Sample records for global climate modeling

  1. ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' scientific report ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' Team

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' scientific report ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' Team) : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 6 2.2 Anthropogenic climate change studies: scenario experiments (96) : : : : : : : : : 7 2 following its creation, the ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' team had to make its proofs in order

  2. ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' scientific report 1 ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' Team

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ``Climate Modelling & Global Change'' scientific report 1 ``Climate Modelling & Global Change of the tropical climate : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 6 2.2 Short­term variability studies : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 8 2.3 Climate drift sensitivity studies

  3. Sandia Energy - Global Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Scienceand RequirementsCoatingsUltra-High-Voltage SiliconEnergyFailureGlobal Climate Models Home

  4. Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models Berkeley Lab Researcher Says Climate Science is Entering New...

  5. Comments on: Global Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625govInstrumentstdmadapInactiveVisiting the TWPSuccessAlamosCharacterization2Climate,CobaltColdin679April

  6. Parameterization of Urban Characteristics for Global Climate Modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jackson, Trisha L.

    2011-10-31T23:59:59.000Z

    of varying scales and effects of climate change on urban populations, urbanization must be included in global climate models (GCMs). To properly capture the spatial variability in urban areas, GCMs require global databases of urban extent and characteristics...

  7. RICCI Sophie Global Change and Climate Modeling Team

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    RICCI Sophie Global Change and Climate Modeling Team CERFACS - Toulouse, FRANCE Technical Report TR covariance matrix#17;. This hypothesis stems from the T S water mass properties conservation over long term

  8. Climate Models from the Joint Global Change Research Institute

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Staff at the Joint Institute develop and use models to simulate the economic and physical impacts of global change policy options. The GCAM, for example, gives analysts insight into how regional and national economies might respond to climate change mitigation policies including carbon taxes, carbon trading, and accelerated deployment of energy technology. Three available models are Phoenix, GCAM, and EPIC. Phoenix is a global, dynamic recursive, computable general equilibrium model that is solved in five-year time steps from 2005 through 2100 and divides the world into twenty-four regions. Each region includes twenty-six industrial sectors. Particular attention is paid to energy production in Phoenix. There are nine electricity-generating technologies (coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal) and four additional energy commodities: crude oil, refined oil products, coal, and natural gas. Phoenix is designed to answer economic questions related to international climate and energy policy and international trade. Phoenix replaces the Second Generation Model (SGM) that was formerly used for general equilibrium analysis at JGCRI. GCAM is the Global Change Assessment Model, a partial equilibrium model of the world with 14 regions. GCAM operates in 5 year time steps from 1990 to 2095 and is designed to examine long-term changes in the coupled energy, agriculture/land-use, and climate system. GCAM includes a 151-region agriculture land-use module and a reduced form carbon cycle and climate module in addition to its incorporation of demographics, resources, energy production and consumption. The model has been used extensively in a number of assessment and modeling activities such as the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and IPCC assessment reports. GCAM is now freely available as a community model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) Model is a process-based agricultural systems model composed of simulation components for weather, hydrology, nutrient cycling, pesticide fate, tillage, crop growth, soil erosion, crop and soil management and economics. Staff at PNNL have been involved in the development of this model by integrating new sub-models for soil carbon dynamics and nitrogen cycling.

  9. A Vast Machine Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A Vast Machine Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming Paul N. Edwards models, climate data, and the politics of global warming / Paul N. Edwards. p. cm. Includes. Climatology--History. 3. Meteorology--History. 4. Climatology--Technological innovation. 5. Global temperature

  10. Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dommenget, Dietmar

    Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model Dietmar on the surface energy balance by very simple repre- sentations of solar and thermal radiation, the atmospheric and cold regions to warm more than other regions. Keywords Climate dynamics Á Climate change Á Climate

  11. Impact of emissions, chemistry, and climate on atmospheric carbon monoxide : 100-year predictions from a global chemistry-climate model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Chien.; Prinn, Ronald G.

    The possible trends for atmospheric carbon monoxide in the next 100 yr have been illustrated using a coupled atmospheric chemistry and climate model driven by emissions predicted by a global economic development model. ...

  12. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  13. Intercomparison of the Cloud Water Phase among Global Climate Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Komurcu, Muge; Storelvmo, Trude; Tan, Ivy; Lohmann, U.; Yun, Yuxing; Penner, Joyce E.; Wang, Yong; Liu, Xiaohong; Takemura, T.

    2014-03-27T23:59:59.000Z

    Mixed-phase clouds (clouds that consist of both cloud droplets and ice crystals) are frequently present in the Earth’s atmosphere and influence the Earth’s energy budget through their radiative properties, which are highly dependent on the cloud water phase. In this study, the phase partitioning of cloud water is compared among six global climate models (GCMs) and with Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization retrievals. It is found that the GCMs predict vastly different distributions of cloud phase for a given temperature, and none of them are capable of reproducing the spatial distribution or magnitude of the observed phase partitioning. While some GCMs produced liquid water paths comparable to satellite observations, they all failed to preserve sufficient liquid water at mixed-phase cloud temperatures. Our results suggest that validating GCMs using only the vertically integrated water contents could lead to amplified differences in cloud radiative feedback. The sensitivity of the simulated cloud phase in GCMs to the choice of heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization is also investigated. The response to a change in ice nucleation is quite different for each GCM, and the implementation of the same ice nucleation parameterization in all models does not reduce the spread in simulated phase among GCMs. The results suggest that processes subsequent to ice nucleation are at least as important in determining phase and should be the focus of future studies aimed at understanding and reducing differences among the models.

  14. An examination of urban heat island characteristics in a global climate model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oleson, Keith W.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Feddema, Johannes J.; Jackson, Trisha L.

    2010-07-27T23:59:59.000Z

    A parameterization for urban surfaces has been incorporated into the Community Land Model as part of the Community Climate System Model. The parameterization allows global simulation of the urban environment, in particular the temperature of cities...

  15. Sandia National Laboratories: Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    20, 2013, in Advanced Materials Laboratory, Energy Efficiency, Facilities, Global Climate & Energy, Materials Science, Modeling, Modeling & Analysis, Partnership, Research &...

  16. Why are climate models reproducing the observed global surface warming so well?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischlin, Andreas

    Why are climate models reproducing the observed global surface warming so well? Reto Knutti1 global surface warming so well?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L18704, doi:10.1029/ 2008GL034932. 1 models reproduce the observed surface warming better than one would expect given the uncertainties

  17. Sandia National Laboratories: Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Rates of Second Key Atmospheric Component On May 1, 2013, in Analysis, Capabilities, Climate, CRF, Energy, Facilities, Global Climate & Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News &...

  18. ENERGY INVESTMENTS UNDER CLIMATE POLICY: A COMPARISON OF GLOBAL MODELS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCollum, David; Nagai, Yu; Riahi, Keywan; Marangoni, Giacomo; Calvin, Katherine V.; Pietzcker, Robert; Van Vliet, Jasper; van der Zwaan, Bob

    2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The levels of investment needed to mobilize an energy system transformation and mitigate climate change are not known with certainty. This paper aims to inform the ongoing dialogue and in so doing to guide public policy and strategic corporate decision making. Within the framework of the LIMITS integrated assessment model comparison exercise, we analyze a multi-IAM ensemble of long-term energy and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Our study provides insight into several critical but uncertain areas related to the future investment environment, for example in terms of where capital expenditures may need to flow regionally, into which sectors they might be concentrated, and what policies could be helpful in spurring these financial resources. We find that stringent climate policies consistent with a 2°C climate change target would require a considerable upscaling of investments into low-carbon energy and energy efficiency, reaching approximately $45 trillion (range: $30–$75 trillion) cumulative between 2010 and 2050, or about $1.1 trillion annually. This represents an increase of some $30 trillion ($10–$55 trillion), or $0.8 trillion per year, beyond what investments might otherwise be in a reference scenario that assumes the continuation of present and planned emissions-reducing policies throughout the world. In other words, a substantial "clean-energy investment gap" of some $800 billion/yr exists — notably on the same order of magnitude as present-day subsidies for fossil energy and electricity worldwide ($523 billion). Unless the gap is filled rather quickly, the 2°C target could potentially become out of reach.

  19. Global climatic catastrophes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Budyko, M.I.; Golitsyn, G.S.; Izrael, A

    1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This work inquires into global climatic catastrophes of the past, presenting data not easily available outside of the Socialist Countries, and applies these results to the study of future climatic developments, especially as they threaten in case of Nuclear Warfare - Nuclear Winter. The authors discuss probable after effects from the Soviet point of view on the basis of research, stressing the need to avoid all conflict which might lead to the next and final Global Climatic Catastrophy.

  20. Global vegetation model diversity and the risks of climate-driven ecosystem shifts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2013-11-08T23:59:59.000Z

    Climate change is modifying global biogeochemical cycles, and is expected to exert increasingly large effects in the future. How these changes will in turn affect and interact with the structure and function of particular ecosystems is unclear, however, both because of scientific uncertainties and the very diversity of global vegetation models in use. Writing in Environmental Research Letters, Warszawski et al. (1) aggregate results from a group of models, across a range of emissions scenarios and climate data, to investigate these risks. Although the models frequently disagree about which specific regions are at risk, they consistently predict a greater chance of ecosystem restructuring with more warming; this risk roughly doubles between 2 and 3 °C increases in global mean temperature. The innovative work of Warszawski et al. represents an important first step towards fully consistent multi-model, multi-scenario assessments of the future risks to global ecosystems.

  1. Integrating chemistry into 3D climate models: Detailed kinetics in the troposphere and stratosphere of a global climate model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kao, C.Y.J.; Elliott, S. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Earth and Environmental Sciences Div.; Turco, R.P.; Zhao, X. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    1997-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The motivation for the project is to create the first complete, three-dimensional climate model that enfolds atmospheric photochemistry. The LANL chemical global climate model (GCM) not only distributes the trace greenhouse gases and modifies their concentrations within the detailed photochemical web, but also permits them to influence the radiation field and so force their own transport. Both atmospheric chemistry and fluid dynamics are nonlinear and zonally asymmetric phenomena. They can only be adequately modeled in three dimensions on the global grid. The kinetics-augmented GCM is the only program within the atmospheric community capable of investigating interaction involving chemistry and transport. The authors have conducted case studies of timely three-dimensional chemistry issues. Examples include ozone production from biomass burning plumes, kinetic feedbacks in zonally asymmetric transport phenomena with month- to year-long time scales, and volcano sulfate aerosols with respect to their potential effects on tropospheric ozone depletion.

  2. Moisture Flux Convergence in Regional and Global Climate Models: Implications for Droughts in the Southwestern United States Under Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gao, Yanhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Salathe, E.; Dominguez, Francina; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-05-10T23:59:59.000Z

    The water cycle of the southwestern United States (SW) is dominated by winter storms that maintain a positive annual net precipitation. Analysis of the control and future climate from four pairs of regional and global climate models (RCMs and GCMs) shows that the RCMs simulate a higher fraction of transient eddy moisture fluxes because the hydrodynamic instabilities associated with flow over complex terrain are better resolved. Under global warming, this enables the RCMs to capture the response of transient eddies to increased atmospheric stability that allows more moisture to converge on the windward side of the mountains by blocking. As a result, RCMs simulate enhanced transient eddy moisture convergence in the SW compared to GCMs, although both robustly simulate drying due to enhanced moisture divergence by the divergent mean flow in a warmer climate. This enhanced convergence leads to reduced susceptibility to hydrological change in the RCMs compared to GCMs.

  3. YEAR PROGRESS REPORT TITLE: Global Modeling of Tropospheric Aerosols and Their Contribution to Climate Variation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    as CCN would cool the climate system by about ­1.16 W m-2 , while carbonaceous aerosols from fossil fuel combustion acting alone may cool the system by about ­0.52 W m-2 (see Table 1). However, because-1- GACP 2nd YEAR PROGRESS REPORT TITLE: Global Modeling of Tropospheric Aerosols

  4. Accounting for Global Climate Model Projection Uncertainty in Modern Statistical Downscaling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johannesson, G

    2010-03-17T23:59:59.000Z

    Future climate change has emerged as a national and a global security threat. To carry out the needed adaptation and mitigation steps, a quantification of the expected level of climate change is needed, both at the global and the regional scale; in the end, the impact of climate change is felt at the local/regional level. An important part of such climate change assessment is uncertainty quantification. Decision and policy makers are not only interested in 'best guesses' of expected climate change, but rather probabilistic quantification (e.g., Rougier, 2007). For example, consider the following question: What is the probability that the average summer temperature will increase by at least 4 C in region R if global CO{sub 2} emission increases by P% from current levels by time T? It is a simple question, but one that remains very difficult to answer. It is answering these kind of questions that is the focus of this effort. The uncertainty associated with future climate change can be attributed to three major factors: (1) Uncertainty about future emission of green house gasses (GHG). (2) Given a future GHG emission scenario, what is its impact on the global climate? (3) Given a particular evolution of the global climate, what does it mean for a particular location/region? In what follows, we assume a particular GHG emission scenario has been selected. Given the GHG emission scenario, the current batch of the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is used to simulate future climate under this scenario, yielding an ensemble of future climate projections (which reflect, to some degree our uncertainty of being able to simulate future climate give a particular GHG scenario). Due to the coarse-resolution nature of the GCM projections, they need to be spatially downscaled for regional impact assessments. To downscale a given GCM projection, two methods have emerged: dynamical downscaling and statistical (empirical) downscaling (SDS). Dynamic downscaling involves configuring and running a regional climate model (RCM) nested within a given GCM projection (i.e., the GCM provides bounder conditions for the RCM). On the other hand, statistical downscaling aims at establishing a statistical relationship between observed local/regional climate variables of interest and synoptic (GCM-scale) climate predictors. The resulting empirical relationship is then applied to future GCM projections. A comparison of the pros and cons of dynamical versus statistical downscaling is outside the scope of this effort, but has been extensively studied and the reader is referred to Wilby et al. (1998); Murphy (1999); Wood et al. (2004); Benestad et al. (2007); Fowler et al. (2007), and references within those. The scope of this effort is to study methodology, a statistical framework, to propagate and account for GCM uncertainty in regional statistical downscaling assessment. In particular, we will explore how to leverage an ensemble of GCM projections to quantify the impact of the GCM uncertainty in such an assessment. There are three main component to this effort: (1) gather the necessary climate-related data for a regional SDS study, including multiple GCM projections, (2) carry out SDS, and (3) assess the uncertainty. The first step is carried out using tools written in the Python programming language, while analysis tools were developed in the statistical programming language R; see Figure 1.

  5. Agriculture and Climate Change in Global Scenarios: Why Don't the Models Agree

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Gerald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Calvin, Katherine V.; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; Mueller, C.; Reilly, J. M.; Robertson, Richard; Sands, Ronald; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs makes direct use of weather inputs. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes of key variables such as prices, production, and trade. These divergent outcomes arise from differences in model inputs and model specification. The goal of this paper is to review climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By providing common productivity drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes are reduced. All models show higher prices in 2050 because of negative productivity shocks from climate change. The magnitude of the price increases, and the adaptation responses, differ significantly across the various models. Substantial differences exist in the structural parameters affecting demand, area, and yield, and should be a topic for future research.

  6. Sandia National Laboratories: Accelerated Climate Modeling for...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy New Project Is the ACME of Computer Science to Address Climate Change On December 3, 2014, in Analysis, Climate, Global Climate & Energy,...

  7. The Thermodynamic Influence of Subgrid Orography in a Global Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghan, Steven J.; Bian, Xindi; Hunt, Allen G.; Coleman, Andre M.

    2002-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Assessments of the impacts of climate change typically require information at scales of 10 km or less. Such a resolution will not be achieved by global climate models for many years. We have developed an alternative to explicit resolution that can meet the needs of climate change impact assessment now. We have applied to a global climate model a physically-based subgrid-scale treatment of the influence of orography on temperature, clouds, precipitation, and land surface hydrology. The treatment represents subgrid variations in surface elevation in terms of fractional area distributions of discrete elevation classes. For each class it calculates the height rise/descent of air parcels traveling through the grid cell, and applies the influence of the rise/descent to the temperature and humidity profiles of the elevation class. Cloud, radiative, and surface processes are calculated separately for each elevation class using the same physical parameterizations used by the model without the subgrid parameterization. The simulated climate fields for each elevation class can then be distributed in post-processing according to the spatial distribution of surface elevation within each grid cell. Parallel 10-year simulations with and without the subgrid treatment have been performed. The simulated temperature, precipitation and snow water are mapped to 2.5 minute (~5 km) resolution and compared with gridded analyses of station measurements. The simulation with the subgrid scheme produces a much more realistic distribution of snow water and significantly more realistic distributions of temperature and precipitation than the simulation without the subgrid scheme. Moreover, the grid cell means of most other fields are virtually unchanged by the subgrid scheme. This suggests that the tuning of the climate model without the subgrid scheme is also applicable to the model with the scheme.

  8. Climate change and agriculture : global and regional effects using an economic model of international trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reilly, John M.

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Empirical estimates of the economic welfare implications of the impact of climate change on global agricultural production are made. Agricultural yield changes resulting from climate scenarios associated with a doubling ...

  9. Global Climate & Catastrophic Risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    Global Climate & Catastrophic Risk Forum 2012 A Joint Program with LA RIMS Education Day Rethinking Catastrophic Risk in Risk Management: Earthquake-Related Challenges Featuring: Keynote Speaker Dr. Frank Beuthin, Willis Group Holdings Plc. Yohei Miyamoto, Aon Risk Solutions Curtis deVera, Marsh

  10. Voronoi Tessellations and Their Application to Climate and Global Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ju, Lili [University of South Carolina; Ringler, Todd [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Gunzburger, Max [Florida State University

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We review the use of Voronoi tessellations for grid generation, especially on the whole sphere or in regions on the sphere. Voronoi tessellations and the corresponding Delaunay tessellations in regions and surfaces on Euclidean space are defined and properties they possess that make them well-suited for grid generation purposes are discussed, as are algorithms for their construction. This is followed by a more detailed look at one very special type of Voronoi tessellation, the centroidal Voronoi tessellation (CVT). After defining them, discussing some of their properties, and presenting algorithms for their construction, we illustrate the use of CVTs for producing both quasi-uniform and variable resolution meshes in the plane and on the sphere. Finally, we briefly discuss the computational solution of model equations based on CVTs on the sphere.

  11. Assessing the Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Pacific Storm Track Using a Multiscale Global Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan; Molina, Mario J.

    2014-05-13T23:59:59.000Z

    Atmospheric aerosols impact weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track using a multi-scale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and pre-industrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by - 2.5 and + 1.3 W m-2, respectively, by emission changes from pre-industrial to present day, and an increased cloud-top height indicates invigorated mid-latitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides for the first time a global perspective of the impacts of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multi-scale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on the global scale.

  12. Collaborative Proposal: Transforming How Climate System Models are Used: A Global, Multi-Resolution Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Estep, Donald

    2013-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Despite the great interest in regional modeling for both weather and climate applications, regional modeling is not yet at the stage that it can be used routinely and effectively for climate modeling of the ocean. The overarching goal of this project is to transform how climate models are used by developing and implementing a robust, efficient, and accurate global approach to regional ocean modeling. To achieve this goal, we will use theoretical and computational means to resolve several basic modeling and algorithmic issues. The first task is to develop techniques for transitioning between parameterized and high-fidelity regional ocean models as the discretization grid transitions from coarse to fine regions. The second task is to develop estimates for the error in scientifically relevant quantities of interest that provide a systematic way to automatically determine where refinement is needed in order to obtain accurate simulations of dynamic and tracer transport in regional ocean models. The third task is to develop efficient, accurate, and robust time-stepping schemes for variable spatial resolution discretizations used in regional ocean models of dynamics and tracer transport. The fourth task is to develop frequency-dependent eddy viscosity finite element and discontinuous Galerkin methods and study their performance and effectiveness for simulation of dynamics and tracer transport in regional ocean models. These four projects share common difficulties and will be approach using a common computational and mathematical toolbox. This is a multidisciplinary project involving faculty and postdocs from Colorado State University, Florida State University, and Penn State University along with scientists from Los Alamos National Laboratory. The completion of the tasks listed within the discussion of the four sub-projects will go a long way towards meeting our goal of developing superior regional ocean models that will transform how climate system models are used.

  13. A High-Resolution Global Climate Simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Duffy, P B

    2001-01-23T23:59:59.000Z

    A major factor limiting the quality and usefulness of global climate models is the coarse spatial resolution of these models. Global climate models today are typically run at resolutions of {approx}300 km (or even coarser) meaning that the smallest features represented are 300 km across. As Figure 1 shows, this resolution does not allow adequate representation of small or even large topographic features (e.g. the Sierra Nevada mountains). As a result of this and other problems, coarse-resolution global models do not come close to accurately simulating climate on regional spatial scales (e.g. within California). Results on continental and larger sales are much more realistic. An important consequence of this inability to simulate regional climate is that global climate model results cannot be used as the basis of assessments of potential societal impacts of climate change (e.g. effects on agriculture in the Central Valley, on management of water resources, etc.).

  14. Conservation and Global Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Landweber, Laura

    V.6 Conservation and Global Climate Change Diane M. Debinski and Molly S. Cross OUTLINE 1. Introduction 2. How climate is changing 3. Environmental responses to climate change 4. Consequences of climate the coming decades will be preserving biodiversity in the face of climate change. It has become increasingly

  15. Global Climate Change Impacts:Global Climate Change Impacts: Implications for Climate EngineeringImplications for Climate Engineering

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Polz, Martin

    Global Climate Change Impacts:Global Climate Change Impacts: Implications for Climate Engineering Center Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States October 29, 2009 #12;2Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States 2 Response Strategies to ClimateResponse Strategies to Climate ChangeChange

  16. Evaluating Clouds, Aerosols, and their Interactions in Three Global Climate Models using COSP and Satellite Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ban-Weiss, George; Jin, Ling; Bauer, S.; Bennartz, Ralph; Liu, Xiaohong; Zhang, Kai; Ming, Yi; Guo, Huan; Jiang, Jonathan

    2014-09-23T23:59:59.000Z

    Accurately representing aerosol-cloud interactions in global climate models is challenging. As parameterizations evolve, it is important to evaluate their performance with appropriate use of observations. In this work we compare aerosols, clouds, and their interactions in three climate models (AM3, CAM5, ModelE) to MODIS satellite observations. Modeled cloud properties were diagnosed using the CFMIP Observations Simulator Package (COSP). Cloud droplet number concentrations (N) were derived using the same algorithm for both satellite-simulated model values and observations. We find that aerosol optical depth tau simulated by models is similar to observations. For N, AM3 and CAM5 capture the observed spatial pattern of higher values in near-coast versus remote ocean regions, though modeled values in general are higher than observed. In contrast, ModelE simulates lower N in most near-coast versus remote regions. Aerosol- cloud interactions were computed as the sensitivity of N to tau for marine liquid clouds off the coasts of South Africa and Eastern Asia where aerosol pollution varies in time. AM3 and CAM5 are in most cases more sensitive than observations, while the sensitivity for ModelE is statistically insignificant. This widely used sensitivity could be subject to misinterpretation due to the confounding influence of meteorology on both aerosols and clouds. A simple framework for assessing the N – tau sensitivity at constant meteorology illustrates that observed sensitivity can change from positive to statistically insignificant when including the confounding influence of relative humidity. Satellite simulated values of N were compared to standard model output and found to be higher with a bias of 83 cm-3.

  17. Electric Vehicles Global Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sóbester, András

    Hot Topics Electric Vehicles Global Climate Change Green Building Hydraulic Fracturing Nuclear to global warming. The UKgovernment has just announced it is investing $1 billion in their development Green Living Industry Regulation Remediation Research and Technology Sustainability Waste Water Products

  18. Global air quality and climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Evaluation of Chemistry- Climate Models 5, 2010. 320 S. Wu,and R. Van Dorland, in Climate Change 2007: The PhysicalInter- governmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. D. Qin, M.

  19. An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model ...

  20. Global well-posedness of strong solutions to a tropical climate model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Jinkai

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, we consider the Cauchy problem to the TROPIC CLIMATE MODEL derived by Frierson-Majda-Pauluis in [Comm. Math. Sci, Vol. 2 (2004)] which is a coupled system of the barotropic and the first baroclinic modes of the velocity and the typical midtropospheric temperature. The system considered in this paper has viscosities in the momentum equations, but no diffusivity in the temperature equation. We establish here the global well-posedness of strong solutions to this model. In proving the global existence of strong solutions, to overcome the difficulty caused by the absence of the diffusivity in the temperature equation, we introduce a new velocity $w$ (called the pseudo baroclinic velocity), which has more regularities than the original baroclinic mode of the velocity. An auxiliary function $\\phi$, which looks like the effective viscous flux for the compressible Navier-Stokes equations, is also introduced to obtain the $L^\\infty$ bound of the temperature. Regarding the uniqueness, we use the idea of p...

  1. The Role of Stratification-Dependent Mixing for the Stability of the Atlantic Overturning in a Global Climate Model*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marzeion, Ben

    in a Global Climate Model* BEN MARZEION Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, and Bjerknes Centre oceanic heat transport. Subsequently, and in opposition to results from previous studies, the overturning, as seen, for example, in temperature reconstructions from Greenland ice cores, are often ex- plained

  2. Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tavoni, Massimo; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Aboumahboub, Tino; Bowen, Alex; Calvin, Katherine V.; Campiglio, Emanuele; Kober, Tom; Jewell, Jessica; Luderer, Gunnar; Marangoni, Giacomo; McCollum, David; van Sluisveld, Mariesse; Zimmer, Anne; van der Zwaan, Bob

    2014-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Integrated assessment models can help in quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. This paper reviews scenario results from model intercomparison projects to explore different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to the 2°C target. We provide key information for all the major economies, such as the year of emission peaking, regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. We highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.

  3. Global climatic change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houghton, R.A.; Woodwell, G.M.

    1989-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper reviews the climatic effects of trace gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. It discusses the expected changes from the increases in trace gases and the extent to which the expected changes can be found in the climate record and in the retreat of glaciers. The use of ice cores in correlating atmospheric composition and climate is discussed. The response of terrestrial ecosystems as a biotic feedback is discussed. Possible responses are discussed, including reduction in fossil-fuel use, controls on deforestation, and reforestation. International aspects, such as the implications for developing nations, are addressed.

  4. Global distribution and climate forcing of marine organic aerosol: 1. Model improvements and evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meskhidze, N.; Xu, J.; Gantt, Brett; Zhang, Yang; Nenes, Athanasios; Ghan, Steven J.; Liu, Xiaohong; Easter, Richard C.; Zaveri, Rahul A.

    2011-11-23T23:59:59.000Z

    Marine organic aerosol emissions have been implemented and evaluated within the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR)'s Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's 7-mode Modal Aerosol Module (MAM-7). Emissions of marine primary organic aerosols (POA), phytoplanktonproduced isoprene- and monoterpenes-derived secondary organic aerosols (SOA) and methane sulfonate (MS{sup -}) are shown to affect surface concentrations of organic aerosols in remote marine regions. Global emissions of submicron marine POA is estimated to be 7.9 and 9.4 Tg yr{sup -1}, for the Gantt et al. (2011) and Vignati et al. (2010) emission parameterizations, respectively. Marine sources of SOA and particulate MS{sup -} (containing both sulfur and carbon atoms) contribute an additional 0.2 and 5.1 Tg yr{sup -1}, respectively. Widespread areas over productive waters of the Northern Atlantic, Northern Pacific, and the Southern Ocean show marine-source submicron organic aerosol surface concentrations of 100 ngm{sup -3}, with values up to 400 ngm{sup -3} over biologically productive areas. Comparison of long-term surface observations of water insoluble organic matter (WIOM) with POA concentrations from the two emission parameterizations shows that despite revealed discrepancies (often more than a factor of 2), both Gantt et al. (2011) and Vignati et al. (2010) formulations are able to capture the magnitude of marine organic aerosol concentrations, with the Gantt et al. (2011) parameterization attaining better seasonality. Model simulations show that the mixing state of the marine POA can impact the surface number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The largest increases (up to 20 %) in CCN (at a supersaturation (S) of 0.2 %) number concentration are obtained over biologically productive ocean waters when marine organic aerosol is assumed to be externally mixed with sea-salt. Assuming marine organics are internally-mixed with sea-salt provides diverse results with increases and decreases in the concentration of CCN over different parts of the ocean. The sign of the CCN change due to the addition of marine organics to seasalt aerosol is determined by the relative significance of the increase in mean modal diameter due to addition of mass, and the decrease in particle hygroscopicity due to compositional changes in marine aerosol. Based on emerging evidence for increased CCN concentration over biologically active surface ocean areas/periods, our study suggests that treatment of sea spray in global climate models (GCMs) as an internal mixture of marine organic aerosols and sea-salt will likely lead to an underestimation in CCN number concentration.

  5. Global ice sheet modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hughes, T.J.; Fastook, J.L. [Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME (United States). Institute for Quaternary Studies

    1994-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed.

  6. Global Climate Change,Global Climate Change, Land Cover Change, andLand Cover Change, and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Global Climate Change,Global Climate Change, Land Cover Change, andLand Cover Change Changes · Due to ­ Climate Change ­ Land Cover / Land Use Change ­ Interaction of Climate and Land Cover Change · Resolution ­ Space ­ Time Hydro-Climatic Change · Variability vs. Change (Trends) · Point data

  7. Climate Effects of Global Land Cover Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gibbard, S G; Caldeira, K; Bala, G; Phillips, T; Wickett, M

    2005-08-24T23:59:59.000Z

    There are two competing effects of global land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to heating when changing from grass/croplands to forest, and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate in a global land cover change scenario. We have performed coupled land/ocean/atmosphere simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model. We find that replacement of current vegetation by trees on a global basis would lead to a global annual mean warming of 1.6 C, nearly 75% of the warming produced under a doubled CO{sub 2} concentration, while global replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4 C. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming. In particular, high latitude forests probably have a net warming effect on the Earth's climate.

  8. Global Climate Modeling of the Martian water cycle with improved microphysics and radiatively active water ice clouds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Navarro, Thomas; Forget, François; Spiga, Aymeric; Millour, Ehouarn; Montmessin, Franck

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Radiative effects of water ice clouds have noteworthy consequences on the Martian atmosphere, its thermal structure and circulation. Accordingly, the inclusion of such effects in the LMD Mars Global Climate Model (GCM) greatly modifies the simulated Martian water cycle. The intent of this paper is to address the impact of radiatively active clouds on atmospheric water vapor and ice in the GCM and improve its representation. We propose a new enhanced modeling of the water cycle, consisting of detailed cloud microphysics with dynamic condensation nuclei and a better implementation of perennial surface water ice. This physical modeling is based on tunable parameters. This new version of the GCM is compared to the Thermal Emission Spectrometer observations of the water cycle. Satisfying results are reached for both vapor and cloud opacities. However, simulations yield a lack of water vapor in the tropics after Ls=180{\\deg} which is persistent in simulations compared to observations, as a consequence of aphelion c...

  9. A simple object-oriented and open source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system–Hector v1.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Schwarber, Adria; Link, Robert P.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Simple climate models play an integral role in policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global scale earth system processes. Hector has three main carbon pools: an atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model’s terrestrial carbon cycle includes respiration and primary production, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector’s actively solves the inorganic carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air-sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO2] and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways with high correlations (R >0.7) with current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5. Hector is freely available under an open source license, and its modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.

  10. Do Coupled Climate Models Correctly SImulate the Upward Branch of the Deept Ocean Global Conveyor?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sarmiento, Jorge L; Downes, Stephanie; Bianchi, Daniele

    2013-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

    The large-scale meridional overturning circulation (MOC) connects the deep ocean, a major reservoir of carbon, to the other components of the climate system and must therefore be accurately represented in Earth System Models. Our project aims to address the specific question of the pathways and mechanisms controlling the upwelling branch of the MOC, a subject of significant disagreement between models and observational syntheses, and among general circulation models. Observations of these pathways are limited, particularly in regions of complex hydrography such as the Southern Ocean. As such, we rely on models to examine theories of the overturning circulation, both physically and biogeochemically. This grant focused on a particular aspect of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) where there is currently significant disagreement between models and observationally based analyses of the MOC, and amongst general circulation models. In particular, the research focused on addressing the following questions: 1. Where does the deep water that sinks in the polar regions rise to the surface? 2. What processes are responsible for this rise? 3. Do state-of-the-art coupled GCMs capture these processes? Our research had three key components: observational synthesis, model development and model analysis. In this final report we outline the key results from these areas of research for the 2007 to 2012 grant period. The research described here was carried out primarily by graduate student, Daniele Bianchi (now a Postdoc at McGill University, Canada), and Postdoc Stephanie Downes (now a Research Fellow at The Australian national University, Australia). Additional support was provided for programmers Jennifer Simeon as well as Rick Slater.

  11. Soil degradation, global warming and climate impacts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feddema, Johannes J.; Freire, Sergio Carneiro

    2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    will demonstrate one methodology for assessing the potential large-scale impacts of soil degradation on African climates and water resources. In addition it will compare and contrast these impacts to those expected from global warming and compare impacts for differ...- ent watershed regions on the continent. 2. METHODS In order to make a similar comparison between pro- jected climate change scenarios due to global warming © Inter-Research 2001 *E-mail: feddema@ku.edu Soil degradation, global warming and climate...

  12. How strong is carbon cycle-climate feedback under global warming?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maryland at College Park, University of

    and physical climate system in a global warming scenario is studied using an Earth system model including

  13. Global Climate Change: Environment, Technology and Society

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mumby, Peter J.

    . Appreciate the main aspects of hydropower resource estimation, turbine design, deployment and environmental AND ASSESSMENTS Global Climate Change: Environment, Technology and Society I am a Civil Hydraulic

  14. Local and Seasonal Effects in the U.S. of Global Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eckaus, Richard S.

    2012-05-21T23:59:59.000Z

    Though the facts of global climate change are beyond doubt, there has been relatively limited information about its local consequences. Global climate models and their derivatives have provided often differing and unspecific ...

  15. Sensitivity of Remote Aerosol Distributions to Representation of Cloud-Aerosol Interactions in a Global Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Hailong; Easter, Richard C.; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Minghuai; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven J.; Qian, Yun; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Ma, Po-Lun; Vinoj, V.

    2013-06-05T23:59:59.000Z

    Many global aerosol and climate models, including the widely used Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), have large biases in predicting aerosols in remote regions such as upper troposphere and high latitudes. In this study, we conduct CAM5 sensitivity simulations to understand the role of key processes associated with aerosol transformation and wet removal affecting the vertical and horizontal long-range transport of aerosols to the remote regions. Improvements are made to processes that are currently not well represented in CAM5, which are guided by surface and aircraft measurements together with results from a multi-scale aerosol-climate model (PNNL-MMF) that explicitly represents convection and aerosol-cloud interactions at cloud-resolving scales. We pay particular attention to black carbon (BC) due to its importance in the Earth system and the availability of measurements. We introduce into CAM5 a new unified scheme for convective transport and aerosol wet removal with explicit aerosol activation above convective cloud base. This new implementation reduces the excessive BC aloft to better simulate observed BC profiles that show decreasing mixing ratios in the mid- to upper-troposphere. After implementing this new unified convective scheme, we examine wet removal of submicron aerosols that occurs primarily through cloud processes. The wet removal depends strongly on the sub-grid scale liquid cloud fraction and the rate of conversion of liquid water to precipitation. These processes lead to very strong wet removal of BC and other aerosols over mid- to high latitudes during winter months. With our improvements, the Arctic BC burden has a10-fold (5-fold) increase in the winter (summer) months, resulting in a much better simulation of the BC seasonal cycle as well. Arctic sulphate and other aerosol species also increase but to a lesser extent. An explicit treatment of BC aging with slower aging assumptions produces an additional 30-fold (5-fold) increase in the Arctic winter (summer) BC burden. This BC aging treatment, however, has minimal effect on other under-predicted species. Interestingly, our modifications to CAM5 that aim at improving prediction of high-latitude and upper tropospheric aerosols also produce much better AOD and AAOD over various other regions globally when compared to multi-year AERONET retrievals. The improved aerosol distributions have impacts on other aspects of CAM5, improving the simulation of global mean liquid water path and cloud forcing.

