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1

Effects of the Uncertainty about Global Economic Recovery on Energy Transition and CO2 Price  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper examines the impact that uncertainty over economic growth may have on global energy transition and CO2 prices. We use a general-equilibrium model derived from MERGE, and define several stochastic scenarios for ...

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier

2

Effects of the uncertainty about global economic recovery on energy transition and CO2 price  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper examines the impact that uncertainty over economic growth may have on global energy transition and CO 2 prices. We use a general-equilibrium model derived from MERGE, and define several stochastic scenarios for economic growth. Each scenario is characterized by the likelihood of a rapid global economic recovery. More precisely, during each decade, global economy may- with a given probability- shift from the EIA's (2010) loweconomic-growth path to the EIA's (2010) high-economic-growth path. The climate policy considered corresponds in the medium term to the commitments announced after the Copenhagen conference, and in the long term to a reduction of 25 % in global energy-related CO 2 emissions (with respect to 2005). For the prices of CO 2 and electricity, as well as for the implementation of CCS, the branches of the resulting stochastic trajectories appear to be heavily influenced by agents ’ initial expectations of future economic growth and by the economic growth actually realized. Thus, in 2040, the global price of CO 2 may range from $21 (when an initiallyanticipated economic recovery never occurs) to $128 (in case of non-anticipated rapid economic recovery). In addition, we show that within each region, the model internalizes the constraints limiting the expansion of each power-generation technology through the price paid by the power utility for the acquisition of new production capacity. As a result, in China, the curves of endogenous investment costs for onshore and offshore wind are all

Co Price; Olivier Dur; Axel Pierru; Yves Smeers; Olivier Durand-lasserve; Axel Pierru; Yves Smeers

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

3

Global Warming Mitigation Investments Optimized under Uncertainty  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Global Warming Mitigation Investments Optimized under Uncertainty Global Warming Mitigation Investments Optimized under Uncertainty Speaker(s): Hermann Held Date: July 9, 2010 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Thomas McKone The Copenhagen Accord (2009) recognizes that 'the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius' (compared to pre-industrial levels, '2° target'). In recent years, energy economics have derived welfare-optimal investment streams into low-emission energy mixes and associated costs. According to our analyses, auxiliary targets that are in line with the 2° target could be achieved at relatively low costs if energy investments were triggered rather swiftly. While such analyses assume 'perfect foresight' of a benevolent 'social planner', an accompanying suite of experiments explicitly

4

Estimates of Uncertainty in Predictions of Global Mean Surface Temperature  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method for estimating uncertainty in future climate change is discussed in detail and applied to predictions of global mean temperature change. The method uses optimal fingerprinting to make estimates of uncertainty in model simulations of ...

J. A. Kettleborough; B. B. B. Booth; P. A. Stott; M. R. Allen

2007-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

5

An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary mate...

Mercure, J F

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

6

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect

We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.

Werth, D.; Garrett, A.

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

7

Rethinking the economics of global warming  

SciTech Connect

Most of the debates over the impact of the greenhouse effect have centered around the reliability of computer models and have neglected considerations of the economic effects of attempts to reduce global warming. Economic models have certain limitations but the input of cost benefit analysis is needed for arriving at suitable policies for lowering anthropogenic input into warming of the earth. Care must be used in extrapolating from data of time periods which are inappropriate. Estimates of costs of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions also must include possible benefits; at present this is not being done. Economic models must address differences in the distribution of global warming's consequences over time and geographical space. The costs of delaying or accelerating reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions need to be included in policy considerations. A global agreement must not adversely affect developing countries. Faulty assumptions of the effect of market forces on costs impair economic models. We have to recognize that economic and environmental goals need not be incompatible. If economic models are viewed as possible scenarios and not as predictions, then these scenarios can be useful in determining policies for reducing the greenhouse effect without harming populations and their economies.

Miller, A.; Mintzer, I.; Brown, P.G. (Univ. of Maryland, College Park (USA))

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

8

Feedstock Economics for Global Steam Crackers  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The high level of current profitability within the petrochemical industry has spurred an unprecedented number of announcements of new global capacity. Many of the announcements have been made by organizations with no previous background in petrochemicals, who believe they possess strategic competitive advantages for success in the business. The choice of cracking feedstocks has a tremendous impact on the future economic success of the venture. Feedstock determines the two major economic variables in ethylene plants: first cost and operating cost. For any particular ethylene plant design capacity, there is a range in investment cost, driven primarily by the choice of feedstock. In addition, feedstock costs represent over two-thirds of plant operating costs. This study presents the results of SRI work on determining the economics of ethylene plants based upon five alternative feedstocks, and then modifying the data for 10 global regions in which significant new ethylene capacity has been announced. The five feedstocks considered are: ethane, propane, butane, wide range naphtha, and atmospheric gas oil. The 10 regions considered in the study are the US Gulf Coast, Brazil, Western Canada, China, Indonesia, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Taiwan, and West Germany. The business climate considered in the study is the second half of 1989, and the market prices used for feedstock, utilities, products and labor represent average contract prices during the fourth quarter of 1989.

McCormack, G.; Pavone, T.

1990-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

Economics of shareware: How do uncertainty and piracy affect shareware quality and brand premium?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Increased network speed has opened up new opportunities for developers to distribute their products as shareware through the Internet. This paper analyzes the interrelationships among key issues that are central to the software industry, including uncertainty, ... Keywords: Piracy, Pricing, Shareware economics, Uncertainty, Versioning

Wendy Hui; Byungjoon Yoo; Kar Yan Tam

2008-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Economic Globalization and a Nuclear Renaissance  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The phenomenon of globalization has become increasingly well recognized, documented, and analyzed in the last several years. Globalization, the integration of markets and intra-firm competition on a worldwide basis, involves complex behavioral and mindset changes within a firm that facilitate global competition. The changes revolve around efficient information flow and rapid deployment of technology. The objective of this report is to examine the probable characteristics of a global nuclear renaissance and its broad implications for industry structure and export control relative to nuclear technology. The question of how a modern renaissance would affect the trend toward globalization of the nuclear industry is addressed.

Wood, Thomas W.; Johnson, Wayne L.; Parker, Brian M.

2001-10-22T23:59:59.000Z

11

Modeling aviation's global emissions, uncertainty analysis, and applications to policy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

(cont.) fuel burn results below 3000 ft. For emissions, the emissions indices were the most influential uncertainties for the variance in model outputs. By employing the model, this thesis examined three policy options for ...

Lee, Joosung Joseph, 1974-

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

Quantifying Global Uncertainties in a Simple Microwave Rainfall Algorithm  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

While a large number of methods exist in the literature for retrieving rainfall from passive microwave brightness temperatures, little has been written about the quantitative assessment of the expected uncertainties in these rainfall products at ...

Christian Kummerow; Wesley Berg; Jody Thomas-Stahle; Hirohiko Masunaga

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate Challenges in Talks with World Energy Ministers Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate Challenges in Talks with World Energy Ministers March 13, 2009 - 12:00am Addthis Washington, DC - In recent discussions with a broad range of world energy ministers, U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu has stressed the need for global cooperation on energy, economic and climate challenges. Over the past several weeks, Secretary Chu's dialogue with representatives of both energy producing and consuming nations has reinforced the Obama Administration's commitment to energy independence and stressed the shared opportunities to create jobs and boost the global economy through energy

14

Uncertainty in techno-economic estimates of cellulosic ethanol production due to experimental measurement uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract Background Cost-effective production of lignocellulosic biofuels remains a major financial and technical challenge at the industrial scale. A critical tool in biofuels process development is the techno-economic ...

Vicari, Kristin Jenise

15

Uncertainties in Global Ocean Surface Heat Flux Climatologies Derived from Ship Observations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A methodology to define uncertainties associated with ocean surface heat flux calculations has been developed and applied to a global climatology that utilizes a summary of the Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set surface observations. ...

Peter J. Gleckler; Bryan C. Weare

1997-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

A Review of Uncertainties in Global Temperature Projections over the Twenty-First Century  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Quantification of the uncertainties in future climate projections is crucial for the implementation of climate policies. Here a review of projections of global temperature change over the twenty-first century is provided for the six illustrative ...

R. Knutti; M. R. Allen; P. Friedlingstein; J. M. Gregory; G. C. Hegerl; G. A. Meehl; M. Meinshausen; J. M. Murphy; G.-K. Plattner; S. C. B. Raper; T. F. Stocker; P. A. Stott; H. Teng; T. M. L. Wigley

2008-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

Two Approaches to Quantifying Uncertainty in Global Temperature Changes  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A Bayesian statistical model developed to produce probabilistic projections of regional climate change using observations and ensembles of general circulation models (GCMs) is applied to evaluate the probability distribution of global mean ...

Ana Lopez; Claudia Tebaldi; Mark New; Dave Stainforth; Myles Allen; Jamie Kettleborough

2006-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

18

A global warming forum: Scientific, economic, and legal overview  

SciTech Connect

A Global Warming Forum covers in detail five general subject areas aimed at providing first, the scientific background and technical information available on global warming and second, a study and evaluation of the role of economic, legal, and political considerations in global warming. The five general topic areas discussed are the following: (1) The role of geophysical and geoengineering methods to solve problems related to global climatic change; (2) the role of oceanographic and geochemical methods to provide evidence for global climatic change; (3) the global assessment of greenhouse gas production including the need for additional information; (4) natural resource management needed to provide long-term global energy and agricultural uses; (5) legal, policy, and educational considerations required to properly evaluate global warming proposals.

Geyer, R.A. (ed.)

1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

All wind farm uncertainty is not the same: The economics of common versus independent causes  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

There is uncertainty in the performance of wind energy installations due to unknowns in the local wind environment, machine response to the environment, and the durability of materials. Some of the unknowns are inherently independent from machine to machine while other uncertainties are common to the entire fleet equally. The FAROW computer software for fatigue and reliability of wind turbines is used to calculate the probability of component failure due to a combination of all sources of uncertainty. Although the total probability of component failure due to all effects is sometimes interpreted as the percentage of components likely to fail, this perception is often far from correct. Different amounts of common versus independent uncertainty are reflected in economic risk due to either high probabilities that a small percentage of the fleet will experience problems or low probabilities that the entire fleet will have problems. The average, or expected cost is the same as would be calculated by combining all sources of uncertainty, but the risk to the fleet may be quite different in nature. Present values of replacement costs are compared for two examples reflecting different stages in the design and development process. Results emphasize that an engineering effort to test and evaluate the design assumptions is necessary to advance a design from the high uncertainty of the conceptual stages to the lower uncertainty of a well engineered and tested machine.

Veers, P.S.

1994-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

20

Economic benefits of decarbonising the global electricity sector  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Conventional economic analyses of stringent climate change mitigation have generally concluded that economic austerity would result from carbon austerity. These analyses however rely critically on the assumption of an economic equilibrium, which dismisses established notions on behavioural heterogeneity, path dependence and technology transitions. Here we show that on the contrary, the decarbonisation of the electricity sector globally can lead to improvements in economic performance. By modelling the process of innovation-diffusion and non-equilibrium dynamics, we establish how climate policy instruments for emissions reductions alter economic activity through energy prices, government spending, enhanced investment and tax revenues. While higher electricity prices reduce income and output, this is over-compensated by enhanced employment generated by investments in new technology. We stress that the current dialogue on the impacts of climate policies must be revisited to reflect the real complex dynamics invo...

Mercure, J F; Foley, A; Chewpreecha, U; Pollitt, H; Holden, P B; Edwards, N R

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

On the relationship between uncertainties in tropical divergence and the hydrological cycle in global models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A survey of tropical divergence from three GCMs, three global reanalyses and four insitu soundings from field campaigns shows the existence of large uncertainties in the ubiquity of shallow divergent circulation as well as the depth and strength of the deep divergent circulation. More specifically, only two GCMs out of the three GCMs and three global reanalyses show significant shallow divergent circulation, which is present in all in-situ soundings, and of the three GCMs and three global reanalyses, only two global reanalyses have deep divergence profiles that lie within the range of uncertainty of the soundings. The relationships of uncertainties in the shallow and deep divergent circulation to uncertainties in present day and projected strength of the hydrological cycle from the GCMs are assessed. In the tropics and subtropics, deep divergent circulation is the largest contributor to moisture convergence that balances the net precipitation, and inter-model differences in the present day simulations carry over onto the future projections. In comparison to the soundings and reanalyses, the GCMs are found to have deeper and stronger divergent circulation. While these two characteristics of GCM divergence affect the strength of the hydrological cycle, they tend to compensate for each other so that their combined effect is relatively modest.

Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

22

The economics of long-term global climate change  

SciTech Connect

This report is intended to provide an overview of economic issues and research relevant to possible, long-term global climate change. It is primarily a critical survey, not a statement of Administration or Department policy. This report should serve to indicate that economic analysis of global change is in its infancy few assertions about costs or benefits can be made with confidence. The state of the literature precludes any attempt to produce anything like a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis. Moreover, almost all the quantitative estimates regarding physical and economic effects in this report, as well as many of the qualitative assertions, are controversial. Section I provides background on greenhouse gas emissions and their likely climatic effects and on available policy instruments. Section II considers the costs of living with global change, assuming no substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Section III considers costs of reducing these emissions, though the available literature does not contain estimates of the costs of policies that would, on the assumptions of current climate models, prevent climate change altogether. The individual sections are not entirely compartmentalized, but can be read independently if necessary.

1990-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

Reconciling uncertainties in integrated science and policy models: Applications to global climate change  

SciTech Connect

In this thesis tools of data reconciliation are used to integrate available information into scientific and policy models of greenhouse gases. The role of uncertainties in scientific and policy models of global climate change is examined, and implications for global change policy are drawn. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. Global sources and sinks of methane have significant uncertainties. A chance constrained methodology was developed and used to perform inversions on the global methane cycle. Budgets of methane that are consistent with source fluxes, isotopic and ice core measurements were determined. While it is not possible to come up with a single budget for CH{sub 4}, performing the calculation with a number of sets of assumed priors suggests a convergence in the allowed range for sources. In some cases -- wetlands (70-130 Tg/yr), rice paddies (60-125 Tg/yr) a significant reduction in the uncertainty of the source estimate is achieved. Our results compare favorably with the most recent measurements of flux estimates. For comparison, a similar analysis using bayes monte carlo simulation was performed. The question of the missing sink for carbon remains unresolved. Two analyses that attempt to quantify the missing sink were performed. First, a steady state analysis of the carbon cycle was used to determine the pre-industrial inter-hemispheric carbon concentration gradient. Second, a full blown dynamic inversion of the carbon cycle was performed. An advection diffusion ocean model with surface chemistry, coupled to box models of the atmosphere and the biosphere was inverted to fit available measurements of {sup 12}C and {sup 14}C carbon isotopes using Differential-Algebraic Optimization. The model effectively suggests that the {open_quotes}missing{close_quotes} sink for carbon is hiding in the biosphere. Scenario dependent trace gas indices were calculated for CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HCFC-22.

Kandlikar, M.

1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Global climate change: Social and economic research issues  

SciTech Connect

This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H. [eds.

1992-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and the Global Carbon Cycle: The Key Uncertainties  

DOE R&D Accomplishments (OSTI)

The biogeochemical cycling of carbon between its sources and sinks determines the rate of increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations. The observed increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} content is less than the estimated release from fossil fuel consumption and deforestation. This discrepancy can be explained by interactions between the atmosphere and other global carbon reservoirs such as the oceans, and the terrestrial biosphere including soils. Undoubtedly, the oceans have been the most important sinks for CO{sub 2} produced by man. But, the physical, chemical, and biological processes of oceans are complex and, therefore, credible estimates of CO{sub 2} uptake can probably only come from mathematical models. Unfortunately, one- and two-dimensional ocean models do not allow for enough CO{sub 2} uptake to accurately account for known releases. Thus, they produce higher concentrations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} than was historically the case. More complex three-dimensional models, while currently being developed, may make better use of existing tracer data than do one- and two-dimensional models and will also incorporate climate feedback effects to provide a more realistic view of ocean dynamics and CO{sub 2} fluxes. The instability of current models to estimate accurately oceanic uptake of CO{sub 2} creates one of the key uncertainties in predictions of atmospheric CO{sub 2} increases and climate responses over the next 100 to 200 years.

Peng, T. H.; Post, W. M.; DeAngelis, D. L.; Dale, V. H.; Farrell, M. P.

1987-12-00T23:59:59.000Z

26

Climate change and agriculture : global and regional effects using an economic model of international trade  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Empirical estimates of the economic welfare implications of the impact of climate change on global agricultural production are made. Agricultural yield changes resulting from climate scenarios associated with a doubling ...

Reilly, John M.

1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

27

Global Health and Economic Impacts of Future Ozone Pollution  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We assess the human health and economic impacts of projected 2000-2050 changes in ozone pollution using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis-Health Effects (EPPA-HE) model, in combination with results from the ...

Webster, Mort D.

28

A global perspective on energy markets and economic integration.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

What will be the effect of Iraqi domestic instability on Iraqi oil production Negotiations for Iranian nuclear technology on Iranian oil supplies Saudi commitment to expanded oil production President Putin's policies on Russian oil and natural gas supplies President Chavez's policies on Venezuelan oil supplies Instability in Nigeria Higher oil prices on world economic growth Effect of economic growth on oil demand in China, India, U.S., etc. Higher oil prices on non-OPEC oil supplies

Baker, Arnold Barry

2006-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

Reanalyses-Based Tropospheric Temperature Estimates: Uncertainties in the Context of Global Climate Change Detection  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Uncertainties in estimates of tropospheric mean temperature were investigated in the context of climate change detection through comparisons of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) ...

Muthuvel Chelliah; C. F. Ropelewski

2000-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

California’s Economic Outlook: Short-term Recovery But Longer-term Uncertainties  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The Long-Term Demographic Outlook for California and LosCALIFORNIA’S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: SHORT-TERM RECOVERY BUTCalifornia’s short-term outlook remains one of expansion,

Hurd, Joseph; Mitchell, Daniel J.B.

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

31

An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

materials with specific calorific contents; renewable f lows, where energy may be extracted from continuously producing onshore or offshore surface areas with wind, so- lar irradiation, plant growth, river flows, waves, tides or various forms of heat... wind power, and about 58 EJ/y for offshore wind power (Krewitt et al., 2009). A global onshore value of 346 EJ/y has been derived by Hoogwijk et al. (2004), in whose work, used for the present analysis, estimations of av- erage wind speeds were applied...

Mercure, Jean-Francois; Salas, Pablo

2012-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

32

Eleventh World Congress of Social Economics Social Economics: A Paradigm for a Global Society, Albertville, France  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

, Albertville, France June 8-11, 2004 Social Economy as Social Science and Practice: Historical Perspectives for a global society", Albertville, 8-11 Juin 2004 (2004)" #12;- 2 - Social Economy as Social Science

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

33

2012), Financial Globalization, Economic Growth, and the Crisis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

© Peterson Institute for International Economics. All rights reserved. Greece has been at the epicenter of the European debt crisis. It is the only industrial nation since the 1930s that has been forced to restructure public debt with forgiveness. Financial contagion from Greece contributed to debt stress in the euro area periphery, at first in Ireland and Portugal but eventually even in the large and stronger economies of Italy and Spain, which encountered punitive risk spreads on sovereign debt by late 2011. By the second quarter of 2012 political turmoil in Greece and the temporary specter of a Greek exit from the euro, together with heightened banking problems in Spain, sparked another round of stress in debt markets. Then at midyear the sharp escalation of potential European Central Bank (ECB) support through purchases of government bonds in Outright Market Transactions restored a measure of calm.

In Greece; William R. Cline; William R. Cline; Senior Fellow; Earlier Draft

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

Impacts of PSC Elements on Contract Economics under Oil Price Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Production sharing contract (PSC) is one of the most common types of cooperation modes in international petroleum contracts. The elements that affect PSC economics mainly include royalty, cost oil, profit oil as well as income tax. Assuming that oil ... Keywords: Production Sharing, Oil Price, Oil Contract, International Petroleum Cooperation

Wang Zhen; Zhao Lin; Liu Mingming

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

Uncertainty induced by QCD coupling in the CTEQ global analysis of parton distributions  

SciTech Connect

We examine the dependence of parton distribution functions (PDFs) on the value of the QCD coupling strength {alpha}{sub s}(M{sub Z}). We explain a simple method that is rigorously valid in the quadratic approximation normally applied in PDF fitting, and fully reproduces the correlated dependence of theoretical cross sections on {alpha}{sub s} and PDF parameters. This method is based on a statistical relation that allows one to add the uncertainty produced by {alpha}{sub s}, computed with some special PDF sets, in quadrature with the PDF uncertainty obtained for the fixed {alpha}{sub s} value (such as the CTEQ6.6 PDF set). A series of four CTEQ6.6AS PDFs realizing this approach, for {alpha}{sub s} values in the interval 0.116{<=}{alpha}{sub s}(M{sub Z}){<=}0.120, is presented. Using these PDFs, the combined {alpha}{sub s} and PDF uncertainty is assessed for theoretical predictions at the Fermilab Tevatron and Large Hadron Collider.

Lai, Hung-Liang [Taipei Municipal University of Education, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Department of Physics and Astronomy, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan 48824-1116 (United States); Huston, Joey; Li, Zhao; Pumplin, Jon; Stump, Daniel; Yuan, C.-P. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan 48824-1116 (United States); Nadolsky, Pavel [Department of Physics, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, Texas 75275-0175 (United States)

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Global Economic Effects of USA Biofuel Policy and the Potential Contribution from Advanced Biofuels  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study evaluates the global economic effects of the USA renewable fuel standards (RFS2), and the potential contribution from advanced biofuels. Our simulation results imply that these mandates lead to an increase of 0.21 percent in the global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022, including an increase of 0.8 percent in the USA and 0.02 percent in the rest of the world (ROW); relative to our baseline, no-RFS scenario. The incremental contributions to GDP from advanced biofuels in 2022 are estimated at 0.41 percent and 0.04 percent in the USA and ROW, respectively. Although production costs of advanced biofuels are higher than for conventional biofuels in our model, their economic benefits result from reductions in oil use, and their smaller impacts on food markets compared with conventional biofuels. Thus, the USA advanced biofuels targets are expected to have positive economic benefits.

Gbadebo Oladosu; Keith Kline; Paul Leiby; Rocio Uria-Martinez; Maggie Davis; Mark Downing; Laurence Eaton

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

Global and Hemispheric Temperature Trends: Uncertainties Related to Inadequate Spatial Sampling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Long-term (50 to 100 years) and short-term (10 to 30 years) global and hemispheric trends of temperature have an inherent unknown error due to incomplete and nonrandom spatial sampling. A number of experiments have been conducted to help quantify ...

Thomas R. Karl; Richard W. Knight; John R. Christy

1994-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

15.023J / 12.848J / ESD.128J Global Climate Change: Economics, Science, and Policy, Spring 2004  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Introduces scientific, economic, and ecological issues underlying the threat of global climate change, and the institutions engaged in negotiating an international response. Develops an integrated approach to analysis of ...

Jacoby, Henry D.

39

15.023J / 12.848J / ESD.128J Global Climate Change: Economics, Science, and Policy, Spring 2007  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Introduces scientific, economic, and ecological issues underlying the threat of global climate change, and the institutions engaged in negotiating an international response. Develops an integrated approach to analysis of ...

Jacoby, Henry D.

40

Global Economic Effects of Changes in Crops, Pasture, and Forests due to Changing Climate, Carbon Dioxide, and Ozone  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Multiple environmental changes will have consequences for global vegetation. To the extent that crop yields and pasture and forest productivity are affected there can be important economic consequences. We examine the ...

Reilly, John M.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Stochastic hydro-economic modeling for optimal management of agricultural groundwater nitrate pollution under hydraulic conductivity uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In decision-making processes, reliability and risk aversion play a decisive role. This paper presents a framework for stochastic optimization of control strategies for groundwater nitrate pollution from agriculture under hydraulic conductivity uncertainty. ... Keywords: Fertilizer allocation, Groundwater, Nitrates, Optimization, Stochastic management model, Uncertainty

S. Peńa-Haro; M. Pulido-Velazquez; C. Llopis-Albert

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

Criminal Law and Behavioral Law and Economics: Observations on the Neglected Role of Uncertainty in Deterring Crime  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and Federal Common Law Crimes, 1994 Sup. Ct. Rev. 345-428.Proper Limits for Federal Crime Jurisdiction,” 46 HastingsROLE OF UNCERTAINTY IN DETERRING CRIME Alon Harel * and Uzi

Harel, Alon; Segal, Uzi

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.  

SciTech Connect

Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subset of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.

Hernandez, Jacquelynne; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Jennings, Barbara Joan; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Brown, Theresa Jean; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

Continuous improvement at a multinational company : dealing with uncertainty in the global supply chain and analyzing implementation dynamics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis explores the problem of global supply chain flexibility in the context of a multinational commonly that we refer to as Company X. Company X faces competitive markets, increasingly demanding customers, and ...

Ochoa Gonzalez, Arturo

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

Uncertainty in future global energy use and fossil fuel CO{sub 2} emissions 1975 to 2075: Appendices A--B  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Appendix A contains the Monte Carlo Data Set. The data sheets give the distribution for input variables used in Monte Carlo analysis of the IEA/ORAU Global Energy, CO{sub 2} Model. The data sheets include a discussion of data sources, bibliographic sources, and other considerations used in developing the particular data format and values for distributions. As much detail as possible about how distributions are related to published estimates is given but in most cases it was necessary to make a significant leap from available data to the quantified distribution. The distributions are meant to be roughly accurate and to the degree that uncertainty exists about the form and value of distributions, the authors have tended to opt for wider bounds. Appendix B contains The IEA/ORAU Long-Term Global Energy-CO{sub 2} Model, Version A.84 -- Model Improvements. The model was originally developed in 1982 in support of work conducted for the US Department of Energy Carbon Dioxide Research Division in the area of future global fossil fuel related CO emissions research. The uncertainty analysis, documented in this report, made demands on the model that had not previously been made, and in the process of operating the model much was learned about areas in which simplification or elaboration was justified, or in which a different approach was warranted. As a consequence of these criticisms, demands, and learning numerous model modifications were undertaken. Since two versions of the model now exist, version specifications have been adopted. The 1984 version is designated A.84, while the version completed in 1982 is designated B.82. Model changes fall into three categories: those which affect the theoretical structure of the model, those which affect the computational processes of the model, and those which affect only the model by which model inputs are entered.

Edmonds, J.A. [Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Washington, DC (United States). Inst. for Energy Analysis; Reilly, J.M. [Pacific Northwest Labs., Washington, DC (United States); Gardner, R.H. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Brenkert, A. [Science Applications International Corp., Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

1985-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

46

Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a ...

Webster, Mort David.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Mayer, Monika.; Reilly, John M.; Harnisch, Jochen.; Hyman, Robert C.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Wang, Chien.

47

Trends in Global and Basin-Scale Runoff over the Late Twentieth Century: Methodological Issues and Sources of Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

While human influence has been detected in global and regional surface air temperature, detection–attribution studies of direct (i.e., land use and water management) and indirect (i.e., climate related) effects of human activities on land surface ...

R. Alkama; B. Decharme; H. Douville; A. Ribes

2011-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.  

SciTech Connect

While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.

Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

49

Designing Soybeans for the 21st Century MarketsChapter 1 Impact of Research on the Economic Outlook for Soybeans and Soybean Products in Global Markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Designing Soybeans for the 21st Century Markets Chapter 1 Impact of Research on the Economic Outlook for Soybeans and Soybean Products in Global Markets Biofuels and Bioproducts and Biodiesel Food Science Health Nutrition Biochemistry P

50

The economic impact of global climate and tropospheric oxone on world agricultural production  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The objective of my thesis is to analyze the economic impact on agriculture production from changes in climate and tropospheric ozone, and related policy interventions. The analysis makes use of the Emissions Prediction ...

Wang, Xiaodu

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

51

Review: Solar Revolution: The Economic Transformation of the Global Energy Industry by Travis Bradford  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

related to finance and alternative energy economics. Energyalternatives are discussed next with the author concluding that hydroelectric dams; nuclear power; wind energyalternatives for various reasons. The last chapter in this part is dedicated to solar energy.

Mirza, Umar Karim

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

Uncertainty Quantification and Parameter Tuning in the CAM5 Zhang-McFarlane Convection Scheme and Impact of Improved Convection on the Global Circulation and Climate  

SciTech Connect

In this study, we applied an uncertainty quantification (UQ) technique to improve convective precipitation in the global climate model, the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), in which the convective and stratiform precipitation partitioning is very different from observational estimates. We examined the sensitivity of precipitation and circulation to several key parameters in the Zhang-McFarlane deep convection scheme in CAM5, using a stochastic importance-sampling algorithm that can progressively converge to optimal parameter values. The impact of improved deep convection on the global circulation and climate was subsequently evaluated. Our results show that the simulated convective precipitation is most sensitive to the parameters of the convective available potential energy consumption time scale, parcel fractional mass entrainment rate, and maximum downdraft mass flux fraction. Using the optimal parameters constrained by the observed Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, convective precipitation improves the simulation of convective to stratiform precipitation ratio and rain-rate spectrum remarkably. When convection is suppressed, precipitation tends to be more confined to the regions with strong atmospheric convergence. As the optimal parameters are used, positive impacts on some aspects of the atmospheric circulation and climate, including reduction of the double Intertropical Convergence Zone, improved East Asian monsoon precipitation, and improved annual cycles of the cross-equatorial jets, are found as a result of the vertical and horizontal redistribution of latent heat release from the revised parameterization. Positive impacts of the optimal parameters derived from the 2 simulations are found to transfer to the 1 simulations to some extent.

Yang, Ben; Qian, Yun; Lin, Guang; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhang, Guang J.; McFarlane, Sally A.; Zhao, Chun; Zhang, Yaocun; Wang, Hailong; Wang, Minghuai; Liu, Xiaohong

2013-01-25T23:59:59.000Z

53

Moral purpose, economic incentive and global trade : why new business models are needed  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Globalization has occurred in various forms over the past century, yet only recently has it become daily news. This evolving process has created numerous underlying tensions that are not well understood. While western ...

Samel, Hiram M

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

54

On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price dynamics of energy commodities  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolution of the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non-renewable resources, their consumption, depletion pathways and timescales. Such marginal costs can be used to simulate the long term average price formation of energy commodities. Drawing on previous work where a global database of energy resource economic potentials was constructed, this work uses cost distributions of non-renewable resources in order to evaluate global flows of energy commodities. A mathematical framework is given to calculate endogenous flows of energy resources given an exogenous commodity price path. This framework can be used in reverse in order to calculate an exogenous marginal cost of production of energy carriers given an exogenous carrier demand. Using rigid price inelastic assumptions independent of the economy, these two approaches generate limiting scenarios that depict extreme use of natural resources. This is useful to characterise the cur...

Mercure, Jean-Francois

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

55

Energy and Economic Impacts of H.R.5049, the Keep America Competitive Global Warming Policy Act  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3 3 Energy and Economic Impacts of H.R.5049, the Keep America Competitive Global Warming Policy Act August 2006 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization. Service Reports are prepared by the Energy Information Administration upon special request and are based on assumptions specified by the requester.

56

ECONOMIC MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ADOPTION OF CARBON CAPTURE AND SEQUESTRATION TECHNOLOGIES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and sequestration as natural gas prices rise. INTRODUCTION Heightened concerns about global climate change have were added to EPPA for 1) coal power generation with CCS (coal capture), 2) natural gas combined cycle pulverized coal technology and the 3 #12;advanced natural gas technology. Compared with the pulverized coal

57

A Global Model of Technological Utilization Based on Governmental, Business-Investment, Social, and Economic Factors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This exploratory paper presents a conceptual model of the factors of governmental support and openness, business and technology investment, and socioeconomic level that are posited to influence technological utilization. The conceptual model and conjectures ... Keywords: Global Digital Divide, Government Investment, Societal Openness, Socioeconomic Factors, Structural Equation Modeling, Technological Utilization

James Pick; Rasool Azari

2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

58

Modeling the Oil Transition: A Summary of the Proceedings of the DOE/EPA Workshop on the Economic and Environmental Implications of Global Energy Transitions  

SciTech Connect

The global energy system faces sweeping changes in the next few decades, with potentially critical implications for the global economy and the global environment. It is important that global institutions have the tools necessary to predict, analyze and plan for such massive change. This report summarizes the proceedings of an international workshop concerning methods of forecasting, analyzing, and planning for global energy transitions and their economic and environmental consequences. A specific case, it focused on the transition from conventional to unconventional oil and other energy sources likely to result from a peak in non-OPEC and/or global production of conventional oil. Leading energy models from around the world in government, academia and the private sector met, reviewed the state-of-the-art of global energy modeling and evaluated its ability to analyze and predict large-scale energy transitions.

