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Sample records for global climate models

  1. Global Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Page 2 - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy

  2. Global Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy Nuclear

  3. Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models Berkeley Lab Researcher Says Climate Science is Entering New...

  4. Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models Berkeley Lab Researcher Says Climate Science is Entering New Golden Age November 12, 2014 Contact: Julie Chao, jchao@lbl.gov, 510.486.6491 wehnerclimate2 Simulated and observed annual maximum 5 day accumulated precipitation over land points, averaged. Observations are calculated from the period 1979 to 1999. Model results are calculated from the period 1979 to 2005. Not long ago,

  5. Climate Models from the Joint Global Change Research Institute

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Staff at the Joint Institute develop and use models to simulate the economic and physical impacts of global change policy options. The GCAM, for example, gives analysts insight into how regional and national economies might respond to climate change mitigation policies including carbon taxes, carbon trading, and accelerated deployment of energy technology. Three available models are Phoenix, GCAM, and EPIC. Phoenix is a global, dynamic recursive, computable general equilibrium model that is solved in five-year time steps from 2005 through 2100 and divides the world into twenty-four regions. Each region includes twenty-six industrial sectors. Particular attention is paid to energy production in Phoenix. There are nine electricity-generating technologies (coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal) and four additional energy commodities: crude oil, refined oil products, coal, and natural gas. Phoenix is designed to answer economic questions related to international climate and energy policy and international trade. Phoenix replaces the Second Generation Model (SGM) that was formerly used for general equilibrium analysis at JGCRI. GCAM is the Global Change Assessment Model, a partial equilibrium model of the world with 14 regions. GCAM operates in 5 year time steps from 1990 to 2095 and is designed to examine long-term changes in the coupled energy, agriculture/land-use, and climate system. GCAM includes a 151-region agriculture land-use module and a reduced form carbon cycle and climate module in addition to its incorporation of demographics, resources, energy production and consumption. The model has been used extensively in a number of assessment and modeling activities such as the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and IPCC assessment reports. GCAM is now freely available as a community model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) Model is a process-based agricultural systems model composed of simulation components for weather, hydrology, nutrient cycling, pesticide fate, tillage, crop growth, soil erosion, crop and soil management and economics. Staff at PNNL have been involved in the development of this model by integrating new sub-models for soil carbon dynamics and nitrogen cycling.

  6. Regional & Global Climate Modeling (RGCM) Program | U.S. DOE...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    ... Current descriptions of the RGCM and other Climate and Earth System Modeling projects, ... Metrics to evaluate components of the Earth system, such as the carbon cycle, ocean ...

  7. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Team Attends World Water Week in Stockholm Climate, Energy, Global Climate & Energy, Modeling, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Water Security Sandia Team Attends World Water Week in Stockholm Stephanie Kuzio, Vince Tidwell, and Tom Lowry (all from Sandia's Earth Systems Analysis Dept.), represented Sandia's Water and Environment Program (part of the Sandia's Climate & Environment Program Area) at World Water Week in Stockholm August 31-September 5th. The theme for this

  8. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  9. Intercomparison of the Cloud Water Phase among Global Climate Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Komurcu, Muge; Storelvmo, Trude; Tan, Ivy; Lohmann, U.; Yun, Yuxing; Penner, Joyce E.; Wang, Yong; Liu, Xiaohong; Takemura, T.

    2014-03-27

    Mixed-phase clouds (clouds that consist of both cloud droplets and ice crystals) are frequently present in the Earths atmosphere and influence the Earths energy budget through their radiative properties, which are highly dependent on the cloud water phase. In this study, the phase partitioning of cloud water is compared among six global climate models (GCMs) and with Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization retrievals. It is found that the GCMs predict vastly different distributions of cloud phase for a given temperature, and none of them are capable of reproducing the spatial distribution or magnitude of the observed phase partitioning. While some GCMs produced liquid water paths comparable to satellite observations, they all failed to preserve sufficient liquid water at mixed-phase cloud temperatures. Our results suggest that validating GCMs using only the vertically integrated water contents could lead to amplified differences in cloud radiative feedback. The sensitivity of the simulated cloud phase in GCMs to the choice of heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization is also investigated. The response to a change in ice nucleation is quite different for each GCM, and the implementation of the same ice nucleation parameterization in all models does not reduce the spread in simulated phase among GCMs. The results suggest that processes subsequent to ice nucleation are at least as important in determining phase and should be the focus of future studies aimed at understanding and reducing differences among the models.

  10. Posters Radiation Impacts on Global Climate Models F. Baer, N. Arsky, and K. Rocque

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Posters Radiation Impacts on Global Climate Models F. Baer, N. Arsky, and K. Rocque University of Maryland College Park, Maryland Climate Prediction and Radiative Heating Climate models are driven by forcing, and these forces are seen primarily by the thermal field in general circulation models (GCMs). The major forces that affect the thermal field are longwave radiative (LWR) heating, shortwave radiative (SWR) heating, and convection (cumulus, etc.). These forcing effects are cycled through

  11. ENERGY INVESTMENTS UNDER CLIMATE POLICY: A COMPARISON OF GLOBAL MODELS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCollum, David; Nagai, Yu; Riahi, Keywan; Marangoni, Giacomo; Calvin, Katherine V.; Pietzcker, Robert; Van Vliet, Jasper; van der Zwaan, Bob

    2013-11-01

    The levels of investment needed to mobilize an energy system transformation and mitigate climate change are not known with certainty. This paper aims to inform the ongoing dialogue and in so doing to guide public policy and strategic corporate decision making. Within the framework of the LIMITS integrated assessment model comparison exercise, we analyze a multi-IAM ensemble of long-term energy and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Our study provides insight into several critical but uncertain areas related to the future investment environment, for example in terms of where capital expenditures may need to flow regionally, into which sectors they might be concentrated, and what policies could be helpful in spurring these financial resources. We find that stringent climate policies consistent with a 2C climate change target would require a considerable upscaling of investments into low-carbon energy and energy efficiency, reaching approximately $45 trillion (range: $30$75 trillion) cumulative between 2010 and 2050, or about $1.1 trillion annually. This represents an increase of some $30 trillion ($10$55 trillion), or $0.8 trillion per year, beyond what investments might otherwise be in a reference scenario that assumes the continuation of present and planned emissions-reducing policies throughout the world. In other words, a substantial "clean-energy investment gap" of some $800 billion/yr exists notably on the same order of magnitude as present-day subsidies for fossil energy and electricity worldwide ($523 billion). Unless the gap is filled rather quickly, the 2C target could potentially become out of reach.

  12. ARM Data Help Improve Precipitation in Global Climate Models...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Image courtesy of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility ... of Graciosa Island where Atmospheric Radiation Measurement observations were collected ...

  13. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Participated in the 2013 Domenici Public Policy Conference Carbon Capture & Storage, Carbon Storage, Climate, Earth Sciences Research Center, Energy, Global Climate & Energy, Global Climate & Energy, News, News & Events, Systems Analysis, Systems Engineering, Water Security Sandia Participated in the 2013 Domenici Public Policy Conference Marianne Walck, Director of Sandia's Geoscience, Climate, and Consequence Effects Center, spoke on "Hydraulic Fracturing: The Role of

  14. Zooming in: From global to regional climate models | Argonne...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    to explore climate changes that occur on a diurnal scale, such as thunderstorms or urban heat islands. With Mira, approximately 1 million core-hours are needed to run a one-year...

  15. Global vegetation model diversity and the risks of climate-driven ecosystem shifts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2013-11-08

    Climate change is modifying global biogeochemical cycles, and is expected to exert increasingly large effects in the future. How these changes will in turn affect and interact with the structure and function of particular ecosystems is unclear, however, both because of scientific uncertainties and the very diversity of global vegetation models in use. Writing in Environmental Research Letters, Warszawski et al. (1) aggregate results from a group of models, across a range of emissions scenarios and climate data, to investigate these risks. Although the models frequently disagree about which specific regions are at risk, they consistently predict a greater chance of ecosystem restructuring with more warming; this risk roughly doubles between 2 and 3 C increases in global mean temperature. The innovative work of Warszawski et al. represents an important first step towards fully consistent multi-model, multi-scenario assessments of the future risks to global ecosystems.

  16. Multi-century Changes to Global Climate and Carbon Cycle: Results from a Coupled Climate and Carbon Cycle Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Mirin, A; Wickett, M; Delire, C

    2005-02-17

    In this paper, we use a coupled climate and carbon cycle model to investigate the global climate and carbon cycle changes out to year 2300 that would occur if CO{sub 2} emissions from all the currently estimated fossil fuel resources were released to the atmosphere. By year 2300, the global climate warms by about 8 K and atmospheric CO{sub 2} reaches 1423 ppmv. The warming is higher than anticipated because the sensitivity to radiative forcing increases as the simulation progresses. In our simulation, the rate of emissions peak at over 30 PgC yr{sup -1} early in the 22nd century. Even at year 2300, nearly 50% of cumulative emissions remain in the atmosphere. In our simulations both soils and living biomass are net carbon sinks throughout the simulation. Despite having relatively low climate sensitivity and strong carbon uptake by the land biosphere, our model projections suggest severe long-term consequences for global climate if all the fossil-fuel carbon is ultimately released to the atmosphere.

  17. Posters Cloud Parameterizations in Global Climate Models: The Role of Aerosols

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Posters Cloud Parameterizations in Global Climate Models: The Role of Aerosols J. E. Penner and C. C. Chuang Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore, California Introduction Aerosols influence warm clouds in two ways. First, they determine initial drop size distributions, thereby influencing the albedo of clouds. Second, they determine the lifetime of clouds, thereby possibly changing global cloud cover statistics. At the present time, neither effect of aerosols on clouds is included

  18. Moisture Flux Convergence in Regional and Global Climate Models: Implications for Droughts in the Southwestern United States Under Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gao, Yanhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Salathe, E.; Dominguez, Francina; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-05-10

    The water cycle of the southwestern United States (SW) is dominated by winter storms that maintain a positive annual net precipitation. Analysis of the control and future climate from four pairs of regional and global climate models (RCMs and GCMs) shows that the RCMs simulate a higher fraction of transient eddy moisture fluxes because the hydrodynamic instabilities associated with flow over complex terrain are better resolved. Under global warming, this enables the RCMs to capture the response of transient eddies to increased atmospheric stability that allows more moisture to converge on the windward side of the mountains by blocking. As a result, RCMs simulate enhanced transient eddy moisture convergence in the SW compared to GCMs, although both robustly simulate drying due to enhanced moisture divergence by the divergent mean flow in a warmer climate. This enhanced convergence leads to reduced susceptibility to hydrological change in the RCMs compared to GCMs.

  19. Global climate feedbacks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Manowitz, B.

    1990-10-01

    The important physical, chemical, and biological events that affect global climate change occur on a mesoscale -- requiring high spatial resolution for their analysis. The Department of Energy has formulated two major initiatives under the US Global Change Program: ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurements), and CHAMMP (Computer Hardware Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics). ARM is designed to use ground and air-craft based observations to document profiles of atmospheric composition, clouds, and radiative fluxes. With research and models of important physical processes, ARM will delineate the relationships between trace gases, aerosol and cloud structure, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, and will improve the parameterization of global circulation models. The present GCMs do not model important feedbacks, including those from clouds, oceans, and land processes. The purpose of this workshop is to identify such potential feedbacks, to evaluate the uncertainties in the feedback processes (and, if possible, to parameterize the feedback processes so that they can be treated in a GCM), and to recommend research programs that will reduce the uncertainties in important feedback processes. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases.

  20. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SunShot Grand Challenge: Regional Test Centers Global Climate & Energy Home/Tag:Global Climate & Energy - Electricity use by water service sector and county. Shown are electricity use by (a) large-scale conveyance, (b) groundwater irrigation pumping, (c) surface water irrigation pumping, (d) drinking water, and (e) wastewater. Aggregate electricity use across these sectors (f) is also mapped. Permalink Gallery Sandians Recognized in Environmental Science & Technology's Best Paper

  1. A Global Climate Model Agent for High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wood, Lynn S.; Daily, Jeffrey A.; Henry, Michael J.; Palmer, Bruce J.; Schuchardt, Karen L.; Dazlich, Donald A.; Heikes, Ross P.; Randall, David

    2015-02-01

    Fine cell granularity in modern climate models can produce terabytes of data in each snapshot, causing significant I/O overhead. To address this issue, a method of reducing the I/O latency of high-resolution climate models by identifying and selectively outputting regions of interest is presented. Working with a Global Cloud Resolving Model and running with up to 10240 processors on a Cray XE6, this method provides significant I/O bandwidth reduction depending on the frequency of writes and size of the region of interest. The implementation challenges of determining global parameters in a strictly core-localized model and properly formatting output files that only contain subsections of the global grid are addressed, as well as the overall bandwidth impact and benefits of the method. The gains in I/O throughput provided by this method allow dual output rates for high-resolution climate models: a low-frequency global snapshot as well as a high-frequency regional snapshot when events of particular interest occur.

  2. Accounting for Global Climate Model Projection Uncertainty in Modern Statistical Downscaling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johannesson, G

    2010-03-17

    Future climate change has emerged as a national and a global security threat. To carry out the needed adaptation and mitigation steps, a quantification of the expected level of climate change is needed, both at the global and the regional scale; in the end, the impact of climate change is felt at the local/regional level. An important part of such climate change assessment is uncertainty quantification. Decision and policy makers are not only interested in 'best guesses' of expected climate change, but rather probabilistic quantification (e.g., Rougier, 2007). For example, consider the following question: What is the probability that the average summer temperature will increase by at least 4 C in region R if global CO{sub 2} emission increases by P% from current levels by time T? It is a simple question, but one that remains very difficult to answer. It is answering these kind of questions that is the focus of this effort. The uncertainty associated with future climate change can be attributed to three major factors: (1) Uncertainty about future emission of green house gasses (GHG). (2) Given a future GHG emission scenario, what is its impact on the global climate? (3) Given a particular evolution of the global climate, what does it mean for a particular location/region? In what follows, we assume a particular GHG emission scenario has been selected. Given the GHG emission scenario, the current batch of the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is used to simulate future climate under this scenario, yielding an ensemble of future climate projections (which reflect, to some degree our uncertainty of being able to simulate future climate give a particular GHG scenario). Due to the coarse-resolution nature of the GCM projections, they need to be spatially downscaled for regional impact assessments. To downscale a given GCM projection, two methods have emerged: dynamical downscaling and statistical (empirical) downscaling (SDS). Dynamic downscaling involves configuring and running a regional climate model (RCM) nested within a given GCM projection (i.e., the GCM provides bounder conditions for the RCM). On the other hand, statistical downscaling aims at establishing a statistical relationship between observed local/regional climate variables of interest and synoptic (GCM-scale) climate predictors. The resulting empirical relationship is then applied to future GCM projections. A comparison of the pros and cons of dynamical versus statistical downscaling is outside the scope of this effort, but has been extensively studied and the reader is referred to Wilby et al. (1998); Murphy (1999); Wood et al. (2004); Benestad et al. (2007); Fowler et al. (2007), and references within those. The scope of this effort is to study methodology, a statistical framework, to propagate and account for GCM uncertainty in regional statistical downscaling assessment. In particular, we will explore how to leverage an ensemble of GCM projections to quantify the impact of the GCM uncertainty in such an assessment. There are three main component to this effort: (1) gather the necessary climate-related data for a regional SDS study, including multiple GCM projections, (2) carry out SDS, and (3) assess the uncertainty. The first step is carried out using tools written in the Python programming language, while analysis tools were developed in the statistical programming language R; see Figure 1.

  3. Agriculture and Climate Change in Global Scenarios: Why Don't the Models Agree

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Gerald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Calvin, Katherine V.; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; Mueller, C.; Reilly, J. M.; Robertson, Richard; Sands, Ronald; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs makes direct use of weather inputs. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes of key variables such as prices, production, and trade. These divergent outcomes arise from differences in model inputs and model specification. The goal of this paper is to review climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By providing common productivity drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes are reduced. All models show higher prices in 2050 because of negative productivity shocks from climate change. The magnitude of the price increases, and the adaptation responses, differ significantly across the various models. Substantial differences exist in the structural parameters affecting demand, area, and yield, and should be a topic for future research.

  4. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  5. Global warming and climate change - predictive models for temperate and tropical regions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Malini, B.H.

    1997-12-31

    Based on the assumption of 4{degree}C increase of global temperature by the turn of 21st century due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases an attempt is made to study the possible variations in different climatic regimes. The predictive climatic water balance model for Hokkaido island of Japan (a temperate zone) indicates the possible occurrence of water deficit for two to three months, which is a unknown phenomenon in this region at present. Similarly, India which represents tropical region also will experience much drier climates with increased water deficit conditions. As a consequence, the thermal region of Hokkaido which at present is mostly Tundra and Micro thermal will change into a Meso thermal category. Similarly, the moisture regime which at present supports per humid (A2, A3 and A4) and Humid (B4) climates can support A1, B4, B3, B2 and B1 climates indicating a shift towards drier side of the climatic spectrum. Further, the predictive modes of both the regions have indicated increased evapotranspiration rates. Although there is not much of change in the overall thermal characteristics of the Indian region the moisture regime indicates a clear shift towards the aridity in the country.

  6. Assessing the Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Pacific Storm Track Using a Multiscale Global Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan; Molina, Mario J.

    2014-05-13

    Atmospheric aerosols impact weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track using a multi-scale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and pre-industrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by - 2.5 and + 1.3 W m-2, respectively, by emission changes from pre-industrial to present day, and an increased cloud-top height indicates invigorated mid-latitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides for the first time a global perspective of the impacts of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multi-scale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on the global scale.

  7. Collaborative Proposal: Transforming How Climate System Models are Used: A Global, Multi-Resolution Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Estep, Donald

    2013-04-15

    Despite the great interest in regional modeling for both weather and climate applications, regional modeling is not yet at the stage that it can be used routinely and effectively for climate modeling of the ocean. The overarching goal of this project is to transform how climate models are used by developing and implementing a robust, efficient, and accurate global approach to regional ocean modeling. To achieve this goal, we will use theoretical and computational means to resolve several basic modeling and algorithmic issues. The first task is to develop techniques for transitioning between parameterized and high-fidelity regional ocean models as the discretization grid transitions from coarse to fine regions. The second task is to develop estimates for the error in scientifically relevant quantities of interest that provide a systematic way to automatically determine where refinement is needed in order to obtain accurate simulations of dynamic and tracer transport in regional ocean models. The third task is to develop efficient, accurate, and robust time-stepping schemes for variable spatial resolution discretizations used in regional ocean models of dynamics and tracer transport. The fourth task is to develop frequency-dependent eddy viscosity finite element and discontinuous Galerkin methods and study their performance and effectiveness for simulation of dynamics and tracer transport in regional ocean models. These four projects share common difficulties and will be approach using a common computational and mathematical toolbox. This is a multidisciplinary project involving faculty and postdocs from Colorado State University, Florida State University, and Penn State University along with scientists from Los Alamos National Laboratory. The completion of the tasks listed within the discussion of the four sub-projects will go a long way towards meeting our goal of developing superior regional ocean models that will transform how climate system models are used.

  8. Sensitivity of a global climate model to the critical Richardson number in the boundary layer parameterization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Ning; Liu, Yangang; Gao, Zhiqiu; Li, Dan

    2015-04-27

    The critical bulk Richardson number (Ricr) is an important parameter in planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes used in many climate models. This paper examines the sensitivity of a Global Climate Model, the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model, BCC_AGCM to Ricr. The results show that the simulated global average of PBL height increases nearly linearly with Ricr, with a change of about 114 m for a change of 0.5 in Ricr. The surface sensible (latent) heat flux decreases (increases) as Ricr increases. The influence of Ricr on surface air temperature and specific humidity is not significant. The increasing Ricr may affect the location of the Westerly Belt in the Southern Hemisphere. Further diagnosis reveals that changes in Ricr affect stratiform and convective precipitations differently. Increasing Ricr leads to an increase in the stratiform precipitation but a decrease in the convective precipitation. Significant changes of convective precipitation occur over the inter-tropical convergence zone, while changes of stratiform precipitation mostly appear over arid land such as North Africa and Middle East.

  9. On the characteristics of aerosol indirect effect based on dynamic regimes in global climate models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, S.; Wang, M.; Ghan, S. J.; Ding, A.; Wang, H.; Zhang, K.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.; Ferrachat, S.; Takeamura, T.; et al

    2015-09-02

    Aerosol-cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity (?500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strong large-scale ascendmore(?500 ?1) and low clouds (stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus) where the models differ most. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing is also found to differ significantly among different regimes. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing in ascending regimes is as large as that in stratocumulus regimes, which indicates that regimes with strong large-scale ascend are as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. It is further shown that shortwave aerosol indirect forcing over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate (> 0.1 mm d?1) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64 to nearly 100 %). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes than that globally, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.less

  10. Sensitivity of a global climate model to the critical Richardson number in the boundary layer parameterization

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Ning; Liu, Yangang; Gao, Zhiqiu; Li, Dan

    2015-04-27

    The critical bulk Richardson number (Ricr) is an important parameter in planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes used in many climate models. This paper examines the sensitivity of a Global Climate Model, the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model, BCC_AGCM to Ricr. The results show that the simulated global average of PBL height increases nearly linearly with Ricr, with a change of about 114 m for a change of 0.5 in Ricr. The surface sensible (latent) heat flux decreases (increases) as Ricr increases. The influence of Ricr on surface air temperature and specific humidity is not significant. The increasingmore » Ricr may affect the location of the Westerly Belt in the Southern Hemisphere. Further diagnosis reveals that changes in Ricr affect stratiform and convective precipitations differently. Increasing Ricr leads to an increase in the stratiform precipitation but a decrease in the convective precipitation. Significant changes of convective precipitation occur over the inter-tropical convergence zone, while changes of stratiform precipitation mostly appear over arid land such as North Africa and Middle East.« less

  11. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia, DOE Energy Storage Program, GeneSiC Semiconductor, U.S. Army ARDEC: Ultra-High-Voltage Silicon Carbide Thyristors Capabilities, Distribution Grid Integration, Energy, Energy Efficiency, Energy Storage Systems, Global Climate & Energy, Grid Integration, Infrastructure Security, Materials Science, Partnership, Research & Capabilities, SMART Grid, Systems Engineering, Transmission Grid Integration Sandia, DOE Energy Storage Program, GeneSiC Semiconductor, U.S. Army ARDEC:

  12. Evaluating Clouds, Aerosols, and their Interactions in Three Global Climate Models using COSP and Satellite Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ban-Weiss, George; Jin, Ling; Bauer, S.; Bennartz, Ralph; Liu, Xiaohong; Zhang, Kai; Ming, Yi; Guo, Huan; Jiang, Jonathan

    2014-09-23

    Accurately representing aerosol-cloud interactions in global climate models is challenging. As parameterizations evolve, it is important to evaluate their performance with appropriate use of observations. In this work we compare aerosols, clouds, and their interactions in three climate models (AM3, CAM5, ModelE) to MODIS satellite observations. Modeled cloud properties were diagnosed using the CFMIP Observations Simulator Package (COSP). Cloud droplet number concentrations (N) were derived using the same algorithm for both satellite-simulated model values and observations. We find that aerosol optical depth tau simulated by models is similar to observations. For N, AM3 and CAM5 capture the observed spatial pattern of higher values in near-coast versus remote ocean regions, though modeled values in general are higher than observed. In contrast, ModelE simulates lower N in most near-coast versus remote regions. Aerosol- cloud interactions were computed as the sensitivity of N to tau for marine liquid clouds off the coasts of South Africa and Eastern Asia where aerosol pollution varies in time. AM3 and CAM5 are in most cases more sensitive than observations, while the sensitivity for ModelE is statistically insignificant. This widely used sensitivity could be subject to misinterpretation due to the confounding influence of meteorology on both aerosols and clouds. A simple framework for assessing the N tau sensitivity at constant meteorology illustrates that observed sensitivity can change from positive to statistically insignificant when including the confounding influence of relative humidity. Satellite simulated values of N were compared to standard model output and found to be higher with a bias of 83 cm-3.

  13. Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tavoni, Massimo; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Aboumahboub, Tino; Bowen, Alex; Calvin, Katherine V.; Campiglio, Emanuele; Kober, Tom; Jewell, Jessica; Luderer, Gunnar; Marangoni, Giacomo; McCollum, David; van Sluisveld, Mariesse; Zimmer, Anne; van der Zwaan, Bob

    2014-12-15

    Integrated assessment models can help in quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. This paper reviews scenario results from model intercomparison projects to explore different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to the 2C target. We provide key information for all the major economies, such as the year of emission peaking, regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. We highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.

  14. Modelling vegetation dynamics at global scale due to climate changes: Comparison of two approaches

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Belotelov, N.V.; Bogatyrev, B.G.; Lobanov, A.I.

    1996-12-31

    Climate changes will influence vegetation dynamics. One of the ways of forecasting these changes is the creation of mathematical models describing vegetation dynamics. Computer experiments can then be conducted under climate change scenarios. Two main approaches are used to create such models. The first approach is based on a bioclimatic dynamic approach. The second approach is based on modelling the main eco-physiological processes. The bioclimatic dynamic approach consists of hypotheses about vegetation types or biomes, and their interrelationships with climate. In the eco-physiological approach, a detailed description of the processes, such as production, mortality, plants migration and their competition is presented. A number of computer experiments has been conducted for several climatic scenario for Russia and the whole world. A qualitative comparison of the results with the results of an earlier bioclimatic model has been done.

  15. Global Climate Change Institute | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Change Institute Jump to: navigation, search Name: Global Climate Change Institute Place: Tsinghua University, Beijing Municipality, China Zip: 100084 Product: Global Climate...

  16. Brazil Interministerial Commission on Global Climate Change ...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Interministerial Commission on Global Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Name: Brazil Interministerial Commission on Global Climate Change Place: Distrito Federal...

  17. Global climate change and international security

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  18. Global distribution and climate forcing of marine organic aerosol: 1. Model improvements and evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meskhidze, N.; Xu, J.; Gantt, Brett; Zhang, Yang; Nenes, Athanasios; Ghan, Steven J.; Liu, Xiaohong; Easter, Richard C.; Zaveri, Rahul A.

    2011-11-23

    Marine organic aerosol emissions have been implemented and evaluated within the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR)'s Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's 7-mode Modal Aerosol Module (MAM-7). Emissions of marine primary organic aerosols (POA), phytoplanktonproduced isoprene- and monoterpenes-derived secondary organic aerosols (SOA) and methane sulfonate (MS{sup -}) are shown to affect surface concentrations of organic aerosols in remote marine regions. Global emissions of submicron marine POA is estimated to be 7.9 and 9.4 Tg yr{sup -1}, for the Gantt et al. (2011) and Vignati et al. (2010) emission parameterizations, respectively. Marine sources of SOA and particulate MS{sup -} (containing both sulfur and carbon atoms) contribute an additional 0.2 and 5.1 Tg yr{sup -1}, respectively. Widespread areas over productive waters of the Northern Atlantic, Northern Pacific, and the Southern Ocean show marine-source submicron organic aerosol surface concentrations of 100 ngm{sup -3}, with values up to 400 ngm{sup -3} over biologically productive areas. Comparison of long-term surface observations of water insoluble organic matter (WIOM) with POA concentrations from the two emission parameterizations shows that despite revealed discrepancies (often more than a factor of 2), both Gantt et al. (2011) and Vignati et al. (2010) formulations are able to capture the magnitude of marine organic aerosol concentrations, with the Gantt et al. (2011) parameterization attaining better seasonality. Model simulations show that the mixing state of the marine POA can impact the surface number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The largest increases (up to 20 %) in CCN (at a supersaturation (S) of 0.2 %) number concentration are obtained over biologically productive ocean waters when marine organic aerosol is assumed to be externally mixed with sea-salt. Assuming marine organics are internally-mixed with sea-salt provides diverse results with increases and decreases in the concentration of CCN over different parts of the ocean. The sign of the CCN change due to the addition of marine organics to seasalt aerosol is determined by the relative significance of the increase in mean modal diameter due to addition of mass, and the decrease in particle hygroscopicity due to compositional changes in marine aerosol. Based on emerging evidence for increased CCN concentration over biologically active surface ocean areas/periods, our study suggests that treatment of sea spray in global climate models (GCMs) as an internal mixture of marine organic aerosols and sea-salt will likely lead to an underestimation in CCN number concentration.

  19. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy Nuclear

  20. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-08-25

    Abstract In this study, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change impact assessment.

  1. Modeling U.S. Energy Use Changes with Global Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadley, Stanton W; Erickson III, David J; Hernandez Figueroa, Jose L

    2006-09-01

    Using a general circulation model of Earth climate (PCM-IBIS) to drive an energy use model (DD-NEMS), we calculated the energy use changes for each year from 2003-2025 for the nine U.S. Census regions. We used five scenarios: 1) a reference with no change in temperatures from the 1970-2003 average, 2) a gradual 1 F rise in temperature by 2025, 3) a gradual 3 F rise by 2025, 4) a climate simulation with low temperature response to CO2 doubling in the atmosphere, and 5) a climate simulation with a more extreme response. The low-?T scenario had a cumulative reduction in energy of 2.1 Quads but an increase in cost of $14.8 billion. The northern states had reductions in cost over the entire period, but most other regions had increases in costs because increases in cooling costs outweighed reductions in heating and other energy uses. Higher temperature sensitivity resulted in increased warming, especially in the winter months. Because heating needs decreased, total energy requirements declined by a cumulative 4.2 Quads. However, total cost still increased $6.1 billion and carbon emissions still rose as coal-based electricity for cooling needs grew.

  2. Global Climate Change and Agriculture

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Izaurralde, Roberto C.

    2009-01-01

    The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released in 2007 significantly increased our confidence about the role that humans play in forcing climate change. There is now a high degree of confidence that the (a) current atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) far exceed those of the pre-industrial era, (b) global increases in CO2 arise mainly from fossil fuel use and land use change while those of CH4 and N2O originate primarily from agricultural activities, and (c) the net effect of human activities since 1750 has led to a warming of the lower layers of the atmosphere, with an increased radiative forcing of 1.6 W m-2. Depending on the scenario of human population growth and global development, mean global temperatures could rise between 1.8 and 4.0 C by the end of the 21st century.

  3. Do Coupled Climate Models Correctly SImulate the Upward Branch of the Deept Ocean Global Conveyor?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sarmiento, Jorge L; Downes, Stephanie; Bianchi, Daniele

    2013-01-17

    The large-scale meridional overturning circulation (MOC) connects the deep ocean, a major reservoir of carbon, to the other components of the climate system and must therefore be accurately represented in Earth System Models. Our project aims to address the specific question of the pathways and mechanisms controlling the upwelling branch of the MOC, a subject of significant disagreement between models and observational syntheses, and among general circulation models. Observations of these pathways are limited, particularly in regions of complex hydrography such as the Southern Ocean. As such, we rely on models to examine theories of the overturning circulation, both physically and biogeochemically. This grant focused on a particular aspect of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) where there is currently significant disagreement between models and observationally based analyses of the MOC, and amongst general circulation models. In particular, the research focused on addressing the following questions: 1. Where does the deep water that sinks in the polar regions rise to the surface? 2. What processes are responsible for this rise? 3. Do state-of-the-art coupled GCMs capture these processes? Our research had three key components: observational synthesis, model development and model analysis. In this final report we outline the key results from these areas of research for the 2007 to 2012 grant period. The research described here was carried out primarily by graduate student, Daniele Bianchi (now a Postdoc at McGill University, Canada), and Postdoc Stephanie Downes (now a Research Fellow at The Australian national University, Australia). Additional support was provided for programmers Jennifer Simeon as well as Rick Slater.

  4. Integrated Assessment of Global Climate Change | U.S. DOE Office of Science

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    (SC) Integrated Assessment of Global Climate Change Biological and Environmental Research (BER) BER Home About Research Biological Systems Science Division (BSSD) Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD) ARM Climate Research Facility Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program Data Management Earth System Modeling (ESM) Program William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) Integrated Assessment of Global Climate Change Regional & Global Climate Modeling

  5. Final scientific report for DOE award title: Improving the Representation of Ice Sedimentation Rates in Global Climate Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mitchell, David L.

    2013-09-05

    It is well known that cirrus clouds play a major role in regulating the earth’s climate, but the details of how this works are just beginning to be understood. This project targeted the main property of cirrus clouds that influence climate processes; the ice fall speed. That is, this project improves the representation of the mass-weighted ice particle fall velocity, Vm, in climate models, used to predict future climate on global and regional scales. Prior to 2007, the dominant sizes of ice particles in cirrus clouds were poorly understood, making it virtually impossible to predict how cirrus clouds interact with sunlight and thermal radiation. Due to several studies investigating the performance of optical probes used to measure the ice particle size distribution (PSD), as well as the remote sensing results from our last ARM project, it is now well established that the anomalously high concentrations of small ice crystals often reported prior to 2007 were measurement artifacts. Advances in the design and data processing of optical probes have greatly reduced these ice artifacts that resulted from the shattering of ice particles on the probe tips and/or inlet tube, and PSD measurements from one of these improved probes (the 2-dimensional Stereo or 2D-S probe) are utilized in this project to parameterize Vm for climate models. Our original plan in the proposal was to parameterize the ice PSD (in terms of temperature and ice water content) and ice particle mass and projected area (in terms of mass- and area-dimensional power laws or m-D/A-D expressions) since these are the microphysical properties that determine Vm, and then proceed to calculate Vm from these parameterized properties. But the 2D-S probe directly measures ice particle projected area and indirectly estimates ice particle mass for each size bin. It soon became apparent that the original plan would introduce more uncertainty in the Vm calculations than simply using the 2D-S measurements to directly calculate Vm. By calculating Vm directly from the measured PSD, ice particle projected area and estimated mass, more accurate estimates of Vm are obtained. These Vm values were then parameterized for climate models by relating them to (1) sampling temperature and ice water content (IWC) and (2) the effective diameter (De) of the ice PSD. Parameterization (1) is appropriate for climate models having single-moment microphysical schemes whereas (2) is appropriate for double-moment microphysical schemes and yields more accurate Vm estimates. These parameterizations were developed for tropical cirrus clouds, Arctic cirrus, mid-latitude synoptic cirrus and mid-latitude anvil cirrus clouds based on field campaigns in these regions. An important but unexpected result of this research was the discovery of microphysical evidence indicating the mechanisms by which ice crystals are produced in cirrus clouds. This evidence, derived from PSD measurements, indicates that homogeneous freezing ice nucleation dominates in mid-latitude synoptic cirrus clouds, whereas heterogeneous ice nucleation processes dominate in mid-latitude anvil cirrus. Based on these findings, De was parameterized in terms of temperature (T) for conditions dominated by (1) homo- and (2) heterogeneous ice nucleation. From this, an experiment was designed for global climate models (GCMs). The net radiative forcing from cirrus clouds may be affected by the means ice is produced (homo- or heterogeneously), and this net forcing contributes to climate sensitivity (i.e. the change in mean global surface temperature resulting from a doubling of CO2). The objective of this GCM experiment was to determine how a change in ice nucleation mode affects the predicted global radiation balance. In the first simulation (Run 1), the De-T relationship for homogeneous nucleation is used at all latitudes, while in the second simulation (Run 2), the De-T relationship for heterogeneous nucleation is used at all latitudes. For both runs, Vm is calculated from De. Two GCMs were used; the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) and a European GCM known as ECHAM5 (thanks to our European colleagues who collaborated with us). Similar results were obtained from both GCMs in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, with a net cooling of ~ 1.0 W m-2 due to heterogeneous nucleation, relative to Run 1. The mean global net cooling was 2.4 W m-2 for the ECHAM5 GCM while CAM5 produced a mean global net cooling of about 0.8 W m-2. This dependence of the radiation balance on nucleation mode is substantial when one considers the direct radiative forcing from a CO2 doubling is 4 W m-2. The differences between GCMs in mean global net cooling estimates may demonstrate a need for improving the representation of cirrus clouds in GCMs, including the coupling between microphysical and radiative properties. Unfortunately, after completing this GCM experiment, we learned from the company that provided the 2D-S microphysical data that the data was corrupted due to a computer program coding problem. Therefore the microphysical data had to be reprocessed and reanalyzed, and the GCM experiments were redone under our current ASR project but using an improved experimental design.

  6. Climate Effects of Global Land Cover Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gibbard, S G; Caldeira, K; Bala, G; Phillips, T; Wickett, M

    2005-08-24

    There are two competing effects of global land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to heating when changing from grass/croplands to forest, and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate in a global land cover change scenario. We have performed coupled land/ocean/atmosphere simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model. We find that replacement of current vegetation by trees on a global basis would lead to a global annual mean warming of 1.6 C, nearly 75% of the warming produced under a doubled CO{sub 2} concentration, while global replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4 C. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming. In particular, high latitude forests probably have a net warming effect on the Earth's climate.

  7. A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Schwarber, Adria; Link, Robert P.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2015-04-01

    Simple climate models play an integral role in the policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector v1.0, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global-scale earth system processes. Hector has a three-part main carbon cycle: a one-pool atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model's terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production and respiration fluxes, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector actively solves the inorganicmore » carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air–sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO2], radiative forcing, and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with equivalent rates of change of key variables over time compared to current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Hector's flexibility, open-source nature, and modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.« less

  8. A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Schwarber, Adria; Link, Robert P.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2015-04-01

    Simple climate models play an integral role in the policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector v1.0, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global-scale earth system processes. Hector has a three-part main carbon cycle: a one-pool atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model's terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production and respiration fluxes, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector actively solves the inorganic carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air–sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO2], radiative forcing, and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with equivalent rates of change of key variables over time compared to current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Hector's flexibility, open-source nature, and modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.

  9. Use of North American and European air quality networks to evaluate global chemistry-climate modeling of surface ozone

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Schnell, J. L.; Prather, M. J.; Josse, B.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L. W.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Bergmann, D.; Zeng, G.; Plummer, D. A.; Sudo, K.; et al

    2015-04-16

    We test the current generation of global chemistry-climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1° × 1° grid cells, allowing commensurate model-measurement comparison. Models are generally biased high during all hours of the day and in all regions. Most models simulate the shape of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles well, correctly matching the timing of hourly (~ 15:00) and monthly (mid-June) peak surface ozone abundance. The amplitude of these cycles is less successfully matched. The observedmore » summertime diurnal range (~ 25 ppb) is underestimated in all regions by about 7 ppb, and the observed seasonal range (~ 21 ppb) is underestimated by about 5 ppb except in the most polluted regions where it is overestimated by about 5 ppb. The models generally match the pattern of the observed summertime ozone enhancement, but they overestimate its magnitude in most regions. Most models capture the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes, correctly showing that about 80% of individual extreme events occur in large-scale, multi-day episodes of more than 100 grid cells. The observed linear relationship showing increases in ozone by up to 6 ppb for larger-sized episodes is also matched.« less

  10. Use of North American and European air quality networks to evaluate global chemistry–climate modeling of surface ozone

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Schnell, J. L.; Prather, M. J.; Josse, B.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L. W.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Bergmann, D.; Zeng, G.; Plummer, D. A.; Sudo, K.; et al

    2015-09-25

    We test the current generation of global chemistry–climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1° × 1° grid cells, allowing commensurate model–measurement comparison. Models are generally biased high during all hours of the day and in all regions. Most models simulate the shape of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles well, correctly matching the timing of hourly (~ 15:00 local time (LT)) and monthly (mid-June) peak surface ozone abundance. The amplitude of these cycles is less successfullymore » matched. The observed summertime diurnal range (~ 25 ppb) is underestimated in all regions by about 7 ppb, and the observed seasonal range (~ 21 ppb) is underestimated by about 5 ppb except in the most polluted regions, where it is overestimated by about 5 ppb. The models generally match the pattern of the observed summertime ozone enhancement, but they overestimate its magnitude in most regions. Most models capture the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes, correctly showing that about 80 % of individual extreme events occur in large-scale, multi-day episodes of more than 100 grid cells. The models also match the observed linear relationship between episode size and a measure of episode intensity, which shows increases in ozone abundance by up to 6 ppb for larger-sized episodes. We conclude that the skill of the models evaluated here provides confidence in their projections of future surface ozone.« less

  11. A Cross-model Comparison of Global Long-term Technology Diffusion under a 2?C Climate Change Control Target

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    van der Zwaan, Bob; Rosler, Hilke; Kober, Tom; Aboumahboub, Tino; Calvin, Katherine V.; Gernaat, David; Marangoni, Giacomo; McCollum, David

    2013-11-01

    We investigate the long-term global energy technology diffusion patterns required to reach a stringent climate change target with a maximum average atmospheric temperature increase of 2C. If the anthropogenic temperature increase is to be limited to 2C, total CO2 emissions have to be reduced massively, so as to reach substantial negative values during the second half of the century. Particularly power sector CO2 emissions should become negative from around 2050 onwards according to most models used for this analysis in order to compensate for GHG emissions in other sectors where abatement is more costly. The annual additional capacity deployment intensity (expressed in GW/yr) for solar and wind energy until 2030 needs to be around that recently observed for coal-based power plants, and will have to be several times higher in the period 20302050. Relatively high agreement exists across models in terms of the aggregated low-carbon energy system cost requirements on the supply side until 2050, which amount to about 50 trillion US$.

  12. Sandia Energy - Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Climate Science and Actuarial Practice" This Fall event was a follow-up to a Climate and Environment Program Area meeting with the California governor's office in July. There, the...

  13. A tropical influence on global climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schneider, E.K.; Kirtman, B.P.; Lindzen, R.S.

    1997-05-15

    A potential influence of tropical sea surface temperature on the global climate response to a doubling of the CO{sub 2} concentration is tested using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab mixed layer ocean. The warming is significantly reduced when sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific cold tongue region between latitudes 2.25{degrees}N and 2.25{degrees}S are held at the control simulation values. Warming of the global mean temperature outside of the cold tongue region is reduced from 2.4{degrees}C in the unconstrained case to 1.9{degrees}C when the sea surface temperature constraint is applied. The decrease in the warming results from a positive net heat flux into the ocean cold tongue region and implicit heat storage in the subsurface ocean, induced by horizontal atmospheric heat fluxes. The reduced surface temperature warming outside of the cold tongue region is due to reduction in the downward longwave radiative flux at the surface, caused in turn by reduced atmospheric temperature and moisture. The global mean surface temperature responds to the heat storage in the ocean as if the global mean radiative forcing due to the doubled CO{sub 2} (approximately 4 W m{sup {minus}2}) was reduced by the value of the global mean heat flux into the ocean. This mechanism also provides a possible explanation for the observed high correlation on interannual timescales between the global mean tropospheric temperature and sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific. The results emphasize the importance of correctly modeling the dynamical processes in the ocean and atmosphere that help determine the sea surface temperature in the equatorial eastern Pacific, in addition to the thermodynamical processes, in projecting global warming. 23 refs., 8 figs.

  14. Cirrus clouds in a global climate model with a statistical cirrus cloud scheme

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Minghuai; Penner, Joyce E.

    2010-06-21

    A statistical cirrus cloud scheme that accounts for mesoscale temperature perturbations is implemented in a coupled aerosol and atmospheric circulation model to better represent both subgrid-scale supersaturation and cloud formation. This new scheme treats the effects of aerosol on cloud formation and ice freezing in an improved manner, and both homogeneous freezing and heterogeneous freezing are included. The scheme is able to better simulate the observed probability distribution of relative humidity compared to the scheme that was implemented in an older version of the model. Heterogeneous ice nuclei (IN) are shown to decrease the frequency of occurrence of supersaturation, and improve the comparison with observations at 192 hPa. Homogeneous freezing alone can not reproduce observed ice crystal number concentrations at low temperatures (<205 K), but the addition of heterogeneous IN improves the comparison somewhat. Increases in heterogeneous IN affect both high level cirrus clouds and low level liquid clouds. Increases in cirrus clouds lead to a more cloudy and moist lower troposphere with less precipitation, effects which we associate with the decreased convective activity. The change in the net cloud forcing is not very sensitive to the change in ice crystal concentrations, but the change in the net radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere is still large because of changes in water vapor. Changes in the magnitude of the assumed mesoscale temperature perturbations by 25% alter the ice crystal number concentrations and the net radiative fluxes by an amount that is comparable to that from a factor of 10 change in the heterogeneous IN number concentrations. Further improvements on the representation of mesoscale temperature perturbations, heterogeneous IN and the competition between homogeneous freezing and heterogeneous freezing are needed.

  15. Global Catastrophes in Perspective: Asteroid Impacts vs. Climate...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Global Catastrophes in Perspective: Asteroid Impacts vs. Climate Change. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Global Catastrophes in Perspective: Asteroid Impacts vs. Climate ...

  16. Financing a Global Deal on Climate Change | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Financing a Global Deal on Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Financing a Global Deal on Climate Change AgencyCompany Organization: United...

  17. Pew Center on Global Climate Change | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Pew Center on Global Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Name: Pew Center on Global Climate Change Place: Arlington, Virginia Zip: 22201 Product: Established in 1998 as a...

  18. Financing Global Climate Change Mitigation | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Climate Change Mitigation Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Financing Global Climate Change Mitigation AgencyCompany Organization: United Nations...

  19. Comparison of the Vertical Velocity Used to Calculate the Cloud Droplet Number Concentration in a Cloud Resolving and a Global Climate Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Comparison of the Vertical Velocity used to Calculate the Cloud Droplet Number Concentration in a Cloud-Resolving and a Global Climate Model H. Guo, J. E. Penner, M. Herzog, and X. Liu Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Michigan Introduction Anthropogenic aerosols are effective cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The availability of CCN affects the initial cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) and droplet size; therefore, cloud optical

  20. Global climate change and international security.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  1. Global climate change crosses state boundaries

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Changnon, S.A.

    1996-12-31

    The hot, dry summer of 1988 brought the specter of global warming a bit too close for comfort. {open_quotes}Scorching heat, not scientific models, attracted media attention,{close_quotes} says Stanley A. Changnon, senior scientist with the Illinois State Water Survey in Champaign, Illinois. Rising temperatures in the late 1980`s prompted individual states to begin to take action to curb greenhouse-gas emissions. A 1990 report by the National Governors Association identified two guiding principles for addressing climate change issues. {open_quotes}First, that energy policy must be at the center of any efforts to control greenhouse-gas emissions. Second, that state can...restrict emissions through state policies related to public utilities, land use, transportation, and even taxation,{close_quotes} Changnon says. Even if concerns for global warming prove to be overblown, states decided to act for broader economic and environmental reasons. Such initiatives not only save money, but they improve air quality and leave the nation more energy independent,{close_quotes} Changnon says.

  2. Greenland and Antarctic mass balances for present and doubled atmospheric CO{sub 2} from the GENESIS version-2 global climate model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thompson, S.L.; Pollard, D.

    1997-05-01

    As anthropogenic greenhouse warming occurs in the next century, changes in the mass balances of Greenland and Antarctica will probably accelerate and may have significant effects on global sea level. Recent trends and possible future changes in these mass balances have received considerable attention in the glaciological literature, but until recently relatively few general circulation modeling (GCM) studies have focused on the problem. However, there are two significant problems in using GCMs to predict mass balance distributions on ice sheets: (i) the relatively coarse GCM horizontal resolution truncates the topography of the ice-sheet flanks and smaller ice sheets such as Greenland, and (ii) the snow and ice physics in most GCMs does not include ice-sheet-specific processes such as the refreezing of meltwater. Two techniques are described that attack these problems, involving (i) an elevation-based correction to the surface meteorology and (ii) a simple a posteriori correction for the refreezing of meltwater following Pfeiffer et al. Using these techniques in a new version 2 of the Global Environmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems global climate model, the authors present global climate and ice-sheet mass-balance results from two equilibrated runs for present and doubled atmospheric CO{sub 2}. This GCM is well suited for ice-sheet mass-balance studies because (a) the surface can be represented at a finer resolution (2{degrees} lat x 2{degrees} long) than the atmospheric GCM, (b) the two correction techniques are included as part of the model, and the model`s mass balances for present-day Greenland and Antarctica are realistic. 131 refs., 23 figs., 2 tabs.

