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Sample records for global change assessment

  1. Global Climate Change Assessment Report Shows Nations Not Doing...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Climate Change Assessment Report Shows Nations Not Doing Enough Home > Blogs > Dc's blog Dc's picture Submitted by Dc(266) Contributor 5 November, 2014 - 14:49 The latest...

  2. Integrated Assessment of Global Water Scarcity over the 21st Century under Multiple Climate Change Mitigation Policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and a global population of 14 billion by 2095, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demand for water exceeds the amount of water availability in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 20% and 27% of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change.

  3. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

  4. Global Climate Change and Agriculture

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Izaurralde, Roberto C.

    2009-01-01

    The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released in 2007 significantly increased our confidence about the role that humans play in forcing climate change. There is now a high degree of confidence that the (a) current atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) far exceed those of the pre-industrial era, (b) global increases in CO2 arise mainly from fossil fuel use and land use change while those of CH4 and N2O originate primarily from agricultural activities, and (c) the net effect of human activities since 1750 has led to a warming of the lower layers of the atmosphere, with an increased radiative forcing of 1.6 W m-2. Depending on the scenario of human population growth and global development, mean global temperatures could rise between 1.8 and 4.0 C by the end of the 21st century.

  5. Integrated Assessment of Global Climate Change | U.S. DOE Office...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    ... as found at the energy, water, and land nexus and in connected infrastructure dynamics . ... of natural resources, food, and water, and shifts in global economies, ...

  6. Global change monitoring with lichens

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Insarov, G.

    1997-12-31

    Environmental monitoring involves observations and assessment of changes in ecosystems and their components caused by anthropogenetic influence. An ideal monitoring system enables quantification of the contemporary state of the environment and detect changes in it. An important function of monitoring is to assess environment quality of areas that are not affected by local anthropogenic impacts, i.e. background areas. In background areas terrestrial ecosystems are mainly affected by such anthropogenic factors as lowered air pollution and global climate change. Assessment of biotic responses to altered climatic and atmospheric conditions provides an important basis for ecosystem management and environmental decision making. Without the ability to make such assessment, sustainability of ecosystems as a support system for humans remains uncertain.

  7. Global climate change and maize production in Spain: Risk assessment and impacts of weather on yields

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Feijoo, M.L.; Mestre, F.; Iglesias, A.; Rosenzweig, C.

    1996-12-31

    The study evaluates the potential effect of climate change on maize production in Spain, combining climate models, a crop productivity model, a decision support system and a yield-response model. The study was carried out for two agricultural regions that include the largest areas of Spain where maize is grown as a high input crop. The paper combines the output from a crop model with different techniques of analysis. The scenarios used in this study were generated from the output of two General Circulation Models (GCMs): the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model (GISS) and the Canadian Climate Change Model (CCCM). The study also includes a preliminary evaluation of the potential changes in monetary returns taking into account the possible variability of grain yields and prices, using mean-Gini stochastic dominance (MGSD). A yield response model was estimated using simulated data from the crop model. Weather variables are included. Typically, temperature and precipitation are the only weather variables included in these models. However, solar radiation is another important climate factor for plant growth and development and were included in the yield response model.

  8. Global change: Acronyms and abbreviations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woodard, C.T.; Stoss, F.W.

    1995-05-01

    This list of acronyms and abbreviations is compiled to provide the user with a ready reference to dicipher the linguistic initialisms and abridgements for the study of global change. The terms included in this first edition were selected from a wide variety of sources: technical reports, policy documents, global change program announcements, newsletters, and other periodicals. The disciplinary interests covered by this document include agriculture, atmospheric science, ecology, environmental science, oceanography, policy science, and other fields. In addition to its availability in hard copy, the list of acronyms and abbreviations is available in DOS-formatted diskettes and through CDIAC`s anonymous File Transfer Protocol (FTP) area on the Internet.

  9. Global Climate Change Institute | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Change Institute Jump to: navigation, search Name: Global Climate Change Institute Place: Tsinghua University, Beijing Municipality, China Zip: 100084 Product: Global Climate...

  10. Brazil Interministerial Commission on Global Climate Change ...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Interministerial Commission on Global Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Name: Brazil Interministerial Commission on Global Climate Change Place: Distrito Federal...

  11. U.S. Global Change Research Program publishes "National Climate...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    U.S. Global Change Research Program publishes "National Climate Assessment" report for United States Home > Groups > OpenEI Community Central Graham7781's picture Submitted by...

  12. Integrated assessment of global warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ott, K.O.

    1996-12-31

    The anomalies of sea surface temperatures, which show a warming trend since the 1850s through the decade 1960/70 of {Delta}SST {approximately} 0.3 C, are complemented by changes of the ground surface temperature ({Delta}GST). The global surface temperature change, based on these data, allows an integrated assessment of the associated increase in black-body irradiance and a comparison with the enhanced greenhouse-gas back-scattering. Information on the GST history is obtained from unfolding analyses of underground temperature distributions measured in 90 boreholes in Alaskan permafrost and Canadian bedrock. These analyses show GST increases ({Delta}GST) since the 19th century through 1960/70 of 3 C on average, with standard deviations of +1.8 C and {minus}0.9 C on the high and low end respectively. The onset of the warming trend, which is uncertain in the GST data, is timed more accurately by detailed length records of large valley glaciers in the US and the Alps. Evaluation of the heat capacities and heat transfer indicates that the temperature response to an increase in radiative forcing must be much larger on land than on the sea. Conversely, the observed large ratio of {Delta}GST and {Delta}SST can only be explained by increased radiative forcing. From 1960/70 through the warmest decade on record, 1980/90, global {Delta}SST and {Delta}SAT have further increased to 0.6 C and 0.8 C respectively, But, the most recent GST data are not accurate enough to extend the comparison through 1990. Calculation of the increase of radiative forcing from back-scattering of greenhouse gases for 1850 to 1970 yields 1.3 W/cm{sup 2}. The increase in black-body irradiance from 3.6 C warming on land and 0.3 C on sea provides the required balance. The warming on land of 3.6 C is larger than the average value of 3.0 C, but well within the observed range.

  13. Uncertainties in global aerosol simulations: Assessment using...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Uncertainties in global aerosol simulations: Assessment using three meteorological data sets Current global aerosol models use different physical and chemical schemes and 4 ...

  14. Global Change Associates | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Change Associates Jump to: navigation, search Name: Global Change Associates Place: New York City, New York Zip: 10025-5657 Product: Consulting firm focusing on the convergence...

  15. Global environmental change: Modifying human contributions through education

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carter, L.M.

    1997-12-31

    The 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Science report concludes that evidence now available {open_quotes}points toward a discernible human influence on global climate{close_quotes}. Reductions in emissions will require changes in human behavior. Knowledge, often through education, is an important moderator of human environmental behavior. This study assessed whether gains in global environmental change knowledge would lead to changes in human behaviors that could be deemed environmentally responsible.

  16. Global change research: Science and policy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rayner, S.

    1993-05-01

    This report characterizes certain aspects of the Global Change Research Program of the US Government, and its relevance to the short and medium term needs of policy makers in the public and private sectors. It addresses some of the difficulties inherent in the science and policy interface on the issues of global change. Finally, this report offers some proposals for improving the science for policy process in the context of global environmental change.

  17. Engineering change in global climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schneider, S.H.

    1996-12-31

    {open_quotes}With increased public focus on global warming and in the wake of the intense heat waves, drought, fires, and super-hurricanes that occurred in 1988 and 1989, interest in geoengineering has surged,{close_quotes} says Stephen H. Schneider, professor of biological science at Stanford University in Stanford, California. One scheme set forth in a National Research Council report proposes using 16-inch naval guns to fire aerosol shells into the stratosphere in hopes of offsetting {open_quotes}the radiative effects of increasing carbon dioxide,{close_quotes} Schneider says. Schneider, however, would prefer that we {open_quotes}seek measures that can cure our global {open_quote}addiction{close_quote} to polluting practices.{close_quotes} Rather than playing God, he says we should {open_quotes}stick to being human and pursue problem - solving methods currently within our grasp.{close_quotes} Such strategies include efforts to promote energy efficiency and reduce our reliance on automobiles.

  18. Global environmental change: Its nature and impact

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hidore, J.J.

    1996-12-31

    This book is intended as an entry-level textbook on environmental science for nonscience majors. Twenty chapters address topics from historical geology and climatic change to population dynamics, land-use, water pollution, ozone depletion and biodiversity, global warming.

  19. Climate Effects of Global Land Cover Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gibbard, S G; Caldeira, K; Bala, G; Phillips, T; Wickett, M

    2005-08-24

    There are two competing effects of global land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to heating when changing from grass/croplands to forest, and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate in a global land cover change scenario. We have performed coupled land/ocean/atmosphere simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model. We find that replacement of current vegetation by trees on a global basis would lead to a global annual mean warming of 1.6 C, nearly 75% of the warming produced under a doubled CO{sub 2} concentration, while global replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4 C. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming. In particular, high latitude forests probably have a net warming effect on the Earth's climate.

  20. Global climate change and international security.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  1. Global climate change and international security

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  2. ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education Program (GCEP) PIA, Office of Information Resources ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education ...

  3. ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education Program (GCEP) PIA, Office of Information Resources ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education...

  4. Financing a Global Deal on Climate Change | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Financing a Global Deal on Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Financing a Global Deal on Climate Change AgencyCompany Organization: United...

  5. Pew Center on Global Climate Change | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Pew Center on Global Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Name: Pew Center on Global Climate Change Place: Arlington, Virginia Zip: 22201 Product: Established in 1998 as a...

  6. Financing Global Climate Change Mitigation | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Climate Change Mitigation Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Financing Global Climate Change Mitigation AgencyCompany Organization: United Nations...

  7. Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Science Sessions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Katzenberger, John; Kaye, Jack A

    2006-10-01

    The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) successfully organized and convened six interdisciplinary meetings over the course of award NNG04GA21G. The topics of the meetings were consistent with a range of issues, goals and objectives as described within the NASA Earth Science Enterprise Strategic Plan and more broadly by the US Global Change Research Program/Our Changing Planet, the more recent Climate Change Program Strategic Plan and the NSF Pathways report. The meetings were chaired by two or more leaders from within the disciplinary focus of each session. 222 scholars for a total of 1097 participants-days were convened under the auspices of this award. The overall goal of each AGCI session is to further the understanding of Earth system science and global environmental change through interdisciplinary dialog. The format and structure of the meetings allows for presentation by each participant, in-depth discussion by the whole group, and smaller working group and synthesis activities. The size of the group is important in terms of the group dynamics and interaction, and the ability for each participant's work to be adequately presented and discussed within the duration of the meeting, while still allowing time for synthesis

  8. National Institute for Global Environmental Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Werth, G.C.

    1992-04-01

    This document is the Semi-Annual Report of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change for the reporting period July 1 to December 31, 1991. The report is in two parts. Part I presents the mission of the Institute, examples of progress toward that mission, a brief description of the revised management plan, and the financial report. Part II presents the statements of the Regional Center Directors along with progress reports of the projects written by the researchers themselves.

  9. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  10. Climate Change Assessment | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Climate Change Assessment Climate Change Assessment Climate Change Assessment 66climornlsalev2mjs.ppt (11.1 MB) More Documents & Publications 2014 Water Power Program Peer ...

  11. Global Climate Change Alliance Training Workshops on Mainstreaming...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Change Alliance Training Workshops on Mainstreaming Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Global Climate Change Alliance Training Workshop on...

  12. Global fish production and climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brander, K.M.

    2007-12-11

    Current global fisheries production of {approx}160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but there is low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are giverned by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipiation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the pricipal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

  13. Global warming and changes in ocean circulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Duffy, P.B.; Caldeira, K.C.

    1998-02-01

    This final report provides an overview of the goals and accomplishments of this project. Modeling and observational work has raised the possibility that global warming may cause changes in the circulation of the ocean. If such changes would occur they could have important climatic consequences. The first technical goal of this project was to investigate some of these possible changes in ocean circulation in a quantitative way, using a state-of -the-art numerical model of the ocean. Another goal was to develop our ocean model, a detailed three-dimensional numerical model of the ocean circulation and ocean carbon cycles. A major non-technical goal was to establish LLNL as a center of excellence in modelling the ocean circulation and carbon cycle.

  14. Financing Innovation to Address Global Climate Change | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Financing Innovation to Address Global Climate Change Financing Innovation to Address Global Climate Change DOE-LPO_Report_Financing-Innovation-Climate-Change.pdf (1.97 MB) More Documents & Publications LPO Financial Performance Report PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE Financing Innovation to Address Global Climate Change Powering New Markets: Utility-scale Photovoltaic Solar

  15. ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education Program (GCEP)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    PIA, Office of Information Resources | Department of Energy ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education Program (GCEP) PIA, Office of Information Resources ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education Program (GCEP) PIA, Office of Information Resources ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education Program (GCEP) PIA, Office of Information Resources ORAU Science Education Program (SEP) Global Change Education Program (GCEP) PIA, Office of

  16. From global change science to action with social sciences

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weaver, C. P.; Mooney, Sian; Allen, D.; Beller-Simms, Nancy; Fish, T.; Grambsch, A.; Hohenstein, W.; Jacobs, Kathy; Kenney, Melissa A.; Lane, Meredith A.; Langner, L.; Larson, E.; McGinnis, D. L.; Moss, Richard H.; Nichols, L. G.; Nierenberg, Claudia; Seyller, E. A.; Stern, Paul; Winthrop, R.

    2014-08-01

    US efforts to integrate social and biophysical sciences to address the issue of global change exist within a wider movement to understand global change as a societal challenge and to inform policy. Insights from the social sciences can help transform global change research into action.

  17. Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector 2002 DEER Conference ...

  18. Global climate change crosses state boundaries

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Changnon, S.A.

    1996-12-31

    The hot, dry summer of 1988 brought the specter of global warming a bit too close for comfort. {open_quotes}Scorching heat, not scientific models, attracted media attention,{close_quotes} says Stanley A. Changnon, senior scientist with the Illinois State Water Survey in Champaign, Illinois. Rising temperatures in the late 1980`s prompted individual states to begin to take action to curb greenhouse-gas emissions. A 1990 report by the National Governors Association identified two guiding principles for addressing climate change issues. {open_quotes}First, that energy policy must be at the center of any efforts to control greenhouse-gas emissions. Second, that state can...restrict emissions through state policies related to public utilities, land use, transportation, and even taxation,{close_quotes} Changnon says. Even if concerns for global warming prove to be overblown, states decided to act for broader economic and environmental reasons. Such initiatives not only save money, but they improve air quality and leave the nation more energy independent,{close_quotes} Changnon says.

  19. White House Conference on Global Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-11-01

    President Clinton has directed the White House office on Environmental Policy to coordinate an interagency process to develop a plan to fulfill the commitment he made in his Earth Day address on April 21, 1993. This plan will become the cornerstone of the Climate Change Plan that will be completed shortly after the Rio Accord enters into force. The Office on Environmental Policy established the Interagency Climate Change Mitigation Group to draw on the expertise of federal agencies including the National Economic Council; the Council of Economic Advisors; the Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Office of Management and Budget; the National Security Council; the Domestic Policy Council; the Environmental Protection Agency; and the Departments of Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Interior, Treasury, Commerce, and State. Working groups have been established to examine six key policy areas: energy demand, energy supply, joint implementation, methane and other gases, sinks, and transportation. The purpose of the White House Conference on Global Climate Change was to ``tap the real-world experiences`` of diverse participants and seek ideas and information for meeting the President`s goals. During the opening session, senior administration officials defined the challenge ahead and encouraged open and frank conversation about the best possible ways to meet it.

  20. Changing Global Petroleum Product Trade Flows

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    OECD/IEA 2014 © OECD/IEA 2014 Antoine Halff 2014 EIA Energy Conference Changing Global Petroleum Product Trade Flows Washington, DC July 14, 2014 © OECD/IEA 2014 Crude trade shifts further east  Asia imports increase by 2.6 mb/d to 22.1 mb, or 65% of the international crude market Crude Exports in 2019 and Growth in 2013-19 for Key Trade Routes 1 (million barrels per day) 0.2 0.3 (0) 2.0 (0.2) (-0.6) 4.1 (-0.6) 0.1 (-0.7) 3.1 1.2 (0.3) 1.0 (+0.1) -0.6 2.2 1.8 (+0.8) (-0.6) 1.1 (+0.3) Red

  1. Climate Models from the Joint Global Change Research Institute

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Staff at the Joint Institute develop and use models to simulate the economic and physical impacts of global change policy options. The GCAM, for example, gives analysts insight into how regional and national economies might respond to climate change mitigation policies including carbon taxes, carbon trading, and accelerated deployment of energy technology. Three available models are Phoenix, GCAM, and EPIC. Phoenix is a global, dynamic recursive, computable general equilibrium model that is solved in five-year time steps from 2005 through 2100 and divides the world into twenty-four regions. Each region includes twenty-six industrial sectors. Particular attention is paid to energy production in Phoenix. There are nine electricity-generating technologies (coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal) and four additional energy commodities: crude oil, refined oil products, coal, and natural gas. Phoenix is designed to answer economic questions related to international climate and energy policy and international trade. Phoenix replaces the Second Generation Model (SGM) that was formerly used for general equilibrium analysis at JGCRI. GCAM is the Global Change Assessment Model, a partial equilibrium model of the world with 14 regions. GCAM operates in 5 year time steps from 1990 to 2095 and is designed to examine long-term changes in the coupled energy, agriculture/land-use, and climate system. GCAM includes a 151-region agriculture land-use module and a reduced form carbon cycle and climate module in addition to its incorporation of demographics, resources, energy production and consumption. The model has been used extensively in a number of assessment and modeling activities such as the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and IPCC assessment reports. GCAM is now freely available as a community model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) Model

  2. PNNL: Atmospheric Sciences & Global Change Search for Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Atmospheric Science & Global Change Search for Staff Search for an ASGC staff member (Last, First) Search Search for staff member by Group View Alphabetical List of all ASGC Staff (may take a moment to load) Atmospheric Sciences & Global Change ASGC Home Our Research Facilities Measurement Capabilities Modeling Expertise Staff & Organization Search Publications Job Opportunities Seminar Series Frontiers in Global Change Science at PNNL Home Journal Cover Gallery Search Site Search

  3. ORNL Global Change and Developing Country Programs | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Oak Ridge National Laboratory Sector Energy Website http:www.esd.ornl.goveessg References Global Change 1 "For more than twenty years, ORNL has been active in energy...

  4. Climate Induced Changes in Biogenic Emissions: Global Chemical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Sponsoring Org: USDOE Country of Publication: United States Language: English Subject: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CLIMATIC CHANGE; EMISSION; PLANTS; ANIMALS; GLOBAL ASPECTS; ...

  5. Global Climate Change: Risk to Bank Loans | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Risk to Bank Loans Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Global Climate Change: Risk to Bank Loans AgencyCompany Organization: United Nations...

  6. Joint Global Change Research Institute | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    solutions. Joint Institute staff bring decades of experience and expertise to bear in science, technology, economics, and policy. "The Joint Global Change Research Institute...

  7. Ecotones in a changing environment: Workshop on ecotones and global change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Risser, P.G.

    1990-02-01

    The Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) has organized an international project to synthesize and advance current theory on the influence of ecotones, or transition zones between ecosystems, on biodiversity and flows of energy, nutrients, water, and project is other materials between ecosystems. In particular, the entire project is designed to evaluate the influence of global climate change and land-use practices on biodiversity and ecological flows associated with ecotones, and will assess the feasibility of monitoring ecotones as early indicators of global change. The later stages of the project will recommend landscape management strategies for ecotones that produce desirable patterns of biodiversity and ecological flows. The result of the project--a comprehensive body of information on the theory and management of biodiversity and ecological flows associated with ecotones--will be part of the planning for research to be carried out under the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program.

  8. gas-hydrate-global-assessment | netl.doe.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    gas-hydrate-global-assessment Frozen Heat: A Global Outlook on Methane Hydrate cover of executive summary The United Nations Environmental Programme released this new, two-volume report in March 2015. Frozen Heat: A Global Outlook on Methane Hydrate details the science and history of gas hydrates, evaluates the current state of gas hydrate research, and explores the potential impact of this untapped natural gas source on the future global energy mix. An executive summary of report is also

  9. Integrated Assessment and the Relation Between Land-Use Change and Climate Change

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Dale, V. H.

    1994-10-07

    Integrated assessment is an approach that is useful in evaluating the consequences of global climate change. Understanding the consequences requires knowledge of the relationship between land-use change and climate change. Methodologies for assessing the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations are considered with reference to a particular case study area: south and southeast Asia. The use of models to evaluate the consequences of climate change on forests must also consider an assessment approach. Each of these points is discussed in the following four sections.

  10. Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Transportation Sector | Department of Energy Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector 2002 DEER Conference Presentation: Joint Global Change Research Institute - Battelle 2002_deer_dooley.pdf (999.14 KB) More Documents & Publications There is no Silver Bullet: Regionalization and Market Fragmentation in Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies EAC Presentation - Roadmap 2050:

  11. Assessing Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation: The Case of Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed Jump to: navigation, search Name Assessing Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability...

  12. Illinois task force on global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Griffin, B.S.

    1996-12-31

    The purpose of this report is to document progress in the areas of national policy development, emissions reduction, research and education, and adaptation, and to identify specific actions that will be undertaken to implement the Illinois state action plan. The task force has been tracking national and international climate change policy, and helping shape national policy agenda. Identification and implementation of cost-effective mitigation measures has been performed for emissions reduction. In the area of research and education, the task force is developing the capacity to measure climate change indicators, maintaining and enhancing Illinois relevant research, and strengthening climate change education. Activities relevant to adaptation to new policy include strengthening water laws and planning for adaptation. 6 figs., 4 tabs.

