National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for global economic uncertainties

  1. Uncertainties in global aerosol simulations: Assessment using...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Uncertainties in global aerosol simulations: Assessment using three meteorological data sets Current global aerosol models use different physical and chemical schemes and 4 ...

  2. Malaria and global change: Insights, uncertainties and possible surprises

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martin, P.H.; Steel, A.

    1996-12-31

    Malaria may change with global change. Indeed, global change may affect malaria risk and malaria epidemiology. Malaria risk may change in response to a greenhouse warming; malaria epidemiology, in response to the social, economic, and political developments which a greenhouse warming may trigger. To date, malaria receptivity and epidemiology futures have been explored within the context of equilibrium studies. Equilibrium studies of climate change postulate an equilibrium present climate (the starting point) and a doubled-carbon dioxide climate (the end point), simulate conditions in both instances, and compare the two. What happens while climate changes, i.e., between the starting point and the end point, is ignored. The present paper focuses on malaria receptivity and addresses what equilibrium studies miss, namely transient malaria dynamics.

  3. Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Challenges in Talks with World Energy Ministers | Department of Energy Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate Challenges in Talks with World Energy Ministers Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate Challenges in Talks with World Energy Ministers March 13, 2009 - 12:00am Addthis Washington, DC - In recent discussions with a broad range of world energy ministers, U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu has stressed the need for global cooperation

  4. Economic Globalization and a Nuclear Renaissance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wood, Thomas W.; Johnson, Wayne L.; Parker, Brian M.

    2001-10-22

    The phenomenon of globalization has become increasingly well recognized, documented, and analyzed in the last several years. Globalization, the integration of markets and intra-firm competition on a worldwide basis, involves complex behavioral and mindset changes within a firm that facilitate global competition. The changes revolve around efficient information flow and rapid deployment of technology. The objective of this report is to examine the probable characteristics of a global nuclear renaissance and its broad implications for industry structure and export control relative to nuclear technology. The question of how a modern renaissance would affect the trend toward globalization of the nuclear industry is addressed.

  5. Global extreme events and their regional economic impact: 1996 update

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shen, S.

    1996-12-31

    The meaning of global warming and its relevance to everyday life is explained. Simple thermodynamics is used to predict an oscillatory nature of the change in climate due to global warming. The regional economic impacts of global extreme events are what mankind needs to focus on in government and private sector policy and planning. The economic impact of global warming has been tracked by the Extreme Event Index (EEI) established by the Global Warming International Center (GWIC). This review will update the overall trend and the components of the EEI from 1960 to 1996. The regional components of the global EEI have provided an excellent gauge for measuring the statistical vulnerability of any geographical locality in climate related economic disasters. The author further explains why we no longer fully understand the nature and magnitudes of common phenomena such as storms and wind speeds because of these extreme events, precipitation and temperature oscillations, atmospheric thermal unrest, as well as the further stratification of clouds, and changes in the absorptive properties of clouds. Hurricane strength winds are increasingly common even in continental areas. The author links the increase in duration of the El Nino to global warming, and further predicts a high public health risk as a result of the earth`s transition to another equilibrium state in its young history.

  6. Optimizing your options: Extracting the full economic value of transmission when planning under uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Munoz, Francisco D.; Watson, Jean -Paul; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

    2015-06-04

    In this study, the anticipated magnitude of needed investments in new transmission infrastructure in the U.S. requires that these be allocated in a way that maximizes the likelihood of achieving society's goals for power system operation. The use of state-of-the-art optimization tools can identify cost-effective investment alternatives, extract more benefits out of transmission expansion portfolios, and account for the huge economic, technology, and policy uncertainties that the power sector faces over the next several decades.

  7. Global economic prospects and the developing countries, 1995

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-12-01

    The report`s central message is that the increasing integration of developing countries into the global economy constitutes perhaps the most important opportunity for raising the welfare of both developing and industrial countries over the long term. But the process of integration will not be without frictions that give rise to protectionist pressures. And, as recent events in Mexico have shown, it will increase the complexity of economic management for developing country policymakers. Globalization comes with liberalization, deregulation, and more mobile and potentially volatile cross-border capital flows, which means that sound macroeconomic management commands an increasingly high premium. Penalties for policy errors rise. Globalization thus requires closer monitoring and quicker policy responses at the country, regional, and global levels.

  8. The economics of long-term global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-09-01

    This report is intended to provide an overview of economic issues and research relevant to possible, long-term global climate change. It is primarily a critical survey, not a statement of Administration or Department policy. This report should serve to indicate that economic analysis of global change is in its infancy few assertions about costs or benefits can be made with confidence. The state of the literature precludes any attempt to produce anything like a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis. Moreover, almost all the quantitative estimates regarding physical and economic effects in this report, as well as many of the qualitative assertions, are controversial. Section I provides background on greenhouse gas emissions and their likely climatic effects and on available policy instruments. Section II considers the costs of living with global change, assuming no substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Section III considers costs of reducing these emissions, though the available literature does not contain estimates of the costs of policies that would, on the assumptions of current climate models, prevent climate change altogether. The individual sections are not entirely compartmentalized, but can be read independently if necessary.

  9. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  10. Formulating Energy Policies Related to Fossil Fuel Use: Critical Uncertainties in the Global Carbon Cycle

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Post, W. M.; Dale, V. H.; DeAngelis, D. L.; Mann, L. K.; Mulholland, P. J.; O`Neill, R. V.; Peng, T. -H.; Farrell, M. P.

    1990-02-01

    The global carbon cycle is the dynamic interaction among the earth's carbon sources and sinks. Four reservoirs can be identified, including the atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere, oceans, and sediments. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is determined by characteristics of carbon fluxes among major reservoirs of the global carbon cycle. The objective of this paper is to document the knowns, and unknowns and uncertainties associated with key questions that if answered will increase the understanding of the portion of past, present, and future atmospheric CO{sub 2} attributable to fossil fuel burning. Documented atmospheric increases in CO{sub 2} levels are thought to result primarily from fossil fuel use and, perhaps, deforestation. However, the observed atmospheric CO{sub 2} increase is less than expected from current understanding of the global carbon cycle because of poorly understood interactions among the major carbon reservoirs.

  11. Accounting for Global Climate Model Projection Uncertainty in Modern Statistical Downscaling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johannesson, G

    2010-03-17

    Future climate change has emerged as a national and a global security threat. To carry out the needed adaptation and mitigation steps, a quantification of the expected level of climate change is needed, both at the global and the regional scale; in the end, the impact of climate change is felt at the local/regional level. An important part of such climate change assessment is uncertainty quantification. Decision and policy makers are not only interested in 'best guesses' of expected climate change, but rather probabilistic quantification (e.g., Rougier, 2007). For example, consider the following question: What is the probability that the average summer temperature will increase by at least 4 C in region R if global CO{sub 2} emission increases by P% from current levels by time T? It is a simple question, but one that remains very difficult to answer. It is answering these kind of questions that is the focus of this effort. The uncertainty associated with future climate change can be attributed to three major factors: (1) Uncertainty about future emission of green house gasses (GHG). (2) Given a future GHG emission scenario, what is its impact on the global climate? (3) Given a particular evolution of the global climate, what does it mean for a particular location/region? In what follows, we assume a particular GHG emission scenario has been selected. Given the GHG emission scenario, the current batch of the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is used to simulate future climate under this scenario, yielding an ensemble of future climate projections (which reflect, to some degree our uncertainty of being able to simulate future climate give a particular GHG scenario). Due to the coarse-resolution nature of the GCM projections, they need to be spatially downscaled for regional impact assessments. To downscale a given GCM projection, two methods have emerged: dynamical downscaling and statistical (empirical) downscaling (SDS). Dynamic downscaling involves

  12. Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO2 Geological Sequestration

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Trainor-Guitten, W. J.; Lu, C.; Mansoor, K.; Carroll, S. A.

    2012-12-20

    The risk of CO2 leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO2 geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO2 is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO2/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as a boundary condition. CO2 andmore » brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO2 plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking water quality. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most sensitive parameters to the risk profiles. The resulting uncertainty of pH- and TDS-defined aquifer volume, which is impacted by CO2 and brine leakage, mainly results from the uncertainty of fault permeability. Subsequently, high-resolution, reduced-order models of risk profiles are developed as functions of all the decision variables and uncertain parameters in all three subsystems.« less

  13. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and the Global Carbon Cycle: The Key Uncertainties

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Peng, T. H.; Post, W. M.; DeAngelis, D. L.; Dale, V. H.; Farrell, M. P.

    1987-12-01

    The biogeochemical cycling of carbon between its sources and sinks determines the rate of increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations. The observed increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} content is less than the estimated release from fossil fuel consumption and deforestation. This discrepancy can be explained by interactions between the atmosphere and other global carbon reservoirs such as the oceans, and the terrestrial biosphere including soils. Undoubtedly, the oceans have been the most important sinks for CO{sub 2} produced by man. But, the physical, chemical, and biological processes of oceans are complex and, therefore, credible estimates of CO{sub 2} uptake can probably only come from mathematical models. Unfortunately, one- and two-dimensional ocean models do not allow for enough CO{sub 2} uptake to accurately account for known releases. Thus, they produce higher concentrations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} than was historically the case. More complex three-dimensional models, while currently being developed, may make better use of existing tracer data than do one- and two-dimensional models and will also incorporate climate feedback effects to provide a more realistic view of ocean dynamics and CO{sub 2} fluxes. The instability of current models to estimate accurately oceanic uptake of CO{sub 2} creates one of the key uncertainties in predictions of atmospheric CO{sub 2} increases and climate responses over the next 100 to 200 years.

  14. A global perspective on energy markets and economic integration.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baker, Arnold Barry

    2006-04-01

    What will be the effect of Iraqi domestic instability on Iraqi oil production Negotiations for Iranian nuclear technology on Iranian oil supplies Saudi commitment to expanded oil production President Putin's policies on Russian oil and natural gas supplies President Chavez's policies on Venezuelan oil supplies Instability in Nigeria Higher oil prices on world economic growth Effect of economic growth on oil demand in China, India, U.S., etc. Higher oil prices on non-OPEC oil supplies

  15. nCTEQ15 - Global analysis of nuclear parton distributions with uncertainties in the CTEQ framework

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Kovarik, K.; Kusina, A.; Jezo, T.; Clark, D. B.; Keppel, C.; Lyonnet, F.; Morfin, J. G.; Olness, F. I.; Owens, J. F.; Schienbein, I.; et al

    2016-04-28

    We present the new nCTEQ15 set of nuclear parton distribution functions with uncertainties. This fit extends the CTEQ proton PDFs to include the nuclear dependence using data on nuclei all the way up to 208Pb. The uncertainties are determined using the Hessian method with an optimal rescaling of the eigenvectors to accurately represent the uncertainties for the chosen tolerance criteria. In addition to the Deep Inelastic Scattering (DIS) and Drell-Yan (DY) processes, we also include inclusive pion production data from RHIC to help constrain the nuclear gluon PDF. Here, we investigate the correlation of the data sets with specific nPDFmore » flavor components, and asses the impact of individual experiments. We also provide comparisons of the nCTEQ15 set with recent fits from other groups.« less

  16. Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO2 Geological Sequestration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Trainor-Guitten, W. J.; Lu, C.; Mansoor, K.; Carroll, S. A.

    2012-12-20

    The risk of CO2 leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO2 geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO2 is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO2/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as a boundary condition. CO2 and brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO2 plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking water quality. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most sensitive parameters to the risk profiles. The resulting uncertainty of pH- and TDS-defined aquifer volume, which is impacted by CO2 and brine leakage, mainly results from the uncertainty of fault permeability. Subsequently, high-resolution, reduced-order models of risk profiles are developed as functions of all the decision variables and uncertain parameters in all three subsystems.

  17. Techno-economic and uncertainty analysis of in situ and ex situ fast pyrolysis for biofuel production

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Boyan; Ou, Longwen; Dang, Qi; Meyer, Pimphan A.; Jones, Susanne B.; Brown, Robert C.; Wright, Mark

    2015-11-01

    This study evaluates the techno-economic uncertainty in cost estimates for two emerging biorefinery technologies for biofuel production: in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis. Stochastic simulations based on process and economic parameter distributions are applied to calculate biorefinery performance and production costs. The probability distributions for the minimum fuel-selling price (MFSP) indicate that in situ catalytic pyrolysis has an expected MFSP of $4.20 per gallon with a standard deviation of 1.15, while the ex situ catalytic pyrolysis has a similar MFSP with a smaller deviation ($4.27 per gallon and 0.79 respectively). These results suggest that a biorefinery based on ex situ catalytic pyrolysis could have a lower techno-economic risk than in situ pyrolysis despite a slightly higher MFSP cost estimate. Analysis of how each parameter affects the NPV indicates that internal rate of return, feedstock price, total project investment, electricity price, biochar yield and bio-oil yield are significant parameters which have substantial impact on the MFSP for both in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis.

  18. nCTEQ15 - Global analysis of nuclear parton distributions with uncertainties

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kusina, A.; Jezo, T.; Clark, D. B.; Keppel, Cynthia; Lyonnet, F.; Morfin, Jorge; Olness, F. I.; Owens, Jeff; Schienbein, I.

    2015-09-01

    We present the first official release of the nCTEQ nuclear parton distribution functions with errors. The main addition to the previous nCTEQ PDFs is the introduction of PDF uncertainties based on the Hessian method. Another important addition is the inclusion of pion production data from RHIC that give us a handle on constraining the gluon PDF. This contribution summarizes our results from arXiv:1509.00792 and concentrates on the comparison with other groups providing nuclear parton distributions.

  19. Global Economic Effects of USA Biofuel Policy and the Potential Contribution from Advanced Biofuels

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gbadebo Oladosu; Keith Kline; Paul Leiby; Rocio Uria-Martinez; Maggie Davis; Mark Downing; Laurence Eaton

    2012-01-01

    This study evaluates the global economic effects of the USA renewable fuel standards (RFS2), and the potential contribution from advanced biofuels. Our simulation results imply that these mandates lead to an increase of 0.21 percent in the global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022, including an increase of 0.8 percent in the USA and 0.02 percent in the rest of the world (ROW); relative to our baseline, no-RFS scenario. The incremental contributions to GDP from advanced biofuels in 2022 are estimated at 0.41 percent and 0.04 percent in the USA and ROW, respectively. Although production costs of advanced biofuels are higher than for conventional biofuels in our model, their economic benefits result from reductions in oil use, and their smaller impacts on food markets compared with conventional biofuels. Thus, the USA advanced biofuels targets are expected to have positive economic benefits.

  20. Review of economic and energy sector implications of adopting global climate change policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Novak, M.H.

    1997-12-31

    This paper summarizes a number of studies examining potential economic impacts of global climate change policies. Implications for the United States as a whole, the U.S. energy sector, the U.S. economy, businesses and consumers, and world economies are considered. Impact assessments are performed of U.S. carbon emissions, carbon taxes, and carbon restrictions by comparing estimates from various organizations. The following conclusions were made from the economic studies: (1) the economic cost of carbon abatement is expensive; (2) the cost of unilateral action is very expensive with little quantifiable evidence that global emissions are reduced; (3) multilateral actions of developed countries are also very expensive, but there is quantifiable evidence of global emissions reductions; and (4) global actions have only been theoretically addressed. Paralleling these findings, the energy analyses show that the U.S. is technologically unprepared to give up fossil fuels. As a result: (1) carbon is not stabilized without a high tax, (2) stabilization of carbon is elusive, (3) technology is the only long-term answer, and (4) targeted programs may be appropriate to force technology development. 8 tabs.

  1. Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schmitz, Christoph; van Meijl, Hans; Kyle, G. Page; Nelson, Gerald C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gurgel, Angelo; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; von Lampe, Martin; Wise, Marshall A.; Blanc, Elodie; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Valin, Hugo

    2014-01-01

    Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 1025% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.

  2. Reducing Transaction Costs for Energy Efficiency Investments and Analysis of Economic Risk Associated With Building Performance Uncertainties: Small Buildings and Small Portfolios Program

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Reducing Transaction Costs for Energy Efficiency Investments and Analysis of Economic Risk Associated With Building Performance Uncertainties Small Buildings and Small Portfolios Program Rois Langner, Bob Hendron, and Eric Bonnema Technical Report NREL/TP-5500-60976 August 2014 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National

  3. The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

  4. Why Do Global Long-term Scenarios for Agriculture Differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Cai, Yongxia; Calvin, Katherine V.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Nelson, Gerald; Sands, Ronald; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; van Meijl, Hans

    2013-12-02

    Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. Ten global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socio-economic, climate change and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Results suggest that, once general assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines, and that several common conclusions are possible. Nonetheless, differences in basic model parameters, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. This holds for both the common reference scenario and for the various shocks applied. We conclude that agro-economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross-fertilize analyses at different scales.

  5. Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Kyle, G. Page; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Havlik, Petr; van Meijl, Hans; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Popp, Alexander; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk; Wise, Marshall A.

    2014-01-01

    Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, e.g. from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an RCP2.6-type scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in an RCP8.5-type scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.

  6. Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hernandez, Jacquelynne; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Jennings, Barbara Joan; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Brown, Theresa Jean; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2010-09-01

    Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subset of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.

  7. Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-01-01

    While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.

  8. Assessing the state-level consequences of global warming: Socio-economic and energy demand impacts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rubin, B.M. Gailmard, S.; Marsh, D.; Septoff, A.

    1996-12-31

    The large body of research on climate change has begun to recognize a significant deficiency: the lack of analysis of the impact of climate change at a spatial level consistent with the anticipated occurrence of climate change. Climate change is likely to vary by region, while impact analysis has focused on much larger political units. Clearly, adaptation/mitigation strategies must be developed at a level consistent with political and policy-making processes. This paper specifically addresses this deficiency by identifying the potential socio-economic and energy demand consequences of climate change for subnational regions. This is accomplished via the development and application of a regional simultaneous equation, econometric simulation model that focuses on five states (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin) in the Great Lakes region of the US. This paper presents a process for obtaining state-specific assessments of the consequences of climate change for the socio-economic system. As such, it provides an indication of which economic sectors are most sensitive to climate change for a specific state (Indiana), a set of initial mitigation/adaptation strategies for this state, and the results of testing these strategies in the policy analysis framework enabled by the model. In addition, the research demonstrates an effective methodology for assessing impacts and policy implications of climate change at a level consistent with policy making authority.

  9. Modeling the Oil Transition: A Summary of the Proceedings of the DOE/EPA Workshop on the Economic and Environmental Implications of Global Energy Transitions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greene, David L

    2007-02-01

    The global energy system faces sweeping changes in the next few decades, with potentially critical implications for the global economy and the global environment. It is important that global institutions have the tools necessary to predict, analyze and plan for such massive change. This report summarizes the proceedings of an international workshop concerning methods of forecasting, analyzing, and planning for global energy transitions and their economic and environmental consequences. A specific case, it focused on the transition from conventional to unconventional oil and other energy sources likely to result from a peak in non-OPEC and/or global production of conventional oil. Leading energy models from around the world in government, academia and the private sector met, reviewed the state-of-the-art of global energy modeling and evaluated its ability to analyze and predict large-scale energy transitions.

  10. Global

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Permalink EC, DHS's S&T Directorate, Federal Emergency Management Agency: SUMMIT Analysis, Capabilities, Facilities, Global, Infrastructure Security, Modeling, Modeling & Analysis, NISAC, Partnership, Research & Capabilities EC, DHS's S&T Directorate, Federal Emergency Management Agency: SUMMIT Natural disasters create emergency situations that must be dealt with quickly and effectively in order to minimize injury and loss of life. Simulating such events before they occur can

  11. Uncertainty Analysis

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable ... Arctic Climate Measurements Global Climate Models Software Sustainable Subsurface ...

  12. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    The determination of climate policy is a decision under uncertainty. The uncertainty in future climate change impacts is large, as is the uncertainty in the costs of potential policies. Rational and economically efficient policy choices will therefore seek to balance the expected marginal costs with the expected marginal benefits. This approach requires that the risks of future climate change be assessed. The decision process need not be formal or quantitative for descriptions of the risks to be useful. Whatever the decision procedure, a useful starting point is to have as accurate a description of climate risks as possible. Given the goal of describing uncertainty in future climate change, we need to characterize the uncertainty in the main causes of uncertainty in climate impacts. One of the major drivers of uncertainty in future climate change is the uncertainty in future emissions, both of greenhouse gases and other radiatively important species such as sulfur dioxide. In turn, the drivers of uncertainty in emissions are uncertainties in the determinants of the rate of economic growth and in the technologies of production and how those technologies will change over time. This project uses historical experience and observations from a large number of countries to construct statistical descriptions of variability and correlation in labor productivity growth and in AEEI. The observed variability then provides a basis for constructing probability distributions for these drivers. The variance of uncertainty in growth rates can be further modified by expert judgment if it is believed that future variability will differ from the past. But often, expert judgment is more readily applied to projected median or expected paths through time. Analysis of past variance and covariance provides initial assumptions about future uncertainty for quantities that are less intuitive and difficult for experts to estimate, and these variances can be normalized and then applied to mean

  13. Life-cycle assessment of municipal solid waste management alternatives with consideration of uncertainty: SIWMS development and application

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    El Hanandeh, Ali; El-Zein, Abbas

    2010-05-15

    This paper describes the development and application of the Stochastic Integrated Waste Management Simulator (SIWMS) model. SIWMS provides a detailed view of the environmental impacts and associated costs of municipal solid waste (MSW) management alternatives under conditions of uncertainty. The model follows a life-cycle inventory approach extended with compensatory systems to provide more equitable bases for comparing different alternatives. Economic performance is measured by the net present value. The model is verified against four publicly available models under deterministic conditions and then used to study the impact of uncertainty on Sydney's MSW management 'best practices'. Uncertainty has a significant effect on all impact categories. The greatest effect is observed in the global warming category where a reversal of impact direction is predicted. The reliability of the system is most sensitive to uncertainties in the waste processing and disposal. The results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty at all stages to better understand the behaviour of the MSW system.

  14. World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ): Global Activity Module

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2016-01-01

    The World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) is a comprehensive, mid?term energy forecasting and policy analysis tool used by EIA. WEPS projects energy supply, demand, and prices by country or region, given assumptions about the state of various economies, international energy markets, and energy policies. The Global Activity Module (GLAM) provides projections of economic driver variables for use by the supply, demand, and conversion modules of WEPS . GLAM’s baseline economic projection contains the economic assumptions used in WEPS to help determine energy demand and supply. GLAM can also provide WEPS with alternative economic assumptions representing a range of uncertainty about economic growth. The resulting economic impacts of such assumptions are inputs to the remaining supply and demand modules of WEPS .

  15. (Managing the global environment)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rayner, S.F.

    1989-10-03

    The conference was stimulated by concern that policy makers increasingly have to make environmental management decisions in the absence of solidly established scientific consensus about ecological processes and the consequences of human actions. Often, as in the case of climate change, some decisions may have to be made in the absence of information that is desirable but may not be available for years to come, if ever. Six topics were identified as running throughout the Congress. These were: the epistemology and history of the sciences or disciplines concerned with the environment, including the scientific basis of rationality and modes of dealing with uncertainty and complexity; the social, economic, and institutional conditions for the production of knowledge bearing on the environment, including the politics of research and the improvement of scientific data; the structuring and institutionalization of expert assessments on national and international levels, including the global distribution of expertise; the means of establishing scientific information, the role of the media in transmitting and processing knowledge about the environment, and the organization of public environmental debate; and decision making and management under conditions of uncertainty; and, finally the relationship between science and ethics. 13 refs.

  16. ECONOMIC IMPACT

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ECONOMIC IMPACT 2015 SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES National Security Sandia's primary mission is ensuring the U.S. nuclear arsenal is safe, secure, and reliable, and can fully support our nation's deterrence policy. NUCLEAR WEAPONS DEFENSE SYSTEMS & ASSESSMENTS We provide technical solutions for global security by engineering and integrating advanced science and technology to help defend and protect the United States. Jill Hruby President and Laboratories Director "Qualified, diverse

  17. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Summary Notes from 15 November 2007 Generic Technical Issue Discussion on Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis and Model Support

  18. Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Mccomiskey, Allison

    2008-01-15

    Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

  19. Assessing Climate Uncertainty

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Climate Uncertainty The uncertainty in climate change and in its impacts is of great concern to the international community. While the ever-growing body of scientific evidence substantiates present climate change, the driving concern about this issue lies in the consequences it poses to humanity. Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have quantified all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. Sandia scientists

  20. Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth; Preston, Dean L.

    2015-03-19

    This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.

  1. Engine Combustion Network (ECN): Global sensitivity analysis...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    10 Date Published June 2015 Keywords diesel, Engine Combustion Network, global sensitivity ... The uncertainty in the fuel temperature was found to have a profound influence on the ...

  2. Wanted: Global Clean Energy Partners | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Super contributor 24 February, 2010 - 13:51 imported OpenEI Global climate change. Global sustainability. Global economic development. There's no doubt about it-if the...

  3. Photovoltaic System Modeling. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hansen, Clifford W.; Martin, Curtis E.

    2015-08-01

    We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling AC energy from ph otovoltaic systems . Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. We quantify u ncertainty i n the output of each model using empirical distribution s of each model's residuals. We propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models by sampli ng these distributions to obtain a n empirical distribution of a PV system's output. We consider models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane - of - array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power ; (5) reduce DC power for losses due to inefficient maximum power point tracking or mismatch among modules; and (6) convert DC to AC power . O ur analysis consider s a notional PV system com prising an array of FirstSolar FS - 387 modules and a 250 kW AC inverter ; we use measured irradiance and weather at Albuquerque, NM. We found the uncertainty in PV syste m output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. We found that unce rtainty in the models for POA irradiance and effective irradiance to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty in predicted daily energy. Our analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output predictions may yield the greatest improvements by focusing on the POA and effective irradiance models.

  4. Measurement uncertainty relations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Busch, Paul; Lahti, Pekka; Werner, Reinhard F.

    2014-04-15

    Measurement uncertainty relations are quantitative bounds on the errors in an approximate joint measurement of two observables. They can be seen as a generalization of the error/disturbance tradeoff first discussed heuristically by Heisenberg. Here we prove such relations for the case of two canonically conjugate observables like position and momentum, and establish a close connection with the more familiar preparation uncertainty relations constraining the sharpness of the distributions of the two observables in the same state. Both sets of relations are generalized to means of order ? rather than the usual quadratic means, and we show that the optimal constants are the same for preparation and for measurement uncertainty. The constants are determined numerically and compared with some bounds in the literature. In both cases, the near-saturation of the inequalities entails that the state (resp. observable) is uniformly close to a minimizing one.

  5. Calibration Under Uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Swiler, Laura Painton; Trucano, Timothy Guy

    2005-03-01

    This report is a white paper summarizing the literature and different approaches to the problem of calibrating computer model parameters in the face of model uncertainty. Model calibration is often formulated as finding the parameters that minimize the squared difference between the model-computed data (the predicted data) and the actual experimental data. This approach does not allow for explicit treatment of uncertainty or error in the model itself: the model is considered the %22true%22 deterministic representation of reality. While this approach does have utility, it is far from an accurate mathematical treatment of the true model calibration problem in which both the computed data and experimental data have error bars. This year, we examined methods to perform calibration accounting for the error in both the computer model and the data, as well as improving our understanding of its meaning for model predictability. We call this approach Calibration under Uncertainty (CUU). This talk presents our current thinking on CUU. We outline some current approaches in the literature, and discuss the Bayesian approach to CUU in detail.

  6. Global warming, global research, and global governing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Preining, O.

    1997-12-31

    The anticipated dangers of Global Warming can be mitigated by reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, especially CO{sub 2}. To reach acceptable, constant levels within the next couple of centuries it might be necessary to accept stabilization levels higher than present ones, The annual CO{sub 2} emissions must be reduced far below today`s values. This is a very important result of the models discussed in the 1995 IPCC report. However, any even very modest scenario for the future must take into account a substantial increase in the world population which might double during the 21st century, There is a considerable emission reduction potential of the industrialized world due to efficiency increase, However, the demand for energy services by the growing world population will, inspite of the availability of alternative energy resources, possibly lead to a net increase in fossil fuel consumption. If the climate models are right, and the science community believes they are, we will experience a global warming of the order of a couple of degrees over the next century; we have to live with it. To be prepared for the future it is essential for us to use new research techniques embracing not only the familiar fields of hard sciences but also social, educational, ethical and economic aspects, We must find a way to build up the essential intellectual capacities needed to deal with these kinds of general problems within all nations and all societies. But this is not Although, we also have to find the necessary dynamical and highly flexible structures for a global governing using tools such as the environmental regime. The first step was the Framework Convention On Climate Change, UN 1992; for resolution of questions regarding implementations the Conference of the Parties was established.

  7. Entropic uncertainty relations and entanglement

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Guehne, Otfried; Lewenstein, Maciej

    2004-08-01

    We discuss the relationship between entropic uncertainty relations and entanglement. We present two methods for deriving separability criteria in terms of entropic uncertainty relations. In particular, we show how any entropic uncertainty relation on one part of the system results in a separability condition on the composite system. We investigate the resulting criteria using the Tsallis entropy for two and three qubits.

  8. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    April 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 April 6, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $81 per barrel in March 2010, almost $5 per barrel above the prior month's average and $3 per barrel higher than forecast in last month's Outlook. Oil prices rose from a low this year of $71.15 per barrel on February 5 to $80 per barrel by the end of February, generally on news of robust economic and energy demand growth in non-OECD

  9. Microsoft PowerPoint - GlobalOilEcon.ppt

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Globalization, Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Activity Stephen Brown Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2008 Energy Conference U.S. Energy Information Administration Globalization, Oil ...

  10. Global Timber Market and Forestry Data Project | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    data has been used in analysis should visit the Forests, Economics and Global Climate Change website." References "Global Timber Market and Forestry Data Project" Retrieved...

  11. Optimization of Complex Energy System Under Uncertainty | Argonne

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Leadership Computing Facility On the left: This shows the Illinois power grid system overlaid on fields portraying electricity prices under a deterministic economic dispatch scenario. Dark blue areas have the lowest prices while red and yellow have the highest. Argonne National Laboratory researchers use a model of the Illinois grid to test algorithms for making power dispatch decisions under uncertainty. On the right: This shows electricity prices in Illinois under a stochastic economic

  12. Extended Forward Sensitivity Analysis for Uncertainty Quantification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haihua Zhao; Vincent A. Mousseau

    2011-09-01

    Verification and validation (V&V) are playing more important roles to quantify uncertainties and realize high fidelity simulations in engineering system analyses, such as transients happened in a complex nuclear reactor system. Traditional V&V in the reactor system analysis focused more on the validation part or did not differentiate verification and validation. The traditional approach to uncertainty quantification is based on a 'black box' approach. The simulation tool is treated as an unknown signal generator, a distribution of inputs according to assumed probability density functions is sent in and the distribution of the outputs is measured and correlated back to the original input distribution. The 'black box' method mixes numerical errors with all other uncertainties. It is also not efficient to perform sensitivity analysis. Contrary to the 'black box' method, a more efficient sensitivity approach can take advantage of intimate knowledge of the simulation code. In these types of approaches equations for the propagation of uncertainty are constructed and the sensitivities are directly solved for as variables in the simulation. This paper presents the forward sensitivity analysis as a method to help uncertainty qualification. By including time step and potentially spatial step as special sensitivity parameters, the forward sensitivity method is extended as one method to quantify numerical errors. Note that by integrating local truncation errors over the whole system through the forward sensitivity analysis process, the generated time step and spatial step sensitivity information reflect global numerical errors. The discretization errors can be systematically compared against uncertainties due to other physical parameters. This extension makes the forward sensitivity method a much more powerful tool to help uncertainty qualification. By knowing the relative sensitivity of time and space steps with other interested physical parameters, the simulation is allowed

  13. Uncertainty quantification and multiscale mathematics. (Conference...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Uncertainty quantification and multiscale mathematics. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty quantification and multiscale mathematics. No abstract prepared. ...

  14. Joseph Salvo | Inventors | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Salvo A global perspective colors Joe's approach to life and work. He appreciates the Internet of Things. And Chinese language and culture. The economics of innovation. And...

  15. Enerwise Global Technologies Inc | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    to identify, quantify, and capitalize on economic opportunities related to the procurement and use of energy. References: Enerwise Global Technologies Inc1 This article is...

  16. LCOE Uncertainty Analysis for Hydropower using Monte Carlo Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chalise, Dol Raj; O'Connor, Patrick W; DeNeale, Scott T; Uria Martinez, Rocio; Kao, Shih-Chieh

    2015-01-01

    Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is an important metric to evaluate the cost and performance of electricity production generation alternatives, and combined with other measures, can be used to assess the economics of future hydropower development. Multiple assumptions on input parameters are required to calculate the LCOE, which each contain some level of uncertainty, in turn affecting the accuracy of LCOE results. This paper explores these uncertainties, their sources, and ultimately the level of variability they introduce at the screening level of project evaluation for non-powered dams (NPDs) across the U.S. Owing to site-specific differences in site design, the LCOE for hydropower varies significantly from project to project unlike technologies with more standardized configurations such as wind and gas. Therefore, to assess the impact of LCOE input uncertainty on the economics of U.S. hydropower resources, these uncertainties must be modeled across the population of potential opportunities. To demonstrate the impact of uncertainty, resource data from a recent nationwide non-powered dam (NPD) resource assessment (Hadjerioua et al., 2012) and screening-level predictive cost equations (O Connor et al., 2015) are used to quantify and evaluate uncertainties in project capital and operations & maintenance costs, and generation potential at broad scale. LCOE dependence on financial assumptions is also evaluated on a sensitivity basis to explore ownership/investment implications on project economics for the U.S. hydropower fleet. The results indicate that the LCOE for U.S. NPDs varies substantially. The LCOE estimates for the potential NPD projects of capacity greater than 1 MW range from 40 to 182 $/MWh, with average of 106 $/MWh. 4,000 MW could be developed through projects with individual LCOE values below 100 $/MWh. The results also indicate that typically 90 % of LCOE uncertainty can be attributed to uncertainties in capital costs and energy production; however

  17. Economic Development

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Economic Development Economic Development Los Alamos is committed to investing and partnering in economic development initiatives and programs that have a positive impact to stimulate business growth that creates jobs and strengthens communities in Northern New Mexico. September 20, 2013 R&M Construction from Santa Clara Pueblo is a 2015 Native American Venture Acceleration Fund recipient. R&M Construction from Santa Clara Pueblo is a 2015 Native American Venture Acceleration Fund

  18. Economic Performance

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    in Environmental, Energy, and Economic Performance ... of greenhouse gas emissions a priority for Federal agencies, it is hereby ordered as follows: Section 1. Policy. ...

  19. ECONOMIC DISPATCH

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... Load forecasting As noted in the Department's November 2005 Economic Dispatch Report, improving the quality and accuracy of load forecasting would improve the reliability and cost-...

  20. A Comprehensive View of Global Potential for Hydro-generated Electricity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Yuyu; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Smith, Steven J.; Edmonds, James A.; Li, Hongyi; Clarke, Leon E.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2015-09-01

    In this study, we assess global hydropower potential using runoff and stream flow data, along with turbine technology performance, cost assumptions, and environmental considerations. The results provide the first comprehensive quantification of global hydropower potential including gross, technical, economic, and exploitable estimates. Total global potential of gross, technical, economic, and exploitable hydropower are estimated to be approximately 128, 39, 32, and 27 petawatt hours per year, respectively. The economic and exploitable potential of hydropower are calculated at less than 9 cents/kWh. We find that hydropower has the potential to supply a significant portion of the world energy needs, although this potential varies substantially by region. Globally, hydropower can potentially supply about 1.5 times the total electricity demand in 2005. Estimated hydropower resources in a number of countries are sufficient to accommodate their demand for electricity in 2005, e.g., Brazil (5.6 times), Russia (4.6 times), and Canada (3.5 times). A sensitivity analysis indicates that hydropower estimates are not highly sensitive to five key parameters: design flow (varying by -2% to +1% at less than 9 cents/kWh), cost and financing options (by -7% to +6%), turbine efficiency (by -10% to +10%), stream flow (by -10% to +10%), and fixed charge rate (by -6% to 5%). This sensitivity analysis emphasizes the reliable role of hydropower for future energy systems, when compared to other renewable energy resources with larger uncertainty in their future potentials.

  1. Benefits to the United States of Increasing Global Uptake of Clean Energy Technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kline, D.

    2010-07-01

    A previous report describes an opportunity for the United States to take leadership in efforts to transform the global energy system toward clean energy technologies (CET). An accompanying analysis to that report provides estimates of the economic benefits to the United States of such a global transformation on the order of several hundred billion dollars per year by 2050. This report describes the methods and assumptions used in developing those benefit estimates. It begins with a summary of the results of the analysis based on an updated and refined model completed since the publication of the previous report. The framework described can be used to estimate the economic benefits to the U.S. of coordinated global action to increase the uptake of CETs worldwide. Together with a Monte Carlo simulation engine, the framework can be used to develop plausible ranges for benefits, taking into account the large uncertainty in the driving variables and economic parameters. The resulting estimates illustrate that larger global clean energy markets offer significant opportunities to the United States economy.

  2. How incorporating more data reduces uncertainty in recovery predictions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Campozana, F.P.; Lake, L.W.; Sepehrnoori, K.

    1997-08-01

    From the discovery to the abandonment of a petroleum reservoir, there are many decisions that involve economic risks because of uncertainty in the production forecast. This uncertainty may be quantified by performing stochastic reservoir modeling (SRM); however, it is not practical to apply SRM every time the model is updated to account for new data. This paper suggests a novel procedure to estimate reservoir uncertainty (and its reduction) as a function of the amount and type of data used in the reservoir modeling. Two types of data are analyzed: conditioning data and well-test data. However, the same procedure can be applied to any other data type. Three performance parameters are suggested to quantify uncertainty. SRM is performed for the following typical stages: discovery, primary production, secondary production, and infill drilling. From those results, a set of curves is generated that can be used to estimate (1) the uncertainty for any other situation and (2) the uncertainty reduction caused by the introduction of new wells (with and without well-test data) into the description.

  3. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for photovoltaic system modeling.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hansen, Clifford W.; Pohl, Andrew Phillip; Jordan, Dirk

    2013-12-01

    We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling DC energy from photovoltaic systems. We consider two systems, each comprised of a single module using either crystalline silicon or CdTe cells, and located either at Albuquerque, NM, or Golden, CO. Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. Uncertainty in the output of each model is quantified by empirical distributions of each model's residuals. We sample these distributions to propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models to obtain an empirical distribution for each PV system's output. We considered models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane-of-array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance from plane-of-array irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; and (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power. We found that the uncertainty in PV system output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. Four alternative models were considered for the POA irradiance modeling step; we did not find the choice of one of these models to be of great significance. However, we observed that the POA irradiance model introduced a bias of upwards of 5% of daily energy which translates directly to a systematic difference in predicted energy. Sensitivity analyses relate uncertainty in the PV system output to uncertainty arising from each model. We found that the residuals arising from the POA irradiance and the effective irradiance models to be the dominant contributors to residuals for daily energy, for either technology or location considered. This analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output should focus on improvements to the POA and effective irradiance models.