  3. Response of precipitation extremes to idealized global warming in an aqua-planet climate model: Towards robust projection across different horizontal resolutions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, F.; Collins, W.D.; Wehner, M.F.; Williamson, D.L.; Olson, J.G.

    2011-04-15

    Current climate models produce quite heterogeneous projections for the responses of precipitation extremes to future climate change. To help understand the range of projections from multimodel ensembles, a series of idealized 'aquaplanet' Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) runs have been performed with the Community Atmosphere Model CAM3. These runs have been analysed to identify the effects of horizontal resolution on precipitation extreme projections under two simple global warming scenarios. We adopt the aquaplanet framework for our simulations to remove any sensitivity to the spatial resolution of external inputs and to focus on the roles of model physics and dynamics. Results show that a uniform increase of sea surface temperature (SST) and an increase of low-to-high latitude SST gradient both lead to increase of precipitation and precipitation extremes for most latitudes. The perturbed SSTs generally have stronger impacts on precipitation extremes than on mean precipitation. Horizontal model resolution strongly affects the global warming signals in the extreme precipitation in tropical and subtropical regions but not in high latitude regions. This study illustrates that the effects of horizontal resolution have to be taken into account to develop more robust projections of precipitation extremes.

  4. Engineering change in global climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schneider, S.H.

    1996-12-31

    {open_quotes}With increased public focus on global warming and in the wake of the intense heat waves, drought, fires, and super-hurricanes that occurred in 1988 and 1989, interest in geoengineering has surged,{close_quotes} says Stephen H. Schneider, professor of biological science at Stanford University in Stanford, California. One scheme set forth in a National Research Council report proposes using 16-inch naval guns to fire aerosol shells into the stratosphere in hopes of offsetting {open_quotes}the radiative effects of increasing carbon dioxide,{close_quotes} Schneider says. Schneider, however, would prefer that we {open_quotes}seek measures that can cure our global {open_quote}addiction{close_quote} to polluting practices.{close_quotes} Rather than playing God, he says we should {open_quotes}stick to being human and pursue problem - solving methods currently within our grasp.{close_quotes} Such strategies include efforts to promote energy efficiency and reduce our reliance on automobiles.

  5. Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curry, Judith

    2015-05-21

    This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatory environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.

  6. Global fish production and climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brander, K.M.

    2007-12-11

    Current global fisheries production of {approx}160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but there is low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are giverned by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipiation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the pricipal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

  7. Global Climate Change Alliance Training Workshops on Mainstreaming...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Change Alliance Training Workshops on Mainstreaming Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Global Climate Change Alliance Training Workshop on...

  8. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  9. Effect of Terrestrial and Marine Organic Aerosol on Regional and Global Climate: Model Development, Application, and Verification with Satellite Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meskhidze, Nicholas; Zhang, Yang; Kamykowski, Daniel

    2012-03-28

    In this DOE project the improvements to parameterization of marine primary organic matter (POM) emissions, hygroscopic properties of marine POM, marine isoprene derived secondary organic aerosol (SOA) emissions, surfactant effects, new cloud droplet activation parameterization have been implemented into Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 5.0), with a seven mode aerosol module from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)???¢????????s Modal Aerosol Model (MAM7). The effects of marine aerosols derived from sea spray and ocean emitted biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) on microphysical properties of clouds were explored by conducting 10 year CAM5.0-MAM7 model simulations at a grid resolution 1.9???????°????????2.5???????° with 30 vertical layers. Model-predicted relationship between ocean physical and biological systems and the abundance of CCN in remote marine atmosphere was compared to data from the A-Train satellites (MODIS, CALIPSO, AMSR-E). Model simulations show that on average, primary and secondary organic aerosol emissions from the ocean can yield up to 20% increase in Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) at 0.2% Supersaturation, and up to 5% increases in droplet number concentration of global maritime shallow clouds. Marine organics were treated as internally or externally mixed with sea salt. Changes associated with cloud properties reduced (absolute value) the model-predicted short wave cloud forcing from -1.35 Wm-2 to -0.25 Wm-2. By using different emission scenarios, and droplet activation parameterizations, this study suggests that addition of marine primary aerosols and biologically generated reactive gases makes an important difference in radiative forcing assessments. All baseline and sensitivity simulations for 2001 and 2050 using global-through-urban WRF/Chem (GU-WRF) were completed. The main objective of these simulations was to evaluate the capability of GU-WRF for an accurate representation of the global atmosphere by exploring the most accurate configuration of physics options in GWRF for global scale modeling in 2001 at a horizontal grid resolution of 1???????° x 1???????°. GU-WRF model output was evaluated using observational datasets from a variety of sources including surface based observations (NCDC and BSRN), model reanalysis (NCEP/ NCAR Reanalysis and CMAP), and remotely-sensed data (TRMM) to evaluate the ability of GU-WRF to simulate atmospheric variables at the surface as well as aloft. Explicit treatment of nanoparticles produced from new particle formation in GU-WRF/Chem-MADRID was achieved by expanding particle size sections from 8 to 12 to cover particles with the size range of 1.16 nm to 11.6 ???????µm. Simulations with two different nucleation parameterizations were conducted for August 2002 over a global domain at a 4???????º by 5???????º horizontal resolution. The results are evaluated against field measurement data from the 2002 Aerosol Nucleation and Real Time Characterization Experiment (ANARChE) in Atlanta, Georgia, as well as satellite and reanalysis data. We have also explored the relationship between ???¢????????clean marine???¢??????? aerosol optical properties and ocean surface wind speed using remotely sensed data from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) on board the CALIPSO satellite and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on board the AQUA satellite. Detailed data analyses

  10. Regional Climate Modeling: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Yuqing; Leung, Lai R.; McGregor, John L.; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Ding, Yihui; Kimura, Fujio

    2004-12-01

    Regional climate modeling with regional climate models (RCMs) has matured over the past decade and allows for meaningful utilization in a broad spectrum of applications. In this paper, latest progresses in regional climate modeling studies are reviewed, including RCM development, applications of RCMs to dynamical downscaling for climate change assessment, seasonal climate predictions and climate process studies, and the study of regional climate predictability. Challenges and potential directions of future research in this important area are discussed, with the focus on those to which less attention has been given previously, such as the importance of ensemble simulations, further development and improvement of regional climate modeling approach, modeling extreme climate events and sub-daily variation of clouds and precipitation, model evaluation and diagnostics, applications of RCMs to climate process studies and seasonal predictions, and development of regional earth system models. It is believed that with both the demonstrated credibility of RCMs capability in reproducing not only monthly to seasonal mean climate and interannual variability but also the extreme climate events when driven by good quality reanalysis and the continuous improvements in the skill of global general circulation models (GCMs) in simulating large-scale atmospheric circulation, regional climate modeling will remain an important dynamical downscaling tool for providing the needed information for assessing climate change impacts and seasonal climate predictions, and a powerful tool for improving our understanding of regional climate processes. An internationally coordinated effort can be developed with different focuses by different groups to advance regional climate modeling studies. It is also recognized that since the final quality of the results from nested RCMs depends in part on the realism of the large-scale forcing provided by GCMs, the reduction of errors and improvement in physics parameterizations in both GCMs and RCMs remain a priority for climate modeling community.

  11. Refining climate models

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Warren, Jeff; Iversen, Colleen; Brooks, Jonathan; Ricciuto, Daniel

    2014-06-26

    Using dogwood trees, Oak Ridge National Laboratory researchers are gaining a better understanding of the role photosynthesis and respiration play in the atmospheric carbon dioxide cycle. Their findings will aid computer modelers in improving the accuracy of climate simulations.

  12. Refining climate models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Warren, Jeff; Iversen, Colleen; Brooks, Jonathan; Ricciuto, Daniel

    2012-10-31

    Using dogwood trees, Oak Ridge National Laboratory researchers are gaining a better understanding of the role photosynthesis and respiration play in the atmospheric carbon dioxide cycle. Their findings will aid computer modelers in improving the accuracy of climate simulations.

  13. Integrated Global System Modeling Framework | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    System Modeling Framework AgencyCompany Organization: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Sector: Climate, Energy Focus Area: Renewable Energy...

  14. White House Conference on Global Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-11-01

    President Clinton has directed the White House office on Environmental Policy to coordinate an interagency process to develop a plan to fulfill the commitment he made in his Earth Day address on April 21, 1993. This plan will become the cornerstone of the Climate Change Plan that will be completed shortly after the Rio Accord enters into force. The Office on Environmental Policy established the Interagency Climate Change Mitigation Group to draw on the expertise of federal agencies including the National Economic Council; the Council of Economic Advisors; the Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Office of Management and Budget; the National Security Council; the Domestic Policy Council; the Environmental Protection Agency; and the Departments of Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Interior, Treasury, Commerce, and State. Working groups have been established to examine six key policy areas: energy demand, energy supply, joint implementation, methane and other gases, sinks, and transportation. The purpose of the White House Conference on Global Climate Change was to ``tap the real-world experiences`` of diverse participants and seek ideas and information for meeting the President`s goals. During the opening session, senior administration officials defined the challenge ahead and encouraged open and frank conversation about the best possible ways to meet it.

  15. The economics of long-term global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-09-01

    This report is intended to provide an overview of economic issues and research relevant to possible, long-term global climate change. It is primarily a critical survey, not a statement of Administration or Department policy. This report should serve to indicate that economic analysis of global change is in its infancy few assertions about costs or benefits can be made with confidence. The state of the literature precludes any attempt to produce anything like a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis. Moreover, almost all the quantitative estimates regarding physical and economic effects in this report, as well as many of the qualitative assertions, are controversial. Section I provides background on greenhouse gas emissions and their likely climatic effects and on available policy instruments. Section II considers the costs of living with global change, assuming no substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Section III considers costs of reducing these emissions, though the available literature does not contain estimates of the costs of policies that would, on the assumptions of current climate models, prevent climate change altogether. The individual sections are not entirely compartmentalized, but can be read independently if necessary.

  16. Financing Innovation to Address Global Climate Change | Department of

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Energy DOE-LPO_Report_Financing-Innovation-Climate-Change.pdf More Documents & Publications LPO Financial Performance Report PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE Financing Innovation to Address Global Climate Change Powering New Markets: Utility-scale Photovoltaic Solar

  17. Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector 2002 DEER Conference ...

  18. U.S. Global Change Research Program publishes "National Climate...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    U.S. Global Change Research Program publishes "National Climate Assessment" report for United States Home > Groups > OpenEI Community Central Graham7781's picture Submitted by...

  19. Global Climate Change: Risk to Bank Loans | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Risk to Bank Loans Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Global Climate Change: Risk to Bank Loans AgencyCompany Organization: United Nations...

  20. Stanford- Global Climate and Energy Project | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    :"","visitedicon":"" Hide Map References: Stanford- Global Climate and Energy Project Web Site1 This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. Stanford- Global...

  1. Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Bitz, Cecilia M.; Shell, K. M.; Gent, P. R.; Bailey, D. A.; Danabasoglu, G.; Armour, K. C.; Holland, M. M.; Kiehl, J. T.

    2012-05-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.20°C for 1° horizontal resolution in each component. This is about a half degree Celsius higher than in the previous version (CCSM3). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 1° resolution is 1.72°C, which is about 0.2°C higher than in CCSM3. These higher climate sensitivities in CCSM4 cannot be explained by the change to a preindustrial baseline climate. We use the radiative kernel technique to show that from CCSM3 to CCSM4, the global mean lapse-rate feedback declines in magnitude, and the shortwave cloud feedback increases. These twomore » warming effects are partially canceled by cooling due to slight decreases in the global mean water-vapor feedback and longwave cloud feedback from CCSM3 to CCSM4. A new formulation of the mixed-layer, slab ocean model in CCSM4 attempts to reproduce the SST and sea ice climatology from an integration with a full-depth ocean, and it is integrated with a dynamic sea ice model. These new features allow an isolation of the influence of ocean dynamical changes on the climate response when comparing integrations with the slab ocean and full-depth ocean. The transient climate response of the full-depth ocean version is 0.54 of the equilibrium climate sensitivity when estimated with the new slab ocean model version for both CCSM3 and CCSM4. We argue the ratio is the same in both versions because they have about the same zonal mean pattern of change in ocean surface heat flux, which broadly resembles the zonal mean pattern of net feedback strength.« less

  2. Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bitz, Cecilia M.; Shell, K. M.; Gent, P. R.; Bailey, D. A.; Danabasoglu, G.; Armour, K. C.; Holland, M. M.; Kiehl, J. T.

    2012-05-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.20°C for 1° horizontal resolution in each component. This is about a half degree Celsius higher than in the previous version (CCSM3). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 1° resolution is 1.72°C, which is about 0.2°C higher than in CCSM3. These higher climate sensitivities in CCSM4 cannot be explained by the change to a preindustrial baseline climate. We use the radiative kernel technique to show that from CCSM3 to CCSM4, the global mean lapse-rate feedback declines in magnitude, and the shortwave cloud feedback increases. These two warming effects are partially canceled by cooling due to slight decreases in the global mean water-vapor feedback and longwave cloud feedback from CCSM3 to CCSM4. A new formulation of the mixed-layer, slab ocean model in CCSM4 attempts to reproduce the SST and sea ice climatology from an integration with a full-depth ocean, and it is integrated with a dynamic sea ice model. These new features allow an isolation of the influence of ocean dynamical changes on the climate response when comparing integrations with the slab ocean and full-depth ocean. The transient climate response of the full-depth ocean version is 0.54 of the equilibrium climate sensitivity when estimated with the new slab ocean model version for both CCSM3 and CCSM4. We argue the ratio is the same in both versions because they have about the same zonal mean pattern of change in ocean surface heat flux, which broadly resembles the zonal mean pattern of net feedback strength.

  3. Computer modeling of the global warming effect

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Washington, W.M.

    1993-12-31

    The state of knowledge of global warming will be presented and two aspects examined: observational evidence and a review of the state of computer modeling of climate change due to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. Observational evidence, indeed, shows global warming, but it is difficult to prove that the changes are unequivocally due to the greenhouse-gas effect. Although observational measurements of global warming are subject to ``correction,`` researchers are showing consistent patterns in their interpretation of the data. Since the 1960s, climate scientists have been making their computer models of the climate system more realistic. Models started as atmospheric models and, through the addition of oceans, surface hydrology, and sea-ice components, they then became climate-system models. Because of computer limitations and the limited understanding of the degree of interaction of the various components, present models require substantial simplification. Nevertheless, in their present state of development climate models can reproduce most of the observed large-scale features of the real system, such as wind, temperature, precipitation, ocean current, and sea-ice distribution. The use of supercomputers to advance the spatial resolution and realism of earth-system models will also be discussed.

  4. Climate Model Output Rewriter

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2004-06-21

    CMOR comprises a set of FORTRAN 90 dunctions that can be used to produce CF-compliant netCDF files. The structure of the files created by CMOR and the metadata they contain fulfill the requirements of many of the climate community’s standard model experiments (which are referred to here as "MIPS", which stands for "model intercomparison project", including, for example, AMIP, CMIP, CFMIP, PMIP, APE, and IPCC scenario runs), CMOR was not designed to serve as anmore » all-purpose wfiter of CF-compliant netCDF files, but simply to reduce the effort required to prepare and manage MIP data. Although MIPs encourage systematic analysis of results across models, this is only easy to do if the model output is written in a common format with files structured similarly and with sufficient metadata uniformly stored according to a common standard. Individual modeling groups store their data in different ways. but if a group can read its own data with FORTRAN, then it should easily be able to transform the data, using CMOR, into the common format required by the MIPs, The adoption of CMOR as a standard code for exchanging climate data will facilitate participation in MIPs because after learning how to satisfy the output requirements of one MIP, it will be easy to prepare output for the other MIPs.« less

  5. Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Challenges in Talks with World Energy Ministers | Department of Energy Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate Challenges in Talks with World Energy Ministers Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate Challenges in Talks with World Energy Ministers March 13, 2009 - 12:00am Addthis Washington, DC - In recent discussions with a broad range of world energy ministers, U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu has stressed the need for global cooperation

  6. Advancing Climate Science with Global Research Facilities

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Learn how scientists are collecting and studying data to develop a better understanding of the Earth's climate.

  7. Global Energy Futures Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2004-01-01

    The Global Energy Futures Model (GEFM) is a demand-based, gross domestic product (GDP)-driven, dynamic simulation tool that provides an integrated framework to model key aspects of energy, nuclear-materials storage and disposition, environmental effluents from fossil and non fossil energy and global nuclear-materials management. Based entirely on public source data, it links oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and renewable energy dynamically to greenhouse-gas emissions and 13 other measures of environmental impact. It includes historical data frommore » 1990 to 2000, is benchmarked to the DOE/EIA/IEO 2002 [5] Reference Case for 2000 to 2020, and extrapolates energy demand through the year 2050. The GEFM is globally integrated, and breaks out five regions of the world: United States of America (USA), the Peoples Republic of China (China), the former Soviet Union (FSU), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations excluding the USA (other industrialized countries), and the rest of the world (ROW) (essentially the developing world). The GEFM allows the user to examine a very wide range of what ir scenarios through 2050 and to view the potential effects across widely dispersed, but interrelated areas. The authors believe that this high-level learning tool will help to stimulate public policy debate on energy, environment, economic and national security issues.« less

  8. Environmental Justice: Made-for-Television-Climate Change: A Global

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Reality | Department of Energy Justice: Made-for-Television-Climate Change: A Global Reality Environmental Justice: Made-for-Television-Climate Change: A Global Reality July 2, 2015 - 11:31am Addthis What does this project do? Goal 1. Protect human health and the environment. The U.S. Department of Energy was invited to be a panelist for a made-for-television educational program in Columbia, South Carolina, titled Climate Change: A Global Reality. DOE also co-sponsored the program. John

  9. Sandia Energy - Global Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Gallery Computational Fluid Dynamics & Large-Scale Uncertainty Quantification for Wind Energy Highlights - HPC Computational Fluid Dynamics & Large-Scale Uncertainty...

  10. Global Climate Change Assessment Report Shows Nations Not Doing...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Climate Change Assessment Report Shows Nations Not Doing Enough Home > Blogs > Dc's blog Dc's picture Submitted by Dc(266) Contributor 5 November, 2014 - 14:49 The latest...

  11. Clouds and climate: Unraveling a key piece of global warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seinfeld, J.H.

    2000-02-01

    Federal policy decisions relating to mitigation of greenhouse gas and other emissions have the potential to exert an enormous impact on industries in which chemical engineers play a prominent role. Many in these industries keep close watch on the development of scientific understanding associated with predictions of global climate change. The authors review one of the most critical, and most uncertain, pieces of the climate puzzle, the role of aerosols and clouds in the global energy balance.

  12. Global Catastrophes in Perspective: Asteroid Impacts vs. Climate Change.

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Conference) | SciTech Connect Global Catastrophes in Perspective: Asteroid Impacts vs. Climate Change. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Global Catastrophes in Perspective: Asteroid Impacts vs. Climate Change. Abstract not provided. Authors: Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick ; Harris, Alan W. Publication Date: 2008-08-01 OSTI Identifier: 1142731 Report Number(s): SAND2008-5552C 511673 DOE Contract Number: DE-AC04-94AL85000 Resource Type: Conference Resource Relation: Conference: American

  13. Biogeophysical effects of CO2-fertilization on global climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Mirin, A; Wickett, M; Delire, C; Phillips, T J

    2006-04-26

    CO{sub 2}-fertilization affects plant growth, which modifies surface physical properties, altering the surface albedo, and fluxes of sensible and latent heat. We investigate how such CO{sub 2}-fertilization effects on vegetation and surface properties would affect the climate system. Using a global three-dimensional climate-carbon model that simulates vegetation dynamics, we compare two multi-century simulations: a ''Control'' simulation with no emissions, and a ''Physiol-noGHG'' simulation where physiological changes occur as a result of prescribed CO{sub 2} emissions, but where CO{sub 2}-induced greenhouse warming is not included. In our simulations, CO{sub 2}-fertilization produces warming; we obtain an annual- and global-mean warming of about 0.65 K (and land-only warming of 1.4 K) after 430 years. This century-scale warming is mostly due to a decreased surface albedo associated with the expansion of the Northern Hemisphere boreal forests. On decadal time scales, the CO{sub 2} uptake by afforestation should produce a cooling effect that exceeds this albedo-based warming; but if the forests remain in place, the CO{sub 2}-enhanced-greenhouse effect would diminish as the ocean equilibrates with the atmosphere, whereas the albedo effect would persist. Thus, on century time scales, there is the prospect for net warming from CO{sub 2}-fertilization of the land biosphere. Further study is needed to confirm and better quantify our results.

  14. THE IMPACT OF THERMAL ENGINEERING RESEARCH ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phelan, Patrick; Abdelaziz, Omar; Otanicar, Todd; Phelan, Bernadette; Prasher, Ravi; Taylor, Robert; Tyagi, Himanshu

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change is recognized by many people around the world as being one of the most pressing issues facing our society today. The thermal engineering research community clearly plays an important role in addressing this critical issue, but what kind of thermal engineering research is, or will be, most impactful? In other words, in what directions should thermal engineering research be targeted in order to derive the greatest benefit with respect to global climate change? To answer this question we consider the potential reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, coupled with potential economic impacts, resulting from thermal engineering research. Here a new model framework is introduced that allows a technological, sector-by-sector analysis of GHG emissions avoidance. For each sector, we consider the maximum reduction in CO2 emissions due to such research, and the cost effectiveness of the new efficient technologies. The results are normalized on a country-by-country basis, where we consider the USA, the European Union, China, India, and Australia as representative countries or regions. Among energy supply-side technologies, improvements in coal-burning power generation are seen as having the most beneficial CO2 and economic impacts. The one demand-side technology considered, residential space cooling, offers positive but limited impacts. The proposed framework can be extended to include additional technologies and impacts, such as water consumption.

  15. Global Climate and Energy Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Energy Project Global Climate and Energy Project 2003 DEER Conference Presentation: U.S. Department of Energy FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies Program PDF icon deer_2003_edwards.pdf More Documents & Publications ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education Program (GCEP) PIA, Office of Information Resources Biomass Indirect Liquefaction Presentation Audit Report: IG-0678

  16. FactSheetOnGlobalClimateChange.pdf | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    FactSheetOnGlobalClimateChange.pdf FactSheetOnGlobalClimateChange.pdf PDF icon U More Documents & Publications U Twenty In Ten: Strengthening America's Energy Security Climate Vision Progress Report 2007

  17. The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page; Zhang, Xuesong; Bandaru, Varaprasad; West, Tristram O.; Wise, Marshall A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-19

    Land use change is a complex response to changing environmental and socioeconomic systems. Historical drivers of land use change include changes in the natural resource availability of a region, changes in economic conditions for production of certain products and changing policies. Most recently, introduction of policy incentives for biofuel production have influenced land use change in the US Midwest, leading to concerns that bioenergy production systems may compete with food production and land conservation. Here we explore how land use may be impacted by future climate mitigation measures by nesting a high resolution agricultural model (EPIC Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) for the US Midwest within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM Global Change Assessment Model). This approach is designed to provide greater spatial resolution and detailed agricultural practice information by focusing on the climate mitigation potential of agriculture and land use in a specific region, while retaining the global economic context necessary to understand the far ranging effects of climate mitigation targets. We find that until the simulated carbon prices are very high, the US Midwest has a comparative advantage in producing traditional food and feed crops over bioenergy crops. Overall, the model responds to multiple pressures by adopting a mix of future responses. We also find that the GCAM model is capable of simulations at multiple spatial scales and agricultural technology resolution, which provides the capability to examine regional response to global policy and economic conditions in the context of climate mitigation.

  18. Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Transportation Sector | Department of Energy Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector 2002 DEER Conference Presentation: Joint Global Change Research Institute - Battelle PDF icon 2002_deer_dooley.pdf More Documents & Publications There is no Silver Bullet: Regionalization and Market Fragmentation in Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies EAC Presentation - Roadmap 2050: A

  19. Accelerated Climate Modeling For Energy Marcia Branstetter Katherine...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    on local to global scales? - How do biogeochemical cycles interact with global climate change? - How do rapid changes in cryospheric systems interact with the climate system? *...

  20. Climate Impact of Transportation A Model Comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Girod, Bastien; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Grahn, Maria; Kitous, Alban; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page

    2013-06-01

    Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO2 emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and CO2 emissions of five different global transport models using harmonized input assumptions on income and population. For four models we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax. All models project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology is important for limiting energy consumption and CO2 emissions, but quite radical changes in the technology mix are required to stabilize or reverse the trend. While all models project liquid fossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax of US$200/tCO2 in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate room for improvement in modeling and empirical description of the transport system.

  1. Global climate change and the mitigation challenge

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Frank Princiotta

    2009-10-15

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations, very likely the primary cause of the 0.8{sup o}C warming the Earth has experienced since the Industrial Revolution. With industrial activity and population expected to increase for the rest of the century, large increases in greenhouse gas emissions are projected, with substantial global additional warming predicted. This paper examines forces driving CO{sub 2} emissions, a concise sector-by-sector summary of mitigation options, and research and development (R&D) priorities. To constrain warming to below approximately 2.5{sup o}C in 2100, the recent annual 3% CO{sub 2} emission growth rate needs to transform rapidly to an annual decrease rate of from 1 to 3% for decades. Furthermore, the current generation of energy generation and end-use technologies are capable of achieving less than half of the emission reduction needed for such a major mitigation program. New technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate, especially for the key power generation and transportation sectors. Current energy technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) programs fall far short of what is required. 20 refs., 18 figs., 4 tabs.

  2. Impact of Heavy Duty Vehicle Emissions Reductions on Global Climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2010-08-01

    The impact of a specified set of emissions reductions from heavy duty vehicles on climate change is calculated using the MAGICC 5.3 climate model. The integrated impact of the following emissions changes are considered: CO2, CH4, N2O, VOC, NOx, and SO2. This brief summarizes the assumptions and methods used for this calculation.

  3. Climate Models: Rob Jacob | Argonne National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    science & technology Environmental modeling tools Programs Mathematics, computing, & computer science Modeling, simulation, & visualization Rob Jacob, Computational Climate...

  4. Towards a Fine-Resolution Global Coupled Climate System for Prediction on

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Decadal/Centennial Scales (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Towards a Fine-Resolution Global Coupled Climate System for Prediction on Decadal/Centennial Scales Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Towards a Fine-Resolution Global Coupled Climate System for Prediction on Decadal/Centennial Scales The over-arching goal of this project was to contribute to the realization of a fully coupled fine resolution Earth System Model simulation in which a weather-scale atmosphere is coupled to

  5. Climate Mitigation Policy Implications for Global Irrigation Water Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Wise, Marshall A.

    2013-08-22

    Energy, water and land are scarce resources, critical to humans. Developments in each affect the availability and cost of the others, and consequently human prosperity. Measures to limit greenhouse gas concentrations will inevitably exact dramatic changes on energy and land systems and in turn alter the character, magnitude and geographic distribution of human claims on water resources. We employ the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model to explore the interactions of energy, land and water systems in the context of alternative policies to limit climate change to three alternative levels: 2.5 Wm-2 (445 ppm CO2-e), 3.5 Wm-2 (535 ppm CO2-e) and 4.5 Wm-2 (645 ppm CO2-e). We explore the effects of alternative land-use emissions mitigation policy optionsone which values terrestrial carbon emissions equally with fossil fuel and industrial emissions, and an alternative which places no penalty on land-use change emissions. We find that increasing populations and economic growth could be anticipated to lead to increased demand for water for agricultural systems (+200%), even in the absence of climate change. In general policies to mitigate climate change will increase agricultural demands for water, regardless of whether or not terrestrial carbon is valued or not. Burgeoning demands for water are driven by the demand for bioenergy in response to emissions mitigation policies. We also find that the policy matters. Increases in the demand for water when terrestrial carbon emissions go un-prices are vastly larger than when terrestrial system carbon emissions are prices at the same rate as fossil fuel and industrial emissions. Our estimates for increased water demands when terrestrial carbon systems go un-priced are larger than earlier studies. We find that the deployment of improved irrigation delivery systems could mitigate some of the increase in water demands, but cannot reverse the increases in water demands when terrestrial carbon emissions go un-priced. Finally we estimates that the geospatial pattern of water demands could stress some parts of the world, e.g. China, India and other countries in south and east Asia, earlier and more intensely than in other parts of the world, e.g. North America.

  6. Integrated Climate and Carbon-cycle Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2006-03-06

    The INCCA model is a numerical climate and carbon cycle modeling tool for use in studying climate change and carbon cycle science. The model includes atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and sea ice components.

  7. Picture of the Week: The art of climate modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    02 The art of climate modeling The paint-like swirls of this visualization from Los Alamos National Laboratory depict global water-surface temperatures, with the surface texture driven by vorticity. March 12, 2015 The paint-like swirls of this visualization from Los Alamos National Laboratory depict global water-surface temperatures, with the surface texture driven by vorticity. . The paint-like swirls of this visualization from Los Alamos National Laboratory depict global water-surface

  8. Towards a Fine-Resolution Global Coupled Climate System for Prediction...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    58 GEOSCIENCES climate, numerical modeling, earth system model, ocean, sea-ice, mesoscale eddies climate, numerical modeling, earth system model, ocean, sea-ice, mesoscale...

  9. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Raymond S. Bradley; Henry F. Diaz

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth??s climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  10. Global climate change and international security. Report on a conference held at Argonne National Laboratory, May 8--10, 1991

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, M.

    1991-12-31

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  11. Structural Design Feasibility Study for the Global Climate Experiment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lewin,K.F.; Nagy, J.

    2008-12-01

    Neon, Inc. is proposing to establish a Global Change Experiment (GCE) Facility to increase our understanding of how ecological systems differ in their vulnerability to changes in climate and other relevant global change drivers, as well as provide the mechanistic basis for forecasting ecological change in the future. The experimental design was initially envisioned to consist of two complementary components; (A) a multi-factor experiment manipulating CO{sub 2}, temperature and water availability and (B) a water balance experiment. As the design analysis and cost estimates progressed, it became clear that (1) the technical difficulties of obtaining tight temperature control and maintaining elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels within an enclosure were greater than had been expected and (2) the envisioned study would not fit into the expected budget envelope if this was done in a partially or completely enclosed structure. After discussions between NEON management, the GCE science team, and Keith Lewin, NEON, Inc. requested Keith Lewin to expand the scope of this design study to include open-field exposure systems. In order to develop the GCE design to the point where it can be presented within a proposal for funding, a feasibility study of climate manipulation structures must be conducted to determine design approaches and rough cost estimates, and to identify advantages and disadvantages of these approaches including the associated experimental artifacts. NEON, Inc requested this design study in order to develop concepts for the climate manipulation structures to support the NEON Global Climate Experiment. This study summarizes the design concepts considered for constructing and operating the GCE Facility and their associated construction, maintenance and operations costs. Comparisons and comments about experimental artifacts, construction challenges and operational uncertainties are provided to assist in selecting the final facility design. The overall goal of this report is to provide a cost and technological basis for selection of the appropriate GCE Facility design.

  12. Global Biogeochemistry Models and Global Carbon Cycle Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Covey, C; Caldeira, K; Guilderson, T; Cameron-Smith, P; Govindasamy, B; Swanston, C; Wickett, M; Mirin, A; Bader, D

    2005-05-27

    The climate modeling community has long envisioned an evolution from physical climate models to ''earth system'' models that include the effects of biology and chemistry, particularly those processes related to the global carbon cycle. The widely reproduced Box 3, Figure 1 from the 2001 IPCC Scientific Assessment schematically describes that evolution. The community generally accepts the premise that understanding and predicting global and regional climate change requires the inclusion of carbon cycle processes in models to fully simulate the feedbacks between the climate system and the carbon cycle. Moreover, models will ultimately be employed to predict atmospheric concentrations of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases as a function of anthropogenic and natural processes, such as industrial emissions, terrestrial carbon fixation, sequestration, land use patterns, etc. Nevertheless, the development of coupled climate-carbon models with demonstrable quantitative skill will require a significant amount of effort and time to understand and validate their behavior at both the process level and as integrated systems. It is important to consider objectively whether the currently proposed strategies to develop and validate earth system models are optimal, or even sufficient, and whether alternative strategies should be pursued. Carbon-climate models are going to be complex, with the carbon cycle strongly interacting with many other components. Off-line process validation will be insufficient. As was found in coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs, feedbacks between model components can amplify small errors and uncertainties in one process to produce large biases in the simulated climate. The persistent tropical western Pacific Ocean ''double ITCZ'' and upper troposphere ''cold pole'' problems are examples. Finding and fixing similar types of problems in coupled carbon-climate models especially will be difficult, given the lack of observations required for diagnosis and validation of biogeochemical processes.

  13. Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

    2009-08-01

    Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on a grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.

  14. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dunlea, Edward; Elfring, Chris

    2012-12-04

    Climate models are the foundation for understanding and projecting climate and climate-related changes and are thus critical tools for supporting climate-related decision making. This study developed a holistic strategy for improving the nation??s capability to accurately simulate climate and related Earth system changes on decadal to centennial timescales. The committee??s report is a high level analysis, providing a strategic framework to guide progress in the nation??s climate modeling enterprise over the next 10-20 years. This study was supported by DOE, NSF, NASA, NOAA, and the intelligence community.

  15. Questions of bias in climate models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Steven J.; Wigley, Tom M.; Meinshausen, Malte; Rogelj, Joeri

    2014-08-27

    The recent work by Shindell usefully contributes to the debate over estimating climate sensitivity by highlighting an important aspect of the climate system: that climate forcings that occur over land result in a more rapid temperature response than forcings that are distributed more uniformly over the globe. While, as noted in this work, simple climate models may be biased by assuming the same temperature response for all forcing agents, the implication that the MAGICC model is biased in this way is not correct.

  16. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanson, H.P.

    1994-09-01

    This research is ultimately concerned with investigating the hypothesis that changes in surface thermal and hydrological forcing of the North Atlantic, changes that might be expected to accompany CO2-induced global warming, could result in ocean-atmosphere interactions` exerting a positive feedback on the climate system. This report concerns research conducted with funding from the Carbon Dioxide Research Program (now the Global Climate Change Program) of the US Department of Energy via grant no. DE-FG02-90ER61019 during the period 15 July 1990 - 14 July 1994. This was a three-year award, extended to a fourth year (15 July 1993 - 14 July 1994) via a no-cost extension. It is important to emphasize that this award has been renewed for an additional two years (15 July 1993 - 14 July 1995) via grant no. DE-FG03-93ER61646 (with the same title). Because the project was originally envisioned to be a five-year effort, many of the important results and conclusions will be available for the Final Report of that second award. This report therefore concerns mainly preliminary conclusions and a discussion of progress toward understanding the central hypothesis of the research.

  17. Property:Buildings/ModelClimateZone | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Climate Zone 7A Climate Zone 7B Climate Zone 8A Climate Zone 8B Pages using the property "BuildingsModelClimateZone" Showing 12 pages using this property. G General Merchandise...

  18. Global climate feedbacks: Conclusions and recommendations of the June 1990 BNL workshop

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Manowitz, B.

    1990-08-01

    The issue of global change initiated by increases in the concentrations of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases is a scientific issue with major policy implications. The best means to examine the response of the Earth's climate to prospective perturbations in radiative forcing caused by such changes, and to other industrial activities, is modeling, specifically by means of general circulation models (GCMs) of the Earth's atmosphere and of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. The purpose of this workshop was to identify the feedbacks inherent in the Earth's climate that actually or potentially govern the system's response to perturbations, to identify gaps in knowledge that preclude the accurate representation of these feedbacks in models, and to identify research required to represent these feedbacks accurately in models.

  19. U.S. Global Climate Change program | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    U.S. Global Climate Change program Home Graham7781's picture Submitted by Graham7781(2017) Super contributor 18 January, 2013 - 15:46 U.S. Global Change Research Program publishes...

  20. Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy | Argonne Leadership...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Credit: Alan Scott and Mark Taylor, Sandia National Laboratories Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy PI Name: Mark Taylor PI Email: mataylo@sandia.gov Institution: Sandia...

  1. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  2. Climate Modeling using High-Performance Computing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mirin, A A

    2007-02-05

    The Center for Applied Scientific Computing (CASC) and the LLNL Climate and Carbon Science Group of Energy and Environment (E and E) are working together to improve predictions of future climate by applying the best available computational methods and computer resources to this problem. Over the last decade, researchers at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) have developed a number of climate models that provide state-of-the-art simulations on a wide variety of massively parallel computers. We are now developing and applying a second generation of high-performance climate models. Through the addition of relevant physical processes, we are developing an earth systems modeling capability as well.

  3. Physically-Based Global Downscaling: Climate Change Projections for a Full Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghan, Steven J.; Shippert, Timothy R.

    2006-05-01

    A global atmosphere/land model with an embedded subgrid orography scheme is used to simulate the period 1977-2100 using ocean surface conditions and radiative constituent concentrations for a climate change scenario. Climate variables simulated for multiple elevation classes are mapping according to the high-resolution of topography in ten regions with complex terrain. Analysis of changes in the simulated climate lead to the following conclusions. Changes in precipitation vary widely, with precipitation increasing more with increasing altitude in some region, decreasing more with altitude in others, and changing little in still others. In some regions the sign of the precipitation change depends on surface elevation. Changes in surface air temperature are rather uniform, with at most a two-fold difference between the largest and smallest changes within a region. In most cases the warming increases with altitude. Changes in snow water are highly dependent on altitude. Absolute changes usually increase with altitude, while relative changes decrease. In places where snow accumulates, an artificial upper bound on snow water limits the sensitivity of snow water to climate change considerably. The simulated impact of climate change on regional mean snow water varies widely, with little impact in regions in which the upper bound on snow water is the dominant snow water sink, moderate impact in regions with a mixture of seasonal and permanent snow, and profound impacts on regions with little permanent snow.

  4. Physically-Based Global Downscaling Climate Change Projections for a Full Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghan, Steven J.; Shippert, Timothy R.

    2005-04-15

    A global atmosphere/land model with an embedded subgrid orography scheme is used to simulate the period 1977-2100 using ocean surface conditions and radiative constituent concentrations for a climate change scenario. Climate variables simulated for multiple elevation classes are mapping according to a high-resolution elevation dataset in ten regions with complex terrain. Analysis of changes in the simulated climate leads to the following conclusions. Changes in precipitation vary widely, with precipitation increasing more with increasing altitude in some region, decreasing more with altitude in others, and changing little in still others. In some regions the sign of the precipitation change depends on surface elevation. Changes in surface air temperature are rather uniform, with at most a two-fold difference between the largest and smallest changes within a region; in most cases the warming increases with altitude. Changes in snow water are highly dependent on altitude. Absolute changes usually increase with altitude, while relative changes decrease. In places where snow accumulates, an artificial upper bound on snow water limits the sensitivity of snow water to climate change considerably. The simulated impact of climate change on regional mean snow water varies widely, with little impact in regions in which the upper bound on snow water is the dominant snow water sink, moderate impact in regions with a mixture of seasonal and permanent snow, and profound impacts on regions with little permanent snow.

  5. Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling (COSIM)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Sea Level Rise: The rate of sea level rise is one of the largest unknowns in current climate models and requires our advanced ocean and ice sheet models for accurate future ...

  6. Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The rate of sea level rise is one of the largest unknowns in current climate models and requires our advanced ocean and ice sheet models for accurate future projections. * Rapid ...

  7. Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-01-01

    While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.

  8. Global Climate Change and the Transportation Sector: An Update on Issues and Mitigation Options

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Geffen, CA; Dooley, JJ; Kim, SH

    2003-08-24

    It is clear from numerous energy/economic modeling exercises that addressing the challenges posed by global climate change will eventually require the active participation of all industrial sectors and all consumers on the planet. Yet, these and similar modeling exercises indicate that large stationary CO2 point sources (e.g., refineries and fossil-fired electric power plants) are often the first targets considered for serious CO2 emissions mitigation. Without participation of all sectors of the global economy, however, the challenges of climate change mitigation will not be met. Because of its operating characteristics, price structure, dependence on virtually one energy source (oil), enormous installed infrastructure, and limited technology alternatives, at least in the near-term, the transportation sector will likely represent a particularly difficult challenge for CO2 emissions mitigation. Our research shows that climate change induced price signals (i.e., putting a price on carbon that is emitted to the atmosphere) are in the near term insufficient to drive fundamental shifts in demand for energy services or to transform the way these services are provided in the transportation sector. We believe that a technological revolution will be necessary to accomplish the significant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. This paper presents an update of ongoing research into a variety of technological options that exist for decarbonizing the transportation sector and the various tradeoffs among them.

  9. ARM - What is the ARM Climate Research Facility Doing About Global Warming?

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    WarmingWhat is the ARM Climate Research Facility Doing About Global Warming? Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans What is the ARM Climate Research Facility Doing About Global Warming? Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) scientists are studying the effects of clouds on weather

  10. Integrated Assessment of Global Water Scarcity over the 21st Century under Multiple Climate Change Mitigation Policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and a global population of 14 billion by 2095, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demand for water exceeds the amount of water availability in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 20% and 27% of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change.

  11. The global gridded crop model intercomparison: Data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elliott, J.; Müller, C.; Deryng, D.; Chryssanthacopoulos, J.; Boote, K. J.; Büchner, M.; Foster, I.; Glotter, M.; Heinke, J.; Iizumi, T.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Mueller, N. D.; Ray, D. K.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.; Sheffield, J.

    2015-02-11

    We present protocols and input data for Phase 1 of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison, a project of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). The project consist of global simulations of yields, phenologies, and many land-surface fluxes using 12–15 modeling groups for many crops, climate forcing data sets, and scenarios over the historical period from 1948 to 2012. The primary outcomes of the project include (1) a detailed comparison of the major differences and similarities among global models commonly used for large-scale climate impact assessment, (2) an evaluation of model and ensemble hindcasting skill, (3) quantification of key uncertainties from climate input data, model choice, and other sources, and (4) a multi-model analysis of the agricultural impacts of large-scale climate extremes from the historical record.

  12. The global gridded crop model intercomparison: Data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0)

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Elliott, J.; Müller, C.; Deryng, D.; Chryssanthacopoulos, J.; Boote, K. J.; Büchner, M.; Foster, I.; Glotter, M.; Heinke, J.; Iizumi, T.; et al

    2015-02-11

    We present protocols and input data for Phase 1 of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison, a project of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). The project consist of global simulations of yields, phenologies, and many land-surface fluxes using 12–15 modeling groups for many crops, climate forcing data sets, and scenarios over the historical period from 1948 to 2012. The primary outcomes of the project include (1) a detailed comparison of the major differences and similarities among global models commonly used for large-scale climate impact assessment, (2) an evaluation of model and ensemble hindcasting skill, (3) quantification ofmore » key uncertainties from climate input data, model choice, and other sources, and (4) a multi-model analysis of the agricultural impacts of large-scale climate extremes from the historical record.« less

  13. Community Climate System Model (Book) | SciTech Connect

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Book: Community Climate System Model Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Community Climate System Model No abstract prepared. Authors: Worley, Patrick H 1 ; Vertenstein,...

  14. Modeling Transient Response of Forests to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dale, Virginia H; Tharp, M Lynn; Lannom, Karen O.; Hodges, Donald G

    2010-01-01

    Our hypothesis is that a high diversity of dominant life forms in Tennessee forests conveys resilience to disturbance such as climate change. Because of uncertainty in climate change and their effects, three climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to simulate a range of potential climate conditions for the state. These climate changes derive from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B storyline that assumes rapid global economic growth. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in five ecological provinces using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation differences from the long-term average are more complex but less striking. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions for five ecological provinces from 1989 to 2300. Average output projects changes in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces in Tennessee with the greatest changes in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Projected declines in total tree biomass are followed by biomass recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The Southern Mixed Forest province results in less diversity in dominant trees as well as lower overall biomass than projections for the other four provinces. The biomass and composition changes projected in this study differ from forest dynamics expected without climate change. These results suggest that biomass recovery following climate change is linked to dominant tree diversity in the southeastern forest of the US. The generality of this observation warrants further investigation, for it relates to ways that forest management may influence climate change effects.

  15. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory interests and capabilities for research on the ecological effects of global climatic and atmospheric change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Amthor, J.S.; Houpis, J.L.; Kercher, J.R.; Ledebuhr, A.; Miller, N.L.; Penner, J.E.; Robison, W.L.; Taylor, K.E.

    1994-09-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has interests and capabilities in all three types of research that must be conducted in order to understand and predict effects of global atmospheric and climatic (i.e., environmental) changes on ecological systems and their functions (ecosystem function is perhaps most conveniently defined as mass and energy exchange and storage). These three types of research are: (1) manipulative experiments with plants and ecosystems; (2) monitoring of present ecosystem, landscape, and global exchanges and pools of energy, elements, and compounds that play important roles in ecosystem function or the physical climate system, and (3) mechanistic (i.e., hierarchic and explanatory) modeling of plant and ecosystem responses to global environmental change. Specific experimental programs, monitoring plans, and modeling activities related to evaluation of ecological effects of global environmental change that are of interest to, and that can be carried out by LLNL scientists are outlined. Several projects have the distinction of integrating modeling with empirical studies resulting in an Integrated Product (a model or set of models) that DOE or any federal policy maker could use to assess ecological effects. The authors note that any scheme for evaluating ecological effects of atmospheric and climatic change should take into account exceptional or sensitive species, in particular, rare, threatened, or endangered species.

  16. Global Framework for Climate Risk Exposure | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    October 2006. Investors require this information in order to analyze a company's business risks and opportunities resulting from climate change, as well as the company's...

  17. DOE-Sponsored Beaufort Sea Expedition Studies Methane's Role in Global Climate Cycle

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Washington, D.C. -- Increased understanding of methane's role in the global climate cycle and the potential of methane hydrate as a future energy resource could result from a recent joint research...

  18. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops.

  19. Subtask 2.4 - Integration and Synthesis in Climate Change Predictive Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jaroslav Solc

    2009-06-01

    The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) completed a brief evaluation of the existing status of predictive modeling to assess options for integration of our previous paleohydrologic reconstructions and their synthesis with current global climate scenarios. Results of our research indicate that short-term data series available from modern instrumental records are not sufficient to reconstruct past hydrologic events or predict future ones. On the contrary, reconstruction of paleoclimate phenomena provided credible information on past climate cycles and confirmed their integration in the context of regional climate history is possible. Similarly to ice cores and other paleo proxies, acquired data represent an objective, credible tool for model calibration and validation of currently observed trends. It remains a subject of future research whether further refinement of our results and synthesis with regional and global climate observations could contribute to improvement and credibility of climate predictions on a regional and global scale.

