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1

``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' scientific report ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' Team  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' scientific report ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' Team) : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 6 2.2 Anthropogenic climate change studies: scenario experiments (96) : : : : : : : : : 7 2 following its creation, the ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' team had to make its proofs in order

2

``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' scientific report 1 ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' Team  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' scientific report 1 ``Climate Modelling & Global Change of the tropical climate : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 6 2.2 Short≠term variability studies : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 8 2.3 Climate drift sensitivity studies

3

Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models Berkeley Lab Researcher Says Climate Science is Entering New...

4

RICCI Sophie Global Change and Climate Modeling Team  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

RICCI Sophie Global Change and Climate Modeling Team CERFACS - Toulouse, FRANCE Technical Report TR covariance matrix#17;. This hypothesis stems from the T S water mass properties conservation over long term

5

Climate Models from the Joint Global Change Research Institute  

DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

Staff at the Joint Institute develop and use models to simulate the economic and physical impacts of global change policy options. The GCAM, for example, gives analysts insight into how regional and national economies might respond to climate change mitigation policies including carbon taxes, carbon trading, and accelerated deployment of energy technology. Three available models are Phoenix, GCAM, and EPIC. Phoenix is a global, dynamic recursive, computable general equilibrium model that is solved in five-year time steps from 2005 through 2100 and divides the world into twenty-four regions. Each region includes twenty-six industrial sectors. Particular attention is paid to energy production in Phoenix. There are nine electricity-generating technologies (coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal) and four additional energy commodities: crude oil, refined oil products, coal, and natural gas. Phoenix is designed to answer economic questions related to international climate and energy policy and international trade. Phoenix replaces the Second Generation Model (SGM) that was formerly used for general equilibrium analysis at JGCRI. GCAM is the Global Change Assessment Model, a partial equilibrium model of the world with 14 regions. GCAM operates in 5 year time steps from 1990 to 2095 and is designed to examine long-term changes in the coupled energy, agriculture/land-use, and climate system. GCAM includes a 151-region agriculture land-use module and a reduced form carbon cycle and climate module in addition to its incorporation of demographics, resources, energy production and consumption. The model has been used extensively in a number of assessment and modeling activities such as the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and IPCC assessment reports. GCAM is now freely available as a community model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) Model is a process-based agricultural systems model composed of simulation components for weather, hydrology, nutrient cycling, pesticide fate, tillage, crop growth, soil erosion, crop and soil management and economics. Staff at PNNL have been involved in the development of this model by integrating new sub-models for soil carbon dynamics and nitrogen cycling.

6

Review: Global Climate Change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

introduction to global climate change, the greenhouseReview: Global Climate Change: A Primer By Orrin H PilkeyPilkey, Keith C. Global Climate Change: a primer. Durham,

Smith, Jennifer

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

7

A Vast Machine Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Vast Machine Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming Paul N. Edwards models, climate data, and the politics of global warming / Paul N. Edwards. p. cm. Includes. Climatology--History. 3. Meteorology--History. 4. Climatology--Technological innovation. 5. Global temperature

8

Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model Dietmar on the surface energy balance by very simple repre- sentations of solar and thermal radiation, the atmospheric and cold regions to warm more than other regions. Keywords Climate dynamics √Ā Climate change √Ā Climate

Dommenget, Dietmar

9

Impact of emissions, chemistry, and climate on atmospheric carbon monoxide : 100-year predictions from a global chemistry-climate model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The possible trends for atmospheric carbon monoxide in the next 100 yr have been illustrated using a coupled atmospheric chemistry and climate model driven by emissions predicted by a global economic development model. ...

Wang, Chien.; Prinn, Ronald G.

10

Intercomparison of the Cloud Water Phase among Global Climate Models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Mixed-phase clouds (clouds that consist of both cloud droplets and ice crystals) are frequently present in the Earthís atmosphere and influence the Earthís energy budget through their radiative properties, which are highly dependent on the cloud water phase. In this study, the phase partitioning of cloud water is compared among six global climate models (GCMs) and with Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization retrievals. It is found that the GCMs predict vastly different distributions of cloud phase for a given temperature, and none of them are capable of reproducing the spatial distribution or magnitude of the observed phase partitioning. While some GCMs produced liquid water paths comparable to satellite observations, they all failed to preserve sufficient liquid water at mixed-phase cloud temperatures. Our results suggest that validating GCMs using only the vertically integrated water contents could lead to amplified differences in cloud radiative feedback. The sensitivity of the simulated cloud phase in GCMs to the choice of heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization is also investigated. The response to a change in ice nucleation is quite different for each GCM, and the implementation of the same ice nucleation parameterization in all models does not reduce the spread in simulated phase among GCMs. The results suggest that processes subsequent to ice nucleation are at least as important in determining phase and should be the focus of future studies aimed at understanding and reducing differences among the models.

Komurcu, Muge; Storelvmo, Trude; Tan, Ivy; Lohmann, U.; Yun, Yuxing; Penner, Joyce E.; Wang, Yong; Liu, Xiaohong; Takemura, T.

2014-03-27T23:59:59.000Z

11

Sandia National Laboratories: Global Climate & Energy  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

20, 2013, in Advanced Materials Laboratory, Energy Efficiency, Facilities, Global Climate & Energy, Materials Science, Modeling, Modeling & Analysis, Partnership, Research &...

12

Why are climate models reproducing the observed global surface warming so well?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Why are climate models reproducing the observed global surface warming so well? Reto Knutti1 global surface warming so well?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L18704, doi:10.1029/ 2008GL034932. 1 models reproduce the observed surface warming better than one would expect given the uncertainties

Fischlin, Andreas

13

ENERGY INVESTMENTS UNDER CLIMATE POLICY: A COMPARISON OF GLOBAL MODELS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The levels of investment needed to mobilize an energy system transformation and mitigate climate change are not known with certainty. This paper aims to inform the ongoing dialogue and in so doing to guide public policy and strategic corporate decision making. Within the framework of the LIMITS integrated assessment model comparison exercise, we analyze a multi-IAM ensemble of long-term energy and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Our study provides insight into several critical but uncertain areas related to the future investment environment, for example in terms of where capital expenditures may need to flow regionally, into which sectors they might be concentrated, and what policies could be helpful in spurring these financial resources. We find that stringent climate policies consistent with a 2įC climate change target would require a considerable upscaling of investments into low-carbon energy and energy efficiency, reaching approximately $45 trillion (range: $30Ė$75 trillion) cumulative between 2010 and 2050, or about $1.1 trillion annually. This represents an increase of some $30 trillion ($10Ė$55 trillion), or $0.8 trillion per year, beyond what investments might otherwise be in a reference scenario that assumes the continuation of present and planned emissions-reducing policies throughout the world. In other words, a substantial "clean-energy investment gap" of some $800 billion/yr exists ó notably on the same order of magnitude as present-day subsidies for fossil energy and electricity worldwide ($523 billion). Unless the gap is filled rather quickly, the 2įC target could potentially become out of reach.

McCollum, David; Nagai, Yu; Riahi, Keywan; Marangoni, Giacomo; Calvin, Katherine V.; Pietzcker, Robert; Van Vliet, Jasper; van der Zwaan, Bob

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

Global vegetation model diversity and the risks of climate-driven ecosystem shifts  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Climate change is modifying global biogeochemical cycles, and is expected to exert increasingly large effects in the future. How these changes will in turn affect and interact with the structure and function of particular ecosystems is unclear, however, both because of scientific uncertainties and the very diversity of global vegetation models in use. Writing in Environmental Research Letters, Warszawski et al. (1) aggregate results from a group of models, across a range of emissions scenarios and climate data, to investigate these risks. Although the models frequently disagree about which specific regions are at risk, they consistently predict a greater chance of ecosystem restructuring with more warming; this risk roughly doubles between 2 and 3 įC increases in global mean temperature. The innovative work of Warszawski et al. represents an important first step towards fully consistent multi-model, multi-scenario assessments of the future risks to global ecosystems.

Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

2013-11-08T23:59:59.000Z

15

Multi-century Changes to Global Climate and Carbon Cycle: Results from a Coupled Climate and Carbon Cycle Model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper, we use a coupled climate and carbon cycle model to investigate the global climate and carbon cycle changes out to year 2300 that would occur if CO{sub 2} emissions from all the currently estimated fossil fuel resources were released to the atmosphere. By year 2300, the global climate warms by about 8 K and atmospheric CO{sub 2} reaches 1423 ppmv. The warming is higher than anticipated because the sensitivity to radiative forcing increases as the simulation progresses. In our simulation, the rate of emissions peak at over 30 PgC yr{sup -1} early in the 22nd century. Even at year 2300, nearly 50% of cumulative emissions remain in the atmosphere. In our simulations both soils and living biomass are net carbon sinks throughout the simulation. Despite having relatively low climate sensitivity and strong carbon uptake by the land biosphere, our model projections suggest severe long-term consequences for global climate if all the fossil-fuel carbon is ultimately released to the atmosphere.

Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Mirin, A; Wickett, M; Delire, C

2005-02-17T23:59:59.000Z

16

Moisture Flux Convergence in Regional and Global Climate Models: Implications for Droughts in the Southwestern United States Under Climate Change  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The water cycle of the southwestern United States (SW) is dominated by winter storms that maintain a positive annual net precipitation. Analysis of the control and future climate from four pairs of regional and global climate models (RCMs and GCMs) shows that the RCMs simulate a higher fraction of transient eddy moisture fluxes because the hydrodynamic instabilities associated with flow over complex terrain are better resolved. Under global warming, this enables the RCMs to capture the response of transient eddies to increased atmospheric stability that allows more moisture to converge on the windward side of the mountains by blocking. As a result, RCMs simulate enhanced transient eddy moisture convergence in the SW compared to GCMs, although both robustly simulate drying due to enhanced moisture divergence by the divergent mean flow in a warmer climate. This enhanced convergence leads to reduced susceptibility to hydrological change in the RCMs compared to GCMs.

Gao, Yanhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Salathe, E.; Dominguez, Francina; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2012-05-10T23:59:59.000Z

17

Global climate feedbacks  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The important physical, chemical, and biological events that affect global climate change occur on a mesoscale -- requiring high spatial resolution for their analysis. The Department of Energy has formulated two major initiatives under the US Global Change Program: ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurements), and CHAMMP (Computer Hardware Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics). ARM is designed to use ground and air-craft based observations to document profiles of atmospheric composition, clouds, and radiative fluxes. With research and models of important physical processes, ARM will delineate the relationships between trace gases, aerosol and cloud structure, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, and will improve the parameterization of global circulation models. The present GCMs do not model important feedbacks, including those from clouds, oceans, and land processes. The purpose of this workshop is to identify such potential feedbacks, to evaluate the uncertainties in the feedback processes (and, if possible, to parameterize the feedback processes so that they can be treated in a GCM), and to recommend research programs that will reduce the uncertainties in important feedback processes. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases.

Manowitz, B.

1990-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

18

Leveraging The Open Provenance Model as a Multi-Tier Model for Global Climate Research  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Global climate researchers rely upon many forms of sensor data and analytical methods to help profile subtle changes in climate conditions. The U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program provides researchers with curated Value Added Products (VAPs) resulting from continuous sensor data streams, data fusion, and modeling. The ARM operations staff and software development teams (data producers) rely upon a number of techniques to ensure strict quality control (QC) and quality assurance (QA) standards are maintained. Climate researchers (data consumers) are highly interested in obtaining as much provenance (data quality, data pedigree) as possible to establish data trustworthiness. Currently all the provenance is not easily attainable or identifiable without significant efforts to extract and piece together information from configuration files, log files, codes, and status information from ARM databases. The need for a formalized approach to managing provenance became paramount with the planned addition of 120 new instruments, new data products, and data collection scaling to half a terabyte daily. Last year our research identified the need for a multi-tier provenance model to enable the data consumer easy access to the provenance for their data. This year we are leveraging the Open Provenance Model as a foundational construct that serves the needs of both the VAP producers and consumers, we are organizing the provenance in different tiers of granularity to model VAP lineage, causality at the component level within a VAP, and the causality for each time step as samples are being assembled within the VAP. This paper shares our implementation strategy and how the ARM operations staff and the climate research community can greatly benefit from this approach to more effectively assess and quantify VAP provenance.

Stephan, Eric G.; Halter, Todd D.; Ermold, Brian D.

2010-12-08T23:59:59.000Z

19

Accounting for Global Climate Model Projection Uncertainty in Modern Statistical Downscaling  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Future climate change has emerged as a national and a global security threat. To carry out the needed adaptation and mitigation steps, a quantification of the expected level of climate change is needed, both at the global and the regional scale; in the end, the impact of climate change is felt at the local/regional level. An important part of such climate change assessment is uncertainty quantification. Decision and policy makers are not only interested in 'best guesses' of expected climate change, but rather probabilistic quantification (e.g., Rougier, 2007). For example, consider the following question: What is the probability that the average summer temperature will increase by at least 4 C in region R if global CO{sub 2} emission increases by P% from current levels by time T? It is a simple question, but one that remains very difficult to answer. It is answering these kind of questions that is the focus of this effort. The uncertainty associated with future climate change can be attributed to three major factors: (1) Uncertainty about future emission of green house gasses (GHG). (2) Given a future GHG emission scenario, what is its impact on the global climate? (3) Given a particular evolution of the global climate, what does it mean for a particular location/region? In what follows, we assume a particular GHG emission scenario has been selected. Given the GHG emission scenario, the current batch of the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is used to simulate future climate under this scenario, yielding an ensemble of future climate projections (which reflect, to some degree our uncertainty of being able to simulate future climate give a particular GHG scenario). Due to the coarse-resolution nature of the GCM projections, they need to be spatially downscaled for regional impact assessments. To downscale a given GCM projection, two methods have emerged: dynamical downscaling and statistical (empirical) downscaling (SDS). Dynamic downscaling involves configuring and running a regional climate model (RCM) nested within a given GCM projection (i.e., the GCM provides bounder conditions for the RCM). On the other hand, statistical downscaling aims at establishing a statistical relationship between observed local/regional climate variables of interest and synoptic (GCM-scale) climate predictors. The resulting empirical relationship is then applied to future GCM projections. A comparison of the pros and cons of dynamical versus statistical downscaling is outside the scope of this effort, but has been extensively studied and the reader is referred to Wilby et al. (1998); Murphy (1999); Wood et al. (2004); Benestad et al. (2007); Fowler et al. (2007), and references within those. The scope of this effort is to study methodology, a statistical framework, to propagate and account for GCM uncertainty in regional statistical downscaling assessment. In particular, we will explore how to leverage an ensemble of GCM projections to quantify the impact of the GCM uncertainty in such an assessment. There are three main component to this effort: (1) gather the necessary climate-related data for a regional SDS study, including multiple GCM projections, (2) carry out SDS, and (3) assess the uncertainty. The first step is carried out using tools written in the Python programming language, while analysis tools were developed in the statistical programming language R; see Figure 1.

Johannesson, G

2010-03-17T23:59:59.000Z

20

Agriculture and Climate Change in Global Scenarios: Why Don't the Models Agree  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs makes direct use of weather inputs. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes of key variables such as prices, production, and trade. These divergent outcomes arise from differences in model inputs and model specification. The goal of this paper is to review climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By providing common productivity drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes are reduced. All models show higher prices in 2050 because of negative productivity shocks from climate change. The magnitude of the price increases, and the adaptation responses, differ significantly across the various models. Substantial differences exist in the structural parameters affecting demand, area, and yield, and should be a topic for future research.

Nelson, Gerald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Calvin, Katherine V.; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; Mueller, C.; Reilly, J. M.; Robertson, Richard; Sands, Ronald; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

The Thermodynamic Influence of Subgrid Orography in a Global Climate Model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Assessments of the impacts of climate change typically require information at scales of 10 km or less. Such a resolution will not be achieved by global climate models for many years. We have developed an alternative to explicit resolution that can meet the needs of climate change impact assessment now. We have applied to a global climate model a physically-based subgrid-scale treatment of the influence of orography on temperature, clouds, precipitation, and land surface hydrology. The treatment represents subgrid variations in surface elevation in terms of fractional area distributions of discrete elevation classes. For each class it calculates the height rise/descent of air parcels traveling through the grid cell, and applies the influence of the rise/descent to the temperature and humidity profiles of the elevation class. Cloud, radiative, and surface processes are calculated separately for each elevation class using the same physical parameterizations used by the model without the subgrid parameterization. The simulated climate fields for each elevation class can then be distributed in post-processing according to the spatial distribution of surface elevation within each grid cell. Parallel 10-year simulations with and without the subgrid treatment have been performed. The simulated temperature, precipitation and snow water are mapped to 2.5 minute (~5 km) resolution and compared with gridded analyses of station measurements. The simulation with the subgrid scheme produces a much more realistic distribution of snow water and significantly more realistic distributions of temperature and precipitation than the simulation without the subgrid scheme. Moreover, the grid cell means of most other fields are virtually unchanged by the subgrid scheme. This suggests that the tuning of the climate model without the subgrid scheme is also applicable to the model with the scheme.

Ghan, Steven J.; Bian, Xindi; Hunt, Allen G.; Coleman, Andre M.

2002-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

22

Climate change and agriculture : global and regional effects using an economic model of international trade  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Empirical estimates of the economic welfare implications of the impact of climate change on global agricultural production are made. Agricultural yield changes resulting from climate scenarios associated with a doubling ...

Reilly, John M.

1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

Voronoi Tessellations and Their Application to Climate and Global Modeling  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We review the use of Voronoi tessellations for grid generation, especially on the whole sphere or in regions on the sphere. Voronoi tessellations and the corresponding Delaunay tessellations in regions and surfaces on Euclidean space are defined and properties they possess that make them well-suited for grid generation purposes are discussed, as are algorithms for their construction. This is followed by a more detailed look at one very special type of Voronoi tessellation, the centroidal Voronoi tessellation (CVT). After defining them, discussing some of their properties, and presenting algorithms for their construction, we illustrate the use of CVTs for producing both quasi-uniform and variable resolution meshes in the plane and on the sphere. Finally, we briefly discuss the computational solution of model equations based on CVTs on the sphere.

Ju, Lili [University of South Carolina; Ringler, Todd [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Gunzburger, Max [Florida State University

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Global Climate & Catastrophic Risk  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Global Climate & Catastrophic Risk Forum 2012 A Joint Program with LA RIMS Education Day Rethinking Catastrophic Risk in Risk Management: Earthquake-Related Challenges Featuring: Keynote Speaker Dr. Frank Beuthin, Willis Group Holdings Plc. Yohei Miyamoto, Aon Risk Solutions Curtis deVera, Marsh

de Lijser, Peter

25

Assessing the Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Pacific Storm Track Using a Multiscale Global Climate Model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Atmospheric aerosols impact weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track using a multi-scale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and pre-industrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by - 2.5 and + 1.3 W m-2, respectively, by emission changes from pre-industrial to present day, and an increased cloud-top height indicates invigorated mid-latitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides for the first time a global perspective of the impacts of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multi-scale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on the global scale.

Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan; Molina, Mario J.

2014-05-13T23:59:59.000Z

26

Collaborative Proposal: Transforming How Climate System Models are Used: A Global, Multi-Resolution Approach  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Despite the great interest in regional modeling for both weather and climate applications, regional modeling is not yet at the stage that it can be used routinely and effectively for climate modeling of the ocean. The overarching goal of this project is to transform how climate models are used by developing and implementing a robust, efficient, and accurate global approach to regional ocean modeling. To achieve this goal, we will use theoretical and computational means to resolve several basic modeling and algorithmic issues. The first task is to develop techniques for transitioning between parameterized and high-fidelity regional ocean models as the discretization grid transitions from coarse to fine regions. The second task is to develop estimates for the error in scientifically relevant quantities of interest that provide a systematic way to automatically determine where refinement is needed in order to obtain accurate simulations of dynamic and tracer transport in regional ocean models. The third task is to develop efficient, accurate, and robust time-stepping schemes for variable spatial resolution discretizations used in regional ocean models of dynamics and tracer transport. The fourth task is to develop frequency-dependent eddy viscosity finite element and discontinuous Galerkin methods and study their performance and effectiveness for simulation of dynamics and tracer transport in regional ocean models. These four projects share common difficulties and will be approach using a common computational and mathematical toolbox. This is a multidisciplinary project involving faculty and postdocs from Colorado State University, Florida State University, and Penn State University along with scientists from Los Alamos National Laboratory. The completion of the tasks listed within the discussion of the four sub-projects will go a long way towards meeting our goal of developing superior regional ocean models that will transform how climate system models are used.

Estep, Donald

2013-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

27

Conservation and Global Climate Change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

V.6 Conservation and Global Climate Change Diane M. Debinski and Molly S. Cross OUTLINE 1. Introduction 2. How climate is changing 3. Environmental responses to climate change 4. Consequences of climate the coming decades will be preserving biodiversity in the face of climate change. It has become increasingly

Landweber, Laura

28

A High-Resolution Global Climate Simulation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A major factor limiting the quality and usefulness of global climate models is the coarse spatial resolution of these models. Global climate models today are typically run at resolutions of {approx}300 km (or even coarser) meaning that the smallest features represented are 300 km across. As Figure 1 shows, this resolution does not allow adequate representation of small or even large topographic features (e.g. the Sierra Nevada mountains). As a result of this and other problems, coarse-resolution global models do not come close to accurately simulating climate on regional spatial scales (e.g. within California). Results on continental and larger sales are much more realistic. An important consequence of this inability to simulate regional climate is that global climate model results cannot be used as the basis of assessments of potential societal impacts of climate change (e.g. effects on agriculture in the Central Valley, on management of water resources, etc.).

Duffy, P B

2001-01-23T23:59:59.000Z

29

A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Review: A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, andEdwards, Paul N. A Vast Machine: Computer Models, ClimateEdwards, Paul N. 2004. "A vast machine: standards as social

Maret, Susan

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

Thinking about global climate change  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Opinions regarding issues related to global climate change are presented. The focus is on socioeconomic and historical aspects. World War II is discussed as an intellectual and emotional turning point in global issues, and global climate change is identified as a possible turning point of similar significance. Political, scientific, and public points of view regarding the issue are discussed.

Russell, M. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

1992-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

31

Global Climate Change Impacts:Global Climate Change Impacts: Implications for Climate EngineeringImplications for Climate Engineering  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Global Climate Change Impacts:Global Climate Change Impacts: Implications for Climate Engineering Center Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States October 29, 2009 #12;2Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States 2 Response Strategies to ClimateResponse Strategies to Climate ChangeChange

Polz, Martin

32

Evaluating Clouds, Aerosols, and their Interactions in Three Global Climate Models using COSP and Satellite Observations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Accurately representing aerosol-cloud interactions in global climate models is challenging. As parameterizations evolve, it is important to evaluate their performance with appropriate use of observations. In this work we compare aerosols, clouds, and their interactions in three climate models (AM3, CAM5, ModelE) to MODIS satellite observations. Modeled cloud properties were diagnosed using the CFMIP Observations Simulator Package (COSP). Cloud droplet number concentrations (N) were derived using the same algorithm for both satellite-simulated model values and observations. We find that aerosol optical depth tau simulated by models is similar to observations. For N, AM3 and CAM5 capture the observed spatial pattern of higher values in near-coast versus remote ocean regions, though modeled values in general are higher than observed. In contrast, ModelE simulates lower N in most near-coast versus remote regions. Aerosol- cloud interactions were computed as the sensitivity of N to tau for marine liquid clouds off the coasts of South Africa and Eastern Asia where aerosol pollution varies in time. AM3 and CAM5 are in most cases more sensitive than observations, while the sensitivity for ModelE is statistically insignificant. This widely used sensitivity could be subject to misinterpretation due to the confounding influence of meteorology on both aerosols and clouds. A simple framework for assessing the N Ė tau sensitivity at constant meteorology illustrates that observed sensitivity can change from positive to statistically insignificant when including the confounding influence of relative humidity. Satellite simulated values of N were compared to standard model output and found to be higher with a bias of 83 cm-3.

Ban-Weiss, George; Jin, Ling; Bauer, S.; Bennartz, Ralph; Liu, Xiaohong; Zhang, Kai; Ming, Yi; Guo, Huan; Jiang, Jonathan

2014-09-23T23:59:59.000Z

33

Global air quality and climate  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Evaluation of Chemistry- Climate Models 5, 2010. 320 S. Wu,and R. Van Dorland, in Climate Change 2007: The PhysicalInter- governmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. D. Qin, M.

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model ...

Monier, Erwan

35

Global well-posedness of strong solutions to a tropical climate model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this paper, we consider the Cauchy problem to the TROPIC CLIMATE MODEL derived by Frierson-Majda-Pauluis in [Comm. Math. Sci, Vol. 2 (2004)] which is a coupled system of the barotropic and the first baroclinic modes of the velocity and the typical midtropospheric temperature. The system considered in this paper has viscosities in the momentum equations, but no diffusivity in the temperature equation. We establish here the global well-posedness of strong solutions to this model. In proving the global existence of strong solutions, to overcome the difficulty caused by the absence of the diffusivity in the temperature equation, we introduce a new velocity $w$ (called the pseudo baroclinic velocity), which has more regularities than the original baroclinic mode of the velocity. An auxiliary function $\\phi$, which looks like the effective viscous flux for the compressible Navier-Stokes equations, is also introduced to obtain the $L^\\infty$ bound of the temperature. Regarding the uniqueness, we use the idea of p...

Li, Jinkai

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Planetary boundary layer depth in Global climate models induced biases in surface climatology  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Earth has warmed in the last century with the most rapid warming occurring near the surface in the arctic. This enhanced surface warming in the Arctic is partly because the extra heat is trapped in a thin layer of air near the surface due to the persistent stable-stratification found in this region. The warming of the surface air due to the extra heat depends upon the amount of turbulent mixing in the atmosphere, which is described by the depth of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). In this way the depth of the ABL determines the effective response of the surface air temperature to perturbations in the climate forcing. The ABL depth can vary from tens of meters to a few kilometers which presents a challenge for global climate models which cannot resolve the shallower layers. Here we show that the uncertainties in the depth of the ABL can explain up to 60 percent of the difference between the simulated and observed surface air temperature trends and 50 percent of the difference in temperature variability...

Davy, Richard

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

The Role of Stratification-Dependent Mixing for the Stability of the Atlantic Overturning in a Global Climate Model*  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in a Global Climate Model* BEN MARZEION Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, and Bjerknes Centre oceanic heat transport. Subsequently, and in opposition to results from previous studies, the overturning, as seen, for example, in temperature reconstructions from Greenland ice cores, are often ex- plained

Marzeion, Ben

38

Global distribution and climate forcing of marine organic aerosol: 1. Model improvements and evaluation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Marine organic aerosol emissions have been implemented and evaluated within the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR)'s Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's 7-mode Modal Aerosol Module (MAM-7). Emissions of marine primary organic aerosols (POA), phytoplanktonproduced isoprene- and monoterpenes-derived secondary organic aerosols (SOA) and methane sulfonate (MS{sup -}) are shown to affect surface concentrations of organic aerosols in remote marine regions. Global emissions of submicron marine POA is estimated to be 7.9 and 9.4 Tg yr{sup -1}, for the Gantt et al. (2011) and Vignati et al. (2010) emission parameterizations, respectively. Marine sources of SOA and particulate MS{sup -} (containing both sulfur and carbon atoms) contribute an additional 0.2 and 5.1 Tg yr{sup -1}, respectively. Widespread areas over productive waters of the Northern Atlantic, Northern Pacific, and the Southern Ocean show marine-source submicron organic aerosol surface concentrations of 100 ngm{sup -3}, with values up to 400 ngm{sup -3} over biologically productive areas. Comparison of long-term surface observations of water insoluble organic matter (WIOM) with POA concentrations from the two emission parameterizations shows that despite revealed discrepancies (often more than a factor of 2), both Gantt et al. (2011) and Vignati et al. (2010) formulations are able to capture the magnitude of marine organic aerosol concentrations, with the Gantt et al. (2011) parameterization attaining better seasonality. Model simulations show that the mixing state of the marine POA can impact the surface number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The largest increases (up to 20 %) in CCN (at a supersaturation (S) of 0.2 %) number concentration are obtained over biologically productive ocean waters when marine organic aerosol is assumed to be externally mixed with sea-salt. Assuming marine organics are internally-mixed with sea-salt provides diverse results with increases and decreases in the concentration of CCN over different parts of the ocean. The sign of the CCN change due to the addition of marine organics to seasalt aerosol is determined by the relative significance of the increase in mean modal diameter due to addition of mass, and the decrease in particle hygroscopicity due to compositional changes in marine aerosol. Based on emerging evidence for increased CCN concentration over biologically active surface ocean areas/periods, our study suggests that treatment of sea spray in global climate models (GCMs) as an internal mixture of marine organic aerosols and sea-salt will likely lead to an underestimation in CCN number concentration.

Meskhidze, N.; Xu, J.; Gantt, Brett; Zhang, Yang; Nenes, Athanasios; Ghan, Steven J.; Liu, Xiaohong; Easter, Richard C.; Zaveri, Rahul A.

2011-11-23T23:59:59.000Z

39

A Global Interactive Chemistry and Climate Model Chien Wang, Ronald G. Prinn and Andrei P. Sokolov  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with calculated or estimated trace gas emissions from both anthropogenic and natural sources, it is designed to the chemistry sub-model. Model predictions of the surface trends of several key species are close, if the current increasing trends of anthropogenic emissions of climate-relevant gases are continued over the next

40

Regional & Global Climate Modeling (RGCM) Program | U.S. DOE Office of  

Office of Science (SC) Website

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear SecurityTensile Strain Switched5 IndustrialIsadore Perlman,BiosScience (SC) Regional & Global Climate

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Global ice sheet modeling  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed.

Hughes, T.J.; Fastook, J.L. [Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME (United States). Institute for Quaternary Studies

1994-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

Climate Effects of Global Land Cover Change  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

There are two competing effects of global land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to heating when changing from grass/croplands to forest, and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate in a global land cover change scenario. We have performed coupled land/ocean/atmosphere simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model. We find that replacement of current vegetation by trees on a global basis would lead to a global annual mean warming of 1.6 C, nearly 75% of the warming produced under a doubled CO{sub 2} concentration, while global replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4 C. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming. In particular, high latitude forests probably have a net warming effect on the Earth's climate.

Gibbard, S G; Caldeira, K; Bala, G; Phillips, T; Wickett, M

2005-08-24T23:59:59.000Z

43

Global Climate Change,Global Climate Change, Land Cover Change, andLand Cover Change, and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Global Climate Change,Global Climate Change, Land Cover Change, andLand Cover Change Changes · Due to ­ Climate Change ­ Land Cover / Land Use Change ­ Interaction of Climate and Land Cover Change · Resolution ­ Space ­ Time Hydro-Climatic Change · Variability vs. Change (Trends) · Point data

44

Global Climate Modeling of the Martian water cycle with improved microphysics and radiatively active water ice clouds  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Radiative effects of water ice clouds have noteworthy consequences on the Martian atmosphere, its thermal structure and circulation. Accordingly, the inclusion of such effects in the LMD Mars Global Climate Model (GCM) greatly modifies the simulated Martian water cycle. The intent of this paper is to address the impact of radiatively active clouds on atmospheric water vapor and ice in the GCM and improve its representation. We propose a new enhanced modeling of the water cycle, consisting of detailed cloud microphysics with dynamic condensation nuclei and a better implementation of perennial surface water ice. This physical modeling is based on tunable parameters. This new version of the GCM is compared to the Thermal Emission Spectrometer observations of the water cycle. Satisfying results are reached for both vapor and cloud opacities. However, simulations yield a lack of water vapor in the tropics after Ls=180{\\deg} which is persistent in simulations compared to observations, as a consequence of aphelion c...

Navarro, Thomas; Forget, FranÁois; Spiga, Aymeric; Millour, Ehouarn; Montmessin, Franck

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

Do Coupled Climate Models Correctly SImulate the Upward Branch of the Deept Ocean Global Conveyor?  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The large-scale meridional overturning circulation (MOC) connects the deep ocean, a major reservoir of carbon, to the other components of the climate system and must therefore be accurately represented in Earth System Models. Our project aims to address the specific question of the pathways and mechanisms controlling the upwelling branch of the MOC, a subject of significant disagreement between models and observational syntheses, and among general circulation models. Observations of these pathways are limited, particularly in regions of complex hydrography such as the Southern Ocean. As such, we rely on models to examine theories of the overturning circulation, both physically and biogeochemically. This grant focused on a particular aspect of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) where there is currently significant disagreement between models and observationally based analyses of the MOC, and amongst general circulation models. In particular, the research focused on addressing the following questions: 1. Where does the deep water that sinks in the polar regions rise to the surface? 2. What processes are responsible for this rise? 3. Do state-of-the-art coupled GCMs capture these processes? Our research had three key components: observational synthesis, model development and model analysis. In this final report we outline the key results from these areas of research for the 2007 to 2012 grant period. The research described here was carried out primarily by graduate student, Daniele Bianchi (now a Postdoc at McGill University, Canada), and Postdoc Stephanie Downes (now a Research Fellow at The Australian national University, Australia). Additional support was provided for programmers Jennifer Simeon as well as Rick Slater.

Sarmiento, Jorge L; Downes, Stephanie; Bianchi, Daniele

2013-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

46

A Vast Machine Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Climatology--History. 3. Meteorology--History. 4. Climatology--Technological innovation. 5. Global temperature

Edwards, Paul N.

47

Soil degradation, global warming and climate impacts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

will demonstrate one methodology for assessing the potential large-scale impacts of soil degradation on African climates and water resources. In addition it will compare and contrast these impacts to those expected from global warming and compare impacts for differ...- ent watershed regions on the continent. 2. METHODS In order to make a similar comparison between pro- jected climate change scenarios due to global warming © Inter-Research 2001 *E-mail: feddema@ku.edu Soil degradation, global warming and climate...

Feddema, Johannes J.; Freire, Sergio Carneiro

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

WHAT'S IN A NAME? GLOBAL WARMING VERSUS CLIMATE CHANGE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

WHAT'S IN A NAME? GLOBAL WARMING VERSUS CLIMATE CHANGE May 2014 #12;What's In A Name? Global Warming vs. Climate Change 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE NATIONAL SURVEY STUDY 2: GLOBAL WARMING VS. CLIMATE CHANGE............................ 10 Is global

Haller, Gary L.

49

Global Climate Change: Environment, Technology and Society  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Appreciate the main aspects of hydropower resource estimation, turbine design, deployment and environmental AND ASSESSMENTS Global Climate Change: Environment, Technology and Society I am a Civil Hydraulic

Mumby, Peter J.