  4. UNFINISHED BUSINESS: The Economics of The Kyoto Protocol

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    JA Edmonds; CN MacCracken; RD Sands; SH Kim

    2000-07-06

    The Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) was completed on the morning of December 11, 1997, following over two years of negotiations. The product of these deliberations is a complex and incomplete document knitting together the diversity of interests and perspectives represented by the more than 150 delegations. Because the document is complex, its implications are not immediately obvious. If it enters into force, the Kyoto Protocol will have far-reaching implications for all nations--both nations with obligations under the Protocol and those without obligations. National energy systems, and the world's energy system, could be forever changed. In this paper the authors develop an assessment of the energy and economic implications of achieving the goals of the Kyoto Protocol. They find that many of the details of the Protocol that remain to be worked out introduce critical uncertainties affecting the cost of compliance. There are also a variety of uncertainties that further complicate the analysis. These include future non-CO{sub 2} greenhouse gas emissions and the cost of their mitigation. Other uncertainties include the resolution of negotiations to establish rules for determining and allocating land-use emissions rights, mechanisms for Annex 1 trading, and participation by non-Annex 1 members in the Clean Development Mechanism. In addition, there are economic uncertainties, such as the behavior of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union in supplying emissions credits under Annex 1 trading. These uncertainties in turn could affect private sector investments in anticipation of the Protocol's entrance into force. The longer the nature of future obligations remains unclear, the less able decision makers will be to incorporate these rules into their investment decisions. They find that the cost of implementing the Protocol in the US can vary by more than an order of magnitude. The marginal cost could be as low as $26 per tonne of

  5. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, Jerry; Ruane, Alex; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, Peter; Rotter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, AJ; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, Robert; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Mueller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.O.; Olesen, JE; Osborne, T.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.

    2013-09-01

    Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments1,2. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change has been increasingly described in the literature3,4 while assessments of the uncertainty in crop responses to climate change are very rare. Systematic and objective comparisons across impact studies is difficult, and thus has not been fully realized5. Here we present the largest coordinated and standardized crop model intercomparison for climate change impacts on wheat production to date. We found that several individual crop models are able to reproduce measured grain yields under current diverse environments, particularly if sufficient details are provided to execute them. However, simulated climate change impacts can vary across models due to differences in model structures and algorithms. The crop-model component of uncertainty in climate change impact assessments was considerably larger than the climate-model component from Global Climate Models (GCMs). Model responses to high temperatures and temperature-by-CO2 interactions are identified as major sources of simulated impact uncertainties. Significant reductions in impact uncertainties through model improvements in these areas and improved quantification of uncertainty through multi-model ensembles are urgently needed for a more reliable translation of climate change scenarios into agricultural impacts in order to develop adaptation strategies and aid policymaking.

  6. Economics | NISAC

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Posted by Admin on Mar 1, 2012 in | Comments 0 comments NISAC Agent-Based Laboratory for Economics (N-ABLE(tm)) NISAC has developed N-ABLE(tm) to assist federal decision makers in ...

  7. Economic Impact

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Economic Impact on New Mexico Delivering the best possible science and technology results for the nation while making a positive impact on our New Mexico communities and economy July 1, 2016 Contacts Community Partnerships Kathy Keith (505) 665-4400 Email Economic Development Vangie Trujillo (505) 665-4284 Email Market Transition Program Micheline Devaurs (505) 665-9090 Email Small Business Program Chris Fresquez (505) 667-4419 Email Positive impact on New Mexico's economy, communities Through

  8. Reducing Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About Light-Duty Diesel Reducing Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About Light-Duty Diesel 2002 DEER Conference ...

  9. Uncertainty Analysis Technique for OMEGA Dante Measurements ...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Uncertainty Analysis Technique for OMEGA Dante Measurements Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Analysis Technique for OMEGA Dante Measurements You are...

  10. Report: Technical Uncertainty and Risk Reduction

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    TECHNICAL UNCERTAINTY AND RISK REDUCTION Background In FY 2007 EMAB was tasked to assess EM's ability to reduce risk and technical uncertainty. Board members explored this topic ...

  11. RUMINATIONS ON NDA MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY COMPARED TO DA UNCERTAINTY

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

    2010-06-17

    It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

  12. Global climate feedbacks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Manowitz, B.

    1990-10-01

    The important physical, chemical, and biological events that affect global climate change occur on a mesoscale -- requiring high spatial resolution for their analysis. The Department of Energy has formulated two major initiatives under the US Global Change Program: ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurements), and CHAMMP (Computer Hardware Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics). ARM is designed to use ground and air-craft based observations to document profiles of atmospheric composition, clouds, and radiative fluxes. With research and models of important physical processes, ARM will delineate the relationships between trace gases, aerosol and cloud structure, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, and will improve the parameterization of global circulation models. The present GCMs do not model important feedbacks, including those from clouds, oceans, and land processes. The purpose of this workshop is to identify such potential feedbacks, to evaluate the uncertainties in the feedback processes (and, if possible, to parameterize the feedback processes so that they can be treated in a GCM), and to recommend research programs that will reduce the uncertainties in important feedback processes. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases.

  13. Statistics, Uncertainty, and Transmitted Variation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wendelberger, Joanne Roth

    2014-11-05

    The field of Statistics provides methods for modeling and understanding data and making decisions in the presence of uncertainty. When examining response functions, variation present in the input variables will be transmitted via the response function to the output variables. This phenomenon can potentially have significant impacts on the uncertainty associated with results from subsequent analysis. This presentation will examine the concept of transmitted variation, its impact on designed experiments, and a method for identifying and estimating sources of transmitted variation in certain settings.

  14. PROBABILISTIC SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS WORKSHOP SUMMARY REPORT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seitz, R

    2008-06-25

    Stochastic or probabilistic modeling approaches are being applied more frequently in the United States and globally to quantify uncertainty and enhance understanding of model response in performance assessments for disposal of radioactive waste. This increased use has resulted in global interest in sharing results of research and applied studies that have been completed to date. This technical report reflects the results of a workshop that was held to share results of research and applied work related to performance assessments conducted at United States Department of Energy sites. Key findings of this research and applied work are discussed and recommendations for future activities are provided.

  15. Economic impact

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Technology Transfer Department

    2001-06-01

    In federal fiscal year 2000 (FY00), Berkeley Lab had 4,347 full- and part-time employees. In addition, at any given time of the year, there were more than 1,000 Laboratory guests. These guests, who also reside locally, have an important economic impact on the nine-county Bay Area. However, Berkeley Lab's total economic impact transcends the direct effects of payroll and purchasing. The direct dollars paid to the Lab's employees in the form of wages, salaries, and benefits, and payments made to contractors for goods and services, are respent by employees and contractors again and again in the local and greater economy. Further, while Berkeley Lab has a strong reputation for basic scientific research, many of the Lab's scientific discoveries and inventions have had direct application in industry, spawning new businesses and creating new opportunities for existing firms. This analysis updates the Economic Impact Analysis done in 1996, and its purpose is to describe the economic and geographic impact of Laboratory expenditures and to provide a qualitative understanding of how Berkeley Lab impacts and supports the local community. It is intended as a guide for state, local, and national policy makers as well as local community members. Unless otherwise noted, this analysis uses data from FY00, the most recent year for which full data are available.

  16. Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Status Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harrison, Thomas J.

    2014-10-01

    This report describes the data collection work performed for an advanced small modular reactor (AdvSMR) economics analysis activity at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The methodology development and analytical results are described in separate, stand-alone documents as listed in the references. The economics analysis effort for the AdvSMR program combines the technical and fuel cycle aspects of advanced (non-light water reactor [LWR]) reactors with the market and production aspects of SMRs. This requires the collection, analysis, and synthesis of multiple unrelated and potentially high-uncertainty data sets from a wide range of data sources. Further, the nature of both economic and nuclear technology analysis requires at least a minor attempt at prediction and prognostication, and the far-term horizon for deployment of advanced nuclear systems introduces more uncertainty. Energy market uncertainty, especially the electricity market, is the result of the integration of commodity prices, demand fluctuation, and generation competition, as easily seen in deregulated markets. Depending on current or projected values for any of these factors, the economic attractiveness of any power plant construction project can change yearly or quarterly. For long-lead construction projects such as nuclear power plants, this uncertainty generates an implied and inherent risk for potential nuclear power plant owners and operators. The uncertainty in nuclear reactor and fuel cycle costs is in some respects better understood and quantified than the energy market uncertainty. The LWR-based fuel cycle has a long commercial history to use as its basis for cost estimation, and the current activities in LWR construction provide a reliable baseline for estimates for similar efforts. However, for advanced systems, the estimates and their associated uncertainties are based on forward-looking assumptions for performance after the system has been built and has achieved commercial operation

  17. Experimental uncertainty estimation and statistics for data having interval uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Oberkampf, William Louis; Ginzburg, Lev; Ferson, Scott; Hajagos, Janos

    2007-05-01

    This report addresses the characterization of measurements that include epistemic uncertainties in the form of intervals. It reviews the application of basic descriptive statistics to data sets which contain intervals rather than exclusively point estimates. It describes algorithms to compute various means, the median and other percentiles, variance, interquartile range, moments, confidence limits, and other important statistics and summarizes the computability of these statistics as a function of sample size and characteristics of the intervals in the data (degree of overlap, size and regularity of widths, etc.). It also reviews the prospects for analyzing such data sets with the methods of inferential statistics such as outlier detection and regressions. The report explores the tradeoff between measurement precision and sample size in statistical results that are sensitive to both. It also argues that an approach based on interval statistics could be a reasonable alternative to current standard methods for evaluating, expressing and propagating measurement uncertainties.

  18. Fuel economizer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zwierzelewski, V.F.

    1984-06-26

    A fuel economizer device for use with an internal combustion engine fitted with a carburetor is disclosed. The fuel economizer includes a plate member which is mounted between the carburetor and the intake portion of the intake manifold. The plate member further has at least one aperture formed therein. One tube is inserted through the at least one aperture in the plate member. The one tube extends longitudinally in the passage of the intake manifold from the intake portion toward the exit portion thereof. The one tube concentrates the mixture of fuel and air from the carburetor and conveys the mixture of fuel and air to a point adjacent but spaced away from the inlet port of the internal combustion engine.

  19. Global Solutions

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Global Solutions Our Vision National User Facilities Research Areas In Focus Global Solutions ⇒ Navigate Section Our Vision National User Facilities Research Areas In Focus Global Solutions A-Z Index Berkeley Lab masthead U.S. Department of Energy logo Phone Book Jobs Search BANGLADESH INDIA CHINA DAYA BAY CHINA RUSSIA SIBERIA JAPAN SAMOA HAWAII SOUTH POLE ANTARCTICA NEW MEXICO SOUTH DAKOTA TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO NEW YORK PUERTO RICO AMAZON RAIN FOREST CANARY ISLANDS SWITZERLAND ETHIOPIA

  20. Ecological economizer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peterson, E.M.

    1992-06-16

    This patent describes an engine economizer system adapted to supply an internal combustion engine with a heated air and water vapor mixture. It comprises a containment vessel, the vessel having: water level control means, an engine coolant fluid circuit, an engine lubricant circuit, an elongated air passage, air disbursement means, a water reservoir, air filter means, a vacuum aspiration port, and engine induction means associated with one of the carburetor and intake manifold and adapted to draw in the heated air and water vapor mixture by means of a hose connection to the aspiration port.

  1. ARM - PI Product - Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsDirect Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement

  2. Uncertainty quantification and multiscale mathematics. (Conference...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    quantification and multiscale mathematics. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty quantification and multiscale mathematics. Authors: Trucano, Timothy Guy ...

  3. Joint Global Change Research Institute | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    solutions. Joint Institute staff bring decades of experience and expertise to bear in science, technology, economics, and policy. "The Joint Global Change Research Institute...

  4. Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2013-04-13

    This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

  5. Charges versus taxes under uncertainty: A look from investment theory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kohlhaas, M.

    1996-12-31

    The search for more cost-efficient economic instruments for environmental protection has been conducted with different priorities in the USA and most European countries. Whereas in Europe there seems to prevail a preference for charges and taxes, in the USA tradeable permits are preferred. Environmental policy has to take into consideration the trade-off between price uncertainty and ecological effectiveness. In the short run and on a national level, ecological effectiveness is less important, and price uncertainty is smaller with environmental taxes. In the long run and in an international framework, environmental constraints and repercussions on world market prices of energy become more important. Since taxes are politically more accepted in Europe, it would make sense to start with an ecological tax reform, which can be transformed or integrated into a system of internationally tradeable permits gradually.

  6. Global crop yield losses from recent warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lobell, D; Field, C

    2006-06-02

    Global yields of the world-s six most widely grown crops--wheat, rice, maize, soybeans, barley, sorghum--have increased since 1961. Year-to-year variations in growing season minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation explain 30% or more of the variations in yield. Since 1991, climate trends have significantly decreased yield trends in all crops but rice, leading to foregone production since 1981 of about 12 million tons per year of wheat or maize, representing an annual economic loss of $1.2 to $1.7 billion. At the global scale, negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields are already apparent. Annual global temperatures have increased by {approx}0.4 C since 1980, with even larger changes observed in several regions (1). While many studies have considered the impacts of future climate changes on food production (2-5), the effects of these past changes on agriculture remain unclear. It is likely that warming has improved yields in some areas, reduced them in others, and had negligible impacts in still others; the relative balance of these effects at the global scale is unknown. An understanding of this balance would help to anticipate impacts of future climate changes, as well as to more accurately assess recent (and thereby project future) technologically driven yield progress. Separating the contribution of climate from concurrent changes in other factors--such as crop cultivars, management practices, soil quality, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) levels--requires models that describe the response of yields to climate. Studies of future global impacts of climate change have typically relied on a bottom-up approach, whereby field scale, process-based models are applied to hundreds of representative sites and then averaged (e.g., ref 2). Such approaches require input data on soil and management conditions, which are often difficult to obtain. Limitations on data quality or quantity can thus limit the utility of this approach

  7. Economic and policy implications of pandemic influenza.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Braeton J.; Starks, Shirley J.; Loose, Verne W.; Brown, Theresa Jean; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-03-01

    Pandemic influenza has become a serious global health concern; in response, governments around the world have allocated increasing funds to containment of public health threats from this disease. Pandemic influenza is also recognized to have serious economic implications, causing illness and absence that reduces worker productivity and economic output and, through mortality, robs nations of their most valuable assets - human resources. This paper reports two studies that investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic flu outbreak. Policy makers can use the growing number of economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. Experts recognize that pandemic influenza has serious global economic implications. The illness causes absenteeism, reduced worker productivity, and therefore reduced economic output. This, combined with the associated mortality rate, robs nations of valuable human resources. Policy makers can use economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. In this paper economists examine two studies which investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak. Resulting policy implications are also discussed. The research uses the Regional Economic Modeling, Inc. (REMI) Policy Insight + Model. This model provides a dynamic, regional, North America Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry-structured framework for forecasting. It is supported by a population dynamics model that is well-adapted to investigating macro-economic implications of pandemic influenza, including possible demand side effects. The studies reported in this paper exercise all of these capabilities.

  8. Global Energy: Supply, Demand, Consequences, Opportunities

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Majumdar, Arun

    2010-01-08

    July 29, 2008 Berkeley Lab lecture: Arun Majumdar, Director of the Environmental Energy Technologies Division, discusses current and future projections of economic growth, population, and global energy demand and supply, and explores the implications of these trends for the environment.

  9. Global Energy Futures Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2004-01-01

    The Global Energy Futures Model (GEFM) is a demand-based, gross domestic product (GDP)-driven, dynamic simulation tool that provides an integrated framework to model key aspects of energy, nuclear-materials storage and disposition, environmental effluents from fossil and non fossil energy and global nuclear-materials management. Based entirely on public source data, it links oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and renewable energy dynamically to greenhouse-gas emissions and 13 other measures of environmental impact. It includes historical data frommore » 1990 to 2000, is benchmarked to the DOE/EIA/IEO 2002 [5] Reference Case for 2000 to 2020, and extrapolates energy demand through the year 2050. The GEFM is globally integrated, and breaks out five regions of the world: United States of America (USA), the Peoples Republic of China (China), the former Soviet Union (FSU), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations excluding the USA (other industrialized countries), and the rest of the world (ROW) (essentially the developing world). The GEFM allows the user to examine a very wide range of what ir scenarios through 2050 and to view the potential effects across widely dispersed, but interrelated areas. The authors believe that this high-level learning tool will help to stimulate public policy debate on energy, environment, economic and national security issues.« less

  10. A global warning for global warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Paepe, R.

    1996-12-31

    The problem of global warming is a complex one not only because it is affecting desert areas such as the Sahel leading to famine disasters of poor rural societies, but because it is an even greater threat to modern well established industrial societies. Global warming is a complex problem of geographical, economical and societal factors together which definitely are biased by local environmental parameters. There is an absolute need to increase the knowledge of such parameters, especially to understand their limits of variance. The greenhouse effect is a global mechanism which means that in changing conditions at one point of the Earth, it will affect all other regions of the globe. Industrial pollution and devastation of the forest are quoted as similar polluting anthropogenic activities in far apart regions of the world with totally different societies and industrial compounds. The other important factor is climatic cyclicity which means that droughts are bound to natural cycles. These natural cycles are numerous as is reflected in the study of geo-proxydata from several sequential geological series on land, ice and deepsea. Each of these cycles reveals a drought cycle which occasionally interfere at the same time. It is believed that the present drought might well be a point of interference between the natural cycles of 2,500 and 1,000 years and the man induced cycle of the last century`s warming up. If the latter is the only cycle involved, man will be able to remediate. If not, global warming will become even more disastrous beyond the 21st century.

  11. PDF uncertainties at large x and gauge boson production

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Accardi, Alberto

    2012-10-01

    I discuss how global QCD fits of parton distribution functions can make the somewhat separated fields of high-energy particle physics and lower energy hadronic and nuclear physics interact to the benefit of both. In particular, I will argue that large rapidity gauge boson production at the Tevatron and the LHC has the highest short-term potential to constrain the theoretical nuclear corrections to DIS data on deuteron targets necessary for up/down flavor separation. This in turn can considerably reduce the PDF uncertainty on cross section calculations of heavy mass particles such as W' and Z' bosons.

  12. Global decarbonization strategies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Messner, S.

    1996-12-31

    The presentation covers a brief summary of the research activities of the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies Project (ECS) at IIASA. The overall research focuses on long-term global energy development and emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). The ultimate goal is to analyze strategies that achieve decarbonization of global energy systems during the next century. The specific activities range from mitigation of GHG emissions to an integrated assessment of climate change. One focal point is the GHG mitigation technology inventory CO{sub 2}DB, which presently covers approximately 1,400 technologies related to energy and the greenhouse effect. Another integral part is the development of global energy and emissions scenarios, an effort involving a number of formal models to assess the implications. A large number of global scenarios for the next century has been developed, that could be grouped into three families. All of them include energy efficiency improvements and some degree of decarbonization in the world. They are based on different economic and technological development trajectories, and their emissions range from very high to a stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions. The presentation will outline the salient characteristics of the three scenario families and provide some regional implications of these alternative futures.

  13. Capturing the uncertainty in adversary attack simulations.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Darby, John L.; Brooks, Traci N.; Berry, Robert Bruce

    2008-09-01

    This work provides a comprehensive uncertainty technique to evaluate uncertainty, resulting in a more realistic evaluation of PI, thereby requiring fewer resources to address scenarios and allowing resources to be used across more scenarios. For a given set of dversary resources, two types of uncertainty are associated with PI for a scenario: (1) aleatory (random) uncertainty for detection probabilities and time delays and (2) epistemic (state of knowledge) uncertainty for the adversary resources applied during an attack. Adversary esources consist of attributes (such as equipment and training) and knowledge about the security system; to date, most evaluations have assumed an adversary with very high resources, adding to the conservatism in the evaluation of PI. The aleatory uncertainty in PI is ddressed by assigning probability distributions to detection probabilities and time delays. A numerical sampling technique is used to evaluate PI, addressing the repeated variable dependence in the equation for PI.

  14. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  15. Whitepaper on Uncertainty Quantification for MPACT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Williams, Mark L.

    2015-12-17

    The MPACT code provides the ability to perform high-fidelity deterministic calculations to obtain a wide variety of detailed results for very complex reactor core models. However MPACT currently does not have the capability to propagate the effects of input data uncertainties to provide uncertainties in the calculated results. This white paper discusses a potential method for MPACT uncertainty quantification (UQ) based on stochastic sampling.

  16. Uncertainty quantification for discrimination of nuclear events...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    comprehensive nuclear-test-ban treaty Title: Uncertainty quantification for discrimination of nuclear events as violations of the comprehensive nuclear-test-ban treaty Authors: ...

  17. Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling - Discovering...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    in Climate Modeling - Discovering Sparsity and Building Surrogates. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling - Discovering ...

  18. Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty (Dataset) | Data Explorer

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties. less Authors: Mccomiskey, Allison Publication Date: 2008-01-15 OSTI Identifier: 1169526 DOE Contract ...

  19. Validation and Uncertainty Characterization for Energy Simulation

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Validation and Uncertainty Characterization for Energy Simulation (1530) Philip Haves (LBNL) Co-PI's: Ron Judkoff (NREL), Joshua New (ORNL), Ralph Muehleisen (ANL) BTO Merit ...

  20. From Deterministic Inversion to Uncertainty Quantification: Planning...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Glen's Flow Law exponent) Main sources of uncertainty: Problem definition Goal: ... Common y Proposed U: computed depth averaged velocity H: ice thickness basal sliding ...

  1. From Deterministic Inversion to Uncertainty Quantification: Planning...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Planning a Long Journey in Ice Sheet Modeling. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: From Deterministic Inversion to Uncertainty Quantification: Planning a Long Journey in ...

  2. Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Nuclear Density...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    theoretical tools used to study the properties of heavy and ... of model uncertainties and Bayesian inference methods. ... Country of Publication: United States Language: English ...

  3. Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory and Information Content of New Measurements Citation Details In-Document Search This content will become publicly...

  4. Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data using a Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) Method

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Habte, Aron

    2015-06-25

    This presentation summarizes uncertainty estimation of radiometric data using the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty (GUM) method.

  5. Linking the uncertainty of low frequency variability in tropical forcing in regional climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Forest, Chris E.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Li, Wei

    2015-02-20

    The project utilizes multiple atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to examine the regional climate sensitivity to tropical sea surface temperature forcing through a series of ensemble experiments. The overall goal for this work is to use the global teleconnection operator (GTO) as a metric to assess the impact of model structural differences on the uncertainties in regional climate variability.

  6. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Shell

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1999-04-20

    SUNS (Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Shell) is a 32-bit application that runs under Windows 95/98 and Windows NT. It is designed to aid in statistical analyses for a broad range of applications. The class of problems for which SUNS is suitable is generally defined by two requirements: 1. A computer code is developed or acquired that models some processes for which input is uncertain and the user is interested in statistical analysis of the outputmore » of that code. 2. The statistical analysis of interest can be accomplished using the Monte Carlo analysis. The implementation then requires that the user identify which input to the process model is to be manipulated for statistical analysis. With this information, the changes required to loosely couple SUNS with the process model can be completed. SUNS is then used to generate the required statistical sample and the user-supplied process model analyses the sample. The SUNS post processor displays statistical results from any existing file that contains sampled input and output values.« less

  7. Estimating the uncertainty in underresolved nonlinear dynamics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chorin, Alelxandre; Hald, Ole

    2013-06-12

    The Mori-Zwanzig formalism of statistical mechanics is used to estimate the uncertainty caused by underresolution in the solution of a nonlinear dynamical system. A general approach is outlined and applied to a simple example. The noise term that describes the uncertainty turns out to be neither Markovian nor Gaussian. It is argued that this is the general situation.

  8. Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jordan, D.; Kurtz, S.; Hansen, C.

    2014-04-01

    Dependable and predictable energy production is the key to the long-term success of the PV industry. PV systems show over the lifetime of their exposure a gradual decline that depends on many different factors such as module technology, module type, mounting configuration, climate etc. When degradation rates are determined from continuous data the statistical uncertainty is easily calculated from the regression coefficients. However, total uncertainty that includes measurement uncertainty and instrumentation drift is far more difficult to determine. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was chosen to investigate a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The most important effect for degradation rates is to avoid instrumentation that changes over time in the field. For instance, a drifting irradiance sensor, which can be achieved through regular calibration, can lead to a substantially erroneous degradation rates. However, the accuracy of the irradiance sensor has negligible impact on degradation rate uncertainty emphasizing that precision (relative accuracy) is more important than absolute accuracy.

  9. What is the value of scientific knowledge? An application to global warminig using the PRICE model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nordhaus, W.D.; Popp, D.

    1997-02-01

    The question that this study addresses is: What is the value of the new knowledge about climate change? If natural and social scientists succeed in improving their understanding, what will be the payoff in terms of improved economic performance? For example, if the uncertainties are resolved in favor of those who argue that global warming will be minimal or beneficial, then this knowledge will allow countries to avoid expensive investments in non-carbon energy technologies or in expensive conservation efforts. On the other hand, if the worst fears prove correct, then the globe can mend its ways early so as to prevent later dislocations, famines, or inundations. To the extent that the investments are expensive or the consequences are grave, early information can be extremely valuable. 15 refs., 8 figs.

  10. Global Arrays

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2006-02-23

    The Global Arrays (GA) toolkit provides an efficient and portable “shared-memory” programming interface for distributed-memory computers. Each process in a MIMD parallel program can asynchronously access logical blocks of physically distributed dense multi-dimensional arrays, without need for explicit cooperation by other processes. Unlike other shared-memory environments, the GA model exposes to the programmer the non-uniform memory access (NUMA) characteristics of the high performance computers and acknowledges that access to a remote portion of the sharedmore » data is slower than to the local portion. The locality information for the shared data is available, and a direct access to the local portions of shared data is provided. Global Arrays have been designed to complement rather than substitute for the message-passing programming model. The programmer is free to use both the shared-memory and message-passing paradigms in the same program, and to take advantage of existing message-passing software libraries. Global Arrays are compatible with the Message Passing Interface (MPI).« less

  11. Are we seeing global warming?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hasselmann, K.

    1997-05-09

    Despite considerable progress, the question of whether the observed gradual increase in global mean temperature over the last century is indeed caused by human activities or is simply an expression of natural climate variation on a larger spatial and temporal scales remains a controversial issue. To answer this question three things are needed: prediction of the anthropogenic climate change signal; determination of the natural climate variability noise; and computation of the signal-to-noise ratio and test of whether the ratio exceeds some predefined statistical detection threshold. This article discusses all these issues and the uncertainties involved in getting definitive answers. 12 refs., 1 fig.

  12. After Globalization Future Security in a Technology Rich World

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gilmartin,T J

    2001-08-17

    Over the course of the year 2000, five workshops were conducted by the Center for Global Security Research at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on threats to international security in the 2015 to 2020 timeframe due to the global availability of advanced technology. These workshops focused on threats that are enabled by nuclear, missile, and space technology; military technology; information technology; bio technology; and geo systems technology. The participants included US national leaders and experts from the Department of Energy National Laboratories; the Department of Defense: Army, Navy, Air Force, Office of the Secretary of Defense, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; the Department of State, NASA, Congressional technical staff, the intelligence community, universities and university study centers, think tanks, consultants on security issues, and private industry. For each workshop the process of analysis involved identification and prioritization of the participants' perceived most severe threat scenarios (worst nightmares), discussion of the technologies which enabled those threats, and ranking of the technologies' threat potentials. The threats ranged from local/regional to global, from intentional to unintended to natural, from merely economic to massively destructive, and from individual and group to state actions. We were not concerned in this exercise with defining responses to the threats, although our assessment of each threat's severity included consideration of the ease or difficulty with which it might be executed or countered. At the concluding review, we brought the various workshops' participants together, added senior participant/reviewers with broad experience and national responsibility, and discussed the workshop findings to determine what is most certain or uncertain, and what might be needed to resolve our uncertainties. This paper summarizes the consenses and important variations of

  13. Numerical uncertainty in computational engineering and physics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hemez, Francois M

    2009-01-01

    Obtaining a solution that approximates ordinary or partial differential equations on a computational mesh or grid does not necessarily mean that the solution is accurate or even 'correct'. Unfortunately assessing the quality of discrete solutions by questioning the role played by spatial and temporal discretizations generally comes as a distant third to test-analysis comparison and model calibration. This publication is contributed to raise awareness of the fact that discrete solutions introduce numerical uncertainty. This uncertainty may, in some cases, overwhelm in complexity and magnitude other sources of uncertainty that include experimental variability, parametric uncertainty and modeling assumptions. The concepts of consistency, convergence and truncation error are overviewed to explain the articulation between the exact solution of continuous equations, the solution of modified equations and discrete solutions computed by a code. The current state-of-the-practice of code and solution verification activities is discussed. An example in the discipline of hydro-dynamics illustrates the significant effect that meshing can have on the quality of code predictions. A simple method is proposed to derive bounds of solution uncertainty in cases where the exact solution of the continuous equations, or its modified equations, is unknown. It is argued that numerical uncertainty originating from mesh discretization should always be quantified and accounted for in the overall uncertainty 'budget' that supports decision-making for applications in computational physics and engineering.

  14. A High-Performance Embedded Hybrid Methodology for Uncertainty Quantification With Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iaccarino, Gianluca

    2014-04-01

    Multiphysics processes modeled by a system of unsteady di erential equations are natu- rally suited for partitioned (modular) solution strategies. We consider such a model where probabilistic uncertainties are present in each module of the system and represented as a set of random input parameters. A straightforward approach in quantifying uncertainties in the predicted solution would be to sample all the input parameters into a single set, and treat the full system as a black-box. Although this method is easily parallelizable and requires minimal modi cations to deterministic solver, it is blind to the modular structure of the underlying multiphysical model. On the other hand, using spectral representations polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) can provide richer structural information regarding the dynamics of these uncertainties as they propagate from the inputs to the predicted output, but can be prohibitively expensive to implement in the high-dimensional global space of un- certain parameters. Therefore, we investigated hybrid methodologies wherein each module has the exibility of using sampling or PCE based methods of capturing local uncertainties while maintaining accuracy in the global uncertainty analysis. For the latter case, we use a conditional PCE model which mitigates the curse of dimension associated with intru- sive Galerkin or semi-intrusive Pseudospectral methods. After formalizing the theoretical framework, we demonstrate our proposed method using a numerical viscous ow simulation and benchmark the performance against a solely Monte-Carlo method and solely spectral method.

  15. A computational framework for uncertainty quantification and stochastic optimization in unit commitment with wind power generation.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2011-02-01

    We present a computational framework for integrating a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) model in stochastic unit commitment/economic dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the NWP model with an ensemble-based uncertainty quantification strategy implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework and validate the model using real wind-speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  16. The Role of Uncertainty Quantification for Reactor Physics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Salvatores, Massimo; Palmiotti, Giuseppe; Aliberti, G.

    2015-01-01

    The quantification of uncertainties is a crucial step in design. The comparison of a-priori uncertainties with the target accuracies, allows to define needs and priorities for uncertainty reduction. In view of their impact, the uncertainty analysis requires a reliability assessment of the uncertainty data used. The choice of the appropriate approach and the consistency of different approaches are discussed.

  17. An uncertainty principle for unimodular quantum groups

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crann, Jason; Kalantar, Mehrdad E-mail: mkalanta@math.carleton.ca

    2014-08-15

    We present a generalization of Hirschman's entropic uncertainty principle for locally compact Abelian groups to unimodular locally compact quantum groups. As a corollary, we strengthen a well-known uncertainty principle for compact groups, and generalize the relation to compact quantum groups of Kac type. We also establish the complementarity of finite-dimensional quantum group algebras. In the non-unimodular setting, we obtain an uncertainty relation for arbitrary locally compact groups using the relative entropy with respect to the Haar weight as the measure of uncertainty. We also show that when restricted to q-traces of discrete quantum groups, the relative entropy with respect to the Haar weight reduces to the canonical entropy of the random walk generated by the state.

  18. Reducing Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Light-Duty Diesel | Department of Energy Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About Light-Duty Diesel Reducing Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About Light-Duty Diesel 2002 DEER Conference Presentation: Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies 2002_deer_phillips.pdf (62.04 KB) More Documents & Publications Diesel Use in California Future Potential of Hybrid and Diesel Powertrains in the U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Market Dumping Dirty Diesels:

  19. Cost Analysis: Technology, Competitiveness, Market Uncertainty | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Technology to Market » Cost Analysis: Technology, Competitiveness, Market Uncertainty Cost Analysis: Technology, Competitiveness, Market Uncertainty As a basis for strategic planning, competitiveness analysis, funding metrics and targets, SunShot supports analysis teams at national laboratories to assess technology costs, location-specific competitive advantages, policy impacts on system financing, and to perform detailed levelized cost of energy (LCOE) analyses. This shows the

  20. Global Carbon Budget 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Canadell, J. G.; Sitch, S.; Korsbakken, J. I.; Friedlingstein, P.; Peters, G. P.; Andres, R. J.; Boden, T. A.; Houghton, R. A.; House, J. I.; Keeling, R. F.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Barbero, L.; Bopp, L.; Chang, J.; Chevallier, F.; Chini, L. P.; Ciais, P.; Fader, M.; Gkritzalis, T.; Harris, I.; Hauck, J.; Ilyina, T.; Jain, A. K.; Kato, E.; Kitidis, V.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Landschützer, P.; Lauvset, S. K.; Lefèvre, N.; Lenton, A.; Lima, I. D.; Metzl, N.; Millero, F.; Munro, D. R.; Murata, A.; Nabel, J. E. M. S.; Nakaoka, S.; Nojiri, Y.; O'Brien, K.; Olsen, A.; Ono, T.; Pérez, F. F.; Pfeil, B.; Pierrot, D.; Poulter, B.; Rehder, G.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Schuster, U.; Schwinger, J.; Séférian, R.; Steinhoff, T.; Stocker, B. D.; Sutton, A. J.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; van Heuven, S.; Vandemark, D.; Viovy, N.; Wiltshire, A.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.

    2015-12-07

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We also discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. Moreover, the mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three

  1. Global Carbon Budget 2015

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Canadell, J. G.; Sitch, S.; Korsbakken, J. I.; Friedlingstein, P.; Peters, G. P.; Andres, R. J.; Boden, T. A.; et al

    2015-12-07

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We also discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology andmore » data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. Moreover, the mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each

  2. Global carbon budget 2014

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Peters, G. P.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Jones, S. D.; Sitch, S.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; et al

    2015-05-08

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissionsmore » from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ;, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates

  3. Global carbon budget 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Peters, G. P.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Jones, S. D.; Sitch, S.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Boden, T. A.; Bopp, L.; Bozec, Y.; Canadell, J. G.; Chini, L. P.; Chevallier, F.; Cosca, C. E.; Harris, I.; Hoppema, M.; Houghton, R. A.; House, J. I.; Jain, A. K.; Johannessen, T.; Kato, E.; Keeling, R. F.; Kitidis, V.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Koven, C.; Landa, C. S.; Landschützer, P.; Lenton, A.; Lima, I. D.; Marland, G.; Mathis, J. T.; Metzl, N.; Nojiri, Y.; Olsen, A.; Ono, T.; Peng, S.; Peters, W.; Pfeil, B.; Poulter, B.; Raupach, M. R.; Regnier, P.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Salisbury, J. E.; Schuster, U.; Schwinger, J.; Séférian, R.; Segschneider, J.; Steinhoff, T.; Stocker, B. D.; Sutton, A. J.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; van der Werf, G. R.; Viovy, N.; Wang, Y.-P.; Wanninkhof, R.; Wiltshire, A.; Zeng, N.

    2015-05-08

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from

  4. Economic Impact | Jefferson Lab

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Economic Impact Jefferson Lab generates many economic benefits. For the nation, Jefferson Lab generates $679.1 million in economic output and 4,422 jobs. The economic output and related jobs represent the potential loss of gross output and employment that would be felt by the country if the lab suddenly were to vanish. For the Commonwealth of Virginia, Jefferson Lab generates $271.1 million in economic output and 2,200 jobs. For the Hampton Roads area, the lab creates an economic benefit in the

  5. Technology Transfer: Triggering New Global Markets and Job Growth |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Transfer: Triggering New Global Markets and Job Growth Technology Transfer: Triggering New Global Markets and Job Growth September 20, 2011 - 11:33am Addthis The Global Positioning System (GPS) was initially a government technology developed to guide nuclear missiles, and is one of the many examples of the economic potential of successful technology transfer -- the now worldwide location technologies market is projected to grow to $75 billion by 2013. The Global

  6. Addressing Uncertainties in Design Inputs: A Case Study of Probabilist...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Addressing Uncertainties in Design Inputs: A Case Study of Probabilistic Settlement Evaluations for Soft Zone Collapse at SWPF Addressing Uncertainties in Design Inputs: A Case ...

  7. Computational Fluid Dynamics & Large-Scale Uncertainty Quantification...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... (CFD) simulations and uncertainty analyses. The project developed new mathematical uncertainty quantification techniques and applied them, in combination with high-fidelity CFD ...

  8. Analysis of the Uncertainty in Wind Measurements from the Atmospheric...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Analysis of the Uncertainty in Wind Measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation ... Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Analysis of the Uncertainty in Wind ...

  9. Gradient-Enhanced Universal Kriging for Uncertainty Propagation...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Gradient-Enhanced Universal Kriging for Uncertainty Propagation Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Gradient-Enhanced Universal Kriging for Uncertainty Propagation Authors: ...

  10. Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by ...

  11. Early solar mass loss, opacity uncertainties, and the solar abundance...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Early solar mass loss, opacity uncertainties, and the solar abundance problem Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Early solar mass loss, opacity uncertainties, and the solar ...

  12. Analysis and Reduction of Chemical Models under Uncertainty ...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Analysis and Reduction of Chemical Models under Uncertainty Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Analysis and Reduction of Chemical Models under Uncertainty Abstract not ...

  13. ENHANCED UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR SRS COMPOSITE ANALYSIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, F.; Phifer, M.