  20. Climate Model Response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Caldeira, Ken; Boucher, Olivier; Robock, Alan; Rasch, Philip J.; Alterskjaer, Kari; Bou Karam, Diana; Cole, Jason N.; Curry, Charles L.; Haywood, J.; Irvine, Peter; Ji, Duoying; Jones, A.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Lunt, Daniel; Moore, John; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Schulz, M.; Singh, Balwinder; Tilmes, S.; Watanabe, Shingo; Yang, Shuting; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2013-08-09

    Solar geoengineeringdeliberate reduction in the amount of solar radiation retained by the Earthhas been proposed as a means of counteracting some of the climatic effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We present results from Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which 12 climate models have simulated the climate response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial concentrations brought into radiative balance via a globally uniform reduction in insolation. Models show this reduction largely offsets global mean surface temperature increases due to quadrupled CO2 concentrations and prevents 97% of the Arctic sea ice loss that would otherwise occur under high CO2 levels but, compared to the preindustrial climate, leaves the tropics cooler (-0.3 K) and the poles warmer (+0.8 K). Annual mean precipitation minus evaporation anomalies for G1 are less than 0.2mmday-1 in magnitude over 92% of the globe, but some tropical regions receive less precipitation, in part due to increased moist static stability and suppression of convection. Global average net primary productivity increases by 120% in G1 over simulated preindustrial levels, primarily from CO2 fertilization, but also in part due to reduced plant heat stress compared to a high CO2 world with no geoengineering. All models show that uniform solar geoengineering in G1 cannot simultaneously return regional and global temperature and hydrologic cycle intensity to preindustrial levels.

  1. National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment Energy and Climate Change

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment: Energy and Climate Change will develop and advance partnerships that focus on transitioning the world to a new "low carbon" and "climate resilient" energy system. It will emphasize putting ideas into action - moving forward on policy and practice.

  2. U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity and the Global Climate Change Initiative (released in AEO2005)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2005-01-01

    On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administrations Global Climate Change Initiative. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas intensity by 18% over the 2002 to 2012 time frame. For the purposes of the initiative, greenhouse gas intensity is defined as the ratio of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to economic output.

  3. U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity and the Global Climate Change Initiative (released in AEO2006)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2006-01-01

    On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administrations Global Climate Change Initiative. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity-defined as the ratio of total U.S. GHG emissions to economic output-by 18% over the 2002 to 2012 time frame.

  4. What is the ARM Climate Research Facility: Is Global Warming a Real Bias or a Statistical Anomaly?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Egami, Takeshi; Sisterson, Douglas L.

    2010-03-10

    The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility (ACRF) is a U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research national user facility. With multi-laboratory management of distributed facilities worldwide, the ACRF does not fit the mold of a traditional user facility located at a national laboratory. The ACRF provides the world's most comprehensive 24/7 observational capabilities for obtaining atmospheric data specifically for climate change research. Serving nearly 5,000 registered users from 15 federal and state agencies, 375 universities, and 67 countries, the ACRF Data Archive collects and delivers over 5 terabytes of data per month to its users. The ACRF users provide critical information about cloud formation processes, water vapor, and aerosols, and their influence on radiative transfer in the atmosphere. This information is used to improve global climate model predictions of climate change.

  5. Impacts of global warming on climate change over East Asia as simulated by 15 GCMs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zong-ci Zhao; Xiaodong Li

    1997-12-31

    About 15 GCMs (GFDL1, GISS, LLNL, MPI, OSU, UKMOL, UKMOH, GCMs90-92, GFDL2, NCAR, OPYC, LSG, HADL, GCMs95) obtained from the IPCC WG 1 1990, 1992 and 1995 reports have been chosen to examine the impacts of global warming, on the climate chance over East Asia. Although the models scenarios of the human activities were different for the different GCMs, the climate change over East Asia (70E-140E, 15N-60N) for tile doubled CO{sub 2} as simulated by about 15 GCMs have been analysed. The Simulations shown that the temperature might increased by about 0.5 - 1.5 C over East Asia, especially in winter and northwestern parts of East Asia. The precipitation might increase in northwestern and northeastern parts of East Asia and decrease in the central part of East Asia. The evaluations and assessments of the GCMs over East Asia have indicated that the GCMs have the abilities to simulate the climate change over East Asia, especially for the temperature and the winter season. There are some uncertainties for the simulations to compare with the observations, especially for tile precipitation and tile summer season.

  6. Testing Statistical Cloud Scheme Ideas in the GFDL Climate Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Testing Statistical Cloud Scheme Ideas in the GFDL Climate Model Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Pincus, Robert NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center...

  7. DOE Project Taps HPC for Next-Generation Climate Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    complete climate and Earth system model to address the most challenging and demanding climate change issues. Eight Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, including...

  8. Improved Offshore Wind Resource Assessment in Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arent, D.; Sullivan, P.; Heimiller, D.; Lopez, A.; Eurek, K.; Badger, J.; Jorgensen, H. E.; Kelly, M.; Clarke, L.; Luckow, P.

    2012-10-01

    This paper introduces a technique for digesting geospatial wind-speed data into areally defined -- country-level, in this case -- wind resource supply curves. We combined gridded wind-vector data for ocean areas with bathymetry maps, country exclusive economic zones, wind turbine power curves, and other datasets and relevant parameters to build supply curves that estimate a country's offshore wind resource defined by resource quality, depth, and distance-from-shore. We include a single set of supply curves -- for a particular assumption set -- and study some implications of including it in a global energy model. We also discuss the importance of downscaling gridded wind vector data to capturing the full resource potential, especially over land areas with complex terrain. This paper includes motivation and background for a statistical downscaling methodology to account for terrain effects with a low computational burden. Finally, we use this forum to sketch a framework for building synthetic electric networks to estimate transmission accessibility of renewable resource sites in remote areas.

  9. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth`s surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society`s ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  10. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO sub 2 and climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth's surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society's ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  11. Global

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Co-Hosts "Climate Risk Forum: Bridging Climate Science and Actuarial Practice" This Fall event was a follow-up to a Climate and Environment Program Area meeting with the California governor's office in July. There, the California Insurance Commissioner, Dave Jones, recognized the value of Sandia's climate-impact modeling and analysis work, led by Stephen Conrad (manager of Sandia's Resilience and Regulatory Effects Dept.), and wanted to connect that [...] By

  12. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Jana; Luderer, Gunnar; Ashina, Shuichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Kitous, Alban; Mejean, Aurelie; Paroussos, Leonidas; Sano, Fuminori; Turton, Hal; Wilson, Charlie; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economic systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. This article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of integrated assessment models to classify differences among models based on their carbon price responses. Model diagnostics can uncover patterns and provide insights into why, under a given scenario, certain types of models behave in observed ways. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study with 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to more easily explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

  13. A Global Cloud Resolving Model Goals

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Global Cloud Resolving Model Goals Uniform global horizontal grid spacing of 4 km or better ("cloud permitting") 100 or more layers up to at least the stratopause Parameterizations of microphysics, turbulence (including small clouds), and radiation Execution speed of at least several simulated days per wall-clock day on immediately available systems Annual cycle simulation by end of 2011. Motivations Parameterizations are still problematic. There are no spectral gaps. The equations

  14. A global scale mechanistic model of the photosynthetic capacity

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Ali, A. A.; Xu, C.; Rogers, A.; Fisher, R. A.; Wullschleger, S. D.; McDowell, N. G.; Massoud, E. C.; Vrugt, J. A.; Muss, J. D.; Fisher, J. B.; et al

    2015-08-10

    Although plant photosynthetic capacity as determined by the maximum carboxylation rate (i.e., Vc, max25) and the maximum electron transport rate (i.e., Jmax25) at a reference temperature (generally 25 C) is known to vary substantially in space and time in response to environmental conditions, it is typically parameterized in Earth system models (ESMs) with tabulated values associated to plant functional types. In this study, we developed a mechanistic model of leaf utilization of nitrogen for assimilation (LUNA V1.0) to predict the photosynthetic capacity at the global scale under different environmental conditions, based on the optimization of nitrogen allocated among light capture,moreelectron transport, carboxylation, and respiration. The LUNA model was able to reasonably well capture the observed patterns of photosynthetic capacity in view that it explained approximately 55 % of the variation in observed Vc, max25 and 65 % of the variation in observed Jmax25 across the globe. Our model simulations under current and future climate conditions indicated that Vc, max25 could be most affected in high-latitude regions under a warming climate and that ESMs using a fixed Vc, max25 or Jmax25 by plant functional types were likely to substantially overestimate future global photosynthesis.less

  15. Global Climate Change Response Program: Potential regional impacts of global warming on precipitation in the western United States. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leverson, V.

    1997-01-01

    This study was designed to build upon a previous Global Climate Change Response Program investigation in which an initial `first guess` climate change scenario was derived for the Western United States. Using the scenario`s hypothesized northward shift in the mean wintertime storm track, historical upper-air patterns in the atmosphere were searched to identify winter months (December, January, or February) that would serve as appropriate global warming analogues (GWA). Contour charts were generated of four geopotential height parameters. Specific pattern configurations of the four parameters were identified that reflected the altered storm track pattern, and guidelines for selecting suitable analogues based on the configurations were developed. Monthly mean precipitation values for the GWA months at three climatological divisions in Western Montana, northern Utah, and east central Arizona were compared with median values for the 1946-89 period to determine if any significant differences existed.

  16. Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high-resolution models in the present climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kim, Daehyun; Kumar, Arun; Lim, Young -Kwon; Reed, Kevin A.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Wang, Hui; Zhao, Ming; Henderson, Naomi

    2014-12-05

    The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.

  17. Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high-resolution models in the present climate

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kim, Daehyun; Kumar, Arun; LaRow, Timothy E.; Lim, Young -Kwon; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Reed, Kevin A.; et al

    2014-12-05

    The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TCmore » frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.« less

  18. A Better Way to ID Extreme Weather Events in Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    A Better Way to ID Extreme Weather Events in Climate Models A Better Way to ID Extreme Weather Events in Climate Models Berkeley Lab scientists help automate the search for hurricanes and other storms in huge datasets December 7, 2011 Dan Krotz, dakrotz@lbl.gov, +1 510-486-4019 You'd think that spotting a category 5 hurricane would never be difficult. But when the hurricane is in a global climate model that spans several decades, it becomes a fleeting wisp among mountains of data. That's a

  19. Progress Report 2008: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Drake, John B; Worley, Patrick H; Hoffman, Forrest M; Jones, Phil

    2009-01-01

    This project employs multi-disciplinary teams to accelerate development of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), based at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). A consortium of eight Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories collaborate with NCAR and the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). The laboratories are Argonne (ANL), Brookhaven (BNL) Los Alamos (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore (LLNL), Oak Ridge (ORNL), Pacific Northwest (PNNL) and Sandia (SNL). The work plan focuses on scalablity for petascale computation and extensibility to a more comprehensive earth system model. Our stated goal is to support the DOE mission in climate change research by helping ... To determine the range of possible climate changes over the 21st century and beyond through simulations using a more accurate climate system model that includes the full range of human and natural climate feedbacks with increased realism and spatial resolution.

  20. LINKING MICROBES TO CLIMATE: INCORPORATING MICROBIAL ACTIVITY INTO CLIMATE MODELS COLLOQUIUM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DeLong, Edward; Harwood, Caroline; Reid, Ann

    2011-01-01

    This report explains the connection between microbes and climate, discusses in general terms what modeling is and how it applied to climate, and discusses the need for knowledge in microbial physiology, evolution, and ecology to contribute to the determination of fluxes and rates in climate models. It recommends with a multi-pronged approach to address the gaps.

  1. The Role of Asia in Mitigating Climate Change: Results from the Asia Modeling Exercise

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Krey, Volker; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Jiang, Kejun; Kainuma, M.; Kriegler, Elmar; Luderer, Gunnar; Shukla, Priyadarshi R.

    2012-12-01

    In 2010, Asia accounted for 60% of global population, 39% of Gross World Product, 44% of global energy consumption and nearly half of the worlds energy system CO2 emissions. Thus, Asia is an important region to consider in any discussion of climate change or climate change mitigation. This paper explores the role of Asia in mitigating climate change, by comparing the results of 23 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. We focus our analysis on seven key areas: base year data, future energy use and emissions absent climate policy, the effect of urban and rural development on future energy use and emissions, the role of technology in emissions mitigation, regional emissions mitigation, and national climate policies

  2. Climate implications of carbonaceous aerosols: An aerosol microphysical study using the GISS/MATRIX climate model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bauer, Susanne E.; Menon, Surabi; Koch, Dorothy; Bond, Tami; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2010-04-09

    Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a likely short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, cloud-indirect and semi-direct forcing effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and its climate interactions. Black carbon is directly released as particle into the atmosphere, but then interacts with other gases and particles through condensation and coagulation processes leading to further aerosol growth, aging and internal mixing. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the global GISS modelE includes the above processes that determine the lifecycle and climate impact of aerosols. This study presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative forcing. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative forcing change is -0.56 W/m{sup 2} between 1750 and 2000. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are very sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative forcing change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m{sup 2} depending on these carbonaceous particle properties. Assuming that sulfates, nitrates and secondary organics form a coating shell around a black carbon core, rather than forming a uniformly mixed particles, changes the overall net radiative forcing from a negative to a positive number. Black carbon mitigation scenarios showed generally a benefit when mainly black carbon sources such as diesel emissions are reduced, reducing organic and black carbon sources such as bio-fuels, does not lead to reduced warming.

  3. National Environmental Health Association position on global climate change adopted July 2, 1997

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Radtke, T.; Gist, G.L.; Wittkopf, T.E.

    1997-11-01

    The National Environmental Health Association (NEHA) supports the precept that anthropogenic sources, specifically greenhouse gases, are responsible for a significant portion of the measured change in global climate. Further, NEHA supports the concept of an association between global warming and an increased risk to public health. Reducing the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere will benefit human health. This position paper reviews current information on the status of global climate change with particular emphasis on the implications for environmental and public health. It is intended to be used as a basis from which environmental and public health practitioners and colleagues in related fields can initiate discussions with policy makers at all levels -- local, state, national, and worldwide.

  4. A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Technical Report: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model ...

  5. FAO-Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change (MOSAICC) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: FAO-Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of...

  6. Toward a Minimal Representation of Aerosols in Climate Models...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Minimal Representation of Aerosols in Climate Models: Description and Evaluation in the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5 Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Toward a Minimal ...

  7. ARM - PI Product - Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govDataPI Data ProductsClimate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) Comments? We would love to hear from you Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : Climate...

  8. Global Biofuels Modeling and Land Use

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Biofuels Modeling and Land Use DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Strategic Analysis & Cross-cutting Sustainability March 25 2015 Gbadebo Oladosu (PI) Oak Ridge National Laboratory This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information GOAL STATEMENT * Primary goal of the project is to demonstrate the viability of biofuels in the context of the national/global economy. * Metrics include: - Cost effectiveness:

  9. Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Andrews, Timothy; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Webb, Mark J.; Taylor, Karl E.

    2012-05-15

    We quantify forcing and feedbacks across available CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) by analysing simulations forced by an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. This is the first application of the linear forcing-feedback regression analysis of Gregory et al. (2004) to an ensemble of AOGCMs. The range of equilibrium climate sensitivity is 2.1–4.7 K. Differences in cloud feedbacks continue to be important contributors to this range. Some models show small deviations from a linear dependence of top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes on global surface temperature change. We show that this phenomenon largely arises from shortwave cloud radiative effects overmore » the ocean and is consistent with independent estimates of forcing using fixed sea-surface temperature methods. Moreover, we suggest that future research should focus more on understanding transient climate change, including any time-scale dependence of the forcing and/or feedback, rather than on the equilibrium response to large instantaneous forcing.« less

  10. What is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, M. L.; Rajagopalan, K.; Chung, S. H.; Jiang, X.; Harrison, J. H.; Nergui, T.; Guenther, Alex B.; Miller, C.; Reyes, J.; Tague, C. L.; Choate, J. S.; Salathe, E.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Adam, J. C.

    2014-05-16

    Regional climate change impact (CCI) studies have widely involved downscaling and bias-correcting (BC) Global Climate Model (GCM)-projected climate for driving land surface models. However, BC may cause uncertainties in projecting hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to future climate due to the impaired spatiotemporal covariance of climate variables and a breakdown of physical conservation principles. Here we quantify the impact of BC on simulated climate-driven changes in water variables(evapotranspiration, ET; runoff; snow water equivalent, SWE; and water demand for irrigation), crop yield, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC), nitric oxide (NO) emissions, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) Region. We also quantify the impacts on net primary production (NPP) over a small watershed in the region (HJ Andrews). Simulation results from the coupled ECHAM5/MPI-OM model with A1B emission scenario were firstly dynamically downscaled to 12 km resolutions with WRF model. Then a quantile mapping based statistical downscaling model was used to downscale them into 1/16th degree resolution daily climate data over historical and future periods. Two series climate data were generated according to the option of bias-correction (i.e. with bias-correction (BC) and without bias-correction, NBC). Impact models were then applied to estimate hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to both BC and NBC meteorological datasets. These im20 pact models include a macro-scale hydrologic model (VIC), a coupled cropping system model (VIC-CropSyst), an ecohydrologic model (RHESSys), a biogenic emissions model (MEGAN), and a nutrient export model (Global-NEWS). Results demonstrate that the BC and NBC climate data provide consistent estimates of the climate-driven changes in water fluxes (ET, runoff, and water demand), VOCs (isoprene and monoterpenes) and NO emissions, mean crop yield, and river DIN export over the PNW domain. However, significant differences rise from projected SWE, crop yield from dry lands, and HJ Andrewss ET between BC and NBC data. Even though BC post-processing has no significant impacts on most of the studied variables when taking PNW as a whole, their effects have large spatial variations and some local areas are substantially influenced. In addition, there are months during which BC and NBC post-processing produces significant differences in projected changes, such as summer runoff. Factor-controlled simulations indicate that BC post-processing of precipitation and temperature both substantially contribute to these differences at region scales. We conclude that there are trade-offs between using BC climate data for offline CCI studies vs. direct modeled climate data. These trade-offs should be considered when designing integrated modeling frameworks for specific applications; e.g., BC may be more important when considering impacts on reservoir operations in mountainous watersheds than when investigating impacts on biogenic emissions and air quality (where VOCs are a primary indicator).

  11. Modeling the role of terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon cycle

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Emanuel, W.R.; Post, W.M.; Shugart, H.H. Jr.

    1980-01-01

    A model for the global biogeochemical cycle of carbon which includes a five-compartment submodel for circulation in terrestrial ecosystems of the world is presented. Although this terrestrial submodel divides carbon into compartments with more functional detail than previous models, the variability in carbon dynamics among ecosystem types and in different climatic zones is not adequately treated. A new model construct which specifically treats this variability by modeling the distribution of ecosystem types as a function of climate on a 0.5/sup 0/ latitude by 0.5/sup 0/ longitude scale of resolution is proposed.

  12. Introducing Enabling Computational Tools to the Climate Sciences: Multi-Resolution Climate Modeling with Adaptive Cubed-Sphere Grids

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jablonowski, Christiane

    2015-07-14

    The research investigates and advances strategies how to bridge the scale discrepancies between local, regional and global phenomena in climate models without the prohibitive computational costs of global cloud-resolving simulations. In particular, the research explores new frontiers in computational geoscience by introducing high-order Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) techniques into climate research. AMR and statically-adapted variable-resolution approaches represent an emerging trend for atmospheric models and are likely to become the new norm in future-generation weather and climate models. The research advances the understanding of multi-scale interactions in the climate system and showcases a pathway how to model these interactions effectively with advanced computational tools, like the Chombo AMR library developed at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The research is interdisciplinary and combines applied mathematics, scientific computing and the atmospheric sciences. In this research project, a hierarchy of high-order atmospheric models on cubed-sphere computational grids have been developed that serve as an algorithmic prototype for the finite-volume solution-adaptive Chombo-AMR approach. The foci of the investigations have lied on the characteristics of both static mesh adaptations and dynamically-adaptive grids that can capture flow fields of interest like tropical cyclones. Six research themes have been chosen. These are (1) the introduction of adaptive mesh refinement techniques into the climate sciences, (2) advanced algorithms for nonhydrostatic atmospheric dynamical cores, (3) an assessment of the interplay between resolved-scale dynamical motions and subgrid-scale physical parameterizations, (4) evaluation techniques for atmospheric model hierarchies, (5) the comparison of AMR refinement strategies and (6) tropical cyclone studies with a focus on multi-scale interactions and variable-resolution modeling. The results of this research project demonstrate significant advances in all six research areas. The major conclusions are that statically-adaptive variable-resolution modeling is currently becoming mature in the climate sciences, and that AMR holds outstanding promise for future-generation weather and climate models on high-performance computing architectures.

  13. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Auffhammer, Maximilian; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Schlenker, Wolfram; Sobel, Adam H.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  14. The response of mangroves to projected impacts of global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Twilley, R.R.; Chen, R.H.

    1995-06-01

    A hierarchical classification system for mangroves together with a community-based ecological model (ESA abstract by Chen and Twilley, 1995) were used to asses the response of mangroves to global climate change. The hierarchical classification includes a matrix of the ecological type (riverine, fringe, basin, and dwarf mangroves) and the geomorphologic environmental setting (delta, estuarine, lagoon, carbonate platform systems). The significance of this hierarchical classification, referred to as a eco-geomorphic system, is demonstrated with a summary of the spatial variation in ecosystem function among different coastal settings. Changes in sea level, frequency of frost, and frequency of hurricanes were simulated and results of forest community composition, tree density and dominance, and forest biomass were compared to field sites of known disturbance. For lagoon basin forests, hurricane frequency increase from 28 yrs to 15 yrs had less impact on total biomass than increase in frost from 12 yrs to 8 yrs. Both disturbances changed the community composition of the forests. The patterns of recovery vary among geomorphic types due to nutrient limitation of regrowth.

  15. How Do We Know that Human Activities Have Influenced Global Climate?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Santer, Benjamin D.

    2007-11-05

    Human activities have significantly altered not only the chemical composition of Earth's atmosphere, but also the climate system. Human influences have led to increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases, decreases in stratospheric ozone, and changes in the atmospheric burdens of sulfate and soot aerosols. All of these atmospheric constituents interact with incoming solar and outgoing terrestrial radiation. Human-induced changes in the concentrations of these constituents modify the natural radiative balance of Earth's atmosphere, and therefore perturb climate. Quantifying the size of the human effect on climate is a difficult statistical problem. 'Fingerprint' methods are typically used for this purpose. These methods involve rigorous statistical comparisons of modeled and observed climate change patterns. Fingerprinting assumes that each individual influence on climate has a unique signature in climate records. The climate fingerprints in response to different forcing factors are typically estimated with computer models, which can be used to perform the controlled experiments that we cannot conduct in the real world. One criticism of the findings of previous scientific assessments is that they have relied heavily on fingerprint studies involving changes in near-surface temperature. Recent fingerprint work, however, has considered a variety of other climate variables, such as ocean heat content, stratospheric temperatures, Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, sea level pressure, atmospheric water vapor, and the height of the tropopause. These studies illustrate that a human-induced climate change signal is identifiable in many different variables and geographic regions, and that the climate system is telling us an internally- and physically-consistent story.

  16. Carbon dioxide and global climate change: The birth and arrested development of an idea

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mudge, F.B.

    1996-12-31

    G.S. Callendar (1897--1964) is regarded the originator of the modern theory of carbon dioxide and global climate change. However, this paper shows that the theory was developed and became well accepted during the nineteenth century. Carbon dioxide was discovered by Black in 1752. From 1820 to 1890 a steadily growing number of measurements of its atmospheric concentration were made using steadily improving techniques; the average results fell from around 500 ppm in 1820 to about 300 ppm in 1890. By the end of the following decade the greenhouse theory of global climate change seemed widely accepted. However in 1900 and 1901 Aangstroem appeared to demolish the theory when he reported that changes in the carbon dioxide level can have little effect because of the overlap of the water and carbon dioxide spectral bands. At a stroke, all interest in the measurement of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels seemed to disappear, although during the 1920s and 1930s a few workers resumed the work but for reasons unconnected to climate change. Over the next thirty years the writers of authoritative textbooks dismissed the theory of carbon dioxide and climate change as an example of misguided speculation. Then in 1938 Callendar`s first paper appeared, reviving the theory which had lain forgotten for nearly forty years.

  17. Global climate change and maize production in Spain: Risk assessment and impacts of weather on yields

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Feijoo, M.L.; Mestre, F.; Iglesias, A.; Rosenzweig, C.

    1996-12-31

    The study evaluates the potential effect of climate change on maize production in Spain, combining climate models, a crop productivity model, a decision support system and a yield-response model. The study was carried out for two agricultural regions that include the largest areas of Spain where maize is grown as a high input crop. The paper combines the output from a crop model with different techniques of analysis. The scenarios used in this study were generated from the output of two General Circulation Models (GCMs): the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model (GISS) and the Canadian Climate Change Model (CCCM). The study also includes a preliminary evaluation of the potential changes in monetary returns taking into account the possible variability of grain yields and prices, using mean-Gini stochastic dominance (MGSD). A yield response model was estimated using simulated data from the crop model. Weather variables are included. Typically, temperature and precipitation are the only weather variables included in these models. However, solar radiation is another important climate factor for plant growth and development and were included in the yield response model.

  18. Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using ARM

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Measurements (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Technical Report: Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using ARM Measurements Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using ARM Measurements This five-year award supports the project "Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using ARM Measurements (FASTER)". The goal of this project is to produce accurate, consistent and comprehensive

  19. DOE Project Taps HPC for Next-Generation Climate Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    DOE Project Taps HPC for Next-Generation Climate Modeling DOE Project Taps HPC for Next-Generation Climate Modeling Berkeley Lab, NERSC to help accelerate development of state-of-the-science Earth system models August 25, 2014 Contact: Dan Krotz 510-486-4019 billcollins.jpg Bill Collins, ACME's Chief Scientist and head of the Earth Sciences Division's Climate Sciences Department at Berkeley Lab. Image: Roy Kaltschmidt High performance computing (HPC) will be used to develop and apply the most

  20. Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE) Model...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    model capable of examining many types of economic, energy, environmental, climate change mitigation, and trade policies at the international, national, U.S. regional, and U.S....

  1. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    New Project Is the ACME of Computer Science to Address Climate Change Analysis, Climate, Global Climate & Energy, Modeling, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership New Project Is the ACME of Computer Science to Address Climate Change Sandia high-performance computing (HPC) researchers are working with DOE and 14 other national laboratories and institutions to develop and apply the most complete climate and Earth system model, to address the most challenging and

  2. A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science Gent, Peter; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Conley, Andrew; Vertenstein, Mariana; Craig, Anthony 54 ENVIRONMENTAL...

  3. U.S. Global Change Research Program Recommended Citation: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    A State of Knowledge Report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program Recommended Citation: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, (eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009. The bars at the bottom of the front cover show the global annual average temperature from 1900-2008, see page 17. CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi Cambridge University Press 32

  4. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggests that global models may underestimate predictions of forest...

  5. Toward a Minimal Representation of Aerosols in Climate Models: Description

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    and Evaluation in the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5 (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Toward a Minimal Representation of Aerosols in Climate Models: Description and Evaluation in the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5 Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Toward a Minimal Representation of Aerosols in Climate Models: Description and Evaluation in the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5 A modal aerosol module (MAM) has been developed for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), the

  6. Energy and Climate Change: 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy, and the Environment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment: Energy and Climate Change will develop and advance partnerships that focus on transitioning the world to a new ...

  7. COLLOQUIUM: Ensemble Modeling of Climate-Carbon Cycle Interactions |

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Princeton Plasma Physics Lab January 23, 2013, 4:15pm to 6:30pm Colloquia MBG Auditorium COLLOQUIUM: Ensemble Modeling of Climate-Carbon Cycle Interactions Dr. John Krasting Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Abstract: PDF icon COLL.01.23.13.pdf The interactions between Earth's carbon cycle and climate are key to understanding both past and future climate change. NOAA-GFDL developed two coupled climate-carbon cycle models - or Earth System Models (ESMs) - that are able to simulate these

  8. Aeras: A next generation global atmosphere model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Spotz, William F.; Smith, Thomas M.; Demeshko, Irina P.; Fike, Jeffrey A.

    2015-06-01

    Sandia National Laboratories is developing a new global atmosphere model named Aeras that is performance portable and supports the quantification of uncertainties. These next-generation capabilities are enabled by building Aeras on top of Albany, a code base that supports the rapid development of scientific application codes while leveraging Sandia's foundational mathematics and computer science packages in Trilinos and Dakota. Embedded uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an original design capability of Albany, and performance portability is a recent upgrade. Other required features, such as shell-type elements, spectral elements, efficient explicit and semi-implicit time-stepping, transient sensitivity analysis, and concurrent ensembles, were not componentsmore » of Albany as the project began, and have been (or are being) added by the Aeras team. We present early UQ and performance portability results for the shallow water equations.« less

  9. Aeras: A next generation global atmosphere model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Spotz, William F.; Smith, Thomas M.; Demeshko, Irina P.; Fike, Jeffrey A.

    2015-06-01

    Sandia National Laboratories is developing a new global atmosphere model named Aeras that is performance portable and supports the quantification of uncertainties. These next-generation capabilities are enabled by building Aeras on top of Albany, a code base that supports the rapid development of scientific application codes while leveraging Sandia's foundational mathematics and computer science packages in Trilinos and Dakota. Embedded uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an original design capability of Albany, and performance portability is a recent upgrade. Other required features, such as shell-type elements, spectral elements, efficient explicit and semi-implicit time-stepping, transient sensitivity analysis, and concurrent ensembles, were not components of Albany as the project began, and have been (or are being) added by the Aeras team. We present early UQ and performance portability results for the shallow water equations.

  10. Development of the first nonhydrostatic nested-grid grid-point global atmospheric modeling system on parallel machines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kao, C.Y.J.; Langley, D.L.; Reisner, J.M.; Smith, W.S.

    1998-11-01

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Evaluating the importance of global and regional climate response to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases requires a comprehensive global atmospheric modeling system (GAMS) capable of simulations over a wide range of atmospheric circulations, from complex terrain to continental scales, on high-performance computers. Unfortunately, all of the existing global circulation models (GCMs) do not meet this requirements, because they suffer from one or more of the following three shortcomings: (1) use of the hydrostatic approximation, which makes the models potentially ill-posed; (2) lack of a nested-grid (or multi-grid) capability, which makes it difficult to consistently evaluate the regional climate response to the global warming, and (3) spherical spectral (opposed to grid-point finite-difference) representation of model variables, which hinders model performance for parallel machine applications. The end product of the research is a highly modularized, multi-gridded, self-calibratable (for further parameterization development) global modeling system with state-of-the-science physics and chemistry. This system will be suitable for a suite of atmospheric problems: from local circulations to climate, from thunderstorms to global cloud radiative forcing, from urban pollution to global greenhouse trace gases, and from the guiding of field experiments to coupling with ocean models. It will also provide a unique testbed for high-performance computing architecture.

  11. Short-term time step convergence in a climate model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Taylor, Mark; Jablonowski, Christiane

    2015-02-11

    A testing procedure is designed to assess the convergence property of a global climate model with respect to time step size, based on evaluation of the root-mean-square temperature difference at the end of very short (1 h) simulations with time step sizes ranging from 1 s to 1800 s. A set of validation tests conducted without sub-grid scale parameterizations confirmed that the method was able to correctly assess the convergence rate of the dynamical core under various configurations. The testing procedure was then applied to the full model, and revealed a slow convergence of order 0.4 in contrast to themoreexpected first-order convergence. Sensitivity experiments showed without ambiguity that the time stepping errors in the model were dominated by those from the stratiform cloud parameterizations, in particular the cloud microphysics. This provides a clear guidance for future work on the design of more accurate numerical methods for time stepping and process coupling in the model.less

  12. Short-term Time Step Convergence in a Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Taylor, Mark; Jablonowski, Christiane

    2015-02-11

    A testing procedure is designed to assess the convergence property of a global climate model with respect to time step size, based on evaluation of the root-mean-square temperature difference at the end of very short (1 h) simulations with time step sizes ranging from 1 s to 1800 s. A set of validation tests conducted without sub-grid scale parameterizations confirmed that the method was able to correctly assess the convergence rate of the dynamical core under various configurations. The testing procedure was then applied to the full model, and revealed a slow convergence of order 0.4 in contrast to the expected first-order convergence. Sensitivity experiments showed without ambiguity that the time stepping errors in the model were dominated by those from the stratiform cloud parameterizations, in particular the cloud microphysics. This provides a clear guidance for future work on the design of more accurate numerical methods for time stepping and process coupling in the model.

  13. Short-term Time Step Convergence in a Climate Model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Taylor, Mark; Jablonowski, Christiane

    2015-02-11

    A testing procedure is designed to assess the convergence property of a global climate model with respect to time step size, based on evaluation of the root-mean-square temperature difference at the end of very short (1 h) simulations with time step sizes ranging from 1 s to 1800 s. A set of validation tests conducted without sub-grid scale parameterizations confirmed that the method was able to correctly assess the convergence rate of the dynamical core under various configurations. The testing procedure was then applied to the full model, and revealed a slow convergence of order 0.4 in contrast to themore » expected first-order convergence. Sensitivity experiments showed without ambiguity that the time stepping errors in the model were dominated by those from the stratiform cloud parameterizations, in particular the cloud microphysics. This provides a clear guidance for future work on the design of more accurate numerical methods for time stepping and process coupling in the model.« less

  14. New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Two new observation stations -– in Alaska and the Azore islands -– should reduce uncertainties and improve global climate models.

  15. Managing the global commons decision making and conflict resolution in response to climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rayner, S. ); Naegeli, W.; Lund, P. )

    1990-07-01

    A workshop was convened to develop a better understanding of decision-making matters concerning management of the global commons and to resolve conflicts in response to climate change. This workshop report does not provide a narrative of the proceedings. The workshop program is included, as are the abstracts of the papers that were presented. Only the introductory paper on social science research by William Riebsame and the closing summary by Richard Rockwell are reprinted here. This brief report focuses instead on the deliberations of the working groups that developed during the workshop. 4 figs., 1 tab.

  16. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; et al

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmosphericmore » version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R climate model produces a complete shutdown of deep water formation in the North Atlantic.« less

  17. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; Bleck, R.; Canuto, V.; Cheng, Y.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A. D.; Faluvegi, G.; Hansen, J. E.; Healy, R. J.; Kiang, N. Y.; Koch, D.; Lacis, A. A.; LeGrande, A. N.; Lerner, J.; Lo, K. K.; Menon, S.; Oinas, V.; Perlwitz, J.; Puma, M. J.; Rind, D.; Romanou, A.; Sato, M.; Shindell, D. T.; Sun, S.; Tsigaridis, K.; Unger, N.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yao, M. -S.; Zhang, Jinlun

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R climate model produces a complete shutdown of deep water formation in the North Atlantic.

  18. Visualizing Life Zone Boundary Sensitivities Across Climate Models and Temporal Spans

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sisneros, Roberto R; Huang, Jian; Ostrouchov, George; Hoffman, Forrest M

    2011-01-01

    Life zones are a convenient and quantifiable method for delineating areas with similar plant and animal communities based on bioclimatic conditions. Such ecoregionalization techniques have proved useful for defining habitats and for studying how these habitats may shift due to environmental change. The ecological impacts of climate change are of particular interest. Here we show that visualizations of the geographic projection of life zones may be applied to the investigation of potential ecological impacts of climate change using the results of global climate model simulations. Using a multi-factor classification scheme, we show how life zones change over time based on quantitative model results into the next century. Using two straightforward metrics, we identify regions of high sensitivity to climate changes from two global climate simulations under two different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Finally, we identify how preferred human habitats may shift under these scenarios. We apply visualization methods developed for the purpose of displaying multivariate relationships within data, especially for situations that involve a large number of concurrent relationships. Our method is based on the concept of multivariate classification, and is implemented directly in VisIt, a production quality visualization package.

  19. The role of water vapor feedback in unperturbed climate variability and global warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hall, A.; Manabe, Syukuro

    1999-08-01

    To understand the role of water vapor feedback in unperturbed surface temperature variability, a version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled ocean-atmosphere model is integrated for 1,000 yr in two configurations, one with water vapor feedback and one without. To understand the role of water vapor feedback in global warming, two 500-yr integrations were also performed in which CO{sub 2} was doubled in both model configurations. The final surface global warming in the model with water vapor feedback is 3.38 C, while in the one without it is only 1.05 C. However, the model`s water vapor feedback has a larger impact on surface warming in response to a doubling of CO{sub 2} than it does on internally generated, low-frequency, global-mean surface temperature anomalies. Water vapor feedback`s strength therefore depends on the type of temperature anomaly it affects. Finally, the authors compare the local and global-mean surface temperature time series from both unperturbed variability experiments to the observed record. The experiment without water vapor feedback does not have enough global-scale variability to reproduce the magnitude of the variability in the observed global-mean record, whether or not one removes the warming trend observed over the past century. In contrast, the amount of variability in the experiment with water vapor feedback is comparable to that of the global-mean record, provided the observed warming trend is removed. Thus, the authors are unable to simulate the observed levels of variability without water vapor feedback.

  20. Climate Change Modeling and Downscaling Issues and Methodological Perspectives for the U.S. National Climate Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Janetos, Anthony C.; Collins, William D.; Wuebbles, D.J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah; Hayhoe, Katharine; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Hurtt, George

    2012-03-31

    This is the full workshop report for the modeling workshop we did for the National Climate Assessment, with DOE support.

  1. Interpretation of simulated global warming using a simple model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Watterson, I.G.

    2000-01-01

    A simple energy balance model with two parameters, an effective heat capacity and an effective climate sensitivity, is used to interpret six GCM simulations of greenhouse gas-induced global warming. By allowing the parameters to vary in time, the model can be accurately calibrated for each run. It is found that the sensitivity can be approximated as a constant in each case. However, the effective heat capacity clearly varies, and it is important that the energy equation is formulated appropriately, and thus unlike many such models. For simulations with linear forcing and from a cold start, the capacity is in each case close to that of a homogeneous ocean with depth initially 200 m, but increasing some 4.3 m each year, irrespective of the sensitivity and forcing growth rate. Analytic solutions for t his linear capacity function are derived, and these reproduce the GCM runs well, even for cases where the forcing is stabilized after a century or so. The formation of a subsurface maximum in the mean ocean temperature anomaly is a significant feature of such cases. A simple model for a GCM run with a realistic forcing scenario starting from 1,880 is constructed using component results for forcing segments. Given this, an estimate of the cold start error of a simulation of the warming due to forcing after the present would be given by the negative of the temperature drift of the anomaly due to the past forcing. The simple model can evidently be used to give an indication of likely warming curves, at lest for this range of scenarios and GCM sensitivities.

  2. Coupled ocean-atmosphere model system for studies of interannual-to-decadal climate variability over the North Pacific Basin and precipitation over the Southwestern United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lai, Chung-Chieng A.

    1997-10-01

    This is the final report of a one-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The ultimate objective of this research project is to make understanding and predicting regional climate easier. The long-term goals of this project are (1) to construct a coupled ocean-atmosphere model (COAM) system, (2) use it to explore the interannual-to-decadal climate variability over the North Pacific Basin, and (3) determine climate effects on the precipitation over the Southwestern United States. During this project life, three major tasks were completed: (1) Mesoscale ocean and atmospheric model; (2) global-coupled ocean and atmospheric modeling: completed the coupling of LANL POP global ocean model with NCAR CCM2+ global atmospheric model; and (3) global nested-grid ocean modeling: designed the boundary interface for the nested-grid ocean models.

  3. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Dale, V. H.; Rauscher, H. M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  4. ARM - Evaluation Product - Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsClimate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) Documentation Use the Data File Inventory tool to view data availability at the file level. Comments? We would love to hear from you...

  5. Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using Arm

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Measurements (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using Arm Measurements Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using Arm Measurements Under the support of this grant, we investigated the fast process of interaction of clouds, shallow convection, and boundary layer turbulence and their parameterizations. Main accomplishments involve two things. One is the understanding of

  6. Statistical surrogate models for prediction of high-consequence climate

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    change. (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Technical Report: Statistical surrogate models for prediction of high-consequence climate change. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Statistical surrogate models for prediction of high-consequence climate change. In safety engineering, performance metrics are defined using probabilistic risk assessments focused on the low-probability, high-consequence tail of the distribution of possible events, as opposed to best estimates based on

  7. Estimating present climate in a warming world: a model-based approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Raeisaenen, J.; Ruokolainen, L. [University of Helsinki (Finland). Division of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysics

    2008-09-30

    Weather services base their operational definitions of 'present' climate on past observations, using a 30-year normal period such as 1961-1990 or 1971-2000. In a world with ongoing global warming, however, past data give a biased estimate of the actual present-day climate. Here we propose to correct this bias with a 'delta change' method, in which model-simulated climate changes and observed global mean temperature changes are used to extrapolate past observations forward in time, to make them representative of present or future climate conditions. In a hindcast test for the years 1991-2002, the method works well for temperature, with a clear improvement in verification statistics compared to the case in which the hindcast is formed directly from the observations for 1961-1990. However, no improvement is found for precipitation, for which the signal-to-noise ratio between expected anthropogenic changes and interannual variability is much lower than for temperature. An application of the method to the present (around the year 2007) climate suggests that, as a geographical average over land areas excluding Antarctica, 8-9 months per year and 8-9 years per decade can be expected to be warmer than the median for 1971-2000. Along with the overall warming, a substantial increase in the frequency of warm extremes at the expense of cold extremes of monthly-to-annual temperature is expected.

  8. LEDS Global Partnership in Action: Advancing Climate-Resilient Low Emission Development Around the World (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2013-11-01

    Many countries around the globe are designing and implementing low emission development strategies (LEDS). These LEDS seek to achieve social, economic, and environmental development goals while reducing long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increasing resiliency to climate change impacts. The LEDS Global Partnership (LEDS GP) harnesses the collective knowledge and resources of more than 120 countries and international donor and technical organizations to strengthen climate-resilient low emission development efforts around the world.

  9. The accuracy of climate models' simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of grid scale correction factors

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Winterhalter, Wade E.

    2011-09-01

    Global climate change is expected to impact biological populations through a variety of mechanisms including increases in the length of their growing season. Climate models are useful tools for predicting how season length might change in the future. However, the accuracy of these models tends to be rather low at regional geographic scales. Here, I determined the ability of several atmosphere and ocean general circulating models (AOGCMs) to accurately simulate historical season lengths for a temperate ectotherm across the continental United States. I also evaluated the effectiveness of regional-scale correction factors to improve the accuracy of these models. I foundmore » that both the accuracy of simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of the correction factors to improve the model's accuracy varied geographically and across models. These results suggest that regional specific correction factors do not always adequately remove potential discrepancies between simulated and historically observed environmental parameters. As such, an explicit evaluation of the correction factors' effectiveness should be included in future studies of global climate change's impact on biological populations.« less

  10. The accuracy of climate models' simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of grid scale correction factors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Winterhalter, Wade E.

    2011-09-01

    Global climate change is expected to impact biological populations through a variety of mechanisms including increases in the length of their growing season. Climate models are useful tools for predicting how season length might change in the future. However, the accuracy of these models tends to be rather low at regional geographic scales. Here, I determined the ability of several atmosphere and ocean general circulating models (AOGCMs) to accurately simulate historical season lengths for a temperate ectotherm across the continental United States. I also evaluated the effectiveness of regional-scale correction factors to improve the accuracy of these models. I found that both the accuracy of simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of the correction factors to improve the model's accuracy varied geographically and across models. These results suggest that regional specific correction factors do not always adequately remove potential discrepancies between simulated and historically observed environmental parameters. As such, an explicit evaluation of the correction factors' effectiveness should be included in future studies of global climate change's impact on biological populations.

  11. Impact of modern climate change on the intercommunication: Global ocean-land (Northern Hemisphere)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lobanova, H.V.; Lobanov, V.A.; Stepanenko, S.R.

    1996-12-31

    Two main temperature gradients define the synoptic and climatic conditions on the earth in general: equator-pole gradient and ocean-land gradient. The analysis of temperature on the basis of new cyclic-different-scales conception has been fulfilled in every important part of the climatic system in the Northern Hemisphere for assessment of their vulnerability to modern climate change. Historical time series of monthly surface temperature have been used for this aim in the points of regular grid over the Northern Hemisphere from 1891 to 1992. The main feature of the temperature in main climatic parts of the earth is a complexity of its spatial structure. New methods of spatial decomposition have been developed for the division of this complex fields structure into characteristics of mean value of the field and index of its non-homogeneity or spatial variation. It has been established, that the temperature gradient between ocean and land is increasing that is characterized of the increasing of an intensity of synoptic processes, their spatial non-homogeneity and more frequent appearance of the extreme synoptic events. The models of intercommunications between coefficients of temperature spatial decomposition over the ocean and land have been developed for two time period and the increasing of the relationships closeness has been established between ocean and land as well as the decrease of main planet gradient: the pole(the Polar ocean)-equator.

  12. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Richardson, Andrew D.

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  13. Global Distribution and Climate Forcing of Marine Organic Aerosol - Part 2: Effects on Cloud Properties and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gantt, Brett; Xu, Jun; Meskhidze, N.; Zhang, Yang; Nenes, Athanasios; Ghan, Steven J.; Liu, Xiaohong; Easter, Richard C.; Zaveri, Rahul A.

    2012-07-25

    A series of simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with a 7-mode Modal Aerosol Model were conducted to assess the changes in cloud microphysical properties and radiative forcing resulting from marine organic aerosols. Model simulations show that the anthropogenic aerosol indirect forcing (AIF) predicted by CAM5 is decreased in absolute magnitude by up to 0.09 Wm{sup -2} (7 %) when marine organic aerosols are included. Changes in the AIF from marine organic aerosols are associated with small global increases in low-level incloud droplet number concentration and liquid water path of 1.3 cm{sup -3} (1.5 %) and 0.22 gm{sup -2} (0.5 %), respectively. Areas especially sensitive to changes in cloud properties due to marine organic aerosol include the Southern Ocean, North Pacific Ocean, and North Atlantic Ocean, all of which are characterized by high marine organic emission rates. As climate models are particularly sensitive to the background aerosol concentration, this small but non-negligible change in the AIF due to marine organic aerosols provides a notable link for ocean-ecosystem marine low-level cloud interactions and may be a candidate for consideration in future earth system models.

  14. Global

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Permalink EC, DHS's S&T Directorate, Federal Emergency Management Agency: SUMMIT Analysis, Capabilities, Facilities, Global, Infrastructure Security, Modeling, Modeling & Analysis, NISAC, Partnership, Research & Capabilities EC, DHS's S&T Directorate, Federal Emergency Management Agency: SUMMIT Natural disasters create emergency situations that must be dealt with quickly and effectively in order to minimize injury and loss of life. Simulating such events before they occur can

  15. International potential of IGCC technology for use in reducing global warming and climate change emissions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lau, F.S.

    1996-12-31

    High efficiency advanced coal-based technologies such as Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) that can assist in reducing CO{sub 2} emissions which contribute to Global Warming and Climate Change are becoming commercially available. U-GAS is an advanced gasification technology that can be used in many applications to convert coal in a high efficiency manner that will reduce the total amount of CO{sub 2} produced by requiring less coal-based fuel per unit of energy output. This paper will focus on the status of the installation and performance of the IGT U-GAS gasifiers which were installed at the Shanghai Cooking and Chemical Plant General located in Shanghai, China. Its use in future IGCC project for the production of power and the benefits of IGCC in reducing CO{sub 2} emissions through its high efficiency operation will be discussed.