  13. Global climate change and the mitigation challenge

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Frank Princiotta

    2009-10-15

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations, very likely the primary cause of the 0.8{sup o}C warming the Earth has experienced since the Industrial Revolution. With industrial activity and population expected to increase for the rest of the century, large increases in greenhouse gas emissions are projected, with substantial global additional warming predicted. This paper examines forces driving CO{sub 2} emissions, a concise sector-by-sector summary of mitigation options, and research and development (R&D) priorities. To constrain warming to below approximately 2.5{sup o}C in 2100, the recent annual 3% CO{sub 2} emission growth rate needs to transform rapidly to an annual decrease rate of from 1 to 3% for decades. Furthermore, the current generation of energy generation and end-use technologies are capable of achieving less than half of the emission reduction needed for such a major mitigation program. New technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate, especially for the key power generation and transportation sectors. Current energy technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) programs fall far short of what is required. 20 refs., 18 figs., 4 tabs.

  14. Global Forest Resource Assessment | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Assessment 2010 (FRA 2010) covers all seven thematic elements of sustainable forest management: Extent of forest resources Forest biological diversity Forest health and...

  15. Chasing a specter: Risk management for global environmental change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    O'Riordan, T. ); Rayner, S. )

    1989-10-01

    Global environmental change is both a concept and a process that changes in meaning with scientific discovery, public concern, and political responsiveness. It is the relationship between the problems as perceived and the various institutions that help shape and adapt to such problems that defines global environmental change. There is a kind of race between scientific detective work and political adjustment to lessen the likely impacts that predictive science is trying to verify. Risk analysis, because of its capacity to recognize this relationship in many spheres of problem identification, can contribute to the political debate, mostly by proposing institutional redesign of the relationship among scientific research, public entry, and experimental readjustments to consensus formation and international action. This paper discusses the factors involved in global environmental change, the risk management involved, the holistic interpretation, and the environmental impacts. 21 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs.

  16. Malaria and global change: Insights, uncertainties and possible surprises

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martin, P.H.; Steel, A.

    1996-12-31

    Malaria may change with global change. Indeed, global change may affect malaria risk and malaria epidemiology. Malaria risk may change in response to a greenhouse warming; malaria epidemiology, in response to the social, economic, and political developments which a greenhouse warming may trigger. To date, malaria receptivity and epidemiology futures have been explored within the context of equilibrium studies. Equilibrium studies of climate change postulate an equilibrium present climate (the starting point) and a doubled-carbon dioxide climate (the end point), simulate conditions in both instances, and compare the two. What happens while climate changes, i.e., between the starting point and the end point, is ignored. The present paper focuses on malaria receptivity and addresses what equilibrium studies miss, namely transient malaria dynamics.

  17. The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page; Zhang, Xuesong; Bandaru, Varaprasad; West, Tristram O.; Wise, Marshall A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-19

    Land use change is a complex response to changing environmental and socioeconomic systems. Historical drivers of land use change include changes in the natural resource availability of a region, changes in economic conditions for production of certain products and changing policies. Most recently, introduction of policy incentives for biofuel production have influenced land use change in the US Midwest, leading to concerns that bioenergy production systems may compete with food production and land conservation. Here we explore how land use may be impacted by future climate mitigation measures by nesting a high resolution agricultural model (EPIC Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) for the US Midwest within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM Global Change Assessment Model). This approach is designed to provide greater spatial resolution and detailed agricultural practice information by focusing on the climate mitigation potential of agriculture and land use in a specific region, while retaining the global economic context necessary to understand the far ranging effects of climate mitigation targets. We find that until the simulated carbon prices are very high, the US Midwest has a comparative advantage in producing traditional food and feed crops over bioenergy crops. Overall, the model responds to multiple pressures by adopting a mix of future responses. We also find that the GCAM model is capable of simulations at multiple spatial scales and agricultural technology resolution, which provides the capability to examine regional response to global policy and economic conditions in the context of climate mitigation.

  18. Global climate change: A strategic issue facing Illinois

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Womeldorff, P.J.

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses global climate change, summarizes activities related to climate change, and identifies possible outcomes of the current debate on the subject. Aspects of climate change related to economic issues are very briefly summarized; it is suggested that the end result will be a change in lifestyle in developed countries. International activities, with an emphasis on the Framework Convention on Climate Change, and U.S. activities are outlined. It is recommended that the minimum action required is to work to understand the issue and prepare for possible action.

  19. Global Assessment of Hydrogen Technologies - Executive Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fouad, Fouad H.; Peters, Robert W.; Sisiopiku, Virginia P.; Sullivan, Andrew J.

    2007-12-01

    This project was a collaborative effort involving researchers from the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) and Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), drawing on the experience and expertise of both research organizations. The goal of this study was to assess selected hydrogen technologies for potential application to transportation and power generation. Specifically, this study evaluated scenarios for deploying hydrogen technologies and infrastructure in the Southeast. One study objective was to identify the most promising near-term and long-term hydrogen vehicle technologies based on performance, efficiency, and emissions profiles and compare them to traditional vehicle technologies. Hydrogen vehicle propulsion may take many forms, ranging from hydrogen or hythane fueled internal combustion engines (ICEs) to fuel cells and fuel cell hybrid systems. This study attempted to developed performance and emissions profiles for each type (assuming a light duty truck platform) so that effective deployment strategies can be developed. A second study objective was to perform similar cost, efficiency, and emissions analysis related to hydrogen infrastructure deployment in the Southeast. There will be many alternative approaches for the deployment of hydrogen fueling infrastructure, ranging from distributed hydrogen production to centralized production, with a similar range of delivery options. This study attempted to assess the costs and potential emissions associated with each scenario. A third objective was to assess the feasibility of using hydrogen fuel cell technologies for stationary power generation and to identify the advantages and limits of different technologies. Specific attention was given to evaluating different fuel cell membrane types. A final objective was to promote the use and deployment of hydrogen technologies in the Southeast. This effort was to include establishing partnerships with industry as well promoting educational and outreach efforts to public

  20. Future generations, environmental ethics, and global environmental change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tonn, B.E.

    1994-12-31

    The elements of a methodology to be employed by the global community to investigate the consequences of global environmental change upon future generations and global ecosystems are outlined in this paper. The methodology is comprised of two major components: A possible future worlds model; and a formal, citizen-oriented process to judge whether the possible future worlds potentially inheritable by future generations meet obligational standards. A broad array of descriptors of future worlds can be encompassed within this framework, including survival of ecosystems and other species and satisfaction of human concerns. The methodology expresses fundamental psychological motivations and human myths journey, renewal, mother earth, and being-in-nature-and incorporates several viewpoints on obligations to future generations-maintaining options, fairness, humility, and the cause of humanity. The methodology overcomes several severe drawbacks of the economic-based methods most commonly used for global environmental policy analysis.

  1. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  2. TRENDS '90: A compendium of data on global change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W.; Boden, T.A.; Kanciruk, P.; Farrell, M.P.

    1990-08-01

    This document is a source of frequently used global change data. This first issue includes estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and from the production of cement, historical and modern records of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and methane concentrations, and several long-term temperature records. Included are tabular and graphical presentations of the data, discussions of trends in the data, and references to publications that provide further information. Data are presented in a two-page format, each dealing with a different data set. All data are available in digital form from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

  3. Threshold responses to interacting global changes in a California grassland ecosystem

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Field, Christopher; Cortinas, Susan

    2015-02-02

    Final Report for Threshold responses to interacting global changes in a California grassland ecosystem

  4. The economics of long-term global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-09-01

    This report is intended to provide an overview of economic issues and research relevant to possible, long-term global climate change. It is primarily a critical survey, not a statement of Administration or Department policy. This report should serve to indicate that economic analysis of global change is in its infancy few assertions about costs or benefits can be made with confidence. The state of the literature precludes any attempt to produce anything like a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis. Moreover, almost all the quantitative estimates regarding physical and economic effects in this report, as well as many of the qualitative assertions, are controversial. Section I provides background on greenhouse gas emissions and their likely climatic effects and on available policy instruments. Section II considers the costs of living with global change, assuming no substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Section III considers costs of reducing these emissions, though the available literature does not contain estimates of the costs of policies that would, on the assumptions of current climate models, prevent climate change altogether. The individual sections are not entirely compartmentalized, but can be read independently if necessary.

  5. Relative outcomes of climate change mitigation related to global

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    temperature versus sea-level rise | Argonne Leadership Computing Facility Relative outcomes of climate change mitigation related to global temperature versus sea-level rise Authors: Gerald A. Meehl, Aixue Hu, Claudia Tebaldi, Julie M. Arblaster, Warren M. Washington, Haiyan Teng, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Toby Ault, Warren G. Strand & James B. White III There is a common perception that, if human societies make the significant adjustments necessary to substantively cut emissions of

  6. Innovating to Change Paradigm of Manufacturing | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Innovating Around the Clock to Change the Paradigm of Manufacturing Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window) Share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Click to share (Opens in new window) Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window) Innovating Around the Clock to Change the Paradigm of Manufacturing Christine M. Furstoss 2014.03.24 When you're part of a global company that operates multiple R&D sites around the world, the engine

  7. Health effects of global warming: Problems in assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Longstreth, J.

    1993-06-01

    Global warming is likely to result in a variety of environmental effects ranging from impacts on species diversity, changes in population size in flora and fauna, increases in sea level and possible impacts on the primary productivity of the sea. Potential impacts on human health and welfare have included possible increases in heat related mortality, changes in the distribution of disease vectors, and possible impacts on respiratory diseases including hayfever and asthma. Most of the focus thus far is on effects which are directly related to increases in temperature, e.g., heat stress or perhaps one step removed, e.g., changes in vector distribution. Some of the more severe impacts are likely to be much less direct, e.g., increases in migration due to agricultural failure following prolonged droughts. This paper discusses two possible approaches to the study of these less-direct impacts of global warming and presents information from on-going research using each of these approaches.

  8. Trends Online: A Compendium of Data on Global Change

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Trends Online provides synopses of frequently used time series of global-change data: • historical and modern records (from ice cores and current monitoring stations) of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) • atmospheric concentrations of methane • isotopic measurements (14C et al.) for atmospheric greenhouse gases • estimates of global, regional, and national CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels, gas flaring, and the production of cement • global emissions estimates for methane (CH4) • carbon flux from land-cover change • long-term temperature records, whose spatial coverage ranges from individual sites to the entire globe and from the Earth's surface to the lower stratosphere • total cloud amount over China • ecosystems (area and carbon content) Data records are presented in multipage formats, each dealing with a specific site, region, or emissions species. The data records include tables; graphs; discussions of methods for collecting, measuring, and reporting the data; trends in the data, and references to literature providing further information. Instructions for citing specific data in Trends Online are provided for each compiled data set. All data appearing in Trends Online are available, on request, on digital media from CDIAC at no cost. [Copied from the Abstract to Trends Online at http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/abstract.htm

  9. (Meeting on human dimensions of global environmental change)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rayner, S.

    1990-12-18

    Traveler attended the meeting of the Standing Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change of the International Social Science Council (ISSC) and the Scientific Symposium organized by the Standing Committee. The purpose of the meeting and symposium was to discuss the Draft Framework and the Workplan of the Standing Committee prior to its presentation to the 1990 Congress of the ISSC on November 28--30, 1990. The meetings indicate that ORNL Global Environmental Studies Center is on the international leading edge of human dimensions research, except in the area of human dimensions data systems. This weakness could be rectified by close collaboration with the efforts of the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) in Michigan.

  10. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanson, H.P.

    1994-09-01

    This research is ultimately concerned with investigating the hypothesis that changes in surface thermal and hydrological forcing of the North Atlantic, changes that might be expected to accompany CO2-induced global warming, could result in ocean-atmosphere interactions` exerting a positive feedback on the climate system. This report concerns research conducted with funding from the Carbon Dioxide Research Program (now the Global Climate Change Program) of the US Department of Energy via grant no. DE-FG02-90ER61019 during the period 15 July 1990 - 14 July 1994. This was a three-year award, extended to a fourth year (15 July 1993 - 14 July 1994) via a no-cost extension. It is important to emphasize that this award has been renewed for an additional two years (15 July 1993 - 14 July 1995) via grant no. DE-FG03-93ER61646 (with the same title). Because the project was originally envisioned to be a five-year effort, many of the important results and conclusions will be available for the Final Report of that second award. This report therefore concerns mainly preliminary conclusions and a discussion of progress toward understanding the central hypothesis of the research.

  11. Nitrogen Deposition: A Component of Global Change Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Norby, Richard J.

    1997-12-31

    The global cycles of carbon and nitrogen are being perturbed by human activities that increase the transfer from large pools of nonreactive forms of the elements to reactive forms that are essential to the functioning of the terrestrial biosphere. The cycles are closely linked at all scales, and global change analyses must consider carbon and nitrogen cycles together. The increasing amount of nitrogen originating from fossil fuel combustion and deposited to terrestrial ecosystems as nitrogen oxides could increase the capacity of ecosystems to sequester carbon thereby removing some of the excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and slowing the development of greenhouse warming. Several global and ecosystem models have calculated the amount of carbon sequestration that can be attributed to nitrogen deposition based on assumptions about the allocation of nitrogen among ecosystem components with different carbon-nitrogen ratios. They support the premise that nitrogen deposition is responsible for a an increasing terrestrial carbon sink since industrialization began, but there are large uncertainties related to the continued capacity of ecosystems to retain exogenous nitrogen. Whether terrestrial ecosystems continue to sequester additional carbon will depend in part on their response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, which is widely thought to be constrained by limited nitrogen availability. Ecosystem models generally support the conclusion that the responses of ecosystems to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide will be larger, and the range of possible responses will be wider, in ecosystems with increased nitrogen inputs originating as atmospheric deposition.

  12. Global Change Research: Summaries of research in FY 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-10-01

    This document describes the activities and products of the Global Research Program in FY 1993. This publication describes all of the projects funded by the Environmental Sciences Division of DOE under annual contracts, grants, and interagency agreements in FY 1993. Each description contains the project`s title; its 3-year funding history (in thousands of dollars); the period over which the funding applies; the name(s) of the principal investigator(s); the institution(s) conducting the projects; and the project`s objectives, products, approach, and results to date (for most projects older than 1 year). Project descriptions are categorized within the report according to program areas: climate modeling, quantitative links, global carbon cycle, vegetation research, ocean research, economics of global climate change, education, information and integration, and NIGEC. Within these categories, the descriptions are grouped alphabetically by principal investigator. Each program area is preceded by a brief text that defines the program area, states its goals and objectives, lists principal research questions, and identifies program managers.

  13. TRENDS 1991: A compendium of data on global change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W.

    1991-12-01

    This document is a source of frequently used global-change data. This second issue of the Trends series expands the coverage of sites recording atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and methane (CH{sub 4}), and it updates records reported in the first issue. New data for other trace atmospheric gases have been included in this issue; historical data on nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}) from ice cores, modern records of atmospheric concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and CFC-12) and N{sub 2}O, and estimates of global estimates of CFC-11 and CFC-12. The estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, the production of cement, and gas flaring have been revised and updated. Regional CO{sub 2} emission estimates have been added, and long-term temperature records have been updated and expanded. Data records are presented in four- to six-page formats, each dealing with a specific site, region, or emissions species. The data records include tables and graphs; discussion of methods for collecting, measuring, and reporting the data; trends in the data; and references to literature that provides further information. All data appearing in the document are available on digital media from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

  14. THE IMPACT OF THERMAL ENGINEERING RESEARCH ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phelan, Patrick; Abdelaziz, Omar; Otanicar, Todd; Phelan, Bernadette; Prasher, Ravi; Taylor, Robert; Tyagi, Himanshu

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change is recognized by many people around the world as being one of the most pressing issues facing our society today. The thermal engineering research community clearly plays an important role in addressing this critical issue, but what kind of thermal engineering research is, or will be, most impactful? In other words, in what directions should thermal engineering research be targeted in order to derive the greatest benefit with respect to global climate change? To answer this question we consider the potential reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, coupled with potential economic impacts, resulting from thermal engineering research. Here a new model framework is introduced that allows a technological, sector-by-sector analysis of GHG emissions avoidance. For each sector, we consider the maximum reduction in CO2 emissions due to such research, and the cost effectiveness of the new efficient technologies. The results are normalized on a country-by-country basis, where we consider the USA, the European Union, China, India, and Australia as representative countries or regions. Among energy supply-side technologies, improvements in coal-burning power generation are seen as having the most beneficial CO2 and economic impacts. The one demand-side technology considered, residential space cooling, offers positive but limited impacts. The proposed framework can be extended to include additional technologies and impacts, such as water consumption.

  15. FactSheetOnGlobalClimateChange.pdf | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    FactSheetOnGlobalClimateChange.pdf FactSheetOnGlobalClimateChange.pdf U (37.81 KB) More Documents & Publications U Twenty In Ten: Strengthening America's Energy Security Climate ...

  16. U.S. Global Climate Change program | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    U.S. Global Climate Change program Home Graham7781's picture Submitted by Graham7781(2017) Super contributor 18 January, 2013 - 15:46 U.S. Global Change Research Program publishes...

  17. A Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for North America

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mearns, L. O.; Gutowski, William; Jones, Richard; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; McGinnis, Seth; Nunes, A.; Qian, Yun

    2009-09-08

    There are two main uncertainties in determining future climate: the trajectories of future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and the response of the global climate system to any given set of future emissions [Meehl et al., 2007]. These uncertainties normally are elucidated via application of global climate models, which provide information at relatively coarse spatial resolutions. Greater interest in, and concern about, the details of climate change at regional scales has provided the motivation for the application of regional climate models, which introduces additional uncertainty [Christensen et al., 2007a]. These uncertainties in fi ne- scale regional climate responses, in contrast to uncertainties of coarser spatial resolution global models in which regional models are nested, now have been documented in numerous contexts [Christensen et al., 2007a] and have been found to extend to uncertainties in climate impacts [Wood et al., 2004; Oleson et al., 2007]. While European research in future climate projections has moved forward systematically to examine combined uncertainties from global and regional models [Christensen et al., 2007b], North American climate programs have lagged behind. To fi ll this research gap, scientists developed the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (-NARCCAP). The fundamental scientifi c motivation of this international program is to explore separate and combined uncertainties in regional projections of future climate change resulting from the use of multiple atmosphere- ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) to drive multiple regional climate models (RCMs). An equally important, and related, motivation for this program is to provide the climate impacts and adaptation community with high- resolution regional climate change scenarios that can be used for studies of the societal impacts of climate change and possible adaptation strategies.

  18. Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, Andrew D.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.

    2015-08-01

    We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm–2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.

  19. Asia-Pacific Regional Climate Change Adaptation Assessment |...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Pacific Regional Climate Change Adaptation Assessment Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Asia-Pacific Regional Climate Change Adaptation Assessment Agency...

  20. New Zealand-Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zealand-Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment Jump to: navigation, search Name Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment: A Guidance Manual for Local Government in New...

  1. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Richardson, Andrew D.

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  2. US forests and global change - precolonization to the 21st century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zerbe, J.I.

    1997-12-31

    The forests of the United States and manufacture of products from raw materials produced in the forests are significant for the international global economy and for amelioration of threatening global climate change. This paper explores the conditions of the forests as a result of changing anthropogenic influences, and how these conditions might impact on global change.

  3. Changes in U.S. Participation in Global Product Markets: Increases and Changes in Product Exports

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    in U.S. Participation in Global Product Markets: Increases and Changes in Product Exports 2014 EIA Energy Conference Hart Energy Research and Consulting Washington DC July 14, 2014 2 © 2014 Hart Energy. All rights reserved. Emerging Characteristics of Global Petroleum Product Markets Growth in Demand Focused in Pacific. Incremental demand oriented toward distillate Source: Hart Energy Research & Consulting, 2014 26% 25% 24% 24% 15% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 5% 29% 31% 32% 33% 49% 9% 8% 8%

  4. Assessing the Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Pacific Storm Track Using a Multiscale Global Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan; Molina, Mario J.

    2014-05-13

    Atmospheric aerosols impact weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track using a multi-scale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and pre-industrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by - 2.5 and + 1.3 W m-2, respectively, by emission changes from pre-industrial to present day, and an increased cloud-top height indicates invigorated mid-latitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides for the first time a global perspective of the impacts of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multi-scale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on the global scale.

  5. Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Kim, Son H.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Liu, Lu; Calvin, Katherine; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, Jae; Kyle, Page; Patel, Pralit; Wise, Marshall; Davies, Evan

    2016-01-22

    Water is essential for the world’s food supply, for energy production, including bioenergy and hydroelectric power, and for power system cooling. Water is already scarce in many regions of the world and could present a critical constraint as society attempts simultaneously to mitigate climate forcing and adapt to climate change, and to provide for a larger and more prosperous human population. Numerous studies have pointed to growing pressures on the world’s scarce fresh water resources from population and economic growth, and climate change. This study goes further. We use the Global Change Assessment Model to analyze interactions between population, economicmore » growth, energy, land, and water resources simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system where competing claims on water resources from all claimants—energy, land, and economy—are reconciled with water resource availability—from renewable water, non-renewable groundwater and desalinated water sources —across 14 geopolitical regions, 151 agriculture-ecological zones, and 235 major river basins. We find that previous estimates of global water withdrawal projections are overestimated. Model simulations show that it is more economical in some basins to alter agricultural and energy activities rather than utilize non-renewable groundwater or desalinated water. Lastly, this study highlights the importance of accounting for water as a binding factor in agriculture, energy and land use decisions in integrated assessment models and implications for global responses to water scarcity, particularly in the trade of agricultural commodities and land-use decisions.« less

  6. Review of economic and energy sector implications of adopting global climate change policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Novak, M.H.

