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1

Uncertainty Analysis Economic Evaluations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

uncertainties in typical oil and gas projects: 1. The oil price, 2. The investments (capex) and operating 4.1 Oil Prices...............................................................................................14 4.1.1 Analysis of historical oil prices........................................................15

Bhulai, Sandjai

2

Economic History Revisited: New Uncertainties  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to the southern and midwestern regions of the United States. However, the large run-up in oil prices is increasingEconomic History Revisited: New Uncertainties I n the last Sitar-Rutgers Regional Report, we are paying ever-increasing prices for fewer available sites. Warehouse sites in the southern portion

3

Global Warming Mitigation Investments Optimized under Uncertainty  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Global Warming Mitigation Investments Optimized under Uncertainty Global Warming Mitigation Investments Optimized under Uncertainty Speaker(s): Hermann Held Date: July 9, 2010 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Thomas McKone The Copenhagen Accord (2009) recognizes that 'the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius' (compared to pre-industrial levels, '2° target'). In recent years, energy economics have derived welfare-optimal investment streams into low-emission energy mixes and associated costs. According to our analyses, auxiliary targets that are in line with the 2° target could be achieved at relatively low costs if energy investments were triggered rather swiftly. While such analyses assume 'perfect foresight' of a benevolent 'social planner', an accompanying suite of experiments explicitly

4

Uncertainty analysis of geothermal energy economics.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

?? This dissertation research endeavors to explore geothermal energy economics by assessing and quantifying the uncertainties associated with the nature of geothermal energy and energy (more)

Sener, Adil Caner

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

5

Essays on uncertainty in economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis consists of four essays about "uncertainty" and how markets deal with it. Uncertainty is about subjective beliefs, and thus it often comes with heterogeneous beliefs that may be present temporarily or even ...

Simsek, Alp

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

6

A Global Assessment of Manufacturing: Economic  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A Global Assessment of Manufacturing: Economic Development, Energy Use, Carbon Emissions Keywords production, materials, closed loop, China, emerging economies Abstract We present in two parts an assessment of global manufacturing. In the first part, we review economic development, pollution, and carbon

Gutowski, Timothy

7

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect

We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.

Werth, D.; Garrett, A.

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

8

The future viability of algae-derived biodiesel under economic and technical uncertainties  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This study presents a techno-economic assessment of algae-derived biodiesel under economic and technical uncertainties associated with the development of algal biorefineries. A global sensitivity analysis was performed using a High Dimensional Model Representation (HDMR) method. It was found that, considering reasonable ranges over which each parameter can vary, the sensitivity of the biodiesel production cost to the key input parameters decreases in the following order: algae oil content>algae annual productivity per unit area>plant production capacity>carbon price increase rate. It was also found that the Return on Investment (ROI) is highly sensitive to the algae oil content, and to a lesser extent to the algae annual productivity, crude oil price and price increase rate, plant production capacity, and carbon price increase rate. For a large scale plant (100,000tonnes of biodiesel per year) the production cost of biodiesel is likely to be 0.81.6 per kg.

George Brownbridge; Pooya Azadi; Andrew Smallbone; Amit Bhave; Benjamin Taylor; Markus Kraft

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

Uncertainties on alpha_S in global PDF analyses  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We determine the uncertainty on the strong coupling alpha_S due to the experimental errors on the data fitted in global analysis of hard-scattering data, within the standard framework of leading-twist fixed-order collinear factorisation in the MSbar scheme, finding that alpha_S(M_Z^2) = 0.1202^{+0.0012}_{-0.0015} at next-to-leading order and alpha_S(M_Z^2) = 0.1171^{+0.0014}_{-0.0014} at next-to-next-to-leading order. We investigate the interplay between uncertainties on alpha_S and uncertainties on parton distribution functions (PDFs). We show, for the first time, how both these sources of uncertainty can be accounted for simultaneously in calculations of cross sections, and we provide eigenvector PDF sets with different fixed alpha_S values to allow further studies by the general user. We illustrate the application of these PDF sets by calculating cross sections for W, Z, Higgs boson and inclusive jet production at the Tevatron and LHC.

Martin, A D; Thorne, R S; Watt, G

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Intensity targets: implications for the economic uncertainties of emissions trading  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Intensity targets that adjust to economic growth are discussed as one option to control greenhouse gas emissions without strongly affecting economic growth and with less uncertain economic cost than absolute t...

Sonja Peterson

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

www.sida.se The Impact of the Global Economic  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

www.sida.se The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on Women's Well-Being and Empowerment Sida, December 02, 2010 Publication series: Women's Economic Empowerment A worker at a steel recycling mill.m.B. Akash #12;#12;A Guide to Principles, Procedures and Working Methods MariaS.Floro AssociateProfessor,DepartmentofEconomics

Lansky, Joshua

12

Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate Challenges in Talks with World Energy Ministers Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate Challenges in Talks with World Energy Ministers March 13, 2009 - 12:00am Addthis Washington, DC - In recent discussions with a broad range of world energy ministers, U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu has stressed the need for global cooperation on energy, economic and climate challenges. Over the past several weeks, Secretary Chu's dialogue with representatives of both energy producing and consuming nations has reinforced the Obama Administration's commitment to energy independence and stressed the shared opportunities to create jobs and boost the global economy through energy

13

Economic Globalization and a Nuclear Renaissance  

SciTech Connect

The phenomenon of globalization has become increasingly well recognized, documented, and analyzed in the last several years. Globalization, the integration of markets and intra-firm competition on a worldwide basis, involves complex behavioral and mindset changes within a firm that facilitate global competition. The changes revolve around efficient information flow and rapid deployment of technology. The objective of this report is to examine the probable characteristics of a global nuclear renaissance and its broad implications for industry structure and export control relative to nuclear technology. The question of how a modern renaissance would affect the trend toward globalization of the nuclear industry is addressed.

Wood, Thomas W.; Johnson, Wayne L.; Parker, Brian M.

2001-10-22T23:59:59.000Z

14

Global Carbon Pricing Among Countries With Different Economic Prospects  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of greenhouse gases (ghg). The United States, which accounts for around a quarter of global ghg emissions (IEA change problem and argue that ghg cuts could imperil their economic growth, which they expect to lift have less capacity for ghg miti- gation, but also from the fact that, given their economic growth

15

Advertising, economic development, and global warming  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Advertising is tied to global warming through an endogenous growth model. The model allows for the possibility that the environment can become a source rather than a sink for greenhouse gases. Optimal control analysis of the model shows that a feasible steady state is possible for which the environment remains a sink, and identifies a sufficient condition for such to be the case. Comparative-static analysis shows that, for sufficiently small values of steady-state anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration, global surface temperature and advertising in steady state are negative functions of parameters that measure the damaging effects of global warming.

Gary M. Erickson

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

Polymer flooding design and optimization under economic uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract We use a streamline-based simulator that accurately captures non-Newtonian rheology and controls numerical dispersion to investigate polymer-flooding design. First, we develop and test a parallel design algorithm to optimize polymer floods with respect to net present value in terms of slug size, polymer concentration, and initiation; in which, simulations are run simultaneously and the results are combined through scaling of optimal slug size. In terms of optimal strategies, the optimization results illustrate that polymer-flooding design with respect to concentration, slug size, and initiation is more intuitive than earlier expected. It is always beneficial to start polymer flooding as soon as possible preferably before any waterflooding. The optimal slug size is close to being continuous. The optimal concentration is generally high and represents a balance between mobility gains and injectivity losses. Second, we quantify the impact of uncertainty on both the design and profitability of polymer flooding. This serves as a guide to associated data acquisition efforts, where pre-polymer flooding initiation, efforts can be focused on reducing uncertainties of high impact factors thereby increasing the probability of success.

Abdulkareem M. AlSofi; Martin J. Blunt

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

Indicators on Economic Risk from Global Climate Change  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Indicators of economic risk for emissions-intensive investments are presented and used to illustrate shutdown risks for coal-fired power plants compared with emerging utility-scale photovoltaics plants. ... Historically, during the last century the global economy has grown at an average of 3.2% y?1 and emissions of GHGs have increased sublinearly with economic growth, due to improvements in resource productivity. ...

Wolf D. Grossmann; Karl Steininger; Iris Grossmann; Lorenz Magaard

2009-07-17T23:59:59.000Z

18

Modeling aviation's global emissions, uncertainty analysis, and applications to policy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

(cont.) fuel burn results below 3000 ft. For emissions, the emissions indices were the most influential uncertainties for the variance in model outputs. By employing the model, this thesis examined three policy options for ...

Lee, Joosung Joseph, 1974-

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...more complex by the processes of economic globalization. In...preservation (30). Evaluations of the effectiveness...rapeseed oil used for biodiesel. The market price...foreignisation of space: Seven processes driving the current...areas, because of processes as diverse as soil...

Eric F. Lambin; Patrick Meyfroidt

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

An Integrated Assessment Framework for Uncertainty Studies in Global and Regional Climate Change: The IGSM-CAM  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper describes an integrated assessment framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), ...

Monier, Erwan

2012-06-18T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

On the relationship between uncertainties in tropical divergence and the hydrological cycle in global models  

SciTech Connect

A survey of tropical divergence from three GCMs, three global reanalyses and four insitu soundings from field campaigns shows the existence of large uncertainties in the ubiquity of shallow divergent circulation as well as the depth and strength of the deep divergent circulation. More specifically, only two GCMs out of the three GCMs and three global reanalyses show significant shallow divergent circulation, which is present in all in-situ soundings, and of the three GCMs and three global reanalyses, only two global reanalyses have deep divergence profiles that lie within the range of uncertainty of the soundings. The relationships of uncertainties in the shallow and deep divergent circulation to uncertainties in present day and projected strength of the hydrological cycle from the GCMs are assessed. In the tropics and subtropics, deep divergent circulation is the largest contributor to moisture convergence that balances the net precipitation, and inter-model differences in the present day simulations carry over onto the future projections. In comparison to the soundings and reanalyses, the GCMs are found to have deeper and stronger divergent circulation. While these two characteristics of GCM divergence affect the strength of the hydrological cycle, they tend to compensate for each other so that their combined effect is relatively modest.

Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

22

Economic and Environmental Costs of Regulatory Uncertainty for Coal-Fired Power Plants  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Economic and Environmental Costs of Regulatory Uncertainty for Coal-Fired Power Plants ... Retrofit penalty factors are very site-specific (8) and can vary over a wide range of values, exhibiting or not some economies of scale. ... While it seems sensitive to delay regulation until more about feasibility, performance, and costs of control technologies, and overall impact on the U.S. economy is known, it is important to keep in mind that waiting is not free and in fact can be costly to firms and society, and harmful to the environment. ...

Dalia Patio-Echeverri; Paul Fischbeck; Elmar Kriegler

2009-01-12T23:59:59.000Z

23

H. Douville D. Salas-Me lia S. Tyteca On the tropical origin of uncertainties in the global land precipitation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. 2005). Global warming also leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water, soH. Douville ? D. Salas-Me´ lia ? S. Tyteca On the tropical origin of uncertainties in the global land precipitation response to global warming Received: 17 August 2005 / Accepted: 25 October 2005

Ribes, Aurélien

24

Socio-economic benefits in Plan Vivo projects: Trees for Global Benefits, Uganda 1 Socio-economic benefits in Plan Vivo projects  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Socio-economic benefits in Plan Vivo projects: Trees for Global Benefits, Uganda 1 Socio-economic benefits in Plan Vivo projects: Trees for Global Benefits, Uganda Sarah Carter 2009 #12;Socio-economic Kairu, Bbale Marcellinus, Willie McGhee, Alexa Morrison and Pauline Nantongo. #12;Socio-economic

25

Accounting for Global Climate Model Projection Uncertainty in Modern Statistical Downscaling  

SciTech Connect

Future climate change has emerged as a national and a global security threat. To carry out the needed adaptation and mitigation steps, a quantification of the expected level of climate change is needed, both at the global and the regional scale; in the end, the impact of climate change is felt at the local/regional level. An important part of such climate change assessment is uncertainty quantification. Decision and policy makers are not only interested in 'best guesses' of expected climate change, but rather probabilistic quantification (e.g., Rougier, 2007). For example, consider the following question: What is the probability that the average summer temperature will increase by at least 4 C in region R if global CO{sub 2} emission increases by P% from current levels by time T? It is a simple question, but one that remains very difficult to answer. It is answering these kind of questions that is the focus of this effort. The uncertainty associated with future climate change can be attributed to three major factors: (1) Uncertainty about future emission of green house gasses (GHG). (2) Given a future GHG emission scenario, what is its impact on the global climate? (3) Given a particular evolution of the global climate, what does it mean for a particular location/region? In what follows, we assume a particular GHG emission scenario has been selected. Given the GHG emission scenario, the current batch of the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is used to simulate future climate under this scenario, yielding an ensemble of future climate projections (which reflect, to some degree our uncertainty of being able to simulate future climate give a particular GHG scenario). Due to the coarse-resolution nature of the GCM projections, they need to be spatially downscaled for regional impact assessments. To downscale a given GCM projection, two methods have emerged: dynamical downscaling and statistical (empirical) downscaling (SDS). Dynamic downscaling involves configuring and running a regional climate model (RCM) nested within a given GCM projection (i.e., the GCM provides bounder conditions for the RCM). On the other hand, statistical downscaling aims at establishing a statistical relationship between observed local/regional climate variables of interest and synoptic (GCM-scale) climate predictors. The resulting empirical relationship is then applied to future GCM projections. A comparison of the pros and cons of dynamical versus statistical downscaling is outside the scope of this effort, but has been extensively studied and the reader is referred to Wilby et al. (1998); Murphy (1999); Wood et al. (2004); Benestad et al. (2007); Fowler et al. (2007), and references within those. The scope of this effort is to study methodology, a statistical framework, to propagate and account for GCM uncertainty in regional statistical downscaling assessment. In particular, we will explore how to leverage an ensemble of GCM projections to quantify the impact of the GCM uncertainty in such an assessment. There are three main component to this effort: (1) gather the necessary climate-related data for a regional SDS study, including multiple GCM projections, (2) carry out SDS, and (3) assess the uncertainty. The first step is carried out using tools written in the Python programming language, while analysis tools were developed in the statistical programming language R; see Figure 1.

Johannesson, G

2010-03-17T23:59:59.000Z

26

Examining Threats to the Economic Aspects of Globalization  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Based on scholarship in economics and related fields and analysis of current events, this paper examined international economic institutions, shifting US priorities and natural-resources diplomacy as key elements...

James M. Quirk

2008-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

27

The impact of global nuclear mass model uncertainties on $r$-process abundance predictions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Rapid neutron capture or `$r$-process' nucleosynthesis may be responsible for half the production of heavy elements above iron on the periodic table. Masses are one of the most important nuclear physics ingredients that go into calculations of $r$-process nucleosynthesis as they enter into the calculations of reaction rates, decay rates, branching ratios and Q-values. We explore the impact of uncertainties in three nuclear mass models on $r$-process abundances by performing global monte carlo simulations. We show that root-mean-square (rms) errors of current mass models are large so that current $r$-process predictions are insufficient in predicting features found in solar residuals and in $r$-process enhanced metal poor stars. We conclude that the reduction of global rms errors below $100$ keV will allow for more robust $r$-process predictions.

Mumpower, M; Aprahamian, A

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

Global Warming What is Climate? Ocean's Role in Climate Change Uncertainty Quantification, the Next Frontier The Role Played by Oceans in Climate  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Global Warming What is Climate? Ocean's Role in Climate Change Uncertainty Quantification, the Next Department University of Arizona October 11, 2008 #12;Global Warming What is Climate? Ocean's Role in Climate, Undergraduate Students: 2. UQGQG #12;Global Warming What is Climate? Ocean's Role in Climate Change Uncertainty

Restrepo, Juan M.

29

Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

the opportunity for global cooperation Secretary Chu has discussed is the development of carbon capture and sequestration technology from coal-fired power plants that can...

30

Global shark currency: the distribution, frequency, and economic value of shark ecotourism  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Global shark currency: the distribution, frequency, and economic value of shark ecotourism Austin J (Received 10 March 2011; final version received 26 April 2011) Ecotourism represents a highly popularised the distribution, frequency, and economic value of shark-based ecotourism operations worldwide. A total of 376

Miami, University of

31

An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model ...

Monier, Erwan

32

Socio-economic benefits in Plan Vivo projects: Trees for Global Benefits, Uganda 61 Appendix 6.7  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Socio-economic benefits in Plan Vivo projects: Trees for Global Benefits, Uganda 61 Appendix 6 for Global Benefits, Uganda 62 Appendix 6.7 16. What size (ha) are they: Farm 1. ____________ Farm 2 if necessary #12;Socio-economic benefits in Plan Vivo projects: Trees for Global Benefits, Uganda 63 Appendix 6

33

Robust economic/emission dispatch considering wind power uncertainties and flexible operation of carbon capture and storage  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract With increasing wind farm development, solutions of Economic/Emission Power Dispatch (EED) are becoming more difficult to meet the demand of both optimality and robustness because of wind power uncertainties. In this paper, a Robust Economic/Emission Dispatch (REED) model based on effective function is built to deal with wind power uncertainties and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method is employed to improve the calculation precision of effective function. As carbon capture and storage (CCS) plays an important role in reducing carbon emission, the impact of CCS, which operates in flexible mode, on EED problem is also investigated. Multi-objective bacterial colony chemotaxis (MOBCC) is adopted to solve the REED problem. Finally, tests of the proposed method are carried out in the IEEE 30-bus test system. Results demonstrate that the REED model can meet the demand of obtaining robust solutions in the presence of wind power uncertainties and flexible operation of CCS has the advantage of dealing with different carbon reduction index.

Zhigang Lu; Shoulong He; Tao Feng; Xueping Li; Xiaoqiang Guo; Xiaofeng Sun

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and the Global Carbon Cycle: The Key Uncertainties  

DOE R&D Accomplishments (OSTI)

The biogeochemical cycling of carbon between its sources and sinks determines the rate of increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations. The observed increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} content is less than the estimated release from fossil fuel consumption and deforestation. This discrepancy can be explained by interactions between the atmosphere and other global carbon reservoirs such as the oceans, and the terrestrial biosphere including soils. Undoubtedly, the oceans have been the most important sinks for CO{sub 2} produced by man. But, the physical, chemical, and biological processes of oceans are complex and, therefore, credible estimates of CO{sub 2} uptake can probably only come from mathematical models. Unfortunately, one- and two-dimensional ocean models do not allow for enough CO{sub 2} uptake to accurately account for known releases. Thus, they produce higher concentrations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} than was historically the case. More complex three-dimensional models, while currently being developed, may make better use of existing tracer data than do one- and two-dimensional models and will also incorporate climate feedback effects to provide a more realistic view of ocean dynamics and CO{sub 2} fluxes. The instability of current models to estimate accurately oceanic uptake of CO{sub 2} creates one of the key uncertainties in predictions of atmospheric CO{sub 2} increases and climate responses over the next 100 to 200 years.

Peng, T. H.; Post, W. M.; DeAngelis, D. L.; Dale, V. H.; Farrell, M. P.

1987-12-00T23:59:59.000Z

35

Uncertainty in future carbon emissions : a preliminary exploration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In order to analyze competing policy approaches for addressing global climate change, a wide variety of economic-energy models are used to project future carbon emissions under various policy scenarios. Due to uncertainties ...

Webster, Mort David.

36

Sustainability and Management Education in China and India: Enabling a Global Green Economic Transition  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of sustainability management education in China and India is likely to hamper the important transition towards management education in China and India and how those trends impact the important transition towardsSustainability and Management Education in China and India: Enabling a Global Green Economic

Edwards, Paul N.

37

ECONOMIC MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ADOPTION OF CARBON CAPTURE AND SEQUESTRATION TECHNOLOGIES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

ECONOMIC MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ADOPTION OF CARBON CAPTURE AND SEQUESTRATION TECHNOLOGIES J. R. Mc of carbon capture and sequestration technologies as applied to electric generating plants. The MIT Emissions, is used to model carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies based on a natural gas combined cycle

38

Accounting for global-mean warming and scaling uncertainties in climate change impact studies Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11(3), 12071226, 2007  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Accounting for global-mean warming and scaling uncertainties in climate change impact studies 1207(s) 2007. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Accounting for global-mean warming from a few regional climate model runs are scaled, based on different global-mean warming projections

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

39

Using NASA Remote Sensing Data to Reduce Uncertainty of Land-Use Transitions in Global Carbon-Climate Models: Data Management Plan  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

-use transitions and their inherent uncertainty. Our plan for managing these datasets includes quality assessmentUsing NASA Remote Sensing Data to Reduce Uncertainty of Land-Use Transitions in Global Carbon-Climate Models: Data Management Plan L. Chini, G.C. Hurtt, M. Hansen, and P. Potapov Department of Geography

40

Socio-economic benefits in Plan Vivo projects: Trees for Global Benefits, Uganda 50 Appendix 6.6  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Socio-economic benefits in Plan Vivo projects: Trees for Global Benefits, Uganda 50 Appendix 6 Vivo projects: Trees for Global Benefits, Uganda. 2. The Questionnaire 2.1. Sampling methodology Vivo projects: Trees for Global Benefits, Uganda 51 Appendix 6.6 the nearest house, or the next

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Economic analysis under uncertainty of coal fired capture-ready power plants  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study assesses the feasibility of investing in capture ready (CR) coal-based power plants under uncertainty. It defines eighteen cases according to three routes for carbon capture (post, pre and oxy-combustion) and different levels of readiness. Due to the uncertain nature of the development of capture plants, this study applies a probabilistic analysis. Findings for the more likely scenario (median value) indicated that severe pre-investments in CR plants are the best choice only when the implementation of the capture occurs in the short term. In the long term, the investment decision favored the power plants not fully ready. Interestingly, under a less likely but possible scenario (the inferior limit of the probabilistic analysis) IGCC-Ready plants become the best option in the short term, and then oxy-combustion ready plants stand out. Hence, some policies such as those based on financing lowering the discount rate perceived by investors, and those based on fund to research and development, might create an investment environment favorable to CR plants.

Pedro R.R. Rochedo; Alexandre Szklo

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

Supply Chain Networks with Global Outsourcing and Quick-Response Production Under Demand and Cost Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Supply Chain Networks with Global Outsourcing and Quick-Response Production Under Demand and Cost framework for supply chain networks with global outsourcing and quick-response production under demand University of Massachusetts Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 May 2011; revised September 2011 Annals

Nagurney, Anna

43

Supply Chain Networks with Global Outsourcing and Quick-Response Production Under Demand and Cost Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Supply Chain Networks with Global Outsourcing and Quick-Response Production Under Demand and Cost University of Massachusetts Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 May 2011 Abstract This paper develops a modeling and computational framework for supply chain networks with global outsourcing and quick-response production under

Nagurney, Anna

44

Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison  

SciTech Connect

Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 1025% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.

Schmitz, Christoph; van Meijl, Hans; Kyle, G. Page; Nelson, Gerald C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gurgel, Angelo; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; von Lampe, Martin; Wise, Marshall A.; Blanc, Elodie; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Valin, Hugo

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

Global Economic Effects of Changes in Crops, Pasture, and Forests due to Changing Climate, Carbon Dioxide, and Ozone  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Multiple environmental changes will have consequences for global vegetation. To the extent that crop yields and pasture and forest productivity are affected there can be important economic consequences. We examine the ...

Reilly, John M.

46

15.023J / 12.848J / ESD.128J Global Climate Change: Economics, Science, and Policy, Spring 2007  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Introduces scientific, economic, and ecological issues underlying the threat of global climate change, and the institutions engaged in negotiating an international response. Develops an integrated approach to analysis of ...

Jacoby, Henry D.

47

15.023J / 12.848J / ESD.128J Global Climate Change: Economics, Science, and Policy, Spring 2004  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Introduces scientific, economic, and ecological issues underlying the threat of global climate change, and the institutions engaged in negotiating an international response. Develops an integrated approach to analysis of ...

Jacoby, Henry D.

48

Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View 545 Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy, Giuseppe Brundu, Vincenzo Satta 2 Abstract Degradation of soil and vegetation has been investigated in one

Standiford, Richard B.

49

Assessing the Uncertainty in Projecting Local Mean Sea Level from Global Temperature  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The process of moving from an ensemble of global climate model temperature projections to local sea level projections requires several steps. Sea level was estimated in Olympia, Washington (a city that is very concerned with sea level rise because ...

Peter Guttorp; Alex Januzzi; Marie Novak; Harry Podschwit; Lee Richardson; Colin D. Sowder; Aaron Zimmerman; David Bolin; Aila Srkk

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

50

Global trends and uncertainties in terrestrial denitrification and N2O emissions  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...University, , PO Box 800.84, 3508 TB, Utrecht, The Netherlands 7 Alterra, Wageningen...denitrification models [34], the model applied in this paper is simple, computing denitrification...Global model with 0.5 0.5 resolution applied in this study, representing denitrification...

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

51

Why Do Global Long-term Scenarios for Agriculture Differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison  

SciTech Connect

Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. Ten global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socio-economic, climate change and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Results suggest that, once general assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines, and that several common conclusions are possible. Nonetheless, differences in basic model parameters, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. This holds for both the common reference scenario and for the various shocks applied. We conclude that agro-economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross-fertilize analyses at different scales.

von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Cai, Yongxia; Calvin, Katherine V.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Kyle, G. Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Nelson, Gerald; Sands, Ronald; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; van Meijl, Hans

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

Uncertainty in environmental economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In a world of certainty, the design of environmental policy is relatively straightforward, and boils down to maximizing the present value of the flow of social benefits minus costs. But the real world is one of considerable ...

Pindyck, Robert S.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

53

Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison  

SciTech Connect

Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, e.g. from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an RCP2.6-type scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in an RCP8.5-type scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.

Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Kyle, G. Page; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Havlik, Petr; van Meijl, Hans; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Popp, Alexander; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk; Wise, Marshall A.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

54

"Japan and the EU in the global economy -challenges and opportunities" Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

"Japan and the EU in the global economy - challenges and opportunities" Bruegel Graduate School and financial linkages between Europe and Japan: new evidence and scope for improvement André Sapir, Senior of Economics, Kobe University; Senior Research Fellow, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan

Banbara, Mutsunori

55

Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.  

SciTech Connect

Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subset of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.

Hernandez, Jacquelynne; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Jennings, Barbara Joan; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Brown, Theresa Jean; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

Patent Protection, Market Uncertainty, and R&D Investment  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Uncertainty, and Investment, Journal of EconomicOptions, Irreversible Investment and Firm Uncertainty: NewWhat do we know about investment under uncertainty?

Toole, Andrew A; Czarnitzki, Dirk

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

Economic value of improved quantification in global sources and sinks of carbon dioxide  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...approximately US$20 billion...value exceeding US$10 trillion...cycle and current sources of uncertainty...restructuring of internal energy consumption/production...greater than US$400 billion...reviewed the sources of errors in...

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

58

Characterization of uncertainties in the operation and economics of the proposed seawater desalination plant in the Gaza Strip  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the Gaza Strip, the available freshwater sources are severely polluted and overused. Desalination of seawater through reverse osmosis (RO) has become the most realistic option to meet a rapidly growing water demand. It is estimated that the Gaza Strip will need to develop a seawater desalination capacity of about 120,000 m3/d by the year 2008, and an additional 30,000 m3/d by the year 2016 in order to maintain a fresh water balance in the coastal aquifer and to fulfill the water demand for different uses in a sustainable manner. Cost and reliability of a large RO facility are still subject to much uncertainty. The cost of seawater desalination by RO systems varies with facility size and lifetime, financing conditions, intake type and pre-treatment requirements, power requirements, recovery rate, chemicals cost, spare parts cost, and membrane replacement cost. The permeate salinity is a function of feed water temperature, recovery rate, and permeate flux. The quantity of water produced depends mainly on plant size, recovery rate, and operating load factor. Many of these parameters are subject to a great deal of uncertainty. The objective of this work is to develop a probabilistic model for the simulation of seawater reverse osmosis processes using a Bayesian belief network (BBN) approach. This model represents a new application of probabilistic modeling tools to a large-scale complex system. The model is used to: (1) characterize the different uncertainties involved in the RO process; (2) optimize the RO process reliability and cost; and (3) study how uncertainty in unit capital cost, unit operation and maintenance (O&M) cost, and permeate quality is related to different input variables. The model utilizes information from journal articles, books, expert opinions, and technical reports related to the study area, and can be used to support operators and decision makers in the design of RO systems and formulation of operational policies. The structure of the model is not specific to the Gaza Strip and can be easily populated with data from any large-scale RO plant in any part of the world.

Said Ghabayen; Mac McKee; Mariush Kemblowski

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

Using Advanced Technology-Rich Models for Regional And Global Economic Analysis of GHG Mitigation  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This article presents the case for a detailed regional analysis of the economic impacts of GHG control, via a set of inter-connected...

Richard Loulou; Amit Kanudia

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

60

Economic Development in a Changing Global Economy: Examining the Perspectives of Practitioners in Ontario, Canada.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Although economic development has been a long standing tradition within policy agenda of municipalities, it has nevertheless undergone significant changes as a way of gaining (more)

Taabazuing, Maxwell

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Non-Adjoint Surfactant Flood Optimization of Net Present Value and Incorporation of Optimal Solution Under Geological and Economic Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

follows the style of SPE Journal. 2 2. LITERATURE REVIEW Literature reviews for this research involved studying the past history of surfactant flood optimization and water flood optimization. Each area was unique in its perspective... that it is not purely a physical problem but an economical problem also. They continued in their analysis of past work by critiquing the work that argues for optimal salinity as vital in designing optimal surfactant floods (Porzucek, et al., 1988a). Assimilating...

Odi, Uchenna O.

2011-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

62

Life cycle analysis of distributed concentrating solar combined heat and power: economics, global warming potential and water  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We report on life cycle assessment (LCA) of the economics, global warming potential and water (both for desalination and water use in operation) for a distributed concentrating solar combined heat and power (DCS-CHP) system. Detailed simulation of system performance across 1020 sites in the US combined with a sensible cost allocation scheme informs this LCA. We forecast a levelized cost of $0.25kWh?1 electricity and $0.03kWh?1 thermal, for a system with a life cycle global warming potential of ~80gCO2eqkWh?1 of electricity and ~10gCO2eqkWh?1 thermal, sited in Oakland, California. On the basis of the economics shown for air cooling, and the fact that any combined heat and power system reduces the need for cooling while at the same time boosting the overall solar efficiency of the system, DCS-CHP compares favorably to other electric power generation systems in terms of minimization of water use in the maintenance and operation of the plant. The outlook for water desalination coupled with distributed concentrating solar combined heat and power is less favorable. At a projected cost of $1.40m?3, water desalination with DCS-CHP would be economical and practical only in areas where water is very scarce or moderately expensive, primarily available through the informal sector, and where contaminated or salt water is easily available as feed-water. It is also interesting to note that $0.40$1.90m?3 is the range of water prices in the developed world, so DCS-CHP desalination systems could also be an economical solution there under some conditions.