50

How strong is carbon cycle-climate feedback under global warming?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and physical climate system in a global warming scenario is studied using an Earth system model including

Maryland at College Park, University of

51

Sensitivity of Remote Aerosol Distributions to Representation of Cloud-Aerosol Interactions in a Global Climate Model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Many global aerosol and climate models, including the widely used Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), have large biases in predicting aerosols in remote regions such as upper troposphere and high latitudes. In this study, we conduct CAM5 sensitivity simulations to understand the role of key processes associated with aerosol transformation and wet removal affecting the vertical and horizontal long-range transport of aerosols to the remote regions. Improvements are made to processes that are currently not well represented in CAM5, which are guided by surface and aircraft measurements together with results from a multi-scale aerosol-climate model (PNNL-MMF) that explicitly represents convection and aerosol-cloud interactions at cloud-resolving scales. We pay particular attention to black carbon (BC) due to its importance in the Earth system and the availability of measurements. We introduce into CAM5 a new unified scheme for convective transport and aerosol wet removal with explicit aerosol activation above convective cloud base. This new implementation reduces the excessive BC aloft to better simulate observed BC profiles that show decreasing mixing ratios in the mid- to upper-troposphere. After implementing this new unified convective scheme, we examine wet removal of submicron aerosols that occurs primarily through cloud processes. The wet removal depends strongly on the sub-grid scale liquid cloud fraction and the rate of conversion of liquid water to precipitation. These processes lead to very strong wet removal of BC and other aerosols over mid- to high latitudes during winter months. With our improvements, the Arctic BC burden has a10-fold (5-fold) increase in the winter (summer) months, resulting in a much better simulation of the BC seasonal cycle as well. Arctic sulphate and other aerosol species also increase but to a lesser extent. An explicit treatment of BC aging with slower aging assumptions produces an additional 30-fold (5-fold) increase in the Arctic winter (summer) BC burden. This BC aging treatment, however, has minimal effect on other under-predicted species. Interestingly, our modifications to CAM5 that aim at improving prediction of high-latitude and upper tropospheric aerosols also produce much better AOD and AAOD over various other regions globally when compared to multi-year AERONET retrievals. The improved aerosol distributions have impacts on other aspects of CAM5, improving the simulation of global mean liquid water path and cloud forcing.

Wang, Hailong; Easter, Richard C.; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Minghuai; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven J.; Qian, Yun; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Ma, Po-Lun; Vinoj, V.

2013-06-05T23:59:59.000Z

52

Using NASA Remote Sensing Data to Reduce Uncertainty of Land-Use Transitions in Global Carbon-Climate Models: Data Management Plan  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-use transitions and their inherent uncertainty. Our plan for managing these datasets includes quality assessmentUsing NASA Remote Sensing Data to Reduce Uncertainty of Land-Use Transitions in Global Carbon-Climate Models: Data Management Plan L. Chini, G.C. Hurtt, M. Hansen, and P. Potapov Department of Geography

53

Local and Seasonal Effects in the U.S. of Global Climate Change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Though the facts of global climate change are beyond doubt, there has been relatively limited information about its local consequences. Global climate models and their derivatives have provided often differing and unspecific ...

Eckaus, Richard S.

2012-05-21T23:59:59.000Z

54

Simulated diurnal rainfall physics in a multi-scale global climate model with embedded explicit convection  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

their Community Earth System Model (Richard Neale, personaldevelopment of Earth system models capable of reproducing

Pritchard, Michael Stephen

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

55

The Tropical Atmospheric El Nio Signal in Satellite Precipitation Data and a Global Climate Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) ABSTRACT Aspects of the tropical atmospheric response to El Ni√Īo related to the global energy and water and the Advanced Micro- wave Scanning Radiometer-E and simulations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies are highly correlated, but anomalies in stratiform¬≠convective rainfall partitioning in the two datasets

56

A Cross-model Comparison of Global Long-term Technology Diffusion under a 2?C Climate Change Control Target  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We investigate the long-term global energy technology diffusion patterns required to reach a stringent climate change target with a maximum average atmospheric temperature increase of 2įC. If the anthropogenic temperature increase is to be limited to 2įC, total CO2 emissions have to be reduced massively, so as to reach substantial negative values during the second half of the century. Particularly power sector CO2 emissions should become negative from around 2050 onwards according to most models used for this analysis in order to compensate for GHG emissions in other sectors where abatement is more costly. The annual additional capacity deployment intensity (expressed in GW/yr) for solar and wind energy until 2030 needs to be around that recently observed for coal-based power plants, and will have to be several times higher in the period 2030Ė2050. Relatively high agreement exists across models in terms of the aggregated low-carbon energy system cost requirements on the supply side until 2050, which amount to about 50 trillion US$.

van der Zwaan, Bob; Rosler, Hilke; Kober, Tom; Aboumahboub, Tino; Calvin, Katherine V.; Gernaat, David; Marangoni, Giacomo; McCollum, David

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

An examination of urban heat island characteristics in a global climate model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and urban properties devel- oped by Jackson et al. (2010). Urban extent, defined for four classes [tall building district (TBD), and high, medium and low density (HD, MD, LD)], was derived from LandScan 2004 [Oak Ridge National Laboratories (ORNL) 2005, Land...Scan? Global Population Database, Oak Ridge, TN (http://www.ornl.gov/landscan/)], a pop- ulation density dataset derived from census data, night- time lights satellite observations, road proximity and slope (Dobson et al., 2000). The urban extent data...

Oleson, Keith W.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Feddema, Johannes J.; Jackson, Trisha L.

2010-07-27T23:59:59.000Z

58

Incorporating Urban Systems in Global Climate Models: The Role of GIScience  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

0.92 brick 0.7 1360.0 0.3 1700 800 0.9 mud 1.0 1456.0 0.3 1820 800 0.9 wood 0.1 1127.5 0.5 550 2050 0.87 glass 0.9 2100.0 0.08 2500 840 0.91 stone 2.6 2310.0 0.275 2750 840 0.92 adobe 1.0 1456.0 0.3 1820 800 0.91 rubble 0.8 950 0.275 1900 500 0..., Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FC02- 97ER62402, by the National Science Foundation grant numbers ATM-0107404, and ATM-0413540, the NCAR Weather and Climate Impact Assessment Science Initiative, and the University of Kansas, Center for Research. Motivation...

Feddema, Johannes J.

2006-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

59

Global Climate Change and National Security  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

5/16/2014 1 Global Climate Change and National Security RADM Jon White Oceanographer and Navigator months. · Oil, gas, and mineral resource exploitation expected to continue · Production/transportatio n

Howat, Ian M.

60

CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL ECONOMY How to decarbonise the global economy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CLIMATE CHANGE · GLOBAL ECONOMY How to decarbonise the global economy Today's report on deep efforts of independent experts from 15 countries to find national pathways to making economies based-zero emissions sometime in the second half of this century. This deep cut should occur in a growing world economy

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Sandia National Laboratories: Global Climate & Energy  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

from improved climate models to performance models for underground waste storage to 3D printing and digital rock physics. Marianne Walck (Director ... Sandia Participated in the...

62

Stabilization and Global Climate Policy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Academic and political debates over long-run climate policy often invoke ďstabilizationĒ of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), but only rarely are non-CO2 greenhouse gases addressed explicitly. Even ...

Sarofim, Marcus C.

63

Global climate change and international security.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

Karas, Thomas H.

2003-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector 2002 DEER...

65

Global Climate Change Alliance Training Workshops on Mainstreaming...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Alliance Training Workshops on Mainstreaming Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Global Climate Change Alliance Training Workshop on...

66

Issued March 2004 Global Climate & Energy Project  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

University Objective The objective of this project is to develop optimized nanocomposite materials for high of the project Design of Nanotube-Metal Nanocluster Complex Meeting the Hydrogen Storage Material RequirementsIssued March 2004 Global Climate & Energy Project STANFORD UNIVERSITY Nanomaterials Engineering

Prinz, Friedrich B.

67

Issued March 2012 Global Climate & Energy Project  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Issued March 2012 Global Climate & Energy Project STANFORD UNIVERSITY Reactivity of CO2 underground. The research team will focus on understanding the chemical reactions that occur when CO2, researchers will determine the optimum geochemical conditions for converting captured CO2 into carbonates

Straight, Aaron

68

Global Climate Change, Developing Countries and Transport Sector Options in South Africa  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

on Global Climate Change: Developing Countries and Transporton Global Climate Change: Developing Countries and Transporton Global Climate Change: Developing Countries and Transport

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

69

Global fish production and climate change  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Current global fisheries production of {approx}160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but there is low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are giverned by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipiation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the pricipal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

Brander, K.M. [International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, Copenhagen (Denmark)

2007-12-11T23:59:59.000Z

70

Response of precipitation extremes to idealized global warming in an aqua-planet climate model: Towards robust projection across different horizontal resolutions  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Current climate models produce quite heterogeneous projections for the responses of precipitation extremes to future climate change. To help understand the range of projections from multimodel ensembles, a series of idealized 'aquaplanet' Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) runs have been performed with the Community Atmosphere Model CAM3. These runs have been analysed to identify the effects of horizontal resolution on precipitation extreme projections under two simple global warming scenarios. We adopt the aquaplanet framework for our simulations to remove any sensitivity to the spatial resolution of external inputs and to focus on the roles of model physics and dynamics. Results show that a uniform increase of sea surface temperature (SST) and an increase of low-to-high latitude SST gradient both lead to increase of precipitation and precipitation extremes for most latitudes. The perturbed SSTs generally have stronger impacts on precipitation extremes than on mean precipitation. Horizontal model resolution strongly affects the global warming signals in the extreme precipitation in tropical and subtropical regions but not in high latitude regions. This study illustrates that the effects of horizontal resolution have to be taken into account to develop more robust projections of precipitation extremes.

Li, F.; Collins, W.D.; Wehner, M.F.; Williamson, D.L.; Olson, J.G.

2011-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

71

Energy and Climate Change: 15th National Conference and Global...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Energy and Climate Change: 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy, and the Environment Energy and Climate Change: 15th National Conference and Global Forum on...

72

U.S. Global Change Research Program publishes "National Climate...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Super contributor 18 January, 2013 - 15:46 climate change drought OpenEI sea level rise temperatures U.S. Global Climate Change program The U.S. Global Change Research...

73

UWM Global Climate Change and Sustainable Development Initiative CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

UWM Global Climate Change and Sustainable Development Initiative CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Sponsored By UWM Global Climate Change and Sustainable Development Initiative Co Conference Description This conference will discuss the global issue of climate change in the regional

Saldin, Dilano

74

Regional Climate Modeling: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Regional climate modeling with regional climate models (RCMs) has matured over the past decade and allows for meaningful utilization in a broad spectrum of applications. In this paper, latest progresses in regional climate modeling studies are reviewed, including RCM development, applications of RCMs to dynamical downscaling for climate change assessment, seasonal climate predictions and climate process studies, and the study of regional climate predictability. Challenges and potential directions of future research in this important area are discussed, with the focus on those to which less attention has been given previously, such as the importance of ensemble simulations, further development and improvement of regional climate modeling approach, modeling extreme climate events and sub-daily variation of clouds and precipitation, model evaluation and diagnostics, applications of RCMs to climate process studies and seasonal predictions, and development of regional earth system models. It is believed that with both the demonstrated credibility of RCMsí capability in reproducing not only monthly to seasonal mean climate and interannual variability but also the extreme climate events when driven by good quality reanalysis and the continuous improvements in the skill of global general circulation models (GCMs) in simulating large-scale atmospheric circulation, regional climate modeling will remain an important dynamical downscaling tool for providing the needed information for assessing climate change impacts and seasonal climate predictions, and a powerful tool for improving our understanding of regional climate processes. An internationally coordinated effort can be developed with different focuses by different groups to advance regional climate modeling studies. It is also recognized that since the final quality of the results from nested RCMs depends in part on the realism of the large-scale forcing provided by GCMs, the reduction of errors and improvement in physics parameterizations in both GCMs and RCMs remain a priority for climate modeling community.

Wang, Yuqing; Leung, Lai R.; McGregor, John L.; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Ding, Yihui; Kimura, Fujio

2004-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

75

Author's personal copy Two-way coupling of an ENSO model to the global climate model CLIMBER-3a  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

it is possible to introduce ENSO variability to an Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC we are using here. In this study we couple the Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC

Levermann, Anders

76

Sandia National Laboratories: Global Climate & Energy  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -theErik Spoerke SSLS Exhibit at ExploraGlobal Sandia Co-HostsTheGlobal Climate

77

A Comparison of Simulated Cloud Radar Output from the Multiscale Modeling Framework Global Climate Model with CloudSat Cloud Radar Observations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Over the last few years a new type of global climate model (GCM) has emerged in which a cloud-resolving model is embedded into each grid cell of a GCM. This new approach is frequently called a multiscale modeling framework (MMF) or superparameterization. In this article we present a comparison of MMF output with radar observations from the NASA CloudSat mission, which uses a near-nadir-pointing millimeter-wavelength radar to probe the vertical structure of clouds and precipitation. We account for radar detection limits by simulating the 94 GHz radar reflectivity that CloudSat would observe from the high-resolution cloud-resolving model output produced by the MMF. Overall, the MMF does a good job of reproducing the broad pattern of tropical convergence zones, subtropical belts, and midlatitude storm tracks, as well as their changes in position with the annual solar cycle. Nonetheless, the comparison also reveals a number of model shortfalls including (1) excessive hydrometeor coverage at all altitudes over many convectively active regions, (2) a lack of low-level hydrometeors over all subtropical oceanic basins, (3) excessive low-level hydrometeor coverage (principally precipitating hydrometeors) in the midlatitude storm tracks of both hemispheres during the summer season (in each hemisphere), and (4) a thin band of low-level hydrometeors in the Southern Hemisphere of the central (and at times eastern and western) Pacific in the MMF, which is not observed by CloudSat. This band resembles a second much weaker ITCZ but is restricted to low levels.

Marchand, Roger T.; Haynes, J. M.; Mace, Gerald G.; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Stephens, Graeme L.

2009-01-13T23:59:59.000Z

78

Effect of Terrestrial and Marine Organic Aerosol on Regional and Global Climate: Model Development, Application, and Verification with Satellite Data  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this DOE project the improvements to parameterization of marine primary organic matter (POM) emissions, hygroscopic properties of marine POM, marine isoprene derived secondary organic aerosol (SOA) emissions, surfactant effects, new cloud droplet activation parameterization have been implemented into Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 5.0), with a seven mode aerosol module from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)√?¬?√?¬Ę√?¬?√?¬?√?¬?√?¬?s Modal Aerosol Model (MAM7). The effects of marine aerosols derived from sea spray and ocean emitted biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) on microphysical properties of clouds were explored by conducting 10 year CAM5.0-MAM7 model simulations at a grid resolution 1.9√?¬?√?¬?√?¬?√?¬į√?¬?√?¬?√?¬?√?¬?2.5√?¬?√?¬?√?¬?√?¬į with 30 vertical layers. Model-predicted relationship between ocean physical and biological systems and the abundance of CCN in remote marine atmosphere was compared to data from the A-Train satellites (MODIS, CALIPSO, AMSR-E). Model simulations show that on average, primary and secondary organic aerosol emissions from the ocean can yield up to 20% increase in Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) at 0.2% Supersaturation, and up to 5% increases in droplet number concentration of global maritime shallow clouds. Marine organics were treated as internally or externally mixed with sea salt. Changes associated with cloud properties reduced (absolute value) the model-predicted short wave cloud forcing from -1.35 Wm-2 to -0.25 Wm-2. By using different emission scenarios, and droplet activation parameterizations, this study suggests that addition of marine primary aerosols and biologically generated reactive gases makes an important difference in radiative forcing assessments. All baseline and sensitivity simulations for 2001 and 2050 using global-through-urban WRF/Chem (GU-WRF) were completed. The main objective of these simulations was to evaluate the capability of GU-WRF for an accurate representation of the global atmosphere by exploring the most accurate configuration of physics options in GWRF for global scale modeling in 2001 at a horizontal grid resolution of 1√?¬?√?¬?√?¬?√?¬į x 1√?¬?√?¬?√?¬?√?¬į. GU-WRF model output was evaluated using observational datasets from a variety of sources including surface based observations (NCDC and BSRN), model reanalysis (NCEP/ NCAR Reanalysis and CMAP), and remotely-sensed data (TRMM) to evaluate the ability of GU-WRF to simulate atmospheric variables at the surface as well as aloft. Explicit treatment of nanoparticles produced from new particle formation in GU-WRF/Chem-MADRID was achieved by expanding particle size sections from 8 to 12 to cover particles with the size range of 1.16 nm to 11.6 √?¬?√?¬?√?¬?√?¬Ķm. Simulations with two different nucleation parameterizations were conducted for August 2002 over a global domain at a 4√?¬?√?¬?√?¬?√?¬ļ by 5√?¬?√?¬?√?¬?√?¬ļ horizontal resolution. The results are evaluated against field measurement data from the 2002 Aerosol Nucleation and Real Time Characterization Experiment (ANARChE) in Atlanta, Georgia, as well as satellite and reanalysis data. We have also explored the relationship between √?¬?√?¬Ę√?¬?√?¬?√?¬?√?¬?clean marine√?¬?√?¬Ę√?¬?√?¬?√?¬?√?¬Ě aerosol optical properties and ocean surface wind speed using remotely sensed data from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) on board the CALIPSO satellite and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on board the AQUA satellite. Detailed data analyses

Meskhidze, Nicholas; Zhang, Yang; Kamykowski, Daniel

2012-03-28T23:59:59.000Z

79

Refining climate models  

ScienceCinema (OSTI)

Using dogwood trees, Oak Ridge National Laboratory researchers are gaining a better understanding of the role photosynthesis and respiration play in the atmospheric carbon dioxide cycle. Their findings will aid computer modelers in improving the accuracy of climate simulations.

Warren, Jeff; Iversen, Colleen; Brooks, Jonathan; Ricciuto, Daniel

2014-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

80

Refining climate models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Using dogwood trees, Oak Ridge National Laboratory researchers are gaining a better understanding of the role photosynthesis and respiration play in the atmospheric carbon dioxide cycle. Their findings will aid computer modelers in improving the accuracy of climate simulations.

Warren, Jeff; Iversen, Colleen; Brooks, Jonathan; Ricciuto, Daniel

2012-10-31T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Global Climate Change: Opinions and Perceptions of Rural Nebraskans  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Global Climate Change: Opinions and Perceptions of Rural Nebraskans 2008 Nebraska Rural Poll that they understand the issue of global climate change either fairly or very well. #12;Most rural Nebraskans believe climate change is already happening. #12;Most rural Nebraskans believe that our actions contribute

Nebraska-Lincoln, University of

82

Ultra High-Resolution Global Climate Simulation Project PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: James J. Hack  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. This project is developing the scientific a terrestrial carbon modeling capabil- ity. #12;Ultra High-Resolution Global Climate Simulation Project elersUltra High-Resolution Global Climate Simulation Project PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: James J. Hack

83

Global warming and Arctic climate. Raymond S. Bradley  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Global warming and Arctic climate. Raymond S. Bradley Climate System Research Center University of Massachusetts Amherst #12;How have global temperatures changed & why? 1. Average instrumental records from around the world; express all as anomalies from 1961-90 average #12;#12;Overall trend is upward ("global

Mountziaris, T. J.

84

AWI Conference on Global Climate Change Conference Program  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ľ slides (ppt) 10:15 Ľ Break 10:45 Ľ Food and Agriculture Issues How will climate change impact foodAWI Conference on Global Climate Change Conference Program APRU World Institute Workshop on Climate Board 2:30 Ľ Climate Changes Overview Richard C.J. SOMERVILLE, Distinguished Professor, Scripps

Yamamoto, Hirosuke

85

Sandia National Laboratories: Global Climate & Energy  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -theErik Spoerke SSLS Exhibit at ExploraGlobal Sandia Co-Hosts "ClimateMapping

86

The economics of long-term global climate change  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report is intended to provide an overview of economic issues and research relevant to possible, long-term global climate change. It is primarily a critical survey, not a statement of Administration or Department policy. This report should serve to indicate that economic analysis of global change is in its infancy few assertions about costs or benefits can be made with confidence. The state of the literature precludes any attempt to produce anything like a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis. Moreover, almost all the quantitative estimates regarding physical and economic effects in this report, as well as many of the qualitative assertions, are controversial. Section I provides background on greenhouse gas emissions and their likely climatic effects and on available policy instruments. Section II considers the costs of living with global change, assuming no substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Section III considers costs of reducing these emissions, though the available literature does not contain estimates of the costs of policies that would, on the assumptions of current climate models, prevent climate change altogether. The individual sections are not entirely compartmentalized, but can be read independently if necessary.

Not Available

1990-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

87

Illegal logging threatens Congo's forests, global climate Illegal logging threatens Congo's forests, global climate  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

contracts with logging companies covering more than 15 million hectares of forest," the report stated with logging companies instead giving villages gifts of salt and beer worth less than $100. "In a contextIllegal logging threatens Congo's forests, global climate Illegal logging threatens Congo's forests

88

The Influence on Climate Change of Differing Scenarios for Future Development Analyzed Using the MIT Integrated Global System Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A wide variety of scenarios for future development have played significant roles in climate policy discussions. This paper presents projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, sea level rise due to thermal expansion ...

Prinn, Ronald G.

89

White House Conference on Global Climate Change  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

President Clinton has directed the White House office on Environmental Policy to coordinate an interagency process to develop a plan to fulfill the commitment he made in his Earth Day address on April 21, 1993. This plan will become the cornerstone of the Climate Change Plan that will be completed shortly after the Rio Accord enters into force. The Office on Environmental Policy established the Interagency Climate Change Mitigation Group to draw on the expertise of federal agencies including the National Economic Council; the Council of Economic Advisors; the Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Office of Management and Budget; the National Security Council; the Domestic Policy Council; the Environmental Protection Agency; and the Departments of Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Interior, Treasury, Commerce, and State. Working groups have been established to examine six key policy areas: energy demand, energy supply, joint implementation, methane and other gases, sinks, and transportation. The purpose of the White House Conference on Global Climate Change was to ``tap the real-world experiences`` of diverse participants and seek ideas and information for meeting the President`s goals. During the opening session, senior administration officials defined the challenge ahead and encouraged open and frank conversation about the best possible ways to meet it.

Not Available

1993-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

90

alternative global climate: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Information Sciences Websites Summary: A Statistical Analysis of Global Inter-Annual Climate Anomalies in Monthly Sea Surface Temperature Records. Jian Huang and Finbarr...

91

Global Climate Change Policy A significant proportion of scientific opinion, based on both empirical data and large-scale  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Global Climate Change Policy A significant proportion of scientific opinion, based on both of climate change are more uncertain. Global models seem to agree that Northwest temperatures will be higher of climate change on the hydropower system are discussed in Appendix N. Nationwide, the electric power system

92

Global Ice and Land Climate Studies Using Scatterometer Image Data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Global Ice and Land Climate Studies Using Scatterometer Image Data David G. Long Brigham Young CA 91109 ben@pacific.jpl.nasa.gov Sasan.Saatchi@jpl.nasa.gov Cheryl Bertoia U. S. National Ice Center: Long, D. G., M. R. Drinkwater, B. Holt, S. Saatchi, and C. Bertoia, Global ice and land climate studies

Long, David G.

93

16Implications of Global Climate Change for Violence Developed  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

16Implications of Global Climate Change for Violence Developed and Developing Countries CraIG a. an change for violence in developed and developing countries. Chapter in J. Forgas, A. Kruglanski, & KDerson and Matt DeLIsI Iowa State University R apid global climate change, taking place over decades rather than

Debinski, Diane M.

94

Global Warming What is Climate? Ocean's Role in Climate Change Uncertainty Quantification, the Next Frontier The Role Played by Oceans in Climate  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Global Warming What is Climate? Ocean's Role in Climate Change Uncertainty Quantification, the Next Department University of Arizona October 11, 2008 #12;Global Warming What is Climate? Ocean's Role in Climate, Undergraduate Students: 2. UQGQG #12;Global Warming What is Climate? Ocean's Role in Climate Change Uncertainty

Restrepo, Juan M.

95

Sensitivity of Climate to Diapycnal Diffusivity: Part I. Equilibrium State; Part II. Global Warming Scenario  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Part I: The diapycnal diffusivity in the ocean is one of the least known parameters in current climate models. Measurements of this diffusivity are sparse and insufficient for compiling a global map. Inferences from inverse ...

Dalan, Fabio.

96

Climate Multi-model Regression Using Spatial Smoothing Karthik Subbian  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climate Multi-model Regression Using Spatial Smoothing Karthik Subbian Arindam Banerjee Abstract There are several Global Climate Models (GCMs) reported by var- ious countries to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Due to the varied nature of the GCM assumptions, the fu- ture projections

Banerjee, Arindam

97

Global Climate Change: Why Understanding the Scientific Enterprise Matters  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Global Climate Change: Why Understanding the Scientific Enterprise Matters Ellen MosleyPolar/ByrdPolarhttp://bprc.osu.edu/ Understanding Climate Change Risks and Identifying Opportunities for Mitigation & Adaptation in Ohio Ohio State University, May 15, 2014 #12;Key Points Earth's climate is changing - the world is warming ­ that debate

Howat, Ian M.

98

SEASONAL CLIMATE EXTREMES: MECHANISMS, PREDICTABILITY AND RESPONSES TO GLOBAL  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SEASONAL CLIMATE EXTREMES: MECHANISMS, PREDICTABILITY AND RESPONSES TO GLOBAL WARMING Mxolisi Excellent Shongwe #12;ISBN : 978-90-902-5046-5 #12;SEASONAL CLIMATE EXTREMES: MECHANISMS, PREDICTABILITY;. . . Dedicated to my late father John Mabhensa Shongwe #12;ABSTRACT Climate extremes are rarely occurring natural

Haak, Hein

99

Climate Change over the Equatorial Indo-Pacific in Global Warming* CHIE IHARA, YOCHANAN KUSHNIR, AND MARK A. CANE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climate Change over the Equatorial Indo-Pacific in Global Warming* CHIE IHARA, YOCHANAN KUSHNIR to global warming is investigated using model outputs submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate equatorial Indian Ocean warm more than the SSTs in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean under global warming

100

Studying the Causes of Recent Climate Change Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Studying the Causes of Recent Climate Change Ben Santer Program for Climate Model Diagnosis of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate" "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities" "Most

Kammen, Daniel M.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Computer modeling of the global warming effect  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The state of knowledge of global warming will be presented and two aspects examined: observational evidence and a review of the state of computer modeling of climate change due to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. Observational evidence, indeed, shows global warming, but it is difficult to prove that the changes are unequivocally due to the greenhouse-gas effect. Although observational measurements of global warming are subject to ``correction,`` researchers are showing consistent patterns in their interpretation of the data. Since the 1960s, climate scientists have been making their computer models of the climate system more realistic. Models started as atmospheric models and, through the addition of oceans, surface hydrology, and sea-ice components, they then became climate-system models. Because of computer limitations and the limited understanding of the degree of interaction of the various components, present models require substantial simplification. Nevertheless, in their present state of development climate models can reproduce most of the observed large-scale features of the real system, such as wind, temperature, precipitation, ocean current, and sea-ice distribution. The use of supercomputers to advance the spatial resolution and realism of earth-system models will also be discussed.

Washington, W.M. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

1993-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

102

An Integrated Assessment Framework for Uncertainty Studies in Global and Regional Climate Change: The IGSM-CAM  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper describes an integrated assessment framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), ...

Monier, Erwan

2012-06-18T23:59:59.000Z

103

Expanding Global Cooperation on Climate Justice  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in evaluating the financial architecture necessary to support just and sustainable climate interventions

Kammen, Daniel M.

104

Developing Models for Predictive Climate Science  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Community Climate System Model results from a multi-agency collaboration designed to construct cutting-edge climate science simulation models for a broad research community. Predictive climate simulations are currently being prepared for the petascale computers of the near future. Modeling capabilities are continuously being improved in order to provide better answers to critical questions about Earth's climate. Climate change and its implications are front page news in today's world. Could global warming be responsible for the July 2006 heat waves in Europe and the United States? Should more resources be devoted to preparing for an increase in the frequency of strong tropical storms and hurricanes like Katrina? Will coastal cities be flooded due to a rise in sea level? The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), which archives all weather data for the nation, reports that global surface temperatures have increased over the last century, and that the rate of increase is three times greater since 1976. Will temperatures continue to climb at this rate, will they decline again, or will the rate of increase become even steeper? To address such a flurry of questions, scientists must adopt a systematic approach and develop a predictive framework. With responsibility for advising on energy and technology strategies, the DOE is dedicated to advancing climate research in order to elucidate the causes of climate change, including the role of carbon loading from fossil fuel use. Thus, climate science--which by nature involves advanced computing technology and methods--has been the focus of a number of DOE's SciDAC research projects. Dr. John Drake (ORNL) and Dr. Philip Jones (LANL) served as principal investigators on the SciDAC project, 'Collaborative Design and Development of the Community Climate System Model for Terascale Computers.' The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is a fully-coupled global system that provides state-of-the-art computer simulations of the Earth's past, present, and future climate states. The collaborative SciDAC team--including over a dozen researchers at institutions around the country--developed, validated, documented, and optimized the performance of CCSM using the latest software engineering approaches, computational technology, and scientific knowledge. Many of the factors that must be accounted for in a comprehensive model of the climate system are illustrated in figure 1.

Drake, John B [ORNL; Jones, Philip W [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

105

Benchmark experiments with global climate models applicable to extra-solar gas giant planets in the shallow atmosphere approximation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The growing field of exoplanetary atmospheric modelling has seen little work on standardised benchmark tests for its models, limiting understanding of the dependence of results on specific models and conditions. With spatially resolved observations as yet difficult to obtain, such a test is invaluable. Although an intercomparison test for models of tidally locked gas giant planets has previously been suggested and carried out, the data provided were limited in terms of comparability. Here, the shallow PUMA model is subjected to such a test, and detailed statistics produced to facilitate comparison, with both time means and the associated standard deviations displayed, removing the time dependence and providing a measure of the variability. Model runs have been analysed to determine the variability between resolutions, and the effect of resolution on the energy spectra studied. Superrotation is a robust and reproducible feature at all resolutions.

Bending, V L; Kolb, U

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

106

Chapter 1 Climate monitoring The European Commission strategy for global climate change studies and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Chapter 1 Climate monitoring The European Commission strategy for global climate change studies, Jerusalem, Israel Precipitation as a centerpiece in Climate Change Water is the lifeblood of our livelihood on Earth. Temperature-driven inhabitable areas are due to too cold temperatures, and not due to excessively

Daniel, Rosenfeld

107

Global Climate Change Assessment Report Shows Nations Not Doing...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Global Climate Change Assessment Report Shows Nations Not Doing Enough Home > Blogs > Dc's blog Dc's picture Submitted by Dc(107) Contributor 5 November, 2014 - 14:49 The latest...

108

THE IMPACT OF THERMAL ENGINEERING RESEARCH ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Global climate change is recognized by many people around the world as being one of the most pressing issues facing our society today. The thermal engineering research community clearly plays an important role in addressing this critical issue, but what kind of thermal engineering research is, or will be, most impactful? In other words, in what directions should thermal engineering research be targeted in order to derive the greatest benefit with respect to global climate change? To answer this question we consider the potential reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, coupled with potential economic impacts, resulting from thermal engineering research. Here a new model framework is introduced that allows a technological, sector-by-sector analysis of GHG emissions avoidance. For each sector, we consider the maximum reduction in CO2 emissions due to such research, and the cost effectiveness of the new efficient technologies. The results are normalized on a country-by-country basis, where we consider the USA, the European Union, China, India, and Australia as representative countries or regions. Among energy supply-side technologies, improvements in coal-burning power generation are seen as having the most beneficial CO2 and economic impacts. The one demand-side technology considered, residential space cooling, offers positive but limited impacts. The proposed framework can be extended to include additional technologies and impacts, such as water consumption.

Phelan, Patrick [Arizona State University; Abdelaziz, Omar [ORNL; Otanicar, Todd [University of Tulsa; Phelan, Bernadette [Phelan Research Solutions, Inc.; Prasher, Ravi [Arizona State University; Taylor, Robert [University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; Tyagi, Himanshu [Indian Institute of Technology Ropar, India

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

Biogeophysical effects of CO2-fertilization on global climate  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

CO{sub 2}-fertilization affects plant growth, which modifies surface physical properties, altering the surface albedo, and fluxes of sensible and latent heat. We investigate how such CO{sub 2}-fertilization effects on vegetation and surface properties would affect the climate system. Using a global three-dimensional climate-carbon model that simulates vegetation dynamics, we compare two multi-century simulations: a ''Control'' simulation with no emissions, and a ''Physiol-noGHG'' simulation where physiological changes occur as a result of prescribed CO{sub 2} emissions, but where CO{sub 2}-induced greenhouse warming is not included. In our simulations, CO{sub 2}-fertilization produces warming; we obtain an annual- and global-mean warming of about 0.65 K (and land-only warming of 1.4 K) after 430 years. This century-scale warming is mostly due to a decreased surface albedo associated with the expansion of the Northern Hemisphere boreal forests. On decadal time scales, the CO{sub 2} uptake by afforestation should produce a cooling effect that exceeds this albedo-based warming; but if the forests remain in place, the CO{sub 2}-enhanced-greenhouse effect would diminish as the ocean equilibrates with the atmosphere, whereas the albedo effect would persist. Thus, on century time scales, there is the prospect for net warming from CO{sub 2}-fertilization of the land biosphere. Further study is needed to confirm and better quantify our results.

Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Mirin, A; Wickett, M; Delire, C; Phillips, T J

2006-04-26T23:59:59.000Z

110

Circular Retribution: The Effects of Climate Change on U .S. and Global Economy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of global climate change on U.S. agriculture. JournalClimate Change and the Global Harvest: Potential Impacts of the Greenhouse Effect on Agriculture. Ēensuing change in climate patterns, are making agriculture a

Prescher, Hannes

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

111

Climate Forcings and Climate Sensitivities Diagnosed from Coupled Climate Model Integrations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A simple technique is proposed for calculating global mean climate forcing from transient integrations of coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). This 'climate forcing' differs from the conventionally defined radiative forcing as it includes semi-direct effects that account for certain short timescale responses in the troposphere. Firstly, we calculate a climate feedback term from reported values of 2 x CO{sub 2} radiative forcing and surface temperature time series from 70-year simulations by twenty AOGCMs. In these simulations carbon dioxide is increased by 1%/year. The derived climate feedback agrees well with values that we diagnose from equilibrium climate change experiments of slab-ocean versions of the same models. These climate feedback terms are associated with the fast, quasi-linear response of lapse rate, clouds, water vapor and albedo to global surface temperature changes. The importance of the feedbacks is gauged by their impact on the radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. We find partial compensation between longwave and shortwave feedback terms that lessens the inter-model differences in the equilibrium climate sensitivity. There is also some indication that the AOGCMs overestimate the strength of the positive longwave feedback. These feedback terms are then used to infer the shortwave and longwave time series of climate forcing in 20th and 21st Century simulations in the AOGCMs. We validate the technique using conventionally calculated forcing time series from four AOGCMs. In these AOGCMs the shortwave and longwave climate forcings we diagnose agree with the conventional forcing time series within {approx}10%. The shortwave forcing time series exhibit order of magnitude variations between the AOGCMs, differences likely related to how both natural forcings and/or anthropogenic aerosol effects are included. There are also factor of two differences in the longwave climate forcing time series, which may indicate problems with the modeling of well-mixed-greenhouse-gas changes. The simple diagnoses we present provide an important and useful first step for understanding differences in AOGCM integrations, indicating that some of the differences in model projections can be attributed to different prescribed climate forcing, even for so-called standard climate change scenarios.

Forster, P M A F; Taylor, K E

2006-07-25T23:59:59.000Z

112

Ensemble climate predictions using climate models and observational constraints  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

REVIEW Ensemble climate predictions using climate models and observational constraints BY PETER A. STOTT 1,* AND CHRIS E. FOREST 2 1 Hadley Centre for Climate Change (Reading Unit), Meteorology Building for constraining climate predictions based on observations of past climate change. The first uses large ensembles

113

Global Climate Projections Coordinating Lead Authors  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(UK), G.-K. Plattner (Switzerland), J. Räisänen (Finland), A. Rinke (Germany), E. Roeckner (Germany in the 21st Century ............. 764 10.3.3 Changes in Ocean/Ice and High-Latitude Climate

Olver, Peter

114

Modeling Water Resource Systems under Climate Change: IGSM-WRS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Through the integration of a Water Resource System (WRS) component, the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework has been enhanced to study the effects of climate change on managed water-resource systems. ...

Strzepek, K.

115

Global Climate Change Earth, 1972, Apollo 17,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

;Projected Future Temperature · 2-11.5 deg F projected increase in global average · more intense, more frequent, and longer-lasting heat waves. #12;Projected Future Precipitation · Increase in global average infrared energy as a radiatively active constituent in Earth's atmosphere. Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish

Hansen, Andrew J.

116

The effects of small perturbations in climate models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

constant shown with the integrated autocorrelation for degree n ? 2. . . . . . . . . , . . CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION The subject of global climate change is a topic of growing importance in the world today. One of the most crucial aspects of the climate..., perpendicular to the line joining the earth and sun averaged through the year. The sensitivity of a. climate model to changes in the solar constant is generally the first quantity calculated to compare one model with another (North et al. , 1983a). This study...

Bell, Robert Eugene

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Land use change is a complex response to changing environmental and socioeconomic systems. Historical drivers of land use change include changes in the natural resource availability of a region, changes in economic conditions for production of certain products and changing policies. Most recently, introduction of policy incentives for biofuel production have influenced land use change in the US Midwest, leading to concerns that bioenergy production systems may compete with food production and land conservation. Here we explore how land use may be impacted by future climate mitigation measures by nesting a high resolution agricultural model (EPIC Ė Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) for the US Midwest within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM Ė Global Change Assessment Model). This approach is designed to provide greater spatial resolution and detailed agricultural practice information by focusing on the climate mitigation potential of agriculture and land use in a specific region, while retaining the global economic context necessary to understand the far ranging effects of climate mitigation targets. We find that until the simulated carbon prices are very high, the US Midwest has a comparative advantage in producing traditional food and feed crops over bioenergy crops. Overall, the model responds to multiple pressures by adopting a mix of future responses. We also find that the GCAM model is capable of simulations at multiple spatial scales and agricultural technology resolution, which provides the capability to examine regional response to global policy and economic conditions in the context of climate mitigation.

Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page; Zhang, Xuesong; Bandaru, Varaprasad; West, Tristram O.; Wise, Marshall A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Calvin, Katherine V.

2014-01-19T23:59:59.000Z

118

Hydrologic Response to Climate Variability, Climate Change, and Climate Extreme in the U.S.: Climate Model Evaluation and Projections  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Water resources are sensitive to climate variability and change; predictions of seasonal to interannual climate variations and projections of long-term climate trends can provide significant values in managing water resources. This study examines the control (1975Ė1995) and future (1995Ė2100) climate simulated by a global climate model (GCM) and a regional climate simulation driven by the GCM control simulation for the U.S. Comparison of the regional climate simulation with observations across 13 subregions showed that the simulation captured the seasonality and the distributions of precipitation rate quite well. The GCM control and climate change simulations showed that, as a result of a 1% increase in greenhouse gas concentrations per year, there will be a warming of 2Ė3įC across the U.S. from 2000 to 2100. Although precipitation is not projected to change during this century, the warming trend will increase evapotranspiration to reduce annual basin mean runoff over five subregions along the coastal and south-central U.S.

Leung, Lai R.; Qian, Yun

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

119

Tax distortions and global climate policy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We consider the efficiency implications of policies to reduce global carbon emissions in a world with pre-existing tax distortions. We first show that the weak double dividend, the proposition that the welfare improvement ...

Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Metcalf, Gilbert E.; Reilly, John M.

120

Linking local air pollution to global chemistry and climate  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We have incorporated a reduced-form urban air chemistry model in MIT's 2D-LO coupled chemistry-climate model. The computationally efficient reduced-form urban model is derived from the California Institute of Technology-Carnegie ...

Mayer, Monika.; Wang, Chien.; Webster, Mort David.; Prinn, Ronald G.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Emissions Pricing to Stabilize Global Climate  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) and the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR). These two centers bridge many key areas an interdisciplinary group from two established research centers at MIT: the Center for Global Change Science (CGCS that are most relevant to economic, social, and environmental effects. In turn, the greenhouse gas

122

Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land use change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The sensitivity of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentration to changes in climate and emissions is investigated using a coupled global atmosphere-land model driven by the year 2100 IPCC A1B scenario predictions. The ...

Heald, C. L.; Henze, D. K.; Horowitz, L. W.; Feddema, Johannes J.; Lamarque, J. F.; Guenther, A.; Hess, P. G.; Vitt, F.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Goldstein, A. H.; Fung, I.

2008-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

123

PHOTOSYNTHESIS AND GLOBAL CHANGE CAN CLIMATE DRIVEN CHANGES IN  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PHOTOSYNTHESIS AND GLOBAL CHANGE CAN CLIMATE DRIVEN CHANGES IN PHOTOSYNTHESIS BE USED TO PREDICT in photosynthesis, and thus substrate supply, influence the rate of ecosystem respiration (Re). Further- more in photosynthesis might result in concomitant changes in both the rate, and temperature-sensitivity, of Re. Re

Barron-Gafford, Greg

124

Accounting for global-mean warming and scaling uncertainties in climate change impact studies Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11(3), 12071226, 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Accounting for global-mean warming and scaling uncertainties in climate change impact studies 1207(s) 2007. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Accounting for global-mean warming from a few regional climate model runs are scaled, based on different global-mean warming projections

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

125

Climate Impact of Transportation A Model Comparison  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO2 emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and CO2 emissions of five different global transport models using harmonized input assumptions on income and population. For four models we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax. All models project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology is important for limiting energy consumption and CO2 emissions, but quite radical changes in the technology mix are required to stabilize or reverse the trend. While all models project liquid fossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax of US$200/tCO2 in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate room for improvement in modeling and empirical description of the transport system.

Girod, Bastien; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Grahn, Maria; Kitous, Alban; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

126

An Urban Parameterization for a Global Climate Model. Part II: Sensitivity to Input Parameters and the Simulated Urban Heat Island in Offline Simulations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

tempera- tures of urban systems as impervious fraction increases. In general, these findings are in agreement with those observed for real urban ecosystems. Thus, the model appears to be a useful tool for examining the nature of the urban climate within... of the physical processes controlling energy and water fluxes and 2) the charac- terization of urban morphology and urban materials with respect to aerodynamic, radiative, and heat trans- fer properties (e.g., Terjung and OíRourke 1980; Arn- field 2000; Masson...

Oleson, Keith W.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Feddema, Johannes J.; Vertenstein, M.

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

Sandia National Laboratories: Global Climate & Energy  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive SolarEducation Programs:CRFProvideAidsCanal, Yakima,Geothermal SandiaGlobal

128

Sandia National Laboratories: Global Climate & Energy  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -theErik Spoerke SSLS Exhibit at ExploraGlobal Sandia Co-Hosts

129

Sandia National Laboratories: Global Climate & Energy  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -theErik Spoerke SSLS Exhibit at ExploraGlobal Sandia Co-HostsThe Energy-Water

130

Sandia National Laboratories: Global Climate & Energy  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -theErik Spoerke SSLS Exhibit at ExploraGlobal Sandia Co-HostsThe

131

February 6, 2001 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

February 6, 2001 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE Bruce A McCarl, Texas A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2. Agriculture and Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2.1 Climate Change Effects on Agricultural Productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2

McCarl, Bruce A.

132

Climate Mitigation Policy Implications for Global Irrigation Water Demand  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Energy, water and land are scarce resources, critical to humans. Developments in each affect the availability and cost of the others, and consequently human prosperity. Measures to limit greenhouse gas concentrations will inevitably exact dramatic changes on energy and land systems and in turn alter the character, magnitude and geographic distribution of human claims on water resources. We employ the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model to explore the interactions of energy, land and water systems in the context of alternative policies to limit climate change to three alternative levels: 2.5 Wm-2 (445 ppm CO2-e), 3.5 Wm-2 (535 ppm CO2-e) and 4.5 Wm-2 (645 ppm CO2-e). We explore the effects of alternative land-use emissions mitigation policy optionsóone which values terrestrial carbon emissions equally with fossil fuel and industrial emissions, and an alternative which places no penalty on land-use change emissions. We find that increasing populations and economic growth could be anticipated to lead to increased demand for water for agricultural systems (+200%), even in the absence of climate change. In general policies to mitigate climate change will increase agricultural demands for water, regardless of whether or not terrestrial carbon is valued or not. Burgeoning demands for water are driven by the demand for bioenergy in response to emissions mitigation policies. We also find that the policy matters. Increases in the demand for water when terrestrial carbon emissions go un-prices are vastly larger than when terrestrial system carbon emissions are prices at the same rate as fossil fuel and industrial emissions. Our estimates for increased water demands when terrestrial carbon systems go un-priced are larger than earlier studies. We find that the deployment of improved irrigation delivery systems could mitigate some of the increase in water demands, but cannot reverse the increases in water demands when terrestrial carbon emissions go un-priced. Finally we estimates that the geospatial pattern of water demands could stress some parts of the world, e.g. China, India and other countries in south and east Asia, earlier and more intensely than in other parts of the world, e.g. North America.

Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Wise, Marshall A.

2013-08-22T23:59:59.000Z

133

Galactic Cosmic Rays and Insolation are the Main Drivers of Global Climate of the Earth  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An energy-balance model of global climate, which takes into account a nontrivial role of galactic cosmic rays, is developed. The model is described by the fold catastrophe equation relative to increment of temperature, where galactic cosmic rays and insolation are control parameters. The comparison of the results of a computer simulation of time-dependent solution of the presented model and oxygen isotope records of deep-sea core V28-238 over the past 730 kyr are presented. The climate evolution in future 100 kyr is also predicted.

V. D. Rusov; I. V. Radin; A. V. Glushkov; V. N. Vaschenko; V. N. Pavlovich; T. N. Zelentsova; O. T. Mihalys; V. A. Tarasov; A. Kolos

2005-06-22T23:59:59.000Z

134

Increase of Carbon Cycle Feedback with Climate Sensitivity: Results from a coupled Climate and Carbon Cycle Model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Coupled climate and carbon cycle modeling studies have shown that the feedback between global warming and the carbon cycle, in particular the terrestrial carbon cycle, could accelerate climate change and result in larger warming. In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of this feedback for year-2100 global warming in the range of 0 K to 8 K. Differing climate sensitivities to increased CO{sub 2} content are imposed on the carbon cycle models for the same emissions. Emissions from the SRES A2 scenario are used. We use a fully-coupled climate and carbon cycle model, the INtegrated Climate and CArbon model (INCCA) the NCAR/DOE Parallel Coupled Model coupled to the IBIS terrestrial biosphere model and a modified-OCMIP ocean biogeochemistry model. In our model, for scenarios with year-2100 global warming increasing from 0 to 8 K, land uptake decreases from 47% to 29% of total CO{sub 2} emissions. Due to competing effects, ocean uptake (16%) shows almost no change at all. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration increases were 48% higher in the run with 8 K global climate warming than in the case with no warming. Our results indicate that carbon cycle amplification of climate warming will be greater if there is higher climate sensitivity to increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} content; the carbon cycle feedback factor increases from 1.13 to 1.48 when global warming increases from 3.2 to 8 K.

Govindasamy, B; Thompson, S; Mirin, A; Wickett, M; Caldeira, K; Delire, C

2004-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

135

Global Climate Change Adaptation Priorities for Biodiversity and Food Security  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Global Climate Change Adaptation Priorities for Biodiversity and Food Security Lee Hannah 1,2* , Makihiko Ikegami 3 , David G. Hole 1,4 , Changwan Seo 5 , Stuart H. M. Butchart 6 , A. Townsend Peterson 7 , Patrick R. Roehrdanz 2 1 The Betty...72590. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0072590 Editor: Alex J Cannon, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Canada Received November 13, 2012; Accepted July 14, 2013; Published August 21, 2013 Copyright: © 2013 Hannah et al. This is an open-access article...

Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G.; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Peterson, A. Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick

2013-08-21T23:59:59.000Z

136

Global climate change and the mitigation challenge  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations, very likely the primary cause of the 0.8{sup o}C warming the Earth has experienced since the Industrial Revolution. With industrial activity and population expected to increase for the rest of the century, large increases in greenhouse gas emissions are projected, with substantial global additional warming predicted. This paper examines forces driving CO{sub 2} emissions, a concise sector-by-sector summary of mitigation options, and research and development (R&D) priorities. To constrain warming to below approximately 2.5{sup o}C in 2100, the recent annual 3% CO{sub 2} emission growth rate needs to transform rapidly to an annual decrease rate of from 1 to 3% for decades. Furthermore, the current generation of energy generation and end-use technologies are capable of achieving less than half of the emission reduction needed for such a major mitigation program. New technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate, especially for the key power generation and transportation sectors. Current energy technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) programs fall far short of what is required. 20 refs., 18 figs., 4 tabs.

Frank Princiotta [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States). Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

137

perspective: The responses of tropical forest species to global climate change: acclimate, adapt, migrate, or go extinct?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

maps. †Nature†Climate†Change,†2,†182Ė185. † Bacles,†S. † (1998)† Globalclimate† change† and† tropical† forest†2011)†Impacts† of† climate† change† on† the† world's† most†

Feeley, Kenneth J; Rehm, Evan M; Machovina, Brian

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

138

Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth‚??s climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

Raymond S. Bradley; Henry F. Diaz

2010-12-14T23:59:59.000Z

139

Regional Climate Model Projections for the State of Washington  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Global climate models do not have sufficient spatial resolution to represent the atmospheric and land surface processes that determine the unique regional heterogeneity of the climate of the State of Washington. If future large-scale weather patterns interact differently with the local terrain and coastlines than current weather patterns, local changes in temperature and precipitation could be quite different from the coarse-scale changes projected by global models. Regional climate models explicitly simulate the interactions between the large-scale weather patterns simulated by a global model and the local terrain. We have performed two 100-year climate simulations using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). One simulation is forced by the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) and the second is forced by a simulation of the Max Plank Institute, Hamburg, global model (ECHAM5). The mesoscale simulations produce regional changes in snow cover, cloudiness, and circulation patterns associated with interactions between the large-scale climate change and the regional topography and land-water contrasts. These changes substantially alter the temperature and precipitation trends over the region relative to the global model result or statistical downscaling. To illustrate this effect, we analyze the changes from the current climate (1970-1999) to the mid 21st century (2030-2059). Changes in seasonal-mean temperature, precipitation, and snowpack are presented. Several climatological indices of extreme daily weather are also presented: precipitation intensity, fraction of precipitation occurring in extreme daily events, heat wave frequency, growing season length, and frequency of warm nights. Despite somewhat different changes in seasonal precipitation and temperature from the two regional simulations, consistent results for changes in snowpack and extreme precipitation are found in both simulations.

Salathe, E.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun; Zhang, Yongxin

2010-05-05T23:59:59.000Z

140

Global simulations of smoke from Kuwaiti oil fires and possible effects on climate  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Los Alamos Global Climate Model has bee used to simulate the global evolution of the Kuwaiti oil fire smoke and its potential effects on the climate. The initial simulations were done shortly before the fires were lit in January 1991. They indicated that such an event would not result in a Mini Nuclear Winter'' as some people were suggesting. Further simulations during the year suggested that the smoke could be responsible for subtle regional climate changes in the spring such as a 5 degree centigrade decrease in the surface temperature in Kuwait, a 10% decrease in precipitation in Saudi Arabia and a 10% increase in precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau region. These results are in qualitative agreement with the observations this year.

Glatzmaier, G.A.; Malone, R.C.; Kao, C.Y.J.

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Global simulations of smoke from Kuwaiti oil fires and possible effects on climate  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Los Alamos Global Climate Model has bee used to simulate the global evolution of the Kuwaiti oil fire smoke and its potential effects on the climate. The initial simulations were done shortly before the fires were lit in January 1991. They indicated that such an event would not result in a ``Mini Nuclear Winter`` as some people were suggesting. Further simulations during the year suggested that the smoke could be responsible for subtle regional climate changes in the spring such as a 5 degree centigrade decrease in the surface temperature in Kuwait, a 10% decrease in precipitation in Saudi Arabia and a 10% increase in precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau region. These results are in qualitative agreement with the observations this year.

Glatzmaier, G.A.; Malone, R.C.; Kao, C.Y.J.

1991-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

142

Effects of 20002050 changes in climate and emissions on global tropospheric ozone and the policy-relevant background surface ozone  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) project major changes in anthro- pogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precur- sors over the 2Effects of 2000­2050 changes in climate and emissions on global tropospheric ozone and the policy; published 27 September 2008. [1] We use a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) driven by a general

Mickley, Loretta J.

143

Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on a grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.

Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

144

Structural Design Feasibility Study for the Global Climate Experiment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Neon, Inc. is proposing to establish a Global Change Experiment (GCE) Facility to increase our understanding of how ecological systems differ in their vulnerability to changes in climate and other relevant global change drivers, as well as provide the mechanistic basis for forecasting ecological change in the future. The experimental design was initially envisioned to consist of two complementary components; (A) a multi-factor experiment manipulating CO{sub 2}, temperature and water availability and (B) a water balance experiment. As the design analysis and cost estimates progressed, it became clear that (1) the technical difficulties of obtaining tight temperature control and maintaining elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels within an enclosure were greater than had been expected and (2) the envisioned study would not fit into the expected budget envelope if this was done in a partially or completely enclosed structure. After discussions between NEON management, the GCE science team, and Keith Lewin, NEON, Inc. requested Keith Lewin to expand the scope of this design study to include open-field exposure systems. In order to develop the GCE design to the point where it can be presented within a proposal for funding, a feasibility study of climate manipulation structures must be conducted to determine design approaches and rough cost estimates, and to identify advantages and disadvantages of these approaches including the associated experimental artifacts. NEON, Inc requested this design study in order to develop concepts for the climate manipulation structures to support the NEON Global Climate Experiment. This study summarizes the design concepts considered for constructing and operating the GCE Facility and their associated construction, maintenance and operations costs. Comparisons and comments about experimental artifacts, construction challenges and operational uncertainties are provided to assist in selecting the final facility design. The overall goal of this report is to provide a cost and technological basis for selection of the appropriate GCE Facility design.

Lewin,K.F.; Nagy, J.

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

A climate model intercomparison at the dynamics level Karsten Steinhaeuser Anastasios A. Tsonis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A climate model intercomparison at the dynamics level Karsten Steinhaeuser · Anastasios A. Tsonis Until now, climate model intercomparison has focused primarily on annual and global averages of various adopted a new approach based on climate networks. We have considered 28 pre-industrial control runs

Minnesota, University of

146

Global Biogeochemistry Models and Global Carbon Cycle Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The climate modeling community has long envisioned an evolution from physical climate models to ''earth system'' models that include the effects of biology and chemistry, particularly those processes related to the global carbon cycle. The widely reproduced Box 3, Figure 1 from the 2001 IPCC Scientific Assessment schematically describes that evolution. The community generally accepts the premise that understanding and predicting global and regional climate change requires the inclusion of carbon cycle processes in models to fully simulate the feedbacks between the climate system and the carbon cycle. Moreover, models will ultimately be employed to predict atmospheric concentrations of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases as a function of anthropogenic and natural processes, such as industrial emissions, terrestrial carbon fixation, sequestration, land use patterns, etc. Nevertheless, the development of coupled climate-carbon models with demonstrable quantitative skill will require a significant amount of effort and time to understand and validate their behavior at both the process level and as integrated systems. It is important to consider objectively whether the currently proposed strategies to develop and validate earth system models are optimal, or even sufficient, and whether alternative strategies should be pursued. Carbon-climate models are going to be complex, with the carbon cycle strongly interacting with many other components. Off-line process validation will be insufficient. As was found in coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs, feedbacks between model components can amplify small errors and uncertainties in one process to produce large biases in the simulated climate. The persistent tropical western Pacific Ocean ''double ITCZ'' and upper troposphere ''cold pole'' problems are examples. Finding and fixing similar types of problems in coupled carbon-climate models especially will be difficult, given the lack of observations required for diagnosis and validation of biogeochemical processes.

Covey, C; Caldeira, K; Guilderson, T; Cameron-Smith, P; Govindasamy, B; Swanston, C; Wickett, M; Mirin, A; Bader, D

2005-05-27T23:59:59.000Z

147

The China-in-Global Energy Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The China-in-Global Energy Model (C-GEM) is a global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model that captures the interaction of production, consumption and trade among multiple global regions and sectors Ė including five ...

Qi, T.

148

Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a ...

Webster, Mort David.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Mayer, Monika.; Reilly, John M.; Harnisch, Jochen.; Hyman, Robert C.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Wang, Chien.

149

Same Science, Differing Policies; The Saga of Global Climate Change Eugene B. Skolnikoff *  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, and the E.U. itself. The possibility of global warming that raises this fear of unacceptable levels of science. The global warming that it is feared may lead to climate change is not yet observable in everydaySame Science, Differing Policies; The Saga of Global Climate Change Eugene B. Skolnikoff

150

DO GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE REPRESENT A SERIOUS THREAT TO OUR WELFARE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

DO GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE REPRESENT A SERIOUS THREAT TO OUR WELFARE AND ENVIRONMENT? By Michael E. Mann I. Introduction The subjects of "global warming" and "climate change" have become parts of both the popular lexicon and the public discourse. Discussions of global warming often evoke passionate

151

LETTER doi:10.1038/nature09407 Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

LETTER doi:10.1038/nature09407 Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming Michael E. Dillon and projected climate warming2,13,14 . Global warming is probably having profound and diverse effects phenology3,4 , community interactions5 , genetics3,6 and extinctions7 have been attributed to recent global

Huey, Raymond B.

152

Increased Climate Variability Is More Visible Than Global Warming: A General  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Increased Climate Variability Is More Visible Than Global Warming: A General System@utep.edu Abstract While global warming is a statistically confirmed long-term phenomenon, its most visible than the global warming itself. 1 Formulation of the Problem What is global warming. The term "global

Kreinovich, Vladik

153

Preliminary global assessment of terrestrial biodiversity consequences of sea level rise mediated by climate change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Considerable attention has focused on the climatic effects of global climate change on biodiversity, but few analyses and no broad assessments have evaluated the effects of sea level rise on biodiversity. Taking advantage of new maps of marine...

Menon, Shaily; Soberó n, Jorge; Li, Xingong; Peterson, A. Townsend

2010-02-25T23:59:59.000Z

154

Institutionalizing Unsustainability: The Paradox of Global Climate Governance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Climate Change Convention and Developing Countries: Fromand Climate Change: Perspectives from Developing Countries.developing countries by shift- ing the governance of climate change

Stevenson, Hayley

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

3, 11331166, 2007 Glacier-climate model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the Past Reconstructing glacier-based climates of LGM Europe and Russia ­ Part 1: Numerical modelling for climate change the LGM is a popular time period for testing the ability of GCMs to simulate past cli-25CPD 3, 1133­1166, 2007 Glacier-climate model for recosntructing palaeoclimates R. Allen et al

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

156

A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Climate models are the foundation for understanding and projecting climate and climate-related changes and are thus critical tools for supporting climate-related decision making. This study developed a holistic strategy for improving the nation‚??s capability to accurately simulate climate and related Earth system changes on decadal to centennial timescales. The committee‚??s report is a high level analysis, providing a strategic framework to guide progress in the nation‚??s climate modeling enterprise over the next 10-20 years. This study was supported by DOE, NSF, NASA, NOAA, and the intelligence community.

Dunlea, Edward; Elfring, Chris

2012-12-04T23:59:59.000Z

157

Extreme events in solutions of hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic climate models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the assumptions made in applying them to operational numerical weather prediction (NWP), climate modelling-hydrostatic (NPE) primitive equations that have been used extensively in numerical weather prediction and climate weather, climate and global ocean circulation predictions for many decades. The HPE govern incompressible

Gibbon, J. D.

158

Climate effects of anthropogenic sulfate: Simulations from a coupled chemistry/climate model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper, we use a more comprehensive approach by coupling a climate model with a 3-D global chemistry model to investigate the forcing by anthropogenic aerosol sulfate. The chemistry model treats the global-scale transport, transformation, and removal of SO{sub 2}, DMS and H{sub 2}SO{sub 4} species in the atmosphere. The mass concentration of anthropogenic sulfate from fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning is calculated in the chemistry model and provided to the climate model where it affects the shortwave radiation. We also investigate the effect, with cloud nucleation parameterized in terms of local aerosol number, sulfate mass concentration and updraft velocity. Our simulations indicate that anthropogenic sulfate may result in important increases in reflected solar radiation, which would mask locally the radiative forcing from increased greenhouse gases. Uncertainties in these results will be discussed.

Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E.; Taylor, K.E.; Walton, J.J.

1993-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

159

Questions of bias in climate models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The recent work by Shindell usefully contributes to the debate over estimating climate sensitivity by highlighting an important aspect of the climate system: that climate forcings that occur over land result in a more rapid temperature response than forcings that are distributed more uniformly over the globe. While, as noted in this work, simple climate models may be biased by assuming the same temperature response for all forcing agents, the implication that the MAGICC model is biased in this way is not correct.

Smith, Steven J.; Wigley, Tom M.; Meinshausen, Malte; Rogelj, Joeri

2014-08-27T23:59:59.000Z

160

Pace of shifts in climate regions increases with global temperature  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Human-induced climate change causes significant changes in local climates, which in turn lead to changes in regional climate zones. Large shifts in the world distribution of KŲppenĖGeiger climate classifications by the end ...

Mahlstein, Irina

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Modeling Climate Dynamically James Walsh and Richard McGehee  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to tropical latitudes, leaving a narrow strip of open ocean water about the equator? Can mathematical models and present day evidence. Global climate is determined by the radiation balance of the planet. The Earth warms through the absorption of incoming solar radiation (or insolation). Due to the shortwave nature

Wilmer, Elizabeth

162

Climate Systems and Climate Change Is Climate Change Real?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Chapter 10 Climate Systems and Climate Change #12;Is Climate Change Real? 1980 1898 2005 2003 #12;Arctic Sea Ice Changes #12;Observed Global Surface Air Temperature #12;! Current climate: weather station data, remote sensing data, numerical modeling using General Circulation Models (GCM) ! Past climate

Pan, Feifei

163

Estimating future global per capita water availability based on changes in climate and population  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Human populations are profoundly affected by water stress, or the lack of sufficient per capita available freshwater. Water stress can result from overuse of available freshwater resources or from a reduction in the amount of available water due to decreases in rainfall and stored water supplies. Analyzing the interrelationship between human populations and water availability is complicated by the uncertainties associated with climate change projections and population projections. We present a simple methodology developed to integrate disparate climate and population data sources and develop first-order per capita water availability projections at the global scale. Simulations from the coupled land-ocean-atmosphere Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) forced with a range of hypothetical greenhouse gas emissions scenarios are used to project grid-based changes in precipitation minus evapotranspiration as proxies for changes in runoff, or fresh water supply. Population growth changes according to several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) storylines are used as proxies for changes in fresh water demand by 2025, 2050 and 2100. These freshwater supply and demand projections are then combined to yield estimates of per capita water availability aggregated by watershed and political unit. Results suggest that important insights might be extracted from the use of the process developed here, notably including the identification of the globe s most vulnerable regions in need of more detailed analysis and the relative importance of population growth versus climate change in in altering future freshwater supplies. However, these are only exemplary insights and, as such, could be considered hypotheses that should be rigorously tested with multiple climate models, multiple observational climate datasets, and more comprehensive population change storylines.

Parish, Esther S [ORNL; Kodra, Evan [Northeastern University; Ganguly, Auroop R [Northeastern University; Steinhaeuser, Karsten [University of Minnesota

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

Climatic Impact of Global-Scale Deforestation: Radiative versus Nonradiative Processes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climatic Impact of Global-Scale Deforestation: Radiative versus Nonradiative Processes EDOUARD L­ocean­atmosphere GCM is used to explore the biogeophysical impact of large-scale deforestation on surface climate that the surface albedo increase owing to deforestation has a cooling effect of 21.36 K globally. On the other hand

Haak, Hein

165

Can ozone depletion and global warming interact to produce rapid climate change?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Can ozone depletion and global warming interact to produce rapid climate change? Dennis L. Hartmann of Climate Change (IPCC) assess- ment of the status of global warming, which reported that winter stratospheric ozone depletion and greenhouse warming are possible. These interactions may be responsible

Limpasuvan, Varavut

166

Testing for the Possible Influence of Unknown Climate Forcings upon Global Temperature Increases from 1950-2000  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Global-scale variations in the climate system over the last half of the twentieth century, including long-term increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures, are consistent with concurrent human-induced emissions of radiatively active gases and aerosols. However, such consistency does not preclude the possible influence of other forcing agents, including internal modes of climate variability or unaccounted for aerosol effects. To test whether other unknown forcing agents may have contributed to multidecadal increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures from 1950 to 2000, data pertaining to observed changes in global-scale sea surface temperatures and observed changes in radiatively active atmospheric constituents are incorporated into numerical global climate models. Results indicate that the radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trends in sea surface temperaturesóand global-mean near-surface temperaturesóis provided predominantly by known changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Further, results indicate that less than 10% of the long-term historical increase in global-mean near-surface temperatures over the last half of the twentieth century could have been the result of internal climate variability. In addition, they indicate that less than 25%of the total radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trend in global-mean near-surface temperatures could have been provided by changes in net radiative forcing from unknown sources (either positive or negative). These results, which are derived from simple energy balance requirements, emphasize the important role humans have played in modifying the global climate over the last half of the twentieth century.

Anderson, Bruce T.; Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A.; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Cherchi, Annalisa

2012-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

167

Global climate change and the scientific consensus Stephen Mulkey, PhD  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Global climate change and the scientific consensus Stephen Mulkey, PhD Director of Research scientists. As scientists, our job is to present the data on climate change and to propose plausible recreate the Earth's climate in a laboratory bottle and change its composition to see what happens. Instead

Watson, Craig A.

168

Climate change and the socioeconomics of global food production: A quantitative analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Climate change and the socioeconomics of global food production: A quantitative analysis of how, Andrew J. Dougill and Piers M. Forster August 2010 Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper No. 29 #12;2 The Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) was established

Rambaut, Andrew

169

Global climate change is currently affecting many ecological systems and may have large impacts on agri-  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

be crucial in the tropics, where most agriculture is in rain-fed systems and climate change has a potentially of Biological Sciences. Synergies between Agricultural Intensification and Climate Change Could CreateArticles Global climate change is currently affecting many ecological systems and may have large

170

GLOBAL CHANGE ECOLOGY -ORIGINAL PAPER Buffered climate change effects in a Mediterranean pine species  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

GLOBAL CHANGE ECOLOGY - ORIGINAL PAPER Buffered climate change effects in a Mediterranean pine Abstract Within-range effects of climatic change on tree growth at the sub-regional scale remain poorly- growth responses to climate change, the role of drought becomes even more complex in shaping communities

Herrera, Carlos M.

171

Physically-Based Global Downscaling: Climate Change Projections for a Full Century  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A global atmosphere/land model with an embedded subgrid orography scheme is used to simulate the period 1977-2100 using ocean surface conditions and radiative constituent concentrations for a climate change scenario. Climate variables simulated for multiple elevation classes are mapping according to the high-resolution of topography in ten regions with complex terrain. Analysis of changes in the simulated climate lead to the following conclusions. Changes in precipitation vary widely, with precipitation increasing more with increasing altitude in some region, decreasing more with altitude in others, and changing little in still others. In some regions the sign of the precipitation change depends on surface elevation. Changes in surface air temperature are rather uniform, with at most a two-fold difference between the largest and smallest changes within a region. In most cases the warming increases with altitude. Changes in snow water are highly dependent on altitude. Absolute changes usually increase with altitude, while relative changes decrease. In places where snow accumulates, an artificial upper bound on snow water limits the sensitivity of snow water to climate change considerably. The simulated impact of climate change on regional mean snow water varies widely, with little impact in regions in which the upper bound on snow water is the dominant snow water sink, moderate impact in regions with a mixture of seasonal and permanent snow, and profound impacts on regions with little permanent snow.

Ghan, Steven J.; Shippert, Timothy R.