Greene, David L [ORNL

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

Biofuels and their By–Products: Global Economic and Environmental Implications  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The biofuel industry has been rapidly growing around the world in recent years. Several papers have used general equilibrium models and addressed the economy-wide and environmental consequences of producing biofuels at a large scale. They mainly argue that since biofuels are mostly produced from agricultural sources, their effects are largely felt in agricultural markets with major land use and environmental consequences. In this paper, we argue that virtually all of these studies have overstated the impact of liquid biofuels on agricultural markets due to the fact that they have ignored the role of by-products resulting from the production of biofuels. Feed by-products of the biofuel industry, such as Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles (DDGS) and biodiesel by-products (BDBP) such as soy and rapeseed meals, can be used in the livestock industry as substitutes for grains and oilseed meals used in this industry. Hence, their presence mitigates the price impacts of biofuel production on the livestock and food industries. The importance of incorporating by-products of biofuel production in economic models is well recognized by some partial equilibrium analyses of biofuel production. However, to date, this issue has not been tackled by those conducting CGE analysis of biofuels programs. Accordingly,

Farzad Taheripour; Thomas W. Hertel; Wallace E. Tyner; Jayson F. Beckman; Dileep K. Birur; Farzad Taheripour

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

60

Uncertainty in future global energy use and fossil fuel CO{sub 2} emissions 1975 to 2075: Appendices C--F  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In constructing the model, creating variable names, and linking the model to the Monte Carlo program various naming conventions have been used. These appendices attempt to provide a concise, useful guide linking conceptual variable to model variable to Monte Carlo variables designations. Tables give the basic characteristics of the output distributions for each of the 95 output VALs. These appendices describe in technical detail the Monte Carlo techniques used in the uncertainty analysis. The choice of Latin Hypercube sampling and the methodology employed to attribute output variability to input uncertainty is documented. A complete listing of the software and data base used to generate the Monte Carlo analysis is included.

Edmonds, J.A. [Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Washington, DC (United States); Reilly, J.M. [Pacific Northwest Labs., Washington, DC (United States); Gardner, R.H. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Brenkert, A. [Science Applications International Corp., Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

1985-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Life-cycle assessment of municipal solid waste management alternatives with consideration of uncertainty: SIWMS development and application  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the development and application of the Stochastic Integrated Waste Management Simulator (SIWMS) model. SIWMS provides a detailed view of the environmental impacts and associated costs of municipal solid waste (MSW) management alternatives under conditions of uncertainty. The model follows a life-cycle inventory approach extended with compensatory systems to provide more equitable bases for comparing different alternatives. Economic performance is measured by the net present value. The model is verified against four publicly available models under deterministic conditions and then used to study the impact of uncertainty on Sydney's MSW management 'best practices'. Uncertainty has a significant effect on all impact categories. The greatest effect is observed in the global warming category where a reversal of impact direction is predicted. The reliability of the system is most sensitive to uncertainties in the waste processing and disposal. The results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty at all stages to better understand the behaviour of the MSW system.

El Hanandeh, Ali, E-mail: alel5804@uni.sydney.edu.a [School of Civil Engineering, Building J05, University of Sydney NSW 2006 (Australia); El-Zein, Abbas [School of Civil Engineering, Building J05, University of Sydney NSW 2006 (Australia)

2010-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

62

Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios  

SciTech Connect

The determination of climate policy is a decision under uncertainty. The uncertainty in future climate change impacts is large, as is the uncertainty in the costs of potential policies. Rational and economically efficient policy choices will therefore seek to balance the expected marginal costs with the expected marginal benefits. This approach requires that the risks of future climate change be assessed. The decision process need not be formal or quantitative for descriptions of the risks to be useful. Whatever the decision procedure, a useful starting point is to have as accurate a description of climate risks as possible. Given the goal of describing uncertainty in future climate change, we need to characterize the uncertainty in the main causes of uncertainty in climate impacts. One of the major drivers of uncertainty in future climate change is the uncertainty in future emissions, both of greenhouse gases and other radiatively important species such as sulfur dioxide. In turn, the drivers of uncertainty in emissions are uncertainties in the determinants of the rate of economic growth and in the technologies of production and how those technologies will change over time. This project uses historical experience and observations from a large number of countries to construct statistical descriptions of variability and correlation in labor productivity growth and in AEEI. The observed variability then provides a basis for constructing probability distributions for these drivers. The variance of uncertainty in growth rates can be further modified by expert judgment if it is believed that future variability will differ from the past. But often, expert judgment is more readily applied to projected median or expected paths through time. Analysis of past variance and covariance provides initial assumptions about future uncertainty for quantities that are less intuitive and difficult for experts to estimate, and these variances can be normalized and then applied to mean trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.

Mort Webster

2005-10-17T23:59:59.000Z

63

Global Energy Perspectives  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Global Energy Perspectives: Supply Security, Economic Development and Sustainability The Annual Energy Policy Conference of the National Capital Area ...

64

Uncertainty analysis  

SciTech Connect

An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software.

Thomas, R.E.

1982-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

65

Modeling the oil Transition: A Summary of the Proceedings of the DOE/EPA Workshop on the Economic and Environmental Implications of Global Energy Transitions, February 2007  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

7-014 7-014 Modeling the Oil Transition: A Summary of the Proceedings of the DOE/EPA Workshop on the Economic and Environmental Implications of Global Energy Transitions February 2007 David L. Greene, Editor DOCUMENT AVAILABILITY Reports produced after January 1, 1996, are generally available free via the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Information Bridge: Web site: http://www.osti.gov/bridge Reports produced before January 1, 1996, may be purchased by members of the public from the following source: National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 Telephone: 703-605-6000 (1-800-553-6847) TDD: 703-487-4639 Fax: 703-605-6900 E-mail: info@ntis.fedworld.gov Web site: http://www.ntis.gov/support/ordernowabout.htm

66

The uncertainties in estimating measurement uncertainties  

SciTech Connect

All measurements include some error. Whether measurements are used for accountability, environmental programs or process support, they are of little value unless accompanied by an estimate of the measurements uncertainty. This fact is often overlooked by the individuals who need measurements to make decisions. This paper will discuss the concepts of measurement, measurements errors (accuracy or bias and precision or random error), physical and error models, measurement control programs, examples of measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty as related to measurement quality. Measurements are comparisons of unknowns to knowns, estimates of some true value plus uncertainty; and are no better than the standards to which they are compared. Direct comparisons of unknowns that match the composition of known standards will normally have small uncertainties. In the real world, measurements usually involve indirect comparisons of significantly different materials (e.g., measuring a physical property of a chemical element in a sample having a matrix that is significantly different from calibration standards matrix). Consequently, there are many sources of error involved in measurement processes that can affect the quality of a measurement and its associated uncertainty. How the uncertainty estimates are determined and what they mean is as important as the measurement. The process of calculating the uncertainty of a measurement itself has uncertainties that must be handled correctly. Examples of chemistry laboratory measurement will be reviewed in this report and recommendations made for improving measurement uncertainties.

Clark, J.P.; Shull, A.H.

1994-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

67

Global Aerosol Health Impacts: Quantifying Uncertainties  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Atmospheric fine particulate matter <2.5 ?m (PM2.5) can cause cardiovasculatory and respiratory damages and mortalities. Assessing population exposure to and damages from PM2.5 is important for policy, but measurement ...

Selin, Noelle E.

68

On Integrating Theories of International Economics in the Strategic Planning of Global Supply Chains and Dynamic Supply Chain Reconfiguration with Capacity Expansion and Contraction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This dissertation discusses two independent topics. The first part of the dissertation relates three theories of international economics (comparative advantage, competitive advantage, and competitiveness), and formulates the thesis that incorporating them in the form of readily available individual competitiveness indicators in OR/MS models offers promise to enhance decision-support for the strategic planning of global supply chains in general, and for locating facilities in particular. The objectives of this research were to relate each of these theories and to describe their interrelationships; to describe measures provided by two well-known annual competitiveness reports; and to illustrate application of the theories as a means of supporting the thesis of the research, and justifying the research questions we pose for future research. While this research discusses topics relative to the broader background of global supply chain design, it illustrates applications associated with facility location, a component of the global supply chain design. In the last chapter of the first part of the dissertation, we provide a vision to foster future research that will enhance the profitability of international enterprises under NAFTA. The second part of the dissertation deals with the DSCR model with capacity expansion and contraction. The strategic dynamic supply chain reconfiguration (DSCR) problem is to prescribe the location and capacity of each facility, select links used for transportation, and plan material flows through the supply chain, including production, inventory, backorder, and outsourcing levels. The objective is to minimize total cost. The configuration must be dynamically redesigned over time to accommodate changing trends in demand and/or costs by opening facilities, expanding and/or contracting their capacities, and closing facilities. The problem involves a multi-period, multi-product, multi-echelon supply chain. Research objectives are alternative formulations of DSCR and tests that identify the computational characteristics of each model to determine if one offers superior solvability in comparison with the others. To achieve the first objective, we present an initial MIP model, a refined model that relates decision variables according to a convenient structure, and branch and price (B&P) schemes for the refined model. We found that the network-based formulation offered superior solvability compared to the traditional formulation.

Lee, Chaehwa

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

69

Perspectives on Global Change: the TARGETS Approach  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Perspectives on Global Change: the TARGETS Approach Perspectives on Global Change: the TARGETS Approach Speaker(s): Bert DeVries Date: February 6, 1998 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3148 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Richard Sextro TARGETS is a simulation model designed to help explore the future of the world innovatively and to search for adequate operationalization of the concept of sustainable development. It incorporates a unique approach to the study of long-term global change and sustainability issues. The model is distinguished by its treatment of uncertainties through explicit formulation of cultural perspectives on controversial issues, and by its inclusion of a visualisation tool to enable transparent and interactive presentation of scenario analyses. TARGETS embodies an interdisciplinary approach, deals explictly with both physical and socio-economic

70

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

Summary Notes from 15 November 2007 Generic Technical Issue Discussion on Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis and Model Support

71

Basic definitions of uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... Glossary. The following definitions are given in the ISO Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement. Many additional ...

72

Uncertainty Machine — User's Manual  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... Figure 8: Resistance — Densities. ... Supplement 1 to the “Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement” — Propagation of distributions ...

2013-07-19T23:59:59.000Z

73

Sales & operations planning in a global business  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

As companies become more global and begin to outsource manufacturing and other services, the uncertainty in the supply resource increases. Demand uncertainties increase as these same companies expand into new countries to ...

Honstain, Christopher Michael

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

Uncertainties in Gapped Graphene  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Motivated by graphene-based quantum computer we examine the time-dependence of the position-momentum and position-velocity uncertainties in the monolayer gapped graphene. The effect of the energy gap to the uncertainties is shown to appear via the Compton-like wavelength $\\lambda_c$. The uncertainties in the graphene are mainly contributed by two phenomena, spreading and zitterbewegung. While the former determines the uncertainties in the long-range of time, the latter gives the highly oscillation to the uncertainties in the short-range of time. The uncertainties in the graphene are compared with the corresponding values for the usual free Hamiltonian $\\hat{H}_{free} = (p_1^2 + p_2^2) / 2 M$. It is shown that the uncertainties can be under control within the quantum mechanical law if one can choose the gap parameter $\\lambda_c$ freely.

Eylee Jung; Kwang S. Kim; DaeKil Park

2011-07-27T23:59:59.000Z

75

Probabilistic Estimates of Transient Climate Sensitivity Subject to Uncertainty in Forcing and Natural Variability  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, the authors address the impact of uncertainty on estimates of transient climate sensitivity (TCS) of the globally averaged surface temperature, including both uncertainty in past forcing and internal variability in the climate ...

Lauren E. Padilla; Geoffrey K. Vallis; Clarence W. Rowley

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

76

NREL: Energy Analysis - Jobs and Economic Competitiveness  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

in the global renewable energy market. NREL's economic competitiveness analysis efforts focus on assessing: jobs creation, workforce development needs, manufacturing...

77

Interaction between economic dynamical systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The paper considers economic dynamical systems, the state spaces being the Riemannian manifolds. Between two economic dynamical systems, global feedforward and the feedback interaction is defined and the connection between their linearization and prolongation ... Keywords: economic dynamical system, economic flow, feedback, feedforward, linearization, prolongation by derivation

Constantin Patrascoiu

2009-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

78

Quantifying Uncertainty in Epidemiological Models  

SciTech Connect

Modern epidemiology has made use of a number of mathematical models, including ordinary differential equation (ODE) based models and agent based models (ABMs) to describe the dynamics of how a disease may spread within a population and enable the rational design of strategies for intervention that effectively contain the spread of the disease. Although such predictions are of fundamental importance in preventing the next global pandemic, there is a significant gap in trusting the outcomes/predictions solely based on such models. Hence, there is a need to develop approaches such that mathematical models can be calibrated against historical data. In addition, there is a need to develop rigorous uncertainty quantification approaches that can provide insights into when a model will fail and characterize the confidence in the (possibly multiple) model outcomes/predictions, when such retrospective analysis cannot be performed. In this paper, we outline an approach to develop uncertainty quantification approaches for epidemiological models using formal methods and model checking. By specifying the outcomes expected from a model in a suitable spatio-temporal logic, we use probabilistic model checking methods to quantify the probability with which the epidemiological model satisfies the specification. We argue that statistical model checking methods can solve the uncertainty quantification problem for complex epidemiological models.

Ramanathan, Arvind [ORNL; Jha, Sumit Kumar [University of Central Florida

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

79

The Private Regulation of Global Corporate Conduct  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

ameliorate the negative social impacts of global markets isenvironmental and social impacts and the royalty paymentscriticisms of the social impact of economic globalization

Vogel, David

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

80

A Simple Equation for Regional Climate Change and Associated Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Simple equations are developed to express regional climate changes for the twenty-first century and associated uncertainty in terms of the global temperature change (GTC) without a dependence on the underlying emission pathways. The equations are ...

Filippo Giorgi

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Estimating Monthly Precipitation Reconstruction Uncertainty Beginning in 1900  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Uncertainty estimates are computed for a statistical reconstruction of global monthly precipitation that was developed in an earlier publication. The reconstruction combined the use of spatial correlations with gauge precipitation and correlations ...

Thomas M. Smith; Samuel S. P. Shen; Li Ren; Phillip A. Arkin

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

82

Uncertainty in Greenhouse Emissions and Costs of Atmospheric Stabilization  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We explore the uncertainty in projections of emissions, and costs of atmospheric stabilization applying the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model, a computable general equilibrium model of the global economy. ...

Webster, Mort D.

83

The effects of incorporating dynamic data on estimates of uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Petroleum exploration and development are capital intensive and smart economic decisions that need to be made to profitably extract oil and gas from the reservoirs. Accurate quantification of uncertainty in production forecasts will help in assessing risk and making good economic decisions. This study investigates the effect of combining dynamic data with the uncertainty in static data to see the effect on estimates of uncertainty in production forecasting. Fifty permeability realizations were generated for a reservoir in west Texas from available petrophysical data. We quantified the uncertainty in the production forecasts using a likelihood weighting method and an automatic history matching technique combined with linear uncertainty analysis. The results were compared with the uncertainty predicted using only static data. We also investigated approaches for best selecting a smaller number of models from a larger set of realizations to be history matched for quantification of uncertainty. We found that incorporating dynamic data in a reservoir model will result in lower estimates of uncertainty than considering only static data. However, incorporation of dynamic data does not guarantee that the forecasted ranges will encompass the true value. Reliability of the forecasted ranges depends on the method employed. When sampling multiple realizations of static data for history matching to quantify uncertainty, a sampling over the entire range of realization likelihoods shows larger confidence intervals and is more likely to encompass the true value for predicted fluid recoveries, as compared to selecting the best models.

Mulla, Shahebaz Hisamuddin

2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

Characteristic uncertainty relations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

New uncertainty relations for n observables are established. The relations take the invariant form of inequalities between the characteristic coefficients of order r, r = 1,2,...,n, of the uncertainty matrix and the matrix of mean commutators of the observables. It is shown that the second and the third order characteristic inequalities for the three generators of SU(1,1) and SU(2) are minimized in the corresponding group-related coherent states with maximal symmetry.

D. A. Trifonov; S. G. Donev

1998-09-10T23:59:59.000Z

85

Fractured elites : the politics of economic crisis in Mexico  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic crises are such powerful socioeconomic disasters that, not surprisingly, they are usually explained by powerful socioeconomic pressures, such as global financial speculation, structural economic failure, or populist ...

Schlefer, Jonathan King

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

86

Uncertainty and calibration analysis  

SciTech Connect

All measurements contain some deviation from the true value which is being measured. In the common vernacular this deviation between the true value and the measured value is called an inaccuracy, an error, or a mistake. Since all measurements contain errors, it is necessary to accept that there is a limit to how accurate a measurement can be. The undertainty interval combined with the confidence level, is one measure of the accuracy for a measurement or value. Without a statement of uncertainty (or a similar parameter) it is not possible to evaluate if the accuracy of the measurement, or data, is appropriate. The preparation of technical reports, calibration evaluations, and design calculations should consider the accuracy of measurements and data being used. There are many methods to accomplish this. This report provides a consistent method for the handling of measurement tolerances, calibration evaluations and uncertainty calculations. The SRS Quality Assurance (QA) Program requires that the uncertainty of technical data and instrument calibrations be acknowledged and estimated. The QA Program makes some specific technical requirements related to the subject but does not provide a philosophy or method on how uncertainty should be estimated. This report was prepared to provide a technical basis to support the calculation of uncertainties and the calibration of measurement and test equipment for any activity within the Experimental Thermal-Hydraulics (ETH) Group. The methods proposed in this report provide a graded approach for estimating the uncertainty of measurements, data, and calibrations. The method is based on the national consensus standard, ANSI/ASME PTC 19.1.

Coutts, D.A.

1991-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

87

Numerical approach for quantification of epistemic uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In the field of uncertainty quantification, uncertainty in the governing equations may assume two forms: aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. Aleatory uncertainty can be characterised by known probability distributions whilst epistemic uncertainty ... Keywords: Encapsulation problem, Epistemic uncertainty, Generalized polynomial chaos, Stochastic collocation, Uncertainty quantification

John Jakeman; Michael Eldred; Dongbin Xiu

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

Application of price uncertainty quantification models and their impacts on project evaluations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This study presents an analysis of several recently published methods for quantifying the uncertainty in economic evaluations due to uncertainty in future oil prices. Conventional price forecasting methods used in the industry typically underestimate the range of uncertainty in oil and gas price forecasts. These forecasts traditionally consider pessimistic, most-likely, and optimistic cases in an attempt to quantify economic uncertainty. The recently developed alternative methods have their unique strengths as well as weaknesses that may affect their applicability in particular situations. While stochastic methods can improve the assessment of price uncertainty they can also be tedious to implement. The inverted hockey stick method is found to be an easily applied alternative to the stochastic methods. However, the primary basis for validating this method has been found to be unreliable. In this study, a consistent and reliable validation of uncertainty estimates predicted by the inverted hockey stick method is presented. Verifying the reliability of this model will ensure reliable quantification of economic uncertainty. Although we cannot eliminate uncertainty from investment evaluations, we can better quantify the uncertainty by accurately predicting the volatility in future oil and gas prices. Reliably quantifying economic uncertainty will enable operators to make better decisions and allocate their capital with increased efficiency.

Fariyibi, Festus Lekan

2006-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

89

Estimating the Economic Cost of Sea-Level Rise  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To improve the estimate of economic costs of future sea-level rise associated with global climate change,

Sugiyama, Masahiro.

90

LIGHTS: Laboratory for Information Globalization and Harmonization Technologies and Studies  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Three important trends - unrelenting globalization, growing worldwide electronic connectivity, and increasing knowledge intensity of economic activity - are creating new opportunities for global politics, with challenging ...

Choucri, Nazli

2004-03-05T23:59:59.000Z

91

Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development Estimating the Impact of the Hajj: Religion and Tolerance in Islam’s Global Gathering  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We estimate the impact on pilgrims of performing the Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca. Our method compares successful and unsuccessful applicants in a lottery used by Pakistan to allocate Hajj visas. Pilgrim accounts stress that the Hajj leads to a feeling of unity with fellow Muslims, but outsiders have sometimes feared that this could be accompanied by antipathy toward non-Muslims. We find that participation in the Hajj increases observance of global Islamic practices such as prayer and fasting while decreasing participation in localized practices and beliefs such as the use of amulets and dowry. It increases belief in equality and harmony among ethnic groups and Islamic sects and leads to more favorable attitudes toward women, including greater acceptance of female education and employment. Increased unity within the Islamic world is not accompanied by antipathy toward non-Muslims. Instead, Hajjis show increased belief in peace, and in equality and harmony among adherents of different religions. The evidence suggests that these changes are more a result of exposure to and interaction with Hajjis from around the world, rather than religious instruction

David Clingingsmith; Asim Ijaz Khwaja; Michael Kremer; David Clingingsmith; Asim Ijaz Khwaja; Michael Kremer

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

ECONOMIC REPORT ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT Economic Report of the President | 3 ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To the Congress of the United States: Over the past 6 years of economic expansion, the American economy has proven its strength and resilience. Job creation grew uninterrupted for a record period of time, inflation remains moderate, unemployment is low, and productivity continues to grow. The economy is built upon a strong foundation, with deep and sophisticated capital markets, flexible labor markets, low taxes, and open trade and investment policies. Americans should be confident about the long-term strength of our economy, but our economy is undergoing a period of uncertainty, and there are heightened risks to our near-term economic growth. To insure against

93

Electoral Competition, Political Uncertainty and Policy Insulation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Uncertainty and Policy Insulation Horn, Murray. 1995. TheUncertainty and Policy Insulation United States Congress.UNCERTAINTY AND POLICY INSULATION Rui J. P. de Figueiredo,

de Figueiredo, Rui J. P. Jr.

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

Biofuel Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

prices,  global  warming  and  renewable   resources  continue  to  grow,  so  has  scientific  discovery  into  agricultural  biomass  

Klein-Marcuschamer, Daniel

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

95

APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic

Katz, Richard

96

Increasing Global Renewable Energy Market Share  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to experience even greater energy supply uncertainties and price increases from fossil fuels. Recent trendsIncreasing Global Renewable Energy Market Share: Recent Trends and Perspectives Final Report a time of growing volatility and uncertainty in world energy markets. Oil price increases, which hit oil

Damm, Werner

97

Contour Global L P | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

in under-served markets, such as that for renewable energy technologies and Combined Heat and Power (CHP), within developed economics. References Contour Global L.P.1...

98

Demand Uncertainty and Price Dispersion.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Demand uncertainty has been recognized as one factor that may cause price dispersion in perfectly competitive markets with costly and perishable capacity. With the persistence… (more)

Li, Suxi

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

99

Integrated modelling of risk and uncertainty underlying the cost and effectiveness of water quality measures  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper we present an overview of the most important sources of uncertainty when analysing the least cost way to improve water quality. The estimation of the cost-effectiveness of water quality measures is surrounded by environmental, economic ... Keywords: Cost-effectiveness, Integrated modelling, Risk, Uncertainty, Water quality

Roy Brouwer; Chris De Blois

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

Benefits to the United States of Increasing Global Uptake of Clean Energy Technologies  

SciTech Connect

A previous report describes an opportunity for the United States to take leadership in efforts to transform the global energy system toward clean energy technologies (CET). An accompanying analysis to that report provides estimates of the economic benefits to the United States of such a global transformation on the order of several hundred billion dollars per year by 2050. This report describes the methods and assumptions used in developing those benefit estimates. It begins with a summary of the results of the analysis based on an updated and refined model completed since the publication of the previous report. The framework described can be used to estimate the economic benefits to the U.S. of coordinated global action to increase the uptake of CETs worldwide. Together with a Monte Carlo simulation engine, the framework can be used to develop plausible ranges for benefits, taking into account the large uncertainty in the driving variables and economic parameters. The resulting estimates illustrate that larger global clean energy markets offer significant opportunities to the United States economy.

Kline, D.

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Assessing Hydrologic Impact of Climate Change with Uncertainty Estimates: Bayesian Neural Network Approach  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A major challenge in assessing the hydrologic effect of climate change remains the estimation of uncertainties associated with different sources, such as the global climate models, emission scenarios, downscaling methods, and hydrologic models. ...

Mohammad Sajjad Khan; Paulin Coulibaly

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing Uncertainty Based on a Radiative Perturbation Analysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To provide a lower bound for the uncertainty in measurement-based clear- and all-sky direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF), a radiative perturbation analysis is performed for the ideal case in which the perturbations in global mean aerosol ...

Norman G. Loeb; Wenying Su

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

103

Many-objective de Novo water supply portfolio planning under deep uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes and demonstrates a new interactive framework for sensitivity-informed de Novo planning to confront the deep uncertainty within water management problems. The framework couples global sensitivity analysis using Sobol' variance decomposition ... Keywords: Decision support, Many-objective decision analytics, Multiobjective evolutionary algorithms, Risk, Robust decision making, Sensitivity analysis, Uncertainty

Joseph R. Kasprzyk; Patrick M. Reed; Gregory W. Characklis; Brian R. Kirsch

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

104

Uncertainty in Scenarios of Human-Caused Climate NATHAN J MANTUA1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations, and second is the uncertainty associated for eliminating, or even vastly reducing, environmental uncertainty for the purpose of improved natural resource emerged on key aspects of global climate change: humans have unquestionably altered the composition

Mantua, Nathan

105

Globalization, Offshoring, and Economic Convergence: A Synthesis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Compensation, Benefits, Job Analysis Specialists Managementof Service Sector Jobs The analysis has so far focused on

Jaffee, Dwight M

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

106

Economic Report  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Transmitted to the Congress February 2008 Transmitted to the Congress February 2008 Together with the Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers Economic Report of the President Economic Report of the President For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800 ISBN 978-0-16-079822-1 Transmitted to the Congress February 2008 together with THE ANNUAL REPORT of the COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 2008 Fax: (202) 512-2104 Mail Stop: IDCC, Washington, DC 20402-0001 C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT ............................................. ANNUAL REPORT OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS* ...

107

UNFINISHED BUSINESS: The Economics of The Kyoto Protocol  

SciTech Connect

The Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) was completed on the morning of December 11, 1997, following over two years of negotiations. The product of these deliberations is a complex and incomplete document knitting together the diversity of interests and perspectives represented by the more than 150 delegations. Because the document is complex, its implications are not immediately obvious. If it enters into force, the Kyoto Protocol will have far-reaching implications for all nations--both nations with obligations under the Protocol and those without obligations. National energy systems, and the world's energy system, could be forever changed. In this paper the authors develop an assessment of the energy and economic implications of achieving the goals of the Kyoto Protocol. They find that many of the details of the Protocol that remain to be worked out introduce critical uncertainties affecting the cost of compliance. There are also a variety of uncertainties that further complicate the analysis. These include future non-CO{sub 2} greenhouse gas emissions and the cost of their mitigation. Other uncertainties include the resolution of negotiations to establish rules for determining and allocating land-use emissions rights, mechanisms for Annex 1 trading, and participation by non-Annex 1 members in the Clean Development Mechanism. In addition, there are economic uncertainties, such as the behavior of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union in supplying emissions credits under Annex 1 trading. These uncertainties in turn could affect private sector investments in anticipation of the Protocol's entrance into force. The longer the nature of future obligations remains unclear, the less able decision makers will be to incorporate these rules into their investment decisions. They find that the cost of implementing the Protocol in the US can vary by more than an order of magnitude. The marginal cost could be as low as $26 per tonne of carbon if a global system of emissions mitigation could be quickly and effectively implemented. But it could also exceed $250 per tonne of carbon if the US must meet its emissions limitations entirely through domestic actions, and if mitigation obligations are not adequately anticipated by decision-makers.

JA Edmonds; CN MacCracken; RD Sands; SH Kim

2000-07-06T23:59:59.000Z

108

Globalization at NTT DoCoMo : implementing global business management strategies  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Global business management has become one of the most important issues facing companies today, and global economic dynamics provide companies with both tremendous opportunities and formidable challenges. Countries are ...

Takagi, Katsuyuki, 1964-

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

Global Security  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Global Security Global Security LANL's mission is to develop and apply science and technology to ensure the safety, security, and effectiveness of the U.S. nuclear deterrent;...

110

Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and future of non-fossil energies. In the last chapter, Smilenergy consumption and its price fluctuations. The future of fossil

Mirza, Umar Karim

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

111

Autonomous Exploration: Driven by Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Autonomous Exploration: Driven by Uncertainty Peter Whaite and Frank P. Ferrie TR-CIM-93-17 1993-6319 Telex: 05 268510 FAX: 514 398-7348 Email: cim@cim.mcgill.ca #12;Autonomous Exploration: Driven

Dudek, Gregory

112

Bayesian calibration Uncertainty Sensitivity analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

available at www.sciencedirect.com journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolmodel Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis from a coupled 3-PG and soil organic matter decomposition model

Monte Carlo; Markov Chain

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

Uncertainty in Air Quality Modeling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Under the direction of the AMS Steering Committee for the EPA Cooperative Agreement on Air Quality Modeling, a small group of scientists convened to consider the question of uncertainty in air quality modeling. Because the group was particularly ...

Douglas G. Fox

1984-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 September 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 September 8, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged about $77 per barrel in August 2010, very close to the July average, but $3 per barrel lower than projected in last month's Outlook. WTI spot prices averaged almost $82 per barrel over the first 10 days of August but then fell by $9 per barrel over the next 2 weeks as the market reacted to a series of reports of a stumbling economic recovery. EIA has lowered its average fourth quarter 2010 WTI spot price forecast to $77 per barrel, compared with $81 in last month's Outlook. WTI spot prices are projected to

115

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

April 2010 April 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 April 6, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $81 per barrel in March 2010, almost $5 per barrel above the prior month's average and $3 per barrel higher than forecast in last month's Outlook. Oil prices rose from a low this year of $71.15 per barrel on February 5 to $80 per barrel by the end of February, generally on news of robust economic and energy demand growth in non-OECD Asia and the Middle East, and held near $81 until rising to $85 at the start of April. EIA expects WTI prices to average above $81 per barrel this summer, slightly less that $81 for 2010 as a whole,

116

Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consider a valuable renewable resource whose biomass X2003. “Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty,”Harvesting a Renewable Resource under Uncertainty 1 (with

Saphores, Jean-Daniel M

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

The Global Grid  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper puts forward the vision that a natural future stage of the electricity network could be a grid spanning the whole planet and connecting most of the large power plants in the world: this is the "Global Grid". The main driving force behind the Global Grid will be the harvesting of remote renewable sources, and its key infrastructure element will be the high capacity long transmission lines. Wind farms and solar power plants will supply load centers with green power over long distances. This paper focusses on the introduction of the concept, showing that a globally interconnected network can be technologically feasible and economically competitive. We further highlight the multiple opportunities emerging from a global electricity network such as smoothing the renewable energy supply and electricity demand, reducing the need for bulk storage, and reducing the volatility of the energy prices. We also discuss possible investment mechanisms and operating schemes. Among others, we envision in such a system...

Chatzivasileiadis, Spyros; Andersson, Göran

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

Global climate feedbacks  

SciTech Connect

The important physical, chemical, and biological events that affect global climate change occur on a mesoscale -- requiring high spatial resolution for their analysis. The Department of Energy has formulated two major initiatives under the US Global Change Program: ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurements), and CHAMMP (Computer Hardware Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics). ARM is designed to use ground and air-craft based observations to document profiles of atmospheric composition, clouds, and radiative fluxes. With research and models of important physical processes, ARM will delineate the relationships between trace gases, aerosol and cloud structure, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, and will improve the parameterization of global circulation models. The present GCMs do not model important feedbacks, including those from clouds, oceans, and land processes. The purpose of this workshop is to identify such potential feedbacks, to evaluate the uncertainties in the feedback processes (and, if possible, to parameterize the feedback processes so that they can be treated in a GCM), and to recommend research programs that will reduce the uncertainties in important feedback processes. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases.

Manowitz, B.

1990-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

119

Integrated Economic and Climate Projections for Impact Assessment  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We designed scenarios for impact assessment that explicitly address policy choices and uncertainty in climate response. Economic projections and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions for the “no climate policy” scenario ...

Paltsev, Sergey

120

Coupled dynamics and economic analysis of floating wind turbine systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Against the backdrop of rising oil prices and increasing uncertainty in the future of energy and the health of the environment, wind energy is distinguished as a leading technology that is both technologically and economically ...

Wayman, E. N. (Elizabeth N.)

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Potential Economic Value of Ensemble-Based Surface Weather Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The possible economic value of the quantification of uncertainty in future ensemble-based surface weather forecasts is investigated using a formal, idealized decision model. Current, or baseline, weather forecasts are represented by probabilistic ...

Daniel S. Wilks; Thomas M. Hamill

1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

122

Priorities in global climate change research. Hearings before the Subcommittee on Science of the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, US House of Representatives, One Hundred Second Congress, First Session, October 8, 10, 1991  

SciTech Connect

A hearing on the greenhouse effect brought testimony from various government and environmental officials. The panelists reviewed the major sources of uncertainty in the scientific evidence for global warming and in the models used to forecast climate change. They highlighted the most critical research areas and issues that ought to be addressed in order to improve the scientific basis for assessing the effects of global warming. In addition, the dependability was reviewed of economic models available to assess different options for mitigation and for adaptation to greenhouse warming projections.

