinez; Maggie Davis; Mark Downing; Laurence Eaton

    2012-01-01

    This study evaluates the global economic effects of the USA renewable fuel standards (RFS2), and the potential contribution from advanced biofuels. Our simulation results imply that these mandates lead to an increase of 0.21 percent in the global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022, including an increase of 0.8 percent in the USA and 0.02 percent in the rest of the world (ROW); relative to our baseline, no-RFS scenario. The incremental contributions to GDP from advanced biofuels in 2022 are estimated at 0.41 percent and 0.04 percent in the USA and ROW, respectively. Although production costs of advanced biofuels are higher than for conventional biofuels in our model, their economic benefits result from reductions in oil use, and their smaller impacts on food markets compared with conventional biofuels. Thus, the USA advanced biofuels targets are expected to have positive economic benefits.

  2. Socio-economic benefits in Plan Vivo projects: Trees for Global Benefits, Uganda 50 Appendix 6.6

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Socio-economic benefits in Plan Vivo projects: Trees for Global Benefits, Uganda 50 Appendix 6.6 Socio-economic benefits in Plan Vivo projects: A complete manual for a project assessment 1. Survey for the Socio-economic study of a carbon offset Plan Vivo project. The methodology has been developed initially

  3. nCTEQ15 - Global analysis of nuclear parton distributions with uncertainties in the CTEQ framework

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kovarik, K; Jezo, T; Clark, D B; Keppel, C; Lyonnet, F; Morfin, J G; Olness, F I; Owens, J F; Schienbein, I; Yu, J Y

    2015-01-01

    We present the new nCTEQ15 set of nuclear parton distribution functions with uncertainties. This fit extends the CTEQ proton PDFs to include the nuclear dependence using data on nuclei all the way up to 208^Pb. The uncertainties are determined using the Hessian method with an optimal rescaling of the eigenvectors to accurately represent the uncertainties for the chosen tolerance criteria. In addition to the Deep Inelastic Scattering (DIS) and Drell-Yan (DY) processes, we also include inclusive pion production data from RHIC to help constrain the nuclear gluon PDF. Furthermore, we investigate the correlation of the data sets with specific nPDF flavor components, and asses the impact of individual experiments. We also provide comparisons of the nCTEQ15 set with recent fits from other groups.

  4. Supply Chain Networks with Global Outsourcing and Quick-Response Production Under Demand and Cost Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Supply Chain Networks with Global Outsourcing and Quick-Response Production Under Demand and Cost framework for supply chain networks with global outsourcing and quick-response production under demand, and multiple demand markets. Using variational inequality theory, we formulate the governing equilibrium

  5. Uncertainty induced by QCD coupling in the CTEQ-TEA global analysis of parton densities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lai, Hung-Liang; Li, Zhao; Nadolsky, Pavel; Pumplin, Jon; Stump, Daniel; Yuan, C -P

    2010-01-01

    We examine the dependence of parton distribution functions (PDFs) on the value of the QCD coupling strength $\\alpha_{s}(M_{Z})$. We explain a simple method that is rigorously valid in the quadratic approximation normally applied in PDF fitting, and fully reproduces the correlated dependence of theoretical cross sections on $\\alpha_s$ and PDF parameters. This method is based on a statistical relation that allows one to add the uncertainty produced by $\\alpha_s$, computed with some special PDF sets, in quadrature with the PDF uncertainty obtained for the fixed $\\alpha_s$ value (such as the CTEQ6.6 PDF set). A series of four CTEQ6.6AS PDFs realizing this approach, for $\\alpha_s$ values in the interval $0.116 \\leq \\alpha_{s}(M_{Z}) \\leq 0.120$, is presented. Using these PDFs, the combined $\\alpha_{s}$ and PDF uncertainty is assessed for theoretical predictions at the Tevatron and LHC colliders.

  6. Climate change has been one of the major issues of global economic and social concerns in the past decade. To quantitatively predict global climate change, the Intergovernmental

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Climate change has been one of the major issues of global economic and social concerns in the past decade. To quantitatively predict global climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-ocean models to project anthropogenically induced climate changes in the 21st century. The computer simulations

  7. Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schmitz, Christoph; van Meijl, Hans; Kyle, G. Page; Nelson, Gerald C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gurgel, Angelo; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; von Lampe, Martin; Wise, Marshall A.; Blanc, Elodie; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Valin, Hugo

    2014-01-01

    Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10–25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.

  8. Acclimate--a model for economic damage propagation. Part 1: basic formulation of damage transfer within a global supply

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levermann, Anders

    failure, price responses and adaptive changes in the economic supply network. The underlying global supply network is based on data from multi-regional input­output tables. Transportation times are derived from

  9. 15.023J / 12.848J / ESD.128J Global Climate Change: Economics, Science, and Policy, Spring 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jacoby, Henry D.

    Introduces scientific, economic, and ecological issues underlying the threat of global climate change, and the institutions engaged in negotiating an international response. Develops an integrated approach to analysis of ...

  10. 15.023J / 12.848J / ESD.128J Global Climate Change: Economics, Science, and Policy, Spring 2004

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jacoby, Henry D.

    Introduces scientific, economic, and ecological issues underlying the threat of global climate change, and the institutions engaged in negotiating an international response. Develops an integrated approach to analysis of ...

  11. Global Economic Effects of Changes in Crops, Pasture, and Forests due to Changing Climate, Carbon Dioxide, and Ozone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reilly, John M.

    Multiple environmental changes will have consequences for global vegetation. To the extent that crop yields and pasture and forest productivity are affected there can be important economic consequences. We examine the ...

  12. nCTEQ15 - Global analysis of nuclear parton distributions with uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kusina, A; Jezo, T; Clark, D B; Keppel, C; Lyonnet, F; Morfin, J G; Olness, F I; Owens, J F; Schienbein, I; Yu, J Y

    2015-01-01

    We present the first official release of the nCTEQ nuclear parton distribution functions with errors. The main addition to the previous nCTEQ PDFs is the introduction of PDF uncertainties based on the Hessian method. Another important addition is the inclusion of pion production data from RHIC that give us a handle on constraining the gluon PDF. This contribution summarizes our results from arXiv:1509.00792 and concentrates on the comparison with other groups providing nuclear parton distributions.

  13. Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View 35 Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy goods and services demanded by a society which is increasingly appreciative of their utility. More than

  14. Uncertainties on $\\alpha_S$ in the MMHT2014 global PDF analysis and implications for SM predictions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Harland-Lang, L A; Motylinski, P; Thorne, R S

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the uncertainty in the value of the strong coupling $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$ when allowing it to be a free parameter in the recent MMHT global analyses of deep-inelastic and related hard scattering data that was undertaken to determine the parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton. The analysis uses the standard framework of leading twist fixed--order collinear factorisation in the ${\\overline {\\rm MS}}$ scheme. We study the constraints on the value of $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$ coming from the individual data sets by repeating the NNLO and NLO global analyses at various fixed values of $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$ about its optimum values, spanning the range $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)=0.108$ to $0.128$ in units of $0.001$, and making all PDFs sets available. The inclusion of the measurements of the cross section for inclusive $t\\bar{t}$ production in the global fit allows us to explore the correlation between the values taken for the mass $m_t$ of the top quark and $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$. We find that the best fit values are ...

  15. Uncertainty in environmental economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pindyck, Robert S.

    2006-01-01

    In a world of certainty, the design of environmental policy is relatively straightforward, and boils down to maximizing the present value of the flow of social benefits minus costs. But the real world is one of considerable ...

  16. The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

  17. Using NASA Remote Sensing Data to Reduce Uncertainty of Land-Use Transitions in Global Carbon-Climate Models: Data Management Plan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Using NASA Remote Sensing Data to Reduce Uncertainty of Land-Use Transitions in Global Carbon University of Maryland The following Data Management Plan was part of the NASA ROSES 2012 Proposal Using NASA), as described below. We will follow all guidelines in the NASA Earth Science Data and Information Policy, along

  18. Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hernandez, Jacquelynne; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Jennings, Barbara Joan; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Brown, Theresa Jean; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2010-09-01

    Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subset of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.

  19. Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-01-01

    While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.

  20. Continuous improvement at a multinational company : dealing with uncertainty in the global supply chain and analyzing implementation dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ochoa Gonzalez, Arturo

    2013-01-01

    This thesis explores the problem of global supply chain flexibility in the context of a multinational commonly that we refer to as Company X. Company X faces competitive markets, increasingly demanding customers, and ...

  1. The economic impact of global climate and tropospheric oxone on world agricultural production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Xiaodu

    2005-01-01

    The objective of my thesis is to analyze the economic impact on agriculture production from changes in climate and tropospheric ozone, and related policy interventions. The analysis makes use of the Emissions Prediction ...

  2. Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort David.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Mayer, Monika.; Reilly, John M.; Harnisch, Jochen.; Hyman, Robert C.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Wang, Chien.

    Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a ...

  3. On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price dynamics of energy commodities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mercure, Jean-Francois

    2013-01-01

    A model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolution of the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non-renewable resources, their consumption, depletion pathways and timescales. Such marginal costs can be used to simulate the long term average price formation of energy commodities. Drawing on previous work where a global database of energy resource economic potentials was constructed, this work uses cost distributions of non-renewable resources in order to evaluate global flows of energy commodities. A mathematical framework is given to calculate endogenous flows of energy resources given an exogenous commodity price path. This framework can be used in reverse in order to calculate an exogenous marginal cost of production of energy carriers given an exogenous carrier demand. Using rigid price inelastic assumptions independent of the economy, these two approaches generate limiting scenarios that depict extreme use of natural resources. This is useful to characterise the cur...

  4. Moral purpose, economic incentive and global trade : why new business models are needed

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Samel, Hiram M

    2006-01-01

    Globalization has occurred in various forms over the past century, yet only recently has it become daily news. This evolving process has created numerous underlying tensions that are not well understood. While western ...

  5. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Uncertainties Need Characterization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Post, Wilfred M.

    Greenhouse Gas Inventory Uncertainties Need Characterization Contact: Gregg Marland, 865 of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted to and removed from the atmosphere are essential for understanding global.S. Department of Energy Greenhouse Gas Inventory Uncertainties Need Characterization Abstract: The assessment

  6. Assessing the state-level consequences of global warming: Socio-economic and energy demand impacts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rubin, B.M. Gailmard, S.; Marsh, D.; Septoff, A.

    1996-12-31

    The large body of research on climate change has begun to recognize a significant deficiency: the lack of analysis of the impact of climate change at a spatial level consistent with the anticipated occurrence of climate change. Climate change is likely to vary by region, while impact analysis has focused on much larger political units. Clearly, adaptation/mitigation strategies must be developed at a level consistent with political and policy-making processes. This paper specifically addresses this deficiency by identifying the potential socio-economic and energy demand consequences of climate change for subnational regions. This is accomplished via the development and application of a regional simultaneous equation, econometric simulation model that focuses on five states (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin) in the Great Lakes region of the US. This paper presents a process for obtaining state-specific assessments of the consequences of climate change for the socio-economic system. As such, it provides an indication of which economic sectors are most sensitive to climate change for a specific state (Indiana), a set of initial mitigation/adaptation strategies for this state, and the results of testing these strategies in the policy analysis framework enabled by the model. In addition, the research demonstrates an effective methodology for assessing impacts and policy implications of climate change at a level consistent with policy making authority.

  7. Analysis of Global Economic and Environmental Impacts of a Substantial Increase in Bioenergy Wallace E. Tyner (wtyner@purdue.edu), Thomas W. Hertel, Farzad Taheripour*, and Dileep K. Birur

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Analysis of Global Economic and Environmental Impacts of a Substantial Increase in Bioenergy have profound global economic, environmental, and social consequences. Current studies do not provide of biofuels and lack of comprehensive studies on global impacts have opened up several research avenues. Since

  8. Modeling the Oil Transition: A Summary of the Proceedings of the DOE/EPA Workshop on the Economic and Environmental Implications of Global Energy Transitions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greene, David L

    2007-02-01

    The global energy system faces sweeping changes in the next few decades, with potentially critical implications for the global economy and the global environment. It is important that global institutions have the tools necessary to predict, analyze and plan for such massive change. This report summarizes the proceedings of an international workshop concerning methods of forecasting, analyzing, and planning for global energy transitions and their economic and environmental consequences. A specific case, it focused on the transition from conventional to unconventional oil and other energy sources likely to result from a peak in non-OPEC and/or global production of conventional oil. Leading energy models from around the world in government, academia and the private sector met, reviewed the state-of-the-art of global energy modeling and evaluated its ability to analyze and predict large-scale energy transitions.

  9. Economic History Revisited: New Uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to the southern and midwestern regions of the United States. However, the large run-up in oil prices is increasing shown vacancy rates higher than the historical average, while companies seeking properties for sale are paying ever-increasing prices for fewer available sites. Warehouse sites in the southern portion

  10. Nanotechnology and Innovation, Recent status and the strategic implication for the formation of high tech clusters in Greece, in between a global economic crisis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gkanas, Evangelos I; Makridis, Sofoklis S; Stubos, Athanasios K; Bakouros, Ioannis

    2013-01-01

    Nanotechnology is the first major worldwide research initiative of the 21st century and probably is the solution vector in the economic environment. Also, innovation is widely recognized as a key factor in the economic development of nations, and is essential for the competitiveness of the industrial firms as well. Policy and management of innovation are necessary in order to develop innovation and it involves processes. It is essential to develop new methods for nanotechnology development for better understanding of nanotechnology based innovation. Nanotechnologies reveal commercialization processes, from start ups to large firms in collaboration with public sector research. In the current paper, a study in the present status of innovation in nanotechnology and the affection of global economic crisis in this section is made and also the potential of increase the innovation via the presence of clusters in a small country like Greece which is in the eye of tornado from the global crisis is studied.

  11. MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    established research centers at MIT: the Center for Global Change Science (CGCS) and the Center for Energy issue, the uncertainties, and the economic and social implications of policy alternatives. Henry D and Policy of Global Change, MIT, Cambridge, MA 02139 4 Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska

  12. A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Korotayev, Andrey V; Tsirel, Sergey V.

    2010-01-01

    and Significance of Kuznets Cycles. Economic Development andUniversity Press. Kuznets S. 1930. Secular Movements inSchumpeter and Kuznets: Trend Periods Revisited. Journal of

  13. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01

    vector consisting of quarterly global crude oil production,crude oil price and real economic activity. The real economic activity is measured by the industrial production

  14. Global Warming, endogenous risk and irreversibility

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fisher, Anthony C.; Narain, Urvashi

    2002-01-01

    The economics of global warming, Institute for InternationalEconomic Models of Global Warming, Cambridge, Mass. MITstochastic losses from global warming, Risk Analysis 16(2):

  15. Global

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration would likeUniverse (Journalvivo Low-Dose Low LETUseful LinksGlass Stronger thanGlenn T.4Global

  16. On Integrating Theories of International Economics in the Strategic Planning of Global Supply Chains and Dynamic Supply Chain Reconfiguration with Capacity Expansion and Contraction 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Chaehwa

    2012-02-14

    supply chain design, since it has a rich history within the OR/MS community and since it is central to strategic planning in the global economy. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has increased trade among member countries (Canada, Mexico... and economic gains that improve income and living standards. A number of free trade agreements have been initiated around the world (e.g. regional and bilateral free trade agreements (FTA); the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) (1994), the Central...

  17. Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    NVLAP Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty #12;Assessor Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 3 Measurement Uncertainty ·Calibration and testing labs performing Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 4 Measurement Uncertainty ·When the nature of the test precludes

  18. Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSW-GTR-208 Session 3B--Reconstruction of Forest Areas--Flores G., Moreno G., Rincón R. social impact been a useful work tool for the inhabitants of the rural areas of Mexico, who employed fire to cleanse on the region should be evaluated, as well as damage to the area water basin. Evaluation of the economic impact

  19. Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Standiford, Richard B.

    : A Global View The Increase in Forest Fires in Natural Woodland and Forestry Plantations in Chile1 Eduardo Peña-Fernández, 2 Luis Valenzuela-Palma3 Summary The problem of forest fires affecting natural woodland of forest fires had been profiled, we debated the factors which would explain the increase in occurrence

  20. Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Standiford, Richard B.

    : A Global View Forest Fires in Mexico and Central América1 Roberto Martínez Domínguez,2 Dante Arturo in the region. In 1998, some 56,731 fires affected 2,330,000 ha. Forest fires contribute to deforestation, Córdoba, Spain. 2 Deputy Director of Forest Fires, SEMARNAT-CONAFOR. Av. Progreso no. 5, México, D

  1. Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Standiford, Richard B.

    : A Global View Social Impact of Large-Scale Forest Fires1 José Mª Rábade,2 Carmen Aragoneses2 Summary Growing public alarm at the problem of large-scale forest fires, is evident from an assessment the extraordinary social and environmental impact of forest fires. Emergency situations caused by evacuations

  2. Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View United States Forest Service (USFS)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    : A Global View United States Forest Service (USFS) NRIS-INFORMS-Fire/Fuels Analysis Tool 1 David S. Martinez routines, and rule bases (a knowledge base component) Build and retain project alternatives via Arc Ecologist, Fire & Aviation Management, Southwestern Region, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture

  3. MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    centers at MIT: the Center for Global Change Science (CGCS) and the Center for Energy and Environmental issue, the uncertainties, and the economic and social implications of policy alternatives. Titles, and Alaska are the major CH4 regional sources to the atmosphere; responsible for 64%, 11%, and 7

  4. Adaptive control of hypersonic vehicles in presence of actuation uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Somanath, Amith

    2010-01-01

    The thesis develops a new class of adaptive controllers that guarantee global stability in presence of actuation uncertainties. Actuation uncertainties culminate to linear plants with a partially known input matrix B. ...

  5. Sandia Energy - Uncertainty Analysis

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Uncertainty Analysis Home Stationary Power Nuclear Fuel Cycle Nuclear Energy Safety Technologies Risk and Safety Assessment Uncertainty Analysis Uncertainty AnalysisTara...

  6. Economics Undergraduate BSc Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burton, Geoffrey R.

    Economics Undergraduate BSc Economics BSc Economics and Politics #12;www.bath.ac.uk/economics Welcome to the Department of Economics The Department has a strong international research reputation in mainstream economics. Our teaching is internationally respected and our students are in demand by employers

  7. Economics Postgraduate MSc Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burton, Geoffrey R.

    Economics Postgraduate MSc Economics MSc Economics & Finance MSc International Money & Banking #12;www.bath.ac.uk/economics Welcome to the Department of Economics The Department offers a range. The Department has a strong international research reputation in mainstream economics. Our teaching and research

  8. Urban Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Quigley, John M.

    2006-01-01

    property taxation regional economics residential segregationexternalities urban economics urban production externalitiesproperty taxation regional economics residential segregation

  9. Optimal timing problems in environmental economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pindyck, Robert S.

    2001-01-01

    Because of the uncertainties and irreversibilities that are often inherent in environmental degradation, its prevention, and its economic consequences, environmental policy design can involve important problems of timing. ...

  10. BPA Study of Smart Grid Economics ...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study of Smart Grid Economics Identifies Attractive Opportunities and Key Uncertainties Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and Navigant Consulting recently released a white...

  11. (Managing the global environment)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rayner, S.F.

    1989-10-03

    The conference was stimulated by concern that policy makers increasingly have to make environmental management decisions in the absence of solidly established scientific consensus about ecological processes and the consequences of human actions. Often, as in the case of climate change, some decisions may have to be made in the absence of information that is desirable but may not be available for years to come, if ever. Six topics were identified as running throughout the Congress. These were: the epistemology and history of the sciences or disciplines concerned with the environment, including the scientific basis of rationality and modes of dealing with uncertainty and complexity; the social, economic, and institutional conditions for the production of knowledge bearing on the environment, including the politics of research and the improvement of scientific data; the structuring and institutionalization of expert assessments on national and international levels, including the global distribution of expertise; the means of establishing scientific information, the role of the media in transmitting and processing knowledge about the environment, and the organization of public environmental debate; and decision making and management under conditions of uncertainty; and, finally the relationship between science and ethics. 13 refs.

  12. Quantum Theory of Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vladimir I. Zverev; Alexander M. Tishin

    2009-01-29

    In the given work the first attempt to generalize quantum uncertainty relation on macro objects is made. Business company as one of economical process participants was chosen by the authors for this purpose. The analogies between quantum micro objects and the structures which from the first sight do not have anything in common with physics are given. The proof of generalized uncertainty relation is produced. With the help of generalized uncertainty relation the authors wanted to elaborate a new non-traditional approach to the description of companies' business activity and their developing and try to formulate some advice for them. Thus, our work makes the base of quantum theory of econimics

  13. Invited Paper, Conference on Global Change: Economic Issues in Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Resources. Washington, D.C. November 19-21, 1990.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarl, Bruce A.

    of these economic evaluations, while preliminary, suggest that climate change is not a food security issue, #12 and control" strategies. Objectives There are few economic evaluations of the costs to agricultural producers is to perform a preliminary economic evaluation of the social costs of selected strategies to reduce trace gas

  14. NEW INSTITUTIONAL ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bateman, Ian J.

    economics, institutions, environmental govern- ance, environment and development, social capital JEL institutional economics on environmental governance under local common property arrangemen for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment (CSERGE) University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ

  15. Economics and Decision-Making for Climate Change and Sustainability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schmittner, Andreas

    summer on record ·Polar bears could disappear within a century ·Global warming, economic decisions are driving phenomena such as global warming and biodiversity is a global externality ­ very difficult to tackle from an economic point of view

  16. Global Aerosol Health Impacts: Quantifying Uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Selin, Noelle E.

    Atmospheric fine particulate matter <2.5 ?m (PM2.5) can cause cardiovasculatory and respiratory damages and mortalities. Assessing population exposure to and damages from PM2.5 is important for policy, but measurement ...

  17. Sales & operations planning in a global business

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Honstain, Christopher Michael

    2007-01-01

    As companies become more global and begin to outsource manufacturing and other services, the uncertainty in the supply resource increases. Demand uncertainties increase as these same companies expand into new countries to ...

  18. The global warming signal is the average of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jones, Peter JS

    The global warming signal is the average of years 70-80 in the increasing CO2 run minus the average represent significant uncertainty in the global warming signal (Fig. 5). The differences at high latitudes, uncertainty in the isopycnal diffusivity causes uncertainty of up to 50% in the global warming signal

  19. Application of price uncertainty quantification models and their impacts on project evaluations 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fariyibi, Festus Lekan

    2006-10-30

    This study presents an analysis of several recently published methods for quantifying the uncertainty in economic evaluations due to uncertainty in future oil prices. Conventional price forecasting methods used in the industry typically...

  20. Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Mccomiskey, Allison

    Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

  1. Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Mccomiskey, Allison

    2008-01-15

    Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

  2. Framework for Modeling the Uncertainty of Future Events in Life Cycle Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Yi-Fen; Simon, Rachel; Dornfeld, David

    2013-01-01

    event scenarios could alter LCA result. REFERENCES SchweimerEconomic- balance hybrid LCA extended with uncertaintyLife Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a leading technique used to

  3. Fractured elites : the politics of economic crisis in Mexico

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schlefer, Jonathan King

    2003-01-01

    Economic crises are such powerful socioeconomic disasters that, not surprisingly, they are usually explained by powerful socioeconomic pressures, such as global financial speculation, structural economic failure, or populist ...

  4. Uncertainties in Gapped Graphene

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eylee Jung; Kwang S. Kim; DaeKil Park

    2012-03-20

    Motivated by graphene-based quantum computer we examine the time-dependence of the position-momentum and position-velocity uncertainties in the monolayer gapped graphene. The effect of the energy gap to the uncertainties is shown to appear via the Compton-like wavelength $\\lambda_c$. The uncertainties in the graphene are mainly contributed by two phenomena, spreading and zitterbewegung. While the former determines the uncertainties in the long-range of time, the latter gives the highly oscillation to the uncertainties in the short-range of time. The uncertainties in the graphene are compared with the corresponding values for the usual free Hamiltonian $\\hat{H}_{free} = (p_1^2 + p_2^2) / 2 M$. It is shown that the uncertainties can be under control within the quantum mechanical law if one can choose the gap parameter $\\lambda_c$ freely.

  5. Uncertainty in Greenhouse Emissions and Costs of Atmospheric Stabilization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort D.

    We explore the uncertainty in projections of emissions, and costs of atmospheric stabilization applying the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model, a computable general equilibrium model of the global economy. ...

  6. Sandia Energy - Uncertainty Quantification

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    rate-expression parameters. It is important, both for model validation and design optimization purposes, that these uncertainties be adequately quantified and propagated to...

  7. Estimating the Economic Cost of Sea-Level Rise

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sugiyama, Masahiro.

    To improve the estimate of economic costs of future sea-level rise associated with global climate change,

  8. Construction and AvailabilityConstruction and Availability Uncertainty in the RegionalUncertainty in the Regional

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Page 1 Construction and AvailabilityConstruction and Availability Uncertainty in the Regional and Technology Availability Construction Costs Economic Retirement Variable Capacity for Existing Units #12;Page to construction power plants or to take other action May include policies for particular resources "Scenario

  9. Water Management, Risk, and Uncertainty: Things We Wish We Knew in the 21st

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shaw, W. Douglass

    Water Management, Risk, and Uncertainty: Things We Wish We Knew in the 21st Century [Forthcoming;1 Introduction A survey is offered of the most difficult and challenging issues to water managers in the 21st Century, focusing on the economics of risks and more so, uncertainty. Risk and uncertainty is addressed

  10. Advanced Coal Wind Hybrid: Economic Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Phadke, Amol

    2008-01-01

    Source: Velocity Suite, Global Energy Data Advanced Coal Wind Hybrid: Economic Analysis 6.3.2 Comparison with Non-hybrid Competing

  11. The Very Long Run Economic Growth

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wu, Lemin

    2013-01-01

    Growth before the Industrial Revolution. ” Journal of Law2001. “ Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? EconomicThe British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective. ”

  12. Brandeis University Economics current number of majors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hickey, Timothy J.

    in international develop- ment and global poverty to raise funds for microfinance institutions across the world, helping to alleviate global poverty. study abroad Economics majors and minors are encouraged to further

  13. Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth; Preston, Dean L.