  16. Simulated diurnal rainfall physics in a multi-scale global climate model with embedded explicit convection

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pritchard, Michael Stephen

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    their Community Earth System Model (Richard Neale, personaldevelopment of Earth system models capable of reproducing

  17. The Tropical Atmospheric El Nio Signal in Satellite Precipitation Data and a Global Climate Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ) ABSTRACT Aspects of the tropical atmospheric response to El Niño related to the global energy and water and the Advanced Micro- wave Scanning Radiometer-E and simulations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies are highly correlated, but anomalies in stratiform­convective rainfall partitioning in the two datasets

  18. Studies of dynamical processes affecting global climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Keller, C.; Cooper, D.; Eichinger, W. [and others

    1998-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The main objective was, by a combined theoretical and observational approach, to develop improved models of dynamic processes in the oceans and atmosphere and to incorporate them into large climate codes, chiefly in four main areas: numerical physics, chemistry, water vapor, and ocean-atmosphere interactions. Main areas of investigation included studies of: cloud parameterizations for global climate codes, Lidar and the planetary boundary layer, chemistry, climate variability using coupled ocean-atmospheric models, and numerical physical methods. This project employed a unique approach that included participation of a number of University of California faculty, postdoctoral fellows and graduate students who collaborated with Los Alamos research staff on specific tasks, thus greatly enhancing the research output. Overall accomplishments during the sensing of the atmospheric planetary were: (1) first two- and three-dimensional remote sensing of the atmospheric planetary boundary layer using Lidars, (2) modeling of 20-year cycle in both pressure and sea surface temperatures in North Pacific, (3) modeling of low frequency internal variability, (4) addition of aerosols to stratosphere to simulate Pinatubo effect on ozone, (5) development of fast, comprehensive chemistry in the troposphere for urban pollution studies, (6) new prognostic cloud parameterization in global atmospheric code remedied problems with North Pacific atmospheric circulation and excessive equatorial precipitation, (7) development of a unique aerosol analysis technique, the aerosol time-of-flight mass spectrometer (ATOFMS), which allows real-time analysis of the size and chemical composition of individual aerosol particles, and (8) numerical physics applying Approximate Inertial Manifolds to ocean circulation. 14 refs., 6 figs.

  19. A Cross-model Comparison of Global Long-term Technology Diffusion under a 2?C Climate Change Control Target

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    van der Zwaan, Bob; Rosler, Hilke; Kober, Tom; Aboumahboub, Tino; Calvin, Katherine V.; Gernaat, David; Marangoni, Giacomo; McCollum, David

    2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We investigate the long-term global energy technology diffusion patterns required to reach a stringent climate change target with a maximum average atmospheric temperature increase of 2°C. If the anthropogenic temperature increase is to be limited to 2°C, total CO2 emissions have to be reduced massively, so as to reach substantial negative values during the second half of the century. Particularly power sector CO2 emissions should become negative from around 2050 onwards according to most models used for this analysis in order to compensate for GHG emissions in other sectors where abatement is more costly. The annual additional capacity deployment intensity (expressed in GW/yr) for solar and wind energy until 2030 needs to be around that recently observed for coal-based power plants, and will have to be several times higher in the period 2030–2050. Relatively high agreement exists across models in terms of the aggregated low-carbon energy system cost requirements on the supply side until 2050, which amount to about 50 trillion US$.

  20. Incorporating Urban Systems in Global Climate Models: The Role of GIScience

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feddema, Johannes J.

    2006-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

    0.92 brick 0.7 1360.0 0.3 1700 800 0.9 mud 1.0 1456.0 0.3 1820 800 0.9 wood 0.1 1127.5 0.5 550 2050 0.87 glass 0.9 2100.0 0.08 2500 840 0.91 stone 2.6 2310.0 0.275 2750 840 0.92 adobe 1.0 1456.0 0.3 1820 800 0.91 rubble 0.8 950 0.275 1900 500 0..., Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FC02- 97ER62402, by the National Science Foundation grant numbers ATM-0107404, and ATM-0413540, the NCAR Weather and Climate Impact Assessment Science Initiative, and the University of Kansas, Center for Research. Motivation...

  1. Sandia National Laboratories: Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    from improved climate models to performance models for underground waste storage to 3D printing and digital rock physics. Marianne Walck (Director ... Sandia Participated in the...

  2. Sandia National Laboratories: Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    to address the most challenging and demanding climate-change issues. Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) is designed to accel-erate the development and applica-tion of...

  3. CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL ECONOMY How to decarbonise the global economy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CLIMATE CHANGE · GLOBAL ECONOMY How to decarbonise the global economy Today's report on deep efforts of independent experts from 15 countries to find national pathways to making economies based-zero emissions sometime in the second half of this century. This deep cut should occur in a growing world economy

  4. WHAT'S IN A NAME? GLOBAL WARMING VERSUS CLIMATE CHANGE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haller, Gary L.

    WHAT'S IN A NAME? GLOBAL WARMING VERSUS CLIMATE CHANGE May 2014 #12;What's In A Name? Global NATIONAL SURVEY STUDY 2: GLOBAL WARMING VS. CLIMATE CHANGE............................ 10 Is global?................................................................10 When you think of global warming / climate change, what comes first to mind

  5. Cirrus clouds in a global climate model with a statistical cirrus cloud scheme

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Minghuai; Penner, Joyce E.

    2010-06-21T23:59:59.000Z

    A statistical cirrus cloud scheme that accounts for mesoscale temperature perturbations is implemented in a coupled aerosol and atmospheric circulation model to better represent both subgrid-scale supersaturation and cloud formation. This new scheme treats the effects of aerosol on cloud formation and ice freezing in an improved manner, and both homogeneous freezing and heterogeneous freezing are included. The scheme is able to better simulate the observed probability distribution of relative humidity compared to the scheme that was implemented in an older version of the model. Heterogeneous ice nuclei (IN) are shown to decrease the frequency of occurrence of supersaturation, and improve the comparison with observations at 192 hPa. Homogeneous freezing alone can not reproduce observed ice crystal number concentrations at low temperatures (<205 K), but the addition of heterogeneous IN improves the comparison somewhat. Increases in heterogeneous IN affect both high level cirrus clouds and low level liquid clouds. Increases in cirrus clouds lead to a more cloudy and moist lower troposphere with less precipitation, effects which we associate with the decreased convective activity. The change in the net cloud forcing is not very sensitive to the change in ice crystal concentrations, but the change in the net radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere is still large because of changes in water vapor. Changes in the magnitude of the assumed mesoscale temperature perturbations by 25% alter the ice crystal number concentrations and the net radiative fluxes by an amount that is comparable to that from a factor of 10 change in the heterogeneous IN number concentrations. Further improvements on the representation of mesoscale temperature perturbations, heterogeneous IN and the competition between homogeneous freezing and heterogeneous freezing are needed.

  6. Global climate change and international security.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  7. An investigation of the sub-grid variability of trace gases and aerosols for global climate modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qian, Yun; Gustafson, William I.; Fast, Jerome D.

    2010-07-29T23:59:59.000Z

    One fundamental property and limitation of grid based models is their inability to identify spatial details smaller than the grid cell size. While decades of work have gone into developing sub-grid treatments for clouds and land surface processes in climate models, the quantitative understanding of sub-grid processes and variability for aerosols and their precursors is much poorer. In this study, WRF-Chem is used to simulate the trace gases and aerosols over central Mexico during the 2006 MILAGRO field campaign, with multiple spatial resolutions and emission/terrain scenarios. Our analysis focuses on quantifying the sub-grid variability (SGV) of trace gases and aerosols within a typical global climate model grid cell, i.e. 75x75 km2. Our results suggest that a simulation with 3-km horizontal grid spacing adequately reproduces the overall transport and mixing of trace gases and aerosols downwind of Mexico City, while 75-km horizontal grid spacing is insufficient to represent local emission and terrain-induced flows along the mountain ridge, subsequently affecting the transport and mixing of plumes from nearby sources. Therefore, the coarse model grid cell average may not correctly represent aerosol properties measured over polluted areas. Probability density functions (PDFs) for trace gases and aerosols show that secondary trace gases and aerosols, such as O3, sulfate, ammonium, and nitrate, are more likely to have a relatively uniform probability distribution (i.e. smaller SGV) over a narrow range of concentration values. Mostly inert and long-lived trace gases and aerosols, such as CO and BC, are more likely to have broad and skewed distributions (i.e. larger SGV) over polluted regions. Over remote areas, all trace gases and aerosols are more uniformly distributed compared to polluted areas. Both CO and O3 SGV vertical profiles are nearly constant within the PBL during daytime, indicating that trace gases are very efficiently transported and mixed vertically by turbulence. But, simulated horizontal variability indicates that trace gases and aerosols are not well mixed horizontally in the PBL. During nighttime the SGV for trace gases is maximum at the surface, and quickly decreases with height. Unlike the trace gases, the SGV of BC and secondary aerosols reaches a maximum at the PBL top during the day. The SGV decreases with distance away from the polluted urban area, has a more rapid decrease for long-lived trace gases and aerosols than for secondary ones, and is greater during daytime than nighttime. The SGV of trace gases and aerosols is generally larger than for meteorological quantities. Emissions can account for up to 50% of the SGV over urban areas such as Mexico City during daytime for less-reactive trace gases and aerosols, such as CO and BC. The impact of emission spatial variability on SGV decays with altitude in the PBL and is insignificant in the free troposphere. The emission variability affects SGV more significantly during daytime (rather than nighttime) and over urban (rather than rural or remote) areas. The terrain, through its impact on meteorological fields such as wind and the PBL structure, affects dispersion and transport of trace gases and aerosols and their SGV.

  8. Global Climate Change Alliance Training Workshops on Mainstreaming...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Alliance Training Workshops on Mainstreaming Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Global Climate Change Alliance Training Workshop on...

  9. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H. [eds.

    1992-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  10. Issued March 2004 Global Climate & Energy Project

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Prinz, Friedrich B.

    University Objective The objective of this project is to develop optimized nanocomposite materials for high of the project Design of Nanotube-Metal Nanocluster Complex Meeting the Hydrogen Storage Material RequirementsIssued March 2004 Global Climate & Energy Project STANFORD UNIVERSITY Nanomaterials Engineering

  11. Global fish production and climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brander, K.M. [International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2007-12-11T23:59:59.000Z

    Current global fisheries production of {approx}160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but there is low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are giverned by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipiation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the pricipal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

  12. Energy and Climate Change: 15th National Conference and Global...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy and Climate Change: 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy, and the Environment Energy and Climate Change: 15th National Conference and Global Forum on...

  13. UWM Global Climate Change and Sustainable Development Initiative CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Saldin, Dilano

    UWM Global Climate Change and Sustainable Development Initiative CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Sponsored By UWM Global Climate Change and Sustainable Development Initiative Co Conference Description This conference will discuss the global issue of climate change in the regional

  14. Response of precipitation extremes to idealized global warming in an aqua-planet climate model: Towards robust projection across different horizontal resolutions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, F.; Collins, W.D.; Wehner, M.F.; Williamson, D.L.; Olson, J.G.

    2011-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Current climate models produce quite heterogeneous projections for the responses of precipitation extremes to future climate change. To help understand the range of projections from multimodel ensembles, a series of idealized 'aquaplanet' Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) runs have been performed with the Community Atmosphere Model CAM3. These runs have been analysed to identify the effects of horizontal resolution on precipitation extreme projections under two simple global warming scenarios. We adopt the aquaplanet framework for our simulations to remove any sensitivity to the spatial resolution of external inputs and to focus on the roles of model physics and dynamics. Results show that a uniform increase of sea surface temperature (SST) and an increase of low-to-high latitude SST gradient both lead to increase of precipitation and precipitation extremes for most latitudes. The perturbed SSTs generally have stronger impacts on precipitation extremes than on mean precipitation. Horizontal model resolution strongly affects the global warming signals in the extreme precipitation in tropical and subtropical regions but not in high latitude regions. This study illustrates that the effects of horizontal resolution have to be taken into account to develop more robust projections of precipitation extremes.

  15. Regional Climate Modeling: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Yuqing; Leung, Lai R.; McGregor, John L.; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Ding, Yihui; Kimura, Fujio

    2004-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Regional climate modeling with regional climate models (RCMs) has matured over the past decade and allows for meaningful utilization in a broad spectrum of applications. In this paper, latest progresses in regional climate modeling studies are reviewed, including RCM development, applications of RCMs to dynamical downscaling for climate change assessment, seasonal climate predictions and climate process studies, and the study of regional climate predictability. Challenges and potential directions of future research in this important area are discussed, with the focus on those to which less attention has been given previously, such as the importance of ensemble simulations, further development and improvement of regional climate modeling approach, modeling extreme climate events and sub-daily variation of clouds and precipitation, model evaluation and diagnostics, applications of RCMs to climate process studies and seasonal predictions, and development of regional earth system models. It is believed that with both the demonstrated credibility of RCMs’ capability in reproducing not only monthly to seasonal mean climate and interannual variability but also the extreme climate events when driven by good quality reanalysis and the continuous improvements in the skill of global general circulation models (GCMs) in simulating large-scale atmospheric circulation, regional climate modeling will remain an important dynamical downscaling tool for providing the needed information for assessing climate change impacts and seasonal climate predictions, and a powerful tool for improving our understanding of regional climate processes. An internationally coordinated effort can be developed with different focuses by different groups to advance regional climate modeling studies. It is also recognized that since the final quality of the results from nested RCMs depends in part on the realism of the large-scale forcing provided by GCMs, the reduction of errors and improvement in physics parameterizations in both GCMs and RCMs remain a priority for climate modeling community.

  16. Author's personal copy Two-way coupling of an ENSO model to the global climate model CLIMBER-3a

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levermann, Anders

    it is possible to introduce ENSO variability to an Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC we are using here. In this study we couple the Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC

  17. Effect of Terrestrial and Marine Organic Aerosol on Regional and Global Climate: Model Development, Application, and Verification with Satellite Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meskhidze, Nicholas; Zhang, Yang; Kamykowski, Daniel

    2012-03-28T23:59:59.000Z

    In this DOE project the improvements to parameterization of marine primary organic matter (POM) emissions, hygroscopic properties of marine POM, marine isoprene derived secondary organic aerosol (SOA) emissions, surfactant effects, new cloud droplet activation parameterization have been implemented into Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 5.0), with a seven mode aerosol module from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)���¢��������s Modal Aerosol Model (MAM7). The effects of marine aerosols derived from sea spray and ocean emitted biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) on microphysical properties of clouds were explored by conducting 10 year CAM5.0-MAM7 model simulations at a grid resolution 1.9�������°��������2.5�������° with 30 vertical layers. Model-predicted relationship between ocean physical and biological systems and the abundance of CCN in remote marine atmosphere was compared to data from the A-Train satellites (MODIS, CALIPSO, AMSR-E). Model simulations show that on average, primary and secondary organic aerosol emissions from the ocean can yield up to 20% increase in Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) at 0.2% Supersaturation, and up to 5% increases in droplet number concentration of global maritime shallow clouds. Marine organics were treated as internally or externally mixed with sea salt. Changes associated with cloud properties reduced (absolute value) the model-predicted short wave cloud forcing from -1.35 Wm-2 to -0.25 Wm-2. By using different emission scenarios, and droplet activation parameterizations, this study suggests that addition of marine primary aerosols and biologically generated reactive gases makes an important difference in radiative forcing assessments. All baseline and sensitivity simulations for 2001 and 2050 using global-through-urban WRF/Chem (GU-WRF) were completed. The main objective of these simulations was to evaluate the capability of GU-WRF for an accurate representation of the global atmosphere by exploring the most accurate configuration of physics options in GWRF for global scale modeling in 2001 at a horizontal grid resolution of 1�������° x 1�������°. GU-WRF model output was evaluated using observational datasets from a variety of sources including surface based observations (NCDC and BSRN), model reanalysis (NCEP/ NCAR Reanalysis and CMAP), and remotely-sensed data (TRMM) to evaluate the ability of GU-WRF to simulate atmospheric variables at the surface as well as aloft. Explicit treatment of nanoparticles produced from new particle formation in GU-WRF/Chem-MADRID was achieved by expanding particle size sections from 8 to 12 to cover particles with the size range of 1.16 nm to 11.6 �������µm. Simulations with two different nucleation parameterizations were conducted for August 2002 over a global domain at a 4�������º by 5�������º horizontal resolution. The results are evaluated against field measurement data from the 2002 Aerosol Nucleation and Real Time Characterization Experiment (ANARChE) in Atlanta, Georgia, as well as satellite and reanalysis data. We have also explored the relationship between ���¢��������clean marine���¢������� aerosol optical properties and ocean surface wind speed using remotely sensed data from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) on board the CALIPSO satellite and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on board the AQUA satellite. Detailed data analyses

  18. Global Climate Change: Opinions and Perceptions of Rural Nebraskans

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nebraska-Lincoln, University of

    Global Climate Change: Opinions and Perceptions of Rural Nebraskans 2008 Nebraska Rural Poll that they understand the issue of global climate change either fairly or very well. #12;Most rural Nebraskans believe climate change is already happening. #12;Most rural Nebraskans believe that our actions contribute

  19. Refining climate models

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Warren, Jeff; Iversen, Colleen; Brooks, Jonathan; Ricciuto, Daniel

    2014-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

    Using dogwood trees, Oak Ridge National Laboratory researchers are gaining a better understanding of the role photosynthesis and respiration play in the atmospheric carbon dioxide cycle. Their findings will aid computer modelers in improving the accuracy of climate simulations.

  20. Refining climate models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Warren, Jeff; Iversen, Colleen; Brooks, Jonathan; Ricciuto, Daniel

    2012-10-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Using dogwood trees, Oak Ridge National Laboratory researchers are gaining a better understanding of the role photosynthesis and respiration play in the atmospheric carbon dioxide cycle. Their findings will aid computer modelers in improving the accuracy of climate simulations.

  1. AWI Conference on Global Climate Change Conference Program

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yamamoto, Hirosuke

    » slides (ppt) 10:15 » Break 10:45 » Food and Agriculture Issues How will climate change impact foodAWI Conference on Global Climate Change Conference Program APRU World Institute Workshop on Climate Board 2:30 » Climate Changes Overview Richard C.J. SOMERVILLE, Distinguished Professor, Scripps

  2. Global warming and Arctic climate. Raymond S. Bradley

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mountziaris, T. J.

    Global warming and Arctic climate. Raymond S. Bradley Climate System Research Center University of Massachusetts Amherst #12;How have global temperatures changed & why? 1. Average instrumental records from around the world; express all as anomalies from 1961-90 average #12;#12;Overall trend is upward ("global

  3. The economics of long-term global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report is intended to provide an overview of economic issues and research relevant to possible, long-term global climate change. It is primarily a critical survey, not a statement of Administration or Department policy. This report should serve to indicate that economic analysis of global change is in its infancy few assertions about costs or benefits can be made with confidence. The state of the literature precludes any attempt to produce anything like a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis. Moreover, almost all the quantitative estimates regarding physical and economic effects in this report, as well as many of the qualitative assertions, are controversial. Section I provides background on greenhouse gas emissions and their likely climatic effects and on available policy instruments. Section II considers the costs of living with global change, assuming no substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Section III considers costs of reducing these emissions, though the available literature does not contain estimates of the costs of policies that would, on the assumptions of current climate models, prevent climate change altogether. The individual sections are not entirely compartmentalized, but can be read independently if necessary.

  4. Illegal logging threatens Congo's forests, global climate Illegal logging threatens Congo's forests, global climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    contracts with logging companies covering more than 15 million hectares of forest," the report stated with logging companies instead giving villages gifts of salt and beer worth less than $100. "In a contextIllegal logging threatens Congo's forests, global climate Illegal logging threatens Congo's forests

  5. alternative global climate: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Information Sciences Websites Summary: A Statistical Analysis of Global Inter-Annual Climate Anomalies in Monthly Sea Surface Temperature Records. Jian Huang and Finbarr...

  6. U.S. Global Change Research Program publishes "National Climate...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    U.S. Global Change Research Program publishes "National Climate Assessment" report for United States Home > Groups > OpenEI Community Central Graham7781's picture Submitted by...

  7. Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector 2002 DEER Conference...

  8. White House Conference on Global Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    President Clinton has directed the White House office on Environmental Policy to coordinate an interagency process to develop a plan to fulfill the commitment he made in his Earth Day address on April 21, 1993. This plan will become the cornerstone of the Climate Change Plan that will be completed shortly after the Rio Accord enters into force. The Office on Environmental Policy established the Interagency Climate Change Mitigation Group to draw on the expertise of federal agencies including the National Economic Council; the Council of Economic Advisors; the Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Office of Management and Budget; the National Security Council; the Domestic Policy Council; the Environmental Protection Agency; and the Departments of Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Interior, Treasury, Commerce, and State. Working groups have been established to examine six key policy areas: energy demand, energy supply, joint implementation, methane and other gases, sinks, and transportation. The purpose of the White House Conference on Global Climate Change was to ``tap the real-world experiences`` of diverse participants and seek ideas and information for meeting the President`s goals. During the opening session, senior administration officials defined the challenge ahead and encouraged open and frank conversation about the best possible ways to meet it.

  9. The Influence on Climate Change of Differing Scenarios for Future Development Analyzed Using the MIT Integrated Global System Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Prinn, Ronald G.

    A wide variety of scenarios for future development have played significant roles in climate policy discussions. This paper presents projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, sea level rise due to thermal expansion ...

  10. Global Warming What is Climate? Ocean's Role in Climate Change Uncertainty Quantification, the Next Frontier The Role Played by Oceans in Climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Restrepo, Juan M.

    Global Warming What is Climate? Ocean's Role in Climate Change Uncertainty Quantification, the Next Department University of Arizona October 11, 2008 #12;Global Warming What is Climate? Ocean's Role in Climate, Undergraduate Students: 2. UQGQG #12;Global Warming What is Climate? Ocean's Role in Climate Change Uncertainty

  11. Climate Multi-model Regression Using Spatial Smoothing Karthik Subbian

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Banerjee, Arindam

    Climate Multi-model Regression Using Spatial Smoothing Karthik Subbian Arindam Banerjee Abstract There are several Global Climate Models (GCMs) reported by var- ious countries to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Due to the varied nature of the GCM assumptions, the fu- ture projections

  12. Sensitivity of Climate to Diapycnal Diffusivity: Part I. Equilibrium State; Part II. Global Warming Scenario

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dalan, Fabio.

    Part I: The diapycnal diffusivity in the ocean is one of the least known parameters in current climate models. Measurements of this diffusivity are sparse and insufficient for compiling a global map. Inferences from inverse ...

  13. Climate Change over the Equatorial Indo-Pacific in Global Warming* CHIE IHARA, YOCHANAN KUSHNIR, AND MARK A. CANE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Climate Change over the Equatorial Indo-Pacific in Global Warming* CHIE IHARA, YOCHANAN KUSHNIR to global warming is investigated using model outputs submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate equatorial Indian Ocean warm more than the SSTs in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean under global warming

  14. Global Ice and Land Climate Studies Using Scatterometer Image Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Long, David G.

    1 Global Ice and Land Climate Studies Using Scatterometer Image Data David G. Long Brigham Young CA 91109 ben@pacific.jpl.nasa.gov Sasan.Saatchi@jpl.nasa.gov Cheryl Bertoia U. S. National Ice Center: Long, D. G., M. R. Drinkwater, B. Holt, S. Saatchi, and C. Bertoia, Global ice and land climate studies

  15. Global Climate Change: Why Understanding the Scientific Enterprise Matters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Howat, Ian M.

    Global Climate Change: Why Understanding the Scientific Enterprise Matters Ellen MosleyPolar/ByrdPolarhttp://bprc.osu.edu/ Understanding Climate Change Risks and Identifying Opportunities for Mitigation & Adaptation in Ohio Ohio State University, May 15, 2014 #12;Key Points Earth's climate is changing - the world is warming ­ that debate

  16. Studying the Causes of Recent Climate Change Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kammen, Daniel M.

    1 Studying the Causes of Recent Climate Change Ben Santer Program for Climate Model Diagnosis of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate" "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities" "Most

  17. An Integrated Assessment Framework for Uncertainty Studies in Global and Regional Climate Change: The IGSM-CAM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    2012-06-18T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper describes an integrated assessment framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), ...

  18. Expanding Global Cooperation on Climate Justice

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kammen, Daniel M.

    in evaluating the financial architecture necessary to support just and sustainable climate interventions

  19. Computer modeling of the global warming effect

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Washington, W.M. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1993-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    The state of knowledge of global warming will be presented and two aspects examined: observational evidence and a review of the state of computer modeling of climate change due to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. Observational evidence, indeed, shows global warming, but it is difficult to prove that the changes are unequivocally due to the greenhouse-gas effect. Although observational measurements of global warming are subject to ``correction,`` researchers are showing consistent patterns in their interpretation of the data. Since the 1960s, climate scientists have been making their computer models of the climate system more realistic. Models started as atmospheric models and, through the addition of oceans, surface hydrology, and sea-ice components, they then became climate-system models. Because of computer limitations and the limited understanding of the degree of interaction of the various components, present models require substantial simplification. Nevertheless, in their present state of development climate models can reproduce most of the observed large-scale features of the real system, such as wind, temperature, precipitation, ocean current, and sea-ice distribution. The use of supercomputers to advance the spatial resolution and realism of earth-system models will also be discussed.

  20. Developing Models for Predictive Climate Science

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Drake, John B [ORNL; Jones, Philip W [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Community Climate System Model results from a multi-agency collaboration designed to construct cutting-edge climate science simulation models for a broad research community. Predictive climate simulations are currently being prepared for the petascale computers of the near future. Modeling capabilities are continuously being improved in order to provide better answers to critical questions about Earth's climate. Climate change and its implications are front page news in today's world. Could global warming be responsible for the July 2006 heat waves in Europe and the United States? Should more resources be devoted to preparing for an increase in the frequency of strong tropical storms and hurricanes like Katrina? Will coastal cities be flooded due to a rise in sea level? The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), which archives all weather data for the nation, reports that global surface temperatures have increased over the last century, and that the rate of increase is three times greater since 1976. Will temperatures continue to climb at this rate, will they decline again, or will the rate of increase become even steeper? To address such a flurry of questions, scientists must adopt a systematic approach and develop a predictive framework. With responsibility for advising on energy and technology strategies, the DOE is dedicated to advancing climate research in order to elucidate the causes of climate change, including the role of carbon loading from fossil fuel use. Thus, climate science--which by nature involves advanced computing technology and methods--has been the focus of a number of DOE's SciDAC research projects. Dr. John Drake (ORNL) and Dr. Philip Jones (LANL) served as principal investigators on the SciDAC project, 'Collaborative Design and Development of the Community Climate System Model for Terascale Computers.' The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is a fully-coupled global system that provides state-of-the-art computer simulations of the Earth's past, present, and future climate states. The collaborative SciDAC team--including over a dozen researchers at institutions around the country--developed, validated, documented, and optimized the performance of CCSM using the latest software engineering approaches, computational technology, and scientific knowledge. Many of the factors that must be accounted for in a comprehensive model of the climate system are illustrated in figure 1.

  1. Chapter 1 Climate monitoring The European Commission strategy for global climate change studies and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Daniel, Rosenfeld

    Chapter 1 Climate monitoring The European Commission strategy for global climate change studies, Jerusalem, Israel Precipitation as a centerpiece in Climate Change Water is the lifeblood of our livelihood on Earth. Temperature-driven inhabitable areas are due to too cold temperatures, and not due to excessively

  2. Benchmark experiments with global climate models applicable to extra-solar gas giant planets in the shallow atmosphere approximation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bending, V L; Kolb, U

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The growing field of exoplanetary atmospheric modelling has seen little work on standardised benchmark tests for its models, limiting understanding of the dependence of results on specific models and conditions. With spatially resolved observations as yet difficult to obtain, such a test is invaluable. Although an intercomparison test for models of tidally locked gas giant planets has previously been suggested and carried out, the data provided were limited in terms of comparability. Here, the shallow PUMA model is subjected to such a test, and detailed statistics produced to facilitate comparison, with both time means and the associated standard deviations displayed, removing the time dependence and providing a measure of the variability. Model runs have been analysed to determine the variability between resolutions, and the effect of resolution on the energy spectra studied. Superrotation is a robust and reproducible feature at all resolutions.

  3. Global Climate Change Assessment Report Shows Nations Not Doing...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Climate Change Assessment Report Shows Nations Not Doing Enough Home > Blogs > Dc's blog Dc's picture Submitted by Dc(107) Contributor 5 November, 2014 - 14:49 The latest...

  4. Circular Retribution: The Effects of Climate Change on U .S. and Global Economy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Prescher, Hannes

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of global climate change on U.S. agriculture. JournalClimate Change and the Global Harvest: Potential Impacts of the Greenhouse Effect on Agriculture. ”ensuing change in climate patterns, are making agriculture a

  5. Climate Forcings and Climate Sensitivities Diagnosed from Coupled Climate Model Integrations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Forster, P M A F; Taylor, K E

    2006-07-25T23:59:59.000Z

    A simple technique is proposed for calculating global mean climate forcing from transient integrations of coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). This 'climate forcing' differs from the conventionally defined radiative forcing as it includes semi-direct effects that account for certain short timescale responses in the troposphere. Firstly, we calculate a climate feedback term from reported values of 2 x CO{sub 2} radiative forcing and surface temperature time series from 70-year simulations by twenty AOGCMs. In these simulations carbon dioxide is increased by 1%/year. The derived climate feedback agrees well with values that we diagnose from equilibrium climate change experiments of slab-ocean versions of the same models. These climate feedback terms are associated with the fast, quasi-linear response of lapse rate, clouds, water vapor and albedo to global surface temperature changes. The importance of the feedbacks is gauged by their impact on the radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. We find partial compensation between longwave and shortwave feedback terms that lessens the inter-model differences in the equilibrium climate sensitivity. There is also some indication that the AOGCMs overestimate the strength of the positive longwave feedback. These feedback terms are then used to infer the shortwave and longwave time series of climate forcing in 20th and 21st Century simulations in the AOGCMs. We validate the technique using conventionally calculated forcing time series from four AOGCMs. In these AOGCMs the shortwave and longwave climate forcings we diagnose agree with the conventional forcing time series within {approx}10%. The shortwave forcing time series exhibit order of magnitude variations between the AOGCMs, differences likely related to how both natural forcings and/or anthropogenic aerosol effects are included. There are also factor of two differences in the longwave climate forcing time series, which may indicate problems with the modeling of well-mixed-greenhouse-gas changes. The simple diagnoses we present provide an important and useful first step for understanding differences in AOGCM integrations, indicating that some of the differences in model projections can be attributed to different prescribed climate forcing, even for so-called standard climate change scenarios.

  6. Ensemble climate predictions using climate models and observational constraints

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    REVIEW Ensemble climate predictions using climate models and observational constraints BY PETER A. STOTT 1,* AND CHRIS E. FOREST 2 1 Hadley Centre for Climate Change (Reading Unit), Meteorology Building for constraining climate predictions based on observations of past climate change. The first uses large ensembles

  7. THE IMPACT OF THERMAL ENGINEERING RESEARCH ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phelan, Patrick [Arizona State University; Abdelaziz, Omar [ORNL; Otanicar, Todd [University of Tulsa; Phelan, Bernadette [Phelan Research Solutions, Inc.; Prasher, Ravi [Arizona State University; Taylor, Robert [University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; Tyagi, Himanshu [Indian Institute of Technology Ropar, India

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Global climate change is recognized by many people around the world as being one of the most pressing issues facing our society today. The thermal engineering research community clearly plays an important role in addressing this critical issue, but what kind of thermal engineering research is, or will be, most impactful? In other words, in what directions should thermal engineering research be targeted in order to derive the greatest benefit with respect to global climate change? To answer this question we consider the potential reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, coupled with potential economic impacts, resulting from thermal engineering research. Here a new model framework is introduced that allows a technological, sector-by-sector analysis of GHG emissions avoidance. For each sector, we consider the maximum reduction in CO2 emissions due to such research, and the cost effectiveness of the new efficient technologies. The results are normalized on a country-by-country basis, where we consider the USA, the European Union, China, India, and Australia as representative countries or regions. Among energy supply-side technologies, improvements in coal-burning power generation are seen as having the most beneficial CO2 and economic impacts. The one demand-side technology considered, residential space cooling, offers positive but limited impacts. The proposed framework can be extended to include additional technologies and impacts, such as water consumption.

  8. Biogeophysical effects of CO2-fertilization on global climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Mirin, A; Wickett, M; Delire, C; Phillips, T J

    2006-04-26T23:59:59.000Z

    CO{sub 2}-fertilization affects plant growth, which modifies surface physical properties, altering the surface albedo, and fluxes of sensible and latent heat. We investigate how such CO{sub 2}-fertilization effects on vegetation and surface properties would affect the climate system. Using a global three-dimensional climate-carbon model that simulates vegetation dynamics, we compare two multi-century simulations: a ''Control'' simulation with no emissions, and a ''Physiol-noGHG'' simulation where physiological changes occur as a result of prescribed CO{sub 2} emissions, but where CO{sub 2}-induced greenhouse warming is not included. In our simulations, CO{sub 2}-fertilization produces warming; we obtain an annual- and global-mean warming of about 0.65 K (and land-only warming of 1.4 K) after 430 years. This century-scale warming is mostly due to a decreased surface albedo associated with the expansion of the Northern Hemisphere boreal forests. On decadal time scales, the CO{sub 2} uptake by afforestation should produce a cooling effect that exceeds this albedo-based warming; but if the forests remain in place, the CO{sub 2}-enhanced-greenhouse effect would diminish as the ocean equilibrates with the atmosphere, whereas the albedo effect would persist. Thus, on century time scales, there is the prospect for net warming from CO{sub 2}-fertilization of the land biosphere. Further study is needed to confirm and better quantify our results.

  9. Modeling Water Resource Systems under Climate Change: IGSM-WRS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Strzepek, K.

    Through the integration of a Water Resource System (WRS) component, the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework has been enhanced to study the effects of climate change on managed water-resource systems. ...

  10. Sandia National Laboratories: Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Director of Sandia's Geoscience, Climate, and Consequence Effects Center, spoke on "Hydraulic Fracturing: The Role of Government-Sponsored R&D" as part of a session on "The...

  11. Global Climate Projections Coordinating Lead Authors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Olver, Peter

    (UK), G.-K. Plattner (Switzerland), J. Räisänen (Finland), A. Rinke (Germany), E. Roeckner (Germany in the 21st Century ............. 764 10.3.3 Changes in Ocean/Ice and High-Latitude Climate

  12. Hydrologic Response to Climate Variability, Climate Change, and Climate Extreme in the U.S.: Climate Model Evaluation and Projections

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai R.; Qian, Yun

    2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Water resources are sensitive to climate variability and change; predictions of seasonal to interannual climate variations and projections of long-term climate trends can provide significant values in managing water resources. This study examines the control (1975–1995) and future (1995–2100) climate simulated by a global climate model (GCM) and a regional climate simulation driven by the GCM control simulation for the U.S. Comparison of the regional climate simulation with observations across 13 subregions showed that the simulation captured the seasonality and the distributions of precipitation rate quite well. The GCM control and climate change simulations showed that, as a result of a 1% increase in greenhouse gas concentrations per year, there will be a warming of 2–3°C across the U.S. from 2000 to 2100. Although precipitation is not projected to change during this century, the warming trend will increase evapotranspiration to reduce annual basin mean runoff over five subregions along the coastal and south-central U.S.

  13. Sandia Energy - Global Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AtomisticFig1 Permalink Gallery Atomistic Molecular Dynamics of Ion-Containing Polymers Highlights - HPC Atomistic Molecular Dynamics of Ion-Containing Polymers In the quest...

  14. Sandia Energy - Global Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOnItemResearch > TheNuclear Press ReleasesInAppliedEnergyGeothermal Home

  15. The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page; Zhang, Xuesong; Bandaru, Varaprasad; West, Tristram O.; Wise, Marshall A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-19T23:59:59.000Z

    Land use change is a complex response to changing environmental and socioeconomic systems. Historical drivers of land use change include changes in the natural resource availability of a region, changes in economic conditions for production of certain products and changing policies. Most recently, introduction of policy incentives for biofuel production have influenced land use change in the US Midwest, leading to concerns that bioenergy production systems may compete with food production and land conservation. Here we explore how land use may be impacted by future climate mitigation measures by nesting a high resolution agricultural model (EPIC – Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) for the US Midwest within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM – Global Change Assessment Model). This approach is designed to provide greater spatial resolution and detailed agricultural practice information by focusing on the climate mitigation potential of agriculture and land use in a specific region, while retaining the global economic context necessary to understand the far ranging effects of climate mitigation targets. We find that until the simulated carbon prices are very high, the US Midwest has a comparative advantage in producing traditional food and feed crops over bioenergy crops. Overall, the model responds to multiple pressures by adopting a mix of future responses. We also find that the GCAM model is capable of simulations at multiple spatial scales and agricultural technology resolution, which provides the capability to examine regional response to global policy and economic conditions in the context of climate mitigation.

  16. Linking local air pollution to global chemistry and climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mayer, Monika.; Wang, Chien.; Webster, Mort David.; Prinn, Ronald G.

    We have incorporated a reduced-form urban air chemistry model in MIT's 2D-LO coupled chemistry-climate model. The computationally efficient reduced-form urban model is derived from the California Institute of Technology-Carnegie ...

