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Sample records for global climate cycle

  1. Multi-century Changes to Global Climate and Carbon Cycle: Results from a Coupled Climate and Carbon Cycle Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Mirin, A; Wickett, M; Delire, C

    2005-02-17

    In this paper, we use a coupled climate and carbon cycle model to investigate the global climate and carbon cycle changes out to year 2300 that would occur if CO{sub 2} emissions from all the currently estimated fossil fuel resources were released to the atmosphere. By year 2300, the global climate warms by about 8 K and atmospheric CO{sub 2} reaches 1423 ppmv. The warming is higher than anticipated because the sensitivity to radiative forcing increases as the simulation progresses. In our simulation, the rate of emissions peak at over 30 PgC yr{sup -1} early in the 22nd century. Even at year 2300, nearly 50% of cumulative emissions remain in the atmosphere. In our simulations both soils and living biomass are net carbon sinks throughout the simulation. Despite having relatively low climate sensitivity and strong carbon uptake by the land biosphere, our model projections suggest severe long-term consequences for global climate if all the fossil-fuel carbon is ultimately released to the atmosphere.

  2. DOE-Sponsored Beaufort Sea Expedition Studies Methane's Role in Global Climate Cycle

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Washington, D.C. -- Increased understanding of methane's role in the global climate cycle and the potential of methane hydrate as a future energy resource could result from a recent joint research...

  3. Global Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable ... Climate & Earth Systems Climate Measurement & Modeling Arctic Climate Measurements Global ...

  4. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SunShot Grand Challenge: Regional Test Centers Global Climate & Energy HomeTag:Global Climate & Energy Electricity use by water service sector and county. Shown are electricity ...

  5. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Team Attends World Water Week in Stockholm Climate, Energy, Global Climate & Energy, Modeling, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Water Security Sandia Team Attends World ...

  6. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CRF_climatechange Permalink Gallery Understanding Hazardous Combustion Byproducts Reduces Factors Impacting Climate Change CRF, Global Climate & Energy, News, News & Events, Transportation Energy Understanding Hazardous Combustion Byproducts Reduces Factors Impacting Climate Change By Micheal Padilla Researchers at Sandia's Combustion Research Facility are developing the understanding necessary to build cleaner combustion technologies that will in turn reduce climate impact. Their work

  7. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Participated in the 2013 Domenici Public Policy Conference Carbon Capture & Storage, Carbon Storage, Climate, Earth Sciences Research Center, Energy, Global Climate & Energy, Global Climate & Energy, News, News & Events, Systems Analysis, Systems Engineering, Water Security Sandia Participated in the 2013 Domenici Public Policy Conference Marianne Walck, Director of Sandia's Geoscience, Climate, and Consequence Effects Center, spoke on "Hydraulic Fracturing: The Role

  8. Development of Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerant Solutions for Commercial Refrigeration Systems using a Life Cycle Climate Performance Design Tool

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abdelaziz, Omar; Fricke, Brian A; Vineyard, Edward Allan

    2012-01-01

    Commercial refrigeration systems are known to be prone to high leak rates and to consume large amounts of electricity. As such, direct emissions related to refrigerant leakage and indirect emissions resulting from primary energy consumption contribute greatly to their Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP). In this paper, an LCCP design tool is used to evaluate the performance of a typical commercial refrigeration system with alternative refrigerants and minor system modifications to provide lower Global Warming Potential (GWP) refrigerant solutions with improved LCCP compared to baseline systems. The LCCP design tool accounts for system performance, ambient temperature, and system load; system performance is evaluated using a validated vapor compression system simulation tool while ambient temperature and system load are devised from a widely used building energy modeling tool (EnergyPlus). The LCCP design tool also accounts for the change in hourly electricity emission rate to yield an accurate prediction of indirect emissions. The analysis shows that conventional commercial refrigeration system life cycle emissions are largely due to direct emissions associated with refrigerant leaks and that system efficiency plays a smaller role in the LCCP. However, as a transition occurs to low GWP refrigerants, the indirect emissions become more relevant. Low GWP refrigerants may not be suitable for drop-in replacements in conventional commercial refrigeration systems; however some mixtures may be introduced as transitional drop-in replacements. These transitional refrigerants have a significantly lower GWP than baseline refrigerants and as such, improved LCCP. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the tradeoffs between refrigerant GWP, efficiency and capacity.

  9. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandians Published in American Chemical Society's Environmental Science & Technology Analysis, Climate, Energy, Global Climate & Energy, Modeling, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Systems Analysis, Water Security Sandians Published in American Chemical Society's Environmental Science & Technology Electricity use by water service sector and county. Shown are electricity use by (a) large-scale conveyance, (b) groundwater irrigation pumping, (c) surface water irrigation

  10. Global climate feedbacks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Manowitz, B.

    1990-10-01

    The important physical, chemical, and biological events that affect global climate change occur on a mesoscale -- requiring high spatial resolution for their analysis. The Department of Energy has formulated two major initiatives under the US Global Change Program: ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurements), and CHAMMP (Computer Hardware Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics). ARM is designed to use ground and air-craft based observations to document profiles of atmospheric composition, clouds, and radiative fluxes. With research and models of important physical processes, ARM will delineate the relationships between trace gases, aerosol and cloud structure, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, and will improve the parameterization of global circulation models. The present GCMs do not model important feedbacks, including those from clouds, oceans, and land processes. The purpose of this workshop is to identify such potential feedbacks, to evaluate the uncertainties in the feedback processes (and, if possible, to parameterize the feedback processes so that they can be treated in a GCM), and to recommend research programs that will reduce the uncertainties in important feedback processes. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases.

  11. Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit; Mundra, Anupriya

    2016-08-01

    Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representative Concentrationmore » Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (ΩAr) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H+] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO2 concentrations – Q10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in ΩAr saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations

  12. Global Climate Change Institute | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Change Institute Jump to: navigation, search Name: Global Climate Change Institute Place: Tsinghua University, Beijing Municipality, China Zip: 100084 Product: Global Climate...

  13. Brazil Interministerial Commission on Global Climate Change ...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Interministerial Commission on Global Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Name: Brazil Interministerial Commission on Global Climate Change Place: Distrito Federal...

  14. Integrated Climate and Carbon-cycle Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2006-03-06

    The INCCA model is a numerical climate and carbon cycle modeling tool for use in studying climate change and carbon cycle science. The model includes atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and sea ice components.

  15. Global Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Page 2 - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Energy Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy

  16. Global Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Energy Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy Nuclear Energy

  17. Geographical features of global water cycle during warm geological epochs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Georgiadi, A.G.

    1996-12-31

    The impact of global warming on the water cycle can be extremely complex and diverse. The goal of the investigation was to estimate the geographic features of the mean annual water budget of the world during climatic optimums of the Holocene and the Eemian interglacial periods. These geological epochs could be used as analogs of climatic warming on 1 degree, centigrade and 2 degrees, centigrade. The author used the results of climatic reconstructions based on a simplified version of a GCM.

  18. Global Climate Change and Agriculture

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Izaurralde, Roberto C.

    2009-01-01

    The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released in 2007 significantly increased our confidence about the role that humans play in forcing climate change. There is now a high degree of confidence that the (a) current atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) far exceed those of the pre-industrial era, (b) global increases in CO2 arise mainly from fossil fuel use and land use change while those of CH4 and N2O originate primarily from agricultural activities, and (c) the net effect of human activities since 1750 has led to a warming of the lower layers of the atmosphere, with an increased radiative forcing of 1.6 W m-2. Depending on the scenario of human population growth and global development, mean global temperatures could rise between 1.8 and 4.0 C by the end of the 21st century.

  19. Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models Berkeley Lab Researcher Says Climate Science is Entering New ...

  20. Life cycle inventory analysis of regenerative thermal oxidation of air emissions from oriented strand board facilities in Minnesota - a perspective of global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nicholson, W.J.

    1997-12-31

    Life cycle inventory analysis has been applied to the prospective operation of regenerative thermal oxidation (RTO) technology at oriented strand board plants at Bemidji (Line 1) and Cook, Minnesota. The net system destruction of VOC`s and carbon monoxide, and at Cook a small quantity of particulate, has a very high environmental price in terms of energy and water use, global warming potential, sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions, solids discharged to water, and solid waste deposited in landfills. The benefit of VOC destruction is identified as minor in terms of ground level ozone at best and possibly slightly detrimental. Recognition of environmental tradeoffs associated with proposed system changes is critical to sound decision-making. There are more conventional ways to address carbon monoxide emissions than combustion in RTO`s. In an environment in which global warming is a concern, fuel supplemental combustion for environmental control does not appear warranted. Consideration of non-combustion approaches to address air emission issues at the two operations is recommended. 1 ref., 5 tabs.

  1. Impact of Geoengineering Schemes on the Global Hydrological Cycle

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bala, G; Duffy, P; Taylor, K

    2007-12-07

    The rapidly rising CO{sub 2} level in the atmosphere has led to proposals of climate stabilization via 'Geoengineering' schemes that would mitigate climate change by intentionally reducing the solar radiation incident on earth's surface. In this paper, we address the impact of these climate stabilization schemes on the global hydrological cycle, using equilibrium simulations from an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. We show that insolation reductions sufficient to offset global-scale temperature increases lead to a decrease in the intensity of the global hydrologic cycle. This occurs because solar forcing is more effective in driving changes in global mean evaporation than is CO{sub 2} forcing of a similar magnitude. In the model used here, the hydrologic sensitivity, defined as the percentage change in global mean precipitation per degree warming, is 2.4% for solar forcing, but only 1.5% for CO{sub 2} forcing. Although other models and the climate system itself may differ quantitatively from this result, the conclusion can be understood based on simple considerations of the surface energy budget and thus is likely to be robust. Compared to changing temperature by altering greenhouse gas concentrations, changing temperature by varying insolation results in larger changes in net radiative fluxes at the surface; these are compensated by larger changes in latent and sensible heat fluxes. Hence the hydrological cycle is more sensitive to temperature adjustment via changes in insolation than changes in greenhouse gases. This implies that an alteration in solar forcing might offset temperature changes or hydrological changes from greenhouse warming, but could not cancel both at once.

  2. ARM Data Help Improve Precipitation in Global Climate Models...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    ARM Data Help Improve Precipitation in Global Climate Models Biological and Environmental ... ARM Data Help Improve Precipitation in Global Climate Models Cloud, radiation, and drizzle ...

  3. Financing a Global Deal on Climate Change | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Financing a Global Deal on Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Financing a Global Deal on Climate Change AgencyCompany Organization: United...

  4. Pew Center on Global Climate Change | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Pew Center on Global Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Name: Pew Center on Global Climate Change Place: Arlington, Virginia Zip: 22201 Product: Established in 1998 as a...

  5. Financing Global Climate Change Mitigation | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Climate Change Mitigation Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Financing Global Climate Change Mitigation AgencyCompany Organization: United Nations...

  6. Mobile Facility Records Annual Climate Cycle in Niger, Africa

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Records Annual Climate Cycle in Niger, Africa Because dust can block incoming solar energy, and because solar energy drives weather and climate, scientists around the world...

  7. Global Biogeochemistry Models and Global Carbon Cycle Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Covey, C; Caldeira, K; Guilderson, T; Cameron-Smith, P; Govindasamy, B; Swanston, C; Wickett, M; Mirin, A; Bader, D

    2005-05-27

    The climate modeling community has long envisioned an evolution from physical climate models to ''earth system'' models that include the effects of biology and chemistry, particularly those processes related to the global carbon cycle. The widely reproduced Box 3, Figure 1 from the 2001 IPCC Scientific Assessment schematically describes that evolution. The community generally accepts the premise that understanding and predicting global and regional climate change requires the inclusion of carbon cycle processes in models to fully simulate the feedbacks between the climate system and the carbon cycle. Moreover, models will ultimately be employed to predict atmospheric concentrations of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases as a function of anthropogenic and natural processes, such as industrial emissions, terrestrial carbon fixation, sequestration, land use patterns, etc. Nevertheless, the development of coupled climate-carbon models with demonstrable quantitative skill will require a significant amount of effort and time to understand and validate their behavior at both the process level and as integrated systems. It is important to consider objectively whether the currently proposed strategies to develop and validate earth system models are optimal, or even sufficient, and whether alternative strategies should be pursued. Carbon-climate models are going to be complex, with the carbon cycle strongly interacting with many other components. Off-line process validation will be insufficient. As was found in coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs, feedbacks between model components can amplify small errors and uncertainties in one process to produce large biases in the simulated climate. The persistent tropical western Pacific Ocean ''double ITCZ'' and upper troposphere ''cold pole'' problems are examples. Finding and fixing similar types of problems in coupled carbon-climate models especially will be difficult, given the lack of observations required for diagnosis and validation

  8. Global climate change and international security

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  9. The Effects of Climate Sensitivity and Carbon Cycle Interactions...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Sensitivity and Carbon Cycle Interactions on Mitigation Policy Stringency Citation Details In-Document Search Title: The Effects of Climate Sensitivity and Carbon Cycle ...

  10. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-10-21

    California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history since the winter of 2013-2014. The long duration of drought has stressed statewide water resources and the economy, while fueling an extraordinary increase in wildfires. The effects of global warming on the regional climate include a hotter and drier climate, as well as earlier snowmelt, both of which exacerbate drought conditions. However, connections between a changing climate and how climate oscillations modulate regional water cycle extremes are not well understood. Here we analyze large-ensemble simulations of future climate change in California using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and multiple climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% toward the end of the 21st century. The projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with tighter relation to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), particularly extreme El Niño and La Niña events, which modulates California’s climate not only through its warm and cold phases, but also ENSO’s precursor patterns.

  11. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoon, Jin -Ho; Wang, S. -Y. Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-10-21

    California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history since the winter of 2013-2014. The long duration of drought has stressed statewide water resources and the economy, while fueling an extraordinary increase in wildfires. The effects of global warming on the regional climate include a hotter and drier climate, as well as earlier snowmelt, both of which exacerbate drought conditions. However, connections between a changing climate and how climate oscillations modulate regional water cycle extremes are not well understood. Here we analyze large-ensemble simulations of future climate change in California using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and multiple climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, the projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with tighter relation to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), particularly extreme El Niño and La Niña events, which modulates California’s climate not only through its warm and cold phases, but also ENSO’s precursor patterns.

  12. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yoon, Jin -Ho; Wang, S. -Y. Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-10-21

    California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history since the winter of 2013-2014. The long duration of drought has stressed statewide water resources and the economy, while fueling an extraordinary increase in wildfires. The effects of global warming on the regional climate include a hotter and drier climate, as well as earlier snowmelt, both of which exacerbate drought conditions. However, connections between a changing climate and how climate oscillations modulate regional water cycle extremes are not well understood. Here we analyze large-ensemble simulations of future climate change in California using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1)more » and multiple climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, the projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with tighter relation to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), particularly extreme El Niño and La Niña events, which modulates California’s climate not only through its warm and cold phases, but also ENSO’s precursor patterns.« less

  13. Global climate change and international security.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  14. Financing Innovation to Address Global Climate Change | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Financing Innovation to Address Global Climate Change Financing Innovation to Address Global Climate Change DOE-LPO_Report_Financing-Innovation-Climate-Change.pdf (1.97 MB) More Documents & Publications LPO Financial Performance Report PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE Financing Innovation to Address Global Climate Change Powering New Markets: Utility-scale Photovoltaic Solar

  15. Engineering change in global climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schneider, S.H.

    1996-12-31

    {open_quotes}With increased public focus on global warming and in the wake of the intense heat waves, drought, fires, and super-hurricanes that occurred in 1988 and 1989, interest in geoengineering has surged,{close_quotes} says Stephen H. Schneider, professor of biological science at Stanford University in Stanford, California. One scheme set forth in a National Research Council report proposes using 16-inch naval guns to fire aerosol shells into the stratosphere in hopes of offsetting {open_quotes}the radiative effects of increasing carbon dioxide,{close_quotes} Schneider says. Schneider, however, would prefer that we {open_quotes}seek measures that can cure our global {open_quote}addiction{close_quote} to polluting practices.{close_quotes} Rather than playing God, he says we should {open_quotes}stick to being human and pursue problem - solving methods currently within our grasp.{close_quotes} Such strategies include efforts to promote energy efficiency and reduce our reliance on automobiles.

  16. Global fish production and climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brander, K.M.

    2007-12-11

    Current global fisheries production of {approx}160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but there is low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are giverned by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipiation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the pricipal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

  17. Global Climate Change Alliance Training Workshops on Mainstreaming...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Change Alliance Training Workshops on Mainstreaming Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Global Climate Change Alliance Training Workshop on...

  18. Climate Effects of Global Land Cover Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gibbard, S G; Caldeira, K; Bala, G; Phillips, T; Wickett, M

    2005-08-24

    There are two competing effects of global land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to heating when changing from grass/croplands to forest, and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate in a global land cover change scenario. We have performed coupled land/ocean/atmosphere simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model. We find that replacement of current vegetation by trees on a global basis would lead to a global annual mean warming of 1.6 C, nearly 75% of the warming produced under a doubled CO{sub 2} concentration, while global replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4 C. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming. In particular, high latitude forests probably have a net warming effect on the Earth's climate.

  19. Climate Models from the Joint Global Change Research Institute

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Staff at the Joint Institute develop and use models to simulate the economic and physical impacts of global change policy options. The GCAM, for example, gives analysts insight into how regional and national economies might respond to climate change mitigation policies including carbon taxes, carbon trading, and accelerated deployment of energy technology. Three available models are Phoenix, GCAM, and EPIC. Phoenix is a global, dynamic recursive, computable general equilibrium model that is solved in five-year time steps from 2005 through 2100 and divides the world into twenty-four regions. Each region includes twenty-six industrial sectors. Particular attention is paid to energy production in Phoenix. There are nine electricity-generating technologies (coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal) and four additional energy commodities: crude oil, refined oil products, coal, and natural gas. Phoenix is designed to answer economic questions related to international climate and energy policy and international trade. Phoenix replaces the Second Generation Model (SGM) that was formerly used for general equilibrium analysis at JGCRI. GCAM is the Global Change Assessment Model, a partial equilibrium model of the world with 14 regions. GCAM operates in 5 year time steps from 1990 to 2095 and is designed to examine long-term changes in the coupled energy, agriculture/land-use, and climate system. GCAM includes a 151-region agriculture land-use module and a reduced form carbon cycle and climate module in addition to its incorporation of demographics, resources, energy production and consumption. The model has been used extensively in a number of assessment and modeling activities such as the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and IPCC assessment reports. GCAM is now freely available as a community model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) Model

  20. Climate-Carbon Cycle Interactions Dr. John P. Krasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Modeling of Climate-Carbon Cycle Interactions Dr. John P. Krasting geophysical fluid dynamics Laboratory Wednesday, Jan 23, 2013 - 4:15PM MBG AUDITORIUM Refreshments at 4:00PM The PrinceTon Plasma Physics laboraTory is a U.s. DeParTmenT of energy faciliTy The interactions between Earth's carbon cycle and climate are key to understanding both past and future climate change. NOAA-GFDL developed two coupled climate- carbon cycle models - or Earth System Models (ESMs) - that are able to simulate

  1. The oceanic cycle and global atmospheric budget of carbonyl sulfide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weiss, P.S.

    1994-12-31

    A significant portion of stratospheric air chemistry is influenced by the existence of carbonyl sulfide (COS). This ubiquitous sulfur gas represents a major source of sulfur to the stratosphere where it is converted to sulfuric acid aerosol particles. Stratospheric aerosols are climatically important because they scatter incoming solar radiation back to space and are able to increase the catalytic destruction of ozone through gas phase reactions on particle surfaces. COS is primarily formed at the surface of the earth, in both marine and terrestrial environments, and is strongly linked to natural biological processes. However, many gaps in the understanding of the global COS cycle still exist, which has led to a global atmospheric budget that is out of balance by a factor of two or more, and a lack of understanding of how human activity has affected the cycling of this gas. The goal of this study was to focus on COS in the marine environment by investigating production/destruction mechanisms and recalculating the ocean-atmosphere flux.

  2. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and the global carbon cycle

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Trabalka, J R

    1985-12-01

    This state-of-the-art volume presents discussions on the global cycle of carbon, the dynamic balance among global atmospheric CO2 sources and sinks. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the individual papers. (ACR)

  3. A tropical influence on global climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schneider, E.K.; Kirtman, B.P.; Lindzen, R.S.

    1997-05-15

    A potential influence of tropical sea surface temperature on the global climate response to a doubling of the CO{sub 2} concentration is tested using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab mixed layer ocean. The warming is significantly reduced when sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific cold tongue region between latitudes 2.25{degrees}N and 2.25{degrees}S are held at the control simulation values. Warming of the global mean temperature outside of the cold tongue region is reduced from 2.4{degrees}C in the unconstrained case to 1.9{degrees}C when the sea surface temperature constraint is applied. The decrease in the warming results from a positive net heat flux into the ocean cold tongue region and implicit heat storage in the subsurface ocean, induced by horizontal atmospheric heat fluxes. The reduced surface temperature warming outside of the cold tongue region is due to reduction in the downward longwave radiative flux at the surface, caused in turn by reduced atmospheric temperature and moisture. The global mean surface temperature responds to the heat storage in the ocean as if the global mean radiative forcing due to the doubled CO{sub 2} (approximately 4 W m{sup {minus}2}) was reduced by the value of the global mean heat flux into the ocean. This mechanism also provides a possible explanation for the observed high correlation on interannual timescales between the global mean tropospheric temperature and sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific. The results emphasize the importance of correctly modeling the dynamical processes in the ocean and atmosphere that help determine the sea surface temperature in the equatorial eastern Pacific, in addition to the thermodynamical processes, in projecting global warming. 23 refs., 8 figs.

  4. Disentangling climatic and anthropogenic controls on global terrestrial evapotranspiration trends

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Wei, Yaxing; Thornton, Peter E.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Fu, Wenting; Fisher, Joshua B.; Dickinson, Robert E.; Shem, Willis; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Kaicun; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Tian, Hanqin; Mu, Mingquan; Arain, Altaf; Ciais, Philippe; Cook, Robert; Dai, Yongjiu; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Huang, Suo; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul; King, Anthony W.; Lei, Huimin; Lu, Chaoqun; Michalak, Anna M.; Parazoo, Nicholas; Peng, Changhui; Peng, Shushi; Poulter, Benjamin; Schaefer, Kevin; Jafarov, Elchin; Wang, Weile; Zeng, Ning; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhao, Fang; Zhu, Qiuan; Zhu, Zaichun

    2015-09-08

    Here, we examined natural and anthropogenic controls on terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) changes from 1982-2010 using multiple estimates from remote sensing-based datasets and process-oriented land surface models. A significant increased trend of ET in each hemisphere was consistently revealed by observationally-constrained data and multi-model ensembles that considered historic natural and anthropogenic drivers. The climate impacts were simulated to determine the spatiotemporal variations in ET. Globally, rising CO2 ranked second in these models after the predominant climatic influences, and yielded a decreasing trend in canopy transpiration and ET, especially for tropical forests and high-latitude shrub land. Increased nitrogen deposition slightly amplified global ET via enhanced plant growth. Land-use-induced ET responses, albeit with substantial uncertainties across the factorial analysis, were minor globally, but pronounced locally, particularly over regions with intensive land-cover changes. Our study highlights the importance of employing multi-stream ET and ET-component estimates to quantify the strengthening anthropogenic fingerprint in the global hydrologic cycle.