    2015-03-19

    This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.

  14. Climate Change Economics and Policy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Romano, Daniela

    AFRICA COLLEGE Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Adapting to Climate Change 3 CLIMATE...Furthermore, there is strong scientific evidence that climate change will disrupt the global economy, environment and society a growing population in a changing climate is, therefore, a major global challenge. Changes in climate

  15. Global warming, global research, and global governing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Preining, O.

    1997-12-31

    The anticipated dangers of Global Warming can be mitigated by reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, especially CO{sub 2}. To reach acceptable, constant levels within the next couple of centuries it might be necessary to accept stabilization levels higher than present ones, The annual CO{sub 2} emissions must be reduced far below today`s values. This is a very important result of the models discussed in the 1995 IPCC report. However, any even very modest scenario for the future must take into account a substantial increase in the world population which might double during the 21st century, There is a considerable emission reduction potential of the industrialized world due to efficiency increase, However, the demand for energy services by the growing world population will, inspite of the availability of alternative energy resources, possibly lead to a net increase in fossil fuel consumption. If the climate models are right, and the science community believes they are, we will experience a global warming of the order of a couple of degrees over the next century; we have to live with it. To be prepared for the future it is essential for us to use new research techniques embracing not only the familiar fields of hard sciences but also social, educational, ethical and economic aspects, We must find a way to build up the essential intellectual capacities needed to deal with these kinds of general problems within all nations and all societies. But this is not Although, we also have to find the necessary dynamical and highly flexible structures for a global governing using tools such as the environmental regime. The first step was the Framework Convention On Climate Change, UN 1992; for resolution of questions regarding implementations the Conference of the Parties was established.

  16. Optimal Uncertainty Quantification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Owhadi, Houman; Sullivan, Timothy John; McKerns, Mike; Ortiz, Michael

    2010-01-01

    We propose a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which the UQ objectives and the assumptions/information set are brought to the forefront. This framework, which we call \\emph{Optimal Uncertainty Quantification} (OUQ), is based on the observation that, given a set of assumptions and information about the problem, there exist optimal bounds on uncertainties: these are obtained as extreme values of well-defined optimization problems corresponding to extremizing probabilities of failure, or of deviations, subject to the constraints imposed by the scenarios compatible with the assumptions and information. In particular, this framework does not implicitly impose inappropriate assumptions, nor does it repudiate relevant information. Although OUQ optimization problems are extremely large, we show that under general conditions, they have finite-dimensional reductions. As an application, we develop \\emph{Optimal Concentration Inequalities} (OCI) of Hoeffding and McDiarmid type. Surprisingly, contr...

  17. Economic Analysis for Ecosystem Service Assessments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bateman, Ian J.

    1 Economic Analysis for Ecosystem Service Assessments by Ian Bateman, Georgina Mace, Carlo Fezzi, Giles Atkinson and Kerry Turner CSERGE Working Paper EDM 10-10 #12;2 Economic Analysis for Ecosystem Turneri,2 i. Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment (CSERGE), School

  18. Uncertainty and calibration analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1991-03-01

    All measurements contain some deviation from the true value which is being measured. In the common vernacular this deviation between the true value and the measured value is called an inaccuracy, an error, or a mistake. Since all measurements contain errors, it is necessary to accept that there is a limit to how accurate a measurement can be. The undertainty interval combined with the confidence level, is one measure of the accuracy for a measurement or value. Without a statement of uncertainty (or a similar parameter) it is not possible to evaluate if the accuracy of the measurement, or data, is appropriate. The preparation of technical reports, calibration evaluations, and design calculations should consider the accuracy of measurements and data being used. There are many methods to accomplish this. This report provides a consistent method for the handling of measurement tolerances, calibration evaluations and uncertainty calculations. The SRS Quality Assurance (QA) Program requires that the uncertainty of technical data and instrument calibrations be acknowledged and estimated. The QA Program makes some specific technical requirements related to the subject but does not provide a philosophy or method on how uncertainty should be estimated. This report was prepared to provide a technical basis to support the calculation of uncertainties and the calibration of measurement and test equipment for any activity within the Experimental Thermal-Hydraulics (ETH) Group. The methods proposed in this report provide a graded approach for estimating the uncertainty of measurements, data, and calibrations. The method is based on the national consensus standard, ANSI/ASME PTC 19.1.

  19. Optimization Under Generalized Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lodwick, Weldon

    11 Optimization Under Generalized Uncertainty Optimization Modeling Math 4794/5794: Spring 2013 Weldon A. Lodwick Weldon.Lodwick@ucdenver.edu 2/14/2013 Optimization Modeling - Spring 2013 #12 in the context of optimization problems. The theoretical frame-work for these notes is interval analysis. From

  20. Benefits to the United States of Increasing Global Uptake of Clean Energy Technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kline, D.

    2010-07-01

    A previous report describes an opportunity for the United States to take leadership in efforts to transform the global energy system toward clean energy technologies (CET). An accompanying analysis to that report provides estimates of the economic benefits to the United States of such a global transformation on the order of several hundred billion dollars per year by 2050. This report describes the methods and assumptions used in developing those benefit estimates. It begins with a summary of the results of the analysis based on an updated and refined model completed since the publication of the previous report. The framework described can be used to estimate the economic benefits to the U.S. of coordinated global action to increase the uptake of CETs worldwide. Together with a Monte Carlo simulation engine, the framework can be used to develop plausible ranges for benefits, taking into account the large uncertainty in the driving variables and economic parameters. The resulting estimates illustrate that larger global clean energy markets offer significant opportunities to the United States economy.

  1. Global Statistics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Crow, Ben D

    2006-01-01

    of Globalization: Statistics Weiss, L. (1997). "of Globalization: Statistics Milanovic, B. (1999). Truethe focus of global statistics, particularly in relation to

  2. Essays on pricing under uncertainty 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Escobari Urday, Diego Alfonso

    2008-10-10

    This dissertation analyzes pricing under uncertainty focusing on the U.S. airline industry. It sets to test theories of price dispersion driven by uncertainty in the demand by taking advantage of very detailed information about the dynamics...

  3. Predicting System Performance with Uncertainty 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yan, B.; Malkawi, A.

    2012-01-01

    The main purpose of this research is to include uncertainty that lies in modeling process and that arises from input values when predicting system performance, and to incorporate uncertainty related to system controls in a computationally...

  4. Dealing with uncertainty in estimating average annual flood damage for ungaged watersheds 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Toneatti, Silvana Victoria

    1996-01-01

    decades. A new risk-based analysis approach, currently being adopted in the United States, is based on modifying the conventional procedures to explicitly model the uncertainties involved in developing the required hydrologic, hydraulic, and economic...

  5. Life Cycle Regulation of Transportation Fuels: Uncertainty and its Policy Implications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard Jay

    2010-01-01

    2.3.2. Methodological issues with LCA . . .2.3.3. Attributional versus consequential LCA 2.3.4.Economic Input-Output LCA . . . . . 2.4. Uncertainty in

  6. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01

    First, it recovers historical oil price uncertainty seriesmore reliable historical oil price uncertainty series as itAs a result, the historical oil price uncertainty series is

  7. Influence of air quality model resolution on uncertainty associated with health impacts*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Influence of air quality model resolution on uncertainty associated with health impacts* Tammy M interactions among natural and human climate system components; objectively assess uncertainty in economic, monitor and verify greenhouse gas emissions and climatic impacts. This reprint is one of a series intended

  8. A Summary Report Fluctuating energy costs and economic uncertainties worldwide

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Minnesota, University of

    Paper Company Panel: Future Energy Scenarios and Public Policy Alternatives Moderator: Tim Henkel Freight Advisory Committee, and Manager, Freight Planning and Development, Mn/DOT Panelists: Aaron, Director, Modal Planning and Program Management Division, Mn/DOT Panelists: Saif Benjaafar, Director

  9. Economics of Defense in a Globalized World

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MCGUIRE, MARTIN C

    2006-01-01

    Kahn, H. (1959), On Thermonuclear War (Princeton Universityless grave than thermonuclear annihilation. That is, anfrom the threat of thermonuclear war deserves emphasis. Even

  10. E000308 economic development and the environment Economic development in low-income economies is initially highly resource-

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coxhead, Ian

    E000308 economic development and the environment Economic development in low-income economies sources of emissions that contribute to global climate change. Economic development depends on sustained drawdowns, may affect economic development in a dynamic interaction. This feedback is hard to quantify

  11. FINANCIAL ECONOMICS RESOURCE ECONOMICS AND POLICY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thomas, Andrew

    ECONOMICS FINANCIAL ECONOMICS RESOURCE ECONOMICS AND POLICY Program of Study The School of Economics at the University of Maine provides excellent opportunities for graduate students to study applied economics, financial economics, and policy analysis. The School of Economics administers the Master

  12. Sandia Energy - Uncertainty Analysis

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home RoomPreservation of Fe(II)GeothermalFuel MagnetizationTransportation EnergyUncertainty Analysis Home

  13. Sandia Energy - Uncertainty Quantification

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home RoomPreservation of Fe(II)GeothermalFuel MagnetizationTransportation EnergyUncertainty Analysis

  14. Coupled dynamics and economic analysis of floating wind turbine systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wayman, E. N. (Elizabeth N.)

    2006-01-01

    Against the backdrop of rising oil prices and increasing uncertainty in the future of energy and the health of the environment, wind energy is distinguished as a leading technology that is both technologically and economically ...

  15. Integrated Economic and Climate Projections for Impact Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paltsev, Sergey

    We designed scenarios for impact assessment that explicitly address policy choices and uncertainty in climate response. Economic projections and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions for the “no climate policy” scenario ...

  16. Cogeneration Economics 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mongon, A.

    1984-01-01

    Cogeneration of heat power is today receiving more attention by energy economists and policy makers - The enormous escalation of energy prices over the last decade has made energy efficiency an important economic factor for most energy users...

  17. Third Annual Summer Workshop in International Economics and Finance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Snider, Barry B.

    Third Annual Summer Workshop in International Economics and Finance And Rosenberg Institute of Global Finance Sunday, July 13 2014 Alumni Common

  18. Extended Forward Sensitivity Analysis for Uncertainty Quantification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haihua Zhao; Vincent A. Mousseau

    2011-09-01

    Verification and validation (V&V) are playing more important roles to quantify uncertainties and realize high fidelity simulations in engineering system analyses, such as transients happened in a complex nuclear reactor system. Traditional V&V in the reactor system analysis focused more on the validation part or did not differentiate verification and validation. The traditional approach to uncertainty quantification is based on a 'black box' approach. The simulation tool is treated as an unknown signal generator, a distribution of inputs according to assumed probability density functions is sent in and the distribution of the outputs is measured and correlated back to the original input distribution. The 'black box' method mixes numerical errors with all other uncertainties. It is also not efficient to perform sensitivity analysis. Contrary to the 'black box' method, a more efficient sensitivity approach can take advantage of intimate knowledge of the simulation code. In these types of approaches equations for the propagation of uncertainty are constructed and the sensitivities are directly solved for as variables in the simulation. This paper presents the forward sensitivity analysis as a method to help uncertainty qualification. By including time step and potentially spatial step as special sensitivity parameters, the forward sensitivity method is extended as one method to quantify numerical errors. Note that by integrating local truncation errors over the whole system through the forward sensitivity analysis process, the generated time step and spatial step sensitivity information reflect global numerical errors. The discretization errors can be systematically compared against uncertainties due to other physical parameters. This extension makes the forward sensitivity method a much more powerful tool to help uncertainty qualification. By knowing the relative sensitivity of time and space steps with other interested physical parameters, the simulation is allowed to run at optimized time and space steps without affecting the confidence of the physical parameter sensitivity results. The time and space steps forward sensitivity analysis method can also replace the traditional time step and grid convergence study with much less computational cost. Several well defined benchmark problems with manufactured solutions are utilized to demonstrate the extended forward sensitivity analysis method. All the physical solutions, parameter sensitivity solutions, even the time step sensitivity in one case, have analytical forms, which allows the verification to be performed in the strictest sense.

  19. Essays in Labor Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Harker Roa, Arturo

    2012-01-01

    Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Eco- nomicQuarterly Journal of Economics, August 1996, 111, 779-804. [Journal of Development Economics, 1996, 50, 297-312. [5

  20. Quantification of the impact of climate uncertainty on regional air quality

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liao, K.-J.

    Uncertainties in calculated impacts of climate forecasts on future regional air quality are investigated using downscaled MM5 meteorological fields from the NASA GISS and MIT IGSM global models and the CMAQ model in 2050 ...

  1. Desalination under uncertainty : understanding the role of contractual arrangements on the adoption of flexibility

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    AlMisnad, Abdulla

    2014-01-01

    The development of new infrastructure projects is a key part of global efforts to meet the demands of growing populations in times of increasing uncertainty. The deterministic approaches commonly used for the development ...

  2. Uncertainty in Scenarios of Human-Caused Climate NATHAN J MANTUA1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mantua, Nathan

    greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations, and second is the uncertainty associated for eliminating, or even vastly reducing, environmental uncertainty for the purpose of improved natural resource emerged on key aspects of global climate change: humans have unquestionably altered the composition

  3. Globalization Nationalized

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mazlish, Bruce

    Globalism and globalization have been seen as competitors to other allegiances, namely regionalism and nationalism. A look at recent efforts at reconceptualizing global history in China, Korea and the U.S., however, suggests ...

  4. Handling risk of uncertainty in model-based production optimization: a

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Van den Hof, Paul

    .d.Jansen@tudelft.nl) Abstract: Model-based economic optimization of oil production suffers from high levels of uncertainty, the secondary objective is aimed at maximizing the speed of oil production to mitigate risk. This multi and production data about the true values of the model parameters. Furthermore, economic variables such as oil

  5. The Global Grid

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chatzivasileiadis, Spyros; Andersson, Göran

    2012-01-01

    This paper puts forward the vision that a natural future stage of the electricity network could be a grid spanning the whole planet and connecting most of the large power plants in the world: this is the "Global Grid". The main driving force behind the Global Grid will be the harvesting of remote renewable sources, and its key infrastructure element will be the high capacity long transmission lines. Wind farms and solar power plants will supply load centers with green power over long distances. This paper focusses on the introduction of the concept, showing that a globally interconnected network can be technologically feasible and economically competitive. We further highlight the multiple opportunities emerging from a global electricity network such as smoothing the renewable energy supply and electricity demand, reducing the need for bulk storage, and reducing the volatility of the energy prices. We also discuss possible investment mechanisms and operating schemes. Among others, we envision in such a system...

  6. Brookhaven National Laboratory Economic Impact Report

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ohta, Shigemi

    economic climate, the greatest opportunities for local, national, and global growth rest with the time-tested National Laboratory The Economic Engine of World-Class Science National Synchrotron Light Sources NSLS Media & Communications Office (631) 344-2345 Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider RHIC smashes particles

  7. How incorporating more data reduces uncertainty in recovery predictions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Campozana, F.P.; Lake, L.W.; Sepehrnoori, K.

    1997-08-01

    From the discovery to the abandonment of a petroleum reservoir, there are many decisions that involve economic risks because of uncertainty in the production forecast. This uncertainty may be quantified by performing stochastic reservoir modeling (SRM); however, it is not practical to apply SRM every time the model is updated to account for new data. This paper suggests a novel procedure to estimate reservoir uncertainty (and its reduction) as a function of the amount and type of data used in the reservoir modeling. Two types of data are analyzed: conditioning data and well-test data. However, the same procedure can be applied to any other data type. Three performance parameters are suggested to quantify uncertainty. SRM is performed for the following typical stages: discovery, primary production, secondary production, and infill drilling. From those results, a set of curves is generated that can be used to estimate (1) the uncertainty for any other situation and (2) the uncertainty reduction caused by the introduction of new wells (with and without well-test data) into the description.

  8. Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Status Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harrison, Thomas J.

    2014-10-01

    This report describes the data collection work performed for an advanced small modular reactor (AdvSMR) economics analysis activity at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The methodology development and analytical results are described in separate, stand-alone documents as listed in the references. The economics analysis effort for the AdvSMR program combines the technical and fuel cycle aspects of advanced (non-light water reactor [LWR]) reactors with the market and production aspects of SMRs. This requires the collection, analysis, and synthesis of multiple unrelated and potentially high-uncertainty data sets from a wide range of data sources. Further, the nature of both economic and nuclear technology analysis requires at least a minor attempt at prediction and prognostication, and the far-term horizon for deployment of advanced nuclear systems introduces more uncertainty. Energy market uncertainty, especially the electricity market, is the result of the integration of commodity prices, demand fluctuation, and generation competition, as easily seen in deregulated markets. Depending on current or projected values for any of these factors, the economic attractiveness of any power plant construction project can change yearly or quarterly. For long-lead construction projects such as nuclear power plants, this uncertainty generates an implied and inherent risk for potential nuclear power plant owners and operators. The uncertainty in nuclear reactor and fuel cycle costs is in some respects better understood and quantified than the energy market uncertainty. The LWR-based fuel cycle has a long commercial history to use as its basis for cost estimation, and the current activities in LWR construction provide a reliable baseline for estimates for similar efforts. However, for advanced systems, the estimates and their associated uncertainties are based on forward-looking assumptions for performance after the system has been built and has achieved commercial operation. Advanced fuel materials and fabrication costs have large uncertainties based on complexities of operation, such as contact-handled fuel fabrication versus remote handling, or commodity availability. Thus, this analytical work makes a good faith effort to quantify uncertainties and provide qualifiers, caveats, and explanations for the sources of these uncertainties. The overall result is that this work assembles the necessary information and establishes the foundation for future analyses using more precise data as nuclear technology advances.

  9. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for photovoltaic system modeling.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hansen, Clifford W.; Pohl, Andrew Phillip; Jordan, Dirk

    2013-12-01

    We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling DC energy from photovoltaic systems. We consider two systems, each comprised of a single module using either crystalline silicon or CdTe cells, and located either at Albuquerque, NM, or Golden, CO. Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. Uncertainty in the output of each model is quantified by empirical distributions of each model's residuals. We sample these distributions to propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models to obtain an empirical distribution for each PV system's output. We considered models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane-of-array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance from plane-of-array irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; and (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power. We found that the uncertainty in PV system output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. Four alternative models were considered for the POA irradiance modeling step; we did not find the choice of one of these models to be of great significance. However, we observed that the POA irradiance model introduced a bias of upwards of 5% of daily energy which translates directly to a systematic difference in predicted energy. Sensitivity analyses relate uncertainty in the PV system output to uncertainty arising from each model. We found that the residuals arising from the POA irradiance and the effective irradiance models to be the dominant contributors to residuals for daily energy, for either technology or location considered. This analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output should focus on improvements to the POA and effective irradiance models.

  10. Global climate feedbacks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Manowitz, B.

    1990-10-01

    The important physical, chemical, and biological events that affect global climate change occur on a mesoscale -- requiring high spatial resolution for their analysis. The Department of Energy has formulated two major initiatives under the US Global Change Program: ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurements), and CHAMMP (Computer Hardware Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics). ARM is designed to use ground and air-craft based observations to document profiles of atmospheric composition, clouds, and radiative fluxes. With research and models of important physical processes, ARM will delineate the relationships between trace gases, aerosol and cloud structure, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, and will improve the parameterization of global circulation models. The present GCMs do not model important feedbacks, including those from clouds, oceans, and land processes. The purpose of this workshop is to identify such potential feedbacks, to evaluate the uncertainties in the feedback processes (and, if possible, to parameterize the feedback processes so that they can be treated in a GCM), and to recommend research programs that will reduce the uncertainties in important feedback processes. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases.

  11. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, Jerry; Ruane, Alex; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, Peter; Rotter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, AJ; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, Robert; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Mueller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.O.; Olesen, JE; Osborne, T.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.

    2013-09-01

    Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments1,2. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change has been increasingly described in the literature3,4 while assessments of the uncertainty in crop responses to climate change are very rare. Systematic and objective comparisons across impact studies is difficult, and thus has not been fully realized5. Here we present the largest coordinated and standardized crop model intercomparison for climate change impacts on wheat production to date. We found that several individual crop models are able to reproduce measured grain yields under current diverse environments, particularly if sufficient details are provided to execute them. However, simulated climate change impacts can vary across models due to differences in model structures and algorithms. The crop-model component of uncertainty in climate change impact assessments was considerably larger than the climate-model component from Global Climate Models (GCMs). Model responses to high temperatures and temperature-by-CO2 interactions are identified as major sources of simulated impact uncertainties. Significant reductions in impact uncertainties through model improvements in these areas and improved quantification of uncertainty through multi-model ensembles are urgently needed for a more reliable translation of climate change scenarios into agricultural impacts in order to develop adaptation strategies and aid policymaking.

  12. Fuel economizer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zwierzelewski, V.F.

    1984-06-26

    A fuel economizer device for use with an internal combustion engine fitted with a carburetor is disclosed. The fuel economizer includes a plate member which is mounted between the carburetor and the intake portion of the intake manifold. The plate member further has at least one aperture formed therein. One tube is inserted through the at least one aperture in the plate member. The one tube extends longitudinally in the passage of the intake manifold from the intake portion toward the exit portion thereof. The one tube concentrates the mixture of fuel and air from the carburetor and conveys the mixture of fuel and air to a point adjacent but spaced away from the inlet port of the internal combustion engine.

  13. Economic analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    1980-06-01

    The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

  14. Economic and policy implications of pandemic influenza.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Braeton J.; Starks, Shirley J.; Loose, Verne W.; Brown, Theresa Jean; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-03-01

    Pandemic influenza has become a serious global health concern; in response, governments around the world have allocated increasing funds to containment of public health threats from this disease. Pandemic influenza is also recognized to have serious economic implications, causing illness and absence that reduces worker productivity and economic output and, through mortality, robs nations of their most valuable assets - human resources. This paper reports two studies that investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic flu outbreak. Policy makers can use the growing number of economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. Experts recognize that pandemic influenza has serious global economic implications. The illness causes absenteeism, reduced worker productivity, and therefore reduced economic output. This, combined with the associated mortality rate, robs nations of valuable human resources. Policy makers can use economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. In this paper economists examine two studies which investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak. Resulting policy implications are also discussed. The research uses the Regional Economic Modeling, Inc. (REMI) Policy Insight + Model. This model provides a dynamic, regional, North America Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry-structured framework for forecasting. It is supported by a population dynamics model that is well-adapted to investigating macro-economic implications of pandemic influenza, including possible demand side effects. The studies reported in this paper exercise all of these capabilities.

  15. Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2013-04-13

    This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

  16. Essays in Labor Economics and Development Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yakovlev, Evgeny

    2012-01-01

    Russian Style." Journal of Public Economics 76(3):337-368Examples)”, RAND Journal of Economics, Summer. Bertrand,Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(1):249-275. Bhattacharya,

  17. Essays in Applied Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Crost, Benjamin

    2011-01-01

    A. D. 2008, Review of Economics and Statistics, 90, 191J. 2008, Journal of Health Economics, 27, 218 Blattman, C. &Ilmakunnas, P. 2009, Health Economics, 18, 161 Caliendo,

  18. Essays in Regulatory Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guerrero, Santiago

    2011-01-01

    Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 58(2) (Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (2009), inevidence. ” Eastern Economics Journal, 23 (3) (1997), 253-

  19. Essays in behavioral economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eil, David Holding

    2011-01-01

    Essays in Behavioral Economics A dissertation submitted inDoctor of Philosophy in Economics by David Holding Eilfunction,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1995,

  20. Essays in Development Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bazzi, Samuel Ali

    are weak,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 2004, 86,Essays in Development Economics A dissertation submitted indegree Doctor of Philosophy in Economics by Samuel Ali Bazzi

  1. Essays in Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Romem, Israel Hadas

    2013-01-01

    Science and Urban Economics 41 (1), 67 – 76. Anenberg, E. (Dynamics. Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-48.University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations

  2. Essays in Labor Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Freeman, Donald Eric

    2010-01-01

    staff at IRLE and the Economics Depart- ment, especiallyof New Employees,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 1985,Firm Level,” Journal of Labor Economics, 1993, 11, 442–470.

  3. Policy Uncertainty and Household Savings

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giavazzi, Francesco

    Using German microdata and a quasi-natural experiment, we provide evidence on how households respond to an increase in uncertainty. We find that household saving increases significantly following the increase in political ...

  4. Energy and environmental policy and electric utilities' choice under uncertain global warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Takahashi, Masaki

    1992-01-01

    The paper reviews and discusses uncertainty about global warming science, impact on society. It also discusses what assumptions have been made and how appropriate the assumptions in scenarios have been for estimating global ...

  5. MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) Version 2: Model Description and Baseline Evaluation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sokolov, Andrei P.

    The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) is designed for analyzing the global environmental changes that may result from anthropogenic causes, quantifying the uncertainties associated with the projected changes, and ...

  6. Ecological economizer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peterson, E.M.

    1992-06-16

    This patent describes an engine economizer system adapted to supply an internal combustion engine with a heated air and water vapor mixture. It comprises a containment vessel, the vessel having: water level control means, an engine coolant fluid circuit, an engine lubricant circuit, an elongated air passage, air disbursement means, a water reservoir, air filter means, a vacuum aspiration port, and engine induction means associated with one of the carburetor and intake manifold and adapted to draw in the heated air and water vapor mixture by means of a hose connection to the aspiration port.