  16. The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lynch, Peter [Meteorology and Climate Centre, School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Dublin, Belfield (Ireland)], E-mail: Peter.Lynch@ucd.ie

    2008-03-20

    Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed.

  17. What does the 2C Target Imply for a Global Climate Agreement in 2020? The LIMITS Study on Durban Action Platform Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Tavoni, Massimo; Aboumahboub, Tino; Luderer, Gunnar; Calvin, Katherine V.; DeMaere, Gauthier; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan; Rosler, Hilke; Schaeffer, Michiel; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2013-11-01

    This paper provides a novel and comprehensive model?based assessment of possible outcomes of the Durban Platform negotiations with a focus on emissions reduction requirements, the consistency with the 2C target and global economic impacts. The Durban Action scenarios investigated in the LIMITS studyall assuming the implementation of comprehensive global emission reductions after 2020, but assuming different 2020 emission reduction levels and different long?term stabilization targetsshow that the probability of exceeding the 2C limit increases with stabilization target from below one third for 450?470 ppm to 40?60% for 490?510 ppm in 2100. Global time?averaged economic costs of the Durban Action scenarios are limited across models, and are largely unaffected by the stringency of 2020 pledges. By contrast, the economic impact of delaying action beyond 2030 is much stronger on transitional costs. The main significance of short term action in the period 2010?2030 lies in preparing the ground for steep emissions reductions thereafter by inducing global emissions to peak and decline. The institutional challenges of all scenarios with fragmented near?term climate policy can be expected to be high as reflected in a steep rise of carbon prices and decarbonization rates until 2040. We conclude that an agreement on comprehensive emissions reductions to be implemented from 2020 onwards has particular significance for meeting long term climate policy objectives.

  18. Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Kyle, G. Page; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Havlik, Petr; van Meijl, Hans; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Popp, Alexander; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk; Wise, Marshall A.

    2014-01-01

    Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, e.g. from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an RCP2.6-type scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in an RCP8.5-type scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.

  19. Towards Ultra-High Resolution Models of Climate and Weather

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wehner, Michael; Oliker, Leonid; Shalf, John

    2007-01-01

    We present a speculative extrapolation of the performance aspects of an atmospheric general circulation model to ultra-high resolution and describe alternative technological paths to realize integration of such a model in the relatively near future. Due to a superlinear scaling of the computational burden dictated by stability criterion, the solution of the equations of motion dominate the calculation at ultra-high resolutions. From this extrapolation, it is estimated that a credible kilometer scale atmospheric model would require at least a sustained ten petaflop computer to provide scientifically useful climate simulations. Our design study portends an alternate strategy for practical power-efficient implementations of petaflop scale systems. Embedded processor technology could be exploited to tailor a custom machine designed to ultra-high climate model specifications at relatively affordable cost and power considerations. The major conceptual changes required by a kilometer scale climate model are certain to be difficult to implement. Although the hardware, software, and algorithms are all equally critical in conducting ultra-high climate resolution studies, it is likely that the necessary petaflop computing technology will be available in advance of a credible kilometer scale climate model.

  20. Modeling international cooperation for the global environmental problematique

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sadeh, E.

    1997-12-31

    The focus of this study is on international cooperative decision-making related to global change issues concerning stratospheric ozone depletion and global climate warming. Such anthropogenic alteration of the Earth`s biosphere has given rise to a global environmental problematique that is demarcated by two dimensions. The first dimension is that global environmental Issues are demarcated by international environmental commons. Commons are defined as physical or biological systems that lie outside the jurisdiction of any individual state and are valued environmental resources globally. A second dimension pertains to tile collective action problem which results from a {open_quotes}tragedy of the commons.{close_quotes} According to traditional realist conception of international relations, that states behave in their rational self-interest, a {open_quotes}tragedy of the commons{close_quotes} ensues. The tragedy is a function of damage to the global environment, such as the production of economic resources that release greenhouse gases into the Earth`s biosphere, that is nonappropriable. Commons resources relative to the Earth`s biosphere are not limitless. At issue, is the realization of sustainable economic development promoted by cooperative political patterns that mitigate the negative consequences of this tragedy.

  1. Climate Models: Rob Jacob | Argonne National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    --Tribology -Mathematics, computing, & computer science --Cloud computing --Modeling, simulation, & visualization --Petascale & exascale computing --Supercomputing &...

  2. Aerosol, Cloud, and Climate: From Observation to Model (457th Brookhaven Lecture)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Jian

    2010-05-12

    In the last 100 years, the Earth has warmed by about 1F, glaciers and sea ice have been melting more quickly than previously, especially during the past decade, and the level of the sea has risen about 6-8 inches worldwide. Scientists have long been investigating this phenomenon of global warming, which is believed to be at least partly due to the increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the air from burning fossil fuels. Funded by DOE, teams of researchers from BNL and other national labs have been gathering data in the U.S. and internationally to build computer models of climate and weather to help in understanding general patterns, causes, and perhaps, solutions. Among many findings, researchers observed that atmospheric aerosols, minute particles in the atmosphere, can significantly affect global energy balance and climate. Directly, aerosols scatter and absorb sunlight. Indirectly, increased aerosol concentration can lead to smaller cloud droplets, changing clouds in ways that tend to cool global climate and potentially mask overall warming from man-made CO2.

  3. Aerosol, Cloud, and Climate: From Observation to Model (457th Brookhaven Lecture)

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Wang, Jian [Ph.D., Environmental Sciences Department

    2010-09-01

    In the last 100 years, the Earth has warmed by about 1ºF, glaciers and sea ice have been melting more quickly than previously, especially during the past decade, and the level of the sea has risen about 6-8 inches worldwide. Scientists have long been investigating this phenomenon of ?global warming,? which is believed to be at least partly due to the increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the air from burning fossil fuels. Funded by DOE, teams of researchers from BNL and other national labs have been gathering data in the U.S. and internationally to build computer models of climate and weather to help in understanding general patterns, causes, and perhaps, solutions. Among many findings, researchers observed that atmospheric aerosols, minute particles in the atmosphere, can significantly affect global energy balance and climate. Directly, aerosols scatter and absorb sunlight. Indirectly, increased aerosol concentration can lead to smaller cloud droplets, changing clouds in ways that tend to cool global climate and potentially mask overall warming from man-made CO2.

  4. Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD) | U.S. DOE Office of

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Science (SC) Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD) Biological and Environmental Research (BER) BER Home About Research Biological Systems Science Division (BSSD) Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD) ARM Climate Research Facility Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program Data Management Earth System Modeling (ESM) Program William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) Integrated Assessment of Global Climate Change Regional & Global Climate

  5. A process oriented analysis of the ``declaration of German industry on global warming prevention'' and its implications for the role of voluntary approaches in post-Kyoto climate policy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ramesohl, S.; Kristof, K.

    1999-07-01

    Challenged by industry's growing claim for higher self-responsibility and more flexibility, energy and climate policy-makers need to define a future role of voluntary approaches (VA) which realizes the benefits but guarantees environmental effectiveness and political efficiency of these initiatives. Taking the 1996 ``Declaration of German industry on global warming prevention (DGWP)'' as an example of an energy related VA, the paper pursues a dual approach for policy analysis in order to evaluate the static performance and the dynamic process features of the DFWP approach. Transferred to a dynamic model of co-evolutionary climate policy-making, the general conclusions of the German case for climate policy are discussed.

  6. Long-Term Regional Climate Simulations Driven by Two Global Reanalyses and a GCM for the Western United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai R.; Bian, Xindi; Qian, Yun

    2002-01-01

    To take advantage of recent development in the NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5), an effort has been organized to develop and evaluate an MM5-based community regional climate model. Several modifications such as the implementation of the PNNL subgrid parameterization of orographic precipitation, representation of cloud-radiation interaction, and additional output capabilities have been made to the recently released MM5 Version 3.4. To evaluate the model, several long-term simulations have been performed over the western U.S. These simulations were driven by the NCEP/NCAR and ECMWF reanalyses respectively for 20 and 13 years beginning at 1980. The western U.S. is marked by diverse topographic features and varied climate conditions such as the maritime climate in the coastal area and the semi-arid climate in the southwest. We will present results based on two domain configurations: a nested domain with a fine domain covering the western U.S. at 40 km resolution, and a single domain at 60 km resolution with the subgrid orographic precipitation scheme applied in the western U.S. Analyses are being performed to evaluate the simulations of the averaged climate and interannual variability and examine the model sensitivity to different boundary conditions. Our analyses focus on the relationships between large-scale circulation and regional climate features, surface energy and water budgets, orographic precipitation, and hydrologic conditions within selected river basins. Regional simulations are also being performed using large-scale conditions simulated by the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model (PCM). The regional model was used to downscale the ensemble PCM climate change scenarios for periods of 10-20 years in the current and future climate. Results will be analyzed to study the impacts of greenhouse warming on regional water resources in the western U.S.

  7. An Interactive Multi-Model for Consensus on Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kocarev, Ljupco

    2014-07-02

    This project purports to develop a new scheme for forming consensus among alternative climate models, that give widely divergent projections as to the details of climate change, that is more intelligent than simply averaging the model outputs, or averaging with ex post facto weighting factors. The method under development effectively allows models to assimilate data from one another in run time with weights that are chosen in an adaptive training phase using 20th century data, so that the models synchronize with one another as well as with reality. An alternate approach that is being explored in parallel is the automated combination of equations from different models in an expert-system-like framework.

  8. Final Report for High Latitude Climate Modeling: ARM Takes Us Beyond Case Studies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Russell, Lynn M

    2013-06-18

    The main thrust of this project was to devise a method by which the majority of North Slope of Alaska (NSA) meteorological and radiometric data, collected on a daily basis, could be used to evaluate and improve global climate model (GCM) simulations and their parameterizations, particularly for cloud microphysics. Although the standard ARM Program sensors for a less complete suite of instruments for cloud and aerosol studies than the instruments on an intensive field program such as the 2008 Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), the advantage they offer lies in the long time base and large volume of data that covers a wide range of meteorological and climatological conditions. The challenge has been devising a method to interpret the NSA data in a practical way, so that a wide variety of meteorological conditions in all seasons can be examined with climate models. If successful, climate modelers would have a robust alternative to the usual case study approach (i.e., from intensive field programs only) for testing and evaluating their parameterizations performance. Understanding climate change on regional scales requires a broad scientific consideration of anthropogenic influences that goes beyond greenhouse gas emissions to also include aerosol-induced changes in cloud properties. For instance, it is now clear that on small scales, human-induced aerosol plumes can exert microclimatic radiative and hydrologic forcing that rivals that of greenhouse gasforced warming. This project has made significant scientific progress by investigating what causes successive versions of climate models continue to exhibit errors in cloud amount, cloud microphysical and radiative properties, precipitation, and radiation balance, as compared with observations and, in particular, in Arctic regions. To find out what is going wrong, we have tested the models' cloud representation over the full range of meteorological conditions found in the Arctic using the ARM North Slope of Alaska (NSA) data.

  9. Livermore research finds that climate models overestimate rainfall

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    increases | National Nuclear Security Administration research finds that climate models overestimate rainfall increases | National Nuclear Security Administration Facebook Twitter Youtube Flickr RSS People Mission Managing the Stockpile Preventing Proliferation Powering the Nuclear Navy Emergency Response Recapitalizing Our Infrastructure Countering Nuclear Terrorism About Our Programs Our History Who We Are Our Leadership Our Locations Budget Our Operations Library Bios Congressional

  10. NNSA's National Laboratories Engage in Climate Modeling, Data Gathering |

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    National Nuclear Security Administration National Laboratories Engage in Climate Modeling, Data Gathering | National Nuclear Security Administration Facebook Twitter Youtube Flickr RSS People Mission Managing the Stockpile Preventing Proliferation Powering the Nuclear Navy Emergency Response Recapitalizing Our Infrastructure Countering Nuclear Terrorism About Our Programs Our History Who We Are Our Leadership Our Locations Budget Our Operations Library Bios Congressional Testimony Fact

  11. New partnership uses advanced computer science modeling to address climate

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    change | National Nuclear Security Administration partnership uses advanced computer science modeling to address climate change | National Nuclear Security Administration Facebook Twitter Youtube Flickr RSS People Mission Managing the Stockpile Preventing Proliferation Powering the Nuclear Navy Emergency Response Recapitalizing Our Infrastructure Countering Nuclear Terrorism About Our Programs Our History Who We Are Our Leadership Our Locations Budget Our Operations Library Bios

  12. Statistical representation of clouds in climate models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    approach for representing ice microphysics in bin and bulk schemes: Application to TWP-ICE deep convection Hugh Morrison and Wojciech Grabowski National Center for Atmospheric Research ARM STM, Monday, April 1, 2009 -1) Uncertainty of ice initiation processes -2) Wide range of ice particle characteristics (e.g., shape, effective density) -3) No clear separation of physical processes for small and large crystals The treatment of ice microphysics has a large impact on model simulations, e.g.,

  13. Modelling of mineral dust for interglacial and glacial climate conditions with a focus on Antarctica

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sudarchikova, Natalia; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Timmreck, C.; O'Donnell, D.; Schurgers, G.; Sein, Dmitry; Zhang, Kai

    2015-01-01

    Mineral dust cycle responds to insolation-induced climate change and plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Polar ice cores provide unique information about deposition of aeolian dust particles in the past which indicates climate variability. In the current study the dust cycle in different climate conditions simulated by ECHAM5-HAM is analyzed. The study is focused on the Southern Hemisphere with emphasis on the Antarctic region. The investigated periods include four interglacial time-slices: the pre-industrial control (CTRL), mid-Holocene (6,000 years BP), Eemian (126,000 years BP), last glacial inception (115,000 years BP) and one glacial time interval: Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21,000 years BP). This study is a first attempt to simulate past interglacial dust cycles and to understand the quantitative contribution of different processes, such as emission, atmospheric transport and precipitation to the total dust deposition in Antarctica. Results suggest increased deposition of mineral dust globally and in Antarctica in the past interglacial periods relative to the preindustrial CTRL simulation. Maximum dust deposition in Antarctica was simulated for the glacial period. One of the major factors responsible for the increase of dust deposition in the mid-Holocene and Eemian is enhanced Southern Hemisphere dust emissions. The moderate change of dust deposition in Antarctica in the last glacial inception period is caused by the slightly stronger poleward atmospheric transport efficiency compared to the pre-industrial. In the LGM simulation, dust deposition over Antarctica is substantially increased due to 2.6 times higher Southern Hemisphere dust emissions, 2 times stronger atmospheric transport towards Antarctica, and 30% weaker precipitation over the Southern Ocean. The model is able to reproduce the order of magnitude of dust deposition globally and in Antarctica for the pre-industrial and LGM climate. However more records are needed to validate simulated dust deposition for the past interglacial time-slices.

  14. Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Wehner, Michael F.; Bala, G.; Duffy, Phillip; Mirin, Arthur A.; Romano, Raquel

    2010-01-01

    We present a set of high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations focusing on the model's ability to represent tropical storms and their statistics. We find that the model produces storms of hurricane strength with realistic dynamical features. We also find that tropical storm statistics are reasonable, both globally and in the north Atlantic, when compared to recent observations. The sensitivity of simulated tropical storm statistics to increases in sea surface temperature (SST) is also investigated, revealing that a credible late 21st century SST increase produced increases in simulated tropical storm numbers and intensities in all ocean basins. Whilemore » this paper supports previous high-resolution model and theoretical findings that the frequency of very intense storms will increase in a warmer climate, it differs notably from previous medium and high-resolution model studies that show a global reduction in total tropical storm frequency. However, we are quick to point out that this particular model finding remains speculative due to a lack of radiative forcing changes in our time-slice experiments as well as a focus on the Northern hemisphere tropical storm seasons.« less

  15. International impacts of global climate change: Testimony to House Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations, Export Financing and Related Programs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fulkerson, W.; Cushman, R.M.; Marland, G.; Rayner, S.

    1989-02-21

    International impacts of global climate change are those for which the important consequences arise because of national sovereignty. Such impacts could be of two types: (1) migrations across national borders of people, of resources (such as agricultural productivity, or surface water, or natural ecosystems), of effluents, or of patterns of commerce; and (2) changes to the way nations use and manage their resources, particularly fossil fuels and forests, as a consequence of international concern over the global climate. Actions by a few resource-dominant nations may affect the fate of all. These two types of international impacts raise complex equity issues because one nation may perceive itself as gaining at the expense of its neighbors, or it may perceive itself as a victim of the actions of others. 11 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  16. The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

  17. Baseline for Climate Change: Modeling Watershed Aquatic Biodiversity Relative to Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maurakis, Eugene G

    2010-10-01

    Objectives of the two-year study were to (1) establish baselines for fish and macroinvertebrate community structures in two mid-Atlantic lower Piedmont watersheds (Quantico Creek, a pristine forest watershed; and Cameron Run, an urban watershed, Virginia) that can be used to monitor changes relative to the impacts related to climate change in the future; (2) create mathematical expressions to model fish species richness and diversity, and macroinvertebrate taxa and macroinvertebrate functional feeding group taxa richness and diversity that can serve as a baseline for future comparisons in these and other watersheds in the mid-Atlantic region; and (3) heighten peoples awareness, knowledge and understanding of climate change and impacts on watersheds in a laboratory experience and interactive exhibits, through internship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, a week-long teacher workshop, and a website about climate change and watersheds. Mathematical expressions modeled fish and macroinvertebrate richness and diversity accurately well during most of the six thermal seasons where sample sizes were robust. Additionally, hydrologic models provide the basis for estimating flows under varying meteorological conditions and landscape changes. Continuations of long-term studies are requisite for accurately teasing local human influences (e.g. urbanization and watershed alteration) from global anthropogenic impacts (e.g. climate change) on watersheds. Effective and skillful translations (e.g. annual potential exposure of 750,000 people to our inquiry-based laboratory activities and interactive exhibits in Virginia) of results of scientific investigations are valuable ways of communicating information to the general public to enhance their understanding of climate change and its effects in watersheds.

  18. Modelling of mineral dust for interglacial and glacial climate conditions with a focus on Antarctica

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Sudarchikova, Natalia; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Timmreck, C.; O'Donnell, D.; Schurgers, G.; Sein, Dmitry; Zhang, Kai

    2015-05-19

    The mineral dust cycle responds to climate variations and plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative balance of the atmosphere and modifying biogeochemistry. Polar ice cores provide unique information about deposition of aeolian dust particles transported over long distances. These cores are a palaeoclimate proxy archive of climate variability thousands of years ago. The current study is a first attempt to simulate past interglacial dust cycles with a global aerosol–climate model ECHAM5-HAM. The results are used to explain the dust deposition changes in Antarctica in terms of quantitative contribution of different processes, such as emission,more » atmospheric transport and precipitation, which will help to interpret palaeodata from Antarctic ice cores. The investigated periods include four interglacial time slices: the pre-industrial control (CTRL), mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP; hereafter referred to as \\"6 kyr\\"), last glacial inception (115 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"115 kyr\\") and Eemian (126 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"126 kyr\\"). One glacial time interval, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"21 kyr\\"), was simulated as well to be a reference test for the model. Results suggest an increase in mineral dust deposition globally, and in Antarctica, in the past interglacial periods relative to the pre-industrial CTRL simulation. Approximately two-thirds of the increase in the mid-Holocene and Eemian is attributed to enhanced Southern Hemisphere dust emissions. Slightly strengthened transport efficiency causes the remaining one-third of the increase in dust deposition. The moderate change in dust deposition in Antarctica in the last glacial inception period is caused by the slightly stronger poleward atmospheric transport efficiency compared to the pre-industrial. Maximum dust deposition in Antarctica was simulated for the glacial period. LGM dust deposition in Antarctica is substantially increased due to 2.6 times higher Southern Hemisphere dust emissions, 2 times stronger atmospheric transport towards Antarctica, and 30% weaker precipitation over the Southern Ocean. The model is able to reproduce the order of magnitude of dust deposition globally and in Antarctica for the pre-industrial and LGM climates.« less

  19. Modelling of mineral dust for interglacial and glacial climate conditions with a focus on Antarctica

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sudarchikova, Natalia; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Timmreck, C.; O'Donnell, D.; Schurgers, G.; Sein, Dmitry; Zhang, Kai

    2015-05-19

    The mineral dust cycle responds to climate variations and plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative balance of the atmosphere and modifying biogeochemistry. Polar ice cores provide unique information about deposition of aeolian dust particles transported over long distances. These cores are a palaeoclimate proxy archive of climate variability thousands of years ago. The current study is a first attempt to simulate past interglacial dust cycles with a global aerosol–climate model ECHAM5-HAM. The results are used to explain the dust deposition changes in Antarctica in terms of quantitative contribution of different processes, such as emission, atmospheric transport and precipitation, which will help to interpret palaeodata from Antarctic ice cores. The investigated periods include four interglacial time slices: the pre-industrial control (CTRL), mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP; hereafter referred to as \\"6 kyr\\"), last glacial inception (115 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"115 kyr\\") and Eemian (126 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"126 kyr\\"). One glacial time interval, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"21 kyr\\"), was simulated as well to be a reference test for the model. Results suggest an increase in mineral dust deposition globally, and in Antarctica, in the past interglacial periods relative to the pre-industrial CTRL simulation. Approximately two-thirds of the increase in the mid-Holocene and Eemian is attributed to enhanced Southern Hemisphere dust emissions. Slightly strengthened transport efficiency causes the remaining one-third of the increase in dust deposition. The moderate change in dust deposition in Antarctica in the last glacial inception period is caused by the slightly stronger poleward atmospheric transport efficiency compared to the pre-industrial. Maximum dust deposition in Antarctica was simulated for the glacial period. LGM dust deposition in Antarctica is substantially increased due to 2.6 times higher Southern Hemisphere dust emissions, 2 times stronger atmospheric transport towards Antarctica, and 30% weaker precipitation over the Southern Ocean. The model is able to reproduce the order of magnitude of dust deposition globally and in Antarctica for the pre-industrial and LGM climates.

  20. Climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Climate Home/Climate - subter_intern Permalink Gallery Subsurface Technology & Engineering Research (SubTER) Internship Opportunities Climate, News Subsurface Technology & Engineering Research (SubTER) Internship Opportunities Sandia National Laboratories will offer a Subsurface Technology & Engineering Research (SubTER) oriented summer internship mid-May through early August 2016 and focus on subjects including geophysical data processing, tomographic imaging, automatic picking, and

  1. Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schmitz, Christoph; van Meijl, Hans; Kyle, G. Page; Nelson, Gerald C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gurgel, Angelo; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; von Lampe, Martin; Wise, Marshall A.; Blanc, Elodie; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Valin, Hugo

    2014-01-01

    Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 1025% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.

  2. Comparing Climate Models to Real World Shows Differences in Precipitation

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Intensity | U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC) Comparing Climate Models to Real World Shows Differences in Precipitation Intensity Biological and Environmental Research (BER) BER Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Searchable Archive of BER Highlights External link Benefits of BER Funding Opportunities Biological & Environmental Research Advisory Committee (BERAC) Community Resources Contact Information Biological and Environmental Research U.S. Department of Energy

  3. Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy | Argonne Leadership Computing

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Facility An example of a Category 5 hurricane simulated by the CESM at 13 km resolution An example of a Category 5 hurricane simulated by the CESM at 13 km resolution. Precipitable water (gray scale) shows the detailed dynamical structure in the flow. Strong precipitation is overlaid in red. High resolution is necessary to simulate reasonable numbers of tropical cyclones including Category 4 and 5 storms. Alan Scott and Mark Taylor, Sandia National Laboratories Accelerated Climate Modeling

  4. Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol-climate model intercomparison studies

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.

    2014-04-24

    Nudging is an assimilation technique widely used in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosolmore »concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on longwave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects through ice clouds, since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.« less

  5. Development of Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerant Solutions for Commercial Refrigeration Systems using a Life Cycle Climate Performance Design Tool

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abdelaziz, Omar; Fricke, Brian A; Vineyard, Edward Allan

    2012-01-01

    Commercial refrigeration systems are known to be prone to high leak rates and to consume large amounts of electricity. As such, direct emissions related to refrigerant leakage and indirect emissions resulting from primary energy consumption contribute greatly to their Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP). In this paper, an LCCP design tool is used to evaluate the performance of a typical commercial refrigeration system with alternative refrigerants and minor system modifications to provide lower Global Warming Potential (GWP) refrigerant solutions with improved LCCP compared to baseline systems. The LCCP design tool accounts for system performance, ambient temperature, and system load; system performance is evaluated using a validated vapor compression system simulation tool while ambient temperature and system load are devised from a widely used building energy modeling tool (EnergyPlus). The LCCP design tool also accounts for the change in hourly electricity emission rate to yield an accurate prediction of indirect emissions. The analysis shows that conventional commercial refrigeration system life cycle emissions are largely due to direct emissions associated with refrigerant leaks and that system efficiency plays a smaller role in the LCCP. However, as a transition occurs to low GWP refrigerants, the indirect emissions become more relevant. Low GWP refrigerants may not be suitable for drop-in replacements in conventional commercial refrigeration systems; however some mixtures may be introduced as transitional drop-in replacements. These transitional refrigerants have a significantly lower GWP than baseline refrigerants and as such, improved LCCP. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the tradeoffs between refrigerant GWP, efficiency and capacity.

  6. THE APPLICATION OF A STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING PROCESS TO DERIVE 21{sup ST} CENTURY RIVER FLOW PREDICTIONS USING A GLOBAL CLIMATE SIMULATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Werth, D.; Chen, K. F.

    2013-08-22

    The ability of water managers to maintain adequate supplies in coming decades depends, in part, on future weather conditions, as climate change has the potential to alter river flows from their current values, possibly rendering them unable to meet demand. Reliable climate projections are therefore critical to predicting the future water supply for the United States. These projections cannot be provided solely by global climate models (GCMs), however, as their resolution is too coarse to resolve the small-scale climate changes that can affect hydrology, and hence water supply, at regional to local scales. A process is needed to downscale the GCM results to the smaller scales and feed this into a surface hydrology model to help determine the ability of rivers to provide adequate flow to meet future needs. We apply a statistical downscaling to GCM projections of precipitation and temperature through the use of a scaling method. This technique involves the correction of the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of the GCM-derived temperature and precipitation results for the 20{sup th} century, and the application of the same correction to 21{sup st} century GCM projections. This is done for three meteorological stations located within the Coosa River basin in northern Georgia, and is used to calculate future river flow statistics for the upper Coosa River. Results are compared to the historical Coosa River flow upstream from Georgia Power Companys Hammond coal-fired power plant and to flows calculated with the original, unscaled GCM results to determine the impact of potential changes in meteorology on future flows.

  7. Climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SunShot Grand Challenge: Regional Test Centers Climate Home/Tag:Climate - Electricity use by water service sector and county. Shown are electricity use by (a) large-scale conveyance, (b) groundwater irrigation pumping, (c) surface water irrigation pumping, (d) drinking water, and (e) wastewater. Aggregate electricity use across these sectors (f) is also mapped. Permalink Gallery Sandians Recognized in Environmental Science & Technology's Best Paper Competition Analysis, Capabilities,

  8. World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3): Multi-Model Dataset Archive at PCMDI (Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    In response to a proposed activity of the WCRP's Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM),PCMDI volunteered to collect model output contributed by leading modeling centers around the world. Climate model output from simulations of the past, present and future climate was collected by PCMDI mostly during the years 2005 and 2006, and this archived data constitutes phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). In part, the WGCM organized this activity to enable those outside the major modeling centers to perform research of relevance to climate scientists preparing the Fourth Asssessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC was established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Program to assess scientific information on climate change. The IPCC publishes reports that summarize the state of the science. This unprecedented collection of recent model output is officially known as the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. It is meant to serve IPCC's Working Group 1, which focuses on the physical climate system - atmosphere, land surface, ocean and sea ice - and the choice of variables archived at the PCMDI reflects this focus. A more comprehensive set of output for a given model may be available from the modeling center that produced it. As of November 2007, over 35 terabytes of data were in the archive and over 303 terabytes of data had been downloaded among the more than 1200 registered users. Over 250 journal articles, based at least in part on the dataset, have been published or have been accepted for peer-reviewed publication. Countries from which models have been gathered include Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany and Korea, Italy, Japan, Norway, Russia, Great Britain and the United States. Models, variables, and documentation are collected and stored. Check http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/data_status_tables.htm to see at a glance the output that is available. (Description taken from http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php)

  9. A Hierarchical Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ringler, Todd; Collins, William D.; Taylor, Mark; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2013-08-20

    Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tools for predicting the evolution of the climate system. Through decades of development, GCMs have demonstrated useful skill in simulating climate at continental to global scales. However, large uncertainties remain in projecting climate change at regional scales, which limit our ability to inform decisions on climate change adaptation and mitigation. To bridge this gap, different modeling approaches including nested regional climate models (RCMs), global stretch-grid models, and global high-resolution atmospheric models have been used to provide regional climate simulations (Leung et al. 2003). In previous efforts to evaluate these approaches, isolating their relative merits was not possible because factors such as dynamical frameworks, physics parameterizations, and model resolutions were not systematically constrained. With advances in high performance computing, it is now feasible to run coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs at horizontal resolution comparable to what RCMs use today. Global models with local refinement using unstructured grids have become available for modeling regional climate (e.g., Rauscher et al. 2012; Ringler et al. 2013). While they offer opportunities to improve climate simulations, significant efforts are needed to test their veracity for regional-scale climate simulations.

  10. Light-absorbing Particles in Snow and Ice: Measurement and Modeling of Climatic and Hydrological Impact

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qian, Yun; Yasunari, Teppei J.; Doherty, Sarah J.; Flanner, M. G.; Lau, William K.; Ming, J.; Wang, Hailong; Wang, Mo; Warren, Stephen G.; Zhang, Rudong

    2015-01-01

    Light absorbing particles (LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust) influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance (a.k.a., surface darkening), which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice (LAPSI) has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g. in the fourth and fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, andclimatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.

  11. Global Climate Change: Some Implications, Opportunities, and Challenges for US Forestry

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Marland, G.

    1991-06-01

    It is widely agreed that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth`s atmosphere is increasing, that this increase is a consequence of man`s activities, and that there is significant risk that this will lead to changes in the earth`s climate. The question is now being discussed what, if anything, we should be doing to minimize and/or adapt to changes in climate. Virtually every statement on this matter; from the US Office of Technology Assessment, to the National Academy of Science, to the Nairobi Declaration on Climatic Change, includes some recommendation for planting and protecting forests. In fact, forestry is intimately involved in the climate change debate for several reasons: changing climate patterns will affect existing forests, tropical deforestation is one of the major sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, reforestation projects could remove additional carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and there is renewed interest in wood-based or other renewable fuels to replace fossil fuels. Part of the enthusiasm for forestry-related strategies in a greenhouse context is the perception that forests not only provide greenhouse benefits but also serve other desirable social objectives. This discussion will explore the current range of thinking in this area and try to stimulate additional thinking on the rationality of the forestry-based approaches and the challenges posed for US forestry.

  12. Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol–climate model intercomparison studies

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.

    2014-08-26

    Nudging as an assimilation technique has seen increased use in recent years in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity ofmore »simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on long-wave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations, and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. Results from both CAM5 and a second aerosol–climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 also indicate that compared to the wind-and-temperature nudging, constraining only winds leads to better agreement with the free-running model in terms of the estimated shortwave cloud forcing and the simulated convective activities. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.« less

  13. Climate mitigations impact on global and regional electric power sector water use in the 21st Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dooley, James J.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan

    2013-08-05

    Over the course of this coming century, global electricity use is expected to grow at least five fold and if stringent greenhouse gas emissions controls are in place the growth could be more than seven fold from current levels. Given that the electric power sector represents the second largest anthropogenic use of water and given growing concerns about the nature and extent of future water scarcity driven by population growth and a changing climate, significant concern has been expressed about the electricity sectors use of water going forward. In this paper, the authors demonstrate that an often overlooked but absolutely critical issue that needs to be taken into account in discussions about the sustainability of the electric sectors water use going forward is the tremendous turn over in electricity capital stock that will occur over the course of this century; i.e., in the scenarios examined here more than 80% of global electricity production in the year 2050 is from facilities that have not yet been built. The authors show that because of the large scale changes in the global electricity system, the water withdrawal intensity of electricity production is likely to drop precipitously with the result being relatively constant water withdrawals over the course of the century even in the face of the large growth in electricity usage. The ability to cost effectively reduce the water intensity of power plants with carbon dioxide capture and storage systems in particular is key to constraining overall global water use.

  14. Climate Model Datasets on Earth System Grid II (ESG II)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Earth System Grid (ESG) is a project that combines the power and capacity of supercomputers, sophisticated analysis servers, and datasets on the scale of petabytes. The goal is to provide a seamless distributed environment that allows scientists in many locations to work with large-scale data, perform climate change modeling and simulation,and share results in innovative ways. Though ESG is more about the computing environment than the data, still there are several catalogs of data available at the web site that can be browsed or search. Most of the datasets are restricted to registered users, but several are open to any access.

  15. Modeling the global emission, transport and deposition of trace elements associated with mineral dust

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Y.; Mahowald, N.; Scanza, R. A.; Journet, E.; Desboeufs, K.; Albani, S.; Kok, J. F.; Zhuang, G.; Chen, Y.; Cohen, D. D.; et al

    2015-10-12

    Trace element deposition from desert dust has important impacts on ocean primary productivity, the quantification of which could be useful in determining the magnitude and sign of the biogeochemical feedback on radiative forcing. However, the impact of elemental deposition to remote ocean regions is not well understood and is not currently included in global climate models. In this study, emission inventories for eight elements primarily of soil origin, Mg, P, Ca, Mn, Fe, K, Al, and Si are determined based on a global mineral data set and a soil data set. The resulting elemental fractions are used to drive themore » desert dust model in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in order to simulate the elemental concentrations of atmospheric dust. Spatial variability of mineral dust elemental fractions is evident on a global scale, particularly for Ca. Simulations of global variations in the Ca / Al ratio, which typically range from around 0.1 to 5.0 in soils, are consistent with observations, suggesting that this ratio is a good signature for dust source regions. The simulated variable fractions of chemical elements are sufficiently different; estimates of deposition should include elemental variations, especially for Ca, Al and Fe. The model results have been evaluated with observations of elemental aerosol concentrations from desert regions and dust events in non-dust regions, providing insights into uncertainties in the modeling approach. The ratios between modeled and observed elemental fractions range from 0.7 to 1.6, except for Mg and Mn (3.4 and 3.5, respectively). Using the soil database improves the correspondence of the spatial heterogeneity in the modeling of several elements (Ca, Al and Fe) compared to observations. Total and soluble dust element fluxes to different ocean basins and ice sheet regions have been estimated, based on the model results. The annual inputs of soluble Mg, P, Ca, Mn, Fe and K associated with dust using the mineral data set are 0.30 Tg, 16.89 Gg, 1.32 Tg, 22.84 Gg, 0.068 Tg, and 0.15 Tg to global oceans and ice sheets.« less

  16. Global horizontal irradiance clear sky models : implementation and analysis.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stein, Joshua S.; Hansen, Clifford W.; Reno, Matthew J.

    2012-03-01

    Clear sky models estimate the terrestrial solar radiation under a cloudless sky as a function of the solar elevation angle, site altitude, aerosol concentration, water vapor, and various atmospheric conditions. This report provides an overview of a number of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) clear sky models from very simple to complex. Validation of clear-sky models requires comparison of model results to measured irradiance during clear-sky periods. To facilitate validation, we present a new algorithm for automatically identifying clear-sky periods in a time series of GHI measurements. We evaluate the performance of selected clear-sky models using measured data from 30 different sites, totaling about 300 site-years of data. We analyze the variation of these errors across time and location. In terms of error averaged over all locations and times, we found that complex models that correctly account for all the atmospheric parameters are slightly more accurate than other models, but, primarily at low elevations, comparable accuracy can be obtained from some simpler models. However, simpler models often exhibit errors that vary with time of day and season, whereas the errors for complex models vary less over time.

  17. Improved atmosphere-ocean coupled modeling in the tropics for climate

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    prediction (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Improved atmosphere-ocean coupled modeling in the tropics for climate prediction Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Improved atmosphere-ocean coupled modeling in the tropics for climate prediction We investigated the initial development of the double ITCZ in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM Version 3) in the central Pacific. Starting from a resting initial condition of the ocean in January, the model developed a warm bias of

  18. A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Technical Report: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science The objective of this award was to build a scalable and extensible Earth System Model that can be used to study climate change science. That objective has been achieved with the public release of the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). In

  19. A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science The objective of this award was to build a scalable and extensible Earth System Model that can be used to study climate change science. That objective has been achieved with the public release of the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). In particular, the

  20. The mean climate of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) in forced SST and

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    fully coupled experiments (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Journal Article: The mean climate of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) in forced SST and fully coupled experiments Citation Details In-Document Search Title: The mean climate of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) in forced SST and fully coupled experiments The Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4) was released as the atmosphere component of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) and is described. The

  1. Atmospheric Properties from the 2006 Niamey Deployment and Climate Simulation with a Geodesic Grid Coupled Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jensen, M; Johnson, K; Mather, J; Randall, D

    2008-03-01

    In 2008, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program and the Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP) have been asked to produce joint science metrics. For CCPP, the metrics will deal with a decade-long control simulation using geodesic grid-coupled climate model. For ARM, the metrics will deal with observations associated with the 2006 deployment of the ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) to Niamey, Niger. Specifically, ARM has been asked to deliver data products for Niamey that describe cloud, aerosol, and dust properties.

  2. The analysis of climate variability at local and regional scales in the global warming context

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mares, I.; Mares, C.

    1996-12-31

    The time series of the seasonal and annual temperatures and precipitation amounts from two stations with observations for more than 100 years and from one mountain station (data since 1928), in Romania have been analyzed. For the entire territory of Romania, 33 stations have also been studied using EOF components, for the 1950--1993 period. In order to find climate change-points, nonparametric tests Pettitt and Mann-Kendall have been used. Quantification of the significant change-points was made estimating the signal-to-noise ratio. Some of the change-points in the temperature and precipitation fields could be associated with the changes in the geopotential field at 500hPa, represented by EOFs and blocking index calculated for the Atlantic-European region. The comparison with other results obtained from the European stations or from the entire Northern Hemisphere shows several common points, but also some differences in the climate jumps, reflecting the local peculiarities.

  3. Evaluation of Black Carbon Estimations in Global Aerosol Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koch, D.; Schulz, M.; Kinne, Stefan; McNaughton, C. S.; Spackman, J. R.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S.; Berntsen, T.; Bond, Tami C.; Boucher, Olivier; Chin, M.; Clarke, A. D.; De Luca, N.; Dentener, F.; Diehl, T.; Dubovik, O.; Easter, Richard C.; Fahey, D. W.; Feichter, J.; Fillmore, D.; Freitag, S.; Ghan, Steven J.; Ginoux, P.; Gong, S.; Horowitz, L.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevag, A.; Klimont, Z.; Kondo, Yutaka; Krol, M.; Liu, Xiaohong; Miller, R.; Montanaro, V.; Moteki, N.; Myhre, G.; Penner, J.; Perlwitz, Ja; Pitari, G.; Reddy, S.; Sahu, L.; Sakamoto, H.; Schuster, G.; Schwarz, J. P.; Seland, O.; Stier, P.; Takegawa, Nobuyuki; Takemura, T.; Textor, C.; van Aardenne, John; Zhao, Y.

    2009-11-27

    We evaluate black carbon (BC) model predictions from the AeroCom model intercomparison project by considering the diversity among year 2000 model simulations and comparing model predictions with available measurements. These model-measurement intercomparisons include BC surface and aircraft concentrations, aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) from AERONET and OMI retrievals and BC column estimations based on AERONET. In regions other than Asia, most models are biased high compared to surface concentration measurements. However compared with (column) AAOD or BC burden retreivals, the models are generally biased low. The average ratio of model to retrieved AAOD is less than 0.7 in South American and 0.6 in African biomass burning regions; both of these regions lack surface concentration measurements. In Asia the average model to observed ratio is 0.6 for AAOD and 0.5 for BC surface concentrations. Compared with aircraft measurements over the Americas at latitudes between 0 and 50N, the average model is a factor of 10 larger than observed, and most models exceed the measured BC standard deviation in the mid to upper troposphere. At higher latitudes the average model to aircraft BC is 0.6 and underestimate the observed BC loading in the lower and middle troposphere associated with springtime Arctic haze. Low model bias for AAOD but overestimation of surface and upper atmospheric BC concentrations at lower latitudes suggests that most models are underestimating BC absorption and should improve estimates for refractive index, particle size, and optical effects of BC coating. Retrieval uncertainties and/or differences with model diagnostic treatment may also contribute to the model-measurement disparity. Largest AeroCom model diversity occurred in northern Eurasia and the remote Arctic, regions influenced by anthropogenic sources. Changing emissions, aging, removal, or optical properties within a single model generated a smaller change in model predictions than the range represented by the full set of AeroCom models. Upper tropospheric concentrations of BC mass from the aircraft measurements are suggested to provide a unique new benchmark to test scavenging and vertical dispersion of BC in global models.

  4. Climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2 - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy Nuclear

  5. Climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy Nuclear

  6. Climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    4 - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy Nuclear

  7. Climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    5 - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy Nuclear

  8. Global energy and water balance: Characteristics from finite-volume atmospheric model of the IAP/LASG (FAMIL1)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Linjiong; Bao, Qing; Liu, Yimin; Wu, Guoxiong; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Wang, Xiaocong; He, Bian; Yu, Haiyang; Li, Jiandong

    2015-03-01

    This paper documents version 1 of the Finite-volume Atmospheric Model of the IAP/LASG (FAMIL1), which has a flexible horizontal resolution up to a quarter of 1. The model, currently running on the Tianhe 1A supercomputer, is the atmospheric component of the third-generation Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land climate System model (FGOALS3) which will participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition to describing the dynamical core and physical parameterizations of FAMIL1, this paper describes the simulated characteristics of energy and water balances and compares them with observational/reanalysis data. The comparisons indicate that the model simulates well the seasonal and geographical distributions of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface, as well as the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. A major weakness in the energy balance is identified in the regions where extensive and persistent marine stratocumulus is present. Analysis of the global water balance also indicates realistic seasonal and geographical distributions with the global annual mean of evaporation minus precipitation being approximately 10?? mm d?. We also examine the connections between the global energy and water balance and discuss the possible link between the two within the context of the findings from the reanalysis data. Finally, the model biases as well as possible solutions are discussed.

  9. Global energy and water balance: Characteristics from finite-volume atmospheric model of the IAP/LASG (FAMIL1)

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhou, Linjiong; Bao, Qing; Liu, Yimin; Wu, Guoxiong; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Wang, Xiaocong; He, Bian; Yu, Haiyang; Li, Jiandong

    2015-03-01

    This paper documents version 1 of the Finite-volume Atmospheric Model of the IAP/LASG (FAMIL1), which has a flexible horizontal resolution up to a quarter of 1°. The model, currently running on the ‘‘Tianhe 1A’’ supercomputer, is the atmospheric component of the third-generation Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land climate System model (FGOALS3) which will participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition to describing the dynamical core and physical parameterizations of FAMIL1, this paper describes the simulated characteristics of energy and water balances and compares them with observational/reanalysis data. The comparisons indicate that the model simulates well the seasonalmore » and geographical distributions of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface, as well as the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. A major weakness in the energy balance is identified in the regions where extensive and persistent marine stratocumulus is present. Analysis of the global water balance also indicates realistic seasonal and geographical distributions with the global annual mean of evaporation minus precipitation being approximately 10⁻⁵ mm d⁻¹. We also examine the connections between the global energy and water balance and discuss the possible link between the two within the context of the findings from the reanalysis data. Finally, the model biases as well as possible solutions are discussed.« less

  10. Modeling Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change: A Case Study of India and Indian States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brenkert, Antoinette L.; Malone, Elizabeth L.

    2005-09-01

    The vulnerability of India and Indian states to climate change was assessed using the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator Prototype (VRIP). The model was adapted from the global/country version to account for Indian dietary practices and data availability with regard to freshwater resources. Results (scaled to world values) show nine Indian states to be moderately resilient to climate change, principally because of low sulfur emissions and a relatively large percentage of unmanaged land. Six states are more vulnerable than India as a whole, attributable largely to sensitivity to sea storm surges. Analyses of results at the state level (Orissa, and comparisons between Maharashtra and Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh) demonstrate the value of VRIP analyses used in conjunction with other socioeconomic information to address initial questions about the sources of vulnerability in particular places. The modeling framework allows analysts and stakeholders to systematically evaluate individual and sets of indicators and to indicate where the likely vulnerabilities are in the area being assessed.

  11. Advancing Models and Evaluation of Cumulus, Climate and Aerosol Interactions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gettelman, Andrew

    2015-10-27

    This project was successfully able to meet its’ goals, but faced some serious challenges due to personnel issues. Nonetheless, it was largely successful. The Project Objectives were as follows: 1. Develop a unified representation of stratifom and cumulus cloud microphysics for NCAR/DOE global community models. 2. Examine the effects of aerosols on clouds and their impact on precipitation in stratiform and cumulus clouds. We will also explore the effects of clouds and precipitation on aerosols. 3. Test these new formulations using advanced evaluation techniques and observations and release

  12. Technical Note: On the Use of Nudging for Aerosol-Climate Model Intercomparison Studies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Kai; Wan, Hui; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, Po-Lun; Rasch, Philip J.; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, U.

    2014-08-26

    Nudging is an assimilation technique widely used in the development and evaluation of climate models. Con- straining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the artificial forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the relatively strong sensitivity of homogeneous ice nucleation to aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on longwave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. This suggests that nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy, especially for studies that involve both warm and cold clouds.

  13. Global climate change mitigation and sustainable forest management--The challenge of monitoring and verification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makundi, Willy R.

    1997-12-31

    In this paper, sustainable forest management is discussed within the historical and theoretical framework of the sustainable development debate. The various criteria and indicators for sustainable forest management put forth by different institutions are critically explored. Specific types of climate change mitigation policies/projects in the forest sector are identified and examined in the light of the general criteria for sustainable forest management. Areas of compatibility and contradiction between the climate mitigation objectives and the minimum criteria for sustainable forest management are identified and discussed. Emphasis is put on the problems of monitoring and verifying carbon benefits associated with such projects given their impacts on pre-existing policy objectives on sustainable forest management. The implications of such policy interactions on assignment of carbon credits from forest projects under Joint Implementation/Activities Implemented Jointly initiatives are discussed. The paper concludes that a comprehensive monitoring and verification regime must include an impact assessment on the criteria covered under other agreements such as the Biodiversity and/or Desertification Conventions. The actual carbon credit assigned to a specific project should at least take into account the negative impacts on the criteria for sustainable forest management. The value of the impacts and/or the procedure to evaluate them need to be established by interested parties such as the Councils of the respective Conventions.

  14. Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy: Meeting US global climate change action plan commitments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anderson, A.F.

    1994-12-31

    The subject describes how the US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy will help meet the US goal of returning US greenhouse gas emissions to their 1990 levels by the year 2000. On October 19, 1993, President Clinton and Vice President Gore announced the publication of the Climate Change Action Plan. The DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy has a major role in implementing many of the initiatives contained in the Plan. The paper will outline the initiatives current programs, and demonstrate how once implemented, the strategy will help to stem US greenhouse gas emissions. The paper will also discuss how DOE in implementing it`s Climate Change Action Plan strategy, will work with the EPA to achieve a cost-effective strategy that will stem greenhouse gas emissions through public/private partnerships. Although the focus of this paper will be the connection between current programs and Clinton Administration`s year 2000 goal, it will also discuss a longer-term vision for reducing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases beyond the year 2000.