    1997-12-31

    This paper summarizes a number of studies examining potential economic impacts of global climate change policies. Implications for the United States as a whole, the U.S. energy sector, the U.S. economy, businesses and consumers, and world economies are considered. Impact assessments are performed of U.S. carbon emissions, carbon taxes, and carbon restrictions by comparing estimates from various organizations. The following conclusions were made from the economic studies: (1) the economic cost of carbon abatement is expensive; (2) the cost of unilateral action is very expensive with little quantifiable evidence that global emissions are reduced; (3) multilateral actions of developed countries are also very expensive, but there is quantifiable evidence of global emissions reductions; and (4) global actions have only been theoretically addressed. Paralleling these findings, the energy analyses show that the U.S. is technologically unprepared to give up fossil fuels. As a result: (1) carbon is not stabilized without a high tax, (2) stabilization of carbon is elusive, (3) technology is the only long-term answer, and (4) targeted programs may be appropriate to force technology development. 8 tabs.

  7. Influence of Climate Change Mitigation Technology on Global Demands of Water for Electricity Generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Dooley, James J.; Smith, Steven J.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.

    2013-01-17

    Globally, electricity generation accounts for a large and potentially growing water demand, and as such is an important component to assessments of global and regional water scarcity. However, the current suite—as well as potential future suites—of thermoelectric generation technologies has a very wide range of water demand intensities, spanning two orders of magnitude. As such, the evolution of the generation mix is important for the future water demands of the sector. This study uses GCAM, an integrated assessment model, to analyze the global electric sector’s water demands in three futures of climate change mitigation policy and two technology strategies. We find that despite five- to seven-fold expansion of the electric sector as a whole from 2005 to 2095, global electric sector water withdrawals remain relatively stable, due to the retirement of existing power plants with water-intensive once-through flow cooling systems. In the scenarios examined here, climate policies lead to the large-scale deployment of advanced, low-emissions technologies such as carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), concentrating solar power, and engineered geothermal systems. In particular, we find that the large-scale deployment of CCS technologies does not increase long-term water consumption from hydrocarbon-fueled power generation as compared with a no-policy scenario without CCS. Moreover, in sensitivity scenarios where low-emissions electricity technologies are required to use dry cooling systems, we find that the consequent additional costs and efficiency reductions do not limit the utility of these technologies in achieving cost-effective whole-system emissions mitigation.

  8. Gene expression profiling--Opening the black box of plant ecosystem responses to global change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leakey, A.D.B.; Ainsworth, E.A.; Bernard, S.M.; Markelz, R.J.C.; Ort, D.R.; Placella, S.A.P.; Rogers, A.; Smith, M.D.; Sudderth, E.A.; Weston, D.J.; Wullschleger, S.D.; Yuan, S.

    2009-11-01

    The use of genomic techniques to address ecological questions is emerging as the field of genomic ecology. Experimentation under environmentally realistic conditions to investigate the molecular response of plants to meaningful changes in growth conditions and ecological interactions is the defining feature of genomic ecology. Since the impact of global change factors on plant performance are mediated by direct effects at the molecular, biochemical and physiological scales, gene expression analysis promises important advances in understanding factors that have previously been consigned to the 'black box' of unknown mechanism. Various tools and approaches are available for assessing gene expression in model and non-model species as part of global change biology studies. Each approach has its own unique advantages and constraints. A first generation of genomic ecology studies in managed ecosystems and mesocosms have provided a testbed for the approach and have begun to reveal how the experimental design and data analysis of gene expression studies can be tailored for use in an ecological context.

  9. Global surface temperature changes since the 1850s

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, P.D.

    1996-12-31

    Temperature data from land and marine areas form the basis for many studies of climatic variations on local, regional and hemispheric scales, and the global mean temperature is a fundamental measure of the state of the climate system. In this paper it is shown that the surface temperature of the globe has warmed by about 0.5{degrees}C since the mid-nineteenth century. This is an important part of the evidence in the {open_quote}global warming{close_quote} debate. How certain are we about the magnitude of the warming? Where has it been greatest? In this paper, these and related issues will be addressed.

  10. Global climate change: Mitigation opportunities high efficiency large chiller technology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stanga, M.V.

    1997-12-31

    This paper, comprised of presentation viewgraphs, examines the impact of high efficiency large chiller technology on world electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. Background data are summarized, and sample calculations are presented. Calculations show that presently available high energy efficiency chiller technology has the ability to substantially reduce energy consumption from large chillers. If this technology is widely implemented on a global basis, it could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 65 million tons by 2010.

  11. Bibliometric analysis of global environmental assessment research in a 20-year period

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Wei Zhao, Yang

    2015-01-15

    Based on the samples of 113,468 publications on environmental assessment (EA) from the past 20 years, we used a bibliometric analysis to study the literature in terms of trends of growth, subject categories and journals, international collaboration, geographic distribution of publications, and scientific research issues. By applying thresholds to network centralities, a core group of countries can be distinguished as part of the international collaboration network. A frequently used keywords analysis found that the priority in assessment would gradually change from project environmental impact assessment (EIA) to strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Decision-theoretic approaches (i.e., environmental indicator selection, life cycle assessment, etc.), along with new technologies and methods (i.e., the geographic information system and modeling) have been widely applied in the EA research field over the past 20 years. Hot spots such as “biodiversity” and “climate change” have been emphasized in current EA research, a trend that will likely continue in the future. The h-index has been used to evaluate the research quality among countries all over the world, while the improvement of developing countries' EA systems is becoming a popular research topic. Our study reveals patterns in scientific outputs and academic collaborations and serves as an alternative and innovative way of revealing global research trends in the EA research field.

  12. Butterfly Wing Nanostructures and Temperature Changes | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Butterfly Wing Nanostructures and Temperature Changes Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window) Share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Click to share (Opens in new window) Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window) Butterfly Wing Nanostructures and Temperature Changes Radislav Potyrailo 2012.02.13 Hello Earth! New technological advances that have been inspired by Nature provide our society with new, advanced products. Some

  13. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory interests and capabilities for research on the ecological effects of global climatic and atmospheric change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Amthor, J.S.; Houpis, J.L.; Kercher, J.R.; Ledebuhr, A.; Miller, N.L.; Penner, J.E.; Robison, W.L.; Taylor, K.E.

    1994-09-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has interests and capabilities in all three types of research that must be conducted in order to understand and predict effects of global atmospheric and climatic (i.e., environmental) changes on ecological systems and their functions (ecosystem function is perhaps most conveniently defined as mass and energy exchange and storage). These three types of research are: (1) manipulative experiments with plants and ecosystems; (2) monitoring of present ecosystem, landscape, and global exchanges and pools of energy, elements, and compounds that play important roles in ecosystem function or the physical climate system, and (3) mechanistic (i.e., hierarchic and explanatory) modeling of plant and ecosystem responses to global environmental change. Specific experimental programs, monitoring plans, and modeling activities related to evaluation of ecological effects of global environmental change that are of interest to, and that can be carried out by LLNL scientists are outlined. Several projects have the distinction of integrating modeling with empirical studies resulting in an Integrated Product (a model or set of models) that DOE or any federal policy maker could use to assess ecological effects. The authors note that any scheme for evaluating ecological effects of atmospheric and climatic change should take into account exceptional or sensitive species, in particular, rare, threatened, or endangered species.

  14. Development of Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Development of Sea Level Rise...

  15. Methods for Climate Change Technology Transfer Needs Assessments...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Methods for Climate Change Technology Transfer Needs Assessments and Implementing Activities: Experiences of Developing and Transition Countries Jump to: navigation, search Tool...

  16. International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B.

    1991-12-01

    The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with the polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; and (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks, (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosol and trace gases.

  17. Environmental Justice: Made-for-Television—Climate Change: A Global Reality

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy was invited to be a panelist for a made-for-television educational program in Columbia, South Carolina, titled Climate Change: A Global Reality. DOE also co-sponsored...

  18. International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B.

    1991-12-01

    The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks; (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosols and trace gases.

  19. Global Climate Change Response Program: Potential regional impacts of global warming on precipitation in the western United States. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leverson, V.

    1997-01-01

    This study was designed to build upon a previous Global Climate Change Response Program investigation in which an initial `first guess` climate change scenario was derived for the Western United States. Using the scenario`s hypothesized northward shift in the mean wintertime storm track, historical upper-air patterns in the atmosphere were searched to identify winter months (December, January, or February) that would serve as appropriate global warming analogues (GWA). Contour charts were generated of four geopotential height parameters. Specific pattern configurations of the four parameters were identified that reflected the altered storm track pattern, and guidelines for selecting suitable analogues based on the configurations were developed. Monthly mean precipitation values for the GWA months at three climatological divisions in Western Montana, northern Utah, and east central Arizona were compared with median values for the 1946-89 period to determine if any significant differences existed.

  20. "The gate-keepers in a changing world: integrating microbial diversity and dynamics with global change biology."

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jessica L.M. Gutknecht and Kathryn M. Docherty

    2011-11-01

    Microorganisms (Bacteria, Archaea and Fungi) are the gate-keepers of many ecosystem-scale biogeochemical cycles. Although there have been measurable changes in ecosystem function due to human activities such as greenhouse gas production, nutrient loading, land-use change, and water consumption, few studies have connected microbial community dynamics with these changes in ecosystem function. Specifically, very little is known about how global changes will induce important functional changes in microbial biodiversity. Even less is known about how microbial functional changes could alter rates of nutrient cycling or whether microbial communities have enough functional redundancy that changes will have little impact on overall process rates. The proposed symposium will provide an overview of this emerging research area, with emphasis on linking the microorganisms directly to important ecological functions under the influence of global change dynamics. The session will include both broad overviews as well as specific case-studies by researchers who examine microbial communities from a variety of taxonomic levels and from various environments. The session will begin broadly, with speakers discussing how microbial communities may inform ecosystem-scale global change studies, and help to make microbial ecological knowledge more tangible for a broad range of ecologists. The session will continue with case studies of microbial community information informing process in global change experiments. Finally, the session will close with speakers discussing how microbial community information might fit into global change models, and what types of information are useful for future studies. We have requested that speakers particularly incorporate their views on what types of microbial data is useful and informative in the context of larger ecosystem processes. We foresee that this session could serve as a focal point for global change microbial ecologists to meet and discuss their

  1. Global warming and the challenge of international cooperation: An interdisciplinary assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bryner, G.C.

    1995-07-01

    This book focuses on ozone depletion first, global warming second. It is a collection of perspectives from a variety of disciplines and includes a limited amount of technical assessment information.

  2. Impacts of global warming on climate change over East Asia as simulated by 15 GCMs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zong-ci Zhao; Xiaodong Li

    1997-12-31

    About 15 GCMs (GFDL1, GISS, LLNL, MPI, OSU, UKMOL, UKMOH, GCMs90-92, GFDL2, NCAR, OPYC, LSG, HADL, GCMs95) obtained from the IPCC WG 1 1990, 1992 and 1995 reports have been chosen to examine the impacts of global warming, on the climate chance over East Asia. Although the models scenarios of the human activities were different for the different GCMs, the climate change over East Asia (70E-140E, 15N-60N) for tile doubled CO{sub 2} as simulated by about 15 GCMs have been analysed. The Simulations shown that the temperature might increased by about 0.5 - 1.5 C over East Asia, especially in winter and northwestern parts of East Asia. The precipitation might increase in northwestern and northeastern parts of East Asia and decrease in the central part of East Asia. The evaluations and assessments of the GCMs over East Asia have indicated that the GCMs have the abilities to simulate the climate change over East Asia, especially for the temperature and the winter season. There are some uncertainties for the simulations to compare with the observations, especially for tile precipitation and tile summer season.

  3. Assessing historical global sulfur emission patterns for the period 1850--1990

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lefohn, A.S.; Husar, J.D.; Husar, R.B.; Brimblecombe, P.

    1996-07-19

    Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions from energy-producing and metal production activities have become an important factor in better understanding the relationship between humans and the environment. Concerns about (1) acid rain effects on the environment and (2) anthropogenic aerosols affecting possible global change have prompted interest in the transformation and fate of sulfur in the environment. One step in assessing the importance of sulfur emissions is the development of a reliable regional emission inventory of sulfur as a function of time. The objective of this research effort was to create a homogeneous database for historical sulfur emission estimates for the world. The time from 1850--1990 was selected to include the period of industrialization form the time the main production of fuels and minerals began until the most recent year for which complete production data exist. This research effort attempts to correct some of the deficiencies associated with previous global sulfur emission estimates by (1) identifying those production activities that resulted in sulfur emissions by country and (2) calculating historical emission trends by country across years. An important component of this study was the comparison of the sulfur emission results with those of previous studies.

  4. U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity and the Global Climate Change Initiative (released in AEO2005)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2005-01-01

    On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administrations Global Climate Change Initiative. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas intensity by 18% over the 2002 to 2012 time frame. For the purposes of the initiative, greenhouse gas intensity is defined as the ratio of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to economic output.

  5. U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity and the Global Climate Change Initiative (released in AEO2006)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2006-01-01

    On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administrations Global Climate Change Initiative. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity-defined as the ratio of total U.S. GHG emissions to economic output-by 18% over the 2002 to 2012 time frame.

  6. Global Warming and Ice Ages: I. Prospects For Physics Based Modulation of Global Change

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Teller, E.; Wood, L.; Hyde, R.

    1996-08-15

    It has been suggested that large-scale climate changes, mostly due to atmospheric injection of greenhouse gases connected with fossil-fired energy production, should be forestalled by internationally-agreed reductions in, e.g., electricity generation. The potential economic impacts of such limitations are obviously large: greater than or equal to $10{sup 11}/year. We propose that for far smaller - less than 1% - the mean thermal effects of greenhouse gases may be obviated in any of several distinct ways, some of them novel. These suggestions are all based on scatterers that prevent a small fraction of solar radiation from reaching all or part of the Earth. We propose research directed to quite near-term realization of one or more of these inexpensive approaches to cancel the effects of the greenhouse gas injection. While the magnitude of the climatic impact of greenhouse gases is currently uncertain, the prospect of severe failure of the climate, for instance at the onset of the next Ice Age, is undeniable. The proposals in this paper may lead to quite practical methods to reduce or eliminate all climate failures.

  7. Improved Offshore Wind Resource Assessment in Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arent, D.; Sullivan, P.; Heimiller, D.; Lopez, A.; Eurek, K.; Badger, J.; Jorgensen, H. E.; Kelly, M.; Clarke, L.; Luckow, P.

    2012-10-01

    This paper introduces a technique for digesting geospatial wind-speed data into areally defined -- country-level, in this case -- wind resource supply curves. We combined gridded wind-vector data for ocean areas with bathymetry maps, country exclusive economic zones, wind turbine power curves, and other datasets and relevant parameters to build supply curves that estimate a country's offshore wind resource defined by resource quality, depth, and distance-from-shore. We include a single set of supply curves -- for a particular assumption set -- and study some implications of including it in a global energy model. We also discuss the importance of downscaling gridded wind vector data to capturing the full resource potential, especially over land areas with complex terrain. This paper includes motivation and background for a statistical downscaling methodology to account for terrain effects with a low computational burden. Finally, we use this forum to sketch a framework for building synthetic electric networks to estimate transmission accessibility of renewable resource sites in remote areas.

  8. An integrated assessment of global and regional water demands for electricity generation to 2095

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davies, Evan; Kyle, G. Page; Edmonds, James A.

    2013-02-01

    Electric power plants currently account for approximately one-half of the global industrial water withdrawal. While continued expansion of the electric sector seems likely into the future, the consequent water demands are quite uncertain, and will depend on highly variable water intensities by electricity technologies, at present and in the future. Using GCAM, an integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change, we first establish lower-bound, median, and upper-bound estimates for present-day electric sector water withdrawals and consumption by individual electric generation technologies in each of 14 geopolitical regions, and compare them with available estimates of regional industrial or electric sector water use. We then explore the evolution of global and regional electric sector water use over the next century, focusing on uncertainties related to withdrawal and consumption intensities for a variety of electric generation technologies, rates of change of power plant cooling system types, and rates of adoption of a suite of water-saving technologies. Results reveal that the water withdrawal intensity of electricity generation is likely to decrease in the near term with capital stock turnover, as wet towers replace once-through flow cooling systems and advanced electricity generation technologies replace conventional ones. An increase in consumptive use accompanies the decrease in water withdrawal rates; however, a suite of water conservation technologies currently under development could compensate for this increase in consumption. Finally, at a regional scale, water use characteristics vary significantly based on characteristics of the existing capital stock and the selection of electricity generation technologies into the future.

  9. Future global environmental changes: Comparison with past and present rates of change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cole, K.L. (Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul (United States))

    1993-06-01

    Quantification of past and present rates of vegetation change provides a yardstick for the evaluation of future rates of change. Holocene and post-settlement rates of vegetation change were measured at Channel Islands and Capitol Reef National Parks, and at Indiana Dunes and Pictured Rocks National Lakeshores, using various paleoecological proxy data. Vegetation changes were quantified using several multivariate ordination techniques. Comparison of past vegetation changes due to climatic shifts, plant succession, and plant migration, with ongoing changes due to grazing, logging, exotic species invasions, and modified fire regimes, demonstrates that plant communities are presently suffering rates of change which are unprecedented in their severity for the Last 5000 years. The climatic warming projected for the next 50 years will exacerbate these ongoing changes, but win only be one of many variables operating in the unplanned experimental redesign our natural ecosystems.

  10. LONG-TERM GLOBAL WATER USE PROJECTIONS USING SIX SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING FRAMEWORK

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.; Moss, Richard H.; Kim, Son H.

    2014-01-19

    In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demandsboth gross withdrawals and net consumptive useare assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. We assess future water demands representing six socioeconomic scenarios, with no constraints imposed by future water supplies. The scenarios observe increases in global water withdrawals from 3,578 km3 year-1 in 2005 to 5,987 8,374 km3 year-1 in 2050, and to 4,719 12,290 km3 year-1 in 2095. Comparing the projected total regional water withdrawals to the historical supply of renewable freshwater, the Middle East exhibits the highest levels of water scarcity throughout the century, followed by India; water scarcity increases over time in both of these regions. In contrast, water scarcity improves in some regions with large base-year electric sector withdrawals, such as the USA and Canada, due to capital stock turnover and the almost complete phase-out of once-through flow cooling systems. The scenarios indicate that: 1) water is likely a limiting factor in climate change mitigation policies, 2) many regions can be expected to increase reliance on non-renewable groundwater, water reuse, and desalinated water, but they also highlight an

  11. National Environmental Health Association position on global climate change adopted July 2, 1997

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Radtke, T.; Gist, G.L.; Wittkopf, T.E.

    1997-11-01

    The National Environmental Health Association (NEHA) supports the precept that anthropogenic sources, specifically greenhouse gases, are responsible for a significant portion of the measured change in global climate. Further, NEHA supports the concept of an association between global warming and an increased risk to public health. Reducing the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere will benefit human health. This position paper reviews current information on the status of global climate change with particular emphasis on the implications for environmental and public health. It is intended to be used as a basis from which environmental and public health practitioners and colleagues in related fields can initiate discussions with policy makers at all levels -- local, state, national, and worldwide.

  12. National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment Energy and Climate Change

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment: Energy and Climate Change will develop and advance partnerships that focus on transitioning the world to a new "low carbon" and "climate resilient" energy system. It will emphasize putting ideas into action - moving forward on policy and practice.

  13. U.S. Department of Energy Global Change Fellowships, 1991-2006: Participant Follow-Up

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education

    2006-09-01

    This report provides information on the impact of two U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) programs supporting graduate study related to global change. The information was obtained from former fellows in the two programs, and the report examines their subsequent careers and the benefits of program participation.

  14. National Institute for Global Environmental Change, July 1, 1994-- June 30, 1995

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-12-31

    This document contains the report from the National Institute for Global Environmental Change for the period July 1, 1994 to June 30, 1995. Separate sections for the Great Plains, Midwestern, Norhteast, South Central, Southeast and Western regions are present. Each section contains project descriptions and abstracts for projects managed by the respective regional offices.

  15. Embedding climate change risk assessment within a governance context

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Preston, Benjamin L

    2011-01-01

    Climate change adaptation is increasingly being framed in the context of climate risk management. This has contributed to the proliferation of climate change vulnerability and/or risk assessments as means of supporting institutional decision-making regarding adaptation policies and measures. To date, however, little consideration has been given to how such assessment projects and programs interact with governance systems to facilitate or hinder the implementation of adaptive responses. An examination of recent case studies involving Australian local governments reveals two key linkages between risk assessment and the governance of adaptation. First, governance systems influence how risk assessment processes are conducted, by whom they are conducted, and whom they are meant to inform. Australia s governance system emphasizes evidence-based decision-making that reinforces a knowledge deficit model of decision support. Assessments are often carried out by external experts on behalf of local government, with limited participation by relevant stakeholders and/or civil society. Second, governance systems influence the extent to which the outputs from risk assessment activities are translated into adaptive responses and outcomes. Technical information regarding risk is often stranded by institutional barriers to adaptation including poor uptake of information, competition on the policy agenda, and lack of sufficient entitlements. Yet, risk assessments can assist in bringing such barriers to the surface, where they can be debated and resolved. In fact, well-designed risk assessments can contribute to multi-loop learning by institutions, and that reflexive problem orientation may be one of the more valuable benefits of assessment.

  16. Global

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Permalink EC, DHS's S&T Directorate, Federal Emergency Management Agency: SUMMIT Analysis, Capabilities, Facilities, Global, Infrastructure Security, Modeling, Modeling & Analysis, NISAC, Partnership, Research & Capabilities EC, DHS's S&T Directorate, Federal Emergency Management Agency: SUMMIT Natural disasters create emergency situations that must be dealt with quickly and effectively in order to minimize injury and loss of life. Simulating such events before they occur can

  17. Physically-Based Global Downscaling: Climate Change Projections for a Full Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghan, Steven J.; Shippert, Timothy R.