  7. Game Theory for auctions Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dignum, Frank

    widenarrow¬drillThe world is uncertain: 60% chance for oil 40% chance of no oil -29,-2-29,-16-29,0wide -16 in static games #12;Exogenous uncertainty, static 1,116,-131,0wide -1,1614,1444,0narrow 0,310,440,0¬drill,-2-16,-16-16,0narrow 0,-290,-160,0¬drill widenarrow¬drill #12;Exogenous uncertainty, static Combine the two possible

  8. Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory and Information Content of New Measurements Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Quantification...

  9. Uncertainty quantification for CO2 sequestration and enhanced oil recovery

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dai, Zhenxue; Fessenden-Rahn, Julianna; Middleton, Richard; Pan, Feng; Jia, Wei; Lee, Si-Yong; McPherson, Brian; Ampomah, William; Grigg, Reid

    2014-01-01

    This study develops a statistical method to perform uncertainty quantification for understanding CO2 storage potential within an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) environment at the Farnsworth Unit of the Anadarko Basin in northern Texas. A set of geostatistical-based Monte Carlo simulations of CO2-oil-water flow and reactive transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for global sensitivity and statistical analysis of the major uncertainty metrics: net CO2 injection, cumulative oil production, cumulative gas (CH4) production, and net water injection. A global sensitivity and response surface analysis indicates that reservoir permeability, porosity, and thickness are the major intrinsic reservoir parameters that control net CO2 injection/storage and oil/gas recovery rates. The well spacing and the initial water saturation also have large impact on the oil/gas recovery rates. Further, this study has revealed key insights into the potential behavior and the operational parameters of CO2 sequestration at CO2-EOR s...

  10. PROBABILISTIC SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS WORKSHOP SUMMARY REPORT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seitz, R

    2008-06-25

    Stochastic or probabilistic modeling approaches are being applied more frequently in the United States and globally to quantify uncertainty and enhance understanding of model response in performance assessments for disposal of radioactive waste. This increased use has resulted in global interest in sharing results of research and applied studies that have been completed to date. This technical report reflects the results of a workshop that was held to share results of research and applied work related to performance assessments conducted at United States Department of Energy sites. Key findings of this research and applied work are discussed and recommendations for future activities are provided.

  11. Essays in Development Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Keats, Anthony

    2012-01-01

    Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of EconomicJournal of Development Economics 87(1): 57-75. [21] Ozier,Journal of Development Economics 94, 151-163. [9] Delavande,

  12. On economic bicameralism

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ferreras, Isabelle, 1975-

    2004-01-01

    (cont.) for both economic profitability and democratic justice, is explored after the roots of the idea of economic bicameralism in socio-economic history and existing socio-economic institutions (such as Works Councils) ...

  13. Needed : a realistic strategy for global warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Schmalensee, Richard.

    Through a brief look at the science and economics of climate, the authors show that if climate change turns out to be a serious threat, an effective response will require a substantial and very long-term global effort. ...

  14. Global Energy: Supply, Demand, Consequences, Opportunities

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Majumdar, Arun

    2010-01-08

    July 29, 2008 Berkeley Lab lecture: Arun Majumdar, Director of the Environmental Energy Technologies Division, discusses current and future projections of economic growth, population, and global energy demand and supply, and explores the implications of these trends for the environment.

  15. Evolving a global armaments logistics strategy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peck, Nathan (Nathan W.)

    2009-01-01

    Few companies globally source and manage commercial transportation for frequent and high volumes of explosive cargo for the U. S. Department of Defense. U.S. regulations are strict and economically competitive options are ...

  16. Economic Incentives of Providing Network Security Services Journal of Information Technology Management 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Li-Chiou

    Economic Incentives of Providing Network Security Services Journal of Information Technology Management 1 THE ECONOMIC INCENTIVES OF PROVIDING NETWORK SECURITY SERVICES ON THE INTERNET INFRASTRUCTURE Li in the economic incentives inherent in providing the defenses as well as uncertainty in current defenses. We

  17. Economics & Finance Degree options

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brierley, Andrew

    90 Economics & Finance Degree options MA or BSc (Single Honours Degrees) Applied Economics Economics Financial Economics BA (International Honours Degree) Economics (See page 43) MA or BSc (Joint Honours Degrees) Economics and one of: Geography Management Mathematics MA (Joint Honours Degrees

  18. Economics & Finance Degree options

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brierley, Andrew

    98 Economics & Finance Degree options MA or BSc (Single Honours Degrees) Applied Economics Economics Financial Economics BA (International Honours Degree) Economics (See page 51) MA or BSc (Joint Honours Degrees) Economics and one of: Geography Management Mathematics MA (Joint Honours Degrees

  19. Global crop yield losses from recent warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lobell, D; Field, C

    2006-06-02

    Global yields of the world-s six most widely grown crops--wheat, rice, maize, soybeans, barley, sorghum--have increased since 1961. Year-to-year variations in growing season minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation explain 30% or more of the variations in yield. Since 1991, climate trends have significantly decreased yield trends in all crops but rice, leading to foregone production since 1981 of about 12 million tons per year of wheat or maize, representing an annual economic loss of $1.2 to $1.7 billion. At the global scale, negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields are already apparent. Annual global temperatures have increased by {approx}0.4 C since 1980, with even larger changes observed in several regions (1). While many studies have considered the impacts of future climate changes on food production (2-5), the effects of these past changes on agriculture remain unclear. It is likely that warming has improved yields in some areas, reduced them in others, and had negligible impacts in still others; the relative balance of these effects at the global scale is unknown. An understanding of this balance would help to anticipate impacts of future climate changes, as well as to more accurately assess recent (and thereby project future) technologically driven yield progress. Separating the contribution of climate from concurrent changes in other factors--such as crop cultivars, management practices, soil quality, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) levels--requires models that describe the response of yields to climate. Studies of future global impacts of climate change have typically relied on a bottom-up approach, whereby field scale, process-based models are applied to hundreds of representative sites and then averaged (e.g., ref 2). Such approaches require input data on soil and management conditions, which are often difficult to obtain. Limitations on data quality or quantity can thus limit the utility of this approach, especially at the local scale (6-8). At the global scale, however, many of the processes and impacts captured by field scale models will tend to cancel out, and therefore simpler empirical/statistical models with fewer input requirements may be as accurate (8, 9). Empirical/statistical models also allow the effects of poorly modeled processes (e.g., pest dynamics) to be captured and uncertainties to be readily quantified (10). Here we develop new, empirical/statistical models of global yield responses to climate using datasets on broad-scale yields, crop locations, and climate variability. We focus on global average yields for the six most widely grown crops in the world: wheat, rice, maize, soybeans, barley, and sorghum. Production of these crops accounts for over 40% of global cropland area (11). 55% of non-meat calories, and over 70% of animal feed (12).

  20. Sensitivity of Climate Change Projections to Uncertainties in the Estimates of Observed Changes in Deep-Ocean Heat Content

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sokolov, Andrei P.

    The MIT 2D climate model is used to make probabilistic projections for changes in global mean surface temperature and for thermosteric sea level rise under a variety of forcing scenarios. The uncertainties in climate ...

  1. Climate Extremes, Uncertainty and Impacts Climate Change Challenge: The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Climate Extremes, Uncertainty and Impacts Climate Change Challenge: The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, AR4) has resulted in a wider acceptance of global climate change climate extremes and change impacts. Uncertainties in process studies, climate models, and associated

  2. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01

    historical uncertainty series by incorporating a realized volatility series from daily oil price data

  3. The Trend of Global Capitalism Qiudong Wang

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Quidong

    , including Russia and east Europe countries, India, China, Mexico, South America and Africa, are relative the history, the present and the future trend of politic and economic relationship between developed and under strategic initiatives in the on-going global politic and economic game. The most serious threat

  4. Davis-Besse uncertainty study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, C B

    1987-08-01

    The uncertainties of calculations of loss-of-feedwater transients at Davis-Besse Unit 1 were determined to address concerns of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission relative to the effectiveness of feed and bleed cooling. Davis-Besse Unit 1 is a pressurized water reactor of the raised-loop Babcock and Wilcox design. A detailed, quality-assured RELAP5/MOD2 model of Davis-Besse was developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The model was used to perform an analysis of the loss-of-feedwater transient that occurred at Davis-Besse on June 9, 1985. A loss-of-feedwater transient followed by feed and bleed cooling was also calculated. The evaluation of uncertainty was based on the comparisons of calculations and data, comparisons of different calculations of the same transient, sensitivity calculations, and the propagation of the estimated uncertainty in initial and boundary conditions to the final calculated results.

  5. Global Predictions 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Swyden, Courtney

    2006-01-01

    stream_source_info Global Predictions.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 7503 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name Global Predictions.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 Every morning... drought index is based on a daily water balance, where a drought factor is calculated with precipitation and soil moisture,? Srinivasan said. Global Predictions Story by Courtney Swyden Global Predictions Lab uses advanced technologies to forecast...

  6. Review on Generalized Uncertainty Principle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tawfik, Abdel Nasser

    2015-01-01

    Based on string theory, black hole physics, doubly special relativity and some "thought" experiments, minimal distance and/or maximum momentum are proposed. As alternatives to the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP), the modified dispersion relation, the space noncommutativity, the Lorentz invariance violation, and the quantum-gravity-induced birefringence effects are summarized. The origin of minimal measurable quantities and the different GUP approaches are reviewed and the corresponding observations are analysed. Bounds on the GUP parameter are discussed and implemented in understanding recent PLANCK observations on the cosmic inflation. The higher-order GUP approaches predict minimal length uncertainty with and without maximum momenta.

  7. Review on Generalized Uncertainty Principle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel Nasser Tawfik; Abdel Magied Diab

    2015-09-22

    Based on string theory, black hole physics, doubly special relativity and some "thought" experiments, minimal distance and/or maximum momentum are proposed. As alternatives to the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP), the modified dispersion relation, the space noncommutativity, the Lorentz invariance violation, and the quantum-gravity-induced birefringence effects are summarized. The origin of minimal measurable quantities and the different GUP approaches are reviewed and the corresponding observations are analysed. Bounds on the GUP parameter are discussed and implemented in understanding recent PLANCK observations on the cosmic inflation. The higher-order GUP approaches predict minimal length uncertainty with and without maximum momenta.

  8. Yes, your ideas and our technologies can contribute to economic, social and environmental progress. Alstom is a global leader in the world of power generation and rail infrastructure and sets the benchmark for innovative and environmentally

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . Alstom is a global leader in the world of power generation and rail infrastructure and sets the benchmark capacity automated metros in the world, and provides integrated power plant solutions and associated services for a wide variety of energy sources, including wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, ocean (wave), gas

  9. Pharmaceutical Waste Management Under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Linninger, Andreas A.

    Pharmaceutical Waste Management Under Uncertainty Andreas A. Linninger and Aninda Chakraborty of their benefits and costs constitutes a formidable task. Designing plant-wide waste management policies assuming this article addresses the problem of finding optimal waste management policies for entire manufacturing sites

  10. The MIT EPPA6 Model: Economic Growth, Energy Use, and Food Consumption

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Y.-H.H.

    The MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model has been broadly applied on energy and climate policy analyses. In this paper, we provide an updated version of the model based on the most recent global economic ...

  11. A global warning for global warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Paepe, R.

    1996-12-31

    The problem of global warming is a complex one not only because it is affecting desert areas such as the Sahel leading to famine disasters of poor rural societies, but because it is an even greater threat to modern well established industrial societies. Global warming is a complex problem of geographical, economical and societal factors together which definitely are biased by local environmental parameters. There is an absolute need to increase the knowledge of such parameters, especially to understand their limits of variance. The greenhouse effect is a global mechanism which means that in changing conditions at one point of the Earth, it will affect all other regions of the globe. Industrial pollution and devastation of the forest are quoted as similar polluting anthropogenic activities in far apart regions of the world with totally different societies and industrial compounds. The other important factor is climatic cyclicity which means that droughts are bound to natural cycles. These natural cycles are numerous as is reflected in the study of geo-proxydata from several sequential geological series on land, ice and deepsea. Each of these cycles reveals a drought cycle which occasionally interfere at the same time. It is believed that the present drought might well be a point of interference between the natural cycles of 2,500 and 1,000 years and the man induced cycle of the last century`s warming up. If the latter is the only cycle involved, man will be able to remediate. If not, global warming will become even more disastrous beyond the 21st century.

  12. Experimental uncertainty estimation and statistics for data having interval uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Oberkampf, William Louis; Ginzburg, Lev; Ferson, Scott; Hajagos, Janos

    2007-05-01

    This report addresses the characterization of measurements that include epistemic uncertainties in the form of intervals. It reviews the application of basic descriptive statistics to data sets which contain intervals rather than exclusively point estimates. It describes algorithms to compute various means, the median and other percentiles, variance, interquartile range, moments, confidence limits, and other important statistics and summarizes the computability of these statistics as a function of sample size and characteristics of the intervals in the data (degree of overlap, size and regularity of widths, etc.). It also reviews the prospects for analyzing such data sets with the methods of inferential statistics such as outlier detection and regressions. The report explores the tradeoff between measurement precision and sample size in statistical results that are sensitive to both. It also argues that an approach based on interval statistics could be a reasonable alternative to current standard methods for evaluating, expressing and propagating measurement uncertainties.

  13. Global energy and global precipitation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Global energy and global precipitation or Why doesn't precipitation increase as Clausias expect precipitation to increase at the same rate. · Rest of this brief talk is to show you why Heat Flux (S) 20 W/m2 Atmospheric heating from precipitation LP Atmosphere has small heat capacity. So

  14. Essays on health economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shafrin, Jason T.

    2009-01-01

    The Quarterly Journal of Economics Davidson SM, Manheim LM,The Quarterly Journal of Economics 84(3): 488-500. Atella V,data. Journal of Health Economics 27(3): 770-785. Averett S

  15. Essays in Team Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tumlinson, Justin

    2011-01-01

    3] Becker, G. , The Economics of Discrimination. UniversityEngland and Wales. ”Labour Economics, 7 (2000): 603-28. [5]The Bell Journal of Economics, 13 (1982): [11] Judge, T.

  16. Essays in Development Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hicks, Joan Hamory

    2009-01-01

    Handbook of Development Economics, Volume I (pp. 713-762).Journal of Development Economics, 81, 80-96. Behrman, JereJournal of Development Economics, 79, 349-373. Dercon,

  17. Essays in Financial Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shabani, Reza

    2012-01-01

    Journal of Financial Economics 92:66–91. [7] Chen, J. , H.G.Journal of Financial Economics 66:171–205. [8] Harrison,Journal of Financial Economics 66:207–239. [15] Keown,

  18. Essays in monetary economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ghent, Andra C.

    2008-01-01

    rium. Journal of Urban Economics 9, 332-348. Whelan, K. ,Framework. Journal of Monetary Economics 12, 383-398. Chari,Journal of Monetary Economics 46, 281-313. Fernald, J. ,

  19. Essays in Public Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liscow, Zachary

    2012-01-01

    a Battleground. ” Defense Economics, 2: 219-233. Bailey, TA,Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112: 1057-1090. Coakley, J.Goldin, C. 1973. “The Economics of Emancipation. ” Journal

  20. Essays in Energy Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Spurlock, Cecily Anna

    2013-01-01

    of work,” Journal of Labor Economics, pp. 209–236. Chen, X.Regional science and urban economics, 12(3), 313–324.2009): “Psychology and economics: Evidence from the field,”

  1. Essays on International Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cravino, Javier Pablo

    2013-01-01

    Journal of International Economics, Vol. 65, 375–99. [33]Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 51, No. 1, pp. 1–32. [Trade”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 54, No. 6, pp.

  2. Review: Forest Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Helman, Daniel S.

    2015-01-01

    Review: Forest Economics By Daowei Zhang and Peter H. PearsePearse, Peter H. Forest Economics. Vancouver, BC: UBC Press,Zhang and Pearse's Forest Economics presents a clear and

  3. Essays in Applied Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rider, Jessica Kristin

    2013-01-01

    Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 41(1):82, [8]hard times. Journal of Health Economics, [31] C.J. Ruhm. AreJournal of Agricultural Economics, 87(5):1159– [2] J.K.

  4. Essays in Environmental Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gallagher, Justin

    2011-01-01

    sites. RAND Journal of Economics, 27(3), 1996. [57] Robertequations. Journal of Urban Economics, 10(1), July 1981. [Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1), February 2001. [16

  5. Essays in labor economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chou, Tiffany

    2011-01-01

    Journal of Population Economics , 15(4), 667-682. Akerlof,A. & Rachel E. Kranton. (2000). Economics and Identity.Quarterly Journal of Economics , 115(3), 715-753. Albanesi,

  6. Essays in Public Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Insook

    2013-01-01

    Evasion and Labour Supply" Economics Let- ters, 3(1): 53-among Siblings" Review of Economics and Statistics, 86 (2):Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87 (4): 608-626. [22

  7. Essays in Financial Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sohn, Sung Bin

    2012-01-01

    Journal of Financial Economics, 67, 149– Asquith, P. and D.Journal of Financial Economics, 15, 61–89. Back, K. and J.The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113, 869–902. Blanchard,

  8. Essays in Environmental Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Foreman, Kathleen

    2013-01-01

    Regional Sci- ence and Urban Economics, 22(1):103–121, MarchBridge. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 14(2):pp.Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 5(1):66 – 88,

  9. Essays in Public Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wingender, Philippe

    2011-01-01

    The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4), 1329-1368.eds. , Handbook of Labor Economics, Vol.3. Bound, J. ,Journal of Labor Economics, 19(1), 22-64. Chen, X. and

  10. Global decarbonization strategies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Messner, S.

    1996-12-31

    The presentation covers a brief summary of the research activities of the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies Project (ECS) at IIASA. The overall research focuses on long-term global energy development and emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). The ultimate goal is to analyze strategies that achieve decarbonization of global energy systems during the next century. The specific activities range from mitigation of GHG emissions to an integrated assessment of climate change. One focal point is the GHG mitigation technology inventory CO{sub 2}DB, which presently covers approximately 1,400 technologies related to energy and the greenhouse effect. Another integral part is the development of global energy and emissions scenarios, an effort involving a number of formal models to assess the implications. A large number of global scenarios for the next century has been developed, that could be grouped into three families. All of them include energy efficiency improvements and some degree of decarbonization in the world. They are based on different economic and technological development trajectories, and their emissions range from very high to a stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions. The presentation will outline the salient characteristics of the three scenario families and provide some regional implications of these alternative futures.

  11. Regional, Economic, and Environmental Implications of Dual Ethanol Technologies in Brazil

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guerrero Compean, Roberto

    Climate change, food security, and energy efficiency have become universal challenges for global economic development and environmental conservation that demand in-depth multidisciplinary research. Biofuels have emerged ...

  12. Regional, economic, and environmental effects of traditional and biotechnologically enhanced ethanol production processes in Brazil

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guerrero Compeán, Roberto

    2008-01-01

    Climate change, food security, and energy efficiency have become universal challenges for global economic development and environmental conservation that demand in-depth multidisciplinary research. Biofuels have emerged ...

  13. Economic and Production Impacts of the 2009 California Film and Television Tax Credit

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Appelbaum, Lauren D; Tilly, Chris; Huang, Juliet

    2012-01-01

    July). Film flight: Lost production and its economic impactM. M. (2006). Hollywood movie production industry: FloatingThe global success of production tax incentives and the

  14. The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schlenker, Wolfram; Hanemann, W. Michael; Fisher, Anthony C.

    2004-01-01

    Really Bene?t From Global Warming? Accounting for IrrigationR. , The Economics of Global Warming, Washington, D.C. :1992. , “The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture:

  15. Occupy economic anthropology

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maurer, B

    2012-01-01

    House. Hann, C. & K. Hart 2011. Economic anthropology:University of Minnesota Press. Hart, K. , J. -L. Laville &works, Chris Hann and Keith Hart’s Economic anthropology (

  16. What is the value of scientific knowledge? An application to global warminig using the PRICE model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nordhaus, W.D.; Popp, D.

    1997-02-01

    The question that this study addresses is: What is the value of the new knowledge about climate change? If natural and social scientists succeed in improving their understanding, what will be the payoff in terms of improved economic performance? For example, if the uncertainties are resolved in favor of those who argue that global warming will be minimal or beneficial, then this knowledge will allow countries to avoid expensive investments in non-carbon energy technologies or in expensive conservation efforts. On the other hand, if the worst fears prove correct, then the globe can mend its ways early so as to prevent later dislocations, famines, or inundations. To the extent that the investments are expensive or the consequences are grave, early information can be extremely valuable. 15 refs., 8 figs.

  17. Energy, efficiency and economic growth: a coevolutionary perspective and implications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mound, Jon

    global deal 3. Adaptation to climate change and human development 4. Governments, markets and climate. Adapting to environmental change and governance for sustainability are the Institute's overarching themes and environmental change; environmental policy, planning and governance; ecological and environmental economics

  18. Environmental Processes, Social Perspectives and Economic Valuations of the Coast 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Williams, Amy M.

    2011-10-21

    Coastal ecosystems provide important resources for social, economic and environmental capital to global and local communities. Socially, coastal ecosystems provide a place for people to recreate and get in touch with nature. ...

  19. The Economics of Slums in the Developing World

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marx, Benjamin

    The global expansion of urban slums poses questions for economic research as well as problems for policymakers. We provide evidence that the type of poverty observed in contemporary slums of the developing world is ...

  20. December 2008 Uncertainty and Production Planning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Graves, Stephen C.

    December 2008 Uncertainty and Production Planning Stephen C. Graves MIT 77 Massachusetts Avenue, E how uncertainty is handled in production planning. We describe and critique current practices decisions that are critical to the proper handling of uncertainty in production planning. We observe

  1. Quantum Mechanics and the Generalized Uncertainty Principle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jang Young Bang; Micheal S. Berger

    2006-11-30

    The generalized uncertainty principle has been described as a general consequence of incorporating a minimal length from a theory of quantum gravity. We consider a simple quantum mechanical model where the operator corresponding to position has discrete eigenvalues and show how the generalized uncertainty principle results for minimum uncertainty wave packets.

  2. space holder Fisheries Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    #12;#12;space holder Fisheries Economics of the United States, 2011 Economics and Social Analysis Citation: National Marine Fisheries Service. 2012. Fisheries Economics of the United States, 2011. U/publication/index.html. A copy of this report may be obtained from: Economics and Social Analysis Division

  3. DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kunkle, Tom

    DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE ANNUAL REPORT AY 2013-2014 School of Business 5 Liberty St and change to the Department of Economics and Finance. A revised economics curriculum, a new finance major the department will be divided into two. The Department of Economics will be chaired by Calvin Blackwell

  4. Experimental Economics: Where Next?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Strien, Sebastian van

    Experimental Economics: Where Next? Ken Binmore Economics Dept University College Gower Street London WC1E 6BT United Kingdom Avner Shaked Economics Dept Bonn University Adenauerallee 24 53113 Bonn Germany Abstract: Where should experimental economics go next? This paper uses the literature on inequity

  5. Global energy - assessing the future

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edmonds, J.; Reiley, J.M.

    1985-01-01

    This book applies various forecasts of energy use to the CO/sub 2/ problem. The effect of demographic factors and economic growth on energy consumption are considered and a model is proposed relating energy consumption and carbon dioxide; predictions are made up to the year 2050 and the uncertainties in these long-term energy projections considered. Energy forms taken into account include oil and gas (both conventional and unconventional), coal, nuclear energy, solar and wind power, hydroelectricity and ocean thermal energy conversion systems and biomass.

  6. 1 Economics The study of economics investigates the consequences of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vertes, Akos

    1 Economics ECONOMICS The study of economics investigates the consequences of scarcity, which forces people, organizations and governments to choose among competing objectives. Economics looks, unemployment, inflation, economic growth and the use and distribution of resources within and across nations

  7. Quantification of Uncertainties in Nuclear Density Functional theory

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    N. Schunck; J. D. McDonnell; D. Higdon; J. Sarich; S. Wild

    2014-09-17

    Reliable predictions of nuclear properties are needed as much to answer fundamental science questions as in applications such as reactor physics or data evaluation. Nuclear density functional theory is currently the only microscopic, global approach to nuclear structure that is applicable throughout the nuclear chart. In the past few years, a lot of effort has been devoted to setting up a general methodology to assess theoretical uncertainties in nuclear DFT calculations. In this paper, we summarize some of the recent progress in this direction. Most of the new material discussed here will be be published in separate articles.

  8. PDF uncertainties at large x and gauge boson production

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Accardi, Alberto

    2012-10-01

    I discuss how global QCD fits of parton distribution functions can make the somewhat separated fields of high-energy particle physics and lower energy hadronic and nuclear physics interact to the benefit of both. In particular, I will argue that large rapidity gauge boson production at the Tevatron and the LHC has the highest short-term potential to constrain the theoretical nuclear corrections to DIS data on deuteron targets necessary for up/down flavor separation. This in turn can considerably reduce the PDF uncertainty on cross section calculations of heavy mass particles such as W' and Z' bosons.

  9. Global Solutions

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefieldSulfateSciTechtail.Theory ofDid you not findGeoscience/EnvironmentGlobal Security Global Security

  10. Global Warming

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration would likeUniverse (Journalvivo Low-Dose Low LETUseful LinksGlass StrongerGlobalOn1 Global

  11. Value of global weather sensors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Canavan, G.H.

    1998-12-23

    Long-range weather predictions have great scientific and economic potential, but require precise global observations. Small balloon transponders could serve as lagrangian trace particles to measure the vector wind, which is the primary input to long-range numerical forecasts. The wind field is difficult to measure; it is at present poorly sampled globally. Distance measuring equipment (DME) triangulation of signals from roughly a million transponders could sample it with sufficient accuracy to support {approximately} two week forecasts. Such forecasts would have great scientific and economic potential which is estimated below. DME uses small, low-power transmitters on each transponder to broadcast short, low-power messages that are detected by several small receivers and forwarded to the ground station for processing of position, velocity, and state information. Thus, the transponder is little more than a balloon with a small radio, which should only weigh a few grams and cost a few dollars.