Zack Norwood; Daniel Kammen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

63

A stochastic programming approach for optimal microgrid economic operation under uncertainty using 2m?+?1 point estimate method  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

By increasing concern over climate change and the security of energy supplies wind power and photovoltaic are emerging as important sources of electrical energy throughout the world. The wind speed at a given location is continuously varying. There are changes in the annual mean wind speed from year to year (annual) changes with season (seasonal) with passing weather systems (synoptic) on a daily basis (diurnal) and from second to second (turbulence). Common sense tells us that irradiation varies regionally with the changing seasons and hourly with the daily variation of the sun's evaluation. This paper proposes a new method for optimal management of MicroGrids under uncertain environments. In this study the 2m?+?1 point estimate method is used to model the uncertainty in the load demands the market prices and the electric power generation of the wind farms and the photovoltaic systems. The Weibull Beta and normal distributions are used to handle the uncertain input variables in this study. Moreover a Self-Adaptive Bee Swarm Optimization algorithm is presented to achieve an optimal-operational planning with regard to the cost minimization. In the proposed framework four different moving patterns are suggested in order to make an adaptive and robust optimization algorithm for different problems with different fitness landscape. In the devised method each bee self-adaptively chooses one of the proposed moving patterns according to a probability model to update its position. The proposed probability model is based on the ability of each strategy to generate more optimal solutions in the past generations. The efficiency of the method is validated on a typical microgrid.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

Energy and Economic Impacts of H.R.5049, the Keep America Competitive Global Warming Policy Act  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3 3 Energy and Economic Impacts of H.R.5049, the Keep America Competitive Global Warming Policy Act August 2006 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization. Service Reports are prepared by the Energy Information Administration upon special request and are based on assumptions specified by the requester.

65

Moral purpose, economic incentive and global trade : why new business models are needed  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Globalization has occurred in various forms over the past century, yet only recently has it become daily news. This evolving process has created numerous underlying tensions that are not well understood. While western ...

Samel, Hiram M

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

Continuous improvement at a multinational company : dealing with uncertainty in the global supply chain and analyzing implementation dynamics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis explores the problem of global supply chain flexibility in the context of a multinational commonly that we refer to as Company X. Company X faces competitive markets, increasingly demanding customers, and ...

Ochoa Gonzalez, Arturo

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

67

Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a ...

Webster, Mort David.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Mayer, Monika.; Reilly, John M.; Harnisch, Jochen.; Hyman, Robert C.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Wang, Chien.

68

Realistic Mitigation Options for Global Warming  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...uncertainty (48). The energy modeling results that employ other methods...concerns that environmental control could impede economic development...Sources and Guidelines for Control of Existing Sources: Municipal...100% under present U.S. laws) but to a lower global warming...

Edward S. Rubin; Richard N. Cooper; Robert A. Frosch; Thomas H. Lee; Gregg Marland; Arthur H. Rosenfeld; Deborah D. Stine

1992-07-10T23:59:59.000Z

69

Technical and economical system comparison of photovoltaic and concentrating solar thermal power systems depending on annual global irradiation  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Concentrating solar thermal power and photovoltaics are two major technologies for converting sunlight to electricity. Variations of the annual solar irradiation depending on the site influence their annual efficiency, specific output and electricity generation cost. Detailed technical and economical analyses performed with computer simulations point out differences of solar thermal parabolic trough power plants, non-tracked and two-axis-tracked PV systems. Therefore, 61 sites in Europe and North Africa covering a global annual irradiation range from 923 to 2438 kWh/m2a have been examined. Simulation results are usable irradiation by the systems, specific annual system output and levelled electricity cost. Cost assumptions are made for today's cost and expected cost in 10 years considering different progress ratios. This will lead to a cost reduction by 50% for PV systems and by 40% for solar thermal power plants. The simulation results show where are optimal regions for installing solar thermal trough and tracked PV systems in comparison to non-tracked PV. For low irradiation values the annual output of solar thermal systems is much lower than of PV systems. On the other hand, for high irradiations solar thermal systems provide the best-cost solution even when considering higher cost reduction factors for PV in the next decade. Electricity generation cost much below 10 Eurocents per kWh for solar thermal systems and about 12 Eurocents/kWh for PV can be expected in 10 years in North Africa.

Volker Quaschning

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

70

Global Warming, endogenous risk and irreversibility  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The economics of global warming, Institute for InternationalEconomic Models of Global Warming, Cambridge, Mass. MITstochastic losses from global warming, Risk Analysis 16(2):

Fisher, Anthony C.; Narain, Urvashi

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

71

Long-Term Planning for Nuclear Energy Systems Under Deep Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Ethics, Implementa- tion, Uncertainties. Nuclear Energy Agency, Organization for Economic Co- Operation and Development,

Kim, Lance Kyungwoo

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

72

Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

: A Global View Optimal Maneuvering of Forest Fire Protection Resources1 Joseph Romanovsky,2 Vladimir. t is taken in consideration, that now there are no one dispatcher bases that monitor both air fire protection and land fire protection

Standiford, Richard B.

73

Analysis of Global Economic and Environmental Impacts of a Substantial Increase in Bioenergy Wallace E. Tyner (wtyner@purdue.edu), Thomas W. Hertel, Farzad Taheripour*, and Dileep K. Birur  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Analysis of Global Economic and Environmental Impacts of a Substantial Increase in Bioenergy much insight into how alternative bioenergy production scenarios could change global agricultural markets and land-use, with repercussions for international trade. As the World Bank reports, nearly 70

74

Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

: A Global View Macroeconomic Analysis of Investment in Fire Protection Using Social Accounting Matrixes an analysis which evaluates the effects of investments in fire protection on the regional economy from Poster--Analysis of Investments in Fire Protection Using SAM--Pellitero, Suarez As a direct consequence

Standiford, Richard B.

75

Political uncertainty and risk premia  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract We develop a general equilibrium model of government policy choice in which stock prices respond to political news. The model implies that political uncertainty commands a risk premium whose magnitude is larger in weaker economic conditions. Political uncertainty reduces the value of the implicit put protection that the government provides to the market. It also makes stocks more volatile and more correlated, especially when the economy is weak. We find empirical evidence consistent with these predictions.

?ubo Pstor; Pietro Veronesi

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

76

The Tourism Global Value Chain  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The Tourism Global Value Chain ECONOMIC UPGRADING AND WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT Michelle Christian 2011 CENTER on GLOBALIZATION, GOVERNANCE & COMPETITIVENESS #12;The Tourism Global Value Chain: Economic: November 17, 2011 #12;The Tourism Global Value Chain: Economic Upgrading and Workforce Development i Table

Richardson, David

77

Economics Undergraduate BSc Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economics Undergraduate BSc Economics BSc Economics and Politics #12;www.bath.ac.uk/economics Welcome to the Department of Economics The Department has a strong international research reputation in mainstream economics. Our teaching is internationally respected and our students are in demand by employers

Burton, Geoffrey R.

78

Economics Postgraduate MSc Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economics Postgraduate MSc Economics MSc Economics & Finance MSc International Money & Banking #12;www.bath.ac.uk/economics Welcome to the Department of Economics The Department offers a range. The Department has a strong international research reputation in mainstream economics. Our teaching and research

Burton, Geoffrey R.

79

Modeling the oil Transition: A Summary of the Proceedings of the DOE/EPA Workshop on the Economic and Environmental Implications of Global Energy Transitions, February 2007  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

7-014 7-014 Modeling the Oil Transition: A Summary of the Proceedings of the DOE/EPA Workshop on the Economic and Environmental Implications of Global Energy Transitions February 2007 David L. Greene, Editor DOCUMENT AVAILABILITY Reports produced after January 1, 1996, are generally available free via the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Information Bridge: Web site: http://www.osti.gov/bridge Reports produced before January 1, 1996, may be purchased by members of the public from the following source: National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 Telephone: 703-605-6000 (1-800-553-6847) TDD: 703-487-4639 Fax: 703-605-6900 E-mail: info@ntis.fedworld.gov Web site: http://www.ntis.gov/support/ordernowabout.htm

80

THE ECONOMIC SITUATION IN THE ECE REGION  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

THE ECONOMIC SITUATION IN THE ECE REGION DIETER HESSE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DIVISION UNECE #12;Major trends in the global economy so far in 2003 Global economic activity picked up ­ but uneven regional growth forces United States remains main engine of global economic growth Japan and Asian emerging

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Economic slowdown in the US, rehabilitation of fiscal policy and the case for a co-ordinated global reflation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

.8 1.0 1.2 19 60 01 19 62 01 19 64 01 19 66 01 19 68 01 19 70 01 19 72 01 19 74 01 19 76 01 19 78 01 19 80 01 19 82 01 19 84 01 19 86 01 19 88 01 19 90 01 19 92 01 19 94 01 19 96 01 19 98 01 20 00 01 20 02 01 A ve ra ge S ta nd ar d D ev ia tio n... ,b; Papadimitriou & Wray, 2001; Godley & Martin, 1999; Godley & Wray, 1999). The private-sector as a whole cannot liquidate financial assets and, simultaneously, sustain an economic expansion. Concurrent sales of financial assets would result in a stock market...

Izurieta, Alex

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

82

Communication of uncertainty in temperature forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We used experimental economics to test whether undergraduate students presented with a temperature forecast with uncertainty information in a table and bar graph format were able to use the extra information to interpret a given forecast. ...

Pricilla Marimo; Todd R. Kaplan; Ken Mylne; Martin Sharpe

83

Valuation Made Simple: No Uncertainties, Just Time  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Finance deals with time and uncertainty. This chapter introduces the very basics of financial economics in a deterministic setting. Leaving aside any consideration of risk is obviously restrictive, yet importa...

L. M. Abadie; J. M. Chamorro

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

Global Partnership and Alliance Opportunities | Department of...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Partnership and Alliance Opportunities Global Partnership and Alliance Opportunities Many challenges and uncertainty facing the automotive industry, creating partnering...

85

Adaptive control of hypersonic vehicles in presence of actuation uncertainties  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The thesis develops a new class of adaptive controllers that guarantee global stability in presence of actuation uncertainties. Actuation uncertainties culminate to linear plants with a partially known input matrix B. ...

Somanath, Amith

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

86

CHARTING BC'S ECONOMIC FUTURE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CHARTING BC'S ECONOMIC FUTURE discussionguide 100communityconversations #12;1 Thank you for agreeing to participate in this Community Conversation about BC's economic future. Each year Simon Fraser is "Charting BC's Economic Future". Faced with an increasingly competitive global economy, it is more important

Kavanagh, Karen L.

87

Effects of long-term straw incorporation on the net global warming potential and the net economic benefit in a ricewheat cropping system in China  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Straw incorporation has multiple effects on greenhouse gas emissions and soil productivity. However, few studies have comprehensively evaluated the effects of long-term straw incorporation. An ongoing long-term straw incorporation experiment in a ricewheat cropping system in China was established in 1990 and was used in the present study to evaluate the net global warming potential (NGWP) and the net economic benefit (NEB) of the straw return. The following four field treatments were included: a control (CK); N, P and K fertilization (NPK); fertilization plus a moderate rate of straw application (NPKS1); and fertilization plus a high rate of straw application (NPKS2). We calculated the increase in the soil organic carbon (SOC) and the straw-induced emissions of CH4 and N2O, which were expressed as the global warming potential (GWP) in units of CO2-equivalent (CO2-eq) at the 100-year scale. The straw-induced NEB was defined as the difference between the economic income, which was calculated by multiplying the increase in straw-induced crop grain yield by the grain price, and the economic loss was computed by multiplying the increase in straw-induced CO2-eq emissions by the carbon price. The results showed that long-term straw incorporation significantly increased the CH4 emissions and the topsoil SOC density. The GWP of the straw-induced CH4 emissions was 3.213.92 times that of the straw-induced SOC sequestration rate, suggesting that long-term direct straw incorporation in the ricewheat systems worsens rather than mitigates the climate change. Additionally, continuous straw incorporation slightly enhanced the rice and wheat grain yields, contributing to the production of the NEB. We determined that under the current carbon price, ranging from 2.55 to 31.71 EUR per ton CO2-eq, the direct straw incorporation will produce a positive NEB, ranging from 156 to 658 RMBha?1year?1, if the grain yield prices do not fluctuate, which does not provide a significant incentive for farmers to change from their traditional direct straw incorporation pattern. Considering the other benefits that the straw application produced, such as improving soil fertility and the water retention capacity, we recommend that the government should establish an incentive for ecological compensation to encourage farmers to implement proper straw incorporation, such as composting straw under aerobic conditions before application.

Longlong Xia; Shuwei Wang; Xiaoyuan Yan

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

Climate Policy: Science, Economics, and Extremes  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

C. Herring, 2013. Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a2010. Fat tails, exponents, extreme uncertainty: SimulatingScience, Economics, and Extremes Anthony C. Fisher and Phu

Fisher, A. C; Le, P. V

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

89

Combined effects of nitrogen fertilization and biochar on the net global warming potential, greenhouse gas intensity and net ecosystem economic budget in intensive vegetable agriculture in southeastern China  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Field experiments were conducted to determine the effects of nitrogen (N) fertilization and biochar addition on the net global warming potential (net GWP), greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) and net ecosystem economic budget (NEEB). These experiments were conducted in an intensive vegetable field with 4 consecutive vegetable crops in 2012 and 2013 in southeastern China. The experiment was conducted with a 32 factorial design in triplicate at N fertilizer rates of 0, 1475, 1967kgNha?1 and biochar rates of 0, 20, and 40tha?1. Although CH4 emissions were not obviously affected by N fertilization, N2O emissions increased by 27.2116.2% and the net GWP increased by 30.6307.2%. Consequently, the GHGI increased significantly, but vegetable yield and the NEEB did not improve. Furthermore, biochar amendments did not significantly influence CH4 emissions, but significantly decreased the N2O emissions by 1.725.4%, the net GWP by 89.6700.5%, and the GHGI by 89.5644.8%. In addition, vegetable yields significantly increased by 2.174.1%, which improved the NEEB. Thus, N fertilization did not increase vegetable yields or the NEEB. However, N fertilization did increase the net GWP and GHGI. In contrast, biochar additions resulted in lower N2O emissions and net GWP and GHGI, but increased vegetable yield and the NEEB in the intensive vegetable production system. Therefore, appropriate biochar amendment should be studied to combat changing climate and to improve the economic profits of vegetable production.

B. Li; C.H. Fan; H. Zhang; Z.Z. Chen; L.Y. Sun; Z.Q. Xiong

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

90

Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NVLAP Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty #12;Assessor Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 3 Measurement Uncertainty ·Calibration and testing labs performing Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 4 Measurement Uncertainty ·When the nature of the test precludes

91

Global Environmental Course Title  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Department Global Environmental Studies Room Course Title Frontier of Sustainability Science Instructor Akihisa MORI, Global Environmental Studies Satoshi KONISHI, Institute of Advanced consisting from a variety of academic field, including philosophy, politics, economics, energy, architecture

Takada, Shoji

92

Perspectives on Global Change: the TARGETS Approach  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Perspectives on Global Change: the TARGETS Approach Perspectives on Global Change: the TARGETS Approach Speaker(s): Bert DeVries Date: February 6, 1998 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3148 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Richard Sextro TARGETS is a simulation model designed to help explore the future of the world innovatively and to search for adequate operationalization of the concept of sustainable development. It incorporates a unique approach to the study of long-term global change and sustainability issues. The model is distinguished by its treatment of uncertainties through explicit formulation of cultural perspectives on controversial issues, and by its inclusion of a visualisation tool to enable transparent and interactive presentation of scenario analyses. TARGETS embodies an interdisciplinary approach, deals explictly with both physical and socio-economic

93

Capital indivisibility and economic efficiency  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......i-r)T ) . (50) CAPITAL INDIVISIBILITY AND ECONOMIC...justifiable when paying off past expenditure, but, when applied to future expenditure, it leads to effectively...uncertainty about future capital investment, this weighting......

W. R. Hodgkins

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

Design and Economic Analysis of a Thermochemical Lignocellulosic Biomass-to-Butanol Process  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Second-generation biofuels show great promise for addressing some of the major challenges of achieving a sustainable society, such as global climate change, energy security, and land use (food vs fuel). ... land (pure real estate) ... In reality, renewable fuels have a number of uncertainties, especially regarding government policies, and other potential benefits such as carbon emission reductions, fossil-fuel energy savings, energy security, and economic development that can be difficult to quantify. ...

Chinedu Okoli; Thomas A. Adams; II

2014-06-17T23:59:59.000Z

95

Global Paradox  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

From the Publisher:In the tradition of his bestselling Megatrends books, John Naisbitt explores the new wave of global economic change predicted as a result of the breaking apart of the Soviet empire--and the opportunities and challenges for nations, ...

John Naisbitt

1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

96

Cost model for optimum thicknesses of insulated walls considering indirect impacts and uncertainties  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Nowadays, insulation is increasingly used for houses and buildings for its economic and environmental advantages. The performance of an insulated construction depends mainly on the thickness and the properties of the used insulation material. However, this performance is subjected to various uncertainties related for instance to the manufacturing process of the material and to the different workmanship errors that affect the thermal resistance of the insulated construction. In practice, these uncertainties are still rarely considered in energy analysis. Nevertheless, beyond a given level of uncertainties, the insulation system does not perform as expected which induces additional unexpected costs related to energy and pollution. This work aims first, at showing the impact of these uncertainties on the reliability of the insulated construction and second, at developing a new formulation of the global cost for the design of insulation system considering additional costs related to user and environment. The proposed cost formulation allows us to provide a better estimation of the payback period. Three configurations are considered with different insulation schemes in order to show the impact of uncertainties and indirect costs on the insulation performance.

A. Assani; A. Chateauneuf; J.-P. Fontaine; Ph. Audebert

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

97

Harmful routines? Uncertainty in science and conflicting views on routine petroleum operations in Norway  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Offshore petroleum activities are the focus of highly politicised debates globally. Typically, public debate is sparked by catastrophic events, such as the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and decision-making processes fuelled by the assessment of worst-case scenarios. However, everyday routine petroleum operations also impact the marine ecosystems and adjoining socio-economic sectors, but the extent and severity of the impacts are uncertain. This paper takes as its point of departure routine operations and their surrounding uncertainties. Particularly, it focuses on the debates of whether to extend routine petroleum operations in vulnerable and valuable parts of Norway, such as the Lofoten area and the Sula Ridge. These conflicts draw on important and for some, epistemological uncertainties that surround the impacts of routine operations. The paper argues that it is necessary to first highlight these uncertainties, rather than marginalise them, and second, recognise that uncertainties are not simply a scientific challenge, but can be a powerful political tool. This paper unpacks and explores uncertainties associated with three phases of routine operations, that are used to steer political actions: (i) the impacts of seismic surveys on fish and marine mammals; (ii) the impacts of drilling mud and drill cuttings on benthic communities such as deep-sea coral reefs; and (iii) the impacts of produced water on the marine environment. The paper discusses the importance of transparency in addressing these uncertainties, and emphasises the need to implement the precautionary principle in a more participatory way. It thus proposes participatory exercises in order to allow the recognition of the epistemological nature of uncertainties.

Anne Blanchard; Kjellrun Hiis Hauge; Gisle Andersen; Jan Helge Foss; Bjrn Einar Grsvik; Nils Olav Handegard; Matthias Kaiser; Sonnich Meier; Erik Olsen; Frode Vikeb

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

98

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices Ping-Yu Chen, Chia;Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices* Ping-Yu Chen Department of Applied Economics of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean

Hickman, Mark

99

Fractured elites : the politics of economic crisis in Mexico  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic crises are such powerful socioeconomic disasters that, not surprisingly, they are usually explained by powerful socioeconomic pressures, such as global financial speculation, structural economic failure, or populist ...

Schlefer, Jonathan King

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

The Offshore Services Global Value Chain  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The Offshore Services Global Value Chain ECONOMIC UPGRADING AND WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT Karina & COMPETITIVENESS #12;The Offshore Services Global Value Chain: Economic Upgrading and Workforce Development "Skills & Competitiveness, Duke University Posted: November 17, 2011 #12;The Offshore Services Global Value Chain: Economic

Richardson, David

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
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to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Handling uncertainty in science  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...techniques to predict uncertainty in...techniques used to predict uncertainty in...economy, or of the outbreak of life-threatening pandemic flu, have parallels...weather forecast model. (b) Example...ocean-atmosphere model. Source: European...

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

The Economics Department of Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The Economics Initiative Department of Economics #12;Economics at LSE The Department of Economics is the top ranked economics department in Europe and among the top 12 worldwide. It is one of the largest economics departments in the world, with over 60 faculty and 1,000 students and a department which makes

103

AbstractIt is argued that globalization may lead to an unjust world under the oppression by economic political and cultural  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

;{1} ·Amartya Sen {2} Jürgen Habermas" "extended regionalism {3} · Martha Nussbaumcosmopolitanism Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability New York Doubleday 2003. {2}Amartya Sen Development

Yu, Alex

104

Uncertainty and Risk  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter shows how multiple realizations can be used to support the assessment of uncertainty and risk.

Mario E. Rossi; Clayton V. Deutsch

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

105

Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty  

DOE Data Explorer (OSTI)

Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

Mccomiskey, Allison

106

Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View Approach to Reaching an Optimum Budget  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

7 Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy that the recurrence of fires in forested areas has the effect of degrading the environment in terms of: destruction Regulation (EEC) 2152/2003 on the monitoring of forests and environmental interaction in the Community

Standiford, Richard B.

107

Uncertainties in Gapped Graphene  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Motivated by graphene-based quantum computer we examine the time-dependence of the position-momentum and position-velocity uncertainties in the monolayer gapped graphene. The effect of the energy gap to the uncertainties is shown to appear via the Compton-like wavelength $\\lambda_c$. The uncertainties in the graphene are mainly contributed by two phenomena, spreading and zitterbewegung. While the former determines the uncertainties in the long-range of time, the latter gives the highly oscillation to the uncertainties in the short-range of time. The uncertainties in the graphene are compared with the corresponding values for the usual free Hamiltonian $\\hat{H}_{free} = (p_1^2 + p_2^2) / 2 M$. It is shown that the uncertainties can be under control within the quantum mechanical law if one can choose the gap parameter $\\lambda_c$ freely.

Eylee Jung; Kwang S. Kim; DaeKil Park

2011-07-27T23:59:59.000Z

108

Estimating the Economic Cost of Sea-Level Rise  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To improve the estimate of economic costs of future sea-level rise associated with global climate change,

Sugiyama, Masahiro.

109

Uncertainty in projected impacts of climate change on water  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Global Carbon Project · Scenarios trends are averages across all models available for each scenario class1928 2000 Uncertainty in projected impacts of climate change on water Uncertainty in projected-2004Observed Changes: 1970-2004 · High confidence changes in: ­ rainfall intensity ­ extreme temperatures

Maurer,. Edwin P.

110

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods for improving design robustness and reliability  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Engineering systems of the modern day are increasingly complex, often involving numerous components, countless mathematical models, and large, globally-distributed design teams. These features all contribute uncertainty ...

He, Qinxian, Ph. D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

111

Optimal design and operation of energy systems under uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper is concerned with integrated design and operation of energy systems that are subject to significant uncertainties. The problem is cast as a two-stage stochastic programming problem, which can be transformed into a large-scale nonconvex mixed-integer nonlinear programming problem (MINLP). The MINLP exhibits a decomposable structure that can be exploited by nonconvex generalized Benders decomposition (NGBD) for efficient global optimization. This paper extends the NGBD method developed by the authors recently, such that the method can handle non-separable functions and integer operational decisions. Both the standard NGBD algorithm and an enhanced one with piecewise convex relaxations are discussed. The advantages of the proposed formulation and solution method are demonstrated through case studies of two industrial energy systems, a natural gas production network and a polygeneration plant. The first example shows that the two-stage stochastic programming formulation can result in better expected economic performance than the deterministic formulation, and that NGBD is more efficient than a state-of-the-art global optimization solver. The second example shows that the integration of piecewise convex relaxations can improve the efficiency of NGBD by at least an order of magnitude.

Xiang Li; Paul I. Barton

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

112

Modeling TechnologyModeling Technology Innovation:Innovation: Uncertainties inUncertainties in  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

environmental technologies (e.g., advanced power plants with carbon capture and storage) in energy- economic control systems used at coal-fired power plants · No "natural" markets for these technologies; major models used for climate/energy policy analysis? · What are the uncertainties associated with use

113

ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

ECONOMIC REPORT ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT Economic Report of the President | 3 ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To the Congress of the United States: Over the past 6 years of economic expansion, the American economy has proven its strength and resilience. Job creation grew uninterrupted for a record period of time, inflation remains moderate, unemployment is low, and productivity continues to grow. The economy is built upon a strong foundation, with deep and sophisticated capital markets, flexible labor markets, low taxes, and open trade and investment policies. Americans should be confident about the long-term strength of our economy, but our economy is undergoing a period of uncertainty, and there are heightened risks to our near-term economic growth. To insure against

114

Climate Change Economics and Policy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AFRICA COLLEGE Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Adapting to Climate Change 3 CLIMATE...Furthermore, there is strong scientific evidence that climate change will disrupt the global economy, environment and society a growing population in a changing climate is, therefore, a major global challenge. Changes in climate

Romano, Daniela

115

Engineering Economics  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The purpose of these review notes is to provide a refresher in the major topics of Engineering Economics. Engineering economics deals with determining from a number of technically acceptable alternatives the o...

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

116

Image Segmentation and Uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

From the Publisher:Presents the first unified theory of image segmentation, written by the winners of the 1985 Pattern Recognition Society medal. Until now, image processing algorithms have always been beset by uncertainties, no one method proving completely ...

Roland 1949- Wilson; Michael Spann

1988-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

Evaluating prediction uncertainty  

SciTech Connect

The probability distribution of a model prediction is presented as a proper basis for evaluating the uncertainty in a model prediction that arises from uncertainty in input values. Determination of important model inputs and subsets of inputs is made through comparison of the prediction distribution with conditional prediction probability distributions. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling and variance ratios are used in estimation of the distributions and in construction of importance indicators. The assumption of a linear relation between model output and inputs is not necessary for the indicators to be effective. A sequential methodology which includes an independent validation step is applied in two analysis applications to select subsets of input variables which are the dominant causes of uncertainty in the model predictions. Comparison with results from methods which assume linearity shows how those methods may fail. Finally, suggestions for treating structural uncertainty for submodels are presented.

McKay, M.D. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

Orifice flow measurement uncertainty  

SciTech Connect

A computer program is now available from Union Carbide that evaluates the total flow uncertainty of orifice flowmeter systems. Tolerance values for every component in the system and the sensitivity of the measured flowrate to each component can be established using historical data and published hardware specifications. Knowing the tolerance and sensitivity values, a total measurement uncertainty can be estimated with a 95% confidence level. This computer program provides a powerful design tool to ensure correct component matching and total metering system optimization.

Samples, C.R.

1984-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

119

Local Impact, National Influence, Global Reach UC San Diego's  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

, Global Reach Impacting the Economy Overall Impact in San Diego County · Total economic impact of UC SanLocal Impact, National Influence, Global Reach UC San Diego's Economic Impact and Benefits in our Region and State Chancellor Marye Anne Fox #12;Local Impact, National Influence, Global Reach Economic

Russell, Lynn

120

Economic Report  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Transmitted to the Congress February 2008 Transmitted to the Congress February 2008 Together with the Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers Economic Report of the President Economic Report of the President For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800 ISBN 978-0-16-079822-1 Transmitted to the Congress February 2008 together with THE ANNUAL REPORT of the COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 2008 Fax: (202) 512-2104 Mail Stop: IDCC, Washington, DC 20402-0001 C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT ............................................. ANNUAL REPORT OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS* ...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Econ 126 syllabus Fall 2007 Prof. Bhattacharya Economics 126: Economics of Health and Medical Care  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

) "Economics, Values, and Health Care Reform," American Economic Review 86(1):1-24 · Arrow (1963) "Uncertainty by health economists. This class will provide an introduction to the health care system in the U.S. We will discuss some of the key concepts that health economists use to analyze health care markets. Finally, we

Ford, James

122

Benefits to the United States of Increasing Global Uptake of Clean Energy Technologies  

SciTech Connect

A previous report describes an opportunity for the United States to take leadership in efforts to transform the global energy system toward clean energy technologies (CET). An accompanying analysis to that report provides estimates of the economic benefits to the United States of such a global transformation on the order of several hundred billion dollars per year by 2050. This report describes the methods and assumptions used in developing those benefit estimates. It begins with a summary of the results of the analysis based on an updated and refined model completed since the publication of the previous report. The framework described can be used to estimate the economic benefits to the U.S. of coordinated global action to increase the uptake of CETs worldwide. Together with a Monte Carlo simulation engine, the framework can be used to develop plausible ranges for benefits, taking into account the large uncertainty in the driving variables and economic parameters. The resulting estimates illustrate that larger global clean energy markets offer significant opportunities to the United States economy.

Kline, D.

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

123

[working paper] Regional Economic Capacity, Economic Shocks,  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 [working paper] Regional Economic Capacity, Economic Shocks, and Economic that makes them more likely to resist economic shocks or to recover quickly from of resilience capacity developed by Foster (2012) is related to economic resilience

Sekhon, Jasjeet S.

124

Expressing scientific uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......situations where the risk probabilities are not...proposition. Keywords: risk uncertainty; standards...sums of money and in political controversies with major...misdemeanors' is inherently a political process in which the...flight, minimizing the risk of harm to the officer......

Charles Weiss

2003-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

125

Action Under Uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......that agents actually plan by theorem proving...In Section 2, the standard dynamic logic account...properties desired in a plan are taken to be effectiveness...uncertainty 3.1 Review of epistemic logic...familiarity with the standard [3] representation...I assume that the plan constructors......

SAM STEEL

1994-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

126

Policy implications of uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...by T. N. Palmer and P. J. Hardaker Policy implications of uncertainty Chris Smith...to be enough for governments and public policy-makers to make sensible decisions about...difficult decisions with regard to public policy over the course of the next 20 or 30 years...

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

Refinery Planning under Uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The planning/scheduling of the supply chain under uncertainty is important in light of the ever-changing market conditions. ... Examples of the open-shop mode, such as the news vendor model26 in which the sales of holiday lights disappear after Christmas, for instance, can be found in the real world. ...

Wenkai Li; Chi-Wai Hui; Pu Li; An-Xue Li

2004-09-10T23:59:59.000Z

128

Communicating scientific uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...affect your preferred energy portfolio...approach asks experts to audit existing studies for...Conveying Uncertainty. An audit like that in Fig...them. For example, energy models often neglect social factors (e...electricity pilot studies . Energy Policy 62 : 401 409...

Baruch Fischhoff; Alex L. Davis

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

A new uncertainty principle  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

By examining two counterexamples to the existing theory, it is shown, with mathematical rigor, that as far as scattered particles are concerned the true distribution function is in principle not determinable (indeterminacy principle or uncertainty principle) while the average distribution function over each predetermined finite velocity solid-angle element can be calculated.