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

123

ECONOMIC DISPATCH  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

ECONOMIC DISPATCH ECONOMIC DISPATCH OF ELECTRIC GENERATION CAPACITY A REPORT TO CONGRESS AND THE STATES PURSUANT TO SECTIONS 1234 AND 1832 OF THE ENERGY POLICY ACT OF 2005 United States Department of Energy February 2007 ECONOMIC DISPATCH OF ELECTRIC GENERATION CAPACITY A REPORT TO CONGRESS AND THE STATES PURSUANT TO SECTIONS 1234 AND 1832 OF THE ENERGY POLICY ACT OF 2005 Sections 1234 and 1832 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct) 1 direct the U.S. Department of Energy (the Department, or DOE) to: 1) Study the procedures currently used by electric utilities to perform economic dispatch; 2) Identify possible revisions to those procedures to improve the ability of non-utility generation resources to offer their output for sale for the purpose of inclusion in

124

RUMINATIONS ON NDA MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY COMPARED TO DA UNCERTAINTY  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

2010-06-17T23:59:59.000Z

125

PROBABILISTIC SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS WORKSHOP SUMMARY REPORT  

SciTech Connect

Stochastic or probabilistic modeling approaches are being applied more frequently in the United States and globally to quantify uncertainty and enhance understanding of model response in performance assessments for disposal of radioactive waste. This increased use has resulted in global interest in sharing results of research and applied studies that have been completed to date. This technical report reflects the results of a workshop that was held to share results of research and applied work related to performance assessments conducted at United States Department of Energy sites. Key findings of this research and applied work are discussed and recommendations for future activities are provided.

Seitz, R

2008-06-25T23:59:59.000Z

126

Monetizing stranded gas : economic valuation of GTL and LNG projects.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Globally, there are significant quantities of natural gas reserves that lie economically or physically stranded from markets. Options to monetize such reserves include Gas to… (more)

Black, Brodie Gene, 1986-

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

ECONOMIC POLICY The State's Tax  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the solar furnace here on Earth, and to extract energy from plant waste; they are ex- ploring ways to store efficient that they can also power vehicles. As the former chief economist of the World Bank, Nicho- las economic growth. They also offer the only chance to slow down the global rise in temperatures associated

128

Energy and environmental policy and electric utilities' choice under uncertain global warming  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The paper reviews and discusses uncertainty about global warming science, impact on society. It also discusses what assumptions have been made and how appropriate the assumptions in scenarios have been for estimating global ...

Takahashi, Masaki

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) Version 2: Model Description and Baseline Evaluation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) is designed for analyzing the global environmental changes that may result from anthropogenic causes, quantifying the uncertainties associated with the projected changes, and ...

Sokolov, Andrei P.

130

Sensitivity of Climate Change Projections to Uncertainties in the Estimates of Observed Changes in Deep-Ocean Heat Content  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The MIT 2D climate model is used to make probabilistic projections for changes in global mean surface temperature and for thermosteric sea level rise under a variety of forcing scenarios. The uncertainties in climate ...

Sokolov, Andrei P.

131

Economic impact  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In federal fiscal year 2000 (FY00), Berkeley Lab had 4,347 full- and part-time employees. In addition, at any given time of the year, there were more than 1,000 Laboratory guests. These guests, who also reside locally, have an important economic impact on the nine-county Bay Area. However, Berkeley Lab's total economic impact transcends the direct effects of payroll and purchasing. The direct dollars paid to the Lab's employees in the form of wages, salaries, and benefits, and payments made to contractors for goods and services, are respent by employees and contractors again and again in the local and greater economy. Further, while Berkeley Lab has a strong reputation for basic scientific research, many of the Lab's scientific discoveries and inventions have had direct application in industry, spawning new businesses and creating new opportunities for existing firms. This analysis updates the Economic Impact Analysis done in 1996, and its purpose is to describe the economic and geographic impact of Laboratory expenditures and to provide a qualitative understanding of how Berkeley Lab impacts and supports the local community. It is intended as a guide for state, local, and national policy makers as well as local community members. Unless otherwise noted, this analysis uses data from FY00, the most recent year for which full data are available.

Technology Transfer Department

2001-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

132

global | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

global global Dataset Summary Description GIS data for offshore wind speed (meters/second). Specified to Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ).Wind resource based on NOAA blended sea winds and monthly wind speed at 30km resolution, using a 0.11 wind sheer to extrapolate 10m - 90m. Annual average >= 10 months of data, no nulls. Source National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Date Released Unknown Date Updated Unknown Keywords GIS global NOAA NREL offshore wind wind speed Data application/zip icon Download Shapefile (zip, 18.5 MiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Some Review Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Time Period License License Other or unspecified, see optional comment below Comment Please cite NREL and NOAA Rate this dataset Usefulness of the metadata

133

Using NASA Remote Sensing Data to Reduce Uncertainty of Land-Use Transitions in  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

NASA Remote Sensing Data to Reduce Uncertainty of Land-Use Transitions in NASA Remote Sensing Data to Reduce Uncertainty of Land-Use Transitions in Global Carbon-Climate Models: Data Management Plan L. Chini, G.C. Hurtt, M. Hansen, and P. Potapov Department of Geography University of Maryland The following Data Management Plan was part of the NASA ROSES 2012 Proposal Using NASA Remote Sensing Data to Reduce Uncertainty of Land-Use Transitions in Global Carbon- Climate Models (summary) submitted to the Terrestrial Ecology Program. It is presented as an example plan. Data Management Plan The proposed project will generate important new datasets of remote-sensing-based land-use transitions and their inherent uncertainty. Our plan for managing these datasets includes quality assessment, long-term archiving, and data sharing and dissemination (along with documentation

134

Experimental uncertainty estimation and statistics for data having interval uncertainty.  

SciTech Connect

This report addresses the characterization of measurements that include epistemic uncertainties in the form of intervals. It reviews the application of basic descriptive statistics to data sets which contain intervals rather than exclusively point estimates. It describes algorithms to compute various means, the median and other percentiles, variance, interquartile range, moments, confidence limits, and other important statistics and summarizes the computability of these statistics as a function of sample size and characteristics of the intervals in the data (degree of overlap, size and regularity of widths, etc.). It also reviews the prospects for analyzing such data sets with the methods of inferential statistics such as outlier detection and regressions. The report explores the tradeoff between measurement precision and sample size in statistical results that are sensitive to both. It also argues that an approach based on interval statistics could be a reasonable alternative to current standard methods for evaluating, expressing and propagating measurement uncertainties.

Kreinovich, Vladik (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Oberkampf, William Louis (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Ginzburg, Lev (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Ferson, Scott (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Hajagos, Janos (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York)

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

135

Data uncertainty impact in radiotoxicity evaluation connected to EFR and IRF systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time-dependent sensitivity techniques, which have been used in the past for standard reactor applications, have been adapted to calculate the impact of data uncertainties in radiotoxicity evaluations. The methodology has been applied to different strategies of radioactive waste management connected with the EFR and IFR reactor fuel cycles. Results are provided in terms of sensitivity coefficients to basic data (cross sections and decay constants), and uncertainties on global radiotoxicity at different times of storing after discharge.

Palmiotti, G.; Salvatores, M. [CEA Centre d`Etudes Nucleaires de Cadarache, 13 - Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France). Direction des Reacteurs Nucleaires; Hill, R.N. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)

1993-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

136

WEB RESOURCE. Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) - TMS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Jun 22, 2007 ... The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) seeks to develop worldwide consensus on enabling expanded use of economical, carbon-free ...

137

Uncertainty, information and project evaluation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper presents a practical method for project evaluation using techniques of financial economics which were developed originally for valuing stock options and other financial assets. It is based on the formulation and ...

Jacoby, Henry D.

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

138

Quantifying uncertainty from material inhomogeneity.  

SciTech Connect

Most engineering materials are inherently inhomogeneous in their processing, internal structure, properties, and performance. Their properties are therefore statistical rather than deterministic. These inhomogeneities manifest across multiple length and time scales, leading to variabilities, i.e. statistical distributions, that are necessary to accurately describe each stage in the process-structure-properties hierarchy, and are ultimately the primary source of uncertainty in performance of the material and component. When localized events are responsible for component failure, or when component dimensions are on the order of microstructural features, this uncertainty is particularly important. For ultra-high reliability applications, the uncertainty is compounded by a lack of data describing the extremely rare events. Hands-on testing alone cannot supply sufficient data for this purpose. To date, there is no robust or coherent method to quantify this uncertainty so that it can be used in a predictive manner at the component length scale. The research presented in this report begins to address this lack of capability through a systematic study of the effects of microstructure on the strain concentration at a hole. To achieve the strain concentration, small circular holes (approximately 100 {micro}m in diameter) were machined into brass tensile specimens using a femto-second laser. The brass was annealed at 450 C, 600 C, and 800 C to produce three hole-to-grain size ratios of approximately 7, 1, and 1/7. Electron backscatter diffraction experiments were used to guide the construction of digital microstructures for finite element simulations of uniaxial tension. Digital image correlation experiments were used to qualitatively validate the numerical simulations. The simulations were performed iteratively to generate statistics describing the distribution of plastic strain at the hole in varying microstructural environments. In both the experiments and simulations, the deformation behavior was found to depend strongly on the character of the nearby microstructure.

Battaile, Corbett Chandler; Emery, John M.; Brewer, Luke N.; Boyce, Brad Lee

2009-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

139

Global crop yield losses from recent warming  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Global yields of the world-s six most widely grown crops--wheat, rice, maize, soybeans, barley, sorghum--have increased since 1961. Year-to-year variations in growing season minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation explain 30% or more of the variations in yield. Since 1991, climate trends have significantly decreased yield trends in all crops but rice, leading to foregone production since 1981 of about 12 million tons per year of wheat or maize, representing an annual economic loss of $1.2 to $1.7 billion. At the global scale, negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields are already apparent. Annual global temperatures have increased by {approx}0.4 C since 1980, with even larger changes observed in several regions (1). While many studies have considered the impacts of future climate changes on food production (2-5), the effects of these past changes on agriculture remain unclear. It is likely that warming has improved yields in some areas, reduced them in others, and had negligible impacts in still others; the relative balance of these effects at the global scale is unknown. An understanding of this balance would help to anticipate impacts of future climate changes, as well as to more accurately assess recent (and thereby project future) technologically driven yield progress. Separating the contribution of climate from concurrent changes in other factors--such as crop cultivars, management practices, soil quality, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) levels--requires models that describe the response of yields to climate. Studies of future global impacts of climate change have typically relied on a bottom-up approach, whereby field scale, process-based models are applied to hundreds of representative sites and then averaged (e.g., ref 2). Such approaches require input data on soil and management conditions, which are often difficult to obtain. Limitations on data quality or quantity can thus limit the utility of this approach, especially at the local scale (6-8). At the global scale, however, many of the processes and impacts captured by field scale models will tend to cancel out, and therefore simpler empirical/statistical models with fewer input requirements may be as accurate (8, 9). Empirical/statistical models also allow the effects of poorly modeled processes (e.g., pest dynamics) to be captured and uncertainties to be readily quantified (10). Here we develop new, empirical/statistical models of global yield responses to climate using datasets on broad-scale yields, crop locations, and climate variability. We focus on global average yields for the six most widely grown crops in the world: wheat, rice, maize, soybeans, barley, and sorghum. Production of these crops accounts for over 40% of global cropland area (11). 55% of non-meat calories, and over 70% of animal feed (12).

Lobell, D; Field, C

2006-06-02T23:59:59.000Z

140

Impact of PDF uncertainties at large x on heavy boson production  

SciTech Connect

We explore the sensitivity of W and Z boson production in hadronic collisions to uncertainties in parton distribution functions (PDFs) at large x arising from uncertainties in nuclear corrections when using deuterium data in global QCD fits. The W and Z differential cross sections show increasing influence of nuclear corrections at high boson rapidities, particularly for the d quark, which is diluted somewhat in the decay lepton rapidity distributions. The effects of PDF uncertainties on heavy W' and Z' bosons beyond the Standard Model become progressively more important for larger boson masses or rapidities, both in p-p collisions at the LHC and in p-pbar scattering at the Tevatron.

L. T. Brady, A. Accardi, W. Melnitchouk, J. F. Owens

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Biofuel Economics  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

As concerns regarding increasing energy prices, global warming and renewable resources continue to grow, so has scientific discovery into agricultural biomass conversion. Plant Biomass Conversion addresses both the development of plant biomass and conversion technology, in addition to issues surrounding biomass conversion, such as the affect on water resources and soil sustainability. This book also offers a brief overview of the current status of the industry and examples of production plants being used in current biomass conversion efforts.

Klein-Marcuschamer, Daniel; Holmes, Brad; Simmons, Blake; Blanch, Harvey

2011-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

142

Multidelity approaches for design under uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Uncertainties are present in many engineering applications and it is important to account for their effects during engineering design to achieve robust and reliable systems. One approach is to represent uncertainties as ...

Ng, Leo Wai-Tsun

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

143

Optimization under uncertainty in radiation therapy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In the context of patient care for life-threatening illnesses, the presence of uncertainty may compromise the quality of a treatment. In this thesis, we investigate robust approaches to managing uncertainty in radiation ...

Chan, Timothy Ching-Yee

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

144

Evolving a global armaments logistics strategy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Few companies globally source and manage commercial transportation for frequent and high volumes of explosive cargo for the U. S. Department of Defense. U.S. regulations are strict and economically competitive options are ...

Peck, Nathan (Nathan W.)

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

Operational Space Technology for Global Vegetation Assessment  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The main goal of global agriculture and the grain sector is to feed 6 billion people. Frequent droughts causing grain shortages, economic disturbances, famine, and losses of life limit the ability to fulfill this goal. To mitigate drought ...

Felix N. Kogan

2001-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Production of biochar (the carbon-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass), in combination with its storage in soils, has been suggested as a means to abate anthropogenic climate change, while simultaneously increasing crop yields. The climate mitigation potential stems primarily from the highly recalcitrant nature of biochar, which slows the rate at which photosynthetically fixed carbon is returned to the atmosphere. Significant uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity, and sustainability of biochar for carbon capture and storage when scaled to the global level. Previous estimates, based on simple assumptions, vary widely. Here we show that, subject to strict environmental and modest economic constraints on biomass procurement and biochar production methods, annual net emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O could be reduced by 1.1 - 1.9 Pg CO2-C equivalent (CO2-Ce)/yr (7 - 13% of current anthropogenic CO2-Ce emissions; 1Pg = 1 Gt). Over one century, cumulative net emissions of these gases could be reduced by 72-140 Pg CO2-Ce. The lower end of this range uses currently untapped residues and wastes; the upper end requires substantial alteration to global biomass management, but would not endanger food security, habitat or soil conservation. Half the avoided emissions are due to the net C sequestered as biochar, one-quarter to replacement of fossil-fuel energy by pyrolysis energy, and one-quarter to avoided emissions of CH4 and N2O. The total mitigation potential is 18-30% greater than if the same biomass were combusted to produce energy. Despite limited data for the decomposition rate of biochar in soils and the effects of biochar additions on soil greenhouse-gas fluxes, sensitivity within realistic ranges of these parameters is small, resulting in an uncertainty of ±8% (±1 s.d.) in our estimates. Achieving these mitigation results requires, however, that biochar production be performed using only low-emissions technologies and feedstocks obtained sustainably, with minimal carbon debt incurred from land-use change.

Woolf, Dominic; Amonette, James E.; Street-Perrott, F. A.; Lehmann, Johannes C.; Joseph, Stephen

2010-08-10T23:59:59.000Z

147

Reliable water supply system design under uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Given the natural variability and uncertainties in long-term predictions, reliability is a critical design factor for water supply systems. However, the large scale of the problem and the correlated nature of the involved uncertainties result in models ... Keywords: Data uncertainty, Robust optimization, Spatially correlated data, Water supply system

G. Chung; K. Lansey; G. Bayraksan

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

Quantum Mechanics and the Generalized Uncertainty Principle  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The generalized uncertainty principle has been described as a general consequence of incorporating a minimal length from a theory of quantum gravity. We consider a simple quantum mechanical model where the operator corresponding to position has discrete eigenvalues and show how the generalized uncertainty principle results for minimum uncertainty wave packets.

Jang Young Bang; Micheal S. Berger

2006-10-11T23:59:59.000Z

149

Uncertainty Assessments in Severe Nuclear Accident Scenarios  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Managing uncertainties in industrial systems is a daily challenge to ensure improved design, robust operation, accountable performance and responsive risk control. This paper aims to illustrate the different depth analyses that the uncertainty software ... Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, nuclear power plant, sensitivity analysis, severe accident, uncertainty

Bertrand Iooss; Fabrice Gaudier; Michel Marques; Bertrand Spindler; Bruno Tourniaire

2009-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

Economic and policy implications of pandemic influenza.  

SciTech Connect

Pandemic influenza has become a serious global health concern; in response, governments around the world have allocated increasing funds to containment of public health threats from this disease. Pandemic influenza is also recognized to have serious economic implications, causing illness and absence that reduces worker productivity and economic output and, through mortality, robs nations of their most valuable assets - human resources. This paper reports two studies that investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic flu outbreak. Policy makers can use the growing number of economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. Experts recognize that pandemic influenza has serious global economic implications. The illness causes absenteeism, reduced worker productivity, and therefore reduced economic output. This, combined with the associated mortality rate, robs nations of valuable human resources. Policy makers can use economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. In this paper economists examine two studies which investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak. Resulting policy implications are also discussed. The research uses the Regional Economic Modeling, Inc. (REMI) Policy Insight + Model. This model provides a dynamic, regional, North America Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry-structured framework for forecasting. It is supported by a population dynamics model that is well-adapted to investigating macro-economic implications of pandemic influenza, including possible demand side effects. The studies reported in this paper exercise all of these capabilities.

Smith, Braeton J.; Starks, Shirley J.; Loose, Verne W.; Brown, Theresa Jean; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

Argonne CNM Highlight: Deciphering Uncertainties in the Cost of Solar  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Deciphering Uncertainties in the Cost of Solar Energy Deciphering Uncertainties in the Cost of Solar Energy Photovoltaic electricity is a rapidly growing renewable energy source and will ultimately assume a major role in global energy production. The cost of solar-generated electricity is typically compared with electricity produced by traditional sources with a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) calculation. Generally, LCOE is treated as a definite number, and the assumptions lying beneath that result are rarely reported or even understood. We shed light on some of the key assumptions and offer a new approach to calculating LCOE for photovoltaics based on input parameter distributions feeding a Monte Carlo simulation. In this framework, the influence of assumptions and confidence intervals becomes clear.

152

Economic Sustainability  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This report is part of a series of research studies into alternative energy and resource pathways for the global economy. In addition to disseminating original research findings, these studies are intended to contribute to policy dialog and public awareness about environment-economy linkages and sustainable growth. All opinions expressed here are those of the author and should not be attributed to their affiliated institutions. For this project on Energy Pathways, we express thanks to Next 10, who recognized the importance of this issue for California’s sustainable growth agenda and provided conceptual impetus and financial support. Thanks are also due for outstanding research assistance by the following:

David Roland-holst; Fredrich Kahrl; Jennifer Baranoff; Alex Cheng; Adrian Li; Jennifer Ly; Cristy Sanada; Lawrence Shing; Sam Beckerman; Billie Chow; Deal Shelley Jiang; Tom Lueker; Xian Ming Li; Mehmet Seflek; F. Noel Perry; Morrow Cater; Sarah Henry; Adam Rose; John A. “skip

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

Dark Energy from Quantum Uncertainty of Simultaneity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The observed acceleration expansion of the universe was thought attribute to a mysterious dark energy in the framework of the classical general relativity. The dark energy behaves very similar with a vacuum energy in quantum mechanics. However, once the quantum effects are seriously taken into account, it predicts a wrong order of the vacuum energy and leads to a severe fine-tuning, known as the cosmological constant problem. We abandon the standard interpretation that time is a global parameter in quantum mechanics, replace it by a quantum dynamical variable playing the role of an operational quantum clock system. In the framework of reinterpretation of time, we find that the synchronization of two quantum clocks distance apart can not be realized in all rigor at quantum level. Thus leading to an intrinsic quantum uncertainty of simultaneity between spatial interval, which implies a visional vacuum energy fluctuation and gives an observed dark energy density $\\rho_{de}=\\frac{6}{\\pi}L_{P}^{-2}L_{H}^{-2}$, whe...

Luo, M J

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

Dark Energy from Quantum Uncertainty of Simultaneity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The observed acceleration expansion of the universe was thought attribute to a mysterious dark energy in the framework of the classical general relativity. The dark energy behaves very similar with a vacuum energy in quantum mechanics. However, once the quantum effects are seriously taken into account, it predicts a wrong order of the vacuum energy and leads to a severe fine-tuning, known as the cosmological constant problem. We abandon the standard interpretation that time is a global parameter in quantum mechanics, replace it by a quantum dynamical variable playing the role of an operational quantum clock system. In the framework of reinterpretation of time, we find that the synchronization of two quantum clocks distance apart can not be realized in all rigor at quantum level. Thus leading to an intrinsic quantum uncertainty of simultaneity between spatial interval, which implies a visional vacuum energy fluctuation and gives an observed dark energy density $\\rho_{de}=\\frac{6}{\\pi}L_{P}^{-2}L_{H}^{-2}$, where $L_{P}$ and $L_{H}$ are the Planck and Hubble scale cut-off. The expectation value of zero-point energy automatically vanishes under the quantum dynamical time variable. The fraction of the dark energy is precisely given by $\\Omega_{de}=\\frac{2}{\\pi}$, which does not evolve with the quantum dynamical time variable, so it is "always" comparable to the matter energy density or the critical density. This theory is consistent with current cosmic observations.

M. J. Luo

2014-01-11T23:59:59.000Z

155

Uncertainties in forecasting future climate  

SciTech Connect

The increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons, and other trace gases (collectively, greenhouse gases) pose a three-part challenge: (1) What the changes to atmospheric composition and the climate system will be; (2) What impacts (both detrimental and beneficial) these changes will induce on the biosphere and natural and societal resources; and (3) What the appropriate response, if any, might be when considering the changes themselves, the resulting impacts, and the benefits and other impacts of the activities generating the emissions. This brief summary will address only areas of agreement and areas of uncertainty related to the first challenge.

MacCracken, M.C.

1990-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

156

Essays on pricing under uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This dissertation analyzes pricing under uncertainty focusing on the U.S. airline industry. It sets to test theories of price dispersion driven by uncertainty in the demand by taking advantage of very detailed information about the dynamics of airline prices and inventory levels as the flight date approaches. Such detailed information about inventories at a ticket level to analyze airline pricing has been used previously by the author to show the importance of capacity constraints in airline pricing. This dissertation proposes and implements many new ideas to analyze airline pricing. Among the most important are: (1) It uses information about inventories at a ticket level. (2) It is the first to note that fare changes can be explained by adding dummy variables representing ticket characteristics. Therefore, the load factor at a ticket level will lose its explanatory power on fares if all ticket characteristics are included in a pricing equation. (3) It is the first to propose and implement a measure of Expected Load Factor as a tool to identify which flights are peak and which ones are not. (4) It introduces a novel idea of comparing actual sales with average sales at various points prior departure. Using these deviations of actual sales from sales under average conditions, it presents is the first study to show empirical evidence of peak load pricing in airlines. (5) It controls for potential endogeneity of sales using dynamic panels. The first essay tests the empirical importance of theories that explain price dispersion under costly capacity and demand uncertainty. The essay calculates a measure of an Expected Load Factor, that is used to calibrate the distribution of demand uncertainty and to identify which flights are peak and which ones are off-peak. It shows that different prices can be explained by the different selling probabilities. The second essay is the first study to provide formal evidence of stochastic peak-load pricing in airlines. It shows that airlines learn about the demand and respond to early sales setting higher prices when expected demand is high and more likely to exceed capacity.

Escobari Urday, Diego Alfonso

2008-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

Energy Crossroads: Global Climate Change | Environmental Energy  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Global Climate Change Global Climate Change Suggest a Listing Best Global Warming Articles Global Warming Articles provides facts about the causes, effects and answers to global warming; the environment; energy conservation, climate change and more. Ecolytics As emissions requirements, climate change, financial markets, and risk management become increasingly interconnected, organizations are left with critical choices regarding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions management. Ecolytics(tm), a comprehensive web-based software tool, can help organizations in the navigation of this complex area by providing an effective cataloging, strategic planning, economic analysis, and risk management solution. Enviro$en$e Funded by the Environmental Protection Agency and the Strategic

158

On economic bicameralism  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

(cont.) for both economic profitability and democratic justice, is explored after the roots of the idea of economic bicameralism in socio-economic history and existing socio-economic institutions (such as Works Councils) ...

Ferreras, Isabelle, 1975-

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

159

Global emissions inventories  

SciTech Connect

Atmospheric chemistry determines the concentrations of most of the important greenhouse gases except for carbon dioxide. The rate of removal of the greenhouse gases from the atmosphere is also controlled by atmospheric chemistry. The indirect effects of chemical forcing resulting from the chemical interactions of other species can also affect the concentrations of radiatively important gases such as ozone. In order to establish the contribution of any possible climatic change attributable to individual greenhouse gases, spatially and temporally resolved estimates of their emissions need to be established. Unfortunately, for most of the radiatively important species the global magnitudes of their individual fluxes are not known to better than a factor of two and their spatial distributions are even more poorly characterized. Efforts to estimate future projections of potential impacts and to monitor international agreements will require continued research to narrow the uncertainties of magnitude and geographical distribution of emissions.

Dignon, J.

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

PDF uncertainties at large x and gauge boson production  

SciTech Connect

I discuss how global QCD fits of parton distribution functions can make the somewhat separated fields of high-energy particle physics and lower energy hadronic and nuclear physics interact to the benefit of both. In particular, I will argue that large rapidity gauge boson production at the Tevatron and the LHC has the highest short-term potential to constrain the theoretical nuclear corrections to DIS data on deuteron targets necessary for up/down flavor separation. This in turn can considerably reduce the PDF uncertainty on cross section calculations of heavy mass particles such as W' and Z' bosons.

Accardi, Alberto [Hampton U., JLAB

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Joint Global Change Research Institute | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Global Change Research Institute Global Change Research Institute Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Joint Global Change Research Institute Name Joint Global Change Research Institute Agency/Company /Organization Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Sector Energy, Land Focus Area Energy Efficiency Topics Policies/deployment programs, Resource assessment, Pathways analysis Website http://www.globalchange.umd.ed References Global Change Research Institute [1] Abstract The Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) houses an interdisciplinary team dedicated to understanding the problems of global climate change and their potential solutions. Joint Institute staff bring decades of experience and expertise to bear in science, technology, economics, and policy. "The Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) houses an

162

Mapping environments at risk under different global climate change scenarios  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

ON Significant disruptions to natural ecosystems are widely expected as a result of global climate change. There is uncertainty about the pace of this change because that depends on future greenhouse gas emissions and complex no readily predictable community structure or composition. We introduce a novel approach to mapping global

Hoffman, Forrest M.

163

Structuring energy supply and demand networks in a general equilibrium model to simulate global warming control strategies  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Global warming control strategies which mandate stringent caps on emissions of greenhouse forcing gases can substantially alter a country's demand, production, and imports of energy products. Although there is a large degree of uncertainty when attempting to estimate the potential impact of these strategies, insights into the problem can be acquired through computer model simulations. This paper presents one method of structuring a general equilibrium model, the ENergy and Power Evaluation Program/Global Climate Change (ENPEP/GCC), to simulate changes in a country's energy supply and demand balance in response to global warming control strategies. The equilibrium model presented in this study is based on the principle of decomposition, whereby a large complex problem is divided into a number of smaller submodules. Submodules simulate energy activities and conversion processes such as electricity production. These submodules are linked together to form an energy supply and demand network. Linkages identify energy and fuel flows among various activities. Since global warming control strategies can have wide reaching effects, a complex network was constructed. The network represents all energy production, conversion, transportation, distribution, and utilization activities. The structure of the network depicts interdependencies within and across economic sectors and was constructed such that energy prices and demand responses can be simulated. Global warming control alternatives represented in the network include: (1) conservation measures through increased efficiency; and (2) substitution of fuels that have high greenhouse gas emission rates with fuels that have lower emission rates. 6 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs.

Hamilton, S.; Veselka, T.D.; Cirillo, R.R.

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

Holographic Indeterminacy, Uncertainty and Noise  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A theory is developed to describe the nonlocal effect of spacetime quantization on position measurements transverse to macroscopic separations. Spacetime quantum states close to a classical null trajectory are approximated by plane wavefunctions of Planck wavelength (l_P) reference beams; these are used to connect transverse position operators at macroscopically separated events. Transverse positions of events with null spacetime separation, but separated by macroscopic spatial distance $L$, are shown to be quantum conjugate observables, leading to holographic indeterminacy and a new uncertainty principle, a lower bound on the standard deviation of relative transverse position \\Delta x_\\perp > \\sqrt{l_PL} or angular orientation \\Delta\\theta > \\sqrt{l_P/L}. The resulting limit on the number of independent degrees of freedom is shown to agree quantitatively with holographic covariant entropy bounds derived from black hole physics and string theory. The theory predicts a universal ``holographic noise'' of spacet...

Hogan, Craig J

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

165

Uncertainties of estimates of inertio-gravity energy in the atmosphere  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Uncertainties of estimates of inertio-gravity energy in the atmosphere N. Zagar, J. Tribbia, J percentage of energy contained in balanced (Rossby) and inertio- gravity (IG) motions. Estimate energy)analysis Unclear how large part of the global atmospheric energetics pertains to the divergent motion i.e. inertio-gravity

Zagar, Nedjeljka

166

Error Uncertainty Analysis of GPCP Monthly Rainfall Products: A Data-Based Simulation Study  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper focuses on estimating the error uncertainty of the monthly 2.5° × 2.5° rainfall products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) using rain gauge observations. Two kinds of GPCP products are evaluated: the satellite-only ...

Mekonnen Gebremichael; Witold F. Krajewski; Mark Morrissey; Darin Langerud; George J. Huffman; Robert Adler

2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

Modelling of the Uncertainty of Nuclear Fuel Thermal Behaviour Using the URANIE Framework  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In the global framework of nuclear fuel behaviour simulation, the response of the models describing the physical phenomena occurring during the irradiation in reactor is mainly conditioned by the confidence in the calculated temperature of the fuel. ... Keywords: uncertainty, thermal behaviour, nuclear fuel, URANIE

Antoine Boulore; Christine Struzik; Fabrice Gaudier

2009-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

168

Impact of risk and uncertainty on sustainable development of Kolubara lignite basin  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The paper analyzes the various risks and uncertainties and their possible impact on the future development of the Kolubara lignite basin area (Belgrade metropolitan region). What has been examined are the risks caused by the global financial crisis to ... Keywords: energy policy, lignite coal basin, privatisation, risks, sustainable development, uncertain

Slavka Zekovic; Miodrag Vujosevic

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

ARM - PI Product - Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

ProductsDirect Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty ProductsDirect Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty Site(s) NSA SGP TWP General Description Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in

170

A flexible numerical approach for quantification of epistemic uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In the field of uncertainty quantification (UQ), epistemic uncertainty often refers to the kind of uncertainty whose complete probabilistic description is not available, largely due to our lack of knowledge about the uncertainty. Quantification of the ... Keywords: Encapsulation problem, Epistemic uncertainty, Generalized polynomial chaos, Uncertainty quantification

Xiaoxiao Chen; Eun-Jae Park; Dongbin Xiu

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

Joint quantum measurements with minimum uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Quantum physics constrains the accuracy of joint measurements of incompatible observables. Here we test tight measurement-uncertainty relations using single photons. We implement two independent, idealized uncertainty-estimation methods, the 3-state method and the weak-measurement method, and adapt them to realistic experimental conditions. Exceptional quantum state fidelities of up to 0.99998(6) allow us to verge upon the fundamental limits of measurement uncertainty.

Martin Ringbauer; Devon N. Biggerstaff; Matthew A. Broome; Alessandro Fedrizzi; Cyril Branciard; Andrew G. White

2013-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

172

Coke gasification costs, economics, and commercial applications  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The disposition of petroleum coke remains a problem for modern high conversion refineries. Market uncertainty and the price for coke can prevent the implementation of otherwise attractive projects. The commercially proven Texaco Gasification Process remains an excellent option for clean, cost effective coke disposition as demonstrated by the new coke gasification units coming on-line and under design. Previous papers, have discussed the coke market and general economics of coke gasification. This paper updates the current market situation and economics, and provide more details on cost and performance based on recent studies for commercial plants.

Jahnke, F.C.; Falsetti, J.S.; Wilson, R.F. [Texaco, Inc., White Plains, NY (United States)

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

Dynamic Linear Production Games under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Oct 2, 2013 ... Abstract: In situations where uncertain costs are shared over time, static ... under uncertainty, generalizing classical linear production games to ...

174

Long Term Power Generation Planning Under Uncertainty.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Generation expansion planning concerns investment and operation decisions for different types of power plants over a multi-decade horizon under various uncertainties. The goal of this… (more)

Jin, Shan

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

175

The impact of uncertainty and risk measures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

peak, and finds that this nonlinear transformation of the oiland oil price growth rates. As seen in the above illustration, uncertainty is at its peak

Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

176

Essays in inventory decisions under uncertainty .  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Uncertainty is a norm in business decisions. In this research, we focus on the inventory decisions for companies with uncertain customer demands. We first investigate… (more)

Manikas, Andrew Steven

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

177

Design Feasibility Analysis and Optimization under Uncertainty...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Feasibility Analysis and Optimization under Uncertainty - A Bayesian Optimal Decision Framework Speaker(s): Jose M. Ortega Date: October 7, 2003 - 12:00pm Location: Bldg. 90...

178

A Partial Order on Uncertainty and Information  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Information and uncertainty are closely related and extensively studied concepts in a number of scientific disciplines such as communication theory, probability theory, and statistics. Increasing the information arguably reduces the uncertainty on a given random subject. Consider the uncertainty measure as the variance of a random variable. Given the information that its outcome is in an interval, the uncertainty is expected to reduce when the interval shrinks. This proposition is not generally true. In this paper, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for this proposition when the random variable is absolutely continuous or integer valued. We also give a similar result on Shannon information.

