National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for global change carbon

  1. Carbon dioxide and global climate change: The birth and arrested development of an idea

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mudge, F.B.

    1996-12-31

    G.S. Callendar (1897--1964) is regarded the originator of the modern theory of carbon dioxide and global climate change. However, this paper shows that the theory was developed and became well accepted during the nineteenth century. Carbon dioxide was discovered by Black in 1752. From 1820 to 1890 a steadily growing number of measurements of its atmospheric concentration were made using steadily improving techniques; the average results fell from around 500 ppm in 1820 to about 300 ppm in 1890. By the end of the following decade the greenhouse theory of global climate change seemed widely accepted. However in 1900 and 1901 Aangstroem appeared to demolish the theory when he reported that changes in the carbon dioxide level can have little effect because of the overlap of the water and carbon dioxide spectral bands. At a stroke, all interest in the measurement of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels seemed to disappear, although during the 1920s and 1930s a few workers resumed the work but for reasons unconnected to climate change. Over the next thirty years the writers of authoritative textbooks dismissed the theory of carbon dioxide and climate change as an example of misguided speculation. Then in 1938 Callendar`s first paper appeared, reviving the theory which had lain forgotten for nearly forty years.

  2. Multi-century Changes to Global Climate and Carbon Cycle: Results from a Coupled Climate and Carbon Cycle Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Mirin, A; Wickett, M; Delire, C

    2005-02-17

    In this paper, we use a coupled climate and carbon cycle model to investigate the global climate and carbon cycle changes out to year 2300 that would occur if CO{sub 2} emissions from all the currently estimated fossil fuel resources were released to the atmosphere. By year 2300, the global climate warms by about 8 K and atmospheric CO{sub 2} reaches 1423 ppmv. The warming is higher than anticipated because the sensitivity to radiative forcing increases as the simulation progresses. In our simulation, the rate of emissions peak at over 30 PgC yr{sup -1} early in the 22nd century. Even at year 2300, nearly 50% of cumulative emissions remain in the atmosphere. In our simulations both soils and living biomass are net carbon sinks throughout the simulation. Despite having relatively low climate sensitivity and strong carbon uptake by the land biosphere, our model projections suggest severe long-term consequences for global climate if all the fossil-fuel carbon is ultimately released to the atmosphere.

  3. Global carbon budget 2014

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Peters, G. P.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Jones, S. D.; Sitch, S.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; et al

    2015-05-08

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissionsmore » from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ;, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates

  4. Global carbon budget 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Peters, G. P.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Jones, S. D.; Sitch, S.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Boden, T. A.; Bopp, L.; Bozec, Y.; Canadell, J. G.; Chini, L. P.; Chevallier, F.; Cosca, C. E.; Harris, I.; Hoppema, M.; Houghton, R. A.; House, J. I.; Jain, A. K.; Johannessen, T.; Kato, E.; Keeling, R. F.; Kitidis, V.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Koven, C.; Landa, C. S.; Landschützer, P.; Lenton, A.; Lima, I. D.; Marland, G.; Mathis, J. T.; Metzl, N.; Nojiri, Y.; Olsen, A.; Ono, T.; Peng, S.; Peters, W.; Pfeil, B.; Poulter, B.; Raupach, M. R.; Regnier, P.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Salisbury, J. E.; Schuster, U.; Schwinger, J.; Séférian, R.; Segschneider, J.; Steinhoff, T.; Stocker, B. D.; Sutton, A. J.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; van der Werf, G. R.; Viovy, N.; Wang, Y.-P.; Wanninkhof, R.; Wiltshire, A.; Zeng, N.

    2015-05-08

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from

  5. Global Carbon Budget 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Canadell, J. G.; Sitch, S.; Korsbakken, J. I.; Friedlingstein, P.; Peters, G. P.; Andres, R. J.; Boden, T. A.; Houghton, R. A.; House, J. I.; Keeling, R. F.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Barbero, L.; Bopp, L.; Chang, J.; Chevallier, F.; Chini, L. P.; Ciais, P.; Fader, M.; Gkritzalis, T.; Harris, I.; Hauck, J.; Ilyina, T.; Jain, A. K.; Kato, E.; Kitidis, V.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Landschützer, P.; Lauvset, S. K.; Lefèvre, N.; Lenton, A.; Lima, I. D.; Metzl, N.; Millero, F.; Munro, D. R.; Murata, A.; Nabel, J. E. M. S.; Nakaoka, S.; Nojiri, Y.; O'Brien, K.; Olsen, A.; Ono, T.; Pérez, F. F.; Pfeil, B.; Pierrot, D.; Poulter, B.; Rehder, G.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Schuster, U.; Schwinger, J.; Séférian, R.; Steinhoff, T.; Stocker, B. D.; Sutton, A. J.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; van Heuven, S.; Vandemark, D.; Viovy, N.; Wiltshire, A.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.

    2015-12-07

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We also discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. Moreover, the mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three

  6. Global Carbon Budget 2015

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Canadell, J. G.; Sitch, S.; Korsbakken, J. I.; Friedlingstein, P.; Peters, G. P.; Andres, R. J.; Boden, T. A.; et al

    2015-12-07

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We also discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology andmore » data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. Moreover, the mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each

  7. Numerical evaluation of mechanisms driving Early Jurassic changes in global carbon cycling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beerling, D.J.; Brentnall, S.J.

    2007-03-15

    The Early Jurassic (early Toarcian, ca. 183 Ma) carbon cycle perturbation is characterized by aabout -5 parts per thousand {delta} {sup 13}C excursion in the exogenic carbon reservoirs, a 1000 ppm rise in atmospheric CO{sub 2}, and a 6-7 degrees warming. Two proposed explanations for this presumed global carbon cycle perturbation are the liberation of massive amounts of isotopically light CH4 from (1) Gondwanan coals by heating during the intrusive eruption of the Karoo-Ferrar large igneous province (LIP) or (2) the thermal dissociation of gas hydrates. Carbon cycle modeling indicates that the release of CH4 from Gondwanan coals synchronous with the eruption of the Karoo-Ferrar LIP fails to reproduce the magnitude or timing of the CO{sub 2} and {delta} {sup 13}C excursions. However, sensitivity analyses constrained by a marine cyclostratigraphically dated {delta}{sup 13}C record indicate that both features of geologic record can be explained with the huge input of about 15,340-24,750 Gt C over about 220 k.y., a result possibly pointing to the involvement of hydrothermal vent complexes in the Karoo Basin. The simulated release of > 6000 Gt C from gas hydrates also reproduces aspects of the early Toarcian rock record, but the large mass involved raises fundamental questions about its formation, storage, and release.

  8. The Global Carbon Bank | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Carbon Bank Jump to: navigation, search Name: The Global Carbon Bank Place: Houston, Texas Zip: 77025 Sector: Carbon, Services Product: Houston-based provider of advisory...

  9. Global Climate Change and Agriculture

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Izaurralde, Roberto C.

    2009-01-01

    The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released in 2007 significantly increased our confidence about the role that humans play in forcing climate change. There is now a high degree of confidence that the (a) current atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) far exceed those of the pre-industrial era, (b) global increases in CO2 arise mainly from fossil fuel use and land use change while those of CH4 and N2O originate primarily from agricultural activities, and (c) the net effect of human activities since 1750 has led to a warming of the lower layers of the atmosphere, with an increased radiative forcing of 1.6 W m-2. Depending on the scenario of human population growth and global development, mean global temperatures could rise between 1.8 and 4.0 C by the end of the 21st century.

  10. Final Report for ''SOURCES AND SINKS OF CARBON FROM LAND-USE CHANGE AND MANAGEMENT: A GLOBAL SYNTHESIS'' Project Period September 15, 2001--September 14, 2003

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houghton, R.A.

    2003-12-12

    Land management and land-use change can either release carbon (as CO{sub 2}) to the atmosphere, for example when forests are converted to agricultural lands, or withdraw carbon from the atmosphere as forests grow on cleared lands or as management practices sequester carbon in soil. The purpose of this work was to calculate the annual sources and sinks of carbon from changes in land use and management, globally and for nine world regions, over the period 1850 to 2000. The approach had three components. First, rates of land-use change were reconstructed from historical information on the areas of croplands, pastures, forests, and other lands and from data on wood harvests. In most regions, land-use change included the conversion of natural ecosystems to cultivated lands and pastures, including shifting cultivation, harvest of wood (for timber and fuel), and the establishment of tree plantations. In the U.S., woody encroachment and woodland thickening as a result of fire suppression were also included. Second, the amount of carbon per hectare in vegetation and soils and changes in that carbon as a result of land-use change were determined from data obtained in the ecological and forestry literature. These data on land-use change and carbon stocks were then used in a bookkeeping model (third component) to calculate regional and global changes in terrestrial carbon. The results indicate that for the period 1850-2000 the net flux of carbon from changes in land use was 156 PgC. For comparison, emissions of carbon from combustion of fossil fuels were approximately 280 PgC during the same interval. Annual emissions from land-use change exceeded emissions from fossil fuels before about 1920. Somewhat more that half (60%) of the long-term flux was from the tropics. Average annual fluxes during the 1980s and 1990s were 2.0 and 2.2 ({+-}0.8) PgC yr{sup -1} (30-40% of fossil fuel emissions), respectively. In these decades, the global sources of carbon were almost entirely from

  11. Sensitivity of global-scale climate change attribution results to inclusion of fossil fuel black carbon aerosol - article no. L14701

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, G.S.; Jones, A.; Roberts, D.L.; Stott, P.A.; Williams, K.D.

    2005-07-16

    It is likely that greenhouse gas emissions caused most of the global mean warming observed during the 20th century, and that sulphate aerosols counteracted this warming to some extent, by reflecting solar radiation to space and thereby cooling the planet. However, the importance of another aerosol, namely black carbon, could be underestimated. Here we include fossil fuel black carbon aerosol in a detection and attribution analysis with greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosols. We find that most of the warming of the 20th Century is attributable to changes in greenhouse gases offset by net aerosol cooling. However the pattern of temperature change due to black carbon is currently indistinguishable from the sulphate aerosol pattern of temperature change. The attribution of temperature change due to greenhouse gases is not sensitive to the inclusion of black carbon. We can be confident about the overall attribution of total aerosols, but less so about the contributions of black carbon emissions to 20th century climate change. This work presents no evidence that black carbon aerosol forcing outweighed the cooling due to sulphate aerosol.

  12. Mandarin Global Carbon Ltd | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Mandarin Global Carbon Ltd Jump to: navigation, search Name: Mandarin Global Carbon Ltd Place: Londaon, Greater London, United Kingdom Zip: W1S 1TD Sector: Carbon, Hydro Product:...

  13. Carbon Markets Global Ltd | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Markets Global Ltd Jump to: navigation, search Name: Carbon Markets Global Ltd Place: London, United Kingdom Zip: NW4 2HT Product: Assist project originators develop and finance...

  14. Climate Effects of Global Land Cover Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gibbard, S G; Caldeira, K; Bala, G; Phillips, T; Wickett, M

    2005-08-24

    There are two competing effects of global land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to heating when changing from grass/croplands to forest, and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate in a global land cover change scenario. We have performed coupled land/ocean/atmosphere simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model. We find that replacement of current vegetation by trees on a global basis would lead to a global annual mean warming of 1.6 C, nearly 75% of the warming produced under a doubled CO{sub 2} concentration, while global replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4 C. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming. In particular, high latitude forests probably have a net warming effect on the Earth's climate.

  15. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and the global carbon cycle

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Trabalka, J R

    1985-12-01

    This state-of-the-art volume presents discussions on the global cycle of carbon, the dynamic balance among global atmospheric CO2 sources and sinks. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the individual papers. (ACR)

  16. Global change: Acronyms and abbreviations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woodard, C.T.; Stoss, F.W.

    1995-05-01

    This list of acronyms and abbreviations is compiled to provide the user with a ready reference to dicipher the linguistic initialisms and abridgements for the study of global change. The terms included in this first edition were selected from a wide variety of sources: technical reports, policy documents, global change program announcements, newsletters, and other periodicals. The disciplinary interests covered by this document include agriculture, atmospheric science, ecology, environmental science, oceanography, policy science, and other fields. In addition to its availability in hard copy, the list of acronyms and abbreviations is available in DOS-formatted diskettes and through CDIAC`s anonymous File Transfer Protocol (FTP) area on the Internet.

  17. Global Climate Change Institute | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Change Institute Jump to: navigation, search Name: Global Climate Change Institute Place: Tsinghua University, Beijing Municipality, China Zip: 100084 Product: Global Climate...

  18. Brazil Interministerial Commission on Global Climate Change ...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Interministerial Commission on Global Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Name: Brazil Interministerial Commission on Global Climate Change Place: Distrito Federal...

  19. Global warming and changes in ocean circulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Duffy, P.B.; Caldeira, K.C.

    1998-02-01

    This final report provides an overview of the goals and accomplishments of this project. Modeling and observational work has raised the possibility that global warming may cause changes in the circulation of the ocean. If such changes would occur they could have important climatic consequences. The first technical goal of this project was to investigate some of these possible changes in ocean circulation in a quantitative way, using a state-of -the-art numerical model of the ocean. Another goal was to develop our ocean model, a detailed three-dimensional numerical model of the ocean circulation and ocean carbon cycles. A major non-technical goal was to establish LLNL as a center of excellence in modelling the ocean circulation and carbon cycle.

  20. Estimating Carbon Supply Curves for Global Forests and Other...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Estimating Carbon Supply Curves for Global Forests and Other Land Uses Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Estimating Carbon Supply Curves for Global Forests...

  1. Black carbon contribution to global warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chylek, P.; Johnson, B.; Kou, L.; Wong, J.

    1996-12-31

    Before the onset of industrial revolution the only important source of black carbon in the atmosphere was biomass burning. Today, black carbon production is divided between the biomass and fossil fuel burning. Black carbon is a major agent responsible for absorption of solar radiation by atmospheric aerosols. Thus black carbon makes other aerosols less efficient in their role of reflecting solar radiation and cooling the earth-atmosphere system. Black carbon also contributes to the absorption of solar radiation by clouds and snow cover. The authors present the results of black carbon concentrations measurements in the atmosphere, in cloud water, in rain and snow melt water collected during the 1992--1996 time period over the southern Nova Scotia. Their results are put into the global and historical perspective by comparing them with the compilation of past measurements at diverse locations and with their measurements of black carbon concentrations in the Greenland and Antarctic ice cores. Black carbon contribution to the global warming is estimated, and compared to the carbon dioxide warming, using the radiative forcing caused by the black carbon at the top of the atmosphere.

  2. Engineering change in global climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schneider, S.H.

    1996-12-31

    {open_quotes}With increased public focus on global warming and in the wake of the intense heat waves, drought, fires, and super-hurricanes that occurred in 1988 and 1989, interest in geoengineering has surged,{close_quotes} says Stephen H. Schneider, professor of biological science at Stanford University in Stanford, California. One scheme set forth in a National Research Council report proposes using 16-inch naval guns to fire aerosol shells into the stratosphere in hopes of offsetting {open_quotes}the radiative effects of increasing carbon dioxide,{close_quotes} Schneider says. Schneider, however, would prefer that we {open_quotes}seek measures that can cure our global {open_quote}addiction{close_quote} to polluting practices.{close_quotes} Rather than playing God, he says we should {open_quotes}stick to being human and pursue problem - solving methods currently within our grasp.{close_quotes} Such strategies include efforts to promote energy efficiency and reduce our reliance on automobiles.

  3. Global change monitoring with lichens

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Insarov, G.

    1997-12-31

    Environmental monitoring involves observations and assessment of changes in ecosystems and their components caused by anthropogenetic influence. An ideal monitoring system enables quantification of the contemporary state of the environment and detect changes in it. An important function of monitoring is to assess environment quality of areas that are not affected by local anthropogenic impacts, i.e. background areas. In background areas terrestrial ecosystems are mainly affected by such anthropogenic factors as lowered air pollution and global climate change. Assessment of biotic responses to altered climatic and atmospheric conditions provides an important basis for ecosystem management and environmental decision making. Without the ability to make such assessment, sustainability of ecosystems as a support system for humans remains uncertain.

  4. Global Change Associates | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Change Associates Jump to: navigation, search Name: Global Change Associates Place: New York City, New York Zip: 10025-5657 Product: Consulting firm focusing on the convergence...

  5. Nitrogen Deposition: A Component of Global Change Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Norby, Richard J.

    1997-12-31

    The global cycles of carbon and nitrogen are being perturbed by human activities that increase the transfer from large pools of nonreactive forms of the elements to reactive forms that are essential to the functioning of the terrestrial biosphere. The cycles are closely linked at all scales, and global change analyses must consider carbon and nitrogen cycles together. The increasing amount of nitrogen originating from fossil fuel combustion and deposited to terrestrial ecosystems as nitrogen oxides could increase the capacity of ecosystems to sequester carbon thereby removing some of the excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and slowing the development of greenhouse warming. Several global and ecosystem models have calculated the amount of carbon sequestration that can be attributed to nitrogen deposition based on assumptions about the allocation of nitrogen among ecosystem components with different carbon-nitrogen ratios. They support the premise that nitrogen deposition is responsible for a an increasing terrestrial carbon sink since industrialization began, but there are large uncertainties related to the continued capacity of ecosystems to retain exogenous nitrogen. Whether terrestrial ecosystems continue to sequester additional carbon will depend in part on their response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, which is widely thought to be constrained by limited nitrogen availability. Ecosystem models generally support the conclusion that the responses of ecosystems to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide will be larger, and the range of possible responses will be wider, in ecosystems with increased nitrogen inputs originating as atmospheric deposition.

  6. Global change research: Science and policy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rayner, S.

    1993-05-01

    This report characterizes certain aspects of the Global Change Research Program of the US Government, and its relevance to the short and medium term needs of policy makers in the public and private sectors. It addresses some of the difficulties inherent in the science and policy interface on the issues of global change. Finally, this report offers some proposals for improving the science for policy process in the context of global environmental change.

  7. Global Ocean Storage of Anthropogenic Carbon (GOSAC)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orr, J C

    2002-04-02

    GOSAC was an EC-funded project (1998-2001) focused on improving the predictive capacity and accelerating development of global-scale, three-dimensional, ocean carbon-cycle models by means of standardized model evaluation and model intercomparison. Through the EC Environment and Climate Programme, GOSAC supported the participation of seven European modeling groups in the second phase of the larger international effort OCMIP (the Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project). OCMIP included model comparison and validation for both CO{sub 2} and other ocean circulation and biogeochemical tracers. Beyond the international OCMIP effort, GOSAC also supported the same EC ocean carbon cycle modeling groups to make simulations to evaluate the efficiency of purposeful sequestration of CO{sub 2} in the ocean. Such sequestration, below the thermocline has been proposed as a strategy to help mitigate the increase of CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere. Some technical and scientific highlights of GOSAC are given.

  8. Global Carbon Budget from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    The Global Carbon Project (GCP) was established in 2001 in recognition of the scientific challenge and critical importance of the carbon cycle for Earth's sustainability. The growing realization that anthropogenic climate change is a reality has focused the attention of the scientific community, policymakers and the general public on the rising concentration of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, and on the carbon cycle in general. Initial attempts, through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, are underway to slow the rate of increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These societal actions require a scientific understanding of the carbon cycle, and are placing increasing demands on the international science community to establish a common, mutually agreed knowledge base to support policy debate and action. The Global Carbon Project is responding to this challenge through a shared partnership between the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP), the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and Diversitas. This partnership constitutes the Earth Systems Science Partnership (ESSP). This CDIAC collection includes datasets, images, videos, presentations, and archived data from previous years.

  9. Can reducing black carbon emissions counteract global warming?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tami C. Bond; Haolin Sun

    2005-08-15

    Field measurements and model results have recently shown that aerosols may have important climatic impacts. One line of inquiry has investigated whether reducing climate-warming soot or black carbon aerosol emissions can form a viable component of mitigating global warming. Black carbon is produced by poor combustion, from our example hard coal cooking fires for and industrial pulverized coal boilers. The authors review and acknowledge scientific arguments against considering aerosols and greenhouse gases in a common framework, including the differences in the physical mechanisms of climate change and relevant time scales. It is argued that such a joint consideration is consistent with the language of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Results from published climate-modeling studies are synthesized to obtain a global warming potential for black carbon relative to that of CO{sub 2} (680 on a 100 year basis). This calculation enables a discussion of cost-effectiveness for mitigating the largest sources of black carbon. It is found that many emission reductions are either expensive or difficult to enact when compared with greenhouse gases, particularly in Annex I countries. Finally, a role for black carbon in climate mitigation strategies is proposed that is consistent with the apparently conflicting arguments raised during the discussion. Addressing these emissions is a promising way to reduce climatic interference primarily for nations that have not yet agreed to address greenhouse gas emissions and provides the potential for a parallel climate agreement. 31 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  10. Global environmental change: Its nature and impact

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hidore, J.J.

    1996-12-31

    This book is intended as an entry-level textbook on environmental science for nonscience majors. Twenty chapters address topics from historical geology and climatic change to population dynamics, land-use, water pollution, ozone depletion and biodiversity, global warming.

  11. Malaria and global change: Insights, uncertainties and possible surprises

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martin, P.H.; Steel, A.

    1996-12-31

    Malaria may change with global change. Indeed, global change may affect malaria risk and malaria epidemiology. Malaria risk may change in response to a greenhouse warming; malaria epidemiology, in response to the social, economic, and political developments which a greenhouse warming may trigger. To date, malaria receptivity and epidemiology futures have been explored within the context of equilibrium studies. Equilibrium studies of climate change postulate an equilibrium present climate (the starting point) and a doubled-carbon dioxide climate (the end point), simulate conditions in both instances, and compare the two. What happens while climate changes, i.e., between the starting point and the end point, is ignored. The present paper focuses on malaria receptivity and addresses what equilibrium studies miss, namely transient malaria dynamics.

  12. Strategic Analysis of the Global Status of Carbon Capture and...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Strategic Analysis of the Global Status of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): Country Studies, United Arab Emirates Focus Area: Clean Fossil Energy...

  13. A Global Technology Roadmap on Carbon Capture and Storage in...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    industry sectors, and complements ongoing technology road-mapping exercises for other key energy technologies." References "A Global Technology Roadmap on Carbon Capture and...

  14. Global Biogeochemistry Models and Global Carbon Cycle Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Covey, C; Caldeira, K; Guilderson, T; Cameron-Smith, P; Govindasamy, B; Swanston, C; Wickett, M; Mirin, A; Bader, D

    2005-05-27

    The climate modeling community has long envisioned an evolution from physical climate models to ''earth system'' models that include the effects of biology and chemistry, particularly those processes related to the global carbon cycle. The widely reproduced Box 3, Figure 1 from the 2001 IPCC Scientific Assessment schematically describes that evolution. The community generally accepts the premise that understanding and predicting global and regional climate change requires the inclusion of carbon cycle processes in models to fully simulate the feedbacks between the climate system and the carbon cycle. Moreover, models will ultimately be employed to predict atmospheric concentrations of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases as a function of anthropogenic and natural processes, such as industrial emissions, terrestrial carbon fixation, sequestration, land use patterns, etc. Nevertheless, the development of coupled climate-carbon models with demonstrable quantitative skill will require a significant amount of effort and time to understand and validate their behavior at both the process level and as integrated systems. It is important to consider objectively whether the currently proposed strategies to develop and validate earth system models are optimal, or even sufficient, and whether alternative strategies should be pursued. Carbon-climate models are going to be complex, with the carbon cycle strongly interacting with many other components. Off-line process validation will be insufficient. As was found in coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs, feedbacks between model components can amplify small errors and uncertainties in one process to produce large biases in the simulated climate. The persistent tropical western Pacific Ocean ''double ITCZ'' and upper troposphere ''cold pole'' problems are examples. Finding and fixing similar types of problems in coupled carbon-climate models especially will be difficult, given the lack of observations required for diagnosis and validation

  15. Global climate change and international security.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  16. Global climate change and international security

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  17. TRENDS '90: A compendium of data on global change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W.; Boden, T.A.; Kanciruk, P.; Farrell, M.P.