  17. Accounting for global-mean warming and scaling uncertainties in climate change impact studies Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11(3), 12071226, 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Accounting for global-mean warming and scaling uncertainties in climate change impact studies 1207(s) 2007. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Accounting for global-mean warming from a few regional climate model runs are scaled, based on different global-mean warming projections

  18. Emissions Pricing to Stabilize Global Climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ) and the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR). These two centers bridge many key areas an interdisciplinary group from two established research centers at MIT: the Center for Global Change Science (CGCS that are most relevant to economic, social, and environmental effects. In turn, the greenhouse gas

  19. PHOTOSYNTHESIS AND GLOBAL CHANGE CAN CLIMATE DRIVEN CHANGES IN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barron-Gafford, Greg

    PHOTOSYNTHESIS AND GLOBAL CHANGE CAN CLIMATE DRIVEN CHANGES IN PHOTOSYNTHESIS BE USED TO PREDICT in photosynthesis, and thus substrate supply, influence the rate of ecosystem respiration (Re). Further- more in photosynthesis might result in concomitant changes in both the rate, and temperature-sensitivity, of Re. Re

  20. Global Food Shortage Linked to Biofuel Use -Part III -U.S. Backlash | Climate Science & Politics Climate Science & Politics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Global Food Shortage Linked to Biofuel Use - Part III - U.S. Backlash | Climate Science & Politics Climate Science & Politics Home About the Site Global Food Shortage Linked to Biofuel Use - Part III - U.S. Backlash Posted in May 24th, 2008 by Climate Patrol in Biofuel, Food Crisis, Sustainability In the last few

  1. Global Priority Conservation Areas in the Face of 21st Century Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Junsheng; Lin, Xin; Chen, Anping; Peterson, A. Townsend; Ma, Keping; Bertzky, Monika; Ciais, Philippe; Kapos, Valerie; Peng, Changhui; Poulter, Benjamin

    2013-01-24T23:59:59.000Z

    In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel...

  2. February 6, 2001 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarl, Bruce A.

    February 6, 2001 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE Bruce A McCarl, Texas A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2. Agriculture and Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2.1 Climate Change Effects on Agricultural Productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2

  3. Climate Impact of Transportation A Model Comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Girod, Bastien; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Grahn, Maria; Kitous, Alban; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page

    2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO2 emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and CO2 emissions of five different global transport models using harmonized input assumptions on income and population. For four models we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax. All models project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology is important for limiting energy consumption and CO2 emissions, but quite radical changes in the technology mix are required to stabilize or reverse the trend. While all models project liquid fossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax of US$200/tCO2 in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate room for improvement in modeling and empirical description of the transport system.

  4. Global and Sahel Regional Biophysical Processes, Vegetation Dynamics, and Climate Interactions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Song, Guoqiong

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Coupling processes . 137 A.2 Dynamicand dynamic VBP over global land, but the climate-carbon coupling process,

  5. Increase of Carbon Cycle Feedback with Climate Sensitivity: Results from a coupled Climate and Carbon Cycle Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Govindasamy, B; Thompson, S; Mirin, A; Wickett, M; Caldeira, K; Delire, C

    2004-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Coupled climate and carbon cycle modeling studies have shown that the feedback between global warming and the carbon cycle, in particular the terrestrial carbon cycle, could accelerate climate change and result in larger warming. In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of this feedback for year-2100 global warming in the range of 0 K to 8 K. Differing climate sensitivities to increased CO{sub 2} content are imposed on the carbon cycle models for the same emissions. Emissions from the SRES A2 scenario are used. We use a fully-coupled climate and carbon cycle model, the INtegrated Climate and CArbon model (INCCA) the NCAR/DOE Parallel Coupled Model coupled to the IBIS terrestrial biosphere model and a modified-OCMIP ocean biogeochemistry model. In our model, for scenarios with year-2100 global warming increasing from 0 to 8 K, land uptake decreases from 47% to 29% of total CO{sub 2} emissions. Due to competing effects, ocean uptake (16%) shows almost no change at all. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration increases were 48% higher in the run with 8 K global climate warming than in the case with no warming. Our results indicate that carbon cycle amplification of climate warming will be greater if there is higher climate sensitivity to increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} content; the carbon cycle feedback factor increases from 1.13 to 1.48 when global warming increases from 3.2 to 8 K.

  6. An Urban Parameterization for a Global Climate Model. Part II: Sensitivity to Input Parameters and the Simulated Urban Heat Island in Offline Simulations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oleson, Keith W.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Feddema, Johannes J.; Vertenstein, M.

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    tempera- tures of urban systems as impervious fraction increases. In general, these findings are in agreement with those observed for real urban ecosystems. Thus, the model appears to be a useful tool for examining the nature of the urban climate within... of the physical processes controlling energy and water fluxes and 2) the charac- terization of urban morphology and urban materials with respect to aerodynamic, radiative, and heat trans- fer properties (e.g., Terjung and O’Rourke 1980; Arn- field 2000; Masson...

  7. perspective: The responses of tropical forest species to global climate change: acclimate, adapt, migrate, or go extinct?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feeley, Kenneth J; Rehm, Evan M; Machovina, Brian

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    maps.  Nature Climate Change, 2, 182–185.   Bacles, S.   (1998)  Global  climate  change  and  tropical  forest 2011) Impacts  of  climate  change  on  the  world's  most 

  8. Climate Mitigation Policy Implications for Global Irrigation Water Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Wise, Marshall A.

    2013-08-22T23:59:59.000Z

    Energy, water and land are scarce resources, critical to humans. Developments in each affect the availability and cost of the others, and consequently human prosperity. Measures to limit greenhouse gas concentrations will inevitably exact dramatic changes on energy and land systems and in turn alter the character, magnitude and geographic distribution of human claims on water resources. We employ the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model to explore the interactions of energy, land and water systems in the context of alternative policies to limit climate change to three alternative levels: 2.5 Wm-2 (445 ppm CO2-e), 3.5 Wm-2 (535 ppm CO2-e) and 4.5 Wm-2 (645 ppm CO2-e). We explore the effects of alternative land-use emissions mitigation policy options—one which values terrestrial carbon emissions equally with fossil fuel and industrial emissions, and an alternative which places no penalty on land-use change emissions. We find that increasing populations and economic growth could be anticipated to lead to increased demand for water for agricultural systems (+200%), even in the absence of climate change. In general policies to mitigate climate change will increase agricultural demands for water, regardless of whether or not terrestrial carbon is valued or not. Burgeoning demands for water are driven by the demand for bioenergy in response to emissions mitigation policies. We also find that the policy matters. Increases in the demand for water when terrestrial carbon emissions go un-prices are vastly larger than when terrestrial system carbon emissions are prices at the same rate as fossil fuel and industrial emissions. Our estimates for increased water demands when terrestrial carbon systems go un-priced are larger than earlier studies. We find that the deployment of improved irrigation delivery systems could mitigate some of the increase in water demands, but cannot reverse the increases in water demands when terrestrial carbon emissions go un-priced. Finally we estimates that the geospatial pattern of water demands could stress some parts of the world, e.g. China, India and other countries in south and east Asia, earlier and more intensely than in other parts of the world, e.g. North America.

  9. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Raymond S. Bradley; Henry F. Diaz

    2010-12-14T23:59:59.000Z

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earthâ??s climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  10. Global climate change and the mitigation challenge

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Frank Princiotta [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States). Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division

    2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations, very likely the primary cause of the 0.8{sup o}C warming the Earth has experienced since the Industrial Revolution. With industrial activity and population expected to increase for the rest of the century, large increases in greenhouse gas emissions are projected, with substantial global additional warming predicted. This paper examines forces driving CO{sub 2} emissions, a concise sector-by-sector summary of mitigation options, and research and development (R&D) priorities. To constrain warming to below approximately 2.5{sup o}C in 2100, the recent annual 3% CO{sub 2} emission growth rate needs to transform rapidly to an annual decrease rate of from 1 to 3% for decades. Furthermore, the current generation of energy generation and end-use technologies are capable of achieving less than half of the emission reduction needed for such a major mitigation program. New technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate, especially for the key power generation and transportation sectors. Current energy technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) programs fall far short of what is required. 20 refs., 18 figs., 4 tabs.

  11. Financing a Global Deal on Climate Change | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directedAnnual SiteofEvaluating A PotentialJumpGermanFife Energy Park at MethilGlobal Climate Changea Global

  12. Regional Climate Model Projections for the State of Washington

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Salathe, E.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun; Zhang, Yongxin

    2010-05-05T23:59:59.000Z

    Global climate models do not have sufficient spatial resolution to represent the atmospheric and land surface processes that determine the unique regional heterogeneity of the climate of the State of Washington. If future large-scale weather patterns interact differently with the local terrain and coastlines than current weather patterns, local changes in temperature and precipitation could be quite different from the coarse-scale changes projected by global models. Regional climate models explicitly simulate the interactions between the large-scale weather patterns simulated by a global model and the local terrain. We have performed two 100-year climate simulations using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). One simulation is forced by the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) and the second is forced by a simulation of the Max Plank Institute, Hamburg, global model (ECHAM5). The mesoscale simulations produce regional changes in snow cover, cloudiness, and circulation patterns associated with interactions between the large-scale climate change and the regional topography and land-water contrasts. These changes substantially alter the temperature and precipitation trends over the region relative to the global model result or statistical downscaling. To illustrate this effect, we analyze the changes from the current climate (1970-1999) to the mid 21st century (2030-2059). Changes in seasonal-mean temperature, precipitation, and snowpack are presented. Several climatological indices of extreme daily weather are also presented: precipitation intensity, fraction of precipitation occurring in extreme daily events, heat wave frequency, growing season length, and frequency of warm nights. Despite somewhat different changes in seasonal precipitation and temperature from the two regional simulations, consistent results for changes in snowpack and extreme precipitation are found in both simulations.

  13. Global simulations of smoke from Kuwaiti oil fires and possible effects on climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Glatzmaier, G.A.; Malone, R.C.; Kao, C.Y.J.

    1991-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    The Los Alamos Global Climate Model has bee used to simulate the global evolution of the Kuwaiti oil fire smoke and its potential effects on the climate. The initial simulations were done shortly before the fires were lit in January 1991. They indicated that such an event would not result in a ``Mini Nuclear Winter`` as some people were suggesting. Further simulations during the year suggested that the smoke could be responsible for subtle regional climate changes in the spring such as a 5 degree centigrade decrease in the surface temperature in Kuwait, a 10% decrease in precipitation in Saudi Arabia and a 10% increase in precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau region. These results are in qualitative agreement with the observations this year.

  14. Global simulations of smoke from Kuwaiti oil fires and possible effects on climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Glatzmaier, G.A.; Malone, R.C.; Kao, C.Y.J.

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Los Alamos Global Climate Model has bee used to simulate the global evolution of the Kuwaiti oil fire smoke and its potential effects on the climate. The initial simulations were done shortly before the fires were lit in January 1991. They indicated that such an event would not result in a Mini Nuclear Winter'' as some people were suggesting. Further simulations during the year suggested that the smoke could be responsible for subtle regional climate changes in the spring such as a 5 degree centigrade decrease in the surface temperature in Kuwait, a 10% decrease in precipitation in Saudi Arabia and a 10% increase in precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau region. These results are in qualitative agreement with the observations this year.

  15. Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

    2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on a grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.

  16. Climate System Model Plan (2000-2005)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Community Climate System Model Plan (2000-2005) Prepared by the CCSM Scientific Steering Committee Development of the Climate System Model B. 300-Year Fully Coupled Control Simulation C. Simulation System Model Plan (2000-2005). The evolution of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM) from an atmosphere

  17. Structural Design Feasibility Study for the Global Climate Experiment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lewin,K.F.; Nagy, J.

    2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Neon, Inc. is proposing to establish a Global Change Experiment (GCE) Facility to increase our understanding of how ecological systems differ in their vulnerability to changes in climate and other relevant global change drivers, as well as provide the mechanistic basis for forecasting ecological change in the future. The experimental design was initially envisioned to consist of two complementary components; (A) a multi-factor experiment manipulating CO{sub 2}, temperature and water availability and (B) a water balance experiment. As the design analysis and cost estimates progressed, it became clear that (1) the technical difficulties of obtaining tight temperature control and maintaining elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels within an enclosure were greater than had been expected and (2) the envisioned study would not fit into the expected budget envelope if this was done in a partially or completely enclosed structure. After discussions between NEON management, the GCE science team, and Keith Lewin, NEON, Inc. requested Keith Lewin to expand the scope of this design study to include open-field exposure systems. In order to develop the GCE design to the point where it can be presented within a proposal for funding, a feasibility study of climate manipulation structures must be conducted to determine design approaches and rough cost estimates, and to identify advantages and disadvantages of these approaches including the associated experimental artifacts. NEON, Inc requested this design study in order to develop concepts for the climate manipulation structures to support the NEON Global Climate Experiment. This study summarizes the design concepts considered for constructing and operating the GCE Facility and their associated construction, maintenance and operations costs. Comparisons and comments about experimental artifacts, construction challenges and operational uncertainties are provided to assist in selecting the final facility design. The overall goal of this report is to provide a cost and technological basis for selection of the appropriate GCE Facility design.

  18. Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mahowald, Natalie [Cornell University; Rothenberg, D. [Cornell University; Lindsay, Keith [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Doney, Scott C. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; Moore, Jefferson Keith [University of California, Irvine; Randerson, James T. [University of California, Irvine; Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Jones, C. D. [Hadley Center, Devon, England

    2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries) and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climate feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.

  19. Global Biogeochemistry Models and Global Carbon Cycle Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Covey, C; Caldeira, K; Guilderson, T; Cameron-Smith, P; Govindasamy, B; Swanston, C; Wickett, M; Mirin, A; Bader, D

    2005-05-27T23:59:59.000Z

    The climate modeling community has long envisioned an evolution from physical climate models to ''earth system'' models that include the effects of biology and chemistry, particularly those processes related to the global carbon cycle. The widely reproduced Box 3, Figure 1 from the 2001 IPCC Scientific Assessment schematically describes that evolution. The community generally accepts the premise that understanding and predicting global and regional climate change requires the inclusion of carbon cycle processes in models to fully simulate the feedbacks between the climate system and the carbon cycle. Moreover, models will ultimately be employed to predict atmospheric concentrations of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases as a function of anthropogenic and natural processes, such as industrial emissions, terrestrial carbon fixation, sequestration, land use patterns, etc. Nevertheless, the development of coupled climate-carbon models with demonstrable quantitative skill will require a significant amount of effort and time to understand and validate their behavior at both the process level and as integrated systems. It is important to consider objectively whether the currently proposed strategies to develop and validate earth system models are optimal, or even sufficient, and whether alternative strategies should be pursued. Carbon-climate models are going to be complex, with the carbon cycle strongly interacting with many other components. Off-line process validation will be insufficient. As was found in coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs, feedbacks between model components can amplify small errors and uncertainties in one process to produce large biases in the simulated climate. The persistent tropical western Pacific Ocean ''double ITCZ'' and upper troposphere ''cold pole'' problems are examples. Finding and fixing similar types of problems in coupled carbon-climate models especially will be difficult, given the lack of observations required for diagnosis and validation of biogeochemical processes.

  20. Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort David.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Mayer, Monika.; Reilly, John M.; Harnisch, Jochen.; Hyman, Robert C.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Wang, Chien.

    Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a ...

  1. DO GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE REPRESENT A SERIOUS THREAT TO OUR WELFARE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    DO GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE REPRESENT A SERIOUS THREAT TO OUR WELFARE AND ENVIRONMENT? By Michael E. Mann I. Introduction The subjects of "global warming" and "climate change" have become parts of both the popular lexicon and the public discourse. Discussions of global warming often evoke passionate

  2. Same Science, Differing Policies; The Saga of Global Climate Change Eugene B. Skolnikoff *

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , and the E.U. itself. The possibility of global warming that raises this fear of unacceptable levels of science. The global warming that it is feared may lead to climate change is not yet observable in everydaySame Science, Differing Policies; The Saga of Global Climate Change Eugene B. Skolnikoff

  3. Climate changes mirror global warming predictions BY THOMAS CROWLEY Guest columnist

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Climate changes mirror global warming predictions BY THOMAS CROWLEY Guest columnist The Herald" and must reflect, at least in part, the climate system response to the increase in global warming. What if we wanted to prevent global warming. This is just doomsday speaking of the same type that he

  4. LETTER doi:10.1038/nature09407 Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Huey, Raymond B.

    LETTER doi:10.1038/nature09407 Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming Michael E. Dillon and projected climate warming2,13,14 . Global warming is probably having profound and diverse effects phenology3,4 , community interactions5 , genetics3,6 and extinctions7 have been attributed to recent global

  5. Increased Climate Variability Is More Visible Than Global Warming: A General

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kreinovich, Vladik

    Increased Climate Variability Is More Visible Than Global Warming: A General System@utep.edu Abstract While global warming is a statistically confirmed long-term phenomenon, its most visible than the global warming itself. 1 Formulation of the Problem What is global warming. The term "global

  6. Preliminary global assessment of terrestrial biodiversity consequences of sea level rise mediated by climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Menon, Shaily; Soberó n, Jorge; Li, Xingong; Peterson, A. Townsend

    2010-02-25T23:59:59.000Z

    Considerable attention has focused on the climatic effects of global climate change on biodiversity, but few analyses and no broad assessments have evaluated the effects of sea level rise on biodiversity. Taking advantage of new maps of marine...

  7. Financing Global Climate Change Mitigation | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directedAnnual SiteofEvaluating A PotentialJumpGermanFife Energy Park at MethilGlobal Climate Change

  8. Statistics and Climate Models Cari Kaufman

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    we get.") · Some ways that climate might change: (Source: Andrew Gettelman, NCAR) SAMSI Undergraduate Workshop, May 2007 4 #12;Models in Climate Change Assessment Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fourth models and observational constraints. {Figures 10.4 and 10.29} (Source: IPCC, Climate Change 2007

  9. 3, 11331166, 2007 Glacier-climate model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    of the Past Reconstructing glacier-based climates of LGM Europe and Russia ­ Part 1: Numerical modelling for climate change the LGM is a popular time period for testing the ability of GCMs to simulate past cli-25CPD 3, 1133­1166, 2007 Glacier-climate model for recosntructing palaeoclimates R. Allen et al

  10. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dunlea, Edward; Elfring, Chris

    2012-12-04T23:59:59.000Z

    Climate models are the foundation for understanding and projecting climate and climate-related changes and are thus critical tools for supporting climate-related decision making. This study developed a holistic strategy for improving the nationâ??s capability to accurately simulate climate and related Earth system changes on decadal to centennial timescales. The committeeâ??s report is a high level analysis, providing a strategic framework to guide progress in the nationâ??s climate modeling enterprise over the next 10-20 years. This study was supported by DOE, NSF, NASA, NOAA, and the intelligence community.

  11. Climate effects of anthropogenic sulfate: Simulations from a coupled chemistry/climate model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E.; Taylor, K.E.; Walton, J.J.

    1993-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, we use a more comprehensive approach by coupling a climate model with a 3-D global chemistry model to investigate the forcing by anthropogenic aerosol sulfate. The chemistry model treats the global-scale transport, transformation, and removal of SO{sub 2}, DMS and H{sub 2}SO{sub 4} species in the atmosphere. The mass concentration of anthropogenic sulfate from fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning is calculated in the chemistry model and provided to the climate model where it affects the shortwave radiation. We also investigate the effect, with cloud nucleation parameterized in terms of local aerosol number, sulfate mass concentration and updraft velocity. Our simulations indicate that anthropogenic sulfate may result in important increases in reflected solar radiation, which would mask locally the radiative forcing from increased greenhouse gases. Uncertainties in these results will be discussed.

  12. The China-in-Global Energy Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Qi, T.

    The China-in-Global Energy Model (C-GEM) is a global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model that captures the interaction of production, consumption and trade among multiple global regions and sectors – including five ...

  13. Questions of bias in climate models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Steven J.; Wigley, Tom M.; Meinshausen, Malte; Rogelj, Joeri

    2014-08-27T23:59:59.000Z

    The recent work by Shindell usefully contributes to the debate over estimating climate sensitivity by highlighting an important aspect of the climate system: that climate forcings that occur over land result in a more rapid temperature response than forcings that are distributed more uniformly over the globe. While, as noted in this work, simple climate models may be biased by assuming the same temperature response for all forcing agents, the implication that the MAGICC model is biased in this way is not correct.

  14. Climate Systems and Climate Change Is Climate Change Real?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pan, Feifei

    Chapter 10 Climate Systems and Climate Change #12;Is Climate Change Real? 1980 1898 2005 2003 #12;Arctic Sea Ice Changes #12;Observed Global Surface Air Temperature #12;! Current climate: weather station data, remote sensing data, numerical modeling using General Circulation Models (GCM) ! Past climate

  15. Pace of shifts in climate regions increases with global temperature

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mahlstein, Irina

    Human-induced climate change causes significant changes in local climates, which in turn lead to changes in regional climate zones. Large shifts in the world distribution of Köppen–Geiger climate classifications by the end ...

  16. Energy Conclave 2010 The global energy concerns of depleting fossil fuels and climate change have put

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Srivastava, Kumar Vaibhav

    at the rapidly increasing energy demand, the limited supply of fossil fuels and the increased concern over globalEnergy Conclave 2010 8th - 15th The global energy concerns of depleting fossil fuels and climate

  17. The role of US agricultural and forest activities in global climate change mitigation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, En

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    In 2005 the highest global surface temperature ever was recorded. A virtual consensus exists today among scientists that global warming is underway and that human greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are a significant cause. Possible mitigation of climate...

  18. Towards Ultra-High Resolution Models of Climate and Weather To appear in the International Journal of High Performance Computing Applications, 2008.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oliker, Leonid

    of anthropogenic climate change are highly dependent on cloud-radiation interactions. In this paper, we Keywords Climate model, atmospheric general circulation model, finite volume model, global warming scientists today, with economic ramifications in the trillions of dollars. Effectively performing

  19. Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.

  20. Estimating future global per capita water availability based on changes in climate and population

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parish, Esther S [ORNL; Kodra, Evan [Northeastern University; Ganguly, Auroop R [Northeastern University; Steinhaeuser, Karsten [University of Minnesota

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Human populations are profoundly affected by water stress, or the lack of sufficient per capita available freshwater. Water stress can result from overuse of available freshwater resources or from a reduction in the amount of available water due to decreases in rainfall and stored water supplies. Analyzing the interrelationship between human populations and water availability is complicated by the uncertainties associated with climate change projections and population projections. We present a simple methodology developed to integrate disparate climate and population data sources and develop first-order per capita water availability projections at the global scale. Simulations from the coupled land-ocean-atmosphere Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) forced with a range of hypothetical greenhouse gas emissions scenarios are used to project grid-based changes in precipitation minus evapotranspiration as proxies for changes in runoff, or fresh water supply. Population growth changes according to several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) storylines are used as proxies for changes in fresh water demand by 2025, 2050 and 2100. These freshwater supply and demand projections are then combined to yield estimates of per capita water availability aggregated by watershed and political unit. Results suggest that important insights might be extracted from the use of the process developed here, notably including the identification of the globe s most vulnerable regions in need of more detailed analysis and the relative importance of population growth versus climate change in in altering future freshwater supplies. However, these are only exemplary insights and, as such, could be considered hypotheses that should be rigorously tested with multiple climate models, multiple observational climate datasets, and more comprehensive population change storylines.

  1. Impacts of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions on clouds, convection, and precipitation as simulated by a super-parameterized global climate model /

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kooperman, Gabriel J.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2 coupled Community Earth System Model simulations. The meancoupled NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM), which alsoPrediction using Earth System Models Program, the National

  2. Opinion: Canada's efforts accelerate a global tragedy of the climate commons

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Opinion: Canada's efforts accelerate a global tragedy of the climate commons BY MAUREEN RYAN, KEN's statement that Canada "won't take `no' for an answer" regarding the impending U.S. decision about, Financial Post Opinion: Canada's efforts accelerate a global tragedy of the climate... http

  3. Climatic Impact of Global-Scale Deforestation: Radiative versus Nonradiative Processes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haak, Hein

    Climatic Impact of Global-Scale Deforestation: Radiative versus Nonradiative Processes EDOUARD L­ocean­atmosphere GCM is used to explore the biogeophysical impact of large-scale deforestation on surface climate that the surface albedo increase owing to deforestation has a cooling effect of 21.36 K globally. On the other hand

  4. Can ozone depletion and global warming interact to produce rapid climate change?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Limpasuvan, Varavut

    Can ozone depletion and global warming interact to produce rapid climate change? Dennis L. Hartmann of Climate Change (IPCC) assess- ment of the status of global warming, which reported that winter stratospheric ozone depletion and greenhouse warming are possible. These interactions may be responsible

  5. Testing for the Possible Influence of Unknown Climate Forcings upon Global Temperature Increases from 1950-2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anderson, Bruce T.; Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A.; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Cherchi, Annalisa

    2012-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Global-scale variations in the climate system over the last half of the twentieth century, including long-term increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures, are consistent with concurrent human-induced emissions of radiatively active gases and aerosols. However, such consistency does not preclude the possible influence of other forcing agents, including internal modes of climate variability or unaccounted for aerosol effects. To test whether other unknown forcing agents may have contributed to multidecadal increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures from 1950 to 2000, data pertaining to observed changes in global-scale sea surface temperatures and observed changes in radiatively active atmospheric constituents are incorporated into numerical global climate models. Results indicate that the radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trends in sea surface temperatures—and global-mean near-surface temperatures—is provided predominantly by known changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Further, results indicate that less than 10% of the long-term historical increase in global-mean near-surface temperatures over the last half of the twentieth century could have been the result of internal climate variability. In addition, they indicate that less than 25%of the total radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trend in global-mean near-surface temperatures could have been provided by changes in net radiative forcing from unknown sources (either positive or negative). These results, which are derived from simple energy balance requirements, emphasize the important role humans have played in modifying the global climate over the last half of the twentieth century.

  6. Global climate processes: Role of cirrus clouds for present and future PI: Ulrike Lohmann

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richner, Heinz

    26 P 2.2 CCC Global climate processes: Role of cirrus clouds for present and future climate PI nuclei affect cirrus clouds in the present and future climate? Does mineral dust lead to cirrus clouds the longwave radiation and could lead to a net cooling. Thus, it is important to better understand the role

  7. Climate change and the socioeconomics of global food production: A quantitative analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rambaut, Andrew

    1 Climate change and the socioeconomics of global food production: A quantitative analysis of how, Andrew J. Dougill and Piers M. Forster August 2010 Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper No. 29 #12;2 The Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) was established

  8. Global climate change and the scientific consensus Stephen Mulkey, PhD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Watson, Craig A.

    1 Global climate change and the scientific consensus Stephen Mulkey, PhD Director of Research scientists. As scientists, our job is to present the data on climate change and to propose plausible recreate the Earth's climate in a laboratory bottle and change its composition to see what happens. Instead

  9. Global climate change is currently affecting many ecological systems and may have large impacts on agri-

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    be crucial in the tropics, where most agriculture is in rain-fed systems and climate change has a potentially of Biological Sciences. Synergies between Agricultural Intensification and Climate Change Could CreateArticles Global climate change is currently affecting many ecological systems and may have large

  10. GLOBAL CHANGE ECOLOGY -ORIGINAL PAPER Buffered climate change effects in a Mediterranean pine species

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Herrera, Carlos M.

    GLOBAL CHANGE ECOLOGY - ORIGINAL PAPER Buffered climate change effects in a Mediterranean pine Abstract Within-range effects of climatic change on tree growth at the sub-regional scale remain poorly- growth responses to climate change, the role of drought becomes even more complex in shaping communities

  11. Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    drops at the surface that would threaten global agriculture for at least a year. The global nuclear of world agriculture, the arms race and cold war ended. Since then, the global nuclear arsenal has beenNuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still

  12. Physically-Based Global Downscaling: Climate Change Projections for a Full Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghan, Steven J.; Shippert, Timothy R.

    2006-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A global atmosphere/land model with an embedded subgrid orography scheme is used to simulate the period 1977-2100 using ocean surface conditions and radiative constituent concentrations for a climate change scenario. Climate variables simulated for multiple elevation classes are mapping according to the high-resolution of topography in ten regions with complex terrain. Analysis of changes in the simulated climate lead to the following conclusions. Changes in precipitation vary widely, with precipitation increasing more with increasing altitude in some region, decreasing more with altitude in others, and changing little in still others. In some regions the sign of the precipitation change depends on surface elevation. Changes in surface air temperature are rather uniform, with at most a two-fold difference between the largest and smallest changes within a region. In most cases the warming increases with altitude. Changes in snow water are highly dependent on altitude. Absolute changes usually increase with altitude, while relative changes decrease. In places where snow accumulates, an artificial upper bound on snow water limits the sensitivity of snow water to climate change considerably. The simulated impact of climate change on regional mean snow water varies widely, with little impact in regions in which the upper bound on snow water is the dominant snow water sink, moderate impact in regions with a mixture of seasonal and permanent snow, and profound impacts on regions with little permanent snow.

  13. Physically-Based Global Downscaling Climate Change Projections for a Full Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghan, Steven J.; Shippert, Timothy R.

    2005-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

    A global atmosphere/land model with an embedded subgrid orography scheme is used to simulate the period 1977-2100 using ocean surface conditions and radiative constituent concentrations for a climate change scenario. Climate variables simulated for multiple elevation classes are mapping according to a high-resolution elevation dataset in ten regions with complex terrain. Analysis of changes in the simulated climate leads to the following conclusions. Changes in precipitation vary widely, with precipitation increasing more with increasing altitude in some region, decreasing more with altitude in others, and changing little in still others. In some regions the sign of the precipitation change depends on surface elevation. Changes in surface air temperature are rather uniform, with at most a two-fold difference between the largest and smallest changes within a region; in most cases the warming increases with altitude. Changes in snow water are highly dependent on altitude. Absolute changes usually increase with altitude, while relative changes decrease. In places where snow accumulates, an artificial upper bound on snow water limits the sensitivity of snow water to climate change considerably. The simulated impact of climate change on regional mean snow water varies widely, with little impact in regions in which the upper bound on snow water is the dominant snow water sink, moderate impact in regions with a mixture of seasonal and permanent snow, and profound impacts on regions with little permanent snow.

  14. Modeling Water, Climate, Agriculture, and the Economy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yu, Winston

    Describes two models used in the integrated modeling framework designed to study water, climate, agriculture and the economy in Pakistan's Indus Basin: (1) the Indus Basin Model Revised (IBMR-1012), a hydro-economic ...

  15. Climate Modeling using High-Performance Computing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mirin, A A

    2007-02-05T23:59:59.000Z

    The Center for Applied Scientific Computing (CASC) and the LLNL Climate and Carbon Science Group of Energy and Environment (E and E) are working together to improve predictions of future climate by applying the best available computational methods and computer resources to this problem. Over the last decade, researchers at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) have developed a number of climate models that provide state-of-the-art simulations on a wide variety of massively parallel computers. We are now developing and applying a second generation of high-performance climate models. Through the addition of relevant physical processes, we are developing an earth systems modeling capability as well.

  16. Integrated Assessment of Global Water Scarcity over the 21st Century under Multiple Climate Change Mitigation Policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and a global population of 14 billion by 2095, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demand for water exceeds the amount of water availability in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 20% and 27% of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change.

  17. Modeling land surface processes of the midwestern United States : predicting soil moisture under a warmer climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Winter, Jonathan (Jonathan Mark)

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation seeks to quantify the response of soil moisture to climate change in the midwestern United States. To assess this response, a dynamic global vegetation model, Integrated Biosphere Simulator, was coupled ...

  18. The Los Alamos coupled climate model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, P.W.; Malone, R.C.; Lai, C.A.

    1998-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    To gain a full understanding of the Earth`s climate system, it is necessary to understand physical processes in the ocean, atmosphere, land and sea ice. In addition, interactions between components are very important and models which couple all of the components into a single coupled climate model are required. A climate model which couples ocean, sea ice, atmosphere and land components is described. The component models are run as autonomous processes coupled to a flux coupler through a flexible communications library. Performance considerations of the model are examined, particularly for running the model on distributed-shared-memory machine architectures.

  19. Model-data Fusion Approaches for Retrospective and Predictive Assessment of the Pan-Arctic Scale Permafrost Carbon Feedback to Global Climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    representation of the Arctic system carbon cycle in Earth System Modeling frameworks. This proposed study of permafrost carbon processes in terrestrial biogeochemistry models, to operate within coupled Earth system modeling frameworks. PROJECT SIGNIFICANCE This work will provide a critical bridge between the abundant

  20. Climate Insights 101 Questions and Discussion Points: Module 1, Lesson 4: An Introduction to Climate Modelling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pedersen, Tom

    Climate Insights 101 Questions and Discussion Points: Module 1, Lesson 4: An Introduction to Climate Modelling 1 Climate Insights 101 Questions and Discussion Points Module 1, Lesson 4: An Introduction to Climate Modelling Available at http://pics.uvic.ca/education/climate-insights-101 Updated May

  1. COMPARING MODEL RESULTS TO NATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY GOALS: RESULTS FROM THE ASIA MODELING EXERCISE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Fawcett, Allen A.; Jiang, Kejun

    2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    While the world has yet to adopt a single unified policy to limit climate change, many countries and regions have adopted energy and climate policies that have implications for global emissions. In this paper, we discuss a few key policies and how they are included in a set of 24 energy and integrated assessment models that participated in the Asia Modeling Exercise. We also compare results from these models for a small set of stylized scenarios to the pledges made as part of the Copenhagen Accord and the goals stated by the Major Economies Forum. We find that the targets outlined by the United States, the European Union, Japan, and Korea require significant policy action in most of the models analyzed. For most of the models in the study, however, the goals outlined by India are met without any climate policy. The stringency of climate policy required to meet China’s Copenhagen pledges varies across models and accounting methodologies.

  2. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data, A New Data Product for Climate Studies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xie, Shaocheng [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); McCoy, Renata B. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Klein, Stephen A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Cederwall, Richard T. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Wiscombe, Warren J. [Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL); Clothiaux, Eugene E. [Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; Gaustad, Krista L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL); Golaz, Jean-Christophe [NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Princeton, NJ; Shamblin, Stefanie H [ORNL; Jensen, Michael P. [Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL); Johnson, Karen L. [Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL); Lin, Yanluan [NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Princeton, NJ; Long, Charles N. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL); Mather, James H. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL); McCord, Raymond A [ORNL; McFarlane, Sally A. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL); Palanisamy, Giri [ORNL; Shi, Yan [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL); Turner, David D. [University of Wisconsin, Madison

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program (www.arm.gov) was created in 1989 to address scientific uncertainties related to global climate change, with a focus on the crucial role of clouds and their influence on the transfer of radiation in the atmosphere. A central activity is the acquisition of detailed observations of clouds and radiation, as well as related atmospheric variables for climate model evaluation and improvement. Since 1992, ARM has established six permanent ARM Climate Research Facility (ACRF) sites and deployed an ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) in diverse climate regimes around the world (Fig. 1) to perform long-term continuous field measurements. The time record of ACRF data now exceeds a decade at most ACRF fixed sites and ranges from several months to one year for AMF deployments. Billions of measurements are currently stored in millions of data files in the ACRF Data Archive. The long-term continuous ACRF data provide invaluable information to improve our understanding of the interaction between clouds and radiation, and an observational basis for model validation and improvement and climate studies. Given the huge number of data files and current diversity of archived ACRF data structures, however, it can be difficult for an outside user such as a climate modeler to quickly find the ACRF data product(s) that best meets their research needs. The required geophysical quantities may exist in multiple data streams, and over the history of ACRF operations, the measurements could be obtained by a variety of instruments, reviewed with different levels of data quality assurance, or derived using different algorithms. In addition, most ACRF data are stored in daily-based files with a temporal resolution that ranges from a few seconds to a few minutes, which is much finer than that sought by some users. Therefore, it is not as convenient for data users to perform quick comparisons over large spans of data, and this can hamper the use of ACRF data by the climate community. To make ACRF data better serve the needs of climate studies and model development, ARM has developed a data product specifically tailored for use by the climate community. The new data product, named the Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) dataset, assembles those quantities that are both well observed by ACRF over many years and are often used in model evaluation into one single dataset. The CMBE product consists of hourly averages and thus has temporal resolution comparable to a typical resolution used in climate model output. It also includes standard deviations within the averaged hour and quality control flags for the selected quantities to indicate the temporal variability and data quality. Since its initial release in February 2008, the new data product has quickly drawn the attention of the climate modeling community. It is being used for model evaluation by two major U.S. climate modeling centers, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of CMBE data and a few examples that demonstrate the potential value of CMBE data for climate modeling and in studies of cloud processes and climate variability and change.