  5. White House Conference on Global Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-11-01

    President Clinton has directed the White House office on Environmental Policy to coordinate an interagency process to develop a plan to fulfill the commitment he made in his Earth Day address on April 21, 1993. This plan will become the cornerstone of the Climate Change Plan that will be completed shortly after the Rio Accord enters into force. The Office on Environmental Policy established the Interagency Climate Change Mitigation Group to draw on the expertise of federal agencies including the National Economic Council; the Council of Economic Advisors; the Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Office of Management and Budget; the National Security Council; the Domestic Policy Council; the Environmental Protection Agency; and the Departments of Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Interior, Treasury, Commerce, and State. Working groups have been established to examine six key policy areas: energy demand, energy supply, joint implementation, methane and other gases, sinks, and transportation. The purpose of the White House Conference on Global Climate Change was to ``tap the real-world experiences`` of diverse participants and seek ideas and information for meeting the President`s goals. During the opening session, senior administration officials defined the challenge ahead and encouraged open and frank conversation about the best possible ways to meet it.

  6. The Effects of Climate Sensitivity and Carbon Cycle Interactions on Mitigation Policy Stringency

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Edmonds, James A.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2015-07-01

    Climate sensitivity and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks interact to determine how global carbon and energy cycles will change in the future. While the science of these connections is well documented, their economic implications are not well understood. Here we examine the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle, the uncertainty in climate outcomes inherent in any given policy target, and the economic implications. We examine three policy scenarios—a no policy “Reference” (REF) scenario, and two policies that limit total radiative forcing—with four climate sensitivities using a coupled integrated assessment model. Like previous work, we find that, within a given scenario, there is a wide range of temperature change and sea level rise depending on the realized climate sensitivity. We expand on this previous work to show that temperature-related feedbacks on the carbon cycle result in more mitigation required as climate sensitivity increases. Thus, achieving a particular radiative forcing target becomes increasingly expensive as climate sensitivity increases.

  7. Regional & Global Climate Modeling (RGCM) Program | U.S. DOE...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    and select coupled systems, such as water resources, critical for the energy mission. ... Regional focus: Analysis of the integrated water cycle as climate changes will be done in ...

  8. Disentangling climatic and anthropogenic controls on global terrestrial evapotranspiration trends

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Wei, Yaxing; Thornton, Peter E.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Fu, Wenting; Fisher, Joshua B.; Dickinson, Robert E.; Shem, Willis; et al

    2015-09-08

    Here, we examined natural and anthropogenic controls on terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) changes from 1982-2010 using multiple estimates from remote sensing-based datasets and process-oriented land surface models. A significant increased trend of ET in each hemisphere was consistently revealed by observationally-constrained data and multi-model ensembles that considered historic natural and anthropogenic drivers. The climate impacts were simulated to determine the spatiotemporal variations in ET. Globally, rising CO2 ranked second in these models after the predominant climatic influences, and yielded a decreasing trend in canopy transpiration and ET, especially for tropical forests and high-latitude shrub land. Increased nitrogen deposition slightly amplified globalmore » ET via enhanced plant growth. Land-use-induced ET responses, albeit with substantial uncertainties across the factorial analysis, were minor globally, but pronounced locally, particularly over regions with intensive land-cover changes. Our study highlights the importance of employing multi-stream ET and ET-component estimates to quantify the strengthening anthropogenic fingerprint in the global hydrologic cycle.« less

  9. Combined Climate and Carbon-Cycle Effects of Large-Scale Deforestation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Wickett, M; Phillips, T J; Lobell, D B; Delire, C; Mirin, A

    2006-10-17

    The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate. However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These are the first such simulations performed using a fully three-dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-scale deforestation has a net cooling influence on Earth's climate, since the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only marginal benefits in temperate regions. While these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate.

  10. Posters Radiation Impacts on Global Climate Models F. Baer, N...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Posters Radiation Impacts on Global Climate Models F. Baer, N. Arsky, and K. Rocque ... Heating Rates Generated from Longwave Radiation Algorithms LWR algorithms calculate ...

  11. Climate Induced Changes in Biogenic Emissions: Global Chemical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Sponsoring Org: USDOE Country of Publication: United States Language: English Subject: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CLIMATIC CHANGE; EMISSION; PLANTS; ANIMALS; GLOBAL ASPECTS; ...

  12. U.S. Global Change Research Program publishes "National Climate...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    U.S. Global Change Research Program publishes "National Climate Assessment" report for United States Home > Groups > OpenEI Community Central Graham7781's picture Submitted by...

  13. Global Climate Change: Risk to Bank Loans | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Risk to Bank Loans Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Global Climate Change: Risk to Bank Loans AgencyCompany Organization: United Nations...

  14. Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector 2002 DEER Conference ...

  15. Stanford- Global Climate and Energy Project | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    :"","visitedicon":"" Hide Map References: Stanford- Global Climate and Energy Project Web Site1 This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. Stanford- Global...

  16. Global climate change crosses state boundaries

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Changnon, S.A.

    1996-12-31

    The hot, dry summer of 1988 brought the specter of global warming a bit too close for comfort. {open_quotes}Scorching heat, not scientific models, attracted media attention,{close_quotes} says Stanley A. Changnon, senior scientist with the Illinois State Water Survey in Champaign, Illinois. Rising temperatures in the late 1980`s prompted individual states to begin to take action to curb greenhouse-gas emissions. A 1990 report by the National Governors Association identified two guiding principles for addressing climate change issues. {open_quotes}First, that energy policy must be at the center of any efforts to control greenhouse-gas emissions. Second, that state can...restrict emissions through state policies related to public utilities, land use, transportation, and even taxation,{close_quotes} Changnon says. Even if concerns for global warming prove to be overblown, states decided to act for broader economic and environmental reasons. Such initiatives not only save money, but they improve air quality and leave the nation more energy independent,{close_quotes} Changnon says.

  17. Global Impacts (Carbon Cycle 2.0)

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gadgil, Ashok [EETD and UC Berkeley

    2011-06-08

    Ashok Gadgil, Faculty Senior Scientist and Acting Director, EETD, also Professor of Environmental Engineering, UC Berkeley, speaks at the Carbon Cycle 2.0 kick-off symposium Feb. 2, 2010. We emit more carbon into the atmosphere than natural processes are able to remove - an imbalance with negative consequences. Carbon Cycle 2.0 is a Berkeley Lab initiative to provide the science needed to restore this balance by integrating the Labs diverse research activities and delivering creative solutions toward a carbon-neutral energy future. http://carboncycle2.lbl.gov/

  18. Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models Supercomputers Fuel Global High-Resolution Climate Models Berkeley Lab Researcher Says Climate Science is Entering New Golden Age November 12, 2014 Contact: Julie Chao, jchao@lbl.gov, 510.486.6491 wehnerclimate2 Simulated and observed annual maximum 5 day accumulated precipitation over land points, averaged. Observations are calculated from the period 1979 to 1999. Model results are calculated from the period 1979 to 2005. Not long ago,

  19. Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Challenges in Talks with World Energy Ministers | Department of Energy Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate Challenges in Talks with World Energy Ministers Secretary Chu Stresses Global Cooperation on Energy, Economic and Climate Challenges in Talks with World Energy Ministers March 13, 2009 - 12:00am Addthis Washington, DC - In recent discussions with a broad range of world energy ministers, U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu has stressed the need for global cooperation

  20. Moisture Flux Convergence in Regional and Global Climate Models: Implications for Droughts in the Southwestern United States Under Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gao, Yanhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Salathe, E.; Dominguez, Francina; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-05-10

    The water cycle of the southwestern United States (SW) is dominated by winter storms that maintain a positive annual net precipitation. Analysis of the control and future climate from four pairs of regional and global climate models (RCMs and GCMs) shows that the RCMs simulate a higher fraction of transient eddy moisture fluxes because the hydrodynamic instabilities associated with flow over complex terrain are better resolved. Under global warming, this enables the RCMs to capture the response of transient eddies to increased atmospheric stability that allows more moisture to converge on the windward side of the mountains by blocking. As a result, RCMs simulate enhanced transient eddy moisture convergence in the SW compared to GCMs, although both robustly simulate drying due to enhanced moisture divergence by the divergent mean flow in a warmer climate. This enhanced convergence leads to reduced susceptibility to hydrological change in the RCMs compared to GCMs.

  1. Modeling the role of terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon cycle

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Emanuel, W.R.; Post, W.M.; Shugart, H.H. Jr.

    1980-01-01

    A model for the global biogeochemical cycle of carbon which includes a five-compartment submodel for circulation in terrestrial ecosystems of the world is presented. Although this terrestrial submodel divides carbon into compartments with more functional detail than previous models, the variability in carbon dynamics among ecosystem types and in different climatic zones is not adequately treated. A new model construct which specifically treats this variability by modeling the distribution of ecosystem types as a function of climate on a 0.5/sup 0/ latitude by 0.5/sup 0/ longitude scale of resolution is proposed.

  2. Global Climate Change Assessment Report Shows Nations Not Doing...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Climate Change Assessment Report Shows Nations Not Doing Enough Home > Blogs > Dc's blog Dc's picture Submitted by Dc(266) Contributor 5 November, 2014 - 14:49 The latest...

  3. Clouds and climate: Unraveling a key piece of global warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seinfeld, J.H.

    2000-02-01

    Federal policy decisions relating to mitigation of greenhouse gas and other emissions have the potential to exert an enormous impact on industries in which chemical engineers play a prominent role. Many in these industries keep close watch on the development of scientific understanding associated with predictions of global climate change. The authors review one of the most critical, and most uncertain, pieces of the climate puzzle, the role of aerosols and clouds in the global energy balance.

  4. Advancing Climate Science with Global Research Facilities | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Climate Science with Global Research Facilities Advancing Climate Science with Global Research Facilities April 24, 2014 - 3:23pm Addthis This Gulfstream-1 research plane carries a payload of more than 30 scientific instruments to measure smoke from forest fires and other biomass burns. | Image courtesy of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. This Gulfstream-1 research plane carries a payload of more than 30 scientific instruments to measure smoke from forest fires and other biomass

  5. Global Climate and Energy Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Energy Project Global Climate and Energy Project 2003 DEER Conference Presentation: U.S. Department of Energy FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies Program deer_2003_edwards.pdf (1.06 MB) More Documents & Publications ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education Program (GCEP) PIA, Office of Information Resources Biomass Indirect Liquefaction Presentation Audit Report: IG-0678

  6. Global vegetation model diversity and the risks of climate-driven ecosystem shifts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2013-11-08

    Climate change is modifying global biogeochemical cycles, and is expected to exert increasingly large effects in the future. How these changes will in turn affect and interact with the structure and function of particular ecosystems is unclear, however, both because of scientific uncertainties and the very diversity of global vegetation models in use. Writing in Environmental Research Letters, Warszawski et al. (1) aggregate results from a group of models, across a range of emissions scenarios and climate data, to investigate these risks. Although the models frequently disagree about which specific regions are at risk, they consistently predict a greater chance of ecosystem restructuring with more warming; this risk roughly doubles between 2 and 3 °C increases in global mean temperature. The innovative work of Warszawski et al. represents an important first step towards fully consistent multi-model, multi-scenario assessments of the future risks to global ecosystems.

  7. Global climate change: A strategic issue facing Illinois

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Womeldorff, P.J.

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses global climate change, summarizes activities related to climate change, and identifies possible outcomes of the current debate on the subject. Aspects of climate change related to economic issues are very briefly summarized; it is suggested that the end result will be a change in lifestyle in developed countries. International activities, with an emphasis on the Framework Convention on Climate Change, and U.S. activities are outlined. It is recommended that the minimum action required is to work to understand the issue and prepare for possible action.

  8. Illinois task force on global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Griffin, B.S.

    1996-12-31

    The purpose of this report is to document progress in the areas of national policy development, emissions reduction, research and education, and adaptation, and to identify specific actions that will be undertaken to implement the Illinois state action plan. The task force has been tracking national and international climate change policy, and helping shape national policy agenda. Identification and implementation of cost-effective mitigation measures has been performed for emissions reduction. In the area of research and education, the task force is developing the capacity to measure climate change indicators, maintaining and enhancing Illinois relevant research, and strengthening climate change education. Activities relevant to adaptation to new policy include strengthening water laws and planning for adaptation. 6 figs., 4 tabs.

  9. FactSheetOnGlobalClimateChange.pdf | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    FactSheetOnGlobalClimateChange.pdf FactSheetOnGlobalClimateChange.pdf U (37.81 KB) More Documents & Publications U Twenty In Ten: Strengthening America's Energy Security Climate ...

  10. Response of the regional water cycle to an increase of atmosphere moisture related to global warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Frei, C.; Widmann, M.; Luethi, D.

    1997-11-01

    This study examines the sensitivity of the mid-latitude regional hydrological cycle to an imposed warming. Mesoscale limited-area climate simulations over Europe are performed. The modelling study is complemented with a detailed analysis of the observed precipitation and circulation trends in the same region. It is demonstrated that an increase of the moisture content leads to an enhancement of the model`s water cycle during the synoptically active seasons. The simulations suggest that this mechanism may contribute towards an increase in mean precipitation and more frequency occurrence of heavy precipitation events. Observational analysis results illustrate that the relationship between precipitation and atmospheric moisture seen in the climate simulations constitutes a possible physical mechanism relevant for the interpretation of the observed trends. A key feature of the model results is the pronounced increase in the frequency of strong precipitation events associated with the intensification of the water cycle. This large sensitivity highlights the vulnerability of the precipitation climate with respect to global climate change. 19 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  11. Carbon Cycling and Biosequestration Integrating Biology and Climate Through Systems Science Report from the March 2008 Workshop

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graber, J.; Amthor, J.; Dahlman, R.; Drell, D.; Weatherwax, S.

    2008-12-01

    One of the most daunting challenges facing science in the 21st Century is to predict how Earth's ecosystems will respond to global climate change. The global carbon cycle plays a central role in regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) levels and thus Earth's climate, but our basic understanding of the myriad of tightly interlinked biological processes that drive the global carbon cycle remains limited at best. Whether terrestrial and ocean ecosystems will capture, store, or release carbon is highly dependent on how changing climate conditions affect processes performed by the organisms that form Earth's biosphere. Advancing our knowledge of biological components of the global carbon cycle is thus crucial to predicting potential climate change impacts, assessing the viability of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, and informing relevant policy decisions. Global carbon cycling is dominated by the paired biological processes of photosynthesis and respiration. Photosynthetic plants and microbes of Earth's land-masses and oceans use solar energy to transform atmospheric CO{sub 2} into organic carbon. The majority of this organic carbon is rapidly consumed by plants or microbial decomposers for respiration and returned to the atmosphere as CO{sub 2}. Coupling between the two processes results in a near equilibrium between photosynthesis and respiration at the global scale, but some fraction of organic carbon also remains in stabilized forms such as biomass, soil, and deep ocean sediments. This process, known as carbon biosequestration, temporarily removes carbon from active cycling and has thus far absorbed a substantial fraction of anthropogenic carbon emissions.

  12. Evaluating the Diurnal Cycle of Upper Tropospheric Humidity in Two Different Climate Models Using Satellite Observations

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Kottayil, Ajil; John, Viju; Buehler, Stefan; Mohanakumar, Kesavapillai

    2016-04-13

    The diurnal cycle of upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) is known to be influenced by such processes as convection and the formation of clouds which are parameterized in current global climate models. In this study, we evaluate the performance of two climate models, the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM-5) and the Global Atmosphere 3.0 (GA-3) model in simulating the diurnal cycle of UTH (represented by a combination of sinusoids of 12 and 24 h periods) by comparing with microwave and infrared (IR) measurements (where available). These comparisons were made over two convective land regions in South America and Africa, andmore » over oceanic regions in the Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific for the month of January 2007. We analyzed how the diurnal cycles from IR and microwave instruments differ, and the reason for the differences. Our study suggests that the differences in the diurnal cycles of IR and microwave UTH result from sampling differences due to the presence of clouds. Lastly, as noted by earlier studies, the models exhibit considerable discrepancies in diurnal amplitude and phase relative to observations, and these discrepancies have different magnitudes over land and ocean.« less

  13. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  14. Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Transportation Sector | Department of Energy Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector 2002 DEER Conference Presentation: Joint Global Change Research Institute - Battelle 2002_deer_dooley.pdf (999.14 KB) More Documents & Publications There is no Silver Bullet: Regionalization and Market Fragmentation in Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies EAC Presentation - Roadmap 2050:

  15. USA National Phenology Network: Plant and Animal Life-Cycle Data Related to Climate Change

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Phenology refers to recurring plant and animal life cycle stages, such as leafing and flowering, maturation of agricultural plants, emergence of insects, and migration of birds. It is also the study of these recurring plant and animal life cycle stages, especially their timing and relationships with weather and climate. Phenology affects nearly all aspects of the environment, including the abundance and diversity of organisms, their interactions with one another, their functions in food webs, and their seasonable behavior, and global-scale cycles of water, carbon, and other chemical elements. Phenology records can help us understand plant and animal responses to climate change; it is a key indicator. The USA-NPN brings together citizen scientists, government agencies, non-profit groups, educators, and students of all ages to monitor the impacts of climate change on plants and animals in the United States. The network harnesses the power of people and the Internet to collect and share information, providing researchers with far more data than they could collect alone.[Extracts copied from the USA-NPN home page and from http://www.usanpn.org/about].

  16. Global climate change and the mitigation challenge

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Frank Princiotta

    2009-10-15

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations, very likely the primary cause of the 0.8{sup o}C warming the Earth has experienced since the Industrial Revolution. With industrial activity and population expected to increase for the rest of the century, large increases in greenhouse gas emissions are projected, with substantial global additional warming predicted. This paper examines forces driving CO{sub 2} emissions, a concise sector-by-sector summary of mitigation options, and research and development (R&D) priorities. To constrain warming to below approximately 2.5{sup o}C in 2100, the recent annual 3% CO{sub 2} emission growth rate needs to transform rapidly to an annual decrease rate of from 1 to 3% for decades. Furthermore, the current generation of energy generation and end-use technologies are capable of achieving less than half of the emission reduction needed for such a major mitigation program. New technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate, especially for the key power generation and transportation sectors. Current energy technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) programs fall far short of what is required. 20 refs., 18 figs., 4 tabs.

  17. The economics of long-term global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-09-01

    This report is intended to provide an overview of economic issues and research relevant to possible, long-term global climate change. It is primarily a critical survey, not a statement of Administration or Department policy. This report should serve to indicate that economic analysis of global change is in its infancy few assertions about costs or benefits can be made with confidence. The state of the literature precludes any attempt to produce anything like a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis. Moreover, almost all the quantitative estimates regarding physical and economic effects in this report, as well as many of the qualitative assertions, are controversial. Section I provides background on greenhouse gas emissions and their likely climatic effects and on available policy instruments. Section II considers the costs of living with global change, assuming no substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Section III considers costs of reducing these emissions, though the available literature does not contain estimates of the costs of policies that would, on the assumptions of current climate models, prevent climate change altogether. The individual sections are not entirely compartmentalized, but can be read independently if necessary.

  18. Climate-change effects on soils: Accelerated weathering, soil carbon and elemental cycling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qafoku, Nikolla

    2015-04-01

    Climate change [i.e., high atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (≥400 ppm); increasing air temperatures (2-4°C or greater); significant and/or abrupt changes in daily, seasonal, and inter-annual temperature; changes in the wet/dry cycles; intensive rainfall and/or heavy storms; extended periods of drought; extreme frost; heat waves and increased fire frequency] is and will significantly affect soil properties and fertility, water resources, food quantity and quality, and environmental quality. Biotic processes that consume atmospheric CO2, and create organic carbon (C) that is either reprocessed to CO2 or stored in soils are the subject of active current investigations, with great concern over the influence of climate change. In addition, abiotic C cycling and its influence on the inorganic C pool in soils is a fundamental global process in which acidic atmospheric CO2 participates in the weathering of carbonate and silicate minerals, ultimately delivering bicarbonate and Ca2+ or other cations that precipitate in the form of carbonates in soils or are transported to the rivers, lakes, and oceans. Soil responses to climate change will be complex, and there are many uncertainties and unresolved issues. The objective of the review is to initiate and further stimulate a discussion about some important and challenging aspects of climate-change effects on soils, such as accelerated weathering of soil minerals and resulting C and elemental fluxes in and out of soils, soil/geo-engineering methods used to increase C sequestration in soils, soil organic matter (SOM) protection, transformation and mineralization, and SOM temperature sensitivity. This review reports recent discoveries, identifies key research needs, and highlights opportunities offered by the climate-change effects on soils.

  19. Relative outcomes of climate change mitigation related to global

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    temperature versus sea-level rise | Argonne Leadership Computing Facility Relative outcomes of climate change mitigation related to global temperature versus sea-level rise Authors: Gerald A. Meehl, Aixue Hu, Claudia Tebaldi, Julie M. Arblaster, Warren M. Washington, Haiyan Teng, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Toby Ault, Warren G. Strand & James B. White III There is a common perception that, if human societies make the significant adjustments necessary to substantively cut emissions of

  20. Long-term global nuclear energy and fuel cycle strategies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1997-09-24

    The Global Nuclear Vision Project is examining, using scenario building techniques, a range of long-term nuclear energy futures. The exploration and assessment of optimal nuclear fuel-cycle and material strategies is an essential element of the study. To this end, an established global E{sup 3} (energy/economics/environmental) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed using this multi-regional E{sup 3} model, wherein future demands for nuclear power are projected in price competition with other energy sources under a wide range of long-term demographic (population, workforce size and productivity), economic (price-, population-, and income-determined demand for energy services, price- and population-modified GNP, resource depletion, world-market fossil energy prices), policy (taxes, tariffs, sanctions), and top-level technological (energy intensity and end-use efficiency improvements) drivers. Using the framework provided by the global E{sup 3} model, the impacts of both external and internal drivers are investigated. The ability to connect external and internal drivers through this modeling framework allows the study of impacts and tradeoffs between fossil- versus nuclear-fuel burning, that includes interactions between cost, environmental, proliferation, resource, and policy issues.

  1. Structural Design Feasibility Study for the Global Climate Experiment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lewin,K.F.; Nagy, J.