C. Y. Chen

2008-12-23T23:59:59.000Z

130

Benefits of dealing with uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories: introduction  

SciTech Connect

The assessment of greenhouse gases emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on the international political and scientific agendas. Growing international concern and cooperation regarding the climate change problem have increased the need for policy-oriented solutions to the issue of uncertainty in, and related to, inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The approaches to addressing uncertainty discussed in this Special Issue reflect attempts to improve national inventories, not only for their own sake but also from a wider, systems analytical perspective-a perspective that seeks to strengthen the usefulness of national inventories under a compliance and/or global monitoring and reporting framework. These approaches demonstrate the benefits of including inventory uncertainty in policy analyses. The authors of the contributed papers show that considering uncertainty helps avoid situations that can, for example, create a false sense of certainty or lead to invalid views of subsystems. This may eventually prevent related errors from showing up in analyses. However, considering uncertainty does not come for free. Proper treatment of uncertainty is costly and demanding because it forces us to make the step from 'simple to complex' and only then to discuss potential simplifications. Finally, comprehensive treatment of uncertainty does not offer policymakers quick and easy solutions. The authors of the papers in this Special Issue do, however, agree that uncertainty analysis must be a key component of national GHG inventory analysis. Uncertainty analysis helps to provide a greater understanding and better science helps us to reduce and deal with uncertainty. By recognizing the importance of identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in ongoing discussions regarding GHG inventories and accounting for climate change. The 17 papers in this Special Issue deal with many aspects of analyzing and dealing with uncertainty in emissions estimates.

Jonas, Matthias [IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria; Winiwarter, Wilfried [AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Vienna, Austria; Marland, Gregg [ORNL; White, Thomas [Canadian Forest Service; Nahorski, Zbigniew [Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Science, Warsaw, Poland; Bun, Rostyslav [Lviv Polytech National University, Lviv, Ukraine

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

UNFINISHED BUSINESS: The Economics of The Kyoto Protocol  

SciTech Connect

The Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) was completed on the morning of December 11, 1997, following over two years of negotiations. The product of these deliberations is a complex and incomplete document knitting together the diversity of interests and perspectives represented by the more than 150 delegations. Because the document is complex, its implications are not immediately obvious. If it enters into force, the Kyoto Protocol will have far-reaching implications for all nations--both nations with obligations under the Protocol and those without obligations. National energy systems, and the world's energy system, could be forever changed. In this paper the authors develop an assessment of the energy and economic implications of achieving the goals of the Kyoto Protocol. They find that many of the details of the Protocol that remain to be worked out introduce critical uncertainties affecting the cost of compliance. There are also a variety of uncertainties that further complicate the analysis. These include future non-CO{sub 2} greenhouse gas emissions and the cost of their mitigation. Other uncertainties include the resolution of negotiations to establish rules for determining and allocating land-use emissions rights, mechanisms for Annex 1 trading, and participation by non-Annex 1 members in the Clean Development Mechanism. In addition, there are economic uncertainties, such as the behavior of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union in supplying emissions credits under Annex 1 trading. These uncertainties in turn could affect private sector investments in anticipation of the Protocol's entrance into force. The longer the nature of future obligations remains unclear, the less able decision makers will be to incorporate these rules into their investment decisions. They find that the cost of implementing the Protocol in the US can vary by more than an order of magnitude. The marginal cost could be as low as $26 per tonne of carbon if a global system of emissions mitigation could be quickly and effectively implemented. But it could also exceed $250 per tonne of carbon if the US must meet its emissions limitations entirely through domestic actions, and if mitigation obligations are not adequately anticipated by decision-makers.

JA Edmonds; CN MacCracken; RD Sands; SH Kim

2000-07-06T23:59:59.000Z

132

ECON331, Fall 2010 ECON 331: ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS (Fall 2010)  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. An Economic Analysis of Aspects of Petroleum and Military Security in the Persian Gulf. Contemporary Economic Policy, 19(4): 371-381, October. Chapman D. and N. Khanna, 2006. The Persian Gulf, Global Oil Resou

Suzuki, Masatsugu

133

31 - Economizers  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Publisher Summary Economizers for boilers have been available for nearly 150 years, almost as long as boilers themselves. For modem shell boilers, high efficiencies have made it difficult to justify the use of an economizer, the final decision being based in terms of payback period, which is also dependent on fuel prices. Watertube boilers need an economizer section in the gas passes in order to obtain satisfactory efficiency. The economizer is integrated into the overall design, normally between the convective super-heater and the air heater if fitted. In shell boilers with a working pressure of between 7 and 17 bar the temperature of the mass of water in the boiler is typically in the range of 170-210°C. Allowing for a temperature difference of 30-50°C between the exhaust gases and the water temperature, the boiler exit gas temperature cannot be economically reduced beneath about 200-260°C, dependent on the operating pressure. It becomes necessary to modify the process principles to achieve further heat utilization and recovery. By using an economizer this is done by conducting the feedwater supply to the economizer wherein the exhaust gas passes over tubes carrying the feedwater. The feedwater represents a further cooling medium for the exhaust gases and provides the potential for the extra heat utilization.

Colin French

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

134

E000308 economic development and the environment Economic development in low-income economies is initially highly resource-  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

E000308 economic development and the environment Economic development in low-income economies sources of emissions that contribute to global climate change. Economic development depends on sustained drawdowns, may affect economic development in a dynamic interaction. This feedback is hard to quantify

Coxhead, Ian

135

FINANCIAL ECONOMICS RESOURCE ECONOMICS AND POLICY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

ECONOMICS FINANCIAL ECONOMICS RESOURCE ECONOMICS AND POLICY Program of Study The School of Economics at the University of Maine provides excellent opportunities for graduate students to study applied economics, financial economics, and policy analysis. The School of Economics administers the Master

Thomas, Andrew

136

Life Cycle Regulation of Transportation Fuels: Uncertainty and its Policy Implications  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2.3.2. Methodological issues with LCA . . .2.3.3. Attributional versus consequential LCA 2.3.4.Economic Input-Output LCA . . . . . 2.4. Uncertainty in

Plevin, Richard Jay

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

137

Management strategies for Indonesian rubber production under yield and price uncertainty: a bioeconomic analysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A simplified version of the BEAM Rubber Agroforestry Model is embedded in a dynamic economic model to examine the impact of uncertainty about prices and climate on decision variables. Solutions, in terms of op...

R. Purnamasari; O. Cacho; P. Simmons

138

Global Health Seminar Series  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Bay Area Global Health Seminar Series Monday, January 27, 2014 2:30pm ­ 4:00pm (Reception to follow at the Center for Health Policy and the Woods Institute for the Environment. He studies how economic, political, and natural environments affect population health in developing countries using a mix of experimental

Klein, Ophir

139

Monetizing stranded gas : economic valuation of GTL and LNG projects.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Globally, there are significant quantities of natural gas reserves that lie economically or physically stranded from markets. Options to monetize such reserves include Gas to (more)

Black, Brodie Gene, 1986-

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

140

ECONOMIC DISPATCH  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

ECONOMIC DISPATCH ECONOMIC DISPATCH OF ELECTRIC GENERATION CAPACITY A REPORT TO CONGRESS AND THE STATES PURSUANT TO SECTIONS 1234 AND 1832 OF THE ENERGY POLICY ACT OF 2005 United States Department of Energy February 2007 ECONOMIC DISPATCH OF ELECTRIC GENERATION CAPACITY A REPORT TO CONGRESS AND THE STATES PURSUANT TO SECTIONS 1234 AND 1832 OF THE ENERGY POLICY ACT OF 2005 Sections 1234 and 1832 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct) 1 direct the U.S. Department of Energy (the Department, or DOE) to: 1) Study the procedures currently used by electric utilities to perform economic dispatch; 2) Identify possible revisions to those procedures to improve the ability of non-utility generation resources to offer their output for sale for the purpose of inclusion in

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Challenges in the face of uncertainty  

SciTech Connect

Opinions of the Interim Director of the Global Environment Program of Cornell University are presented. The focus is on obstacles to the implementation by policymakers of actions needed to address climate change. A major obstacle preventing action is stated to be the uncertainties involved in climate predictions. It is proposed that rapid, comprehensive action is required to meet the challenges posed by climate predictions, regardless of the inherent uncertainties. Aspects of future climate which are relatively certain are discussed, including continued greenhouse effects for the next several decades, a greater warming effect at higher altitudes, more warming in the winter, and linkage of all other aspects of climate to temperature changes. Aspects of climatic change which pose particular problems regarding predictability are also discussed.

Oglesby, R.T. [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)

1992-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

142

Cognitive neuroscience: Decision amid uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... their task, the less-than-perfect reliability of a cue) and unexpected uncertainty (a surreptitious switch in the relevant cue). They propose that information about these forms of uncertainty ...

Jonathan D. Cohen; Gary Aston-Jones

2005-07-27T23:59:59.000Z

143

Integrated Economic and Climate Projections for Impact Assessment  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We designed scenarios for impact assessment that explicitly address policy choices and uncertainty in climate response. Economic projections and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions for the no climate policy scenario ...

Paltsev, Sergey

144

Feedstock Economics for Global Steam Crackers  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

, butane, wide range naphtha, and atmospheric gas oil. The 10 regions considered in the study are the US Gulf Coast, Brazil, Western Canada, China, Indonesia, Japan, Saudi Arabia, 54 South Korea, Taiwan. and West Ger-many. lhe business climate... fabricated, while those in Saudi Arabia have a hJgh cont~nt of foreign shop fabrication into modules, and local assembly of the various modules. Location Factor Country 0.85 South k'orea 0.90 Taiwan 0.96 West Germany 1.00 US Gulf Coast 1.12 Japan...

McCormack, G.; Pavone, T.

145

Economics of Defense in a Globalized World  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Kahn, H. (1959), On Thermonuclear War (Princeton Universityless grave than thermonuclear annihilation. That is, anfrom the threat of thermonuclear war deserves emphasis. Even

MCGUIRE, MARTIN C

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

Is Economic Volatility Detrimental to Global Sustainability?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

, with the impacts exacerbated in some subsamples such as higher en- ergy intensity countries and lower trade share economy as a key factor influencing the low carbon development path. The finding is signifi- cant/huangyf.htm. 1 #12;1 Introduction In the 1990s the world economy grew at an averaged rate of 2.7 percent

Matthews, Adrian

147

Forestry and global warming: the physical and policy linkages  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The potential for biotically mitigating global warming is receiving a great deal of policy and technical attention around the world. Elements of the political community are drawn to the notion that land?use patterns can be modified more easily than energy consumption patterns and some modelers suggest that the potential for storing carbon in terrestrial ecosystems is very large. Most work to date however uses only physical criteria in estimating how much land might be available for reforestation. Accounting for social and economic constraints is much more difficult resulting in daunting uncertainty about what could actually be accomplished. Furthermore our relative ignorance of the functioning of the global carbon cycle makes attempting to manipulate it for human purposes questionable at best. Nevertheless there are many reasons besides global warming to pursue a radical restructuring of land?use patterns around the world. Such a restructuring should be undertaken in conjunction with many other measures to slow global warming most immediately in the energy sector.

M. C. Trexler

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

An Economic Look Backward, An Economic Look Forward  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

's largest industrial parks-- Edison, with Raritan Center and Heller Park, and the Turnpike Exit 8A submarket t is now time to assess New Jersey's economic performance in 2006. This will consist of two parts? By Sachiyo Asakawa and James Kerns, Sales Associate­Industrial Division This new global economy is a major

149

Thermo-economic Analysis of Retrofitting an Existing Coal-Fired Power Plant with Solar Heat.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

?? At a time when global environmental change is posing a growing challenge to the worlds economy and creating uncertainties to livelihood of its inhabitants, (more)

Shimeles, Surafel

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

Electoral Competition, Political Uncertainty and Policy Insulation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Uncertainty and Policy Insulation Horn, Murray. 1995. TheUncertainty and Policy Insulation United States Congress.UNCERTAINTY AND POLICY INSULATION Rui J. P. de Figueiredo,

de Figueiredo, Rui J. P. Jr.

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

What economics courses are there? Economics and International Development  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economics Essentials What economics courses are there? BA Economics Economics and International Development Economics and International Relations Economics and Politics Philosophy, Politics and Economics (PPE) (p103) BSc Economics Economics and Management Studies Finance and Business (p46) Mathematics

Sussex, University of

152

E-Print Network 3.0 - address global challenges Sample Search...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Global Institute of Sustainability. Our... spectrum of global challenges, including: energy, materials, and technology; water quality and scarcity... environmental, economic, and...

153

NREL GIS Data: Global Offshore Wind - Datasets - OpenEI Datasets  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

NREL GIS Data: Global ... Dataset Activity Stream NREL GIS Data: Global Offshore Wind GIS data for offshore wind speed (meterssecond). Specified to Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ)....

154

Global energy demand to 2060  

SciTech Connect

The projection of global energy demand to the year 2060 is of particular interest because of its relevance to the current greenhouse concerns. The long-term growth of global energy demand in the time scale of climatic change has received relatively little attention in the public discussion of national policy alternatives. The sociological, political, and economic issues have rarely been mentioned in this context. This study emphasizes that the two major driving forces are global population growth and economic growth (gross national product per capita), as would be expected. The modest annual increases assumed in this study result in a year 2060 annual energy use of >4 times the total global current use (year 1986) if present trends continue, and >2 times with extreme efficiency improvements in energy use. Even assuming a zero per capita growth for energy and economics, the population increase by the year 2060 results in a 1.5 times increase in total annual energy use.

Starr, C. (Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA (USA))

1989-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (Global Fund), founded in 2002, has become the largest  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

, San Francisco · The change in total allocations to the APMEN coun- tries that are eligible for GlobalMAY 2014 1 Background The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (Global Fund, amidst global economic stress, the Board of the Global Fund called for a structural reformation

Mullins, Dyche

156

The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (Global Fund), founded in 2002, has become the largest  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Fund allotments to the eliminating countries accounted for 7% of the total Global Fund malariaMAY 2014 1 Background The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (Global Fund, amidst global economic stress, the Board of the Global Fund called for a structural reformation

Mullins, Dyche

157

Quantification of the impact of climate uncertainty on regional air quality  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Uncertainties in calculated impacts of climate forecasts on future regional air quality are investigated using downscaled MM5 meteorological fields from the NASA GISS and MIT IGSM global models and the CMAQ model in 2050 ...

Liao, K.-J.

158

Role of nuclear fusion in future energy systems and the environment under future uncertainties  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Debates about whether or not to invest heavily in nuclear fusion as a future innovative energy option have been made within the context of energy technology development strategies. This is because the prospects for nuclear fusion are quite uncertain and the investments therefore carry the risk of quite large regrets, even though investment is needed in order to develop the technology. The timeframe by which nuclear fusion could become competitive in the energy market has not been adequately studied, nor has roles of the nuclear fusion in energy systems and the environment. The present study has two objectives. One is to reveal the conditions under which nuclear fusion could be introduced economically (hereafter, we refer to such introductory conditions as breakeven prices) in future energy systems. The other objective is to evaluate the future roles of nuclear fusion in energy systems and in the environment. Here we identify three roles that nuclear fusion will take on when breakeven prices are achieved: (i) a portion of the electricity market in 2100, (ii) reduction of annual global total energy systems cost, and (iii) mitigation of carbon tax (shadow price of carbon) under CO2 constraints. Future uncertainties are key issues in evaluating nuclear fusion. Here we treated the following uncertainties: energy demand scenarios, introduction timeframe for nuclear fusion, capacity projections of nuclear fusion, CO2 target in 2100, capacity utilization ratio of options in energy/environment technologies, and utility discount rates. From our investigations, we conclude that the presently designed nuclear fusion reactors may be ready for economical introduction into energy systems beginning around 20502060, and we can confirm that the favorable introduction of the reactors would reduce both the annual energy systems cost and the carbon tax (the shadow price of carbon) under a CO2 concentration constraint.

Koji Tokimatsu; Junichi Fujino; Satoshi Konishi; Yuichi Ogawa; Kenji Yamaji

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

159

Economical Desalination  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... DESALINATION as a source of fresh water is well established technically. Now, like nuclear power ... and most important, conclusion is that flash distillation, so far the market leader in desalination equipment, is unlikely to be economic for base load production of fresh water in ...

1968-06-08T23:59:59.000Z

160

Global Security  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Applications Global Security science-innovationassetsimagesicon-science.jpg Global Security National security depends on science and technology. The United States relies on...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis to Burnup Estimates on ADS using the ACAB Code  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Within the scope of the Accelerator Driven System (ADS) concept for nuclear waste management applications the burnup uncertainty estimates due to uncertainty in the activation cross sections (XSs) are important regarding both the safety and the efficiency of the waste burning process. We have applied both sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo methodology to actinides burnup calculations in a lead?bismuth cooled subcritical ADS. The sensitivity analysis is used to identify the reaction XSs and the dominant chains that contribute most significantly to the uncertainty. The Monte Carlo methodology gives the burnup uncertainty estimates due to the synergetic/global effect of the complete set of XS uncertainties. These uncertainty estimates are valuable to assess the need of any experimental or systematic re?evaluation of some uncertainty XSs for ADS.

O. Cabellos; J. Sanz; A. Rodrguez; E. Gonzlez; M. Embid; F. Alvarez; S. Reyes

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

162

Discussion Papers in Economics Department of Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Discussion Papers in Economics Department of Economics University of Surrey Guildford Surrey GU2 7 participants at Aberdeen, Essex, LSE, UCL, the Paris School of Economics and from participants in the 2007 Royal Economic Society annual conference held in Warwick, the 2007 American Law and Economics

Doran, Simon J.

163

WARWICK ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT WARWICK ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

WARWICK ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT twenty thirteen- fourteen Prospectus #12;WARWICK ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT-being worldwide." "Economics is the issue of the times in which we live." Contents ninety-four The percent Inspirational instruction 11 Highlighted Research 13 Behavioural Economics 14 Development 16 Economic History 18

Davies, Christopher

164

Fuel economizer  

SciTech Connect

A fuel economizer device for use with an internal combustion engine fitted with a carburetor is disclosed. The fuel economizer includes a plate member which is mounted between the carburetor and the intake portion of the intake manifold. The plate member further has at least one aperture formed therein. One tube is inserted through the at least one aperture in the plate member. The one tube extends longitudinally in the passage of the intake manifold from the intake portion toward the exit portion thereof. The one tube concentrates the mixture of fuel and air from the carburetor and conveys the mixture of fuel and air to a point adjacent but spaced away from the inlet port of the internal combustion engine.

Zwierzelewski, V.F.

1984-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

165

Economic and policy implications of pandemic influenza.  

SciTech Connect

Pandemic influenza has become a serious global health concern; in response, governments around the world have allocated increasing funds to containment of public health threats from this disease. Pandemic influenza is also recognized to have serious economic implications, causing illness and absence that reduces worker productivity and economic output and, through mortality, robs nations of their most valuable assets - human resources. This paper reports two studies that investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic flu outbreak. Policy makers can use the growing number of economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. Experts recognize that pandemic influenza has serious global economic implications. The illness causes absenteeism, reduced worker productivity, and therefore reduced economic output. This, combined with the associated mortality rate, robs nations of valuable human resources. Policy makers can use economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. In this paper economists examine two studies which investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak. Resulting policy implications are also discussed. The research uses the Regional Economic Modeling, Inc. (REMI) Policy Insight + Model. This model provides a dynamic, regional, North America Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry-structured framework for forecasting. It is supported by a population dynamics model that is well-adapted to investigating macro-economic implications of pandemic influenza, including possible demand side effects. The studies reported in this paper exercise all of these capabilities.

Smith, Braeton J.; Starks, Shirley J.; Loose, Verne W.; Brown, Theresa Jean; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

166

The Global Grid  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper puts forward the vision that a natural future stage of the electricity network could be a grid spanning the whole planet and connecting most of the large power plants in the world: this is the Global Grid. The main driving force behind the Global Grid will be the harvesting of remote renewable sources, and its key infrastructure element will be the high capacity long transmission lines. Wind farms and solar power plants will supply load centers with green power over long distances. This paper focuses on the introduction of the concept, showing that a globally interconnected network can be technologically feasible and economically competitive. We further highlight the multiple opportunities emerging from a global electricity network such as smoothing the renewable energy supply and electricity demand, reducing the need for bulk storage, and reducing the volatility of the energy prices. We also discuss possible investment mechanisms and operating schemes. Among others, we envision in such a system a global power market and the establishment of two new coordinating bodies, the Global Regulator and the Global System Operator.

Spyros Chatzivasileiadis; Damien Ernst; Gran Andersson

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

Economic analysis  

SciTech Connect

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

None

1980-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

168

How incorporating more data reduces uncertainty in recovery predictions  

SciTech Connect

From the discovery to the abandonment of a petroleum reservoir, there are many decisions that involve economic risks because of uncertainty in the production forecast. This uncertainty may be quantified by performing stochastic reservoir modeling (SRM); however, it is not practical to apply SRM every time the model is updated to account for new data. This paper suggests a novel procedure to estimate reservoir uncertainty (and its reduction) as a function of the amount and type of data used in the reservoir modeling. Two types of data are analyzed: conditioning data and well-test data. However, the same procedure can be applied to any other data type. Three performance parameters are suggested to quantify uncertainty. SRM is performed for the following typical stages: discovery, primary production, secondary production, and infill drilling. From those results, a set of curves is generated that can be used to estimate (1) the uncertainty for any other situation and (2) the uncertainty reduction caused by the introduction of new wells (with and without well-test data) into the description.

Campozana, F.P.; Lake, L.W.; Sepehrnoori, K. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

1997-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

Global climate feedbacks  

SciTech Connect

The important physical, chemical, and biological events that affect global climate change occur on a mesoscale -- requiring high spatial resolution for their analysis. The Department of Energy has formulated two major initiatives under the US Global Change Program: ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurements), and CHAMMP (Computer Hardware Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics). ARM is designed to use ground and air-craft based observations to document profiles of atmospheric composition, clouds, and radiative fluxes. With research and models of important physical processes, ARM will delineate the relationships between trace gases, aerosol and cloud structure, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, and will improve the parameterization of global circulation models. The present GCMs do not model important feedbacks, including those from clouds, oceans, and land processes. The purpose of this workshop is to identify such potential feedbacks, to evaluate the uncertainties in the feedback processes (and, if possible, to parameterize the feedback processes so that they can be treated in a GCM), and to recommend research programs that will reduce the uncertainties in important feedback processes. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases.

Manowitz, B.

1990-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

170

Biofuel Economics  

SciTech Connect

As concerns regarding increasing energy prices, global warming and renewable resources continue to grow, so has scientific discovery into agricultural biomass conversion. Plant Biomass Conversion addresses both the development of plant biomass and conversion technology, in addition to issues surrounding biomass conversion, such as the affect on water resources and soil sustainability. This book also offers a brief overview of the current status of the industry and examples of production plants being used in current biomass conversion efforts.

Klein-Marcuschamer, Daniel; Holmes, Brad; Simmons, Blake; Blanch, Harvey

2011-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

171

Uncertainty of forest carbon stock changes implications to the total uncertainty of GHG inventory of Finland  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Uncertainty analysis facilitates identification of the most important categories affecting greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory uncertainty and helps in prioritisation of ... . This paper presents an uncertainty analys...

S. Monni; M. Peltoniemi; T. Palosuo; A. Lehtonen; R. Mkip

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

172

Economic Growth Policies & Economic Growth Theory Influences.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

?? The aim of this thesis is to describe the presence of theories for economic growth in municipalities economic growth strategies, and to compare the (more)

Hallden, Sophie

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

Forthcoming in the inaugural issue of Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies China's Economic Growth After WTO Membership  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

speaking, the process of economic transition was unleashed in 1979 when the central government turned-state industrial enterprises in the rural areas. Finally, the process of economic globalization was crediblyForthcoming in the inaugural issue of Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies China

174

Ecological economizer  

SciTech Connect

This patent describes an engine economizer system adapted to supply an internal combustion engine with a heated air and water vapor mixture. It comprises a containment vessel, the vessel having: water level control means, an engine coolant fluid circuit, an engine lubricant circuit, an elongated air passage, air disbursement means, a water reservoir, air filter means, a vacuum aspiration port, and engine induction means associated with one of the carburetor and intake manifold and adapted to draw in the heated air and water vapor mixture by means of a hose connection to the aspiration port.

Peterson, E.M.

1992-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

175

Friday, 1 March 13 Living with global uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

16, Robert Costanza 1,17, Uno Svedin 1, Malin Falkenmark 1,18, Louise Karlberg 1,2, Robert W. Corell

Bristol, University of

176

Economic Impact Reporting Framework  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2007/08 November 2008 #12;#12;Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2007/08 #12;STFC Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2007/08 Contents: Introduction..............................................................................................................................................2 1: Overall Economic Impacts

177

Economic Impact Reporting Framework  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2008/09 #12;#12;Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2008/09 #12;STFC Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2008/09 Contents: Introduction..............................................................................................................................................2 1: Overall Economic Impacts

178

ERDC/CRRELTR-06-16 Propagation of Uncertainties in Sea Ice  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of the global heat bal- ance. This capability is attributed to the unique location of sea ice at the interface in the polar region has precipitated increased efforts to measure sea ice thickness as an index for global heatERDC/CRRELTR-06-16 Propagation of Uncertainties in Sea Ice Thickness Calculations from Basin

Geiger, Cathleen

179

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 September 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 September 8, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged about $77 per barrel in August 2010, very close to the July average, but $3 per barrel lower than projected in last month's Outlook. WTI spot prices averaged almost $82 per barrel over the first 10 days of August but then fell by $9 per barrel over the next 2 weeks as the market reacted to a series of reports of a stumbling economic recovery. EIA has lowered its average fourth quarter 2010 WTI spot price forecast to $77 per barrel, compared with $81 in last month's Outlook. WTI spot prices are projected to

180

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

April 2010 April 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 April 6, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $81 per barrel in March 2010, almost $5 per barrel above the prior month's average and $3 per barrel higher than forecast in last month's Outlook. Oil prices rose from a low this year of $71.15 per barrel on February 5 to $80 per barrel by the end of February, generally on news of robust economic and energy demand growth in non-OECD Asia and the Middle East, and held near $81 until rising to $85 at the start of April. EIA expects WTI prices to average above $81 per barrel this summer, slightly less that $81 for 2010 as a whole,

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

global | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

global global Dataset Summary Description GIS data for offshore wind speed (meters/second). Specified to Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ).Wind resource based on NOAA blended sea winds and monthly wind speed at 30km resolution, using a 0.11 wind sheer to extrapolate 10m - 90m. Annual average >= 10 months of data, no nulls. Source National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Date Released Unknown Date Updated Unknown Keywords GIS global NOAA NREL offshore wind wind speed Data application/zip icon Download Shapefile (zip, 18.5 MiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Some Review Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Time Period License License Other or unspecified, see optional comment below Comment Please cite NREL and NOAA Rate this dataset Usefulness of the metadata

182

WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2009 BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH College of Business and Economics West Virginia University #12;West Virginia Economic Outlook 2009 George W. Hammond, Associate Director, BBER, and Associate Professor of Economics West Virginia Economic Outlook 2009 is published

Mohaghegh, Shahab

183

Economics & Finance Degree options  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

98 Economics & Finance Degree options MA or BSc (Single Honours Degrees) Applied Economics Economics Financial Economics BA (International Honours Degree) Economics (See page 51) MA or BSc (Joint Honours Degrees) Economics and one of: Geography Management Mathematics MA (Joint Honours Degrees

Brierley, Andrew

184

MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) Version 2: Model Description and Baseline Evaluation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) is designed for analyzing the global environmental changes that may result from anthropogenic causes, quantifying the uncertainties associated with the projected changes, and ...

Sokolov, Andrei P.

185

Energy and environmental policy and electric utilities' choice under uncertain global warming  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The paper reviews and discusses uncertainty about global warming science, impact on society. It also discusses what assumptions have been made and how appropriate the assumptions in scenarios have been for estimating global ...

Takahashi, Masaki

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

Economic Growth and Development Economics 777  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic Growth and Development Economics 777 July 18, 2008 Fall Semester 2008 Professor J. H. Mc of economic growth and development. We will analyze several different growth models and look at some recent empirical research. Text The text for this course is: Economic Growth (2nd Edition) by Robert J. Barro

Almor, Amit

187

Evolving a global armaments logistics strategy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Few companies globally source and manage commercial transportation for frequent and high volumes of explosive cargo for the U. S. Department of Defense. U.S. regulations are strict and economically competitive options are ...

Peck, Nathan (Nathan W.)

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

Needed : a realistic strategy for global warming  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Through a brief look at the science and economics of climate, the authors show that if climate change turns out to be a serious threat, an effective response will require a substantial and very long-term global effort. ...

Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Schmalensee, Richard.

189

Contour Global L P | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

in under-served markets, such as that for renewable energy technologies and Combined Heat and Power (CHP), within developed economics. References: Contour Global L.P.1 This...

190

Global Energy: Supply, Demand, Consequences, Opportunities  

SciTech Connect

July 29, 2008 Berkeley Lab lecture: Arun Majumdar, Director of the Environmental Energy Technologies Division, discusses current and future projections of economic growth, population, and global energy demand and supply, and explores the implications of these trends for the environment.

Arun Majumdar

2008-08-14T23:59:59.000Z

191

Global Energy: Supply, Demand, Consequences, Opportunities  

ScienceCinema (OSTI)

July 29, 2008 Berkeley Lab lecture: Arun Majumdar, Director of the Environmental Energy Technologies Division, discusses current and future projections of economic growth, population, and global energy demand and supply, and explores the implications of these trends for the environment.

Arun Majumdar

2010-01-08T23:59:59.000Z

192

Predicting System Performance with Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

inexpensive way. We propose using Gaussian Processes for system performance predictions and explain the types of uncertainties included. As an example, we use a Gaussian Process to predict chilled water use and compare the results with Neural Network...

Yan, B.; Malkawi, A.

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

193

Uncertainty quantification for CO2 sequestration and enhanced oil recovery  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This study develops a statistical method to perform uncertainty quantification for understanding CO2 storage potential within an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) environment at the Farnsworth Unit of the Anadarko Basin in northern Texas. A set of geostatistical-based Monte Carlo simulations of CO2-oil-water flow and reactive transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for global sensitivity and statistical analysis of the major uncertainty metrics: net CO2 injection, cumulative oil production, cumulative gas (CH4) production, and net water injection. A global sensitivity and response surface analysis indicates that reservoir permeability, porosity, and thickness are the major intrinsic reservoir parameters that control net CO2 injection/storage and oil/gas recovery rates. The well spacing and the initial water saturation also have large impact on the oil/gas recovery rates. Further, this study has revealed key insights into the potential behavior and the operational parameters of CO2 sequestration at CO2-EOR s...

Dai, Zhenxue; Fessenden-Rahn, Julianna; Middleton, Richard; Pan, Feng; Jia, Wei; Lee, Si-Yong; McPherson, Brian; Ampomah, William; Grigg, Reid

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

194

Reducing Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About Light-Duty Diesel Reducing Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About Light-Duty Diesel 2002 DEER Conference...