  3. Regional climate models, spatial data and extremes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nychka, Douglas

    density function. f(y) = eg(y) or g(y) = log(f(y)) we are interested in the (simple) behavior of g when y bands show the 5­95% range for 19 simulations from five clim forcings due to solar activity Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessement Report. Used as evidence for attributing global

  4. Sensitivity of global tropical climate to land surface processes: Mean state and interannual variability

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ma, Hsi-Yen; Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Xue, Yongkang

    2013-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines the sensitivity of global tropical climate to land surface processes (LSP) using an atmospheric general circulation model both uncoupled (with prescribed SSTs) and coupled to an oceanic general circulation model. The emphasis is on the interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical processes, which have first order influence on the surface energy and water budgets. The sensitivity to those processes is represented by the differences between model simulations, in which two land surface schemes are considered: 1) a simple land scheme that specifies surface albedo and soil moisture availability, and 2) the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model (SSiB), which allows for consideration of interactive soil moisture and vegetation biophysical process. Observational datasets are also employed to assess the reality of model-revealed sensitivity. The mean state sensitivity to different LSP is stronger in the coupled mode, especially in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, seasonal cycle of SSTs in the equatorial Pacific, as well as ENSO frequency, amplitude, and locking to the seasonal cycle of SSTs are significantly modified and more realistic with SSiB. This outstanding sensitivity of the atmosphere-ocean system develops through changes in the intensity of equatorial Pacific trades modified by convection over land. Our results further demonstrate that the direct impact of land-atmosphere interactions on the tropical climate is modified by feedbacks associated with perturbed oceanic conditions ("indirect effect" of LSP). The magnitude of such indirect effect is strong enough to suggest that comprehensive studies on the importance of LSP on the global climate have to be made in a system that allows for atmosphere-ocean interactions.

  5. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory interests and capabilities for research on the ecological effects of global climatic and atmospheric change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Amthor, J.S.; Houpis, J.L.; Kercher, J.R.; Ledebuhr, A.; Miller, N.L.; Penner, J.E.; Robison, W.L.; Taylor, K.E.

    1994-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has interests and capabilities in all three types of research that must be conducted in order to understand and predict effects of global atmospheric and climatic (i.e., environmental) changes on ecological systems and their functions (ecosystem function is perhaps most conveniently defined as mass and energy exchange and storage). These three types of research are: (1) manipulative experiments with plants and ecosystems; (2) monitoring of present ecosystem, landscape, and global exchanges and pools of energy, elements, and compounds that play important roles in ecosystem function or the physical climate system, and (3) mechanistic (i.e., hierarchic and explanatory) modeling of plant and ecosystem responses to global environmental change. Specific experimental programs, monitoring plans, and modeling activities related to evaluation of ecological effects of global environmental change that are of interest to, and that can be carried out by LLNL scientists are outlined. Several projects have the distinction of integrating modeling with empirical studies resulting in an Integrated Product (a model or set of models) that DOE or any federal policy maker could use to assess ecological effects. The authors note that any scheme for evaluating ecological effects of atmospheric and climatic change should take into account exceptional or sensitive species, in particular, rare, threatened, or endangered species.

  6. Assessing the effects of ocean diffusivity and climate sensitivity on the rate of global climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schmittner, Andreas

    sensitivity and ocean heat uptake on the rate of future climate change. We apply a range of values for climate a significant effect on the rate of transient climate change for high values of climate sensitivity, while values of climate sensitivity and low values of ocean diffusivity. Such high rates of change could

  7. Urban climate resilience : a global assessment of city adaptation plans

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katich, Kristina Noel

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    As policy makers accept climate change as an irrefutable threat, adaptation planning has emerged as a necessary action for countries, states, and municipalities. This thesis explores adaptive responses to climate change ...

  8. Institutionalizing Unsustainability: The Paradox of Global Climate Governance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stevenson, Hayley

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    s Fourth National Communication on Climate Change. A Reportclimate change can be assessed using data from national communicationscommunication were also reflected in the working drafts of the Spanish Climate Change

  9. Development and application of WRF3.3-CLM4crop to study of agriculture - climate interaction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lu, Yaqiong

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Global Climate Change and United-States Agriculture, Nature,climate modeling Land surface modeling Agriculture and climate interaction Land use change

  10. How will changes in global climate influence California?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weare, B C

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    future climate change impacts on water for agriculture andclimate change that will be important for California agriculture

  11. Subtask 2.4 - Integration and Synthesis in Climate Change Predictive Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jaroslav Solc

    2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) completed a brief evaluation of the existing status of predictive modeling to assess options for integration of our previous paleohydrologic reconstructions and their synthesis with current global climate scenarios. Results of our research indicate that short-term data series available from modern instrumental records are not sufficient to reconstruct past hydrologic events or predict future ones. On the contrary, reconstruction of paleoclimate phenomena provided credible information on past climate cycles and confirmed their integration in the context of regional climate history is possible. Similarly to ice cores and other paleo proxies, acquired data represent an objective, credible tool for model calibration and validation of currently observed trends. It remains a subject of future research whether further refinement of our results and synthesis with regional and global climate observations could contribute to improvement and credibility of climate predictions on a regional and global scale.

  12. Long-Term Predictions of Global Climate Using the Ocean Conveyor

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ray, P.; Wilson, J.R.

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Many have attributed the Great Ocean Conveyor as a major driver of global climate change over millennia as well as a possible explanation for shorter (multidecadal) oscillations. The conveyor is thought to have a cycle time on the order of 1000 years, however recent research has suggested that it is much faster than previously believed (about 100 years). A faster conveyor leads to the possibility of the conveyor's role in even shorter oscillations such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The conveyor is primarily density driven. In this study the salty outflow of the Red Sea is used to predict its behavior ten years into the future. A successful model could lead to a long-term prediction (ten years) of El Ninos, Atlantic hurricane season intensity, as well as global temperature and precipitation patterns.

  13. Aerosol, Cloud, and Climate: From Observation to Model

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Jian Wang

    2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Scientists have long been investigating this phenomenon of "global warming," which is believed to be at least partly due to the increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the air from burning fossil fuels. Funded by DOE, teams of researchers from BNL and other national labs have been gathering data in the U.S. and internationally to build computer models of climate and weather to help in understanding general patterns, causes, and perhaps, solutions.

  14. Aerosol, Cloud, and Climate: From Observation to Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jian Wang

    2010-05-12T23:59:59.000Z

    Scientists have long been investigating this phenomenon of "global warming," which is believed to be at least partly due to the increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the air from burning fossil fuels. Funded by DOE, teams of researchers from BNL and other national labs have been gathering data in the U.S. and internationally to build computer models of climate and weather to help in understanding general patterns, causes, and perhaps, solutions.

  15. Constructive Contrasts Between Modeled and Measured Climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hargrove, William W.

    Constructive Contrasts Between Modeled and Measured Climate Responses Over a Regional Scale of simulated net primary production (NPP) to climate variables and the response observed in field measurements of NPP. Residual contrasts com- pared deviations of NPP from the empirical surface to identify groupings

  16. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops.

  17. Institutionalizing Unsustainability: The Paradox of Global Climate Governance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stevenson, Hayley

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    results in 4° C global warming, sea level rise, specieslevels of greenhouse gases are responsible for incremental global warming.levels as that of the developing countries, the world would not today have faced the threat of global warming.

  18. GLOBAL HYDRLOGIC PERSPECTIVES ON THE MID-CRETACEOUS GREENHOUSE CLIMATE (APTIAN-ALBIAN)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Suarez, Marina B.

    2009-01-03T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation examines the mid-Cretaceous greenhouse climate in the Aptian-Albian through the perspective of the global hydrologic cycle. Stable isotopic compositions of pedogenic and exposure surface carbonates presented ...

  19. Climate Change Influences on Global Distributions of Dengue and Chikungunya Virus Vectors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Campbell, Lindsay P.; Luther, Caylor; Moo-Llanes, David; Ramsey, Janine M.; Danis-Lozano, Rogelio; Peterson, A. Townsend

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This packet presents raster data files that accompany a manuscript submitted for publication to Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, titled “Climate Change Influences on Global Vector Distributions for Dengue and Chikungunya Viruses...

  20. Background: Global Warming, 2009 1. Unequivocally, the climate is warming. Natural systems are affected.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Minnesota, University of

    ." #12;Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transportation Sources in Minnesota A Study gas (GHG) emissions from Minnesota's transportation sector. #12;Research Study Team UniversityBackground: Global Warming, 2009 1. Unequivocally, the climate is warming. Natural systems

  1. CO Capture, Reuse, and Storage Technologies2 for Mitigating Global Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CO Capture, Reuse, and Storage Technologies2 for Mitigating Global Climate Change A White Paper Final Report DOE Order No. DE-AF22-96PC01257 Energy Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology 77 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 5. Geological Storage Technology

  2. Climate change and uncertainty in ecological niche modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alvarez, Otto

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    in California." Journal of Climate 8(3): 606- Elith, J. , C.vegetation model for use with climate models: concepts andthe suitability of spatial climate data sets." International

  3. Developing fast and efficient climate models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Williamson, Mark

    , based on the global model of Tim Lenton. The resulting package comprises an Earth System Model was closely integrated with the GENIE (Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system model) project, funded by the NERC

  4. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CERN. Geneva

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

  5. Extinction Risk, Ecological Stress and Climate Change: How Species Respond to Changes in Global Biodiversity?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    1 Extinction Risk, Ecological Stress and Climate Change: How Species Respond to Changes in Global subordinate species less intelligent than us, at risk of extinction. In other words, anthropogenic activities have made other species sensitive to changes in climate and habitat vulnerable to extinction [Parry et

  6. U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity and the Global Climate Change Initiative (released in AEO2005)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administrations Global Climate Change Initiative. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas intensity by 18% over the 2002 to 2012 time frame. For the purposes of the initiative, greenhouse gas intensity is defined as the ratio of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to economic output.

  7. U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity and the Global Climate Change Initiative (released in AEO2006)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administrations Global Climate Change Initiative. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity-defined as the ratio of total U.S. GHG emissions to economic output-by 18% over the 2002 to 2012 time frame.

  8. THE SECOND LAW OF THERMODYNAMICS AND THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM: A REVIEW OF THE MAXIMUM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lorenz, Ralph D.

    to absorption of solar radiation in the climate system is found to be irrelevant to the maximized prop- erties from hot to cold places, thereby producing the kinetic energy of the fluid itself. His generalTHE SECOND LAW OF THERMODYNAMICS AND THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM: A REVIEW OF THE MAXIMUM ENTROPY

  9. National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment Energy and Climate Change

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment: Energy and Climate Change will develop and advance partnerships that focus on transitioning the world to a new "low carbon" and "climate resilient" energy system. It will emphasize putting ideas into action - moving forward on policy and practice.

  10. The Community Climate System Model Version 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gent, Peter R.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Donner, Leo J.; Holland, Marika M.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Jayne, Steve R.; Lawrence, David M.; Neale, Richard; Rasch, Philip J.; Vertenstein, Mariana; Worley, Patrick; Yang, Zong-Liang; Zhang, Minghua

    2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The fourth version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) was recently completed and released to the climate community. This paper describes developments to all the CCSM components, and documents fully coupled pre-industrial control runs compared to the previous version, CCSM3. Using the standard atmosphere and land resolution of 1{sup o} results in the sea surface temperature biases in the major upwelling regions being comparable to the 1.4{sup o} resolution CCSM3. Two changes to the deep convection scheme in the atmosphere component result in the CCSM4 producing El Nino/Southern Oscillation variability with a much more realistic frequency distribution than the CCSM3, although the amplitude is too large compared to observations. They also improve the representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and the frequency distribution of tropical precipitation. A new overflow parameterization in the ocean component leads to an improved simulation of the deep ocean density structure, especially in the North Atlantic. Changes to the CCSM4 land component lead to a much improved annual cycle of water storage, especially in the tropics. The CCSM4 sea ice component uses much more realistic albedos than the CCSM3, and the Arctic sea ice concentration is improved in the CCSM4. An ensemble of 20th century simulations runs produce an excellent match to the observed September Arctic sea ice extent from 1979 to 2005. The CCSM4 ensemble mean increase in globally-averaged surface temperature between 1850 and 2005 is larger than the observed increase by about 0.4 C. This is consistent with the fact that the CCSM4 does not include a representation of the indirect effects of aerosols, although other factors may come into play. The CCSM4 still has significant biases, such as the mean precipitation distribution in the tropical Pacific Ocean, too much low cloud in the Arctic, and the latitudinal distributions of short-wave and long-wave cloud forcings.

  11. Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates. Progress report, February 1, 1992--January 31, 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prell, W.L.; Webb, T. III

    1992-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Predicting the potential climatic effects of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide requires the continuing development of climate models. Confidence in the predictions will be much enhanced once the models are thoroughly tested in terms of their ability to simulate climates that differ significantly from today`s climate. As one index of the magnitude of past climate change, the global mean temperature increase during the past 18,000 years is similar to that predicted for carbon dioxide--doubling. Simulating the climatic changes of the past 18,000 years, as well as the warmer-than-present climate of 6000 years ago and the climate of the last interglacial, around 126,000 years ago, provides an excellent opportunity to test the models that are being used in global climate change research. During the past several years, we have used paleoclimatic data to test the accuracy of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, Version 0, after changing its boundary conditions to those appropriate for past climates. We have assembled regional and near-global paleoclimatic data sets of pollen, lake level, and marine plankton data and calibrated many of the data in terms of climatic variables. We have also developed methods that permit direct quantitative comparisons between the data and model results. Our research has shown that comparing the model results with the data is an evolutionary process, because the models, the data, and the methods for comparison are continually being improved. During 1992, we have completed new modeling experiments, further analyzed previous model experiments, compiled new paleodata, made new comparisons between data and model results, and participated in workshops on paleoclimatic modeling.

  12. Atmospheric Climate Model Experiments Performed at Multiple Horizontal Resolutions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phillips, T; Bala, G; Gleckler, P; Lobell, D; Mirin, A; Maxwell, R; Rotman, D

    2007-12-21T23:59:59.000Z

    This report documents salient features of version 3.3 of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.3) and of three climate simulations in which the resolution of its latitude-longitude grid was systematically increased. For all these simulations of global atmospheric climate during the period 1980-1999, observed monthly ocean surface temperatures and sea ice extents were prescribed according to standard Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) values. These CAM3.3 resolution experiments served as control runs for subsequent simulations of the climatic effects of agricultural irrigation, the focus of a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project. The CAM3.3 model was able to replicate basic features of the historical climate, although biases in a number of atmospheric variables were evident. Increasing horizontal resolution also generally failed to ameliorate the large-scale errors in most of the climate variables that could be compared with observations. A notable exception was the simulation of precipitation, which incrementally improved with increasing resolution, especially in regions where orography plays a central role in determining the local hydroclimate.

  13. Influence of Climate Change Mitigation Technology on Global Demands of Water for Electricity Generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Dooley, James J.; Smith, Steven J.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.

    2013-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

    Globally, electricity generation accounts for a large and potentially growing water demand, and as such is an important component to assessments of global and regional water scarcity. However, the current suite—as well as potential future suites—of thermoelectric generation technologies has a very wide range of water demand intensities, spanning two orders of magnitude. As such, the evolution of the generation mix is important for the future water demands of the sector. This study uses GCAM, an integrated assessment model, to analyze the global electric sector’s water demands in three futures of climate change mitigation policy and two technology strategies. We find that despite five- to seven-fold expansion of the electric sector as a whole from 2005 to 2095, global electric sector water withdrawals remain relatively stable, due to the retirement of existing power plants with water-intensive once-through flow cooling systems. In the scenarios examined here, climate policies lead to the large-scale deployment of advanced, low-emissions technologies such as carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), concentrating solar power, and engineered geothermal systems. In particular, we find that the large-scale deployment of CCS technologies does not increase long-term water consumption from hydrocarbon-fueled power generation as compared with a no-policy scenario without CCS. Moreover, in sensitivity scenarios where low-emissions electricity technologies are required to use dry cooling systems, we find that the consequent additional costs and efficiency reductions do not limit the utility of these technologies in achieving cost-effective whole-system emissions mitigation.

  14. Climate Model Response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Caldeira, Ken; Boucher, Olivier; Robock, Alan; Rasch, Philip J.; Alterskjaer, Kari; Bou Karam, Diana; Cole, Jason N.; Curry, Charles L.; Haywood, J.; Irvine, Peter; Ji, Duoying; Jones, A.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Lunt, Daniel; Moore, John; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Schulz, M.; Singh, Balwinder; Tilmes, S.; Watanabe, Shingo; Yang, Shuting; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2013-08-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Solar geoengineering—deliberate reduction in the amount of solar radiation retained by the Earth—has been proposed as a means of counteracting some of the climatic effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We present results from Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which 12 climate models have simulated the climate response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial concentrations brought into radiative balance via a globally uniform reduction in insolation. Models show this reduction largely offsets global mean surface temperature increases due to quadrupled CO2 concentrations and prevents 97% of the Arctic sea ice loss that would otherwise occur under high CO2 levels but, compared to the preindustrial climate, leaves the tropics cooler (-0.3 K) and the poles warmer (+0.8 K). Annual mean precipitation minus evaporation anomalies for G1 are less than 0.2mmday-1 in magnitude over 92% of the globe, but some tropical regions receive less precipitation, in part due to increased moist static stability and suppression of convection. Global average net primary productivity increases by 120% in G1 over simulated preindustrial levels, primarily from CO2 fertilization, but also in part due to reduced plant heat stress compared to a high CO2 world with no geoengineering. All models show that uniform solar geoengineering in G1 cannot simultaneously return regional and global temperature and hydrologic cycle intensity to preindustrial levels.

  15. A look at the ocean in the EC-Earth climate model Andreas Sterl Richard Bintanja Laurent Brodeau Emily Gleeson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haak, Hein

    to the special issue on EC-Earth, a global climate and earth system model based on the seasonal forecast system-011-1239-2 #12;phytoplankton) processes are involved. To study such complex interactions, Earth System Models

  16. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO sub 2 and climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth's surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society's ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  17. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth`s surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society`s ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  18. How will changes in global climate influence California?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weare, B C

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, UC Davis.climate change impacts on water for agriculture and otherincreased flooding and reduced water availability, higher

  19. adopting global climate: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    and biomass which are environmentally clean is aimed at diversification of the energy matrix, mitigating against climate change and providing alternatives to the use of...

  20. Projecting Impacts of Global Climate Change on the U.S. Forest and Agriculture Sectors and Carbon Budgets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarl, Bruce A.

    Projecting Impacts of Global Climate Change on the U.S. Forest and Agriculture Sectors and Carbon Impacts of Global Climate Change on the U.S. Forest and Agriculture Sectors and Carbon Budgets of possible deleterious effects of climate change on agricultural and forest productivity has been raised

  1. RISNEWS DECEMBER2007NO Global climate and energy challenges can be solved

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    RISØNEWSNO 22007PAGE1 RISØNEWS DECEMBER2007NO 2 Global climate and energy challenges can be solved). Within the field of sustainable energy, we conduct research into bioenergy, fuel cells and hydrogen, emerging energy tech- nologies, society and systems, and wind power. If we wish to limit the global

  2. Project EARTH-12-SHELL1: Global expression of climatic and palaeoceanographic events in black shales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Henderson, Gideon

    geochronology, the expression of the global Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T- OAE) ­ a major black shale eventProject EARTH-12-SHELL1: Global expression of climatic and palaeoceanographic events in black shales: generation of new high-resolution records from the Jurassic of the Neuquen Basin, Argentina

  3. Global impacts of abrupt climate change: an initial assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Watson, Andrew

    in progress". Whilst they are commented on by Tyndall researchers, they have not been subject to a full peer that the climate system has in the last few thousand years undergone a number of rapid or step changes, at regional of such abrupt climate changes1 include: · regional cooling following a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation

  4. A Global Land System Framework for Integrated Climate-Change Assessments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schlosser, C. Adam

    Land ecosystems play a major role in the global cycles of energy, water, carbon and nutrients. A Global Land System (GLS) framework has been developed for the Integrated Global Systems Model Version 2 (IGSM2) to simulate ...

  5. The Contribution of Biomass to Emissions Mitigation under a Global Climate Policy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Winchester, N.

    What will large-scale global bioenergy production look like? We investigate this question by developing a detailed representation of bioenergy in a global economy-wide model. We develop a scenario with a global carbon ...

  6. Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and Modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    facing California, with projected impacts reaching every sector of the state's economy and public health. The energy sector will not be spared. The potential repercussions of climate change include frequent heat waves, increased energy consumption, reduced hydropower generation in the summer season

  7. programs in climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    existing programs in climate change science and infrastructure. The Laboratory has a 15- year history in climate change science. The Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling (COSIM) project develops and maintains advanced numerical models of the ocean, sea ice, and ice sheets for use in global climate change

  8. Constraining climate model properties using optimal fingerprint detection methods

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forest, Chris Eliot.; Allen, Myles R.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H.

    We present a method for constraining key properties of the climate system that are important for climate prediction (climate sensitivity and rate of heat penetration into the deep ocean) by comparing a model's response to ...

  9. Constraining Climate Model Parameters from Observed 20th Century Changes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forest, Chris Eliot

    We present revised probability density functions for climate model parameters (effective climate sensitivity, the rate of deep-ocean heat uptake, and the strength of the net aerosol forcing) that are based on climate change ...

  10. Climate modeler David Stainforth. Photo courtesy of David Stainforth.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stevenson, Paul

    Climate modeler David Stainforth. Photo courtesy of David Stainforth. 3. SCIENCE: Intrepid British climate modeler sets out to win over doubters (07/19/2011) Jeremy Lovell, E&E European correspondent the climate debate by explaining why uncertainty has to be a part of the computerized climate models

  11. REVIEW Open Access Climate-smart agriculture global research agenda

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pasternack, Gregory B.

    , William R Horwath2 , Bryan M Jenkins10 , Ermias Kebreab11 , Rik Leemans12 , Leslie Lipper13 , Mark N Wollenberg23 , Lovell S Jarvis24 and Louise E Jackson2 Abstract Background: Climate-smart agriculture (CSA

  12. Institutionalizing Unsustainability: The Paradox of Global Climate Governance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stevenson, Hayley

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    on International Emissions Trading. Global Envi- ronmentalTask Group on Emissions Trading. Final Report: Introductionand Crawshaw, David. 2006. Emissions Trading Inquiry a Joke:

  13. New Directions: A facelift for the picture of the global energy balance Earth's climate is largely regulated by the global energy balance,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischlin, Andreas

    New Directions: A facelift for the picture of the global energy balance Earth's climate is largely regulated by the global energy balance, which considers the energy flows within the climate system a perturbation of this energy balance, through a modification of the energy flows in the polluted atmosphere

  14. Improved Offshore Wind Resource Assessment in Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arent, D.; Sullivan, P.; Heimiller, D.; Lopez, A.; Eurek, K.; Badger, J.; Jorgensen, H. E.; Kelly, M.; Clarke, L.; Luckow, P.

    2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper introduces a technique for digesting geospatial wind-speed data into areally defined -- country-level, in this case -- wind resource supply curves. We combined gridded wind-vector data for ocean areas with bathymetry maps, country exclusive economic zones, wind turbine power curves, and other datasets and relevant parameters to build supply curves that estimate a country's offshore wind resource defined by resource quality, depth, and distance-from-shore. We include a single set of supply curves -- for a particular assumption set -- and study some implications of including it in a global energy model. We also discuss the importance of downscaling gridded wind vector data to capturing the full resource potential, especially over land areas with complex terrain. This paper includes motivation and background for a statistical downscaling methodology to account for terrain effects with a low computational burden. Finally, we use this forum to sketch a framework for building synthetic electric networks to estimate transmission accessibility of renewable resource sites in remote areas.

  15. Integrated science model for assessment of climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jain, A.K.; Wuebbles, D.J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Kheshgi, H.S. [Exxon Research and Engineering Co., Annandale, NJ (United States)

    1994-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Integrated assessment models are intended to represent processes that govern physical, ecological, economic and social systems. This report describes a scientific model relating emissions to global temperature and sea level. This model is intended to be one component of an integrated assessment model which is, of course, much more comprehensive. The model is able to reproduce past changes in CO{sub 2} concentration, global temperature, and sea level. The model is used to estimate the emissions rates required to lead to stabilization of CO{sub 2} at various levels. The model is also used to estimate global temperature rise, the rate of temperature change, and sea level rise driven by IPCC emissions scenarios. The emission of fossil fuel CO{sub 2} is modeled to have the largest long term effect on climate. Results do show the importance of expected changes of trace greenhouse gases other than CO{sub 2} in the near future. Because of the importance of these other trace gases, further work is recommended to more accurately estimate their effects.

  16. The Great Season Climatic Oscillation and the Global Warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boucenna, Ahmed

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The present earth warming up is often explained by the atmosphere gas greenhouse effect. This explanation is in contradiction with the thermodynamics second law. The warming up by greenhouse effect is quite improbable. It is cloud reflection that gives to the earth s ground its 15 degres C mean temperature. Since the reflection of the radiation by gases is negligible, the role of the atmosphere greenhouse gases in the earth warming up by earth radiation reflection loses its importance. We think that natural climatic oscillations contribute more to earth climatic disturbances. The oscillation that we hypothesize to exist has a long period (800 to 1000 years). The glacier melting and regeneration cycles lead to variations in the cold region ocean water density and thermal conductibility according to their salinity. These variations lead one to think about a macro climate oscillating between maximum hot and minimum cold temperatures. This oscillation is materialized by the passages of the planet through hot, mil...

  17. The Role of Asia in Mitigating Climate Change: Results from the Asia Modeling Exercise

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Krey, Volker; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Jiang, Kejun; Kainuma, M.; Kriegler, Elmar; Luderer, Gunnar; Shukla, Priyadarshi R.

    2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In 2010, Asia accounted for 60% of global population, 39% of Gross World Product, 44% of global energy consumption and nearly half of the world’s energy system CO2 emissions. Thus, Asia is an important region to consider in any discussion of climate change or climate change mitigation. This paper explores the role of Asia in mitigating climate change, by comparing the results of 23 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. We focus our analysis on seven key areas: base year data, future energy use and emissions absent climate policy, the effect of urban and rural development on future energy use and emissions, the role of technology in emissions mitigation, regional emissions mitigation, and national climate policies

  18. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Jana; Luderer, Gunnar; Ashina, Shuichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Kitous, Alban; Mejean, Aurelie; Paroussos, Leonidas; Sano, Fuminori; Turton, Hal; Wilson, Charlie; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economic systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. This article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of integrated assessment models to classify differences among models based on their carbon price responses. Model diagnostics can uncover patterns and provide insights into why, under a given scenario, certain types of models behave in observed ways. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study with 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to more easily explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

  19. Progress Report 2008: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Drake, John B [ORNL; Worley, Patrick H [ORNL; Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Jones, Phil [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This project employs multi-disciplinary teams to accelerate development of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), based at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). A consortium of eight Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories collaborate with NCAR and the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). The laboratories are Argonne (ANL), Brookhaven (BNL) Los Alamos (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore (LLNL), Oak Ridge (ORNL), Pacific Northwest (PNNL) and Sandia (SNL). The work plan focuses on scalablity for petascale computation and extensibility to a more comprehensive earth system model. Our stated goal is to support the DOE mission in climate change research by helping ... To determine the range of possible climate changes over the 21st century and beyond through simulations using a more accurate climate system model that includes the full range of human and natural climate feedbacks with increased realism and spatial resolution.

  20. The Community Land Model and Its Climate Statistics as a Component of the Community Climate System Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoffman, Forrest M.

    to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC; i.e., the followThe Community Land Model and Its Climate Statistics as a Component of the Community Climate System carried out with the new version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). This paper reports

  1. Little Ice Age Glaciation in Alaska: A record of recent global climatic change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calkin, P.E.; Wiles, G.C.

    1992-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    General global cooling and temperature fluctuation accompanied by expansion of mountain glaciers characterized the Little Ice Age of about A.D. 1200 through A.D. 1900. The effects of such temperature changes appear first and are strongest at high latitudes. Therefore the Little Ice Age record of glacial fluctuation in Alaska may provide a good proxy for these events and a test for models of future climatic change. Holocene expansions began here as early as 7000 B.P. and locally show a periodicity of 350 years after about 4500 years B.P. The Little Ice Age followed a late Holocene interval of minor ice advance and a subsequent period of ice margin recession lasting one to seven centuries. The timing of expansions since about A.D. 1200 have often varied between glaciers, but these are the most pervasive glacial events of the Holocene in Alaska and frequently represent ice marginal maxima for this interval. At least two major expansions are, apparent in forefields of both land-terminating and fjord-calving glaciers, but the former display the most reliable and detailed climatic record. Major maxima occurred by the 16th century and into the mid-18th century. Culmination of advances occurred throughout Alaska during the 19th century followed within a few decades by general glacial retreat. Concurrently, equilibrium line altitudes have been raised 100-400 m, representing a rise of 2-3 deg C in mean summer temperature.

  2. Determining Greenland Ice Sheet sensitivity to regional climate change: one-way coupling of a 3-D thermo-mechanical ice sheet model with a mesoscale climate model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    ice sheet model with a mesoscale climate model By Nicole-ice sheet model with a mesoscale climate model Copyrightice sheet model with a mesoscale climate model by Nicole-

  3. Climate Extremes, Uncertainty and Impacts Climate Change Challenge: The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Climate Extremes, Uncertainty and Impacts Climate Change Challenge: The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, AR4) has resulted in a wider acceptance of global climate change climate extremes and change impacts. Uncertainties in process studies, climate models, and associated

  4. Simulations of Present and Future Climates in the Western United States with Four Nested Regional Climate Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Duffy, Phil; Arritt, R.; Coquard, J.; Gutowski, William; Han, J.; Iorio, J.; Kim, Jongil; Leung, Lai R.; Roads, J.; Zeledon, E.

    2006-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

    We analyze simulations of present and future climates in the western U.S. performed with four regional climate models (RCMs) nested within two global ocean-atmosphere climate models. Our primary goal is to assess the range of regional climate responses to increased greenhouse gases in available RCM simulations. The four RCMs used different geographical domains, different increased greenhouse gas scenarios for future-climate simulations, and (in some cases) different lateral boundary conditions. For simulations of the present climate, we compare RCM results to observations and to results of the GCM that provided lateral boundary conditions to the RCM. For future-climate (increased greenhouse gas) simulations, we compare RCM results to each other and to results of the driving GCMs. When results are spatially averaged over the western U.S., we find that the results of each RCM closely follow those of the driving GCM in the same region, in both present and future climates. This is true even though the study area is in some cases a small fraction of the RCM domain. Precipitation responses predicted by the RCMs are in many regions not statistically significant compared to interannual variability. Where the predicted precipitation responses are statistically significant, they are positive. The models agree that near-surface temperatures will increase, but do not agree on the spatial pattern of this increase. The four RCMs produce very different estimates of water content of snow in the present climate, and of the change in this water content in response to increased greenhouse gases.

  5. LINKING MICROBES TO CLIMATE: INCORPORATING MICROBIAL ACTIVITY INTO CLIMATE MODELS COLLOQUIUM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DeLong, Edward; Harwood, Caroline; Reid, Ann

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report explains the connection between microbes and climate, discusses in general terms what modeling is and how it applied to climate, and discusses the need for knowledge in microbial physiology, evolution, and ecology to contribute to the determination of fluxes and rates in climate models. It recommends with a multi-pronged approach to address the gaps.

  6. Towards Ultra-High Resolution Models of Climate and Weather

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wehner, Michael; Oliker, Leonid; Shalf, John

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Models of Climate and Weather Michael Wehner, Leonid Oliker,modeling climate change and weather prediction is one of thedelity in both short term weather prediction and long term

  7. RESEARCH ARTICLE A novel soil organic C model using climate, soil type

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    RESEARCH ARTICLE A novel soil organic C model using climate, soil type and management data-Verlag, France 2012 Abstract This report evidences factors controlling soil or- ganic carbon at the national scale by modelling data of 2,158 soil samples from France. The global soil carbon amount, of about 1

  8. PAGES 111–112 Climate and Earth system models are the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    unknown authors

    only tools used to make predictions of future climate change. Such predictions are subject to considerable uncertainties, and understanding these uncertainties has clear and important policy implications. This Forum highlights the concepts of reductionism and emergence, and past climate variability, to illuminate some of the uncertainties faced by those wishing to model the future evolution of global climate. General circulation models (GCMs) of the atmosphere-ocean system are scientists’ principal tools for providing information about future climate. GCMs consequently have considerable influence on climate change–related policy questions. Over the past decade, there have been significant attempts, mainly by statisticians and mathematicians, to explore the uncertainties in model simulations of possible futures, accompanied by growing debate about the interpretation of these simulations as aids in societal decisions. In this Forum, we discuss atmosphere-ocean GCMs in the context of reductionist and emergent approaches to scientific study.

  9. Sensitivity of China's ozone air quality to 2000-2050 global changes of1 climate and emissions2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wu, Shiliang

    1 Sensitivity of China's ozone air quality to 2000-2050 global changes of1 climate and emissions2 3 emissions of ozone precursors. The climate and16 emission effect in combination will increase afternoon mean increases18 in global (excluding China) anthropogenic emissions, 37% to Chinese emission19 increases

  10. Local Response to Global Climate Change: The Role of Local Development Plans in Climate Change Management 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grover, Himanshu

    2011-10-21T23:59:59.000Z

    Climate change is possibly the greatest threat facing human society in this century. The response to this challenge has been dominated by international negotiations for controlling greenhouse gas emissions. More recently there are efforts...

  11. Understanding Global Climate Change: 2011 (an instructional DVD)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Howat, Ian M.

    science, and ecology. · Is based on reliable information from the National Aeronautics and Space the Earth 2. Earth's Grand Cycles 3. Energy in the Global System 4. Historical Perspective 5. Remote Sensing the National Science Foundation's Science and Technology Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CRe

  12. Arctic ice export events and their potential impact on global climate during the late Pleistocene

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Darby, Dennis

    Arctic ice export events and their potential impact on global climate during the late Pleistocene export events are identified from the Laurentide and the Innuitian ice sheets, between 14 and 34 ka, the Arctic export events appear to occur prior to Heinrich events. INDEX TERMS: 4207 Oceanography: General

  13. Sea Ice in the Global Climate System Kenneth M. Golden1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Golden, Kenneth M.

    Sea Ice in the Global Climate System Kenneth M. Golden1 , Elizabeth Hunke2 , Cecilia Bitz3 Figure 2. The Antarctic sea ice pack with an open lead in the distance. (K. M. Golden) Figure 1. Pancake ice in the Southern Ocean off the coast of East Antarctica. (K. M. Golden

  14. Estimating future global per capita water availability based on changes in climate and population

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Minnesota, University of

    Estimating future global per capita water availability based on changes in climate and population: Received 22 September 2011 Received in revised form 16 December 2011 Accepted 26 January 2012 Available availability a b s t r a c t Human populations are profoundly affected by water stress, or the lack

  15. Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oppenheimer, Michael

    Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change S I M O, Australia Abstract Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef- building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent

  16. CLIMATE SCIENCE The Community Climate System Model results from a multi-agency collaboration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Long, Nicholas

    . Could global warming be responsible for the July 2006 heat waves in Europe and the United States? Should- ter(NCDC),whicharchivesallweatherdataforthe nation, reports that global surface temperatures have, the DOEisdedicatedtoadvancingclimateresearchin order to elucidate the causes of climate change, includingtheroleofcarbonloadingfromfossilfuel use

  17. Global Climate and Energy Project | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are8COaBulkTransmissionSitingProcess.pdfGetec AG Contracting Jump to:Echo, Maryland:Glenwillow,OpenEIGlobal Climate and

  18. Global empirical wind model for the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere. I. Prevailing wind

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Global empirical wind model for the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere. I. Prevailing wind Y. I. An updated empirical climatic zonally aver- aged prevailing wind model for the upper mesosphere/ lower of monthly mean winds from meteor radar and MF radar measurements at more than 40 stations, well distributed

  19. Valuing Climate Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models: The MIT IGSM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reilly, John

    2012-05-22T23:59:59.000Z

    We discuss a strategy for investigating the impacts of climate change on Earth’s physical, biological and human resources and links to their socio-economic consequences. The features of the integrated global system framework ...

  20. Pew Center on Global Climate Change | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directedAnnual SiteofEvaluatingGroupPerfectenergy International Limited JumpPetbowPew Center on Global

  1. What is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, M. L.; Rajagopalan, K.; Chung, S. H.; Jiang, X.; Harrison, J. H.; Nergui, T.; Guenther, Alex B.; Miller, C.; Reyes, J.; Tague, C. L.; Choate, J. S.; Salathe, E.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Adam, J. C.