    2006-05-01

    A global atmosphere/land model with an embedded subgrid orography scheme is used to simulate the period 1977-2100 using ocean surface conditions and radiative constituent concentrations for a climate change scenario. Climate variables simulated for multiple elevation classes are mapping according to the high-resolution of topography in ten regions with complex terrain. Analysis of changes in the simulated climate lead to the following conclusions. Changes in precipitation vary widely, with precipitation increasing more with increasing altitude in some region, decreasing more with altitude in others, and changing little in still others. In some regions the sign of the precipitation change depends on surface elevation. Changes in surface air temperature are rather uniform, with at most a two-fold difference between the largest and smallest changes within a region. In most cases the warming increases with altitude. Changes in snow water are highly dependent on altitude. Absolute changes usually increase with altitude, while relative changes decrease. In places where snow accumulates, an artificial upper bound on snow water limits the sensitivity of snow water to climate change considerably. The simulated impact of climate change on regional mean snow water varies widely, with little impact in regions in which the upper bound on snow water is the dominant snow water sink, moderate impact in regions with a mixture of seasonal and permanent snow, and profound impacts on regions with little permanent snow.

  18. Physically-Based Global Downscaling Climate Change Projections for a Full Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghan, Steven J.; Shippert, Timothy R.

    2005-04-15

    A global atmosphere/land model with an embedded subgrid orography scheme is used to simulate the period 1977-2100 using ocean surface conditions and radiative constituent concentrations for a climate change scenario. Climate variables simulated for multiple elevation classes are mapping according to a high-resolution elevation dataset in ten regions with complex terrain. Analysis of changes in the simulated climate leads to the following conclusions. Changes in precipitation vary widely, with precipitation increasing more with increasing altitude in some region, decreasing more with altitude in others, and changing little in still others. In some regions the sign of the precipitation change depends on surface elevation. Changes in surface air temperature are rather uniform, with at most a two-fold difference between the largest and smallest changes within a region; in most cases the warming increases with altitude. Changes in snow water are highly dependent on altitude. Absolute changes usually increase with altitude, while relative changes decrease. In places where snow accumulates, an artificial upper bound on snow water limits the sensitivity of snow water to climate change considerably. The simulated impact of climate change on regional mean snow water varies widely, with little impact in regions in which the upper bound on snow water is the dominant snow water sink, moderate impact in regions with a mixture of seasonal and permanent snow, and profound impacts on regions with little permanent snow.

  19. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Idaho National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Christopher P. Ischay; Ernest L. Fossum; Polly C. Buotte; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Alexander Peterson

    2014-10-01

    The University of Idaho (UI) was asked to participate in the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This report describes the outcome of that assessment. The climate change happening now, due in large part to human activities, is expected to continue in the future. UI and INL used a common framework for assessing vulnerability that considers exposure (future climate change), sensitivity (system or component responses to climate), impact (exposure combined with sensitivity), and adaptive capacity (capability of INL to modify operations to minimize climate change impacts) to assess vulnerability. Analyses of climate change (exposure) revealed that warming that is ongoing at INL will continue in the coming decades, with increased warming in later decades and under scenarios of greater greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of precipitation are more uncertain, with multi model means exhibiting somewhat wetter conditions and more wet days per year. Additional impacts relevant to INL include estimates of more burned area and increased evaporation and transpiration, leading to reduced soil moisture and plant growth.

  20. Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

    2009-08-01

    Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on a grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.

  1. Replacement of chlorofluorocarbons at the DOE gaseous diffusion plants: An assessment of global impacts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Socolof, M.L.; McCold, L.N.; Saylor, R.E.

    1997-01-01

    Three gaseous diffusion plants (GDPs) for enriching uranium maintain a large inventory of chlorofluorocarbon-114 (CFC-114) as a coolant. To address the continued use of CFC-114, an ozone-depleting substance, the US Department of Energy (DOE) considered introducing perfluorocarbons (PFCs) by the end of 1995. These PFCs would not contribute to stratospheric ozone depletion but would be larger contributors to global warming than would CFC-114. The paper reports the results of an assessment of the global impacts of four alternatives for modifying GDP coolant system operations over a three-year period beginning in 1996. The overall contribution of GDP coolant releases to impacts on ozone depletion and global warming were quantified by parameters referred to as ozone-depletion impact and global-warming impact. The analysis showed that these parameters could be used as surrogates for predicting global impacts to all resources and could provide a framework for assessing environmental impacts of a permanent coolant replacement, eliminating the need for subsequent resource-specific analyses.

  2. Modeling U.S. Energy Use Changes with Global Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadley, Stanton W; Erickson III, David J; Hernandez Figueroa, Jose L

    2006-09-01

    Using a general circulation model of Earth climate (PCM-IBIS) to drive an energy use model (DD-NEMS), we calculated the energy use changes for each year from 2003-2025 for the nine U.S. Census regions. We used five scenarios: 1) a reference with no change in temperatures from the 1970-2003 average, 2) a gradual 1 F rise in temperature by 2025, 3) a gradual 3 F rise by 2025, 4) a climate simulation with low temperature response to CO2 doubling in the atmosphere, and 5) a climate simulation with a more extreme response. The low-?T scenario had a cumulative reduction in energy of 2.1 Quads but an increase in cost of $14.8 billion. The northern states had reductions in cost over the entire period, but most other regions had increases in costs because increases in cooling costs outweighed reductions in heating and other energy uses. Higher temperature sensitivity resulted in increased warming, especially in the winter months. Because heating needs decreased, total energy requirements declined by a cumulative 4.2 Quads. However, total cost still increased $6.1 billion and carbon emissions still rose as coal-based electricity for cooling needs grew.

  3. National Institute for Global Environmental Change. Semi-annual report, July 1, 1991--December 31, 1991

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Werth, G.C.

    1992-04-01

    This document is the Semi-Annual Report of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change for the reporting period July 1 to December 31, 1991. The report is in two parts. Part I presents the mission of the Institute, examples of progress toward that mission, a brief description of the revised management plan, and the financial report. Part II presents the statements of the Regional Center Directors along with progress reports of the projects written by the researchers themselves.

  4. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-08-25

    In this paper, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumpingmore » scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change

  5. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-08-25

    In this paper, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change impact

  6. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-08-25

    Abstract In this study, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change

  7. Carbon dioxide and global climate change: The birth and arrested development of an idea

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mudge, F.B.

    1996-12-31

    G.S. Callendar (1897--1964) is regarded the originator of the modern theory of carbon dioxide and global climate change. However, this paper shows that the theory was developed and became well accepted during the nineteenth century. Carbon dioxide was discovered by Black in 1752. From 1820 to 1890 a steadily growing number of measurements of its atmospheric concentration were made using steadily improving techniques; the average results fell from around 500 ppm in 1820 to about 300 ppm in 1890. By the end of the following decade the greenhouse theory of global climate change seemed widely accepted. However in 1900 and 1901 Aangstroem appeared to demolish the theory when he reported that changes in the carbon dioxide level can have little effect because of the overlap of the water and carbon dioxide spectral bands. At a stroke, all interest in the measurement of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels seemed to disappear, although during the 1920s and 1930s a few workers resumed the work but for reasons unconnected to climate change. Over the next thirty years the writers of authoritative textbooks dismissed the theory of carbon dioxide and climate change as an example of misguided speculation. Then in 1938 Callendar`s first paper appeared, reviving the theory which had lain forgotten for nearly forty years.

  8. Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sale, Michael J.; Shih-Chieh, Kao; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Kaiser, Dale P.; Martinez, Rocio; Webb, Cindy; Wei, Yaxing

    2012-10-01

    As directed by Congress in Section 9505 of the SECURE Water Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-11), the US Department of Energy (DOE), in consultation with the federal Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) and other federal agencies, including federal dam owners, has prepared a comprehensive assessment examining the effects of climate change on water available for hydropower at federal facilities and on the marketing of power from these federal facilities. This Oak Ridge National Laboratory report, referred to as the “9505 Assessment,” describes the technical basis for the report to Congress that was called for in the SECURE Water Act.

  9. Interdependency of fire and global change: The southern U.S. as an example

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zerbe, J.I.

    1995-06-01

    In the US South, increasing population, air pollution, urbanization of forest lands, and possible changes in climate can influence broad changes in forests and the atmosphere. As a result emissions from biomass burning in forests assume greater significance. For 350 years, people in the US South have practices woods burning. This was once considered a bad practice, but it is now recognized that this can assist in site preparation, release of longleaf pine seedlings, and improving production of plantations. One of the concerns with burning, both controlled and wildfire, is the release of undesirable chemicals to the atmosphere. Encroachment of wildfires on inhabited areas can threaten human life and property. And important to global warming, wildfires and controlled burning release CO{sub 2} and add to increase in CO{sub 2} concentration. Climate warming as a result of global change can cause drier forests and an increase in severity and extent of wildfires. Climate-driven changes in the structure and composition of plant communities will alter the chemical and physical properties of fuels, thereby altering susceptibility to fires.

  10. The role of moisture transport between ground and atmosphere in global change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rind, D.; Rosenzweig, C.; Stieglitz, M.

    1997-12-31

    Projections of the effect of climate change on future water availability are examined by reviewing the formulations used to calculate moisture transport between the ground and the atmosphere. General circulation models and climate change impact models have substantially different formulations for evapotranspiration, so their projections of future water availability often disagree, even though they use the same temperature and precipitation forecasts. General circulation models forecast little change in tropical and subtropical water availability, while impact models show severe water and agricultural shortages. A comparison of observations and modeling techniques shows that the parameterizations in general circulation models likely lead to an underestimate of the impacts of global warming on soil moisture and vegetation. Such errors would crucially affect the temperature and precipitation forecasts used in impact models. Some impact model evaporation formulations are probably more appropriate than those in general circulation models, but important questions remain. More observations are needed, especially in the vicinity of forests, to determine appropriate parameterizations.

  11. Global Climate Change and the Transportation Sector: An Update on Issues and Mitigation Options

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Geffen, CA; Dooley, JJ; Kim, SH

    2003-08-24

    It is clear from numerous energy/economic modeling exercises that addressing the challenges posed by global climate change will eventually require the active participation of all industrial sectors and all consumers on the planet. Yet, these and similar modeling exercises indicate that large stationary CO2 point sources (e.g., refineries and fossil-fired electric power plants) are often the first targets considered for serious CO2 emissions mitigation. Without participation of all sectors of the global economy, however, the challenges of climate change mitigation will not be met. Because of its operating characteristics, price structure, dependence on virtually one energy source (oil), enormous installed infrastructure, and limited technology alternatives, at least in the near-term, the transportation sector will likely represent a particularly difficult challenge for CO2 emissions mitigation. Our research shows that climate change induced price signals (i.e., putting a price on carbon that is emitted to the atmosphere) are in the near term insufficient to drive fundamental shifts in demand for energy services or to transform the way these services are provided in the transportation sector. We believe that a technological revolution will be necessary to accomplish the significant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. This paper presents an update of ongoing research into a variety of technological options that exist for decarbonizing the transportation sector and the various tradeoffs among them.

  12. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Krnv, Lone; Driscoll, Patrick

    2013-11-15

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies reduction and resilience, denying, ignoring and postponing. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty.

  13. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Dale, V. H.; Rauscher, H. M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  14. Managing the global commons decision making and conflict resolution in response to climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rayner, S. ); Naegeli, W.; Lund, P. )

    1990-07-01

    A workshop was convened to develop a better understanding of decision-making matters concerning management of the global commons and to resolve conflicts in response to climate change. This workshop report does not provide a narrative of the proceedings. The workshop program is included, as are the abstracts of the papers that were presented. Only the introductory paper on social science research by William Riebsame and the closing summary by Richard Rockwell are reprinted here. This brief report focuses instead on the deliberations of the working groups that developed during the workshop. 4 figs., 1 tab.

  15. Next Generation Climate Change Experiments Needed to Advance Knowledge and for Assessment of CMIP6

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Katzenberger, John; Arnott, James; Wright, Alyson

    2014-10-30

    The Aspen Global Change Institute hosted a technical science workshop entitled, Next generation climate change experiments needed to advance knowledge and for assessment of CMIP6, on August 4-9, 2013 in Aspen, CO. Jerry Meehl (NCAR), Richard Moss (PNNL), and Karl Taylor (LLNL) served as co-chairs for the workshop which included the participation of 32 scientists representing most of the major climate modeling centers for a total of 160 participant days. In August 2013, AGCI gathered a high level meeting of representatives from major climate modeling centers around the world to assess achievements and lessons learned from the most recent generation of coordinated modeling experiments known as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) as well as to scope out the science questions and coordination structure desired for the next anticipated phase of modeling experiments called CMIP6. The workshop allowed for reflection on the coordination of the CMIP5 process as well as intercomparison of model results, such as were assessed in the most recent IPCC 5th Assessment Report, Working Group 1. For example, this slide from Masahiro Watanabe examines performance on a range of models capturing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

  16. Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marten, Alex; Kopp, Robert E.; Shouse, Kate C.; Griffiths, Charles; Hodson, Elke L.; Kopits, Elizabeth; Mignone, Bryan K.; Moore, Chris; Newbold, Steve; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Wolverton, Ann

    2013-04-01

    The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a monetized metric for evaluating the benefits associated with marginal reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It represents the expected welfare loss from the future damages caused by the release of one tonne of CO2 in a given year, expressed in consumption equivalent terms. It is intended to be a comprehensive measure, taking into account changes in agricultural productivity, human health risks, loss of ecosystem services and biodiversity, and the frequency and severity of flooding and storms, among other possible impacts. Estimating the SCC requires long-term modeling of global economic activity, the climate system, and the linkages between the two through anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the effects of changing climatic conditions on economic activity and human well-being. The United States government currently uses the SCC in regulatory benefit-cost analyses to assess the welfare effects of changes in CO2 emissions. Consistent application of the SCC to federal rulemaking analyses began in 2009-2010 with the development of a set of global SCC estimates that employed three prominent integrated assessment models (IAMs) -- DICE, FUND, and PAGE. The U.S. government report identified a number of limitations associated with SCC estimates in general and its own assumptions in particular: an incomplete treatment of damages, including potential “catastrophic” impacts; uncertainty regarding the extrapolation of damage functions to high temperatures; incomplete treatment of adaptation and technological change; and the evaluation of uncertain outcomes in a risk-neutral fashion. External experts have identified other potential issues, including how best to model long-term socio-economic and emissions pathways, oversimplified physical climate and carbon cycle modeling within the IAMs, and an inconsistency between non-constant economic growth scenarios and constant discount rates. The U.S. government has committed

  17. Nuclear reference materials to meet the changing needs of the global nuclear community

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martin, H.R.; Gradle, C.G.; Narayanan, U.I.; Oldham, R.D.

    1995-12-31

    New Brunswick Laboratory (NBL) serves as the U.S. Government`s certifying authority for nuclear reference materials and measurement calibration standards. In this role, NBL provides nuclear reference materials certified for chemical and/or isotopic compositions traceable to a nationally accepted, internationally compatible reference base. Emphasis is now changing as to the types of traceable nuclear reference materials needed as operations change within the Department of Energy complex and at nuclear facilities around the world. New challenges include: environmental and waste minimization issues, facilities and materials transitioning from processing to storage modes with corresponding changes in the types of measurements being performed, emphasis on requirements for characterization of waste materials, and difficulties in transporting nuclear materials and international factors, including IAEA influences. During these changing times, it is critical that traceable reference materials be provided for calibration or validation of the performance of measurement systems. This paper will describe actions taken and planned to meet the changing reference material needs of the global nuclear community.

  18. Nuclear reference materials to meet the changing needs of the global nuclear community

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martin, H.R.; Gradle, C.G.; Narayanan, U.I.; Oldham, R.D.; Mitchell, W.G.

    1995-12-31

    New Brunswick Laboratory (NBL) serves as the US Government`s Certifying Authority for nuclear reference materials and measurement calibration standards. In this role, NBL provides nuclear reference materials certified for chemical and/or isotopic compositions traceable to a nationally accepted, internationally compatible reference base. Emphasis is now changing as to the types of traceable nuclear reference materials needed as operations change within the Department of Energy (DOE) complex and at nuclear facilities around the world. Environmental and waste minimization issues, facilities and materials transitioning from processing to storage modes with corresponding changes in the types of measurements being performed, emphasis on requirements for characterization of waste materials, difficulties in transporting nuclear materials, and International factors, including International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection of excess US nuclear materials, are all contributing influences. During these changing times, ft is critical that traceable reference materials be provided for calibration or validation of the performance of measurement systems. This paper will describe actions taken and planned to meet the changing reference material needs of the global nuclear community.

  19. Agriculture and Climate Change in Global Scenarios: Why Don't the Models Agree

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Gerald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Calvin, Katherine V.; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; Mueller, C.; Reilly, J. M.; Robertson, Richard; Sands, Ronald; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs makes direct use of weather inputs. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes of key variables such as prices, production, and trade. These divergent outcomes arise from differences in model inputs and model specification. The goal of this paper is to review climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By providing common productivity drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes are reduced. All models show higher prices in 2050 because of negative productivity shocks from climate change. The magnitude of the price increases, and the adaptation responses, differ significantly across the various models. Substantial differences exist in the structural parameters affecting demand, area, and yield, and should be a topic for future research.

  20. Energy and Climate Change: 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy, and the Environment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment: Energy and Climate Change will develop and advance partnerships that focus on transitioning the world to a new ...

  1. Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    McCollum, David L.; Wilson, Charlie; Pettifor, Hazel; Ramea, Kalai; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan; Bertram, Christoph; Lin, Zhenhong; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Fujisawa, Sei

    2016-05-03

    A large body of transport sector-focused research recognizes the complexity of human behavior in relation to mobility. Yet, global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which are widely used to evaluate the costs, potentials, and consequences of different greenhouse gas emission trajectories over the medium-to-long term, typically represent behavior and the end use of energy as a simple rational choice between available alternatives, even though abundant empirical evidence shows that real-world decision making is more complex and less routinely rational. This paper demonstrates the value of incorporating certain features of consumer behavior in IAMs, focusing on light-duty vehicle (LDV) purchase decisions. Anmore » innovative model formulation is developed to represent heterogeneous consumer groups with varying preferences for vehicle novelty, range, refueling/recharging availability, and variety. The formulation is then implemented in the transport module of MESSAGE-Transport, a global IAM, although it also has the generic flexibility to be applied in energy-economy models with varying set-ups. Comparison of conventional and behaviorally-realistic model runs with respect to vehicle purchase decisions shows that consumer preferences may slow down the transition to alternative fuel (low-carbon) vehicles. Consequently, stronger price-based incentives and/or non-price based measures may be needed to transform the global fleet of passenger vehicles, at least in the initial market phases of novel alternatives. Otherwise, the mitigation burden borne by other transport sub-sectors and other energy sectors could be higher than previously estimated. Moreover, capturing behavioral features of energy consumers in global IAMs increases their usefulness to policy makers by allowing a more realistic assessment of a more diverse suite of policies.« less

  2. Climate Change Projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mearns, L. O.; Sain, Steve; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; McGinnis, Seth; Biner, S.; Caya, Daniel; Arritt, R.; Gutowski, William; Takle, Eugene S.; Snyder, Mark A.; Jones, Richard; Nunes, A M B.; Tucker, S.; Herzmann, D.; McDaniel, Larry; Sloan, Lisa

    2013-10-01

    We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs.

  3. DOE SBIR Phase II Final Technical Report - Assessing Climate Change Effects on Wind Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whiteman, Cameron; Capps, Scott

    2014-11-05

    Specialized Vertum Partners software tools were prototyped, tested and commercialized to allow wind energy stakeholders to assess the uncertainties of climate change on wind power production and distribution. This project resulted in three commercially proven products and a marketing tool. The first was a Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) based resource evaluation system. The second was a web-based service providing global 10m wind data from multiple sources to wind industry subscription customers. The third product addressed the needs of our utility clients looking at climate change effects on electricity distribution. For this we collaborated on the Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index (SAWTi), which was released publicly last quarter. Finally to promote these products and educate potential users we released “Gust or Bust”, a graphic-novel styled marketing publication.

  4. Assessing the state-level consequences of global warming: Socio-economic and energy demand impacts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rubin, B.M. Gailmard, S.; Marsh, D.; Septoff, A.

    1996-12-31

    The large body of research on climate change has begun to recognize a significant deficiency: the lack of analysis of the impact of climate change at a spatial level consistent with the anticipated occurrence of climate change. Climate change is likely to vary by region, while impact analysis has focused on much larger political units. Clearly, adaptation/mitigation strategies must be developed at a level consistent with political and policy-making processes. This paper specifically addresses this deficiency by identifying the potential socio-economic and energy demand consequences of climate change for subnational regions. This is accomplished via the development and application of a regional simultaneous equation, econometric simulation model that focuses on five states (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin) in the Great Lakes region of the US. This paper presents a process for obtaining state-specific assessments of the consequences of climate change for the socio-economic system. As such, it provides an indication of which economic sectors are most sensitive to climate change for a specific state (Indiana), a set of initial mitigation/adaptation strategies for this state, and the results of testing these strategies in the policy analysis framework enabled by the model. In addition, the research demonstrates an effective methodology for assessing impacts and policy implications of climate change at a level consistent with policy making authority.

  5. Global warming risk assessment as it is taught at the university level

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tarassova, N.P.; Malkov, A.V.