    2008-12-01

    Neon, Inc. is proposing to establish a Global Change Experiment (GCE) Facility to increase our understanding of how ecological systems differ in their vulnerability to changes in climate and other relevant global change drivers, as well as provide the mechanistic basis for forecasting ecological change in the future. The experimental design was initially envisioned to consist of two complementary components; (A) a multi-factor experiment manipulating CO{sub 2}, temperature and water availability and (B) a water balance experiment. As the design analysis and cost estimates progressed, it became clear that (1) the technical difficulties of obtaining tight temperature control and maintaining elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels within an enclosure were greater than had been expected and (2) the envisioned study would not fit into the expected budget envelope if this was done in a partially or completely enclosed structure. After discussions between NEON management, the GCE science team, and Keith Lewin, NEON, Inc. requested Keith Lewin to expand the scope of this design study to include open-field exposure systems. In order to develop the GCE design to the point where it can be presented within a proposal for funding, a feasibility study of climate manipulation structures must be conducted to determine design approaches and rough cost estimates, and to identify advantages and disadvantages of these approaches including the associated experimental artifacts. NEON, Inc requested this design study in order to develop concepts for the climate manipulation structures to support the NEON Global Climate Experiment. This study summarizes the design concepts considered for constructing and operating the GCE Facility and their associated construction, maintenance and operations costs. Comparisons and comments about experimental artifacts, construction challenges and operational uncertainties are provided to assist in selecting the final facility design. The overall goal

  2. Nitrogen attenuation of terrestrial carbon cycle response to global environmental factors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jain, Atul; Yang, Xiaojuan; Kheshgi, Haroon; Mcguire, David; Post, Wilfred M

    2009-01-01

    Nitrogen cycle dynamics have the capacity to attenuate the magnitude of global terrestrial carbon sinks and sources driven by CO2 fertilization and changes in climate. In this study, two versions of the terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycle components of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) are used to evaluate how variation in nitrogen availability influences terrestrial carbon sinks and sources in response to changes over the 20th century in global environmental factors including atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen inputs, temperature, precipitation and land use. The two versions of ISAM vary in their treatment of nitrogen availability: ISAM-NC has a terrestrial carbon cycle model coupled to a fully dynamic nitrogen cycle while ISAM-C has an identical carbon cycle model but nitrogen availability is always in sufficient supply. Overall, the two versions of the model estimate approximately the same amount of global mean carbon uptake over the 20th century. However, comparisons of results of ISAM-NC relative to ISAM-C reveal that nitrogen dynamics: (1) reduced the 1990s carbon sink associated with increasing atmospheric CO2 by 0.53 PgC yr1 (1 Pg = 1015g), (2) reduced the 1990s carbon source associated with changes in temperature and precipitation of 0.34 PgC yr1 in the 1990s, (3) an enhanced sink associated with nitrogen inputs by 0.26 PgC yr1, and (4) enhanced the 1990s carbon source associated with changes in land use by 0.08 PgC yr1 in the 1990s. These effects of nitrogen limitation influenced the spatial distribution of the estimated exchange of CO2 with greater sink activity in high latitudes associated with climate effects and a smaller sink of CO2 in the southeastern United States caused by N limitation associated with both CO2 fertilization and forest regrowth. These results indicate that the dynamics of nitrogen availability are important to consider in assessing the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of terrestrial carbon sources and

  3. Proceedings of GLOBAL 2013: International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Conference - Nuclear Energy at a Crossroads

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2013-07-01

    The Global conference is a forum for the discussion of the scientific, technical, social and regulatory aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle. Relevant topics include global utilization of nuclear energy, current fuel cycle technologies, advanced reactors, advanced fuel cycles, nuclear nonproliferation and public acceptance.

  4. Biogeophysical effects of CO2-fertilization on global climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Mirin, A; Wickett, M; Delire, C; Phillips, T J

    2006-04-26

    CO{sub 2}-fertilization affects plant growth, which modifies surface physical properties, altering the surface albedo, and fluxes of sensible and latent heat. We investigate how such CO{sub 2}-fertilization effects on vegetation and surface properties would affect the climate system. Using a global three-dimensional climate-carbon model that simulates vegetation dynamics, we compare two multi-century simulations: a ''Control'' simulation with no emissions, and a ''Physiol-noGHG'' simulation where physiological changes occur as a result of prescribed CO{sub 2} emissions, but where CO{sub 2}-induced greenhouse warming is not included. In our simulations, CO{sub 2}-fertilization produces warming; we obtain an annual- and global-mean warming of about 0.65 K (and land-only warming of 1.4 K) after 430 years. This century-scale warming is mostly due to a decreased surface albedo associated with the expansion of the Northern Hemisphere boreal forests. On decadal time scales, the CO{sub 2} uptake by afforestation should produce a cooling effect that exceeds this albedo-based warming; but if the forests remain in place, the CO{sub 2}-enhanced-greenhouse effect would diminish as the ocean equilibrates with the atmosphere, whereas the albedo effect would persist. Thus, on century time scales, there is the prospect for net warming from CO{sub 2}-fertilization of the land biosphere. Further study is needed to confirm and better quantify our results.

  5. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanson, H.P.

    1994-09-01

    This research is ultimately concerned with investigating the hypothesis that changes in surface thermal and hydrological forcing of the North Atlantic, changes that might be expected to accompany CO2-induced global warming, could result in ocean-atmosphere interactions` exerting a positive feedback on the climate system. This report concerns research conducted with funding from the Carbon Dioxide Research Program (now the Global Climate Change Program) of the US Department of Energy via grant no. DE-FG02-90ER61019 during the period 15 July 1990 - 14 July 1994. This was a three-year award, extended to a fourth year (15 July 1993 - 14 July 1994) via a no-cost extension. It is important to emphasize that this award has been renewed for an additional two years (15 July 1993 - 14 July 1995) via grant no. DE-FG03-93ER61646 (with the same title). Because the project was originally envisioned to be a five-year effort, many of the important results and conclusions will be available for the Final Report of that second award. This report therefore concerns mainly preliminary conclusions and a discussion of progress toward understanding the central hypothesis of the research.

  6. THE IMPACT OF THERMAL ENGINEERING RESEARCH ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phelan, Patrick; Abdelaziz, Omar; Otanicar, Todd; Phelan, Bernadette; Prasher, Ravi; Taylor, Robert; Tyagi, Himanshu

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change is recognized by many people around the world as being one of the most pressing issues facing our society today. The thermal engineering research community clearly plays an important role in addressing this critical issue, but what kind of thermal engineering research is, or will be, most impactful? In other words, in what directions should thermal engineering research be targeted in order to derive the greatest benefit with respect to global climate change? To answer this question we consider the potential reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, coupled with potential economic impacts, resulting from thermal engineering research. Here a new model framework is introduced that allows a technological, sector-by-sector analysis of GHG emissions avoidance. For each sector, we consider the maximum reduction in CO2 emissions due to such research, and the cost effectiveness of the new efficient technologies. The results are normalized on a country-by-country basis, where we consider the USA, the European Union, China, India, and Australia as representative countries or regions. Among energy supply-side technologies, improvements in coal-burning power generation are seen as having the most beneficial CO2 and economic impacts. The one demand-side technology considered, residential space cooling, offers positive but limited impacts. The proposed framework can be extended to include additional technologies and impacts, such as water consumption.

  7. U.S. Global Climate Change program | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    U.S. Global Climate Change program Home Graham7781's picture Submitted by Graham7781(2017) Super contributor 18 January, 2013 - 15:46 U.S. Global Change Research Program publishes...

  8. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and the Global Carbon Cycle: The Key Uncertainties

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Peng, T. H.; Post, W. M.; DeAngelis, D. L.; Dale, V. H.; Farrell, M. P.

    1987-12-01

    The biogeochemical cycling of carbon between its sources and sinks determines the rate of increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations. The observed increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} content is less than the estimated release from fossil fuel consumption and deforestation. This discrepancy can be explained by interactions between the atmosphere and other global carbon reservoirs such as the oceans, and the terrestrial biosphere including soils. Undoubtedly, the oceans have been the most important sinks for CO{sub 2} produced by man. But, the physical, chemical, and biological processes of oceans are complex and, therefore, credible estimates of CO{sub 2} uptake can probably only come from mathematical models. Unfortunately, one- and two-dimensional ocean models do not allow for enough CO{sub 2} uptake to accurately account for known releases. Thus, they produce higher concentrations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} than was historically the case. More complex three-dimensional models, while currently being developed, may make better use of existing tracer data than do one- and two-dimensional models and will also incorporate climate feedback effects to provide a more realistic view of ocean dynamics and CO{sub 2} fluxes. The instability of current models to estimate accurately oceanic uptake of CO{sub 2} creates one of the key uncertainties in predictions of atmospheric CO{sub 2} increases and climate responses over the next 100 to 200 years.

  9. Marine methane cycle simulations for the period of early global warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elliott, S.; Maltrud, M.; Reagan, M.T.; Moridis, G.J.; Cameron-Smith, P.J.

    2011-01-02

    Geochemical environments, fates, and effects are modeled for methane released into seawater by the decomposition of climate-sensitive clathrates. A contemporary global background cycle is first constructed, within the framework of the Parallel Ocean Program. Input from organics in the upper thermocline is related to oxygen levels, and microbial consumption is parameterized from available rate measurements. Seepage into bottom layers is then superimposed, representing typical seabed fluid flow. The resulting CH{sub 4} distribution is validated against surface saturation ratios, vertical sections, and slope plume studies. Injections of clathrate-derived methane are explored by distributing a small number of point sources around the Arctic continental shelf, where stocks are extensive and susceptible to instability during the first few decades of global warming. Isolated bottom cells are assigned dissolved gas fluxes from porous-media simulation. Given the present bulk removal pattern, methane does not penetrate far from emission sites. Accumulated effects, however, spread to the regional scale following the modeled current system. Both hypoxification and acidification are documented. Sensitivity studies illustrate a potential for material restrictions to broaden the perturbations, since methanotrophic consumers require nutrients and trace metals. When such factors are considered, methane buildup within the Arctic basin is enhanced. However, freshened polar surface waters act as a barrier to atmospheric transfer, diverting products into the deep return flow. Uncertainties in the logic and calculations are enumerated including those inherent in high-latitude clathrate abundance, buoyant effluent rise through the column, representation of the general circulation, and bacterial growth kinetics.

  10. Carbon Cycle 2.0: Ashok Gadgil: global impact

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Ashok Gadgi

    2010-09-01

    Ashok Gadgil speaks at the Carbon Cycle 2.0 kick-off symposium Feb. 2, 2010. We emit more carbon into the atmosphere than natural processes are able to remove - an imbalance with negative consequences. Carbon Cycle 2.0 is a Berkeley Lab initiative to provide the science needed to restore this balance by integrating the Labs diverse research activities and delivering creative solutions toward a carbon-neutral energy future. http://carboncycle2.lbl.gov/

  11. International potential of IGCC technology for use in reducing global warming and climate change emissions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lau, F.S.

    1996-12-31

    High efficiency advanced coal-based technologies such as Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) that can assist in reducing CO{sub 2} emissions which contribute to Global Warming and Climate Change are becoming commercially available. U-GAS is an advanced gasification technology that can be used in many applications to convert coal in a high efficiency manner that will reduce the total amount of CO{sub 2} produced by requiring less coal-based fuel per unit of energy output. This paper will focus on the status of the installation and performance of the IGT U-GAS gasifiers which were installed at the Shanghai Cooking and Chemical Plant General located in Shanghai, China. Its use in future IGCC project for the production of power and the benefits of IGCC in reducing CO{sub 2} emissions through its high efficiency operation will be discussed.

  12. Climate Mitigation Policy Implications for Global Irrigation Water Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Wise, Marshall A.

    2013-08-22

    Energy, water and land are scarce resources, critical to humans. Developments in each affect the availability and cost of the others, and consequently human prosperity. Measures to limit greenhouse gas concentrations will inevitably exact dramatic changes on energy and land systems and in turn alter the character, magnitude and geographic distribution of human claims on water resources. We employ the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model to explore the interactions of energy, land and water systems in the context of alternative policies to limit climate change to three alternative levels: 2.5 Wm-2 (445 ppm CO2-e), 3.5 Wm-2 (535 ppm CO2-e) and 4.5 Wm-2 (645 ppm CO2-e). We explore the effects of alternative land-use emissions mitigation policy options—one which values terrestrial carbon emissions equally with fossil fuel and industrial emissions, and an alternative which places no penalty on land-use change emissions. We find that increasing populations and economic growth could be anticipated to lead to increased demand for water for agricultural systems (+200%), even in the absence of climate change. In general policies to mitigate climate change will increase agricultural demands for water, regardless of whether or not terrestrial carbon is valued or not. Burgeoning demands for water are driven by the demand for bioenergy in response to emissions mitigation policies. We also find that the policy matters. Increases in the demand for water when terrestrial carbon emissions go un-prices are vastly larger than when terrestrial system carbon emissions are prices at the same rate as fossil fuel and industrial emissions. Our estimates for increased water demands when terrestrial carbon systems go un-priced are larger than earlier studies. We find that the deployment of improved irrigation delivery systems could mitigate some of the increase in water demands, but cannot reverse the increases in water demands when terrestrial carbon

  13. ARM - What is the ARM Climate Research Facility Doing About Global Warming?

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    WarmingWhat is the ARM Climate Research Facility Doing About Global Warming? Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans What is the ARM Climate Research Facility Doing About Global Warming? Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) scientists are studying the effects of clouds on weather

  14. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  15. Intercomparison of the Cloud Water Phase among Global Climate Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Komurcu, Muge; Storelvmo, Trude; Tan, Ivy; Lohmann, U.; Yun, Yuxing; Penner, Joyce E.; Wang, Yong; Liu, Xiaohong; Takemura, T.

    2014-03-27

    Mixed-phase clouds (clouds that consist of both cloud droplets and ice crystals) are frequently present in the Earths atmosphere and influence the Earths energy budget through their radiative properties, which are highly dependent on the cloud water phase. In this study, the phase partitioning of cloud water is compared among six global climate models (GCMs) and with Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization retrievals. It is found that the GCMs predict vastly different distributions of cloud phase for a given temperature, and none of them are capable of reproducing the spatial distribution or magnitude of the observed phase partitioning. While some GCMs produced liquid water paths comparable to satellite observations, they all failed to preserve sufficient liquid water at mixed-phase cloud temperatures. Our results suggest that validating GCMs using only the vertically integrated water contents could lead to amplified differences in cloud radiative feedback. The sensitivity of the simulated cloud phase in GCMs to the choice of heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization is also investigated. The response to a change in ice nucleation is quite different for each GCM, and the implementation of the same ice nucleation parameterization in all models does not reduce the spread in simulated phase among GCMs. The results suggest that processes subsequent to ice nucleation are at least as important in determining phase and should be the focus of future studies aimed at understanding and reducing differences among the models.

  16. The Impact of Global Warming on the Carbon Cycle of Arctic Permafrost...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Technical Report: The Impact of Global Warming on the Carbon Cycle of Arctic Permafrost: An Experimental and Field Based Study Citation Details In-Document Search Title: The Impact...

  17. A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Schwarber, Adria; Link, Robert P.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2015-04-01

    Simple climate models play an integral role in the policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector v1.0, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global-scale earth system processes. Hector has a three-part main carbon cycle: a one-pool atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model's terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production and respiration fluxes, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector actively solves the inorganicmore » carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air–sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO2], radiative forcing, and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with equivalent rates of change of key variables over time compared to current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Hector's flexibility, open-source nature, and modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.« less

  18. A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Schwarber, Adria; Link, Robert P.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2015-04-01

    Simple climate models play an integral role in the policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector v1.0, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global-scale earth system processes. Hector has a three-part main carbon cycle: a one-pool atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model's terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production and respiration fluxes, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector actively solves the inorganic carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air–sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO2], radiative forcing, and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with equivalent rates of change of key variables over time compared to current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Hector's flexibility, open-source nature, and modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.

  19. Global Framework for Climate Risk Exposure | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    October 2006. Investors require this information in order to analyze a company's business risks and opportunities resulting from climate change, as well as the company's...

  20. Environmental Justice: Made-for-Television—Climate Change: A Global Reality

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy was invited to be a panelist for a made-for-television educational program in Columbia, South Carolina, titled Climate Change: A Global Reality. DOE also co-sponsored...

  1. Impact of Heavy Duty Vehicle Emissions Reductions on Global Climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2010-08-01

    The impact of a specified set of emissions reductions from heavy duty vehicles on climate change is calculated using the MAGICC 5.3 climate model. The integrated impact of the following emissions changes are considered: CO2, CH4, N2O, VOC, NOx, and SO2. This brief summarizes the assumptions and methods used for this calculation.

  2. National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment Energy and Climate Change

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment: Energy and Climate Change will develop and advance partnerships that focus on transitioning the world to a new "low carbon" and "climate resilient" energy system. It will emphasize putting ideas into action - moving forward on policy and practice.

  3. U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity and the Global Climate Change Initiative (released in AEO2005)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2005-01-01

    On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administrations Global Climate Change Initiative. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas intensity by 18% over the 2002 to 2012 time frame. For the purposes of the initiative, greenhouse gas intensity is defined as the ratio of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to economic output.

  4. U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity and the Global Climate Change Initiative (released in AEO2006)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2006-01-01

    On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administrations Global Climate Change Initiative. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity-defined as the ratio of total U.S. GHG emissions to economic output-by 18% over the 2002 to 2012 time frame.

  5. Integrating Natural Gas Hydrates in the Global Carbon Cycle

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    David Archer; Bruce Buffett

    2011-12-31

    We produced a two-dimensional geological time- and basin-scale model of the sedimentary margin in passive and active settings, for the simulation of the deep sedimentary methane cycle including hydrate formation. Simulation of geochemical data required development of parameterizations for bubble transport in the sediment column, and for the impact of the heterogeneity in the sediment pore fluid flow field, which represent new directions in modeling methane hydrates. The model is somewhat less sensitive to changes in ocean temperature than our previous 1-D model, due to the different methane transport mechanisms in the two codes (pore fluid flow vs. bubble migration). The model is very sensitive to reasonable changes in organic carbon deposition through geologic time, and to details of how the bubbles migrate, in particular how efficiently they are trapped as they rise through undersaturated or oxidizing chemical conditions and the hydrate stability zone. The active margin configuration reproduces the elevated hydrate saturations observed in accretionary wedges such as the Cascadia Margin, but predicts a decrease in the methane inventory per meter of coastline relative to a comparable passive margin case, and a decrease in the hydrate inventory with an increase in the plate subduction rate.

  6. Zooming in: From global to regional climate models | Argonne...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    to explore climate changes that occur on a diurnal scale, such as thunderstorms or urban heat islands. With Mira, approximately 1 million core-hours are needed to run a one-year...

  7. Formulating Energy Policies Related to Fossil Fuel Use: Critical Uncertainties in the Global Carbon Cycle

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Post, W. M.; Dale, V. H.; DeAngelis, D. L.; Mann, L. K.; Mulholland, P. J.; O`Neill, R. V.; Peng, T. -H.; Farrell, M. P.

    1990-02-01

    The global carbon cycle is the dynamic interaction among the earth's carbon sources and sinks. Four reservoirs can be identified, including the atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere, oceans, and sediments. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is determined by characteristics of carbon fluxes among major reservoirs of the global carbon cycle. The objective of this paper is to document the knowns, and unknowns and uncertainties associated with key questions that if answered will increase the understanding of the portion of past, present, and future atmospheric CO{sub 2} attributable to fossil fuel burning. Documented atmospheric increases in CO{sub 2} levels are thought to result primarily from fossil fuel use and, perhaps, deforestation. However, the observed atmospheric CO{sub 2} increase is less than expected from current understanding of the global carbon cycle because of poorly understood interactions among the major carbon reservoirs.

  8. Global Climate Change Response Program: Potential regional impacts of global warming on precipitation in the western United States. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leverson, V.

    1997-01-01

    This study was designed to build upon a previous Global Climate Change Response Program investigation in which an initial `first guess` climate change scenario was derived for the Western United States. Using the scenario`s hypothesized northward shift in the mean wintertime storm track, historical upper-air patterns in the atmosphere were searched to identify winter months (December, January, or February) that would serve as appropriate global warming analogues (GWA). Contour charts were generated of four geopotential height parameters. Specific pattern configurations of the four parameters were identified that reflected the altered storm track pattern, and guidelines for selecting suitable analogues based on the configurations were developed. Monthly mean precipitation values for the GWA months at three climatological divisions in Western Montana, northern Utah, and east central Arizona were compared with median values for the 1946-89 period to determine if any significant differences existed.

  9. ENERGY INVESTMENTS UNDER CLIMATE POLICY: A COMPARISON OF GLOBAL MODELS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCollum, David; Nagai, Yu; Riahi, Keywan; Marangoni, Giacomo; Calvin, Katherine V.; Pietzcker, Robert; Van Vliet, Jasper; van der Zwaan, Bob

    2013-11-01

    The levels of investment needed to mobilize an energy system transformation and mitigate climate change are not known with certainty. This paper aims to inform the ongoing dialogue and in so doing to guide public policy and strategic corporate decision making. Within the framework of the LIMITS integrated assessment model comparison exercise, we analyze a multi-IAM ensemble of long-term energy and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Our study provides insight into several critical but uncertain areas related to the future investment environment, for example in terms of where capital expenditures may need to flow regionally, into which sectors they might be concentrated, and what policies could be helpful in spurring these financial resources. We find that stringent climate policies consistent with a 2C climate change target would require a considerable upscaling of investments into low-carbon energy and energy efficiency, reaching approximately $45 trillion (range: $30$75 trillion) cumulative between 2010 and 2050, or about $1.1 trillion annually. This represents an increase of some $30 trillion ($10$55 trillion), or $0.8 trillion per year, beyond what investments might otherwise be in a reference scenario that assumes the continuation of present and planned emissions-reducing policies throughout the world. In other words, a substantial "clean-energy investment gap" of some $800 billion/yr exists notably on the same order of magnitude as present-day subsidies for fossil energy and electricity worldwide ($523 billion). Unless the gap is filled rather quickly, the 2C target could potentially become out of reach.

  10. The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page; Zhang, Xuesong; Bandaru, Varaprasad; West, Tristram O.; Wise, Marshall A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-19

    Land use change is a complex response to changing environmental and socioeconomic systems. Historical drivers of land use change include changes in the natural resource availability of a region, changes in economic conditions for production of certain products and changing policies. Most recently, introduction of policy incentives for biofuel production have influenced land use change in the US Midwest, leading to concerns that bioenergy production systems may compete with food production and land conservation. Here we explore how land use may be impacted by future climate mitigation measures by nesting a high resolution agricultural model (EPIC Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) for the US Midwest within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM Global Change Assessment Model). This approach is designed to provide greater spatial resolution and detailed agricultural practice information by focusing on the climate mitigation potential of agriculture and land use in a specific region, while retaining the global economic context necessary to understand the far ranging effects of climate mitigation targets. We find that until the simulated carbon prices are very high, the US Midwest has a comparative advantage in producing traditional food and feed crops over bioenergy crops. Overall, the model responds to multiple pressures by adopting a mix of future responses. We also find that the GCAM model is capable of simulations at multiple spatial scales and agricultural technology resolution, which provides the capability to examine regional response to global policy and economic conditions in the context of climate mitigation.

  11. Global climate change: Mitigation opportunities high efficiency large chiller technology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stanga, M.V.

    1997-12-31

    This paper, comprised of presentation viewgraphs, examines the impact of high efficiency large chiller technology on world electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. Background data are summarized, and sample calculations are presented. Calculations show that presently available high energy efficiency chiller technology has the ability to substantially reduce energy consumption from large chillers. If this technology is widely implemented on a global basis, it could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 65 million tons by 2010.

  12. Impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling in semi-arid and arid ecosystems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Belnap, J.

    1995-09-01

    Effective precipitation is a major factor in determining nutrient pathways in different ecosystems. Soil flora and fauna play a critical role in nutrient cycles of all ecosystems. Temperature, timing, and amounts of precipitation affect population composition, activity levels, biomass, and recovery rates from disturbance. Changes in these variables can result in very different inputs and outputs for different nutrients. As a result, areas with less effective precipitation have very different nutrient cycles than more mesic zones. Climate change, therefore, can profoundly affect the nutrient cycles of ecosystems. Nitrogen cycles may be especially sensitive to changes in temperature and to timing and amounts of precipitation. Rainfall contains varying amounts of nitrogen compounds. Changes in amounts of rainfall will change amounts of nitrogen available to these systems. Because rainfall is limited in semi-arid and regions, these systems tend to be more dependent on microbial populations for nitrogen input. Consequently, understanding the effects of climate change on these organisms is critical in understanding the overall effect on ecosystems.