    2014-05-16T23:59:59.000Z

    Regional climate change impact (CCI) studies have widely involved downscaling and bias-correcting (BC) Global Climate Model (GCM)-projected climate for driving land surface models. However, BC may cause uncertainties in projecting hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to future climate due to the impaired spatiotemporal covariance of climate variables and a breakdown of physical conservation principles. Here we quantify the impact of BC on simulated climate-driven changes in water variables(evapotranspiration, ET; runoff; snow water equivalent, SWE; and water demand for irrigation), crop yield, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC), nitric oxide (NO) emissions, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) Region. We also quantify the impacts on net primary production (NPP) over a small watershed in the region (HJ Andrews). Simulation results from the coupled ECHAM5/MPI-OM model with A1B emission scenario were firstly dynamically downscaled to 12 km resolutions with WRF model. Then a quantile mapping based statistical downscaling model was used to downscale them into 1/16th degree resolution daily climate data over historical and future periods. Two series climate data were generated according to the option of bias-correction (i.e. with bias-correction (BC) and without bias-correction, NBC). Impact models were then applied to estimate hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to both BC and NBC meteorological datasets. These im20 pact models include a macro-scale hydrologic model (VIC), a coupled cropping system model (VIC-CropSyst), an ecohydrologic model (RHESSys), a biogenic emissions model (MEGAN), and a nutrient export model (Global-NEWS). Results demonstrate that the BC and NBC climate data provide consistent estimates of the climate-driven changes in water fluxes (ET, runoff, and water demand), VOCs (isoprene and monoterpenes) and NO emissions, mean crop yield, and river DIN export over the PNW domain. However, significant differences rise from projected SWE, crop yield from dry lands, and HJ Andrews’s ET between BC and NBC data. Even though BC post-processing has no significant impacts on most of the studied variables when taking PNW as a whole, their effects have large spatial variations and some local areas are substantially influenced. In addition, there are months during which BC and NBC post-processing produces significant differences in projected changes, such as summer runoff. Factor-controlled simulations indicate that BC post-processing of precipitation and temperature both substantially contribute to these differences at region scales. We conclude that there are trade-offs between using BC climate data for offline CCI studies vs. direct modeled climate data. These trade-offs should be considered when designing integrated modeling frameworks for specific applications; e.g., BC may be more important when considering impacts on reservoir operations in mountainous watersheds than when investigating impacts on biogenic emissions and air quality (where VOCs are a primary indicator).

  2. Chemistry climate model simulations of1 spring Antarctic ozone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wirosoetisno, Djoko

    Chemistry climate model simulations of1 spring Antarctic ozone 1234567 89A64BC7DEF72B4 19B34EE3293C climate model simulations of spring Antarctic ozone John Austin,1,2 H. Struthers,3 J. Scinocca,4 D. A) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1b Scenario. The simulations of the Antarctic ozone hole are compared

  3. Modeling Climate Change Adaptation: Challenges, Recent Developments and Future Directions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wing, Ian Sue

    Modeling Climate Change Adaptation: Challenges, Recent Developments and Future Directions Karen of modeling practice in the field of integrated assessment of climate change and ways forward. Past efforts assessments of climate change have concentrated on developing baseline emissions scenarios and analyzing

  4. Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4 Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reif, Rafael

    Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4 C. M. BITZ Atmospheric climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.208C for 18 horizontal). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 18 resolution is 1.728C, which is about 0.28C higher than in CCSM3

  5. Global estimation of evapotranspiration using a leaf area index-based surface energy and water balance model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Martin, Timothy

    using Advanced Very High Res- olution Radiometer Lai data, Climate Research Unit climate dataGlobal estimation of evapotranspiration using a leaf area index-based surface energy and water-relative-humidity-based two-source (ARTS) E model that simulates the surface energy balance, soil water balance

  6. Atmospheric Tides in the Latest Generation of Climate Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Covey, Curt

    For atmospheric tides driven by solar heating, the database of climate model output used in the most recent assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirms and extends the authors’ earlier ...

  7. A Framework for Modeling Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the US associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources ...

  8. Evaluating the present-day simulation of clouds, precipitation, and radiation in climate models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robert, Pincus

    , and net cloud radiative effect, projected cloud fraction, and surface precipitation rate) over the globalEvaluating the present-day simulation of clouds, precipitation, and radiation in climate models] This paper describes a set of metrics for evaluating the simulation of clouds, radiation, and precipitation

  9. SWS 5182: Earth System Analysis Catalogue Description: Analysis of global-scale interdependences between climate, biogeochemical

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ma, Lena

    System Model Carbon sequestration and climate mitigation potential of vegetation and soils 12 - 13 Earth fuel 11 Terrestrial biogeochemistry Chapter 5 and Chapter 6 Account for land carbon cycle in your Earth

  10. The dilemma of fossil fuel use and global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Judkins, R.R.; Fulkerson, W. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)); Sanghvi, M.K. (Amoco Corp., Chicago, IL (USA))

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The use of fossil fuels and relationship to climate change is discussed. As the use of fossil fuels has grown, the problems of protecting the environment and human health and safety have also grown, providing a continuing challenge to technological and managerial innovation. Today that challenge is to control atmospheric emissions from combustion, particularly those emissions that cause acidic deposition, urban pollution, and increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. Technology for reducing acidic deposition is available and needs only to be adopted, and the remedies for urban pollution are being developed and tested. How effective or expensive these will be remains to be determined. The control of emissions of the greenhouse gas, CO{sub 2}, seems possible only be reducing the total amounts of fossil fuels used worldwide, and by substituting efficient natural gas technologies for coal. Long before physical depletion forces the transition away from fossil fuels, it is at least plausible and even likely that the greenhouse effect will impose a show-stopping constraint. If such a transition were soon to be necessary, the costs would be very high because substitute energy sources are either limited or expensive or undesirable for other reasons. Furthermore, the costs would be unevenly felt and would be more oppressive for developing nations because they would be least able to pay and, on average, their use rates of fossil fuels are growing much faster than those of many industrialized countries. It is prudent, therefore, to try to manage the use of fossil fuels as if a greenhouse constraint is an important possibility.

  11. Local Response to Global Climate Change: The Role of Local Development Plans in Climate Change Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grover, Himanshu

    2011-10-21T23:59:59.000Z

    in managing threats from natural hazards (Berke & Beatley, 1992; Brody, 2003a; Nelson & Steven), managing land use distribution (Kent & Jones, 1990), enhancing ecosystem management (Brody, 2003c; Brody, Carrasco, & Highfield, 2003; Brody, Highfield... & Godschalk, 2008; Brody, 2003b; Brody, Carrasco, et al., 2003; Burby, 1999; Burby, French, & Nelson, 1998; Burby & May, 1997; Dalton & Burby, 1994; Godschalk, Beatley, Berke, Brower, & Kaiser, 1999). Similarly, climate change researchers have identified...

  12. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Auffhammer, Maximilian [University of California at Berkeley; Hsiang, Solomon M. [Princeton University; Schlenker, Wolfram [Columbia University; Sobel, Adam H. [Columbia University

    2013-06-28T23:59:59.000Z

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  13. How Do We Know that Human Activities Have Influenced Global Climate?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Santer, Benjamin D.

    2007-11-05T23:59:59.000Z

    Human activities have significantly altered not only the chemical composition of Earth's atmosphere, but also the climate system. Human influences have led to increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases, decreases in stratospheric ozone, and changes in the atmospheric burdens of sulfate and soot aerosols. All of these atmospheric constituents interact with incoming solar and outgoing terrestrial radiation. Human-induced changes in the concentrations of these constituents modify the natural radiative balance of Earth's atmosphere, and therefore perturb climate. Quantifying the size of the human effect on climate is a difficult statistical problem. 'Fingerprint' methods are typically used for this purpose. These methods involve rigorous statistical comparisons of modeled and observed climate change patterns. Fingerprinting assumes that each individual influence on climate has a unique signature in climate records. The climate fingerprints in response to different forcing factors are typically estimated with computer models, which can be used to perform the controlled experiments that we cannot conduct in the real world. One criticism of the findings of previous scientific assessments is that they have relied heavily on fingerprint studies involving changes in near-surface temperature. Recent fingerprint work, however, has considered a variety of other climate variables, such as ocean heat content, stratospheric temperatures, Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, sea level pressure, atmospheric water vapor, and the height of the tropopause. These studies illustrate that a human-induced climate change signal is identifiable in many different variables and geographic regions, and that the climate system is telling us an internally- and physically-consistent story.

  14. How Do We Know That Human Activities Have Influenced Global Climate?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dr. Benjamin D. Santer

    2007-11-05T23:59:59.000Z

    Human activities have significantly altered not only the chemical composition of Earth's atmosphere, but also the climate system. Human influences have led to increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases, decreases in stratospheric ozone, and changes in the atmospheric burdens of sulfate and soot aerosols. All of these atmospheric constituents interact with incoming solar and outgoing terrestrial radiation. Human-induced changes in the concentrations of these constituents modify the natural radiative balance of Earth's atmosphere, and therefore perturb climate. Quantifying the size of the human effect on climate is a difficult statistical problem. "Fingerprint" methods are typically used for this purpose. These methods involve rigorous statistical comparisons of modeled and observed climate change patterns. Fingerprinting assumes that each individual influence on climate has a unique signature in climate records. The climate fingerprints in response to different forcing factors are typically estimated with computer models, which can be used to perform the controlled experiments that we cannot conduct in the real world. One criticism of the findings of previous scientific assessments is that they have relied heavily on fingerprint studies involving changes in near-surface temperature. Recent fingerprint work, however, has considered a variety of other climate variables, such as ocean heat content, stratospheric temperatures, Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, sea level pressure, atmospheric water vapor, and the height of the tropopause. These studies illustrate that a human-induced climate change signal is identifiable in many different variables and geographic regions, and that the climate system is telling us an internally- and physically-consistent story.

  15. Global Ecology and Biogeography, (Global Ecol. Biogeogr.) (2013) 22, 470482, DOI: 10.1111/geb.12012 Soil water balance performs better than climatic water variables in tree species

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    1 Global Ecology and Biogeography, (Global Ecol. Biogeogr.) (2013) 22, 470­482, DOI: 10.1111/geb water balance indices to predict the ecological niches of forest tree species. Location: France Methods aiming to determine the ecological niches of plant species and their responses to climate change. Key

  16. Project title: Global environmental change: biomineral proxies of ocean chemistry and climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2009-07-10T23:59:59.000Z

    #8; FINAL PROJECT REPORT Please remember to provide CMI with electronic copies of any outputs that you have generated. This might include papers, presentations, patents, course material, attendance lists, website addresses, etc. Project... CMI Project Review: Project Name Global Environmental Change: Biomineral Proxies of Ocean Chemistry and Climate Number 003/P Report Period 22 June 2001- 30 April 2004 Project Name Cambridge PI, affiliation Harry Elderfield (Earth...

  17. Thunderstorms in a changing climate: A cloudresolving modeling study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maccabe, Barney

    prediction of surface water and groundwater dynamics under projected climate change scenarios Thunderstorms in a changing climate: A cloudresolving modeling study Joseph Galewsky@unm.edu One of the potential impacts of a changing climate is an increase in the severity of thunderstorms

  18. Post-doctoral Position Title Quantify the net global climate impacts of past and future land-

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pouyanne, Nicolas

    objective is to make this protocol widely available so that other earth system modeling groups outside uses and land use changes in global earth system models, and test the impact of various implementation

  19. 15.023J / 12.848J / ESD.128J Global Climate Change: Economics, Science, and Policy, Spring 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jacoby, Henry D.

    Introduces scientific, economic, and ecological issues underlying the threat of global climate change, and the institutions engaged in negotiating an international response. Develops an integrated approach to analysis of ...

  20. 15.023J / 12.848J / ESD.128J Global Climate Change: Economics, Science, and Policy, Spring 2004

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jacoby, Henry D.

    Introduces scientific, economic, and ecological issues underlying the threat of global climate change, and the institutions engaged in negotiating an international response. Develops an integrated approach to analysis of ...

  1. Energy and Climate Change: 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy, and the Environment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment: Energy and Climate Change will develop and advance partnerships that focus on transitioning the world to a new ...

  2. Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling (COSIM)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625govInstrumentstdmadapInactiveVisiting the TWPSuccessAlamosCharacterization2Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling

  3. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 2 | NOVEMBER 2012 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange 775 vidence is clear that Earth's global average climate has warmed

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischlin, Andreas

    NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 2 | NOVEMBER 2012 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange 775 E vidence anthropogenic climate change on timescales of a few decades and spatial scales smaller than continen- tal2 in climate change projections are due to model shortcomings, and it is sometimes confidently asserted

  4. Modeling Abrupt Change in Global Sea Level Arising from Ocean - Ice-Sheet Interaction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    David M Holland

    2011-09-24T23:59:59.000Z

    It is proposed to develop, validate, and apply a coupled ocean ice-sheet model to simulate possible, abrupt future change in global sea level. This research is to be carried out collaboratively between an academic institute and a Department of Energy Laboratory (DOE), namely, the PI and a graduate student at New York University (NYU) and climate model researchers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The NYU contribution is mainly in the area of incorporating new physical processes into the model, while the LANL efforts are focused on improved numerics and overall model development. NYU and LANL will work together on applying the model to a variety of modeling scenarios of recent past and possible near-future abrupt change to the configuration of the periphery of the major ice sheets. The project's ultimate goal is to provide a robust, accurate prediction of future global sea level change, a feat that no fully-coupled climate model is currently capable of producing. This proposal seeks to advance that ultimate goal by developing, validating, and applying a regional model that can simulate the detailed processes involved in sea-level change due to oceanÃ?Â? ice-sheet interaction. Directly modeling ocean ice-sheet processes in a fully-coupled global climate model is not a feasible activity at present given the near-complete absence of development of any such causal mechanism in these models to date.

  5. Recent Climate Changes in Precipitable Water in the Global Tropics as Revealed in NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hawai'i at Manoa, University of

    1 Recent Climate Changes in Precipitable Water in the Global Tropics as Revealed in NCEP: 1 (808) 956-2877 Email: chu@hawaii.edu #12;2 Abstract For the first time, long-term climate changes/NCAR Reanalysis Igor I. Zveryaev and Pao-Shin Chu* P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS, Moscow, Russia

  6. Linear analysis of surface temperature dynamics and climate sensitivity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wu, Wei

    2007-04-25T23:59:59.000Z

    Spectral properties of global surface temperature and uncertainties of global climate sensitivity are explored in this work through the medium of Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCMs) and observational surface temperature data. In part I, a complete...

  7. Linear analysis of surface temperature dynamics and climate sensitivity 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wu, Wei

    2007-04-25T23:59:59.000Z

    Spectral properties of global surface temperature and uncertainties of global climate sensitivity are explored in this work through the medium of Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCMs) and observational surface temperature data. In part I, a complete...

  8. UNCORRECTED Grid geometry effects on convection in ocean climate models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuhlbrodt, Till

    UNCORRECTED PROOF Grid geometry effects on convection in ocean climate models: a conceptual study is the 12 improvement of convection parameterization schemes, but the question of grid geometry also plays to an at- 14 mosphere model. Such ocean climate models have mostly structured, coarsely resolved grids. 15

  9. Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models Received: 21 November 2002 / Accepted: 11 March 2003 / Published online: 17 June 2003

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bitz, Cecilia

    the models. The range of simulated polar warming in the Arctic is from 1.5 to 4.5 times the global mean among models that the Arctic warms more than subpolar regions when subject to increasing levels hemispheres the range of warming across global climate models is considerable, with the range of warm- ing

  10. Climate Change Impacts for Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment Part 2. Models and Validation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomson, Allison M.; Rosenberg, Norman J.; Izaurralde, R Cesar C.; Brown, Robert A.

    2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    As CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how a changing climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the conterminous United States using a suite of climate change predictions from General Circulation Models (GCMs) as described in Part 1. Here we describe the agriculture model EPIC and the HUMUS water model and validate them with historical crop yields and streamflow data. We compare EPIC simulated grain and forage crop yields with historical crop yields from the US Department of Agriculture and find an acceptable level of agreement for this study. The validation of HUMUS simulated streamflow with estimates of natural streamflow from the US Geological Survey shows that the model is able to reproduce significant relationships and capture major trends.

  11. Changing Climates 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wythe, Kathy

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and a wide range of academic areas are investigating the different compo- nents. More recently, they are taking information gleaned from the global climate models and applying them to research questions pertaining to Texas. Dr. Bruce Mc...Carl, Regents Professor of agricultural economics at Texas A&M University, has researched the economics of climate change for the last 20 years. McCarl, as a lead CHANGING CLIMATES tx H2O | pg. McCarl ] tx H2O | pg. 4 Changing Climates author...

  12. Climate change and hydropower production in the Swiss Alps:potential impacts and modelling uncertainties Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11(3), 11911205, 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    climate change scenarios based on global-mean warming scenarios, the corresponding discharge model). Apart from the obvious economic interest in electricity production from water accumulated in reservoirsClimate change and hydropower production in the Swiss Alps:potential impacts and modelling

  13. Transient Climate Response in a Two-Layer Energy-Balance Model. Part I: Analytical Solution and Parameter Calibration Using CMIP5 AOGCM Experiments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ribes, Aurélien

    analyzing the global thermal properties of atmosphere­ocean coupled general circulation models (AOGCMs perturbation, some EBMs assume that the thermal energy balance of the climate system is only expressedTransient Climate Response in a Two-Layer Energy-Balance Model. Part I: Analytical Solution

  14. A Global View on the Wind Sea and Swell Climate and Variability from ERA-40 ALVARO SEMEDO

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haak, Hein

    A Global View on the Wind Sea and Swell Climate and Variability from ERA-40 ALVARO SEMEDO 2010) ABSTRACT In this paper a detailed global climatology of wind-sea and swell parameters, based on the 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) wave reanalysis

  15. Landau gauge condensates from global color model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhao Zhang; Wei-qin Zhao

    2006-03-23T23:59:59.000Z

    We compute the dimension-2 gluon pair condensate $g^2$ and the dimension-4 mixed quark-gluon condensate $$ in Landau gauge within the framework of global color model. The result for the dynamical gluon mass is within the range given by other independent determinations. The obtained mixed Landau gauge condensate $$ is clearly dependent on the definitions of the condensates. We show that the consistent result may be obtained when the same definitions are used.

  16. Probability distributions for regional climate change from uncertain global mean warming and uncertain scaling relationship Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11(3), 10971114, 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Probability distributions for regional climate change from uncertain global mean warming of probability distributions for regional climate change from uncertain global mean warming and an uncertain/precipitation per degree global mean warming. Each scaling variable is assumed to be normally distributed

  17. Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies: Building a Global Infrastructure for Climate Change Research

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Williams, Dean N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ahrens, J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Ananthakrishnan, R. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Bell, G. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Bharathi, S. [Univ. of Southern California, Marina del Ray, CA (United States). Information Science Institute; Brown, D. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Chen, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Chervenak, A. L. [Univ. of Southern California, Marina del Ray, CA (United States). Information Science Institute; Cinquini, L. [National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena, CA (United States); Drach, R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foster, I. T. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Fox, P. [Rensselaer Polytechnic Inst., Troy, NY (United States); Hankin, S. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (PMEL), Seattle, WA (United States); Harper, D. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Hook, N. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Jones, P. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Middleton, D. E. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Miller, R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Nienhouse, E. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Schweitzer, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (PMEL), Seattle, WA (United States); Schuler, R. [Univ. of Southern California, Marina del Ray, CA (United States). Information Science Institute; Shipman, G. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Shoshani, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Siebenlist, F. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sim, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Strand, W. G. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Wang, F. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Wilcox, H. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Wilhelmi, N. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2010-08-16T23:59:59.000Z

    Established within DOE’s Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC-) 2 program, with support from ASCR and BER, the Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) is a consortium of seven laboratories (Argonne National Laboratory [ANL], Los Alamos National Laboratory [LANL], Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [LBNL], Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL], National Center for Atmospheric Research [NCAR], Oak Ridge National Laboratory [ORNL], and Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [PMEL]), and two institutes (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute [RPI] and the University of Southern California, Information Sciences Institute [USC/ISI]). The consortium’s mission is to provide climate researchers worldwide with a science gateway to access data, information, models, analysis tools, and computational capabilities required to evaluate extreme-scale data sets. Its stated goals are to (1) make data more useful to climate researchers by developing collaborative technology that enhances data usability; (2) meet the specific needs that national and international climate projects have for distributed databases, data access, and data movement; (3) provide a universal and secure web-based data access portal for broad-based multi-model data collections; and (4) provide a wide range of climate data-analysis tools and diagnostic methods to international climate centers and U.S. government agencies. To this end, the ESG-CET is working to integrate all highly publicized climate data sets—from climate simulations to observations—using distributed storage management, remote high-performance units, high-bandwidth wide-area networks, and user desktop platforms in a collaborative problem-solving environment.

  18. Managing the global commons decision making and conflict resolution in response to climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rayner, S. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)); Naegeli, W.; Lund, P. (Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (USA))

    1990-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A workshop was convened to develop a better understanding of decision-making matters concerning management of the global commons and to resolve conflicts in response to climate change. This workshop report does not provide a narrative of the proceedings. The workshop program is included, as are the abstracts of the papers that were presented. Only the introductory paper on social science research by William Riebsame and the closing summary by Richard Rockwell are reprinted here. This brief report focuses instead on the deliberations of the working groups that developed during the workshop. 4 figs., 1 tab.

  19. The rapidly evolving field of decadal climate prediction, using initialized climate models to produce time-evolving predictions of regional climate, is producing new results for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , and it is on those time scales of interest to water managers that decadal climate prediction is being appliedThe rapidly evolving field of decadal climate prediction, using initialized climate models to produce time-evolving predictions of regional climate, is producing new results for predictions

  20. Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ...

  1. Climate response to tropical cyclone-induced ocean mixing in an1 Earth system model of intermediate complexity2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Climate response to tropical cyclone-induced ocean mixing in an1 Earth system model of intermediate system model of intermediate complexity. The parameterization is based on21 previously published global. Abstract19 We introduce a parameterization of ocean mixing by tropical cyclones (TCs) into20 an Earth

  2. Climate Change Modeling and Downscaling Issues and Methodological Perspectives for the U.S. National Climate Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Janetos, Anthony C.; Collins, William D.; Wuebbles, D.J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah; Hayhoe, Katharine; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Hurtt, George

    2012-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

    This is the full workshop report for the modeling workshop we did for the National Climate Assessment, with DOE support.

  3. Modeling of Oceanic Gas Hydrate Instability and Methane Release in Response to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reagan, Matthew; Reagan, Matthew T.; Moridis, George J.

    2008-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Paleooceanographic evidence has been used to postulate that methane from oceanic hydrates may have had a significant role in regulating global climate, implicating global oceanic deposits of methane gas hydrate as the main culprit in instances of rapid climate change that have occurred in the past. However, the behavior of contemporary oceanic methane hydrate deposits subjected to rapid temperature changes, like those predicted under future climate change scenarios, is poorly understood. To determine the fate of the carbon stored in these hydrates, we performed simulations of oceanic gas hydrate accumulations subjected to temperature changes at the seafloor and assessed the potential for methane release into the ocean. Our modeling analysis considered the properties of benthic sediments, the saturation and distribution of the hydrates, the ocean depth, the initial seafloor temperature, and for the first time, estimated the effect of benthic biogeochemical activity. The results show that shallow deposits--such as those found in arctic regions or in the Gulf of Mexico--can undergo rapid dissociation and produce significant methane fluxes of 2 to 13 mol/yr/m{sup 2} over a period of decades, and release up to 1,100 mol of methane per m{sup 2} of seafloor in a century. These fluxes may exceed the ability of the seafloor environment (via anaerobic oxidation of methane) to consume the released methane or sequester the carbon. These results will provide a source term to regional or global climate models in order to assess the coupling of gas hydrate deposits to changes in the global climate.

  4. Graduate Opportunities in Earth Systems Modeling and Climate Impacts on Hydrology and Water Resources

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Graduate Opportunities in Earth Systems Modeling and Climate Impacts on Hydrology and Water research assistantships available in the general area of earth systems modeling and climate impacts

  5. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; et al

    2015-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmosphericmore »version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5°#2;C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2#2;°C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5°#2;C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO?, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R climate model produces a complete shutdown of deep water formation in the North Atlantic.« less

  6. Estimating present climate in a warming world: a model-based approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Raeisaenen, J.; Ruokolainen, L. [University of Helsinki (Finland). Division of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysics

    2008-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Weather services base their operational definitions of 'present' climate on past observations, using a 30-year normal period such as 1961-1990 or 1971-2000. In a world with ongoing global warming, however, past data give a biased estimate of the actual present-day climate. Here we propose to correct this bias with a 'delta change' method, in which model-simulated climate changes and observed global mean temperature changes are used to extrapolate past observations forward in time, to make them representative of present or future climate conditions. In a hindcast test for the years 1991-2002, the method works well for temperature, with a clear improvement in verification statistics compared to the case in which the hindcast is formed directly from the observations for 1961-1990. However, no improvement is found for precipitation, for which the signal-to-noise ratio between expected anthropogenic changes and interannual variability is much lower than for temperature. An application of the method to the present (around the year 2007) climate suggests that, as a geographical average over land areas excluding Antarctica, 8-9 months per year and 8-9 years per decade can be expected to be warmer than the median for 1971-2000. Along with the overall warming, a substantial increase in the frequency of warm extremes at the expense of cold extremes of monthly-to-annual temperature is expected.

  7. LEDS Global Partnership in Action: Advancing Climate-Resilient Low Emission Development Around the World (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Many countries around the globe are designing and implementing low emission development strategies (LEDS). These LEDS seek to achieve social, economic, and environmental development goals while reducing long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increasing resiliency to climate change impacts. The LEDS Global Partnership (LEDS GP) harnesses the collective knowledge and resources of more than 120 countries and international donor and technical organizations to strengthen climate-resilient low emission development efforts around the world.

  8. Climate system modeling on massively parallel systems: LDRD Project 95-ERP-47 final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mirin, A.A.; Dannevik, W.P.; Chan, B.; Duffy, P.B.; Eltgroth, P.G.; Wehner, M.F.

    1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Global warming, acid rain, ozone depletion, and biodiversity loss are some of the major climate-related issues presently being addressed by climate and environmental scientists. Because unexpected changes in the climate could have significant effect on our economy, it is vitally important to improve the scientific basis for understanding and predicting the earth`s climate. The impracticality of modeling the earth experimentally in the laboratory together with the fact that the model equations are highly nonlinear has created a unique and vital role for computer-based climate experiments. However, today`s computer models, when run at desired spatial and temporal resolution and physical complexity, severely overtax the capabilities of our most powerful computers. Parallel processing offers significant potential for attaining increased performance and making tractable simulations that cannot be performed today. The principal goals of this project have been to develop and demonstrate the capability to perform large-scale climate simulations on high-performance computing systems (using methodology that scales to the systems of tomorrow), and to carry out leading-edge scientific calculations using parallelized models. The demonstration platform for these studies has been the 256-processor Cray-T3D located at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Our plan was to undertake an ambitious program in optimization, proof-of-principle and scientific study. These goals have been met. We are now regularly using massively parallel processors for scientific study of the ocean and atmosphere, and preliminary parallel coupled ocean/atmosphere calculations are being carried out as well. Furthermore, our work suggests that it should be possible to develop an advanced comprehensive climate system model with performance scalable to the teraflops range. 9 refs., 3 figs.

  9. The accuracy of climate models' simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of grid scale correction factors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Winterhalter, Wade

    2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Global climate change is expected to impact biological populations through a variety of mechanisms including increases in the length of their growing season. Climate models are useful tools for predicting how season length might change in the future. However, the accuracy of these models tends to be rather low at regional geographic scales. Here, I determined the ability of several atmosphere and ocean general circulating models (AOGCMs) to accurately simulate historical season lengths for a temperate ectotherm across the continental United States. I also evaluated the effectiveness of regional-scale correction factors to improve the accuracy of these models. I found that both the accuracy of simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of the correction factors to improve the model's accuracy varied geographically and across models. These results suggest that regional specific correction factors do not always adequately remove potential discrepancies between simulated and historically observed environmental parameters. As such, an explicit evaluation of the correction factors' effectiveness should be included in future studies of global climate change's impact on biological populations.

  10. Climate Determinism Revisited: Multiple Equilibria in a Complex Climate Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ferreira, David

    Multiple equilibria in a coupled ocean–atmosphere–sea ice general circulation model (GCM) of an aquaplanet with many degrees of freedom are studied. Three different stable states are found for exactly the same set of ...

  11. Evaluating the Representation and Impact of Convective Processes in the NCAR’s Community Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiaoqing Wu

    2008-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Convection and clouds affect atmospheric temperature, moisture and wind fields through the heat of condensation and evaporation and through redistributions of heat, moisture and momentum. Individual clouds have a spatial scale of less than 10 km, much smaller than the grid size of several hundred kilometers used in climate models. Therefore the effects of clouds must be approximated in terms of variables that the model can resolve. Deriving such formulations for convection and clouds has been a major challenge for the climate modeling community due to the lack of observations of cloud and microphysical properties. The objective of our DOE CCPP project is to evaluate and improve the representation of convection schemes developed by PIs in the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and study its impact on global climate simulations.

  12. What does the 2°C Target Imply for a Global Climate Agreement in 2020? The LIMITS Study on Durban Action Platform Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Tavoni, Massimo; Aboumahboub, Tino; Luderer, Gunnar; Calvin, Katherine V.; DeMaere, Gauthier; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan; Rosler, Hilke; Schaeffer, Michiel; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper provides a novel and comprehensive model?based assessment of possible outcomes of the Durban Platform negotiations with a focus on emissions reduction requirements, the consistency with the 2°C target and global economic impacts. The Durban Action scenarios investigated in the LIMITS study—all assuming the implementation of comprehensive global emission reductions after 2020, but assuming different 2020 emission reduction levels and different long?term stabilization targets—show that the probability of exceeding the 2°C limit increases with stabilization target from below one third for 450?470 ppm to 40?60% for 490?510 ppm in 2100. Global time?averaged economic costs of the Durban Action scenarios are limited across models, and are largely unaffected by the stringency of 2020 pledges. By contrast, the economic impact of delaying action beyond 2030 is much stronger on transitional costs. The main significance of short term action in the period 2010?2030 lies in preparing the ground for steep emissions reductions thereafter by inducing global emissions to peak and decline. The institutional challenges of all scenarios with fragmented near?term climate policy can be expected to be high as reflected in a steep rise of carbon prices and decarbonization rates until 2040. We conclude that an agreement on comprehensive emissions reductions to be implemented from 2020 onwards has particular significance for meeting long term climate policy objectives.

  13. Global Distribution and Climate Forcing of Marine Organic Aerosol - Part 2: Effects on Cloud Properties and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gantt, Brett; Xu, Jun; Meskhidze, N.; Zhang, Yang; Nenes, Athanasios; Ghan, Steven J.; Liu, Xiaohong; Easter, Richard C.; Zaveri, Rahul A.

    2012-07-25T23:59:59.000Z

    A series of simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with a 7-mode Modal Aerosol Model were conducted to assess the changes in cloud microphysical properties and radiative forcing resulting from marine organic aerosols. Model simulations show that the anthropogenic aerosol indirect forcing (AIF) predicted by CAM5 is decreased in absolute magnitude by up to 0.09 Wm{sup -2} (7 %) when marine organic aerosols are included. Changes in the AIF from marine organic aerosols are associated with small global increases in low-level incloud droplet number concentration and liquid water path of 1.3 cm{sup -3} (1.5 %) and 0.22 gm{sup -2} (0.5 %), respectively. Areas especially sensitive to changes in cloud properties due to marine organic aerosol include the Southern Ocean, North Pacific Ocean, and North Atlantic Ocean, all of which are characterized by high marine organic emission rates. As climate models are particularly sensitive to the background aerosol concentration, this small but non-negligible change in the AIF due to marine organic aerosols provides a notable link for ocean-ecosystem marine low-level cloud interactions and may be a candidate for consideration in future earth system models.

  14. Climate simulations and projections with a super-parameterized climate model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Stan, Cristiana; Xu, Li

    2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The mean climate and its variability are analyzed in a suite of numerical experiments with a fully coupled general circulation model in which subgrid-scale moist convection is explicitly represented through embedded 2D cloud-system resolving models. Control simulations forced by the present day, fixed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are conducted using two horizontal resolutions and validated against observations and reanalyses. The mean state simulated by the higher resolution configuration has smaller biases. Climate variability also shows some sensitivity to resolution but not as uniform as in the case of mean state. The interannual and seasonal variability are better represented in themore »simulation at lower resolution whereas the subseasonal variability is more accurate in the higher resolution simulation. The equilibrium climate sensitivity of the model is estimated from a simulation forced by an abrupt quadrupling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The equilibrium climate sensitivity temperature of the model is 2.77 °C, and this value is slightly smaller than the mean value (3.37 °C) of contemporary models using conventional representation of cloud processes. The climate change simulation forced by the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario projects an increase in the frequency of severe droughts over most of the North America.« less

  15. Climate simulations and projections with a super-parameterized climate model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Stan, Cristiana [George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences; Xu, Li [George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (United States). Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies

    2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The mean climate and its variability are analyzed in a suite of numerical experiments with a fully coupled general circulation model in which subgrid-scale moist convection is explicitly represented through embedded 2D cloud-system resolving models. Control simulations forced by the present day, fixed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are conducted using two horizontal resolutions and validated against observations and reanalyses. The mean state simulated by the higher resolution configuration has smaller biases. Climate variability also shows some sensitivity to resolution but not as uniform as in the case of mean state. The interannual and seasonal variability are better represented in the simulation at lower resolution whereas the subseasonal variability is more accurate in the higher resolution simulation. The equilibrium climate sensitivity of the model is estimated from a simulation forced by an abrupt quadrupling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The equilibrium climate sensitivity temperature of the model is 2.77 °C, and this value is slightly smaller than the mean value (3.37 °C) of contemporary models using conventional representation of cloud processes. The climate change simulation forced by the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario projects an increase in the frequency of severe droughts over most of the North America.

  16. Evaluation of Continental Precipitation in 20th-Century Climate Simulations: The Utility of Multi-Model Statistics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phillips, T J; Gleckler, P J

    2005-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    At the request of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), simulations of 20th-century climate have been performed recently with some 20 global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. In view of its central importance for biological and socio-economic systems, model-simulated continental precipitation is evaluated relative to three observational estimates at both global and regional scales. Many models are found to display systematic biases, deviating markedly from the observed spatial variability and amplitude/phase of the seasonal cycle. However, the point-wise ensemble mean of all the models usually shows better statistical agreement with the observations than does any single model. Deficiencies of current models that may be responsible for the simulated precipitation biases as well as possible reasons for the improved estimate afforded by the multi-model ensemble mean are discussed. Implications of these results for water-resource managers also are briefly addressed.

  17. A multi-resolution method for climate system modeling: application of Spherical Centroidal A multi-resolution method for climate system modeling: Application of Spherical Centroidal Voroni Tessellations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ringler, Todd D [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Gunzburger, Max [FLORIDA STATE UNIV; Ju, Lili [UNIV OF SOUTH CAROLINA

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    During the next decade and beyond, climate system models will be challenged to resolve scales and processes that are far beyond their current scope. Each climate system component has its prototypical example of an unresolved process that may strongly influence the global climate system, ranging from eddy activity within ocean models, to ice streams within ice sheet models, to surface hydrological processes within land system models, to cloud processes within atmosphere models. These new demands will almost certainly result in the develop of multi-resolution schemes that are able, at least regional to faithfully simulate these fine-scale processes. Spherical Centroidal Voronoi Tessellations (SCVTs) offer one potential path toward the development of robust, multi-resolution climate system component models, SCVTs allow for the generation of high quality Voronoi diagrams and Delaunay triangulations through the use of an intuitive, user-defined density function, each of the examples provided, this method results in high-quality meshes where the quality measures are guaranteed to improve as the number of nodes is increased. Real-world examples are developed for the Greenland ice sheet and the North Atlantic ocean. Idealized examples are developed for ocean-ice shelf interaction and for regional atmospheric modeling. In addition to defining, developing and exhibiting SCVTs, we pair this mesh generation technique with a previously developed finite-volume method. Our numerical example is based on the nonlinear shallow-water equations spanning the entire surface of the sphere. This example is used to elucidate both the potential benefits of this multi-resolution method and the challenges ahead.

  18. Global analysis of the intranuclear cascade model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Braun, E.; Fraenkel, Z.

    1986-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    An analysis of the predictions of the intranuclear cascade model of Yariv-Fraenkel is made by means of global variables (flow angle and transverse momentum distributions). Signatures for the flow effect in the reaction are studied and the distributions of the shape of the events are determined, using the sphericity and coplanarity as shape parameters. The dependence of the results on two parameters of the model is investigated: the rearrangement of the particles in the Fermi sea after each particle-particle collision and the nuclear potential. The influence of the evaporation particles on the flow angle is checked. A comparison with the experimental results of the plastic ball/plastic wall group is made, using a simulation filter in order to take the experimental acceptance of the detector into account. The dependence of the flow angle on the mass of the colliding ions and on the bombarding energy is also studied. We find that the model predicts finite flow angles of the emitted particles. Slow rearrangement and a central potential cause larger flow angles. However, in all cases we find that the most probable calculated flow angle is smaller than the experimental one.