  15. Toward a new parameterization of hydraulic conductivity in climate models: Simulation of rapid groundwater fluctuations in Northern California: HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY IN CLIMATE MODELS

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Vrettas, Michail D.; Fung, Inez Y.

    2015-12-01

    Preferential flow through weathered bedrock leads to rapid rise of the water table after the first rainstorms and significant water storage (also known as ‘‘rock moisture’’) in the fractures. We present a new parameterization of hydraulic conductivity that captures the preferential flow and is easy to implement in global climate models. To mimic the naturally varying heterogeneity with depth in the subsurface, the model represents the hydraulic conductivity as a product of the effective saturation and a background hydraulic conductivity Kbkg, drawn from a lognormal distribution. The mean of the background Kbkg decreases monotonically with depth, while its variance reducesmore » with the effective saturation. Model parameters are derived by assimilating into Richards’ equation 6 years of 30 min observations of precipitation (mm) and water table depths (m), from seven wells along a steep hillslope in the Eel River watershed in Northern California. The results show that the observed rapid penetration of precipitation and the fast rise of the water table from the well locations, after the first winter rains, are well captured with the new stochastic approach in contrast to the standard van Genuchten model of hydraulic conductivity, which requires significantly higher levels of saturated soils to produce the same results. ‘‘Rock moisture,’’ the moisture between the soil mantle and the water table, comprises 30% of the moisture because of the great depth of the weathered bedrock layer and could be a potential source of moisture to sustain trees through extended dry periods. Furthermore, storage of moisture in the soil mantle is smaller, implying less surface runoff and less evaporation, with the proposed new model.« less

  16. Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Deng, Yi

    2014-11-24

    DOE-GTRC-05596 11/24/2104 Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate PI: Dr. Yi Deng (PI) School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology 404-385-1821, yi.deng@eas.gatech.edu El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Annular Modes (AMs) represent respectively the most important modes of low frequency variability in the tropical and extratropical circulations. The projection of future changes in the ENSO and AM variability, however, remains highly uncertain with the state-of-the-science climate models. This project conducted a process-resolving, quantitative evaluations of the ENSO and AM variability in the modern reanalysis observations and in climate model simulations. The goal is to identify and understand the sources of uncertainty and biases in models’ representation of ENSO and AM variability. Using a feedback analysis method originally formulated by one of the collaborative PIs, we partitioned the 3D atmospheric temperature anomalies and surface temperature anomalies associated with ENSO and AM variability into components linked to 1) radiation-related thermodynamic processes such as cloud and water vapor feedbacks, 2) local dynamical processes including convection and turbulent/diffusive energy transfer and 3) non-local dynamical processes such as the horizontal energy transport in the oceans and atmosphere. In the past 4 years, the research conducted at Georgia Tech under the support of this project has led to 15 peer-reviewed publications and 9 conference/workshop presentations. Two graduate students and one postdoctoral fellow also received research training through participating the project activities. This final technical report summarizes key scientific discoveries we made and provides also a list of all publications and conference presentations resulted from research activities at Georgia Tech. The main findings include: 1) the distinctly different roles played by atmospheric dynamical processes in establishing surface temperature response to ENSO at tropics and extratropics (i.e., atmospheric dynamics disperses energy out of tropics during ENSO warm events and modulate surface temperature at mid-, high-latitudes through controlling downward longwave radiation); 2) the representations of ENSO-related temperature response in climate models fail to converge at the process-level particularly over extratropics (i.e., models produce the right temperature responses to ENSO but with wrong reasons); 3) water vapor feedback contributes substantially to the temperature anomalies found over U.S. during different phases of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), which adds new insight to the traditional picture that cold/warm advective processes are the main drivers of local temperature responses to the NAM; 4) the overall land surface temperature biases in the latest NCAR model (CESM1) are caused by biases in surface albedo while the surface temperature biases over ocean are related to multiple factors including biases in model albedo, cloud and oceanic dynamics, and the temperature biases over different ocean basins are also induced by different process biases. These results provide a detailed guidance for process-level model turning and improvement, and thus contribute directly to the overall goal of reducing model uncertainty in projecting future changes in the Earth’s climate system, especially in the ENSO and AM variability.

  17. Measures used to tackle environmental problems related to global warming and climate change resulting from the use of coal

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoppe, J.A.

    1996-12-31

    Environmental issues continue to play a major role in strategic planning associated with the use of coal for power generation. Problems, such as Acid Rain resulting from SO{sub 2} emissions produced from the sulfur content of coal during coal combustion, have recently cornered the attention of policy makers and planners. More recently the carbon content of coal, which provides for most of the coals heating value, has been identified as the major contributor to the production of CO{sub 2} and other emissions associated with Global Warming and Climate Change. Total world carbon emissions resulting from the burning of fossil fuels were approximately 6 billion metric tons in 1990, of which 44% were from the consumption of oil, 39% from coal, and 17% from natural gas. Assuming no change in current regulations, carbon emissions are anticipated to grow by 1.5% per year, and are predicted to reach more than 8 billion tons by the year 2010. Most of this increase in carbon emissions is expected to come from developing countries in the Asian Pacific Region such as China where coal use dominates the power production industry and accounts for 71% of its total CO{sub 2} emissions. Asian Pacific coal demand is expected to double over the next 15 years accounting for a 46% increase in total primary energy demand, and China currently produces approximately 11% of the world`s global greenhouse gas emissions which is expected to grow to 15% by the year 2010.

  18. The AeroCom evaluation and intercomparison of organic aerosol in global models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Tsigaridis, K.; Daskalakis, N.; Kanakidou, M.; Adams, P. J.; Artaxo, P.; Bahadur, R.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S. E.; Bellouin, N.; Benedetti, A.; et al

    2014-10-15

    This paper evaluates the current status of global modeling of the organic aerosol (OA) in the troposphere and analyzes the differences between models as well as between models and observations. Thirty-one global chemistry transport models (CTMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) have participated in this intercomparison, in the framework of AeroCom phase II. The simulation of OA varies greatly between models in terms of the magnitude of primary emissions, secondary OA (SOA) formation, the number of OA species used (2 to 62), the complexity of OA parameterizations (gas-particle partitioning, chemical aging, multiphase chemistry, aerosol microphysics), and the OA physical, chemicalmore » and optical properties. The diversity of the global OA simulation results has increased since earlier AeroCom experiments, mainly due to the increasing complexity of the SOA parameterization in models, and the implementation of new, highly uncertain, OA sources. Diversity of over one order of magnitude exists in the modeled vertical distribution of OA concentrations that deserves a dedicated future study. Furthermore, although the OA / OC ratio depends on OA sources and atmospheric processing, and is important for model evaluation against OA and OC observations, it is resolved only by a few global models. The median global primary OA (POA) source strength is 56 Tg a–1 (range 34–144 Tg a−1) and the median SOA source strength (natural and anthropogenic) is 19 Tg a–1 (range 13–121 Tg a−1). Among the models that take into account the semi-volatile SOA nature, the median source is calculated to be 51 Tg a–1 (range 16–121 Tg a−1), much larger than the median value of the models that calculate SOA in a more simplistic way (19 Tg a–1; range 13–20 Tg a–1, with one model at 37 Tg a−1). The median atmospheric burden of OA is 1.4 Tg (24 models in the range of 0.6–2.0 Tg and 4 between 2.0 and 3.8 Tg), with a median OA lifetime of 5.4 days (range 3.8–9.6 days). In models that reported both OA and sulfate burdens, the median value of the OA/sulfate burden ratio is calculated to be 0.77; 13 models calculate a ratio lower than 1, and 9 models higher than 1. For 26 models that reported OA deposition fluxes, the median wet removal is 70 Tg a–1 (range 28–209 Tg a−1), which is on average 85% of the total OA deposition. Fine aerosol organic carbon (OC) and OA observations from continuous monitoring networks and individual field campaigns have been used for model evaluation. At urban locations, the model–observation comparison indicates missing knowledge on anthropogenic OA sources, both strength and seasonality. The combined model–measurements analysis suggests the existence of increased OA levels during summer due to biogenic SOA formation over large areas of the USA that can be of the same order of magnitude as the POA, even at urban locations, and contribute to the measured urban seasonal pattern. Global models are able to simulate the high secondary character of OA observed in the atmosphere as a result of SOA formation and POA aging, although the amount of OA present in the atmosphere remains largely underestimated, with a mean normalized bias (MNB) equal to –0.62 (–0.51) based on the comparison against OC (OA) urban data of all models at the surface, –0.15 (+0.51) when compared with remote measurements, and –0.30 for marine locations with OC data. The mean temporal correlations across all stations are low when compared with OC (OA) measurements: 0.47 (0.52) for urban stations, 0.39 (0.37) for remote stations, and 0.25 for marine stations with OC data. The combination of high (negative) MNB and higher correlation at urban stations when compared with the low MNB and lower correlation at remote sites suggests that knowledge about the processes that govern aerosol processing, transport and removal, on top of their sources, is important at the remote stations. There is no clear change in model skill with increasing model complexity with regard to OC or OA mass concentration. As a result, the complexity is needed in models in order to distinguish between anthropogenic and natural OA as needed for climate mitigation, and to calculate the impact of OA on climate accurately.« less

  19. Global Trade and Environmental Model (GTEM) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Australia Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry (ABARES) Sector: Climate, Energy Topics: Analysis Tools ComplexityEase of Use: Advanced Website: www.daff.gov.au...

  20. LLNL Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    and relative to climate observations remain significant and poorly understood. The nature and causes of these disagreements must be accounted for in a systematic fashion in...

  1. New climate model predicts likelihood of Greenland ice melt,...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of accumulated carbon emissions predicts the likelihood of crossing several dangerous climate change thresholds. November 20, 2015 Greenland ice loss. Greenland ice loss....

  2. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: CONTINUOUS DYNAMIC GRID ADAPTATION IN A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODEL: APPLICATION AND REFINEMENT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prusa, Joseph

    2012-05-08

    This project had goals of advancing the performance capabilities of the numerical general circulation model EULAG and using it to produce a fully operational atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) that can employ either static or dynamic grid stretching for targeted phenomena. The resulting AGCM combined EULAGâ??s advanced dynamics core with the â??physicsâ? of the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). Effort discussed below shows how we improved model performance and tested both EULAG and the coupled CAM-EULAG in several ways to demonstrate the grid stretching and ability to simulate very well a wide range of scales, that is, multi-scale capability. We leveraged our effort through interaction with an international EULAG community that has collectively developed new features and applications of EULAG, which we exploited for our own work summarized here. Overall, the work contributed to over 40 peer- reviewed publications and over 70 conference/workshop/seminar presentations, many of them invited.

  3. Evaluation of global horizontal irradiance to plane-of-array irradiance models at locations across the United States

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Lave, Matthew; Hayes, William; Pohl, Andrew; Hansen, Clifford W.

    2015-02-02

    We report an evaluation of the accuracy of combinations of models that estimate plane-of-array (POA) irradiance from measured global horizontal irradiance (GHI). This estimation involves two steps: 1) decomposition of GHI into direct and diffuse horizontal components and 2) transposition of direct and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) to POA irradiance. Measured GHI and coincident measured POA irradiance from a variety of climates within the United States were used to evaluate combinations of decomposition and transposition models. A few locations also had DHI measurements, allowing for decoupled analysis of either the decomposition or the transposition models alone. Results suggest that decompositionmore » models had mean bias differences (modeled versus measured) that vary with climate. Transposition model mean bias differences depended more on the model than the location. Lastly, when only GHI measurements were available and combinations of decomposition and transposition models were considered, the smallest mean bias differences were typically found for combinations which included the Hay/Davies transposition model.« less

  4. Atmospheric Properties from the 2006 Niamey Deployment and Climate Simulation with a Geodesic Grid Coupled Climate Model Third Quarter 2008

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    JH Mather; DA Randall; CJ Flynn

    2008-06-30

    In 2008, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program and the Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP) have been asked to produce joint science metrics. For CCPP, the metrics will deal with a decade-long control simulation using geodesic grid-coupled climate model. For ARM, the metrics will deal with observations associated with the 2006 deployment of the ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) to Niamey, Niger. Specifically, ARM has been asked to deliver data products for Niamey that describe cloud, aerosol, and dust properties. This report describes the aerosol optical depth (AOD) product.

  5. climate

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    p>

    The research appears in the Dec. 10 edition of the journal Nature.

    models-overestimat...

  6. Improvement of snowpack simulations in a regional climate model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jin, J.; Miller, N.L.

    2011-01-10

    To improve simulations of regional-scale snow processes and related cold-season hydroclimate, the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3), developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), was coupled with the Pennsylvania State University/NCAR fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). CLM3 physically describes the mass and heat transfer within the snowpack using five snow layers that include liquid water and solid ice. The coupled MM5CLM3 model performance was evaluated for the snowmelt season in the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwestern United States using gridded temperature and precipitation observations, along with station observations. The results from MM5CLM3 show a significant improvement in the SWE simulation, which has been underestimated in the original version of MM5 coupled with the Noah land-surface model. One important cause for the underestimated SWE in Noah is its unrealistic land-surface structure configuration where vegetation, snow and the topsoil layer are blended when snow is present. This study demonstrates the importance of the sheltering effects of the forest canopy on snow surface energy budgets, which is included in CLM3. Such effects are further seen in the simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation in regional weather and climate models such as MM5. In addition, the snow-season surface albedo overestimated by MM5Noah is now more accurately predicted by MM5CLM3 using a more realistic albedo algorithm that intensifies the solar radiation absorption on the land surface, reducing the strong near-surface cold bias in MM5Noah. The cold bias is further alleviated due to a slower snowmelt rate in MM5CLM3 during the early snowmelt stage, which is closer to observations than the comparable components of MM5Noah. In addition, the over-predicted precipitation in the Pacific Northwest as shown in MM5Noah is significantly decreased in MM5 CLM3 due to the lower evaporation resulting from the longer snow duration.

  7. FY08 LDRD Final Report Regional Climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bader, D C; Chin, H; Caldwell, P M

    2009-05-19

    An integrated, multi-model capability for regional climate change simulation is needed to perform original analyses to understand and prepare for the impacts of climate change on the time and space scales that are critical to California's future environmental quality and economic prosperity. Our intent was to develop a very high resolution regional simulation capability to address consequences of climate change in California to complement the global modeling capability that is supported by DOE at LLNL and other institutions to inform national and international energy policies. The California state government, through the California Energy Commission (CEC), institutionalized the State's climate change assessment process through its biennial climate change reports. The bases for these reports, however, are global climate change simulations for future scenarios designed to inform international policy negotiations, and are primarily focused on the global to continental scale impacts of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. These simulations do not meet the needs of California public and private officials who will make major decisions in the next decade that require an understanding of climate change in California for the next thirty to fifty years and its effects on energy use, water utilization, air quality, agriculture and natural ecosystems. With the additional development of regional dynamical climate modeling capability, LLNL will be able to design and execute global simulations specifically for scenarios important to the state, then use those results to drive regional simulations of the impacts of the simulated climate change for regions as small as individual cities or watersheds. Through this project, we systematically studied the strengths and weaknesses of downscaling global model results with a regional mesoscale model to guide others, particularly university researchers, who are using the technique based on models with less complete parameterizations or coarser spatial resolution. Further, LLNL has now built a capability in state-of-the-science mesoscale climate modeling that complements that which it has in global climate simulation, providing potential sponsors with an end-to-end simulation and analysis program.

  8. he Impact of Primary Marine Aerosol on Atmospheric Chemistry, Radiation and Climate: A CCSM Model Development Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Keene, William C.; Long, Michael S.

    2013-05-20

    This project examined the potential large-scale influence of marine aerosol cycling on atmospheric chemistry, physics and radiative transfer. Measurements indicate that the size-dependent generation of marine aerosols by wind waves at the ocean surface and the subsequent production and cycling of halogen-radicals are important but poorly constrained processes that influence climate regionally and globally. A reliable capacity to examine the role of marine aerosol in the global-scale atmospheric system requires that the important size-resolved chemical processes be treated explicitly. But the treatment of multiphase chemistry across the breadth of chemical scenarios encountered throughout the atmosphere is sensitive to the initial conditions and the precision of the solution method. This study examined this sensitivity, constrained it using high-resolution laboratory and field measurements, and deployed it in a coupled chemical-microphysical 3-D atmosphere model. First, laboratory measurements of fresh, unreacted marine aerosol were used to formulate a sea-state based marine aerosol source parameterization that captured the initial organic, inorganic, and physical conditions of the aerosol population. Second, a multiphase chemical mechanism, solved using the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry??s MECCA (Module Efficiently Calculating the Chemistry of the Atmosphere) system, was benchmarked across a broad set of observed chemical and physical conditions in the marine atmosphere. Using these results, the mechanism was systematically reduced to maximize computational speed. Finally, the mechanism was coupled to the 3-mode modal aerosol version of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM v3.6.33). Decadal-scale simulations with CAM v.3.6.33, were run both with and without reactive-halogen chemistry and with and without explicit treatment of particulate organic carbon in the marine aerosol source function. Simulated results were interpreted (1) to evaluate influences of marine aerosol production on the microphysical properties of aerosol populations and clouds over the ocean and the corresponding direct and indirect effects on radiative transfer; (2) atmospheric burdens of reactive halogen species and their impacts on O3, NOx, OH, DMS, and particulate non-sea-salt SO42-; and (3) the global production and influences of marine-derived particulate organic carbon. The model reproduced major characteristics of the marine aerosol system and demonstrated the potential sensitivity of global, decadal-scale climate metrics to multiphase marine-derived components of Earth??s troposphere. Due to the combined computational burden of the coupled system, the currently available computational resources were the limiting factor preventing the adequate statistical analysis of the overall impact that multiphase chemistry might have on climate-scale radiative transfer and climate.

  9. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  10. Modeling the Global Trade and Environmental Impacts of Biofuel...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Trade and Environmental Impacts of Biofuel Policies AgencyCompany Organization: International Food Policy Research Institute Sector: Energy Focus Area: Biomass Topics:...

  11. World's largest climate research site pilots integrated modeling...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    at the Southern Great Plains site. Image courtesy of the U.S. Department of Energy ARM Climate Research Facility; click to view larger. A graphic illustrating new data collection...

  12. Scientific Final Report: COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: CONTINUOUS DYNAMIC GRID ADAPTATION IN A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODEL: APPLICATION AND REFINEMENT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    William J. Gutowski; Joseph M. Prusa, Piotr K. Smolarkiewicz

    2012-04-09

    This project had goals of advancing the performance capabilities of the numerical general circulation model EULAG and using it to produce a fully operational atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) that can employ either static or dynamic grid stretching for targeted phenomena. The resulting AGCM combined EULAG's advanced dynamics core with the 'physics' of the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). Effort discussed below shows how we improved model performance and tested both EULAG and the coupled CAM-EULAG in several ways to demonstrate the grid stretching and ability to simulate very well a wide range of scales, that is, multi-scale capability. We leveraged our effort through interaction with an international EULAG community that has collectively developed new features and applications of EULAG, which we exploited for our own work summarized here. Overall, the work contributed to over 40 peer-reviewed publications and over 70 conference/workshop/seminar presentations, many of them invited.

  13. Climate Education Update_Jan07.indd

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the two poles. Global climate models have diffculty reproducing the current The sun sets over the Arctic Ocean off the coast of Barrow, Alaska. (continued on page 2) January 2007 ...

  14. Earth System Modeling (ESM) Program | U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Earth System Modeling (ESM) Program Biological and Environmental Research (BER) BER Home About Research Biological Systems Science Division (BSSD) Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD) ARM Climate Research Facility Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program Data Management Earth System Modeling (ESM) Program William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) Integrated Assessment of Global Climate Change Regional & Global Climate Modeling (RGCM) Program

  15. A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment designed for climate and chemistry models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Tilmes, S.; Mills, Mike; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Robock, Alan; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Lamarque, J. F.; Pitari, G.; English, J. M.

    2015-01-15

    A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment "G4 specified stratospheric aerosols" (short name: G4SSA) is proposed to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on atmosphere, chemistry, dynamics, climate, and the environment. In contrast to the earlier G4 GeoMIP experiment, which requires an emission of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) into the model, a prescribed aerosol forcing file is provided to the community, to be consistently applied to future model experiments between 2020 and 2100. This stratospheric aerosol distribution, with a total burden of about 2 Tg S has been derived using the ECHAM5-HAM microphysical model, based on a continuous annualmore » tropical emission of 8 Tg SO₂ yr⁻¹. A ramp-up of geoengineering in 2020 and a ramp-down in 2070 over a period of 2 years are included in the distribution, while a background aerosol burden should be used for the last 3 decades of the experiment. The performance of this experiment using climate and chemistry models in a multi-model comparison framework will allow us to better understand the impact of geoengineering and its abrupt termination after 50 years in a changing environment. The zonal and monthly mean stratospheric aerosol input data set is available at https://www2.acd.ucar.edu/gcm/geomip-g4-specified-stratospheric-aerosol-data-set.« less

  16. Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) Interdisciplinary Science Workshop: Decadal Climate Prediction; Aspen, CO; June 22-28, 2008

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Katzenberger, John

    2010-03-12

    Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10?30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes.

  17. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lettenmaier, Dennis P

    2013-04-08

    Primary activities are reported in these areas: climate system component studies via one-way coupling experiments; development of the Regional Arctic Climate System Model (RACM); and physical feedback studies focusing on changes in Arctic sea ice using the fully coupled model.

  18. Global warming. (Latest citations from the NTIS database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-02-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning policies and general studies on global warming. Topics include the greenhouse effect, global climatic models, and climatic effects from combustion of fossil fuels. (Contains a minimum of 173 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  19. Enduse Global Emissions Mitigation Scenarios (EGEMS): A New Generation of Energy Efficiency Policy Planning Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNeil, Michael A.; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; McMahon, James E.

    2009-05-29

    This paper presents efforts to date and prospective goals towards development of a modelling and analysis framework which is comprehensive enough to address the global climate crisis, and detailed enough to provide policymakers with concrete targets and achievable outcomes. In terms of energy efficiency policy, this requires coverage of the entire world, with emphasis on countries and regions with large and/or rapidly growing energy-related emissions, and analysis at the 'technology' level-building end use, transport mode or industrial process. These elements have not been fully addressed by existing modelling efforts, which usually take either a top-down approach, or concentrate on a few fully industrialized countries where energy demand is well-understood. Inclusion of details such as appliance ownership rates, use patterns and efficiency levels throughout the world allows for a deeper understanding of the demand for energy today and, more importantly, over the coming decades. This is a necessary next step for energy analysts and policy makers in assessment of mitigation potentials. The modelling system developed at LBNL over the past 3 years takes advantage of experience in end use demand and in forecasting markets for energy-consuming equipment, in combination with known technology-based efficiency opportunities and policy types. A particular emphasis has been placed on modelling energy growth in developing countries. Experiences to date include analyses covering individual countries (China and India), end uses (refrigerators and air conditioners) and policy types (standards and labelling). Each of these studies required a particular effort in data collection and model refinement--they share, however, a consistent approach and framework which allows comparison, and forms the foundation of a comprehensive analysis system leading to a roadmap to address the greenhouse gas mitigation targetslikely to be set in the coming years.

  20. The Program for climate Model diagnosis and Intercomparison: 20-th anniversary Symposium

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Potter, Gerald L; Bader, David C; Riches, Michael; Bamzai, Anjuli; Joseph, Renu

    2011-01-05

    Twenty years ago, W. Lawrence (Larry) Gates approached the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Research (now the Office of Science) with a plan to coordinate the comparison and documentation of climate model differences. This effort would help improve our understanding of climate change through a systematic approach to model intercomparison. Early attempts at comparing results showed a surprisingly large range in control climate from such parameters as cloud cover, precipitation, and even atmospheric temperature. The DOE agreed to fund the effort at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), in part because of the existing computing environment and because of a preexisting atmospheric science group that contained a wide variety of expertise. The project was named the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), and it has changed the international landscape of climate modeling over the past 20 years. In spring 2009 the DOE hosted a 1-day symposium to celebrate the twentieth anniversary of PCMDI and to honor its founder, Larry Gates. Through their personal experiences, the morning presenters painted an image of climate science in the 1970s and 1980s, that generated early support from the international community for model intercomparison, thereby bringing PCMDI into existence. Four talks covered Gates???¢????????s early contributions to climate research at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), the RAND Corporation, and Oregon State University through the founding of PCMDI to coordinate the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The speakers were, in order of presentation, Warren Washington [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)], Kelly Redmond (Western Regional Climate Center), George Boer (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis), and Lennart Bengtsson [University of Reading, former director of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)]. The afternoon session emphasized the scientific ideas that are the basis of PCMDI???¢????????s success, summarizing their evolution and impact. Four speakers followed the various PCMDI-supported climate model intercomparison projects, beginning with early work on cloud representations in models, presented by Robert D. Cess (Distinguished Professor Emeritus, Stony Brook University), and then the latest Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Projects (CFMIPs) led by Sandrine Bony (Laboratoire de M???????©t???????©orologie Dynamique). Benjamin Santer (LLNL) presented a review of the climate change detection and attribution (D & A) work pioneered at PCMDI, and Gerald A. Meehl (NCAR) ended the day with a look toward the future of climate change research.

  1. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gutowski, William J.

    2013-02-07

    The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

  2. LONG-TERM GLOBAL WATER USE PROJECTIONS USING SIX SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING FRAMEWORK

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.; Moss, Richard H.; Kim, Son H.

    2014-01-19

    In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demandsboth gross withdrawals and net consumptive useare assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. We assess future water demands representing six socioeconomic scenarios, with no constraints imposed by future water supplies. The scenarios observe increases in global water withdrawals from 3,578 km3 year-1 in 2005 to 5,987 8,374 km3 year-1 in 2050, and to 4,719 12,290 km3 year-1 in 2095. Comparing the projected total regional water withdrawals to the historical supply of renewable freshwater, the Middle East exhibits the highest levels of water scarcity throughout the century, followed by India; water scarcity increases over time in both of these regions. In contrast, water scarcity improves in some regions with large base-year electric sector withdrawals, such as the USA and Canada, due to capital stock turnover and the almost complete phase-out of once-through flow cooling systems. The scenarios indicate that: 1) water is likely a limiting factor in climate change mitigation policies, 2) many regions can be expected to increase reliance on non-renewable groundwater, water reuse, and desalinated water, but they also highlight an important role for development and deployment of water conservation technologies and practices.

  3. A Better Way to ID Extreme Weather Events in Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    develop ever-more sophisticated computer models to predict the effects of climate change, one of the things they'll look for are changes in the frequency of extreme weather...

  4. A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Prein, Andreas; Langhans, Wolfgang; Fosser, Giorgia; Ferrone, Andrew; Ban, Nikolina; Goergen, Klaus; Keller, Michael; Tolle, Merja; Gutjahr, Oliver; Feser, Frauke; et al

    2015-05-27

    Regional climate modeling using convection permitting models (CPMs) emerges as a promising framework to provide more reliable climate information on regional to local scales compared to traditionally used large-scale models (LSMs). CPMs do not use convection parameterization schemes, known as a major source of errors and uncertainties, and have more accurate surface and orography elds. The drawback of CPMs is their high demand on computational resources. For this reason, the CPM climate simulations only appeared a decade ago. In this study we aim to provide a common basis for CPM climate simulations by giving a holistic review of the topic.more » The most important components in CPM, such as physical parameterizations and dynamical formulations are discussed, and an outlook on required future developments and computer architectures that would support the application of CPMs is given. Most importantly, this review presents the consolidated outcome of studies that addressed the added value of CPM climate simulations compared to LSMs. Most improvements are found for processes related to deep convection (e.g., precipitation during summer), for mountainous regions, and for the soil-vegetation-atmosphere interactions. The climate change signals of CPM simulations reveal increases in short and extreme rainfall events and an increased ratio of liquid precipitation at the surface (a decrease of hail) potentially leading to more frequent ash oods. Concluding, CPMs are a very promising tool for future climate research. However, coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to assess their full potential and support their development.« less

  5. A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prein, Andreas; Langhans, Wolfgang; Fosser, Giorgia; Ban, Nikolina; Goergen, Klaus; Keller, Michael; Tolle, Merja; Gutjahr, Oliver; Feser, Frauke; Brisson, Erwan; Kollet, Stefan; Schmidli, Juerg; van Lipzig, Nicole; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-05-27

    Regional climate modeling using convection permitting models (CPMs) emerges as a promising framework to provide more reliable climate information on regional to local scales compared to traditionally used large-scale models (LSMs). CPMs do not use convection parameterization schemes, known as a major source of errors and uncertainties, and have more accurate surface and orography elds. The drawback of CPMs is their high demand on computational resources. For this reason, the CPM climate simulations only appeared a decade ago. In this study we aim to provide a common basis for CPM climate simulations by giving a holistic review of the topic. The most important components in CPM, such as physical parameterizations and dynamical formulations are discussed, and an outlook on required future developments and computer architectures that would support the application of CPMs is given. Most importantly, this review presents the consolidated outcome of studies that addressed the added value of CPM climate simulations compared to LSMs. Most improvements are found for processes related to deep convection (e.g., precipitation during summer), for mountainous regions, and for the soil-vegetation-atmosphere interactions. The climate change signals of CPM simulations reveal increases in short and extreme rainfall events and an increased ratio of liquid precipitation at the surface (a decrease of hail) potentially leading to more frequent ash oods. Concluding, CPMs are a very promising tool for future climate research. However, coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to assess their full potential and support their development.

  6. Climate Model Intercomparisons: Preparing for the Next Phase

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meehl, J.; Moss, Richard H.; Taylor, K. E.; Eyring, Veronika; Stouffer, R. J.; Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, B.

    2014-03-04

    The article reports on the Aspen Global Change Institute workshopthat provided an input on scenarios. Our group is continuing to work on a number of aspects of scenarios for the next research cycle.

  7. A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Technical Report: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science × You are accessing a document from the Department of Energy's (DOE) SciTech Connect. This site is a product of DOE's Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) and is provided as a public service. Visit OSTI to utilize additional information

  8. User-Oriented Modeling Tools for Advanced Hybrid and Climate-Appropriate

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Rooftop Air Conditioners | Department of Energy User-Oriented Modeling Tools for Advanced Hybrid and Climate-Appropriate Rooftop Air Conditioners User-Oriented Modeling Tools for Advanced Hybrid and Climate-Appropriate Rooftop Air Conditioners Lead Performer: University of California, Davis - Davis, CA DOE Total Funding: $200,000 Cost Share: $339,515 Project Term: 2015 - 2017 Funding Opportunity: Building University Innovators and Leaders Development (BUILD) Funding Opportunity Announcement

  9. Multi-model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation of Historical and Projected Future Changes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Dentener, Frank; McConnell, J.R.; Ro, C-U; Shaw, Mark; Vet, Robert; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Dalsoren, S.; Doherty, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, Steven J.; Josse, B.; Lee, Y. H.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, David; Shindell, Drew; Skeie, R. B.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S.; Zeng, G.; Curran, M.; Dahl-Jensen, D.; Das, S.; Fritzsche, D.; Nolan, M.

    2013-08-20

    We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States, but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching >1300 mgN/m2/yr averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, ~30-50% larger than the values in any region currently (2000). Despite known issues, the new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

  10. Modeling Climate-Water Impacts on Electricity Sector Capacity Expansion: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.

    2014-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to exacerbate water availability concerns for thermal power plant cooling, which is responsible for 41% of U.S. water withdrawals. This analysis describes an initial link between climate, water, and electricity systems using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity system capacity expansion model. Average surface water projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) data are applied to surface water rights available to new generating capacity in ReEDS, and electric sector growth is compared with and without climate-influenced water rights. The mean climate projection has only a small impact on national or regional capacity growth and water use because most regions have sufficient unappropriated or previously retired water rights to offset climate impacts. Climate impacts are notable in southwestern states that purchase fewer water rights and obtain a greater share from wastewater and other higher-cost water resources. The electric sector climate impacts demonstrated herein establish a methodology to be later exercised with more extreme climate scenarios and a more rigorous representation of legal and physical water availability.

  11. Atmospheric Properties from the 2006 Niamey Deployment and Climate Simulation with a Geodesic Grid Coupled Climate Model - First Quarter 2008

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    JH Mather; D Randall

    2007-12-30

    In 2008, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program and the Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP) have been asked to produce joint science metrics. For CCPP, the metrics will deal with a decade-long control simulation using geodesic grid-coupled climate model. For ARM, the metrics will deal with observations associated with the 2006 deployment of the ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) to Niamey, Niger. Specifically, ARM has been asked to deliver data products for Niamey that describe cloud, aerosol, and dust properties. The first quarter milestone is initial formulation of the algorithm to produce and make available, new continuous time series of retrieved cloud , aerosol and dust properties, based on results from the ARM Mobile Facility deployment in Niger, Africa. The first quarter milestone has been achieved.

  12. Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Done, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka

    2012-06-01

    Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are presented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices. Capsule: "Combining dynamical modeling of high-impact weather using traditional regional climate models with statistical techniques allows for comprehensive sampling of the full distribution, uncertainty estimation, direct assessment of impacts, and increased confidence in future changes."

  13. Identification and preliminary characterization of global water resource issues which may be affected by CO/sub 2/-induced climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Callaway, J.M.; Cohen, M.L.; Currie, J.W.

    1984-04-01

    The objectives were to: (1) identify, characterize, and define existing or projected regional and global water resource management issues which may be affected by CO/sub 2/-induced climate changes; and (2) develop research priorities for acquiring additional information about the potential effects of a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change on the availability and allocation of freshwater supplies. The research was broken into four work elements: (1) identification of water resource management issues on a global and regional basis; (2) identification of a subset of generic CO/sub 2/-related water resource management issues believed to have the highest probability of being affected, beneficially or adversely, by a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change; (3) selection of specific sites for examining the potential effect of a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change on these issues; and (4) conducting detailed case studies at these sites, the results from which will be used to identify future research and data needs in the area of water resources. This report summarizes the research related to the first three work elements. 6 figures, 9 tables.

  14. Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, A.; Weaver, C. P.; Morefield, Philip; Huang, Jin; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Adams, P. J.; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, J.; Mahoney, Hardee

    2012-11-01

    Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices.

  15. Global warming, global research, and global governing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Preining, O.

    1997-12-31

    The anticipated dangers of Global Warming can be mitigated by reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, especially CO{sub 2}. To reach acceptable, constant levels within the next couple of centuries it might be necessary to accept stabilization levels higher than present ones, The annual CO{sub 2} emissions must be reduced far below today`s values. This is a very important result of the models discussed in the 1995 IPCC report. However, any even very modest scenario for the future must take into account a substantial increase in the world population which might double during the 21st century, There is a considerable emission reduction potential of the industrialized world due to efficiency increase, However, the demand for energy services by the growing world population will, inspite of the availability of alternative energy resources, possibly lead to a net increase in fossil fuel consumption. If the climate models are right, and the science community believes they are, we will experience a global warming of the order of a couple of degrees over the next century; we have to live with it. To be prepared for the future it is essential for us to use new research techniques embracing not only the familiar fields of hard sciences but also social, educational, ethical and economic aspects, We must find a way to build up the essential intellectual capacities needed to deal with these kinds of general problems within all nations and all societies. But this is not Although, we also have to find the necessary dynamical and highly flexible structures for a global governing using tools such as the environmental regime. The first step was the Framework Convention On Climate Change, UN 1992; for resolution of questions regarding implementations the Conference of the Parties was established.

  16. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: CONTINUOUS DYNAMIC GRID ADAPTATION IN A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODEL: APPLICATION AND REFINEMENT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gutowski, William J.; Prusa, Joseph M.; Smolarkiewicz, Piotr K.

    2012-05-08

    This project had goals of advancing the performance capabilities of the numerical general circulation model EULAG and using it to produce a fully operational atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) that can employ either static or dynamic grid stretching for targeted phenomena. The resulting AGCM combined EULAG's advanced dynamics core with the "physics" of the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). Effort discussed below shows how we improved model performance and tested both EULAG and the coupled CAM-EULAG in several ways to demonstrate the grid stretching and ability to simulate very well a wide range of scales, that is, multi-scale capability. We leveraged our effort through interaction with an international EULAG community that has collectively developed new features and applications of EULAG, which we exploited for our own work summarized here. Overall, the work contributed to over 40 peer-reviewed publications and over 70 conference/workshop/seminar presentations, many of them invited. 3a. EULAG Advances EULAG is a non-hydrostatic, parallel computational model for all-scale geophysical flows. EULAG's name derives from its two computational options: EULerian (flux form) or semi-LAGrangian (advective form). The model combines nonoscillatory forward-in-time (NFT) numerical algorithms with a robust elliptic Krylov solver. A signature feature of EULAG is that it is formulated in generalized time-dependent curvilinear coordinates. In particular, this enables grid adaptivity. In total, these features give EULAG novel advantages over many existing dynamical cores. For EULAG itself, numerical advances included refining boundary conditions and filters for optimizing model performance in polar regions. We also added flexibility to the model's underlying formulation, allowing it to work with the pseudo-compressible equation set of Durran in addition to EULAG's standard anelastic formulation. Work in collaboration with others also extended the demonstrated range of validity of soundproof models, showing that they are more broadly applicable than some had previously thought. Substantial testing of EULAG included application and extension of the Jablonowski-Williamson baroclinic wave test - an archetype of planetary weather - and further analysis of multi-scale interactions arising from collapse of temperature fronts in both the baroclinic wave test and simulations of the Held-Suarez idealized climate. These analyses revealed properties of atmospheric gravity waves not seen in previous work and further demonstrated the ability of EULAG to simulate realistic behavior over several orders of magnitude of length scales. Additional collaborative work enhanced capability for modeling atmospheric flows with adaptive moving meshes and demonstrated the ability of EULAG to move into petascale computing. 3b. CAM-EULAG Advances We have developed CAM-EULAG in collaboration with former project postdoc, now University of Cape Town Assistant Professor, Babatunde Abiodun. Initial study documented good model performance in aqua-planet simulations. In particular, we showed that the grid adaptivity (stretching) implemented in CAM-EULAG allows higher resolution in selected regions without causing anomalous behavior such as spurious wave reflection. We then used the stretched-grid version to analyze simulated extreme precipitation events in West Africa, comparing the precipitation and event environment with observed behavior. The model simulates fairly well the spatial scale and the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the extreme events, although its extreme precipitation intensity is weaker than observed. In addition, both observations and the simulations show possible forcing of extreme events by African easterly waves. 3c. Other Contributions Through our collaborations, we have made contributions to a wide range of outcomes. For research focused on terrestrial behavior, these have included (1) upwind schemes for gas dynamics, (2) a nonlinear perspective on the dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, (3) numerical realism of thermal co

  17. Global Ocean Circulation Modeling with an Isopycnic Coordinate Model. Final Report for May 1, 1998 - April 30, 2002

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bleck, R.

    2004-05-19

    The overall aim of this project was to continue development of a global version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM) with the intent of turning it into a full-fledged oceanic component of an earth system model.

  18. Perspective: The Climate-Population-Infrastructure Modeling and Simulation Fertile Area for New Research

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Allen, Melissa R; Fernandez, Steven J; Walker, Kimberly A; Fu, Joshua S

    2014-01-01

    Managing the risks posed by climate change and extreme weather to energy production and delivery is a challenge to communities worldwide. As climate conditions change, populations will shift, and demand will re-locate; and networked infrastructures will evolve to accommodate new load centers, and, hopefully, minimize vulnerability to natural disaster. Climate effects such as sea level rise, increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters, force populations to move locations. Displaced population creates new demand for built infrastructure that in turn generates new economic activity that attracts new workers and associated households to the new locations. Infrastructures and their interdependencies will change in reaction to climate drivers as the networks expand into new population areas and as portions of the networks are abandoned as people leave. Thus, infrastructures will evolve to accommodate new load centers while some parts of the network are underused, and these changes will create emerging vulnerabilities. Forecasting the location of these vulnerabilities by combining climate predictions and agent based population movement models shows promise for defining these future population distributions and changes in coastal infrastructure configurations. By combining climate and weather data, engineering algorithms and social theory it has been only recently possible to examine electricity demand response to increased climactic temperatures, population relocation in response to extreme cyclonic events, consequent net population changes and new regional patterns in electricity demand. These emerging results suggest a research agenda of coupling these disparate modelling approaches to understand the implications of climate change for protecting the nation s critical infrastructure.

  19. Climate Leadership Conference

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The annual Climate Leadership Conference convenes a global audience of climate, energy, and sustainability professionals to address climate change through policy, innovation, and business solutions. Now in its fifth year, the 2016 event will host the first U.S. climate conference post-Paris to further accelerate climate solutions and a low-carbon economy.

  20. Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: Initial experiments using GCAM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Wise, Marshall A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2013-04-01

    Historically climate impacts research and climate mitigation research have been two separate and independent domains of inquiry. Climate mitigation research has investigated greenhouse gas emissions assuming that climate is unchanging. At the same time climate mitigation research has investigated the implications of climate change on the assumption that climate mitigation will proceed without affecting the degree of climate impacts or the ability of human and natural systems to adapt. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) has largely been employed to study climate mitigation. Here we explore the development of capabilities to assess climate change impacts and adaptation within the GCAM model. These capabilities are being developed so as to be able to simultaneously reconcile the joint implications of climate change mitigation, impacts and adaptive potential. This is an important step forward in that it enables direct comparison between climate mitigation activities and climate impacts and the opportunity to understand interactions between the two.

  1. Dissemination of Climate Model Output to the Public and Commercial Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robert Stockwell, PhD

    2010-09-23

    Climate is defined by the Glossary of Meteorology as the mean of atmospheric variables over a period of time ranging from as short as a few months to multiple years and longer. Although the term climate is often used to refer to long-term weather statistics, the broader definition of climate is the time evolution of a system consisting of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. Physical, chemical, and biological processes are involved in interactions among the components of the climate system. Vegetation, soil moisture, and glaciers are part of the climate system in addition to the usually considered temperature and precipitation (Pielke, 2008). Climate change refers to any systematic change in the long-term statistics of climate elements (such as temperature, pressure, or winds) sustained over several decades or longer. Climate change can be initiated by external forces, such as cyclical variations in the Earth's solar orbit that are thought to have caused glacial and interglacial periods within the last 2 million years (Milankovitch, 1941). However, a linear response to astronomical forcing does not explain many other observed glacial and interglacial cycles (Petit et al., 1999). It is now understood that climate is influenced by the interaction of solar radiation with atmospheric greenhouse gasses (e.g., carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane, nitrous oxide, etc.), aerosols (airborne particles), and Earth's surface. A significant aspect of climate are the interannual cycles, such as the El Nino La Nina cycle which profoundly affects the weather in North America but is outside the scope of weather forecasts. Some of the most significant advances in understanding climate change have evolved from the recognition of the influence of ocean circulations upon the atmosphere (IPCC, 2007). Human activity can affect the climate system through increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases, air pollution, increasing concentrations of aerosol, and land alteration. A particular concern is that atmospheric levels of CO{sub 2} may be rising faster than at any time in Earth's history, except possibly following rare events like impacts from large extraterrestrial objects (AMS, 2007). Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations have increased since the mid-1700s through fossil fuel burning and changes in land use, with more than 80% of this increase occurring since 1900. The increased levels of CO{sub 2} will remain in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. The complexity of the climate system makes it difficult to predict specific aspects of human-induced climate change, such as exactly how and where changes will occur, and their magnitude. The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) was established by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations in 1988. The IPCC was tasked with assessing the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information needed to understand the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC concluded in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increased in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC, 2007).

  2. Subgrid-Scale Mixing in Climate Models: A Novel Look at Diffusion, Accuracy, Stability and Climate Sensitivity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rood, Richard B; Jablonowski, Christiane

    2012-10-31

    This project focuses on evaluating the role of subgrid-scale dissipation in the dynamical core of atmospheric models. All dynamical cores of atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) employ some form of subgrid-scale dissipation, either explicitly specified or inherent in the chosen numerical schemes. The dissipation processes are needed to keep the simulation stable or to satisfy important physical properties, and the hope is that they capture and mimic in some poorly understood way the true processes at the unresolved subgrid scale. There is no physical basis that such dissipation can accomplish this. We originally posed a set of numerical test cases chosen or designed to isolate the role of the filters and fixers on both the dynamical variables (pressure, temperature, velocity, vorticity) and trace constituents. From these test case results, we synthesize the information to determine the impact of the subgrid-scale assumptions on weather and climate models.

  3. A Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for North America

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mearns, L. O.; Gutowski, William; Jones, Richard; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; McGinnis, Seth; Nunes, A.; Qian, Yun

    2009-09-08

    There are two main uncertainties in determining future climate: the trajectories of future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and the response of the global climate system to any given set of future emissions [Meehl et al., 2007]. These uncertainties normally are elucidated via application of global climate models, which provide information at relatively coarse spatial resolutions. Greater interest in, and concern about, the details of climate change at regional scales has provided the motivation for the application of regional climate models, which introduces additional uncertainty [Christensen et al., 2007a]. These uncertainties in fi ne- scale regional climate responses, in contrast to uncertainties of coarser spatial resolution global models in which regional models are nested, now have been documented in numerous contexts [Christensen et al., 2007a] and have been found to extend to uncertainties in climate impacts [Wood et al., 2004; Oleson et al., 2007]. While European research in future climate projections has moved forward systematically to examine combined uncertainties from global and regional models [Christensen et al., 2007b], North American climate programs have lagged behind. To fi ll this research gap, scientists developed the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (-NARCCAP). The fundamental scientifi c motivation of this international program is to explore separate and combined uncertainties in regional projections of future climate change resulting from the use of multiple atmosphere- ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) to drive multiple regional climate models (RCMs). An equally important, and related, motivation for this program is to provide the climate impacts and adaptation community with high- resolution regional climate change scenarios that can be used for studies of the societal impacts of climate change and possible adaptation strategies.

  4. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  5. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic Using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassano, John

    2013-06-30

    The primary research task completed for this project was the development of the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). This involved coupling existing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land models using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) coupler (CPL7). RACM is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model, the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean model, the CICE sea ice model, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. A secondary research task for this project was testing and evaluation of WRF for climate-scale simulations on the large pan-Arctic model domain used in RACM. This involved identification of a preferred set of model physical parameterizations for use in our coupled RACM simulations and documenting any atmospheric biases present in RACM.

  6. A global model simulation for 3-D radiative transfer impact on surface hydrology over the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Lee, W.-L.; Gu, Y.; Liou, K. N.; Leung, L. R.; Hsu, H.-H.