2006-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

172

Physically-Based Global Downscaling Climate Change Projections for a Full Century  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A global atmosphere/land model with an embedded subgrid orography scheme is used to simulate the period 1977-2100 using ocean surface conditions and radiative constituent concentrations for a climate change scenario. Climate variables simulated for multiple elevation classes are mapping according to a high-resolution elevation dataset in ten regions with complex terrain. Analysis of changes in the simulated climate leads to the following conclusions. Changes in precipitation vary widely, with precipitation increasing more with increasing altitude in some region, decreasing more with altitude in others, and changing little in still others. In some regions the sign of the precipitation change depends on surface elevation. Changes in surface air temperature are rather uniform, with at most a two-fold difference between the largest and smallest changes within a region; in most cases the warming increases with altitude. Changes in snow water are highly dependent on altitude. Absolute changes usually increase with altitude, while relative changes decrease. In places where snow accumulates, an artificial upper bound on snow water limits the sensitivity of snow water to climate change considerably. The simulated impact of climate change on regional mean snow water varies widely, with little impact in regions in which the upper bound on snow water is the dominant snow water sink, moderate impact in regions with a mixture of seasonal and permanent snow, and profound impacts on regions with little permanent snow.

Ghan, Steven J.; Shippert, Timothy R.

2005-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

173

Seasonal Climate Extremes : Mechanism, Predictability and Responses to Global Warming.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Climate extremes are rarely occurring natural phenomena in the climate system. They often pose one of the greatest environmental threats to human and natural systems.Ö (more)

Shongwe, M.E.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

Modeling Water, Climate, Agriculture, and the Economy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Describes two models used in the integrated modeling framework designed to study water, climate, agriculture and the economy in Pakistan's Indus Basin: (1) the Indus Basin Model Revised (IBMR-1012), a hydro-economic ...

Yu, Winston

175

Global Climate Change and the Transportation Sector: An Update on Issues and Mitigation Options  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

It is clear from numerous energy/economic modeling exercises that addressing the challenges posed by global climate change will eventually require the active participation of all industrial sectors and all consumers on the planet. Yet, these and similar modeling exercises indicate that large stationary CO2 point sources (e.g., refineries and fossil-fired electric power plants) are often the first targets considered for serious CO2 emissions mitigation. Without participation of all sectors of the global economy, however, the challenges of climate change mitigation will not be met. Because of its operating characteristics, price structure, dependence on virtually one energy source (oil), enormous installed infrastructure, and limited technology alternatives, at least in the near-term, the transportation sector will likely represent a particularly difficult challenge for CO2 emissions mitigation. Our research shows that climate change induced price signals (i.e., putting a price on carbon that is emitted to the atmosphere) are in the near term insufficient to drive fundamental shifts in demand for energy services or to transform the way these services are provided in the transportation sector. We believe that a technological revolution will be necessary to accomplish the significant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. This paper presents an update of ongoing research into a variety of technological options that exist for decarbonizing the transportation sector and the various tradeoffs among them.

Geffen, CA; Dooley, JJ; Kim, SH

2003-08-24T23:59:59.000Z

176

Model-data Fusion Approaches for Retrospective and Predictive Assessment of the Pan-Arctic Scale Permafrost Carbon Feedback to Global Climate  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

representation of the Arctic system carbon cycle in Earth System Modeling frameworks. This proposed study of permafrost carbon processes in terrestrial biogeochemistry models, to operate within coupled Earth system modeling frameworks. PROJECT SIGNIFICANCE This work will provide a critical bridge between the abundant

177

Integrated Assessment of Global Water Scarcity over the 21st Century under Multiple Climate Change Mitigation Policies  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model Ė namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) Ė is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and a global population of 14 billion by 2095, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demand for water exceeds the amount of water availability in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 20% and 27% of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change.

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

178

Climate Modeling using High-Performance Computing  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Center for Applied Scientific Computing (CASC) and the LLNL Climate and Carbon Science Group of Energy and Environment (E and E) are working together to improve predictions of future climate by applying the best available computational methods and computer resources to this problem. Over the last decade, researchers at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) have developed a number of climate models that provide state-of-the-art simulations on a wide variety of massively parallel computers. We are now developing and applying a second generation of high-performance climate models. Through the addition of relevant physical processes, we are developing an earth systems modeling capability as well.

Mirin, A A

2007-02-05T23:59:59.000Z

179

The Los Alamos coupled climate model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To gain a full understanding of the Earth`s climate system, it is necessary to understand physical processes in the ocean, atmosphere, land and sea ice. In addition, interactions between components are very important and models which couple all of the components into a single coupled climate model are required. A climate model which couples ocean, sea ice, atmosphere and land components is described. The component models are run as autonomous processes coupled to a flux coupler through a flexible communications library. Performance considerations of the model are examined, particularly for running the model on distributed-shared-memory machine architectures.

Jones, P.W.; Malone, R.C.; Lai, C.A.

1998-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

180

Modeling land surface processes of the midwestern United States : predicting soil moisture under a warmer climate  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This dissertation seeks to quantify the response of soil moisture to climate change in the midwestern United States. To assess this response, a dynamic global vegetation model, Integrated Biosphere Simulator, was coupled ...

Winter, Jonathan (Jonathan Mark)

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

The Surface-Pressure Signature of Atmospheric Tides in Modern Climate Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Although atmospheric tides driven by solar heating are readily detectable at the earthís surface as variations in air pressure, their simulations in current coupled global climate models have not been fully examined. This ...

Covey, Curt

182

Is There Still Time to Avoid `Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference' with Global Climate?*#  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

by other key metrics that help define the causes and consequences of global climate change. The Earth's temperature, with rapid global warming over the past 30 years, is now passing through the peak level infrastructure that may be built within a decade will make it impractical to keep further global warming under 1

Hansen, James E.

183

Regional climate models, spatial data and extremes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

density function. f(y) = eg(y) or g(y) = log(f(y)) we are interested in the (simple) behavior of g when y bands show the 5­95% range for 19 simulations from five clim forcings due to solar activity Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessement Report. Used as evidence for attributing global

Nychka, Douglas

184

Sensitivity of global tropical climate to land surface processes: Mean state and interannual variability  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study examines the sensitivity of global tropical climate to land surface processes (LSP) using an atmospheric general circulation model both uncoupled (with prescribed SSTs) and coupled to an oceanic general circulation model. The emphasis is on the interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical processes, which have first order influence on the surface energy and water budgets. The sensitivity to those processes is represented by the differences between model simulations, in which two land surface schemes are considered: 1) a simple land scheme that specifies surface albedo and soil moisture availability, and 2) the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model (SSiB), which allows for consideration of interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical process. Observational datasets are also employed to assess the reality of model-revealed sensitivity. The mean state sensitivity to different LSP is stronger in the coupled mode, especially in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, seasonal cycle of SSTs in the equatorial Pacific, as well as ENSO frequency, amplitude, and locking to the seasonal cycle of SSTs are significantly modified and more realistic with SSiB. This outstanding sensitivity of the atmosphere-ocean system develops through changes in the intensity of equatorial Pacific trades modified by convection over land. Our results further demonstrate that the direct impact of land-atmosphere interactions on the tropical climate is modified by feedbacks associated with perturbed oceanic conditions ("indirect effect" of LSP). The magnitude of such indirect effect is strong enough to suggest that comprehensive studies on the importance of LSP on the global climate have to be made in a system that allows for atmosphere-ocean interactions.

Ma, Hsi-Yen; Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Xue, Yongkang

2013-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

COMPARING MODEL RESULTS TO NATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY GOALS: RESULTS FROM THE ASIA MODELING EXERCISE  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

While the world has yet to adopt a single unified policy to limit climate change, many countries and regions have adopted energy and climate policies that have implications for global emissions. In this paper, we discuss a few key policies and how they are included in a set of 24 energy and integrated assessment models that participated in the Asia Modeling Exercise. We also compare results from these models for a small set of stylized scenarios to the pledges made as part of the Copenhagen Accord and the goals stated by the Major Economies Forum. We find that the targets outlined by the United States, the European Union, Japan, and Korea require significant policy action in most of the models analyzed. For most of the models in the study, however, the goals outlined by India are met without any climate policy. The stringency of climate policy required to meet Chinaís Copenhagen pledges varies across models and accounting methodologies.

Calvin, Katherine V.; Fawcett, Allen A.; Jiang, Kejun

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

Climate Insights 101 Questions and Discussion Points: Module 1, Lesson 4: An Introduction to Climate Modelling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climate Insights 101 Questions and Discussion Points: Module 1, Lesson 4: An Introduction to Climate Modelling 1 Climate Insights 101 Questions and Discussion Points Module 1, Lesson 4: An Introduction to Climate Modelling Available at http://pics.uvic.ca/education/climate-insights-101 Updated May

Pedersen, Tom

187

Urban climate resilience : a global assessment of city adaptation plans  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

As policy makers accept climate change as an irrefutable threat, adaptation planning has emerged as a necessary action for countries, states, and municipalities. This thesis explores adaptive responses to climate change ...

Katich, Kristina Noel

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

Institutionalizing Unsustainability: The Paradox of Global Climate Governance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

s Fourth National Communication on Climate Change. A Reportclimate change can be assessed using data from national communicationscommunication were also reflected in the working drafts of the Spanish Climate Change

Stevenson, Hayley

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

189

Climate determinism revisited: multiple equilibria in a complex climate model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

by incoming solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere. We demonstrate that the multiple equilibria owe `snowball' state. Although low-order energy balance models of the climate are known to exhibit-640 Ma ago, e.g. Hoffmann et al. 1998), to a warm-house (no-ice) in the Cretaceous (e.g. Zachos et al

Marshall, John

190

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory interests and capabilities for research on the ecological effects of global climatic and atmospheric change  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has interests and capabilities in all three types of research that must be conducted in order to understand and predict effects of global atmospheric and climatic (i.e., environmental) changes on ecological systems and their functions (ecosystem function is perhaps most conveniently defined as mass and energy exchange and storage). These three types of research are: (1) manipulative experiments with plants and ecosystems; (2) monitoring of present ecosystem, landscape, and global exchanges and pools of energy, elements, and compounds that play important roles in ecosystem function or the physical climate system, and (3) mechanistic (i.e., hierarchic and explanatory) modeling of plant and ecosystem responses to global environmental change. Specific experimental programs, monitoring plans, and modeling activities related to evaluation of ecological effects of global environmental change that are of interest to, and that can be carried out by LLNL scientists are outlined. Several projects have the distinction of integrating modeling with empirical studies resulting in an Integrated Product (a model or set of models) that DOE or any federal policy maker could use to assess ecological effects. The authors note that any scheme for evaluating ecological effects of atmospheric and climatic change should take into account exceptional or sensitive species, in particular, rare, threatened, or endangered species.

Amthor, J.S.; Houpis, J.L.; Kercher, J.R.; Ledebuhr, A.; Miller, N.L.; Penner, J.E.; Robison, W.L.; Taylor, K.E.

1994-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

191

Institutionalizing Unsustainability: The Paradox of Global Climate Governance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

results in 4į C global warming, sea level rise, specieslevels of greenhouse gases are responsible for incremental global warming.levels as that of the developing countries, the world would not today have faced the threat of global warming.

Stevenson, Hayley

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

192

Assessing the effects of ocean diffusivity and climate sensitivity on the rate of global climate change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

sensitivity and ocean heat uptake on the rate of future climate change. We apply a range of values for climate a significant effect on the rate of transient climate change for high values of climate sensitivity, while values of climate sensitivity and low values of ocean diffusivity. Such high rates of change could

Schmittner, Andreas

193

How will changes in global climate influence California?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

future climate change impacts on water for agriculture andclimate change that will be important for California agriculture

Weare, B C

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

194

Long-Term Predictions of Global Climate Using the Ocean Conveyor  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Many have attributed the Great Ocean Conveyor as a major driver of global climate change over millennia as well as a possible explanation for shorter (multidecadal) oscillations. The conveyor is thought to have a cycle time on the order of 1000 years, however recent research has suggested that it is much faster than previously believed (about 100 years). A faster conveyor leads to the possibility of the conveyor's role in even shorter oscillations such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The conveyor is primarily density driven. In this study the salty outflow of the Red Sea is used to predict its behavior ten years into the future. A successful model could lead to a long-term prediction (ten years) of El Ninos, Atlantic hurricane season intensity, as well as global temperature and precipitation patterns.

Ray, P.; Wilson, J.R.

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

195

Aerosol, Cloud, and Climate: From Observation to Model  

ScienceCinema (OSTI)

Scientists have long been investigating this phenomenon of "global warming," which is believed to be at least partly due to the increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the air from burning fossil fuels. Funded by DOE, teams of researchers from BNL and other national labs have been gathering data in the U.S. and internationally to build computer models of climate and weather to help in understanding general patterns, causes, and perhaps, solutions.

Jian Wang

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

Aerosol, Cloud, and Climate: From Observation to Model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Scientists have long been investigating this phenomenon of "global warming," which is believed to be at least partly due to the increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the air from burning fossil fuels. Funded by DOE, teams of researchers from BNL and other national labs have been gathering data in the U.S. and internationally to build computer models of climate and weather to help in understanding general patterns, causes, and perhaps, solutions.

Jian Wang

2010-05-12T23:59:59.000Z

197

Constructive Contrasts Between Modeled and Measured Climate  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Constructive Contrasts Between Modeled and Measured Climate Responses Over a Regional Scale of simulated net primary production (NPP) to climate variables and the response observed in field measurements of NPP. Residual contrasts com- pared deviations of NPP from the empirical surface to identify groupings

Hargrove, William W.

198

Statistics and Climate Models Cari Kaufman  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the Climate System · Atmosphere · Ocean · Cryosphere · Land surface, biosphere · Atmospheric chemistry SAMSI Components of climate models: · Radiation - input, absorption, and emission · Dynamics - movement of energy's planetary radiation budget · Can run on a desktop computer · Predict surface temperature · Usually are 0-D

199

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model Ė namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) Ė is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops.

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

2014-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

Subtask 2.4 - Integration and Synthesis in Climate Change Predictive Modeling  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) completed a brief evaluation of the existing status of predictive modeling to assess options for integration of our previous paleohydrologic reconstructions and their synthesis with current global climate scenarios. Results of our research indicate that short-term data series available from modern instrumental records are not sufficient to reconstruct past hydrologic events or predict future ones. On the contrary, reconstruction of paleoclimate phenomena provided credible information on past climate cycles and confirmed their integration in the context of regional climate history is possible. Similarly to ice cores and other paleo proxies, acquired data represent an objective, credible tool for model calibration and validation of currently observed trends. It remains a subject of future research whether further refinement of our results and synthesis with regional and global climate observations could contribute to improvement and credibility of climate predictions on a regional and global scale.

Jaroslav Solc

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Developing fast and efficient climate models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, based on the global model of Tim Lenton. The resulting package comprises an Earth System Model was closely integrated with the GENIE (Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system model) project, funded by the NERC

Williamson, Mark

202

Regional climate downscaling with prior statistical correction of the global climate1 A. Colette (1), R. Vautard (2), M. Vrac (2)3  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Regional climate downscaling with prior statistical correction of the global climate1 forcing2 A Risques, INERIS, Verneuil-en-4 Halatte, France5 2. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l Corresponding author address : augustin.colette@ineris.fr8 Abstract9 A novel climate downscaling methodology

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

203

GLOBAL HYDRLOGIC PERSPECTIVES ON THE MID-CRETACEOUS GREENHOUSE CLIMATE (APTIAN-ALBIAN)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This dissertation examines the mid-Cretaceous greenhouse climate in the Aptian-Albian through the perspective of the global hydrologic cycle. Stable isotopic compositions of pedogenic and exposure surface carbonates presented ...

Suarez, Marina B.

2009-01-03T23:59:59.000Z

204

DOE-Sponsored Beaufort Sea Expedition Studies Methane's Role in Global Climate Cycle  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Washington, D.C. -- Increased understanding of methane's role in the global climate cycle and the potential of methane hydrate as a future energy resource could result from a recent joint research...

205

Journal of Climate How ocean circulation can decouple sea surface temperature from global radiative  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Journal of Climate How ocean circulation can decouple sea surface temperature from global radiative net radiation. The positively- correlated regime is associated with increased Southern Ocean balance and sea surface height --Manuscript Draft-- Manuscript Number: Full Title: How ocean circulation

Gnanadesikan, Anand

206

The role of US agricultural and forest activities in global climate change mitigation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

THE ROLE OF US AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST ACTIVITIES IN GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION A Dissertation by EN ZHU Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment... of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY August 2007 Major Subject: Agricultural Economics THE ROLE OF US AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST ACTIVITIES IN GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION A Dissertation...

Zhu, En

2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

207

Climate change and uncertainty in ecological niche modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in California." Journal of Climate 8(3): 606- Elith, J. , C.vegetation model for use with climate models: concepts andthe suitability of spatial climate data sets." International

Alvarez, Otto

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

208

The Community Climate System Model Version 4  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The fourth version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) was recently completed and released to the climate community. This paper describes developments to all the CCSM components, and documents fully coupled pre-industrial control runs compared to the previous version, CCSM3. Using the standard atmosphere and land resolution of 1{sup o} results in the sea surface temperature biases in the major upwelling regions being comparable to the 1.4{sup o} resolution CCSM3. Two changes to the deep convection scheme in the atmosphere component result in the CCSM4 producing El Nino/Southern Oscillation variability with a much more realistic frequency distribution than the CCSM3, although the amplitude is too large compared to observations. They also improve the representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and the frequency distribution of tropical precipitation. A new overflow parameterization in the ocean component leads to an improved simulation of the deep ocean density structure, especially in the North Atlantic. Changes to the CCSM4 land component lead to a much improved annual cycle of water storage, especially in the tropics. The CCSM4 sea ice component uses much more realistic albedos than the CCSM3, and the Arctic sea ice concentration is improved in the CCSM4. An ensemble of 20th century simulations runs produce an excellent match to the observed September Arctic sea ice extent from 1979 to 2005. The CCSM4 ensemble mean increase in globally-averaged surface temperature between 1850 and 2005 is larger than the observed increase by about 0.4 C. This is consistent with the fact that the CCSM4 does not include a representation of the indirect effects of aerosols, although other factors may come into play. The CCSM4 still has significant biases, such as the mean precipitation distribution in the tropical Pacific Ocean, too much low cloud in the Arctic, and the latitudinal distributions of short-wave and long-wave cloud forcings.

Gent, Peter R.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Donner, Leo J.; Holland, Marika M.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Jayne, Steve R.; Lawrence, David M.; Neale, Richard; Rasch, Philip J.; Vertenstein, Mariana; Worley, Patrick; Yang, Zong-Liang; Zhang, Minghua

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

209

Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

CERN. Geneva

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

210

Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the IPCC Ensemble of Global Coupled Model Simulations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the IPCC Ensemble of Global Coupled Model September 2006) ABSTRACT Temperature and precipitation extremes and their potential future changes on Climate Change (IPCC) diagnostic exercise for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Climate extremes

211

National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment Energy and Climate Change  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment: Energy and Climate Change will develop and advance partnerships that focus on transitioning the world to a new "low carbon" and "climate resilient" energy system. It will emphasize putting ideas into action - moving forward on policy and practice.

212

THE SECOND LAW OF THERMODYNAMICS AND THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM: A REVIEW OF THE MAXIMUM  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to absorption of solar radiation in the climate system is found to be irrelevant to the maximized prop- erties from hot to cold places, thereby producing the kinetic energy of the fluid itself. His generalTHE SECOND LAW OF THERMODYNAMICS AND THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM: A REVIEW OF THE MAXIMUM ENTROPY

Lorenz, Ralph D.

213

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity and the Global Climate Change Initiative (released in AEO2006)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administrations Global Climate Change Initiative. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity-defined as the ratio of total U.S. GHG emissions to economic output-by 18% over the 2002 to 2012 time frame.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity and the Global Climate Change Initiative (released in AEO2005)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administrations Global Climate Change Initiative. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas intensity by 18% over the 2002 to 2012 time frame. For the purposes of the initiative, greenhouse gas intensity is defined as the ratio of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to economic output.

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

Extinction Risk, Ecological Stress and Climate Change: How Species Respond to Changes in Global Biodiversity?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Extinction Risk, Ecological Stress and Climate Change: How Species Respond to Changes in Global subordinate species less intelligent than us, at risk of extinction. In other words, anthropogenic activities have made other species sensitive to changes in climate and habitat vulnerable to extinction [Parry et

Paris-Sud XI, Universitť de

216

Reducing climate change impacts on agriculture: Global and regional effects of mitigation, 20002080  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and poor countries [7]. A consensus has emerged that developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries, because of the predominance of agriculture in their economiesReducing climate change impacts on agriculture: Global and regional effects of mitigation, 2000

217

Development and application of WRF3.3-CLM4crop to study of agriculture - climate interaction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Global Climate Change and United-States Agriculture, Nature,climate modeling Land surface modeling Agriculture and climate interaction Land use change

Lu, Yaqiong

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

218

Influence of Climate Change Mitigation Technology on Global Demands of Water for Electricity Generation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Globally, electricity generation accounts for a large and potentially growing water demand, and as such is an important component to assessments of global and regional water scarcity. However, the current suiteóas well as potential future suitesóof thermoelectric generation technologies has a very wide range of water demand intensities, spanning two orders of magnitude. As such, the evolution of the generation mix is important for the future water demands of the sector. This study uses GCAM, an integrated assessment model, to analyze the global electric sectorís water demands in three futures of climate change mitigation policy and two technology strategies. We find that despite five- to seven-fold expansion of the electric sector as a whole from 2005 to 2095, global electric sector water withdrawals remain relatively stable, due to the retirement of existing power plants with water-intensive once-through flow cooling systems. In the scenarios examined here, climate policies lead to the large-scale deployment of advanced, low-emissions technologies such as carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), concentrating solar power, and engineered geothermal systems. In particular, we find that the large-scale deployment of CCS technologies does not increase long-term water consumption from hydrocarbon-fueled power generation as compared with a no-policy scenario without CCS. Moreover, in sensitivity scenarios where low-emissions electricity technologies are required to use dry cooling systems, we find that the consequent additional costs and efficiency reductions do not limit the utility of these technologies in achieving cost-effective whole-system emissions mitigation.

Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Dooley, James J.; Smith, Steven J.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.

2013-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

219

Atmospheric Climate Model Experiments Performed at Multiple Horizontal Resolutions  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report documents salient features of version 3.3 of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.3) and of three climate simulations in which the resolution of its latitude-longitude grid was systematically increased. For all these simulations of global atmospheric climate during the period 1980-1999, observed monthly ocean surface temperatures and sea ice extents were prescribed according to standard Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) values. These CAM3.3 resolution experiments served as control runs for subsequent simulations of the climatic effects of agricultural irrigation, the focus of a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project. The CAM3.3 model was able to replicate basic features of the historical climate, although biases in a number of atmospheric variables were evident. Increasing horizontal resolution also generally failed to ameliorate the large-scale errors in most of the climate variables that could be compared with observations. A notable exception was the simulation of precipitation, which incrementally improved with increasing resolution, especially in regions where orography plays a central role in determining the local hydroclimate.

Phillips, T; Bala, G; Gleckler, P; Lobell, D; Mirin, A; Maxwell, R; Rotman, D

2007-12-21T23:59:59.000Z

220

adopting global climate: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

and biomass which are environmentally clean is aimed at diversification of the energy matrix, mitigating against climate change and providing alternatives to the use of...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

How will changes in global climate influence California?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, UC Davis.climate change impacts on water for agriculture and otherincreased flooding and reduced water availability, higher

Weare, B C

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

222

Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates. Progress report, February 1, 1992--January 31, 1993  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Predicting the potential climatic effects of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide requires the continuing development of climate models. Confidence in the predictions will be much enhanced once the models are thoroughly tested in terms of their ability to simulate climates that differ significantly from today`s climate. As one index of the magnitude of past climate change, the global mean temperature increase during the past 18,000 years is similar to that predicted for carbon dioxide--doubling. Simulating the climatic changes of the past 18,000 years, as well as the warmer-than-present climate of 6000 years ago and the climate of the last interglacial, around 126,000 years ago, provides an excellent opportunity to test the models that are being used in global climate change research. During the past several years, we have used paleoclimatic data to test the accuracy of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, Version 0, after changing its boundary conditions to those appropriate for past climates. We have assembled regional and near-global paleoclimatic data sets of pollen, lake level, and marine plankton data and calibrated many of the data in terms of climatic variables. We have also developed methods that permit direct quantitative comparisons between the data and model results. Our research has shown that comparing the model results with the data is an evolutionary process, because the models, the data, and the methods for comparison are continually being improved. During 1992, we have completed new modeling experiments, further analyzed previous model experiments, compiled new paleodata, made new comparisons between data and model results, and participated in workshops on paleoclimatic modeling.

Prell, W.L.; Webb, T. III

1992-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

The Contribution of Biomass to Emissions Mitigation under a Global Climate Policy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

What will large-scale global bioenergy production look like? We investigate this question by developing a detailed representation of bioenergy in a global economy-wide model. We develop a scenario with a global carbon ...

Winchester, N.

224

A look at the ocean in the EC-Earth climate model Andreas Sterl Richard Bintanja Laurent Brodeau Emily Gleeson  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to the special issue on EC-Earth, a global climate and earth system model based on the seasonal forecast system-011-1239-2 #12;phytoplankton) processes are involved. To study such complex interactions, Earth System Models

Haak, Hein

225

Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO sub 2 and climate change  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth's surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society's ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

1992-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

226

Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth`s surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society`s ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

1992-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

227

Projecting Impacts of Global Climate Change on the U.S. Forest and Agriculture Sectors and Carbon Budgets  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Projecting Impacts of Global Climate Change on the U.S. Forest and Agriculture Sectors and Carbon Impacts of Global Climate Change on the U.S. Forest and Agriculture Sectors and Carbon Budgets of possible deleterious effects of climate change on agricultural and forest productivity has been raised

McCarl, Bruce A.

228

Background: Global Warming, 2009 1. Unequivocally, the climate is warming. Natural systems are affected.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Background: Global Warming, 2009 1. Unequivocally, the climate is warming. Natural systems are affected. 2. Very likely (>90% certainty), humans are causing most of the warming. 3. No single technology are very likely to impose net annual costs, which will increase over time as global temperatures increase

Minnesota, University of

229

Intercomparison and evaluation of global aerosol microphysical properties among AeroCom models of a range of complexity  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Many of the next generation of global climate models will include aerosol schemes which explicitly simulate the microphysical processes that determine the particle size distribution. These models enable aerosol optical ...

Ridley, David Andrew

230

Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and Modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

facing California, with projected impacts reaching every sector of the state's economy and public health. The energy sector will not be spared. The potential repercussions of climate change include frequent heat waves, increased energy consumption, reduced hydropower generation in the summer season

231

Constraining Climate Model Parameters from Observed 20th Century Changes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We present revised probability density functions for climate model parameters (effective climate sensitivity, the rate of deep-ocean heat uptake, and the strength of the net aerosol forcing) that are based on climate change ...

Forest, Chris Eliot

232

Institutionalizing Unsustainability: The Paradox of Global Climate Governance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

on International Emissions Trading. Global Envi- ronmentalTask Group on Emissions Trading. Final Report: Introductionand Crawshaw, David. 2006. Emissions Trading Inquiry a Joke:

Stevenson, Hayley

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

233

Climate modeler David Stainforth. Photo courtesy of David Stainforth.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climate modeler David Stainforth. Photo courtesy of David Stainforth. 3. SCIENCE: Intrepid British climate modeler sets out to win over doubters (07/19/2011) Jeremy Lovell, E&E European correspondent the climate debate by explaining why uncertainty has to be a part of the computerized climate models

Stevenson, Paul

234

Improved Offshore Wind Resource Assessment in Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper introduces a technique for digesting geospatial wind-speed data into areally defined -- country-level, in this case -- wind resource supply curves. We combined gridded wind-vector data for ocean areas with bathymetry maps, country exclusive economic zones, wind turbine power curves, and other datasets and relevant parameters to build supply curves that estimate a country's offshore wind resource defined by resource quality, depth, and distance-from-shore. We include a single set of supply curves -- for a particular assumption set -- and study some implications of including it in a global energy model. We also discuss the importance of downscaling gridded wind vector data to capturing the full resource potential, especially over land areas with complex terrain. This paper includes motivation and background for a statistical downscaling methodology to account for terrain effects with a low computational burden. Finally, we use this forum to sketch a framework for building synthetic electric networks to estimate transmission accessibility of renewable resource sites in remote areas.

Arent, D.; Sullivan, P.; Heimiller, D.; Lopez, A.; Eurek, K.; Badger, J.; Jorgensen, H. E.; Kelly, M.; Clarke, L.; Luckow, P.

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

programs in climate change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

existing programs in climate change science and infrastructure. The Laboratory has a 15- year history in climate change science. The Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling (COSIM) project develops and maintains advanced numerical models of the ocean, sea ice, and ice sheets for use in global climate change

236

New Directions: A facelift for the picture of the global energy balance Earth's climate is largely regulated by the global energy balance,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

New Directions: A facelift for the picture of the global energy balance Earth's climate is largely regulated by the global energy balance, which considers the energy flows within the climate system a perturbation of this energy balance, through a modification of the energy flows in the polluted atmosphere

Fischlin, Andreas

237

The Role of Asia in Mitigating Climate Change: Results from the Asia Modeling Exercise  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In 2010, Asia accounted for 60% of global population, 39% of Gross World Product, 44% of global energy consumption and nearly half of the worldís energy system CO2 emissions. Thus, Asia is an important region to consider in any discussion of climate change or climate change mitigation. This paper explores the role of Asia in mitigating climate change, by comparing the results of 23 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. We focus our analysis on seven key areas: base year data, future energy use and emissions absent climate policy, the effect of urban and rural development on future energy use and emissions, the role of technology in emissions mitigation, regional emissions mitigation, and national climate policies

Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Krey, Volker; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Jiang, Kejun; Kainuma, M.; Kriegler, Elmar; Luderer, Gunnar; Shukla, Priyadarshi R.

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

238

The Community Land Model and Its Climate Statistics as a Component of the Community Climate System Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC; i.e., the followThe Community Land Model and Its Climate Statistics as a Component of the Community Climate System carried out with the new version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). This paper reports

Hoffman, Forrest M.

239

Progress Report 2008: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This project employs multi-disciplinary teams to accelerate development of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), based at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). A consortium of eight Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories collaborate with NCAR and the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). The laboratories are Argonne (ANL), Brookhaven (BNL) Los Alamos (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore (LLNL), Oak Ridge (ORNL), Pacific Northwest (PNNL) and Sandia (SNL). The work plan focuses on scalablity for petascale computation and extensibility to a more comprehensive earth system model. Our stated goal is to support the DOE mission in climate change research by helping ... To determine the range of possible climate changes over the 21st century and beyond through simulations using a more accurate climate system model that includes the full range of human and natural climate feedbacks with increased realism and spatial resolution.

Drake, John B [ORNL; Worley, Patrick H [ORNL; Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Jones, Phil [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

Bayesian methods for discontinuity detection in climate model predictions.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Discontinuity detection is an important component in many fields: Image recognition, Digital signal processing, and Climate change research. Current methods shortcomings are: Restricted to one- or two-dimensional setting, Require uniformly spaced and/or dense input data, and Give deterministic answers without quantifying the uncertainty. Spectral methods for Uncertainty Quantification with global, smooth bases are challenged by discontinuities in model simulation results. Domain decomposition reduces the impact of nonlinearities and discontinuities. However, while gaining more smoothness in each subdomain, the current domain refinement methods require prohibitively many simulations. Therefore, detecting discontinuities up front and refining accordingly provides huge improvement to the current methodologies.

Safta, Cosmin; Debusschere, Bert J.; Najm, Habib N.; Sargsyan, Khachik

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Introduction. Stochastic physics and climate modelling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

become a backbone of numerical weather prediction and is used not only by weather forecasters but also. Stochastic physics schemes within weather and climate models have the potential to represent the dynamical history, the present era, whereby predictions are made from numerical solutions of the underlying dynamic

Williams, Paul

242

RESEARCH ARTICLE A novel soil organic C model using climate, soil type  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

RESEARCH ARTICLE A novel soil organic C model using climate, soil type and management data-Verlag, France 2012 Abstract This report evidences factors controlling soil or- ganic carbon at the national scale by modelling data of 2,158 soil samples from France. The global soil carbon amount, of about 1

Paris-Sud XI, Universitť de

243

Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global energy of the subcloud layer. On time scales larger than that characterizing the thermal equilibration of greater intensity. Calculations with a single-column model (4) confirm that increasing greenhouse gas

Rothman, Daniel

244

Local Response to Global Climate Change: The Role of Local Development Plans in Climate Change Management  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

consists of ten sections. Section 1 gives a brief background on the research, presents research purposes and objectives, and describes the motivation for conducting this study. Section 2 reviews the climate change management and urban 7 development...

Grover, Himanshu

2011-10-21T23:59:59.000Z

245

Sensitivity of China's ozone air quality to 2000-2050 global changes of1 climate and emissions2  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Sensitivity of China's ozone air quality to 2000-2050 global changes of1 climate and emissions2 3 emissions of ozone precursors. The climate and16 emission effect in combination will increase afternoon mean increases18 in global (excluding China) anthropogenic emissions, 37% to Chinese emission19 increases

Wu, Shiliang

246

Simulations of Present and Future Climates in the Western United States with Four Nested Regional Climate Models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We analyze simulations of present and future climates in the western U.S. performed with four regional climate models (RCMs) nested within two global ocean-atmosphere climate models. Our primary goal is to assess the range of regional climate responses to increased greenhouse gases in available RCM simulations. The four RCMs used different geographical domains, different increased greenhouse gas scenarios for future-climate simulations, and (in some cases) different lateral boundary conditions. For simulations of the present climate, we compare RCM results to observations and to results of the GCM that provided lateral boundary conditions to the RCM. For future-climate (increased greenhouse gas) simulations, we compare RCM results to each other and to results of the driving GCMs. When results are spatially averaged over the western U.S., we find that the results of each RCM closely follow those of the driving GCM in the same region, in both present and future climates. This is true even though the study area is in some cases a small fraction of the RCM domain. Precipitation responses predicted by the RCMs are in many regions not statistically significant compared to interannual variability. Where the predicted precipitation responses are statistically significant, they are positive. The models agree that near-surface temperatures will increase, but do not agree on the spatial pattern of this increase. The four RCMs produce very different estimates of water content of snow in the present climate, and of the change in this water content in response to increased greenhouse gases.

Duffy, Phil; Arritt, R.; Coquard, J.; Gutowski, William; Han, J.; Iorio, J.; Kim, Jongil; Leung, Lai R.; Roads, J.; Zeledon, E.