    1997-12-31

    It has already become a common place that global warming is the price payed by the civilization for the commodities of the modem life. Various branches of human activities, different types of industrial enterprises make their contributions (direct or indirect) to the Global Warming process, the impact being quite different under the {open_quote}normal{close_quotes} and {open_quote}accident{close_quotes} modes of functioning. The development of industry resulted in the considerable number of techogenic catastrophes, the consequences of the man-made disasters exceeding the ones of the natural disasters. Our statement is that in the modern education at the university level the problems of the risk analysis must be dealt with in the standard curriculum especially if technical universities are under consideration. The students are to be tought how to access the risk at the local, regional and global levels, and how to apply the skills and knowledge gained at the university to the already existing technologies, as well as to the ones under projection. The reliability of risk assessment approaches will determine the level of risk and the amount of economic resources needed to manage the risk.

  6. Impacts of climate change on human settlements: Guidelines for assessing impacts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scott, M.J.

    1993-11-01

    This paper presents guidelines for assessing impacts of climatic change on human populations. Topics discussed include types of settlements and assessment methodologies.

  7. Trends `91: A compendium of data on global change---highlights

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W.

    1992-03-01

    The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has been prompted to produce the series Trends, a concise inventory of data in response to heightened concern about global environmental issues, in particular climate changes induced by the greenhouse effect. This report contains extracts from Trends `91 to illustrate the content, style, and presentation of data contained in the full 700-page report. This report includes a listing of the investigators contributing data for Trends `91. In addition, it contains the abstract, foreword, and acknowledgments, as well as the introduction and a sample data record from each of the reports`s five chapters. The chapters are ``Atmospheric CO{sub 2},`` ``Atmospheric CH{sub 4},`` ``Other Trace Gases,`` ``CO{sub 2} Emissions,`` and ``Temperature.`` Appendix A provides information about CDIAC and its activities related to global environmental issues. Appendix B lists the contents of the full report. An order form for obtaining a free copy of Trends `91 is found in Appendix C.

  8. Trends '91: A compendium of data on global change---highlights

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W.

    1992-03-01

    The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has been prompted to produce the series Trends, a concise inventory of data in response to heightened concern about global environmental issues, in particular climate changes induced by the greenhouse effect. This report contains extracts from Trends '91 to illustrate the content, style, and presentation of data contained in the full 700-page report. This report includes a listing of the investigators contributing data for Trends '91. In addition, it contains the abstract, foreword, and acknowledgments, as well as the introduction and a sample data record from each of the reports's five chapters. The chapters are Atmospheric CO[sub 2],'' Atmospheric CH[sub 4],'' Other Trace Gases,'' CO[sub 2] Emissions,'' and Temperature.'' Appendix A provides information about CDIAC and its activities related to global environmental issues. Appendix B lists the contents of the full report. An order form for obtaining a free copy of Trends '91 is found in Appendix C.

  9. The response of mangroves to projected impacts of global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Twilley, R.R.; Chen, R.H.

    1995-06-01

    A hierarchical classification system for mangroves together with a community-based ecological model (ESA abstract by Chen and Twilley, 1995) were used to asses the response of mangroves to global climate change. The hierarchical classification includes a matrix of the ecological type (riverine, fringe, basin, and dwarf mangroves) and the geomorphologic environmental setting (delta, estuarine, lagoon, carbonate platform systems). The significance of this hierarchical classification, referred to as a eco-geomorphic system, is demonstrated with a summary of the spatial variation in ecosystem function among different coastal settings. Changes in sea level, frequency of frost, and frequency of hurricanes were simulated and results of forest community composition, tree density and dominance, and forest biomass were compared to field sites of known disturbance. For lagoon basin forests, hurricane frequency increase from 28 yrs to 15 yrs had less impact on total biomass than increase in frost from 12 yrs to 8 yrs. Both disturbances changed the community composition of the forests. The patterns of recovery vary among geomorphic types due to nutrient limitation of regrowth.

  10. International potential of IGCC technology for use in reducing global warming and climate change emissions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lau, F.S.

    1996-12-31

    High efficiency advanced coal-based technologies such as Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) that can assist in reducing CO{sub 2} emissions which contribute to Global Warming and Climate Change are becoming commercially available. U-GAS is an advanced gasification technology that can be used in many applications to convert coal in a high efficiency manner that will reduce the total amount of CO{sub 2} produced by requiring less coal-based fuel per unit of energy output. This paper will focus on the status of the installation and performance of the IGT U-GAS gasifiers which were installed at the Shanghai Cooking and Chemical Plant General located in Shanghai, China. Its use in future IGCC project for the production of power and the benefits of IGCC in reducing CO{sub 2} emissions through its high efficiency operation will be discussed.

  11. Global Climate Change: Some Implications, Opportunities, and Challenges for US Forestry

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Marland, G.

    1991-06-01

    It is widely agreed that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth`s atmosphere is increasing, that this increase is a consequence of man`s activities, and that there is significant risk that this will lead to changes in the earth`s climate. The question is now being discussed what, if anything, we should be doing to minimize and/or adapt to changes in climate. Virtually every statement on this matter; from the US Office of Technology Assessment, to the National Academy of Science, to the Nairobi Declaration on Climatic Change, includes some recommendation for planting and protecting forests. In fact, forestry is intimately involved in the climate change debate for several reasons: changing climate patterns will affect existing forests, tropical deforestation is one of the major sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, reforestation projects could remove additional carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and there is renewed interest in wood-based or other renewable fuels to replace fossil fuels. Part of the enthusiasm for forestry-related strategies in a greenhouse context is the perception that forests not only provide greenhouse benefits but also serve other desirable social objectives. This discussion will explore the current range of thinking in this area and try to stimulate additional thinking on the rationality of the forestry-based approaches and the challenges posed for US forestry.

  12. Global climate change and international security. Report on a conference held at Argonne National Laboratory, May 8--10, 1991

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, M.

    1991-12-31

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  13. Global warming and climate change - predictive models for temperate and tropical regions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Malini, B.H.

    1997-12-31

    Based on the assumption of 4{degree}C increase of global temperature by the turn of 21st century due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases an attempt is made to study the possible variations in different climatic regimes. The predictive climatic water balance model for Hokkaido island of Japan (a temperate zone) indicates the possible occurrence of water deficit for two to three months, which is a unknown phenomenon in this region at present. Similarly, India which represents tropical region also will experience much drier climates with increased water deficit conditions. As a consequence, the thermal region of Hokkaido which at present is mostly Tundra and Micro thermal will change into a Meso thermal category. Similarly, the moisture regime which at present supports per humid (A2, A3 and A4) and Humid (B4) climates can support A1, B4, B3, B2 and B1 climates indicating a shift towards drier side of the climatic spectrum. Further, the predictive modes of both the regions have indicated increased evapotranspiration rates. Although there is not much of change in the overall thermal characteristics of the Indian region the moisture regime indicates a clear shift towards the aridity in the country.

  14. Evaluation of Global Monsoon Precipitation Changes based on Five Reanalysis Datasets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin, Renping; Zhou, Tianjun; Qian, Yun

    2014-02-01

    With the motivation to identify whether or not a reasonably simulated atmospheric circulation would necessarily lead to a successful reproduction of monsoon precipitation, the performances of five sets of reanalysis data (NCEP2, ERA40, JRA25, ERA-Interim and MERRA) in reproducing the climatology, interannual variation and long-term trend of global monsoon (GM) precipitation are comprehensively evaluated. In order to better understand the variability and long-term trend of GM precipitation, we also examined the major components of water budget, including evaporation, water vapor convergence and the change in local water vapor storage, based on five reanalysis datasets. The results show that all five reanalysis data reasonably reproduce the climatology of GM precipitation. The ERA-Interim (NCEP2) shows the highest (lowest) skill among the five datasets. The observed GM precipitation shows an increasing tendency during 1979-2001 along with a strong interannual variability, which is reasonably reproduced by the five sets of reanalysis data. The observed increasing trend of GM precipitation is dominated by the contribution from the North African, North American and Australian monsoons. All five data fail in reproducing the increasing tendency of North African monsoon precipitation. The wind convergence term in water budget equation dominate the GM precipitation variation, indicating a consistency between the GM precipitation and the seasonal change of prevailing wind.

  15. Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brian C. O'Neill

    2006-08-09

    This report describes results of the research project on "Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics". The overall objective of this project was to improve projections of energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions by taking into account demographic factors currently not incorporated in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of global climate change. We proposed to examine the potential magnitude of effects on energy demand of changes in the composition of populations by household characteristics for three countries: the U.S., China, and Indonesia. For each country, we planned to analyze household energy use survey data to estimate relationships between household characteristics and energy use; develop a new set of detailed household projections for each country; and combine these analyses to produce new projections of energy demand illustrating the potential importance of consideration of households.

  16. Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-01-01

    While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.

  17. Downscaling Global Land Cover Projections from an Integrated Assessment Model for Use in Regional Analyses: Results and Evaluation for the US from 2005 to 2095

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    West, Tristram O.; Le Page, Yannick LB; Huang, Maoyi; Wolf, Julie; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-06-05

    Projections of land cover change generated from Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and other economic-based models can be applied for analyses of environmental impacts at subregional and landscape scales. For those IAM and economic models that project land use at the sub-continental or regional scale, these projections must be downscaled and spatially distributed prior to use in climate or ecosystem models. Downscaling efforts to date have been conducted at the national extent with relatively high spatial resolution (30m) and at the global extent with relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.5 degree).

  18. Global warming implications of facade parameters: A life cycle assessment of residential buildings in Bahrain

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Radhi, Hassan; Sharples, Stephen

    2013-01-15

    On a global scale, the Gulf Corporation Council Countries (GCCC), including Bahrain, are amongst the top countries in terms of carbon dioxide emissions per capita. Building authority in Bahrain has set a target of 40% reduction of electricity consumption and associated CO{sub 2} emissions to be achieved by using facade parameters. This work evaluates how the life cycle CO{sub 2} emissions of buildings are affected by facade parameters. The main focus is placed on direct and indirect CO{sub 2} emissions from three contributors, namely, chemical reactions during production processes (Pco{sub 2}), embodied energy (Eco{sub 2}) and operational energy (OPco{sub 2}). By means of the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology, it has been possible to show that the greatest environmental impact occurs during the operational phase (80-90%). However, embodied CO{sub 2} emissions are an important factor that needs to be brought into the systems used for appraisal of projects, and hence into the design decisions made in developing projects. The assessment shows that masonry blocks are responsible for 70-90% of the total CO{sub 2} emissions of facade construction, mainly due to their physical characteristics. The highest Pco{sub 2} emissions factors are those of window elements, particularly aluminium frames. However, their contribution of CO{sub 2} emissions depends largely on the number and size of windows. Each square metre of glazing is able to increase the total CO{sub 2} emissions by almost 30% when compared with the same areas of opaque walls. The use of autoclaved aerated concrete (AAC) walls reduces the total life cycle CO{sub 2} emissions by almost 5.2% when compared with ordinary walls, while the use of thermal insulation with concrete wall reduces CO{sub 2} emissions by 1.2%. The outcome of this work offers to the building industry a reliable indicator of the environmental impact of residential facade parameters. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Life cycle

  19. Impact of modern climate change on the intercommunication: Global ocean-land (Northern Hemisphere)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lobanova, H.V.; Lobanov, V.A.; Stepanenko, S.R.

    1996-12-31

    Two main temperature gradients define the synoptic and climatic conditions on the earth in general: equator-pole gradient and ocean-land gradient. The analysis of temperature on the basis of new cyclic-different-scales conception has been fulfilled in every important part of the climatic system in the Northern Hemisphere for assessment of their vulnerability to modern climate change. Historical time series of monthly surface temperature have been used for this aim in the points of regular grid over the Northern Hemisphere from 1891 to 1992. The main feature of the temperature in main climatic parts of the earth is a complexity of its spatial structure. New methods of spatial decomposition have been developed for the division of this complex fields structure into characteristics of mean value of the field and index of its non-homogeneity or spatial variation. It has been established, that the temperature gradient between ocean and land is increasing that is characterized of the increasing of an intensity of synoptic processes, their spatial non-homogeneity and more frequent appearance of the extreme synoptic events. The models of intercommunications between coefficients of temperature spatial decomposition over the ocean and land have been developed for two time period and the increasing of the relationships closeness has been established between ocean and land as well as the decrease of main planet gradient: the pole(the Polar ocean)-equator.

  20. Global climate change mitigation and sustainable forest management--The challenge of monitoring and verification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makundi, Willy R.

    1997-12-31

    In this paper, sustainable forest management is discussed within the historical and theoretical framework of the sustainable development debate. The various criteria and indicators for sustainable forest management put forth by different institutions are critically explored. Specific types of climate change mitigation policies/projects in the forest sector are identified and examined in the light of the general criteria for sustainable forest management. Areas of compatibility and contradiction between the climate mitigation objectives and the minimum criteria for sustainable forest management are identified and discussed. Emphasis is put on the problems of monitoring and verifying carbon benefits associated with such projects given their impacts on pre-existing policy objectives on sustainable forest management. The implications of such policy interactions on assignment of carbon credits from forest projects under Joint Implementation/Activities Implemented Jointly initiatives are discussed. The paper concludes that a comprehensive monitoring and verification regime must include an impact assessment on the criteria covered under other agreements such as the Biodiversity and/or Desertification Conventions. The actual carbon credit assigned to a specific project should at least take into account the negative impacts on the criteria for sustainable forest management. The value of the impacts and/or the procedure to evaluate them need to be established by interested parties such as the Councils of the respective Conventions.

  1. Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    As directed by Congress in Section 9505 of the SECURE Water Act of 2009 (Public Law ... the effects of climate change on water available for hydropower at federal ...

  2. Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This Oak Ridge National Laboratory TM report, referred to as the "9505 Assessment" describes the technical basis for the report to Congress that was called for in the SECURE Water Act. The 9505...

  3. RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Webster, Mort David

    2015-03-10

    This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The research project consists of three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment. Results in each area is described in the report.

  4. International impacts of global climate change: Testimony to House Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations, Export Financing and Related Programs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fulkerson, W.; Cushman, R.M.; Marland, G.; Rayner, S.

    1989-02-21

    International impacts of global climate change are those for which the important consequences arise because of national sovereignty. Such impacts could be of two types: (1) migrations across national borders of people, of resources (such as agricultural productivity, or surface water, or natural ecosystems), of effluents, or of patterns of commerce; and (2) changes to the way nations use and manage their resources, particularly fossil fuels and forests, as a consequence of international concern over the global climate. Actions by a few resource-dominant nations may affect the fate of all. These two types of international impacts raise complex equity issues because one nation may perceive itself as gaining at the expense of its neighbors, or it may perceive itself as a victim of the actions of others. 11 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  5. International Impacts of Global Climate Change: Testimony to House Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations, Export Financing and Related Programs

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Fulkerson, W.; Cushman, R. M.; Marland, G.; Rayner, S.

    1989-02-21

    International impacts of global climate change are those for which the important consequences arise because of national sovereignty. Such impacts could be of two types: (1) migrations across national borders of people, of resources (such as agricultural productivity, or surface water, or natural ecosystems), of effluents, or of patterns of commerce; and (2) changes to the way nations use and manage their resources, particularly fossil fuels and forests, as a consequence of international concern over the global climate. Actions by a few resource-dominant nations may affect the fate of all. These two types of international impacts raise complex equity issues because one nation may perceive itself as gaining at the expense of its neighbors, or it may perceive itself as a victim of the actions of others.

  6. Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) Interdisciplinary Science Workshop: Decadal Climate Prediction; Aspen, CO; June 22-28, 2008

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Katzenberger, John

    2010-03-12

    Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10?30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes.

  7. Case study on the utility of hepatic global gene expression profiling in the risk assessment of the carcinogen furan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jackson, Anna Francina; Williams, Andrew; Recio, Leslie; Waters, Michael D.; Lambert, Iain B.; Yauk, Carole L.

    2014-01-01

    Furan is a chemical hepatocarcinogen in mice and rats. Its previously postulated cancer mode of action (MOA) is chronic cytotoxicity followed by sustained regenerative proliferation; however, its molecular basis is unknown. To this end, we conducted toxicogenomic analysis of B3C6F1 mouse livers following three week exposures to non-carcinogenic (0, 1, 2 mg/kg bw) or carcinogenic (4 and 8 mg/kg bw) doses of furan. We saw enrichment for pathways responsible for cytotoxicity: stress-activated protein kinase (SAPK) and death receptor (DR5 and TNF-alpha) signaling, and proliferation: extracellular signal-regulated kinases (ERKs) and TNF-alpha. We also noted the involvement of NF-kappaB and c-Jun in response to furan, which are genes that are known to be required for liver regeneration. Furan metabolism by CYP2E1 produces cis-2-butene-1,4-dial (BDA), which is required for ensuing cytotoxicity and oxidative stress. NRF2 is a master regulator of gene expression during oxidative stress and we suggest that chronic NFR2 activity and chronic inflammation may represent critical transition events between the adaptive (regeneration) and adverse (cancer) outcomes. Another objective of this study was to demonstrate the applicability of toxicogenomics data in quantitative risk assessment. We modeled benchmark doses for our transcriptional data and previously published cancer data, and observed consistency between the two. Margin of exposure values for both transcriptional and cancer endpoints were also similar. In conclusion, using furan as a case study we have demonstrated the value of toxicogenomics data in elucidating dose-dependent MOA transitions and in quantitative risk assessment. - Highlights: Global gene expression changes in furan-exposed mouse livers were analyzed. A molecular mode of action for furan-induced hepatocarcinogenesis is proposed. Key pathways include NRF2, SAPK, ERK and death receptor signaling. Important roles for TNF-alpha, c-Jun, and NF-?B in

  8. Moisture Flux Convergence in Regional and Global Climate Models: Implications for Droughts in the Southwestern United States Under Climate Change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gao, Yanhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Salathe, E.; Dominguez, Francina; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-05-10

    The water cycle of the southwestern United States (SW) is dominated by winter storms that maintain a positive annual net precipitation. Analysis of the control and future climate from four pairs of regional and global climate models (RCMs and GCMs) shows that the RCMs simulate a higher fraction of transient eddy moisture fluxes because the hydrodynamic instabilities associated with flow over complex terrain are better resolved. Under global warming, this enables the RCMs to capture the response of transient eddies to increased atmospheric stability that allows more moisture to converge on the windward side of the mountains by blocking. As a result, RCMs simulate enhanced transient eddy moisture convergence in the SW compared to GCMs, although both robustly simulate drying due to enhanced moisture divergence by the divergent mean flow in a warmer climate. This enhanced convergence leads to reduced susceptibility to hydrological change in the RCMs compared to GCMs.

  9. Replacement of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) at the DOE Gaseous Diffusion Plants: An assessment of global impacts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Socolof, M.L.; Saylor, R.E.; McCold, L.N.

    1994-12-31

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) operates two uranium enrichment plants. Together, the two plants maintain an inventory of approximately 14 million pounds of a chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), dichlorote-trafluoroethane (CFC-114) as a coolant. Annual operational CFC-114 losses total over 500,000 pounds. In February, 1992, President Bush announced that the US would terminate manufacture and importation of Class 1 ozone depleting substances (including CFC-114) by the end of 1995. To comply with this requirement DOE has considered introducing a replacement coolant by the end of 1995. Two perfluorocarbons (PFCs) - namely, octofluoro-cyclobutane and decafluorobutane - are presently the only known coolants that could meet safety requirements. They would not contribute to stratospheric ozone depletion but contribute to global warming. The paper describes an analysis of the potential global impacts of the proposed replacement of CFC-114 with a PFC. A problem with analyses of global warming and ozone depletion impacts is that even large sources of compounds that contribute to these effects contribute only very small fractions of the total effect. The authors take the position that significant effects to global warming and ozone depletion have already occurred, and that any additional contribution to these effects are contributions to cumulatively significant adverse effects on the environment. The paper describes four alternatives and the extent to which each would contribute to global warming and ozone depletion.

  10. Global Chemical Composition of Ambient Fine Particulate Matter for Exposure Assessment

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Philip, Sajeev; Martin, Randall V.; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Lo, Jason Wai-Ho; Wang, Yuxuan; Chen, Dan; Zhang, Lin; Kasibhatla, Prasad S.; Wang, Siwen; Zhang, Qiang; et al

    2014-10-24

    Epidemiologic and health impact studies are inhibited by the paucity of global, long-term measurements of the chemical composition of fine particulate matter. We inferred PM2.5 chemical composition at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for 2004–2008 by combining aerosol optical depth retrieved from the MODIS and MISR satellite instruments, with coincident profile and composition information from the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model. Evaluation of the satellite-model PM2.5 composition data set with North American in situ measurements indicated significant spatial agreement for secondary inorganic aerosol, particulate organic mass, black carbon, mineral dust, and sea salt. We found that global population-weighted PM2.5 concentrationsmore » were dominated by particulate organic mass (11.9 ± 7.3 μg/m3), secondary inorganic aerosol (11.1 ± 5.0 μg/m3), and mineral dust (11.1 ± 7.9 μg/m3). Secondary inorganic PM2.5 concentrations exceeded 30 μg/m3 over East China. Sensitivity simulations suggested that population-weighted ambient PM2.5 from biofuel burning (11 μg/m3) could be almost as large as from fossil fuel combustion sources (17 μg/m3). In conclusion, these estimates offer information about global population exposure to the chemical components and sources of PM2.5.« less

  11. Multi-century Changes to Global Climate and Carbon Cycle: Results from a Coupled Climate and Carbon Cycle Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Mirin, A; Wickett, M; Delire, C

    2005-02-17

    In this paper, we use a coupled climate and carbon cycle model to investigate the global climate and carbon cycle changes out to year 2300 that would occur if CO{sub 2} emissions from all the currently estimated fossil fuel resources were released to the atmosphere. By year 2300, the global climate warms by about 8 K and atmospheric CO{sub 2} reaches 1423 ppmv. The warming is higher than anticipated because the sensitivity to radiative forcing increases as the simulation progresses. In our simulation, the rate of emissions peak at over 30 PgC yr{sup -1} early in the 22nd century. Even at year 2300, nearly 50% of cumulative emissions remain in the atmosphere. In our simulations both soils and living biomass are net carbon sinks throughout the simulation. Despite having relatively low climate sensitivity and strong carbon uptake by the land biosphere, our model projections suggest severe long-term consequences for global climate if all the fossil-fuel carbon is ultimately released to the atmosphere.