Chen, Jiahua

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

179

High-Dose Dosimetry Uncertainty Tables  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... 4.0. Alanine Transfer - E-Beam, Uncertainty Source, Type A (%), Type B (%). ... Calibration Curve, 0.50, 0.10. Electron Energy Dependence, 0.10. ...

2013-04-02T23:59:59.000Z

180

THE GLOBAL NUCLEAR ENERGY PARTNERSHIP:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

GLOBAL NUCLEAR ENERGY PARTNERSHIP: GLOBAL NUCLEAR ENERGY PARTNERSHIP: Greater Energy Security in a Cleaner, Safer World The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) is a comprehensive strategy to increase U.S. and global energy security, encourage clean development around the world, reduce the risk of nuclear proliferation, and improve the environment. A plentiful, reliable supply of energy is the cornerstone of sustained economic growth and prosperity. Nuclear power is the only proven technology that can provide abundant supplies of base load electricity reliably and without air pollution or emissions of greenhouse gasses. In order to help meet growing demand for energy at home and encourage the growth of prosperity around the globe, GNEP provides for the safe, extensive expansion of clean nuclear power.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Economic potential of inertial fusion  

SciTech Connect

Beyond the achievement of scientific feasibility, the key question for fusion energy is: does it have the economic potential to be significantly cheaper than fission and coal energy. If fusion has this high economic potential then there are compelling commercial and geopolitical incentives to accelerate the pace of the fusion program in the near term, and to install a global fusion energy system in the long term. Without this high economic potential, fusion's success depends on the failure of all alternatives, and there is no real incentive to accelerate the program. If my conjectures on the economic potential of inertial fusion are approximately correct, then inertial fusion energy's ultimate costs may be only half to two-thirds those of advanced fission and coal energy systems. Relative cost escalation is not assumed and could increase this advantage. Both magnetic and inertial approaches to fusion potentially have a two-fold economic advantage which derives from two fundamental properties: negligible fuel costs and high quality energy which makes possible more efficient generation of electricity. The wining approach to fusion may excel in three areas: electrical generating efficiency, minimum material costs, and adaptability to manufacture in automated factories. The winning approach must also rate highly in environmental potential, safety, availability factor, lifetime, small 0 and M costs, and no possibility of utility-disabling accidents.

Nuckolls, J.H.

1984-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

182

Management of Economic Processes and the Krasovskii Self-Organization Principle  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The paper is concerned with problems of management of economic processes characterized by difficulties in modeling the processes, uncertainty and dynamism of the environment, insufficient i>a priori observability and controllability, activeness ...

G. I. Vanyurikhin

2001-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

183

McKinsey Global Institute Big data: The next frontier  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

McKinsey Global Institute Big data: The next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity June 2011 #12;The McKinsey Global Institute The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), established in 1990, is McKinsey & Company's business and economics research arm. MGI's mission is to help leaders

Chen, Keh-Hsun

184

Holographic Indeterminacy, Uncertainty and Noise  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A theory is developed to describe the nonlocal effect of spacetime quantization on position measurements transverse to macroscopic separations. Spacetime quantum states close to a classical null trajectory are approximated by plane wavefunctions of Planck wavelength (l_P) reference beams; these are used to connect transverse position operators at macroscopically separated events. Transverse positions of events with null spacetime separation, but separated by macroscopic spatial distance $L$, are shown to be quantum conjugate observables, leading to holographic indeterminacy and a new uncertainty principle, a lower bound on the standard deviation of relative transverse position \\Delta x_\\perp > \\sqrt{l_PL} or angular orientation \\Delta\\theta > \\sqrt{l_P/L}. The resulting limit on the number of independent degrees of freedom is shown to agree quantitatively with holographic covariant entropy bounds derived from black hole physics and string theory. The theory predicts a universal ``holographic noise'' of spacetime, appearing as shear perturbations with a frequency-independent power spectral density S_H=l_P/c, or in equivalent metric perturbation units, h_{H,rms} \\sqrt{l_P/c} = 2.3 \\times 10^{-22} /\\sqrt{Hz}. If this description of holographic phenomenology is valid, interferometers with current technology could undertake direct quantitative studies of quantum gravity.

Craig J. Hogan

2007-09-05T23:59:59.000Z

185

Stochastic Variational Approach to Minimum Uncertainty States  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We introduce a new variational characterization of Gaussian diffusion processes as minimum uncertainty states. We then define a variational method constrained by kinematics of diffusions and Schr\\"{o}dinger dynamics to seek states of local minimum uncertainty for general non-harmonic potentials.

F. Illuminati; L. Viola

1995-01-11T23:59:59.000Z

186

Constructing Uncertainty Sets for Robust Linear Optimization  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, we propose a methodology for constructing uncertainty sets within the framework of robust optimization for linear optimization problems with uncertain parameters. Our approach relies on decision maker risk preferences. Specifically, we ... Keywords: coherent risk measures, distortion risk measures, robust optimization, uncertainty sets

Dimitris Bertsimas; David B. Brown

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

187

Uncertainty and Inference for Verification Measures  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

When a forecast is assessed, a single value for a verification measure is often quoted. This is of limited use, as it needs to be complemented by some idea of the uncertainty associated with the value. If this uncertainty can be quantified, it is ...

Ian T. Jolliffe

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

Economic analysis of fuel recycle  

SciTech Connect

Economic analysis was performed at KAERI with the assistance of US DOE to compare single reactor fuel cycle costs for a once-through option and a thermal recycle option to operate 1 GWe of a PWR plant for its lifetime. A reference fuel cycle cost was first calculated for each option with best estimated reference input data. Then a sensitivity analysis was performed changing each single value of such fuel cycle component costs as yellow cake price, enrichment charges, spent fuel storage cost, reprocessing cost, spent fuel disposal cost and reprocessing waste disposal cost. Savings due to thermal recycle in requirements of uranium, conversion, and enrichment were examined using formulas suggested by US DOE, while MOX fabrication penalty was accounted for. As a result of the reference fuel cycle cost analysis, it is calculated that the thermal recycle option is marginally more economical than the once-through option. The major factors affecting the comparative costs between thermal recycle and once-through are the costs of reprocessing, spent fuel storage and the difference between spent fuel disposal and reprocessing waste disposal. However, considering the uncertainty in these cost parameters there seems no immediate economic incentive for thermal recycle at the present time.

Juhn, P.E.

1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

189

Regional, Economic, and Environmental Implications of Dual Ethanol Technologies in Brazil  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Climate change, food security, and energy efficiency have become universal challenges for global economic development and environmental conservation that demand in-depth multidisciplinary research. Biofuels have emerged ...

Guerrero Compean, Roberto

190

Regional, economic, and environmental effects of traditional and biotechnologically enhanced ethanol production processes in Brazil  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Climate change, food security, and energy efficiency have become universal challenges for global economic development and environmental conservation that demand in-depth multidisciplinary research. Biofuels have emerged ...

Guerrero Compeán, Roberto

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

191

2012 CERTS R&M Peer Review - Transmission Investment Assessment Under Uncertainty - Ben Hobbs  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Transmission Transmission Investments Under Uncertainty & Transmission Investments Under Uncertainty & High Renewable Penetration: Representing Market Response using a Multi-stage Stochastic Model Approach with Recourse Model Approach with Recourse Benjamin F. Hobbs & Francisco Munoz Geography & Environmental Engineering Applied Math & Stat Geography & Environmental Engineering, Applied Math & Stat. Environment, Energy, Sustainability & Health Institute The Johns Hopkins University Richard E Schuler Richard E. Schuler Civil & Environmental Engineering, and Economics Cornell University August 2, 2011 Thanks to Saamrat Kasina and Harry van der Weijde for their assistance, and DOE CERTS for funding and DOE CERTS for funding O i Overview 1. The problem 1. The problem

192

A computational framework for uncertainty quantification and stochastic optimization in unit commitment with wind power generation.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We present a computational framework for integrating a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) model in stochastic unit commitment/economic dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the NWP model with an ensemble-based uncertainty quantification strategy implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework and validate the model using real wind-speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

Constantinescu, E. M; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M. (Mathematics and Computer Science); (Univ. of Chicago); (New York Univ.)

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

193

Uncertainty quantification approaches for advanced reactor analyses.  

SciTech Connect

The original approach to nuclear reactor design or safety analyses was to make very conservative modeling assumptions so as to ensure meeting the required safety margins. Traditional regulation, as established by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission required conservatisms which have subsequently been shown to be excessive. The commission has therefore moved away from excessively conservative evaluations and has determined best-estimate calculations to be an acceptable alternative to conservative models, provided the best-estimate results are accompanied by an uncertainty evaluation which can demonstrate that, when a set of analysis cases which statistically account for uncertainties of all types are generated, there is a 95% probability that at least 95% of the cases meet the safety margins. To date, nearly all published work addressing uncertainty evaluations of nuclear power plant calculations has focused on light water reactors and on large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) analyses. However, there is nothing in the uncertainty evaluation methodologies that is limited to a specific type of reactor or to specific types of plant scenarios. These same methodologies can be equally well applied to analyses for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and to liquid metal reactors, and they can be applied to steady-state calculations, operational transients, or severe accident scenarios. This report reviews and compares both statistical and deterministic uncertainty evaluation approaches. Recommendations are given for selection of an uncertainty methodology and for considerations to be factored into the process of evaluating uncertainties for advanced reactor best-estimate analyses.

Briggs, L. L.; Nuclear Engineering Division

2009-03-24T23:59:59.000Z

194

Wisconsin Manufacturing in the Global Economy: Its Past, Present and Future", Paper prepared for Wisconsin Economic Summit, Milwaukee, November/December 2000 (copies http://www.wisconsin.edu/summit/papers/general) Nikkei Weekly (19/10/98). “Bankruptc  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this paper, I briefly sketch how the New Economy forces of globalization and technology have affected Wisconsin’s manufacturing in the recent past, and I note the challenges these forces will pose in the future. The first step in recognizing these challenges is to understand if there really is such a thing as a New Economy, and if so, whether it has openings into which a set of Old Economy industries can be plugged in order to become a part of it. Specifically, can a state like Wisconsin use its traditional industries as stepping stones to join the New Economy and enjoy its benefits? My view is that it can because in many instances it is the Old Economy that provides the market for New Economy products. While Wisconsin will face difficulties in overcoming the challenges posed to it by the New Economy, Wisconsin is better positioned than many states to use its Old Economy industries to meet those challenges. I give most of my attention to the large and volatile machinery industry, which provides over half of Wisconsin’s exports and which is the sector most sensitive to export fluctuations and import competition. I describe what Southeast Wisconsin might be like if it remained the hub of some Old Economy machinery industries, but operated in the New Economy mode of entrepreneurial venture capitalism while developing new technologies for its traditional industries.

Donald A. Nichols

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

195

Statistical Uncertainty Analysis Applied to Criticality Calculation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, we present an uncertainty methodology based on a statistical approach, for assessing uncertainties in criticality prediction using monte carlo method due to uncertainties in the isotopic composition of the fuel. The methodology has been applied to criticality calculations with MCNP5 with additional stochastic input of the isotopic fuel composition. The stochastic input were generated using the latin hypercube sampling method based one the probability density function of each nuclide composition. The automatic passing of the stochastic input to the MCNP and the repeated criticality calculation is made possible by using a python script to link the MCNP and our latin hypercube sampling code.

Hartini, Entin; Andiwijayakusuma, Dinan; Susmikanti, Mike; Nursinta, A. W. [Centre for Nuclear Informatics Development, National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia (Indonesia)

2010-06-22T23:59:59.000Z

196

Nuclear data uncertainty propagation in a lattice physics code using stochastic sampling  

SciTech Connect

A methodology is presented for 'black box' nuclear data uncertainty propagation in a lattice physics code using stochastic sampling. The methodology has 4 components: i) processing nuclear data variance/covariance matrices including converting the native group structure to a group structure 'compatible' with the lattice physics code, ii) generating (relative) random samples of nuclear data, iii) perturbing the lattice physics code nuclear data according to the random samples, and iv) analyzing the distribution of outputs to estimate the uncertainty. The scheme is described as implemented at PSI, in a modified version of the lattice physics code CASMO-5M, including all relevant practical details. Uncertainty results are presented for a BWR pin-cell at hot zero power conditions and a PWR assembly at hot full power conditions with depletion. Results are presented for uncertainties in eigenvalue, 1-group microscopic cross sections, 2-group macroscopic cross sections, and isotopics. Interesting behavior is observed with burnup, including a minimum uncertainty due to the presence of fertile U-238 and a global effect described as 'synergy', observed when comparing the uncertainty resulting from simultaneous and one-at-a-time variations of nuclear data. (authors)

Wieselquist, W.; Vasiliev, A.; Ferroukhi, H. [Paul Scherrer Institut, 5232 Villigen (Switzerland)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

Financial and Economic Terms  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This publication lists and defines many financial and economic terms with which producers should be familiar.

McCorkle, Dean; Klinefelter, Danny A.

2008-12-05T23:59:59.000Z

198

Nuclear Data Uncertainties in 2004: A Perspective  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Interest in nuclear data uncertainties is growing robustly after having languished for several years. Renewed attention to this topic is being motivated by the practical need for assuring that nuclear systems will be safe

Donald L. Smith

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

MOS Uncertainty Estimates in an Ensemble Framework  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

It is being increasingly recognized that the uncertainty in weather forecasts should be quantified and furnished to users along with the single-value forecasts usually provided. Probabilistic forecasts of “events” have been made in special cases; ...

Bob Glahn; Matthew Peroutka; Jerry Wiedenfeld; John Wagner; Greg Zylstra; Bryan Schuknecht; Bryan Jackson

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

Classification of Unseen Examples under Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Very frequently machine learning from real-life data is affected by uncertainty. There are three main reasons for imperfection in data: incompleteness, imprecision (also called vagueness), and errors. In this paper the main emphasis is on classification ...

Jerzy W. Grzymala-Busse

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Key results of a comprehensive survey of U.S. National Weather Service operational forecast managers concerning the assessment and communication of forecast uncertainty are presented and discussed. The survey results revealed that forecasters are ...

David R. Novak; David R. Bright; Michael J. Brennan

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

Parameterizing Mesoscale Wind Uncertainty for Dispersion Modeling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A parameterization of numerical weather prediction uncertainty is presented for use by atmospheric transport and dispersion models. The theoretical development applies Taylor dispersion concepts to diagnose dispersion metrics from numerical wind ...

Leonard J. Peltier; Sue Ellen Haupt; John C. Wyngaard; David R. Stauffer; Aijun Deng; Jared A. Lee; Kerrie J. Long; Andrew J. Annunzio

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

Uncertainty in climate change policy analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Achieving agreement about whether and how to control greenhouse gas emissions would be difficult enough even if the consequences were fully known. Unfortunately, choices must be made in the face of great uncertainty, about ...

Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G.

204

Multifidelity methods for multidisciplinary design under uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

For computational design and analysis tasks, scientists and engineers often have available many different simulation models. The output of each model has an associated uncertainty that is a result of the modeling process. ...

Christensen, Daniel Erik

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

205

Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

How to understand and reason about uncertainty in climate science is a topic that is receiving increasing attention in both the scientific and philosophical literature. This paper provides a perspective on exploring ways to understand, assess, and reason ...

J. A. Curry; P. J. Webster

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

0 1 August 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 August 10, 2010 Release WTI crude oil spot prices averaged 76.32 per barrel in July...

207

Quantifying reliability uncertainty : a proof of concept.  

SciTech Connect

This paper develops Classical and Bayesian methods for quantifying the uncertainty in reliability for a system of mixed series and parallel components for which both go/no-go and variables data are available. Classical methods focus on uncertainty due to sampling error. Bayesian methods can explore both sampling error and other knowledge-based uncertainties. To date, the reliability community has focused on qualitative statements about uncertainty because there was no consensus on how to quantify them. This paper provides a proof of concept that workable, meaningful quantification methods can be constructed. In addition, the application of the methods demonstrated that the results from the two fundamentally different approaches can be quite comparable. In both approaches, results are sensitive to the details of how one handles components for which no failures have been seen in relatively few tests.

Diegert, Kathleen V.; Dvorack, Michael A.; Ringland, James T.; Mundt, Michael Joseph; Huzurbazar, Aparna (Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM); Lorio, John F.; Fatherley, Quinn (Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM); Anderson-Cook, Christine (Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM); Wilson, Alyson G. (Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM); Zurn, Rena M.

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

208

Meteorological Data Needs for Modeling Air Quality Uncertainties  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A probabilistic framework for incorporating uncertainty in air quality models is described. The quantitative dependence of the uncertainty in calculated air quality concentrations on the uncertainty in the input meteorological data is illustrated ...

W. S. Lewellen; R. I. Sykes

1989-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

209

Environmental issues: still clouded in uncertainty  

SciTech Connect

The key environmental obstacle affecting oil shale development is uncertainty. Little is known with much degree of certainty about potential environmental consequences of oil shale mining or processing. Primary uncertainties include: environmental compliance costs and their effects on investment decisions/ reliability and acceptability of anticipated pollution control technologies/ and confusing, time consuming environmental regulatory framework. The availability of water supplies, protection of air and water quality, impacts on boom-towns, and spent shale disposal are other related issues. (2 photos)

Stanwood, R.M.

1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

210

Microsoft Word - feb10-Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

February 2010 February 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 February 12, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $78.33 per barrel in January 2010, almost $4 per barrel higher than the prior month's average and matching the $78-per-barrel forecast in last month's Outlook. The WTI spot price peaked at $83.12 on January 6 and then fell to $72.85 on January 29 as the weather turned warm and concerns about the strength of world economic recovery increased. EIA forecasts that WTI spot prices will remain near current levels over the next few months, averaging $76 per barrel in February and March, before rising to about $82 per barrel in the late

211

California Winter Precipitation Change under Global Warming in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Ensemble  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Projections of possible precipitation change in California under global warming have been subject to considerable uncertainty because California lies between the region anticipated to undergo increases in precipitation at mid-to-high latitudes and ...

J. David Neelin; Baird Langenbrunner; Joyce E. Meyerson; Alex Hall; Neil Berg

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

Creating ladders out of chains : China's technological development in a world of global production  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

With the advent of economic globalization, the terms of debate over the political and social conditions necessary to foster development in the Global South have shifted. Examining technological development, one important ...

Fuller, Douglas Brian

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

The spectre of uncertainty in communicating technological risk  

SciTech Connect

The literature does not clearly describe the potential moral and ethical conflicts that can exist between technology sponsors and the technical communicators whose job it is to present potentially risky technology to the non-technical people most likely to be imperiled by such risk. Equally important, the literature does not address the issue of uncertainty -- not the uncertainty likely to be experienced by the community at risk, but the unreliable processes and methodologies used by technology sponsors to define, quantify, and develop strategies to mitigate technological risks. In this paper, the author goes beyond a description of risk communication, the nature of the generally predictable interaction between technology advocates and non-technically trained individuals, and current trends in the field. Although that kind of information is critical to the success of any risk communication activity, and he has included it when necessary to provide background and perspective, without knowing how and why risk assessment is done, it has limited practical applicability outside the sterile, value-free vacuum in which it is usually framed. Technical communicators, particularly those responsible for communicating potential technological risk, must also understand the social, political, economic, statistical, and ethical issues they will invariably encounter.

Broesius, M.T.

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

Uncertainty Study of INEEL EST Laboratory Battery Testing Systems  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

INEELEXT-01-00505 December 2001 Uncertainty Study of INEEL EST Laboratory Battery Testing Systems Volume 1 Background and Derivation of Uncertainty Relationships John L. Morrison...

215

Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid Under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

operating strategy of the microgrid is not known in advance,Generation Investment by a Microgrid Under Uncertainty AfzalGeneration Investment by a Microgrid Under Uncertainty Afzal

Siddiqui, Afzal; Marnay, Chris

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

216

Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Effects of carbon tax on microgrid combined heat and powerGeneration Investment by a Microgrid under Uncertainty AfzalGeneration Investment by a Microgrid under Uncertainty Afzal

Siddiqui, Afzal

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Improvements to Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This project addresses three important gaps in existing evaluated nuclear data libraries that represent a significant hindrance against highly advanced modeling and simulation capabilities for the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI). This project will: Develop advanced theoretical tools to compute prompt fission neutrons and gamma-ray characteristics well beyond average spectra and multiplicity, and produce new evaluated files of U and Pu isotopes, along with some minor actinides; Perform state-of-the-art fission cross-section modeling and calculations using global and microscopic model input parameters, leading to truly predictive fission cross-sections capabilities. Consistent calculations for a suite of Pu isotopes will be performed; Implement innovative data assimilation tools, which will reflect the nuclear data evaluation process much more accurately, and lead to a new generation of uncertainty quantification files. New covariance matrices will be obtained for Pu isotopes and compared to existing ones. The deployment of a fleet of safe and efficient advanced reactors that minimize radiotoxic waste and are proliferation-resistant is a clear and ambitious goal of AFCI. While in the past the design, construction and operation of a reactor were supported through empirical trials, this new phase in nuclear energy production is expected to rely heavily on advanced modeling and simulation capabilities. To be truly successful, a program for advanced simulations of innovative reactors will have to develop advanced multi-physics capabilities, to be run on massively parallel super- computers, and to incorporate adequate and precise underlying physics. And all these areas have to be developed simultaneously to achieve those ambitious goals. Of particular interest are reliable fission cross-section uncertainty estimates (including important correlations) and evaluations of prompt fission neutrons and gamma-ray spectra and uncertainties.

Danon, Yaron; Nazarewicz, Witold; Talou, Patrick

2013-02-18T23:59:59.000Z

218

NREL GIS Data: Global Offshore Wind GIS data for offshore wind...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Global Offshore Wind GIS data for offshore wind speed (meterssecond).  Specified to Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ).

Wind resource based on NOAA blended sea winds and...

219

Estimating uncertainty of inference for validation  

SciTech Connect

We present a validation process based upon the concept that validation is an inference-making activity. This has always been true, but the association has not been as important before as it is now. Previously, theory had been confirmed by more data, and predictions were possible based on data. The process today is to infer from theory to code and from code to prediction, making the role of prediction somewhat automatic, and a machine function. Validation is defined as determining the degree to which a model and code is an accurate representation of experimental test data. Imbedded in validation is the intention to use the computer code to predict. To predict is to accept the conclusion that an observable final state will manifest; therefore, prediction is an inference whose goodness relies on the validity of the code. Quantifying the uncertainty of a prediction amounts to quantifying the uncertainty of validation, and this involves the characterization of uncertainties inherent in theory/models/codes and the corresponding data. An introduction to inference making and its associated uncertainty is provided as a foundation for the validation problem. A mathematical construction for estimating the uncertainty in the validation inference is then presented, including a possibility distribution constructed to represent the inference uncertainty for validation under uncertainty. The estimation of inference uncertainty for validation is illustrated using data and calculations from Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). The ICF measurements of neutron yield and ion temperature were obtained for direct-drive inertial fusion capsules at the Omega laser facility. The glass capsules, containing the fusion gas, were systematically selected with the intent of establishing a reproducible baseline of high-yield 10{sup 13}-10{sup 14} neutron output. The deuterium-tritium ratio in these experiments was varied to study its influence upon yield. This paper on validation inference is the first in a series of inference uncertainty estimations. While the methods demonstrated are primarily statistical, these do not preclude the use of nonprobabilistic methods for uncertainty characterization. The methods presented permit accurate determinations for validation and eventual prediction. It is a goal that these methods establish a standard against which best practice may evolve for determining degree of validation.

Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

2010-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

220

Hybrid modeling to predict the economic feasibility of mining undiscovered porphyry copper deposits  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Few studies attempt to model the economic feasibility of mining undiscovered mineral resources given the sparseness of data; and the coupled, nonlinear, spatial, and temporal relationships among variables. In this study, a type of unsupervised artificial ... Keywords: Cluster analysis, Economic filter, Mineral resource assessment, Multivariate linear regression, Porphyry copper, Self-organizing map, Stochastic modeling, Uncertainty

Michael J. Friedel

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Using a Bayesian framework and global sensitivity analysis to identify strengths and weaknesses of two process-based models differing in representation of autotrophic respiration  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Process-based models are powerful tools for sustainable and adaptive forest management. Bayesian statistics and global sensitivity analysis allow to reduce uncertainties in parameters and outputs, and they provide better insight of model behaviour. In ... Keywords: 3-PG, Bayesian calibration, Bayesian model comparison, Carbon cycle, Global sensitivity analysis, Morris screening, Net primary production, Respiration, Uncertainty analysis

F. Minunno; M. Van Oijen; D. R. Cameron; S. Cerasoli; J. S. Pereira; M. Tomé

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

222

Using Information on Uncertainty to Improve Environmental Fate Modeling: A Case Study on DDT  

SciTech Connect

Present and future concentrations of DDT in the environment are calculated with the global multi-media model CliMoChem. Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess the importance of uncertainties in substance property data, emission rates, and environmental parameters for model results. Uncertainties in the model results, expressed as 95percent confidence intervals of DDT concentrations in various environmental media, in different geographical locations, and at different points in time are typically between one and two orders of magnitude. An analysis of rank correlations between model inputs and predicted DDT concentrations indicates that emission estimates and degradation rate constants, in particular in the atmosphere, are the most influential model inputs. For DDT levels in the Arctic, temperature dependencies of substance properties are also influential parameters. A Bayesian Monte Carlo approach is used to update uncertain model inputs based on measurements of DDT in the field. The updating procedure suggests a lower value for half-life in air and a reduced range of uncertainty for KOW of DDT. As could be expected, the Bayesian updating yields model results that are closer to observations, and model uncertainties have decreased. The combined sensitivity analysis and Bayesian Monte Carlo approach provide new insight into important processes that govern the global fate and persistence of DDT in the environment.

Schenker, Urs; Scheringer, Martin; Sohn, Michael D.; Maddalena, Randy L.; McKone, Thomas E.; Hungerbuhler, Konrad

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

ULCOS scenarios and economic modeling  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Modeling activities and scenario building are at the heart of the economic analysis delivered by the ULCOS program. Two main objectives were followed in the framework of SP9. First the modeling team had to provide a set of coherent energy economic scenarios using POLES model. Second, the economic conditions for the emergence of the ULCOS technologies were analyzed. ULCOS contributes to the elaboration of contrasted scenarios that the steel industry could face in the long term. To aim at these objectives specific tools have been used: POLES model for the global energy system modeling and ISIM model for the steel sector based prospective ([1] Hidalgo, 2003). The most promising steel production technologies identified in ULCOS Phase 1 have been introduced into ISIM as generic technologies. ISIM was then integrated as a module into POLES modeling system. The main model outputs are the energy prices and mixes and the steel sector balances with a focus on the technology mix. Actually the climate policy scenarios developped in project allow making recommendations to the steel industry in terms of sustainable development but also in terms of business strategy.

Elie Bellevrat

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

Simulation demonstrates economics of minnelusa polymer floods  

SciTech Connect

Defining some variables with a probability distribution can establish more precisely the economic value of such projects as polymer flooding in the Minnelusa formation. An enhanced-oil-recovery (EOR) project often presents a difficult investment decision. The substantial risks and performance uncertainties must be carefully weighted against the investment costs. a Monte Carlo simulation model was used to characterize the incremental economics of a Minnelusa polymer flood. The principal questions addressed in this paper are: What is the likelihood of the EOR project being an economic success What is the expected economic benefit of the polymer flood With representative field parameters and price projections, the typical Minnelusa polymer flood was found to have a 93% chance of economic success. The expected monetary value (EMV) for the project is $1.6 million. This expected net gain results from the incremental cost of about $50,000 for additional surface equipment and about $480,000 for chemicals. Although each project must be evaluated on its own merits, these results present a strong case of considering polymer-augmented floods in the Minnelusa.

Hochanadel, S.M. (Tiorco Inc., Englewood, CO (US)); Schuyler, J.R.

1991-05-27T23:59:59.000Z

225

Report: Technical Uncertainty and Risk Reduction  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

TECHNICAL UNCERTAINTY AND RISK REDUCTION TECHNICAL UNCERTAINTY AND RISK REDUCTION Background In FY 2007 EMAB was tasked to assess EM's ability to reduce risk and technical uncertainty. Board members explored this topic throughout the year as a component of their focus on the previously discussed topic of Discretionary Budgeting. Discussion Understanding the risks and variability associated with EM's projects is a challenging task that has the potential to significantly impact the program's established baselines. According to budget personnel, EM has established a database of baseline variables and possibilities; however, this tool is project-specific and does not apply to the greater complex. The Board believes that EM could benefit from incorporating an additional and more comprehensive data point into the baseline development process that budgets

226

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Outlook Price Uncertainty-January 2010 Outlook Price Uncertainty-January 2010 1 January 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 January 12, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged $74.50 per barrel in December 2009, about $3.50 per barrel lower than the prior month's average. The WTI spot price fell from $78 to $70 during the first 2 weeks of December, but colder-than-normal weather and U.S. crude oil and product inventory draws that exceeded the December 5-year averages helped push it back up to $79 per barrel by the end of the month. EIA forecasts that WTI spot prices will weaken over

227

Evaluation of Uncertainties in Cost Estimations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper examines uncertainty in several cost estimation methods for large infrastructure projects. In particular the impact and consequences of different unexpected events that have occurred during the construction of various tunnels and aqueducts will be treated. Combined with the cost estimation development, several hypotheses concerning uncertainty prediction and correlation will be verified. First, the basis for researching this topic is described and the methods of estimation and uncertainty prediction are presented. Based upon the results of an extensive investigation into the occurrence of unexpected events, several hypotheses concerning unexpected events and correlations are verified. Other related topics that have been researched are also briefly mentioned. Finally the findings are contemplated in a larger context based upon which the conclusions are presented

Meint Boschloo; Meint Boschloo; Pieter Van Gelder; Han Vrijling; Han Vrijling

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

228

Quantifying uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management systems  

SciTech Connect

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management is significant. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Model, scenario and parameter uncertainties contribute. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Sequential procedure for quantifying uncertainty is proposed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Application of procedure is illustrated by a case-study. - Abstract: Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties.

Clavreul, Julie, E-mail: julc@env.dtu.dk [Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby (Denmark); Guyonnet, Dominique [BRGM, ENAG BRGM-School, BP 6009, 3 Avenue C. Guillemin, 45060 Orleans Cedex (France); Christensen, Thomas H. [Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby (Denmark)

2012-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

229

Generalized Uncertainty Principle and Dark Matter  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

There have been proposals that primordial black hole remnants (BHRs) are the dark matter, but the idea is somewhat vague. Recently we argued that the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP) may prevent black holes from evaporating completely, in a similar way that the standard uncertainty principle prevents the hydrogen atom from collapsing. We further noted that the hybrid inflation model provides a plausible mechanism for production of large numbers of small black holes. Combining these we suggested that the dark matter might be composed of Planck-size BHRs. In this paper we briefly review these arguments, and discuss the reheating temperature as a result of black hole evaporation.

Chen, P

2004-01-13T23:59:59.000Z

230

Uncertainty in in-place filter test results  

SciTech Connect

Some benefits of accounting for uncertainty in in-place filter test results are explored. Information the test results provide relative to system performance acceptance limits is evaluated in terms of test result uncertainty. An expression for test result uncertainty is used to estimate uncertainty in in-place filter tests on an example air cleaning system. Modifications to the system test geometry are evaluated in terms of effects on test result uncertainty.

Scripsick, R.C.; Beckman, R.J.; Mokler, B.V.

1996-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

231

BridgeGreen : bridging the disconnect between design professionals and resources fro environmentally, socially, and economically responsive architecture  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Sustainable design, whether referred to as green, high performing, responsible, or environmentally, socially, and economically responsive architecture, is influencing the global building industry. Most major firms of ...

Elbaum, Meredith Sue, 1975-

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

232

Electricity economics: essays and case studies  

SciTech Connect

These studies deal with the economic theory and practice of pricing and investment in electricity supply. There are seven chapters on applications, five on principles, and the final four clear up some deficiencies in existing theory. The chapters following an introductory chapter are Economics, Finance, and Equity in Tariff Policy; Electricity Tariffs in Thailand; Electricity Tariffs in Tunisia; Electricity Tariffs in Sudan; An American Tariff Structure; Rural Electrification in Developing Countries; Electricity Development in Turkey: A Case Study Using Linear Programming; How to Study Tariffs; The Rate of Return on Projects--and Relations between Pricing and Investments; The Willingness-to-Pay Criterion; a Layman's Guide to Shadow Pricing; Investment Planning Models; Optimal Electricity Pricing Under Uncertainty; Cost Structure in Hydro and Hydro-Thermal Systems; Tariff Structures with Simple Metering; and A Note on Optimal Pricing and Indivisibilities. (MCW)

Turvey, R.; Anderson, D.