195

PROBABILISTIC SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS WORKSHOP SUMMARY REPORT  

SciTech Connect

Stochastic or probabilistic modeling approaches are being applied more frequently in the United States and globally to quantify uncertainty and enhance understanding of model response in performance assessments for disposal of radioactive waste. This increased use has resulted in global interest in sharing results of research and applied studies that have been completed to date. This technical report reflects the results of a workshop that was held to share results of research and applied work related to performance assessments conducted at United States Department of Energy sites. Key findings of this research and applied work are discussed and recommendations for future activities are provided.

Seitz, R

2008-06-25T23:59:59.000Z

196

The transformation of modern electricity grids at the local and global scale into smart grids is at the core of sustainable economic, environmental and societal growth worldwide. This migration to more intelligent, user-friendly and responsive grids aroun  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

flows, the automatic management of power outages, and the integration of renewable energy sources is at the core of sustainable economic, environmental and societal growth worldwide. This migration to more intelligent, user-friendly and responsive grids around the world is in large part enabled by the development

Fang, Yuguang "Michael"

197

The Sustainable Global Energy Economy: Hydrogen or Silicon?  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A sustainable global silicon energy economy is proposed as a potential alternative to the hydrogen economy. This first visualization of a silicon energy economy is based on large-scale and carbon- ... uncertainti...

W. Earl Bardsley

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

198

Russia between transition and globalization Olga GARANINA  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Russia between transition and globalization Olga GARANINA PhD student University Pierre Mendes France of Grenoble (France) St Petersburg State University of Economics and Finance (Russia) Mailing the beginning of the transition. We study the politico-economic configuration in Russia in terms of (i) its

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

199

Sensitivity of Climate Change Projections to Uncertainties in the Estimates of Observed Changes in Deep-Ocean Heat Content  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The MIT 2D climate model is used to make probabilistic projections for changes in global mean surface temperature and for thermosteric sea level rise under a variety of forcing scenarios. The uncertainties in climate ...

Sokolov, Andrei P.

200

Spatial pattern and uncertainty of soil carbon and nitrogen in a subtropical savanna landscape in southern Texas  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

plants could have impacts on regional and global biogeochemistry. To understand large-scale ecological and policy implications of woody invasion, it is critical to understand the spatial pattern and uncertainty of soil C and N and their relationship...

Liu, Feng

2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

CSUF Economic Outlook and Forecasts MidYear Update -April 2013  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CSUF Economic Outlook and Forecasts MidYear Update - April 2013 Anil Puri & Mira Farka Mihaylo College of Business and Economics California State University, Fullerton U.S. Economic Outlook to the forecast and a are-up in the region can easily derail the global economic recovery. Nonetheless

de Lijser, Peter

202

Climate Extremes, Uncertainty and Impacts Climate Change Challenge: The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Climate Extremes, Uncertainty and Impacts Climate Change Challenge: The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, AR4) has resulted in a wider acceptance of global climate change climate extremes and change impacts. Uncertainties in process studies, climate models, and associated

203

POLITICAL ECONOMYPOLITICAL ECONOMYPOLITICAL ECONOMY This major explores the intersection of economics with politics in domestic and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

POLITICAL ECONOMYPOLITICAL ECONOMYPOLITICAL ECONOMY This major explores the intersection of economics with politics in domestic and international contexts. It prepares students for engagement with global and regional questions that require analysis of economic and political causes and consequences

Krylov, Anna I.

204

RUMINATIONS ON NDA MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY COMPARED TO DA UNCERTAINTY  

SciTech Connect

It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

2010-06-17T23:59:59.000Z

205

Global Security  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

nonpartisan organization with a mission to strengthen global security by reducing the risk of use and preventing the spread of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons and to...

206

Joint Global Change Research Institute | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Global Change Research Institute Global Change Research Institute Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Joint Global Change Research Institute Name Joint Global Change Research Institute Agency/Company /Organization Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Sector Energy, Land Focus Area Energy Efficiency Topics Policies/deployment programs, Resource assessment, Pathways analysis Website http://www.globalchange.umd.ed References Global Change Research Institute [1] Abstract The Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) houses an interdisciplinary team dedicated to understanding the problems of global climate change and their potential solutions. Joint Institute staff bring decades of experience and expertise to bear in science, technology, economics, and policy. "The Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) houses an

207

Energy Crossroads: Global Climate Change | Environmental Energy  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Global Climate Change Global Climate Change Suggest a Listing Best Global Warming Articles Global Warming Articles provides facts about the causes, effects and answers to global warming; the environment; energy conservation, climate change and more. Ecolytics As emissions requirements, climate change, financial markets, and risk management become increasingly interconnected, organizations are left with critical choices regarding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions management. Ecolytics(tm), a comprehensive web-based software tool, can help organizations in the navigation of this complex area by providing an effective cataloging, strategic planning, economic analysis, and risk management solution. Enviro$en$e Funded by the Environmental Protection Agency and the Strategic

208

Using NASA Remote Sensing Data to Reduce Uncertainty of Land-Use Transitions in  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

NASA Remote Sensing Data to Reduce Uncertainty of Land-Use Transitions in NASA Remote Sensing Data to Reduce Uncertainty of Land-Use Transitions in Global Carbon-Climate Models: Data Management Plan L. Chini, G.C. Hurtt, M. Hansen, and P. Potapov Department of Geography University of Maryland The following Data Management Plan was part of the NASA ROSES 2012 Proposal Using NASA Remote Sensing Data to Reduce Uncertainty of Land-Use Transitions in Global Carbon- Climate Models (summary) submitted to the Terrestrial Ecology Program. It is presented as an example plan. Data Management Plan The proposed project will generate important new datasets of remote-sensing-based land-use transitions and their inherent uncertainty. Our plan for managing these datasets includes quality assessment, long-term archiving, and data sharing and dissemination (along with documentation

209

Regional, Economic, and Environmental Implications of Dual Ethanol Technologies in Brazil  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Climate change, food security, and energy efficiency have become universal challenges for global economic development and environmental conservation that demand in-depth multidisciplinary research. Biofuels have emerged ...

Guerrero Compean, Roberto

210

Regional, economic, and environmental effects of traditional and biotechnologically enhanced ethanol production processes in Brazil  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Climate change, food security, and energy efficiency have become universal challenges for global economic development and environmental conservation that demand in-depth multidisciplinary research. Biofuels have emerged ...

Guerrero Compen, Roberto

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

211

Chapter 31 - The Economics of Recycling  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Recycling is generally considered an important strategy for alleviating the pressures of society on the environment while creating employment and attracting investments. In recent years, many countries have experienced large increases in recycling. This chapter aims to identify the main economic drivers of recycling, address the economic effects of recycling-related activities, and demonstrate the effectiveness of economic policies promoting recycling. The chapter demonstrates how recycling takes place in a volatile, dynamic, and globalizing world, which complicates the projections of future developments in the recycling sector. Moreover, the chapter describes which private and external costs of recycling-related activities need to be taken into account and how these effects can be valued in economic terms. Finally, the most important economic instruments to promote recycling are identified and explained.

Pieter van Beukering; Onno Kuik; Frans Oosterhuis

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

Supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from Australia's agricultural land under global change  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Global agroecosystems can contribute to both climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation, and market mechanisms provide a highly prospective means of achieving these outcomes. However, the ability of markets to motivate the supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from agricultural land is uncertain, especially given the future changes in environmental, economic, and social drivers. We quantified the potential supply of these services from the intensive agricultural land of Australia from 2013 to 2050 under four global outlooks in response to a carbon price and biodiversity payment scheme. Each global outlook specified emissions pathways, climate, food demand, energy price, and carbon price modeled using the Global Integrated Assessment Model (GIAM). Using a simplified version of the Land Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, economic returns to agriculture, carbon plantings, and environmental plantings were calculated each year. The supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services was then quantified given potential land use change under each global outlook, and the sensitivity of the results to key parameters was assessed. We found that carbon supply curves were similar across global outlooks. Sharp increases in carbon sequestration supply occurred at carbon prices exceeding 50$tCO2?1 in 2015 and exceeding 65$tCO2?1 in 2050. Based on GIAM-modeled carbon prices, little carbon sequestration was expected at 2015 under any global outlook. However, at 2050 expected carbon supply under each outlook differed markedly, ranging from 0 to 189MtCO2yr?1. Biodiversity services of 3.32% of the maximum may be achieved in 2050 for a 1$B investment under median scenario settings. We conclude that a carbon market can motivate supply of substantial carbon sequestration but only modest amounts of biodiversity services from agricultural land. A complementary biodiversity payment can synergistically increase the supply of biodiversity services but will not provide much additional carbon sequestration. The results were sensitive to global drivers, especially the carbon price, and the domestic drivers of adoption hurdle rate and agricultural productivity. The results can inform the design of an effective national policy and institutional portfolio addressing the dual objectives of climate change and biodiversity conservation that is robust to future uncertainty in both national and global drivers.

B.A. Bryan; M. Nolan; T.D. Harwood; J.D. Connor; J. Navarro-Garcia; D. King; D.M. Summers; D. Newth; Y. Cai; N. Grigg; I. Harman; N.D. Crossman; M.J. Grundy; J.J. Finnigan; S. Ferrier; K.J. Williams; K.A. Wilson; E.A. Law; S. Hatfield-Dodds

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

Experimental Uncertainties (Errors) Sources of Experimental Uncertainties (Experimental Errors)  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the preparation of the lab report. A calculator should 1. Bevington, P. R., Data Reduction and Error Analysis for the Physical Sciences, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1969. 2. Taylor, J. R., An introduction to uncertainty analysis in the lab. In this laboratory, we keep to a very simple form of error analysis, our purpose being more

Mukasyan, Alexander

214

Data uncertainty impact in radiotoxicity evaluation connected to EFR and IRF systems  

SciTech Connect

Time-dependent sensitivity techniques, which have been used in the past for standard reactor applications, have been adapted to calculate the impact of data uncertainties in radiotoxicity evaluations. The methodology has been applied to different strategies of radioactive waste management connected with the EFR and IFR reactor fuel cycles. Results are provided in terms of sensitivity coefficients to basic data (cross sections and decay constants), and uncertainties on global radiotoxicity at different times of storing after discharge.

Palmiotti, G.; Salvatores, M. [CEA Centre d`Etudes Nucleaires de Cadarache, 13 - Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France). Direction des Reacteurs Nucleaires; Hill, R.N. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)

1993-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Really Bene?t From Global Warming? Accounting for IrrigationR. , The Economics of Global Warming, Washington, D.C. :1992. , The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture:

Schlenker, Wolfram; Hanemann, W. Michael; Fisher, Anthony C.

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

216

Global problems and global science  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...the facts, and the remaining uncertainties, about...problem of greenhouse gas emissions; it is...reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, especially...solar panels and wind turbines to developing countries...35 7.5 1 natural gas 21 39 18 38 coal...with the average life expectancy for a...

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Impact of orifice metering uncertainties  

SciTech Connect

In a recent utility study, attributed 38% of its unaccounted-for UAF gas to orifice metering uncertainty biasing caused by straightening vanes. How this was determined and how this applied to the company's orifice meters is described. Almost all (97%) of the company's UAF gas was found to be attributed to identifiable accounting procedures, measurement problems, theft and leakage.

Stuart, J.W. (Pacific Gas and Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (USA))

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

218

Social, Economic and Cultural Overview and Assessment  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Global Practices Anthony Charles* Marina Winterbottom Lisette Wilson Sonja Mills * Environmental Studies. Winterbottom, L. Wilson and S. Mills (2007). Social, Economic and Cultural Overview and Assessment for Ocean of Integrated Management Plans for Large Ocean Management Areas (LOMAs), requires attention to both ecosystem

Charles, Anthony

219

Tennessee Business and economic ouTlook  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Director and Project Director Center for Business and Economic Research Prepared by the Center for Business. Murray, Associate Director and Project Director Donald J. Bruce, Associate Professor LeAnn Luna the worst may be over for the banking sector, global stock markets remain a mess. And the real economy

Tennessee, University of

220

2014 REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2014 REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK #12;2014 REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2014 Overview The Cincinnati USA Partnership for Economic Development and the Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce are pleased to present the 2014 Regional Economic Outlook. This report was prepared by the Cincinnati USA Partnership's Regional

Boyce, Richard L.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Economics Department Mission Statement  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economics Department Mission Statement The mission of the Economics Department at the University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown is to develop the ability of our students to understand economic concepts, and in public policy. The central goals of an education in economics are to acquire: -- an understanding of how

Jiang, Huiqiang

222

THE GLOBAL NUCLEAR ENERGY PARTNERSHIP:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

GLOBAL NUCLEAR ENERGY PARTNERSHIP: GLOBAL NUCLEAR ENERGY PARTNERSHIP: Greater Energy Security in a Cleaner, Safer World The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) is a comprehensive strategy to increase U.S. and global energy security, encourage clean development around the world, reduce the risk of nuclear proliferation, and improve the environment. A plentiful, reliable supply of energy is the cornerstone of sustained economic growth and prosperity. Nuclear power is the only proven technology that can provide abundant supplies of base load electricity reliably and without air pollution or emissions of greenhouse gasses. In order to help meet growing demand for energy at home and encourage the growth of prosperity around the globe, GNEP provides for the safe, extensive expansion of clean nuclear power.

223

Economic effects of peak oil  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Assuming that global oil production peaked, this paper uses scenario analysis to show the economic effects of a possible supply shortage and corresponding rise in oil prices in the next decade on different sectors in Germany and other major economies such as the US, Japan, China, the OPEC or Russia. Due to the price-inelasticity of oil demand the supply shortage leads to a sharp increase in oil prices in the second scenario, with high effects on GDP comparable to the magnitude of the global financial crises in 2008/09. Oil exporting countries benefit from high oil prices, whereas oil importing countries are negatively affected. Generally, the effects in the third scenario are significantly smaller than in the second, showing that energy efficiency measures and the switch to renewable energy sources decreases the countries' dependence on oil imports and hence reduces their vulnerability to oil price shocks on the world market.

Christian Lutz; Ulrike Lehr; Kirsten S. Wiebe

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

Uncertainty in Future Carbon Emissions: A Preliminary Exploration Mort D. Webster  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Uncertainty in Future Carbon Emissions: A Preliminary Exploration Mort D. Webster Abstract of economic-energy models are used to project future carbon emissions under various policy scenarios. Due distributions of carbon emissions from the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model. From the specific

225

Master in Advanced Economics, curriculum Economic analysis Master in Advanced Economics, curriculum Economic analysis aims to provide a broad education  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Master in Advanced Economics, curriculum Economic analysis Master in Advanced Economics, curriculum Economic analysis aims to provide a broad education in the fields of methods, techniques and professional that work into European and International areas. Economic analysis curriculum especially focuses

Di Pillo, Gianni

226

Dynamic Analysis of Global Copper Flows. Global Stocks, Postconsumer Material Flows, Recycling Indicators, and Uncertainty Evaluation  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Thus, we compared Gaussian distributions to log-normal, ?2, and Weibull distributions, and obtained similar results to the analysis based on varying the standard deviation of the Gaussian distributions: The effect of changing the shape (functional form) of the lifetime distributions is small compared to the effect of changes in average lifetimes. ... Rosenau-Tornow, D.; Buchholz, P.; Riemann, A.; Wagner, M.Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. ...

Simon Glser; Marcel Soulier; Luis A. Tercero Espinoza

2013-05-13T23:59:59.000Z

227

Argonne CNM Highlight: Deciphering Uncertainties in the Cost of Solar  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Deciphering Uncertainties in the Cost of Solar Energy Deciphering Uncertainties in the Cost of Solar Energy Photovoltaic electricity is a rapidly growing renewable energy source and will ultimately assume a major role in global energy production. The cost of solar-generated electricity is typically compared with electricity produced by traditional sources with a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) calculation. Generally, LCOE is treated as a definite number, and the assumptions lying beneath that result are rarely reported or even understood. We shed light on some of the key assumptions and offer a new approach to calculating LCOE for photovoltaics based on input parameter distributions feeding a Monte Carlo simulation. In this framework, the influence of assumptions and confidence intervals becomes clear.

228

Optimal consumption strategies under model uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Optimal consumption strategies under model uncertainty Christian Burgert, Ludger R of finding optimal consumption strategies in an incomplete semimartingale market model under model uncertainty. The quality of a consumption strategy is measured by not only one probability measure

Rüschendorf, Ludger

229

The impact of uncertainty and risk measures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

xi Chapter 1 The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on theLIST OF FIGURES Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Oil priceOil price uncertainty with and without realized

Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

230

The Hidden Future Shock in Current Energy Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. The focus of this method is the economic measure of long term profit planning. As part of this presentation, the issues of energy price, availability, uncertainty, and the cost of 'doing nothing' are addressed. The conclusion is that our current lethargic...

Gilbert, J. S.

1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

The impact of uncertainty and risk measures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Evidence from TEXAS oil drilling. NBER Working Paper,uncertainty using Texas oil well drilling data and expecta-

Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

232

Applying Calibration to Improve Uncertainty Assessment  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND 1.1 Introduction The oil and gas industry is full of uncertainty. In addition to significant subsurface uncertainty and uncertainty in oil and gas prices, there are other risks, e.g., political, that contribute to uncertainty... that is commonly applied in other industries for assessing forecasts and was initially developed to assess weather forecasts (Brier, 1950). Lichtenstein and Fischhoff (1977) summarized the background for the 3 Brier score and its components. The Brier score...

Fondren, Mark Edward

2013-08-02T23:59:59.000Z

233

Ecological Economics 41 (2002) 509527 SPECIAL ISSUE: The Dynamics and Value of Ecosystem Services: Integrating  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

38, 1 Williams St., Solomons, MD 20688-0038, USA Abstract We estimated global marketed and non-marketed measure of marketed economic output) is correlated with the amount of light energy (LE) emitted: Integrating Economic and Ecological Perspectives Global estimates of market and non-market values derived from

Vermont, University of

234

Dark Energy from Quantum Uncertainty of Simultaneity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The observed acceleration expansion of the universe was thought attribute to a mysterious dark energy in the framework of the classical general relativity. The dark energy behaves very similar with a vacuum energy in quantum mechanics. However, once the quantum effects are seriously taken into account, it predicts a wrong order of the vacuum energy and leads to a severe fine-tuning, known as the cosmological constant problem. We abandon the standard interpretation that time is a global parameter in quantum mechanics, replace it by a quantum dynamical variable playing the role of an operational quantum clock system. In the framework of reinterpretation of time, we find that the synchronization of two quantum clocks distance apart can not be realized in all rigor at quantum level. Thus leading to an intrinsic quantum uncertainty of simultaneity between spatial interval, which implies a visional vacuum energy fluctuation and gives an observed dark energy density $\\rho_{de}=\\frac{6}{\\pi}L_{P}^{-2}L_{H}^{-2}$, whe...

Luo, M J

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

PDF uncertainties at large x and gauge boson production  

SciTech Connect

I discuss how global QCD fits of parton distribution functions can make the somewhat separated fields of high-energy particle physics and lower energy hadronic and nuclear physics interact to the benefit of both. In particular, I will argue that large rapidity gauge boson production at the Tevatron and the LHC has the highest short-term potential to constrain the theoretical nuclear corrections to DIS data on deuteron targets necessary for up/down flavor separation. This in turn can considerably reduce the PDF uncertainty on cross section calculations of heavy mass particles such as W' and Z' bosons.

Accardi, Alberto [Hampton U., JLAB

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

236

Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150  

SciTech Connect

Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives.

Benjamin, U.S.; Boyd, G.J.

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

237

Economic vulnerability to Peak Oil  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Peak Oil, which refers to the maximum possible global oil production rate, is increasingly gaining attention in both science and policy discourses. However, little is known about how this phenomenon will impact economies, despite its apparent imminence and potential dangers. In this paper, we construct a vulnerability map of the U.S. economy, combining two approaches for analyzing economic systems, i.e. inputoutput analysis and social network analysis (applied to economic data). Our approach reveals the relative importance of individual economic sectors, and how vulnerable they are to oil price shocks. As such, our dual-analysis helps identify which sectors, due to their strategic position, could put the entire U.S. economy at risk from Peak Oil. For the U.S., such sectors would include Iron Mills, Fertilizer Production and Transport by Air. Our findings thus provide early warnings to downstream companies about potential trouble in their supply chain, and inform policy action for Peak Oil. Although our analysis is embedded in a Peak Oil narrative, it is just as valid and useful in the context of developing a climate roadmap toward a low carbon economy.

Christian Kerschner; Christina Prell; Kuishuang Feng; Klaus Hubacek

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

238

Uncertainties in Estimating Moisture Fluxes over the Intra-Americas Sea ALBERTO M. MESTAS-NUEZ  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

by these uncertainties. Therefore, NCEP­ NCAR reanalysis, with its global coverage and long-term record, can be used-third of all the summer moisture that enters the continental United States is transported by the GPLLJ (Helfand United States. Future re- search aimed at understanding summer precipitation must therefore deal

239

Economic Evaluation of Radiopharmaceutical  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

97-2 Planning Report Economic Evaluation of Radiopharmaceutical Research at NIST U.S Department Radiation Division Physics Laboratory National Institute of Standards and Technology #12;Economic Evaluation of Standards and Technology by Albert N. Link Professor of Economics University of North Carolina at Greensboro

240

Economic Value of Agricultural  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic Value of Agricultural Research Public Investment in Texas Agricultural Research Yields Significant Economic Returns #12;Texas agricultural producers and especially consumers benefit directly from in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Texas A&M University conducted analyses using an agriculture

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

BridgeGreen : bridging the disconnect between design professionals and resources fro environmentally, socially, and economically responsive architecture  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Sustainable design, whether referred to as green, high performing, responsible, or environmentally, socially, and economically responsive architecture, is influencing the global building industry. Most major firms of ...

Elbaum, Meredith Sue, 1975-

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

PDF uncertainties on the W boson mass measurement from the lepton transverse momentum distribution  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We study the charged current Drell-Yan process and we evaluate the proton parton densities uncertainties on the lepton transverse momentum distribution and their impact on the determination of the W-boson mass. We consider the global PDF sets CT10, MSTW2008CPdeut, NNPDF2.3, NNPDF3.0, MMHT2014, and apply the PDF4LHC recipe to combine the individual results, obtaining an uncertainty on MW that ranges between +-18 and +-24 MeV, depending on the final state, collider energy and kind. We discuss the dependence of the uncertainty on the acceptance cuts and the role of the individual parton densities in the final result. We remark that some PDF sets predict an uncertainty on MW of O(10 MeV); this encouraging result is spoiled, in the combined analysis of the different sets, by an important spread of the central values predicted by each group.

Bozzi, Giuseppe; Vicini, Alessandro

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

Global Health Research | 2 Global Health Research  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Global Health Research | 2 Global Health Research Supporting researchers in low- and middle-income countries to carry out health- related research within their own countries. Gl bal Health #12;3 | Global Health Research #12;Global Health Research | 4 We are a global charitable foundation dedicated

Rambaut, Andrew

244

Global Predictions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

created every day by the lab and used by the forest service, county commissioners and others. Using computer technology and satellites, the lab currently focuses on three core spatial technologies? GIS, global positioning systems (GPS) and remote...,? said Srinivasan. The lab also uses GPS, a satellite navigation system useful for surveying property boundaries and fields. GPS uses satellites to locate and track any feature on Earth at any given time. The lab is using GPS in identifying the Corps...

Swyden, Courtney

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

245

Innovation and the dynamics of global warming  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Global warming and the carbon cycle are a dynamic system with positive feedbacks. Fossil fuels are exhaustible resources. These two facts mean that innovation in clean energy technology, rather than mitigating global warming, can lead to a permanently higher temperature path. This paper explores the impact of innovation in the simplest model linking the economic theory of exhaustible resources with positive feedback dynamics in the carbon cycle.

Ralph A. Winter

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

246

Exploiting simultaneous observational constraints on mass and absorption to estimate the global direct radiative forcing of black carbon and brown carbon  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Atmospheric black carbon (BC) is a leading climate warming agent, yet uncertainties on the global direct radiative forcing (DRF) remain large. Here we expand a global model simulation (GEOS-Chem) of BC to include the ...

Schwarz, J. P.

247

Securing the Sustainability of Global Medical Nuclear Supply Chains  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Securing the Sustainability of Global Medical Nuclear Supply Chains Through Economic Cost Recovery University of Massachusetts Amherst Securing the Sustainability of Medical Nuclear Supply Chains #12 of Massachusetts Amherst Securing the Sustainability of Medical Nuclear Supply Chains #12;This presentation

Nagurney, Anna

248

The Global Steam Coal Market and Supply Curve  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The modern steam coal trade is only about three decades old. ... market difficulties. In order to understand the coal market one needs to understand the global ... . In the chapter the author considers the economic

Dr. Lars Schernikau

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

249

Ranking the Economic Importance of Countries and Industries  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In the current era of worldwide stock market interdependencies, the global financial village has become increasingly vulnerable to systemic collapse. The recent global financial crisis has highlighted the necessity of understanding and quantifying interdependencies among the world's economies, developing new effective approaches to risk evaluation, and providing mitigating solutions. We present a methodological framework for quantifying interdependencies in the global market and for evaluating risk levels in the world-wide financial network. The resulting information will enable policy and decision makers to better measure, understand, and maintain financial stability. We use the methodology to rank the economic importance of each industry and country according to the global damage that would result from their failure. Our quantitative results shed new light on China's increasing economic dominance over other economies, including that of the USA, to the global economy.

Li, Wei; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Stanley, H Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

250

Review: Global Climate Change  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

introduction to global climate change, the greenhouseReview: Global Climate Change: A Primer By Orrin H PilkeyPilkey, Keith C. Global Climate Change: a primer. Durham,

Smith, Jennifer

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

251

ARM - PI Product - Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

ProductsDirect Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty ProductsDirect Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty Site(s) NSA SGP TWP General Description Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in

252

Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center  

SciTech Connect

Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

253

2012 CERTS R&M Peer Review - Transmission Investment Assessment Under Uncertainty - Ben Hobbs  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Transmission Transmission Investments Under Uncertainty & Transmission Investments Under Uncertainty & High Renewable Penetration: Representing Market Response using a Multi-stage Stochastic Model Approach with Recourse Model Approach with Recourse Benjamin F. Hobbs & Francisco Munoz Geography & Environmental Engineering Applied Math & Stat Geography & Environmental Engineering, Applied Math & Stat. Environment, Energy, Sustainability & Health Institute The Johns Hopkins University Richard E Schuler Richard E. Schuler Civil & Environmental Engineering, and Economics Cornell University August 2, 2011 Thanks to Saamrat Kasina and Harry van der Weijde for their assistance, and DOE CERTS for funding and DOE CERTS for funding O i Overview 1. The problem 1. The problem

254

Economic Development | ornl.gov  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Economic Development Carbon Fiber Cluster Strategy Additive Manufacturing Cluster Strategy Entrepreneurial Development Programs Oak Ridge Science and Technology Park Economic...

255

Research yields precise uncertainty equations  

SciTech Connect

Results of a study of orifice-meter accuracy by Chevron Oil Field Research Co. at its Venice, La., calibration facility have important implications for natural gas custody-transfer measurement. The calibration facility, data collection, and equipment calibration were described elsewhere. This article explains the derivation of uncertainty factors and details the study's findings. The results were based on calibration of two 16-in. orifice-meter runs. The experimental data cover a beta-ratio range of from 0.27 to 0.71 and a Reynolds number range of from 4,000,000 to 35,000,000. Discharge coefficients were determined by comparing the orifice flow to the flow from critical-flow nozzles.

Jones, E.H.; Ferguson, K.R.

1987-08-03T23:59:59.000Z

256

The impact of uncertainty and risk measures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

peak, and finds that this nonlinear transformation of the oiland oil price growth rates. As seen in the above illustration, uncertainty is at its peak

Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

The Retail Planning Problem under Demand Uncertainty.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and Rajaram K. , (2000), Accurate Retail Testing of FashionThe Retail Planning Problem Under Demand Uncertainty GeorgeAbstract We consider the Retail Planning Problem in which

Georgiadis, G.; Rajaram, K.

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

is pervasive for renewable resources, and it can play aConsider a valuable renewable resource whose biomass X2003. Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty,

Saphores, Jean-Daniel M

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Sensor Calibration...  

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Sensor Calibration Monitoring in Nuclear Power Plants Re-direct Destination: Temp Data Fields Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Lin, Guang; Crawford,...

260

Diagnosing the uncertainty and detectability of emission reductions for  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In preparation for the deployment of a new mechanism that could address as much as one fifth of global greenhouse gas emissions by reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD +), important work on methodological issues is still needed to secure the capacity to produce measurable, reportable, and verifiable emissions reductions from REDD + in developing countries. To contribute to this effort, we have diagnosed the main sources of uncertainty in the quantification of emission from deforestation for Panama, one of the first countries to be supported by the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility of the World Bank and by UN-REDD. Performing sensitivity analyses using a land-cover change emissions model, we identified forest carbon stocks and the quality of land-cover maps as the key parameters influencing model uncertainty. The time interval between two land-cover assessments, carbon density in fallow and secondary forest, and the accuracy of land-cover classifications also affect our ability to produce accurate estimates. Further, we used the model to compare emission reductions from five different deforestation reduction scenarios drawn from governmental input. Only the scenario simulating a reduction in deforestation by half succeeds in crossing outside the confidence bounds surrounding the baseline emission obtained from the uncertainty analysis. These results suggest that with current data, real emission reductions in developing countries could be obscured by their associated uncertainties. Ways of addressing the key sources of error are proposed, for developing countries involved in REDD + , for improving the accuracy of their estimates in the future. These new considerations confirm the importance of current efforts to establish forest monitoring systems and enhance capabilities for REDD + in developing countries.

Johanne Pelletier; Navin Ramankutty; Catherine Potvin

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

A global sustainability perspective on 3D printing technologies  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Three-dimensional printing (3DP) represents a relative novel technology in manufacturing which is associated with potentially strong stimuli for sustainable development. Until now, research has merely assessed case study-related potentials of 3DP and described specific aspects of 3DP. This study represents the first comprehensive assessment of 3DP from a global sustainability perspective. It contains a qualitative assessment of 3DP-induced sustainability implications and quantifies changes in life cycle costs, energy and CO2 emissions globally by 2025. 3DP is identified to cost-effectively lower manufacturing inputs and outputs in markets with low volume, customized and high-value production chains as aerospace and medical component manufacturing. This lowers energy use, resource demands and related CO2 emissions over the entire product life cycle, induces changes in labour structures and generates shifts towards more digital and localized supply chains. The model calculations show that 3DP contains the potential to reduce costs by 170593 billion US $, the total primary energy supply by 2.549.30EJ and CO2 emissions by 130.5525.5Mt by 2025. The great range within the saving potentials can be explained with the immature state of the technology and the associated uncertainties of predicting market and technology developments. The energy and CO2 emission intensities of industrial manufacturing are reducible by maximally 5% through 3DP by 2025, as 3DP remains a niche technology. If 3DP was applicable to larger production volumes in consumer products or automotive manufacturing, it contains the (theoretical) potential to absolutely decouple energy and CO2 emission from economic activity.