  12. Modelling vegetation dynamics at global scale due to climate changes: Comparison of two approaches

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Belotelov, N.V.; Bogatyrev, B.G.; Lobanov, A.I.

    1996-12-31

    Climate changes will influence vegetation dynamics. One of the ways of forecasting these changes is the creation of mathematical models describing vegetation dynamics. Computer experiments can then be conducted under climate change scenarios. Two main approaches are used to create such models. The first approach is based on a bioclimatic dynamic approach. The second approach is based on modelling the main eco-physiological processes. The bioclimatic dynamic approach consists of hypotheses about vegetation types or biomes, and their interrelationships with climate. In the eco-physiological approach, a detailed description of the processes, such as production, mortality, plants migration and their competition is presented. A number of computer experiments has been conducted for several climatic scenario for Russia and the whole world. A qualitative comparison of the results with the results of an earlier bioclimatic model has been done.

  13. Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Kao, Shih -Chieh; Sale, Michael J.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Uria Martinez, Rocio; Kaiser, Dale Patrick; Wei, Yaxing; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

    2014-12-18

    Federal hydropower plants account for approximately half of installed US conventional hydropower capacity, and are an important part of the national renewable energy portfolio. Utilizing the strong linear relationship between the US Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff and annual hydropower generation, a runoff-based assessment approach is introduced in this study to project changes in annual and regional hydropower generation in multiple power marketing areas. Future climate scenarios are developed with a series of global and regional climate models, and the model output is bias-corrected to be consistent with observed data for the recent past. Using this approach, the median decrease inmore » annual generation at federal projects is projected to be less than –2 TWh, with an estimated ensemble uncertainty of ±9 TWh. Although these estimates are similar to the recently observed variability in annual hydropower generation, and may therefore appear to be manageable, significantly seasonal runoff changes are projected and it may pose significant challenges in water systems with higher limits on reservoir storage and operational flexibility. Lastly, future assessments will be improved by incorporating next-generation climate models, by closer examination of extreme events and longer-term change, and by addressing the interactions among hydropower and other water uses.« less

  14. Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kao, Shih -Chieh; Sale, Michael J.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Uria Martinez, Rocio; Kaiser, Dale Patrick; Wei, Yaxing; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

    2014-12-18

    Federal hydropower plants account for approximately half of installed US conventional hydropower capacity, and are an important part of the national renewable energy portfolio. Utilizing the strong linear relationship between the US Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff and annual hydropower generation, a runoff-based assessment approach is introduced in this study to project changes in annual and regional hydropower generation in multiple power marketing areas. Future climate scenarios are developed with a series of global and regional climate models, and the model output is bias-corrected to be consistent with observed data for the recent past. Using this approach, the median decrease in annual generation at federal projects is projected to be less than –2 TWh, with an estimated ensemble uncertainty of ±9 TWh. Although these estimates are similar to the recently observed variability in annual hydropower generation, and may therefore appear to be manageable, significantly seasonal runoff changes are projected and it may pose significant challenges in water systems with higher limits on reservoir storage and operational flexibility. Lastly, future assessments will be improved by incorporating next-generation climate models, by closer examination of extreme events and longer-term change, and by addressing the interactions among hydropower and other water uses.

  15. Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: an assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kao, Shih-Chieh; Sale, Michael J; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Uria Martinez, Rocio; Kaiser, Dale Patrick; Wei, Yaxing; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2015-01-01

    Federal hydropower plants account for approximately half of installed US conventional hydropower capacity, and are an important part of the national renewable energy portfolio. Utilizing the strong linear relationship between the US Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff and annual hydropower generation, a runoff-based assessment approach is introduced in this study to project changes in annual and regional hydropower generation in multiple power marketing areas. Future climate scenarios are developed with a series of global and regional climate models, and the model output is bias-corrected to be consistent with observed data for the recent past. Using this approach, the median decrease in annual generation at federal projects is projected to be less than 2 TWh, with an estimated ensemble uncertainty of 9 TWh. Although these estimates are similar to the recently observed variability in annual hydropower generation, and may therefore appear to be manageable, significantly seasonal runoff changes are projected and it may pose significant challenges in water systems with higher limits on reservoir storage and operational flexibility. Future assessments will be improved by incorporating next-generation climate models, by closer examination of extreme events and longer-term change, and by addressing the interactions among hydropower and other water uses.

  16. Possible changes for mudflow and avalanche activity in former Soviet Union due to the global warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Glazovskaya, T.G.; Sidorova, T.L.; Seliverstov, Y.G.

    1996-12-31

    Past research, as well as laboratory evidence have revealed a relationship between climate, mudflow, and avalanche activity. It is possible to predict changes in mudflow and avalanche activity by using climate models. In this study, the GFDL model was used which contained data on mean monthly air temperature, precipitation, and carbon dioxide concentrations.

  17. Global Chemical Composition of Ambient Fine Particulate Matter for Exposure Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Philip, Sajeev; Martin, Randall V.; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Lo, Jason Wai-Ho; Wang, Yuxuan; Chen, Dan; Zhang, Lin; Kasibhatla, Prasad S.; Wang, Siwen; Zhang, Qiang; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David G.; Bittman, Shabtai; Macdonald, Douglas J.

    2014-10-24

    Epidemiologic and health impact studies are inhibited by the paucity of global, long-term measurements of the chemical composition of fine particulate matter. We inferred PM2.5 chemical composition at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for 2004–2008 by combining aerosol optical depth retrieved from the MODIS and MISR satellite instruments, with coincident profile and composition information from the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model. Evaluation of the satellite-model PM2.5 composition data set with North American in situ measurements indicated significant spatial agreement for secondary inorganic aerosol, particulate organic mass, black carbon, mineral dust, and sea salt. We found that global population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations were dominated by particulate organic mass (11.9 ± 7.3 μg/m3), secondary inorganic aerosol (11.1 ± 5.0 μg/m3), and mineral dust (11.1 ± 7.9 μg/m3). Secondary inorganic PM2.5 concentrations exceeded 30 μg/m3 over East China. Sensitivity simulations suggested that population-weighted ambient PM2.5 from biofuel burning (11 μg/m3) could be almost as large as from fossil fuel combustion sources (17 μg/m3). In conclusion, these estimates offer information about global population exposure to the chemical components and sources of PM2.5.

  18. Measures used to tackle environmental problems related to global warming and climate change resulting from the use of coal

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoppe, J.A.

    1996-12-31

    Environmental issues continue to play a major role in strategic planning associated with the use of coal for power generation. Problems, such as Acid Rain resulting from SO{sub 2} emissions produced from the sulfur content of coal during coal combustion, have recently cornered the attention of policy makers and planners. More recently the carbon content of coal, which provides for most of the coals heating value, has been identified as the major contributor to the production of CO{sub 2} and other emissions associated with Global Warming and Climate Change. Total world carbon emissions resulting from the burning of fossil fuels were approximately 6 billion metric tons in 1990, of which 44% were from the consumption of oil, 39% from coal, and 17% from natural gas. Assuming no change in current regulations, carbon emissions are anticipated to grow by 1.5% per year, and are predicted to reach more than 8 billion tons by the year 2010. Most of this increase in carbon emissions is expected to come from developing countries in the Asian Pacific Region such as China where coal use dominates the power production industry and accounts for 71% of its total CO{sub 2} emissions. Asian Pacific coal demand is expected to double over the next 15 years accounting for a 46% increase in total primary energy demand, and China currently produces approximately 11% of the world`s global greenhouse gas emissions which is expected to grow to 15% by the year 2010.

  19. Life Cycle Assessment of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007: Ethanol - Global Warming Potential and Environmental Emissions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Heath, G. A.; Hsu, D. D.; Inman, D.; Aden, A.; Mann, M. K.

    2009-07-01

    The objective of this study is to use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate the global warming potential (GWP), water use, and net energy value (NEV) associated with the EISA-mandated 16 bgy cellulosic biofuels target, which is assumed in this study to be met by cellulosic-based ethanol, and the EISA-mandated 15 bgy conventional corn ethanol target. Specifically, this study compares, on a per-kilometer-driven basis, the GWP, water use, and NEV for the year 2022 for several biomass feedstocks.

  20. Numerical evaluation of mechanisms driving Early Jurassic changes in global carbon cycling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beerling, D.J.; Brentnall, S.J.

    2007-03-15

    The Early Jurassic (early Toarcian, ca. 183 Ma) carbon cycle perturbation is characterized by aabout -5 parts per thousand {delta} {sup 13}C excursion in the exogenic carbon reservoirs, a 1000 ppm rise in atmospheric CO{sub 2}, and a 6-7 degrees warming. Two proposed explanations for this presumed global carbon cycle perturbation are the liberation of massive amounts of isotopically light CH4 from (1) Gondwanan coals by heating during the intrusive eruption of the Karoo-Ferrar large igneous province (LIP) or (2) the thermal dissociation of gas hydrates. Carbon cycle modeling indicates that the release of CH4 from Gondwanan coals synchronous with the eruption of the Karoo-Ferrar LIP fails to reproduce the magnitude or timing of the CO{sub 2} and {delta} {sup 13}C excursions. However, sensitivity analyses constrained by a marine cyclostratigraphically dated {delta}{sup 13}C record indicate that both features of geologic record can be explained with the huge input of about 15,340-24,750 Gt C over about 220 k.y., a result possibly pointing to the involvement of hydrothermal vent complexes in the Karoo Basin. The simulated release of > 6000 Gt C from gas hydrates also reproduces aspects of the early Toarcian rock record, but the large mass involved raises fundamental questions about its formation, storage, and release.

  1. Researchers Develop Multi-Sensing Probe To Assess Bed Sores | GE Global

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Research Scientists Develop Multi-sensing Handheld Probe to Assess and Prevent Pressure Ulcer Formation During Hospital Stays Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window) Share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Click to share (Opens in new window) Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window) GE Scientists Develop Multi-sensing Handheld Probe to Assess and Prevent Pressure Ulcer Formation During Hospital Stays Probe assesses ulcer

  2. Environmental screening tools for assessment of infrastructure plans based on biodiversity preservation and global warming (PEIT, Spain)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Garcia-Montero, Luis G.

    2010-04-15

    Most Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) research has been concerned with SEA as a procedure, and there have been relatively few developments and tests of analytical methodologies. The first stage of the SEA is the 'screening', which is the process whereby a decision is taken on whether or not SEA is required for a particular programme or plan. The effectiveness of screening and SEA procedures will depend on how well the assessment fits into the planning from the early stages of the decision-making process. However, it is difficult to prepare the environmental screening for an infrastructure plan involving a whole country. To be useful, such methodologies must be fast and simple. We have developed two screening tools which would make it possible to estimate promptly the overall impact an infrastructure plan might have on biodiversity and global warming for a whole country, in order to generate planning alternatives, and to determine whether or not SEA is required for a particular infrastructure plan.

  3. National Institute for Global Environmental Change. Final Technical Report 1990-2007

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Athanasios Toulopoulos

    2007-11-01

    Research conducted by the six NIGEC Regional Centers during recent years is reported. An overview of the NIGEC program from its beginnings provides a description and evaluation of the program's vision, strategy and major accomplishments. The program's purpose was to support academic research on environmental change in regions of the country that had historically received relatively little federal funding. The overall vision of NIGEC may be stated as the performance of academic research on the regional interactions between ecosystems and climate. NIGEC's research presents important evidence on the impacts of climate variability and change, and in some cases adaptability, for a broad range of both managed and unmanaged ecosystems, and has thereby documented significant regional issues on the environmental responses to climate change. NIGEC's research has demonstrated large regional differences in the atmospheric carbon exchange budgets of croplands and forests, that there are significant variations of this exchange on diurnal, synoptic, seasonal and interannual time scales due to atmospheric variability (including temperature, precipitation and cloudiness), and that management practices and past history have predominant effects in grasslands and croplands. It is the mid-latitude forests, however, that have received more attention in NIGEC than any other specific ecosystem, and NIGEC's initiation of and participation in the AmeriFlux program, network of carbon flux measurement sites in North American old-growth forests, is generally considered to be its most significant single accomplishment. By including appendices with complete listings of NIGEC publications, principal investigators and participating institutions, this report may also serve as a useful comprehensive documentation of NIGEC.

  4. Replacement of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) at the DOE gaseous diffusion plants: An assessment of global impacts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Socolof, M.L.; Saylor, R.E.; McCold, L.N.

    1994-06-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) formerly operated two gaseous diffusion plants (GDPs) for enriching uranium and maintained a third shutdown GDP. These plants maintain a large inventory of dichlorotetrafluorethane (CFC-114), a cholorofluorocarbon (CFC), as a coolant. The paper evaluates the global impacts of four alternatives to modify GDP coolant system operations for a three-year period beginning in 1996. Interim modification of GDP coolant system operations has the potential to reduce stratospheric ozone depletion from GDP coolant releases while a permanent solution is studied.

  5. Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy: Meeting US global climate change action plan commitments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anderson, A.F.

    1994-12-31

    The subject describes how the US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy will help meet the US goal of returning US greenhouse gas emissions to their 1990 levels by the year 2000. On October 19, 1993, President Clinton and Vice President Gore announced the publication of the Climate Change Action Plan. The DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy has a major role in implementing many of the initiatives contained in the Plan. The paper will outline the initiatives current programs, and demonstrate how once implemented, the strategy will help to stem US greenhouse gas emissions. The paper will also discuss how DOE in implementing it`s Climate Change Action Plan strategy, will work with the EPA to achieve a cost-effective strategy that will stem greenhouse gas emissions through public/private partnerships. Although the focus of this paper will be the connection between current programs and Clinton Administration`s year 2000 goal, it will also discuss a longer-term vision for reducing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases beyond the year 2000.

  6. Enterprise Assessments Targeted Assessment of the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant High-Level Waste Facility Radioactive Liquid Waste Disposal System Safety Basis Change Package … May 2016

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Assessment of the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant High-Level Waste Facility Radioactive Liquid Waste Disposal System Safety Basis Change Package May 2016 Office of Nuclear Safety and Environmental Assessments Office of Environment, Safety and Health Assessments Office of Enterprise Assessments U.S. Department of Energy i Table of Contents Acronyms

  7. Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tavoni, Massimo; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Aboumahboub, Tino; Bowen, Alex; Calvin, Katherine V.; Campiglio, Emanuele; Kober, Tom; Jewell, Jessica; Luderer, Gunnar; Marangoni, Giacomo; McCollum, David; van Sluisveld, Mariesse; Zimmer, Anne; van der Zwaan, Bob

    2014-12-15

    Integrated assessment models can help in quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. This paper reviews scenario results from model intercomparison projects to explore different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to the 2°C target. We provide key information for all the major economies, such as the year of emission peaking, regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. We highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.

  8. Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schmitz, Christoph; van Meijl, Hans; Kyle, G. Page; Nelson, Gerald C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gurgel, Angelo; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; von Lampe, Martin; Wise, Marshall A.; Blanc, Elodie; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Valin, Hugo

    2014-01-01

    Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 1025% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.

  9. Global Assessment of Hydrogen Technologies - Task 1 Report Technology Evaluation of Hydrogen Light Duty Vehicles

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fouad, Fouad H.; Peters, Robert W.; Sisiopiku, Virginia P.; Sullivan Andrew J.; Rousseau, Aymeric

    2007-12-01

    This task analyzes the candidate hydrogen-fueled vehicles for near-term use in the Southeastern U.S. The purpose of this work is to assess their potential in terms of efficiency and performance. This report compares conventional, hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) with gasoline and hydrogen-fueled internal combustion engines (ICEs) as well as fuel cell and fuel cell hybrids from a technology as well as fuel economy point of view. All the vehicles have been simulated using the Powertrain System Analysis Toolkit (PSAT). First, some background information is provided on recent American automotive market trends and consequences. Moreover, available options are presented for introducing cleaner and more economical vehicles in the market in the future. In this study, analysis of various candidate hydrogen-fueled vehicles is performed using PSAT and, thus, a brief description of PSAT features and capabilities are provided. Detailed information on the simulation analysis performed is also offered, including methodology assumptions, fuel economic results, and conclusions from the findings.

  10. A valuation of possible glacio-hydrological characteristics changes under global warming for Pamiro-Alay glaciation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ananicheva, M.D.

    1996-12-31

    Scenarios of global climate change for doubled carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is transformed into isoline maps for glaciated mountain region. Model data of monthly air temperature and precipitation are recalculated to values of annual solid precipitation and mean summer air temperature reduced to the level of 4,000 meters a.s.l. with the help of contemporary vertical gradients of air temperature and solid precipitation. The calculation algorithm is based on new techniques which analyze relationships between the spatial and altitudinal variability of meteorological parameters and their influence on snow and ice extent. Results form the basis for the calculation of the primary glaciologic and hydrologic characteristics: accumulation, ablation, melt runoff. New altitudes of main glaciological levels are calculated together with corresponding ablation and accumulation in the condition of doubled CO{sub 2}. These data are then used to produce a new spatial distribution of the input variables which can be used for improved melt water and heat resources calculation. The time period over which the model is run to obtain spatial distribution of pointed characteristics is the middle of 21 century, the situation of doubled CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere. Model output is in the form of isoline maps as well as digital data and covers the territory of Pamiro-Alay mountains and adjacent areas.

  11. A Cross-model Comparison of Global Long-term Technology Diffusion under a 2?C Climate Change Control Target

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    van der Zwaan, Bob; Rosler, Hilke; Kober, Tom; Aboumahboub, Tino; Calvin, Katherine V.; Gernaat, David; Marangoni, Giacomo; McCollum, David

    2013-11-01

    We investigate the long-term global energy technology diffusion patterns required to reach a stringent climate change target with a maximum average atmospheric temperature increase of 2C. If the anthropogenic temperature increase is to be limited to 2C, total CO2 emissions have to be reduced massively, so as to reach substantial negative values during the second half of the century. Particularly power sector CO2 emissions should become negative from around 2050 onwards according to most models used for this analysis in order to compensate for GHG emissions in other sectors where abatement is more costly. The annual additional capacity deployment intensity (expressed in GW/yr) for solar and wind energy until 2030 needs to be around that recently observed for coal-based power plants, and will have to be several times higher in the period 20302050. Relatively high agreement exists across models in terms of the aggregated low-carbon energy system cost requirements on the supply side until 2050, which amount to about 50 trillion US$.

  12. International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation Assessments: Conference summary and statement

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-08-01

    The International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation Assessments was held in St. Petersburg, Russian Federation, from May 22--25, 1995. Sponsored by the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, the US Country Studies Program, and the directorate General for International Cooperation of the Netherlands Government, it was the first international conference focusing exclusively on adaptation to climate change. More than 100 people from 29 countries on five continents participated. The conference primarily addressed measures to anticipate the potential effects of climate change to minimize negative effects and take advantage of any positive effects. The focus was on what governments, institutions, and individuals can do to prepare for climate change. The conference dealt with two major topics: What adaptation options are most effective and efficient in anticipating climate change and what methods should be used to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of adaptation options. Brief summaries are given from the following sessions on agriculture; Water resources; coastal resources; ecosystems and forests; fisheries; human settlements; water and agriculture; and the panel session on international adaptation in national communications and other development plans and needs for technical assistance.

  13. National technology needs assessment for the preparation and implementation of climate change action plans

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Berkel, C.W.M. van; Blonk, T.J.; Westra, C.A.

    1996-12-31

    In the United National Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) it is recognised that developed countries have a responsibility in assisting developing countries and countries in economic transition in building a national capacity for the development, acquisition and transfer of Climate-related Technologies (CTs). Such assistance is most likely to be successful once it is tailored to the results of a sound assessment of the country`s development needs and once the results of this assessment have been endorsed by the most important stakeholders in the country. Recent insight in the opportunities and constraints for National (technology) Needs Assessments (NNAs) as planning tool for both capacity building and technology transfer regarding Environmentally Sound Technologies (ESTs) is applied here to propose a participatory Climate Change Action Planning (CCAP) process. This participatory planning process is thought to serve the dual objective of defining a national Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) while at the same time contributing to the creation of a broad supportive basis for its acceptance and implementation among stakeholders in the developing country.

  14. Global decarbonization strategies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Messner, S.

    1996-12-31

    The presentation covers a brief summary of the research activities of the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies Project (ECS) at IIASA. The overall research focuses on long-term global energy development and emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). The ultimate goal is to analyze strategies that achieve decarbonization of global energy systems during the next century. The specific activities range from mitigation of GHG emissions to an integrated assessment of climate change. One focal point is the GHG mitigation technology inventory CO{sub 2}DB, which presently covers approximately 1,400 technologies related to energy and the greenhouse effect. Another integral part is the development of global energy and emissions scenarios, an effort involving a number of formal models to assess the implications. A large number of global scenarios for the next century has been developed, that could be grouped into three families. All of them include energy efficiency improvements and some degree of decarbonization in the world. They are based on different economic and technological development trajectories, and their emissions range from very high to a stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions. The presentation will outline the salient characteristics of the three scenario families and provide some regional implications of these alternative futures.