    2011-06-30

    The Composite Analysis (CA) performed for the Savannah River Site (SRS) in 2009 (SRS CA 2009) included a simplified uncertainty analysis. The uncertainty analysis in the CA (Smith et al. 2009b) was limited to considering at most five sources in a separate uncertainty calculation performed for each POA. To perform the uncertainty calculations in a reasonable amount of time, the analysis was limited to using 400 realizations, 2,000 years of simulated transport time, and the time steps used for the uncertainty analysis were increased from what was used in the CA base case analysis. As part of the CA maintenance plan, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) committed to improving the CA uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. The previous uncertainty analysis was constrained by the standard GoldSim licensing which limits the user to running at most four Monte Carlo uncertainty calculations (also called realizations) simultaneously. Some of the limitations on the number of realizations that could be practically run and the simulation time steps were removed by building a cluster of three HP Proliant windows servers with a total of 36 64-bit processors and by licensing the GoldSim DP-Plus distributed processing software. This allowed running as many as 35 realizations simultaneously (one processor is reserved as a master process that controls running the realizations). These enhancements to SRNL computing capabilities made uncertainty analysis: using 1000 realizations, using the time steps employed in the base case CA calculations, with more sources, and simulating radionuclide transport for 10,000 years feasible. In addition, an importance screening analysis was performed to identify the class of stochastic variables that have the most significant impact on model uncertainty. This analysis ran the uncertainty model separately testing the response to variations in the following five sets of model parameters: (a) K{sub d} values (72 parameters for the 36 CA elements in

  14. Global warming, insurance losses and financial industry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Low, N.C.

    1996-12-31

    Global warming causes extremely bad weather in the near term. They have already caught the attention of the insurance industry, as they suffered massive losses in the last decade. Twenty-one out of the 25 largest catastrophes in the US, mainly in the form of hurricanes have occurred in the last decade. The insurance industry has reacted by taking the risk of global warming in decisions as to pricing and underwriting decisions. But they have yet to take a more active role in regulating the factors that contributes to global warming. How global warming can impact the financial industry and the modern economy is explored. Insurance and modern financial derivatives are key to the efficient functioning of the modern economy, without which the global economy can still function but will take a giant step backward. Any risk as global warming that causes economic surprises will hamper the efficient working of the financial market and the modern economy.

  15. Long-term energy generation planning under uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Escudero, L.F.; Paradinas, I.; Salmeron, J.; Sanchez, M.

    1998-07-01

    In this work the authors deal with the hydro-thermal coordination problem under uncertainty in generators availability, fuel costs, exogenous water inflow and energy demand. The objective is to minimize the system operating cost. The decision variables are the fuel procurement for each thermal generation site, the energy generated by each thermal and hydro-generator and the release and spilled water from reservoirs. Control variables are the stored water in reservoirs and the stored fuel in thermal plants at the end of each time period. The main contribution on the proposed topic focus in the simultaneous inclusion of the hydro-network and the thermal generation related constraints, as well as the stochastic aspect of the aforementioned parameters. The authors report their computational experience on real problems drawn from the Spanish hydro-thermal generation system. A case tested includes 85 generators (42 thermal plants with a global 27084MW capacity) and 57 reservoirs.

  16. Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Model Development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harrison, Thomas J.

    2014-10-01

    The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) research and development activities focus on four key areas: Developing assessment methods for evaluating advanced SMR technologies and characteristics; and Developing and testing of materials, fuels and fabrication techniques; and Resolving key regulatory issues identified by US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and industry; and Developing advanced instrumentation and controls and human-machine interfaces. This report focuses on development of assessment methods to evaluate advanced SMR technologies and characteristics. Specifically, this report describes the expansion and application of the economic modeling effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Analysis of the current modeling methods shows that one of the primary concerns for the modeling effort is the handling of uncertainty in cost estimates. Monte Carlo–based methods are commonly used to handle uncertainty, especially when implemented by a stand-alone script within a program such as Python or MATLAB. However, a script-based model requires each potential user to have access to a compiler and an executable capable of handling the script. Making the model accessible to multiple independent analysts is best accomplished by implementing the model in a common computing tool such as Microsoft Excel. Excel is readily available and accessible to most system analysts, but it is not designed for straightforward implementation of a Monte Carlo–based method. Using a Monte Carlo algorithm requires in-spreadsheet scripting and statistical analyses or the use of add-ons such as Crystal Ball. An alternative method uses propagation of error calculations in the existing Excel-based system to estimate system cost uncertainty. This method has the advantage of using Microsoft Excel as is, but it requires the use of simplifying assumptions. These assumptions do not necessarily bring into question the analytical results. In fact, the

  17. Economic Development Office

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Economic Development Office Is your technology business looking for a door to the Laboratory? The Economic Development Office at PNNL is here to help you start, grow, or relocate...

  18. Large-Scale Transport Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis: Distributed Sources in Complex Hydrogeologic Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sig Drellack, Lance Prothro

    2007-12-01

    simulations are challenged by the distributed sources in each of the Corrective Action Units, by complex mass transfer processes, and by the size and complexity of the field-scale flow models. An efficient methodology utilizing particle tracking results and convolution integrals provides in situ concentrations appropriate for Monte Carlo analysis. Uncertainty in source releases and transport parameters including effective porosity, fracture apertures and spacing, matrix diffusion coefficients, sorption coefficients, and colloid load and mobility are considered. With the distributions of input uncertainties and output plume volumes, global analysis methods including stepwise regression, contingency table analysis, and classification tree analysis are used to develop sensitivity rankings of parameter uncertainties for each model considered, thus assisting a variety of decisions.

  19. Identifying and bounding uncertainties in nuclear reactor thermal power calculations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phillips, J.; Hauser, E.; Estrada, H.

    2012-07-01

    Determination of the thermal power generated in the reactor core of a nuclear power plant is a critical element in the safe and economic operation of the plant. Direct measurement of the reactor core thermal power is made using neutron flux instrumentation; however, this instrumentation requires frequent calibration due to changes in the measured flux caused by fuel burn-up, flux pattern changes, and instrumentation drift. To calibrate the nuclear instruments, steam plant calorimetry, a process of performing a heat balance around the nuclear steam supply system, is used. There are four basic elements involved in the calculation of thermal power based on steam plant calorimetry: The mass flow of the feedwater from the power conversion system, the specific enthalpy of that feedwater, the specific enthalpy of the steam delivered to the power conversion system, and other cycle gains and losses. Of these elements, the accuracy of the feedwater mass flow and the feedwater enthalpy, as determined from its temperature and pressure, are typically the largest contributors to the calorimetric calculation uncertainty. Historically, plants have been required to include a margin of 2% in the calculation of the reactor thermal power for the licensed maximum plant output to account for instrumentation uncertainty. The margin is intended to ensure a cushion between operating power and the power for which safety analyses are performed. Use of approved chordal ultrasonic transit-time technology to make the feedwater flow and temperature measurements (in place of traditional differential-pressure- based instruments and resistance temperature detectors [RTDs]) allows for nuclear plant thermal power calculations accurate to 0.3%-0.4% of plant rated power. This improvement in measurement accuracy has allowed many plant operators in the U.S. and around the world to increase plant power output through Measurement Uncertainty Recapture (MUR) up-rates of up to 1.7% of rated power, while also

  20. Model development and data uncertainty integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Swinhoe, Martyn Thomas

    2015-12-02

    The effect of data uncertainties is discussed, with the epithermal neutron multiplicity counter as an illustrative example. Simulation using MCNP6, cross section perturbations and correlations are addressed, along with the effect of the 240Pu spontaneous fission neutron spectrum, the effect of P(ν) for 240Pu spontaneous fission, and the effect of spontaneous fission and (α,n) intensity. The effect of nuclear data is the product of the initial uncertainty and the sensitivity -- both need to be estimated. In conclusion, a multi-parameter variation method has been demonstrated, the most significant parameters are the basic emission rates of spontaneous fission and (α,n) processes, and uncertainties and important data depend on the analysis technique chosen.

  1. Global Energy: Supply, Demand, Consequences, Opportunities (LBNL Summer Lecture Series)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Majumdar, Arun

    2008-07-29

    Summer Lecture Series 2009: Arun Majumdar, Director of the Environmental Energy Technologies Division, discusses current and future projections of economic growth, population, and global energy demand and supply, and explores the implications of these trends for the environment.

  2. Global Green Growth Forum (3GF) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    find new green avenues to growth. Green growth has to be at the core of a sustainable strategy to get us out of the economic crisis. To advance this global agenda, Denmark as well...

  3. Global Energy: Supply, Demand, Consequences, Opportunities (LBNL Summer Lecture Series)

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Majumdar, Arun

    2011-04-28

    Summer Lecture Series 2009: Arun Majumdar, Director of the Environmental Energy Technologies Division, discusses current and future projections of economic growth, population, and global energy demand and supply, and explores the implications of these trends for the environment.

  4. Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    From the U.S. to China to several European Union countries to Australia to Saudi Arabia, many nations are funding research and development of carbon capture and sequestration ...

  5. Coping with uncertainties of mercury regulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reich, K.

    2006-09-15

    The thermometer is rising as coal-fired plants cope with the uncertainties of mercury regulation. The paper deals with a diagnosis and a suggested cure. It describes the state of mercury emission rules in the different US states, many of which had laws or rules in place before the Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) was promulgated.

  6. Economic impact of climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eddy, A.

    1980-05-01

    This volume summarizes the first two of a series of six workshops to investigate the economic impact of climate. These two workshops dealt mainly with input-output and econometric models. Potential for introducing weather and climate variables was discussed. A listing of topics and authors follows: Economic Models and the Identification of Climatic Effects on Economic Processes, Stan Johnson; Economic Modeling, Jim Morgan; Econometric Modeling: State of the Arts for the US Agricultural Industry, Abner Womack; Regional Input-Output Models: Understanding Their Application, Charles Lamphear; Measuring Regional Economic Impact Associated With Unfavorable Conditions During Crop Production Periods: A concept Paper, Charles Lamphear; Possible Applications of Input-Output Models in Climatic Impact Analysis, William Cooter; and Aspects of Input-Output Analysis Pertinent to Climate-Economic Modeling: Three Short Notes, William Cooter. (PSB)

  7. Economic Values | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Economic Values Jump to: navigation, search Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleEconomicValues&oldid612356...

  8. Global Home Filesystem

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Global Home Global Home Filesystem Overview Global home directories (or "global homes") provide a convenient means for a user to have access to dotfiles, source files, input files, configuration files, etc., regardless of the platform the user is logged in to. Quotas, Performance, and Usage Default global home quotas are 40 GB and 1,000,000 inodes. Quota increases in global homes are approved only in extremely unusual circumstances; users are encouraged to use the various scratch,

  9. SWAMC Economic Summit

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The 27th Annual Southwest Alaska Economic Summit and Business Meeting is a three-day conference covering energy efficiency planning, information on Alaska programs, and more.

  10. Sandia Energy - Global

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Global Home Analysis Permalink Gallery Results from the Human Resilience Index and Modeling project were reported recently in the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2030...

  11. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SunShot Grand Challenge: Regional Test Centers Global Climate & Energy HomeTag:Global Climate & Energy Electricity use by water service sector and county. Shown are electricity ...

  12. Global climate change and international security.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  13. Cleantech Professional Resource Global Limited CPR Global | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Professional Resource Global Limited CPR Global Jump to: navigation, search Name: Cleantech Professional Resource Global Limited (CPR Global) Place: London, United Kingdom Zip:...

  14. Global Partnership and Alliance Opportunities | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Partnership and Alliance Opportunities Global Partnership and Alliance Opportunities Many challenges and uncertainty facing the automotive industry, creating partnering opportunities, and lessons learned by GM on how to succeed with partnering and collaborations deer11_mayer.pdf (1.8 MB) More Documents & Publications Structuring a Partnership for Success Mechanical Bleeder/Decompression Device Electric Vehicle Safety Training for Emergency Responders

  15. IAEA Coordinated Research Project on HTGR Reactor Physics, Thermal-hydraulics and Depletion Uncertainty Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Strydom, Gerhard; Bostelmann, F.

    2015-09-01

    the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) be implemented. This CRP is a continuation of the previous IAEA and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)/Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) international activities on Verification and Validation (V&V) of available analytical capabilities for HTGR simulation for design and safety evaluations. Within the framework of these activities different numerical and experimental benchmark problems were performed and insight was gained about specific physics phenomena and the adequacy of analysis methods.

  16. The IAEA Coordinated Research Program on HTGR Uncertainty Analysis: Phase I Status and Initial Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Strydom, Gerhard; Bostelmann, Friederike; Ivanov, Kostadin

    2014-10-01

    required confidence level. In order to address uncertainty propagation in analysis and methods in the HTGR community the IAEA initiated a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) that officially started in 2013. Although this project focuses specifically on the peculiarities of HTGR designs and its simulation requirements, many lessons can be learned from the LWR community and the significant progress already made towards a consistent methodology uncertainty analysis. In the case of LWRs the NRC has already in 1988 amended 10 CFR 50.46 to allow best-estimate (plus uncertainties) calculations of emergency core cooling system performance. The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also established an Expert Group on "Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling" which finally led to the definition of the "Benchmark for Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) for Design, Operation and Safety Analysis of LWRs". The CRP on HTGR UAM will follow as far as possible the on-going OECD Light Water Reactor UAM benchmark activity.

  17. Uncertainty in BWR power during ATWS events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diamond, D.J.

    1986-01-01

    A study was undertaken to improve our understanding of BWR conditions following the closure of main steam isolation valves and the failure of reactor trip. Of particular interest was the power during the period when the core had reached a quasi-equilibrium condition with a natural circulation flow rate determined by the water level in the downcomer. Insights into the uncertainity in the calculation of this power with sophisticated computer codes were quantified using a simple model which relates power to the principal thermal-hydraulic variables and reactivity coefficients; the latter representing the link between the thermal-hydraulics and the neutronics. Assumptions regarding the uncertainty in these variables and coefficients were then used to determine the uncertainty in power.

  18. On solar geoengineering and climate uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MacMartin, Douglas; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-09-03

    Uncertainty in the climate system response has been raised as a concern regarding solar geoengineering. Here we show that model projections of regional climate change outcomes may have greater agreement under solar geoengineering than with CO2 alone. We explore the effects of geoengineering on one source of climate system uncertainty by evaluating the inter-model spread across 12 climate models participating in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison project (GeoMIP). The model spread in regional temperature and precipitation changes is reduced with CO2 and a solar reduction, in comparison to the case with increased CO2 alone. That is, the intermodel spread in predictions of climate change and the model spread in the response to solar geoengineering are not additive but rather partially cancel. Furthermore, differences in efficacy explain most of the differences between models in their temperature response to an increase in CO2 that is offset by a solar reduction. These conclusions are important for clarifying geoengineering risks.

  19. Wind Economic Development (Postcard)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-08-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Wind Powering America initiative provides information on the economic development benefits of wind energy. This postcard is a marketing piece that stakeholders can provide to interested parties; it will guide them to the economic development benefits section on the Wind Powering America website.

  20. Quantifying uncertainty in stable isotope mixing models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Davis, Paul; Syme, James; Heikoop, Jeffrey; Fessenden-Rahn, Julianna; Perkins, George; Newman, Brent; Chrystal, Abbey E.; Hagerty, Shannon B.

    2015-05-19

    Mixing models are powerful tools for identifying biogeochemical sources and determining mixing fractions in a sample. However, identification of actual source contributors is often not simple, and source compositions typically vary or even overlap, significantly increasing model uncertainty in calculated mixing fractions. This study compares three probabilistic methods, SIAR [Parnell et al., 2010] a pure Monte Carlo technique (PMC), and Stable Isotope Reference Source (SIRS) mixing model, a new technique that estimates mixing in systems with more than three sources and/or uncertain source compositions. In this paper, we use nitrate stable isotope examples (δ15N and δ18O) but all methods testedmore » are applicable to other tracers. In Phase I of a three-phase blind test, we compared methods for a set of six-source nitrate problems. PMC was unable to find solutions for two of the target water samples. The Bayesian method, SIAR, experienced anchoring problems, and SIRS calculated mixing fractions that most closely approximated the known mixing fractions. For that reason, SIRS was the only approach used in the next phase of testing. In Phase II, the problem was broadened where any subset of the six sources could be a possible solution to the mixing problem. Results showed a high rate of Type I errors where solutions included sources that were not contributing to the sample. In Phase III some sources were eliminated based on assumed site knowledge and assumed nitrate concentrations, substantially reduced mixing fraction uncertainties and lowered the Type I error rate. These results demonstrate that valuable insights into stable isotope mixing problems result from probabilistic mixing model approaches like SIRS. The results also emphasize the importance of identifying a minimal set of potential sources and quantifying uncertainties in source isotopic composition as well as demonstrating the value of additional information in reducing the uncertainty in calculated

  1. Uncertainty estimates for derivatives and intercepts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clark, E.L.

    1994-09-01

    Straight line least squares fits of experimental data are widely used in the analysis of test results to provide derivatives and intercepts. A method for evaluating the uncertainty in these parameters is described. The method utilizes conventional least squares results and is applicable to experiments where the independent variable is controlled, but not necessarily free of error. A Monte Carlo verification of the method is given.

  2. Quantifying uncertainty in stable isotope mixing models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, Paul; Syme, James; Heikoop, Jeffrey; Fessenden-Rahn, Julianna; Perkins, George; Newman, Brent; Chrystal, Abbey E.; Hagerty, Shannon B.

    2015-05-19

    Mixing models are powerful tools for identifying biogeochemical sources and determining mixing fractions in a sample. However, identification of actual source contributors is often not simple, and source compositions typically vary or even overlap, significantly increasing model uncertainty in calculated mixing fractions. This study compares three probabilistic methods, SIAR [Parnell et al., 2010] a pure Monte Carlo technique (PMC), and Stable Isotope Reference Source (SIRS) mixing model, a new technique that estimates mixing in systems with more than three sources and/or uncertain source compositions. In this paper, we use nitrate stable isotope examples (?15N and ?18O) but all methods tested are applicable to other tracers. In Phase I of a three-phase blind test, we compared methods for a set of six-source nitrate problems. PMC was unable to find solutions for two of the target water samples. The Bayesian method, SIAR, experienced anchoring problems, and SIRS calculated mixing fractions that most closely approximated the known mixing fractions. For that reason, SIRS was the only approach used in the next phase of testing. In Phase II, the problem was broadened where any subset of the six sources could be a possible solution to the mixing problem. Results showed a high rate of Type I errors where solutions included sources that were not contributing to the sample. In Phase III some sources were eliminated based on assumed site knowledge and assumed nitrate concentrations, substantially reduced mixing fraction uncertainties and lowered the Type I error rate. These results demonstrate that valuable insights into stable isotope mixing problems result from probabilistic mixing model approaches like SIRS. The results also emphasize the importance of identifying a minimal set of potential sources and quantifying uncertainties in source isotopic composition as well as demonstrating the value of additional information in reducing the

  3. Quantifying uncertainty in stable isotope mixing models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, Paul; Syme, James; Heikoop, Jeffrey; Fessenden-Rahn, Julianna; Perkins, George; Newman, Brent; Chrystal, Abbey E.; Hagerty, Shannon B.

    2015-05-19

    Mixing models are powerful tools for identifying biogeochemical sources and determining mixing fractions in a sample. However, identification of actual source contributors is often not simple, and source compositions typically vary or even overlap, significantly increasing model uncertainty in calculated mixing fractions. This study compares three probabilistic methods, SIAR [Parnell et al., 2010] a pure Monte Carlo technique (PMC), and Stable Isotope Reference Source (SIRS) mixing model, a new technique that estimates mixing in systems with more than three sources and/or uncertain source compositions. In this paper, we use nitrate stable isotope examples (δ15N and δ18O) but all methods tested are applicable to other tracers. In Phase I of a three-phase blind test, we compared methods for a set of six-source nitrate problems. PMC was unable to find solutions for two of the target water samples. The Bayesian method, SIAR, experienced anchoring problems, and SIRS calculated mixing fractions that most closely approximated the known mixing fractions. For that reason, SIRS was the only approach used in the next phase of testing. In Phase II, the problem was broadened where any subset of the six sources could be a possible solution to the mixing problem. Results showed a high rate of Type I errors where solutions included sources that were not contributing to the sample. In Phase III some sources were eliminated based on assumed site knowledge and assumed nitrate concentrations, substantially reduced mixing fraction uncertainties and lowered the Type I error rate. These results demonstrate that valuable insights into stable isotope mixing problems result from probabilistic mixing model approaches like SIRS. The results also emphasize the importance of identifying a minimal set of potential sources and quantifying uncertainties in source isotopic composition as well as demonstrating the value of additional information in reducing the

  4. Interpolation Uncertainties Across the ARM SGP Area

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Interpolation Uncertainties Across the ARM SGP Area J. E. Christy, C. N. Long, and T. R. Shippert Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland, Washington Interpolation Grids Across the SGP Network Area The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program operates a network of surface radiation measurement sites across north central Oklahoma and south central Kansas. This Southern Great Plains (SGP) network consists of 21 sites unevenly spaced from 95.5 to 99.5

  5. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  6. Representation of analysis results involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, Jay Dean; Helton, Jon Craig; Oberkampf, William Louis; Sallaberry, Cedric J.

    2008-08-01

    Procedures are described for the representation of results in analyses that involve both aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty, with aleatory uncertainty deriving from an inherent randomness in the behavior of the system under study and epistemic uncertainty deriving from a lack of knowledge about the appropriate values to use for quantities that are assumed to have fixed but poorly known values in the context of a specific study. Aleatory uncertainty is usually represented with probability and leads to cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) or complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) for analysis results of interest. Several mathematical structures are available for the representation of epistemic uncertainty, including interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory and probability theory. In the presence of epistemic uncertainty, there is not a single CDF or CCDF for a given analysis result. Rather, there is a family of CDFs and a corresponding family of CCDFs that derive from epistemic uncertainty and have an uncertainty structure that derives from the particular uncertainty structure (i.e., interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory, probability theory) used to represent epistemic uncertainty. Graphical formats for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in families of CDFs and CCDFs are investigated and presented for the indicated characterizations of epistemic uncertainty.

  7. Economics of coal fines utilization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hathi, V.; McHale, E.; Ramezan, M.; Winslow, J.

    1995-12-31

    In the twentieth century, coal has become the major fuel for electric power generation in the U.S. and most of the nonpetroleum-producing countries of the world. In 1998, the world coal-fired capacity for electric power generation was about 815 GW, consuming large quantities of coals of all ranks. Today, coal provides a third of the world`s energy requirements. In fact, coal use for power generation has grown steadily since the oil embargo in 1973 and has seen an even faster rate of growth in recent years. It has been reported that the global demand for new coal will increase by more than 1500 million tons by the year 2000. However, this increased production of coal has its drawbacks, including the concomitant production of coal waste. Reported estimates indicate that billions of tons of coal waste have already been disposed of in waste impoundments throughout the U.S. Further, in the U.S. today, about 20-25 % of each ton of mined coal is discarded by preparation plants as gob and plant tailings. It appears that the most economical near-term approach to coal waste recovery is to utilize the waste coal fines currently discarded with the refuse stream, rather than attempt to recover coal from waste impoundments that require careful prior evaluation and site preparation. A hypothetical circuit was designed to examine the economics of recovery and utilization of waste coal fines. The circuit recovers products from 100 tons per hour (tph) of coal waste feed recovering 70 tph of fine coal that can be used in coal-fired boilers. The present analysis indicates that the coal waste recovery is feasible and economical. In addition, significant environmental benefits can be expected.

  8. Uncertainty Quantification of Composite Laminate Damage with the Generalized Information Theory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J. Lucero; F. Hemez; T. Ross; K.Kline; J.Hundhausen; T. Tippetts

    2006-05-01

    This work presents a survey of five theories to assess the uncertainty of projectile impact induced damage on multi-layered carbon-epoxy composite plates. Because the types of uncertainty dealt with in this application are multiple (variability, ambiguity, and conflict) and because the data sets collected are sparse, characterizing the amount of delamination damage with probability theory alone is possible but incomplete. This motivates the exploration of methods contained within a broad Generalized Information Theory (GIT) that rely on less restrictive assumptions than probability theory. Probability, fuzzy sets, possibility, and imprecise probability (probability boxes (p-boxes) and Dempster-Shafer) are used to assess the uncertainty in composite plate damage. Furthermore, this work highlights the usefulness of each theory. The purpose of the study is not to compare directly the different GIT methods but to show that they can be deployed on a practical application and to compare the assumptions upon which these theories are based. The data sets consist of experimental measurements and finite element predictions of the amount of delamination and fiber splitting damage as multilayered composite plates are impacted by a projectile at various velocities. The physical experiments consist of using a gas gun to impact suspended plates with a projectile accelerated to prescribed velocities, then, taking ultrasound images of the resulting delamination. The nonlinear, multiple length-scale numerical simulations couple local crack propagation implemented through cohesive zone modeling to global stress-displacement finite element analysis. The assessment of damage uncertainty is performed in three steps by, first, considering the test data only; then, considering the simulation data only; finally, performing an assessment of total uncertainty where test and simulation data sets are combined. This study leads to practical recommendations for reducing the uncertainty and

  9. GE Global Research Leadership | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    About GE Global Research > Leadership Leadership GE Global Research Centers rely on the guidance of visionary leaders with deep technical knowledge on the ground at each of our sites. A photo of Vic Abate Vic Abate Chief Technology Officer GE Global Research As senior vice president and chief technology officer for GE, Vic is responsible for one of the world's largest and most diversified industrial research and technology organizations. Vic leads GE's 50,000 engineers and scientists and G...

  10. GE Global Research Locations | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Locations GE Global Research is innovating around the clock. Select one of our locations to learn more about operations there.GE Global Research is innovating around the clock. Select a location to learn more about our operations. Home > Locations GE Global Research is ALWAYS OPEN Already know about our locations? Experience a special look at a day in our life around the world! See What We're Doing Dhahran, Saudi Arabia Founded: 2015 Employees: 15 Focus Areas: Material Characterization,

  11. Aeras: A next generation global atmosphere model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Spotz, William F.; Smith, Thomas M.; Demeshko, Irina P.; Fike, Jeffrey A.

    2015-06-01

    Sandia National Laboratories is developing a new global atmosphere model named Aeras that is performance portable and supports the quantification of uncertainties. These next-generation capabilities are enabled by building Aeras on top of Albany, a code base that supports the rapid development of scientific application codes while leveraging Sandia's foundational mathematics and computer science packages in Trilinos and Dakota. Embedded uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an original design capability of Albany, and performance portability is a recent upgrade. Other required features, such as shell-type elements, spectral elements, efficient explicit and semi-implicit time-stepping, transient sensitivity analysis, and concurrent ensembles, were not componentsmore » of Albany as the project began, and have been (or are being) added by the Aeras team. We present early UQ and performance portability results for the shallow water equations.« less

  12. Aeras: A next generation global atmosphere model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Spotz, William F.; Smith, Thomas M.; Demeshko, Irina P.; Fike, Jeffrey A.

    2015-06-01

    Sandia National Laboratories is developing a new global atmosphere model named Aeras that is performance portable and supports the quantification of uncertainties. These next-generation capabilities are enabled by building Aeras on top of Albany, a code base that supports the rapid development of scientific application codes while leveraging Sandia's foundational mathematics and computer science packages in Trilinos and Dakota. Embedded uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an original design capability of Albany, and performance portability is a recent upgrade. Other required features, such as shell-type elements, spectral elements, efficient explicit and semi-implicit time-stepping, transient sensitivity analysis, and concurrent ensembles, were not components of Albany as the project began, and have been (or are being) added by the Aeras team. We present early UQ and performance portability results for the shallow water equations.

  13. October 16, 2014 Webinar - Decisional Analysis under Uncertainty |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy 6, 2014 Webinar - Decisional Analysis under Uncertainty October 16, 2014 Webinar - Decisional Analysis under Uncertainty Webinar - October 16, 2014, 11 am - 12:40 pm EDT: Dr. Paul Black (Neptune, Inc), Decisional Analysis under Uncertainty Agenda - October 16, 2014 - P&RA CoP Webinar (59.42 KB) Presentation - Decision Making under Uncertainty: Introduction to Structured Decision Analysis for Performance Assessments (4.02 MB) More Documents & Publications Status

  14. A flexible uncertainty quantification method for linearly coupled multi-physics systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, Xiao Ng, Brenda; Sun, Yunwei; Tong, Charles

    2013-09-01

    Highlights: We propose a modularly hybrid UQ methodology suitable for independent development of module-based multi-physics simulation. Our algorithmic framework allows for each module to have its own UQ method (either intrusive or non-intrusive). Information from each module is combined systematically to propagate global uncertainty. Our proposed approach can allow for easy swapping of new methods for any modules without the need to address incompatibilities. We demonstrate the proposed framework on a practical application involving a multi-species reactive transport model. -- Abstract: This paper presents a novel approach to building an integrated uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodology suitable for modern-day component-based approach for multi-physics simulation development. Our hybrid UQ methodology supports independent development of the most suitable UQ method, intrusive or non-intrusive, for each physics module by providing an algorithmic framework to couple these stochastic modules for propagating global uncertainties. We address algorithmic and computational issues associated with the construction of this hybrid framework. We demonstrate the utility of such a framework on a practical application involving a linearly coupled multi-species reactive transport model.

  15. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, J.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.

    1997-06-01

    This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  16. HPC Analytics Support. Requirements for Uncertainty Quantification Benchmarks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Paulson, Patrick R.; Purohit, Sumit; Rodriguez, Luke R.

    2015-05-01

    This report outlines techniques for extending benchmark generation products so they support uncertainty quantification by benchmarked systems. We describe how uncertainty quantification requirements can be presented to candidate analytical tools supporting SPARQL. We describe benchmark data sets for evaluating uncertainty quantification, as well as an approach for using our benchmark generator to produce data sets for generating benchmark data sets.

  17. Entropic uncertainty relations in multidimensional position and momentum spaces

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huang Yichen

    2011-05-15

    Commutator-based entropic uncertainty relations in multidimensional position and momentum spaces are derived, twofold generalizing previous entropic uncertainty relations for one-mode states. They provide optimal lower bounds and imply the multidimensional variance-based uncertainty principle. The article concludes with an open conjecture.

  18. Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Alternative Rn-222 Flux Density Models Used in Performance Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greg J. Shott, Vefa Yucel, Lloyd Desotell; Non-Nstec Authors: G. Pyles and Jon Carilli

    2007-06-01

    Performance assessments for the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site on the Nevada Test Site have used three different mathematical models to estimate Rn-222 flux density. This study describes the performance, uncertainty, and sensitivity of the three models which include the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 3.64 analytical method and two numerical methods. The uncertainty of each model was determined by Monte Carlo simulation using Latin hypercube sampling. The global sensitivity was investigated using Morris one-at-time screening method, sample-based correlation and regression methods, the variance-based extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, and Sobol's sensitivity indices. The models were found to produce similar estimates of the mean and median flux density, but to have different uncertainties and sensitivities. When the Rn-222 effective diffusion coefficient was estimated using five different published predictive models, the radon flux density models were found to be most sensitive to the effective diffusion coefficient model selected, the emanation coefficient, and the radionuclide inventory. Using a site-specific measured effective diffusion coefficient significantly reduced the output uncertainty. When a site-specific effective-diffusion coefficient was used, the models were most sensitive to the emanation coefficient and the radionuclide inventory.

  19. Assessing Fatigue and Ultimate Load Uncertainty in Floating Offshore Wind Turbines Due to Varying Simulation Length

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stewart, G.; Lackner, M.; Haid, L.; Matha, D.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.

    2013-07-01

    With the push towards siting wind turbines farther offshore due to higher wind quality and less visibility, floating offshore wind turbines, which can be located in deep water, are becoming an economically attractive option. The International Electrotechnical Commission's (IEC) 61400-3 design standard covers fixed-bottom offshore wind turbines, but there are a number of new research questions that need to be answered to modify these standards so that they are applicable to floating wind turbines. One issue is the appropriate simulation length needed for floating turbines. This paper will discuss the results from a study assessing the impact of simulation length on the ultimate and fatigue loads of the structure, and will address uncertainties associated with changing the simulation length for the analyzed floating platform. Recommendations of required simulation length based on load uncertainty will be made and compared to current simulation length requirements.

  20. Tribal Economic Outlook Conference

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Hosted by Northern Arizona University, the Tribal Economic Outlook Conference will preview the conditions that will impact business and economy in the year ahead. Hear what the experts are predicting for 2016 at the tribal, state, and local level.

  1. SWAMC Economic Summit

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Hosted by the Southwest Alaska Municipal Conference (SWAMC), the 27th Annual Southwest Alaska Economic Summit and Business Meeting is a three-day conference covering energy efficiency planning,...

  2. Techno-Economic Analysis

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Economic Analysis: Water splitting technologies and metrics Brian James Cassidy Houchins Daniel DeSantis Advanced Water Splitting Materials Workshop Stanford University 4/14/2016 Strategic Analysis Inc. Arlington VA Overview * Overview of H2A * Past H2A techno-economic analyses of water splitting technologies - High Temperature Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell (SOEC) - Photoelectrochemical (PEC) - Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen (STCH) * System and Component Metrics - Tiered technology metrics *

  3. Regional Economic Development

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Regional Economic Development Regional Economic Development Supporting companies in every stage of development through access to technology, technical assistance or investment Questions Richard P. Feynman Center for Innovation Regional Programs (505) 665-9090 New Mexico Small Business Assistance Email Venture Acceleration Fund Email DisrupTECH Email SBIR/STTR Email FCI facilitates commercialization in New Mexico to accelerate and enhance our efforts to convert federal and state research

  4. Conflict Between Economic

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Conflict Between Economic Growth and Environmental Protection Dr. Brian Czech Advancement - Steady State Economy Monday, Jan 9, 2012 - 4:15PM MBG AUDITORIUM Refreshments at 4:00PM The confict between economic growth and environmental protection may not be reconciled via technological progress. The fundamentality of the confict ultimately boils down to laws of thermodynamics. Physicists and other scholars from the physical sciences are urgently needed for helping the public and policy makers

  5. Renewable Energy Economic Potential

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The report describes a geospatial analysis method to estimate the economic potential of several renewable resources available for electricity generation in the United States. Economic potential, one measure of renewable generation potential, is defined in this report as the subset of the available resource technical potential where the cost required to generate the electricity (which determines the minimum revenue requirements for development of the resource) is below the revenue available in terms of displaced energy and displaced capacity.

  6. Tutorial examples for uncertainty quantification methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Bord, Sarah

    2015-08-01

    This report details the work accomplished during my 2015 SULI summer internship at Sandia National Laboratories in Livermore, CA. During this internship, I worked on multiple tasks with the common goal of making uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods more accessible to the general scientific community. As part of my work, I created a comprehensive numerical integration example to incorporate into the user manual of a UQ software package. Further, I developed examples involving heat transfer through a window to incorporate into tutorial lectures that serve as an introduction to UQ methods.

  7. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement .docx

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    1 1 January 2011 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 January 11, 2011 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged over $89 per barrel in December, about $5 per barrel higher than the November average. Expectations of higher oil demand, combined with unusually cold weather in both Europe and the U.S. Northeast, contributed to prices. EIA has raised the first quarter 2011 WTI spot price forecast by $8 per barrel

  8. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    0 1 August 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 August 10, 2010 Release WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $76.32 per barrel in July 2010 or about $1 per barrel above the prior month's average, and close to the $77 per barrel projected in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $80 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $85 by the end of next year (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart). Energy price

  9. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    December 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 December 7, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged over $84 per barrel in November, more than $2 per barrel higher than the October average. EIA has raised the average winter 2010-2011 period WTI spot price forecast by $1 per barrel from the last monthʹs Outlook to $84 per barrel. WTI spot prices rise to $89 per barrel by the end of next year, $2 per

  10. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    0 1 July 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 July 7, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $75.34 per barrel in June 2010 ($1.60 per barrel above the prior month's average), close to the $76 per barrel projected in the forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $79 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $84 by the end of next year (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price

  11. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    0 1 June 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 June 8, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged less than $74 per barrel in May 2010, almost $11 per barrel below the prior month's average and $7 per barrel lower than forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $79 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $84 by the end of next year, a decrease of about $3 per barrel from the

  12. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    March 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 March 9, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $76.39 per barrel in February 2010, almost $2 per barrel lower than the prior month's average and very near the $76 per barrel forecast in last month's Outlook. Last month, the WTI spot price reached a low of $71.15 on February 5 and peaked at $80.04 on February 22. EIA expects WTI prices to average above $80 per barrel this spring,

  13. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    May 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 May 11, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $84 per barrel in April 2010, about $3 per barrel above the prior month's average and $2 per barrel higher than forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $84 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $87 by the end of next year, an increase of about $2 per barrel from the previous Outlook

  14. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    November 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 November 9, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged almost $82 per barrel in October, about $7 per barrel higher than the September average, as expectations of higher oil demand pushed up prices. EIA has raised the average fourth quarter 2010 WTI spot price forecast to about $83 per barrel compared with $79 per barrel in last monthʹs Outlook. WTI spot prices rise to $87 per

  15. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    0 1 September 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 September 8, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged about $77 per barrel in August 2010, very close to the July average, but $3 per barrel lower than projected in last month's Outlook. WTI spot prices averaged almost $82 per barrel over the first 10 days of August but then fell by $9 per barrel over the next 2 weeks as the market reacted to a series

  16. Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Kelic, Andjelka; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2009-10-01

    Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to the economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.

  17. Implementation of global energy sustainability

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grob, G.R.

    1998-02-01

    The term energy sustainability emerged from the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio 1992, when Agenda 21 was formulated and the Global Energy Charter proclaimed. Emission reductions, total energy costing, improved energy efficiency, and sustainable energy systems are the four fundamental principles of the charter. These principles can be implemented in the proposed financial, legal, technical, and education framework. Much has been done in many countries toward the implementation of the Global Energy Charter, but progress has not been fast enough to ease the disastrous effects of the too many ill-conceived energy systems on the environment, climate, and health. Global warming is accelerating, and pollution is worsening, especially in developing countries with their hunger for energy to meet the needs of economic development. Asian cities are now beating all pollution records, and greenhouse gases are visibly changing the climate with rising sea levels, retracting glaciers, and record weather disasters. This article presents why and how energy investments and research money have to be rechanneled into sustainable energy, rather than into the business-as-usual of depleting, unsustainable energy concepts exceeding one trillion dollars per year. This largest of all investment sectors needs much more attention.

  18. Methodology for characterizing modeling and discretization uncertainties in computational simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    ALVIN,KENNETH F.; OBERKAMPF,WILLIAM L.; RUTHERFORD,BRIAN M.; DIEGERT,KATHLEEN V.

    2000-03-01

    This research effort focuses on methodology for quantifying the effects of model uncertainty and discretization error on computational modeling and simulation. The work is directed towards developing methodologies which treat model form assumptions within an overall framework for uncertainty quantification, for the purpose of developing estimates of total prediction uncertainty. The present effort consists of work in three areas: framework development for sources of uncertainty and error in the modeling and simulation process which impact model structure; model uncertainty assessment and propagation through Bayesian inference methods; and discretization error estimation within the context of non-deterministic analysis.