Malte Gebler; Anton J.M. Schoot Uiterkamp; Cindy Visser

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

global warming's six indias  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

global warming's six indias: An Audience Segmentation Analysis #12;Global Warming's Six Indias 1............................................................................................................................................20 2. Global Warming Beliefs and Attitudes................................................................................ 21 Knowledge about global warming varies widely by group

Haller, Gary L.

263

Economic Contribution of Ports to the Local Economies in Korea  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ports function as important gateways of international trade and, accordingly, they tend to be regarded as major accelerators of local economic development in the age of globalization. However, due to advancement of logistic technology, change of economic structure and so on, local benefits derived from ports show decreasing trend. In this paper, major literatures regarding port-city interface are reviewed and input-output linkage effects of ports are examined. And then, the relationship between ports and economic performances of major port cities in Korea are discussed based on empirical data of port throughput and economic indicators. According to the analyses, typical port cities of Busan and Incheon failed to get out of poor state of economic performances until lately. It seems the convenience of readily available port services cannot guarantee economic success of the cities where ports are located. Local economies may no longer benefit much from nearby ports.

Bong-min Jung

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

264

A High-Performance Embedded Hybrid Methodology for Uncertainty Quantification With Applications  

SciTech Connect

Multiphysics processes modeled by a system of unsteady di#11;erential equations are natu- rally suited for partitioned (modular) solution strategies. We consider such a model where probabilistic uncertainties are present in each module of the system and represented as a set of random input parameters. A straightforward approach in quantifying uncertainties in the predicted solution would be to sample all the input parameters into a single set, and treat the full system as a black-box. Although this method is easily parallelizable and requires minimal modi#12;cations to deterministic solver, it is blind to the modular structure of the underlying multiphysical model. On the other hand, using spectral representations polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) can provide richer structural information regarding the dynamics of these uncertainties as they propagate from the inputs to the predicted output, but can be prohibitively expensive to implement in the high-dimensional global space of un- certain parameters. Therefore, we investigated hybrid methodologies wherein each module has the exibility of using sampling or PCE based methods of capturing local uncertainties while maintaining accuracy in the global uncertainty analysis. For the latter case, we use a conditional PCE model which mitigates the curse of dimension associated with intru- sive Galerkin or semi-intrusive Pseudospectral methods. After formalizing the theoretical framework, we demonstrate our proposed method using a numerical viscous ow simulation and benchmark the performance against a solely Monte-Carlo method and solely spectral method.

Iaccarino, Gianluca

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

Inflation uncertainty, growth uncertainty, oil prices, and output growth in the UK  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study examines the transmission and response of inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the UK using a bi-variate EGARCH model. Results suggest that inflation uncertain...

Ramprasad Bhar; Girijasankar Mallik

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

266

Uncertainty in Contaminant Concentration Fields Resulting from Atmospheric Boundary Layer Depth Uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The relationship between atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) depth uncertainty and uncertainty in atmospheric transport and dispersion (ATD) simulations is investigated by examining profiles of predicted concentrations of a contaminant. Because ...

Brian P. Reen; Kerrie J. Schmehl; George S. Young; Jared A. Lee; Sue Ellen Haupt; David R. Stauffer

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

267

Economic Development Office  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Contacts Gary Spanner Economic Development Office Manager 509372-4296 ROB1210 Robin Conger Program Manager 509372-4328 ROB1221 Bernard Hansen Entrepreneurial Programs Manager...

268

Fixed-flowrate total water network synthesis under uncertainty with risk management  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This work addresses the problem of integrated water network synthesis under uncertainty with risk management. We consider a superstructure consisting of water sources, regenerators, and sinks that leads to a mixed-integer quadratically-constrained quadratic program (MIQCQP) for a fixed-flowrate total water network synthesis problem. Uncertainty in the problem is accounted for via a recourse-based two-stage stochastic programming formulation with discrete scenarios that gives rise to a multiscenario MIQCQP comprising network design in the first stage and its operation in the second stage acting as recourse. In addition, we extend the model to address risk management using the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) metric. Because a large number of scenarios is often required to capture the underlying uncertainty of the problem, causing the model to suffer from the curse of dimensionality, we propose a stepwise solution strategy to reduce the computational load. We illustrate this methodology on a case study inspired from the water network of a petroleum refinery in Malaysia. The presence of nonconvex bilinear terms necessitates the use of global optimization techniques for which we employ a new global MIQCQP solver, GAMS/GloMIQO and verify the solutions with BARON. Our computational results show that total water network synthesis under uncertainty with risk management problems can be solved to global optimality in reasonable time.

Cheng Seong Khor; Benoit Chachuat; Nilay Shah

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

Economics (College of Arts and Sciences) The economics major focuses on economics as a social science.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economics (College of Arts and Sciences) The economics major focuses on economics as a social in the world? What types of political regimes best promote economic development? Are resource-rich developing countries cursed? Are drug cartels economically sound? Can humans work towards a better economic basis

Miles, Will

270

Recent Progress in Global PDF Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We discuss selected topics in the forthcoming MSTW 2008 determination of parton distributions by global analysis. The tolerance parameter controlling the uncertainties on the parton distributions is now determined by a new dynamic procedure for each eigenvector of the covariance matrix. New data sets fitted include Tevatron Run II data on inclusive jet production, the lepton charge asymmetry from W decays and the Z rapidity distribution. Predictions are given for the total W and Z cross sections at the Tevatron and LHC.

Watt, G; Stirling, W J; Thorne, R S

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

Climate Change Impacts on Global Food Security  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...pressures on food prices, economic...will have many effects on the global...recent data are averages for the period...burning of fossil fuels, with smaller...Goldberg R. , The effect of changes in...other renewable fuels for transport...surging food prices . Agric. Econ...osterdal, Effects of food price...

Tim Wheeler; Joachim von Braun

2013-08-02T23:59:59.000Z

272

Networks and globalization policies Douglas R. White  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

9 Networks and globalization policies Douglas R. White 1 This Chapter argues for connecting models economy (e.g., Reichardt and White, 2007), nor of changes of position in the core-periphery economic structure (Smith and White, 1992) entail that core-periphery exchange structures are everywhere

White, Douglas R.

273

Uncertainty and Inference for Verification Measures  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

When a forecast is assessed, a single value for a verification measure is often quoted. This is of limited use, as it needs to be complemented by some idea of the uncertainty associated with the value. If this uncertainty can be quantified, it is ...

Ian T. Jolliffe

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

274

COMMON KNOWLEDGE, COHERENT UNCERTAINTIES AND CONSENSUS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

COMMON KNOWLEDGE, COHERENT UNCERTAINTIES AND CONSENSUS by Yakov Ben-Haim TECHNICAL REPORT ETR-2001 of Mechanical Engineering #12;Working Paper Common Knowledge, Coherent Uncertainties and Consensus Yakov Ben- and knowledge-functions, common knowledge and consensus. Our main results are that knowledge is constricted

Rimon, Elon

275

Including Ocean Model Uncertainties in Climate Predictions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Including Ocean Model Uncertainties in Climate Predictions Chris Brierley, Alan Thorpe, Mat Collins's to perform the integrations Currently uses a `slab' ocean #12;An Ocean Model Required to accurately model transient behaviour Will have its own uncertainties Requires even more computing power Create new models

Jones, Peter JS

276

Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster)  

SciTech Connect

Dependable and predictable energy production is the key to the long-term success of the PV industry. PV systems show over the lifetime of their exposure a gradual decline that depends on many different factors such as module technology, module type, mounting configuration, climate etc. When degradation rates are determined from continuous data the statistical uncertainty is easily calculated from the regression coefficients. However, total uncertainty that includes measurement uncertainty and instrumentation drift is far more difficult to determine. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was chosen to investigate a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The most important effect for degradation rates is to avoid instrumentation that changes over time in the field. For instance, a drifting irradiance sensor, which can be achieved through regular calibration, can lead to a substantially erroneous degradation rates. However, the accuracy of the irradiance sensor has negligible impact on degradation rate uncertainty emphasizing that precision (relative accuracy) is more important than absolute accuracy.

Jordan, D.; Kurtz, S.; Hansen, C.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

277

China Economy: Technology, Growth and Global Connections (3 Credits)  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

China Economy: Technology, Growth and Global Connections (3 Credits) Instructor Susan Mays addresses China's economic and technological development in a global context, circa 1978 to the present investment, and ownership (i.e., public vs. private.) The class presents China's progress and challenges

278

What drives global ICT adoption? Analysis and research directions  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Information and communication technology (ICT) adoption is increasing globally and offers unique opportunities for information systems (IS) and electronic commerce researchers to undertake research that will have an impact. The purpose of this article ... Keywords: Adoption, Behavioral explanations, Diffusion, Economic explanations, Global perspective, ICT, Policy issues, Technology adoption

David M. Weber; Robert J. Kauffman

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

279

Economics of Private Forestry  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... is consulting editor. One of the latest is a volume dealing with the economics of private forestry by Dr. Ralph W. Marquis, assistant professor of economics, University of Rochester ... elsewhere in the world with the exception of Canada. In Britain when we talk about private forestry we allude chiefly to the ...

E. P. STEBBING

1941-01-11T23:59:59.000Z

280

Water Resources Policy & Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Water Resources Policy & Economics FOR 4984 Selected Course Topics · Appropriative and riparian water institutions · Incentives for conservation · Water rights for in-stream environmental use · Surface water-groundwater management · Water quality regulations · Water markets · Economic and policy

Buehrer, R. Michael

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

STFC Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2009/10 Economic Impact  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

STFC Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2009/10 Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2009/10 #12;STFC Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2009/10 Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2009/10 #12;STFC Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2009/10 1 Contents: Introduction

282

INNOVATIONSIN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT The Evolving Direction of Economic  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

INNOVATIONSIN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT The Evolving Direction of Economic Development in the New REPORT PUBLISHED NOVEMBER, 1998 INNOVATIONSIN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SUMMIT II: A SEQUEL TO THE 1992 STATE AND LOCAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY SUMMIT The Evolving Direction of Economic Development in the New

Levinson, David M.

283

The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways  

SciTech Connect

A new set of socioeconomic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) are described that provide a set of global narratives and socio-economic pathways to pair with climate model scenarios developed using the new Representative Concentration Pathways.

Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Lempert, Rob; Moss, Richard H.; Wilbanks, Thomas

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

Wanted: Global Clean Energy Partners | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Wanted: Global Clean Energy Partners Wanted: Global Clean Energy Partners Home > Groups > OpenEI Community Central Graham7781's picture Submitted by Graham7781(1992) Super contributor 24 February, 2010 - 13:51 imported OpenEI Global climate change. Global sustainability. Global economic development. There's no doubt about it-if the nations of the world are going to solve the most pressing environmental, energy, and economic problems, we must do it together. OpenEI's International Clean Energy Analysis gateway fosters this cooperation by providing global clean energy data, analytical tools, training, and other resources in a dynamic, interactive environment. As a collaborative initiative of the U.S. Department of Energy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and United Nations Industrial Development

285

The Entropy Law and the impossibility of perpetual economic growth  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Every production-recycling iteration accumulates an inevitable proportion of its matter-energy in the environment, lest the production process itself would be a system in perpetual motion, violating the second law of Thermodynamics. Such high-entropy matter depletes finite stocks of ecosystem services provided by the ecosphere, hence are incompatible with the long-term growth in the material scale of the economic process. Moreover, the complex natural systems governing such stocks respond to depletion by possibly sudden environmental transitions, thus hindering markets' very ability to adapt to the new equilibrium conditions. Consequently, uncertainty of critical resilience thresholds constrains material economic growth.

Earp, Henrique N S

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

Microsoft Word - feb10-Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

February 2010 February 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 February 12, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $78.33 per barrel in January 2010, almost $4 per barrel higher than the prior month's average and matching the $78-per-barrel forecast in last month's Outlook. The WTI spot price peaked at $83.12 on January 6 and then fell to $72.85 on January 29 as the weather turned warm and concerns about the strength of world economic recovery increased. EIA forecasts that WTI spot prices will remain near current levels over the next few months, averaging $76 per barrel in February and March, before rising to about $82 per barrel in the late

287

Theoretical uncertainty of orifice flow measurement  

SciTech Connect

Orifice meters are the most common meters used for fluid flow measurement, especially for measuring hydrocarbons. Meters are rugged, mechanically simple, and well suited for field use under extreme weather conditions. Because of their long history of use and dominance in the fluid flow measurement, their designs, installation requirements, and equations for flow rate calculation have been standardized by different organizations in the United States and internationally. These standards provide the guideline for the users to achieve accurate flow measurement. and minimize measurement uncertainty. This paper discusses different factors that contribute to the measurement inaccuracy and provide an awareness to minimize or eliminate these errors. Many factors which influence the overall measurement uncertainty are associated with the orifice meter application. Major contributors to measurement uncertainty include the predictability of flow profile, fluid properties at flowing condition, precision of empirical equation for discharge coefficient, manufacturing tolerances in meter components, and the uncertainty associated with secondary devices monitoring the static line pressure, differential pressure across the orifice plate, flowing temperature, etc. Major factors contributing to the measurement uncertainty for a thin, concentric, square-edged orifice flowmeter are as follows: (a) Tolerances in prediction of coefficient of discharge, (b) Predictability in defining the physical properties of the flowing fluid, (c) Fluid flow condition, (d) Construction tolerances in meter components, (e) Uncertainty of secondary devices/instrumentation, and (f) Data reduction and computation. Different factors under each of the above areas are discussed with precautionary measures and installation procedures to minimize or eliminate measurement uncertainty.

Husain, Z.D. [Daniel Flow Products, Inc., Houston, TX (United States)

1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

The spectre of uncertainty in communicating technological risk  

SciTech Connect

The literature does not clearly describe the potential moral and ethical conflicts that can exist between technology sponsors and the technical communicators whose job it is to present potentially risky technology to the non-technical people most likely to be imperiled by such risk. Equally important, the literature does not address the issue of uncertainty -- not the uncertainty likely to be experienced by the community at risk, but the unreliable processes and methodologies used by technology sponsors to define, quantify, and develop strategies to mitigate technological risks. In this paper, the author goes beyond a description of risk communication, the nature of the generally predictable interaction between technology advocates and non-technically trained individuals, and current trends in the field. Although that kind of information is critical to the success of any risk communication activity, and he has included it when necessary to provide background and perspective, without knowing how and why risk assessment is done, it has limited practical applicability outside the sterile, value-free vacuum in which it is usually framed. Technical communicators, particularly those responsible for communicating potential technological risk, must also understand the social, political, economic, statistical, and ethical issues they will invariably encounter.

Broesius, M.T.

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

Economical Condensing Turbines?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

an engineer decide when to conduct an in depth study of the economics either in the company or outside utilizing professional engineers who are experts in this type of project. Condensing steam turbines may not be economical when the fuel is purchased...Economical Condensing Turbines? by J.E.Dean, P.E. Steam turbines have long been used at utilities and in industry to generate power. There are three basic types of steam turbines: condensing, letdown 1 and extraction/condensing. ? Letdown...

Dean, J. E.

290

Uncertainty Quantification on Prompt Fission Neutrons Spectra  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Uncertainties in the evaluated prompt fission neutrons spectra present in ENDF/B-VII.0 are assessed in the framework of the Los Alamos model. The methodology used to quantify the uncertainties on an evaluated spectrum is introduced. We also briefly review the Los Alamos model and single out the parameters that have the largest influence on the calculated results. Using a Kalman filter, experimental data and uncertainties are introduced to constrain model parameters, and construct an evaluated covariance matrix for the prompt neutrons spectrum. Preliminary results are shown in the case of neutron-induced fission of 235U from thermal up to 15 MeV incident energies.

P. Talou; D.G. Madland; T. Kawano

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

291

QUESTIONS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

QUESTIONS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING ¥IS IT REAL? ¥IS IT IMPORTANT? ¥WHAT IS IT DUE TO? ¥HOW MUCH MORE in the atmosphere, giving Earth its temperate climate. Global Atmosphere, Global Warming GLOBAL TEMPERATURE TREND?t a cure for global warming! Aerosols only last a short while in the atmosphere, they would have

292

Economic Impact Analysis for EGS  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

Project objective: To conduct an economic impact study for EGS and to develop a Geothermal Economics Calculator (GEC) tool to quantify (in economic terms) the potential job, energy and environmental impacts associated with electric power production from geothermal resources.

293

The Economic Impact of Binghamton  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The Economic Impact of Binghamton University, FY2010 (July 1, 2009-June 30, 2010) Office .......................................................................................................... 2 ECONOMIC OUTPUT and Tioga counties and the overall impact of New York State in terms of economic output, jobs, and human

Suzuki, Masatsugu

294

The Economic University, FY2011  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The Economic Impact of Binghamton University, FY2011 (July 1, 2010-June 30, 2011) Office....................................................................................................................2 ECONOMIC OUTPUT and Tioga counties) and the New York State economy in terms of economic output, jobs, and human capital

Suzuki, Masatsugu

295

Robust quantification of parametric uncertainty for surfactantpolymer flooding  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Uncertainty in surfactantpolymer flooding is an important challenge to the wide- ... uncertainty in an efficient manner. Monte Carlo simulation is the traditional uncertainty quantification approach that ... unc...

Ali Alkhatib; Peter King

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

Decision Theory under Complex Uncertainty Durham 15 May 2008  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Decision Theory under Complex Uncertainty Durham 15 May 2008 Decision Theory under Complex #12;Decision Theory under Complex Uncertainty Durham 15 May 2008 Decision Theory under Complex Robert Hable University of Bayreuth #12;Decision Theory under Complex Uncertainty Decision Theory

Hable, Robert

297

Error Detection and Recovery for Robot Motion Planning with Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Robots must plan and execute tasks in the presence of uncertainty. Uncertainty arises from sensing errors, control errors, and uncertainty in the geometry of the environment. The last, which is called model error, has ...

Donald, Bruce Randall

1987-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

298

Essays on economic theory  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

These four essays concern the theory of games and its application to economic theory. The first two, closely linked, chapters are an investigation into the foundational question of the sensitivity of the predictions of ...

Weinstein, Jonathan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

Essays in labor economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

I addressed three questions in Labor Economics, using experimental and quasi-experimental variation to determine causality. In the first chapter, I ask whether playing longer in the NFL increases mortality in retirement. ...

Williams, Tyler (Tyler Kenneth)

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

300

The economics of desalination  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The economic development of the process of desalination depends upon its ability to produce water that is competitive on a cost basis with water from conventional sources. Energy costs can be minimized by combining the water plants with power plants ...

S. Baron

1966-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Municipal Sludge disposal economics  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Municipal Sludge disposal economics ... Atmospheric emissions of elements on particles from the Parkway sewage-sludge incinerator ... Atmospheric emissions of elements on particles from the Parkway sewage-sludge incinerator ...

Jerry Jones; David Bomberger, Jr.; F Lewis; Joel Jacknow

1977-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

Economic Impact | Jefferson Lab  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Jefferson Lab's Hall A Jefferson Lab generates many economic benefits for the nation and Virginia, providing many well-paying jobs for highly skilled and well-educated workers. A D...

303

Essays on development economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This dissertation is a collection of three independent papers in empirical development economics. The first chapter studies the effect of a family planning program in Bangladesh, which successfully reduced fertility, on ...

Ruthbah, Ummul Hasanath

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

304

WINDExchange: Wind Economic Development  

Wind Powering America (EERE)

help you analyze the economics of a small wind electric system and decide whether wind energy will work for you. Wind Energy Finance Online Calculator Wind Energy Finance developed...

305

Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Projects: Approaches for  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Projects: Approaches for Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Projects: Approaches for the Agricultural Sector and Beyond Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Projects: Approaches for the Agricultural Sector and Beyond Agency/Company /Organization: Global Environment Facility Sector: Land Focus Area: Agriculture Topics: Adaptation, Policies/deployment programs Website: siteresources.worldbank.org/ENVIRONMENT/Resources/DevCC1_Adaptation.pd Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Projects: Approaches for the Agricultural Sector and Beyond Screenshot References: Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Projects: Approaches for the Agricultural Sector and Beyond[1] Overview "This paper identifies key challenges and solutions for carrying out

306

Estimating uncertainties in integrated reservoir studies  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

between mismatch and closeness to the true reserves value. The integrated mismatch method does not need a large number of simulation runs for the uncertainty analysis, while some other methods need hundreds of runs....

Zhang, Guohong

2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

307

Market Clearing under Uncertainty: Wind Energy  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Power systems are subject to a great variety of uncertainties. Restructuring and competition in electricity systems are definitely contingent on the available means to overcome the difficulties brought by thes...

Antonio J. Conejo; Miguel Carrin

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

Uncertainty in climate change policy analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Achieving agreement about whether and how to control greenhouse gas emissions would be difficult enough even if the consequences were fully known. Unfortunately, choices must be made in the face of great uncertainty, about ...

Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G.

309

Analysis of S-Circuit Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The theory of sensori-computational circuits provides a capable framework for the description and optimization of robotic systems, including on-line optimizations. This theory, however, is inadequate in that it does not account for uncertainty in a...

Ahmed, Taahir

2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

310

Assessment of solution uncertainties in single-column modeling frameworks  

SciTech Connect

Single-column models (SCMs) have been extensively promoted in recent years as an effective means to develop and test physical parameterizations targeted for more complex three-dimensional climate models. Although there are some clear advantages associated with single-column modeling, there are also some significant disadvantages, including the absence of large-scale feedbacks. Basic limitations of an SCM framework can make it difficult to interpret solutions, and at times contribute to rather striking failures to identify even first-order sensitivities as they would be observed in a global climate simulation. This manuscript will focus on one of the basic experimental approaches currently exploited by the single-column modeling community, with an emphasis on establishing the inherent uncertainties in the numerical solutions. The analysis will employ the standard physics package from the NCAR CCM3 and will illustrate the nature of solution uncertainties that arise from nonlinearities in parameterized physics. The results of this study suggest the need to make use of an ensemble methodology when conducting single-column modeling investigations.

Hack, J.J.; Pedretti, J.A.

2000-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

311

Using Information on Uncertainty to Improve Environmental Fate Modeling: A Case Study on DDT  

SciTech Connect

Present and future concentrations of DDT in the environment are calculated with the global multi-media model CliMoChem. Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess the importance of uncertainties in substance property data, emission rates, and environmental parameters for model results. Uncertainties in the model results, expressed as 95percent confidence intervals of DDT concentrations in various environmental media, in different geographical locations, and at different points in time are typically between one and two orders of magnitude. An analysis of rank correlations between model inputs and predicted DDT concentrations indicates that emission estimates and degradation rate constants, in particular in the atmosphere, are the most influential model inputs. For DDT levels in the Arctic, temperature dependencies of substance properties are also influential parameters. A Bayesian Monte Carlo approach is used to update uncertain model inputs based on measurements of DDT in the field. The updating procedure suggests a lower value for half-life in air and a reduced range of uncertainty for KOW of DDT. As could be expected, the Bayesian updating yields model results that are closer to observations, and model uncertainties have decreased. The combined sensitivity analysis and Bayesian Monte Carlo approach provide new insight into important processes that govern the global fate and persistence of DDT in the environment.

Schenker, Urs; Scheringer, Martin; Sohn, Michael D.; Maddalena, Randy L.; McKone, Thomas E.; Hungerbuhler, Konrad

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

Reactor Neutrino Flux Uncertainty Suppression on Multiple Detector Experiments  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This publication provides a coherent treatment for the reactor neutrino flux uncertainties suppression, specially focussed on the latest $\\theta_{13}$ measurement. The treatment starts with single detector in single reactor site, most relevant for all reactor experiments beyond $\\theta_{13}$. We demonstrate there is no trivial error cancellation, thus the flux systematic error can remain dominant even after the adoption of multi-detector configurations. However, three mechanisms for flux error suppression have been identified and calculated in the context of Double Chooz, Daya Bay and RENO sites. Our analysis computes the error {\\it suppression fraction} using simplified scenarios to maximise relative comparison among experiments. We have validated the only mechanism exploited so far by experiments to improve the precision of the published $\\theta_{13}$. The other two newly identified mechanisms could lead to total error flux cancellation under specific conditions and are expected to have major implications on the global $\\theta_{13}$ knowledge today. First, Double Chooz, in its final configuration, is the only experiment benefiting from a negligible reactor flux error due to a $\\sim$90\\% geometrical suppression. Second, Daya Bay and RENO could benefit from their partial geometrical cancellation, yielding a potential $\\sim$50\\% error suppression, thus significantly improving the global $\\theta_{13}$ precision today. And third, we illustrate the rationale behind further error suppression upon the exploitation of the inter-reactor error correlations, so far neglected. So, our publication is a key step forward in the context of high precision neutrino reactor experiments providing insight on the suppression of their intrinsic flux error uncertainty, thus affecting past and current experimental results, as well as the design of future experiments.

Andi Cucoanes; Pau Novella; Anatael Cabrera; Muriel Fallot; Anthony Onillon; Michel Obolensky; Frederic Yermia

2015-01-02T23:59:59.000Z

313

Response of Professional Societies and Conservation Organizations to Peak Oil and Economic Growth  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Peaking of the worlds oil supply is resulting in economic, social, ... way to live and is utterly dependent on oil. Addressing current environmental problems is already a ... up their efforts to address global i...

David L. Trauger; Rhonda D. Jackson

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

314

Assessing environmental benefits and economic costs of aviation environmental policy measures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Despite the recent global economic downturn, longer term growth is anticipated for aviation with an increasing environmental impact, specifically in the areas of noise, air quality, and climate change. To ensure sustainable ...

Mahashabde, Anuja (Anuja Anil)

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

Building | GE Global Research  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Scientists at GE Global Research get into the holiday spirit by bringing high-tech additive manufacturing techniques to Christmas... Read More Global Research and GE...

316

Timeline | GE Global Research  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Global Research Over Time From our earliest days, we've been changing the landscape in commercial science and technology. Explore our inventions' evolution. Home > Global Research...

317

BA in ECONOMICS (736020) MAP Sheet Department of Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

BA in ECONOMICS (736020) MAP Sheet Department of Economics For students entering the degree program from approved list from approved list Econ 110* from approved list personal choice The Economics: complete the following with a grade of C- or better: Econ 110* Economics Principles and Problems Econ 378

Olsen Jr., Dan R.

318

Gatton College of Business and Economics ECO Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Gatton College of Business and Economics ECO Economics KEY: # = new course * = course changed = course dropped University of Kentucky 2013-2014 Undergraduate Bulletin 1 ECO 101 CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC ISSUES. (3) A basic course in the analysis of contemporary economic issues with emphasis on current

MacAdam, Keith

319

ELECTRICITY CASE: ECONOMIC COST ESTIMATION FACTORS FOR ECONOMIC  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

ELECTRICITY CASE: ECONOMIC COST ESTIMATION FACTORS FOR ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF TERRORIST ATTACKS Zimmerman, R. CREATE REPORT Under FEMA Grant EMW-2004-GR-0112 May 31, 2005 Center for Risk and Economic #12;2 Abstract The major economic effects of electric power outages are usually associated with three

Wang, Hai

320

BS in ECONOMICS (736021) MAP Sheet Department of Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

BS in ECONOMICS (736021) MAP Sheet Department of Economics For students entering the degree program approved list from approved list Econ 110* from approved list personal choice The Economics Department the following with a grade of C- or better: Econ 110* Economics Principles and Problems Econ 378 Statistics

Olsen Jr., Dan R.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

BA in ECONOMICS (736020) MAP Sheet Department of Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

BA in ECONOMICS (736020) MAP Sheet Department of Economics For students entering the degree program The Economics Department requires a minimum of 21 hours in the major to be taken in residency at BYU courses: complete the following with a grade of C- or better: Econ 110* Economics Principles and Problems

Olsen Jr., Dan R.

322

BS in ECONOMICS (736021) MAP Sheet Department of Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

BS in ECONOMICS (736021) MAP Sheet Department of Economics For students entering the degree program The Economics Department requires a minimum of 21 hours in the major to be taken in residency at BYU courses: complete the following with a grade of C- or better: Econ 110* Economics Principles and Problems

Olsen Jr., Dan R.

323

Why are climate models reproducing the observed global surface warming so well?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Why are climate models reproducing the observed global surface warming so well? Reto Knutti1 global surface warming so well?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L18704, doi:10.1029/ 2008GL034932. 1 models reproduce the observed surface warming better than one would expect given the uncertainties

Fischlin, Andreas

324

Technology Transfer: Triggering New Global Markets and Job Growth |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Technology Transfer: Triggering New Global Markets and Job Growth Technology Transfer: Triggering New Global Markets and Job Growth Technology Transfer: Triggering New Global Markets and Job Growth September 20, 2011 - 11:33am Addthis The Global Positioning System (GPS) was initially a government technology developed to guide nuclear missiles, and is one of the many examples of the economic potential of successful technology transfer -- the now worldwide location technologies market is projected to grow to $75 billion by 2013. The Global Positioning System (GPS) was initially a government technology developed to guide nuclear missiles, and is one of the many examples of the economic potential of successful technology transfer -- the now worldwide location technologies market is projected to grow to $75 billion by 2013.

325

1 - Social and economic value of coal  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract: As the worlds leading source of electric power, coal is the continuing cornerstone of economic development, social progress, and a higher quality of life. Coal is powering the twenty-first century economic miracles rapidly unfolding in China and India, as reliability, affordability, and availability make coal the fuel of choice in the developing world. Demand modeling from both the International Energy Agency and US Energy Information Administration indicates that coal will provide the most amount of incremental energy over the next two decades. Looking forward, with the expanding implementation of clean coal technologies, the door to coals global leadership role will remain open as the world strives to meet the ever-rising demand for energy while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

J. Clemente; F. Clemente

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

IEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

should use as a tool to evaluate as part of the planning process. Economic, political, socialIEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board Daniel D. Huppert, Chair Lon L. Peters, Vice-Chair Joel R and Guidance for Economic Analysis in Subbasin Planning Independent Economic Analysis Board January 2003

327

Partnership for Economic Policy Modeling and Policy Impact Analysis (MPIA)  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Partnership for Economic Policy Modeling and Policy Impact Analysis (MPIA) Partnership for Economic Policy Modeling and Policy Impact Analysis (MPIA) Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP green logo.png FIND MORE DIA TOOLS This tool is part of the Development Impacts Assessment (DIA) Toolkit from the LEDS Global Partnership. Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Modeling and Policy Impact Analysis (MPIA) Model Agency/Company /Organization: Partnership for Economic Policy Sector: Climate, Energy Complexity/Ease of Use: Advanced Website: www.pep-net.org/programs/mpia/ Cost: Free Related Tools Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) SEAGA Intermediate Level Handbook Poverty Social Impact Analysis ... further results A computable general equilibrium model that accounts for the interactions among sectors and institutions, and their links with the global economy. A

328

Economics of Peak Oil  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Peak oil refers to the future decline in world production of crude oil and the accompanying potentially calamitous effects. The peak oil literature typically rejects economic analysis. This article argues that economic analysis is indeed appropriate for analyzing oil scarcity because standard economic models can replicate the observed peaks in oil production. Moreover, the emphasis on peak oil is misplaced as peaking is not a good indicator of scarcity, peak oil techniques are overly simplistic, the catastrophes predicted by the peak oil literature are unlikely, and the literature does not contribute to correcting identified market failures. Efficiency of oil markets could be improved by instead focusing on remedying market failures such as excessive private discount rates, environmental externalities, market power, insufficient innovation incentives, incomplete futures markets, and insecure property rights.