    1990-08-01

    This document is a source of frequently used global change data. This first issue includes estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and from the production of cement, historical and modern records of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and methane concentrations, and several long-term temperature records. Included are tabular and graphical presentations of the data, discussions of trends in the data, and references to publications that provide further information. Data are presented in a two-page format, each dealing with a different data set. All data are available in digital form from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

  18. ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education Program (GCEP) PIA, Office of Information Resources ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education ...

  19. ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education Program (GCEP) PIA, Office of Information Resources ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education...

  20. Financing a Global Deal on Climate Change | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Financing a Global Deal on Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Financing a Global Deal on Climate Change AgencyCompany Organization: United...

  1. Pew Center on Global Climate Change | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Pew Center on Global Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Name: Pew Center on Global Climate Change Place: Arlington, Virginia Zip: 22201 Product: Established in 1998 as a...

  2. Financing Global Climate Change Mitigation | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Climate Change Mitigation Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Financing Global Climate Change Mitigation AgencyCompany Organization: United Nations...

  3. Trends Online: A Compendium of Data on Global Change

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Trends Online provides synopses of frequently used time series of global-change data: • historical and modern records (from ice cores and current monitoring stations) of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) • atmospheric concentrations of methane • isotopic measurements (14C et al.) for atmospheric greenhouse gases • estimates of global, regional, and national CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels, gas flaring, and the production of cement • global emissions estimates for methane (CH4) • carbon flux from land-cover change • long-term temperature records, whose spatial coverage ranges from individual sites to the entire globe and from the Earth's surface to the lower stratosphere • total cloud amount over China • ecosystems (area and carbon content) Data records are presented in multipage formats, each dealing with a specific site, region, or emissions species. The data records include tables; graphs; discussions of methods for collecting, measuring, and reporting the data; trends in the data, and references to literature providing further information. Instructions for citing specific data in Trends Online are provided for each compiled data set. All data appearing in Trends Online are available, on request, on digital media from CDIAC at no cost. [Copied from the Abstract to Trends Online at http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/abstract.htm

  4. Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Science Sessions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Katzenberger, John; Kaye, Jack A

    2006-10-01

    The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) successfully organized and convened six interdisciplinary meetings over the course of award NNG04GA21G. The topics of the meetings were consistent with a range of issues, goals and objectives as described within the NASA Earth Science Enterprise Strategic Plan and more broadly by the US Global Change Research Program/Our Changing Planet, the more recent Climate Change Program Strategic Plan and the NSF Pathways report. The meetings were chaired by two or more leaders from within the disciplinary focus of each session. 222 scholars for a total of 1097 participants-days were convened under the auspices of this award. The overall goal of each AGCI session is to further the understanding of Earth system science and global environmental change through interdisciplinary dialog. The format and structure of the meetings allows for presentation by each participant, in-depth discussion by the whole group, and smaller working group and synthesis activities. The size of the group is important in terms of the group dynamics and interaction, and the ability for each participant's work to be adequately presented and discussed within the duration of the meeting, while still allowing time for synthesis

  5. COVER PLACEHOLDER Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: Climate Change, Economic

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    PLACEHOLDER Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: Climate Change, Economic Competitiveness, and Energy Security August 2016 U.S. Department of Energy SUMMARY Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies provide a key pathway to address the urgent U.S. and global need for affordable, secure, resilient, and reliable sources of clean energy. In the United States, fossil fuel-fired power plants account for 30% of total U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and will continue to be a

  6. Investigations into Wetland Carbon Sequestration as Remediation for Global Warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thom, Ronald M.; Blanton, Susan L.; Borde, Amy B.; Williams, Greg D.; Woodruff, Dana L.; Huesemann, Michael H.; KW Nehring and SE Brauning

    2002-01-01

    Wetlands can potentially sequester vast amounts of carbon. However, over 50% of wetlands globally have been degraded or lost. Restoration of wetland systems may therefore result in increased sequestration of carbon. Preliminary results of our investigations into atmospheric carbon sequestration by restored coastal wetlands indicate that carbon can be sequestered in substantial quantities in the first 2-50 years after restoration of natural hydrology and sediment accretion processes.

  7. National Institute for Global Environmental Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Werth, G.C.

    1992-04-01

    This document is the Semi-Annual Report of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change for the reporting period July 1 to December 31, 1991. The report is in two parts. Part I presents the mission of the Institute, examples of progress toward that mission, a brief description of the revised management plan, and the financial report. Part II presents the statements of the Regional Center Directors along with progress reports of the projects written by the researchers themselves.

  8. Global Impacts (Carbon Cycle 2.0)

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gadgil, Ashok [EETD and UC Berkeley

    2011-06-08

    Ashok Gadgil, Faculty Senior Scientist and Acting Director, EETD, also Professor of Environmental Engineering, UC Berkeley, speaks at the Carbon Cycle 2.0 kick-off symposium Feb. 2, 2010. We emit more carbon into the atmosphere than natural processes are able to remove - an imbalance with negative consequences. Carbon Cycle 2.0 is a Berkeley Lab initiative to provide the science needed to restore this balance by integrating the Labs diverse research activities and delivering creative solutions toward a carbon-neutral energy future. http://carboncycle2.lbl.gov/

  9. Global Climate Change Alliance Training Workshops on Mainstreaming...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Change Alliance Training Workshops on Mainstreaming Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Global Climate Change Alliance Training Workshop on...

  10. Global fish production and climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brander, K.M.

    2007-12-11

    Current global fisheries production of {approx}160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but there is low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are giverned by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipiation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the pricipal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

  11. Climate Models from the Joint Global Change Research Institute

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Staff at the Joint Institute develop and use models to simulate the economic and physical impacts of global change policy options. The GCAM, for example, gives analysts insight into how regional and national economies might respond to climate change mitigation policies including carbon taxes, carbon trading, and accelerated deployment of energy technology. Three available models are Phoenix, GCAM, and EPIC. Phoenix is a global, dynamic recursive, computable general equilibrium model that is solved in five-year time steps from 2005 through 2100 and divides the world into twenty-four regions. Each region includes twenty-six industrial sectors. Particular attention is paid to energy production in Phoenix. There are nine electricity-generating technologies (coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal) and four additional energy commodities: crude oil, refined oil products, coal, and natural gas. Phoenix is designed to answer economic questions related to international climate and energy policy and international trade. Phoenix replaces the Second Generation Model (SGM) that was formerly used for general equilibrium analysis at JGCRI. GCAM is the Global Change Assessment Model, a partial equilibrium model of the world with 14 regions. GCAM operates in 5 year time steps from 1990 to 2095 and is designed to examine long-term changes in the coupled energy, agriculture/land-use, and climate system. GCAM includes a 151-region agriculture land-use module and a reduced form carbon cycle and climate module in addition to its incorporation of demographics, resources, energy production and consumption. The model has been used extensively in a number of assessment and modeling activities such as the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and IPCC assessment reports. GCAM is now freely available as a community model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) Model

  12. Financing Innovation to Address Global Climate Change | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Financing Innovation to Address Global Climate Change Financing Innovation to Address Global Climate Change DOE-LPO_Report_Financing-Innovation-Climate-Change.pdf (1.97 MB) More Documents & Publications LPO Financial Performance Report PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE Financing Innovation to Address Global Climate Change Powering New Markets: Utility-scale Photovoltaic Solar

  13. TRENDS 1991: A compendium of data on global change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W.

    1991-12-01

    This document is a source of frequently used global-change data. This second issue of the Trends series expands the coverage of sites recording atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and methane (CH{sub 4}), and it updates records reported in the first issue. New data for other trace atmospheric gases have been included in this issue; historical data on nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}) from ice cores, modern records of atmospheric concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and CFC-12) and N{sub 2}O, and estimates of global estimates of CFC-11 and CFC-12. The estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, the production of cement, and gas flaring have been revised and updated. Regional CO{sub 2} emission estimates have been added, and long-term temperature records have been updated and expanded. Data records are presented in four- to six-page formats, each dealing with a specific site, region, or emissions species. The data records include tables and graphs; discussion of methods for collecting, measuring, and reporting the data; trends in the data; and references to literature that provides further information. All data appearing in the document are available on digital media from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

  14. Biogenic carbon fluxes from global agricultural production and consumption

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wolf, Julie; West, Tristram O.; Le Page, Yannick LB; Kyle, G. Page; Zhang, Xuesong; Collatz, George; Imhoff, Marc L.

    2015-10-01

    Quantification of biogenic carbon fluxes from agricultural lands is needed to generate comprehensive bottom-up estimates of net carbon exchange for global and regional carbon monitoring. We estimated global agricultural carbon fluxes associated with annual crop net primary production (NPP), harvested biomass, and consumption of biomass by humans and livestock. These estimates were combined for a single estimate of net carbon exchange (NCE) and spatially distributed to 0.05 degree resolution using MODIS satellite land cover data. Global crop NPP in 2011 was estimated at 5.25 ± 0.46 Pg C yr-1, of which 2.05 ± 0.05 Pg C yr-1 was harvested and 0.54 Pg C yr-1 was collected from crop residues for livestock fodder. Total livestock feed intake in 2011 was 2.42 ± 0.21 Pg C yr-1, of which 2.31 ± 0.21 Pg C yr-1 was emitted as CO2, 0.07 ± 0.01 Pg C yr-1 was emitted as CH4, and 0.04 Pg C yr-1 was contained within milk and egg production. Livestock grazed an estimated 1.27 Pg C yr-1 in 2011, which constituted 52.4% of total feed intake. Global human food intake was 0.57 ± 0.03 Pg C yr-1 in 2011, the majority of which is respired as CO2. Completed global cropland carbon budgets accounted for the ultimate use of ca. 80% of harvested biomass. The spatial distribution of these fluxes may be used for global carbon monitoring, estimation of regional uncertainty, and for use as input to Earth system models.

  15. ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education Program (GCEP)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    PIA, Office of Information Resources | Department of Energy ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education Program (GCEP) PIA, Office of Information Resources ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education Program (GCEP) PIA, Office of Information Resources ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education Program (GCEP) PIA, Office of Information Resources ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education Program (GCEP) PIA, Office of

  16. From global change science to action with social sciences

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weaver, C. P.; Mooney, Sian; Allen, D.; Beller-Simms, Nancy; Fish, T.; Grambsch, A.; Hohenstein, W.; Jacobs, Kathy; Kenney, Melissa A.; Lane, Meredith A.; Langner, L.; Larson, E.; McGinnis, D. L.; Moss, Richard H.; Nichols, L. G.; Nierenberg, Claudia; Seyller, E. A.; Stern, Paul; Winthrop, R.

    2014-08-01

    US efforts to integrate social and biophysical sciences to address the issue of global change exist within a wider movement to understand global change as a societal challenge and to inform policy. Insights from the social sciences can help transform global change research into action.

  17. Global climate change and the mitigation challenge

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Frank Princiotta

    2009-10-15

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations, very likely the primary cause of the 0.8{sup o}C warming the Earth has experienced since the Industrial Revolution. With industrial activity and population expected to increase for the rest of the century, large increases in greenhouse gas emissions are projected, with substantial global additional warming predicted. This paper examines forces driving CO{sub 2} emissions, a concise sector-by-sector summary of mitigation options, and research and development (R&D) priorities. To constrain warming to below approximately 2.5{sup o}C in 2100, the recent annual 3% CO{sub 2} emission growth rate needs to transform rapidly to an annual decrease rate of from 1 to 3% for decades. Furthermore, the current generation of energy generation and end-use technologies are capable of achieving less than half of the emission reduction needed for such a major mitigation program. New technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate, especially for the key power generation and transportation sectors. Current energy technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) programs fall far short of what is required. 20 refs., 18 figs., 4 tabs.

  18. Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector 2002 DEER Conference ...

  19. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Richardson, Andrew D.

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  20. Global climate change crosses state boundaries

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Changnon, S.A.

    1996-12-31

    The hot, dry summer of 1988 brought the specter of global warming a bit too close for comfort. {open_quotes}Scorching heat, not scientific models, attracted media attention,{close_quotes} says Stanley A. Changnon, senior scientist with the Illinois State Water Survey in Champaign, Illinois. Rising temperatures in the late 1980`s prompted individual states to begin to take action to curb greenhouse-gas emissions. A 1990 report by the National Governors Association identified two guiding principles for addressing climate change issues. {open_quotes}First, that energy policy must be at the center of any efforts to control greenhouse-gas emissions. Second, that state can...restrict emissions through state policies related to public utilities, land use, transportation, and even taxation,{close_quotes} Changnon says. Even if concerns for global warming prove to be overblown, states decided to act for broader economic and environmental reasons. Such initiatives not only save money, but they improve air quality and leave the nation more energy independent,{close_quotes} Changnon says.

  1. White House Conference on Global Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-11-01

    President Clinton has directed the White House office on Environmental Policy to coordinate an interagency process to develop a plan to fulfill the commitment he made in his Earth Day address on April 21, 1993. This plan will become the cornerstone of the Climate Change Plan that will be completed shortly after the Rio Accord enters into force. The Office on Environmental Policy established the Interagency Climate Change Mitigation Group to draw on the expertise of federal agencies including the National Economic Council; the Council of Economic Advisors; the Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Office of Management and Budget; the National Security Council; the Domestic Policy Council; the Environmental Protection Agency; and the Departments of Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Interior, Treasury, Commerce, and State. Working groups have been established to examine six key policy areas: energy demand, energy supply, joint implementation, methane and other gases, sinks, and transportation. The purpose of the White House Conference on Global Climate Change was to ``tap the real-world experiences`` of diverse participants and seek ideas and information for meeting the President`s goals. During the opening session, senior administration officials defined the challenge ahead and encouraged open and frank conversation about the best possible ways to meet it.

  2. Changing Global Petroleum Product Trade Flows

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    OECD/IEA 2014 © OECD/IEA 2014 Antoine Halff 2014 EIA Energy Conference Changing Global Petroleum Product Trade Flows Washington, DC July 14, 2014 © OECD/IEA 2014 Crude trade shifts further east  Asia imports increase by 2.6 mb/d to 22.1 mb, or 65% of the international crude market Crude Exports in 2019 and Growth in 2013-19 for Key Trade Routes 1 (million barrels per day) 0.2 0.3 (0) 2.0 (0.2) (-0.6) 4.1 (-0.6) 0.1 (-0.7) 3.1 1.2 (0.3) 1.0 (+0.1) -0.6 2.2 1.8 (+0.8) (-0.6) 1.1 (+0.3) Red

  3. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanson, H.P.

    1994-09-01

    This research is ultimately concerned with investigating the hypothesis that changes in surface thermal and hydrological forcing of the North Atlantic, changes that might be expected to accompany CO2-induced global warming, could result in ocean-atmosphere interactions` exerting a positive feedback on the climate system. This report concerns research conducted with funding from the Carbon Dioxide Research Program (now the Global Climate Change Program) of the US Department of Energy via grant no. DE-FG02-90ER61019 during the period 15 July 1990 - 14 July 1994. This was a three-year award, extended to a fourth year (15 July 1993 - 14 July 1994) via a no-cost extension. It is important to emphasize that this award has been renewed for an additional two years (15 July 1993 - 14 July 1995) via grant no. DE-FG03-93ER61646 (with the same title). Because the project was originally envisioned to be a five-year effort, many of the important results and conclusions will be available for the Final Report of that second award. This report therefore concerns mainly preliminary conclusions and a discussion of progress toward understanding the central hypothesis of the research.

  4. Soil carbon sequestration and land use change associated with...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Soil carbon sequestration and land use change associated with biofuel production: empirical evidence Title Soil carbon sequestration and land use change associated with biofuel...

  5. Toward Low Carbon and Climate Change Resilient Territories |...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Toward Low Carbon and Climate Change Resilient Territories Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Toward Low Carbon and Climate Change Resilient Territories...

  6. Global Change Research: Summaries of research in FY 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-10-01

    This document describes the activities and products of the Global Research Program in FY 1993. This publication describes all of the projects funded by the Environmental Sciences Division of DOE under annual contracts, grants, and interagency agreements in FY 1993. Each description contains the project`s title; its 3-year funding history (in thousands of dollars); the period over which the funding applies; the name(s) of the principal investigator(s); the institution(s) conducting the projects; and the project`s objectives, products, approach, and results to date (for most projects older than 1 year). Project descriptions are categorized within the report according to program areas: climate modeling, quantitative links, global carbon cycle, vegetation research, ocean research, economics of global climate change, education, information and integration, and NIGEC. Within these categories, the descriptions are grouped alphabetically by principal investigator. Each program area is preceded by a brief text that defines the program area, states its goals and objectives, lists principal research questions, and identifies program managers.

  7. Building a Global Low-Carbon Technology Pathway

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    At COP 20 in Lima, Peru, Department of Energy staff will discuss actions we're taking to help implement the United States' commitments to fight global climate change.

  8. From Microbes to Global Carbon Models | U.S. DOE Office of Science...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Understanding microbial community processes improves predictions of soil carbon dynamics. ... from Wieder, Bonan, and Allison. "Global soil carbon projections are improved by ...

  9. PNNL: Atmospheric Sciences & Global Change Search for Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Atmospheric Science & Global Change Search for Staff Search for an ASGC staff member (Last, First) Search Search for staff member by Group View Alphabetical List of all ASGC Staff (may take a moment to load) Atmospheric Sciences & Global Change ASGC Home Our Research Facilities Measurement Capabilities Modeling Expertise Staff & Organization Search Publications Job Opportunities Seminar Series Frontiers in Global Change Science at PNNL Home Journal Cover Gallery Search Site Search

  10. ORNL Global Change and Developing Country Programs | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Oak Ridge National Laboratory Sector Energy Website http:www.esd.ornl.goveessg References Global Change 1 "For more than twenty years, ORNL has been active in energy...

  11. Climate Induced Changes in Biogenic Emissions: Global Chemical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Sponsoring Org: USDOE Country of Publication: United States Language: English Subject: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CLIMATIC CHANGE; EMISSION; PLANTS; ANIMALS; GLOBAL ASPECTS; ...

  12. U.S. Global Change Research Program publishes "National Climate...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    U.S. Global Change Research Program publishes "National Climate Assessment" report for United States Home > Groups > OpenEI Community Central Graham7781's picture Submitted by...

  13. Global Climate Change: Risk to Bank Loans | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Risk to Bank Loans Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Global Climate Change: Risk to Bank Loans AgencyCompany Organization: United Nations...

  14. Joint Global Change Research Institute | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    solutions. Joint Institute staff bring decades of experience and expertise to bear in science, technology, economics, and policy. "The Joint Global Change Research Institute...

  15. National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment Energy and Climate Change

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment: Energy and Climate Change will develop and advance partnerships that focus on transitioning the world to a new "low carbon" and "climate resilient" energy system. It will emphasize putting ideas into action - moving forward on policy and practice.

  16. Global environmental change: Modifying human contributions through education

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carter, L.M.

    1997-12-31

    The 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Science report concludes that evidence now available {open_quotes}points toward a discernible human influence on global climate{close_quotes}. Reductions in emissions will require changes in human behavior. Knowledge, often through education, is an important moderator of human environmental behavior. This study assessed whether gains in global environmental change knowledge would lead to changes in human behaviors that could be deemed environmentally responsible.

  17. Global climate change: Mitigation opportunities high efficiency large chiller technology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stanga, M.V.

    1997-12-31

    This paper, comprised of presentation viewgraphs, examines the impact of high efficiency large chiller technology on world electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. Background data are summarized, and sample calculations are presented. Calculations show that presently available high energy efficiency chiller technology has the ability to substantially reduce energy consumption from large chillers. If this technology is widely implemented on a global basis, it could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 65 million tons by 2010.

  18. Review of economic and energy sector implications of adopting global climate change policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Novak, M.H.

    1997-12-31

    This paper summarizes a number of studies examining potential economic impacts of global climate change policies. Implications for the United States as a whole, the U.S. energy sector, the U.S. economy, businesses and consumers, and world economies are considered. Impact assessments are performed of U.S. carbon emissions, carbon taxes, and carbon restrictions by comparing estimates from various organizations. The following conclusions were made from the economic studies: (1) the economic cost of carbon abatement is expensive; (2) the cost of unilateral action is very expensive with little quantifiable evidence that global emissions are reduced; (3) multilateral actions of developed countries are also very expensive, but there is quantifiable evidence of global emissions reductions; and (4) global actions have only been theoretically addressed. Paralleling these findings, the energy analyses show that the U.S. is technologically unprepared to give up fossil fuels. As a result: (1) carbon is not stabilized without a high tax, (2) stabilization of carbon is elusive, (3) technology is the only long-term answer, and (4) targeted programs may be appropriate to force technology development. 8 tabs.

  19. Nitrogen attenuation of terrestrial carbon cycle response to global environmental factors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jain, Atul; Yang, Xiaojuan; Kheshgi, Haroon; Mcguire, David; Post, Wilfred M

    2009-01-01

    Nitrogen cycle dynamics have the capacity to attenuate the magnitude of global terrestrial carbon sinks and sources driven by CO2 fertilization and changes in climate. In this study, two versions of the terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycle components of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) are used to evaluate how variation in nitrogen availability influences terrestrial carbon sinks and sources in response to changes over the 20th century in global environmental factors including atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen inputs, temperature, precipitation and land use. The two versions of ISAM vary in their treatment of nitrogen availability: ISAM-NC has a terrestrial carbon cycle model coupled to a fully dynamic nitrogen cycle while ISAM-C has an identical carbon cycle model but nitrogen availability is always in sufficient supply. Overall, the two versions of the model estimate approximately the same amount of global mean carbon uptake over the 20th century. However, comparisons of results of ISAM-NC relative to ISAM-C reveal that nitrogen dynamics: (1) reduced the 1990s carbon sink associated with increasing atmospheric CO2 by 0.53 PgC yr1 (1 Pg = 1015g), (2) reduced the 1990s carbon source associated with changes in temperature and precipitation of 0.34 PgC yr1 in the 1990s, (3) an enhanced sink associated with nitrogen inputs by 0.26 PgC yr1, and (4) enhanced the 1990s carbon source associated with changes in land use by 0.08 PgC yr1 in the 1990s. These effects of nitrogen limitation influenced the spatial distribution of the estimated exchange of CO2 with greater sink activity in high latitudes associated with climate effects and a smaller sink of CO2 in the southeastern United States caused by N limitation associated with both CO2 fertilization and forest regrowth. These results indicate that the dynamics of nitrogen availability are important to consider in assessing the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of terrestrial carbon sources and

  20. Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Transportation Sector | Department of Energy Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector 2002 DEER Conference Presentation: Joint Global Change Research Institute - Battelle 2002_deer_dooley.pdf (999.14 KB) More Documents & Publications There is no Silver Bullet: Regionalization and Market Fragmentation in Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies EAC Presentation - Roadmap 2050:

  1. Evaluation of Black Carbon Estimations in Global Aerosol Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koch, D.; Schulz, M.; Kinne, Stefan; McNaughton, C. S.; Spackman, J. R.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S.; Berntsen, T.; Bond, Tami C.; Boucher, Olivier; Chin, M.; Clarke, A. D.; De Luca, N.; Dentener, F.; Diehl, T.; Dubovik, O.; Easter, Richard C.; Fahey, D. W.; Feichter, J.; Fillmore, D.; Freitag, S.; Ghan, Steven J.; Ginoux, P.; Gong, S.; Horowitz, L.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevag, A.; Klimont, Z.; Kondo, Yutaka; Krol, M.; Liu, Xiaohong; Miller, R.; Montanaro, V.; Moteki, N.; Myhre, G.; Penner, J.; Perlwitz, Ja; Pitari, G.; Reddy, S.; Sahu, L.; Sakamoto, H.; Schuster, G.; Schwarz, J. P.; Seland, O.; Stier, P.; Takegawa, Nobuyuki; Takemura, T.; Textor, C.; van Aardenne, John; Zhao, Y.