  13. Posters Cloud Parameterizations in Global Climate Models: The Role of Aerosols

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Posters Cloud Parameterizations in Global Climate Models: The Role of Aerosols J. E. Penner and C. C. Chuang Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore, California Introduction Aerosols influence warm clouds in two ways. First, they determine initial drop size distributions, thereby influencing the albedo of clouds. Second, they determine the lifetime of clouds, thereby possibly changing global cloud cover statistics. At the present time, neither effect of aerosols on clouds is included

  14. Accounting for Global Climate Model Projection Uncertainty in Modern Statistical Downscaling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johannesson, G

    2010-03-17

    Future climate change has emerged as a national and a global security threat. To carry out the needed adaptation and mitigation steps, a quantification of the expected level of climate change is needed, both at the global and the regional scale; in the end, the impact of climate change is felt at the local/regional level. An important part of such climate change assessment is uncertainty quantification. Decision and policy makers are not only interested in 'best guesses' of expected climate change, but rather probabilistic quantification (e.g., Rougier, 2007). For example, consider the following question: What is the probability that the average summer temperature will increase by at least 4 C in region R if global CO{sub 2} emission increases by P% from current levels by time T? It is a simple question, but one that remains very difficult to answer. It is answering these kind of questions that is the focus of this effort. The uncertainty associated with future climate change can be attributed to three major factors: (1) Uncertainty about future emission of green house gasses (GHG). (2) Given a future GHG emission scenario, what is its impact on the global climate? (3) Given a particular evolution of the global climate, what does it mean for a particular location/region? In what follows, we assume a particular GHG emission scenario has been selected. Given the GHG emission scenario, the current batch of the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is used to simulate future climate under this scenario, yielding an ensemble of future climate projections (which reflect, to some degree our uncertainty of being able to simulate future climate give a particular GHG scenario). Due to the coarse-resolution nature of the GCM projections, they need to be spatially downscaled for regional impact assessments. To downscale a given GCM projection, two methods have emerged: dynamical downscaling and statistical (empirical) downscaling (SDS). Dynamic downscaling involves

  15. Microsoft PowerPoint - 6_Rowe-Future Challenges for Global Fuel Cycle Material Accounting Final_Updated.pptx

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Future Challenges for Global Fuel Cycle Material Accounting Nathan Rowe Chris Pickett Oak Ridge National Laboratory Nuclear Materials Management & Safeguards System Users Annual Training Meeting May 20-23, 2013 St. Louis, Missouri 2 Future Challenges for Global Fuel Cycle Material Accounting Introduction * Changing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Activities * Nuclear Security Challenges * How to Respond? - Additional Protocol - State-Level Concept - Continuity of Knowledge * Conclusion 3 Future

  16. Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

    2009-08-01

    Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on a grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.

  17. National Environmental Health Association position on global climate change adopted July 2, 1997

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Radtke, T.; Gist, G.L.; Wittkopf, T.E.

    1997-11-01

    The National Environmental Health Association (NEHA) supports the precept that anthropogenic sources, specifically greenhouse gases, are responsible for a significant portion of the measured change in global climate. Further, NEHA supports the concept of an association between global warming and an increased risk to public health. Reducing the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere will benefit human health. This position paper reviews current information on the status of global climate change with particular emphasis on the implications for environmental and public health. It is intended to be used as a basis from which environmental and public health practitioners and colleagues in related fields can initiate discussions with policy makers at all levels -- local, state, national, and worldwide.

  18. Improved Offshore Wind Resource Assessment in Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arent, D.; Sullivan, P.; Heimiller, D.; Lopez, A.; Eurek, K.; Badger, J.; Jorgensen, H. E.; Kelly, M.; Clarke, L.; Luckow, P.

    2012-10-01

    This paper introduces a technique for digesting geospatial wind-speed data into areally defined -- country-level, in this case -- wind resource supply curves. We combined gridded wind-vector data for ocean areas with bathymetry maps, country exclusive economic zones, wind turbine power curves, and other datasets and relevant parameters to build supply curves that estimate a country's offshore wind resource defined by resource quality, depth, and distance-from-shore. We include a single set of supply curves -- for a particular assumption set -- and study some implications of including it in a global energy model. We also discuss the importance of downscaling gridded wind vector data to capturing the full resource potential, especially over land areas with complex terrain. This paper includes motivation and background for a statistical downscaling methodology to account for terrain effects with a low computational burden. Finally, we use this forum to sketch a framework for building synthetic electric networks to estimate transmission accessibility of renewable resource sites in remote areas.

  19. A Global Climate Model Agent for High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wood, Lynn S.; Daily, Jeffrey A.; Henry, Michael J.; Palmer, Bruce J.; Schuchardt, Karen L.; Dazlich, Donald A.; Heikes, Ross P.; Randall, David

    2015-02-01

    Fine cell granularity in modern climate models can produce terabytes of data in each snapshot, causing significant I/O overhead. To address this issue, a method of reducing the I/O latency of high-resolution climate models by identifying and selectively outputting regions of interest is presented. Working with a Global Cloud Resolving Model and running with up to 10240 processors on a Cray XE6, this method provides significant I/O bandwidth reduction depending on the frequency of writes and size of the region of interest. The implementation challenges of determining global parameters in a strictly core-localized model and properly formatting output files that only contain subsections of the global grid are addressed, as well as the overall bandwidth impact and benefits of the method. The gains in I/O throughput provided by this method allow dual output rates for high-resolution climate models: a low-frequency global snapshot as well as a high-frequency regional snapshot when events of particular interest occur.

  20. Global warming and climate change - predictive models for temperate and tropical regions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Malini, B.H.

    1997-12-31

    Based on the assumption of 4{degree}C increase of global temperature by the turn of 21st century due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases an attempt is made to study the possible variations in different climatic regimes. The predictive climatic water balance model for Hokkaido island of Japan (a temperate zone) indicates the possible occurrence of water deficit for two to three months, which is a unknown phenomenon in this region at present. Similarly, India which represents tropical region also will experience much drier climates with increased water deficit conditions. As a consequence, the thermal region of Hokkaido which at present is mostly Tundra and Micro thermal will change into a Meso thermal category. Similarly, the moisture regime which at present supports per humid (A2, A3 and A4) and Humid (B4) climates can support A1, B4, B3, B2 and B1 climates indicating a shift towards drier side of the climatic spectrum. Further, the predictive modes of both the regions have indicated increased evapotranspiration rates. Although there is not much of change in the overall thermal characteristics of the Indian region the moisture regime indicates a clear shift towards the aridity in the country.

  1. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  2. Carbon dioxide and global climate change: The birth and arrested development of an idea

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mudge, F.B.

    1996-12-31

    G.S. Callendar (1897--1964) is regarded the originator of the modern theory of carbon dioxide and global climate change. However, this paper shows that the theory was developed and became well accepted during the nineteenth century. Carbon dioxide was discovered by Black in 1752. From 1820 to 1890 a steadily growing number of measurements of its atmospheric concentration were made using steadily improving techniques; the average results fell from around 500 ppm in 1820 to about 300 ppm in 1890. By the end of the following decade the greenhouse theory of global climate change seemed widely accepted. However in 1900 and 1901 Aangstroem appeared to demolish the theory when he reported that changes in the carbon dioxide level can have little effect because of the overlap of the water and carbon dioxide spectral bands. At a stroke, all interest in the measurement of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels seemed to disappear, although during the 1920s and 1930s a few workers resumed the work but for reasons unconnected to climate change. Over the next thirty years the writers of authoritative textbooks dismissed the theory of carbon dioxide and climate change as an example of misguided speculation. Then in 1938 Callendar`s first paper appeared, reviving the theory which had lain forgotten for nearly forty years.

  3. Physically-Based Global Downscaling: Climate Change Projections for a Full Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghan, Steven J.; Shippert, Timothy R.

    2006-05-01

    A global atmosphere/land model with an embedded subgrid orography scheme is used to simulate the period 1977-2100 using ocean surface conditions and radiative constituent concentrations for a climate change scenario. Climate variables simulated for multiple elevation classes are mapping according to the high-resolution of topography in ten regions with complex terrain. Analysis of changes in the simulated climate lead to the following conclusions. Changes in precipitation vary widely, with precipitation increasing more with increasing altitude in some region, decreasing more with altitude in others, and changing little in still others. In some regions the sign of the precipitation change depends on surface elevation. Changes in surface air temperature are rather uniform, with at most a two-fold difference between the largest and smallest changes within a region. In most cases the warming increases with altitude. Changes in snow water are highly dependent on altitude. Absolute changes usually increase with altitude, while relative changes decrease. In places where snow accumulates, an artificial upper bound on snow water limits the sensitivity of snow water to climate change considerably. The simulated impact of climate change on regional mean snow water varies widely, with little impact in regions in which the upper bound on snow water is the dominant snow water sink, moderate impact in regions with a mixture of seasonal and permanent snow, and profound impacts on regions with little permanent snow.

  4. Physically-Based Global Downscaling Climate Change Projections for a Full Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghan, Steven J.; Shippert, Timothy R.

    2005-04-15

    A global atmosphere/land model with an embedded subgrid orography scheme is used to simulate the period 1977-2100 using ocean surface conditions and radiative constituent concentrations for a climate change scenario. Climate variables simulated for multiple elevation classes are mapping according to a high-resolution elevation dataset in ten regions with complex terrain. Analysis of changes in the simulated climate leads to the following conclusions. Changes in precipitation vary widely, with precipitation increasing more with increasing altitude in some region, decreasing more with altitude in others, and changing little in still others. In some regions the sign of the precipitation change depends on surface elevation. Changes in surface air temperature are rather uniform, with at most a two-fold difference between the largest and smallest changes within a region; in most cases the warming increases with altitude. Changes in snow water are highly dependent on altitude. Absolute changes usually increase with altitude, while relative changes decrease. In places where snow accumulates, an artificial upper bound on snow water limits the sensitivity of snow water to climate change considerably. The simulated impact of climate change on regional mean snow water varies widely, with little impact in regions in which the upper bound on snow water is the dominant snow water sink, moderate impact in regions with a mixture of seasonal and permanent snow, and profound impacts on regions with little permanent snow.

  5. Agriculture and Climate Change in Global Scenarios: Why Don't the Models Agree

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Gerald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Calvin, Katherine V.; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; Mueller, C.; Reilly, J. M.; Robertson, Richard; Sands, Ronald; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs makes direct use of weather inputs. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes of key variables such as prices, production, and trade. These divergent outcomes arise from differences in model inputs and model specification. The goal of this paper is to review climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By providing common productivity drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes are reduced. All models show higher prices in 2050 because of negative productivity shocks from climate change. The magnitude of the price increases, and the adaptation responses, differ significantly across the various models. Substantial differences exist in the structural parameters affecting demand, area, and yield, and should be a topic for future research.

  6. Assessing the Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Pacific Storm Track Using a Multiscale Global Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan; Molina, Mario J.

    2014-05-13

    Atmospheric aerosols impact weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track using a multi-scale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and pre-industrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by - 2.5 and + 1.3 W m-2, respectively, by emission changes from pre-industrial to present day, and an increased cloud-top height indicates invigorated mid-latitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides for the first time a global perspective of the impacts of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multi-scale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on the global scale.

  7. Use of North American and European air quality networks to evaluate global chemistry-climate modeling of surface ozone

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Schnell, J. L.; Prather, M. J.; Josse, B.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L. W.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Bergmann, D.; Zeng, G.; Plummer, D. A.; Sudo, K.; et al

    2015-04-16

    We test the current generation of global chemistry-climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1° × 1° grid cells, allowing commensurate model-measurement comparison. Models are generally biased high during all hours of the day and in all regions. Most models simulate the shape of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles well, correctly matching the timing of hourly (~ 15:00) and monthly (mid-June) peak surface ozone abundance. The amplitude of these cycles is less successfully matched. The observedmore » summertime diurnal range (~ 25 ppb) is underestimated in all regions by about 7 ppb, and the observed seasonal range (~ 21 ppb) is underestimated by about 5 ppb except in the most polluted regions where it is overestimated by about 5 ppb. The models generally match the pattern of the observed summertime ozone enhancement, but they overestimate its magnitude in most regions. Most models capture the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes, correctly showing that about 80% of individual extreme events occur in large-scale, multi-day episodes of more than 100 grid cells. The observed linear relationship showing increases in ozone by up to 6 ppb for larger-sized episodes is also matched.« less

  8. Numerical evaluation of mechanisms driving Early Jurassic changes in global carbon cycling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beerling, D.J.; Brentnall, S.J.

    2007-03-15

    The Early Jurassic (early Toarcian, ca. 183 Ma) carbon cycle perturbation is characterized by aabout -5 parts per thousand {delta} {sup 13}C excursion in the exogenic carbon reservoirs, a 1000 ppm rise in atmospheric CO{sub 2}, and a 6-7 degrees warming. Two proposed explanations for this presumed global carbon cycle perturbation are the liberation of massive amounts of isotopically light CH4 from (1) Gondwanan coals by heating during the intrusive eruption of the Karoo-Ferrar large igneous province (LIP) or (2) the thermal dissociation of gas hydrates. Carbon cycle modeling indicates that the release of CH4 from Gondwanan coals synchronous with the eruption of the Karoo-Ferrar LIP fails to reproduce the magnitude or timing of the CO{sub 2} and {delta} {sup 13}C excursions. However, sensitivity analyses constrained by a marine cyclostratigraphically dated {delta}{sup 13}C record indicate that both features of geologic record can be explained with the huge input of about 15,340-24,750 Gt C over about 220 k.y., a result possibly pointing to the involvement of hydrothermal vent complexes in the Karoo Basin. The simulated release of > 6000 Gt C from gas hydrates also reproduces aspects of the early Toarcian rock record, but the large mass involved raises fundamental questions about its formation, storage, and release.

  9. Energy and Climate Change: 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy, and the Environment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment: Energy and Climate Change will develop and advance partnerships that focus on transitioning the world to a new ...

  10. Global climate change and international security. Report on a conference held at Argonne National Laboratory, May 8--10, 1991

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, M.

    1991-12-31

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  11. Global Climate Change and the Transportation Sector: An Update on Issues and Mitigation Options

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Geffen, CA; Dooley, JJ; Kim, SH

    2003-08-24

    It is clear from numerous energy/economic modeling exercises that addressing the challenges posed by global climate change will eventually require the active participation of all industrial sectors and all consumers on the planet. Yet, these and similar modeling exercises indicate that large stationary CO2 point sources (e.g., refineries and fossil-fired electric power plants) are often the first targets considered for serious CO2 emissions mitigation. Without participation of all sectors of the global economy, however, the challenges of climate change mitigation will not be met. Because of its operating characteristics, price structure, dependence on virtually one energy source (oil), enormous installed infrastructure, and limited technology alternatives, at least in the near-term, the transportation sector will likely represent a particularly difficult challenge for CO2 emissions mitigation. Our research shows that climate change induced price signals (i.e., putting a price on carbon that is emitted to the atmosphere) are in the near term insufficient to drive fundamental shifts in demand for energy services or to transform the way these services are provided in the transportation sector. We believe that a technological revolution will be necessary to accomplish the significant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. This paper presents an update of ongoing research into a variety of technological options that exist for decarbonizing the transportation sector and the various tradeoffs among them.

  12. Sensitivity of a global climate model to the critical Richardson number in the boundary layer parameterization

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Ning; Liu, Yangang; Gao, Zhiqiu; Li, Dan

    2015-04-27

    The critical bulk Richardson number (Ricr) is an important parameter in planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes used in many climate models. This paper examines the sensitivity of a Global Climate Model, the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model, BCC_AGCM to Ricr. The results show that the simulated global average of PBL height increases nearly linearly with Ricr, with a change of about 114 m for a change of 0.5 in Ricr. The surface sensible (latent) heat flux decreases (increases) as Ricr increases. The influence of Ricr on surface air temperature and specific humidity is not significant. The increasingmore » Ricr may affect the location of the Westerly Belt in the Southern Hemisphere. Further diagnosis reveals that changes in Ricr affect stratiform and convective precipitations differently. Increasing Ricr leads to an increase in the stratiform precipitation but a decrease in the convective precipitation. Significant changes of convective precipitation occur over the inter-tropical convergence zone, while changes of stratiform precipitation mostly appear over arid land such as North Africa and Middle East.« less

  13. Sensitivity of a global climate model to the critical Richardson number in the boundary layer parameterization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Ning; Liu, Yangang; Gao, Zhiqiu; Li, Dan

    2015-04-27

    The critical bulk Richardson number (Ricr) is an important parameter in planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes used in many climate models. This paper examines the sensitivity of a Global Climate Model, the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model, BCC_AGCM to Ricr. The results show that the simulated global average of PBL height increases nearly linearly with Ricr, with a change of about 114 m for a change of 0.5 in Ricr. The surface sensible (latent) heat flux decreases (increases) as Ricr increases. The influence of Ricr on surface air temperature and specific humidity is not significant. The increasing Ricr may affect the location of the Westerly Belt in the Southern Hemisphere. Further diagnosis reveals that changes in Ricr affect stratiform and convective precipitations differently. Increasing Ricr leads to an increase in the stratiform precipitation but a decrease in the convective precipitation. Significant changes of convective precipitation occur over the inter-tropical convergence zone, while changes of stratiform precipitation mostly appear over arid land such as North Africa and Middle East.

  14. On the characteristics of aerosol indirect effect based on dynamic regimes in global climate models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, S.; Wang, M.; Ghan, S. J.; Ding, A.; Wang, H.; Zhang, K.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.; Ferrachat, S.; Takeamura, T.; et al

    2015-09-02

    Aerosol-cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity (?500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strong large-scale ascendmore(?500 ?1) and low clouds (stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus) where the models differ most. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing is also found to differ significantly among different regimes. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing in ascending regimes is as large as that in stratocumulus regimes, which indicates that regimes with strong large-scale ascend are as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. It is further shown that shortwave aerosol indirect forcing over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate (> 0.1 mm d?1) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64 to nearly 100 %). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes than that globally, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.less

  15. Global climate feedbacks: Conclusions and recommendations of the June 1990 BNL workshop

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Manowitz, B.

    1990-08-01

    The issue of global change initiated by increases in the concentrations of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases is a scientific issue with major policy implications. The best means to examine the response of the Earth's climate to prospective perturbations in radiative forcing caused by such changes, and to other industrial activities, is modeling, specifically by means of general circulation models (GCMs) of the Earth's atmosphere and of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. The purpose of this workshop was to identify the feedbacks inherent in the Earth's climate that actually or potentially govern the system's response to perturbations, to identify gaps in knowledge that preclude the accurate representation of these feedbacks in models, and to identify research required to represent these feedbacks accurately in models.

  16. Effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, solar UV radiation, and climate change on biogeochemical cycling: interactions and feedbacks

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Erickson III, David J.; Sulzberger, Barbara; Zepp, Richard G.; Austin, Amy T.

    2014-11-07

    Climate change modulates the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, particularly for carbon cycling, resulting in UV-mediated positive or negative feedbacks on climate. Possible positive feedbacks discussed in this assessment include: (i) enhanced UV-induced mineralisation of above ground litter due to aridification; (ii) enhanced UV-induced mineralisation of photoreactive dissolved organic matter (DOM) in aquatic ecosystems due to changes in continental runoff and ice melting; (iii) reduced efficiency of the biological pump due to UV-induced bleaching of coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in stratified aquatic ecosystems, where CDOM protects phytoplankton from the damaging solarmore » UV-B radiation. Mineralisation of organic matter results in the production and release of CO2, whereas the biological pump is the main biological process for CO2 removal by aquatic ecosystems. This research also assesses the interactive effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on the biogeochemical cycling of aerosols and trace gases other than CO2, as well as of chemical and biological contaminants. Lastly,, interacting effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycles are particularly pronounced at terrestrial-aquatic interfaces.« less

  17. The advanced fuel cycle facility (AFCF) role in the global nuclear energy partnership

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Griffith, Andrew

    2007-07-01

    The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP), launched in February, 2006, proposes to introduce used nuclear fuel recycling in the United States with improved proliferation-resistance and a more effective waste management approach. This program is evaluating ways to close the fuel cycle in a manner that builds on recent laboratory breakthroughs in U.S. national laboratories and draws on international and industry partnerships. Central to moving this advanced fuel recycling technology from the laboratory to commercial implementation is a flexible research, development and demonstration facility, called the Advanced Fuel Cycle Facility (AFCF). The AFCF was introduced as one of three projects under GNEP and will provide the U.S. with the capabilities to evaluate technologies that separate used fuel into reusable material and waste in a proliferation-resistant manner. The separations technology demonstration capability is coupled with a remote transmutation fuel fabrication demonstration capability in an integrated manner that demonstrates advanced safeguard technologies. This paper will discuss the key features of AFCF and its support of the GNEP objectives. (author)

  18. Managing the global commons decision making and conflict resolution in response to climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rayner, S. ); Naegeli, W.; Lund, P. )

    1990-07-01

    A workshop was convened to develop a better understanding of decision-making matters concerning management of the global commons and to resolve conflicts in response to climate change. This workshop report does not provide a narrative of the proceedings. The workshop program is included, as are the abstracts of the papers that were presented. Only the introductory paper on social science research by William Riebsame and the closing summary by Richard Rockwell are reprinted here. This brief report focuses instead on the deliberations of the working groups that developed during the workshop. 4 figs., 1 tab.

  19. Long-term soil warming and Carbon Cycle Feedbacks to the Climate System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melillo, Jerry M.

    2014-04-30

    The primary objective of the proposed research was to quantify and explain the effects of a sustained in situ 5oC soil temperature increase on net carbon (C) storage in a northeastern deciduous forest ecosystem. The research was done at an established soil warming experiment at the Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts – Barre Woods site established in 2001. In the field, a series of plant and soil measurements were made to quantify changes in C storage in the ecosystem and to provide insights into the possible relationships between C-storage changes and nitrogen (N) cycling changes in the warmed plots. Field measurements included: 1) annual woody increment; 2) litterfall; 3) carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux from the soil surface; 4) root biomass and respiration; 5) microbial biomass; and 6) net N mineralization and net nitrification rates. This research was designed to increase our understanding of how global warming will affect the capacity of temperate forest ecosystems to store C. The work explored how soil warming changes the interactions between the C and N cycles, and how these changes affect land-atmosphere feedbacks. This core research question framed the project – What are the effects of a sustained in situ 5oC soil temperature increase on net carbon (C) storage in a northeastern deciduous forest ecosystem? A second critical question was addressed in this research – What are the effects of a sustained in situ 5{degrees}C soil temperature increase on nitrogen (N) cycling in a northeastern deciduous forest ecosystem?

  20. The role of aerosols in cloud drop parameterizations and its applications in global climate models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E.

    1996-04-01

    The characteristics of the cloud drop size distribution near cloud base are initially determined by aerosols that serve as cloud condensation nuclei and the updraft velocity. We have developed parameterizations relating cloud drop number concentration to aerosol number and sulfate mass concentrations and used them in a coupled global aerosol/general circulation model (GCM) to estimate the indirect aerosol forcing. The global aerosol model made use of our detailed emissions inventories for the amount of particulate matter from biomass burning sources and from fossil fuel sources as well as emissions inventories of the gas-phase anthropogenic SO{sub 2}. This work is aimed at validating the coupled model with the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program measurements and assessing the possible magnitude of the aerosol-induced cloud effects on climate.