2006-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

247

PAGES 111Ė112 Climate and Earth system models are the  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

only tools used to make predictions of future climate change. Such predictions are subject to considerable uncertainties, and understanding these uncertainties has clear and important policy implications. This Forum highlights the concepts of reductionism and emergence, and past climate variability, to illuminate some of the uncertainties faced by those wishing to model the future evolution of global climate. General circulation models (GCMs) of the atmosphere-ocean system are scientistsí principal tools for providing information about future climate. GCMs consequently have considerable influence on climate changeĖrelated policy questions. Over the past decade, there have been significant attempts, mainly by statisticians and mathematicians, to explore the uncertainties in model simulations of possible futures, accompanied by growing debate about the interpretation of these simulations as aids in societal decisions. In this Forum, we discuss atmosphere-ocean GCMs in the context of reductionist and emergent approaches to scientific study.

unknown authors

248

It's too late to seal a global climate deal. But we need action, not Kyoto II  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to economic development, with development based on cleaner, sustainable technologies for power, transport, buildings and industry. The rich world will benefit as the poor world goes green, and will have to pay much wait It's too late to seal a global climate deal. But we need action, not Kyoto II |... http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cif-green

249

RISNEWS DECEMBER2007NO Global climate and energy challenges can be solved  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

laboratory for sustainable energy, Ris√ł DTU is ready to contribute to solving the problems ¬≠ which also ...........................................................11 Magnetic cooling provides energy savings and environmental improvements .............12 Solar cellRIS√?NEWSNO 22007PAGE1 RIS√?NEWS DECEMBER2007NO 2 Global climate and energy challenges can be solved

250

Sea Ice in the Global Climate System Kenneth M. Golden1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sea Ice in the Global Climate System Kenneth M. Golden1 , Elizabeth Hunke2 , Cecilia Bitz3 Figure 2. The Antarctic sea ice pack with an open lead in the distance. (K. M. Golden) Figure 1. Pancake ice in the Southern Ocean off the coast of East Antarctica. (K. M. Golden

Golden, Kenneth M.

251

Building a Global Federation System for Climate Change Research: The Earth System Grid Center for Enabling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Building a Global Federation System for Climate Change Research: The Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) The Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies Team: R Ananthakrishnan1 , D E Bernholdt7,9 , S Bharathi8 , D Brown5 , M Chen7 , A L Chervenak8 , L Cinquini5 , R Drach3

Chervenak, Ann

252

Energy Conclave 2010 The global energy concerns of depleting fossil fuels and climate change have put  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of providing clean and green energy. Energy Conclave 2010 8th - 15th The global energy concerns of depleting fossil fuels and climate done in the area of energy and to set guidelines for the future. The `Energy Conclave 2010' provided

Srivastava, Kumar Vaibhav

253

Assessment of Climate Change Effect to Regional and Global Biodiversity: a MetaAnalysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Assessment of Climate Change Effect to Regional and Global Biodiversity: a Meta­Analysis Talk given on biodiversity main- tenance in regional ecosystems. Based on works by Hans van Houwelingen and colleagues, we. The effect of this change on biodiversity has been widely discussed where peer-review publications have

Breuer, Florian

254

The Economic Impact of Global Climate and Tropospheric Ozone on World Agricultural Production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

by Xiaodu (Dulles) Wang Bachelor of Science with majors in Electrical Engineering, Economics and ComputerThe Economic Impact of Global Climate and Tropospheric Ozone on World Agricultural Production Engineering The Johns Hopkins University, June 2003 Submitted to the Engineering Systems Division

255

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGE ON THE PHENOLOGY AND YIELD OF MAIZE IN VENEZUELA *  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGE ON THE PHENOLOGY AND YIELD OF MAIZE IN VENEZUELA de Ciencias, Universidad de Los Andes, Mdrida 5101, Venezuela 21nstitute of Applied Sciences, Venezuela 4Centro de Estudios Avanzados del Clima Tropical (CEACT), Ministerio deI Ambiente y de los

Robock, Alan

256

Influence of Modes of Climate Variability on Global Temperature Extremes JESSE KENYON  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Influence of Modes of Climate Variability on Global Temperature Extremes JESSE KENYON Nicholas variability on worldwide summer and winter temperature extremes has been analyzed, namely, that of the El Ni√Īo for temperature extremes from world- wide land areas are used describe moderate extremes, such as the number

257

Stanford- Global Climate and Energy Project | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Office of InspectorConcentrating SolarElectric Coop, Inc Place: Missouri References:InformationStanford- Global

258

Global empirical wind model for the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere. I. Prevailing wind  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Global empirical wind model for the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere. I. Prevailing wind Y. I. An updated empirical climatic zonally aver- aged prevailing wind model for the upper mesosphere/ lower of monthly mean winds from meteor radar and MF radar measurements at more than 40 stations, well distributed

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

259

CLIMATE SCIENCE The Community Climate System Model results from a multi-agency collaboration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Could global warming be responsible for the July 2006 heat waves in Europe and the United States? Should- ter(NCDC),whicharchivesallweatherdataforthe nation, reports that global surface temperatures have, the DOEisdedicatedtoadvancingclimateresearchin order to elucidate the causes of climate change, includingtheroleofcarbonloadingfromfossilfuel use

Long, Nicholas

260

Climate Extremes, Uncertainty and Impacts Climate Change Challenge: The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climate Extremes, Uncertainty and Impacts Climate Change Challenge: The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, AR4) has resulted in a wider acceptance of global climate change climate extremes and change impacts. Uncertainties in process studies, climate models, and associated

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Valuing Climate Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models: The MIT IGSM  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We discuss a strategy for investigating the impacts of climate change on Earthís physical, biological and human resources and links to their socio-economic consequences. The features of the integrated global system framework ...

Reilly, John

2012-05-22T23:59:59.000Z

262

The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper presents an analysis of possible uses of climate policy instruments for the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector in a non-equilibrium economic and technology innovation-diffusion perspective. Emissions reductions occur through changes in technology and energy consumption; in this context, investment decision-making opportunities occur periodically, which energy policy can incentivise in order to transform energy systems and meet reductions targets. Energy markets are driven by innovation, dynamic costs and technology diffusion; yet, the incumbent systems optimisation methodology in energy modelling does not address these aspects nor the effectiveness of policy onto decision-making since the dynamics modelled take their source from the top-down `social-planner' assumption. This leads to an underestimation of strong technology lock-ins in cost-optimal scenarios of technology. Our approach explores the global diffusion of low carbon technology in connection to a highly disaggregated sector...

Mercure, J -F; Foley, A M; Chewpreecha, U; Pollitt, H

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

263

Influence of spatial resolution on regional climate model derived wind climates  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of northern Europe is more profound in the wind extremes than in the central tendency. The domain are of similar magnitude to the climate change signal in extreme wind events derived in prior research and mayInfluence of spatial resolution on regional climate model derived wind climates S. C. Pryor,1 G

Pryor, Sara C.

264

Global estimation of evapotranspiration using a leaf area index-based surface energy and water balance model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

using Advanced Very High Res- olution Radiometer Lai data, Climate Research Unit climate dataGlobal estimation of evapotranspiration using a leaf area index-based surface energy and water-relative-humidity-based two-source (ARTS) E model that simulates the surface energy balance, soil water balance

Martin, Timothy

265

What is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes?  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Regional climate change impact (CCI) studies have widely involved downscaling and bias-correcting (BC) Global Climate Model (GCM)-projected climate for driving land surface models. However, BC may cause uncertainties in projecting hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to future climate due to the impaired spatiotemporal covariance of climate variables and a breakdown of physical conservation principles. Here we quantify the impact of BC on simulated climate-driven changes in water variables(evapotranspiration, ET; runoff; snow water equivalent, SWE; and water demand for irrigation), crop yield, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC), nitric oxide (NO) emissions, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) Region. We also quantify the impacts on net primary production (NPP) over a small watershed in the region (HJ Andrews). Simulation results from the coupled ECHAM5/MPI-OM model with A1B emission scenario were firstly dynamically downscaled to 12 km resolutions with WRF model. Then a quantile mapping based statistical downscaling model was used to downscale them into 1/16th degree resolution daily climate data over historical and future periods. Two series climate data were generated according to the option of bias-correction (i.e. with bias-correction (BC) and without bias-correction, NBC). Impact models were then applied to estimate hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to both BC and NBC meteorological datasets. These im20 pact models include a macro-scale hydrologic model (VIC), a coupled cropping system model (VIC-CropSyst), an ecohydrologic model (RHESSys), a biogenic emissions model (MEGAN), and a nutrient export model (Global-NEWS). Results demonstrate that the BC and NBC climate data provide consistent estimates of the climate-driven changes in water fluxes (ET, runoff, and water demand), VOCs (isoprene and monoterpenes) and NO emissions, mean crop yield, and river DIN export over the PNW domain. However, significant differences rise from projected SWE, crop yield from dry lands, and HJ Andrewsís ET between BC and NBC data. Even though BC post-processing has no significant impacts on most of the studied variables when taking PNW as a whole, their effects have large spatial variations and some local areas are substantially influenced. In addition, there are months during which BC and NBC post-processing produces significant differences in projected changes, such as summer runoff. Factor-controlled simulations indicate that BC post-processing of precipitation and temperature both substantially contribute to these differences at region scales. We conclude that there are trade-offs between using BC climate data for offline CCI studies vs. direct modeled climate data. These trade-offs should be considered when designing integrated modeling frameworks for specific applications; e.g., BC may be more important when considering impacts on reservoir operations in mountainous watersheds than when investigating impacts on biogenic emissions and air quality (where VOCs are a primary indicator).

Liu, M. L.; Rajagopalan, K.; Chung, S. H.; Jiang, X.; Harrison, J. H.; Nergui, T.; Guenther, Alex B.; Miller, C.; Reyes, J.; Tague, C. L.; Choate, J. S.; Salathe, E.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Adam, J. C.

2014-05-16T23:59:59.000Z

266

Modeling Climate Change Adaptation: Challenges, Recent Developments and Future Directions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Modeling Climate Change Adaptation: Challenges, Recent Developments and Future Directions Karen of modeling practice in the field of integrated assessment of climate change and ways forward. Past efforts assessments of climate change have concentrated on developing baseline emissions scenarios and analyzing

Wing, Ian Sue

267

WHAT TO DO ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE? Slowing the rate of carbon burning won't stop global warming  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

WHAT TO DO ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE? #12;Slowing the rate of carbon burning won't stop global warming: most CO2 stays in the air over a century, though individual molecules come and go. Global warming. But we need to research it -- starting now. If global warming gets bad, public opinion may suddently flip

Baez, John

268

The dilemma of fossil fuel use and global climate change  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The use of fossil fuels and relationship to climate change is discussed. As the use of fossil fuels has grown, the problems of protecting the environment and human health and safety have also grown, providing a continuing challenge to technological and managerial innovation. Today that challenge is to control atmospheric emissions from combustion, particularly those emissions that cause acidic deposition, urban pollution, and increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. Technology for reducing acidic deposition is available and needs only to be adopted, and the remedies for urban pollution are being developed and tested. How effective or expensive these will be remains to be determined. The control of emissions of the greenhouse gas, CO{sub 2}, seems possible only be reducing the total amounts of fossil fuels used worldwide, and by substituting efficient natural gas technologies for coal. Long before physical depletion forces the transition away from fossil fuels, it is at least plausible and even likely that the greenhouse effect will impose a show-stopping constraint. If such a transition were soon to be necessary, the costs would be very high because substitute energy sources are either limited or expensive or undesirable for other reasons. Furthermore, the costs would be unevenly felt and would be more oppressive for developing nations because they would be least able to pay and, on average, their use rates of fossil fuels are growing much faster than those of many industrialized countries. It is prudent, therefore, to try to manage the use of fossil fuels as if a greenhouse constraint is an important possibility.

Judkins, R.R.; Fulkerson, W. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)); Sanghvi, M.K. (Amoco Corp., Chicago, IL (USA))

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

A Framework for Modeling Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the US associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources ...

Monier, Erwan

270

Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4 Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4 C. M. BITZ Atmospheric climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.208C for 18 horizontal). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 18 resolution is 1.728C, which is about 0.28C higher than in CCSM3

Reif, Rafael

271

SWS 5182: Earth System Analysis Catalogue Description: Analysis of global-scale interdependences between climate, biogeochemical  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

System Model Carbon sequestration and climate mitigation potential of vegetation and soils 12 - 13 Earth fuel 11 Terrestrial biogeochemistry Chapter 5 and Chapter 6 Account for land carbon cycle in your Earth

Ma, Lena

272

Global Ecology and Biogeography, (Global Ecol. Biogeogr.) (2013) 22, 470482, DOI: 10.1111/geb.12012 Soil water balance performs better than climatic water variables in tree species  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Global Ecology and Biogeography, (Global Ecol. Biogeogr.) (2013) 22, 470­482, DOI: 10.1111/geb water balance indices to predict the ecological niches of forest tree species. Location: France Methods aiming to determine the ecological niches of plant species and their responses to climate change. Key

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

273

Post-doctoral Position Title Quantify the net global climate impacts of past and future land-  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

objective is to make this protocol widely available so that other earth system modeling groups outside uses and land use changes in global earth system models, and test the impact of various implementation

Pouyanne, Nicolas

274

Looking at Earth as a System Chapter 11 UnderstandingGlobalClimateChange 2  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Looking at Earth as a System Chapter 11 #12;UnderstandingGlobalClimateChange 2 A Systems Approach to Look at Earth 1.1 AdifferentwayofunderstandingEarth Notes1.1.1 If we are going to look at Earth and the house would end up either being too hot or too cold. #12;Looking at Earth as a System Chapter 13 Notes1

Howat, Ian M.

275

How Do We Know that Human Activities Have Influenced Global Climate?  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Human activities have significantly altered not only the chemical composition of Earth's atmosphere, but also the climate system. Human influences have led to increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases, decreases in stratospheric ozone, and changes in the atmospheric burdens of sulfate and soot aerosols. All of these atmospheric constituents interact with incoming solar and outgoing terrestrial radiation. Human-induced changes in the concentrations of these constituents modify the natural radiative balance of Earth's atmosphere, and therefore perturb climate. Quantifying the size of the human effect on climate is a difficult statistical problem. 'Fingerprint' methods are typically used for this purpose. These methods involve rigorous statistical comparisons of modeled and observed climate change patterns. Fingerprinting assumes that each individual influence on climate has a unique signature in climate records. The climate fingerprints in response to different forcing factors are typically estimated with computer models, which can be used to perform the controlled experiments that we cannot conduct in the real world. One criticism of the findings of previous scientific assessments is that they have relied heavily on fingerprint studies involving changes in near-surface temperature. Recent fingerprint work, however, has considered a variety of other climate variables, such as ocean heat content, stratospheric temperatures, Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, sea level pressure, atmospheric water vapor, and the height of the tropopause. These studies illustrate that a human-induced climate change signal is identifiable in many different variables and geographic regions, and that the climate system is telling us an internally- and physically-consistent story.

Santer, Benjamin D.

2007-11-05T23:59:59.000Z

276

How Do We Know That Human Activities Have Influenced Global Climate?  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Human activities have significantly altered not only the chemical composition of Earth's atmosphere, but also the climate system. Human influences have led to increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases, decreases in stratospheric ozone, and changes in the atmospheric burdens of sulfate and soot aerosols. All of these atmospheric constituents interact with incoming solar and outgoing terrestrial radiation. Human-induced changes in the concentrations of these constituents modify the natural radiative balance of Earth's atmosphere, and therefore perturb climate. Quantifying the size of the human effect on climate is a difficult statistical problem. "Fingerprint" methods are typically used for this purpose. These methods involve rigorous statistical comparisons of modeled and observed climate change patterns. Fingerprinting assumes that each individual influence on climate has a unique signature in climate records. The climate fingerprints in response to different forcing factors are typically estimated with computer models, which can be used to perform the controlled experiments that we cannot conduct in the real world. One criticism of the findings of previous scientific assessments is that they have relied heavily on fingerprint studies involving changes in near-surface temperature. Recent fingerprint work, however, has considered a variety of other climate variables, such as ocean heat content, stratospheric temperatures, Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, sea level pressure, atmospheric water vapor, and the height of the tropopause. These studies illustrate that a human-induced climate change signal is identifiable in many different variables and geographic regions, and that the climate system is telling us an internally- and physically-consistent story.

Dr. Benjamin D. Santer

2007-11-05T23:59:59.000Z

277

Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

Auffhammer, Maximilian [University of California at Berkeley; Hsiang, Solomon M. [Princeton University; Schlenker, Wolfram [Columbia University; Sobel, Adam H. [Columbia University

2013-06-28T23:59:59.000Z

278

Thunderstorms in a changing climate: A cloudresolving modeling study  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

prediction of surface water and groundwater dynamics under projected climate change scenarios Thunderstorms in a changing climate: A cloudresolving modeling study Joseph Galewsky@unm.edu One of the potential impacts of a changing climate is an increase in the severity of thunderstorms

Maccabe, Barney

279

RESEARCH ARTICLE Climate change model predicts 33 % rice yield decrease  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

RESEARCH ARTICLE Climate change model predicts 33 % rice yield decrease in 2100 in Bangladesh parameters on rice. The effects of climate change on yield of a popular winter rice cultivar in Bangladesh online: 12 June 2012 # INRA and Springer-Verlag, France 2012 Abstract In Bangladesh, projected climate

Boyer, Edmond

280

15.023J / 12.848J / ESD.128J Global Climate Change: Economics, Science, and Policy, Spring 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Introduces scientific, economic, and ecological issues underlying the threat of global climate change, and the institutions engaged in negotiating an international response. Develops an integrated approach to analysis of ...

Jacoby, Henry D.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

15.023J / 12.848J / ESD.128J Global Climate Change: Economics, Science, and Policy, Spring 2004  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Introduces scientific, economic, and ecological issues underlying the threat of global climate change, and the institutions engaged in negotiating an international response. Develops an integrated approach to analysis of ...

Jacoby, Henry D.

282

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 2 | NOVEMBER 2012 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange 775 vidence is clear that Earth's global average climate has warmed  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 2 | NOVEMBER 2012 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange 775 E vidence anthropogenic climate change on timescales of a few decades and spatial scales smaller than continen- tal2 in climate change projections are due to model shortcomings, and it is sometimes confidently asserted

Fischlin, Andreas

283

Landau gauge condensates from global color model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We compute the dimension-2 gluon pair condensate $g^2$ and the dimension-4 mixed quark-gluon condensate $$ in Landau gauge within the framework of global color model. The result for the dynamical gluon mass is within the range given by other independent determinations. The obtained mixed Landau gauge condensate $$ is clearly dependent on the definitions of the condensates. We show that the consistent result may be obtained when the same definitions are used.

Zhao Zhang; Wei-qin Zhao

2006-03-23T23:59:59.000Z

284

Recent Climate Changes in Precipitable Water in the Global Tropics as Revealed in NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Recent Climate Changes in Precipitable Water in the Global Tropics as Revealed in NCEP: 1 (808) 956-2877 Email: chu@hawaii.edu #12;2 Abstract For the first time, long-term climate changes/NCAR Reanalysis Igor I. Zveryaev and Pao-Shin Chu* P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS, Moscow, Russia

Hawai'i at Manoa, University of

285

UNCORRECTED Grid geometry effects on convection in ocean climate models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

UNCORRECTED PROOF Grid geometry effects on convection in ocean climate models: a conceptual study is the 12 improvement of convection parameterization schemes, but the question of grid geometry also plays to an at- 14 mosphere model. Such ocean climate models have mostly structured, coarsely resolved grids. 15

Kuhlbrodt, Till

286

Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models Received: 21 November 2002 / Accepted: 11 March 2003 / Published online: 17 June 2003  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the models. The range of simulated polar warming in the Arctic is from 1.5 to 4.5 times the global mean among models that the Arctic warms more than subpolar regions when subject to increasing levels hemispheres the range of warming across global climate models is considerable, with the range of warm- ing

Bitz, Cecilia

287

Climate Change Impacts for Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment Part 2. Models and Validation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

As CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how a changing climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the conterminous United States using a suite of climate change predictions from General Circulation Models (GCMs) as described in Part 1. Here we describe the agriculture model EPIC and the HUMUS water model and validate them with historical crop yields and streamflow data. We compare EPIC simulated grain and forage crop yields with historical crop yields from the US Department of Agriculture and find an acceptable level of agreement for this study. The validation of HUMUS simulated streamflow with estimates of natural streamflow from the US Geological Survey shows that the model is able to reproduce significant relationships and capture major trends.

Thomson, Allison M.; Rosenberg, Norman J.; Izaurralde, R Cesar C.; Brown, Robert A.

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

A Global View on the Wind Sea and Swell Climate and Variability from ERA-40 ALVARO SEMEDO  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Global View on the Wind Sea and Swell Climate and Variability from ERA-40 ALVARO SEMEDO 2010) ABSTRACT In this paper a detailed global climatology of wind-sea and swell parameters, based on the 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) wave reanalysis

Haak, Hein

289

Transient Climate Response in a Two-Layer Energy-Balance Model. Part I: Analytical Solution and Parameter Calibration Using CMIP5 AOGCM Experiments  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

analyzing the global thermal properties of atmosphere­ocean coupled general circulation models (AOGCMs perturbation, some EBMs assume that the thermal energy balance of the climate system is only expressedTransient Climate Response in a Two-Layer Energy-Balance Model. Part I: Analytical Solution

Ribes, Aurélien

290

Potential Climate Change Impacts on Wind Resources in Oklahoma: a Focus on Future Energy Output.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The current study focused on the potential climate change effects on wind resources in Oklahoma. This was a quantitative study that involved Global Climate ModelÖ (more)

Dryden, James Mack, Jr.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

291

Probability distributions for regional climate change from uncertain global mean warming and uncertain scaling relationship Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11(3), 10971114, 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Probability distributions for regional climate change from uncertain global mean warming of probability distributions for regional climate change from uncertain global mean warming and an uncertain/precipitation per degree global mean warming. Each scaling variable is assumed to be normally distributed

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

292

Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)1! Ben Kravitz,1*  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

! 1 Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)1! 2! Ben, MSIN K9-24, Richland, WA32! 99352, ben.kravitz@pnnl.gov.33! #12;! 2 Abstract34! Solar geoengineering of the Geoengineering Model37! Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), in which 12 climate models have simulated the climate38

Robock, Alan

293

Global climate change, land management, and biosolids application to semiarid grasslands  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Global climate change combined with improper land management, including over-grazing, can lead to a severe reduction in plant cover and soil productivity. This process is especially common in arid and semiarid regions with sparse vegetation cover. New and innovative methods of land management are needed to restore and maintain these ecosystems in a productive and sustainable state. Research conducted in New Mexico on the Rio Puerco Resource Area and the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge has shown that biosolids (municipal sewage sludge) application to semiarid grasslands can increase soil nutrient availability, increase plant cover and productivity, and decrease surface runoff and soil erosion without harming environmental quality.

Loftin, S.R. [Forest Service, Albuquerque, NM (United States). Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station

1995-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

294

An improved lake model for climate simulations: Model structure, evaluation, and sensitivity analyses in CESM1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

into the numerical weather prediction model COSMO, BorealCurrent numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, regionalof lakes in numerical weather prediction and climate models:

Subin, Z.M.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

295

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ...

Monier, Erwan

296

New Gravity Wave Treatments for GISS Climate Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Previous versions of GISS climate models have either used formulations of Rayleigh drag to represent unresolved gravity wave interactions with the model-resolved flow or have included a rather complicated treatment of ...

Geller, Marvin A.

297

Climate response to tropical cyclone-induced ocean mixing in an1 Earth system model of intermediate complexity2  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climate response to tropical cyclone-induced ocean mixing in an1 Earth system model of intermediate system model of intermediate complexity. The parameterization is based on21 previously published global. Abstract19 We introduce a parameterization of ocean mixing by tropical cyclones (TCs) into20 an Earth

298

The rapidly evolving field of decadal climate prediction, using initialized climate models to produce time-evolving predictions of regional climate, is producing new results for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, and it is on those time scales of interest to water managers that decadal climate prediction is being appliedThe rapidly evolving field of decadal climate prediction, using initialized climate models to produce time-evolving predictions of regional climate, is producing new results for predictions

299

Climate Change Modeling and Downscaling Issues and Methodological Perspectives for the U.S. National Climate Assessment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This is the full workshop report for the modeling workshop we did for the National Climate Assessment, with DOE support.

Janetos, Anthony C.; Collins, William D.; Wuebbles, D.J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah; Hayhoe, Katharine; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Hurtt, George

2012-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

300

Global Climate Change and the Unique Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Addressing the challenges posed by global climate change will eventually require the active participation of all industrial sectors and consumers on the planet. To date, however, most efforts to address climate change have focused on only a few sectors of the economy (e.g., refineries and fossil-fired electric power plants) and a handful of large industrialized nations. While useful as a starting point, these efforts must be expanded to include other sectors of the economy and other nations. The transportation sector presents some unique challenges, with its nearly exclusive dependence on petroleum based products as a fuel source coupled with internal combustion engines as the prime mover. Reducing carbon emissions from transportation systems is unlikely to be solely accomplished by traditional climate mitigation policies that place a price on carbon. Our research shows that price signals alone are unlikely to fundamentally alter the demand for energy services or to transform the way energy services are provided in the transportation sector. We believe that a technological revolution will be necessary to accomplish the significant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector.

Dooley, J.J.; Geffen, C.A.; Edmonds, J.A.

2002-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Modeling of Oceanic Gas Hydrate Instability and Methane Release in Response to Climate Change  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Paleooceanographic evidence has been used to postulate that methane from oceanic hydrates may have had a significant role in regulating global climate, implicating global oceanic deposits of methane gas hydrate as the main culprit in instances of rapid climate change that have occurred in the past. However, the behavior of contemporary oceanic methane hydrate deposits subjected to rapid temperature changes, like those predicted under future climate change scenarios, is poorly understood. To determine the fate of the carbon stored in these hydrates, we performed simulations of oceanic gas hydrate accumulations subjected to temperature changes at the seafloor and assessed the potential for methane release into the ocean. Our modeling analysis considered the properties of benthic sediments, the saturation and distribution of the hydrates, the ocean depth, the initial seafloor temperature, and for the first time, estimated the effect of benthic biogeochemical activity. The results show that shallow deposits--such as those found in arctic regions or in the Gulf of Mexico--can undergo rapid dissociation and produce significant methane fluxes of 2 to 13 mol/yr/m{sup 2} over a period of decades, and release up to 1,100 mol of methane per m{sup 2} of seafloor in a century. These fluxes may exceed the ability of the seafloor environment (via anaerobic oxidation of methane) to consume the released methane or sequester the carbon. These results will provide a source term to regional or global climate models in order to assess the coupling of gas hydrate deposits to changes in the global climate.

Reagan, Matthew; Reagan, Matthew T.; Moridis, George J.

2008-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

302

Graduate Opportunities in Earth Systems Modeling and Climate Impacts on Hydrology and Water Resources  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Graduate Opportunities in Earth Systems Modeling and Climate Impacts on Hydrology and Water research assistantships available in the general area of earth systems modeling and climate impacts

303

LEDS Global Partnership in Action: Advancing Climate-Resilient Low Emission Development Around the World (Fact Sheet)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Many countries around the globe are designing and implementing low emission development strategies (LEDS). These LEDS seek to achieve social, economic, and environmental development goals while reducing long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increasing resiliency to climate change impacts. The LEDS Global Partnership (LEDS GP) harnesses the collective knowledge and resources of more than 120 countries and international donor and technical organizations to strengthen climate-resilient low emission development efforts around the world.

Not Available

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

304

Estimating present climate in a warming world: a model-based approach  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Weather services base their operational definitions of 'present' climate on past observations, using a 30-year normal period such as 1961-1990 or 1971-2000. In a world with ongoing global warming, however, past data give a biased estimate of the actual present-day climate. Here we propose to correct this bias with a 'delta change' method, in which model-simulated climate changes and observed global mean temperature changes are used to extrapolate past observations forward in time, to make them representative of present or future climate conditions. In a hindcast test for the years 1991-2002, the method works well for temperature, with a clear improvement in verification statistics compared to the case in which the hindcast is formed directly from the observations for 1961-1990. However, no improvement is found for precipitation, for which the signal-to-noise ratio between expected anthropogenic changes and interannual variability is much lower than for temperature. An application of the method to the present (around the year 2007) climate suggests that, as a geographical average over land areas excluding Antarctica, 8-9 months per year and 8-9 years per decade can be expected to be warmer than the median for 1971-2000. Along with the overall warming, a substantial increase in the frequency of warm extremes at the expense of cold extremes of monthly-to-annual temperature is expected.

Raeisaenen, J.; Ruokolainen, L. [University of Helsinki (Finland). Division of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysics

2008-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

305

Climate Determinism Revisited: Multiple Equilibria in a Complex Climate Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Multiple equilibria in a coupled oceanĖatmosphereĖsea ice general circulation model (GCM) of an aquaplanet with many degrees of freedom are studied. Three different stable states are found for exactly the same set of ...

Ferreira, David

306

Climate system modeling on massively parallel systems: LDRD Project 95-ERP-47 final report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Global warming, acid rain, ozone depletion, and biodiversity loss are some of the major climate-related issues presently being addressed by climate and environmental scientists. Because unexpected changes in the climate could have significant effect on our economy, it is vitally important to improve the scientific basis for understanding and predicting the earth`s climate. The impracticality of modeling the earth experimentally in the laboratory together with the fact that the model equations are highly nonlinear has created a unique and vital role for computer-based climate experiments. However, today`s computer models, when run at desired spatial and temporal resolution and physical complexity, severely overtax the capabilities of our most powerful computers. Parallel processing offers significant potential for attaining increased performance and making tractable simulations that cannot be performed today. The principal goals of this project have been to develop and demonstrate the capability to perform large-scale climate simulations on high-performance computing systems (using methodology that scales to the systems of tomorrow), and to carry out leading-edge scientific calculations using parallelized models. The demonstration platform for these studies has been the 256-processor Cray-T3D located at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Our plan was to undertake an ambitious program in optimization, proof-of-principle and scientific study. These goals have been met. We are now regularly using massively parallel processors for scientific study of the ocean and atmosphere, and preliminary parallel coupled ocean/atmosphere calculations are being carried out as well. Furthermore, our work suggests that it should be possible to develop an advanced comprehensive climate system model with performance scalable to the teraflops range. 9 refs., 3 figs.

Mirin, A.A.; Dannevik, W.P.; Chan, B.; Duffy, P.B.; Eltgroth, P.G.; Wehner, M.F.

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

307

Global Distribution and Climate Forcing of Marine Organic Aerosol - Part 2: Effects on Cloud Properties and Radiative Forcing  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A series of simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with a 7-mode Modal Aerosol Model were conducted to assess the changes in cloud microphysical properties and radiative forcing resulting from marine organic aerosols. Model simulations show that the anthropogenic aerosol indirect forcing (AIF) predicted by CAM5 is decreased in absolute magnitude by up to 0.09 Wm{sup -2} (7 %) when marine organic aerosols are included. Changes in the AIF from marine organic aerosols are associated with small global increases in low-level incloud droplet number concentration and liquid water path of 1.3 cm{sup -3} (1.5 %) and 0.22 gm{sup -2} (0.5 %), respectively. Areas especially sensitive to changes in cloud properties due to marine organic aerosol include the Southern Ocean, North Pacific Ocean, and North Atlantic Ocean, all of which are characterized by high marine organic emission rates. As climate models are particularly sensitive to the background aerosol concentration, this small but non-negligible change in the AIF due to marine organic aerosols provides a notable link for ocean-ecosystem marine low-level cloud interactions and may be a candidate for consideration in future earth system models.

Gantt, Brett; Xu, Jun; Meskhidze, N.; Zhang, Yang; Nenes, Athanasios; Ghan, Steven J.; Liu, Xiaohong; Easter, Richard C.; Zaveri, Rahul A.

2012-07-25T23:59:59.000Z

308

What does the 2įC Target Imply for a Global Climate Agreement in 2020? The LIMITS Study on Durban Action Platform Scenarios  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper provides a novel and comprehensive model?based assessment of possible outcomes of the Durban Platform negotiations with a focus on emissions reduction requirements, the consistency with the 2įC target and global economic impacts. The Durban Action scenarios investigated in the LIMITS studyóall assuming the implementation of comprehensive global emission reductions after 2020, but assuming different 2020 emission reduction levels and different long?term stabilization targetsóshow that the probability of exceeding the 2įC limit increases with stabilization target from below one third for 450?470 ppm to 40?60% for 490?510 ppm in 2100. Global time?averaged economic costs of the Durban Action scenarios are limited across models, and are largely unaffected by the stringency of 2020 pledges. By contrast, the economic impact of delaying action beyond 2030 is much stronger on transitional costs. The main significance of short term action in the period 2010?2030 lies in preparing the ground for steep emissions reductions thereafter by inducing global emissions to peak and decline. The institutional challenges of all scenarios with fragmented near?term climate policy can be expected to be high as reflected in a steep rise of carbon prices and decarbonization rates until 2040. We conclude that an agreement on comprehensive emissions reductions to be implemented from 2020 onwards has particular significance for meeting long term climate policy objectives.

Kriegler, Elmar; Tavoni, Massimo; Aboumahboub, Tino; Luderer, Gunnar; Calvin, Katherine V.; DeMaere, Gauthier; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan; Rosler, Hilke; Schaeffer, Michiel; Van Vuuren, Detlef

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Final report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of the project was to conduct model simulations for past and future climate change with respect to the proposed Yucca Mtn. repository. The authors report on three main topics, one of which is boundary conditions for paleo-hindcast studies. These conditions are necessary for the conduction of three to four model simulations. The boundary conditions have been prepared for future runs. The second topic is (a) comparing the atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with observations and other GCMs; and (b) development of a better precipitation data base for the Yucca Mtn. region for comparisons with models. These tasks have been completed. The third topic is preliminary assessments of future climate change. Energy balance model (EBM) simulations suggest that the greenhouse effect will likely dominate climate change at Yucca Mtn. for the next 10,000 years. The EBM study should improve rational choice of GCM CO{sub 2} scenarios for future climate change.

Crowley, T.J.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

1994-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

310

Evaluating the Representation and Impact of Convective Processes in the NCARís Community Climate System Model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Convection and clouds affect atmospheric temperature, moisture and wind fields through the heat of condensation and evaporation and through redistributions of heat, moisture and momentum. Individual clouds have a spatial scale of less than 10 km, much smaller than the grid size of several hundred kilometers used in climate models. Therefore the effects of clouds must be approximated in terms of variables that the model can resolve. Deriving such formulations for convection and clouds has been a major challenge for the climate modeling community due to the lack of observations of cloud and microphysical properties. The objective of our DOE CCPP project is to evaluate and improve the representation of convection schemes developed by PIs in the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and study its impact on global climate simulations.