  19. Penetrator reliability investigation and design exploration : from conventional design processes to innovative uncertainty-capturing algorithms.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martinez-Canales, Monica L.; Heaphy, Robert; Gramacy, Robert B.; Taddy, Matt; Chiesa, Michael L.; Thomas, Stephen W.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Hough, Patricia Diane; Lee, Herbert K. H.; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Gray, Genetha Anne

    2006-11-01

    This project focused on research and algorithmic development in optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problems driven by earth penetrator (EP) designs. While taking into account uncertainty, we addressed three challenges in current simulation-based engineering design and analysis processes. The first challenge required leveraging small local samples, already constructed by optimization algorithms, to build effective surrogate models. We used Gaussian Process (GP) models to construct these surrogates. We developed two OUU algorithms using 'local' GPs (OUU-LGP) and one OUU algorithm using 'global' GPs (OUU-GGP) that appear competitive or better than current methods. The second challenge was to develop a methodical design process based on multi-resolution, multi-fidelity models. We developed a Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Auto-regressive process (MF-BAP). The third challenge involved the development of tools that are computational feasible and accessible. We created MATLAB{reg_sign} and initial DAKOTA implementations of our algorithms.

  20. Adaptive strategies for materials design using uncertainties

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Balachandran, Prasanna V.; Xue, Dezhen; Theiler, James; Hogden, John; Lookman, Turab

    2016-01-21

    Here, we compare several adaptive design strategies using a data set of 223 M2AX family of compounds for which the elastic properties [bulk (B), shear (G), and Young’s (E) modulus] have been computed using density functional theory. The design strategies are decomposed into an iterative loop with two main steps: machine learning is used to train a regressor that predicts elastic properties in terms of elementary orbital radii of the individual components of the materials; and a selector uses these predictions and their uncertainties to choose the next material to investigate. The ultimate goal is to obtain a material withmore » desired elastic properties in as few iterations as possible. We examine how the choice of data set size, regressor and selector impact the design. We find that selectors that use information about the prediction uncertainty outperform those that don’t. Our work is a step in illustrating how adaptive design tools can guide the search for new materials with desired properties.« less

  1. Uncertainty Budget Analysis for Dimensional Inspection Processes (U)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valdez, Lucas M.

    2012-07-26

    This paper is intended to provide guidance and describe how to prepare an uncertainty analysis of a dimensional inspection process through the utilization of an uncertainty budget analysis. The uncertainty analysis is stated in the same methodology as that of the ISO GUM standard for calibration and testing. There is a specific distinction between how Type A and Type B uncertainty analysis is used in a general and specific process. All theory and applications are utilized to represent both a generalized approach to estimating measurement uncertainty and how to report and present these estimations for dimensional measurements in a dimensional inspection process. The analysis of this uncertainty budget shows that a well-controlled dimensional inspection process produces a conservative process uncertainty, which can be attributed to the necessary assumptions in place for best possible results.

  2. Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Reinert, Rhonda K.; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-04-01

    Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-model ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.

  3. Economic assessment model architecture for AGC/AVLIS selection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoglund, R.L.

    1984-05-24

    The economic assessment model architecture described provides the flexibility and completeness in economic analysis that the selection between AGC and AVLIS demands. Process models which are technology-specific will provide the first-order responses of process performance and cost to variations in process parameters. The economics models can be used to test the impacts of alternative deployment scenarios for a technology. Enterprise models provide global figures of merit for evaluating the DOE perspective on the uranium enrichment enterprise, and business analysis models compute the financial parameters from the private investor's viewpoint.

  4. Global climate change and international security

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  5. The 7. global warming international conference and expo: Abstracts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-12-31

    This conference was held April 1--3, 1996 in Vienna, Austria. The purpose of this conference was to provide a multidisciplinary forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on global warming. Topics of interest include the following: global and regional natural resource management; energy, transportation, minerals and natural resource management; industrial technology and greenhouse gas emission; strategies for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emission; greenhouse gas production/utilization and carbon budgets; strategies for promoting the understanding of global change; international policy strategy and economics; and global warming and public health. Individual papers have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases.

  6. Disaggregating measurement uncertainty from population variability and Bayesian treatment of uncensored results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Strom, Daniel J.; Joyce, Kevin E.; Maclellan, Jay A.; Watson, David J.; Lynch, Timothy P.; Antonio, Cheryl L.; Birchall, Alan; Anderson, Kevin K.; Zharov, Peter

    2012-04-17

    In making low-level radioactivity measurements of populations, it is commonly observed that a substantial portion of net results are negative. Furthermore, the observed variance of the measurement results arises from a combination of measurement uncertainty and population variability. This paper presents a method for disaggregating measurement uncertainty from population variability to produce a probability density function (PDF) of possibly true results. To do this, simple, justifiable, and reasonable assumptions are made about the relationship of the measurements to the measurands (the 'true values'). The measurements are assumed to be unbiased, that is, that their average value is the average of the measurands. Using traditional estimates of each measurement's uncertainty to disaggregate population variability from measurement uncertainty, a PDF of measurands for the population is produced. Then, using Bayes's theorem, the same assumptions, and all the data from the population of individuals, a prior PDF is computed for each individual's measurand. These PDFs are non-negative, and their average is equal to the average of the measurement results for the population. The uncertainty in these Bayesian posterior PDFs is all Berkson with no remaining classical component. The methods are applied to baseline bioassay data from the Hanford site. The data include 90Sr urinalysis measurements on 128 people, 137Cs in vivo measurements on 5,337 people, and 239Pu urinalysis measurements on 3,270 people. The method produces excellent results for the 90Sr and 137Cs measurements, since there are nonzero concentrations of these global fallout radionuclides in people who have not been occupationally exposed. The method does not work for the 239Pu measurements in non-occupationally exposed people because the population average is essentially zero.

  7. New Global Research Website | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    I Want to See... the New Global Research Website Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window) Share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Click to share (Opens in new window) ...

  8. Survey and Evaluate Uncertainty Quantification Methodologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin, Guang; Engel, David W.; Eslinger, Paul W.

    2012-02-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a partnership among national laboratories, industry and academic institutions that will develop and deploy state-of-the-art computational modeling and simulation tools to accelerate the commercialization of carbon capture technologies from discovery to development, demonstration, and ultimately the widespread deployment to hundreds of power plants. The CCSI Toolset will provide end users in industry with a comprehensive, integrated suite of scientifically validated models with uncertainty quantification, optimization, risk analysis and decision making capabilities. The CCSI Toolset will incorporate commercial and open-source software currently in use by industry and will also develop new software tools as necessary to fill technology gaps identified during execution of the project. The CCSI Toolset will (1) enable promising concepts to be more quickly identified through rapid computational screening of devices and processes; (2) reduce the time to design and troubleshoot new devices and processes; (3) quantify the technical risk in taking technology from laboratory-scale to commercial-scale; and (4) stabilize deployment costs more quickly by replacing some of the physical operational tests with virtual power plant simulations. The goal of CCSI is to deliver a toolset that can simulate the scale-up of a broad set of new carbon capture technologies from laboratory scale to full commercial scale. To provide a framework around which the toolset can be developed and demonstrated, we will focus on three Industrial Challenge Problems (ICPs) related to carbon capture technologies relevant to U.S. pulverized coal (PC) power plants. Post combustion capture by solid sorbents is the technology focus of the initial ICP (referred to as ICP A). The goal of the uncertainty quantification (UQ) task (Task 6) is to provide a set of capabilities to the user community for the quantification of uncertainties associated with the carbon

  9. Economical wind protection - underground

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kiesling, E.W.

    1980-01-01

    Earth-sheltered buildings inherently posess near-absolute occupant protection from severe winds. They should sustain no structural damage and only minimal facial damage. Assuming that the lower-hazard risk attendant to this type of construction results in reduced insurance-premium rates, the owner accrues economic benefits from the time of construction. Improvements to aboveground buildings, in contrast, may not yield early economic benefits in spite of a favorable benefit-to-cost ratio. This, in addition to sensitivity to initial costs, traditionalism in residential construction, and lack of professional input to design, impede the widespread use of underground improvements and the subsequent economic losses from severe winds. Going underground could reverse the trend. 7 references.

  10. Economic impacts study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brunsen, W.; Worley, W.; Frost, E.

    1988-09-30

    This is a progress report on the first phase of a project to measure the economic impacts of a rapidly changing U.S. target base. The purpose of the first phase is to designate and test the macroeconomic impact analysis model. Criteria were established for a decision-support model. Additional criteria were defined for an interactive macroeconomic impact analysis model. After a review of several models, the Economic Impact Forecast System model of the U.S. Army Construction Research Laboratory was selected as the appropriate input-output tool that can address local and regional economic analysis. The model was applied to five test cases to demonstrate its utility and define possible revisions to meet project criteria. A plan for EIFS access was defined at three levels. Objectives and tasks for scenario refinement are proposed.

  11. Radiotherapy Dose Fractionation under Parameter Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davison, Matt; Kim, Daero; Keller, Harald

    2011-11-30

    In radiotherapy, radiation is directed to damage a tumor while avoiding surrounding healthy tissue. Tradeoffs ensue because dose cannot be exactly shaped to the tumor. It is particularly important to ensure that sensitive biological structures near the tumor are not damaged more than a certain amount. Biological tissue is known to have a nonlinear response to incident radiation. The linear quadratic dose response model, which requires the specification of two clinically and experimentally observed response coefficients, is commonly used to model this effect. This model yields an optimization problem giving two different types of optimal dose sequences (fractionation schedules). Which fractionation schedule is preferred depends on the response coefficients. These coefficients are uncertainly known and may differ from patient to patient. Because of this not only the expected outcomes but also the uncertainty around these outcomes are important, and it might not be prudent to select the strategy with the best expected outcome.

  12. Geostatistical evaluation of travel time uncertainties

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Devary, J.L.

    1983-08-01

    Data on potentiometric head and hydraulic conductivity, gathered from the Wolfcamp Formation of the Permian System, have exhibited tremendous spatial variability as a result of heterogeneities in the media and the presence of petroleum and natural gas deposits. Geostatistical data analysis and error propagation techniques (kriging and conditional simulation) were applied to determine the effect of potentiometric head uncertainties on radionuclide travel paths and travel times through the Wolfcamp Formation. Blok-average kriging was utilized to remove measurement error from potentiometric head data. The travel time calculations have been enhanced by the use of an inverse technique to determine the relative hydraulic conductivity along travel paths. In this way, the spatial variability of the hydraulic conductivity corresponding to streamline convergence and divergence may be included in the analysis. 22 references, 11 figures, 1 table.

  13. Intrinsic Uncertainties in Modeling Complex Systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooper, Curtis S; Bramson, Aaron L.; Ames, Arlo L.

    2014-09-01

    Models are built to understand and predict the behaviors of both natural and artificial systems. Because it is always necessary to abstract away aspects of any non-trivial system being modeled, we know models can potentially leave out important, even critical elements. This reality of the modeling enterprise forces us to consider the prospective impacts of those effects completely left out of a model - either intentionally or unconsidered. Insensitivity to new structure is an indication of diminishing returns. In this work, we represent a hypothetical unknown effect on a validated model as a finite perturba- tion whose amplitude is constrained within a control region. We find robustly that without further constraints, no meaningful bounds can be placed on the amplitude of a perturbation outside of the control region. Thus, forecasting into unsampled regions is a very risky proposition. We also present inherent difficulties with proper time discretization of models and representing in- herently discrete quantities. We point out potentially worrisome uncertainties, arising from math- ematical formulation alone, which modelers can inadvertently introduce into models of complex systems. Acknowledgements This work has been funded under early-career LDRD project %23170979, entitled %22Quantify- ing Confidence in Complex Systems Models Having Structural Uncertainties%22, which ran from 04/2013 to 09/2014. We wish to express our gratitude to the many researchers at Sandia who con- tributed ideas to this work, as well as feedback on the manuscript. In particular, we would like to mention George Barr, Alexander Outkin, Walt Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, and Laura Swiler for provid- ing invaluable advice and guidance through the course of the project. We would also like to thank Steven Kleban, Amanda Gonzales, Trevor Manzanares, and Sarah Burwell for their assistance in managing project tasks and resources.

  14. Challenges, uncertainties and issues facing gas production from gas hydrate deposits

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Moridis, G.J.; Collett, T.S.; Pooladi-Darvish, M.; Hancock, S.; Santamarina, C.; Boswell, R.; Kneafsey, T.; Rutqvist, J.; Kowalsky, M.; Reagan, M.T.; Sloan, E.D.; Sum, A.K.; Koh, C.

    2010-11-01

    The current paper complements the Moridis et al. (2009) review of the status of the effort toward commercial gas production from hydrates. We aim to describe the concept of the gas hydrate petroleum system, to discuss advances, requirement and suggested practices in gas hydrate (GH) prospecting and GH deposit characterization, and to review the associated technical, economic and environmental challenges and uncertainties, including: the accurate assessment of producible fractions of the GH resource, the development of methodologies for identifying suitable production targets, the sampling of hydrate-bearing sediments and sample analysis, the analysis and interpretation of geophysical surveys of GH reservoirs, well testing methods and interpretation of the results, geomechanical and reservoir/well stability concerns, well design, operation and installation, field operations and extending production beyond sand-dominated GH reservoirs, monitoring production and geomechanical stability, laboratory investigations, fundamental knowledge of hydrate behavior, the economics of commercial gas production from hydrates, and the associated environmental concerns.

  15. Going Global: Tight Oil Production

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    GOING GLOBAL: TIGHT OIL PRODUCTION Leaping out of North America and onto the World Stage JULY 2014 GOING GLOBAL: TIGHT OIL PRODUCTION Jamie Webster, Senior Director Global Oil ...

  16. Unconventional gas outlook: resources, economics, and technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Drazga, B.

    2006-08-15

    The report explains the current and potential of the unconventional gas market including country profiles, major project case studies, and new technology research. It identifies the major players in the market and reports their current and forecasted projects, as well as current volume and anticipated output for specific projects. Contents are: Overview of unconventional gas; Global natural gas market; Drivers of unconventional gas sources; Forecast; Types of unconventional gas; Major producing regions Overall market trends; Production technology research; Economics of unconventional gas production; Barriers and challenges; Key regions: Australia, Canada, China, Russia, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States; Major Projects; Industry Initiatives; Major players. Uneconomic or marginally economic resources such as tight (low permeability) sandstones, shale gas, and coalbed methane are considered unconventional. However, due to continued research and favorable gas prices, many previously uneconomic or marginally economic gas resources are now economically viable, and may not be considered unconventional by some companies. Unconventional gas resources are geologically distinct in that conventional gas resources are buoyancy-driven deposits, occurring as discrete accumulations in structural or stratigraphic traps, whereas unconventional gas resources are generally not buoyancy-driven deposits. The unconventional natural gas category (CAM, gas shales, tight sands, and landfill) is expected to continue at double-digit growth levels in the near term. Until 2008, demand for unconventional natural gas is likely to increase at an AAR corresponding to 10.7% from 2003, aided by prioritized research and development efforts. 1 app.

  17. Venture Global Calcasieu Pass, LLC - (Formerly Venture Global...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Venture Global Calcasieu Pass, LLC - (Formerly Venture Global LNG, LLC) - 14-88-LNG Venture Global Calcasieu Pass, LLC - (Formerly Venture Global LNG, LLC) - 14-88-LNG The Office ...

  18. Wind Power Project Repowering: History, Economics, and Demand (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.

    2015-01-01

    This presentation summarizes a related NREL technical report and seeks to capture the current status of wind power project repowering in the U.S. and globally, analyze the economic and financial decision drivers that surround repowering, and to quantify the level and timing of demand for new turbine equipment to supply the repowering market.

  19. Entanglement criteria via concave-function uncertainty relations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huang Yichen

    2010-07-15

    A general theorem as a necessary condition for the separability of quantum states in both finite and infinite dimensional systems, based on concave-function uncertainty relations, is derived. Two special cases of the general theorem are stronger than two known entanglement criteria based on the Shannon entropic uncertainty relation and the Landau-Pollak uncertainty relation, respectively; other special cases are able to detect entanglement where some famous entanglement criteria fail.

  20. Solar Irradiances Measured using SPN1 Radiometers: Uncertainties and Clues for Development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Badosa, Jordi; Wood, John; Blanc, Philippe; Long, Charles N.; Vuilleumier, Laurent; Demengel, Dominique; Haeffelin, Martial

    2014-12-08

    The fast development of solar radiation and energy applications, such as photovoltaic and solar thermodynamic systems, has increased the need for solar radiation measurement and monitoring, not only for the global component but also the diffuse and direct. End users look for the best compromise between getting close to state-of-the-art measurements and keeping capital, maintenance and operating costs to a minimum. Among the existing commercial options, SPN1 is a relatively low cost solar radiometer that estimates global and diffuse solar irradiances from seven thermopile sensors under a shading mask and without moving parts. This work presents a comprehensive study of SPN1 accuracy and sources of uncertainty, which results from laboratory experiments, numerical modeling and comparison studies between measurements from this sensor and state-of-the art instruments for six diverse sites. Several clues are provided for improving the SPN1 accuracy and agreement with state-of-the-art measurements.

  1. Improvements to Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    data evaluation process much more accurately, and lead to a new generation of uncertainty quantification files. ... of AFCI. While in the past the design, construction and operation of ...

  2. Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Talou, Patrick Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nazarewicz, Witold University of Tennessee, Knoxville,...

  3. A density-matching approach for optimization under uncertainty...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    A density-matching approach for optimization under uncertainty Citation Details ... Journal Name: Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering Additional Journal ...

  4. Early solar mass loss, opacity uncertainties, and the solar abundance...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Early solar mass loss, opacity uncertainties, and the solar abundance problem Citation ... Visit OSTI to utilize additional information resources in energy science and technology. A ...

  5. Estimation of uncertainty for contour method residual stress measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Olson, Mitchell D.; DeWald, Adrian T.; Prime, Michael B.; Hill, Michael R.

    2014-12-03

    This paper describes a methodology for the estimation of measurement uncertainty for the contour method, where the contour method is an experimental technique for measuring a two-dimensional map of residual stress over a plane. Random error sources including the error arising from noise in displacement measurements and the smoothing of the displacement surfaces are accounted for in the uncertainty analysis. The output is a two-dimensional, spatially varying uncertainty estimate such that every point on the cross-section where residual stress is determined has a corresponding uncertainty value. Both numerical and physical experiments are reported, which are used to support the usefulness of the proposed uncertainty estimator. The uncertainty estimator shows the contour method to have larger uncertainty near the perimeter of the measurement plane. For the experiments, which were performed on a quenched aluminum bar with a cross section of 51 76 mm, the estimated uncertainty was approximately 5 MPa (?/E = 7 10??) over the majority of the cross-section, with localized areas of higher uncertainty, up to 10 MPa (?/E = 14 10??).

  6. Uncertainty quantification of US Southwest climate from IPCC...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Uncertainty quantification of US Southwest climate from IPCC projections. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) made extensive ...

  7. Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wells, C.

    1992-10-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment's final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

  8. Uncertainty quantification in fission cross section measurements at LANSCE

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Tovesson, F.

    2015-01-09

    Neutron-induced fission cross sections have been measured for several isotopes of uranium and plutonium at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) over a wide range of incident neutron energies. The total uncertainties in these measurements are in the range 3–5% above 100 keV of incident neutron energy, which results from uncertainties in the target, neutron source, and detector system. The individual sources of uncertainties are assumed to be uncorrelated, however correlation in the cross section across neutron energy bins are considered. The quantification of the uncertainty contributions will be described here.

  9. Uncertainties in Air Exchange using Continuous-Injection, Long...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    people to minimize experimental costs. In this article we will conduct a first-principles error analysis to estimate the uncertainties and then compare that analysis to CILTS...

  10. Estimation of uncertainty for contour method residual stress measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Olson, Mitchell D.; DeWald, Adrian T.; Prime, Michael B.; Hill, Michael R.

    2014-12-03

    This paper describes a methodology for the estimation of measurement uncertainty for the contour method, where the contour method is an experimental technique for measuring a two-dimensional map of residual stress over a plane. Random error sources including the error arising from noise in displacement measurements and the smoothing of the displacement surfaces are accounted for in the uncertainty analysis. The output is a two-dimensional, spatially varying uncertainty estimate such that every point on the cross-section where residual stress is determined has a corresponding uncertainty value. Both numerical and physical experiments are reported, which are used to support the usefulness of the proposed uncertainty estimator. The uncertainty estimator shows the contour method to have larger uncertainty near the perimeter of the measurement plane. For the experiments, which were performed on a quenched aluminum bar with a cross section of 51 × 76 mm, the estimated uncertainty was approximately 5 MPa (σ/E = 7 · 10⁻⁵) over the majority of the cross-section, with localized areas of higher uncertainty, up to 10 MPa (σ/E = 14 · 10⁻⁵).

  11. Estimation of uncertainty for contour method residual stress measurements

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Olson, Mitchell D.; DeWald, Adrian T.; Prime, Michael B.; Hill, Michael R.

    2014-12-03

    This paper describes a methodology for the estimation of measurement uncertainty for the contour method, where the contour method is an experimental technique for measuring a two-dimensional map of residual stress over a plane. Random error sources including the error arising from noise in displacement measurements and the smoothing of the displacement surfaces are accounted for in the uncertainty analysis. The output is a two-dimensional, spatially varying uncertainty estimate such that every point on the cross-section where residual stress is determined has a corresponding uncertainty value. Both numerical and physical experiments are reported, which are used to support the usefulnessmore » of the proposed uncertainty estimator. The uncertainty estimator shows the contour method to have larger uncertainty near the perimeter of the measurement plane. For the experiments, which were performed on a quenched aluminum bar with a cross section of 51 × 76 mm, the estimated uncertainty was approximately 5 MPa (σ/E = 7 · 10⁻⁵) over the majority of the cross-section, with localized areas of higher uncertainty, up to 10 MPa (σ/E = 14 · 10⁻⁵).« less

  12. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  13. Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    However, the estimation of excess mortality attributable to future heat waves is subject to large uncertainties, which have not been examined under the latest greenhouse gas ...

  14. Comparison of Uncertainty of Two Precipitation Prediction Models...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Prediction Models at Los Alamos National Lab Technical Area 54 Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Comparison of Uncertainty of Two Precipitation Prediction Models ...

  15. Variable Grid Method for Visualizing Uncertainty Associated with...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    interpretation. In general, NETL's VGM applies a grid system where the size of the cell represents the uncertainty associated with the original point data sources or their...

  16. Output-Based Error Estimation and Adaptation for Uncertainty...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Output-Based Error Estimation and Adaptation for Uncertainty Quantification Isaac M. Asher and Krzysztof J. Fidkowski University of Michigan US National Congress on Computational...

  17. A Unified Approach for Reporting ARM Measurement Uncertainties...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    0 A Unified Approach for Reporting ARM Measurement Uncertainties Technical Report E Campos DL Sisterson October 2015 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work ...

  18. Uncertainty Estimates for SIRS, SKYRAD, & GNDRAD Data and Reprocessing...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Uncertainty Estimates for SIRS, SKYRAD, & GNDRAD Data and Reprocessing the Pyrgeometer Data (Presentation) The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the ...

  19. Before House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights,

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and International Organizations, Committee on Foreign Affairs | Department of Energy House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations, Committee on Foreign Affairs Before House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations, Committee on Foreign Affairs Testimony of Jonathan Elkind, Acting Assistant Secretary, Office of International Affairs Before House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global

  20. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, main report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A.; Hora, S.C.; Lui, C.H.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M.; Paesler-Sauer, J.; Helton, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of the joint effort was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. Experts developed their distributions independently. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. To validate the distributions generated for the dispersion code input variables, samples from the distributions and propagated through the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the first of a three-volume document describing the project.

  1. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, appendices A and B

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A.; Hora, S.C.; Lui, C.H.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M.; Paesler-Sauer, J.; Helton, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the second of a three-volume document describing the project and contains two appendices describing the rationales for the dispersion and deposition data along with short biographies of the 16 experts who participated in the project.

  2. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.; Harrison, J.D.; Harper, F.T.; Hora, S.C.

    1998-04-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  3. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haskin, F.E.; Harper, F.T.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on early health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  4. GE Global Research Careers | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Careers The best and brightest minds in science and technology make breakthroughs daily at GE Global Research. Are you ready to join our team? Job Search Location Location Bangalore, India Dhahran, Saudi Arabia Munich, Germany Niskayuna, USA Oklahoma City, USA Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Shanghai, China Tirat Carmel, Israel Keyword Search Jobs » View All Jobs Keep in Touch With GE Global Research Careers Home > Careers Why GE careers_why_GE GE works on things that matter. The best people and the

  5. GE Global Research Contact | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Contact Us Looking for more details? Please contact one of these individuals or visit the Newsroom for the latest information. Home > About GE Global Research > Contact Us GE Global Research 1 Research Circle, Niskayuna, NY 12309, USA Todd Alhart +1.518.387.7914 todd.alhart@ge.com Communications and Public Relations GE Brazil Technology Center Rua Trinta e Seis (Praia dos Coqueiros), s/n, Supl. Ilha do Bom Jesus 840 Ilha do Fundão - Cidade Universitária Rio de Janeiro, RJ - CEP 21941-593

  6. Military implications of global warming. Strategy research project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greene, P.E.

    1999-05-20

    The 1998 National Security Strategy repeatedly cites global environmental issues as key to the long-term security of the United States. Similarly, US environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current US Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate change. It discusses related economic factors and environmental concerns. It assesses current White House policy as it relates to the US military. It reviews the Department of Defense strategy for energy conservation and reduction of greenhouse gases. Finally, it offers recommendations and options for military involvement to reduce global warming. Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the US military. As the United States leadership in environmental matters encourages global stability, the US military will be able to focus more on readiness and on military training and operations.

  7. Building | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Building We're creating infrastructure, refining materials and assembling technologies that accommodate our constantly changing world. Home > Impact > Building Global Research and GE Capital: Middle Market Collaboration In 2013, a partnering initiative between Global Research and GE Capital resulted in dozens of middle market companies... Read More » How Green Is Green? GE's Global Research Center's Ecoassessment Center of Excellence was created to study the impact of GE products and

  8. Moving | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Read More GE Scientists Demonstrate Promising Anti-icing Nano Surfaces GE Global Research today presented new research findings on its nanotextured anti-icing surfaces. In ...

  9. Global Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable ... Climate & Earth Systems Climate Measurement & Modeling Arctic Climate Measurements Global ...

  10. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Team Attends World Water Week in Stockholm Climate, Energy, Global Climate & Energy, Modeling, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Water Security Sandia Team Attends World ...

  11. ARM - Global Warming

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox ...

  12. ARM - Global Experts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox ...

  13. ARM - Global Thinkers

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox ...

  14. ARM - Global Beginners

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox ...

  15. Establishing Economic Competitiveness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Establishing Economic Competitiveness Energy storage technologies can transform electric systems operation by providing flexibility. This can improve the efficiency of electric system operation. For example, energy storage systems can smooth the otherwise variable production of renewable energy technologies and help shift the peak demand to reduce peak electric prices. Though energy storage technologies can be game-changing grid technology, they must inevitably compete with alternative

  16. WINDExchange: Wind Economic Development

    Wind Powering America (EERE)

    Development WINDExchange provides software applications and publications to help individuals, developers, local governments, and utilities make decisions about wind power. Projecting costs and benefits of new installations, including the economic development impacts created, is a key element in looking at potential wind applications. Communities, states, regions, job markets (i.e., construction, operations and maintenance), the tax base, tax revenues, and others can be positively affected. These

  17. Economic Development - SRSCRO

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Economic Development As the designated Community Reuse Organization (CRO) for the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site, the Savannah River Site Community Reuse Organization (SRSCRO) is charged with the responsibility for developing and implementing a comprehensive plan to diversify the economy of the SRSCRO region. During its 50 year history, the Savannah River Site has supported America's national defense mission, contributing significantly to the successful end of the Cold War at the

  18. MTBE Production Economics

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    MTBE Production Economics Tancred C. M. Lidderdale Contents 1. Summary 2. MTBE Production Costs 3. Relationship between price of MTBE and Reformulated Gasoline 4. Influence of Natural Gas Prices on the Gasoline Market 5. Regression Results 6. Data Sources 7. End Notes 1. Summary Last year the price of MTBE (methyl tertiary butyl ether) increased dramatically on two occasions (Figure 1) (see Data Sources at end of article.): 1. Between April and June 2000, the price (U.S. Gulf Coast waterborne

  19. Cogeneration: Economics and politics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prince, R.G.H.; Poole, M.L.

    1996-12-31

    Cogeneration is a well established process for supplying heat and electricity from a single fuel source. Its feasibility and implementation in any particular case depend on technical, economic and internal and external {open_quotes}cultural{close_quotes} factors, including government policies. This paper describes the current status of small scale industrial cogeneration in Australia. A model has been developed to analyse the technical and economic aspects of retrofitting gas turbine cogeneration in the size range 3 to 30MW to industrial sites. The model demonstrates that for typical Australian energy cost data, the payback and the size of the optimized cogeneration plant depend strongly on electricity buyback prices. Also reviewed are some of the {open_quotes}cultural{close_quotes} factors which often militate against an otherwise economic installation, and government policies which may retard cogeneration by concern about local air emissions or favor it as increasing efficiency of energy use and reducing greenhouse emissions. A case study of a small gas turbine plant in Australia is outlined. 2 refs., 2 figs.

  20. Uncertainty in Resilience to Climate Change in India and Indian States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

    2008-10-03

    This study builds on an earlier analysis of resilience of India and Indian states to climate change. The previous study (Brenkert and Malone 2005) assessed current resilience; this research uses the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) to project resilience to 2095 and to perform an uncertainty analysis on the deterministic results. Projections utilized two SRES-based scenarios, one with fast-and-high growth, one with delayed growth. A detailed comparison of two states, the Punjab and Orissa, points to the kinds of insights that can be obtained using the VRIM. The scenarios differ most significantly in the timing of the uncertainty in economic prosperity (represented by GDP per capita) as a major factor in explaining the uncertainty in the resilience index. In the fast-and-high growth scenario the states differ most markedly regarding the role of ecosystem sensitivity, land use and water availability. The uncertainty analysis shows, for example, that resilience in the Punjab might be enhanced, especially in the delayed growth scenario, if early attention is paid to the impact of ecosystems sensitivity on environmental well-being of the state. By the same token, later in the century land-use pressures might be avoided if land is managed through intensification rather than extensification of agricultural land. Thus, this methodology illustrates how a policy maker can be informed about where to focus attention on specific issues, by understanding the potential changes at a specific location and time – and, thus, what might yield desired outcomes. Model results can point to further analyses of the potential for resilience-building.

  1. Propagation of Isotopic Bias and Uncertainty to Criticality Safety Analyses of PWR Waste Packages

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Radulescu, Georgeta

    2010-06-01

    Burnup credit methodology is economically advantageous because significantly higher loading capacity may be achieved for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) casks based on this methodology as compared to the loading capacity based on a fresh fuel assumption. However, the criticality safety analysis for establishing the loading curve based on burnup credit becomes increasingly complex as more parameters accounting for spent fuel isotopic compositions are introduced to the safety analysis. The safety analysis requires validation of both depletion and criticality calculation methods. Validation of a neutronic-depletion code consists of quantifying the bias and the uncertainty associated with the bias in predicted SNF compositions caused by cross-section data uncertainty and by approximations in the calculational method. The validation is based on comparison between radiochemical assay (RCA) data and calculated isotopic concentrations for fuel samples representative of SNF inventory. The criticality analysis methodology for commercial SNF disposal allows burnup credit for 14 actinides and 15 fission product isotopes in SNF compositions. The neutronic-depletion method for disposal criticality analysis employing burnup credit is the two-dimensional (2-D) depletion sequence TRITON (Transport Rigor Implemented with Time-dependent Operation for Neutronic depletion)/NEWT (New ESC-based Weighting Transport code) and the 44GROUPNDF5 crosssection library in the Standardized Computer Analysis for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE 5.1) code system. The SCALE 44GROUPNDF5 cross section library is based on the Evaluated Nuclear Data File/B Version V (ENDF/B-V) library. The criticality calculation code for disposal criticality analysis employing burnup credit is General Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) Transport Code. The purpose of this calculation report is to determine the bias on the calculated effective neutron multiplication factor, k{sub eff}, due to the bias and bias uncertainty associated with

  2. Winners and losers in a world with global warming: Noncooperation, altruism, and social welfare

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Caplan, A.J.; Ellis, C.J.; Silva, E.C.D.

    1999-05-01

    In this paper, global warming is an asymmetric transboundary externality which benefits some countries or regions and harms others. Few environmental problems have captured the public`s imagination as much and attracted as much scrutiny as global warming. The general perception is that global warming is a net social bad, and that across-the-board abatement of greenhouse gas emissions is therefore desirable. Despite many interesting academic contributions, not all of the basic economics of this phenomenon have been fully worked out. The authors use a simple two-country model to analyze the effects of global warming on resource allocations, the global-warming stock, and national and global welfare.

  3. Quantifying and Reducing Curve-Fitting Uncertainty in Isc: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Campanelli, Mark; Duck, Benjamin; Emery, Keith

    2015-09-28

    Current-voltage (I-V) curve measurements of photovoltaic (PV) devices are used to determine performance parameters and to establish traceable calibration chains. Measurement standards specify localized curve fitting methods, e.g., straight-line interpolation/extrapolation of the I-V curve points near short-circuit current, Isc. By considering such fits as statistical linear regressions, uncertainties in the performance parameters are readily quantified. However, the legitimacy of such a computed uncertainty requires that the model be a valid (local) representation of the I-V curve and that the noise be sufficiently well characterized. Using more data points often has the advantage of lowering the uncertainty. However, more data points can make the uncertainty in the fit arbitrarily small, and this fit uncertainty misses the dominant residual uncertainty due to so-called model discrepancy. Using objective Bayesian linear regression for straight-line fits for Isc, we investigate an evidence-based method to automatically choose data windows of I-V points with reduced model discrepancy. We also investigate noise effects. Uncertainties, aligned with the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM), are quantified throughout.

  4. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Krnv, Lone; Driscoll, Patrick

    2013-11-15

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies reduction and resilience, denying, ignoring and postponing. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty.

  5. Arctic Economics Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1995-03-01

    AEM (Arctic Economics Model) for oil and gas was developed to provide an analytic framework for understanding the arctic area resources. It provides the capacity for integrating the resource and technology information gathered by the arctic research and development (R&D) program, measuring the benefits of alternaive R&D programs, and providing updated estimates of the future oil and gas potential from arctic areas. AEM enables the user to examine field or basin-level oil and gas recovery,more » costs, and economics. It provides a standard set of selected basin-specified input values or allows the user to input their own values. AEM consists of five integrated submodels: geologic/resource submodel, which distributes the arctic resource into 15 master regions, consisting of nine arctic offshore regions, three arctic onshore regions, and three souhtern Alaska (non-arctic) regions; technology submodel, which selects the most appropriate exploration and production structure (platform) for each arctic basin and water depth; oil and gas production submodel, which contains the relationship of per well recovery as a function of field size, production decline curves, and production decline curves by product; engineering costing and field development submodel, which develops the capital and operating costs associated with arctic oil and gas development; and the economics submodel, which captures the engineering costs and development timing and links these to oil and gas prices, corporate taxes and tax credits, depreciation, and timing of investment. AEM provides measures of producible oil and gas, costs, and ecomonic viability under alternative technology or financial conditions.« less

  6. Nuclear Data Uncertainty Propagation in Depletion Calculations Using Cross Section Uncertainties in One-group or Multi-group

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Díez, C.J.; Cabellos, O.; Martínez, J.S.

    2015-01-15

    Several approaches have been developed in last decades to tackle nuclear data uncertainty propagation problems of burn-up calculations. One approach proposed was the Hybrid Method, where uncertainties in nuclear data are propagated only on the depletion part of a burn-up problem. Because only depletion is addressed, only one-group cross sections are necessary, and hence, their collapsed one-group uncertainties. This approach has been applied successfully in several advanced reactor systems like EFIT (ADS-like reactor) or ESFR (Sodium fast reactor) to assess uncertainties on the isotopic composition. However, a comparison with using multi-group energy structures was not carried out, and has to be performed in order to analyse the limitations of using one-group uncertainties.

  7. GE Global Research News | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Newsroom Our technologies transform GE's businesses and the world. Learn about them, meet our experts and read news coverage about our work. Home > Newsroom Meet Our Experts Our scientists are global leaders in their fields. They welcome media inquiries. Find an Expert » Media Contacts A photograph of Natalia Albuquerque Rio de Janeiro Natalia Albuquerque +55 21 3548-6193 A photograph of Todd Alhart Niskayuna, Oklahoma City, Munich Todd Alhart +1.518.387.7914 A photograph of Laura Bauer

  8. GE Global Research News | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Newsroom Our technologies transform GE's businesses and the world. Learn about them, meet our experts and read news coverage about our work. Home > Newsroom Meet Our Experts Our scientists are global leaders in their fields. They welcome media inquiries. Find an Expert » Media Contacts A photograph of Natalia Albuquerque Rio de Janeiro Natalia Albuquerque +55 21 3548-6193 A photograph of Todd Alhart Niskayuna, Oklahoma City, Munich Todd Alhart +1.518.387.7914 A photograph of Laura Bauer

  9. Privatization and the globalization of energy markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-10-01

    This report reviews recent global efforts to privatize energy resources and outlines the opportunities and challenges privatization has presented to U.S. and foreign multinational energy companies. The group of energy companies studied in this report includes the major U.S. petroleum companies and many foreign companies. The foreign companies reviewed include state-run energy enterprises, recently privatized energy enterprises, and foreign multinationals that have been privately held. The privatization of non-petroleum energy industries, such as electricity generation and transmission, natural gas transmission, and coal mining, are also discussed. Overseas investments made by electric companies, natural gas companies, and coal companies are included. The report is organized into six chapters: (1) economics of privatization; (2) petroleum privatization efforts among non-U.S. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development nations; (3) petroleum privatization efforts in Latin America; (4) privatization in socialist and former socialist regimes; (5) privatization efforts in global electric power generation, transmission, and distribution industries; and (6) privatization and globalization of world coal.

  10. Photonics | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Home > Impact > The Photonics Lab at GE Global Research Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window) Share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Click to share (Opens in new window) Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window) The Photonics Lab at GE Global Research Loucas Tsakalakos, the Photonics lab manager at GE Global Research, introduces photonics and shares the lab's work on innovative ways to use light. You Might Also Like

  11. Strategies for Application of Isotopic Uncertainties in Burnup Credit

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gauld, I.C.