  12. The MIT EPPA6 Model: Economic Growth, Energy Use,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    The MIT EPPA6 Model: Economic Growth, Energy Use, and Food Consumption Y.-H. Henry Chen, Sergey for Global Change Science (CGCS) and the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR of global environment and energy challenges, thereby contributing to informed debate about climate change

  13. The Impact of Satellite-Derived Land Cover Uncertainty on Carbon Cycle Calculations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    O'Hagan, Tony

    plays a central role in the Earth's carbon cycle. Globally, anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is that it represents a net imbalance between uptake of carbon by growth processes and emissions of carbon due1 The Impact of Satellite-Derived Land Cover Uncertainty on Carbon Cycle Calculations Keith Harris

  14. PDF uncertainties on the W boson mass measurement from the lepton transverse momentum distribution

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giuseppe Bozzi; Luca Citelli; Alessandro Vicini

    2015-05-22

    We study the charged current Drell-Yan process and we evaluate the proton parton densities uncertainties on the lepton transverse momentum distribution and their impact on the determination of the W-boson mass. We consider the global PDF sets CT10, MSTW2008CPdeut, NNPDF2.3, NNPDF3.0, MMHT2014, and apply the PDF4LHC recipe to combine the individual results, obtaining an uncertainty on MW that ranges between +-18 and +-24 MeV, depending on the final state, collider energy and kind. We discuss the dependence of the uncertainty on the acceptance cuts and the role of the individual parton densities in the final result. We remark that some PDF sets predict an uncertainty on MW of O(10 MeV); this encouraging result is spoiled, in the combined analysis of the different sets, by an important spread of the central values predicted by each group.

  15. PDF uncertainties on the W boson mass measurement from the lepton transverse momentum distribution

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bozzi, Giuseppe; Vicini, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    We study the charged current Drell-Yan process and we evaluate the proton parton densities uncertainties on the lepton transverse momentum distribution and their impact on the determination of the W-boson mass. We consider the global PDF sets CT10, MSTW2008CPdeut, NNPDF2.3, NNPDF3.0, MMHT2014, and apply the PDF4LHC recipe to combine the individual results, obtaining an uncertainty on MW that ranges between +-18 and +-24 MeV, depending on the final state, collider energy and kind. We discuss the dependence of the uncertainty on the acceptance cuts and the role of the individual parton densities in the final result. We remark that some PDF sets predict an uncertainty on MW of O(10 MeV); this encouraging result is spoiled, in the combined analysis of the different sets, by an important spread of the central values predicted by each group.

  16. Are we seeing global warming?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hasselmann, K.

    1997-05-09

    Despite considerable progress, the question of whether the observed gradual increase in global mean temperature over the last century is indeed caused by human activities or is simply an expression of natural climate variation on a larger spatial and temporal scales remains a controversial issue. To answer this question three things are needed: prediction of the anthropogenic climate change signal; determination of the natural climate variability noise; and computation of the signal-to-noise ratio and test of whether the ratio exceeds some predefined statistical detection threshold. This article discusses all these issues and the uncertainties involved in getting definitive answers. 12 refs., 1 fig.

  17. BiGGAR Economics Economic Impact

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Millar, Andrew J.

    Living with Climate Change Renewable Energy Global Food & Water Security Animal & Plant Diseases Activity resource so in order to avoid unsustainable food price increases

  18. Creating ladders out of chains : China's technological development in a world of global production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuller, Douglas Brian

    2005-01-01

    With the advent of economic globalization, the terms of debate over the political and social conditions necessary to foster development in the Global South have shifted. Examining technological development, one important ...

  19. On Uncertainty Quantification of Lithium-ion Batteries

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hadigol, Mohammad; Doostan, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    In this work, a stochastic, physics-based model for Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) is presented in order to study the effects of model uncertainties on the cell capacity, voltage, and concentrations. To this end, the proposed uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach, based on sparse polynomial chaos expansions, relies on a small number of battery simulations. Within this UQ framework, the identification of most important uncertainty sources is achieved by performing a global sensitivity analysis via computing the so-called Sobol' indices. Such information aids in designing more efficient and targeted quality control procedures, which consequently may result in reducing the LIB production cost. An LiC$_6$/LiCoO$_2$ cell with 19 uncertain parameters discharged at 0.25C, 1C and 4C rates is considered to study the performance and accuracy of the proposed UQ approach. The results suggest that, for the considered cell, the battery discharge rate is a key factor affecting not only the performance variability of the ce...

  20. Part IV: Other International Arrangement of Interest Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Oceans and Fisheries Working Group

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and economic cooperation among economies around the Pacific Rim. APEC members account for over 90% of globalPart IV: Other International Arrangement of Interest 166 Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC

  1. Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data using a Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) Method

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Habte, Aron

    2015-06-25

    This presentation summarizes uncertainty estimation of radiometric data using the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty (GUM) method.

  2. Water Resources Policy & Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buehrer, R. Michael

    Water Resources Policy & Economics FOR 4984 Selected Course Topics · Appropriative and riparian water institutions · Incentives for conservation · Water rights for in-stream environmental use · Surface water-groundwater management · Water quality regulations · Water markets · Economic and policy

  3. Economic Assessment Environmental impact

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    - ". Economic Assessment Environmental impact Statement NESHAPS for Radionuclides Background Economic Assessment Environmental Impact Statement for NESHAPS Radionuclides VOLUME 3 BACKGROUND Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs) for Radionuclides. An Environmental Impact Statement (EIS

  4. Essays in labor economics and the economics of education

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thomas, Jaime Lynn

    2010-01-01

    Quarterly Journal of Economics. Kane, Thomas J. and CeciliaEducational Aspirations. ” Economics of Education Review,Educational Attainment. ” Economics of Education Review, 19:

  5. Bio-Economic Analyses of Biofuel-Based Integrated Farm Drainage Management Systems on Marginal Land in a Salinity and Drainage Impacted Region: The Case of California's Central Valley

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levers, Lucia

    2015-01-01

    digestion in global bio-energy production: potential andand potential energy production. We develop a bio- economic

  6. Monte Carlo Methods for Uncertainty Quantification Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giles, Mike

    reservoir modelling Considerable uncertainty about porosity of rock Astronomy "Random" spatial: uncertainty in modelling parameters uncertainty in geometry uncertainty in initial conditions uncertainty with Uncertainty Examples: Long-term climate modelling: Lots of sources of uncertainty including the effects

  7. Essays in Energy Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MYERS, ERICA CATHERINE

    2014-01-01

    to wholesale electricity prices in Germany. We focus on theWholesale Electricity Prices in Germany,” Economics Letters,

  8. Global warming, insurance losses and financial industry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Low, N.C.

    1996-12-31

    Global warming causes extremely bad weather in the near term. They have already caught the attention of the insurance industry, as they suffered massive losses in the last decade. Twenty-one out of the 25 largest catastrophes in the US, mainly in the form of hurricanes have occurred in the last decade. The insurance industry has reacted by taking the risk of global warming in decisions as to pricing and underwriting decisions. But they have yet to take a more active role in regulating the factors that contributes to global warming. How global warming can impact the financial industry and the modern economy is explored. Insurance and modern financial derivatives are key to the efficient functioning of the modern economy, without which the global economy can still function but will take a giant step backward. Any risk as global warming that causes economic surprises will hamper the efficient working of the financial market and the modern economy.

  9. Exploiting simultaneous observational constraints on mass and absorption to estimate the global direct radiative forcing of black carbon and brown carbon

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schwarz, J. P.

    Atmospheric black carbon (BC) is a leading climate warming agent, yet uncertainties on the global direct radiative forcing (DRF) remain large. Here we expand a global model simulation (GEOS-Chem) of BC to include the ...

  10. in Economics and Finance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van der Torre, Leon

    Master's in Economics and Finance ­ #12;2 3 "A research-centred institution with a personal REASONS TO STUDY The Master's in Economics and Finance programme targets students wishing to obtain a comprehensive and rigorous education in Economics and Finance. It emphasizes the complementary nature

  11. WORKING PAPER Resource Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    WORKING PAPER 2008-07 REPA Resource Economics & Policy Analysis Research Group Department of Economics University of Victoria Forest-mill integration: a transaction costs perspective Kurt Niquidet, Moeltne, and Johnson) 2003-06 ­ Climate Change and Forest Ecosystem Sinks: Economic Analysis (van Kooten

  12. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01

    peak, and finds that this nonlinear transformation of the oiland oil price growth rates. As seen in the above illustration, uncertainty is at its peak

  13. Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory and Information Content of New Measurements Citation Details In-Document Search This content will become publicly...

  14. Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Model Development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harrison, Thomas J.

    2014-10-01

    The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) research and development activities focus on four key areas: Developing assessment methods for evaluating advanced SMR technologies and characteristics; and Developing and testing of materials, fuels and fabrication techniques; and Resolving key regulatory issues identified by US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and industry; and Developing advanced instrumentation and controls and human-machine interfaces. This report focuses on development of assessment methods to evaluate advanced SMR technologies and characteristics. Specifically, this report describes the expansion and application of the economic modeling effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Analysis of the current modeling methods shows that one of the primary concerns for the modeling effort is the handling of uncertainty in cost estimates. Monte Carlo–based methods are commonly used to handle uncertainty, especially when implemented by a stand-alone script within a program such as Python or MATLAB. However, a script-based model requires each potential user to have access to a compiler and an executable capable of handling the script. Making the model accessible to multiple independent analysts is best accomplished by implementing the model in a common computing tool such as Microsoft Excel. Excel is readily available and accessible to most system analysts, but it is not designed for straightforward implementation of a Monte Carlo–based method. Using a Monte Carlo algorithm requires in-spreadsheet scripting and statistical analyses or the use of add-ons such as Crystal Ball. An alternative method uses propagation of error calculations in the existing Excel-based system to estimate system cost uncertainty. This method has the advantage of using Microsoft Excel as is, but it requires the use of simplifying assumptions. These assumptions do not necessarily bring into question the analytical results. In fact, the analysis shows that the propagation of error method introduces essentially negligible error, especially when compared to the uncertainty associated with some of the estimates themselves. The results of these uncertainty analyses generally quantify and identify the sources of uncertainty in the overall cost estimation. The obvious generalization—that capital cost uncertainty is the main driver—can be shown to be an accurate generalization for the current state of reactor cost analysis. However, the detailed analysis on a component-by-component basis helps to demonstrate which components would benefit most from research and development to decrease the uncertainty, as well as which components would benefit from research and development to decrease the absolute cost.

  15. A computational framework for uncertainty quantification and stochastic optimization in unit commitment with wind power generation.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2011-02-01

    We present a computational framework for integrating a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) model in stochastic unit commitment/economic dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the NWP model with an ensemble-based uncertainty quantification strategy implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework and validate the model using real wind-speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  16. Review: Global Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Jennifer

    2013-01-01

    introduction to global climate change, the greenhouseReview: Global Climate Change: A Primer By Orrin H PilkeyPilkey, Keith C. Global Climate Change: a primer. Durham,

  17. BridgeGreen : bridging the disconnect between design professionals and resources fro environmentally, socially, and economically responsive architecture

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Elbaum, Meredith Sue, 1975-

    2003-01-01

    Sustainable design, whether referred to as green, high performing, responsible, or environmentally, socially, and economically responsive architecture, is influencing the global building industry. Most major firms of ...

  18. Technology Policy and Economic Growth

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Borrus, Michael; Stowsky, Jay

    1997-01-01

    economic growth) and the Pentagon’s Technology Reinvestment20 Tassey, Technology and Economic Growth: Implications forTechnology Policy and Economic Growth Michael Borrus Jay

  19. Three Essays on Financial Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Qu, Haonan

    2011-01-01

    Journal of Financial Economics, February 2003, 67 (2), 217–Journal of Financial Economics, March 2008, 87 (3), 706–739.International Finance and Economics, 2008. Schiozer, Rafael

  20. Essays in Economics and Institutions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schihl, Michael Kristjian

    2010-01-01

    to (the New) Institutional Economics . . . . .3.4.2Governance. Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 7:Journal of Development Economics, 77(2):341–366, August

  1. New Light on Science The Social & Economic Impact of the Daresbury

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    New Light on Science The Social & Economic Impact of the Daresbury Synchrotron Radiation Source. This report is the first complete study in the world which explores the social and economic impact of a large Introduction 11 Chapter 3 Economic impact methodology 15 Chapter 4 SRS introduction & background 23 The global

  2. Human Ecology, Vol. 32, No. 3, June 2004 ( C 2004) Do Markets Worsen Economic Inequalities?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gurven, Michael

    Human Ecology, Vol. 32, No. 3, June 2004 ( C 2004) Do Markets Worsen Economic Inequalities? Kuznets,forexample,increasingincomeinequal- ities. The Kuznets hypothesis predicts that the link between income inequality and income (a proxy: economic inequality; Kuznets; Tsimane'; Bolivia; markets; globalization. INTRODUCTION Economic inequalities

  3. Economical phase-covariant cloning of qudits Francesco Buscemi,* Giacomo Mauro D'Ariano,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D'Ariano, Giacomo Mauro

    Economical phase-covariant cloning of qudits Francesco Buscemi,* Giacomo Mauro D'Ariano, and Chiara global and single-qudit fidelity. The map is achieved by an "economical" cloning machine, which works the cloning without the need of an ancilla--a so-called "economical" cloning 11 . As we will see

  4. Economic transition and urban land expansion in Provincial China Jinlong Gao a, b

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wei, Yehua Dennis

    Economic transition and urban land expansion in Provincial China Jinlong Gao a, b , Yehua Dennis: Available online 29 September 2014 Keywords: Economic transition Marketization Globalization Decentralization Land use change Jiangsu a b s t r a c t China has undergone economic transition characterized

  5. Climate dynamics and fluid mechanics: Natural variability and related uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Michael Ghil; Mickaël D. Chekroun; Eric Simonnet

    2010-06-15

    The purpose of this review-and-research paper is twofold: (i) to review the role played in climate dynamics by fluid-dynamical models; and (ii) to contribute to the understanding and reduction of the uncertainties in future climate-change projections. To illustrate the first point, we focus on the large-scale, wind-driven flow of the mid-latitude oceans which contribute in a crucial way to Earth's climate, and to changes therein. We study the low-frequency variability (LFV) of the wind-driven, double-gyre circulation in mid-latitude ocean basins, via the bifurcation sequence that leads from steady states through periodic solutions and on to the chaotic, irregular flows documented in the observations. This sequence involves local, pitchfork and Hopf bifurcations, as well as global, homoclinic ones. The natural climate variability induced by the LFV of the ocean circulation is but one of the causes of uncertainties in climate projections. Another major cause of such uncertainties could reside in the structural instability in the topological sense, of the equations governing climate dynamics, including but not restricted to those of atmospheric and ocean dynamics. We propose a novel approach to understand, and possibly reduce, these uncertainties, based on the concepts and methods of random dynamical systems theory. As a very first step, we study the effect of noise on the topological classes of the Arnol'd family of circle maps, a paradigmatic model of frequency locking as occurring in the nonlinear interactions between the El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and the seasonal cycle. It is shown that the maps' fine-grained resonant landscape is smoothed by the noise, thus permitting their coarse-grained classification. This result is consistent with stabilizing effects of stochastic parametrization obtained in modeling of ENSO phenomenon via some general circulation models.

  6. Essays on monetary economics and financial economics 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Sok Won

    2009-06-02

    In this dissertation three different economic issues have been analyzed. The first issue is whether monetary policy rules can improve forecasting accuracy of inflation. The second is whether the preference of a central bank is symmetry or not...

  7. Global Energy: Supply, Demand, Consequences, Opportunities (LBNL Summer Lecture Series)

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Majumdar, Arun

    2011-04-28

    Summer Lecture Series 2009: Arun Majumdar, Director of the Environmental Energy Technologies Division, discusses current and future projections of economic growth, population, and global energy demand and supply, and explores the implications of these trends for the environment.

  8. Global Energy: Supply, Demand, Consequences, Opportunities (LBNL Summer Lecture Series)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Majumdar, Arun

    2008-07-29

    Summer Lecture Series 2009: Arun Majumdar, Director of the Environmental Energy Technologies Division, discusses current and future projections of economic growth, population, and global energy demand and supply, and explores the implications of these trends for the environment.

  9. Simulating land use change in China from a global perspective

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Palmer, Paul

    drivers of population growth and socio-economic development to agricultural yield changes and alternative productivity and stable relationships with global food suppliers are important determinants of food security

  10. Higgs Boson Cross Section from CTEQ-TEA Global Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sayipjamal Dulat; Tie-Jiun Hou; Jun Gao; Joey Huston; Pavel Nadolsky; Jon Pumplin; Carl Schmidt; Daniel Stump; C. -P. Yuan

    2014-08-19

    We study the uncertainties of the Higgs boson production cross section through the gluon fusion subprocess at the LHC (with $\\sqrt s=7, 8$ and $14$ TeV) arising from the uncertainties of the parton distribution functions (PDFs) and of the value of the strong coupling constant $\\alpha_s(M_Z)$. These uncertainties are computed by two complementary approaches, based on the Hessian and the Lagrange Multiplier methods within the CTEQ-TEA global analysis framework. We find that their predictions for the Higgs boson cross section are in good agreement. Furthermore, the result of the Lagrange Multiplier method supports the prescriptions we have previously provided for using the Hessian method to calculate the combined PDF and $\\alpha_s$ uncertainties, and to estimate the uncertainties at the $68\\%$ confidence level by scaling them from the $90\\%$ confidence level.

  11. Higgs Boson Cross Section from CTEQ-TEA Global Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dulat, Sayipjamal; Gao, Jun; Huston, Joey; Nadolsky, Pavel; Pumplin, Jon; Schmidt, Carl; Stump, Daniel; Yuan, C -P

    2013-01-01

    We study the uncertainties of the Higgs boson production cross section through the gluon fusion subprocess at the LHC (with $\\sqrt s=7, 8$ and $14$ TeV) arising from the uncertainties of the parton distribution functions (PDFs) and of the value of the strong coupling constant $\\alpha_s(M_Z)$. These uncertainties are computed by two complementary approaches, based on the Hessian and the Lagrange Multiplier methods within the CTEQ-TEA global analysis framework. We find that their predictions for the Higgs boson cross section are in good agreement. Furthermore, the result of the Lagrange Multiplier method supports the prescriptions we have previously provided for using the Hessian method to calculate the combined PDF and $\\alpha_s$ uncertainties, and to estimate the uncertainties at the $68%$ confidence level by scaling them from the 90% confidence level.

  12. A High-Performance Embedded Hybrid Methodology for Uncertainty Quantification With Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iaccarino, Gianluca

    2014-04-01

    Multiphysics processes modeled by a system of unsteady di#11;erential equations are natu- rally suited for partitioned (modular) solution strategies. We consider such a model where probabilistic uncertainties are present in each module of the system and represented as a set of random input parameters. A straightforward approach in quantifying uncertainties in the predicted solution would be to sample all the input parameters into a single set, and treat the full system as a black-box. Although this method is easily parallelizable and requires minimal modi#12;cations to deterministic solver, it is blind to the modular structure of the underlying multiphysical model. On the other hand, using spectral representations polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) can provide richer structural information regarding the dynamics of these uncertainties as they propagate from the inputs to the predicted output, but can be prohibitively expensive to implement in the high-dimensional global space of un- certain parameters. Therefore, we investigated hybrid methodologies wherein each module has the exibility of using sampling or PCE based methods of capturing local uncertainties while maintaining accuracy in the global uncertainty analysis. For the latter case, we use a conditional PCE model which mitigates the curse of dimension associated with intru- sive Galerkin or semi-intrusive Pseudospectral methods. After formalizing the theoretical framework, we demonstrate our proposed method using a numerical viscous ow simulation and benchmark the performance against a solely Monte-Carlo method and solely spectral method.

  13. Global carbon budget 2014

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Peters, G. P.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Jones, S. D.; Sitch, S.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; et al

    2015-05-08

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissionsmore »from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1?;, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004–2013), EFF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr?¹,ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr?¹, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr?¹, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr?¹, and SLAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr?¹. For year 2013 alone, EFF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr?¹, 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr?¹, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr?¹, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr?¹, and SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr?¹. GATM was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in EFF and smaller and opposite changes between SOCEAN and SLAND compared to the past decade (2004–2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.5% (1.3–3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO2 yr?¹), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO2) for 1870–2014, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).« less

  14. Pricing Cloud Bandwidth Reservations under Demand Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Baochun

    Pricing Cloud Bandwidth Reservations under Demand Uncertainty Di Niu, Chen Feng, Baochun Li's utility depends not only on its bandwidth usage, but more importantly on the portion of its demand that can be made by all tenants and the cloud provider, even with the presence of demand uncertainty

  15. Dealing with Uncertainty in the Semantic Web

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Theune, Mariët

    Dealing with Uncertainty in the Semantic Web Tjitze Rienstra M.Sc. Thesis November 8, 2009. Paul van der Vet Dr. Maarten Fokkinga #12;#12;Abstract Standardizing the Semantic Web is still of the Semantic Web, are yet to be standardized. One of these is dealing with uncertainty. Like classical logic

  16. Estimating the uncertainty in underresolved nonlinear dynamics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chorin, Alelxandre; Hald, Ole

    2013-06-12

    The Mori-Zwanzig formalism of statistical mechanics is used to estimate the uncertainty caused by underresolution in the solution of a nonlinear dynamical system. A general approach is outlined and applied to a simple example. The noise term that describes the uncertainty turns out to be neither Markovian nor Gaussian. It is argued that this is the general situation.

  17. Multivariate Receptor Models and Model Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Multivariate Receptor Models and Model Uncertainty Eun Sug Park Man-Suk Oh Peter Guttorp NRCSET e c provides the Center's primary funding. #12;Multivariate Receptor Models and Model Uncertainty Eun Sug Park1 composition profiles, and the source contributions is the main interest in multivariate receptor modeling. Due

  18. Short communication Smooth pursuit under stimulusresponse uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bar, Moshe

    reaction times (RTs) are typically faster than choice reaction times and increase with uncertainty­R) uncertainty and reaction times (RTs): RT = a + blog2(N), where a is simple RT, b is the slope of the increase an eye velocity criterion of 1.5j sÀ 1 which was equivalent to 25% of the stimulus velocity

  19. Direct Entry Accounting and Economics School of Business and Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hickman, Mark

    Direct Entry ­ Accounting and Economics School of Business and Economics Accounting Students who.acis.canterbury.ac.nz #12;Direct Entry ­ Accounting and Economics School of Business and Economics Economics In order to obtain direct entry to 200 level economics (ECON 206 and ECON 207/208) in their first year of university

  20. Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jordan, D.; Kurtz, S.; Hansen, C.

    2014-04-01

    Dependable and predictable energy production is the key to the long-term success of the PV industry. PV systems show over the lifetime of their exposure a gradual decline that depends on many different factors such as module technology, module type, mounting configuration, climate etc. When degradation rates are determined from continuous data the statistical uncertainty is easily calculated from the regression coefficients. However, total uncertainty that includes measurement uncertainty and instrumentation drift is far more difficult to determine. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was chosen to investigate a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The most important effect for degradation rates is to avoid instrumentation that changes over time in the field. For instance, a drifting irradiance sensor, which can be achieved through regular calibration, can lead to a substantially erroneous degradation rates. However, the accuracy of the irradiance sensor has negligible impact on degradation rate uncertainty emphasizing that precision (relative accuracy) is more important than absolute accuracy.

  1. Majorization formulation of uncertainty in quantum mechanics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Partovi, M. Hossein [Department of Physics and Astronomy, California State University, Sacramento, California 95819-6041 (United States)

    2011-11-15

    Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is formulated for a set of generalized measurements within the framework of majorization theory, resulting in a partial uncertainty order on probability vectors that is stronger than those based on quasientropic measures. The theorem that emerges from this formulation guarantees that the uncertainty of the results of a set of generalized measurements without a common eigenstate has an inviolable lower bound which depends on the measurement set but not the state. A corollary to this theorem yields a parallel formulation of the uncertainty principle for generalized measurements corresponding to the entire class of quasientropic measures. Optimal majorization bounds for two and three mutually unbiased bases in two dimensions are calculated. Similarly, the leading term of the majorization bound for position and momentum measurements is calculated which provides a strong statement of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle in direct operational terms. Another theorem provides a majorization condition for the least-uncertain generalized measurement of a given state with interesting physical implications.

  2. Economic Development | ornl.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Economic Development Carbon Fiber Cluster Strategy Additive Manufacturing Cluster Strategy Entrepreneurial Development Programs Oak Ridge Science and Technology Park Economic...

  3. NET ECONOMIC VALUES OF RECREATIONISTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    #12;NET ECONOMIC VALUES OF RECREATIONISTS FOR OUTDOOR EXPERIENCES IN THE FRASER RIVER BASIN Crane of Economic Values 2.1 Water Resource Economic Values 2.2 Net Economic Values of Recreationists 2.3 Estimating Net Economic Value 2.4 Estimation Problems Review of Net Economic Value Estimates 3.1 Summary

  4. Securing the Sustainability of Global Medical Nuclear Supply Chains

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Medical Nuclear Supply Chains Through Economic Cost Recovery, Risk Management, and Optimization, to appear with associated increased volumes of waste. Indeed, according to Kramer (2011), the South African Nuclear EnergySecuring the Sustainability of Global Medical Nuclear Supply Chains Through Economic Cost Recovery

  5. www.GlobalStudiesJournal.com Volume 4, Issue 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    's economic expansion into South America? and 2) How has Ecuador responded to China's political and economic growth and political power, China's growing economy has catapulted this historically self-reliant country into the global political spotlight over the last three decades. While China's seemingly insatiable need

  6. The Role of Uncertainty Quantification for Reactor Physics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Salvatores, Massimo; Palmiotti, Giuseppe; Aliberti, G.