S.P. Holland

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

Economic impacts study  

SciTech Connect

This is a progress report on the first phase of a project to measure the economic impacts of a rapidly changing U.S. target base. The purpose of the first phase is to designate and test the macroeconomic impact analysis model. Criteria were established for a decision-support model. Additional criteria were defined for an interactive macroeconomic impact analysis model. After a review of several models, the Economic Impact Forecast System model of the U.S. Army Construction Research Laboratory was selected as the appropriate input-output tool that can address local and regional economic analysis. The model was applied to five test cases to demonstrate its utility and define possible revisions to meet project criteria. A plan for EIFS access was defined at three levels. Objectives and tasks for scenario refinement are proposed.

Brunsen, W.; Worley, W.; Frost, E.

1988-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

330

PNNL Global Energy Technology Strategy Program | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Technology Strategy Program Technology Strategy Program Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Global Energy Technology Strategy Program Name Global Energy Technology Strategy Program Agency/Company /Organization Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Sector Energy Website http://www.pnl.gov/gtsp/ References Global Energy Technology Strategy Program [1] "Since its inception in 1998, the Global Energy Technology Strategy Program (GTSP) has been assessing the important roles that technology can play in effectively managing the long-term risks of climate change. This involves an integrated approach to fully exploring all aspects of climate change - including scientific, economic, regulatory, and social impacts - and then aligning new or existing technologies to mitigate negative consequences.[1]

331

Estimating the economic cost of sea-level rise Masahiro Sugiyama  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Estimating the economic cost of sea-level rise by Masahiro Sugiyama Bachelor of Science in Earth To improve the estimate of economic costs of future sea-level rise associated with global climate change, the thesis generalizes the sea-level rise cost function originally proposed by Fankhauser, and applies

332

Global Health Seminar Series  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Bay Area Global Health Seminar Series Moving beyond millennium targets in global health: The challenges of investing in health and universal health coverage Although targets can help to focus global health efforts, they can also detract attention from deeper underlying challenges in global health

Klein, Ophir

333

Uncertainty and sampling issues in tank characterization  

SciTech Connect

A defensible characterization strategy must recognize that uncertainties are inherent in any measurement or estimate of interest and must employ statistical methods for quantifying and managing those uncertainties. Estimates of risk and therefore key decisions must incorporate knowledge about uncertainty. This report focuses statistical methods that should be employed to ensure confident decision making and appropriate management of uncertainty. Sampling is a major source of uncertainty that deserves special consideration in the tank characterization strategy. The question of whether sampling will ever provide the reliable information needed to resolve safety issues is explored. The issue of sample representativeness must be resolved before sample information is reliable. Representativeness is a relative term but can be defined in terms of bias and precision. Currently, precision can be quantified and managed through an effective sampling and statistical analysis program. Quantifying bias is more difficult and is not being addressed under the current sampling strategies. Bias could be bounded by (1) employing new sampling methods that can obtain samples from other areas in the tanks, (2) putting in new risers on some worst case tanks and comparing the results from existing risers with new risers, or (3) sampling tanks through risers under which no disturbance or activity has previously occurred. With some bound on bias and estimates of precision, various sampling strategies could be determined and shown to be either cost-effective or infeasible.

Liebetrau, A.M.; Pulsipher, B.A.; Kashporenko, D.M. [and others

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

334

Power Economic Analysis  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

CRSP Management Center CRSP Management Center Western Area Power Administration January 2011 Power Economic Analysis of Operational Restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam In February, 1997, the operating criteria for Glen Canyon Dam were changed. Operation was restricted to a Modified Low Fluctuating Flow as described in the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River Storage Project, Arizona, Final Environmental Impact Statement, March, 1995. These restrictions reduced the operating flexibility of the hydroelectric power plant and therefore the economic value of the electricity it produced. The Environmental Impact Statement provided impact information to support the Record of Decision governing dam operations. The impact

335

Understanding Regional Economic Growth in IndiaUnderstanding Regional Economic Growth in India Understanding Regional Economic  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Understanding Regional Economic Growth in IndiaUnderstanding Regional Economic Growth in India Understanding Regional Economic Growth in India* Jeffrey D. Sachs Director The Earth Institute at Columbia_ramiah@yahoo.co.uk Asian Economic Papers 1:3 © 2002 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts

336

Report: Technical Uncertainty and Risk Reduction  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

TECHNICAL UNCERTAINTY AND RISK REDUCTION TECHNICAL UNCERTAINTY AND RISK REDUCTION Background In FY 2007 EMAB was tasked to assess EM's ability to reduce risk and technical uncertainty. Board members explored this topic throughout the year as a component of their focus on the previously discussed topic of Discretionary Budgeting. Discussion Understanding the risks and variability associated with EM's projects is a challenging task that has the potential to significantly impact the program's established baselines. According to budget personnel, EM has established a database of baseline variables and possibilities; however, this tool is project-specific and does not apply to the greater complex. The Board believes that EM could benefit from incorporating an additional and more comprehensive data point into the baseline development process that budgets

337

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Outlook Price Uncertainty-January 2010 Outlook Price Uncertainty-January 2010 1 January 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 January 12, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged $74.50 per barrel in December 2009, about $3.50 per barrel lower than the prior month's average. The WTI spot price fell from $78 to $70 during the first 2 weeks of December, but colder-than-normal weather and U.S. crude oil and product inventory draws that exceeded the December 5-year averages helped push it back up to $79 per barrel by the end of the month. EIA forecasts that WTI spot prices will weaken over

338

Jobs Creation Economic Recovery  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Commission (Energy Commission) collects the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) jobs creation and retention data (jobs data) from its subrecipients through the Energy Commission's ARRAJobs Creation and Economic Recovery Prompt, Fair, and Reasonable Use of ARRA Funds Subrecipient

339

Conservation IEAB Independent Economic  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Interactions Between the Fish and Wildlife Program andand Wildlife Program and the Sixth Power Plan (Phase 1)the Sixth and the Fish and Wildlife ProgramProgram #12;Northwest Power and Conservation Council IEAB Independent Economic integration of wind and solar generationImpacts from integration of wind and solar generation Impacts from

340

Microsoft PowerPoint - GlobalOilEcon.ppt  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Globalization, Oil Prices and Globalization, Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Activity Stephen Brown Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2008 Energy Conference U.S. Energy Information Administration Globalization, Oil Price Shocks and U.S. Economic Activity Nathan Balke, Stephen Brown, Mine Yücel March 31, 2008 I. Introduction. What are the economic consequences to the United States of an increase in the oil price? Conventional thinking: oil supply shock * Higher oil price * Slower GDP growth * Increased price level Real oil price and recessions (shaded) Index, 1982 = 100 0 30 60 90 120 150 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 Empirical evidence of a negative relationship is mixed: For: Mork and Hall (1980), Hamilton (1983, 2003), Balke, Brown, and Yücel (2002), Hamilton and Herrera (2004),

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) Model | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) Model Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) Model Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP green logo.png FIND MORE DIA TOOLS This tool is part of the Development Impacts Assessment (DIA) Toolkit from the LEDS Global Partnership. Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: REMI Agency/Company /Organization: Regional Economic Models Inc. Sector: Energy Focus Area: Transportation Phase: Determine Baseline, Develop Goals Topics: Baseline projection, GHG inventory, Pathways analysis Resource Type: Software/modeling tools User Interface: Desktop Application Complexity/Ease of Use: Moderate Website: www.remi.com/ Cost: Paid References: http://www.remi.com/index.php?page=overview&hl=en_US Related Tools Job and Economic Development Impact Models (JEDI) The Integrated Environmental Strategies Handbook: A Resource Guide for Air Quality Planning

342

Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...carbon savings from biofuels in Brazil . Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107 : 3388...generation biofuel targets . Energy Policy , 10.1016/j.enpol...Syst 84:121 ZZQQhy153. 19. Renewable Fuels Agency (2008) The Gallagher...of Bio-fuel Production (Renewable Fuels Agency, St Leonards-on-Sea...

Eric F. Lambin; Patrick Meyfroidt

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

343

Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...policy mandates of petroleum substitution by biofuels...by increasing imports of agricultural or...area embodied in exports (20). In 1994, 35...their cereal imports per capita by 42...conservation programs in China and Finland have...through wood imports (40). In the 19th...account their exports of agricultural...

Eric F. Lambin; Patrick Meyfroidt

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

344

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF CARBON SEQUESTRATION UNDER CATASTROPHIC RISK AND PRICE UNCERTAINTY IN KENTUCKY.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Internalizing carbon value for forest landowners has the potential to increase carbon supply in forest and mitigate CO2 in the atmosphere. In this study, we (more)

Hu, Lijiao

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

345

Chapter 30 - Biofuel Economics and Policy: The Renewable Fuel Standard, the Blend Wall, and Future Uncertainties  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Biofuels are currently in a state of flux. The main operative policy for biofuels in the United States is the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). It specifies a minimum quantity of four different types of biofuels that must be blended each year in the United States through 2022. However, the United States also faces what is called the blend wall, which is a physical limit on blending given that the United States blends at a 10% rate. The blend wall upper limit is now below the RFS lower limit for corn ethanol, and that is causing problems with the administration of the RFS. This chapter explains how the RFS functions and then examines alternatives to the current administration of the RFS. The RFS is critical for cellulosic biofuels and biodiesel, and its elimination would likely end use of those fuels. Corn ethanol, however, is now much less expensive than gasoline and would continue.

Wallace E. Tyner

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

346

An evaluation of robust controls for passive building thermal mass and mechanical thermal energy storage under uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Passive building thermal mass and mechanical thermal energy storage (TES) are known as one of state-of-the-art demand-side control instruments. Specifically, Model-based Predictive Control (MPC) for this operation has the potential to significantly increase performance and bring economic advantages. However, due to the uncertainty in certain operating conditions in the field, its control effectiveness could be diminished and/or seriously damaged, which results in poor performance. This study pursues improvements of the control performance of both thermal inventories under uncertainty by proposing a robust MPC in which relevant uncertainty sources are compiled; therefore, it is designed to perform more stable than traditional \\{MPCs\\} under uncertain conditions. Uniqueness and superiority of the proposed robust demand-side controls include: (i) Controls are developed based on the a priori uncertainty assessment, such that a systematic modeling approach for uncertainty was taken according to characteristics and classifications of uncertainty. (ii) The robust MPC reduces the variability of performance under varied and non-indigenous conditions compared to the deterministic MPC, and thus can avoid the worst case situation.

Sean Hay Kim

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

347

Accounting for Parameter Uncertainty in Reservoir Uncertainty Assessment: The Conditional Finite-Domain Approach  

SciTech Connect

An important aim of modern geostatistical modeling is to quantify uncertainty in geological systems. Geostatistical modeling requires many input parameters. The input univariate distribution or histogram is perhaps the most important. A new method for assessing uncertainty in the histogram, particularly uncertainty in the mean, is presented. This method, referred to as the conditional finite-domain (CFD) approach, accounts for the size of the domain and the local conditioning data. It is a stochastic approach based on a multivariate Gaussian distribution. The CFD approach is shown to be convergent, design independent, and parameterization invariant. The performance of the CFD approach is illustrated in a case study focusing on the impact of the number of data and the range of correlation on the limiting uncertainty in the parameters. The spatial bootstrap method and CFD approach are compared. As the number of data increases, uncertainty in the sample mean decreases in both the spatial bootstrap and the CFD. Contrary to spatial bootstrap, uncertainty in the sample mean in the CFD approach decreases as the range of correlation increases. This is a direct result of the conditioning data being more correlated to unsampled locations in the finite domain. The sensitivity of the limiting uncertainty relative to the variogram and the variable limits are also discussed.

Babak, Olena, E-mail: obabak@ualberta.ca; Deutsch, Clayton V. [University of Alberta, Centre for Computational Geostatistics, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (Canada)], E-mail: cdeutsch@ualberta.ca

2009-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

348

Analysing Uncertainties for CCS: From Historical Analogues to Future Deployment Pathways in the UK  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Whilst carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies are now in the demonstration phase, they are still characterised by a range of technical, economic, policy, social and legal uncertainties. This paper presents the results of an interdisciplinary research project funded by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC). The aim of the project was to analyse the main uncertainties facing potential investors in CCS and policy makers wishing to support these technologies through demonstration to commercial deployment. The paper presents a framework for the analysis of these uncertainties, and applies this framework to nine analogue case studies of CCS. These case studies have focused on historical developments in technologies and/or policy frameworks where one or more of these uncertainties has been prominent and have, in most cases, been partly resolved. The paper also shows applies the insights from these historical case studies to develop three potential pathways for CCS deployment in the UK over the period to 2030. Finally, the paper concludes with some implications for CCS policies and strategies.

Hannah Chalmers; Jon Gibbins; Rob Gross; Stuart Haszeldine; Phil Heptonstall; Florian Kern; Nils Markusson; Peter Pearson; Jim Watson; Mark Winskel

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

349

Climate change and beyond: models and uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

surface currents head polewards from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, cooling all the while. Having lost 2 / 29 #12;Thermohaline circulation 2 / 29 · Global ocean circulation is driven by winds and the exchange of heat and water vapour at the sea surface. #12;Thermohaline circulation 2 / 29 · Global ocean

Wirosoetisno, Djoko

350

UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE SENSITIVITY: CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES, CHALLENGES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

remarks #12;GLOBAL ENERGY BALANCE Global and annual average energy fluxes in watts per square meter 2008 DOI: 10.1039/b810350j Fossil fuels supply about 85% of the world's primary energy, and future use fuels will likely be limited by controls on the emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere

Schwartz, Stephen E.

351

Uncertainty in local determination of anisotropy parameters  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. For the walkaway line with the best data quality, the analysis clearly shows that the shale in which the VSP tool is placed is anisotropic and that the symmetry axis is inclined from vertical. Nevertheless, the uncertainty recorded by the VSP tool. The three VSP tool placements were in massive homogeneous shales. The geologic

Cerveny, Vlastislav

352

COMPARISON OF UNCERTAINTY PARAMETERISATIONS FOR H ROBUST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

PROBLEM The plant to be controlled is a turbocharged pas- senger car diesel engine equipped with exhaust. Diesel engine setup. The second feedback path from the exhaust to the intake manifold is due to exhaustCOMPARISON OF UNCERTAINTY PARAMETERISATIONS FOR H ROBUST CONTROL OF TURBOCHARGED DIESEL ENGINES

Cambridge, University of

353

Nuclear power expansion: thinking about uncertainty  

SciTech Connect

Nuclear power is one of many options available to achieve reduced carbon dioxide emissions. The real-option value model can help explain the uncertainties facing prospective nuclear plant developers in developing mitigation strategies for the development, construction, and operation of new nuclear plants. (author)

Holt, Lynne; Sotkiewicz, Paul; Berg, Sanford

2010-06-15T23:59:59.000Z

354

Manfred Huber 2011 1 Reasoning with Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Logic - Applications Many everyday applications use Fuzzy Logic control Microwaves ABS brakes Camera Huber 2011 6 Fuzzy Inference (Control) Fuzzy Logic uses logic inference rules and defuzzification© Manfred Huber 2011 1 Reasoning with Uncertainty Fuzzy Logic #12;© Manfred Huber 2011 2 Fuzzy

Huber, Manfred

355

Uncertainty in Quantitative Thin-Layer Chromatography  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......and cross-border issues force analysts not only to standardize...uncertainty is developed for fundamental metrological research and is...New York, NY, 1987. 7. Handbook of Thin-Layer Chromatography...New York, NY, 1994. 9. Handbook of Thin-Layer Chromatography......

Mirko Prosek; Alenka Golc-Wondra; Irena Vovk

356

Senior Center Network Redesign Under Demand Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Senior Center Network Redesign Under Demand Uncertainty Osman Y. ¨Ozaltin Department of Industrial of Massachusetts Boston, Boston, MA 02125-3393, USA, michael.johnson@umb.edu Andrew J. Schaefer Department. In response, we propose a two-echelon network of senior centers. We for- mulate a two-stage stochastic

Schaefer, Andrew

357

Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

358

Economic Impact & Diversity  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

ECONOMIC IMPACT AND DIVERSITY ECONOMIC IMPACT AND DIVERSITY FOURTH QUARTER STATUS (As of August 10, 2006) Executive Summary: ED is responsible for managing the department's on-going small business programs, Affirmative Action programs, Employee Concerns program, EEO programs, and the Department's Minority Education program. ED serves as the support office for department-wide efforts to broaden and/or diversify the Department's base as it relates to employment, contracting and financial assistance awards. Where we are today: ED finalized the reorganization/restructuring process which reduced the offices within ED from five to three. Along with this process, ED moved the Employee Concerns and Special Emphasis activities and personnel to the Office of Civil Rights and Diversity

359

Secretary Bodman Meets with Global Energy Ministers at the International  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Global Energy Ministers at the Global Energy Ministers at the International Energy Forum in Qatar Secretary Bodman Meets with Global Energy Ministers at the International Energy Forum in Qatar April 24, 2006 - 10:25am Addthis Bodman emphasizes the need for international cooperation to improve global energy security DOHA, QATAR - U.S. Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bodman attended the 10th International Energy Forum (IEF) in Doha, Qatar, today to discuss the need for international efforts to increase individual and global energy security and encourage market stability. Energy Ministers from the world's major producing and consuming nations were in attendance at the meeting taking place April 23-24, 2006. "In order to sustain the strong global economic growth we've seen in recent years, consumers and producers must work together to encourage transparency

360

Economic Partnership, IDB ink deal  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

18 May 2010 00:00 Economic Partnership, IDB ink deal The Oak Ridge Industrial Development Board (IDB) signed an agreement with the Oak Ridge Economic Partnership on Friday hiring...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Refund for Economic Development (Texas)  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

The Refund for Economic Development under the Tax Code for state tax refunds for economic development. Some Texas property owners may be eligible to receive refunds of state sales and use taxes and...

362

Cows Causing Global Warming  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Broadcast Transcript: Remember when President Reagan blamed trees for air pollution? Well now the Japanese are blaming cows for global warming. Apparently, the methane emissions from burping cows account for 5% of all global greenhouse gases. Simple...

Hacker, Randi

2008-08-06T23:59:59.000Z

363

Curing | GE Global Research  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

this paper-based instrument, the size of a deck of playing cards, enables... Read More Additive Manufacturing Demonstration at GE Global Research See how GE Global Research is...

364

Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.  

SciTech Connect

Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to the economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Kelic, Andjelka; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

365

IEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and Estuary (Buoy 10) Figure 7: The Fisheries Economic Assessment Model Process Figure 8: Columbia RiverIEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board Roger Mann, Chair Noelwah R. Netusil, Vice-Chair Kenneth L. Casavant Daniel D. Huppert Joel R. Hamilton Lon L. Peters Susan S. Hanna Hans Radtke A I - 1 Economic

366

Economic Sustainability and Ecological Compatibility  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic Sustainability and Ecological Compatibility: Where is the room to move? October 21st - 22: Economic Sustainability and Ecological Compatibility: Where is the room to move? October 21st - 22nd , 2010, Economic Sustainability: Room to Move? Workshop Hosted by Colorado Forest Restoration Institute Walden

367

Philosophy & Economics "Made in Germany"  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Philosophy & Economics "Made in Germany" The Bachelor and Master Programmes at a Glance 2011 #12 course of studies in philosophy and economics. The aim is to provide a rigorous training for understanding complex social, economic, and political decision-making. · The philosophy curriculum is focused

Müller, Cord

368

Economic Man'' Dominate Social Behavior?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

When Does `` Economic Man'' Dominate Social Behavior? Colin F. Camerer1 * and Ernst Fehr2,3 The canonical model in economics considers people to be rational and self-regarding. However, much evidence challenges this view, raising the question of when `` Economic Man'' dominates the outcome of social

Greer, Julia R.

369

The Economic State of Milwaukee's  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The Economic State of Milwaukee's Inner City: 2006 A report prepared by The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Center for Economic Development May 2006 #12;About this Report This report was produced at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Center for Economic Development (UWMCED), a unit of the College of Letters and Science

Saldin, Dilano

370

The Global Cybercrime Industry and Its Structure: Relevant Actors, Motivations, Threats, and Countermeasures  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The meteoric rise in cybercrime has been an issue of pressing concern to our society. Cybercrime is global and organized. This chapter deals with definitional issues; analyses economic, social, and political i...

Dr. Nir Kshetri

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

371

Emotions in economic action and interaction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

actors during the economic process where emotional currentsthat influence economic processes, including networks,to the analyses of economic processes. The most prominent

Bandelj, Nina

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

372

Evaluating Economizer Use In Data Centers  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Evaluating Economizer Use in Data Centers Benjamin Chu,eelet Keywords: Data centers, economizers, HVAC, indoor airfor data centers are economizers, which turn off the power

Chu, Benjamin

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

Data Center Economizer Contamination and Humidity Study  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Program Data Center Economizer Contamination and Humiditylevels for computers. Air economizer cycles, which bring insites to determine how economizers affect humidity control.

Shehabi, Arman

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

The Area of Energy, Economics and Law offers two academic credentials: the Energy Commerce degree and the Certificate in Energy. Students learn industry  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

while studying the current world energy mix, the economic decisions businesses must make, laws IN APPLIED ECONOMICS "The energy business is the world's largest and most globalized industry. Everyone Industry Fundamentals · Energy & Environmental Economics · Exploration & Production Techniques · U

Westfall, Peter H.

375

Supporting qualified database for uncertainty evaluation  

SciTech Connect

Uncertainty evaluation constitutes a key feature of BEPU (Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty) process. The uncertainty can be the result of a Monte Carlo type analysis involving input uncertainty parameters or the outcome of a process involving the use of experimental data and connected code calculations. Those uncertainty methods are discussed in several papers and guidelines (IAEA-SRS-52, OECD/NEA BEMUSE reports). The present paper aims at discussing the role and the depth of the analysis required for merging from one side suitable experimental data and on the other side qualified code calculation results. This aspect is mostly connected with the second approach for uncertainty mentioned above, but it can be used also in the framework of the first approach. Namely, the paper discusses the features and structure of the database that includes the following kinds of documents: 1. The' RDS-facility' (Reference Data Set for the selected facility): this includes the description of the facility, the geometrical characterization of any component of the facility, the instrumentations, the data acquisition system, the evaluation of pressure losses, the physical properties of the material and the characterization of pumps, valves and heat losses; 2. The 'RDS-test' (Reference Data Set for the selected test of the facility): this includes the description of the main phenomena investigated during the test, the configuration of the facility for the selected test (possible new evaluation of pressure and heat losses if needed) and the specific boundary and initial conditions; 3. The 'QR' (Qualification Report) of the code calculation results: this includes the description of the nodalization developed following a set of homogeneous techniques, the achievement of the steady state conditions and the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the transient with the characterization of the Relevant Thermal-Hydraulics Aspects (RTA); 4. The EH (Engineering Handbook) of the input nodalization: this includes the rationale adopted for each part of the nodalization, the user choices, and the systematic derivation and justification of any value present in the code input respect to the values as indicated in the RDS-facility and in the RDS-test. (authors)

Petruzzi, A.; Fiori, F.; Kovtonyuk, A.; D'Auria, F. [Nuclear Research Group of San Piero A Grado, Univ. of Pisa, Via Livornese 1291, 56122 Pisa (Italy)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

376

Local effects of global warming.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Currently, global warming is a focus of attention. In order to scientifically evaluate evidence about global warming, and prove the existence of global warming, this (more)

Lu, Jun

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

377

Introduction Literature Review Supply Chain Network Model Simulation Studies Conclusions Supply Chain Networks with Global Outsourcing and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Chain Networks with Global Outsourcing and Quick-Response Production under Demand and Cost Uncertainty Literature review Supply chain network with global outsourcing and quick-response production under demand of Management University of Massachusetts at Amherst INFORMS 2012 Annual Meeting, Nov 13-16, 2011 #12

Nagurney, Anna

378

Introduction Literature Review Supply Chain Network Model Simulation Studies Conclusions Supply Chain Networks with Global Outsourcing and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Chain Networks with Global Outsourcing and Quick-Response Production under Demand and Cost Uncertainty Literature review Supply chain network with global outsourcing and quick-response production under demand of Management University of Massachusetts at Amherst INFORMS 2012 Annual Meeting, Oct 14-17, 2012 #12

Nagurney, Anna

379

Introduction Literature Review Supply Chain Network Model Simulation Studies Conclusions Supply Chain Networks with Global Outsourcing and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Chain Networks with Global Outsourcing and Quick-Response Production under Demand and Cost Uncertainty of Management University of Massachusetts at Amherst DSI 2012 Annual Meeting, Nov 17-20, 2012 San Francisco, CA Introduction Literature review Supply chain network with global outsourcing and quick-response production under

Nagurney, Anna

380

Infection processes on networks with structural uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Over the last ten years, the interest in network phenomena and the potential for a global pandemic have produced a tremendous volume of research exploring the consequences of human interaction patterns for disease propagation. ...

Zager, Laura (Laura A.)

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Interpolation Uncertainties Across the ARM SGP Area  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Interpolation Uncertainties Across the ARM SGP Area Interpolation Uncertainties Across the ARM SGP Area J. E. Christy, C. N. Long, and T. R. Shippert Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland, Washington Interpolation Grids Across the SGP Network Area The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program operates a network of surface radiation measurement sites across north central Oklahoma and south central Kansas. This Southern Great Plains (SGP) network consists of 21 sites unevenly spaced from 95.5 to 99.5 degrees west longitude, and from 34.5 to 38.5 degrees north latitude. We use the technique outlined by Long and Ackerman (2000) and Long et al. (1999) to infer continuous estimates of clear-sky downwelling shortwave (SW) irradiance, SW cloud effect, and daylight fractional sky cover for each

382

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 July 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 July 7, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $75.34 per barrel in June 2010 ($1.60 per barrel above the prior month's average), close to the $76 per barrel projected in the forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $79 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $84 by the end of next year (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart). Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, as history has shown (Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty). WTI futures for September 2010 delivery for the

383

Uncertainty quantification for porous media flows  

SciTech Connect

Uncertainty quantification is an increasingly important aspect of many areas of computational science, where the challenge is to make reliable predictions about the performance of complex physical systems in the absence of complete or reliable data. Predicting flows of oil and water through oil reservoirs is an example of a complex system where accuracy in prediction is needed primarily for financial reasons. Simulation of fluid flow in oil reservoirs is usually carried out using large commercially written finite difference simulators solving conservation equations describing the multi-phase flow through the porous reservoir rocks. This paper examines a Bayesian Framework for uncertainty quantification in porous media flows that uses a stochastic sampling algorithm to generate models that match observed data. Machine learning algorithms are used to speed up the identification of regions in parameter space where good matches to observed data can be found.

Christie, Mike [Institute of Petroleum Engineering, Heriot-Watt University, Riccarton, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, Scotland (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: mike.christie@pet.hw.ac.uk; Demyanov, Vasily [Institute of Petroleum Engineering, Heriot-Watt University, Riccarton, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, Scotland (United Kingdom); Erbas, Demet [Institute of Petroleum Engineering, Heriot-Watt University, Riccarton, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, Scotland (United Kingdom)

2006-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Penetrator reliability investigation and design exploration : from conventional design processes to innovative uncertainty-capturing algorithms.  

SciTech Connect

This project focused on research and algorithmic development in optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problems driven by earth penetrator (EP) designs. While taking into account uncertainty, we addressed three challenges in current simulation-based engineering design and analysis processes. The first challenge required leveraging small local samples, already constructed by optimization algorithms, to build effective surrogate models. We used Gaussian Process (GP) models to construct these surrogates. We developed two OUU algorithms using 'local' GPs (OUU-LGP) and one OUU algorithm using 'global' GPs (OUU-GGP) that appear competitive or better than current methods. The second challenge was to develop a methodical design process based on multi-resolution, multi-fidelity models. We developed a Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Auto-regressive process (MF-BAP). The third challenge involved the development of tools that are computational feasible and accessible. We created MATLAB{reg_sign} and initial DAKOTA implementations of our algorithms.

Martinez-Canales, Monica L.; Heaphy, Robert (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Gramacy, Robert B. (University of Cambridge); Taddy, Matt (University of California, Santa Cruz, CA); Chiesa, Michael L.; Thomas, Stephen W. (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Swiler, Laura Painton (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Hough, Patricia Diane; Lee, Herbert K. H. (University of California, Santa Cruz, CA); Trucano, Timothy Guy (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Gray, Genetha Anne

2006-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

Study of Monte Carlo approach to experimental uncertainty propagation with MSTW 2008 PDFs  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We investigate the Monte Carlo approach to propagation of experimental uncertainties within the context of the established "MSTW 2008" global analysis of parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton at next-to-leading order in the strong coupling. We show that the Monte Carlo approach using replicas of the original data gives PDF uncertainties in good agreement with the usual Hessian approach using the standard Delta(chi^2) = 1 criterion, then we explore potential parameterisation bias by increasing the number of free parameters, concluding that any parameterisation bias is likely to be small, with the exception of the valence-quark distributions at low momentum fractions x. We motivate the need for a larger tolerance, Delta(chi^2) > 1, by making fits to restricted data sets and idealised consistent or inconsistent pseudodata. Instead of using data replicas, we alternatively produce PDF sets randomly distributed according to the covariance matrix of fit parameters including appropriate tolerance values,...

Watt, G

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

Polynomial regression with derivative information in nuclear reactor uncertainty quantification*  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA b Nuclear Engineering Division, Argonne National Laboratory1 Polynomial regression with derivative information in nuclear reactor uncertainty quantification, Argonne, IL, USA Abstract. We introduce a novel technique of uncertainty quantification using polynomial

Anitescu, Mihai

387

Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the uncertainty in ...

Webster, Mort David.; Forest, Chris Eliot.; Reilly, John M.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Mayer, Monika.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H.; Wang, Chien.

388

A Framework for Modeling Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the US associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources ...

Monier, Erwan

389

Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Building Operations and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Building Operations and Weather for a Medium between predicted and actual building energy consumption can be attributed to uncertainties introduced in energy consumption due to actual weather and building operational practices, using a simulation

390

Jet energy scale uncertainty correlations between ATLAS and CMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The correlation of the jet energy scale uncertainties between the ATLAS and CMS experiments are presented in this note. The uncertainty components for both experiments are grouped into categories. For each of these categories, the detailed

CMS Collaboration

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

391

Application Form Certificate Program in Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Uncertainty Analysis (3 credits): Nuclear Engineering 602 Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers of Engineering University of Wisconsin-Madison Personal Information: Name: __________________________ Department of Engineering Physics, College of Engineering, UW-Madison, 147 Engineering Research Building, 1500 Engineering

Van Veen, Barry D.