  19. Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office511041clothAdvanced Materials Advanced. C o w l i t zManufacturing: U.S.Climate ActionClimate, EarthOcean

  20. The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lynch, Peter [Meteorology and Climate Centre, School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Dublin, Belfield (Ireland)], E-mail: Peter.Lynch@ucd.ie

    2008-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed.

  1. Long-Term Climate Commitments Projected with ClimateCarbon Cycle Models G.-K. PLATTNER,a,n

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stocker, Thomas

    Long-Term Climate Commitments Projected with Climate­Carbon Cycle Models G.-K. PLATTNER,a,n R IAC, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland c Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada h The Open

  2. Sandia National Laboratories: Climate Security

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    MonitoringClimate Security Climate Security Climate Security Global reductions in greenhouse gases will eventually be motivated by an international climate treaty and will entail...

  3. Regional climate model data used within the SWURVE project 2: addressing uncertainty in regional climate model data Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11(1), 10851096, 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    .Ekstrom@uea.ac.uk Abstract To aid assessments of the impact of climate change on water related activities in the case study on the impacts of climate change on specific water management activities (Kilsby, 2007). Uncertainties linked, temperature, rainfall, Europe Introduction As climate model projections are often used in climate change

  4. Climate Modeling using High-Performance Computing The Center for Applied Scientific Computing (CASC) and the LLNL Climate and Carbon

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and NCAR in the development of a comprehensive, earth systems model. This model incorporates the most-performance climate models. Through the addition of relevant physical processes, we are developing an earth systems modeling capability as well. Our collaborators in climate research include the National Center

  5. Aerosol, Cloud, and Climate: From Observation to Model (457th Brookhaven Lecture)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Jian (Ph.D., Environmental Sciences Department) [Ph.D., Environmental Sciences Department

    2010-05-12T23:59:59.000Z

    In the last 100 years, the Earth has warmed by about 1ºF, glaciers and sea ice have been melting more quickly than previously, especially during the past decade, and the level of the sea has risen about 6-8 inches worldwide. Scientists have long been investigating this phenomenon of “global warming,” which is believed to be at least partly due to the increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the air from burning fossil fuels. Funded by DOE, teams of researchers from BNL and other national labs have been gathering data in the U.S. and internationally to build computer models of climate and weather to help in understanding general patterns, causes, and perhaps, solutions. Among many findings, researchers observed that atmospheric aerosols, minute particles in the atmosphere, can significantly affect global energy balance and climate. Directly, aerosols scatter and absorb sunlight. Indirectly, increased aerosol concentration can lead to smaller cloud droplets, changing clouds in ways that tend to cool global climate and potentially mask overall warming from man-made CO2.

  6. Regional climate models, spatial data and extremes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nychka, Douglas

    density function. f(y) = eg(y) or g(y) = log(f(y)) we are interested in the (simple) behavior of g when p from five clim forcings due to solar activity and volcanoes. Red shaded bands show the 5­95% range greenhouse gases ­ without Summary figure from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessement

  7. Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Kyle, G. Page; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Havlik, Petr; van Meijl, Hans; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Popp, Alexander; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk; Wise, Marshall A.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, e.g. from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an RCP2.6-type scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in an RCP8.5-type scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.

  8. Scientist warns against overselling climate change Climate change forecasters should admit that they cannot predict how global warming will affect

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stevenson, Paul

    that they cannot predict how global warming will affect individual countries, a leading physicist has said-of-deaths-from-ozone-predicted.html) Antarctic sea floor gives clues about effects of future global warming (/earth/environment/climatechange /5279223/Antarctic-sea-floor-gives-clues-about-affects-of-future-global-warming.html) The Vanishing Face

  9. 3D climate modeling of Earth-like extrasolar planets orbiting different types of host stars

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Godolt, M; Hamann-Reinus, A; Kitzmann, D; Kunze, M; Langematz, U; von Paris, P; Patzer, A B C; Rauer, H; Stracke, B

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The potential habitability of a terrestrial planet is usually defined by the possible existence of liquid water on its surface. The potential presence of liquid water depends on many factors such as, most importantly, surface temperatures. The properties of the planetary atmosphere and its interaction with the radiative energy provided by the planet's host star are thereby of decisive importance. In this study we investigate the influence of different main-sequence stars upon the climate of Earth-like extrasolar planets and their potential habitability by applying a 3D Earth climate model accounting for local and dynamical processes. The calculations have been performed for planets with Earth-like atmospheres at orbital distances where the total amount of energy received from the various host stars equals the solar constant. In contrast to previous 3D modeling studies, we include the effect of ozone radiative heating upon the vertical temperature structure of the atmospheres. The global orbital mean results o...

  10. Arctic ozone loss and climate sensitivity: Updated threedimensional model study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feng, Wuhu

    Arctic ozone loss and climate sensitivity: Updated three­dimensional model study Chipperfield winter­spring chemical ozone loss from 1991 2003, its observed correlation with low temperatures. CTM throughout studied. The model reproduces large column winters also captures shape of ozone loss profile

  11. A Climate Modelling Primer Building an EBM with Excel

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCready, Mark J.

    A Climate Modelling Primer Building an EBM with Excel 1. Introduction This document tells you how this guide to get the EBM coded up in whatever programming language you have available. To get a fuller understanding of where the equations come from, you'll need a copy of the book handy. 2. The model domain

  12. Long-Term Regional Climate Simulations Driven by Two Global Reanalyses and a GCM for the Western United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai R.; Bian, Xindi; Qian, Yun

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    To take advantage of recent development in the NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5), an effort has been organized to develop and evaluate an MM5-based community regional climate model. Several modifications such as the implementation of the PNNL subgrid parameterization of orographic precipitation, representation of cloud-radiation interaction, and additional output capabilities have been made to the recently released MM5 Version 3.4. To evaluate the model, several long-term simulations have been performed over the western U.S. These simulations were driven by the NCEP/NCAR and ECMWF reanalyses respectively for 20 and 13 years beginning at 1980. The western U.S. is marked by diverse topographic features and varied climate conditions such as the maritime climate in the coastal area and the semi-arid climate in the southwest. We will present results based on two domain configurations: a nested domain with a fine domain covering the western U.S. at 40 km resolution, and a single domain at 60 km resolution with the subgrid orographic precipitation scheme applied in the western U.S. Analyses are being performed to evaluate the simulations of the averaged climate and interannual variability and examine the model sensitivity to different boundary conditions. Our analyses focus on the relationships between large-scale circulation and regional climate features, surface energy and water budgets, orographic precipitation, and hydrologic conditions within selected river basins. Regional simulations are also being performed using large-scale conditions simulated by the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model (PCM). The regional model was used to downscale the ensemble PCM climate change scenarios for periods of 10-20 years in the current and future climate. Results will be analyzed to study the impacts of greenhouse warming on regional water resources in the western U.S.

  13. Development and evaluation of a convection scheme for use in climate models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Emanuel, K.A. [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA (United States). Program for Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate] [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA (United States). Program for Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate; Zivkovic-Rothman, M. [Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States)] [Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1999-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Cumulus convection is a key process in controlling the water vapor content of the atmosphere, which is in turn the largest feedback mechanism for climate change in global climate models. Yet scant attention has been paid to designing convective representations that attempt to handle water vapor with fidelity, and even less to evaluating their performance. Here the authors attempt to address this deficiency by designing a representation of cumulus convection with close attention paid to convective water fluxes and by subjecting the scheme to rigorous tests using sounding array data. The authors maintain that such tests, in which a single-column model is forced by large-scale processes measured by or inferred from the sounding data, must be carried out over a period at least as long as the radiative-subsidence timescale--about 30 days--governing the water vapor adjustment time. The authors also argue that the observed forcing must be preconditioned to guarantee integral enthalpy conservation, else errors in the single-column prediction may be falsely attributed to convective schemes. Optimization of the new scheme`s parameters is performed using one month of data from the intensive flux array operating during the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment, with the aid of the adjoint of the linear tangent of the single-column model. Residual root-mean-square errors, after optimization, are about 15% in relative humidity and .8 K in temperature. It is difficult to reject the hypothesis that the residual errors are due to noise in the forcing. Evaluation of the convective scheme is performed using Global Atmospheric Research Program Atlantic Tropical Experiment data. The performance of the scheme is compared to that of a few other schemes used in current climate models. It is also shown that a vertical resolution better than 50 mb in pressure is necessary for accurate prediction of atmospheric water vapor.

  14. Final Report for High Latitude Climate Modeling: ARM Takes Us Beyond Case Studies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Russell, Lynn M [Scripps/UCSD; Lubin, Dan [Scripps/UCSD

    2013-06-18T23:59:59.000Z

    The main thrust of this project was to devise a method by which the majority of North Slope of Alaska (NSA) meteorological and radiometric data, collected on a daily basis, could be used to evaluate and improve global climate model (GCM) simulations and their parameterizations, particularly for cloud microphysics. Although the standard ARM Program sensors for a less complete suite of instruments for cloud and aerosol studies than the instruments on an intensive field program such as the 2008 Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), the advantage they offer lies in the long time base and large volume of data that covers a wide range of meteorological and climatological conditions. The challenge has been devising a method to interpret the NSA data in a practical way, so that a wide variety of meteorological conditions in all seasons can be examined with climate models. If successful, climate modelers would have a robust alternative to the usual “case study” approach (i.e., from intensive field programs only) for testing and evaluating their parameterizations’ performance. Understanding climate change on regional scales requires a broad scientific consideration of anthropogenic influences that goes beyond greenhouse gas emissions to also include aerosol-induced changes in cloud properties. For instance, it is now clear that on small scales, human-induced aerosol plumes can exert microclimatic radiative and hydrologic forcing that rivals that of greenhouse gas–forced warming. This project has made significant scientific progress by investigating what causes successive versions of climate models continue to exhibit errors in cloud amount, cloud microphysical and radiative properties, precipitation, and radiation balance, as compared with observations and, in particular, in Arctic regions. To find out what is going wrong, we have tested the models' cloud representation over the full range of meteorological conditions found in the Arctic using the ARM North Slope of Alaska (NSA) data.

  15. Comments on: Climate Measurement & Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625govInstrumentstdmadapInactiveVisiting the TWPSuccessAlamosCharacterization2Climate,CobaltColdin679April

  16. Sandia Energy - Climate Measurement & Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOnItemResearch > TheNuclear Press ReleasesInApplied &Climate Measurement &

  17. Integrated decision support model for global sourcing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mroczkowski, Victor A. (Victor Adam)

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Over the last decade, the U.S. aircraft industry has experienced increasing levels of international integration as companies seek to access global talent and resources, cut production costs, spread financial risk, and ...

  18. Global manufacturing model and case studies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kijtawesataporn, Komsun

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    . Second, an operational layer discusses, the general idea of what policy a company needs to develop and how a company globally manages its operations and supply chain, resources, and markets. The third layer, societal, shows the importance and the impacts...

  19. Aerosols and clouds in chemical transport models and climate models.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lohmann,U.; Schwartz, S. E.

    2008-03-02T23:59:59.000Z

    Clouds exert major influences on both shortwave and longwave radiation as well as on the hydrological cycle. Accurate representation of clouds in climate models is a major unsolved problem because of high sensitivity of radiation and hydrology to cloud properties and processes, incomplete understanding of these processes, and the wide range of length scales over which these processes occur. Small changes in the amount, altitude, physical thickness, and/or microphysical properties of clouds due to human influences can exert changes in Earth's radiation budget that are comparable to the radiative forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, thus either partly offsetting or enhancing the warming due to these gases. Because clouds form on aerosol particles, changes in the amount and/or composition of aerosols affect clouds in a variety of ways. The forcing of the radiation balance due to aerosol-cloud interactions (indirect aerosol effect) has large uncertainties because a variety of important processes are not well understood precluding their accurate representation in models.

  20. Modelling of mineral dust for interglacial and glacial climate conditions with a focus on Antarctica

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sudarchikova, Natalia; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Timmreck, C.; O'Donnell, D.; Schurgers, G.; Sein, Dmitry; Zhang, Kai

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Mineral dust cycle responds to insolation-induced climate change and plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Polar ice cores provide unique information about deposition of aeolian dust particles in the past which indicates climate variability. In the current study the dust cycle in different climate conditions simulated by ECHAM5-HAM is analyzed. The study is focused on the Southern Hemisphere with emphasis on the Antarctic region. The investigated periods include four interglacial time-slices: the pre-industrial control (CTRL), mid-Holocene (6,000 years BP), Eemian (126,000 years BP), last glacial inception (115,000 years BP) and one glacial time interval: Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21,000 years BP). This study is a first attempt to simulate past interglacial dust cycles and to understand the quantitative contribution of different processes, such as emission, atmospheric transport and precipitation to the total dust deposition in Antarctica. Results suggest increased deposition of mineral dust globally and in Antarctica in the past interglacial periods relative to the preindustrial CTRL simulation. Maximum dust deposition in Antarctica was simulated for the glacial period. One of the major factors responsible for the increase of dust deposition in the mid-Holocene and Eemian is enhanced Southern Hemisphere dust emissions. The moderate change of dust deposition in Antarctica in the last glacial inception period is caused by the slightly stronger poleward atmospheric transport efficiency compared to the pre-industrial. In the LGM simulation, dust deposition over Antarctica is substantially increased due to 2.6 times higher Southern Hemisphere dust emissions, 2 times stronger atmospheric transport towards Antarctica, and 30% weaker precipitation over the Southern Ocean. The model is able to reproduce the order of magnitude of dust deposition globally and in Antarctica for the pre-industrial and LGM climate. However more records are needed to validate simulated dust deposition for the past interglacial time-slices.

  1. Local action for the global environment : municipal government participation in a voluntary climate protection program

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ravin, Amelia L., 1977-

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Cities for Climate ProtectionTM (CCP) campaign is a voluntary environmental program for municipalities, which is increasingly being applied around the world by local governments taking action on climate change. This ...

  2. A Hierarchical Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ringler, Todd; Collins, William D.; Taylor, Mark; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2013-08-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tools for predicting the evolution of the climate system. Through decades of development, GCMs have demonstrated useful skill in simulating climate at continental to global scales. However, large uncertainties remain in projecting climate change at regional scales, which limit our ability to inform decisions on climate change adaptation and mitigation. To bridge this gap, different modeling approaches including nested regional climate models (RCMs), global stretch-grid models, and global high-resolution atmospheric models have been used to provide regional climate simulations (Leung et al. 2003). In previous efforts to evaluate these approaches, isolating their relative merits was not possible because factors such as dynamical frameworks, physics parameterizations, and model resolutions were not systematically constrained. With advances in high performance computing, it is now feasible to run coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs at horizontal resolution comparable to what RCMs use today. Global models with local refinement using unstructured grids have become available for modeling regional climate (e.g., Rauscher et al. 2012; Ringler et al. 2013). While they offer opportunities to improve climate simulations, significant efforts are needed to test their veracity for regional-scale climate simulations.

  3. European-Led Climate Policy versus Global Mitigation Action: Implications on

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ) Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) Isola di San Giorgio Maggiore, 30124 Venezia, Italy, Amit Kanudia, Sergey Paltsev, Ronald D. Sands and Katja Schumacher *Reprinted from Climate Change and predictions of the risks of climate change and the challenges of limiting human influence on the environment

  4. Interactions between wetlands CH4 emissions and climate at global scale

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Canet, Léonie

    emissions? Observations Introduction Tool Wetlands emissions [CH4 ]atmo Feedback Conclusion #12;[CO2 ]atmo e.g.: Climate (T) CO2 anthropogenic emissions wetlands CH4 emissions Under future climate change, Shindell et al. (2004) => +78% under climate change generated by 2xCO2 Introduction Tool Wetlands emissions [CH4

  5. A multi-resolution method for climate system modeling: application of spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ringler, Todd [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ju, Lili [University of South Carolina; Gunzburger, Max [Florida State University

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    During the next decade and beyond, climate system models will be challenged to resolve scales and processes that are far beyond their current scope. Each climate system component has its prototypical example of an unresolved process that may strongly influence the global climate system, ranging from eddy activity within ocean models, to ice streams within ice sheet models, to surface hydrological processes within land system models, to cloud processes within atmosphere models. These new demands will almost certainly result in the develop of multiresolution schemes that are able, at least regionally, to faithfully simulate these fine-scale processes. Spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellations (SCVTs) offer one potential path toward the development of a robust, multiresolution climate system model components. SCVTs allow for the generation of high quality Voronoi diagrams and Delaunay triangulations through the use of an intuitive, user-defined density function. In each of the examples provided, this method results in high-quality meshes where the quality measures are guaranteed to improve as the number of nodes is increased. Real-world examples are developed for the Greenland ice sheet and the North Atlantic ocean. Idealized examples are developed for ocean–ice shelf interaction and for regional atmospheric modeling. In addition to defining, developing, and exhibiting SCVTs, we pair this mesh generation technique with a previously developed finite-volume method. Our numerical example is based on the nonlinear, shallow water equations spanning the entire surface of the sphere. This example is used to elucidate both the potential benefits of this multiresolution method and the challenges ahead.

  6. Review: The Global Warming Reader: A Century of Writing About Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Anderson, Byron P.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Review: The Global Warming Reader: A Century of WritingMcKibben, Bill, ed. The Global Warming Reader: A Century ofrecord of no action on global warming. Those who have done

  7. Global warming from chlorofluorocarbons and their alternatives: Time scales of chemistry and climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ko, Malcolm K.W.; Sze, Nien Dak; Molnar, Gyula; Prather, Michael J

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and their replacements on global warming. Nature Hansen J. ,gas emissions to global warming. Nature London Amendment toNature 315, 649-652, Global warming time scales WMO (World

  8. Large Scale Simulation of Tor: Modelling a Global Passive Adversary

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Blott, Stephen

    . Implementing global passive adversary attacks on currently deployed low latency anonymous networks designs have been developed which attempt to apply mixes to low latency traffic. The most widelyLarge Scale Simulation of Tor: Modelling a Global Passive Adversary Gavin O' Gorman and Stephen

  9. An Interactive Multi-Model for Consensus on Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kocarev, Ljupco [University of California, San Diego] [University of California, San Diego

    2014-07-02T23:59:59.000Z

    This project purports to develop a new scheme for forming consensus among alternative climate models, that give widely divergent projections as to the details of climate change, that is more intelligent than simply averaging the model outputs, or averaging with ex post facto weighting factors. The method under development effectively allows models to assimilate data from one another in run time with weights that are chosen in an adaptive training phase using 20th century data, so that the models synchronize with one another as well as with reality. An alternate approach that is being explored in parallel is the automated combination of equations from different models in an expert-system-like framework.

  10. EdGCM Workshop Guide | i Global Climate Modeling Workshop

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Klein, David

    developed at the National Laboratories run by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA

  11. Zooming in: From global to regional climate models | Argonne Leadership

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOnItemResearch >Internship ProgramBiomass and Biofuels Biomass and| Blandine

  12. Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of ScienceandMesa del SolStrengthening a solid ...Success Stories Touching TheCapture Turbulence in

  13. Remarks in the National Assembly of France The European Climate Foundation kindly helped arrange a discussion about global climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hansen, James E.

    Remarks in the National Assembly of France The European Climate Foundation kindly helped arrange not go after every drop of oil/gas on the planet. Reality. Governments worldwide are ignoring on their internal consumption of fossil fuels. Why would China agree: to avoid fossil fuel addiction, clean up its

  14. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Modeling fuel consumption

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    rate and pattern. Fuel consumption is the basic process that leads to heat absorbing emissions called evaluated with an independent, quality assured, fuel consumption data set. Furthermore, anecdotal evidenceWildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Modeling fuel consumption Roger D. Ottmar U

  15. Baseline for Climate Change: Modeling Watershed Aquatic Biodiversity Relative to Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maurakis, Eugene G

    2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Objectives of the two-year study were to (1) establish baselines for fish and macroinvertebrate community structures in two mid-Atlantic lower Piedmont watersheds (Quantico Creek, a pristine forest watershed; and Cameron Run, an urban watershed, Virginia) that can be used to monitor changes relative to the impacts related to climate change in the future; (2) create mathematical expressions to model fish species richness and diversity, and macroinvertebrate taxa and macroinvertebrate functional feeding group taxa richness and diversity that can serve as a baseline for future comparisons in these and other watersheds in the mid-Atlantic region; and (3) heighten people’s awareness, knowledge and understanding of climate change and impacts on watersheds in a laboratory experience and interactive exhibits, through internship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, a week-long teacher workshop, and a website about climate change and watersheds. Mathematical expressions modeled fish and macroinvertebrate richness and diversity accurately well during most of the six thermal seasons where sample sizes were robust. Additionally, hydrologic models provide the basis for estimating flows under varying meteorological conditions and landscape changes. Continuations of long-term studies are requisite for accurately teasing local human influences (e.g. urbanization and watershed alteration) from global anthropogenic impacts (e.g. climate change) on watersheds. Effective and skillful translations (e.g. annual potential exposure of 750,000 people to our inquiry-based laboratory activities and interactive exhibits in Virginia) of results of scientific investigations are valuable ways of communicating information to the general public to enhance their understanding of climate change and its effects in watersheds.

  16. RHP: HOW CLIMATE MODELS GAIN AND EXERCISE How Climate Models Gain and Exercise Authority

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hulme, Mike

    -dimensional models, intermediate complexity models, general circulation models, and Earth system models. 2 www

  17. MODELING THE GLOBAL PEAKS AND COOLING SY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    . In this study, the morphological analysis depicted to clarify different district areas from G.I.S. data heat island and global warming effects building simulation is outlined. INTRODUCTION Urban structures city scale and local scale. The main influence microclimate is the heat island caused by trapping

  18. GLOBAL COMPREHENSIVE MODELS IN POLITICS AND POLICYMAKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Edwards, Paul N.

    . In this editorial, I reflect on the role of comprehensive models, such as IAMs and earth system models (ESMs

  19. Improving the Simulation of the West African Monsoon Using the MIT Regional Climate Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Im, Eun-Soon

    This paper presents an evaluation of the performance of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) regional climate model (MRCM) in simulating the West African monsoon. The MRCM is built on the Regional Climate Model, ...

  20. Climate change uncertainty evaluation, impacts modelling and resilience of farm scale dynamics in Scotland 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rivington, Michael

    2011-06-28T23:59:59.000Z

    evidence of how primary production components of agriculture in Scotland may change under a future climate. The work used a generic Integrated Modelling Framework to structure the following sequence of investigations: Evaluate a Regional Climate Model...

  1. Climate Projections Using Bayesian Model Averaging and Space-Time Dependence

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haran, Murali

    Climate Projections Using Bayesian Model Averaging and Space-Time Dependence K. Sham Bhat, Murali Haran, Adam Terando, and Klaus Keller. Abstract Projections of future climatic changes are a key input to the design of climate change mitiga- tion and adaptation strategies. Current climate change projections

  2. Tales from the climate-change crossroads Four books by prominent global-warming pundits illustrate that exhortation and authority are not

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Colorado at Boulder, University of

    Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and for questionable behaviour revealed in e-mail disclosures the climate crisis". He provides a colourful overview of low-carbon technologies -- wind, solar, nuclear behavior and thinking". Again, he does not say how a new global consciousness is to be delivered. Instead

  3. The impact of tropical cyclones (TC) on global climate is still debated. They rapidly mix the water column beneath them, bringing cold water to the surface.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jones, Peter JS

    of Climate, 21, 638 Sriver & Huber, 2007, Observational evidence for an ocean heat pump induced by tropicalThe impact of tropical cyclones (TC) on global climate is still debated. They rapidly mix the water column beneath them, bringing cold water to the surface. One way to parameterise this process

  4. A Gaussian graphical model approach to climate networks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zerenner, Tanja, E-mail: tanjaz@uni-bonn.de [Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Auf dem Hügel 20, 53121 Bonn (Germany)] [Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Auf dem Hügel 20, 53121 Bonn (Germany); Friederichs, Petra; Hense, Andreas [Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Auf dem Hügel 20, 53121 Bonn (Germany) [Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Auf dem Hügel 20, 53121 Bonn (Germany); Interdisciplinary Center for Complex Systems, University of Bonn, Brühler Straße 7, 53119 Bonn (Germany); Lehnertz, Klaus [Department of Epileptology, University of Bonn, Sigmund-Freud-Straße 25, 53105 Bonn (Germany) [Department of Epileptology, University of Bonn, Sigmund-Freud-Straße 25, 53105 Bonn (Germany); Helmholtz Institute for Radiation and Nuclear Physics, University of Bonn, Nussallee 14-16, 53115 Bonn (Germany); Interdisciplinary Center for Complex Systems, University of Bonn, Brühler Straße 7, 53119 Bonn (Germany)

    2014-06-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Distinguishing between direct and indirect connections is essential when interpreting network structures in terms of dynamical interactions and stability. When constructing networks from climate data the nodes are usually defined on a spatial grid. The edges are usually derived from a bivariate dependency measure, such as Pearson correlation coefficients or mutual information. Thus, the edges indistinguishably represent direct and indirect dependencies. Interpreting climate data fields as realizations of Gaussian Random Fields (GRFs), we have constructed networks according to the Gaussian Graphical Model (GGM) approach. In contrast to the widely used method, the edges of GGM networks are based on partial correlations denoting direct dependencies. Furthermore, GRFs can be represented not only on points in space, but also by expansion coefficients of orthogonal basis functions, such as spherical harmonics. This leads to a modified definition of network nodes and edges in spectral space, which is motivated from an atmospheric dynamics perspective. We construct and analyze networks from climate data in grid point space as well as in spectral space, and derive the edges from both Pearson and partial correlations. Network characteristics, such as mean degree, average shortest path length, and clustering coefficient, reveal that the networks posses an ordered and strongly locally interconnected structure rather than small-world properties. Despite this, the network structures differ strongly depending on the construction method. Straightforward approaches to infer networks from climate data while not regarding any physical processes may contain too strong simplifications to describe the dynamics of the climate system appropriately.

  5. The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

  6. True to Milankovitch: Glacial Inception in the new Community Climate System Model.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jochum, Markus

    True to Milankovitch: Glacial Inception in the new Community Climate System Model. 1 2 3 4 Markus42 ability of climate models to anticipate the evolution of climate in the future.43 2 #12 Circulation Models (GCMs) have57 failed to reproduce glacial inception, the cooling and increase in snow

  7. Global Electricity Technology Substitution Model with Induced Technological Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Watson, Andrew

    of E3MG. As opposed to traditional energy models based on cost optimisation procedures, it focuses, and it is difficult to model the energy sector without including its interactions with global economic activity. E3MGGlobal Electricity Technology Substitution Model with Induced Technological Change Jean

  8. Conceptual stochastic climate models Peter Imkeller

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monahan, Adam Hugh

    to be thoroughly inve- stigated but too simple to be treated as quantitatively accurate, through Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) which represent some clima- te subsystems (e.g. the ocean

  9. Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schmitz, Christoph; van Meijl, Hans; Kyle, G. Page; Nelson, Gerald C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gurgel, Angelo; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; von Lampe, Martin; Wise, Marshall A.; Blanc, Elodie; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Valin, Hugo

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10–25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.

  10. Global Transportation Roadmap Model | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are beingZealand Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAddInformationEnergyEnergy JumpGlobal

  11. MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) Version 2: Model Description and Baseline Evaluation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sokolov, Andrei P.

    The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) is designed for analyzing the global environmental changes that may result from anthropogenic causes, quantifying the uncertainties associated with the projected changes, and ...

  12. THE APPLICATION OF A STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING PROCESS TO DERIVE 21{sup ST} CENTURY RIVER FLOW PREDICTIONS USING A GLOBAL CLIMATE SIMULATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Werth, D.; Chen, K. F.

    2013-08-22T23:59:59.000Z

    The ability of water managers to maintain adequate supplies in coming decades depends, in part, on future weather conditions, as climate change has the potential to alter river flows from their current values, possibly rendering them unable to meet demand. Reliable climate projections are therefore critical to predicting the future water supply for the United States. These projections cannot be provided solely by global climate models (GCMs), however, as their resolution is too coarse to resolve the small-scale climate changes that can affect hydrology, and hence water supply, at regional to local scales. A process is needed to ‘downscale’ the GCM results to the smaller scales and feed this into a surface hydrology model to help determine the ability of rivers to provide adequate flow to meet future needs. We apply a statistical downscaling to GCM projections of precipitation and temperature through the use of a scaling method. This technique involves the correction of the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of the GCM-derived temperature and precipitation results for the 20{sup th} century, and the application of the same correction to 21{sup st} century GCM projections. This is done for three meteorological stations located within the Coosa River basin in northern Georgia, and is used to calculate future river flow statistics for the upper Coosa River. Results are compared to the historical Coosa River flow upstream from Georgia Power Company’s Hammond coal-fired power plant and to flows calculated with the original, unscaled GCM results to determine the impact of potential changes in meteorology on future flows.

  13. Sources for Global Climate Change Information (updated: March 17, 2011) The following information is provided for those who wish to learn more about this issue. These

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Howat, Ian M.

    of the role of greenhouse gases in maintaining Earth's energy balance, and the role of additional of Global Climate Change on the United States (NRC, 2008) http://www.ostp.gov/galleriesINSTC Reports/Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States.pdf (copy this into browser) http

  14. Project EARTH-13-SHELLSPH1: Global expression of climatic and palaeoceanographic events in black shales: generation of new high-resolution

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Henderson, Gideon

    geochronology, the expression of the global Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T- OAE) ­ a major black shale event of other black shale events known from NW Europe, such as those at the Sinemurian- Pliensbachian boundaryProject EARTH-13-SHELLSPH1: Global expression of climatic and palaeoceanographic events in black

  15. Development of Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerant Solutions for Commercial Refrigeration Systems using a Life Cycle Climate Performance Design Tool

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abdelaziz, Omar [ORNL] [ORNL; Fricke, Brian A [ORNL] [ORNL; Vineyard, Edward Allan [ORNL] [ORNL

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Commercial refrigeration systems are known to be prone to high leak rates and to consume large amounts of electricity. As such, direct emissions related to refrigerant leakage and indirect emissions resulting from primary energy consumption contribute greatly to their Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP). In this paper, an LCCP design tool is used to evaluate the performance of a typical commercial refrigeration system with alternative refrigerants and minor system modifications to provide lower Global Warming Potential (GWP) refrigerant solutions with improved LCCP compared to baseline systems. The LCCP design tool accounts for system performance, ambient temperature, and system load; system performance is evaluated using a validated vapor compression system simulation tool while ambient temperature and system load are devised from a widely used building energy modeling tool (EnergyPlus). The LCCP design tool also accounts for the change in hourly electricity emission rate to yield an accurate prediction of indirect emissions. The analysis shows that conventional commercial refrigeration system life cycle emissions are largely due to direct emissions associated with refrigerant leaks and that system efficiency plays a smaller role in the LCCP. However, as a transition occurs to low GWP refrigerants, the indirect emissions become more relevant. Low GWP refrigerants may not be suitable for drop-in replacements in conventional commercial refrigeration systems; however some mixtures may be introduced as transitional drop-in replacements. These transitional refrigerants have a significantly lower GWP than baseline refrigerants and as such, improved LCCP. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the tradeoffs between refrigerant GWP, efficiency and capacity.

  16. Global quantum discord and quantum phase transition in XY model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Si-Yuan Liu; Yu-Ran Zhang; Wen-Li Yang; Heng Fan

    2014-05-20T23:59:59.000Z

    We study the relationship between the behavior of global quantum correlations and quantum phase transitions in XY model. We find that the two kinds of phase transitions in the studied model can be characterized by the features of global quantum discord (GQD) and the corresponding quantum correlations. We demonstrate that the maximum of the sum of all the nearest neighbor bipartite GQDs is effective and accurate for signaling the Ising quantum phase transition, in contrast, the sudden change of GQD is very suitable for characterizing another phase transition in the XY model. This may shed lights on the study of properties of quantum correlations in different quantum phases.

  17. Global Biofuels Modeling and Land Use

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Biofuels Modeling and Land Use DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Strategic Analysis & Cross-cutting Sustainability March 25 2015 Gbadebo Oladosu...

  18. Development of Frameworks for Robust Regional Climate Modeling PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Moetasim Ashfaq

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    goals of climate modeling. Water supports the ecosystems as well as a wide range of human activities to improve region- al predictions of the hydrologic cycle to address climate change impacts, adaptationDevelopment of Frameworks for Robust Regional Climate Modeling PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Moetasim

  19. CliCrop: a Crop Water-Stress and Irrigation Demand Model for an Integrated Global Assessment Model Approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fant, C.A.

    This paper describes the use of the CliCrop model in the context of climate change general assessment

  20. Carbon-nitrogen interactions regulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks: results from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2009 P. E. Thornton et al. : Carbon-nitrogen interactionsregulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks Monfray, P. ,T. H. : A global ocean carbon climatology: Results from

  1. A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

  2. A modeling study on the climate impacts of black carbon aerosols

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Chien.

    The role of black carbon (BC) aerosols in climate change is important because of its strong capability in causing extinction of solar radiation. A three-dimensional interactive aerosol-climate model has been used to study ...

  3. Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land use change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heald, C. L.; Henze, D. K.; Horowitz, L. W.; Feddema, Johannes J.; Lamarque, J. F.; Guenther, A.; Hess, P. G.; Vitt, F.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Goldstein, A. H.; Fung, I.

    2008-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of chemical and physical environ- ments represented by these studies suggests that the mech- anisms and precursors contributing to SOA formation are diverse. In light of these discrepancies, previous estimates of the global source of SOA (12–40 Tg C a#2... and results are averaged to estimate the effect of interannual climate variability. 2.2. Anthropogenic Emissions [17] Emissions of both gas and aerosol phase species for the years 2000 and 2100 are taken from Horowitz [2006]. Present-day (2000) fossil fuel...

  4. The climate impacts of high-speed rail and air transportation : a global comparative analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Clewlow, Regina Ruby Lee

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Growing concerns about the energy use and climate impacts of the transportation sector have prompted policymakers to consider a variety of options to meet the future mobility needs of the world's population, while ...

  5. Crop water stress under climate change uncertainty : global policy and regional risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gueneau, Arthur

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Fourty percent of all crops grown in the world today are grown using irrigation, and shifting precipitation patterns due to climate change are viewed as a major threat to food security. This thesis examines, in the framework ...

  6. The economic impact of global climate and tropospheric oxone on world agricultural production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Xiaodu

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The objective of my thesis is to analyze the economic impact on agriculture production from changes in climate and tropospheric ozone, and related policy interventions. The analysis makes use of the Emissions Prediction ...

  7. Chemistryclimate model simulations of twenty-first century stratospheric climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wirosoetisno, Djoko

    recovery causes a warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar lower stratosphere in summer with enhanced to an overall global cooling of the stratosphere in the simulations (0.59 6 0.07 K decade21 at 10 hPa), ozone cooling above. The rate of warming correlates with the rate of ozone recovery projected by the models and

  8. Light-absorbing Particles in Snow and Ice: Measurement and Modeling of Climatic and Hydrological Impact

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qian, Yun; Yasunari, Teppei J.; Doherty, Sarah J.; Flanner, M. G.; Lau, William K.; Ming, J.; Wang, Hailong; Wang, Mo; Warren, Stephen G.; Zhang, Rudong

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Light absorbing particles (LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust) influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance (a.k.a., surface darkening), which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice (LAPSI) has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g. in the fourth and fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, andclimatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.

  9. Modeling Climate and Production-related Impacts on Ice-core Beryllium-10

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Modeling Climate and Production-related Impacts on Ice-core Beryllium-10 Christy Veeder Submitted Modeling Climate and Production-related Impacts on Ice-core Beryllium-10 Christy Veeder I use the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE general circulation model to ex- amine the how beryllium-10, a cosmogenic

  10. The effects of small perturbations in climate models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bell, Robert Eugene

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    An energy balance model . II. 2 Equilibrium statistics 5 12 III A GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL . . III. 1 Terra Blimda . III. 2 Equilibrium statistics 15 18 IV THE EFFECTS OF SMALL PERTURBATIONS . . 21 IV. 1 Response to a, Dirac delta, function IV. 2... standard deviations from the mean. , Relaxation time for different modes as a function of Legendre index n (North and Cahalan, 1981). 13 Illustration of a, rhomboidal truncation at degree 5 (R5). 17 The global mean surface temperature of Terra Blanda...

  11. A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and communications, in Ocean Engineering Planning and Designmicropro?ler, Engineering in the Ocean Environment, Ocean ’engineering diagnostic data will be transmitted. 5. GLOBAL OCEAN

  12. A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    transports from ocean to land and global energy ?ows inof Earth energy imbal- ance, ocean warming, and thermostericthe ther- mal energy of the ocean, it remains a challenging

  13. Loss of Cherished Places -- Global Climate Change in Maryland: Loss at the Margins of Place

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Myers, David

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Predicting species extinction in response to global warminghave led to species extinction. Above: The Appalachian Trailspecies may have less chance to migrate, and may face extinction.