    2015-05-19

    We investigate 3-D mountain effects on solar flux distributions and their impact on surface hydrology over the western United States, specifically the Rocky Mountains and the Sierra Nevada, using the global CCSM4 (Community Climate System Model version 4; Community Atmosphere Model/Community Land Model – CAM4/CLM4) with a 0.23° × 0.31° resolution for simulations over 6 years. In a 3-D radiative transfer parameterization, we have updated surface topography data from a resolution of 1 km to 90 m to improve parameterization accuracy. In addition, we have also modified the upward-flux deviation (3-D–PP (plane-parallel)) adjustment to ensure that the energy balance atmore » the surface is conserved in global climate simulations based on 3-D radiation parameterization. We show that deviations in the net surface fluxes are not only affected by 3-D mountains but also influenced by feedbacks of cloud and snow in association with the long-term simulations. Deviations in sensible heat and surface temperature generally follow the patterns of net surface solar flux. The monthly snow water equivalent (SWE) deviations show an increase in lower elevations due to reduced snowmelt, leading to a reduction in cumulative runoff. Over higher-elevation areas, negative SWE deviations are found because of increased solar radiation available at the surface. Simulated precipitation increases for lower elevations, while it decreases for higher elevations, with a minimum in April. Liquid runoff significantly decreases at higher elevations after April due to reduced SWE and precipitation.« less

  7. ARM - Climate Change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SitesClimate Change Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Climate Change A Student's Guide to Global Climate Change The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) developed A Student's Guide to Global Climate Change to help provide students and educators with clear, accurate

  8. Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    overview Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Science, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility was established in 1990 to improve global climate models by increasing understanding of clouds and radiative feedbacks. Through the ARM Facility, DOE funded the development of highly instrumented research sites at strategic locations around the world: the Southern Great Plains (SGP), Tropical Western Pacific (TWP), and North Slope of Alaska (NSA).

  9. LASSO: Tying ARM Data and LES Modeling Together to Improve Climate Science

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    LASSO: Tying ARM Data and LES Modeling Together to Improve Climate Science New Routine Modeling The pilot modeling project, called LASSO-the LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation workflow-is laying the groundwork to produce routine LES modeling at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) megasite starting in 2017. The initial LASSO implementation will target shallow clouds and will later expand to other phenomena and ARM sites. A key to creating the next-generation Atmospheric Radiation

  10. Integrated Model to Access the Global Environment | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    models like TIMER and FAIR. It also uses results from agroeconomic models like LEITAP or IMPACT. When to Use This Tool This tool is most useful for development impacts assessments...

  11. Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Done, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka

    2013-10-19

    Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are resented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices.

  12. Five-years of microenvironment data along an urban-rural transect; temperature and CO2 concentrations in urban area at levels expected globally with climate change.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    George, Kate; Ziska, Lewis H; Bunce, James A; Quebedeaux, Bruno

    2007-11-01

    The heat island effect and the high use of fossil fuels in large city centers is well documented, but by how much fossil fuel consumption is elevating atmospheric CO2 concentrations and whether elevations in both atmospheric CO2 and air temperature are consistent from year to year are less well known. Our aim was to record atmospheric CO2 concentrations, air temperature and other environmental variables in an urban area and compare it to suburban and rural sites to see if urban sites are experiencing climates expected globally in the future with climate change. A transect was established from Baltimore city center (Urban site), to the outer suburbs of Baltimore (suburban site) and out to an organic farm (rural site). At each site a weather station was set-up to monitor environmental variables annually for five years. Atmospheric CO2 was significantly increased on average by 66 ppm from the rural to the urban site over the five years of the study. Air temperature was significantly higher at the urban site (14.8 oC) compared to the suburban (13.6 oC) and rural (12.7 oC) sites. Relative humidity was not different between sites but vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was significantly higher at the urban site compared to the suburban and rural sites. During wet years relative humidity was significantly increased and VPD significantly reduced. Increased nitrogen deposition at the rural site (2.1 % compared to 1.8 and 1.2 % at the suburban and urban sites) was small enough not to affect soil nitrogen content. Dense urban areas with large populations and high vehicular traffic have significantly different microclimates compared to outlying suburban and rural areas. The increases in atmospheric CO2 and air temperature are similar to changes predicted in the short term with global climate change, therefore providing an environment suitable for studying future effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.

  13. An Evaluation of Unsaturated Flow Models in an Arid Climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dixon, J.

    1999-12-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of two unsaturated flow models in arid regions. The area selected for the study was the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) at the Nevada Test Site in Nye County, Nevada. The two models selected for this evaluation were HYDRUS-1D [Simunek et al., 1998] and the SHAW model [Flerchinger and Saxton, 1989]. Approximately 5 years of soil-water and atmospheric data collected from an instrumented weighing lysimeter site near the RWMS were used for building the models with actual initial and boundary conditions representative of the site. Physical processes affecting the site and model performance were explored. Model performance was based on a detailed sensitivity analysis and ultimately on storage comparisons. During the process of developing descriptive model input, procedures for converting hydraulic parameters for each model were explored. In addition, the compilation of atmospheric data collected at the site became a useful tool for developing predictive functions for future studies. The final model results were used to evaluate the capacities of the HYDRUS and SHAW models for predicting soil-moisture movement and variable surface phenomena for bare soil conditions in the arid vadose zone. The development of calibrated models along with the atmospheric and soil data collected at the site provide useful information for predicting future site performance at the RWMS.

  14. Atmospheric Properties from the 2006 Niamey Deployment and Climate Simulation with a Geodesic Grid Coupled Climate Model Fourth Quarter 2008

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    JH Mather; DA Randall; CJ Flynn

    2008-09-30

    In 2008, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program and the Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP) have been asked to produce joint science metrics. For CCPP, the metrics will deal with a decade-long control simulation using geodesic grid-coupled climate model. For ARM, the metrics will deal with observations associated with the 2006 deployment of the ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) to Niamey, Niger. Specifically, ARM has been asked to deliver data products for Niamey that describe cloud, aerosol, and dust properties. The first quarter milestone was the initial formulation of the algorithm for retrieval of these properties. The second quarter milestone included the time series of ARM-retrieved cloud properties and a year-long CCPP control simulation. The third quarter milestone included the time series of ARM-retrieved aerosol optical depth and a three-year CCPP control simulation. This final fourth quarter milestone includes the time-series of aerosol and dust properties and a decade-long CCPP control simulation.

  15. DOE Workshop; Pan-Gass Conference on the Representation of Atmospheric Processes in Weather and Climate Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Morrison, PI Hugh

    2012-09-21

    This is the first meeting of the whole new GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) Atmospheric System Study (GASS) project that has been formed from the merger of the GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) Project and the GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Studies (GABLS). As such, this meeting will play a major role in energizing GEWEX work in the area of atmospheric parameterizations of clouds, convection, stable boundary layers, and aerosol-cloud interactions for the numerical models used for weather and climate projections at both global and regional scales. The representation of these processes in models is crucial to GEWEX goals of improved prediction of the energy and water cycles at both weather and climate timescales. This proposal seeks funds to be used to cover incidental and travel expenses for U.S.-based graduate students and early career scientists (i.e., within 5 years of receiving their highest degree). We anticipate using DOE funding to support 5-10 people. We will advertise the availability of these funds by providing a box to check for interested participants on the online workshop registration form. We will also send a note to our participants' mailing lists reminding them that the funds are available and asking senior scientists to encourage their more junior colleagues to participate. All meeting participants are encouraged to submit abstracts for oral or poster presentations. The science organizing committee (see below) will base funding decisions on the relevance and quality of these abstracts, with preference given to under-represented populations (especially women and minorities) and to early career scientists being actively mentored at the meeting (e.g. students or postdocs attending the meeting with their advisor).

  16. Global Trade and Analysis Project (GTAP) Model | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    standard model. In addition, GTAP-E incorporates carbon emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and provides for a mechanism to trade these emissions internationally. When...

  17. Predictability and Diagnosis of Low-Frequency Climate Processes in the Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dr. Arthur J. Miller

    2008-10-15

    Predicting the climate for the coming decades requires understanding both natural and anthropogenically forced climate variability. This variability is important because it has major societal impacts, for example by causing floods or droughts on land or altering fishery stocks in the ocean. Our results fall broadly into three topics: evaluating global climate model predictions; regional impacts of climate changes over western North America; and regional impacts of climate changes over the eastern North Pacific Ocean.

  18. Development of global sea ice 6.0 CICE configuration for the Met Office global coupled model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Rae, J. . G. L; Hewitt, H. T.; Keen, A. B.; Ridley, J. K.; West, A. E.; Harris, C. M.; Hunke, E. C.; Walters, D. N.

    2015-03-05

    The new sea ice configuration GSI6.0, used in the Met Office global coupled configuration GC2.0, is described and the sea ice extent, thickness and volume are compared with the previous configuration and with observationally-based datasets. In the Arctic, the sea ice is thicker in all seasons than in the previous configuration, and there is now better agreement of the modelled concentration and extent with the HadISST dataset. In the Antarctic, a warm bias in the ocean model has been exacerbated at the higher resolution of GC2.0, leading to a large reduction in ice extent and volume; further work is requiredmore » to rectify this in future configurations.« less

  19. Development of the global sea ice 6.0 CICE configuration for the Met Office global coupled model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Rae, J. G. L.; Hewitt, H. T.; Keen, A. B.; Ridley, J. K.; West, A. E.; Harris, C. M.; Hunke, E. C.; Walters, D. N.

    2015-07-24

    The new sea ice configuration GSI6.0, used in the Met Office global coupled configuration GC2.0, is described and the sea ice extent, thickness and volume are compared with the previous configuration and with observationally based data sets. In the Arctic, the sea ice is thicker in all seasons than in the previous configuration, and there is now better agreement of the modelled concentration and extent with the HadISST data set. As a result, in the Antarctic, a warm bias in the ocean model has been exacerbated at the higher resolution of GC2.0, leading to a large reduction in ice extentmore » and volume; further work is required to rectify this in future configurations.« less

  20. Development of global sea ice 6.0 CICE configuration for the Met Office global coupled model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rae, J. . G. L; Hewitt, H. T.; Keen, A. B.; Ridley, J. K.; West, A. E.; Harris, C. M.; Hunke, E. C.; Walters, D. N.

    2015-03-05

    The new sea ice configuration GSI6.0, used in the Met Office global coupled configuration GC2.0, is described and the sea ice extent, thickness and volume are compared with the previous configuration and with observationally-based datasets. In the Arctic, the sea ice is thicker in all seasons than in the previous configuration, and there is now better agreement of the modelled concentration and extent with the HadISST dataset. In the Antarctic, a warm bias in the ocean model has been exacerbated at the higher resolution of GC2.0, leading to a large reduction in ice extent and volume; further work is required to rectify this in future configurations.

  1. Development of the global sea ice 6.0 CICE configuration for the Met Office global coupled model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rae, J. G. L.; Hewitt, H. T.; Keen, A. B.; Ridley, J. K.; West, A. E.; Harris, C. M.; Hunke, E. C.; Walters, D. N.

    2015-07-24

    The new sea ice configuration GSI6.0, used in the Met Office global coupled configuration GC2.0, is described and the sea ice extent, thickness and volume are compared with the previous configuration and with observationally based data sets. In the Arctic, the sea ice is thicker in all seasons than in the previous configuration, and there is now better agreement of the modelled concentration and extent with the HadISST data set. As a result, in the Antarctic, a warm bias in the ocean model has been exacerbated at the higher resolution of GC2.0, leading to a large reduction in ice extent and volume; further work is required to rectify this in future configurations.

  2. Community Climate System Model (CCSM) Experiments and Output Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    The CCSM web makes the source code of various versions of the model freely available and provides access to experiments that have been run and the resulting output data.

  3. Transforming the representation of the boundary layer and low clouds for high-resolution regional climate modeling: Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huang, Hsin-Yuan; Hall, Alex

    2013-07-24

    Stratocumulus and shallow cumulus clouds in subtropical oceanic regions (e.g., Southeast Pacific) cover thousands of square kilometers and play a key role in regulating global climate (e.g., Klein and Hartmann, 1993). Numerical modeling is an essential tool to study these clouds in regional and global systems, but the current generation of climate and weather models has difficulties in representing them in a realistic way (e.g., Siebesma et al., 2004; Stevens et al., 2007; Teixeira et al., 2011). While numerical models resolve the large-scale flow, subgrid-scale parameterizations are needed to estimate small-scale properties (e.g. boundary layer turbulence and convection, clouds, radiation), which have significant influence on the resolved scale due to the complex nonlinear nature of the atmosphere. To represent the contribution of these fine-scale processes to the resolved scale, climate models use various parameterizations, which are the main pieces in the model that contribute to the low clouds dynamics and therefore are the major sources of errors or approximations in their representation. In this project, we aim to 1) improve our understanding of the physical processes in thermal circulation and cloud formation, 2) examine the performance and sensitivity of various parameterizations in the regional weather model (Weather Research and Forecasting model; WRF), and 3) develop, implement, and evaluate the advanced boundary layer parameterization in the regional model to better represent stratocumulus, shallow cumulus, and their transition. Thus, this project includes three major corresponding studies. We find that the mean diurnal cycle is sensitive to model domain in ways that reveal the existence of different contributions originating from the Southeast Pacific land-masses. The experiments suggest that diurnal variations in circulations and thermal structures over this region are influenced by convection over the Peruvian sector of the Andes cordillera, while the mostly dry mountain-breeze circulations force an additional component that results in semi-diurnal variations near the coast. A series of numerical tests, however, reveal sensitivity of the simulations to the choice of vertical grid, limiting the possibility of solid quantitative statements on the amplitudes and phases of the diurnal and semidiurnal components across the domain. According to our experiments, the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer scheme and the WSM6 microphysics scheme is the combination of schemes that performs best. For that combination, mean cloud cover, liquid water path, and cloud depth are fairly wellsimulated, while mean cloud top height remains too low in comparison to observations. Both microphysics and boundary layer schemes contribute to the spread in liquid water path and cloud depth, although the microphysics contribution is slightly more prominent. Boundary layer schemes are the primary contributors to cloud top height, degree of adiabaticity, and cloud cover. Cloud top height is closely related to surface fluxes and boundary layer structure. Thus, our study infers that an appropriate tuning of cloud top height would likely improve the low-cloud representation in the model. Finally, we show that entrainment governs the degree of adiabaticity, while boundary layer decoupling is a control on cloud cover. In the intercomparison study using WRF single-column model experiments, most parameterizations show a poor agreement of the vertical boundary layer structure when compared with large-eddy simulation models. We also implement a new Total-Energy/Mass- Flux boundary layer scheme into the WRF model and evaluate its ability to simulate both stratocumulus and shallow cumulus clouds. Result comparisons against large-eddy simulation show that this advanced parameterization based on the new Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux approach provides a better performance than other boundary layer parameterizations.

  4. U.S. Climate Change Science Program Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States.

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States A Report of the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources National Science and Technology Council May 2008 Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States ii Committee on the Environment and Natural Resources National Science and Technology Council George Gray Environmental Protection Agency Conrad Lautenbacher National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Sharon Hays Office of Science

  5. Selected translated abstracts of Russian-language climate-change publications. 4: General circulation models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burtis, M.D.; Razuvaev, V.N.; Sivachok, S.G.

    1996-10-01

    This report presents English-translated abstracts of important Russian-language literature concerning general circulation models as they relate to climate change. Into addition to the bibliographic citations and abstracts translated into English, this report presents the original citations and abstracts in Russian. Author and title indexes are included to assist the reader in locating abstracts of particular interest.

  6. Climate, Earth system project draws on science powerhouses

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Climate, Earth system project draws on science powerhouses Climate, Earth system project draws on science powerhouses The project will focus initially on three climate-change science drivers and corresponding questions to be answered during the project's initial phase. September 25, 2014 Computer modeling provides policymakers with essential information on such data as global sea surface temperatures related to specific currents. Computer modeling provides policymakers with essential information

  7. Comparison of Global Model Results from the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) with Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) Manipulation Experiments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, Jim; Fung, Inez; Thornton, Peter E; Covey, Curtis; Bonan, Gordon; Running, Steven; Norby, Richard J

    2008-01-01

    Free-Air CO{sub 2} Enrichment (FACE) manipulation experiments have been carried out at a handful of sites to gauge the response of the biosphere to significant increases in atmospheric [CO{sub 2}]. Early synthesis results from four temperate forest sites suggest that the response of net primary productivity (NPP) is conserved across a broad range of productivity with a stimulation at the median of 23 {+-} 2% when the surrounding air [CO{sub 2}] was raised to 550{approx}ppm. As a part of the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP), a community-based model-data comparison activity, the authors have performed a global FACE modeling experiment using two terrestrial biogeochemistry modules, CLM3-CASA and CLM3-CN, coupled to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM). The two models were forced with an improved NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set and reconstructed atmospheric [CO{sub 2}] and N deposition data through 1997. At the beginning of 1997 in the transient simulations, global atmospheric [CO{sub 2}] was abruptly raised to 550{approx}ppm, the target value used at the FACE sites. In the control runs, [CO{sub 2}] continued to rise following observations until 2004, after which it was held constant out to year 2100. In both simulations, the last 25 years of reanalysis forcing and a constant N deposition were applied after year 2004. Across all forest biomes, the NPP responses from both models are weaker than those reported for the four FACE sites. Moreover, model responses vary widely geographically with a decreasing trend of NPP increases from 40{sup o}N to 70{sup o}N. For CLM3-CASA, the largest responses occur in arid regions of western North America and central Asia, suggesting that responses are most strongly influenced by increased water use efficiency for this model. CLM3-CN exhibits consistently weaker responses than CLM3-CASA' with the strongest responses in central Asia, but significantly constrained by N limitation. C-LAMP is a sub-project of the Computational Climate Science End Station led by Dr. Warren Washington, using computing resources at the U.S. Department of Energy's National Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS).

  8. A global model simulation for 3-D radiative transfer impact on surface hydrology over Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Lee, W. -L.; Gu, Y.; Liou, K. N.; Leung, L. R.; Hsu, H. -H.

    2014-12-15

    We investigate 3-D mountain effects on solar flux distributions and their impact on surface hydrology over the Western United States, specifically the Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada using CCSM4 (CAM4/CLM4) global model with a 0.23° × 0.31° resolution for simulations over 6 years. In 3-D radiative transfer parameterization, we have updated surface topography data from a resolution of 1 km to 90 m to improve parameterization accuracy. In addition, we have also modified the upward-flux deviation [3-D - PP (plane-parallel)] adjustment to ensure that energy balance at the surface is conserved in global climate simulations based on 3-D radiation parameterization.more » We show that deviations of the net surface fluxes are not only affected by 3-D mountains, but also influenced by feedbacks of cloud and snow in association with the long-term simulations. Deviations in sensible heat and surface temperature generally follow the patterns of net surface solar flux. The monthly snow water equivalent (SWE) deviations show an increase in lower elevations due to reduced snowmelt, leading to a reduction in cumulative runoff. Over higher elevation areas, negative SWE deviations are found because of increased solar radiation available at the surface. Simulated precipitation increases for lower elevations, while decreases for higher elevations with a minimum in April. Liquid runoff significantly decreases in higher elevations after April due to reduced SWE and precipitation.« less

  9. Climate Leadership Conference

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Climate Leadership Conference is your annual exchange for addressing global climate change through policy, innovation, and business solutions. Forward-thinking lead­ers from busi­ness, gov­ern...

  10. Bayesian Proteoform Modeling Improves Protein Quantification of Global Proteomic Measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo M.; Matzke, Melissa M.; Datta, Susmita; Payne, Samuel H.; Kang, Jiyun; Bramer, Lisa M.; Nicora, Carrie D.; Shukla, Anil K.; Metz, Thomas O.; Rodland, Karin D.; Smith, Richard D.; Tardiff, Mark F.; McDermott, Jason E.; Pounds, Joel G.; Waters, Katrina M.

    2014-12-01

    As the capability of mass spectrometry-based proteomics has matured, tens of thousands of peptides can be measured simultaneously, which has the benefit of offering a systems view of protein expression. However, a major challenge is that with an increase in throughput, protein quantification estimation from the native measured peptides has become a computational task. A limitation to existing computationally-driven protein quantification methods is that most ignore protein variation, such as alternate splicing of the RNA transcript and post-translational modifications or other possible proteoforms, which will affect a significant fraction of the proteome. The consequence of this assumption is that statistical inference at the protein level, and consequently downstream analyses, such as network and pathway modeling, have only limited power for biomarker discovery. Here, we describe a Bayesian model (BP-Quant) that uses statistically derived peptides signatures to identify peptides that are outside the dominant pattern, or the existence of multiple over-expressed patterns to improve relative protein abundance estimates. It is a research-driven approach that utilizes the objectives of the experiment, defined in the context of a standard statistical hypothesis, to identify a set of peptides exhibiting similar statistical behavior relating to a protein. This approach infers that changes in relative protein abundance can be used as a surrogate for changes in function, without necessarily taking into account the effect of differential post-translational modifications, processing, or splicing in altering protein function. We verify the approach using a dilution study from mouse plasma samples and demonstrate that BP-Quant achieves similar accuracy as the current state-of-the-art methods at proteoform identification with significantly better specificity. BP-Quant is available as a MatLab and R packages at https://github.com/PNNL-Comp-Mass-Spec/BP-Quant.

  11. An open letter to the 2008 presidential candidates: get the facts right on what's responsible for global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Linden, Henry R.

    2008-07-15

    The two remaining presidential candidates have adopted policies for reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that address factors that are mistakenly held responsible as the primary cause of global warming. Here's what they need to keep in mind in order to craft genuinely efficacious policies. (author)

  12. ARM - Climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Climate Climate refers to the long-term changes in atmospheric conditions including temperature, rainfall, wind, humidity, pressure and cloudiness. One would need to take into account the fact that superimposed on the arithmetical average of

  13. 2007 Radiation & Climate GRC ( July 29-August 3, 2007)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    William Collins Nancy Ryan Gray

    2008-06-01

    The theme of the fifth Gordon Research Conference on Radiation and Climate is 'Integrating multiscale measurements and models for key climate questions'. The meeting will feature lectures, posters, and discussion regarding these issues. The meeting will focus on insights from new types of satellite and in situ data and from new approaches to modeling processes in the climate system. The program on measurements will highlight syntheses of new satellite data on cloud, aerosols, and chemistry and syntheses of satellite and sub-orbital observations from field programs. The program on modeling will address both the evaluation of cloud-resolving and regional aerosol models using new types of measurements and the evidence for processes and physics missing from global models. The Conference will focus on two key climate questions. First, what factors govern the radiative interactions of clouds and aerosols with regional and global climate? Second, how well do we understand the interaction of radiation with land surfaces and with the cryosphere?

  14. Time varying arctic climate change amplification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chylek, Petr [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Dubey, Manvendra K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Lesins, Glen [DALLHOUSIE U; Wang, Muyin [NOAA/JISAO

    2009-01-01

    During the past 130 years the global mean surface air temperature has risen by about 0.75 K. Due to feedbacks -- including the snow/ice albedo feedback -- the warming in the Arctic is expected to proceed at a faster rate than the global average. Climate model simulations suggest that this Arctic amplification produces warming that is two to three times larger than the global mean. Understanding the Arctic amplification is essential for projections of future Arctic climate including sea ice extent and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. We use the temperature records from the Arctic stations to show that (a) the Arctic amplification is larger at latitudes above 700 N compared to those within 64-70oN belt, and that, surprisingly; (b) the ratio of the Arctic to global rate of temperature change is not constant but varies on the decadal timescale. This time dependence will affect future projections of climate changes in the Arctic.

  15. Climate data, analysis and models for the study of natural variability and anthropogenic change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, Philip D.

    2014-07-31

    Gridded Temperature Under prior/current support, we completed and published (Jones et al., 2012) the fourth major update to our global land dataset of near-surface air temperatures, CRUTEM4. This is one of the most widely used records of the climate system, having been updated, maintained and further developed with DoE support since the 1980s. We have continued to update the CRUTEM4 (Jones et al., 2012) database that is combined with marine data to produce HadCRUT4 (Morice et al., 2012). The emphasis in our use of station temperature data is to access as many land series that have been homogenized by National Meteorological Services (NMSs, including NCDC/NOAA, Asheville, NC). Unlike the three US groups monitoring surface temperatures in a similar way, we do not infill areas that have no or missing data. We can only infill such regions in CRUTEM4 by accessing more station temperature series. During early 2014, we have begun the extensive task of updating as many of these series as possible using data provided by some NMSs and also through a number of research projects and programs around the world. All the station data used in CRUTEM4 have been available since 2009, but in Osborn and Jones (2014) we have made this more usable using a Google Earth interface (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/crutem/ge/ ). We have recently completed the update of our infilled land multi-variable dataset (CRU TS 3.10, Harris et al., 2014). This additionally produces complete land fields (except for the Antarctic) for temperature, precipitation, diurnal temperature range, vapour pressure and sunshine/cloud. Using this dataset we have calculated sc-PDSI (self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index) data and compared with other PDSI datasets (Trenberth et al., 2014). Also using CRU TS 3.10 and Reanalysis datasets, we showed no overall increase in global temperature variability despite changing regional patterns (Huntingford et al., 2013). Harris et al. (2014) is an update of an earlier dataset (Mitchell and Jones, 2005) which also had earlier DoE support. The earlier dataset has been cited over 1700 times according to ResearcherID on 31/July/2014 and the recent paper has already been cited 22 times. Analyses of Temperature Data Using the ERA-Interim estimate of the absolute surface air temperature of the Earth (instead of in the more normal form of anomalies) we compared the result against estimates we produced in 1999 with earlier DoE support. The two estimates are surprisingly close (differing by a couple of tenths of a degree Celsius), with the average temperature of the world (for 1981-2010) being very close to 14C (Jones and Harpham, 2013). We have assessed ERA-Interim against station temperatures from manned and automatic weather station measurements across the Antarctic (Jones and Lister, 2014). Agreement is generally excellent across the Antarctic Peninsula and the sparsely sampled western parts of Antarctica. Differences tend to occur over eastern Antarctica where ERA-Interim is biased warm (up to 6C) in the interior of the continent and biased cool (up to 6C) for some of the coastal locations. Opportunities presented themselves during 2012 for collaborative work with a couple of Chinese groups. Three papers develop new temperature series for China as a whole and also for the eastern third of China (Wang et al., 2014, Cao et al., 2013 and Zhao et al., 2014). A dataset of ~400 daily Chinese temperature stations has been added to the CRU datasets. The latter paper finds that urban effects are generally about 10% of the long-term warming trend across eastern China. A fourth paper (Wang et al., 2013) illustrates issues with comparisons between reanalyses and surface temperatures across China, a method that has been widely used by some to suggest urban heating effects are much larger in the region. ERA-Interim can be used but NCEP/NCAR comparisons are very dependent on the period analysed. Earlier a new temperature dataset of homogenized records was developed for China (Li et al., 2009). Urbanization has also been addressed for London (Jones and Lister, 2009) where two rural sites have not warmed more than a city centre site since 1900. Additionally, in Ethymiadis and Jones (2010) we show that land air temperatures agree with marine data around coastal areas, further illustrating that urbanization is not a major component of large-scale surface air temperature change. Early instrumental data (before the development of modern thermometer screens) have always been suspected of being biased warm in summer, due to possible direct exposure to the sun. Two studies (Bhm et al., 2010 and Brunet et al., 2010) show this for the Greater Alpine Region (GAR) and for mainland Spain respectively. The issue is important before about 1870 in the GAR and before about 1900 in Spain. After correction for the problems, summer temperature estimates before these dates are cooler by about 0.4C. In Jones and Wigley (2010), we discussed the importance of the biases in global temperature estimation. Exposure and to a lesser extent urbanization are the most important biases for the land areas, but both are dwarfed by the necessary adjustments for bucket SST measurements before about 1950. Individual station homogeneity is only important at the local scale. This was additionally illustrated by Hawkins and Jones (2013) where we replicated the temperature record developed by Guy Stewart Callendar in papers in 1938 and 1961. Analyses of Daily Climate Data Work here indicates that ERA-Interim (at least in Europe, Cornes and Jones, 2013, discussed in more detail in this proposal) can be used to monitor extremes (using the ETCCDI software see Zhang et al., 2011). Additionally, also as a result of Chinese collaboration, a new method of daily temperature homogenization has been developed (Li et al., 2014). In Cornes and Jones (2011) we assessed storm activity in the northeast Atlantic region using daily gridded data. Even though the grid resolution is coarse (5 by 5 lat/long) the changes in storm activity are similar to those developed from the pressure triangle approach with station data. Analyses of humidity and pressure data In Simmons et al. (2010) we showed a reduction in relative humidity over low-latitude and mid-latitude land areas for the 10 years to 2008, based on monthly anomalies of surface air temperature and humidity from ECMWF reanalyses (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim) and our earlier land-only dataset (CRUTEM3) and synoptic humidity observations (HadCRUH). Updates of this station-based humidity dataset (now called HadISDH) extend the record, showing continued reductions (Willett et al., 2013). Analyses of Proxy Temperature Data In Vinther et al. (2010), relationships between the seasonal stable isotope data from Greenland Ice Cores and Greenland and Icelandic instrumental temperatures were investigated for the past 150-200 years. The winter season stable isotope data are found to be influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and very closely related to SW Greenland temperatures. The summer season stable isotope data display higher correlations with Icelandic summer temperatures and North Atlantic SST conditions than with local SW Greenland temperatures. In Jones et al. (2014) we use these winter isotope reconstructions to show the expected inverse correlation (due to the NAO) with winter-season documentary reconstructions from the Netherlands and Sweden over the last 800 years. Finally, in this section Jones et al. (2013) shows the agreement between tree-ring width measurements from Northern Sweden and Finland and an assessment of the link to explosive volcanic eruptions. An instrumental record for the region in the early 19th century indicates that the summer of 1816 was only slightly below normal, explaining why this year has normal growth for both ring width and density. GCM/RCM/Reanalysis Evaluation In this section we have intercompared daily temperature extremes across Europe in Cornes and Jones (2013) using station data, E-OBS and ERA-Interim. We have additionally considered the impact of the urban issue on the global scale using the results of the Compo et al. (2011) Reanalyses, 20CR. These only make use of SST and station pressure data. Across the worlds land areas, they indicate similar warming since 1900 to that which has occurred (Compo et al., 2013), again illustrating that urbanization is not the cause of the long-term warming. Changes in HadCRUH global land surface specific humidity and CRUTEM3 surface temperatures from 1973 to 1999 were compared to the CMIP3 archive of climate model simulations with 20th Century forcings (Willett et al., 2010). The models reproduce the magnitude of observed interannual variance over all large regions. Observed and modelled trends and temperature-humidity relationships are comparable with the exception of the extra-tropical Southern Hemisphere where observations exhibit no trend but models exhibit moistening.

  16. The Brief History and Future Development of Earth System Models...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    modeling * Brief discussion of computational methods * Environmental Justice connected to climate change * Behind the scenes White House origin of the U. S. Global Change Research...

  17. ARM - Global Experts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Experts Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Global Experts Welcome to our Global Experts! These pages provide detailed information about global climate change. We hope you'll gain a good understanding of how our earth's climate is changing and how human activities are influencing

  18. Climate Change Impact Valuation Models Revisited | U.S. DOE Office of

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Science (SC) Climate Change Impact Valuation Models Revisited Biological and Environmental Research (BER) BER Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Searchable Archive of BER Highlights External link Benefits of BER Funding Opportunities Biological & Environmental Research Advisory Committee (BERAC) Community Resources Contact Information Biological and Environmental Research U.S. Department of Energy SC-23/Germantown Building 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 P:

  19. Getting Forest Carbon Right in Climate Models | U.S. DOE Office of Science

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    (SC) Getting Forest Carbon Right in Climate Models Biological and Environmental Research (BER) BER Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Searchable Archive of BER Highlights External link Benefits of BER Funding Opportunities Biological & Environmental Research Advisory Committee (BERAC) Community Resources Contact Information Biological and Environmental Research U.S. Department of Energy SC-23/Germantown Building 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 P: (301)

  20. Wildfires Lead to More Warming than Climate Models Predicted | U.S. DOE

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Office of Science (SC) Wildfires Lead to More Warming than Climate Models Predicted Biological and Environmental Research (BER) BER Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Searchable Archive of BER Highlights External link Benefits of BER Funding Opportunities Biological & Environmental Research Advisory Committee (BERAC) Community Resources Contact Information Biological and Environmental Research U.S. Department of Energy SC-23/Germantown Building 1000 Independence Ave., SW

  1. Improved Climate Model Simulations of Clouds | U.S. DOE Office of Science

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    (SC) Improved Climate Model Simulations of Clouds Biological and Environmental Research (BER) BER Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Searchable Archive of BER Highlights External link Benefits of BER Funding Opportunities Biological & Environmental Research Advisory Committee (BERAC) Community Resources Contact Information Biological and Environmental Research U.S. Department of Energy SC-23/Germantown Building 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 P: (301)

  2. Existence of global weak solution for a reduced gravity two and a half layer model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Guo, Zhenhua Li, Zilai Yao, Lei

    2013-12-15

    We investigate the existence of global weak solution to a reduced gravity two and a half layer model in one-dimensional bounded spatial domain or periodic domain. Also, we show that any possible vacuum state has to vanish within finite time, then the weak solution becomes a unique strong one.

  3. System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets - Vol. II, Model Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    The second volume provides a data implementation guide that lists all naming conventions and model constraints. In addition, Volume 1 has two appendixes that provide a schematic of the System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE) structure and a listing of the source code, respectively.

  4. System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets - Vol. I, Model Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    Documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of projections for the International Energy Outlook. The first volume of this report describes the System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE) methodology and provides an in-depth explanation of the equations of the model.

  5. Reducing Our Carbon Footprint: Frontiers in Climate Forecasting (LBNL Science at the Theater)

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Collins, Bill

    2011-05-09

    Bill Collins directs Berkeley Lab's research dedicated to atmospheric and climate science. Previously, he headed the development of one of the leading climate models used in international studies of global warming. His work has confirmed that man-made greenhouse gases are probably the main culprits of recent warming and future warming poses very real challenges for the environment and society. A lead author of the most recent assessment of the science of climate change by the United Nations' Integovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Collins wants to create a new kind of climate model, one that will integrate cutting-edge climate science with accurate predictions people can use to plan their lives

  6. What is the value of scientific knowledge? An application to global warminig using the PRICE model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nordhaus, W.D.; Popp, D.

    1997-02-01

    The question that this study addresses is: What is the value of the new knowledge about climate change? If natural and social scientists succeed in improving their understanding, what will be the payoff in terms of improved economic performance? For example, if the uncertainties are resolved in favor of those who argue that global warming will be minimal or beneficial, then this knowledge will allow countries to avoid expensive investments in non-carbon energy technologies or in expensive conservation efforts. On the other hand, if the worst fears prove correct, then the globe can mend its ways early so as to prevent later dislocations, famines, or inundations. To the extent that the investments are expensive or the consequences are grave, early information can be extremely valuable. 15 refs., 8 figs.

  7. ARM - Global Thinkers

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Thinkers Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Global Thinkers What is Global Warming? Investigate global warming and the conditions which lead to climatic changes. What Causes Global Warming? Information about the conditions in the atmosphere that lead to global warming. What are

  8. Global patterns and controls of soil organic carbon dynamics as simulated by multiple terrestrial biosphere models: Current status and future directions

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Yang, Jia; Banger, Kamaljit; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Michalak, Anna M.; Cook, Robert; Ciais, Philippe; Hayes, Daniel; et al

    2015-06-05

    Soil is the largest organic carbon (C) pool of terrestrial ecosystems, and C loss from soil accounts for a large proportion of land-atmosphere C exchange. Therefore, a small change in soil organic C (SOC) can affect atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and climate change. In the past decades, a wide variety of studies have been conducted to quantify global SOC stocks and soil C exchange with the atmosphere through site measurements, inventories, and empirical/process-based modeling. However, these estimates are highly uncertain, and identifying major driving forces controlling soil C dynamics remains a key research challenge. This study has compiled century-longmore » (1901–2010) estimates of SOC storage and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) from 10 terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) in the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project and two observation-based data sets. The 10 TBM ensemble shows that global SOC estimate ranges from 425 to 2111 Pg C (1 Pg = 10¹⁵ g) with a median value of 1158 Pg C in 2010. The models estimate a broad range of Rh from 35 to 69 Pg C yr⁻¹ with a median value of 51 Pg C yr⁻¹ during 2001–2010. The largest uncertainty in SOC stocks exists in the 40–65°N latitude whereas the largest cross-model divergence in Rh are in the tropics. The modeled SOC change during 1901–2010 ranges from –70 Pg C to 86 Pg C, but in some models the SOC change has a different sign from the change of total C stock, implying very different contribution of vegetation and soil pools in determining the terrestrial C budget among models. The model ensemble-estimated mean residence time of SOC shows a reduction of 3.4 years over the past century, which accelerate C cycling through the land biosphere. All the models agreed that climate and land use changes decreased SOC stocks, while elevated atmospheric CO₂ and nitrogen deposition over intact ecosystems increased SOC stocks—even though the responses varied significantly among models. Model representations of temperature and moisture sensitivity, nutrient limitation, and land use partially explain the divergent estimates of global SOC stocks and soil C fluxes in this study. In addition, a major source of systematic error in model estimations relates to nonmodeled SOC storage in wetlands and peatlands, as well as to old C storage in deep soil layers.« less

  9. Global patterns and controls of soil organic carbon dynamics as simulated by multiple terrestrial biosphere models: Current status and future directions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Yang, Jia; Banger, Kamaljit; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Michalak, Anna M.; Cook, Robert; Ciais, Philippe; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul K.; Lei, Huimin; Mao, Jiafu; Pan, Shufen; Post, Wilfred M.; Peng, Shushi; Poulter, Benjamin; Ren, Wei; Ricciuto, Daniel; Schaefer, Kevin; Shi, Xiaoying; Tao, Bo; Wang, Weile; Wei, Yaxing; Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Bowen; Zeng, Ning

    2015-06-05

    Soil is the largest organic carbon (C) pool of terrestrial ecosystems, and C loss from soil accounts for a large proportion of land-atmosphere C exchange. Therefore, a small change in soil organic C (SOC) can affect atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO?) concentration and climate change. In the past decades, a wide variety of studies have been conducted to quantify global SOC stocks and soil C exchange with the atmosphere through site measurements, inventories, and empirical/process-based modeling. However, these estimates are highly uncertain, and identifying major driving forces controlling soil C dynamics remains a key research challenge. This study has compiled century-long (19012010) estimates of SOC storage and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) from 10 terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) in the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project and two observation-based data sets. The 10 TBM ensemble shows that global SOC estimate ranges from 425 to 2111 Pg C (1 Pg = 10? g) with a median value of 1158 Pg C in 2010. The models estimate a broad range of Rh from 35 to 69 Pg C yr? with a median value of 51 Pg C yr? during 20012010. The largest uncertainty in SOC stocks exists in the 4065N latitude whereas the largest cross-model divergence in Rh are in the tropics. The modeled SOC change during 19012010 ranges from 70 Pg C to 86 Pg C, but in some models the SOC change has a different sign from the change of total C stock, implying very different contribution of vegetation and soil pools in determining the terrestrial C budget among models. The model ensemble-estimated mean residence time of SOC shows a reduction of 3.4 years over the past century, which accelerate C cycling through the land biosphere. All the models agreed that climate and land use changes decreased SOC stocks, while elevated atmospheric CO? and nitrogen deposition over intact ecosystems increased SOC stockseven though the responses varied significantly among models. Model representations of temperature and moisture sensitivity, nutrient limitation, and land use partially explain the divergent estimates of global SOC stocks and soil C fluxes in this study. In addition, a major source of systematic error in model estimations relates to nonmodeled SOC storage in wetlands and peatlands, as well as to old C storage in deep soil layers.

  10. Global warming, January 1988-March 1991 (citations from the NTIS database). Rept. for Jan 88-Mar 91

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1991-03-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning policies and general studies on global warming. Topics include the greenhouse effect, global climatic models, and climatic effects from combustion of fossil fuels. (The new bibliography contains 150 citations.) (Also includes title list and subject index.)

  11. Modeling the global emission, transport and deposition of trace elements associated with mineral dust

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Y.; Mahowald, N.; Scanza, R.; Journet, E.; Desboeufs, K.; Albani, S.; Kok, J.; Zhuang, G.; Chen, Y.; Cohen, D. D.; et al

    2014-12-17

    Trace element deposition from desert dust has important impacts on ocean primary productivity. In this study, emission inventories for 8 elements, which are primarily of soil origin, Mg, P, Ca, Mn, Fe, K, Al, and Si were determined based on a global mineral dataset and a soils dataset. Datasets of elemental fractions were used to drive the desert dust model in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in order to simulate the elemental concentrations of atmospheric dust. Spatial variability of mineral dust elemental fractions was evident on a global scale, particularly for Ca. Simulations of global variations in the Camore » / Al ratio, which typically ranged from around 0.1 to 5.0 in soil sources, were consistent with observations, suggesting this ratio to be a good signature for dust source regions. The simulated variable fractions of chemical elements are sufficiently different that estimates of deposition should include elemental variations, especially for Ca, Al and Fe. The model results have been evaluated with observational elemental aerosol concentration data from desert regions and dust events in non-dust regions, providing insights into uncertainties in the modeling approach. The ratios between modeled and observed elemental fractions ranged from 0.7 to 1.6 except for 3.4 and 3.5 for Mg and Mn, respectivly. Using the soil data base improved the correspondence of the spatial hetereogeneity in the modeling of several elements (Ca, Al and Fe) compared to observations. Total and soluble dust associated element fluxes into different ocean basins and ice sheets regions have been estimated, based on the model results. Annual inputs of soluble Mg, P, Ca, Mn, Fe and K associated with dust using mineral dataset were 0.28 Tg, 16.89 Gg, 1.32 Tg, 22.84 Gg, 0.068 Tg, and 0.15 Tg to global oceans and ice sheets.« less

  12. Toward a new parameterization of hydraulic conductivity in climate models: Simulation of rapid groundwater fluctuations in Northern California

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Vrettas, Michail D.; Fung, Inez Y.

    2015-12-31

    Preferential flow through weathered bedrock leads to rapid rise of the water table after the first rainstorms and significant water storage (also known as ‘‘rock moisture’’) in the fractures. We present a new parameterization of hydraulic conductivity that captures the preferential flow and is easy to implement in global climate models. To mimic the naturally varying heterogeneity with depth in the subsurface, the model represents the hydraulic conductivity as a product of the effective saturation and a background hydraulic conductivity Kbkg, drawn from a lognormal distribution. The mean of the background Kbkg decreases monotonically with depth, while its variance reducesmore » with the effective saturation. Model parameters are derived by assimilating into Richards’ equation 6 years of 30 min observations of precipitation (mm) and water table depths (m), from seven wells along a steep hillslope in the Eel River watershed in Northern California. The results show that the observed rapid penetration of precipitation and the fast rise of the water table from the well locations, after the first winter rains, are well captured with the new stochastic approach in contrast to the standard van Genuchten model of hydraulic conductivity, which requires significantly higher levels of saturated soils to produce the same results. ‘‘Rock moisture,’’ the moisture between the soil mantle and the water table, comprises 30% of the moisture because of the great depth of the weathered bedrock layer and could be a potential source of moisture to sustain trees through extended dry periods. Moreover, storage of moisture in the soil mantle is smaller, implying less surface runoff and less evaporation, with the proposed new model.« less

  13. A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fedorov, Alexey V.; Fedorov, Alexey

    2015-01-14

    The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth system models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.

  14. Geoengineering the Earth's Climate

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Google Tech Talks

    2009-09-01

    Emergency preparedness is generally considered to be a good thing, yet there is no plan regarding what we might do should we be faced with a climate emergency. Such an emergency could take the form of a rapid shift in precipitation patterns, a collapse of the great ice sheets, the imminent triggering of strong climate system feedbacks, or perhaps the loss of valuable ecosystems. Over the past decade, we have used climate models to investigate the potential to reverse some of the effects of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by deflecting some incoming sunlight back to space. This would probably be most cost-effectively achieved with the placement of small particles in or above the stratosphere. Our model simulations indicate that such geoengineering approaches could potentially bring our climate closer to the state is was in prior to the introduction of greenhouse gases. This talk will present much of what is known about such geoengineering approaches, and raise a range of issues likely to stimulate lively discussion. Speaker: Ken Caldeira Ken Caldeira is a scientist at the Carnegie Institution Department of Global Ecology and a Professor (by courtesy) at the Stanford University Department of Environmental and Earth System Sciences. Previously, he worked for 12 years in the Energy and Environment Directorate at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (Department of Energy). His research interests include the numerical simulation of Earth's climate, carbon, and biogeochemistry; ocean acidification; climate emergency response systems; evaluating approaches to supplying environmentally-friendly energy services; ocean carbon sequestration; long-term evolution of climate and geochemical cycles; and marine biogeochemical cycles. Caldeira has a B.A. in Philosophy from Rutgers College and an M.S. and Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from New York University.

  15. Modelling estimation on the impacts of global warming on rice production in China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang Futang

    1997-12-31

    In this paper, based on the validation and sensitivity analyses of two rice growth models (ORYZA1 and DRISIC--Double Rice Cropping Simulation Model for China), and their joining with global warming scenarios projected by GCMs (GFDL, UKMO-H, MPI and DKRZ OPYC, DKRZ LSG, respectively), the modelling experiments were carried out on the potential impacts of global warming on rice production in China. The results show that although there are the some features for each rice cropping patterns because of different models and estimated methods, the rice production for all cropping patterns in China will trend to decrease with different degrees. In average, early, middle and later rice production, as well as, double-early and double-later rice production in different areas of China will decrease 3.7%, 10.5% and 10.4%, as well as, 15.9% and 14.4%, respectively. It do illustrates that the advantage effects induced by elevated CO{sub 2} concentration on photosynthesis does not compensate the adverse effects of temperature increase. Thus, it is necessary to adjusting rice cropping patterns, cultivars and farming techniques to the global warming timely.

  16. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, Jerry; Ruane, Alex; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, Peter; Rotter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, AJ; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, Robert; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Mueller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.O.; Olesen, JE; Osborne, T.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.

    2013-09-01

    Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments1,2. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change has been increasingly described in the literature3,4 while assessments of the uncertainty in crop responses to climate change are very rare. Systematic and objective comparisons across impact studies is difficult, and thus has not been fully realized5. Here we present the largest coordinated and standardized crop model intercomparison for climate change impacts on wheat production to date. We found that several individual crop models are able to reproduce measured grain yields under current diverse environments, particularly if sufficient details are provided to execute them. However, simulated climate change impacts can vary across models due to differences in model structures and algorithms. The crop-model component of uncertainty in climate change impact assessments was considerably larger than the climate-model component from Global Climate Models (GCMs). Model responses to high temperatures and temperature-by-CO2 interactions are identified as major sources of simulated impact uncertainties. Significant reductions in impact uncertainties through model improvements in these areas and improved quantification of uncertainty through multi-model ensembles are urgently needed for a more reliable translation of climate change scenarios into agricultural impacts in order to develop adaptation strategies and aid policymaking.

  17. Global temperature deviations as a random walk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Karner, O.

    1996-12-31

    Surface air temperature is the main parameter to represent the earth`s contemporary climate. Several historical temperature records on a global/monthly basis are available. Time-series analysis shows that they can be modelled via autoregressive moving average models closely connected to the classical random walk model. Fitted models emphasize a nonstationary character of the global/monthly temperature deviation from a certain level. The nonstationarity explains all trends and periods, found in the last century`s variability of global mean temperature. This means that the short-term temperature trends are inevitable and may have little in common with a currently increasing carbon dioxide amount. The calculations show that a reasonable understanding of the contemporary global mean climate is attainable, assuming random forcing to the climate system and treating temperature deviation as a response to it. The forcings occur due to volcanic eruptions, redistribution of cloudiness, variations in snow and ice covered areas, changes in solar output, etc. Their impact can not be directly estimated from changes of the earth`s radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere, because actual measurements represent mixture of the forcings and responses. Thus, it is impossible empirically to separate the impact of one particular forcing (e.g., that due to increase of CO{sub 2} amount) from the sequence of all existing forcings in the earth climate system. More accurate modelling involving main feedback loops is necessary to ease such a separation.