    2009-11-27

    We evaluate black carbon (BC) model predictions from the AeroCom model intercomparison project by considering the diversity among year 2000 model simulations and comparing model predictions with available measurements. These model-measurement intercomparisons include BC surface and aircraft concentrations, aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) from AERONET and OMI retrievals and BC column estimations based on AERONET. In regions other than Asia, most models are biased high compared to surface concentration measurements. However compared with (column) AAOD or BC burden retreivals, the models are generally biased low. The average ratio of model to retrieved AAOD is less than 0.7 in South American and 0.6 in African biomass burning regions; both of these regions lack surface concentration measurements. In Asia the average model to observed ratio is 0.6 for AAOD and 0.5 for BC surface concentrations. Compared with aircraft measurements over the Americas at latitudes between 0 and 50N, the average model is a factor of 10 larger than observed, and most models exceed the measured BC standard deviation in the mid to upper troposphere. At higher latitudes the average model to aircraft BC is 0.6 and underestimate the observed BC loading in the lower and middle troposphere associated with springtime Arctic haze. Low model bias for AAOD but overestimation of surface and upper atmospheric BC concentrations at lower latitudes suggests that most models are underestimating BC absorption and should improve estimates for refractive index, particle size, and optical effects of BC coating. Retrieval uncertainties and/or differences with model diagnostic treatment may also contribute to the model-measurement disparity. Largest AeroCom model diversity occurred in northern Eurasia and the remote Arctic, regions influenced by anthropogenic sources. Changing emissions, aging, removal, or optical properties within a single model generated a smaller change in model predictions than the

  2. Illinois task force on global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Griffin, B.S.

    1996-12-31

    The purpose of this report is to document progress in the areas of national policy development, emissions reduction, research and education, and adaptation, and to identify specific actions that will be undertaken to implement the Illinois state action plan. The task force has been tracking national and international climate change policy, and helping shape national policy agenda. Identification and implementation of cost-effective mitigation measures has been performed for emissions reduction. In the area of research and education, the task force is developing the capacity to measure climate change indicators, maintaining and enhancing Illinois relevant research, and strengthening climate change education. Activities relevant to adaptation to new policy include strengthening water laws and planning for adaptation. 6 figs., 4 tabs.

  3. Global Climate Change Assessment Report Shows Nations Not Doing...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Climate Change Assessment Report Shows Nations Not Doing Enough Home > Blogs > Dc's blog Dc's picture Submitted by Dc(266) Contributor 5 November, 2014 - 14:49 The latest...

  4. Global warming and the future of coal carbon capture and storage

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ken Berlin; Robert M. Sussman

    2007-05-15

    The paper considers how best to change the economic calculus of power plant developers so they internalize CCS costs when selecting new generation technologies. Five policy tools are analyzed: establishing a greenhouse gas cap-and-trade program; imposing carbon taxes; defining CCS systems as a so-called Best Available Control Technology for new power plants under the USA Clean Air Act's New Source Review program; developing a 'low carbon portfolio' standard that requires utilities to provide an increasing proportion of power from low-carbon generation sources over time; and requiring all new coal power plants to meet an 'emission performance' standard that limits CO{sub 2} emissions to levels achievable with CCS systems. Each of these tools has advantages and drawbacks but an emission performance standard for new power plants is likely to be most effective in spurring broad-scale adoption of CCS systems. Chapter headings are: global warming and the future of coal; new coal-fired power plants threaten all other efforts to combat global warming; a potential path to zero emissions through carbon capture and storage; CO{sub 2} capture at coal plants: the promise of IGCC and other technologies; barriers to commercialization of IGCC technology; crossing the chasm: a new policy framework to push ccs implementation forward; encouraging CCS systems with carbon caps and trading programs; using the existing Clean Air Act to require CCS systems for new coal plants; retail low carbon portfolio standard; carbon tax; emission performance standards for new coal power plants; and conclusions. 16 figs.

  5. The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page; Zhang, Xuesong; Bandaru, Varaprasad; West, Tristram O.; Wise, Marshall A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-19

    Land use change is a complex response to changing environmental and socioeconomic systems. Historical drivers of land use change include changes in the natural resource availability of a region, changes in economic conditions for production of certain products and changing policies. Most recently, introduction of policy incentives for biofuel production have influenced land use change in the US Midwest, leading to concerns that bioenergy production systems may compete with food production and land conservation. Here we explore how land use may be impacted by future climate mitigation measures by nesting a high resolution agricultural model (EPIC Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) for the US Midwest within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM Global Change Assessment Model). This approach is designed to provide greater spatial resolution and detailed agricultural practice information by focusing on the climate mitigation potential of agriculture and land use in a specific region, while retaining the global economic context necessary to understand the far ranging effects of climate mitigation targets. We find that until the simulated carbon prices are very high, the US Midwest has a comparative advantage in producing traditional food and feed crops over bioenergy crops. Overall, the model responds to multiple pressures by adopting a mix of future responses. We also find that the GCAM model is capable of simulations at multiple spatial scales and agricultural technology resolution, which provides the capability to examine regional response to global policy and economic conditions in the context of climate mitigation.

  6. Chasing a specter: Risk management for global environmental change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    O'Riordan, T. ); Rayner, S. )

    1989-10-01

    Global environmental change is both a concept and a process that changes in meaning with scientific discovery, public concern, and political responsiveness. It is the relationship between the problems as perceived and the various institutions that help shape and adapt to such problems that defines global environmental change. There is a kind of race between scientific detective work and political adjustment to lessen the likely impacts that predictive science is trying to verify. Risk analysis, because of its capacity to recognize this relationship in many spheres of problem identification, can contribute to the political debate, mostly by proposing institutional redesign of the relationship among scientific research, public entry, and experimental readjustments to consensus formation and international action. This paper discusses the factors involved in global environmental change, the risk management involved, the holistic interpretation, and the environmental impacts. 21 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs.

  7. Global Coastal Carbon Program Data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    CDIAC provides data management support for the Global Coastal Carbon Data Project. The coastal regions data are very important for the understanding of carbon cycle on the continental margins. The Coastal Project data include the bottle (discrete) and surface (underway) carbon-related measurements from coastal research cruises, the data from time series cruises, and coastal moorings. The data from US East Coast, US West Coast, and European Coastal areas are available. CDIAC provides a map interface with vessel or platform names. Clicking on the name brings up information about the vessel or the scientific platform, the kinds of measurements collected and the timeframe, links to project pages, when available, and the links to the data files themselves.

  8. Global climate change: A strategic issue facing Illinois

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Womeldorff, P.J.

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses global climate change, summarizes activities related to climate change, and identifies possible outcomes of the current debate on the subject. Aspects of climate change related to economic issues are very briefly summarized; it is suggested that the end result will be a change in lifestyle in developed countries. International activities, with an emphasis on the Framework Convention on Climate Change, and U.S. activities are outlined. It is recommended that the minimum action required is to work to understand the issue and prepare for possible action.

  9. Future generations, environmental ethics, and global environmental change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tonn, B.E.

    1994-12-31

    The elements of a methodology to be employed by the global community to investigate the consequences of global environmental change upon future generations and global ecosystems are outlined in this paper. The methodology is comprised of two major components: A possible future worlds model; and a formal, citizen-oriented process to judge whether the possible future worlds potentially inheritable by future generations meet obligational standards. A broad array of descriptors of future worlds can be encompassed within this framework, including survival of ecosystems and other species and satisfaction of human concerns. The methodology expresses fundamental psychological motivations and human myths journey, renewal, mother earth, and being-in-nature-and incorporates several viewpoints on obligations to future generations-maintaining options, fairness, humility, and the cause of humanity. The methodology overcomes several severe drawbacks of the economic-based methods most commonly used for global environmental policy analysis.

  10. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  11. Models of carbon flow in tropical ecosystems with emphasis on their role in the global carbon cycle. Final report, September 15, 1978-September 14, 1980

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, S.; Lugo, A.E.

    1980-01-01

    The role of tropical forests on the carbon balance of the world is studied with four different approaches: (1) to quantify the area of tropical forests and the changes in forest cover; (2) to calculate the storage and production of organic carbon in tropical forests; (3) the modelling of land use changes in tropical countries using computer simulation models; and (4) the synthesis of information from many sources into conceptual schemes using Life Zone and energy use concepts. Results are not yet conclusive but indicate that tropical forests play a significant role in the global carbon cycle, and they are likely to be small sources of carbon to the atmosphere. The basis for this statement is: (1) the large area of tropical forests do not appear to be changing as fast as suggested earlier; (2) the storage of carbon in the tropics is about one half as previously suggested; (3) the turnover of carbon in the tropics is very fast with large exports to the ocean via rivers; and (4) models of land use change using data from Bolivia show only a small net addition of carbon to the atmosphere.

  12. Threshold responses to interacting global changes in a California grassland ecosystem

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Field, Christopher; Cortinas, Susan

    2015-02-02

    Final Report for Threshold responses to interacting global changes in a California grassland ecosystem

  13. A Data-Centered Collaboration Portal to Support Global Carbon-Flux Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Agarwal, Deborah A.; Humphrey, Marty; Beekwilder, Norm; Jackson, Keith; Goode, Monte; van Ingen, Catharine

    2009-04-07

    Carbon-climate, like other environmental sciences, has been changing. Large-scalesynthesis studies are becoming more common. These synthesis studies are often conducted by science teams that are geographically distributed and on datasets that are global in scale. A broad array of collaboration and data analytics tools are now available that could support these science teams. However, building tools that scientists actually use is hard. Also, moving scientists from an informal collaboration structure to one mediated by technology often exposes inconsistencies in the understanding of the rules of engagement between collaborators. We have developed a scientific collaboration portal, called fluxdata.org, which serves the community of scientists providing and analyzing the global FLUXNET carbon-flux synthesis dataset. Key things we learned or re-learned during our portal development include: minimize the barrier to entry, provide features on a just-in-time basis, development of requirements is an on-going process, provide incentives to change leaders and leverage the opportunity they represent, automate as much as possible, and you can only learn how to make it better if people depend on it enough to give you feedback. In addition, we also learned that splitting the portal roles between scientists and computer scientists improved user adoption and trust. The fluxdata.org portal has now been in operation for ~;;1.5 years and has become central to the FLUXNET synthesis efforts.

  14. The economics of long-term global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-09-01

    This report is intended to provide an overview of economic issues and research relevant to possible, long-term global climate change. It is primarily a critical survey, not a statement of Administration or Department policy. This report should serve to indicate that economic analysis of global change is in its infancy few assertions about costs or benefits can be made with confidence. The state of the literature precludes any attempt to produce anything like a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis. Moreover, almost all the quantitative estimates regarding physical and economic effects in this report, as well as many of the qualitative assertions, are controversial. Section I provides background on greenhouse gas emissions and their likely climatic effects and on available policy instruments. Section II considers the costs of living with global change, assuming no substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Section III considers costs of reducing these emissions, though the available literature does not contain estimates of the costs of policies that would, on the assumptions of current climate models, prevent climate change altogether. The individual sections are not entirely compartmentalized, but can be read independently if necessary.

  15. Formulating Energy Policies Related to Fossil Fuel Use: Critical Uncertainties in the Global Carbon Cycle

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Post, W. M.; Dale, V. H.; DeAngelis, D. L.; Mann, L. K.; Mulholland, P. J.; O`Neill, R. V.; Peng, T. -H.; Farrell, M. P.

    1990-02-01

    The global carbon cycle is the dynamic interaction among the earth's carbon sources and sinks. Four reservoirs can be identified, including the atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere, oceans, and sediments. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is determined by characteristics of carbon fluxes among major reservoirs of the global carbon cycle. The objective of this paper is to document the knowns, and unknowns and uncertainties associated with key questions that if answered will increase the understanding of the portion of past, present, and future atmospheric CO{sub 2} attributable to fossil fuel burning. Documented atmospheric increases in CO{sub 2} levels are thought to result primarily from fossil fuel use and, perhaps, deforestation. However, the observed atmospheric CO{sub 2} increase is less than expected from current understanding of the global carbon cycle because of poorly understood interactions among the major carbon reservoirs.

  16. Integrating Natural Gas Hydrates in the Global Carbon Cycle

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    David Archer; Bruce Buffett

    2011-12-31

    We produced a two-dimensional geological time- and basin-scale model of the sedimentary margin in passive and active settings, for the simulation of the deep sedimentary methane cycle including hydrate formation. Simulation of geochemical data required development of parameterizations for bubble transport in the sediment column, and for the impact of the heterogeneity in the sediment pore fluid flow field, which represent new directions in modeling methane hydrates. The model is somewhat less sensitive to changes in ocean temperature than our previous 1-D model, due to the different methane transport mechanisms in the two codes (pore fluid flow vs. bubble migration). The model is very sensitive to reasonable changes in organic carbon deposition through geologic time, and to details of how the bubbles migrate, in particular how efficiently they are trapped as they rise through undersaturated or oxidizing chemical conditions and the hydrate stability zone. The active margin configuration reproduces the elevated hydrate saturations observed in accretionary wedges such as the Cascadia Margin, but predicts a decrease in the methane inventory per meter of coastline relative to a comparable passive margin case, and a decrease in the hydrate inventory with an increase in the plate subduction rate.

  17. Carbon Cycle 2.0: Ashok Gadgil: global impact

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Ashok Gadgi

    2010-09-01

    Ashok Gadgil speaks at the Carbon Cycle 2.0 kick-off symposium Feb. 2, 2010. We emit more carbon into the atmosphere than natural processes are able to remove - an imbalance with negative consequences. Carbon Cycle 2.0 is a Berkeley Lab initiative to provide the science needed to restore this balance by integrating the Labs diverse research activities and delivering creative solutions toward a carbon-neutral energy future. http://carboncycle2.lbl.gov/

  18. Relative outcomes of climate change mitigation related to global

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    temperature versus sea-level rise | Argonne Leadership Computing Facility Relative outcomes of climate change mitigation related to global temperature versus sea-level rise Authors: Gerald A. Meehl, Aixue Hu, Claudia Tebaldi, Julie M. Arblaster, Warren M. Washington, Haiyan Teng, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Toby Ault, Warren G. Strand & James B. White III There is a common perception that, if human societies make the significant adjustments necessary to substantively cut emissions of

  19. Innovating to Change Paradigm of Manufacturing | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Innovating Around the Clock to Change the Paradigm of Manufacturing Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window) Share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Click to share (Opens in new window) Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window) Innovating Around the Clock to Change the Paradigm of Manufacturing Christine M. Furstoss 2014.03.24 When you're part of a global company that operates multiple R&D sites around the world, the engine

  20. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and the Global Carbon Cycle: The Key Uncertainties

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Peng, T. H.; Post, W. M.; DeAngelis, D. L.; Dale, V. H.; Farrell, M. P.

    1987-12-01

    The biogeochemical cycling of carbon between its sources and sinks determines the rate of increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations. The observed increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} content is less than the estimated release from fossil fuel consumption and deforestation. This discrepancy can be explained by interactions between the atmosphere and other global carbon reservoirs such as the oceans, and the terrestrial biosphere including soils. Undoubtedly, the oceans have been the most important sinks for CO{sub 2} produced by man. But, the physical, chemical, and biological processes of oceans are complex and, therefore, credible estimates of CO{sub 2} uptake can probably only come from mathematical models. Unfortunately, one- and two-dimensional ocean models do not allow for enough CO{sub 2} uptake to accurately account for known releases. Thus, they produce higher concentrations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} than was historically the case. More complex three-dimensional models, while currently being developed, may make better use of existing tracer data than do one- and two-dimensional models and will also incorporate climate feedback effects to provide a more realistic view of ocean dynamics and CO{sub 2} fluxes. The instability of current models to estimate accurately oceanic uptake of CO{sub 2} creates one of the key uncertainties in predictions of atmospheric CO{sub 2} increases and climate responses over the next 100 to 200 years.

  1. The Impact of Global Warming on the Carbon Cycle of Arctic Permafrost...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Technical Report: The Impact of Global Warming on the Carbon Cycle of Arctic Permafrost: An Experimental and Field Based Study Citation Details In-Document Search Title: The Impact...

  2. (Meeting on human dimensions of global environmental change)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rayner, S.

    1990-12-18

    Traveler attended the meeting of the Standing Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change of the International Social Science Council (ISSC) and the Scientific Symposium organized by the Standing Committee. The purpose of the meeting and symposium was to discuss the Draft Framework and the Workplan of the Standing Committee prior to its presentation to the 1990 Congress of the ISSC on November 28--30, 1990. The meetings indicate that ORNL Global Environmental Studies Center is on the international leading edge of human dimensions research, except in the area of human dimensions data systems. This weakness could be rectified by close collaboration with the efforts of the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) in Michigan.

  3. Ocean Carbon Cycle Data from the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    The U.S. JGOFS program, a component of the U.S Global Change Research Program, grew out of the recommendations of a National Academy of Sciences workshop in 1984. An ambitious goal was set to understand the controls on the concentrations and fluxes of carbon and associated nutrients in the ocean. A new field of ocean biogeochemistry emerged with an emphasis on quality measurements of carbon system parameters and interdisciplinary field studies of the biological, chemical and physical process which control the ocean carbon cycle. U.S. JGOFS, ended in 2005 with the conclusion of the Synthesis and Modeling Project (SMP). Data are available throughout the U.S. JGOFS web site at http://usjgofs.whoi.edu/ and from the U.S. JGOFS Data System at http://usjgofs.whoi.edu/jg/dir/jgofs/. Major named segments of the project are: Bermuda Atlantic Time Series (BATS) Study, Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT) Study, Equatorial Pacific Process Study, North Atlantic Bloom Experiment (1989), Arabian Sea Process Study, and the Southern Ocean Process Study.

  4. Global Carbon Fiber Composites Supply Chain Competitiveness Analysis

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This analysis identifies key opportunities in the carbon fiber supply chain where resources and investments can help advance the clean energy economy. The report focuses on four application areas...

  5. THE IMPACT OF THERMAL ENGINEERING RESEARCH ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phelan, Patrick; Abdelaziz, Omar; Otanicar, Todd; Phelan, Bernadette; Prasher, Ravi; Taylor, Robert; Tyagi, Himanshu

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change is recognized by many people around the world as being one of the most pressing issues facing our society today. The thermal engineering research community clearly plays an important role in addressing this critical issue, but what kind of thermal engineering research is, or will be, most impactful? In other words, in what directions should thermal engineering research be targeted in order to derive the greatest benefit with respect to global climate change? To answer this question we consider the potential reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, coupled with potential economic impacts, resulting from thermal engineering research. Here a new model framework is introduced that allows a technological, sector-by-sector analysis of GHG emissions avoidance. For each sector, we consider the maximum reduction in CO2 emissions due to such research, and the cost effectiveness of the new efficient technologies. The results are normalized on a country-by-country basis, where we consider the USA, the European Union, China, India, and Australia as representative countries or regions. Among energy supply-side technologies, improvements in coal-burning power generation are seen as having the most beneficial CO2 and economic impacts. The one demand-side technology considered, residential space cooling, offers positive but limited impacts. The proposed framework can be extended to include additional technologies and impacts, such as water consumption.

  6. FactSheetOnGlobalClimateChange.pdf | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    FactSheetOnGlobalClimateChange.pdf FactSheetOnGlobalClimateChange.pdf U (37.81 KB) More Documents & Publications U Twenty In Ten: Strengthening America's Energy Security Climate ...

  7. U.S. Global Climate Change program | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    U.S. Global Climate Change program Home Graham7781's picture Submitted by Graham7781(2017) Super contributor 18 January, 2013 - 15:46 U.S. Global Change Research Program publishes...

  8. Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land-Use Changes: 1850 to 1990

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houghton, R.A.

    2001-02-22

    The database documented in this numeric data package, a revision to a database originally published by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) in 1995, consists of annual estimates, from 1850 through 1990, of the net flux of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere resulting from deliberate changes in land cover and land use, especially forest clearing for agriculture and the harvest of wood for wood products or energy. The data are provided on a year-by-year basis for nine regions (North America, South and Central America, Europe, North Africa and the Middle East, Tropical Africa, the Former Soviet Union, China, South and Southeast Asia, and the Pacific Developed Region) and the globe. Some data begin earlier than 1850 (e.g., for six regions, areas of different ecosystems are provided for the year 1700) or extend beyond 1990 (e.g., fuelwood harvest in South and Southeast Asia, by forest type, is provided through 1995). The global net flux during the period 1850 to 1990 was 124 Pg of carbon (1 petagram = 10{sup 15} grams). During this period, the greatest regional flux was from South and Southeast Asia (39 Pg of carbon), while the smallest regional flux was from North Africa and the Middle East (3 Pg of carbon). For the year 1990, the global total net flux was estimated to be 2.1 Pg of carbon.

  9. US forests and global change - precolonization to the 21st century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zerbe, J.I.

    1997-12-31

    The forests of the United States and manufacture of products from raw materials produced in the forests are significant for the international global economy and for amelioration of threatening global climate change. This paper explores the conditions of the forests as a result of changing anthropogenic influences, and how these conditions might impact on global change.

  10. Changes in U.S. Participation in Global Product Markets: Increases and Changes in Product Exports

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    in U.S. Participation in Global Product Markets: Increases and Changes in Product Exports 2014 EIA Energy Conference Hart Energy Research and Consulting Washington DC July 14, 2014 2 © 2014 Hart Energy. All rights reserved. Emerging Characteristics of Global Petroleum Product Markets Growth in Demand Focused in Pacific. Incremental demand oriented toward distillate Source: Hart Energy Research & Consulting, 2014 26% 25% 24% 24% 15% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 5% 29% 31% 32% 33% 49% 9% 8% 8%

  11. Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB). Users' manual and technical documentation.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mueller, S; Dunn, JB; Wang, M

    2012-06-07

    The Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB) calculates carbon emissions from land use change (LUC) for four different ethanol production pathways including corn grain ethanol and cellulosic ethanol from corn stover, miscanthus, and switchgrass. This document discusses the version of CCLUB released May 31, 2012 which includes corn, as did the previous CCLUB version, and three cellulosic feedstocks: corn stover, miscanthus, and switchgrass. CCLUB calculations are based upon two data sets: land change areas and above- and below-ground carbon content. Table 1 identifies where these data are stored and used within the CCLUB model, which is built in MS Excel. Land change area data is from Purdue University's Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) economic model. Section 2 describes the GTAP data CCLUB uses and how these data were modified to reflect shrubland transitions. Feedstock- and spatially-explicit below-ground carbon content data for the United States were generated with a surrogate model for CENTURY's soil organic carbon sub-model (Kwon and Hudson 2010) as described in Section 3. CENTURY is a soil organic matter model developed by Parton et al. (1987). The previous CCLUB version used more coarse domestic carbon emission factors. Above-ground non-soil carbon content data for forest ecosystems was sourced from the USDA/NCIAS Carbon Online Estimator (COLE) as explained in Section 4. We discuss emission factors used for calculation of international greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Section 5. Temporal issues associated with modeling LUC emissions are the topic of Section 6. Finally, in Section 7 we provide a step-by-step guide to using CCLUB and obtaining results.

  12. Agriculture, Land Use, Energy and Carbon Emission Impacts of Global Biofuel Mandates to Mid-Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wise, Marshall A.; Dooley, James J.; Luckow, Patrick; Calvin, Katherine V.; Kyle, G. Page

    2014-02-01

    Three potential future scenarios of expanded global biofuel production are presented here utilizing the GCAM integrated assessment model. These scenarios span a range that encompasses on the low end a continuation of existing biofuel production policies to two scenarios that would require an expansion of current targets as well as an extension of biofuels targets to other regions of the world. Conventional oil use is reduced by 4-8% in the expanded biofuel scenarios, which results in a decrease of in CO2 emissions on the order of 1-2 GtCO2/year by mid-century from the global transportation sector. The regional distribution of crop production is relatively unaffected, but the biofuels targets do result in a marked increase in the production of conventional crops used for energy. Producer prices of sugar and corn reach levels about 12% and 7% above year 2005 levels, while the increased competition for land causes the price of food crops such as wheat, although not used for bioenergy in this study, to increase by 1 to 2%. The amount of land devoted to growing all food crops and dedicated bioenergy crops is increased by about 10% by 2050 in the High biofuel case, with concurrent decreases in other uses of land such as forest and pasture. In both of the expanded biofuels cases studied, there is an increase in net cumulative carbon emissions for the first couple of decades due to these induced land use changes. However, the difference in net cumulative emissions from the biofuels expansion decline by about 2035 as the reductions in energy system emissions exceed further increases in emissions from land use change. Even in the absence of a policy that would limit emissions from land use change, the differences in net cumulative emissions from the biofuels scenarios reach zero by 2050, and are decreasing further over time in both cases.