    2002-12-23

    Uncertainties in the predicted isotopic concentrations in spent nuclear fuel represent one of the largest sources of overall uncertainty in criticality calculations that use burnup credit. The methods used to propagate the uncertainties in the calculated nuclide concentrations to the uncertainty in the predicted neutron multiplication factor (k{sub eff}) of the system can have a significant effect on the uncertainty in the safety margin in criticality calculations and ultimately affect the potential capacity of spent fuel transport and storage casks employing burnup credit. Methods that can provide a more accurate and realistic estimate of the uncertainty may enable increased spent fuel cask capacity and fewer casks needing to be transported, thereby reducing regulatory burden on licensee while maintaining safety for transporting spent fuel. This report surveys several different best-estimate strategies for considering the effects of nuclide uncertainties in burnup-credit analyses. The potential benefits of these strategies are illustrated for a prototypical burnup-credit cask design. The subcritical margin estimated using best-estimate methods is discussed in comparison to the margin estimated using conventional bounding methods of uncertainty propagation. To quantify the comparison, each of the strategies for estimating uncertainty has been performed using a common database of spent fuel isotopic assay measurements for pressurized-light-water reactor fuels and predicted nuclide concentrations obtained using the current version of the SCALE code system. The experimental database applied in this study has been significantly expanded to include new high-enrichment and high-burnup spent fuel assay data recently published for a wide range of important burnup-credit actinides and fission products. Expanded rare earth fission-product measurements performed at the Khlopin Radium Institute in Russia that contain the only known publicly-available measurement for {sup 103

  12. Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wells, C.

    1992-10-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis? It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment`s final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis? A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

  13. Calibration and Measurement Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Habte, A.; Sengupta, M.; Reda, I.; Andreas, A.; Konings, J.

    2014-11-01

    Evaluating the performance of photovoltaic cells, modules, and arrays that form large solar deployments relies on accurate measurements of the available solar resource. Therefore, determining the accuracy of these solar radiation measurements provides a better understanding of investment risks. This paper provides guidelines and recommended procedures for estimating the uncertainty in calibrations and measurements by radiometers using methods that follow the International Bureau of Weights and Measures Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty (GUM). Standardized analysis based on these procedures ensures that the uncertainty quoted is well documented.

  14. Variables Affecting Economic Development of Wind Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Tegen, S.

    2008-02-01

    Report on the specific factors driving wind-power-related economic development and on the impact of specific economic development variables on new wind project economic benefits.

  15. Global Cool Cities Alliance

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Department of Energy (DOE) is currently supporting the Global Cool Cities Alliance (GCCA), a non-profit organization that works with cities, regions, and national governments to speed the...

  16. Fast Global File Status

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2013-01-01

    Fast Global File Status (FGFS) is a system software package that implimints a scalable mechanism to retrieve file information, such as its degree of distribution or replication and consistency.

  17. 8th Global warming international conference and exposition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-12-31

    Abstracts are presented from The 8th Annual Global Warming international conference and expo. Topics centered around greenhouse gas emission and disposal methods, policy and economics, carbon budget, and resource management. Individual reports have been processed separately for the United States Department of Energy databases.

  18. Nuclear energy density functionals: What we can learn about/from their global performance?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Afanasjev, A. V.; Agbemava, S. E.; Ray, D.; Ring, P.

    2014-10-15

    A short review of recent results on the global performance of covariant energy density functionals is presented. It is focused on an analysis of the accuracy of the description of physical observables of ground and excited states as well as to related theoretical uncertainties. In addition, a global analysis of pairing properties is presented and the impact of pairing on the position of two-neutron drip line is discussed.

  19. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Participated in the 2013 Domenici Public Policy Conference Carbon Capture & Storage, Carbon Storage, Climate, Earth Sciences Research Center, Energy, Global Climate & Energy, Global Climate & Energy, News, News & Events, Systems Analysis, Systems Engineering, Water Security Sandia Participated in the 2013 Domenici Public Policy Conference Marianne Walck, Director of Sandia's Geoscience, Climate, and Consequence Effects Center, spoke on "Hydraulic Fracturing: The Role

  20. Moving | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Moving We're always working on planes, trains and automobiles-and specialized ways to move people and products efficiently and sustainably. Home > Impact > Moving Rail Networks Are Getting Smarter Sources: 2012 GE Annual Report (page 12); Norfolk Southern 2010 sustainability reporter (page 17) North American Freight Railroad... Read More » The GE Store for Technology is Open for Business Welcome to GE Global Research, also known as the GE Store for Technology. Across our global network of

  1. Curing | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Curing We're pioneering medical developments, from robotic healthcare assistants to diagnostic tools and specialized, globally deployed gear. Home > Impact > Curing Crowdsourcing Software Platform Wins Award GE Global Research, the technology development arm of the General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) today announced that it has won a... Read More » GE Unveils High-Tech Superhero, GENIUS MAN Created on earth to inspire the next generation of scientists and engineers, a team of GE

  2. Global Renewable Power International Global RPI | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    to: navigation, search Name: Global Renewable Power International (Global RPI) Place: Spain Sector: Wind energy Product: Spain-based developer of wind projects in Poland, Croatia...

  3. Before House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Testimony of Jonathan Elkind, Acting Assistant Secretary, Office of International Affairs Before House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International ...

  4. Managing Model Data Introduced Uncertainties in Simulator Predictions for Generation IV Systems via Optimum Experimental Design

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Turinsky, Paul J; Abdel-Khalik, Hany S; Stover, Tracy E

    2011-03-31

    An optimization technique has been developed to select optimized experimental design specifications to produce data specifically designed to be assimilated to optimize a given reactor concept. Data from the optimized experiment is assimilated to generate posteriori uncertainties on the reactor concept’s core attributes from which the design responses are computed. The reactor concept is then optimized with the new data to realize cost savings by reducing margin. The optimization problem iterates until an optimal experiment is found to maximize the savings. A new generation of innovative nuclear reactor designs, in particular fast neutron spectrum recycle reactors, are being considered for the application of closing the nuclear fuel cycle in the future. Safe and economical design of these reactors will require uncertainty reduction in basic nuclear data which are input to the reactor design. These data uncertainty propagate to design responses which in turn require the reactor designer to incorporate additional safety margin into the design, which often increases the cost of the reactor. Therefore basic nuclear data needs to be improved and this is accomplished through experimentation. Considering the high cost of nuclear experiments, it is desired to have an optimized experiment which will provide the data needed for uncertainty reduction such that a reactor design concept can meet its target accuracies or to allow savings to be realized by reducing the margin required due to uncertainty propagated from basic nuclear data. However, this optimization is coupled to the reactor design itself because with improved data the reactor concept can be re-optimized itself. It is thus desired to find the experiment that gives the best optimized reactor design. Methods are first established to model both the reactor concept and the experiment and to efficiently propagate the basic nuclear data uncertainty through these models to outputs. The representativity of the experiment

  5. Geothermal District Heating Economics

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1995-07-12

    GEOCITY is a large-scale simulation model which combines both engineering and economic submodels to systematically calculate the cost of geothermal district heating systems for space heating, hot-water heating, and process heating based upon hydrothermal geothermal resources. The GEOCITY program simulates the entire production, distribution, and waste disposal process for geothermal district heating systems, but does not include the cost of radiators, convectors, or other in-house heating systems. GEOCITY calculates the cost of district heating basedmore » on the climate, population, and heat demand of the district; characteristics of the geothermal resource and distance from the distribution center; well-drilling costs; design of the distribution system; tax rates; and financial conditions.« less

  6. Economics of Alaska North Slope gas utilization options

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, C.P.; Doughty, T.C.; Hackworth, J.H.; North, W.B.; Robertson, E.P.

    1996-08-01

    The recoverable natural gas available for sale in the developed and known undeveloped fields on the Alaskan North Slope (ANS) total about 26 trillion cubic feet (TCF), including 22 TCF in the Prudhoe Bay Unit (PBU) and 3 TCF in the undeveloped Point Thomson Unit (PTU). No significant commercial use has been made of this large natural gas resource because there are no facilities in place to transport this gas to current markets. To date the economics have not been favorable to support development of a gas transportation system. However, with the declining trend in ANS oil production, interest in development of this huge gas resource is rising, making it important for the U.S. Department of Energy, industry, and the State of Alaska to evaluate and assess the options for development of this vast gas resource. The purpose of this study was to assess whether gas-to-liquids (GTL) conversion technology would be an economic alternative for the development and sale of the large, remote, and currently unmarketable ANS natural gas resource, and to compare the long term economic impact of a GTL conversion option to that of the more frequently discussed natural gas pipeline/liquefied natural gas (LNG) option. The major components of the study are: an assessment of the ANS oil and gas resources; an analysis of conversion and transportation options; a review of natural gas, LNG, and selected oil product markets; and an economic analysis of the LNG and GTL gas sales options based on publicly available input needed for assumptions of the economic variables. Uncertainties in assumptions are evaluated by determining the sensitivity of project economics to changes in baseline economic variables.

  7. Global repowering opportunities for biomass

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Demeter, C.P.; Gray, E.E.; Lindsey, C.A.

    1996-12-31

    Global demand for electricity is growing during a time of significant structural change in electric markets. Many countries are creating more competitive markets for power production and sales through regulation and ownership structure. Governments are reducing monopolies, enhancing competition and unbundling electricity services. Equipment suppliers, developers, and service providers are expanding into the global market. Meeting future electric energy needs has forced the power community to examine alternatives to Greenfield Development. Repowering existing facilities to gain a competitive advantage is a promising option. Repowering has the potential to offer increased capacity, heat rate reductions, and improved environmental profiles in a manner consistent with an asset and capital deployment rationalization strategy that appears to characterize the future of the power industry. It is also a defensive strategy for extending the life of existing assets. The breadth of repowering options continues to expand as technologies are introduced to increase plant capacities, efficiencies or both. Some options such as feedwater heater repowering appear to offer advantages to repowering with biomass fuels as an alternative to natural gas projects. By repowering solid fueled facilities, developed and developing countries can receive multiple benefits. Most developing countries are largely agrarian with traditional policies that have relied on trickle-down rural development. By turning agricultural and forestry by-products into commodities, farmers and foresters can benefit from a sustainable source of income. As power demand and biomass requirements are expanded to a regional scale, the government can reduce some agricultural subsidies and shift that money to other economically and socially beneficial programs. Furthermore, rural development can minimize rural-to-urban flight and thus lessen the strain on already overburdened urban infrastructure.

  8. Integration of Uncertainty Information into Power System Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Lu, Shuai; Samaan, Nader A.; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Hafen, Ryan P.; Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Ning

    2011-10-10

    Contemporary power systems face uncertainties coming from multiple sources, including forecast errors of load, wind and solar generation, uninstructed deviation and forced outage of traditional generators, loss of transmission lines, and others. With increasing amounts of wind and solar generation being integrated into the system, these uncertainties have been growing significantly. It is critical important to build knowledge of major sources of uncertainty, learn how to simulate them, and then incorporate this information into the decision-making processes and power system operations, for better reliability and efficiency. This paper gives a comprehensive view on the sources of uncertainty in power systems, important characteristics, available models, and ways of their integration into system operations. It is primarily based on previous works conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL).

  9. Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty - A Joint CEC/USNRC Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gregory, Julie J.; Harper, Frederick T.

    1999-07-28

    The joint USNRC/CEC consequence uncertainty study was chartered after the development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS in the U.S. and COSYMA in Europe. Both the USNRC and CEC had a vested interest in expanding the knowledge base of the uncertainty associated with consequence modeling, and teamed up to co-sponsor a consequence uncertainty study. The information acquired from the study was expected to provide understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of current models as well as a basis for direction of future research. This paper looks at the elicitation process implemented in the joint study and discusses some of the uncertainty distributions provided by eight panels of experts from the U.S. and Europe that were convened to provide responses to the elicitation. The phenomenological areas addressed by the expert panels include atmospheric dispersion and deposition, deposited material and external doses, food chain, early health effects, late health effects and internal dosimetry.

  10. Dasymetric Modeling and Uncertainty (Journal Article) | SciTech...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: Dasymetric Modeling and Uncertainty Citation Details In-Document Search ... DOE Contract Number: DE-AC05-00OR22725 Resource Type: Journal Article Resource Relation: ...

  11. Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: A Strategy...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Uncertainty Analysis and Parameter Estimation Since 2002 To view all the P&RA CoP ... Update of Hydrogen from Biomass - Determination of the Delivered Cost of Hydrogen: ...

  12. Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    in the multi-rate model to simualte U(VI) desorption; 3) however, long-term prediction and its uncertainty may be significantly biased by the lognormal assumption for the ...

  13. Problem Solving Environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2011-10-26

    PSUADE is an software system that is used to study the releationships between the inputs and outputs of gerneral simulation models for the purpose of performing uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on simulation models.

  14. Calculating impacts of energy standards on energy demand in U.S. buildings with uncertainty in an integrated assessment model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Hathaway, John E.; Lansing, Carina S.; Liu, Ying; McJeon, Haewon C.; Moss, Richard H.; Patel, Pralit L.; Peterson, Marty J.; Rice, Jennie S.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2015-10-01

    In this paper, an integrated assessment model (IAM) uses a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The paper finds that aggressive building-energy codes and equipment standards are an effective, cost-saving way to reduce energy consumption in buildings and greenhouse gas emissions in U.S. states. This conclusion is robust to significant uncertainties in population, economic activity, climate, carbon prices, and technology performance and costs.

  15. Gas Exploration Software for Reducing Uncertainty in Gas Concentration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Estimates - Energy Innovation Portal Energy Analysis Energy Analysis Find More Like This Return to Search Gas Exploration Software for Reducing Uncertainty in Gas Concentration Estimates Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Contact LBL About This Technology Technology Marketing SummaryEstimating reservoir parameters for gas exploration from geophysical data is subject to a large degree of uncertainty. Seismic imaging techniques, such as seismic amplitude versus angle (AVA) analysis, can

  16. Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Technical Report: Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Improvements of Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling Authors: Talou, Patrick [1] ; Nazarewicz, Witold [2] ; Prinja, Anil [3] ; Danon, Yaron [4] + Show Author Affiliations Los Alamos National Laboratory University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA University of New Mexico, USA Rensselaer

  17. PROJECT PROFILE: Reducing PV Performance Uncertainty by Accurately

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Quantifying the "PV Resource" | Department of Energy Reducing PV Performance Uncertainty by Accurately Quantifying the "PV Resource" PROJECT PROFILE: Reducing PV Performance Uncertainty by Accurately Quantifying the "PV Resource" Funding Opportunity: SuNLaMP SunShot Subprogram: Photovoltaics Location: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO Amount Awarded: $2,500,000 The procedures used today for prediction of the solar resource available to

  18. Direct Aerosol Forcing: Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Measurements of

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Aerosol Optical and Situational Properties Direct Aerosol Forcing: Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Measurements of Aerosol Optical and Situational Properties McComiskey, Allison CIRES / NOAA Schwartz, Stephen Brookhaven National Laboratory Ricchiazzi, Paul University of California, Santa Barbara Lewis, Ernie Brookhaven National Laboratory Michalsky, Joseph DOC/NOAA/OAR/ESRL/GMD Ogren, John NOAA/CMDL Category: Radiation Understanding sources of uncertainty in estimating aerosol direct radiative

  19. Practical uncertainty reduction and quantification in shock physics measurements

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Akin, M. C.; Nguyen, J. H.

    2015-04-20

    We report the development of a simple error analysis sampling method for identifying intersections and inflection points to reduce total uncertainty in experimental data. This technique was used to reduce uncertainties in sound speed measurements by 80% over conventional methods. Here, we focused on its impact on a previously published set of Mo sound speed data and possible implications for phase transition and geophysical studies. However, this technique's application can be extended to a wide range of experimental data.

  20. Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    October 2009 1 October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 Summary It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy- related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the market- clearing process

  1. Uncertainties in the Anti-neutrino Production at Nuclear Reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Djurcic, Zelimir; Detwiler, Jason A.; Piepke, Andreas; Foster Jr., Vince R.; Miller, Lester; Gratta, Giorgio

    2008-08-06

    Anti-neutrino emission rates from nuclear reactors are determined from thermal power measurements and fission rate calculations. The uncertainties in these quantities for commercial power plants and their impact on the calculated interaction rates in {bar {nu}}{sub e} detectors is examined. We discuss reactor-to-reactor correlations between the leading uncertainties, and their relevance to reactor {bar {nu}}{sub e} experiments.

  2. Quantifying Uncertainty in Computer Predictions | netl.doe.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Quantifying Uncertainty in Computer Predictions Quantifying Uncertainty in Computer Model Predictions The U.S. Department of Energy has great interest in technologies that will lead to reducing the CO2 emissions of fossil-fuel-burning power plants. Advanced energy technologies such as Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) can potentially lead to the clean and efficient use of fossil fuels to power our nation. The development of new energy

  3. Analysis of the Uncertainty in Wind Measurements from the Atmospheric

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Radiation Measurement Doppler Lidar during XPIA: Field Campaign Report (Program Document) | SciTech Connect Program Document: Analysis of the Uncertainty in Wind Measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Doppler Lidar during XPIA: Field Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Analysis of the Uncertainty in Wind Measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Doppler Lidar during XPIA: Field Campaign Report In March and April of 2015, the ARM Doppler

  4. Determining Best Estimates and Uncertainties in Cloud Microphysical

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Parameters from ARM Field Data: Implications for Models, Retrieval Schemes and Aerosol-Cloud-Radiation Interactions (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Determining Best Estimates and Uncertainties in Cloud Microphysical Parameters from ARM Field Data: Implications for Models, Retrieval Schemes and Aerosol-Cloud-Radiation Interactions Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Determining Best Estimates and Uncertainties in Cloud Microphysical Parameters from ARM Field Data: Implications for

  5. Lab RFP: Validation and Uncertainty Characterization | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Validation and Uncertainty Characterization Lab RFP: Validation and Uncertainty Characterization LBNL's FLEXLAB test facility, which includes four test cells each split into two half-cells to enable side-by-side comparative experiments. The cells have one active, reconfigurable facade, and individual, reconfigurable single-zone HVAC systems. The cell facing the camera sits on 270 degree turntable. Photo credit: LBNL. Bottom: ORNL's two-story flexible research platform test building. The building

  6. ARM - Lesson Plans: Global Warming

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Global Warming Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global ...

  7. Perihelion Global | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Perihelion Global Jump to: navigation, search Name: Perihelion Global Place: Port Jefferson, New York Zip: 11776 Product: A company focused on the acquisition, development and...

  8. Fuzzy-probabilistic calculations of water-balance uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Faybishenko, B.

    2009-10-01

    Hydrogeological systems are often characterized by imprecise, vague, inconsistent, incomplete, or subjective information, which may limit the application of conventional stochastic methods in predicting hydrogeologic conditions and associated uncertainty. Instead, redictions and uncertainty analysis can be made using uncertain input parameters expressed as probability boxes, intervals, and fuzzy numbers. The objective of this paper is to present the theory for, and a case study as an application of, the fuzzyprobabilistic approach, ombining probability and possibility theory for simulating soil water balance and assessing associated uncertainty in the components of a simple waterbalance equation. The application of this approach is demonstrated using calculations with the RAMAS Risk Calc code, to ssess the propagation of uncertainty in calculating potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and infiltration-in a case study at the Hanford site, Washington, USA. Propagation of uncertainty into the results of water-balance calculations was evaluated by hanging he types of models of uncertainty incorporated into various input parameters. The results of these fuzzy-probabilistic calculations are compared to the conventional Monte Carlo simulation approach and estimates from field observations at the Hanford site.

  9. Uncertainty Estimation Improves Energy Measurement and Verification Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Walter, Travis; Price, Phillip N.; Sohn, Michael D.

    2014-05-14

    Implementing energy conservation measures in buildings can reduce energy costs and environmental impacts, but such measures cost money to implement so intelligent investment strategies require the ability to quantify the energy savings by comparing actual energy used to how much energy would have been used in absence of the conservation measures (known as the baseline energy use). Methods exist for predicting baseline energy use, but a limitation of most statistical methods reported in the literature is inadequate quantification of the uncertainty in baseline energy use predictions. However, estimation of uncertainty is essential for weighing the risks of investing in retrofits. Most commercial buildings have, or soon will have, electricity meters capable of providing data at short time intervals. These data provide new opportunities to quantify uncertainty in baseline predictions, and to do so after shorter measurement durations than are traditionally used. In this paper, we show that uncertainty estimation provides greater measurement and verification (M&V) information and helps to overcome some of the difficulties with deciding how much data is needed to develop baseline models and to confirm energy savings. We also show that cross-validation is an effective method for computing uncertainty. In so doing, we extend a simple regression-based method of predicting energy use using short-interval meter data. We demonstrate the methods by predicting energy use in 17 real commercial buildings. We discuss the benefits of uncertainty estimates which can provide actionable decision making information for investing in energy conservation measures.

  10. SRS Economic Impact Study - SRSCRO

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SRS Economic Impact Study The operations at Savannah River Site (SRS) create jobs, generate income, and contribute to the tax revenues across both South Carolina and Georgia. When economic multipliers are factored in, the economic ripple effect is enormous. Despite its significance in recent years, there has been little understanding beyond qualitative observations about the value of SRS's contributions to the region and what that impact means in quantifiable terms. Consequently, the SRSCRO

  11. Consider Installing a Condensing Economizer

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This tip sheet summarizes the benefits of condensing economizers and is part of a series of tip sheets on how to optimize an industrial steam system.

  12. The Economics of Micro Grids

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Blink-less UPS Go Electric Energy Arbitrage Energy Optimization Peak shaving Demand Response & Aggregation FACILITIES UTILITIES 4 Micro Grid Economics: 2 Examples Go Electric ...

  13. economic hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    economic hydrogen fuel cell vehicles - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future ...

  14. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of 1-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season.

  15. Impacts of Variability and Uncertainty in Solar Photovoltaic Generation at Multiple Timescales

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ela, E.; Diakov, V.; Ibanez, E.; Heaney, M.

    2013-05-01

    The characteristics of variability and uncertainty of PV solar power have been studied extensively. These characteristics can create challenges for system operators who must ensure a balance between generation and demand while obeying power system constraints at the lowest possible cost. A number of studies have looked at the impact of wind power plants, and some recent studies have also included solar PV. The simulations that are used in these studies, however, are typically fixed to one time resolution. This makes it difficult to analyze the variability across several timescales. In this study, we use a simulation tool that has the ability to evaluate both the economic and reliability impacts of PV variability and uncertainty at multiple timescales. This information should help system operators better prepare for increases of PV on their systems and develop improved mitigation strategies to better integrate PV with enhanced reliability. Another goal of this study is to understand how different mitigation strategies and methods can improve the integration of solar power more reliably and efficiently.

  16. Executive summary for assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Reinert, Rhonda K.; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-04-01

    Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-model ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.

  17. Magnetic fusion reactor economics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1995-12-01

    An almost primordial trend in the conversion and use of energy is an increased complexity and cost of conversion systems designed to utilize cheaper and more-abundant fuels; this trend is exemplified by the progression fossil fission {yields} fusion. The present projections of the latter indicate that capital costs of the fusion ``burner`` far exceed any commensurate savings associated with the cheapest and most-abundant of fuels. These projections suggest competitive fusion power only if internal costs associate with the use of fossil or fission fuels emerge to make them either uneconomic, unacceptable, or both with respect to expensive fusion systems. This ``implementation-by-default`` plan for fusion is re-examined by identifying in general terms fusion power-plant embodiments that might compete favorably under conditions where internal costs (both economic and environmental) of fossil and/or fission are not as great as is needed to justify the contemporary vision for fusion power. Competitive fusion power in this context will require a significant broadening of an overly focused program to explore the physics and simbiotic technologies leading to more compact, simplified, and efficient plasma-confinement configurations that reside at the heart of an attractive fusion power plant.

  18. U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration 48% 24% 52% 76% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% All jobs STEM jobs Men Women By David Beede, Tiffany Julian, David Langdon, George McKittrick, Beethika Khan, and Mark Doms, Office of the Chief Economist Women in STEM: A Gender Gap to Innovation August 2011 Executive Summary ESA Issue Brief #04-11 O ur science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) workforce is crucial to America's innovative capacity and global competitiveness. Yet women are vastly

  19. International issues in energy policy, development, and economics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dorian, J.P.; Fesharaki, F.

    1994-01-01

    Events in the international oil market have shaped energy policies in both developed and developing countries for the last two decades. This collection of 19 articles explores this situation. The articles are grouped under three headings: Global Markets and Policy, Energy Issues and Trends, and Economic development. The focus of the articles is on specific topics such as reformulated gasoline, neoclassical growth theory and energy conservation with a limited focus on the broady picture of the world's energy problems and prospects.

  20. COVER PLACEHOLDER Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: Climate Change, Economic

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    PLACEHOLDER Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: Climate Change, Economic Competitiveness, and Energy Security August 2016 U.S. Department of Energy SUMMARY Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies provide a key pathway to address the urgent U.S. and global need for affordable, secure, resilient, and reliable sources of clean energy. In the United States, fossil fuel-fired power plants account for 30% of total U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and will continue to be a

  1. Modeling international cooperation for the global environmental problematique

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sadeh, E.

    1997-12-31

    The focus of this study is on international cooperative decision-making related to global change issues concerning stratospheric ozone depletion and global climate warming. Such anthropogenic alteration of the Earth`s biosphere has given rise to a global environmental problematique that is demarcated by two dimensions. The first dimension is that global environmental Issues are demarcated by international environmental commons. Commons are defined as physical or biological systems that lie outside the jurisdiction of any individual state and are valued environmental resources globally. A second dimension pertains to tile collective action problem which results from a {open_quotes}tragedy of the commons.{close_quotes} According to traditional realist conception of international relations, that states behave in their rational self-interest, a {open_quotes}tragedy of the commons{close_quotes} ensues. The tragedy is a function of damage to the global environment, such as the production of economic resources that release greenhouse gases into the Earth`s biosphere, that is nonappropriable. Commons resources relative to the Earth`s biosphere are not limitless. At issue, is the realization of sustainable economic development promoted by cooperative political patterns that mitigate the negative consequences of this tragedy.

  2. Economic analysis of small-scale fuel alcohol plants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schafer, J.J. Jr.

    1980-01-01

    To plan Department of Energy support programs, it is essential to understand the fundamental economics of both the large industrial size plants and the small on-farm size alcohol plants. EG and G Idaho, Inc., has designed a 25 gallon per hour anhydrous ethanol plant for the Department of Energy's Alcohol Fuels Office. This is a state-of-the-art reference plant, which will demonstrate the cost and performance of currently available equipment. The objective of this report is to examine the economics of the EG and G small-scale alcohol plant design and to determine the conditions under which a farm plant is a financially sound investment. The reference EG and G Small-Scale Plant is estimated to cost $400,000. Given the baseline conditions defined in this report, it is calculated that this plant will provide an annual after-tax of return on equity of 15%, with alcohol selling at $1.62 per gallon. It is concluded that this plant is an excellent investment in today's market, where 200 proof ethanol sells for between $1.80 and $2.00 per gallon. The baseline conditions which have a significant effect on the economics include plant design parameters, cost estimates, financial assumptions and economic forecasts. Uncertainty associated with operational variables will be eliminated when EG and G's reference plant begins operation in the fall of 1980. Plant operation will verify alcohol yield per bushel of corn, labor costs, maintenance costs, plant availability and by-product value.

  3. Uncertainty quantification of CO₂ saturation estimated from electrical resistance tomography data at the Cranfield site

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yang, Xianjin; Chen, Xiao; Carrigan, Charles R.; Ramirez, Abelardo L.

    2014-06-03

    A parametric bootstrap approach is presented for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CO₂ saturation derived from electrical resistance tomography (ERT) data collected at the Cranfield, Mississippi (USA) carbon sequestration site. There are many sources of uncertainty in ERT-derived CO₂ saturation, but we focus on how the ERT observation errors propagate to the estimated CO₂ saturation in a nonlinear inversion process. Our UQ approach consists of three steps. We first estimated the observational errors from a large number of reciprocal ERT measurements. The second step was to invert the pre-injection baseline data and the resulting resistivity tomograph was used as the priormore » information for nonlinear inversion of time-lapse data. We assigned a 3% random noise to the baseline model. Finally, we used a parametric bootstrap method to obtain bootstrap CO₂ saturation samples by deterministically solving a nonlinear inverse problem many times with resampled data and resampled baseline models. Then the mean and standard deviation of CO₂ saturation were calculated from the bootstrap samples. We found that the maximum standard deviation of CO₂ saturation was around 6% with a corresponding maximum saturation of 30% for a data set collected 100 days after injection began. There was no apparent spatial correlation between the mean and standard deviation of CO₂ saturation but the standard deviation values increased with time as the saturation increased. The uncertainty in CO₂ saturation also depends on the ERT reciprocal error threshold used to identify and remove noisy data and inversion constraints such as temporal roughness. Five hundred realizations requiring 3.5 h on a single 12-core node were needed for the nonlinear Monte Carlo inversion to arrive at stationary variances while the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) stochastic inverse approach may expend days for a global search. This indicates that UQ of 2D or 3D ERT inverse problems can be performed

  4. Uncertainty quantification of CO₂ saturation estimated from electrical resistance tomography data at the Cranfield site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yang, Xianjin; Chen, Xiao; Carrigan, Charles R.; Ramirez, Abelardo L.

    2014-06-03

    A parametric bootstrap approach is presented for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CO₂ saturation derived from electrical resistance tomography (ERT) data collected at the Cranfield, Mississippi (USA) carbon sequestration site. There are many sources of uncertainty in ERT-derived CO₂ saturation, but we focus on how the ERT observation errors propagate to the estimated CO₂ saturation in a nonlinear inversion process. Our UQ approach consists of three steps. We first estimated the observational errors from a large number of reciprocal ERT measurements. The second step was to invert the pre-injection baseline data and the resulting resistivity tomograph was used as the prior information for nonlinear inversion of time-lapse data. We assigned a 3% random noise to the baseline model. Finally, we used a parametric bootstrap method to obtain bootstrap CO₂ saturation samples by deterministically solving a nonlinear inverse problem many times with resampled data and resampled baseline models. Then the mean and standard deviation of CO₂ saturation were calculated from the bootstrap samples. We found that the maximum standard deviation of CO₂ saturation was around 6% with a corresponding maximum saturation of 30% for a data set collected 100 days after injection began. There was no apparent spatial correlation between the mean and standard deviation of CO₂ saturation but the standard deviation values increased with time as the saturation increased. The uncertainty in CO₂ saturation also depends on the ERT reciprocal error threshold used to identify and remove noisy data and inversion constraints such as temporal roughness. Five hundred realizations requiring 3.5 h on a single 12-core node were needed for the nonlinear Monte Carlo inversion to arrive at stationary variances while the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) stochastic inverse approach may expend days for a global search. This indicates that UQ of 2D or 3D ERT inverse problems can be performed on a

  5. Timeline | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Global Research Over Time From our earliest days, we've been changing the landscape in commercial science and technology. Explore our inventions' evolution. Home > Global Research Over Time Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window) Share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Click to share (Opens in new window) Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window) Warning: You must have JavaScript enabled in your browser in order to use this

  6. A Method to Estimate Uncertainty in Radiometric Measurement Using the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) Method; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Habte, A.; Sengupta, M.; Reda, I.

    2015-03-01

    Radiometric data with known and traceable uncertainty is essential for climate change studies to better understand cloud radiation interactions and the earth radiation budget. Further, adopting a known and traceable method of estimating uncertainty with respect to SI ensures that the uncertainty quoted for radiometric measurements can be compared based on documented methods of derivation.Therefore, statements about the overall measurement uncertainty can only be made on an individual basis, taking all relevant factors into account. This poster provides guidelines and recommended procedures for estimating the uncertainty in calibrations and measurements from radiometers. The approach follows the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM). derivation.Therefore, statements about the overall measurement uncertainty can only be made on an individual basis, taking all relevant factors into account. This poster provides guidelines and recommended procedures for estimating the uncertainty in calibrations and measurements from radiometers. The approach follows the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM).

  7. Can Advances in Science and Technology Prevent Global Warming? A Critical Review of Limitations and Challenges

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huesemann, Michael H.

    2006-07-03

    The most stringent emission scenarios published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would result in the stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) at concentrations of approximately 550 ppm which would produce a global temperature increase of at least 2 C by 2100. Given the large uncertainties regarding the potential risks associated with this degree of global warming, it would be more prudent to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations at or below current levels which, in turn, would require a greater than 20-fold reduction (i.e., ?95%) in per capita carbon emissions in industrialized nations within the next 50 to 100 years. Using the Kaya equation as a conceptual framework, this paper examines whether CO2 mitigation approaches such as energy efficiency improvements, carbon sequestration, and the development of carbon-free energy sources would be sufficient to bring about the required reduction in per capita carbon emissions without creating unforeseen negative impacts elsewhere. In terms of energy efficiency, large improvements (?5-fold) are in principle possible given aggressive investments in R&D and if market imperfections such as corporate subsidies are removed. However, energy efficiency improvements per se will not result in a reduction in carbon emissions if, as predicted by the IPCC, the size of the global economy has expanded 12-26 fold by 2100. Terrestrial carbon sequestration via reforestation and improved agricultural soil management has many environmental advantages but has only limited CO2 mitigation potential because the global terrestrial carbon sink (ca. 200 Gt C) is small relative to the size of fossil fuel deposits (?4000 Gt C). By contrast, very large amounts of CO2 can potentially be removed from the atmosphere via sequestration in geologic formations and oceans, but carbon storage is not permanent and is likely to create many unpredictable environmental consequences. Renewable solar energy can in theory provide

  8. Covariant energymomentum and an uncertainty principle for general relativity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooperstock, F.I.; Dupre, M.J.

    2013-12-15

    We introduce a naturally-defined totally invariant spacetime energy expression for general relativity incorporating the contribution from gravity. The extension links seamlessly to the action integral for the gravitational field. The demand that the general expression for arbitrary systems reduces to the Tolman integral in the case of stationary bounded distributions, leads to the matter-localized Ricci integral for energymomentum in support of the energy localization hypothesis. The role of the observer is addressed and as an extension of the special relativistic case, the field of observers comoving with the matter is seen to compute the intrinsic global energy of a system. The new localized energy supports the Bonnor claim that the Szekeres collapsing dust solutions are energy-conserving. It is suggested that in the extreme of strong gravity, the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle be generalized in terms of spacetime energymomentum. -- Highlights: We present a totally invariant spacetime energy expression for general relativity incorporating the contribution from gravity. Demand for the general expression to reduce to the Tolman integral for stationary systems supports the Ricci integral as energymomentum. Localized energy via the Ricci integral is consistent with the energy localization hypothesis. New localized energy supports the Bonnor claim that the Szekeres collapsing dust solutions are energy-conserving. Suggest the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle be generalized in terms of spacetime energymomentum in strong gravity extreme.

  9. Competitive economics of nuclear power

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hellman, R.

    1981-03-02

    Some 12 components of a valid study of the competitive economics of a newly ordered nuclear power plant are identified and explicated. These are then used to adjust the original cost projections of four authoritative studies of nuclear and coal power economics.

  10. U.S. Government Supports Low Emission Economic Growth

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2015-11-01

    Countries around the world face the challenge of maintaining long-term sustainable economic growth and development under the threat of climate change. By identifying and pursuing a sustainable development pathway now, they are better positioned to reach their economic growth goals while addressing climate change impacts and lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Low emission development strategies - development plans that promote sustainable social and economic development while reducing long-term GHG emissions - provide a pathway to preparing for a global low emission future. Partner country governments are working with the U.S. government through the Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to further their national development objectives.

  11. Systematic uncertainties from halo asphericity in dark matter searches

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bernal, Nicols; Forero-Romero, Jaime E.; Garani, Raghuveer; Palomares-Ruiz, Sergio E-mail: je.forero@uniandes.edu.co E-mail: sergio.palomares.ruiz@ific.uv.es

    2014-09-01

    Although commonly assumed to be spherical, dark matter halos are predicted to be non-spherical by N-body simulations and their asphericity has a potential impact on the systematic uncertainties in dark matter searches. The evaluation of these uncertainties is the main aim of this work, where we study the impact of aspherical dark matter density distributions in Milky-Way-like halos on direct and indirect searches. Using data from the large N-body cosmological simulation Bolshoi, we perform a statistical analysis and quantify the systematic uncertainties on the determination of local dark matter density and the so-called J factors for dark matter annihilations and decays from the galactic center. We find that, due to our ignorance about the extent of the non-sphericity of the Milky Way dark matter halo, systematic uncertainties can be as large as 35%, within the 95% most probable region, for a spherically averaged value for the local density of 0.3-0.4 GeV/cm {sup 3}. Similarly, systematic uncertainties on the J factors evaluated around the galactic center can be as large as 10% and 15%, within the 95% most probable region, for dark matter annihilations and decays, respectively.

  12. Fuel cycle cost uncertainty from nuclear fuel cycle comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, J.; McNelis, D.; Yim, M.S.

    2013-07-01

    This paper examined the uncertainty in fuel cycle cost (FCC) calculation by considering both model and parameter uncertainty. Four different fuel cycle options were compared in the analysis including the once-through cycle (OT), the DUPIC cycle, the MOX cycle and a closed fuel cycle with fast reactors (FR). The model uncertainty was addressed by using three different FCC modeling approaches with and without the time value of money consideration. The relative ratios of FCC in comparison to OT did not change much by using different modeling approaches. This observation was consistent with the results of the sensitivity study for the discount rate. Two different sets of data with uncertainty range of unit costs were used to address the parameter uncertainty of the FCC calculation. The sensitivity study showed that the dominating contributor to the total variance of FCC is the uranium price. In general, the FCC of OT was found to be the lowest followed by FR, MOX, and DUPIC. But depending on the uranium price, the FR cycle was found to have lower FCC over OT. The reprocessing cost was also found to have a major impact on FCC.

  13. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CRF_climatechange Permalink Gallery Understanding Hazardous Combustion Byproducts Reduces Factors Impacting Climate Change CRF, Global Climate & Energy, News, News & Events, Transportation Energy Understanding Hazardous Combustion Byproducts Reduces Factors Impacting Climate Change By Micheal Padilla Researchers at Sandia's Combustion Research Facility are developing the understanding necessary to build cleaner combustion technologies that will in turn reduce climate impact. Their work

  14. Global fish production and climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brander, K.M.

    2007-12-11

    Current global fisheries production of {approx}160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but there is low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are giverned by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipiation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the pricipal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

  15. Future generations, environmental ethics, and global environmental change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tonn, B.E.

    1994-12-31

    The elements of a methodology to be employed by the global community to investigate the consequences of global environmental change upon future generations and global ecosystems are outlined in this paper. The methodology is comprised of two major components: A possible future worlds model; and a formal, citizen-oriented process to judge whether the possible future worlds potentially inheritable by future generations meet obligational standards. A broad array of descriptors of future worlds can be encompassed within this framework, including survival of ecosystems and other species and satisfaction of human concerns. The methodology expresses fundamental psychological motivations and human myths journey, renewal, mother earth, and being-in-nature-and incorporates several viewpoints on obligations to future generations-maintaining options, fairness, humility, and the cause of humanity. The methodology overcomes several severe drawbacks of the economic-based methods most commonly used for global environmental policy analysis.

  16. Uncertainty in Modeling Dust Mass Balance and Radiative Forcing from Size Parameterization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhao, Chun; Chen, Siyu; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun; Kok, Jasper; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Huang, J.