  15. One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voisin, Nathalie; Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Tesfa, Teklu K.; Li, Hongyi; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-11-18

    An integrated model is being developed to advance our understanding of the interactions between human activities, terrestrial system and water cycle, and how system interactions will be affected by a changing climate at the regional scale. As a first step towards that goal, a global integrated assessment model including a waterdemand model is coupled offline with a land surface hydrology routing water resources management model. A spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to project the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and subbasin representation. The model demonstrated reasonable ability to represent the historical flow regulation and water supply over the Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi and Ohio). Implications for the future flow regulation, water supply and supply deficit are investigated using a climate change projection with the B1 emission scenario which affects both natural flow and water demand. Over the Midwest, changes in flow regulation are mostly driven by the change in natural flow due to the limited storage capacity over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi river basins. The changes in flow and demand have a combined effect on the Missouri Summer regulated flow. The supply deficit tends to be driven by the change in flow over the region. Spatial analysis demonstrates the relationship between the supply deficit and the change in demand over urban areas not along a main river or with limited storage, and over areas upstream of groundwater dependent fields with therefore overestimated demand.

  16. Basin scale assessment of gas hydrate dissociation in response to climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reagan, M.; Moridis, G.; Elliott, S.; Maltrud, M.; Cameron-Smith, P.

    2011-07-01

    Paleooceanographic evidence has been used to postulate that methane from oceanic hydrates may have had a significant role in regulating climate. However, the behavior of contemporary oceanic methane hydrate deposits subjected to rapid temperature changes, like those now occurring in the arctic and those predicted under future climate change scenarios, has only recently been investigated. Field investigations have discovered substantial methane gas plumes exiting the seafloor along the Arctic Ocean margin, and the plumes appear at depths corresponding to the upper limit of a receding gas hydrate stability zone. It has been suggested that these plumes may be the first visible signs of the dissociation of shallow hydrate deposits due to ongoing climate change in the arctic. We simulate the release of methane from oceanic deposits, including the effects of fully-coupled heat transfer, fluid flow, hydrate dissociation, and other thermodynamic processes, for systems representative of segments of the Arctic Ocean margins. The modeling encompasses a range of shallow hydrate deposits from the landward limit of the hydrate stability zone down to water depths beyond the expected range of century-scale temperature changes. We impose temperature changes corresponding to predicted rates of climate change-related ocean warming and examine the possibility of hydrate dissociation and the release of methane. The assessment is performed at local-, regional-, and basin-scales. The simulation results are consistent with the hypothesis that dissociating shallow hydrates alone can result in significant methane fluxes at the seafloor. However, the methane release is likely to be confined to a narrow region of high dissociation susceptibility, defined by depth and temperature, and that any release will be continuous and controlled, rather than explosive. This modeling also establishes the first realistic bounds for methane release along the arctic continental shelf for potential hydrate

  17. US country studies program: Support for climate change studies, national plans, and technology assessments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes the objectives of the next phase of the U.S. Country Studies Program which was launched in support of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The next phases of this program aim to: assist countries in preparing Climate Change Action plans; support technology assessments and development of technology initiatives; enhance exchange of information and expertise in support of FCCC. The program offers support for these processes in the form of handbooks which have been published to aid in preparing action plans, and to provide information on methane, forestry, and energy technologies. In addition an array of training workshops have been and are scheduled to offer hands on instruction to participants, expert advice is available from trained personnel, and modeling tools are available to aid in development of action plans.

  18. Final Report for ''SOURCES AND SINKS OF CARBON FROM LAND-USE CHANGE AND MANAGEMENT: A GLOBAL SYNTHESIS'' Project Period September 15, 2001--September 14, 2003

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houghton, R.A.

    2003-12-12

    Land management and land-use change can either release carbon (as CO{sub 2}) to the atmosphere, for example when forests are converted to agricultural lands, or withdraw carbon from the atmosphere as forests grow on cleared lands or as management practices sequester carbon in soil. The purpose of this work was to calculate the annual sources and sinks of carbon from changes in land use and management, globally and for nine world regions, over the period 1850 to 2000. The approach had three components. First, rates of land-use change were reconstructed from historical information on the areas of croplands, pastures, forests, and other lands and from data on wood harvests. In most regions, land-use change included the conversion of natural ecosystems to cultivated lands and pastures, including shifting cultivation, harvest of wood (for timber and fuel), and the establishment of tree plantations. In the U.S., woody encroachment and woodland thickening as a result of fire suppression were also included. Second, the amount of carbon per hectare in vegetation and soils and changes in that carbon as a result of land-use change were determined from data obtained in the ecological and forestry literature. These data on land-use change and carbon stocks were then used in a bookkeeping model (third component) to calculate regional and global changes in terrestrial carbon. The results indicate that for the period 1850-2000 the net flux of carbon from changes in land use was 156 PgC. For comparison, emissions of carbon from combustion of fossil fuels were approximately 280 PgC during the same interval. Annual emissions from land-use change exceeded emissions from fossil fuels before about 1920. Somewhat more that half (60%) of the long-term flux was from the tropics. Average annual fluxes during the 1980s and 1990s were 2.0 and 2.2 ({+-}0.8) PgC yr{sup -1} (30-40% of fossil fuel emissions), respectively. In these decades, the global sources of carbon were almost entirely from

  19. An open letter to the 2008 presidential candidates: get the facts right on what's responsible for global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Linden, Henry R.

    2008-07-15

    The two remaining presidential candidates have adopted policies for reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that address factors that are mistakenly held responsible as the primary cause of global warming. Here's what they need to keep in mind in order to craft genuinely efficacious policies. (author)

  20. Assessing Changes in the Reliability of the U.S. Electric Power System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Larsen, Peter H.; LaCommare, Kristina H.; Eto, Joseph H.; Sweeney, James L.

    2015-08-01

    Over the past 15 years, the most well-publicized efforts to assess trends in U.S. electric power system reliability have focused only on a subset of all power interruption events (see, for example, Amin 2008 and Campbell 2012)—namely, only the very largest events, which trigger immediate emergency reporting to federal agencies and industry regulators. Anecdotally, these events are thought by many to represent no more than 10% of the power interruptions experienced annually by electricity consumers. Moreover, a review of these emergency reports has identified shortcomings in relying on these data as reliable sources for assessing trends, even with the reliability events they report (Fisher et al. 2012). Recent work has begun to address these limitations by examining trends in reliability data collected annually by electricity distribution companies (Eto et al. 2012). In principle, all power interruptions experienced by electricity customers, regardless of size, are recorded by the distribution utility. Moreover, distribution utilities have a long history of recording this information, often in response to mandates from state public utility commissions (Eto et al. 2006). Thus, studies that rely on reliability data collected by distribution utilities can, in principle, provide a more complete basis upon which to assess trends or changes in reliability over time.

  1. Identification and preliminary characterization of global water resource issues which may be affected by CO/sub 2/-induced climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Callaway, J.M.; Cohen, M.L.; Currie, J.W.

    1984-04-01

    The objectives were to: (1) identify, characterize, and define existing or projected regional and global water resource management issues which may be affected by CO/sub 2/-induced climate changes; and (2) develop research priorities for acquiring additional information about the potential effects of a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change on the availability and allocation of freshwater supplies. The research was broken into four work elements: (1) identification of water resource management issues on a global and regional basis; (2) identification of a subset of generic CO/sub 2/-related water resource management issues believed to have the highest probability of being affected, beneficially or adversely, by a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change; (3) selection of specific sites for examining the potential effect of a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change on these issues; and (4) conducting detailed case studies at these sites, the results from which will be used to identify future research and data needs in the area of water resources. This report summarizes the research related to the first three work elements. 6 figures, 9 tables.

  2. Final technical report. Can microbial functional traits predict the response and resilience of decomposition to global change?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Allison, Steven D.

    2015-09-24

    The role of specific micro-organisms in the carbon cycle, and their responses to environmental change, are unknown in most ecosystems. This knowledge gap limits scientists’ ability to predict how important ecosystem processes, like soil carbon storage and loss, will change with climate and other environmental factors. The investigators addressed this knowledge gap by transplanting microbial communities from different environments into new environments and measuring the response of community composition and carbon cycling over time. Using state-of-the-art sequencing techniques, computational tools, and nanotechnology, the investigators showed that microbial communities on decomposing plant material shift dramatically with natural and experimentally-imposed drought. Microbial communities also shifted in response to added nitrogen, but the effects were smaller. These changes had implications for carbon cycling, with lower rates of carbon loss under drought conditions, and changes in the efficiency of decomposition with nitrogen addition. Even when transplanted into the same conditions, microbial communities from different environments remained distinct in composition and functioning for up to one year. Changes in functioning were related to differences in enzyme gene content across different microbial groups. Computational approaches developed for this project allowed the conclusions to be tested more broadly in other ecosystems, and new computer models will facilitate the prediction of microbial traits and functioning across environments. The data and models resulting from this project benefit the public by improving the ability to predict how microbial communities and carbon cycling functions respond to climate change, nutrient enrichment, and other large-scale environmental changes.

  3. Sensitivity of global-scale climate change attribution results to inclusion of fossil fuel black carbon aerosol - article no. L14701

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, G.S.; Jones, A.; Roberts, D.L.; Stott, P.A.; Williams, K.D.

    2005-07-16

    It is likely that greenhouse gas emissions caused most of the global mean warming observed during the 20th century, and that sulphate aerosols counteracted this warming to some extent, by reflecting solar radiation to space and thereby cooling the planet. However, the importance of another aerosol, namely black carbon, could be underestimated. Here we include fossil fuel black carbon aerosol in a detection and attribution analysis with greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosols. We find that most of the warming of the 20th Century is attributable to changes in greenhouse gases offset by net aerosol cooling. However the pattern of temperature change due to black carbon is currently indistinguishable from the sulphate aerosol pattern of temperature change. The attribution of temperature change due to greenhouse gases is not sensitive to the inclusion of black carbon. We can be confident about the overall attribution of total aerosols, but less so about the contributions of black carbon emissions to 20th century climate change. This work presents no evidence that black carbon aerosol forcing outweighed the cooling due to sulphate aerosol.

  4. Onboard Hydrogen/Helium Sensors in Support of the Global Technical Regulation: An Assessment of Performance in Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Crash Tests

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Onboard Hydrogen/Helium Sensors in Support of the Global Technical Regulation: An Assessment of Performance in Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Crash Tests Matthew B. Post, Robert Burgess, Carl Rivkin, and William Buttner National Renewable Energy Laboratory Kathleen O'Malley U.S. Department of Energy and Sentech Antonio Ruiz U.S. Department of Energy Technical Report NREL/TP-5600-56177 September 2012 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency &

  5. Five-years of microenvironment data along an urban-rural transect; temperature and CO2 concentrations in urban area at levels expected globally with climate change.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    George, Kate; Ziska, Lewis H; Bunce, James A; Quebedeaux, Bruno

    2007-11-01

    The heat island effect and the high use of fossil fuels in large city centers is well documented, but by how much fossil fuel consumption is elevating atmospheric CO2 concentrations and whether elevations in both atmospheric CO2 and air temperature are consistent from year to year are less well known. Our aim was to record atmospheric CO2 concentrations, air temperature and other environmental variables in an urban area and compare it to suburban and rural sites to see if urban sites are experiencing climates expected globally in the future with climate change. A transect was established from Baltimore city center (Urban site), to the outer suburbs of Baltimore (suburban site) and out to an organic farm (rural site). At each site a weather station was set-up to monitor environmental variables annually for five years. Atmospheric CO2 was significantly increased on average by 66 ppm from the rural to the urban site over the five years of the study. Air temperature was significantly higher at the urban site (14.8 oC) compared to the suburban (13.6 oC) and rural (12.7 oC) sites. Relative humidity was not different between sites but vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was significantly higher at the urban site compared to the suburban and rural sites. During wet years relative humidity was significantly increased and VPD significantly reduced. Increased nitrogen deposition at the rural site (2.1 % compared to 1.8 and 1.2 % at the suburban and urban sites) was small enough not to affect soil nitrogen content. Dense urban areas with large populations and high vehicular traffic have significantly different microclimates compared to outlying suburban and rural areas. The increases in atmospheric CO2 and air temperature are similar to changes predicted in the short term with global climate change, therefore providing an environment suitable for studying future effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.

  6. Measurements of carbonyl sulfide in automotive emissions and an assessment of its importance to the global sulfur cycle

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fried, A.; Henry, B. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Ragazzi, R.A.; Merrick, M.; Stokes, J.; Pyzdrowski, T. [Colorado Dept. of Health, Denver, CO (United States); Sams, R. [National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD (United States)

    1992-09-20

    Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) is thought to be the major precursor to the background stratospheric aerosol sulfate layer during nonvolcanic time periods. Long-term perturbations to this layer from increased OCS emissions could significantly influence the Earth`s radiation budget, climate, and ozone levels. The present study was carried out in an effort to determine mass emission rates of OCS from automobiles, a potentially important global source of this gas. Studies were carried out on a variety of gasoline vehicles including those without catalytic converters, vehicles with older oxidation catalysts, and vehicles employing newer three-way catalysts. Preliminary measurements were also carried out on four diesel fuel cars and one medium-duty diesel fuel truck. Measurements of OCS were acquired by tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy, and in most cases, measurements of CO were also acquired. Gasoline vehicles, which included some of the lowest and some of the highest CO emitters on the road today, revealed very high correlation between OCS and CO mass emission rates. The OCS-CO linear regression resulted in a slope of (5.8 {+-} 1.6) x 10{sup {minus}6} (gOCS/gCO) and a correlation coefficient of 0.92. The preliminary diesel fuel measurements resulted in a corresponding slope 34.5 times larger. On the basis of these results the authors calculated a global OCS source strength for gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles of 0.0008 to 0.008 Tg yr{sup {minus}1}. The upper limit is a factor of 100 to 600 times less important than the sum of all OCS sources. In contrast to the global scale, automotive emissions of OCS may be important on a local scale, particularly when attempting to measure background concentration and associated small secular trends. These OCS-CO ratios have been shown to be very useful in helping to delineate automotive sources from other sources. 32 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs.

  7. Resources for global risk assessment: The International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wullenweber, Andrea Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database ( (www.tera.org/iter)) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at (http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm), and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET ( (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/)). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  8. A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Report for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory: May 23, 2014 -- June 5, 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vogel, J.; O'Grady, M.; Renfrow, S.

    2015-09-03

    The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in Golden, Colorado, focuses on renewable energy and energy efficiency research. Its portfolio includes advancing renewable energy technologies that can help meet the nation's energy and environmental goals. NREL seeks to better understand the potential effects of climate change on the laboratory--and therefore on its mission--to ensure its ongoing success. Planning today for a changing climate can reduce NREL's risks and improve its resiliency to climate-related vulnerabilities. This report presents a vulnerability assessment for NREL. The assessment was conducted in fall 2014 to identify NREL's climate change vulnerabilities and the aspects of NREL's mission or operations that may be affected by a changing climate.

  9. Ischemia in tumors induces early and sustained phosphorylation changes in stress kinase pathways but does not affect global protein levels

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mertins, Philipp; Yang, Feng; Liu, Tao; Mani, DR; Petyuk, Vladislav A.; Gillette, Michael; Clauser, Karl; Qiao, Jana; Gritsenko, Marina A.; Moore, Ronald J.; Levine, Douglas; Townsend, Reid; Erdmann-Gilmore, Petra; Snider, Jacqueline E.; Davies, Sherri; Ruggles, Kelly; Fenyo, David; Kitchens, R. T.; Li, Shunqiang; Olvera, Narcisco; Dao, Fanny; Rodriguez, Henry; Chan, Daniel W.; Liebler, Daniel; White, Forest; Rodland, Karin D.; Mills, Gordon; Smith, Richard D.; Paulovich, Amanda G.; Ellis, Matthew; Carr, Steven A.

    2014-07-01

    Advances in quantitative mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics have sparked efforts to characterize the proteomes of tumor samples to provide complementary and unique information inaccessible by genomics. Tumor samples are usually not accrued with proteomic characterization in mind, raising concerns regarding effects of undocumented sample ischemia on protein abundance and phosphosite stoichiometry. Here we report the effects of cold ischemia time on clinical ovarian cancer samples and patient-derived basal and luminal breast cancer xenografts. Tumor tissues were excised and collected prior to vascular ligation, subjected to accurately defined ischemia times up to 60 min, and analyzed by quantitative proteomics and phosphoproteomics using isobaric tags and high-performance, multidimensional LC-MS/MS. No significant changes were detected at the protein level in each tumor type after 60 minutes of ischemia, and the majority of the >25,000 phosphosites detected were also stable. However, large, reproducible increases and decreases in protein phosphorylation at specific sites were observed in up to 24% of the phosphoproteome starting as early as 5 minutes post-excision. Early and sustained activation of stress response, transcriptional regulation and cell death pathways were observed in common across tumor types. Tissue-specific changes in phosphosite stability were also observed suggesting idiosyncratic effects of ischemia in particular lineages. Our study provides insights into the information that may be obtained by proteomic characterization of tumor samples after undocumented periods of ischemia, and suggests caution especially in interpreting activation of stress pathways in such samples as they may reflect sample handling rather than tumor physiology.

  10. Global warming, global research, and global governing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Preining, O.

    1997-12-31

    The anticipated dangers of Global Warming can be mitigated by reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, especially CO{sub 2}. To reach acceptable, constant levels within the next couple of centuries it might be necessary to accept stabilization levels higher than present ones, The annual CO{sub 2} emissions must be reduced far below today`s values. This is a very important result of the models discussed in the 1995 IPCC report. However, any even very modest scenario for the future must take into account a substantial increase in the world population which might double during the 21st century, There is a considerable emission reduction potential of the industrialized world due to efficiency increase, However, the demand for energy services by the growing world population will, inspite of the availability of alternative energy resources, possibly lead to a net increase in fossil fuel consumption. If the climate models are right, and the science community believes they are, we will experience a global warming of the order of a couple of degrees over the next century; we have to live with it. To be prepared for the future it is essential for us to use new research techniques embracing not only the familiar fields of hard sciences but also social, educational, ethical and economic aspects, We must find a way to build up the essential intellectual capacities needed to deal with these kinds of general problems within all nations and all societies. But this is not Although, we also have to find the necessary dynamical and highly flexible structures for a global governing using tools such as the environmental regime. The first step was the Framework Convention On Climate Change, UN 1992; for resolution of questions regarding implementations the Conference of the Parties was established.

  11. Life cycle inventory analysis of regenerative thermal oxidation of air emissions from oriented strand board facilities in Minnesota - a perspective of global climate change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nicholson, W.J.

    1997-12-31

    Life cycle inventory analysis has been applied to the prospective operation of regenerative thermal oxidation (RTO) technology at oriented strand board plants at Bemidji (Line 1) and Cook, Minnesota. The net system destruction of VOC`s and carbon monoxide, and at Cook a small quantity of particulate, has a very high environmental price in terms of energy and water use, global warming potential, sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions, solids discharged to water, and solid waste deposited in landfills. The benefit of VOC destruction is identified as minor in terms of ground level ozone at best and possibly slightly detrimental. Recognition of environmental tradeoffs associated with proposed system changes is critical to sound decision-making. There are more conventional ways to address carbon monoxide emissions than combustion in RTO`s. In an environment in which global warming is a concern, fuel supplemental combustion for environmental control does not appear warranted. Consideration of non-combustion approaches to address air emission issues at the two operations is recommended. 1 ref., 5 tabs.

  12. A 24 hr global campaign to assess precision timing of the millisecond pulsar J1713+0747

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dolch, T.; Lam, M. T.; Cordes, J.; Chatterjee, S.; Bassa, C.; Hessels, J. W. T.; Janssen, G.; Kondratiev, V.; Bhattacharyya, B.; Jordan, C.; Keith, M.; Champion, D. J.; Karuppusamy, R.; Kramer, M.; Lazarus, P.; Cognard, I.; Demorest, P. B.; Jenet, F. A.; Jones, G.; and others

    2014-10-10

    The radio millisecond pulsar J1713+0747 is regarded as one of the highest-precision clocks in the sky and is regularly timed for the purpose of detecting gravitational waves. The International Pulsar Timing Array Collaboration undertook a 24 hr global observation of PSR J1713+0747 in an effort to better quantify sources of timing noise in this pulsar, particularly on intermediate (1-24 hr) timescales. We observed the pulsar continuously over 24 hr with the Arecibo, Effelsberg, GMRT, Green Bank, LOFAR, Lovell, Nançay, Parkes, and WSRT radio telescopes. The combined pulse times-of-arrival presented here provide an estimate of what sources of timing noise, excluding DM variations, would be present as compared to an idealized √N improvement in timing precision, where N is the number of pulses analyzed. In the case of this particular pulsar, we find that intrinsic pulse phase jitter dominates arrival time precision when the signal-to-noise ratio of single pulses exceeds unity, as measured using the eight telescopes that observed at L band/1.4 GHz. We present first results of specific phenomena probed on the unusually long timescale (for a single continuous observing session) of tens of hours, in particular interstellar scintillation, and discuss the degree to which scintillation and profile evolution affect precision timing. This paper presents the data set as a basis for future, deeper studies.

  13. Building | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Building We're creating infrastructure, refining materials and assembling technologies that accommodate our constantly changing world. Home > Impact > Building Global Research and GE Capital: Middle Market Collaboration In 2013, a partnering initiative between Global Research and GE Capital resulted in dozens of middle market companies... Read More » How Green Is Green? GE's Global Research Center's Ecoassessment Center of Excellence was created to study the impact of GE products and

  14. Wanted: Global Clean Energy Partners | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Super contributor 24 February, 2010 - 13:51 imported OpenEI Global climate change. Global sustainability. Global economic development. There's no doubt about it-if the...