  13. Global Climate Change and the Transportation Sector: An Update on Issues and Mitigation Options

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Geffen, CA; Dooley, JJ; Kim, SH

    2003-08-24

    It is clear from numerous energy/economic modeling exercises that addressing the challenges posed by global climate change will eventually require the active participation of all industrial sectors and all consumers on the planet. Yet, these and similar modeling exercises indicate that large stationary CO2 point sources (e.g., refineries and fossil-fired electric power plants) are often the first targets considered for serious CO2 emissions mitigation. Without participation of all sectors of the global economy, however, the challenges of climate change mitigation will not be met. Because of its operating characteristics, price structure, dependence on virtually one energy source (oil), enormous installed infrastructure, and limited technology alternatives, at least in the near-term, the transportation sector will likely represent a particularly difficult challenge for CO2 emissions mitigation. Our research shows that climate change induced price signals (i.e., putting a price on carbon that is emitted to the atmosphere) are in the near term insufficient to drive fundamental shifts in demand for energy services or to transform the way these services are provided in the transportation sector. We believe that a technological revolution will be necessary to accomplish the significant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. This paper presents an update of ongoing research into a variety of technological options that exist for decarbonizing the transportation sector and the various tradeoffs among them.

  14. Ecotones in a changing environment: Workshop on ecotones and global change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Risser, P.G.

    1990-02-01

    The Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) has organized an international project to synthesize and advance current theory on the influence of ecotones, or transition zones between ecosystems, on biodiversity and flows of energy, nutrients, water, and project is other materials between ecosystems. In particular, the entire project is designed to evaluate the influence of global climate change and land-use practices on biodiversity and ecological flows associated with ecotones, and will assess the feasibility of monitoring ecotones as early indicators of global change. The later stages of the project will recommend landscape management strategies for ecotones that produce desirable patterns of biodiversity and ecological flows. The result of the project--a comprehensive body of information on the theory and management of biodiversity and ecological flows associated with ecotones--will be part of the planning for research to be carried out under the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program.

  15. Modeling the role of terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon cycle

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Emanuel, W.R.; Post, W.M.; Shugart, H.H. Jr.

    1980-01-01

    A model for the global biogeochemical cycle of carbon which includes a five-compartment submodel for circulation in terrestrial ecosystems of the world is presented. Although this terrestrial submodel divides carbon into compartments with more functional detail than previous models, the variability in carbon dynamics among ecosystem types and in different climatic zones is not adequately treated. A new model construct which specifically treats this variability by modeling the distribution of ecosystem types as a function of climate on a 0.5/sup 0/ latitude by 0.5/sup 0/ longitude scale of resolution is proposed.

  16. Measures used to tackle environmental problems related to global warming and climate change resulting from the use of coal

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoppe, J.A.

    1996-12-31

    Environmental issues continue to play a major role in strategic planning associated with the use of coal for power generation. Problems, such as Acid Rain resulting from SO{sub 2} emissions produced from the sulfur content of coal during coal combustion, have recently cornered the attention of policy makers and planners. More recently the carbon content of coal, which provides for most of the coals heating value, has been identified as the major contributor to the production of CO{sub 2} and other emissions associated with Global Warming and Climate Change. Total world carbon emissions resulting from the burning of fossil fuels were approximately 6 billion metric tons in 1990, of which 44% were from the consumption of oil, 39% from coal, and 17% from natural gas. Assuming no change in current regulations, carbon emissions are anticipated to grow by 1.5% per year, and are predicted to reach more than 8 billion tons by the year 2010. Most of this increase in carbon emissions is expected to come from developing countries in the Asian Pacific Region such as China where coal use dominates the power production industry and accounts for 71% of its total CO{sub 2} emissions. Asian Pacific coal demand is expected to double over the next 15 years accounting for a 46% increase in total primary energy demand, and China currently produces approximately 11% of the world`s global greenhouse gas emissions which is expected to grow to 15% by the year 2010.

  17. Japan-Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth Strategies...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    and Low Carbon Growth Strategies in Northeast Asia Jump to: navigation, search Name Japan-Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth Strategies in Northeast Asia Agency...

  18. Influence of Climate Change Mitigation Technology on Global Demands of Water for Electricity Generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Dooley, James J.; Smith, Steven J.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.

    2013-01-17

    Globally, electricity generation accounts for a large and potentially growing water demand, and as such is an important component to assessments of global and regional water scarcity. However, the current suite—as well as potential future suites—of thermoelectric generation technologies has a very wide range of water demand intensities, spanning two orders of magnitude. As such, the evolution of the generation mix is important for the future water demands of the sector. This study uses GCAM, an integrated assessment model, to analyze the global electric sector’s water demands in three futures of climate change mitigation policy and two technology strategies. We find that despite five- to seven-fold expansion of the electric sector as a whole from 2005 to 2095, global electric sector water withdrawals remain relatively stable, due to the retirement of existing power plants with water-intensive once-through flow cooling systems. In the scenarios examined here, climate policies lead to the large-scale deployment of advanced, low-emissions technologies such as carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), concentrating solar power, and engineered geothermal systems. In particular, we find that the large-scale deployment of CCS technologies does not increase long-term water consumption from hydrocarbon-fueled power generation as compared with a no-policy scenario without CCS. Moreover, in sensitivity scenarios where low-emissions electricity technologies are required to use dry cooling systems, we find that the consequent additional costs and efficiency reductions do not limit the utility of these technologies in achieving cost-effective whole-system emissions mitigation.

  19. Global Carbon Emissions in the Coming Decades: The Case of China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Levine, Mark; Levine, Mark D.; Aden, Nathaniel T.

    2008-05-01

    China's annual energy-related carbon emissions surpassed those of the United States in In order to build a more robust understanding of China's energy-related carbon emissions, emissions after 2001? The divergence between actual and forecasted carbon emissions international trade, and central government policies in driving emissions growth. so greatly in error and what drove the rapid growth of China's energy-related carbon this article reviews the role of economic restructuring, urbanization, coal dependence, underscores the rapid changes that have taken place in China's energy system since 2001.

  20. Climate-change effects on soils: Accelerated weathering, soil carbon and elemental cycling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qafoku, Nikolla

    2015-04-01

    Climate change [i.e., high atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (≥400 ppm); increasing air temperatures (2-4°C or greater); significant and/or abrupt changes in daily, seasonal, and inter-annual temperature; changes in the wet/dry cycles; intensive rainfall and/or heavy storms; extended periods of drought; extreme frost; heat waves and increased fire frequency] is and will significantly affect soil properties and fertility, water resources, food quantity and quality, and environmental quality. Biotic processes that consume atmospheric CO2, and create organic carbon (C) that is either reprocessed to CO2 or stored in soils are the subject of active current investigations, with great concern over the influence of climate change. In addition, abiotic C cycling and its influence on the inorganic C pool in soils is a fundamental global process in which acidic atmospheric CO2 participates in the weathering of carbonate and silicate minerals, ultimately delivering bicarbonate and Ca2+ or other cations that precipitate in the form of carbonates in soils or are transported to the rivers, lakes, and oceans. Soil responses to climate change will be complex, and there are many uncertainties and unresolved issues. The objective of the review is to initiate and further stimulate a discussion about some important and challenging aspects of climate-change effects on soils, such as accelerated weathering of soil minerals and resulting C and elemental fluxes in and out of soils, soil/geo-engineering methods used to increase C sequestration in soils, soil organic matter (SOM) protection, transformation and mineralization, and SOM temperature sensitivity. This review reports recent discoveries, identifies key research needs, and highlights opportunities offered by the climate-change effects on soils.

  1. Quantifying the role of fire in the Earth system - Part 2: Impact on the net carbon balance of global terrestrial ecosystems for the 20th century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Fang; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Levis, Samuel

    2014-03-07

    Fire is the primary terrestrial ecosystem disturbance agent on a global scale. It affects carbon balance of global terrestrial ecosystems by emitting carbon to atmosphere directly and immediately from biomass burning (i.e., fire direct effect), and by changing net ecosystem productivity and land-use carbon loss in post-fire regions due to biomass burning and fire-induced vegetation mortality (i.e., fire indirect effect). Here, we provide the first quantitative assessment about the impact of fire on the net carbon balance of global terrestrial ecosystems for the 20th century, and investigate the roles of fire direct and indirect effects. This study is done by quantifying the difference between the 20th century fire-on and fire-off simulations with NCAR community land model CLM4.5 as the model platform. Results show that fire decreases net carbon gain of the global terrestrial ecosystems by 1.0 Pg C yr-1 average across the 20th century, as a results of fire direct effect (1.9 Pg C yr-1) partly offset by indirect effect (-0.9 Pg C yr-1). Fire generally decreases the average carbon gains of terrestrial ecosystems in post-fire regions, which are significant over tropical savannas and part of forests in North America and the east of Asia. The general decrease of carbon gains in post-fire regions is because fire direct and indirect effects have similar spatial patterns and the former (to decrease carbon gain) is generally stronger. Moreover, the effect of fire on net carbon balance significantly declines prior to ~1970 with trend of 8 Tg C yr-1 due to increasing fire indirect effect and increases afterward with trend of 18 Tg C yr-1 due to increasing fire direct effect.

  2. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

  3. Trends `91: A compendium of data on global change---highlights

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W.

    1992-03-01

    The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has been prompted to produce the series Trends, a concise inventory of data in response to heightened concern about global environmental issues, in particular climate changes induced by the greenhouse effect. This report contains extracts from Trends `91 to illustrate the content, style, and presentation of data contained in the full 700-page report. This report includes a listing of the investigators contributing data for Trends `91. In addition, it contains the abstract, foreword, and acknowledgments, as well as the introduction and a sample data record from each of the reports`s five chapters. The chapters are ``Atmospheric CO{sub 2},`` ``Atmospheric CH{sub 4},`` ``Other Trace Gases,`` ``CO{sub 2} Emissions,`` and ``Temperature.`` Appendix A provides information about CDIAC and its activities related to global environmental issues. Appendix B lists the contents of the full report. An order form for obtaining a free copy of Trends `91 is found in Appendix C.

  4. Trends '91: A compendium of data on global change---highlights

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W.

    1992-03-01

    The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has been prompted to produce the series Trends, a concise inventory of data in response to heightened concern about global environmental issues, in particular climate changes induced by the greenhouse effect. This report contains extracts from Trends '91 to illustrate the content, style, and presentation of data contained in the full 700-page report. This report includes a listing of the investigators contributing data for Trends '91. In addition, it contains the abstract, foreword, and acknowledgments, as well as the introduction and a sample data record from each of the reports's five chapters. The chapters are Atmospheric CO[sub 2],'' Atmospheric CH[sub 4],'' Other Trace Gases,'' CO[sub 2] Emissions,'' and Temperature.'' Appendix A provides information about CDIAC and its activities related to global environmental issues. Appendix B lists the contents of the full report. An order form for obtaining a free copy of Trends '91 is found in Appendix C.

  5. The response of mangroves to projected impacts of global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Twilley, R.R.; Chen, R.H.

    1995-06-01

    A hierarchical classification system for mangroves together with a community-based ecological model (ESA abstract by Chen and Twilley, 1995) were used to asses the response of mangroves to global climate change. The hierarchical classification includes a matrix of the ecological type (riverine, fringe, basin, and dwarf mangroves) and the geomorphologic environmental setting (delta, estuarine, lagoon, carbonate platform systems). The significance of this hierarchical classification, referred to as a eco-geomorphic system, is demonstrated with a summary of the spatial variation in ecosystem function among different coastal settings. Changes in sea level, frequency of frost, and frequency of hurricanes were simulated and results of forest community composition, tree density and dominance, and forest biomass were compared to field sites of known disturbance. For lagoon basin forests, hurricane frequency increase from 28 yrs to 15 yrs had less impact on total biomass than increase in frost from 12 yrs to 8 yrs. Both disturbances changed the community composition of the forests. The patterns of recovery vary among geomorphic types due to nutrient limitation of regrowth.

  6. Stabilization Wedges and the Management of Global Carbon for the next 50 years

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Socolow, Robert [Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States

    2009-09-01

    More than 40 years after receiving a Ph.D. in physics, I am still working on problems where conservation laws matter. In particular, for the problems I work on now, the conservation of the carbon atom matters. I will tell the saga of an annual flow of 8 billion tons of carbon associated with the global extraction of fossil fuels from underground. Until recently, it was taken for granted that virtually all of this carbon will move within weeks through engines of various kinds and then into the atmosphere. For compelling environmental reasons, I and many others are challenging this complacent view, asking whether the carbon might wisely be directed elsewhere. To frame this and similar discussions, Steve Pacala and I introduced the 'stabilization wedge' in 2004 as a useful unit for discussing climate stabilization. Updating the definition, a wedge is the reduction of CO2 emissions by one billion tons of carbon per year in 2057, achieved by any strategy generated as a result of deliberate attention to global carbon. Each strategy uses already commercialized technology, generally at much larger scale than today. Implementing seven wedges should enable the world to achieve the interim goal of emitting no more CO2 globally in 2057 than today. This would place humanity, approximately, on a path to stabilizing CO2 at less than double the pre-industrial concentration, and it would put those at the helm in the following 50 years in a position to drive CO2 emissions to a net of zero in the following 50 years. Arguably, the tasks of the two half-centuries are comparably difficult.

  7. Global surface temperature changes since the 1850s

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, P.D.

    1996-12-31

    Temperature data from land and marine areas form the basis for many studies of climatic variations on local, regional and hemispheric scales, and the global mean temperature is a fundamental measure of the state of the climate system. In this paper it is shown that the surface temperature of the globe has warmed by about 0.5{degrees}C since the mid-nineteenth century. This is an important part of the evidence in the {open_quote}global warming{close_quote} debate. How certain are we about the magnitude of the warming? Where has it been greatest? In this paper, these and related issues will be addressed.

  8. Effective Permeability Change in Wellbore Cement with Carbon Dioxide Reaction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Um, Wooyong; Jung, Hun Bok; Martin, Paul F.; McGrail, B. Peter

    2011-11-01

    -sized calcite on the outside surface of cement, which resulted in the decrease in BJH pore volume and BET surface area. Cement carbonation and pore structure change are significantly dependent on pressure and temperature conditions as well as the phase of CO{sub 2}, which controls the balance between precipitation and dissolution in cement matrix. Geochemical modeling result suggests that ratio of solid (cement)-to-solution (carbonated water) has a significant effect on cement carbonation, thus the cement-CO{sub 2} reaction experiment needs to be conducted under realistic conditions representing the in-situ wellbore environment of carbon sequestration field site. Total porosity and air permeability for a duplicate cement column with water-to-cement ratio of 0.38 measured after oven-drying by Core Laboratories using Boyle's Law technique and steady-state method were 31% and 0.576 mD. A novel method to measure the effective liquid permeability of a cement column using X-ray micro-tomography images after injection of pressurized KI (potassium iodide) is under development by PNNL. Preliminary results indicate the permeability of a cement column with water-to-cement ratio of 0.38 is 4-8 mD. PNNL will apply the method to understand the effective permeability change of Portland cement by CO{sub 2}(g) reaction under a variety of pressure and temperature conditions to develop a more reliable well-bore leakage risk model.

  9. Modeling U.S. Energy Use Changes with Global Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadley, Stanton W; Erickson III, David J; Hernandez Figueroa, Jose L

    2006-09-01

    Using a general circulation model of Earth climate (PCM-IBIS) to drive an energy use model (DD-NEMS), we calculated the energy use changes for each year from 2003-2025 for the nine U.S. Census regions. We used five scenarios: 1) a reference with no change in temperatures from the 1970-2003 average, 2) a gradual 1 F rise in temperature by 2025, 3) a gradual 3 F rise by 2025, 4) a climate simulation with low temperature response to CO2 doubling in the atmosphere, and 5) a climate simulation with a more extreme response. The low-?T scenario had a cumulative reduction in energy of 2.1 Quads but an increase in cost of $14.8 billion. The northern states had reductions in cost over the entire period, but most other regions had increases in costs because increases in cooling costs outweighed reductions in heating and other energy uses. Higher temperature sensitivity resulted in increased warming, especially in the winter months. Because heating needs decreased, total energy requirements declined by a cumulative 4.2 Quads. However, total cost still increased $6.1 billion and carbon emissions still rose as coal-based electricity for cooling needs grew.

  10. Geologic carbon sequestration as a global strategy to mitigate CO2 emissions: Sustainability and environmental risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oldenburg, C.M.

    2011-04-01

    Fossil fuels are abundant, inexpensive to produce, and are easily converted to usable energy by combustion as demonstrated by mankind's dependence on fossil fuels for over 80% of its primary energy supply (13). This reliance on fossil fuels comes with the cost of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions that exceed the rate at which CO{sub 2} can be absorbed by terrestrial and oceanic systems worldwide resulting in increases in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration as recorded by direct measurements over more than five decades (14). Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas linked to global warming and associated climate change, the impacts of which are currently being observed around the world, and projections of which include alarming consequences such as water and food shortages, sea level rise, and social disruptions associated with resource scarcity (15). The current situation of a world that derives the bulk of its energy from fossil fuel in a manner that directly causes climate change equates to an energy-climate crisis. Although governments around the world have only recently begun to consider policies to avoid the direst projections of climate change and its impacts, sustainable approaches to addressing the crisis are available. The common thread of feasible strategies to the energy climate crisis is the simultaneous use of multiple approaches based on available technologies (e.g., 16). Efficiency improvements (e.g., in building energy use), increased use of natural gas relative to coal, and increased development of renewables such as solar, wind, and geothermal, along with nuclear energy, are all available options that will reduce net CO{sub 2} emissions. While improvements in efficiency can be made rapidly and will pay for themselves, the slower pace of change and greater monetary costs associated with increased use of renewables and nuclear energy suggests an additional approach is needed to help bridge the time period between the present and a future when

  11. Where does the carbon go?Plant carbon allocation under climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sevanto, Sanna; Dickman, L. Turin

    2015-06-01

    The ability of terrestrial vegetation to both take up and release carbon and water makes understanding climate change effects on plant function critical. These effects could alter the impacts and feedbacks of vegetation on climate and either slow down or accelerate climatic warming (Bonan 2008). In conclusion, studies on plant responses to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and elevated temperatures have become abundant in the last 20 years (for reviews, see Way and Oren 2010, Franks et al. 2013).

  12. Where does the carbon go?–Plant carbon allocation under climate change

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Sevanto, Sanna; Dickman, L. Turin

    2015-06-01

    The ability of terrestrial vegetation to both take up and release carbon and water makes understanding climate change effects on plant function critical. These effects could alter the impacts and feedbacks of vegetation on climate and either slow down or accelerate climatic warming (Bonan 2008). In conclusion, studies on plant responses to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and elevated temperatures have become abundant in the last 20 years (for reviews, see Way and Oren 2010, Franks et al. 2013).

  13. Where does the carbon go?–Plant carbon allocation under climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sevanto, Sanna; Dickman, L. Turin

    2015-06-01

    The ability of terrestrial vegetation to both take up and release carbon and water makes understanding climate change effects on plant function critical. These effects could alter the impacts and feedbacks of vegetation on climate and either slow down or accelerate climatic warming (Bonan 2008). In conclusion, studies on plant responses to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and elevated temperatures have become abundant in the last 20 years (for reviews, see Way and Oren 2010, Franks et al. 2013).

  14. Observed hemispheric asymmetry in global sea ice changes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cavalieri, D.J.; Gloersen, P.; Parkinson, C.L.; Comiso, J.C.; Zwally, H.J.

    1997-11-07

    From November 1978 through December 1996, the areal extent of sea ice decreased by 2.9 {+-} 0.4 percent decade in the Arctic and increased by 1.3 {+-} 0.2 percent per decade in the Antarctic. The observed hemispheric asymmetry in these trends is consistent with a modeled response to a carbon dioxide-induced climate warming. The interannual variations, which are 2.3 percent of the annual mean in the Arctic, with a predominant period of about 5 years, and 3.4 percent of the annual mean in the Antarctic, with a predominant period of about 3 years, are uncorrelated. 29 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  15. Butterfly Wing Nanostructures and Temperature Changes | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Butterfly Wing Nanostructures and Temperature Changes Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window) Share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Click to share (Opens in new window) Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window) Butterfly Wing Nanostructures and Temperature Changes Radislav Potyrailo 2012.02.13 Hello Earth! New technological advances that have been inspired by Nature provide our society with new, advanced products. Some

  16. Spatial and temporal patterns of biotic exchanges of CO sub 2 between the atmosphere and tropical landscapes and their role in the global carbon balance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-01-01

    At SUNY ESF, our overall objective for this year was to finish refining the methods used to convert our previous models of global carbon flux and land use change into a GIS-compatible format. We now have the ability to obtain, convert, and incorporate geographic data into spatial simulation models that describe past carbon exchange patterns, as well as predict future landuse change and carbon exchange. Our initial tests of this model in Peninsula Malaysia have been very promising, in that we are able to successfully predict land use from 1972 to 1982 and even from 1870 to 1970. In this context successful'' means that we classify in the model from 80 to 95 percent of the cells correctly, depending upon the number of land use types we try to predict. We are now preparing to apply this model to the entire continent of Africa and to Central America.

  17. International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B.

    1991-12-01

    The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with the polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; and (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks, (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosol and trace gases.

  18. Environmental Justice: Made-for-Television—Climate Change: A Global Reality

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy was invited to be a panelist for a made-for-television educational program in Columbia, South Carolina, titled Climate Change: A Global Reality. DOE also co-sponsored...

  19. International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B.

    1991-12-01

    The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks; (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosols and trace gases.

  20. Global Climate Change Response Program: Potential regional impacts of global warming on precipitation in the western United States. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leverson, V.

    1997-01-01

    This study was designed to build upon a previous Global Climate Change Response Program investigation in which an initial `first guess` climate change scenario was derived for the Western United States. Using the scenario`s hypothesized northward shift in the mean wintertime storm track, historical upper-air patterns in the atmosphere were searched to identify winter months (December, January, or February) that would serve as appropriate global warming analogues (GWA). Contour charts were generated of four geopotential height parameters. Specific pattern configurations of the four parameters were identified that reflected the altered storm track pattern, and guidelines for selecting suitable analogues based on the configurations were developed. Monthly mean precipitation values for the GWA months at three climatological divisions in Western Montana, northern Utah, and east central Arizona were compared with median values for the 1946-89 period to determine if any significant differences existed.

  1. "The gate-keepers in a changing world: integrating microbial diversity and dynamics with global change biology."

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jessica L.M. Gutknecht and Kathryn M. Docherty

    2011-11-01

    Microorganisms (Bacteria, Archaea and Fungi) are the gate-keepers of many ecosystem-scale biogeochemical cycles. Although there have been measurable changes in ecosystem function due to human activities such as greenhouse gas production, nutrient loading, land-use change, and water consumption, few studies have connected microbial community dynamics with these changes in ecosystem function. Specifically, very little is known about how global changes will induce important functional changes in microbial biodiversity. Even less is known about how microbial functional changes could alter rates of nutrient cycling or whether microbial communities have enough functional redundancy that changes will have little impact on overall process rates. The proposed symposium will provide an overview of this emerging research area, with emphasis on linking the microorganisms directly to important ecological functions under the influence of global change dynamics. The session will include both broad overviews as well as specific case-studies by researchers who examine microbial communities from a variety of taxonomic levels and from various environments. The session will begin broadly, with speakers discussing how microbial communities may inform ecosystem-scale global change studies, and help to make microbial ecological knowledge more tangible for a broad range of ecologists. The session will continue with case studies of microbial community information informing process in global change experiments. Finally, the session will close with speakers discussing how microbial community information might fit into global change models, and what types of information are useful for future studies. We have requested that speakers particularly incorporate their views on what types of microbial data is useful and informative in the context of larger ecosystem processes. We foresee that this session could serve as a focal point for global change microbial ecologists to meet and discuss their

  2. Simulations of the global carbon cycle and anthropogenic CO{sub 2} transient. Final report, September 15, 1993--September 14, 1997

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sarmiento, J.L.; Pacala, S.W.