    2015-01-01

    The quantification of uncertainties is a crucial step in design. The comparison of a-priori uncertainties with the target accuracies, allows to define needs and priorities for uncertainty reduction. In view of their impact, the uncertainty analysis requires a reliability assessment of the uncertainty data used. The choice of the appropriate approach and the consistency of different approaches are discussed.

  7. SWAMC Economic Summit

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The 27th Annual Southwest Alaska Economic Summit and Business Meeting is a three-day conference covering energy efficiency planning, information on Alaska programs, and more.

  8. Essays on Environmental Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tang, Qu

    2015-01-01

    Keohane. "Market effects of environmental regulation: coal,utility." Journal of Environmental Economics and ManagementEconomy of Market-Based Environmental Policy: the US Acid

  9. Uncertainty quantification approaches for advanced reactor analyses.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Briggs, L. L.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2009-03-24

    The original approach to nuclear reactor design or safety analyses was to make very conservative modeling assumptions so as to ensure meeting the required safety margins. Traditional regulation, as established by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission required conservatisms which have subsequently been shown to be excessive. The commission has therefore moved away from excessively conservative evaluations and has determined best-estimate calculations to be an acceptable alternative to conservative models, provided the best-estimate results are accompanied by an uncertainty evaluation which can demonstrate that, when a set of analysis cases which statistically account for uncertainties of all types are generated, there is a 95% probability that at least 95% of the cases meet the safety margins. To date, nearly all published work addressing uncertainty evaluations of nuclear power plant calculations has focused on light water reactors and on large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) analyses. However, there is nothing in the uncertainty evaluation methodologies that is limited to a specific type of reactor or to specific types of plant scenarios. These same methodologies can be equally well applied to analyses for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and to liquid metal reactors, and they can be applied to steady-state calculations, operational transients, or severe accident scenarios. This report reviews and compares both statistical and deterministic uncertainty evaluation approaches. Recommendations are given for selection of an uncertainty methodology and for considerations to be factored into the process of evaluating uncertainties for advanced reactor best-estimate analyses.

  10. Economics (College of Arts and Sciences) The economics major focuses on economics as a social science.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miles, Will

    Economics (College of Arts and Sciences) The economics major focuses on economics as a social in the world? What types of political regimes best promote economic development? Are resource-rich developing countries cursed? Are drug cartels economically sound? Can humans work towards a better economic basis

  11. Global Political Economy Wednesdays 5:30-8:10 PM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Global Political Economy Fall 2013 Wednesdays 5:30-8:10 PM Location: ENG (Engelhard Hall) 213 Ajai economy, and the interaction between countries, regulatory systems and organizations. Attention of MNCs in the global economy. The role of economic, social and political institutions is also a central

  12. Global Political Economy Wednesdays 5:30-8:10 PM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Global Political Economy Fall 2014 Wednesdays 5:30-8:10 PM Location: 1 Washington Park, 508 Ajai economy, and the interaction between countries, regulatory systems and organizations. Attention of MNCs in the global economy. The role of economic, social and political institutions is also a central

  13. Global climate change and international security.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  14. EFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS METHODS FOR MULTIDISCIPLINARY ROBUST DESIGN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Wei

    EFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS METHODS FOR MULTIDISCIPLINARY ROBUST DESIGN Xiaoping Du* and Wei robust design procedure that utilizes efficient methods for uncertainty analysis is developed. Different techniques used for uncertainty analysis will significantly reduce the amount of design evaluations

  15. DAMAGE ASSESSMENT OF COMPOSITE PLATE STRUCTURES WITH UNCERTAINTY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    DAMAGE ASSESSMENT OF COMPOSITE PLATE STRUCTURES WITH UNCERTAINTY Chandrashekhar M.* , Ranjan Uncertainties associated with a structural model and measured vibration data may lead to unreliable damage that material uncertainties in composite structures cause considerable problem in damage assessment which can

  16. Wind Economic Development (Postcard)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-08-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Wind Powering America initiative provides information on the economic development benefits of wind energy. This postcard is a marketing piece that stakeholders can provide to interested parties; it will guide them to the economic development benefits section on the Wind Powering America website.

  17. Economic Evaluation of Radiopharmaceutical

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to industry needs and appointed a subcommittee of Manufacturers of Radioactive Reference Standards Radiation Division Physics Laboratory National Institute of Standards and Technology #12;Economic Evaluation of Standards and Technology by Albert N. Link Professor of Economics University of North Carolina at Greensboro

  18. Analysis of S-Circuit Uncertainty 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ahmed, Taahir

    2011-08-08

    The theory of sensori-computational circuits provides a capable framework for the description and optimization of robotic systems, including on-line optimizations. This theory, however, is inadequate in that it does not account for uncertainty in a...

  19. Uncertainty in climate change policy analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G.

    Achieving agreement about whether and how to control greenhouse gas emissions would be difficult enough even if the consequences were fully known. Unfortunately, choices must be made in the face of great uncertainty, about ...

  20. An uncertainty principle for unimodular quantum groups

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crann, Jason; Kalantar, Mehrdad E-mail: mkalanta@math.carleton.ca

    2014-08-15

    We present a generalization of Hirschman's entropic uncertainty principle for locally compact Abelian groups to unimodular locally compact quantum groups. As a corollary, we strengthen a well-known uncertainty principle for compact groups, and generalize the relation to compact quantum groups of Kac type. We also establish the complementarity of finite-dimensional quantum group algebras. In the non-unimodular setting, we obtain an uncertainty relation for arbitrary locally compact groups using the relative entropy with respect to the Haar weight as the measure of uncertainty. We also show that when restricted to q-traces of discrete quantum groups, the relative entropy with respect to the Haar weight reduces to the canonical entropy of the random walk generated by the state.

  1. Estimating uncertainties in integrated reservoir studies 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Guohong

    2004-09-30

    existing methods. The integrated mismatch method tends to generate smaller ranges of uncertainty than many existing methods. When starting from nonoptimal reservoir models, in some cases the integrated mismatch method is able to bracket the true reserves...

  2. Multifidelity methods for multidisciplinary design under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Christensen, Daniel Erik

    2012-01-01

    For computational design and analysis tasks, scientists and engineers often have available many different simulation models. The output of each model has an associated uncertainty that is a result of the modeling process. ...

  3. Richard C. Ready Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maxwell, Bruce D.

    Richard C. Ready Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics Montana State University, University of Wisconsin, Madison: Agricultural Economics Major Field: Environmental and Resource Economics 2. M.A. - 1985, University of Wisconsin, Madison: Agricultural Economics 3. B.S - 1981, Cornell

  4. For additional information, contact: Department of Agricultural Economics & Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barge, Marcy

    For additional information, contact: Department of Agricultural Economics & Economics Montana State.montana.edu/econ agecon@montana.edu 1 2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & ECONOMICS KELLY GORHAM 1 Austin Owens traveled to Greece as mentors for students in Economics 101 4 Chris Stoddard was the recipient of a MSU Cox Family Faculty

  5. Economics Faculty Advising Do you have economics industry specific questions?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alpay, S. Pamir

    Economics Faculty Advising Do you have economics industry specific questions? Are you planning to attend graduate school for economics and want more information? Are you looking to build a relationship with an economics faculty member? Below are the Economics Faculty Advisors for Spring 2015 semester. The advisor

  6. Uncertainty Quantification Techniques of SCALE/TSUNAMI

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rearden, Bradley T [ORNL] [ORNL; Mueller, Don [ORNL] [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    The Standardized Computer Analysis for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code system developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) includes Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation (TSUNAMI). The TSUNAMI code suite can quantify the predicted change in system responses, such as k{sub eff}, reactivity differences, or ratios of fluxes or reaction rates, due to changes in the energy-dependent, nuclide-reaction-specific cross-section data. Where uncertainties in the neutron cross-section data are available, the sensitivity of the system to the cross-section data can be applied to propagate the uncertainties in the cross-section data to an uncertainty in the system response. Uncertainty quantification is useful for identifying potential sources of computational biases and highlighting parameters important to code validation. Traditional validation techniques often examine one or more average physical parameters to characterize a system and identify applicable benchmark experiments. However, with TSUNAMI correlation coefficients are developed by propagating the uncertainties in neutron cross-section data to uncertainties in the computed responses for experiments and safety applications through sensitivity coefficients. The bias in the experiments, as a function of their correlation coefficient with the intended application, is extrapolated to predict the bias and bias uncertainty in the application through trending analysis or generalized linear least squares techniques, often referred to as 'data adjustment.' Even with advanced tools to identify benchmark experiments, analysts occasionally find that the application models include some feature or material for which adequately similar benchmark experiments do not exist to support validation. For example, a criticality safety analyst may want to take credit for the presence of fission products in spent nuclear fuel. In such cases, analysts sometimes rely on 'expert judgment' to select an additional administrative margin to account for gap in the validation data or to conclude that the impact on the calculated bias and bias uncertainty is negligible. As a result of advances in computer programs and the evolution of cross-section covariance data, analysts can use the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tools in the TSUNAMI codes to estimate the potential impact on the application-specific bias and bias uncertainty resulting from nuclides not represented in available benchmark experiments. This paper presents the application of methods described in a companion paper.

  7. Uncertainty of Pyrometers in a Casting Facility

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mee, D.K.; Elkins, J.E.; Fleenor, R.M.; Morrision, J.M.; Sherrill, M.W.; Seiber, L.E.

    2001-12-07

    This work has established uncertainty limits for the EUO filament pyrometers, digital pyrometers, two-color automatic pyrometers, and the standards used to certify these instruments (Table 1). If symmetrical limits are used, filament pyrometers calibrated in Production have certification uncertainties of not more than {+-}20.5 C traceable to NIST over the certification period. Uncertainties of these pyrometers were roughly {+-}14.7 C before introduction of the working standard that allowed certification in the field. Digital pyrometers addressed in this report have symmetrical uncertainties of not more than {+-}12.7 C or {+-}18.1 C when certified on a Y-12 Standards Laboratory strip lamp or in a production area tube furnace, respectively. Uncertainty estimates for automatic two-color pyrometers certified in Production are {+-}16.7 C. Additional uncertainty and bias are introduced when measuring production melt temperatures. A -19.4 C bias was measured in a large 1987 data set which is believed to be caused primarily by use of Pyrex{trademark} windows (not present in current configuration) and window fogging. Large variability (2{sigma} = 28.6 C) exists in the first 10 m of the hold period. This variability is attributed to emissivity variation across the melt and reflection from hot surfaces. For runs with hold periods extending to 20 m, the uncertainty approaches the calibration uncertainty of the pyrometers. When certifying pyrometers on a strip lamp at the Y-12 Standards Laboratory, it is important to limit ambient temperature variation (23{+-}4 C), to order calibration points from high to low temperatures, to allow 6 m for the lamp to reach thermal equilibrium (12 m for certifications below 1200 C) to minimize pyrometer bias, and to calibrate the pyrometer if error exceeds vendor specifications. A procedure has been written to assure conformance.

  8. Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bateman, Ian J.

    Production System Human Well-Being Climate Policy Evaluating Change Non-Market Market Valuing Consumption Consumption: The environment and property markets Amy Binner #12;Drivers of Change Environmental Production... what on Earth is it? Matthew Agarwala #12;#12;v Final Goods & Services: Market Production Processes

  9. An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mercure, Jean-Francois; Salas, Pablo

    2012-03-20

    are provided in table S.4.3 for this work’s list of world regions. S.3.3. Hydropower Hydroelectric resources, highly site dependent, were modelled using the distribution for hierarchical resources. Hydroelectric potentials and current annual electricity... ., and were used as proxies for regions not studied in their work, or where no information on recent hydroelectric developments was found. Some countries do not have recently reported hydroelectric projects onto which to base cost values. Recent developments...

  10. World-Size Global Markets Lead to Economic Instability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , ecological, and financial systems [1]. This model describes the economy in terms of very simple interacting, US electric appliances do not fit the European power network, so their competitivity is hindered of the system, is wealth redistribution. In our model, this is represented quantitatively by the probability

  11. From a global point of view, economic growthandenvironmentalsustainability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    President, Research & Technology Reliance Industries LTD Navi Mumbai, India Industry Colloquium About of Delaware, after achieving a B.Chem. Eng. Gold Medal at ICT Mumbai, and first rank in the Maharashtra State visiting professor at ICT, Mumbai and an adjunct professor at the Massachusetts College of Pharmacy

  12. Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Schuermann, Til; Smith, L Vanessa

    , was the price of crude oil. In the second version of the GVAR (DdPS) the money supply variable was dropped due to lack of a consistent measure across all countries, and a long-term interest rate was added to allow for simple yield curve relationships. Indeed... City, June 24-27, 2007 and at the Bank of England Research Workshop on Dynamic Factor Models held at the Bank of England, 8-10 October 2007. We are grateful for comments by the discussants James Stock and Domenico Giannone as well as to Frank Diebold...

  13. Global-Local Linkages in the Community Economic Development Field

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cummings, Scott L

    2006-01-01

    Cooperative Works: The Case of Kerala Dinesh Beedi, 49 UCLAunions in launching the Kerala Dinesh Beedi cooperative). a

  14. Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on DeliciousMathematicsEnergyInterestedReplacement-2-AA-1Research and FuelingEnergyRecovery ActofChallenges in

  15. Essays in Resource Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stevens, Reid Blake

    2015-01-01

    Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market. ” American Economicin the Global Market for Crude Oil. ” Journal of Appliedlowering the price of crude oil. The second chapter examines

  16. Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: A Strategy...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: A Strategy and its Applications Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: A Strategy and its Applications Ming Ye...

  17. Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by...

  18. Addressing Uncertainties in Design Inputs: A Case Study of Probabilist...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Addressing Uncertainties in Design Inputs: A Case Study of Probabilistic Settlement Evaluations for Soft Zone Collapse at SWPF Addressing Uncertainties in Design Inputs: A Case...

  19. Asymptotic and uncertainty analyses of a phase field model for...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Asymptotic and uncertainty analyses of a phase field model for void formation under irradiation Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Asymptotic and uncertainty analyses of a...

  20. Global hydrological cycle response to rapid and slow global warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuang, Zhiming

    Global hydrological cycle response to rapid and slow global warming and Jiaxu Zhang #12;· Anthropogenic global warming causes "robust" changes in the global in the global hydrological cycle due to anthropogenic global warming Atmospheric radiative

  1. Uncertainties and severe-accident management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kastenberg, W.E. (Univ. of California, Los Angeles (United States))

    1991-01-01

    Severe-accident management can be defined as the use of existing and or alternative resources, systems, and actions to prevent or mitigate a core-melt accident. Together with risk management (e.g., changes in plant operation and/or addition of equipment) and emergency planning (off-site actions), accident management provides an extension of the defense-indepth safety philosophy for severe accidents. A significant number of probabilistic safety assessments have been completed, which yield the principal plant vulnerabilities, and can be categorized as (a) dominant sequences with respect to core-melt frequency, (b) dominant sequences with respect to various risk measures, (c) dominant threats that challenge safety functions, and (d) dominant threats with respect to failure of safety systems. Severe-accident management strategies can be generically classified as (a) use of alternative resources, (b) use of alternative equipment, and (c) use of alternative actions. For each sequence/threat and each combination of strategy, there may be several options available to the operator. Each strategy/option involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. These include (a) uncertainty in key phenomena, (b) uncertainty in operator behavior, (c) uncertainty in system availability and behavior, and (d) uncertainty in information availability (i.e., instrumentation). This paper focuses on phenomenological uncertainties associated with severe-accident management strategies.

  2. Reactor Neutrino Flux Uncertainty Suppression on Multiple Detector Experiments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Andi Cucoanes; Pau Novella; Anatael Cabrera; Muriel Fallot; Anthony Onillon; Michel Obolensky; Frederic Yermia

    2015-01-02

    This publication provides a coherent treatment for the reactor neutrino flux uncertainties suppression, specially focussed on the latest $\\theta_{13}$ measurement. The treatment starts with single detector in single reactor site, most relevant for all reactor experiments beyond $\\theta_{13}$. We demonstrate there is no trivial error cancellation, thus the flux systematic error can remain dominant even after the adoption of multi-detector configurations. However, three mechanisms for flux error suppression have been identified and calculated in the context of Double Chooz, Daya Bay and RENO sites. Our analysis computes the error {\\it suppression fraction} using simplified scenarios to maximise relative comparison among experiments. We have validated the only mechanism exploited so far by experiments to improve the precision of the published $\\theta_{13}$. The other two newly identified mechanisms could lead to total error flux cancellation under specific conditions and are expected to have major implications on the global $\\theta_{13}$ knowledge today. First, Double Chooz, in its final configuration, is the only experiment benefiting from a negligible reactor flux error due to a $\\sim$90\\% geometrical suppression. Second, Daya Bay and RENO could benefit from their partial geometrical cancellation, yielding a potential $\\sim$50\\% error suppression, thus significantly improving the global $\\theta_{13}$ precision today. And third, we illustrate the rationale behind further error suppression upon the exploitation of the inter-reactor error correlations, so far neglected. So, our publication is a key step forward in the context of high precision neutrino reactor experiments providing insight on the suppression of their intrinsic flux error uncertainty, thus affecting past and current experimental results, as well as the design of future experiments.

  3. TENNESSEE BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grissino-Mayer, Henri D.

    TENNESSEE BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK THE STATE'S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SPRING 2015 #12;Matthew N Knoxville, Tennessee TENNESSEE BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK THE STATE'S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SPRING 2015 #12;ii | SPRING 2015 TENNESSEE BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK The preparation of this report was financed in part

  4. Three Essays on Development Economics and Behavioral Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Song, Changcheng

    2012-01-01

    Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112 (2), 407-441. Crawford,Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(4), 1233-1260. Gul,Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112 (2), 407-441. Carlin, B.

  5. Estimating uncertainty of inference for validation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

    2010-09-30

    We present a validation process based upon the concept that validation is an inference-making activity. This has always been true, but the association has not been as important before as it is now. Previously, theory had been confirmed by more data, and predictions were possible based on data. The process today is to infer from theory to code and from code to prediction, making the role of prediction somewhat automatic, and a machine function. Validation is defined as determining the degree to which a model and code is an accurate representation of experimental test data. Imbedded in validation is the intention to use the computer code to predict. To predict is to accept the conclusion that an observable final state will manifest; therefore, prediction is an inference whose goodness relies on the validity of the code. Quantifying the uncertainty of a prediction amounts to quantifying the uncertainty of validation, and this involves the characterization of uncertainties inherent in theory/models/codes and the corresponding data. An introduction to inference making and its associated uncertainty is provided as a foundation for the validation problem. A mathematical construction for estimating the uncertainty in the validation inference is then presented, including a possibility distribution constructed to represent the inference uncertainty for validation under uncertainty. The estimation of inference uncertainty for validation is illustrated using data and calculations from Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). The ICF measurements of neutron yield and ion temperature were obtained for direct-drive inertial fusion capsules at the Omega laser facility. The glass capsules, containing the fusion gas, were systematically selected with the intent of establishing a reproducible baseline of high-yield 10{sup 13}-10{sup 14} neutron output. The deuterium-tritium ratio in these experiments was varied to study its influence upon yield. This paper on validation inference is the first in a series of inference uncertainty estimations. While the methods demonstrated are primarily statistical, these do not preclude the use of nonprobabilistic methods for uncertainty characterization. The methods presented permit accurate determinations for validation and eventual prediction. It is a goal that these methods establish a standard against which best practice may evolve for determining degree of validation.

  6. Climate Extremes, Uncertainty and Impacts Climate Change Challenge: The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Climate Extremes, Uncertainty and Impacts Climate Change Challenge: The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, AR4) has resulted in a wider acceptance of global climate change, hurricanes and tropical storms) or extreme stresses (e.g., tropical climate in temperate regions or shifting

  7. ENHANCED UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR SRS COMPOSITE ANALYSIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, F.; Phifer, M.

    2011-06-30

    The Composite Analysis (CA) performed for the Savannah River Site (SRS) in 2009 (SRS CA 2009) included a simplified uncertainty analysis. The uncertainty analysis in the CA (Smith et al. 2009b) was limited to considering at most five sources in a separate uncertainty calculation performed for each POA. To perform the uncertainty calculations in a reasonable amount of time, the analysis was limited to using 400 realizations, 2,000 years of simulated transport time, and the time steps used for the uncertainty analysis were increased from what was used in the CA base case analysis. As part of the CA maintenance plan, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) committed to improving the CA uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. The previous uncertainty analysis was constrained by the standard GoldSim licensing which limits the user to running at most four Monte Carlo uncertainty calculations (also called realizations) simultaneously. Some of the limitations on the number of realizations that could be practically run and the simulation time steps were removed by building a cluster of three HP Proliant windows servers with a total of 36 64-bit processors and by licensing the GoldSim DP-Plus distributed processing software. This allowed running as many as 35 realizations simultaneously (one processor is reserved as a master process that controls running the realizations). These enhancements to SRNL computing capabilities made uncertainty analysis: using 1000 realizations, using the time steps employed in the base case CA calculations, with more sources, and simulating radionuclide transport for 10,000 years feasible. In addition, an importance screening analysis was performed to identify the class of stochastic variables that have the most significant impact on model uncertainty. This analysis ran the uncertainty model separately testing the response to variations in the following five sets of model parameters: (a) K{sub d} values (72 parameters for the 36 CA elements in sand and clay), (b) Dose Parameters (34 parameters), (c) Material Properties (20 parameters), (d) Surface Water Flows (6 parameters), and (e) Vadose and Aquifer Flow (4 parameters). Results provided an assessment of which group of parameters is most significant in the dose uncertainty. It was found that K{sub d} and the vadose/aquifer flow parameters, both of which impact transport timing, had the greatest impact on dose uncertainty. Dose parameters had an intermediate level of impact while material properties and surface water flows had little impact on dose uncertainty. Results of the importance analysis are discussed further in Section 7 of this report. The objectives of this work were to address comments received during the CA review on the uncertainty analysis and to demonstrate an improved methodology for CA uncertainty calculations as part of CA maintenance. This report partially addresses the LFRG Review Team issue of producing an enhanced CA sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. This is described in Table 1-1 which provides specific responses to pertinent CA maintenance items extracted from Section 11 of the SRS CA (2009). As noted above, the original uncertainty analysis looked at each POA separately and only included the effects from at most five sources giving the highest peak doses at each POA. Only 17 of the 152 CA sources were used in the original uncertainty analysis and the simulation time was reduced from 10,000 to 2,000 years. A major constraint on the original uncertainty analysis was the limitation of only being able to use at most four distributed processes. This work expanded the analysis to 10,000 years using 39 of the CA sources, included cumulative dose effects at downstream POAs, with more realizations (1,000) and finer time steps. This was accomplished by using the GoldSim DP-Plus module and the 36 processors available on a new windows cluster. The last part of the work looked at the contribution to overall uncertainty from the main categories of uncertainty variables: K{sub d}s, dose parameters, flow parameters, and material propertie

  8. Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    environmental changes. Being data-driven, the Program uses extensive Earth system and economic data and models's Integrated Global System Model. Through this integrated model, the Program seeks to: discover new century with a dynamic vegetation model Yueyang Jiang, Qianlai Zhuang, Sibyll Schaphoff, Stephen Sitch

  9. Economic assessment model architecture for AGC/AVLIS selection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoglund, R.L.

    1984-05-24

    The economic assessment model architecture described provides the flexibility and completeness in economic analysis that the selection between AGC and AVLIS demands. Process models which are technology-specific will provide the first-order responses of process performance and cost to variations in process parameters. The economics models can be used to test the impacts of alternative deployment scenarios for a technology. Enterprise models provide global figures of merit for evaluating the DOE perspective on the uranium enrichment enterprise, and business analysis models compute the financial parameters from the private investor's viewpoint.

  10. Three essays on behavioral economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meng, Juanjuan

    2010-01-01

    Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(2): 407-441. Crawford,Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121(4): 1133-1165. K?szegi,Models" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(4): 551-

  11. Essays in Empirical Development Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ozier, Owen Whitfield

    2010-01-01

    story,” Journal of Development Economics, 91(1), 128–139.Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 58(4), 450–474.to Learn,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 91(3), 437–

  12. Three Essays on Development Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nakagawa, Hideyuki

    2013-01-01

    Journal of Public Economics 89(4): 705-727. Gertler, P andJournal of Labour Economics , Vol. 17, No. 2, April, 2010Smoothing”, Journal of Economics Perspectives , 9(3), 103-

  13. Three essays in labor economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Liang Choon

    2010-01-01

    Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 123 (3), pp. 1111-1159.Kibbutz,” Journal of Public Economics, vol. 93, pp. 498-511.Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 106(40), pp. 979-

  14. Essays in Behavioral Health Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Montoy, Juan Carlos Cantu

    2012-01-01

    The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121(3): 1063–1102, 2006.Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1): 55–79, 2001. D.Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(4): 1149–87, 2001. G.

  15. Covariant energy density functionals: the assessment of global performance across the nuclear landscape

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Afanasjev, A V

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of the global performance of the state-of-the-art covariant energy density functionals and related theoretical uncertainties in the description of ground state observables has recently been performed. Based on these results, the correlations between global description of binding energies and nuclear matter properties of covariant energy density functionals have been studied in this contribution.

  16. Covariant energy density functionals: the assessment of global performance across the nuclear landscape

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A. V. Afanasjev

    2015-08-22

    The assessment of the global performance of the state-of-the-art covariant energy density functionals and related theoretical uncertainties in the description of ground state observables has recently been performed. Based on these results, the correlations between global description of binding energies and nuclear matter properties of covariant energy density functionals have been studied in this contribution.

  17. Essays in environmental economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Deryugina, Tatyana

    2012-01-01

    This thesis examines various aspects of environmental economics. The first chapter estimates how individuals' beliefs about climate change are affected by local weather fluctuations. Climate change is a one-time uncertain ...

  18. Essays in financial economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Edmans, Alex

    2007-01-01

    This thesis consists of three essays in financial economics. Chapter 1 is entitled "Inside Debt." Existing theories advocate the use of cash and equity in executive compensation. However, recent empirical studies have ...