1977-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

233

Requirements Uncertainty in a Software Product Line  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A complex system's requirements almost always remain uncertain late into its software development. In gas turbine engine control systems at Rolls-Royce, for a traditional project (non-product line) typically 50% of requirements will change between Critical ... Keywords: Requirements, Uncertainty, Software Product Lines

Andy J. Nolan; Silvia Abrahao; Paul C. Clements; Andy Pickard

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

234

Uncertainty analysis of well test data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

During a well test a transient pressure response is created by a temporary change in production rate. The well response is usually monitored during a relatively short period of time, depending upon the test objectives. Reservoir properties are determined from well test data via an inverse problem approach. Uncertainty is inherent in any nonlinear inverse problem. Unfortunately, well test interpretation suffers particularly from a variety of uncertainties that, when combined, reduce the confidence that can be associated with the estimated reservoir properties. The specific factors that have been analyzed in this work are: 1. Pressure noise (random noise) 2. Pressure drift (systematic variation) 3. Rate history effects Our work is based on the analysis of the effects of random pressure noise, the drift error, and the rate history on the estimation of typical reservoir parameters for two common reservoir models: A vertical well with a constant wellbore storage and skin in a homogeneous reservoir. A vertical well with a finite conductivity vertical fracture including wellbore effects in a homogeneous reservoir. This work represents a sensitivity study of the impact of pressure and rate uncertainty on parameter estimation and the confidence intervals associated with these results. In this work we statistically analyze the calculated reservoir parameters to quantify the impact of pressure and rate uncertainty on them.

Merad, Mohamed Belgacem

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

Global sensitivity analysis of stochastic computer models with joint metamodels  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The global sensitivity analysis method used to quantify the influence of uncertain input variables on the variability in numerical model responses has already been applied to deterministic computer codes; deterministic means here that the same set of ... Keywords: Computer experiment, Gaussian process, Generalized additive model, Joint modeling, Sobol indices, Uncertainty

Amandine Marrel; Bertrand Iooss; Sébastien Veiga; Mathieu Ribatet

2012-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

236

What drives global ICT adoption? Analysis and research directions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Information and communication technology (ICT) adoption is increasing globally and offers unique opportunities for information systems (IS) and electronic commerce researchers to undertake research that will have an impact. The purpose of this article ... Keywords: Adoption, Behavioral explanations, Diffusion, Economic explanations, Global perspective, ICT, Policy issues, Technology adoption

David M. Weber; Robert J. Kauffman

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

237

Wanted: Global Clean Energy Partners | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Wanted: Global Clean Energy Partners Wanted: Global Clean Energy Partners Home > Groups > OpenEI Community Central Graham7781's picture Submitted by Graham7781(1992) Super contributor 24 February, 2010 - 13:51 imported OpenEI Global climate change. Global sustainability. Global economic development. There's no doubt about it-if the nations of the world are going to solve the most pressing environmental, energy, and economic problems, we must do it together. OpenEI's International Clean Energy Analysis gateway fosters this cooperation by providing global clean energy data, analytical tools, training, and other resources in a dynamic, interactive environment. As a collaborative initiative of the U.S. Department of Energy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and United Nations Industrial Development

238

Modeling the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Decisions made to address climate change must start with an understanding of the risk of an uncertain future to human systems, which in turn means understanding both the consequence as well as the probability of a climate induced impact occurring. In other words, addressing climate change is an exercise in risk-informed policy making, which implies that there is no single correct answer or even a way to be certain about a single answer; the uncertainty in future climate conditions will always be present and must be taken as a working-condition for decision making. In order to better understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions, this study estimates the impacts from responses to climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity by employing a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. Using the results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) as a proxy for climate uncertainty, changes in hydrology over the next 40 years were mapped and then modeled to determine the physical consequences on economic activity and to perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of the economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. The analysis determines industry-level effects, employment impacts at the state level, interstate population migration, consequences to personal income, and ramifications for the U.S. trade balance. The conclusions show that the average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs. Further analysis shows that an increase in uncertainty raises this risk. This paper will present the methodology behind the approach, a summary of the underlying models, as well as the path forward for improving the approach.

Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

239

Facing the Test of Global Financial and Economic Crisis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

wind-down’. Thus, the degree of European integration or co-Integration Advance EU-Wide Co-ordination of Growth Stimulation and of Stimuli Wind-

Deubner, Christian

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Suppose one were interested in forecasting output growth and inflation across a number of different countries; how would one go about it? What additional variables might help in such forecasting (the oil price comes to mind), and should one also consider... .2. Ideally evaluation is done with a separate sample, though that can often be prohibitively costly, one reason why techniques like cross-validation have considerable appeal. Essentially these first two stages can be considered as trading off bias (build...

Pesaran, M Hashem; Schuermann, Til; Smith, L Vanessa

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

of Mining and Energy Australia, Martin Ferguson, Minister for Resources and Energy Brazil, Edison Lobo, Minister of Mines and Energy Canada, Lisa Raitt, Minister of Natural...

242

Facing the Test of Global Financial and Economic Crisis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

EU and in the Euro area (Greece in the first three monthsthey could give a year ago. Greece is a case in point. Itssmall ones, Portugal and Greece. This lack of accepted and

Deubner, Christian

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES, VOL. 7, NO. 3, PAGES 557-597, SEPTEMBER 1993 GLOBAL ANALYSIS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

for the controls are derived from global gridded (løxl ø resolution) data basesof soil type, soil texture, NDVI uncertainty regarding the distribution and magnitude of the sourcesthemselves. For sometime it was thought #12 was combustion of fossil fuels, in particular, coalburning power plantsproducing electricity [Hao et al., 1987

Fridlind, Ann

244

MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the approach for this study for natural gas supply by creating a two-stage production process. In stage 1 global supplies of natural gas by EPPA region and uncertainty range. The mean global estimate of 16) is from 12,400 to 20,800 Tcf. The set of natural gas supply functions are based on estimates

245

Economic Development | ornl.gov  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Economic Development Carbon Fiber Cluster Strategy Additive Manufacturing Cluster Strategy Entrepreneurial Development Programs Oak Ridge Science and Technology Park Economic...

246

Economic Development and Pollutants.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

?? The purpose of this paper is to investigate the correlation of economic development and pollutants in Brazil from 1960 to 2008. This investigation is… (more)

Törnros, Sara

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

247

One: California Economic Outlook  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

THE CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: AN IMPROVED POWER SITUATIONwas sluggish. An improved outlook for consumer spending inforecast compared with the outlook of UCLA's Anderson

Lieser, Tom K

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

248

Uncertainty Quantification of Composite Laminate Damage with the Generalized Information Theory  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work presents a survey of five theories to assess the uncertainty of projectile impact induced damage on multi-layered carbon-epoxy composite plates. Because the types of uncertainty dealt with in this application are multiple (variability, ambiguity, and conflict) and because the data sets collected are sparse, characterizing the amount of delamination damage with probability theory alone is possible but incomplete. This motivates the exploration of methods contained within a broad Generalized Information Theory (GIT) that rely on less restrictive assumptions than probability theory. Probability, fuzzy sets, possibility, and imprecise probability (probability boxes (p-boxes) and Dempster-Shafer) are used to assess the uncertainty in composite plate damage. Furthermore, this work highlights the usefulness of each theory. The purpose of the study is not to compare directly the different GIT methods but to show that they can be deployed on a practical application and to compare the assumptions upon which these theories are based. The data sets consist of experimental measurements and finite element predictions of the amount of delamination and fiber splitting damage as multilayered composite plates are impacted by a projectile at various velocities. The physical experiments consist of using a gas gun to impact suspended plates with a projectile accelerated to prescribed velocities, then, taking ultrasound images of the resulting delamination. The nonlinear, multiple length-scale numerical simulations couple local crack propagation implemented through cohesive zone modeling to global stress-displacement finite element analysis. The assessment of damage uncertainty is performed in three steps by, first, considering the test data only; then, considering the simulation data only; finally, performing an assessment of total uncertainty where test and simulation data sets are combined. This study leads to practical recommendations for reducing the uncertainty and improving the prediction accuracy of the damage modeling and finite element simulation.

J. Lucero; F. Hemez; T. Ross; K.Kline; J.Hundhausen; T. Tippetts

2006-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

249

Estimation of methane and carbon dioxide surface fluxes using a 3-D global atmospheric chemical transport model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Methane (CH?) and carbon dioxide (CO?) are the two most radiatively important greenhouse gases attributable to human activity. Large uncertainties in their source and sink magnitudes currently exist. We estimate global ...

Chen, Yu-Han, 1973-

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

250

Cosmic global strings  

SciTech Connect

This paper discusses the following topics: Global Strings; The Gravitational field of a straight global string; How do global strings behave The axion cosmological energy density; Computer simulations of the motion and decay of global strings; and Electromagnetic radiation from the conversion of Nambu-Goldstone bosons in astrophysical magnetic fields.

Sikivie, P. (Florida Univ., Gainesville, FL (USA). Dept. of Physics)

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

251

Interpolation Uncertainties Across the ARM SGP Area  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Interpolation Uncertainties Across the ARM SGP Area Interpolation Uncertainties Across the ARM SGP Area J. E. Christy, C. N. Long, and T. R. Shippert Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland, Washington Interpolation Grids Across the SGP Network Area The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program operates a network of surface radiation measurement sites across north central Oklahoma and south central Kansas. This Southern Great Plains (SGP) network consists of 21 sites unevenly spaced from 95.5 to 99.5 degrees west longitude, and from 34.5 to 38.5 degrees north latitude. We use the technique outlined by Long and Ackerman (2000) and Long et al. (1999) to infer continuous estimates of clear-sky downwelling shortwave (SW) irradiance, SW cloud effect, and daylight fractional sky cover for each

252

Quantum Gravitational Uncertainty of Transverse Position  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

It is argued that holographic bounds on the information content of spacetime might be directly measurable. A new uncertainty principle is conjectured to arise from quantum indeterminacy of nearly flat spacetime: Angular orientations of null trajectories of spatial length L are uncertain, with standard deviation in each transverse direction \\Delta \\theta> \\sqrt{l_P/L}, where l_p denotes the Planck length. It is shown that this angular uncertainty corresponds to the information loss and nonlocality that occur if 3+1-D spacetime has a holographic dual description in terms of Planck-scale waves on a 2+1D screen with encoding close to the Planck diffraction limit, and agrees with covariant holographic entropy bounds on total number of degrees of freedom. The spectrum and spatial structure of predicted quantum-gravitational ``holographic noise'' are estimated to be directly measurable over a broad range of frequencies using interferometers with current technology.

Craig J. Hogan

2007-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

253

Uncertainty of the Solar Neutrino Energy Spectrum  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The solar neutrino spectrum measured by the Super-Kamiokande shows an excess in high energy bins, which may be explained by vacuum oscillation solution or $hep$ neutrino effect. Here we reconsider an uncertainty of the data caused by the tail of the energy resolution function. Events observed at energy higher than 13.5 MeV are induced by the tail of the resolution. At Super-Kamiokande precision level this uncertainty is no more than few percent within a Gaussian tail. But a power-law decay tail at 3 $\\sigma$ results considerable excesses in these bins, which may be another possible explanation of the anomaly in 708d(825d) data.

Q. Y. Liu

1999-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

254

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 July 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 July 7, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $75.34 per barrel in June 2010 ($1.60 per barrel above the prior month's average), close to the $76 per barrel projected in the forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $79 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $84 by the end of next year (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart). Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, as history has shown (Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty). WTI futures for September 2010 delivery for the

255

Economic Forecast Report Economic Outlook and Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

volatile prices such as food and energy, is even softer, averaging around 1% for the year. Inflation should in our last report, the rebound in economic activity has been weak and uninspiring with below-trend formation is far below desired level, the overall trend is positive. Despite these improve- ments, we fear

de Lijser, Peter

256

Efficient Global Optimization Under Conditions of Noise and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Incomplete convergence in numerical simulation such as computational physics simulations and/or Monte Carlo simulations can enter into the calculation of the objective function in an optimization problem, producing noise, bias, and topographical inaccuracy in the objective function. These affect accuracy and convergence rate in the optimization problem. This paper is concerned with global searching of a diverse parameter space, graduating to accelerated local convergence to a (hopefully) global optimum, in a framework that acknowledges convergence uncertainty and manages model resolution to efficiently reduce uncertainty in the final optimum. In its own right, the global-to-local optimization engine employed here (devised for noise tolerance) performs better than other classical and contemporary optimization approaches tried individually and in combination on the "industrial" test problem to be presented.

Uncertainty Multi-Model Multi-Grid; Vicente J. Romero

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

Renewable Energy Economic Development  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

: · Renewable energy / Smart grid · Electric/hybrid vehicles 38 Proprietary & Confidential Global utility ­ Who Are We? · Industry leader in planning, architecture, engineering, procurement, construction

258

Information-Disturbance theorem and Uncertainty Relation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

It has been shown that Information-Disturbance theorem can play an important role in security proof of quantum cryptography. The theorem is by itself interesting since it can be regarded as an information theoretic version of uncertainty principle. It, however, has been able to treat restricted situations. In this paper, the restriction on the source is abandoned, and a general information-disturbance theorem is obtained. The theorem relates information gain by Eve with information gain by Bob.

Takayuki Miyadera; Hideki Imai

2007-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

259

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

Integrated automotive exhaust engineering : uncertainty management  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The global automotive industry has entered a stagnating period. Automotive OEMs and their tier suppliers are struggling for business growth. One of the most important strategies is to improve the engineering efficiency in ...

Fang, Xitian, 1963-

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Infection processes on networks with structural uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Over the last ten years, the interest in network phenomena and the potential for a global pandemic have produced a tremendous volume of research exploring the consequences of human interaction patterns for disease propagation. ...

Zager, Laura (Laura A.)

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

Economic Value of Veterinary  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

laboratories such as TVMDL. Without TVMDL's services, Texas would experience both a health and a fiscal crisis Diagnostic Laboratory (TVMDL) works to protect animal and human health through diagnostic testing of samplesEconomic Value of Veterinary Diagnostics Public Investment in Animal Health Testing Yields Economic

263

Wind Economic Development (Postcard)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The U.S. Department of Energy's Wind Powering America initiative provides information on the economic development benefits of wind energy. This postcard is a marketing piece that stakeholders can provide to interested parties; it will guide them to the economic development benefits section on the Wind Powering America website.

Not Available

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

264

Evaluating Uncertainties in the Projection of Future Drought  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The uncertainty in the projection of future drought occurrence was explored for four different drought indices using two model ensembles. The first ensemble expresses uncertainty in the parameter space of the third Hadley Centre climate model, ...

Eleanor J. Burke; Simon J. Brown

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

Treatment of measurement uncertainties at the power burst facility  

SciTech Connect

The treatment of measurement uncertainty at the Power Burst Facility provides a means of improving data integrity as well as meeting standard practice reporting requirements. This is accomplished by performing the uncertainty analysis in two parts, test independent uncertainty analysis and test dependent uncertainty analysis. The test independent uncertainty analysis is performed on instrumentation used repeatedly from one test to the next, and does not have to be repeated for each test except for improved or new types of instruments. A test dependent uncertainty analysis is performed on each test based on the test independent uncertainties modified as required by test specifications, experiment fixture design, and historical performance of instruments on similar tests. The methodology for performing uncertainty analysis based on the National Bureau of Standards method is reviewed with examples applied to nuclear instrumentation.

Meyer, L.C.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

266

Group decision making under uncertainty Type="Italic ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

JEAN LAINI~., MICHEL LE BRETON AND ALAIN TRANNOY. GROUP DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY. A NOTE ON THE AGGREGA TION.

267

Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AS, Marnay, C. Distributed generation investment by aand Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertaintyand Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty ?

Siddiqui, Afzal

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

Making Life and Death Decisions in Conditions of Uncertainty ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Making Life and Death Decisions in Conditions of Uncertainty THE 2008 RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN WAR. Andrei Illarionov ...

2010-10-05T23:59:59.000Z

269

Uncertainty Budgets for SOP 5: 2013-06-19  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... DEVELOP an uncertainty budget based on concepts ... for participation using the Office of Weights and Measures Contact Management System. ...

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

Uncertainty Budgets for SOP 4: 2013-06-17  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... DEVELOP an uncertainty budget based on concepts ... for participation using the Office of Weights and Measures Contact Management System. ...

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

The NIST Reference on Constants, Units, and Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The NIST Reference on Constants, Units and Uncertainty, Information at the foundation of modern science and technology from the Physical ...

272

The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways  

SciTech Connect

A new set of socioeconomic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) are described that provide a set of global narratives and socio-economic pathways to pair with climate model scenarios developed using the new Representative Concentration Pathways.

Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Lempert, Rob; Moss, Richard H.; Wilbanks, Thomas

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

273

Assessing Fatigue and Ultimate Load Uncertainty in Floating Offshore Wind Turbines Due to Varying Simulation Length  

SciTech Connect

With the push towards siting wind turbines farther offshore due to higher wind quality and less visibility, floating offshore wind turbines, which can be located in deep water, are becoming an economically attractive option. The International Electrotechnical Commission's (IEC) 61400-3 design standard covers fixed-bottom offshore wind turbines, but there are a number of new research questions that need to be answered to modify these standards so that they are applicable to floating wind turbines. One issue is the appropriate simulation length needed for floating turbines. This paper will discuss the results from a study assessing the impact of simulation length on the ultimate and fatigue loads of the structure, and will address uncertainties associated with changing the simulation length for the analyzed floating platform. Recommendations of required simulation length based on load uncertainty will be made and compared to current simulation length requirements.

Stewart, G.; Lackner, M.; Haid, L.; Matha, D.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

274

Assessing Fatigue and Ultimate Load Uncertainty in Floating Offshore Wind Turbines Due to Varying Simulation Length  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

With the push towards siting wind turbines farther offshore due to higher wind quality and less visibility, floating offshore wind turbines, which can be located in deep water, are becoming an economically attractive option. The International Electrotechnical Commission's (IEC) 61400-3 design standard covers fixed-bottom offshore wind turbines, but there are a number of new research questions that need to be answered to modify these standards so that they are applicable to floating wind turbines. One issue is the appropriate simulation length needed for floating turbines. This paper will discuss the results from a study assessing the impact of simulation length on the ultimate and fatigue loads of the structure, and will address uncertainties associated with changing the simulation length for the analyzed floating platform. Recommendations of required simulation length based on load uncertainty will be made and compared to current simulation length requirements.

Stewart, G.; Lackner, M.; Haid, L.; Matha, D.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

275

State of the Science FACT SHEET Weather Forecast Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

State of the Science FACT SHEET Weather Forecast Uncertainty December, 2009 This document represents the state of the science of quantifying and communicating weather forecast uncertainty. Decisions can be improved by better understanding the uncertainties in the weather forecasts. NOAA seeks to help

276

Probabilistic surfaces: point based primitives to show surface uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Efficient and informative visualization of surfaces with uncertainties is an important topic with many applications in science and engineering. Examples include environmental pollution borderline identification, identification of the limits of an oil ... Keywords: points as display primitives, uncertainty, visualizing surface uncertainty

Gevorg Grigoryan; Penny Rheingans

2002-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

277

Visualization of gridded scalar data with uncertainty in geosciences  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Characterization of the earth's subsurface involves the construction of 3D models from sparse data and so leads to simulation results that involve some degree of uncertainty. This uncertainty is often neglected in the subsequent visualization, due to ... Keywords: 3D, Monte carlo simulation, Scalar fields, Uncertainty, Visualisation, Visualization

Björn Zehner; Norihiro Watanabe; Olaf Kolditz

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

278

Technology Transfer: Triggering New Global Markets and Job Growth |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Technology Transfer: Triggering New Global Markets and Job Growth Technology Transfer: Triggering New Global Markets and Job Growth Technology Transfer: Triggering New Global Markets and Job Growth September 20, 2011 - 11:33am Addthis The Global Positioning System (GPS) was initially a government technology developed to guide nuclear missiles, and is one of the many examples of the economic potential of successful technology transfer -- the now worldwide location technologies market is projected to grow to $75 billion by 2013. The Global Positioning System (GPS) was initially a government technology developed to guide nuclear missiles, and is one of the many examples of the economic potential of successful technology transfer -- the now worldwide location technologies market is projected to grow to $75 billion by 2013.

279

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

280

MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change The Economic Impacts of Climate Change Greenstone Report No. 131 January 2006 #12;The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is an organization for research, independent policy analysis, and public education in global environmental change

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to the economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Kelic, Andjelka; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

282

Penetrator reliability investigation and design exploration : from conventional design processes to innovative uncertainty-capturing algorithms.  

SciTech Connect

This project focused on research and algorithmic development in optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problems driven by earth penetrator (EP) designs. While taking into account uncertainty, we addressed three challenges in current simulation-based engineering design and analysis processes. The first challenge required leveraging small local samples, already constructed by optimization algorithms, to build effective surrogate models. We used Gaussian Process (GP) models to construct these surrogates. We developed two OUU algorithms using 'local' GPs (OUU-LGP) and one OUU algorithm using 'global' GPs (OUU-GGP) that appear competitive or better than current methods. The second challenge was to develop a methodical design process based on multi-resolution, multi-fidelity models. We developed a Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Auto-regressive process (MF-BAP). The third challenge involved the development of tools that are computational feasible and accessible. We created MATLAB{reg_sign} and initial DAKOTA implementations of our algorithms.

Martinez-Canales, Monica L.; Heaphy, Robert (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Gramacy, Robert B. (University of Cambridge); Taddy, Matt (University of California, Santa Cruz, CA); Chiesa, Michael L.; Thomas, Stephen W. (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Swiler, Laura Painton (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Hough, Patricia Diane; Lee, Herbert K. H. (University of California, Santa Cruz, CA); Trucano, Timothy Guy (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Gray, Genetha Anne

2006-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

283

Implementation of global energy sustainability  

SciTech Connect

The term energy sustainability emerged from the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio 1992, when Agenda 21 was formulated and the Global Energy Charter proclaimed. Emission reductions, total energy costing, improved energy efficiency, and sustainable energy systems are the four fundamental principles of the charter. These principles can be implemented in the proposed financial, legal, technical, and education framework. Much has been done in many countries toward the implementation of the Global Energy Charter, but progress has not been fast enough to ease the disastrous effects of the too many ill-conceived energy systems on the environment, climate, and health. Global warming is accelerating, and pollution is worsening, especially in developing countries with their hunger for energy to meet the needs of economic development. Asian cities are now beating all pollution records, and greenhouse gases are visibly changing the climate with rising sea levels, retracting glaciers, and record weather disasters. This article presents why and how energy investments and research money have to be rechanneled into sustainable energy, rather than into the business-as-usual of depleting, unsustainable energy concepts exceeding one trillion dollars per year. This largest of all investment sectors needs much more attention.

Grob, G.R. [CMDC, Zurich (Switzerland)

1998-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

Methodology for characterizing modeling and discretization uncertainties in computational simulation  

SciTech Connect

This research effort focuses on methodology for quantifying the effects of model uncertainty and discretization error on computational modeling and simulation. The work is directed towards developing methodologies which treat model form assumptions within an overall framework for uncertainty quantification, for the purpose of developing estimates of total prediction uncertainty. The present effort consists of work in three areas: framework development for sources of uncertainty and error in the modeling and simulation process which impact model structure; model uncertainty assessment and propagation through Bayesian inference methods; and discretization error estimation within the context of non-deterministic analysis.

ALVIN,KENNETH F.; OBERKAMPF,WILLIAM L.; RUTHERFORD,BRIAN M.; DIEGERT,KATHLEEN V.

2000-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

285

A Bayesian approach to simultaneously quantify assignments and linguistic uncertainty  

SciTech Connect

Subject matter expert assessments can include both assignment and linguistic uncertainty. This paper examines assessments containing linguistic uncertainty associated with a qualitative description of a specific state of interest and the assignment uncertainty associated with assigning a qualitative value to that state. A Bayesian approach is examined to simultaneously quantify both assignment and linguistic uncertainty in the posterior probability. The approach is applied to a simplified damage assessment model involving both assignment and linguistic uncertainty. The utility of the approach and the conditions under which the approach is feasible are examined and identified.

Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [BOOKER SCIENTIFIC FREDERICKSBURG; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

2010-10-07T23:59:59.000Z

286

PNNL Global Energy Technology Strategy Program | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Technology Strategy Program Technology Strategy Program Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Global Energy Technology Strategy Program Name Global Energy Technology Strategy Program Agency/Company /Organization Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Sector Energy Website http://www.pnl.gov/gtsp/ References Global Energy Technology Strategy Program [1] "Since its inception in 1998, the Global Energy Technology Strategy Program (GTSP) has been assessing the important roles that technology can play in effectively managing the long-term risks of climate change. This involves an integrated approach to fully exploring all aspects of climate change - including scientific, economic, regulatory, and social impacts - and then aligning new or existing technologies to mitigate negative consequences.[1]

287

The 7. global warming international conference and expo: Abstracts  

SciTech Connect

This conference was held April 1--3, 1996 in Vienna, Austria. The purpose of this conference was to provide a multidisciplinary forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on global warming. Topics of interest include the following: global and regional natural resource management; energy, transportation, minerals and natural resource management; industrial technology and greenhouse gas emission; strategies for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emission; greenhouse gas production/utilization and carbon budgets; strategies for promoting the understanding of global change; international policy strategy and economics; and global warming and public health. Individual papers have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases.

NONE

1996-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

288

Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. States.  

SciTech Connect

Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts from responses to climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-model ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.

Reinert, Rhonda K.; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Robinson, David B.; Backus, George A.; Fogelman, William; Cutler, Laura; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Finely, Ray; Siirola, John; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Mitchiner, John Lovorn; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton; Kelic, Andjelka; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Strickland, James Hassler; Weddington, Anna Neila; Warren, Drake E.; Taylor, Mark A.; Loose, Verne W.; Richards, Elizabeth H.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Horschel, Daniel S.; Vargas, Vanessa N.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Snyder, Lillian Annabelle; Stubblefield, William Anthony; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Reno, Marissa Devan; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Roach, Jesse Dillon; Baker, Arnold Barry; Adams, Brian M.

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-model ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Reinert, Rhonda K.; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

290

Risk communication: Uncertainties and the numbers game  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The science of risk assessment seeks to characterize the potential risk in situations that may pose hazards to human health or the environment. However, the conclusions reached by the scientists and engineers are not an end in themselves - they are passed on to the involved companies, government agencies, legislators, and the public. All interested parties must then decide what to do with the information. Risk communication is a type of technical communication that involves some unique challenges. This paper first defines the relationships between risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication and then explores two issues in risk communication: addressing uncertainty and putting risk number into perspective.

Ortigara, M. [ed.

1995-08-30T23:59:59.000Z

291

Air pollution uncertainty exists in radon measurements  

SciTech Connect

This report discusses radon which is a colorless, odorless gas formed by the decay of radium and uranium that has been shown to cause lung cancer. Progress has been made in ensuring the accuracy of home radon measurements. According to this report, however, radon measurements are uncertain because the ability of the devices that measure radon and the companies analyzing the devices' readings varies and homeowners may not be following EPA's recommended testing procedures. Several possible causes for the uncertainty in radon measurements are cited.

1989-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

Essays in financial economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis consists of three essays in financial economics. Chapter 1 is entitled "Inside Debt." Existing theories advocate the use of cash and equity in executive compensation. However, recent empirical studies have ...

Edmans, Alex

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

Displaying Economic Value  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The distinction between forecast quality and economic value in a cost–loss formulation is well known. Also well known is their complex relationship, even with some instances of a reversal between the two, where higher quality is associated with ...

Caren Marzban

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

294

PNNL: Economic Development Office  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

business looking for a door to the Laboratory? The Economic Development Office at PNNL is here to help you start, grow, or relocate your business. We help you tap into...

295

PART ONE: ECONOMIC REVIEW  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

I Policy Environment 1.1 During the year 1999-2000, the Indian economy exhibited a good degree of resilience. Economic growth continued to be in line with the trend in the post 1991 period, notwithstanding

unknown authors

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

Uncertainty Budget Analysis for Dimensional Inspection Processes (U)  

SciTech Connect

This paper is intended to provide guidance and describe how to prepare an uncertainty analysis of a dimensional inspection process through the utilization of an uncertainty budget analysis. The uncertainty analysis is stated in the same methodology as that of the ISO GUM standard for calibration and testing. There is a specific distinction between how Type A and Type B uncertainty analysis is used in a general and specific process. All theory and applications are utilized to represent both a generalized approach to estimating measurement uncertainty and how to report and present these estimations for dimensional measurements in a dimensional inspection process. The analysis of this uncertainty budget shows that a well-controlled dimensional inspection process produces a conservative process uncertainty, which can be attributed to the necessary assumptions in place for best possible results.

Valdez, Lucas M. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2012-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

297

Global climate change and international security  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

Rice, M.

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

298

Review: Globalization of Water  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Review: Globalization of Water: Sharing the Planet’sAshok K. Globalization of Water: Sharing the Planet’s140) liters of virtual water (p. 15). This is one of the

Tennant, Matthew Aaron

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

Disaggregating measurement uncertainty from population variability and Bayesian treatment of uncensored results  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In making low-level radioactivity measurements of populations, it is commonly observed that a substantial portion of net results are negative. Furthermore, the observed variance of the measurement results arises from a combination of measurement uncertainty and population variability. This paper presents a method for disaggregating measurement uncertainty from population variability to produce a probability density function (PDF) of possibly true results. To do this, simple, justifiable, and reasonable assumptions are made about the relationship of the measurements to the measurands (the 'true values'). The measurements are assumed to be unbiased, that is, that their average value is the average of the measurands. Using traditional estimates of each measurement's uncertainty to disaggregate population variability from measurement uncertainty, a PDF of measurands for the population is produced. Then, using Bayes's theorem, the same assumptions, and all the data from the population of individuals, a prior PDF is computed for each individual's measurand. These PDFs are non-negative, and their average is equal to the average of the measurement results for the population. The uncertainty in these Bayesian posterior PDFs is all Berkson with no remaining classical component. The methods are applied to baseline bioassay data from the Hanford site. The data include 90Sr urinalysis measurements on 128 people, 137Cs in vivo measurements on 5,337 people, and 239Pu urinalysis measurements on 3,270 people. The method produces excellent results for the 90Sr and 137Cs measurements, since there are nonzero concentrations of these global fallout radionuclides in people who have not been occupationally exposed. The method does not work for the 239Pu measurements in non-occupationally exposed people because the population average is essentially zero.

Strom, Daniel J.; Joyce, Kevin E.; Maclellan, Jay A.; Watson, David J.; Lynch, Timothy P.; Antonio, Cheryl L.; Birchall, Alan; Anderson, Kevin K.; Zharov, Peter

2012-04-17T23:59:59.000Z

300

Global Security 2009  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Security *Intelligence *Hyper Innovation Global Security Weapons & Complex Integration NIF Office of Strategic Outcomes Operations & Business Lawrence Livermore National...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

The economical production of alcohol fuels from coal-derived synthesis gas. Quarterly technical progress report number 13, October 1--December 31, 1994  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

At WVU, Mo{sub 2}S{sub 3} was produced from gas-phase reactions at 1,100 C. The gas-phase reactor was modified to increase product yields and to decrease particle size. Four Chevrel phases were synthesized for catalytic evaluation. In addition, four supported alkali-modified MoS{sub 2} materials were prepared from a single-source precursor, K{sub 2}Mo{sub 3}S{sub 13}. Screening runs have been carried out on some of these materials and others prepared earlier. At UCC and P, test runs on the reactor system have commenced. Higher alcohols up to butanol were observed and identified at high temperatures. Significant progress has been made on the Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. Frequency distributions have been determined for all of the equipment blocks for the Texaco gasifier cases. For these cases, there is a 10% chance that the actual installed capital cost could exceed the estimated installed capital cost by $40 million dollars. This work will continue with inclusion of variable costs and prediction of the uncertainties in the return on investment. Modifications to the simulated annealing optimization program have been underway in order to increase the level of certainty that the final result is near the global optimum. Alternative design cases have been examined in efforts to enhance the economics of the production of high alcohols. One such process may be the generation of electric power using combustion turbines fueled by synthesis gas.

NONE

1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

Quantum Gravitational Uncertainty of Transverse Position  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

It is argued that holographic bounds on the information content of spacetime might be directly measurable. A new holographic uncertainty principle is conjectured as a quantum property of nearly flat spacetime: The spatial wavefunction of a body at rest at position L relative to any observer has a width in directions transverse to L greater than Delta x_H=C(Ll_P)^{1/2}, where l_p denotes the Planck length and C is of the order of unity. It is shown that this angular uncertainty Delta theta > C (l_P/L)^{1/2} corresponds to the information loss and nonlocality that occur if 3D space has a holographic dual description in terms of Planck-scale waves on a 2D screen with encoding close to the diffraction limit, and agrees with covariant holographic entropy bounds on total number of degrees of freedom. It is estimated that this effect can be precisely tested by interferometers capable of transverse position measurements, such as the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna.

Hogan, Craig J

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

Dealing with Uncertainties During Heat Exchanger Design  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Over the last thirty years much progress has been made in heat exchanger design methodology. Even so, the design engineer still has to deal with a great deal of uncertainty. Whilst the methods used to predict heat transfer coefficients are now quite sophisticated and take account of many physical factors, the results they yield are still inaccurate. Physical property information is required for the estimation of heat transfer coefficients. Available information is often of dubious accuracy. Even given accurate properties modern methods for the predictions of tube-side heat transfer coefficient can be expected to have an accuracy of only ± 10%. For the shell-side, higher errors (say, around ±15%) can be expected. Perhaps worst of all, comes the specification of fouling resistance (the allowance made for the thermal resistance presented by dirt layers deposited on the heat exchanger tubes). In most instances there is little science or understanding behind the specification of these resistances. Traditionally there have been two approaches to dealing with these uncertainties: over-specification of fouling resistance; and, addition of 'design margin' (i.e. addition of extra surface area). There are cases in which both approaches are adopted. The engineer specifying the required duty provides a higher than necessary fouling resistance whilst the exchanger designer adds design margin! Both approaches result in 'over-design'.