  14. Climate mitigation’s impact on global and regional electric power sector water use in the 21st Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dooley, James J.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan

    2013-08-05T23:59:59.000Z

    Over the course of this coming century, global electricity use is expected to grow at least five fold and if stringent greenhouse gas emissions controls are in place the growth could be more than seven fold from current levels. Given that the electric power sector represents the second largest anthropogenic use of water and given growing concerns about the nature and extent of future water scarcity driven by population growth and a changing climate, significant concern has been expressed about the electricity sector’s use of water going forward. In this paper, the authors demonstrate that an often overlooked but absolutely critical issue that needs to be taken into account in discussions about the sustainability of the electric sector’s water use going forward is the tremendous turn over in electricity capital stock that will occur over the course of this century; i.e., in the scenarios examined here more than 80% of global electricity production in the year 2050 is from facilities that have not yet been built. The authors show that because of the large scale changes in the global electricity system, the water withdrawal intensity of electricity production is likely to drop precipitously with the result being relatively constant water withdrawals over the course of the century even in the face of the large growth in electricity usage. The ability to cost effectively reduce the water intensity of power plants with carbon dioxide capture and storage systems in particular is key to constraining overall global water use.

  15. World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3): Multi-Model Dataset Archive at PCMDI (Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    In response to a proposed activity of the WCRP's Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM),PCMDI volunteered to collect model output contributed by leading modeling centers around the world. Climate model output from simulations of the past, present and future climate was collected by PCMDI mostly during the years 2005 and 2006, and this archived data constitutes phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). In part, the WGCM organized this activity to enable those outside the major modeling centers to perform research of relevance to climate scientists preparing the Fourth Asssessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC was established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Program to assess scientific information on climate change. The IPCC publishes reports that summarize the state of the science. This unprecedented collection of recent model output is officially known as the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. It is meant to serve IPCC's Working Group 1, which focuses on the physical climate system - atmosphere, land surface, ocean and sea ice - and the choice of variables archived at the PCMDI reflects this focus. A more comprehensive set of output for a given model may be available from the modeling center that produced it. As of November 2007, over 35 terabytes of data were in the archive and over 303 terabytes of data had been downloaded among the more than 1200 registered users. Over 250 journal articles, based at least in part on the dataset, have been published or have been accepted for peer-reviewed publication. Countries from which models have been gathered include Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany and Korea, Italy, Japan, Norway, Russia, Great Britain and the United States. Models, variables, and documentation are collected and stored. Check http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/data_status_tables.htm to see at a glance the output that is available. (Description taken from http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php)

  16. Global manufacturing model and case studies 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kijtawesataporn, Komsun

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of cross-border environments such as cultures, economics and politics. As illustrations of the model, two case studies are composed. First, SmartDrill Company shows the cross-cultural and economic influences on the company plan to establish a green...

  17. Is There Still Time to Avoid `Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference' with Global Climate?*#

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hansen, James E.

    curve', measuring both the pulse of Nature and a steadily rising human impact on atmospheric composition's temperature, with rapid global warming over the past 30 years, is now passing through the peak level infrastructure that may be built within a decade will make it impractical to keep further global warming under 1

  18. Paleoproterozoic snowball Earth: Extreme climatic and geochemical global change and its

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    biological productivity, melting of the oceanic ice would also have induced a cyanobacterial bloom, leading iron formations and cap carbonates. Although global glaciation would have dras- tically curtailed glaciation: An ice-albedo feedback will drive a run-away glaciation (8) resulting in 500­1,500 m of global

  19. Final Report on Evaluating the Representation and Impact of Convective Processes in the NCAR Community Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    X. Wu, G. J. Zhang

    2008-04-23T23:59:59.000Z

    Convection and clouds affect atmospheric temperature, moisture and wind fields through the heat of condensation and evaporation and through redistributions of heat, moisture and momentum. Individual clouds have a spatial scale of less than 10 km, much smaller than the grid size of several hundred kilometers used in climate models. Therefore the effects of clouds must be approximated in terms of variables that the model can resolve. Deriving such formulations for convection and clouds has been a major challenge for the climate modeling community due to the lack of observations of cloud and microphysical properties. The objective of our DOE CCPP project is to evaluate and improve the representation of convection schemes developed by PIs in the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and study its impact on global climate simulations. • The project resulted in nine peer-reviewed publications and numerous scientific presentations that directly address the CCPP’s scientific objective of improving climate models. • We developed a package of improved convection parameterization that includes improved closure, trigger condition for convection, and comprehensive treatment of convective momentum transport. • We implemented the new convection parameterization package into several versions of the NCAR models (both coupled and uncoupled). This has led to 1) Improved simulation of seasonal migration of ITCZ; 2) Improved shortwave cloud radiative forcing response to El Niño in CAM3; 3) Improved MJO simulation in both uncoupled and coupled model; and 4) Improved simulation of ENSO in coupled model. • Using the dynamic core of CCM3, we isolated the dynamic effects of convective momentum transport. • We implemented mosaic treatment of subgrid-scale cloud-radiation interaction in CCM3.

  20. Crash testing hydrological models in contrasted climate conditions: An experiment on 216 Australian catchments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    of these models (flow simulation, forecasting, design, reservoir management, climate change impact assessments of climate change on stream- flow has been an increasing concern in the past few years and has been the focus this transposability is a critical issue in the context of climate change impact studies where nonstationary condi

  1. Global Climatic and Stable Isotopic Correlations During the Early Permian (Cisuralian)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Noret, Jordan R.

    2009-06-09T23:59:59.000Z

    for environmental policy decisions. 1.1 Significance of the early Permian climate During the early Permian (~300-270 Ma), Earth?s climate shifted from one similar to the present day to one much warmer, from having abundant glaciers to having few or possibly... at Texas A&M University, USA, with the help of Dr. Boris Chuvashov, a geologist with the Urals Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Specimens collected were assigned to stratigraphic ?horizons?, roughly the Russian equivalent to U.S. formations...

  2. Climate Action Plan (Montana)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Recognizing the profound implications that global warming and climate variation could have on the economy, environment and quality of life in Montana, the Climate Change Advisory Committee (CCAC)...

  3. Climate Change Risks and Conservation Implications for a Threatened Small-Range Mammal Species

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schierup, Mikkel Heide

    and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors of global warming. Conclusions/Significance: Climate change clearly poses a severe threat

  4. A Finite Element Algorithm of a Nonlinear Diffusive Climate Energy Balance Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Díaz, Jesús Ildefonso

    A Finite Element Algorithm of a Nonlinear Diffusive Climate Energy Balance Model R. BERMEJO,1 J. This model belongs to the category of energy balance models introduced independently by the climatologists M climate. The energy balance model we are dealing with consists of a two-dimensional nonlinear parabolic

  5. Global environmental effects of impact-generated aerosols: Results from a general circulation model: Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Covey, C.; Ghan, S.J.; Walton, J.J.; Weissman, P.R.

    1989-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Interception of sunlight by the high altitude worldwide dust cloud generated by impact of a large asteroid or comet would lead to substantial land surface cooling, according to our three-dimensional atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). This result is qualitatively similar to conclusions drawn from an earlier study that employed a one-dimensional atmospheric model, but in the GCM simulation the heat capacity of the oceans substantially mitigates land surface cooling, an effect that one-dimensional models cannot quantify. On the other hand, the low heat capacity of the GCM's land surface allows temperatures to drop more rapidly in the initial stage of cooling than in the one-dimensional model study. These two differences between three-dimensional and one-dimensional model simulations were noted previously in studies of ''nuclear winter; '' GCM-simulated climatic changes in the Alvarez-inspired scenario of ''asteroid/comet winter,'' however, are more severe than in ''nuclear winter'' because the assumed aerosol amount is large enough to intercept all sunlight falling on earth. Impacts of smaller objects -- which would occur much more frequently than the Cretaceous/Tertiary event deduced by Alvarez and coworkers -- could also lead to dramatic, though less severe, climatic changes, according to our GCM. Our conclusion is that it is difficult to imagine an asteroid or comet impact leading to anything approaching complete global freezing, but quite reasonable to assume that impacts at the Alvarez level, or even smaller, dramatically alter the climate in at least a ''patchy'' sense. 30 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  6. Parallel Seismic Ray Tracing in a Global Earth Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genaud, Stéphane

    1 Parallel Seismic Ray Tracing in a Global Earth Model Marc Grunberg * , Stéphane Genaud of the Earth interior, and seismic tomogra- phy is a means to improve knowledge in this #28;eld. In order present in this paper the de- sign of a software program implement- ing a fast seismic ray

  7. Transient climate change and potential croplands of the world in the 21st century

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xiao, Xiangming.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Kicklighter, David W.; McGuire, A. David.; Tian, Hanqin.; Pan, Yude.; Vörösmarty, Charles, J.; Yang, Zili.

    A cropland distribution model, which is based on climate, soil and topography, is applied to estimate the area and spatial distribution of global potential croplands under contemporary climate and to assess the effect of ...

  8. Probabilistic Forecast for Twenty-First-Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (Without Policy) and Climate Parameters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jacoby, Henry D.

    The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model is used to make probabilistic projections of climate change from 1861 to 2100. Since the model’s first projections were published in 2003, ...

  9. Property:Buildings/ModelClimateZone | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are beingZealand Jump to: navigation,Pillar GroupInformationInformationYearConstruction1 JumpModelClimateZone

  10. Accelerated Climate Modeling For Energy Marcia Branstetter Katherine Evans

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office511041cloth DocumentationProducts (VAP) VAP7-0973 1 Introduction In theACME - Accelerated Climate Modeling

  11. FY08 LDRD Final Report Regional Climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bader, D C; Chin, H; Caldwell, P M

    2009-05-19T23:59:59.000Z

    An integrated, multi-model capability for regional climate change simulation is needed to perform original analyses to understand and prepare for the impacts of climate change on the time and space scales that are critical to California's future environmental quality and economic prosperity. Our intent was to develop a very high resolution regional simulation capability to address consequences of climate change in California to complement the global modeling capability that is supported by DOE at LLNL and other institutions to inform national and international energy policies. The California state government, through the California Energy Commission (CEC), institutionalized the State's climate change assessment process through its biennial climate change reports. The bases for these reports, however, are global climate change simulations for future scenarios designed to inform international policy negotiations, and are primarily focused on the global to continental scale impacts of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. These simulations do not meet the needs of California public and private officials who will make major decisions in the next decade that require an understanding of climate change in California for the next thirty to fifty years and its effects on energy use, water utilization, air quality, agriculture and natural ecosystems. With the additional development of regional dynamical climate modeling capability, LLNL will be able to design and execute global simulations specifically for scenarios important to the state, then use those results to drive regional simulations of the impacts of the simulated climate change for regions as small as individual cities or watersheds. Through this project, we systematically studied the strengths and weaknesses of downscaling global model results with a regional mesoscale model to guide others, particularly university researchers, who are using the technique based on models with less complete parameterizations or coarser spatial resolution. Further, LLNL has now built a capability in state-of-the-science mesoscale climate modeling that complements that which it has in global climate simulation, providing potential sponsors with an end-to-end simulation and analysis program.

  12. Vol. 16, No. 2 May 2006Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment World Climate Research Programme

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    's climate system is an energy cycle that converts absorbed solar radiation into heat and associated, its rapid rotation, and its elliptical orbit about the sun, the solar heating is neither uniform nor ARE A NET SINK OF ENERGY Left panel shows zonal, seasonal average generation of available potential energy

  13. Global instability in a Sellers-type model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bodai, Tamas; Lunkeit, Frank; Boschi, Robert

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Ghil-Sellers energy balance model of Earth's climate, features -- for a considerable range of the solar intensity -- two stable climate states (a warm and a cold snowball Earth), where the bistability results from the celebrated ice-albedo feedback. The unstable solution is obtained and characterized in this paper. We find such unstable states by applying for the first time in a geophysical context the so-called edge tracking method that has been used for studying multiple coexisting states in shear flows. We examine robustness, efficiency, and accuracy properties of the edge tracking algorithm. We find that the procedure is the most efficient when taking a single bisection per cycle. Due to the strong diffusivity of the system trajectories of transient dynamics, initialized between the stable states with respect to the mean temperature, are confined to the heteroclininc trajectory, one which connects the fixed unstable and stable states, after relatively short transient times. This constraint dictates a ...

  14. o meet the challenges of global climate change, greenhouse-gas emissions must

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lehmann, Johannes

    . Emissions from fossil fuels are the largest contributor to the anthropo- genic greenhouse effect, so . In my view, it is therefore an attractive target for energy subsidies and for inclusion in the global

  15. Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Deng, Yi

    2014-11-24T23:59:59.000Z

    DOE-GTRC-05596 11/24/2104 Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate PI: Dr. Yi Deng (PI) School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology 404-385-1821, yi.deng@eas.gatech.edu El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Annular Modes (AMs) represent respectively the most important modes of low frequency variability in the tropical and extratropical circulations. The projection of future changes in the ENSO and AM variability, however, remains highly uncertain with the state-of-the-science climate models. This project conducted a process-resolving, quantitative evaluations of the ENSO and AM variability in the modern reanalysis observations and in climate model simulations. The goal is to identify and understand the sources of uncertainty and biases in models’ representation of ENSO and AM variability. Using a feedback analysis method originally formulated by one of the collaborative PIs, we partitioned the 3D atmospheric temperature anomalies and surface temperature anomalies associated with ENSO and AM variability into components linked to 1) radiation-related thermodynamic processes such as cloud and water vapor feedbacks, 2) local dynamical processes including convection and turbulent/diffusive energy transfer and 3) non-local dynamical processes such as the horizontal energy transport in the oceans and atmosphere. In the past 4 years, the research conducted at Georgia Tech under the support of this project has led to 15 peer-reviewed publications and 9 conference/workshop presentations. Two graduate students and one postdoctoral fellow also received research training through participating the project activities. This final technical report summarizes key scientific discoveries we made and provides also a list of all publications and conference presentations resulted from research activities at Georgia Tech. The main findings include: 1) the distinctly different roles played by atmospheric dynamical processes in establishing surface temperature response to ENSO at tropics and extratropics (i.e., atmospheric dynamics disperses energy out of tropics during ENSO warm events and modulate surface temperature at mid-, high-latitudes through controlling downward longwave radiation); 2) the representations of ENSO-related temperature response in climate models fail to converge at the process-level particularly over extratropics (i.e., models produce the right temperature responses to ENSO but with wrong reasons); 3) water vapor feedback contributes substantially to the temperature anomalies found over U.S. during different phases of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), which adds new insight to the traditional picture that cold/warm advective processes are the main drivers of local temperature responses to the NAM; 4) the overall land surface temperature biases in the latest NCAR model (CESM1) are caused by biases in surface albedo while the surface temperature biases over ocean are related to multiple factors including biases in model albedo, cloud and oceanic dynamics, and the temperature biases over different ocean basins are also induced by different process biases. These results provide a detailed guidance for process-level model turning and improvement, and thus contribute directly to the overall goal of reducing model uncertainty in projecting future changes in the Earth’s climate system, especially in the ENSO and AM variability.

  16. A Model of Success: The Carnegie Institute for Global Ecology

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weeks, Kirstin; Lehrer, David; Bean, Jonathan

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Carnegie Institute for Global Ecology Kirstin Weeks, DavidInstitute for Global Ecology, the answer is an unquali? edremarkable about the Global Ecology building is not only how

  17. Economics issues in global climate change: Agriculture forestry and natural resources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reilly, J.; Anderson, M. (eds.)

    1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This book is a collection of 26 papers from a 1990 conference concerning the interface between greenhouse warming and agriculture and forestry. Areas of particular emphasis include methane's importance as a greenhouse gas and agricultural production of methane; agriculture's importance as a response to climatic change; forestry as a potentially powerful abatement method, because forests sequester carbon as part of their natural growth. The book is divided into three parts. First, the implications of examining the full set of greenhouse gases versus just looking at carbon dioxide are discussed. Second, the role of agriculture and forestry in producing greenhouse gases is covered. Third, a series of articles tackles the difficult task of measuring the damages to agriculture that would result if climates do change.

  18. Technical Note: On the Use of Nudging for Aerosol-Climate Model Intercomparison Studies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Kai; Wan, Hui; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, Po-Lun; Rasch, Philip J.; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, U.

    2014-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

    Nudging is an assimilation technique widely used in the development and evaluation of climate models. Con- straining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the artificial forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the relatively strong sensitivity of homogeneous ice nucleation to aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on longwave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. This suggests that nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy, especially for studies that involve both warm and cold clouds.

  19. Global Climate network evolves with North Atlantic Oscillation phases: Coupling to Southern Pacific Ocean

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guez, Oded; Berezin, Yehiel; Wang, Yang; Havlin, Shlomo

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We construct a network from climate records of atmospheric temperature at surface level, at different geographical sites in the globe, using reanalysis data from years 1948-2010. We find that the network correlates with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), both locally in the north Atlantic, and through coupling to the southern Pacific Ocean. The existence of tele-connection links between those areas and their stability over time allows us to suggest a possible physical explanation for this phenomenon.

  20. Climate Change Economics and Policy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Romano, Daniela

    AFRICA COLLEGE Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Adapting to Climate Change 3 CLIMATE...Furthermore, there is strong scientific evidence that climate change will disrupt the global economy, environment and society a growing population in a changing climate is, therefore, a major global challenge. Changes in climate

  1. Parameterization of contrail radiative properties for climate studies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liou, K. N.

    the current and potential effect on global climate change. The line-shaped artificial clouds often visible radiation and absorb infrared radiation emitted from the Earth and atmosphere, and the effect on the global climate change requires a cloud model that statistically represents contrail radiative properties

  2. Global energy and water balance: Characteristics from finite-volume atmospheric model of the IAP/LASG (FAMIL1)

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhou, Linjiong; Bao, Qing; Liu, Yimin; Wu, Guoxiong; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Wang, Xiaocong; He, Bian; Yu, Haiyang; Li, Jiandong

    2015-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper documents version 1 of the Finite-volume Atmospheric Model of the IAP/LASG (FAMIL1), which has a flexible horizontal resolution up to a quarter of 1°. The model, currently running on the ‘‘Tianhe 1A’’ supercomputer, is the atmospheric component of the third-generation Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land climate System model (FGOALS3) which will participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition to describing the dynamical core and physical parameterizations of FAMIL1, this paper describes the simulated characteristics of energy and water balances and compares them with observational/reanalysis data. The comparisons indicate that the model simulates well the seasonalmore »and geographical distributions of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface, as well as the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. A major weakness in the energy balance is identified in the regions where extensive and persistent marine stratocumulus is present. Analysis of the global water balance also indicates realistic seasonal and geographical distributions with the global annual mean of evaporation minus precipitation being approximately 10?? mm d?¹. We also examine the connections between the global energy and water balance and discuss the possible link between the two within the context of the findings from the reanalysis data. Finally, the model biases as well as possible solutions are discussed.« less

  3. Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Codron, Francis

    Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 J relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model climate and Earth System Models, both developed in France and contributing to the 5th coupled model

  4. Feedbacks in a simple prognostic tropical climate model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sherwood, S.C. (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA (United States))

    1999-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A simple four-cell model of the tropical atmosphere in equilibrium with its boundaries is introduced, which can support a variable diabatic circulation and prognostic temperature and humidity profiles. The model is used to predict atmospheric perturbations away from the observed base state. Prognostic variables include radiation, surface fluxes, and dynamic transports, with temperature and water vapor levels determined by conservation constraints. The model includes a specially developed water vapor scheme that performs favorably compared with observations. The model is used to simulate the local and nonlocal sensitivity of the tropical maritime atmosphere to changes in surface temperature and other boundary conditions at very large horizontal scales. The main findings are as follows: (i) The sensitivity of boundary layer convergence to sea surface temperature (SST) variations depends on the behavior of convective heating over cooler regions and may be overestimated by heuristic models that ignore or oversimplify thermodynamic and radiative constraints; (ii) The maintenance of humidity equilibrium over weakly convective areas is modulated by local radiative feedback; (iii) Evaporation feedbacks on SST may be overestimated by heuristic arguments that do not carefully treat atmospheric water transport. An explanation for the constant-relative humidity behavior of general circulation models under climate changes is also offered based on the results.

  5. Can Oceanic Freshwater Flux Amplify Global Warming? LIPING ZHANG AND LIXIN WU

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Can Oceanic Freshwater Flux Amplify Global Warming? LIPING ZHANG AND LIXIN WU Physical Oceanography in global warming are studied using simulations of a climate model in which the freshwater flux changes that the warm climate leads to an acceleration of the global water cycle, which causes freshening in the high

  6. 3D modelling of the early Martian Climate under a denser CO2 atmosphere: Temperatures and CO2 ice clouds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forget, Francois; Millour, Ehouarn; Madeleine, Jean-Baptiste; Kerber, Laura; Leconte, Jeremy; Marcq, Emmanuel; Haberle, Robert M

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    On the basis of geological evidence, it is often stated that the early martian climate was warm enough for liquid water to flow on the surface thanks to the greenhouse effect of a thick atmosphere. We present 3D global climate simulations of the early martian climate performed assuming a faint young sun and a CO2 atmosphere with pressure between 0.1 and 7 bars. The model includes a detailed radiative transfer model using revised CO2 gas collision induced absorption properties, and a parameterisation of the CO2 ice cloud microphysical and radiative properties. A wide range of possible climates is explored by using various values of obliquities, orbital parameters, cloud microphysic parameters, atmospheric dust loading, and surface properties. Unlike on present day Mars, for pressures higher than a fraction of a bar, surface temperatures vary with altitude because of the adiabatic cooling and warming of the atmosphere when it moves vertically. In most simulations, CO2 ice clouds cover a major part of the planet...

  7. Development of an atmospheric aerosol model for studies of global budgets and effects of airborne particulate material

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Giorgi, F.

    1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A microphysics-removal atmospheric aerosol model (AAM) is developed for use in general circulation models (GCMs) to study global budgets and effects of particulate material. In this model the particle population is composed of a set of log-normal modes whose time evolution due to microphysical processes is described via prognostic equations for an appropriate number of moments of the particle-size distribution. Detailed parameterizations of particle coagulation, sedimentation, dry deposition, and wet removal are developed and implemented into the AAM. The AAM is incorporated into a GCM and is applied to two types of studies: (1) characteristics of the particle wet and dry removal processes, and (2) climatic impact of massive particulate injections following a global nuclear war, with emphasis on the sensitivity of the simulated effects to the inclusion of particle microphysics. Results are discussed.

  8. Evaluation of Mixed-Phase Cloud Microphysics Parameterizations with the NCAR Single Column Climate Model (SCAM) and ARM Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, X; Ghan, SJ; Xie, S

    2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Mixed-phase stratus clouds are ubiquitous in the Arctic and play an important role in climate in this region. However, climate models have generally proven unsuccessful at simulating the partitioning of condensed water into liquid droplets and ice crystals in these Arctic clouds, which affect modeled cloud phase, cloud lifetime and radiative properties. An ice nucleation parameterization and a vapor deposition scheme were developed that together provide a physically-consistent treatment of mixed-phase clouds in global climate models. These schemes have been implemented in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmospheric Model Version 3 (CAM3). This report documents the performance of these schemes against ARM Mixed-phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) observations using the CAM single column model version (SCAM). SCAM with our new schemes has a more realistic simulation of the cloud phase structure and the partitioning of condensed water into liquid droplets against observations during the M-PACE than the standard CAM simulations.

  9. Climate sensitivity is investigated for 10 models that are participating in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.We consider the temporal evolution of climate sensitivity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ABSTRACT Climate sensitivity is investigated for 10 models that are participating in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.We consider the temporal evolution of climate sensitivity and we analyze the transient climate sensitivity from fully coupled simulations with a 1% per year increase in CO2 in terms

  10. In 1969 scientists from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, New Jersey, published results from the world's first climate model. Though the model gave scientists their first look

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of scarce resources. Causes of climate change Natural variations in global climate arise from phenomena) that the global pattern of warming during the past half century can be explained without external forcing of phenomena like tropical storms to a warming climate. SC 2010-G01744 Simulation of global hurricane

  11. Global climate change mitigation and sustainable forest management--The challenge of monitoring and verification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makundi, Willy R.

    1997-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, sustainable forest management is discussed within the historical and theoretical framework of the sustainable development debate. The various criteria and indicators for sustainable forest management put forth by different institutions are critically explored. Specific types of climate change mitigation policies/projects in the forest sector are identified and examined in the light of the general criteria for sustainable forest management. Areas of compatibility and contradiction between the climate mitigation objectives and the minimum criteria for sustainable forest management are identified and discussed. Emphasis is put on the problems of monitoring and verifying carbon benefits associated with such projects given their impacts on pre-existing policy objectives on sustainable forest management. The implications of such policy interactions on assignment of carbon credits from forest projects under Joint Implementation/Activities Implemented Jointly initiatives are discussed. The paper concludes that a comprehensive monitoring and verification regime must include an impact assessment on the criteria covered under other agreements such as the Biodiversity and/or Desertification Conventions. The actual carbon credit assigned to a specific project should at least take into account the negative impacts on the criteria for sustainable forest management. The value of the impacts and/or the procedure to evaluate them need to be established by interested parties such as the Councils of the respective Conventions.

  12. Investment Dimension: Enhanced Data Equals Better Climate Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Roeder, Lynne R.

    2010-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. Department of Energy provided the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility with $60 million for new and upgraded instrumentation, equipment, and infrastructure to improve atmospheric data sets. These enhancements will take place among the permanent ARM research sites in Oklahoma and Alaska in the United States, and near the equator in the tropical Western Pacific. They will also advance the capabilities of ARM’s mobile and aerial research platforms. This article focuses on key enhancements - particularly new scanning radars, enhanced lidar technologies, aerosol observation systems, and in situ aircraft probes - that will provide unprecedented data sets for the modeling community.

  13. Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: Initial experiments using GCAM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Wise, Marshall A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Historically climate impacts research and climate mitigation research have been two separate and independent domains of inquiry. Climate mitigation research has investigated greenhouse gas emissions assuming that climate is unchanging. At the same time climate mitigation research has investigated the implications of climate change on the assumption that climate mitigation will proceed without affecting the degree of climate impacts or the ability of human and natural systems to adapt. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) has largely been employed to study climate mitigation. Here we explore the development of capabilities to assess climate change impacts and adaptation within the GCAM model. These capabilities are being developed so as to be able to simultaneously reconcile the joint implications of climate change mitigation, impacts and adaptive potential. This is an important step forward in that it enables direct comparison between climate mitigation activities and climate impacts and the opportunity to understand interactions between the two.

  14. Decision-making in Electricity Generation Based on Global Warming Potential and Life-cycle Assessment for Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvath, Arpad

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    the global warming effect associated with electricityin Electricity Generation Based on Global Warming Potentialin Electricity Generation Based on Global Warming Potential

  15. Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (without Policy) and Climate Parameters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sokolov, Andrei P.

    The MIT Integrated Global System Model is used to make probabilistic projections of climate change from 1861 to 2100. Since the model's first projections were published in 2003 substantial improvements have been made to ...

  16. Development of Ensemble Neural Network Convection Parameterizations for Climate Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fox-Rabinovitz, M. S.; Krasnopolsky, V. M.

    2012-05-02T23:59:59.000Z

    The novel neural network (NN) approach has been formulated and used for development of a NN ensemble stochastic convection parametrization for climate models. This fast parametrization is built based on data from Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) simulations initialized with and forced by TOGA-COARE data. The SAM (System for Atmospheric Modeling), developed by D. Randall, M. Khairoutdinov, and their collaborators, has been used for CRM simulations. The observational data are also used for validation of model simulations. The SAM-simulated data have been averaged and projected onto the GCM space of atmospheric states to implicitly define a stochastic convection parametrization. This parametrization is emulated using an ensemble of NNs. An ensemble of NNs with different NN parameters has been trained and tested. The inherent uncertainty of the stochastic convection parametrization derived in such a way is estimated. Due to these inherent uncertainties, NN ensemble is used to constitute a stochastic NN convection parametrization. The developed NN convection parametrization have been validated in a diagnostic CAM (CAM-NN) run vs. the control CAM run. Actually, CAM inputs have been used, at every time step of the control/original CAM integration, for parallel calculations of the NN convection parametrization (CAM-NN) to produce its outputs as a diagnostic byproduct. Total precipitation (P) and cloudiness (CLD) time series, diurnal cycles, and P and CLD distributions for the large Tropical Pacific Ocean for the parallel CAM-NN and CAM runs show similarity and consistency with the NCEP reanalysis. The P and CLD distributions for the tropical area for the parallel runs have been analyzed first for the TOGA-COARE boreal winter season (November 1992 through February 1993) and then for the winter seasons of the follow-up parallel decadal simulations. The obtained results are encouraging and practically meaningful. They show the validity of the NN approach. This constitutes an important practical conclusion of the study: the obtained results on NN ensembles as a stochastic physics parametrization show a realistic possibility of development of NN convection parametrization for climate (and NWP) models based on learning cloud physics from CRM/SAM simulated data.

  17. Global horizontal irradiance clear sky models : implementation and analysis.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stein, Joshua S.; Hansen, Clifford W.; Reno, Matthew J.

    2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Clear sky models estimate the terrestrial solar radiation under a cloudless sky as a function of the solar elevation angle, site altitude, aerosol concentration, water vapor, and various atmospheric conditions. This report provides an overview of a number of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) clear sky models from very simple to complex. Validation of clear-sky models requires comparison of model results to measured irradiance during clear-sky periods. To facilitate validation, we present a new algorithm for automatically identifying clear-sky periods in a time series of GHI measurements. We evaluate the performance of selected clear-sky models using measured data from 30 different sites, totaling about 300 site-years of data. We analyze the variation of these errors across time and location. In terms of error averaged over all locations and times, we found that complex models that correctly account for all the atmospheric parameters are slightly more accurate than other models, but, primarily at low elevations, comparable accuracy can be obtained from some simpler models. However, simpler models often exhibit errors that vary with time of day and season, whereas the errors for complex models vary less over time.

  18. U.S. Global Change Research Program publishes "National Climate Assessment"

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are beingZealand Jump to:Ezfeedflag JumpID-fTri Global Energy LLC Place: Dallas, Texas2022WindUProject | OpenU.S.report

  19. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: SOME IMPLICATIONS, OPPORTUNITIES. AND CHALLENGES FOR U.S. FORESTRY

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOEThe Bonneville Power AdministrationField8,Dist.Newof EnergyFunding OpportunityF G F ! ( !|ResearchGLOBAL

  20. he Impact of Primary Marine Aerosol on Atmospheric Chemistry, Radiation and Climate: A CCSM Model Development Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Keene, William C. [University of Virginia] [University of Virginia; Long, Michael S. [University of Virginia] [University of Virginia

    2013-05-20T23:59:59.000Z

    This project examined the potential large-scale influence of marine aerosol cycling on atmospheric chemistry, physics and radiative transfer. Measurements indicate that the size-dependent generation of marine aerosols by wind waves at the ocean surface and the subsequent production and cycling of halogen-radicals are important but poorly constrained processes that influence climate regionally and globally. A reliable capacity to examine the role of marine aerosol in the global-scale atmospheric system requires that the important size-resolved chemical processes be treated explicitly. But the treatment of multiphase chemistry across the breadth of chemical scenarios encountered throughout the atmosphere is sensitive to the initial conditions and the precision of the solution method. This study examined this sensitivity, constrained it using high-resolution laboratory and field measurements, and deployed it in a coupled chemical-microphysical 3-D atmosphere model. First, laboratory measurements of fresh, unreacted marine aerosol were used to formulate a sea-state based marine aerosol source parameterization that captured the initial organic, inorganic, and physical conditions of the aerosol population. Second, a multiphase chemical mechanism, solved using the Max Planck Institute for Chemistryâ??s MECCA (Module Efficiently Calculating the Chemistry of the Atmosphere) system, was benchmarked across a broad set of observed chemical and physical conditions in the marine atmosphere. Using these results, the mechanism was systematically reduced to maximize computational speed. Finally, the mechanism was coupled to the 3-mode modal aerosol version of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM v3.6.33). Decadal-scale simulations with CAM v.3.6.33, were run both with and without reactive-halogen chemistry and with and without explicit treatment of particulate organic carbon in the marine aerosol source function. Simulated results were interpreted (1) to evaluate influences of marine aerosol production on the microphysical properties of aerosol populations and clouds over the ocean and the corresponding direct and indirect effects on radiative transfer; (2) atmospheric burdens of reactive halogen species and their impacts on O3, NOx, OH, DMS, and particulate non-sea-salt SO42-; and (3) the global production and influences of marine-derived particulate organic carbon. The model reproduced major characteristics of the marine aerosol system and demonstrated the potential sensitivity of global, decadal-scale climate metrics to multiphase marine-derived components of Earthâ??s troposphere. Due to the combined computational burden of the coupled system, the currently available computational resources were the limiting factor preventing the adequate statistical analysis of the overall impact that multiphase chemistry might have on climate-scale radiative transfer and climate.

  1. Cpl6: The New Extensible, High-Performance Parallel Coupler forthe Community Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Craig, Anthony P.; Jacob, Robert L.; Kauffman, Brain; Bettge,Tom; Larson, Jay; Ong, Everest; Ding, Chris; He, Yun

    2005-03-24T23:59:59.000Z

    Coupled climate models are large, multiphysics applications designed to simulate the Earth's climate and predict the response of the climate to any changes in the forcing or boundary conditions. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is a widely used state-of-art climate model that has released several versions to the climate community over the past ten years. Like many climate models, CCSM employs a coupler, a functional unit that coordinates the exchange of data between parts of climate system such as the atmosphere and ocean. This paper describes the new coupler, cpl6, contained in the latest version of CCSM,CCSM3. Cpl6 introduces distributed-memory parallelism to the coupler, a class library for important coupler functions, and a standardized interface for component models. Cpl6 is implemented entirely in Fortran90 and uses Model Coupling Toolkit as the base for most of its classes. Cpl6 gives improved performance over previous versions and scales well on multiple platforms.

  2. Potential impacts of global climate change on Tijuana River Watershed hydrology - An initial analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Michael D; Cayan, Daniel R

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    run at a daily time step in “water balance mode” at a 1/8 byBased Model of Land Surface Water and Energy Fluxes forwere obtained from the Surface Water Modeling Group at the

  3. atmospheric climate model: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Curry & Webster Atmospheric Thermodynamics Ch1 Composition Ch2 Laws Ch3 Transfers Ch12 Energy Russell, Lynn 10 Climate Sciences: Atmospheric Thermodynamics Environmental...

  4. Climate implications of carbonaceous aerosols: An aerosol microphysical study using the GISS/MATRIX climate model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bauer, Susanne E.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and R. Ruedy, Matrix (multiconfiguration aerosol tracker ofmixing state): An aerosol microphysical module for globalAn investigative review, Aerosol Sci. Technol. , Vol. 40,

  5. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GROUNDWATER RESOURCES R. D. Singh & C. P. Kumar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kumar, C.P.

    of groundwater recharge. A number of Global Climate Models (GCM) are available for understanding climate; Numerical modeling; MODFLOW; UnSat Suite; WetSpass. Introduction Water is indispensable for life, but itsIMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GROUNDWATER RESOURCES R. D. Singh & C. P. Kumar National Institute

  6. The Impact of IBM Cell Technology on the Programming Paradigm in the Context of Computer Systems for Climate and Weather Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhou, Shujia

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Acceleration of Numerical Weather Prediction,” ProceedingsComputer Systems for Climate and Weather Models Shujia Zhouprocesses in climate and weather models demands a continual

  7. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: CONTINUOUS DYNAMIC GRID ADAPTATION IN A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODEL: APPLICATION AND REFINEMENT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prusa, Joseph

    2012-05-08T23:59:59.000Z

    This project had goals of advancing the performance capabilities of the numerical general circulation model EULAG and using it to produce a fully operational atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) that can employ either static or dynamic grid stretching for targeted phenomena. The resulting AGCM combined EULAG�s advanced dynamics core with the �physics� of the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). Effort discussed below shows how we improved model performance and tested both EULAG and the coupled CAM-EULAG in several ways to demonstrate the grid stretching and ability to simulate very well a wide range of scales, that is, multi-scale capability. We leveraged our effort through interaction with an international EULAG community that has collectively developed new features and applications of EULAG, which we exploited for our own work summarized here. Overall, the work contributed to over 40 peer- reviewed publications and over 70 conference/workshop/seminar presentations, many of them invited.

  8. Using Dempster-Shafer Theory to model uncertainty in climate change and environmental impact

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Using Dempster-Shafer Theory to model uncertainty in climate change and environmental impact]. The design wave overtopping in a context of changing climate cannot be deterministically predicted due defense structure due to (1) uncertain elevation of the mean water level and (2) uncertain level of storm

  9. A scalable high-order discontinuous Galerkin method for global atmospheric modeling Hae-Won Choia

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nair, Ramachandran D.

    system model will require a highly scalable and accurate flux-form formulation of atmospheric dynamics supercomputers. 1. INTRODUCTION The future evolution of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) into an Earth

  10. Climate Change and Forest Disturbances

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dale, Virginia H.; Joyce, Linda A.; McNulty, Steve; Neilson, Ronald P.; Ayres, Matthew P.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Hanson, Paul J.; Irland, Lloyd C.; Lugo, Ariel E.; Peterson, Chris J.; Simberloff, Daniel; Swanson, Frederick J.; Stocks, Brian J.; Wotton, B. Michael; Peterson, A. Townsend

    2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of disturbances caused by climate change (e.g., Ojima et al. 1991).Yet modeling studies indicate the im- portance of climate effects on disturbance regimes (He et al. 1999). Local, regional, and global changes in temperature and precipitation can influence... circulation models (GCMs)—one de- veloped by the Hadley Center in the United Kingdom (HADCM2SUL) and one by the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1)—have been selected for this national assessment (MacCracken et al. 2000). These transient GCMs simulate at...