  18. From Microbes to Global Carbon Models | U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    From Microbes to Global Carbon Models Biological and Environmental Research (BER) BER Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Searchable Archive of BER Highlights External link Benefits of BER Funding Opportunities Biological & Environmental Research Advisory Committee (BERAC) Community Resources Contact Information Biological and Environmental Research U.S. Department of Energy SC-23/Germantown Building 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 P: (301) 903-3251 F: (301)

  19. Modeling Global Wetlands and Their Methane Emissions | U.S. DOE Office of

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science (SC) Modeling Global Wetlands and Their Methane Emissions Biological and Environmental Research (BER) BER Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Searchable Archive of BER Highlights External link Benefits of BER Funding Opportunities Biological & Environmental Research Advisory Committee (BERAC) Community Resources Contact Information Biological and Environmental Research U.S. Department of Energy SC-23/Germantown Building 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC

  20. The AeroCom Evaluation and Intercomparison of Organic Aerosol in Global Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tsigaridis, Kostas; Daskalakis, N.; Kanakidou, M.; Adams, P. J.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bahadur, R.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S.; Bellouin, N.; Benedetti, Angela; Bergman, T.; Berntsen, T.; Beukes, J. P.; Bian, Huisheng; Carslaw, K. S.; Chin, M.; Curci, Gabriele; Diehl, Thomas; Easter, Richard C.; Ghan, Steven J.; Gong, S.; Hodzic, Alma; Hoyle, Christopher R.; Iversen, T.; Jathar, S.; Jimenez, J. L.; Kaiser, J. W.; Kirkevag, A.; Koch, Dorothy; Kokkola, H.; Lee, Y. H.; Lin, G.; Liu, Xiaohong; Luo, Gan; Ma, Xiaoyan; Mann, G. W.; Mihalopoulos, Nikos; Morcrette, J. -J.; Muller, J. F.; Myhre, G.; Myriokefalitakis, S.; Ng, Nga L.; O'Donell, D.; Penner, J. E.; Pozzoli, L.; Pringle, K. J.; Russell, Lynn; Schulz, M.; Sciare, J.; Seland, O.; Shindell, Drew; Sillman, S.; Skeie, R. B.; Spracklen, D. V.; Stavrakou, T.; Steenrod, Stephen D.; Takemura, T.; Tiitta, P.; Tilmes, S.; Tost, H.; van Noije, T.; van Zyl, P. G.; von Salzen, Knut; Yu, Fangqun; Wang, Zaizi; Wang, Zhilli; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Zhang, Hua; Zhang, Kai; Zhang, Qi; Zhang, Xiaoye

    2014-10-15

    This paper evaluates the current status of global modeling of the organic aerosol (OA) occurrence in the troposphere and analyzes the differences calculated between models as well as between models and observations. Thirty-one global chemistry/transport and general circulation models have participated in this intercomparison, in the framework of AeroCom phase II. The simulation of OA varies greatly between models in terms of the magnitude of primary emissions, secondary OA (SOA) formation, the number of OA species used (2 to 62), the complexity of OA parameterizations (gas-particle partitioning, chemical aging, multiphase chemistry, aerosol microphysics), and the OA physical, chemical and optical properties. The diversity of the global OA simulation results has increased since earlier AeroCom experiments, mainly due to the increasing complexity of the SOA parameterization in models, and the implementation of new, highly uncertain, OA sources. Diversity of over an order of magnitude exists in the modeled vertical distribution of OA that deserves a dedicated future study. Furthermore, although the OA/OC ratio depends on OA sources and atmospheric processing and is important for model evaluation against OA and OC observations, it is resolved only by few global models. The median global primary OA source strength is 56 Tg a-1 (range 34 - 144 Tg a-1) and the median secondary OA source strength (natural and anthropogenic) is 19 Tg a-1 (range 13-121 Tg a-1). Among the models that take into account the semi-volatile SOA nature, the median source is calculated to be 51 Tg a-1 (range 16-121 Tg a-1), much larger than the median value of the models that calculate SOA in a more simplistic way (19 Tg a-1; range 13-20 Tg a-1, with one model at 37 Tg a-1). The median atmospheric burden of OA is 1.4 Tg (24 models in the range of 0.6-2.0 Tg and 4 between 2.4-3.8 Tg) with a median OA lifetime of 5.4 days (range 3.8-9.6 days). In models that reported both OA and sulfate burdens, the median value of the OA/sulfate burden ratio of is calculated to be 0.77; 13 models calculate a ratio lower than 1, and 9 models higher than 1. For 26 models that reported OA deposition fluxes, the median wet removal is 70 Tg a-1 (range 28-209 Tg a-1), which is on average 85% of the total OA deposition.

  1. Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bala, G; Mirin, A

    2007-01-19

    We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and ocean circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.

  2. Two loop neutrino model and dark matter particles with global B?L symmetry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baek, Seungwon; Okada, Hiroshi; Toma, Takashi E-mail: hokada@kias.re.kr

    2014-06-01

    We study a two loop induced seesaw model with global U(1){sub B?L} symmetry, in which we consider two component dark matter particles. The dark matter properties are investigated together with some phenomenological constraints such as electroweak precision test, neutrino masses and mixing and lepton flavor violation. In particular, the mixing angle between the Standard Model like Higgs and an extra Higgs is extremely restricted by the direct detection experiment of dark matter. We also discuss the contribution of Goldstone boson to the effective number of neutrino species ?N{sub eff} ? 0.39 which has been reported by several experiments.

  3. Sensitivity of global-scale climate change attribution results to inclusion of fossil fuel black carbon aerosol - article no. L14701

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, G.S.; Jones, A.; Roberts, D.L.; Stott, P.A.; Williams, K.D.

    2005-07-16

    It is likely that greenhouse gas emissions caused most of the global mean warming observed during the 20th century, and that sulphate aerosols counteracted this warming to some extent, by reflecting solar radiation to space and thereby cooling the planet. However, the importance of another aerosol, namely black carbon, could be underestimated. Here we include fossil fuel black carbon aerosol in a detection and attribution analysis with greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosols. We find that most of the warming of the 20th Century is attributable to changes in greenhouse gases offset by net aerosol cooling. However the pattern of temperature change due to black carbon is currently indistinguishable from the sulphate aerosol pattern of temperature change. The attribution of temperature change due to greenhouse gases is not sensitive to the inclusion of black carbon. We can be confident about the overall attribution of total aerosols, but less so about the contributions of black carbon emissions to 20th century climate change. This work presents no evidence that black carbon aerosol forcing outweighed the cooling due to sulphate aerosol.

  4. Evaluation of Preindustrial to Present-day Black Carbon and its Albedo Forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee, Y. H.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Flanner, M. G.; Jiao, C.; Shindell, Drew; Berntsen, T.; Bisiauxs, M.; Cao, J.; Collins, W. J.; Curran, M.; Edwards, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, Steven J.; Horowitz, L.; McConnell, J.R.; Ming, J.; Myhre, G.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, Vaishali; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R. B.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Thevenon, F.; Xu, B.; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2013-03-05

    As a part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against the observations including 12 ice core records, a long-term surface mass concentrations and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using the NCAR Community Land and Sea-Ice model 4 with prescribed meteorology from 1996-2000, which includes the SNICAR BC-snow model. We evaluated the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations to using recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to the differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology among models; 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However,models agree well on 2.5~3 times increase in the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day, which matches with the 2.5 times increase in BC emissions. We find a large model diversity at both NH and SH high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Jungfrauch and Ispra. However, the models fail to capture the Arctic BC seasonality due tosevere underestimations during winter and spring. Compared to recent snowpack measurements, the simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2-3 of observations except for Greenland and Arctic Ocean. However, model and observation differ widely due to missing interannual variations in emissions and possibly due to the choice of the prescribed meteorology period (i.e., 1996-2000).

  5. Wanted: Global Clean Energy Partners | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Super contributor 24 February, 2010 - 13:51 imported OpenEI Global climate change. Global sustainability. Global economic development. There's no doubt about it-if the...

  6. Implementation and evaluation of online gas-phase chemistry within a regional climate model (RegCM-CHEM4)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shalaby, A. K.; Zakey, A. S.; Tawfik, A. B.; Solmon, F.; Giorgi, Filippo; Stordal, F.; Sillman, S.; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Steiner, A. L.

    2012-05-22

    The RegCM-CHEM4 is a new online climate-chemistry model based on the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) regional climate model (RegCM4). Tropospheric gas-phase chemistry is integrated into the climate model using the condensed version of the Carbon Bond Mechanism (CBM-Z; Zaveri and Peters, 1999) with a fast solver based on radical balances. We evaluate the model over Continental Europe for two different time scales: (1) an event-based analysis of the ozone episode associated with the heat wave of August 2003 and (2) a climatological analysis of a sixyear simulation (2000-2005). For the episode analysis, model simulations show good agreement with European Monitoring and Evaluation Program (EMEP) observations of hourly ozone over different regions in Europe and capture ozone concentrations during and after the August 2003 heat wave event. For long-term climate simulations, the model captures the seasonal cycle of ozone concentrations with some over prediction of ozone concentrations in non-heat wave summers. Overall, the ozone and ozone precursor evaluation shows the feasibility of using RegCM-CHEM4 for decadal-length simulations of chemistry-climate interactions.

  7. Transient Climate Simulation of the last deglaciation in CCSM3

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    He, Feng [ORNL; Erickson III, David J [ORNL; Jacob, Robert L. [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)

    2009-12-01

    We conducted the first synchronously coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulation of global climate evolution of the last deglaciation (21,000-10,000 years ago) using the NCAR CCSM3. With realistic climate forcings associated with greenhouse gasses, orbital forcing and continental ice sheet, as well as a reasonable melting water forcing, our model reproduces some major deglacial climate features, such as the H1 event, the BA warming and the YD event. A preliminary model-data comparison shows a global climate evolution largely consistent with the reconstruction. The magnitude of our model climate responses are largely consistent with the reconstruction, suggesting a good agreement between observed and modeled climate sensitivity. In contrast to previous simulations of intermediate climate models, our model AMOC has little hysteresis. As a result, the model simulates the abrupt onset of the BA warming and the abrupt termination of the YD cooling as transient responses of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to abrupt terminations of freshwater discharges. Further implications to transient model-data comparison will also be discussed.

  8. High-Resolution Modeling to Assess Tropical Cyclone Activity in Future Climate Regimes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lackmann, Gary

    2013-06-10

    Applied research is proposed with the following objectives: (i) to determine the most likely level of tropical cyclone intensity and frequency in future climate regimes, (ii) to provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty in these predictions, and (iii) to improve understanding of the linkage between tropical cyclones and the planetary-scale circulation. Current mesoscale weather forecasting models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are capable of simulating the full intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) with realistic structures. However, in order to accurately represent both the primary and secondary circulations in these systems, model simulations must be configured with sufficient resolution to explicitly represent convection (omitting the convective parameterization scheme). Most previous numerical studies of TC activity at seasonal and longer time scales have not utilized such explicit convection (EC) model runs. Here, we propose to employ the moving nest capability of WRF to optimally represent TC activity on a seasonal scale using a downscaling approach. The statistical results of a suite of these high-resolution TC simulations will yield a realistic representation of TC intensity on a seasonal basis, while at the same time allowing analysis of the feedback that TCs exert on the larger-scale climate system. Experiments will be driven with analyzed lateral boundary conditions for several recent Atlantic seasons, spanning a range of activity levels and TC track patterns. Results of the ensemble of WRF simulations will then be compared to analyzed TC data in order to determine the extent to which this modeling setup can reproduce recent levels of TC activity. Next, the boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature, tropopause height, and thermal/moisture profiles) from the recent seasons will be altered in a manner consistent with various future GCM/RCM scenarios, but that preserves the large-scale shear and incipient disturbance activity. This will allow (i) a direct comparison of future TC activity that could be expected for an active or inactive season in an altered climate regime, and (ii) a measure of the level of uncertainty and variability in TC activity resulting from different carbon emission scenarios.

  9. Final Report for DOE Grant DE-FG02-07ER64470 [Incorporation of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) into the Community Climate System Model (CCSM): Evaluation and Climate Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chassignet, Eric P

    2013-03-18

    The primary goal of the project entitled Incorporation of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) into the Community Climate System Model (CCSM): Evaluation and Climate Applications was to systematically investigate the performance of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) as an alternative oceanic component of the NCARs Community Climate System Model (CCSM). We have configured two versions of the fully coupled CCSM3/HYCOM: one with a medium resolution (T42) Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) and the other with higher resolution (T85). We have performed a comprehensive analysis of the 400-year fully coupled CCSM3/HYCOM simulations and compared the results with those from CCSM3/POP and with climatological observations, and also we have performed tuning of critical model parameters, including Smagorinsky viscosity, isopycnal diffusivity, and background vertical diffusivity. The analysis shows that most oceanic features are well represented in the CCSM3/HYCOM. The coupled CCSM3/HYCOM (T42) has been integrated for 400 years, and the results have been archived and transferred to the High Performance Computer in the Florida State Univesity. In the last year, we have made comprehensive diagnostics of the long-term simulations by the comparison with the original CCSM3/POP simulation and with the observations. To gain some understanding of the model biases, the mean climate and modes of climate variability of the two models are compared with observations. The examination includes the Northern and Southern Annular Modes (NAM and SAM), the Pacific-North-American (PNA) pattern, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the main Southern Ocean SST mode. We also compared the performance of ENSO simulation in the coupled models. This report summarizes the main findings from the comparison of long-term CCSM3/HYCOM and CCSM3/POP simulations.

  10. Selected Translated Abstracts of Chinese-Language Climate Change Publications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cushman, R.M.; Burtis, M.D.

    1999-05-01

    This report contains English-translated abstracts of important Chinese-language literature concerning global climate change for the years 1995-1998. This body of literature includes the topics of adaptation, ancient climate change, climate variation, the East Asia monsoon, historical climate change, impacts, modeling, and radiation and trace-gas emissions. In addition to the biological citations and abstracts translated into English, this report presents the original citations and abstracts in Chinese. Author and title indexes are included to assist the reader in locating abstracts of particular interest.

  11. Enabling a Highly-Scalable Global Address Space Model for Petascale Computing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Apra, Edoardo; Vetter, Jeffrey S; Yu, Weikuan

    2010-01-01

    Over the past decade, the trajectory to the petascale has been built on increased complexity and scale of the underlying parallel architectures. Meanwhile, software de- velopers have struggled to provide tools that maintain the productivity of computational science teams using these new systems. In this regard, Global Address Space (GAS) programming models provide a straightforward and easy to use addressing model, which can lead to improved produc- tivity. However, the scalability of GAS depends directly on the design and implementation of the runtime system on the target petascale distributed-memory architecture. In this paper, we describe the design, implementation, and optimization of the Aggregate Remote Memory Copy Interface (ARMCI) runtime library on the Cray XT5 2.3 PetaFLOPs computer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. We optimized our implementation with the flow intimation technique that we have introduced in this paper. Our optimized ARMCI implementation improves scalability of both the Global Arrays (GA) programming model and a real-world chemistry application NWChem from small jobs up through 180,000 cores.

  12. HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Le Page, Yannick LB; Morton, Douglas; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Pereira, Jose M.; Hurtt, George C.

    2015-02-13

    Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (HumanEarth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spread over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.

  13. U.S. Mayor's Climate Protection Agreement: Climate Action Handbook...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Action Handbook offers examples of actions that local governments can take to reduce global warming emissions and implement the commitments for climate protection called out...

  14. Structural analysis of three global land models on carbon cycle simulations using a traceability framework

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Rafique, R.; Xia, J.; Hararuk, O.; Luo, Y.

    2014-06-27

    Modeled carbon (C) storage capacity is largely determined by the C residence time and net primary productivity (NPP). Extensive research has been done on NPP dynamics but the residence time and their relationships with C storage are much less studied. In this study, we implemented a traceability analysis to understand the modeled C storage and residence time in three land surface models: CSIRO's Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) with 9 C pools, Community Land Model (version 3.5) combined with Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CLM3.5-CASA) with 12 C pools and Community Land Model (version 4) (CLM4) with 26 C pools. The globally averagedmoreC storage and residence time was computed at both individual pool and total ecosystem levels. The spatial distribution of total ecosystem C storage and residence time differ greatly among the three models. The CABLE model showed a closer agreement with measured C storage and residence time in plant and soil pools than CLM3.5-CASA and CLM4. However, CLM3.5-CASA and CLM4 were close to each other in modeled C storage but not with measured data. CABLE stores more C in root whereas CLM3.5-CASA and CLM4 store more C in woody pools, partly due to differential NPP allocation in respective pools. The C residence time in individual C pools is greatly different among models, largely because of different transfer coefficient values among pools. CABLE had higher bulk residence time for soil C pools than the other two models. Overall, the traceability analysis used in this study can help fully characterizes the behavior of complex land models.less

  15. Global Climate Change Impacts & Activities

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Report Overview Report Overview I. The Business Case for Energy Efficiency II. Pew Center Survey Results III. The 7-Habits of Highly Efficient Companies IV. Best Practices a) ...

  16. Sandia Energy Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Team Attends World Water Week in Stockholm http:energy.sandia.govsandia-team-attends-world-water-week-in-stockholm http:energy.sandia.govsandia-team-attends-world-water-week...

  17. Evaluating Global Aerosol Models and Aerosol and Water Vapor Properties Near Clouds

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Turner, David, D.; Ferrare, Richard, A.

    2011-07-06

    The 'Evaluating Global Aerosol Models and Aerosol and Water Vapor Properties Near Clouds' project focused extensively on the analysis and utilization of water vapor and aerosol profiles derived from the ARM Raman lidar at the Southern Great Plains ARM site. A wide range of different tasks were performed during this project, all of which improved quality of the data products derived from the lidar or advanced the understanding of atmospheric processes over the site. These activities included: upgrading the Raman lidar to improve its sensitivity; participating in field experiments to validate the lidar aerosol and water vapor retrievals; using the lidar aerosol profiles to evaluate the accuracy of the vertical distribution of aerosols in global aerosol model simulations; examining the correlation between relative humidity and aerosol extinction, and how these change, due to horizontal distance away from cumulus clouds; inferring boundary layer turbulence structure in convective boundary layers from the high-time-resolution lidar water vapor measurements; retrieving cumulus entrainment rates in boundary layer cumulus clouds; and participating in a field experiment that provided data to help validate both the entrainment rate retrievals and the turbulent profiles derived from lidar observations.

  18. Dynamics of Arctic and Sub-Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Circulation: Diagnosis of Mechanisms and Biases Using Data Assimilation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eric T. DeWeaver

    2010-02-17

    The overall goal of work performed under this grant is to enhance understanding of simulations of present-day climate and greenhouse gas-induced climate change. The examination of present-day climate also includes diagnostic intercomparison of model simulations and observed mean climate and climate variability using reanalysis and satellite datasets. Enhanced understanding is desirable 1) as a prerequisite for improving simulations; 2) for assessing the credibility of model simulations and their usefulness as tools for decision support; and 3) as a means to identify robust behaviors which commonly occur over a wide range of models, and may yield insights regarding the dominant physical mechanisms which determine mean climate and produce climate change. A further objective is to investigate the use of data assimilation as a means for examining and correcting model biases. Our primary focus is on the Arctic, but the scope of the work was expanded to include the global climate system.

  19. Improved atmosphere-ocean coupled modeling in the tropics for climate prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Minghua

    2015-01-01

    We investigated the initial development of the double ITCZ in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM Version 3) in the central Pacific. Starting from a resting initial condition of the ocean in January, the model developed a warm bias of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the central Pacific from 5oS to 10oS in the first three months. We found this initial bias to be caused by excessive surface shortwave radiation that is also present in the standalone atmospheric model. The initial bias is further amplified by biases in both surface latent heat flux and horizontal heat transport in the upper ocean. These biases are caused by the responses of surface winds to SST bias and the thermocline structure to surface wind curls. We also showed that the warming biases in surface solar radiation and latent heat fluxes are seasonally offset by cooling biases from reduced solar radiation after the austral summer due to cloud responses and in the austral fall due to enhanced evaporation when the maximum SST is closest to the equator. The warming biases from the dynamic heat transport by ocean currents however stay throughout all seasons once they are developed, which are eventually balanced by enhanced energy exchange and penetration of solar radiation below the mixed layer. Our results also showed that the equatorial cold tongue develops after the warm biases in the south central Pacific, and the overestimation of surface shortwave radiation recurs in the austral summer in each year.

  20. Evaluating Water Vapor in the NCAR CAM3 Climate Model with RRTMG/McICA using Modeled and Observed AIRS Spectral Radiances

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Water Vapor in the NCAR CAM3 Climate Model with RRTMG/McICA using Modeled and Observed AIRS Spectral Radiances Michael J. Iacono, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., 131 Hartwell Avenue, Lexington, MA 02421 USA 1. Overview Objectives: * Evaluate water vapor and temperature simulation in two versions of CAM3 by comparing modeled and observed cloud-cleared AIRS spectral radiances. * Use spectral differences to verify comparisons between modeled water vapor and temperature and observed

  1. Climate Change Adaptation/Resilience

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE facilities are located in all eight climate regions identified in the 2014 National Climate Assessment (as established by the U.S. Global Change Research Program), and are vulnerable to identified climate change impacts in those regions. To assist with establishing and maintaining an effective climate adaptation process, DOE is working to integrate climate adaptation concerns into all applicable DOE orders, policies, and planning documents.

  2. A sensitivity study of the thermodynamic environment on GFDL model hurricane intensity: Implications for global warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shen, W.; Tuleya, R.E.; Ginis, I.

    2000-01-01

    In this study, the effect of thermodynamic environmental changes on hurricane intensity is extensively investigated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane model for a suite of experiments with different initial upper-tropospheric temperature anomalies up to {+-}4 C and sea surface temperatures ranging from 26 to 31 C given the same relative humidity profile. The results indicate that stabilization in the environmental atmosphere and sea surface temperature (SST) increase cause opposing effects on hurricane intensity. The offsetting relationship between the effects of atmospheric stability increase (decrease) and SST increase (decrease) is monotonic and systematic in the parameter space. This implies that hurricane intensity increase due to a possible global warming associated with increased CO{sub 2} is considerably smaller than that expected from warming of the oceanic waters alone. The results also indicate that the intensity of stronger (weaker) hurricanes is more (less) sensitive to atmospheric stability and SST changes. The model-attained hurricane intensity is found to be well correlated with the maximum surface evaporation and the large-scale environmental convective available potential energy. The model-attained hurricane intensity if highly correlated with the energy available from wet-adiabatic ascent near the eyewall relative to a reference sounding in the undisturbed environment for all the experiments. Coupled hurricane-ocean experiments show that hurricane intensity becomes less sensitive to atmospheric stability and SST changes since the ocean coupling causes larger (smaller) intensity reduction for stronger (weaker) hurricanes. This implies less increase of hurricane intensity related to a possible global warming due to increased CO{sub 2}.

  3. HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Le Page, Yannick LB; Morton, Douglas; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Pereira, Jose M.; Hurtt, George C.

    2015-02-13

    Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (Human–Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spreadmore » over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.« less

  4. Sandia Energy - Global

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Global Home Analysis Permalink Gallery Results from the Human Resilience Index and Modeling project were reported recently in the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2030...

  5. Present and Future Modes of Low Frequency Climate Variability

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cane, Mark A.

    2014-02-20

    This project addressed area (1) of the FOA, Interaction of Climate Change and Low Frequency Modes of Natural Climate Variability. Our overarching objective is to detect, describe and understand the changes in low frequency variability between model simulations of the preindustrial climate and simulations of a doubled CO2 climate. The deliverables are a set of papers providing a dynamical characterization of interannual, decadal, and multidecadal variability in coupled models with attention to the changes in this low frequency variability between pre-industrial concentrations of greenhouse gases and a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. The principle mode of analysis, singular vector decomposition, is designed to advance our physical, mechanistic understanding. This study will include external natural variability due to solar and volcanic aerosol variations as well as variability internal to the climate system. An important byproduct is a set of analysis tools for estimating global singular vector structures from the archived output of model simulations.

  6. Global decarbonization strategies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Messner, S.

    1996-12-31

    The presentation covers a brief summary of the research activities of the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies Project (ECS) at IIASA. The overall research focuses on long-term global energy development and emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). The ultimate goal is to analyze strategies that achieve decarbonization of global energy systems during the next century. The specific activities range from mitigation of GHG emissions to an integrated assessment of climate change. One focal point is the GHG mitigation technology inventory CO{sub 2}DB, which presently covers approximately 1,400 technologies related to energy and the greenhouse effect. Another integral part is the development of global energy and emissions scenarios, an effort involving a number of formal models to assess the implications. A large number of global scenarios for the next century has been developed, that could be grouped into three families. All of them include energy efficiency improvements and some degree of decarbonization in the world. They are based on different economic and technological development trajectories, and their emissions range from very high to a stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions. The presentation will outline the salient characteristics of the three scenario families and provide some regional implications of these alternative futures.

  7. Climate Change: The Role of Particles and Gases (LBNL Summer Lecture Series)

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Menon, Surabi

    2011-04-28

    Summer Lecture Series 2008: A member of the Atmospheric Sciences Department in the Environmental Energy Technologies Division (EETD), Surabi Menon's work focuses on the human contribution to increasing impacts of climate change. Her talk will focus on what humans can do about the effects of global warming by examining anthropogenic influences on climate and future anticipated impacts, using a climate model and her own observations.

  8. High-Resolution Global Modeling of the Effects of Subgrid-Scale Clouds and Turbulence on Precipitating Cloud Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bogenschutz, Peter; Moeng, Chin-Hoh

    2015-10-13

    The PIs at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Chin-Hoh Moeng and Peter Bogenschutz, have primarily focused their time on the implementation of the Simplified-Higher Order Turbulence Closure (SHOC; Bogenschutz and Krueger 2013) to the Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) global model and testing of SHOC on deep convective cloud regimes.

  9. ARM - Different Climates

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ListDifferent Climates Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Different Climates The earth's climate varies from place to place. Locations near the Equator tend to be constantly hot and wet, such as the Pacific islands and the Amazon Basins. Some places near the North and South

  10. Taking off the training wheels: the properties of a dynamic vegetation model without climate envelopes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fisher, R. A.; Muszala, S.; Verteinstein, M.; Lawrence, P.; Xu, C.; McDowell, N. G.; Knox, R. G.; Koven, C.; Holm, J.; Rogers, B. M.; Lawrence, D.; Bonan, G.

    2015-04-29

    We describe an implementation of the Ecosystem Demography (ED) concept in the Community Land Model. The structure of CLM(ED) and the physiological and structural modifications applied to the CLM are presented. A major motivation of this development is to allow the prediction of biome boundaries directly from plant physiological traits via their competitive interactions. Here we investigate the performance of the model for an example biome boundary in Eastern North America. We explore the sensitivity of the predicted biome boundaries and ecosystem properties to the variation of leaf properties determined by the parameter space defined by the GLOPNET global leaf trait database. Further, we investigate the impact of four sequential alterations to the structural assumptions in the model governing the relative carbon economy of deciduous and evergreen plants. The default assumption is that the costs and benefits of deciduous vs. evergreen leaf strategies, in terms of carbon assimilation and expenditure, can reproduce the geographical structure of biome boundaries and ecosystem functioning. We find some support for this assumption, but only under particular combinations of model traits and structural assumptions. Many questions remain regarding the preferred methods for deployment of plant trait information in land surface models. In some cases, plant traits might best be closely linked with each other, but we also find support for direct linkages to environmental conditions. We advocate for intensified study of the costs and benefits of plant life history strategies in different environments, and for the increased use of parametric and structural ensembles in the development and analysis of complex vegetation models.

  11. Taking off the training wheels: the properties of a dynamic vegetation model without climate envelopes

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Fisher, R. A.; Muszala, S.; Verteinstein, M.; Lawrence, P.; Xu, C.; McDowell, N. G.; Knox, R. G.; Koven, C.; Holm, J.; Rogers, B. M.; et al

    2015-04-29

    We describe an implementation of the Ecosystem Demography (ED) concept in the Community Land Model. The structure of CLM(ED) and the physiological and structural modifications applied to the CLM are presented. A major motivation of this development is to allow the prediction of biome boundaries directly from plant physiological traits via their competitive interactions. Here we investigate the performance of the model for an example biome boundary in Eastern North America. We explore the sensitivity of the predicted biome boundaries and ecosystem properties to the variation of leaf properties determined by the parameter space defined by the GLOPNET global leafmore » trait database. Further, we investigate the impact of four sequential alterations to the structural assumptions in the model governing the relative carbon economy of deciduous and evergreen plants. The default assumption is that the costs and benefits of deciduous vs. evergreen leaf strategies, in terms of carbon assimilation and expenditure, can reproduce the geographical structure of biome boundaries and ecosystem functioning. We find some support for this assumption, but only under particular combinations of model traits and structural assumptions. Many questions remain regarding the preferred methods for deployment of plant trait information in land surface models. In some cases, plant traits might best be closely linked with each other, but we also find support for direct linkages to environmental conditions. We advocate for intensified study of the costs and benefits of plant life history strategies in different environments, and for the increased use of parametric and structural ensembles in the development and analysis of complex vegetation models.« less

  12. Global crop yield losses from recent warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lobell, D; Field, C

    2006-06-02

    Global yields of the world-s six most widely grown crops--wheat, rice, maize, soybeans, barley, sorghum--have increased since 1961. Year-to-year variations in growing season minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation explain 30% or more of the variations in yield. Since 1991, climate trends have significantly decreased yield trends in all crops but rice, leading to foregone production since 1981 of about 12 million tons per year of wheat or maize, representing an annual economic loss of $1.2 to $1.7 billion. At the global scale, negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields are already apparent. Annual global temperatures have increased by {approx}0.4 C since 1980, with even larger changes observed in several regions (1). While many studies have considered the impacts of future climate changes on food production (2-5), the effects of these past changes on agriculture remain unclear. It is likely that warming has improved yields in some areas, reduced them in others, and had negligible impacts in still others; the relative balance of these effects at the global scale is unknown. An understanding of this balance would help to anticipate impacts of future climate changes, as well as to more accurately assess recent (and thereby project future) technologically driven yield progress. Separating the contribution of climate from concurrent changes in other factors--such as crop cultivars, management practices, soil quality, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) levels--requires models that describe the response of yields to climate. Studies of future global impacts of climate change have typically relied on a bottom-up approach, whereby field scale, process-based models are applied to hundreds of representative sites and then averaged (e.g., ref 2). Such approaches require input data on soil and management conditions, which are often difficult to obtain. Limitations on data quality or quantity can thus limit the utility of this approach, especially at the local scale (6-8). At the global scale, however, many of the processes and impacts captured by field scale models will tend to cancel out, and therefore simpler empirical/statistical models with fewer input requirements may be as accurate (8, 9). Empirical/statistical models also allow the effects of poorly modeled processes (e.g., pest dynamics) to be captured and uncertainties to be readily quantified (10). Here we develop new, empirical/statistical models of global yield responses to climate using datasets on broad-scale yields, crop locations, and climate variability. We focus on global average yields for the six most widely grown crops in the world: wheat, rice, maize, soybeans, barley, and sorghum. Production of these crops accounts for over 40% of global cropland area (11). 55% of non-meat calories, and over 70% of animal feed (12).

  13. Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Gerald; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Mueller, C.; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2013-12-16

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and will thus be directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the IPCCs Representative Concentration Pathway that result in end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 watts per square meter. The mean biophysical impact on crop yield with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17 percent reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11 percent, increase area of major crops by 12 percent, and reduce consumption by 2 percent. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences includes model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

  14. Can reducing black carbon emissions counteract global warming?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tami C. Bond; Haolin Sun

    2005-08-15

    Field measurements and model results have recently shown that aerosols may have important climatic impacts. One line of inquiry has investigated whether reducing climate-warming soot or black carbon aerosol emissions can form a viable component of mitigating global warming. Black carbon is produced by poor combustion, from our example hard coal cooking fires for and industrial pulverized coal boilers. The authors review and acknowledge scientific arguments against considering aerosols and greenhouse gases in a common framework, including the differences in the physical mechanisms of climate change and relevant time scales. It is argued that such a joint consideration is consistent with the language of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Results from published climate-modeling studies are synthesized to obtain a global warming potential for black carbon relative to that of CO{sub 2} (680 on a 100 year basis). This calculation enables a discussion of cost-effectiveness for mitigating the largest sources of black carbon. It is found that many emission reductions are either expensive or difficult to enact when compared with greenhouse gases, particularly in Annex I countries. Finally, a role for black carbon in climate mitigation strategies is proposed that is consistent with the apparently conflicting arguments raised during the discussion. Addressing these emissions is a promising way to reduce climatic interference primarily for nations that have not yet agreed to address greenhouse gas emissions and provides the potential for a parallel climate agreement. 31 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  15. Secretary Chu to Focus on Opportunities for Global Cooperation...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    on Energy, Economic and Climate Challenges During 6-Day European Trip Secretary Chu to Focus on Opportunities for Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate ...

  16. Modeling the effect of climate change on U.S. state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon E.; Eom, Jiyong; Kyle, G. Page; Patel, Pralit L.; Kim, Son H.; Dirks, James A.; Jensen, Erik A.; Liu, Ying; Rice, Jennie S.; Schmidt, Laurel C.; Seiple, Timothy E.

    2014-01-01

    As long-term socioeconomic transformation and energy service expansion show large spatial heterogeneity, advanced understanding of climate impact on building energy use at the sub-national level will offer useful insights into climate policy and regional energy system planning. In this study, we presented a detailed building energy model with a U.S. state-level representation, nested in the GCAM integrated assessment framework. We projected state-level building energy demand and its spatial pattern over the century, considering the impact of climate change based on the estimates of heating and cooling degree days derived from downscaled USGS CASCaDE temperature data. The result indicates that climate change has a large impact on heating and cooling building energy and fuel use at the state level, exhibiting large spatial heterogeneity across states (ranges from -10% to +10%). The sensitivity analysis reveals that the building energy demand is subject to multiple key factors, such as the magnitude of climate change, the choice of climate models, and the growth of population and GDP, and that their relative contributions vary greatly across the space. The scale impact in building energy use modeling highlights the importance of constructing a building energy model with the spatially-explicit representation of socioeconomics, energy system development, and climate change. These findings will help the climate-based policy decision and energy system, especially utility planning related to building sector at the U.S. state and regional level facing the potential climate change.

  17. The effect of climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Yuyu; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.

    2013-08-01

    A changing climate will affect the energy system in a number of ways, one of which is through changes in demands for heating and cooling in buildings. Understanding the potential effect of climate on heating and cooling demands must take into account not only the manner in which the building sector might evolve over time - including, for example, movements from rural to urban environments in developing countries - but also important uncertainty about the nature of climate change itself and the growth and movements of populations over time. In this study, we explored the uncertainty in climate change impacts on heating and cooling by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days for both a reference (no-policy) scenario and a climate mitigation scenario built from 0.5 degree latitude by 0.5 degree longitude resolution output from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three gridded scenarios of population distribution. The implications that changing climate and population distribution might have for building energy consumption in the U.S. and China were then explored by using the heating and cooling degree days results as inputs to a detailed, building energy model, nested in the long-term global integrated assessment framework, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Across the climate models and population distribution scenarios, the results indicate that unabated climate change would cause total final energy consumption to decrease modestly in both U.S. and China buildings by the end of the century, as decreased heating consumption is more than balanced by increased cooling using primarily electricity. However, the results also indicate that when indirect emissions from the power sector are also taken into account, climate change may have negligible effect on building sector CO2 emissions in the two countries. The variation in results due to variation of population distribution is noticeably smaller than variation due to the use of different climate models.

  18. CRED: A New Model of Climate and Development | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    damages and climate policy costs. It is designed to estimate both the best pace of investment in mitigation and the best distribution of the cost of that investment to regions of...

  19. Bioenergy in Energy Transformation and Climate Management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rose, Steven K.; Kriegler, Elmar; Bibas, Ruben; Calvin, Katherine V.; Popp, Alexander; van Vuuren, Detlef; Weyant, John

    2014-04-01

    Unlike fossil fuels, biomass is a renewable resource that can sequester carbon during growth, be converted to energy, and then re-grown. Biomass is also a flexible fuel that can service many end-uses. This paper explores the importance of bioenergy to potential future energy transformation and climate change management. Using a model comparison of fifteen models, we characterize and analyze future dependence on, and the value of, bioenergy in achieving potential long-run climate objectivesreducing radiative forcing to 3.7 and 2.8 W/m2 in 2100 (approximately 550 and 450 ppm carbon dioxide equivalent atmospheric concentrations). Model scenarios project, by 2050, bioenergy growth of 2 to 10% per annum reaching 5 to 35 percent of global primary energy, and by 2100, bioenergy becoming 15 to 50 percent of global primary energy. Non-OECD regions are projected to be the dominant suppliers of biomass, as well as consumers, with up to 35 percent of regional electricity from biopower by 2050, and up to 70 percent of regional liquid fuels from biofuels by 2050. Bioenergy is found to be valuable to many models with significant implications for mitigation costs and world consumption. The availability of bioenergy, in particular biomass with carbon dioxide capture and storage (BECCS), notably affects the cost-effective global emissions trajectory for climate management by accommodating prolonged near-term use of fossil fuels. We also find that models cost-effectively trade-off land carbon and nitrous oxide emissions for the long-run climate change management benefits of bioenergy. Overall, further evaluation of the viability of global large-scale bioenergy is merited.

  20. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reeves, T.L.; Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.R.; Skinner, Q.D.

    1992-06-01

    The scope of this program is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 {times} 3.0 {times} 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by RBOSC to carry out this study. Research objectives were designed to evaluate hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical properties and conditions which would affect the design and performance of large-scale embankments. The objectives of this research are: assess the unsaturated movement and redistribution of water and the development of potential saturated zones and drainage in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the unsaturated movement of solubles and major chemical constituents in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the physical and constitutive properties of the processed oil shale and determine potential changes in these properties caused by disposal and weathering by natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the use of previously developed computer model(s) to describe the infiltration, unsaturated movement, redistribution, and drainage of water in disposed processed oil shale; evaluate the stability of field scale processed oil shale solid waste embankments using computer models.

  1. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reeves, T.L.; Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.R.; Skinner, Q.D.

    1992-06-01

    The scope of this program is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 [times] 3.0 [times] 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by RBOSC to carry out this study. Research objectives were designed to evaluate hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical properties and conditions which would affect the design and performance of large-scale embankments. The objectives of this research are: assess the unsaturated movement and redistribution of water and the development of potential saturated zones and drainage in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the unsaturated movement of solubles and major chemical constituents in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the physical and constitutive properties of the processed oil shale and determine potential changes in these properties caused by disposal and weathering by natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the use of previously developed computer model(s) to describe the infiltration, unsaturated movement, redistribution, and drainage of water in disposed processed oil shale; evaluate the stability of field scale processed oil shale solid waste embankments using computer models.

  2. A Vorticity-Divergence Global Semi-Lagrangian Spectral Model for the Shallow Water Equations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Drake, JB

    2001-11-30

    The shallow water equations modeling flow on a sphere are useful for the development and testing of numerical algorithms for atmospheric climate and weather models. A new formulation of the shallow water equations is derived which exhibits an advective form for the vorticity and divergence. This form is particularly well suited for numerical computations using a semi-Lagrangian spectral discretization. A set of test problems, standard for the shallow water equations on a sphere, are solved and results compared with an Eulerian spectral model. The semi-Lagrangian transport method was introduced into atmospheric modeling by Robert, Henderson, and Turnbull. A formulation based on a three time level integration scheme in conjunction with a finite difference spatial discretization was studied by Ritchie. Two time level grid point schemes were derived by Bates et al. Staniforth and Cote survey developments of the application of semi-Lagrangian transport (SLT) methods for shallow water models and for numerical weather prediction. The spectral (or spherical harmonic transform) method when combined with a SLT method is particularly effective because it allows for long time steps avoiding the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) restriction of Eulerian methods, while retaining accurate (spectral) treatment of the spatial derivatives. A semi-implicit, semi-Lagrangian formulation with spectral spatial discretization is very effective because the Helmholz problem arising from the semi-implicit time integration can be solved cheaply in the course of the spherical harmonic transform. The combination of spectral, semi-Lagrangian transport with a semi-implicit time integration schemes was first proposed by Ritchie. A advective formulation using vorticity and divergence was introduced by Williamson and Olson. They introduce the vorticity and divergence after the application of the semi-Lagrangian discretization. The semi-Lagrangian formulation of Williamson and Olson and Bates et al. has the property that the metric terms of the advective form are treated discretely requiring a delicate spherical vector addition of terms at the departure point and arrival point. In their formulation, the metric terms associated with the advection operator do not appear explicitly. The spherical geometry associated with the combination of vector quantities at arrival and departure points treats the metric terms and is derived in Bates et al. The formulation derived in this paper avoids this vector addition. It is possible to do this because our formulation is based entirely on a scalar, advective form of the momentum equations. This new form is made possible by the generalization of a vector identity to spherical geometry. In Section 2 the standard form of the shallow water equations in spherical geometry are given. Section 3 presents the vector identities needed to derive an advective form of the vorticity and divergence equations. The semi-implicit time integration and semi-Lagrangian transport method are described in Section 4. The SLT interpolation scheme is described in Section 5. Section 6 completes the development of the discrete model with the description of the semi-implicit spectral equations. A discussion of results on several standard test problems is contained in Section 7.

  3. Pacific Decadal Variability and Central Pacific Warming El Nio in a Changing Climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Di Lorenzo, Emanuele

    2015-02-27

    This research aimed at understanding the dynamics controlling decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean and its interactions with global-scale climate change. The first goal was to assess how the dynamics and statistics of the El Nio Southern Oscillation and the modes of Pacific decadal variability are represented in global climate models used in the IPCC. The second goal was to quantify how decadal dynamics are projected to change under continued greenhouse forcing, and determine their significance in the context of paleo-proxy reconstruction of long-term climate.

  4. Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility (ACRF) Annual Report 2008

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    LR Roeder

    2008-12-01

    The Importance of Clouds and Radiation for Climate Change: The Earths surface temperature is determined by the balance between incoming solar radiation and thermal (or infrared) radiation emitted by the Earth back to space. Changes in atmospheric composition, including greenhouse gases, clouds, and aerosols, can alter this balance and produce significant climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tool for quantifying future climate change; however, there remain significant uncertainties in the GCM treatment of clouds, aerosol, and their effects on the Earths energy balance. In 1989, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science created the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program to address scientific uncertainties related to global climate change, with a specific focus on the crucial role of clouds and their influence on the transfer of radiation in the atmosphere. To reduce these scientific uncertainties, the ARM Program uses a unique twopronged approach: The ARM Climate Research Facility, a scientific user facility for obtaining long-term measurements of radiative fluxes, cloud and aerosol properties, and related atmospheric characteristics in diverse climate regimes; and The ARM Science Program, focused on the analysis of ACRF and other data to address climate science issues associated with clouds, aerosols, and radiation, and to improve GCMs. This report provides an overview of each of these components and a sample of achievements for each in fiscal year (FY) 2008.

  5. ARM - Predictions of Climate Change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    TeachersTopic ListPredictions of Climate Change Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Predictions of Climate Change There are no accurate predictions of what will happen to earth's climate with an increase in greenhouse gases. The climate system is very complex, so that scientists

  6. Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate Challenges in Talks with World Energy Ministers Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and ...

  7. Burkina Faso-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  8. Global Timber Market and Forestry Data Project | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    data has been used in analysis should visit the Forests, Economics and Global Climate Change website." References "Global Timber Market and Forestry Data Project" Retrieved...

  9. Djibouti-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  10. Central African Republic-National Adaptation Plan Global Support...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  11. Niger-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  12. Rwanda-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  13. Lesotho-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  14. Liberia-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  15. Malawi-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  16. Comoros-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  17. Tanzania-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  18. Bangladesh-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  19. The Gambia-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  20. Democratic Republic of Congo-National Adaptation Plan Global...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  1. Uganda-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  2. Mozambique-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  3. Mauritania-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  4. Sudan-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  5. Cambodia-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  6. Benin-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  7. A Study of Longwave Radiation Codes for Climate Studies: Validation with ARM Observations and Tests in General Circulation Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robert G. Ellingson

    2004-09-28

    One specific goal of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) program is to improve the treatment of radiative transfer in General Circulation Models (GCMs) under clear-sky, general overcast and broken cloud conditions. Our project was geared to contribute to this goal by attacking major problems associated with one of the dominant radiation components of the problem --longwave radiation. The primary long-term project objectives were to: (1) develop an optimum longwave radiation model for use in GCMs that has been calibrated with state-of-the-art observations for clear and cloudy conditions, and (2) determine how the longwave radiative forcing with an improved algorithm contributes relatively in a GCM when compared to shortwave radiative forcing, sensible heating, thermal advection and convection. The approach has been to build upon existing models in an iterative, predictive fashion. We focused on comparing calculations from a set of models with operationally observed data for clear, overcast and broken cloud conditions. The differences found through the comparisons and physical insights have been used to develop new models, most of which have been tested with new data. Our initial GCM studies used existing GCMs to study the climate model-radiation sensitivity problem. Although this portion of our initial plans was curtailed midway through the project, we anticipate that the eventual outcome of this approach will provide both a better longwave radiative forcing algorithm and from our better understanding of how longwave radiative forcing influences the model equilibrium climate, how improvements in climate prediction using this algorithm can be achieved.

  8. Climate-Energy Nexus

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary Sayler; Randall Gentry; Jie Zhuang

    2010-07-01

    The 140-page published proceedings of the workshop include individual articles and PowerPoint slides for all workshop presentations. The proceedings also contain pertinent background information on the China-US Joint Research Center, partnering organizations, and workshop goals and objectives. Overall, the workshop increased the understanding of the impacts of climate change on energy use and renewable energy production as well as the complex relationships among land use, energy production, and ecological restoration. The workshop served as an international platform for scientists and students of different research backgrounds to develop a unified perspective on energy and climate relationships. Such understanding will benefit future cooperation between China and the US in mitigating global climate change. The workshop’s agenda, which is highly interdisciplinary, explored many potential opportunities for international collaboration in ecosystem management, climate modeling, greenhouse gas emissions, and bioenergy sustainability. International research groups have been suggested in the areas of genomes and biotechnology of energy plants, sustainable management of soil and water resources, carbon sequestration, and microbial processes for ecological cycles. The project has attracted considerable attention from institutes beyond the China-US Joint Research Center partners, and several of them (such as Institute of Qing-Tibet Plateau Research, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Institute of Applied Ecology, CAS) have expressed interest in joining the partnership. In addition, the workshop played a significant role in facilitating establishment of private-public partnerships between government and private bioenergy companies (such as L.R. Shugarts and Associates, Inc.), including seed providers (Blade Energy Crops, Thousand Oaks, CA), pilot demonstration projects at coal-producing cities (e.g., Huaibei, Anhui province, China), and the development of methodology for assessment of the sustainable production of biofuels (such as life-cycle analysis, sustainability metrics, and land-use policy). Establishment of two US-China scientific research networks in the area of bioenergy and environmental science is a significant result of the workshop.