Xiaoqing Wu

2008-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

311

Evaluation of Continental Precipitation in 20th-Century Climate Simulations: The Utility of Multi-Model Statistics  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

At the request of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), simulations of 20th-century climate have been performed recently with some 20 global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. In view of its central importance for biological and socio-economic systems, model-simulated continental precipitation is evaluated relative to three observational estimates at both global and regional scales. Many models are found to display systematic biases, deviating markedly from the observed spatial variability and amplitude/phase of the seasonal cycle. However, the point-wise ensemble mean of all the models usually shows better statistical agreement with the observations than does any single model. Deficiencies of current models that may be responsible for the simulated precipitation biases as well as possible reasons for the improved estimate afforded by the multi-model ensemble mean are discussed. Implications of these results for water-resource managers also are briefly addressed.

Phillips, T J; Gleckler, P J

2005-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

A multi-resolution method for climate system modeling: application of Spherical Centroidal A multi-resolution method for climate system modeling: Application of Spherical Centroidal Voroni Tessellations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

During the next decade and beyond, climate system models will be challenged to resolve scales and processes that are far beyond their current scope. Each climate system component has its prototypical example of an unresolved process that may strongly influence the global climate system, ranging from eddy activity within ocean models, to ice streams within ice sheet models, to surface hydrological processes within land system models, to cloud processes within atmosphere models. These new demands will almost certainly result in the develop of multi-resolution schemes that are able, at least regional to faithfully simulate these fine-scale processes. Spherical Centroidal Voronoi Tessellations (SCVTs) offer one potential path toward the development of robust, multi-resolution climate system component models, SCVTs allow for the generation of high quality Voronoi diagrams and Delaunay triangulations through the use of an intuitive, user-defined density function, each of the examples provided, this method results in high-quality meshes where the quality measures are guaranteed to improve as the number of nodes is increased. Real-world examples are developed for the Greenland ice sheet and the North Atlantic ocean. Idealized examples are developed for ocean-ice shelf interaction and for regional atmospheric modeling. In addition to defining, developing and exhibiting SCVTs, we pair this mesh generation technique with a previously developed finite-volume method. Our numerical example is based on the nonlinear shallow-water equations spanning the entire surface of the sphere. This example is used to elucidate both the potential benefits of this multi-resolution method and the challenges ahead.

Ringler, Todd D [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Gunzburger, Max [FLORIDA STATE UNIV; Ju, Lili [UNIV OF SOUTH CAROLINA

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

313

Regional climate models, spatial data and extremes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

density function. f(y) = eg(y) or g(y) = log(f(y)) we are interested in the (simple) behavior of g when p from five clim forcings due to solar activity and volcanoes. Red shaded bands show the 5­95% range greenhouse gases ­ without Summary figure from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessement

Nychka, Douglas

314

Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, e.g. from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an RCP2.6-type scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in an RCP8.5-type scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.

Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Kyle, G. Page; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Havlik, Petr; van Meijl, Hans; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Popp, Alexander; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk; Wise, Marshall A.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) Ben Kravitz,1 Received 7 January 2013; revised 3 July 2013; accepted 10 July 2013. [1] Solar geoengineering Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which 12 climate models have simulated

Moore, John

316

The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed.

Lynch, Peter [Meteorology and Climate Centre, School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Dublin, Belfield (Ireland)], E-mail: Peter.Lynch@ucd.ie

2008-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

317

Scientist warns against overselling climate change Climate change forecasters should admit that they cannot predict how global warming will affect  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

that they cannot predict how global warming will affect individual countries, a leading physicist has said-of-deaths-from-ozone-predicted.html) Antarctic sea floor gives clues about effects of future global warming (/earth/environment/climatechange /5279223/Antarctic-sea-floor-gives-clues-about-affects-of-future-global-warming.html) The Vanishing Face

Stevenson, Paul

318

Aerosol, Cloud, and Climate: From Observation to Model (457th Brookhaven Lecture)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In the last 100 years, the Earth has warmed by about 1ļF, glaciers and sea ice have been melting more quickly than previously, especially during the past decade, and the level of the sea has risen about 6-8 inches worldwide. Scientists have long been investigating this phenomenon of ďglobal warming,Ē which is believed to be at least partly due to the increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the air from burning fossil fuels. Funded by DOE, teams of researchers from BNL and other national labs have been gathering data in the U.S. and internationally to build computer models of climate and weather to help in understanding general patterns, causes, and perhaps, solutions. Among many findings, researchers observed that atmospheric aerosols, minute particles in the atmosphere, can significantly affect global energy balance and climate. Directly, aerosols scatter and absorb sunlight. Indirectly, increased aerosol concentration can lead to smaller cloud droplets, changing clouds in ways that tend to cool global climate and potentially mask overall warming from man-made CO2.

Wang, Jian (Ph.D., Environmental Sciences Department) [Ph.D., Environmental Sciences Department

2010-05-12T23:59:59.000Z

319

Climate Modeling using High-Performance Computing The Center for Applied Scientific Computing (CASC) and the LLNL Climate and Carbon  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and NCAR in the development of a comprehensive, earth systems model. This model incorporates the most-performance climate models. Through the addition of relevant physical processes, we are developing an earth systems modeling capability as well. Our collaborators in climate research include the National Center

320

Regional climate model data used within the SWURVE project 2: addressing uncertainty in regional climate model data Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11(1), 10851096, 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

.Ekstrom@uea.ac.uk Abstract To aid assessments of the impact of climate change on water related activities in the case study on the impacts of climate change on specific water management activities (Kilsby, 2007). Uncertainties linked, temperature, rainfall, Europe Introduction As climate model projections are often used in climate change

Boyer, Edmond

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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321

Integrated decision support model for global sourcing  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Over the last decade, the U.S. aircraft industry has experienced increasing levels of international integration as companies seek to access global talent and resources, cut production costs, spread financial risk, and ...

Mroczkowski, Victor A. (Victor Adam)

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

322

Global manufacturing model and case studies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

provision. This research provides information that should contribute to a better understanding of being globally competitive and helps a company to be able to make a wise move against its competitors....

Kijtawesataporn, Komsun

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

Why Do Global Long-term Scenarios for Agriculture Differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. Ten global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socio-economic, climate change and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Results suggest that, once general assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines, and that several common conclusions are possible. Nonetheless, differences in basic model parameters, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. This holds for both the common reference scenario and for the various shocks applied. We conclude that agro-economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross-fertilize analyses at different scales.

von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Cai, Yongxia; Calvin, Katherine V.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Kyle, G. Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Nelson, Gerald; Sands, Ronald; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; van Meijl, Hans

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

Corporate Climate Change Adaptation.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? On-going and future climate change is universally acknowledged. Climate changeincorporating global mean temperature rise, impacts on global hydrology and ecosystems willaffect human society andÖ (more)

Herbertsson, Nicole

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

3D climate modeling of Earth-like extrasolar planets orbiting different types of host stars  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The potential habitability of a terrestrial planet is usually defined by the possible existence of liquid water on its surface. The potential presence of liquid water depends on many factors such as, most importantly, surface temperatures. The properties of the planetary atmosphere and its interaction with the radiative energy provided by the planet's host star are thereby of decisive importance. In this study we investigate the influence of different main-sequence stars upon the climate of Earth-like extrasolar planets and their potential habitability by applying a 3D Earth climate model accounting for local and dynamical processes. The calculations have been performed for planets with Earth-like atmospheres at orbital distances where the total amount of energy received from the various host stars equals the solar constant. In contrast to previous 3D modeling studies, we include the effect of ozone radiative heating upon the vertical temperature structure of the atmospheres. The global orbital mean results o...

Godolt, M; Hamann-Reinus, A; Kitzmann, D; Kunze, M; Langematz, U; von Paris, P; Patzer, A B C; Rauer, H; Stracke, B

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

Sensitivity of Tropospheric Chemical Composition to Halogen-Radical Chemistry Using a Fully Coupled Size-Resolved Multiphase Chemistry-Global Climate System: Halogen Distributions, Aerosol Composition, and Sensitivity of Climate-Relevant Gases  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Observations and model studies suggest a significant but highly non-linear role for halogens, primarily Cl and Br, in multiphase atmospheric processes relevant to tropospheric chemistry and composition, aerosol evolution, radiative transfer, weather, and climate. The sensitivity of global atmospheric chemistry to the production of marine aerosol and the associated activation and cycling of inorganic Cl and Br was tested using a size-resolved multiphase coupled chemistry/global climate model (National Center for Atmospheric Researchís Community Atmosphere Model (CAM); v3.6.33). Simulation results showed strong meridional and vertical gradients in Cl and Br species. The simulation reproduced most available observations with reasonable confidence permitting the formulation of potential mechanisms for several previously unexplained halogen phenomena including the enrichment of Br- in submicron aerosol, and the presence of a BrO maximum in the polar free troposphere. However, simulated total volatile Br mixing ratios were generally high in the troposphere. Br in the stratosphere was lower than observed due to the lack of long-lived organobromine species in the simulation. Comparing simulations using chemical mechanisms with and without reactive Cl and Br species demonstrated a significant temporal and spatial sensitivity of primary atmospheric oxidants (O3, HOx, NOx), CH4, and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCís) to halogen cycling. Simulated O3 and NOx were globally lower (65% and 35%, respectively, less in the planetary boundary layer based on median values) in simulations that included halogens. Globally, little impact was seen in SO2 and non-sea-salt SO42- processing due to halogens. Significant regional differences were evident: The lifetime of nss-SO42- was extended downwind of large sources of SO2. The burden and lifetime of DMS (and its oxidation products) were lower by a factor of 5 in simulations that included halogens, versus those without, leading to a 20% reduction in nss-SO42- in the southern hemisphere planetary boundary layer based on median values.

Long, M.; Keene, W. C.; Easter, Richard C.; Sander, Rolf; Liu, Xiaohong; Kerkweg, A.; Erickson, D.

2014-04-07T23:59:59.000Z

327

Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling (COSIM)  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

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328

Moving Toward Climate Change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

as a response to climate disruption. Even the most optimistic models forecast that if greenhouse-gas emissions Appendix 1 Solutions on the Ground 67 Appendix 2 Reliability of Trends and Forecasts 78 Literature Cited 81. In the absence of substantial reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, the climate of the Y2Y region

329

Long-Term Regional Climate Simulations Driven by Two Global Reanalyses and a GCM for the Western United States  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To take advantage of recent development in the NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5), an effort has been organized to develop and evaluate an MM5-based community regional climate model. Several modifications such as the implementation of the PNNL subgrid parameterization of orographic precipitation, representation of cloud-radiation interaction, and additional output capabilities have been made to the recently released MM5 Version 3.4. To evaluate the model, several long-term simulations have been performed over the western U.S. These simulations were driven by the NCEP/NCAR and ECMWF reanalyses respectively for 20 and 13 years beginning at 1980. The western U.S. is marked by diverse topographic features and varied climate conditions such as the maritime climate in the coastal area and the semi-arid climate in the southwest. We will present results based on two domain configurations: a nested domain with a fine domain covering the western U.S. at 40 km resolution, and a single domain at 60 km resolution with the subgrid orographic precipitation scheme applied in the western U.S. Analyses are being performed to evaluate the simulations of the averaged climate and interannual variability and examine the model sensitivity to different boundary conditions. Our analyses focus on the relationships between large-scale circulation and regional climate features, surface energy and water budgets, orographic precipitation, and hydrologic conditions within selected river basins. Regional simulations are also being performed using large-scale conditions simulated by the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model (PCM). The regional model was used to downscale the ensemble PCM climate change scenarios for periods of 10-20 years in the current and future climate. Results will be analyzed to study the impacts of greenhouse warming on regional water resources in the western U.S.

Leung, Lai R.; Bian, Xindi; Qian, Yun

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

330

Numerica: a Modeling Language for Global Optimization Pascal Van Hentenryck  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

equilibrium problems, and design problems (e.g., nu­ clear reactor design). The field of global optimizationNumerica: a Modeling Language for Global Optimization Pascal Van Hentenryck Brown University Box or to optimize a nonlinear function subject to nonlinear constraints. This includes appli­ cations

Neumaier, Arnold

331

Large Scale Simulation of Tor: Modelling a Global Passive Adversary  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Implementing global passive adversary attacks on currently deployed low latency anonymous networks designs have been developed which attempt to apply mixes to low latency traffic. The most widelyLarge Scale Simulation of Tor: Modelling a Global Passive Adversary Gavin O' Gorman and Stephen

Blott, Stephen

332

Development and evaluation of a convection scheme for use in climate models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Cumulus convection is a key process in controlling the water vapor content of the atmosphere, which is in turn the largest feedback mechanism for climate change in global climate models. Yet scant attention has been paid to designing convective representations that attempt to handle water vapor with fidelity, and even less to evaluating their performance. Here the authors attempt to address this deficiency by designing a representation of cumulus convection with close attention paid to convective water fluxes and by subjecting the scheme to rigorous tests using sounding array data. The authors maintain that such tests, in which a single-column model is forced by large-scale processes measured by or inferred from the sounding data, must be carried out over a period at least as long as the radiative-subsidence timescale--about 30 days--governing the water vapor adjustment time. The authors also argue that the observed forcing must be preconditioned to guarantee integral enthalpy conservation, else errors in the single-column prediction may be falsely attributed to convective schemes. Optimization of the new scheme`s parameters is performed using one month of data from the intensive flux array operating during the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment, with the aid of the adjoint of the linear tangent of the single-column model. Residual root-mean-square errors, after optimization, are about 15% in relative humidity and .8 K in temperature. It is difficult to reject the hypothesis that the residual errors are due to noise in the forcing. Evaluation of the convective scheme is performed using Global Atmospheric Research Program Atlantic Tropical Experiment data. The performance of the scheme is compared to that of a few other schemes used in current climate models. It is also shown that a vertical resolution better than 50 mb in pressure is necessary for accurate prediction of atmospheric water vapor.

Emanuel, K.A. [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA (United States). Program for Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate] [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA (United States). Program for Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate; Zivkovic-Rothman, M. [Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States)] [Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States)

1999-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

333

MODELING THE GLOBAL PEAKS AND COOLING SY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of assessed building energy consumption and indoor air temperature peaks. At last, the coupling of the urban energy consumption. Building uses are an important part of the global energy use thus a good conception until the year 2100 highlight a regular increase building energy consumption and indoor At last

Boyer, Edmond

334

Aerosols and clouds in chemical transport models and climate models.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Clouds exert major influences on both shortwave and longwave radiation as well as on the hydrological cycle. Accurate representation of clouds in climate models is a major unsolved problem because of high sensitivity of radiation and hydrology to cloud properties and processes, incomplete understanding of these processes, and the wide range of length scales over which these processes occur. Small changes in the amount, altitude, physical thickness, and/or microphysical properties of clouds due to human influences can exert changes in Earth's radiation budget that are comparable to the radiative forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, thus either partly offsetting or enhancing the warming due to these gases. Because clouds form on aerosol particles, changes in the amount and/or composition of aerosols affect clouds in a variety of ways. The forcing of the radiation balance due to aerosol-cloud interactions (indirect aerosol effect) has large uncertainties because a variety of important processes are not well understood precluding their accurate representation in models.

Lohmann,U.; Schwartz, S. E.

2008-03-02T23:59:59.000Z

335

Final Report for High Latitude Climate Modeling: ARM Takes Us Beyond Case Studies  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The main thrust of this project was to devise a method by which the majority of North Slope of Alaska (NSA) meteorological and radiometric data, collected on a daily basis, could be used to evaluate and improve global climate model (GCM) simulations and their parameterizations, particularly for cloud microphysics. Although the standard ARM Program sensors for a less complete suite of instruments for cloud and aerosol studies than the instruments on an intensive field program such as the 2008 Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), the advantage they offer lies in the long time base and large volume of data that covers a wide range of meteorological and climatological conditions. The challenge has been devising a method to interpret the NSA data in a practical way, so that a wide variety of meteorological conditions in all seasons can be examined with climate models. If successful, climate modelers would have a robust alternative to the usual ďcase studyĒ approach (i.e., from intensive field programs only) for testing and evaluating their parameterizationsí performance. Understanding climate change on regional scales requires a broad scientific consideration of anthropogenic influences that goes beyond greenhouse gas emissions to also include aerosol-induced changes in cloud properties. For instance, it is now clear that on small scales, human-induced aerosol plumes can exert microclimatic radiative and hydrologic forcing that rivals that of greenhouse gasĖforced warming. This project has made significant scientific progress by investigating what causes successive versions of climate models continue to exhibit errors in cloud amount, cloud microphysical and radiative properties, precipitation, and radiation balance, as compared with observations and, in particular, in Arctic regions. To find out what is going wrong, we have tested the models' cloud representation over the full range of meteorological conditions found in the Arctic using the ARM North Slope of Alaska (NSA) data.

Russell, Lynn M [Scripps/UCSD; Lubin, Dan [Scripps/UCSD

2013-06-18T23:59:59.000Z

336

GLOBAL COMPREHENSIVE MODELS IN POLITICS AND POLICYMAKING  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. In this editorial, I reflect on the role of comprehensive models, such as IAMs and earth system models (ESMs

Edwards, Paul N.

337

Local action for the global environment : municipal government participation in a voluntary climate protection program  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Cities for Climate ProtectionTM (CCP) campaign is a voluntary environmental program for municipalities, which is increasingly being applied around the world by local governments taking action on climate change. This ...

Ravin, Amelia L., 1977-

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassiveSubmittedStatus TomAbout ¬ĽLab (NewportSuccess Stories T ECapture Turbulence

339

Review: The Global Warming Reader: A Century of Writing About Climate Change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Review: The Global Warming Reader: A Century of WritingMcKibben, Bill, ed. The Global Warming Reader: A Century ofrecord of no action on global warming. Those who have done

Anderson, Byron P.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

340

Global warming from chlorofluorocarbons and their alternatives: Time scales of chemistry and climate  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and their replacements on global warming. Nature Hansen J. ,gas emissions to global warming. Nature London Amendment toNature 315, 649-652, Global warming time scales WMO (World

Ko, Malcolm K.W.; Sze, Nien Dak; Molnar, Gyula; Prather, Michael J

1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

European-Led Climate Policy versus Global Mitigation Action: Implications on  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) Isola di San Giorgio Maggiore, 30124 Venezia, Italy, Amit Kanudia, Sergey Paltsev, Ronald D. Sands and Katja Schumacher *Reprinted from Climate Change and predictions of the risks of climate change and the challenges of limiting human influence on the environment

342

Interactions between wetlands CH4 emissions and climate at global scale  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

emissions? Observations Introduction Tool Wetlands emissions [CH4 ]atmo Feedback Conclusion #12;[CO2 ]atmo e.g.: Climate (T) CO2 anthropogenic emissions wetlands CH4 emissions Under future climate change, Shindell et al. (2004) => +78% under climate change generated by 2xCO2 Introduction Tool Wetlands emissions [CH4

Canet, Léonie

343

Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmospheric Optical Depth7-1D: Vegetation Proposed New SubstationClean Communities of WesternVail GlobalPROGRAM MISSIONScienceOcean and

344

A near real-time satellite-based global drought climate data record  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) combined8th Conf. of Applied Climatology (Jan. 1993) (Anaheim, CA:the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) one are

AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

345

Short ensembles: An Efficient Method for Discerning Climate-relevant Sensitivities in Atmospheric General Circulation Models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper explores the feasibility of an experimentation strategy for investigating sensitivities in fast components of atmospheric general circulation models. The basic idea is to replace the traditional serial-in-time long-term climate integrations by representative ensembles of shorter simulations. The key advantage of the proposed method lies in its efficiency: since fewer days of simulation are needed, the computational cost is less, and because individual realizations are independent and can be integrated simultaneously, the new dimension of parallelism can dramatically reduce the turnaround time in benchmark tests, sensitivities studies, and model tuning exercises. The strategy is not appropriate for exploring sensitivity of all model features, but it is very effective in many situations. Two examples are presented using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5. The first example demonstrates that the method is capable of characterizing the model cloud and precipitation sensitivity to time step length. A nudging technique is also applied to an additional set of simulations to help understand the contribution of physics-dynamics interaction to the detected time step sensitivity. In the second example, multiple empirical parameters related to cloud microphysics and aerosol lifecycle are perturbed simultaneously in order to explore which parameters have the largest impact on the simulated global mean top-of-atmosphere radiation balance. Results show that in both examples, short ensembles are able to correctly reproduce the main signals of model sensitivities revealed by traditional long-term climate simulations for fast processes in the climate system. The efficiency of the ensemble method makes it particularly useful for the development of high-resolution, costly and complex climate models.

Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhang, Kai; Qian, Yun; Yan, Huiping; Zhao, Chun

2014-09-08T23:59:59.000Z

346

A multi-resolution method for climate system modeling: application of spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

During the next decade and beyond, climate system models will be challenged to resolve scales and processes that are far beyond their current scope. Each climate system component has its prototypical example of an unresolved process that may strongly influence the global climate system, ranging from eddy activity within ocean models, to ice streams within ice sheet models, to surface hydrological processes within land system models, to cloud processes within atmosphere models. These new demands will almost certainly result in the develop of multiresolution schemes that are able, at least regionally, to faithfully simulate these fine-scale processes. Spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellations (SCVTs) offer one potential path toward the development of a robust, multiresolution climate system model components. SCVTs allow for the generation of high quality Voronoi diagrams and Delaunay triangulations through the use of an intuitive, user-defined density function. In each of the examples provided, this method results in high-quality meshes where the quality measures are guaranteed to improve as the number of nodes is increased. Real-world examples are developed for the Greenland ice sheet and the North Atlantic ocean. Idealized examples are developed for oceanĖice shelf interaction and for regional atmospheric modeling. In addition to defining, developing, and exhibiting SCVTs, we pair this mesh generation technique with a previously developed finite-volume method. Our numerical example is based on the nonlinear, shallow water equations spanning the entire surface of the sphere. This example is used to elucidate both the potential benefits of this multiresolution method and the challenges ahead.

Ringler, Todd [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ju, Lili [University of South Carolina; Gunzburger, Max [Florida State University

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

347

RHP: HOW CLIMATE MODELS GAIN AND EXERCISE How Climate Models Gain and Exercise Authority  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-dimensional models, intermediate complexity models, general circulation models, and Earth system models. 2 www

Hulme, Mike

348

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Overview and Description of Models, Simulations and Climate Diagnostics  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) consists of a series of timeslice experiments targeting the long-term changes in atmospheric composition between 1850 and 2100, with the goal of documenting radiative forcing and the associated composition changes. Here we introduce the various simulations performed under ACCMIP and the associated model output. The ACCMIP models have a wide range of horizontal and vertical resolutions, vertical extent, chemistry schemes and interaction with radiation and clouds. While anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions were specified for all time slices in the ACCMIP protocol, it is found that the natural emissions lead to a significant range in emissions, mostly for ozone precursors. The analysis of selected present-day climate diagnostics (precipitation, temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind) reveals biases consistent with state-of-the-art climate models. The model-to-model comparison of changes in temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind between 1850 and 2000 and between 2000 and 2100 indicates mostly consistent results, but with outliers different enough to possibly affect their representation of climate impact on chemistry.

Lamarque, J.-F.; Shindell, Drew; Josse, B.; Young, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Eyring, Veronika; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Collins, W. J.; Doherty, R.; Dalsoren, S.; Faluvegi, G.; Folberth, G.; Ghan, Steven J.; Horowitz, L.; Lee, Y. H.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, Vaishali; Plummer, David; Righi, M.; Rumbold, S.; Schulz, M.; Skeie, R. B.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Voulgarakis, A.; Zeng, G.

2013-02-07T23:59:59.000Z

349

An Interactive Multi-Model for Consensus on Climate Change  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This project purports to develop a new scheme for forming consensus among alternative climate models, that give widely divergent projections as to the details of climate change, that is more intelligent than simply averaging the model outputs, or averaging with ex post facto weighting factors. The method under development effectively allows models to assimilate data from one another in run time with weights that are chosen in an adaptive training phase using 20th century data, so that the models synchronize with one another as well as with reality. An alternate approach that is being explored in parallel is the automated combination of equations from different models in an expert-system-like framework.

Kocarev, Ljupco [University of California, San Diego] [University of California, San Diego

2014-07-02T23:59:59.000Z

350

Remarks in the National Assembly of France The European Climate Foundation kindly helped arrange a discussion about global climate  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

on their internal consumption of fossil fuels. Why would China agree: to avoid fossil fuel addiction, clean up its. Implications of climate re exploitation of geophysical reservoirs of carbon: (1) coal emissions must be phased-and-trade with offsets will not work. And China and India will never accept a cap ­ why should they, as long as their per

Hansen, James E.

351

A SIMULATION MODEL FOR CANADA-US CLIMATE POLICY ANALYSIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

forecasts how energy trade between Canada and the US might change due to the policies. The results gas emissions; carbon tax; energy consumption; energy supply; energy trade Subject Terms: Climatic policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Canada and the US. A model of the combined energy

352

A size-structured food-web model for the global ocean*  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for Global Change Science (CGCS) and the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR of global environment and energy challenges, thereby contributing to informed debate about climate change reproduces global distributions of nutrients, biomass, and primary productivity, and captures the power

353

Baseline for Climate Change: Modeling Watershed Aquatic Biodiversity Relative to Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Objectives of the two-year study were to (1) establish baselines for fish and macroinvertebrate community structures in two mid-Atlantic lower Piedmont watersheds (Quantico Creek, a pristine forest watershed; and Cameron Run, an urban watershed, Virginia) that can be used to monitor changes relative to the impacts related to climate change in the future; (2) create mathematical expressions to model fish species richness and diversity, and macroinvertebrate taxa and macroinvertebrate functional feeding group taxa richness and diversity that can serve as a baseline for future comparisons in these and other watersheds in the mid-Atlantic region; and (3) heighten peopleís awareness, knowledge and understanding of climate change and impacts on watersheds in a laboratory experience and interactive exhibits, through internship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, a week-long teacher workshop, and a website about climate change and watersheds. Mathematical expressions modeled fish and macroinvertebrate richness and diversity accurately well during most of the six thermal seasons where sample sizes were robust. Additionally, hydrologic models provide the basis for estimating flows under varying meteorological conditions and landscape changes. Continuations of long-term studies are requisite for accurately teasing local human influences (e.g. urbanization and watershed alteration) from global anthropogenic impacts (e.g. climate change) on watersheds. Effective and skillful translations (e.g. annual potential exposure of 750,000 people to our inquiry-based laboratory activities and interactive exhibits in Virginia) of results of scientific investigations are valuable ways of communicating information to the general public to enhance their understanding of climate change and its effects in watersheds.

Maurakis, Eugene G

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

354

A Hierarchical Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tools for predicting the evolution of the climate system. Through decades of development, GCMs have demonstrated useful skill in simulating climate at continental to global scales. However, large uncertainties remain in projecting climate change at regional scales, which limit our ability to inform decisions on climate change adaptation and mitigation. To bridge this gap, different modeling approaches including nested regional climate models (RCMs), global stretch-grid models, and global high-resolution atmospheric models have been used to provide regional climate simulations (Leung et al. 2003). In previous efforts to evaluate these approaches, isolating their relative merits was not possible because factors such as dynamical frameworks, physics parameterizations, and model resolutions were not systematically constrained. With advances in high performance computing, it is now feasible to run coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs at horizontal resolution comparable to what RCMs use today. Global models with local refinement using unstructured grids have become available for modeling regional climate (e.g., Rauscher et al. 2012; Ringler et al. 2013). While they offer opportunities to improve climate simulations, significant efforts are needed to test their veracity for regional-scale climate simulations.

Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ringler, Todd; Collins, William D.; Taylor, Mark; Ashfaq, Moetasim

2013-08-20T23:59:59.000Z

355

The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) Version 2: Model Description and Baseline Evaluation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) is designed for analyzing the global environmental changes that may result from anthropogenic causes, quantifying the uncertainties associated with the projected changes, and ...

Sokolov, Andrei P.

357

A Gaussian graphical model approach to climate networks  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Distinguishing between direct and indirect connections is essential when interpreting network structures in terms of dynamical interactions and stability. When constructing networks from climate data the nodes are usually defined on a spatial grid. The edges are usually derived from a bivariate dependency measure, such as Pearson correlation coefficients or mutual information. Thus, the edges indistinguishably represent direct and indirect dependencies. Interpreting climate data fields as realizations of Gaussian Random Fields (GRFs), we have constructed networks according to the Gaussian Graphical Model (GGM) approach. In contrast to the widely used method, the edges of GGM networks are based on partial correlations denoting direct dependencies. Furthermore, GRFs can be represented not only on points in space, but also by expansion coefficients of orthogonal basis functions, such as spherical harmonics. This leads to a modified definition of network nodes and edges in spectral space, which is motivated from an atmospheric dynamics perspective. We construct and analyze networks from climate data in grid point space as well as in spectral space, and derive the edges from both Pearson and partial correlations. Network characteristics, such as mean degree, average shortest path length, and clustering coefficient, reveal that the networks posses an ordered and strongly locally interconnected structure rather than small-world properties. Despite this, the network structures differ strongly depending on the construction method. Straightforward approaches to infer networks from climate data while not regarding any physical processes may contain too strong simplifications to describe the dynamics of the climate system appropriately.

Zerenner, Tanja, E-mail: tanjaz@uni-bonn.de [Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Auf dem HŁgel 20, 53121 Bonn (Germany)] [Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Auf dem HŁgel 20, 53121 Bonn (Germany); Friederichs, Petra; Hense, Andreas [Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Auf dem HŁgel 20, 53121 Bonn (Germany) [Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Auf dem HŁgel 20, 53121 Bonn (Germany); Interdisciplinary Center for Complex Systems, University of Bonn, BrŁhler StraŖe 7, 53119 Bonn (Germany); Lehnertz, Klaus [Department of Epileptology, University of Bonn, Sigmund-Freud-StraŖe 25, 53105 Bonn (Germany) [Department of Epileptology, University of Bonn, Sigmund-Freud-StraŖe 25, 53105 Bonn (Germany); Helmholtz Institute for Radiation and Nuclear Physics, University of Bonn, Nussallee 14-16, 53115 Bonn (Germany); Interdisciplinary Center for Complex Systems, University of Bonn, BrŁhler StraŖe 7, 53119 Bonn (Germany)

2014-06-15T23:59:59.000Z

358

Climate change uncertainty evaluation, impacts modelling and resilience of farm scale dynamics in Scotland†  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

evidence of how primary production components of agriculture in Scotland may change under a future climate. The work used a generic Integrated Modelling Framework to structure the following sequence of investigations: Evaluate a Regional Climate Model...

Rivington, Michael

2011-06-28T23:59:59.000Z

359

Improving the Simulation of the West African Monsoon Using the MIT Regional Climate Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper presents an evaluation of the performance of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) regional climate model (MRCM) in simulating the West African monsoon. The MRCM is built on the Regional Climate Model, ...

Im, Eun-Soon

360

The impact of tropical cyclones (TC) on global climate is still debated. They rapidly mix the water column beneath them, bringing cold water to the surface.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of Climate, 21, 638 Sriver & Huber, 2007, Observational evidence for an ocean heat pump induced by tropicalThe impact of tropical cyclones (TC) on global climate is still debated. They rapidly mix the water column beneath them, bringing cold water to the surface. One way to parameterise this process

Jones, Peter JS

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Tales from the climate-change crossroads Four books by prominent global-warming pundits illustrate that exhortation and authority are not  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and for questionable behaviour revealed in e-mail disclosures the climate crisis". He provides a colourful overview of low-carbon technologies -- wind, solar, nuclear behavior and thinking". Again, he does not say how a new global consciousness is to be delivered. Instead

Colorado at Boulder, University of

362

Conceptual stochastic climate models Peter Imkeller  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to be thoroughly inve- stigated but too simple to be treated as quantitatively accurate, through Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) which represent some clima- te subsystems (e.g. the ocean

Monahan, Adam Hugh

363

Climate Projections Using Bayesian Model Averaging and Space-Time Dependence  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climate Projections Using Bayesian Model Averaging and Space-Time Dependence K. Sham Bhat, Murali Haran, Adam Terando, and Klaus Keller. Abstract Projections of future climatic changes are a key input to the design of climate change mitiga- tion and adaptation strategies. Current climate change projections

Haran, Murali

364

Global Biofuels Modeling and Land Use  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Biofuels Modeling and Land Use DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Strategic Analysis & Cross-cutting Sustainability March 25 2015 Gbadebo Oladosu...

365

Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10Ė25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.

Schmitz, Christoph; van Meijl, Hans; Kyle, G. Page; Nelson, Gerald C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gurgel, Angelo; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; von Lampe, Martin; Wise, Marshall A.; Blanc, Elodie; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Valin, Hugo

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

Boyer, Edmond

367

Carbon-nitrogen interactions regulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks: results from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

forests indi- cates that the model representation of competition between plants and microbes for new mineral nitrogen resources is reasonable. Our results suggest a weaker dependence of net land carbon flux on soil moisture changes in tropical regions... National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6335, USA 2Department of Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543-1543, USA 3Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research...

Thornton, P. E.; Doney, S. C.; Lindsay, Keith; Moore, J. K.; Mahowald, N. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Fung, I.; Lamarque, J. F.; Feddema, Johannes J.

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

368

Duke, R. D. and Kammen, D. M. (2003) "Energy for Development: Solar Home Systems in Africa and Global Carbon Emissions", Climate Change for Africa: Science,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Duke, R. D. and Kammen, D. M. (2003) "Energy for Development: Solar Home Systems in Africa and Global Carbon Emissions", Climate Change for Africa: Science, Technology, Policy and Capacity Building: Solar Home Systems in Africa and Global Carbon Emissions Richard D. Duke* and Daniel M. Kammen

Kammen, Daniel M.

369

Sources for Global Climate Change Information (updated: March 17, 2011) The following information is provided for those who wish to learn more about this issue. These  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the role of greenhouse gases in maintaining Earth's energy balance, and the role of additional of Global Climate Change on the United States (NRC, 2008) http://www.ostp.gov/galleriesINSTC Reports/Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States.pdf (copy this into browser) http

Howat, Ian M.