    2013-11-05

    This study examines the uncertainties in simulating mass balance and radiative forcing of mineral dust due to biases in the aerosol size parameterization. Simulations are conducted quasi-globally (180oW-180oE and 60oS-70oN) using the WRF24 Chem model with three different approaches to represent aerosol size distribution (8-bin, 4-bin, and 3-mode). The biases in the 3-mode or 4-bin approaches against a relatively more accurate 8-bin approach in simulating dust mass balance and radiative forcing are identified. Compared to the 8-bin approach, the 4-bin approach simulates similar but coarser size distributions of dust particles in the atmosphere, while the 3-mode pproach retains more fine dust particles but fewer coarse dust particles due to its prescribed og of each mode. Although the 3-mode approach yields up to 10 days longer dust mass lifetime over the remote oceanic regions than the 8-bin approach, the three size approaches produce similar dust mass lifetime (3.2 days to 3.5 days) on quasi-global average, reflecting that the global dust mass lifetime is mainly determined by the dust mass lifetime near the dust source regions. With the same global dust emission (~6000 Tg yr-1), the 8-bin approach produces a dust mass loading of 39 Tg, while the 4-bin and 3-mode approaches produce 3% (40.2 Tg) and 25% (49.1 Tg) higher dust mass loading, respectively. The difference in dust mass loading between the 8-bin approach and the 4-bin or 3-mode approaches has large spatial variations, with generally smaller relative difference (<10%) near the surface over the dust source regions. The three size approaches also result in significantly different dry and wet deposition fluxes and number concentrations of dust. The difference in dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) (a factor of 3) among the three size approaches is much larger than their difference (25%) in dust mass loading. Compared to the 8-bin approach, the 4-bin approach yields stronger dust absorptivity, while the 3-mode

  17. A Unified Approach for Reporting ARM Measurement Uncertainties Technical Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Campos, E; Sisterson, DL

    2015-10-01

    The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility is observationally based, and quantifying the uncertainty of its measurements is critically important. With over 300 widely differing instruments providing over 2,500 datastreams, concise expression of measurement uncertainty is quite challenging. The ARM Facility currently provides data and supporting metadata (information about the data or data quality) to its users through a number of sources. Because the continued success of the ARM Facility depends on the known quality of its measurements, the Facility relies on instrument mentors and the ARM Data Quality Office (DQO) to ensure, assess, and report measurement quality. Therefore, an easily-accessible, well-articulated estimate of ARM measurement uncertainty is needed.

  18. Hybrid processing of stochastic and subjective uncertainty data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooper, J.A.; Ferson, S.; Ginzburg, L.

    1995-11-01

    Uncertainty analyses typically recognize separate stochastic and subjective sources of uncertainty, but do not systematically combine the two, although a large amount of data used in analyses is partly stochastic and partly subjective. We have developed methodology for mathematically combining stochastic and subjective data uncertainty, based on new ``hybrid number`` approaches. The methodology can be utilized in conjunction with various traditional techniques, such as PRA (probabilistic risk assessment) and risk analysis decision support. Hybrid numbers have been previously examined as a potential method to represent combinations of stochastic and subjective information, but mathematical processing has been impeded by the requirements inherent in the structure of the numbers, e.g., there was no known way to multiply hybrids. In this paper, we will demonstrate methods for calculating with hybrid numbers that avoid the difficulties. By formulating a hybrid number as a probability distribution that is only fuzzy known, or alternatively as a random distribution of fuzzy numbers, methods are demonstrated for the full suite of arithmetic operations, permitting complex mathematical calculations. It will be shown how information about relative subjectivity (the ratio of subjective to stochastic knowledge about a particular datum) can be incorporated. Techniques are also developed for conveying uncertainty information visually, so that the stochastic and subjective constituents of the uncertainty, as well as the ratio of knowledge about the two, are readily apparent. The techniques demonstrated have the capability to process uncertainty information for independent, uncorrelated data, and for some types of dependent and correlated data. Example applications are suggested, illustrative problems are worked, and graphical results are given.

  19. Uncertainty Analysis for RELAP5-3D

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aaron J. Pawel; Dr. George L. Mesina

    2011-08-01

    In its current state, RELAP5-3D is a 'best-estimate' code; it is one of our most reliable programs for modeling what occurs within reactor systems in transients from given initial conditions. This code, however, remains an estimator. A statistical analysis has been performed that begins to lay the foundation for a full uncertainty analysis. By varying the inputs over assumed probability density functions, the output parameters were shown to vary. Using such statistical tools as means, variances, and tolerance intervals, a picture of how uncertain the results are based on the uncertainty of the inputs has been obtained.

  20. Uncertainty quantification in lattice QCD calculations for nuclear physics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beane, Silas R.; Detmold, William; Orginos, Kostas; Savage, Martin J.

    2015-02-05

    The numerical technique of Lattice QCD holds the promise of connecting the nuclear forces, nuclei, the spectrum and structure of hadrons, and the properties of matter under extreme conditions with the underlying theory of the strong interactions, quantum chromodynamics. A distinguishing, and thus far unique, feature of this formulation is that all of the associated uncertainties, both statistical and systematic can, in principle, be systematically reduced to any desired precision with sufficient computational and human resources. As a result, we review the sources of uncertainty inherent in Lattice QCD calculations for nuclear physics, and discuss how each is quantified in current efforts.

  1. Scenarios of Global Municipal Water-Use Demand Projections over the 21st Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Davies, Evan; Eom, Jiyong

    2013-03-06

    This paper establishes three future projections of global municipal water use to the end of the 21st century: A reference business-as usual (BAU) scenario, a High Technological Improvement (High Tech) scenario and a Low Technological Improvement (Low Tech) scenario. A global municipal water demand model is constructed using global water use statistics at the country-scale, calibrated to the base year of 2005, and simulated to the end of the 21st century. Since the constructed water demand model hinges on socioeconomic variables (population, income), water price, and end-use technology and efficiency improvement rates, projections of those input variables are adopted to characterize the uncertainty in future water demand estimates. The water demand model is linked to the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a global change integrated assessment model. Under the reference scenario, the global total water withdrawal increases from 466 km3/year in 2005 to 941 km3/year in 2100,while withdrawals in the high and low tech scenarios are 321 km3/ year and 2000 km3/ year, respectively. This wide range (321-2000 km3/ year) indicates the level of uncertainty associated with such projections. The simulated global municipal demand projections are most sensitive to population and income projections, then to end-use technology and efficiency projections, and finally to water price. Thus, using water price alone as a policy measure to reduce municipal water use may substantiate the share of municipal water price of peoples annual incomes.

  2. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandians Published in American Chemical Society's Environmental Science & Technology Analysis, Climate, Energy, Global Climate & Energy, Modeling, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Systems Analysis, Water Security Sandians Published in American Chemical Society's Environmental Science & Technology Electricity use by water service sector and county. Shown are electricity use by (a) large-scale conveyance, (b) groundwater irrigation pumping, (c) surface water irrigation

  3. Global Bioenergy Partnership Meetings

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s Bioenergy Technologies Office Sustainability Technology Manager Kristen Johnson represented the Office at the Global Bioenergy Partnership (GBEP) Meetings in Rome, Italy. The event included three meetings, the 7th annual GBEP Working Group on Capacity Building, the 13th annual Task Force on Sustainability to discuss the experiences with the GBEP Sustainability Indicators for Bioenergy, and the 18th annual GBEP Steering Committee to discuss strategies for sustainable bioenergy development and deployment.

  4. Curing | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Curing We're pioneering medical developments, from robotic healthcare assistants to diagnostic tools and specialized, globally deployed gear. Home > Impact > Curing Invention Factory: How Will We Live Forever? In this episode of Invention Factory - a partnership between GE and Vice - we probe the cutting edge of medical... Read More » Invention Factory: How Will Mind Overcome Matter? In this episode of Invention Factory - a partnership between General Electric and Vice - we explore how

  5. Invention | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Invention Our people drive every scientific advance we make, every day. Find out who they are and what they're thinking right now. Home > Invention Inventors GE Global Research Centers are home to many of the world's brightest, most inquisitive minds in science and technology. Meet our people » Stump the Scientist Ask us your question about science or technology. Then check back often to see what our scientists say! Leave them speechless » Edison's Desk Blog Curious about researchers'

  6. Curing | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Curing We're pioneering medical developments, from robotic healthcare assistants to diagnostic tools and specialized, globally deployed gear. Home > Impact > Curing Hospital Management Is Evolving to Reduce Wait Times With hospitals busier than ever and not enough staff to meet the higher demand, going to the hospital can be a series of waiting... Read More » Making High-Value Imaging More Accessible Around the World Advancements in healthcare are creating a paradigm shift in how we

  7. Global residential appliance standards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Turiel, I.; McMahon, J.E.; Lebot, B.

    1993-03-01

    In most countries, residential electricity consumption typically ranges from 20% to 40% of total electricity consumption. This energy is used for heating, cooling, refrigeration and other end-uses. Significant energy savings are possible if new appliance purchases are for models with higher efficiency than that of existing models. There are several ways to ensure or encourage such an outcome, for example, appliance rebates, innovative procurement, and minimum efficiency standards. This paper focuses on the latter approach. At the present time, the US is the only country with comprehensive appliance energy efficiency standards. However, many other countries, such as Australia, Canada, the European Community (EC), Japan and Korea, are considering enacting standards. The greatest potential impact of minimum efficiency standards for appliances is in the developing countries (e.g., China and India), where saturations of household appliances are relatively low but growing rapidly. This paper discusses the potential savings that could be achieved from global appliance efficiency standards for refrigerators and freezers. It also could be achieved from global appliance efficiency standards for refrigerators and freezers. It also discusses the impediments to establishing common standards for certain appliance types, such as differing test procedures, characteristics, and fuel prices. A methodology for establishing global efficiency standards for refrigerators and freezers is described.

  8. Impact of parton distribution function and {alpha}{sub s} uncertainties on Higgs boson production in gluon fusion at hadron colliders

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Demartin, Federico; Mariani, Elisa [Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Milano, Via Celoria 16, I-20133 Milano (Italy); Forte, Stefano; Vicini, Alessandro [Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Milano, Via Celoria 16, I-20133 Milano (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Milano, Via Celoria 16, I-20133 Milano (Italy); Rojo, Juan [INFN, Sezione di Milano, Via Celoria 16, I-20133 Milano (Italy)

    2010-07-01

    We present a systematic study of uncertainties due to parton distributions (PDFs) and the strong coupling on the gluon-fusion production cross section of the standard model Higgs at the Tevatron and LHC colliders. We compare procedures and results when three recent sets of PDFs are used, CTEQ6.6, MSTW08, and NNPDF1.2, and we discuss specifically the way PDF and strong coupling uncertainties are combined. We find that results obtained from different PDF sets are in reasonable agreement if a common value of the strong coupling is adopted. We show that the addition in quadrature of PDF and {alpha}{sub s} uncertainties provides an adequate approximation to the full result with exact error propagation. We discuss a simple recipe to determine a conservative PDF+{alpha}{sub s} uncertainty from available global parton sets, and we use it to estimate this uncertainty on the given process to be about 10% at the Tevatron and 5% at the LHC for a light Higgs.

  9. Global interrupt and barrier networks

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Blumrich, Matthias A.; Chen, Dong; Coteus, Paul W.; Gara, Alan G.; Giampapa, Mark E; Heidelberger, Philip; Kopcsay, Gerard V.; Steinmacher-Burow, Burkhard D.; Takken, Todd E.

    2008-10-28

    A system and method for generating global asynchronous signals in a computing structure. Particularly, a global interrupt and barrier network is implemented that implements logic for generating global interrupt and barrier signals for controlling global asynchronous operations performed by processing elements at selected processing nodes of a computing structure in accordance with a processing algorithm; and includes the physical interconnecting of the processing nodes for communicating the global interrupt and barrier signals to the elements via low-latency paths. The global asynchronous signals respectively initiate interrupt and barrier operations at the processing nodes at times selected for optimizing performance of the processing algorithms. In one embodiment, the global interrupt and barrier network is implemented in a scalable, massively parallel supercomputing device structure comprising a plurality of processing nodes interconnected by multiple independent networks, with each node including one or more processing elements for performing computation or communication activity as required when performing parallel algorithm operations. One multiple independent network includes a global tree network for enabling high-speed global tree communications among global tree network nodes or sub-trees thereof. The global interrupt and barrier network may operate in parallel with the global tree network for providing global asynchronous sideband signals.

  10. Dynamic ray tracing and traveltime corrections for global seismic tomography

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian Yue Hung, S.-H.; Nolet, Guust; Montelli, Raffaella; Dahlen, F.A.

    2007-09-10

    We present a dynamic ray tracing program for a spherically symmetric Earth that may be used to compute Frechet kernels for traveltime and amplitude anomalies at finite frequency. The program works for arbitrarily defined phases and background models. The numerical precisions of kinematic and dynamic ray tracing are optimized to produce traveltime errors under 0.1 s, which is well below the data uncertainty in global seismology. This tolerance level is obtained for an integration step size of about 20 km for the most common seismic phases. We also give software to compute ellipticity, crustal and topographic corrections and attenuation.

  11. A policy synthesis approach for slowing global warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Timilsina, G.R.

    1996-12-31

    Global warming is a burning environmental issue today but confronting with subjective as well as policy conflicts. The findings of various studies indicate that developed countries that are capable of affording effective measures towards the global warming mitigation have fewer incentives for doing so because they will have a minimal damage from global warming. The developing countries, although they will have greater damage, are unlikely to divert their development budget for taking preventive actions towards global warming. The only solution in this situation is to design a policy that encourages all the nation in the world to participate in the programs for slowing global warming. Without active participation of all nations, it seems unlikely to reduce the global warming problem in an effective way. This study presents a qualitative policy recommendation extracted from a comprehensive analysis of the findings of several studies conducted so far in this field. This study has categorized the policy approaches for mitigating the global warming in three groups: Engineering approach, forestry approach and economic approach.

  12. Lidar arc scan uncertainty reduction through scanning geometry optimization

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Wang, H.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Pryor, S. C.; Brown, G.

    2015-10-07

    Doppler lidars are frequently operated in a mode referred to as arc scans, wherein the lidar beam scans across a sector with a fixed elevation angle and the resulting measurements are used to derive an estimate of the n minute horizontal mean wind velocity (speed and direction). Previous studies have shown that the uncertainty in the measured wind speed originates from turbulent wind fluctuations and depends on the scan geometry (the arc span and the arc orientation). This paper is designed to provide guidance on optimal scan geometries for two key applications in the wind energy industry: wind turbine powermoreperformance analysis and annual energy production. We present a quantitative analysis of the retrieved wind speed uncertainty derived using a theoretical model with the assumption of isotropic and frozen turbulence, and observations from three sites that are onshore with flat terrain, onshore with complex terrain and offshore, respectively. The results from both the theoretical model and observations show that the uncertainty is scaled with the turbulence intensity such that the relative standard error on the 10 min mean wind speed is about 30 % of the turbulence intensity. The uncertainty in both retrieved wind speeds and derived wind energy production estimates can be reduced by aligning lidar beams with the dominant wind direction, increasing the arc span and lowering the number of beams per arc scan. Large arc spans should be used at sites with high turbulence intensity and/or large wind direction variation when arc scans are used for wind resource assessment.less

  13. Reducing uncertainty in geostatistical description with well testing pressure data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reynolds, A.C.; He, Nanqun; Oliver, D.S.

    1997-08-01

    Geostatistics has proven to be an effective tool for generating realizations of reservoir properties conditioned to static data, e.g., core and log data and geologic knowledge. Due to the lack of closely spaced data in the lateral directions, there will be significant variability in reservoir descriptions generated by geostatistical simulation, i.e., significant uncertainty in the reservoir descriptions. In past work, we have presented procedures based on inverse problem theory for generating reservoir descriptions (rock property fields) conditioned to pressure data and geostatistical information represented as prior means for log-permeability and porosity and variograms. Although we have shown that the incorporation of pressure data reduces the uncertainty below the level contained in the geostatistical model based only on static information (the prior model), our previous results assumed did not explicitly account for uncertainties in the prior means and the parameters defining the variogram model. In this work, we investigate how pressure data can help detect errors in the prior means. If errors in the prior means are large and are not taken into account, realizations conditioned to pressure data represent incorrect samples of the a posteriori probability density function for the rock property fields, whereas, if the uncertainty in the prior mean is incorporated properly into the model, one obtains realistic realizations of the rock property fields.

  14. Improved lower bound on the entropic uncertainty relation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jafarpour, Mojtaba; Sabour, Abbass

    2011-09-15

    We present a lower bound on the entropic uncertainty relation for the distinguished measurements of two observables in a d-dimensional Hilbert space for d up to 5. This bound provides an improvement over the best one yet available. The feasibility of the obtained bound presenting an improvement for higher dimensions is also discussed.

  15. Endeavor Global | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    :"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":"" Hide Map References: Endeavor Global Web Site1 This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. Endeavor Global is...

  16. Enlighten Your Research Global Program

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enlighten Your Research Global Program Science Engagement Move your data Programs & Workshops CrossConnects Workshop Series Operating Innovative Networks Workshop Series Enlighten Your Research Global Program Science Requirements Reviews Case Studies Contact Us Technical Assistance: 1 800-33-ESnet (Inside US) 1 800-333-7638 (Inside US) 1 510-486-7600 (Globally) 1 510-486-7607 (Globally) Report Network Problems: trouble@es.net Provide Web Site Feedback: info@es.net Enlighten Your Research

  17. ARM - What Causes Global Warming?

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ThinkersWhat Causes Global Warming? Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans What Causes Global Warming? What is the basis for the predictions concerning global warming? There are several gases in the air, collectively called greenhouse gases, that trap the infrared radiation emitted

  18. Environmental improvements and better economics in EOR operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Taber, J.J. . New Mexico Petroleum Recovery Research Center)

    1990-12-01

    This paper discusses how environmental improvements in EOR technology continues to advance. Successful EOR requires the injection of a fluid which produces incremental oil for the least overall cost. When the net volumetric costs of EOR injection fluids are compared at reservoir conditions, it is clear that only a few liquids or compressed gases can be used to displace crude oil on a barrel for barrel basis. Although high-concentration surfactants have the potential for very efficient displacements, reservoir heterogeneity increases the economic uncertainty of the process, especially at today's oil prices. Water is always the cheapest fluid to inject, even with small amounts of polymer added, and polymer flooding can be cost- effective for new waterfloods. However, polymer flooding is not efficient for displacing tertiary oil. Water converted to steam still accounts for most of the EOR production in the U.S.A., but low oil prices and stricter environmental regulations now restrain large expansions and new projects. Cogeneration of steam and electricity improves the economics markedly for thermal EOR projects, and gas-fired boilers reduce the emissions to the atmosphere. By firing the cogeneration boilers with coal or gas, the more plentiful fossil fuels are converted into much-needed liquid fuels efficiently and economically.

  19. WINDExchange: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models

    Wind Powering America (EERE)

    Deployment Activities Printable Version Bookmark and Share Regional Resource Centers Economic Development Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model Resources & Tools Siting Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model Fact Sheet PDF The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation at the local and state levels. Based on

  20. Transcript of Tribal Energy and Economic Webinar: Energy Planning for Tribal Economic Development

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Transcript for the Tribal Energy and Economic Webinar: Energy Planning for Tribal Economic Development held on Jan. 27, 2016.

  1. Global warming from HFC

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, E.

    1998-11-01

    Using a variety of public sources, a computer model of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerant emissions in the UK has been developed. This model has been used to estimate and project emissions in 2010 under three types of scenarios: (1) business as usual; (2) voluntary agreements to reduce refrigerant leakage; and (3) comprehensive regulations to reduce refrigerant leakage. This resulting forecast is that UK emissions of HFC refrigerants in 2010 will account for 2% to 4% of the UK`s 1990 baseline global warming contribution.

  2. The Global Energy Challenge

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Crabtree, George

    2010-01-08

    The expected doubling of global energy demand by 2050 challenges our traditional patterns of energy production, distribution and use.   The continued use of fossil fuels raises concerns about supply, security, environment and climate.  New routes are needed for the efficient conversion of energy from chemical fuel, sunlight, and heat to electricity or hydrogen as an energy carrier and finally to end uses like transportation, lighting, and heating. Opportunities for efficient new energy conversion routes based on nanoscale materials will be presented, with emphasis on the sustainable energy technologies they enable.

  3. Travois Indian Country Affordable Housing & Economic Development...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Travois Indian Country Affordable Housing & Economic Development Conference Travois Indian Country Affordable Housing & Economic Development Conference April 4, 2016 8:00AM CDT to ...

  4. Chemical incident economic impact analysis methodology. (Technical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Chemical incident economic impact analysis methodology. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Chemical incident economic impact analysis methodology. You are accessing a ...

  5. Workforce and Economic Development | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Workforce and Economic Development Workforce and Economic Development Slides presented in the "What's Working in Residential Energy Efficiency Upgrade Programs Conference - ...

  6. Renewable Energy: science, politics, and economics (Technical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Renewable Energy: science, politics, and economics Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Renewable Energy: science, politics, and economics Authors: Migliori, Albert 1 + ...

  7. Economic, Energy, and Environmental Benefits of Concentrating...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Economic, Energy, and Environmental Benefits of Concentrating Solar Power in California L. ... NRELSR-550-39291 April 2006 Economic, Energy, and Environmental Benefits of ...

  8. PERI Green Economics | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    PERI Green Economics Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: PERI Green Economics AgencyCompany Organization: Political Economy Research Institute Sector:...

  9. Renewable Energy: science, politics, and economics (Technical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Technical Report: Renewable Energy: science, politics, and economics Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Renewable Energy: science, politics, and economics You are ...

  10. Renewable Energy: science, politics, and economics (Technical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Renewable Energy: science, politics, and economics Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Renewable Energy: science, politics, and economics You are accessing a document ...

  11. Global environmental security: Research and policy strategies for the 1990s

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lazaro, M.A.; Wang, Hua

    1992-09-01

    The subject of global environmental change is emerging as one of the most hotly debated international issues for the 1990s. In fact, our earth system has undergone a nature-induced gradual change in climate on both a temporal scale that spans over millions of years and a spatial scale ranging from regional to transcontinental. Pollutant emissions associated with population growth and industrial activities manifest the anthropogenic climatic forcing that has been superimposed on the background of natural climate fluctuations. Our incomplete understanding of the global impacts of environmental pollution on the earth systems (atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and lithosphere), however, make the prediction of the timing, magnitude, and patterns of future global change uncertain. This paper examines the science and policy background of global environmental change. The major scientific uncertainties and policy issues confronting decision makers are identified; and the scientific framework, as well as current national and international research programs aimed at resolving the scientific uncertainties, are discussed. A coherent, stable, and flexible policy is needed to provide a foundation for coordinated international-interagency programs of observation, research, analysis, and international negotiation toward a policy consensus concerning global environmental security. On the basis of what is currently known about global change, recommendations are presented on both near-term and long-term policy option decisions.

  12. Global environmental security: Research and policy strategies for the 1990s

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lazaro, M.A.; Wang, Hua.

    1992-01-01

    The subject of global environmental change is emerging as one of the most hotly debated international issues for the 1990s. In fact, our earth system has undergone a nature-induced gradual change in climate on both a temporal scale that spans over millions of years and a spatial scale ranging from regional to transcontinental. Pollutant emissions associated with population growth and industrial activities manifest the anthropogenic climatic forcing that has been superimposed on the background of natural climate fluctuations. Our incomplete understanding of the global impacts of environmental pollution on the earth systems (atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and lithosphere), however, make the prediction of the timing, magnitude, and patterns of future global change uncertain. This paper examines the science and policy background of global environmental change. The major scientific uncertainties and policy issues confronting decision makers are identified; and the scientific framework, as well as current national and international research programs aimed at resolving the scientific uncertainties, are discussed. A coherent, stable, and flexible policy is needed to provide a foundation for coordinated international-interagency programs of observation, research, analysis, and international negotiation toward a policy consensus concerning global environmental security. On the basis of what is currently known about global change, recommendations are presented on both near-term and long-term policy option decisions.

  13. Criteria for Global Nuclear Energy Development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lawrence, Michael J.

    2002-07-01

    Global energy consumption will at least double over the next fifty years due to population growth, increased consumption, and an urgent need to improve the standard of living in under-developed countries. Thirty percent of this growth will be for electricity. At the same time, carbon emissions must be significantly reduced to respond to concerns regarding global warming. The use of nuclear energy to meet this growing electricity demand without carbon emissions is an obvious solution to many observers, however real concerns over economics, safety, waste and proliferation must be adequately addressed. The issue is further complicated by the fact that developing countries, which have the most pressing need for additional electricity generation, have the least capability and infrastructure to deploy nuclear energy. Nevertheless, if the specific needs of developing countries are appropriately considered now as new generation reactors are being developed, and institutional arrangements based upon the fundamental principles of President Eisenhower's 1953 Atoms For Peace speech are followed, nuclear energy could be deployed in any country. From a technical perspective, reactor safety and accessibility of special nuclear material are primary concerns. Institutionally, plant and fuel ownership and waste management issues must be addressed. International safety and safeguards authority are prerequisites. While the IAEA's IMPRO program and the United States' Generation IV programs are focusing on technical solutions, institutional issues, particularly with regard to deployment in developing countries, are not receiving corresponding attention. Full-service, cradle-to-grave, nuclear electricity companies that retain custody and responsibility for the plant and materials, including waste, are one possible solution. Small modular reactors such as the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor could be ideal for such an arrangement. While waste disposal remains a major obstacle, this is already

  14. (Global energy development)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Trivelpiece, A.W.; Fulkerson, W.

    1989-11-21

    This is the report of foreign travel by Alvin W. Trivelpiece and William Fulkerson who were part of a US delegation of ten individuals who visited the Soviet Union for two weeks as part of a joint activity between the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and the Academy of Sciences (AS) of the USSR. Trivelpiece headed the US delegation. The trip was sponsored by the NAS under a grant from the MacArthur Foundation. It consisted of three parts: (1) a tour of energy facilities and laboratories in Siberia, including the cities of Novosibirsk, Krasnoyarsk, Nazarovo, Achinsk, Bratsk, and Irkutsk; (2) a joint seminar in Moscow called Global Energy Development and Associated Ecological (Environmental) Impacts''; and (3) a workshop to discuss areas of potential future collaboration and cooperation. A Memorandum of Record was signed on the final day. It recommended that the Presidents of the two Academies establish a joint committee for ...coordinating, recommending, and encouraging activities in accordance with this memorandum.'' Projects for possible collaboration were identified in the areas of energy data and models, global warming, technologies for more efficient use of energy, clean coal, gas turbines, tools for assessing environmental impacts, and analysis of approaches to energy decision making.

  15. Giant dipole resonance parameters with uncertainties from photonuclear cross sections

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Plujko, V.A.; Capote, R.; Gorbachenko, O.M.

    2011-09-15

    Updated values and corresponding uncertainties of isovector giant dipole resonance (IVGDR or GDR) model parameters are presented that are obtained by the least-squares fitting of theoretical photoabsorption cross sections to experimental data. The theoretical photoabsorption cross section is taken as a sum of the components corresponding to excitation of the GDR and quasideuteron contribution to the experimental photoabsorption cross section. The present compilation covers experimental data as of January 2010. - Highlights: {yields} Experimental {sigma} ({gamma}, abs) or a sum of partial cross sections are taken as input to the fitting. {yields} Data include contributions from photoproton reactions. {yields} Standard (SLO) or modified (SMLO) Lorentzian approaches are used for formulating GDR models. {yields} Spherical or axially deformed nuclear shapes are used in GDR least-squares fit. {yields} Values and uncertainties of the SLO and SMLO GDR model parameters are tabulated.

  16. Investigation of uncertainty components in Coulomb blockade thermometry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hahtela, O. M.; Heinonen, M.; Manninen, A.; Meschke, M.; Savin, A.; Pekola, J. P.; Gunnarsson, D.; Prunnila, M.; Penttil, J. S.; Roschier, L.

    2013-09-11

    Coulomb blockade thermometry (CBT) has proven to be a feasible method for primary thermometry in every day laboratory use at cryogenic temperatures from ca. 10 mK to a few tens of kelvins. The operation of CBT is based on single electron charging effects in normal metal tunnel junctions. In this paper, we discuss the typical error sources and uncertainty components that limit the present absolute accuracy of the CBT measurements to the level of about 1 % in the optimum temperature range. Identifying the influence of different uncertainty sources is a good starting point for improving the measurement accuracy to the level that would allow the CBT to be more widely used in high-precision low temperature metrological applications and for realizing thermodynamic temperature in accordance to the upcoming new definition of kelvin.

  17. Reduction in maximum time uncertainty of paired time signals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Theodosiou, G.E.; Dawson, J.W.

    1983-10-04

    Reduction in the maximum time uncertainty (t[sub max]--t[sub min]) of a series of paired time signals t[sub 1] and t[sub 2] varying between two input terminals and representative of a series of single events where t[sub 1][<=]t[sub 2] and t[sub 1]+t[sub 2] equals a constant, is carried out with a circuit utilizing a combination of OR and AND gates as signal selecting means and one or more time delays to increase the minimum value (t[sub min]) of the first signal t[sub 1] closer to t[sub max] and thereby reduce the difference. The circuit may utilize a plurality of stages to reduce the uncertainty by factors of 20--800. 6 figs.

  18. Reduction in maximum time uncertainty of paired time signals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Theodosiou, George E.; Dawson, John W.

    1983-01-01

    Reduction in the maximum time uncertainty (t.sub.max -t.sub.min) of a series of paired time signals t.sub.1 and t.sub.2 varying between two input terminals and representative of a series of single events where t.sub.1 .ltoreq.t.sub.2 and t.sub.1 +t.sub.2 equals a constant, is carried out with a circuit utilizing a combination of OR and AND gates as signal selecting means and one or more time delays to increase the minimum value (t.sub.min) of the first signal t.sub.1 closer to t.sub.max and thereby reduce the difference. The circuit may utilize a plurality of stages to reduce the uncertainty by factors of 20-800.

  19. Reduction in maximum time uncertainty of paired time signals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Theodosiou, G.E.; Dawson, J.W.

    1981-02-11

    Reduction in the maximum time uncertainty (t/sub max/ - t/sub min/) of a series of paired time signals t/sub 1/ and t/sub 2/ varying between two input terminals and representative of a series of single events where t/sub 1/ less than or equal to t/sub 2/ and t/sub 1/ + t/sub 2/ equals a constant, is carried out with a circuit utilizing a combination of OR and AND gates as signal selecting means and one or more time delays to increase the minimum value (t/sub min/) of the first signal t/sub 1/ closer to t/sub max/ and thereby reduce the difference. The circuit may utilize a plurality of stages to reduce the uncertainty by factors of 20 to 800.

  20. Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Nuclear Density Functional Theory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schunck, N; McDonnell, J D; Higdon, D; Sarich, J; Wild, S M

    2015-03-17

    Nuclear density functional theory (DFT) is one of the main theoretical tools used to study the properties of heavy and superheavy elements, or to describe the structure of nuclei far from stability. While on-going eff orts seek to better root nuclear DFT in the theory of nuclear forces, energy functionals remain semi-phenomenological constructions that depend on a set of parameters adjusted to experimental data in fi nite nuclei. In this paper, we review recent eff orts to quantify the related uncertainties, and propagate them to model predictions. In particular, we cover the topics of parameter estimation for inverse problems, statistical analysis of model uncertainties and Bayesian inference methods. Illustrative examples are taken from the literature.

  1. Uncertainties in nuclear transition matrix elements of neutrinoless ?? decay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rath, P. K.

    2013-12-30

    To estimate the uncertainties associated with the nuclear transition matrix elements M{sup (K)} (K=0?/0N) for the 0{sup +} ? 0{sup +} transitions of electron and positron emitting modes of the neutrinoless ?? decay, a statistical analysis has been performed by calculating sets of eight (twelve) different nuclear transition matrix elements M{sup (K)} in the PHFB model by employing four different parameterizations of a Hamiltonian with pairing plus multipolar effective two-body interaction and two (three) different parameterizations of Jastrow short range correlations. The averages in conjunction with their standard deviations provide an estimate of the uncertainties associated the nuclear transition matrix elements M{sup (K)} calculated within the PHFB model, the maximum of which turn out to be 13% and 19% owing to the exchange of light and heavy Majorana neutrinos, respectively.

  2. Global tree network for computing structures enabling global processing operations

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Blumrich; Matthias A.; Chen, Dong; Coteus, Paul W.; Gara, Alan G.; Giampapa, Mark E.; Heidelberger, Philip; Hoenicke, Dirk; Steinmacher-Burow, Burkhard D.; Takken, Todd E.; Vranas, Pavlos M.

    2010-01-19

    A system and method for enabling high-speed, low-latency global tree network communications among processing nodes interconnected according to a tree network structure. The global tree network enables collective reduction operations to be performed during parallel algorithm operations executing in a computer structure having a plurality of the interconnected processing nodes. Router devices are included that interconnect the nodes of the tree via links to facilitate performance of low-latency global processing operations at nodes of the virtual tree and sub-tree structures. The global operations performed include one or more of: broadcast operations downstream from a root node to leaf nodes of a virtual tree, reduction operations upstream from leaf nodes to the root node in the virtual tree, and point-to-point message passing from any node to the root node. The global tree network is configurable to provide global barrier and interrupt functionality in asynchronous or synchronized manner, and, is physically and logically partitionable.

  3. Neutron reactions and climate uncertainties earn Los Alamos scientists DOE

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Early Career awards DOE Early Career awards Neutron reactions and climate uncertainties earn Los Alamos scientists DOE Early Career awards Marian Jandel and Nathan Urban are among the 61 national recipients of the Energy Department's Early Career Research Program awards for 2013. May 10, 2013 Marian Jandel (left) and Nathan Urban Marian Jandel (left) and Nathan Urban Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505) 667-0471 Email Marian and Nathan are excellent examples of the

  4. Optimization of Complex Energy System Under Uncertainty | Argonne

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Leadership Computing Facility Optimization of Complex Energy System Under Uncertainty PI Name: Mihai Anitescu PI Email: anitescu@mcs.anl.gov Institution: Argonne National Laboratory Allocation Program: INCITE Allocation Hours at ALCF: 10,000,000 Year: 2012 Research Domain: Energy Technologies The U.S. electrical power system is at a crossroads between its mission to deliver cheap and safe electrical energy, a strategic aim to increase the penetration of renewable energy, an increased

  5. Lidar arc scan uncertainty reduction through scanning geometry optimization

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Wang, Hui; Barthelmie, Rebecca J.; Pryor, Sara C.; Brown, Gareth.

    2016-04-13

    Doppler lidars are frequently operated in a mode referred to as arc scans, wherein the lidar beam scans across a sector with a fixed elevation angle and the resulting measurements are used to derive an estimate of the n minute horizontal mean wind velocity (speed and direction). Previous studies have shown that the uncertainty in the measured wind speed originates from turbulent wind fluctuations and depends on the scan geometry (the arc span and the arc orientation). This paper is designed to provide guidance on optimal scan geometries for two key applications in the wind energy industry: wind turbine power performance analysis and annualmore » energy production prediction. We present a quantitative analysis of the retrieved wind speed uncertainty derived using a theoretical model with the assumption of isotropic and frozen turbulence, and observations from three sites that are onshore with flat terrain, onshore with complex terrain and offshore, respectively. The results from both the theoretical model and observations show that the uncertainty is scaled with the turbulence intensity such that the relative standard error on the 10 min mean wind speed is about 30 % of the turbulence intensity. The uncertainty in both retrieved wind speeds and derived wind energy production estimates can be reduced by aligning lidar beams with the dominant wind direction, increasing the arc span and lowering the number of beams per arc scan. Large arc spans should be used at sites with high turbulence intensity and/or large wind direction variation.« less

  6. Size exclusion deep bed filtration: Experimental and modelling uncertainties

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Badalyan, Alexander You, Zhenjiang; Aji, Kaiser; Bedrikovetsky, Pavel; Carageorgos, Themis; Zeinijahromi, Abbas

    2014-01-15

    A detailed uncertainty analysis associated with carboxyl-modified latex particle capture in glass bead-formed porous media enabled verification of the two theoretical stochastic models for prediction of particle retention due to size exclusion. At the beginning of this analysis it is established that size exclusion is a dominant particle capture mechanism in the present study: calculated significant repulsive Derjaguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek potential between latex particles and glass beads is an indication of their mutual repulsion, thus, fulfilling the necessary condition for size exclusion. Applying linear uncertainty propagation method in the form of truncated Taylor's series expansion, combined standard uncertainties (CSUs) in normalised suspended particle concentrations are calculated using CSUs in experimentally determined parameters such as: an inlet volumetric flowrate of suspension, particle number in suspensions, particle concentrations in inlet and outlet streams, particle and pore throat size distributions. Weathering of glass beads in high alkaline solutions does not appreciably change particle size distribution, and, therefore, is not considered as an additional contributor to the weighted mean particle radius and corresponded weighted mean standard deviation. Weighted mean particle radius and LogNormal mean pore throat radius are characterised by the highest CSUs among all experimental parameters translating to high CSU in the jamming ratio factor (dimensionless particle size). Normalised suspended particle concentrations calculated via two theoretical models are characterised by higher CSUs than those for experimental data. The model accounting the fraction of inaccessible flow as a function of latex particle radius excellently predicts normalised suspended particle concentrations for the whole range of jamming ratios. The presented uncertainty analysis can be also used for comparison of intra- and inter-laboratory particle size exclusion data.

  7. Lidar arc scan uncertainty reduction through scanning geometry optimization

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Wang, Hui; Barthelmie, Rebecca J.; Pryor, Sara C.; Brown, Gareth.

    2016-04-13

    Doppler lidars are frequently operated in a mode referred to as arc scans, wherein the lidar beam scans across a sector with a fixed elevation angle and the resulting measurements are used to derive an estimate of the n minute horizontal mean wind velocity (speed and direction). Previous studies have shown that the uncertainty in the measured wind speed originates from turbulent wind fluctuations and depends on the scan geometry (the arc span and the arc orientation). This paper is designed to provide guidance on optimal scan geometries for two key applications in the wind energy industry: wind turbine power performance analysis and annualmore » energy production prediction. We present a quantitative analysis of the retrieved wind speed uncertainty derived using a theoretical model with the assumption of isotropic and frozen turbulence, and observations from three sites that are onshore with flat terrain, onshore with complex terrain and offshore, respectively. The results from both the theoretical model and observations show that the uncertainty is scaled with the turbulence intensity such that the relative standard error on the 10 min mean wind speed is about 30% of the turbulence intensity. The uncertainty in both retrieved wind speeds and derived wind energy production estimates can be reduced by aligning lidar beams with the dominant wind direction, increasing the arc span and lowering the number of beams per arc scan. As a result, large arc spans should be used at sites with high turbulence intensity and/or large wind direction variation.« less

  8. Comment on ''Improved bounds on entropic uncertainty relations''

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bosyk, G. M.; Portesi, M.; Plastino, A.; Zozor, S.