    1998-06-01

    The primary accomplishment of this research was the development of an ocean biogeochemistry model for the carbon cycle, and the application of this model to studies of anthropogenic CO{sub 2} uptake and the global carbon cycle. The model has been used to study the oceanic uptake that would occur if future atmospheric CO{sub 2} were to be stabilized with the ocean circulation remaining constant. The authors also modeled how oceanic uptake would be affected by changes in ocean circulation that are predicted to occur due to global warming. The research resulted in 21 publications, and an additional 5 papers either in press or in preparation. The accomplishments of this research served as the foundation on which the Carbon Modeling Consortium was built. The CMC is a NOAA funded collaborative program involving principal investigators from various NOAA laboratories and universities. It has the goal of developing techniques to monitor the global carbon cycle on land as well as the ocean, and to predict its future course.

  3. U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity and the Global Climate Change Initiative (released in AEO2005)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2005-01-01

    On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administrations Global Climate Change Initiative. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas intensity by 18% over the 2002 to 2012 time frame. For the purposes of the initiative, greenhouse gas intensity is defined as the ratio of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to economic output.

  4. U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity and the Global Climate Change Initiative (released in AEO2006)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2006-01-01

    On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administrations Global Climate Change Initiative. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity-defined as the ratio of total U.S. GHG emissions to economic output-by 18% over the 2002 to 2012 time frame.

  5. Global Warming and Ice Ages: I. Prospects For Physics Based Modulation of Global Change

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Teller, E.; Wood, L.; Hyde, R.

    1996-08-15

    It has been suggested that large-scale climate changes, mostly due to atmospheric injection of greenhouse gases connected with fossil-fired energy production, should be forestalled by internationally-agreed reductions in, e.g., electricity generation. The potential economic impacts of such limitations are obviously large: greater than or equal to $10{sup 11}/year. We propose that for far smaller - less than 1% - the mean thermal effects of greenhouse gases may be obviated in any of several distinct ways, some of them novel. These suggestions are all based on scatterers that prevent a small fraction of solar radiation from reaching all or part of the Earth. We propose research directed to quite near-term realization of one or more of these inexpensive approaches to cancel the effects of the greenhouse gas injection. While the magnitude of the climatic impact of greenhouse gases is currently uncertain, the prospect of severe failure of the climate, for instance at the onset of the next Ice Age, is undeniable. The proposals in this paper may lead to quite practical methods to reduce or eliminate all climate failures.

  6. Carbon Disclosure Project Webinar: Climate Change: A Challenge for Bond Analysts

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Hosted by the Carbon Disclosure Project, this webinar will cover climate change and how its impacts can present significant risks for municipalities and municipal bond investors.

  7. Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit; Mundra, Anupriya

    2016-08-01

    Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representative Concentrationmore » Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (ΩAr) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H+] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO2 concentrations – Q10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in ΩAr saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations

  8. Future global environmental changes: Comparison with past and present rates of change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cole, K.L. (Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul (United States))

    1993-06-01

    Quantification of past and present rates of vegetation change provides a yardstick for the evaluation of future rates of change. Holocene and post-settlement rates of vegetation change were measured at Channel Islands and Capitol Reef National Parks, and at Indiana Dunes and Pictured Rocks National Lakeshores, using various paleoecological proxy data. Vegetation changes were quantified using several multivariate ordination techniques. Comparison of past vegetation changes due to climatic shifts, plant succession, and plant migration, with ongoing changes due to grazing, logging, exotic species invasions, and modified fire regimes, demonstrates that plant communities are presently suffering rates of change which are unprecedented in their severity for the Last 5000 years. The climatic warming projected for the next 50 years will exacerbate these ongoing changes, but win only be one of many variables operating in the unplanned experimental redesign our natural ecosystems.

  9. A global analysis of soil microbial biomass carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus in terrestrial ecosystems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Xiaofeng; Thornton, Peter E; Post, Wilfred M

    2013-01-01

    Soil microbes play a pivotal role in regulating land-atmosphere interactions; the soil microbial biomass carbon (C), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and C:N:P stoichiometry are important regulators for soil biogeochemical processes; however, the current knowledge on magnitude, stoichiometry, storage, and spatial distribution of global soil microbial biomass C, N, and P is limited. In this study, 3087 pairs of data points were retrieved from 281 published papers and further used to summarize the magnitudes and stoichiometries of C, N, and P in soils and soil microbial biomass at global- and biome-levels. Finally, global stock and spatial distribution of microbial biomass C and N in 0-30 cm and 0-100 cm soil profiles were estimated. The results show that C, N, and P in soils and soil microbial biomass vary substantially across biomes; the fractions of soil nutrient C, N, and P in soil microbial biomass are 1.6% in a 95% confidence interval of (1.5%-1.6%), 2.9% in a 95% confidence interval of (2.8%-3.0%), and 4.4% in a 95% confidence interval of (3.9%-5.0%), respectively. The best estimates of C:N:P stoichiometries for soil nutrients and soil microbial biomass are 153:11:1, and 47:6:1, respectively, at global scale, and they vary in a wide range among biomes. Vertical distribution of soil microbial biomass follows the distribution of roots up to 1 m depth. The global stock of soil microbial biomass C and N were estimated to be 15.2 Pg C and 2.3 Pg N in the 0-30 cm soil profiles, and 21.2 Pg C and 3.2 Pg N in the 0-100 cm soil profiles. We did not estimate P in soil microbial biomass due to data shortage and insignificant correlation with soil total P and climate variables. The spatial patterns of soil microbial biomass C and N were consistent with those of soil organic C and total N, i.e. high density in northern high latitude, and low density in low latitudes and southern hemisphere.

  10. Acting Globally: Potential Carbon Emissions Mitigation Impacts from an International Standards and Labelling Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNeil, Michael A; Letschert, Virginie E.; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; Egan, Christine

    2009-05-29

    This paper presents an analysis of the potential impacts of an international initiative designed to support and promote the development and implementation of appliances standards and labelling programs throughout the world. As part of previous research efforts, LBNL developed the Bottom Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS), an analysis framework that estimates impact potentials of energy efficiency policies on a global scale. In this paper, we apply this framework to an initiative that would result in the successful implementation of programs focused on high priority regions and product types, thus evaluating the potential impacts of such an initiative in terms of electricity savings and carbon mitigation in 2030. In order to model the likely parameters of such a program, we limit impacts to a five year period starting in 2009, but assume that the first 5 years of a program will result in implementation of 'best practice' minimum efficiency performance standards by 2014. The 'high priority' regions considered are: Brazil, China, the European Union,India, Mexico and the United States. The products considered are: refrigerators, air conditioners, lighting (both fluorescent and incandescent), standby power (for consumer electronics) and televisions in the residential sector, and air conditioning and lighting in commercial buildings. In 2020, these regions and enduses account for about 37percent of global residential electricity and 29percent of electricity in commercial buildings. We find that 850Mt of CO2 could be saved in buildings by 2030 compared to the baseline forecast.

  11. Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB). Users' Manual and Technical Documentation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dunn, Jennifer B.; Qin, Zhangcai; Mueller, Steffen; Kwon, Ho-young; Wander, Michelle M.; Wang, Michael

    2014-09-01

    The Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB) calculates carbon emissions from land use change (LUC) for four different ethanol production pathways including corn grain ethanol and cellulosic ethanol from corn stover, Miscanthus, and switchgrass. This document discusses the version of CCLUB released September 30, 2014 which includes corn and three cellulosic feedstocks: corn stover, Miscanthus, and switchgrass.

  12. National Environmental Health Association position on global climate change adopted July 2, 1997

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Radtke, T.; Gist, G.L.; Wittkopf, T.E.

    1997-11-01

    The National Environmental Health Association (NEHA) supports the precept that anthropogenic sources, specifically greenhouse gases, are responsible for a significant portion of the measured change in global climate. Further, NEHA supports the concept of an association between global warming and an increased risk to public health. Reducing the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere will benefit human health. This position paper reviews current information on the status of global climate change with particular emphasis on the implications for environmental and public health. It is intended to be used as a basis from which environmental and public health practitioners and colleagues in related fields can initiate discussions with policy makers at all levels -- local, state, national, and worldwide.

  13. Possible changes for mudflow and avalanche activity in former Soviet Union due to the global warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Glazovskaya, T.G.; Sidorova, T.L.; Seliverstov, Y.G.

    1996-12-31

    Past research, as well as laboratory evidence have revealed a relationship between climate, mudflow, and avalanche activity. It is possible to predict changes in mudflow and avalanche activity by using climate models. In this study, the GFDL model was used which contained data on mean monthly air temperature, precipitation, and carbon dioxide concentrations.

  14. The terrestrial carbon inventory on the Savannah River Site: Assessing the change in Carbon pools 1951-2001.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dai, Zhaohua; Trettin, Carl, C.; Parresol, Bernard, R.

    2011-11-30

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) has changed from an agricultural-woodland landscape in 1951 to a forested landscape during that latter half of the twentieth century. The corresponding change in carbon (C) pools associated land use on the SRS was estimated using comprehensive inventories from 1951 and 2001 in conjunction with operational forest management and monitoring data from the site.

  15. U.S. Department of Energy Global Change Fellowships, 1991-2006: Participant Follow-Up

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education

    2006-09-01

    This report provides information on the impact of two U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) programs supporting graduate study related to global change. The information was obtained from former fellows in the two programs, and the report examines their subsequent careers and the benefits of program participation.

  16. National Institute for Global Environmental Change, July 1, 1994-- June 30, 1995

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-12-31

    This document contains the report from the National Institute for Global Environmental Change for the period July 1, 1994 to June 30, 1995. Separate sections for the Great Plains, Midwestern, Norhteast, South Central, Southeast and Western regions are present. Each section contains project descriptions and abstracts for projects managed by the respective regional offices.

  17. Estimating Carbon Supply Curves for Global Forests and Other Land Uses April 2001, Discussion Paper 01-19

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sedjo, Roger; Sohngen, Brent; Mendelsohn, Robert

    2001-04-05

    This study develops cumulative carbon ''supply curves'' for global forests utilizing a dynamic timber supply model for sequestration of forest carbon. Because the period of concern is the next century, and particular time points within that century, the curves are not traditional Marshallian supply curves or steady-state supply curves. Rather, the focus is on cumulative carbon cost curves (quasi-supply curves) at various points in time over the next 100 years. The research estimates a number of long-term, cumulative, carbon quasi-supply curves under different price scenarios and for different time periods. The curves trace out the relationship between an intertemporal price path for carbon, as given by carbon shadow prices, and the cumulative carbon sequestered from the initiation of the shadow prices, set at 2000, to a selected future year (2010, 2050, 2100). The timber supply model demonstrates that cumulative carbon quasi-supply curves that can be generated through forestry significantly depend on initial carbon prices and expectations regarding the time profile of future carbon prices. Furthermore, long-run quasi-supply curves generated from a constant price will have somewhat different characteristics from quasi-supply curves generated with an expectation of rising carbon prices through time.The ?least-cost? curves vary the time periods under consideration and the time profile of carbon prices. The quasi-supply curves suggest that a policy of gradually increasing carbon prices will generate the least costly supply curves in the shorter periods of a decade or so. Over longer periods of time, however, such as 50 or 100 years, these advantages appear to dissipate.

  18. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Release Commercial Aircraft Propulsion and Energy Systems Research: Reducing Global Carbon Emissions

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine releases the Commercial Aircraft Propulsion and Energy Systems Research: Reducing Global Carbon Emissions report, which focuses on large (single- and twin-aisle) planes that transport more than 100 people. These aircraft account for more than 90% of greenhouse gas emissions from all commercial aircraft.

  19. Global

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Permalink EC, DHS's S&T Directorate, Federal Emergency Management Agency: SUMMIT Analysis, Capabilities, Facilities, Global, Infrastructure Security, Modeling, Modeling & Analysis, NISAC, Partnership, Research & Capabilities EC, DHS's S&T Directorate, Federal Emergency Management Agency: SUMMIT Natural disasters create emergency situations that must be dealt with quickly and effectively in order to minimize injury and loss of life. Simulating such events before they occur can

  20. Physically-Based Global Downscaling: Climate Change Projections for a Full Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghan, Steven J.; Shippert, Timothy R.

    2006-05-01

    A global atmosphere/land model with an embedded subgrid orography scheme is used to simulate the period 1977-2100 using ocean surface conditions and radiative constituent concentrations for a climate change scenario. Climate variables simulated for multiple elevation classes are mapping according to the high-resolution of topography in ten regions with complex terrain. Analysis of changes in the simulated climate lead to the following conclusions. Changes in precipitation vary widely, with precipitation increasing more with increasing altitude in some region, decreasing more with altitude in others, and changing little in still others. In some regions the sign of the precipitation change depends on surface elevation. Changes in surface air temperature are rather uniform, with at most a two-fold difference between the largest and smallest changes within a region. In most cases the warming increases with altitude. Changes in snow water are highly dependent on altitude. Absolute changes usually increase with altitude, while relative changes decrease. In places where snow accumulates, an artificial upper bound on snow water limits the sensitivity of snow water to climate change considerably. The simulated impact of climate change on regional mean snow water varies widely, with little impact in regions in which the upper bound on snow water is the dominant snow water sink, moderate impact in regions with a mixture of seasonal and permanent snow, and profound impacts on regions with little permanent snow.

  1. Physically-Based Global Downscaling Climate Change Projections for a Full Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghan, Steven J.; Shippert, Timothy R.

    2005-04-15

    A global atmosphere/land model with an embedded subgrid orography scheme is used to simulate the period 1977-2100 using ocean surface conditions and radiative constituent concentrations for a climate change scenario. Climate variables simulated for multiple elevation classes are mapping according to a high-resolution elevation dataset in ten regions with complex terrain. Analysis of changes in the simulated climate leads to the following conclusions. Changes in precipitation vary widely, with precipitation increasing more with increasing altitude in some region, decreasing more with altitude in others, and changing little in still others. In some regions the sign of the precipitation change depends on surface elevation. Changes in surface air temperature are rather uniform, with at most a two-fold difference between the largest and smallest changes within a region; in most cases the warming increases with altitude. Changes in snow water are highly dependent on altitude. Absolute changes usually increase with altitude, while relative changes decrease. In places where snow accumulates, an artificial upper bound on snow water limits the sensitivity of snow water to climate change considerably. The simulated impact of climate change on regional mean snow water varies widely, with little impact in regions in which the upper bound on snow water is the dominant snow water sink, moderate impact in regions with a mixture of seasonal and permanent snow, and profound impacts on regions with little permanent snow.

  2. Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

    2009-08-01

    Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on a grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.

  3. Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, Andrew D.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.

    2015-08-01

    We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm–2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.

  4. Carbon constraint conference: dealing with the climate change conundrum

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Neville, A.

    2008-07-15

    A report on the carbon constraint conference is given. Papers discussed the US national cap-and-trade program that is on the horizon, managing greenhouse gases, the value of corporate sustainability reporting, balancing the generation portfolio and the use of offsets. 1 fig.

  5. National Institute for Global Environmental Change. Semi-annual report, July 1, 1991--December 31, 1991

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Werth, G.C.

    1992-04-01

    This document is the Semi-Annual Report of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change for the reporting period July 1 to December 31, 1991. The report is in two parts. Part I presents the mission of the Institute, examples of progress toward that mission, a brief description of the revised management plan, and the financial report. Part II presents the statements of the Regional Center Directors along with progress reports of the projects written by the researchers themselves.

  6. Net carbon uptake has increased through warming-induced changes in temperate forest phenology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Keenan, Trevor; Gray, Josh; Friedl, Mark; Toomey, Michael; Bohrer, Gil; Hollinger, David; Munger, J. William; OKeefe, John; Hans, Schmid; Wing, Ian; Yang, Bai; Richardson, Andrew D.

    2014-01-01

    The timing of phenological events exerts a strong control over ecosystem function and leads to multiple feedbacks to the climate system1. Phenology is inherently sensitive to temperature (though the exact sensitivity is disputed2) and recent warming is reported to have led to earlier spring, later autumn3,4 and increased vegetation activity5,6. Such greening could be expected to enhance ecosystem carbon uptake7,8, though reports also suggest decreased uptake for boreal forests4,9. Here we assess changes in phenology of temperate forests over the eastern US during the past two decades, and quantify the resulting changes in forest carbon storage. We combine long-term ground observations of phenology, satellite indices, and ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide flux measurements, along with 18 terrestrial biosphere models. We observe a strong trend of earlier spring and later autumn. In contrast to previous suggestions4,9 we show that carbon uptake through photosynthesis increased considerably more than carbon release through respiration for both an earlier spring and later autumn. The terrestrial biosphere models tested misrepresent the temperature sensitivity of phenology, and thus the effect on carbon uptake. Our analysis of the temperature-phenology-carbon coupling suggests a current and possible future enhancement of forest carbon uptake due to changes in phenology. This constitutes a negative feedback to climate change, and is serving to slow the rate of warming.

  7. The impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China during 1978-2008

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhu Qin Peng Xizhe

    2012-09-15

    This study examines the impacts of population size, population structure, and consumption level on carbon emissions in China from 1978 to 2008. To this end, we expanded the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model and used the ridge regression method, which overcomes the negative influences of multicollinearity among independent variables under acceptable bias. Results reveal that changes in consumption level and population structure were the major impact factors, not changes in population size. Consumption level and carbon emissions were highly correlated. In terms of population structure, urbanization, population age, and household size had distinct effects on carbon emissions. Urbanization increased carbon emissions, while the effect of age acted primarily through the expansion of the labor force and consequent overall economic growth. Shrinking household size increased residential consumption, resulting in higher carbon emissions. Households, rather than individuals, are a more reasonable explanation for the demographic impact on carbon emissions. Potential social policies for low carbon development are also discussed. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We examine the impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We expand the STIRPAT model by containing population structure factors in the model. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure includes age structure, urbanization level, and household size. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The ridge regression method is used to estimate the model with multicollinearity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure plays a more important role compared with the population size.

  8. Divergent predictions of carbon storage between two global land models: attribution of the causes through traceability analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rafique, Rashid; Xia, Jianyang; Hararuk, Oleksandra; Asrar, Ghassem R.; Wang, Yingping; Luo, Yiqi

    2015-08-27

    Representations of the terrestrial carbon cycle in land models are becoming increasingly complex. It is crucial to develop approaches for critical assessment of the complex model properties in order to understand key factors contributing to models’ performance. In this study, we applied a traceability analysis, which decomposes carbon cycle models into traceable components, to two global land models (CABLE and CLM-CASA’) to diagnose the causes of their differences in simulating ecosystem carbon storage capacity. Driven with similar forcing data, the CLM-CASA’ model predicted ~31% larger carbon storage capacity than the CABLE model. Since ecosystem carbon storage capacity is a product of net primary productivity (NPP) and ecosystem residence time (τE), the predicted difference in the storage capacity between the two models results from differences in either NPP or τE or both. Our analysis showed that CLM-CASA’ simulated 37% higher NPP than CABLE due to higher rates of carboxylation (Vcmax) in CLM-CASA’. On the other hand, τE , which was a function the baseline carbon residence time (τ´E) and environmental effect on carbon residence time, was on average 11 years longer in CABLE than CLM-CASA’. The difference in τE was mainly found to be caused by longer τ´E in CABLE than CLM-CASA’. This difference in τE was mainly caused by longer τ´E of woody biomass (23 vs. 14 years in CLM-CASA’) and higher proportion of NPP allocated to woody biomass (23% vs. 16%). Differences in environmental effects on carbon residence times had smaller influences on differences in ecosystem carbon storage capacities compared to differences in NPP and τ´E. Overall; the traceability analysis is an effective method for identifying sources of variations between the two models.

  9. Structural analysis of three global land models on carbon cycle simulations using a traceability framework

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Rafique, R.; Xia, J.; Hararuk, O.; Luo, Y.

    2014-06-27

    Modeled carbon (C) storage capacity is largely determined by the C residence time and net primary productivity (NPP). Extensive research has been done on NPP dynamics but the residence time and their relationships with C storage are much less studied. In this study, we implemented a traceability analysis to understand the modeled C storage and residence time in three land surface models: CSIRO's Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) with 9 C pools, Community Land Model (version 3.5) combined with Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CLM3.5-CASA) with 12 C pools and Community Land Model (version 4) (CLM4) with 26 C pools. The globally averagedmoreC storage and residence time was computed at both individual pool and total ecosystem levels. The spatial distribution of total ecosystem C storage and residence time differ greatly among the three models. The CABLE model showed a closer agreement with measured C storage and residence time in plant and soil pools than CLM3.5-CASA and CLM4. However, CLM3.5-CASA and CLM4 were close to each other in modeled C storage but not with measured data. CABLE stores more C in root whereas CLM3.5-CASA and CLM4 store more C in woody pools, partly due to differential NPP allocation in respective pools. The C residence time in individual C pools is greatly different among models, largely because of different transfer coefficient values among pools. CABLE had higher bulk residence time for soil C pools than the other two models. Overall, the traceability analysis used in this study can help fully characterizes the behavior of complex land models.less

  10. Interdependency of fire and global change: The southern U.S. as an example

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zerbe, J.I.

    1995-06-01

    In the US South, increasing population, air pollution, urbanization of forest lands, and possible changes in climate can influence broad changes in forests and the atmosphere. As a result emissions from biomass burning in forests assume greater significance. For 350 years, people in the US South have practices woods burning. This was once considered a bad practice, but it is now recognized that this can assist in site preparation, release of longleaf pine seedlings, and improving production of plantations. One of the concerns with burning, both controlled and wildfire, is the release of undesirable chemicals to the atmosphere. Encroachment of wildfires on inhabited areas can threaten human life and property. And important to global warming, wildfires and controlled burning release CO{sub 2} and add to increase in CO{sub 2} concentration. Climate warming as a result of global change can cause drier forests and an increase in severity and extent of wildfires. Climate-driven changes in the structure and composition of plant communities will alter the chemical and physical properties of fuels, thereby altering susceptibility to fires.

  11. The role of moisture transport between ground and atmosphere in global change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rind, D.; Rosenzweig, C.; Stieglitz, M.

    1997-12-31

    Projections of the effect of climate change on future water availability are examined by reviewing the formulations used to calculate moisture transport between the ground and the atmosphere. General circulation models and climate change impact models have substantially different formulations for evapotranspiration, so their projections of future water availability often disagree, even though they use the same temperature and precipitation forecasts. General circulation models forecast little change in tropical and subtropical water availability, while impact models show severe water and agricultural shortages. A comparison of observations and modeling techniques shows that the parameterizations in general circulation models likely lead to an underestimate of the impacts of global warming on soil moisture and vegetation. Such errors would crucially affect the temperature and precipitation forecasts used in impact models. Some impact model evaporation formulations are probably more appropriate than those in general circulation models, but important questions remain. More observations are needed, especially in the vicinity of forests, to determine appropriate parameterizations.

  12. A Study of the Abundance and 13C/12C Ratio of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide to Advance the Scientific Understanding of Terrestrial Processes Regulating the Global Carbon Cycle

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stephen C. Piper

    2005-10-15

    The primary goal of our research program, consistent with the goals of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and funded by the terrestrial carbon processes (TCP) program of DOE, has been to improve understanding of changes in the distribution and cycling of carbon among the active land, ocean and atmosphere reservoirs, with particular emphasis on terrestrial ecosystems. Our approach is to systematically measure atmospheric CO2 to produce time series data essential to reveal temporal and spatial patterns. Additional measurements of the 13C/12C isotopic ratio of CO2 provide a basis for distinguishing organic and inorganic processes. To pursue the significance of these patterns further, our research also involved interpretations of the observations by models, measurements of inorganic carbon in sea water, and of CO2 in air near growing land plants.

  13. Gene expression profiling--Opening the black box of plant ecosystem responses to global change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leakey, A.D.B.; Ainsworth, E.A.; Bernard, S.M.; Markelz, R.J.C.; Ort, D.R.; Placella, S.A.P.; Rogers, A.; Smith, M.D.; Sudderth, E.A.; Weston, D.J.; Wullschleger, S.D.; Yuan, S.