370

THE APPLICATION OF A STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING PROCESS TO DERIVE 21{sup ST} CENTURY RIVER FLOW PREDICTIONS USING A GLOBAL CLIMATE SIMULATION  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The ability of water managers to maintain adequate supplies in coming decades depends, in part, on future weather conditions, as climate change has the potential to alter river flows from their current values, possibly rendering them unable to meet demand. Reliable climate projections are therefore critical to predicting the future water supply for the United States. These projections cannot be provided solely by global climate models (GCMs), however, as their resolution is too coarse to resolve the small-scale climate changes that can affect hydrology, and hence water supply, at regional to local scales. A process is needed to Ďdownscaleí the GCM results to the smaller scales and feed this into a surface hydrology model to help determine the ability of rivers to provide adequate flow to meet future needs. We apply a statistical downscaling to GCM projections of precipitation and temperature through the use of a scaling method. This technique involves the correction of the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of the GCM-derived temperature and precipitation results for the 20{sup th} century, and the application of the same correction to 21{sup st} century GCM projections. This is done for three meteorological stations located within the Coosa River basin in northern Georgia, and is used to calculate future river flow statistics for the upper Coosa River. Results are compared to the historical Coosa River flow upstream from Georgia Power Companyís Hammond coal-fired power plant and to flows calculated with the original, unscaled GCM results to determine the impact of potential changes in meteorology on future flows.

Werth, D.; Chen, K. F.

2013-08-22T23:59:59.000Z

371

SIMPLE CLIMATE MODELS 10.1 Abstract  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

principles (e. g. the principle of least action in me­ chanics or Fermat's principle of least time in optics requires: I 0 \\Gamma F \\Gamma E 0 = 0 (10.1) I 1 + F \\Gamma E 1 = 0 (10.2) In this model, I 0 and I 1. It is hypothesized that the rate of entropy production (F=T 1 \\Gamma F=T 0 ) within the #12; 309 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0

Withers, Paul

372

Research Note Impacts of climate change on  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Research Note Impacts of climate change on forestry in Scotland ­ a synopsis of spatial modelling research Duncan Ray January 2008 Climate change is now one of the greatest global challenges, and research by climate change. This Research Note provides an initial synopsis of the likely impacts, with preliminary

373

Development of Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerant Solutions for Commercial Refrigeration Systems using a Life Cycle Climate Performance Design Tool  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Commercial refrigeration systems are known to be prone to high leak rates and to consume large amounts of electricity. As such, direct emissions related to refrigerant leakage and indirect emissions resulting from primary energy consumption contribute greatly to their Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP). In this paper, an LCCP design tool is used to evaluate the performance of a typical commercial refrigeration system with alternative refrigerants and minor system modifications to provide lower Global Warming Potential (GWP) refrigerant solutions with improved LCCP compared to baseline systems. The LCCP design tool accounts for system performance, ambient temperature, and system load; system performance is evaluated using a validated vapor compression system simulation tool while ambient temperature and system load are devised from a widely used building energy modeling tool (EnergyPlus). The LCCP design tool also accounts for the change in hourly electricity emission rate to yield an accurate prediction of indirect emissions. The analysis shows that conventional commercial refrigeration system life cycle emissions are largely due to direct emissions associated with refrigerant leaks and that system efficiency plays a smaller role in the LCCP. However, as a transition occurs to low GWP refrigerants, the indirect emissions become more relevant. Low GWP refrigerants may not be suitable for drop-in replacements in conventional commercial refrigeration systems; however some mixtures may be introduced as transitional drop-in replacements. These transitional refrigerants have a significantly lower GWP than baseline refrigerants and as such, improved LCCP. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the tradeoffs between refrigerant GWP, efficiency and capacity.

Abdelaziz, Omar [ORNL] [ORNL; Fricke, Brian A [ORNL] [ORNL; Vineyard, Edward Allan [ORNL] [ORNL

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

CliCrop: a Crop Water-Stress and Irrigation Demand Model for an Integrated Global Assessment Model Approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper describes the use of the CliCrop model in the context of climate change general assessment

Fant, C.A.

375

Pluralistic Modelling Approaches to Simulating Climate-Land Change Interactions in East Africa  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with atmospheric trends such as greenhouse gas concentrations, to loop back to regional and global climate change dynamics (Giorgi and Mearns 1999). Developing robust forecasts of land use change is essential in the proper simulation of land-climate interactions. Forecasts of land use at regional scales require several

376

Does the Danube exist? Versions of reality given by various regional climate models and climatological datasets  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of several regional climate models (RCMs) nested into the same run of the same Atmospheric Global Circulation Model (AGCM) regarding their representation of the statistical properties of the hydrological balance of the Danube river basin for 1961-1990. We also consider the datasets produced by the driving AGCM, from the ECMWF and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses. The hydrological balance is computed by integrating the precipitation and evaporation fields over the area of interest. Large discrepancies exist among RCMs for the monthly climatology as well as for the mean and variability of the annual balances, and only few datasets are consistent with the observed discharge values of the Danube at its Delta, even if the driving AGCM provides itself an excellent estimate. Since the considered approach relies on the mass conservation principle and bypasses the details of the air-land interface modeling, we propose that the atmospheric components of RCMs still face diffic...

Lucarini, V; Kriegerova, I; Speranza, A; Danihlik, Robert; Kriegerova, Ida; Lucarini, Valerio; Speranza, Antonio

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

377

4, 40694124, 2007 Global-scale  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

into evapotranspiration and total runoff. We estimate that global groundwater recharge was 12 666 km3 /yr for the climateHESSD 4, 4069­4124, 2007 Global-scale modeling of groundwater recharge P. D¨oll and K. Fiedler System Sciences Global-scale modeling of groundwater recharge P. D¨oll and K. Fiedler Institute

Boyer, Edmond

378

Chemistryclimate model simulations of twenty-first century stratospheric climate  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

recovery causes a warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar lower stratosphere in summer with enhanced to an overall global cooling of the stratosphere in the simulations (0.59 6 0.07 K decade21 at 10 hPa), ozone cooling above. The rate of warming correlates with the rate of ozone recovery projected by the models and

Wirosoetisno, Djoko

379

Development of Frameworks for Robust Regional Climate Modeling PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Moetasim Ashfaq  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

goals of climate modeling. Water supports the ecosystems as well as a wide range of human activities to improve region- al predictions of the hydrologic cycle to address climate change impacts, adaptationDevelopment of Frameworks for Robust Regional Climate Modeling PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Moetasim

380

A climate model intercomparison at the dynamics level Karsten Steinhaeuser Anastasios A. Tsonis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A climate model intercomparison at the dynamics level Karsten Steinhaeuser · Anastasios A. Tsonis-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013 Abstract Until now, climate model intercomparison has focused primarily on annual they generate, we have adopted a new approach based on climate networks. We have considered 28 pre

Minnesota, University of

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

The climate impacts of high-speed rail and air transportation : a global comparative analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Growing concerns about the energy use and climate impacts of the transportation sector have prompted policymakers to consider a variety of options to meet the future mobility needs of the world's population, while ...

Clewlow, Regina Ruby Lee

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

The economic impact of global climate and tropospheric oxone on world agricultural production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The objective of my thesis is to analyze the economic impact on agriculture production from changes in climate and tropospheric ozone, and related policy interventions. The analysis makes use of the Emissions Prediction ...

Wang, Xiaodu

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

383

Crop water stress under climate change uncertainty : global policy and regional risk  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Fourty percent of all crops grown in the world today are grown using irrigation, and shifting precipitation patterns due to climate change are viewed as a major threat to food security. This thesis examines, in the framework ...

Gueneau, Arthur

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Global Priority Conservation Areas in the Face of 21st Century Climate Change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable...

Li, Junsheng; Lin, Xin; Chen, Anping; Peterson, A. Townsend; Ma, Keping; Bertzky, Monika; Ciais, Philippe; Kapos, Valerie; Peng, Changhui; Poulter, Benjamin

2013-01-24T23:59:59.000Z

385

Carbon-nitrogen interactions regulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks: results from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2009 P. E. Thornton et al. : Carbon-nitrogen interactionsregulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks Monfray, P. ,T. H. : A global ocean carbon climatology: Results from

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

Loss of Cherished Places -- Global Climate Change in Maryland: Loss at the Margins of Place  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Predicting species extinction in response to global warminghave led to species extinction. Above: The Appalachian Trailspecies may have less chance to migrate, and may face extinction.

Myers, David

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and communications, in Ocean Engineering Planning and Designmicropro?ler, Engineering in the Ocean Environment, Ocean íengineering diagnostic data will be transmitted. 5. GLOBAL OCEAN

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

function. Lastly, the new methodology is applied to an industrial computer code that simulates the nuclear with scalar input variables. For example, in the nuclear engineering domain, global SA tools have been applied (Helton et al. [7]), environmental model of dose calculations (Iooss et al. [10]), reactor dosimetry

Boyer, Edmond

389

Parallel Seismic Ray Tracing in a Global Earth Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Parallel Seismic Ray Tracing in a Global Earth Model Marc Grunberg * , Stéphane Genaud of the Earth interior, and seismic tomogra- phy is a means to improve knowledge in this #28;eld. In order present in this paper the de- sign of a software program implement- ing a fast seismic ray

Genaud, Stéphane

390

Mercury exosphere I. Global circulation model of its sodium component  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Mercury exosphere I. Global circulation model of its sodium component Francois Leblanc a,*, R 2010 Accepted 27 April 2010 Available online 5 May 2010 Keywords: Mercury, Atmosphere Aeronomy a b s t r a c t Our understanding of Mercury's sodium exosphere has improved considerably in the last 5

Johnson, Robert E.

391

Climate mitigationís impact on global and regional electric power sector water use in the 21st Century  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Over the course of this coming century, global electricity use is expected to grow at least five fold and if stringent greenhouse gas emissions controls are in place the growth could be more than seven fold from current levels. Given that the electric power sector represents the second largest anthropogenic use of water and given growing concerns about the nature and extent of future water scarcity driven by population growth and a changing climate, significant concern has been expressed about the electricity sectorís use of water going forward. In this paper, the authors demonstrate that an often overlooked but absolutely critical issue that needs to be taken into account in discussions about the sustainability of the electric sectorís water use going forward is the tremendous turn over in electricity capital stock that will occur over the course of this century; i.e., in the scenarios examined here more than 80% of global electricity production in the year 2050 is from facilities that have not yet been built. The authors show that because of the large scale changes in the global electricity system, the water withdrawal intensity of electricity production is likely to drop precipitously with the result being relatively constant water withdrawals over the course of the century even in the face of the large growth in electricity usage. The ability to cost effectively reduce the water intensity of power plants with carbon dioxide capture and storage systems in particular is key to constraining overall global water use.

Dooley, James J.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan

2013-08-05T23:59:59.000Z

392

A model for simulation of the climate and hydrology of the Great Lakes basin  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. One factor that makes the net supply of water (precipitation minus evaporation) to the Great Lakes troublesome are the tendency for unrealistically low pressure at mean sea level and for persistent heavy low stratus clouds. INDEX TERMS: 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (3309); 1655 Global Change: Water cycles

393

Climate change and uncertainty in ecological niche modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

enhance regional climate change impact studies." Eos Trans.hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada,of a century of climate change on small-mammal communities

Alvarez, Otto

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

394

Paleoproterozoic snowball Earth: Extreme climatic and geochemical global change and its  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

biological productivity, melting of the oceanic ice would also have induced a cyanobacterial bloom, leading iron formations and cap carbonates. Although global glaciation would have dras- tically curtailed glaciation: An ice-albedo feedback will drive a run-away glaciation (8) resulting in 500≠1,500 m of global

395

World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3): Multi-Model Dataset Archive at PCMDI (Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison)  

DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

In response to a proposed activity of the WCRP's Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM),PCMDI volunteered to collect model output contributed by leading modeling centers around the world. Climate model output from simulations of the past, present and future climate was collected by PCMDI mostly during the years 2005 and 2006, and this archived data constitutes phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). In part, the WGCM organized this activity to enable those outside the major modeling centers to perform research of relevance to climate scientists preparing the Fourth Asssessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC was established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Program to assess scientific information on climate change. The IPCC publishes reports that summarize the state of the science. This unprecedented collection of recent model output is officially known as the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. It is meant to serve IPCC's Working Group 1, which focuses on the physical climate system - atmosphere, land surface, ocean and sea ice - and the choice of variables archived at the PCMDI reflects this focus. A more comprehensive set of output for a given model may be available from the modeling center that produced it. As of November 2007, over 35 terabytes of data were in the archive and over 303 terabytes of data had been downloaded among the more than 1200 registered users. Over 250 journal articles, based at least in part on the dataset, have been published or have been accepted for peer-reviewed publication. Countries from which models have been gathered include Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany and Korea, Italy, Japan, Norway, Russia, Great Britain and the United States. Models, variables, and documentation are collected and stored. Check http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/data_status_tables.htm to see at a glance the output that is available. (Description taken from http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php)

396

Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) Ben Kravitz,1 geoengineering--deliberate reduction in the amount of solar radiation retained by the Earth--has been proposed present results from Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which 12

Robock, Alan

397

Global instability in a Sellers-type model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Ghil-Sellers energy balance model of Earth's climate, features -- for a considerable range of the solar intensity -- two stable climate states (a warm and a cold snowball Earth), where the bistability results from the celebrated ice-albedo feedback. The unstable solution is obtained and characterized in this paper. We find such unstable states by applying for the first time in a geophysical context the so-called edge tracking method that has been used for studying multiple coexisting states in shear flows. We examine robustness, efficiency, and accuracy properties of the edge tracking algorithm. We find that the procedure is the most efficient when taking a single bisection per cycle. Due to the strong diffusivity of the system trajectories of transient dynamics, initialized between the stable states with respect to the mean temperature, are confined to the heteroclininc trajectory, one which connects the fixed unstable and stable states, after relatively short transient times. This constraint dictates a ...

Bodai, Tamas; Lunkeit, Frank; Boschi, Robert

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

A Model of Success: The Carnegie Institute for Global Ecology  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Carnegie Institute for Global Ecology Kirstin Weeks, DavidInstitute for Global Ecology, the answer is an unquali? edremarkable about the Global Ecology building is not only how

Weeks, Kirstin; Lehrer, David; Bean, Jonathan

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

S. A. Grodsky (2005), Sea level rise and the warming of thecontributions to sea level rise, Oceanography, 24, 112Ė121,acceleration in global sea-level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett. ,

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast (MEC) Region.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and wastewater processing plants are located at critical low elevations. They are exposed to coastal or riverine cities in the US and the world face similar problems. Sea level rise is a global issue of increasing

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Global Climatic and Stable Isotopic Correlations During the Early Permian (Cisuralian)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and effects of global warming. This study presents new oxygen and carbon stable isotopic data (?18O and ?13C, VPDB) from carefully screened, early Permian brachiopod shells from the Ural Mountains. Using cathodoluminescence (CL) microscopy, 24 specimens were...

Noret, Jordan R.

2009-06-09T23:59:59.000Z

402

Final Report on Evaluating the Representation and Impact of Convective Processes in the NCAR Community Climate System Model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Convection and clouds affect atmospheric temperature, moisture and wind fields through the heat of condensation and evaporation and through redistributions of heat, moisture and momentum. Individual clouds have a spatial scale of less than 10 km, much smaller than the grid size of several hundred kilometers used in climate models. Therefore the effects of clouds must be approximated in terms of variables that the model can resolve. Deriving such formulations for convection and clouds has been a major challenge for the climate modeling community due to the lack of observations of cloud and microphysical properties. The objective of our DOE CCPP project is to evaluate and improve the representation of convection schemes developed by PIs in the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and study its impact on global climate simulations. ē The project resulted in nine peer-reviewed publications and numerous scientific presentations that directly address the CCPPís scientific objective of improving climate models. ē We developed a package of improved convection parameterization that includes improved closure, trigger condition for convection, and comprehensive treatment of convective momentum transport. ē We implemented the new convection parameterization package into several versions of the NCAR models (both coupled and uncoupled). This has led to 1) Improved simulation of seasonal migration of ITCZ; 2) Improved shortwave cloud radiative forcing response to El NiŮo in CAM3; 3) Improved MJO simulation in both uncoupled and coupled model; and 4) Improved simulation of ENSO in coupled model. ē Using the dynamic core of CCM3, we isolated the dynamic effects of convective momentum transport. ē We implemented mosaic treatment of subgrid-scale cloud-radiation interaction in CCM3.

X. Wu, G. J. Zhang

2008-04-23T23:59:59.000Z

403

Ecological Restoration and Global Climate Change James A. Harris,1,5  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

responses to climate change because such activities help influence the planet's carbon budget in a positive ``brave new world,'' also known as our ``planet in peril,'' where rapidly changing environmental and socio cases over periods of intensity. However, it is clear

Schweik, Charles M.

404

Global environmental problems such as clima-te change need to be addressed so that today's  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of a prominentinternational scientific leader and numerous qualified researchers. MeasureMent technology for a better environMent to business opportunities The Earth's Environment -- climate and sustainable development Contact information's inhabitants also benefit. It is clearly possible to substantially reduce negative impact on the environment

Zhao, Yuxiao

405

Estimating future global per capita water availability based on changes in climate and population  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

availability a b s t r a c t Human populations are profoundly affected by water stress, or the lack be qualitatively defined as the lack of sufficient fresh water for domestic, agri- cultural, and/or industrial in climate and/or lack of storage capacity in areas that receive variable amounts of water through- out

Minnesota, University of

406

Opinion: Canada's efforts accelerate a global tragedy of the climate commons  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the Keystone XL pipeline overlaps Nature this week, which projects that, within a generation, known climates' for an answer" regarding the impending U.S. decision about the Keystone XL pipeline overlaps inauspiciously on Keystone XL exemplifies the point where the wheels of informed and ethical decision-making come off

407

Vol. 16, No. 2 May 2006Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment World Climate Research Programme  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

's climate system is an energy cycle that converts absorbed solar radiation into heat and associated, its rapid rotation, and its elliptical orbit about the sun, the solar heating is neither uniform nor ARE A NET SINK OF ENERGY Left panel shows zonal, seasonal average generation of available potential energy

408

A Finite Element Algorithm of a Nonlinear Diffusive Climate Energy Balance Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Finite Element Algorithm of a Nonlinear Diffusive Climate Energy Balance Model R. BERMEJO,1 J. This model belongs to the category of energy balance models introduced independently by the climatologists M climate. The energy balance model we are dealing with consists of a two-dimensional nonlinear parabolic

D√≠az, Jes√ļs Ildefonso

409

A framework for interpreting climate model outputs Nadja A. Leith and Richard E. Chandler  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to illustrate the methodology. Some key words: Climate change; Climate model uncertainty; Contemporaneous ARMA acknowledged that human activities have caused changes in the Earth's climate (Solomon et al., 2007). Indeed #12;the hydrological cycle (Solomon et al., 2007). To accommodate this possibility therefore, planners

Guillas, Serge

410

Crash testing hydrological models in contrasted climate conditions: An experiment on 216 Australian catchments  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of these models (flow simulation, forecasting, design, reservoir management, climate change impact assessments of climate change on stream- flow has been an increasing concern in the past few years and has been the focus this transposability is a critical issue in the context of climate change impact studies where nonstationary condi

Boyer, Edmond

411

E-Print Network 3.0 - amazon dry-season climate Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

dry- season drought. Journal of Geophysical Research... amplify the effects of global climate change on the region. And just like the Arctic, the Amazon... modellers fear that...

412

Climatic Change An Interdisciplinary, International  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

global warming scenario. According to the GFDL model, both the Australian and Kalahari basin dunes1 23 Climatic Change An Interdisciplinary, International Journal Devoted to the Description, Causes of stabilized dunes in the world, and changes in their mobility have significant economic implications. Global

Ashkenazy, Yossi "Yosef"

413

Climate Action Plan (Kentucky)  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The Commonwealth of Kentucky established the Kentucky Climate Action Plan Council (KCAPC) process to identify opportunities for Kentucky to respond to the challenge of global climate change while...

414

Global Solvability of the Anharmonic Oscillator Model From Nonlinear Optics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Global Solvability of the Anharmonic Oscillator Model From Nonlinear Optics J.L. Joly CEREMAB URA approxiamation may blow up in finite time. Key words. Nonlinear optics, nonlinear Maxwell equations, nonlinear equations @ t B + curl E = 0 (1:1) @ t E \\Gamma curl B = \\Gamma@ t P (1:2) @ 2 t P + @ t P=T 1 + aP = bE (1

Joly, Jean-Luc

415

Probabilistic Forecast for Twenty-First-Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (Without Policy) and Climate Parameters  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model is used to make probabilistic projections of climate change from 1861 to 2100. Since the modelís first projections were published in 2003, ...

Jacoby, Henry D.

416

Global Climate network evolves with North Atlantic Oscillation phases: Coupling to Southern Pacific Ocean  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We construct a network from climate records of atmospheric temperature at surface level, at different geographical sites in the globe, using reanalysis data from years 1948-2010. We find that the network correlates with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), both locally in the north Atlantic, and through coupling to the southern Pacific Ocean. The existence of tele-connection links between those areas and their stability over time allows us to suggest a possible physical explanation for this phenomenon.

Guez, Oded; Berezin, Yehiel; Wang, Yang; Havlin, Shlomo

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

417

Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

DOE-GTRC-05596 11/24/2104 Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate PI: Dr. Yi Deng (PI) School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology 404-385-1821, yi.deng@eas.gatech.edu El NiŮo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Annular Modes (AMs) represent respectively the most important modes of low frequency variability in the tropical and extratropical circulations. The projection of future changes in the ENSO and AM variability, however, remains highly uncertain with the state-of-the-science climate models. This project conducted a process-resolving, quantitative evaluations of the ENSO and AM variability in the modern reanalysis observations and in climate model simulations. The goal is to identify and understand the sources of uncertainty and biases in modelsí representation of ENSO and AM variability. Using a feedback analysis method originally formulated by one of the collaborative PIs, we partitioned the 3D atmospheric temperature anomalies and surface temperature anomalies associated with ENSO and AM variability into components linked to 1) radiation-related thermodynamic processes such as cloud and water vapor feedbacks, 2) local dynamical processes including convection and turbulent/diffusive energy transfer and 3) non-local dynamical processes such as the horizontal energy transport in the oceans and atmosphere. In the past 4 years, the research conducted at Georgia Tech under the support of this project has led to 15 peer-reviewed publications and 9 conference/workshop presentations. Two graduate students and one postdoctoral fellow also received research training through participating the project activities. This final technical report summarizes key scientific discoveries we made and provides also a list of all publications and conference presentations resulted from research activities at Georgia Tech. The main findings include: 1) the distinctly different roles played by atmospheric dynamical processes in establishing surface temperature response to ENSO at tropics and extratropics (i.e., atmospheric dynamics disperses energy out of tropics during ENSO warm events and modulate surface temperature at mid-, high-latitudes through controlling downward longwave radiation); 2) the representations of ENSO-related temperature response in climate models fail to converge at the process-level particularly over extratropics (i.e., models produce the right temperature responses to ENSO but with wrong reasons); 3) water vapor feedback contributes substantially to the temperature anomalies found over U.S. during different phases of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), which adds new insight to the traditional picture that cold/warm advective processes are the main drivers of local temperature responses to the NAM; 4) the overall land surface temperature biases in the latest NCAR model (CESM1) are caused by biases in surface albedo while the surface temperature biases over ocean are related to multiple factors including biases in model albedo, cloud and oceanic dynamics, and the temperature biases over different ocean basins are also induced by different process biases. These results provide a detailed guidance for process-level model turning and improvement, and thus contribute directly to the overall goal of reducing model uncertainty in projecting future changes in the Earthís climate system, especially in the ENSO and AM variability.

Deng, Yi

2014-11-24T23:59:59.000Z

418

Transient climate change and potential croplands of the world in the 21st century  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A cropland distribution model, which is based on climate, soil and topography, is applied to estimate the area and spatial distribution of global potential croplands under contemporary climate and to assess the effect of ...

Xiao, Xiangming.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Kicklighter, David W.; McGuire, A. David.; Tian, Hanqin.; Pan, Yude.; VŲrŲsmarty, Charles, J.; Yang, Zili.

419

Selection between foreground models for global 21-cm experiments  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The precise form of the foregrounds for sky-averaged measurements of the 21-cm line during and before the epoch of reionization is unknown. We suggest that the level of complexity in the foreground models used to fit global 21-cm data should be driven by the data, under a Bayesian model selection methodology. A first test of this approach is carried out by applying nested sampling to simplified models of global 21-cm data to compute the Bayesian evidence for the models. If the foregrounds are assumed to be polynomials of order n in log-log space, we can infer the necessity to use n=4 rather than n=3 with <2h of integration with limited frequency coverage, for reasonable values of the n=4 coefficient. Using a higher-order polynomial does not necessarily prevent a significant detection of the 21-cm signal. Even for n=8, we can obtain very strong evidence distinguishing a reasonable model for the signal from a null model with 128h of integration. More subtle features of the signal may, however, be lost if the...

Harker, Geraint

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

420

FY08 LDRD Final Report Regional Climate  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

An integrated, multi-model capability for regional climate change simulation is needed to perform original analyses to understand and prepare for the impacts of climate change on the time and space scales that are critical to California's future environmental quality and economic prosperity. Our intent was to develop a very high resolution regional simulation capability to address consequences of climate change in California to complement the global modeling capability that is supported by DOE at LLNL and other institutions to inform national and international energy policies. The California state government, through the California Energy Commission (CEC), institutionalized the State's climate change assessment process through its biennial climate change reports. The bases for these reports, however, are global climate change simulations for future scenarios designed to inform international policy negotiations, and are primarily focused on the global to continental scale impacts of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. These simulations do not meet the needs of California public and private officials who will make major decisions in the next decade that require an understanding of climate change in California for the next thirty to fifty years and its effects on energy use, water utilization, air quality, agriculture and natural ecosystems. With the additional development of regional dynamical climate modeling capability, LLNL will be able to design and execute global simulations specifically for scenarios important to the state, then use those results to drive regional simulations of the impacts of the simulated climate change for regions as small as individual cities or watersheds. Through this project, we systematically studied the strengths and weaknesses of downscaling global model results with a regional mesoscale model to guide others, particularly university researchers, who are using the technique based on models with less complete parameterizations or coarser spatial resolution. Further, LLNL has now built a capability in state-of-the-science mesoscale climate modeling that complements that which it has in global climate simulation, providing potential sponsors with an end-to-end simulation and analysis program.

Bader, D C; Chin, H; Caldwell, P M

2009-05-19T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Climate Change Impact Valuation Models Revisited | U.S. DOE Office...  

Office of Science (SC) Website

Climate Change Impact Valuation Models Revisited Biological and Environmental Research (BER) BER Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Searchable Archive of BER...

422

Technical Note: On the Use of Nudging for Aerosol-Climate Model Intercomparison Studies  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Nudging is an assimilation technique widely used in the development and evaluation of climate models. Con- straining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the artificial forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the relatively strong sensitivity of homogeneous ice nucleation to aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on longwave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. This suggests that nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy, especially for studies that involve both warm and cold clouds.

Zhang, Kai; Wan, Hui; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, Po-Lun; Rasch, Philip J.; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, U.

2014-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

423

Development of an atmospheric aerosol model for studies of global budgets and effects of airborne particulate material  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A microphysics-removal atmospheric aerosol model (AAM) is developed for use in general circulation models (GCMs) to study global budgets and effects of particulate material. In this model the particle population is composed of a set of log-normal modes whose time evolution due to microphysical processes is described via prognostic equations for an appropriate number of moments of the particle-size distribution. Detailed parameterizations of particle coagulation, sedimentation, dry deposition, and wet removal are developed and implemented into the AAM. The AAM is incorporated into a GCM and is applied to two types of studies: (1) characteristics of the particle wet and dry removal processes, and (2) climatic impact of massive particulate injections following a global nuclear war, with emphasis on the sensitivity of the simulated effects to the inclusion of particle microphysics. Results are discussed.

Giorgi, F.

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

424

Feedbacks in a simple prognostic tropical climate model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A simple four-cell model of the tropical atmosphere in equilibrium with its boundaries is introduced, which can support a variable diabatic circulation and prognostic temperature and humidity profiles. The model is used to predict atmospheric perturbations away from the observed base state. Prognostic variables include radiation, surface fluxes, and dynamic transports, with temperature and water vapor levels determined by conservation constraints. The model includes a specially developed water vapor scheme that performs favorably compared with observations. The model is used to simulate the local and nonlocal sensitivity of the tropical maritime atmosphere to changes in surface temperature and other boundary conditions at very large horizontal scales. The main findings are as follows: (i) The sensitivity of boundary layer convergence to sea surface temperature (SST) variations depends on the behavior of convective heating over cooler regions and may be overestimated by heuristic models that ignore or oversimplify thermodynamic and radiative constraints; (ii) The maintenance of humidity equilibrium over weakly convective areas is modulated by local radiative feedback; (iii) Evaporation feedbacks on SST may be overestimated by heuristic arguments that do not carefully treat atmospheric water transport. An explanation for the constant-relative humidity behavior of general circulation models under climate changes is also offered based on the results.

Sherwood, S.C. (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA (United States))

1999-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

425

Global horizontal irradiance clear sky models : implementation and analysis.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Clear sky models estimate the terrestrial solar radiation under a cloudless sky as a function of the solar elevation angle, site altitude, aerosol concentration, water vapor, and various atmospheric conditions. This report provides an overview of a number of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) clear sky models from very simple to complex. Validation of clear-sky models requires comparison of model results to measured irradiance during clear-sky periods. To facilitate validation, we present a new algorithm for automatically identifying clear-sky periods in a time series of GHI measurements. We evaluate the performance of selected clear-sky models using measured data from 30 different sites, totaling about 300 site-years of data. We analyze the variation of these errors across time and location. In terms of error averaged over all locations and times, we found that complex models that correctly account for all the atmospheric parameters are slightly more accurate than other models, but, primarily at low elevations, comparable accuracy can be obtained from some simpler models. However, simpler models often exhibit errors that vary with time of day and season, whereas the errors for complex models vary less over time.

Stein, Joshua S.; Hansen, Clifford W.; Reno, Matthew J.

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

426

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 J relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model climate and Earth System Models, both developed in France and contributing to the 5th coupled model

Codron, Francis

427

PURDUE UNIVERSITY LEADERSHIP IN ENERGY RESEARCH Recognizing the grand-challenge problems of global energy demands with evidence of climate change  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PURDUE UNIVERSITY LEADERSHIP IN ENERGY RESEARCH Recognizing the grand-challenge problems of global of energy including fossil fuels, nuclear, solar, wind and bioenergy. The activities incorporate socio energy demands with evidence of climate change and broader environmental impacts, Purdue is building

428

Evaluation of Mixed-Phase Cloud Microphysics Parameterizations with the NCAR Single Column Climate Model (SCAM) and ARM Observations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Mixed-phase stratus clouds are ubiquitous in the Arctic and play an important role in climate in this region. However, climate models have generally proven unsuccessful at simulating the partitioning of condensed water into liquid droplets and ice crystals in these Arctic clouds, which affect modeled cloud phase, cloud lifetime and radiative properties. An ice nucleation parameterization and a vapor deposition scheme were developed that together provide a physically-consistent treatment of mixed-phase clouds in global climate models. These schemes have been implemented in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmospheric Model Version 3 (CAM3). This report documents the performance of these schemes against ARM Mixed-phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) observations using the CAM single column model version (SCAM). SCAM with our new schemes has a more realistic simulation of the cloud phase structure and the partitioning of condensed water into liquid droplets against observations during the M-PACE than the standard CAM simulations.

Liu, X; Ghan, SJ; Xie, S

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

429

ARM - What is the ARM Climate Research Facility Doing About Global Warming?  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsruc Documentation RUCProductstwrmrAre the Effects of Global Warming? Outreach Home Outreach

430

Global climate change mitigation and sustainable forest management--The challenge of monitoring and verification  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper, sustainable forest management is discussed within the historical and theoretical framework of the sustainable development debate. The various criteria and indicators for sustainable forest management put forth by different institutions are critically explored. Specific types of climate change mitigation policies/projects in the forest sector are identified and examined in the light of the general criteria for sustainable forest management. Areas of compatibility and contradiction between the climate mitigation objectives and the minimum criteria for sustainable forest management are identified and discussed. Emphasis is put on the problems of monitoring and verifying carbon benefits associated with such projects given their impacts on pre-existing policy objectives on sustainable forest management. The implications of such policy interactions on assignment of carbon credits from forest projects under Joint Implementation/Activities Implemented Jointly initiatives are discussed. The paper concludes that a comprehensive monitoring and verification regime must include an impact assessment on the criteria covered under other agreements such as the Biodiversity and/or Desertification Conventions. The actual carbon credit assigned to a specific project should at least take into account the negative impacts on the criteria for sustainable forest management. The value of the impacts and/or the procedure to evaluate them need to be established by interested parties such as the Councils of the respective Conventions.

Makundi, Willy R.

1997-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

431

Can Oceanic Freshwater Flux Amplify Global Warming? LIPING ZHANG AND LIXIN WU  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Can Oceanic Freshwater Flux Amplify Global Warming? LIPING ZHANG AND LIXIN WU Physical Oceanography in global warming are studied using simulations of a climate model in which the freshwater flux changes that the warm climate leads to an acceleration of the global water cycle, which causes freshening in the high

432

Climate Change at Annual Timescales  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

carbon cycling to global climate change, Nature, 393 (6682),2005. Meehl, G. , et al. , Climate Change 2007: The PhysicalIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, chap. 10. Global

Stine, Alexander Robin

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

433

Climate Change Economics and Policy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AFRICA COLLEGE Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Adapting to Climate Change 3 CLIMATE...Furthermore, there is strong scientific evidence that climate change will disrupt the global economy, environment and society a growing population in a changing climate is, therefore, a major global challenge. Changes in climate

Romano, Daniela

434

Investment Dimension: Enhanced Data Equals Better Climate Models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. Department of Energy provided the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility with $60 million for new and upgraded instrumentation, equipment, and infrastructure to improve atmospheric data sets. These enhancements will take place among the permanent ARM research sites in Oklahoma and Alaska in the United States, and near the equator in the tropical Western Pacific. They will also advance the capabilities of ARMís mobile and aerial research platforms. This article focuses on key enhancements - particularly new scanning radars, enhanced lidar technologies, aerosol observation systems, and in situ aircraft probes - that will provide unprecedented data sets for the modeling community.

Roeder, Lynne R.

2010-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

In 1969 scientists from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, New Jersey, published results from the world's first climate model. Though the model gave scientists their first look  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of scarce resources. Causes of climate change Natural variations in global climate arise from phenomena) that the global pattern of warming during the past half century can be explained without external forcing of phenomena like tropical storms to a warming climate. SC 2010-G01744 Simulation of global hurricane

436

Global delivery of IT services : looking beyond the global delivery model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The objective of this thesis is to analyze the factors that create competitive advantage through global delivery of IT services. Research on this thesis consists of a review of IT services markets and globally distributed ...