    2011-11-15

    We provide an analytical proof of the entropic uncertainty relations presented by J. I. de Vicente and J. Sanchez-Ruiz [Phys. Rev. A 77, 042110 (2008)] and also show that the replacement of Eq. (27) by Eq. (29) in that reference introduces solutions that do not take fully into account the constraints of the problem, which in turn lead to some mistakes in their treatment.

  9. Computational Fluid Dynamics & Large-Scale Uncertainty Quantification for

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Energy Fluid Dynamics & Large-Scale Uncertainty Quantification for Wind Energy - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery

  10. Error and uncertainty in Raman thermal conductivity measurements

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Thomas Edwin Beechem; Yates, Luke; Graham, Samuel

    2015-04-22

    We investigated error and uncertainty in Raman thermal conductivity measurements via finite element based numerical simulation of two geometries often employed -- Joule-heating of a wire and laser-heating of a suspended wafer. Using this methodology, the accuracy and precision of the Raman-derived thermal conductivity are shown to depend on (1) assumptions within the analytical model used in the deduction of thermal conductivity, (2) uncertainty in the quantification of heat flux and temperature, and (3) the evolution of thermomechanical stress during testing. Apart from the influence of stress, errors of 5% coupled with uncertainties of ±15% are achievable for most materialsmore » under conditions typical of Raman thermometry experiments. Error can increase to >20%, however, for materials having highly temperature dependent thermal conductivities or, in some materials, when thermomechanical stress develops concurrent with the heating. A dimensionless parameter -- termed the Raman stress factor -- is derived to identify when stress effects will induce large levels of error. Together, the results compare the utility of Raman based conductivity measurements relative to more established techniques while at the same time identifying situations where its use is most efficacious.« less

  11. Errors and Uncertainties in Dose Reconstruction for Radiation Effects Research

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Strom, Daniel J.

    2008-04-14

    Dose reconstruction for studies of the health effects of ionizing radiation have been carried out for many decades. Major studies have included Japanese bomb survivors, atomic veterans, downwinders of the Nevada Test Site and Hanford, underground uranium miners, and populations of nuclear workers. For such studies to be credible, significant effort must be put into applying the best science to reconstructing unbiased absorbed doses to tissues and organs as a function of time. In many cases, more and more sophisticated dose reconstruction methods have been developed as studies progressed. For the example of the Japanese bomb survivors, the dose surrogate “distance from the hypocenter” was replaced by slant range, and then by TD65 doses, DS86 doses, and more recently DS02 doses. Over the years, it has become increasingly clear that an equal level of effort must be expended on the quantitative assessment of uncertainty in such doses, and to reducing and managing uncertainty. In this context, this paper reviews difficulties in terminology, explores the nature of Berkson and classical uncertainties in dose reconstruction through examples, and proposes a path forward for Joint Coordinating Committee for Radiation Effects Research (JCCRER) Project 2.4 that requires a reasonably small level of effort for DOSES-2008.

  12. Error and uncertainty in Raman thermal conductivity measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas Edwin Beechem; Yates, Luke; Graham, Samuel

    2015-04-22

    We investigated error and uncertainty in Raman thermal conductivity measurements via finite element based numerical simulation of two geometries often employed -- Joule-heating of a wire and laser-heating of a suspended wafer. Using this methodology, the accuracy and precision of the Raman-derived thermal conductivity are shown to depend on (1) assumptions within the analytical model used in the deduction of thermal conductivity, (2) uncertainty in the quantification of heat flux and temperature, and (3) the evolution of thermomechanical stress during testing. Apart from the influence of stress, errors of 5% coupled with uncertainties of ±15% are achievable for most materials under conditions typical of Raman thermometry experiments. Error can increase to >20%, however, for materials having highly temperature dependent thermal conductivities or, in some materials, when thermomechanical stress develops concurrent with the heating. A dimensionless parameter -- termed the Raman stress factor -- is derived to identify when stress effects will induce large levels of error. Together, the results compare the utility of Raman based conductivity measurements relative to more established techniques while at the same time identifying situations where its use is most efficacious.

  13. Composite Multilinearity, Epistemic Uncertainty and Risk Achievement Worth

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    E. Borgonovo; C. L. Smith

    2012-10-01

    Risk Achievement Worth is one of the most widely utilized importance measures. RAW is defined as the ratio of the risk metric value attained when a component has failed over the base case value of the risk metric. Traditionally, both the numerator and denominator are point estimates. Relevant literature has shown that inclusion of epistemic uncertainty i) induces notable variability in the point estimate ranking and ii) causes the expected value of the risk metric to differ from its nominal value. We obtain the conditions under which the equality holds between the nominal and expected values of a reliability risk metric. Among these conditions, separability and state-of-knowledge independence emerge. We then study how the presence of epistemic uncertainty aspects RAW and the associated ranking. We propose an extension of RAW (called ERAW) which allows one to obtain a ranking robust to epistemic uncertainty. We discuss the properties of ERAW and the conditions under which it coincides with RAW. We apply our findings to a probabilistic risk assessment model developed for the safety analysis of NASA lunar space missions.

  14. SECPOP90: Sector population, land fraction, and economic estimation program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Humphreys, S.L.; Rollstin, J.A.; Ridgely, J.N.

    1997-09-01

    In 1973 Mr. W. Athey of the Environmental Protection Agency wrote a computer program called SECPOP which calculated population estimates. Since that time, two things have changed which suggested the need for updating the original program - more recent population censuses and the widespread use of personal computers (PCs). The revised computer program uses the 1990 and 1992 Population Census information and runs on current PCs as {open_quotes}SECPOP90.{close_quotes} SECPOP90 consists of two parts: site and regional. The site provides population and economic data estimates for any location within the continental United States. Siting analysis is relatively fast running. The regional portion assesses site availability for different siting policy decisions; i.e., the impact of available sites given specific population density criteria within the continental United States. Regional analysis is slow. This report compares the SECPOP90 population estimates and the nuclear power reactor licensee-provided information. Although the source, and therefore the accuracy, of the licensee information is unknown, this comparison suggests SECPOP90 makes reasonable estimates. Given the total uncertainty in any current calculation of severe accidents, including the potential offsite consequences, the uncertainty within SECPOP90 population estimates is expected to be insignificant. 12 refs., 55 figs., 7 tabs.

  15. Considerations When Selecting a Condensing Economizer

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This tip sheet lays out considerations when selecting condensing economizers as part of optimized steam systems.

  16. BEST (Battery Economics for more Sustainable Transportation)

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2009-12-31

    Computer software for the simulation of battery economics based on various transportation business models.

  17. Disentangling climatic and anthropogenic controls on global terrestrial evapotranspiration trends

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Wei, Yaxing; Thornton, Peter E.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Fu, Wenting; Fisher, Joshua B.; Dickinson, Robert E.; Shem, Willis; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Kaicun; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Tian, Hanqin; Mu, Mingquan; Arain, Altaf; Ciais, Philippe; Cook, Robert; Dai, Yongjiu; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Huang, Suo; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul; King, Anthony W.; Lei, Huimin; Lu, Chaoqun; Michalak, Anna M.; Parazoo, Nicholas; Peng, Changhui; Peng, Shushi; Poulter, Benjamin; Schaefer, Kevin; Jafarov, Elchin; Wang, Weile; Zeng, Ning; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhao, Fang; Zhu, Qiuan; Zhu, Zaichun

    2015-09-08

    Here, we examined natural and anthropogenic controls on terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) changes from 1982-2010 using multiple estimates from remote sensing-based datasets and process-oriented land surface models. A significant increased trend of ET in each hemisphere was consistently revealed by observationally-constrained data and multi-model ensembles that considered historic natural and anthropogenic drivers. The climate impacts were simulated to determine the spatiotemporal variations in ET. Globally, rising CO2 ranked second in these models after the predominant climatic influences, and yielded a decreasing trend in canopy transpiration and ET, especially for tropical forests and high-latitude shrub land. Increased nitrogen deposition slightly amplified global ET via enhanced plant growth. Land-use-induced ET responses, albeit with substantial uncertainties across the factorial analysis, were minor globally, but pronounced locally, particularly over regions with intensive land-cover changes. Our study highlights the importance of employing multi-stream ET and ET-component estimates to quantify the strengthening anthropogenic fingerprint in the global hydrologic cycle.

  18. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills June 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by

  19. Achieving Robustness to Uncertainty for Financial Decision-making

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barnum, George M.; Van Buren, Kendra L.; Hemez, Francois M.; Song, Peter

    2014-01-10

    This report investigates the concept of robustness analysis to support financial decision-making. Financial models, that forecast future stock returns or market conditions, depend on assumptions that might be unwarranted and variables that might exhibit large fluctuations from their last-known values. The analysis of robustness explores these sources of uncertainty, and recommends model settings such that the forecasts used for decision-making are as insensitive as possible to the uncertainty. A proof-of-concept is presented with the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The robustness of model predictions is assessed using info-gap decision theory. Info-gaps are models of uncertainty that express the “distance,” or gap of information, between what is known and what needs to be known in order to support the decision. The analysis yields a description of worst-case stock returns as a function of increasing gaps in our knowledge. The analyst can then decide on the best course of action by trading-off worst-case performance with “risk”, which is how much uncertainty they think needs to be accommodated in the future. The report also discusses the Graphical User Interface, developed using the MATLAB® programming environment, such that the user can control the analysis through an easy-to-navigate interface. Three directions of future work are identified to enhance the present software. First, the code should be re-written using the Python scientific programming software. This change will achieve greater cross-platform compatibility, better portability, allow for a more professional appearance, and render it independent from a commercial license, which MATLAB® requires. Second, a capability should be developed to allow users to quickly implement and analyze their own models. This will facilitate application of the software to the evaluation of proprietary financial models. The third enhancement proposed is to add the ability to evaluate multiple models simultaneously

  20. White House Conference on Global Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-11-01

    President Clinton has directed the White House office on Environmental Policy to coordinate an interagency process to develop a plan to fulfill the commitment he made in his Earth Day address on April 21, 1993. This plan will become the cornerstone of the Climate Change Plan that will be completed shortly after the Rio Accord enters into force. The Office on Environmental Policy established the Interagency Climate Change Mitigation Group to draw on the expertise of federal agencies including the National Economic Council; the Council of Economic Advisors; the Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Office of Management and Budget; the National Security Council; the Domestic Policy Council; the Environmental Protection Agency; and the Departments of Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Interior, Treasury, Commerce, and State. Working groups have been established to examine six key policy areas: energy demand, energy supply, joint implementation, methane and other gases, sinks, and transportation. The purpose of the White House Conference on Global Climate Change was to ``tap the real-world experiences`` of diverse participants and seek ideas and information for meeting the President`s goals. During the opening session, senior administration officials defined the challenge ahead and encouraged open and frank conversation about the best possible ways to meet it.

  1. Global/Local Dynamic Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pfeffer, A; Das, S; Lawless, D; Ng, B

    2006-10-10

    Many dynamic systems involve a number of entities that are largely independent of each other but interact with each other via a subset of state variables. We present global/local dynamic models (GLDMs) to capture these kinds of systems. In a GLDM, the state of an entity is decomposed into a globally influenced state that depends on other entities, and a locally influenced state that depends only on the entity itself. We present an inference algorithm for GLDMs called global/local particle filtering, that introduces the principle of reasoning globally about global dynamics and locally about local dynamics. We have applied GLDMs to an asymmetric urban warfare environment, in which enemy units form teams to attack important targets, and the task is to detect such teams as they form. Experimental results for this application show that global/local particle filtering outperforms ordinary particle filtering and factored particle filtering.

  2. SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Convergence of the Uncertainty Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bixler, Nathan E.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Mattie, Patrick D.; Ghosh, S. Tina

    2014-02-01

    This paper describes the convergence of MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) probabilistic results of offsite consequences for the uncertainty analysis of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The consequence metrics evaluated are individual latent-cancer fatality (LCF) risk and individual early fatality risk. Consequence results are presented as conditional risk (i.e., assuming the accident occurs, risk per event) to individuals of the public as a result of the accident. In order to verify convergence for this uncertainty analysis, as recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards, a ‘high’ source term from the original population of Monte Carlo runs has been selected to be used for: (1) a study of the distribution of consequence results stemming solely from epistemic uncertainty in the MACCS2 parameters (i.e., separating the effect from the source term uncertainty), and (2) a comparison between Simple Random Sampling (SRS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) in order to validate the original results obtained with LHS. Three replicates (each using a different random seed) of size 1,000 each using LHS and another set of three replicates of size 1,000 using SRS are analyzed. The results show that the LCF risk results are well converged with either LHS or SRS sampling. The early fatality risk results are less well converged at radial distances beyond 2 miles, and this is expected due to the sparse data (predominance of “zero” results).

  3. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment. Volume 3, Appendices C, D, E, F, and G

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A.

    1995-01-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the third of a three-volume document describing the project and contains descriptions of the probability assessment principles; the expert identification and selection process; the weighting methods used; the inverse modeling methods; case structures; and summaries of the consequence codes.

  4. Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Gerald; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Mueller, C.; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2013-12-16

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and will thus be directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway that result in end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 watts per square meter. The mean biophysical impact on crop yield with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17 percent reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11 percent, increase area of major crops by 12 percent, and reduce consumption by 2 percent. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences includes model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

  5. Biogenic carbon fluxes from global agricultural production and consumption

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wolf, Julie; West, Tristram O.; Le Page, Yannick LB; Kyle, G. Page; Zhang, Xuesong; Collatz, George; Imhoff, Marc L.

    2015-10-01

    Quantification of biogenic carbon fluxes from agricultural lands is needed to generate comprehensive bottom-up estimates of net carbon exchange for global and regional carbon monitoring. We estimated global agricultural carbon fluxes associated with annual crop net primary production (NPP), harvested biomass, and consumption of biomass by humans and livestock. These estimates were combined for a single estimate of net carbon exchange (NCE) and spatially distributed to 0.05 degree resolution using MODIS satellite land cover data. Global crop NPP in 2011 was estimated at 5.25 ± 0.46 Pg C yr-1, of which 2.05 ± 0.05 Pg C yr-1 was harvested and 0.54 Pg C yr-1 was collected from crop residues for livestock fodder. Total livestock feed intake in 2011 was 2.42 ± 0.21 Pg C yr-1, of which 2.31 ± 0.21 Pg C yr-1 was emitted as CO2, 0.07 ± 0.01 Pg C yr-1 was emitted as CH4, and 0.04 Pg C yr-1 was contained within milk and egg production. Livestock grazed an estimated 1.27 Pg C yr-1 in 2011, which constituted 52.4% of total feed intake. Global human food intake was 0.57 ± 0.03 Pg C yr-1 in 2011, the majority of which is respired as CO2. Completed global cropland carbon budgets accounted for the ultimate use of ca. 80% of harvested biomass. The spatial distribution of these fluxes may be used for global carbon monitoring, estimation of regional uncertainty, and for use as input to Earth system models.

  6. Attempt to estimate measurement uncertainty in the Air Force Toxic Chemical Dispersion (AFTOX) model. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zettlemoyer, M.D.

    1990-01-01

    The Air Force Toxic Chemical Dispersion (AFTOX) model is a Gaussian puff dispersion model that predicts plumes, concentrations, and hazard distances of toxic chemical spills. A measurement uncertainty propagation formula derived by Freeman et al. (1986) is used within AFTOX to estimate resulting concentration uncertainties due to the effects of data input uncertainties in wind speed, spill height, emission rate, and the horizontal and vertical Gaussian dispersion parameters, and the results are compared to true uncertainties as estimated by standard deviations computed by Monte Carlo simulations. The measurement uncertainty uncertainty propagation formula was found to overestimate measurement uncertainty in AFTOX-calculated concentrations by at least 350 percent, with overestimates worsening with increasing stability and/or increasing measurement uncertainty.

  7. A Two-Step Approach to Uncertainty Quantification of Core Simulators...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: A Two-Step Approach to Uncertainty Quantification of Core Simulators Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Two-Step Approach to Uncertainty Quantification of ...

  8. ARM - What is Global Warming?

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    is Global Warming? Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans What is Global Warming? Our earth's average temperature stays pretty much the same from year to year. Sometimes it gets very cold in the winter and very hot in the summer where you live. And some years may be a little hotter

  9. ARM - What is Global Warming?

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    is Global Warming? Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans What is Global Warming? The surface temperature of each of the planets in our solar system depends on a process called the heat budget. This budget, like any other type of budget, remains balanced if the amount (of energy)

  10. Principal Associate Director - Global Security

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Principal Associate Director - Global Security As Principal Associate Director for Global Security, Terry Wallace leads Laboratory programs with special focus on developing and applying the scientific and engineering capabilities to address complex national and global security threats. Contact Operator Los Alamos National Laboratory (505) 667-5061 Wallace's expertise is forensic seismology, a highly specialized discipline focusing on detection and quantification of nuclear tests. Terry C.

  11. Development of an Integrated Global Energy Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1999-07-08

    The primary objective of this research was to develop a forefront analysis tool for application to enhance understanding of long-term, global, nuclear-energy and nuclear-material futures. To this end, an existing economics-energy-environmental (E{sup 3}) model was adopted, modified, and elaborated to examine this problem in a multi-regional (13), long-term ({approximately}2,100) context. The E{sup 3} model so developed was applied to create a Los Alamos presence in this E{sup 3} area through ''niche analyses'' that provide input to the formulation of policies dealing with and shaping of nuclear-energy and nuclear-materials futures. Results from analyses using the E{sup 3} model have been presented at a variety of national and international conferences and workshops. Through use of the E{sup 3} model Los Alamos was afforded the opportunity to participate in a multi-national E{sup 3} study team that is examining a range of global, long-term nuclear issues under the auspices of the IAEA during the 1998-99 period . Finally, the E{sup 3} model developed under this LDRD project is being used as an important component in more recent Nuclear Material Management Systems (NMMS) project.

  12. Global climate change crosses state boundaries

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Changnon, S.A.

    1996-12-31

    The hot, dry summer of 1988 brought the specter of global warming a bit too close for comfort. {open_quotes}Scorching heat, not scientific models, attracted media attention,{close_quotes} says Stanley A. Changnon, senior scientist with the Illinois State Water Survey in Champaign, Illinois. Rising temperatures in the late 1980`s prompted individual states to begin to take action to curb greenhouse-gas emissions. A 1990 report by the National Governors Association identified two guiding principles for addressing climate change issues. {open_quotes}First, that energy policy must be at the center of any efforts to control greenhouse-gas emissions. Second, that state can...restrict emissions through state policies related to public utilities, land use, transportation, and even taxation,{close_quotes} Changnon says. Even if concerns for global warming prove to be overblown, states decided to act for broader economic and environmental reasons. Such initiatives not only save money, but they improve air quality and leave the nation more energy independent,{close_quotes} Changnon says.

  13. Enlighten Your Research Global Program

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enlighten Your Research Global Program Science Engagement Move your data Programs & Workshops CrossConnects Workshop Series Operating Innovative Networks Workshop Series Enlighten...

  14. Aviation Technology | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Read More Ceramic Matrix Composites Improve Engine Efficiency Ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) are a breakthrough materials technology for jet engines that started at our Global ...

  15. Office of Global Material Security

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    at Wilton Park, United Kingdom, on the growing challenge of securing the global maritime supply chain. In total, 55 participants from 15 countries and 9 international...

  16. Global vegetation model diversity and the risks of climate-driven ecosystem shifts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2013-11-08

    Climate change is modifying global biogeochemical cycles, and is expected to exert increasingly large effects in the future. How these changes will in turn affect and interact with the structure and function of particular ecosystems is unclear, however, both because of scientific uncertainties and the very diversity of global vegetation models in use. Writing in Environmental Research Letters, Warszawski et al. (1) aggregate results from a group of models, across a range of emissions scenarios and climate data, to investigate these risks. Although the models frequently disagree about which specific regions are at risk, they consistently predict a greater chance of ecosystem restructuring with more warming; this risk roughly doubles between 2 and 3 °C increases in global mean temperature. The innovative work of Warszawski et al. represents an important first step towards fully consistent multi-model, multi-scenario assessments of the future risks to global ecosystems.

  17. Improving SFR Economics through Innovations from Thermal Design and Analysis Aspects

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haihua Zhao; Hongbin Zhang; Vincent Mousseau; Per F. Peterson

    2008-06-01

    Achieving economic competitiveness as compared to LWRs and other Generation IV (Gen-IV) reactors is one of the major requirements for large-scale investment in commercial sodium cooled fast reactor (SFR) power plants. Advances in R&D for advanced SFR fuel and structural materials provide key long-term opportunities to improve SFR economics. In addition, other new opportunities are emerging to further improve SFR economics. This paper provides an overview on potential ideas from the perspective of thermal hydraulics to improve SFR economics. These include a new hybrid loop-pool reactor design to further optimize economics, safety, and reliability of SFRs with more flexibility, a multiple reheat and intercooling helium Brayton cycle to improve plant thermal efficiency and reduce safety related overnight and operation costs, and modern multi-physics thermal analysis methods to reduce analysis uncertainties and associated requirements for over-conservatism in reactor design. This paper reviews advances in all three of these areas and their potential beneficial impacts on SFR economics.

  18. TRITIUM UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR SURFACE WATER SAMPLES AT THE SAVANNAH RIVER SITE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Atkinson, R.

    2012-07-31

    Radiochemical analyses of surface water samples, in the framework of Environmental Monitoring, have associated uncertainties for the radioisotopic results reported. These uncertainty analyses pertain to the tritium results from surface water samples collected at five locations on the Savannah River near the U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS). Uncertainties can result from the field-sampling routine, can be incurred during transport due to the physical properties of the sample, from equipment limitations, and from the measurement instrumentation used. The uncertainty reported by the SRS in their Annual Site Environmental Report currently considers only the counting uncertainty in the measurements, which is the standard reporting protocol for radioanalytical chemistry results. The focus of this work is to provide an overview of all uncertainty components associated with SRS tritium measurements, estimate the total uncertainty according to ISO 17025, and to propose additional experiments to verify some of the estimated uncertainties. The main uncertainty components discovered and investigated in this paper are tritium absorption or desorption in the sample container, HTO/H{sub 2}O isotopic effect during distillation, pipette volume, and tritium standard uncertainty. The goal is to quantify these uncertainties and to establish a combined uncertainty in order to increase the scientific depth of the SRS Annual Site Environmental Report.

  19. Optimal Control of Distributed Energy Resources and Demand Response under Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Siddiqui, Afzal; Stadler, Michael; Marnay, Chris; Lai, Judy

    2010-06-01

    We take the perspective of a microgrid that has installed distribution energy resources (DER) in the form of distributed generation with combined heat and power applications. Given uncertain electricity and fuel prices, the microgrid minimizes its expected annual energy bill for various capacity sizes. In almost all cases, there is an economic and environmental advantage to using DER in conjunction with demand response (DR): the expected annualized energy bill is reduced by 9percent while CO2 emissions decline by 25percent. Furthermore, the microgrid's risk is diminished as DER may be deployed depending on prevailing market conditions and local demand. In order to test a policy measure that would place a weight on CO2 emissions, we use a multi-criteria objective function that minimizes a weighted average of expected costs and emissions. We find that greater emphasis on CO2 emissions has a beneficial environmental impact only if DR is available and enough reserve generation capacity exists. Finally, greater uncertainty results in higher expected costs and risk exposure, the effects of which may be mitigated by selecting a larger capacity.

  20. MONTE-CARLO BURNUP CALCULATION UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION AND PROPAGATION DETERMINATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nichols, T.; Sternat, M.; Charlton, W.

    2011-05-08

    MONTEBURNS is a Monte-Carlo depletion routine utilizing MCNP and ORIGEN 2.2. Uncertainties exist in the MCNP transport calculation, but this information is not passed to the depletion calculation in ORIGEN or saved. To quantify this transport uncertainty and determine how it propagates between burnup steps, a statistical analysis of a multiple repeated depletion runs is performed. The reactor model chosen is the Oak Ridge Research Reactor (ORR) in a single assembly, infinite lattice configuration. This model was burned for a 25.5 day cycle broken down into three steps. The output isotopics as well as effective multiplication factor (k-effective) were tabulated and histograms were created at each burnup step using the Scott Method to determine the bin width. It was expected that the gram quantities and k-effective histograms would produce normally distributed results since they were produced from a Monte-Carlo routine, but some of results do not. The standard deviation at each burnup step was consistent between fission product isotopes as expected, while the uranium isotopes created some unique results. The variation in the quantity of uranium was small enough that, from the reaction rate MCNP tally, round off error occurred producing a set of repeated results with slight variation. Statistical analyses were performed using the {chi}{sup 2} test against a normal distribution for several isotopes and the k-effective results. While the isotopes failed to reject the null hypothesis of being normally distributed, the {chi}{sup 2} statistic grew through the steps in the k-effective test. The null hypothesis was rejected in the later steps. These results suggest, for a high accuracy solution, MCNP cell material quantities less than 100 grams and greater kcode parameters are needed to minimize uncertainty propagation and minimize round off effects.

  1. Thermal hydraulic limits analysis using statistical propagation of parametric uncertainties

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiang, K. Y.; Hu, L. W.; Forget, B.

    2012-07-01

    The MIT Research Reactor (MITR) is evaluating the conversion from highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low enrichment uranium (LEU) fuel. In addition to the fuel element re-design, a reactor power upgraded from 6 MW to 7 MW is proposed in order to maintain the same reactor performance of the HEU core. Previous approach in analyzing the impact of engineering uncertainties on thermal hydraulic limits via the use of engineering hot channel factors (EHCFs) was unable to explicitly quantify the uncertainty and confidence level in reactor parameters. The objective of this study is to develop a methodology for MITR thermal hydraulic limits analysis by statistically combining engineering uncertainties with an aim to eliminate unnecessary conservatism inherent in traditional analyses. This method was employed to analyze the Limiting Safety System Settings (LSSS) for the MITR, which is the avoidance of the onset of nucleate boiling (ONB). Key parameters, such as coolant channel tolerances and heat transfer coefficients, were considered as normal distributions using Oracle Crystal Ball to calculate ONB. The LSSS power is determined with 99.7% confidence level. The LSSS power calculated using this new methodology is 9.1 MW, based on core outlet coolant temperature of 60 deg. C, and primary coolant flow rate of 1800 gpm, compared to 8.3 MW obtained from the analytical method using the EHCFs with same operating conditions. The same methodology was also used to calculate the safety limit (SL) for the MITR, conservatively determined using onset of flow instability (OFI) as the criterion, to verify that adequate safety margin exists between LSSS and SL. The calculated SL is 10.6 MW, which is 1.5 MW higher than LSSS. (authors)

  2. Preliminary Results on Uncertainty Quantification for Pattern Analytics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stracuzzi, David John; Brost, Randolph; Chen, Maximillian Gene; Malinas, Rebecca; Peterson, Matthew Gregor; Phillips, Cynthia A.; Robinson, David G.; Woodbridge, Diane

    2015-09-01

    This report summarizes preliminary research into uncertainty quantification for pattern ana- lytics within the context of the Pattern Analytics to Support High-Performance Exploitation and Reasoning (PANTHER) project. The primary focus of PANTHER was to make large quantities of remote sensing data searchable by analysts. The work described in this re- port adds nuance to both the initial data preparation steps and the search process. Search queries are transformed from does the specified pattern exist in the data? to how certain is the system that the returned results match the query? We show example results for both data processing and search, and discuss a number of possible improvements for each.

  3. Molecular nonlinear dynamics and protein thermal uncertainty quantification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xia, Kelin [Department of Mathematics, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States)] [Department of Mathematics, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States); Wei, Guo-Wei, E-mail: wei@math.msu.edu [Department of Mathematics, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States) [Department of Mathematics, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States); Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States); Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Michigan State University, Michigan 48824 (United States)

    2014-03-15

    This work introduces molecular nonlinear dynamics (MND) as a new approach for describing protein folding and aggregation. By using a mode system, we show that the MND of disordered proteins is chaotic while that of folded proteins exhibits intrinsically low dimensional manifolds (ILDMs). The stability of ILDMs is found to strongly correlate with protein energies. We propose a novel method for protein thermal uncertainty quantification based on persistently invariant ILDMs. Extensive comparison with experimental data and the state-of-the-art methods in the field validate the proposed new method for protein B-factor prediction.

  4. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model and Parameter Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2004-03-01

    The objective of the research described in this report is the development and application of a methodology for comprehensively assessing the hydrogeologic uncertainties involved in dose assessment, including uncertainties associated with conceptual models, parameters, and scenarios. This report describes and applies a statistical method to quantitatively estimate the combined uncertainty in model predictions arising from conceptual model and parameter uncertainties. The method relies on model averaging to combine the predictions of a set of alternative models. Implementation is driven by the available data. When there is minimal site-specific data the method can be carried out with prior parameter estimates based on generic data and subjective prior model probabilities. For sites with observations of system behavior (and optionally data characterizing model parameters), the method uses model calibration to update the prior parameter estimates and model probabilities based on the correspondence between model predictions and site observations. The set of model alternatives can contain both simplified and complex models, with the requirement that all models be based on the same set of data. The method was applied to the geostatistical modeling of air permeability at a fractured rock site. Seven alternative variogram models of log air permeability were considered to represent data from single-hole pneumatic injection tests in six boreholes at the site. Unbiased maximum likelihood estimates of variogram and drift parameters were obtained for each model. Standard information criteria provided an ambiguous ranking of the models, which would not justify selecting one of them and discarding all others as is commonly done in practice. Instead, some of the models were eliminated based on their negligibly small updated probabilities and the rest were used to project the measured log permeabilities by kriging onto a rock volume containing the six boreholes. These four

  5. Economics of a multimedia approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phillips, J.B.; Hindawi, M.A.

    1996-02-01

    One of the major driving forces in the decision of a facility operator to implement a multimedia approach to examining pollution is the economics of the situation. A multimedia approach has gained favor with many facility operators because it has been shown to be more cost-effective than dealing with a number of phases, or media, separately. To a great extent, this is due to elimination of inefficiencies involved with cross-media transfer of pollutants. Even more basic to the problem of industrial pollution is the generation of waste. All industrial processes yield some percentage of waste products, but frequently during the design phase the costs associated with producing wastes are underestimated. As part of this series on multimedia issues, the costs related to manufacturing waste products are examined in detail. An obvious inefficiency associated with waste generation is the loss of material that potentially could be converted to salable products. The value of commodity raw materials frequently is ignored when considering the total costs of pollution generation at an industrial facility. Although the economics of pollution generation are affected by a number of factors, including regulatory costs, disposal costs and impacts on health and safety, this article focuses on the economics of lost production in industrial facilities.

  6. Generating a fault-tolerant global clock using high-speed control signals for the MetaNet architecture

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ofek, Y. )

    1994-05-01

    This work describes a new technique, based on exchanging control signals between neighboring nodes, for constructing a stable and fault-tolerant global clock in a distributed system with an arbitrary topology. It is shown that it is possible to construct a global clock reference with time step that is much smaller than the propagation delay over the network's links. The synchronization algorithm ensures that the global clock tick' has a stable periodicity, and therefore, it is possible to tolerate failures of links and clocks that operate faster and/or slower than nominally specified, as well as hard failures. The approach taken in this work is to generate a global clock from the ensemble of the local transmission clocks and not to directly synchronize these high-speed clocks. The steady-state algorithm, which generates the global clock, is executed in hardware by the network interface of each node. At the network interface, it is possible to measure accurately the propagation delay between neighboring nodes with a small error or uncertainty and thereby to achieve global synchronization that is proportional to these error measurements. It is shown that the local clock drift (or rate uncertainty) has only a secondary effect on the maximum global clock rate. The synchronization algorithm can tolerate any physical failure. 18 refs.

  7. Global production through 2005

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Foreman, N.E.

    1996-12-01

    Two companion studies released recently should provide great food for thought among geo-political strategists and various national governments. If predictions contained in these Petroconsultants studies of oil and gas production trends for the next 10 years are realized, there will be great repercussions for net exporters and importers, alike. After analyzing and predicting trends within each of the world`s significant producing nations for the 1996--2005 period, the crude oil and condensate report concludes tat global production will jump nearly 24%. By contrast, worldwide gas output will leap 40%. The cast of characters among producers and exporters that will benefit from these increases varies considerably for each fuel. On the oil side, Russia and the OPEC members, particularly the Persian Gulf nations, will be back in the driver`s seat in terms of affecting export and pricing patterns. On the gas side, the leading producers will be an interesting mix of mostly non-OPEC countries. The reemergence of Persian Gulf oil producers, coupled with an anticipated long-term decline among top non-OPEC producing nations should present a sobering picture to government planners within large net importers, such as the US. They are likely to find themselves in much the same supply trap as was experienced in the 1970s, only this time the dependence on foreign oil supplies will be much worse. Gas supplies will not be similarly constrained, and some substitution for oil is probable. Here, two articles, ``World oil industry is set for transition`` and ``Worldwide gas surges forward in next decade,`` present a summary of the findings detailed in Petroconsultants` recent studies.

  8. Quantifying uncertainty in material damage from vibrational data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Butler, T.; Huhtala, A.; Juntunen, M.

    2015-02-15

    The response of a vibrating beam to a force depends on many physical parameters including those determined by material properties. Damage caused by fatigue or cracks results in local reductions in stiffness parameters and may drastically alter the response of the beam. Data obtained from the vibrating beam are often subject to uncertainties and/or errors typically modeled using probability densities. The goal of this paper is to estimate and quantify the uncertainty in damage modeled as a local reduction in stiffness using uncertain data. We present various frameworks and methods for solving this parameter determination problem. We also describe a mathematical analysis to determine and compute useful output data for each method. We apply the various methods in a specified sequence that allows us to interface the various inputs and outputs of these methods in order to enhance the inferences drawn from the numerical results obtained from each method. Numerical results are presented using both simulated and experimentally obtained data from physically damaged beams.

  9. The Uncertainty in the Local Seismic Response Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pasculli, A.; Pugliese, A.; Romeo, R. W.; Sano, T.

    2008-07-08

    In the present paper is shown the influence on the local seismic response analysis exerted by considering dispersion and uncertainty in the seismic input as well as in the dynamic properties of soils. In a first attempt a 1D numerical model is developed accounting for both the aleatory nature of the input motion and the stochastic variability of the dynamic properties of soils. The seismic input is introduced in a non-conventional way through a power spectral density, for which an elastic response spectrum, derived--for instance--by a conventional seismic hazard analysis, is required with an appropriate level of reliability. The uncertainty in the geotechnical properties of soils are instead investigated through a well known simulation technique (Monte Carlo method) for the construction of statistical ensembles. The result of a conventional local seismic response analysis given by a deterministic elastic response spectrum is replaced, in our approach, by a set of statistical elastic response spectra, each one characterized by an appropriate level of probability to be reached or exceeded. The analyses have been carried out for a well documented real case-study. Lastly, we anticipate a 2D numerical analysis to investigate also the spatial variability of soil's properties.

  10. The role of the uncertainty in code development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barre, F.

    1997-07-01

    From a general point of view, all the results of a calculation should be given with their uncertainty. It is of most importance in nuclear safety where sizing of the safety systems, therefore protection of the population and the environment essentially depends on the calculation results. Until these last years, the safety analysis was performed with conservative tools. Two types of critics can be made. Firstly, conservative margins can be too large and it may be possible to reduce the cost of the plant or its operation with a best estimate approach. Secondly, some of the conservative hypotheses may not really conservative in the full range of physical events which can occur during an accident. Simpson gives an interesting example: in some cases, the majoration of the residual power during a small break LOCA can lead to an overprediction of the swell level and thus of an overprediction of the core cooling, which is opposite to a conservative prediction. A last question is: does the accumulation of conservative hypotheses for a problem always give a conservative result? The two phase flow physics, mainly dealing with situation of mechanical and thermal non-equilibrium, is too much complicated to answer these questions with a simple engineer judgement. The objective of this paper is to make a review of the quantification of the uncertainties which can be made during code development and validation.

  11. Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Siddiqui, Afzal; Maribu, Karl

    2008-08-18

    The ongoing deregulation of electricity industries worldwide is providing incentives for microgrids to use small-scale distributed generation (DG) and combined heat and power (CHP) applications via heat exchangers (HXs) to meet local energy loads. Although the electric-only efficiency of DG is lower than that of central-station production, relatively high tariff rates and the potential for CHP applications increase the attraction of on-site generation. Nevertheless, a microgrid contemplatingthe installation of gas-fired DG has to be aware of the uncertainty in the natural gas price. Treatment of uncertainty via real options increases the value of the investment opportunity, which then delays the adoption decision as the opportunity cost of exercising the investment option increases as well. In this paper, we take the perspective of a microgrid that can proceed in a sequential manner with DG capacity and HX investment in order to reduce its exposure to risk from natural gas price volatility. In particular, with the availability of the HX, the microgrid faces a tradeoff between reducing its exposure to the natural gas price and maximising its cost savings. By varying the volatility parameter, we find that the microgrid prefers a direct investment strategy for low levels of volatility and a sequential one for higher levels of volatility.

  12. Data Filtering Impact on PV Degradation Rates and Uncertainty (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jordan, D. C.; Kurtz, S. R.

    2012-03-01

    To sustain the commercial success of photovoltaics (PV) it becomes vital to know how power output decreases with time. In order to predict power delivery, degradation rates must be determined accurately. Data filtering, any data treatment assessment of long-term field behavior, is discussed as part of a more comprehensive uncertainty analysis and can be one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in long-term performance studies. Several distinct filtering methods such as outlier removal and inclusion of only sunny days on several different metrics such as PVUSA, performance ratio, DC power to plane-of-array irradiance ratio, uncorrected, and temperature-corrected were examined. PVUSA showed the highest sensitivity while temperature-corrected power over irradiance ratio was found to be the least sensitive to data filtering conditions. Using this ratio it is demonstrated that quantification of degradation rates with a statistical accuracy of +/- 0.2%/year within 4 years of field data is possible on two crystalline silicon and two thin-film systems.

  13. Analysis and Reduction of Complex Networks Under Uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghanem, Roger G

    2014-07-31

    This effort was a collaboration with Youssef Marzouk of MIT, Omar Knio of Duke University (at the time at Johns Hopkins University) and Habib Najm of Sandia National Laboratories. The objective of this effort was to develop the mathematical and algorithmic capacity to analyze complex networks under uncertainty. Of interest were chemical reaction networks and smart grid networks. The statements of work for USC focused on the development of stochastic reduced models for uncertain networks. The USC team was led by Professor Roger Ghanem and consisted of one graduate student and a postdoc. The contributions completed by the USC team consisted of 1) methodology and algorithms to address the eigenvalue problem, a problem of significance in the stability of networks under stochastic perturbations, 2) methodology and algorithms to characterize probability measures on graph structures with random flows. This is an important problem in characterizing random demand (encountered in smart grid) and random degradation (encountered in infrastructure systems), as well as modeling errors in Markov Chains (with ubiquitous relevance !). 3) methodology and algorithms for treating inequalities in uncertain systems. This is an important problem in the context of models for material failure and network flows under uncertainty where conditions of failure or flow are described in the form of inequalities between the state variables.