  15. Military implications of global warming. Strategy research project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greene, P.E.

    1999-05-20

    The 1998 National Security Strategy repeatedly cites global environmental issues as key to the long-term security of the United States. Similarly, US environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current US Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate change. It discusses related economic factors and environmental concerns. It assesses current White House policy as it relates to the US military. It reviews the Department of Defense strategy for energy conservation and reduction of greenhouse gases. Finally, it offers recommendations and options for military involvement to reduce global warming. Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the US military. As the United States leadership in environmental matters encourages global stability, the US military will be able to focus more on readiness and on military training and operations.

  16. Global carbon budget 2014

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Peters, G. P.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Jones, S. D.; Sitch, S.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; et al

    2015-05-08

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissionsmore » from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ;, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates

  17. Global carbon budget 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Peters, G. P.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Jones, S. D.; Sitch, S.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Boden, T. A.; Bopp, L.; Bozec, Y.; Canadell, J. G.; Chini, L. P.; Chevallier, F.; Cosca, C. E.; Harris, I.; Hoppema, M.; Houghton, R. A.; House, J. I.; Jain, A. K.; Johannessen, T.; Kato, E.; Keeling, R. F.; Kitidis, V.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Koven, C.; Landa, C. S.; Landschützer, P.; Lenton, A.; Lima, I. D.; Marland, G.; Mathis, J. T.; Metzl, N.; Nojiri, Y.; Olsen, A.; Ono, T.; Peng, S.; Peters, W.; Pfeil, B.; Poulter, B.; Raupach, M. R.; Regnier, P.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Salisbury, J. E.; Schuster, U.; Schwinger, J.; Séférian, R.; Segschneider, J.; Steinhoff, T.; Stocker, B. D.; Sutton, A. J.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; van der Werf, G. R.; Viovy, N.; Wang, Y.-P.; Wanninkhof, R.; Wiltshire, A.; Zeng, N.

    2015-05-08

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from

  18. TECHNOLOGY IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODEL: THE POTENTIAL REGIONAL DEPLOYMENT OF CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CO2 STABILIZATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edmonds, James A.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Friedman, S. Julio; Wise, Marshall A.

    2007-11-19

    Technology is a critically important determinant of the cost of meeting any environmental objective. In this paper we examine the role of a particular technology, carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), in the stabilization of the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). While CCS is not presently deployed at scale, it has the potential to deploy extensively during the course of the 21st century if concentrations of atmospheric CO2 are to be stabilized. The existing research literature has focused largely on the cost of capturing CO2, with the implicit assumption that storage options would be relatively cheap, plentiful and located in close proximity to future CO2 point sources. However, CO2 capture and storage will take place at the local and regional scale and will compete with other mitigation options that also exhibit local or regional differences. This paper provides an initial examination of the implications of regionally disaggregated demand for and supply of CO2 storage reservoirs within the context of a globally disaggregated, long-term analysis of both the geology and economics of CCS. This analysis suggests that some regions will see their ability to deploy CCS systems constrained by a lack of quality target reservoirs relative to the demand for storage placed upon these candidate geologic storage reservoirs by large stationary CO2 point sources within the region. Other regions appear to have sufficient storage capacity to easily carry them into the 22nd century. We examined the regional and global economic implications of the distribution of these sources and sinks in meeting various potential limits to atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This analysis confirms that CCS is an important potential response to climate change throughout the 21st century and a technology that can play a key role in controlling the cost of addressing climate change.

  19. Global Climate Change Impacts & Activities

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... 37 B. Reduce painting booth air flow IAW NFPA 91. 10% TR 0.18 1.19 0.12 20,000 ... 1.88 3.17 550,000 Sub-Total 1.23 7.99 3.97 690,000 Major Kaizens 1. Steam ...

  20. Adaptation strategies for health impacts of climate change in Western Australia: Application of a Health Impact Assessment framework

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Spickett, Jeffery T.; Brown, Helen L.; Katscherian, Dianne

    2011-04-15

    Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing the globe and there is substantial evidence that this will result in a number of health impacts, regardless of the level of greenhouse gas mitigation. It is therefore apparent that a combined approach of mitigation and adaptation will be required to protect public health. While the importance of mitigation is recognised, this project focused on the role of adaptation strategies in addressing the potential health impacts of climate change. The nature and magnitude of these health impacts will be determined by a number of parameters that are dependent upon the location. Firstly, climate change will vary between regions. Secondly, the characteristics of each region in terms of population and the ability to adapt to changes will greatly influence the extent of the health impacts that are experienced now and into the future. Effective adaptation measures therefore need to be developed with these differences in mind. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used to consider the implications of climate change on the health of the population of Western Australia (WA) and to develop a range of adaptive responses suited to WA. A broad range of stakeholders participated in the HIA process, providing informed input into developing an understanding of the potential health impacts and potential adaptation strategies from a diverse sector perspective. Potential health impacts were identified in relation to climate change predictions in WA in the year 2030. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed using a qualitative process that considered the consequences and the likelihood of the health impact occurring. Adaptations were then developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by Government for future decision making. The periodic application of a HIA framework is seen as an ideal tool to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to

  1. Global Assessment of Hydrogen Technologies – Task 5 Report Use of Fuel Cell Technology in Electric Power Generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fouad, Fouad H.; Peters, Robert W.; Sisiopiku, Virginia P.; Sullivan Andrew J.; Ahluwalia, Rajesh K.

    2007-12-01

    The purpose of this work was to assess the performance of high temperature membranes and observe the impact of different parameters, such as water-to-carbon ratio, carbon formation, hydrogen formation, efficiencies, methane formation, fuel and oxidant utilization, sulfur reduction, and the thermal efficiency/electrical efficiency relationship, on fuel cell performance. A 250 KW PEM fuel cell model was simulated [in conjunction with Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) with the help of the fuel cell computer software model (GCtool)] which would be used to produce power of 250 kW and also produce steam at 120oC that can be used for industrial applications. The performance of the system was examined by estimating the various electrical and thermal efficiencies achievable, and by assessing the effect of supply water temperature, process water temperature, and pressure on thermal performance. It was concluded that increasing the fuel utilization increases the electrical efficiency but decreases the thermal efficiency. The electrical and thermal efficiencies are optimum at ~85% fuel utilization. The low temperature membrane (70oC) is unsuitable for generating high-grade heat suitable for useful cogeneration. The high temperature fuel cells are capable of producing steam through 280oC that can be utilized for industrial applications. Increasing the supply water temperature reduces the efficiency of the radiator. Increasing the supply water temperature beyond the dew point temperature decreases the thermal efficiency with the corresponding decrease in high-grade heat utilization. Increasing the steam pressure decreases the thermal efficiency. The environmental impacts of fuel cell use depend upon the source of the hydrogen rich fuel used. By using pure hydrogen, fuel cells have virtually no emissions except water. Hydrogen is rarely used due to problems with storage and transportation, but in the future, the growth of a “solar hydrogen economy” has been projected

  2. Global Carbon Budget 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Canadell, J. G.; Sitch, S.; Korsbakken, J. I.; Friedlingstein, P.; Peters, G. P.; Andres, R. J.; Boden, T. A.; Houghton, R. A.; House, J. I.; Keeling, R. F.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Barbero, L.; Bopp, L.; Chang, J.; Chevallier, F.; Chini, L. P.; Ciais, P.; Fader, M.; Gkritzalis, T.; Harris, I.; Hauck, J.; Ilyina, T.; Jain, A. K.; Kato, E.; Kitidis, V.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Landschützer, P.; Lauvset, S. K.; Lefèvre, N.; Lenton, A.; Lima, I. D.; Metzl, N.; Millero, F.; Munro, D. R.; Murata, A.; Nabel, J. E. M. S.; Nakaoka, S.; Nojiri, Y.; O'Brien, K.; Olsen, A.; Ono, T.; Pérez, F. F.; Pfeil, B.; Pierrot, D.; Poulter, B.; Rehder, G.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Schuster, U.; Schwinger, J.; Séférian, R.; Steinhoff, T.; Stocker, B. D.; Sutton, A. J.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; van Heuven, S.; Vandemark, D.; Viovy, N.; Wiltshire, A.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.

    2015-12-07

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We also discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. Moreover, the mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three

  3. Global Carbon Budget 2015

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Canadell, J. G.; Sitch, S.; Korsbakken, J. I.; Friedlingstein, P.; Peters, G. P.; Andres, R. J.; Boden, T. A.; et al

    2015-12-07

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We also discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology andmore » data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. Moreover, the mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each

  4. Assessment of boreal forest historical C dynamics in Yukon River Basin: relative roles of warming and fire regime change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yuan, Fengming [ORNL; Yi, Shuhua [Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, CAS; McGuire, A. David [University of Alaska; Johnson, Kristopher D [University of Alaska, Fairbanks; Liang, Jingjing [University of Alaska, Fairbanks; Harden, Jennifer [USGS, Menlo Park, CA; Kasischke, Eric S. [University of Maryland, College Park; Kurz, Werner [Canadian Forest Service

    2012-01-01

    Carbon (C) dynamics of boreal forest ecosystems have substantial implications for efforts to mitigate the rise of atmospheric CO2 and may be substantially influenced by warming and changing wildfire regimes. In this study we applied a large-scale ecosystem model that included dynamics of organic soil horizons and soil organic matter characteristics of multiple pools to assess forest C stock changes of the Yukon River Basin (YRB) in Alaska, USA, and Canada from 1960 through 2006, a period characterized by substantial climate warming and increases in wildfire. The model was calibrated for major forests with data from long-term research sites and evaluated using a forest inventory database. The regional assessment indicates that forest vegetation C storage increased by 46 Tg C, but that total soil C storage did not change appreciably during this period. However, further analysis suggests that C has been continuously lost from the mineral soil horizon since warming began in the 1970s, but has increased in the amorphous organic soil horizon. Based on a factorial experiment, soil C stocks would have increased by 158 Tg C if the YRB had not undergone warming and changes in fire regime. The analysis also identified that warming and changes in fire regime were approximately equivalent in their effects on soil C storage, and interactions between these two suggests that the loss of organic horizon thickness associated with increases in wildfire made deeper soil C stocks more vulnerable to loss via decomposition. Subbasin analyses indicate that C stock changes were primarily sensitive to the fraction of burned forest area within each subbasin and that boreal forest ecosystems in the YRB are currently transitioning from being sinks to sources at ;0.7% annual area burned. We conclude that it is important for international mitigation efforts focused on controlling atmospheric CO2 to consider how climate warming and changes in fire regime may concurrently affect the CO2 sink

  5. Impact of WRF Physics and Grid Resolution on Low-level Wind Prediction: Towards the Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Future Wind Power

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chin, H S; Glascoe, L; Lundquist, J; Wharton, S

    2010-02-24

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used in short-range simulations to explore the sensitivity of model physics and horizontal grid resolution. We choose five events with the clear-sky conditions to study the impact of different planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface and soil-layer physics on low-level wind forecast for two wind farms; one in California (CA) and the other in Texas (TX). Short-range simulations are validated with field measurements. Results indicate that the forecast error of the CA case decreases with increasing grid resolution due to the improved representation of valley winds. Besides, the model physics configuration has a significant impact on the forecast error at this location. In contrast, the forecast error of the TX case exhibits little dependence on grid resolution and is relatively independent of physics configuration. Therefore, the occurrence frequency of lowest root mean square errors (RMSEs) at this location is used to determine an optimal model configuration for subsequent decade-scale regional climate model (RCM) simulations. In this study, we perform two sets of 20-year RCM simulations using the data from the NCAR Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations; one set models the present climate and the other simulates the future climate. These RCM simulations will be used to assess the impact of climate change on future wind energy.

  6. Rapid Small-Signal Stability Assessment and Enhancement Following Changes in Topology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Saric, AT; Stankovic, AM

    2015-05-01

    The paper proposes a scalable and tractable algorithm for dynamic topology optimization of power systems involving changes in branch on/off status, while respecting small-signal stability (SSS) constraints. A procedure for fast updates of the system matrices (in descriptor form) and without additional full matrix inversions is proposed. To additionally reduce the computation time, only critical eigenvalues (right-most or those in a specified damping ratio and frequency range) are calculated. A quadratic optimization approach is proposed for optimized generation re-dispatch to satisfy SSS constraints. The approach is applied to two (medium- and large-scale) real-world test power systems.

  7. Global Climate & Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CRF_climatechange Permalink Gallery Understanding Hazardous Combustion Byproducts Reduces Factors Impacting Climate Change CRF, Global Climate & Energy, News, News & Events, Transportation Energy Understanding Hazardous Combustion Byproducts Reduces Factors Impacting Climate Change By Micheal Padilla Researchers at Sandia's Combustion Research Facility are developing the understanding necessary to build cleaner combustion technologies that will in turn reduce climate impact. Their work

  8. Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Deng, Yi

    2014-11-24

    DOE-GTRC-05596 11/24/2104 Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate PI: Dr. Yi Deng (PI) School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology 404-385-1821, yi.deng@eas.gatech.edu El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Annular Modes (AMs) represent respectively the most important modes of low frequency variability in the tropical and extratropical circulations. The projection of future changes in the ENSO and AM variability, however, remains highly uncertain with the state-of-the-science climate models. This project conducted a process-resolving, quantitative evaluations of the ENSO and AM variability in the modern reanalysis observations and in climate model simulations. The goal is to identify and understand the sources of uncertainty and biases in models’ representation of ENSO and AM variability. Using a feedback analysis method originally formulated by one of the collaborative PIs, we partitioned the 3D atmospheric temperature anomalies and surface temperature anomalies associated with ENSO and AM variability into components linked to 1) radiation-related thermodynamic processes such as cloud and water vapor feedbacks, 2) local dynamical processes including convection and turbulent/diffusive energy transfer and 3) non-local dynamical processes such as the horizontal energy transport in the oceans and atmosphere. In the past 4 years, the research conducted at Georgia Tech under the support of this project has led to 15 peer-reviewed publications and 9 conference/workshop presentations. Two graduate students and one postdoctoral fellow also received research training through participating the project activities. This final technical report summarizes key scientific discoveries we made and provides also a list of all publications and conference presentations resulted from research activities at Georgia Tech. The main findings include

  9. ARM - Climate Change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Climate Change A Student's Guide to Global Climate Change ...

  10. Global Solutions

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Global Solutions Our Vision National User Facilities Research Areas In Focus Global Solutions ⇒ Navigate Section Our Vision National User Facilities Research Areas In Focus Global Solutions A-Z Index Berkeley Lab masthead U.S. Department of Energy logo Phone Book Jobs Search BANGLADESH INDIA CHINA DAYA BAY CHINA RUSSIA SIBERIA JAPAN SAMOA HAWAII SOUTH POLE ANTARCTICA NEW MEXICO SOUTH DAKOTA TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO NEW YORK PUERTO RICO AMAZON RAIN FOREST CANARY ISLANDS SWITZERLAND ETHIOPIA

  11. Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Assessment of the Surveillance Program of the High-Level Waste Storage Tanks at Hanford :.~I LALI i~E REJ 163 ROOM 1t 4 F77L.~ ~ -_77 .:earmn OfEeg Asitn Sertr fo niomn 4 z. r _________ rment of the Surveilance Prograrn of the High-Level Storage- Tanks at Hanford P. E WOOD Robert J. Catln, Deputy Directat - Office of Environmental Compliance and Overview Office of Environment MARCH 1980 Report to the U.S. Departrent of Energy Assistant Secretary for Environment Washkngon, DC C March 27, 1980

  12. An assessment of possible climate change in the Australian region based on intercomparison of general circulation modeling results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whetton, P.H.; Pittock, A.B.; Haylock, M.R. ); Rayner, P.J. )

    1994-03-01

    To assist in estimating likely future climate change in the Australian region, the authors examine the results of four different general circulation modeling experiments run to assess the equilibrium impact of doubling greenhouse gases. The results examined were the most recent available at the time of study from various research centers in North America and Europe, as well as those of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). The approach used is, first, to assess the quality of the control (1 x CO[sub 2]) simulations from each of the models of mean sea level (MSL) pressure and precipitation in the Australian region by comparing these with the corresponding observed patterns; and, second, to then analyze the 2 x CO[sub 2] results of only those model experiments with the best control simulations. Of the models examined two are chosen on the basis of their simulation of current climate in the region: the CSIRO four-level model (CSIRO4) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) model. For conditions of equivalent doubling of CO[sub 2], both models show substantial increases in surface air temperature of around 4[degrees]-6[degrees] inland and 2[degrees]-4[degrees]C in coastal regions. Both models show decreased MSL pressure over the Australian continent and increases in rainfall over northern, central, and eastern Australia, particularly in the summer half of the year. The CSIRO4 model, but not the UKMO model, also shows increased pressure to the south of the continent and decreased winter rainfall in southwest and southern Australia. Generally, field significance tests show the pattern and magnitude of the changes to be significant of CSIRO4 (for which the necessary monthly simulated data were available). 42 refs., 20 figs., 5 tabs.

  13. Assessing

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    dental disease in minutes Understanding climate change Keeping watch on the world SPRING 2007 S A N D I A T E C H N O L O G Y A Q UA RT E R LY R E S E A R C H & D E V E LO P M E N T MAG A Z I N E - VO LUM E 9 , N O. 1 Sandia Technology (ISSN: 1547-5190) is a quarterly maga- zine published by Sandia National Laboratories. Sandia is a multiprogram engineering and science laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin company, for the Department of Energy. With main facilities in

  14. (Managing the global environment)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rayner, S.F.

    1989-10-03

    The conference was stimulated by concern that policy makers increasingly have to make environmental management decisions in the absence of solidly established scientific consensus about ecological processes and the consequences of human actions. Often, as in the case of climate change, some decisions may have to be made in the absence of information that is desirable but may not be available for years to come, if ever. Six topics were identified as running throughout the Congress. These were: the epistemology and history of the sciences or disciplines concerned with the environment, including the scientific basis of rationality and modes of dealing with uncertainty and complexity; the social, economic, and institutional conditions for the production of knowledge bearing on the environment, including the politics of research and the improvement of scientific data; the structuring and institutionalization of expert assessments on national and international levels, including the global distribution of expertise; the means of establishing scientific information, the role of the media in transmitting and processing knowledge about the environment, and the organization of public environmental debate; and decision making and management under conditions of uncertainty; and, finally the relationship between science and ethics. 13 refs.

  15. Human choice and climate change. Four volume set

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rayner, S.; Malone, E.L.

    1997-12-31

    The four-volume set assesses social science research relevant to global climate change from a wide-ranging interdisciplinary perspective. Taking human choice within social institutions as the starting point, noted researchers examine climate change issues in the context of societal issues such as population and consumption; cultural, institutional, and economic arrangements for human well-being; and the social processes by which decisions are made from local to global levels. This four-volume assessment is intended to complement the work of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

  16. Toward Robust Climate Baselining: Objective Assessment of Climate Change Using Widely Distributed Miniaturized Sensors for Accurate World-Wide Geophysical Measurements

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Teller, E.; Leith, C.; Canavan, G.; Marion, J.; Wood, L.

    2001-11-13

    A gap-free, world-wide, ocean-, atmosphere-, and land surface-spanning geophysical data-set of three decades time-duration containing the full set of geophysical parameters characterizing global weather is the scientific perquisite for defining the climate; the generally-accepted definition in the meteorological community is that climate is the 30-year running-average of weather. Until such a tridecadal climate baseline exists, climate change discussions inevitably will have a semi-speculative, vs. a purely scientific, character, as the baseline against which changes are referenced will at least somewhat uncertain.

  17. Mind the gap in SEA: An institutional perspective on why assessment of synergies amongst climate change mitigation, adaptation and other policy areas are missing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vammen Larsen, Sanne; Kornov, Lone; Wejs, Anja

    2012-02-15

    This article takes its point of departure in two approaches to integrating climate change into Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA): Mitigation and adaptation, and in the fact that these, as well as the synergies between them and other policy areas, are needed as part of an integrated assessment and policy response. First, the article makes a review of how positive and negative synergies between a) climate change mitigation and adaptation and b) climate change and other environmental concerns are integrated into Danish SEA practice. Then, the article discusses the implications of not addressing synergies. Finally, the article explores institutional explanations as to why synergies are not addressed in SEA practice. A document analysis of 149 Danish SEA reports shows that only one report comprises the assessment of synergies between mitigation and adaptation, whilst 9,4% of the reports assess the synergies between climate change and other environmental concerns. The consequences of separation are both the risk of trade-offs and missed opportunities for enhancing positive synergies. In order to propose explanations for the lacking integration, the institutional background is analysed and discussed, mainly based on Scott's theory of institutions. The institutional analysis highlights a regulatory element, since the assessment of climate change synergies is underpinned by legislation, but not by guidance. This means that great focus is on normative elements such as the local interpretation of legislation and of climate change mitigation and adaptation. The analysis also focuses on how the fragmentation of the organisation in which climate change and SEA are embedded has bearings on both normative and cultural-cognitive elements. This makes the assessment of synergies challenging. The evidence gathered and presented in the article points to a need for developing the SEA process and methodology in Denmark with the aim to include climate change in the assessments in a

  18. Burkina Faso-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  19. Global Timber Market and Forestry Data Project | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    data has been used in analysis should visit the Forests, Economics and Global Climate Change website." References "Global Timber Market and Forestry Data Project" Retrieved...

  20. Djibouti-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  1. Central African Republic-National Adaptation Plan Global Support...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  2. Niger-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  3. Rwanda-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  4. Lesotho-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  5. Liberia-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  6. Malawi-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  7. Comoros-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  8. Tanzania-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme (NAP...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  9. Bangladesh-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...

  10. The Gambia-National Adaptation Plan Global Support Programme...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Water Partnership (GWP), German Society for International Cooperation...