  19. Essays on development economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ruthbah, Ummul Hasanath

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation is a collection of three independent papers in empirical development economics. The first chapter studies the effect of a family planning program in Bangladesh, which successfully reduced fertility, on ...

  20. Ethics of economic sanctions 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ellis, Elizabeth Anne

    2013-07-02

    The ethics of economic sanctions is an issue that has been curiously neglected by philosophers and political theorists. Only a handful of philosophical journal articles and book chapters have ever been published on the ...

  1. Essays in financial economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ru, Hong, Ph. D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2015-01-01

    This thesis considers three empirical essays on financial economics. The first chapter examines the effect of government credit on firm investment, employment, debt, profitability, and survival by using unique data from ...

  2. SWAMC Economic Summit

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Hosted by the Southwest Alaska Municipal Conference (SWAMC), the 27th Annual Southwest Alaska Economic Summit and Business Meeting is a three-day conference covering energy efficiency planning,...

  3. Essays on financial economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vargas Mendoza, Alberto

    2012-01-01

    This thesis consists of three independent essays on Financial Economics. In chapter one I investigate the possible mispricing of European-style options in the Mexican Stock Exchange. The source of this problem is that when ...

  4. Renewable Energy Economic Potential

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The report describes a geospatial analysis method to estimate the economic potential of several renewable resources available for electricity generation in the United States. Economic potential, one measure of renewable generation potential, is defined in this report as the subset of the available resource technical potential where the cost required to generate the electricity (which determines the minimum revenue requirements for development of the resource) is below the revenue available in terms of displaced energy and displaced capacity.

  5. Quantifying the Objective Cost of Uncertainty in Complex Dynamical Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yoon, Byung-Jun

    in translational genomics. Index Terms Mean objective cost of uncertainty (MOCU), objective-based uncertaintyQuantifying the Objective Cost of Uncertainty in Complex Dynamical Systems Byung-Jun Yoon, Senior quantifies the uncertainty in a given system based on the expected increase of the operational cost

  6. Bounded Uncertainty Roadmaps for Path Planning Leonidas J. Guibas1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guibas, Leonidas J.

    Bounded Uncertainty Roadmaps for Path Planning Leonidas J. Guibas1 , David Hsu2 , Hanna Kurniawati2 uncertainty during planning. We in- troduce the notion of a bounded uncertainty roadmap (BURM) and use, and it is not much slower than classic probabilistic roadmap planning algorithms, which ignore uncertainty

  7. Estimation of methane and carbon dioxide surface fluxes using a 3-D global atmospheric chemical transport model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Yu-Han, 1973-

    2004-01-01

    Methane (CH?) and carbon dioxide (CO?) are the two most radiatively important greenhouse gases attributable to human activity. Large uncertainties in their source and sink magnitudes currently exist. We estimate global ...

  8. Assessing environmental benefits and economic costs of aviation environmental policy measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mahashabde, Anuja (Anuja Anil)

    2009-01-01

    Despite the recent global economic downturn, longer term growth is anticipated for aviation with an increasing environmental impact, specifically in the areas of noise, air quality, and climate change. To ensure sustainable ...

  9. CULTURE, ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, AND THE DYNAMICS OF ECOLOGICAL ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fournier, John J.F.

    CULTURE, ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, AND THE DYNAMICS OF ECOLOGICAL ECONOMIC SYSTEMS By John M. Anderies B are developed and analyzed in an attempt to better un- derstand the interaction of culture, economic structure, and the dynamics of human ecological economic systems. Speci cally, how does the ability of humans to change

  10. Global Warming Observations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schofield, Jeremy

    Global Warming Observations: 1. Global temperature has been gradually rising in recent years #15 in range 8000 12000 nm { CFC's, methane and N 2 O important for global warming even though concentra- tions in concentration of \\greenhouse gases" like CO 2 What determines global temperature? Energy budget of earth: 1

  11. Global Health Seminar Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Klein, Ophir

    Bay Area Global Health Seminar Series Moving beyond millennium targets in global health: The challenges of investing in health and universal health coverage Although targets can help to focus global health efforts, they can also detract attention from deeper underlying challenges in global health

  12. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01

    Industrial production, oil production, oil price and oilvariables in the VAR, oil production quantity as well as oilquarterly global crude oil production, crude oil price and

  13. Aeras: A next generation global atmosphere model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Spotz, William F.; Smith, Thomas M.; Demeshko, Irina P.; Fike, Jeffrey A.

    2015-06-01

    Sandia National Laboratories is developing a new global atmosphere model named Aeras that is performance portable and supports the quantification of uncertainties. These next-generation capabilities are enabled by building Aeras on top of Albany, a code base that supports the rapid development of scientific application codes while leveraging Sandia's foundational mathematics and computer science packages in Trilinos and Dakota. Embedded uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an original design capability of Albany, and performance portability is a recent upgrade. Other required features, such as shell-type elements, spectral elements, efficient explicit and semi-implicit time-stepping, transient sensitivity analysis, and concurrent ensembles, were not componentsmore »of Albany as the project began, and have been (or are being) added by the Aeras team. We present early UQ and performance portability results for the shallow water equations.« less

  14. Economic development and coastal ecosystem change in China

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    development, oil/gas exploration, and food production1,3 . This is a primary reason for the higher per capita ecosystems are globally threatened by anthropogenic impacts, yet how these impacts are driven by economic half of the world's population lives near coasts that benefit human society with access to trade, land

  15. Wind Power Project Repowering: History, Economics, and Demand (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.

    2015-01-01

    This presentation summarizes a related NREL technical report and seeks to capture the current status of wind power project repowering in the U.S. and globally, analyze the economic and financial decision drivers that surround repowering, and to quantify the level and timing of demand for new turbine equipment to supply the repowering market.

  16. The 7. global warming international conference and expo: Abstracts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-12-31

    This conference was held April 1--3, 1996 in Vienna, Austria. The purpose of this conference was to provide a multidisciplinary forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on global warming. Topics of interest include the following: global and regional natural resource management; energy, transportation, minerals and natural resource management; industrial technology and greenhouse gas emission; strategies for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emission; greenhouse gas production/utilization and carbon budgets; strategies for promoting the understanding of global change; international policy strategy and economics; and global warming and public health. Individual papers have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases.

  17. The IAEA Coordinated Research Program on HTGR Uncertainty Analysis: Phase I Status and Initial Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gerhard Strydom; Friederike Bostelmann; Kostadin Ivanov

    2014-10-01

    The continued development of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) requires verification of HTGR design and safety features with reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes. One way to address the uncertainties in the HTGR analysis tools are to assess the sensitivity of critical parameters (such as the calculated maximum fuel temperature during loss of coolant accidents) to a few important input uncertainties. The input parameters were identified by engineering judgement in the past but are today typically based on a Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRT) process. The input parameters can also be derived from sensitivity studies and are then varied in the analysis to find a spread in the parameter of importance. However, there is often no easy way to compensate for these uncertainties. In engineering system design, a common approach for addressing performance uncertainties is to add compensating margins to the system, but with passive properties credited it is not so clear how to apply it in the case of modular HTGR heat removal path. Other more sophisticated uncertainty modelling approaches, including Monte Carlo analysis, have also been proposed and applied. Ideally one wishes to apply a more fundamental approach to determine the predictive capability and accuracies of coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics and depletion simulations used for reactor design and safety assessment. Today there is a broader acceptance of the use of uncertainty analysis even in safety studies and it has been accepted by regulators in some cases to replace the traditional conservative analysis. Therefore some safety analysis calculations may use a mixture of these approaches for different parameters depending upon the particular requirements of the analysis problem involved. Sensitivity analysis can for example be used to provide information as part of an uncertainty analysis to determine best estimate plus uncertainty results to the required confidence level. In order to address uncertainty propagation in analysis and methods in the HTGR community the IAEA initiated a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) [6] that officially started in 2013. Although this project focuses specifically on the peculiarities of HTGR designs and its simulation requirements, many lessons can be learned from the LWR community and the significant progress already made towards a consistent methodology uncertainty analysis. In the case of LWRs the NRC has already in 1988 amended 10 CFR 50.46 to allow best-estimate (plus uncertainties) calculations of emergency core cooling system performance. The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also established an Expert Group on "Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling" which finally led to the definition of the "Benchmark for Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) for Design, Operation and Safety Analysis of LWRs" [7]. The CRP on HTGR UAM will follow as far as possible the on-going OECD Light Water Reactor UAM benchmark activity.

  18. Unconventional gas outlook: resources, economics, and technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Drazga, B.

    2006-08-15

    The report explains the current and potential of the unconventional gas market including country profiles, major project case studies, and new technology research. It identifies the major players in the market and reports their current and forecasted projects, as well as current volume and anticipated output for specific projects. Contents are: Overview of unconventional gas; Global natural gas market; Drivers of unconventional gas sources; Forecast; Types of unconventional gas; Major producing regions Overall market trends; Production technology research; Economics of unconventional gas production; Barriers and challenges; Key regions: Australia, Canada, China, Russia, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States; Major Projects; Industry Initiatives; Major players. Uneconomic or marginally economic resources such as tight (low permeability) sandstones, shale gas, and coalbed methane are considered unconventional. However, due to continued research and favorable gas prices, many previously uneconomic or marginally economic gas resources are now economically viable, and may not be considered unconventional by some companies. Unconventional gas resources are geologically distinct in that conventional gas resources are buoyancy-driven deposits, occurring as discrete accumulations in structural or stratigraphic traps, whereas unconventional gas resources are generally not buoyancy-driven deposits. The unconventional natural gas category (CAM, gas shales, tight sands, and landfill) is expected to continue at double-digit growth levels in the near term. Until 2008, demand for unconventional natural gas is likely to increase at an AAR corresponding to 10.7% from 2003, aided by prioritized research and development efforts. 1 app.

  19. BAYESIANSTATISTICS in Health Economics and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oakley, Jeremy

    aprimeron BAYESIANSTATISTICS in Health Economics and Outcomes Research BS EHC Centre for Bayesian Statistics in Health Economics BAYESIAN INITIATIVE IN HEALTH ECONOMICS & OUTCOMES RESEARCH #12;APrimeronBayesianStatisticsLuceO'Hagan #12;aprimeron BAYESIANSTATISTICS in Health Economics and Outcomes Research Bayesian Initiative

  20. Department of Economics Financial Aid

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Huang, Haiying

    Department of Economics Financial Aid: Availability and Requirements in the Department of Economics The Department of Economics has several sources of financial aid for domestic and international students Assistantships in the Department of Economics The predominant form of financial aid is the graduate research

  1. Implementation of global energy sustainability

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grob, G.R.

    1998-02-01

    The term energy sustainability emerged from the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio 1992, when Agenda 21 was formulated and the Global Energy Charter proclaimed. Emission reductions, total energy costing, improved energy efficiency, and sustainable energy systems are the four fundamental principles of the charter. These principles can be implemented in the proposed financial, legal, technical, and education framework. Much has been done in many countries toward the implementation of the Global Energy Charter, but progress has not been fast enough to ease the disastrous effects of the too many ill-conceived energy systems on the environment, climate, and health. Global warming is accelerating, and pollution is worsening, especially in developing countries with their hunger for energy to meet the needs of economic development. Asian cities are now beating all pollution records, and greenhouse gases are visibly changing the climate with rising sea levels, retracting glaciers, and record weather disasters. This article presents why and how energy investments and research money have to be rechanneled into sustainable energy, rather than into the business-as-usual of depleting, unsustainable energy concepts exceeding one trillion dollars per year. This largest of all investment sectors needs much more attention.

  2. Economical wind protection - underground

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kiesling, E.W.

    1980-01-01

    Earth-sheltered buildings inherently posess near-absolute occupant protection from severe winds. They should sustain no structural damage and only minimal facial damage. Assuming that the lower-hazard risk attendant to this type of construction results in reduced insurance-premium rates, the owner accrues economic benefits from the time of construction. Improvements to aboveground buildings, in contrast, may not yield early economic benefits in spite of a favorable benefit-to-cost ratio. This, in addition to sensitivity to initial costs, traditionalism in residential construction, and lack of professional input to design, impede the widespread use of underground improvements and the subsequent economic losses from severe winds. Going underground could reverse the trend. 7 references.

  3. Global climate change and international security

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  4. Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy Jonathan Rougier University of Bristol, UK Michel1.tex. 1 Introduction This essay, written by a statistician and a climate scientist, describes our view of the gap that exists between current practice in mainstream climate science, and the practical

  5. Outage Probability Under Channel Distribution Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Loyka, Sergey

    Outage Probability Under Channel Distribution Uncertainty Ioanna Ioannou, Charalambos D. Charalambous and Sergey Loyka Abstract--Outage probability of a class of block-fading (MIMO) channels outage probability defined as min (over the input distribution) -max (over the channel distribution class

  6. Time Crystals from Minimum Time Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mir Faizal; Mohammed M. Khalil; Saurya Das

    2014-12-29

    Motivated by the Generalized Uncertainty Principle, covariance, and a minimum measurable time, we propose a deformation of the Heisenberg algebra, and show that this leads to corrections to all quantum mechanical systems. We also demonstrate that such a deformation implies a discrete spectrum for time. In other words, time behaves like a crystal.

  7. Bayesian Environmetrics: Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Draper, David

    problems 1 #12;Outline Two case studies, both involving risk assessment for nuclear waste disposal methods has better repeated-sampling properties than maximum likelihood. -- Several (standard) fluid dynamics: uncertainty and sensitivity analysis and inverse problems 2 #12;Case Study 1: GESAMAC Nuclear fission

  8. Nuclear power expansion: thinking about uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Holt, Lynne; Sotkiewicz, Paul; Berg, Sanford

    2010-06-15

    Nuclear power is one of many options available to achieve reduced carbon dioxide emissions. The real-option value model can help explain the uncertainties facing prospective nuclear plant developers in developing mitigation strategies for the development, construction, and operation of new nuclear plants. (author)

  9. Coping with uncertainties of mercury regulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reich, K.

    2006-09-15

    The thermometer is rising as coal-fired plants cope with the uncertainties of mercury regulation. The paper deals with a diagnosis and a suggested cure. It describes the state of mercury emission rules in the different US states, many of which had laws or rules in place before the Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) was promulgated.

  10. Dealing with Uncertainties During Heat Exchanger Design 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Polley, G. T.; Pugh, S. J.

    2001-01-01

    Over the last thirty years much progress has been made in heat exchanger design methodology. Even so, the design engineer still has to deal with a great deal of uncertainty. Whilst the methods used to predict heat transfer coefficients are now quite...

  11. Robot Motion Planning with Uncertainty The Challenge

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Whitton, Mary C.

    Roadmap (SMR), a new motion planning framework that explicitly considers uncertainty in robot motion approach. Our framework builds on the highly successful approach used in Probabilistic Roadmaps (PRMs of discrete states is selected in the state space, and a roadmap is built that represents their collision

  12. CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE CERTAINTIES AND UNCERTAINTIES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schwartz, Stephen E.

    CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE CERTAINTIES AND UNCERTAINTIES Stephen E. Schwartz http://www.ecd.bnl.gov/steve/schwartz.html December 4, 2001 Updated, March 4, 2002 #12;OUTLINE · Overview of the Earth climate system · Increased concentrations of "greenhouse gases" · Radiative forcing of climate change · Climate system response

  13. Visual Exploration of Uncertainty in Remotesensing Classification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Utrecht, Universiteit

    Visual Exploration of Uncertainty in Remote­sensing Classification Frans J.M. van der Wel Utrecht analysis of remotely­sensed data aims at acquiring insight as to the stability of possible classifications for an overwhelming flow of data on the appearance and condition of our planet. The data yielded by remote sensing can

  14. COMPARISON OF UNCERTAINTY PARAMETERISATIONS FOR H ROBUST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cambridge, University of

    COMPARISON OF UNCERTAINTY PARAMETERISATIONS FOR H ROBUST CONTROL OF TURBOCHARGED DIESEL ENGINES arose during the model validation for a turbocharged diesel engine (cf. Sections 2 and 3). Mismatches PROBLEM The plant to be controlled is a turbocharged pas- senger car diesel engine equipped with exhaust

  15. Economic and emissions impacts of renewable fuel goals for aviation in the US*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    for Global Change Science (CGCS) and the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR renewable oils. Our approach employs an economy-wide model of economic activity and energy systemsEconomic and emissions impacts of renewable fuel goals for aviation in the US* Niven Winchester

  16. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01

    of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse GasesLife-Cycle Assessment of Biofuels. Environmental Science &cellulosic ethanol. Biotechnol Biofuels 6 (1), 51. Elliott,

  17. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01

    distributions for soybean biodiesel (food fixed) . . . . . .distributions for soybean biodiesel (food not fixed) . . .land use from expanded biodiesel production. Technical

  18. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Impacts of United States Biofuel Policies: The Importance ofcoproduct substitution in the biofuel era. Agribusiness 27 (CGE: assessing the EU biofuel mandates with the MIRAGE-BioF

  19. Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael

    2015-01-01

    an increase in biofuel production. According to several;emissions from ILUC. Biofuel production also affects foodfrom increased biofuel production. AEZ- EF takes the GTAP

  20. Uncertainty Quantification of Composite Laminate Damage with the Generalized Information Theory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J. Lucero; F. Hemez; T. Ross; K.Kline; J.Hundhausen; T. Tippetts

    2006-05-01

    This work presents a survey of five theories to assess the uncertainty of projectile impact induced damage on multi-layered carbon-epoxy composite plates. Because the types of uncertainty dealt with in this application are multiple (variability, ambiguity, and conflict) and because the data sets collected are sparse, characterizing the amount of delamination damage with probability theory alone is possible but incomplete. This motivates the exploration of methods contained within a broad Generalized Information Theory (GIT) that rely on less restrictive assumptions than probability theory. Probability, fuzzy sets, possibility, and imprecise probability (probability boxes (p-boxes) and Dempster-Shafer) are used to assess the uncertainty in composite plate damage. Furthermore, this work highlights the usefulness of each theory. The purpose of the study is not to compare directly the different GIT methods but to show that they can be deployed on a practical application and to compare the assumptions upon which these theories are based. The data sets consist of experimental measurements and finite element predictions of the amount of delamination and fiber splitting damage as multilayered composite plates are impacted by a projectile at various velocities. The physical experiments consist of using a gas gun to impact suspended plates with a projectile accelerated to prescribed velocities, then, taking ultrasound images of the resulting delamination. The nonlinear, multiple length-scale numerical simulations couple local crack propagation implemented through cohesive zone modeling to global stress-displacement finite element analysis. The assessment of damage uncertainty is performed in three steps by, first, considering the test data only; then, considering the simulation data only; finally, performing an assessment of total uncertainty where test and simulation data sets are combined. This study leads to practical recommendations for reducing the uncertainty and improving the prediction accuracy of the damage modeling and finite element simulation.

  1. Global Focus Microscope The Global Health Challenge

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . To address this need, we developed the Global Focus Microscope (GFM): a portable, battery- powered, inverted digi- tal images, the Global Focus Microscope comes with shelf for an iPhone 4. Figure 1. From left to right: Malaria parasites imaged at 1000x in bright field mode, tuberculosis imaged at 400x in bright

  2. A flexible uncertainty quantification method for linearly coupled multi-physics systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, Xiao Ng, Brenda; Sun, Yunwei; Tong, Charles

    2013-09-01

    Highlights: •We propose a “modularly hybrid” UQ methodology suitable for independent development of module-based multi-physics simulation. •Our algorithmic framework allows for each module to have its own UQ method (either intrusive or non-intrusive). •Information from each module is combined systematically to propagate “global uncertainty”. •Our proposed approach can allow for easy swapping of new methods for any modules without the need to address incompatibilities. •We demonstrate the proposed framework on a practical application involving a multi-species reactive transport model. -- Abstract: This paper presents a novel approach to building an integrated uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodology suitable for modern-day component-based approach for multi-physics simulation development. Our “hybrid” UQ methodology supports independent development of the most suitable UQ method, intrusive or non-intrusive, for each physics module by providing an algorithmic framework to couple these “stochastic” modules for propagating “globaluncertainties. We address algorithmic and computational issues associated with the construction of this hybrid framework. We demonstrate the utility of such a framework on a practical application involving a linearly coupled multi-species reactive transport model.

  3. AN ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS APPROACH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bateman, Ian J.

    (0)1603 593743, Fax.: 0044(0)1603 593739 Acknowledgements The support of the Economic and Social Research Council, as well as from hydrological perturbation, pollution and pollution-related effects (Turner, 1991 involving some direct utilisation of one or more wetland characteristics. Wetland ecosystem processes also

  4. Economics of Irrigation Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Amosson, Stephen H.; New, Leon; Almas, Lal; Bretz, Fran; Marek, Thomas

    2002-01-11

    ) on peanuts. Background photo: mid-elevation spray application (MESA) center pivot, single head. Opposite page: Subsurface drip irrigation system diagram. Back cover inset: Low energy precision application (LEPA) center pivot on peanut. Economics of Irrigation...) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 Mid-elevation spray application (MESA) center pivot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 Low elevation spray application (LESA) center pivot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 Low energy precision...

  5. Opportunity and Economic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Northern British Columbia, University of

    of projects related to wood pellet emissions, operations, economics, and applications. The facility would to conduct research on wood and resource management issues. Immediate research priorities will include a host research partnerships, and be an architectural prototype for natural materials, innovative wood products

  6. ECONOMIC IMPACT THE DOLLARS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hayden, Nancy J.

    ECONOMIC IMPACT THE DOLLARS $438,725,000 in direct annual Universi- ty-related spending in Vermont. $1,009,000,000 in direct and indirect impact on the Vermont economy. $390,725,000 in compensation-related expenditures within the Vermont economy. $1,600,000,000 in annual earnings of 31,400 alumni living in Vermont

  7. Renewable Energy Economic Development

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Renewable Energy Economic Development Dick Sheehy & Nate Monosoff, CH2M HILL March, 2010 #12;Contents 1. Who is CH2M HILL? 2. Why Do We Need Renewables? 3. Where Is The Wind Blowing? 4. Where Is The Sun Shining? 5. How To Catch Some Rays? 6. Renewable Related 2 Proprietary & Confidential #12;Where

  8. Assessing Fatigue and Ultimate Load Uncertainty in Floating Offshore Wind Turbines Due to Varying Simulation Length

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stewart, G.; Lackner, M.; Haid, L.; Matha, D.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.

    2013-07-01

    With the push towards siting wind turbines farther offshore due to higher wind quality and less visibility, floating offshore wind turbines, which can be located in deep water, are becoming an economically attractive option. The International Electrotechnical Commission's (IEC) 61400-3 design standard covers fixed-bottom offshore wind turbines, but there are a number of new research questions that need to be answered to modify these standards so that they are applicable to floating wind turbines. One issue is the appropriate simulation length needed for floating turbines. This paper will discuss the results from a study assessing the impact of simulation length on the ultimate and fatigue loads of the structure, and will address uncertainties associated with changing the simulation length for the analyzed floating platform. Recommendations of required simulation length based on load uncertainty will be made and compared to current simulation length requirements.

  9. UBC Social Ecological Economic Development Studies (SEEDS) Student Report Assessing the Sustainability of the UBC Campus

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    food is often processed, transported, viewed, purchased, eaten, and how wastes are handled on a global, purchased, eaten, and how waste is handled on a global scale. Food and the Earth's resources are increasing Footprint - Food Miles 6 7 9 11 Social Indicator - Nutrition 13 Economic Indicator - Food Affordability 15

  10. The Global Brain is Neither Global nor a Brain

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rocha, Luis

    The Global Brain is Neither Global nor a Brain Adaptive Webs for Heterarchies Luis Mateus Rocha-organism or a global brain? The Global Brain Is Neither Global nor a Brain #12;!Disembodied Brain Disembodied brains on symbol-matter requirements for open-ended evolution) The Global Brain Is Neither Global Nor a Brain #12

  11. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA BEFORE THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    light of the recent global economic changes including "a steep decrease in the price of oil" which has "created uncertainty regarding the economics of the Project." 10 Excelerate...

  12. Supporting qualified database for uncertainty evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Petruzzi, A.; Fiori, F.; Kovtonyuk, A.; D'Auria, F. [Nuclear Research Group of San Piero A Grado, Univ. of Pisa, Via Livornese 1291, 56122 Pisa (Italy)

    2012-07-01

    Uncertainty evaluation constitutes a key feature of BEPU (Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty) process. The uncertainty can be the result of a Monte Carlo type analysis involving input uncertainty parameters or the outcome of a process involving the use of experimental data and connected code calculations. Those uncertainty methods are discussed in several papers and guidelines (IAEA-SRS-52, OECD/NEA BEMUSE reports). The present paper aims at discussing the role and the depth of the analysis required for merging from one side suitable experimental data and on the other side qualified code calculation results. This aspect is mostly connected with the second approach for uncertainty mentioned above, but it can be used also in the framework of the first approach. Namely, the paper discusses the features and structure of the database that includes the following kinds of documents: 1. The' RDS-facility' (Reference Data Set for the selected facility): this includes the description of the facility, the geometrical characterization of any component of the facility, the instrumentations, the data acquisition system, the evaluation of pressure losses, the physical properties of the material and the characterization of pumps, valves and heat losses; 2. The 'RDS-test' (Reference Data Set for the selected test of the facility): this includes the description of the main phenomena investigated during the test, the configuration of the facility for the selected test (possible new evaluation of pressure and heat losses if needed) and the specific boundary and initial conditions; 3. The 'QR' (Qualification Report) of the code calculation results: this includes the description of the nodalization developed following a set of homogeneous techniques, the achievement of the steady state conditions and the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the transient with the characterization of the Relevant Thermal-Hydraulics Aspects (RTA); 4. The EH (Engineering Handbook) of the input nodalization: this includes the rationale adopted for each part of the nodalization, the user choices, and the systematic derivation and justification of any value present in the code input respect to the values as indicated in the RDS-facility and in the RDS-test. (authors)

  13. Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Kelic, Andjelka; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2009-10-01

    Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to the economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.