Polley, G. T.; Pugh, S. J.

2001-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

304

Essays in monetary economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreignand C. Vega, 2005. Real-Time Price Discovery in Stock, Bond,price data from the Global Financial Database. Both the consensus forecast and the actual real-time

Ghent, Andra C.

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

305

Propagating and aggregating trust with uncertainty measure  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Trust networks have been recognized as a valuable component of many modern systems, such as e-commerce or recommender systems, as they provide a way of quality assessment. In addition to adequate modeling of trust in such network, two fundamental issues ... Keywords: IFS, global trust, intuitionistic fuzzy sets, local trust, relative scalar cardinality of IFS, trust aggregation, trust propagation

Anna Stachowiak

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

306

Greenhouse effect: Implications for economic development. Discussion paper  

SciTech Connect

The paper presents a scientific perspective on the global climate change issue and establishes a comprehensive framework for efficient response to the implications for natural resource conservation and economic development. It has benefitted from extensive comment and review within the international scientific community, as well as within the World Bank. It comprises an extensive summary and critique, from a development viewpoint, of the sometimes conflicting scientific literature and opinion on the greenhouse effect, the related theoretical and empirical evidence, and prospects for global climate change. Finally, it presents a set of conclusions which are worthy of serious consideration by everyone concerned with the enlightened stewardship of the global environment.

Arrhenius, E.; Waltz, T.W.

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

307

Economic Policy Rationales and Studies  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... on Economic Growth. Brief No. 13-3: The Economic Benefits from Improved Cyber Security Infrastructure. Brief No. 13-4: Beyond ...

2013-06-28T23:59:59.000Z

308

On Impacts of Economic Growth.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This thesis presents four papers on impacts of economic growth. The results indicate that faster economic growth improves the short-run political survival prospects of national… (more)

Burke, Paul John

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

Boiler Stack Economizer Tube Failure  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Presentation Title, Boiler Stack Economizer Tube Failure ... performed to investigate the failure of a type 304 stainless steel tube from a boiler stack economizer.

310

Transportation Economic Assistance Program (Wisconsin)  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

The Transportation Economic Assistance Program provides state grants to private business and local governments to improve transportation to projects improving economic conditions and creating or...

311

Argonne TDC: Regional Economic Development  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Regional Economic Development Argonne participates in economic development activities with State of Illinois agencies and programs, business and industrial organizations, and...

312

Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Projects: Approaches for  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Projects: Approaches for Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Projects: Approaches for the Agricultural Sector and Beyond Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Projects: Approaches for the Agricultural Sector and Beyond Agency/Company /Organization: Global Environment Facility Sector: Land Focus Area: Agriculture Topics: Adaptation, Policies/deployment programs Website: siteresources.worldbank.org/ENVIRONMENT/Resources/DevCC1_Adaptation.pd Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Projects: Approaches for the Agricultural Sector and Beyond Screenshot References: Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Projects: Approaches for the Agricultural Sector and Beyond[1] Overview "This paper identifies key challenges and solutions for carrying out

313

Role of aerosols in radiative forcing of climate change: Global mean and uncertainties  

SciTech Connect

Anthropogenically induced climate change is of great current interest because of increases in atmospheric loading of infrared active (greenhouse) gases over the past 150 years and the inferred resultant increase in infrared radiation flux in the troposphere. However, the climate change ascribed to such increases, not to mention predictions of future climate change in response to prospective changes in the earth`s radiation budget, is based virtually entirely on climate model simulations of how the earth`s climate would respond to changes in radiation rather than on empirically established relationships between changes in the earth`s radiation budget and climate change. There is thus an urgent need to evaluate the performance of climate models to ascertain the accuracy with which they represent the changes in temperature and other indicia of climate that have been observed over the industrial period. Such an evaluation, however, requires an accurate assessment of the totality of changes in the earth`s radiation budget in both the longwave (thermal infrared) and shortwave (solar) spectral regions, not just of changes in the longwave due to increased concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases.

Schwartz, S.E.

1998-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

314

Uncertainties on alpha(S) in global PDF analyses and implications for predicted hadronic cross sections.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2 SL AC e p F 2 SL AC e d F L N M C/ BC DM S/ SL AC F E8 66 /N uS ea p p DY E8 66 /N uS ea p d/ pp D Y 2 N F ? N uT eV 2 N F ? CH O RU S 3 N x F ? N uT eV 3 N x F ? CH O RU S Xµµ ?N ? CC FR Xµµ ?N ? N uT eV N C r ? H 1 ep 9 7... . ?l ? II W ?D as ym . ?l ? CD F II W II Z ra p. ?D CD F II Z ra p.2 p F µ B CD M S 2 d F µ B CD M S 2 p F µ N M C 2 d F µ N M C pµ n / µ N M C 2 p F µ E6 65 2 d F µ E6 65 2 SL AC e p F 2 SL AC e d F L N M C/ BC DM S/ SL...

Martin, A D; Stirling, W James; Thorne, Robert S; Watt, G

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

Development of a rapid global aircraft emissions estimation tool with uncertainty quantification  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Aircraft emissions impact the environment by changing the radiative balance of the atmosphere and impact human health by adversely affecting air quality. Many tools used to quantify aircraft emissions are not open source ...

Simone, Nicholas W. (Nicholas William)

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

316

Crop water stress under climate change uncertainty : global policy and regional risk  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Fourty percent of all crops grown in the world today are grown using irrigation, and shifting precipitation patterns due to climate change are viewed as a major threat to food security. This thesis examines, in the framework ...

Gueneau, Arthur

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

317

Global Optimization in Design under Uncertainty: Feasibility Test and Flexibility Index Problems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

, Abdulla 2005 MS 2008 BS, OE PE PhD student, University of Hawaii (Civil Engineering) 30. Kubic, Charles

318

Global Optimization In Design Under Uncertainty: Feasibility Test and Flexibility Index Problems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

/Prof Bill Kearsley A/Prof Jean RĂĽeger Dr Azadeh Farjad Mr Mukesh Vyas Dr Eugene Yu Dr Kui (Kubic) Zhang

319

Life Cycle Management Economic Tools Demonstration: Risk-Informed Long-Term Planning for Equipment  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To date, the EPRI Life Cycle Management (LCM) process and economic evaluation software tools have used point-value deterministic calculations to identify the economically optimum long-term plan for a system, structure, or component (SSC). This collaborative project demonstrates the unique capabilities of four tools that use probabilistic techniques to risk-inform LCM planning (i.e., accounting for risk and uncertainty in long-term asset management resource allocation decisions).

2004-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

320

Challenges, uncertainties and issues facing gas production from gas hydrate deposits  

SciTech Connect

The current paper complements the Moridis et al. (2009) review of the status of the effort toward commercial gas production from hydrates. We aim to describe the concept of the gas hydrate petroleum system, to discuss advances, requirement and suggested practices in gas hydrate (GH) prospecting and GH deposit characterization, and to review the associated technical, economic and environmental challenges and uncertainties, including: the accurate assessment of producible fractions of the GH resource, the development of methodologies for identifying suitable production targets, the sampling of hydrate-bearing sediments and sample analysis, the analysis and interpretation of geophysical surveys of GH reservoirs, well testing methods and interpretation of the results, geomechanical and reservoir/well stability concerns, well design, operation and installation, field operations and extending production beyond sand-dominated GH reservoirs, monitoring production and geomechanical stability, laboratory investigations, fundamental knowledge of hydrate behavior, the economics of commercial gas production from hydrates, and the associated environmental concerns.

Moridis, G.J.; Collett, T.S.; Pooladi-Darvish, M.; Hancock, S.; Santamarina, C.; Boswell, R.; Kneafsey, T.; Rutqvist, J.; Kowalsky, M.; Reagan, M.T.; Sloan, E.D.; Sum, A.K.; Koh, C.

2010-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Assessing environmental benefits and economic costs of aviation environmental policy measures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Despite the recent global economic downturn, longer term growth is anticipated for aviation with an increasing environmental impact, specifically in the areas of noise, air quality, and climate change. To ensure sustainable ...

Mahashabde, Anuja (Anuja Anil)

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

322

Minority Economic Impact | Department of Energy  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Minority Economic Impact Minority Economic Impact Diversity and Inclusion Supporting Small Businesses Minority Economic Impact Partnering with Minority Serving Institutions...

323

Microsoft PowerPoint - GlobalOilEcon.ppt  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Globalization, Oil Prices and Globalization, Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Activity Stephen Brown Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2008 Energy Conference U.S. Energy Information Administration Globalization, Oil Price Shocks and U.S. Economic Activity Nathan Balke, Stephen Brown, Mine YĂĽcel March 31, 2008 I. Introduction. What are the economic consequences to the United States of an increase in the oil price? Conventional thinking: oil supply shock * Higher oil price * Slower GDP growth * Increased price level Real oil price and recessions (shaded) Index, 1982 = 100 0 30 60 90 120 150 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 Empirical evidence of a negative relationship is mixed: For: Mork and Hall (1980), Hamilton (1983, 2003), Balke, Brown, and YĂĽcel (2002), Hamilton and Herrera (2004),

324

Survey and Evaluate Uncertainty Quantification Methodologies  

SciTech Connect

The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a partnership among national laboratories, industry and academic institutions that will develop and deploy state-of-the-art computational modeling and simulation tools to accelerate the commercialization of carbon capture technologies from discovery to development, demonstration, and ultimately the widespread deployment to hundreds of power plants. The CCSI Toolset will provide end users in industry with a comprehensive, integrated suite of scientifically validated models with uncertainty quantification, optimization, risk analysis and decision making capabilities. The CCSI Toolset will incorporate commercial and open-source software currently in use by industry and will also develop new software tools as necessary to fill technology gaps identified during execution of the project. The CCSI Toolset will (1) enable promising concepts to be more quickly identified through rapid computational screening of devices and processes; (2) reduce the time to design and troubleshoot new devices and processes; (3) quantify the technical risk in taking technology from laboratory-scale to commercial-scale; and (4) stabilize deployment costs more quickly by replacing some of the physical operational tests with virtual power plant simulations. The goal of CCSI is to deliver a toolset that can simulate the scale-up of a broad set of new carbon capture technologies from laboratory scale to full commercial scale. To provide a framework around which the toolset can be developed and demonstrated, we will focus on three Industrial Challenge Problems (ICPs) related to carbon capture technologies relevant to U.S. pulverized coal (PC) power plants. Post combustion capture by solid sorbents is the technology focus of the initial ICP (referred to as ICP A). The goal of the uncertainty quantification (UQ) task (Task 6) is to provide a set of capabilities to the user community for the quantification of uncertainties associated with the carbon capture processes. As such, we will develop, as needed and beyond existing capabilities, a suite of robust and efficient computational tools for UQ to be integrated into a CCSI UQ software framework.

Lin, Guang; Engel, David W.; Eslinger, Paul W.

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Global Climate Change Links  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Global Climate Change Links Global Climate Change Links This page provides links to web pages that we at CDIAC feel do a responsible job of presenting information and discussion pertinent to the science behind the global climate change ("global warming") debate. These sites include those on both sides of the debate; some asserting that global warming is a clear and present danger, and others that might be labeled global warming "skeptics." Some of these sites don't take a position per se; they exist to offer the public objective scientific information and results on our present understanding of the climate system. The list is not intended to be comprehensive, by any means. We hope it will be especially helpful for those who may be just beginning their research into global

326

Global irrigation demand - A holistic approach  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To develop a research track on global irrigation demand and the use of future water resources to help feed the world, we need to adopt a holistic approach to understand inter-dependencies and the main drivers of the global water system and unravel positive (reinforcing) and negative (balancing) feedback loops that can lead to cascading consequences. Thus, there needs to be more research dedicated to 1) the modeling of the agricultural and water systems as components within an integrated assessment human-Earth modeling framework, 2) the understanding of the linkages between the physical processes and the human system, and to integrate them in an economic framework to capture the dynamics of market price, and institutional regulations. This editorial discusses the importance of tackling the global irrigation problem in an integrated assessment modeling framework.

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

2012-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

327

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

October 2010 October 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 October 13, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI oil prices averaged $75 per barrel in September but rose above $80 at the end of the month and into early October. EIA has raised the average fourth- quarter 2010 forecasted WTI spot price to $79 per barrel compared with $77 per barrel in last monthĘąs Outlook. WTI spot prices are projected to rise to $85 per barrel by the fourth quarter of next year. As has been the case for most of 2010, WTI futures traded with a notable lack of volatility during the third quarter of 2010 (Figure 1). However, prices did bounce in

328

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

March 2010 March 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 March 9, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $76.39 per barrel in February 2010, almost $2 per barrel lower than the prior month's average and very near the $76 per barrel forecast in last month's Outlook. Last month, the WTI spot price reached a low of $71.15 on February 5 and peaked at $80.04 on February 22. EIA expects WTI prices to average above $80 per barrel this spring, rising to an average of about $82 per barrel by the end of the year and to $85 per barrel by the end of 2011 (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart).

329

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

November 2010 November 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 November 9, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged almost $82 per barrel in October, about $7 per barrel higher than the September average, as expectations of higher oil demand pushed up prices. EIA has raised the average fourth quarter 2010 WTI spot price forecast to about $83 per barrel compared with $79 per barrel in last monthĘąs Outlook. WTI spot prices rise to $87 per barrel by the fourth quarter of next year. Projected WTI prices average $79 per barrel in 2010 and $85 per barrel in 2011. WTI futures for January 2011 delivery (for the 5-day period ending November 4)

330

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

May 2010 May 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 May 11, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $84 per barrel in April 2010, about $3 per barrel above the prior month's average and $2 per barrel higher than forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $84 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $87 by the end of next year, an increase of about $2 per barrel from the previous Outlook (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart). Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, as history has shown. Prices for near-term futures options contracts suggest that the market attaches

331

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement .docx  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 1 January 2011 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 January 11, 2011 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged over $89 per barrel in December, about $5 per barrel higher than the November average. Expectations of higher oil demand, combined with unusually cold weather in both Europe and the U.S. Northeast, contributed to prices. EIA has raised the first quarter 2011 WTI spot price forecast by $8 per barrel from last monthĘąs Outlook to $92 per barrel with a continuing rise to an average $99 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2012. The projected annual average WTI price is $93 per barrel in 2011 and $98 per barrel in

332

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 June 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 June 8, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged less than $74 per barrel in May 2010, almost $11 per barrel below the prior month's average and $7 per barrel lower than forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $79 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $84 by the end of next year, a decrease of about $3 per barrel from the previous Outlook (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart). Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, as history has shown. Prices for near-term futures options contracts suggest that the market attaches

333

Reducing long-term reservoir performance uncertainty  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Reservoir performance is one of the key issues that have to be addressed before going ahead with the development of a geothermal field. In order to select the type and size of the power plant and design other surface installations, it is necessary to know the characteristics of the production wells and of the produced fluids, and to predict the changes over a 10--30 year period. This is not a straightforward task, as in most cases the calculations have to be made on the basis of data collected before significant fluid volumes have been extracted from the reservoir. The paper describes the methodology used in predicting the long-term performance of hydrothermal systems, as well as DOE/GTD-sponsored research aimed at reducing the uncertainties associated with these predictions. 27 refs., 1 fig.

Lippmann, M.J.

1988-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

334

Uncertainty quantification in kinematic wave models  

SciTech Connect

We developed a probabilistic approach to quantify parametric uncertainty in first-order hyperbolic conservation laws (kinematic wave equations). The approach relies on the derivation of a deterministic equation for the cumulative density function (CDF) of the system state, in which probabilistic descriptions (probability density functions or PDFs) of the system parameters and/or initial and boundary conditions serve as inputs. In contrast to PDF equations, which are often used in other contexts, CDF equations allow for straightforward and unambiguous determination of boundary conditions with respect to sample variables.The accuracy and robustness of solutions of the CDF equation for one such system, the Saint-Venant equations of river flows, were investigated via comparison with Monte Carlo simulations.

Wang, Peng; Tartakovsky, Daniel M.

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 December 7, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged over $84 per barrel in November, more than $2 per barrel higher than the October average. EIA has raised the average winter 2010-2011 period WTI spot price forecast by $1 per barrel from the last monthĘąs Outlook to $84 per barrel. WTI spot prices rise to $89 per barrel by the end of next year, $2 per barrel higher than in the last Outlook. Projected WTI prices average $79 per barrel in 2010 and $86 per barrel in 2011. WTI futures for February 2011 delivery during the 5-day period ending December 2

336

Radiotherapy Dose Fractionation under Parameter Uncertainty  

SciTech Connect

In radiotherapy, radiation is directed to damage a tumor while avoiding surrounding healthy tissue. Tradeoffs ensue because dose cannot be exactly shaped to the tumor. It is particularly important to ensure that sensitive biological structures near the tumor are not damaged more than a certain amount. Biological tissue is known to have a nonlinear response to incident radiation. The linear quadratic dose response model, which requires the specification of two clinically and experimentally observed response coefficients, is commonly used to model this effect. This model yields an optimization problem giving two different types of optimal dose sequences (fractionation schedules). Which fractionation schedule is preferred depends on the response coefficients. These coefficients are uncertainly known and may differ from patient to patient. Because of this not only the expected outcomes but also the uncertainty around these outcomes are important, and it might not be prudent to select the strategy with the best expected outcome.

Davison, Matt [Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario (Canada); Department of Statistical and Actuarial Science, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario (Canada); Ivey School of Business, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario (Canada); Kim, Daero [Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario (Canada); Keller, Harald [Department Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, Toronto, Ontario (Canada)

2011-11-30T23:59:59.000Z

337

Quantitative analysis of the economically recoverable resource  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The objective of this study is to obtain estimates of the economically recoverable gas in the Appalachian Basin. The estimates were obtained in terms of a probability distribution, which quantifies the inherent uncertainty associated with estimates where geologic and production uncertainties prevail. It is established that well productivity on a county and regional basis is lognormally distributed, and the total recoverable gas is Normally distributed. The expected (mean), total economically recoverable gas is 20.2 trillion cubic feet (TCF) with a standard deviation of 1.6 TCF, conditional on the use of shooting technology on 160-acre well-spacing. From properties of the Normal distribution, it is seen that a 95 percent probability exists for the total recoverable gas to lie between 17.06 and 23.34 TCF. The estimates are sensitive to well spacings and the technology applied to a particular geologic environment. It is observed that with smaller well spacings - for example, at 80 acres - the estimate is substantially increased, and that advanced technology, such as foam fracturing, has the potential of significantly increasing gas recovery. However, the threshold and optimum conditions governing advanced exploitation technology, based on well spacing and other parameters, were not analyzed in this study. Their technological impact on gas recovery is mentioned in the text where relevant; and on the basis of a rough projection an additional 10 TCF could be expected with the use of foam fracturing on wells with initial open flows lower than 300 MCFD. From the exploration point of view, the lognormal distribution of well productivity suggests that even in smaller areas, such as a county basis, intense exploration might be appropriate. This is evident from the small tail probabilities of the lognormal distribution, which represent the small number of wells with relatively very high productivity.

Pulle, C.V.; Seskus, A.P.

1981-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

Secretary Bodman Meets with Global Energy Ministers at the International  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Global Energy Ministers at the Global Energy Ministers at the International Energy Forum in Qatar Secretary Bodman Meets with Global Energy Ministers at the International Energy Forum in Qatar April 24, 2006 - 10:25am Addthis Bodman emphasizes the need for international cooperation to improve global energy security DOHA, QATAR - U.S. Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bodman attended the 10th International Energy Forum (IEF) in Doha, Qatar, today to discuss the need for international efforts to increase individual and global energy security and encourage market stability. Energy Ministers from the world's major producing and consuming nations were in attendance at the meeting taking place April 23-24, 2006. "In order to sustain the strong global economic growth we've seen in recent years, consumers and producers must work together to encourage transparency

339

We underestimate uncertainties in our predictions.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Prediction is defined in the American Heritage Dictionary as follows: 'To state, tell about, or make known in advance, especially on the basis of special knowledge.' What special knowledge do we demand of modeling and simulation to assert that we have a predictive capability for high consequence applications? The 'special knowledge' question can be answered in two dimensions: the process and rigor by which modeling and simulation is executed and assessment results for the specific application. Here we focus on the process and rigor dimension and address predictive capability in terms of six attributes: (1) geometric and representational fidelity, (2) physics and material model fidelity, (3) code verification, (4) solution verification, (5) validation, and (6) uncertainty quantification. This presentation will demonstrate through mini-tutorials, simple examples, and numerous case studies how each attribute creates opportunities for errors, biases, or uncertainties to enter into simulation results. The demonstrations will motivate a set of practices that minimize the risk in using modeling and simulation for high-consequence applications while defining important research directions. It is recognized that there are cultural, technical, infrastructure, and resource barriers that prevent analysts from performing all analyses at the highest levels of rigor. Consequently, the audience for this talk is (1) analysts, so they can know what is expected of them, (2) decision makers, so they can know what to expect from modeling and simulation, and (3) the R&D community, so they can address the technical and infrastructure issues that prevent analysts from executing analyses in a practical, timely, and quality manner.

Pilch, Martin M.

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

340

Estimation of the Impact of Sampling Errors in the VOS Observations on Air–Sea Fluxes. Part I: Uncertainties in Climate Means  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Sampling uncertainties in the voluntary observing ship (VOS)-based global ocean–atmosphere flux fields were estimated using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and ECMWF 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA-40) as well as seasonal forecasts without data assimilation. Air–...

Sergey Gulev; Thomas Jung; Eberhard Ruprecht

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Unconventional gas outlook: resources, economics, and technologies  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The report explains the current and potential of the unconventional gas market including country profiles, major project case studies, and new technology research. It identifies the major players in the market and reports their current and forecasted projects, as well as current volume and anticipated output for specific projects. Contents are: Overview of unconventional gas; Global natural gas market; Drivers of unconventional gas sources; Forecast; Types of unconventional gas; Major producing regions Overall market trends; Production technology research; Economics of unconventional gas production; Barriers and challenges; Key regions: Australia, Canada, China, Russia, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States; Major Projects; Industry Initiatives; Major players. Uneconomic or marginally economic resources such as tight (low permeability) sandstones, shale gas, and coalbed methane are considered unconventional. However, due to continued research and favorable gas prices, many previously uneconomic or marginally economic gas resources are now economically viable, and may not be considered unconventional by some companies. Unconventional gas resources are geologically distinct in that conventional gas resources are buoyancy-driven deposits, occurring as discrete accumulations in structural or stratigraphic traps, whereas unconventional gas resources are generally not buoyancy-driven deposits. The unconventional natural gas category (CAM, gas shales, tight sands, and landfill) is expected to continue at double-digit growth levels in the near term. Until 2008, demand for unconventional natural gas is likely to increase at an AAR corresponding to 10.7% from 2003, aided by prioritized research and development efforts. 1 app.

Drazga, B. (ed.)

2006-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

342

Incorporating uncertainty in RADTRAN 6.0 input files.  

SciTech Connect

Uncertainty may be introduced into RADTRAN analyses by distributing input parameters. The MELCOR Uncertainty Engine (Gauntt and Erickson, 2004) has been adapted for use in RADTRAN to determine the parameter shape and minimum and maximum of the distribution, to sample on the distribution, and to create an appropriate RADTRAN batch file. Coupling input parameters is not possible in this initial application. It is recommended that the analyst be very familiar with RADTRAN and able to edit or create a RADTRAN input file using a text editor before implementing the RADTRAN Uncertainty Analysis Module. Installation of the MELCOR Uncertainty Engine is required for incorporation of uncertainty into RADTRAN. Gauntt and Erickson (2004) provides installation instructions as well as a description and user guide for the uncertainty engine.

Dennis, Matthew L.; Weiner, Ruth F.; Heames, Terence John (Alion Science and Technology)

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

343

Fatigue reliability of wind turbine fleets: The effect of uncertainty of projected costs  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The cost of repairing or replacing failed components depends on the number and timing of failures. Although the total probability of individual component failure is sometimes interpreted as the percentage of components likely to fail, this perception is often far from correct. Different amounts of common versus independent uncertainty can cause different numbers of components to be at risk of failure. The FAROW tool for fatigue and reliability analysis of wind turbines makes it possible for the first time to conduct a detailed economic analysis of the effects of uncertainty on fleet costs. By dividing the uncertainty into common and independent parts, the percentage of components expected to fail in each year of operation is estimated. Costs are assigned to the failures and the yearly costs and present values are computed. If replacement cost is simply a constant multiple of the number of failures, the average, or expected cost is the same as would be calculated by multiplying by the probability of individual component failure. However, more complicated cost models require a break down of how many components are likely to fail. This break down enables the calculation of costs associated with various probability of occurrence levels, illustrating the variability in projected costs. Estimating how the numbers of components expected to fail evolves over time is also useful in calculating the present value of projected costs and in understanding the nature of the financial risk.

Veers, P.S.

1995-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

344

Summary Short?Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants’ adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energyrelated financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the marketclearing process for risk transfer can be used to generate “price bands ” around observed futures prices for crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities. These bands provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty regarding the range in which markets expect prices to trade. The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) publishes “base case ” projections for a variety of energy prices that go out 12 to 24 months (every January the STEO forecast is extended through December of the following year). EIA has recognized that all price forecasts are highly uncertain and has described the uncertainty by identifying the market factors that may significantly move prices away from their expected paths, such as economic growth, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) behavior, geo-political events, and hurricanes.

unknown authors

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

345

Power Economic Analysis  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

CRSP Management Center CRSP Management Center Western Area Power Administration January 2011 Power Economic Analysis of Operational Restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam In February, 1997, the operating criteria for Glen Canyon Dam were changed. Operation was restricted to a Modified Low Fluctuating Flow as described in the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River Storage Project, Arizona, Final Environmental Impact Statement, March, 1995. These restrictions reduced the operating flexibility of the hydroelectric power plant and therefore the economic value of the electricity it produced. The Environmental Impact Statement provided impact information to support the Record of Decision governing dam operations. The impact

346

Effects of uncertainties and errors on Lyapunov control  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Lyapunov control (open-loop) is often confronted with uncertainties and errors in practical applications. In this paper, we analyze the robustness of Lyapunov control against the uncertainties and errors in quantum control systems. The analysis is carried out through examinations of uncertainties and errors, calculations of the control fidelity under influences of the certainties and errors, as well as discussions on the caused effects. Two examples, a closed control system and an open control system, are presented to illustrate the general formulism.

Yi, X X; Wu, Chunfeng; Oh, C H

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

347

Winners and losers in a world with global warming: Noncooperation, altruism, and social welfare  

SciTech Connect

In this paper, global warming is an asymmetric transboundary externality which benefits some countries or regions and harms others. Few environmental problems have captured the public`s imagination as much and attracted as much scrutiny as global warming. The general perception is that global warming is a net social bad, and that across-the-board abatement of greenhouse gas emissions is therefore desirable. Despite many interesting academic contributions, not all of the basic economics of this phenomenon have been fully worked out. The authors use a simple two-country model to analyze the effects of global warming on resource allocations, the global-warming stock, and national and global welfare.

Caplan, A.J. [Weber State Univ., Ogden, UT (United States). Dept. of Economics; Ellis, C.J.; Silva, E.C.D. [Univ. of Oregon, Eugene, OR (United States). Dept. of Economics

1999-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

348

Partnership for Economic Policy Modeling and Policy Impact Analysis (MPIA)  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Partnership for Economic Policy Modeling and Policy Impact Analysis (MPIA) Partnership for Economic Policy Modeling and Policy Impact Analysis (MPIA) Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP green logo.png FIND MORE DIA TOOLS This tool is part of the Development Impacts Assessment (DIA) Toolkit from the LEDS Global Partnership. Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Modeling and Policy Impact Analysis (MPIA) Model Agency/Company /Organization: Partnership for Economic Policy Sector: Climate, Energy Complexity/Ease of Use: Advanced Website: www.pep-net.org/programs/mpia/ Cost: Free Related Tools Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) SEAGA Intermediate Level Handbook Poverty Social Impact Analysis ... further results A computable general equilibrium model that accounts for the interactions among sectors and institutions, and their links with the global economy. A

349

Comparison of Short-Term and Long-Term Radiative Feedbacks and Variability in Twentieth-Century Global Climate Model Simulations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The climate sensitivity uncertainty of global climate models (GCMs) is partly due to the spread of individual feedbacks. One approach to constrain long-term climate sensitivity is to use the relatively short observational record, assuming there ...

Meghan M. Dalton; Karen M. Shell

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

350

Uncertainty Principle Inequalities Related to Laguerre-Bessel Transform  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this paper, an analogous of Heisenberg inequality is established for Laguerre-Bessel transform. Also, a local uncertainty principle for this transform is investigate

Hamem, Soumeya

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

351

Gas Exploration Software for Reducing Uncertainty in Gas ...  

... * Improve estimation of reservoir parameters and quantify uncertainty in the estimation when exploring for gas and oil deposits using geophysical data More ...

352

Reducing Uncertainties in Life Limits of Titanium Alloys in Turbine ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Presentation Title, Reducing Uncertainties in Life Limits of Titanium Alloys in Turbine Engine Rotors. Author(s), James M. Larsen, Sushant Jha, Christopher J.

353

A surrogate-based uncertainty quantification with quantifiable errors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Surrogate models are often employed to reduce the computational cost required to complete uncertainty quantification, where one is interested in propagating input parameters uncertainties throughout a complex engineering model to estimate responses uncertainties. An improved surrogate construction approach is introduced here which places a premium on reducing the associated computational cost. Unlike existing methods where the surrogate is constructed first, then employed to propagate uncertainties, the new approach combines both sensitivity and uncertainty information to render further reduction in the computational cost. Mathematically, the reduction is described by a range finding algorithm that identifies a subspace in the parameters space, whereby parameters uncertainties orthogonal to the subspace contribute negligible amount to the propagated uncertainties. Moreover, the error resulting from the reduction can be upper-bounded. The new approach is demonstrated using a realistic nuclear assembly model and compared to existing methods in terms of computational cost and accuracy of uncertainties. Although we believe the algorithm is general, it will be applied here for linear-based surrogates and Gaussian parameters uncertainties. The generalization to nonlinear models will be detailed in a separate article. (authors)

Bang, Y.; Abdel-Khalik, H. S. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

354

Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

generation investment by a microgrid under uncertainty.M. E?ects of carbon tax on microgrid combined heat and powersite generation. Nevertheless, a microgrid contemplating the

Siddiqui, Afzal

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

355

Approaches to uncertainty evaluation based on proficiency testing ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

example (glucose in human serum) where the uncertainty .... to the normalised error, EN, (Eq. 2). ... a human plasma sample, expressed in mmol/L. The ana-.

356

Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions  

SciTech Connect

This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

2011-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

357

Including uncertainty in hazard analysis through fuzzy measures  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents a method for capturing the uncertainty expressed by an Hazard Analysis (HA) expert team when estimating the frequencies and consequences of accident sequences and provides a sound mathematical framework for propagating this uncertainty to the risk estimates for these accident sequences. The uncertainty is readily expressed as distributions that can visually aid the analyst in determining the extent and source of risk uncertainty in HA accident sequences. The results also can be expressed as single statistics of the distribution in a manner analogous to expressing a probabilistic distribution as a point-value statistic such as a mean or median. The study discussed here used data collected during the elicitation portion of an HA on a high-level waste transfer process to demonstrate the techniques for capturing uncertainty. These data came from observations of the uncertainty that HA team members expressed in assigning frequencies and consequences to accident sequences during an actual HA. This uncertainty was captured and manipulated using ideas from possibility theory. The result of this study is a practical method for displaying and assessing the uncertainty in the HA team estimates of the frequency and consequences for accident sequences. This uncertainty provides potentially valuable information about accident sequences that typically is lost in the HA process.

Bott, T.F.; Eisenhawer, S.W.

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

358

Decision making under epistemic uncertainty : an application to seismic design  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The problem of accounting for epistemic uncertainty in risk management decisions is conceptually straightforward, but is riddled with practical difficulties. Simple approximations are often used whereby future variations ...

Agarwal, Anna

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

359

Relating confidence to measured information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning  

SciTech Connect

Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to relate confidence to the available information uncertainty in the result using fuzzy sets. Information uncertainty can be quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values.

Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Zerkle, David K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Key, Brian P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Shevitz, Daniel W [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2010-10-07T23:59:59.000Z

360

Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment's final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

Wells, C.

1992-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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361

Uncertainty relation for non-Hamiltonian quantum systems  

SciTech Connect

General forms of uncertainty relations for quantum observables of non-Hamiltonian quantum systems are considered. Special cases of uncertainty relations are discussed. The uncertainty relations for non-Hamiltonian quantum systems are considered in the Schroedinger-Robertson form since it allows us to take into account Lie-Jordan algebra of quantum observables. In uncertainty relations, the time dependence of quantum observables and the properties of this dependence are discussed. We take into account that a time evolution of observables of a non-Hamiltonian quantum system is not an endomorphism with respect to Lie, Jordan, and associative multiplications.