    2009-11-01

    The use of genomic techniques to address ecological questions is emerging as the field of genomic ecology. Experimentation under environmentally realistic conditions to investigate the molecular response of plants to meaningful changes in growth conditions and ecological interactions is the defining feature of genomic ecology. Since the impact of global change factors on plant performance are mediated by direct effects at the molecular, biochemical and physiological scales, gene expression analysis promises important advances in understanding factors that have previously been consigned to the 'black box' of unknown mechanism. Various tools and approaches are available for assessing gene expression in model and non-model species as part of global change biology studies. Each approach has its own unique advantages and constraints. A first generation of genomic ecology studies in managed ecosystems and mesocosms have provided a testbed for the approach and have begun to reveal how the experimental design and data analysis of gene expression studies can be tailored for use in an ecological context.

  14. Global patterns and controls of soil organic carbon dynamics as simulated by multiple terrestrial biosphere models: Current status and future directions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Yang, Jia; Banger, Kamaljit; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Michalak, Anna M.; Cook, Robert; Ciais, Philippe; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul K.; Lei, Huimin; Mao, Jiafu; Pan, Shufen; Post, Wilfred M.; Peng, Shushi; Poulter, Benjamin; Ren, Wei; Ricciuto, Daniel; Schaefer, Kevin; Shi, Xiaoying; Tao, Bo; Wang, Weile; Wei, Yaxing; Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Bowen; Zeng, Ning

    2015-06-05

    Soil is the largest organic carbon (C) pool of terrestrial ecosystems, and C loss from soil accounts for a large proportion of land-atmosphere C exchange. Therefore, a small change in soil organic C (SOC) can affect atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and climate change. In the past decades, a wide variety of studies have been conducted to quantify global SOC stocks and soil C exchange with the atmosphere through site measurements, inventories, and empirical/process-based modeling. However, these estimates are highly uncertain, and identifying major driving forces controlling soil C dynamics remains a key research challenge. This study has compiled century-long (1901–2010) estimates of SOC storage and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) from 10 terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) in the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project and two observation-based data sets. The 10 TBM ensemble shows that global SOC estimate ranges from 425 to 2111 Pg C (1 Pg = 10¹⁵ g) with a median value of 1158 Pg C in 2010. The models estimate a broad range of Rh from 35 to 69 Pg C yr⁻¹ with a median value of 51 Pg C yr⁻¹ during 2001–2010. The largest uncertainty in SOC stocks exists in the 40–65°N latitude whereas the largest cross-model divergence in Rh are in the tropics. The modeled SOC change during 1901–2010 ranges from –70 Pg C to 86 Pg C, but in some models the SOC change has a different sign from the change of total C stock, implying very different contribution of vegetation and soil pools in determining the terrestrial C budget among models. The model ensemble-estimated mean residence time of SOC shows a reduction of 3.4 years over the past century, which accelerate C cycling through the land biosphere. All the models agreed that climate and land use changes decreased SOC stocks, while elevated atmospheric CO₂ and nitrogen deposition over intact ecosystems increased SOC stocks—even though the responses varied significantly

  15. Global patterns and controls of soil organic carbon dynamics as simulated by multiple terrestrial biosphere models: Current status and future directions

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Yang, Jia; Banger, Kamaljit; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Michalak, Anna M.; Cook, Robert; Ciais, Philippe; Hayes, Daniel; et al

    2015-06-05

    Soil is the largest organic carbon (C) pool of terrestrial ecosystems, and C loss from soil accounts for a large proportion of land-atmosphere C exchange. Therefore, a small change in soil organic C (SOC) can affect atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and climate change. In the past decades, a wide variety of studies have been conducted to quantify global SOC stocks and soil C exchange with the atmosphere through site measurements, inventories, and empirical/process-based modeling. However, these estimates are highly uncertain, and identifying major driving forces controlling soil C dynamics remains a key research challenge. This study has compiled century-longmore » (1901–2010) estimates of SOC storage and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) from 10 terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) in the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project and two observation-based data sets. The 10 TBM ensemble shows that global SOC estimate ranges from 425 to 2111 Pg C (1 Pg = 10¹⁵ g) with a median value of 1158 Pg C in 2010. The models estimate a broad range of Rh from 35 to 69 Pg C yr⁻¹ with a median value of 51 Pg C yr⁻¹ during 2001–2010. The largest uncertainty in SOC stocks exists in the 40–65°N latitude whereas the largest cross-model divergence in Rh are in the tropics. The modeled SOC change during 1901–2010 ranges from –70 Pg C to 86 Pg C, but in some models the SOC change has a different sign from the change of total C stock, implying very different contribution of vegetation and soil pools in determining the terrestrial C budget among models. The model ensemble-estimated mean residence time of SOC shows a reduction of 3.4 years over the past century, which accelerate C cycling through the land biosphere. All the models agreed that climate and land use changes decreased SOC stocks, while elevated atmospheric CO₂ and nitrogen deposition over intact ecosystems increased SOC stocks—even though the responses varied

  16. Managing the global commons decision making and conflict resolution in response to climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rayner, S. ); Naegeli, W.; Lund, P. )

    1990-07-01

    A workshop was convened to develop a better understanding of decision-making matters concerning management of the global commons and to resolve conflicts in response to climate change. This workshop report does not provide a narrative of the proceedings. The workshop program is included, as are the abstracts of the papers that were presented. Only the introductory paper on social science research by William Riebsame and the closing summary by Richard Rockwell are reprinted here. This brief report focuses instead on the deliberations of the working groups that developed during the workshop. 4 figs., 1 tab.

  17. Global climate change mitigation and sustainable forest management--The challenge of monitoring and verification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makundi, Willy R.

    1997-12-31

    In this paper, sustainable forest management is discussed within the historical and theoretical framework of the sustainable development debate. The various criteria and indicators for sustainable forest management put forth by different institutions are critically explored. Specific types of climate change mitigation policies/projects in the forest sector are identified and examined in the light of the general criteria for sustainable forest management. Areas of compatibility and contradiction between the climate mitigation objectives and the minimum criteria for sustainable forest management are identified and discussed. Emphasis is put on the problems of monitoring and verifying carbon benefits associated with such projects given their impacts on pre-existing policy objectives on sustainable forest management. The implications of such policy interactions on assignment of carbon credits from forest projects under Joint Implementation/Activities Implemented Jointly initiatives are discussed. The paper concludes that a comprehensive monitoring and verification regime must include an impact assessment on the criteria covered under other agreements such as the Biodiversity and/or Desertification Conventions. The actual carbon credit assigned to a specific project should at least take into account the negative impacts on the criteria for sustainable forest management. The value of the impacts and/or the procedure to evaluate them need to be established by interested parties such as the Councils of the respective Conventions.

  18. Final technical report. Can microbial functional traits predict the response and resilience of decomposition to global change?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Allison, Steven D.

    2015-09-24

    The role of specific micro-organisms in the carbon cycle, and their responses to environmental change, are unknown in most ecosystems. This knowledge gap limits scientists’ ability to predict how important ecosystem processes, like soil carbon storage and loss, will change with climate and other environmental factors. The investigators addressed this knowledge gap by transplanting microbial communities from different environments into new environments and measuring the response of community composition and carbon cycling over time. Using state-of-the-art sequencing techniques, computational tools, and nanotechnology, the investigators showed that microbial communities on decomposing plant material shift dramatically with natural and experimentally-imposed drought. Microbial communities also shifted in response to added nitrogen, but the effects were smaller. These changes had implications for carbon cycling, with lower rates of carbon loss under drought conditions, and changes in the efficiency of decomposition with nitrogen addition. Even when transplanted into the same conditions, microbial communities from different environments remained distinct in composition and functioning for up to one year. Changes in functioning were related to differences in enzyme gene content across different microbial groups. Computational approaches developed for this project allowed the conclusions to be tested more broadly in other ecosystems, and new computer models will facilitate the prediction of microbial traits and functioning across environments. The data and models resulting from this project benefit the public by improving the ability to predict how microbial communities and carbon cycling functions respond to climate change, nutrient enrichment, and other large-scale environmental changes.

  19. Global Climate Change: Some Implications, Opportunities, and Challenges for US Forestry

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Marland, G.

    1991-06-01

    It is widely agreed that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth`s atmosphere is increasing, that this increase is a consequence of man`s activities, and that there is significant risk that this will lead to changes in the earth`s climate. The question is now being discussed what, if anything, we should be doing to minimize and/or adapt to changes in climate. Virtually every statement on this matter; from the US Office of Technology Assessment, to the National Academy of Science, to the Nairobi Declaration on Climatic Change, includes some recommendation for planting and protecting forests. In fact, forestry is intimately involved in the climate change debate for several reasons: changing climate patterns will affect existing forests, tropical deforestation is one of the major sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, reforestation projects could remove additional carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and there is renewed interest in wood-based or other renewable fuels to replace fossil fuels. Part of the enthusiasm for forestry-related strategies in a greenhouse context is the perception that forests not only provide greenhouse benefits but also serve other desirable social objectives. This discussion will explore the current range of thinking in this area and try to stimulate additional thinking on the rationality of the forestry-based approaches and the challenges posed for US forestry.

  20. Nuclear reference materials to meet the changing needs of the global nuclear community

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martin, H.R.; Gradle, C.G.; Narayanan, U.I.; Oldham, R.D.

    1995-12-31

    New Brunswick Laboratory (NBL) serves as the U.S. Government`s certifying authority for nuclear reference materials and measurement calibration standards. In this role, NBL provides nuclear reference materials certified for chemical and/or isotopic compositions traceable to a nationally accepted, internationally compatible reference base. Emphasis is now changing as to the types of traceable nuclear reference materials needed as operations change within the Department of Energy complex and at nuclear facilities around the world. New challenges include: environmental and waste minimization issues, facilities and materials transitioning from processing to storage modes with corresponding changes in the types of measurements being performed, emphasis on requirements for characterization of waste materials, and difficulties in transporting nuclear materials and international factors, including IAEA influences. During these changing times, it is critical that traceable reference materials be provided for calibration or validation of the performance of measurement systems. This paper will describe actions taken and planned to meet the changing reference material needs of the global nuclear community.

  1. Nuclear reference materials to meet the changing needs of the global nuclear community

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martin, H.R.; Gradle, C.G.; Narayanan, U.I.; Oldham, R.D.; Mitchell, W.G.

    1995-12-31

    New Brunswick Laboratory (NBL) serves as the US Government`s Certifying Authority for nuclear reference materials and measurement calibration standards. In this role, NBL provides nuclear reference materials certified for chemical and/or isotopic compositions traceable to a nationally accepted, internationally compatible reference base. Emphasis is now changing as to the types of traceable nuclear reference materials needed as operations change within the Department of Energy (DOE) complex and at nuclear facilities around the world. Environmental and waste minimization issues, facilities and materials transitioning from processing to storage modes with corresponding changes in the types of measurements being performed, emphasis on requirements for characterization of waste materials, difficulties in transporting nuclear materials, and International factors, including International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection of excess US nuclear materials, are all contributing influences. During these changing times, ft is critical that traceable reference materials be provided for calibration or validation of the performance of measurement systems. This paper will describe actions taken and planned to meet the changing reference material needs of the global nuclear community.

  2. Agriculture and Climate Change in Global Scenarios: Why Don't the Models Agree

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Gerald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Calvin, Katherine V.; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; Mueller, C.; Reilly, J. M.; Robertson, Richard; Sands, Ronald; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs makes direct use of weather inputs. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes of key variables such as prices, production, and trade. These divergent outcomes arise from differences in model inputs and model specification. The goal of this paper is to review climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By providing common productivity drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes are reduced. All models show higher prices in 2050 because of negative productivity shocks from climate change. The magnitude of the price increases, and the adaptation responses, differ significantly across the various models. Substantial differences exist in the structural parameters affecting demand, area, and yield, and should be a topic for future research.

  3. Energy and Climate Change: 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy, and the Environment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment: Energy and Climate Change will develop and advance partnerships that focus on transitioning the world to a new ...

  4. Geologic Carbon Sequestration: Mitigating Climate Change by Injecting CO2 Underground (LBNL Summer Lecture Series)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oldenburg, Curtis M

    2009-07-21

    Summer Lecture Series 2009: Climate change provides strong motivation to reduce CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide capture and storage involves the capture, compression, and transport of CO2 to geologically favorable areas, where its injected into porous rock more than one kilometer underground for permanent storage. Oldenburg, who heads Berkeley Labs Geologic Carbon Sequestration Program, will focus on the challenges, opportunities, and research needs of this innovative technology.

  5. Geologic Carbon Sequestration: Mitigating Climate Change by Injecting CO2 Underground (LBNL Summer Lecture Series)

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Oldenburg, Curtis M [LBNL Earth Sciences Division

    2011-04-28

    Summer Lecture Series 2009: Climate change provides strong motivation to reduce CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide capture and storage involves the capture, compression, and transport of CO2 to geologically favorable areas, where its injected into porous rock more than one kilometer underground for permanent storage. Oldenburg, who heads Berkeley Labs Geologic Carbon Sequestration Program, will focus on the challenges, opportunities, and research needs of this innovative technology.

  6. A valuation of possible glacio-hydrological characteristics changes under global warming for Pamiro-Alay glaciation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ananicheva, M.D.

    1996-12-31

    Scenarios of global climate change for doubled carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is transformed into isoline maps for glaciated mountain region. Model data of monthly air temperature and precipitation are recalculated to values of annual solid precipitation and mean summer air temperature reduced to the level of 4,000 meters a.s.l. with the help of contemporary vertical gradients of air temperature and solid precipitation. The calculation algorithm is based on new techniques which analyze relationships between the spatial and altitudinal variability of meteorological parameters and their influence on snow and ice extent. Results form the basis for the calculation of the primary glaciologic and hydrologic characteristics: accumulation, ablation, melt runoff. New altitudes of main glaciological levels are calculated together with corresponding ablation and accumulation in the condition of doubled CO{sub 2}. These data are then used to produce a new spatial distribution of the input variables which can be used for improved melt water and heat resources calculation. The time period over which the model is run to obtain spatial distribution of pointed characteristics is the middle of 21 century, the situation of doubled CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere. Model output is in the form of isoline maps as well as digital data and covers the territory of Pamiro-Alay mountains and adjacent areas.

  7. A Cross-model Comparison of Global Long-term Technology Diffusion under a 2?C Climate Change Control Target

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    van der Zwaan, Bob; Rosler, Hilke; Kober, Tom; Aboumahboub, Tino; Calvin, Katherine V.; Gernaat, David; Marangoni, Giacomo; McCollum, David

    2013-11-01

    We investigate the long-term global energy technology diffusion patterns required to reach a stringent climate change target with a maximum average atmospheric temperature increase of 2C. If the anthropogenic temperature increase is to be limited to 2C, total CO2 emissions have to be reduced massively, so as to reach substantial negative values during the second half of the century. Particularly power sector CO2 emissions should become negative from around 2050 onwards according to most models used for this analysis in order to compensate for GHG emissions in other sectors where abatement is more costly. The annual additional capacity deployment intensity (expressed in GW/yr) for solar and wind energy until 2030 needs to be around that recently observed for coal-based power plants, and will have to be several times higher in the period 20302050. Relatively high agreement exists across models in terms of the aggregated low-carbon energy system cost requirements on the supply side until 2050, which amount to about 50 trillion US$.

  8. Spatial and temporal patterns of biotic exchanges of CO{sub 2} between the atmosphere and tropical landscapes and their role in the global carbon balance. Progress report of SUNY-ESF Group

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-09-01

    At SUNY ESF, our overall objective for this year was to finish refining the methods used to convert our previous models of global carbon flux and land use change into a GIS-compatible format. We now have the ability to obtain, convert, and incorporate geographic data into spatial simulation models that describe past carbon exchange patterns, as well as predict future landuse change and carbon exchange. Our initial tests of this model in Peninsula Malaysia have been very promising, in that we are able to successfully predict land use from 1972 to 1982 and even from 1870 to 1970. In this context ``successful`` means that we classify in the model from 80 to 95 percent of the cells correctly, depending upon the number of land use types we try to predict. We are now preparing to apply this model to the entire continent of Africa and to Central America.

  9. Soil carbon sequestration and land use change associated with biofuel production: Empirical evidence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qin, Zhangcai; Dunn, Jennifer B.; Kwon, Hoyoung; Mueller, Steffen; Wander, Michelle M.

    2016-01-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) change can be a major impact of land use change (LUC) associated with biofuel feedstock production. By collecting and analyzing data from worldwide field observations with major LUCs from cropland, grassland and forest to lands producing biofuel crops (i.e., corn, switchgrass, Miscanthus, poplar and willow), we were able to estimate SOC response ratios and sequestration rates and evaluate the effects of soil depth and time scale on SOC change. Both the amount and rate of SOC change were highly dependent on the specific land transition. Irrespective of soil depth or time horizon, cropland conversions resulted in an overall SOC gain of 6-14% relative to initial SOC level, while conversion from grassland or forest to corn (without residue removal) or poplar caused significant carbon loss (9-35%). No significant SOC changes were observed in land converted from grasslands or forests to switchgrass, Miscanthus or willow. The SOC response ratios were similar in both 0-30 and 0-100 cm soil depths in most cases, suggesting SOC changes in deep soil and that use of top soil only for SOC accounting in biofuel life cycle analysis (LCA) might underestimate total SOC changes. Soil carbon sequestration rates varied greatly among studies and land transition types. Generally, the rates of SOC change tended to be the greatest during the 10 years following land conversion, and had declined to approach 0 within about 20 years for most LUCs. Observed trends in SOC change were generally consistent with previous reports. Soil depth and duration of study significantly influence SOC change rates and so should be considered in carbon emission accounting in biofuel LCA. High uncertainty remains for many perennial systems, field trials and modeling efforts are needed to determine the site- and system-specific rates and direction of change associated with their production.

  10. National Institute for Global Environmental Change. Final Technical Report 1990-2007

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Athanasios Toulopoulos

    2007-11-01

    Research conducted by the six NIGEC Regional Centers during recent years is reported. An overview of the NIGEC program from its beginnings provides a description and evaluation of the program's vision, strategy and major accomplishments. The program's purpose was to support academic research on environmental change in regions of the country that had historically received relatively little federal funding. The overall vision of NIGEC may be stated as the performance of academic research on the regional interactions between ecosystems and climate. NIGEC's research presents important evidence on the impacts of climate variability and change, and in some cases adaptability, for a broad range of both managed and unmanaged ecosystems, and has thereby documented significant regional issues on the environmental responses to climate change. NIGEC's research has demonstrated large regional differences in the atmospheric carbon exchange budgets of croplands and forests, that there are significant variations of this exchange on diurnal, synoptic, seasonal and interannual time scales due to atmospheric variability (including temperature, precipitation and cloudiness), and that management practices and past history have predominant effects in grasslands and croplands. It is the mid-latitude forests, however, that have received more attention in NIGEC than any other specific ecosystem, and NIGEC's initiation of and participation in the AmeriFlux program, network of carbon flux measurement sites in North American old-growth forests, is generally considered to be its most significant single accomplishment. By including appendices with complete listings of NIGEC publications, principal investigators and participating institutions, this report may also serve as a useful comprehensive documentation of NIGEC.

  11. Storing Carbon in Agricultural Soils to Help Head-Off Global Warming and to Combat Desertification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rosenberg, Norman J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.

    2001-12-31

    We know for sure that addition of organic matter to soil increases water-holding capacity, imparts fertility with the addition of nutrients, increases soil aggregation and improves tilth. Depeing on it's type, organic matter contains between 40 and 60% carbon. Using agricultural management practices to increase the amount of organic matter and carbon in soils can be an effective strategy to offset carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere as well as to improve the quality of the soil and slow or prevent desertification.

  12. Integrated Assessment of Global Water Scarcity over the 21st Century under Multiple Climate Change Mitigation Policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and a global population of 14 billion by 2095, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demand for water exceeds the amount of water availability in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 20% and 27% of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change.

  13. TECHNOLOGY IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODEL: THE POTENTIAL REGIONAL DEPLOYMENT OF CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CO2 STABILIZATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edmonds, James A.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Friedman, S. Julio; Wise, Marshall A.

    2007-11-19

    Technology is a critically important determinant of the cost of meeting any environmental objective. In this paper we examine the role of a particular technology, carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), in the stabilization of the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). While CCS is not presently deployed at scale, it has the potential to deploy extensively during the course of the 21st century if concentrations of atmospheric CO2 are to be stabilized. The existing research literature has focused largely on the cost of capturing CO2, with the implicit assumption that storage options would be relatively cheap, plentiful and located in close proximity to future CO2 point sources. However, CO2 capture and storage will take place at the local and regional scale and will compete with other mitigation options that also exhibit local or regional differences. This paper provides an initial examination of the implications of regionally disaggregated demand for and supply of CO2 storage reservoirs within the context of a globally disaggregated, long-term analysis of both the geology and economics of CCS. This analysis suggests that some regions will see their ability to deploy CCS systems constrained by a lack of quality target reservoirs relative to the demand for storage placed upon these candidate geologic storage reservoirs by large stationary CO2 point sources within the region. Other regions appear to have sufficient storage capacity to easily carry them into the 22nd century. We examined the regional and global economic implications of the distribution of these sources and sinks in meeting various potential limits to atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This analysis confirms that CCS is an important potential response to climate change throughout the 21st century and a technology that can play a key role in controlling the cost of addressing climate change.

  14. International potential of IGCC technology for use in reducing global warming and climate change emissions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lau, F.S.

    1996-12-31

    High efficiency advanced coal-based technologies such as Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) that can assist in reducing CO{sub 2} emissions which contribute to Global Warming and Climate Change are becoming commercially available. U-GAS is an advanced gasification technology that can be used in many applications to convert coal in a high efficiency manner that will reduce the total amount of CO{sub 2} produced by requiring less coal-based fuel per unit of energy output. This paper will focus on the status of the installation and performance of the IGT U-GAS gasifiers which were installed at the Shanghai Cooking and Chemical Plant General located in Shanghai, China. Its use in future IGCC project for the production of power and the benefits of IGCC in reducing CO{sub 2} emissions through its high efficiency operation will be discussed.

  15. Global patterns and controls of soil organic carbon dynamics as simulated by multiple terrestrial biosphere models. Current status and future directions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Yang, Jia; Banger, Kamaljit; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Michalak, A. M.; Cook, Robert B.; Ciais, Philippe; Hayes, Daniel J.; Huang, Maoyi; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul K.; Lei, Huimin; Mao, Jiafu; Pan, Shufen; Post, W. M.; Peng, Shushi; Poulter, Benjamin; Ren, Wei; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Schaefer, Kevin; Shi, Xiaoying; Tao, Bo; Wang, Weile; Wei, Yaxing; Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Bowen; Zeng, Ning

    2015-06-05

    Soil is the largest organic carbon (C) pool of terrestrial ecosystems, and loss from soil accounts for a large pro portion of land-atmosphere C exchange. Due to large pool size and variable residence time from years to millennia, even small changes in soil organic C(SOC) have substantial effects on the terrestrial C budget, thereby affecting atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)concentration and climate change. In the past decades, a wide variety of studies have been conducted to quantify global SOC stocks and soil exchange with the atmosphere through site measurements, inventories, and empirical/process-based modeling. However, these estimates are highly uncertain and identifying major driving forces controlling soil C storage and fluxes remains a key research challenge his study has compiled century-long (1901-2010)estimates of SOC storage and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) from ten terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) in the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP) and two observation based datasets. The ten-TBM ensemble shows that global SOC estimate range from 4 to 2111 Pg C (1 Pg = 1015g) with a median value of 1158 Pg C33 in 2010. Modeling approach estimates a broad range of Rh from 35 to 69 Pg C yr-1 with a median value of 51Pg C yr-1 during 200–2010. The largest uncertainty in SOC stocks exists in the 40–65°N latitude band while Rh differences are the largest in the tropics. All the models agreed that climate and land use changes have decreased SOC stocks while elevated CO2 and atmospheric nitrogen deposition have increased SOC stocks though the response varied significantly among models. Model representations of temperature and moisture sensitivity,nutrient limitation and land use partially explain the divergent estimates of global SOC stocks and soil fluxes in this study. In addition, major sources of uncertainty from model estimation include exclusion of SOC storage in

  16. Modeling global atmospheric CO2 with improved emission inventories and CO2 production from the oxidation of other carbon species

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nassar, Ray; Jones, DBA; Suntharalingam, P; Chen, j.; Andres, Robert Joseph; Wecht, K. J.; Yantosca, R. M.; Kulawik, SS; Bowman, K; Worden, JR; Machida, T; Matsueda, H

    2010-01-01

    The use of global three-dimensional (3-D) models with satellite observations of CO2 in inverse modeling studies is an area of growing importance for understanding Earth s carbon cycle. Here we use the GEOS-Chem model (version 8-02-01) CO2 mode with multiple modifications in order to assess their impact on CO2 forward simulations. Modifications include CO2 surface emissions from shipping (0.19 PgC yr 1), 3-D spatially-distributed emissions from aviation (0.16 PgC yr 1), and 3-D chemical production of CO2 (1.05 PgC yr 1). Although CO2 chemical production from the oxidation of CO, CH4 and other carbon gases is recognized as an important contribution to global CO2, it is typically accounted for by conversion from its precursors at the surface rather than in the free troposphere. We base our model 3-D spatial distribution of CO2 chemical production on monthly-averaged loss rates of CO (a key precursor and intermediate in the oxidation of organic carbon) and apply an associated surface correction for inventories that have counted emissions of CO2 precursors as CO2. We also explore the benefit of assimilating satellite observations of CO into GEOS-Chem to obtain an observation-based estimate of the CO2 chemical source. The CO assimilation corrects for an underestimate of atmospheric CO abundances in the model, resulting in increases of as much as 24% in the chemical source during May June 2006, and increasing the global annual estimate of CO2 chemical production from 1.05 to 1.18 Pg C. Comparisons of model CO2 with measurements are carried out in order to investigate the spatial and temporal distributions that result when these new sources are added. Inclusion of CO2 emissions from shipping and aviation are shown to increase the global CO2 latitudinal gradient by just over 0.10 ppm (3%), while the inclusion of CO2 chemical production (and the surface correction) is shown to decrease the latitudinal gradient by about 0.40 ppm (10%) with a complex spatial structure

  17. Life cycle inventory analysis of regenerative thermal oxidation of air emissions from oriented strand board facilities in Minnesota - a perspective of global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nicholson, W.J.