392

Quantifying Sources of Uncertainty in Projections of Future Climate  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A simple statistical model is used to partition uncertainty from different sources, in projections of future climate from multimodel ensembles. Three major sources of uncertainty are considered: the choice of climate model, the choice of emissions ...

Paul J. Northrop; Richard E. Chandler

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

Economics of Alaska North Slope gas utilization options  

SciTech Connect

The recoverable natural gas available for sale in the developed and known undeveloped fields on the Alaskan North Slope (ANS) total about 26 trillion cubic feet (TCF), including 22 TCF in the Prudhoe Bay Unit (PBU) and 3 TCF in the undeveloped Point Thomson Unit (PTU). No significant commercial use has been made of this large natural gas resource because there are no facilities in place to transport this gas to current markets. To date the economics have not been favorable to support development of a gas transportation system. However, with the declining trend in ANS oil production, interest in development of this huge gas resource is rising, making it important for the U.S. Department of Energy, industry, and the State of Alaska to evaluate and assess the options for development of this vast gas resource. The purpose of this study was to assess whether gas-to-liquids (GTL) conversion technology would be an economic alternative for the development and sale of the large, remote, and currently unmarketable ANS natural gas resource, and to compare the long term economic impact of a GTL conversion option to that of the more frequently discussed natural gas pipeline/liquefied natural gas (LNG) option. The major components of the study are: an assessment of the ANS oil and gas resources; an analysis of conversion and transportation options; a review of natural gas, LNG, and selected oil product markets; and an economic analysis of the LNG and GTL gas sales options based on publicly available input needed for assumptions of the economic variables. Uncertainties in assumptions are evaluated by determining the sensitivity of project economics to changes in baseline economic variables.

Thomas, C.P.; Doughty, T.C.; Hackworth, J.H.; North, W.B.; Robertson, E.P.

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

394

Comparative life cycle energy, emission, and economic analysis of 100kW nameplate wind power generation  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study compares three configurations of wind turbines to produce a nameplate power of 100kW applying LCA methodology over a lifetime of 25 years. Alternatives under study are: installing twenty Endurance (EN) 5kW, or five Jacobs (JA) 20kW, or one Northern Power (NP) 100kW turbines in the Halkirk region of Alberta, Canada. The comparison has been done taking life cycle energy, environment and economic aspects into consideration. Each parameter has been quantified corresponding to a functional unit (FU) of 1kWh. Life cycle energy requirement for NP is found to be 133.3kJ/kWh, which is about 69% and 41% less than EN and JA respectively. Global warming impact from NP is found to be 17.8gCO2eq/kWh, which is around 58% and 29% less respective to EN and JA. The acidification (SO2eq/kWh) and ground level ozone [(VOC+NOx)/kWh] impacts from NP are also found significantly less compared to EN and JA configuration. The difference in relative environmental impacts from configurations is found to be less while performing uncertainty analysis, but does not alter the ranking of configurations. At 10% internal rate of return (IRR), electricity price for NP is 0.21$/kWh, whereas EN and JA prices are 65% and 16% higher respectively.

Md Ruhul Kabir; Braden Rooke; G.D. Malinga Dassanayake; Brian A. Fleck

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

Quantification of uncertainty during history matching  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

technology requirements and possibly marginal investment indicators. Our method of quantifying uncertainty uses a set of history-match runs and includes a method to determine the probability density function (pdf) of future oil production (reserves... side)?????. 29 3.16 Marginal cumulative oil production correlates well with total error?.. 32 ix FIGURE Page 3.17 Weighted standard deviation is smaller than non weighted?..?..?? 37 3.18 Shows sets of weighted and non weighted mean...

Alvarado, Martin Guillermo

2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

396

Information-Disturbance theorem and Uncertainty Relation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

It has been shown that Information-Disturbance theorem can play an important role in security proof of quantum cryptography. The theorem is by itself interesting since it can be regarded as an information theoretic version of uncertainty principle. It, however, has been able to treat restricted situations. In this paper, the restriction on the source is abandoned, and a general information-disturbance theorem is obtained. The theorem relates information gain by Eve with information gain by Bob.

Takayuki Miyadera; Hideki Imai

2007-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

397

Entropic uncertainties for joint quantum measurements  

SciTech Connect

We investigate the uncertainty associated with a joint quantum measurement of two spin components of a spin-(1/2) particle and quantify this in terms of entropy. We consider two entropic quantities, the joint entropy and the sum of the marginal entropies, and obtain lower bounds for each of these quantities. For the case of joint measurements where we measure each spin observable equally well, these lower bounds are tight.

Brougham, Thomas [Department of Physics, FJFI, CVUT, Brehova 7, 115 19 Praha 1 (Czech Republic); SUPA, Department of Physics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G4 ONG (United Kingdom); Andersson, Erika [SUPA, Department of Physics, School of EPS, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4As (United Kingdom); Barnett, Stephen M. [SUPA, Department of Physics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G4 ONG (United Kingdom)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

398

Global Climate Change Links  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Global Climate Change Links Global Climate Change Links This page provides links to web pages that we at CDIAC feel do a responsible job of presenting information and discussion pertinent to the science behind the global climate change ("global warming") debate. These sites include those on both sides of the debate; some asserting that global warming is a clear and present danger, and others that might be labeled global warming "skeptics." Some of these sites don't take a position per se; they exist to offer the public objective scientific information and results on our present understanding of the climate system. The list is not intended to be comprehensive, by any means. We hope it will be especially helpful for those who may be just beginning their research into global

399

Potential and economic viability of standalone hybrid systems for a rural community of Sokoto, North-west Nigeria  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An assessment of the potential and economic viability of standalone hybrid systems for an off-grid rural community of ... Meteorological Department, Oshodi, Lagos (daily mean wind speeds, and daily global solar r...

O. D. Ohijeagbon; Oluseyi. O. Ajayi

2014-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Challenges, uncertainties and issues facing gas production from gas hydrate deposits  

SciTech Connect

The current paper complements the Moridis et al. (2009) review of the status of the effort toward commercial gas production from hydrates. We aim to describe the concept of the gas hydrate petroleum system, to discuss advances, requirement and suggested practices in gas hydrate (GH) prospecting and GH deposit characterization, and to review the associated technical, economic and environmental challenges and uncertainties, including: the accurate assessment of producible fractions of the GH resource, the development of methodologies for identifying suitable production targets, the sampling of hydrate-bearing sediments and sample analysis, the analysis and interpretation of geophysical surveys of GH reservoirs, well testing methods and interpretation of the results, geomechanical and reservoir/well stability concerns, well design, operation and installation, field operations and extending production beyond sand-dominated GH reservoirs, monitoring production and geomechanical stability, laboratory investigations, fundamental knowledge of hydrate behavior, the economics of commercial gas production from hydrates, and the associated environmental concerns.

Moridis, G.J.; Collett, T.S.; Pooladi-Darvish, M.; Hancock, S.; Santamarina, C.; Boswell, R.; Kneafsey, T.; Rutqvist, J.; Kowalsky, M.; Reagan, M.T.; Sloan, E.D.; Sum, A.K.; Koh, C.

2010-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities  

SciTech Connect

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

402

Generalized Uncertainty Principle: Approaches and Applications  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We review highlights from string theory, black hole physics and doubly special relativity and some "thought" experiments which were suggested to probe the shortest distance and/or the maximum momentum at the Planck scale. The models which are designed to implement the minimal length scale and/or the maximum momentum in different physical systems are analysed entered the literature as the Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP). We compare between them. The existence of a minimal length and a maximum momentum accuracy is preferred by various physical observations. Furthermore, assuming modified dispersion relation allows for a wide range of applications in estimating, for example, the inflationary parameters, Lorentz invariance violation, black hole thermodynamics, Saleker-Wigner inequalities, entropic nature of the gravitational laws, Friedmann equations, minimal time measurement and thermodynamics of the high-energy collisions. One of the higher-order GUP approaches gives predictions for the minimal length uncertainty. Another one predicts a maximum momentum and a minimal length uncertainty, simultaneously. An extensive comparison between the different GUP approaches is summarized. We also discuss the GUP impacts on the equivalence principles including the universality of the gravitational redshift and the free fall and law of reciprocal action and on the kinetic energy of composite system. The concern about the compatibility with the equivalence principles, the universality of gravitational redshift and the free fall and law of reciprocal action should be addressed. We conclude that the value of the GUP parameters remain a puzzle to be verified.

Abdel Nasser Tawfik; Abdel Magied Diab

2014-11-23T23:59:59.000Z

403

October 16, 2014 Webinar- Decisional Analysis under Uncertainty  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

Webinar October 16, 2014, 11 am 12:40 pm EDT: Dr. Paul Black (Neptune, Inc), Decisional Analysis under Uncertainty

404

Validation and Uncertainty Quantification in the Consortium for...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

and Uncertainty Quantification Advanced Modeling Applications Materials Performance and Optimization Virtual Reactor Integration Radiation Transport & Thermal Hydraulics CASLVUQ...

405

Financial Engineering Proposal Department of Agricultural Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Financial Engineering Proposal Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics and Department engineering is a multidisciplinary field that emphasizes the engineering of new financial economic instruments the Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering and the Department of Agricultural Economics

Lawrence, Rick L.

406

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE APPALACHIAN GATEWAY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE APPALACHIAN GATEWAY PROJECT By Randall A. Childs Bureau of Business and Economic Research College of Business and Economics West Virginia University United States where demand is strong. This report documents the economic impact of the Appalachian

Mohaghegh, Shahab

407

Economic Impact of the Florida Apiculture Industry  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Economic Impact of the Florida Apiculture Industry Economics Report 01-1 By Alan Hodges, David and Agricultural Sciences Department of Food & Resource Economics Department of Entomology/ Nematology Gainesville .......................................................................................................................................12 Economic Impact Analysis

Florida, University of

408

Exploiting Active Subspaces to Quantify Uncertainty in the Numerical Simulation of the HyShot II Scramjet  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We present a computational analysis of the reactive flow in a hypersonic scramjet engine with emphasis on effects of uncertainties in the operating conditions. We employ a novel methodology based on active subspaces to characterize the effects of the input uncertainty on the scramjet performance. The active subspace re-parameterizes the operating conditions from seven well characterized physical parameters to a single derived active variable. This dimension reduction enables otherwise intractable---given the cost of the simulation---computational studies to quantify uncertainty; bootstrapping provides confidence intervals on the studies' results. In particular we (i) identify the parameters that contribute the most to the variation in the output quantity of interest, (ii) compute a global upper and lower bound on the quantity of interest, and (iii) classify sets of operating conditions as safe or unsafe corresponding to a threshold on the output quantity of interest. We repeat this analysis for two values of ...

Constantine, Paul; Larsson, Johan; Iaccarino, Gianluca

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

409

MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

a methodology for integrating the health effects from exposure to air pollution into the MIT EmissionsMIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Economic Benefits of Air Pollution paper #12;1 Economic Benefits of Air Pollution Regulation in the USA: An Integrated Approach Trent Yang

410

Climate change and the socioeconomics of global food production: A quantitative analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Climate change and the socioeconomics of global food production: A quantitative analysis of how, Andrew J. Dougill and Piers M. Forster August 2010 Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper No. 29 #12;2 The Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) was established

Rambaut, Andrew

411

Global air quality and climate  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of re?ective (cooling)

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

412

Agricultural and Resource Economics Update  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

global commodity prices, oil price shocks, wages, and pricesof fuel. A continued rise in the price of oil combined with

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

413

Dark Energy from Quantum Uncertainty of Remote Clocks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The observed cosmic acceleration was attributed to a mysterious dark energy in the framework of classical general relativity. The dark energy behaves very similar with vacuum energy in quantum mechanics. However, once the quantum effects are seriously taken into account, it predicts a complete wrong result and leads to a severe fine-tuning. To solve the problem, the exact meaning of time in quantum mechanics is reexamined. We abandon the standard interpretation that time is a global parameter in quantum mechanics, replace it by a quantum dynamical variable playing the role of physical clock. We find that synchronization of two spatially separated clocks can not be precisely realized at quantum level. There is an intrinsic quantum uncertainty of remote simultaneity, which implies an apparent vacuum energy fluctuation and gives an observed dark energy density $\\rho_{de}=\\frac{6}{\\pi}L_{P}^{-2}L_{H}^{-2}$ at leading order, where $L_{P}$ and $L_{H}$ are the Planck and Hubble scale cutoffs. The fraction of the dark energy is given by $\\Omega_{de}=\\frac{2}{\\pi}$ at leading order approximation, which does not evolve with time, so it is "always" comparable to the critical density. This theory is consistent with current cosmic observations.

M. J. Luo

2014-03-03T23:59:59.000Z

414

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect

This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

415

The Value of Economic Reality: Applying Economic Value Added.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??The concept of Economic Value Added (EVA) is a revolutionary way to measure the value of a business. In its simplest form, EVA is a (more)

Phillips, David M

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

416

Engineering and Engineering Skills: What's really needed for global competitiveness  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Engineering and Engineering Skills: What's really needed for global competitiveness Hal Salzman; Social Dimensions of Engineering, Science and Technology #0431755), the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation (with, and editorial assistance by Robb C. Sewell. #12;- 2 - In the midst of a protracted economic crisis, coupled

Lin, Xiaodong

417

A global optimization method for the design of space trajectories  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The problem of optimally designing a trajectory for a space mission is considered in this paper. Actual mission design is a complex, multi-disciplinary and multi-objective activity with relevant economic implications. In this paper we will consider some ... Keywords: Basin hopping, Black-box, Global optimization, Implicit filter, Space trajectories

Bernardetta Addis; Andrea Cassioli; Marco Locatelli; Fabio Schoen

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

418

Reproductive tourism Surrogacy and Globalization International Seminar, 17th  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Reproductive tourism ­ Surrogacy and Globalization International Seminar, 17th of December 2012, 13 technology, fertility and family making have reached new dimensions. Reproductive tourism is the practice-economic issues involved in the practice of reproductive tourism and surrogacy. At this seminar we wish

419

Securing the Sustainability of Global Medical Nuclear Supply Chains  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Securing the Sustainability of Global Medical Nuclear Supply Chains Through Economic Cost Recovery-17, 2012 University of Massachusetts Amherst Securing the Sustainability of Medical Nuclear Supply Chains-2013. University of Massachusetts Amherst Securing the Sustainability of Medical Nuclear Supply Chains #12;This

Nagurney, Anna

420

The Global Forest Resource Assessment FRA2010 and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The Global Forest Resource Assessment FRA2010 and Remote Sensing Survey work by FAO and partners Assessment (FRA) process and 2005 results The new FRA Remote Sensing Survey (RSS) Potential opportunities is for fuel (cooking, light, heat) ·Sustaining forests is an economic and environmental imperative #12;TIMBER

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

The Global Energy Challenge and Possible Solu6ons  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

demand vs. GDP per capita Economic Prosperity Energy Use #12;OIL SUPPLY COSTThe Global Energy Challenge and Possible Solu6ons #12;Popula6on Density #12;Energy Use #12;Popula6on and Energy Use Do Not Correlate #12;Energy

Rubloff, Gary W.

422

On the meaning of feedback parameter, transient climate response, and the greenhouse effect: Basic considerations and the discussion of uncertainties  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this paper we discuss the meaning of feedback parameter, greenhouse effect and transient climate response usually related to the globally averaged energy balance model of Schneider and Mass. After scrutinizing this model and the corresponding planetary radiation balance we state that (a) the this globally averaged energy balance model is flawed by unsuitable physical considerations, (b) the planetary radiation balance for an Earth in the absence of an atmosphere is fraught by the inappropriate assumption of a uniform surface temperature, the so-called radiative equilibrium temperature of about 255 K, and (c) the effect of the radiative anthropogenic forcing, considered as a perturbation to the natural system, is much smaller than the uncertainty involved in the solution of the model of Schneider and Mass. This uncertainty is mainly related to the empirical constants suggested by various authors and used for predicting the emission of infrared radiation by the Earth's skin. Furthermore, after inserting the ...

Kramm, Gerhard

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

423

A Bayesian approach to simultaneously quantify assignments and linguistic uncertainty  

SciTech Connect

Subject matter expert assessments can include both assignment and linguistic uncertainty. This paper examines assessments containing linguistic uncertainty associated with a qualitative description of a specific state of interest and the assignment uncertainty associated with assigning a qualitative value to that state. A Bayesian approach is examined to simultaneously quantify both assignment and linguistic uncertainty in the posterior probability. The approach is applied to a simplified damage assessment model involving both assignment and linguistic uncertainty. The utility of the approach and the conditions under which the approach is feasible are examined and identified.

Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [BOOKER SCIENTIFIC FREDERICKSBURG; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

2010-10-07T23:59:59.000Z

424

2013 Global Carbon Project  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

2013 Global Carbon Project 2013 Global Carbon Project DOI: 10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2013_V1.1 image 2013 Budget v1.1 (November 2013) image 2013 Budget v1.3 (December 2013, contains typographical corrections to 2011 Australia emissions from v1.1 and corrections to the 2011 Australia transfer and consumption emissions from v1.2) image image image image Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions to Reach 36 Billion Tonnes in 2013 Global emissions of carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossil fuels will reach 36 billion tonnes for the year 2013. "This is a level unprecedented in human history," says CSIRO's Dr Pep Canadell, Executive-Director of the Global Carbon Project (GCP) and co-author of a new report. Global emissions due to fossil fuel alone are set to grow this year at a slightly lower pace of 2.1% than the average 3.1% since 2000, reaching 36

425

5, 10751099, 2014 Uncertainty in crop  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway 16 International Institute for Applied System Analysis, New York, USA 24 Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, Vienna, Austria 25 Max Planck of Bonn, Bonn, Germany 28 Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA Received: 28 July 2014 ­ Accepted

Levermann, Anders

426

Free Trade and Global Environmental Governance: Rules, Actors and Conflicts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Free Trade and Global Environmental Governance: Rules, Actors and Conflicts Free Trade and Global Environmental Governance: Rules, Actors and Conflicts Speaker(s): Kate O'Neill Date: September 20, 2001 - 12:00pm Location: Bldg. 90 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Mithra Moezzi This talk will focus on emerging conflicts between different, but overlapping, sectors of global governance - on the one hand, the international economic order as represented by the World Trade Organization, and on the other, the international environmental order, as represented by the extensive network of global environmental regimes. In particular, it focuses on the fears raised by many that the WTO and associated Bretton Woods institutions are likely to undermine efforts by international governmental organizations and other non-state actors to protect the global environment. This fear has been driven in large part by

427

R&D for technology to solve global warming  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Global warming is a problem in which the combustion of coal, oil, and other fossil fuels causes the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), to increase. This results in mounting global air temperatures that lead to climatic change. Specifically, global warming will cause a rise in sea levels, changes in the rain-fall patterns, and other problems. In order to secure the route to solutions for global warming that requires new responses in ways that are compatible with economic growth, it is essential to achieve breakthroughs with innovative technologies. In addition to energ-related R&D, also important are R&D for CO2 absorption and fixation for fundamental solution to global warming. Japan has started the development of innovative environmental technologies, such as technologies for CO2 fixation and utilization.

K. Honjo

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

428

PNNL Global Energy Technology Strategy Program | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Technology Strategy Program Technology Strategy Program (Redirected from Global Energy Technology Strategy Program) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Global Energy Technology Strategy Program Name Global Energy Technology Strategy Program Agency/Company /Organization Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Sector Energy Website http://www.pnl.gov/gtsp/ References Global Energy Technology Strategy Program [1] "Since its inception in 1998, the Global Energy Technology Strategy Program (GTSP) has been assessing the important roles that technology can play in effectively managing the long-term risks of climate change. This involves an integrated approach to fully exploring all aspects of climate change - including scientific, economic, regulatory, and social impacts - and then aligning new or existing technologies to mitigate negative consequences.[1]

429

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models.

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harrison, J.D. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

430

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Late health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA late health effects models.

Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models.

Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Grupa, J.B. [Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (Netherlands)

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

432

Cleantech Professional Resource Global Limited CPR Global | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Professional Resource Global Limited CPR Global Professional Resource Global Limited CPR Global Jump to: navigation, search Name Cleantech Professional Resource Global Limited (CPR Global) Place London, United Kingdom Zip EC4M 9DN Product Cleantech Professional Resource is a resource management consultancy focusing on the cleantech sector in the UK and Europe. References Cleantech Professional Resource Global Limited (CPR Global)[1] LinkedIn Connections CrunchBase Profile No CrunchBase profile. Create one now! This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. Cleantech Professional Resource Global Limited (CPR Global) is a company located in London, United Kingdom . References ↑ "Cleantech Professional Resource Global Limited (CPR Global)" Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Cleantech_Professional_Resource_Global_Limited_CPR_Global&oldid=343687

433

MTBE Production Economics  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

MTBE Production MTBE Production Economics Tancred C. M. Lidderdale Contents 1. Summary 2. MTBE Production Costs 3. Relationship between price of MTBE and Reformulated Gasoline 4. Influence of Natural Gas Prices on the Gasoline Market 5. Regression Results 6. Data Sources 7. End Notes 1. Summary Last year the price of MTBE (methyl tertiary butyl ether) increased dramatically on two occasions (Figure 1) (see Data Sources at end of article.): 1. Between April and June 2000, the price (U.S. Gulf Coast waterborne market) of MTBE rose from $1.00 per gallon to over $1.60 per gallon. This represented an increase in the price premium for MTBE over the wholesale price of conventional gasoline from its normal (1995 though 2000 average) $0.26 per gallon to $0.60 per gallon. The MTBE

434

PNNL: Economic Development Office  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Events Calendar Events Calendar left arrow January 2014 right arrow Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Scheduled events for January 4, 2014 Calendar contains no events. Past Events 2013 September 20, 2013 - Startup Weekend Tri-Cities January 29, 2013 - PTAC Class: Developing Your Capability Statement January 24, 2013 - Economic Outlook Summit January 23, 2013 - Women in Business Conference January 10, 2013 - Venture Investment and Partnering Forum January 07, 2013 - New Routes for U.S.-Japan Collaboration / Ambassadorial Outreach Tour 2012 November 29, 2012 - Innovation Summit October 18, 2012 - Funding for Startups from the National Cancer Institute October 11, 2012 - Career Fair October 09, 2012 - Understanding Government Contracting Solicitations

435

US-China cooperation for global environmental protection  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Dramatic economic changes are taking place in China, increasing China's effect on global climate, and creating opportunities for US-Chin~ cooperation in energy efficiency. China's tremendous economic growth, low energy efficiency and heavy reliance on coal have made it the world's second largest emitter of energy-related greenhouse gases. US technical and economic cooperation with China has been relatively meager, particularly since the events in Tiananmen Square in 1989. A new approach to China that recognizes our common interests as well as areas of conflict can include providing increased support for energy efficiency projects and lifting restrictions on trade programs in China. Promoting energy efficiency will not only reduce the risk of global warming, but will expand the market for US technology and expertise, and will accelerate social progress and the development of a market economy in China.

William U. Chandler; Zhou Dadi; Jessica Hamburger

1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

436

Property:DIA/Topic/Economic | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Property Property Edit with form History Facebook icon Twitter icon » Property:DIA/Topic/Economic Jump to: navigation, search Property Name DIA/Topics/Economic Property Type String Description Sub-property for DIA/Topic Development Impacts Assessment Toolkit property to help filter pages Used in Form/Template Tool Allows Values General;Gross Domestic Product;Energy Security;Sectoral Employment;Sectoral Outputs Pages using the property "DIA/Topic/Economic" Showing 25 pages using this property. (previous 25) (next 25) A Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE) Model + General +, Gross Domestic Product +, Sectoral Outputs +, ... Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) + General +, Gross Domestic Product + C CDM Sustainable Development Tool + General +

437

An algorithm for combined heat and power economic dispatch  

SciTech Connect

This paper presents a new algorithm for Combined Heat and Power (CHP) economic dispatch. The CHP economic dispatch problem is decomposed into two subproblems: the heat dispatch and the power dispatch. The subproblems are connected through the heat-power feasible region constraints of co-generation units. The connection can be interpreted by the unit heat-power feasible region constraint multipliers in the Lagrangian function, and the interpretation naturally leads to the development of a two-layer algorithm. The outer layer uses the Lagrangian Relaxation technique to solve the power dispatch iteratively. In each iteration, the inner layer solves the heat dispatch with the unit heat capacities passed by the outer layer. The binding constraints of the heat dispatch are fed back to the outer layer to move the CHP economic dispatch towards a global optimal solution.

Guo, T.; Henwood, M.I. [Henwood Energy Services, Inc., Sacramento, CA (United States)] [Henwood Energy Services, Inc., Sacramento, CA (United States); Ooijen, M. van [Eindhoven Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [Eindhoven Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)

1996-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

438

The China-in-Global Energy Model Tianyu Qi, Niven Winchester, Da Zhang,  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

toward a global response to climate change. To this end, the Program brings together an interdisciplinary: Massachusetts Institute of Technology 77 Massachusetts Avenue, E19-411 Cambridge, MA 02139 (USA) Location-intensive sectors ­ to analyze global energy demand, CO2 emissions, and economic activity. The C-GEM model supplies

439

Uncertainty Budget Analysis for Dimensional Inspection Processes (U)  

SciTech Connect

This paper is intended to provide guidance and describe how to prepare an uncertainty analysis of a dimensional inspection process through the utilization of an uncertainty budget analysis. The uncertainty analysis is stated in the same methodology as that of the ISO GUM standard for calibration and testing. There is a specific distinction between how Type A and Type B uncertainty analysis is used in a general and specific process. All theory and applications are utilized to represent both a generalized approach to estimating measurement uncertainty and how to report and present these estimations for dimensional measurements in a dimensional inspection process. The analysis of this uncertainty budget shows that a well-controlled dimensional inspection process produces a conservative process uncertainty, which can be attributed to the necessary assumptions in place for best possible results.

Valdez, Lucas M. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2012-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

440

Powering | GE Global Research  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Trials GE Global Research is advancing technology that will make the inspection of wind turbines faster and more reliable for customers.... Read More Brilliant(tm) Wind...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Subsidizing Global Solar Power.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

?? With national cuts on solar PV subsidies and the current oversupply of panels, the global solar market is clearly threatened by a contraction. Yet, (more)

Arnesson, Daniel

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Economic Recovery Loan Program (Maine)  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

The Economic Recovery Loan Program provides subordinate financing to help businesses remain viable and improve productivity. Eligibility criteria are based on ability to repay, and the loan is...

443

Technology-Based Economic Development  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Technology-Based Economic Development Idaho National Laboratory (INL), on behalf of corporate funds provided by Battelle Energy Alliance, funds philanthropic projects aimed at...

444

Economic Development Project Districts (Indiana)  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

Redevelopment commissions may petition legislative bodies to designate economic development project districts in cities with populations between 80,500 and 500,000. Such districts may be...

445

Cogeneration Economics for Process Plants  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper presents the incentives for cogeneration, describing pertinent legislation and qualification requirements for cogeneration benefits, and indicates the performance and economic characteristics of combined cycle cogeneration applications...

Ahner, D. J.

446

Boiler Stack Economizer Tube Failure  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A metallurgical evaluation was performed to investigate the failure of a type 304 stainless steel tube from a boiler stack economizer. The tube had three distinct degradation mechanisms...

Ryan J. Haase; Larry D. Hanke

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

447

Uncertainty assessment for accelerator-driven systems.  

SciTech Connect

The concept of a subcritical system driven by an external source of neutrons provided by an accelerator ADS (Accelerator Driver System) has been recently revived and is becoming more popular in the world technical community with active programs in Europe, Russia, Japan, and the U.S. A general consensus has been reached in adopting for the subcritical component a fast spectrum liquid metal cooled configuration. Both a lead-bismuth eutectic, sodium and gas are being considered as a coolant; each has advantages and disadvantages. The major expected advantage is that subcriticality avoids reactivity induced transients. The potentially large subcriticality margin also should allow for the introduction of very significant quantities of waste products (minor Actinides and Fission Products) which negatively impact the safety characteristics of standard cores. In the U.S. these arguments are the basis for the development of the Accelerator Transmutation of Waste (ATW), which has significant potential in reducing nuclear waste levels. Up to now, neutronic calculations have not attached uncertainties on the values of the main nuclear integral parameters that characterize the system. Many of these parameters (e.g., degree of subcriticality) are crucial to demonstrate the validity and feasibility of this concept. In this paper we will consider uncertainties related to nuclear data only. The present knowledge of the cross sections of many isotopes that are not usually utilized in existing reactors (like Bi, Pb-207, Pb-208, and also Minor Actinides and Fission Products) suggests that uncertainties in the integral parameters will be significantly larger than for conventional reactor systems, and this raises concerns on the neutronic performance of those systems.

Finck, P. J.; Gomes, I.; Micklich, B.; Palmiotti, G.

1999-06-10T23:59:59.000Z

448

Online Sensor Calibration Monitoring Uncertainty Estimation  

SciTech Connect

Empirical modeling techniques have been applied to online process monitoring to detect equipment and instrumentation degradations. However, few applications provide prediction uncertainty estimates, which can provide a measure of confidence in decisions. This paper presents the development of analytical prediction interval estimation methods for three common nonlinear empirical modeling strategies: artificial neural networks, neural network partial least squares, and local polynomial regression. The techniques are applied to nuclear power plant operational data for sensor calibration monitoring, and the prediction intervals are verified via bootstrap simulation studies.

Hines, J. Wesley; Rasmussen, Brandon [University of Tennessee (United States)

2005-09-15T23:59:59.000Z

449

Gravitational tests of the Generalized Uncertainty Principle  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We compute the corrections to the Schwarzschild metric necessary to reproduce the Hawking temperature derived from a Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP), so that the GUP deformation parameter is directly linked to the deformation of the metric. Using this modified Schwarzschild metric, we compute corrections to the standard General Relativistic predictions for the light deflection and perihelion precession, both for planets in the solar system and for binary pulsars. This analysis allows us to set bounds for the GUP deformation parameter from well-known astronomical measurements.

Scardigli, Fabio

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

450

Gravitational tests of the Generalized Uncertainty Principle  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We compute the corrections to the Schwarzschild metric necessary to reproduce the Hawking temperature derived from a Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP), so that the GUP deformation parameter is directly linked to the deformation of the metric. Using this modified Schwarzschild metric, we compute corrections to the standard General Relativistic predictions for the light deflection and perihelion precession, both for planets in the solar system and for binary pulsars. This analysis allows us to set bounds for the GUP deformation parameter from well-known astronomical measurements.

Fabio Scardigli; Roberto Casadio

2014-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

EPR Steering Inequalities from Entropic Uncertainty Relations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We use entropic uncertainty relations to formulate inequalities that witness Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) steering correlations in diverse quantum systems. We then use these inequalities to formulate symmetric EPR-steering inequalities using the mutual information. We explore the differing natures of the correlations captured by one-way and symmetric steering inequalities, and examine the possibility of exclusive one-way steerability in two-qubit states. Furthermore, we show that steering inequalities can be extended to generalized positive operator valued measures (POVMs), and we also derive hybrid-steering inequalities between alternate degrees of freedom.