  14. *Reprinted from Climate Change and Economic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    temperatures and deep uncertainty about trends in precipitation. This article evaluates the potential: agriculture, road infrastructure and hydropower generation. We account explicitly for the uncertainty

  15. Representation of analysis results involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, Jay Dean; Helton, Jon Craig; Oberkampf, William Louis; Sallaberry, Cedric J.

    2008-08-01

    Procedures are described for the representation of results in analyses that involve both aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty, with aleatory uncertainty deriving from an inherent randomness in the behavior of the system under study and epistemic uncertainty deriving from a lack of knowledge about the appropriate values to use for quantities that are assumed to have fixed but poorly known values in the context of a specific study. Aleatory uncertainty is usually represented with probability and leads to cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) or complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) for analysis results of interest. Several mathematical structures are available for the representation of epistemic uncertainty, including interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory and probability theory. In the presence of epistemic uncertainty, there is not a single CDF or CCDF for a given analysis result. Rather, there is a family of CDFs and a corresponding family of CCDFs that derive from epistemic uncertainty and have an uncertainty structure that derives from the particular uncertainty structure (i.e., interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory, probability theory) used to represent epistemic uncertainty. Graphical formats for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in families of CDFs and CCDFs are investigated and presented for the indicated characterizations of epistemic uncertainty.

  16. Before House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations, Committee on Foreign Affairs Before House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health,...

  17. Cows Causing Global Warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hacker, Randi

    2008-08-06

    Broadcast Transcript: Remember when President Reagan blamed trees for air pollution? Well now the Japanese are blaming cows for global warming. Apparently, the methane emissions from burping cows account for 5% of all global greenhouse gases. Simple...

  18. Review: Globalization of Water

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tennant, Matthew Aaron

    2009-01-01

    Review: Globalization of Water: Sharing the Planet’sAshok K. Globalization of Water: Sharing the Planet’s140) liters of virtual water (p. 15). This is one of the

  19. Globalization of biopharmaceutical manufacturing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pande, Rachna

    2011-01-01

    The biomanufacturing industry is changing due to increasing globalization. However, it is changing differently from other high tech industries like software/ semiconductor/ automobiles. In this study we use global ...

  20. Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Reinert, Rhonda K.; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-04-01

    Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-model ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.

  1. Military implications of global warming. Strategy research project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greene, P.E.

    1999-05-20

    The 1998 National Security Strategy repeatedly cites global environmental issues as key to the long-term security of the United States. Similarly, US environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current US Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate change. It discusses related economic factors and environmental concerns. It assesses current White House policy as it relates to the US military. It reviews the Department of Defense strategy for energy conservation and reduction of greenhouse gases. Finally, it offers recommendations and options for military involvement to reduce global warming. Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the US military. As the United States leadership in environmental matters encourages global stability, the US military will be able to focus more on readiness and on military training and operations.

  2. Winners and losers in a world with global warming: Noncooperation, altruism, and social welfare

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Caplan, A.J.; Ellis, C.J.; Silva, E.C.D.

    1999-05-01

    In this paper, global warming is an asymmetric transboundary externality which benefits some countries or regions and harms others. Few environmental problems have captured the public`s imagination as much and attracted as much scrutiny as global warming. The general perception is that global warming is a net social bad, and that across-the-board abatement of greenhouse gas emissions is therefore desirable. Despite many interesting academic contributions, not all of the basic economics of this phenomenon have been fully worked out. The authors use a simple two-country model to analyze the effects of global warming on resource allocations, the global-warming stock, and national and global welfare.

  3. On solar geoengineering and climate uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MacMartin, Douglas; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-09-03

    Uncertainty in the climate system response has been raised as a concern regarding solar geoengineering. Here we show that model projections of regional climate change outcomes may have greater agreement under solar geoengineering than with CO2 alone. We explore the effects of geoengineering on one source of climate system uncertainty by evaluating the inter-model spread across 12 climate models participating in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison project (GeoMIP). The model spread in regional temperature and precipitation changes is reduced with CO2 and a solar reduction, in comparison to the case with increased CO2 alone. That is, the intermodel spread in predictions of climate change and the model spread in the response to solar geoengineering are not additive but rather partially cancel. Furthermore, differences in efficacy explain most of the differences between models in their temperature response to an increase in CO2 that is offset by a solar reduction. These conclusions are important for clarifying geoengineering risks.

  4. Uncertainty in BWR power during ATWS events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diamond, D.J.

    1986-01-01

    A study was undertaken to improve our understanding of BWR conditions following the closure of main steam isolation valves and the failure of reactor trip. Of particular interest was the power during the period when the core had reached a quasi-equilibrium condition with a natural circulation flow rate determined by the water level in the downcomer. Insights into the uncertainity in the calculation of this power with sophisticated computer codes were quantified using a simple model which relates power to the principal thermal-hydraulic variables and reactivity coefficients; the latter representing the link between the thermal-hydraulics and the neutronics. Assumptions regarding the uncertainty in these variables and coefficients were then used to determine the uncertainty in power.

  5. Integrated automotive exhaust engineering : uncertainty management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fang, Xitian, 1963-

    2006-01-01

    The global automotive industry has entered a stagnating period. Automotive OEMs and their tier suppliers are struggling for business growth. One of the most important strategies is to improve the engineering efficiency in ...

  6. Depression during exacerbations in multiple sclerosis: the importance of uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kroencke, Dawn C.; Denney, Douglas R.; Lynch, Sharon G.

    2001-08-01

    or not they were currently experiencing an exacerbation of their symptoms); (b) their level of uncertainty concerning their illness, and (c) their strategies for coping with their illness. A current exacerbation in symptoms, greater uncertainty of illness...

  7. A Framework for Modeling Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the US associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources ...

  8. Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort David.; Forest, Chris Eliot.; Reilly, John M.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Mayer, Monika.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H.; Wang, Chien.

    To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the uncertainty in ...

  9. Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Building Operations and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Building Operations and Weather for a Medium-Size Office Building Liping Wang, Paul Mathew, Xiufeng Pang Environmental Energy Technologies Division between predicted and actual building energy consumption can be attributed to uncertainties introduced

  10. Information-Disturbance theorem and Uncertainty Relation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Takayuki Miyadera; Hideki Imai

    2007-07-31

    It has been shown that Information-Disturbance theorem can play an important role in security proof of quantum cryptography. The theorem is by itself interesting since it can be regarded as an information theoretic version of uncertainty principle. It, however, has been able to treat restricted situations. In this paper, the restriction on the source is abandoned, and a general information-disturbance theorem is obtained. The theorem relates information gain by Eve with information gain by Bob.

  11. Uncertainty estimates for derivatives and intercepts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clark, E.L.

    1990-01-01

    Straight line least squares fits of experimental data are widely used in the analysis of test results to provide derivatives and intercepts. A method for evaluating the uncertainty in these parameters is described. The method utilizes conventional least squares results and is applicable to experiments where the independent variable is controlled, but not necessarily free of error. A Monte Carlo verification of the method is given 7 refs., 2 tabs.

  12. Uncertainty estimates for derivatives and intercepts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clark, E.L.

    1994-09-01

    Straight line least squares fits of experimental data are widely used in the analysis of test results to provide derivatives and intercepts. A method for evaluating the uncertainty in these parameters is described. The method utilizes conventional least squares results and is applicable to experiments where the independent variable is controlled, but not necessarily free of error. A Monte Carlo verification of the method is given.

  13. Quantifying uncertainty in stable isotope mixing models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Davis, Paul; Syme, James; Heikoop, Jeffrey; Fessenden-Rahn, Julianna; Perkins, George; Newman, Brent; Chrystal, Abbey E.; Hagerty, Shannon B.

    2015-05-19

    Mixing models are powerful tools for identifying biogeochemical sources and determining mixing fractions in a sample. However, identification of actual source contributors is often not simple, and source compositions typically vary or even overlap, significantly increasing model uncertainty in calculated mixing fractions. This study compares three probabilistic methods, SIAR [Parnell et al., 2010] a pure Monte Carlo technique (PMC), and Stable Isotope Reference Source (SIRS) mixing model, a new technique that estimates mixing in systems with more than three sources and/or uncertain source compositions. In this paper, we use nitrate stable isotope examples (?15N and ?18O) but all methods testedmore »are applicable to other tracers. In Phase I of a three-phase blind test, we compared methods for a set of six-source nitrate problems. PMC was unable to find solutions for two of the target water samples. The Bayesian method, SIAR, experienced anchoring problems, and SIRS calculated mixing fractions that most closely approximated the known mixing fractions. For that reason, SIRS was the only approach used in the next phase of testing. In Phase II, the problem was broadened where any subset of the six sources could be a possible solution to the mixing problem. Results showed a high rate of Type I errors where solutions included sources that were not contributing to the sample. In Phase III some sources were eliminated based on assumed site knowledge and assumed nitrate concentrations, substantially reduced mixing fraction uncertainties and lowered the Type I error rate. These results demonstrate that valuable insights into stable isotope mixing problems result from probabilistic mixing model approaches like SIRS. The results also emphasize the importance of identifying a minimal set of potential sources and quantifying uncertainties in source isotopic composition as well as demonstrating the value of additional information in reducing the uncertainty in calculated mixing fractions.« less

  14. CHILLING CONSIDERATIONS GLOBAL WARMING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schwartz, Stephen E.

    CHILLING CONSIDERATIONS REGARDING GLOBAL WARMING Stephen E. Schwartz http IS INCREASING Global carbon dioxide concentration over the last thousand years Polar ice cores #12;Mann et al 1000-1850) 1998 THE TEMPERATURE'S RISING #12;GLOBAL ANNUAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALY, 1880-2008 0.8 0.6 0.4 0

  15. SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE GLOBAL WARMING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schwartz, Stephen E.

    SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE FOR GLOBAL WARMING Stephen E. Schwartz Jefferson's Ferry Public Affairs century. The warmest year of the millennium was 1998. #12;EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING OTHER THAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY The global ocean has warmed significantly since the late 1940s: more than half

  16. Carbon Dioxide & Global Warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miami, University of

    Carbon Dioxide & Global Warming University of MiaMi rosenstiel sChool of Marine anD atMospheriC s , organic carbon, and other chemicals that contribute to global warming in a variety of studies. DownCienCe 4600 rickenbacker Causeway Miami, florida 33149 http://www.rsmas.miami.edu the Chemistry of Global

  17. Global Information Technologies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Keromytis, Angelos D.

    Global Information Technologies: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications Felix B. Tan in the United States of America by Information Science Reference (an imprint of IGI Global) 701 E. Chocolate (an imprint of IGI Global) 3 Henrietta Street Covent Garden London WC2E 8LU Tel: 44 20 7240 0856 Fax

  18. Meteorology as Infrastructural Globalism

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Edwards, Paul N.

    the history of a global governance institution, the World Me- teorological Organization (WMO), from its (from the 1967 inauguration of the Intelsat system) and global environmental monitoring (from the UN Confer- ence on the Human Environment, 1972). Throughout, Hewson sees global governance institutions

  19. GLOBAL TAXONOMY INITIATIVE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grant, Taran

    #12;THE GLOBAL TAXONOMY INITIATIVE: Using Systematic Inventories to Meet Country and Regional Needs (COP) to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) has endorsed a GlobalTaxonomy Initiative (GTI workshop, The Global Taxonomy Initiative: Shortening the Distance between Discovery and Delivery, made

  20. Dynamic diagnostic and decision procedures under uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baranov, V.V.

    1995-01-01

    In this paper, we consider uncertainty that arises when the true state x {element_of} E is not accessible to direct observation and remains unknown. Instead, we observe some features {theta} {element_of} {Theta} that carry a certain information about the true state. This information is described by the conditional distribution P({Theta}{vert_bar}E), which we call the linkage distribution. Regarding this distribution we assume that it exists but is unknown. This leads to uncertainty with respect to states from E and the linkage distribution P({Theta}{vert_bar}E), which we denote by NEP. The substantive problem can be stated as follows: from observations of the features {theta}{element_of}{Theta} made at each time instant n = 1,2,...,recognize the state x {element_of} E, identify the linkage distribution P, and use the results of recognition and identification to choose a decision y {element_of} Y so that the decision process is optimal in some sense. State recognition is the subject of diagnostics. The uncertainty NEP thus generates a problem of diagnostics and dynamic decision making.

  1. Generalized Uncertainty Principle: Approaches and Applications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel Nasser Tawfik; Abdel Magied Diab

    2014-11-23

    We review highlights from string theory, black hole physics and doubly special relativity and some "thought" experiments which were suggested to probe the shortest distance and/or the maximum momentum at the Planck scale. The models which are designed to implement the minimal length scale and/or the maximum momentum in different physical systems are analysed entered the literature as the Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP). We compare between them. The existence of a minimal length and a maximum momentum accuracy is preferred by various physical observations. Furthermore, assuming modified dispersion relation allows for a wide range of applications in estimating, for example, the inflationary parameters, Lorentz invariance violation, black hole thermodynamics, Saleker-Wigner inequalities, entropic nature of the gravitational laws, Friedmann equations, minimal time measurement and thermodynamics of the high-energy collisions. One of the higher-order GUP approaches gives predictions for the minimal length uncertainty. Another one predicts a maximum momentum and a minimal length uncertainty, simultaneously. An extensive comparison between the different GUP approaches is summarized. We also discuss the GUP impacts on the equivalence principles including the universality of the gravitational redshift and the free fall and law of reciprocal action and on the kinetic energy of composite system. The concern about the compatibility with the equivalence principles, the universality of gravitational redshift and the free fall and law of reciprocal action should be addressed. We conclude that the value of the GUP parameters remain a puzzle to be verified.

  2. Uncertainty and Complementarity Relations in Weak Measurement

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arun Kumar Pati; Junde Wu

    2014-11-26

    We prove uncertainty relations that quantitatively express the impossibility of jointly sharp preparation of pre- and post-selected quantum states for measuring incompatible observables during the weak measurement. By defining a suitable operator whose average in the pre-selected quantum state gives the weak value, we show that one can have new uncertainty relations for variances of two such operators corresponding to two non-commuting observables. These generalize the recent stronger uncertainty relations that give non-trivial lower bounds for the sum of variances of two observables which fully capture the concept of incompatible observables. Furthermore, we show that weak values for two non-commuting projection operators obey a complementarity relation. Specifically, we show that for a pre-selected state if we measure a projector corresponding to an observable $A$ weakly followed by the strong measurement of another observable $B$ (for the post-selection) and, for the same pre-selected state we measure a projector corresponding to an observable $B$ weakly followed by the strong measurement of the observable $A$ (for the post-selection), then the product of these two weak values is always less than one. This shows that even though individually they are complex and can be large, their product is always bounded.

  3. The Impact of Nuclear Reaction Rate Uncertainties on Evolutionary Studies of the Nova Outburst

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    W. Raphael Hix; Michael S. Smith; Anthony Mezzacappa; Sumner Starrfield; Donald L. Smith

    2000-01-27

    The observable consequences of a nova outburst depend sensitively on the details of the thermonuclear runaway which initiates the outburst. One of the more important sources of uncertainty is the nuclear reaction data used as input for the evolutionary calculations. A recent paper by Starrfield, Truran, Wiescher, & Sparks (1998) has demonstrated that changes in the reaction rate library used within a nova simulation have significant effects, not just on the production of individual isotopes (which can change by an order of magnitude), but on global observables such as the peak luminosity and the amount of mass ejected. We present preliminary results of systematic analyses of the impact of reaction rate uncertainties on nova nucleosynthesis.

  4. Economics of Steam Pressure Reduction 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sylva, D. M.

    1985-01-01

    Economics of Steam Pressure Reduction is a technical paper that addresses the operating and economic advantages associated with the program to lower the steam operating pressure. Evaluation of a testing program will be discussed. The paper...

  5. Cogeneration: Economics and politics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prince, R.G.H.; Poole, M.L.

    1996-12-31

    Cogeneration is a well established process for supplying heat and electricity from a single fuel source. Its feasibility and implementation in any particular case depend on technical, economic and internal and external {open_quotes}cultural{close_quotes} factors, including government policies. This paper describes the current status of small scale industrial cogeneration in Australia. A model has been developed to analyse the technical and economic aspects of retrofitting gas turbine cogeneration in the size range 3 to 30MW to industrial sites. The model demonstrates that for typical Australian energy cost data, the payback and the size of the optimized cogeneration plant depend strongly on electricity buyback prices. Also reviewed are some of the {open_quotes}cultural{close_quotes} factors which often militate against an otherwise economic installation, and government policies which may retard cogeneration by concern about local air emissions or favor it as increasing efficiency of energy use and reducing greenhouse emissions. A case study of a small gas turbine plant in Australia is outlined. 2 refs., 2 figs.

  6. Bayesiannetwork Confirmation of Software Testing Uncertainties Debra J. Richardson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ziv, Hadar

    Bayesian­network Confirmation of Software Testing Uncertainties Hadar Ziv Debra J. Richardson presentation of uncertainty in software testing. We then propose that a specific technique, known as Bayesian Belief Networks, be used to model software testing uncertainties. We demonstrate the use of Bayesian

  7. Estimating uncertainty of streamflow simulation using Bayesian neural networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liang, Faming

    Estimating uncertainty of streamflow simulation using Bayesian neural networks Xuesong Zhang,1 neural networks (BNNs) are powerful tools for providing reliable hydrologic prediction and quantifying of the uncertainties related to parameters (neural network's weights) and model structures were applied for uncertainty

  8. Estimating Uncertainty of Streamflow Simulation using Bayesian Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Estimating Uncertainty of Streamflow Simulation using Bayesian Neural Networks Xuesong Zhang1-2607 Email: r-srinivasan@tamu.edu 1 #12;Abstract: Recent studies have shown that Bayesian Neural Networks of the uncertainties related to parameters (neural network's weights) and model structures were applied for uncertainty

  9. Aperture Photometry Uncertainties assuming Priors and Correlated Noise

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Masci, Frank

    1 Aperture Photometry Uncertainties assuming Priors and Correlated Noise F. Masci, version 2.0, 10 aperture photometry assuming (i) prior pixel-flux uncertainties are available for the image (e.g., computed photometry is being performed. One way to do this is to compare the uncertainties with the local RMS pixel

  10. UNCERTAINTY IN PALEOECOLOGICAL STUDIES OF MERCURY IN SEDIMENT CORES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gottgens, Hans

    UNCERTAINTY IN PALEOECOLOGICAL STUDIES OF MERCURY IN SEDIMENT CORES JOHAN F. GOTTGENS1,, BRIAN E by as much as ±48%. Uncertainty in paleoecological studies of mercury needs to be documented in order, paleoecology, sediment cores, uncertainty 1. Introduction Paleoecological studies of lakes, wetlands

  11. Uncertainty, Subjectivity, Trust and Risk: How It All Fits Together

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stølen, Ketil

    Uncertainty, Subjectivity, Trust and Risk: How It All Fits Together Bjørnar Solhaug1 and Ketil uncertainty, subjective, objective, trust, risk, trust management. 1 Aleatory Uncertainty vs. Epistemic be reduced by narrowing the interval and thereby making a more precise prediction. 2 Objective vs. Subjective

  12. Refugee Rights and Wrongs: Global Cultural Diffusion among the Congolese in South Africa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levitt, Peggy

    Every day the media is filled with examples of the ways in which contemporary social, economic, and political life transcends national borders. Some researchers argue that these dynamics attest to the emergence of a global ...

  13. One: The California Economic Outlook

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thornberg, Christopher

    2006-01-01

    THE CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Christopher Thornberg,signs of having peaked. The outlook for 2006 is dominated by

  14. Faculty of Social Sciences School of Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    St Andrews, University of

    Faculty of Social Sciences School of Economics Postgraduate Courses Winner Whatuni.com Student Choice Awards #12;Contents 01 Welcome to the School of Economics 02 Why Study Economics at the University Economics 07 MSc Finance and Economics 08 MSc Industrial Economics 09 MSc Experimental Economics 10 MSc

  15. Challenges, uncertainties and issues facing gas production from gas hydrate deposits

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Moridis, G.J.; Collett, T.S.; Pooladi-Darvish, M.; Hancock, S.; Santamarina, C.; Boswell, R.; Kneafsey, T.; Rutqvist, J.; Kowalsky, M.; Reagan, M.T.; Sloan, E.D.; Sum, A.K.; Koh, C.

    2010-11-01

    The current paper complements the Moridis et al. (2009) review of the status of the effort toward commercial gas production from hydrates. We aim to describe the concept of the gas hydrate petroleum system, to discuss advances, requirement and suggested practices in gas hydrate (GH) prospecting and GH deposit characterization, and to review the associated technical, economic and environmental challenges and uncertainties, including: the accurate assessment of producible fractions of the GH resource, the development of methodologies for identifying suitable production targets, the sampling of hydrate-bearing sediments and sample analysis, the analysis and interpretation of geophysical surveys of GH reservoirs, well testing methods and interpretation of the results, geomechanical and reservoir/well stability concerns, well design, operation and installation, field operations and extending production beyond sand-dominated GH reservoirs, monitoring production and geomechanical stability, laboratory investigations, fundamental knowledge of hydrate behavior, the economics of commercial gas production from hydrates, and the associated environmental concerns.

  16. Economic Instruments and the Environment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Research and Consulting; Rick McDougall and his staff at the Program Evaluation and Economic Analysis#12;!!! Economic Instruments and the Environment: Selected Legal Issues by Christopher Rolfe Canada funded the research for this publication in order to catalyze discussion on the use of economic

  17. Wireless Network Economics and Games

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Huang, Jianwei

    Wireless Network Economics and Games Jianwei Huang Network Communications & Economics Lab-play-games/id642100914! ! · J. Huang and L. Gao, "Wireless Network Pricing," Synthesis Lectures on Communication Networks://jianwei.ie.cuhk.edu.hk/publication/Book/ WirelessNetworkPricing.pdf! ! #12;Why Wireless Economics and Games? #12;Wireless Utopia · Wireless spectrum

  18. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, J.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.

    1997-06-01

    This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  19. Comparative economics: evolution and the modern economy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vermeij, Geerat J.

    2009-01-01

    foundations of economics (pp. 367–390). Cambridge, UK:Press. Comparative economics: evolution and the modernPress. Hirshleifer, J. (1977). Economics from a biological

  20. Essays on the Economics of Crime

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rozo Villarraga, Sandra V.

    2015-01-01

    A. (2005). The welfare economics of public policy. Edwardlos Andes. Cum Laude. B.A. , Economics, Universidad de losCareer Scholar. UCLA Economics Department TA Fellowship.

  1. Teaching Economics Interactively: A Cannibal's Dinner Party

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bergstrom, Ted C

    2007-01-01

    toll. Work- ing Paper, Economics Department, University ofOctober 26, 2007 I begin my economics principles classes bylife. Those who study economics and other social sciences

  2. Evaluating Economizer Use In Data Centers

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chu, Benjamin

    2009-01-01

    Evaluating Economizer Use in Data Centers Benjamin Chu“,eelet Keywords: Data centers, economizers, HVAC, indoor airfor data centers are economizers, which turn off the power

  3. Data Center Economizer Contamination and Humidity Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shehabi, Arman

    2010-01-01

    Program Data Center Economizer Contamination and Humiditylevels for computers. Air economizer cycles, which bring insites to determine how economizers affect humidity control.

  4. Evaluating Economizer Use In Data Centers

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chu, Benjamin

    2009-01-01

    to conserve energy. AIR-SIDE ECONOMIZERS A novel buildingcon- sumption is to use air—side economizers. The Lawrenceincrease costs. The air- side economizer concept thus uses

  5. Methodology for characterizing modeling and discretization uncertainties in computational simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    ALVIN,KENNETH F.; OBERKAMPF,WILLIAM L.; RUTHERFORD,BRIAN M.; DIEGERT,KATHLEEN V.

    2000-03-01

    This research effort focuses on methodology for quantifying the effects of model uncertainty and discretization error on computational modeling and simulation. The work is directed towards developing methodologies which treat model form assumptions within an overall framework for uncertainty quantification, for the purpose of developing estimates of total prediction uncertainty. The present effort consists of work in three areas: framework development for sources of uncertainty and error in the modeling and simulation process which impact model structure; model uncertainty assessment and propagation through Bayesian inference methods; and discretization error estimation within the context of non-deterministic analysis.

  6. Economics of Alaska North Slope gas utilization options

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, C.P.; Doughty, T.C.; Hackworth, J.H.; North, W.B.; Robertson, E.P.

    1996-08-01

    The recoverable natural gas available for sale in the developed and known undeveloped fields on the Alaskan North Slope (ANS) total about 26 trillion cubic feet (TCF), including 22 TCF in the Prudhoe Bay Unit (PBU) and 3 TCF in the undeveloped Point Thomson Unit (PTU). No significant commercial use has been made of this large natural gas resource because there are no facilities in place to transport this gas to current markets. To date the economics have not been favorable to support development of a gas transportation system. However, with the declining trend in ANS oil production, interest in development of this huge gas resource is rising, making it important for the U.S. Department of Energy, industry, and the State of Alaska to evaluate and assess the options for development of this vast gas resource. The purpose of this study was to assess whether gas-to-liquids (GTL) conversion technology would be an economic alternative for the development and sale of the large, remote, and currently unmarketable ANS natural gas resource, and to compare the long term economic impact of a GTL conversion option to that of the more frequently discussed natural gas pipeline/liquefied natural gas (LNG) option. The major components of the study are: an assessment of the ANS oil and gas resources; an analysis of conversion and transportation options; a review of natural gas, LNG, and selected oil product markets; and an economic analysis of the LNG and GTL gas sales options based on publicly available input needed for assumptions of the economic variables. Uncertainties in assumptions are evaluated by determining the sensitivity of project economics to changes in baseline economic variables.