  1. Arctic Climate Measurements

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable ... Arctic Climate Measurements Global Climate Models Software Sustainable Subsurface ...

  2. Influence of Climate Change Mitigation Technology on Global Demands of Water for Electricity Generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Dooley, James J.; Smith, Steven J.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.

    2013-01-17

    Globally, electricity generation accounts for a large and potentially growing water demand, and as such is an important component to assessments of global and regional water scarcity. However, the current suite—as well as potential future suites—of thermoelectric generation technologies has a very wide range of water demand intensities, spanning two orders of magnitude. As such, the evolution of the generation mix is important for the future water demands of the sector. This study uses GCAM, an integrated assessment model, to analyze the global electric sector’s water demands in three futures of climate change mitigation policy and two technology strategies. We find that despite five- to seven-fold expansion of the electric sector as a whole from 2005 to 2095, global electric sector water withdrawals remain relatively stable, due to the retirement of existing power plants with water-intensive once-through flow cooling systems. In the scenarios examined here, climate policies lead to the large-scale deployment of advanced, low-emissions technologies such as carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), concentrating solar power, and engineered geothermal systems. In particular, we find that the large-scale deployment of CCS technologies does not increase long-term water consumption from hydrocarbon-fueled power generation as compared with a no-policy scenario without CCS. Moreover, in sensitivity scenarios where low-emissions electricity technologies are required to use dry cooling systems, we find that the consequent additional costs and efficiency reductions do not limit the utility of these technologies in achieving cost-effective whole-system emissions mitigation.

  3. Review of economic and energy sector implications of adopting global climate change policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Novak, M.H.

    1997-12-31

    This paper summarizes a number of studies examining potential economic impacts of global climate change policies. Implications for the United States as a whole, the U.S. energy sector, the U.S. economy, businesses and consumers, and world economies are considered. Impact assessments are performed of U.S. carbon emissions, carbon taxes, and carbon restrictions by comparing estimates from various organizations. The following conclusions were made from the economic studies: (1) the economic cost of carbon abatement is expensive; (2) the cost of unilateral action is very expensive with little quantifiable evidence that global emissions are reduced; (3) multilateral actions of developed countries are also very expensive, but there is quantifiable evidence of global emissions reductions; and (4) global actions have only been theoretically addressed. Paralleling these findings, the energy analyses show that the U.S. is technologically unprepared to give up fossil fuels. As a result: (1) carbon is not stabilized without a high tax, (2) stabilization of carbon is elusive, (3) technology is the only long-term answer, and (4) targeted programs may be appropriate to force technology development. 8 tabs.

  4. Global warming implications of facade parameters: A life cycle assessment of residential buildings in Bahrain

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Radhi, Hassan; Sharples, Stephen

    2013-01-15

    On a global scale, the Gulf Corporation Council Countries (GCCC), including Bahrain, are amongst the top countries in terms of carbon dioxide emissions per capita. Building authority in Bahrain has set a target of 40% reduction of electricity consumption and associated CO{sub 2} emissions to be achieved by using facade parameters. This work evaluates how the life cycle CO{sub 2} emissions of buildings are affected by facade parameters. The main focus is placed on direct and indirect CO{sub 2} emissions from three contributors, namely, chemical reactions during production processes (Pco{sub 2}), embodied energy (Eco{sub 2}) and operational energy (OPco{sub 2}). By means of the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology, it has been possible to show that the greatest environmental impact occurs during the operational phase (80-90%). However, embodied CO{sub 2} emissions are an important factor that needs to be brought into the systems used for appraisal of projects, and hence into the design decisions made in developing projects. The assessment shows that masonry blocks are responsible for 70-90% of the total CO{sub 2} emissions of facade construction, mainly due to their physical characteristics. The highest Pco{sub 2} emissions factors are those of window elements, particularly aluminium frames. However, their contribution of CO{sub 2} emissions depends largely on the number and size of windows. Each square metre of glazing is able to increase the total CO{sub 2} emissions by almost 30% when compared with the same areas of opaque walls. The use of autoclaved aerated concrete (AAC) walls reduces the total life cycle CO{sub 2} emissions by almost 5.2% when compared with ordinary walls, while the use of thermal insulation with concrete wall reduces CO{sub 2} emissions by 1.2%. The outcome of this work offers to the building industry a reliable indicator of the environmental impact of residential facade parameters. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Life cycle

  5. Sensitivity studies on the impacts of Tibetan Plateau snowpack pollution on the Asian hydrological cycle and monsoon climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qian, Yun; Flanner, M. G.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Wang, Weiguo

    2011-03-02

    The Tibetan Plateau (TP), the highest and largest plateau in the world, has long been identified to be critical in regulating the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. The snowpack and glaciers over the TP provide fresh water to billions of people in Asian countries, but the TP glaciers have been retreating extensively at a speed faster than any other part of the world. In this study a series of experiments with a global climate model are designed to simulate black carbon (BC) and dust in snow and their radiative forcing and to assess the relative impacts of anthropogenic CO2 and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere and snow, respectively, on the snowpack over the TP, as well as their subsequent impacts on the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. Results show a large BC content in snow over the TP, especially the southern slope, with concentration larger than 100 k/kg. Because of the high aerosol content in snow and large incident solar radiation in the low latitude and high elevation, the TP exhibits the largest surface radiative forcing induced by aerosols (e.g. BC, Dust) in snow compared to other snow-covered regions in the world. The aerosol-induced snow albedo perturbations generate surface radiative forcing of 5-25 W m-2 during spring, with a maximum in April or May. BC-in-snow increases the surface air temperature by around 1.0oC averaged over the TP and reduces snowpack over the TP more than that induced by pre-industrial to present CO2 increase and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere during spring. As a result, runoff increases during late winter and early spring but decreases during late spring and early summer (i.e. a trend toward earlier melt dates). The snowmelt efficacy, defined as the snowpack reduction per unit degree of warming induced by the forcing agent, is 1-4 times larger for BC-in-snow than CO2 increase during April-July, indicating that BC-in-snow more efficiently accelerates snowmelt because the increased net

  6. Impacts of global warming on climate change over East Asia as simulated by 15 GCMs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zong-ci Zhao; Xiaodong Li

    1997-12-31

    About 15 GCMs (GFDL1, GISS, LLNL, MPI, OSU, UKMOL, UKMOH, GCMs90-92, GFDL2, NCAR, OPYC, LSG, HADL, GCMs95) obtained from the IPCC WG 1 1990, 1992 and 1995 reports have been chosen to examine the impacts of global warming, on the climate chance over East Asia. Although the models scenarios of the human activities were different for the different GCMs, the climate change over East Asia (70E-140E, 15N-60N) for tile doubled CO{sub 2} as simulated by about 15 GCMs have been analysed. The Simulations shown that the temperature might increased by about 0.5 - 1.5 C over East Asia, especially in winter and northwestern parts of East Asia. The precipitation might increase in northwestern and northeastern parts of East Asia and decrease in the central part of East Asia. The evaluations and assessments of the GCMs over East Asia have indicated that the GCMs have the abilities to simulate the climate change over East Asia, especially for the temperature and the winter season. There are some uncertainties for the simulations to compare with the observations, especially for tile precipitation and tile summer season.

  7. A Tool for Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP) Based Design of Residential Air Source Heat Pumps

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beshr, Mohamed [University of Maryland, College Park; Aute, Vikrant [University of Maryland, College Park; Abdelaziz, Omar [ORNL; Fricke, Brian A [ORNL; Radermacher, Reinhard [University of Maryland, College Park

    2014-01-01

    A tool for the design of air source heat pumps (ASHP) based on their life cycle climate performance (LCCP) analysis is presented. The LCCP model includes direct and indirect emissions of the ASHP. The annual energy consumption of the ASHP is determined based on AHRI Standard 210/240. The tool can be used as an evaluation tool when the user inputs the required performance data based on the ASHP type selected. In addition, this tool has system design capability where the user inputs the design parameters of the different components of the heat pump and the tool runs the system simulation software to calculate the performance data. Additional features available in the tool include the capability to perform parametric analysis and sensitivity study on the system. The tool has 14 refrigerants, and 47 cities built-in with the option for the user to add more refrigerants, based on NIST REFPROP, and cities, using TMY-3 database. The underlying LCCP calculation framework is open source and can be easily customized for various applications. The tool can be used with any system simulation software, load calculation tool, and weather and emissions data type.

  8. On the characteristics of aerosol indirect effect based on dynamic regimes in global climate models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Shipeng; Wang, Minghuai; Ghan, Steven J.; Ding, Aijun; Wang, Hailong; Zhang, Kai; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, Ulrike; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; Takeamura, Toshihiko; et al

    2016-03-04

    Aerosol–cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity (ω500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strong large-scale ascentmore » (ω500  <  −25 hPa day−1) and low clouds (stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus) where the models differ most. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing is also found to differ significantly among different regimes. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing in ascending regimes is close to that in subsidence regimes, which indicates that regimes with strong large-scale ascent are as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. It is further shown that shortwave aerosol indirect forcing over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate (> 0.1 mm day−1) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64 to nearly 100 %). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes compared to the uncertainty in its global mean values, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.« less

  9. Collaborative Proposal: Transforming How Climate System Models are Used: A Global, Multi-Resolution Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Estep, Donald

    2013-04-15

    Despite the great interest in regional modeling for both weather and climate applications, regional modeling is not yet at the stage that it can be used routinely and effectively for climate modeling of the ocean. The overarching goal of this project is to transform how climate models are used by developing and implementing a robust, efficient, and accurate global approach to regional ocean modeling. To achieve this goal, we will use theoretical and computational means to resolve several basic modeling and algorithmic issues. The first task is to develop techniques for transitioning between parameterized and high-fidelity regional ocean models as the discretization grid transitions from coarse to fine regions. The second task is to develop estimates for the error in scientifically relevant quantities of interest that provide a systematic way to automatically determine where refinement is needed in order to obtain accurate simulations of dynamic and tracer transport in regional ocean models. The third task is to develop efficient, accurate, and robust time-stepping schemes for variable spatial resolution discretizations used in regional ocean models of dynamics and tracer transport. The fourth task is to develop frequency-dependent eddy viscosity finite element and discontinuous Galerkin methods and study their performance and effectiveness for simulation of dynamics and tracer transport in regional ocean models. These four projects share common difficulties and will be approach using a common computational and mathematical toolbox. This is a multidisciplinary project involving faculty and postdocs from Colorado State University, Florida State University, and Penn State University along with scientists from Los Alamos National Laboratory. The completion of the tasks listed within the discussion of the four sub-projects will go a long way towards meeting our goal of developing superior regional ocean models that will transform how climate system models are used.

  10. Use of North American and European air quality networks to evaluate global chemistry–climate modeling of surface ozone

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Schnell, J. L.; Prather, M. J.; Josse, B.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L. W.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Bergmann, D.; Zeng, G.; Plummer, D. A.; Sudo, K.; et al

    2015-09-25

    We test the current generation of global chemistry–climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1° × 1° grid cells, allowing commensurate model–measurement comparison. Models are generally biased high during all hours of the day and in all regions. Most models simulate the shape of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles well, correctly matching the timing of hourly (~ 15:00 local time (LT)) and monthly (mid-June) peak surface ozone abundance. The amplitude of these cycles is less successfullymore » matched. The observed summertime diurnal range (~ 25 ppb) is underestimated in all regions by about 7 ppb, and the observed seasonal range (~ 21 ppb) is underestimated by about 5 ppb except in the most polluted regions, where it is overestimated by about 5 ppb. The models generally match the pattern of the observed summertime ozone enhancement, but they overestimate its magnitude in most regions. Most models capture the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes, correctly showing that about 80 % of individual extreme events occur in large-scale, multi-day episodes of more than 100 grid cells. The models also match the observed linear relationship between episode size and a measure of episode intensity, which shows increases in ozone abundance by up to 6 ppb for larger-sized episodes. We conclude that the skill of the models evaluated here provides confidence in their projections of future surface ozone.« less

  11. Ocean Carbon Cycle Data from the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    The U.S. JGOFS program, a component of the U.S Global Change Research Program, grew out of the recommendations of a National Academy of Sciences workshop in 1984. An ambitious goal was set to understand the controls on the concentrations and fluxes of carbon and associated nutrients in the ocean. A new field of ocean biogeochemistry emerged with an emphasis on quality measurements of carbon system parameters and interdisciplinary field studies of the biological, chemical and physical process which control the ocean carbon cycle. U.S. JGOFS, ended in 2005 with the conclusion of the Synthesis and Modeling Project (SMP). Data are available throughout the U.S. JGOFS web site at http://usjgofs.whoi.edu/ and from the U.S. JGOFS Data System at http://usjgofs.whoi.edu/jg/dir/jgofs/. Major named segments of the project are: Bermuda Atlantic Time Series (BATS) Study, Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT) Study, Equatorial Pacific Process Study, North Atlantic Bloom Experiment (1989), Arabian Sea Process Study, and the Southern Ocean Process Study.

  12. LEDS Global Partnership in Action: Advancing Climate-Resilient Low Emission Development Around the World (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2013-11-01

    Many countries around the globe are designing and implementing low emission development strategies (LEDS). These LEDS seek to achieve social, economic, and environmental development goals while reducing long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increasing resiliency to climate change impacts. The LEDS Global Partnership (LEDS GP) harnesses the collective knowledge and resources of more than 120 countries and international donor and technical organizations to strengthen climate-resilient low emission development efforts around the world.

  13. Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-01-01

    While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.

  14. Towards a Fine-Resolution Global Coupled Climate System for Prediction...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    58 GEOSCIENCES climate, numerical modeling, earth system model, ocean, sea-ice, mesoscale eddies climate, numerical modeling, earth system model, ocean, sea-ice, mesoscale...

  15. Integrated Assessment of Global Water Scarcity over the 21st Century under Multiple Climate Change Mitigation Policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and a global population of 14 billion by 2095, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demand for water exceeds the amount of water availability in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 20% and 27% of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change.

  16. What is the ARM Climate Research Facility: Is Global Warming a Real Bias or a Statistical Anomaly?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Egami, Takeshi; Sisterson, Douglas L.

    2010-03-10

    The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility (ACRF) is a U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research national user facility. With multi-laboratory management of distributed facilities worldwide, the ACRF does not fit the mold of a traditional user facility located at a national laboratory. The ACRF provides the world's most comprehensive 24/7 observational capabilities for obtaining atmospheric data specifically for climate change research. Serving nearly 5,000 registered users from 15 federal and state agencies, 375 universities, and 67 countries, the ACRF Data Archive collects and delivers over 5 terabytes of data per month to its users. The ACRF users provide critical information about cloud formation processes, water vapor, and aerosols, and their influence on radiative transfer in the atmosphere. This information is used to improve global climate model predictions of climate change.

  17. Evaluating Clouds, Aerosols, and their Interactions in Three Global Climate Models using COSP and Satellite Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ban-Weiss, George; Jin, Ling; Bauer, S.; Bennartz, Ralph; Liu, Xiaohong; Zhang, Kai; Ming, Yi; Guo, Huan; Jiang, Jonathan

    2014-09-23

    Accurately representing aerosol-cloud interactions in global climate models is challenging. As parameterizations evolve, it is important to evaluate their performance with appropriate use of observations. In this work we compare aerosols, clouds, and their interactions in three climate models (AM3, CAM5, ModelE) to MODIS satellite observations. Modeled cloud properties were diagnosed using the CFMIP Observations Simulator Package (COSP). Cloud droplet number concentrations (N) were derived using the same algorithm for both satellite-simulated model values and observations. We find that aerosol optical depth tau simulated by models is similar to observations. For N, AM3 and CAM5 capture the observed spatial pattern of higher values in near-coast versus remote ocean regions, though modeled values in general are higher than observed. In contrast, ModelE simulates lower N in most near-coast versus remote regions. Aerosol- cloud interactions were computed as the sensitivity of N to tau for marine liquid clouds off the coasts of South Africa and Eastern Asia where aerosol pollution varies in time. AM3 and CAM5 are in most cases more sensitive than observations, while the sensitivity for ModelE is statistically insignificant. This widely used sensitivity could be subject to misinterpretation due to the confounding influence of meteorology on both aerosols and clouds. A simple framework for assessing the N – tau sensitivity at constant meteorology illustrates that observed sensitivity can change from positive to statistically insignificant when including the confounding influence of relative humidity. Satellite simulated values of N were compared to standard model output and found to be higher with a bias of 83 cm-3.

  18. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

  19. The response of mangroves to projected impacts of global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Twilley, R.R.; Chen, R.H.

    1995-06-01

    A hierarchical classification system for mangroves together with a community-based ecological model (ESA abstract by Chen and Twilley, 1995) were used to asses the response of mangroves to global climate change. The hierarchical classification includes a matrix of the ecological type (riverine, fringe, basin, and dwarf mangroves) and the geomorphologic environmental setting (delta, estuarine, lagoon, carbonate platform systems). The significance of this hierarchical classification, referred to as a eco-geomorphic system, is demonstrated with a summary of the spatial variation in ecosystem function among different coastal settings. Changes in sea level, frequency of frost, and frequency of hurricanes were simulated and results of forest community composition, tree density and dominance, and forest biomass were compared to field sites of known disturbance. For lagoon basin forests, hurricane frequency increase from 28 yrs to 15 yrs had less impact on total biomass than increase in frost from 12 yrs to 8 yrs. Both disturbances changed the community composition of the forests. The patterns of recovery vary among geomorphic types due to nutrient limitation of regrowth.

  20. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory interests and capabilities for research on the ecological effects of global climatic and atmospheric change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Amthor, J.S.; Houpis, J.L.; Kercher, J.R.; Ledebuhr, A.; Miller, N.L.; Penner, J.E.; Robison, W.L.; Taylor, K.E.

    1994-09-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has interests and capabilities in all three types of research that must be conducted in order to understand and predict effects of global atmospheric and climatic (i.e., environmental) changes on ecological systems and their functions (ecosystem function is perhaps most conveniently defined as mass and energy exchange and storage). These three types of research are: (1) manipulative experiments with plants and ecosystems; (2) monitoring of present ecosystem, landscape, and global exchanges and pools of energy, elements, and compounds that play important roles in ecosystem function or the physical climate system, and (3) mechanistic (i.e., hierarchic and explanatory) modeling of plant and ecosystem responses to global environmental change. Specific experimental programs, monitoring plans, and modeling activities related to evaluation of ecological effects of global environmental change that are of interest to, and that can be carried out by LLNL scientists are outlined. Several projects have the distinction of integrating modeling with empirical studies resulting in an Integrated Product (a model or set of models) that DOE or any federal policy maker could use to assess ecological effects. The authors note that any scheme for evaluating ecological effects of atmospheric and climatic change should take into account exceptional or sensitive species, in particular, rare, threatened, or endangered species.

  1. Climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SunShot Grand Challenge: Regional Test Centers Climate HomeTag:Climate Electricity use by water service sector and county. Shown are electricity use by (a) large-scale ...

  2. Global

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Co-Hosts "Climate Risk Forum: Bridging Climate Science and Actuarial Practice" This Fall event was a follow-up to a Climate and Environment Program Area meeting with the California governor's office in July. There, the California Insurance Commissioner, Dave Jones, recognized the value of Sandia's climate-impact modeling and analysis work, led by Stephen Conrad (manager of Sandia's Resilience and Regulatory Effects Dept.), and wanted to connect that [...] By admin|

  3. International impacts of global climate change: Testimony to House Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations, Export Financing and Related Programs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fulkerson, W.; Cushman, R.M.; Marland, G.; Rayner, S.

    1989-02-21

    International impacts of global climate change are those for which the important consequences arise because of national sovereignty. Such impacts could be of two types: (1) migrations across national borders of people, of resources (such as agricultural productivity, or surface water, or natural ecosystems), of effluents, or of patterns of commerce; and (2) changes to the way nations use and manage their resources, particularly fossil fuels and forests, as a consequence of international concern over the global climate. Actions by a few resource-dominant nations may affect the fate of all. These two types of international impacts raise complex equity issues because one nation may perceive itself as gaining at the expense of its neighbors, or it may perceive itself as a victim of the actions of others. 11 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  4. International Impacts of Global Climate Change: Testimony to House Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations, Export Financing and Related Programs

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Fulkerson, W.; Cushman, R. M.; Marland, G.; Rayner, S.

    1989-02-21

    International impacts of global climate change are those for which the important consequences arise because of national sovereignty. Such impacts could be of two types: (1) migrations across national borders of people, of resources (such as agricultural productivity, or surface water, or natural ecosystems), of effluents, or of patterns of commerce; and (2) changes to the way nations use and manage their resources, particularly fossil fuels and forests, as a consequence of international concern over the global climate. Actions by a few resource-dominant nations may affect the fate of all. These two types of international impacts raise complex equity issues because one nation may perceive itself as gaining at the expense of its neighbors, or it may perceive itself as a victim of the actions of others.

  5. Global distribution and climate forcing of marine organic aerosol: 1. Model improvements and evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meskhidze, N.; Xu, J.; Gantt, Brett; Zhang, Yang; Nenes, Athanasios; Ghan, Steven J.; Liu, Xiaohong; Easter, Richard C.; Zaveri, Rahul A.

    2011-11-23

    -salt provides diverse results with increases and decreases in the concentration of CCN over different parts of the ocean. The sign of the CCN change due to the addition of marine organics to seasalt aerosol is determined by the relative significance of the increase in mean modal diameter due to addition of mass, and the decrease in particle hygroscopicity due to compositional changes in marine aerosol. Based on emerging evidence for increased CCN concentration over biologically active surface ocean areas/periods, our study suggests that treatment of sea spray in global climate models (GCMs) as an internal mixture of marine organic aerosols and sea-salt will likely lead to an underestimation in CCN number concentration.

  6. Life Cycle Assessment of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007: Ethanol - Global Warming Potential and Environmental Emissions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Heath, G. A.; Hsu, D. D.; Inman, D.; Aden, A.; Mann, M. K.

    2009-07-01

    The objective of this study is to use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate the global warming potential (GWP), water use, and net energy value (NEV) associated with the EISA-mandated 16 bgy cellulosic biofuels target, which is assumed in this study to be met by cellulosic-based ethanol, and the EISA-mandated 15 bgy conventional corn ethanol target. Specifically, this study compares, on a per-kilometer-driven basis, the GWP, water use, and NEV for the year 2022 for several biomass feedstocks.

  7. Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tavoni, Massimo; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Aboumahboub, Tino; Bowen, Alex; Calvin, Katherine V.; Campiglio, Emanuele; Kober, Tom; Jewell, Jessica; Luderer, Gunnar; Marangoni, Giacomo; McCollum, David; van Sluisveld, Mariesse; Zimmer, Anne; van der Zwaan, Bob

    2014-12-15

    Integrated assessment models can help in quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. This paper reviews scenario results from model intercomparison projects to explore different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to the 2°C target. We provide key information for all the major economies, such as the year of emission peaking, regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. We highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.

  8. Effects of soot-induced snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western United States based on Weather Research and Forecasting chemistry and regional climate simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qian, Yun; Gustafson, William I.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ghan, Steven J.