Tarasov, Vasily E. [Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation)] [Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation)

2013-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

362

Robust Dynamic Traffic Assignment under Demand and Capacity Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Assignment under Demand and Capacity Uncertainty ? Giuseppeworst-case sce- nario of demand and capacity con?gurations.uncertain demands and capacities are modeled as unknown-but-

Calafiore, Giuseppe; El Ghaoui, Laurent

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

363

Model simplification of chemical kinetic systems under uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis investigates the impact of uncertainty on the reduction and simplification of chemical kinetics mechanisms. Chemical kinetics simulations of complex fuels are very computationally expensive, especially when ...

Coles, Thomas Michael Kyte

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

364

PDF uncertainties in the extraction of the W mass at LHC: a Snowmass Whitepaper  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The precision measurement of the W boson mass is an important milestone for the LHC physics program in the coming years. An accurate measurement of $M_W$ allows to perform stringent consistency tests of the Standard Model by means of global electroweak fits, which in turn are sensitive to New Physics at scales potentially higher than the ones explored in direct searches. From the theoretical point of view, our limited knowledge of PDFs will be one of the dominant sources of uncertainty in ongoing and future LHC determinations of $M_W$. In this whitepaper, we have quantified the impact of PDF uncertainties in the W mass extractions from the transverse mass distribution at the LHC. The calculation has been performed using the NNPDF2.3 set, which includes direct constrains on the W boson production kinematics with data for electroweak gauge boson production from the LHC. Our results confirm previous estimates that PDF uncertainties in the determination of $M_W$ from the $m_W^T$ distribution are moderate, around 10 MeV at most. We briefly discuss also the case of the lepton $p_T$ distribution.

Juan Rojo; Alessandro Vicini

2013-09-05T23:59:59.000Z

365

2013 Global Carbon Project  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

2013 Global Carbon Project 2013 Global Carbon Project DOI: 10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2013_V1.1 image 2013 Budget v1.1 (November 2013) image 2013 Budget v1.3 (December 2013, contains typographical corrections to 2011 Australia emissions from v1.1 and corrections to the 2011 Australia transfer and consumption emissions from v1.2) image image image image Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions to Reach 36 Billion Tonnes in 2013 Global emissions of carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossil fuels will reach 36 billion tonnes for the year 2013. "This is a level unprecedented in human history," says CSIRO's Dr Pep Canadell, Executive-Director of the Global Carbon Project (GCP) and co-author of a new report. Global emissions due to fossil fuel alone are set to grow this year at a slightly lower pace of 2.1% than the average 3.1% since 2000, reaching 36

366

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, main report  

SciTech Connect

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of the joint effort was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. Experts developed their distributions independently. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. To validate the distributions generated for the dispersion code input variables, samples from the distributions and propagated through the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the first of a three-volume document describing the project.

Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States); Lui, C.H. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Paesler-Sauer, J. [Research Center, Karlsruhe (Germany); Helton, J.C. [and others

1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

Economics of ALMR deployment  

SciTech Connect

The Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) has the potential to extend the economic life of the nuclear option and of reducing the number of high level waste repositories which will eventually be needed in an expanding nuclear economy. This paper reports on an analysis which models and evaluates the economics of the use of ALMRs as a component of this country`s future electricity generation mix. The ALMR concept has the ability to utilize as fuel the fissile material contained in previously irradiated nuclear fuel (i.e., spent fuel) or from surplus weapons grade material. While not a requirement for the successful deployment of ALMR power plant technology, the reprocessing of spent fuel from light water reactors (LWR) is necessary for any rapid introduction of ALMR power plants. In addition, the reprocessing of LWR spent fuel may reduce the number of high level waste repositories needed in the future by burning the long-lived actinides produced in the fission process. With this study, the relative economics of a number of potential scenarios related to these issues are evaluated. While not encompassing the full range of all possibilities, the cases reported here provide an indication of the potential costs, timings, and relative economic attractiveness of ALMR deployment.

Delene, J.G.; Fuller, L.C.; Hudson, C.R.

1994-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

368

Opportunity and Economic  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

-feet powered by green energy. This could include heating with wood pellet-fired boilers, putting solar panels of projects related to wood pellet emissions, operations, economics, and applications. The facility would research partnerships, and be an architectural prototype for natural materials, innovative wood products

Northern British Columbia, University of

369

Programming Languages in Economics  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Young economists sometimes ask which computer programming languages they should learn. This paper answers that question by suggesting that they begin with a high level language like GAUSS, GAMS, Mathematica, Maple or MATLAB depending on their field ... Keywords: computational economics, computer languages, programming languages, software

David A. Kendrick; Hans M. Amman

1999-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

370

Publications Agricultural Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. (2012). Economics of IPM Decisions. Stored Product Protection (1- 9). Manhattan, KS: Kansas State (1-11). Manhattan, KS: Kansas State. http://entomology.k-state.edu/doc/finished- chapters/s156-ch-27 of Food and Agriculture­ Conservation Effects Assessment Project. How to Build Better Agricultural

371

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on early health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

372

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harrison, J.D. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 2: Appendices  

SciTech Connect

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on deposited material and external doses, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

Economic Load Dispatch of Hydroelectric Plant Using a Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization Combined Simulation Annealing Algorithm  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A hybrid particle swarm optimization combined simulated annealing method (HPSAO) is proposed to solve economic load dispatch in this paper. The Simulated annealing (SA) algorithm is used to help PSO jump out the local optimum. Furthermore, a feasibility-based ... Keywords: PSO, SA, economic dispatch, global optimal

Yongqiang Wang; Jianzhong Zhou; Wen Xiao; Yongchuan Zhang

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

375

Global Oil Geopolitics  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Iran-Iraq War . Iranian revolution . Arab Oil Embargo . Asian financial crisis . capacity exhausted . Global financial collapse . 9-11 attacks . OPEC cuts targets 1.7 ...

376

Cleantech Professional Resource Global Limited CPR Global | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Professional Resource Global Limited CPR Global Professional Resource Global Limited CPR Global Jump to: navigation, search Name Cleantech Professional Resource Global Limited (CPR Global) Place London, United Kingdom Zip EC4M 9DN Product Cleantech Professional Resource is a resource management consultancy focusing on the cleantech sector in the UK and Europe. References Cleantech Professional Resource Global Limited (CPR Global)[1] LinkedIn Connections CrunchBase Profile No CrunchBase profile. Create one now! This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. Cleantech Professional Resource Global Limited (CPR Global) is a company located in London, United Kingdom . References ↑ "Cleantech Professional Resource Global Limited (CPR Global)" Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Cleantech_Professional_Resource_Global_Limited_CPR_Global&oldid=343687

377

Natural Gas Price Uncertainty: Establishing Price Floors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report presents the results of comprehensive calculations of ceiling and floor prices for natural gas. Ceiling prices are set by the price levels at which it is more economic to switch from natural gas to residual fuel oil in steam units and to distillate in combined cycle units. Switching to distillate is very rare, whereas switching to fuel oil is quite common, varying between winter and summer and increasing when natural gas prices are high or oil prices low. Monthly fuel use was examined for 89 ...

2007-01-11T23:59:59.000Z

378

CO2 capture, reuse, and sequestration technologies for mitigating global climate change  

SciTech Connect

Fossil fuels currently supply over 85% of the world`s energy needs. They will remain in abundant supply well into the 21st century. They have been a major contributor to the high standard of living enjoyed by the industrialized world. We have learned how to extract energy from fossil fuels in environmentally friendly ways, controlling the emissions of NO{sub x}, S0{sub 2}, unburned hydrocarbons, and particulates. Even with these added pollution controls, the cost of fossil energy generated power keeps falling. Despite this good news about fossil energy, its future is clouded because of the environmental and economic threat posed by possible climate change, commonly referred to as the `greenhouse effect`. The major greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and the major source of anthropogenic C0{sub 2} is combustio of fossil fuels. The potential impacts of global climate change are many and varied, though there is much uncertainty as to the timing and magnitude (Watson et al., 1996). Because of the potential adverse impacts, the world community has adopted the Framework Convention on Climate Change (see Box 1). The urgency of their work was recently underscored when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued their Second Assessment Report which stated that `the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate`. The goal of stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions at their 1990 levels in the year 2000 will not be met by the vast majority of countries. Based on this experience, it is obvious that more aggressive technology responses are required if we want to control greenhouse gas emissions.

Herzog, H.J., MIT Energy Laboratory

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

379

Uncertainty quantification of limit-cycle oscillations  

SciTech Connect

Different computational methodologies have been developed to quantify the uncertain response of a relatively simple aeroelastic system in limit-cycle oscillation, subject to parametric variability. The aeroelastic system is that of a rigid airfoil, supported by pitch and plunge structural coupling, with nonlinearities in the component in pitch. The nonlinearities are adjusted to permit the formation of a either a subcritical or supercritical branch of limit-cycle oscillations. Uncertainties are specified in the cubic coefficient of the torsional spring and in the initial pitch angle of the airfoil. Stochastic projections of the time-domain and cyclic equations governing system response are carried out, leading to both intrusive and non-intrusive computational formulations. Non-intrusive formulations are examined using stochastic projections derived from Wiener expansions involving Haar wavelet and B-spline bases, while Wiener-Hermite expansions of the cyclic equations are employed intrusively and non-intrusively. Application of the B-spline stochastic projection is extended to the treatment of aerodynamic nonlinearities, as modeled through the discrete Euler equations. The methodologies are compared in terms of computational cost, convergence properties, ease of implementation, and potential for application to complex aeroelastic systems.

Beran, Philip S. [Multidisciplinary Technologies Center, Air Vehicles Directorate, AFRL/VASD, Building 146, 2210 Eighth Street, WPAFB, OH 45433 (United States)]. E-mail: philip.beran@wpafb.af.mil; Pettit, Chris L. [United States Naval Academy, 590 Holloway Rd., MS 11-B, Annapolis, MD 21402 (United States)]. E-mail: pettitcl@usna.edu; Millman, Daniel R. [USAF TPS/EDT, 220 South Wolfe Ave, Bldg. 1220, Rm. 131, Edwards AFB, CA 93524-6485 (United States)]. E-mail: daniel.millman@edwards.af.mil

2006-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

380

Evaluating the role of uncertainty in electric utility capacity planning  

SciTech Connect

This final report on Evaluating the Role of Uncertainty in Electric Utility Capacity Planning is divided into separate sections addressing demand, supply and the simultaneous consideration of both and describes several mathematical characterizations of the effects of uncertainty on the capacity expansion decision. The basic objective is to develop more robust models which can appropriately include the fundamental uncertainties associated with capacity expansion planning in the electric utility industry. Much of what has been developed in this project has been incorporated into a long-term, computer model for capacity expansion planning. A review is provided of certain deterministic capacity expansion methodologies. The effect of load curve uncertainty on capacity planning is considered and the use of a certain expected load curve to account for uncertainty in demand is proposed. How uncertainty influences the allocation of capital costs among the various load curve realizations is also discussed. The supply side uncertainties of fuel prices and random availability of generating units are considered. In certain cases it is shown that the use of the expected fuel costs will furnish a solution which minimizes the total expected costs. The effect of derating units to account for their random availability is also characterized. A stochastic linear program formulated to examine the simultaneous consideration of fuel cost and demand uncertainties is analyzed. This volume includes the report text one appendix with information on linear programming-based analysis of marginal cost pricing in the electric utility industry.

Soyster, A.L.

1981-08-31T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Short title: STOCHASTIC VARIATIONAL APPROACH TO MINIMUM UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We introduce a new variational characterization of Gaussian diffusion processes as minimum uncertainty states. We then define a variational method constrained by kinematics of diffusions and Schrödinger dynamics to seek states of local minimum uncertainty for general non-harmonic potentials. PACS numbers:03.65.-w, 03.65.Ca, 03.65.Bz 1.

Fabrizio Illuminati; Lorenza Viola

1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

Random matrix theory for modeling uncertainties in computational mechanics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Random matrix theory for modeling uncertainties in computational mechanics C. Soize Laboratory of Engineering Mechanics, University of Marne-la-Vall´ee, 5 boulevard Descartes, 77454 Marne-la-Vallée, France, e in computational mechanics. If data uncertainties can be modeled by parametric probabilistic methods, for a given

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

383

Poster: Data intensive uncertainty quantification: applications to climate modeling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In October of 2009, LLNL began a three-year Strategic Initiative, "The Advance of Uncertainty Quantification Science with Application to Climate Modeling, Inertial Confinement Fusion Design, and Stockpile Stewardship Science." The goal of the project ... Keywords: climate model, uncertainty quantification

John Tannahill; Donald D. Lucas; David Domyancic; Scott Brandon; Richard Klein

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Engineering computation under uncertainty - Capabilities of non-traditional models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper provides a review of various non-traditional uncertainty models for engineering computation and responds to the criticism of those models. This criticism imputes inappropriateness in representing uncertain quantities and an absence of numerically ... Keywords: Computational efficiency, Fuzzy models, Fuzzy randomness, Imprecise probabilities, Interval analysis, Uncertainty modeling

Bernd Möller; Michael Beer

2008-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

Uncertainties in the Anti-neutrino Production at Nuclear Reactors  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Anti-neutrino emission rates from nuclear reactors are determined from thermal power measurements and fission rate calculations. The uncertainties in these quantities for commercial power plants and their impact on the calculated interaction rates in electron anti-neutrino detectors is examined. We discuss reactor-to-reactor correlations between the leading uncertainties and their relevance to reactor anti-neutrino experiments.

Z. Djurcic; J. A. Detwiler; A. Piepke; V. R. Foster Jr.; L. Miller; G. Gratta

2008-08-06T23:59:59.000Z

386

Uncertainties in the Anti-neutrino Production at Nuclear Reactors  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Anti-neutrino emission rates from nuclear reactors are determined from thermal power measurements and fission rate calculations. The uncertainties in these quantities for commercial power plants and their impact on the calculated interaction rates in electron anti-neutrino detectors is examined. We discuss reactor-to-reactor correlations between the leading uncertainties and their relevance to reactor anti-neutrino experiments.

Djurcic, Z; Piepke, A; Foster, V R; Miller, L; Gratta, G

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng American University Washington, D of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast available to analysts at the time they make their forecasts. Hence, it alleviates some of the limitations

Kim, Kiho

388

Efficient Algorithms for Heavy-Tail Analysis under Interval Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Efficient Algorithms for Heavy-Tail Analysis under Interval Uncertainty Vladik Kreinovich1 heavy-tailed distri- butions, i.e., distributions in which (x) decreases as (x) x- . To properly take for computing these ranges. Keywords: heavy-tailed distributions, interval uncertainty, efficient algorithms

Kreinovich, Vladik

389

Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid Under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

LBNL-60592 Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid Under Uncertainty Afzal Siddiqui'06 1 Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid Under Uncertainty Afzal Siddiqui University a California-based microgrid's decision to invest in a distributed generation (DG) unit that operates

390

Uncertainty measures for general Type-2 fuzzy sets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Five uncertainty measures have previously been defined for interval Type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2 FSs), namely centroid, cardinality, fuzziness, variance and skewness. Based on a recently developed @a-plane representation for a general T2 FS, this paper generalizes ... Keywords: ?-Plane representation, Cardinality, Centroid, Fuzziness, Skewness, Type-2 fuzzy sets, Uncertainty measures, Variance

Daoyuan Zhai; Jerry M. Mendel

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

391

Globalization, citizenship and new information technologies: from the MAI to Seattle  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This chapter examines how information technologies have been used by nongovernmental organizations to contest economic globalization. The chapter uses as case studies the failed attempt to negotiate the Multilateral Agreement on Investment (1995-1998) ...

Peter J. Smith; Elizabeth Smythe

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

392

Design Feasibility Analysis and Optimization under Uncertainty - A Bayesian  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Design Feasibility Analysis and Optimization under Uncertainty - A Bayesian Design Feasibility Analysis and Optimization under Uncertainty - A Bayesian Optimal Decision Framework Speaker(s): Jose M. Ortega Date: October 7, 2003 - 12:00pm Location: Bldg. 90 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Michael Sohn A new approach to the problem of identifying design feasibility and optimality under uncertainty is introduced. Based on the Bayesian concepts of predictive probability and expected utility, the method can quantify the feasibility of a process design and identify the optimal operation conditions when there are uncertainties in the process parameters. The use of Bayesian statistics enables the treatment of a very wide class of parameter uncertainties, including simple bounds, analytic probability density functions, correlation structures and empirical distributions.

393

Economic Impact & Diversity  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

ECONOMIC IMPACT AND DIVERSITY ECONOMIC IMPACT AND DIVERSITY FOURTH QUARTER STATUS (As of August 10, 2006) Executive Summary: ED is responsible for managing the department's on-going small business programs, Affirmative Action programs, Employee Concerns program, EEO programs, and the Department's Minority Education program. ED serves as the support office for department-wide efforts to broaden and/or diversify the Department's base as it relates to employment, contracting and financial assistance awards. Where we are today: ED finalized the reorganization/restructuring process which reduced the offices within ED from five to three. Along with this process, ED moved the Employee Concerns and Special Emphasis activities and personnel to the Office of Civil Rights and Diversity

394

Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) Model | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) Model Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) Model Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP green logo.png FIND MORE DIA TOOLS This tool is part of the Development Impacts Assessment (DIA) Toolkit from the LEDS Global Partnership. Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: REMI Agency/Company /Organization: Regional Economic Models Inc. Sector: Energy Focus Area: Transportation Phase: Determine Baseline, Develop Goals Topics: Baseline projection, GHG inventory, Pathways analysis Resource Type: Software/modeling tools User Interface: Desktop Application Complexity/Ease of Use: Moderate Website: www.remi.com/ Cost: Paid References: http://www.remi.com/index.php?page=overview&hl=en_US Related Tools Job and Economic Development Impact Models (JEDI) The Integrated Environmental Strategies Handbook: A Resource Guide for Air Quality Planning

395

Economics of geothermal energy  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

A selected summary is presented of the resource, technical, and financial considerations which influence the economics of geothermal energy in the US. Estimates of resource base and levelized busbar cost of base load power for several types of geothermal resources are compared with similar estimates for more conventional energy resources. Current geothermal electric power plants planned, under construction, and on-line in the US are noted.

Morris, G.E.; Tester, J.W.; Graves, G.A.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

Impacts of Future Climate Change on California Perennial Crop Yields: Model Projections with Climate and Crop Uncertainties  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Most research on the agricultural impacts of climate change has focused on the major annual crops, yet perennial cropping systems are less adaptable and thus potentially more susceptible to damage. Improved assessments of yield responses to future climate are needed to prioritize adaptation strategies in the many regions where perennial crops are economically and culturally important. These impact assessments, in turn, must rely on climate and crop models that contain often poorly defined uncertainties. We evaluated the impact of climate change on six major perennial crops in California: wine grapes, almonds, table grapes, oranges, walnuts, and avocados. Outputs from multiple climate models were used to evaluate climate uncertainty, while multiple statistical crop models, derived by resampling historical databases, were used to address crop response uncertainties. We find that, despite these uncertainties, climate change in California is very likely to put downward pressure on yields of almonds, walnuts, avocados, and table grapes by 2050. Without CO{sub 2} fertilization or adaptation measures, projected losses range from 0 to >40% depending on the crop and the trajectory of climate change. Climate change uncertainty generally had a larger impact on projections than crop model uncertainty, although the latter was substantial for several crops. Opportunities for expansion into cooler regions are identified, but this adaptation would require substantial investments and may be limited by non-climatic constraints. Given the long time scales for growth and production of orchards and vineyards ({approx}30 years), climate change should be an important factor in selecting perennial varieties and deciding whether and where perennials should be planted.

Lobell, D; Field, C; Cahill, K; Bonfils, C

2006-01-10T23:59:59.000Z

397

Technical, economic and risk analysis of multilateral wells  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The oil and gas industry, more than at any time in the past, is highly affected by technological advancements, new products, drilling and completion techniques, capital expenditures (CAPEX), operating expenditures (OPEX), risk/uncertainty, and geopolitics. Therefore, to make a decision in the upstream business, projects require a thorough understanding of the factors and conditions affecting them in order to systematically analyze, evaluate and select the best choice among all possible alternatives. The objective of this study is to develop a methodology to assist engineers in the decision making process of maximizing access to reserves. The process encompasses technical, economic and risk analysis of various alternatives in the completion of a well (vertical, horizontal or multilateral) by using a well performance model for technical evaluation and a deterministic analysis for economic and risk assessment. In the technical analysis of the decision making process, the flow rate for a defined reservoir is estimated by using a pseudo-steady state flow regime assumption. The economic analysis departs from the utilization of the flow rate data which assumes a certain pressure decline. The financial cash flow (FCF) is generated for the purpose of measuring the economic worth of investment proposals. A deterministic decision tree is then used to represent the risks inherent due to geological uncertainty, reservoir engineering, drilling, and completion for a particular well. The net present value (NPV) is utilized as the base economic indicator. By selecting a type of well that maximizes the expected monetary value (EMV) in a decision tree, we can make the best decision based on a thorough understanding of the prospect. The method introduced in this study emphasizes the importance of a multi-discipline concept in drilling, completion and operation of multilateral wells.

Arcos Rueda, Dulce Maria

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

Privatization and the globalization of energy markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report reviews recent global efforts to privatize energy resources and outlines the opportunities and challenges privatization has presented to U.S. and foreign multinational energy companies. The group of energy companies studied in this report includes the major U.S. petroleum companies and many foreign companies. The foreign companies reviewed include state-run energy enterprises, recently privatized energy enterprises, and foreign multinationals that have been privately held. The privatization of non-petroleum energy industries, such as electricity generation and transmission, natural gas transmission, and coal mining, are also discussed. Overseas investments made by electric companies, natural gas companies, and coal companies are included. The report is organized into six chapters: (1) economics of privatization; (2) petroleum privatization efforts among non-U.S. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development nations; (3) petroleum privatization efforts in Latin America; (4) privatization in socialist and former socialist regimes; (5) privatization efforts in global electric power generation, transmission, and distribution industries; and (6) privatization and globalization of world coal.

NONE

1996-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

Uncertainties in Predicted Ozone Concentrations Due to Input Uncertainties for the UAM-V Photochemical Grid Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Based on studies of ozone episodes in the eastern United States using the photochemical grid model, UAM-V, regulatory agencies have made decisions concerning emissions controls. This project analyzes effects of uncertainties in UAM-V input variables (emissions, initial and boundary conditions, meteorological variables, and chemical reactions) on uncertainties in UAM-V ozone predictions for the July 1995 episode.

2000-11-06T23:59:59.000Z

400

Free Trade and Global Environmental Governance: Rules, Actors and Conflicts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Free Trade and Global Environmental Governance: Rules, Actors and Conflicts Free Trade and Global Environmental Governance: Rules, Actors and Conflicts Speaker(s): Kate O'Neill Date: September 20, 2001 - 12:00pm Location: Bldg. 90 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Mithra Moezzi This talk will focus on emerging conflicts between different, but overlapping, sectors of global governance - on the one hand, the international economic order as represented by the World Trade Organization, and on the other, the international environmental order, as represented by the extensive network of global environmental regimes. In particular, it focuses on the fears raised by many that the WTO and associated Bretton Woods institutions are likely to undermine efforts by international governmental organizations and other non-state actors to protect the global environment. This fear has been driven in large part by

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

PNNL Global Energy Technology Strategy Program | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Technology Strategy Program Technology Strategy Program (Redirected from Global Energy Technology Strategy Program) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Global Energy Technology Strategy Program Name Global Energy Technology Strategy Program Agency/Company /Organization Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Sector Energy Website http://www.pnl.gov/gtsp/ References Global Energy Technology Strategy Program [1] "Since its inception in 1998, the Global Energy Technology Strategy Program (GTSP) has been assessing the important roles that technology can play in effectively managing the long-term risks of climate change. This involves an integrated approach to fully exploring all aspects of climate change - including scientific, economic, regulatory, and social impacts - and then aligning new or existing technologies to mitigate negative consequences.[1]

402

Energy, Environmental & Economic Systems Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Energy, Environmental & Economic Systems Analysis GTMax: A New Deregulated Power Market Analysis Tool Opportunity Decision and Information Sciences Division Center for Energy, Environmental & Economic hourly energy transactions, costs, and revenues. GTMax has a user-friendly geographical information

Kemner, Ken

403

TRANSPORTATION POLICY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

TRANSPORTATION POLICY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: OUR CHOICE FOR THE FUTURE Proceedings from PROCEEDINGS North Dakota's Transportation Network: Our Choice for the Future Program Biographical Sketches PROCEEDINGS Transportation and Economic Development: Our Choice for the Future Program Biographical Sketches

Levinson, David M.

404

Refund for Economic Development (Texas)  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

The Refund for Economic Development under the Tax Code for state tax refunds for economic development. Some Texas property owners may be eligible to receive refunds of state sales and use taxes and...

405

Norske Skog Improves Global Profitability Using Operations Research  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Many businesses are currently uncertain of how the economic recession will affect demand for their services and products. For global papermaker Norske Skog, this is a familiar situation. Over the past decade, the company has experienced declining demand ... Keywords: capacity management, mixed-integer programming, paper manufacturing, supply chain optimization

Graeme Everett; Andy Philpott; Kjetil Vatn; Rune Gjessing

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

8th Global warming international conference and exposition  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Abstracts are presented from The 8th Annual Global Warming international conference and expo. Topics centered around greenhouse gas emission and disposal methods, policy and economics, carbon budget, and resource management. Individual reports have been processed separately for the United States Department of Energy databases.

NONE

1997-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

407

One: The California Economic Outlook  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

THE CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Christopher Thornberg,signs of having peaked. The outlook for 2006 is dominated by

Thornberg, Christopher

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

408

Economic doctrines and network policy  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Disagreements over how to craft Internet policy have become more and more contentious and political. Beyond the technical and engineering aspects are economic questions, and the points of view of various stakeholders and participants on such network ... Keywords: Broadband, Copyright, Doctrines, Economic ideology, Neoclassical economics, Net neutrality, Privacy

Robert D. Atkinson

2011-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

409

Sources of uncertainty in the calculation of loads on supports of piping systems  

SciTech Connect

Loads on piping systems are obtained from an analysis of the piping system. The piping system analysis involves uncertainties from various sources. These sources of uncertainties are discussed and ranges of uncertainties are illustrated by simple examples. The sources of uncertainties are summarized and assigned a judgmental ranking of the typical relative significance of the uncertainty.

Rodabaugh, E.C.

1984-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

410

Strategies for Application of Isotopic Uncertainties in Burnup Credit  

SciTech Connect

Uncertainties in the predicted isotopic concentrations in spent nuclear fuel represent one of the largest sources of overall uncertainty in criticality calculations that use burnup credit. The methods used to propagate the uncertainties in the calculated nuclide concentrations to the uncertainty in the predicted neutron multiplication factor (k{sub eff}) of the system can have a significant effect on the uncertainty in the safety margin in criticality calculations and ultimately affect the potential capacity of spent fuel transport and storage casks employing burnup credit. Methods that can provide a more accurate and realistic estimate of the uncertainty may enable increased spent fuel cask capacity and fewer casks needing to be transported, thereby reducing regulatory burden on licensee while maintaining safety for transporting spent fuel. This report surveys several different best-estimate strategies for considering the effects of nuclide uncertainties in burnup-credit analyses. The potential benefits of these strategies are illustrated for a prototypical burnup-credit cask design. The subcritical margin estimated using best-estimate methods is discussed in comparison to the margin estimated using conventional bounding methods of uncertainty propagation. To quantify the comparison, each of the strategies for estimating uncertainty has been performed using a common database of spent fuel isotopic assay measurements for pressurized-light-water reactor fuels and predicted nuclide concentrations obtained using the current version of the SCALE code system. The experimental database applied in this study has been significantly expanded to include new high-enrichment and high-burnup spent fuel assay data recently published for a wide range of important burnup-credit actinides and fission products. Expanded rare earth fission-product measurements performed at the Khlopin Radium Institute in Russia that contain the only known publicly-available measurement for {sup 103}Rh have also been included.

Gauld, I.C.

2002-12-23T23:59:59.000Z

411

Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis? It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment`s final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis? A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

Wells, C.

1992-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

412

Global Renewable Power International Global RPI | Open Energy...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

RPI) Place Spain Sector Wind energy Product Spain-based developer of wind projects in Poland, Croatia and Chile. References Global Renewable Power International (Global RPI)1...

413

Petroleum and its impact on the contemporary economy found in a process of globalization  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The paper represents a major alarm signal regarding the more and more irrational exploitation of the petroleum resources. OPEC and other major petroleum corporations continue the expansionist policy started last year, regardless of the market tendencies, ... Keywords: OPEC, barrel, demand and supply, dollar, economic crisis, economic globalization, petroleum, petroleum price, stock

Georgiana Dinca; Andrei Toma; Felicia Dumitru; Gratiela Gavrila

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

414

Globalization of law and electronic commerce toward a consistent international regulatory framework  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In principle, this Article seeks to discuss some controversial issues regarding international economic cooperation in the light of new technology. The Article focuses particularly on the relation between international economic cooperation, e-commerce ... Keywords: WTO, e-commerce, international economy: globalization: law

Ali. Z. Marossi

2006-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

415

PULCINELLA -- A General Tool for Propagating Uncertainty in Valuation Networks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We present PULCinella and its use in comparing uncertainty theories. PULCinella is a general tool for Propagating Uncertainty based on the Local Computation technique of Shafer and Shenoy. It may be specialized to different uncertainty theories: at the moment, Pulcinella can propagate probabilities, belief functions, Boolean values, and possibilities. Moreover, Pulcinella allows the user to easily define his own specializations. To illustrate Pulcinella, we analyze two examples by using each of the four theories above. In the first one, we mainly focus on intrinsic differences between theories. In the second one, we take a knowledge engineer viewpoint, and check the adequacy of each theory to a given problem.

Alessandro Saffiotti; Elisabeth Umkehrer

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

416

Retrofit Air Preheat Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Retrofit air preheat systems are the most reliable and efficient means to effect significant energy conservation for large existing industrial furnaces. Units can be quickly installed without a lengthy shutdown, and the furnace efficiency can be increased to a range of 89% to 92%. The economic justification for the addition of this equipment is presented in new total investment curves and simple payout curves for a range of fuel cost. This will enable the owner to quickly determine the preliminary feasibility and conceptual requirements for his project before proceeding with more vigorous work.

Goolsbee, J. A.

1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

417

Estimation, Economic methodology  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this paper I analyse the main strengths and weaknesses of agent-based computational models. I first describe how agent-based simulations can complement more traditional modelling techniques. Then, I rationalise the main theoretical critiques against the use of simulation, which point to the following problematic areas: (i) interpretation of the simulation dynamics, (ii) estimation of the simulation model, and (iii) generalisation of the results. I show that there exist solutions for all these issues. Along the way, I clarify some confounding differences in terminology between the computer science and the economic literature.

Matteo Richiardi; Laboratorio Riccardo; Revelli Centre; Employment Studies; I’m Indebted Francesco Devicienti; Roberto Leombruni; Bruno Contini For Their

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

418

Florida Economic Development Council Conference  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

;21 million jobs needed to return to full employment by 2020 Source: McKinsey Global Institute #12;OK, Smart

419

Regional and Global Data  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Products > Regional/Global Products > Regional/Global Regional and Global Data Biogeochemical Dynamics Data Regional and global biogeochemical dynamics data can be used to improve our understanding of the structure and function of various ecosystems; to enable prediction across spatial and temporal scales; and to parameterize and validate terrestrial ecosystem models. The ORNL DAAC compiles, archives, and distributes more than 150 products from the following projects: Climate Collections Hydroclimatology Collections ISLSCP II Project Net Primary Productivity (NPP) River Discharge (RIVDIS) Russian Land Cover (RLC) Soil Collections Vegetation Collections Vegetation-Ecosystem Modeling (VEMAP) Climate Collections Climate collections include measured and modeled values for variables such as temperature, precipitation, humidity, radiation, wind velocity, and

420

Pax Global, Inc.,  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Pax Global, Inc., Pax Global, Inc., (freezers) Issued: April 2, 2013 BEFORE THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Washington, D.C. 20585 ) ) ) ) ) Case Number: 2013-SE-L413 NOTICE OF NONCOMPLIANCE DETERMINATION Manufacturers and private labelers are prohibited from distributing covered products in the United States that do not comply with applicable federal energy conservation standards. 10 C.F.R. § 429.102; 42 U.S.C. § 6302. Pax Global, Inc. ("Pax Global") is a private labeler and uses the "Crosley" and "Daewoo" brands to distribute freezers in the United States. TESTING l. The U.S. Department of Energy ("DOE") tested four privately labeled units o basic model numbe , manufactured , 1 that had been distributed in the United States by a third-pa1iy private labeler.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


422

KRFTWRK – Global Human Electricity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Power Network 2.1.1 Virtual Power Plants The Global Powernetwork, based on "Virtual Power Plants", called "VPP". A "participant runs a virtual human power plant. Per every "

Prohaska, Rainer

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

423

Global Climate Change  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

When President Bush announced his Global Climate Change Initiative in February 2002, he committed the United States to a new strategy to cut greenhouse gas emissions over the next...

424

Global Warming, Soot, Ice  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Global Warming, Soot, Ice Speaker(s): James Hansen Date: November 7, 2003 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Irreversible "dangerous anthropogenic interference" with the climate system...

425

Estimated Global Hydrographic Variability  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An estimate is made of the three-dimensional global oceanic temperature and salinity variability, omitting the seasonal cycle, both as a major descriptive element of the ocean circulation and for use in the error estimates of state estimation. ...