  14. Variables Affecting Economic Development of Wind Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Tegen, S.

    2008-07-01

    NREL's JEDI Wind model performed an analysis of wind-power-related economic development drivers. Economic development benefits for wind and coal were estimated using NREL's JEDI Wind and JEDI Coal models.

  15. WE-B-19A-01: SRT II: Uncertainties in SRT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dieterich, S; Schlesinger, D; Geneser, S

    2014-06-15

    SRS delivery has undergone major technical changes in the last decade, transitioning from predominantly frame-based treatment delivery to imageguided, frameless SRS. It is important for medical physicists working in SRS to understand the magnitude and sources of uncertainty involved in delivering SRS treatments for a multitude of technologies (Gamma Knife, CyberKnife, linac-based SRS and protons). Sources of SRS planning and delivery uncertainty include dose calculation, dose fusion, and intra- and inter-fraction motion. Dose calculations for small fields are particularly difficult because of the lack of electronic equilibrium and greater effect of inhomogeneities within and near the PTV. Going frameless introduces greater setup uncertainties that allows for potentially increased intra- and interfraction motion, The increased use of multiple imaging modalities to determine the tumor volume, necessitates (deformable) image and contour fusion, and the resulting uncertainties introduced in the image registration process further contribute to overall treatment planning uncertainties. Each of these uncertainties must be quantified and their impact on treatment delivery accuracy understood. If necessary, the uncertainties may then be accounted for during treatment planning either through techniques to make the uncertainty explicit, or by the appropriate addition of PTV margins. Further complicating matters, the statistics of 1-5 fraction SRS treatments differ from traditional margin recipes relying on Poisson statistics. In this session, we will discuss uncertainties introduced during each step of the SRS treatment planning and delivery process and present margin recipes to appropriately account for such uncertainties. Learning Objectives: To understand the major contributors to the total delivery uncertainty in SRS for Gamma Knife, CyberKnife, and linac-based SRS. Learn the various uncertainties introduced by image fusion, deformable image registration, and contouring

  16. Global Research on On The Verge | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    this video on www.youtube.com, or enable JavaScript if it is disabled in your browser. Paul Miller from On the Verge takes a tour of GE's Global Research Center to see new...

  17. Long-term global nuclear energy and fuel cycle strategies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1997-09-24

    The Global Nuclear Vision Project is examining, using scenario building techniques, a range of long-term nuclear energy futures. The exploration and assessment of optimal nuclear fuel-cycle and material strategies is an essential element of the study. To this end, an established global E{sup 3} (energy/economics/environmental) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed using this multi-regional E{sup 3} model, wherein future demands for nuclear power are projected in price competition with other energy sources under a wide range of long-term demographic (population, workforce size and productivity), economic (price-, population-, and income-determined demand for energy services, price- and population-modified GNP, resource depletion, world-market fossil energy prices), policy (taxes, tariffs, sanctions), and top-level technological (energy intensity and end-use efficiency improvements) drivers. Using the framework provided by the global E{sup 3} model, the impacts of both external and internal drivers are investigated. The ability to connect external and internal drivers through this modeling framework allows the study of impacts and tradeoffs between fossil- versus nuclear-fuel burning, that includes interactions between cost, environmental, proliferation, resource, and policy issues.

  18. Techno-Economic Modeling, Analysis, and Support

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Techno-Economic Modeling, Analysis, and Support - Sandia ... Transportation Energy Co-Evolution of Biofuels ... Biological and Environmental Research Collaborations ...

  19. Environmentally and Economically Beneficial Practices on Federal...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Environmentally and Economically Beneficial Practices on Federal Landscaped Grounds This Environmental Protection Agency report contains recommendations for a series of...

  20. Economic Impact Tools | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Economic Impact Tools Economic Impact Tools Photo of a well drilling rig. A man stands on the platform while another is climbing the rig. Technology Feasibility and Cost Analysis is performed to determine the potential economic viability of geothermal energy production and helps to identify which technologies have the greatest likelihood of economic success. Results from technology feasibility analysis efforts provide input to the Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) research, development, and

  1. Economic Impacts and Business Opportunities | NREL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Economic Impacts and Business Opportunities NREL contributes to the local and national economy in various ways. We are one of the largest employers in Jefferson County, Colorado, and we provide business opportunities for small businesses and large corporations alike. Economic Impact The economic impact of NREL operations on the nation totaled $872 million and in Colorado, totaled $701 million in fiscal year 2014. NREL is a top ten employer in Jefferson County where the economic benefit totaled

  2. Reducing uncertainty in high-resolution sea ice models.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peterson, Kara J.; Bochev, Pavel Blagoveston

    2013-07-01

    Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system, reflecting a significant amount of solar radiation, insulating the ocean from the atmosphere and influencing ocean circulation by modifying the salinity of the upper ocean. The thickness and extent of Arctic sea ice have shown a significant decline in recent decades with implications for global climate as well as regional geopolitics. Increasing interest in exploration as well as climate feedback effects make predictive mathematical modeling of sea ice a task of tremendous practical import. Satellite data obtained over the last few decades have provided a wealth of information on sea ice motion and deformation. The data clearly show that ice deformation is focused along narrow linear features and this type of deformation is not well-represented in existing models. To improve sea ice dynamics we have incorporated an anisotropic rheology into the Los Alamos National Laboratory global sea ice model, CICE. Sensitivity analyses were performed using the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA) to determine the impact of material parameters on sea ice response functions. Two material strength parameters that exhibited the most significant impact on responses were further analyzed to evaluate their influence on quantitative comparisons between model output and data. The sensitivity analysis along with ten year model runs indicate that while the anisotropic rheology provides some benefit in velocity predictions, additional improvements are required to make this material model a viable alternative for global sea ice simulations.

  3. Economic Development Impact of 1,000 MW of Wind Energy in Texas

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reategui, S.; Hendrickson, S.

    2011-08-01

    Texas has approximately 9,727 MW of wind energy capacity installed, making it a global leader in installed wind energy. As a result of the significant investment the wind industry has brought to Texas, it is important to better understand the economic development impacts of wind energy in Texas. This report analyzes the jobs and economic impacts of 1,000 MW of wind power generation in the state. The impacts highlighted in this report can be used in policy and planning decisions and can be scaled to get a sense of the economic development opportunities associated with other wind scenarios. This report can also inform stakeholders in other states about the potential economic impacts associated with the development of 1,000 MW of new wind power generation and the relationships of different elements in the state economy.

  4. Laser Manufacturing | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Laser Manufacturing at GE Global Research Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window) Share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Click to share (Opens in new window) Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window) Laser Manufacturing at GE Global Research Learn how laser sintering, an additive laser manufacturing process practiced at GE Global Research, makes parts from metal powder. You Might Also Like Munich_interior_V 10 Years ON: From

  5. Disentangling climatic and anthropogenic controls on global terrestrial evapotranspiration trends

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Wei, Yaxing; Thornton, Peter E.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Fu, Wenting; Fisher, Joshua B.; Dickinson, Robert E.; Shem, Willis; et al

    2015-09-08

    Here, we examined natural and anthropogenic controls on terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) changes from 1982-2010 using multiple estimates from remote sensing-based datasets and process-oriented land surface models. A significant increased trend of ET in each hemisphere was consistently revealed by observationally-constrained data and multi-model ensembles that considered historic natural and anthropogenic drivers. The climate impacts were simulated to determine the spatiotemporal variations in ET. Globally, rising CO2 ranked second in these models after the predominant climatic influences, and yielded a decreasing trend in canopy transpiration and ET, especially for tropical forests and high-latitude shrub land. Increased nitrogen deposition slightly amplified globalmore » ET via enhanced plant growth. Land-use-induced ET responses, albeit with substantial uncertainties across the factorial analysis, were minor globally, but pronounced locally, particularly over regions with intensive land-cover changes. Our study highlights the importance of employing multi-stream ET and ET-component estimates to quantify the strengthening anthropogenic fingerprint in the global hydrologic cycle.« less

  6. Nitrogen Deposition: A Component of Global Change Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Norby, Richard J.

    1997-12-31

    The global cycles of carbon and nitrogen are being perturbed by human activities that increase the transfer from large pools of nonreactive forms of the elements to reactive forms that are essential to the functioning of the terrestrial biosphere. The cycles are closely linked at all scales, and global change analyses must consider carbon and nitrogen cycles together. The increasing amount of nitrogen originating from fossil fuel combustion and deposited to terrestrial ecosystems as nitrogen oxides could increase the capacity of ecosystems to sequester carbon thereby removing some of the excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and slowing the development of greenhouse warming. Several global and ecosystem models have calculated the amount of carbon sequestration that can be attributed to nitrogen deposition based on assumptions about the allocation of nitrogen among ecosystem components with different carbon-nitrogen ratios. They support the premise that nitrogen deposition is responsible for a an increasing terrestrial carbon sink since industrialization began, but there are large uncertainties related to the continued capacity of ecosystems to retain exogenous nitrogen. Whether terrestrial ecosystems continue to sequester additional carbon will depend in part on their response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, which is widely thought to be constrained by limited nitrogen availability. Ecosystem models generally support the conclusion that the responses of ecosystems to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide will be larger, and the range of possible responses will be wider, in ecosystems with increased nitrogen inputs originating as atmospheric deposition.

  7. An Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Studying the Effect of Spatial Heterogeneity in Reservoir Permeability on CO2 Sequestration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Engel, David W.; Lin, Guang; Fang, Yilin; Fang, Zhufeng

    2013-10-01

    In this paper, we introduce an uncertainty quantification (UQ) software framework for carbon sequestration, focused on the effect of spatial heterogeneity of reservoir properties on CO2 migration. We use a sequential Gaussian method (SGSIM) to generate realizations of permeability fields with various spatial statistical attributes. To deal with the computational difficulties, we integrate the following ideas/approaches. First, we use three different sampling approaches (probabilistic collocation, quasi-Monte Carlo, and adaptive sampling) to reduce the number of forward calculations while trying to explore the parameter space and quantify the input uncertainty. Second, we use eSTOMP as the forward modeling simulator. eSTOMP is implemented with the Global Arrays toolkit that is based on one-sided inter-processor communication and supports a shared memory programming style on distributed memory platforms, providing a highly-scalable performance. Third, we built an adaptive system infrastructure to select the best possible data transfer mechanisms, to optimally allocate system resources to improve performance and to integrate software packages and data for composing carbon sequestration simulation, computation, analysis, estimation and visualization. We demonstrate the framework with a given CO2 injection scenario in heterogeneous sandstone reservoirs.

  8. Validation and quantification of uncertainty in coupled climate models using network analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bracco, Annalisa

    2015-08-10

    We developed a fast, robust and scalable methodology to examine, quantify, and visualize climate patterns and their relationships. It is based on a set of notions, algorithms and metrics used in the study of graphs, referred to as complex network analysis. This approach can be applied to explain known climate phenomena in terms of an underlying network structure and to uncover regional and global linkages in the climate system, while comparing general circulation models outputs with observations. The proposed method is based on a two-layer network representation, and is substantially new within the available network methodologies developed for climate studies. At the first layer, gridded climate data are used to identify ‘‘areas’’, i.e., geographical regions that are highly homogeneous in terms of the given climate variable. At the second layer, the identified areas are interconnected with links of varying strength, forming a global climate network. The robustness of the method (i.e. the ability to separate between topological distinct fields, while identifying correctly similarities) has been extensively tested. It has been proved that it provides a reliable, fast framework for comparing and ranking the ability of climate models of reproducing observed climate patterns and their connectivity. We further developed the methodology to account for lags in the connectivity between climate patterns and refined our area identification algorithm to account for autocorrelation in the data. The new methodology based on complex network analysis has been applied to state-of-the-art climate model simulations that participated to the last IPCC (International Panel for Climate Change) assessment to verify their performances, quantify uncertainties, and uncover changes in global linkages between past and future projections. Network properties of modeled sea surface temperature and rainfall over 1956–2005 have been constrained towards observations or reanalysis data sets

  9. Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Tools, Algorithms, and Methodologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    David E. Shropshire

    2009-05-01

    The Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI) Systems Analysis supports engineering economic analyses and trade-studies, and requires a requisite reference cost basis to support adequate analysis rigor. In this regard, the AFCI program has created a reference set of economic documentation. The documentation consists of the “Advanced Fuel Cycle (AFC) Cost Basis” report (Shropshire, et al. 2007), “AFCI Economic Analysis” report, and the “AFCI Economic Tools, Algorithms, and Methodologies Report.” Together, these documents provide the reference cost basis, cost modeling basis, and methodologies needed to support AFCI economic analysis. The application of the reference cost data in the cost and econometric systems analysis models will be supported by this report. These methodologies include: the energy/environment/economic evaluation of nuclear technology penetration in the energy market—domestic and internationally—and impacts on AFCI facility deployment, uranium resource modeling to inform the front-end fuel cycle costs, facility first-of-a-kind to nth-of-a-kind learning with application to deployment of AFCI facilities, cost tradeoffs to meet nuclear non-proliferation requirements, and international nuclear facility supply/demand analysis. The economic analysis will be performed using two cost models. VISION.ECON will be used to evaluate and compare costs under dynamic conditions, consistent with the cases and analysis performed by the AFCI Systems Analysis team. Generation IV Excel Calculations of Nuclear Systems (G4-ECONS) will provide static (snapshot-in-time) cost analysis and will provide a check on the dynamic results. In future analysis, additional AFCI measures may be developed to show the value of AFCI in closing the fuel cycle. Comparisons can show AFCI in terms of reduced global proliferation (e.g., reduction in enrichment), greater sustainability through preservation of a natural resource (e.g., reduction in uranium ore depletion), value from

  10. Speakers: Glen Sweetnam, EIA Michelle Michot Foss, Chief Energy Economist and Head, Center for Energy Economics, Bureau of

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    7: "Natural Gas: U.S. Markets in a Global Context" Speakers: Glen Sweetnam, EIA Michelle Michot Foss, Chief Energy Economist and Head, Center for Energy Economics, Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas Benjamin Schlesinger, Benjamin Schlesinger and Associates, Inc. Andrew Slaughter, Shell [Note: Recorders did not pick up introduction of panel (see biographies for details on the panelists) or introduction of session.] Glenn: Let me welcome you to

  11. Technical Education | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Technical Education at GE Global Research Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window) Share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Click to share (Opens in new window) Click...

  12. Solar Global | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Republic Zip: 10100 Product: Czech PV developer and investor seeking partnership for its 200MW PV porfolio in the Czech Republic. References: Solar Global1 This article is a...

  13. ARM - What Causes Global Warming?

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans What Causes Global Warming? On earth we get energy from the sun's light. As you know, it gets hot outside if the sun is shining brightly on a summer ...

  14. Aviation Technology | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Read More Innovation 247: We're Always Open At GE Global Research, we work around the clock and across the globe to build, power, move and cure the world. Click the image... ...

  15. Global Warming and Human Health

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    American Geophysical Union Global Warming and Human Health WHEN: Jul 27, 2015 5:30 PM - ... Event Description The main reason we are concerned about human-induced climate change is ...

  16. U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity and the Global Climate Change Initiative (released in AEO2005)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2005-01-01

    On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administrations Global Climate Change Initiative. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas intensity by 18% over the 2002 to 2012 time frame. For the purposes of the initiative, greenhouse gas intensity is defined as the ratio of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to economic output.

  17. U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity and the Global Climate Change Initiative (released in AEO2006)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2006-01-01

    On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administrations Global Climate Change Initiative. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity-defined as the ratio of total U.S. GHG emissions to economic output-by 18% over the 2002 to 2012 time frame.

  18. Global Biogeochemistry Models and Global Carbon Cycle Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Covey, C; Caldeira, K; Guilderson, T; Cameron-Smith, P; Govindasamy, B; Swanston, C; Wickett, M; Mirin, A; Bader, D

    2005-05-27

    The climate modeling community has long envisioned an evolution from physical climate models to ''earth system'' models that include the effects of biology and chemistry, particularly those processes related to the global carbon cycle. The widely reproduced Box 3, Figure 1 from the 2001 IPCC Scientific Assessment schematically describes that evolution. The community generally accepts the premise that understanding and predicting global and regional climate change requires the inclusion of carbon cycle processes in models to fully simulate the feedbacks between the climate system and the carbon cycle. Moreover, models will ultimately be employed to predict atmospheric concentrations of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases as a function of anthropogenic and natural processes, such as industrial emissions, terrestrial carbon fixation, sequestration, land use patterns, etc. Nevertheless, the development of coupled climate-carbon models with demonstrable quantitative skill will require a significant amount of effort and time to understand and validate their behavior at both the process level and as integrated systems. It is important to consider objectively whether the currently proposed strategies to develop and validate earth system models are optimal, or even sufficient, and whether alternative strategies should be pursued. Carbon-climate models are going to be complex, with the carbon cycle strongly interacting with many other components. Off-line process validation will be insufficient. As was found in coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs, feedbacks between model components can amplify small errors and uncertainties in one process to produce large biases in the simulated climate. The persistent tropical western Pacific Ocean ''double ITCZ'' and upper troposphere ''cold pole'' problems are examples. Finding and fixing similar types of problems in coupled carbon-climate models especially will be difficult, given the lack of observations required for diagnosis and validation

  19. Method to Calculate Uncertainty Estimate of Measuring Shortwave Solar Irradiance using Thermopile and Semiconductor Solar Radiometers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reda, I.

    2011-07-01

    The uncertainty of measuring solar irradiance is fundamentally important for solar energy and atmospheric science applications. Without an uncertainty statement, the quality of a result, model, or testing method cannot be quantified, the chain of traceability is broken, and confidence cannot be maintained in the measurement. Measurement results are incomplete and meaningless without a statement of the estimated uncertainty with traceability to the International System of Units (SI) or to another internationally recognized standard. This report explains how to use International Guidelines of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) to calculate such uncertainty. The report also shows that without appropriate corrections to solar measuring instruments (solar radiometers), the uncertainty of measuring shortwave solar irradiance can exceed 4% using present state-of-the-art pyranometers and 2.7% using present state-of-the-art pyrheliometers. Finally, the report demonstrates that by applying the appropriate corrections, uncertainties may be reduced by at least 50%. The uncertainties, with or without the appropriate corrections might not be compatible with the needs of solar energy and atmospheric science applications; yet, this report may shed some light on the sources of uncertainties and the means to reduce overall uncertainty in measuring solar irradiance.

  20. Relative Accuracy of 1-Minute and Daily Total Solar Radiation Data for 12 Global and 4 Direct Beam Solar Radiometers: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Myers, D. R.; Wilcox, S. M.

    2009-03-01

    This report evaluates the relative performance of 12 global and four direct beam solar radiometers deployed at a single site over a 12-month period. Test radiometer irradiances were compared with a reference irradiance consisting of either an absolute cavity radiometer (during calibrations) or a low uncertainty thermopile pyrheliometer (during the evaluation period) for pyrheliometers; and for pyranometers a reference global irradiance computed from the reference pyrheliometer and diffuse irradiance from a shaded pyranometer.

  1. Global Scratch Gets an Upgrade

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    (NNSA) Nonproliferation Global Material Security The mission of the Office of Global Material Security (GMS) is to help partner countries secure and account for nuclear weapons, weapons-useable nuclear and radiological materials, as well as to build capacity to deter, detect and interdict the illicit trafficking of such materials. GMS achieves its mission through three subprograms: International Nuclear Security Radiological Security Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence (formerly

  2. Economic viability of anaerobic digestion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wellinger, A.

    1996-01-01

    The industrial application of anaerobic digestion is a relatively new, yet proven waste treatment technology. Anaerobic digestion reduces and upgrades organic waste, and is a good way to control air pollution as it reduces methane and nitrous gas emissions. For environmental and energy considerations, anaerobic digestion is a nearly perfect waste treatment process. However, its economic viability is still in question. A number of parameters - type of waste (solid or liquid), digester system, facility size, product quality and end use, environmental requirements, cost of alternative treatments (including labor), and interest rates - define the investment and operating costs of an anaerobic digestion facility. Therefore, identical facilities that treat the same amount and type of waste may, depending on location, legislation, and end product characteristics, reveal radically different costs. A good approach for evaluating the economics of anaerobic digestion is to compare it to treatment techniques such as aeration or conventional sewage treatment (for industrial wastewater), or composting and incineration (for solid organic waste). For example, the cost (per ton of waste) of in-vessel composting with biofilters is somewhat higher than that of anaerobic digestion, but the investment costs 1 1/2 to 2 times more than either composting or anaerobic digestion. Two distinct advantages of anaerobic digestion are: (1) it requires less land than either composting or incinerating, which translates into lower costs and milder environmental and community impacts (especially in densely populated areas); and (2) it produces net energy, which can be used to operate the facility or sold to nearby industries.

  3. Economic viability of anaerobic digestion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wellinger, A.

    1995-11-01

    The industrial application of anaerobic digestion is a relatively new, yet proven waste treatment technology. Anaerobic digestion reduces and upgrades organic waste, and is a good way to control air pollution as it reduces methane and nitrous gas emissions. For environmental and energy considerations, anaerobic digestion is a nearly perfect waste treatment process. However, its economic viability is still in question. A number of parameters-type of waste (solid or liquid), digester system, facility size, product quality and end use, environmental requirements, cost of alternative treatments (including labor), and interest rates-define the investment and operating costs of anaerobic digestion facility. Therefore, identical facilities that treat the same amount and type of waste may, depending on location, legislation, and end product characteristics, reveal radically different costs. A good approach for evaluating the economics of anaerobic digestion is to compare it to treatment techniques such as aeration or conventional sewage treatment (for industrial wastewater), or composting and incineration (for solid organic waste). For example, the cost (per ton of waste) of in-vessel composting with biofilters in somewhat higher than that of anaerobic digestion, but the investment costs 11/2 to 2 times more than either composting or anaerobic digestion. Two distinct advantages of anaerobic digestion are: (1) it requires less land than either composting or incinerating, which translates into lower costs and milder environmental and community impacts (especially in densely populated areas); and (2) it produces net energy, which can be used to operate the facility or sold to nearby industries.

  4. Economic alternatives for containment barriers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nicholson, P.J.; Jasperse, B.H.; Fisher, M.J.

    1997-12-31

    Fixation, barriers, and containment of existing landfills and other disposal areas are often performed by insitu auger type soil mixing and jet grouting. Cement or other chemical reagents are mixed with soil to form both vertical and horizontal barriers. Immobilization of contaminants can be economically achieved by mixing soil and the contaminants with reagents that solidify or stabilize the contaminated area. Developed in Japan, and relatively new to the United States, the first large scale application was for a vertical barrier at the Jackson Lake Dam project in 1986. This technology has grown in both the civil and environmental field since. The paper describes current United States practice for Deep Soil Mixing (over 12 meters in depth), and Shallow Soil Mixing for vertical barriers and stabilization/solidification, and Jet Grouting for horizontal and vertical barriers. Creating very low permeability barriers at depth with minimal surface return often makes these techniques economical when compared to slurry trenches. The paper will discuss equipment, materials, soil and strength parameters, and quality control.

  5. Energy and Economic Impacts of H.R.5049, the Keep America Competitive Global Warming Policy

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2006-01-01

    This report responds to a May 2, 2006 request from Congressmen Tom Udall and Tom Petri asking the Energy Information Administration to analyze the impacts of their legislation implementing a market-based allowance program to cap greenhouse gas emissions at 2009 levels.

  6. Uncertainty of silicon 1-MeV damage function

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Danjaji, M.B.; Griffin, P.J.

    1997-02-01

    The electronics radiation hardness-testing community uses the ASTM E722-93 Standard Practice to define the energy dependence of the nonionizing neutron damage to silicon semiconductors. This neutron displacement damage response function is defined to be equal to the silicon displacement kerma as calculated from the ORNL Si cross-section evaluation. Experimental work has shown that observed damage ratios at various test facilities agree with the defined response function to within 5%. Here, a covariance matrix for the silicon 1-MeV neutron displacement damage function is developed. This uncertainty data will support the electronic radiation hardness-testing community and will permit silicon displacement damage sensors to be used in least squares spectrum adjustment codes.

  7. Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid under Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marnay, Chris; Siddiqui, Afzal; Marnay, Chris

    2008-08-11

    This paper examines a California-based microgrid?s decision to invest in a distributed generation (DG) unit fuelled by natural gas. While the long-term natural gas generation cost is stochastic, we initially assume that the microgrid may purchase electricity at a fixed retail rate from its utility. Using the real options approach, we find a natural gas generation cost threshold that triggers DG investment. Furthermore, the consideration of operational flexibility by the microgrid increases DG investment, while the option to disconnect from the utility is not attractive. By allowing the electricity price to be stochastic, we next determine an investment threshold boundary and find that high electricity price volatility relative to that of natural gas generation cost delays investment while simultaneously increasing the value of the investment. We conclude by using this result to find the implicit option value of the DG unit when two sources of uncertainty exist.

  8. Uncertainty analysis for probabilistic pipe fracture evaluations in LBB applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rahman, S.; Ghadiali, N.; Wilkowski, G.

    1997-04-01

    During the NRC`s Short Cracks in Piping and Piping Welds Program at Battelle, a probabilistic methodology was developed to conduct fracture evaluations of circumferentially cracked pipes for application to leak-rate detection. Later, in the IPIRG-2 program, several parameters that may affect leak-before-break and other pipe flaw evaluations were identified. This paper presents new results from several uncertainty analyses to evaluate the effects of normal operating stresses, normal plus safe-shutdown earthquake stresses, off-centered cracks, restraint of pressure-induced bending, and dynamic and cyclic loading rates on the conditional failure probability of pipes. systems in BWR and PWR. For each parameter, the sensitivity to conditional probability of failure and hence, its importance on probabilistic leak-before-break evaluations were determined.

  9. Uncertainty in terahertz time-domain spectroscopy measurement

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Withayachumnankul, Withawat; Fischer, Bernd M.; Lin Hungyen; Abbott, Derek

    2008-06-15

    Measurements of optical constants at terahertz--or T-ray--frequencies have been performed extensively using terahertz time-domain spectroscopy (THz-TDS). Spectrometers, together with physical models explaining the interaction between a sample and T-ray radiation, are progressively being developed. Nevertheless, measurement errors in the optical constants, so far, have not been systematically analyzed. This situation calls for a comprehensive analysis of measurement uncertainty in THz-TDS systems. The sources of error existing in a terahertz spectrometer and throughout the parameter estimation process are identified. The analysis herein quantifies the impact of each source on the output optical constants. The resulting analytical model is evaluated against experimental THz-TDS data.

  10. Economics, ethics, and climate policy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

    1992-11-01

    Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  11. Economics, ethics, and climate policy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

    1992-11-01

    Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability? Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come? This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  12. GS Global Biodiesel JV | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Biodiesel JV Jump to: navigation, search Name: GS Global Biodiesel JV Place: Iowa Product: JV between GS AgriFuels and Global Ethanol set-up to develop a plant that will...

  13. Performance and economics of a spray-dryer FGD system used with high-sulfur coal

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Livengood, C.D.; Farber, P.S.

    1986-04-01

    Flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) systems based on spray drying to offer advantages over wet lime/limestone systems in a number of areas: low energy consumption, low capital cost, high reliability, and production of a dry waste that is easily handled and disposed of. Uncertainties regarding the performance and economics of such systems for control of high-sulfur-coal emissions have slowed adoption of the technology in the Midwest and East. This paper summarizes 4 years, operating and research experience with that system and describes the current research program, which includes an indepth characterization of an industrial scale dry scrubber with 3.5% sulfur coal.

  14. Iowa Department of Economic Development | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Department of Economic Development Jump to: navigation, search Name: Iowa Department of Economic Development Place: Des Moines, Iowa Zip: 50309 Product: Iowa economic development...

  15. CMI Course Inventory: Mineral Economics and Business | Critical...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Mineral Economics and Business Mineral Economics and Business Of the six CMI Team members that are educational institutions, two offer courses in Mineral Economics and Business. ...

  16. Global climate change: A strategic issue facing Illinois

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Womeldorff, P.J.

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses global climate change, summarizes activities related to climate change, and identifies possible outcomes of the current debate on the subject. Aspects of climate change related to economic issues are very briefly summarized; it is suggested that the end result will be a change in lifestyle in developed countries. International activities, with an emphasis on the Framework Convention on Climate Change, and U.S. activities are outlined. It is recommended that the minimum action required is to work to understand the issue and prepare for possible action.

  17. Global Alternative Fuels | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Alternative Fuels Jump to: navigation, search Name: Global Alternative Fuels Place: El Paso, Texas Zip: 79922 Product: Global Alternative Fuels processes virgin oils (palm,...

  18. Carbon Markets Global Ltd | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Markets Global Ltd Jump to: navigation, search Name: Carbon Markets Global Ltd Place: London, United Kingdom Zip: NW4 2HT Product: Assist project originators develop and finance...

  19. The Global Carbon Bank | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Carbon Bank Jump to: navigation, search Name: The Global Carbon Bank Place: Houston, Texas Zip: 77025 Sector: Carbon, Services Product: Houston-based provider of advisory...

  20. Global Solar Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name: Global Solar Energy Place: Tucson, AZ Website: www.globalsolarenergy.com References: Global Solar Energy1 Information About Partnership...

  1. Sunrise Global Solar Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Solar Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name: Sunrise Global Solar Energy Place: Taoyuan County, Taiwan Zip: 330 Sector: Solar Product: Engaged in solar monocrystalline...

  2. Eco Fuel Global | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Fuel Global Jump to: navigation, search Name: Eco-Fuel Global Place: California, California Zip: 94596 Sector: Services Product: California-based environmental engineering and...

  3. Digilog Global Environmental LLC | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Digilog Global Environmental LLC Jump to: navigation, search Name: Digilog Global Environmental LLC Place: Chicago, Illinois Zip: 60606 Product: TradeLink is registered as a...

  4. NERSC Calculations Provide Independent Confirmation of Global...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Calculations Provide Independent Confirmation of Global Land Warming Since 1901 NERSC Calculations Provide Independent Confirmation of Global Land Warming Since 1901 September 9, ...

  5. Global Power Solutions LLC | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Power Solutions LLC Jump to: navigation, search Name: Global Power Solutions LLC Place: Colorado Zip: CO 80401 Sector: Geothermal energy Product: String representation...

  6. Sky Solar Global SA | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global SA Jump to: navigation, search Name: Sky Solar Global SA Place: Madrid, Spain Zip: 28046 Product: Project developer, and distributor of Chinese PV modules to Spain and...

  7. Global Threat Reduction Initiative | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    An overview of the Global Threat Reduction Initiative, U.S.-Origin Nuclear Fuel Removals. Global Threat Reduction Initiative (1.45

  8. Global Celsius SL | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    search Name: Global Celsius SL Place: Madrid, Spain Sector: Wind energy Product: Spanish wind project developer. References: Global Celsius SL1 This article is a stub. You...

  9. Global Climate Change Institute | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Change Institute Jump to: navigation, search Name: Global Climate Change Institute Place: Tsinghua University, Beijing Municipality, China Zip: 100084 Product: Global Climate...

  10. Brazil Interministerial Commission on Global Climate Change ...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Interministerial Commission on Global Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Name: Brazil Interministerial Commission on Global Climate Change Place: Distrito Federal...

  11. Effect of fluctuation measures on the uncertainty relations between two observables: Different measures lead to opposite conclusions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Luis, Alfredo

    2011-09-15

    We show within a very simple framework that different measures of fluctuations lead to uncertainty relations resulting in contradictory conclusions. More specifically we focus on Tsallis and Renyi entropic uncertainty relations and we get that the minimum joint uncertainty states for some fluctuation measures are the maximum joint uncertainty states of other fluctuation measures, and vice versa.

  12. The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffert, M.I.

    1996-10-01

    This research focuses on assessing connections between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and global climatic change. it has been supported since the early 1990s in part by the DOE ``Quantitative Links`` Program (QLP). A three-year effort was originally proposed to the QLP to investigate effects f global cloudiness on global climate and its implications for cloud feedback; and to continue the development and application of climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by clouds and oceans. It is well-known that cloud and ocean processes are major sources of uncertainty in the ability to predict climatic change from humankind`s greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. And it has always been the objective to develop timely and useful analytical tools for addressing real world policy issues stemming from anthropogenic climate change.

  13. Principles and applications of measurement and uncertainty analysis in research and calibration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wells, C.V.

    1992-11-01

    Interest in Measurement Uncertainty Analysis has grown in the past several years as it has spread to new fields of application, and research and development of uncertainty methodologies have continued. This paper discusses the subject from the perspectives of both research and calibration environments. It presents a history of the development and an overview of the principles of uncertainty analysis embodied in the United States National Standard, ANSI/ASME PTC 19.1-1985, Measurement Uncertainty. Examples are presented in which uncertainty analysis was utilized or is needed to gain further knowledge of a particular measurement process and to characterize final results. Measurement uncertainty analysis provides a quantitative estimate of the interval about a measured value or an experiment result within which the true value of that quantity is expected to lie. Years ago, Harry Ku of the United States National Bureau of Standards stated that The informational content of the statement of uncertainty determines, to a large extent, the worth of the calibrated value.'' Today, that statement is just as true about calibration or research results as it was in 1968. Why is that true What kind of information should we include in a statement of uncertainty accompanying a calibrated value How and where do we get the information to include in an uncertainty statement How should we interpret and use measurement uncertainty information This discussion will provide answers to these and other questions about uncertainty in research and in calibration. The methodology to be described has been developed by national and international groups over the past nearly thirty years, and individuals were publishing information even earlier. Yet the work is largely unknown in many science and engineering arenas. I will illustrate various aspects of uncertainty analysis with some examples drawn from the radiometry measurement and calibration discipline from research activities.

  14. Principles and applications of measurement and uncertainty analysis in research and calibration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wells, C.V.

    1992-11-01

    Interest in Measurement Uncertainty Analysis has grown in the past several years as it has spread to new fields of application, and research and development of uncertainty methodologies have continued. This paper discusses the subject from the perspectives of both research and calibration environments. It presents a history of the development and an overview of the principles of uncertainty analysis embodied in the United States National Standard, ANSI/ASME PTC 19.1-1985, Measurement Uncertainty. Examples are presented in which uncertainty analysis was utilized or is needed to gain further knowledge of a particular measurement process and to characterize final results. Measurement uncertainty analysis provides a quantitative estimate of the interval about a measured value or an experiment result within which the true value of that quantity is expected to lie. Years ago, Harry Ku of the United States National Bureau of Standards stated that ``The informational content of the statement of uncertainty determines, to a large extent, the worth of the calibrated value.`` Today, that statement is just as true about calibration or research results as it was in 1968. Why is that true? What kind of information should we include in a statement of uncertainty accompanying a calibrated value? How and where do we get the information to include in an uncertainty statement? How should we interpret and use measurement uncertainty information? This discussion will provide answers to these and other questions about uncertainty in research and in calibration. The methodology to be described has been developed by national and international groups over the past nearly thirty years, and individuals were publishing information even earlier. Yet the work is largely unknown in many science and engineering arenas. I will illustrate various aspects of uncertainty analysis with some examples drawn from the radiometry measurement and calibration discipline from research activities.

  15. Global Cooling: Effect of Urban Albedo on Global Temperature

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Akbari, Hashem; Menon, Surabi; Rosenfeld, Arthur

    2007-05-22

    In many urban areas, pavements and roofs constitute over 60% of urban surfaces (roof 20-25%, pavements about 40%). The roof and the pavement albedo can be increased by about 0.25 and 0.10, respectively, resulting in a net albedo increase for urban areas of about 0.1. Many studies have demonstrated building cooling-energy savings in excess of 20% upon raising roof reflectivity from an existing 10-20% to about 60%. We estimate U.S. potential savings in excess of $1 billion (B) per year in net annual energy bills. Increasing albedo of urban surfaces can reduce the summertime urban temperature and improve the urban air quality. Increasing the urban albedo has the added benefit of reflecting more of the incoming global solar radiation and countering the effect of global warming. We estimate that increasing albedo of urban areas by 0.1 results in an increase of 3 x 10{sup -4} in Earth albedo. Using a simple global model, the change in air temperature in lowest 1.8 km of the atmosphere is estimated at 0.01K. Modelers predict a warming of about 3K in the next 60 years (0.05K/year). Change of 0.1 in urban albedo will result in 0.01K global cooling, a delay of {approx}0.2 years in global warming. This 0.2 years delay in global warming is equivalent to 10 Gt reduction in CO2 emissions.

  16. High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Projected Markets and Preliminary Economics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Larry Demick

    2011-08-01

    This paper summarizes the potential market for process heat produced by a high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR), the environmental benefits reduced CO2 emissions will have on these markets, and the typical economics of projects using these applications. It gives examples of HTGR technological applications to industrial processes in the typical co-generation supply of process heat and electricity, the conversion of coal to transportation fuels and chemical process feedstock, and the production of ammonia as a feedstock for the production of ammonia derivatives, including fertilizer. It also demonstrates how uncertainties in capital costs and financial factors affect the economics of HTGR technology by analyzing the use of HTGR technology in the application of HTGR and high temperature steam electrolysis processes to produce hydrogen.

  17. Final Report: DOE Project: DE-SC-0005399 Linking the uncertainty...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Linking the uncertainty of low frequency variability in tropical forcing in regional climate change Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Final Report: DOE Project:...

  18. Uncertainty Analysis of Certified Photovoltaic Measurements at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Emery, K.

    2009-08-01

    Discusses NREL Photovoltaic Cell and Module Performance Characterization Group's procedures to achieve lowest practical uncertainty in measuring PV performance with respect to reference conditions.

  19. MASS MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY FOR PLUTONIUM ALIQUOTS ASSAYED BY CONTROLLED-POTENTIAL COULOMETRY

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Holland, M.; Cordaro, J.

    2009-03-18

    Minimizing plutonium measurement uncertainty is essential to nuclear material control and international safeguards. In 2005, the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) published ISO 12183 'Controlled-potential coulometric assay of plutonium', 2nd edition. ISO 12183:2005 recommends a target of {+-}0.01% for the mass of original sample in the aliquot because it is a critical assay variable. Mass measurements in radiological containment were evaluated and uncertainties estimated. The uncertainty estimate for the mass measurement also includes uncertainty in correcting for buoyancy effects from air acting as a fluid and from decreased pressure of heated air from the specific heat of the plutonium isotopes.

  20. On the characteristics of aerosol indirect effect based on dynamic regimes in global climate models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, S.; Wang, M.; Ghan, S. J.; Ding, A.; Wang, H.; Zhang, K.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.; Ferrachat, S.; Takeamura, T.; et al

    2015-09-02

    Aerosol-cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity (?500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strong large-scale ascendmore(?500 ?1) and low clouds (stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus) where the models differ most. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing is also found to differ significantly among different regimes. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing in ascending regimes is as large as that in stratocumulus regimes, which indicates that regimes with strong large-scale ascend are as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. It is further shown that shortwave aerosol indirect forcing over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate (> 0.1 mm d?1) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64 to nearly 100 %). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes than that globally, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.less