  9. Sensitivity of Global Terrestrial Gross Primary Production to Hydrologic States Simulated by the Community Land Model Using Two Runoff Parameterizations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lei, Huimin; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Yang, Dawen; Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Hayes, Daniel J.; Schwalm, C.; Wei, Yaxing; Liu, Shishi

    2014-09-01

    The terrestrial water and carbon cycles interact strongly at various spatio-temporal scales. To elucidate how hydrologic processes may influence carbon cycle processes, differences in terrestrial carbon cycle simulations induced by structural differences in two runoff generation schemes were investigated using the Community Land Model 4 (CLM4). Simulations were performed with runoff generation using the default TOPMODEL-based and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model approaches under the same experimental protocol. The comparisons showed that differences in the simulated gross primary production (GPP) are mainly attributed to differences in the simulated leaf area index (LAI) rather than soil moisture availability. More specifically, differences in runoff simulations can influence LAI through changes in soil moisture, soil temperature, and their seasonality that affect the onset of the growing season and the subsequent dynamic feedbacks between terrestrial water, energy, and carbon cycles. As a result of a relative difference of 36% in global mean total runoff between the two models and subsequent changes in soil moisture, soil temperature, and LAI, the simulated global mean GPP differs by 20.4%. However, the relative difference in the global mean net ecosystem exchange between the two models is small (2.1%) due to competing effects on total mean ecosystem respiration and other fluxes, although large regional differences can still be found. Our study highlights the significant interactions among the water, energy, and carbon cycles and the need for reducing uncertainty in the hydrologic parameterization of land surface models to better constrain carbon cycle modeling.

  10. Final Report: DOE Project: DE-SC-0005399 Linking the uncertainty of low frequency variability in tropical forcing in regional climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Forest, Chris E.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Li, Wei

    2015-02-20

    Final report for DOE Project: DE-SC-0005399 -- Linking the uncertainty of low frequency variability in tropical forcing in regional climate change. The project utilizes multiple atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to examine the regional climate sensitivity to tropical sea surface temperature forcing through a series of ensemble experiments. The overall goal for this work is to use the global teleconnection operator (GTO) as a metric to assess the impact of model structural differences on the uncertainties in regional climate variability.

  11. Climatically Diverse Data Set for Flat-Plate PV Module Model Validations (Presentation), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Climatically Diverse Data Set for Flat-Plate PV Module Model Validations Bill Marion 2013 Sandia PV Performance Modeling Workshop Santa Clara, CA, May 1-2, 2013 NREL/PR-5200-58600 2 Background * Work began in FY2011 to fulfill a FY2014 milestone for DOE's System Integration Technology Validation Project o "Comprehensive data set, with low measurement uncertainty, of I-V curves and associated meteorological data for PV modules representing all flat-plate technologies and for weather

  12. Final Technical Report for Collaborative Research: Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models, DE-FG02-07ER64429

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smyth, Padhraic

    2013-07-22

    This is the final report for a DOE-funded research project describing the outcome of research on non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. The main results consist of extensive development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to downscaling of rainfall projections over India; identification and analysis of decadal climate signals in data and models; and, studies of climate variability in terms of the dynamics of atmospheric flow regimes.

  13. An assessment of possible climate change in the Australian region based on intercomparison of general circulation modeling results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whetton, P.H.; Pittock, A.B.; Haylock, M.R. ); Rayner, P.J. )

    1994-03-01

    To assist in estimating likely future climate change in the Australian region, the authors examine the results of four different general circulation modeling experiments run to assess the equilibrium impact of doubling greenhouse gases. The results examined were the most recent available at the time of study from various research centers in North America and Europe, as well as those of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). The approach used is, first, to assess the quality of the control (1 x CO[sub 2]) simulations from each of the models of mean sea level (MSL) pressure and precipitation in the Australian region by comparing these with the corresponding observed patterns; and, second, to then analyze the 2 x CO[sub 2] results of only those model experiments with the best control simulations. Of the models examined two are chosen on the basis of their simulation of current climate in the region: the CSIRO four-level model (CSIRO4) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) model. For conditions of equivalent doubling of CO[sub 2], both models show substantial increases in surface air temperature of around 4[degrees]-6[degrees] inland and 2[degrees]-4[degrees]C in coastal regions. Both models show decreased MSL pressure over the Australian continent and increases in rainfall over northern, central, and eastern Australia, particularly in the summer half of the year. The CSIRO4 model, but not the UKMO model, also shows increased pressure to the south of the continent and decreased winter rainfall in southwest and southern Australia. Generally, field significance tests show the pattern and magnitude of the changes to be significant of CSIRO4 (for which the necessary monthly simulated data were available). 42 refs., 20 figs., 5 tabs.

  14. climate change | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    climate change Home Graham7781's picture Submitted by Graham7781(2017) Super contributor 18 January, 2013 - 15:46 U.S. Global Change Research Program publishes "National Climate...

  15. Modeling the Oil Transition: A Summary of the Proceedings of the DOE/EPA Workshop on the Economic and Environmental Implications of Global Energy Transitions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greene, David L

    2007-02-01

    The global energy system faces sweeping changes in the next few decades, with potentially critical implications for the global economy and the global environment. It is important that global institutions have the tools necessary to predict, analyze and plan for such massive change. This report summarizes the proceedings of an international workshop concerning methods of forecasting, analyzing, and planning for global energy transitions and their economic and environmental consequences. A specific case, it focused on the transition from conventional to unconventional oil and other energy sources likely to result from a peak in non-OPEC and/or global production of conventional oil. Leading energy models from around the world in government, academia and the private sector met, reviewed the state-of-the-art of global energy modeling and evaluated its ability to analyze and predict large-scale energy transitions.

  16. Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Martinich, Jeremy; Sarofim, Marcus; DeAngelo, B. J.; McFarland, Jim; Jantarasami, Lesley; Shouse, Kate C.; Crimmins, Allison; Ohrel, Sara; Li, Jia

    2015-07-01

    The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) modeling exercise is a unique contribution to the scientific literature on climate change impacts, economic damages, and risk analysis that brings together multiple, national-scale models of impacts and damages in an integrated and consistent fashion to estimate climate change impacts, damages, and the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the United States. The CIRA project uses three consistent socioeconomic, emissions, and climate scenarios across all models to estimate the benefits of GHG mitigation policies: a Business As Usual (BAU) and two policy scenarios with radiative forcing (RF) stabilization targets of 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 in 2100. CIRA was also designed to specifically examine the sensitivity of results to uncertainties around climate sensitivity and differences in model structure. The goals of CIRA project are to 1) build a multi-model framework to produce estimates of multiple risks and impacts in the U.S., 2) determine to what degree risks and damages across sectors may be lowered from a BAU to policy scenarios, 3) evaluate key sources of uncertainty along the causal chain, and 4) provide information for multiple audiences and clearly communicate the risks and damages of climate change and the potential benefits of mitigation. This paper describes the motivations, goals, and design of the CIRA modeling exercise and introduces the subsequent papers in this special issue.

  17. Climate Change Projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mearns, L. O.; Sain, Steve; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; McGinnis, Seth; Biner, S.; Caya, Daniel; Arritt, R.; Gutowski, William; Takle, Eugene S.; Snyder, Mark A.; Jones, Richard; Nunes, A M B.; Tucker, S.; Herzmann, D.; McDaniel, Larry; Sloan, Lisa

    2013-10-01

    We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs.

  18. Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Torn, Margaret S.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison M.; Chini, Louise M.; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter; Hurtt, George; Wise, Marshall A.

    2013-06-01

    Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standard RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCPs, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.

  19. The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) Software Development: Applications, Infrastructure, and Middleware/Networks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Williams, Dean N.

    2011-06-30

    The status of and future plans for the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) hinge on software that PCMDI is either currently distributing or plans to distribute to the climate community in the near future. These software products include standard conventions, national and international federated infrastructures, and community analysis and visualization tools. This report also mentions other secondary software not necessarily led by or developed at PCMDI to provide a complete picture of the overarching applications, infrastructures, and middleware/networks. Much of the software described anticipates the use of future technologies envisioned over the span of next year to 10 years. These technologies, together with the software, will be the catalyst required to address extreme-scale data warehousing, scalability issues, and service-level requirements for a diverse set of well-known projects essential for predicting climate change. These tools, unlike the previous static analysis tools of the past, will support the co-existence of many users in a productive, shared virtual environment. This advanced technological world driven by extreme-scale computing and the data it generates will increase scientists productivity, exploit national and international relationships, and push research to new levels of understanding.

  20. Efficient Screening of Climate Model Sensitivity to a Large Number of Perturbed Input Parameters [plus supporting information

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Covey, Curt; Lucas, Donald D.; Tannahill, John; Garaizar, Xabier; Klein, Richard

    2013-07-01

    Modern climate models contain numerous input parameters, each with a range of possible values. Since the volume of parameter space increases exponentially with the number of parameters N, it is generally impossible to directly evaluate a model throughout this space even if just 2-3 values are chosen for each parameter. Sensitivity screening algorithms, however, can identify input parameters having relatively little effect on a variety of output fields, either individually or in nonlinear combination.This can aid both model development and the uncertainty quantification (UQ) process. Here we report results from a parameter sensitivity screening algorithm hitherto untested in climate modeling,more » the Morris one-at-a-time (MOAT) method. This algorithm drastically reduces the computational cost of estimating sensitivities in a high dimensional parameter space because the sample size grows linearly rather than exponentially with N. It nevertheless samples over much of the N-dimensional volume and allows assessment of parameter interactions, unlike traditional elementary one-at-a-time (EOAT) parameter variation. We applied both EOAT and MOAT to the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), assessing CAM’s behavior as a function of 27 uncertain input parameters related to the boundary layer, clouds, and other subgrid scale processes. For radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere, EOAT and MOAT rank most input parameters similarly, but MOAT identifies a sensitivity that EOAT underplays for two convection parameters that operate nonlinearly in the model. MOAT’s ranking of input parameters is robust to modest algorithmic variations, and it is qualitatively consistent with model development experience. Supporting information is also provided at the end of the full text of the article.« less

  1. Modeling global atmospheric CO2 with improved emission inventories and CO2 production from the oxidation of other carbon species

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nassar, Ray; Jones, DBA; Suntharalingam, P; Chen, j.; Andres, Robert Joseph; Wecht, K. J.; Yantosca, R. M.; Kulawik, SS; Bowman, K; Worden, JR; Machida, T; Matsueda, H

    2010-01-01

    The use of global three-dimensional (3-D) models with satellite observations of CO2 in inverse modeling studies is an area of growing importance for understanding Earth s carbon cycle. Here we use the GEOS-Chem model (version 8-02-01) CO2 mode with multiple modifications in order to assess their impact on CO2 forward simulations. Modifications include CO2 surface emissions from shipping (0.19 PgC yr 1), 3-D spatially-distributed emissions from aviation (0.16 PgC yr 1), and 3-D chemical production of CO2 (1.05 PgC yr 1). Although CO2 chemical production from the oxidation of CO, CH4 and other carbon gases is recognized as an important contribution to global CO2, it is typically accounted for by conversion from its precursors at the surface rather than in the free troposphere. We base our model 3-D spatial distribution of CO2 chemical production on monthly-averaged loss rates of CO (a key precursor and intermediate in the oxidation of organic carbon) and apply an associated surface correction for inventories that have counted emissions of CO2 precursors as CO2. We also explore the benefit of assimilating satellite observations of CO into GEOS-Chem to obtain an observation-based estimate of the CO2 chemical source. The CO assimilation corrects for an underestimate of atmospheric CO abundances in the model, resulting in increases of as much as 24% in the chemical source during May June 2006, and increasing the global annual estimate of CO2 chemical production from 1.05 to 1.18 Pg C. Comparisons of model CO2 with measurements are carried out in order to investigate the spatial and temporal distributions that result when these new sources are added. Inclusion of CO2 emissions from shipping and aviation are shown to increase the global CO2 latitudinal gradient by just over 0.10 ppm (3%), while the inclusion of CO2 chemical production (and the surface correction) is shown to decrease the latitudinal gradient by about 0.40 ppm (10%) with a complex spatial structure generally resulting in decreased CO2 over land and increased CO2 over the oceans. Since these CO2 emissions are omitted or misrepresented in most inverse modeling work to date, their implementation in forward simulations should lead to improved inverse modeling estimates of terrestrial biospheric fluxes.

  2. The effect of climate change, population distribution, and climate...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    energy model, nested in the long-term global integrated assessment framework, Global ... Country of Publication: United States Language: English Word Cloud More Like This Full Text ...

  3. Framework for Probabilistic Projections of Energy-Relevant Streamflow Indicators under Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wagener, Thorsten; Mann, Michael; Crane, Robert

    2014-04-29

    This project focuses on uncertainty in streamflow forecasting under climate change conditions. The objective is to develop easy to use methodologies that can be applied across a range of river basins to estimate changes in water availability for realistic projections of climate change. There are three major components to the project: Empirical downscaling of regional climate change projections from a range of Global Climate Models; Developing a methodology to use present day information on the climate controls on the parameterizations in streamflow models to adjust the parameterizations under future climate conditions (a trading-space-for-time approach); and Demonstrating a bottom-up approach to establishing streamflow vulnerabilities to climate change. The results reinforce the need for downscaling of climate data for regional applications, and further demonstrates the challenges of using raw GCM data to make local projections. In addition, it reinforces the need to make projections across a range of global climate models. The project demonstrates the potential for improving streamflow forecasts by using model parameters that are adjusted for future climate conditions, but suggests that even with improved streamflow models and reduced climate uncertainty through the use of downscaled data, there is still large uncertainty is the streamflow projections. The most useful output from the project is the bottom-up vulnerability driven approach to examining possible climate and land use change impacts on streamflow. Here, we demonstrate an inexpensive and easy to apply methodology that uses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to define the climate and environmental parameters space that can produce vulnerabilities in the system, and then feeds in the downscaled projections to determine the probability top transitioning to a vulnerable sate. Vulnerabilities, in this case, are defined by the end user.

  4. Combined Climate and Carbon-Cycle Effects of Large-Scale Deforestation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Wickett, M; Phillips, T J; Lobell, D B; Delire, C; Mirin, A

    2006-10-17

    The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate. However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These are the first such simulations performed using a fully three-dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-scale deforestation has a net cooling influence on Earth's climate, since the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only marginal benefits in temperate regions. While these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate.

  5. Climate Data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    CDIAC products are indexed and searchable through a customized interface powered by ORNL's Mercury search engine. Products include numeric data packages, publications, trend data, atlases, models, etc. and can be searched for by subject area, keywords, authors, product numbers, time periods, collection sites, spatial references, etc. Some of the collections may also be included in the CDIAC publication Trends Online: A Compendium of Global Change Data. Most data sets, many with numerous data files, are free to download from CDIAC's ftp area. CDIAC lists the following collections under the broad heading of climate information: Global Temperature, Precipitation, Sea Level Pressure, and Station Pressure Data, United States Temperature, Precipitation, and Snow Data, USSR and People's Republic of China Climate Data, Cloud and Sunshine Data, and Other Climatic Data.

  6. Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways in a World with Agricultural Climate Impacts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kyle, G. Page; Mueller, C.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-02-28

    This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed ISI-MIP exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6 W/m2 in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts, simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields.

  7. Life cycle inventory analysis of regenerative thermal oxidation of air emissions from oriented strand board facilities in Minnesota - a perspective of global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nicholson, W.J.

    1997-12-31

    Life cycle inventory analysis has been applied to the prospective operation of regenerative thermal oxidation (RTO) technology at oriented strand board plants at Bemidji (Line 1) and Cook, Minnesota. The net system destruction of VOC`s and carbon monoxide, and at Cook a small quantity of particulate, has a very high environmental price in terms of energy and water use, global warming potential, sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions, solids discharged to water, and solid waste deposited in landfills. The benefit of VOC destruction is identified as minor in terms of ground level ozone at best and possibly slightly detrimental. Recognition of environmental tradeoffs associated with proposed system changes is critical to sound decision-making. There are more conventional ways to address carbon monoxide emissions than combustion in RTO`s. In an environment in which global warming is a concern, fuel supplemental combustion for environmental control does not appear warranted. Consideration of non-combustion approaches to address air emission issues at the two operations is recommended. 1 ref., 5 tabs.

  8. Global and regional modeling of clouds and aerosols in the marine boundary layer during VOCALS: the VOCA intercomparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wyant, M. C.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Wood, Robert; Carmichael, Gregory; Clarke, A. D.; Fast, Jerome D.; George, R.; Gustafson, William I.; Hannay, Cecile; Lauer, Axel; Lin, Yanluan; Morcrette, J. -J.; Mulcahay, Jane; Saide, Pablo; Spak, S. N.; Yang, Qing

    2015-01-09

    A diverse collection of models are used to simulate the marine boundary layer in the southeast Pacific region during the period of the OctoberNovember 2008 VOCALS REx (VAMOS Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study Regional Experiment) field campaign. Regional models simulate the period continuously in boundary-forced free-running mode, while global forecast models and GCMs (general circulation models) are run in forecast mode. The models are compared to extensive observations along a line at 20 S extending westward from the South American coast. Most of the models simulate cloud and aerosol characteristics and gradients across the region that are recognizably similar to observations, despite the complex interaction of processes involved in the problem, many of which are parameterized or poorly resolved. Some models simulate the regional low cloud cover well, though many models underestimate MBL (marine boundary layer) depth near the coast. Most models qualitatively simulate the observed offshore gradients of SO2, sulfate aerosol, CCN (cloud condensation nuclei) concentration in the MBL as well as differences in concentration between the MBL and the free troposphere. Most models also qualitatively capture the decrease in cloud droplet number away from the coast. However, there are large quantitative intermodel differences in both means and gradients of these quantities. Many models are able to represent episodic offshore increases in cloud droplet number and aerosol concentrations associated with periods of offshore flow. Most models underestimate CCN (at 0.1% supersaturation) in the MBL and free troposphere. The GCMs also have difficulty simulating coastal gradients in CCN and cloud droplet number concentration near the coast. The overall performance of the models demonstrates their potential utility in simulating aerosolcloud interactions in the MBL, though quantitative estimation of aerosolcloud interactions and aerosol indirect effects of MBL clouds with these models remains uncertain.

  9. Global and regional modeling of clouds and aerosols in the marine boundary layer during VOCALS: the VOCA intercomparison

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Wyant, M. C.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Wood, Robert; Carmichael, Gregory; Clarke, A. D.; Fast, Jerome D.; George, R.; Gustafson, William I.; Hannay, Cecile; Lauer, Axel; et al

    2015-01-09

    A diverse collection of models are used to simulate the marine boundary layer in the southeast Pacific region during the period of the October–November 2008 VOCALS REx (VAMOS Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study Regional Experiment) field campaign. Regional models simulate the period continuously in boundary-forced free-running mode, while global forecast models and GCMs (general circulation models) are run in forecast mode. The models are compared to extensive observations along a line at 20° S extending westward from the South American coast. Most of the models simulate cloud and aerosol characteristics and gradients across the region that are recognizably similar tomore » observations, despite the complex interaction of processes involved in the problem, many of which are parameterized or poorly resolved. Some models simulate the regional low cloud cover well, though many models underestimate MBL (marine boundary layer) depth near the coast. Most models qualitatively simulate the observed offshore gradients of SO2, sulfate aerosol, CCN (cloud condensation nuclei) concentration in the MBL as well as differences in concentration between the MBL and the free troposphere. Most models also qualitatively capture the decrease in cloud droplet number away from the coast. However, there are large quantitative intermodel differences in both means and gradients of these quantities. Many models are able to represent episodic offshore increases in cloud droplet number and aerosol concentrations associated with periods of offshore flow. Most models underestimate CCN (at 0.1% supersaturation) in the MBL and free troposphere. The GCMs also have difficulty simulating coastal gradients in CCN and cloud droplet number concentration near the coast. The overall performance of the models demonstrates their potential utility in simulating aerosol–cloud interactions in the MBL, though quantitative estimation of aerosol–cloud interactions and aerosol indirect effects of MBL clouds with these models remains uncertain.« less

  10. Temperature-associated increases in the global soil respiration record

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Thomson, Allison M.

    2010-03-25

    Soil respiration (RS), the flux of CO2 from the soil surface to the atmosphere, comprises the second-largest terrestrial carbon flux, but its dynamics are incompletely understood, and the global flux remains poorly constrained. Ecosystem warming experiments, modelling analyses, and biokinetics all suggest that RS should change with climate. This has been difficult to confirm observationally because of the high spatial variability of RS, inaccessibility of the soil medium, and inability of remote sensing instruments to measure large-scale RS fluxes. Given these constraints, is it possible to discern climate-driven changes in regional or global RS fluxes in the extant four-decade record of RS chamber measurements? Here we use a database of worldwide RS observations, matched with high-resolution historical climate data, to show a previously unknown temporal trend in the RS record after accounting for mean annual climate, leaf area, nitrogen deposition, and changes in CO2 measurement technique. Air temperature anomaly (deviation from the 1961-1990 mean) is significantly and positively correlated with changes in RS fluxes; both temperature and precipitation anomalies exert effects in specific biomes. We estimate that the current (2008) annual global RS flux is 9812 Pg and has increased 0.1 Pg yr-1 over the last 20 years, implying a global RS temperature response (Q10) of 1.5. An increasing global RS flux does not necessarily constitute a positive feedback loop to the atmosphere; nonetheless, the available data are consistent with an acceleration of the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to global climate change.

  11. Ecosystem feedbacks to climate change in California: Development, testing, and analysis using a coupled regional atmosphere and land-surface model (WRF3-CLM3.5)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Subin, Z.M.; Riley, W.J.; Kueppers, L.M.; Jin, J.; Christianson, D.S.; Torn, M.S.

    2010-11-01

    A regional atmosphere model [Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3 (WRF3)] and a land surface model [Community Land Model, version 3.5 (CLM3.5)] were coupled to study the interactions between the atmosphere and possible future California land-cover changes. The impact was evaluated on California's climate of changes in natural vegetation under climate change and of intentional afforestation. The ability of WRF3 to simulate California's climate was assessed by comparing simulations by WRF3-CLM3.5 and WRF3-Noah to observations from 1982 to 1991. Using WRF3-CLM3.5, the authors performed six 13-yr experiments using historical and future large-scale climate boundary conditions from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The land-cover scenarios included historical and future natural vegetation from the Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System-Century 1 (MC1) dynamic vegetation model, in addition to a future 8-million-ha California afforestation scenario. Natural vegetation changes alone caused summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature changes of -0.7 to +1 C in regions without persistent snow cover, depending on the location and the type of vegetation change. Vegetation temperature changes were much larger than the 2-m air temperature changes because of the finescale spatial heterogeneity of the imposed vegetation change. Up to 30% of the magnitude of the summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature increase and 70% of the magnitude of the 1600 local time (LT) vegetation temperature increase projected under future climate change were attributable to the climate-driven shift in land cover. The authors projected that afforestation could cause local 0.2-1.2 C reductions in summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature and 2.0-3.7 C reductions in 1600 LT vegetation temperature for snow-free regions, primarily because of increased evapotranspiration. Because some of these temperature changes are of comparable magnitude to those projected under climate change this century, projections of climate and vegetation change in this region need to consider these climate-vegetation interactions.

  12. Global carbon budget 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Peters, G. P.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Jones, S. D.; Sitch, S.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Boden, T. A.; Bopp, L.; Bozec, Y.; Canadell, J. G.; Chini, L. P.; Chevallier, F.; Cosca, C. E.; Harris, I.; Hoppema, M.; Houghton, R. A.; House, J. I.; Jain, A. K.; Johannessen, T.; Kato, E.; Keeling, R. F.; Kitidis, V.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Koven, C.; Landa, C. S.; Landschützer, P.; Lenton, A.; Lima, I. D.; Marland, G.; Mathis, J. T.; Metzl, N.; Nojiri, Y.; Olsen, A.; Ono, T.; Peng, S.; Peters, W.; Pfeil, B.; Poulter, B.; Raupach, M. R.; Regnier, P.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Salisbury, J. E.; Schuster, U.; Schwinger, J.; Séférian, R.; Segschneider, J.; Steinhoff, T.; Stocker, B. D.; Sutton, A. J.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; van der Werf, G. R.; Viovy, N.; Wang, Y.-P.; Wanninkhof, R.; Wiltshire, A.; Zeng, N.

    2015-05-08

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ;, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004–2013), EFF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr⁻¹,ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr⁻¹, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, and SLAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr⁻¹. For year 2013 alone, EFF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr⁻¹, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, and SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr⁻¹. GATM was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in EFF and smaller and opposite changes between SOCEAN and SLAND compared to the past decade (2004–2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.5% (1.3–3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO2 yr⁻¹), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO2) for 1870–2014, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).

  13. Global carbon budget 2014

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Peters, G. P.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Jones, S. D.; Sitch, S.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; et al

    2015-05-08

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissionsmore » from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ;, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004–2013), EFF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr⁻¹,ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr⁻¹, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, and SLAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr⁻¹. For year 2013 alone, EFF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr⁻¹, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, and SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr⁻¹. GATM was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in EFF and smaller and opposite changes between SOCEAN and SLAND compared to the past decade (2004–2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.5% (1.3–3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO2 yr⁻¹), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO2) for 1870–2014, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).« less

  14. Global SO(3) x SO(3) x U(1) symmetry of the Hubbard model on bipartite lattices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carmelo, J.M.P.; Ostlund, Stellan; Sampaio, M.J.

    2010-08-15

    In this paper the global symmetry of the Hubbard model on a bipartite lattice is found to be larger than SO(4). The model is one of the most studied many-particle quantum problems, yet except in one dimension it has no exact solution, so that there remain many open questions about its properties. Symmetry plays an important role in physics and often can be used to extract useful information on unsolved non-perturbative quantum problems. Specifically, here it is found that for on-site interaction U {ne} 0 the local SU(2) x SU(2) x U(1) gauge symmetry of the Hubbard model on a bipartite lattice with N{sub a}{sup D} sites and vanishing transfer integral t = 0 can be lifted to a global [SU(2) x SU(2) x U(1)]/Z{sub 2}{sup 2} = SO(3) x SO(3) x U(1) symmetry in the presence of the kinetic-energy hopping term of the Hamiltonian with t > 0. (Examples of a bipartite lattice are the D-dimensional cubic lattices of lattice constant a and edge length L = N{sub a}a for which D = 1, 2, 3,... in the number N{sub a}{sup D} of sites.) The generator of the new found hidden independent charge global U(1) symmetry, which is not related to the ordinary U(1) gauge subgroup of electromagnetism, is one half the rotated-electron number of singly occupied sites operator. Although addition of chemical-potential and magnetic-field operator terms to the model Hamiltonian lowers its symmetry, such terms commute with it. Therefore, its 4{sup N}{sub a}{sup D} energy eigenstates refer to representations of the new found global [SU(2) x SU(2) x U(1)]/Z{sub 2}{sup 2} = SO(3) x SO(3) x U(1) symmetry. Consistently, we find that for the Hubbard model on a bipartite lattice the number of independent representations of the group SO(3) x SO(3) x U(1) equals the Hilbert-space dimension 4{sup N}{sub a}{sup D}. It is confirmed elsewhere that the new found symmetry has important physical consequences.

  15. Bush Administration Plays Leading Role in Studying and Addressing Global

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Climate Change | Department of Energy Plays Leading Role in Studying and Addressing Global Climate Change Bush Administration Plays Leading Role in Studying and Addressing Global Climate Change February 27, 2007 - 3:49pm Addthis Washington, DC - Continuing to take the lead in addressing global climate change, Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Stephen Johnson, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Administrator Vice

  16. Climate Change: The Physical Basis and Latest Results

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2011-10-06

    The 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes: "Warming in the climate system is unequivocal." Without the contribution of Physics to climate science over many decades, such a statement would not have been possible. Experimental physics enables us to read climate archives such as polar ice cores and so provides the context for the current changes. For example, today the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, the second most important greenhouse gas, is 28% higher than any time during the last 800,000 years. Classical fluid mechanics and numerical mathematics are the basis of climate models from which estimates of future climate change are obtained. But major instabilities and surprises in the Earth System are still unknown. These are also to be considered when the climatic consequences of proposals for geo-engineering are estimated. Only Physics will permit us to further improve our understanding in order to provide the foundation for policy decisions facing the global climate change challenge.

  17. The Brief History and Future Development of Earth System Models:

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Brief History and Future Development of Earth System Models: Resolution and Complexity Warren M. Washington National Center for Atmospheric Research NERSC Lecture Series at Berkeley Lab May, 2014 Overview * Brief history of climate modeling * Brief discussion of computational methods * Environmental Justice connected to climate change * Behind the scenes White House origin of the U. S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) * The future of the USGCRP and National Climate Assessment The next two

  18. Real-time Global Flood Estimation using Satellite-based Precipitation and a Coupled Land Surface and Routing Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, Huan; Adler, Robert F.; Tian, Yudong; Huffman, George; Li, Hongyi; Wang, Jianjian

    2014-04-09

    A community land surface model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, is coupled with a newly developed hierarchical dominant river tracing-based runoff-routing model to form the Dominant river tracing-Routing Integrated with VIC Environment (DRIVE) model system, which serves as the new core of the real-time Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS). The GFMS uses real-time satellite-based precipitation to derive flood-monitoring parameters for the latitude-band 50{degree sign}N-50{degree sign}S at relatively high spatial (~12km) and temporal (3-hourly) resolution. Examples of model results for recent flood events are computed using the real-time GFMS (http://flood.umd.edu). To evaluate the accuracy of the new GFMS, the DRIVE model is run retrospectively for 15 years using both research-quality and real-time satellite precipitation products. Statistical results are slightly better for the research-quality input and significantly better for longer duration events (three-day events vs. one-day events). Basins with fewer dams tend to provide lower false alarm ratios. For events longer than three days in areas with few dams, the probability of detection is ~0.9 and the false alarm ratio is ~0.6. In general, these statistical results are better than those of the previous system. Streamflow was evaluated at 1,121 river gauges across the quasi-global domain. Validation using real-time precipitation across the tropics (30ºS-30ºN) gives positive daily Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficients for 107 out of 375 (28%) stations with a mean of 0.19 and 51% of the same gauges at monthly scale with a mean of 0.33. There were poorer results in higher latitudes, probably due to larger errors in the satellite precipitation input.

  19. Predicting tropospheric ozone and hydroxyl radical in a global, three-dimensional, chemistry, transport, and deposition model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Atherton, C.S.

    1995-01-05

    Two of the most important chemically reactive tropospheric gases are ozone (O{sub 3}) and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Although ozone in the stratosphere is a necessary protector against the sun`s radiation, tropospheric ozone is actually a pollutant which damages materials and vegetation, acts as a respiratory irritant, and is a greenhouse gas. One of the two main sources of ozone in the troposphere is photochemical production. The photochemistry is initiated when hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide (CO) react with nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x} = NO + NO{sub 2}) in the presence of sunlight. Reaction with the hydroxyl radical, OH, is the main sink for many tropospheric gases. The hydroxyl radical is highly reactive and has a lifetime on the order of seconds. Its formation is initiated by the photolysis of tropospheric ozone. Tropospheric chemistry involves a complex, non-linear set of chemical reactions between atmospheric species that vary substantially in time and space. To model these and other species on a global scale requires the use of a global, three-dimensional chemistry, transport, and deposition (CTD) model. In this work, I developed two such three dimensional CTD models. The first model incorporated the chemistry necessary to model tropospheric ozone production from the reactions of nitrogen oxides with carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH{sub 4}). The second also included longer-lived alkane species and the biogenic hydrocarbon isoprene, which is emitted by growing plants and trees. The models` ability to predict a number of key variables (including the concentration of O{sub 3}, OH, and other species) were evaluated. Then, several scenarios were simulated to understand the change in the chemistry of the troposphere since preindustrial times and the role of anthropogenic NO{sub x} on present day conditions.

  20. Impact of Geoengineering Schemes on the Global Hydrological Cycle

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bala, G; Duffy, P; Taylor, K

    2007-12-07

    The rapidly rising CO{sub 2} level in the atmosphere has led to proposals of climate stabilization via 'Geoengineering' schemes that would mitigate climate change by intentionally reducing the solar radiation incident on earth's surface. In this paper, we address the impact of these climate stabilization schemes on the global hydrological cycle, using equilibrium simulations from an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. We show that insolation reductions sufficient to offset global-scale temperature increases lead to a decrease in the intensity of the global hydrologic cycle. This occurs because solar forcing is more effective in driving changes in global mean evaporation than is CO{sub 2} forcing of a similar magnitude. In the model used here, the hydrologic sensitivity, defined as the percentage change in global mean precipitation per degree warming, is 2.4% for solar forcing, but only 1.5% for CO{sub 2} forcing. Although other models and the climate system itself may differ quantitatively from this result, the conclusion can be understood based on simple considerations of the surface energy budget and thus is likely to be robust. Compared to changing temperature by altering greenhouse gas concentrations, changing temperature by varying insolation results in larger changes in net radiative fluxes at the surface; these are compensated by larger changes in latent and sensible heat fluxes. Hence the hydrological cycle is more sensitive to temperature adjustment via changes in insolation than changes in greenhouse gases. This implies that an alteration in solar forcing might offset temperature changes or hydrological changes from greenhouse warming, but could not cancel both at once.

  1. Contributions of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program and the ARM Climate Research Facility to the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    SA Edgerton; LR Roeder

    2008-09-30

    The Earth’s surface temperature is determined by the balance between incoming solar radiation and thermal (or infrared) radiation emitted by the Earth back to space. Changes in atmospheric composition, including greenhouse gases, clouds, and aerosols can alter this balance and produce significant climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tool for quantifying future climate change; however, there remain significant uncertainties in the GCM treatment of clouds, aerosol, and their effects on the Earth’s energy balance. The 2007 assessment (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports a substantial range among GCMs in climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas emissions. The largest contributor to this range lies in how different models handle changes in the way clouds absorb or reflect radiative energy in a changing climate (Solomon et al. 2007). In 1989, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science created the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program within the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) to address scientific uncertainties related to global climate change, with a specific focus on the crucial role of clouds and their influence on the transfer of radiation in the atmosphere. To address this problem, BER has adopted a unique two-pronged approach: * The ARM Climate Research Facility (ACRF), a scientific user facility for obtaining long-term measurements of radiative fluxes, cloud and aerosol properties, and related atmospheric characteristics in diverse climate regimes. * The ARM Science Program, focused on the analysis of ACRF data to address climate science issues associated with clouds, aerosols, and radiation, and to improve GCMs. This report describes accomplishments of the BER ARM Program toward addressing the primary uncertainties related to climate change prediction as identified by the IPCC.

  2. Global warming: A Northwest perspective

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scott, M.J.; Counts, C.A.

    1990-02-01

    The Northwest Power Planning Council convened a symposium in Olympia, Washington, on the subject of global climate change ( the greenhouse effect'') and its potential for affecting the Pacific Northwest. The symposium was organized in response to a need by the Power Council to understand global climate change and its potential impacts on resource planning and fish and wildlife planning for the region, as well as a need to understand national policy developing toward climate change and the Pacific Northwest's role in it. 40 figs., 15 tabs.

  3. Dynamics of Arctic and Sub-Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Circulation: Diagnosis of Mechanisms and Biases Using Data Assimilation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eric T. DeWeaver

    2010-01-19

    This is the final report for DOE grant DE-FG02-07ER64434 to Eric DeWeaver at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. The overall goal of work performed under this grant is to enhance understanding of simulations of present-day climate and greenhouse gas-induced climate change. Enhanced understanding is desirable 1) as a prerequisite for improving simulations; 2) for assessing the credibility of model simulations and their usefulness as tools for decision support; and 3) as a means to identify robust behaviors which commonly occur over a wide range of models, and may yield insights regarding the dominant physical mechanisms which determine mean climate and produce climate change. A furthe objective is to investigate the use of data assimilation as a means for examining and correcting model biases. Our primary focus is on the Arctic, but the scope of the work was expanded to include the global climate system to the extent that research targets of opportunity present themselves. Research performed under the grant falls into five main research areas: 1) a study of data assimilation using an ensemble filter with the atmospheric circulation model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in which both conventional observations and observations of the refraction of radio waves from GPS satellites were used to constrain the atmospheric state of the model; 2) research on the likely future status of polar bears, in which climate model simluations were used to assess the effectiveness of climate change mitigation efforts in preserving the habitat of polar bears, now considered a threatened species under global warming; 3) as assessment of the credibility of Arctic sea ice thickness simulations from climate models; 4) An examination of the persistence and reemergence of Northern Hemisphere sea ice area anomalies in climate model simulations and in observations; 5) An examination of the roles played by changes in net radiation and surface relative humidity in determine the response of the hydrological cycle to global warming.

  4. Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R.; Dixon, R.K.

    1995-12-31

    Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country`s vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations.

  5. Climate Impacts of Ice Nucleation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gettelman, A.; Liu, Xiaohong; Barahona, Donifan; Lohmann, U.; Chen, Chih-Chieh

    2012-10-27

    Several different ice nucleation parameterizations in two different General Circulation Models are used to understand the effects of ice nucleation on the mean climate state, and the climate effect of aerosol perturbations to ice clouds. The simulations have different ice microphysical states that are consistent with the spread of observations. These different states occur from different parameterizations of the ice cloud nucleation processes, and feature different balances of homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation. At reasonable efficiencies, consistent with laboratory measurements and constrained by the global radiative balance, black carbon has a small (-0.06 Wm?2) and not statistically significant climate effect. Indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols on cirrus clouds occur mostly due to increases in homogeneous nucleation fraction as a consequence of anthropogenic sulfur emissions. The resulting ice indirect effects do not seem strongly dependent on the ice micro-physical balance, but are slightly larger for those states with less homogeneous nucleation in the base state. The total ice AIE is estimated at 0.260.09 Wm?2 (1? uncertainty). This represents an offset of 20-30% of the simulated total Aerosol Indirect Effect for ice and liquid clouds.

  6. Global Arrays

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2006-02-23

    The Global Arrays (GA) toolkit provides an efficient and portable “shared-memory” programming interface for distributed-memory computers. Each process in a MIMD parallel program can asynchronously access logical blocks of physically distributed dense multi-dimensional arrays, without need for explicit cooperation by other processes. Unlike other shared-memory environments, the GA model exposes to the programmer the non-uniform memory access (NUMA) characteristics of the high performance computers and acknowledges that access to a remote portion of the sharedmore » data is slower than to the local portion. The locality information for the shared data is available, and a direct access to the local portions of shared data is provided. Global Arrays have been designed to complement rather than substitute for the message-passing programming model. The programmer is free to use both the shared-memory and message-passing paradigms in the same program, and to take advantage of existing message-passing software libraries. Global Arrays are compatible with the Message Passing Interface (MPI).« less

  7. The Role Of Modeling Assumptions And Policy Instruments in Evaluating The Global Implications Of U.S. Biofuel Policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oladosu, Gbadebo A; Kline, Keith L

    2010-01-01

    The primary objective of current U.S. biofuel law the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) is to reduce dependence on imported oil, but the law also requires biofuels to meet carbon emission reduction thresholds relative to petroleum fuels. EISA created a renewable fuel standard with annual targets for U.S. biofuel use that climb gradually from 9 billion gallons per year in 2008 to 36 billion gallons (or about 136 billion liters) of biofuels per year by 2022. The most controversial aspects of the biofuel policy have centered on the global social and environmental implications of its potential land use effects. In particular, there is an ongoing debate about whether indirect land use change (ILUC) make biofuels a net source, rather sink, of carbon emissions. However, estimates of ILUC induced by biofuel production and use can only be inferred through modeling. This paper evaluates how model structure, underlying assumptions, and the representation of policy instruments influence the results of U.S. biofuel policy simulations. The analysis shows that differences in these factors can lead to divergent model estimates of land use and economic effects. Estimates of the net conversion of forests and grasslands induced by U.S. biofuel policy range from 0.09 ha/1000 gallons described in this paper to 0.73 ha/1000 gallons from early studies in the ILUC change debate. We note that several important factors governing LUC change remain to be examined. Challenges that must be addressed to improve global land use change modeling are highlighted.

  8. Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways In this paper, we discuss the results of 2000-2100 simulations with a chemistry-climate model, focusing on

  9. Climatically Diverse Data Set for Flat-Plate PV Module Model Validations (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marion, B.

    2013-05-01

    Photovoltaic (PV) module I-V curves were measured at Florida, Colorado, and Oregon locations to provide data for the validation and development of models used for predicting the performance of PV modules.

  10. Integrated Assessment and the Relation Between Land-Use Change and Climate Change

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Dale, V. H.

    1994-10-07

    Integrated assessment is an approach that is useful in evaluating the consequences of global climate change. Understanding the consequences requires knowledge of the relationship between land-use change and climate change. Methodologies for assessing the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations are considered with reference to a particular case study area: south and southeast Asia. The use of models to evaluate the consequences of climate change on forests must also consider an assessment approach. Each of these points is discussed in the following four sections.

  11. "Big Picture" Process Modeling Tools |GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using process modeling tools to attain cost-effective results for GE customers Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window) Share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Click to share (Opens in new window) Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window) Using process modeling tools to attain cost-effective results for GE customers Jimmy Lopez 2015.03.26 Sometimes, we need to look outside the box to realize the powerful tools we have inside.

  12. Mali-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP-GSP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  13. Integrating Remote Sensing, Field Observations, and Models to Understand Disturbance and Climate Effects on the Carbon Balance of the West Coast U.S.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Warren

    2014-07-03

    As an element of NACP research, the proposed investigation is a two pronged approach that derives and evaluates a regional carbon (C) budget for Oregon, Washington, and California. Objectives are (1) Use multiple data sources, including AmeriFlux data, inventories, and multispectral remote sensing data to investigate trends in carbon storage and exchanges of CO2 and water with variation in climate and disturbance history; (2) Develop and apply regional modeling that relies on these multiple data sources to reduce uncertainty in spatial estimates of carbon storage and NEP, and relative contributions of terrestrial ecosystems and anthropogenic emissions to atmospheric CO2 in the region; (3) Model terrestrial carbon processes across the region, using the Biome-BGC terrestrial ecosystem model, and an atmospheric inverse modeling approach to estimate variation in rate and timing of terrestrial uptake and feedbacks to the atmosphere in response to climate and disturbance.

  14. Integrating Remote Sensing, Field Observations, and Models to Understand Disturbance and Climate Effects on the Carbon Balance of the West Coast U.S., Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beverly E. Law

    2011-10-05

    As an element of NACP research, the proposed investigation is a two pronged approach that derives and evaluates a regional carbon (C) budget for Oregon, Washington, and California. Objectives are (1) Use multiple data sources, including AmeriFlux data, inventories, and multispectral remote sensing data to investigate trends in carbon storage and exchanges of CO2 and water with variation in climate and disturbance history; (2) Develop and apply regional modeling that relies on these multiple data sources to reduce uncertainty in spatial estimates of carbon storage and NEP, and relative contributions of terrestrial ecosystems and anthropogenic emissions to atmospheric CO2 in the region; (3) Model terrestrial carbon processes across the region, using the Biome-BGC terrestrial ecosystem model, and an atmospheric inverse modeling approach to estimate variation in rate and timing of terrestrial uptake and feedbacks to the atmosphere in response to climate and disturbance.

  15. 2012 Community Earth System Model (CESM) Tutorial - Proposal to DOE

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Conference) | SciTech Connect Conference: 2012 Community Earth System Model (CESM) Tutorial - Proposal to DOE Citation Details In-Document Search Title: 2012 Community Earth System Model (CESM) Tutorial - Proposal to DOE The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is a fully-coupled, global climate model that provides state-of-the-art computer simulations of the Earth's past, present, and future climate states. This document provides the agenda and list of participants for the conference. Web

  16. Signal and noise in global warming detection. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    North, G.R.

    1998-11-01

    The specific objectives of this study were the following: (1) What is the expected sampling error and bias incurred in estimation of the global average temperature from a finite number of point gauges? (2) What is the best one can do by optimally arranging N point gauges, how can one make best use of existing data at N point gauges by optimally weighting them? (3) What is a good estimation of the signal of global warming based upon simple models of the climate system? (4) How does one develop an optimal signal detection technique from the knowledge of signal and noise?

  17. Global warming and changes in ocean circulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Duffy, P.B.; Caldeira, K.C.

    1998-02-01

    This final report provides an overview of the goals and accomplishments of this project. Modeling and observational work has raised the possibility that global warming may cause changes in the circulation of the ocean. If such changes would occur they could have important climatic consequences. The first technical goal of this project was to investigate some of these possible changes in ocean circulation in a quantitative way, using a state-of -the-art numerical model of the ocean. Another goal was to develop our ocean model, a detailed three-dimensional numerical model of the ocean circulation and ocean carbon cycles. A major non-technical goal was to establish LLNL as a center of excellence in modelling the ocean circulation and carbon cycle.

  18. ARM Climate Research Facility Annual Report 2004

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voyles, J.

    2004-12-31

    Like a rock that slowly wears away beneath the pressure of a waterfall, planet earth?s climate is almost imperceptibly changing. Glaciers are getting smaller, droughts are lasting longer, and extreme weather events like fires, floods, and tornadoes are occurring with greater frequency. Why? Part of the answer is clouds and the amount of solar radiation they reflect or absorb. These two factors clouds and radiative transfer represent the greatest source of error and uncertainty in the current generation of general circulation models used for climate research and simulation. The U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 established an interagency program within the Executive Office of the President to coordinate U.S. agency-sponsored scientific research designed to monitor, understand, and predict changes in the global environment. To address the need for new research on clouds and radiation, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) established the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. As part of the DOE?s overall Climate Change Science Program, a primary objective of the ARM Program is improved scientific understanding of the fundamental physics related to interactions between clouds and radiative feedback processes in the atmosphere.

  19. Evaluating Global Aerosol Models and Aerosol and Water Vapor Properties Near Clouds

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Richard A. Ferrare; David D. Turner

    2011-09-01

    Project goals: (1) Use the routine surface and airborne measurements at the ARM SGP site, and the routine surface measurements at the NSA site, to continue our evaluations of model aerosol simulations; (2) Determine the degree to which the Raman lidar measurements of water vapor and aerosol scattering and extinction can be used to remotely characterize the aerosol humidification factor; (3) Use the high temporal resolution CARL data to examine how aerosol properties vary near clouds; and (4) Use the high temporal resolution CARL and Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) data to quantify entrainment in optically thin continental cumulus clouds.

  20. A Large-Scale, High-Resolution Hydrological Model Parameter Data Set for Climate Change Impact Assessment for the Conterminous US

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oubeidillah, Abdoul A; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Naz, Bibi S; Tootle, Glenn

    2014-01-01

    To extend geographical coverage, refine spatial resolution, and improve modeling efficiency, a computation- and data-intensive effort was conducted to organize a comprehensive hydrologic dataset with post-calibrated model parameters for hydro-climate impact assessment. Several key inputs for hydrologic simulation including meteorologic forcings, soil, land class, vegetation, and elevation were collected from multiple best-available data sources and organized for 2107 hydrologic subbasins (8-digit hydrologic units, HUC8s) in the conterminous United States at refined 1/24 (~4 km) spatial resolution. Using high-performance computing for intensive model calibration, a high-resolution parameter dataset was prepared for the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC simulation was driven by DAYMET daily meteorological forcing and was calibrated against USGS WaterWatch monthly runoff observations for each HUC8. The results showed that this new parameter dataset may help reasonably simulate runoff at most US HUC8 subbasins. Based on this exhaustive calibration effort, it is now possible to accurately estimate the resources required for further model improvement across the entire conterminous United States. We anticipate that through this hydrologic parameter dataset, the repeated effort of fundamental data processing can be lessened, so that research efforts can emphasize the more challenging task of assessing climate change impacts. The pre-organized model parameter dataset will be provided to interested parties to support further hydro-climate impact assessment.