Gaël Forget; Carl Wunsch

2007-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

426

China's Global Oil Strategy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

21, 2008. Ying, Wang. “ China, Venezuela firms to co-developoilfields. ” China Daily (27 August 2005) http://David and Bi Jianhai. “China’s Global Hunt for Energy. ”

Thomas, Bryan G

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

427

Earth's Global Energy Budget  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An update is provided on the Earth's global annual mean energy budget in the light of new observations and analyses. In 1997, Kiehl and Trenberth provided a review of past estimates and performed a number of radiative computations to better ...

Kevin E. Trenberth; John T. Fasullo; Jeffrey Kiehl

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

428

Global Ocean Meridional Overturning  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A decade-mean global ocean circulation is estimated using inverse techniques, incorporating air–sea fluxes of heat and freshwater, recent hydrographic sections, and direct current measurements. This information is used to determine mass, heat, ...

Rick Lumpkin; Kevin Speer

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

429

China's Global Oil Strategy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

nations began to seek out oil reserves around the world. 3on the limited global oil reserves and spiking prices. Manyto the largest proven oil reserves, making up 61 percent of

Thomas, Bryan G

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

430

The greenhouse effect: Chicken Little and our response to global warming  

SciTech Connect

In this article the author suggests that global warming studies are ambiguous and have generated a chicken little response in the public and in policymakers. Uncertainties in studies of ocean warming and ozone depletion are discussed as well as the role of other trace gases such as methane, chlorofluorocarbons and nitrogen oxides.

Michaels, P.J.

1989-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

A Global Chance-Constraint for Stochastic Inventory Systems Under Service Level Constraints  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We consider a class of production/inventory control problems that has a single product and a single stocking location, for which a stochastic demand with a known non-stationary probability distribution is given. Under the widely-known replenishment cycle ... Keywords: Global chance-constraints, Non-stationary (R,S) policy, Stochastic inventory control, Uncertainty

Roberto Rossi; S. Armagan Tarim; Brahim Hnich; Steven Prestwich

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

432

MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Rethinking the Kyoto Emissions Targets on the Science and Policy of Global Change is an organization for research, independent policy analysis scientific, economic, and ecological aspects of this difficult issue, and combining them into policy

433

A Global Portfolio Strategy for Climate Change Technology Development  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

A Global Portfolio Strategy for Climate Change Technology Development A Global Portfolio Strategy for Climate Change Technology Development Speaker(s): Geoffrey J. Blanford Date: July 21, 2005 - 12:00pm Location: Bldg. 90 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Afzal Siddiqui John Stoops In this study we propose a novel formulation of a decision problem in R&D strategy. The problem is motivated by and applied to the context of technologies relevant to global climate change, but is characterized in general by an aggregate R&D decision-maker with a social welfare objective, technology diffusion markets subject to externalities in which private costs are minimized, and uncertainty in both technological and environmental factors. A technology strategy is defined as the allocation of R&D investment across several broad research programs, and the

434

Economics of Alaska North Slope gas utilization options  

SciTech Connect

The recoverable natural gas available for sale in the developed and known undeveloped fields on the Alaskan North Slope (ANS) total about 26 trillion cubic feet (TCF), including 22 TCF in the Prudhoe Bay Unit (PBU) and 3 TCF in the undeveloped Point Thomson Unit (PTU). No significant commercial use has been made of this large natural gas resource because there are no facilities in place to transport this gas to current markets. To date the economics have not been favorable to support development of a gas transportation system. However, with the declining trend in ANS oil production, interest in development of this huge gas resource is rising, making it important for the U.S. Department of Energy, industry, and the State of Alaska to evaluate and assess the options for development of this vast gas resource. The purpose of this study was to assess whether gas-to-liquids (GTL) conversion technology would be an economic alternative for the development and sale of the large, remote, and currently unmarketable ANS natural gas resource, and to compare the long term economic impact of a GTL conversion option to that of the more frequently discussed natural gas pipeline/liquefied natural gas (LNG) option. The major components of the study are: an assessment of the ANS oil and gas resources; an analysis of conversion and transportation options; a review of natural gas, LNG, and selected oil product markets; and an economic analysis of the LNG and GTL gas sales options based on publicly available input needed for assumptions of the economic variables. Uncertainties in assumptions are evaluated by determining the sensitivity of project economics to changes in baseline economic variables.

Thomas, C.P.; Doughty, T.C.; Hackworth, J.H.; North, W.B.; Robertson, E.P.

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

Coal bed methane global market potential  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Worldwide increases in energy prices, as well as the increased potential for project financing derived from emissions credits, have renewed focus on coal bed methane (CBM) and coal mine methane (CMM) projects in coal-producing countries around the world. Globally, CBM utilization projects (in the operational, development, or planning stages) capture and utilize methane from gassy underground coal mines in at least 13 countries. The total methane emission reductions that could be achieved by these projects are approximately 135 billion cubic feet per year (equal to 14.8 million tons of carbon equivalent per year). This global activity level reflects a growing awareness of the technological practicality and the economic attractiveness of coal mine methane recovery and use. This report outlines the potential of the global CBM market. Contents: An overview of CBM; Challenges and issues; Technologies to generate power from CAM; Global CBM/CMM utilization; Country highlights; Ranking of countries with the largest CMM development potential (Australia, Canada, China, Germany, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Ukraine, United Kingdom, USA, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, France, India, Japan, Kazakhstan, South Africa); Planning CBM/CMM projects; Pre-feasibility and feasibility studies; Demonstration projects; Development plan and application process; Equity and debt; Carbon financing; Government sponsors; Private sponsors; Project risk reduction support; Examples of integrated project financing; Glossary.

Drazga, B. (ed.)

2007-01-16T23:59:59.000Z

436

Characterizing and responding to uncertainty in climate change  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2008). “Investment in risky R&D programs in the face of2009). “Advanced solar R&D: Combining economic anal- ysisInternational energy R&D spillovers and the economics of

Lemoine, Derek Mark

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

437

Uncertainty Quantification Tools for Multiphase Flow Simulations using MFIX  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Uncertainty Uncertainty Quantification Tools for Multiphase Flow Simulations using MFIX X. Hu 1 , A. Passalacqua 2 , R. O. Fox 1 1 Iowa State University, Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Ames, IA 2 Iowa State University, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Ames, IA Project Manager: Steve Seachman University Coal Research and Historically Black Colleges and Universities and Other Minority Institutions Contractors Review Conference Pittsburgh, June 11 th - 13 th 2013 X. Hu, A. Passalacqua, R. O. Fox (ISU) Uncertainty quantification DOE-UCR Review Meeting 2013 1 / 44 Outline 1 Introduction and background 2 Project objectives and milestones 3 Technical progress Univariate case Multivariate case Code structure 4 Future work X. Hu, A. Passalacqua, R. O. Fox (ISU) Uncertainty quantification DOE-UCR Review Meeting 2013 2 / 44 Introduction and background Outline 1 Introduction

438

Reducing CO2 Emissions: Technology, Uncertainty, Decision Making...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Reducing CO2 Emissions: Technology, Uncertainty, Decision Making and Consumer Behavior Speaker(s): Ins Magarida Lima de Azevedo Date: October 31, 2012 - 4:00pm Location: 90-3122...

439

Uncertainties in the Anti-neutrino Production at Nuclear Reactors  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

39] “Improving Thermal Power Accuracy and Plant Safety WhileCanyon Power Plant (DCPP) (California, USA), the thermalthermal power measure- ments and ?ssion rate calculations. The uncertainties in these quantities for commercial power plants

Djurcic, Zelimir

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

440

Uncertainty management in a distributed knowledge based system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In many situations, a knowledge source may not give definite hypothesis; it can only express its belief and disbelief in multiple hypotheses, We present a scheme of uncertainty management in such a system. Disbelief is given a considerable importance ...

Naseem A. Khan; Ramesh Jain

1985-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Patent Protection, Market Uncertainty, and R&D Investment  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Wesley M. Cohen. (2003). “R&D and the Patent Premuim,” NBERDoes market uncertainty reduce R&D investments? A firm-level2001). “Irreversibility of R&D investment and the adverse

Toole, Andrew A; Czarnitzki, Dirk

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Creating value from uncertainty : a study of ocean transportation contracting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

How can financial tools like real options and hedging mitigate and create value from uncertainty in transportation? This paper describes these concepts and identifies research on them that has relevance to transportation. ...

Pálsson, Sigurjón

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

443

Stochastic and Robust Approaches to Optimization Problems under Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In the last decade, optimization models under uncertainty have drawn much attention and efficient algorithms have been developed for solving those problems. This article presents the author's recent attempts conducted in collaboration with a number of ...

Masao Fukushima

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

444

Designing transit concession contracts to deal with uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis proposes a performance regime structure for public transit concession contracts, designed so incentives to the concessionaire can be effective given significant uncertainty about the future operating conditions. ...

Blakey, Tara Naomi Chin

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

445

Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty - A Joint CEC/USNRC Study  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The joint USNRC/CEC consequence uncertainty study was chartered after the development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS in the U.S. and COSYMA in Europe. Both the USNRC and CEC had a vested interest in expanding the knowledge base of the uncertainty associated with consequence modeling, and teamed up to co-sponsor a consequence uncertainty study. The information acquired from the study was expected to provide understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of current models as well as a basis for direction of future research. This paper looks at the elicitation process implemented in the joint study and discusses some of the uncertainty distributions provided by eight panels of experts from the U.S. and Europe that were convened to provide responses to the elicitation. The phenomenological areas addressed by the expert panels include atmospheric dispersion and deposition, deposited material and external doses, food chain, early health effects, late health effects and internal dosimetry.

Gregory, Julie J.; Harper, Frederick T.

1999-07-28T23:59:59.000Z

446

Sensitivity Studies of the Models of Radar-Rainfall Uncertainties  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

It is well acknowledged that there are large uncertainties associated with the operational quantitative precipitation estimates produced by the U.S. national network of the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D). These errors result ...

Gabriele Villarini; Witold F. Krajewski

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

447

Reducing Uncertainty for the DeltaQ Duct Leakage Test  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the DeltaQ duct Leakage Test”. ASHRAE Transactions (inof a new Duct Leakage Test: DeltaQ. LBNL 47308. Walker, I,Uncertainties in the DeltaQ test for Duct Leakage.

Walker, Iain S.; Sherman, Max H.; Dickerhoff, Darryl J.

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

448

Real options approach to capacity planning under uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis highlights the effectiveness of Real Options Analysis (ROA) in capacity planning decisions for engineering projects subject to uncertainty. This is in contrast to the irreversible decision-making proposed by ...

Mittal, Geetanjali, 1979-

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

449

Integration of Uncertainty Information into Power System Operations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Contemporary power systems face uncertainties coming from multiple sources, including forecast errors of load, wind and solar generation, uninstructed deviation and forced outage of traditional generators, loss of transmission lines, and others. With increasing amounts of wind and solar generation being integrated into the system, these uncertainties have been growing significantly. It is critical important to build knowledge of major sources of uncertainty, learn how to simulate them, and then incorporate this information into the decision-making processes and power system operations, for better reliability and efficiency. This paper gives a comprehensive view on the sources of uncertainty in power systems, important characteristics, available models, and ways of their integration into system operations. It is primarily based on previous works conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL).

Makarov, Yuri V.; Lu, Shuai; Samaan, Nader A.; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Hafen, Ryan P.; Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Ning

2011-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

450

Including model uncertainty in risk-informed decision-making  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Model uncertainties can have a significant impact on decisions regarding licensing basis changes. We present a methodology to identify basic events in the risk assessment that have the potential to change the decision and ...

Reinert, Joshua M

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

in the natural gas price. Treat- ment of uncertainty viato risk from natural gas price volatility. In particular,exposure to the natural gas price and maximising its cost

Siddiqui, Afzal

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids Andrea Michiorri Arthur-based battery schedule optimisation in microgrids in presence of network constraints. We examine a specific case

Recanati, Catherine

453

Uncertainties in the Radiative Forcing Due to Sulfate Aerosols  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Radiative transfer calculations based on a new sulfate distribution from a chemistry-transport model simulation have been performed. A wide range of sensitivity experiments have been performed to illustrate the large uncertainty in the radiative ...

Gunnar Myhre; Frode Stordal; Tore F. Berglen; Jostein K. Sundet; Ivar S. A. Isaksen

2004-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

454

Quantification of Cloud Microphysical Parameterization Uncertainty Using Radar Reflectivity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Uncertainty in cloud microphysical parameterization—a leading order contribution to numerical weather prediction error—is estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. An inversion is performed on 10 microphysical parameters using ...

Marcus van Lier-Walqui; Tomislava Vukicevic; Derek J. Posselt

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

455

Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of the uncertainty in the natural gas price. Treat- ment ofits exposure to risk from natural gas price volatility. Inits exposure to the natural gas price and maximising its

Siddiqui, Afzal

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

456

Analysis and reduction of chemical models under uncertainty.  

SciTech Connect

While models of combustion processes have been successful in developing engines with improved fuel economy, more costly simulations are required to accurately model pollution chemistry. These simulations will also involve significant parametric uncertainties. Computational singular perturbation (CSP) and polynomial chaos-uncertainty quantification (PC-UQ) can be used to mitigate the additional computational cost of modeling combustion with uncertain parameters. PC-UQ was used to interrogate and analyze the Davis-Skodje model, where the deterministic parameter in the model was replaced with an uncertain parameter. In addition, PC-UQ was combined with CSP to explore how model reduction could be combined with uncertainty quantification to understand how reduced models are affected by parametric uncertainty.

Oxberry, Geoff; Debusschere, Bert J.; Najm, Habib N.

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

457

Analysis of automated highway system risks and uncertainties. Volume 5  

SciTech Connect

This volume describes a risk analysis performed to help identify important Automated Highway System (AHS) deployment uncertainties and quantify their effect on costs and benefits for a range of AHS deployment scenarios. The analysis identified a suite of key factors affecting vehicle and roadway costs, capacities and market penetrations for alternative AHS deployment scenarios. A systematic protocol was utilized for obtaining expert judgments of key factor uncertainties in the form of subjective probability percentile assessments. Based on these assessments, probability distributions on vehicle and roadway costs, capacity and market penetration were developed for the different scenarios. The cost/benefit risk methodology and analysis provide insights by showing how uncertainties in key factors translate into uncertainties in summary cost/benefit indices.

Sicherman, A.

1994-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

458

Uncertainty of Tropical Cyclone Best-Track Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

With the growing use of tropical cyclone (TC) best-track information for weather and climate applications, it is important to understand the uncertainties that are contained in the TC position and intensity information. Here, an attempt is made to ...

Ryan D. Torn; Chris Snyder

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

459

Ensemble Representation of Uncertainty in Lagrangian Satellite Rainfall Estimates  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new algorithm LSIM (Lagrangian Simulation) has been developed which enables the interpolation uncertainty present in Lagrangian satellite rainfall algorithms such as CMORPH to be characterized using an ensemble product. The new algorithm ...

T. J. Bellerby

460

Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics with application to remote sensing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics with application to remote sensing for many inversion problems in remote sensing; however, uncertainty estimates are rarely provided Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: General or miscellaneous; KEYWORDS: remote sensing, uncertainty, neural

Aires, Filipe

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Uncertainty Representation: Estimating Process Parameters for Forward Price Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Market prices set the value of electric power assets and contracts, yet forward prices are unavailable for time horizons relevant to most valuations. Price forecasts are inherently uncertain because the drivers of prices are uncertain, but equilibrating market forces also work to reduce the growth of uncertainty over time. Consequently, quantifying the degree of future price uncertainty is difficult, but has tremendous strategic potential for power companies seeking to value real options and invest in fl...

1999-12-10T23:59:59.000Z

462

Uncertainties in the Anti-neutrino Production at Nuclear Reactors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Anti-neutrino emission rates from nuclear reactors are determined from thermal power measurements and fission rate calculations. The uncertainties in these quantities for commercial power plants and their impact on the calculated interaction rates in {bar {nu}}{sub e} detectors is examined. We discuss reactor-to-reactor correlations between the leading uncertainties, and their relevance to reactor {bar {nu}}{sub e} experiments.

Djurcic, Zelimir; Detwiler, Jason A.; Piepke, Andreas; Foster Jr., Vince R.; Miller, Lester; Gratta, Giorgio

2008-08-06T23:59:59.000Z

463

Can Advances in Science and Technology Prevent Global Warming? A Critical Review of Limitations and Challenges  

SciTech Connect

The most stringent emission scenarios published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would result in the stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) at concentrations of approximately 550 ppm which would produce a global temperature increase of at least 2 C by 2100. Given the large uncertainties regarding the potential risks associated with this degree of global warming, it would be more prudent to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations at or below current levels which, in turn, would require a greater than 20-fold reduction (i.e., ?95%) in per capita carbon emissions in industrialized nations within the next 50 to 100 years. Using the Kaya equation as a conceptual framework, this paper examines whether CO2 mitigation approaches such as energy efficiency improvements, carbon sequestration, and the development of carbon-free energy sources would be sufficient to bring about the required reduction in per capita carbon emissions without creating unforeseen negative impacts elsewhere. In terms of energy efficiency, large improvements (?5-fold) are in principle possible given aggressive investments in R&D and if market imperfections such as corporate subsidies are removed. However, energy efficiency improvements per se will not result in a reduction in carbon emissions if, as predicted by the IPCC, the size of the global economy has expanded 12-26 fold by 2100. Terrestrial carbon sequestration via reforestation and improved agricultural soil management has many environmental advantages but has only limited CO2 mitigation potential because the global terrestrial carbon sink (ca. 200 Gt C) is small relative to the size of fossil fuel deposits (?4000 Gt C). By contrast, very large amounts of CO2 can potentially be removed from the atmosphere via sequestration in geologic formations and oceans, but carbon storage is not permanent and is likely to create many unpredictable environmental consequences. Renewable solar energy can in theory provide large amounts of carbon-free power. However, biomass and hydroelectric energy can only be marginally expanded and large-scale solar energy installations (i.e., wind, photovoltaics, and direct thermal) are likely to have significant negative environmental impacts. Expansion of nuclear energy is highly unlikely due to concerns over reactor safety, radioactive waste management, weapons proliferation, and cost. In view of the serious limitations and liabilities of many proposed CO2 mitigation approaches it appears that there remain only few no-regrets options such as drastic energy efficiency improvements, extensive terrestrial carbon sequestration, and cautious expansion of renewable energy generation. These promising CO2 mitigation technologies have the potential to bring about the required 20-fold reduction in per capita carbon emission only if population and economic growth are halted without delay. Thus, addressing the problem of global warming requires not only technological research and development but also a reexamination of core values that mistakenly equate material consumption and economic growth to happiness and well-being.

Huesemann, Michael H.

2006-07-03T23:59:59.000Z

464

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of 1-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season.

Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States); Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A. [Gram, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

465

Determination of uncertainty in reserves estimate from analysis of production decline data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Analysts increasingly have used probabilistic approaches to evaluate the uncertainty in reserves estimates based on a decline curve analysis. This is because the results represent statistical analysis of historical data that usually possess significant amounts of noise. Probabilistic approaches usually provide a distribution of reserves estimates with three confidence levels (P10, P50 and P90) and a corresponding 80% confidence interval. The question arises: how reliable is this 80% confidence interval? In other words, in a large set of analyses, is the true value of reserves contained within this interval 80% of the time? Our investigation indicates that it is common in practice for true values of reserves to lie outside the 80% confidence interval much more than 20% of the time using traditional statistical analyses. This indicates that uncertainty is being underestimated, often significantly. Thus, the challenge in probabilistic reserves estimation using a decline curve analysis is not only how to appropriately characterize probabilistic properties of complex production data sets, but also how to determine and then improve the reliability of the uncertainty quantifications. This thesis presents an improved methodology for probabilistic quantification of reserves estimates using a decline curve analysis and practical application of the methodology to actual individual well decline curves. The application of our proposed new method to 100 oil and gas wells demonstrates that it provides much wider 80% confidence intervals, which contain the true values approximately 80% of the time. In addition, the method yields more accurate P50 values than previously published methods. Thus, the new methodology provides more reliable probabilistic reserves estimation, which has important impacts on economic risk analysis and reservoir management.

Wang, Yuhong

2003-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

466

Executive summary for assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-model ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Reinert, Rhonda K.; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

467

MTBE Production Economics  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

MTBE Production MTBE Production Economics Tancred C. M. Lidderdale Contents 1. Summary 2. MTBE Production Costs 3. Relationship between price of MTBE and Reformulated Gasoline 4. Influence of Natural Gas Prices on the Gasoline Market 5. Regression Results 6. Data Sources 7. End Notes 1. Summary Last year the price of MTBE (methyl tertiary butyl ether) increased dramatically on two occasions (Figure 1) (see Data Sources at end of article.): 1. Between April and June 2000, the price (U.S. Gulf Coast waterborne market) of MTBE rose from $1.00 per gallon to over $1.60 per gallon. This represented an increase in the price premium for MTBE over the wholesale price of conventional gasoline from its normal (1995 though 2000 average) $0.26 per gallon to $0.60 per gallon. The MTBE

468

PNNL: Economic Development Office  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Events Calendar Events Calendar left arrow January 2014 right arrow Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Scheduled events for January 4, 2014 Calendar contains no events. Past Events 2013 September 20, 2013 - Startup Weekend Tri-Cities January 29, 2013 - PTAC Class: Developing Your Capability Statement January 24, 2013 - Economic Outlook Summit January 23, 2013 - Women in Business Conference January 10, 2013 - Venture Investment and Partnering Forum January 07, 2013 - New Routes for U.S.-Japan Collaboration / Ambassadorial Outreach Tour 2012 November 29, 2012 - Innovation Summit October 18, 2012 - Funding for Startups from the National Cancer Institute October 11, 2012 - Career Fair October 09, 2012 - Understanding Government Contracting Solicitations

469

AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This report studies the economic impacts of energy policies and climate adaptation generally, and particularly as this relates to employment and innovation. In addition to disseminating original research findings, this study is intended to contribute to policy dialogue and public awareness about environment-economy linkages and sustainable growth. All opinions expressed here are those of the authors and should not be attributed to their affiliated institutions. For this project on Energy Efficiency, Innovation, and Job Creation in California, we express thanks to Next 10, who recognized the importance of this issue for California’s economy and provided essential intellectual impetus and financial support. Thanks are also due for outstanding research assistance by Elliott Deal,

David Roland-holst; Dave Graham-squire; Maryam Kabiri; Fredrich Kahrl; Mehmet Seflek; F. Noel Perry; Morrow Cater; Sarah Henry

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

470

Impacts of Variability and Uncertainty in Solar Photovoltaic Generation at Multiple Timescales  

SciTech Connect

The characteristics of variability and uncertainty of PV solar power have been studied extensively. These characteristics can create challenges for system operators who must ensure a balance between generation and demand while obeying power system constraints at the lowest possible cost. A number of studies have looked at the impact of wind power plants, and some recent studies have also included solar PV. The simulations that are used in these studies, however, are typically fixed to one time resolution. This makes it difficult to analyze the variability across several timescales. In this study, we use a simulation tool that has the ability to evaluate both the economic and reliability impacts of PV variability and uncertainty at multiple timescales. This information should help system operators better prepare for increases of PV on their systems and develop improved mitigation strategies to better integrate PV with enhanced reliability. Another goal of this study is to understand how different mitigation strategies and methods can improve the integration of solar power more reliably and efficiently.

Ela, E.; Diakov, V.; Ibanez, E.; Heaney, M.

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

471

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for long-running computer codes : a critical review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis presents a critical review of existing methods for performing probabilistic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for complex, computationally expensive simulation models. Uncertainty analysis (UA) methods ...

Langewisch, Dustin R

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

Optimal Control of Distributed Energy Resources and Demand Response under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Energy Resources and Demand Response under Uncertainty AfzalEnergy Resources and Demand Response under Uncertainty ?DER in conjunction with demand response (DR): the expected

Siddiqui, Afzal

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

473

NETL: Global Environmental Benefits  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Global Environmental Benefits Global Environmental Benefits Gasification Systems Global Environmental Benefits Environmental performance for future energy production systems is a much greater factor as emission standards tighten in the United States and worldwide. The outstanding environmental performance of gasification systems makes it an excellent technology for the clean production of electricity and other products. In addition, the reduction of CO2 emissions is one of the major challenges facing industry in response to global climate change. Other countries with coal reserves might potentially import technologies developed in the United States to enable low-cost gasification with carbon capture and EOR or sequestration. Not only will this benefit the U.S. gasification technology industry, but it will also result in a global environmental benefit through more affordable control of greenhouse gases (GHGs). See the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) link below for a summary of the impact of fossil fuels without carbon capture on CO2 emissions, on the GHG contributions of different countries, and of the projected impact of developing countries to 2030:

474

Covariant energy-momentum and an uncertainty principle for general relativity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We recognize the natural covariant extension for energy-momentum in general relativity: energy-momentum in spacetime as opposed to space. The key indicator is the Tolman energy integral for stationary systems. The demand that the general expression for arbitrary dynamic systems reduce to the Tolman integral in the case of stationarity leads to the matter-localized Ricci integral for energy-momentum in support of the energy localization hypothesis. The role of the observer is addressed and it is recognized that the field of freely-falling observers extract the global Tolman energy. It is suggested that in the extreme of strong gravity, the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle be generalized in terms of spacetime energy-momentum.

F. I. Cooperstock; M. J. Dupre

2009-04-02T23:59:59.000Z

475

Community Economic Development Business Program (Prince Edward...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Community Economic Development Business Program (Prince Edward Island, Canada) Community Economic Development Business Program (Prince Edward Island, Canada) Eligibility...

476

Global ice sheet modeling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed.

Hughes, T.J.; Fastook, J.L. [Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME (United States). Institute for Quaternary Studies

1994-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

477

Economics of Steam Pressure Reduction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economics of Steam Pressure Reduction is a technical paper that addresses the operating and economic advantages associated with the program to lower the steam operating pressure. Evaluation of a testing program will be discussed. The paper will address the following. 1. Factors that determine the feasibility of reducing the plant steam operating pressure. 2. The operating advantages and disadvantages associated with the decreased steam pressure. 3. The economics of steam pressure reduction. Appropriate visual aids will be utilized as part of the discussion.

Sylva, D. M.

1985-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

478

Principal Associate Director - Global Security  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Principal Associate Director - Global Security Principal Associate Director - Global Security As Principal Associate Director for Global Security, Wallace leads Laboratory programs with special focus on developing and applying the scientific and engineering capabilities to address complex national and global security threats. Contact Operator Los Alamos National Laboratory (505 667-5061 Wallace's expertise is forensic seismology, a highly specialized discipline focusing on detection and quantification of nuclear tests. Terry C. Wallace, Jr. Principal Associate Director for Global Security Terry C. Wallace, Jr., Principal Associate Director for Global Security As Principal Associate Director for Global Security, Wallace leads Laboratory programs with a focus on applying scientific and engineering capabilities

479

Economical Desulfurization of Petroleum Coke  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Presentation Title, Economical Desulfurization of Petroleum Coke ... " Desulfurization of Petroleum Coke Beyond 1600'C" by Christopher A. Paul of Great Lakes ...

480

Agricultural and Resource Economics Update  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Europe. It is producing biodiesel from veg- etable oil, fromsuch as Jatropha, for biodiesel. Some industrial forestsfor the production of biodiesel. The econom- ics of algae as

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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481

The Economics of Green Building  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

returns to the investments in green buildings. Section Vproperty investments; the economic premium to green buildinggreen buildings relative to those of comparable high quality property investments,

Eichholtz, Piet; Kok, Nils; Quigley, John M.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

482

National Reservation Economic Summit (RES)  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

Sponsored by the National Center for American Indian Economic Development, this annual event will feature 18 dynamic and informative workshops on a range of topics, including agriculture, energy,...

483

Economic Recovery Loan Program (Maine)  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

The Economic Recovery Loan Program provides subordinate financing to help businesses remain viable and improve productivity. Eligibility criteria are based on ability to repay, and the loan is...

484

Agricultural and Resource Economics Update  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

econom- ics of algae as a source of biofuel is dependent onThe future of algae as a source of biofuel will depend on

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

Diversity, Institutions and Economic Outcomes  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

GDP growth and social diversity, the economics literature onmush- roomed. 1 Why is social diversity inversely related toand Hideo Owan. 2004. ”Diversity and Pro- ductivity in

Santacreu Vasut, Estefania

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

486

World Fossil Fuel Economics - TMS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Jan 1, 1971 ... World Fossil Fuel Economics ... in world energy demand, particularly in the U. S. and Europe; the consumption patterns and cost patterns of oil, ...

487

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis applied to the JHR reactivity prediction  

SciTech Connect

The on-going AMMON program in EOLE reactor at CEA Cadarache (France) provides experimental results to qualify the HORUS-3D/N neutronics calculation scheme used for the design and safety studies of the new Material Testing Jules Horowitz Reactor (JHR). This paper presents the determination of technological and nuclear data uncertainties on the core reactivity and the propagation of the latter from the AMMON experiment to JHR. The technological uncertainty propagation was performed with a direct perturbation methodology using the 3D French stochastic code TRIPOLI4 and a statistical methodology using the 2D French deterministic code APOLLO2-MOC which leads to a value of 289 pcm (1{sigma}). The Nuclear Data uncertainty propagation relies on a sensitivity study on the main isotopes and the use of a retroactive marginalization method applied to the JEFF 3.1.1 {sup 27}Al evaluation in order to obtain a realistic multi-group covariance matrix associated with the considered evaluation. This nuclear data uncertainty propagation leads to a K{sub eff} uncertainty of 624 pcm for the JHR core and 684 pcm for the AMMON reference configuration core. Finally, transposition and reduction of the prior uncertainty were made using the Representativity method which demonstrates the similarity of the AMMON experiment with JHR (the representativity factor is 0.95). The final impact of JEFF 3.1.1 nuclear data on the Begin Of Life (BOL) JHR reactivity calculated by the HORUS-3D/N V4.0 is a bias of +216 pcm with an associated posterior uncertainty of 304 pcm (1{sigma}). (authors)

Leray, O.; Vaglio-Gaudard, C.; Hudelot, J. P.; Santamarina, A.; Noguere, G. [CEA, DER, SPRC, F-13108 St Paul-Lez-Durance (France); Di-Salvo, J. [CEA, DER, SPEx, F-13108 St Paul-Lez-Durance (France)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

488

Global Trade and Environmental Model (GTEM) | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Global Trade and Environmental Model (GTEM) Global Trade and Environmental Model (GTEM) Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP green logo.png FIND MORE DIA TOOLS This tool is part of the Development Impacts Assessment (DIA) Toolkit from the LEDS Global Partnership. Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Global Trade and Environmental Model (GTEM) Agency/Company /Organization: Australia Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry (ABARES) Sector: Climate, Energy Topics: Analysis Tools Complexity/Ease of Use: Moderate Website: www.daff.gov.au/abares/publications_remote_content/publication_topics/ Related Tools Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) Intertemporal Computable Equilibrium System (ICES) Ventana's Energy, Environment, Economy-Society (E3S) Model ... further results Captures the impact of policy changes on large numbers of economic

489

New Security Challenges in the Global Era: Environmental Security  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

New Security Challenges in the Global Era: Environmental Security New Security Challenges in the Global Era: Environmental Security Speaker(s): Beth Chalecki Date: October 4, 2001 - 12:00pm Location: Bldg. 90 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Mithra Moezzi The environment is the planetary support system on which all other human enterprises depend. If political, social, cultural, religious, and most importantly economic systems are to remain secure and viable, the environment must also remain secure and viable. This makes global environmental conditions a legitimate U.S. national security concern. The security of individuals, communities, nations, and the entire global community is increasingly jeopardized by unpremeditated, non-military environmental threats. These threats are self-generated: we perpetrate them on ourselves, by fouling our air and water, and over-harvesting our land.

490

Future Earth: International Coordination of Research for Global  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Future Earth: International Coordination of Research for Global Sustainability Print E-mail Future Earth: International Coordination of Research for Global Sustainability Print E-mail Monday, January 28, 2013 On Saturday, February 16, 2013 from 1:30-4:30pm the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) will be holding a symposium to present Future Earth, a new 10-year international initiative on integrated global environmental change research. Future Earth is mobilizing the global scientific community, funders, and users of research to define together and address the most pressing research questions on sustainable development and its integrated environmental, social, and economic dimensions. This includes strengthened links between science, policy, and society. The discussion on February 16th will address international coordination of research and funding; co-designing research with funders, scientists, and users; and the role of science in bridging to policy and practice. For more information about the symposium please click here

491

Financing Global Climate Change Mitigation | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Financing Global Climate Change Mitigation Financing Global Climate Change Mitigation Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Financing Global Climate Change Mitigation Agency/Company /Organization: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Sector: Energy Focus Area: Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy Topics: Finance Resource Type: Publications, Guide/manual Website: www.unece.org/energy/se/pdfs/gee21/gee21_pub/GEE21_GlobalClimateChange UN Region: "Western & Eastern Europe" is not in the list of possible values (Eastern Africa, Middle Africa, Northern Africa, Southern Africa, Western Africa, Caribbean, Central America, South America, Northern America, Central Asia, Eastern Asia, Southern Asia, South-Eastern Asia, Western Asia, Eastern Europe, Northern Europe, Southern Europe, Western Europe, Australia and New Zealand, Melanesia, Micronesia, Polynesia, Latin America and the Caribbean) for this property.