    1997-12-31

    Life cycle inventory analysis has been applied to the prospective operation of regenerative thermal oxidation (RTO) technology at oriented strand board plants at Bemidji (Line 1) and Cook, Minnesota. The net system destruction of VOC`s and carbon monoxide, and at Cook a small quantity of particulate, has a very high environmental price in terms of energy and water use, global warming potential, sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions, solids discharged to water, and solid waste deposited in landfills. The benefit of VOC destruction is identified as minor in terms of ground level ozone at best and possibly slightly detrimental. Recognition of environmental tradeoffs associated with proposed system changes is critical to sound decision-making. There are more conventional ways to address carbon monoxide emissions than combustion in RTO`s. In an environment in which global warming is a concern, fuel supplemental combustion for environmental control does not appear warranted. Consideration of non-combustion approaches to address air emission issues at the two operations is recommended. 1 ref., 5 tabs.

  18. Global climate change and international security. Report on a conference held at Argonne National Laboratory, May 8--10, 1991

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, M.

    1991-12-31

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  19. Global warming and climate change - predictive models for temperate and tropical regions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Malini, B.H.

    1997-12-31

    Based on the assumption of 4{degree}C increase of global temperature by the turn of 21st century due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases an attempt is made to study the possible variations in different climatic regimes. The predictive climatic water balance model for Hokkaido island of Japan (a temperate zone) indicates the possible occurrence of water deficit for two to three months, which is a unknown phenomenon in this region at present. Similarly, India which represents tropical region also will experience much drier climates with increased water deficit conditions. As a consequence, the thermal region of Hokkaido which at present is mostly Tundra and Micro thermal will change into a Meso thermal category. Similarly, the moisture regime which at present supports per humid (A2, A3 and A4) and Humid (B4) climates can support A1, B4, B3, B2 and B1 climates indicating a shift towards drier side of the climatic spectrum. Further, the predictive modes of both the regions have indicated increased evapotranspiration rates. Although there is not much of change in the overall thermal characteristics of the Indian region the moisture regime indicates a clear shift towards the aridity in the country.

  20. Impacts of global warming on climate change over East Asia as simulated by 15 GCMs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zong-ci Zhao; Xiaodong Li

    1997-12-31

    About 15 GCMs (GFDL1, GISS, LLNL, MPI, OSU, UKMOL, UKMOH, GCMs90-92, GFDL2, NCAR, OPYC, LSG, HADL, GCMs95) obtained from the IPCC WG 1 1990, 1992 and 1995 reports have been chosen to examine the impacts of global warming, on the climate chance over East Asia. Although the models scenarios of the human activities were different for the different GCMs, the climate change over East Asia (70E-140E, 15N-60N) for tile doubled CO{sub 2} as simulated by about 15 GCMs have been analysed. The Simulations shown that the temperature might increased by about 0.5 - 1.5 C over East Asia, especially in winter and northwestern parts of East Asia. The precipitation might increase in northwestern and northeastern parts of East Asia and decrease in the central part of East Asia. The evaluations and assessments of the GCMs over East Asia have indicated that the GCMs have the abilities to simulate the climate change over East Asia, especially for the temperature and the winter season. There are some uncertainties for the simulations to compare with the observations, especially for tile precipitation and tile summer season.

  1. Evaluation of Global Monsoon Precipitation Changes based on Five Reanalysis Datasets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin, Renping; Zhou, Tianjun; Qian, Yun

    2014-02-01

    With the motivation to identify whether or not a reasonably simulated atmospheric circulation would necessarily lead to a successful reproduction of monsoon precipitation, the performances of five sets of reanalysis data (NCEP2, ERA40, JRA25, ERA-Interim and MERRA) in reproducing the climatology, interannual variation and long-term trend of global monsoon (GM) precipitation are comprehensively evaluated. In order to better understand the variability and long-term trend of GM precipitation, we also examined the major components of water budget, including evaporation, water vapor convergence and the change in local water vapor storage, based on five reanalysis datasets. The results show that all five reanalysis data reasonably reproduce the climatology of GM precipitation. The ERA-Interim (NCEP2) shows the highest (lowest) skill among the five datasets. The observed GM precipitation shows an increasing tendency during 1979-2001 along with a strong interannual variability, which is reasonably reproduced by the five sets of reanalysis data. The observed increasing trend of GM precipitation is dominated by the contribution from the North African, North American and Australian monsoons. All five data fail in reproducing the increasing tendency of North African monsoon precipitation. The wind convergence term in water budget equation dominate the GM precipitation variation, indicating a consistency between the GM precipitation and the seasonal change of prevailing wind.

  2. Project Summary (2012-2015) – Carbon Dynamics of the Greater Everglades Watershed and Implications of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hinkle, Ross; Benscoter, Brian; Comas, Xavier; Sumner, David; DeAngelis, Donald

    2015-04-07

    Carbon Dynamics of the Greater Everglades Watershed and Implications of Climate Change The objectives of this project are to: 1) quantify above- and below-ground carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems along a seasonal hydrologic gradient in the headwaters region of the Greater Everglades watershed; 2) develop budgets of ecosystem gaseous carbon exchange (carbon dioxide and methane) across the seasonal hydrologic gradient; 3) assess the impact of climate drivers on ecosystem carbon exchange in the Greater Everglades headwater region; and 4) integrate research findings with climate-driven terrestrial ecosystem carbon models to examine the potential influence of projected future climate change on regional carbon cycling. Note: this project receives a one-year extension past the original performance period - David Sumner (USGS) is not included in this extension.

  3. Integrated Assessment of Global Climate Change | U.S. DOE Office...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    ... as found at the energy, water, and land nexus and in connected infrastructure dynamics . ... of natural resources, food, and water, and shifts in global economies, ...

  4. The future of carbon sequestration. 2nd ed.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2007-04-15

    The report is an overview of the opportunities for carbon sequestration to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It provides a concise look at what is driving interest in carbon sequestration, the challenges faced in implementing carbon sequestration projects, and the current and future state of carbon sequestration. Topics covered in the report include: Overview of the climate change debate; Explanation of the global carbon cycle; Discussion of the concept of carbon sequestration; Review of current efforts to implement carbon sequestration; Analysis and comparison of carbon sequestration component technologies; Review of the economic drivers of carbon sequestration project success; and Discussion of the key government and industry initiatives supporting carbon sequestration.

  5. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory interests and capabilities for research on the ecological effects of global climatic and atmospheric change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Amthor, J.S.; Houpis, J.L.; Kercher, J.R.; Ledebuhr, A.; Miller, N.L.; Penner, J.E.; Robison, W.L.; Taylor, K.E.

    1994-09-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has interests and capabilities in all three types of research that must be conducted in order to understand and predict effects of global atmospheric and climatic (i.e., environmental) changes on ecological systems and their functions (ecosystem function is perhaps most conveniently defined as mass and energy exchange and storage). These three types of research are: (1) manipulative experiments with plants and ecosystems; (2) monitoring of present ecosystem, landscape, and global exchanges and pools of energy, elements, and compounds that play important roles in ecosystem function or the physical climate system, and (3) mechanistic (i.e., hierarchic and explanatory) modeling of plant and ecosystem responses to global environmental change. Specific experimental programs, monitoring plans, and modeling activities related to evaluation of ecological effects of global environmental change that are of interest to, and that can be carried out by LLNL scientists are outlined. Several projects have the distinction of integrating modeling with empirical studies resulting in an Integrated Product (a model or set of models) that DOE or any federal policy maker could use to assess ecological effects. The authors note that any scheme for evaluating ecological effects of atmospheric and climatic change should take into account exceptional or sensitive species, in particular, rare, threatened, or endangered species.

  6. Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-01-01

    While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.

  7. International impacts of global climate change: Testimony to House Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations, Export Financing and Related Programs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fulkerson, W.; Cushman, R.M.; Marland, G.; Rayner, S.

    1989-02-21

    International impacts of global climate change are those for which the important consequences arise because of national sovereignty. Such impacts could be of two types: (1) migrations across national borders of people, of resources (such as agricultural productivity, or surface water, or natural ecosystems), of effluents, or of patterns of commerce; and (2) changes to the way nations use and manage their resources, particularly fossil fuels and forests, as a consequence of international concern over the global climate. Actions by a few resource-dominant nations may affect the fate of all. These two types of international impacts raise complex equity issues because one nation may perceive itself as gaining at the expense of its neighbors, or it may perceive itself as a victim of the actions of others. 11 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  8. International Impacts of Global Climate Change: Testimony to House Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations, Export Financing and Related Programs

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Fulkerson, W.; Cushman, R. M.; Marland, G.; Rayner, S.

    1989-02-21

    International impacts of global climate change are those for which the important consequences arise because of national sovereignty. Such impacts could be of two types: (1) migrations across national borders of people, of resources (such as agricultural productivity, or surface water, or natural ecosystems), of effluents, or of patterns of commerce; and (2) changes to the way nations use and manage their resources, particularly fossil fuels and forests, as a consequence of international concern over the global climate. Actions by a few resource-dominant nations may affect the fate of all. These two types of international impacts raise complex equity issues because one nation may perceive itself as gaining at the expense of its neighbors, or it may perceive itself as a victim of the actions of others.

  9. Pitch-based carbon foam heat sink with phase change material

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Klett, James W. (Knoxville, TN); Burchell, Timothy D. (Oak Ridge, TN)

    2002-01-01

    A process for producing a carbon foam heat sink is disclosed which obviates the need for conventional oxidative stabilization. The process employs mesophase or isotropic pitch and a simplified process using a single mold. The foam has a relatively uniform distribution of pore sizes and a highly aligned graphic structure in the struts. The foam material can be made into a composite which is useful in high temperature sandwich panels for both thermal and structural applications. The foam is encased and filled with a phase change material to provide a very efficient heat sink device.

  10. Pitch-based carbon foam heat sink with phase change material

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Klett, James W.; Burchell, Timothy D.

    2007-01-23

    A process for producing a carbon foam heat sink is disclosed which obviates the need for conventional oxidative stabilization. The process employs mesophase or isotropic pitch and a simplified process using a single mold. The foam has a relatively uniform distribution of pore sizes and a highly aligned graphic structure in the struts. The foam material can be made into a composite which is useful in high temperature sandwich panels for both thermal and structural applications. The foam is encased and filled with a phase change material to provide a very efficient heat sink device.

  11. Pitch-based carbon foam heat sink with phase change material

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Klett, James W.; Burchell, Timothy D.

    2007-01-02

    A process for producing a carbon foam heat sink is disclosed which obviates the need for conventional oxidative stabilization. The process employs mesophase or isotropic pitch and a simplified process using a single mold. The foam has a relatively uniform distribution of pore sizes and a highly aligned graphic structure in the struts. The foam material can be made into a composite which is useful in high temperature sandwich panels for both thermal and structural applications. The foam is encased and filled with a phase change material to provide a very efficient heat sink device.

  12. Pitch-based carbon foam heat sink with phase change material

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Klett, James W.; Burchell, Timothy D.

    2004-08-24

    A process for producing a carbon foam heat sink is disclosed which obviates the need for conventional oxidative stabilization. The process employs mesophase or isotropic pitch and a simplified process using a single mold. The foam has a relatively uniform distribution of pore sizes and a highly aligned graphic structure in the struts. The foam material can be made into a composite which is useful in high temperature sandwich panels for both thermal and structural applications. The foam is encased and filled with a phase change material to provide a very efficient heat sink device.

  13. Pitch-based carbon foam heat sink with phase change material

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Klett, James W.; Burchell, Timothy D.

    2006-03-21

    A process for producing a carbon foam heat sink is disclosed which obviates the need for conventional oxidative stabilization. The process employs mesophase or isotropic pitch and a simplified process using a single mold. The foam has a relatively uniform distribution of pore sizes and a highly aligned graphic structure in the struts. The foam material can be made into a composite which is useful in high temperature sandwich panels for both thermal and structural applications. The foam is encased and filled with a phase change material to provide a very efficient heat sink device.

  14. Pitch-based carbon foam heat sink with phase change material

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Klett, James W.; Burchell, Timothy D.

    2000-01-01

    A process for producing a carbon foam heat sink is disclosed which obviates the need for conventional oxidative stabilization. The process employs mesophase or isotropic pitch and a simplified process using a single mold. The foam has a relatively uniform distribution of pore sizes and a highly aligned graphic structure in the struts. The foam material can be made into a composite which is useful in high temperature sandwich panels for both thermal and structural applications. The foam is encased and filled with a phase change material to provide a very efficient heat sink device.

  15. Comparison of Global Model Results from the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) with Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) Manipulation Experiments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, Jim; Fung, Inez; Thornton, Peter E; Covey, Curtis; Bonan, Gordon; Running, Steven; Norby, Richard J

    2008-01-01

    Free-Air CO{sub 2} Enrichment (FACE) manipulation experiments have been carried out at a handful of sites to gauge the response of the biosphere to significant increases in atmospheric [CO{sub 2}]. Early synthesis results from four temperate forest sites suggest that the response of net primary productivity (NPP) is conserved across a broad range of productivity with a stimulation at the median of 23 {+-} 2% when the surrounding air [CO{sub 2}] was raised to 550{approx}ppm. As a part of the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP), a community-based model-data comparison activity, the authors have performed a global FACE modeling experiment using two terrestrial biogeochemistry modules, CLM3-CASA and CLM3-CN, coupled to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM). The two models were forced with an improved NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set and reconstructed atmospheric [CO{sub 2}] and N deposition data through 1997. At the beginning of 1997 in the transient simulations, global atmospheric [CO{sub 2}] was abruptly raised to 550{approx}ppm, the target value used at the FACE sites. In the control runs, [CO{sub 2}] continued to rise following observations until 2004, after which it was held constant out to year 2100. In both simulations, the last 25 years of reanalysis forcing and a constant N deposition were applied after year 2004. Across all forest biomes, the NPP responses from both models are weaker than those reported for the four FACE sites. Moreover, model responses vary widely geographically with a decreasing trend of NPP increases from 40{sup o}N to 70{sup o}N. For CLM3-CASA, the largest responses occur in arid regions of western North America and central Asia, suggesting that responses are most strongly influenced by increased water use efficiency for this model. CLM3-CN exhibits consistently weaker responses than CLM3-CASA' with the strongest responses in central Asia, but significantly constrained by N

  16. Land use change and carbon exchange in the tropics. I. Detailed estimates for Costa Rice, Panama, Peru, and Bolivia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hall, C.A.S.; Detwiler, R.P.; Bogdonoff, P.; Underhill, S.

    1985-01-01

    This group, composed of modelers working in conjunction with tropical ecologists, has produced a simulation model that quantifies the net carbon exchange between tropical vegetation and the atmosphere due to land use change. The model calculates this net exchange by combining estimates of land use change with several estimates of the carbon stored in tropical vegetation and general assumptions about the fate of cleared vegetation. In this report, the authors use estimates of land use and carbon of land use and carbon storage organized into six life zone (sensu Holdridge) categories to calculate the exchange between the atmosphere and the vegetation of four tropical countries. Their analyses of these countries indicate that this life zone approach has several advantages because (a) the carbon content of vegetation varies significantly among life zones, (b) much of the land use change occurs in life zones of only moderate carbon storage, and (c) the fate of cleared vegetation varies among life zones. Their analyses also emphasize the importance of distinguishing between temporary and permanent land use change, as the recovery of vegetation on abandoned areas decreases the net release of carbon due to clearing. They include sensitivity analysis of those factors that they found to be important but are difficult to quantify at present.

  17. Carbon Capture and Storage, 2008

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2009-03-19

    The U.S. Department of Energy is researching the safe implementation of a technology called carbon sequestration, also known as carbon capture and storage, or CCS. Based on an oilfield practice, this approach stores carbon dioxide, or CO2 generated from human activities for millennia as a means to mitigate global climate change. In 2003, the Department of Energys National Energy Technology Laboratory formed seven Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships to assess geologic formations suitable for storage and to determine the best approaches to implement carbon sequestration in each region. This video describes the work of these partnerships.

  18. Carbon Capture and Storage, 2008

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2010-01-08

    The U.S. Department of Energy is researching the safe implementation of a technology called carbon sequestration, also known as carbon capture and storage, or CCS. Based on an oilfield practice, this approach stores carbon dioxide, or CO2 generated from human activities for millennia as a means to mitigate global climate change. In 2003, the Department of Energys National Energy Technology Laboratory formed seven Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships to assess geologic formations suitable for storage and to determine the best approaches to implement carbon sequestration in each region. This video describes the work of these partnerships.

  19. Moisture Flux Convergence in Regional and Global Climate Models: Implications for Droughts in the Southwestern United States Under Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gao, Yanhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Salathe, E.; Dominguez, Francina; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-05-10

    The water cycle of the southwestern United States (SW) is dominated by winter storms that maintain a positive annual net precipitation. Analysis of the control and future climate from four pairs of regional and global climate models (RCMs and GCMs) shows that the RCMs simulate a higher fraction of transient eddy moisture fluxes because the hydrodynamic instabilities associated with flow over complex terrain are better resolved. Under global warming, this enables the RCMs to capture the response of transient eddies to increased atmospheric stability that allows more moisture to converge on the windward side of the mountains by blocking. As a result, RCMs simulate enhanced transient eddy moisture convergence in the SW compared to GCMs, although both robustly simulate drying due to enhanced moisture divergence by the divergent mean flow in a warmer climate. This enhanced convergence leads to reduced susceptibility to hydrological change in the RCMs compared to GCMs.

  20. The lifetime of carbon capture and storage as a climate-change mitigation technology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Juanes, Ruben

    2013-12-30

    In carbon capture and storage (CCS), CO2 is captured at power plants and then injected underground into reservoirs like deep saline aquifers for long-term storage. While CCS may be critical for the continued use of fossil fuels in a carbon-constrained world, the deployment of CCS has been hindered by uncertainty in geologic storage capacities and sustainable injection rates, which has contributed to the absence of concerted government policy. Here, we clarify the potential of CCS to mitigate emissions in the United States by developing a storage-capacity supply curve that, unlike current large-scale capacity estimates, is derived from the fluid mechanics of CO2 injection and trapping and incorporates injection-rate constraints. We show that storage supply is a dynamic quantity that grows with the duration of CCS, and we interpret the lifetime of CCS as the time for which the storage supply curve exceeds the storage demand curve from CO2 production. We show that in the United States, if CO2 production from power generation continues to rise at recent rates, then CCS can store enough CO2 to stabilize emissions at current levels for at least 100 years. This result suggests that the large-scale implementation of CCS is a geologically viable climate-change mitigation option in the United States over the next century.

  1. Building umbrellas or arks? three alternatives to carbon credits and offsets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sovacool, Benjamin K.

    2010-03-15

    Carbon credit markets suffer seemingly inescapable flaws that may justify alternative approaches such as carbon taxes, a complete phase-out of carbon dioxide emissions, or a global carbon fund. In the years to come, we must remember that credits are not the only sensible policy options for responding to climate change. (author)

  2. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-08-25

    In this paper, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumpingmore » scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change

  3. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-08-25

    In this paper, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change impact

  4. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-08-25

    Abstract In this study, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change

  5. Response of a tundra ecosystem to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and CO{sub 2}-induced climate change. Annual technical report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oechel, W.C.

    1992-04-01

    Northern ecosystems contain up to 455 Gt of C in the soil active layer and upper permafrost. The soil carbon in these layers is equivalent to approximately 60% of the carbon currently in the atmosphere as CO{sub 2}. Much of this carbon is stored in the soil as dead organic matter. Its fate is subject to the net effects of global change on the plant and soil systems of northern ecosystems. The arctic alone contains about 60 Gt C, 90% of which is present in the soil active layer and upper permafrost. The arctic is assumed to have been a sink for CO{sub 2} during the historic and recent geologic past. The arctic has the potential to be a very large, long-term source or sink of CO{sub 2} with respect to the atmosphere. In situ experimental manipulations of atmospheric CO{sub 2}, indicated that there is little effect of elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} on leaf level photosynthesis or whole-ecosystem CO{sub 2} flux over the course of weeks to years, respectively. However, there may be longer- term ecosystem responses to elevated CO{sub 2} that could ultimately affect ecosystem CO{sub 2} balance. In addition to atmospheric CO{sub 2}, climate may affect net ecosystem carbon balance. Recent results indicate that the arctic has become a source of CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere. This change coincides with recent climatic variation in the arctic, and suggests a positive feedback of arctic ecosystems on atmospheric CO{sub 2} and global change. The research proposed in this application has four principal aspects: (A) Long-term response of arctic plants and ecosystems to elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2}; (B) Circumpolar patterns of net ecosystem CO{sub 2} flux; (C) In situ controls by temperature and moisture on net ecosystem CO{sub 2} flux; (D) Scaling of CO{sub 2} flux from plot, to landscape, to regional scales (In conjunction with research proposed for NSF support).

  6. Using an Explicit Emission Tagging Method in Global Modeling of Source-Receptor Relationships for Black Carbon in the Arctic: Variations, Sources and Transport Pathways

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Hailong; Rasch, Philip J.; Easter, Richard C.; Singh, Balwinder; Zhang, Rudong; Ma, Po-Lun; Qian, Yun; Ghan, Steven J.; Beagley, Nathaniel

    2014-11-27

    We introduce an explicit emission tagging technique in the Community Atmosphere Model to quantify source-region-resolved characteristics of black carbon (BC), focusing on the Arctic. Explicit tagging of BC source regions without perturbing the emissions makes it straightforward to establish source-receptor relationships and transport pathways, providing a physically consistent and computationally efficient approach to produce a detailed characterization of the destiny of regional BC emissions and the potential for mitigation actions. Our analysis shows that the contributions of major source regions to the global BC burden are not proportional to the respective emissions due to strong region-dependent removal rates and lifetimes, while the contributions to BC direct radiative forcing show a near-linear dependence on their respective contributions to the burden. Distant sources contribute to BC in remote regions mostly in the mid- and upper troposphere, having much less impact on lower-level concentrations (and deposition) than on burden. Arctic BC concentrations, deposition and source contributions all have strong seasonal variations. Eastern Asia contributes the most to the wintertime Arctic burden. Northern Europe emissions are more important to both surface concentration and deposition in winter than in summer. The largest contribution to Arctic BC in the summer is from Northern Asia. Although local emissions contribute less than 10% to the annual mean BC burden and deposition within the Arctic, the per-emission efficiency is much higher than for major non-Arctic sources. The interannual variability (1996-2005) due to meteorology is small in annual mean BC burden and radiative forcing but is significant in yearly seasonal means over the Arctic. When a slow aging treatment of BC is introduced, the increase of BC lifetime and burden is source-dependent. Global BC forcing-per-burden efficiency also increases primarily due to changes in BC vertical distributions. The

  7. Modelling vegetation dynamics at global scale due to climate changes: Comparison of two approaches

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Belotelov, N.V.; Bogatyrev, B.G.; Lobanov, A.I.