James Schneeloch; Curtis J. Broadbent; Stephen P. Walborn; Eric G. Cavalcanti; John C. Howell

2013-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

452

The option to abandon: Stimulating innovative groundwater remediation technologies characterized by technological uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Many studies on technology adoption demonstrate that uncertainty leads to a postponement of investments by integrating a wait option in the economic analysis. The aim of this study however is to demonstrate how the investment in new technologies can be stimulated by integrating an option to abandon. Furthermore, this real option analysis not only considers the ex ante decision analysis of the investment in a new technology under uncertainty, but also allows for an ex post evaluation of the investment. Based on a case study regarding the adoption of an innovative groundwater remediation strategy, it is demonstrated that when the option to abandon the innovative technology is taken into account, the decision maker decides to invest in this technology, while at the same time it determines an optimal timing to abandon the technology if its operation proves to be inefficient. To reduce uncertainty about the effectiveness of groundwater remediation technologies, samples are taken. Our analysis shows that when the initial belief in an effective innovative technology is low, it is important that these samples provide correct information in order to justify the adoption of the innovative technology.

T. Compernolle; S. Van Passel; K. Huisman; P. Kort

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

453

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Economics College of Business and Economics University of Canterbury Private Bag 4800, Christchurch New is substitutable with both capital and labour. Coal is significantly substitutable with electricity and complementary with diesel while gasoline and electricity are substitutable with diesel. China's energy intensity

Hickman, Mark

454

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Zealand Electricity Market Lewis Evans and Graeme Guthrie WORKING PAPER No. 10/2011 Department of Economics and Finance College of Business and Economics University of Canterbury Private Bag 4800 to the New Zealand Electricity Market Lewis Evans New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition

Hickman, Mark

455

Improved treatment of uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: Combining the strengths of global optimization and data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

optimization and data assimilation Jasper A. Vrugt,1 Cees G. H. Diks,2 Hoshin V. Gupta,3 Willem Bouten,1

Vrugt, Jasper A.

456

Crop water stress under climate change uncertainty : global policy and regional risk  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Fourty percent of all crops grown in the world today are grown using irrigation, and shifting precipitation patterns due to climate change are viewed as a major threat to food security. This thesis examines, in the framework ...

Gueneau, Arthur

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

457

Job and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model: A User-Friendly Tool to Calculate Economic Impacts from Wind Projects; Preprint  

Wind Powering America (EERE)

Job and Economic Job and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model: A User-Friendly Tool to Calculate Economic Impacts from Wind Projects Preprint March 2004 * NREL/CP-500-35953 M. Goldberg MRG & Associates K. Sinclair and M. Milligan (Consultant) National Renewable Energy Laboratory To be presented at the 2004 Global WINDPOWER Conference Chicago, Illinois March 29-31, 2004 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 NREL is a U.S. Department of Energy Laboratory Operated by Midwest Research Institute * Battelle Contract No. DE-AC36-99-GO10337 NOTICE The submitted manuscript has been offered by an employee of the Midwest Research Institute (MRI), a contractor of the US Government under Contract No. DE-AC36-99GO10337. Accordingly, the US

458

ALS Global Agroecosystems -Draft 1 Global Agroecosystems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

following class or by appointment PREREQUISITES Introduction to Soils (SWS 3022), Soils for Environmental. This course will emphasize greater understanding of this triple bottom line in agricultural production and timely global issue in agroecology and effectively communicate in video format. CLASS FORMAT Three 50

Ma, Lena

459

IPA Phase 2 sensitivity and uncertainty analysis  

SciTech Connect

The NRC`s Phase 2 Iterative Performance Assessment (IPA) used Monte Carlo techniques to propagate uncertainty for up to 297 independent variables and nine scenarios through computer models representing the performance of the Yucca Mountain repository. The NRC staff explored the use of a number of parametric and non-parametric tests and graphical methods to display the probabilistic results. Parametric tests included regression and differential analysis. Non-parametric tests included the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Sign test. Graphical methods included the Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function (CCDF), hair diagram, scatter plots, histograms and box plots. Multiple linear regression of raw, ranked, standardized and other transformed variables determined the gross sensitivity over the parameter space. CCDF`s were also generated from subsets of the 400 vector sets formed by screening the vectors according to values of derived variables related to the behavior of the engineered and natural systems. While no single statistical or graphical technique proved to be useful in all cases, diverse methods of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis identified the same important input parameters.

Colten-Bradley, V.; Codell, R.; Byrne, M.R. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

1994-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

460

Uncertainty Analysis Technique for OMEGA Dante Measurements  

SciTech Connect

The Dante is an 18 channel X-ray filtered diode array which records the spectrally and temporally resolved radiation flux from various targets (e.g. hohlraums, etc.) at X-ray energies between 50 eV to 10 keV. It is a main diagnostics installed on the OMEGA laser facility at the Laboratory for Laser Energetics, University of Rochester. The absolute flux is determined from the photometric calibration of the X-ray diodes, filters and mirrors and an unfold algorithm. Understanding the errors on this absolute measurement is critical for understanding hohlraum energetic physics. We present a new method for quantifying the uncertainties on the determined flux using a Monte-Carlo parameter variation technique. This technique combines the uncertainties in both the unfold algorithm and the error from the absolute calibration of each channel into a one sigma Gaussian error function. One thousand test voltage sets are created using these error functions and processed by the unfold algorithm to produce individual spectra and fluxes. Statistical methods are applied to the resultant set of fluxes to estimate error bars on the measurements.

May, M J; Widmann, K; Sorce, C; Park, H; Schneider, M

2010-05-07T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Global Development Our Responsibility  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of expertise cover urgent global issues such as food production, energy supply, climate change, biodiversity e ort to address urgent global issues particularly a ecting developing countries e.g. climate change of Communication, 2012 · Project Leader: Karin Nilsson · Graphic Design: Viktor Wrange & Michael Kvick Cover Photo

462

Nuclear energy density functionals: what we can learn about/from their global performance?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A short review of recent results on the global performance of covariant energy density functionals is presented. It is focused on the analysis of the accuracy of the description of physical observables of ground and excited states as well as to related theoretical uncertainties. In addition, a global analysis of pairing properties is presented and the impact of pairing on the position of two-neutron drip line is discussed.

Afanasjev, A V; Ray, D; Ring, P

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

Economics of Residential Gas Furnaces and Water Heaters in United States  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Economics of Residential Gas Furnaces and Water Heaters in United States Economics of Residential Gas Furnaces and Water Heaters in United States New Construction Market Speaker(s): Alex Lekov Gabrielle Wong-Parodi James McMahon Victor Franco Date: May 8, 2009 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 In the new single-family home construction market, the choice of what gas furnace and gas water heater combination to install is primarily driven by first cost considerations. In this study, the authors use a life-cycle cost analysis approach that accounts for uncertainty and variability of inputs to assess the economic benefits of installing different gas furnace and water heater combinations. Among other factors, it assesses the economic feasibility of eliminating the traditional metal vents and replacing them with vents made of plastic materials used in condensing and power vent

464

From Interval Methods of Representing Uncertainty To A General Description of Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

hunguyen@nmsu.edu Abstract Measurements do not result in an exact value of the measured quantity; even of the measured quantity. Traditionally, in science and engineering, this uncertainty is character­ ized measurements. Some of this knowl­ edge comes not from measurements but from the ex­ pertise of scientists

Kreinovich, Vladik

465

Space, Health and Population Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Space, Health SHaPE and Population Economics Changing Demographics and Immigration: Implications for IndianaImplications for Indiana Brigitte Waldorf, Purdue University Farm Policy Study Group b 20 07 December 2010 #12;Space, Health SHaPE and Population Economics America is ... ... Aging #12;Space, Health

466

Philosophy & Economics "Made in Germany"  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Philosophy & Economics "Made in Germany" 10 Argumente für das Bachelor-Studiengang Philosophy & Economics 2011 www.pe.uni-bayreuth.de #12;1. P&E verbindet Philosophie und ?konomie, um Exper- tinnen und Zentrum steht die Verzahnung von philosophi- scher und ökonomischer Perspektive. 8. P&E bereitet für

Müller, Cord

467

CCPExecutiveSummary An Economic  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CCPExecutiveSummary September 2008 An Economic Assessment of EC Merger Control W: www.ccp.uea.ac.uk T: +44 (0)1603 593715 A: UEA, Norwich, NR4 7TJ An Economic Assessment of EC Merger Control: 1958 dampen the competitive process, by reducing the number of effective competitors, softening competition

Feigon, Brooke

468

An Economic analogy to Electrodynamics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this note, we would like to find the laws of electrodynamics in simple economic systems. In this direction, we identify the chief economic variables and parameters, scalar and vector, which are amenable to be put directly into the crouch of the laws of electrodynamics, namely Maxwell's equations. Moreover, we obtain Phillp's curve, recession and Black-Scholes formula, as sample applications.

Sanjay Dasari; Anindya Kumar Biswas

2010-01-12T23:59:59.000Z

469

IEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

IEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board Kenneth L. Casavant, Chair Roger Mann, Vice-Chair Joel R Independent Economic Analysis Board January 2004 Document IEAB 2004-01 #12;IEAB Juvenile Passage Cost in the Columbia River Basin. CEA principles are reviewed and related analyses and policy issues are discussed

470

Global Warming and Caspian Sea Level Fluctuations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Coastal regions have a high social, economical and environmental importance. Due to this importance the sea level fluctuations can have many bad consequences. In this research the correlation between the increasing trend of temperature in coastal stations due to Global Warming and the Caspian Sea level has been established. The Caspian Sea level data has been received from the Jason-1 satellite. It was resulted that the monthly correlation between the temperature and sea level is high and also positive and almost the same for all the stations. But the yearly correlation was negative. It means that the sea level has decreased by the increase in temperature.

Ardakanian, Reza

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

471

Global Water Sustainability:  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...Gleick 2006). However, desalination currently supplies 0...innovations, such as desalination. The key is to optimise...Thermal and membrane process economics: Optimized selection for seawater desalination. Desalination 153: 305-311...

Eric H. Oelkers; Janet G. Hering; Chen Zhu

472

Economic Perceptions and Economic Voting in Post Communist Countries of East Central Europe  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Voting Patterns during the Economic Transition in Poland,Timothy Nordstrom. 2003. Economic Performance and SurvivalCohen, J.E. 2004. Economic Perceptions and Executive

Tverdova, Yuliya V.

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

473

Economic Impact of the California Cancer Research Act Job Creation and Economic Activity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE CALIFORNIA CANCERACT Job creation and economic activity Stanton A. Glantz,RESEARCH AND EDUCATION Economic Impact of the California

Glantz, Stanton A.

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

474

Economic Development | ornl.gov  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Success Stories Success Stories Commercialization and Licensing Economic Development Industrial Partnerships Sponsored Research Partnerships Home | Connect with ORNL | For Industry | Partnerships | Success Stories | Economic Development Success Stories Economic Development 1-3 of 3 Results ORNL and Enterprise Center Help Revitalize Chattanooga September 02, 2011 - The Enterprise Center, through its technology-based economic development initiatives, is focused on economic transformation in Chattanooga, Hamilton County, and the Tennessee Valley Corridor region. Seven Companies Selected for ORNL Mentor Protégé Program November 28, 2012 - Seven companies have been selected to participate in the mentor protégé program sponsored by ORNL. The program is a DOE initiative designed to assist energy-related companies in an effort to

475

Analysis of uncertainties in CRAC2 calculations: the inhalation pathway  

SciTech Connect

CRAC2 is a computer code for estimating the health effects and economic costs that might result from a release of radioactivity from a nuclear reactor to the environment. This paper describes tests of sensitivity of the predicted health effects to uncertainties in parameters associated with inhalation of the released radionuclides. These parameters are the particle size of the carrier aerosol and, for each element in the release, the clearance parameters for the lung model on which the code's dose conversion factors for inhalation are based. CRAC2 uses hourly meteorological data and a straight-line Gaussian plume model to predict the transport of airborne radioactivity; it includes models for plume depletion and population evacuation, and data for the distributions of population and land use. The code can compute results for single weather sequences, or it can perform random sampling of weather sequences from the meteorological data file and compute results for each weather sequence in the sample. For the work described in this paper, we concentrated on three fixed weather sequences that represent a range of conditions. For each fixed weather sequence, we applied random sampling to joint distributions of the inhalation parameters in order to estimate the sensitivity of the predicted health effects. All sampling runs produced coefficients of variation that were less than 50%, but some differences of means between weather sequences were substantial, as were some differences between means and the corresponding CRAC2 results without random sampling. Early injuries showed differences of as much as 1 to 2 orders of magnitude, while the differences in early fatalities were less than a factor of 2. Latent cancer fatalities varied by less than 10%. 19 references, 6 figures, 3 tables.

Killough, G.G.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.

1984-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

476

Combining sustainable development and economic attractiveness: towards an indicator of sustainable attractiveness  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This article addresses the question of the attractiveness of a particular territory from the perspective of sustainable development. Attractiveness cannot be measured without an assessment of sustainable development because recent global economic and ecological crises mean territories still want to attract businesses, but governments are also responsible for responding to concerns about the well-being of citizens and the environment. Thus, in comparing measures of economic attractiveness and sustainable development, this study proposes an indicator of sustainable attractiveness.

Anne Musson

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

477

Uncertainty in Resilience to Climate Change in India and Indian States  

SciTech Connect

This study builds on an earlier analysis of resilience of India and Indian states to climate change. The previous study (Brenkert and Malone 2005) assessed current resilience; this research uses the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) to project resilience to 2095 and to perform an uncertainty analysis on the deterministic results. Projections utilized two SRES-based scenarios, one with fast-and-high growth, one with delayed growth. A detailed comparison of two states, the Punjab and Orissa, points to the kinds of insights that can be obtained using the VRIM. The scenarios differ most significantly in the timing of the uncertainty in economic prosperity (represented by GDP per capita) as a major factor in explaining the uncertainty in the resilience index. In the fast-and-high growth scenario the states differ most markedly regarding the role of ecosystem sensitivity, land use and water availability. The uncertainty analysis shows, for example, that resilience in the Punjab might be enhanced, especially in the delayed growth scenario, if early attention is paid to the impact of ecosystems sensitivity on environmental well-being of the state. By the same token, later in the century land-use pressures might be avoided if land is managed through intensification rather than extensification of agricultural land. Thus, this methodology illustrates how a policy maker can be informed about where to focus attention on specific issues, by understanding the potential changes at a specific location and time and, thus, what might yield desired outcomes. Model results can point to further analyses of the potential for resilience-building.

Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

2008-10-03T23:59:59.000Z

478

Comparison Of Hybrid Methods For Global Variance Reduction In Shielding Calculations  

SciTech Connect

For Monte Carlo shielding problems that calculate a mesh tally over the entire problem, the relative uncertainties computed for each voxel can vary widely. This can lead to unacceptably long run times in order to reduce the uncertainties in all areas of the problem to a reasonably low level. Hybrid methods using estimates from deterministic calculations to create importance maps for variance reduction in Monte Carlo calculations have been successfully used to optimize the calculation of specific tallies. For the global problem, several methods have been proposed that create importance maps that distribute Monte Carlo particles in such a way as to achieve a more uniform distribution of relative uncertainty across the problem. The goal is to compute a mesh tally with nearly the same relative uncertainties in the low flux/dose areas as in the high flux/dose areas. Methods based on only forward deterministic estimates and methods using both forward and adjoint deterministic methods have been implemented the SCALE/MAVRIC package and have been compared against each other by computing global mesh tallies on several representative shielding problems. Methods using both forward and adjoint estimates provide better performance for computing more uniform relative uncertainties across a global mesh tally.

Peplow, Douglas E. [ORNL

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

479

Propagation of Isotopic Bias and Uncertainty to Criticality Safety Analyses of PWR Waste Packages  

SciTech Connect

Burnup credit methodology is economically advantageous because significantly higher loading capacity may be achieved for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) casks based on this methodology as compared to the loading capacity based on a fresh fuel assumption. However, the criticality safety analysis for establishing the loading curve based on burnup credit becomes increasingly complex as more parameters accounting for spent fuel isotopic compositions are introduced to the safety analysis. The safety analysis requires validation of both depletion and criticality calculation methods. Validation of a neutronic-depletion code consists of quantifying the bias and the uncertainty associated with the bias in predicted SNF compositions caused by cross-section data uncertainty and by approximations in the calculational method. The validation is based on comparison between radiochemical assay (RCA) data and calculated isotopic concentrations for fuel samples representative of SNF inventory. The criticality analysis methodology for commercial SNF disposal allows burnup credit for 14 actinides and 15 fission product isotopes in SNF compositions. The neutronic-depletion method for disposal criticality analysis employing burnup credit is the two-dimensional (2-D) depletion sequence TRITON (Transport Rigor Implemented with Time-dependent Operation for Neutronic depletion)/NEWT (New ESC-based Weighting Transport code) and the 44GROUPNDF5 crosssection library in the Standardized Computer Analysis for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE 5.1) code system. The SCALE 44GROUPNDF5 cross section library is based on the Evaluated Nuclear Data File/B Version V (ENDF/B-V) library. The criticality calculation code for disposal criticality analysis employing burnup credit is General Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) Transport Code. The purpose of this calculation report is to determine the bias on the calculated effective neutron multiplication factor, k{sub eff}, due to the bias and bias uncertainty associated with predicted spent fuel compositions (i.e., determine the penalty in reactivity due to isotopic composition bias and uncertainty) for use in disposal criticality analysis employing burnup credit. The method used in this calculation to propagate the isotopic bias and bias-uncertainty values to k{sub eff} is the Monte Carlo uncertainty sampling method. The development of this report is consistent with 'Test Plan for: Isotopic Validation for Postclosure Criticality of Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel'. This calculation report has been developed in support of burnup credit activities for the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and provides a methodology that can be applied to other criticality safety applications employing burnup credit.

Radulescu, Georgeta [ORNL

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

480

Survey and Evaluate Uncertainty Quantification Methodologies  

SciTech Connect

The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a partnership among national laboratories, industry and academic institutions that will develop and deploy state-of-the-art computational modeling and simulation tools to accelerate the commercialization of carbon capture technologies from discovery to development, demonstration, and ultimately the widespread deployment to hundreds of power plants. The CCSI Toolset will provide end users in industry with a comprehensive, integrated suite of scientifically validated models with uncertainty quantification, optimization, risk analysis and decision making capabilities. The CCSI Toolset will incorporate commercial and open-source software currently in use by industry and will also develop new software tools as necessary to fill technology gaps identified during execution of the project. The CCSI Toolset will (1) enable promising concepts to be more quickly identified through rapid computational screening of devices and processes; (2) reduce the time to design and troubleshoot new devices and processes; (3) quantify the technical risk in taking technology from laboratory-scale to commercial-scale; and (4) stabilize deployment costs more quickly by replacing some of the physical operational tests with virtual power plant simulations. The goal of CCSI is to deliver a toolset that can simulate the scale-up of a broad set of new carbon capture technologies from laboratory scale to full commercial scale. To provide a framework around which the toolset can be developed and demonstrated, we will focus on three Industrial Challenge Problems (ICPs) related to carbon capture technologies relevant to U.S. pulverized coal (PC) power plants. Post combustion capture by solid sorbents is the technology focus of the initial ICP (referred to as ICP A). The goal of the uncertainty quantification (UQ) task (Task 6) is to provide a set of capabilities to the user community for the quantification of uncertainties associated with the carbon capture processes. As such, we will develop, as needed and beyond existing capabilities, a suite of robust and efficient computational tools for UQ to be integrated into a CCSI UQ software framework.

Lin, Guang; Engel, David W.; Eslinger, Paul W.

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global economic uncertainties" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

ECONOMICS UPDATE Issue 1 Autumn 2014  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

ECONOMICS UPDATE Issue 1 Economics Update Autumn 2014 UNIVERSITY OF ABERDEEN � DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS IN THIS ISSUE Welcome to the first Economics update! In this twice-yearly publication, we. In the Research Assessment Exercise results of 2008, 100% of Economics research, was judged to be of international

Levi, Ran

482

Jet energy scale uncertainty correlations between ATLAS and CMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The correlation of the jet energy scale uncertainties between the ATLAS and CMS experiments are presented in this note. The uncertainty components for both experiments are grouped in categories. For each of these categories, the detailed comparison of the procedures to determine the jet calibration and its uncertainties allows to estimate a range for the correlation coefficient between the two experiments, ranging from 0 (uncorrelated) to 100\\% (fully correlated). This information can be used for the combination of ATLAS and CMS precision measurements.

The ATLAS collaboration

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

483

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

October 2010 October 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 October 13, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI oil prices averaged $75 per barrel in September but rose above $80 at the end of the month and into early October. EIA has raised the average fourth- quarter 2010 forecasted WTI spot price to $79 per barrel compared with $77 per barrel in last monthʹs Outlook. WTI spot prices are projected to rise to $85 per barrel by the fourth quarter of next year. As has been the case for most of 2010, WTI futures traded with a notable lack of volatility during the third quarter of 2010 (Figure 1). However, prices did bounce in

484

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

March 2010 March 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 March 9, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $76.39 per barrel in February 2010, almost $2 per barrel lower than the prior month's average and very near the $76 per barrel forecast in last month's Outlook. Last month, the WTI spot price reached a low of $71.15 on February 5 and peaked at $80.04 on February 22. EIA expects WTI prices to average above $80 per barrel this spring, rising to an average of about $82 per barrel by the end of the year and to $85 per barrel by the end of 2011 (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart).

485

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

November 2010 November 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 November 9, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged almost $82 per barrel in October, about $7 per barrel higher than the September average, as expectations of higher oil demand pushed up prices. EIA has raised the average fourth quarter 2010 WTI spot price forecast to about $83 per barrel compared with $79 per barrel in last monthʹs Outlook. WTI spot prices rise to $87 per barrel by the fourth quarter of next year. Projected WTI prices average $79 per barrel in 2010 and $85 per barrel in 2011. WTI futures for January 2011 delivery (for the 5-day period ending November 4)

486

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

May 2010 May 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 May 11, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $84 per barrel in April 2010, about $3 per barrel above the prior month's average and $2 per barrel higher than forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $84 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $87 by the end of next year, an increase of about $2 per barrel from the previous Outlook (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart). Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, as history has shown. Prices for near-term futures options contracts suggest that the market attaches

487

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 December 7, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged over $84 per barrel in November, more than $2 per barrel higher than the October average. EIA has raised the average winter 2010-2011 period WTI spot price forecast by $1 per barrel from the last monthʹs Outlook to $84 per barrel. WTI spot prices rise to $89 per barrel by the end of next year, $2 per barrel higher than in the last Outlook. Projected WTI prices average $79 per barrel in 2010 and $86 per barrel in 2011. WTI futures for February 2011 delivery during the 5-day period ending December 2

488

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement .docx  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 1 January 2011 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 January 11, 2011 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged over $89 per barrel in December, about $5 per barrel higher than the November average. Expectations of higher oil demand, combined with unusually cold weather in both Europe and the U.S. Northeast, contributed to prices. EIA has raised the first quarter 2011 WTI spot price forecast by $8 per barrel from last monthʹs Outlook to $92 per barrel with a continuing rise to an average $99 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2012. The projected annual average WTI price is $93 per barrel in 2011 and $98 per barrel in

489

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 June 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 June 8, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged less than $74 per barrel in May 2010, almost $11 per barrel below the prior month's average and $7 per barrel lower than forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $79 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $84 by the end of next year, a decrease of about $3 per barrel from the previous Outlook (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart). Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, as history has shown. Prices for near-term futures options contracts suggest that the market attaches

490

Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This essay, written by a statistician and a climate scientist, describes our view of the gap that exists between current practice in mainstream climate science, and the practical needs of policymakers charged with exploring possible interventions in the context of climate change. By `mainstream' we mean the type of climate science that dominates in universities and research centres, which we will term `academic' climate science, in contrast to `policy' climate science; aspects of this distinction will become clearer in what follows. In a nutshell, we do not think that academic climate science equips climate scientists to be as helpful as they might be, when involved in climate policy assessment. Partly, we attribute this to an over-investment in high resolution climate simulators, and partly to a culture that is uncomfortable with the inherently subjective nature of climate uncertainty.

Rougier, Jonathan

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

491

Diffusion of irreversible energy technologies under uncertainty  

SciTech Connect

This paper presents a model of technology diffusion is consistent with characteristics of participants in most energy markets. Whereas the models used most widely for empirical research are based on the assumption that the extended delays in adoption of cost-saving innovations are the result of either lack of knowledge about the new processes or heterogeneity across potential adopters, the model presented in this paper is based on the strategic behavior by firms. The strategic interdependence of the firms` decisions is rooted in spillover effects associated with an inability to exclude others from the learning-by-doing acquired when a firm implements a new technology. The model makes extensive use of recent developments in investment theory as it relates irreversible investments under uncertainty.

Cacallo, J.D.; Sutherland, R.J.

1993-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

492

Intrinsic Uncertainties in Modeling Complex Systems.  

SciTech Connect

Models are built to understand and predict the behaviors of both natural and artificial systems. Because it is always necessary to abstract away aspects of any non-trivial system being modeled, we know models can potentially leave out important, even critical elements. This reality of the modeling enterprise forces us to consider the prospective impacts of those effects completely left out of a model - either intentionally or unconsidered. Insensitivity to new structure is an indication of diminishing returns. In this work, we represent a hypothetical unknown effect on a validated model as a finite perturba- tion whose amplitude is constrained within a control region. We find robustly that without further constraints, no meaningful bounds can be placed on the amplitude of a perturbation outside of the control region. Thus, forecasting into unsampled regions is a very risky proposition. We also present inherent difficulties with proper time discretization of models and representing in- herently discrete quantities. We point out potentially worrisome uncertainties, arising from math- ematical formulation alone, which modelers can inadvertently introduce into models of complex systems. Acknowledgements This work has been funded under early-career LDRD project %23170979, entitled %22Quantify- ing Confidence in Complex Systems Models Having Structural Uncertainties%22, which ran from 04/2013 to 09/2014. We wish to express our gratitude to the many researchers at Sandia who con- tributed ideas to this work, as well as feedback on the manuscript. In particular, we would like to mention George Barr, Alexander Outkin, Walt Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, and Laura Swiler for provid- ing invaluable advice and guidance through the course of the project. We would also like to thank Steven Kleban, Amanda Gonzales, Trevor Manzanares, and Sarah Burwell for their assistance in managing project tasks and resources.

Cooper, Curtis S; Bramson, Aaron L.; Ames, Arlo L.

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

Impact of emissions, chemistry, and climate on atmospheric carbon monoxide : 100-year predictions from a global chemistry-climate model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The possible trends for atmospheric carbon monoxide in the next 100 yr have been illustrated using a coupled atmospheric chemistry and climate model driven by emissions predicted by a global economic development model. ...

Wang, Chien.; Prinn, Ronald G.

494

A surrogate-based uncertainty quantification with quantifiable errors  

SciTech Connect

Surrogate models are often employed to reduce the computational cost required to complete uncertainty quantification, where one is interested in propagating input parameters uncertainties throughout a complex engineering model to estimate responses uncertainties. An improved surrogate construction approach is introduced here which places a premium on reducing the associated computational cost. Unlike existing methods where the surrogate is constructed first, then employed to propagate uncertainties, the new approach combines both sensitivity and uncertainty information to render further reduction in the computational cost. Mathematically, the reduction is described by a range finding algorithm that identifies a subspace in the parameters space, whereby parameters uncertainties orthogonal to the subspace contribute negligible amount to the propagated uncertainties. Moreover, the error resulting from the reduction can be upper-bounded. The new approach is demonstrated using a realistic nuclear assembly model and compared to existing methods in terms of computational cost and accuracy of uncertainties. Although we believe the algorithm is general, it will be applied here for linear-based surrogates and Gaussian parameters uncertainties. The generalization to nonlinear models will be detailed in a separate article. (authors)

Bang, Y.; Abdel-Khalik, H. S. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

Uncertainty relation for non-Hamiltonian quantum systems  

SciTech Connect

General forms of uncertainty relations for quantum observables of non-Hamiltonian quantum systems are considered. Special cases of uncertainty relations are discussed. The uncertainty relations for non-Hamiltonian quantum systems are considered in the Schroedinger-Robertson form since it allows us to take into account Lie-Jordan algebra of quantum observables. In uncertainty relations, the time dependence of quantum observables and the properties of this dependence are discussed. We take into account that a time evolution of observables of a non-Hamiltonian quantum system is not an endomorphism with respect to Lie, Jordan, and associative multiplications.

Tarasov, Vasily E. [Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation)] [Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation)

2013-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

496

Neutron reactions and climate uncertainties earn Los Alamos scientists...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

DOE Early Career awards Neutron reactions and climate uncertainties earn Los Alamos scientists DOE Early Career awards Marian Jandel and Nathan Urban are among the 61 national...

497

The importance of covariance in nuclear data uncertainty propagation studies  

SciTech Connect

A study has been undertaken to investigate what proportion of the uncertainty propagated through plutonium critical assembly calculations is due to the covariances between the fission cross section in different neutron energy groups. The uncertainties on k{sub eff} calculated show that the presence of covariances between the cross section in different neutron energy groups accounts for approximately 27-37% of the propagated uncertainty due to the plutonium fission cross section. This study also confirmed the validity of employing the sandwich equation, with associated sensitivity and covariance data, instead of a Monte Carlo sampling approach to calculating uncertainties for linearly varying systems. (authors)

Benstead, J. [AWE Plc, Aldermaston, Berkshire (United Kingdom)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

498

Uncertainties of coherent states for a generalized supersymmetric annihilation operator  

SciTech Connect

This study presents supersymmetric coherent states that are eigenstates of a general four-parameter family of annihilation operators. The elements of this family are defined as operators in Fock space that transform a subspace of a definite number of particles into a subspace with one particle removed. The emphasis is on classifying parameter space in various regions according to the uncertainty bounds of the corresponding coherent states. Specifically, the uncertainty in position-momentum is analyzed, with specific focus on characterizing regions of minimum uncertainty states, regions where the uncertainties are bounded from above, and where they grow unbound.

Kornbluth, Mordechai; Zypman, Fredy [Physics Department, Yeshiva University, 500 W 185th Street, New York, New York 10033 (United States)] [Physics Department, Yeshiva University, 500 W 185th Street, New York, New York 10033 (United States)

2013-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

499

Variable Grid Method for Visualizing Uncertainty Associated with...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

This Return to Search Variable Grid Method for Visualizing Uncertainty Associated with Spatial Data A decision-making tool for industry,government, academia, and scientists...

500

Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

S. Irreversible investment in alternative projects. Economice Dixit, AK, Pindyck, RS. Investment under uncertainty.Maribu, KM, Wangensteen, I. Optimal investment strategies in

Siddiqui, Afzal

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z