  7. Conflict Between Economic

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration would like submit the followingConcentrating Solar Deployment SystemConflict Between Economic

  8. Economic Development - SRSCRO

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefieldSulfateSciTechtail.Theory ofDid you not find what you wereDisclaimersMailEconomic Development As the

  9. MTBE Production Economics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration would likeUniverseIMPACTThousandReport) | SciTechAdministrationMTBE Production Economics Tancred

  10. Measurement uncertainty in surface flatness measurement

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    H. L. Thang

    2011-11-29

    Flatness of a plate is a parameter has been put under consideration for long time. Factors influencing the accuracy of this parameter have been recognized and examined carefully but placed scatterringly. Beside that those reports have not been always in harmonization with Guide for expression of uncertainty measurement (GUM). Furthermore, mathematical equations describing clearly the flatness measurement have not been seen in those reports also. We have collected those influencing factors for systematic reference purpose, re-written the equation describing the profile measurement of the plate topography, and proposed an equation for flatness determination. An illustrative numerical example will be also shown.

  11. Gravitational tests of the Generalized Uncertainty Principle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fabio Scardigli; Roberto Casadio

    2014-07-01

    We compute the corrections to the Schwarzschild metric necessary to reproduce the Hawking temperature derived from a Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP), so that the GUP deformation parameter is directly linked to the deformation of the metric. Using this modified Schwarzschild metric, we compute corrections to the standard General Relativistic predictions for the light deflection and perihelion precession, both for planets in the solar system and for binary pulsars. This analysis allows us to set bounds for the GUP deformation parameter from well-known astronomical measurements.

  12. Characterizing Uncertainties in Ice Particle Size Distributions

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 OutreachProductswsicloudwsiclouddenDVA N C E D BGene Network ShapingDate:Characterization ofArcticUncertainties in

  13. Patent Protection, Market Uncertainty, and R&D Investment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Toole, Andrew A; Czarnitzki, Dirk

    2006-01-01

    Jean Olson. (1998). “Patent Protection in the ShadowSimulation Estimations of Patent Value,” Review of EconomicBenefits and Costs of Patents, Journal of Economic Issues,

  14. Climate change and the socioeconomics of global food production: A quantitative analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rambaut, Andrew

    1 Climate change and the socioeconomics of global food production: A quantitative analysis of how, Andrew J. Dougill and Piers M. Forster August 2010 Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper No. 29 #12;2 The Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) was established

  15. GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE WORKING PAPER NO. 09-03

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tufts University

    poverty. Potential steps towards a more responsible, "strongly objective," and policy-useful economics are discussed. Keywords: economics, ethics, policy, methodology, climate change, financial crisis, poverty and broadly, the persistent issue of global poverty and inequality, recent addressed in popular writings

  16. Development of a rapid global aircraft emissions estimation tool with uncertainty quantification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simone, Nicholas W. (Nicholas William)

    2013-01-01

    Aircraft emissions impact the environment by changing the radiative balance of the atmosphere and impact human health by adversely affecting air quality. Many tools used to quantify aircraft emissions are not open source ...

  17. Crop water stress under climate change uncertainty : global policy and regional risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gueneau, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    Fourty percent of all crops grown in the world today are grown using irrigation, and shifting precipitation patterns due to climate change are viewed as a major threat to food security. This thesis examines, in the framework ...

  18. Global Supply Chain Network Dynamics with Multicriteria Decision-Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    and the retailers since the retailers may be physical or virtual. In addition, supply-side risk and demand-side risk Anna Nagurney and Dmytro Matsypura Department of Finance and Operations Management Isenberg School of Management University of Massachusetts Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 submitted June 2004; revised December

  19. 2010-11 Princeton Global Scholar Giacomo Luciani

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singh, Jaswinder Pal

    2010-11 Princeton Global Scholar Giacomo Luciani Giacomo Luciani is the director of the Dubai economy of the Middle East, as well as the economics of energy in the Persian Gulf and the Arab world the rest of the world. He currently leads research on security of oil supplies within the SECURE project

  20. 8th Global warming international conference and exposition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-12-31

    Abstracts are presented from The 8th Annual Global Warming international conference and expo. Topics centered around greenhouse gas emission and disposal methods, policy and economics, carbon budget, and resource management. Individual reports have been processed separately for the United States Department of Energy databases.

  1. International NOAA's Priorities to Combat Global IUU Fishing in 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    International Fisheries NOAA's Priorities to Combat Global IUU Fishing in 2013 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is committed to promoting the sustainable management of fish stocks and supporting the economic health of U.S. fishing communities. Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU

  2. Benchmarks for Global Optimization and Continuous Constraint Satisfaction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Neumaier, Arnold

    . Executable versions of these test problems, as well as information on their sources, are publicly availableBenchmarks for Global Optimization and Continuous Constraint Satisfaction Oleg Shcherbina Institut, covering as far as possible all the categories of scienti#12;c, economical, technical, or industrial

  3. Global Environmental Governance Series Editor: John J. Kirton

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Colorado at Boulder, University of

    , and political governance, the series explores the role of international institutions and instruments, national, national, and global levels. Centred on the relationships among environmental change, economic forcesHR USA England Ashgate website: http://www.ashgate.com British Library Cataloguing in Publication

  4. griculture must be transformed. Although global food production is

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lehmann, Johannes

    `greenmanures',theeconomiccostof producingfoodinthiswayandtheneteffecton greenhouse-gasemissions6 .Inaddition,farming genetically modified crops is widely thoughtA griculture must be transformed. Although global food production is increasing, today's farming, food security (people's access to food and the qual- ity of that food), human health, and economic

  5. Agricultural and Resource Economics Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2011-01-01

    global commodity prices, oil price shocks, wages, and pricesof fuel. A continued rise in the price of oil combined with

  6. Automouse: An improvement to the mouse computerized uncertainty analysis system operational manual

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Klee, A.J.

    1992-08-01

    Under a mandate of national environmental laws, the agency strives to formulate and implement actions leading to a compatible balance between human activities and the ability of natural systems to support and nurture life. The Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory is responsible for planning, implementing, and managing research development, and demonstration programs to provide an authoritative, defensible engineering basis in support of the policies, programs, and regulations of the EPA with respect to drinking water, wastewater, pesticides, toxic substances, solid and hazardous wastes, and Superfund-related activities. The publication is one of the products of that research and provides a vital communication link between the researcher and the user community. The manual describes a system, called MOUSE (for Modular Oriented Uncertainty SystEm), for dealing with the computational problems of uncertainty, specifically in models that consist of a set of one or more equations. Since such models are frequently encountered in the fields of environmental science, risk analysis, economics, and engineering, the system has broad application throughout these fields. An important part of the MOUSE system is AutoMOUSE which actually writes the computer programs required for the uncertainty analysis computations. Thus, no prior programming knowledge is needed to learn or use MOUSE and, because of its transportability and compactness, the system can be run on a wide variety of personal computers available to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and/or its contractors and grantees.

  7. Solar Irradiances Measured using SPN1 Radiometers: Uncertainties and Clues for Development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Badosa, Jordi; Wood, John; Blanc, Philippe; Long, Charles N.; Vuilleumier, Laurent; Demengel, Dominique; Haeffelin, Martial

    2014-12-08

    The fast development of solar radiation and energy applications, such as photovoltaic and solar thermodynamic systems, has increased the need for solar radiation measurement and monitoring, not only for the global component but also the diffuse and direct. End users look for the best compromise between getting close to state-of-the-art measurements and keeping capital, maintenance and operating costs to a minimum. Among the existing commercial options, SPN1 is a relatively low cost solar radiometer that estimates global and diffuse solar irradiances from seven thermopile sensors under a shading mask and without moving parts. This work presents a comprehensive study of SPN1 accuracy and sources of uncertainty, which results from laboratory experiments, numerical modeling and comparison studies between measurements from this sensor and state-of-the art instruments for six diverse sites. Several clues are provided for improving the SPN1 accuracy and agreement with state-of-the-art measurements.

  8. Engineering the global ecosystem

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stringfellow, William T.; Jain, Ravi

    2010-01-01

    of humans deliberately engineering agricultural landscapes.010-0302-8 EDITORIAL Engineering the global ecosystemtale about human explorers engineering the ecosystem of Mars

  9. Uncertainties propagation in the framework of a Rod Ejection Accident modeling based on a multi-physics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Le Pallec, J. C.; Crouzet, N.; Bergeaud, V.; Delavaud, C. [CEA/DEN/DM2S, CEA/Saclay, 91191 Gif sur Yvette Cedex (France)

    2012-07-01

    The control of uncertainties in the field of reactor physics and their propagation in best-estimate modeling are a major issue in safety analysis. In this framework, the CEA develops a methodology to perform multi-physics simulations including uncertainties analysis. The present paper aims to present and apply this methodology for the analysis of an accidental situation such as REA (Rod Ejection Accident). This accident is characterized by a strong interaction between the different areas of the reactor physics (neutronic, fuel thermal and thermal hydraulic). The modeling is performed with CRONOS2 code. The uncertainties analysis has been conducted with the URANIE platform developed by the CEA: For each identified response from the modeling (output) and considering a set of key parameters with their uncertainties (input), a surrogate model in the form of a neural network has been produced. The set of neural networks is then used to carry out a sensitivity analysis which consists on a global variance analysis with the determination of the Sobol indices for all responses. The sensitivity indices are obtained for the input parameters by an approach based on the use of polynomial chaos. The present exercise helped to develop a methodological flow scheme, to consolidate the use of URANIE tool in the framework of parallel calculations. Finally, the use of polynomial chaos allowed computing high order sensitivity indices and thus highlighting and classifying the influence of identified uncertainties on each response of the analysis (single and interaction effects). (authors)

  10. Uncertainties in Galactic Chemical Evolution Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Côté, Benoit; O'Shea, Brian W; Herwig, Falk; Pignatari, Marco; Jones, Samuel; Fryer, Chris

    2015-01-01

    We use a simple one-zone galactic chemical evolution model to quantify the uncertainties generated by the input parameters in numerical predictions, for a galaxy with properties similar to those of the Milky Way. We compiled several studies from the literature to gather the current constraints for our simulations regarding the typical value and uncertainty of seven basic parameters, which are: the lower and upper mass limit of the stellar initial mass function (IMF), the slope of the high-mass end of the stellar IMF, the slope of the delay-time distribution function of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), the number of SNe Ia per solar mass formed, the total stellar mass formed, and the initial mass of gas of the galaxy. We derived a probability distribution function to express the range of likely values for every parameter, which were then included in a Monte Carlo code to run several hundred simulations with randomly selected input parameters. This approach enables us to analyze the predicted chemical evolution of ...

  11. Privatization and the globalization of energy markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-10-01

    This report reviews recent global efforts to privatize energy resources and outlines the opportunities and challenges privatization has presented to U.S. and foreign multinational energy companies. The group of energy companies studied in this report includes the major U.S. petroleum companies and many foreign companies. The foreign companies reviewed include state-run energy enterprises, recently privatized energy enterprises, and foreign multinationals that have been privately held. The privatization of non-petroleum energy industries, such as electricity generation and transmission, natural gas transmission, and coal mining, are also discussed. Overseas investments made by electric companies, natural gas companies, and coal companies are included. The report is organized into six chapters: (1) economics of privatization; (2) petroleum privatization efforts among non-U.S. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development nations; (3) petroleum privatization efforts in Latin America; (4) privatization in socialist and former socialist regimes; (5) privatization efforts in global electric power generation, transmission, and distribution industries; and (6) privatization and globalization of world coal.

  12. Modeling TechnologyModeling Technology Innovation:Innovation: Uncertainties inUncertainties in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    costs and preferred technologies? #12;2 E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon Focus on Innovation for technology for achieving climate change policy goals at the lowest cost, in conjunction with other mitigation1 Modeling TechnologyModeling Technology Innovation:Innovation: Uncertainties in

  13. No Country for Old Men: Aging Dictators and Economic Growth

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jong-A-Pin, Richard; Mierau, Jochen O.

    2011-09-13

    by choosing between investments in capital goods and extracting rents. Whereas investments in capital goods will ensure higher national income and higher future utility, extracting rents from the economy increases instantaneous utility but comes at the cost... such as the availability of natural resources or geographical characteristics, whereas year fixed effects control for global economic shocks such as the oil crises in 1973 and 1979. We include dictator fixed effects to control for individual characteristics of dictators...

  14. Assessing Oil-Related Investments Under a 2 C Global Objective

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Assessing Oil-Related Investments Under a 2 C Global Objective by James Hoffele B.A., B.Ed., Brock: James Hoffele Degree: Master of Resource Management Project No.: 618 Title of Project: Assessing Oil constraint would have on global oil markets to 2050, with a focus on the economic outlook for Canadian oil

  15. Undergraduate Courses in Department of Economics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Banaji,. Murad

    Undergraduate Courses in Department of Economics Economics #12;Contents 3 Welcome 4 A Leading Department 5 Departmental Facilities 6 BA and BSc Routes 7 Our BA and BSc Degrees 8 BA Economics and Accounting (L1N4) 9 BSc Economics and Accounting (LN14) 10 BA Economics (L100) 11 BSc Economics (L102) 12 BA

  16. Monte Carlo Methods for Uncertainty Quantification Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giles, Mike

    repository and oil reservoir modelling Considerable uncertainty about porosity of rock Astronomy "Random handling uncertainty: uncertainty in modelling parameters uncertainty in geometry uncertainty in initial 30­31, 2013 4 / 41 #12;PDEs with Uncertainty Examples: Long-term climate modelling: Lots of sources

  17. Survey and Evaluate Uncertainty Quantification Methodologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin, Guang; Engel, David W.; Eslinger, Paul W.

    2012-02-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a partnership among national laboratories, industry and academic institutions that will develop and deploy state-of-the-art computational modeling and simulation tools to accelerate the commercialization of carbon capture technologies from discovery to development, demonstration, and ultimately the widespread deployment to hundreds of power plants. The CCSI Toolset will provide end users in industry with a comprehensive, integrated suite of scientifically validated models with uncertainty quantification, optimization, risk analysis and decision making capabilities. The CCSI Toolset will incorporate commercial and open-source software currently in use by industry and will also develop new software tools as necessary to fill technology gaps identified during execution of the project. The CCSI Toolset will (1) enable promising concepts to be more quickly identified through rapid computational screening of devices and processes; (2) reduce the time to design and troubleshoot new devices and processes; (3) quantify the technical risk in taking technology from laboratory-scale to commercial-scale; and (4) stabilize deployment costs more quickly by replacing some of the physical operational tests with virtual power plant simulations. The goal of CCSI is to deliver a toolset that can simulate the scale-up of a broad set of new carbon capture technologies from laboratory scale to full commercial scale. To provide a framework around which the toolset can be developed and demonstrated, we will focus on three Industrial Challenge Problems (ICPs) related to carbon capture technologies relevant to U.S. pulverized coal (PC) power plants. Post combustion capture by solid sorbents is the technology focus of the initial ICP (referred to as ICP A). The goal of the uncertainty quantification (UQ) task (Task 6) is to provide a set of capabilities to the user community for the quantification of uncertainties associated with the carbon capture processes. As such, we will develop, as needed and beyond existing capabilities, a suite of robust and efficient computational tools for UQ to be integrated into a CCSI UQ software framework.

  18. Global Change Sustainability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tipple, Brett

    Global Change and Sustainability Center The GCSC is an inclusionary and interdisciplinary hub that promotes, coordinates, and conducts local to global environmental- and sustainability-related research to complex environmental and sustainability issues and challenges. 2012 Annual Report #12;1GCSC 2012 ANNUAL

  19. Nuclear energy density functionals: What we can learn about/from their global performance?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Afanasjev, A. V.; Agbemava, S. E.; Ray, D.; Ring, P.

    2014-10-15

    A short review of recent results on the global performance of covariant energy density functionals is presented. It is focused on an analysis of the accuracy of the description of physical observables of ground and excited states as well as to related theoretical uncertainties. In addition, a global analysis of pairing properties is presented and the impact of pairing on the position of two-neutron drip line is discussed.

  20. Agricultural and Resource Economics Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2011-01-01

    Europe. It is producing biodiesel from veg- etable oil, fromsuch as Jatropha, for biodiesel. Some industrial forestsfor the production of biodiesel. The econom- ics of algae as

  1. Quantum Limits of Measurements and Uncertainty Principle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Masanao Ozawa

    2015-05-19

    In this paper, we show how the Robertson uncertainty relation gives certain intrinsic quantum limits of measurements in the most general and rigorous mathematical treatment. A general lower bound for the product of the root-mean-square measurement errors arising in joint measurements of noncommuting observables is established. We give a rigorous condition for holding of the standard quantum limit (SQL) for repeated measurements, and prove that if a measuring instrument has no larger root-mean-square preparational error than the root-mean-square measurement errors then it obeys the SQL. As shown previously, we can even construct many linear models of position measurement which circumvent this condition for the SQL.

  2. Radiotherapy Dose Fractionation under Parameter Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davison, Matt; Kim, Daero; Keller, Harald

    2011-11-30

    In radiotherapy, radiation is directed to damage a tumor while avoiding surrounding healthy tissue. Tradeoffs ensue because dose cannot be exactly shaped to the tumor. It is particularly important to ensure that sensitive biological structures near the tumor are not damaged more than a certain amount. Biological tissue is known to have a nonlinear response to incident radiation. The linear quadratic dose response model, which requires the specification of two clinically and experimentally observed response coefficients, is commonly used to model this effect. This model yields an optimization problem giving two different types of optimal dose sequences (fractionation schedules). Which fractionation schedule is preferred depends on the response coefficients. These coefficients are uncertainly known and may differ from patient to patient. Because of this not only the expected outcomes but also the uncertainty around these outcomes are important, and it might not be prudent to select the strategy with the best expected outcome.

  3. Intrinsic Uncertainties in Modeling Complex Systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooper, Curtis S; Bramson, Aaron L.; Ames, Arlo L.

    2014-09-01

    Models are built to understand and predict the behaviors of both natural and artificial systems. Because it is always necessary to abstract away aspects of any non-trivial system being modeled, we know models can potentially leave out important, even critical elements. This reality of the modeling enterprise forces us to consider the prospective impacts of those effects completely left out of a model - either intentionally or unconsidered. Insensitivity to new structure is an indication of diminishing returns. In this work, we represent a hypothetical unknown effect on a validated model as a finite perturba- tion whose amplitude is constrained within a control region. We find robustly that without further constraints, no meaningful bounds can be placed on the amplitude of a perturbation outside of the control region. Thus, forecasting into unsampled regions is a very risky proposition. We also present inherent difficulties with proper time discretization of models and representing in- herently discrete quantities. We point out potentially worrisome uncertainties, arising from math- ematical formulation alone, which modelers can inadvertently introduce into models of complex systems. Acknowledgements This work has been funded under early-career LDRD project %23170979, entitled %22Quantify- ing Confidence in Complex Systems Models Having Structural Uncertainties%22, which ran from 04/2013 to 09/2014. We wish to express our gratitude to the many researchers at Sandia who con- tributed ideas to this work, as well as feedback on the manuscript. In particular, we would like to mention George Barr, Alexander Outkin, Walt Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, and Laura Swiler for provid- ing invaluable advice and guidance through the course of the project. We would also like to thank Steven Kleban, Amanda Gonzales, Trevor Manzanares, and Sarah Burwell for their assistance in managing project tasks and resources.

  4. Global Warming and Caspian Sea Level Fluctuations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ardakanian, Reza

    2013-01-01

    Coastal regions have a high social, economical and environmental importance. Due to this importance the sea level fluctuations can have many bad consequences. In this research the correlation between the increasing trend of temperature in coastal stations due to Global Warming and the Caspian Sea level has been established. The Caspian Sea level data has been received from the Jason-1 satellite. It was resulted that the monthly correlation between the temperature and sea level is high and also positive and almost the same for all the stations. But the yearly correlation was negative. It means that the sea level has decreased by the increase in temperature.

  5. Planning Wireless Networks with Demand Uncertainty using Robust ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2011-03-04

    as OFDMA. Current methods for this task require a static model of the problem. However, uncertainty of data arises frequently in wireless networks, e. g., fluctuat-

  6. Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Siddiqui, Afzal

    2008-01-01

    tax on microgrid combined heat and power adoption. JournalDG) and combined heat and power (CHP) applications via heatUncertainty Keywords: Combined heat and power applications,

  7. Estimation of uncertainty for contour method residual stress measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Olson, Mitchell D.; DeWald, Adrian T.; Prime, Michael B.; Hill, Michael R.

    2014-12-03

    This paper describes a methodology for the estimation of measurement uncertainty for the contour method, where the contour method is an experimental technique for measuring a two-dimensional map of residual stress over a plane. Random error sources including the error arising from noise in displacement measurements and the smoothing of the displacement surfaces are accounted for in the uncertainty analysis. The output is a two-dimensional, spatially varying uncertainty estimate such that every point on the cross-section where residual stress is determined has a corresponding uncertainty value. Both numerical and physical experiments are reported, which are used to support the usefulness of the proposed uncertainty estimator. The uncertainty estimator shows the contour method to have larger uncertainty near the perimeter of the measurement plane. For the experiments, which were performed on a quenched aluminum bar with a cross section of 51 × 76 mm, the estimated uncertainty was approximately 5 MPa (?/E = 7 · 10??) over the majority of the cross-section, with localized areas of higher uncertainty, up to 10 MPa (?/E = 14 · 10??).

  8. Estimation of uncertainty for contour method residual stress measurements

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Olson, Mitchell D.; DeWald, Adrian T.; Prime, Michael B.; Hill, Michael R.

    2014-12-03

    This paper describes a methodology for the estimation of measurement uncertainty for the contour method, where the contour method is an experimental technique for measuring a two-dimensional map of residual stress over a plane. Random error sources including the error arising from noise in displacement measurements and the smoothing of the displacement surfaces are accounted for in the uncertainty analysis. The output is a two-dimensional, spatially varying uncertainty estimate such that every point on the cross-section where residual stress is determined has a corresponding uncertainty value. Both numerical and physical experiments are reported, which are used to support the usefulnessmore »of the proposed uncertainty estimator. The uncertainty estimator shows the contour method to have larger uncertainty near the perimeter of the measurement plane. For the experiments, which were performed on a quenched aluminum bar with a cross section of 51 × 76 mm, the estimated uncertainty was approximately 5 MPa (?/E = 7 · 10??) over the majority of the cross-section, with localized areas of higher uncertainty, up to 10 MPa (?/E = 14 · 10??).« less

  9. Model simplification of chemical kinetic systems under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coles, Thomas Michael Kyte

    2011-01-01

    This thesis investigates the impact of uncertainty on the reduction and simplification of chemical kinetics mechanisms. Chemical kinetics simulations of complex fuels are very computationally expensive, especially when ...

  10. Decision making under epistemic uncertainty : an application to seismic design

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Agarwal, Anna

    2008-01-01

    The problem of accounting for epistemic uncertainty in risk management decisions is conceptually straightforward, but is riddled with practical difficulties. Simple approximations are often used whereby future variations ...

  11. Addressing Uncertainty in Desigh Inputs: A Case Study of Probabilisti...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Addressing Uncertainties in Design Inputs: A Case Study of Probabilistic Settlement Evaluations for Soft Zone Collapse at SWPF Tom Houston, Greg Mertz, Carl Costantino, Michael...

  12. Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wells, C.

    1992-10-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment's final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

  13. Uncertainty quantification in fission cross section measurements at LANSCE

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Tovesson, F.

    2015-01-09

    Neutron-induced fission cross sections have been measured for several isotopes of uranium and plutonium at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) over a wide range of incident neutron energies. The total uncertainties in these measurements are in the range 3–5% above 100 keV of incident neutron energy, which results from uncertainties in the target, neutron source, and detector system. The individual sources of uncertainties are assumed to be uncorrelated, however correlation in the cross section across neutron energy bins are considered. The quantification of the uncertainty contributions will be described here.

  14. Modeling Correlations In Prompt Neutron Fission Spectra Uncertainties...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modeling Correlations In Prompt Neutron Fission Spectra Uncertainties Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling Correlations In Prompt Neutron Fission Spectra...

  15. Optimization Online - The impact of wind uncertainty on the strategic ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pedro Crespo Del Granado

    2015-01-14

    Jan 14, 2015 ... Abstract: The intermittent nature of wind energy generation has introduced a new degree of uncertainty to the tactical planning of energy ...

  16. Uncertainty quantification in fission cross section measurements at LANSCE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tovesson, F. [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Neutron-induced fission cross sections have been measured for several isotopes of uranium and plutonium at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) over a wide range of incident neutron energies. The total uncertainties in these measurements are in the range 3–5% above 100 keV of incident neutron energy, which results from uncertainties in the target, neutron source, and detector system. The individual sources of uncertainties are assumed to be uncorrelated, however correlation in the cross section across neutron energy bins are considered. The quantification of the uncertainty contributions will be described here.

  17. Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Talou, Patrick Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nazarewicz, Witold University of Tennessee, Knoxville,...

  18. The importance of covariance in nuclear data uncertainty propagation studies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Benstead, J. [AWE Plc, Aldermaston, Berkshire (United Kingdom)

    2012-07-01

    A study has been undertaken to investigate what proportion of the uncertainty propagated through plutonium critical assembly calculations is due to the covariances between the fission cross section in different neutron energy groups. The uncertainties on k{sub eff} calculated show that the presence of covariances between the cross section in different neutron energy groups accounts for approximately 27-37% of the propagated uncertainty due to the plutonium fission cross section. This study also confirmed the validity of employing the sandwich equation, with associated sensitivity and covariance data, instead of a Monte Carlo sampling approach to calculating uncertainties for linearly varying systems. (authors)

  19. Improvements to Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Technical Report: Improvements to Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Improvements to Nuclear Data and Its...

  20. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.