    1996-12-31

    Climate changes will influence vegetation dynamics. One of the ways of forecasting these changes is the creation of mathematical models describing vegetation dynamics. Computer experiments can then be conducted under climate change scenarios. Two main approaches are used to create such models. The first approach is based on a bioclimatic dynamic approach. The second approach is based on modelling the main eco-physiological processes. The bioclimatic dynamic approach consists of hypotheses about vegetation types or biomes, and their interrelationships with climate. In the eco-physiological approach, a detailed description of the processes, such as production, mortality, plants migration and their competition is presented. A number of computer experiments has been conducted for several climatic scenario for Russia and the whole world. A qualitative comparison of the results with the results of an earlier bioclimatic model has been done.

  8. Global climate change and maize production in Spain: Risk assessment and impacts of weather on yields

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Feijoo, M.L.; Mestre, F.; Iglesias, A.; Rosenzweig, C.

    1996-12-31

    The study evaluates the potential effect of climate change on maize production in Spain, combining climate models, a crop productivity model, a decision support system and a yield-response model. The study was carried out for two agricultural regions that include the largest areas of Spain where maize is grown as a high input crop. The paper combines the output from a crop model with different techniques of analysis. The scenarios used in this study were generated from the output of two General Circulation Models (GCMs): the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model (GISS) and the Canadian Climate Change Model (CCCM). The study also includes a preliminary evaluation of the potential changes in monetary returns taking into account the possible variability of grain yields and prices, using mean-Gini stochastic dominance (MGSD). A yield response model was estimated using simulated data from the crop model. Weather variables are included. Typically, temperature and precipitation are the only weather variables included in these models. However, solar radiation is another important climate factor for plant growth and development and were included in the yield response model.

  9. Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy: Meeting US global climate change action plan commitments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anderson, A.F.

    1994-12-31

    The subject describes how the US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy will help meet the US goal of returning US greenhouse gas emissions to their 1990 levels by the year 2000. On October 19, 1993, President Clinton and Vice President Gore announced the publication of the Climate Change Action Plan. The DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy has a major role in implementing many of the initiatives contained in the Plan. The paper will outline the initiatives current programs, and demonstrate how once implemented, the strategy will help to stem US greenhouse gas emissions. The paper will also discuss how DOE in implementing it`s Climate Change Action Plan strategy, will work with the EPA to achieve a cost-effective strategy that will stem greenhouse gas emissions through public/private partnerships. Although the focus of this paper will be the connection between current programs and Clinton Administration`s year 2000 goal, it will also discuss a longer-term vision for reducing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases beyond the year 2000.

  10. Reconciling Change in Oi-Horizon Carbon-14 with Mass Loss for an Oak Forest

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanson, Paul J; Swanston, Christopher W.; Garten Jr, Charles T; Todd Jr, Donald E; Trumbore, Susan E.

    2005-01-01

    First-year litter decomposition was estimated for an upland-oak forest ecosystem using enrichment or dilution of the 14C-signature of the Oi-horizon. These isotopically-based mass-loss estimates were contrasted with measured mass-loss rates from past litterbag studies. Mass-loss derived from changes in the 14C-signature of the Oi-horizon suggested mean mass loss over 9 months of 45% which was higher than the corresponding 9-month rate extrapolated from litterbag studies (~35%). Greater mass loss was expected from the isotopic approach because litterbags are known to limit mass loss processes driven by soil macrofauna (e.g., fragmentation and comminution). Although the 14C-isotope approach offers the advantage of being a non-invasive method, it exhibited high variability that undermined its utility as an alternative to routine litterbag mass loss methods. However, the 14C approach measures the residence time of C in the leaf litter, rather than the time it takes for leaves to disappear; hence radiocarbon measures reflect C immobilization and recycling in the microbial pool, and do not necessarily replicate results from litterbag mass loss. The commonly applied two-compartment isotopic mixing model was appropriate for estimating decomposition from isotopic enrichment of near-background soils, but it produced divergent results for isotopic dilution of a multi-layered system with litter cohorts having independent 14C-signatures. This discrepancy suggests that cohort-based models are needed to adequately capture the complex processes involved in carbon transport associated with litter mass-loss. Such models will be crucial for predicting intra- and interannual differences in organic horizon decomposition driven by scenarios of climatic change.

  11. Impact of modern climate change on the intercommunication: Global ocean-land (Northern Hemisphere)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lobanova, H.V.; Lobanov, V.A.; Stepanenko, S.R.

    1996-12-31

    Two main temperature gradients define the synoptic and climatic conditions on the earth in general: equator-pole gradient and ocean-land gradient. The analysis of temperature on the basis of new cyclic-different-scales conception has been fulfilled in every important part of the climatic system in the Northern Hemisphere for assessment of their vulnerability to modern climate change. Historical time series of monthly surface temperature have been used for this aim in the points of regular grid over the Northern Hemisphere from 1891 to 1992. The main feature of the temperature in main climatic parts of the earth is a complexity of its spatial structure. New methods of spatial decomposition have been developed for the division of this complex fields structure into characteristics of mean value of the field and index of its non-homogeneity or spatial variation. It has been established, that the temperature gradient between ocean and land is increasing that is characterized of the increasing of an intensity of synoptic processes, their spatial non-homogeneity and more frequent appearance of the extreme synoptic events. The models of intercommunications between coefficients of temperature spatial decomposition over the ocean and land have been developed for two time period and the increasing of the relationships closeness has been established between ocean and land as well as the decrease of main planet gradient: the pole(the Polar ocean)-equator.

  12. The change of microstructure and thermal properties in ion irradiated carbon nanotube mats as a function of ion penetration depth

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aitkaliyeva, A. [Materials Science and Engineering Program, Texas A and M University, College Station, Texas 77843 (United States)] [Materials Science and Engineering Program, Texas A and M University, College Station, Texas 77843 (United States); Shao, L. [Materials Science and Engineering Program, Texas A and M University, College Station, Texas 77843 (United States) [Materials Science and Engineering Program, Texas A and M University, College Station, Texas 77843 (United States); Department of Nuclear Engineering, Texas A and M University, College Station, Texas 77843 (United States)

    2013-02-11

    A stack of three carbon nanotube (CNT) mats was irradiated with 3 MeV He ions. The change in structural and thermal properties of individual mats as a function of ion penetration depth was characterized using electron microscopy and laser flash techniques. Ion irradiation can enhance thermal conductivity of the mats by introducing inter-tube displacements, which improve phonon transport across adjacent nanotubes. The enhancement, however, is reduced at higher damage levels due to the increasing phonon-defect scattering within the tubes. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using ion irradiation to manipulate thermal transport in carbon nanotubes.

  13. Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schmitz, Christoph; van Meijl, Hans; Kyle, G. Page; Nelson, Gerald C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gurgel, Angelo; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; von Lampe, Martin; Wise, Marshall A.; Blanc, Elodie; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Valin, Hugo

    2014-01-01

    Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 1025% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.

  14. The President's Plan to Reduce Carbon Pollution: Myths v. Reality |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy The President's Plan to Reduce Carbon Pollution: Myths v. Reality The President's Plan to Reduce Carbon Pollution: Myths v. Reality June 26, 2013 - 4:59pm Addthis President Obama lays out his vision for a comprehensive plan to reduce carbon pollution, prepare our country for the impacts of climate change and lead global efforts to fight it. Heather Zichal Deputy Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Change More information on President Obama's Climate Action

  15. Spatial and temporal patterns of biotic exchanges of CO{sub 2} between the atmosphere and tropical landscapes and their role in the global carbon balance. Progress report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Richards, J.F.; Flint, E.P.

    1993-10-01

    Since mid-September we have been engaged in final revision of the data base for South and Southeast Asia. In October we revised our second chapter for the forthcoming volume Effects of Land Use Change on Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations, edited by Virginia Dale. ``Trends in Carbon Content of Vegetation in South and Southeast Asia Associated with Changes in Land Use``, in response to a second round of reviews. Both this chapter and `` Century of Land Use Change in South and Southeast Asia`` (submitted in revised form in July) are have been accepted and are now in the hands of the technical editor. our time series of land use data and carbon content estimates for live vegetation in 93 zones comprising thirteen Asian nations at four dates was finalized in the course of manuscript revision. We sent machine-readable copies of the spreadsheets containing tabular data for Southeast Asia to CDIAC in October, and the following month delivered the South Asian data. At the same time, we sent these files to the research groups of Sandra Brown and Charlie Hall, who have entered this information in their geographic information systems, and also to Skee Houghton.

  16. Carbon deposition during brittle rock deformation: Changes in electrical properties of fault zones and potential geoelectric phenomena during earthquakes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mathez, E A; Roberts, J J; Duba, A G; Kronenberg, A K; Karner, S L

    2008-05-16

    To investigate potential mechanisms for geoelectric phenomena accompanying earthquakes, we have deformed hollow cylinders of Sioux quartzite to failure in the presence of carbonaceous pore fluids and investigated the resulting changes in electrical conductivity and carbon distribution. Samples were loaded at room temperature or 400 C by a hydrostatic pressure at their outer diameter, increasing pressure at a constant rate to {approx}290 MPa. Pore fluids consisted of pure CO, CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and a 1:1 mixture of CO{sub 2} and CH{sub 4}, each with pore pressures of 2.0 to 4.1 MPa. Failure occurred by the formation of mode II shear fractures transecting the hollow cylinder walls. Radial resistivities of the cylinders fell to 2.9 to 3.1 M{Omega}-m for CO tests and 15.2 to 16.5 M{Omega}-m for CO{sub 2}:CH{sub 4} tests, compared with >23 M{Omega}-m for dry, undeformed cylinders. Carbonaceous fluids had no discernable influence on rock strength. Based on mapping using electron microprobe techniques, carbon occurs preferentially as quasi-continuous films on newly-formed fracture surfaces, but these films are absent from pre-existing surfaces in those same experiments. The observations support the hypothesis that electrical conductivity of rocks is enhanced by the deposition of carbon on fracture surfaces and imply that electrical properties may change in direct response to brittle deformation. They also suggest that the carbon films formed nearly instantaneously as the cracks formed. Carbon film deposition may accompany the development of microfracture arrays prior to and during fault rupture and thus may be capable of explaining precursory and coseismic geoelectric phenomena.

  17. Carbon sequestration research and development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reichle, Dave; Houghton, John; Kane, Bob; Ekmann, Jim; and others

    1999-12-31

    Predictions of global energy use in the next century suggest a continued increase in carbon emissions and rising concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) in the atmosphere unless major changes are made in the way we produce and use energy--in particular, how we manage carbon. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts in its 1995 ''business as usual'' energy scenario that future global emissions of CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere will increase from 7.4 billion tonnes of carbon (GtC) per year in 1997 to approximately 26 GtC/year by 2100. IPCC also projects a doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration by the middle of next century and growing rates of increase beyond. Although the effects of increased CO{sub 2} levels on global climate are uncertain, many scientists agree that a doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations could have a variety of serious environmental consequences. The goal of this report is to identify key areas for research and development (R&D) that could lead to an understanding of the potential for future use of carbon sequestration as a major tool for managing carbon emissions. Under the leadership of DOE, researchers from universities, industry, other government agencies, and DOE national laboratories were brought together to develop the technical basis for conceiving a science and technology road map. That effort has resulted in this report, which develops much of the information needed for the road map.

  18. CO2 Global Solutions International | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Solutions International Jump to: navigation, search Name: CO2 Global Solutions International Place: Madrid, Spain Zip: 28001 Sector: Carbon Product: CO2 Global Solutions is...

  19. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in ISEEM Global Energy Model: 2010-2050 Scenario Analysis for Least-Cost Carbon Reduction in Iron and Steel Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Karali, Nihan; Xu, Tengfang; Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-12-01

    The goal of the modeling work carried out in this project was to quantify long-term scenarios for the future emission reduction potentials in the iron and steel sector. The main focus of the project is to examine the impacts of carbon reduction options in the U.S. iron and steel sector under a set of selected scenarios. In order to advance the understanding of carbon emission reduction potential on the national and global scales, and to evaluate the regional impacts of potential U.S. mitigation strategies (e.g., commodity and carbon trading), we also included and examined the carbon reduction scenarios in China’s and India’s iron and steel sectors in this project. For this purpose, a new bottom-up energy modeling framework, the Industrial Sector Energy Efficiency Modeling (ISEEM), (Karali et al. 2012) was used to provide detailed annual projections starting from 2010 through 2050. We used the ISEEM modeling framework to carry out detailed analysis, on a country-by-country basis, for the U.S., China’s, and India’s iron and steel sectors. The ISEEM model applicable to iron and steel section, called ISEEM-IS, is developed to estimate and evaluate carbon emissions scenarios under several alternative mitigation options - including policies (e.g., carbon caps), commodity trading, and carbon trading. The projections will help us to better understand emission reduction potentials with technological and economic implications. The database for input of ISEEM-IS model consists of data and information compiled from various resources such as World Steel Association (WSA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China Steel Year Books, India Bureau of Mines (IBM), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and recent LBNL studies on bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy efficiency measures in the iron and steel sector of the U.S., China, and India, including long-term steel production in China. In the ISEEM-IS model, production technology and manufacturing details are

  20. Global decarbonization strategies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Messner, S.

    1996-12-31

    The presentation covers a brief summary of the research activities of the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies Project (ECS) at IIASA. The overall research focuses on long-term global energy development and emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). The ultimate goal is to analyze strategies that achieve decarbonization of global energy systems during the next century. The specific activities range from mitigation of GHG emissions to an integrated assessment of climate change. One focal point is the GHG mitigation technology inventory CO{sub 2}DB, which presently covers approximately 1,400 technologies related to energy and the greenhouse effect. Another integral part is the development of global energy and emissions scenarios, an effort involving a number of formal models to assess the implications. A large number of global scenarios for the next century has been developed, that could be grouped into three families. All of them include energy efficiency improvements and some degree of decarbonization in the world. They are based on different economic and technological development trajectories, and their emissions range from very high to a stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions. The presentation will outline the salient characteristics of the three scenario families and provide some regional implications of these alternative futures.

  1. Shoreline, grain-size, and total-carbon distribution changes before and after Hurricane Alicia, Galveston Island, Texas, 1983

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rothammer, C.M.; Morrison, L.R.; Warkentin, S.L.

    1985-02-01

    Shoreline, grain-size, and sediment total-carbon changes were monitored, on a monthly basis, on three Galveston Island beaches, from January through December 1983. The study area included: (1) East Beach, obstructed by groins and a seawall; (2) Galveston Island State Park, obstructed by fences artificially stabilizing the dunes; and (3) West Beach, an unobstructed beach. Beach profiles revealed the effects of beach obstruction, such as erosion and undercutting at East Beach, and truncation of the dunes at Galveston Island State Park. Approximately 20 m of expansional cutback occurred on the beaches after Hurricane Alicia hit on August 18, 1983. Contour maps of grain-size and total-carbon distributions reflect the movement of beach sand by either onshore-offshore transport during low-energy periods, or longshore, edge-wave transport during high-energy periods. Statistical analyses revealed a small variation in grain size throughout the year. There were well-defined times of either no correlation or strong correlation between total carbon vs. mean grain size, skewness vs. mean grain size, kurtosis vs. mean grain size, skewness vs. mean grain size, kurtosis vs. mean grain size, total carbon vs. percent sand, total carbon vs. skewness, and skewness vs. kurtosis. Strong correlation was found in response to high-energy events, whereas no correlation was found in response to low-energy events. Galveston Island is undergoing net erosion and appears to be in a metastable state, still capable of responding to oceanographic conditions. The economic effects of Hurricane Alicia include considerable loss of the shoreline and destruction of property. Beach nourishment appears to be the only economically feasible solution to counteract the extensive erosion.

  2. Chemical sensing and imaging in microfluidic pore network structures relevant to natural carbon cycling and industrial carbon sequestration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grate, Jay W.; Zhang, Changyong; Wilkins, Michael J.; Warner, Marvin G.; Anheier, Norman C.; Suter, Jonathan D.; Kelly, Ryan T.; Oostrom, Martinus

    2013-06-11

    Energy and climate change represent significant factors in global security. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, while global in scope, are influenced by pore-scale phenomena in the subsurface. We are developing tools to visualize and investigate processes in pore network microfluidic structures with transparent covers as representations of normally-opaque porous media. In situ fluorescent oxygen sensing methods and fluorescent cellulosic materials are being used to investigate processes related to terrestrial carbon cycling involving cellulytic respiring microorganisms. These structures also enable visualization of water displacement from pore spaces by hydrophobic fluids, including carbon dioxide, in studies related to carbon sequestration.

  3. Head of UN Economic Commission for Europe: "Capture the Carbon"

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The increased urgency of global climate change has focused the attention of many leaders around the world. While the Department of Energy remains a global leader in carbon capture and storage (CCS) research and development, CCS has grown in prominence as one international solution to an "all-of-the-above" problem.

  4. The 7. global warming international conference and expo: Abstracts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-12-31

    This conference was held April 1--3, 1996 in Vienna, Austria. The purpose of this conference was to provide a multidisciplinary forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on global warming. Topics of interest include the following: global and regional natural resource management; energy, transportation, minerals and natural resource management; industrial technology and greenhouse gas emission; strategies for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emission; greenhouse gas production/utilization and carbon budgets; strategies for promoting the understanding of global change; international policy strategy and economics; and global warming and public health. Individual papers have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases.

  5. Regional versus global? -- Will strategies for reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions from electric utilities increase carbon dioxide emissions?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Randolph, J.C.; Dolsak, N.

    1996-12-31

    Electric utilities, which are dependent on high-sulfur coal are expected to reduce their SO{sub 2} emissions. The strategies for reduction of SO{sub 2} emissions may result in increased CO{sub 2} emissions. Thereby decrease of regional pollution may cause increase of global pollution. Environmental, political, moral, and economic consequences of the two types of pollution differ significantly. Midwestern electric utilities, USA, which are dependent on high-sulfur coal, are analyzed in the paper. However, the same problem is relevant for some European coal fueled power plants. Strategies for reduction of SO{sub 2} emissions, employed by Midwestern electric utilities to comply with the clean Air Act amendments (CAAA) of 1990 and their possible affects on CO{sub 2} emissions, are presented. The paper focuses on two general strategies for reduction of SO{sub 2} emissions. First is coal-switching or blending with a low-sulfur coal. Second is construction and use of flue-gas desulfurization devices (scrubbers). A combination of both strategies is also a viable option. Switching to low-sulfur coal may result in larger CO{sub 2} emissions because that coal has different characteristics and has to be transported much greater distances. Scrubbers require significant amounts of energy for their operation which requires burning more coal. This increases the level of CO{sub 2} emissions.

  6. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Participated in the 2013 Domenici Public Policy Conference Carbon Capture & Storage, Carbon Storage, Climate, Earth Sciences Research Center, Energy, Global Climate & Energy, Global Climate & Energy, News, News & Events, Systems Analysis, Systems Engineering, Water Security Sandia Participated in the 2013 Domenici Public Policy Conference Marianne Walck, Director of Sandia's Geoscience, Climate, and Consequence Effects Center, spoke on "Hydraulic Fracturing: The Role

  7. Carbon Constraints and the Electric Power Industry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2007-11-15

    The report is designed to provide a thorough understanding of the type of carbon constraints that are likely to be imposed, when they are likely to take effect, and how they will impact the electric power industry. The main objective of the report is to provide industry participants with the knowledge they need to plan for and react to a future in which carbon emissions are restricted. The main goal of the report is to ensure an understanding of the likely restrictions that will be placed on carbon emissions, the methods available for reducing their carbon emissions, and the impact that carbon reductions will have on the electric power industry. A secondary goal of the report is to provide information on key carbon programs and market participants to enable companies to begin participating in the international carbon marketplace. Topics covered in the report include: overview of what climate change and the Kyoto Protocol are; analysis of the impacts of climate change on the U.S. and domestic efforts to mandate carbon reductions; description of carbon reduction mechanisms and the types of carbon credits that can be created; evaluation of the benefits of carbon trading and the rules for participation under Kyoto; Description of the methods for reducing carbon emissions available to the U.S. electric power industry; analysis of the impact of carbon restrictions on the U.S. electric power industry in terms of both prices and revenues; evaluation of the impact of carbon restrictions on renewable energy; overview of the current state of the global carbon market including descriptions of the three major marketplaces; descriptions of the industry and government programs already underway to reduce carbon emissions in the U.S. electric power industry; and, profiles of the major international carbon exchanges and brokers.

  8. An open letter to the 2008 presidential candidates: get the facts right on what's responsible for global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Linden, Henry R.

    2008-07-15

    The two remaining presidential candidates have adopted policies for reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that address factors that are mistakenly held responsible as the primary cause of global warming. Here's what they need to keep in mind in order to craft genuinely efficacious policies. (author)

  9. Identification and preliminary characterization of global water resource issues which may be affected by CO/sub 2/-induced climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Callaway, J.M.; Cohen, M.L.; Currie, J.W.

    1984-04-01

    The objectives were to: (1) identify, characterize, and define existing or projected regional and global water resource management issues which may be affected by CO/sub 2/-induced climate changes; and (2) develop research priorities for acquiring additional information about the potential effects of a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change on the availability and allocation of freshwater supplies. The research was broken into four work elements: (1) identification of water resource management issues on a global and regional basis; (2) identification of a subset of generic CO/sub 2/-related water resource management issues believed to have the highest probability of being affected, beneficially or adversely, by a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change; (3) selection of specific sites for examining the potential effect of a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change on these issues; and (4) conducting detailed case studies at these sites, the results from which will be used to identify future research and data needs in the area of water resources. This report summarizes the research related to the first three work elements. 6 figures, 9 tables.

  10. Global Proteome Response to Deletion of Genes Related to Mercury Methylation and Dissimilatory Metal Reduction Reveals Changes in Respiratory Metabolism in Geobacter sulfurreducens PCA

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Qian, Chen; Johs, Alexander; Chen, Hongmei; Mann, Benjamin F.; Lu, Xia; Abraham, Paul E.; Hettich, Robert L.; Gu, Baohua

    2016-07-27

    Geobacter sulfurreducens PCA can reduce, sorb, and methylate mercury (Hg); however, the underlying biochemical mechanisms of these processes and interdependent metabolic pathways remain unknown. In this study, shotgun proteomics was used to compare global proteome profiles between wild-type G. sulfurreducens PCA and two mutant strains: a ΔhgcAB mutant, which is deficient in two genes known to be essential for Hg methylation and a ΔomcBESTZ mutant, which is deficient in five outer membrane c-type cytochromes and thus impaired in its ability for dissimilatory metal ion reduction. We were able to delineate the global response of G. sulfurreducens PCA in both mutantsmore » and identify cellular networks and metabolic pathways that were affected by the loss of these genes. Deletion of hgcAB increased the relative abundances of proteins implicated in extracellular electron transfer, including most of the c-type cytochromes, PilA-C, and OmpB, and is consistent with a previously observed increase in Hg reduction in the hgcAB mutant. Deletion of omcBESTZ was found to significantly increase relative abundances of various methyltransferases, suggesting that a loss of dissimilatory reduction capacity results in elevated activity among one-carbon metabolic pathways and thus increased methylation. We show that G. sulfurreducens PCA encodes only the folate branch of the Wood Ljungdahl pathway, and proteins associated with the folate branch were found at lower abundance in the ΔhgcAB mutant strain than the wild type. In conclusion, this observation supports the hypothesis that the function of HgcA and HgcB may be linked to one carbon metabolism through the folate branch of the Wood-Ljungdahl pathway by providing methyl groups required for Hg methylation.« less