    2009-02-14

    Radiative forcing induced by soot on snow is a major anthropogenic forcing affecting the global climate. However, it is uncertain how the soot-induced snow albedo perturbation affects regional snowpack and the hydrological cycle. In this study we simulated the deposition of soot aerosol on snow and investigated the resulting impact on snowpack and the surface water budget in the western United States. A yearlong simulation was performed using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) to determine an annual budget of soot deposition, followed by two regional climate simulations using WRF in meteorology-only mode, with and without the soot-induced snow albedo perturbations. The chemistry simulation shows large spatial variability in soot deposition that reflects the localized emissions and the influence of the complex terrain. The soot-induced snow albedo perturbations increase the net solar radiation flux at the surface during late winter to early spring, increase the surface air temperature, reduce snow water equivalent amount, and lead to reduced snow accumulation and less spring snowmelt. These effects are stronger over the central Rockies and southern Alberta, where soot deposition and snowpack overlap the most. The indirect forcing of soot accelerates snowmelt and alters stream flows, including a trend toward earlier melt dates in the western United States. The soot-induced albedo reduction initiates a positive feedback process whereby dirty snow absorbs more solar radiation, heating the surface and warming the air. This warming causes reduced snow depth and fraction, which further reduces the regional surface albedo for the snow covered regions. Our simulations indicate that the change of maximum snow albedo induced by soot on snow contributes to 60% of the net albedo reduction over the central Rockies. Snowpack reduction accounts for the additional 40%.

  9. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-08-25

    In this paper, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumpingmore » scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change

  10. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-08-25

    In this paper, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change impact

  11. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-08-25

    Abstract In this study, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change

  12. How Do We Know that Human Activities Have Influenced Global Climate?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Santer, Benjamin D.

    2007-11-05

    Human activities have significantly altered not only the chemical composition of Earth's atmosphere, but also the climate system. Human influences have led to increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases, decreases in stratospheric ozone, and changes in the atmospheric burdens of sulfate and soot aerosols. All of these atmospheric constituents interact with incoming solar and outgoing terrestrial radiation. Human-induced changes in the concentrations of these constituents modify the natural radiative balance of Earth's atmosphere, and therefore perturb climate. Quantifying the size of the human effect on climate is a difficult statistical problem. 'Fingerprint' methods are typically used for this purpose. These methods involve rigorous statistical comparisons of modeled and observed climate change patterns. Fingerprinting assumes that each individual influence on climate has a unique signature in climate records. The climate fingerprints in response to different forcing factors are typically estimated with computer models, which can be used to perform the controlled experiments that we cannot conduct in the real world. One criticism of the findings of previous scientific assessments is that they have relied heavily on fingerprint studies involving changes in near-surface temperature. Recent fingerprint work, however, has considered a variety of other climate variables, such as ocean heat content, stratospheric temperatures, Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, sea level pressure, atmospheric water vapor, and the height of the tropopause. These studies illustrate that a human-induced climate change signal is identifiable in many different variables and geographic regions, and that the climate system is telling us an internally- and physically-consistent story.

  13. Reducing the Carbon Footprint of Commercial Refrigeration Systems Using Life Cycle Climate Performance Analysis: From System Design to Refrigerant Options

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fricke, Brian A; Abdelaziz, Omar; Vineyard, Edward Allan

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP) analysis is used to estimate lifetime direct and indirect carbon dioxide equivalent gas emissions of various refrigerant options and commercial refrigeration system designs, including the multiplex DX system with various hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants, the HFC/R744 cascade system incorporating a medium-temperature R744 secondary loop, and the transcritical R744 booster system. The results of the LCCP analysis are presented, including the direct and indirect carbon dioxide equivalent emissions for each refrigeration system and refrigerant option. Based on the results of the LCCP analysis, recommendations are given for the selection of low GWP replacement refrigerants for use in existing commercial refrigeration systems, as well as for the selection of commercial refrigeration system designs with low carbon dioxide equivalent emissions, suitable for new installations.

  14. Modelling vegetation dynamics at global scale due to climate changes: Comparison of two approaches

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Belotelov, N.V.; Bogatyrev, B.G.; Lobanov, A.I.

    1996-12-31

    Climate changes will influence vegetation dynamics. One of the ways of forecasting these changes is the creation of mathematical models describing vegetation dynamics. Computer experiments can then be conducted under climate change scenarios. Two main approaches are used to create such models. The first approach is based on a bioclimatic dynamic approach. The second approach is based on modelling the main eco-physiological processes. The bioclimatic dynamic approach consists of hypotheses about vegetation types or biomes, and their interrelationships with climate. In the eco-physiological approach, a detailed description of the processes, such as production, mortality, plants migration and their competition is presented. A number of computer experiments has been conducted for several climatic scenario for Russia and the whole world. A qualitative comparison of the results with the results of an earlier bioclimatic model has been done.

  15. Integrated Assessment of Global Climate Change | U.S. DOE Office...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    ... as found at the energy, water, and land nexus and in connected infrastructure dynamics . ... of natural resources, food, and water, and shifts in global economies, ...

  16. Measurements of carbonyl sulfide in automotive emissions and an assessment of its importance to the global sulfur cycle

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fried, A.; Henry, B. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Ragazzi, R.A.; Merrick, M.; Stokes, J.; Pyzdrowski, T. [Colorado Dept. of Health, Denver, CO (United States); Sams, R. [National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD (United States)

    1992-09-20

    Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) is thought to be the major precursor to the background stratospheric aerosol sulfate layer during nonvolcanic time periods. Long-term perturbations to this layer from increased OCS emissions could significantly influence the Earth`s radiation budget, climate, and ozone levels. The present study was carried out in an effort to determine mass emission rates of OCS from automobiles, a potentially important global source of this gas. Studies were carried out on a variety of gasoline vehicles including those without catalytic converters, vehicles with older oxidation catalysts, and vehicles employing newer three-way catalysts. Preliminary measurements were also carried out on four diesel fuel cars and one medium-duty diesel fuel truck. Measurements of OCS were acquired by tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy, and in most cases, measurements of CO were also acquired. Gasoline vehicles, which included some of the lowest and some of the highest CO emitters on the road today, revealed very high correlation between OCS and CO mass emission rates. The OCS-CO linear regression resulted in a slope of (5.8 {+-} 1.6) x 10{sup {minus}6} (gOCS/gCO) and a correlation coefficient of 0.92. The preliminary diesel fuel measurements resulted in a corresponding slope 34.5 times larger. On the basis of these results the authors calculated a global OCS source strength for gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles of 0.0008 to 0.008 Tg yr{sup {minus}1}. The upper limit is a factor of 100 to 600 times less important than the sum of all OCS sources. In contrast to the global scale, automotive emissions of OCS may be important on a local scale, particularly when attempting to measure background concentration and associated small secular trends. These OCS-CO ratios have been shown to be very useful in helping to delineate automotive sources from other sources. 32 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs.

  17. Global Climate Change: Some Implications, Opportunities, and Challenges for US Forestry

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Marland, G.

    1991-06-01

    It is widely agreed that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth`s atmosphere is increasing, that this increase is a consequence of man`s activities, and that there is significant risk that this will lead to changes in the earth`s climate. The question is now being discussed what, if anything, we should be doing to minimize and/or adapt to changes in climate. Virtually every statement on this matter; from the US Office of Technology Assessment, to the National Academy of Science, to the Nairobi Declaration on Climatic Change, includes some recommendation for planting and protecting forests. In fact, forestry is intimately involved in the climate change debate for several reasons: changing climate patterns will affect existing forests, tropical deforestation is one of the major sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, reforestation projects could remove additional carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and there is renewed interest in wood-based or other renewable fuels to replace fossil fuels. Part of the enthusiasm for forestry-related strategies in a greenhouse context is the perception that forests not only provide greenhouse benefits but also serve other desirable social objectives. This discussion will explore the current range of thinking in this area and try to stimulate additional thinking on the rationality of the forestry-based approaches and the challenges posed for US forestry.

  18. Climate mitigation’s impact on global and regional electric power sector water use in the 21st Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dooley, James J.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan

    2013-08-05

    Over the course of this coming century, global electricity use is expected to grow at least five fold and if stringent greenhouse gas emissions controls are in place the growth could be more than seven fold from current levels. Given that the electric power sector represents the second largest anthropogenic use of water and given growing concerns about the nature and extent of future water scarcity driven by population growth and a changing climate, significant concern has been expressed about the electricity sector’s use of water going forward. In this paper, the authors demonstrate that an often overlooked but absolutely critical issue that needs to be taken into account in discussions about the sustainability of the electric sector’s water use going forward is the tremendous turn over in electricity capital stock that will occur over the course of this century; i.e., in the scenarios examined here more than 80% of global electricity production in the year 2050 is from facilities that have not yet been built. The authors show that because of the large scale changes in the global electricity system, the water withdrawal intensity of electricity production is likely to drop precipitously with the result being relatively constant water withdrawals over the course of the century even in the face of the large growth in electricity usage. The ability to cost effectively reduce the water intensity of power plants with carbon dioxide capture and storage systems in particular is key to constraining overall global water use.

  19. Structural analysis of three global land models on carbon cycle simulations using a traceability framework

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Rafique, R.; Xia, J.; Hararuk, O.; Luo, Y.

    2014-06-27

    Modeled carbon (C) storage capacity is largely determined by the C residence time and net primary productivity (NPP). Extensive research has been done on NPP dynamics but the residence time and their relationships with C storage are much less studied. In this study, we implemented a traceability analysis to understand the modeled C storage and residence time in three land surface models: CSIRO's Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) with 9 C pools, Community Land Model (version 3.5) combined with Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CLM3.5-CASA) with 12 C pools and Community Land Model (version 4) (CLM4) with 26 C pools. The globally averagedmoreC storage and residence time was computed at both individual pool and total ecosystem levels. The spatial distribution of total ecosystem C storage and residence time differ greatly among the three models. The CABLE model showed a closer agreement with measured C storage and residence time in plant and soil pools than CLM3.5-CASA and CLM4. However, CLM3.5-CASA and CLM4 were close to each other in modeled C storage but not with measured data. CABLE stores more C in root whereas CLM3.5-CASA and CLM4 store more C in woody pools, partly due to differential NPP allocation in respective pools. The C residence time in individual C pools is greatly different among models, largely because of different transfer coefficient values among pools. CABLE had higher bulk residence time for soil C pools than the other two models. Overall, the traceability analysis used in this study can help fully characterizes the behavior of complex land models.less

  20. Final scientific report for DOE award title: Improving the Representation of Ice Sedimentation Rates in Global Climate Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mitchell, David L.

    2013-09-05

    It is well known that cirrus clouds play a major role in regulating the earth’s climate, but the details of how this works are just beginning to be understood. This project targeted the main property of cirrus clouds that influence climate processes; the ice fall speed. That is, this project improves the representation of the mass-weighted ice particle fall velocity, Vm, in climate models, used to predict future climate on global and regional scales. Prior to 2007, the dominant sizes of ice particles in cirrus clouds were poorly understood, making it virtually impossible to predict how cirrus clouds interact with sunlight and thermal radiation. Due to several studies investigating the performance of optical probes used to measure the ice particle size distribution (PSD), as well as the remote sensing results from our last ARM project, it is now well established that the anomalously high concentrations of small ice crystals often reported prior to 2007 were measurement artifacts. Advances in the design and data processing of optical probes have greatly reduced these ice artifacts that resulted from the shattering of ice particles on the probe tips and/or inlet tube, and PSD measurements from one of these improved probes (the 2-dimensional Stereo or 2D-S probe) are utilized in this project to parameterize Vm for climate models. Our original plan in the proposal was to parameterize the ice PSD (in terms of temperature and ice water content) and ice particle mass and projected area (in terms of mass- and area-dimensional power laws or m-D/A-D expressions) since these are the microphysical properties that determine Vm, and then proceed to calculate Vm from these parameterized properties. But the 2D-S probe directly measures ice particle projected area and indirectly estimates ice particle mass for each size bin. It soon became apparent that the original plan would introduce more uncertainty in the Vm calculations

  1. Global climate change and maize production in Spain: Risk assessment and impacts of weather on yields

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Feijoo, M.L.; Mestre, F.; Iglesias, A.; Rosenzweig, C.

    1996-12-31

    The study evaluates the potential effect of climate change on maize production in Spain, combining climate models, a crop productivity model, a decision support system and a yield-response model. The study was carried out for two agricultural regions that include the largest areas of Spain where maize is grown as a high input crop. The paper combines the output from a crop model with different techniques of analysis. The scenarios used in this study were generated from the output of two General Circulation Models (GCMs): the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model (GISS) and the Canadian Climate Change Model (CCCM). The study also includes a preliminary evaluation of the potential changes in monetary returns taking into account the possible variability of grain yields and prices, using mean-Gini stochastic dominance (MGSD). A yield response model was estimated using simulated data from the crop model. Weather variables are included. Typically, temperature and precipitation are the only weather variables included in these models. However, solar radiation is another important climate factor for plant growth and development and were included in the yield response model.

  2. Impact of modern climate change on the intercommunication: Global ocean-land (Northern Hemisphere)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lobanova, H.V.; Lobanov, V.A.; Stepanenko, S.R.

    1996-12-31

    Two main temperature gradients define the synoptic and climatic conditions on the earth in general: equator-pole gradient and ocean-land gradient. The analysis of temperature on the basis of new cyclic-different-scales conception has been fulfilled in every important part of the climatic system in the Northern Hemisphere for assessment of their vulnerability to modern climate change. Historical time series of monthly surface temperature have been used for this aim in the points of regular grid over the Northern Hemisphere from 1891 to 1992. The main feature of the temperature in main climatic parts of the earth is a complexity of its spatial structure. New methods of spatial decomposition have been developed for the division of this complex fields structure into characteristics of mean value of the field and index of its non-homogeneity or spatial variation. It has been established, that the temperature gradient between ocean and land is increasing that is characterized of the increasing of an intensity of synoptic processes, their spatial non-homogeneity and more frequent appearance of the extreme synoptic events. The models of intercommunications between coefficients of temperature spatial decomposition over the ocean and land have been developed for two time period and the increasing of the relationships closeness has been established between ocean and land as well as the decrease of main planet gradient: the pole(the Polar ocean)-equator.

  3. Impact of Charge Degradation on the Life Cycle Climate Performance of a Residential Air-Conditioning System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beshr, Mohamed; Aute, Vikrant; Abdelaziz, Omar; Fricke, Brian A; Radermacher, Reinhard

    2014-01-01

    Vapor compression systems continuously leak a small fraction of their refrigerant charge to the environment, whether during operation or servicing. As a result of the slow leak rate occurring during operation, the refrigerant charge decreases until the system is serviced and recharged. This charge degradation, after a certain limit, begins to have a detrimental effect on system capacity, energy consumption, and coefficient of performance (COP). This paper presents a literature review and a summary of previous experimental work on the effect of undercharging or charge degradation of different vapor compression systems, especially those without a receiver. These systems include residential air conditioning and heat pump systems utilizing different components and refrigerants, and water chiller systems. Most of these studies show similar trends for the effect of charge degradation on system performance. However, it is found that although much experimental work exists on the effect of charge degradation on system performance, no correlation or comparison between charge degradation and system performance yet exists. Thus, based on the literature review, three different correlations that characterize the effect of charge on system capacity and energy consumption are developed for different systems as follows: one for air-conditioning systems, one for vapor compression water-to-water chiller systems, and one for heat pumps. These correlations can be implemented in vapor compression cycle simulation tools to obtain a better prediction of the system performance throughout its lifetime. In this paper, these correlations are implemented in an open source tool for life cycle climate performance (LCCP) based design of vapor compression systems. The LCCP of a residential air-source heat pump is evaluated using the tool and the effect of charge degradation on the results is studied. The heat pump is simulated using a validated component-based vapor compression system model and

  4. The role of water vapor feedback in unperturbed climate variability and global warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hall, A.; Manabe, Syukuro

    1999-08-01

    To understand the role of water vapor feedback in unperturbed surface temperature variability, a version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled ocean-atmosphere model is integrated for 1,000 yr in two configurations, one with water vapor feedback and one without. To understand the role of water vapor feedback in global warming, two 500-yr integrations were also performed in which CO{sub 2} was doubled in both model configurations. The final surface global warming in the model with water vapor feedback is 3.38 C, while in the one without it is only 1.05 C. However, the model`s water vapor feedback has a larger impact on surface warming in response to a doubling of CO{sub 2} than it does on internally generated, low-frequency, global-mean surface temperature anomalies. Water vapor feedback`s strength therefore depends on the type of temperature anomaly it affects. Finally, the authors compare the local and global-mean surface temperature time series from both unperturbed variability experiments to the observed record. The experiment without water vapor feedback does not have enough global-scale variability to reproduce the magnitude of the variability in the observed global-mean record, whether or not one removes the warming trend observed over the past century. In contrast, the amount of variability in the experiment with water vapor feedback is comparable to that of the global-mean record, provided the observed warming trend is removed. Thus, the authors are unable to simulate the observed levels of variability without water vapor feedback.

  5. Beyond climate-smart agriculture: toward safe operating spaces for global food systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gulledge, Jay; Neufeldt, Heinrich; Jahn, Margaret M; Lezaks, David P; Meinke, Jan H; Scholes, Robert J

    2013-01-01

    Agriculture is considered to be climate-smart when it contributes to increasing food security, adaptation and mitigation in a sustainable way. This new concept now dominates current discussions in agricultural development because of its capacity to unite the agendas of the agriculture, development and climate change communities under one brand. In this opinion piece authored by scientists from a variety of international agricultural and climate research communities, we argue that the concept needs to be evaluated critically because the relationship between the three dimensions is poorly understood, such that practically any improved agricultural practice can be considered climate-smart. This lack of clarity may have contributed to the broad appeal of the concept. From the understanding that we must hold ourselves accountable to demonstrably better meet human needs in the short and long term within foreseeable local and planetary limits, we develop a conceptualization of climate-smart agriculture as agriculture that can be shown to bring us closer to safe operating spaces for agricultural and food systems across spatial and temporal scales. Improvements in the management of agricultural systems that bring us significantly closer to safe operating spaces will require transformations in governance and use of our natural resources, underpinned by enabling political, social and economic conditions beyond incremental changes. Establishing scientifically credible indicators and metrics of long-term safe operating spaces in the context of a changing climate and growing social-ecological challenges is critical to creating the societal demand and political will required to motivate deep transformations. Answering questions on how the needed transformational change can be achieved will require actively setting and testing hypotheses to refine and characterize our concepts of safer spaces for social-ecological systems across scales. This effort will demand prioritizing key

  6. ARM - Climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Climate Climate refers to the long-term changes in ...

  7. The analysis of climate variability at local and regional scales in the global warming context

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mares, I.; Mares, C.

    1996-12-31

    The time series of the seasonal and annual temperatures and precipitation amounts from two stations with observations for more than 100 years and from one mountain station (data since 1928), in Romania have been analyzed. For the entire territory of Romania, 33 stations have also been studied using EOF components, for the 1950--1993 period. In order to find climate change-points, nonparametric tests Pettitt and Mann-Kendall have been used. Quantification of the significant change-points was made estimating the signal-to-noise ratio. Some of the change-points in the temperature and precipitation fields could be associated with the changes in the geopotential field at 500hPa, represented by EOFs and blocking index calculated for the Atlantic-European region. The comparison with other results obtained from the European stations or from the entire Northern Hemisphere shows several common points, but also some differences in the climate jumps, reflecting the local peculiarities.

  8. Climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2 - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Energy Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy Nuclear

  9. Climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Energy Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy Nuclear

  10. Climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    4 - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Energy Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy Nuclear

  11. Climate

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    5 - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Energy Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy Nuclear

  12. Modeling U.S. Energy Use Changes with Global Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadley, Stanton W; Erickson III, David J; Hernandez Figueroa, Jose L

    2006-09-01

    Using a general circulation model of Earth climate (PCM-IBIS) to drive an energy use model (DD-NEMS), we calculated the energy use changes for each year from 2003-2025 for the nine U.S. Census regions. We used five scenarios: 1) a reference with no change in temperatures from the 1970-2003 average, 2) a gradual 1 F rise in temperature by 2025, 3) a gradual 3 F rise by 2025, 4) a climate simulation with low temperature response to CO2 doubling in the atmosphere, and 5) a climate simulation with a more extreme response. The low-?T scenario had a cumulative reduction in energy of 2.1 Quads but an increase in cost of $14.8 billion. The northern states had reductions in cost over the entire period, but most other regions had increases in costs because increases in cooling costs outweighed reductions in heating and other energy uses. Higher temperature sensitivity resulted in increased warming, especially in the winter months. Because heating needs decreased, total energy requirements declined by a cumulative 4.2 Quads. However, total cost still increased $6.1 billion and carbon emissions still rose as coal-based electricity for cooling needs grew.

  13. Global

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Permalink EC, DHS's S&T Directorate, Federal Emergency Management Agency: SUMMIT Analysis, Capabilities, Facilities, Global, Infrastructure Security, Modeling, Modeling & Analysis, NISAC, Partnership, Research & Capabilities EC, DHS's S&T Directorate, Federal Emergency Management Agency: SUMMIT Natural disasters create emergency situations that must be dealt with quickly and effectively in order to minimize injury and loss of life. Simulating such events before they occur can

  14. Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy: Meeting US global climate change action plan commitments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anderson, A.F.

    1994-12-31

    The subject describes how the US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy will help meet the US goal of returning US greenhouse gas emissions to their 1990 levels by the year 2000. On October 19, 1993, President Clinton and Vice President Gore announced the publication of the Climate Change Action Plan. The DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy has a major role in implementing many of the initiatives contained in the Plan. The paper will outline the initiatives current programs, and demonstrate how once implemented, the strategy will help to stem US greenhouse gas emissions. The paper will also discuss how DOE in implementing it`s Climate Change Action Plan strategy, will work with the EPA to achieve a cost-effective strategy that will stem greenhouse gas emissions through public/private partnerships. Although the focus of this paper will be the connection between current programs and Clinton Administration`s year 2000 goal, it will also discuss a longer-term vision for reducing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases beyond the year 2000.

  15. Global climate change mitigation and sustainable forest management--The challenge of monitoring and verification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makundi, Willy R.

    1997-12-31

    In this paper, sustainable forest management is discussed within the historical and theoretical framework of the sustainable development debate. The various criteria and indicators for sustainable forest management put forth by different institutions are critically explored. Specific types of climate change mitigation policies/projects in the forest sector are identified and examined in the light of the general criteria for sustainable forest management. Areas of compatibility and contradiction between the climate mitigation objectives and the minimum criteria for sustainable forest management are identified and discussed. Emphasis is put on the problems of monitoring and verifying carbon benefits associated with such projects given their impacts on pre-existing policy objectives on sustainable forest management. The implications of such policy interactions on assignment of carbon credits from forest projects under Joint Implementation/Activities Implemented Jointly initiatives are discussed. The paper concludes that a comprehensive monitoring and verification regime must include an impact assessment on the criteria covered under other agreements such as the Biodiversity and/or Desertification Conventions. The actual carbon credit assigned to a specific project should at least take into account the negative impacts on the criteria for sustainable forest management. The value of the impacts and/or the procedure to evaluate them need to be established by interested parties such as the Councils of the respective Conventions.

  16. A global warning for global warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Paepe, R.

    1996-12-31

    The problem of global warming is a complex one not only because it is affecting desert areas such as the Sahel leading to famine disasters of poor rural societies, but because it is an even greater threat to modern well established industrial societies. Global warming is a complex problem of geographical, economical and societal factors together which definitely are biased by local environmental parameters. There is an absolute need to increase the knowledge of such parameters, especially to understand their limits of variance. The greenhouse effect is a global mechanism which means that in changing conditions at one point of the Earth, it will affect all other regions of the globe. Industrial pollution and devastation of the forest are quoted as similar polluting anthropogenic activities in far apart regions of the world with totally different societies and industrial compounds. The other important factor is climatic cyclicity which means that droughts are bound to natural cycles. These natural cycles are numerous as is reflected in the study of geo-proxydata from several sequential geological series on land, ice and deepsea. Each of these cycles reveals a drought cycle which occasionally interfere at the same time. It is believed that the present drought might well be a point of interference between the natural cycles of 2,500 and 1,000 years and the man induced cycle of the last century`s warming up. If the latter is the only cycle involved, man will be able to remediate. If not, global warming will become even more disastrous beyond the 21st century.