Cherian, Binoy

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

437

Super Models, Old King Coal II, & Civil Disobedience For fellow technocrats: "Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE", to appear soon  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Super Models, Old King Coal II, & Civil Disobedience Model: For fellow technocrats: "Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE", to appear soon in Clim. Dyn., is available at http and filesize.) The paper documents how well the model simulates past climate. Simulations with this model

Hansen, James E.

438

A Sparse Bayesian Model for Dependence Analysis of Extremes: Climate Applications  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Sparse Bayesian Model for Dependence Analysis of Extremes: Climate Applications Debasish Das applications, such as climate, finance and social media among others, we are often interested in extreme events. An important part of modeling extremes is dis- covery of covariates on which the quantities related

Obradovic, Zoran

439

Development of Ensemble Neural Network Convection Parameterizations for Climate Models  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The novel neural network (NN) approach has been formulated and used for development of a NN ensemble stochastic convection parametrization for climate models. This fast parametrization is built based on data from Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) simulations initialized with and forced by TOGA-COARE data. The SAM (System for Atmospheric Modeling), developed by D. Randall, M. Khairoutdinov, and their collaborators, has been used for CRM simulations. The observational data are also used for validation of model simulations. The SAM-simulated data have been averaged and projected onto the GCM space of atmospheric states to implicitly define a stochastic convection parametrization. This parametrization is emulated using an ensemble of NNs. An ensemble of NNs with different NN parameters has been trained and tested. The inherent uncertainty of the stochastic convection parametrization derived in such a way is estimated. Due to these inherent uncertainties, NN ensemble is used to constitute a stochastic NN convection parametrization. The developed NN convection parametrization have been validated in a diagnostic CAM (CAM-NN) run vs. the control CAM run. Actually, CAM inputs have been used, at every time step of the control/original CAM integration, for parallel calculations of the NN convection parametrization (CAM-NN) to produce its outputs as a diagnostic byproduct. Total precipitation (P) and cloudiness (CLD) time series, diurnal cycles, and P and CLD distributions for the large Tropical Pacific Ocean for the parallel CAM-NN and CAM runs show similarity and consistency with the NCEP reanalysis. The P and CLD distributions for the tropical area for the parallel runs have been analyzed first for the TOGA-COARE boreal winter season (November 1992 through February 1993) and then for the winter seasons of the follow-up parallel decadal simulations. The obtained results are encouraging and practically meaningful. They show the validity of the NN approach. This constitutes an important practical conclusion of the study: the obtained results on NN ensembles as a stochastic physics parametrization show a realistic possibility of development of NN convection parametrization for climate (and NWP) models based on learning cloud physics from CRM/SAM simulated data.

Fox-Rabinovitz, M. S.; Krasnopolsky, V. M.

2012-05-02T23:59:59.000Z

440

RESPONSES OF PRIMARY PRODUCTION AND TOTAL CARBON STORAGE TO CHANGES IN CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Model (TEM, version 4.0) to estimate global responses of annual net primary production (NPP) and total. For contemporary climate with 315 ppmv CO2, TEM estimated that global NPP is 47.9 PgC/yr and global total carbon-q climate and +20.6% (9.9 PgC/yr) for the GISS climate. The responses of global total carbon storage are +17

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they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Potential impacts of global climate change on Tijuana River Watershed hydrology - An initial analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

run at a daily time step in ďwater balance modeĒ at a 1/8 byBased Model of Land Surface Water and Energy Fluxes forwere obtained from the Surface Water Modeling Group at the

Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Michael D; Cayan, Daniel R

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

CLIMATE MODELING BEST ESTIMATE DATASET (CMBE) -NEW ADDITIONS Renata McCoy, Shaocheng Xie, Stephen Klein, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CLIMATE MODELING BEST ESTIMATE DATASET (CMBE) - NEW ADDITIONS Renata McCoy, Shaocheng Xie, Stephen ARM product, the Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) dataset, is being augmented with the additional observational and model data. The CMBE dataset was created to serve the needs of climate model developers

443

Global  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmospheric Optical Depth7-1D: Vegetation ProposedUsingFun with Big Sky LearningGet Assistance GetGiant ProteaseGlass andT.2 -Global

444

he Impact of Primary Marine Aerosol on Atmospheric Chemistry, Radiation and Climate: A CCSM Model Development Study  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This project examined the potential large-scale influence of marine aerosol cycling on atmospheric chemistry, physics and radiative transfer. Measurements indicate that the size-dependent generation of marine aerosols by wind waves at the ocean surface and the subsequent production and cycling of halogen-radicals are important but poorly constrained processes that influence climate regionally and globally. A reliable capacity to examine the role of marine aerosol in the global-scale atmospheric system requires that the important size-resolved chemical processes be treated explicitly. But the treatment of multiphase chemistry across the breadth of chemical scenarios encountered throughout the atmosphere is sensitive to the initial conditions and the precision of the solution method. This study examined this sensitivity, constrained it using high-resolution laboratory and field measurements, and deployed it in a coupled chemical-microphysical 3-D atmosphere model. First, laboratory measurements of fresh, unreacted marine aerosol were used to formulate a sea-state based marine aerosol source parameterization that captured the initial organic, inorganic, and physical conditions of the aerosol population. Second, a multiphase chemical mechanism, solved using the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry‚??s MECCA (Module Efficiently Calculating the Chemistry of the Atmosphere) system, was benchmarked across a broad set of observed chemical and physical conditions in the marine atmosphere. Using these results, the mechanism was systematically reduced to maximize computational speed. Finally, the mechanism was coupled to the 3-mode modal aerosol version of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM v3.6.33). Decadal-scale simulations with CAM v.3.6.33, were run both with and without reactive-halogen chemistry and with and without explicit treatment of particulate organic carbon in the marine aerosol source function. Simulated results were interpreted (1) to evaluate influences of marine aerosol production on the microphysical properties of aerosol populations and clouds over the ocean and the corresponding direct and indirect effects on radiative transfer; (2) atmospheric burdens of reactive halogen species and their impacts on O3, NOx, OH, DMS, and particulate non-sea-salt SO42-; and (3) the global production and influences of marine-derived particulate organic carbon. The model reproduced major characteristics of the marine aerosol system and demonstrated the potential sensitivity of global, decadal-scale climate metrics to multiphase marine-derived components of Earth‚??s troposphere. Due to the combined computational burden of the coupled system, the currently available computational resources were the limiting factor preventing the adequate statistical analysis of the overall impact that multiphase chemistry might have on climate-scale radiative transfer and climate.

Keene, William C. [University of Virginia] [University of Virginia; Long, Michael S. [University of Virginia] [University of Virginia

2013-05-20T23:59:59.000Z

445

Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (without Policy) and Climate Parameters  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The MIT Integrated Global System Model is used to make probabilistic projections of climate change from 1861 to 2100. Since the model's first projections were published in 2003 substantial improvements have been made to ...

Sokolov, Andrei P.

446

Climate change under aggressive mitigation: the ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-10, 12165 Berlin, Germany H. Huebener Hessian Agency for the Environment and Geology, Rheingaustra√?e 186, Italy W. May √Ā S. Yang Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100.4) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K, is studied

Dufresne, Jean-Louis

447

ReseaRch at the University of Maryland Climate Modeling and Prediction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

between the familiar seven-day weather forecast and the century-long global-warming projection, Maryland-Rabinovitz's work is leading to improved predictions of extreme weather events such as monsoons, intense storms-use patterns and their contribution to climate change. Ning Zeng investigates how ice sheets store carbon

Hill, Wendell T.

448

Cpl6: The New Extensible, High-Performance Parallel Coupler forthe Community Climate System Model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Coupled climate models are large, multiphysics applications designed to simulate the Earth's climate and predict the response of the climate to any changes in the forcing or boundary conditions. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is a widely used state-of-art climate model that has released several versions to the climate community over the past ten years. Like many climate models, CCSM employs a coupler, a functional unit that coordinates the exchange of data between parts of climate system such as the atmosphere and ocean. This paper describes the new coupler, cpl6, contained in the latest version of CCSM,CCSM3. Cpl6 introduces distributed-memory parallelism to the coupler, a class library for important coupler functions, and a standardized interface for component models. Cpl6 is implemented entirely in Fortran90 and uses Model Coupling Toolkit as the base for most of its classes. Cpl6 gives improved performance over previous versions and scales well on multiple platforms.

Craig, Anthony P.; Jacob, Robert L.; Kauffman, Brain; Bettge,Tom; Larson, Jay; Ong, Everest; Ding, Chris; He, Yun

2005-03-24T23:59:59.000Z

449

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: CONTINUOUS DYNAMIC GRID ADAPTATION IN A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODEL: APPLICATION AND REFINEMENT  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This project had goals of advancing the performance capabilities of the numerical general circulation model EULAG and using it to produce a fully operational atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) that can employ either static or dynamic grid stretching for targeted phenomena. The resulting AGCM combined EULAG√ʬ?¬?s advanced dynamics core with the √ʬ?¬?physics√ʬ?¬Ě of the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). Effort discussed below shows how we improved model performance and tested both EULAG and the coupled CAM-EULAG in several ways to demonstrate the grid stretching and ability to simulate very well a wide range of scales, that is, multi-scale capability. We leveraged our effort through interaction with an international EULAG community that has collectively developed new features and applications of EULAG, which we exploited for our own work summarized here. Overall, the work contributed to over 40 peer- reviewed publications and over 70 conference/workshop/seminar presentations, many of them invited.

Prusa, Joseph

2012-05-08T23:59:59.000Z

450

Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: Initial experiments using GCAM  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Historically climate impacts research and climate mitigation research have been two separate and independent domains of inquiry. Climate mitigation research has investigated greenhouse gas emissions assuming that climate is unchanging. At the same time climate mitigation research has investigated the implications of climate change on the assumption that climate mitigation will proceed without affecting the degree of climate impacts or the ability of human and natural systems to adapt. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) has largely been employed to study climate mitigation. Here we explore the development of capabilities to assess climate change impacts and adaptation within the GCAM model. These capabilities are being developed so as to be able to simultaneously reconcile the joint implications of climate change mitigation, impacts and adaptive potential. This is an important step forward in that it enables direct comparison between climate mitigation activities and climate impacts and the opportunity to understand interactions between the two.

Calvin, Katherine V.; Wise, Marshall A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Thomson, Allison M.

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

Modelled effects of precipitation on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics in different climatic zones  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The ongoing changes in the global climate expose the world s ecosystems not only to increasing CO2 concentrations and temperatures but also to altered precipitation (P) regimes. Using four well-established process-based ecosystem models (LPJ, DayCent, ORCHIDEE, TECO), we explored effects of potential P changes on water limitation and net primary production (NPP) in seven terrestrial ecosystems with distinctive vegetation types in different hydroclimatic zones. We found that NPP responses to P changes differed not only among sites but also within a year at a given site. The magnitudes of NPP change were basically determined by the degree of ecosystem water limitation, which was quantified here using the ratio between atmospheric transpirational demand and soil water supply. Humid sites and/or periods were least responsive to any change in P as compared with moderately humid or dry sites/periods. We also found that NPP responded more strongly to doubling or halving of P amount and a seasonal shift in P occurrence than that to altered P frequency and intensity at constant annual amounts. The findings were highly robust across the four models especially in terms of the direction of changes and largely consistent with earlier P manipulation experiments and modelling results. Overall, this study underscores the widespread importance of P as a driver of change in ecosystems, although the ultimate response of a particular site will depend on the detailed nature and seasonal timing of P change.

Gerten, Dieter [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Luo, Yiqi [University of Oklahoma; Le Maire, Guerric [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environement, France; Parton, William [University of Colorado, Fort Collins; Keough, Cindy [University of Colorado, Fort Collins; Weng, Ensheng [University of Oklahoma, Norman; Beier, Claus [Riso National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark; Ciais, Philippe [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environement, France; Cramer, Wolfgang [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Dukes, Jeff [University of Massachusetts, Boston; Hanson, Paul J [ORNL; Knapp, Alan [Colorado State University, Fort Collins; Linder, Sune [Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Upsalla, Sweden; Nepstad, Daniel [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Woods Hole, MA; Rustad, Lindsey [USDA Forest Service; Sowerby, ALWYN [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bangor, Gwynedd, United Kingdom

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

Urban-scale impacts on the global-scale composition and climate effects of anthropogenic aerosols  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A reduced form meta model has been produced to simulate the effects of physical, chemical, and meteorological processing of highly reactive trace species in hypothetical urban areas, which is capable of efficiently simulating ...

Cohen, Jason Blake

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

453

Intercomparison and Evaluation of Global Aerosol Microphysical Properties among AeroCom Models of a Range of Complexity  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Many of the next generation of global climate models will include aerosol schemes which explicitly simulate the microphysical processes that determine the particle size distribution. These models enable aerosol optical properties and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations to be determined by fundamental aerosol processes, which should lead to a more physically based simulation of aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcings. This study examines the global variation in particle size distribution simulated by twelve global aerosol microphysics models to quantify model diversity and to identify any common biases against observations. Evaluation against size distribution measurements from a new European network of aerosol supersites shows that the mean model agrees quite well with the observations at many sites on the annual mean, but there are some seasonal biases common to many sites. In particular, at many of these European sites, the accumulation mode number concentration is biased low during winter and Aitken mode concentrations tend to be overestimated in winter and underestimated in summer. At high northern latitudes, the models strongly underpredict Aitken and accumulation particle concentrations compared to the measurements, consistent with previous studies that have highlighted the poor performance of global aerosol models in the Arctic. In the marine boundary layer, the models capture the observed meridional variation in the size distribution, which is dominated by the Aitken mode at high latitudes, with an increasing concentration of accumulation particles with decreasing latitude. Considering vertical profiles, the models reproduce the observed peak in total particle concentrations in the upper troposphere due to new particle formation, although modelled peak concentrations tend to be biased high over Europe. Overall, the results suggest that most global aerosol microphysics models simulate the global variation of the particle size distribution with a good degree of skill, but some models are in poor agreement with the observations. Further work is required to better constrain size-resolved primary and secondary particle number sources, and an improved understanding of nucleation and growth (e.g. the role of nitrate and secondary organics) will improve the fidelity of simulated particle size distributions.

Mann, G. W.; Carslaw, K. S.; Reddington, C. L.; Pringle, K. J.; Schulz, M.; Asmi, A.; Spracklen, D. V.; Ridley, D. A.; Woodhouse, M. T.; Lee, L. A.; Zhang, Kai; Ghan, Steven J.; Easter, Richard C.; Liu, Xiaohong; Stier, P.; Lee, Y. H.; Adams, P. J.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.; Bauer, S.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; van Noije, T.; Strunk, A.; Vignati, E.; Bellouin, N.; Dalvi, M.; Johnson, C. E.; Bergman, T.; Kokkola, H.; Von Salzen, Knut; Yu, Fangqun; Luo, Gan; Petzold, A.; Heintzenberg, J.; Clarke, A. D.; Ogren, J. A.; Gras, J.; Baltensperger, Urs; Kaminski, U.; Jennings, S. G.; O'Dowd, C. D.; Harrison, R. M.; Beddows, D. C.; Kulmala, M.; Viisanen, Y.; Ulevicius, V.; Mihalopoulos, Nikos; Zdimal, V.; Fiebig, M.; Hansson, H. C.; Swietlicki, E.; Henzing, J. S.

2014-05-13T23:59:59.000Z

454

Scientific Final Report: COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: CONTINUOUS DYNAMIC GRID ADAPTATION IN A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODEL: APPLICATION AND REFINEMENT  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This project had goals of advancing the performance capabilities of the numerical general circulation model EULAG and using it to produce a fully operational atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) that can employ either static or dynamic grid stretching for targeted phenomena. The resulting AGCM combined EULAG's advanced dynamics core with the 'physics' of the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). Effort discussed below shows how we improved model performance and tested both EULAG and the coupled CAM-EULAG in several ways to demonstrate the grid stretching and ability to simulate very well a wide range of scales, that is, multi-scale capability. We leveraged our effort through interaction with an international EULAG community that has collectively developed new features and applications of EULAG, which we exploited for our own work summarized here. Overall, the work contributed to over 40 peer-reviewed publications and over 70 conference/workshop/seminar presentations, many of them invited.

William J. Gutowski; Joseph M. Prusa, Piotr K. Smolarkiewicz

2012-04-09T23:59:59.000Z

455

Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

1994-11-30T23:59:59.000Z

456

Using Dempster-Shafer Theory to model uncertainty in climate change and environmental impact  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using Dempster-Shafer Theory to model uncertainty in climate change and environmental impact]. The design wave overtopping in a context of changing climate cannot be deterministically predicted due defense structure due to (1) uncertain elevation of the mean water level and (2) uncertain level of storm

Boyer, Edmond

457

Climate simulations and projections with a super-parameterized climate model. Journal of Environmental Modeling and Software. Volume: 60. Pages: 134-152  

DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

The mean climate and its variability are analyzed in a suite of numerical experiments with a fully coupled general circulation model in which subgrid-scale moist convection is explicitly represented through embedded 2D cloud-system resolving models. Control simulations forced by the present day, fixed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are conducted using two horizontal resolutions and validated against observations and reanalyses. The mean state simulated by the higher resolution configuration has smaller biases. Climate variability also shows some sensitivity to resolution but not as uniform as in the case of mean state. The interannual and seasonal variability are better represented in the simulation at lower resolution whereas the subseasonal variability is more accurate in the higher resolution simulation. The equilibrium climate sensitivity of the model is estimated from a simulation forced by an abrupt quadrupling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The equilibrium climate sensitivity temperature of the model is 2.77 degrees C, and this value is slightly smaller than the mean value (3.37 degrees C) of contemporary models using conventional representation of cloud processes. The climate change simulation forced by the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario projects an increase in the frequency of severe droughts over most of the North America.

Stan, Cristiana; Xu, Li

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

458

Global temperatures using satellite and numerical model assimilated data  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) aboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) series of polar orbiting satellites (TIROS-N to NOAA-11) have provided stable, precise measurements of vertically integrated, atmospheric temperature since December 1978. In this study, comparisons are made between the MSU channel measurements and those derived from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) over the period 1979 to 1990. Land areas rich in Radiosonde Observations (RAOBS) showed similar magnitudes of spatial variability between the NMC GDAS and the MSU temperatures. Excessive spatial variability can be noted in the GDAS over land areas where conventional data is poor. Over the ocean, however, the assimilation of satellite data into the model improves the spatial variability detected by the GDAS.

Basist, A.; Ropelewski, C.; Grody, N. (NOAA/NWS/NMC, Washington, DC (United States) NOAA/NESDIS, Washington, DC (United States))

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

459

Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate System Model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Primary activities are reported in these areas: climate system component studies via one-way coupling experiments; development of the Regional Arctic Climate System Model (RACM); and physical feedback studies focusing on changes in Arctic sea ice using the fully coupled model.

Lettenmaier, Dennis P

2013-04-08T23:59:59.000Z

460

Climate Change and Extinctions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lectures presents: Climate Change and Extinctions Happening2013. He will present a climate change extinction model that

Sinervo, Barry

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) Interdisciplinary Science Workshop: Decadal Climate Prediction; Aspen, CO; June 22-28, 2008  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10?30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes.

Katzenberger, John

2010-03-12T23:59:59.000Z

462

Improvement of snowpack simulations in a regional climate model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To improve simulations of regional-scale snow processes and related cold-season hydroclimate, the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3), developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), was coupled with the Pennsylvania State University/NCAR fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). CLM3 physically describes the mass and heat transfer within the snowpack using five snow layers that include liquid water and solid ice. The coupled MM5ĖCLM3 model performance was evaluated for the snowmelt season in the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwestern United States using gridded temperature and precipitation observations, along with station observations. The results from MM5ĖCLM3 show a significant improvement in the SWE simulation, which has been underestimated in the original version of MM5 coupled with the Noah land-surface model. One important cause for the underestimated SWE in Noah is its unrealistic land-surface structure configuration where vegetation, snow and the topsoil layer are blended when snow is present. This study demonstrates the importance of the sheltering effects of the forest canopy on snow surface energy budgets, which is included in CLM3. Such effects are further seen in the simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation in regional weather and climate models such as MM5. In addition, the snow-season surface albedo overestimated by MM5ĖNoah is now more accurately predicted by MM5ĖCLM3 using a more realistic albedo algorithm that intensifies the solar radiation absorption on the land surface, reducing the strong near-surface cold bias in MM5ĖNoah. The cold bias is further alleviated due to a slower snowmelt rate in MM5ĖCLM3 during the early snowmelt stage, which is closer to observations than the comparable components of MM5ĖNoah. In addition, the over-predicted precipitation in the Pacific Northwest as shown in MM5ĖNoah is significantly decreased in MM5 CLM3 due to the lower evaporation resulting from the longer snow duration.

Jin, J.; Miller, N.L.

2011-01-10T23:59:59.000Z

463

Object-Oriented Energy, Climate, and Technology Systems (ObjECTS) Global  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Office of InspectorConcentrating Solar Powerstories onFocus AreaDataBusPFAN)Change Assessment Model (GCAM) | Open

464

CO2 threshold for millennial-scale oscillations in the climate system: implications for global warming scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

conditions, some records of the recent climate history indicate that millennial oscillations are also part intervals (Bond et al. 1997). The cause of these abrupt changes in climate is still under investigation: whereas most climate scientists see changes in the strength of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation

Meissner, Katrin Juliane

465

The impact of climate, CO2, nitrogen deposition and land use change on simulated contemporary global river flow  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The impact of climate, CO2, nitrogen deposition and land use change on simulated contemporary., 38, L08704, doi:10.1029/ 2011GL046773. 1. Introduction [2] Climate change and human activities and Fung [2008] found that climate and land use change play more important roles than the stomatal closure

Hoffman, Forrest M.

466

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

Gutowski, William J.

2013-02-07T23:59:59.000Z

467

A simple model for evolution of proteins towards the global minimum of free energy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A simple model for evolution of proteins towards the global minimum of free energy Tamar Kaffe-Abramovich and Ron Unger Background: Proteins seem to have their native structure in a global minimum of free energy is in the global minimum of free energy. The aim of this study is to investigate such evolutionary processes

Unger, Ron

468

The China-in-Global Energy Model Tianyu Qi, Niven Winchester, Da Zhang,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of production, consumption and trade among multiple global regions and sectors ­ including five energy to communicate research results and improve public understanding of global environment and energy challenges-intensive sectors ­ to analyze global energy demand, CO2 emissions, and economic activity. The C-GEM model supplies

469

Modeling Climate Feedbacks to Energy Demand: The Case of China  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper is an empirical investigation of the effects of climate on the use of electricity by consumers and producers in urban and rural areas within China. It takes advantage of an unusual combination of temporal and ...

Asadoorian, Malcolm O.

470

Modeled climate change effects on distributions of Canadian butterfly species  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Abstract: Climate change effects on biodiversity are being documented now frequently in the form of changes in phenology and distributional shifts. However, the form that these effects will take over a longer timespan is ...

Peterson, A. Townsend; Martí nez-Meyer, Enrique; Gonzá lez-Salazar, Constantino; Hall, Peter W.

2004-07-30T23:59:59.000Z

471

The Program for climate Model diagnosis and Intercomparison: 20-th anniversary Symposium  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Twenty years ago, W. Lawrence (Larry) Gates approached the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Research (now the Office of Science) with a plan to coordinate the comparison and documentation of climate model differences. This effort would help improve our understanding of climate change through a systematic approach to model intercomparison. Early attempts at comparing results showed a surprisingly large range in control climate from such parameters as cloud cover, precipitation, and even atmospheric temperature. The DOE agreed to fund the effort at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), in part because of the existing computing environment and because of a preexisting atmospheric science group that contained a wide variety of expertise. The project was named the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), and it has changed the international landscape of climate modeling over the past 20 years. In spring 2009 the DOE hosted a 1-day symposium to celebrate the twentieth anniversary of PCMDI and to honor its founder, Larry Gates. Through their personal experiences, the morning presenters painted an image of climate science in the 1970s and 1980s, that generated early support from the international community for model intercomparison, thereby bringing PCMDI into existence. Four talks covered Gates√?¬?√?¬Ę√?¬?√?¬?√?¬?√?¬?s early contributions to climate research at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), the RAND Corporation, and Oregon State University through the founding of PCMDI to coordinate the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The speakers were, in order of presentation, Warren Washington [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)], Kelly Redmond (Western Regional Climate Center), George Boer (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis), and Lennart Bengtsson [University of Reading, former director of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)]. The afternoon session emphasized the scientific ideas that are the basis of PCMDI√?¬?√?¬Ę√?¬?√?¬?√?¬?√?¬?s success, summarizing their evolution and impact. Four speakers followed the various PCMDI-supported climate model intercomparison projects, beginning with early work on cloud representations in models, presented by Robert D. Cess (Distinguished Professor Emeritus, Stony Brook University), and then the latest Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Projects (CFMIPs) led by Sandrine Bony (Laboratoire de M√?¬?√?¬?√?¬?√?¬©t√?¬?√?¬?√?¬?√?¬©orologie Dynamique). Benjamin Santer (LLNL) presented a review of the climate change detection and attribution (D & A) work pioneered at PCMDI, and Gerald A. Meehl (NCAR) ended the day with a look toward the future of climate change research.

Potter, Gerald L; Bader, David C; Riches, Michael; Bamzai, Anjuli; Joseph, Renu

2011-01-05T23:59:59.000Z

472

Predicting Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Modes with a Climate Modeling Hierarchy -- Final Report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The goal of the project was to determine midlatitude climate predictability associated with tropical-extratropical interactions on interannual-to-interdecadal time scales. Our strategy was to develop and test a hierarchy of climate models, bringing together large GCM-based climate models with simple fluid-dynamical coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere models, through the use of advanced probabilistic network (PN) models. PN models were used to develop a new diagnostic methodology for analyzing coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions in large climate simulations made with the NCAR Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and to make these tools user-friendly and available to other researchers. We focused on interactions between the tropics and extratropics through atmospheric teleconnections (the Hadley cell, Rossby waves and nonlinear circulation regimes) over both the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and the oceanís thermohaline circulation (THC) in the Atlantic. We tested the hypothesis that variations in the strength of the THC alter sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and that the latter influence the atmosphere in high latitudes through an atmospheric teleconnection, feeding back onto the THC. The PN model framework was used to mediate between the understanding gained with simplified primitive equations models and multi-century simulations made with the PCM. The project team is interdisciplinary and built on an existing synergy between atmospheric and ocean scientists at UCLA, computer scientists at UCI, and climate researchers at the IRI.

Michael Ghil, UCLA; Andrew W. Robertson, IRI, Columbia Univ.; Sergey Kravtsov, U. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee; Padhraic Smyth, UC Irvine

2006-08-04T23:59:59.000Z

473

Downscaling Global Land Cover Projections from an Integrated Assessment Model for Use in Regional Analyses: Results and Evaluation for the US from 2005 to 2095  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Projections of land cover change generated from Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and other economic-based models can be applied for analyses of environmental impacts at subregional and landscape scales. For those IAM and economic models that project land use at the sub-continental or regional scale, these projections must be downscaled and spatially distributed prior to use in climate or ecosystem models. Downscaling efforts to date have been conducted at the national extent with relatively high spatial resolution (30m) and at the global extent with relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.5 degree).

West, Tristram O.; Le Page, Yannick LB; Huang, Maoyi; Wolf, Julie; Thomson, Allison M.

2014-06-05T23:59:59.000Z

474

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation Cyril a hybrid ARMA/ANN model and data issued from a numerical weather prediction model (ALADIN). We particularly@gmail.com #12;Abstract. We propose in this paper an original technique to predict global radiation using

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

475

Multi-model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation of Historical and Projected Future Changes  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States, but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching >1300 mgN/m2/yr averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, ~30-50% larger than the values in any region currently (2000). Despite known issues, the new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Dentener, Frank; McConnell, J.R.; Ro, C-U; Shaw, Mark; Vet, Robert; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Dalsoren, S.; Doherty, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, Steven J.; Josse, B.; Lee, Y. H.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, David; Shindell, Drew; Skeie, R. B.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S.; Zeng, G.; Curran, M.; Dahl-Jensen, D.; Das, S.; Fritzsche, D.; Nolan, M.

2013-08-20T23:59:59.000Z

476

Estimation of the mean depth of boreal lakes for use in numerical weather prediction and climate modelling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models through parameterisation. For parameterisation, data. The effect of lakes should be parameterised in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate modellingEstimation of the mean depth of boreal lakes for use in numerical weather prediction and climate

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

477

Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices.

Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, A.; Weaver, C. P.; Morefield, Philip; Huang, Jin; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Adams, P. J.; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, J.; Mahoney, Hardee

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

478

LONG-TERM GLOBAL WATER USE PROJECTIONS USING SIX SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING FRAMEWORK  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change Ė the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demandsóboth gross withdrawals and net consumptive useóare assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. We assess future water demands representing six socioeconomic scenarios, with no constraints imposed by future water supplies. The scenarios observe increases in global water withdrawals from 3,578 km3 year-1 in 2005 to 5,987 Ė 8,374 km3 year-1 in 2050, and to 4,719 Ė 12,290 km3 year-1 in 2095. Comparing the projected total regional water withdrawals to the historical supply of renewable freshwater, the Middle East exhibits the highest levels of water scarcity throughout the century, followed by India; water scarcity increases over time in both of these regions. In contrast, water scarcity improves in some regions with large base-year electric sector withdrawals, such as the USA and Canada, due to capital stock turnover and the almost complete phase-out of once-through flow cooling systems. The scenarios indicate that: 1) water is likely a limiting factor in climate change mitigation policies, 2) many regions can be expected to increase reliance on non-renewable groundwater, water reuse, and desalinated water, but they also highlight an important role for development and deployment of water conservation technologies and practices.

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.; Moss, Richard H.; Kim, Son H.

2014-01-19T23:59:59.000Z

479

New approaches to data-assimilation in paleo-climatic modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

approaches to data-assimilation in paleo-climatic modeling ­ p.1 #12;NH temperature reconstruction ECHO-G (Erik1), ECHO-G (Erik2), CCSM ECBilt-Clio, Jones and Mann (2004) New approaches to data

Schrier, Gerard van der

480

Evaluation of short-term climate change prediction in multi-model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

events such as trop- ical cyclone activity. On decadal timescales, some aspects of internal climate skill of individual models have been analyzed separately for multi-year prediction horizons over

Webster, Peter J.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "global climate models" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

Modeling Climate-Water Impacts on Electricity Sector Capacity Expansion: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Climate change has the potential to exacerbate water availability concerns for thermal power plant cooling, which is responsible for 41% of U.S. water withdrawals. This analysis describes an initial link between climate, water, and electricity systems using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity system capacity expansion model. Average surface water projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) data are applied to surface water rights available to new generating capacity in ReEDS, and electric sector growth is compared with and without climate-influenced water rights. The mean climate projection has only a small impact on national or regional capacity growth and water use because most regions have sufficient unappropriated or previously retired water rights to offset climate impacts. Climate impacts are notable in southwestern states that purchase fewer water rights and obtain a greater share from wastewater and other higher-cost water resources. The electric sector climate impacts demonstrated herein establish a methodology to be later exercised with more extreme climate scenarios and a more rigorous representation of legal and physical water availability.

Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.

2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

482

Predictability and Diagnosis of Low-Frequency Climate Processes in the Pacific  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Predicting the climate for the coming decades requires understanding both natural and anthropogenically forced climate variability. This variability is important because it has major societal impacts, for example by causing floods or droughts on land or altering fishery stocks in the ocean. Our results fall broadly into three topics: evaluating global climate model predictions; regional impacts of climate changes over western North America; and regional impacts of climate changes over the eastern North Pacific Ocean.

Dr. Arthur J. Miller

2008-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

483

Climate Change Mitigation: Climate, Health, and Equity Implications of the Visible and the Hidden  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2008). "Accountability of networked climate governance: Therise of transnational climate partnerships." GlobalBoard. CARB (2008d). Climate change proposed scoping plan: a

Shonkoff, Seth Berrin

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

484

Bringing climate change down to earth : science and participation in Canadian and Australian climate change campaigns  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

about Global Climate Change. Public Understanding of ScienceFoundation. 2005a. Climate Change: A Matter of SurvivalFoundation. 2005b. Climate Change > Actions 2005 [cited 10

Padolsky, Miriam Elana

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

Modeled Interactive Effects of Precipitation, temperature, and [CO2] on Ecosystem Carbon and Water Dynamics in Different Climatic Zones  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Interactive effects of multiple global change factors on ecosystem processes are complex. It is relatively expensive to explore those interactions in manipulative experiments. We conducted a modeling analysis to identify potentially important interactions and to stimulate hypothesis formulation for experimental research. Four models were used to quantify interactive effects of climate warming (T), altered precipitation amounts [doubled (DP) and halved (HP)] and seasonality (SP, moving precipitation in July and August to January and February to create summer drought), and elevated [CO2] (C) on net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), net ecosystem production (NEP), transpiration, and runoff.We examined those responses in seven ecosystems, including forests, grasslands, and heathlands in different climate zones. The modeling analysis showed that none of the threeway interactions among T, C, and altered precipitation was substantial for either carbon or water processes, nor consistent among the seven ecosystems. However, two-way interactive effects on NPP, Rh, and NEP were generally positive (i.e. amplification of one factor s effect by the other factor) between T and C or between T and DP. A negative interaction (i.e. depression of one factor s effect by the other factor) occurred for simulated NPP between T and HP. The interactive effects on runoff were positive between T and HP. Four pairs of two-way interactive effects on plant transpiration were positive and two pairs negative. In addition, wet sites generally had smaller relative changes in NPP, Rh, runoff, and transpiration but larger absolute changes in NEP than dry sites in response to the treatments. The modeling results suggest new hypotheses to be tested in multifactor global change experiments. Likewise, more experimental evidence is needed for the further improvement of ecosystem models in order to adequately simulate complex interactive processes.

Luo, Yiqi [University of Oklahoma; Gerten, Dieter [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Le Maire, Guerric [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environement, France; Parton, William [University of Colorado, Fort Collins; Weng, Ensheng [University of Oklahoma, Norman; Zhou, Xuhuui [University of Oklahoma; Keough, Cindy [University of Colorado, Fort Collins; Beier, Claus [Riso National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark; Ciais, Philippe [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environement, France; Cramer, Wolfgang [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Dukes, Jeff [University of Massachusetts, Boston; Emmett, Bridget [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bangor, Gwynedd, United Kingdom; Hanson, Paul J [ORNL; Knapp, Alan [Colorado State University, Fort Collins; Linder, Sune [Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Upsalla, Sweden; Nepstad, Daniel [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Woods Hole, MA; Rustad, Lindsey [USDA Forest Service

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z