  11. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lettenmaier, Dennis P

    2013-04-08T23:59:59.000Z

    Primary activities are reported in these areas: climate system component studies via one-way coupling experiments; development of the Regional Arctic Climate System Model (RACM); and physical feedback studies focusing on changes in Arctic sea ice using the fully coupled model.

  12. Urban-scale impacts on the global-scale composition and climate effects of anthropogenic aerosols

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cohen, Jason Blake

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A reduced form meta model has been produced to simulate the effects of physical, chemical, and meteorological processing of highly reactive trace species in hypothetical urban areas, which is capable of efficiently simulating ...

  13. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gutowski, William J.

    2013-02-07T23:59:59.000Z

    The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

  14. Predictability and Diagnosis of Low-Frequency Climate Processes in the Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dr. Arthur J. Miller

    2008-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Predicting the climate for the coming decades requires understanding both natural and anthropogenically forced climate variability. This variability is important because it has major societal impacts, for example by causing floods or droughts on land or altering fishery stocks in the ocean. Our results fall broadly into three topics: evaluating global climate model predictions; regional impacts of climate changes over western North America; and regional impacts of climate changes over the eastern North Pacific Ocean.

  15. Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) Interdisciplinary Science Workshop: Decadal Climate Prediction; Aspen, CO; June 22-28, 2008

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Katzenberger, John

    2010-03-12T23:59:59.000Z

    Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10?30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes.

  16. Climate Change Mitigation: Climate, Health, and Equity Implications of the Visible and the Hidden

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shonkoff, Seth Berrin

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2008). "Accountability of networked climate governance: Therise of transnational climate partnerships." GlobalBoard. CARB (2008d). Climate change proposed scoping plan: a

  17. Bringing climate change down to earth : science and participation in Canadian and Australian climate change campaigns

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Padolsky, Miriam Elana

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    about Global Climate Change. Public Understanding of ScienceFoundation. 2005a. Climate Change: A Matter of SurvivalFoundation. 2005b. Climate Change > Actions 2005 [cited 10

  18. Scientific Final Report: COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: CONTINUOUS DYNAMIC GRID ADAPTATION IN A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODEL: APPLICATION AND REFINEMENT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    William J. Gutowski; Joseph M. Prusa, Piotr K. Smolarkiewicz

    2012-04-09T23:59:59.000Z

    This project had goals of advancing the performance capabilities of the numerical general circulation model EULAG and using it to produce a fully operational atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) that can employ either static or dynamic grid stretching for targeted phenomena. The resulting AGCM combined EULAG's advanced dynamics core with the 'physics' of the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). Effort discussed below shows how we improved model performance and tested both EULAG and the coupled CAM-EULAG in several ways to demonstrate the grid stretching and ability to simulate very well a wide range of scales, that is, multi-scale capability. We leveraged our effort through interaction with an international EULAG community that has collectively developed new features and applications of EULAG, which we exploited for our own work summarized here. Overall, the work contributed to over 40 peer-reviewed publications and over 70 conference/workshop/seminar presentations, many of them invited.

  19. Intercomparison and Evaluation of Global Aerosol Microphysical Properties among AeroCom Models of a Range of Complexity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mann, G. W.; Carslaw, K. S.; Reddington, C. L.; Pringle, K. J.; Schulz, M.; Asmi, A.; Spracklen, D. V.; Ridley, D. A.; Woodhouse, M. T.; Lee, L. A.; Zhang, Kai; Ghan, Steven J.; Easter, Richard C.; Liu, Xiaohong; Stier, P.; Lee, Y. H.; Adams, P. J.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.; Bauer, S.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; van Noije, T.; Strunk, A.; Vignati, E.; Bellouin, N.; Dalvi, M.; Johnson, C. E.; Bergman, T.; Kokkola, H.; Von Salzen, Knut; Yu, Fangqun; Luo, Gan; Petzold, A.; Heintzenberg, J.; Clarke, A. D.; Ogren, J. A.; Gras, J.; Baltensperger, Urs; Kaminski, U.; Jennings, S. G.; O'Dowd, C. D.; Harrison, R. M.; Beddows, D. C.; Kulmala, M.; Viisanen, Y.; Ulevicius, V.; Mihalopoulos, Nikos; Zdimal, V.; Fiebig, M.; Hansson, H. C.; Swietlicki, E.; Henzing, J. S.

    2014-05-13T23:59:59.000Z

    Many of the next generation of global climate models will include aerosol schemes which explicitly simulate the microphysical processes that determine the particle size distribution. These models enable aerosol optical properties and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations to be determined by fundamental aerosol processes, which should lead to a more physically based simulation of aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcings. This study examines the global variation in particle size distribution simulated by twelve global aerosol microphysics models to quantify model diversity and to identify any common biases against observations. Evaluation against size distribution measurements from a new European network of aerosol supersites shows that the mean model agrees quite well with the observations at many sites on the annual mean, but there are some seasonal biases common to many sites. In particular, at many of these European sites, the accumulation mode number concentration is biased low during winter and Aitken mode concentrations tend to be overestimated in winter and underestimated in summer. At high northern latitudes, the models strongly underpredict Aitken and accumulation particle concentrations compared to the measurements, consistent with previous studies that have highlighted the poor performance of global aerosol models in the Arctic. In the marine boundary layer, the models capture the observed meridional variation in the size distribution, which is dominated by the Aitken mode at high latitudes, with an increasing concentration of accumulation particles with decreasing latitude. Considering vertical profiles, the models reproduce the observed peak in total particle concentrations in the upper troposphere due to new particle formation, although modelled peak concentrations tend to be biased high over Europe. Overall, the results suggest that most global aerosol microphysics models simulate the global variation of the particle size distribution with a good degree of skill, but some models are in poor agreement with the observations. Further work is required to better constrain size-resolved primary and secondary particle number sources, and an improved understanding of nucleation and growth (e.g. the role of nitrate and secondary organics) will improve the fidelity of simulated particle size distributions.

  20. A GLOBAL MAGNETIC TOPOLOGY MODEL FOR MAGNETIC CLOUDS. I

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hidalgo, M. A. [Departamento de Fisica, Universidad de Alcala (Spain); Nieves-Chinchilla, T., E-mail: miguel.hidalgo@uah.es, E-mail: teresa.nieves-chinchil-1@nasa.gov [Institute for Astrophysics and Computational Sciences Catholic University of America, Washington, DC (United States)

    2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We present an analytical approach to the global magnetic field topology of magnetic clouds (MCs) that considers them like close magnetic structures with torus geometry and with a non-uniform (variable maximum radius) cross section along them. Following our previous approach to the problem of MCs (Hidalgo 2003, 2011), we establish an intrinsic coordinate system for that topology, and then we analytically solve the Maxwell equations in terms of it. The purpose of the present work is to present this model, which will lead us to understand in a more realistic way the physical mechanisms inside MCs. The model has a non-force-free character and also takes into account the time evolution of the cross sections of the MCs in their movement through the interplanetary medium. In this first paper, we obtain the expressions for the components of the magnetic field and the plasma current density imposing a large mean radius of the torus, and imposing a circular cross section with a variable maximum radius. Eventually, we fit the model to data related to four well-known MCs measurements at 1 AU, (three of them with circular cross sections and without expansion, as it is deduced from the experimental data). We compare the results of this toroidal model with those obtained with our previous cylindrical circular cross section model, also with a non-force-free character.

  1. The impact of climate, CO2, nitrogen deposition and land use change on simulated contemporary global river flow

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoffman, Forrest M.

    The impact of climate, CO2, nitrogen deposition and land use change on simulated contemporary., 38, L08704, doi:10.1029/ 2011GL046773. 1. Introduction [2] Climate change and human activities and Fung [2008] found that climate and land use change play more important roles than the stomatal closure

  2. CO2 threshold for millennial-scale oscillations in the climate system: implications for global warming scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meissner, Katrin Juliane

    conditions, some records of the recent climate history indicate that millennial oscillations are also part intervals (Bond et al. 1997). The cause of these abrupt changes in climate is still under investigation: whereas most climate scientists see changes in the strength of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation

  3. The Program for climate Model diagnosis and Intercomparison: 20-th anniversary Symposium

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Potter, Gerald L; Bader, David C; Riches, Michael; Bamzai, Anjuli; Joseph, Renu

    2011-01-05T23:59:59.000Z

    Twenty years ago, W. Lawrence (Larry) Gates approached the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Research (now the Office of Science) with a plan to coordinate the comparison and documentation of climate model differences. This effort would help improve our understanding of climate change through a systematic approach to model intercomparison. Early attempts at comparing results showed a surprisingly large range in control climate from such parameters as cloud cover, precipitation, and even atmospheric temperature. The DOE agreed to fund the effort at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), in part because of the existing computing environment and because of a preexisting atmospheric science group that contained a wide variety of expertise. The project was named the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), and it has changed the international landscape of climate modeling over the past 20 years. In spring 2009 the DOE hosted a 1-day symposium to celebrate the twentieth anniversary of PCMDI and to honor its founder, Larry Gates. Through their personal experiences, the morning presenters painted an image of climate science in the 1970s and 1980s, that generated early support from the international community for model intercomparison, thereby bringing PCMDI into existence. Four talks covered Gates���¢��������s early contributions to climate research at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), the RAND Corporation, and Oregon State University through the founding of PCMDI to coordinate the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The speakers were, in order of presentation, Warren Washington [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)], Kelly Redmond (Western Regional Climate Center), George Boer (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis), and Lennart Bengtsson [University of Reading, former director of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)]. The afternoon session emphasized the scientific ideas that are the basis of PCMDI���¢��������s success, summarizing their evolution and impact. Four speakers followed the various PCMDI-supported climate model intercomparison projects, beginning with early work on cloud representations in models, presented by Robert D. Cess (Distinguished Professor Emeritus, Stony Brook University), and then the latest Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Projects (CFMIPs) led by Sandrine Bony (Laboratoire de M�������©t�������©orologie Dynamique). Benjamin Santer (LLNL) presented a review of the climate change detection and attribution (D & A) work pioneered at PCMDI, and Gerald A. Meehl (NCAR) ended the day with a look toward the future of climate change research.

  4. Improvement of snowpack simulations in a regional climate model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jin, J.; Miller, N.L.

    2011-01-10T23:59:59.000Z

    To improve simulations of regional-scale snow processes and related cold-season hydroclimate, the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3), developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), was coupled with the Pennsylvania State University/NCAR fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). CLM3 physically describes the mass and heat transfer within the snowpack using five snow layers that include liquid water and solid ice. The coupled MM5–CLM3 model performance was evaluated for the snowmelt season in the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwestern United States using gridded temperature and precipitation observations, along with station observations. The results from MM5–CLM3 show a significant improvement in the SWE simulation, which has been underestimated in the original version of MM5 coupled with the Noah land-surface model. One important cause for the underestimated SWE in Noah is its unrealistic land-surface structure configuration where vegetation, snow and the topsoil layer are blended when snow is present. This study demonstrates the importance of the sheltering effects of the forest canopy on snow surface energy budgets, which is included in CLM3. Such effects are further seen in the simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation in regional weather and climate models such as MM5. In addition, the snow-season surface albedo overestimated by MM5–Noah is now more accurately predicted by MM5–CLM3 using a more realistic albedo algorithm that intensifies the solar radiation absorption on the land surface, reducing the strong near-surface cold bias in MM5–Noah. The cold bias is further alleviated due to a slower snowmelt rate in MM5–CLM3 during the early snowmelt stage, which is closer to observations than the comparable components of MM5–Noah. In addition, the over-predicted precipitation in the Pacific Northwest as shown in MM5–Noah is significantly decreased in MM5 CLM3 due to the lower evaporation resulting from the longer snow duration.

  5. Predicting Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Modes with a Climate Modeling Hierarchy -- Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Michael Ghil, UCLA; Andrew W. Robertson, IRI, Columbia Univ.; Sergey Kravtsov, U. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee; Padhraic Smyth, UC Irvine

    2006-08-04T23:59:59.000Z

    The goal of the project was to determine midlatitude climate predictability associated with tropical-extratropical interactions on interannual-to-interdecadal time scales. Our strategy was to develop and test a hierarchy of climate models, bringing together large GCM-based climate models with simple fluid-dynamical coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere models, through the use of advanced probabilistic network (PN) models. PN models were used to develop a new diagnostic methodology for analyzing coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions in large climate simulations made with the NCAR Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and to make these tools user-friendly and available to other researchers. We focused on interactions between the tropics and extratropics through atmospheric teleconnections (the Hadley cell, Rossby waves and nonlinear circulation regimes) over both the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and the ocean’s thermohaline circulation (THC) in the Atlantic. We tested the hypothesis that variations in the strength of the THC alter sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and that the latter influence the atmosphere in high latitudes through an atmospheric teleconnection, feeding back onto the THC. The PN model framework was used to mediate between the understanding gained with simplified primitive equations models and multi-century simulations made with the PCM. The project team is interdisciplinary and built on an existing synergy between atmospheric and ocean scientists at UCLA, computer scientists at UCI, and climate researchers at the IRI.

  6. On the Single-Zone Modeling for Optimal Climate Control of a Real-Sized Livestock Stable System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Zhenyu

    climate control systems. A typical modern stable system is usually equipped with a hybrid ventilation [3On the Single-Zone Modeling for Optimal Climate Control of a Real-Sized Livestock Stable System and implementation of a model-based optimal indoor climate control for a real-sized livestock stable system

  7. Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, A.; Weaver, C. P.; Morefield, Philip; Huang, Jin; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Adams, P. J.; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, J.; Mahoney, Hardee

    2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices.

  8. Modeling Climate Feedbacks to Energy Demand: The Case of China

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Asadoorian, Malcolm O.

    This paper is an empirical investigation of the effects of climate on the use of electricity by consumers and producers in urban and rural areas within China. It takes advantage of an unusual combination of temporal and ...

  9. Modeled climate change effects on distributions of Canadian butterfly species

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peterson, A. Townsend; Martí nez-Meyer, Enrique; Gonzá lez-Salazar, Constantino; Hall, Peter W.

    2004-07-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Abstract: Climate change effects on biodiversity are being documented now frequently in the form of changes in phenology and distributional shifts. However, the form that these effects will take over a longer timespan is ...

  10. A SIMULATION MODEL FOR CANADA-US CLIMATE POLICY ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    gas emissions; carbon tax; energy consumption; energy supply; energy trade Subject Terms: Climatic forecasts energy demand and emissions by simulating the consumption of energy services and the choice, Washington 99352 USA ___________________________________________ Dr. John Nyboer Adjunct Professor School

  11. Evaluation of short-term climate change prediction in multi-model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Peter J.

    events such as trop- ical cyclone activity. On decadal timescales, some aspects of internal climate skill of individual models have been analyzed separately for multi-year prediction horizons over

  12. Modeling Climate-Water Impacts on Electricity Sector Capacity Expansion: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.

    2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Climate change has the potential to exacerbate water availability concerns for thermal power plant cooling, which is responsible for 41% of U.S. water withdrawals. This analysis describes an initial link between climate, water, and electricity systems using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity system capacity expansion model. Average surface water projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) data are applied to surface water rights available to new generating capacity in ReEDS, and electric sector growth is compared with and without climate-influenced water rights. The mean climate projection has only a small impact on national or regional capacity growth and water use because most regions have sufficient unappropriated or previously retired water rights to offset climate impacts. Climate impacts are notable in southwestern states that purchase fewer water rights and obtain a greater share from wastewater and other higher-cost water resources. The electric sector climate impacts demonstrated herein establish a methodology to be later exercised with more extreme climate scenarios and a more rigorous representation of legal and physical water availability.

  13. Downscaling Global Land Cover Projections from an Integrated Assessment Model for Use in Regional Analyses: Results and Evaluation for the US from 2005 to 2095

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    West, Tristram O.; Le Page, Yannick LB; Huang, Maoyi; Wolf, Julie; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-06-05T23:59:59.000Z

    Projections of land cover change generated from Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and other economic-based models can be applied for analyses of environmental impacts at subregional and landscape scales. For those IAM and economic models that project land use at the sub-continental or regional scale, these projections must be downscaled and spatially distributed prior to use in climate or ecosystem models. Downscaling efforts to date have been conducted at the national extent with relatively high spatial resolution (30m) and at the global extent with relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.5 degree).

  14. Experiments with a time-dependent, zonally averaged, seasonal, enery balance climatic model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thompson, Starley Lee

    1977-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    EXPERIMENTS WITH A TI&E-DEPENDENT, ZONALLY AVERAGED, SEASONAL, ENERGY BALANCE CLIMATIC MODEL A Thesis by STARLEY LEE THOMPSON Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the decree... of MASTER OF SCIENCE December 1977 Major Subject: Meteorology EXPERIMENTS WITH A TIME DEPENDENT~ ZONALLY AVERAGED~ SEASONAL, ENERGY BALANCE CLIMATIC MODEL A Thesis by STARLEY LEE THOMPSON Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee...

  15. Experiments with a time-dependent, zonally averaged, seasonal, enery balance climatic model 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thompson, Starley Lee

    1977-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    EXPERIMENTS WITH A TI&E-DEPENDENT, ZONALLY AVERAGED, SEASONAL, ENERGY BALANCE CLIMATIC MODEL A Thesis by STARLEY LEE THOMPSON Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the decree... of MASTER OF SCIENCE December 1977 Major Subject: Meteorology EXPERIMENTS WITH A TIME DEPENDENT~ ZONALLY AVERAGED~ SEASONAL, ENERGY BALANCE CLIMATIC MODEL A Thesis by STARLEY LEE THOMPSON Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee...

  16. Global transportation cost modeling for long-range planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pope, R.B.; Michelhaugh, R.D.; Singley, P.T. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Lester, P.B. [Dept. of Energy, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    1998-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to perform significant remediation activities of the sites for which it is responsible. To accomplish this, it is preparing a corporate global plan focused on activities over the next decade. Significant in these planned activities is the transportation of the waste arising from the remediation. The costs of this transportation are expected to be large. To support the initial assessment of the plan, a cost estimating model was developed, peer-reviewed against other available packaging and transportation cost data, and applied to a significant number of shipping campaigns of radioactive waste. This cost estimating model, known as the Ten-year Plan Transportation Cost Model (TEPTRAM), can be used to model radioactive material shipments between DOE sites or from DOE sites to non-DOE destinations. The model considers the costs for (a) recovering and processing of the wastes, (b)packaging the wastes for transport, and (c) the carriage of the waste. It also provides a rough order of magnitude estimate of labor costs associated with preparing and undertaking the shipments. At the user`s direction, the model can also consider the cost of DOE`s interactions with its external stakeholders (e.g., state and local governments and tribal entities) and the cost associated with tracking and communicating with the shipments. By considering all of these sources of costs, it provides a mechanism for assessing and comparing the costs of various waste processing and shipping campaign alternatives to help guide decision-making. Recent analyses of specific planned shipments of transuranic (TRU) waste which consider alternative packaging options are described. These analyses show that options are available for significantly reducing total costs while still satisfying regulatory requirements.

  17. Analysis of U.S. Water Resources under Climate Change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Blanc, E.

    The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, extended to include a Water Resource System (WRS) component, is applied to an integrated assessment of effects of alternative climate policy scenarios on U.S. water ...

  18. Discriminating robust and non-robust atmospheric circulation responses to global warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Discriminating robust and non-robust atmospheric circulation responses to global warming Michael response to global warming in a set of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) is investigated. The global-warmed climate is forced by a global pattern of warmed ocean surface temperatures

  19. Modeled Interactive Effects of Precipitation, temperature, and [CO2] on Ecosystem Carbon and Water Dynamics in Different Climatic Zones

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Luo, Yiqi [University of Oklahoma; Gerten, Dieter [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Le Maire, Guerric [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environement, France; Parton, William [University of Colorado, Fort Collins; Weng, Ensheng [University of Oklahoma, Norman; Zhou, Xuhuui [University of Oklahoma; Keough, Cindy [University of Colorado, Fort Collins; Beier, Claus [Riso National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark; Ciais, Philippe [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environement, France; Cramer, Wolfgang [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Dukes, Jeff [University of Massachusetts, Boston; Emmett, Bridget [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bangor, Gwynedd, United Kingdom; Hanson, Paul J [ORNL; Knapp, Alan [Colorado State University, Fort Collins; Linder, Sune [Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Upsalla, Sweden; Nepstad, Daniel [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Woods Hole, MA; Rustad, Lindsey [USDA Forest Service

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Interactive effects of multiple global change factors on ecosystem processes are complex. It is relatively expensive to explore those interactions in manipulative experiments. We conducted a modeling analysis to identify potentially important interactions and to stimulate hypothesis formulation for experimental research. Four models were used to quantify interactive effects of climate warming (T), altered precipitation amounts [doubled (DP) and halved (HP)] and seasonality (SP, moving precipitation in July and August to January and February to create summer drought), and elevated [CO2] (C) on net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), net ecosystem production (NEP), transpiration, and runoff.We examined those responses in seven ecosystems, including forests, grasslands, and heathlands in different climate zones. The modeling analysis showed that none of the threeway interactions among T, C, and altered precipitation was substantial for either carbon or water processes, nor consistent among the seven ecosystems. However, two-way interactive effects on NPP, Rh, and NEP were generally positive (i.e. amplification of one factor s effect by the other factor) between T and C or between T and DP. A negative interaction (i.e. depression of one factor s effect by the other factor) occurred for simulated NPP between T and HP. The interactive effects on runoff were positive between T and HP. Four pairs of two-way interactive effects on plant transpiration were positive and two pairs negative. In addition, wet sites generally had smaller relative changes in NPP, Rh, runoff, and transpiration but larger absolute changes in NEP than dry sites in response to the treatments. The modeling results suggest new hypotheses to be tested in multifactor global change experiments. Likewise, more experimental evidence is needed for the further improvement of ecosystem models in order to adequately simulate complex interactive processes.

  20. The China-in-Global Energy Model Tianyu Qi, Niven Winchester, Da Zhang,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of production, consumption and trade among multiple global regions and sectors ­ including five energy to communicate research results and improve public understanding of global environment and energy challenges-intensive sectors ­ to analyze global energy demand, CO2 emissions, and economic activity. The C-GEM model supplies

  1. LONG-TERM GLOBAL WATER USE PROJECTIONS USING SIX SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING FRAMEWORK

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.; Moss, Richard H.; Kim, Son H.

    2014-01-19T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change – the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demands—both gross withdrawals and net consumptive use—are assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. We assess future water demands representing six socioeconomic scenarios, with no constraints imposed by future water supplies. The scenarios observe increases in global water withdrawals from 3,578 km3 year-1 in 2005 to 5,987 – 8,374 km3 year-1 in 2050, and to 4,719 – 12,290 km3 year-1 in 2095. Comparing the projected total regional water withdrawals to the historical supply of renewable freshwater, the Middle East exhibits the highest levels of water scarcity throughout the century, followed by India; water scarcity increases over time in both of these regions. In contrast, water scarcity improves in some regions with large base-year electric sector withdrawals, such as the USA and Canada, due to capital stock turnover and the almost complete phase-out of once-through flow cooling systems. The scenarios indicate that: 1) water is likely a limiting factor in climate change mitigation policies, 2) many regions can be expected to increase reliance on non-renewable groundwater, water reuse, and desalinated water, but they also highlight an important role for development and deployment of water conservation technologies and practices.

  2. Climate Variability and Climate Change: The New Climate Dice 10 November 2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hansen, James E.

    1 Climate Variability and Climate Change: The New Climate Dice 10 November 2011 J. Hansen, M. Sato, coincident with increased global warming. The most dramatic and important change of the climate dice change is the natural variability of climate. How can a person discern long-term climate change, given

  3. The Science of Climate Change From the Globe to the Pacific Northwest

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kurapov, Alexander

    University 27 October 2004, WESTCARB, Portland Oregon #12;Climate System ComponentsClimate System Components #12;Greenhouse Effect #12;Cooling Factors #12;Feedback Summary Anomalies and uncertainties, Global IPCC (2003) Best fit model combines natural and anthropogenic forcing #12;Future Global Predictions

  4. Tropical Water Vapor and Cloud Feedbacks in Climate Models: A Further Assessment Using Coupled Simulations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sun, Dezheng

    ). A small change in these radiative effects of water vapor and clouds can either offset or greatly amplify global warming, we find no significant correlation between the inter-model variations in the cloud albedo feedback during ENSO and the inter-model variations in the cloud albedo feedback during global warming

  5. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix L: Climate Change and Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    demand for electricity and production of hydroelectric generation. Global climate change models all seem. There are at least two ways in which climate can affect the power plan. First, warming trends will alter electricitySixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix L: Climate Change and Power Planning

  6. Climate-Soil-Vegetation Control on Groundwater Table Dynamics and its Feedbacks in a Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Huang, Maoyi; Qian, Yun; Liang, Xu

    2010-01-29T23:59:59.000Z

    Among the three dynamically linked branches of the water cycle, including atmospheric, surface, and subsurface water, groundwater is the largest reservoir and an active component of the hydrologic system. Because of the inherent slow response time, groundwater may be particularly relevant for long time-scale processes such as multi-years or decadal droughts. This study uses regional climate simulations with and without surface water – groundwater interactions for the conterminous U.S. to assess the influence of climate, soil, and vegetation on groundwater table dynamics, and its potential feedbacks to regional climate. Analysis shows that precipitation has a dominant influence on the spatial and temporal variations of groundwater table depth (GWT). The simulated GWT is found to decrease sharply with increasing precipitation. Our simulation also shows some distinct spatial variations that are related to soil porosity and hydraulic conductivity. Vegetation properties such as minimum stomatal resistance, and root depth and fraction are also found to play an important role in controlling the groundwater table. Comparing two simulations with and without groundwater table dynamics, we find that groundwater table dynamics mainly influences the partitioning of soil water between the surface (0 – 0.5 m) and subsurface (0.5 – 5 m) rather than total soil moisture. In most areas, groundwater table dynamics increases surface soil moisture at the expense of the subsurface, except in regions with very shallow groundwater table. The change in soil water partitioning between the surface and subsurface is found to strongly correlate with the partitioning of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. The evaporative fraction (EF) is generally higher during summer when groundwater table dynamics is included. This is accompanied by increased cloudiness, reduced diurnal temperature range, cooler surface temperature, and increased cloud top height. Although both convective and non-convective precipitation are enhanced, the higher EF changes the partitioning to favor more non-convective precipitation, but this result could be sensitive to the convective parameterization used. Compared to simulations without groundwater table dynamics, the dry bias in the summer precipitation is slightly reduced over the central and eastern U.S. Groundwater table dynamics can provide important feedbacks to atmospheric processes, and these feedbacks are stronger in regions with deeper groundwater table, because the interactions between surface and subsurface are weak when the groundwater table is deep. This increases the sensitivity of surface soil moisture to precipitation anomalies, and therefore enhances land surface feedbacks to the atmosphere through changes in soil moisture and evaporative fraction. By altering the groundwater table depth, land use change and groundwater withdrawal can alter land surface response and feedback to the climate system.

  7. Impact of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet interactions on climate sensitivity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goelzer, Heiko

    Impact of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet interactions on climate sensitivity H. Goelzer · P versions including interactive Greenland and Ant- arctic ice sheet models and model versions with fixed ice a few global climate models exist that include dynami- cally coupled models for the Greenland (e

  8. Enduse Global Emissions Mitigation Scenarios (EGEMS): A New Generation of Energy Efficiency Policy Planning Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNeil, Michael A.; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; McMahon, James E.

    2009-05-29T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents efforts to date and prospective goals towards development of a modelling and analysis framework which is comprehensive enough to address the global climate crisis, and detailed enough to provide policymakers with concrete targets and achievable outcomes. In terms of energy efficiency policy, this requires coverage of the entire world, with emphasis on countries and regions with large and/or rapidly growing energy-related emissions, and analysis at the 'technology' level-building end use, transport mode or industrial process. These elements have not been fully addressed by existing modelling efforts, which usually take either a top-down approach, or concentrate on a few fully industrialized countries where energy demand is well-understood. Inclusion of details such as appliance ownership rates, use patterns and efficiency levels throughout the world allows for a deeper understanding of the demand for energy today and, more importantly, over the coming decades. This is a necessary next step for energy analysts and policy makers in assessment of mitigation potentials. The modelling system developed at LBNL over the past 3 years takes advantage of experience in end use demand and in forecasting markets for energy-consuming equipment, in combination with known technology-based efficiency opportunities and policy types. A particular emphasis has been placed on modelling energy growth in developing countries. Experiences to date include analyses covering individual countries (China and India), end uses (refrigerators and air conditioners) and policy types (standards and labelling). Each of these studies required a particular effort in data collection and model refinement--they share, however, a consistent approach and framework which allows comparison, and forms the foundation of a comprehensive analysis system leading to a roadmap to address the greenhouse gas mitigation targetslikely to be set in the coming years.

  9. Perspective: The Climate-Population-Infrastructure Modeling and Simulation Fertile Area for New Research

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Allen, Melissa R [ORNL; Fernandez, Steven J [ORNL; Walker, Kimberly A [ORNL; Fu, Joshua S [ORNL

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Managing the risks posed by climate change and extreme weather to energy production and delivery is a challenge to communities worldwide. As climate conditions change, populations will shift, and demand will re-locate; and networked infrastructures will evolve to accommodate new load centers, and, hopefully, minimize vulnerability to natural disaster. Climate effects such as sea level rise, increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters, force populations to move locations. Displaced population creates new demand for built infrastructure that in turn generates new economic activity that attracts new workers and associated households to the new locations. Infrastructures and their interdependencies will change in reaction to climate drivers as the networks expand into new population areas and as portions of the networks are abandoned as people leave. Thus, infrastructures will evolve to accommodate new load centers while some parts of the network are underused, and these changes will create emerging vulnerabilities. Forecasting the location of these vulnerabilities by combining climate predictions and agent based population movement models shows promise for defining these future population distributions and changes in coastal infrastructure configurations. By combining climate and weather data, engineering algorithms and social theory it has been only recently possible to examine electricity demand response to increased climactic temperatures, population relocation in response to extreme cyclonic events, consequent net population changes and new regional patterns in electricity demand. These emerging results suggest a research agenda of coupling these disparate modelling approaches to understand the implications of climate change for protecting the nation s critical infrastructure.

  10. Earth System Modeling Facility: Linking Climate to Cal-(IT)2 and OptIPuter

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rose, Michael R.

    Earth System Modeling Facility: Linking Climate to Cal-(IT)2 and OptIPuter Charlie Zender in quantitatively-based environmental planning. #12;1. Overview Present: 1. Earth System Modeling Facility (ESMF) 2 and Planning #12;2. Earth System Modeling Facility (ESMF) Background: In 2003, NSF, UCI, & IGPP awarded $1.3M

  11. Dissemination of Climate Model Output to the Public and Commercial Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robert Stockwell, PhD

    2010-09-23T23:59:59.000Z

    Climate is defined by the Glossary of Meteorology as the mean of atmospheric variables over a period of time ranging from as short as a few months to multiple years and longer. Although the term climate is often used to refer to long-term weather statistics, the broader definition of climate is the time evolution of a system consisting of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. Physical, chemical, and biological processes are involved in interactions among the components of the climate system. Vegetation, soil moisture, and glaciers are part of the climate system in addition to the usually considered temperature and precipitation (Pielke, 2008). Climate change refers to any systematic change in the long-term statistics of climate elements (such as temperature, pressure, or winds) sustained over several decades or longer. Climate change can be initiated by external forces, such as cyclical variations in the Earth's solar orbit that are thought to have caused glacial and interglacial periods within the last 2 million years (Milankovitch, 1941). However, a linear response to astronomical forcing does not explain many other observed glacial and interglacial cycles (Petit et al., 1999). It is now understood that climate is influenced by the interaction of solar radiation with atmospheric greenhouse gasses (e.g., carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane, nitrous oxide, etc.), aerosols (airborne particles), and Earth's surface. A significant aspect of climate are the interannual cycles, such as the El Nino La Nina cycle which profoundly affects the weather in North America but is outside the scope of weather forecasts. Some of the most significant advances in understanding climate change have evolved from the recognition of the influence of ocean circulations upon the atmosphere (IPCC, 2007). Human activity can affect the climate system through increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases, air pollution, increasing concentrations of aerosol, and land alteration. A particular concern is that atmospheric levels of CO{sub 2} may be rising faster than at any time in Earth's history, except possibly following rare events like impacts from large extraterrestrial objects (AMS, 2007). Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations have increased since the mid-1700s through fossil fuel burning and changes in land use, with more than 80% of this increase occurring since 1900. The increased levels of CO{sub 2} will remain in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. The complexity of the climate system makes it difficult to predict specific aspects of human-induced climate change, such as exactly how and where changes will occur, and their magnitude. The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) was established by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations in 1988. The IPCC was tasked with assessing the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information needed to understand the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC concluded in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increased in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC, 2007).

  12. MODELING CLIMATE POLICY: ADDRESSING THE CHALLENGES OF POLICY EFFECTIVENESS AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    on average do not appear to have been cost-effective in reducing energy consumption. iii #12;Acknowledgments aggressive cli- mate change policies. Policy makers and the public are concerned that such policies could, or economic sectors. The aim of this thesis is to show that the design of climate change policy has

  13. Integrating soil moisture and groundwater into climate models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Krakauer, Nir Y.

    dNm dt =m Nm1- Nm -h Nh min1, Nm State transition to oscillatory solutions with efficient hunting: same initial and boundary conditions, but soil moisture set to seasonal climatology from DYNA experiments: Irrigation Simulate equilibrium climate with a mixed- layer ocean, year-2000 or 2050 (A1B

  14. IMPROVING PREDICTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: OBSERVATIONAL AND MODELING REQUIREMENTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the atmosphere, largely because of emissions from fossil fuel combustion. An increase in atmospheric CO2 would, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton NY 11973 USA (ses@bnl.gov) Carbon dioxide (CO2) is building up is the extent of climate change that will result from future increases in atmospheric CO2. Confident knowledge

  15. The response of glaciers to intrinsic climate variability: observations and models of late-Holocene variations in the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roe, Gerard

    The response of glaciers to intrinsic climate variability: observations and models of late glacier variations due to natural climate variability and those due to true climate change is crucial for the interpretation and attribution of past glacier changes, and for the expectations of future changes. We explore

  16. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic Using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassano, John [Principal Investigator

    2013-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

    The primary research task completed for this project was the development of the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). This involved coupling existing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land models using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) coupler (CPL7). RACM is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model, the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean model, the CICE sea ice model, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. A secondary research task for this project was testing and evaluation of WRF for climate-scale simulations on the large pan-Arctic model domain used in RACM. This involved identification of a preferred set of model physical parameterizations for use in our coupled RACM simulations and documenting any atmospheric biases present in RACM.

  17. Climate Model Intercomparisons: Preparing for the Next Phase

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meehl, J.; Moss, Richard H.; Taylor, K. E.; Eyring, Veronika; Stouffer, R. J.; Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, B.

    2014-03-04T23:59:59.000Z

    The article reports on the Aspen Global Change Institute workshopthat provided an input on scenarios. Our group is continuing to work on a number of aspects of scenarios for the next research cycle.

  18. Modeling the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.

    2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Decisions made to address climate change must start with an understanding of the risk of an uncertain future to human systems, which in turn means understanding both the consequence as well as the probability of a climate induced impact occurring. In other words, addressing climate change is an exercise in risk-informed policy making, which implies that there is no single correct answer or even a way to be certain about a single answer; the uncertainty in future climate conditions will always be present and must be taken as a working-condition for decision making. In order to better understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions, this study estimates the impacts from responses to climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity by employing a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. Using the results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) as a proxy for climate uncertainty, changes in hydrology over the next 40 years were mapped and then modeled to determine the physical consequences on economic activity and to perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of the economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. The analysis determines industry-level effects, employment impacts at the state level, interstate population migration, consequences to personal income, and ramifications for the U.S. trade balance. The conclusions show that the average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs. Further analysis shows that an increase in uncertainty raises this risk. This paper will present the methodology behind the approach, a summary of the underlying models, as well as the path forward for improving the approach.

  19. Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that ...

  20. Probabilistic Projections of 21st Century Climate Change over Northern Eurasia

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    2013-07-18T23:59:59.000Z

    We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that ...