  17. Measures used to tackle environmental problems related to global warming and climate change resulting from the use of coal

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoppe, J.A.

    1996-12-31

    Environmental issues continue to play a major role in strategic planning associated with the use of coal for power generation. Problems, such as Acid Rain resulting from SO{sub 2} emissions produced from the sulfur content of coal during coal combustion, have recently cornered the attention of policy makers and planners. More recently the carbon content of coal, which provides for most of the coals heating value, has been identified as the major contributor to the production of CO{sub 2} and other emissions associated with Global Warming and Climate Change. Total world carbon emissions resulting from the burning of fossil fuels were approximately 6 billion metric tons in 1990, of which 44% were from the consumption of oil, 39% from coal, and 17% from natural gas. Assuming no change in current regulations, carbon emissions are anticipated to grow by 1.5% per year, and are predicted to reach more than 8 billion tons by the year 2010. Most of this increase in carbon emissions is expected to come from developing countries in the Asian Pacific Region such as China where coal use dominates the power production industry and accounts for 71% of its total CO{sub 2} emissions. Asian Pacific coal demand is expected to double over the next 15 years accounting for a 46% increase in total primary energy demand, and China currently produces approximately 11% of the world`s global greenhouse gas emissions which is expected to grow to 15% by the year 2010.

  18. Analysis of climate variability at local and regional scales in the global warming context

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mares, I.; Mares, C.

    1996-12-01

    The time series of the seasonal and annual temperatures and precipitation amounts from two stations with observations for more than 100 years and from one mountain station (data since 1928), have been analyzed. For the entire territory of Romania, 33 stations have also been studied using EOFs components, for the 1950--1993 period. In order to find climate change-points, nonparametric tests Pettitt and Mann-Kendall have been used. Quantification of the significant change-points was made estimating the signal-to-noise ratio. Some of the change-points in the temperature and precipitation fields could be associated with the changes in the geopotential field at 500 hPa, represented by EOFs and blocking index calculated for the Atlantic-European region. Results are different, depending on the season and some of these are in accordance with the results obtained for the data defined at the hemispherical level or in certain regions of Europe. Other results reflect local characteristics.

  19. Do Coupled Climate Models Correctly SImulate the Upward Branch of the Deept Ocean Global Conveyor?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sarmiento, Jorge L; Downes, Stephanie; Bianchi, Daniele

    2013-01-17

    The large-scale meridional overturning circulation (MOC) connects the deep ocean, a major reservoir of carbon, to the other components of the climate system and must therefore be accurately represented in Earth System Models. Our project aims to address the specific question of the pathways and mechanisms controlling the upwelling branch of the MOC, a subject of significant disagreement between models and observational syntheses, and among general circulation models. Observations of these pathways are limited, particularly in regions of complex hydrography such as the Southern Ocean. As such, we rely on models to examine theories of the overturning circulation, both physically and biogeochemically. This grant focused on a particular aspect of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) where there is currently significant disagreement between models and observationally based analyses of the MOC, and amongst general circulation models. In particular, the research focused on addressing the following questions: 1. Where does the deep water that sinks in the polar regions rise to the surface? 2. What processes are responsible for this rise? 3. Do state-of-the-art coupled GCMs capture these processes? Our research had three key components: observational synthesis, model development and model analysis. In this final report we outline the key results from these areas of research for the 2007 to 2012 grant period. The research described here was carried out primarily by graduate student, Daniele Bianchi (now a Postdoc at McGill University, Canada), and Postdoc Stephanie Downes (now a Research Fellow at The Australian national University, Australia). Additional support was provided for programmers Jennifer Simeon as well as Rick Slater.

  20. Simulations of the global carbon cycle and anthropogenic CO{sub 2} transient. Final report, September 15, 1993--September 14, 1997

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sarmiento, J.L.; Pacala, S.W.

    1998-06-01

    The primary accomplishment of this research was the development of an ocean biogeochemistry model for the carbon cycle, and the application of this model to studies of anthropogenic CO{sub 2} uptake and the global carbon cycle. The model has been used to study the oceanic uptake that would occur if future atmospheric CO{sub 2} were to be stabilized with the ocean circulation remaining constant. The authors also modeled how oceanic uptake would be affected by changes in ocean circulation that are predicted to occur due to global warming. The research resulted in 21 publications, and an additional 5 papers either in press or in preparation. The accomplishments of this research served as the foundation on which the Carbon Modeling Consortium was built. The CMC is a NOAA funded collaborative program involving principal investigators from various NOAA laboratories and universities. It has the goal of developing techniques to monitor the global carbon cycle on land as well as the ocean, and to predict its future course.

  1. Global Distribution and Climate Forcing of Marine Organic Aerosol - Part 2: Effects on Cloud Properties and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gantt, Brett; Xu, Jun; Meskhidze, N.; Zhang, Yang; Nenes, Athanasios; Ghan, Steven J.; Liu, Xiaohong; Easter, Richard C.; Zaveri, Rahul A.

    2012-07-25

    A series of simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with a 7-mode Modal Aerosol Model were conducted to assess the changes in cloud microphysical properties and radiative forcing resulting from marine organic aerosols. Model simulations show that the anthropogenic aerosol indirect forcing (AIF) predicted by CAM5 is decreased in absolute magnitude by up to 0.09 Wm{sup -2} (7 %) when marine organic aerosols are included. Changes in the AIF from marine organic aerosols are associated with small global increases in low-level incloud droplet number concentration and liquid water path of 1.3 cm{sup -3} (1.5 %) and 0.22 gm{sup -2} (0.5 %), respectively. Areas especially sensitive to changes in cloud properties due to marine organic aerosol include the Southern Ocean, North Pacific Ocean, and North Atlantic Ocean, all of which are characterized by high marine organic emission rates. As climate models are particularly sensitive to the background aerosol concentration, this small but non-negligible change in the AIF due to marine organic aerosols provides a notable link for ocean-ecosystem marine low-level cloud interactions and may be a candidate for consideration in future earth system models.

  2. A Cross-model Comparison of Global Long-term Technology Diffusion under a 2?C Climate Change Control Target

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    van der Zwaan, Bob; Rosler, Hilke; Kober, Tom; Aboumahboub, Tino; Calvin, Katherine V.; Gernaat, David; Marangoni, Giacomo; McCollum, David

    2013-11-01

    We investigate the long-term global energy technology diffusion patterns required to reach a stringent climate change target with a maximum average atmospheric temperature increase of 2C. If the anthropogenic temperature increase is to be limited to 2C, total CO2 emissions have to be reduced massively, so as to reach substantial negative values during the second half of the century. Particularly power sector CO2 emissions should become negative from around 2050 onwards according to most models used for this analysis in order to compensate for GHG emissions in other sectors where abatement is more costly. The annual additional capacity deployment intensity (expressed in GW/yr) for solar and wind energy until 2030 needs to be around that recently observed for coal-based power plants, and will have to be several times higher in the period 20302050. Relatively high agreement exists across models in terms of the aggregated low-carbon energy system cost requirements on the supply side until 2050, which amount to about 50 trillion US$.

  3. ARM - Climate Change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Climate Change A Student's Guide to Global Climate Change ...

  4. Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) Interdisciplinary Science Workshop: Decadal Climate Prediction; Aspen, CO; June 22-28, 2008

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Katzenberger, John

    2010-03-12

    Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10?30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes.

  5. The impact of high-frequency sedimentation cycles on stratigraphic interpretation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Perlmutter, M.A.; Radovich, B.J.; Matthews, M.D.

    1997-01-01

    Global cyclostratigraphy, a methodology that utilizes climate change to evaluate sediment flux, characterizes the impact of sediment cycles on stratigraphy. Climatic succession, sediment yield cycles, and the phase relationship of sediment cycles to eustatic cycles are all determined in the early stages of basin analysis. Sedimentologic information is then used to assist in sequence evaluations. Climatic successions are intrinsically associated with global position (paleogeography) and are not necessarily synchronous with glacioeustatic sea-level cycles. A preliminary evaluation of the effect of climate on sediment supply from modem river systems indicates that sediment yield may vary by well over two orders of magnitude during one climate cycle. Consequently, basins in different climatic belts can have distinctly different volumes and lithologies for systems tracts that have similar base-level changes. The stratigraphic computer program Sedpak was utilized to examine the possible impact of different sedimentation cycles on sequence interpretation and reservoir forecasts. The effect of sedimentation cycles on reservoir distribution in real world sequences is demonstrated with a comparison of the Miocene section of the Surma basin, Bangladesh, and the Plio-Pleistocene section of the Gulf of Mexico. In the Surma basin, reservoirs are most likely to occur in transgressive and highstand systems tracts, while reservoirs in the Gulf of Mexico are more likely in lowstand prograding complexes.

  6. Comparison of the Vertical Velocity Used to Calculate the Cloud Droplet Number Concentration in a Cloud Resolving and a Global Climate Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Comparison of the Vertical Velocity used to Calculate the Cloud Droplet Number Concentration in a Cloud-Resolving and a Global Climate Model H. Guo, J. E. Penner, M. Herzog, and X. Liu Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Michigan Introduction Anthropogenic aerosols are effective cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The availability of CCN affects the initial cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) and droplet size; therefore, cloud optical

  7. 10 MWe power cycle

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    MWe power cycle - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy ...

  8. Identification and preliminary characterization of global water resource issues which may be affected by CO/sub 2/-induced climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Callaway, J.M.; Cohen, M.L.; Currie, J.W.

    1984-04-01

    The objectives were to: (1) identify, characterize, and define existing or projected regional and global water resource management issues which may be affected by CO/sub 2/-induced climate changes; and (2) develop research priorities for acquiring additional information about the potential effects of a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change on the availability and allocation of freshwater supplies. The research was broken into four work elements: (1) identification of water resource management issues on a global and regional basis; (2) identification of a subset of generic CO/sub 2/-related water resource management issues believed to have the highest probability of being affected, beneficially or adversely, by a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change; (3) selection of specific sites for examining the potential effect of a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change on these issues; and (4) conducting detailed case studies at these sites, the results from which will be used to identify future research and data needs in the area of water resources. This report summarizes the research related to the first three work elements. 6 figures, 9 tables.

  9. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering ...

  10. TWO NOVEL PARAMETERS TO EVALUATE THE GLOBAL COMPLEXITY OF THE SUN'S MAGNETIC FIELD AND TRACK THE SOLAR CYCLE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhao, L.; Landi, E.; Gibson, S. E.

    2013-08-20

    Since the unusually prolonged and weak solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 (2008-2010), the sunspot number is smaller and the overall morphology of the Sun's magnetic field is more complicated (i.e., less of a dipole component and more of a tilted current sheet) compared with the same minimum and ascending phases of the previous cycle. Nearly 13 yr after the last solar maximum ({approx}2000), the monthly sunspot number is currently only at half the highest value of the past cycle's maximum, whereas the polar magnetic field of the Sun is reversing (north pole first). These circumstances make it timely to consider alternatives to the sunspot number for tracking the Sun's magnetic cycle and measuring its complexity. In this study, we introduce two novel parameters, the standard deviation (SD) of the latitude of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) and the integrated slope (SL) of the HCS, to evaluate the complexity of the Sun's magnetic field and track the solar cycle. SD and SL are obtained from the magnetic synoptic maps calculated by a potential field source surface model. We find that SD and SL are sensitive to the complexity of the HCS: (1) they have low values when the HCS is flat at solar minimum, and high values when the HCS is highly tilted at solar maximum; (2) they respond to the topology of the HCS differently, as a higher SD value indicates that a larger part of the HCS extends to higher latitude, while a higher SL value implies that the HCS is wavier; (3) they are good indicators of magnetically anomalous cycles. Based on the comparison between SD and SL with the normalized sunspot number in the most recent four solar cycles, we find that in 2011 the solar magnetic field had attained a similar complexity as compared to the previous maxima. In addition, in the ascending phase of cycle 24, SD and SL in the northern hemisphere were on the average much greater than in the southern hemisphere, indicating a more tilted and wavier HCS in the north than

  11. What does the 2C Target Imply for a Global Climate Agreement in 2020? The LIMITS Study on Durban Action Platform Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Tavoni, Massimo; Aboumahboub, Tino; Luderer, Gunnar; Calvin, Katherine V.; DeMaere, Gauthier; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan; Rosler, Hilke; Schaeffer, Michiel; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2013-11-01

    This paper provides a novel and comprehensive model?based assessment of possible outcomes of the Durban Platform negotiations with a focus on emissions reduction requirements, the consistency with the 2C target and global economic impacts. The Durban Action scenarios investigated in the LIMITS studyall assuming the implementation of comprehensive global emission reductions after 2020, but assuming different 2020 emission reduction levels and different long?term stabilization targetsshow that the probability of exceeding the 2C limit increases with stabilization target from below one third for 450?470 ppm to 40?60% for 490?510 ppm in 2100. Global time?averaged economic costs of the Durban Action scenarios are limited across models, and are largely unaffected by the stringency of 2020 pledges. By contrast, the economic impact of delaying action beyond 2030 is much stronger on transitional costs. The main significance of short term action in the period 2010?2030 lies in preparing the ground for steep emissions reductions thereafter by inducing global emissions to peak and decline. The institutional challenges of all scenarios with fragmented near?term climate policy can be expected to be high as reflected in a steep rise of carbon prices and decarbonization rates until 2040. We conclude that an agreement on comprehensive emissions reductions to be implemented from 2020 onwards has particular significance for meeting long term climate policy objectives.

  12. Geoengineering the Earth's Climate

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Google Tech Talks

    2009-09-01

    Emergency preparedness is generally considered to be a good thing, yet there is no plan regarding what we might do should we be faced with a climate emergency. Such an emergency could take the form of a rapid shift in precipitation patterns, a collapse of the great ice sheets, the imminent triggering of strong climate system feedbacks, or perhaps the loss of valuable ecosystems. Over the past decade, we have used climate models to investigate the potential to reverse some of the effects of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by deflecting some incoming sunlight back to space. This would probably be most cost-effectively achieved with the placement of small particles in or above the stratosphere. Our model simulations indicate that such geoengineering approaches could potentially bring our climate closer to the state is was in prior to the introduction of greenhouse gases. This talk will present much of what is known about such geoengineering approaches, and raise a range of issues likely to stimulate lively discussion. Speaker: Ken Caldeira Ken Caldeira is a scientist at the Carnegie Institution Department of Global Ecology and a Professor (by courtesy) at the Stanford University Department of Environmental and Earth System Sciences. Previously, he worked for 12 years in the Energy and Environment Directorate at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (Department of Energy). His research interests include the numerical simulation of Earth's climate, carbon, and biogeochemistry; ocean acidification; climate emergency response systems; evaluating approaches to supplying environmentally-friendly energy services; ocean carbon sequestration; long-term evolution of climate and geochemical cycles; and marine biogeochemical cycles. Caldeira has a B.A. in Philosophy from Rutgers College and an M.S. and Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from New York University.

  13. Climate Leadership Conference

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The annual Climate Leadership Conference convenes a global audience of climate, energy, and sustainability professionals to address climate change through policy, innovation, and business solutions. Now in its fifth year, the 2016 event will host the first U.S. climate conference post-Paris to further accelerate climate solutions and a low-carbon economy.

  14. Long-Term Regional Climate Simulations Driven by Two Global Reanalyses and a GCM for the Western United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai R.; Bian, Xindi; Qian, Yun

    2002-01-01

    To take advantage of recent development in the NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5), an effort has been organized to develop and evaluate an MM5-based community regional climate model. Several modifications such as the implementation of the PNNL subgrid parameterization of orographic precipitation, representation of cloud-radiation interaction, and additional output capabilities have been made to the recently released MM5 Version 3.4. To evaluate the model, several long-term simulations have been performed over the western U.S. These simulations were driven by the NCEP/NCAR and ECMWF reanalyses respectively for 20 and 13 years beginning at 1980. The western U.S. is marked by diverse topographic features and varied climate conditions such as the maritime climate in the coastal area and the semi-arid climate in the southwest. We will present results based on two domain configurations: a nested domain with a fine domain covering the western U.S. at 40 km resolution, and a single domain at 60 km resolution with the subgrid orographic precipitation scheme applied in the western U.S. Analyses are being performed to evaluate the simulations of the averaged climate and interannual variability and examine the model sensitivity to different boundary conditions. Our analyses focus on the relationships between large-scale circulation and regional climate features, surface energy and water budgets, orographic precipitation, and hydrologic conditions within selected river basins. Regional simulations are also being performed using large-scale conditions simulated by the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model (PCM). The regional model was used to downscale the ensemble PCM climate change scenarios for periods of 10-20 years in the current and future climate. Results will be analyzed to study the impacts of greenhouse warming on regional water resources in the western U.S.

  15. A Study of the Abundance and 13C/12C Ratio of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide to Advance the Scientific Understanding of Terrestrial Processes Regulating the Global Carbon Cycle

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stephen C. Piper

    2005-10-15

    The primary goal of our research program, consistent with the goals of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and funded by the terrestrial carbon processes (TCP) program of DOE, has been to improve understanding of changes in the distribution and cycling of carbon among the active land, ocean and atmosphere reservoirs, with particular emphasis on terrestrial ecosystems. Our approach is to systematically measure atmospheric CO2 to produce time series data essential to reveal temporal and spatial patterns. Additional measurements of the 13C/12C isotopic ratio of CO2 provide a basis for distinguishing organic and inorganic processes. To pursue the significance of these patterns further, our research also involved interpretations of the observations by models, measurements of inorganic carbon in sea water, and of CO2 in air near growing land plants.

  16. Modernization of the graphics post-processors of the Hamburg German Climate Computer Center Carbon Cycle Codes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stevens, E.J.; McNeilly, G.S.

    1994-03-01

    The existing National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) code in the Hamburg Oceanic Carbon Cycle Circulation Model and the Hamburg Large-Scale Geostrophic Ocean General Circulation Model was modernized and reduced in size while still producing an equivalent end result. A reduction in the size of the existing code from more than 50,000 lines to approximately 7,500 lines in the new code has made the new code much easier to maintain. The existing code in Hamburg model uses legacy NCAR (including even emulated CALCOMP subrountines) graphics to display graphical output. The new code uses only current (version 3.1) NCAR subrountines.

  17. Five-years of microenvironment data along an urban-rural transect; temperature and CO2 concentrations in urban area at levels expected globally with climate change.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    George, Kate; Ziska, Lewis H; Bunce, James A; Quebedeaux, Bruno

    2007-11-01

    The heat island effect and the high use of fossil fuels in large city centers is well documented, but by how much fossil fuel consumption is elevating atmospheric CO2 concentrations and whether elevations in both atmospheric CO2 and air temperature are consistent from year to year are less well known. Our aim was to record atmospheric CO2 concentrations, air temperature and other environmental variables in an urban area and compare it to suburban and rural sites to see if urban sites are experiencing climates expected globally in the future with climate change. A transect was established from Baltimore city center (Urban site), to the outer suburbs of Baltimore (suburban site) and out to an organic farm (rural site). At each site a weather station was set-up to monitor environmental variables annually for five years. Atmospheric CO2 was significantly increased on average by 66 ppm from the rural to the urban site over the five years of the study. Air temperature was significantly higher at the urban site (14.8 oC) compared to the suburban (13.6 oC) and rural (12.7 oC) sites. Relative humidity was not different between sites but vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was significantly higher at the urban site compared to the suburban and rural sites. During wet years relative humidity was significantly increased and VPD significantly reduced. Increased nitrogen deposition at the rural site (2.1 % compared to 1.8 and 1.2 % at the suburban and urban sites) was small enough not to affect soil nitrogen content. Dense urban areas with large populations and high vehicular traffic have significantly different microclimates compared to outlying suburban and rural areas. The increases in atmospheric CO2 and air temperature are similar to changes predicted in the short term with global climate change, therefore providing an environment suitable for studying future effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.

  18. Greenland and Antarctic mass balances for present and doubled atmospheric CO{sub 2} from the GENESIS version-2 global climate model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thompson, S.L.; Pollard, D.

    1997-05-01

    As anthropogenic greenhouse warming occurs in the next century, changes in the mass balances of Greenland and Antarctica will probably accelerate and may have significant effects on global sea level. Recent trends and possible future changes in these mass balances have received considerable attention in the glaciological literature, but until recently relatively few general circulation modeling (GCM) studies have focused on the problem. However, there are two significant problems in using GCMs to predict mass balance distributions on ice sheets: (i) the relatively coarse GCM horizontal resolution truncates the topography of the ice-sheet flanks and smaller ice sheets such as Greenland, and (ii) the snow and ice physics in most GCMs does not include ice-sheet-specific processes such as the refreezing of meltwater. Two techniques are described that attack these problems, involving (i) an elevation-based correction to the surface meteorology and (ii) a simple a posteriori correction for the refreezing of meltwater following Pfeiffer et al. Using these techniques in a new version 2 of the Global Environmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems global climate model, the authors present global climate and ice-sheet mass-balance results from two equilibrated runs for present and doubled atmospheric CO{sub 2}. This GCM is well suited for ice-sheet mass-balance studies because (a) the surface can be represented at a finer resolution (2{degrees} lat x 2{degrees} long) than the atmospheric GCM, (b) the two correction techniques are included as part of the model, and the model`s mass balances for present-day Greenland and Antarctica are realistic. 131 refs., 23 figs., 2 tabs.

  19. The Impact of Global Warming on the Carbon Cycle of Arctic Permafrost: An Experimental and Field Based Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Onstott, Tullis C; Pffifner, Susan M; Chourey, Karuna

    2014-11-07

    Our results to date indicate that CO2 and CH4 fluxes from organic poor, Arctic cryosols on Axel Heiberg Island are net CH4 sinks and CO2 emitters in contrast to organic-rich peat deposits at sub-Arctic latitudes. This is based upon field observations and a 1.5 year long thawing experiment performed upon one meter long intact cores. The results of the core thawing experiments are in good agreement with field measurements. Metagenomic, metatranscriptomic and metaproteomic analyses indicate that high affinity aerobic methanotrophs belong to the uncultivated USCalpha are present in <1% abundance in these cryosols are are active in the field during the summer and in the core thawing experiments. The methanotrophs are 100 times more abundant than the methanogens. As a result mineral cryosols, which comprise 87% of Arctic tundra, are net methane sinks. Their presence and activity may account for the discrepancies observed between the atmospheric methane concentrations observed in the Arctic predicted by climate models and the observed seasonal fluctuations and decadal trends. This has not been done yet.

  20. Observing terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle from space

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schimel, David; Pavlick, Ryan; Fisher, Joshua B.; Asner, Gregory P.; Saatchi, Sassan; Townsend, Philip; Miller, Charles E.; Frankenberg, Christian; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Cox, Peter

    2015-02-06

    Modeled terrestrial ecosystem and carbon cycle feedbacks contribute substantial uncertainty to projections of future climate. The limitations of current observing networks contribute to this uncertainty. Here we present a current climatology of global model predictions and observations for photosynthesis, biomass, plant diversity and plant functional diversity. Carbon cycle tipping points occur in terrestrial regions where fluxes or stocks are largest, and where biological variability is highest, the tropics and Arctic/Boreal zones. Global observations are predominately in the mid-latitudes and are sparse in high and low latitude ecosystems. Observing and forecasting ecosystem change requires sustained observations of sufficient density in time and space in critical regions. Using data and theory available now, we can develop a strategy to detect and forecast terrestrial carbon cycle-climate interactions, by combining in situ and remote techniques.

  1. Response of precipitation extremes to idealized global warming in an aqua-planet climate model: Towards robust projection across different horizontal resolutions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, F.; Collins, W.D.; Wehner, M.F.; Williamson, D.L.; Olson, J.G.

    2011-04-15

    Current climate models produce quite heterogeneous projections for the responses of precipitation extremes to future climate change. To help understand the range of projections from multimodel ensembles, a series of idealized 'aquaplanet' Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) runs have been performed with the Community Atmosphere Model CAM3. These runs have been analysed to identify the effects of horizontal resolution on precipitation extreme projections under two simple global warming scenarios. We adopt the aquaplanet framework for our simulations to remove any sensitivity to the spatial resolution of external inputs and to focus on the roles of model physics and dynamics. Results show that a uniform increase of sea surface temperature (SST) and an increase of low-to-high latitude SST gradient both lead to increase of precipitation and precipitation extremes for most latitudes. The perturbed SSTs generally have stronger impacts on precipitation extremes than on mean precipitation. Horizontal model resolution strongly affects the global warming signals in the extreme precipitation in tropical and subtropical regions but not in high latitude regions. This study illustrates that the effects of horizontal resolution have to be taken into account to develop more robust projections of precipitation extremes.

  2. Tectonic control of coastal onlap cycles, southwest Washington

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Armentrout, J.M.

    1987-05-01

    Local coastal onlap and paleobiobathymetric curves for 14 sections define three Cenozoic depositional onlap-offlap cycles separated by regionally significant unconformities. A paleoclimatic curve for western Oregon and Washington, based on paleoecologic data sets, demonstrates that the local transgressions are coincident with cool climates and the regressions with warm climates, and are therefore not driven by glacioeustatic cycles. Comparison of the local coastal onlap and paleobiobathymetric curves with the global Cenozoic Cycle Chart (modified Exxon Sea Level Chart - May, 1986) further demonstrates the uniqueness of the western Washington curves. The global Cenozoic cycle Chart curve represents coastal onlap and sea level curves based on integration of both climate and tectonic variations. The non-parallel cycle pattern for southwest Washington suggests a unique tectonically forced system. Evidence derived from stratigraphic sequences, igneous rock geochemistry, radiometric dating, remnant magnetic patterns, sandstone provenance studies, and paleogeographic reconstructions is used to identify the tectonic events controlling the local depositional cycles. The principal events are (1) middle Eocene accretion of a seamount chain; (2) early-late Eocene westward relocation of subduction; (3) late Eocene onset of Cascade arc volcanism; (4) late-early Miocene plate readjustment due to back-arc extension in the Columbia River Plateau and Great Basin; and (5) late Pliocene to early Pleistocene northeast compression forced by continued subduction of remnants of the Kula Plate beneath North America.

  3. THE APPLICATION OF A STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING PROCESS TO DERIVE 21{sup ST} CENTURY RIVER FLOW PREDICTIONS USING A GLOBAL CLIMATE SIMULATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Werth, D.; Chen, K. F.

    2013-08-22

    The ability of water managers to maintain adequate supplies in coming decades depends, in part, on future weather conditions, as climate change has the potential to alter river flows from their current values, possibly rendering them unable to meet demand. Reliable climate projections are therefore critical to predicting the future water supply for the United States. These projections cannot be provided solely by global climate models (GCMs), however, as their resolution is too coarse to resolve the small-scale climate changes that can affect hydrology, and hence water supply, at regional to local scales. A process is needed to ‘downscale’ the GCM results to the smaller scales and feed this into a surface hydrology model to help determine the ability of rivers to provide adequate flow to meet future needs. We apply a statistical downscaling to GCM projections of precipitation and temperature through the use of a scaling method. This technique involves the correction of the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of the GCM-derived temperature and precipitation results for the 20{sup th} century, and the application of the same correction to 21{sup st} century GCM projections. This is done for three meteorological stations located within the Coosa River basin in northern Georgia, and is used to calculate future river flow statistics for the upper Coosa River. Results are compared to the historical Coosa River flow upstream from Georgia Power Company’s Hammond coal-fired power plant and to flows calculated with the original, unscaled GCM results to determine the impact of potential changes in meteorology on future flows.

  4. Climate Leadership Conference

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Climate Leadership Conference is your annual exchange for addressing global climate change through policy, innovation, and business solutions. Forward-thinking lead­ers from busi­ness, gov­ern...

  5. Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curry, Judith

    2015-05-21

    This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatory environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.

  6. An open letter to the 2008 presidential candidates: get the facts right on what's responsible for global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Linden, Henry R.

    2008-07-15

    The two remaining presidential candidates have adopted policies for reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that address factors that are mistakenly held responsible as the primary cause of global warming. Here's what they need to keep in mind in order to craft genuinely efficacious policies. (author)

  7. EDDY RESOLVING NUTRIENT ECODYNAMICS IN THE GLOBAL PARALLEL OCEAN PROGRAM AND CONNECTIONS WITH TRACE GASES IN THE SULFUR, HALOGEN AND NMHC CYCLES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. CHU; S. ELLIOTT

    2000-08-01

    Ecodynamics and the sea-air transfer of climate relevant trace gases are intimately coupled in the oceanic mixed layer. Ventilation of species such as dimethyl sulfide and methyl bromide constitutes a key linkage within the earth system. We are creating a research tool for the study of marine trace gas distributions by implementing coupled ecology-gas chemistry in the high resolution Parallel Ocean Program (POP). The fundamental circulation model is eddy resolving, with cell sizes averaging 0.15 degree (lat/long). Here we describe ecochemistry integration. Density dependent mortality and iron geochemistry have enhanced agreement with chlorophyll measurements. Indications are that dimethyl sulfide production rates must be adjusted for latitude dependence to match recent compilations. This may reflect the need for phytoplankton to conserve nitrogen by favoring sulfurous osmolytes. Global simulations are also available for carbonyl sulfide, the methyl halides and for nonmethane hydrocarbons. We discuss future applications including interaction with atmospheric chemistry models, high resolution biogeochemical snapshots and the study of open ocean fertilization.

  8. A process oriented analysis of the ``declaration of German industry on global warming prevention'' and its implications for the role of voluntary approaches in post-Kyoto climate policy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ramesohl, S.; Kristof, K.

    1999-07-01

    Challenged by industry's growing claim for higher self-responsibility and more flexibility, energy and climate policy-makers need to define a future role of voluntary approaches (VA) which realizes the benefits but guarantees environmental effectiveness and political efficiency of these initiatives. Taking the 1996 ``Declaration of German industry on global warming prevention (DGWP)'' as an example of an energy related VA, the paper pursues a dual approach for policy analysis in order to evaluate the static performance and the dynamic process features of the DFWP approach. Transferred to a dynamic model of co-evolutionary climate policy-making, the general conclusions of the German case for climate policy are discussed.

  9. Subtask 2.4 - Integration and Synthesis in Climate Change Predictive Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jaroslav Solc

    2009-06-01

    The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) completed a brief evaluation of the existing status of predictive modeling to assess options for integration of our previous paleohydrologic reconstructions and their synthesis with current global climate scenarios. Results of our research indicate that short-term data series available from modern instrumental records are not sufficient to reconstruct past hydrologic events or predict future ones. On the contrary, reconstruction of paleoclimate phenomena provided credible information on past climate cycles and confirmed their integration in the context of regional climate history is possible. Similarly to ice cores and other paleo proxies, acquired data represent an objective, credible tool for model calibration and validation of currently observed trends. It remains a subject of future research whether further refinement of our results and synthesis with regional and global climate observations could contribute to improvement and credibility of climate predictions on a regional and global scale.

  10. Models of carbon flow in tropical ecosystems with emphasis on their role in the global carbon cycle. Final report, September 15, 1978-September 14, 1980

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, S.; Lugo, A.E.

    1980-01-01

    The role of tropical forests on the carbon balance of the world is studied with four different approaches: (1) to quantify the area of tropical forests and the changes in forest cover; (2) to calculate the storage and production of organic carbon in tropical forests; (3) the modelling of land use changes in tropical countries using computer simulation models; and (4) the synthesis of information from many sources into conceptual schemes using Life Zone and energy use concepts. Results are not yet conclusive but indicate that tropical forests play a significant role in the global carbon cycle, and they are likely to be small sources of carbon to the atmosphere. The basis for this statement is: (1) the large area of tropical forests do not appear to be changing as fast as suggested earlier; (2) the storage of carbon in the tropics is about one half as previously suggested; (3) the turnover of carbon in the tropics is very fast with large exports to the ocean via rivers; and (4) models of land use change using data from Bolivia show only a small net addition of carbon to the atmosphere.

  11. Climate-Energy Nexus

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sayler, Gary; Gentry, Randall; Zhuang, Jie

    2010-07-01

    The 140-page published proceedings of the workshop include individual articles and PowerPoint slides for all workshop presentations. The proceedings also contain pertinent background information on the China-US Joint Research Center, partnering organizations, and workshop goals and objectives. Overall, the workshop increased the understanding of the impacts of climate change on energy use and renewable energy production as well as the complex relationships among land use, energy production, and ecological restoration. The workshop served as an international platform for scientists and students of different research backgrounds to develop a unified perspective on energy and climate relationships. Such understanding will benefit future cooperation between China and the US in mitigating global climate change. The workshop’s agenda, which is highly interdisciplinary, explored many potential opportunities for international collaboration in ecosystem management, climate modeling, greenhouse gas emissions, and bioenergy sustainability. International research groups have been suggested in the areas of genomes and biotechnology of energy plants, sustainable management of soil and water resources, carbon sequestration, and microbial processes for ecological cycles. The project has attracted considerable attention from institutes beyond the China-US Joint Research Center partners, and several of them (such as Institute of Qing-Tibet Plateau Research, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Institute of Applied Ecology, CAS) have expressed interest in joining the partnership. In addition, the workshop played a significant role in facilitating establishment of private-public partnerships between government and private bioenergy companies (such as L.R. Shugarts and Associates, Inc.), including seed providers (Blade Energy Crops, Thousand Oaks, CA), pilot demonstration projects at coal-producing cities (e.g., Huaibei, Anhui province, China), and the development of methodology

  12. Wetland (peat) Carbon Cycle

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    wetland peat carbon cycle Wetland (peat) Carbon Cycle Methane (CH4) is an important greenhouse gas, twenty times more potent than CO2, but atmospheric concentrations of CH4 under future climate change are uncertain. This is in part because many climate-sensitive ecosystems release both CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) and it is unknown how these systems will partition future releases of carbon to the atmosphere. Ecosystem observations of CH4 emissions lack mechanistic links to the processes that

  13. Fuel Cycle Technologies

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Powerful imperatives drive the continued need for nuclear power, among them the need for reliable, baseload electricity and the threat of global climate change. As the only large-scale source of...

  14. Effect of Terrestrial and Marine Organic Aerosol on Regional and Global Climate: Model Development, Application, and Verification with Satellite Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meskhidze, Nicholas; Zhang, Yang; Kamykowski, Daniel

    2012-03-28

    In this DOE project the improvements to parameterization of marine primary organic matter (POM) emissions, hygroscopic properties of marine POM, marine isoprene derived secondary organic aerosol (SOA) emissions, surfactant effects, new cloud droplet activation parameterization have been implemented into Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 5.0), with a seven mode aerosol module from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)'s Modal Aerosol Model (MAM7). The effects of marine aerosols derived from sea spray and ocean emitted biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) on microphysical properties of clouds were explored by conducting 10 year CAM5.0-MAM7 model simulations at a grid resolution 1.9° by 2.5° with 30 vertical layers. Model-predicted relationship between ocean physical and biological systems and the abundance of CCN in remote marine atmosphere was compared to data from the A-Train satellites (MODIS, CALIPSO, AMSR-E). Model simulations show that on average, primary and secondary organic aerosol emissions from the ocean can yield up to 20% increase in Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) at 0.2% Supersaturation, and up to 5% increases in droplet number concentration of global maritime shallow clouds. Marine organics were treated as internally or externally mixed with sea salt. Changes associated with cloud properties reduced (absolute value) the model-predicted short wave cloud forcing from -1.35 Wm-2 to -0.25 Wm-2. By using different emission scenarios, and droplet activation parameterizations, this study suggests that addition of marine primary aerosols and biologically generated reactive gases makes an important difference in radiative forcing assessments. All baseline and sensitivity simulations for 2001 and 2050 using global-through-urban WRF/Chem (GU-WRF) were completed. The main objective of these simulations was to evaluate the capability of GU-WRF for an accurate representation of the global atmosphere by exploring the most accurate configuration of

  15. ARM - The Hydrologic Cycle

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Hydrologic Cycle Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans The Hydrologic Cycle The hydrologic cycle is the cycle through which water passes from sea to land and from land to sea. Water vapor enters the air through the evaporation of water. Water vapor in the air eventually condenses

  16. Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Deng, Yi

    2014-11-24

    DOE-GTRC-05596 11/24/2104 Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate PI: Dr. Yi Deng (PI) School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology 404-385-1821, yi.deng@eas.gatech.edu El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Annular Modes (AMs) represent respectively the most important modes of low frequency variability in the tropical and extratropical circulations. The projection of future changes in the ENSO and AM variability, however, remains highly uncertain with the state-of-the-science climate models. This project conducted a process-resolving, quantitative evaluations of the ENSO and AM variability in the modern reanalysis observations and in climate model simulations. The goal is to identify and understand the sources of uncertainty and biases in models’ representation of ENSO and AM variability. Using a feedback analysis method originally formulated by one of the collaborative PIs, we partitioned the 3D atmospheric temperature anomalies and surface temperature anomalies associated with ENSO and AM variability into components linked to 1) radiation-related thermodynamic processes such as cloud and water vapor feedbacks, 2) local dynamical processes including convection and turbulent/diffusive energy transfer and 3) non-local dynamical processes such as the horizontal energy transport in the oceans and atmosphere. In the past 4 years, the research conducted at Georgia Tech under the support of this project has led to 15 peer-reviewed publications and 9 conference/workshop presentations. Two graduate students and one postdoctoral fellow also received research training through participating the project activities. This final technical report summarizes key scientific discoveries we made and provides also a list of all publications and conference presentations resulted from research activities at Georgia Tech. The main findings include

  17. Sensitivity of global-scale climate change attribution results to inclusion of fossil fuel black carbon aerosol - article no. L14701

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, G.S.; Jones, A.; Roberts, D.L.; Stott, P.A.; Williams, K.D.

    2005-07-16

    It is likely that greenhouse gas emissions caused most of the global mean warming observed during the 20th century, and that sulphate aerosols counteracted this warming to some extent, by reflecting solar radiation to space and thereby cooling the planet. However, the importance of another aerosol, namely black carbon, could be underestimated. Here we include fossil fuel black carbon aerosol in a detection and attribution analysis with greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosols. We find that most of the warming of the 20th Century is attributable to changes in greenhouse gases offset by net aerosol cooling. However the pattern of temperature change due to black carbon is currently indistinguishable from the sulphate aerosol pattern of temperature change. The attribution of temperature change due to greenhouse gases is not sensitive to the inclusion of black carbon. We can be confident about the overall attribution of total aerosols, but less so about the contributions of black carbon emissions to 20th century climate change. This work presents no evidence that black carbon aerosol forcing outweighed the cooling due to sulphate aerosol.

  18. Wanted: Global Clean Energy Partners | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Super contributor 24 February, 2010 - 13:51 imported OpenEI Global climate change. Global sustainability. Global economic development. There's no doubt about it-if the...

  19. Analysis of Energy, Environmental and Life Cycle Cost Reduction...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy, Environmental and Life Cycle Cost Reduction Potential of Ground Source Heat Pump (GSHP) in Hot and Humid Climate Analysis of Energy, Environmental and Life Cycle Cost ...

  20. Climate SIGNATURES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SIGNATURES Fingerprints of a Dynamic Planet A Science of Signatures Plan 2 Climate Signatures for National Security Century of Change Los Alamos National Laboratory's charge is to develop science and technology that will make the Nation safer and enhance our global standing. This breadth of mission scope requires careful planning and effective cooperation with partners and other governmental agencies. The document you are holding is one of the products of ongoing efforts that are designed to

  1. U.S. Mayor's Climate Protection Agreement: Climate Action Handbook...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Action Handbook offers examples of actions that local governments can take to reduce global warming emissions and implement the commitments for climate protection called out...

  2. Global Ocean Storage of Anthropogenic Carbon (GOSAC)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orr, J C

    2002-04-02

    GOSAC was an EC-funded project (1998-2001) focused on improving the predictive capacity and accelerating development of global-scale, three-dimensional, ocean carbon-cycle models by means of standardized model evaluation and model intercomparison. Through the EC Environment and Climate Programme, GOSAC supported the participation of seven European modeling groups in the second phase of the larger international effort OCMIP (the Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project). OCMIP included model comparison and validation for both CO{sub 2} and other ocean circulation and biogeochemical tracers. Beyond the international OCMIP effort, GOSAC also supported the same EC ocean carbon cycle modeling groups to make simulations to evaluate the efficiency of purposeful sequestration of CO{sub 2} in the ocean. Such sequestration, below the thermocline has been proposed as a strategy to help mitigate the increase of CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere. Some technical and scientific highlights of GOSAC are given.

  3. Refining climate models

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Warren, Jeff; Iversen, Colleen; Brooks, Jonathan; Ricciuto, Daniel

    2014-06-26

    Using dogwood trees, Oak Ridge National Laboratory researchers are gaining a better understanding of the role photosynthesis and respiration play in the atmospheric carbon dioxide cycle. Their findings will aid computer modelers in improving the accuracy of climate simulations.

  4. Refining climate models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Warren, Jeff; Iversen, Colleen; Brooks, Jonathan; Ricciuto, Daniel

    2012-10-31

    Using dogwood trees, Oak Ridge National Laboratory researchers are gaining a better understanding of the role photosynthesis and respiration play in the atmospheric carbon dioxide cycle. Their findings will aid computer modelers in improving the accuracy of climate simulations.

  5. Sandia Energy Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Team Attends World Water Week in Stockholm http:energy.sandia.govsandia-team-attends-world-water-week-in-stockholm http:energy.sandia.govsandia-team-attends-world-water-week...

  6. Global Climate Change Impacts & Activities

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... 37 B. Reduce painting booth air flow IAW NFPA 91. 10% TR 0.18 1.19 0.12 20,000 ... 1.88 3.17 550,000 Sub-Total 1.23 7.99 3.97 690,000 Major Kaizens 1. Steam ...

  7. Climate Change | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... Highlights substantial growing efforts to support developing countries in the global response to climate change. Also details the financial assistance, education programs, and ...

  8. TITAN'S TRANSPORT-DRIVEN METHANE CYCLE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mitchell, Jonathan L.

    2012-09-10

    The mechanisms behind the occurrence of large cloud outbursts and precipitation on Titan have been disputed. A global- and annual-mean estimate of surface fluxes indicated only 1% of the insolation, or {approx}0.04 W m{sup -2}, is exchanged as sensible and/or latent fluxes. Since these fluxes are responsible for driving atmospheric convection, it has been argued that moist convection should be quite rare and precipitation even rarer, even if evaporation globally dominates the surface-atmosphere energy exchange. In contrast, climate simulations indicate substantial cloud formation and/or precipitation. We argue that the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative imbalance is diagnostic of horizontal heat transport by Titan's atmosphere, and thus constrains the strength of the methane cycle. Simple calculations show the TOA radiative imbalance is {approx}0.5-1 W m{sup -2} in Titan's equatorial region, which implies 2-3 MW of latitudinal heat transport by the atmosphere. Our simulation of Titan's climate suggests this transport may occur primarily as latent heat, with net evaporation at the equator and net accumulation at higher latitudes. Thus, the methane cycle could be 10-20 times previous estimates. Opposing seasonal transport at solstices, compensation by sensible heat transport, and focusing of precipitation by large-scale dynamics could further enhance the local, instantaneous strength of Titan's methane cycle by a factor of several. A limited supply of surface liquids in regions of large surface radiative imbalance may throttle the methane cycle, and if so, we predict more frequent large storms over the lakes district during Titan's northern summer.

  9. Analysis of Energy, Environmental and Life Cycle Cost Reduction Potential of Ground Source Heat Pump (GSHP) in Hot and Humid Climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yong X. Tao; Yimin Zhu

    2012-04-26

    It has been widely recognized that the energy saving benefits of GSHP systems are best realized in the northern and central regions where heating needs are dominant or both heating and cooling loads are comparable. For hot and humid climate such as in the states of FL, LA, TX, southern AL, MS, GA, NC and SC, buildings have much larger cooling needs than heating needs. The Hybrid GSHP (HGSHP) systems therefore have been developed and installed in some locations of those states, which use additional heat sinks (such as cooling tower, domestic water heating systems) to reject excess heat. Despite the development of HGSHP the comprehensive analysis of their benefits and barriers for wide application has been limited and often yields non-conclusive results. In general, GSHP/HGSHP systems often have higher initial costs than conventional systems making short-term economics unattractive. Addressing these technical and financial barriers call for additional evaluation of innovative utility programs, incentives and delivery approaches. From scientific and technical point of view, the potential for wide applications of GSHP especially HGSHP in hot and humid climate is significant, especially towards building zero energy homes where the combined energy efficient GSHP and abundant solar energy production in hot climate can be an optimal solution. To address these challenges, this report presents gathering and analyzing data on the costs and benefits of GSHP/HGSHP systems utilized in southern states using a representative sample of building applications. The report outlines the detailed analysis to conclude that the application of GSHP in Florida (and hot and humid climate in general) shows a good potential.

  10. Permafrost soils and carbon cycling

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Ping, C. L.; Jastrow, J. D.; Jorgenson, M. T.; Michaelson, G. J.; Shur, Y. L.

    2015-02-05

    Knowledge of soils in the permafrost region has advanced immensely in recent decades, despite the remoteness and inaccessibility of most of the region and the sampling limitations posed by the severe environment. These efforts significantly increased estimates of the amount of organic carbon stored in permafrost-region soils and improved understanding of how pedogenic processes unique to permafrost environments built enormous organic carbon stocks during the Quaternary. This knowledge has also called attention to the importance of permafrost-affected soils to the global carbon cycle and the potential vulnerability of the region's soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks to changing climatic conditions. Inmore » this review, we briefly introduce the permafrost characteristics, ice structures, and cryopedogenic processes that shape the development of permafrost-affected soils, and discuss their effects on soil structures and on organic matter distributions within the soil profile. We then examine the quantity of organic carbon stored in permafrost-region soils, as well as the characteristics, intrinsic decomposability, and potential vulnerability of this organic carbon to permafrost thaw under a warming climate. Overall, frozen conditions and cryopedogenic processes, such as cryoturbation, have slowed decomposition and enhanced the sequestration of organic carbon in permafrost-affected soils over millennial timescales. Due to the low temperatures, the organic matter in permafrost soils is often less humified than in more temperate soils, making some portion of this stored organic carbon relatively vulnerable to mineralization upon thawing of permafrost.« less